{ "schema_version": 30, "model": "V6_0_FULL_COMPARISON", "v0": { "schema_version": 5, "model": "V0_BENCHMARK", "source": { "race_url": "https://data.americafirstinsight.com/Election2026/output/2026/MI/US_Senate/00/democratic/", "snapshot": "48.json", "snapshot_url": "https://data.americafirstinsight.com/Election2026/output/2026/MI/US_Senate/00/democratic/48.json", "final_url": "https://data.americafirstinsight.com/Election2026/output/2026/MI/US_Senate/00/democratic/latest.json" }, "race_name": "Michigan US Senate Democratic Primary", "state": "MI", "race_type": "US Senate", "scope": "Primary", "timestamp": "2026-08-05T02:52:37.152Z", "percent_reporting_source": 40.4, "votes_reported": 568436, "final_votes_backtest_only": 1528666, "actual_vote_counted_pct_backtest_only": 37.18510125822122, "predicted_leader": "Abdul El-Sayed", "projected_margin_points": 3.0094856764877664, "final_leader": "Abdul El-Sayed", "actual_final_margin_points": 0.9637160766315211, "leader_correct": true, "winner_projection": { "name": "Abdul El-Sayed", "projected_share_points": 49.66909203498723, "final_share_points": 48.478346479871995, "share_error_points": 1.1907455551152353, "projected_margin_points": 3.0094856764877664, "final_margin_points": 0.9637160766315211, "margin_error_points": 2.0457695998562455 }, "runoff_threshold": { "threshold_pct": 50.0, "projected_winner_above_threshold": false, "final_winner_above_threshold": false, "threshold_call_correct": true }, "competitive_state": { "tossup_band_points": 1.0, "projected_state": "WINNER", "final_state": "TOSSUP", "state_call_correct": false }, "final_top_two": [ "Abdul El-Sayed", "Haley Stevens" ], "final_top_two_projected_margin_points": 3.0094856764877664, "final_top_two_margin_error_points": 2.0457695998562455, "candidate_share_mae_points": 0.7938303700768233, "candidate_share_rmse_points": 0.868264557731862, "projection": [ { "name": "Abdul El-Sayed", "party": "Democratic", "color": "#40247a", "major_candidate": true, "current_votes": 282337, "current_share": 0.4966909203498723, "projected_share": 0.4966909203498723, "final_votes": 741072, "final_share": 0.4847834647987199, "share_error_points": 1.1907455551152357 }, { "name": "Haley Stevens", "party": "Democratic", "color": "#339933", "major_candidate": true, "current_votes": 265230, "current_share": 0.4665960635849946, "projected_share": 0.4665960635849946, "final_votes": 726340, "final_share": 0.4751463040324047, "share_error_points": -0.8550240447410096 }, { "name": "Mallory McMorrow", "party": "Democratic", "color": "#009f8e", "major_candidate": true, "current_votes": 20869, "current_share": 0.0367130160651331, "projected_share": 0.0367130160651331, "final_votes": 61254, "final_share": 0.04007023116887535, "share_error_points": -0.33572151037422476 } ], "diagnostics": { "method": "V0 freezes the current statewide candidate shares as the projected final shares.", "uses_final_results_for_projection": false, "uses_final_results_for_scoring_only": true, "reporting_warning": "VoteFlow percent_reporting is used as a reporting-unit completion signal. It is not assumed to equal statewide percent of votes counted." } }, "v1": { "schema_version": 5, "model": "V1_GEOGRAPHIC_COMPLETION", "source": { "race_url": "https://data.americafirstinsight.com/Election2026/output/2026/MI/US_Senate/00/democratic/", "snapshot": "48.json", "snapshot_url": "https://data.americafirstinsight.com/Election2026/output/2026/MI/US_Senate/00/democratic/48.json", "final_url": "https://data.americafirstinsight.com/Election2026/output/2026/MI/US_Senate/00/democratic/latest.json" }, "race_name": "Michigan US Senate Democratic Primary", "state": "MI", "race_type": "US Senate", "scope": "Primary", "timestamp": "2026-08-05T02:52:37.152Z", "percent_reporting_source": 40.4, "votes_reported": 568436, "final_votes_backtest_only": 1528666, "actual_vote_counted_pct_backtest_only": 37.18510125822122, "predicted_leader": "Abdul El-Sayed", "projected_margin_points": 0.01782936908477084, "final_leader": "Abdul El-Sayed", "actual_final_margin_points": 0.9637160766315211, "leader_correct": true, "winner_projection": { "name": "Abdul El-Sayed", "projected_share_points": 48.12409094926231, "final_share_points": 48.478346479871995, "share_error_points": -0.3542555306096844, "projected_margin_points": 0.01782936908477084, "final_margin_points": 0.9637160766315211, "margin_error_points": -0.9458867075467503 }, "runoff_threshold": { "threshold_pct": 50.0, "projected_winner_above_threshold": false, "final_winner_above_threshold": false, "threshold_call_correct": true }, "competitive_state": { "tossup_band_points": 1.0, "projected_state": "TOSSUP", "final_state": "TOSSUP", "state_call_correct": true }, "final_top_two": [ "Abdul El-Sayed", "Haley Stevens" ], "final_top_two_projected_margin_points": 0.01782936908477084, "final_top_two_margin_error_points": -0.9458867075467503, "candidate_share_mae_points": 0.39442078462470936, "candidate_share_rmse_points": 0.4210588351449349, "projection": [ { "name": "Abdul El-Sayed", "party": "Democratic", "color": "#40247a", "major_candidate": true, "current_votes": 282337, "current_share": 0.4966909203498723, "projected_share": 0.4812409094926231, "final_votes": 741072, "final_share": 0.4847834647987199, "share_error_points": -0.35425553060968173 }, { "name": "Haley Stevens", "party": "Democratic", "color": "#339933", "major_candidate": true, "current_votes": 265230, "current_share": 0.4665960635849946, "projected_share": 0.4810626158017754, "final_votes": 726340, "final_share": 0.4751463040324047, "share_error_points": 0.5916311769370686 }, { "name": "Mallory McMorrow", "party": "Democratic", "color": "#009f8e", "major_candidate": true, "current_votes": 20869, "current_share": 0.0367130160651331, "projected_share": 0.03769647470560157, "final_votes": 61254, "final_share": 0.04007023116887535, "share_error_points": -0.23737564632737782 } ], "diagnostics": { "method": "V1 estimates a final vote total for every reporting county using that county's VoteFlow percent_reporting, preserves that county's current candidate shares, and sums the county projections statewide.", "uses_final_results_for_projection": false, "uses_final_results_for_scoring_only": true, "reporting_warning": "VoteFlow percent_reporting is used as a reporting-unit completion signal. It is not assumed to equal statewide percent of votes counted.", "v1_limitation": "Counties with 0 reported votes / 0% reporting have no turnout size yet. Historical county turnout baselines are the next model layer.", "v1_max_expansion_factor": 50.0 }, "geographic": { "counties_total": 83, "counties_used": 69, "counties_zero_reporting": 0, "counties_zero_votes": 14, "counties_expansion_capped": 1, "current_votes_covered": 568436, "current_vote_coverage_pct": 100.0, "estimated_votes_reporting_counties": 1384592.3586930097, "fell_back_to_v0": false } }, "v3": { "schema_version": 5, "model": "V3_ADAPTIVE_REMAINING_VOTE", "source": { "race_url": "https://data.americafirstinsight.com/Election2026/output/2026/MI/US_Senate/00/democratic/", "snapshot": "48.json", "snapshot_url": "https://data.americafirstinsight.com/Election2026/output/2026/MI/US_Senate/00/democratic/48.json", "final_url": "https://data.americafirstinsight.com/Election2026/output/2026/MI/US_Senate/00/democratic/latest.json" }, "race_name": "Michigan US Senate Democratic Primary", "state": "MI", "race_type": "US Senate", "scope": "Primary", "timestamp": "2026-08-05T02:52:37.152Z", "percent_reporting_source": 40.4, "votes_reported": 568436, "final_votes_backtest_only": 1528666, "actual_vote_counted_pct_backtest_only": 37.18510125822122, "predicted_leader": "Abdul El-Sayed", "projected_margin_points": 2.225930067021742, "final_leader": "Abdul El-Sayed", "actual_final_margin_points": 0.9637160766315211, "leader_correct": true, "winner_projection": { "name": "Abdul El-Sayed", "projected_share_points": 49.2677993475041, "final_share_points": 48.478346479871995, "share_error_points": 0.7894528676321073, "projected_margin_points": 2.225930067021742, "final_margin_points": 0.9637160766315211, "margin_error_points": 1.2622139903902208 }, "runoff_threshold": { "threshold_pct": 50.0, "projected_winner_above_threshold": false, "final_winner_above_threshold": false, "threshold_call_correct": true }, "competitive_state": { "tossup_band_points": 1.0, "projected_state": "WINNER", "final_state": "TOSSUP", "state_call_correct": false }, "final_top_two": [ "Abdul El-Sayed", "Haley Stevens" ], "final_top_two_projected_margin_points": 2.225930067021742, "final_top_two_margin_error_points": 1.2622139903902208, "candidate_share_mae_points": 0.5263019117547357, "candidate_share_rmse_points": 0.5618518697650355, "projection": [ { "name": "Abdul El-Sayed", "party": "Democratic", "color": "#40247a", "major_candidate": true, "current_votes": 282337, "current_share": 0.4966909203498723, "projected_share": 0.492677993475041, "final_votes": 741072, "final_share": 0.4847834647987199, "share_error_points": 0.7894528676321066 }, { "name": "Haley Stevens", "party": "Democratic", "color": "#339933", "major_candidate": true, "current_votes": 265230, "current_share": 0.4665960635849946, "projected_share": 0.47041869280482357, "final_votes": 726340, "final_share": 0.4751463040324047, "share_error_points": -0.4727611227581141 }, { "name": "Mallory McMorrow", "party": "Democratic", "color": "#009f8e", "major_candidate": true, "current_votes": 20869, "current_share": 0.0367130160651331, "projected_share": 0.036903313720135486, "final_votes": 61254, "final_share": 0.04007023116887535, "share_error_points": -0.3166917448739863 } ], "diagnostics": { "method": "V3 estimates remaining votes county-by-county from a prior turnout footprint, keeps counted votes fixed, and predicts only outstanding votes. When candidate names match the reference it also learns live geographic swing and eliminated-candidate transfers.", "uses_final_results_for_projection": false, "uses_final_results_for_scoring_only": true, "reporting_warning": "VoteFlow percent_reporting is used as a reporting-unit completion signal. It is not assumed to equal statewide percent of votes counted.", "v3_reference_available": true, "v3_reference_url": "/var/www/html/afi_needle_lab/engine/references/library/mi_democratic_library.json", "v3_reference_is_auto_round1": false, "v3_mode": "historical_turnout_only", "v3_candidate_baseline_available": false, "v3_limitation": "Vote-method composition is not modeled yet. A single-round reference with different candidate names improves turnout geography but cannot supply candidate-specific geography." }, "v3": { "mode": "historical_turnout_only", "reference_available": true, "reference_url": "/var/www/html/afi_needle_lab/engine/references/library/mi_democratic_library.json", "reference_election_name": "MI historical reference library (4 races)", "reference_is_auto_round1": false, "turnout_ratio_vs_reference": 1.48443331880348, "geographic_progress": 0.3827711998695284, "estimated_final_votes": 1513383.4966413756, "estimated_remaining_votes": 944947.4966413771, "candidate_baseline_available": false, "matched_current_candidates": [], "eliminated_candidates": [ "Historical Total" ], "raw_global_swing_points": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 0.0, "Haley Stevens": 0.0, "Mallory McMorrow": 0.0 }, "applied_global_swing_points": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 0.0, "Haley Stevens": 0.0, "Mallory McMorrow": 0.0 }, "swing_strength": 0.0, "transfer_coefficients": { "Abdul El-Sayed": {}, "Haley Stevens": {}, "Mallory McMorrow": {} }, "reference_library": { "manifest_state": "MI", "manifest_party": "democratic", "references_requested": 4, "references_used": 4, "composite_total_votes": 1023978, "weights": [ { "source": "/var/www/html/afi_needle_lab/engine/references/official/mi_official_20260828_152614_195e3b3ae6bf6bb9.json", "election_name": "2024-08-06 \u2014 DEMOCRATIC \u2014 UNITED STATES SENATOR 6 YEAR TERM (1) POSITION", "year": 2024, "party": "democratic", "total_votes": 933844, "counties": 83, "recency_score": 0.7710515858035663, "office_similarity": 0.8, "live_turnout_fit": 0.871831229850376, "weight": 0.4068387284211743 }, { "source": "/var/www/html/afi_needle_lab/engine/references/official/mi_official_20260828_152940_e6d213d83f7d09e3.json", "election_name": "2024-02-27 \u2014 DEMOCRATIC \u2014 PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES 4 YEAR TERM (1) POSITION", "year": 2024, "party": "democratic", "total_votes": 770571, "counties": 83, "recency_score": 0.7710515858035663, "office_similarity": 0.55, "live_turnout_fit": 0.927831640663263, "weight": 0.2908081182152374 }, { "source": "/var/www/html/afi_needle_lab/engine/references/official/mi_official_20260828_153102_eac66d34d9fc7329.json", "election_name": "2020-03-10 \u2014 Democratic \u2014 President of the United States 4 Year Term (1) Position", "year": 2020, "party": "democratic", "total_votes": 1587679, "counties": 83, "recency_score": 0.4584060113052235, "office_similarity": 0.55, "live_turnout_fit": 0.9091247332234232, "weight": 0.17068566047679776 }, { "source": "/var/www/html/afi_needle_lab/engine/references/official/mi_official_20260828_153137_cbbc622d503a8c99.json", "election_name": "2018-08-07 \u2014 Democratic \u2014 Governor 4 Year Term (1) Position", "year": 2018, "party": "democratic", "total_votes": 1131447, "counties": 83, "recency_score": 0.35345468195878016, "office_similarity": 0.55, "live_turnout_fit": 0.9097851703003733, "weight": 0.13166749288679058 } ], "weighting_method": "recency \u00d7 office similarity \u00d7 party match \u00d7 live county-turnout fit, normalized across usable historical races" }, "counties": [ { "county": "Livingston", "cid": "fips:26093", "fips": "26093", "percent_reporting": 80.73, "current_votes": 21490, "expected_final_votes": 26523.181154902108, "estimated_remaining_votes": 5033.181154902108, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 50.51827629438693, "Haley Stevens": 45.68743546434764, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.794288241265435 } }, { "county": "Calhoun", "cid": "fips:26025", "fips": "26025", "percent_reporting": 7.2700000000000005, "current_votes": 918, "expected_final_votes": 12729.954356962822, "estimated_remaining_votes": 11811.954356962822, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 48.34848774414522, "Haley Stevens": 47.530903217520645, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.120609038334141 } }, { "county": "St. Clair", "cid": "fips:26147", "fips": "26147", "percent_reporting": 34.81, "current_votes": 6209, "expected_final_votes": 16964.18585599924, "estimated_remaining_votes": 10755.18585599924, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 45.86859573241209, "Haley Stevens": 50.1080517491977, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.023352518390219 } }, { "county": "Leelanau", "cid": "fips:26089", "fips": "26089", "percent_reporting": 15.83, "current_votes": 903, "expected_final_votes": 6399.342097041341, "estimated_remaining_votes": 5496.342097041341, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 51.717396415113484, "Haley Stevens": 44.9264186039844, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.3561849809021154 } }, { "county": "Oceana", "cid": "fips:26127", "fips": "26127", "percent_reporting": 51.29, "current_votes": 1350, "expected_final_votes": 2590.3814241764385, "estimated_remaining_votes": 1240.3814241764385, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 42.21387823611396, "Haley Stevens": 54.197714049604826, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.588407714281214 } }, { "county": "Tuscola", "cid": "fips:26157", "fips": "26157", "percent_reporting": 41.07, "current_votes": 2125, "expected_final_votes": 4743.943835602582, "estimated_remaining_votes": 2618.943835602582, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 41.542453416272515, "Haley Stevens": 52.85658623575533, "Mallory McMorrow": 5.600960347972139 } }, { "county": "Cass", "cid": "fips:26027", "fips": "26027", "percent_reporting": 99.0, "current_votes": 3505, "expected_final_votes": 3582.5588891522852, "estimated_remaining_votes": 77.55888915228525, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 45.973761345656506, "Haley Stevens": 45.66858318325481, "Mallory McMorrow": 8.357655471088682 } }, { "county": "Berrien", "cid": "fips:26021", "fips": "26021", "percent_reporting": 9.46, "current_votes": 1294, "expected_final_votes": 16350.65577827919, "estimated_remaining_votes": 15056.65577827919, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 52.361693045920454, "Haley Stevens": 43.31351516637008, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.324791787709454 } }, { "county": "Keweenaw", "cid": "fips:26083", "fips": "26083", "percent_reporting": 92.62, "current_votes": 414, "expected_final_votes": 449.7062889870663, "estimated_remaining_votes": 35.70628898706627, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 51.672948841780055, "Haley Stevens": 42.761872962521146, "Mallory McMorrow": 5.565178195698797 } }, { "county": "Lapeer", "cid": "fips:26087", "fips": "26087", "percent_reporting": 7.41, "current_votes": 685, "expected_final_votes": 8865.641770206288, "estimated_remaining_votes": 8180.641770206288, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 46.401211677412505, "Haley Stevens": 49.81416720265253, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.7846211199349673 } }, { "county": "Benzie", "cid": "fips:26019", "fips": "26019", "percent_reporting": 24.01, "current_votes": 765, "expected_final_votes": 3939.612088011311, "estimated_remaining_votes": 3174.612088011311, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 53.3861388986278, "Haley Stevens": 42.81992865459943, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.793932446772769 } }, { "county": "Houghton", "cid": "fips:26061", "fips": "26061", "percent_reporting": 25.489999999999995, "current_votes": 1059, "expected_final_votes": 4404.74264210606, "estimated_remaining_votes": 3345.74264210606, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 49.85999700261376, "Haley Stevens": 44.98501767955519, "Mallory McMorrow": 5.154985317831048 } }, { "county": "Wayne", "cid": "fips:26163", "fips": "26163", "percent_reporting": 22.97, "current_votes": 69886, "expected_final_votes": 313753.3379252507, "estimated_remaining_votes": 243867.3379252507, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 42.31967189156294, "Haley Stevens": 54.04792844150032, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.632399666936749 } }, { "county": "Clinton", "cid": "fips:26037", "fips": "26037", "percent_reporting": 0.11, "current_votes": 11, "expected_final_votes": 12052.099798507375, "estimated_remaining_votes": 12041.099798507375, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 50.433845372032515, "Haley Stevens": 46.01661632066452, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.5495383073029743 } }, { "county": "Barry", "cid": "fips:26015", "fips": "26015", "percent_reporting": 51.57000000000001, "current_votes": 3040, "expected_final_votes": 5124.356984925492, "estimated_remaining_votes": 2084.356984925492, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 42.96172350897401, "Haley Stevens": 51.84586774604589, "Mallory McMorrow": 5.192408744980101 } }, { "county": "Schoolcraft", "cid": "fips:26153", "fips": "26153", "percent_reporting": 0.0, "current_votes": 0, "expected_final_votes": 987.1481570043142, "estimated_remaining_votes": 987.1481570043142, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 49.66909203498723, "Haley Stevens": 46.65960635849946, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.67130160651331 } }, { "county": "Wexford", "cid": "fips:26165", "fips": "26165", "percent_reporting": 44.65, "current_votes": 1194, "expected_final_votes": 2749.661102210802, "estimated_remaining_votes": 1555.6611022108018, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 45.86082064562217, "Haley Stevens": 50.06691694502504, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.0722624093527875 } }, { "county": "Osceola", "cid": "fips:26133", "fips": "26133", "percent_reporting": 99.0, "current_votes": 1571, "expected_final_votes": 1590.1334932632778, "estimated_remaining_votes": 19.133493263277842, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 42.21898708936537, "Haley Stevens": 51.750762773927775, "Mallory McMorrow": 6.030250136706862 } }, { "county": "Grand Traverse", "cid": "fips:26055", "fips": "26055", "percent_reporting": 6.860000000000001, "current_votes": 1147, "expected_final_votes": 12382.868104134455, "estimated_remaining_votes": 11235.868104134455, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 53.00973182894082, "Haley Stevens": 43.57265813157436, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.4176100394848232 } }, { "county": "Ionia", "cid": "fips:26067", "fips": "26067", "percent_reporting": 53.0, "current_votes": 5141, "expected_final_votes": 6296.4377744995945, "estimated_remaining_votes": 1155.4377744995945, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 48.274414697049245, "Haley Stevens": 47.78156797033623, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.9440173326145036 } }, { "county": "Oscoda", "cid": "fips:26135", "fips": "26135", "percent_reporting": 99.0, "current_votes": 1082, "expected_final_votes": 1082.0, "estimated_remaining_votes": 0.0, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 40.3959256158699, "Haley Stevens": 55.9862650794633, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.6178093046668023 } }, { "county": "Saginaw", "cid": "fips:26145", "fips": "26145", "percent_reporting": 16.6, "current_votes": 4432, "expected_final_votes": 29118.364928707186, "estimated_remaining_votes": 24686.364928707186, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 47.30343527751496, "Haley Stevens": 48.58135536712862, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.11520935535642 } }, { "county": "Charlevoix", "cid": "fips:26029", "fips": "26029", "percent_reporting": 96.98, "current_votes": 3339, "expected_final_votes": 3499.4771363120394, "estimated_remaining_votes": 160.47713631203942, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 49.49057192601512, "Haley Stevens": 45.91772540467384, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.591702669311049 } }, { "county": "Ottawa", "cid": "fips:26139", "fips": "26139", "percent_reporting": 38.53, "current_votes": 9627, "expected_final_votes": 24412.060276468925, "estimated_remaining_votes": 14785.060276468925, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 52.1150899003426, "Haley Stevens": 43.66836185810447, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.216548241552943 } }, { "county": "Isabella", "cid": "fips:26073", "fips": "26073", "percent_reporting": 23.48, "current_votes": 1752, "expected_final_votes": 7992.3953919174755, "estimated_remaining_votes": 6240.3953919174755, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 48.99970848129633, "Haley Stevens": 46.535802420383504, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.464489098320168 } }, { "county": "Allegan", "cid": "fips:26005", "fips": "26005", "percent_reporting": 0.0, "current_votes": 0, "expected_final_votes": 12233.214980259478, "estimated_remaining_votes": 12233.214980259478, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 49.66909203498723, "Haley Stevens": 46.65960635849946, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.67130160651331 } }, { "county": "Bay", "cid": "fips:26017", "fips": "26017", "percent_reporting": 5.77, "current_votes": 926, "expected_final_votes": 16434.35687490029, "estimated_remaining_votes": 15508.356874900292, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 49.359472630709476, "Haley Stevens": 46.65784358071798, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.9826837885725426 } }, { "county": "Shiawassee", "cid": "fips:26155", "fips": "26155", "percent_reporting": 44.43, "current_votes": 3588, "expected_final_votes": 8537.64208510183, "estimated_remaining_votes": 4949.64208510183, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 42.99743355613435, "Haley Stevens": 51.26408507308404, "Mallory McMorrow": 5.738481370781609 } }, { "county": "Iron", "cid": "fips:26071", "fips": "26071", "percent_reporting": 0.0, "current_votes": 0, "expected_final_votes": 1664.049750378701, "estimated_remaining_votes": 1664.049750378701, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 49.66909203498723, "Haley Stevens": 46.65960635849946, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.67130160651331 } }, { "county": "Midland", "cid": "fips:26111", "fips": "26111", "percent_reporting": 38.17, "current_votes": 3780, "expected_final_votes": 10817.057104082069, "estimated_remaining_votes": 7037.057104082069, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 45.18268716162428, "Haley Stevens": 50.5049049829975, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.3124078553782175 } }, { "county": "Alcona", "cid": "fips:26001", "fips": "26001", "percent_reporting": 96.49, "current_votes": 1237, "expected_final_votes": 1281.6080298185204, "estimated_remaining_votes": 44.608029818520436, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 43.43422261071613, "Haley Stevens": 49.299584974205956, "Mallory McMorrow": 7.266192415077925 } }, { "county": "Eaton", "cid": "fips:26045", "fips": "26045", "percent_reporting": 92.34, "current_votes": 15102, "expected_final_votes": 16586.270588417996, "estimated_remaining_votes": 1484.270588417996, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 48.09035396520166, "Haley Stevens": 46.44488644187603, "Mallory McMorrow": 5.464759592922316 } }, { "county": "Mason", "cid": "fips:26105", "fips": "26105", "percent_reporting": 20.12, "current_votes": 718, "expected_final_votes": 3444.660439539037, "estimated_remaining_votes": 2726.660439539037, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 49.192795924621, "Haley Stevens": 46.47119065883009, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.3360134165489175 } }, { "county": "Mecosta", "cid": "fips:26107", "fips": "26107", "percent_reporting": 98.54, "current_votes": 3431, "expected_final_votes": 3500.1578955256296, "estimated_remaining_votes": 69.15789552562956, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 45.725132892570166, "Haley Stevens": 49.94981692894268, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.325050178487157 } }, { "county": "Otsego", "cid": "fips:26137", "fips": "26137", "percent_reporting": 70.99, "current_votes": 1730, "expected_final_votes": 2582.2585725086306, "estimated_remaining_votes": 852.2585725086306, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 46.789309736477215, "Haley Stevens": 48.59203687863631, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.6186533848864775 } }, { "county": "Van Buren", "cid": "fips:26159", "fips": "26159", "percent_reporting": 21.44, "current_votes": 1748, "expected_final_votes": 8264.409355732236, "estimated_remaining_votes": 6516.409355732236, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 47.597209839351876, "Haley Stevens": 48.39174574298359, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.011044417664534 } }, { "county": "Baraga", "cid": "fips:26013", "fips": "26013", "percent_reporting": 66.21, "current_votes": 527, "expected_final_votes": 863.3151388567894, "estimated_remaining_votes": 336.3151388567894, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 44.39302144305057, "Haley Stevens": 47.43438806486877, "Mallory McMorrow": 8.17259049208065 } }, { "county": "Lenawee", "cid": "fips:26091", "fips": "26091", "percent_reporting": 0.0, "current_votes": 0, "expected_final_votes": 9669.598638685868, "estimated_remaining_votes": 9669.598638685868, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 49.66909203498723, "Haley Stevens": 46.65960635849946, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.67130160651331 } }, { "county": "Gladwin", "cid": "fips:26051", "fips": "26051", "percent_reporting": 0.0, "current_votes": 0, "expected_final_votes": 2590.3361413120724, "estimated_remaining_votes": 2590.3361413120724, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 49.66909203498723, "Haley Stevens": 46.65960635849946, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.67130160651331 } }, { "county": "Branch", "cid": "fips:26023", "fips": "26023", "percent_reporting": 45.38, "current_votes": 1514, "expected_final_votes": 2842.9638581037907, "estimated_remaining_votes": 1328.9638581037907, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 41.43805134936668, "Haley Stevens": 53.848741770725205, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.71320687990812 } }, { "county": "Manistee", "cid": "fips:26101", "fips": "26101", "percent_reporting": 0.0, "current_votes": 0, "expected_final_votes": 3791.242696224088, "estimated_remaining_votes": 3791.242696224088, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 49.66909203498723, "Haley Stevens": 46.65960635849946, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.67130160651331 } }, { "county": "Huron", "cid": "fips:26063", "fips": "26063", "percent_reporting": 91.36, "current_votes": 2200, "expected_final_votes": 2451.9373446972127, "estimated_remaining_votes": 251.93734469721267, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 37.57018204336108, "Haley Stevens": 57.11373945351808, "Mallory McMorrow": 5.316078503120844 } }, { "county": "Ontonagon", "cid": "fips:26131", "fips": "26131", "percent_reporting": 15.380000000000003, "current_votes": 134, "expected_final_votes": 984.4069201533449, "estimated_remaining_votes": 850.4069201533449, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 49.21353186784084, "Haley Stevens": 45.628286077300096, "Mallory McMorrow": 5.158182054859063 } }, { "county": "Genesee", "cid": "fips:26049", "fips": "26049", "percent_reporting": 3.4300000000000006, "current_votes": 2213, "expected_final_votes": 66396.37937851738, "estimated_remaining_votes": 64183.37937851738, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 49.98562689180982, "Haley Stevens": 46.37860482872086, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.635768279469321 } }, { "county": "Jackson", "cid": "fips:26075", "fips": "26075", "percent_reporting": 3.46, "current_votes": 581, "expected_final_votes": 15897.60702633344, "estimated_remaining_votes": 15316.60702633344, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 48.56207434341256, "Haley Stevens": 47.6491351233427, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.7887905332447405 } }, { "county": "Crawford", "cid": "fips:26039", "fips": "26039", "percent_reporting": 81.36, "current_votes": 1135, "expected_final_votes": 1423.2488843055814, "estimated_remaining_votes": 288.24888430558144, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 42.14527215149083, "Haley Stevens": 51.8341239148717, "Mallory McMorrow": 6.020603933637464 } }, { "county": "Ingham", "cid": "fips:26065", "fips": "26065", "percent_reporting": 34.23, "current_votes": 18881, "expected_final_votes": 57513.62316125496, "estimated_remaining_votes": 38632.62316125496, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 58.906227973991186, "Haley Stevens": 37.38274040043815, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.7110316255706675 } }, { "county": "Lake", "cid": "fips:26085", "fips": "26085", "percent_reporting": 61.51, "current_votes": 799, "expected_final_votes": 1305.3753173110222, "estimated_remaining_votes": 506.3753173110222, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 37.80609386521957, "Haley Stevens": 57.082988566279504, "Mallory McMorrow": 5.110917568500926 } }, { "county": "Marquette", "cid": "fips:26103", "fips": "26103", "percent_reporting": 0.0, "current_votes": 0, "expected_final_votes": 13575.142700457824, "estimated_remaining_votes": 13575.142700457824, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 49.66909203498723, "Haley Stevens": 46.65960635849946, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.67130160651331 } }, { "county": "Kalamazoo", "cid": "fips:26077", "fips": "26077", "percent_reporting": 3.45, "current_votes": 1425, "expected_final_votes": 43510.15108479823, "estimated_remaining_votes": 42085.15108479823, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 49.20265783863977, "Haley Stevens": 46.908573427484576, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.8887687338756436 } }, { "county": "Oakland", "cid": "fips:26125", "fips": "26125", "percent_reporting": 76.49, "current_votes": 189661, "expected_final_votes": 247955.28827297688, "estimated_remaining_votes": 58294.288272976875, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 47.941843251324954, "Haley Stevens": 49.143585240570665, "Mallory McMorrow": 2.9145715081043764 } }, { "county": "Gd. Traverse", "cid": "name:gd_traverse", "fips": null, "percent_reporting": 0.0, "current_votes": 0, "expected_final_votes": 5156.92134952329, "estimated_remaining_votes": 5156.92134952329, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 49.66909203498723, "Haley Stevens": 46.65960635849946, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.67130160651331 } }, { "county": "Montmorency", "cid": "fips:26119", "fips": "26119", "percent_reporting": 0.0, "current_votes": 0, "expected_final_votes": 970.8193904974759, "estimated_remaining_votes": 970.8193904974759, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 49.66909203498723, "Haley Stevens": 46.65960635849946, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.67130160651331 } }, { "county": "Presque Isle", "cid": "fips:26141", "fips": "26141", "percent_reporting": 21.17, "current_votes": 344, "expected_final_votes": 1795.5801453614304, "estimated_remaining_votes": 1451.5801453614304, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 41.12743159811932, "Haley Stevens": 54.48291910842548, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.3896492934552045 } }, { "county": "Iosco", "cid": "fips:26069", "fips": "26069", "percent_reporting": 68.61, "current_votes": 3460, "expected_final_votes": 4073.2913002151113, "estimated_remaining_votes": 613.2913002151113, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 40.87023459196855, "Haley Stevens": 54.04868427748024, "Mallory McMorrow": 5.081081130551217 } }, { "county": "Kent", "cid": "fips:26081", "fips": "26081", "percent_reporting": 53.71, "current_votes": 44593, "expected_final_votes": 91511.32971673878, "estimated_remaining_votes": 46918.32971673878, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 60.6738460188416, "Haley Stevens": 35.64687092077415, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.679283060384252 } }, { "county": "Monroe", "cid": "fips:26115", "fips": "26115", "percent_reporting": 20.1, "current_votes": 3167, "expected_final_votes": 16594.80053903848, "estimated_remaining_votes": 13427.800539038479, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 47.30470362904122, "Haley Stevens": 48.32000335408305, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.375293016875722 } }, { "county": "Missaukee", "cid": "fips:26113", "fips": "26113", "percent_reporting": 93.37, "current_votes": 943, "expected_final_votes": 1013.1256923166123, "estimated_remaining_votes": 70.12569231661234, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 39.79596050667931, "Haley Stevens": 54.20997005218769, "Mallory McMorrow": 5.994069441132989 } }, { "county": "Luce", "cid": "fips:26095", "fips": "26095", "percent_reporting": 99.0, "current_votes": 407, "expected_final_votes": 412.6032362496599, "estimated_remaining_votes": 5.603236249659915, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 44.13529260847165, "Haley Stevens": 48.8405207802994, "Mallory McMorrow": 7.024186611228952 } }, { "county": "Montcalm", "cid": "fips:26117", "fips": "26117", "percent_reporting": 63.12, "current_votes": 3207, "expected_final_votes": 5290.014744337204, "estimated_remaining_votes": 2083.0147443372043, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 41.917817139626464, "Haley Stevens": 54.255766526156656, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.8264163342168733 } }, { "county": "Sanilac", "cid": "fips:26151", "fips": "26151", "percent_reporting": 47.64, "current_votes": 1531, "expected_final_votes": 3116.232558525873, "estimated_remaining_votes": 1585.2325585258732, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 40.678062009218266, "Haley Stevens": 55.524748474350936, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.797189516430801 } }, { "county": "Ogemaw", "cid": "fips:26129", "fips": "26129", "percent_reporting": 0.0, "current_votes": 0, "expected_final_votes": 2287.5117442761625, "estimated_remaining_votes": 2287.5117442761625, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 49.66909203498723, "Haley Stevens": 46.65960635849946, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.67130160651331 } }, { "county": "Chippewa", "cid": "fips:26033", "fips": "26033", "percent_reporting": 77.91, "current_votes": 2769, "expected_final_votes": 3536.4548380501774, "estimated_remaining_votes": 767.4548380501774, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 47.95476459695772, "Haley Stevens": 46.51501986324919, "Mallory McMorrow": 5.530215539793092 } }, { "county": "Dickinson", "cid": "fips:26043", "fips": "26043", "percent_reporting": 0.0, "current_votes": 0, "expected_final_votes": 2771.437006206097, "estimated_remaining_votes": 2771.437006206097, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 49.66909203498723, "Haley Stevens": 46.65960635849946, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.67130160651331 } }, { "county": "Washtenaw", "cid": "fips:26161", "fips": "26161", "percent_reporting": 64.95, "current_votes": 58927, "expected_final_votes": 95302.1212808926, "estimated_remaining_votes": 36375.12128089261, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 61.20946454543993, "Haley Stevens": 35.51075270720484, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.279782747355236 } }, { "county": "Alpena", "cid": "fips:26007", "fips": "26007", "percent_reporting": 58.050000000000004, "current_votes": 2009, "expected_final_votes": 3894.450761167416, "estimated_remaining_votes": 1885.4507611674162, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 48.91621035039038, "Haley Stevens": 45.69664382177678, "Mallory McMorrow": 5.38714582783284 } }, { "county": "Alger", "cid": "fips:26003", "fips": "26003", "percent_reporting": 20.65, "current_votes": 291, "expected_final_votes": 1478.3829746305028, "estimated_remaining_votes": 1187.3829746305028, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 50.83449767567784, "Haley Stevens": 42.1654353180085, "Mallory McMorrow": 7.000067006313648 } }, { "county": "Kalkaska", "cid": "fips:26079", "fips": "26079", "percent_reporting": 89.08, "current_votes": 1468, "expected_final_votes": 1684.3815528881141, "estimated_remaining_votes": 216.38155288811413, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 47.263518679477016, "Haley Stevens": 47.69704388750371, "Mallory McMorrow": 5.039437433019284 } }, { "county": "St. Joseph", "cid": "fips:26149", "fips": "26149", "percent_reporting": 73.25, "current_votes": 4494, "expected_final_votes": 4925.739441741673, "estimated_remaining_votes": 431.73944174167264, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 46.604935451946275, "Haley Stevens": 48.08581535269678, "Mallory McMorrow": 5.309249195356957 } }, { "county": "Emmet", "cid": "fips:26047", "fips": "26047", "percent_reporting": 50.16, "current_votes": 2353, "expected_final_votes": 5135.232900489893, "estimated_remaining_votes": 2782.232900489893, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 52.838138112473764, "Haley Stevens": 42.29819717659093, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.863664710935316 } }, { "county": "Muskegon", "cid": "fips:26121", "fips": "26121", "percent_reporting": 0.0, "current_votes": 0, "expected_final_votes": 24944.417489173677, "estimated_remaining_votes": 24944.417489173677, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 49.66909203498723, "Haley Stevens": 46.65960635849946, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.67130160651331 } }, { "county": "Hillsdale", "cid": "fips:26059", "fips": "26059", "percent_reporting": 54.47, "current_votes": 1571, "expected_final_votes": 2835.1567787725116, "estimated_remaining_votes": 1264.1567787725116, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 45.520790967153474, "Haley Stevens": 48.960517577598424, "Mallory McMorrow": 5.518691455248101 } }, { "county": "Roscommon", "cid": "fips:26143", "fips": "26143", "percent_reporting": 15.72, "current_votes": 484, "expected_final_votes": 3216.255070860492, "estimated_remaining_votes": 2732.255070860492, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 43.32874655718343, "Haley Stevens": 52.489527108150966, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.181726334665617 } }, { "county": "Macomb", "cid": "fips:26099", "fips": "26099", "percent_reporting": 27.41, "current_votes": 31576, "expected_final_votes": 118627.54937106233, "estimated_remaining_votes": 87051.54937106233, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 53.25626067739654, "Haley Stevens": 43.55700290848847, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.1867364141149843 } }, { "county": "Cheboygan", "cid": "fips:26031", "fips": "26031", "percent_reporting": 57.26, "current_votes": 1621, "expected_final_votes": 2898.70340083617, "estimated_remaining_votes": 1277.7034008361702, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 43.920948095313264, "Haley Stevens": 51.8247852252806, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.254266679406138 } }, { "county": "Clare", "cid": "fips:26035", "fips": "26035", "percent_reporting": 24.98, "current_votes": 650, "expected_final_votes": 2816.541410974669, "estimated_remaining_votes": 2166.541410974669, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 42.91417268441911, "Haley Stevens": 52.40442694826015, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.681400367320747 } }, { "county": "Mackinac", "cid": "fips:26097", "fips": "26097", "percent_reporting": 93.9, "current_votes": 1446, "expected_final_votes": 1533.3712885147568, "estimated_remaining_votes": 87.37128851475677, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 46.11639102110533, "Haley Stevens": 48.391395683871394, "Mallory McMorrow": 5.49221329502327 } }, { "county": "Newaygo", "cid": "fips:26123", "fips": "26123", "percent_reporting": 11.7, "current_votes": 474, "expected_final_votes": 3674.745116245081, "estimated_remaining_votes": 3200.745116245081, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 45.885477888108504, "Haley Stevens": 49.8949238266264, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.219598285265098 } }, { "county": "Antrim", "cid": "fips:26009", "fips": "26009", "percent_reporting": 0.0, "current_votes": 0, "expected_final_votes": 3308.801867612957, "estimated_remaining_votes": 3308.801867612957, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 49.66909203498723, "Haley Stevens": 46.65960635849946, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.67130160651331 } }, { "county": "Gogebic", "cid": "fips:26053", "fips": "26053", "percent_reporting": 12.08, "current_votes": 281, "expected_final_votes": 2084.7504679250023, "estimated_remaining_votes": 1803.7504679250023, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 49.35119580006065, "Haley Stevens": 45.03762609733134, "Mallory McMorrow": 5.611178102608012 } }, { "county": "Menominee", "cid": "fips:26109", "fips": "26109", "percent_reporting": 0.0, "current_votes": 0, "expected_final_votes": 2394.3909432300134, "estimated_remaining_votes": 2394.3909432300134, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 49.66909203498723, "Haley Stevens": 46.65960635849946, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.67130160651331 } }, { "county": "Arenac", "cid": "fips:26011", "fips": "26011", "percent_reporting": 0.0, "current_votes": 0, "expected_final_votes": 1502.2465186291217, "estimated_remaining_votes": 1502.2465186291217, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 49.66909203498723, "Haley Stevens": 46.65960635849946, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.67130160651331 } }, { "county": "Gratiot", "cid": "fips:26057", "fips": "26057", "percent_reporting": 52.459999999999994, "current_votes": 1835, "expected_final_votes": 3232.8102766628867, "estimated_remaining_votes": 1397.8102766628867, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 43.13949063303615, "Haley Stevens": 51.269669506765595, "Mallory McMorrow": 5.590839860198256 } }, { "county": "Delta", "cid": "fips:26041", "fips": "26041", "percent_reporting": 89.81, "current_votes": 4266, "expected_final_votes": 4662.775972849321, "estimated_remaining_votes": 396.7759728493211, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 47.34591404694118, "Haley Stevens": 44.47491236405807, "Mallory McMorrow": 8.179173589000738 } } ] } }, "histgeo": { "schema_version": 5, "model": "HISTORICAL_CANDIDATE_GEOGRAPHY", "source": { "race_url": "https://data.americafirstinsight.com/Election2026/output/2026/MI/US_Senate/00/democratic/", "snapshot": "48.json", "snapshot_url": "https://data.americafirstinsight.com/Election2026/output/2026/MI/US_Senate/00/democratic/48.json", "final_url": "https://data.americafirstinsight.com/Election2026/output/2026/MI/US_Senate/00/democratic/latest.json" }, "race_name": "Michigan US Senate Democratic Primary", "state": "MI", "race_type": "US Senate", "scope": "Primary", "timestamp": "2026-08-05T02:52:37.152Z", "percent_reporting_source": 40.4, "votes_reported": 568436, "final_votes_backtest_only": 1528666, "actual_vote_counted_pct_backtest_only": 37.18510125822122, "predicted_leader": "Abdul El-Sayed", "projected_margin_points": 1.9874391116240175, "final_leader": "Abdul El-Sayed", "actual_final_margin_points": 0.9637160766315211, "leader_correct": true, "winner_projection": { "name": "Abdul El-Sayed", "projected_share_points": 49.0992518770975, "final_share_points": 48.478346479871995, "share_error_points": 0.6209053972255063, "projected_margin_points": 1.9874391116240175, "final_margin_points": 0.9637160766315211, "margin_error_points": 1.0237230349924964 }, "runoff_threshold": { "threshold_pct": 50.0, "projected_winner_above_threshold": false, "final_winner_above_threshold": false, "threshold_call_correct": true }, "competitive_state": { "tossup_band_points": 1.0, "projected_state": "WINNER", "final_state": "TOSSUP", "state_call_correct": false }, "final_top_two": [ "Abdul El-Sayed", "Haley Stevens" ], "final_top_two_projected_margin_points": 1.9874391116240175, "final_top_two_margin_error_points": 1.0237230349924964, "candidate_share_mae_points": 0.4139369314836688, "candidate_share_rmse_points": 0.44547646119092726, "projection": [ { "name": "Abdul El-Sayed", "party": "Democratic", "color": "#40247a", "major_candidate": true, "current_votes": 282337, "current_share": 0.4966909203498723, "projected_share": 0.490992518770975, "final_votes": 741072, "final_share": 0.4847834647987199, "share_error_points": 0.6209053972255074 }, { "name": "Haley Stevens", "party": "Democratic", "color": "#339933", "major_candidate": true, "current_votes": 265230, "current_share": 0.4665960635849946, "projected_share": 0.4711181276547348, "final_votes": 726340, "final_share": 0.4751463040324047, "share_error_points": -0.402817637766989 }, { "name": "Mallory McMorrow", "party": "Democratic", "color": "#009f8e", "major_candidate": true, "current_votes": 20869, "current_share": 0.0367130160651331, "projected_share": 0.03788935357429025, "final_votes": 61254, "final_share": 0.04007023116887535, "share_error_points": -0.2180877594585101 } ], "diagnostics": { "method": "Historical candidate geography fits current candidates to centered county over/under-performance patterns from prior primaries. Candidate identities and ideological labels are not transferred.", "uses_final_results_for_projection": false, "uses_final_results_for_scoring_only": true, "reporting_warning": "VoteFlow percent_reporting is used as a reporting-unit completion signal. It is not assumed to equal statewide percent of votes counted.", "historical_candidate_geo": true }, "historical_candidate_geo": { "available": true, "reference_url": "/var/www/html/afi_needle_lab/engine/references/library/mi_democratic_library.json", "historical_elections": 4, "historical_candidate_patterns": 10, "training_counties": 65, "reporting_evidence": 1.0, "mean_pattern_signal": 0.21148803111733314, "cross_validation_available": true, "cross_validation_counties": 65, "cross_validation_mae_points": 4.012445731824946, "cross_validation_score": 0.4821328465755259, "confidence": 0.2730407105115759, "max_ensemble_influence": 0.24249579556172088, "estimated_remaining_votes": 944947.4966413771, "candidate_fits": { "Abdul El-Sayed": { "signal_strength": 0.23884137939213668, "top_patterns": [ { "election_name": "2020-03-10 \u2014 Democratic \u2014 President of the United States 4 Year Term (1) Position", "historical_candidate": "Bernie Sanders", "correlation": 0.7455261255268065, "beta": 1.0706429594765925, "quality": 0.3080075665580759, "common_counties": 64 }, { "election_name": "2020-03-10 \u2014 Democratic \u2014 President of the United States 4 Year Term (1) Position", "historical_candidate": "Joe Biden", "correlation": -0.7446348885481799, "beta": -1.184981939466355, "quality": 0.3076393598331682, "common_counties": 64 }, { "election_name": "2018-08-07 \u2014 Democratic \u2014 Governor 4 Year Term (1) Position", "historical_candidate": "Abdul El-Sayed", "correlation": 0.6229030234292812, "beta": 0.493476110905182, "quality": 0.2260266883183196, "common_counties": 64 }, { "election_name": "2018-08-07 \u2014 Democratic \u2014 Governor 4 Year Term (1) Position", "historical_candidate": "Shri Thanedar", "correlation": -0.614591873897054, "beta": -0.8389186709742015, "quality": 0.22301090330166376, "common_counties": 64 }, { "election_name": "2018-08-07 \u2014 Democratic \u2014 Governor 4 Year Term (1) Position", "historical_candidate": "Gretchen Whitmer", "correlation": -0.3569484738711278, "beta": -0.3606843514737004, "quality": 0.12952237894945604, "common_counties": 64 } ] }, "Haley Stevens": { "signal_strength": 0.21411763164737616, "top_patterns": [ { "election_name": "2020-03-10 \u2014 Democratic \u2014 President of the United States 4 Year Term (1) Position", "historical_candidate": "Bernie Sanders", "correlation": -0.7013186438252051, "beta": -0.9575894654544669, "quality": 0.2897436340192271, "common_counties": 64 }, { "election_name": "2020-03-10 \u2014 Democratic \u2014 President of the United States 4 Year Term (1) Position", "historical_candidate": "Joe Biden", "correlation": 0.6988250295747381, "beta": 1.0573505106340284, "quality": 0.28871341920726706, "common_counties": 64 }, { "election_name": "2018-08-07 \u2014 Democratic \u2014 Governor 4 Year Term (1) Position", "historical_candidate": "Shri Thanedar", "correlation": 0.5393239614727245, "beta": 0.6999466499996349, "quality": 0.19569917684985605, "common_counties": 64 }, { "election_name": "2018-08-07 \u2014 Democratic \u2014 Governor 4 Year Term (1) Position", "historical_candidate": "Abdul El-Sayed", "correlation": -0.5279320293499709, "beta": -0.3976544829058659, "quality": 0.1915654985814836, "common_counties": 64 }, { "election_name": "2018-08-07 \u2014 Democratic \u2014 Governor 4 Year Term (1) Position", "historical_candidate": "Gretchen Whitmer", "correlation": 0.28899957136490007, "beta": 0.2776522177443187, "quality": 0.10486642957904709, "common_counties": 64 } ] }, "Mallory McMorrow": { "signal_strength": 0.18150508231248647, "top_patterns": [ { "election_name": "2018-08-07 \u2014 Democratic \u2014 Governor 4 Year Term (1) Position", "historical_candidate": "Abdul El-Sayed", "correlation": -0.6115377320154063, "beta": -0.09582162799931616, "quality": 0.22190267690172963, "common_counties": 64 }, { "election_name": "2018-08-07 \u2014 Democratic \u2014 Governor 4 Year Term (1) Position", "historical_candidate": "Shri Thanedar", "correlation": 0.5147540051182744, "beta": 0.1389720209745667, "quality": 0.1867837186516466, "common_counties": 64 }, { "election_name": "2020-03-10 \u2014 Democratic \u2014 President of the United States 4 Year Term (1) Position", "historical_candidate": "Joe Biden", "correlation": 0.405503575589287, "beta": 0.12763142883232714, "quality": 0.16753023840660053, "common_counties": 64 }, { "election_name": "2024-02-27 \u2014 DEMOCRATIC \u2014 PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES 4 YEAR TERM (1) POSITION", "historical_candidate": "Uncommitted", "correlation": -0.4249539855147144, "beta": -0.21939255805528757, "quality": 0.16686928921632543, "common_counties": 65 }, { "election_name": "2020-03-10 \u2014 Democratic \u2014 President of the United States 4 Year Term (1) Position", "historical_candidate": "Bernie Sanders", "correlation": -0.3980224772725068, "beta": -0.11305349402212642, "quality": 0.16443948838613012, "common_counties": 64 } ] } }, "counties": [ { "county": "Wayne", "cid": "fips:26163", "reporting": 22.97, "current_votes": 69886, "estimated_remaining_votes": 243867.3379252507, "projected_remaining_leader": "Haley Stevens", "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 42.039183939722555, "Haley Stevens": 54.19235074965813, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.7684653106193227 } }, { "county": "Macomb", "cid": "fips:26099", "reporting": 27.41, "current_votes": 31576, "estimated_remaining_votes": 87051.54937106233, "projected_remaining_leader": "Abdul El-Sayed", "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 53.12248600872896, "Haley Stevens": 43.56946823381821, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.308045757452824 } }, { "county": "Genesee", "cid": "fips:26049", "reporting": 3.4300000000000006, "current_votes": 2213, "estimated_remaining_votes": 64183.37937851738, "projected_remaining_leader": "Abdul El-Sayed", "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 48.79051895950185, "Haley Stevens": 47.2183615623654, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.9911194781327395 } }, { "county": "Oakland", "cid": "fips:26125", "reporting": 76.49, "current_votes": 189661, "estimated_remaining_votes": 58294.288272976875, "projected_remaining_leader": "Haley Stevens", "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 47.71659668376283, "Haley Stevens": 49.40867309632232, "Mallory McMorrow": 2.874730219914852 } }, { "county": "Kent", "cid": "fips:26081", "reporting": 53.71, "current_votes": 44593, "estimated_remaining_votes": 46918.32971673878, "projected_remaining_leader": "Abdul El-Sayed", "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 61.06517094947074, "Haley Stevens": 35.240976022173164, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.6938530283561004 } }, { "county": "Kalamazoo", "cid": "fips:26077", "reporting": 3.45, "current_votes": 1425, "estimated_remaining_votes": 42085.15108479823, "projected_remaining_leader": "Abdul El-Sayed", "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 50.06872566977848, "Haley Stevens": 45.945461955212984, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.985812375008542 } }, { "county": "Ingham", "cid": "fips:26065", "reporting": 34.23, "current_votes": 18881, "estimated_remaining_votes": 38632.62316125496, "projected_remaining_leader": "Abdul El-Sayed", "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 59.19896345841974, "Haley Stevens": 37.00984099343226, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.7911955481479875 } }, { "county": "Washtenaw", "cid": "fips:26161", "reporting": 64.95, "current_votes": 58927, "estimated_remaining_votes": 36375.12128089261, "projected_remaining_leader": "Abdul El-Sayed", "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 61.634517447586845, "Haley Stevens": 35.09825884201042, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.2672237104027424 } }, { "county": "Muskegon", "cid": "fips:26121", "reporting": 0.0, "current_votes": 0, "estimated_remaining_votes": 24944.417489173677, "projected_remaining_leader": "Abdul El-Sayed", "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 48.86745331167385, "Haley Stevens": 47.07345622362358, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.059090464702572 } }, { "county": "Saginaw", "cid": "fips:26145", "reporting": 16.6, "current_votes": 4432, "estimated_remaining_votes": 24686.364928707186, "projected_remaining_leader": "Haley Stevens", "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 46.23599051411386, "Haley Stevens": 49.374378458875356, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.389631027010772 } }, { "county": "Bay", "cid": "fips:26017", "reporting": 5.77, "current_votes": 926, "estimated_remaining_votes": 15508.356874900292, "projected_remaining_leader": "Abdul El-Sayed", "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 48.639174198598205, "Haley Stevens": 47.086364674403946, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.274461126997855 } }, { "county": "Jackson", "cid": "fips:26075", "reporting": 3.46, "current_votes": 581, "estimated_remaining_votes": 15316.60702633344, "projected_remaining_leader": "Haley Stevens", "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 47.812721180124086, "Haley Stevens": 48.06720587355889, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.120072946317026 } }, { "county": "Berrien", "cid": "fips:26021", "reporting": 9.46, "current_votes": 1294, "estimated_remaining_votes": 15056.65577827919, "projected_remaining_leader": "Abdul El-Sayed", "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 51.697134957752546, "Haley Stevens": 43.767459238812215, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.535405803435238 } }, { "county": "Ottawa", "cid": "fips:26139", "reporting": 38.53, "current_votes": 9627, "estimated_remaining_votes": 14785.060276468925, "projected_remaining_leader": "Abdul El-Sayed", "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 52.33424920461866, "Haley Stevens": 43.39101754696648, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.274733248414863 } }, { "county": "Marquette", "cid": "fips:26103", "reporting": 0.0, "current_votes": 0, "estimated_remaining_votes": 13575.142700457824, "projected_remaining_leader": "Abdul El-Sayed", "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 50.050320409962424, "Haley Stevens": 46.05455163409896, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.8951279559386243 } }, { "county": "Monroe", "cid": "fips:26115", "reporting": 20.1, "current_votes": 3167, "estimated_remaining_votes": 13427.800539038479, "projected_remaining_leader": "Haley Stevens", "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 46.844872001442525, "Haley Stevens": 48.60026308898521, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.55486490957226 } }, { "county": "Allegan", "cid": "fips:26005", "reporting": 0.0, "current_votes": 0, "estimated_remaining_votes": 12233.214980259478, "projected_remaining_leader": "Abdul El-Sayed", "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 49.14990068162037, "Haley Stevens": 46.877026930714024, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.973072387665598 } }, { "county": "Clinton", "cid": "fips:26037", "reporting": 0.11, "current_votes": 11, "estimated_remaining_votes": 12041.099798507375, "projected_remaining_leader": "Abdul El-Sayed", "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 49.39579286872798, "Haley Stevens": 46.695863473844426, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.908343657427589 } }, { "county": "Calhoun", "cid": "fips:26025", "reporting": 7.2700000000000005, "current_votes": 918, "estimated_remaining_votes": 11811.954356962822, "projected_remaining_leader": "Abdul El-Sayed", "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 47.82171258284078, "Haley Stevens": 47.79573801810169, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.382549399057539 } }, { "county": "Grand Traverse", "cid": "fips:26055", "reporting": 6.860000000000001, "current_votes": 1147, "estimated_remaining_votes": 11235.868104134455, "projected_remaining_leader": "Abdul El-Sayed", "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 52.62143339936578, "Haley Stevens": 43.67251579907974, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.7060508015544906 } }, { "county": "St. Clair", "cid": "fips:26147", "reporting": 34.81, "current_votes": 6209, "estimated_remaining_votes": 10755.18585599924, "projected_remaining_leader": "Haley Stevens", "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 45.74177143414233, "Haley Stevens": 50.120206853024854, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.138021712832829 } }, { "county": "Lenawee", "cid": "fips:26091", "reporting": 0.0, "current_votes": 0, "estimated_remaining_votes": 9669.598638685868, "projected_remaining_leader": "Abdul El-Sayed", "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 49.575444064609464, "Haley Stevens": 46.53459988244582, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.889956052944718 } }, { "county": "Lapeer", "cid": "fips:26087", "reporting": 7.41, "current_votes": 685, "estimated_remaining_votes": 8180.641770206288, "projected_remaining_leader": "Haley Stevens", "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 45.95249915556065, "Haley Stevens": 50.02852157421065, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.018979270228703 } }, { "county": "Midland", "cid": "fips:26111", "reporting": 38.17, "current_votes": 3780, "estimated_remaining_votes": 7037.057104082069, "projected_remaining_leader": "Haley Stevens", "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 44.959830285528966, "Haley Stevens": 50.61615018167678, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.42401953279426 } }, { "county": "Van Buren", "cid": "fips:26159", "reporting": 21.44, "current_votes": 1748, "estimated_remaining_votes": 6516.409355732236, "projected_remaining_leader": "Haley Stevens", "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 47.29787907313362, "Haley Stevens": 48.5237364729025, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.178384453963882 } }, { "county": "Isabella", "cid": "fips:26073", "reporting": 23.48, "current_votes": 1752, "estimated_remaining_votes": 6240.3953919174755, "projected_remaining_leader": "Abdul El-Sayed", "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 49.52196412941391, "Haley Stevens": 45.9528582162092, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.525177654376894 } }, { "county": "Leelanau", "cid": "fips:26089", "reporting": 15.83, "current_votes": 903, "estimated_remaining_votes": 5496.342097041341, "projected_remaining_leader": "Abdul El-Sayed", "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 51.64703171426343, "Haley Stevens": 44.87538478750877, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.477583498227796 } }, { "county": "Gd. Traverse", "cid": "name:gd_traverse", "reporting": 0.0, "current_votes": 0, "estimated_remaining_votes": 5156.92134952329, "projected_remaining_leader": "Abdul El-Sayed", "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 50.67529227550887, "Haley Stevens": 45.614239187712776, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.710468536778343 } }, { "county": "Livingston", "cid": "fips:26093", "reporting": 80.73, "current_votes": 21490, "estimated_remaining_votes": 5033.181154902108, "projected_remaining_leader": "Abdul El-Sayed", "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 50.61850774186075, "Haley Stevens": 45.54952128973251, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.8319709684067464 } }, { "county": "Shiawassee", "cid": "fips:26155", "reporting": 44.43, "current_votes": 3588, "estimated_remaining_votes": 4949.64208510183, "projected_remaining_leader": "Haley Stevens", "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 42.72265204127268, "Haley Stevens": 51.42178817622, "Mallory McMorrow": 5.855559782507323 } }, { "county": "Manistee", "cid": "fips:26101", "reporting": 0.0, "current_votes": 0, "estimated_remaining_votes": 3791.242696224088, "projected_remaining_leader": "Abdul El-Sayed", "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 48.75391880508872, "Haley Stevens": 47.21529646025545, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.030784734655818 } }, { "county": "Houghton", "cid": "fips:26061", "reporting": 25.489999999999995, "current_votes": 1059, "estimated_remaining_votes": 3345.74264210606, "projected_remaining_leader": "Abdul El-Sayed", "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 50.17545621622258, "Haley Stevens": 44.57178907861815, "Mallory McMorrow": 5.252754705159267 } }, { "county": "Antrim", "cid": "fips:26009", "reporting": 0.0, "current_votes": 0, "estimated_remaining_votes": 3308.801867612957, "projected_remaining_leader": "Abdul El-Sayed", "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 49.384996793094786, "Haley Stevens": 46.68419087704887, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.9308123298563467 } }, { "county": "Newaygo", "cid": "fips:26123", "reporting": 11.7, "current_votes": 474, "estimated_remaining_votes": 3200.745116245081, "projected_remaining_leader": "Haley Stevens", "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 45.24067716340856, "Haley Stevens": 50.289524263061445, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.469798573529992 } }, { "county": "Benzie", "cid": "fips:26019", "reporting": 24.01, "current_votes": 765, "estimated_remaining_votes": 3174.612088011311, "projected_remaining_leader": "Abdul El-Sayed", "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 53.42675917780909, "Haley Stevens": 42.655971299822426, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.917269522368493 } }, { "county": "Emmet", "cid": "fips:26047", "reporting": 50.16, "current_votes": 2353, "estimated_remaining_votes": 2782.232900489893, "projected_remaining_leader": "Abdul El-Sayed", "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 52.84145745077515, "Haley Stevens": 42.22609464989786, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.932447899326984 } }, { "county": "Dickinson", "cid": "fips:26043", "reporting": 0.0, "current_votes": 0, "estimated_remaining_votes": 2771.437006206097, "projected_remaining_leader": "Haley Stevens", "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 47.910932401013184, "Haley Stevens": 47.93288919432388, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.15617840466293 } }, { "county": "Roscommon", "cid": "fips:26143", "reporting": 15.72, "current_votes": 484, "estimated_remaining_votes": 2732.255070860492, "projected_remaining_leader": "Haley Stevens", "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 42.23779373056076, "Haley Stevens": 53.30123165059779, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.460974618841467 } }, { "county": "Mason", "cid": "fips:26105", "reporting": 20.12, "current_votes": 718, "estimated_remaining_votes": 2726.660439539037, "projected_remaining_leader": "Abdul El-Sayed", "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 48.5181567888567, "Haley Stevens": 46.921179382112946, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.560663829030363 } }, { "county": "Tuscola", "cid": "fips:26157", "reporting": 41.07, "current_votes": 2125, "estimated_remaining_votes": 2618.943835602582, "projected_remaining_leader": "Haley Stevens", "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 41.002149673480695, "Haley Stevens": 53.245057282077546, "Mallory McMorrow": 5.75279304444176 } }, { "county": "Gladwin", "cid": "fips:26051", "reporting": 0.0, "current_votes": 0, "estimated_remaining_votes": 2590.3361413120724, "projected_remaining_leader": "Haley Stevens", "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 47.434377181661034, "Haley Stevens": 48.428329675165635, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.137293143173326 } }, { "county": "Menominee", "cid": "fips:26109", "reporting": 0.0, "current_votes": 0, "estimated_remaining_votes": 2394.3909432300134, "projected_remaining_leader": "Haley Stevens", "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 47.872823540922, "Haley Stevens": 48.03114157191438, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.096034887163615 } }, { "county": "Ogemaw", "cid": "fips:26129", "reporting": 0.0, "current_votes": 0, "estimated_remaining_votes": 2287.5117442761625, "projected_remaining_leader": "Abdul El-Sayed", "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 47.96172067002528, "Haley Stevens": 47.90882758327433, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.129451746700388 } }, { "county": "Clare", "cid": "fips:26035", "reporting": 24.98, "current_votes": 650, "estimated_remaining_votes": 2166.541410974669, "projected_remaining_leader": "Haley Stevens", "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 42.347107725855295, "Haley Stevens": 52.76817782132552, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.884714452819174 } }, { "county": "Barry", "cid": "fips:26015", "reporting": 51.57000000000001, "current_votes": 3040, "estimated_remaining_votes": 2084.356984925492, "projected_remaining_leader": "Haley Stevens", "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 42.83028608050756, "Haley Stevens": 51.892089989216686, "Mallory McMorrow": 5.277623930275756 } }, { "county": "Montcalm", "cid": "fips:26117", "reporting": 63.12, "current_votes": 3207, "estimated_remaining_votes": 2083.0147443372043, "projected_remaining_leader": "Haley Stevens", "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 41.79829673402546, "Haley Stevens": 54.30649730939293, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.895205956581607 } }, { "county": "Alpena", "cid": "fips:26007", "reporting": 58.050000000000004, "current_votes": 2009, "estimated_remaining_votes": 1885.4507611674162, "projected_remaining_leader": "Abdul El-Sayed", "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 48.51290422642425, "Haley Stevens": 45.999227798235275, "Mallory McMorrow": 5.487867975340476 } }, { "county": "Gogebic", "cid": "fips:26053", "reporting": 12.08, "current_votes": 281, "estimated_remaining_votes": 1803.7504679250023, "projected_remaining_leader": "Abdul El-Sayed", "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 48.02886135645555, "Haley Stevens": 46.037019583785735, "Mallory McMorrow": 5.934119059758729 } }, { "county": "Iron", "cid": "fips:26071", "reporting": 0.0, "current_votes": 0, "estimated_remaining_votes": 1664.049750378701, "projected_remaining_leader": "Haley Stevens", "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 47.2783350420612, "Haley Stevens": 48.45566543288988, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.265999525048927 } }, { "county": "Sanilac", "cid": "fips:26151", "reporting": 47.64, "current_votes": 1531, "estimated_remaining_votes": 1585.2325585258732, "projected_remaining_leader": "Haley Stevens", "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 40.28906453972078, "Haley Stevens": 55.79910347771211, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.9118319825671213 } }, { "county": "Wexford", "cid": "fips:26165", "reporting": 44.65, "current_votes": 1194, "estimated_remaining_votes": 1555.6611022108018, "projected_remaining_leader": "Haley Stevens", "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 45.761477797501136, "Haley Stevens": 50.06211710609122, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.176405096407641 } }, { "county": "Arenac", "cid": "fips:26011", "reporting": 0.0, "current_votes": 0, "estimated_remaining_votes": 1502.2465186291217, "projected_remaining_leader": "Haley Stevens", "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 47.33230323808073, "Haley Stevens": 48.48382112944863, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.18387563247064 } }, { "county": "Eaton", "cid": "fips:26045", "reporting": 92.34, "current_votes": 15102, "estimated_remaining_votes": 1484.270588417996, "projected_remaining_leader": "Abdul El-Sayed", "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 47.78362957510546, "Haley Stevens": 46.45089621419219, "Mallory McMorrow": 5.765474210702365 } }, { "county": "Presque Isle", "cid": "fips:26141", "reporting": 21.17, "current_votes": 344, "estimated_remaining_votes": 1451.5801453614304, "projected_remaining_leader": "Haley Stevens", "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 39.624538165771185, "Haley Stevens": 55.68716528960278, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.6882965446260405 } }, { "county": "Gratiot", "cid": "fips:26057", "reporting": 52.459999999999994, "current_votes": 1835, "estimated_remaining_votes": 1397.8102766628867, "projected_remaining_leader": "Haley Stevens", "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 42.8943849221791, "Haley Stevens": 51.42757033721348, "Mallory McMorrow": 5.678044740607434 } }, { "county": "Branch", "cid": "fips:26023", "reporting": 45.38, "current_votes": 1514, "estimated_remaining_votes": 1328.9638581037907, "projected_remaining_leader": "Haley Stevens", "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 41.02758409418454, "Haley Stevens": 54.13551283305984, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.836903072755632 } }, { "county": "Cheboygan", "cid": "fips:26031", "reporting": 57.26, "current_votes": 1621, "estimated_remaining_votes": 1277.7034008361702, "projected_remaining_leader": "Haley Stevens", "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 43.50895501995403, "Haley Stevens": 52.13186081141321, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.359184168632757 } }, { "county": "Hillsdale", "cid": "fips:26059", "reporting": 54.47, "current_votes": 1571, "estimated_remaining_votes": 1264.1567787725116, "projected_remaining_leader": "Haley Stevens", "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 45.14441478986888, "Haley Stevens": 49.22047676182145, "Mallory McMorrow": 5.635108448309662 } }, { "county": "Oceana", "cid": "fips:26127", "reporting": 51.29, "current_votes": 1350, "estimated_remaining_votes": 1240.3814241764385, "projected_remaining_leader": "Haley Stevens", "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 41.83983035054953, "Haley Stevens": 54.453285601264014, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.7068840481864567 } }, { "county": "Alger", "cid": "fips:26003", "reporting": 20.65, "current_votes": 291, "estimated_remaining_votes": 1187.3829746305028, "projected_remaining_leader": "Abdul El-Sayed", "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 50.02025726553765, "Haley Stevens": 42.72180194550753, "Mallory McMorrow": 7.25794078895481 } }, { "county": "Ionia", "cid": "fips:26067", "reporting": 53.0, "current_votes": 5141, "estimated_remaining_votes": 1155.4377744995945, "projected_remaining_leader": "Abdul El-Sayed", "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 48.204903729522506, "Haley Stevens": 47.77756542932068, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.017530841156821 } }, { "county": "Schoolcraft", "cid": "fips:26153", "reporting": 0.0, "current_votes": 0, "estimated_remaining_votes": 987.1481570043142, "projected_remaining_leader": "Haley Stevens", "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 47.13166230601737, "Haley Stevens": 48.630375191318585, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.2379625026640415 } }, { "county": "Montmorency", "cid": "fips:26119", "reporting": 0.0, "current_votes": 0, "estimated_remaining_votes": 970.8193904974759, "projected_remaining_leader": "Haley Stevens", "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 47.083022669823315, "Haley Stevens": 48.67077703665312, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.246200293523575 } }, { "county": "Otsego", "cid": "fips:26137", "reporting": 70.99, "current_votes": 1730, "estimated_remaining_votes": 852.2585725086306, "projected_remaining_leader": "Haley Stevens", "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 46.554212542912154, "Haley Stevens": 48.72602310561642, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.719764351471431 } }, { "county": "Ontonagon", "cid": "fips:26131", "reporting": 15.380000000000003, "current_votes": 134, "estimated_remaining_votes": 850.4069201533449, "projected_remaining_leader": "Abdul El-Sayed", "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 48.103667625553726, "Haley Stevens": 46.42961371246579, "Mallory McMorrow": 5.466718661980475 } }, { "county": "Chippewa", "cid": "fips:26033", "reporting": 77.91, "current_votes": 2769, "estimated_remaining_votes": 767.4548380501774, "projected_remaining_leader": "Abdul El-Sayed", "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 47.72547567703806, "Haley Stevens": 46.513059211503226, "Mallory McMorrow": 5.761465111458708 } }, { "county": "Iosco", "cid": "fips:26069", "reporting": 68.61, "current_votes": 3460, "estimated_remaining_votes": 613.2913002151113, "projected_remaining_leader": "Haley Stevens", "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 40.17258303048149, "Haley Stevens": 54.60723617929531, "Mallory McMorrow": 5.220180790223199 } }, { "county": "Lake", "cid": "fips:26085", "reporting": 61.51, "current_votes": 799, "estimated_remaining_votes": 506.3753173110222, "projected_remaining_leader": "Haley Stevens", "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 37.22186813750956, "Haley Stevens": 57.54241538464595, "Mallory McMorrow": 5.235716477844491 } }, { "county": "St. Joseph", "cid": "fips:26149", "reporting": 73.25, "current_votes": 4494, "estimated_remaining_votes": 431.73944174167264, "projected_remaining_leader": "Haley Stevens", "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 46.31166477584951, "Haley Stevens": 48.21811901510307, "Mallory McMorrow": 5.47021620904742 } }, { "county": "Delta", "cid": "fips:26041", "reporting": 89.81, "current_votes": 4266, "estimated_remaining_votes": 396.7759728493211, "projected_remaining_leader": "Abdul El-Sayed", "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 46.84408710175875, "Haley Stevens": 44.25725698840483, "Mallory McMorrow": 8.898655909836409 } }, { "county": "Baraga", "cid": "fips:26013", "reporting": 66.21, "current_votes": 527, "estimated_remaining_votes": 336.3151388567894, "projected_remaining_leader": "Haley Stevens", "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 44.04840225683205, "Haley Stevens": 47.616626965394474, "Mallory McMorrow": 8.334970777773474 } }, { "county": "Crawford", "cid": "fips:26039", "reporting": 81.36, "current_votes": 1135, "estimated_remaining_votes": 288.24888430558144, "projected_remaining_leader": "Haley Stevens", "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 41.04767471746021, "Haley Stevens": 52.58906985892297, "Mallory McMorrow": 6.363255423616818 } }, { "county": "Huron", "cid": "fips:26063", "reporting": 91.36, "current_votes": 2200, "estimated_remaining_votes": 251.93734469721267, "projected_remaining_leader": "Haley Stevens", "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 35.60409417555423, "Haley Stevens": 58.79584650075014, "Mallory McMorrow": 5.600059323695635 } }, { "county": "Kalkaska", "cid": "fips:26079", "reporting": 89.08, "current_votes": 1468, "estimated_remaining_votes": 216.38155288811413, "projected_remaining_leader": "Haley Stevens", "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 46.858171760678005, "Haley Stevens": 47.86995333939609, "Mallory McMorrow": 5.271874899925896 } }, { "county": "Charlevoix", "cid": "fips:26029", "reporting": 96.98, "current_votes": 3339, "estimated_remaining_votes": 160.47713631203942, "projected_remaining_leader": "Abdul El-Sayed", "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 49.416515408281334, "Haley Stevens": 45.82906130924363, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.754423282475039 } }, { "county": "Mackinac", "cid": "fips:26097", "reporting": 93.9, "current_votes": 1446, "estimated_remaining_votes": 87.37128851475677, "projected_remaining_leader": "Haley Stevens", "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 45.49561783551779, "Haley Stevens": 48.7107900291801, "Mallory McMorrow": 5.793592135302112 } }, { "county": "Cass", "cid": "fips:26027", "reporting": 99.0, "current_votes": 3505, "estimated_remaining_votes": 77.55888915228525, "projected_remaining_leader": "Haley Stevens", "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 45.28229790547117, "Haley Stevens": 45.62833013720316, "Mallory McMorrow": 9.089371957325675 } }, { "county": "Missaukee", "cid": "fips:26113", "reporting": 93.37, "current_votes": 943, "estimated_remaining_votes": 70.12569231661234, "projected_remaining_leader": "Haley Stevens", "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 38.18995677997389, "Haley Stevens": 55.43317804283826, "Mallory McMorrow": 6.37686517718784 } }, { "county": "Mecosta", "cid": "fips:26107", "reporting": 98.54, "current_votes": 3431, "estimated_remaining_votes": 69.15789552562956, "projected_remaining_leader": "Haley Stevens", "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 45.12995364233194, "Haley Stevens": 50.424747902765546, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.445298454902523 } }, { "county": "Alcona", "cid": "fips:26001", "reporting": 96.49, "current_votes": 1237, "estimated_remaining_votes": 44.608029818520436, "projected_remaining_leader": "Haley Stevens", "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 42.298347028274776, "Haley Stevens": 49.85468355009293, "Mallory McMorrow": 7.846969421632295 } }, { "county": "Keweenaw", "cid": "fips:26083", "reporting": 92.62, "current_votes": 414, "estimated_remaining_votes": 35.70628898706627, "projected_remaining_leader": "Abdul El-Sayed", "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 51.92238412533457, "Haley Stevens": 42.20293552184021, "Mallory McMorrow": 5.8746803528252265 } }, { "county": "Osceola", "cid": "fips:26133", "reporting": 99.0, "current_votes": 1571, "estimated_remaining_votes": 19.133493263277842, "projected_remaining_leader": "Haley Stevens", "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 41.01581967318032, "Haley Stevens": 52.56906910907158, "Mallory McMorrow": 6.4151112177481 } }, { "county": "Luce", "cid": "fips:26095", "reporting": 99.0, "current_votes": 407, "estimated_remaining_votes": 5.603236249659915, "projected_remaining_leader": "Haley Stevens", "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 43.18651554854869, "Haley Stevens": 49.25512231036174, "Mallory McMorrow": 7.5583621410895585 } }, { "county": "Oscoda", "cid": "fips:26135", "reporting": 99.0, "current_votes": 1082, "estimated_remaining_votes": 0.0, "projected_remaining_leader": "Haley Stevens", "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 38.832278228878046, "Haley Stevens": 57.522327380619664, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.645394390502292 } } ], "method_note": "Patterns are centered within historical races, so the model learns geographic coalition structure rather than historical statewide winners." } }, "latent": { "schema_version": 5, "model": "V6_LATENT_COALITION_FACTORS", "source": { "race_url": "https://data.americafirstinsight.com/Election2026/output/2026/MI/US_Senate/00/democratic/", "snapshot": "48.json", "snapshot_url": "https://data.americafirstinsight.com/Election2026/output/2026/MI/US_Senate/00/democratic/48.json", "final_url": "https://data.americafirstinsight.com/Election2026/output/2026/MI/US_Senate/00/democratic/latest.json" }, "race_name": "Michigan US Senate Democratic Primary", "state": "MI", "race_type": "US Senate", "scope": "Primary", "timestamp": "2026-08-05T02:52:37.152Z", "percent_reporting_source": 40.4, "votes_reported": 568436, "final_votes_backtest_only": 1528666, "actual_vote_counted_pct_backtest_only": 37.18510125822122, "predicted_leader": "Abdul El-Sayed", "projected_margin_points": 1.730936529206023, "final_leader": "Abdul El-Sayed", "actual_final_margin_points": 0.9637160766315211, "leader_correct": true, "winner_projection": { "name": "Abdul El-Sayed", "projected_share_points": 48.915283796936215, "final_share_points": 48.478346479871995, "share_error_points": 0.43693731706422057, "projected_margin_points": 1.730936529206023, "final_margin_points": 0.9637160766315211, "margin_error_points": 0.7672204525745019 }, "runoff_threshold": { "threshold_pct": 50.0, "projected_winner_above_threshold": false, "final_winner_above_threshold": false, "threshold_call_correct": true }, "competitive_state": { "tossup_band_points": 1.0, "projected_state": "WINNER", "final_state": "TOSSUP", "state_call_correct": false }, "final_top_two": [ "Abdul El-Sayed", "Haley Stevens" ], "final_top_two_projected_margin_points": 1.730936529206023, "final_top_two_margin_error_points": 0.7672204525745019, "candidate_share_mae_points": 0.29129154470948654, "candidate_share_rmse_points": 0.32216780466537787, "projection": [ { "name": "Abdul El-Sayed", "party": "Democratic", "color": "#40247a", "major_candidate": true, "current_votes": 282337, "current_share": 0.4966909203498723, "projected_share": 0.48915283796936215, "final_votes": 741072, "final_share": 0.4847834647987199, "share_error_points": 0.43693731706422323 }, { "name": "Haley Stevens", "party": "Democratic", "color": "#339933", "major_candidate": true, "current_votes": 265230, "current_share": 0.4665960635849946, "projected_share": 0.4718434726773019, "final_votes": 726340, "final_share": 0.4751463040324047, "share_error_points": -0.33028313551027866 }, { "name": "Mallory McMorrow", "party": "Democratic", "color": "#009f8e", "major_candidate": true, "current_votes": 20869, "current_share": 0.0367130160651331, "projected_share": 0.03900368935333577, "final_votes": 61254, "final_share": 0.04007023116887535, "share_error_points": -0.10665418155395776 } ], "diagnostics": { "method": "V6 compresses many historical candidate county maps into orthogonal latent coalition factors, then ridge-fits current candidates to those factors with held-out county validation.", "uses_final_results_for_projection": false, "uses_final_results_for_scoring_only": true, "reporting_warning": "VoteFlow percent_reporting is used as a reporting-unit completion signal. It is not assumed to equal statewide percent of votes counted.", "specialist": "latent_coalition" }, "latent_coalition": { "available": true, "historical_patterns": 10, "factors": 4, "training_counties": 65, "training_evidence": 1.0, "cross_validation_available": true, "cross_validation_counties": 65, "cross_validation_mae_points": 4.9638152794908645, "cross_validation_score": 0.3705514209458427, "confidence": 0.5908584236147978, "max_ensemble_influence": 0.2527090325013272, "estimated_remaining_votes": 944947.4966413771, "factor_names": [ "factor_1", "factor_2", "factor_3", "factor_4" ], "counties": [ { "cid": "fips:26093", "county": "Livingston", "reporting": 80.73, "current_votes": 21490, "estimated_remaining_votes": 5033.181154902108, "prediction_informative": true, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 50.5170309776904, "Haley Stevens": 45.610506441416895, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.872462580892708 } }, { "cid": "fips:26025", "county": "Calhoun", "reporting": 7.2700000000000005, "current_votes": 918, "estimated_remaining_votes": 11811.954356962822, "prediction_informative": true, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 47.59839500429465, "Haley Stevens": 47.82944807244328, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.5721569232620745 } }, { "cid": "fips:26147", "county": "St. Clair", "reporting": 34.81, "current_votes": 6209, "estimated_remaining_votes": 10755.18585599924, "prediction_informative": true, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 45.4446743613254, "Haley Stevens": 50.27798191583492, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.2773437228396824 } }, { "cid": "fips:26089", "county": "Leelanau", "reporting": 15.83, "current_votes": 903, "estimated_remaining_votes": 5496.342097041341, "prediction_informative": true, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 51.09018185144313, "Haley Stevens": 45.179787420550646, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.7300307280062235 } }, { "cid": "fips:26127", "county": "Oceana", "reporting": 51.29, "current_votes": 1350, "estimated_remaining_votes": 1240.3814241764385, "prediction_informative": true, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 41.911235509734134, "Haley Stevens": 54.32288246043064, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.7658820298352254 } }, { "cid": "fips:26157", "county": "Tuscola", "reporting": 41.07, "current_votes": 2125, "estimated_remaining_votes": 2618.943835602582, "prediction_informative": true, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 41.16761764779243, "Haley Stevens": 53.00831006836404, "Mallory McMorrow": 5.8240722838435275 } }, { "cid": "fips:26027", "county": "Cass", "reporting": 99.0, "current_votes": 3505, "estimated_remaining_votes": 77.55888915228525, "prediction_informative": true, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 45.40801543306597, "Haley Stevens": 45.58650798535755, "Mallory McMorrow": 9.005476581576488 } }, { "cid": "fips:26021", "county": "Berrien", "reporting": 9.46, "current_votes": 1294, "estimated_remaining_votes": 15056.65577827919, "prediction_informative": true, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 51.65086351889682, "Haley Stevens": 43.59630731765034, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.75282916345284 } }, { "cid": "fips:26083", "county": "Keweenaw", "reporting": 92.62, "current_votes": 414, "estimated_remaining_votes": 35.70628898706627, "prediction_informative": true, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 51.820927830312144, "Haley Stevens": 42.315370252318736, "Mallory McMorrow": 5.863701917369119 } }, { "cid": "fips:26087", "county": "Lapeer", "reporting": 7.41, "current_votes": 685, "estimated_remaining_votes": 8180.641770206288, "prediction_informative": true, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 45.63792136844839, "Haley Stevens": 50.12466619047022, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.2374124410813865 } }, { "cid": "fips:26019", "county": "Benzie", "reporting": 24.01, "current_votes": 765, "estimated_remaining_votes": 3174.612088011311, "prediction_informative": true, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 52.8536563761965, "Haley Stevens": 43.03554510053726, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.110798523266248 } }, { "cid": "fips:26061", "county": "Houghton", "reporting": 25.489999999999995, "current_votes": 1059, "estimated_remaining_votes": 3345.74264210606, "prediction_informative": true, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 49.37182055245163, "Haley Stevens": 45.17072763700284, "Mallory McMorrow": 5.4574518105455185 } }, { "cid": "fips:26163", "county": "Wayne", "reporting": 22.97, "current_votes": 69886, "estimated_remaining_votes": 243867.3379252507, "prediction_informative": true, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 41.81777304861808, "Haley Stevens": 54.23378374217225, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.9484432092096804 } }, { "cid": "fips:26037", "county": "Clinton", "reporting": 0.11, "current_votes": 11, "estimated_remaining_votes": 12041.099798507375, "prediction_informative": true, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 49.39798365776477, "Haley Stevens": 46.44704578008658, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.154970562148655 } }, { "cid": "fips:26015", "county": "Barry", "reporting": 51.57000000000001, "current_votes": 3040, "estimated_remaining_votes": 2084.356984925492, "prediction_informative": true, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 42.67271279153954, "Haley Stevens": 51.96069488959941, "Mallory McMorrow": 5.366592318861058 } }, { "cid": "fips:26153", "county": "Schoolcraft", "reporting": 0.0, "current_votes": 0, "estimated_remaining_votes": 987.1481570043142, "prediction_informative": true, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 48.617966113525576, "Haley Stevens": 47.08816408022341, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.293869806251021 } }, { "cid": "fips:26165", "county": "Wexford", "reporting": 44.65, "current_votes": 1194, "estimated_remaining_votes": 1555.6611022108018, "prediction_informative": true, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 45.51567274918501, "Haley Stevens": 50.20614756311912, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.278179687695886 } }, { "cid": "fips:26133", "county": "Osceola", "reporting": 99.0, "current_votes": 1571, "estimated_remaining_votes": 19.133493263277842, "prediction_informative": true, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 41.18144934909113, "Haley Stevens": 52.43096686851592, "Mallory McMorrow": 6.387583782392962 } }, { "cid": "fips:26055", "county": "Grand Traverse", "reporting": 6.860000000000001, "current_votes": 1147, "estimated_remaining_votes": 11235.868104134455, "prediction_informative": true, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 52.247625174698065, "Haley Stevens": 43.8777147380898, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.874660087212149 } }, { "cid": "fips:26067", "county": "Ionia", "reporting": 53.0, "current_votes": 5141, "estimated_remaining_votes": 1155.4377744995945, "prediction_informative": true, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 47.997461514048126, "Haley Stevens": 47.890791946369326, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.11174653958255 } }, { "cid": "fips:26135", "county": "Oscoda", "reporting": 99.0, "current_votes": 1082, "estimated_remaining_votes": 0.0, "prediction_informative": true, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 39.131395792170956, "Haley Stevens": 57.1951759752831, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.6734282325459646 } }, { "cid": "fips:26145", "county": "Saginaw", "reporting": 16.6, "current_votes": 4432, "estimated_remaining_votes": 24686.364928707186, "prediction_informative": true, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 46.68829917094062, "Haley Stevens": 48.82896195758723, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.482738871472158 } }, { "cid": "fips:26029", "county": "Charlevoix", "reporting": 96.98, "current_votes": 3339, "estimated_remaining_votes": 160.47713631203942, "prediction_informative": true, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 49.36330565855347, "Haley Stevens": 45.86771363442358, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.768980707022943 } }, { "cid": "fips:26139", "county": "Ottawa", "reporting": 38.53, "current_votes": 9627, "estimated_remaining_votes": 14785.060276468925, "prediction_informative": true, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 51.73470953377476, "Haley Stevens": 43.81589495595599, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.449395510269255 } }, { "cid": "fips:26073", "county": "Isabella", "reporting": 23.48, "current_votes": 1752, "estimated_remaining_votes": 6240.3953919174755, "prediction_informative": true, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 48.49216129724504, "Haley Stevens": 46.728591201814595, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.779247500940362 } }, { "cid": "fips:26005", "county": "Allegan", "reporting": 0.0, "current_votes": 0, "estimated_remaining_votes": 12233.214980259478, "prediction_informative": true, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 48.63058507355841, "Haley Stevens": 47.077806694930565, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.291608231511022 } }, { "cid": "fips:26017", "county": "Bay", "reporting": 5.77, "current_votes": 926, "estimated_remaining_votes": 15508.356874900292, "prediction_informative": true, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 48.574083049587074, "Haley Stevens": 46.97258514894684, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.453331801466067 } }, { "cid": "fips:26155", "county": "Shiawassee", "reporting": 44.43, "current_votes": 3588, "estimated_remaining_votes": 4949.64208510183, "prediction_informative": true, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 42.646784616550725, "Haley Stevens": 51.40711519838258, "Mallory McMorrow": 5.946100185066694 } }, { "cid": "fips:26071", "county": "Iron", "reporting": 0.0, "current_votes": 0, "estimated_remaining_votes": 1664.049750378701, "prediction_informative": true, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 48.62305493299832, "Haley Stevens": 47.08398728088115, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.2929577861205175 } }, { "cid": "fips:26111", "county": "Midland", "reporting": 38.17, "current_votes": 3780, "estimated_remaining_votes": 7037.057104082069, "prediction_informative": true, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 44.785688346137334, "Haley Stevens": 50.66481614625559, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.54949550760708 } }, { "cid": "fips:26001", "county": "Alcona", "reporting": 96.49, "current_votes": 1237, "estimated_remaining_votes": 44.608029818520436, "prediction_informative": true, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 42.54648720220722, "Haley Stevens": 49.67511721157754, "Mallory McMorrow": 7.778395586215242 } }, { "cid": "fips:26045", "county": "Eaton", "reporting": 92.34, "current_votes": 15102, "estimated_remaining_votes": 1484.270588417996, "prediction_informative": true, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 47.78647316105793, "Haley Stevens": 46.46207261786534, "Mallory McMorrow": 5.751454221076738 } }, { "cid": "fips:26105", "county": "Mason", "reporting": 20.12, "current_votes": 718, "estimated_remaining_votes": 2726.660439539037, "prediction_informative": true, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 48.602566812885385, "Haley Stevens": 46.71620876204783, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.681224425066796 } }, { "cid": "fips:26107", "county": "Mecosta", "reporting": 98.54, "current_votes": 3431, "estimated_remaining_votes": 69.15789552562956, "prediction_informative": true, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 45.12899740998638, "Haley Stevens": 50.402330443057785, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.468672146955823 } }, { "cid": "fips:26137", "county": "Otsego", "reporting": 70.99, "current_votes": 1730, "estimated_remaining_votes": 852.2585725086306, "prediction_informative": true, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 46.47161451790356, "Haley Stevens": 48.76149524806011, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.766890234036334 } }, { "cid": "fips:26159", "county": "Van Buren", "reporting": 21.44, "current_votes": 1748, "estimated_remaining_votes": 6516.409355732236, "prediction_informative": true, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 47.04534918111606, "Haley Stevens": 48.61155890729596, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.343091911587984 } }, { "cid": "fips:26013", "county": "Baraga", "reporting": 66.21, "current_votes": 527, "estimated_remaining_votes": 336.3151388567894, "prediction_informative": true, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 44.11358196112403, "Haley Stevens": 47.521985054173356, "Mallory McMorrow": 8.364432984702614 } }, { "cid": "fips:26091", "county": "Lenawee", "reporting": 0.0, "current_votes": 0, "estimated_remaining_votes": 9669.598638685868, "prediction_informative": true, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 48.644802415575185, "Haley Stevens": 47.06613739027119, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.28906019415363 } }, { "cid": "fips:26051", "county": "Gladwin", "reporting": 0.0, "current_votes": 0, "estimated_remaining_votes": 2590.3361413120724, "prediction_informative": true, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 48.61949336032418, "Haley Stevens": 47.086910547167655, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.293596092508172 } }, { "cid": "fips:26023", "county": "Branch", "reporting": 45.38, "current_votes": 1514, "estimated_remaining_votes": 1328.9638581037907, "prediction_informative": true, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 41.10233071904945, "Haley Stevens": 53.98259675019246, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.915072530758089 } }, { "cid": "fips:26101", "county": "Manistee", "reporting": 0.0, "current_votes": 0, "estimated_remaining_votes": 3791.242696224088, "prediction_informative": true, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 48.62263854885517, "Haley Stevens": 47.08432904050234, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.293032410642494 } }, { "cid": "fips:26063", "county": "Huron", "reporting": 91.36, "current_votes": 2200, "estimated_remaining_votes": 251.93734469721267, "prediction_informative": true, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 35.951848457757606, "Haley Stevens": 58.46406547139098, "Mallory McMorrow": 5.584086070851414 } }, { "cid": "fips:26131", "county": "Ontonagon", "reporting": 15.380000000000003, "current_votes": 134, "estimated_remaining_votes": 850.4069201533449, "prediction_informative": true, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 48.578054438050465, "Haley Stevens": 45.8859638140725, "Mallory McMorrow": 5.535981747877041 } }, { "cid": "fips:26049", "county": "Genesee", "reporting": 3.4300000000000006, "current_votes": 2213, "estimated_remaining_votes": 64183.37937851738, "prediction_informative": true, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 49.14288443805003, "Haley Stevens": 46.71653783658694, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.140577725363034 } }, { "cid": "fips:26075", "county": "Jackson", "reporting": 3.46, "current_votes": 581, "estimated_remaining_votes": 15316.60702633344, "prediction_informative": true, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 47.71814723640196, "Haley Stevens": 47.98839136168706, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.293461401910989 } }, { "cid": "fips:26039", "county": "Crawford", "reporting": 81.36, "current_votes": 1135, "estimated_remaining_votes": 288.24888430558144, "prediction_informative": true, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 41.09725829809444, "Haley Stevens": 52.52578376739543, "Mallory McMorrow": 6.376957934510146 } }, { "cid": "fips:26065", "county": "Ingham", "reporting": 34.23, "current_votes": 18881, "estimated_remaining_votes": 38632.62316125496, "prediction_informative": true, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 58.48473953791073, "Haley Stevens": 37.54853056934637, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.9667298927429075 } }, { "cid": "fips:26085", "county": "Lake", "reporting": 61.51, "current_votes": 799, "estimated_remaining_votes": 506.3753173110222, "prediction_informative": true, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 37.57792374035572, "Haley Stevens": 57.17660491498443, "Mallory McMorrow": 5.245471344659849 } }, { "cid": "fips:26103", "county": "Marquette", "reporting": 0.0, "current_votes": 0, "estimated_remaining_votes": 13575.142700457824, "prediction_informative": true, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 48.68290842014063, "Haley Stevens": 47.03486075810594, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.2822308217534255 } }, { "cid": "fips:26077", "county": "Kalamazoo", "reporting": 3.45, "current_votes": 1425, "estimated_remaining_votes": 42085.15108479823, "prediction_informative": true, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 48.400741425936125, "Haley Stevens": 47.213231349773146, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.386027224290733 } }, { "cid": "fips:26125", "county": "Oakland", "reporting": 76.49, "current_votes": 189661, "estimated_remaining_votes": 58294.288272976875, "prediction_informative": true, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 47.653476733736674, "Haley Stevens": 49.42522976606698, "Mallory McMorrow": 2.9212935001963487 } }, { "cid": "name:gd_traverse", "county": "name:gd_traverse", "reporting": 0.0, "current_votes": 0, "estimated_remaining_votes": 5156.92134952329, "prediction_informative": true, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 48.687409486538, "Haley Stevens": 47.031166374512935, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.281424138949067 } }, { "cid": "fips:26119", "county": "Montmorency", "reporting": 0.0, "current_votes": 0, "estimated_remaining_votes": 970.8193904974759, "prediction_informative": true, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 48.57596743374876, "Haley Stevens": 47.12263574089172, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.301396825359529 } }, { "cid": "fips:26141", "county": "Presque Isle", "reporting": 21.17, "current_votes": 344, "estimated_remaining_votes": 1451.5801453614304, "prediction_informative": true, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 40.53828468373477, "Haley Stevens": 54.73206617067146, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.729649145593781 } }, { "cid": "fips:26069", "county": "Iosco", "reporting": 68.61, "current_votes": 3460, "estimated_remaining_votes": 613.2913002151113, "prediction_informative": true, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 40.37330442187134, "Haley Stevens": 54.38792539579755, "Mallory McMorrow": 5.238770182331089 } }, { "cid": "fips:26081", "county": "Kent", "reporting": 53.71, "current_votes": 44593, "estimated_remaining_votes": 46918.32971673878, "prediction_informative": true, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 60.416307187214244, "Haley Stevens": 35.742270165590874, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.841422647194886 } }, { "cid": "fips:26115", "county": "Monroe", "reporting": 20.1, "current_votes": 3167, "estimated_remaining_votes": 13427.800539038479, "prediction_informative": true, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 46.7299326824402, "Haley Stevens": 48.5522368894747, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.717830428085103 } }, { "cid": "fips:26113", "county": "Missaukee", "reporting": 93.37, "current_votes": 943, "estimated_remaining_votes": 70.12569231661234, "prediction_informative": true, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 38.45645265024404, "Haley Stevens": 55.19682961902378, "Mallory McMorrow": 6.346717730732197 } }, { "cid": "fips:26095", "county": "Luce", "reporting": 99.0, "current_votes": 407, "estimated_remaining_votes": 5.603236249659915, "prediction_informative": true, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 43.340283963695725, "Haley Stevens": 49.1544897512968, "Mallory McMorrow": 7.505226285007471 } }, { "cid": "fips:26117", "county": "Montcalm", "reporting": 63.12, "current_votes": 3207, "estimated_remaining_votes": 2083.0147443372043, "prediction_informative": true, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 41.70665252260565, "Haley Stevens": 54.33985285440617, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.9534946229881887 } }, { "cid": "fips:26151", "county": "Sanilac", "reporting": 47.64, "current_votes": 1531, "estimated_remaining_votes": 1585.2325585258732, "prediction_informative": true, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 40.35271952575981, "Haley Stevens": 55.6572799735479, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.9900005006922976 } }, { "cid": "fips:26129", "county": "Ogemaw", "reporting": 0.0, "current_votes": 0, "estimated_remaining_votes": 2287.5117442761625, "prediction_informative": true, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 48.61102845879539, "Haley Stevens": 47.09385836587627, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.295113175328331 } }, { "cid": "fips:26033", "county": "Chippewa", "reporting": 77.91, "current_votes": 2769, "estimated_remaining_votes": 767.4548380501774, "prediction_informative": true, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 47.656018800674616, "Haley Stevens": 46.54894093834005, "Mallory McMorrow": 5.79504026098533 } }, { "cid": "fips:26043", "county": "Dickinson", "reporting": 0.0, "current_votes": 0, "estimated_remaining_votes": 2771.437006206097, "prediction_informative": true, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 48.64153177077273, "Haley Stevens": 47.068821868888044, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.289646360339236 } }, { "cid": "fips:26161", "county": "Washtenaw", "reporting": 64.95, "current_votes": 58927, "estimated_remaining_votes": 36375.12128089261, "prediction_informative": true, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 61.11075224892601, "Haley Stevens": 35.495106427632415, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.394141323441582 } }, { "cid": "fips:26007", "county": "Alpena", "reporting": 58.050000000000004, "current_votes": 2009, "estimated_remaining_votes": 1885.4507611674162, "prediction_informative": true, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 48.664801362986694, "Haley Stevens": 45.7996181340153, "Mallory McMorrow": 5.535580502998013 } }, { "cid": "fips:26003", "county": "Alger", "reporting": 20.65, "current_votes": 291, "estimated_remaining_votes": 1187.3829746305028, "prediction_informative": true, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 50.26146088842416, "Haley Stevens": 42.39889075222942, "Mallory McMorrow": 7.33964835934642 } }, { "cid": "fips:26079", "county": "Kalkaska", "reporting": 89.08, "current_votes": 1468, "estimated_remaining_votes": 216.38155288811413, "prediction_informative": true, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 46.85831291202122, "Haley Stevens": 47.86908401511618, "Mallory McMorrow": 5.272603072862605 } }, { "cid": "fips:26149", "county": "St. Joseph", "reporting": 73.25, "current_votes": 4494, "estimated_remaining_votes": 431.73944174167264, "prediction_informative": true, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 46.24409796857976, "Haley Stevens": 48.24337335375889, "Mallory McMorrow": 5.512528677661358 } }, { "cid": "fips:26047", "county": "Emmet", "reporting": 50.16, "current_votes": 2353, "estimated_remaining_votes": 2782.232900489893, "prediction_informative": true, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 52.53487302894582, "Haley Stevens": 42.42043196258343, "Mallory McMorrow": 5.044695008470751 } }, { "cid": "fips:26121", "county": "Muskegon", "reporting": 0.0, "current_votes": 0, "estimated_remaining_votes": 24944.417489173677, "prediction_informative": true, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 48.64212906549235, "Haley Stevens": 47.06833162155162, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.289539312956035 } }, { "cid": "fips:26059", "county": "Hillsdale", "reporting": 54.47, "current_votes": 1571, "estimated_remaining_votes": 1264.1567787725116, "prediction_informative": true, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 45.248458950393676, "Haley Stevens": 49.07030214621338, "Mallory McMorrow": 5.681238903392946 } }, { "cid": "fips:26143", "county": "Roscommon", "reporting": 15.72, "current_votes": 484, "estimated_remaining_votes": 2732.255070860492, "prediction_informative": true, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 42.682042825232806, "Haley Stevens": 52.758290989164806, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.559666185602396 } }, { "cid": "fips:26099", "county": "Macomb", "reporting": 27.41, "current_votes": 31576, "estimated_remaining_votes": 87051.54937106233, "prediction_informative": true, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 52.77596772822014, "Haley