{
  "schema_version": 1,
  "product": "AFI VoteFlow Live Forecast",
  "model": "V6.2.2",
  "generated_at_utc": "2026-09-02T05:51:11Z",
  "source": {
    "race_url": "file:///var/www/html/Election2026/output/2026/MA/Governor/00/republican/",
    "snapshot": "72.json",
    "snapshot_timestamp": "2026-09-02T05:49:56.416Z",
    "votes_reported": 95096,
    "source_percent_reporting": 30.48,
    "estimated_vote_counted_pct": 30.48,
    "estimated_vote_counted_source": "source_reporting_conservative_fallback"
  },
  "forecast": {
    "leader": "Michael Roger Minogue",
    "runner_up": "Brian Shortsleeve",
    "probability_leader": "Michael Roger Minogue",
    "projected_margin_points": 51.97287476703987,
    "race_rating": "NEAR CERTAIN",
    "status": "DEVELOPING",
    "turning_point": false,
    "turning_point_candidate": null
  },
  "contention": {
    "min_candidates": 2,
    "enter_probability": 0.01,
    "exit_probability": 0.005,
    "exit_updates": 3,
    "max_candidates": 4
  },
  "candidates": [
    {
      "name": "Michael Roger Minogue",
      "party": "Republican",
      "color": "#7A1230",
      "current_votes": 72107,
      "current_share_points": 75.82548161857491,
      "projected_share_points": 75.83517998920047,
      "win_probability": 1.0,
      "win_probability_percent": 100.0,
      "contention_eligible": true,
      "contention_reason": "probability_threshold"
    },
    {
      "name": "Brian Shortsleeve",
      "party": "Republican",
      "color": "#6d1b83",
      "current_votes": 22700,
      "current_share_points": 23.870614957516615,
      "projected_share_points": 23.862305222160607,
      "win_probability": 0.0,
      "win_probability_percent": 0.0,
      "contention_eligible": true,
      "contention_reason": "minimum_two"
    },
    {
      "name": "Write-in",
      "party": "Republican",
      "color": "#808080",
      "current_votes": 289,
      "current_share_points": 0.3039034239084714,
      "projected_share_points": 0.30251478863891557,
      "win_probability": 0.0,
      "win_probability_percent": 0.0,
      "contention_eligible": false,
      "contention_reason": "below_threshold"
    }
  ],
  "diagnostics": {
    "maturity_stage": "serious",
    "maturity_source": "source_reporting_conservative_fallback",
    "reference_url": null,
    "reference_library": null,
    "monte_carlo_simulations": 1200,
    "model_confidence_internal": 0.7426543015083173,
    "model_confidence_public": false
  }
}