{
  "meta": {
    "updated": "2026-06-06T15:34:08.966713Z",
    "cycle": 2026,
    "source": "Google Sheets",
    "republican_seats": 217,
    "democrat_seats": 218,
    "house_control_projection": "D",
    "majority_threshold": 218,
    "battleground_seats": 10,
    "projected_flips": 31,
    "monte_carlo": {
      "simulations": 10000,
      "expected_r_seats": 219.0,
      "prob_r_majority": 52.5,
      "r_seats_p5": 184,
      "r_seats_p50": 219,
      "r_seats_p95": 254,
      "model_type": "national_swing + local_variance"
    },
    "tipping_point": "AZ-01",
    "tipping_point_data": {
      "district": "AZ-01",
      "gop_win_chance": 48.0,
      "rating": "Tossup",
      "favored_party": "D",
      "margin_to_50": 2.0,
      "gop_margin_2024": 3.8
    },
    "most_volatile_races": [
      "AZ-01",
      "NJ-07",
      "TX-34",
      "IA-03",
      "WI-03",
      "CA-22",
      "PA-10",
      "MI-10",
      "NY-17",
      "PA-08"
    ]
  },
  "states": {
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      "R": 1,
      "D": 0,
      "battleground": 0,
      "total": 1
    },
    "AL": {
      "R": 6,
      "D": 1,
      "battleground": 0,
      "total": 7
    },
    "AR": {
      "R": 4,
      "D": 0,
      "battleground": 0,
      "total": 4
    },
    "AZ": {
      "R": 4,
      "D": 5,
      "battleground": 1,
      "total": 9
    },
    "CA": {
      "R": 4,
      "D": 48,
      "battleground": 1,
      "total": 52
    },
    "CO": {
      "R": 3,
      "D": 5,
      "battleground": 0,
      "total": 8
    },
    "CT": {
      "R": 0,
      "D": 5,
      "battleground": 0,
      "total": 5
    },
    "DE": {
      "R": 0,
      "D": 1,
      "battleground": 0,
      "total": 1
    },
    "FL": {
      "R": 24,
      "D": 4,
      "battleground": 0,
      "total": 28
    },
    "GA": {
      "R": 9,
      "D": 5,
      "battleground": 0,
      "total": 14
    },
    "HI": {
      "R": 0,
      "D": 2,
      "battleground": 0,
      "total": 2
    },
    "IA": {
      "R": 2,
      "D": 2,
      "battleground": 1,
      "total": 4
    },
    "ID": {
      "R": 2,
      "D": 0,
      "battleground": 0,
      "total": 2
    },
    "IL": {
      "R": 3,
      "D": 14,
      "battleground": 0,
      "total": 17
    },
    "IN": {
      "R": 7,
      "D": 2,
      "battleground": 0,
      "total": 9
    },
    "KS": {
      "R": 3,
      "D": 1,
      "battleground": 0,
      "total": 4
    },
    "KY": {
      "R": 5,
      "D": 1,
      "battleground": 0,
      "total": 6
    },
    "LA": {
      "R": 5,
      "D": 1,
      "battleground": 0,
      "total": 6
    },
    "MA": {
      "R": 0,
      "D": 9,
      "battleground": 0,
      "total": 9
    },
    "MD": {
      "R": 1,
      "D": 7,
      "battleground": 0,
      "total": 8
    },
    "ME": {
      "R": 1,
      "D": 1,
      "battleground": 0,
      "total": 2
    },
    "MI": {
      "R": 6,
      "D": 7,
      "battleground": 1,
      "total": 13
    },
    "MN": {
      "R": 4,
      "D": 4,
      "battleground": 0,
      "total": 8
    },
    "MO": {
      "R": 7,
      "D": 1,
      "battleground": 0,
      "total": 8
    },
    "MS": {
      "R": 3,
      "D": 1,
      "battleground": 0,
      "total": 4
    },
    "MT": {
      "R": 2,
      "D": 0,
      "battleground": 0,
      "total": 2
    },
    "NC": {
      "R": 11,
      "D": 3,
      "battleground": 0,
      "total": 14
    },
    "ND": {
      "R": 1,
      "D": 0,
      "battleground": 0,
      "total": 1
    },
    "NE": {
      "R": 2,
      "D": 1,
      "battleground": 0,
      "total": 3
    },
    "NH": {
      "R": 0,
      "D": 2,
      "battleground": 0,
      "total": 2
    },
    "NJ": {
      "R": 2,
      "D": 10,
      "battleground": 1,
      "total": 12
    },
    "NM": {
      "R": 0,
      "D": 3,