Stevens": 43.74434821494352, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.4796840568363367 } }, { "cid": "fips:26031", "county": "Cheboygan", "reporting": 57.26, "current_votes": 1621, "estimated_remaining_votes": 1277.7034008361702, "prediction_informative": true, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 43.66186543938543, "Haley Stevens": 51.931799241623125, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.406335318991444 } }, { "cid": "fips:26035", "county": "Clare", "reporting": 24.98, "current_votes": 650, "estimated_remaining_votes": 2166.541410974669, "prediction_informative": true, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 42.38657694241643, "Haley Stevens": 52.62028742019553, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.993135637388043 } }, { "cid": "fips:26097", "county": "Mackinac", "reporting": 93.9, "current_votes": 1446, "estimated_remaining_votes": 87.37128851475677, "prediction_informative": true, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 45.56736770132184, "Haley Stevens": 48.650579926539905, "Mallory McMorrow": 5.782052372138249 } }, { "cid": "fips:26123", "county": "Newaygo", "reporting": 11.7, "current_votes": 474, "estimated_remaining_votes": 3200.745116245081, "prediction_informative": true, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 45.202228868100505, "Haley Stevens": 50.170049809336945, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.62772132256255 } }, { "cid": "fips:26009", "county": "Antrim", "reporting": 0.0, "current_votes": 0, "estimated_remaining_votes": 3308.801867612957, "prediction_informative": true, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 48.62331101923895, "Haley Stevens": 47.08377709051243, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.292911890248626 } }, { "cid": "fips:26053", "county": "Gogebic", "reporting": 12.08, "current_votes": 281, "estimated_remaining_votes": 1803.7504679250023, "prediction_informative": true, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 48.65870176242218, "Haley Stevens": 45.32273269898589, "Mallory McMorrow": 6.0185655385919326 } }, { "cid": "fips:26109", "county": "Menominee", "reporting": 0.0, "current_votes": 0, "estimated_remaining_votes": 2394.3909432300134, "prediction_informative": true, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 48.61621551512684, "Haley Stevens": 47.08960093572192, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.294183549151242 } }, { "cid": "fips:26011", "county": "Arenac", "reporting": 0.0, "current_votes": 0, "estimated_remaining_votes": 1502.2465186291217, "prediction_informative": true, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 48.603411032552614, "Haley Stevens": 47.100110594136844, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.296478373310548 } }, { "cid": "fips:26057", "county": "Gratiot", "reporting": 52.459999999999994, "current_votes": 1835, "estimated_remaining_votes": 1397.8102766628867, "prediction_informative": true, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 42.85593752707024, "Haley Stevens": 51.38269616514701, "Mallory McMorrow": 5.761366307782756 } }, { "cid": "fips:26041", "county": "Delta", "reporting": 89.81, "current_votes": 4266, "estimated_remaining_votes": 396.7759728493211, "prediction_informative": true, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 46.95071343780952, "Haley Stevens": 44.24442757599384, "Mallory McMorrow": 8.804858986196646 } } ] } }, "batchbias": { "schema_version": 5, "model": "V6_WITHIN_COUNTY_BATCH_BIAS", "source": { "race_url": "https://data.americafirstinsight.com/Election2026/output/2026/MI/US_Senate/00/democratic/", "snapshot": "48.json", "snapshot_url": "https://data.americafirstinsight.com/Election2026/output/2026/MI/US_Senate/00/democratic/48.json", "final_url": "https://data.americafirstinsight.com/Election2026/output/2026/MI/US_Senate/00/democratic/latest.json" }, "race_name": "Michigan US Senate Democratic Primary", "state": "MI", "race_type": "US Senate", "scope": "Primary", "timestamp": "2026-08-05T02:52:37.152Z", "percent_reporting_source": 40.4, "votes_reported": 568436, "final_votes_backtest_only": 1528666, "actual_vote_counted_pct_backtest_only": 37.18510125822122, "predicted_leader": "Abdul El-Sayed", "projected_margin_points": 1.8737681279252627, "final_leader": "Abdul El-Sayed", "actual_final_margin_points": 0.9637160766315211, "leader_correct": true, "winner_projection": { "name": "Abdul El-Sayed", "projected_share_points": 49.0812312442092, "final_share_points": 48.478346479871995, "share_error_points": 0.6028847643372046, "projected_margin_points": 1.8737681279252627, "final_margin_points": 0.9637160766315211, "margin_error_points": 0.9100520512937416 }, "runoff_threshold": { "threshold_pct": 50.0, "projected_winner_above_threshold": false, "final_winner_above_threshold": false, "threshold_call_correct": true }, "competitive_state": { "tossup_band_points": 1.0, "projected_state": "WINNER", "final_state": "TOSSUP", "state_call_correct": false }, "final_top_two": [ "Abdul El-Sayed", "Haley Stevens" ], "final_top_two_projected_margin_points": 1.8737681279252627, "final_top_two_margin_error_points": 0.9100520512937416, "candidate_share_mae_points": 0.40192317622480217, "candidate_share_rmse_points": 0.4263295312605624, "projection": [ { "name": "Abdul El-Sayed", "party": "Democratic", "color": "#40247a", "major_candidate": true, "current_votes": 282337, "current_share": 0.4966909203498723, "projected_share": 0.490812312442092, "final_votes": 741072, "final_share": 0.4847834647987199, "share_error_points": 0.6028847643372082 }, { "name": "Haley Stevens", "party": "Democratic", "color": "#339933", "major_candidate": true, "current_votes": 265230, "current_share": 0.4665960635849946, "projected_share": 0.4720746311628394, "final_votes": 726340, "final_share": 0.4751463040324047, "share_error_points": -0.3071672869565334 }, { "name": "Mallory McMorrow", "party": "Democratic", "color": "#009f8e", "major_candidate": true, "current_votes": 20869, "current_share": 0.0367130160651331, "projected_share": 0.0371130563950687, "final_votes": 61254, "final_share": 0.04007023116887535, "share_error_points": -0.29571747738066506 } ], "diagnostics": { "method": "V6 models persistent or reversing within-county batch residuals. It adjusts V3's remaining-vote county expectation rather than treating a statewide reporting wave as permanent candidate momentum.", "uses_final_results_for_projection": false, "uses_final_results_for_scoring_only": true, "reporting_warning": "VoteFlow percent_reporting is used as a reporting-unit completion signal. It is not assumed to equal statewide percent of votes counted.", "specialist": "batch_bias" }, "batch_bias": { "available": true, "informative_counties": 14, "informative_electorate_votes": 277696.91588279046, "confidence": 0.37665726543829686, "internal_validation_available": true, "internal_validation_mae_points": 9.328001441192093, "internal_validation_score": 0.18341567350639373, "max_ensemble_influence": 0.13546403432272314, "counties": [ { "cid": "fips:26125", "county": "Oakland", "reporting": 76.49, "current_votes": 189661, "estimated_remaining_votes": 58294.288272976875, "prediction_informative": false, "local_confidence": 0.0, "persistence": 0.0, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 47.941843251324954, "Haley Stevens": 49.143585240570665, "Mallory McMorrow": 2.9145715081043764 } }, { "cid": "fips:26163", "county": "Wayne", "reporting": 22.97, "current_votes": 69886, "estimated_remaining_votes": 243867.3379252507, "prediction_informative": false, "local_confidence": 0.0, "persistence": 0.0, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 42.31967189156294, "Haley Stevens": 54.04792844150032, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.632399666936749 } }, { "cid": "fips:26161", "county": "Washtenaw", "reporting": 64.95, "current_votes": 58927, "estimated_remaining_votes": 36375.12128089261, "prediction_informative": false, "local_confidence": 0.0, "persistence": 0.0, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 61.20946454543993, "Haley Stevens": 35.51075270720484, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.279782747355236 } }, { "cid": "fips:26081", "county": "Kent", "reporting": 53.71, "current_votes": 44593, "estimated_remaining_votes": 46918.32971673878, "prediction_informative": true, "local_confidence": 0.7491356130011886, "persistence": 0.85, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 53.64498248721789, "Haley Stevens": 41.75138119209393, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.60363632068819 } }, { "cid": "fips:26099", "county": "Macomb", "reporting": 27.41, "current_votes": 31576, "estimated_remaining_votes": 87051.54937106233, "prediction_informative": false, "local_confidence": 0.0, "persistence": 0.0, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 53.25626067739654, "Haley Stevens": 43.55700290848847, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.1867364141149843 } }, { "cid": "fips:26093", "county": "Livingston", "reporting": 80.73, "current_votes": 21490, "estimated_remaining_votes": 5033.181154902108, "prediction_informative": false, "local_confidence": 0.0, "persistence": 0.0, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 50.51827629438693, "Haley Stevens": 45.68743546434764, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.794288241265435 } }, { "cid": "fips:26065", "county": "Ingham", "reporting": 34.23, "current_votes": 18881, "estimated_remaining_votes": 38632.62316125496, "prediction_informative": true, "local_confidence": 0.6368673331236263, "persistence": -0.6, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 60.54235509880237, "Haley Stevens": 36.07851212175852, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.379132779439102 } }, { "cid": "fips:26045", "county": "Eaton", "reporting": 92.34, "current_votes": 15102, "estimated_remaining_votes": 1484.270588417996, "prediction_informative": true, "local_confidence": 0.3306396401925617, "persistence": 0.85, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 46.773765198979675, "Haley Stevens": 47.38088612071195, "Mallory McMorrow": 5.8453486803083665 } }, { "cid": "fips:26139", "county": "Ottawa", "reporting": 38.53, "current_votes": 9627, "estimated_remaining_votes": 14785.060276468925, "prediction_informative": true, "local_confidence": 0.5162578934062342, "persistence": 0.4739200434226183, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 52.04040314097645, "Haley Stevens": 43.88538393519628, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.074212923827272 } }, { "cid": "fips:26147", "county": "St. Clair", "reporting": 34.81, "current_votes": 6209, "estimated_remaining_votes": 10755.18585599924, "prediction_informative": true, "local_confidence": 0.4692523413364173, "persistence": -0.03500425697530413, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 45.883952522590235, "Haley Stevens": 50.092154587608526, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.023892889801225 } }, { "cid": "fips:26067", "county": "Ionia", "reporting": 53.0, "current_votes": 5141, "estimated_remaining_votes": 1155.4377744995945, "prediction_informative": false, "local_confidence": 0.0, "persistence": 0.0, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 48.27441469704925, "Haley Stevens": 47.78156797033624, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.9440173326145045 } }, { "cid": "fips:26149", "county": "St. Joseph", "reporting": 73.25, "current_votes": 4494, "estimated_remaining_votes": 431.73944174167264, "prediction_informative": false, "local_confidence": 0.0, "persistence": 0.0, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 46.604935451946275, "Haley Stevens": 48.08581535269678, "Mallory McMorrow": 5.309249195356957 } }, { "cid": "fips:26145", "county": "Saginaw", "reporting": 16.6, "current_votes": 4432, "estimated_remaining_votes": 24686.364928707186, "prediction_informative": true, "local_confidence": 0.39846117860024627, "persistence": 0.35893168186372526, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 46.78335018977476, "Haley Stevens": 48.9369797536575, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.279670056567751 } }, { "cid": "fips:26041", "county": "Delta", "reporting": 89.81, "current_votes": 4266, "estimated_remaining_votes": 396.7759728493211, "prediction_informative": false, "local_confidence": 0.0, "persistence": 0.0, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 47.34591404694118, "Haley Stevens": 44.47491236405807, "Mallory McMorrow": 8.179173589000738 } }, { "cid": "fips:26111", "county": "Midland", "reporting": 38.17, "current_votes": 3780, "estimated_remaining_votes": 7037.057104082069, "prediction_informative": true, "local_confidence": 0.3589130256761379, "persistence": -0.6, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 44.626102535934336, "Haley Stevens": 50.98453019794667, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.389367266119 } }, { "cid": "fips:26155", "county": "Shiawassee", "reporting": 44.43, "current_votes": 3588, "estimated_remaining_votes": 4949.64208510183, "prediction_informative": true, "local_confidence": 0.5356770299332195, "persistence": 0.5931048570439347, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 44.259790628958015, "Haley Stevens": 50.45887493297663, "Mallory McMorrow": 5.281334438065356 } }, { "cid": "fips:26027", "county": "Cass", "reporting": 99.0, "current_votes": 3505, "estimated_remaining_votes": 77.55888915228525, "prediction_informative": false, "local_confidence": 0.0, "persistence": 0.0, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 45.973761345656506, "Haley Stevens": 45.66858318325481, "Mallory McMorrow": 8.357655471088682 } }, { "cid": "fips:26069", "county": "Iosco", "reporting": 68.61, "current_votes": 3460, "estimated_remaining_votes": 613.2913002151113, "prediction_informative": false, "local_confidence": 0.0, "persistence": 0.0, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 40.87023459196855, "Haley Stevens": 54.04868427748024, "Mallory McMorrow": 5.081081130551217 } }, { "cid": "fips:26107", "county": "Mecosta", "reporting": 98.54, "current_votes": 3431, "estimated_remaining_votes": 69.15789552562956, "prediction_informative": false, "local_confidence": 0.0, "persistence": 0.0, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 45.725132892570166, "Haley Stevens": 49.94981692894268, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.325050178487157 } }, { "cid": "fips:26029", "county": "Charlevoix", "reporting": 96.98, "current_votes": 3339, "estimated_remaining_votes": 160.47713631203942, "prediction_informative": false, "local_confidence": 0.0, "persistence": 0.0, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 49.49057192601511, "Haley Stevens": 45.917725404673824, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.591702669311049 } }, { "cid": "fips:26117", "county": "Montcalm", "reporting": 63.12, "current_votes": 3207, "estimated_remaining_votes": 2083.0147443372043, "prediction_informative": false, "local_confidence": 0.0, "persistence": 0.0, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 41.917817139626464, "Haley Stevens": 54.255766526156656, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.8264163342168733 } }, { "cid": "fips:26115", "county": "Monroe", "reporting": 20.1, "current_votes": 3167, "estimated_remaining_votes": 13427.800539038479, "prediction_informative": false, "local_confidence": 0.0, "persistence": 0.0, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 47.30470362904123, "Haley Stevens": 48.32000335408305, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.375293016875723 } }, { "cid": "fips:26015", "county": "Barry", "reporting": 51.57000000000001, "current_votes": 3040, "estimated_remaining_votes": 2084.356984925492, "prediction_informative": false, "local_confidence": 0.0, "persistence": 0.0, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 42.96172350897401, "Haley Stevens": 51.84586774604589, "Mallory McMorrow": 5.192408744980101 } }, { "cid": "fips:26033", "county": "Chippewa", "reporting": 77.91, "current_votes": 2769, "estimated_remaining_votes": 767.4548380501774, "prediction_informative": false, "local_confidence": 0.0, "persistence": 0.0, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 47.95476459695772, "Haley Stevens": 46.51501986324919, "Mallory McMorrow": 5.530215539793092 } }, { "cid": "fips:26047", "county": "Emmet", "reporting": 50.16, "current_votes": 2353, "estimated_remaining_votes": 2782.232900489893, "prediction_informative": false, "local_confidence": 0.0, "persistence": 0.0, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 52.83813811247376, "Haley Stevens": 42.298197176590925, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.863664710935314 } }, { "cid": "fips:26049", "county": "Genesee", "reporting": 3.4300000000000006, "current_votes": 2213, "estimated_remaining_votes": 64183.37937851738, "prediction_informative": false, "local_confidence": 0.0, "persistence": 0.0, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 49.98562689180982, "Haley Stevens": 46.37860482872086, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.635768279469321 } }, { "cid": "fips:26063", "county": "Huron", "reporting": 91.36, "current_votes": 2200, "estimated_remaining_votes": 251.93734469721267, "prediction_informative": false, "local_confidence": 0.0, "persistence": 0.0, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 37.57018204336108, "Haley Stevens": 57.11373945351808, "Mallory McMorrow": 5.316078503120844 } }, { "cid": "fips:26157", "county": "Tuscola", "reporting": 41.07, "current_votes": 2125, "estimated_remaining_votes": 2618.943835602582, "prediction_informative": false, "local_confidence": 0.0, "persistence": 0.0, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 41.54245341627252, "Haley Stevens": 52.856586235755344, "Mallory McMorrow": 5.600960347972139 } }, { "cid": "fips:26007", "county": "Alpena", "reporting": 58.050000000000004, "current_votes": 2009, "estimated_remaining_votes": 1885.4507611674162, "prediction_informative": false, "local_confidence": 0.0, "persistence": 0.0, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 48.91621035039038, "Haley Stevens": 45.69664382177678, "Mallory McMorrow": 5.38714582783284 } }, { "cid": "fips:26057", "county": "Gratiot", "reporting": 52.459999999999994, "current_votes": 1835, "estimated_remaining_votes": 1397.8102766628867, "prediction_informative": true, "local_confidence": 0.2017713865076102, "persistence": -0.13285082357806402, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 43.23747215440217, "Haley Stevens": 51.15532348840621, "Mallory McMorrow": 5.6072043571916215 } }, { "cid": "fips:26073", "county": "Isabella", "reporting": 23.48, "current_votes": 1752, "estimated_remaining_votes": 6240.3953919174755, "prediction_informative": false, "local_confidence": 0.0, "persistence": 0.0, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 48.999708481296324, "Haley Stevens": 46.53580242038349, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.464489098320168 } }, { "cid": "fips:26159", "county": "Van Buren", "reporting": 21.44, "current_votes": 1748, "estimated_remaining_votes": 6516.409355732236, "prediction_informative": true, "local_confidence": 0.33696639339554885, "persistence": -0.0034675097185610237, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 47.60053625374839, "Haley Stevens": 48.38921190466375, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.010251841587859 } }, { "cid": "fips:26137", "county": "Otsego", "reporting": 70.99, "current_votes": 1730, "estimated_remaining_votes": 852.2585725086306, "prediction_informative": false, "local_confidence": 0.0, "persistence": 0.0, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 46.789309736477215, "Haley Stevens": 48.59203687863631, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.6186533848864775 } }, { "cid": "fips:26031", "county": "Cheboygan", "reporting": 57.26, "current_votes": 1621, "estimated_remaining_votes": 1277.7034008361702, "prediction_informative": false, "local_confidence": 0.0, "persistence": 0.0, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 43.920948095313264, "Haley Stevens": 51.8247852252806, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.254266679406138 } }, { "cid": "fips:26059", "county": "Hillsdale", "reporting": 54.47, "current_votes": 1571, "estimated_remaining_votes": 1264.1567787725116, "prediction_informative": false, "local_confidence": 0.0, "persistence": 0.0, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 45.520790967153474, "Haley Stevens": 48.960517577598424, "Mallory McMorrow": 5.518691455248101 } }, { "cid": "fips:26133", "county": "Osceola", "reporting": 99.0, "current_votes": 1571, "estimated_remaining_votes": 19.133493263277842, "prediction_informative": true, "local_confidence": 0.3476211919566223, "persistence": 0.5757194067177048, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 42.05155890918337, "Haley Stevens": 51.784272331597094, "Mallory McMorrow": 6.164168759219546 } }, { "cid": "fips:26151", "county": "Sanilac", "reporting": 47.64, "current_votes": 1531, "estimated_remaining_votes": 1585.2325585258732, "prediction_informative": true, "local_confidence": 0.2850411381036408, "persistence": 0.28875945046884705, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 40.67892418404634, "Haley Stevens": 55.582376984322615, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.7386988316310474 } }, { "cid": "fips:26023", "county": "Branch", "reporting": 45.38, "current_votes": 1514, "estimated_remaining_votes": 1328.9638581037907, "prediction_informative": false, "local_confidence": 0.0, "persistence": 0.0, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 41.438051349366674, "Haley Stevens": 53.8487417707252, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.713206879908119 } }, { "cid": "fips:26079", "county": "Kalkaska", "reporting": 89.08, "current_votes": 1468, "estimated_remaining_votes": 216.38155288811413, "prediction_informative": false, "local_confidence": 0.0, "persistence": 0.0, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 47.26351867947701, "Haley Stevens": 47.697043887503696, "Mallory McMorrow": 5.039437433019282 } }, { "cid": "fips:26097", "county": "Mackinac", "reporting": 93.9, "current_votes": 1446, "estimated_remaining_votes": 87.37128851475677, "prediction_informative": false, "local_confidence": 0.0, "persistence": 0.0, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 46.11639102110533, "Haley Stevens": 48.391395683871394, "Mallory McMorrow": 5.49221329502327 } }, { "cid": "fips:26077", "county": "Kalamazoo", "reporting": 3.45, "current_votes": 1425, "estimated_remaining_votes": 42085.15108479823, "prediction_informative": false, "local_confidence": 0.0, "persistence": 0.0, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 49.20265783863977, "Haley Stevens": 46.908573427484576, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.8887687338756436 } }, { "cid": "fips:26127", "county": "Oceana", "reporting": 51.29, "current_votes": 1350, "estimated_remaining_votes": 1240.3814241764385, "prediction_informative": false, "local_confidence": 0.0, "persistence": 0.0, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 42.21387823611396, "Haley Stevens": 54.197714049604826, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.588407714281214 } }, { "cid": "fips:26021", "county": "Berrien", "reporting": 9.46, "current_votes": 1294, "estimated_remaining_votes": 15056.65577827919, "prediction_informative": false, "local_confidence": 0.0, "persistence": 0.0, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 52.361693045920454, "Haley Stevens": 43.31351516637008, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.324791787709454 } }, { "cid": "fips:26001", "county": "Alcona", "reporting": 96.49, "current_votes": 1237, "estimated_remaining_votes": 44.608029818520436, "prediction_informative": false, "local_confidence": 0.0, "persistence": 0.0, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 43.43422261071612, "Haley Stevens": 49.29958497420594, "Mallory McMorrow": 7.266192415077924 } }, { "cid": "fips:26165", "county": "Wexford", "reporting": 44.65, "current_votes": 1194, "estimated_remaining_votes": 1555.6611022108018, "prediction_informative": false, "local_confidence": 0.0, "persistence": 0.0, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 45.86082064562217, "Haley Stevens": 50.06691694502504, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.0722624093527875 } }, { "cid": "fips:26055", "county": "Grand Traverse", "reporting": 6.860000000000001, "current_votes": 1147, "estimated_remaining_votes": 11235.868104134455, "prediction_informative": false, "local_confidence": 0.0, "persistence": 0.0, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 53.00973182894082, "Haley Stevens": 43.57265813157436, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.4176100394848232 } }, { "cid": "fips:26039", "county": "Crawford", "reporting": 81.36, "current_votes": 1135, "estimated_remaining_votes": 288.24888430558144, "prediction_informative": false, "local_confidence": 0.0, "persistence": 0.0, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 42.14527215149083, "Haley Stevens": 51.8341239148717, "Mallory McMorrow": 6.020603933637464 } }, { "cid": "fips:26135", "county": "Oscoda", "reporting": 99.0, "current_votes": 1082, "estimated_remaining_votes": 0.0, "prediction_informative": false, "local_confidence": 0.0, "persistence": 0.0, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 40.3959256158699, "Haley Stevens": 55.9862650794633, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.6178093046668023 } }, { "cid": "fips:26061", "county": "Houghton", "reporting": 25.489999999999995, "current_votes": 1059, "estimated_remaining_votes": 3345.74264210606, "prediction_informative": false, "local_confidence": 0.0, "persistence": 0.0, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 49.85999700261376, "Haley Stevens": 44.98501767955519, "Mallory McMorrow": 5.154985317831048 } }, { "cid": "fips:26113", "county": "Missaukee", "reporting": 93.37, "current_votes": 943, "estimated_remaining_votes": 70.12569231661234, "prediction_informative": false, "local_confidence": 0.0, "persistence": 0.0, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 39.795960506679315, "Haley Stevens": 54.20997005218771, "Mallory McMorrow": 5.99406944113299 } }, { "cid": "fips:26017", "county": "Bay", "reporting": 5.77, "current_votes": 926, "estimated_remaining_votes": 15508.356874900292, "prediction_informative": false, "local_confidence": 0.0, "persistence": 0.0, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 49.359472630709476, "Haley Stevens": 46.65784358071798, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.9826837885725426 } }, { "cid": "fips:26025", "county": "Calhoun", "reporting": 7.2700000000000005, "current_votes": 918, "estimated_remaining_votes": 11811.954356962822, "prediction_informative": false, "local_confidence": 0.0, "persistence": 0.0, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 48.34848774414522, "Haley Stevens": 47.530903217520645, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.120609038334141 } }, { "cid": "fips:26089", "county": "Leelanau", "reporting": 15.83, "current_votes": 903, "estimated_remaining_votes": 5496.342097041341, "prediction_informative": false, "local_confidence": 0.0, "persistence": 0.0, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 51.717396415113484, "Haley Stevens": 44.9264186039844, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.3561849809021154 } }, { "cid": "fips:26085", "county": "Lake", "reporting": 61.51, "current_votes": 799, "estimated_remaining_votes": 506.3753173110222, "prediction_informative": false, "local_confidence": 0.0, "persistence": 0.0, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 37.80609386521957, "Haley Stevens": 57.082988566279504, "Mallory McMorrow": 5.110917568500926 } }, { "cid": "fips:26019", "county": "Benzie", "reporting": 24.01, "current_votes": 765, "estimated_remaining_votes": 3174.612088011311, "prediction_informative": false, "local_confidence": 0.0, "persistence": 0.0, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 53.3861388986278, "Haley Stevens": 42.81992865459943, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.793932446772769 } }, { "cid": "fips:26105", "county": "Mason", "reporting": 20.12, "current_votes": 718, "estimated_remaining_votes": 2726.660439539037, "prediction_informative": false, "local_confidence": 0.0, "persistence": 0.0, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 49.19279592462099, "Haley Stevens": 46.47119065883008, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.336013416548917 } }, { "cid": "fips:26087", "county": "Lapeer", "reporting": 7.41, "current_votes": 685, "estimated_remaining_votes": 8180.641770206288, "prediction_informative": false, "local_confidence": 0.0, "persistence": 0.0, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 46.401211677412505, "Haley Stevens": 49.81416720265253, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.7846211199349673 } }, { "cid": "fips:26035", "county": "Clare", "reporting": 24.98, "current_votes": 650, "estimated_remaining_votes": 2166.541410974669, "prediction_informative": true, "local_confidence": 0.21435143589163363, "persistence": -0.3491416064448567, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 42.848648112323765, "Haley Stevens": 52.52263280782753, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.628719079848709 } }, { "cid": "fips:26075", "county": "Jackson", "reporting": 3.46, "current_votes": 581, "estimated_remaining_votes": 15316.60702633344, "prediction_informative": false, "local_confidence": 0.0, "persistence": 0.0, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 48.56207434341256, "Haley Stevens": 47.6491351233427, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.7887905332447405 } }, { "cid": "fips:26013", "county": "Baraga", "reporting": 66.21, "current_votes": 527, "estimated_remaining_votes": 336.3151388567894, "prediction_informative": false, "local_confidence": 0.0, "persistence": 0.0, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 44.39302144305057, "Haley Stevens": 47.43438806486877, "Mallory McMorrow": 8.17259049208065 } }, { "cid": "fips:26143", "county": "Roscommon", "reporting": 15.72, "current_votes": 484, "estimated_remaining_votes": 2732.255070860492, "prediction_informative": true, "local_confidence": 0.25633415691241773, "persistence": -0.6, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 43.56410138857219, "Haley Stevens": 52.11862620856104, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.3172724028667675 } }, { "cid": "fips:26123", "county": "Newaygo", "reporting": 11.7, "current_votes": 474, "estimated_remaining_votes": 3200.745116245081, "prediction_informative": false, "local_confidence": 0.0, "persistence": 0.0, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 45.885477888108504, "Haley Stevens": 49.8949238266264, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.219598285265098 } }, { "cid": "fips:26083", "county": "Keweenaw", "reporting": 92.62, "current_votes": 414, "estimated_remaining_votes": 35.70628898706627, "prediction_informative": false, "local_confidence": 0.0, "persistence": 0.0, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 51.672948841780055, "Haley Stevens": 42.761872962521146, "Mallory McMorrow": 5.565178195698797 } }, { "cid": "fips:26095", "county": "Luce", "reporting": 99.0, "current_votes": 407, "estimated_remaining_votes": 5.603236249659915, "prediction_informative": false, "local_confidence": 0.0, "persistence": 0.0, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 44.13529260847165, "Haley Stevens": 48.8405207802994, "Mallory McMorrow": 7.024186611228952 } }, { "cid": "fips:26141", "county": "Presque Isle", "reporting": 21.17, "current_votes": 344, "estimated_remaining_votes": 1451.5801453614304, "prediction_informative": false, "local_confidence": 0.0, "persistence": 0.0, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 41.12743159811932, "Haley Stevens": 54.48291910842548, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.3896492934552045 } }, { "cid": "fips:26003", "county": "Alger", "reporting": 20.65, "current_votes": 291, "estimated_remaining_votes": 1187.3829746305028, "prediction_informative": false, "local_confidence": 0.0, "persistence": 0.0, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 50.834497675677845, "Haley Stevens": 42.165435318008505, "Mallory McMorrow": 7.00006700631365 } }, { "cid": "fips:26053", "county": "Gogebic", "reporting": 12.08, "current_votes": 281, "estimated_remaining_votes": 1803.7504679250023, "prediction_informative": false, "local_confidence": 0.0, "persistence": 0.0, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 49.35119580006065, "Haley Stevens": 45.03762609733134, "Mallory McMorrow": 5.611178102608012 } }, { "cid": "fips:26131", "county": "Ontonagon", "reporting": 15.380000000000003, "current_votes": 134, "estimated_remaining_votes": 850.4069201533449, "prediction_informative": false, "local_confidence": 0.0, "persistence": 0.0, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 49.21353186784084, "Haley Stevens": 45.628286077300096, "Mallory McMorrow": 5.158182054859063 } }, { "cid": "fips:26037", "county": "Clinton", "reporting": 0.11, "current_votes": 11, "estimated_remaining_votes": 12041.099798507375, "prediction_informative": false, "local_confidence": 0.0, "persistence": 0.0, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 50.433845372032515, "Haley Stevens": 46.01661632066452, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.5495383073029743 } }, { "cid": "fips:26005", "county": "Allegan", "reporting": 0.0, "current_votes": 0, "estimated_remaining_votes": 12233.214980259478, "prediction_informative": false, "local_confidence": 0.0, "persistence": 0.0, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 49.66909203498723, "Haley Stevens": 46.65960635849946, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.67130160651331 } }, { "cid": "fips:26009", "county": "Antrim", "reporting": 0.0, "current_votes": 0, "estimated_remaining_votes": 3308.801867612957, "prediction_informative": false, "local_confidence": 0.0, "persistence": 0.0, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 49.66909203498723, "Haley Stevens": 46.65960635849946, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.67130160651331 } }, { "cid": "fips:26011", "county": "Arenac", "reporting": 0.0, "current_votes": 0, "estimated_remaining_votes": 1502.2465186291217, "prediction_informative": false, "local_confidence": 0.0, "persistence": 0.0, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 49.66909203498723, "Haley Stevens": 46.65960635849946, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.67130160651331 } }, { "cid": "fips:26043", "county": "Dickinson", "reporting": 0.0, "current_votes": 0, "estimated_remaining_votes": 2771.437006206097, "prediction_informative": false, "local_confidence": 0.0, "persistence": 0.0, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 49.66909203498723, "Haley Stevens": 46.65960635849946, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.67130160651331 } }, { "cid": "fips:26051", "county": "Gladwin", "reporting": 0.0, "current_votes": 0, "estimated_remaining_votes": 2590.3361413120724, "prediction_informative": false, "local_confidence": 0.0, "persistence": 0.0, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 49.66909203498723, "Haley Stevens": 46.65960635849946, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.67130160651331 } }, { "cid": "fips:26071", "county": "Iron", "reporting": 0.0, "current_votes": 0, "estimated_remaining_votes": 1664.049750378701, "prediction_informative": false, "local_confidence": 0.0, "persistence": 0.0, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 49.66909203498723, "Haley Stevens": 46.65960635849946, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.67130160651331 } }, { "cid": "fips:26091", "county": "Lenawee", "reporting": 0.0, "current_votes": 0, "estimated_remaining_votes": 9669.598638685868, "prediction_informative": false, "local_confidence": 0.0, "persistence": 0.0, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 49.66909203498723, "Haley Stevens": 46.65960635849946, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.67130160651331 } }, { "cid": "fips:26101", "county": "Manistee", "reporting": 0.0, "current_votes": 0, "estimated_remaining_votes": 3791.242696224088, "prediction_informative": false, "local_confidence": 0.0, "persistence": 0.0, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 49.66909203498723, "Haley Stevens": 46.65960635849946, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.67130160651331 } }, { "cid": "fips:26103", "county": "Marquette", "reporting": 0.0, "current_votes": 0, "estimated_remaining_votes": 13575.142700457824, "prediction_informative": false, "local_confidence": 0.0, "persistence": 0.0, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 49.66909203498723, "Haley Stevens": 46.65960635849946, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.67130160651331 } }, { "cid": "fips:26109", "county": "Menominee", "reporting": 0.0, "current_votes": 0, "estimated_remaining_votes": 2394.3909432300134, "prediction_informative": false, "local_confidence": 0.0, "persistence": 0.0, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 49.66909203498723, "Haley Stevens": 46.65960635849946, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.67130160651331 } }, { "cid": "fips:26119", "county": "Montmorency", "reporting": 0.0, "current_votes": 0, "estimated_remaining_votes": 970.8193904974759, "prediction_informative": false, "local_confidence": 0.0, "persistence": 0.0, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 49.66909203498723, "Haley Stevens": 46.65960635849946, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.67130160651331 } }, { "cid": "fips:26121", "county": "Muskegon", "reporting": 0.0, "current_votes": 0, "estimated_remaining_votes": 24944.417489173677, "prediction_informative": false, "local_confidence": 0.0, "persistence": 0.0, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 49.66909203498723, "Haley Stevens": 46.65960635849946, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.67130160651331 } }, { "cid": "fips:26129", "county": "Ogemaw", "reporting": 0.0, "current_votes": 0, "estimated_remaining_votes": 2287.5117442761625, "prediction_informative": false, "local_confidence": 0.0, "persistence": 0.0, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 49.66909203498723, "Haley Stevens": 46.65960635849946, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.67130160651331 } }, { "cid": "fips:26153", "county": "Schoolcraft", "reporting": 0.0, "current_votes": 0, "estimated_remaining_votes": 987.1481570043142, "prediction_informative": false, "local_confidence": 0.0, "persistence": 0.0, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 49.66909203498723, "Haley Stevens": 46.65960635849946, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.67130160651331 } } ] } }, "runoff_transfer": null, "precinct": null, "v6": { "schema_version": 5, "model": "V6_0_COUNTY_BENCHMARK_MIXTURE_OF_EXPERTS", "source": { "race_url": "https://data.americafirstinsight.com/Election2026/output/2026/MI/US_Senate/00/democratic/", "snapshot": "48.json", "snapshot_url": "https://data.americafirstinsight.com/Election2026/output/2026/MI/US_Senate/00/democratic/48.json", "final_url": "https://data.americafirstinsight.com/Election2026/output/2026/MI/US_Senate/00/democratic/latest.json" }, "race_name": "Michigan US Senate Democratic Primary", "state": "MI", "race_type": "US Senate", "scope": "Primary", "timestamp": "2026-08-05T02:52:37.152Z", "percent_reporting_source": 40.4, "votes_reported": 568436, "final_votes_backtest_only": 1528666, "actual_vote_counted_pct_backtest_only": 37.18510125822122, "predicted_leader": "Abdul El-Sayed", "projected_margin_points": 2.1929949612390196, "final_leader": "Abdul El-Sayed", "actual_final_margin_points": 0.9637160766315211, "leader_correct": true, "winner_projection": { "name": "Abdul El-Sayed", "projected_share_points": 49.23144172171963, "final_share_points": 48.478346479871995, "share_error_points": 0.7530952418476318, "projected_margin_points": 2.1929949612390196, "final_margin_points": 0.9637160766315211, "margin_error_points": 1.2292788846074985 }, "runoff_threshold": { "threshold_pct": 50.0, "projected_winner_above_threshold": false, "final_winner_above_threshold": false, "threshold_call_correct": true }, "competitive_state": { "tossup_band_points": 1.0, "projected_state": "WINNER", "final_state": "TOSSUP", "state_call_correct": false }, "final_top_two": [ "Abdul El-Sayed", "Haley Stevens" ], "final_top_two_projected_margin_points": 2.1929949612390196, "final_top_two_margin_error_points": 1.2292788846074985, "candidate_share_mae_points": 0.5020634945650885, "candidate_share_rmse_points": 0.5386969892357376, "projection": [ { "name": "Abdul El-Sayed", "party": "Democratic", "color": "#40247a", "major_candidate": true, "current_votes": 282337, "current_share": 0.4966909203498723, "projected_share": 0.49231441721719627, "final_votes": 741072, "final_share": 0.4847834647987199, "share_error_points": 0.7530952418476344 }, { "name": "Haley Stevens", "party": "Democratic", "color": "#339933", "major_candidate": true, "current_votes": 265230, "current_share": 0.4665960635849946, "projected_share": 0.47038446760480607, "final_votes": 726340, "final_share": 0.4751463040324047, "share_error_points": -0.47618364275986425 }, { "name": "Mallory McMorrow", "party": "Democratic", "color": "#009f8e", "major_candidate": true, "current_votes": 20869, "current_share": 0.0367130160651331, "projected_share": 0.03730111517799768, "final_votes": 61254, "final_share": 0.04007023116887535, "share_error_points": -0.27691159908776675 } ], "diagnostics": { "method": "V6.0 combines specialized experts with dynamic county win benchmarks. Broad benchmark beats across independent counties can reweight validated experts and release the raw guard when multiple independent model families see the same crossover.", "uses_final_results_for_projection": false, "uses_final_results_for_scoring_only": true, "reporting_warning": "VoteFlow percent_reporting is used as a reporting-unit completion signal. It is not assumed to equal statewide percent of votes counted.", "v6_mixture_of_experts": true, "v6_dynamic_county_benchmarks": true, "v6_benchmark_breadth_gate": true, "v6_crossover_consensus": true, "v6_path_referee_separate": true, "v6_completion_referee_informative_only": true, "v6_raw_guard": true, "v6_monte_carlo_centered_on_deterministic": true, "v6_media_market_source": "/var/www/html/afi_needle_lab/engine/media_markets/mi_media_markets.js", "v6_reference_url": "/var/www/html/afi_needle_lab/engine/references/library/mi_democratic_library.json" }, "v6": { "version": "V6.0", "architecture": "county_benchmark_mixture_of_experts", "weights": { "v0": 0.13153084075531943, "v1": 0.1897648028775624, "v3": 0.21073554896945648, "market": 0.20638761101024167, "histgeo": 0.08614748568391185, "latent": 0.11460896814420396, "batchbias": 0.060824742559304285 }, "structural_strengths": { "v0": 1.8063497561203015, "v1": 1.105433755020258, "v3": 2.1758974823458144, "market": 1.396573426948696, "histgeo": 0.680689563125467, "latent": 1.2417168472295956, "batchbias": 0.5208215817978711 }, "components": [ { "model": "v3", "label": "V3 Remaining Vote", "weight": 0.21073554896945648, "structural_strength": 2.1758974823458144, "gate_cap": 0.44, "validation_log_adjustment": -0.8400519427948487, "benchmark_log_adjustment": 0.0, "weight_pre_benchmark": 0.21073554896945648, "uncertainty_penalty": 0.11261809087980632, "unvalidated_penalty": 0.0, "horizon_validation": { "short_path_quality": 0.6700150915938691, "short_path_evidence": 0.6090081831189499, "maturation_quality": 0.2492213710187745, "maturation_evidence": 1.0, "specialist_exam": { "available": false, "score": 0.0, "mae_points": null, "evidence": 0.0, "exam": null }, "final_quality": 0.2492213710187745, "final_evidence": 1.0, "residual_mae_points": 6.252361817596126 }, "completion_referee": { "mae_points": 6.252361817596126, "raw_score": 0.2492213710187745, "usable_score": 0.2492213710187745, "windows_scored": 4, "informative_vote_coverage": 1.0, "evidence": 1.0, "strength_multiplier": 0.911737424814332 }, "path_referee": { "mae_points": 1.6038061488256483, "raw_score": 0.7470664679400999, "usable_score": 0.6700150915938691, "intervals_scored": 4, "informative_vote_coverage": 1.0, "evidence": 0.6090081831189499, "strength_multiplier": 1.0617656888583238 }, "predicted_leader": "Abdul El-Sayed", "projected_margin_points": 2.225930067021742, "weighted_margin_contribution_points": 0.46908259464144586, "disagreement_points": 0.15036621444837428 }, { "model": "market", "label": "Media Markets", "weight": 0.20638761101024167, "structural_strength": 1.396573426948696, "gate_cap": 0.26, "validation_log_adjustment": 0.0, "benchmark_log_adjustment": 0.0, "weight_pre_benchmark": 0.20638761101024167, "uncertainty_penalty": 0.1, "unvalidated_penalty": 0.52, "horizon_validation": { "short_path_quality": 0.55, "short_path_evidence": 0.0, "maturation_quality": 0.55, "maturation_evidence": 0.0, "specialist_exam": { "available": false, "score": 0.0, "mae_points": null, "evidence": 0.0, "exam": null }, "final_quality": 0.55, "final_evidence": 0.0, "residual_mae_points": 6.0 }, "completion_referee": null, "path_referee": null, "predicted_leader": "Abdul El-Sayed", "projected_margin_points": 2.365273399008383, "weighted_margin_contribution_points": 0.48816312620741426, "disagreement_points": 0.18372861667720386 }, { "model": "v1", "label": "V1 County Geo", "weight": 0.1897648028775624, "structural_strength": 1.105433755020258, "gate_cap": 0.42, "validation_log_adjustment": -0.48442873404169906, "benchmark_log_adjustment": 0.0, "weight_pre_benchmark": 0.18976480287756242, "uncertainty_penalty": 0.09132126283256352, "unvalidated_penalty": 0.0, "horizon_validation": { "short_path_quality": 0.589254528735769, "short_path_evidence": 0.5898586588970036, "maturation_quality": 0.3374278868570438, "maturation_evidence": 0.7700863821896933, "specialist_exam": { "available": false, "score": 0.0, "mae_points": null, "evidence": 0.0, "exam": null }, "final_quality": 0.3374278868570438, "final_evidence": 0.7700863821896933, "residual_mae_points": 5.82642525665127 }, "completion_referee": { "mae_points": 5.82642525665127, "raw_score": 0.27396328767881795, "usable_score": 0.3374278868570438, "windows_scored": 4, "informative_vote_coverage": 0.5930330360340104, "evidence": 0.7700863821896933, "strength_multiplier": 1.1225914112084479 }, "path_referee": { "mae_points": 2.6598957565382926, "raw_score": 0.6165490421199756, "usable_score": 0.589254528735769, "intervals_scored": 4, "informative_vote_coverage": 0.9381011357348019, "evidence": 0.5898586588970036, "strength_multiplier": 0.9750012092920427 }, "predicted_leader": "Abdul El-Sayed", "projected_margin_points": 0.01782936908477084, "weighted_margin_contribution_points": 0.0033833867098028436, "disagreement_points": 0.6121060510461522 }, { "model": "v0", "label": "V0 Raw", "weight": 0.13153084075531943, "structural_strength": 1.8063497561203015, "gate_cap": 0.45, "validation_log_adjustment": -0.9432278708278383, "benchmark_log_adjustment": 0.0, "weight_pre_benchmark": 0.13153084075531943, "uncertainty_penalty": 0.14534130779929444, "unvalidated_penalty": 0.0, "horizon_validation": { "short_path_quality": 0.5960141637281827, "short_path_evidence": 0.6090081831189499, "maturation_quality": 0.21548795659162212, "maturation_evidence": 1.0, "specialist_exam": { "available": false, "score": 0.0, "mae_points": null, "evidence": 0.0, "exam": null }, "final_quality": 0.21548795659162212, "final_evidence": 1.0, "residual_mae_points": 6.906826155985889 }, "completion_referee": { "mae_points": 6.906826155985889, "raw_score": 0.2154879565916221, "usable_score": 0.21548795659162212, "windows_scored": 4, "informative_vote_coverage": 1.0, "evidence": 1.0, "strength_multiplier": 0.8309628989235827 }, "path_referee": { "mae_points": 2.580130181238737, "raw_score": 0.6255559038509592, "usable_score": 0.5960141637281827, "intervals_scored": 4, "informative_vote_coverage": 1.0, "evidence": 0.6090081831189499, "strength_multiplier": 0.9812438454252695 }, "predicted_leader": "Abdul El-Sayed", "projected_margin_points": 3.0094856764877664, "weighted_margin_contribution_points": 0.3958401812695272, "disagreement_points": 0.4178946727704619 }, { "model": "latent", "label": "Latent Coalition Factors", "weight": 0.11460896814420396, "structural_strength": 1.2417168472295956, "gate_cap": 0.2527090325013272, "validation_log_adjustment": -0.9149625020637928, "benchmark_log_adjustment": 0.0, "weight_pre_benchmark": 0.11460896814420397, "uncertainty_penalty": 0.07597029924862557, "unvalidated_penalty": 0.0, "horizon_validation": { "short_path_quality": 0.6811748538733077, "short_path_evidence": 0.6090081831189499, "maturation_quality": 0.25924045130541196, "maturation_evidence": 1.0, "specialist_exam": { "available": true, "score": 0.3705514209458427, "mae_points": 4.9638152794908645, "evidence": 1.0, "exam": "held-out latent coalition factors" }, "final_quality": 0.2926337421975412, "final_evidence": 1.0, "residual_mae_points": 5.5194059849725114 }, "completion_referee": { "mae_points": 6.074996690454159, "raw_score": 0.25924045130541196, "usable_score": 0.25924045130541196, "windows_scored": 4, "informative_vote_coverage": 1.0, "evidence": 1.0, "strength_multiplier": 0.9372073114881438 }, "path_referee": { "mae_points": 1.4705268821986817, "raw_score": 0.7653909545213564, "usable_score": 0.6811748538733077, "intervals_scored": 4, "informative_vote_coverage": 1.0, "evidence": 0.6090081831189499, "strength_multiplier": 1.0744693835027321 }, "predicted_leader": "Abdul El-Sayed", "projected_margin_points": 1.730936529206023, "weighted_margin_contribution_points": 0.19838084953541207, "disagreement_points": 0.09655633481326781 }, { "model": "histgeo", "label": "Historical Coalition Geography", "weight": 0.08614748568391185, "structural_strength": 0.680689563125467, "gate_cap": 0.24249579556172088, "validation_log_adjustment": -0.5927124524518204, "benchmark_log_adjustment": 0.0, "weight_pre_benchmark": 0.08614748568391184, "uncertainty_penalty": 0.051176822994837855, "unvalidated_penalty": 0.0, "horizon_validation": { "short_path_quality": 0.6781502087045048, "short_path_evidence": 0.6090081831189499, "maturation_quality": 0.2615765604883897, "maturation_evidence": 1.0, "specialist_exam": { "available": true, "score": 0.4821328465755259, "mae_points": 4.012445731824946, "evidence": 1.0, "exam": "held-out historical coalition geography" }, "final_quality": 0.32774344631453056, "final_evidence": 1.0, "residual_mae_points": 5.023536459896757 }, "completion_referee": { "mae_points": 6.034627187968569, "raw_score": 0.2615765604883897, "usable_score": 0.2615765604883897, "windows_scored": 4, "informative_vote_coverage": 1.0, "evidence": 1.0, "strength_multiplier": 0.9432475941770844 }, "path_referee": { "mae_points": 1.5063318700354804, "raw_score": 0.7604244446243752, "usable_score": 0.6781502087045048, "intervals_scored": 4, "informative_vote_coverage": 1.0, "evidence": 0.6090081831189499, "strength_multiplier": 1.0710113447458673 }, "predicted_leader": "Abdul El-Sayed", "projected_margin_points": 1.9874391116240175, "weighted_margin_contribution_points": 0.17121288241627655, "disagreement_points": 0.060268517054198195 }, { "model": "batchbias", "label": "Within-County Batch Bias", "weight": 0.060824742559304285, "structural_strength": 0.5208215817978711, "gate_cap": 0.13546403432272314, "validation_log_adjustment": -0.5577821213084185, "benchmark_log_adjustment": 0.0, "weight_pre_benchmark": 0.060824742559304285, "uncertainty_penalty": 0.20755440006452847, "unvalidated_penalty": 0.0, "horizon_validation": { "short_path_quality": 0.49451026475286897, "short_path_evidence": 0.35144885730913816, "maturation_quality": 0.37398107276058357, "maturation_evidence": 0.501359732061591, "specialist_exam": { "available": true, "score": 0.18341567350639373, "mae_points": 9.328001441192093, "evidence": 0.37665726543829686, "exam": "prior-batch residual validation" }, "final_quality": 0.3891476654023228, "final_evidence": 0.6891762118206919, "residual_mae_points": 8.151088001290569 }, "completion_referee": { "mae_points": 7.266906505285562, "raw_score": 0.19891690340660842, "usable_score": 0.37398107276058357, "windows_scored": 4, "informative_vote_coverage": 0.2513615809328703, "evidence": 0.501359732061591, "strength_multiplier": 1.1339236043377035 }, "path_referee": { "mae_points": 5.149149818123109, "raw_score": 0.3921114933421971, "usable_score": 0.49451026475286897, "intervals_scored": 4, "informative_vote_coverage": 0.3330259031858547, "evidence": 0.35144885730913816, "strength_multiplier": 0.9292707205818581 }, "predicted_leader": "Abdul El-Sayed", "projected_margin_points": 1.8737681279252627, "weighted_margin_contribution_points": 0.11397146399688364, "disagreement_points": 0.029485862404544694 } ], "gate": { "weights": { "v0": 0.13153084075531943, "v1": 0.1897648028775624, "v3": 0.21073554896945648, "market": 0.20638761101024167, "histgeo": 0.08614748568391185, "latent": 0.11460896814420396, "batchbias": 0.060824742559304285 }, "experts": { "v0": { "structural_strength": 1.8063497561203015, "completion_multiplier": 0.8309628989235827, "validation_log_adjustment": -0.9432278708278383, "uncertainty_penalty": 0.14534130779929444, "unvalidated_penalty": 0.0, "horizon_validation": { "short_path_quality": 0.5960141637281827, "short_path_evidence": 0.6090081831189499, "maturation_quality": 0.21548795659162212, "maturation_evidence": 1.0, "specialist_exam": { "available": false, "score": 0.0, "mae_points": null, "evidence": 0.0, "exam": null }, "final_quality": 0.21548795659162212, "final_evidence": 1.0, "residual_mae_points": 6.906826155985889 }, "trust_memory": { "available": true, "score": 0.2824971336997282, "windows": 4 }, "weight": 0.13153084075531943, "cap": 0.45, "weight_pre_benchmark": 0.13153084075531943, "benchmark_log_adjustment": 0.0 }, "v1": { "structural_strength": 1.105433755020258, "completion_multiplier": 1.1225914112084479, "validation_log_adjustment": -0.48442873404169906, "uncertainty_penalty": 0.09132126283256352, "unvalidated_penalty": 0.0, "horizon_validation": { "short_path_quality": 0.589254528735769, "short_path_evidence": 0.5898586588970036, "maturation_quality": 0.3374278868570438, "maturation_evidence": 0.7700863821896933, "specialist_exam": { "available": false, "score": 0.0, "mae_points": null, "evidence": 0.0, "exam": null }, "final_quality": 0.3374278868570438, "final_evidence": 0.7700863821896933, "residual_mae_points": 5.82642525665127 }, "trust_memory": { "available": true, "score": 0.3470486468804888, "windows": 4 }, "weight": 0.1897648028775624, "cap": 0.42, "weight_pre_benchmark": 0.18976480287756242, "benchmark_log_adjustment": 0.0 }, "v3": { "structural_strength": 2.1758974823458144, "completion_multiplier": 0.911737424814332, "validation_log_adjustment": -0.8400519427948487, "uncertainty_penalty": 0.11261809087980632, "unvalidated_penalty": 0.0, "horizon_validation": { "short_path_quality": 0.6700150915938691, "short_path_evidence": 0.6090081831189499, "maturation_quality": 0.2492213710187745, "maturation_evidence": 1.0, "specialist_exam": { "available": false, "score": 0.0, "mae_points": null, "evidence": 0.0, "exam": null }, "final_quality": 0.2492213710187745, "final_evidence": 1.0, "residual_mae_points": 6.252361817596126 }, "trust_memory": { "available": true, "score": 0.31842575340636115, "windows": 4 }, "weight": 0.21073554896945648, "cap": 0.44, "weight_pre_benchmark": 0.21073554896945648, "benchmark_log_adjustment": 0.0 }, "market": { "structural_strength": 1.396573426948696, "completion_multiplier": 1.0, "validation_log_adjustment": 0.0, "uncertainty_penalty": 0.1, "unvalidated_penalty": 0.52, "horizon_validation": { "short_path_quality": 0.55, "short_path_evidence": 0.0, "maturation_quality": 0.55, "maturation_evidence": 0.0, "specialist_exam": { "available": false, "score": 0.0, "mae_points": null, "evidence": 0.0, "exam": null }, "final_quality": 0.55, "final_evidence": 0.0, "residual_mae_points": 6.0 }, "trust_memory": { "available": false, "score": 0.55, "windows": 0 }, "weight": 0.20638761101024167, "cap": 0.26, "weight_pre_benchmark": 0.20638761101024167, "benchmark_log_adjustment": 0.0 }, "histgeo": { "structural_strength": 0.680689563125467, "completion_multiplier": 0.9740507111892837, "validation_log_adjustment": -0.5927124524518204, "uncertainty_penalty": 0.051176822994837855, "unvalidated_penalty": 0.0, "horizon_validation": { "short_path_quality": 0.6781502087045048, "short_path_evidence": 0.6090081831189499, "maturation_quality": 0.2615765604883897, "maturation_evidence": 1.0, "specialist_exam": { "available": true, "score": 0.4821328465755259, "mae_points": 4.012445731824946, "evidence": 1.0, "exam": "held-out historical coalition geography" }, "final_quality": 0.32774344631453056, "final_evidence": 1.0, "residual_mae_points": 5.023536459896757 }, "trust_memory": { "available": true, "score": 0.33148227535723174, "windows": 4 }, "weight": 0.08614748568391185, "cap": 0.24249579556172088, "weight_pre_benchmark": 0.08614748568391184, "benchmark_log_adjustment": 0.0 }, "latent": { "structural_strength": 1.2417168472295956, "completion_multiplier": 0.9712388601832956, "validation_log_adjustment": -0.9149625020637928, "uncertainty_penalty": 0.07597029924862557, "unvalidated_penalty": 0.0, "horizon_validation": { "short_path_quality": 0.6811748538733077, "short_path_evidence": 0.6090081831189499, "maturation_quality": 0.25924045130541196, "maturation_evidence": 1.0, "specialist_exam": { "available": true, "score": 0.3705514209458427, "mae_points": 4.9638152794908645, "evidence": 1.0, "exam": "held-out latent coalition factors" }, "final_quality": 0.2926337421975412, "final_evidence": 1.0, "residual_mae_points": 5.5194059849725114 }, "trust_memory": { "available": true, "score": 0.3281039036005744, "windows": 4 }, "weight": 0.11460896814420396, "cap": 0.2527090325013272, "weight_pre_benchmark": 0.11460896814420397, "benchmark_log_adjustment": 0.0 }, "batchbias": { "structural_strength": 0.5208215817978711, "completion_multiplier": 1.0581876975858213, "validation_log_adjustment": -0.5577821213084185, "uncertainty_penalty": 0.20755440006452847, "unvalidated_penalty": 0.0, "horizon_validation": { "short_path_quality": 0.49451026475286897, "short_path_evidence": 0.35144885730913816, "maturation_quality": 0.37398107276058357, "maturation_evidence": 0.501359732061591, "specialist_exam": { "available": true, "score": 0.18341567350639373, "mae_points": 9.328001441192093, "evidence": 0.37665726543829686, "exam": "prior-batch residual validation" }, "final_quality": 0.3891476654023228, "final_evidence": 0.6891762118206919, "residual_mae_points": 8.151088001290569 }, "trust_memory": { "available": true, "score": 0.38219688394581364, "windows": 4 }, "weight": 0.060824742559304285, "cap": 0.13546403432272314, "weight_pre_benchmark": 0.060824742559304285, "benchmark_log_adjustment": 0.0 } }, "horizon_validation": { "v0": { "short_path_quality": 0.5960141637281827, "short_path_evidence": 0.6090081831189499, "maturation_quality": 0.21548795659162212, "maturation_evidence": 1.0, "specialist_exam": { "available": false, "score": 0.0, "mae_points": null, "evidence": 0.0, "exam": null }, "final_quality": 0.21548795659162212, "final_evidence": 1.0, "residual_mae_points": 6.906826155985889 }, "v1": { "short_path_quality": 0.589254528735769, "short_path_evidence": 0.5898586588970036, "maturation_quality": 0.3374278868570438, "maturation_evidence": 0.7700863821896933, "specialist_exam": { "available": false, "score": 0.0, "mae_points": null, "evidence": 0.0, "exam": null }, "final_quality": 0.3374278868570438, "final_evidence": 0.7700863821896933, "residual_mae_points": 5.82642525665127 }, "v3": { "short_path_quality": 0.6700150915938691, "short_path_evidence": 0.6090081831189499, "maturation_quality": 0.2492213710187745, "maturation_evidence": 1.0, "specialist_exam": { "available": false, "score": 0.0, "mae_points": null, "evidence": 0.0, "exam": null }, "final_quality": 0.2492213710187745, "final_evidence": 1.0, "residual_mae_points": 6.252361817596126 }, "market": { "short_path_quality": 0.55, "short_path_evidence": 0.0, "maturation_quality": 0.55, "maturation_evidence": 0.0, "specialist_exam": { "available": false, "score": 0.0, "mae_points": null, "evidence": 0.0, "exam": null }, "final_quality": 0.55, "final_evidence": 0.0, "residual_mae_points": 6.0 }, "histgeo": { "short_path_quality": 0.6781502087045048, "short_path_evidence": 0.6090081831189499, "maturation_quality": 0.2615765604883897, "maturation_evidence": 1.0, "specialist_exam": { "available": true, "score": 0.4821328465755259, "mae_points": 4.012445731824946, "evidence": 1.0, "exam": "held-out historical coalition geography" }, "final_quality": 0.32774344631453056, "final_evidence": 1.0, "residual_mae_points": 5.023536459896757 }, "latent": { "short_path_quality": 0.6811748538733077, "short_path_evidence": 0.6090081831189499, "maturation_quality": 0.25924045130541196, "maturation_evidence": 1.0, "specialist_exam": { "available": true, "score": 0.3705514209458427, "mae_points": 4.9638152794908645, "evidence": 1.0, "exam": "held-out latent coalition factors" }, "final_quality": 0.2926337421975412, "final_evidence": 1.0, "residual_mae_points": 5.5194059849725114 }, "batchbias": { "short_path_quality": 0.49451026475286897, "short_path_evidence": 0.35144885730913816, "maturation_quality": 0.37398107276058357, "maturation_evidence": 0.501359732061591, "specialist_exam": { "available": true, "score": 0.18341567350639373, "mae_points": 9.328001441192093, "evidence": 0.37665726543829686, "exam": "prior-batch residual validation" }, "final_quality": 0.3891476654023228, "final_evidence": 0.6891762118206919, "residual_mae_points": 8.151088001290569 } }, "caps": { "v0": 0.45, "v1": 0.42, "v2r": 0.34, "v3": 0.44, "market": 0.26, "histgeo": 0.24249579556172088, "latent": 0.2527090325013272, "batchbias": 0.13546403432272314, "runoff_transfer": 0.58, "precinct": 0.38 }, "temperature": 0.88, "method_note": "V6 treats models as experts. Structural applicability, genuine completion validation, specialist held-out exams, uncertainty, and dynamic caps feed a softmax gate. A sticky multi-window trust memory adds hysteresis so one dump cannot violently rewrite expert weights. Path accuracy is kept separate. V6 then applies a second-stage county-benchmark breadth gate: independent validated experts that agree with broad county win-path performance can earn more weight.", "weights_pre_benchmark": { "v0": 0.13153084075531943, "v1": 0.18976480287756242, "v3": 0.21073554896945648, "market": 0.20638761101024167, "histgeo": 0.08614748568391184, "latent": 0.11460896814420397, "batchbias": 0.060824742559304285 }, "benchmark_gate_adjustments": { "v0": 0.0, "v1": 0.0, "v3": 0.0, "market": 0.0, "histgeo": 0.0, "latent": 0.0, "batchbias": 0.0 }, "benchmark_signal": { "available": true, "favored_candidate": "Abdul El-Sayed", "least_favored_candidate": "Mallory McMorrow", "evidence": 0.6671350391989715, "favored_signal_score": 0.03915837526743363, "favored_weighted_excess_points": 0.6016278877844345, "favored_breadth_balance": -0.23076923076923078, "candidates": { "Abdul El-Sayed": { "weighted_excess_points": 0.6016278877844345, "above_benchmark_counties": 18, "below_benchmark_counties": 30, "on_benchmark_counties": 4, "unique_counties": 37, "unique_markets": 7, "votes_scored": 37949.0, "breadth_balance": -0.23076923076923078, "evidence": 0.6671350391989715, "signal_score": 0.03915837526743363 }, "Haley Stevens": { "weighted_excess_points": -0.8565954088812535, "above_benchmark_counties": 28, "below_benchmark_counties": 18, "on_benchmark_counties": 6, "unique_counties": 37, "unique_markets": 7, "votes_scored": 37949.0, "breadth_balance": 0.19230769230769232, "evidence": 0.6671350391989715, "signal_score": -0.08767358497472703 }, "Mallory McMorrow": { "weighted_excess_points": -29.590177532489776, "above_benchmark_counties": 0, "below_benchmark_counties": 52, "on_benchmark_counties": 0, "unique_counties": 37, "unique_markets": 7, "votes_scored": 37949.0, "breadth_balance": -1.0, "evidence": 0.6671350391989715, "signal_score": -0.667135039155625 } }, "intervals": [ { "from_snapshot": 44, "to_snapshot": 45, "new_votes": 10283, "changed_counties": 13, "benchmark_observations_scored": 39 }, { "from_snapshot": 45, "to_snapshot": 46, "new_votes": 8299, "changed_counties": 14, "benchmark_observations_scored": 42 }, { "from_snapshot": 46, "to_snapshot": 47, "new_votes": 12360, "changed_counties": 12, "benchmark_observations_scored": 36 }, { "from_snapshot": 47, "to_snapshot": 48, "new_votes": 7007, "changed_counties": 13, "benchmark_observations_scored": 39 } ], "method_note": "V6 rebuilds county tie benchmarks and the preliminary expert gate exactly as they existed at each prior snapshot, then grades only later-arriving vote. Broad, repeated benchmark beats across independent counties are stronger evidence than one friendly dump." }, "crossover_consensus": { "available": false, "raw_leader": "Abdul El-Sayed", "candidate": null, "eligible": false, "score": 0.0, "independent_families": 0, "candidates": {} } }, "preliminary_gate": { "weights": { "v0": 0.13153084075531943, "v1": 0.18976480287756242, "v3": 0.21073554896945648, "market": 0.20638761101024167, "histgeo": 0.08614748568391184, "latent": 0.11460896814420397, "batchbias": 0.060824742559304285 }, "experts": { "v0": { "structural_strength": 1.8063497561203015, "completion_multiplier": 0.8309628989235827, "validation_log_adjustment": -0.9432278708278383, "uncertainty_penalty": 0.14534130779929444, "unvalidated_penalty": 0.0, "horizon_validation": { "short_path_quality": 0.5960141637281827, "short_path_evidence": 0.6090081831189499, "maturation_quality": 0.21548795659162212, "maturation_evidence": 1.0, "specialist_exam": { "available": false, "score": 0.0, "mae_points": null, "evidence": 0.0, "exam": null }, "final_quality": 0.21548795659162212, "final_evidence": 1.0, "residual_mae_points": 6.906826155985889 }, "trust_memory": { "available": true, "score": 0.2824971336997282, "windows": 4 }, "weight": 0.13153084075531943, "cap": 0.45, "weight_pre_benchmark": 0.13153084075531943, "benchmark_log_adjustment": 0.0 }, "v1": { "structural_strength": 1.105433755020258, "completion_multiplier": 1.1225914112084479, "validation_log_adjustment": -0.48442873404169906, "uncertainty_penalty": 0.09132126283256352, "unvalidated_penalty": 0.0, "horizon_validation": { "short_path_quality": 0.589254528735769, "short_path_evidence": 0.5898586588970036, "maturation_quality": 0.3374278868570438, "maturation_evidence": 0.7700863821896933, "specialist_exam": { "available": false, "score": 0.0, "mae_points": null, "evidence": 0.0, "exam": null }, "final_quality": 0.3374278868570438, "final_evidence": 0.7700863821896933, "residual_mae_points": 5.82642525665127 }, "trust_memory": { "available": true, "score": 0.3470486468804888, "windows": 4 }, "weight": 0.1897648028775624, "cap": 0.42, "weight_pre_benchmark": 0.18976480287756242, "benchmark_log_adjustment": 0.0 }, "v3": { "structural_strength": 2.1758974823458144, "completion_multiplier": 0.911737424814332, "validation_log_adjustment": -0.8400519427948487, "uncertainty_penalty": 0.11261809087980632, "unvalidated_penalty": 0.0, "horizon_validation": { "short_path_quality": 0.6700150915938691, "short_path_evidence": 0.6090081831189499, "maturation_quality": 0.2492213710187745, "maturation_evidence": 1.0, "specialist_exam": { "available": false, "score": 0.0, "mae_points": null, "evidence": 0.0, "exam": null }, "final_quality": 0.2492213710187745, "final_evidence": 1.0, "residual_mae_points": 6.252361817596126 }, "trust_memory": { "available": true, "score": 0.31842575340636115, "windows": 4 }, "weight": 0.21073554896945648, "cap": 0.44, "weight_pre_benchmark": 0.21073554896945648, "benchmark_log_adjustment": 0.0 }, "market": { "structural_strength": 1.396573426948696, "completion_multiplier": 1.0, "validation_log_adjustment": 0.0, "uncertainty_penalty": 0.1, "unvalidated_penalty": 0.52, "horizon_validation": { "short_path_quality": 0.55, "short_path_evidence": 0.0, "maturation_quality": 0.55, "maturation_evidence": 0.0, "specialist_exam": { "available": false, "score": 0.0, "mae_points": null, "evidence": 0.0, "exam": null }, "final_quality": 0.55, "final_evidence": 0.0, "residual_mae_points": 6.0 }, "trust_memory": { "available": false, "score": 0.55, "windows": 0 }, "weight": 0.20638761101024167, "cap": 0.26, "weight_pre_benchmark": 0.20638761101024167, "benchmark_log_adjustment": 0.0 }, "histgeo": { "structural_strength": 0.680689563125467, "completion_multiplier": 0.9740507111892837, "validation_log_adjustment": -0.5927124524518204, "uncertainty_penalty": 0.051176822994837855, "unvalidated_penalty": 0.0, "horizon_validation": { "short_path_quality": 0.6781502087045048, "short_path_evidence": 0.6090081831189499, "maturation_quality": 0.2615765604883897, "maturation_evidence": 1.0, "specialist_exam": { "available": true, "score": 0.4821328465755259, "mae_points": 4.012445731824946, "evidence": 1.0, "exam": "held-out historical coalition geography" }, "final_quality": 0.32774344631453056, "final_evidence": 1.0, "residual_mae_points": 5.023536459896757 }, "trust_memory": { "available": true, "score": 0.33148227535723174, "windows": 4 }, "weight": 0.08614748568391185, "cap": 0.24249579556172088, "weight_pre_benchmark": 0.08614748568391184, "benchmark_log_adjustment": 0.0 }, "latent": { "structural_strength": 1.2417168472295956, "completion_multiplier": 0.9712388601832956, "validation_log_adjustment": -0.9149625020637928, "uncertainty_penalty": 0.07597029924862557, "unvalidated_penalty": 0.0, "horizon_validation": { "short_path_quality": 0.6811748538733077, "short_path_evidence": 0.6090081831189499, "maturation_quality": 0.25924045130541196, "maturation_evidence": 1.0, "specialist_exam": { "available": true, "score": 0.3705514209458427, "mae_points": 4.9638152794908645, "evidence": 1.0, "exam": "held-out latent coalition factors" }, "final_quality": 0.2926337421975412, "final_evidence": 1.0, "residual_mae_points": 5.5194059849725114 }, "trust_memory": { "available": true, "score": 0.3281039036005744, "windows": 4 }, "weight": 0.11460896814420396, "cap": 0.2527090325013272, "weight_pre_benchmark": 0.11460896814420397, "benchmark_log_adjustment": 0.0 }, "batchbias": { "structural_strength": 0.5208215817978711, "completion_multiplier": 1.0581876975858213, "validation_log_adjustment": -0.5577821213084185, "uncertainty_penalty": 0.20755440006452847, "unvalidated_penalty": 0.0, "horizon_validation": { "short_path_quality": 0.49451026475286897, "short_path_evidence": 0.35144885730913816, "maturation_quality": 0.37398107276058357, "maturation_evidence": 0.501359732061591, "specialist_exam": { "available": true, "score": 0.18341567350639373, "mae_points": 9.328001441192093, "evidence": 0.37665726543829686, "exam": "prior-batch residual validation" }, "final_quality": 0.3891476654023228, "final_evidence": 0.6891762118206919, "residual_mae_points": 8.151088001290569 }, "trust_memory": { "available": true, "score": 0.38219688394581364, "windows": 4 }, "weight": 0.060824742559304285, "cap": 0.13546403432272314, "weight_pre_benchmark": 0.060824742559304285, "benchmark_log_adjustment": 0.0 } }, "horizon_validation": { "v0": { "short_path_quality": 0.5960141637281827, "short_path_evidence": 0.6090081831189499, "maturation_quality": 0.21548795659162212, "maturation_evidence": 1.0, "specialist_exam": { "available": false, "score": 0.0, "mae_points": null, "evidence": 0.0, "exam": null }, "final_quality": 0.21548795659162212, "final_evidence": 1.0, "residual_mae_points": 6.906826155985889 }, "v1": { "short_path_quality": 0.589254528735769, "short_path_evidence": 0.5898586588970036, "maturation_quality": 0.3374278868570438, "maturation_evidence": 0.7700863821896933, "specialist_exam": { "available": false, "score": 0.0, "mae_points": null, "evidence": 0.0, "exam": null }, "final_quality": 0.3374278868570438, "final_evidence": 0.7700863821896933, "residual_mae_points": 5.82642525665127 }, "v3": { "short_path_quality": 0.6700150915938691, "short_path_evidence": 0.6090081831189499, "maturation_quality": 0.2492213710187745, "maturation_evidence": 1.0, "specialist_exam": { "available": false, "score": 0.0, "mae_points": null, "evidence": 0.0, "exam": null }, "final_quality": 0.2492213710187745, "final_evidence": 1.0, "residual_mae_points": 6.252361817596126 }, "market": { "short_path_quality": 0.55, "short_path_evidence": 0.0, "maturation_quality": 0.55, "maturation_evidence": 0.0, "specialist_exam": { "available": false, "score": 0.0, "mae_points": null, "evidence": 0.0, "exam": null }, "final_quality": 0.55, "final_evidence": 0.0, "residual_mae_points": 6.0 }, "histgeo": { "short_path_quality": 0.6781502087045048, "short_path_evidence": 0.6090081831189499, "maturation_quality": 0.2615765604883897, "maturation_evidence": 1.0, "specialist_exam": { "available": true, "score": 0.4821328465755259, "mae_points": 4.012445731824946, "evidence": 1.0, "exam": "held-out historical coalition geography" }, "final_quality": 0.32774344631453056, "final_evidence": 1.0, "residual_mae_points": 5.023536459896757 }, "latent": { "short_path_quality": 0.6811748538733077, "short_path_evidence": 0.6090081831189499, "maturation_quality": 0.25924045130541196, "maturation_evidence": 1.0, "specialist_exam": { "available": true, "score": 0.3705514209458427, "mae_points": 4.9638152794908645, "evidence": 1.0, "exam": "held-out latent coalition factors" }, "final_quality": 0.2926337421975412, "final_evidence": 1.0, "residual_mae_points": 5.5194059849725114 }, "batchbias": { "short_path_quality": 0.49451026475286897, "short_path_evidence": 0.35144885730913816, "maturation_quality": 0.37398107276058357, "maturation_evidence": 0.501359732061591, "specialist_exam": { "available": true, "score": 0.18341567350639373, "mae_points": 9.328001441192093, "evidence": 0.37665726543829686, "exam": "prior-batch residual validation" }, "final_quality": 0.3891476654023228, "final_evidence": 0.6891762118206919, "residual_mae_points": 8.151088001290569 } }, "caps": { "v0": 0.45, "v1": 0.42, "v2r": 0.34, "v3": 0.44, "market": 0.26, "histgeo": 0.24249579556172088, "latent": 0.2527090325013272, "batchbias": 0.13546403432272314, "runoff_transfer": 0.58, "precinct": 0.38 }, "temperature": 0.88, "method_note": "V6 treats models as experts. Structural applicability, genuine completion validation, specialist held-out exams, uncertainty, and dynamic caps feed a softmax gate. A sticky multi-window trust memory adds hysteresis so one dump cannot violently rewrite expert weights. Path accuracy is kept separate." }, "county_benchmarks": { "available": true, "projected_leader": "Abdul El-Sayed", "projected_runner_up": "Haley Stevens", "projected_statewide_margin_points": 1.88063211058202, "projected_statewide_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 49.05357763768492, "Haley Stevens": 47.1729455271029, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.7734768352121777 }, "expected_final_votes": 2455324.1381099336, "estimated_remaining_votes": 1886888.138109931, "leader_weighted_expected_excess_points": 1.223591722994783, "leader_recent_weighted_excess_points": -2.071322333959439, "leader_expected_status_counts": { "well_above": 0, "above": 167, "on_benchmark": 0, "below": 0, "well_below": 0 }, "leader_recent_status_counts": { "well_above": 3, "above": 0, "on_benchmark": 1, "below": 1, "well_below": 8 }, "top_leverage_counties": [ { "cid": "fips:26163", "county": "Wayne", "reporting": 22.97, "estimated_remaining_votes": 243867.3379252507, "expected_remaining_share_points": 41.64555593769401, "required_remaining_share_points": 40.43645064061567, "required_final_county_share_points": 39.0772880822506, "expected_excess_points": 1.2091052970783451, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "recent_excess_points": null, "status": "ABOVE", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "leverage": 0.19864370177452464, "criticality_score": 0.16428982839999362, "benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 25.825397063609934, "central": 40.43645064061567, "p90": 55.212785481365344 }, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 30.49878877943287, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 30.49878877943287, "feasible": true, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 40.148439545193234, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 40.148439545193234, "feasible": true, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 45.19248298831058, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 45.19248298831058, "feasible": true, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false } } }, { "cid": "26163", "county": "26163", "reporting": 0.0, "estimated_remaining_votes": 243867.33792525067, "expected_remaining_share_points": 45.51633874471458, "required_remaining_share_points": 44.28457031828452, "required_final_county_share_points": 44.28457031828452, "expected_excess_points": 1.2317684264300581, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "recent_excess_points": null, "status": "ABOVE", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "leverage": 0.19864370177452462, "criticality_score": 0.16126708357855765, "benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 29.673516741278785, "central": 44.28457031828452, "p90": 59.0609051590342 }, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 34.36957158645344, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 34.36957158645344, "feasible": true, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 44.0192223522138, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 44.0192223522138, "feasible": true, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 49.06326579533115, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 49.06326579533115, "feasible": true, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false } } }, { "cid": "fips:26099", "county": "Macomb", "reporting": 27.41, "estimated_remaining_votes": 87051.54937106234, "expected_remaining_share_points": 53.23162281223133, "required_remaining_share_points": 51.999169873725585, "required_final_county_share_points": 53.20272008465212, "expected_excess_points": 1.2324529385057446, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "recent_excess_points": null, "status": "ABOVE", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "leverage": 0.07090839699728863, "criticality_score": 0.057534364827966304, "benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 11.067575136457592, "central": 51.999169873725585, "p90": 93.39378568401717 }, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 22.004924918886502, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 22.004924918886502, "feasible": true, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 49.03758155918977, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 49.03758155918977, "feasible": true, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 63.16803019266629, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 63.16803019266629, "feasible": true, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false } } }, { "cid": "26099", "county": "26099", "reporting": 0.0, "estimated_remaining_votes": 87051.54937106233, "expected_remaining_share_points": 51.0656987941285, "required_remaining_share_points": 49.82773188621717, "required_final_county_share_points": 49.82773188621717, "expected_excess_points": 1.2379669079113285, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "recent_excess_points": null, "status": "ABOVE", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "leverage": 0.07090839699728861, "criticality_score": 0.05727810375555495, "benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 8.896137148949173, "central": 49.82773188621717, "p90": 91.22234769650878 }, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 19.839000900783667, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 19.839000900783667, "feasible": true, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 46.87165754108693, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 46.87165754108693, "feasible": true, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 61.002106174563465, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 61.002106174563465, "feasible": true, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false } } }, { "cid": "fips:26049", "county": "Genesee", "reporting": 3.4300000000000006, "estimated_remaining_votes": 64183.379378517384, "expected_remaining_share_points": 49.964640810874236, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.72970216224296, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.81797759487675, "expected_excess_points": 1.2349386486312781, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "recent_excess_points": null, "status": "ABOVE", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "leverage": 0.052280982687625634, "criticality_score": 0.042334882583495395, "benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 48.72970216224296, "p90": 100.0 }, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 7.612049537570229, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 7.612049537570229, "feasible": true, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 44.27628671143863, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 44.27628671143863, "feasible": true, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 63.441333157466964, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 63.441333157466964, "feasible": true, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false } } }, { "cid": "26049", "county": "26049", "reporting": 0.0, "estimated_remaining_votes": 64183.37937851738, "expected_remaining_share_points": 48.32016286564123, "required_remaining_share_points": 47.0877023519475, "required_final_county_share_points": 47.0877023519475, "expected_excess_points": 1.2324605136937308, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "recent_excess_points": null, "status": "ABOVE", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "leverage": 0.05228098268762563, "criticality_score": 0.04242000624501757, "benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 47.0877023519475, "p90": 100.0 }, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 5.967571592337215, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 5.967571592337215, "feasible": true, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 42.63180876620562, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 42.63180876620562, "feasible": true, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 61.796855212233964, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 61.796855212233964, "feasible": true, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false } } }, { "cid": "26125", "county": "26125", "reporting": 0.0, "estimated_remaining_votes": 58294.288272976875, "expected_remaining_share_points": 48.44529292257174, "required_remaining_share_points": 47.20377120432641, "required_final_county_share_points": 47.20377120432641, "expected_excess_points": 1.2415217182453304, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "recent_excess_points": null, "status": "ABOVE", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "leverage": 0.04748398581529103, "criticality_score": 0.03824660101991705, "benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 47.20377120432641, "p90": 100.0 }, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1.8140960439252893, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 1.8140960439252893, "feasible": true, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 42.18228157069173, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 42.18228157069173, "feasible": true, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 63.28344745322575, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 63.28344745322575, "feasible": true, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false } } }, { "cid": "fips:26125", "county": "Oakland", "reporting": 76.49, "estimated_remaining_votes": 58294.28827297687, "expected_remaining_share_points": 48.05095048633834, "required_remaining_share_points": 46.806775165819126, "required_final_county_share_points": 47.34469559576671, "expected_excess_points": 1.2441753205192114, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "recent_excess_points": null, "status": "ABOVE", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "leverage": 0.04748398581529102, "criticality_score": 0.038165027896129064, "benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 46.806775165819126, "p90": 100.0 }, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1.4197536076918809, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 1.4197536076918809, "feasible": true, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 41.78793913445833, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 41.78793913445833, "feasible": true, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 62.889105016992346, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 62.889105016992346, "feasible": true, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false } } }, { "cid": "26081", "county": "26081", "reporting": 0.0, "estimated_remaining_votes": 46918.32971673878, "expected_remaining_share_points": 55.5704454339816, "required_remaining_share_points": 54.35989329691363, "required_final_county_share_points": 54.35989329691363, "expected_excess_points": 1.210552137067964, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "recent_excess_points": null, "status": "ABOVE", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "leverage": 0.038217625924417215, "criticality_score": 0.03157040886895032, "benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 54.35989329691363, "p90": 100.0 }, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -2.367090914162368, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 47.788885617005285, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 47.788885617005285, "feasible": true, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 74.00630329318261, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 74.00630329318261, "feasible": true, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false } } }, { "cid": "fips:26081", "county": "Kent", "reporting": 53.71, "estimated_remaining_votes": 46918.32971673878, "expected_remaining_share_points": 58.955819082444094, "required_remaining_share_points": 57.77711302226799, "required_final_county_share_points": 61.143310409537044, "expected_excess_points": 1.1787060601761041, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "recent_excess_points": null, "status": "ABOVE", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "leverage": 0.038217625924417215, "criticality_score": 0.03242337272679104, "benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 57.77711302226799, "p90": 100.0 }, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1.0182827343001293, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 1.0182827343001293, "feasible": true, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 51.17425926546778, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 51.17425926546778, "feasible": true, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 77.3916769416451, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 77.3916769416451, "feasible": true, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false } } }, { "cid": "fips:26077", "county": "Kalamazoo", "reporting": 3.45, "estimated_remaining_votes": 42085.15108479823, "expected_remaining_share_points": 48.734671319991016, "required_remaining_share_points": 47.504644632416884, "required_final_county_share_points": 47.49328823422302, "expected_excess_points": 1.2300266875741315, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "recent_excess_points": null, "status": "ABOVE", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "leverage": 0.03428072931926182, "criticality_score": 0.027869906942320537, "benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 47.504644632416884, "p90": 100.0 }, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -15.856576739937118, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 40.05945500752544, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 40.05945500752544, "feasible": true, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 69.28775561107643, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 69.28775561107643, "feasible": true, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false } } }, { "cid": "26077", "county": "26077", "reporting": 0.0, "estimated_remaining_votes": 42085.15108479823, "expected_remaining_share_points": 50.90024768957419, "required_remaining_share_points": 49.669690025912665, "required_final_county_share_points": 49.66969002591267, "expected_excess_points": 1.2305576636615285, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "recent_excess_points": null, "status": "ABOVE", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "leverage": 0.03428072931926182, "criticality_score": 0.027857881293639985, "benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 49.669690025912665, "p90": 100.0 }, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -13.69100037035394, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 42.22503137710862, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 42.22503137710862, "feasible": true, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 71.45333198065961, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 71.45333198065961, "feasible": true, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false } } } ], "most_pivotal_counties": [ { "cid": "fips:26163", "county": "Wayne", "reporting": 22.97, "estimated_remaining_votes": 243867.3379252507, "expected_remaining_share_points": 41.64555593769401, "required_remaining_share_points": 40.43645064061567, "required_final_county_share_points": 39.0772880822506, "expected_excess_points": 1.2091052970783451, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "recent_excess_points": null, "status": "ABOVE", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "leverage": 0.19864370177452464, "criticality_score": 0.16428982839999362, "benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 25.825397063609934, "central": 40.43645064061567, "p90": 55.212785481365344 }, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 30.49878877943287, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 30.49878877943287, "feasible": true, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 40.148439545193234, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 40.148439545193234, "feasible": true, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 45.19248298831058, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 45.19248298831058, "feasible": true, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false } } }, { "cid": "26163", "county": "26163", "reporting": 0.0, "estimated_remaining_votes": 243867.33792525067, "expected_remaining_share_points": 45.51633874471458, "required_remaining_share_points": 44.28457031828452, "required_final_county_share_points": 44.28457031828452, "expected_excess_points": 1.2317684264300581, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "recent_excess_points": null, "status": "ABOVE", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "leverage": 0.19864370177452462, "criticality_score": 0.16126708357855765, "benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 29.673516741278785, "central": 44.28457031828452, "p90": 59.0609051590342 }, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 34.36957158645344, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 34.36957158645344, "feasible": true, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 44.0192223522138, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 44.0192223522138, "feasible": true, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 49.06326579533115, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 49.06326579533115, "feasible": true, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false } } }, { "cid": "fips:26099", "county": "Macomb", "reporting": 27.41, "estimated_remaining_votes": 87051.54937106234, "expected_remaining_share_points": 53.23162281223133, "required_remaining_share_points": 51.999169873725585, "required_final_county_share_points": 53.20272008465212, "expected_excess_points": 1.2324529385057446, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "recent_excess_points": null, "status": "ABOVE", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "leverage": 0.07090839699728863, "criticality_score": 0.057534364827966304, "benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 11.067575136457592, "central": 51.999169873725585, "p90": 93.39378568401717 }, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 22.004924918886502, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 22.004924918886502, "feasible": true, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 49.03758155918977, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 49.03758155918977, "feasible": true, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 63.16803019266629, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 63.16803019266629, "feasible": true, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false } } }, { "cid": "26099", "county": "26099", "reporting": 0.0, "estimated_remaining_votes": 87051.54937106233, "expected_remaining_share_points": 51.0656987941285, "required_remaining_share_points": 49.82773188621717, "required_final_county_share_points": 49.82773188621717, "expected_excess_points": 1.2379669079113285, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "recent_excess_points": null, "status": "ABOVE", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "leverage": 0.07090839699728861, "criticality_score": 0.05727810375555495, "benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 8.896137148949173, "central": 49.82773188621717, "p90": 91.22234769650878 }, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 19.839000900783667, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 19.839000900783667, "feasible": true, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 46.87165754108693, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 46.87165754108693, "feasible": true, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 61.002106174563465, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 61.002106174563465, "feasible": true, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false } } }, { "cid": "26049", "county": "26049", "reporting": 0.0, "estimated_remaining_votes": 64183.37937851738, "expected_remaining_share_points": 48.32016286564123, "required_remaining_share_points": 47.0877023519475, "required_final_county_share_points": 47.0877023519475, "expected_excess_points": 1.2324605136937308, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "recent_excess_points": null, "status": "ABOVE", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "leverage": 0.05228098268762563, "criticality_score": 0.04242000624501757, "benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 47.0877023519475, "p90": 100.0 }, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 5.967571592337215, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 5.967571592337215, "feasible": true, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 42.63180876620562, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 42.63180876620562, "feasible": true, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 61.796855212233964, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 61.796855212233964, "feasible": true, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false } } }, { "cid": "fips:26049", "county": "Genesee", "reporting": 3.4300000000000006, "estimated_remaining_votes": 64183.379378517384, "expected_remaining_share_points": 49.964640810874236, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.72970216224296, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.81797759487675, "expected_excess_points": 1.2349386486312781, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "recent_excess_points": null, "status": "ABOVE", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "leverage": 0.052280982687625634, "criticality_score": 0.042334882583495395, "benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 48.72970216224296, "p90": 100.0 }, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 7.612049537570229, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 7.612049537570229, "feasible": true, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 44.27628671143863, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 44.27628671143863, "feasible": true, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 63.441333157466964, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 63.441333157466964, "feasible": true, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false } } }, { "cid": "26125", "county": "26125", "reporting": 0.0, "estimated_remaining_votes": 58294.288272976875, "expected_remaining_share_points": 48.44529292257174, "required_remaining_share_points": 47.20377120432641, "required_final_county_share_points": 47.20377120432641, "expected_excess_points": 1.2415217182453304, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "recent_excess_points": null, "status": "ABOVE", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "leverage": 0.04748398581529103, "criticality_score": 0.03824660101991705, "benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 47.20377120432641, "p90": 100.0 }, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1.8140960439252893, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 1.8140960439252893, "feasible": true, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 42.18228157069173, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 42.18228157069173, "feasible": true, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 63.28344745322575, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 63.28344745322575, "feasible": true, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false } } }, { "cid": "fips:26125", "county": "Oakland", "reporting": 76.49, "estimated_remaining_votes": 58294.28827297687, "expected_remaining_share_points": 48.05095048633834, "required_remaining_share_points": 46.806775165819126, "required_final_county_share_points": 47.34469559576671, "expected_excess_points": 1.2441753205192114, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "recent_excess_points": null, "status": "ABOVE", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "leverage": 0.04748398581529102, "criticality_score": 0.038165027896129064, "benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 46.806775165819126, "p90": 100.0 }, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1.4197536076918809, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 1.4197536076918809, "feasible": true, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 41.78793913445833, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 41.78793913445833, "feasible": true, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 62.889105016992346, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 62.889105016992346, "feasible": true, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false } } } ], "tipping_county": { "cid": "fips:26163", "county": "Wayne", "expected_margin_contribution_points": -1.291829165914926, "distance_from_statewide_margin_points": 0.5888029446670942, "estimated_remaining_votes": 243867.3379252507 }, "counties": [ { "cid": "fips:26163", "county": "Wayne", "fips": "26163", "reporting": 22.97, "current_votes": 69886, "current_candidate_votes": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 23995, "Haley Stevens": 43382, "Mallory McMorrow": 2509 }, "current_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 34.33448759408179, "Haley Stevens": 62.07537990441576, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.5901325015024463 }, "estimated_remaining_votes": 243867.3379252507, "estimated_final_votes": 313753.3379252507, "turnout_disagreement_votes": 0.0, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 41.64555593769401, "Haley Stevens": 54.652051027895745, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.702393034410266 }, "remaining_sources": [ { "model": "v3", "remaining_votes": 243867.3379252507, "weight": 0.1342208488636769 }, { "model": "histgeo", "remaining_votes": 243867.3379252507, "weight": 0.05994207394479305 }, { "model": "latent", "remaining_votes": 243867.3379252507, "weight": 0.07672787409296966 }, { "model": "batchbias", "remaining_votes": 243867.3379252507, "weight": 0.045123489075924846 } ], "share_sources": [ { "model": "v0", "weight": 0.03630604611298715, "source": "statewide raw" }, { "model": "v1", "weight": 0.14599140026529184, "source": "county live" }, { "model": "v3", "weight": 0.15004242351696637, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "market", "weight": 0.0786646379365536, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "histgeo", "weight": 0.06573339512824654, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "latent", "weight": 0.08483492578364633, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "batchbias", "weight": 0.04883898267529022, "source": "county remaining" } ], "candidate_benchmarks": { "Abdul El-Sayed": { "opponent": "Haley Stevens", "expected_remaining_share_points": 41.64555593769401, "expected_final_county_share_points": 40.017075024501594, "current_county_share_points": 34.33448759408179, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 40.43645064061567, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 40.43645064061567, "required_final_county_share_points": 39.0772880822506, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 25.825397063609934, "central": 40.43645064061567, "p90": 55.212785481365344 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 32.178192543929406, "feasible": true, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": false }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 40.43645064061567, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 40.43645064061567, "required_final_county_share_points": 39.0772880822506, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 25.825397063609934, "central": 40.43645064061567, "p90": 55.212785481365344 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 41.07821168709322, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 41.07821168709322, "required_final_county_share_points": 39.576102083795625, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.024044322225107804, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999973, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 41.72261645522827, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 41.72261645522827, "required_final_county_share_points": 40.07697093953628, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.003259695682198218, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.9999999999999996, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": 1.2091052970783451, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "ABOVE", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.19864370177452464, "criticality_score": 0.16428982839999362, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 30.49878877943287, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 30.49878877943287, "feasible": true, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 40.148439545193234, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 40.148439545193234, "feasible": true, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 45.19248298831058, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 45.19248298831058, "feasible": true, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false } } }, "Haley Stevens": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 54.652051027895745, "expected_final_county_share_points": 56.30553706025175, "current_county_share_points": 62.07537990441576, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 55.86115632497408, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 55.86115632497408, "required_final_county_share_points": 57.24532400250275, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 41.084821484224406, "central": 55.86115632497408, "p90": 70.47220990197982 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 64.11941442166035, "feasible": true, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": false }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 55.86115632497408, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 55.86115632497408, "required_final_county_share_points": 57.24532400250275, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 41.084821484224406, "central": 55.86115632497408, "p90": 70.47220990197982 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 56.50028355998876, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 56.50028355998876, "required_final_county_share_points": 57.742090852631655, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.07865391656842785, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.999999999999999, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 57.136786853384415, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 57.136786853384415, "required_final_county_share_points": 58.23681822276097, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.10597932088248406, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -1.209105297078338, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.19864370177452464, "criticality_score": 0.1642898283999946, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 65.79881818615688, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 65.79881818615688, "feasible": true, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 75.44846895191725, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 75.44846895191725, "feasible": true, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 80.4925123950346, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 80.4925123950346, "feasible": true, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false } } }, "Mallory McMorrow": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 3.702393034410266, "expected_final_county_share_points": 3.677387915246673, "current_county_share_points": 3.5901325015024463, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 30.150192710830886, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 30.150192710830886, "required_final_county_share_points": 24.234155673381593, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 15.373857870081212, "central": 30.150192710830886, "p90": 44.76124628783662 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 231.64871299309203, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 30.150192710830886, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 30.150192710830886, "required_final_county_share_points": 24.234155673381593, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 15.373857870081212, "central": 30.150192710830886, "p90": 44.76124628783662 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 30.688501383508104, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 30.688501383508104, "required_final_county_share_points": 24.652560474605234, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.159018308558073, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999906, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 31.22480773049429, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 31.22480773049429, "required_final_county_share_points": 25.069408951873374, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.213613509684069, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.999999999999993, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -26.44779967642062, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "WELL BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.19864370177452464, "criticality_score": 0.007510783664609509, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 14.849160192671405, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 14.849160192671405, "feasible": true, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 24.498810958431765, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 24.498810958431765, "feasible": true, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 29.54285440154911, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 29.54285440154911, "feasible": true, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false } } } } }, { "cid": "26163", "county": "26163", "fips": null, "reporting": 0.0, "current_votes": 0, "current_candidate_votes": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 0, "Haley Stevens": 0, "Mallory McMorrow": 0 }, "current_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": null, "Haley Stevens": null, "Mallory McMorrow": null }, "estimated_remaining_votes": 243867.33792525067, "estimated_final_votes": 243867.33792525067, "turnout_disagreement_votes": 2.9103830456733704e-11, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 45.51633874471458, "Haley Stevens": 50.90232394506936, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.5813373102160573 }, "remaining_sources": [ { "model": "market", "remaining_votes": 243867.3379252507, "weight": 0.1780093144963334 } ], "share_sources": [ { "model": "v0", "weight": 0.03630604611298715, "source": "statewide raw" }, { "model": "v3", "weight": 0.06301781787712588, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "market", "weight": 0.18729675699179427, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "histgeo", "weight": 0.02760802595386354, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "latent", "weight": 0.03563066882913146, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "batchbias", "weight": 0.020512372723621893, "source": "statewide fallback" } ], "candidate_benchmarks": { "Abdul El-Sayed": { "opponent": "Haley Stevens", "expected_remaining_share_points": 45.51633874471458, "expected_final_county_share_points": 45.51633874471459, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 44.28457031828452, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 44.28457031828452, "required_final_county_share_points": 44.28457031828452, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 29.673516741278785, "central": 44.28457031828452, "p90": 59.0609051590342 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 36.048975350949966, "feasible": true, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": false }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 44.28457031828452, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 44.28457031828452, "required_final_county_share_points": 44.28457031828452, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 29.673516741278785, "central": 44.28457031828452, "p90": 59.0609051590342 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 44.93898245592348, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 44.93898245592348, "required_final_county_share_points": 