Best qualified pollsterQuantus Insights9.7-point average error
Completed primaries8Including separately scored runoffs
Pollster-race scores5339 standardized pollsters
Correct winner overall66.0%Across all usable final polls
Pollster rankings
Lower margin error is better. Only polls released within 60 days of the election qualify. Official rankings require at least 3 completed races; smaller samples remain visible as provisional. Click a pollster to see every qualifying call.
| # | Pollster | Scores | Round mix | Status | Avg. error | Median | Winner accuracy | Directional bias | Avg. days out |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Quantus Insights | 4 | Primary 1 · R1 1 · R2 2 | Official | 9.7 | 8.5 | 75.0% | Understated winners by 7.7 pts | 11.8 |
| 2 | Emerson | 5 | Primary 3 · R1 2 | Official | 12.3 | 15.0 | 60.0% | Understated winners by 6.3 pts | 17.2 |
| 3 | PPP | 1 | Primary 1 | Provisional | 0.3 | 0.3 | 100.0% | Understated winners by 0.3 pts | 6.0 |
| 4 | Susquehanna | 1 | Primary 1 | Provisional | 1.0 | 1.0 | 100.0% | Overstated winners by 1.0 pts | 52.0 |
| 5 | Kaplan Strategies | 1 | R2 1 | Provisional | 1.2 | 1.2 | 100.0% | Overstated winners by 1.2 pts | 32.0 |
| 6 | InsiderAdvantage | 1 | Primary 1 | Provisional | 2.1 | 2.1 | 100.0% | Overstated winners by 2.1 pts | 3.0 |
| 7 | J.L. Partners | 1 | R1 1 | Provisional | 2.2 | 2.2 | 0.0% | Understated winners by 2.2 pts | 28.0 |
| 8 | Impact Research | 1 | Primary 1 | Provisional | 2.3 | 2.3 | 100.0% | Understated winners by 2.3 pts | 19.0 |
| 9 | Harris, DeVille & Associates | 1 | R1 1 | Provisional | 3.5 | 3.5 | 100.0% | Understated winners by 3.5 pts | 58.0 |
| 10 | Harper Polling | 2 | R1 1 · R2 1 | Provisional | 4.2 | 4.2 | 50.0% | Understated winners by 2.0 pts | 47.0 |
| 11 | Opinion Diagnostics | 1 | R2 1 | Provisional | 4.8 | 4.8 | 100.0% | Overstated winners by 4.8 pts | 1.0 |
| 12 | YouGov | 2 | Primary 1 · R1 1 | Provisional | 6.0 | 6.0 | 50.0% | Overstated winners by 0.8 pts | 1.0 |
| 13 | Slingshot Strategies | 1 | Primary 1 | Provisional | 7.3 | 7.3 | 0.0% | Understated winners by 7.3 pts | 41.0 |
| 14 | Trafalgar Group | 1 | Primary 1 | Provisional | 7.9 | 7.9 | 100.0% | Understated winners by 7.9 pts | 2.0 |
| 15 | Glengariff Group Inc | 1 | Primary 1 | Provisional | 8.0 | 8.0 | 0.0% | Understated winners by 8.0 pts | 25.0 |
| 16 | McLaughlin & Associates | 1 | R1 1 | Provisional | 8.2 | 8.2 | 0.0% | Understated winners by 8.2 pts | 19.0 |
| 17 | Noble Predictive Insights | 1 | Primary 1 | Provisional | 8.7 | 8.7 | 100.0% | Understated winners by 8.7 pts | 20.0 |
| 18 | Pulse Decision Science | 1 | R1 1 | Provisional | 9.2 | 9.2 | 0.0% | Understated winners by 9.2 pts | 28.0 |