      "battleground": 0,
      "total": 3
    },
    "NV": {
      "R": 1,
      "D": 3,
      "battleground": 0,
      "total": 4
    },
    "NY": {
      "R": 7,
      "D": 19,
      "battleground": 1,
      "total": 26
    },
    "OH": {
      "R": 11,
      "D": 4,
      "battleground": 0,
      "total": 15
    },
    "OK": {
      "R": 5,
      "D": 0,
      "battleground": 0,
      "total": 5
    },
    "OR": {
      "R": 1,
      "D": 5,
      "battleground": 0,
      "total": 6
    },
    "PA": {
      "R": 8,
      "D": 9,
      "battleground": 2,
      "total": 17
    },
    "RI": {
      "R": 0,
      "D": 2,
      "battleground": 0,
      "total": 2
    },
    "SC": {
      "R": 6,
      "D": 1,
      "battleground": 0,
      "total": 7
    },
    "SD": {
      "R": 1,
      "D": 0,
      "battleground": 0,
      "total": 1
    },
    "TN": {
      "R": 9,
      "D": 0,
      "battleground": 0,
      "total": 9
    },
    "TX": {
      "R": 28,
      "D": 10,
      "battleground": 1,
      "total": 38
    },
    "UT": {
      "R": 3,
      "D": 1,
      "battleground": 0,
      "total": 4
    },
    "VA": {
      "R": 4,
      "D": 7,
      "battleground": 0,
      "total": 11
    },
    "VT": {
      "R": 0,
      "D": 1,
      "battleground": 0,
      "total": 1
    },
    "WA": {
      "R": 2,
      "D": 8,
      "battleground": 0,
      "total": 10
    },
    "WI": {
      "R": 6,
      "D": 2,
      "battleground": 1,
      "total": 8
    },
    "WV": {
      "R": 2,
      "D": 0,
      "battleground": 0,
      "total": 2
    },
    "WY": {
      "R": 1,
      "D": 0,
      "battleground": 0,
      "total": 1
    }
  },
  "districts": {
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      "district": "AK-AL",
      "state": "AK",
      "district_number": "AL",
      "incumbent_party": "R",
      "incumbent_name": "Begich, Nick",
      "nominated_person": null,
      "photo": "https://americafirstinsight.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/05/BegichIcon.webp",
      "open_seat": false,
      "favored_party": "R",
      "gop_win_chance": 76.0,
      "rating_tier": "likely_r",
      "rating": "Likely Republican",
      "projected_flip": false,
      "flip_direction": null,
      "category": "Safe",
      "color": "#d9312b",
      "updated": "2026-06-06T15:34:08.966713Z",
      "trump_margin_2024": 13.13,
      "gop_margin_2024": 2.6,
      "redraw": false,
      "margin_change": 73.4
    },
    "AL-01": {
      "district": "AL-01",
      "state": "AL",
      "district_number": "01",
      "incumbent_party": "R",
      "incumbent_name": "Moore, Barry",
      "nominated_person": null,
      "photo": "https://americafirstinsight.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/03/GenericR.webp",
      "open_seat": true,
      "favored_party": "R",
      "gop_win_chance": 95.0,
      "rating_tier": "safe_r",
      "rating": "Safe Republican",
      "projected_flip": false,
      "flip_direction": null,
      "category": "Safe",
      "color": "#a21a15",
      "updated": "2026-06-06T15:34:08.966713Z",
      "trump_margin_2024": 55.0,
      "gop_margin_2024": 57.0,
      "redraw": false,
      "margin_change": 38.0
    },
    "AL-02": {
      "district": "AL-02",
      "state": "AL",
      "district_number": "02",
      "incumbent_party": "D",
      "incumbent_name": "Figures, Shomari",
      "nominated_person": null,
      "photo": "https://americafirstinsight.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/05/FiguresIcon.webp",
      "open_seat": false,
      "favored_party": "R",
      "gop_win_chance": 92.0,
      "rating_tier": "safe_r",
      "rating": "Safe Republican",
      "projected_flip": true,
      "flip_direction": "D-to-R",
      "category": "Safe",
      "color": "#a21a15",
      "updated": "2026-06-06T15:34:08.966713Z",