44.93898245592348, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.024044322225107804, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999973, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 45.59467450126506, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 45.59467450126506, "required_final_county_share_points": 45.594674501265054, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.003259695682198218, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.9999999999999996, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": 1.2317684264300581, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "ABOVE", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.19864370177452462, "criticality_score": 0.16126708357855765, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 34.36957158645344, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 34.36957158645344, "feasible": true, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 44.0192223522138, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 44.0192223522138, "feasible": true, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 49.06326579533115, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 49.06326579533115, "feasible": true, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false } } }, "Haley Stevens": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 50.90232394506936, "expected_final_county_share_points": 50.90232394506936, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 52.13409237149942, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 52.13409237149942, "required_final_county_share_points": 52.13409237149942, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 37.357757530749744, "central": 52.13409237149942, "p90": 66.74514594850515 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 60.36968733883398, "feasible": true, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": false }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 52.13409237149942, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 52.13409237149942, "required_final_county_share_points": 52.13409237149942, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 37.357757530749744, "central": 52.13409237149942, "p90": 66.74514594850515 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 52.78722187419612, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 52.78722187419612, "required_final_county_share_points": 52.78722187419612, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.07865391656842785, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.999999999999999, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 53.43906603929837, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 53.43906603929837, "required_final_county_share_points": 53.43906603929837, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.10597932088248406, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -1.2317684264300581, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.19864370177452462, "criticality_score": 0.16126708357855765, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 62.049091103330504, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 62.049091103330504, "feasible": true, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 71.69874186909087, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 71.69874186909087, "feasible": true, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 76.74278531220821, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 76.74278531220821, "feasible": true, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false } } }, "Mallory McMorrow": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 3.5813373102160573, "expected_final_county_share_points": 3.5813373102160573, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 31.28154163489656, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 31.28154163489656, "required_final_county_share_points": 31.28154163489656, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 16.50520679414688, "central": 31.28154163489656, "p90": 45.8925952119023 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 231.5276572688978, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 31.28154163489656, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 31.28154163489656, "required_final_county_share_points": 31.28154163489656, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 16.50520679414688, "central": 31.28154163489656, "p90": 45.8925952119023 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 31.8871645758567, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 31.8871645758567, "required_final_county_share_points": 31.8871645758567, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.159018308558073, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999906, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 32.492319773721604, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 32.492319773721604, "required_final_county_share_points": 32.492319773721604, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.213613509684069, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.999999999999993, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -27.700204324680502, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "WELL BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.19864370177452462, "criticality_score": 0.007171199874418825, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 14.728104468477198, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 14.728104468477198, "feasible": true, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 24.377755234237558, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 24.377755234237558, "feasible": true, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 29.421798677354907, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 29.421798677354907, "feasible": true, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false } } } } }, { "cid": "fips:26099", "county": "Macomb", "fips": "26099", "reporting": 27.41, "current_votes": 31576, "current_candidate_votes": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 17847, "Haley Stevens": 12862, "Mallory McMorrow": 867 }, "current_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 56.52077527235876, "Haley Stevens": 40.73346845705599, "Mallory McMorrow": 2.7457562705852547 }, "estimated_remaining_votes": 87051.54937106234, "estimated_final_votes": 118627.54937106234, "turnout_disagreement_votes": 1.4551915228366852e-11, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 53.23162281223133, "Haley Stevens": 43.52786560085431, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.2405115869143555 }, "remaining_sources": [ { "model": "v3", "remaining_votes": 87051.54937106233, "weight": 0.1342208488636769 }, { "model": "histgeo", "remaining_votes": 87051.54937106233, "weight": 0.05994207394479305 }, { "model": "latent", "remaining_votes": 87051.54937106233, "weight": 0.07672787409296966 }, { "model": "batchbias", "remaining_votes": 87051.54937106233, "weight": 0.045123489075924846 } ], "share_sources": [ { "model": "v0", "weight": 0.03630604611298715, "source": "statewide raw" }, { "model": "v1", "weight": 0.14599140026529184, "source": "county live" }, { "model": "v3", "weight": 0.15004242351696637, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "market", "weight": 0.0786646379365536, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "histgeo", "weight": 0.06573339512824654, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "latent", "weight": 0.08483492578364633, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "batchbias", "weight": 0.04883898267529022, "source": "county remaining" } ], "candidate_benchmarks": { "Abdul El-Sayed": { "opponent": "Haley Stevens", "expected_remaining_share_points": 53.23162281223133, "expected_final_county_share_points": 54.107121620321166, "current_county_share_points": 56.52077527235876, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 51.999169873725585, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 51.999169873725585, "required_final_county_share_points": 53.20272008465212, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 11.067575136457592, "central": 51.999169873725585, "p90": 93.39378568401717 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 26.70962837687643, "feasible": true, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": false }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 51.999169873725585, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 51.999169873725585, "required_final_county_share_points": 53.20272008465212, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 11.067575136457592, "central": 51.999169873725585, "p90": 93.39378568401717 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 52.65517626974121, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 52.65517626974121, "required_final_county_share_points": 53.68411225260344, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.024044322225107804, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999973, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 53.30966855287589, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 53.30966855287589, "required_final_county_share_points": 54.164393330652715, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.003259695682198218, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.9999999999999996, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": 1.2324529385057446, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "ABOVE", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.07090839699728863, "criticality_score": 0.057534364827966304, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 22.004924918886502, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 22.004924918886502, "feasible": true, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 49.03758155918977, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 49.03758155918977, "feasible": true, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 63.16803019266629, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 63.16803019266629, "feasible": true, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false } } }, "Haley Stevens": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 43.52786560085431, "expected_final_county_share_points": 42.78405959052718, "current_county_share_points": 40.73346845705599, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 44.760318539360064, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 44.760318539360064, "required_final_county_share_points": 43.688461126196216, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 3.365702729068474, "central": 44.760318539360064, "p90": 85.69191327662806 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 70.04986003620921, "feasible": true, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": false }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 44.760318539360064, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 44.760318539360064, "required_final_county_share_points": 43.688461126196216, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 3.365702729068474, "central": 44.760318539360064, "p90": 85.69191327662806 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 45.41783777995146, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 45.41783777995146, "required_final_county_share_points": 44.17096345333886, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.07865391656842785, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.999999999999999, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 46.07686854924514, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 46.07686854924514, "required_final_county_share_points": 44.654574974055414, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.10597932088248406, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -1.2324529385057517, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.07090839699728863, "criticality_score": 0.05753436482796597, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 74.75456349419915, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 74.75456349419915, "feasible": true, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 101.7872201345024, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 115.91766876797894, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Mallory McMorrow": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 3.2405115869143555, "expected_final_county_share_points": 3.108818789151658, "current_county_share_points": 2.7457562705852547, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 32.52744151348054, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 32.52744151348054, "required_final_county_share_points": 24.60022310413644, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 32.52744151348054, "p90": 73.45903625074854 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 641.8122847466453, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 32.52744151348054, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 32.52744151348054, "required_final_county_share_points": 24.60022310413644, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 32.52744151348054, "p90": 73.45903625074854 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 33.265695057931325, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 33.265695057931325, "required_final_county_share_points": 25.141970069439562, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.159018308558073, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999906, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 34.00822064741608, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 34.00822064741608, "required_final_county_share_points": 25.686851956952257, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.213613509684069, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.999999999999993, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -29.286929926566184, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "WELL BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.07090839699728863, "criticality_score": 0.0024211618348213273, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 34.467209480259186, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 34.467209480259186, "feasible": true, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 61.499866120562444, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 61.499866120562444, "feasible": true, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 75.63031475403898, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 75.63031475403898, "feasible": true, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false } } } } }, { "cid": "26099", "county": "26099", "fips": null, "reporting": 0.0, "current_votes": 0, "current_candidate_votes": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 0, "Haley Stevens": 0, "Mallory McMorrow": 0 }, "current_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": null, "Haley Stevens": null, "Mallory McMorrow": null }, "estimated_remaining_votes": 87051.54937106233, "estimated_final_votes": 87051.54937106233, "turnout_disagreement_votes": 0.0, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 51.0656987941285, "Haley Stevens": 45.569276045116666, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.3650251607548363 }, "remaining_sources": [ { "model": "market", "remaining_votes": 87051.54937106233, "weight": 0.1780093144963334 } ], "share_sources": [ { "model": "v0", "weight": 0.03630604611298715, "source": "statewide raw" }, { "model": "v3", "weight": 0.06301781787712588, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "market", "weight": 0.18729675699179427, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "histgeo", "weight": 0.02760802595386354, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "latent", "weight": 0.03563066882913146, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "batchbias", "weight": 0.020512372723621893, "source": "statewide fallback" } ], "candidate_benchmarks": { "Abdul El-Sayed": { "opponent": "Haley Stevens", "expected_remaining_share_points": 51.0656987941285, "expected_final_county_share_points": 51.065698794128494, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 49.82773188621717, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 49.82773188621717, "required_final_county_share_points": 49.82773188621717, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 8.896137148949173, "central": 49.82773188621717, "p90": 91.22234769650878 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 24.543704358773567, "feasible": true, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": false }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 49.82773188621717, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 49.82773188621717, "required_final_county_share_points": 49.82773188621717, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 8.896137148949173, "central": 49.82773188621717, "p90": 91.22234769650878 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 50.48632913946651, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 50.48632913946651, "required_final_county_share_points": 50.48632913946651, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.024044322225107804, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999973, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 51.1441868342374, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 51.1441868342374, "required_final_county_share_points": 51.1441868342374, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.003259695682198218, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.9999999999999996, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": 1.2379669079113285, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "ABOVE", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.07090839699728861, "criticality_score": 0.05727810375555495, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 19.839000900783667, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 19.839000900783667, "feasible": true, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 46.87165754108693, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 46.87165754108693, "feasible": true, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 61.002106174563465, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 61.002106174563465, "feasible": true, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false } } }, "Haley Stevens": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 45.569276045116666, "expected_final_county_share_points": 45.56927604511666, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 46.80724295302798, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 46.80724295302798, "required_final_county_share_points": 46.80724295302798, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 5.412627142736376, "central": 46.80724295302798, "p90": 87.73883769029598 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 72.09127048047161, "feasible": true, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": false }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 46.80724295302798, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 46.80724295302798, "required_final_county_share_points": 46.80724295302798, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 5.412627142736376, "central": 46.80724295302798, "p90": 87.73883769029598 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 47.466574469917525, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 47.466574469917525, "required_final_county_share_points": 47.466574469917525, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.07865391656842785, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.999999999999999, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.12663491756927, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.12663491756927, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.12663491756927, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.10597932088248406, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -1.2379669079113143, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.07090839699728861, "criticality_score": 0.05727810375555561, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 76.7959739384615, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 76.7959739384615, "feasible": true, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 103.82863057876476, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 117.9590792122413, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Mallory McMorrow": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 3.3650251607548363, "expected_final_county_share_points": 3.3650251607548363, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 32.39817483241233, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 32.39817483241233, "required_final_county_share_points": 32.39817483241233, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 32.39817483241233, "p90": 73.32976956968034 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 641.9367983204861, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 32.39817483241233, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 32.39817483241233, "required_final_county_share_points": 32.39817483241233, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 32.39817483241233, "p90": 73.32976956968034 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 33.099428262388464, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 33.099428262388464, "required_final_county_share_points": 33.099428262388464, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.159018308558073, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999906, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 33.803286602273005, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 33.803286602273005, "required_final_county_share_points": 33.803286602273005, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.213613509684069, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.999999999999993, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -29.033149671657494, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "WELL BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.07090839699728861, "criticality_score": 0.002442325334977701, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 34.591723054099674, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 34.591723054099674, "feasible": true, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 61.62437969440293, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 61.62437969440293, "feasible": true, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 75.75482832787948, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 75.75482832787948, "feasible": true, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false } } } } }, { "cid": "fips:26049", "county": "Genesee", "fips": "26049", "reporting": 3.4300000000000006, "current_votes": 2213, "current_candidate_votes": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 1137, "Haley Stevens": 999, "Mallory McMorrow": 77 }, "current_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 51.37821961138725, "Haley Stevens": 45.142340713962945, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.4794396746497966 }, "estimated_remaining_votes": 64183.379378517384, "estimated_final_votes": 66396.37937851739, "turnout_disagreement_votes": 7.275957614183426e-12, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 49.964640810874236, "Haley Stevens": 46.307663096836585, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.7276960922891837 }, "remaining_sources": [ { "model": "v3", "remaining_votes": 64183.37937851738, "weight": 0.1342208488636769 }, { "model": "histgeo", "remaining_votes": 64183.37937851738, "weight": 0.05994207394479305 }, { "model": "latent", "remaining_votes": 64183.37937851738, "weight": 0.07672787409296966 }, { "model": "batchbias", "remaining_votes": 64183.37937851738, "weight": 0.045123489075924846 } ], "share_sources": [ { "model": "v0", "weight": 0.03630604611298715, "source": "statewide raw" }, { "model": "v1", "weight": 0.14599140026529184, "source": "county live" }, { "model": "v3", "weight": 0.15004242351696637, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "market", "weight": 0.0786646379365536, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "histgeo", "weight": 0.06573339512824654, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "latent", "weight": 0.08483492578364633, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "batchbias", "weight": 0.04883898267529022, "source": "county remaining" } ], "candidate_benchmarks": { "Abdul El-Sayed": { "opponent": "Haley Stevens", "expected_remaining_share_points": 49.964640810874236, "expected_final_county_share_points": 50.01175557699274, "current_county_share_points": 51.37821961138725, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.72970216224296, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.72970216224296, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.81797759487675, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 48.72970216224296, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 13.99301185702228, "feasible": true, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": false }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.72970216224296, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.72970216224296, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.81797759487675, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 48.72970216224296, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 49.38653910357338, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 49.38653910357338, "required_final_county_share_points": 49.45292207513068, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.024044322225107804, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999973, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 50.04297729133514, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 50.04297729133514, "required_final_county_share_points": 50.0874810923245, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.003259695682198218, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.9999999999999996, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": 1.2349386486312781, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "ABOVE", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.052280982687625634, "criticality_score": 0.042334882583495395, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 7.612049537570229, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 7.612049537570229, "feasible": true, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 44.27628671143863, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 44.27628671143863, "feasible": true, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 63.441333157466964, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 63.441333157466964, "feasible": true, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false } } }, "Haley Stevens": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 46.307663096836585, "expected_final_county_share_points": 46.26882274955503, "current_county_share_points": 45.142340713962945, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 47.54260174546786, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 47.54260174546786, "required_final_county_share_points": 47.46260073167103, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 47.54260174546786, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 82.27929205068854, "feasible": true, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": false }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 47.54260174546786, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 47.54260174546786, "required_final_county_share_points": 47.46260073167103, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 47.54260174546786, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.19983128370718, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.19983128370718, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.097924723527576, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.07865391656842785, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.999999999999999, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.857447235441455, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.857447235441455, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.73362224966682, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.10597932088248406, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -1.2349386486312781, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.052280982687625634, "criticality_score": 0.042334882583495395, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 88.66025437014059, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 88.66025437014059, "feasible": true, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 125.32449154400899, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 144.48953799003732, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Mallory McMorrow": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 3.7276960922891837, "expected_final_county_share_points": 3.719421673452217, "current_county_share_points": 3.4794396746497966, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 33.54396650996579, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 33.54396650996579, "required_final_county_share_points": 32.54191190233035, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 33.54396650996579, "p90": 89.05925371686244 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 869.8189299357201, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 33.54396650996579, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 33.54396650996579, "required_final_county_share_points": 32.54191190233035, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 33.54396650996579, "p90": 89.05925371686244 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 34.21599970086275, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 34.21599970086275, "required_final_county_share_points": 33.19154613916723, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.159018308558073, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999906, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 34.88840211774535, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 34.88840211774535, "required_final_county_share_points": 33.8415372956394, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.213613509684069, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.999999999999993, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -29.81627041767661, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "WELL BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.052280982687625634, "criticality_score": 0.001753438037529697, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 46.08028736559319, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 46.08028736559319, "feasible": true, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 82.74452453946158, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 82.74452453946158, "feasible": true, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 101.90957098548992, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } } } }, { "cid": "26049", "county": "26049", "fips": null, "reporting": 0.0, "current_votes": 0, "current_candidate_votes": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 0, "Haley Stevens": 0, "Mallory McMorrow": 0 }, "current_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": null, "Haley Stevens": null, "Mallory McMorrow": null }, "estimated_remaining_votes": 64183.37937851738, "estimated_final_votes": 64183.37937851738, "turnout_disagreement_votes": 0.0, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 48.32016286564123, "Haley Stevens": 47.702062163697065, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.977774970661694 }, "remaining_sources": [ { "model": "market", "remaining_votes": 64183.37937851738, "weight": 0.1780093144963334 } ], "share_sources": [ { "model": "v0", "weight": 0.03630604611298715, "source": "statewide raw" }, { "model": "v3", "weight": 0.06301781787712588, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "market", "weight": 0.18729675699179427, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "histgeo", "weight": 0.02760802595386354, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "latent", "weight": 0.03563066882913146, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "batchbias", "weight": 0.020512372723621893, "source": "statewide fallback" } ], "candidate_benchmarks": { "Abdul El-Sayed": { "opponent": "Haley Stevens", "expected_remaining_share_points": 48.32016286564123, "expected_final_county_share_points": 48.32016286564123, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 47.0877023519475, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 47.0877023519475, "required_final_county_share_points": 47.0877023519475, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 47.0877023519475, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 12.348533911789305, "feasible": true, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": false }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 47.0877023519475, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 47.0877023519475, "required_final_county_share_points": 47.0877023519475, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 47.0877023519475, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 47.742972592446094, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 47.742972592446094, "required_final_county_share_points": 47.742972592446094, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.024044322225107804, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999973, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.39840954113892, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.39840954113892, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.39840954113892, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.003259695682198218, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.9999999999999996, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": 1.2324605136937308, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "ABOVE", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.05228098268762563, "criticality_score": 0.04242000624501757, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 5.967571592337215, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 5.967571592337215, "feasible": true, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 42.63180876620562, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 42.63180876620562, "feasible": true, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 61.796855212233964, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 61.796855212233964, "feasible": true, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false } } }, "Haley Stevens": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 47.702062163697065, "expected_final_county_share_points": 47.702062163697065, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.934522677390795, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.934522677390795, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.934522677390795, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 48.934522677390795, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 83.673691117549, "feasible": true, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": false }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.934522677390795, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.934522677390795, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.934522677390795, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 48.934522677390795, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 49.58961977714004, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 49.58961977714004, "required_final_county_share_points": 49.58961977714004, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.07865391656842785, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.999999999999999, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 50.24453729886916, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 50.24453729886916, "required_final_county_share_points": 50.24453729886916, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.10597932088248406, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -1.2324605136937308, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.05228098268762563, "criticality_score": 0.04242000624501757, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 90.05465343700108, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 90.05465343700108, "feasible": true, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 126.71889061086948, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 145.88393705689782, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Mallory McMorrow": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 3.977774970661694, "expected_final_county_share_points": 3.977774970661694, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 33.863682428690794, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 33.863682428690794, "required_final_county_share_points": 33.863682428690794, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 33.863682428690794, "p90": 89.37896963558745 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 870.0690088140929, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 33.863682428690794, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 33.863682428690794, "required_final_county_share_points": 33.863682428690794, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 33.863682428690794, "p90": 89.37896963558745 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 34.500179277232114, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 34.500179277232114, "required_final_county_share_points": 34.500179277232114, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.159018308558073, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999906, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 35.13548073892272, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 35.13548073892272, "required_final_county_share_points": 35.13548073892272, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.213613509684069, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.999999999999993, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -29.8859074580291, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "WELL BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.05228098268762563, "criticality_score": 0.0017493523581657182, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 46.330366243965706, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 46.330366243965706, "feasible": true, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 82.99460341783411, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 82.99460341783411, "feasible": true, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 102.15964986386246, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } } } }, { "cid": "26125", "county": "26125", "fips": null, "reporting": 0.0, "current_votes": 0, "current_candidate_votes": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 0, "Haley Stevens": 0, "Mallory McMorrow": 0 }, "current_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": null, "Haley Stevens": null, "Mallory McMorrow": null }, "estimated_remaining_votes": 58294.288272976875, "estimated_final_votes": 58294.288272976875, "turnout_disagreement_votes": 0.0, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 48.44529292257174, "Haley Stevens": 48.29116444492259, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.2635426325056844 }, "remaining_sources": [ { "model": "market", "remaining_votes": 58294.288272976875, "weight": 0.1780093144963334 } ], "share_sources": [ { "model": "v0", "weight": 0.03630604611298715, "source": "statewide raw" }, { "model": "v3", "weight": 0.06301781787712588, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "market", "weight": 0.18729675699179427, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "histgeo", "weight": 0.02760802595386354, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "latent", "weight": 0.03563066882913146, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "batchbias", "weight": 0.020512372723621893, "source": "statewide fallback" } ], "candidate_benchmarks": { "Abdul El-Sayed": { "opponent": "Haley Stevens", "expected_remaining_share_points": 48.44529292257174, "expected_final_county_share_points": 48.44529292257174, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 47.20377120432641, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 47.20377120432641, "required_final_county_share_points": 47.20377120432641, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 47.20377120432641, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 8.839685299455613, "feasible": true, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": false }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 47.20377120432641, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 47.20377120432641, "required_final_county_share_points": 47.20377120432641, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 47.20377120432641, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 47.86382063640788, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 47.86382063640788, "required_final_county_share_points": 47.86382063640788, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.024044322225107804, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999973, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.52412530103267, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.52412530103267, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.524125301032676, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.003259695682198218, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.9999999999999996, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": 1.2415217182453304, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "ABOVE", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.04748398581529103, "criticality_score": 0.03824660101991705, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1.8140960439252893, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 1.8140960439252893, "feasible": true, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 42.18228157069173, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 42.18228157069173, "feasible": true, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 63.28344745322575, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 63.28344745322575, "feasible": true, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false } } }, "Haley Stevens": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 48.29116444492259, "expected_final_county_share_points": 48.291164444922586, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 49.53268616316792, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 49.53268616316792, "required_final_county_share_points": 49.53268616316792, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 49.53268616316792, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 87.89677206803871, "feasible": true, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": false }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 49.53268616316792, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 49.53268616316792, "required_final_county_share_points": 49.53268616316792, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 49.53268616316792, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 50.192473968431194, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 50.192473968431194, "required_final_county_share_points": 50.192473968431194, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.07865391656842785, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.999999999999999, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 50.85199375122856, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 50.85199375122856, "required_final_county_share_points": 50.85199375122856, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.10597932088248406, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -1.2415217182453233, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.04748398581529103, "criticality_score": 0.038246601019917274, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 94.92236132356905, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 94.92236132356905, "feasible": true, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 135.2905468503355, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 156.3917127328695, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Mallory McMorrow": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 3.2635426325056844, "expected_final_county_share_points": 3.263542632505684, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 31.052247924277015, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 31.052247924277015, "required_final_county_share_points": 31.052247924277015, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 31.052247924277015, "p90": 92.17588191432183 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 956.850315626011, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 31.052247924277015, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 31.052247924277015, "required_final_county_share_points": 31.052247924277015, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 31.052247924277015, "p90": 92.17588191432183 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 31.71537621950914, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 31.71537621950914, "required_final_county_share_points": 31.715376219509146, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.159018308558073, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999906, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 32.380589865647586, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 32.380589865647586, "required_final_county_share_points": 32.380589865647586, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.213613509684069, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.999999999999993, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -27.78870529177133, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "WELL BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.04748398581529103, "criticality_score": 0.0017087512828225136, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 49.89473951115213, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 49.89473951115213, "feasible": true, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 90.26292503791858, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 90.26292503791858, "feasible": true, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 111.3640909204526, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } } } }, { "cid": "fips:26125", "county": "Oakland", "fips": "26125", "reporting": 76.49, "current_votes": 189661, "current_candidate_votes": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 90108, "Haley Stevens": 94384, "Mallory McMorrow": 5169 }, "current_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 47.51003105540939, "Haley Stevens": 49.764579961088465, "Mallory McMorrow": 2.7253889835021434 }, "estimated_remaining_votes": 58294.28827297687, "estimated_final_votes": 247955.28827297688, "turnout_disagreement_votes": 7.275957614183426e-12, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 48.05095048633834, "Haley Stevens": 48.926352045629464, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.022697468032217 }, "remaining_sources": [ { "model": "v3", "remaining_votes": 58294.288272976875, "weight": 0.1342208488636769 }, { "model": "histgeo", "remaining_votes": 58294.288272976875, "weight": 0.05994207394479305 }, { "model": "latent", "remaining_votes": 58294.288272976875, "weight": 0.07672787409296966 }, { "model": "batchbias", "remaining_votes": 58294.288272976875, "weight": 0.045123489075924846 } ], "share_sources": [ { "model": "v0", "weight": 0.03630604611298715, "source": "statewide raw" }, { "model": "v1", "weight": 0.14599140026529184, "source": "county live" }, { "model": "v3", "weight": 0.15004242351696637, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "market", "weight": 0.0786646379365536, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "histgeo", "weight": 0.06573339512824654, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "latent", "weight": 0.08483492578364633, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "batchbias", "weight": 0.04883898267529022, "source": "county remaining" } ], "candidate_benchmarks": { "Abdul El-Sayed": { "opponent": "Haley Stevens", "expected_remaining_share_points": 48.05095048633834, "expected_final_county_share_points": 47.637201213620784, "current_county_share_points": 47.51003105540939, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 46.806775165819126, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 46.806775165819126, "required_final_county_share_points": 47.34469559576671, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 46.806775165819126, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 8.445342863222184, "feasible": true, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": false }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 46.806775165819126, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 46.806775165819126, "required_final_county_share_points": 47.34469559576671, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 46.806775165819126, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 47.46815093345519, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 47.46815093345519, "required_final_county_share_points": 47.50018503873796, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.024044322225107804, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999973, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.129974262940294, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.129974262940294, "required_final_county_share_points": 47.6557797034999, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.003259695682198218, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.9999999999999996, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": 1.2441753205192114, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "ABOVE", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.04748398581529102, "criticality_score": 0.038165027896129064, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1.4197536076918809, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 1.4197536076918809, "feasible": true, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 41.78793913445833, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 41.78793913445833, "feasible": true, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 62.889105016992346, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 62.889105016992346, "feasible": true, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false } } }, "Haley Stevens": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 48.926352045629464, "expected_final_county_share_points": 49.567512578164056, "current_county_share_points": 49.764579961088465, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 50.170527366148676, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 50.170527366148676, "required_final_county_share_points": 49.86001819601812, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 50.170527366148676, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 88.53195966874561, "feasible": true, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": false }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 50.170527366148676, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 50.170527366148676, "required_final_county_share_points": 49.86001819601812, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 50.170527366148676, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 50.831449473251624, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 50.831449473251624, "required_final_county_share_points": 50.01540098339802, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.07865391656842785, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.999999999999999, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 51.4919118268501, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 51.4919118268501, "required_final_county_share_points": 50.170675682729026, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.10597932088248406, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -1.2441753205192114, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.04748398581529102, "criticality_score": 0.038165027896129064, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 95.55754892427592, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 95.55754892427592, "feasible": true, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 135.92573445104236, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 157.0269003335764, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Mallory McMorrow": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 3.022697468032217, "expected_final_county_share_points": 2.7952862082151637, "current_county_share_points": 2.7253889835021434, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 29.826151683555835, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 29.826151683555835, "required_final_county_share_points": 9.096778294284768, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 29.826151683555835, "p90": 90.94978567360067 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 956.6094704615377, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 29.826151683555835, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 29.826151683555835, "required_final_county_share_points": 9.096778294284768, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 29.826151683555835, "p90": 90.94978567360067 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 30.490052066337945, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 30.490052066337945, "required_final_county_share_points": 9.25286127427684, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.159018308558073, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999906, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 31.157221746726655, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 31.157221746726655, "required_final_county_share_points": 9.409712866136227, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.213613509684069, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.999999999999993, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -26.80345421552362, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "WELL BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.04748398581529102, "criticality_score": 0.001771562181257592, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 49.653894346678676, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 49.653894346678676, "feasible": true, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 90.02207987344512, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 90.02207987344512, "feasible": true, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 111.12324575597916, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } } } }, { "cid": "26081", "county": "26081", "fips": null, "reporting": 0.0, "current_votes": 0, "current_candidate_votes": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 0, "Haley Stevens": 0, "Mallory McMorrow": 0 }, "current_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": null, "Haley Stevens": null, "Mallory McMorrow": null }, "estimated_remaining_votes": 46918.32971673878, "estimated_final_votes": 46918.32971673878, "turnout_disagreement_votes": 0.0, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 55.5704454339816, "Haley Stevens": 40.684312848059704, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.7452417179586988 }, "remaining_sources": [ { "model": "market", "remaining_votes": 46918.32971673878, "weight": 0.1780093144963334 } ], "share_sources": [ { "model": "v0", "weight": 0.03630604611298715, "source": "statewide raw" }, { "model": "v3", "weight": 0.06301781787712588, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "market", "weight": 0.18729675699179427, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "histgeo", "weight": 0.02760802595386354, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "latent", "weight": 0.03563066882913146, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "batchbias", "weight": 0.020512372723621893, "source": "statewide fallback" } ], "candidate_benchmarks": { "Abdul El-Sayed": { "opponent": "Haley Stevens", "expected_remaining_share_points": 55.5704454339816, "expected_final_county_share_points": 55.5704454339816, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 54.35989329691363, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 54.35989329691363, "required_final_county_share_points": 54.35989329691363, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 54.35989329691363, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 6.36194372586022, "feasible": true, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": false }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 54.35989329691363, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 54.35989329691363, "required_final_county_share_points": 54.35989329691363, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 54.35989329691363, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 55.00466430849242, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 55.00466430849242, "required_final_county_share_points": 55.00466430849242, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.024044322225107804, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999973, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 55.64699026577373, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 55.64699026577373, "required_final_county_share_points": 55.64699026577373, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.003259695682198218, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.9999999999999996, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": 1.210552137067964, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "ABOVE", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.038217625924417215, "criticality_score": 0.03157040886895032, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -2.367090914162368, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 47.788885617005285, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 47.788885617005285, "feasible": true, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 74.00630329318261, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 74.00630329318261, "feasible": true, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false } } }, "Haley Stevens": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 40.684312848059704, "expected_final_county_share_points": 40.684312848059704, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 41.89486498512767, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 41.89486498512767, "required_final_county_share_points": 41.89486498512767, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 41.89486498512767, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 89.8928145561811, "feasible": true, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": false }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 41.89486498512767, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 41.89486498512767, "required_final_county_share_points": 41.89486498512767, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 41.89486498512767, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 42.542088607376265, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 42.542088607376265, "required_final_county_share_points": 42.542088607376265, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.07865391656842785, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.999999999999999, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 43.191772393951084, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 43.191772393951084, "required_final_county_share_points": 43.191772393951084, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.10597932088248406, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -1.210552137067964, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.038217625924417215, "criticality_score": 0.03157040886895032, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 98.62184919620367, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 98.62184919620367, "feasible": true, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 148.7778257273713, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 174.99524340354864, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Mallory McMorrow": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 3.7452417179586988, "expected_final_county_share_points": 3.7452417179586983, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 35.62681895925808, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 35.62681895925808, "required_final_county_share_points": 35.62681895925808, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 35.62681895925808, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1188.5415158775038, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 35.62681895925808, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 35.62681895925808, "required_final_county_share_points": 35.62681895925808, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 35.62681895925808, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 36.38742530155471, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 36.38742530155471, "required_final_county_share_points": 36.38742530155471, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.159018308558073, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999906, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 37.15041458783238, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 37.15041458783238, "required_final_county_share_points": 37.15041458783238, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.213613509684069, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.999999999999993, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -31.881577241299382, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "WELL BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.038217625924417215, "criticality_score": 0.00119873698955239, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 61.682778066102664, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 61.682778066102664, "feasible": true, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 111.83875459727031, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 138.05617227344763, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } } } }, { "cid": "fips:26081", "county": "Kent", "fips": "26081", "reporting": 53.71, "current_votes": 44593, "current_candidate_votes": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 28845, "Haley Stevens": 14106, "Mallory McMorrow": 1642 }, "current_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 64.6850402529545, "Haley Stevens": 31.632767474715763, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.682192272329738 }, "estimated_remaining_votes": 46918.32971673878, "estimated_final_votes": 91511.32971673878, "turnout_disagreement_votes": 0.0, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 58.955819082444094, "Haley Stevens": 37.253445813321854, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.790735104234047 }, "remaining_sources": [ { "model": "v3", "remaining_votes": 46918.32971673878, "weight": 0.1342208488636769 }, { "model": "histgeo", "remaining_votes": 46918.32971673878, "weight": 0.05994207394479305 }, { "model": "latent", "remaining_votes": 46918.32971673878, "weight": 0.07672787409296966 }, { "model": "batchbias", "remaining_votes": 46918.32971673878, "weight": 0.045123489075924846 } ], "share_sources": [ { "model": "v0", "weight": 0.03630604611298715, "source": "statewide raw" }, { "model": "v1", "weight": 0.14599140026529184, "source": "county live" }, { "model": "v3", "weight": 0.15004242351696637, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "market", "weight": 0.0786646379365536, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "histgeo", "weight": 0.06573339512824654, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "latent", "weight": 0.08483492578364633, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "batchbias", "weight": 0.04883898267529022, "source": "county remaining" } ], "candidate_benchmarks": { "Abdul El-Sayed": { "opponent": "Haley Stevens", "expected_remaining_share_points": 58.955819082444094, "expected_final_county_share_points": 61.74763907290193, "current_county_share_points": 64.6850402529545, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 57.77711302226799, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 57.77711302226799, "required_final_county_share_points": 61.143310409537044, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 57.77711302226799, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 9.747317374322684, "feasible": true, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": false }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 57.77711302226799, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 57.77711302226799, "required_final_county_share_points": 61.143310409537044, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 57.77711302226799, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 58.405458715229976, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 58.405458715229976, "required_final_county_share_points": 61.46546648015406, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.024044322225107804, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999973, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 59.03020543489404, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 59.03020543489404, "required_final_county_share_points": 61.78577733863882, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.003259695682198218, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.9999999999999996, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": 1.1787060601761041, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "ABOVE", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.038217625924417215, "criticality_score": 0.03242337272679104, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1.0182827343001293, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 1.0182827343001293, "feasible": true, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 51.17425926546778, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 51.17425926546778, "feasible": true, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 77.3916769416451, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 77.3916769416451, "feasible": true, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false } } }, "Haley Stevens": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 37.253445813321854, "expected_final_county_share_points": 34.514518186225914, "current_county_share_points": 31.632767474715763, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 38.43215187349795, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 38.43215187349795, "required_final_county_share_points": 35.1188468495908, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 38.43215187349795, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 86.46194752144328, "feasible": true, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": false }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 38.43215187349795, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 38.43215187349795, "required_final_county_share_points": 35.1188468495908, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 38.43215187349795, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 39.064121442744295, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 39.064121442744295, "required_final_county_share_points": 35.4428609002294, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.07865391656842785, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.999999999999999, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 39.699739995801586, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 39.699739995801586, "required_final_county_share_points": 35.7687458036477, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.10597932088248406, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -1.178706060176097, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.038217625924417215, "criticality_score": 0.03242337272679124, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 95.19098216146583, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 95.19098216146583, "feasible": true, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 145.34695869263345, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 171.5643763688108, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Mallory McMorrow": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 3.790735104234047, "expected_final_county_share_points": 3.737842740872142, "current_county_share_points": 3.682192272329738, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 36.97590735309191, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 36.97590735309191, "required_final_county_share_points": 20.752051343218415, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 36.97590735309191, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1188.5870092637788, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 36.97590735309191, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 36.97590735309191, "required_final_county_share_points": 20.752051343218415, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 36.97590735309191, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 37.78822483357291, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 37.78822483357291, "required_final_county_share_points": 21.16853069612314, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.159018308558073, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999906, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 38.60407803748941, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 38.60407803748941, "required_final_county_share_points": 21.586822832630144, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.213613509684069, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.999999999999993, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -33.18517224885787, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "WELL BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.038217625924417215, "criticality_score": 0.0011516476587139772, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 61.72827145237801, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 61.72827145237801, "feasible": true, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 111.88424798354565, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 138.10166565972298, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } } } }, { "cid": "fips:26077", "county": "Kalamazoo", "fips": "26077", "reporting": 3.45, "current_votes": 1425, "current_candidate_votes": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 672, "Haley Stevens": 684, "Mallory McMorrow": 69 }, "current_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 47.1578947368421, "Haley Stevens": 48.0, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.842105263157895 }, "estimated_remaining_votes": 42085.15108479823, "estimated_final_votes": 43510.15108479823, "turnout_disagreement_votes": 0.0, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 48.734671319991016, "Haley Stevens": 47.095753229273704, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.169575450735297 }, "remaining_sources": [ { "model": "v3", "remaining_votes": 42085.15108479823, "weight": 0.1342208488636769 }, { "model": "histgeo", "remaining_votes": 42085.15108479823, "weight": 0.05994207394479305 }, { "model": "latent", "remaining_votes": 42085.15108479823, "weight": 0.07672787409296966 }, { "model": "batchbias", "remaining_votes": 42085.15108479823, "weight": 0.045123489075924846 } ], "share_sources": [ { "model": "v0", "weight": 0.03630604611298715, "source": "statewide raw" }, { "model": "v1", "weight": 0.14599140026529184, "source": "county live" }, { "model": "v3", "weight": 0.15004242351696637, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "market", "weight": 0.0786646379365536, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "histgeo", "weight": 0.06573339512824654, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "latent", "weight": 0.08483492578364633, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "batchbias", "weight": 0.04883898267529022, "source": "county remaining" } ], "candidate_benchmarks": { "Abdul El-Sayed": { "opponent": "Haley Stevens", "expected_remaining_share_points": 48.734671319991016, "expected_final_county_share_points": 48.68303034483999, "current_county_share_points": 47.1578947368421, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 47.504644632416884, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 47.504644632416884, "required_final_county_share_points": 47.49328823422302, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 47.504644632416884, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": -6.12507489682379, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": false }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 47.504644632416884, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 47.504644632416884, "required_final_county_share_points": 47.49328823422302, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 47.504644632416884, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.158704730197464, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.158704730197464, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.12592722414487, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.024044322225107804, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999973, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.812740738343926, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.812740738343926, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.75854291339167, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.003259695682198218, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.9999999999999996, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": 1.2300266875741315, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "ABOVE", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.03428072931926182, "criticality_score": 0.027869906942320537, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -15.856576739937118, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 40.05945500752544, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 40.05945500752544, "feasible": true, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 69.28775561107643, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 69.28775561107643, "feasible": true, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false } } }, "Haley Stevens": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 47.095753229273704, "expected_final_county_share_points": 47.12536819534848, "current_county_share_points": 48.0, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.325779916847814, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.325779916847814, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.31511030596544, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 48.325779916847814, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 101.95549944608851, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.325779916847814, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.325779916847814, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.31511030596544, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 48.325779916847814, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.97985761860826, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.97985761860826, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.947766323319584, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.07865391656842785, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.999999999999999, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 49.633946426461115, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 49.633946426461115, "required_final_county_share_points": 49.58043308303077, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.10597932088248406, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -1.2300266875741102, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.03428072931926182, "criticality_score": 0.02786990694232102, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 111.68700128920185, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 167.60303303666439, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 196.83133364021538, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Mallory McMorrow": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 4.169575450735297, "expected_final_county_share_points": 4.191601459811534, "current_county_share_points": 4.842105263157895, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 34.71907000596008, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 34.71907000596008, "required_final_county_share_points": 33.74057019161749, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 34.71907000596008, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1325.0312286778897, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 34.71907000596008, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 34.71907000596008, "required_final_county_share_points": 33.74057019161749, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 34.71907000596008, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 35.35515269829529, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 35.35515269829529, "required_final_county_share_points": 34.355820553703815, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.159018308558073, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999906, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 35.98944958427998, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 35.98944958427998, "required_final_county_share_points": 34.969343596344075, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.213613509684069, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.999999999999993, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -30.54949455522478, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "WELL BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.03428072931926182, "criticality_score": 0.0011221373649011454, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 68.76082351066343, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 68.76082351066343, "feasible": true, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 124.67685525812597, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 153.90515586167697, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } } } }, { "cid": "26077", "county": "26077", "fips": null, "reporting": 0.0, "current_votes": 0, "current_candidate_votes": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 0, "Haley Stevens": 0, "Mallory McMorrow": 0 }, "current_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": null, "Haley Stevens": null, "Mallory McMorrow": null }, "estimated_remaining_votes": 42085.15108479823, "estimated_final_votes": 42085.15108479823, "turnout_disagreement_votes": 0.0, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 50.90024768957419, "Haley Stevens": 45.17966253889734, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.9200897715284615 }, "remaining_sources": [ { "model": "market", "remaining_votes": 42085.15108479823, "weight": 0.1780093144963334 } ], "share_sources": [ { "model": "v0", "weight": 0.03630604611298715, "source": "statewide raw" }, { "model": "v3", "weight": 0.06301781787712588, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "market", "weight": 0.18729675699179427, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "histgeo", "weight": 0.02760802595386354, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "latent", "weight": 0.03563066882913146, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "batchbias", "weight": 0.020512372723621893, "source": "statewide fallback" } ], "candidate_benchmarks": { "Abdul El-Sayed": { "opponent": "Haley Stevens", "expected_remaining_share_points": 50.90024768957419, "expected_final_county_share_points": 50.9002476895742, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 49.669690025912665, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 49.669690025912665, "required_final_county_share_points": 49.66969002591267, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 49.669690025912665, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": -3.9594985272406014, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": false }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 49.669690025912665, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 49.669690025912665, "required_final_county_share_points": 49.66969002591267, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 49.669690025912665, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 50.3243665304265, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 50.3243665304265, "required_final_county_share_points": 50.3243665304265, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.024044322225107804, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999973, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 50.978260301772785, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 50.978260301772785, "required_final_county_share_points": 50.978260301772785, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.003259695682198218, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.9999999999999996, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": 1.2305576636615285, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "ABOVE", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.03428072931926182, "criticality_score": 0.027857881293639985, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -13.69100037035394, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 42.22503137710862, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 42.22503137710862, "feasible": true, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 71.45333198065961, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 71.45333198065961, "feasible": true, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false } } }, "Haley Stevens": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 45.17966253889734, "expected_final_county_share_points": 45.17966253889735, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 46.41022020255887, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 46.41022020255887, "required_final_county_share_points": 46.41022020255887, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 46.41022020255887, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 100.03940875571213, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 46.41022020255887, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 46.41022020255887, "required_final_county_share_points": 46.41022020255887, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 46.41022020255887, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 47.065674342109794, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 47.065674342109794, "required_final_county_share_points": 47.0656743421098, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.07865391656842785, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.999999999999999, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 47.7219009794269, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 47.7219009794269, "required_final_county_share_points": 47.7219009794269, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.10597932088248406, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -1.2305576636615285, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.03428072931926182, "criticality_score": 0.027857881293639985, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 109.77091059882548, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 165.68694234628802, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 194.915242949839, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Mallory McMorrow": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 3.9200897715284615, "expected_final_county_share_points": 3.9200897715284615, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 34.655365995069495, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 34.655365995069495, "required_final_county_share_points": 34.655365995069495, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 34.655365995069495, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1324.781742998683, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 34.655365995069495, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 34.655365995069495, "required_final_county_share_points": 34.655365995069495, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 34.655365995069495, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 35.33567012761816, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 35.33567012761816, "required_final_county_share_points": 35.33567012761816, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.159018308558073, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999906, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 36.01580912167236, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 36.01580912167236, "required_final_county_share_points": 36.01580912167236, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.213613509684069, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.999999999999993, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -30.735276223541035, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "WELL BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.03428072931926182, "criticality_score": 0.001115354521948471, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 68.5113378314566, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 68.5113378314566, "feasible": true, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 124.42736957891914, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 153.65567018247015, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } } } }, { "cid": "26065", "county": "26065", "fips": null, "reporting": 0.0, "current_votes": 0, "current_candidate_votes": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 0, "Haley Stevens": 0, "Mallory McMorrow": 0 }, "current_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": null, "Haley Stevens": null, "Mallory McMorrow": null }, "estimated_remaining_votes": 38632.62316125496, "estimated_final_votes": 38632.62316125496, "turnout_disagreement_votes": 0.0, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 54.99777016776418, "Haley Stevens": 41.14031902440786, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.861910807827952 }, "remaining_sources": [ { "model": "market", "remaining_votes": 38632.62316125496, "weight": 0.1780093144963334 } ], "share_sources": [ { "model": "v0", "weight": 0.03630604611298715, "source": "statewide raw" }, { "model": "v3", "weight": 0.06301781787712588, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "market", "weight": 0.18729675699179427, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "histgeo", "weight": 0.02760802595386354, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "latent", "weight": 0.03563066882913146, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "batchbias", "weight": 0.020512372723621893, "source": "statewide fallback" } ], "candidate_benchmarks": { "Abdul El-Sayed": { "opponent": "Haley Stevens", "expected_remaining_share_points": 54.99777016776418, "expected_final_county_share_points": 54.99777016776418, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 53.785122988624344, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 53.785122988624344, "required_final_county_share_points": 53.785122988624344, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 53.785122988624344, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": -4.764692721989583, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": false }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 53.785122988624344, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 53.785122988624344, "required_final_county_share_points": 53.785122988624344, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 53.785122988624344, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 54.43092810739958, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 54.43092810739958, "required_final_county_share_points": 54.43092810739958, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.024044322225107804, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999973, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 55.07446955736345, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 55.07446955736345, "required_final_county_share_points": 55.07446955736345, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.003259695682198218, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.9999999999999996, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": 1.2126471791398359, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "ABOVE", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.031468450589984986, "criticality_score": 0.02595021134861867, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -15.36588135057223, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 45.54726540448473, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 45.54726540448473, "feasible": true, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 77.38764656933402, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 77.38764656933402, "feasible": true, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false } } }, "Haley Stevens": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 41.14031902440786, "expected_final_county_share_points": 41.14031902440786, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 42.35296620354768, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 42.35296620354768, "required_final_county_share_points": 42.35296620354768, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 42.35296620354768, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 100.90278191416162, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 42.35296620354768, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 42.35296620354768, "required_final_county_share_points": 42.35296620354768, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 42.35296620354768, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 43.00104051727138, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 43.00104051727138, "required_final_county_share_points": 43.00104051727138, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.07865391656842785, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.999999999999999, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 43.65138953432688, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 43.65138953432688, "required_final_county_share_points": 43.65138953432688, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.10597932088248406, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -1.2126471791398217, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.031468450589984986, "criticality_score": 0.025950211348618975, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 111.50397054274427, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 172.4171172978012, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 204.25749846265052, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Mallory McMorrow": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 3.861910807827952, "expected_final_county_share_points": 3.861910807827952, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 35.929829627630944, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 35.929829627630944, "required_final_county_share_points": 35.929829627630944, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 35.929829627630944, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1442.7665900513427, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 35.929829627630944, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 35.929829627630944, "required_final_county_share_points": 35.929829627630944, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 35.929829627630944, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 36.67768764353921, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 36.67768764353921, "required_final_county_share_points": 36.67768764353921, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.159018308558073, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999906, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 37.42710211756107, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 37.42710211756107, "required_final_county_share_points": 37.42710211756107, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.213613509684069, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.999999999999993, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -32.06791881980299, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "WELL BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.031468450589984986, "criticality_score": 0.0009813062945186262, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 74.22556232616436, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 74.22556232616436, "feasible": true, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 135.1387090812213, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 166.9790902460706, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } } } }, { "cid": "fips:26065", "county": "Ingham", "fips": "26065", "reporting": 34.23, "current_votes": 18881, "current_candidate_votes": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 12359, "Haley Stevens": 5816, "Mallory McMorrow": 706 }, "current_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 65.45733806472114, "Haley Stevens": 30.8034532069276, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.7392087283512523 }, "estimated_remaining_votes": 38632.62316125496, "estimated_final_votes": 57513.62316125496, "turnout_disagreement_votes": 0.0, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 58.788481646433965, "Haley Stevens": 37.46941742968788, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.742100923878158 }, "remaining_sources": [ { "model": "v3", "remaining_votes": 38632.62316125496, "weight": 0.1342208488636769 }, { "model": "histgeo", "remaining_votes": 38632.62316125496, "weight": 0.05994207394479305 }, { "model": "latent", "remaining_votes": 38632.62316125496, "weight": 0.07672787409296966 }, { "model": "batchbias", "remaining_votes": 38632.62316125496, "weight": 0.045123489075924846 } ], "share_sources": [ { "model": "v0", "weight": 0.03630604611298715, "source": "statewide raw" }, { "model": "v1", "weight": 0.14599140026529184, "source": "county live" }, { "model": "v3", "weight": 0.15004242351696637, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "market", "weight": 0.0786646379365536, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "histgeo", "weight": 0.06573339512824654, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "latent", "weight": 0.08483492578364633, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "batchbias", "weight": 0.04883898267529022, "source": "county remaining" } ], "candidate_benchmarks": { "Abdul El-Sayed": { "opponent": "Haley Stevens", "expected_remaining_share_points": 58.788481646433965, "expected_final_county_share_points": 60.97778343464934, "current_county_share_points": 65.45733806472114, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 57.60702941012321, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 57.60702941012321, "required_final_county_share_points": 60.18418712616352, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 57.60702941012321, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": -0.9739812433198602, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": false }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 57.60702941012321, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 57.60702941012321, "required_final_county_share_points": 60.18418712616352, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 57.60702941012321, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 58.23680794169639, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 58.23680794169639, "required_final_county_share_points": 60.607217277074035, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.024044322225107804, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999973, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 58.863049687974744, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 58.863049687974744, "required_final_county_share_points": 61.02787172487304, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.003259695682198218, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.9999999999999996, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": 1.1814522363107542, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "ABOVE", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.031468450589984986, "criticality_score": 0.02663539804897193, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -11.575169871902446, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 49.33797688315452, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 49.33797688315452, "feasible": true, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 81.1783580480038, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 81.1783580480038, "feasible": true, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false } } }, "Haley Stevens": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 37.46941742968788, "expected_final_county_share_points": 35.28106511293235, "current_county_share_points": 30.8034532069276, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 38.650869665998634, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 38.650869665998634, "required_final_county_share_points": 36.074661421418156, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 38.650869665998634, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 97.2318803194417, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 38.650869665998634, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 38.650869665998634, "required_final_county_share_points": 36.074661421418156, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 38.650869665998634, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 39.28420873044954, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 39.28420873044954, "required_final_county_share_points": 36.50008322698989, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.07865391656842785, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.999999999999999, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 39.921132262353645, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 39.921132262353645, "required_final_county_share_points": 36.92791276437788, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.10597932088248406, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -1.1814522363107542, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.031468450589984986, "criticality_score": 0.02663539804897193, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 107.83306894802429, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 168.74621570308125, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 200.58659686793055, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Mallory McMorrow": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 3.742100923878158, "expected_final_county_share_points": 3.7411514524183196, "current_county_share_points": 3.7392087283512523, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 36.696095482698844, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 36.696095482698844, "required_final_county_share_points": 25.87676356434333, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 36.696095482698844, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1442.6467801673932, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 36.696095482698844, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 36.696095482698844, "required_final_county_share_points": 25.87676356434333, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 36.696095482698844, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 37.50716003370873, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 37.50716003370873, "required_final_county_share_points": 26.421565811817203, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.159018308558073, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999906, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 38.32196796166269, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 38.32196796166269, "required_final_county_share_points": 26.968882532608575, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.213613509684069, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.999999999999993, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -32.95399455882069, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "WELL BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.031468450589984986, "criticality_score": 0.0009549206708102077, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 74.10575244221457, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 74.10575244221457, "feasible": true, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 135.0188991972715, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 166.8592803621208, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } } } }, { "cid": "fips:26161", "county": "Washtenaw", "fips": "26161", "reporting": 64.95, "current_votes": 58927, "current_candidate_votes": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 37769, "Haley Stevens": 19283, "Mallory McMorrow": 1875 }, "current_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 64.0945576730531, "Haley Stevens": 32.72353929438118, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.1819030325657165 }, "estimated_remaining_votes": 36375.12128089261, "estimated_final_votes": 95302.1212808926, "turnout_disagreement_votes": 0.0, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 59.70931040800656, "Haley Stevens": 36.93183416316839, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.358855428825059 }, "remaining_sources": [ { "model": "v3", "remaining_votes": 36375.12128089261, "weight": 0.1342208488636769 }, { "model": "histgeo", "remaining_votes": 36375.12128089261, "weight": 0.05994207394479305 }, { "model": "latent", "remaining_votes": 36375.12128089261, "weight": 0.07672787409296966 }, { "model": "batchbias", "remaining_votes": 36375.12128089261, "weight": 0.045123489075924846 } ], "share_sources": [ { "model": "v0", "weight": 0.03630604611298715, "source": "statewide raw" }, { "model": "v1", "weight": 0.14599140026529184, "source": "county live" }, { "model": "v3", "weight": 0.15004242351696637, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "market", "weight": 0.0786646379365536, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "histgeo", "weight": 0.06573339512824654, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "latent", "weight": 0.08483492578364633, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "batchbias", "weight": 0.04883898267529022, "source": "county remaining" } ], "candidate_benchmarks": { "Abdul El-Sayed": { "opponent": "Haley Stevens", "expected_remaining_share_points": 59.70931040800656, "expected_final_county_share_points": 62.420786942991164, "current_county_share_points": 64.0945576730531, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 58.53082666603289, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 58.53082666603289, "required_final_county_share_points": 61.970980700845665, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 58.53082666603289, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": -3.7621125511002274, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": false }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 58.53082666603289, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 58.53082666603289, "required_final_county_share_points": 61.970980700845665, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 58.53082666603289, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 59.1591304661044, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 59.1591304661044, "required_final_county_share_points": 62.210793064113915, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.024044322225107804, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999973, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 59.78366208045847, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 59.78366208045847, "required_final_county_share_points": 62.44916565131922, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.003259695682198218, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.9999999999999996, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": 1.1784837419736718, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "ABOVE", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.029629587976839223, "criticality_score": 0.02514212705829689, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -15.021228972645943, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 49.67229124911234, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 49.67229124911234, "feasible": true, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 83.48874061167396, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 83.48874061167396, "feasible": true, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false } } }, "Haley Stevens": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 36.93183416316839, "expected_final_county_share_points": 34.3297704483207, "current_county_share_points": 32.72353929438118, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 38.110317905142054, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 38.110317905142054, "required_final_county_share_points": 34.7795766904662, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 38.110317905142054, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 100.40325712227518, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 38.110317905142054, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 38.110317905142054, "required_final_county_share_points": 34.7795766904662, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 38.110317905142054, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 38.74242188266314, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 38.74242188266314, "required_final_county_share_points": 35.020839513742665, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.07865391656842785, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.999999999999999, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 39.378354281914575, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 39.378354281914575, "required_final_county_share_points": 35.26356357736597, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.10597932088248406, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -1.1784837419736647, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.029629587976839223, "criticality_score": 0.02514212705829704, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 111.66237354382089, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 176.35589376557917, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 210.1723431281408, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Mallory McMorrow": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 3.358855428825059, "expected_final_county_share_points": 3.2494426086881285, "current_county_share_points": 3.1819030325657165, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 35.10368748023869, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 35.10368748023869, "required_final_county_share_points": 15.365879267094925, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 35.10368748023869, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1531.5644058356409, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 35.10368748023869, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 35.10368748023869, "required_final_county_share_points": 15.365879267094925, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 35.10368748023869, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 35.937715925702456, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 35.937715925702456, "required_final_county_share_points": 15.684213061219415, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.159018308558073, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999906, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 36.77832079129234, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 36.77832079129234, "required_final_county_share_points": 16.00505695770539, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.213613509684069, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.999999999999993, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -31.74483205141363, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "WELL BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.029629587976839223, "criticality_score": 0.0009333672935755786, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 78.08939480947757, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 78.08939480947757, "feasible": true, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 142.78291503123583, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 176.59936439379746, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } } } }, { "cid": "26161", "county": "26161", "fips": null, "reporting": 0.0, "current_votes": 0, "current_candidate_votes": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 0, "Haley Stevens": 0, "Mallory McMorrow": 0 }, "current_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": null, "Haley Stevens": null, "Mallory McMorrow": null }, "estimated_remaining_votes": 36375.12128089261, "estimated_final_votes": 36375.12128089261, "turnout_disagreement_votes": 0.0, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 55.250256384218766, "Haley Stevens": 41.28135115729634, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.4683924584848826 }, "remaining_sources": [ { "model": "market", "remaining_votes": 36375.12128089261, "weight": 0.1780093144963334 } ], "share_sources": [ { "model": "v0", "weight": 0.03630604611298715, "source": "statewide raw" }, { "model": "v3", "weight": 0.06301781787712588, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "market", "weight": 0.18729675699179427, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "histgeo", "weight": 0.02760802595386354, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "latent", "weight": 0.03563066882913146, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "batchbias", "weight": 