| 19 | Blueprint Polling | 2 | Primary 1 · R1 1 | Provisional | 9.4 | 9.4 | 50.0% | Understated winners by 3.8 pts | 7.0 |
| 20 | Tavern Research | 1 | Primary 1 | Provisional | 10.0 | 10.0 | 100.0% | Overstated winners by 10.0 pts | 9.0 |
| 21 | Victory Phone | 1 | R1 1 | Provisional | 10.2 | 10.2 | 0.0% | Understated winners by 10.2 pts | 6.0 |
| 22 | JMC Analytics | 2 | R2 2 | Provisional | 10.5 | 10.5 | 50.0% | Understated winners by 10.5 pts | 6.5 |
| 23 | Public Opinion Strategies | 1 | Primary 1 | Provisional | 10.7 | 10.7 | 100.0% | Understated winners by 10.7 pts | 14.0 |
| 24 | UpONE Insights | 1 | Primary 1 | Provisional | 10.7 | 10.7 | 100.0% | Understated winners by 10.7 pts | 8.0 |
| 25 | SoCal Strategies | 2 | Primary 1 · R2 1 | Provisional | 10.8 | 10.8 | 100.0% | Overstated winners by 5.2 pts | 5.5 |
| 26 | BDPC | 1 | R2 1 | Provisional | 11.8 | 11.8 | 100.0% | Understated winners by 11.8 pts | 11.0 |
| 27 | NextGen P | 1 | Primary 1 | Provisional | 12.7 | 12.7 | 100.0% | Understated winners by 12.7 pts | 34.0 |
| 28 | Mitchell Research & Communications | 1 | Primary 1 | Provisional | 13.0 | 13.0 | 100.0% | Overstated winners by 13.0 pts | 7.0 |
| 29 | University of Texas at Tyler | 2 | Primary 1 · R1 1 | Provisional | 13.1 | 13.1 | 50.0% | Understated winners by 11.2 pts | 9.0 |
| 30 | Peak Insights | 2 | R1 1 · R2 1 | Provisional | 14.9 | 14.9 | 0.0% | Understated winners by 14.9 pts | 14.5 |
| 31 | Global Strategy Group | 1 | R2 1 | Provisional | 15.6 | 15.6 | 100.0% | Understated winners by 15.6 pts | 15.0 |
| 32 | Remington Research Group | 1 | R2 1 | Provisional | 16.6 | 16.6 | 100.0% | Understated winners by 16.6 pts | 21.0 |
| 33 | Zenith Research | 1 | Primary 1 | Provisional | 17.0 | 17.0 | 100.0% | Overstated winners by 17.0 pts | 6.0 |
| 34 | Citadel | 1 | Primary 1 | Provisional | 17.9 | 17.9 | 100.0% | Understated winners by 17.9 pts | 9.0 |
| 35 | HIT Strategies | 1 | Primary 1 | Provisional | 19.3 | 19.3 | 0.0% | Understated winners by 19.3 pts | 47.0 |
| 36 | Texas Public Opinion Research | 1 | R2 1 | Provisional | 19.6 | 19.6 | 100.0% | Understated winners by 19.6 pts | 49.0 |
| 37 | National Public Affairs | 1 | R2 1 | Provisional | 21.2 | 21.2 | 100.0% | Understated winners by 21.2 pts | 12.0 |
| 38 | University of Houston | 1 | R2 1 | Provisional | 24.6 | 24.6 | 100.0% | Understated winners by 24.6 pts | 25.0 |
| 39 | co/efficient | 1 | R2 1 | Provisional | 28.6 | 28.6 | 0.0% | Understated winners by 28.6 pts | 42.0 |
Race-by-race audit
Open any race to see exactly which poll was used and how its margin compared with the result.