      "trump_margin_2024": -8.0,
      "gop_margin_2024": -9.2,
      "redraw": false,
      "margin_change": 101.2
    },
    "AL-03": {
      "district": "AL-03",
      "state": "AL",
      "district_number": "03",
      "incumbent_party": "R",
      "incumbent_name": "Rogers, Mike",
      "nominated_person": null,
      "photo": "https://americafirstinsight.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/05/MIkeRogers.webp",
      "open_seat": false,
      "favored_party": "R",
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      "rating_tier": "safe_r",
      "rating": "Safe Republican",
      "projected_flip": false,
      "flip_direction": null,
      "category": "Safe",
      "color": "#a21a15",
      "updated": "2026-06-06T15:34:08.966713Z",
      "trump_margin_2024": 47.0,
      "gop_margin_2024": 100.0,
      "redraw": false,
      "margin_change": -1.0
    },
    "AL-04": {
      "district": "AL-04",
      "state": "AL",
      "district_number": "04",
      "incumbent_party": "R",
      "incumbent_name": "Aderholt, Robert",
      "nominated_person": null,
      "photo": "https://americafirstinsight.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/05/Aderholt.webp",
      "open_seat": false,
      "favored_party": "R",
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      "rating_tier": "safe_r",
      "rating": "Safe Republican",
      "projected_flip": false,
      "flip_direction": null,
      "category": "Safe",
      "color": "#a21a15",
      "updated": "2026-06-06T15:34:08.966713Z",
      "trump_margin_2024": 67.0,
      "gop_margin_2024": 100.0,
      "redraw": false,
      "margin_change": -1.0
    },
    "AL-05": {
      "district": "AL-05",
      "state": "AL",
      "district_number": "05",
      "incumbent_party": "R",
      "incumbent_name": "Strong, Dale",
      "nominated_person": null,
      "photo": "https://americafirstinsight.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/05/StrongIcon.webp",
      "open_seat": false,
      "favored_party": "R",
      "gop_win_chance": 99.0,
      "rating_tier": "safe_r",
      "rating": "Safe Republican",
      "projected_flip": false,
      "flip_direction": null,
      "category": "Safe",
      "color": "#a21a15",
      "updated": "2026-06-06T15:34:08.966713Z",
      "trump_margin_2024": 29.0,
      "gop_margin_2024": 100.0,
      "redraw": false,
      "margin_change": -1.0
    },
    "AL-06": {
      "district": "AL-06",
      "state": "AL",
      "district_number": "06",
      "incumbent_party": "R",
      "incumbent_name": "Palmer, Gary",
      "nominated_person": null,
      "photo": "https://americafirstinsight.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/05/PalmerIcon.webp",
      "open_seat": false,
      "favored_party": "R",
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      "rating_tier": "safe_r",
      "rating": "Safe Republican",
      "projected_flip": false,
      "flip_direction": null,
      "category": "Safe",
      "color": "#a21a15",
      "updated": "2026-06-06T15:34:08.966713Z",
      "trump_margin_2024": 39.0,
      "gop_margin_2024": 40.8,
      "redraw": false,
      "margin_change": 58.2
    },
    "AL-07": {
      "district": "AL-07",
      "state": "AL",
      "district_number": "07",
      "incumbent_party": "D",
      "incumbent_name": "Sewell, Terri",
      "nominated_person": null,
      "photo": "https://americafirstinsight.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/05/SewellIcon.webp",
      "open_seat": false,
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      "rating_tier": "safe_d",
      "rating": "Safe Democrat",
      "projected_flip": false,
      "flip_direction": null,
      "category": "Safe",
      "color": "#0f4b8f",
      "updated": "2026-06-06T15:34:08.966713Z",
      "trump_margin_2024": -24.0,