0.020512372723621893, "source": "statewide fallback" } ], "candidate_benchmarks": { "Abdul El-Sayed": { "opponent": "Haley Stevens", "expected_remaining_share_points": 55.250256384218766, "expected_final_county_share_points": 55.250256384218766, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 54.03283138290259, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 54.03283138290259, "required_final_county_share_points": 54.03283138290259, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 54.03283138290259, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": -8.22116657488804, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": false }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 54.03283138290259, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 54.03283138290259, "required_final_county_share_points": 54.03283138290259, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 54.03283138290259, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 54.6811853966236, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 54.6811853966236, "required_final_county_share_points": 54.6811853966236, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.024044322225107804, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999973, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 55.32725677303125, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 55.32725677303125, "required_final_county_share_points": 55.32725677303125, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.003259695682198218, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.9999999999999996, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": 1.2174250013161725, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "ABOVE", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.029629587976839223, "criticality_score": 0.024337916458760357, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -19.480282996433736, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 45.21323722532455, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 45.21323722532455, "feasible": true, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 79.02968658788618, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 79.02968658788618, "feasible": true, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false } } }, "Haley Stevens": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 41.28135115729634, "expected_final_county_share_points": 41.28135115729634, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 42.498776158612515, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 42.498776158612515, "required_final_county_share_points": 42.498776158612515, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 42.498776158612515, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 104.75277411640316, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 42.498776158612515, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 42.498776158612515, "required_final_county_share_points": 42.498776158612515, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 42.498776158612515, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 43.14941846403302, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 43.14941846403302, "required_final_county_share_points": 43.14941846403302, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.07865391656842785, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.999999999999999, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 43.802354698439075, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 43.802354698439075, "required_final_county_share_points": 43.802354698439075, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.10597932088248406, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -1.2174250013161725, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.029629587976839223, "criticality_score": 0.024337916458760357, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 116.01189053794884, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 180.70541075970712, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 214.52186012226875, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Mallory McMorrow": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 3.4683924584848826, "expected_final_county_share_points": 3.4683924584848826, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 34.26117635214319, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 34.26117635214319, "required_final_county_share_points": 34.26117635214319, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 34.26117635214319, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1531.6739428653004, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 34.26117635214319, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 34.26117635214319, "required_final_county_share_points": 34.26117635214319, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 34.26117635214319, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 35.02473832137051, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 35.02473832137051, "required_final_county_share_points": 35.02473832137051, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.159018308558073, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999906, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 35.79210175411999, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 35.79210175411999, "required_final_county_share_points": 35.79210175411999, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.213613509684069, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.999999999999993, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -30.792783893658306, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "WELL BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.029629587976839223, "criticality_score": 0.0009622250485426671, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 78.19893183913739, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 78.19893183913739, "feasible": true, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 142.89245206089566, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 176.7089014234573, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } } } }, { "cid": "26121", "county": "26121", "fips": null, "reporting": 0.0, "current_votes": 0, "current_candidate_votes": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 0, "Haley Stevens": 0, "Mallory McMorrow": 0 }, "current_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": null, "Haley Stevens": null, "Mallory McMorrow": null }, "estimated_remaining_votes": 24944.417489173677, "estimated_final_votes": 24944.417489173677, "turnout_disagreement_votes": 0.0, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 51.520003701578986, "Haley Stevens": 44.646485246666586, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.8335110517544244 }, "remaining_sources": [ { "model": "market", "remaining_votes": 24944.417489173677, "weight": 0.1780093144963334 } ], "share_sources": [ { "model": "v0", "weight": 0.03630604611298715, "source": "statewide raw" }, { "model": "v3", "weight": 0.06301781787712588, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "market", "weight": 0.18729675699179427, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "histgeo", "weight": 0.02760802595386354, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "latent", "weight": 0.03563066882913146, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "batchbias", "weight": 0.020512372723621893, "source": "statewide fallback" } ], "candidate_benchmarks": { "Abdul El-Sayed": { "opponent": "Haley Stevens", "expected_remaining_share_points": 51.520003701578986, "expected_final_county_share_points": 51.520003701578986, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 50.28989257017238, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 50.28989257017238, "required_final_county_share_points": 50.28989257017238, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 50.28989257017238, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": -41.03700665997362, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": false }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 50.28989257017238, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 50.28989257017238, "required_final_county_share_points": 50.28989257017238, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 50.28989257017238, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 50.944425492966886, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 50.944425492966886, "required_final_county_share_points": 50.944425492966886, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.024044322225107804, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999973, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 51.59796256226642, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 51.59796256226642, "required_final_county_share_points": 51.59796256226642, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.003259695682198218, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.9999999999999996, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": 1.230111131406609, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "ABOVE", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.02031863500382924, "criticality_score": 0.01651772306181415, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -57.45557909315096, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 36.88355090159362, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 36.88355090159362, "feasible": true, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 86.1962858005432, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 86.1962858005432, "feasible": true, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false } } }, "Haley Stevens": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 44.646485246666586, "expected_final_county_share_points": 44.64648524666659, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 45.876596378073195, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 45.876596378073195, "required_final_county_share_points": 45.876596378073195, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 45.876596378073195, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 137.20349560821919, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 45.876596378073195, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 45.876596378073195, "required_final_county_share_points": 45.876596378073195, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 45.876596378073195, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 46.53212092613422, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 46.53212092613422, "required_final_county_share_points": 46.53212092613422, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.07865391656842785, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.999999999999999, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 47.18863282712712, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 47.18863282712712, "required_final_county_share_points": 47.18863282712712, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.10597932088248406, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -1.230111131406609, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.02031863500382924, "criticality_score": 0.01651772306181415, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 153.62206804139652, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 247.96119803614107, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 297.27393293509067, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Mallory McMorrow": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 3.8335110517544244, "expected_final_county_share_points": 3.833511051754424, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 34.54719716022258, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 34.54719716022258, "required_final_county_share_points": 34.54719716022258, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 34.54719716022258, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 2232.334628077543, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 34.54719716022258, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 34.54719716022258, "required_final_county_share_points": 34.54719716022258, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 34.54719716022258, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 35.24050484242717, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 35.24050484242717, "required_final_county_share_points": 35.240504842427164, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.159018308558073, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999906, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 35.93423972785248, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 35.93423972785248, "required_final_county_share_points": 35.93423972785248, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.213613509684069, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.999999999999993, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -30.713686108468156, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "WELL BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.02031863500382924, "criticality_score": 0.0006615498684225705, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 112.80909384648437, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 207.1482238412289, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 256.4609587401785, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } } } }, { "cid": "fips:26121", "county": "Muskegon", "fips": "26121", "reporting": 0.0, "current_votes": 0, "current_candidate_votes": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 0, "Haley Stevens": 0, "Mallory McMorrow": 0 }, "current_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": null, "Haley Stevens": null, "Mallory McMorrow": null }, "estimated_remaining_votes": 24944.417489173677, "estimated_final_votes": 24944.417489173677, "turnout_disagreement_votes": 0.0, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 49.30414521844237, "Haley Stevens": 46.83807110573469, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.8577836758229345 }, "remaining_sources": [ { "model": "v3", "remaining_votes": 24944.417489173677, "weight": 0.1342208488636769 }, { "model": "histgeo", "remaining_votes": 24944.417489173677, "weight": 0.05994207394479305 }, { "model": "latent", "remaining_votes": 24944.417489173677, "weight": 0.07672787409296966 }, { "model": "batchbias", "remaining_votes": 24944.417489173677, "weight": 0.045123489075924846 } ], "share_sources": [ { "model": "v0", "weight": 0.03630604611298715, "source": "statewide raw" }, { "model": "v3", "weight": 0.15004242351696637, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "market", "weight": 0.0786646379365536, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "histgeo", "weight": 0.06573339512824654, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "latent", "weight": 0.08483492578364633, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "batchbias", "weight": 0.04883898267529022, "source": "county remaining" } ], "candidate_benchmarks": { "Abdul El-Sayed": { "opponent": "Haley Stevens", "expected_remaining_share_points": 49.30414521844237, "expected_final_county_share_points": 49.304145218442365, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.07029682055077, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.07029682055077, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.07029682055077, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 48.07029682055077, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": -43.252865143110256, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": false }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.07029682055077, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.07029682055077, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.07029682055077, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 48.07029682055077, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.72645653346215, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.72645653346215, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.72645653346215, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.024044322225107804, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999973, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 49.38243891942384, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 49.38243891942384, "required_final_county_share_points": 49.38243891942384, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.003259695682198218, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.9999999999999996, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": 1.2338483978915988, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "ABOVE", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.02031863500382924, "criticality_score": 0.016467691686069163, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -59.67143757628757, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 34.66769241845701, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 34.66769241845701, "feasible": true, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 83.98042731740657, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 83.98042731740657, "feasible": true, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false } } }, "Haley Stevens": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 46.83807110573469, "expected_final_county_share_points": 46.83807110573469, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.07191950362628, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.07191950362628, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.07191950362628, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 48.07191950362628, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 139.3950814672873, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.07191950362628, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.07191950362628, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.07191950362628, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 48.07191950362628, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.728250105311396, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.728250105311396, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.728250105311396, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.07865391656842785, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.999999999999999, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 49.38474513927121, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 49.38474513927121, "required_final_county_share_points": 49.38474513927121, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.10597932088248406, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -1.2338483978915917, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.02031863500382924, "criticality_score": 0.01646769168606926, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 155.81365390046463, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 250.15278389520918, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 299.4655187941588, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Mallory McMorrow": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 3.8577836758229345, "expected_final_county_share_points": 3.8577836758229345, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 33.80235596161166, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 33.80235596161166, "required_final_county_share_points": 33.80235596161166, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 33.80235596161166, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 2232.358900701611, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 33.80235596161166, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 33.80235596161166, "required_final_county_share_points": 33.80235596161166, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 33.80235596161166, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 34.459156584430986, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 34.459156584430986, "required_final_county_share_points": 34.459156584430986, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.159018308558073, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999906, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 35.11554033322278, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 35.11554033322278, "required_final_county_share_points": 35.11554033322278, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.213613509684069, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.999999999999993, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -29.944572285788727, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "WELL BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.02031863500382924, "criticality_score": 0.0006785415002728952, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 112.83336647055287, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 207.17249646529743, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 256.48523136424706, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } } } }, { "cid": "26145", "county": "26145", "fips": null, "reporting": 0.0, "current_votes": 0, "current_candidate_votes": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 0, "Haley Stevens": 0, "Mallory McMorrow": 0 }, "current_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": null, "Haley Stevens": null, "Mallory McMorrow": null }, "estimated_remaining_votes": 24686.364928707186, "estimated_final_votes": 24686.364928707186, "turnout_disagreement_votes": 0.0, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 47.3164798825988, "Haley Stevens": 48.541891474829086, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.141628642572111 }, "remaining_sources": [ { "model": "market", "remaining_votes": 24686.364928707186, "weight": 0.1780093144963334 } ], "share_sources": [ { "model": "v0", "weight": 0.03630604611298715, "source": "statewide raw" }, { "model": "v3", "weight": 0.06301781787712588, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "market", "weight": 0.18729675699179427, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "histgeo", "weight": 0.02760802595386354, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "latent", "weight": 0.03563066882913146, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "batchbias", "weight": 0.020512372723621893, "source": "statewide fallback" } ], "candidate_benchmarks": { "Abdul El-Sayed": { "opponent": "Haley Stevens", "expected_remaining_share_points": 47.3164798825988, "expected_final_county_share_points": 47.3164798825988, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 46.08687925613225, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 46.08687925613225, "required_final_county_share_points": 46.08687925613225, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 46.08687925613225, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": -46.20805135867433, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": false }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 46.08687925613225, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 46.08687925613225, "required_final_county_share_points": 46.08687925613225, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 46.08687925613225, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 46.740477928228145, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 46.740477928228145, "required_final_county_share_points": 46.740477928228145, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.024044322225107804, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999973, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 47.39458595471629, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 47.39458595471629, "required_final_county_share_points": 47.39458595471629, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.003259695682198218, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.9999999999999996, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": 1.2296006264665493, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "ABOVE", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.020108436638195008, "criticality_score": 0.016353632395243456, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -62.79825111194597, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 32.527028691311564, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 32.527028691311564, "feasible": true, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 82.35524156934105, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 82.35524156934105, "feasible": true, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false } } }, "Haley Stevens": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 48.541891474829086, "expected_final_county_share_points": 48.54189147482909, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 49.77149210129564, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 49.77149210129564, "required_final_county_share_points": 49.77149210129564, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 49.77149210129564, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 142.0664227161022, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 49.77149210129564, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 49.77149210129564, "required_final_county_share_points": 49.77149210129564, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 49.77149210129564, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 50.424575539235505, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 50.424575539235505, "required_final_county_share_points": 50.424575539235505, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.07865391656842785, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.999999999999999, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 51.077137871230214, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 51.077137871230214, "required_final_county_share_points": 51.077137871230214, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.10597932088248406, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -1.2296006264665564, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.020108436638195008, "criticality_score": 0.01635363239524336, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 158.65662246937387, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 253.98190227263137, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 303.81011515066086, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Mallory McMorrow": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 4.141628642572111, "expected_final_county_share_points": 4.141628642572111, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 34.033815887345995, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 34.033815887345995, "required_final_county_share_points": 34.033815887345995, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 34.033815887345995, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 2255.9378083846295, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 34.033815887345995, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 34.033815887345995, "required_final_county_share_points": 34.033815887345995, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 34.033815887345995, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 34.64787734773098, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 34.64787734773098, "required_final_county_share_points": 34.64787734773098, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.159018308558073, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999906, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 35.25988086202239, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 35.25988086202239, "required_final_county_share_points": 35.25988086202239, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.213613509684069, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.999999999999993, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -29.892187244773883, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "WELL BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.020108436638195008, "criticality_score": 0.0006726987380861737, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 114.25635963711689, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 209.58163944037437, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 259.4098523184039, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } } } }, { "cid": "fips:26145", "county": "Saginaw", "fips": "26145", "reporting": 16.6, "current_votes": 4432, "current_candidate_votes": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 1944, "Haley Stevens": 2277, "Mallory McMorrow": 211 }, "current_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 43.86281588447653, "Haley Stevens": 51.37635379061371, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.760830324909747 }, "estimated_remaining_votes": 24686.364928707186, "estimated_final_votes": 29118.364928707186, "turnout_disagreement_votes": 0.0, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 46.635453647741876, "Haley Stevens": 49.07054608614816, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.294000266109956 }, "remaining_sources": [ { "model": "v3", "remaining_votes": 24686.364928707186, "weight": 0.1342208488636769 }, { "model": "histgeo", "remaining_votes": 24686.364928707186, "weight": 0.05994207394479305 }, { "model": "latent", "remaining_votes": 24686.364928707186, "weight": 0.07672787409296966 }, { "model": "batchbias", "remaining_votes": 24686.364928707186, "weight": 0.045123489075924846 } ], "share_sources": [ { "model": "v0", "weight": 0.03630604611298715, "source": "statewide raw" }, { "model": "v1", "weight": 0.14599140026529184, "source": "county live" }, { "model": "v3", "weight": 0.15004242351696637, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "market", "weight": 0.0786646379365536, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "histgeo", "weight": 0.06573339512824654, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "latent", "weight": 0.08483492578364633, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "batchbias", "weight": 0.04883898267529022, "source": "county remaining" } ], "candidate_benchmarks": { "Abdul El-Sayed": { "opponent": "Haley Stevens", "expected_remaining_share_points": 46.635453647741876, "expected_final_county_share_points": 46.21344057809053, "current_county_share_points": 43.86281588447653, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 45.408800211700914, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 45.408800211700914, "required_final_county_share_points": 45.17349158242059, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 45.408800211700914, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": -46.88907759353095, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": false }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 45.408800211700914, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 45.408800211700914, "required_final_county_share_points": 45.17349158242059, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 45.408800211700914, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 46.06073309027297, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 46.06073309027297, "required_final_county_share_points": 45.72619613808009, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.024044322225107804, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999973, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 46.71339942917931, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 46.71339942917931, "required_final_county_share_points": 46.279522516754625, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.003259695682198218, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.9999999999999996, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": 1.2266534360409622, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "ABOVE", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.020108436638195008, "criticality_score": 0.016392924070791515, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -63.479277346802895, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 31.84600245645464, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 31.84600245645464, "feasible": true, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 81.67421533448413, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 81.67421533448413, "feasible": true, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false } } }, "Haley Stevens": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 49.07054608614816, "expected_final_county_share_points": 49.42150465718099, "current_county_share_points": 51.37635379061371, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 50.29719952218914, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 50.29719952218914, "required_final_county_share_points": 50.46145365285094, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 50.29719952218914, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 142.595077327421, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 50.29719952218914, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 50.29719952218914, "required_final_county_share_points": 50.46145365285094, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 50.29719952218914, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 50.948393721474886, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 50.948393721474886, "required_final_county_share_points": 51.013531960901005, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.07865391656842785, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.999999999999999, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 51.59884403751327, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 51.59884403751327, "required_final_county_share_points": 51.56497960945651, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.10597932088248406, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -1.2266534360409764, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.020108436638195008, "criticality_score": 0.016392924070791324, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 159.18527708069294, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 254.51055688395044, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 304.33876976197996, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Mallory McMorrow": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 4.294000266109956, "expected_final_county_share_points": 4.3650547647284865, "current_county_share_points": 4.760830324909747, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 34.25681460170472, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 34.25681460170472, "required_final_county_share_points": 29.767338539610478, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 34.25681460170472, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 2256.090180008168, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 34.25681460170472, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 34.25681460170472, "required_final_county_share_points": 29.767338539610478, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 34.25681460170472, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 34.854017700893344, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 34.854017700893344, "required_final_county_share_points": 30.273643535760552, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.159018308558073, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999906, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 35.44850819991381, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 35.44850819991381, "required_final_county_share_points": 30.777648806708978, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.213613509684069, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.999999999999993, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -29.962814335594764, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "WELL BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.020108436638195008, "criticality_score": 0.0006711130807998531, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 114.40873126065473, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 209.73401106391222, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 259.56222394194174, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } } } }, { "cid": "fips:26017", "county": "Bay", "fips": "26017", "reporting": 5.77, "current_votes": 926, "current_candidate_votes": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 448, "Haley Stevens": 432, "Mallory McMorrow": 46 }, "current_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 48.38012958963283, "Haley Stevens": 46.652267818574515, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.967602591792657 }, "estimated_remaining_votes": 15508.356874900292, "estimated_final_votes": 16434.35687490029, "turnout_disagreement_votes": 0.0, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 48.94823120464311, "Haley Stevens": 46.78114167917028, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.2706271161866125 }, "remaining_sources": [ { "model": "v3", "remaining_votes": 15508.356874900292, "weight": 0.1342208488636769 }, { "model": "histgeo", "remaining_votes": 15508.356874900292, "weight": 0.05994207394479305 }, { "model": "latent", "remaining_votes": 15508.356874900292, "weight": 0.07672787409296966 }, { "model": "batchbias", "remaining_votes": 15508.356874900292, "weight": 0.045123489075924846 } ], "share_sources": [ { "model": "v0", "weight": 0.03630604611298715, "source": "statewide raw" }, { "model": "v1", "weight": 0.14599140026529184, "source": "county live" }, { "model": "v3", "weight": 0.15004242351696637, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "market", "weight": 0.0786646379365536, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "histgeo", "weight": 0.06573339512824654, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "latent", "weight": 0.08483492578364633, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "batchbias", "weight": 0.04883898267529022, "source": "county remaining" } ], "candidate_benchmarks": { "Abdul El-Sayed": { "opponent": "Haley Stevens", "expected_remaining_share_points": 48.94823120464311, "expected_final_county_share_points": 48.916221306141814, "current_county_share_points": 48.38012958963283, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 47.7195972929087, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 47.7195972929087, "required_final_county_share_points": 47.756815232827044, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 47.7195972929087, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": -99.9250973260551, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": false }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 47.7195972929087, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 47.7195972929087, "required_final_county_share_points": 47.756815232827044, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 47.7195972929087, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.3729602760429, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.3729602760429, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.37336423370518, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.024044322225107804, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999973, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 49.026200436303476, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 49.026200436303476, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.98979733221056, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.003259695682198218, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.9999999999999996, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": 1.2286339117344056, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "ABOVE", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.01263243140422051, "criticality_score": 0.010281688697968536, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -126.33355108122093, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 25.406227873889396, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 25.406227873889396, "feasible": true, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 104.72329910038265, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Haley Stevens": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 46.78114167917028, "expected_final_county_share_points": 46.773880233175156, "current_county_share_points": 46.652267818574515, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.00977559090469, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.00977559090469, "required_final_county_share_points": 47.93328630648994, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 48.00977559090469, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 195.6544702098685, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.00977559090469, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.00977559090469, "required_final_county_share_points": 47.93328630648994, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 48.00977559090469, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.66325495001475, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.66325495001475, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.54994512609595, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.07865391656842785, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.999999999999999, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 49.31684422207041, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 49.31684422207041, "required_final_county_share_points": 49.16670766556143, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.10597932088248406, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -1.2286339117344056, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.01263243140422051, "criticality_score": 0.010281688697968536, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 222.06292396503432, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 373.8027029201446, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 453.1197741466379, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Mallory McMorrow": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 4.2706271161866125, "expected_final_county_share_points": 4.309898460683025, "current_county_share_points": 4.967602591792657, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 35.159803189352836, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 35.159803189352836, "required_final_county_share_points": 33.45861232644538, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 35.159803189352836, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 3588.703374349994, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 35.159803189352836, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 35.159803189352836, "required_final_county_share_points": 33.45861232644538, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 35.159803189352836, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 35.79556220568631, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 35.79556220568631, "required_final_county_share_points": 34.058549262632596, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.159018308558073, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999906, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 36.42923939774374, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 36.42923939774374, "required_final_county_share_points": 34.65652167571317, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.213613509684069, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.999999999999993, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -30.889176073166222, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "WELL BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.01263243140422051, "criticality_score": 0.00040895980437608524, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 179.55240940205064, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 331.29218835716097, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 410.60925958365425, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } } } }, { "cid": "26017", "county": "26017", "fips": null, "reporting": 0.0, "current_votes": 0, "current_candidate_votes": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 0, "Haley Stevens": 0, "Mallory McMorrow": 0 }, "current_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": null, "Haley Stevens": null, "Mallory McMorrow": null }, "estimated_remaining_votes": 15508.356874900292, "estimated_final_votes": 15508.356874900292, "turnout_disagreement_votes": 0.0, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 48.09081675932247, "Haley Stevens": 47.77542810416066, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.133755136516871 }, "remaining_sources": [ { "model": "market", "remaining_votes": 15508.356874900292, "weight": 0.1780093144963334 } ], "share_sources": [ { "model": "v0", "weight": 0.03630604611298715, "source": "statewide raw" }, { "model": "v3", "weight": 0.06301781787712588, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "market", "weight": 0.18729675699179427, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "histgeo", "weight": 0.02760802595386354, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "latent", "weight": 0.03563066882913146, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "batchbias", "weight": 0.020512372723621893, "source": "statewide fallback" } ], "candidate_benchmarks": { "Abdul El-Sayed": { "opponent": "Haley Stevens", "expected_remaining_share_points": 48.09081675932247, "expected_final_county_share_points": 48.090816759322465, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 46.86042001365787, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 46.86042001365787, "required_final_county_share_points": 46.86042001365787, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 46.86042001365787, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": -100.78251177137562, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": false }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 46.86042001365787, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 46.86042001365787, "required_final_county_share_points": 46.86042001365787, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 46.86042001365787, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 47.51456824629479, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 47.51456824629479, "required_final_county_share_points": 47.51456824629479, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.024044322225107804, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999973, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.168939121809295, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.168939121809295, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.168939121809295, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.003259695682198218, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.9999999999999996, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": 1.2303967456645992, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "ABOVE", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.01263243140422051, "criticality_score": 0.01026695775060515, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -127.19096552654156, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 24.54881342856876, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 24.54881342856876, "feasible": true, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 103.86588465506202, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Haley Stevens": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 47.77542810416066, "expected_final_county_share_points": 47.77542810416066, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 49.005824849825245, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 49.005824849825245, "required_final_county_share_points": 49.005824849825245, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 49.005824849825245, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 196.64875663485876, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 49.005824849825245, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 49.005824849825245, "required_final_county_share_points": 49.005824849825245, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 49.005824849825245, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 49.6597440690023, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 49.6597440690023, "required_final_county_share_points": 49.6597440690023, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.07865391656842785, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.999999999999999, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 50.313427901612286, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 50.313427901612286, "required_final_county_share_points": 50.313427901612286, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.10597932088248406, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -1.230396745664585, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.01263243140422051, "criticality_score": 0.010266957750605269, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 223.0572103900247, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 374.796989345135, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 454.1140605716283, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Mallory McMorrow": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 4.133755136516871, "expected_final_county_share_points": 4.133755136516871, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 34.328019054981205, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 34.328019054981205, "required_final_county_share_points": 34.328019054981205, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 34.328019054981205, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 3588.566502370324, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 34.328019054981205, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 34.328019054981205, "required_final_county_share_points": 34.328019054981205, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 34.328019054981205, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 34.9549754989393, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 34.9549754989393, "required_final_county_share_points": 34.95497549893929, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.159018308558073, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999906, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 35.58010168604368, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 35.58010168604368, "required_final_county_share_points": 35.58010168604368, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.213613509684069, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.999999999999993, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -30.194263918464333, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "WELL BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.01263243140422051, "criticality_score": 0.00041837189468611465, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 179.4155374223809, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 331.1553163774912, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 410.4723876039845, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } } } }, { "cid": "26075", "county": "26075", "fips": null, "reporting": 0.0, "current_votes": 0, "current_candidate_votes": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 0, "Haley Stevens": 0, "Mallory McMorrow": 0 }, "current_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": null, "Haley Stevens": null, "Mallory McMorrow": null }, "estimated_remaining_votes": 15316.60702633344, "estimated_final_votes": 15316.60702633344, "turnout_disagreement_votes": 0.0, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 50.606605283895725, "Haley Stevens": 45.36304140959665, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.030353306507629 }, "remaining_sources": [ { "model": "market", "remaining_votes": 15316.60702633344, "weight": 0.1780093144963334 } ], "share_sources": [ { "model": "v0", "weight": 0.03630604611298715, "source": "statewide raw" }, { "model": "v3", "weight": 0.06301781787712588, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "market", "weight": 0.18729675699179427, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "histgeo", "weight": 0.02760802595386354, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "latent", "weight": 0.03563066882913146, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "batchbias", "weight": 0.020512372723621893, "source": "statewide fallback" } ], "candidate_benchmarks": { "Abdul El-Sayed": { "opponent": "Haley Stevens", "expected_remaining_share_points": 50.606605283895725, "expected_final_county_share_points": 50.606605283895725, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 49.376924379193724, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 49.376924379193724, "required_final_county_share_points": 49.376924379193724, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 49.376924379193724, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": -100.13048054973008, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": false }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 49.376924379193724, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 49.376924379193724, "required_final_county_share_points": 49.376924379193724, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 49.376924379193724, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 50.03109585494552, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 50.03109585494552, "required_final_county_share_points": 50.03109585494552, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.024044322225107804, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999973, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 50.68457275969681, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 50.68457275969681, "required_final_county_share_points": 50.68457275969681, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.003259695682198218, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.9999999999999996, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": 1.2296809047020005, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "ABOVE", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.01247624033715068, "criticality_score": 0.010145916952474885, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -126.86954388440233, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 26.76987769953472, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 26.76987769953472, "feasible": true, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 107.07992578900406, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Haley Stevens": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 45.36304140959665, "expected_final_county_share_points": 45.36304140959665, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 46.592722314298655, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 46.592722314298655, "required_final_county_share_points": 46.592722314298655, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 46.592722314298655, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 196.10012724322246, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 46.592722314298655, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 46.592722314298655, "required_final_county_share_points": 46.592722314298655, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 46.592722314298655, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 47.24758297092966, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 47.24758297092966, "required_final_county_share_points": 47.24758297092966, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.07865391656842785, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.999999999999999, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 47.90312738170466, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 47.90312738170466, "required_final_county_share_points": 47.90312738170466, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.10597932088248406, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -1.2296809047020076, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.01247624033715068, "criticality_score": 0.010145916952474826, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 222.83919057789473, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 376.47861216183173, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 456.7886602513011, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Mallory McMorrow": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 4.030353306507629, "expected_final_county_share_points": 4.030353306507629, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 34.96345619028115, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 34.96345619028115, "required_final_county_share_points": 34.96345619028115, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 34.96345619028115, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 3633.3369055088992, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 34.96345619028115, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 34.96345619028115, "required_final_county_share_points": 34.96345619028115, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 34.96345619028115, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 35.63504956600276, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 35.63504956600276, "required_final_county_share_points": 35.63504956600276, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.159018308558073, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999906, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 36.305924281425874, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 36.305924281425874, "required_final_county_share_points": 36.305924281425874, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.213613509684069, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.999999999999993, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -30.933102883773522, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "WELL BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.01247624033715068, "criticality_score": 0.00040332973979455847, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 181.5065024748057, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 335.1459240587427, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 415.4559721482121, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } } } }, { "cid": "fips:26075", "county": "Jackson", "fips": "26075", "reporting": 3.46, "current_votes": 581, "current_candidate_votes": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 254, "Haley Stevens": 302, "Mallory McMorrow": 25 }, "current_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 43.71772805507745, "Haley Stevens": 51.97934595524957, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.3029259896729775 }, "estimated_remaining_votes": 15316.60702633344, "estimated_final_votes": 15897.60702633344, "turnout_disagreement_votes": 0.0, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 47.36537022909766, "Haley Stevens": 48.62499020594374, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.009639564958597 }, "remaining_sources": [ { "model": "v3", "remaining_votes": 15316.60702633344, "weight": 0.1342208488636769 }, { "model": "histgeo", "remaining_votes": 15316.60702633344, "weight": 0.05994207394479305 }, { "model": "latent", "remaining_votes": 15316.60702633344, "weight": 0.07672787409296966 }, { "model": "batchbias", "remaining_votes": 15316.60702633344, "weight": 0.045123489075924846 } ], "share_sources": [ { "model": "v0", "weight": 0.03630604611298715, "source": "statewide raw" }, { "model": "v1", "weight": 0.14599140026529184, "source": "county live" }, { "model": "v3", "weight": 0.15004242351696637, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "market", "weight": 0.0786646379365536, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "histgeo", "weight": 0.06573339512824654, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "latent", "weight": 0.08483492578364633, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "batchbias", "weight": 0.04883898267529022, "source": "county remaining" } ], "candidate_benchmarks": { "Abdul El-Sayed": { "opponent": "Haley Stevens", "expected_remaining_share_points": 47.36537022909766, "expected_final_county_share_points": 47.232062109228096, "current_county_share_points": 43.71772805507745, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 46.134098056014075, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 46.134098056014075, "required_final_county_share_points": 46.04578847783551, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 46.134098056014075, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": -103.3717156045284, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": false }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 46.134098056014075, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 46.134098056014075, "required_final_county_share_points": 46.04578847783551, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 46.134098056014075, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 46.78858257956388, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 46.78858257956388, "required_final_county_share_points": 46.676353960767905, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.024044322225107804, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999973, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 47.44358320345049, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 47.44358320345049, "required_final_county_share_points": 47.30741668243767, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.003259695682198218, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.9999999999999996, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": 1.2312721730835818, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "ABOVE", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.01247624033715068, "criticality_score": 0.010132804598276065, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -130.1107789392004, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 23.528642644736653, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 23.528642644736653, "feasible": true, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 103.838690734206, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Haley Stevens": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 48.62499020594374, "expected_final_county_share_points": 48.74757976845579, "current_county_share_points": 51.97934595524957, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 49.856262379027314, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 49.856262379027314, "required_final_county_share_points": 49.933853399848374, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 49.856262379027314, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 199.36207603956979, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 49.856262379027314, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 49.856262379027314, "required_final_county_share_points": 49.933853399848374, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 49.856262379027314, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 50.51022492881373, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 50.51022492881373, "required_final_county_share_points": 50.56391598526929, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.07865391656842785, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.999999999999999, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 51.163659639601335, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 51.163659639601335, "required_final_county_share_points": 51.19347002229645, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.10597932088248406, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -1.2312721730835747, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.01247624033715068, "criticality_score": 0.010132804598276124, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 226.1011393742418, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 379.74056095817883, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 460.0506090476482, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Mallory McMorrow": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 4.009639564958597, "expected_final_county_share_points": 4.020358122316116, "current_county_share_points": 4.3029259896729775, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 33.592282874341414, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 33.592282874341414, "required_final_county_share_points": 32.52186288460305, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 33.592282874341414, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 3633.3161917673506, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 33.592282874341414, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 33.592282874341414, "required_final_county_share_points": 32.52186288460305, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 33.592282874341414, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 34.21209487299835, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 34.21209487299835, "required_final_county_share_points": 33.11902299794019, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.159018308558073, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999906, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 34.830324568074964, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 34.830324568074964, "required_final_county_share_points": 33.71465863516618, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.213613509684069, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.999999999999993, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -29.582643309382817, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "WELL BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.01247624033715068, "criticality_score": 0.0004217419047605375, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 181.48578873325667, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 335.1252103171937, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 415.4352584066631, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } } } }, { "cid": "fips:26021", "county": "Berrien", "fips": "26021", "reporting": 9.46, "current_votes": 1294, "current_candidate_votes": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 756, "Haley Stevens": 463, "Mallory McMorrow": 75 }, "current_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 58.42349304482226, "Haley Stevens": 35.7805255023184, "Mallory McMorrow": 5.795981452859351 }, "estimated_remaining_votes": 15056.65577827919, "estimated_final_votes": 16350.65577827919, "turnout_disagreement_votes": 0.0, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 53.085371165674864, "Haley Stevens": 42.26469102741573, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.649937806909396 }, "remaining_sources": [ { "model": "v3", "remaining_votes": 15056.65577827919, "weight": 0.1342208488636769 }, { "model": "histgeo", "remaining_votes": 15056.65577827919, "weight": 0.05994207394479305 }, { "model": "latent", "remaining_votes": 15056.65577827919, "weight": 0.07672787409296966 }, { "model": "batchbias", "remaining_votes": 15056.65577827919, "weight": 0.045123489075924846 } ], "share_sources": [ { "model": "v0", "weight": 0.03630604611298715, "source": "statewide raw" }, { "model": "v1", "weight": 0.14599140026529184, "source": "county live" }, { "model": "v3", "weight": 0.15004242351696637, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "market", "weight": 0.0786646379365536, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "histgeo", "weight": 0.06573339512824654, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "latent", "weight": 0.08483492578364633, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "batchbias", "weight": 0.04883898267529022, "source": "county remaining" } ], "candidate_benchmarks": { "Abdul El-Sayed": { "opponent": "Haley Stevens", "expected_remaining_share_points": 53.085371165674864, "expected_final_county_share_points": 53.507833102693496, "current_county_share_points": 58.42349304482226, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 51.87392000209867, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 51.87392000209867, "required_final_county_share_points": 52.39225685856549, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 51.87392000209867, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": -100.25417129361414, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": false }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 51.87392000209867, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 51.87392000209867, "required_final_county_share_points": 52.39225685856549, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 51.87392000209867, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 52.5188500712964, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 52.5188500712964, "required_final_county_share_points": 52.986146803082065, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.024044322225107804, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999973, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 53.162059256950315, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 53.162059256950315, "required_final_county_share_points": 53.57845205573645, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.003259695682198218, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.9999999999999996, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": 1.2114511635761929, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "ABOVE", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.012264495383383103, "criticality_score": 0.010123805029976136, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -127.45488115776845, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 28.837105509624475, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 28.837105509624475, "feasible": true, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 110.53369637058172, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Haley Stevens": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 42.26469102741573, "expected_final_county_share_points": 41.7515305583034, "current_county_share_points": 35.7805255023184, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 43.476142190991936, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 43.476142190991936, "required_final_county_share_points": 42.867106802431415, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 43.476142190991936, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 195.60423348670471, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 43.476142190991936, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 43.476142190991936, "required_final_county_share_points": 42.867106802431415, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 43.476142190991936, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 44.12279363742372, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 44.12279363742372, "required_final_county_share_points": 43.46258189342953, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.07865391656842785, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.999999999999999, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 44.771166911734745, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 44.771166911734745, "required_final_county_share_points": 44.059642545890064, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.10597932088248406, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -1.211451163576207, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.012264495383383103, "criticality_score": 0.010123805029976016, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 222.80494335085905, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 379.09693001825195, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 460.79352087920927, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Mallory McMorrow": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 4.649937806909396, "expected_final_county_share_points": 4.740636339003092, "current_county_share_points": 5.795981452859351, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 38.19482019241035, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 38.19482019241035, "required_final_county_share_points": 35.63075805952192, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 38.19482019241035, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 3696.616006286317, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 38.19482019241035, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 38.19482019241035, "required_final_county_share_points": 35.63075805952192, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 38.19482019241035, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 38.88362237610174, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 38.88362237610174, "required_final_county_share_points": 36.26504805496943, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.159018308558073, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999906, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 39.57010432212596, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 39.57010432212596, "required_final_county_share_points": 36.89720143765031, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.213613509684069, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.999999999999993, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -33.544882385500955, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "WELL BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.012264495383383103, "criticality_score": 0.0003656144994768014, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 185.19019013035273, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 341.48217679774564, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 423.17876765870295, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } } } }, { "cid": "26021", "county": "26021", "fips": null, "reporting": 0.0, "current_votes": 0, "current_candidate_votes": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 0, "Haley Stevens": 0, "Mallory McMorrow": 0 }, "current_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": null, "Haley Stevens": null, "Mallory McMorrow": null }, "estimated_remaining_votes": 15056.655778279188, "estimated_final_votes": 15056.655778279188, "turnout_disagreement_votes": 1.8189894035458565e-12, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 50.64093249871947, "Haley Stevens": 44.4879633172606, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.871104184019935 }, "remaining_sources": [ { "model": "market", "remaining_votes": 15056.65577827919, "weight": 0.1780093144963334 } ], "share_sources": [ { "model": "v0", "weight": 0.03630604611298715, "source": "statewide raw" }, { "model": "v3", "weight": 0.06301781787712588, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "market", "weight": 0.18729675699179427, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "histgeo", "weight": 0.02760802595386354, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "latent", "weight": 0.03563066882913146, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "batchbias", "weight": 0.020512372723621893, "source": "statewide fallback" } ], "candidate_benchmarks": { "Abdul El-Sayed": { "opponent": "Haley Stevens", "expected_remaining_share_points": 50.64093249871947, "expected_final_county_share_points": 50.64093249871947, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 49.4231749376425, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 49.4231749376425, "required_final_county_share_points": 49.4231749376425, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 49.4231749376425, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": -102.69860996056961, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": false }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 49.4231749376425, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 49.4231749376425, "required_final_county_share_points": 49.4231749376425, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 49.4231749376425, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 50.071081648442714, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 50.071081648442714, "required_final_county_share_points": 50.071081648442714, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.024044322225107804, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999973, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 50.71812278550689, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 50.71812278550689, "required_final_county_share_points": 50.71812278550689, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.003259695682198218, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.9999999999999996, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": 1.2177575610769722, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "ABOVE", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.012264495383383103, "criticality_score": 0.010071376910636063, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -129.89931982472385, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 26.392666842669083, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 26.392666842669083, "feasible": true, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 108.08925770362633, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Haley Stevens": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 44.4879633172606, "expected_final_county_share_points": 44.48796331726059, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 45.705720878337566, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 45.705720878337566, "required_final_county_share_points": 45.705720878337566, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 45.705720878337566, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 197.82750577654969, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 45.705720878337566, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 45.705720878337566, "required_final_county_share_points": 45.705720878337566, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 45.705720878337566, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 46.35448846239838, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 46.35448846239838, "required_final_county_share_points": 46.35448846239838, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.07865391656842785, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.999999999999999, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 47.00411217818334, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 47.00411217818334, "required_final_county_share_points": 47.00411217818334, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.10597932088248406, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -1.217757561076965, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.012264495383383103, "criticality_score": 0.010071376910636122, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 225.02821564070393, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 381.32020230809684, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 463.01679316905415, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Mallory McMorrow": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 4.871104184019935, "expected_final_county_share_points": 4.871104184019935, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 37.86933215353064, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 37.86933215353064, "required_final_county_share_points": 37.86933215353064, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 37.86933215353064, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 3696.8371726634273, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 37.86933215353064, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 37.86933215353064, "required_final_county_share_points": 37.86933215353064, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 37.86933215353064, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 38.50992868634179, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 38.50992868634179, "required_final_county_share_points": 38.50992868634179, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.159018308558073, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999906, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 39.146969063228, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 39.146969063228, "required_final_county_share_points": 39.14696906322799, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.213613509684069, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.999999999999993, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -32.99822796951071, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "WELL BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.012264495383383103, "criticality_score": 0.0003716713332217445, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 185.41135650746327, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 341.7033431748562, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 423.3999340358135, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } } } }, { "cid": "26139", "county": "26139", "fips": null, "reporting": 0.0, "current_votes": 0, "current_candidate_votes": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 0, "Haley Stevens": 0, "Mallory McMorrow": 0 }, "current_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": null, "Haley Stevens": null, "Mallory McMorrow": null }, "estimated_remaining_votes": 14785.060276468925, "estimated_final_votes": 14785.060276468925, "turnout_disagreement_votes": 0.0, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 51.474063544729454, "Haley Stevens": 44.494875217609255, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.031061237661287 }, "remaining_sources": [ { "model": "market", "remaining_votes": 14785.060276468925, "weight": 0.1780093144963334 } ], "share_sources": [ { "model": "v0", "weight": 0.03630604611298715, "source": "statewide raw" }, { "model": "v3", "weight": 0.06301781787712588, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "market", "weight": 0.18729675699179427, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "histgeo", "weight": 0.02760802595386354, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "latent", "weight": 0.03563066882913146, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "batchbias", "weight": 0.020512372723621893, "source": "statewide fallback" } ], "candidate_benchmarks": { "Abdul El-Sayed": { "opponent": "Haley Stevens", "expected_remaining_share_points": 51.474063544729454, "expected_final_county_share_points": 51.474063544729454, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 50.2466620638926, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 50.2466620638926, "required_final_county_share_points": 50.2466620638926, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 50.2466620638926, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": -104.68226350676511, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": false }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 50.2466620638926, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 50.2466620638926, "required_final_county_share_points": 50.2466620638926, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 50.2466620638926, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 50.89976301044866, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 50.89976301044866, "required_final_county_share_points": 50.89976301044866, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.024044322225107804, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999973, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 51.55184802510339, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 51.55184802510339, "required_final_county_share_points": 51.55184802510339, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.003259695682198218, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.9999999999999996, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": 1.2274014808368534, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "ABOVE", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.012043265528151579, "criticality_score": 0.009812001790922047, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -132.38263927061865, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 26.780367179859766, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 26.780367179859766, "feasible": true, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 109.977690954729, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Haley Stevens": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 44.494875217609255, "expected_final_county_share_points": 44.49487521760926, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 45.72227669844611, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 45.72227669844611, "required_final_county_share_points": 45.72227669844611, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 45.72227669844611, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 200.65120226910383, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 45.72227669844611, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 45.72227669844611, "required_final_county_share_points": 45.72227669844611, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 45.72227669844611, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 46.3763894606778, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 46.3763894606778, "required_final_county_share_points": 46.3763894606778, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.07865391656842785, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.999999999999999, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 47.03150987793309, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 47.03150987793309, "required_final_county_share_points": 47.03150987793309, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.10597932088248406, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -1.2274014808368534, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.012043265528151579, "criticality_score": 0.009812001790922047, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 228.35157803295738, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 387.5145844834358, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 470.7119082583051, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Mallory McMorrow": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 4.031061237661287, "expected_final_county_share_points": 4.031061237661287, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 35.30338873457184, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 35.30338873457184, "required_final_county_share_points": 35.30338873457184, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 35.30338873457184, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 3763.8170342886447, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 35.30338873457184, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 35.30338873457184, "required_final_county_share_points": 35.30338873457184, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 35.30338873457184, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 35.98896992775103, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 35.98896992775103, "required_final_county_share_points": 35.98896992775103, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.159018308558073, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999906, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 36.674101309651924, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 36.674101309651924, "required_final_county_share_points": 36.674101309651924, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.213613509684069, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.999999999999993, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -31.272327496910552, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "WELL BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.012043265528151579, "criticality_score": 0.0003851093440148116, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 187.8877640530094, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 347.0507705034878, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 430.2480942783571, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } } } }, { "cid": "fips:26139", "county": "Ottawa", "fips": "26139", "reporting": 38.53, "current_votes": 9627, "current_candidate_votes": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 5161, "Haley Stevens": 4028, "Mallory McMorrow": 438 }, "current_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 53.609639555417054, "Haley Stevens": 41.840656486963745, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.5497039576191955 }, "estimated_remaining_votes": 14785.060276468925, "estimated_final_votes": 24412.060276468925, "turnout_disagreement_votes": 0.0, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 51.92798716506366, "Haley Stevens": 43.837043408724, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.234969426212333 }, "remaining_sources": [ { "model": "v3", "remaining_votes": 14785.060276468925, "weight": 0.1342208488636769 }, { "model": "histgeo", "remaining_votes": 14785.060276468925, "weight": 0.05994207394479305 }, { "model": "latent", "remaining_votes": 14785.060276468925, "weight": 0.07672787409296966 }, { "model": "batchbias", "remaining_votes": 14785.060276468925, "weight": 0.045123489075924846 } ], "share_sources": [ { "model": "v0", "weight": 0.03630604611298715, "source": "statewide raw" }, { "model": "v1", "weight": 0.14599140026529184, "source": "county live" }, { "model": "v3", "weight": 0.15004242351696637, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "market", "weight": 0.0786646379365536, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "histgeo", "weight": 0.06573339512824654, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "latent", "weight": 0.08483492578364633, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "batchbias", "weight": 0.04883898267529022, "source": "county remaining" } ], "candidate_benchmarks": { "Abdul El-Sayed": { "opponent": "Haley Stevens", "expected_remaining_share_points": 51.92798716506366, "expected_final_county_share_points": 52.591153951422, "current_county_share_points": 53.609639555417054, "recent_batch_votes": 1248, "recent_batch_share_points": 53.766025641025635, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 50.70510086282513, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 50.70510086282513, "required_final_county_share_points": 51.8505180737, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 50.70510086282513, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": -104.22833988643102, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": false }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 50.70510086282513, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 50.70510086282513, "required_final_county_share_points": 51.8505180737, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 50.70510086282513, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 51.35589139750238, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 51.35589139750238, "required_final_county_share_points": 52.244666587737285, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.024044322225107804, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999973, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 52.00546057406791, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 52.00546057406791, "required_final_county_share_points": 52.63807539143891, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.003259695682198218, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.9999999999999996, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": 1.2228863022385354, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": 3.0609247782005085, "status": "ABOVE", "recent_status": "WELL ABOVE", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.012043265528151579, "criticality_score": 0.009848229967173536, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -131.92871565028446, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 27.234290800193975, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 27.234290800193975, "feasible": true, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 110.43161457506321, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Haley Stevens": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 43.837043408724, "expected_final_county_share_points": 43.049759718690204, "current_county_share_points": 41.840656486963745, "recent_batch_votes": 1248, "recent_batch_share_points": 42.78846153846153, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 45.059929710962535, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 45.059929710962535, "required_final_county_share_points": 43.79039559641221, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 45.059929710962535, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 199.99337046021864, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 45.059929710962535, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 45.059929710962535, "required_final_county_share_points": 43.79039559641221, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 45.059929710962535, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 45.711938579264114, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 45.711938579264114, "required_final_county_share_points": 44.18528198901722, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.07865391656842785, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.999999999999999, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 46.36516270962666, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 46.36516270962666, "required_final_county_share_points": 44.58090439991073, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.10597932088248406, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -1.2228863022385354, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -2.2714681725010024, "status": "BELOW", "recent_status": "BELOW", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.012043265528151579, "criticality_score": 0.009848229967173536, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 227.69374622407213, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 386.85675267455053, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 470.0540764494198, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Mallory McMorrow": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 4.234969426212333, "expected_final_county_share_points": 4.359086329887787, "current_county_share_points": 4.5497039576191955, "recent_batch_votes": 1248, "recent_batch_share_points": 3.4455128205128207, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 36.24624986729695, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 36.24624986729695, "required_final_county_share_points": 23.746581915608402, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 36.24624986729695, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 3764.020942477195, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 36.24624986729695, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 36.24624986729695, "required_final_county_share_points": 23.746581915608402, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 36.24624986729695, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 36.93173999641782, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 36.93173999641782, "required_final_county_share_points": 24.161746091151002, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.159018308558073, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999906, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 37.61609863788673, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 37.61609863788673, "required_final_county_share_points": 24.57622498601894, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.213613509684069, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.999999999999993, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -32.01128044108462, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -32.800737046784135, "status": "WELL BELOW", "recent_status": "WELL BELOW", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.012043265528151579, "criticality_score": 0.0003762194252215774, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 188.09167224156045, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 347.25467869203885, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 430.45200246690814, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } } } }, { "cid": "fips:26103", "county": "Marquette", "fips": "26103", "reporting": 0.0, "current_votes": 0, "current_candidate_votes": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 0, "Haley Stevens": 0, "Mallory McMorrow": 0 }, "current_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": null, "Haley Stevens": null, "Mallory McMorrow": null }, "estimated_remaining_votes": 13575.142700457824, "estimated_final_votes": 13575.142700457824, "turnout_disagreement_votes": 0.0, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 49.479015620196144, "Haley Stevens": 46.68774275125065, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.8332416285532016 }, "remaining_sources": [ { "model": "v3", "remaining_votes": 13575.142700457824, "weight": 0.1342208488636769 }, { "model": "histgeo", "remaining_votes": 13575.142700457824, "weight": 0.05994207394479305 }, { "model": "latent", "remaining_votes": 13575.142700457824, "weight": 0.07672787409296966 }, { "model": "batchbias", "remaining_votes": 13575.142700457824, "weight": 0.045123489075924846 } ], "share_sources": [ { "model": "v0", "weight": 0.03630604611298715, "source": "statewide raw" }, { "model": "v3", "weight": 0.15004242351696637, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "market", "weight": 0.0786646379365536, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "histgeo", "weight": 0.06573339512824654, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "latent", "weight": 0.08483492578364633, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "batchbias", "weight": 0.04883898267529022, "source": "county remaining" } ], "candidate_benchmarks": { "Abdul El-Sayed": { "opponent": "Haley Stevens", "expected_remaining_share_points": 49.479015620196144, "expected_final_county_share_points": 49.479015620196144, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.24497318150285, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.24497318150285, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.24497318150285, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 48.24497318150285, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": -120.59512348483716, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": false }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.24497318150285, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.24497318150285, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.24497318150285, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 48.24497318150285, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.90126272144794, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.90126272144794, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.90126272144794, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.024044322225107804, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999973, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 49.55731441533497, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 49.55731441533497, "required_final_county_share_points": 49.55731441533497, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.003259695682198218, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.9999999999999996, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": 1.2340424386932938, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "ABOVE", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.011057719418591907, "criticality_score": 0.008960566567143943, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -150.76436254083634, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 22.584433569791113, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 22.584433569791113, "feasible": true, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 113.19692096639565, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Haley Stevens": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 46.68774275125065, "expected_final_county_share_points": 46.687742751250646, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 47.921785189943954, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 47.921785189943954, "required_final_county_share_points": 47.921785189943954, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 47.921785189943954, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 216.761881856284, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 47.921785189943954, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 47.921785189943954, "required_final_county_share_points": 47.921785189943954, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 47.921785189943954, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.578306193036404, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.578306193036404, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.57830619303641, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.07865391656842785, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.999999999999999, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 49.23505225568606, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 49.23505225568606, "required_final_county_share_points": 49.23505225568606, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.10597932088248406, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -1.2340424386933009, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.011057719418591907, "criticality_score": 0.00896056656714389, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 246.93112091228315, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 420.2799170229105, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 510.8924044195151, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Mallory McMorrow": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 3.8332416285532016, "expected_final_county_share_points": 3.8332416285532016, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 33.77528908679408, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 33.77528908679408, "required_final_county_share_points": 33.77528908679408, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 33.77528908679408, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 4098.719274488188, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 33.77528908679408, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 33.77528908679408, "required_final_county_share_points": 33.77528908679408, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 33.77528908679408, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 34.435790924195956, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 34.435790924195956, "required_final_county_share_points": 34.435790924195956, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.159018308558073, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999906, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 35.09603558266566, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 35.09603558266566, "required_final_county_share_points": 35.09603558266566, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.213613509684069, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.999999999999993, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -29.94204745824088, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "WELL BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.011057719418591907, "criticality_score": 0.0003693040509007849, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 204.0766197895857, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 377.42541590021307, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 468.03790329681766, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } } } }, { "cid": "26103", "county": "26103", "fips": null, "reporting": 0.0, "current_votes": 0, "current_candidate_votes": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 0, "Haley Stevens": 0, "Mallory McMorrow": 0 }, "current_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": null, "Haley Stevens": null, "Mallory McMorrow": null }, "estimated_remaining_votes": 13575.142700457824, "estimated_final_votes": 13575.142700457824, "turnout_disagreement_votes": 0.0, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 48.973903537573875, "Haley Stevens": 46.149745434179586, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.8763510282465425 }, "remaining_sources": [ { "model": "market", "remaining_votes": 13575.142700457824, "weight": 0.1780093144963334 } ], "share_sources": [ { "model": "v0", "weight": 0.03630604611298715, "source": "statewide raw" }, { "model": "v3", "weight": 0.06301781787712588, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "market", "weight": 0.18729675699179427, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "histgeo", "weight": 0.02760802595386354, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "latent", "weight": 0.03563066882913146, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "batchbias", "weight": 0.020512372723621893, "source": "statewide fallback" } ], "candidate_benchmarks": { "Abdul El-Sayed": { "opponent": "Haley Stevens", "expected_remaining_share_points": 48.973903537573875, "expected_final_county_share_points": 48.973903537573875, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 47.75327342108671, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 47.75327342108671, "required_final_county_share_points": 47.75327342108671, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 47.75327342108671, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": -121.10023556745905, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": false }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 47.75327342108671, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 47.75327342108671, "required_final_county_share_points": 47.75327342108671, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 47.75327342108671, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.402435191598066, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.402435191598066, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.402435191598066, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.024044322225107804, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999973, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 49.05134992915548, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 49.05134992915548, "required_final_county_share_points": 49.05134992915548, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.003259695682198218, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.9999999999999996, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": 1.2206301164871647, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "ABOVE", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.011057719418591907, "criticality_score": 0.009059025555108185, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -151.26947462345862, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 22.079321487168844, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 22.079321487168844, "feasible": true, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 112.69180888377338, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Haley Stevens": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 46.149745434179586, "expected_final_county_share_points": 46.149745434179586, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 47.37037555066674, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 47.37037555066674, "required_final_county_share_points": 47.37037555066674, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 47.37037555066674, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 216.22388453921252, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 47.37037555066674, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 47.37037555066674, "required_final_county_share_points": 47.37037555066674, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 47.37037555066674, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.01977805349677, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.01977805349677, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.01977805349677, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.07865391656842785, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.999999999999999, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.6694149671013, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.6694149671013, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.6694149671013, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.10597932088248406, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -1.2206301164871576, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.011057719418591907, "criticality_score": 0.009059025555108239, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 246.39312359521207, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 419.74191970583945, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 510.35440710244404, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Mallory McMorrow": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 4.8763510282465425, "expected_final_county_share_points": 4.8763510282465425, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 37.136501345834354, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 37.136501345834354, "required_final_county_share_points": 37.136501345834354, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 37.136501345834354, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 4099.76238388788, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 37.136501345834354, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 37.136501345834354, "required_final_county_share_points": 37.136501345834354, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 37.136501345834354, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 37.749746513256014, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 37.749746513256014, "required_final_county_share_points": 37.749746513256014, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.159018308558073, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999906, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 38.359105897231565, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 38.359105897231565, "required_final_county_share_points": 