AZ GOV GOP PRIMARY 2026 · Primary2 pollster comparisons
| Pollster | Final poll date | Poll margin | Result margin | Error | Winner right? |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Noble Predictive Insights | 2026-07-01 | Biggs +50.0 | Biggs +58.7 | 8.7 | Yes |
| NextGen P | 2026-06-17 | Biggs +46.0 | Biggs +58.7 | 12.7 | Yes |
KY SEN GOP PRIMARY 2026 · Primary3 pollster comparisons
| Pollster | Final poll date | Poll margin | Result margin | Error | Winner right? |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Opinion Strategies | 2026-05-05 | Barr +19.0 | Barr +29.7 | 10.7 | Yes |
| UpONE Insights | 2026-05-11 | Barr +19.0 | Barr +29.7 | 10.7 | Yes |
| Emerson | 2026-03-31 | Barr +7.0 | Barr +29.7 | 22.7 | Yes |
LA SEN GOP PRIMARY 2026 · Round 12 pollster comparisons
| Pollster | Final poll date | Poll margin | Result margin | Error | Winner right? |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Harris, DeVille & Associates | 2026-03-19 | Letlow +13.0 | Letlow +16.5 | 3.5 | Yes |
| Emerson | 2026-04-26 | Letlow -1.0 | Letlow +16.5 | 17.5 | No |
LA SEN GOP PRIMARY 2026 · Round 25 pollster comparisons
| Pollster | Final poll date | Poll margin | Result margin | Error | Winner right? |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kaplan Strategies | 2026-05-26 | Letlow +15.0 | Letlow +13.8 | 1.2 | Yes |
| Harper Polling | 2026-05-19 | Letlow +16.0 | Letlow +13.8 | 2.2 | Yes |
| Quantus Insights | 2026-06-24 | Letlow +3.0 | Letlow +13.8 | 10.8 | Yes |
| BDPC | 2026-06-16 | Letlow +2.0 | Letlow +13.8 | 11.8 | Yes |
| JMC Analytics | 2026-06-22 | Letlow -5.0 | Letlow +13.8 | 18.8 | No |
MI SEN DEM PRIMARY 2026 · Primary8 pollster comparisons
| Pollster | Final poll date | Poll margin | Result margin | Error | Winner right? |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Susquehanna | 2026-06-14 | El-Sayed +2.0 | El-Sayed +1.0 | 1.0 | Yes |
| Quantus Insights | 2026-06-30 | El-Sayed +5.0 | El-Sayed +1.0 | 4.0 | Yes |
| Glengariff Group Inc | 2026-07-11 | El-Sayed -7.0 | El-Sayed +1.0 | 8.0 | No |
| Tavern Research | 2026-07-27 | El-Sayed +11.0 | El-Sayed +1.0 | 10.0 | Yes |
| Mitchell Research & Communications | 2026-07-29 | El-Sayed +14.0 | El-Sayed +1.0 | 13.0 | Yes |
| Emerson | 2026-07-27 | El-Sayed +16.0 | El-Sayed +1.0 | 15.0 | Yes |
| SoCal Strategies | 2026-07-30 | El-Sayed +17.0 | El-Sayed +1.0 | 16.0 | Yes |
| Zenith Research | 2026-07-30 | El-Sayed +18.0 | El-Sayed +1.0 | 17.0 | Yes |
SC GOV GOP PRIMARY 2026 · Round 23 pollster comparisons
| Pollster | Final poll date | Poll margin | Result margin | Error | Winner right? |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| JMC Analytics | 2026-06-15 | Wilson +35.0 | Wilson +37.2 | 2.2 | Yes |
| Opinion Diagnostics | 2026-06-22 | Wilson +42.0 | Wilson +37.2 | 4.8 | Yes |
| National Public Affairs | 2026-06-11 | Wilson +16.0 | Wilson +37.2 | 21.2 | Yes |
SC SEN GOP PRIMARY 2026 · Primary3 pollster comparisons
| Pollster | Final poll date | Poll margin | Result margin | Error | Winner right? |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| InsiderAdvantage | 2026-06-06 | Graham +30.0 | Graham +27.9 | 2.1 | Yes |
| Trafalgar Group | 2026-06-07 | Graham +20.0 | Graham +27.9 | 7.9 | Yes |
| Citadel | 2026-05-31 | Graham +10.0 | Graham +27.9 | 17.9 | Yes |