      "gop_margin_2024": -27.4,
      "redraw": false,
      "margin_change": 28.4
    },
    "AR-01": {
      "district": "AR-01",
      "state": "AR",
      "district_number": "01",
      "incumbent_party": "R",
      "incumbent_name": "Crawford, Eric",
      "nominated_person": null,
      "photo": "https://americafirstinsight.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/05/CrawfordIcon.webp",
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      "projected_flip": false,
      "flip_direction": null,
      "category": "Safe",
      "color": "#a21a15",
      "updated": "2026-06-06T15:34:08.966713Z",
      "trump_margin_2024": 46.0,
      "gop_margin_2024": 48.9,
      "redraw": false,
      "margin_change": 50.1
    },
    "AR-02": {
      "district": "AR-02",
      "state": "AR",
      "district_number": "02",
      "incumbent_party": "R",
      "incumbent_name": "Hill, J. French",
      "nominated_person": null,
      "photo": "https://americafirstinsight.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/03/Hill.webp",
      "open_seat": false,
      "favored_party": "R",
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      "rating_tier": "safe_r",
      "rating": "Safe Republican",
      "projected_flip": false,
      "flip_direction": null,
      "category": "Safe",
      "color": "#a21a15",
      "updated": "2026-06-06T15:34:08.966713Z",
      "trump_margin_2024": 16.0,
      "gop_margin_2024": 17.8,
      "redraw": false,
      "margin_change": 76.2
    },
    "AR-03": {
      "district": "AR-03",
      "state": "AR",
      "district_number": "03",
      "incumbent_party": "R",
      "incumbent_name": "Womack, Steve",
      "nominated_person": null,
      "photo": "https://americafirstinsight.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/05/WomackIcon.webp",
      "open_seat": false,
      "favored_party": "R",
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      "rating_tier": "safe_r",
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      "projected_flip": false,
      "flip_direction": null,
      "category": "Safe",
      "color": "#a21a15",
      "updated": "2026-06-06T15:34:08.966713Z",
      "trump_margin_2024": 25.0,
      "gop_margin_2024": 32.0,
      "redraw": false,
      "margin_change": 67.0
    },
    "AR-04": {
      "district": "AR-04",
      "state": "AR",
      "district_number": "04",
      "incumbent_party": "R",
      "incumbent_name": "Westerman, Bruce",
      "nominated_person": null,
      "photo": "https://americafirstinsight.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/05/WestermanIcon.webp",
      "open_seat": false,
      "favored_party": "R",
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      "rating_tier": "safe_r",
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      "projected_flip": false,
      "flip_direction": null,
      "category": "Safe",
      "color": "#a21a15",
      "updated": "2026-06-06T15:34:08.966713Z",
      "trump_margin_2024": 40.0,
      "gop_margin_2024": 45.8,
      "redraw": false,
      "margin_change": 53.2
    },
    "AZ-01": {
      "district": "AZ-01",
      "state": "AZ",
      "district_number": "01",
      "incumbent_party": "R",
      "incumbent_name": "Schweikert, David",
      "nominated_person": null,
      "photo": "https://americafirstinsight.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/03/GenericR.webp",
      "open_seat": true,
      "favored_party": "D",
      "gop_win_chance": 48.0,
      "rating_tier": "tossup",
      "rating": "Tossup",
      "projected_flip": true,
      "flip_direction": "R-to-D",
      "category": "Battleground",
      "color": "#593352",
      "updated": "2026-06-06T15:34:08.966713Z",
      "trump_margin_2024": 3.0,
      "gop_margin_2024": 3.8,
      "redraw": false,
      "margin_change": 44.2