38.359105897231565, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.213613509684069, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.999999999999993, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -32.260150317587815, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "WELL BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.011057719418591907, "criticality_score": 0.0003427671387062131, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 205.11972918927904, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 378.4685252999064, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 469.081012696511, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } } } }, { "cid": "26115", "county": "26115", "fips": null, "reporting": 0.0, "current_votes": 0, "current_candidate_votes": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 0, "Haley Stevens": 0, "Mallory McMorrow": 0 }, "current_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": null, "Haley Stevens": null, "Mallory McMorrow": null }, "estimated_remaining_votes": 13427.800539038479, "estimated_final_votes": 13427.800539038479, "turnout_disagreement_votes": 0.0, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 48.024175588881675, "Haley Stevens": 48.025137223368944, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.9506871877493968 }, "remaining_sources": [ { "model": "market", "remaining_votes": 13427.800539038479, "weight": 0.1780093144963334 } ], "share_sources": [ { "model": "v0", "weight": 0.03630604611298715, "source": "statewide raw" }, { "model": "v3", "weight": 0.06301781787712588, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "market", "weight": 0.18729675699179427, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "histgeo", "weight": 0.02760802595386354, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "latent", "weight": 0.03563066882913146, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "batchbias", "weight": 0.020512372723621893, "source": "statewide fallback" } ], "candidate_benchmarks": { "Abdul El-Sayed": { "opponent": "Haley Stevens", "expected_remaining_share_points": 48.024175588881675, "expected_final_county_share_points": 48.02417558888167, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 46.791520325763315, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 46.791520325763315, "required_final_county_share_points": 46.791520325763315, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 46.791520325763315, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": -123.91617318946456, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": false }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 46.791520325763315, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 46.791520325763315, "required_final_county_share_points": 46.791520325763315, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 46.791520325763315, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 47.44684331587058, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 47.44684331587058, "required_final_county_share_points": 47.44684331587058, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.024044322225107804, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999973, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.102448403406065, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.102448403406065, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.102448403406065, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.003259695682198218, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.9999999999999996, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": 1.2326552631183603, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "ABOVE", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.010937700917464176, "criticality_score": 0.008873284562785282, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -154.4164568478887, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 20.83448148060418, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 20.83448148060418, "feasible": true, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 112.44125231966704, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Haley Stevens": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 48.025137223368944, "expected_final_county_share_points": 48.02513722336894, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 49.257792486487304, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 49.257792486487304, "required_final_county_share_points": 49.257792486487304, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 49.257792486487304, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 219.96548600171513, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 49.257792486487304, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 49.257792486487304, "required_final_county_share_points": 49.257792486487304, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 49.257792486487304, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 49.91282706624261, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 49.91282706624261, "required_final_county_share_points": 49.91282706624261, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.07865391656842785, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.999999999999999, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 50.56756692245203, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 50.56756692245203, "required_final_county_share_points": 50.56756692245203, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.10597932088248406, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -1.2326552631183603, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.010937700917464176, "criticality_score": 0.008873284562785282, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 250.46576966013933, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 425.71670798863215, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 517.3234788276951, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Mallory McMorrow": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 3.9506871877493968, "expected_final_county_share_points": 3.9506871877493968, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 33.64631598787565, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 33.64631598787565, "required_final_county_share_points": 33.64631598787565, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 33.64631598787565, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 4143.7695708961355, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 33.64631598787565, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 33.64631598787565, "required_final_county_share_points": 33.64631598787565, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 33.64631598787565, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 34.27901459750404, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 34.27901459750404, "required_final_county_share_points": 34.27901459750403, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.159018308558073, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999906, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 34.91053553134712, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 34.91053553134712, "required_final_county_share_points": 34.91053553134713, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.213613509684069, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.999999999999993, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -29.695628800126258, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "WELL BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.010937700917464176, "criticality_score": 0.00036832696795488203, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 206.39131962451978, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 381.64225795301263, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 473.24902879207553, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } } } }, { "cid": "fips:26115", "county": "Monroe", "fips": "26115", "reporting": 20.1, "current_votes": 3167, "current_candidate_votes": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 1406, "Haley Stevens": 1595, "Mallory McMorrow": 166 }, "current_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 44.39532680770445, "Haley Stevens": 50.36311967161351, "Mallory McMorrow": 5.241553520682034 }, "estimated_remaining_votes": 13427.800539038479, "estimated_final_votes": 16594.80053903848, "turnout_disagreement_votes": 0.0, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 46.876193610444986, "Haley Stevens": 48.59278495244829, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.531021437106708 }, "remaining_sources": [ { "model": "v3", "remaining_votes": 13427.800539038479, "weight": 0.1342208488636769 }, { "model": "histgeo", "remaining_votes": 13427.800539038479, "weight": 0.05994207394479305 }, { "model": "latent", "remaining_votes": 13427.800539038479, "weight": 0.07672787409296966 }, { "model": "batchbias", "remaining_votes": 13427.800539038479, "weight": 0.045123489075924846 } ], "share_sources": [ { "model": "v0", "weight": 0.03630604611298715, "source": "statewide raw" }, { "model": "v1", "weight": 0.14599140026529184, "source": "county live" }, { "model": "v3", "weight": 0.15004242351696637, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "market", "weight": 0.0786646379365536, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "histgeo", "weight": 0.06573339512824654, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "latent", "weight": 0.08483492578364633, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "batchbias", "weight": 0.04883898267529022, "source": "county remaining" } ], "candidate_benchmarks": { "Abdul El-Sayed": { "opponent": "Haley Stevens", "expected_remaining_share_points": 46.876193610444986, "expected_final_county_share_points": 46.402737774335584, "current_county_share_points": 44.39532680770445, "recent_batch_votes": 867, "recent_batch_share_points": 41.9838523644752, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 45.65194690701247, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 45.65194690701247, "required_final_county_share_points": 45.41212987244515, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 45.65194690701247, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": -125.06415516790135, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": false }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 45.65194690701247, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 45.65194690701247, "required_final_county_share_points": 45.41212987244515, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 45.65194690701247, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 46.302659033720836, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 46.302659033720836, "required_final_county_share_points": 45.9386582043295, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.024044322225107804, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999973, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 46.95397062225247, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 46.95397062225247, "required_final_county_share_points": 46.465671594999264, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.003259695682198218, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.9999999999999996, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": 1.224246703432513, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -3.6680945425372755, "status": "ABOVE", "recent_status": "WELL BELOW", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.010937700917464176, "criticality_score": 0.008934229421894554, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -155.5644388263254, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 19.68649950216749, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 19.68649950216749, "feasible": true, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 111.29327034123035, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Haley Stevens": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 48.59278495244829, "expected_final_county_share_points": 48.9306407791819, "current_county_share_points": 50.36311967161351, "recent_batch_votes": 867, "recent_batch_share_points": 53.28719723183391, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 49.817031655880804, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 49.817031655880804, "required_final_county_share_points": 49.92124868107234, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 49.817031655880804, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 220.53313373079462, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 49.817031655880804, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 49.817031655880804, "required_final_county_share_points": 49.92124868107234, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 49.817031655880804, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 50.46713870347407, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 50.46713870347407, "required_final_county_share_points": 50.447287408899754, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.07865391656842785, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.999999999999999, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 51.11663506564437, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 51.11663506564437, "required_final_county_share_points": 50.97283199628648, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.10597932088248406, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -1.224246703432513, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": 3.4701655759531036, "status": "BELOW", "recent_status": "WELL ABOVE", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.010937700917464176, "criticality_score": 0.008934229421894554, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 251.03341738921867, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 426.28435571771155, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 517.8911265567745, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Mallory McMorrow": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 4.531021437106708, "expected_final_county_share_points": 4.666621446482503, "current_county_share_points": 5.241553520682034, "recent_batch_votes": 867, "recent_batch_share_points": 4.728950403690888, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 35.12340384155791, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 35.12340384155791, "required_final_county_share_points": 29.42066461648632, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 35.12340384155791, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 4144.349905145495, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 35.12340384155791, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 35.12340384155791, "required_final_county_share_points": 29.42066461648632, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 35.12340384155791, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 35.71554206664462, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 35.71554206664462, "required_final_county_share_points": 29.899797460493698, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.159018308558073, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999906, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 36.30432711307782, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 36.30432711307782, "required_final_county_share_points": 30.376217056214337, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.213613509684069, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.999999999999993, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -30.5923824044512, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -30.39445343786702, "status": "WELL BELOW", "recent_status": "WELL BELOW", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.010937700917464176, "criticality_score": 0.00035753021039226866, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 206.9716538738771, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 382.2225922023699, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 473.8293630414328, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } } } }, { "cid": "fips:26005", "county": "Allegan", "fips": "26005", "reporting": 0.0, "current_votes": 0, "current_candidate_votes": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 0, "Haley Stevens": 0, "Mallory McMorrow": 0 }, "current_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": null, "Haley Stevens": null, "Mallory McMorrow": null }, "estimated_remaining_votes": 12233.214980259478, "estimated_final_votes": 12233.214980259478, "turnout_disagreement_votes": 0.0, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 49.342013689444705, "Haley Stevens": 46.811999583278116, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.84598672727718 }, "remaining_sources": [ { "model": "v3", "remaining_votes": 12233.214980259478, "weight": 0.1342208488636769 }, { "model": "histgeo", "remaining_votes": 12233.214980259478, "weight": 0.05994207394479305 }, { "model": "latent", "remaining_votes": 12233.214980259478, "weight": 0.07672787409296966 }, { "model": "batchbias", "remaining_votes": 12233.214980259478, "weight": 0.045123489075924846 } ], "share_sources": [ { "model": "v0", "weight": 0.03630604611298715, "source": "statewide raw" }, { "model": "v3", "weight": 0.15004242351696637, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "market", "weight": 0.0786646379365536, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "histgeo", "weight": 0.06573339512824654, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "latent", "weight": 0.08483492578364633, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "batchbias", "weight": 0.04883898267529022, "source": "county remaining" } ], "candidate_benchmarks": { "Abdul El-Sayed": { "opponent": "Haley Stevens", "expected_remaining_share_points": 49.342013689444705, "expected_final_county_share_points": 49.342013689444705, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.108035384213146, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.108035384213146, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.108035384213146, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 48.108035384213146, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": -139.3884804393663, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": false }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.108035384213146, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.108035384213146, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.108035384213146, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 48.108035384213146, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.764269404507615, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.764269404507615, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.764269404507615, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.024044322225107804, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999973, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 49.42031421821407, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 49.42031421821407, "required_final_county_share_points": 49.42031421821407, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.003259695682198218, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.9999999999999996, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": 1.2339783052315596, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "ABOVE", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.009964643600723444, "criticality_score": 0.008075217820667883, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -172.86714700496643, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 19.497219022419582, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 19.497219022419582, "feasible": true, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 120.04948176261476, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Haley Stevens": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 46.811999583278116, "expected_final_county_share_points": 46.81199958327811, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.04597788850967, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.04597788850967, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.04597788850967, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 48.04597788850967, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 235.54249371208914, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.04597788850967, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.04597788850967, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.04597788850967, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 48.04597788850967, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.702394686253356, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.702394686253356, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.702394686253356, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.07865391656842785, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.999999999999999, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 49.35898781351872, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 49.35898781351872, "required_final_county_share_points": 49.35898781351872, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.10597932088248406, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -1.2339783052315525, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.009964643600723444, "criticality_score": 0.00807521782066793, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 269.02116027768926, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 461.38552630507525, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 561.9377890452704, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Mallory McMorrow": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 3.84598672727718, "expected_final_county_share_points": 3.84598672727718, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 33.77173500057215, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 33.77173500057215, "required_final_county_share_points": 33.77173500057215, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 33.77173500057215, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 4547.922284567509, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 33.77173500057215, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 33.77173500057215, "required_final_county_share_points": 33.77173500057215, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 33.77173500057215, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 34.42957081742002, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 34.42957081742002, "required_final_county_share_points": 34.42957081742003, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.159018308558073, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999906, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 35.08705134447809, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 35.08705134447809, "required_final_county_share_points": 35.08705134447809, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.213613509684069, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.999999999999993, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -29.92574827329497, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "WELL BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.009964643600723444, "criticality_score": 0.00033297892870453824, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 226.05514742168833, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 418.4195134490743, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 518.9717761892695, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } } } }, { "cid": "26005", "county": "26005", "fips": null, "reporting": 0.0, "current_votes": 0, "current_candidate_votes": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 0, "Haley Stevens": 0, "Mallory McMorrow": 0 }, "current_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": null, "Haley Stevens": null, "Mallory McMorrow": null }, "estimated_remaining_votes": 12233.214980259478, "estimated_final_votes": 12233.214980259478, "turnout_disagreement_votes": 0.0, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 51.520003701578986, "Haley Stevens": 44.646485246666586, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.8335110517544244 }, "remaining_sources": [ { "model": "market", "remaining_votes": 12233.214980259478, "weight": 0.1780093144963334 } ], "share_sources": [ { "model": "v0", "weight": 0.03630604611298715, "source": "statewide raw" }, { "model": "v3", "weight": 0.06301781787712588, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "market", "weight": 0.18729675699179427, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "histgeo", "weight": 0.02760802595386354, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "latent", "weight": 0.03563066882913146, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "batchbias", "weight": 0.020512372723621893, "source": "statewide fallback" } ], "candidate_benchmarks": { "Abdul El-Sayed": { "opponent": "Haley Stevens", "expected_remaining_share_points": 51.520003701578986, "expected_final_county_share_points": 51.52000370157898, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 50.28989257017238, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 50.28989257017238, "required_final_county_share_points": 50.28989257017238, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 50.28989257017238, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": -137.21049042723163, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": false }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 50.28989257017238, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 50.28989257017238, "required_final_county_share_points": 50.28989257017238, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 50.28989257017238, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 50.944425492966886, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 50.944425492966886, "required_final_county_share_points": 50.944425492966886, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.024044322225107804, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999973, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 51.59796256226642, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 51.59796256226642, "required_final_county_share_points": 51.59796256226642, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.003259695682198218, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.9999999999999996, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": 1.230111131406609, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "ABOVE", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.009964643600723444, "criticality_score": 0.008100604365175575, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -170.68915699283215, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 21.675209034553863, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 21.675209034553863, "feasible": true, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 122.22747177474905, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Haley Stevens": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 44.646485246666586, "expected_final_county_share_points": 44.646485246666586, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 45.876596378073195, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 45.876596378073195, "required_final_county_share_points": 45.876596378073195, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 45.876596378073195, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 233.37697937547722, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 45.876596378073195, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 45.876596378073195, "required_final_county_share_points": 45.876596378073195, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 45.876596378073195, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 46.53212092613422, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 46.53212092613422, "required_final_county_share_points": 46.53212092613422, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.07865391656842785, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.999999999999999, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 47.18863282712712, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 47.18863282712712, "required_final_county_share_points": 47.18863282712712, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.10597932088248406, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -1.230111131406609, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.009964643600723444, "criticality_score": 0.008100604365175575, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 266.85564594107774, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 459.2200119684637, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 559.7722747086589, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Mallory McMorrow": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 3.8335110517544244, "expected_final_county_share_points": 3.833511051754424, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 34.54719716022258, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 34.54719716022258, "required_final_county_share_points": 34.54719716022258, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 34.54719716022258, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 4547.909808891987, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 34.54719716022258, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 34.54719716022258, "required_final_county_share_points": 34.54719716022258, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 34.54719716022258, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 35.24050484242717, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 35.24050484242717, "required_final_county_share_points": 35.24050484242718, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.159018308558073, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999906, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 35.93423972785248, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 35.93423972785248, "required_final_county_share_points": 35.93423972785248, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.213613509684069, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.999999999999993, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -30.713686108468156, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "WELL BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.009964643600723444, "criticality_score": 0.00032443659043503945, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 226.04267174616555, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 418.40703777355156, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 518.9593005137467, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } } } }, { "cid": "fips:26037", "county": "Clinton", "fips": "26037", "reporting": 0.11, "current_votes": 11, "current_candidate_votes": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 8, "Haley Stevens": 3, "Mallory McMorrow": 0 }, "current_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 72.72727272727273, "Haley Stevens": 27.27272727272727, "Mallory McMorrow": 0.0 }, "estimated_remaining_votes": 12041.099798507375, "estimated_final_votes": 12052.099798507375, "turnout_disagreement_votes": 0.0, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 49.84449106487659, "Haley Stevens": 46.39578659448361, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.7597223406398017 }, "remaining_sources": [ { "model": "v3", "remaining_votes": 12041.099798507375, "weight": 0.1342208488636769 }, { "model": "histgeo", "remaining_votes": 12041.099798507375, "weight": 0.05994207394479305 }, { "model": "latent", "remaining_votes": 12041.099798507375, "weight": 0.07672787409296966 }, { "model": "batchbias", "remaining_votes": 12041.099798507375, "weight": 0.045123489075924846 } ], "share_sources": [ { "model": "v0", "weight": 0.03630604611298715, "source": "statewide raw" }, { "model": "v3", "weight": 0.15004242351696637, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "market", "weight": 0.0786646379365536, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "histgeo", "weight": 0.06573339512824654, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "latent", "weight": 0.08483492578364633, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "batchbias", "weight": 0.04883898267529022, "source": "county remaining" } ], "candidate_benchmarks": { "Abdul El-Sayed": { "opponent": "Haley Stevens", "expected_remaining_share_points": 49.84449106487659, "expected_final_county_share_points": 49.86537627181104, "current_county_share_points": 72.72727272727273, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.609835129356796, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.609835129356796, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.6318472117335, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 48.609835129356796, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": -141.897189233674, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": false }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.609835129356796, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.609835129356796, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.6318472117335, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 48.609835129356796, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 49.26650470995037, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 49.26650470995037, "required_final_county_share_points": 49.28791744735755, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.024044322225107804, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999973, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 49.92281421558731, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 49.92281421558731, "required_final_county_share_points": 49.943627936666815, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.003259695682198218, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.9999999999999996, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": 1.2346559355197968, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "ABOVE", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.009808154949168061, "criticality_score": 0.007944039037109375, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -175.91000635193933, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 19.523524100656452, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 19.523524100656452, "feasible": true, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 121.68009347024379, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Haley Stevens": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 46.39578659448361, "expected_final_county_share_points": 46.37833290126367, "current_county_share_points": 27.27272727272727, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 47.630442530003414, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 47.630442530003414, "required_final_county_share_points": 47.6118619613412, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 47.630442530003414, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 238.13746689303423, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 47.630442530003414, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 47.630442530003414, "required_final_county_share_points": 47.6118619613412, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 47.630442530003414, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.287465964091794, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.287465964091794, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.26828572749653, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.07865391656842785, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.999999999999999, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.94483700488815, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.94483700488815, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.925056783097816, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.10597932088248406, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -1.234655935519804, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.009808154949168061, "criticality_score": 0.00794403903710933, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 272.1502840112995, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 467.58381446389524, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 569.7403838334827, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Mallory McMorrow": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 3.7597223406398017, "expected_final_county_share_points": 3.756290826925307, "current_county_share_points": 0.0, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 33.62648500349666, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 33.62648500349666, "required_final_county_share_points": 33.59579397527565, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 33.62648500349666, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 4620.336544091753, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 33.62648500349666, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 33.62648500349666, "required_final_county_share_points": 33.59579397527565, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 33.62648500349666, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 34.295472243771066, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 34.295472243771066, "required_final_county_share_points": 34.26417062820295, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.159018308558073, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999906, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 34.9646436066978, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 34.9646436066978, "required_final_county_share_points": 34.93273123573309, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.213613509684069, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.999999999999993, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -29.86676266285686, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "WELL BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.009808154949168061, "criticality_score": 0.00032839698965317577, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 229.51421975745572, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 424.9477502100515, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 527.1043195796389, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } } } }, { "cid": "26037", "county": "26037", "fips": null, "reporting": 0.0, "current_votes": 0, "current_candidate_votes": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 0, "Haley Stevens": 0, "Mallory McMorrow": 0 }, "current_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": null, "Haley Stevens": null, "Mallory McMorrow": null }, "estimated_remaining_votes": 12041.099798507375, "estimated_final_votes": 12041.099798507375, "turnout_disagreement_votes": 0.0, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 51.874843127463365, "Haley Stevens": 44.16633808795746, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.9588187845791745 }, "remaining_sources": [ { "model": "market", "remaining_votes": 12041.099798507375, "weight": 0.1780093144963334 } ], "share_sources": [ { "model": "v0", "weight": 0.03630604611298715, "source": "statewide raw" }, { "model": "v3", "weight": 0.06301781787712588, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "market", "weight": 0.18729675699179427, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "histgeo", "weight": 0.02760802595386354, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "latent", "weight": 0.03563066882913146, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "batchbias", "weight": 0.020512372723621893, "source": "statewide fallback" } ], "candidate_benchmarks": { "Abdul El-Sayed": { "opponent": "Haley Stevens", "expected_remaining_share_points": 51.874843127463365, "expected_final_county_share_points": 51.874843127463365, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 50.64770404426277, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 50.64770404426277, "required_final_county_share_points": 50.64770404426277, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 50.64770404426277, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": -139.86683717108713, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": false }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 50.64770404426277, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 50.64770404426277, "required_final_county_share_points": 50.64770404426277, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 50.64770404426277, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 51.3007246051035, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 51.3007246051035, "required_final_county_share_points": 51.3007246051035, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.024044322225107804, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999973, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 51.952594946812816, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 51.952594946812816, "required_final_county_share_points": 51.952594946812816, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.003259695682198218, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.9999999999999996, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": 1.2271390832005977, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "ABOVE", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.009808154949168061, "criticality_score": 0.007992700325041105, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -173.87965428935257, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 21.553876163243224, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 21.553876163243224, "feasible": true, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 123.71044553283056, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Haley Stevens": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 44.16633808795746, "expected_final_county_share_points": 44.16633808795746, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 45.39347717115807, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 45.39347717115807, "required_final_county_share_points": 45.39347717115807, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 45.39347717115807, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 235.90801838650793, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 45.39347717115807, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 45.39347717115807, "required_final_county_share_points": 45.39347717115807, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 45.39347717115807, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 46.04764450466132, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 46.04764450466132, "required_final_county_share_points": 46.04764450466132, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.07865391656842785, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.999999999999999, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 46.70295511789028, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 46.70295511789028, "required_final_county_share_points": 46.70295511789028, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.10597932088248406, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -1.2271390832006048, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.009808154949168061, "criticality_score": 0.007992700325041058, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 269.9208355047734, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 465.3543659573691, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 567.5109353269565, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Mallory McMorrow": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 3.9588187845791745, "expected_final_county_share_points": 3.9588187845791745, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 35.177207658742205, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 35.177207658742205, "required_final_county_share_points": 35.177207658742205, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 35.177207658742205, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 4620.535640535693, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 35.177207658742205, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 35.177207658742205, "required_final_county_share_points": 35.177207658742205, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 35.177207658742205, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 35.87182725717031, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 35.87182725717031, "required_final_county_share_points": 35.87182725717031, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.159018308558073, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999906, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 36.56643589803949, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 36.56643589803949, "required_final_county_share_points": 36.56643589803949, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.213613509684069, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.999999999999993, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -31.21838887416303, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "WELL BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.009808154949168061, "criticality_score": 0.0003141787677994328, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 229.7133162013951, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 425.14684665399085, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 527.3034160235783, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } } } }, { "cid": "fips:26025", "county": "Calhoun", "fips": "26025", "reporting": 7.2700000000000005, "current_votes": 918, "current_candidate_votes": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 411, "Haley Stevens": 458, "Mallory McMorrow": 49 }, "current_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 44.771241830065364, "Haley Stevens": 49.89106753812636, "Mallory McMorrow": 5.337690631808279 }, "estimated_remaining_votes": 11811.954356962822, "estimated_final_votes": 12729.954356962822, "turnout_disagreement_votes": 0.0, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 47.5320731168922, "Haley Stevens": 48.03569416485915, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.432232718248659 }, "remaining_sources": [ { "model": "v3", "remaining_votes": 11811.954356962822, "weight": 0.1342208488636769 }, { "model": "histgeo", "remaining_votes": 11811.954356962822, "weight": 0.05994207394479305 }, { "model": "latent", "remaining_votes": 11811.954356962822, "weight": 0.07672787409296966 }, { "model": "batchbias", "remaining_votes": 11811.954356962822, "weight": 0.045123489075924846 } ], "share_sources": [ { "model": "v0", "weight": 0.03630604611298715, "source": "statewide raw" }, { "model": "v1", "weight": 0.14599140026529184, "source": "county live" }, { "model": "v3", "weight": 0.15004242351696637, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "market", "weight": 0.0786646379365536, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "histgeo", "weight": 0.06573339512824654, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "latent", "weight": 0.08483492578364633, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "batchbias", "weight": 0.04883898267529022, "source": "county remaining" } ], "candidate_benchmarks": { "Abdul El-Sayed": { "opponent": "Haley Stevens", "expected_remaining_share_points": 47.5320731168922, "expected_final_county_share_points": 47.332980248980945, "current_county_share_points": 44.771241830065364, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 46.30579741135068, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 46.30579741135068, "required_final_county_share_points": 46.19513542591713, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 46.30579741135068, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": -147.92929070452968, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": false }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 46.30579741135068, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 46.30579741135068, "required_final_county_share_points": 46.19513542591713, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 46.30579741135068, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 46.95768758428099, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 46.95768758428099, "required_final_county_share_points": 46.800015596928404, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.024044322225107804, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999973, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 47.6099520136363, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 47.6099520136363, "required_final_county_share_points": 47.40524303546996, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.003259695682198218, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.9999999999999996, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": 1.2262757055415179, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "ABOVE", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.009621503062365902, "criticality_score": 0.007846117328172208, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -182.6019378357808, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 16.62289600953191, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 16.62289600953191, "feasible": true, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 120.76124684283374, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Haley Stevens": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 48.03569416485915, "expected_final_county_share_points": 48.16949140473125, "current_county_share_points": 49.89106753812636, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 49.26196987040067, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 49.26196987040067, "required_final_county_share_points": 49.307336227795055, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 49.26196987040067, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 243.49705798628105, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 49.26196987040067, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 49.26196987040067, "required_final_county_share_points": 49.307336227795055, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 49.26196987040067, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 49.91347964938004, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 49.91347964938004, "required_final_county_share_points": 49.91186343634785, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.07865391656842785, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.999999999999999, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 50.564602900104774, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 50.564602900104774, "required_final_county_share_points": 50.516031990503826, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.10597932088248406, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -1.2262757055415179, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.009621503062365902, "criticality_score": 0.007846117328172208, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 278.16970511753215, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 477.3945389628448, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 581.5328897961467, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Mallory McMorrow": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 4.432232718248659, "expected_final_county_share_points": 4.49752834628782, "current_county_share_points": 5.337690631808279, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 35.09721729517752, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 35.09721729517752, "required_final_county_share_points": 32.951157324268806, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 35.09721729517752, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 4710.568114915691, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 35.09721729517752, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 35.09721729517752, "required_final_county_share_points": 32.951157324268806, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 35.09721729517752, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 35.70379045516581, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 35.70379045516581, "required_final_county_share_points": 33.513988445184914, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.159018308558073, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999906, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 36.30743029704905, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 36.30743029704905, "required_final_county_share_points": 34.07409777947088, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.213613509684069, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.999999999999993, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -30.664984576928862, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "WELL BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.009621503062365902, "criticality_score": 0.0003137618751520503, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 234.56624367092166, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 433.79107751623434, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 537.9294283495362, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } } } }, { "cid": "26025", "county": "26025", "fips": null, "reporting": 0.0, "current_votes": 0, "current_candidate_votes": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 0, "Haley Stevens": 0, "Mallory McMorrow": 0 }, "current_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": null, "Haley Stevens": null, "Mallory McMorrow": null }, "estimated_remaining_votes": 11811.954356962822, "estimated_final_votes": 11811.954356962822, "turnout_disagreement_votes": 0.0, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 50.29492018742767, "Haley Stevens": 45.67831422390735, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.026765588664979 }, "remaining_sources": [ { "model": "market", "remaining_votes": 11811.954356962822, "weight": 0.1780093144963334 } ], "share_sources": [ { "model": "v0", "weight": 0.03630604611298715, "source": "statewide raw" }, { "model": "v3", "weight": 0.06301781787712588, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "market", "weight": 0.18729675699179427, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "histgeo", "weight": 0.02760802595386354, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "latent", "weight": 0.03563066882913146, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "batchbias", "weight": 0.020512372723621893, "source": "statewide fallback" } ], "candidate_benchmarks": { "Abdul El-Sayed": { "opponent": "Haley Stevens", "expected_remaining_share_points": 50.29492018742767, "expected_final_county_share_points": 50.29492018742767, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 49.064571880940164, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 49.064571880940164, "required_final_county_share_points": 49.06457188094016, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 49.064571880940164, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": -145.16644363399433, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": false }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 49.064571880940164, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 49.064571880940164, "required_final_county_share_points": 49.06457188094016, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 49.064571880940164, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 49.719046956777056, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 49.719046956777056, "required_final_county_share_points": 49.71904695677706, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.024044322225107804, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999973, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 50.37294391319712, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 50.37294391319712, "required_final_county_share_points": 50.37294391319712, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.003259695682198218, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.9999999999999996, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": 1.2303483064875067, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "ABOVE", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.009621503062365902, "criticality_score": 0.007820145735669042, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -179.83909076524534, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 19.385743080067382, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 19.385743080067382, "feasible": true, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 123.52409391336923, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Haley Stevens": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 45.67831422390735, "expected_final_county_share_points": 45.67831422390735, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 46.908662530394864, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 46.908662530394864, "required_final_county_share_points": 46.90866253039486, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 46.908662530394864, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 241.13967804532933, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 46.908662530394864, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 46.908662530394864, "required_final_county_share_points": 46.90866253039486, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 46.908662530394864, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 47.56370999331633, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 47.56370999331633, "required_final_county_share_points": 47.56370999331634, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.07865391656842785, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.999999999999999, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.21932407802915, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.21932407802915, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.21932407802916, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.10597932088248406, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -1.2303483064875138, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.009621503062365902, "criticality_score": 0.007820145735668997, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 275.8123251765804, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 475.03715902189305, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 579.175509855195, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Mallory McMorrow": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 4.026765588664979, "expected_final_county_share_points": 4.026765588664978, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 34.82783918217315, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 34.82783918217315, "required_final_county_share_points": 34.82783918217316, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 34.82783918217315, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 4710.162647786108, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 34.82783918217315, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 34.82783918217315, "required_final_county_share_points": 34.82783918217316, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 34.82783918217315, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 35.494522382720554, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 35.494522382720554, "required_final_county_share_points": 35.494522382720554, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.159018308558073, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999906, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 36.16040573222969, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 36.16040573222969, "required_final_county_share_points": 36.16040573222969, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.213613509684069, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.999999999999993, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -30.80107359350817, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "WELL BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.009621503062365902, "criticality_score": 0.0003123755746096393, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 234.16077654133798, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 433.3856103866507, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 537.5239612199525, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } } } }, { "cid": "fips:26055", "county": "Grand Traverse", "fips": "26055", "reporting": 6.860000000000001, "current_votes": 1147, "current_candidate_votes": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 716, "Haley Stevens": 400, "Mallory McMorrow": 31 }, "current_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 62.42371403661726, "Haley Stevens": 34.873583260680036, "Mallory McMorrow": 2.7027027027027026 }, "estimated_remaining_votes": 11235.868104134455, "estimated_final_votes": 12382.868104134455, "turnout_disagreement_votes": 0.0, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 54.43571239177316, "Haley Stevens": 42.16109731196045, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.4031902962664082 }, "remaining_sources": [ { "model": "v3", "remaining_votes": 11235.868104134455, "weight": 0.1342208488636769 }, { "model": "histgeo", "remaining_votes": 11235.868104134455, "weight": 0.05994207394479305 }, { "model": "latent", "remaining_votes": 11235.868104134455, "weight": 0.07672787409296966 }, { "model": "batchbias", "remaining_votes": 11235.868104134455, "weight": 0.045123489075924846 } ], "share_sources": [ { "model": "v0", "weight": 0.03630604611298715, "source": "statewide raw" }, { "model": "v1", "weight": 0.14599140026529184, "source": "county live" }, { "model": "v3", "weight": 0.15004242351696637, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "market", "weight": 0.0786646379365536, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "histgeo", "weight": 0.06573339512824654, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "latent", "weight": 0.08483492578364633, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "batchbias", "weight": 0.04883898267529022, "source": "county remaining" } ], "candidate_benchmarks": { "Abdul El-Sayed": { "opponent": "Haley Stevens", "expected_remaining_share_points": 54.43571239177316, "expected_final_county_share_points": 55.175624810252124, "current_county_share_points": 62.42371403661726, "recent_batch_votes": 831, "recent_batch_share_points": 57.52105896510229, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 53.212056538779926, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 53.212056538779926, "required_final_county_share_points": 54.065313721297414, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 53.212056538779926, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": -151.0473607994102, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": false }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 53.212056538779926, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 53.212056538779926, "required_final_county_share_points": 54.065313721297414, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 53.212056538779926, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 53.863590480059784, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 53.863590480059784, "required_final_county_share_points": 54.65649739280427, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.024044322225107804, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999973, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 54.51314426580795, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 54.51314426580795, "required_final_county_share_points": 55.24588432657698, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.003259695682198218, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.9999999999999996, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": 1.2236558529932324, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": 4.309002426322365, "status": "ABOVE", "recent_status": "WELL ABOVE", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.00915224831600738, "criticality_score": 0.007479430015898431, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -187.4977464352749, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 21.94175769066065, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 21.94175769066065, "feasible": true, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 131.41949767941256, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Haley Stevens": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 42.16109731196045, "expected_final_county_share_points": 41.48606964094554, "current_county_share_points": 34.873583260680036, "recent_batch_votes": 831, "recent_batch_share_points": 39.95186522262335, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 43.38475316495368, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 43.38475316495368, "required_final_county_share_points": 42.596380729900254, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 43.38475316495368, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 247.6441705031438, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 43.38475316495368, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 43.38475316495368, "required_final_county_share_points": 42.596380729900254, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 43.38475316495368, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 44.038269839106256, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 44.038269839106256, "required_final_county_share_points": 43.18936347774841, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.07865391656842785, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.999999999999999, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 44.69377178815842, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 44.69377178815842, "required_final_county_share_points": 43.78414760850195, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.10597932088248406, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -1.2236558529932324, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -3.432887942330332, "status": "BELOW", "recent_status": "WELL BELOW", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.00915224831600738, "criticality_score": 0.007479430015898431, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 284.09455613900855, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 493.53406026494406, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 603.011800253696, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Mallory McMorrow": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 3.4031902962664082, "expected_final_county_share_points": 3.3383055488023445, "current_county_share_points": 2.7027027027027026, "recent_batch_votes": 831, "recent_batch_share_points": 2.527075812274368, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 33.689853437440846, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 33.689853437440846, "required_final_county_share_points": 30.819576406800614, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 33.689853437440846, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 4950.832416323424, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 33.689853437440846, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 33.689853437440846, "required_final_county_share_points": 30.819576406800614, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 33.689853437440846, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 34.44253091201927, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 34.44253091201927, "required_final_county_share_points": 31.5025348909092, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.159018308558073, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999906, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 35.19903705591981, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 35.19903705591981, "required_final_county_share_points": 32.188967402452775, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.213613509684069, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.999999999999993, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -30.286663141174436, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -31.162777625166477, "status": "WELL BELOW", "recent_status": "WELL BELOW", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.00915224831600738, "criticality_score": 0.0003021874107869276, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 245.3366491233145, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 454.77615324925, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 564.253893238002, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } } } }, { "cid": "26055", "county": "26055", "fips": null, "reporting": 0.0, "current_votes": 0, "current_candidate_votes": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 0, "Haley Stevens": 0, "Mallory McMorrow": 0 }, "current_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": null, "Haley Stevens": null, "Mallory McMorrow": null }, "estimated_remaining_votes": 11235.868104134455, "estimated_final_votes": 11235.868104134455, "turnout_disagreement_votes": 0.0, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 50.27001427473839, "Haley Stevens": 45.81976287256555, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.910222852696068 }, "remaining_sources": [ { "model": "market", "remaining_votes": 11235.868104134455, "weight": 0.1780093144963334 } ], "share_sources": [ { "model": "v0", "weight": 0.03630604611298715, "source": "statewide raw" }, { "model": "v3", "weight": 0.06301781787712588, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "market", "weight": 0.18729675699179427, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "histgeo", "weight": 0.02760802595386354, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "latent", "weight": 0.03563066882913146, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "batchbias", "weight": 0.020512372723621893, "source": "statewide fallback" } ], "candidate_benchmarks": { "Abdul El-Sayed": { "opponent": "Haley Stevens", "expected_remaining_share_points": 50.27001427473839, "expected_final_county_share_points": 50.27001427473838, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 49.03801996232512, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 49.03801996232512, "required_final_county_share_points": 49.03801996232512, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 49.03801996232512, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": -155.21305891644462, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": false }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 49.03801996232512, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 49.03801996232512, "required_final_county_share_points": 49.03801996232512, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 49.03801996232512, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 49.69335651254969, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 49.69335651254969, "required_final_county_share_points": 49.69335651254969, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.024044322225107804, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999973, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 50.34814620456779, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 50.34814620456779, "required_final_county_share_points": 50.34814620456779, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.003259695682198218, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.9999999999999996, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": 1.2319943124132635, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "ABOVE", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.00915224831600738, "criticality_score": 0.007428807279215202, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -191.66344455230967, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 17.77605957362588, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 17.77605957362588, "feasible": true, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 127.25379956237778, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Haley Stevens": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 45.81976287256555, "expected_final_county_share_points": 45.819762872565555, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 47.051757184978804, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 47.051757184978804, "required_final_county_share_points": 47.051757184978804, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 47.051757184978804, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 251.30283606374854, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 47.051757184978804, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 47.051757184978804, "required_final_county_share_points": 47.051757184978804, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 47.051757184978804, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 47.70763477133866, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 47.70763477133866, "required_final_county_share_points": 47.70763477133866, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.07865391656842785, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.999999999999999, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.36404753982466, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.36404753982466, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.36404753982466, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.10597932088248406, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -1.2319943124132564, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.00915224831600738, "criticality_score": 0.0074288072792152455, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 287.7532216996136, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 497.19272582554913, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 606.6704658143011, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Mallory McMorrow": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 3.910222852696068, "expected_final_county_share_points": 3.910222852696068, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 34.37576966977189, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 34.37576966977189, "required_final_county_share_points": 34.37576966977189, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 34.37576966977189, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 4951.339448879853, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 34.37576966977189, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 34.37576966977189, "required_final_county_share_points": 34.37576966977189, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 34.37576966977189, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 35.04626833729776, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 35.04626833729776, "required_final_county_share_points": 35.04626833729776, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.159018308558073, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999906, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 35.71643916962442, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 35.71643916962442, "required_final_county_share_points": 35.71643916962442, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.213613509684069, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.999999999999993, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -30.465546817075822, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "WELL BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.00915224831600738, "criticality_score": 0.00030041306564954155, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 245.84368167974415, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 455.28318580567964, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 564.7609257944316, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } } } }, { "cid": "fips:26147", "county": "St. Clair", "fips": "26147", "reporting": 34.81, "current_votes": 6209, "current_candidate_votes": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 2684, "Haley Stevens": 3260, "Mallory McMorrow": 265 }, "current_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 43.2275728780802, "Haley Stevens": 52.50442905459817, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.2679980673216305 }, "estimated_remaining_votes": 10755.18585599924, "estimated_final_votes": 16964.18585599924, "turnout_disagreement_votes": 0.0, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 45.83281190141864, "Haley Stevens": 50.08974230375978, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.077445794821586 }, "remaining_sources": [ { "model": "v3", "remaining_votes": 10755.18585599924, "weight": 0.1342208488636769 }, { "model": "histgeo", "remaining_votes": 10755.18585599924, "weight": 0.05994207394479305 }, { "model": "latent", "remaining_votes": 10755.18585599924, "weight": 0.07672787409296966 }, { "model": "batchbias", "remaining_votes": 10755.18585599924, "weight": 0.045123489075924846 } ], "share_sources": [ { "model": "v0", "weight": 0.03630604611298715, "source": "statewide raw" }, { "model": "v1", "weight": 0.14599140026529184, "source": "county live" }, { "model": "v3", "weight": 0.15004242351696637, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "market", "weight": 0.0786646379365536, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "histgeo", "weight": 0.06573339512824654, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "latent", "weight": 0.08483492578364633, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "batchbias", "weight": 0.04883898267529022, "source": "county remaining" } ], "candidate_benchmarks": { "Abdul El-Sayed": { "opponent": "Haley Stevens", "expected_remaining_share_points": 45.83281190141864, "expected_final_county_share_points": 44.879277836582396, "current_county_share_points": 43.2275728780802, "recent_batch_votes": 522, "recent_batch_share_points": 31.226053639846747, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 44.605605457129485, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 44.605605457129485, "required_final_county_share_points": 44.1012367620476, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 44.605605457129485, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": -168.83393016334102, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": false }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 44.605605457129485, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 44.605605457129485, "required_final_county_share_points": 44.1012367620476, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 44.605605457129485, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 45.25768385535758, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 45.25768385535758, "required_final_county_share_points": 44.514650316058216, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.024044322225107804, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999973, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 45.91083310615452, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 45.91083310615452, "required_final_county_share_points": 44.92874278378154, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.003259695682198218, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.9999999999999996, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": 1.227206444289152, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -13.379551817282739, "status": "ABOVE", "recent_status": "WELL BELOW", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.00876070551261586, "criticality_score": 0.007138738191429901, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -206.91339534719629, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 11.88660268739855, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 11.88660268739855, "feasible": true, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 126.25723870632014, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Haley Stevens": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 50.08974230375978, "expected_final_county_share_points": 50.973533023999586, "current_county_share_points": 52.50442905459817, "recent_batch_votes": 522, "recent_batch_share_points": 63.02681992337165, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 51.31694874804893, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 51.31694874804893, "required_final_county_share_points": 51.75157409853439, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 51.31694874804893, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 264.7564843685194, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 51.31694874804893, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 51.31694874804893, "required_final_county_share_points": 51.75157409853439, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 51.31694874804893, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 51.96795247398964, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 51.96795247398964, "required_final_county_share_points": 52.16430631715509, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.07865391656842785, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.999999999999999, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 52.617877730333426, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 52.617877730333426, "required_final_county_share_points": 52.57635479291576, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.10597932088248406, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -1.227206444289152, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": 11.709871175322718, "status": "BELOW", "recent_status": "WELL ABOVE", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.00876070551261586, "criticality_score": 0.007138738191429901, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 302.8359495523747, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 521.6359475869695, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 636.0065836058911, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Mallory McMorrow": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 4.077445794821586, "expected_final_county_share_points": 4.147189139418012, "current_county_share_points": 4.2679980673216305, "recent_batch_votes": 522, "recent_batch_share_points": 5.747126436781609, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 33.19113079950426, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 33.19113079950426, "required_final_county_share_points": 22.605080124363035, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 33.19113079950426, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 5172.622460493366, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 33.19113079950426, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 33.19113079950426, "required_final_county_share_points": 22.605080124363035, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 33.19113079950426, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 33.78345810582155, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 33.78345810582155, "required_final_county_share_points": 22.98061186641672, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.159018308558073, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999906, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 34.373572566360906, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 34.373572566360906, "required_final_county_share_points": 23.35474067833191, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.213613509684069, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.999999999999993, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -29.113685004682672, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -27.444004362722648, "status": "WELL BELOW", "recent_status": "WELL BELOW", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.00876070551261586, "criticality_score": 0.00030091366006078515, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 256.82365304343654, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 475.6236510780313, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 589.994287096953, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } } } }, { "cid": "26147", "county": "26147", "fips": null, "reporting": 0.0, "current_votes": 0, "current_candidate_votes": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 0, "Haley Stevens": 0, "Mallory McMorrow": 0 }, "current_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": null, "Haley Stevens": null, "Mallory McMorrow": null }, "estimated_remaining_votes": 10755.18585599924, "estimated_final_votes": 10755.18585599924, "turnout_disagreement_votes": 0.0, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 47.35787802698279, "Haley Stevens": 48.840422776193336, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.8016991968238676 }, "remaining_sources": [ { "model": "market", "remaining_votes": 10755.18585599924, "weight": 0.1780093144963334 } ], "share_sources": [ { "model": "v0", "weight": 0.03630604611298715, "source": "statewide raw" }, { "model": "v3", "weight": 0.06301781787712588, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "market", "weight": 0.18729675699179427, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "histgeo", "weight": 0.02760802595386354, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "latent", "weight": 0.03563066882913146, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "batchbias", "weight": 0.020512372723621893, "source": "statewide fallback" } ], "candidate_benchmarks": { "Abdul El-Sayed": { "opponent": "Haley Stevens", "expected_remaining_share_points": 47.35787802698279, "expected_final_county_share_points": 47.357878026982796, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 46.12409166333314, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 46.12409166333314, "required_final_county_share_points": 46.12409166333314, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 46.12409166333314, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": -167.30886403777703, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": false }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 46.12409166333314, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 46.12409166333314, "required_final_county_share_points": 46.12409166333314, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 46.12409166333314, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 46.77989456555659, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 46.77989456555659, "required_final_county_share_points": 46.779894565556596, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.024044322225107804, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999973, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 47.43625560333855, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 47.43625560333855, "required_final_county_share_points": 47.43625560333856, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.003259695682198218, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.9999999999999996, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": 1.2337863636496493, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "ABOVE", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.00876070551261586, "criticality_score": 0.007100666509800706, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -205.38832922163215, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 13.411668812962702, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 13.411668812962702, "feasible": true, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 127.78230483188429, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Haley Stevens": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 48.840422776193336, "expected_final_county_share_points": 48.84042277619333, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 50.07420913984299, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 50.07420913984299, "required_final_county_share_points": 50.07420913984299, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 50.07420913984299, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 263.5071648409531, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 50.07420913984299, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 50.07420913984299, "required_final_county_share_points": 50.07420913984299, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 50.07420913984299, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 50.72944812249888, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 50.72944812249888, "required_final_county_share_points": 50.72944812249888, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.07865391656842785, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.999999999999999, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 51.384117411156694, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 51.384117411156694, "required_final_county_share_points": 51.384117411156694, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.10597932088248406, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -1.2337863636496564, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.00876070551261586, "criticality_score": 0.007100666509800665, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 301.58663002480824, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 520.386628059403, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 634.7572640783247, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Mallory McMorrow": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 3.8016991968238676, "expected_final_county_share_points": 3.8016991968238676, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 32.83172907651274, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 32.83172907651274, "required_final_county_share_points": 32.83172907651274, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 32.83172907651274, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 5172.346713895367, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 32.83172907651274, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 32.83172907651274, "required_final_county_share_points": 32.83172907651274, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 32.83172907651274, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 33.45911217382962, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 33.45911217382962, "required_final_county_share_points": 33.45911217382962, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.159018308558073, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999906, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 34.08570176743383, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 34.08570176743383, "required_final_county_share_points": 34.08570176743383, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.213613509684069, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.999999999999993, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -29.03002987968887, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "WELL BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.00876070551261586, "criticality_score": 0.0003017807955735302, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 256.5479064454388, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 475.34790448003355, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 589.7185404989552, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } } } }, { "cid": "26091", "county": "26091", "fips": null, "reporting": 0.0, "current_votes": 0, "current_candidate_votes": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 0, "Haley Stevens": 0, "Mallory McMorrow": 0 }, "current_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": null, "Haley Stevens": null, "Mallory McMorrow": null }, "estimated_remaining_votes": 9669.598638685868, "estimated_final_votes": 9669.598638685868, "turnout_disagreement_votes": 0.0, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 49.45326057381173, "Haley Stevens": 46.839178974492555, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.707560451695713 }, "remaining_sources": [ { "model": "market", "remaining_votes": 9669.598638685868, "weight": 0.1780093144963334 } ], "share_sources": [ { "model": "v0", "weight": 0.03630604611298715, "source": "statewide raw" }, { "model": "v3", "weight": 0.06301781787712588, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "market", "weight": 0.18729675699179427, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "histgeo", "weight": 0.02760802595386354, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "latent", "weight": 0.03563066882913146, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "batchbias", "weight": 0.020512372723621893, "source": "statewide fallback" } ], "candidate_benchmarks": { "Abdul El-Sayed": { "opponent": "Haley Stevens", "expected_remaining_share_points": 49.45326057381173, "expected_final_county_share_points": 49.453260573811725, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.21753450149631, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.21753450149631, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.21753450149631, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 48.21753450149631, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": -189.31370321426488, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": false }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.21753450149631, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.21753450149631, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.21753450149631, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 48.21753450149631, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.874704590997396, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.874704590997396, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.87470459099739, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.024044322225107804, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999973, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 49.531670216098654, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 49.531670216098654, "required_final_county_share_points": 49.531670216098654, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.003259695682198218, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.9999999999999996, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": 1.2357260723154226, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "ABOVE", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.007876433492915, "criticality_score": 0.006373931625604252, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -231.66827662033046, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 11.6959758254307, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 11.6959758254307, "feasible": true, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 138.90678289358368, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Haley Stevens": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 46.839178974492555, "expected_final_county_share_points": 46.83917897449255, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.07490504680796, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.07490504680796, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.07490504680797, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 48.07490504680796, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 285.60614276256916, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.07490504680796, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.07490504680796, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.07490504680797, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 48.07490504680796, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.73227317566207, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.73227317566207, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.73227317566207, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.07865391656842785, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.999999999999999, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 49.3898328994224, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 49.3898328994224, "required_final_county_share_points": 49.38983289942241, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.10597932088248406, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -1.2357260723154084, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.007876433492915, "criticality_score": 0.0063739316256043255, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 327.96071616863475, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 571.324968614396, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 698.535775682549, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Mallory McMorrow": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 3.707560451695713, "expected_final_county_share_points": 3.707560451695713, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 33.27257907093374, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 33.27257907093374, "required_final_county_share_points": 33.27257907093374, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 33.27257907093374, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 5752.515170292247, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 33.27257907093374, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 33.27257907093374, "required_final_county_share_points": 33.27257907093374, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 33.27257907093374, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 33.937107256748334, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 33.937107256748334, "required_final_county_share_points": 33.937107256748334, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.159018308558073, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999906, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 34.60191950368675, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 34.60191950368675, "required_final_county_share_points": 34.60191950368675, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.213613509684069, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.999999999999993, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -29.565018619238025, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "WELL BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.007876433492915, "criticality_score": 0.0002664105710317323, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 284.8290976458379, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 528.1933500915991, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 655.4041571597521, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } } } }, { "cid": "fips:26091", "county": "Lenawee", "fips": "26091", "reporting": 0.0, "current_votes": 0, "current_candidate_votes": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 0, "Haley Stevens": 0, "Mallory McMorrow": 0 }, "current_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": null, "Haley Stevens": null, "Mallory McMorrow": null }, "estimated_remaining_votes": 9669.598638685866, "estimated_final_votes": 9669.598638685866, "turnout_disagreement_votes": 1.8189894035458565e-12, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 49.40484154496592, "Haley Stevens": 46.76140133975397, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.8337571152801133 }, "remaining_sources": [ { "model": "v3", "remaining_votes": 9669.598638685868, "weight": 0.1342208488636769 }, { "model": "histgeo", "remaining_votes": 9669.598638685868, "weight": 0.05994207394479305 }, { "model": "latent", "remaining_votes": 9669.598638685868, "weight": 0.07672787409296966 }, { "model": "batchbias", "remaining_votes": 9669.598638685868, "weight": 0.045123489075924846 } ], "share_sources": [ { "model": "v0", "weight": 0.03630604611298715, "source": "statewide raw" }, { "model": "v3", "weight": 0.15004242351696637, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "market", "weight": 0.0786646379365536, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "histgeo", "weight": 0.06573339512824654, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "latent", "weight": 0.08483492578364633, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "batchbias", "weight": 0.04883898267529022, "source": "county remaining" } ], "candidate_benchmarks": { "Abdul El-Sayed": { "opponent": "Haley Stevens", "expected_remaining_share_points": 49.40484154496592, "expected_final_county_share_points": 49.40484154496592, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.17074715851927, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.17074715851927, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.170747158519276, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 48.17074715851927, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": -189.36212224311055, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": false }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.17074715851927, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.17074715851927, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.170747158519276, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 48.17074715851927, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.827052193634955, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.827052193634955, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.82705219363495, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.024044322225107804, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999973, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 49.483146923868745, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 49.483146923868745, "required_final_county_share_points": 49.48314692386875, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.003259695682198218, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.9999999999999996, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": 1.2340943864466496, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "ABOVE", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.007876433492914997, "criticality_score": 0.006382359063793942, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -231.71669564917636, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 11.647556796584873, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 11.647556796584873, "feasible": true, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 138.8583638647379, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Haley Stevens": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 46.76140133975397, "expected_final_county_share_points": 46.76140133975397, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 47.9954957262006, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 47.9954957262006, "required_final_county_share_points": 47.9954957262006, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 47.9954957262006, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 285.52836512783045, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 47.9954957262006, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 47.9954957262006, "required_final_county_share_points": 47.9954957262006, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 47.9954957262006, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.65200465530991, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.65200465530991, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.6520046553099, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.07865391656842785, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.999999999999999, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 49.30871104791245, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 49.30871104791245, "required_final_county_share_points": 49.30871104791246, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.10597932088248406, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -1.2340943864466354, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.007876433492914997, "criticality_score": 0.006382359063794015, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 327.8829385338962, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 571.2471909796575, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 698.4579980478105, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Mallory McMorrow": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 3.8337571152801133, "expected_final_county_share_points": 3.8337571152801133, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 33.74882454142502, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 33.74882454142502, "required_final_county_share_points": 33.74882454142502, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 33.74882454142502, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 5752.641366955833, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 33.74882454142502, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 33.74882454142502, "required_final_county_share_points": 33.74882454142502, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 33.74882454142502, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 34.40811213788416, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 34.40811213788416, "required_final_county_share_points": 34.40811213788416, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.159018308558073, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999906, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 35.067116345943184, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 35.067116345943184, "required_final_county_share_points": 35.067116345943184, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.213613509684069, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.999999999999993, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -29.91506742614491, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "WELL BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.007876433492914997, "criticality_score": 0.0002632931887036705, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 284.95529430942236, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 528.3195467551836, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 655.5303538233367, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } } } }, { "cid": "26087", "county": "26087", "fips": null, "reporting": 0.0, "current_votes": 0, "current_candidate_votes": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 0, "Haley Stevens": 0, "Mallory McMorrow": 0 }, "current_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": null, "Haley Stevens": null, "Mallory McMorrow": null }, "estimated_remaining_votes": 8180.641770206287, "estimated_final_votes": 8180.641770206287, "turnout_disagreement_votes": 9.094947017729282e-13, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 47.492763922216724, "Haley Stevens": 48.89128799036895, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.6159480874143175 }, "remaining_sources": [ { "model": "market", "remaining_votes": 8180.641770206288, "weight": 0.1780093144963334 } ], "share_sources": [ { "model": "v0", "weight": 0.03630604611298715, "source": "statewide raw" }, { "model": "v3", "weight": 0.06301781787712588, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "market", "weight": 0.18729675699179427, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "histgeo", "weight": 0.02760802595386354, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "latent", "weight": 0.03563066882913146, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "batchbias", "weight": 0.020512372723621893, "source": "statewide fallback" } ], "candidate_benchmarks": { "Abdul El-Sayed": { "opponent": "Haley Stevens", "expected_remaining_share_points": 47.492763922216724, "expected_final_county_share_points": 47.492763922216724, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 46.256533276068595, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 46.256533276068595, "required_final_county_share_points": 46.256533276068595, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 46.256533276068595, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": -234.73212415647495, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": false }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 46.256533276068595, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 46.256533276068595, "required_final_county_share_points": 46.256533276068595, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 46.256533276068595, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 46.913642523992635, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 46.913642523992635, "required_final_county_share_points": 46.913642523992635, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.024044322225107804, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999973, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 47.57129484250533, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 47.57129484250533, "required_final_county_share_points": 47.57129484250533, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.003259695682198218, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.9999999999999996, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": 1.2362306461481296, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "ABOVE", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.006663594140774916, "criticality_score": 0.005390251537233336, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -284.7956444588789, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 2.8632838081873047, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 2.8632838081873047, "feasible": true, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 153.22770281162747, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Haley Stevens": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 48.89128799036895, "expected_final_county_share_points": 48.89128799036896, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 50.12751863651709, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 50.12751863651709, "required_final_county_share_points": 50.12751863651709, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 50.12751863651709, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 331.1161760690606, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 50.12751863651709, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 50.12751863651709, "required_final_county_share_points": 50.12751863651709, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 50.12751863651709, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 50.78407897745313, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 50.78407897745313, "required_final_county_share_points": 50.78407897745313, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.07865391656842785, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.999999999999999, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 