TX SEN DEM PRIMARY 2026 · Primary8 pollster comparisons
| Pollster | Final poll date | Poll margin | Result margin | Error | Winner right? |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PPP | 2026-02-25 | Talarico +6.0 | Talarico +6.3 | 0.3 | Yes |
| Emerson | 2026-02-27 | Talarico +5.0 | Talarico +6.3 | 1.3 | Yes |
| Impact Research | 2026-02-12 | Talarico +4.0 | Talarico +6.3 | 2.3 | Yes |
| Blueprint Polling | 2026-02-24 | Talarico +12.0 | Talarico +6.3 | 5.7 | Yes |
| YouGov | 2026-03-02 | Talarico +13.0 | Talarico +6.3 | 6.7 | Yes |
| Slingshot Strategies | 2026-01-21 | Talarico -1.0 | Talarico +6.3 | 7.3 | No |
| HIT Strategies | 2026-01-15 | Talarico -13.0 | Talarico +6.3 | 19.3 | No |
| University of Texas at Tyler | 2026-02-22 | Talarico -18.0 | Talarico +6.3 | 24.3 | No |
TX SEN GOP PRIMARY 2026 · Round 111 pollster comparisons
| Pollster | Final poll date | Poll margin | Result margin | Error | Winner right? |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Peak Insights | 2026-02-23 | Cornyn +0.0 | Cornyn +1.2 | 1.2 | No |
| University of Texas at Tyler | 2026-02-22 | Cornyn +3.0 | Cornyn +1.2 | 1.8 | Yes |
| J.L. Partners | 2026-02-03 | Cornyn -1.0 | Cornyn +1.2 | 2.2 | No |
| Emerson | 2026-02-27 | Cornyn -4.0 | Cornyn +1.2 | 5.2 | No |
| YouGov | 2026-03-02 | Cornyn -4.0 | Cornyn +1.2 | 5.2 | No |
| Harper Polling | 2026-01-07 | Cornyn -5.0 | Cornyn +1.2 | 6.2 | No |
| Quantus Insights | 2026-02-26 | Cornyn -5.0 | Cornyn +1.2 | 6.2 | No |
| McLaughlin & Associates | 2026-02-12 | Cornyn -7.0 | Cornyn +1.2 | 8.2 | No |
| Pulse Decision Science | 2026-02-03 | Cornyn -8.0 | Cornyn +1.2 | 9.2 | No |
| Victory Phone | 2026-02-25 | Cornyn -9.0 | Cornyn +1.2 | 10.2 | No |
| Blueprint Polling | 2026-02-24 | Cornyn -12.0 | Cornyn +1.2 | 13.2 | No |
TX SEN GOP PRIMARY 2026 · Round 28 pollster comparisons
| Pollster | Final poll date | Poll margin | Result margin | Error | Winner right? |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SoCal Strategies | 2026-05-21 | Paxton +22.0 | Paxton +27.6 | 5.6 | Yes |
| Global Strategy Group | 2026-05-11 | Paxton +12.0 | Paxton +27.6 | 15.6 | Yes |
| Remington Research Group | 2026-05-05 | Paxton +11.0 | Paxton +27.6 | 16.6 | Yes |
| Quantus Insights | 2026-05-23 | Paxton +10.0 | Paxton +27.6 | 17.6 | Yes |
| Texas Public Opinion Research | 2026-04-07 | Paxton +8.0 | Paxton +27.6 | 19.6 | Yes |
| University of Houston | 2026-05-01 | Paxton +3.0 | Paxton +27.6 | 24.6 | Yes |
| co/efficient | 2026-04-14 | Paxton -1.0 | Paxton +27.6 | 28.6 | No |
| Peak Insights | 2026-05-05 | Paxton -1.0 | Paxton +27.6 | 28.6 | No |
How scores are calculated
- Polls must end no more than 60 days before the relevant primary or runoff.
- Round 1 and Round 2 are scored as separate election benchmarks in runoff states.
- Only the latest qualifying poll from each pollster containing both the eventual winner and runner-up is used.
- Error is the absolute difference between the poll margin and final margin.
- If multiple releases share the latest field date, their margins are averaged.
Reading the report
Average error is the primary ranking metric. Round mix shows whether a firm's scores came from ordinary primaries, Round 1, or Round 2. Pollster aliases are standardized before aggregation.