{"id":"PA-16","state":"PA","label":"Pennsylvania's 16th Congressional District","election_id":"87391","status":"called","winner_id":"civic-87391-d51bcd27822b3a61","reporting":52,"previous_party":"R","afi_rating":{"rating":"Safe Republican","rating_tier":"safe_r","category":"Safe","favored_party":"R","gop_win_chance":99,"color":"#a21a15","updated":"2026-08-05T16:27:15+00:00","projected_flip":false,"flip_direction":null,"incumbent_party":"R","incumbent_name":"Kelly, Mike","open_seat":false,"freshman":false,"flipped_in_24":false,"trump_margin_2024":23,"gop_margin_2024":27.2,"redraw":false,"margin_change":null,"source":"AFI Ratings Admin","source_updated":"2026-10-14T18:12:10+00:00"},"updated":"2026-10-15T15:36:57.011Z","candidates":[{"id":"civic-87391-d51bcd27822b3a61","name":"Mike Kelly","party":"R","votes":67881,"color":"#a21a15","photo_url":"https://americafirstinsight.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/03/GenericR.webp","source_name":"Mike Kelly","identity_aliases":[],"incumbent":false,"endorsed":false,"match_method":"exact","display_priority":0,"pct":51.80173992673993},{"id":"civic-87391-208bec9dd9cc2ca8","name":"Justin Wagner","party":"D","votes":63159,"color":"#0f4b8f","photo_url":"","source_name":"Justin Wagner","identity_aliases":[],"incumbent":false,"endorsed":false,"match_method":"exact","pct":48.19826007326007}],"featured_candidates":[{"id":"civic-87391-d51bcd27822b3a61","name":"Mike Kelly","party":"R","votes":67881,"color":"#a21a15","photo_url":"https://americafirstinsight.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/03/GenericR.webp","source_name":"Mike Kelly","identity_aliases":[],"incumbent":false,"endorsed":false,"match_method":"exact","display_priority":0,"pct":51.80173992673993},{"id":"civic-87391-208bec9dd9cc2ca8","name":"Justin Wagner","party":"D","votes":63159,"color":"#0f4b8f","photo_url":"","source_name":"Justin Wagner","identity_aliases":[],"incumbent":false,"endorsed":false,"match_method":"exact","pct":48.19826007326007}],"matching_review":[],"office":"house","election_type":"House of Representatives","county_data_status":"available","county_data_note":"","counties_updated":"2026-10-12T17:46:58.302Z","counties_stale":false,"counties_complete":false,"total_votes":131040,"winner_party":"R","leader_party":"R","leader_name":"Mike Kelly","leader_color":"#a21a15","vote_margin":4722,"margin":3.603479853479854,"counties_path":"shards/6aa6a330c68a2d1a5ea3d32907cc16ed5d4e70a08b4e9b3f6b26ba5bbd6e8405.json","counties":[{"name":"Butler","fips":"42019","reporting":6,"total_votes":164116,"leader":"Justin Wagner","candidates":[{"id":"civic-87391-208bec9dd9cc2ca8","name":"Justin Wagner","party":"D","color":"#0f4b8f","photo_url":"","votes":89315,"pct":54.42187233420264},{"id":"civic-87391-d51bcd27822b3a61","name":"Mike Kelly","party":"R","color":"#a21a15","photo_url":"https://americafirstinsight.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/03/GenericR.webp","votes":74801,"pct":45.57812766579736}]},{"name":"Crawford","fips":"42039","reporting":4,"total_votes":135189,"leader":"Justin Wagner","candidates":[{"id":"civic-87391-208bec9dd9cc2ca8","name":"Justin Wagner","party":"D","color":"#0f4b8f","photo_url":"","votes":94600,"pct":69.97610752354112},{"id":"civic-87391-d51bcd27822b3a61","name":"Mike Kelly","party":"R","color":"#a21a15","photo_url":"https://americafirstinsight.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/03/GenericR.webp","votes":40589,"pct":30.023892476458883}]},{"name":"Erie","fips":"42049","reporting":23,"total_votes":12095,"leader":"Justin Wagner","candidates":[{"id":"civic-87391-208bec9dd9cc2ca8","name":"Justin Wagner","party":"D","color":"#0f4b8f","photo_url":"","votes":7483,"pct":61.8685407193055},{"id":"civic-87391-d51bcd27822b3a61","name":"Mike Kelly","party":"R","color":"#a21a15","photo_url":"https://americafirstinsight.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/03/GenericR.webp","votes":4612,"pct":38.1314592806945}]},{"name":"Lawrence","fips":"42073","reporting":38,"total_votes":4355,"leader":"Mike Kelly","candidates":[{"id":"civic-87391-d51bcd27822b3a61","name":"Mike Kelly","party":"R","color":"#a21a15","photo_url":"https://americafirstinsight.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/03/GenericR.webp","votes":2320,"pct":53.272101033295066},{"id":"civic-87391-208bec9dd9cc2ca8","name":"Justin Wagner","party":"D","color":"#0f4b8f","photo_url":"","votes":2035,"pct":46.727898966704934}]},{"name":"Mercer","fips":"42085","reporting":69,"total_votes":20223,"leader":"Mike Kelly","candidates":[{"id":"civic-87391-d51bcd27822b3a61","name":"Mike Kelly","party":"R","color":"#a21a15","photo_url":"https://americafirstinsight.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/03/GenericR.webp","votes":10673,"pct":52.77654156158829},{"id":"civic-87391-208bec9dd9cc2ca8","name":"Justin Wagner","party":"D","color":"#0f4b8f","photo_url":"","votes":9550,"pct":47.22345843841171}]},{"name":"Venango","fips":"42121","reporting":34,"total_votes":114902,"leader":"Justin Wagner","candidates":[{"id":"civic-87391-208bec9dd9cc2ca8","name":"Justin Wagner","party":"D","color":"#0f4b8f","photo_url":"","votes":71616,"pct":62.32789681641747},{"id":"civic-87391-d51bcd27822b3a61","name":"Mike Kelly","party":"R","color":"#a21a15","photo_url":"https://americafirstinsight.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/03/GenericR.webp","votes":43286,"pct":37.67210318358253}]}]}