51.44008458406315, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 51.44008458406315, "required_final_county_share_points": 51.44008458406315, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.10597932088248406, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -1.2362306461481367, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.006663594140774916, "criticality_score": 0.005390251537233305, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 381.17969637146456, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 668.8386246385307, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 819.2030436419709, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Mallory McMorrow": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 3.6159480874143175, "expected_final_county_share_points": 3.6159480874143175, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 32.172494533581066, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 32.172494533581066, "required_final_county_share_points": 32.172494533581066, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 32.172494533581066, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 6798.762808158199, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 32.172494533581066, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 32.172494533581066, "required_final_county_share_points": 32.172494533581066, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 32.172494533581066, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 32.80873554394479, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 32.80873554394479, "required_final_county_share_points": 32.80873554394479, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.159018308558073, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999906, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 33.44500349527299, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 33.44500349527299, "required_final_county_share_points": 33.44500349527299, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.213613509684069, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.999999999999993, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -28.55654644616675, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "WELL BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.006663594140774916, "criticality_score": 0.0002333473395789215, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 335.90435646850995, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 623.5632847355761, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 773.9277037390162, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } } } }, { "cid": "fips:26087", "county": "Lapeer", "fips": "26087", "reporting": 7.41, "current_votes": 685, "current_candidate_votes": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 258, "Haley Stevens": 399, "Mallory McMorrow": 28 }, "current_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 37.66423357664234, "Haley Stevens": 58.24817518248175, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.087591240875913 }, "estimated_remaining_votes": 8180.641770206287, "estimated_final_votes": 8865.641770206286, "turnout_disagreement_votes": 9.094947017729282e-13, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 44.72409096920356, "Haley Stevens": 51.33780540183276, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.9381036289636753 }, "remaining_sources": [ { "model": "v3", "remaining_votes": 8180.641770206288, "weight": 0.1342208488636769 }, { "model": "histgeo", "remaining_votes": 8180.641770206288, "weight": 0.05994207394479305 }, { "model": "latent", "remaining_votes": 8180.641770206288, "weight": 0.07672787409296966 }, { "model": "batchbias", "remaining_votes": 8180.641770206288, "weight": 0.045123489075924846 } ], "share_sources": [ { "model": "v0", "weight": 0.03630604611298715, "source": "statewide raw" }, { "model": "v1", "weight": 0.14599140026529184, "source": "county live" }, { "model": "v3", "weight": 0.15004242351696637, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "market", "weight": 0.0786646379365536, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "histgeo", "weight": 0.06573339512824654, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "latent", "weight": 0.08483492578364633, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "batchbias", "weight": 0.04883898267529022, "source": "county remaining" } ], "candidate_benchmarks": { "Abdul El-Sayed": { "opponent": "Haley Stevens", "expected_remaining_share_points": 44.72409096920356, "expected_final_county_share_points": 44.17861412282835, "current_county_share_points": 37.66423357664234, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 43.49928200064763, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 43.49928200064763, "required_final_county_share_points": 43.048439492677616, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 43.49928200064763, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": -237.50079710948805, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": false }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 43.49928200064763, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 43.49928200064763, "required_final_county_share_points": 43.048439492677616, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 43.49928200064763, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 44.149895210936045, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 44.149895210936045, "required_final_county_share_points": 43.64878335297433, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.024044322225107804, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999973, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 44.80201171029029, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 44.80201171029029, "required_final_county_share_points": 44.25051435135346, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.003259695682198218, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.9999999999999996, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": 1.2248089685559265, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "ABOVE", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.006663594140774916, "criticality_score": 0.00544051710254165, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -287.56431741189203, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 0.09461085517413892, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.09461085517413892, "feasible": true, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 150.45902985861431, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Haley Stevens": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 51.33780540183276, "expected_final_county_share_points": 51.8717321521389, "current_county_share_points": 58.24817518248175, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 52.56261437038868, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 52.56261437038868, "required_final_county_share_points": 53.001906782289645, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 52.56261437038868, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 333.5626934805244, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 52.56261437038868, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 52.56261437038868, "required_final_county_share_points": 53.001906782289645, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 52.56261437038868, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 53.21172305363015, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 53.21172305363015, "required_final_county_share_points": 53.600862362174894, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.07865391656842785, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.999999999999999, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 53.85932599592864, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 53.85932599592864, "required_final_county_share_points": 54.198428541543784, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.10597932088248406, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -1.2248089685559194, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.006663594140774916, "criticality_score": 0.0054405171025416815, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 383.6262137829284, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 671.2851420499945, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 821.6495610534347, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Mallory McMorrow": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 3.9381036289636753, "expected_final_county_share_points": 3.949653725032751, "current_county_share_points": 4.087591240875913, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 32.249482010879674, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 32.249482010879674, "required_final_county_share_points": 30.07356562744523, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 32.249482010879674, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 6799.084963699748, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 32.249482010879674, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 32.249482010879674, "required_final_county_share_points": 30.07356562744523, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 32.249482010879674, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 32.829018033308586, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 32.829018033308586, "required_final_county_share_points": 30.608324048246043, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.159018308558073, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999906, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 33.40652993372774, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 33.40652993372774, "required_final_county_share_points": 31.141214739954, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.213613509684069, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.999999999999993, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -28.311378381916, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "WELL BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.006663594140774916, "criticality_score": 0.0002353680577075439, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 336.2265120100593, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 623.8854402771254, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 774.2498592805656, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } } } }, { "cid": "fips:26111", "county": "Midland", "fips": "26111", "reporting": 38.17, "current_votes": 3780, "current_candidate_votes": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 1603, "Haley Stevens": 1999, "Mallory McMorrow": 178 }, "current_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 42.407407407407405, "Haley Stevens": 52.883597883597886, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.708994708994709 }, "estimated_remaining_votes": 7037.057104082069, "estimated_final_votes": 10817.057104082069, "turnout_disagreement_votes": 0.0, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 45.19162299853491, "Haley Stevens": 50.456543886001384, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.3518331154637 }, "remaining_sources": [ { "model": "v3", "remaining_votes": 7037.057104082069, "weight": 0.1342208488636769 }, { "model": "histgeo", "remaining_votes": 7037.057104082069, "weight": 0.05994207394479305 }, { "model": "latent", "remaining_votes": 7037.057104082069, "weight": 0.07672787409296966 }, { "model": "batchbias", "remaining_votes": 7037.057104082069, "weight": 0.045123489075924846 } ], "share_sources": [ { "model": "v0", "weight": 0.03630604611298715, "source": "statewide raw" }, { "model": "v1", "weight": 0.14599140026529184, "source": "county live" }, { "model": "v3", "weight": 0.15004242351696637, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "market", "weight": 0.0786646379365536, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "histgeo", "weight": 0.06573339512824654, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "latent", "weight": 0.08483492578364633, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "batchbias", "weight": 0.04883898267529022, "source": "county remaining" } ], "candidate_benchmarks": { "Abdul El-Sayed": { "opponent": "Haley Stevens", "expected_remaining_share_points": 45.19162299853491, "expected_final_county_share_points": 44.21868416376715, "current_county_share_points": 42.407407407407405, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 43.969561372027854, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 43.969561372027854, "required_final_county_share_points": 43.42366964478192, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 43.969561372027854, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": -282.8973314976655, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": false }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 43.969561372027854, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 43.969561372027854, "required_final_county_share_points": 43.42366964478192, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 43.969561372027854, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 44.61882285783133, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 44.61882285783133, "required_final_county_share_points": 43.84604794112612, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.024044322225107804, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999973, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 45.269339711514775, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 45.269339711514775, "required_final_county_share_points": 44.26924291943596, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.003259695682198218, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.9999999999999996, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": 1.222061626507056, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "ABOVE", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.0057320799277435315, "criticality_score": 0.004690499892486752, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -341.09662124221467, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -6.690546465690886, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 168.10943435850865, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Haley Stevens": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 50.456543886001384, "expected_final_county_share_points": 51.30467328225396, "current_county_share_points": 52.883597883597886, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 51.678605512508426, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 51.678605512508426, "required_final_county_share_points": 52.09968780123917, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 51.678605512508426, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 378.5454983822018, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 51.678605512508426, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 51.678605512508426, "required_final_county_share_points": 52.09968780123917, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 51.678605512508426, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 52.3266088404161, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 52.3266088404161, "required_final_county_share_points": 52.52124760056767, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.07865391656842785, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.999999999999999, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 52.97335124472781, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 52.97335124472781, "required_final_county_share_points": 52.94198710364889, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.10597932088248406, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -1.2220616265070419, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.0057320799277435315, "criticality_score": 0.0046904998924868066, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 436.74478812675096, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 771.1508629032746, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 945.9508437274742, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Mallory McMorrow": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 4.3518331154637, "expected_final_county_share_points": 4.4766425539788886, "current_county_share_points": 4.708994708994709, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 33.80975319683997, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 33.80975319683997, "required_final_county_share_points": 23.640548576246474, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 33.80975319683997, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 7903.770782826015, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 33.80975319683997, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 33.80975319683997, "required_final_county_share_points": 23.640548576246474, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 33.80975319683997, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 34.381231765300555, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 34.381231765300555, "required_final_county_share_points": 24.012325047547392, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.159018308558073, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999906, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 34.94952316265163, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 34.94952316265163, "required_final_county_share_points": 24.3820280986119, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.213613509684069, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.999999999999993, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -29.457920081376272, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "WELL BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.0057320799277435315, "criticality_score": 0.00019458535809415263, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 390.6400773562133, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 725.046152132737, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 899.8461329569366, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } } } }, { "cid": "26111", "county": "26111", "fips": null, "reporting": 0.0, "current_votes": 0, "current_candidate_votes": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 0, "Haley Stevens": 0, "Mallory McMorrow": 0 }, "current_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": null, "Haley Stevens": null, "Mallory McMorrow": null }, "estimated_remaining_votes": 7037.057104082069, "estimated_final_votes": 7037.057104082069, "turnout_disagreement_votes": 0.0, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 46.57792626117934, "Haley Stevens": 49.255133459520195, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.166940279300457 }, "remaining_sources": [ { "model": "market", "remaining_votes": 7037.057104082069, "weight": 0.1780093144963334 } ], "share_sources": [ { "model": "v0", "weight": 0.03630604611298715, "source": "statewide raw" }, { "model": "v3", "weight": 0.06301781787712588, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "market", "weight": 0.18729675699179427, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "histgeo", "weight": 0.02760802595386354, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "latent", "weight": 0.03563066882913146, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "batchbias", "weight": 0.020512372723621893, "source": "statewide fallback" } ], "candidate_benchmarks": { "Abdul El-Sayed": { "opponent": "Haley Stevens", "expected_remaining_share_points": 46.57792626117934, "expected_final_county_share_points": 46.577926261179336, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 45.349886369488424, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 45.349886369488424, "required_final_county_share_points": 45.34988636948842, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 45.349886369488424, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": -281.5110282350207, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": false }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 45.349886369488424, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 45.349886369488424, "required_final_county_share_points": 45.34988636948842, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 45.349886369488424, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 46.00253656009193, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 46.00253656009193, "required_final_county_share_points": 46.00253656009193, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.024044322225107804, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999973, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 46.65596544920646, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 46.65596544920646, "required_final_county_share_points": 46.65596544920646, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.003259695682198218, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.9999999999999996, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": 1.2280398916909192, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "ABOVE", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.0057320799277435315, "criticality_score": 0.0046676659011873674, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -339.7103179795702, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -5.304243203046454, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 169.49573762115307, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Haley Stevens": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 49.255133459520195, "expected_final_county_share_points": 49.255133459520195, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 50.4831733512111, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 50.4831733512111, "required_final_county_share_points": 50.4831733512111, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 50.4831733512111, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 377.3440879557202, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 50.4831733512111, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 50.4831733512111, "required_final_county_share_points": 50.4831733512111, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 50.4831733512111, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 51.13503977336495, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 51.13503977336495, "required_final_county_share_points": 51.13503977336495, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.07865391656842785, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.999999999999999, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 51.78611737335274, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 51.78611737335274, "required_final_county_share_points": 51.78611737335274, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.10597932088248406, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -1.228039891690905, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.0057320799277435315, "criticality_score": 0.004667665901187421, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 435.5433777002698, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 769.9494524767935, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 944.749433300993, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Mallory McMorrow": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 4.166940279300457, "expected_final_county_share_points": 4.166940279300458, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 33.809233454088464, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 33.809233454088464, "required_final_county_share_points": 33.809233454088464, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 33.809233454088464, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 7903.585889989853, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 33.809233454088464, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 33.809233454088464, "required_final_county_share_points": 33.809233454088464, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 33.809233454088464, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 34.410312809490804, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 34.410312809490804, "required_final_county_share_points": 34.410312809490804, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.159018308558073, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999906, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 35.00906747426667, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 35.00906747426667, "required_final_county_share_points": 35.00906747426667, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.213613509684069, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.999999999999993, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -29.64229317478801, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "WELL BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.0057320799277435315, "criticality_score": 0.00019337505009966305, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 390.45518452005, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 724.8612592965737, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 899.6612401207733, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } } } }, { "cid": "fips:26159", "county": "Van Buren", "fips": "26159", "reporting": 21.44, "current_votes": 1748, "current_candidate_votes": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 790, "Haley Stevens": 881, "Mallory McMorrow": 77 }, "current_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 45.19450800915332, "Haley Stevens": 50.400457665903886, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.4050343249427915 }, "estimated_remaining_votes": 6516.409355732237, "estimated_final_votes": 8264.409355732238, "turnout_disagreement_votes": 9.094947017729282e-13, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 47.25552132257438, "Haley Stevens": 48.62489070055419, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.119587976871421 }, "remaining_sources": [ { "model": "v3", "remaining_votes": 6516.409355732236, "weight": 0.1342208488636769 }, { "model": "histgeo", "remaining_votes": 6516.409355732236, "weight": 0.05994207394479305 }, { "model": "latent", "remaining_votes": 6516.409355732236, "weight": 0.07672787409296966 }, { "model": "batchbias", "remaining_votes": 6516.409355732236, "weight": 0.045123489075924846 } ], "share_sources": [ { "model": "v0", "weight": 0.03630604611298715, "source": "statewide raw" }, { "model": "v1", "weight": 0.14599140026529184, "source": "county live" }, { "model": "v3", "weight": 0.15004242351696637, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "market", "weight": 0.0786646379365536, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "histgeo", "weight": 0.06573339512824654, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "latent", "weight": 0.08483492578364633, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "batchbias", "weight": 0.04883898267529022, "source": "county remaining" } ], "candidate_benchmarks": { "Abdul El-Sayed": { "opponent": "Haley Stevens", "expected_remaining_share_points": 47.25552132257438, "expected_final_county_share_points": 46.819597699144325, "current_county_share_points": 45.19450800915332, "recent_batch_votes": 948, "recent_batch_share_points": 38.39662447257383, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 46.025735148483164, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 46.025735148483164, "required_final_county_share_points": 45.84992282155132, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 46.025735148483164, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": -307.0470680286294, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": false }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 46.025735148483164, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 46.025735148483164, "required_final_county_share_points": 45.84992282155132, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 46.025735148483164, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 46.67942067525063, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 46.67942067525063, "required_final_county_share_points": 46.36534773565963, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.024044322225107804, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999973, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 47.33364237533843, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 47.33364237533843, "required_final_county_share_points": 46.881195417408144, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.003259695682198218, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.9999999999999996, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": 1.2297861740912168, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -7.629110675909331, "status": "ABOVE", "recent_status": "WELL BELOW", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.0053079829702227885, "criticality_score": 0.004316183643994261, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -369.8963617104555, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -8.77192711914411, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 179.99421381862408, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Haley Stevens": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 48.62489070055419, "expected_final_county_share_points": 49.000439747296234, "current_county_share_points": 50.400457665903886, "recent_batch_votes": 948, "recent_batch_share_points": 56.118143459915615, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 49.854676874645406, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 49.854676874645406, "required_final_county_share_points": 49.970114624889234, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 49.854676874645406, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 402.9274800517579, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 49.854676874645406, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 49.854676874645406, "required_final_county_share_points": 49.970114624889234, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 49.854676874645406, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 50.50782041201335, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 50.50782041201335, "required_final_county_share_points": 50.48511218543341, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.07865391656842785, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.999999999999999, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 51.16041615278084, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 51.16041615278084, "required_final_county_share_points": 50.99967781348988, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.10597932088248406, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -1.2297861740912168, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": 6.2634665852702085, "status": "BELOW", "recent_status": "WELL ABOVE", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.0053079829702227885, "criticality_score": 0.004316183643994261, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 465.7767737335841, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 826.9012083248954, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1015.6673492626637, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Mallory McMorrow": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 4.119587976871421, "expected_final_county_share_points": 4.17996255355943, "current_county_share_points": 4.4050343249427915, "recent_batch_votes": 948, "recent_batch_share_points": 5.485232067510549, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 33.93232968573761, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 33.93232968573761, "required_final_county_share_points": 27.687030104241227, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 33.93232968573761, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 8534.685917313122, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 33.93232968573761, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 33.93232968573761, "required_final_county_share_points": 27.687030104241227, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 33.93232968573761, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 34.546229437520005, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 34.546229437520005, "required_final_county_share_points": 28.171084307488275, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.159018308558073, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999906, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 35.158130823795574, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 35.158130823795574, "required_final_county_share_points": 28.65356281825396, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.213613509684069, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.999999999999993, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -29.81274170886619, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -28.447097618227065, "status": "WELL BELOW", "recent_status": "WELL BELOW", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.0053079829702227885, "criticality_score": 0.0001780441068472483, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 421.2714710099013, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 782.3959056012127, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 971.162046538981, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } } } }, { "cid": "26159", "county": "26159", "fips": null, "reporting": 0.0, "current_votes": 0, "current_candidate_votes": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 0, "Haley Stevens": 0, "Mallory McMorrow": 0 }, "current_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": null, "Haley Stevens": null, "Mallory McMorrow": null }, "estimated_remaining_votes": 6516.409355732237, "estimated_final_votes": 6516.409355732237, "turnout_disagreement_votes": 9.094947017729282e-13, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 49.51528277225422, "Haley Stevens": 46.53771776940703, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.946999458338755 }, "remaining_sources": [ { "model": "market", "remaining_votes": 6516.409355732236, "weight": 0.1780093144963334 } ], "share_sources": [ { "model": "v0", "weight": 0.03630604611298715, "source": "statewide raw" }, { "model": "v3", "weight": 0.06301781787712588, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "market", "weight": 0.18729675699179427, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "histgeo", "weight": 0.02760802595386354, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "latent", "weight": 0.03563066882913146, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "batchbias", "weight": 0.020512372723621893, "source": "statewide fallback" } ], "candidate_benchmarks": { "Abdul El-Sayed": { "opponent": "Haley Stevens", "expected_remaining_share_points": 49.51528277225422, "expected_final_county_share_points": 49.51528277225422, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.28278378017898, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.28278378017898, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.282783780178974, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 48.28278378017898, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": -304.78730657894937, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": false }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.28278378017898, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.28278378017898, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.282783780178974, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 48.28278378017898, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.93826804224571, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.93826804224571, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.93826804224571, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.024044322225107804, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999973, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 49.593479420804734, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 49.593479420804734, "required_final_county_share_points": 49.593479420804734, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.003259695682198218, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.9999999999999996, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": 1.2324989920752358, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "ABOVE", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.0053079829702227885, "criticality_score": 0.00430668341666179, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -367.63660026077565, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -6.512165669464274, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 182.25397526830392, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Haley Stevens": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 46.53771776940703, "expected_final_county_share_points": 46.537717769407024, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 47.770216761482274, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 47.770216761482274, "required_final_county_share_points": 47.770216761482274, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 47.770216761482274, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 400.84030712061065, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 47.770216761482274, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 47.770216761482274, "required_final_county_share_points": 47.770216761482274, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 47.770216761482274, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.42596757275519, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.42596757275519, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.42596757275519, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.07865391656842785, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.999999999999999, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 49.08197857692001, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 49.08197857692001, "required_final_county_share_points": 49.081978576920015, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.10597932088248406, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -1.232498992075243, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.0053079829702227885, "criticality_score": 0.0043066834166617645, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 463.6896008024369, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 824.8140353937482, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1013.5801763315166, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Mallory McMorrow": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 3.946999458338755, "expected_final_county_share_points": 3.9469994583387544, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 34.22286820767025, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 34.22286820767025, "required_final_county_share_points": 34.22286820767025, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 34.22286820767025, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 8534.51332879459, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 34.22286820767025, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 34.22286820767025, "required_final_county_share_points": 34.22286820767025, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 34.22286820767025, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 34.87984921558222, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 34.87984921558222, "required_final_county_share_points": 34.87984921558222, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.159018308558073, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999906, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 35.53611265104667, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 35.53611265104667, "required_final_county_share_points": 35.53611265104667, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.213613509684069, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.999999999999993, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -30.275868749331497, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "WELL BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.0053079829702227885, "criticality_score": 0.00017532058333883453, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 421.09888249136867, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 782.22331708268, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 970.9894580204483, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } } } }, { "cid": "26073", "county": "26073", "fips": null, "reporting": 0.0, "current_votes": 0, "current_candidate_votes": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 0, "Haley Stevens": 0, "Mallory McMorrow": 0 }, "current_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": null, "Haley Stevens": null, "Mallory McMorrow": null }, "estimated_remaining_votes": 6240.3953919174755, "estimated_final_votes": 6240.3953919174755, "turnout_disagreement_votes": 0.0, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 48.29669880561634, "Haley Stevens": 47.412322142179555, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.290979052204104 }, "remaining_sources": [ { "model": "market", "remaining_votes": 6240.3953919174755, "weight": 0.1780093144963334 } ], "share_sources": [ { "model": "v0", "weight": 0.03630604611298715, "source": "statewide raw" }, { "model": "v3", "weight": 0.06301781787712588, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "market", "weight": 0.18729675699179427, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "histgeo", "weight": 0.02760802595386354, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "latent", "weight": 0.03563066882913146, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "batchbias", "weight": 0.020512372723621893, "source": "statewide fallback" } ], "candidate_benchmarks": { "Abdul El-Sayed": { "opponent": "Haley Stevens", "expected_remaining_share_points": 48.29669880561634, "expected_final_county_share_points": 48.29669880561634, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 47.06822390057636, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 47.06822390057636, "required_final_county_share_points": 47.06822390057636, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 47.06822390057636, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": -321.6767664973445, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": false }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 47.06822390057636, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 47.06822390057636, "required_final_county_share_points": 47.06822390057636, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 47.06822390057636, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 47.72139709974878, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 47.72139709974878, "required_final_county_share_points": 47.721397099748785, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.024044322225107804, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999973, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.37468647317589, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.37468647317589, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.37468647317589, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.003259695682198218, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.9999999999999996, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": 1.228474905039974, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "ABOVE", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.005083154028470737, "criticality_score": 0.004137776040533229, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -387.30589728605514, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -10.208855133528687, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 186.9064508045425, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Haley Stevens": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 47.412322142179555, "expected_final_county_share_points": 47.412322142179555, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.64079704721954, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.64079704721954, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.64079704721954, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 48.64079704721954, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 417.38578744514035, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.64079704721954, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.64079704721954, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.64079704721954, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 48.64079704721954, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 49.293847627020035, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 49.293847627020035, "required_final_county_share_points": 49.293847627020035, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.07865391656842785, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.999999999999999, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 49.946769135669626, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 49.946769135669626, "required_final_county_share_points": 49.946769135669626, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.10597932088248406, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -1.2284749050399881, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.005083154028470737, "criticality_score": 0.004137776040533181, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 483.01491823385106, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 860.1119603863774, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1057.2272663244487, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Mallory McMorrow": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 4.290979052204104, "expected_final_county_share_points": 4.290979052204105, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 34.95620564890421, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 34.95620564890421, "required_final_county_share_points": 34.95620564890421, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 34.95620564890421, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 8912.166000910478, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 34.95620564890421, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 34.95620564890421, "required_final_county_share_points": 34.95620564890421, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 34.95620564890421, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 35.58058939785999, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 35.58058939785999, "required_final_county_share_points": 35.58058939785999, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.159018308558073, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999906, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 36.20265998323656, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 36.20265998323656, "required_final_county_share_points": 36.20265998323656, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.213613509684069, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.999999999999993, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -30.665226596700105, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "WELL BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.005083154028470737, "criticality_score": 0.00016576280669055083, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 439.8935751438756, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 816.990617296402, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1014.1059232344732, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } } } }, { "cid": "fips:26073", "county": "Isabella", "fips": "26073", "reporting": 23.48, "current_votes": 1752, "current_candidate_votes": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 846, "Haley Stevens": 813, "Mallory McMorrow": 93 }, "current_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 48.28767123287671, "Haley Stevens": 46.4041095890411, "Mallory McMorrow": 5.308219178082192 }, "estimated_remaining_votes": 6240.395391917475, "estimated_final_votes": 7992.395391917475, "turnout_disagreement_votes": 9.094947017729282e-13, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 48.8925809522907, "Haley Stevens": 46.526053035113435, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.581366012595873 }, "remaining_sources": [ { "model": "v3", "remaining_votes": 6240.3953919174755, "weight": 0.1342208488636769 }, { "model": "histgeo", "remaining_votes": 6240.3953919174755, "weight": 0.05994207394479305 }, { "model": "latent", "remaining_votes": 6240.3953919174755, "weight": 0.07672787409296966 }, { "model": "batchbias", "remaining_votes": 6240.3953919174755, "weight": 0.045123489075924846 } ], "share_sources": [ { "model": "v0", "weight": 0.03630604611298715, "source": "statewide raw" }, { "model": "v1", "weight": 0.14599140026529184, "source": "county live" }, { "model": "v3", "weight": 0.15004242351696637, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "market", "weight": 0.0786646379365536, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "histgeo", "weight": 0.06573339512824654, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "latent", "weight": 0.08483492578364633, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "batchbias", "weight": 0.04883898267529022, "source": "county remaining" } ], "candidate_benchmarks": { "Abdul El-Sayed": { "opponent": "Haley Stevens", "expected_remaining_share_points": 48.8925809522907, "expected_final_county_share_points": 48.759979676147, "current_county_share_points": 48.28767123287671, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 47.66799292688369, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 47.66799292688369, "required_final_county_share_points": 47.80383160088094, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 47.66799292688369, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": -321.0808843506707, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": false }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 47.66799292688369, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 47.66799292688369, "required_final_county_share_points": 47.80383160088094, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 47.66799292688369, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.31922133349791, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.31922133349791, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.3123052872342, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.024044322225107804, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999973, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.97028883887759, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.97028883887759, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.82065334325097, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.003259695682198218, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.9999999999999996, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": 1.2245880254070087, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "ABOVE", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.005083154028470737, "criticality_score": 0.004150909467517683, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -386.7100151393808, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -9.612972986854324, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 187.50233295121686, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Haley Stevens": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 46.526053035113435, "expected_final_county_share_points": 46.499322010552916, "current_county_share_points": 46.4041095890411, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 47.750641060520444, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 47.750641060520444, "required_final_county_share_points": 47.45547008581897, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 47.750641060520444, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 416.4995183380749, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 47.750641060520444, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 47.750641060520444, "required_final_county_share_points": 47.45547008581897, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 47.750641060520444, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.40202396708471, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.40202396708471, "required_final_county_share_points": 47.96406440443942, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.07865391656842785, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.999999999999999, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 49.05355495472061, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 49.05355495472061, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.472774343520534, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.10597932088248406, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -1.2245880254070087, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.005083154028470737, "criticality_score": 0.004150909467517683, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 482.1286491267849, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 859.2256912793114, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1056.3409972173824, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Mallory McMorrow": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 4.581366012595873, "expected_final_county_share_points": 4.740698313300094, "current_county_share_points": 5.308219178082192, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 36.1739198229107, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 36.1739198229107, "required_final_county_share_points": 29.407899765341217, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 36.1739198229107, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 8912.45638787087, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 36.1739198229107, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 36.1739198229107, "required_final_county_share_points": 29.407899765341217, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 36.1739198229107, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 36.79701005774318, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 36.79701005774318, "required_final_county_share_points": 29.894403402802595, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.159018308558073, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999906, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 37.41701679916838, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 37.41701679916838, "required_final_county_share_points": 30.37849947443342, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.213613509684069, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.999999999999993, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -31.592553810314826, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "WELL BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.005083154028470737, "criticality_score": 0.00016089721834425144, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 440.1839621042674, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 817.2810042567937, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1014.3963101948649, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } } } }, { "cid": "fips:26089", "county": "Leelanau", "fips": "26089", "reporting": 15.83, "current_votes": 903, "current_candidate_votes": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 495, "Haley Stevens": 382, "Mallory McMorrow": 26 }, "current_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 54.81727574750831, "Haley Stevens": 42.30343300110742, "Mallory McMorrow": 2.8792912513842746 }, "estimated_remaining_votes": 5496.342097041341, "estimated_final_votes": 6399.342097041341, "turnout_disagreement_votes": 0.0, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 51.92963635912877, "Haley Stevens": 44.689655617645144, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.3807080232260818 }, "remaining_sources": [ { "model": "v3", "remaining_votes": 5496.342097041341, "weight": 0.1342208488636769 }, { "model": "histgeo", "remaining_votes": 5496.342097041341, "weight": 0.05994207394479305 }, { "model": "latent", "remaining_votes": 5496.342097041341, "weight": 0.07672787409296966 }, { "model": "batchbias", "remaining_votes": 5496.342097041341, "weight": 0.045123489075924846 } ], "share_sources": [ { "model": "v0", "weight": 0.03630604611298715, "source": "statewide raw" }, { "model": "v1", "weight": 0.14599140026529184, "source": "county live" }, { "model": "v3", "weight": 0.15004242351696637, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "market", "weight": 0.0786646379365536, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "histgeo", "weight": 0.06573339512824654, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "latent", "weight": 0.08483492578364633, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "batchbias", "weight": 0.04883898267529022, "source": "county remaining" } ], "candidate_benchmarks": { "Abdul El-Sayed": { "opponent": "Haley Stevens", "expected_remaining_share_points": 51.92963635912877, "expected_final_county_share_points": 52.337106115888965, "current_county_share_points": 54.81727574750831, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 50.69425226719954, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 50.69425226719954, "required_final_county_share_points": 51.27604491810972, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 50.69425226719954, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": -368.1280433204432, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": false }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 50.69425226719954, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 50.69425226719954, "required_final_county_share_points": 51.27604491810972, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 50.69425226719954, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 51.351618242492705, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 51.351618242492705, "required_final_county_share_points": 51.840651127369405, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.024044322225107804, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999973, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 52.007921993383974, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 52.007921993383974, "required_final_county_share_points": 52.404345000859564, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.003259695682198218, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.9999999999999996, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": 1.2353840919292338, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "ABOVE", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.004477080652391851, "criticality_score": 0.0036240394235611626, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -442.64155032537974, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -14.495957746440205, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 209.30333005889648, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Haley Stevens": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 44.689655617645144, "expected_final_county_share_points": 44.35293990686453, "current_county_share_points": 42.30343300110742, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 45.92503970957438, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 45.92503970957438, "required_final_county_share_points": 45.41400110464378, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 45.92503970957438, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 464.74733529721715, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 45.92503970957438, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 45.92503970957438, "required_final_county_share_points": 45.41400110464378, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 45.92503970957438, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 46.58346395490396, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 46.58346395490396, "required_final_county_share_points": 45.97951625330114, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.07865391656842785, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.999999999999999, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 47.24294247049858, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 47.24294247049858, "required_final_county_share_points": 46.54593690598556, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.10597932088248406, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -1.2353840919292338, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.004477080652391851, "criticality_score": 0.0036240394235611626, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 539.2608423021536, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 967.4064348810931, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1191.20572268643, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Mallory McMorrow": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 3.3807080232260818, "expected_final_county_share_points": 3.3099539772464976, "current_county_share_points": 2.8792912513842746, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 32.759951700275636, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 32.759951700275636, "required_final_county_share_points": 28.54354382956283, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 32.759951700275636, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 10117.136594525324, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 32.759951700275636, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 32.759951700275636, "required_final_county_share_points": 28.54354382956283, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 32.759951700275636, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 33.47427160480194, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 33.47427160480194, "required_final_county_share_points": 29.157067298454685, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.159018308558073, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999906, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 34.191469734079504, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 34.191469734079504, "required_final_county_share_points": 29.77306285082406, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.213613509684069, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.999999999999993, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -29.379243677049555, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "WELL BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.004477080652391851, "criticality_score": 0.00015238924124820995, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 497.9518947077346, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 926.0974872866741, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1149.8967750920108, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } } } }, { "cid": "26089", "county": "26089", "fips": null, "reporting": 0.0, "current_votes": 0, "current_candidate_votes": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 0, "Haley Stevens": 0, "Mallory McMorrow": 0 }, "current_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": null, "Haley Stevens": null, "Mallory McMorrow": null }, "estimated_remaining_votes": 5496.342097041341, "estimated_final_votes": 5496.342097041341, "turnout_disagreement_votes": 0.0, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 49.77721291445259, "Haley Stevens": 46.404587803541965, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.8181992820054464 }, "remaining_sources": [ { "model": "market", "remaining_votes": 5496.342097041341, "weight": 0.1780093144963334 } ], "share_sources": [ { "model": "v0", "weight": 0.03630604611298715, "source": "statewide raw" }, { "model": "v3", "weight": 0.06301781787712588, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "market", "weight": 0.18729675699179427, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "histgeo", "weight": 0.02760802595386354, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "latent", "weight": 0.03563066882913146, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "batchbias", "weight": 0.020512372723621893, "source": "statewide fallback" } ], "candidate_benchmarks": { "Abdul El-Sayed": { "opponent": "Haley Stevens", "expected_remaining_share_points": 49.77721291445259, "expected_final_county_share_points": 49.7772129144526, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.54326417857347, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.54326417857347, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.54326417857347, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 48.54326417857347, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": -370.2804667651199, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": false }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.54326417857347, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.54326417857347, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.54326417857347, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 48.54326417857347, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 49.19955155345625, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 49.19955155345625, "required_final_county_share_points": 49.19955155345625, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.024044322225107804, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999973, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 49.85549284741266, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 49.85549284741266, "required_final_county_share_points": 49.85549284741266, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.003259695682198218, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.9999999999999996, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": 1.2339487358791175, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "ABOVE", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.004477080652391851, "criticality_score": 0.0036282549851653187, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -444.7939737700559, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -16.648381191116385, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 207.15090661422028, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Haley Stevens": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 46.404587803541965, "expected_final_county_share_points": 46.404587803541965, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 47.638536539421075, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 47.638536539421075, "required_final_county_share_points": 47.63853653942107, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 47.638536539421075, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 466.46226748311454, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 47.638536539421075, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 47.638536539421075, "required_final_county_share_points": 47.63853653942107, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 47.638536539421075, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.29516375532679, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.29516375532679, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.29516375532678, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.07865391656842785, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.999999999999999, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.95212454755546, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.95212454755546, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.95212454755546, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.10597932088248406, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -1.2339487358791104, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.004477080652391851, "criticality_score": 0.0036282549851653395, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 540.9757744880504, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 969.1213670669899, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1192.9206548723266, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Mallory McMorrow": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 3.8181992820054464, "expected_final_county_share_points": 3.818199282005447, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 33.83082315675397, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 33.83082315675397, "required_final_county_share_points": 33.83082315675397, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 33.83082315675397, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 10117.574085784105, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 33.83082315675397, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 33.83082315675397, "required_final_county_share_points": 33.83082315675397, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 33.83082315675397, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 34.49666511029526, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 34.49666511029526, "required_final_county_share_points": 34.49666511029526, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.159018308558073, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999906, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 35.16241197253432, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 35.16241197253432, "required_final_county_share_points": 35.16241197253432, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.213613509684069, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.999999999999993, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -30.012623874748527, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "WELL BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.004477080652391851, "criticality_score": 0.00014917325026548897, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 498.38938596651394, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 926.5349785454534, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1150.3342663507901, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } } } }, { "cid": "name:gd_traverse", "county": "name:gd_traverse", "fips": null, "reporting": 0.0, "current_votes": 0, "current_candidate_votes": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 0, "Haley Stevens": 0, "Mallory McMorrow": 0 }, "current_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": null, "Haley Stevens": null, "Mallory McMorrow": null }, "estimated_remaining_votes": 5156.92134952329, "estimated_final_votes": 5156.92134952329, "turnout_disagreement_votes": 0.0, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 49.53409718759454, "Haley Stevens": 46.64825171952558, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.817651092879882 }, "remaining_sources": [ { "model": "v3", "remaining_votes": 5156.92134952329, "weight": 0.1342208488636769 }, { "model": "histgeo", "remaining_votes": 5156.92134952329, "weight": 0.05994207394479305 }, { "model": "latent", "remaining_votes": 5156.92134952329, "weight": 0.07672787409296966 } ], "share_sources": [ { "model": "v0", "weight": 0.03630604611298715, "source": "statewide raw" }, { "model": "v3", "weight": 0.15004242351696637, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "market", "weight": 0.0786646379365536, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "histgeo", "weight": 0.06573339512824654, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "latent", "weight": 0.08483492578364633, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "batchbias", "weight": 0.020512372723621893, "source": "statewide fallback" } ], "candidate_benchmarks": { "Abdul El-Sayed": { "opponent": "Haley Stevens", "expected_remaining_share_points": 49.53409718759454, "expected_final_county_share_points": 49.53409718759453, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.299895018238345, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.299895018238345, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.299895018238345, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 48.299895018238345, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": -398.17114233904005, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": false }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.299895018238345, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.299895018238345, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.299895018238345, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 48.299895018238345, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.95627723054584, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.95627723054584, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.95627723054583, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.024044322225107804, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999973, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 49.61240402426675, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 49.61240402426675, "required_final_county_share_points": 49.61240402426675, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.003259695682198218, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.9999999999999996, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": 1.2342021693561946, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "ABOVE", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.0042006033089325625, "criticality_score": 0.0034034969417723127, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -477.5890154441389, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -21.263528848949505, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 217.26588889484682, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Haley Stevens": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 46.64825171952558, "expected_final_county_share_points": 46.648251719525575, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 47.88245388888177, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 47.88245388888177, "required_final_county_share_points": 47.88245388888177, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 47.88245388888177, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 494.3534912461601, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 47.88245388888177, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 47.88245388888177, "required_final_county_share_points": 47.88245388888177, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 47.88245388888177, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.53908515549113, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.53908515549113, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.53908515549112, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.07865391656842785, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.999999999999999, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 49.195959090759175, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 49.195959090759175, "required_final_county_share_points": 49.195959090759175, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.10597932088248406, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -1.2342021693561875, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.0042006033089325625, "criticality_score": 0.003403496941772332, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 573.771364351259, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1030.0968509464483, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1268.6262686902448, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Mallory McMorrow": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 3.817651092879882, "expected_final_county_share_points": 3.8176510928798817, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 33.736001006196595, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 33.736001006196595, "required_final_county_share_points": 33.736001006196595, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 33.736001006196595, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 10783.245621876225, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 33.736001006196595, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 33.736001006196595, "required_final_county_share_points": 33.736001006196595, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 33.736001006196595, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 34.397947057536555, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 34.397947057536555, "required_final_county_share_points": 34.397947057536555, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.159018308558073, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999906, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 35.059720483369155, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 35.059720483369155, "required_final_county_share_points": 35.059720483369155, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.213613509684069, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.999999999999993, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -29.918349913316714, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "WELL BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.0042006033089325625, "criticality_score": 0.00014040223879669466, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 530.9407637246132, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 987.2662503198026, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1225.7956680635991, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } } } }, { "cid": "fips:26093", "county": "Livingston", "fips": "26093", "reporting": 80.73, "current_votes": 21490, "current_candidate_votes": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 10902, "Haley Stevens": 9766, "Mallory McMorrow": 822 }, "current_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 50.73057235923686, "Haley Stevens": 45.44439274080968, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.825034899953467 }, "estimated_remaining_votes": 5033.181154902108, "estimated_final_votes": 26523.181154902108, "turnout_disagreement_votes": 0.0, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 50.37111830190255, "Haley Stevens": 45.82128265732378, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.8075990407736717 }, "remaining_sources": [ { "model": "v3", "remaining_votes": 5033.181154902108, "weight": 0.1342208488636769 }, { "model": "histgeo", "remaining_votes": 5033.181154902108, "weight": 0.05994207394479305 }, { "model": "latent", "remaining_votes": 5033.181154902108, "weight": 0.07672787409296966 }, { "model": "batchbias", "remaining_votes": 5033.181154902108, "weight": 0.045123489075924846 } ], "share_sources": [ { "model": "v0", "weight": 0.03630604611298715, "source": "statewide raw" }, { "model": "v1", "weight": 0.14599140026529184, "source": "county live" }, { "model": "v3", "weight": 0.15004242351696637, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "market", "weight": 0.0786646379365536, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "histgeo", "weight": 0.06573339512824654, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "latent", "weight": 0.08483492578364633, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "batchbias", "weight": 0.04883898267529022, "source": "county remaining" } ], "candidate_benchmarks": { "Abdul El-Sayed": { "opponent": "Haley Stevens", "expected_remaining_share_points": 50.37111830190255, "expected_final_county_share_points": 50.66236042881788, "current_county_share_points": 50.73057235923686, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 49.137891042489976, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 49.137891042489976, "required_final_county_share_points": 50.42833660771075, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 49.137891042489976, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": -408.34090436385964, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": false }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 49.137891042489976, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 49.137891042489976, "required_final_county_share_points": 50.42833660771075, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 49.137891042489976, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 49.79389121493866, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 49.79389121493866, "required_final_county_share_points": 50.55282271992699, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.024044322225107804, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999973, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 50.44932631704384, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 50.44932631704384, "required_final_county_share_points": 50.67720160136322, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.003259695682198218, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.9999999999999996, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": 1.2332272594125726, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "ABOVE", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.0040998099410015695, "criticality_score": 0.0033244561452156402, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -489.71125697883093, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -22.1670594364111, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 222.22657731045996, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Haley Stevens": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 45.82128265732378, "expected_final_county_share_points": 45.51591339341137, "current_county_share_points": 45.44439274080968, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 47.05450991673635, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 47.05450991673635, "required_final_county_share_points": 45.749937214518496, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 47.05450991673635, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 504.5333053230859, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 47.05450991673635, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 47.05450991673635, "required_final_county_share_points": 45.749937214518496, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 47.05450991673635, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 47.711069376303136, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 47.711069376303136, "required_final_county_share_points": 45.87452946005891, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.07865391656842785, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.999999999999999, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.368182307201266, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.368182307201266, "required_final_county_share_points": 45.999226735288566, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.10597932088248406, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -1.2332272594125726, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.0040998099410015695, "criticality_score": 0.0033244561452156402, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 585.9036579380572, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1053.447855480477, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1297.841492227348, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Mallory McMorrow": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 3.8075990407736717, "expected_final_county_share_points": 3.8217261777707567, "current_county_share_points": 3.825034899953467, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 34.01402356046048, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 34.01402356046048, "required_final_county_share_points": 9.553859354464047, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 34.01402356046048, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 11048.246598427895, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 34.01402356046048, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 34.01402356046048, "required_final_county_share_points": 9.553859354464047, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 34.01402356046048, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 34.6897929092323, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 34.6897929092323, "required_final_county_share_points": 9.682096971642563, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.159018308558073, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999906, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 35.36571208511669, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 35.36571208511669, "required_final_county_share_points": 9.810363020817796, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.213613509684069, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.999999999999993, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -30.20642451968681, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "WELL BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.0040998099410015695, "criticality_score": 0.0001357264226465979, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 543.8899743215071, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1011.4341718639268, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1255.827808610798, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } } } }, { "cid": "26093", "county": "26093", "fips": null, "reporting": 0.0, "current_votes": 0, "current_candidate_votes": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 0, "Haley Stevens": 0, "Mallory McMorrow": 0 }, "current_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": null, "Haley Stevens": null, "Mallory McMorrow": null }, "estimated_remaining_votes": 5033.181154902108, "estimated_final_votes": 5033.181154902108, "turnout_disagreement_votes": 0.0, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 49.89261988260084, "Haley Stevens": 46.35073676032594, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.7566433570732234 }, "remaining_sources": [ { "model": "market", "remaining_votes": 5033.181154902108, "weight": 0.1780093144963334 } ], "share_sources": [ { "model": "v0", "weight": 0.03630604611298715, "source": "statewide raw" }, { "model": "v3", "weight": 0.06301781787712588, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "market", "weight": 0.18729675699179427, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "histgeo", "weight": 0.02760802595386354, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "latent", "weight": 0.03563066882913146, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "batchbias", "weight": 0.020512372723621893, "source": "statewide fallback" } ], "candidate_benchmarks": { "Abdul El-Sayed": { "opponent": "Haley Stevens", "expected_remaining_share_points": 49.89261988260084, "expected_final_county_share_points": 49.89261988260085, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.65798061049089, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.65798061049089, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.65798061049089, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 48.65798061049089, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": -408.81940278316034, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": false }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.65798061049089, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.65798061049089, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.65798061049089, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 48.65798061049089, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 49.314648965464855, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 49.314648965464855, "required_final_county_share_points": 49.314648965464855, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.024044322225107804, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999973, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 49.97093990702525, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 49.97093990702525, "required_final_county_share_points": 49.97093990702525, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.003259695682198218, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.9999999999999996, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": 1.234639272109952, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "ABOVE", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.0040998099410015695, "criticality_score": 0.003320654083840334, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -490.1897553981326, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -22.64555785571281, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 221.74807889115823, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Haley Stevens": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 46.35073676032594, "expected_final_county_share_points": 46.350736760325944, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 47.5853760324359, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 47.5853760324359, "required_final_county_share_points": 47.585376032435896, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 47.5853760324359, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 505.0627594260872, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 47.5853760324359, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 47.5853760324359, "required_final_county_share_points": 47.585376032435896, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 47.5853760324359, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.24241560836144, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.24241560836144, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.24241560836144, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.07865391656842785, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.999999999999999, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.89982018680944, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.89982018680944, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.89982018680944, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.10597932088248406, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -1.2346392721099662, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.0040998099410015695, "criticality_score": 0.003320654083840296, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 586.4331120410594, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1053.9773095834792, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1298.37094633035, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Mallory McMorrow": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 3.7566433570732234, "expected_final_county_share_points": 3.7566433570732234, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 33.63235898498036, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 33.63235898498036, "required_final_county_share_points": 33.63235898498036, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 33.63235898498036, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 11048.195642744196, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 33.63235898498036, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 33.63235898498036, "required_final_county_share_points": 33.63235898498036, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 33.63235898498036, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 34.302227148997034, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 34.302227148997034, "required_final_county_share_points": 34.302227148997034, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.159018308558073, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999906, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 34.9723095336476, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 34.9723095336476, "required_final_county_share_points": 34.9723095336476, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.213613509684069, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.999999999999993, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -29.875715627907134, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "WELL BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.0040998099410015695, "criticality_score": 0.0001372288447267153, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 543.8390186378067, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1011.3832161802264, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1255.7768529270975, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } } } }, { "cid": "fips:26155", "county": "Shiawassee", "fips": "26155", "reporting": 44.43, "current_votes": 3588, "current_candidate_votes": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 1423, "Haley Stevens": 1922, "Mallory McMorrow": 243 }, "current_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 39.659977703455965, "Haley Stevens": 53.567447045707915, "Mallory McMorrow": 6.77257525083612 }, "estimated_remaining_votes": 4949.64208510183, "estimated_final_votes": 8537.64208510183, "turnout_disagreement_votes": 0.0, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 43.429889037955434, "Haley Stevens": 50.95457332924801, "Mallory McMorrow": 5.61553763279655 }, "remaining_sources": [ { "model": "v3", "remaining_votes": 4949.64208510183, "weight": 0.1342208488636769 }, { "model": "histgeo", "remaining_votes": 4949.64208510183, "weight": 0.05994207394479305 }, { "model": "latent", "remaining_votes": 4949.64208510183, "weight": 0.07672787409296966 }, { "model": "batchbias", "remaining_votes": 4949.64208510183, "weight": 0.045123489075924846 } ], "share_sources": [ { "model": "v0", "weight": 0.03630604611298715, "source": "statewide raw" }, { "model": "v1", "weight": 0.14599140026529184, "source": "county live" }, { "model": "v3", "weight": 0.15004242351696637, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "market", "weight": 0.0786646379365536, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "histgeo", "weight": 0.06573339512824654, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "latent", "weight": 0.08483492578364633, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "batchbias", "weight": 0.04883898267529022, "source": "county remaining" } ], "candidate_benchmarks": { "Abdul El-Sayed": { "opponent": "Haley Stevens", "expected_remaining_share_points": 43.429889037955434, "expected_final_county_share_points": 41.84555911016568, "current_county_share_points": 39.659977703455965, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 42.22875609709287, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 42.22875609709287, "required_final_county_share_points": 41.14921015402125, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 42.22875609709287, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": -423.0241834610745, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": false }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 42.22875609709287, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 42.22875609709287, "required_final_county_share_points": 41.14921015402125, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 42.22875609709287, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 42.866709368289044, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 42.866709368289044, "required_final_county_share_points": 41.519059384987614, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.024044322225107804, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999973, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 43.506326188737916, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 43.506326188737916, "required_final_county_share_points": 41.889873047738504, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.003259695682198218, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.9999999999999996, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": 1.2011329408625642, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "ABOVE", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.004031762656731734, "criticality_score": 0.0033566331582217885, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -505.76788862354414, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -30.33257356562264, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 218.1858901339675, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Haley Stevens": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 50.95457332924801, "expected_final_county_share_points": 52.05265062051997, "current_county_share_points": 53.567447045707915, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 52.15570627011058, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 52.15570627011058, "required_final_county_share_points": 52.74899957666441, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 52.15570627011058, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 517.4086458282779, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 52.15570627011058, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 52.15570627011058, "required_final_county_share_points": 52.74899957666441, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 52.15570627011058, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 52.791996171337395, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 52.791996171337395, "required_final_county_share_points": 53.11788447978459, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.07865391656842785, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.999999999999999, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 53.42662290267446, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 53.42662290267446, "required_final_county_share_points": 53.48580517105342, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.10597932088248406, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -1.2011329408625713, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.004031762656731734, "criticality_score": 0.003356633158221769, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 600.1523509907475, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1075.587666048669, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1324.1061297482593, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Mallory McMorrow": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 5.61553763279655, "expected_final_county_share_points": 6.101790269314338, "current_county_share_points": 6.77257525083612, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 36.42227747418374, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 36.42227747418374, "required_final_county_share_points": 23.96179593642876, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 36.42227747418374, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 11236.460370939063, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 36.42227747418374, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 36.42227747418374, "required_final_county_share_points": 23.96179593642876, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 36.42227747418374, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 36.91962544996733, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 36.91962544996733, "required_final_county_share_points": 24.25013016821558, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.159018308558073, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999906, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 37.41105938436123, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 37.41105938436123, "required_final_county_share_points": 24.53503577323829, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.213613509684069, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.999999999999993, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -30.806739841387188, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "WELL BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.004031762656731734, "criticality_score": 0.00013087274659668072, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 554.8133152942961, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1030.2486303522176, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1278.7670940518078, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } } } }, { "cid": "26155", "county": "26155", "fips": null, "reporting": 0.0, "current_votes": 0, "current_candidate_votes": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 0, "Haley Stevens": 0, "Mallory McMorrow": 0 }, "current_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": null, "Haley Stevens": null, "Mallory McMorrow": null }, "estimated_remaining_votes": 4949.64208510183, "estimated_final_votes": 4949.64208510183, "turnout_disagreement_votes": 0.0, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 45.55019957020254, "Haley Stevens": 49.57893414963119, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.870866280166271 }, "remaining_sources": [ { "model": "market", "remaining_votes": 4949.64208510183, "weight": 0.1780093144963334 } ], "share_sources": [ { "model": "v0", "weight": 0.03630604611298715, "source": "statewide raw" }, { "model": "v3", "weight": 0.06301781787712588, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "market", "weight": 0.18729675699179427, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "histgeo", "weight": 0.02760802595386354, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "latent", "weight": 0.03563066882913146, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "batchbias", "weight": 0.020512372723621893, "source": "statewide fallback" } ], "candidate_benchmarks": { "Abdul El-Sayed": { "opponent": "Haley Stevens", "expected_remaining_share_points": 45.55019957020254, "expected_final_county_share_points": 45.55019957020254, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 44.33286605644045, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 44.33286605644045, "required_final_county_share_points": 44.332866056440444, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 44.33286605644045, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": -420.90387292882684, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": false }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 44.33286605644045, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 44.33286605644045, "required_final_county_share_points": 44.332866056440444, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 44.33286605644045, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 44.97971422163487, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 44.97971422163487, "required_final_county_share_points": 44.97971422163488, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.024044322225107804, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999973, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 45.62758880968153, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 45.62758880968153, "required_final_county_share_points": 45.62758880968153, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.003259695682198218, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.9999999999999996, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": 1.2173335137620853, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "ABOVE", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.004031762656731734, "criticality_score": 0.0033119622610831186, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -503.647578091297, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -28.212263033375535, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 220.30620066621458, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Haley Stevens": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 49.57893414963119, "expected_final_county_share_points": 49.57893414963119, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 50.79626766339326, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 50.79626766339326, "required_final_county_share_points": 50.79626766339326, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 50.79626766339326, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 516.0330066486606, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 50.79626766339326, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 50.79626766339326, "required_final_county_share_points": 50.79626766339326, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 50.79626766339326, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 51.44208544315815, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 51.44208544315815, "required_final_county_share_points": 51.44208544315815, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.07865391656842785, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.999999999999999, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 52.08686889657379, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 52.08686889657379, "required_final_county_share_points": 52.08686889657379, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.10597932088248406, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -1.217333513762071, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.004031762656731734, "criticality_score": 0.003311962261083157, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 598.7767118111308, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1074.2120268690521, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1322.7304905686424, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Mallory McMorrow": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 4.870866280166271, "expected_final_county_share_points": 4.870866280166271, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 35.531045222648785, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 35.531045222648785, "required_final_county_share_points": 35.531045222648785, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 35.531045222648785, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 11235.715699586435, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 35.531045222648785, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 35.531045222648785, "required_final_county_share_points": 35.531045222648785, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 35.531045222648785, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 36.08886038573337, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 36.08886038573337, "required_final_county_share_points": 36.08886038573337, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.159018308558073, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999906, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 36.642256909740425, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 36.642256909740425, "required_final_county_share_points": 36.642256909740425, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.213613509684069, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.999999999999993, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -30.660178942482514, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "WELL BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.004031762656731734, "criticality_score": 0.00013149834070750818, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 554.0686439416659, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1029.5039589995872, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1278.0224226991775, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } } } }, { "cid": "26101", "county": "26101", "fips": null, "reporting": 0.0, "current_votes": 0, "current_candidate_votes": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 0, "Haley Stevens": 0, "Mallory McMorrow": 0 }, "current_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": null, "Haley Stevens": null, "Mallory McMorrow": null }, "estimated_remaining_votes": 3791.242696224088, "estimated_final_votes": 3791.242696224088, "turnout_disagreement_votes": 0.0, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 48.27100217759222, "Haley Stevens": 47.573041127080906, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.155956695326873 }, "remaining_sources": [ { "model": "market", "remaining_votes": 3791.242696224088, "weight": 0.1780093144963334 } ], "share_sources": [ { "model": "v0", "weight": 0.03630604611298715, "source": "statewide raw" }, { "model": "v3", "weight": 0.06301781787712588, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "market", "weight": 0.18729675699179427, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "histgeo", "weight": 0.02760802595386354, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "latent", "weight": 0.03563066882913146, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "batchbias", "weight": 0.020512372723621893, "source": "statewide fallback" } ], "candidate_benchmarks": { "Abdul El-Sayed": { "opponent": "Haley Stevens", "expected_remaining_share_points": 48.27100217759222, "expected_final_county_share_points": 48.27100217759222, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 47.04081622790371, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 47.04081622790371, "required_final_county_share_points": 47.04081622790371, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 47.04081622790371, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": -560.7062891753956, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": false }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 47.04081622790371, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 47.04081622790371, "required_final_county_share_points": 47.04081622790371, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 47.04081622790371, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 47.694883782522766, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 47.694883782522766, "required_final_county_share_points": 47.694883782522766, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.024044322225107804, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999973, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.34910264295541, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.34910264295541, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.34910264295541, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.003259695682198218, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.9999999999999996, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": 1.2301859496885115, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "ABOVE", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.0030881810164115615, "criticality_score": 0.002510336764286328, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -668.7320100708972, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -48.029292595686556, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 276.42301642621965, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Haley Stevens": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 47.573041127080906, "expected_final_county_share_points": 47.573041127080906, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.8032270767694, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.8032270767694, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.8032270767694, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 48.8032270767694, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 