    },
    "AZ-02": {
      "district": "AZ-02",
      "state": "AZ",
      "district_number": "02",
      "incumbent_party": "R",
      "incumbent_name": "Crane, Elijah",
      "nominated_person": null,
      "photo": "https://americafirstinsight.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/05/CraneIcon.webp",
      "open_seat": false,
      "favored_party": "R",
      "gop_win_chance": 80.0,
      "rating_tier": "likely_r",
      "rating": "Likely Republican",
      "projected_flip": false,
      "flip_direction": null,
      "category": "Safe",
      "color": "#d9312b",
      "updated": "2026-06-06T15:34:08.966713Z",
      "trump_margin_2024": 15.0,
      "gop_margin_2024": 9.0,
      "redraw": false,
      "margin_change": 71.0
    },
    "AZ-03": {
      "district": "AZ-03",
      "state": "AZ",
      "district_number": "03",
      "incumbent_party": "D",
      "incumbent_name": "Ansari, Yassamin",
      "nominated_person": null,
      "photo": "https://americafirstinsight.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/05/AnsariIcon.webp",
      "open_seat": false,
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      "gop_win_chance": 1.0,
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      "category": "Safe",
      "color": "#0f4b8f",
      "updated": "2026-06-06T15:34:08.966713Z",
      "trump_margin_2024": -40.0,
      "gop_margin_2024": -44.3,
      "redraw": false,
      "margin_change": 45.3
    },
    "AZ-04": {
      "district": "AZ-04",
      "state": "AZ",
      "district_number": "04",
      "incumbent_party": "D",
      "incumbent_name": "Stanton, Greg",
      "nominated_person": null,
      "photo": "https://americafirstinsight.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/05/StantonIcon.webp",
      "open_seat": false,
      "favored_party": "D",
      "gop_win_chance": 6.0,
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      "rating": "Safe Democrat",
      "projected_flip": false,
      "flip_direction": null,
      "category": "Safe",
      "color": "#0f4b8f",
      "updated": "2026-06-06T15:34:08.966713Z",
      "trump_margin_2024": -7.0,
      "gop_margin_2024": -7.2,
      "redraw": false,
      "margin_change": 13.2
    },
    "AZ-05": {
      "district": "AZ-05",
      "state": "AZ",
      "district_number": "05",
      "incumbent_party": "R",
      "incumbent_name": "Biggs, Andy",
      "nominated_person": null,
      "photo": "https://americafirstinsight.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/03/GenericR.webp",
      "open_seat": true,
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      "projected_flip": false,
      "flip_direction": null,
      "category": "Safe",
      "color": "#a21a15",
      "updated": "2026-06-06T15:34:08.966713Z",
      "trump_margin_2024": 20.0,
      "gop_margin_2024": 20.8,
      "redraw": false,
      "margin_change": 69.2
    },
    "AZ-06": {
      "district": "AZ-06",
      "state": "AZ",
      "district_number": "06",
      "incumbent_party": "R",
      "incumbent_name": "Ciscomani, Juan",
      "nominated_person": null,
      "photo": "https://americafirstinsight.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/05/CiscomaniIcon.webp",
      "open_seat": false,
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      "rating_tier": "lean_d",
      "rating": "Lean Democrat",
      "projected_flip": true,
      "flip_direction": "R-to-D",
      "category": "Safe",
      "color": "#669cda",
      "updated": "2026-06-06T15:34:08.966713Z",
      "trump_margin_2024": 1.0,
      "gop_margin_2024": 2.5,
      "redraw": false,
      "margin_change": 31.5
    },
    "AZ-07": {
      "district": "AZ-07",
      "state": "AZ",
      "district_number": "07",
      "incumbent_party": "D",
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