656.5503324800687, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.8032270767694, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.8032270767694, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.8032270767694, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 48.8032270767694, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 49.45713689360831, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 49.45713689360831, "required_final_county_share_points": 49.45713689360831, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.07865391656842785, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.999999999999999, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 50.11088253540306, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 50.11088253540306, "required_final_county_share_points": 50.11088253540306, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.10597932088248406, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -1.2301859496884973, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.0030881810164115615, "criticality_score": 0.002510336764286357, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 764.5760533755704, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1385.2787708507808, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1709.7310798726871, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Mallory McMorrow": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 4.155956695326873, "expected_final_county_share_points": 4.155956695326873, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 34.480137780876035, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 34.480137780876035, "required_final_county_share_points": 34.480137780876035, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 34.480137780876035, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 14666.54153637479, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 34.480137780876035, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 34.480137780876035, "required_final_county_share_points": 34.480137780876035, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 34.480137780876035, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 35.10919125118339, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 35.10919125118339, "required_final_county_share_points": 35.10919125118339, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.159018308558073, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999906, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 35.73638403953086, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 35.73638403953086, "required_final_county_share_points": 35.73638403953086, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.213613509684069, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.999999999999993, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -30.324181085549164, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "WELL BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.0030881810164115615, "criticality_score": 0.00010183889245679313, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 721.1589689438163, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1341.861686419027, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1666.3139954409332, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } } } }, { "cid": "fips:26101", "county": "Manistee", "fips": "26101", "reporting": 0.0, "current_votes": 0, "current_candidate_votes": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 0, "Haley Stevens": 0, "Mallory McMorrow": 0 }, "current_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": null, "Haley Stevens": null, "Mallory McMorrow": null }, "estimated_remaining_votes": 3791.2426962240875, "estimated_final_votes": 3791.2426962240875, "turnout_disagreement_votes": 4.547473508864641e-13, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 49.28451540697091, "Haley Stevens": 46.86106919090173, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.854415402127373 }, "remaining_sources": [ { "model": "v3", "remaining_votes": 3791.242696224088, "weight": 0.1342208488636769 }, { "model": "histgeo", "remaining_votes": 3791.242696224088, "weight": 0.05994207394479305 }, { "model": "latent", "remaining_votes": 3791.242696224088, "weight": 0.07672787409296966 }, { "model": "batchbias", "remaining_votes": 3791.242696224088, "weight": 0.045123489075924846 } ], "share_sources": [ { "model": "v0", "weight": 0.03630604611298715, "source": "statewide raw" }, { "model": "v3", "weight": 0.15004242351696637, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "market", "weight": 0.0786646379365536, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "histgeo", "weight": 0.06573339512824654, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "latent", "weight": 0.08483492578364633, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "batchbias", "weight": 0.04883898267529022, "source": "county remaining" } ], "candidate_benchmarks": { "Abdul El-Sayed": { "opponent": "Haley Stevens", "expected_remaining_share_points": 49.28451540697091, "expected_final_county_share_points": 49.284515406970904, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.05060996504737, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.05060996504737, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.05060996504737, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 48.05060996504737, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": -559.6927759460161, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": false }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.05060996504737, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.05060996504737, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.05060996504737, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 48.05060996504737, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.70679650829938, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.70679650829938, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.70679650829938, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.024044322225107804, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999973, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 49.36281367778406, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 49.36281367778406, "required_final_county_share_points": 49.36281367778406, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.003259695682198218, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.9999999999999996, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": 1.2339054419235396, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "ABOVE", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.003088181016411561, "criticality_score": 0.002502769589537902, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -667.7184968415186, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -47.01577936630788, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 277.4365296555984, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Haley Stevens": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 46.86106919090173, "expected_final_county_share_points": 46.86106919090173, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.09497463282526, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.09497463282526, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.09497463282526, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 48.09497463282526, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 655.8383605438887, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.09497463282526, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.09497463282526, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.09497463282526, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 48.09497463282526, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.75132410521113, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.75132410521113, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.75132410521113, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.07865391656842785, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.999999999999999, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 49.407830044085294, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 49.407830044085294, "required_final_county_share_points": 49.407830044085294, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.10597932088248406, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -1.2339054419235325, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.003088181016411561, "criticality_score": 0.002502769589537917, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 763.8640814393913, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1384.5667989146018, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1709.0191079365081, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Mallory McMorrow": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 3.854415402127373, "expected_final_county_share_points": 3.854415402127373, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 33.78188463454098, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 33.78188463454098, "required_final_county_share_points": 33.78188463454098, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 33.78188463454098, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 14666.23999508159, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 33.78188463454098, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 33.78188463454098, "required_final_county_share_points": 33.78188463454098, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 33.78188463454098, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 34.43848971931931, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 34.43848971931931, "required_final_county_share_points": 34.43848971931931, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.159018308558073, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999906, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 35.09468575846744, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 35.09468575846744, "required_final_county_share_points": 35.09468575846744, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.213613509684069, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.999999999999993, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -29.927469232413607, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "WELL BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.003088181016411561, "criticality_score": 0.00010318884608748802, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 720.857427650617, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1341.5601451258276, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1666.012454147734, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } } } }, { "cid": "fips:26061", "county": "Houghton", "fips": "26061", "reporting": 25.489999999999995, "current_votes": 1059, "current_candidate_votes": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 530, "Haley Stevens": 459, "Mallory McMorrow": 70 }, "current_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 50.04721435316336, "Haley Stevens": 43.342776203966004, "Mallory McMorrow": 6.610009442870633 }, "estimated_remaining_votes": 3345.74264210606, "estimated_final_votes": 4404.74264210606, "turnout_disagreement_votes": 0.0, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 49.7863310825937, "Haley Stevens": 44.92337401998788, "Mallory McMorrow": 5.290294897418427 }, "remaining_sources": [ { "model": "v3", "remaining_votes": 3345.74264210606, "weight": 0.1342208488636769 }, { "model": "histgeo", "remaining_votes": 3345.74264210606, "weight": 0.05994207394479305 }, { "model": "latent", "remaining_votes": 3345.74264210606, "weight": 0.07672787409296966 }, { "model": "batchbias", "remaining_votes": 3345.74264210606, "weight": 0.045123489075924846 } ], "share_sources": [ { "model": "v0", "weight": 0.03630604611298715, "source": "statewide raw" }, { "model": "v1", "weight": 0.14599140026529184, "source": "county live" }, { "model": "v3", "weight": 0.15004242351696637, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "market", "weight": 0.0786646379365536, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "histgeo", "weight": 0.06573339512824654, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "latent", "weight": 0.08483492578364633, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "batchbias", "weight": 0.04883898267529022, "source": "county remaining" } ], "candidate_benchmarks": { "Abdul El-Sayed": { "opponent": "Haley Stevens", "expected_remaining_share_points": 49.7863310825937, "expected_final_county_share_points": 49.84905333585142, "current_county_share_points": 50.04721435316336, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.57247215638126, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.57247215638126, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.92703361735359, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 48.57247215638126, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": -640.2789115192775, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": false }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.57247215638126, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.57247215638126, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.92703361735359, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 48.57247215638126, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 49.21820101094869, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 49.21820101094869, "required_final_county_share_points": 49.41751461465689, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.024044322225107804, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999973, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 49.86330229641139, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 49.86330229641139, "required_final_county_share_points": 49.90751892469712, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.003259695682198218, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.9999999999999996, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": 1.2138589262124384, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "ABOVE", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.002725296094455012, "criticality_score": 0.0022451505983143018, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -762.6887227806749, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -59.33676302771722, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 308.3177694434474, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Haley Stevens": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 44.92337401998788, "expected_final_county_share_points": 44.54336246808327, "current_county_share_points": 43.342776203966004, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 46.13723294620032, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 46.13723294620032, "required_final_county_share_points": 45.4653821865811, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 46.13723294620032, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 734.988616621859, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 46.13723294620032, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 46.13723294620032, "required_final_county_share_points": 45.4653821865811, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 46.13723294620032, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 46.78358387273388, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 46.78358387273388, "required_final_county_share_points": 45.95633569564561, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.07865391656842785, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.999999999999999, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 47.430551339733086, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 47.430551339733086, "required_final_county_share_points": 46.447757514869004, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.10597932088248406, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -1.2138589262124384, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.002725296094455012, "criticality_score": 0.0022451505983143018, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 857.3984278832565, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1560.750387636214, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1928.404920107379, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Mallory McMorrow": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 5.290294897418427, "expected_final_county_share_points": 5.607584196065318, "current_county_share_points": 6.610009442870633, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 38.73918689798017, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 38.73918689798017, "required_final_county_share_points": 31.014604172145237, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 38.73918689798017, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 16620.035714524045, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 38.73918689798017, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 38.73918689798017, "required_final_county_share_points": 31.014604172145237, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 38.73918689798017, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 39.350124183799515, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 39.350124183799515, "required_final_county_share_points": 31.47865828265758, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.159018308558073, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999906, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 39.956306617179415, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 39.956306617179415, "required_final_county_share_points": 31.939100715063805, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.213613509684069, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.999999999999993, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -33.44889200056174, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "WELL BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.002725296094455012, "criticality_score": 8.147642362590794e-05, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 817.7653487606871, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1521.1173085136445, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1888.7718409848094, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } } } }, { "cid": "26061", "county": "26061", "fips": null, "reporting": 0.0, "current_votes": 0, "current_candidate_votes": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 0, "Haley Stevens": 0, "Mallory McMorrow": 0 }, "current_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": null, "Haley Stevens": null, "Mallory McMorrow": null }, "estimated_remaining_votes": 3345.74264210606, "estimated_final_votes": 3345.74264210606, "turnout_disagreement_votes": 0.0, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 49.31246004324791, "Haley Stevens": 45.65098547155028, "Mallory McMorrow": 5.0365544852018145 }, "remaining_sources": [ { "model": "market", "remaining_votes": 3345.74264210606, "weight": 0.1780093144963334 } ], "share_sources": [ { "model": "v0", "weight": 0.03630604611298715, "source": "statewide raw" }, { "model": "v3", "weight": 0.06301781787712588, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "market", "weight": 0.18729675699179427, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "histgeo", "weight": 0.02760802595386354, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "latent", "weight": 0.03563066882913146, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "batchbias", "weight": 0.020512372723621893, "source": "statewide fallback" } ], "candidate_benchmarks": { "Abdul El-Sayed": { "opponent": "Haley Stevens", "expected_remaining_share_points": 49.31246004324791, "expected_final_county_share_points": 49.31246004324791, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.09434629369606, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.09434629369606, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.09434629369606, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 48.09434629369606, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": -640.7527825586218, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": false }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.09434629369606, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.09434629369606, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.09434629369606, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 48.09434629369606, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.74223888666137, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.74223888666137, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.74223888666137, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.024044322225107804, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999973, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 49.38972805622101, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 49.38972805622101, "required_final_county_share_points": 49.38972805622101, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.003259695682198218, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.9999999999999996, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": 1.218113749551847, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "ABOVE", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.002725296094455012, "criticality_score": 0.0022373083757224383, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -763.1625938200207, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -59.810634067063006, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 307.84389840410165, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Haley Stevens": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 45.65098547155028, "expected_final_county_share_points": 45.650985471550285, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 46.869099221102125, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 46.869099221102125, "required_final_county_share_points": 46.869099221102125, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 46.869099221102125, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 735.7162280734199, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 46.869099221102125, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 46.869099221102125, "required_final_county_share_points": 46.869099221102125, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 46.869099221102125, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 47.51738918315602, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 47.51738918315602, "required_final_county_share_points": 47.51738918315602, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.07865391656842785, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.999999999999999, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.16607043322308, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.16607043322308, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.166070433223084, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.10597932088248406, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -1.218113749551847, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.002725296094455012, "criticality_score": 0.0022373083757224383, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 858.1260393348189, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1561.4779990877764, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1929.1325315589413, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Mallory McMorrow": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 5.0365544852018145, "expected_final_county_share_points": 5.0365544852018145, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 37.774917004629025, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 37.774917004629025, "required_final_county_share_points": 37.774917004629025, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 37.774917004629025, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 16619.78197411183, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 37.774917004629025, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 37.774917004629025, "required_final_county_share_points": 37.774917004629025, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 37.774917004629025, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 38.387639024908296, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 38.387639024908296, "required_final_county_share_points": 38.38763902490829, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.159018308558073, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999906, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 38.99612888596587, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 38.99612888596587, "required_final_county_share_points": 38.99612888596587, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.213613509684069, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.999999999999993, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -32.73836251942721, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "WELL BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.002725296094455012, "criticality_score": 8.324472834699044e-05, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 817.5116083484704, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1520.863568101428, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1888.5181005725929, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } } } }, { "cid": "26009", "county": "26009", "fips": null, "reporting": 0.0, "current_votes": 0, "current_candidate_votes": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 0, "Haley Stevens": 0, "Mallory McMorrow": 0 }, "current_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": null, "Haley Stevens": null, "Mallory McMorrow": null }, "estimated_remaining_votes": 3308.801867612957, "estimated_final_votes": 3308.801867612957, "turnout_disagreement_votes": 0.0, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 48.27100217759222, "Haley Stevens": 47.573041127080906, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.155956695326873 }, "remaining_sources": [ { "model": "market", "remaining_votes": 3308.801867612957, "weight": 0.1780093144963334 } ], "share_sources": [ { "model": "v0", "weight": 0.03630604611298715, "source": "statewide raw" }, { "model": "v3", "weight": 0.06301781787712588, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "market", "weight": 0.18729675699179427, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "histgeo", "weight": 0.02760802595386354, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "latent", "weight": 0.03563066882913146, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "batchbias", "weight": 0.020512372723621893, "source": "statewide fallback" } ], "candidate_benchmarks": { "Abdul El-Sayed": { "opponent": "Haley Stevens", "expected_remaining_share_points": 48.27100217759222, "expected_final_county_share_points": 48.27100217759222, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 47.04081622790371, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 47.04081622790371, "required_final_county_share_points": 47.04081622790371, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 47.04081622790371, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": -649.498402091374, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": false }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 47.04081622790371, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 47.04081622790371, "required_final_county_share_points": 47.04081622790371, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 47.04081622790371, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 47.694883782522766, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 47.694883782522766, "required_final_county_share_points": 47.694883782522766, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.024044322225107804, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999973, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.34910264295541, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.34910264295541, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.3491026429554, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.003259695682198218, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.9999999999999996, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": 1.2301859496885115, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "ABOVE", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.00269520575003186, "criticality_score": 0.0021908929708669635, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -773.2748449658094, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -62.07038537330685, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 309.6887879070648, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Haley Stevens": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 47.573041127080906, "expected_final_county_share_points": 47.573041127080906, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.8032270767694, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.8032270767694, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.803227076769396, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 48.8032270767694, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 745.3424453960473, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.8032270767694, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.8032270767694, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.803227076769396, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 48.8032270767694, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 49.45713689360831, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 49.45713689360831, "required_final_county_share_points": 49.45713689360831, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.07865391656842785, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.999999999999999, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 50.11088253540306, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 50.11088253540306, "required_final_county_share_points": 50.11088253540306, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.10597932088248406, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -1.2301859496884973, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.00269520575003186, "criticality_score": 0.002190892970866989, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 869.1188882704826, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1580.3233478629847, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1952.0825211433566, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Mallory McMorrow": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 4.155956695326873, "expected_final_county_share_points": 4.155956695326873, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 34.480137780876035, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 34.480137780876035, "required_final_county_share_points": 34.480137780876035, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 34.480137780876035, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 16804.39497441688, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 34.480137780876035, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 34.480137780876035, "required_final_county_share_points": 34.480137780876035, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 34.480137780876035, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 35.10919125118339, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 35.10919125118339, "required_final_county_share_points": 35.10919125118339, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.159018308558073, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999906, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 35.73638403953086, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 35.73638403953086, "required_final_county_share_points": 35.73638403953086, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.213613509684069, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.999999999999993, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -30.324181085549164, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "WELL BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.00269520575003186, "criticality_score": 8.887975383171178e-05, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 825.7018038387284, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1536.9062634312309, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1908.6654367116028, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } } } }, { "cid": "fips:26009", "county": "Antrim", "fips": "26009", "reporting": 0.0, "current_votes": 0, "current_candidate_votes": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 0, "Haley Stevens": 0, "Mallory McMorrow": 0 }, "current_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": null, "Haley Stevens": null, "Mallory McMorrow": null }, "estimated_remaining_votes": 3308.801867612957, "estimated_final_votes": 3308.801867612957, "turnout_disagreement_votes": 0.0, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 49.37396011422278, "Haley Stevens": 46.785796448893414, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.8402434368838043 }, "remaining_sources": [ { "model": "v3", "remaining_votes": 3308.801867612957, "weight": 0.1342208488636769 }, { "model": "histgeo", "remaining_votes": 3308.801867612957, "weight": 0.05994207394479305 }, { "model": "latent", "remaining_votes": 3308.801867612957, "weight": 0.07672787409296966 }, { "model": "batchbias", "remaining_votes": 3308.801867612957, "weight": 0.045123489075924846 } ], "share_sources": [ { "model": "v0", "weight": 0.03630604611298715, "source": "statewide raw" }, { "model": "v3", "weight": 0.15004242351696637, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "market", "weight": 0.0786646379365536, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "histgeo", "weight": 0.06573339512824654, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "latent", "weight": 0.08483492578364633, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "batchbias", "weight": 0.04883898267529022, "source": "county remaining" } ], "candidate_benchmarks": { "Abdul El-Sayed": { "opponent": "Haley Stevens", "expected_remaining_share_points": 49.37396011422278, "expected_final_county_share_points": 49.37396011422278, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.13992863163865, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.13992863163865, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.13992863163864, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 48.13992863163865, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": -648.3954441547453, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": false }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.13992863163865, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.13992863163865, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.13992863163864, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 48.13992863163865, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.796195691789165, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.796195691789165, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.796195691789165, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.024044322225107804, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999973, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 49.45226272727665, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 49.45226272727665, "required_final_county_share_points": 49.45226272727665, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.003259695682198218, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.9999999999999996, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": 1.234031482584136, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "ABOVE", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.00269520575003186, "criticality_score": 0.002184065632092252, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -772.1718870291788, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -60.96742743667629, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 310.79174584369537, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Haley Stevens": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 46.785796448893414, "expected_final_county_share_points": 46.785796448893414, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.01982793147754, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.01982793147754, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.01982793147754, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 48.01982793147754, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 744.5552007178616, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.01982793147754, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.01982793147754, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.01982793147754, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 48.01982793147754, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.67628859629012, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.67628859629012, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.67628859629012, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.07865391656842785, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.999999999999999, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 49.332936426552436, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 49.332936426552436, "required_final_county_share_points": 49.332936426552436, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.10597932088248406, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -1.234031482584129, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.00269520575003186, "criticality_score": 0.0021840656320922646, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 868.331643592295, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1579.5361031847974, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1951.2952764651693, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Mallory McMorrow": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 3.8402434368838043, "expected_final_county_share_points": 3.840243436883804, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 33.7619486973838, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 33.7619486973838, "required_final_county_share_points": 33.7619486973838, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 33.7619486973838, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 16804.07926115844, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 33.7619486973838, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 33.7619486973838, "required_final_county_share_points": 33.7619486973838, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 33.7619486973838, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 34.42050589917526, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 34.42050589917526, "required_final_county_share_points": 34.42050589917526, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.159018308558073, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999906, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 35.07874229361935, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 35.07874229361935, "required_final_county_share_points": 35.07874229361935, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.213613509684069, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.999999999999993, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -29.921705260499998, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "WELL BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.00269520575003186, "criticality_score": 9.007527233382095e-05, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 825.3860905802854, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1536.5905501727877, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1908.3497234531596, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } } } }, { "cid": "26123", "county": "26123", "fips": null, "reporting": 0.0, "current_votes": 0, "current_candidate_votes": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 0, "Haley Stevens": 0, "Mallory McMorrow": 0 }, "current_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": null, "Haley Stevens": null, "Mallory McMorrow": null }, "estimated_remaining_votes": 3200.745116245081, "estimated_final_votes": 3200.745116245081, "turnout_disagreement_votes": 0.0, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 48.89969721340125, "Haley Stevens": 47.0326001428678, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.067702643730954 }, "remaining_sources": [ { "model": "market", "remaining_votes": 3200.745116245081, "weight": 0.1780093144963334 } ], "share_sources": [ { "model": "v0", "weight": 0.03630604611298715, "source": "statewide raw" }, { "model": "v3", "weight": 0.06301781787712588, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "market", "weight": 0.18729675699179427, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "histgeo", "weight": 0.02760802595386354, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "latent", "weight": 0.03563066882913146, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "batchbias", "weight": 0.020512372723621893, "source": "statewide fallback" } ], "candidate_benchmarks": { "Abdul El-Sayed": { "opponent": "Haley Stevens", "expected_remaining_share_points": 48.89969721340125, "expected_final_county_share_points": 48.89969721340125, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 47.66839461620564, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 47.66839461620564, "required_final_county_share_points": 47.66839461620564, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 47.66839461620564, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": -672.426314123878, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": false }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 47.66839461620564, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 47.66839461620564, "required_final_county_share_points": 47.66839461620564, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 47.66839461620564, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.323151754974845, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.323151754974845, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.323151754974845, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.024044322225107804, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999973, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.977842575966974, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.977842575966974, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.977842575966974, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.003259695682198218, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.9999999999999996, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": 1.231302597195608, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "ABOVE", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.0026071874312358283, "criticality_score": 0.002117422181333744, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -800.3814340960289, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -65.16680166225132, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 319.1429144126714, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Haley Stevens": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 47.0326001428678, "expected_final_county_share_points": 47.03260014286779, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.263902740063415, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.263902740063415, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.263902740063415, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 48.263902740063415, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 768.358611480147, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.263902740063415, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.263902740063415, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.263902740063415, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 48.263902740063415, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.91871971216041, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.91871971216041, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.91871971216041, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.07865391656842785, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.999999999999999, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 49.57359001921479, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 49.57359001921479, "required_final_county_share_points": 49.57359001921479, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.10597932088248406, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -1.231302597195615, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.0026071874312358283, "criticality_score": 0.0021174221813337313, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 896.3137314522979, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1631.5283638860753, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 2015.8380799609984, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Mallory McMorrow": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 4.067702643730954, "expected_final_county_share_points": 4.067702643730953, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 34.42310697630675, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 34.42310697630675, "required_final_county_share_points": 34.42310697630675, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 34.42310697630675, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 17371.480670344943, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 34.42310697630675, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 34.42310697630675, "required_final_county_share_points": 34.42310697630675, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 34.42310697630675, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 35.06567287040493, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 35.06567287040493, "required_final_county_share_points": 35.06567287040493, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.159018308558073, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999906, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 35.706869543417156, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 35.706869543417156, "required_final_county_share_points": 35.706869543417156, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.213613509684069, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.999999999999993, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -30.355404332575795, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "WELL BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.0026071874312358283, "criticality_score": 8.588874003031923e-05, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 853.3488339531611, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1588.5634663869384, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1972.8731824618615, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } } } }, { "cid": "fips:26123", "county": "Newaygo", "fips": "26123", "reporting": 11.7, "current_votes": 474, "current_candidate_votes": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 183, "Haley Stevens": 266, "Mallory McMorrow": 25 }, "current_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 38.607594936708864, "Haley Stevens": 56.118143459915615, "Mallory McMorrow": 5.274261603375527 }, "estimated_remaining_votes": 3200.745116245081, "estimated_final_votes": 3674.745116245081, "turnout_disagreement_votes": 0.0, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 44.644473190486266, "Haley Stevens": 50.88909420569647, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.466432603817268 }, "remaining_sources": [ { "model": "v3", "remaining_votes": 3200.745116245081, "weight": 0.1342208488636769 }, { "model": "histgeo", "remaining_votes": 3200.745116245081, "weight": 0.05994207394479305 }, { "model": "latent", "remaining_votes": 3200.745116245081, "weight": 0.07672787409296966 }, { "model": "batchbias", "remaining_votes": 3200.745116245081, "weight": 0.045123489075924846 } ], "share_sources": [ { "model": "v0", "weight": 0.03630604611298715, "source": "statewide raw" }, { "model": "v1", "weight": 0.14599140026529184, "source": "county live" }, { "model": "v3", "weight": 0.15004242351696637, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "market", "weight": 0.0786646379365536, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "histgeo", "weight": 0.06573339512824654, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "latent", "weight": 0.08483492578364633, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "batchbias", "weight": 0.04883898267529022, "source": "county remaining" } ], "candidate_benchmarks": { "Abdul El-Sayed": { "opponent": "Haley Stevens", "expected_remaining_share_points": 44.644473190486266, "expected_final_county_share_points": 43.86578509055774, "current_county_share_points": 38.607594936708864, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 43.42571969093881, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 43.42571969093881, "required_final_county_share_points": 42.804236823077055, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 43.42571969093881, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": -676.6815381467919, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": false }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 43.42571969093881, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 43.42571969093881, "required_final_county_share_points": 42.804236823077055, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 43.42571969093881, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 44.07314334632355, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 44.07314334632355, "required_final_county_share_points": 43.368150247698914, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.024044322225107804, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999973, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 44.72200133161808, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 44.72200133161808, "required_final_county_share_points": 43.933312990112526, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.003259695682198218, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.9999999999999996, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": 1.2187534995474536, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "ABOVE", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.0026071874312358283, "criticality_score": 0.0021392245701890716, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -804.636658118944, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -69.42202568516629, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 314.8876903897565, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Haley Stevens": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 50.88909420569647, "expected_final_county_share_points": 51.563581624032715, "current_county_share_points": 56.118143459915615, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 52.10784770524393, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 52.10784770524393, "required_final_county_share_points": 52.62512989151341, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 52.10784770524393, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 772.2151055429746, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 52.10784770524393, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 52.10784770524393, "required_final_county_share_points": 52.62512989151341, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 52.10784770524393, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 52.75383538188565, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 52.75383538188565, "required_final_county_share_points": 53.18779256219091, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.07865391656842785, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.999999999999999, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 53.39838545532275, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 53.39838545532275, "required_final_county_share_points": 53.74920306399932, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.10597932088248406, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -1.2187534995474536, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.0026071874312358283, "criticality_score": 0.0021392245701890716, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 900.1702255151266, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1635.384857948904, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 2019.694574023827, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Mallory McMorrow": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 4.466432603817268, "expected_final_county_share_points": 4.570633285409541, "current_county_share_points": 5.274261603375527, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 33.918010935613374, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 33.918010935613374, "required_final_county_share_points": 30.223295586932515, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 33.918010935613374, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 17371.879400305035, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 33.918010935613374, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 33.918010935613374, "required_final_county_share_points": 30.223295586932515, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 33.918010935613374, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 34.47624510714461, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 34.47624510714461, "required_final_county_share_points": 30.70952394882648, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.159018308558073, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999906, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 35.0308823102411, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 35.0308823102411, "required_final_county_share_points": 31.192619309985268, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.213613509684069, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.999999999999993, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -29.451578331796107, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "WELL BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.0026071874312358283, "criticality_score": 8.85245402424186e-05, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 853.7475639132474, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1588.962196347025, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1973.271912421948, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } } } }, { "cid": "fips:26019", "county": "Benzie", "fips": "26019", "reporting": 24.01, "current_votes": 765, "current_candidate_votes": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 438, "Haley Stevens": 297, "Mallory McMorrow": 30 }, "current_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 57.25490196078431, "Haley Stevens": 38.82352941176471, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.9215686274509802 }, "estimated_remaining_votes": 3174.6120880113112, "estimated_final_votes": 3939.6120880113112, "turnout_disagreement_votes": 4.547473508864641e-13, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 53.493082637610456, "Haley Stevens": 42.63403696904373, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.872880393345816 }, "remaining_sources": [ { "model": "v3", "remaining_votes": 3174.612088011311, "weight": 0.1342208488636769 }, { "model": "histgeo", "remaining_votes": 3174.612088011311, "weight": 0.05994207394479305 }, { "model": "latent", "remaining_votes": 3174.612088011311, "weight": 0.07672787409296966 }, { "model": "batchbias", "remaining_votes": 3174.612088011311, "weight": 0.045123489075924846 } ], "share_sources": [ { "model": "v0", "weight": 0.03630604611298715, "source": "statewide raw" }, { "model": "v1", "weight": 0.14599140026529184, "source": "county live" }, { "model": "v3", "weight": 0.15004242351696637, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "market", "weight": 0.0786646379365536, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "histgeo", "weight": 0.06573339512824654, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "latent", "weight": 0.08483492578364633, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "batchbias", "weight": 0.04883898267529022, "source": "county remaining" } ], "candidate_benchmarks": { "Abdul El-Sayed": { "opponent": "Haley Stevens", "expected_remaining_share_points": 53.493082637610456, "expected_final_county_share_points": 54.22355856212736, "current_county_share_points": 57.25490196078431, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 52.27162982040284, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 52.27162982040284, "required_final_county_share_points": 53.23928935190667, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 52.27162982040284, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": -673.7707984290821, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": false }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 52.27162982040284, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 52.27162982040284, "required_final_county_share_points": 53.23928935190667, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 52.27162982040284, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 52.9218803291313, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 52.9218803291313, "required_final_county_share_points": 53.76327320593299, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.024044322225107804, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999973, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 53.57040495707894, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 53.57040495707894, "required_final_county_share_points": 54.285866313391686, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.003259695682198218, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.9999999999999996, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": 1.221452817207613, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "ABOVE", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.0025859006057384125, "criticality_score": 0.002117069582474819, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -802.7792296941349, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -61.51239805786878, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 325.96090978268273, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Haley Stevens": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 42.63403696904373, "expected_final_county_share_points": 41.89410668753473, "current_county_share_points": 38.82352941176471, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 43.855489786251326, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 43.855489786251326, "required_final_county_share_points": 42.8783758977554, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 43.855489786251326, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 769.8979180357364, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 43.855489786251326, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 43.855489786251326, "required_final_county_share_points": 42.8783758977554, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 43.855489786251326, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 44.50746659977364, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 44.50746659977364, "required_final_county_share_points": 43.40375084002691, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.07865391656842785, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.999999999999999, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 45.16117009848173, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 45.16117009848173, "required_final_county_share_points": 43.9305171770704, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.10597932088248406, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -1.2214528172075987, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.0025859006057384125, "criticality_score": 0.0021170695824748436, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 898.906349300789, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1640.1731809370551, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 2027.6464887776067, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Mallory McMorrow": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 3.872880393345816, "expected_final_county_share_points": 3.882334750337916, "current_county_share_points": 3.9215686274509802, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 35.43370505374941, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 35.43370505374941, "required_final_county_share_points": 29.31462941189167, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 35.43370505374941, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 17514.25232111546, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 35.43370505374941, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 35.43370505374941, "required_final_county_share_points": 29.31462941189167, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 35.43370505374941, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 36.15723776745562, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 36.15723776745562, "required_final_county_share_points": 29.897665418404394, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.159018308558073, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999906, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 36.88171474701345, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 36.88171474701345, "required_final_county_share_points": 30.48146233175766, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.213613509684069, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.999999999999993, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -31.56082466040359, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "WELL BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.0025859006057384125, "criticality_score": 8.193387319763857e-05, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 860.1451927250911, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1601.4120243613572, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1988.8853322019088, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } } } }, { "cid": "26019", "county": "26019", "fips": null, "reporting": 0.0, "current_votes": 0, "current_candidate_votes": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 0, "Haley Stevens": 0, "Mallory McMorrow": 0 }, "current_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": null, "Haley Stevens": null, "Mallory McMorrow": null }, "estimated_remaining_votes": 3174.6120880113112, "estimated_final_votes": 3174.6120880113112, "turnout_disagreement_votes": 4.547473508864641e-13, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 50.730017324504615, "Haley Stevens": 45.27172579179482, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.9982568837005563 }, "remaining_sources": [ { "model": "market", "remaining_votes": 3174.612088011311, "weight": 0.1780093144963334 } ], "share_sources": [ { "model": "v0", "weight": 0.03630604611298715, "source": "statewide raw" }, { "model": "v3", "weight": 0.06301781787712588, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "market", "weight": 0.18729675699179427, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "histgeo", "weight": 0.02760802595386354, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "latent", "weight": 0.03563066882913146, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "batchbias", "weight": 0.020512372723621893, "source": "statewide fallback" } ], "candidate_benchmarks": { "Abdul El-Sayed": { "opponent": "Haley Stevens", "expected_remaining_share_points": 50.730017324504615, "expected_final_county_share_points": 50.73001732450461, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 49.50016019836641, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 49.50016019836641, "required_final_county_share_points": 49.50016019836641, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 49.50016019836641, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": -676.5338637421879, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": false }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 49.50016019836641, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 49.50016019836641, "required_final_county_share_points": 49.50016019836641, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 49.50016019836641, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 50.15444288185997, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 50.15444288185997, "required_final_county_share_points": 50.15444288185997, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.024044322225107804, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999973, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 50.80799124524014, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 50.80799124524014, "required_final_county_share_points": 50.80799124524014, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.003259695682198218, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.9999999999999996, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": 1.2298571261382065, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "ABOVE", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.0025859006057384125, "criticality_score": 0.0021026024493253368, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -805.5422950072407, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -64.27546337097462, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 323.19784446957686, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Haley Stevens": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 45.27172579179482, "expected_final_county_share_points": 45.27172579179482, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 46.501582917933014, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 46.501582917933014, "required_final_county_share_points": 46.501582917933014, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 46.501582917933014, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 772.5356068584873, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 46.501582917933014, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 46.501582917933014, "required_final_county_share_points": 46.501582917933014, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 46.501582917933014, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 47.15659466006662, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 47.15659466006662, "required_final_county_share_points": 47.15659466006661, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.07865391656842785, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.999999999999999, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 47.8123301615876, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 47.8123301615876, "required_final_county_share_points": 47.8123301615876, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.10597932088248406, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -1.2298571261381923, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.0025859006057384125, "criticality_score": 0.002102602449325361, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 901.5440381235401, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1642.810869759806, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 2030.2841776003577, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Mallory McMorrow": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 3.9982568837005563, "expected_final_county_share_points": 3.9982568837005563, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 34.890156189751885, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 34.890156189751885, "required_final_county_share_points": 34.890156189751885, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 34.890156189751885, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 17514.37769760581, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 34.890156189751885, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 34.890156189751885, "required_final_county_share_points": 34.890156189751885, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 34.890156189751885, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 35.56490834428867, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 35.56490834428867, "required_final_county_share_points": 35.56490834428867, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.159018308558073, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999906, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 36.23911150956503, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 36.23911150956503, "required_final_county_share_points": 36.23911150956503, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.213613509684069, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.999999999999993, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -30.89189930605133, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "WELL BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.0025859006057384125, "criticality_score": 8.370804851198863e-05, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 860.2705692154459, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1601.537400851712, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1989.0107086922635, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } } } }, { "cid": "26047", "county": "26047", "fips": null, "reporting": 0.0, "current_votes": 0, "current_candidate_votes": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 0, "Haley Stevens": 0, "Mallory McMorrow": 0 }, "current_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": null, "Haley Stevens": null, "Mallory McMorrow": null }, "estimated_remaining_votes": 2782.232900489893, "estimated_final_votes": 2782.232900489893, "turnout_disagreement_votes": 0.0, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 50.710906450832304, "Haley Stevens": 44.847730416503666, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.441363132664023 }, "remaining_sources": [ { "model": "market", "remaining_votes": 2782.232900489893, "weight": 0.1780093144963334 } ], "share_sources": [ { "model": "v0", "weight": 0.03630604611298715, "source": "statewide raw" }, { "model": "v3", "weight": 0.06301781787712588, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "market", "weight": 0.18729675699179427, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "histgeo", "weight": 0.02760802595386354, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "latent", "weight": 0.03563066882913146, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "batchbias", "weight": 0.020512372723621893, "source": "statewide fallback" } ], "candidate_benchmarks": { "Abdul El-Sayed": { "opponent": "Haley Stevens", "expected_remaining_share_points": 50.710906450832304, "expected_final_county_share_points": 50.710906450832304, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 49.48723771948419, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 49.48723771948419, "required_final_county_share_points": 49.48723771948419, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 49.48723771948419, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": -779.119230200134, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": false }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 49.48723771948419, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 49.48723771948419, "required_final_county_share_points": 49.48723771948419, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 49.48723771948419, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 50.13826343147477, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 50.13826343147477, "required_final_county_share_points": 50.13826343147477, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.024044322225107804, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999973, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 50.78847847817567, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 50.78847847817567, "required_final_county_share_points": 50.78847847817567, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.003259695682198218, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.9999999999999996, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": 1.2236687313481127, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "ABOVE", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.002266285625841326, "criticality_score": 0.0018520417885848606, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -926.3217614035068, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -80.51383362723013, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 361.6049575910578, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Haley Stevens": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 44.847730416503666, "expected_final_county_share_points": 44.847730416503666, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 46.07139914785179, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 46.07139914785179, "required_final_county_share_points": 46.07139914785179, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 46.07139914785179, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 874.6778670674698, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 46.07139914785179, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 46.07139914785179, "required_final_county_share_points": 46.07139914785179, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 46.07139914785179, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 46.723230573520766, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 46.723230573520766, "required_final_county_share_points": 46.723230573520766, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.07865391656842785, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.999999999999999, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 47.3758627214757, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 47.3758627214757, "required_final_county_share_points": 47.3758627214757, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.10597932088248406, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -1.223668731348127, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.002266285625841326, "criticality_score": 0.0018520417885848392, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1021.8803982708428, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1867.6883260471193, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 2309.807117265407, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Mallory McMorrow": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 4.441363132664023, "expected_final_county_share_points": 4.441363132664024, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 36.484377830344414, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 36.484377830344414, "required_final_county_share_points": 36.484377830344414, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 36.484377830344414, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 19984.3151646369, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 36.484377830344414, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 36.484377830344414, "required_final_county_share_points": 36.484377830344414, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 36.484377830344414, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 37.14239258373468, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 37.14239258373468, "required_final_county_share_points": 37.14239258373469, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.159018308558073, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999906, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 37.79819287111364, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 37.79819287111364, "required_final_county_share_points": 37.79819287111364, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.213613509684069, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.999999999999993, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -32.04301469768039, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "WELL BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.002266285625841326, "criticality_score": 7.072635478350867e-05, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 981.4740309870032, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1827.2819587632796, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 2269.4007499815675, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } } } }, { "cid": "fips:26047", "county": "Emmet", "fips": "26047", "reporting": 50.16, "current_votes": 2353, "current_candidate_votes": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 1274, "Haley Stevens": 953, "Mallory McMorrow": 126 }, "current_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 54.14364640883977, "Haley Stevens": 40.50148746281343, "Mallory McMorrow": 5.354866128346791 }, "estimated_remaining_votes": 2782.232900489893, "estimated_final_votes": 5135.232900489893, "turnout_disagreement_votes": 0.0, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 52.46308691817604, "Haley Stevens": 42.73358357877251, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.803329503051446 }, "remaining_sources": [ { "model": "v3", "remaining_votes": 2782.232900489893, "weight": 0.1342208488636769 }, { "model": "histgeo", "remaining_votes": 2782.232900489893, "weight": 0.05994207394479305 }, { "model": "latent", "remaining_votes": 2782.232900489893, "weight": 0.07672787409296966 }, { "model": "batchbias", "remaining_votes": 2782.232900489893, "weight": 0.045123489075924846 } ], "share_sources": [ { "model": "v0", "weight": 0.03630604611298715, "source": "statewide raw" }, { "model": "v1", "weight": 0.14599140026529184, "source": "county live" }, { "model": "v3", "weight": 0.15004242351696637, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "market", "weight": 0.0786646379365536, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "histgeo", "weight": 0.06573339512824654, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "latent", "weight": 0.08483492578364633, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "batchbias", "weight": 0.04883898267529022, "source": "county remaining" } ], "candidate_benchmarks": { "Abdul El-Sayed": { "opponent": "Haley Stevens", "expected_remaining_share_points": 52.46308691817604, "expected_final_county_share_points": 53.23313115144821, "current_county_share_points": 54.14364640883977, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 51.250955667579326, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 51.250955667579326, "required_final_county_share_points": 52.57640700466211, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 51.250955667579326, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": -777.3670497327901, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": false }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 51.250955667579326, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 51.250955667579326, "required_final_county_share_points": 52.57640700466211, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 51.250955667579326, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 51.89616018151322, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 51.89616018151322, "required_final_county_share_points": 52.92597425136678, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.024044322225107804, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999973, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 52.53984175105116, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 52.53984175105116, "required_final_county_share_points": 53.274716377558676, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.003259695682198218, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.9999999999999996, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": 1.2121312505967126, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "ABOVE", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.002266285625841326, "criticality_score": 0.001869670157192689, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -924.5695809361631, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -78.76165315988641, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 363.3571380584016, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Haley Stevens": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 42.73358357877251, "expected_final_county_share_points": 41.71082136669237, "current_county_share_points": 40.50148746281343, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 43.94571482936922, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 43.94571482936922, "required_final_county_share_points": 42.36754551347848, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 43.94571482936922, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 872.5637202297387, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 43.94571482936922, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 43.94571482936922, "required_final_county_share_points": 42.36754551347848, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 43.94571482936922, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 44.59244127745252, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 44.59244127745252, "required_final_county_share_points": 42.717937333351465, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.07865391656842785, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.999999999999999, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 45.240688602963054, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 45.240688602963054, "required_final_county_share_points": 43.069153153868186, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.10597932088248406, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -1.2121312505967126, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.002266285625841326, "criticality_score": 0.001869670157192689, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1019.7662514331116, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1865.5741792093881, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 2307.6929704276763, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Mallory McMorrow": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 4.803329503051446, "expected_final_county_share_points": 5.056047481859407, "current_county_share_points": 5.354866128346791, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 38.44784351659984, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 38.44784351659984, "required_final_county_share_points": 23.284407445933798, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 38.44784351659984, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 19984.677131007287, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 38.44784351659984, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 38.44784351659984, "required_final_county_share_points": 23.284407445933798, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 38.44784351659984, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 39.120707447958615, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 39.120707447958615, "required_final_county_share_points": 23.64896036956084, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.159018308558073, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999906, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 39.79060389230359, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 39.79060389230359, "required_final_county_share_points": 24.011905529691745, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.213613509684069, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.999999999999993, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -33.644514013548395, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "WELL BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.002266285625841326, "criticality_score": 6.735973730899218e-05, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 981.8359973573906, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1827.643925133667, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 2269.762716351955, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } } } }, { "cid": "fips:26043", "county": "Dickinson", "fips": "26043", "reporting": 0.0, "current_votes": 0, "current_candidate_votes": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 0, "Haley Stevens": 0, "Mallory McMorrow": 0 }, "current_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": null, "Haley Stevens": null, "Mallory McMorrow": null }, "estimated_remaining_votes": 2771.437006206097, "estimated_final_votes": 2771.437006206097, "turnout_disagreement_votes": 0.0, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 49.16865152154438, "Haley Stevens": 46.95980356147505, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.8715449169805627 }, "remaining_sources": [ { "model": "v3", "remaining_votes": 2771.437006206097, "weight": 0.1342208488636769 }, { "model": "histgeo", "remaining_votes": 2771.437006206097, "weight": 0.05994207394479305 }, { "model": "latent", "remaining_votes": 2771.437006206097, "weight": 0.07672787409296966 }, { "model": "batchbias", "remaining_votes": 2771.437006206097, "weight": 0.045123489075924846 } ], "share_sources": [ { "model": "v0", "weight": 0.03630604611298715, "source": "statewide raw" }, { "model": "v3", "weight": 0.15004242351696637, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "market", "weight": 0.0786646379365536, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "histgeo", "weight": 0.06573339512824654, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "latent", "weight": 0.08483492578364633, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "batchbias", "weight": 0.04883898267529022, "source": "county remaining" } ], "candidate_benchmarks": { "Abdul El-Sayed": { "opponent": "Haley Stevens", "expected_remaining_share_points": 49.16865152154438, "expected_final_county_share_points": 49.16865152154438, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 47.93490399099499, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 47.93490399099499, "required_final_county_share_points": 47.93490399099499, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 47.93490399099499, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": -783.8940169923975, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": false }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 47.93490399099499, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 47.93490399099499, "required_final_county_share_points": 47.93490399099499, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 47.93490399099499, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.590988980207996, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.590988980207996, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.590988980207996, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.024044322225107804, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999973, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 49.24694453603149, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 49.24694453603149, "required_final_county_share_points": 49.246944536031485, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.003259695682198218, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.9999999999999996, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": 1.233747530549394, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "ABOVE", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.0022574917610181616, "criticality_score": 0.0018297842185044854, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -931.6699629844236, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -82.56726323526016, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 361.27376367526404, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Haley Stevens": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 46.95980356147505, "expected_final_county_share_points": 46.95980356147505, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.19355109202444, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.19355109202444, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.19355109202444, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 48.19355109202444, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 880.0224720754169, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.19355109202444, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.19355109202444, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.19355109202444, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 48.19355109202444, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.84975904430577, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.84975904430577, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.84975904430577, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.07865391656842785, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.999999999999999, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 49.50608347289391, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 49.50608347289391, "required_final_county_share_points": 49.50608347289392, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.10597932088248406, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -1.233747530549394, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.0022574917610181616, "criticality_score": 0.0018297842185044854, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1027.798418067443, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1876.9011178166063, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 2320.7421447271304, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Mallory McMorrow": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 3.8715449169805627, "expected_final_county_share_points": 3.8715449169805627, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 33.802415637919424, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 33.802415637919424, "required_final_county_share_points": 33.802415637919424, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 33.802415637919424, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 20061.57522488557, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 33.802415637919424, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 33.802415637919424, "required_final_county_share_points": 33.802415637919424, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 33.802415637919424, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 34.45653241391705, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 34.45653241391705, "required_final_county_share_points": 34.45653241391705, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.159018308558073, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999906, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 35.110132188854834, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 35.110132188854834, "required_final_county_share_points": 35.110132188854834, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.213613509684069, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.999999999999993, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -29.930870720938863, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "WELL BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.0022574917610181616, "criticality_score": 7.54235244963615e-05, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 984.7101594229485, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1833.8128591721118, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 2277.653886082636, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } } } }, { "cid": "26043", "county": "26043", "fips": null, "reporting": 0.0, "current_votes": 0, "current_candidate_votes": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 0, "Haley Stevens": 0, "Mallory McMorrow": 0 }, "current_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": null, "Haley Stevens": null, "Mallory McMorrow": null }, "estimated_remaining_votes": 2771.437006206097, "estimated_final_votes": 2771.437006206097, "turnout_disagreement_votes": 0.0, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 48.973903537573875, "Haley Stevens": 46.149745434179586, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.8763510282465425 }, "remaining_sources": [ { "model": "market", "remaining_votes": 2771.437006206097, "weight": 0.1780093144963334 } ], "share_sources": [ { "model": "v0", "weight": 0.03630604611298715, "source": "statewide raw" }, { "model": "v3", "weight": 0.06301781787712588, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "market", "weight": 0.18729675699179427, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "histgeo", "weight": 0.02760802595386354, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "latent", "weight": 0.03563066882913146, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "batchbias", "weight": 0.020512372723621893, "source": "statewide fallback" } ], "candidate_benchmarks": { "Abdul El-Sayed": { "opponent": "Haley Stevens", "expected_remaining_share_points": 48.973903537573875, "expected_final_county_share_points": 48.973903537573875, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 47.75327342108671, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 47.75327342108671, "required_final_county_share_points": 47.75327342108671, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 47.75327342108671, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": -784.0887649763681, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": false }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 47.75327342108671, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 47.75327342108671, "required_final_county_share_points": 47.75327342108671, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 47.75327342108671, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.402435191598066, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.402435191598066, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.40243519159807, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.024044322225107804, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999973, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 49.05134992915548, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 49.05134992915548, "required_final_county_share_points": 49.05134992915548, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.003259695682198218, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.9999999999999996, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": 1.2206301164871647, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "ABOVE", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.0022574917610181616, "criticality_score": 0.0018494478634649516, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -931.8647109683941, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -82.76201121923066, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 361.07901569129353, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Haley Stevens": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 46.149745434179586, "expected_final_county_share_points": 46.149745434179586, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 47.37037555066674, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 47.37037555066674, "required_final_county_share_points": 47.37037555066674, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 47.37037555066674, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 879.2124139481215, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 47.37037555066674, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 47.37037555066674, "required_final_county_share_points": 47.37037555066674, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 47.37037555066674, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.01977805349677, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.01977805349677, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.01977805349678, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.07865391656842785, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.999999999999999, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.6694149671013, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.6694149671013, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.6694149671013, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.10597932088248406, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -1.2206301164871576, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.0022574917610181616, "criticality_score": 0.0018494478634649622, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1026.9883599401476, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1876.0910596893107, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 2319.932086599835, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Mallory McMorrow": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 4.8763510282465425, "expected_final_county_share_points": 4.8763510282465425, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 37.136501345834354, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 37.136501345834354, "required_final_county_share_points": 37.13650134583436, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 37.136501345834354, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 20062.580030996833, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 37.136501345834354, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 37.136501345834354, "required_final_county_share_points": 37.13650134583436, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 37.136501345834354, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 37.749746513256014, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 37.749746513256014, "required_final_county_share_points": 37.74974651325601, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.159018308558073, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999906, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 38.359105897231565, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 38.359105897231565, "required_final_county_share_points": 38.359105897231565, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.213613509684069, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.999999999999993, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -32.260150317587815, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "WELL BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.0022574917610181616, "criticality_score": 6.997771984302895e-05, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 985.7149655342145, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1834.8176652833777, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 2278.658692193902, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } } } }, { "cid": "26143", "county": "26143", "fips": null, "reporting": 0.0, "current_votes": 0, "current_candidate_votes": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 0, "Haley Stevens": 0, "Mallory McMorrow": 0 }, "current_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": null, "Haley Stevens": null, "Mallory McMorrow": null }, "estimated_remaining_votes": 2732.255070860492, "estimated_final_votes": 2732.255070860492, "turnout_disagreement_votes": 0.0, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 45.53344018445743, "Haley Stevens": 50.23026380270551, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.236296012837063 }, "remaining_sources": [ { "model": "market", "remaining_votes": 2732.255070860492, "weight": 0.1780093144963334 } ], "share_sources": [ { "model": "v0", "weight": 0.03630604611298715, "source": "statewide raw" }, { "model": "v3", "weight": 0.06301781787712588, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "market", "weight": 0.18729675699179427, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "histgeo", "weight": 0.02760802595386354, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "latent", "weight": 0.03563066882913146, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "batchbias", "weight": 0.020512372723621893, "source": "statewide fallback" } ], "candidate_benchmarks": { "Abdul El-Sayed": { "opponent": "Haley Stevens", "expected_remaining_share_points": 45.53344018445743, "expected_final_county_share_points": 45.53344018445744, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 44.30894780627911, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 44.30894780627911, "required_final_county_share_points": 44.30894780627911, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 44.30894780627911, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": -799.4757731322253, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": false }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 44.30894780627911, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 44.30894780627911, "required_final_county_share_points": 44.30894780627911, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 44.30894780627911, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 44.9595475971268, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 44.9595475971268, "required_final_county_share_points": 44.9595475971268, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.024044322225107804, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999973, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 45.611298746342676, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 45.611298746342676, "required_final_county_share_points": 45.611298746342676, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.003259695682198218, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.9999999999999996, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": 1.2244923781783257, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "ABOVE", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.002225575864670752, "criticality_score": 0.001817549789882511, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -949.3709017815539, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -88.0916349767853, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 362.11429929747845, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Haley Stevens": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 50.23026380270551, "expected_final_county_share_points": 50.230263802705515, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 51.454756180883834, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 51.454756180883834, "required_final_county_share_points": 51.454756180883834, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 51.454756180883834, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 895.2394771193882, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 51.454756180883834, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 51.454756180883834, "required_final_county_share_points": 51.454756180883834, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 51.454756180883834, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 52.10420122635174, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 52.10420122635174, "required_final_county_share_points": 52.10420122635174, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.07865391656842785, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.999999999999999, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 52.75248816288217, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 52.75248816288217, "required_final_county_share_points": 52.75248816288217, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.10597932088248406, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -1.2244923781783257, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.002225575864670752, "criticality_score": 0.001817549789882511, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1045.134605768717, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1906.4138725734852, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 2356.6198068477493, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Mallory McMorrow": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 4.236296012837063, "expected_final_county_share_points": 4.236296012837063, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 33.59035273597012, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 33.59035273597012, "required_final_county_share_points": 33.59035273597012, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 33.59035273597012, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 20349.57770686221, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 33.59035273597012, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 33.59035273597012, "required_final_county_share_points": 33.59035273597012, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 33.59035273597012, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 34.17178368873538, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 34.17178368873538, "required_final_county_share_points": 34.17178368873538, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.159018308558073, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999906, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 34.75043332895887, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 34.75043332895887, "required_final_county_share_points": 34.75043332895887, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.213613509684069, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.999999999999993, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -29.35405672313306, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "WELL BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.002225575864670752, "criticality_score": 7.581834039711594e-05, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 999.1406379788484, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1860.4199047836169, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 2310.625839057881, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } } } }, { "cid": "fips:26143", "county": "Roscommon", "fips": "26143", "reporting": 15.72, "current_votes": 484, "current_candidate_votes": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 163, "Haley Stevens": 297, "Mallory McMorrow": 24 }, "current_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 33.67768595041322, "Haley Stevens": 61.36363636363637, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.958677685950414 }, "estimated_remaining_votes": 2732.255070860492, "estimated_final_votes": 3216.255070860492, "turnout_disagreement_votes": 0.0, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 41.97757579994265, "Haley Stevens": 53.64337213625511, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.379052063802255 }, "remaining_sources": [ { "model": "v3", "remaining_votes": 2732.255070860492, "weight": 0.1342208488636769 }, { "model": "histgeo", "remaining_votes": 2732.255070860492, "weight": 0.05994207394479305 }, { "model": "latent", "remaining_votes": 2732.255070860492, "weight": 0.07672787409296966 }, { "model": "batchbias", "remaining_votes": 2732.255070860492, "weight": 0.045123489075924846 } ], "share_sources": [ { "model": "v0", "weight": 0.03630604611298715, "source": "statewide raw" }, { "model": "v1", "weight": 0.14599140026529184, "source": "county live" }, { "model": "v3", "weight": 0.15004242351696637, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "market", "weight": 0.0786646379365536, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "histgeo", "weight": 0.06573339512824654, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "latent", "weight": 0.08483492578364633, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "batchbias", "weight": 0.04883898267529022, "source": "county remaining" } ], "candidate_benchmarks": { "Abdul El-Sayed": { "opponent": "Haley Stevens", "expected_remaining_share_points": 41.97757579994265, "expected_final_county_share_points": 40.72856208720329, "current_county_share_points": 33.67768595041322, "recent_batch_votes": 214, "recent_batch_share_points": 28.504672897196258, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 40.77245653245891, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 40.77245653245891, "required_final_county_share_points": 39.704795887996596, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 40.77245653245891, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": -803.0316375167381, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": false }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 40.77245653245891, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 40.77245653245891, "required_final_county_share_points": 39.704795887996596, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 40.77245653245891, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 41.41220221832386, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 41.41220221832386, "required_final_county_share_points": 40.248269075214296, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.024044322225107804, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999973, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 42.05435497077324, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 42.05435497077324, "required_final_county_share_points": 40.79378710021267, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.003259695682198218, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.9999999999999996, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": 1.205119267483738, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -12.267783635262653, "status": "ABOVE", "recent_status": "WELL BELOW", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.002225575864670752, "criticality_score": 0.001846768137163473, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -952.9267661660687, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -91.64749936130008, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 358.55843491296366, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Haley Stevens": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 53.64337213625511, "expected_final_county_share_points": 54.805160552822706, "current_county_share_points": 61.36363636363637, "recent_batch_votes": 214, "recent_batch_share_points": 67.7570093457944, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 54.848491403738855, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 54.848491403738855, "required_final_county_share_points": 55.82892675202942, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 54.848491403738855, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 898.6525854529358, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 54.848491403738855, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 54.848491403738855, "required_final_county_share_points": 55.82892675202942, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 54.848491403738855, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 55.48583722269148, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 55.48583722269148, "required_final_county_share_points": 56.37036121769172, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.07865391656842785, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.999999999999999, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 56.12079035673592, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 56.12079035673592, "required_final_county_share_points": 56.90976306301475, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.10597932088248406, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -1.2051192674837452, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": 12.908517942055546, "status": "BELOW", "recent_status": "WELL ABOVE", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.002225575864670752, "criticality_score": 0.0018467681371634622, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1048.5477141022664, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1909.8269809070348, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 2360.032915181299, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Mallory McMorrow": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 4.379052063802255, "expected_final_county_share_points": 4.466277359974008, "current_county_share_points": 4.958677685950414, "recent_batch_votes": 214, "recent_batch_share_points": 3.7383177570093453, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 32.42682629440859, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 32.42682629440859, "required_final_county_share_points": 28.293266102947513, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 32.42682629440859, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 20349.720462913177, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 32.42682629440859, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 32.42682629440859, "required_final_county_share_points": 28.293266102947513, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 32.42682629440859, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 32.944977094900935, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 32.944977094900935, "required_final_county_share_points": 28.7334426812737, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.159018308558073, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999906, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 33.459305524073116, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 33.459305524073116, "required_final_county_share_points": 29.17037210003321, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.213613509684069, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.999999999999993, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -28.047774230606336, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -28.688508537399247, "status": "WELL BELOW", "recent_status": "WELL BELOW", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.002225575864670752, "criticality_score": 7.934946446631604e-05, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 999.2833940298136, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1860.562660834582, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 2310.768595108846, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } } } }, { "cid": "fips:26105", "county": "Mason", "fips": "26105", "reporting": 20.12, "current_votes": 718, "current_candidate_votes": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 349, "Haley Stevens": 332, "Mallory McMorrow": 37 }, "current_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 48.607242339832865, "Haley Stevens": 46.239554317548745, "Mallory McMorrow": 5.153203342618385 }, "estimated_remaining_votes": 2726.660439539037, "estimated_final_votes": 3444.660439539037, "turnout_disagreement_votes": 0.0, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 48.939170343713506, "Haley Stevens": 46.56819973258714, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.492629923699347 }, "remaining_sources": [ { "model": "v3", "remaining_votes": 2726.660439539037, "weight": 0.1342208488636769 }, { "model": "histgeo", "remaining_votes": 2726.660439539037, "weight": 0.05994207394479305 }, { "model": "latent", "remaining_votes": 2726.660439539037, "weight": 0.07672787409296966 }, { "model": "batchbias", "remaining_votes": 2726.660439539037, "weight": 0.045123489075924846 } ], "share_sources": [ { "model": "v0", "weight": 0.03630604611298715, "source": "statewide raw" }, { "model": "v1", "weight": 0.14599140026529184, "source": "county live" }, { "model": "v3", "weight": 0.15004242351696637, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "market", "weight": 0.0786646379365536, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "histgeo", "weight": 0.06573339512824654, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "latent", "weight": 0.08483492578364633, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "batchbias", "weight": 0.04883898267529022, "source": "county remaining" } ], "candidate_benchmarks": { "Abdul El-Sayed": { "opponent": "Haley Stevens", "expected_remaining_share_points": 48.939170343713506, "expected_final_county_share_points": 48.869983754507004, "current_county_share_points": 48.607242339832865, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 47.713444182807855, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 47.713444182807855, "required_final_county_share_points": 47.899746167577604, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 47.713444182807855, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": -797.8038543941432, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": false }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 47.713444182807855, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 47.713444182807855, "required_final_county_share_points": 47.899746167577604, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 47.713444182807855, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.36527802690067, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.36527802690067, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.415712715525174, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.024044322225107804, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999973, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 49.01695040235716, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 49.01695040235716, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.93155145112358, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.003259695682198218, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.9999999999999996, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": 1.2257261609056513, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "ABOVE", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.0022210187219011933, "criticality_score": 0.0018120023809071277, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -948.0065416853615, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -84.96008014937047, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 366.16959812486925, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Haley Stevens": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 46.56819973258714, "expected_final_county_share_points": 46.49969736141318, "current_county_share_points": 46.239554317548745, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 47.7939258934928, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 47.7939258934928, "required_final_county_share_points": 47.469934948342576, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 47.7939258934928, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 893.3112244704438, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 47.7939258934928, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 47.7939258934928, "required_final_county_share_points": 47.469934948342576, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 47.7939258934928, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.44591479929029, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.44591479929029, "required_final_county_share_points": 47.98602423715918, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.07865391656842785, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.999999999999999, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 49.09805234223422, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 49.09805234223422, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.5022311814121, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.10597932088248406, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -1.2257261609056584, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.0022210187219011933, "criticality_score": 0.001812002380907117, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1043.5139117616623, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1906.560373297653, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 2357.690051571893, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Mallory McMorrow": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 4.492629923699347, "expected_final_county_share_points": 4.630318884079818, "current_county_share_points": 5.153203342618385, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 35.9046884122628, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 35.9046884122628, "required_final_county_share_points": 29.49489369735634, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 35.9046884122628, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 20391.579130353086, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 35.9046884122628, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 35.9046884122628, "required_final_county_share_points": 29.49489369735634, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 35.9046884122628, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 36.53190383236086, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 36.53190383236086, "required_final_county_share_points": 29.991373249715085, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.159018308558073, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999906, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 37.156314149488324, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 37.156314149488324, "required_final_county_share_points": 30.485632390676837, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.213613509684069, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.999999999999993, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -31.412058488563453, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "WELL BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.0022210187219011933, "criticality_score": 7.070592723841467e-05, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1001.4383419527744, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1864.4848034887652, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 2315.614481763005, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } } } }, { "cid": "26105", "county": "26105", "fips": null, "reporting": 0.0, "current_votes": 0, "current_candidate_votes": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 0, "Haley Stevens": 0, "Mallory McMorrow": 0 }, "current_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": null, "Haley Stevens": null, "Mallory McMorrow": null }, "estimated_remaining_votes": 2726.660439539037, "estimated_final_votes": 2726.660439539037, "turnout_disagreement_votes": 0.0, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 48.56044532146647, "Haley Stevens": 47.148583173690966, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.2909715048425685 }, "remaining_sources": [ { "model": "market", "remaining_votes": 2726.660439539037, "weight": 0.1780093144963334 } ], "share_sources": [ { "model": "v0", "weight": 0.03630604611298715, "source": "statewide raw" }, { "model": "v3", "weight": 0.06301781787712588, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "market", "weight": 0.18729675699179427, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "histgeo", "weight": 0.02760802595386354, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "latent", "weight": 0.03563066882913146, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "batchbias", "weight": 0.020512372723621893, "source": "statewide fallback" } ], "candidate_benchmarks": { "Abdul El-Sayed": { "opponent": "Haley Stevens", "expected_remaining_share_points": 48.56044532146647, "expected_final_county_share_points": 48.56044532146646, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 47.33195894811292, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 47.33195894811292, "required_final_county_share_points": 47.33195894811292, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 47.33195894811292, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": -798.1825794163925, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": false }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 47.33195894811292, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 47.33195894811292, "required_final_county_share_points": 47.33195894811292, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 47.33195894811292, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 47.98518152904427, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 47.98518152904427, "required_final_county_share_points": 47.985181529044276, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.024044322225107804, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999973, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.63842198175606, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.63842198175606, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.63842198175606, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.003259695682198218, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.9999999999999996, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": 1.2284863733535474, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "ABOVE", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.0022210187219011933, "criticality_score": 0.001807931101293546, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -948.3852667076086, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -85.33880517161751, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 365.79087310262224, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Haley Stevens": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 47.148583173690966, "expected_final_county_share_points": 47.148583173690966, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.377069547044506, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.377069547044506, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.37706954704451, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 48.377069547044506, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 893.8916079115501, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.377069547044506, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.377069547044506, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.37706954704451, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 48.377069547044506, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 49.03026777887394, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 49.03026777887394, "required_final_county_share_points": 49.03026777887394, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.07865391656842785, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.999999999999999, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 49.68343517372752, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 49.68343517372752, "required_final_county_share_points": 49.68343517372752, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.10597932088248406, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -1.2284863733535403, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.0022210187219011933, "criticality_score": 0.0018079311012935565, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1044.094295202766, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1907.1407567387569, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 2358.2704350129966, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Mallory McMorrow": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 4.2909715048425685, "expected_final_county_share_points": 4.2909715048425685, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 35.067291975981384, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 35.067291975981384, "required_final_county_share_points": 35.067291975981384, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 35.067291975981384, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 20391.377471934233, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 35.067291975981384, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 35.067291975981384, "required_final_county_share_points": 35.067291975981384, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 35.067291975981384, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 35.695970947172064, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 35.695970947172064, "required_final_county_share_points": 35.695970947172064, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.159018308558073, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999906, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 36.32240180411807, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 36.32240180411807, "required_final_county_share_points": 36.32240180411807, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.213613509684069, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.999999999999993, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -30.776320471138817, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "WELL BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.0022210187219011933, "criticality_score": 7.216648019973679e-05, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1001.2366835339176, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1864.2831450699086, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 2315.4128233441484, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } } } }, { "cid": "26157", "county": "26157", "fips": null, "reporting": 0.0, "current_votes": 0, "current_candidate_votes": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 0, "Haley Stevens": 0, "Mallory McMorrow": 0 }, "current_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": null, "Haley Stevens": null, "Mallory McMorrow": null }, "estimated_remaining_votes": 2618.943835602582, "estimated_final_votes": 2618.943835602582, "turnout_disagreement_votes": 0.0, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 44.77362907114305, "Haley Stevens": 50.41595935107611, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.810411577780858 }, "remaining_sources": [ { "model": "market", "remaining_votes": 2618.943835602582, "weight": 0.1780093144963334 } ], "share_sources": [ { "model": "v0", "weight": 0.03630604611298715, "source": "statewide raw" }, { "model": "v3", "weight": 0.06301781787712588, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "market", "weight": 0.18729675699179427, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "histgeo", "weight": 0.02760802595386354, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "latent", "weight": 0.03563066882913146, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "batchbias", "weight": 0.020512372723621893, "source": "statewide fallback" } ], "candidate_benchmarks": { "Abdul El-Sayed": { "opponent": "Haley Stevens", "expected_remaining_share_points": 44.77362907114305, "expected_final_county_share_points": 44.77362907114305, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 43.558148221656204, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 43.558148221656204, "required_final_county_share_points": 43.558148221656204, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 43.558148221656204, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": -836.7957565041387, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": false }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 43.558148221656204, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 43.558148221656204, "required_final_county_share_points": 43.558148221656204, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 43.558148221656204, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 44.20388063296404, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 44.20388063296404, "required_final_county_share_points": 44.203880632964044, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.024044322225107804, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999973, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 44.850936194800624, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 44.850936194800624, "required_final_county_share_points": 44.850936194800624, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.003259695682198218, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.9999999999999996, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": 1.2154808494868448, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "ABOVE", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.002133277472373648, "criticality_score": 0.0017550893321554848, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -993.1762484344605, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -94.63286916688274, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 375.0516769964828, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Haley Stevens": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 50.41595935107611, "expected_final_county_share_points": 50.415959351076104, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 51.63144020056295, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 51.63144020056295, "required_final_county_share_points": 51.63144020056295, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 51.63144020056295, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 931.9853449263579, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 51.63144020056295, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 51.63144020056295, "required_final_county_share_points": 51.63144020056295, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 51.63144020056295, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 52.275847131293986, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 52.275847131293986, "required_final_county_share_points": 52.275847131293986, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.07865391656842785, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.999999999999999, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 52.91892627586393, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 52.91892627586393, "required_final_county_share_points": 52.91892627586393, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.10597932088248406, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -1.2154808494868377, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.002133277472373648, "criticality_score": 0.0017550893321554952, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1088.3658368566796, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1986.9092161242572, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 2456.593762287623, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Mallory McMorrow": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 4.810411577780858, "expected_final_county_share_points": 4.810411577780858, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 34.98972277045115, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 34.98972277045115, "required_final_county_share_points": 34.98972277045115, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 34.98972277045115, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 21230.41345143487, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 34.98972277045115, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 34.98972277045115, "required_final_county_share_points": 34.98972277045115, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 34.98972277045115, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 35.53719091224037, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 35.53719091224037, "required_final_county_share_points": 35.53719091224037, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.159018308558073, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999906, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 36.080266100812594, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 36.080266100812594, "required_final_county_share_points": 36.080266100812594, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.213613509684069, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.999999999999993, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -30.179311192670294, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "WELL BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.002133277472373648, "criticality_score": 7.068675155487846e-05, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1042.7602890833844, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1941.303668350962, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 2410.988214514328, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } } } }, { "cid": "fips:26157", "county": "Tuscola", "fips": "26157", "reporting": 41.07, "current_votes": 2125, "current_candidate_votes": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 786, "Haley Stevens": 1197, "Mallory McMorrow": 142 }, "current_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 36.98823529411765, "Haley Stevens": 56.32941176470588, "Mallory McMorrow": 6.682352941176471 }, "estimated_remaining_votes": 2618.9438356025817, "estimated_final_votes": 4743.943835602582, "turnout_disagreement_votes": 4.547473508864641e-13, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 41.824986232102596, "Haley Stevens": 52.617310696089746, "Mallory McMorrow": 5.5577030718076745 }, "remaining_sources": [ { "model": "v3", "remaining_votes": 2618.943835602582, "weight": 0.1342208488636769 }, { "model": "histgeo", "remaining_votes": 2618.943835602582, "weight": 0.05994207394479305 }, { "model": "latent", "remaining_votes": 2618.943835602582, "weight": 0.07672787409296966 }, { "model": "batchbias", "remaining_votes": 2618.943835602582, "weight": 0.045123489075924846 } ], "share_sources": [ { "model": "v0", "weight": 0.03630604611298715, "source": "statewide raw" }, { "model": "v1", "weight": 0.14599140026529184, "source": "county live" }, { "model": "v3", "weight": 0.15004242351696637, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "market", "weight": 0.0786646379365536, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "histgeo", "weight": 0.06573339512824654, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "latent", "weight": 0.08483492578364633, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "batchbias", "weight": 0.04883898267529022, "source": "county remaining" } ], "candidate_benchmarks": { "Abdul El-Sayed": { "opponent": "Haley Stevens", "expected_remaining_share_points": 41.824986232102596, "expected_final_county_share_points": 39.6584142617343, "current_county_share_points": 36.98823529411765, "recent_batch_votes": 350, "recent_batch_share_points": 36.857142857142854, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 40.632280170813765, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 40.632280170813765, "required_final_county_share_points": 38.99996839999035, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 40.632280170813765, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": -839.74439934318, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": false }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 40.632280170813765, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 40.632280170813765, "required_final_county_share_points": 38.99996839999035, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 40.632280170813765, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 41.265494949753275, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 41.265494949753275, "required_final_county_share_points": 39.349541244734084, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.024044322225107804, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999973, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 41.900958568092356, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 41.900958568092356, "required_final_county_share_points": 39.70035558480045, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.003259695682198218, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.9999999999999996, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": 1.1927060612888312, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -3.7751373136709105, "status": "ABOVE", "recent_status": "WELL BELOW", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.0021332774723736474, "criticality_score": 0.0017886028600109906, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -996.1248912735012, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -97.58151200592323, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 372.10303415744244, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Haley Stevens": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 52.617310696089746, "expected_final_county_share_points": 54.28010752593613, "current_county_share_points": 56.32941176470588, "recent_batch_votes": 350, "recent_batch_share_points": 58.857142857142854, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 53.81001675737858, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 53.81001675737858, "required_final_county_share_points": 54.93855338768008, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 53.81001675737858, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 934.1866962713723, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 53.81001675737858, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 53.81001675737858, "required_final_county_share_points": 54.93855338768008, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 53.81001675737858, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 54.44098836678847, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 54.44098836678847, "required_final_county_share_points": 55.2868878672122, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.07865391656842785, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.999999999999999, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 55.0697224697066, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 55.0697224697066, "required_final_county_share_points": 55.63398710787204, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.10597932088248406, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -1.1927060612888312, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": 5.047126099764277, "status": "BELOW", "recent_status": "WELL ABOVE", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.0021332774723736474, "criticality_score": 0.0017886028600109906, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1090.5671882016936, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1989.1105674692712, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 2458.795113632637, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Mallory McMorrow": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 5.5577030718076745, "expected_final_county_share_points": 6.061478212329574, "current_county_share_points": 6.682352941176471, "recent_batch_votes": 350, "recent_batch_share_points": 4.285714285714286, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 35.43310255073383, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 35.43310255073383, "required_final_county_share_points": 22.554505114187876, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 35.43310255073383, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 21231.160742928903, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 35.43310255073383, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 35.43310255073383, "required_final_county_share_points": 22.554505114187876, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 35.43310255073383, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 35.90706834318055, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 35.90706834318055, "required_final_county_share_points": 22.816162889539076, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.159018308558073, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999906, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 36.37514221222855, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 36.37514221222855, "required_final_county_share_points": 23.074567966924274, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.213613509684069, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.999999999999993, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -29.875399478926155, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -31.147388265019543, "status": "WELL BELOW", "recent_status": "WELL BELOW", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.0021332774723736474, "criticality_score": 7.140582250217081e-05, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1043.5075805774115, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1942.0509598449892, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 2411.735506008355, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } } } }, { "cid": "fips:26051", "county": "Gladwin", "fips": "26051", "reporting": 0.0, "current_votes": 0, "current_candidate_votes": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 0, "Haley Stevens": 0, "Mallory McMorrow": 0 }, "current_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": null, "Haley Stevens": null, "Mallory McMorrow": null }, "estimated_remaining_votes": 2590.3361413120724, "estimated_final_votes": 2590.3361413120724, "turnout_disagreement_votes": 0.0, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 49.097174862354414, "Haley Stevens": 47.03323172214603, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.8695934154995495 }, "remaining_sources": [ { "model": "v3", "remaining_votes": 2590.3361413120724, "weight": 0.1342208488636769 }, { "model": "histgeo", "remaining_votes": 2590.3361413120724, "weight": 0.05994207394479305 }, { "model": "latent", "remaining_votes": 2590.3361413120724, "weight": 0.07672787409296966 }, { "model": "batchbias", "remaining_votes": 2590.3361413120724, "weight": 0.045123489075924846 } ], "share_sources": [ { "model": "v0", "weight": 0.03630604611298715, "source": "statewide raw" }, { "model": "v3", "weight": 0.15004242351696637, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "market", "weight": 0.0786646379365536, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "histgeo", "weight": 0.06573339512824654, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "latent", "weight": 0.08483492578364633, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "batchbias", "weight": 0.04883898267529022, "source": "county remaining" } ], "candidate_benchmarks": { "Abdul El-Sayed": { "opponent": "Haley Stevens", "expected_remaining_share_points": 49.097174862354414, "expected_final_county_share_points": 49.097174862354414, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 47.86336733204149, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 47.86336733204149, "required_final_county_share_points": 47.86336733204149, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 47.86336733204149, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": -842.208270476059, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": false }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 47.86336733204149, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 47.86336733204149, "required_final_county_share_points": 47.86336733204149, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 47.86336733204149, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.5194723317759, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.5194723317759, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.5194723317759, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.024044322225107804, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999973, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 49.17547490885187, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 49.17547490885187, "required_final_county_share_points": 49.17547490885187, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.003259695682198218, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.9999999999999996, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": 1.233807530312923, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "ABOVE", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.0021099748917925505, "criticality_score": 0.0017101329339896398, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -1000.3158298841454, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -91.84892992329259, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 383.022816347165, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Haley Stevens": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 47.03323172214603, "expected_final_county_share_points": 47.033231722146034, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.26703925245896, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.26703925245896, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.26703925245896, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 48.26703925245896, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 938.3386770605597, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.26703925245896, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.26703925245896, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.26703925245896, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 48.26703925245896, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.92324019040962, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.92324019040962, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.92324019040963, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.07865391656842785, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.999999999999999, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 49.57953056676023, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 49.57953056676023, "required_final_county_share_points": 49.57953056676023, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.10597932088248406, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -1.2338075303129301, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.0021099748917925505, "criticality_score": 0.00171013293398963, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1096.4462364686458, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 2004.9131364294985, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 2479.784882699956, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Mallory McMorrow": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 3.8695934154995495, "expected_final_county_share_points": 3.86959341549955, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 33.767256558424904, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 33.767256558424904, "required_final_county_share_points": 33.767256558424904, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 33.767256558424904, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 21463.888373072437, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 33.767256558424904, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 33.767256558424904, "required_final_county_share_points": 33.767256558424904, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 33.767256558424904, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 34.42028951167481, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 34.42028951167481, "required_final_county_share_points": 34.42028951167481, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.159018308558073, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999906, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 35.072791030119745, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 35.072791030119745, "required_final_county_share_points": 35.072791030119745, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.213613509684069, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.999999999999993, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -29.897663142925353, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "WELL BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.0021099748917925505, "criticality_score": 7.05732378382165e-05, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1053.2825981619994, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1961.7494981228522, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 2436.6212443933096, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } } } }, { "cid": "26051", "county": "26051", "fips": null, "reporting": 0.0, "current_votes": 0, "current_candidate_votes": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 0, "Haley Stevens": 0, "Mallory McMorrow": 0 }, "current_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": null, "Haley Stevens": null, "Mallory McMorrow": null }, "estimated_remaining_votes": 2590.3361413120724, "estimated_final_votes": 2590.3361413120724, "turnout_disagreement_votes": 0.0, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 47.866155366725685, "Haley Stevens": 48.07259662711275, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.061248006161554 }, "remaining_sources": [ { "model": "market", "remaining_votes": 2590.3361413120724, "weight": 0.1780093144963334 } ], "share_sources": [ { "model": "v0", "weight": 0.03630604611298715, "source": "statewide raw" }, { "model": "v3", "weight": 0.06301781787712588, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "market", "weight": 0.18729675699179427, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "histgeo", "weight": 0.02760802595386354, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "latent", "weight": 0.03563066882913146, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "batchbias", "weight": 0.020512372723621893, "source": "statewide fallback" } ], "candidate_benchmarks": { "Abdul El-Sayed": { "opponent": "Haley Stevens", "expected_remaining_share_points": 47.866155366725685, "expected_final_county_share_points": 47.866155366725685, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 46.63499237555791, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 46.63499237555791, "required_final_county_share_points": 46.63499237555791, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 46.63499237555791, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": -843.4392899716851, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": false }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 46.63499237555791, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 46.63499237555791, "required_final_county_share_points": 46.63499237555791, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 46.63499237555791, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 47.28950516908663, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 47.28950516908663, "required_final_county_share_points": 47.28950516908664, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.024044322225107804, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999973, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 47.94433799359388, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 47.94433799359388, "required_final_county_share_points": 47.94433799359388, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.003259695682198218, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.9999999999999996, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": 1.2311629911677784, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "ABOVE", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.0021099748917925505, "criticality_score": 0.0017138063009766113, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -1001.5468493797741, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -93.07994941892133, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 381.79179685153633, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Haley Stevens": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 48.07259662711275, "expected_final_county_share_points": 48.07259662711275, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 49.30375961828052, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 49.30375961828052, "required_final_county_share_points": 49.303759618280516, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 49.30375961828052, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 939.3780419655236, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 49.30375961828052, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 49.30375961828052, "required_final_county_share_points": 49.303759618280516, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 49.30375961828052, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 49.95794612902271, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 49.95794612902271, "required_final_county_share_points": 49.95794612902271, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.07865391656842785, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.999999999999999, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 50.61180010634276, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 50.61180010634276, "required_final_county_share_points": 50.61180010634276, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.10597932088248406, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -1.2311629911677713, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.0021099748917925505, "criticality_score": 0.001713806300976621, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1097.4856013736126, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 2005.9525013344653, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 2480.824247604923, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Mallory McMorrow": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 4.061248006161554, "expected_final_county_share_points": 4.061248006161554, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 33.98016158619869, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 33.98016158619869, "required_final_county_share_points": 33.98016158619869, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 33.98016158619869, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 21464.080027663098, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 33.98016158619869, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 33.98016158619869, "required_final_county_share_points": 33.98016158619869, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 33.98016158619869, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 34.60618224899911, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 34.60618224899911, "required_final_county_share_points": 34.60618224899911, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.159018308558073, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999906, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 35.23057058958013, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 35.23057058958013, "required_final_county_share_points": 35.23057058958013, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.213613509684069, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.999999999999993, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -29.918913580037135, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "WELL BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.0021099748917925505, "criticality_score": 7.052311194883741e-05, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1053.4742527526614, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1961.9411527135142, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 2436.8128989839715, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } } } }, { "cid": "fips:26067", "county": "Ionia", "fips": "26067", "reporting": 53.0, "current_votes": 5141, "current_candidate_votes": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 2455, "Haley Stevens": 2478, "Mallory McMorrow": 208 }, "current_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 47.753355378331065, "Haley Stevens": 48.20073915580627, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.045905465862672 }, "estimated_remaining_votes": 2507.4500000000003, "estimated_final_votes": 7648.450000000001, "turnout_disagreement_votes": 1352.012225500406, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 48.31789410644857, "Haley Stevens": 47.71965950059066, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.962446392960773 }, "remaining_sources": [ { "model": "v3", "remaining_votes": 1155.4377744995945, "weight": 0.1342208488636769 }, { "model": "histgeo", "remaining_votes": 1155.4377744995945, "weight": 0.05994207394479305 }, { "model": "latent", "remaining_votes": 1155.4377744995945, "weight": 0.07672787409296966 }, { "model": "batchbias", "remaining_votes": 1155.4377744995945, "weight": 0.045123489075924846 } ], "share_sources": [ { "model": "v0", "weight": 0.03630604611298715, "source": "statewide raw" }, { "model": "v1", "weight": 0.14599140026529184, "source": "county live" }, { "model": "v3", "weight": 0.15004242351696637, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "market", "weight": 0.0786646379365536, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "histgeo", "weight": 0.06573339512824654, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "latent", "weight": 0.08483492578364633, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "batchbias", "weight": 0.04883898267529022, "source": "county remaining" } ], "candidate_benchmarks": { "Abdul El-Sayed": { "opponent": "Haley Stevens", "expected_remaining_share_points": 48.31789410644857, "expected_final_county_share_points": 47.93843243758074, "current_county_share_points": 47.753355378331065, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 47.085240180454335, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 47.085240180454335, "required_final_county_share_points": 47.53432205093584, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 47.085240180454335, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": -872.4504992845821, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": false }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 47.085240180454335, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 47.085240180454335, "required_final_county_share_points": 47.53432205093584, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 47.085240180454335, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 47.74061161574997, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 47.74061161574997, "required_final_county_share_points": 47.74917749294462, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.024044322225107804, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999973, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.396153505501104, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.396153505501104, "required_final_county_share_points": 47.96408881634432, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.003259695682198218, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.9999999999999996, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": 1.232653925994235, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "ABOVE", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.0020424594546039794, "criticality_score": 0.001656960977880771, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -1035.7844542385853, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -97.28731804271487, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 393.2817648312577, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Haley Stevens": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 47.71965950059066, "expected_final_county_share_points": 48.04302312426125, "current_county_share_points": 48.20073915580627, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.952313426584894, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.952313426584894, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.44713351090616, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 48.952313426584894, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 968.4880528916212, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.952313426584894, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.952313426584894, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.44713351090616, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 48.952313426584894, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 49.60750797680143, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 49.60750797680143, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.661930963323385, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.07865391656842785, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.999999999999999, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 50.262519206744194, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 50.262519206744194, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.87666831644984, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.10597932088248406, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -1.232653925994235, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.0020424594546039794, "criticality_score": 0.001656960977880771, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1131.8220078456247, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 2070.319144041495, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 2560.888226915468, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Mallory McMorrow": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 3.962446392960773, "expected_final_county_share_points": 4.018544438157991, "current_county_share_points": 4.045905465862672, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 33.8067514742809, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 33.8067514742809, "required_final_county_share_points": 13.802631772997884, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 33.8067514742809, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 22173.362529418006, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 33.8067514742809, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 33.8067514742809, "required_final_county_share_points": 13.802631772997884, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 33.8067514742809, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 34.44377800755872, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 34.44377800755872, "required_final_county_share_points": 14.011473065137785, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.159018308558073, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999906, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 35.07966717182443, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 35.07966717182443, "required_final_county_share_points": 14.219941484874868, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.213613509684069, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.999999999999993, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -29.84430508132013, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "WELL BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.0020424594546039794, "criticality_score": 6.84371590840752e-05, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1088.0647947379948, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 2026.5619309338651, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 2517.131013807838, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } } } }, { "cid": "26109", "county": "26109", "fips": null, "reporting": 0.0, "current_votes": 0, "current_candidate_votes": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 0, "Haley Stevens": 0, "Mallory McMorrow": 0 }, "current_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": null, "Haley Stevens": null, "Mallory McMorrow": null }, "estimated_remaining_votes": 2394.3909432300134, "estimated_final_votes": 2394.3909432300134, "turnout_disagreement_votes": 0.0, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 49.45326057381173, "Haley Stevens": 46.839178974492555, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.707560451695713 }, "remaining_sources": [ { "model": "market", "remaining_votes": 2394.3909432300134, "weight": 0.1780093144963334 } ], "share_sources": [ { "model": "v0", "weight": 0.03630604611298715, "source": "statewide raw" }, { "model": "v3", "weight": 0.06301781787712588, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "market", "weight": 0.18729675699179427, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "histgeo", "weight": 0.02760802595386354, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "latent", "weight": 0.03563066882913146, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "batchbias", "weight": 0.020512372723621893, "source": "statewide fallback" } ], "candidate_benchmarks": { "Abdul El-Sayed": { "opponent": "Haley Stevens", "expected_remaining_share_points": 49.45326057381173, "expected_final_county_share_points": 49.45326057381173, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.21753450149631, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.21753450149631, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.21753450149632, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 48.21753450149631, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": -914.7922460074215, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": false }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.21753450149631, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.21753450149631, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.21753450149632, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 48.21753450149631, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.874704590997396, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.874704590997396, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.874704590997396, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.024044322225107804, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999973, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 49.531670216098654, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 49.531670216098654, "required_final_county_share_points": 49.53167021609865, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.003259695682198218, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.9999999999999996, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": 1.2357260723154226, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "ABOVE", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.001950366475909103, "criticality_score": 0.00157831619774327, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -1085.8385517526865, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -103.02718136726328, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 410.70573694764585, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Haley Stevens": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 46.839178974492555, "expected_final_county_share_points": 46.839178974492555, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.07490504680796, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.07490504680796, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.074905046807956, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 48.07490504680796, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1011.0846855557257, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.07490504680796, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.07490504680796, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.074905046807956, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 48.07490504680796, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.73227317566207, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.73227317566207, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.73227317566208, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.07865391656842785, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.999999999999999, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 49.3898328994224, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 49.3898328994224, "required_final_county_share_points": 49.3898328994224, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.10597932088248406, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -1.2357260723154084, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.001950366475909103, "criticality_score": 0.001578316197743288, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1182.130991300991, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 2164.9423616864137, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 2678.6752800013232, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Mallory McMorrow": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 3.707560451695713, "expected_final_county_share_points": 3.707560451695713, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 33.27257907093374, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 33.27257907093374, "required_final_county_share_points": 33.27257907093374, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 33.27257907093374, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 23219.90890608179, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 33.27257907093374, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 33.27257907093374, "required_final_county_share_points": 33.27257907093374, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 33.27257907093374, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 33.937107256748334, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 33.937107256748334, "required_final_county_share_points": 33.937107256748334, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.159018308558073, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999906, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 34.60191950368675, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 34.60191950368675, "required_final_county_share_points": 34.60191950368675, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.213613509684069, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.999999999999993, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -29.565018619238025, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "WELL BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.001950366475909103, "criticality_score": 6.596872138074674e-05, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1138.999372778194, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 2121.810743163617, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 2635.5436614785267, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } } } }, { "cid": "fips:26109", "county": "Menominee", "fips": "26109", "reporting": 0.0, "current_votes": 0, "current_candidate_votes": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 0, "Haley Stevens": 0, "Mallory McMorrow": 0 }, "current_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": null, "Haley Stevens": null, "Mallory McMorrow": null }, "estimated_remaining_votes": 2394.3909432300134, "estimated_final_votes": 2394.3909432300134, "turnout_disagreement_votes": 0.0, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 49.158633168958325, "Haley Stevens": 46.97750573983265, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.8638610912090225 }, "remaining_sources": [ { "model": "v3", "remaining_votes": 2394.3909432300134, "weight": 0.1342208488636769 }, { "model": "histgeo", "remaining_votes": 2394.3909432300134, "weight": 0.05994207394479305 }, { "model": "latent", "remaining_votes": 2394.3909432300134, "weight": 0.07672787409296966 }, { "model": "batchbias", "remaining_votes": 2394.3909432300134, "weight": 0.045123489075924846 } ], "share_sources": [ { "model": "v0", "weight": 0.03630604611298715, "source": "statewide raw" }, { "model": "v3", "weight": 0.15004242351696637, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "market", "weight": 0.0786646379365536, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "histgeo", "weight": 0.06573339512824654, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "latent", "weight": 0.08483492578364633, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "batchbias", "weight": 0.04883898267529022, "source": "county remaining" } ], "candidate_benchmarks": { "Abdul El-Sayed": { "opponent": "Haley Stevens", "expected_remaining_share_points": 49.158633168958325, "expected_final_county_share_points": 49.15863316895833, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 47.924779857819296, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 47.924779857819296, "required_final_county_share_points": 47.92477985781929, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 47.924779857819296, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": -915.0868734122743, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": false }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 47.924779857819296, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 47.924779857819296, "required_final_county_share_points": 47.92477985781929, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 47.924779857819296, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.5809188097206, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.5809188097206, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.5809188097206, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.024044322225107804, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999973, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 49.23693351679498, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 49.23693351679498, "required_final_county_share_points": 49.23693351679498, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.003259695682198218, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.9999999999999996, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": 1.233853311139029, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "ABOVE", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.001950366475909103, "criticality_score": 0.001580711789887427, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -1086.1331791575399, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -103.3218087721167, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 410.4111095427924, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Haley Stevens": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 46.97750573983265, "expected_final_county_share_points": 46.97750573983265, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.21135905097168, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.21135905097168, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.21135905097168, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 48.21135905097168, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1011.2230123210651, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.21135905097168, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.21135905097168, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.21135905097168, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 48.21135905097168, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.86761577390726, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.86761577390726, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.86761577390726, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.07865391656842785, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.999999999999999, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 49.52398377784789, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 49.52398377784789, "required_final_county_share_points": 49.52398377784789, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.10597932088248406, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -1.233853311139029, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.001950366475909103, "criticality_score": 0.001580711789887427, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1182.269318066331, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 2165.080688451754, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 2678.8136067666637, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Mallory McMorrow": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 3.8638610912090225, "expected_final_county_share_points": 3.8638610912090225, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 33.76927744870776, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 33.76927744870776, "required_final_county_share_points": 33.76927744870776, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 33.76927744870776, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 23220.06520672131, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 33.76927744870776, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 33.76927744870776, "required_final_county_share_points": 33.76927744870776, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 33.76927744870776, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 34.42351003107981, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 34.42351003107981, "required_final_county_share_points": 34.42351003107981, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.159018308558073, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999906, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 35.07725426483747, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 35.07725426483747, "required_final_county_share_points": 35.07725426483747, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.213613509684069, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.999999999999993, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -29.905416357498737, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "WELL BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.001950366475909103, "criticality_score": 6.521783387309542e-05, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1139.1556734177072, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 2121.9670438031303, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 2635.69996211804, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } } } }, { "cid": "26129", "county": "26129", "fips": null, "reporting": 0.0, "current_votes": 0, "current_candidate_votes": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 0, "Haley Stevens": 0, "Mallory McMorrow": 0 }, "current_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": null, "Haley Stevens": null, "Mallory McMorrow": null }, "estimated_remaining_votes": 2287.5117442761625, "estimated_final_votes": 2287.5117442761625, "turnout_disagreement_votes": 0.0, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 47.866155366725685, "Haley Stevens": 48.07259662711275, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.061248006161554 }, "remaining_sources": [ { "model": "market", "remaining_votes": 2287.5117442761625, "weight": 0.1780093144963334 } ], "share_sources": [ { "model": "v0", "weight": 0.03630604611298715, "source": "statewide raw" }, { "model": "v3", "weight": 0.06301781787712588, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "market", "weight": 0.18729675699179427, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "histgeo", "weight": 0.02760802595386354, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "latent", "weight": 0.03563066882913146, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "batchbias", "weight": 0.020512372723621893, "source": "statewide fallback" } ], "candidate_benchmarks": { "Abdul El-Sayed": { "opponent": "Haley Stevens", "expected_remaining_share_points": 47.866155366725685, "expected_final_county_share_points": 47.86615536672569, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 46.63499237555791, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 46.63499237555791, "required_final_county_share_points": 46.6349923755579, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 46.63499237555791, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": -961.4317045395243, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": false }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 46.63499237555791, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 46.63499237555791, "required_final_county_share_points": 46.6349923755579, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 46.63499237555791, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 47.28950516908663, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 47.28950516908663, "required_final_county_share_points": 47.289505169086624, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.024044322225107804, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999973, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 47.94433799359388, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 47.94433799359388, "required_final_county_share_points": 47.94433799359388, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.003259695682198218, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.9999999999999996, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": 1.2311629911677784, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "ABOVE", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.0018633073399726766, "criticality_score": 0.0015134530142148757, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -1140.46979095556, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -111.73861611345214, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 425.99739767106996, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Haley Stevens": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 48.07259662711275, "expected_final_county_share_points": 48.07259662711275, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 49.30375961828052, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 49.30375961828052, "required_final_county_share_points": 49.30375961828052, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 49.30375961828052, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1057.3704565333628, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 49.30375961828052, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 49.30375961828052, "required_final_county_share_points": 49.30375961828052, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 49.30375961828052, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 49.95794612902271, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 49.95794612902271, "required_final_county_share_points": 49.95794612902271, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.07865391656842785, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.999999999999999, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 50.61180010634276, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 50.61180010634276, "required_final_county_share_points": 50.61180010634276, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.10597932088248406, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -1.2311629911677713, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.0018633073399726766, "criticality_score": 0.0015134530142148844, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1236.4085429493985, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 2265.139717791506, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 2802.8757315760286, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Mallory McMorrow": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 4.061248006161554, "expected_final_county_share_points": 4.061248006161554, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 33.98016158619869, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 33.98016158619869, "required_final_county_share_points": 33.98016158619869, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 33.98016158619869, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 24304.99101471697, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 33.98016158619869, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 33.98016158619869, "required_final_county_share_points": 33.98016158619869, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 33.98016158619869, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 34.60618224899911, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 34.60618224899911, "required_final_county_share_points": 34.60618224899911, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.159018308558073, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999906, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 35.23057058958013, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 35.23057058958013, "required_final_county_share_points": 35.23057058958013, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.213613509684069, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.999999999999993, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -29.918913580037135, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "WELL BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.0018633073399726766, "criticality_score": 6.22785762253057e-05, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1192.3971943284473, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 2221.1283691705544, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 2758.864382955077, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } } } }, { "cid": "fips:26129", "county": "Ogemaw", "fips": "26129", "reporting": 0.0, "current_votes": 0, "current_candidate_votes": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 0, "Haley Stevens": 0, "Mallory McMorrow": 0 }, "current_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": null, "Haley Stevens": null, "Mallory McMorrow": null }, "estimated_remaining_votes": 2287.5117442761625, "estimated_final_votes": 2287.5117442761625, "turnout_disagreement_votes": 0.0, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 49.17026802919363, "Haley Stevens": 46.960971292186954, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.868760678619411 }, "remaining_sources": [ { "model": "v3", "remaining_votes": 2287.5117442761625, "weight": 0.1342208488636769 }, { "model": "histgeo", "remaining_votes": 2287.5117442761625, "weight": 0.05994207394479305 }, { "model": "latent", "remaining_votes": 2287.5117442761625, "weight": 0.07672787409296966 }, { "model": "batchbias", "remaining_votes": 2287.5117442761625, "weight": 0.045123489075924846 } ], "share_sources": [ { "model": "v0", "weight": 0.03630604611298715, "source": "statewide raw" }, { "model": "v3", "weight": 0.15004242351696637, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "market", "weight": 0.0786646379365536, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "histgeo", "weight": 0.06573339512824654, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "latent", "weight": 0.08483492578364633, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "batchbias", "weight": 0.04883898267529022, "source": "county remaining" } ], "candidate_benchmarks": { "Abdul El-Sayed": { "opponent": "Haley Stevens", "expected_remaining_share_points": 49.17026802919363, "expected_final_county_share_points": 49.17026802919363, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 47.93648486498287, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 47.93648486498287, "required_final_county_share_points": 47.93648486498287, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 47.93648486498287, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": -960.1275918770546, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": false }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 47.93648486498287, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 47.93648486498287, "required_final_county_share_points": 47.93648486498287, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 47.93648486498287, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.592588835124054, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.592588835124054, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.592588835124054, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.024044322225107804, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999973, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 49.248563296415696, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 49.248563296415696, "required_final_county_share_points": 49.248563296415696, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.003259695682198218, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.9999999999999996, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": 1.233783164210756, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "ABOVE", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.0018633073399726766, "criticality_score": 0.0015102389090911477, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -1139.165678293092, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -110.43450345098418, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 427.30151033353786, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Haley Stevens": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 46.960971292186954, "expected_final_county_share_points": 46.960971292186954, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.19475445639772, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.19475445639772, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.19475445639772, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 48.19475445639772, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1056.258831198435, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.19475445639772, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.19475445639772, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.19475445639772, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 48.19475445639772, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.850981464921446, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.850981464921446, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.85098146492145, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.07865391656842785, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.999999999999999, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 49.50732502491718, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 49.50732502491718, "required_final_county_share_points": 49.50732502491717, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.10597932088248406, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -1.233783164210763, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.0018633073399726766, "criticality_score": 0.001510238909091139, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1235.2969176144727, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 2264.02809245658, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 2801.7641062411026, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Mallory McMorrow": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 3.868760678619411, "expected_final_county_share_points": 3.868760678619411, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 33.792447477993186, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 33.792447477993186, "required_final_county_share_points": 33.792447477993186, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 33.792447477993186, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 24304.79852738943, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 33.792447477993186, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 33.792447477993186, "required_final_county_share_points": 33.792447477993186, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 33.792447477993186, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 34.44669097347726, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 34.44669097347726, "required_final_county_share_points": 34.44669097347726, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.159018308558073, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999906, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 35.10042949443576, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 35.10042949443576, "required_final_county_share_points": 35.10042949443576, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.213613509684069, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.999999999999993, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -29.923686799373776, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "WELL BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.0018633073399726766, "criticality_score": 6.226864197802226e-05, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1192.204707000905, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 2220.9358818430123, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 2758.671895627535, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } } } }, { "cid": "26035", "county": "26035", "fips": null, "reporting": 0.0, "current_votes": 0, "current_candidate_votes": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 0, "Haley Stevens": 0, "Mallory McMorrow": 0 }, "current_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": null, "Haley Stevens": null, "Mallory McMorrow": null }, "estimated_remaining_votes": 2166.541410974669, "estimated_final_votes": 2166.541410974669, "turnout_disagreement_votes": 0.0, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 45.445935915957946, "Haley Stevens": 50.11140943147776, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.442654652564292 }, "remaining_sources": [ { "model": "market", "remaining_votes": 2166.541410974669, "weight": 0.1780093144963334 } ], "share_sources": [ { "model": "v0", "weight": 0.03630604611298715, "source": "statewide raw" }, { "model": "v3", "weight": 0.06301781787712588, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "market", "weight": 0.18729675699179427, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "histgeo", "weight": 0.02760802595386354, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "latent", "weight": 0.03563066882913146, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "batchbias", "weight": 0.020512372723621893, "source": "statewide fallback" } ], "candidate_benchmarks": { "Abdul El-Sayed": { "opponent": "Haley Stevens", "expected_remaining_share_points": 45.445935915957946, "expected_final_county_share_points": 45.44593591595794, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 44.224048574337296, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 44.224048574337296, "required_final_county_share_points": 44.224048574337296, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 44.224048574337296, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": -1020.2067658109314, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": false }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 44.224048574337296, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 44.224048574337296, "required_final_county_share_points": 44.224048574337296, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 44.224048574337296, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 44.873265984696204, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 44.873265984696204, "required_final_county_share_points": 44.873265984696204, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.024044322225107804, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999973, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 45.523628367667136, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 45.523628367667136, "required_final_county_share_points": 45.523628367667136, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.003259695682198218, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.9999999999999996, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": 1.2218873416206506, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "ABOVE", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.0017647701803171578, "criticality_score": 0.001444298602829009, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -1209.2415672113657, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -123.07047801179256, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 444.69039681910385, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Haley Stevens": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 50.11140943147776, "expected_final_county_share_points": 50.11140943147776, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 51.33329677309841, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 51.33329677309841, "required_final_county_share_points": 51.33329677309841, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 51.33329677309841, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1115.764111158367, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 51.33329677309841, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 51.33329677309841, "required_final_county_share_points": 51.33329677309841, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 51.33329677309841, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 51.981365810176314, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 51.981365810176314, "required_final_county_share_points": 51.981365810176314, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.07865391656842785, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.999999999999999, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 52.62828309666362, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 52.62828309666362, "required_final_county_share_points": 52.62828309666362, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.10597932088248406, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -1.2218873416206506, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.0017647701803171578, "criticality_score": 0.001444298602829009, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1304.7989125588015, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 2390.970001758374, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 2958.730876589271, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Mallory McMorrow": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 4.442654652564292, "expected_final_county_share_points": 4.442654652564292, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 34.20747998892426, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 34.20747998892426, "required_final_county_share_points": 34.20747998892426, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 34.20747998892426, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 25662.231588016784, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 34.20747998892426, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 34.20747998892426, "required_final_county_share_points": 34.20747998892426, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 34.20747998892426, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 34.77966281710158, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 34.77966281710158, "required_final_county_share_points": 34.77966281710158, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.159018308558073, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999906, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 35.348458241679495, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 35.348458241679495, "required_final_county_share_points": 35.348458241679495, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.213613509684069, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.999999999999993, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -29.76482533635997, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "WELL BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.0017647701803171578, "criticality_score": 5.9290459808657386e-05, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1259.130157779888, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 2345.3012469794608, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 2913.0621218103574, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } } } }, { "cid": "fips:26035", "county": "Clare", "fips": "26035", "reporting": 24.98, "current_votes": 650, "current_candidate_votes": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 235, "Haley Stevens": 378, "Mallory McMorrow": 37 }, "current_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 36.15384615384615, "Haley Stevens": 58.15384615384615, "Mallory McMorrow": 5.6923076923076925 }, "estimated_remaining_votes": 2166.5414109746685, "estimated_final_votes": 2816.5414109746685, "turnout_disagreement_votes": 4.547473508864641e-13, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 42.38135594609147, "Haley Stevens": 52.81051457809568, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.808129475812841 }, "remaining_sources": [ { "model": "v3", "remaining_votes": 2166.541410974669, "weight": 0.1342208488636769 }, { "model": "histgeo", "remaining_votes": 2166.541410974669, "weight": 0.05994207394479305 }, { "model": "latent", "remaining_votes": 2166.541410974669, "weight": 0.07672787409296966 }, { "model": "batchbias", "remaining_votes": 2166.541410974669, "weight": 0.045123489075924846 } ], "share_sources": [ { "model": "v0", "weight": 0.03630604611298715, "source": "statewide raw" }, { "model": "v1", "weight": 0.14599140026529184, "source": "county live" }, { "model": "v3", "weight": 0.15004242351696637, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "market", "weight": 0.0786646379365536, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "histgeo", "weight": 0.06573339512824654, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "latent", "weight": 0.08483492578364633, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "batchbias", "weight": 0.04883898267529022, "source": "county remaining" } ], "candidate_benchmarks": { "Abdul El-Sayed": { "opponent": "Haley Stevens", "expected_remaining_share_points": 42.38135594609147, "expected_final_county_share_points": 40.94417439101585, "current_county_share_points": 36.15384615384615, "recent_batch_votes": 253, "recent_batch_share_points": 37.15415019762846, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 41.177752821799324, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 41.177752821799324, "required_final_county_share_points": 40.01833818601753, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 41.177752821799324, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": -1023.2713457807967, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": false }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 41.177752821799324, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 41.177752821799324, "required_final_county_share_points": 40.01833818601753, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 41.177752821799324, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 41.81678908809404, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 41.81678908809404, "required_final_county_share_points": 40.50989798650455, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.024044322225107804, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999973, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 42.45801255709152, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 42.45801255709152, "required_final_county_share_points": 41.0031402281626, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.003259695682198218, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.9999999999999996, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": 1.2036031242921439, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -4.023602624170863, "status": "ABOVE", "recent_status": "WELL BELOW", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.0017647701803171576, "criticality_score": 0.001466239281619549, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -1212.3061471812323, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -126.13505798165906, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 441.6258168492374, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Haley Stevens": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 52.81051457809568, "expected_final_county_share_points": 54.04364593228227, "current_county_share_points": 58.15384615384615, "recent_batch_votes": 253, "recent_batch_share_points": 55.73122529644269, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 54.01411770238782, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 54.01411770238782, "required_final_county_share_points": 54.9694821372806, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 54.01411770238782, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1118.463216304984, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 54.01411770238782, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 54.01411770238782, "required_final_county_share_points": 54.9694821372806, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 54.01411770238782, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 54.650971632401145, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 54.650971632401145, "required_final_county_share_points": 55.4593632399477, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.07865391656842785, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.999999999999999, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 55.28564809133886, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 55.28564809133886, "required_final_county_share_points": 55.94756938721094, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.10597932088248406, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -1.2036031242921439, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": 1.7171075940548661, "status": "BELOW", "recent_status": "ABOVE", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.0017647701803171576, "criticality_score": 0.001466239281619549, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1307.4980177054194, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 2393.669106904992, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 2961.429981735889, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Mallory McMorrow": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 4.808129475812841, "expected_final_county_share_points": 5.012179676701871, "current_county_share_points": 5.6923076923076925, "recent_batch_votes": 253, "recent_batch_share_points": 7.114624505928854, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 33.82748144262121, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 33.82748144262121, "required_final_county_share_points": 27.334460297451812, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 33.82748144262121, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 25662.597062840036, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 33.82748144262121, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 33.82748144262121, "required_final_county_share_points": 27.334460297451812, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 33.82748144262121, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 34.3363603894186, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 34.3363603894186, "required_final_county_share_points": 27.725900418699023, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.159018308558073, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999906, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 34.84055919859703, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 34.84055919859703, "required_final_county_share_points": 28.11374048211607, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.213613509684069, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.999999999999993, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -29.019351966808372, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -26.712856936692358, "status": "WELL BELOW", "recent_status": "WELL BELOW", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.0017647701803171576, "criticality_score": 6.081356269897614e-05, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1259.4956326031365, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 2345.666721802709, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 2913.4275966336063, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } } } }, { "cid": "26015", "county": "26015", "fips": null, "reporting": 0.0, "current_votes": 0, "current_candidate_votes": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 0, "Haley Stevens": 0, "Mallory McMorrow": 0 }, "current_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": null, "Haley Stevens": null, "Mallory McMorrow": null }, "estimated_remaining_votes": 2084.356984925492, "estimated_final_votes": 2084.356984925492, "turnout_disagreement_votes": 0.0, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 46.64391631668367, "Haley Stevens": 48.84379756353746, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.512286119778873 }, "remaining_sources": [ { "model": "market", "remaining_votes": 2084.356984925492, "weight": 0.1780093144963334 } ], "share_sources": [ { "model": "v0", "weight": 0.03630604611298715, "source": "statewide raw" }, { "model": "v3", "weight": 0.06301781787712588, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "market", "weight": 0.18729675699179427, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "histgeo", "weight": 0.02760802595386354, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "latent", "weight": 0.03563066882913146, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "batchbias", "weight": 0.020512372723621893, "source": "statewide fallback" } ], "candidate_benchmarks": { "Abdul El-Sayed": { "opponent": "Haley Stevens", "expected_remaining_share_points": 46.64391631668367, "expected_final_county_share_points": 46.64391631668368, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 45.41984231326979, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 45.41984231326979, "required_final_county_share_points": 45.41984231326979, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 45.41984231326979, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": -1061.0265665736888, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": false }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 45.41984231326979, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 45.41984231326979, "required_final_county_share_points": 45.41984231326979, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 45.41984231326979, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 46.07042309822127, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 46.07042309822127, "required_final_county_share_points": 46.07042309822127, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.024044322225107804, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999973, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 46.72169308870616, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 46.72169308870616, "required_final_county_share_points": 46.72169308870616, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.003259695682198218, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.9999999999999996, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": 1.2240740034138824, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "ABOVE", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.0016978263297895927, "criticality_score": 0.0013870291543276291, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -1257.5148496803638, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -128.51695672180443, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 461.63024730731416, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Haley Stevens": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 48.84379756353746, "expected_final_county_share_points": 48.84379756353745, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 50.067871566951325, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 50.067871566951325, "required_final_county_share_points": 50.067871566951325, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 50.067871566951325, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1156.5142804539098, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 50.067871566951325, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 50.067871566951325, "required_final_county_share_points": 50.067871566951325, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 50.067871566951325, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 50.71775779792909, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 50.71775779792909, "required_final_county_share_points": 50.71775779792909, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.07865391656842785, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.999999999999999, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 51.36694414022603, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 51.36694414022603, "required_final_county_share_points": 51.36694414022603, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.10597932088248406, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -1.2240740034138682, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.0016978263297895927, "criticality_score": 0.0013870291543276452, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1353.002563560585, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 2482.000456519144, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 3072.147660548263, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Mallory McMorrow": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 4.512286119778873, "expected_final_county_share_points": 4.5122861197788735, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 34.96102339891444, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 34.96102339891444, "required_final_county_share_points": 34.96102339891444, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 34.96102339891444, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 26673.966050618885, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 34.96102339891444, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 34.96102339891444, "required_final_county_share_points": 34.96102339891444, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 34.96102339891444, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 35.55008673250949, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 35.55008673250949, "required_final_county_share_points": 35.55008673250949, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.159018308558073, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999906, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 36.135803215185874, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 36.135803215185874, "required_final_county_share_points": 36.135803215185874, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.213613509684069, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.999999999999993, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -30.44873727913557, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "WELL BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.0016978263297895927, "criticality_score": 5.576015564208623e-05, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1308.6710521168263, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 2437.668945075385, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 3027.8161491045043, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } } } }, { "cid": "fips:26015", "county": "Barry", "fips": "26015", "reporting": 51.57000000000001, "current_votes": 3040, "current_candidate_votes": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 1226, "Haley Stevens": 1638, "Mallory McMorrow": 176 }, "current_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 40.328947368421055, "Haley Stevens": 53.881578947368425, "Mallory McMorrow": 5.7894736842105265 }, "estimated_remaining_votes": 2084.3569849254914, "estimated_final_votes": 5124.356984925491, "turnout_disagreement_votes": 4.547473508864641e-13, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 43.49244399419316, "Haley Stevens": 51.41126400606495, "Mallory McMorrow": 5.096291999741883 }, "remaining_sources": [ { "model": "v3", "remaining_votes": 2084.356984925492, "weight": 0.1342208488636769 }, { "model": "histgeo", "remaining_votes": 2084.356984925492, "weight": 0.05994207394479305 }, { "model": "latent", "remaining_votes": 2084.356984925492, "weight": 0.07672787409296966 }, { "model": "batchbias", "remaining_votes": 2084.356984925492, "weight": 0.045123489075924846 } ], "share_sources": [ { "model": "v0", "weight": 0.03630604611298715, "source": "statewide raw" }, { "model": "v1", "weight": 0.14599140026529184, "source": "county live" }, { "model": "v3", "weight": 0.15004242351696637, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "market", "weight": 0.0786646379365536, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "histgeo", "weight": 0.06573339512824654, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "latent", "weight": 0.08483492578364633, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "batchbias", "weight": 0.04883898267529022, "source": "county remaining" } ], "candidate_benchmarks": { "Abdul El-Sayed": { "opponent": "Haley Stevens", "expected_remaining_share_points": 43.49244399419316, "expected_final_county_share_points": 41.6157149195721, "current_county_share_points": 40.328947368421055, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 42.28555517742893, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 42.28555517742893, "required_final_county_share_points": 41.12480705685856, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 42.28555517742893, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": -1064.1780388961795, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": false }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 42.28555517742893, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 42.28555517742893, "required_final_county_share_points": 41.12480705685856, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 42.28555517742893, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 42.92653693266351, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 42.92653693266351, "required_final_county_share_points": 41.38552948557757, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.024044322225107804, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999973, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 43.56925521223996, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 43.56925521223996, "required_final_county_share_points": 41.64695825397044, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.003259695682198218, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.9999999999999996, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": 1.206888816764227, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "ABOVE", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.0016978263297895923, "criticality_score": 0.0014067794035424166, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -1260.6663220028547, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -131.66842904429498, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 458.47877498482376, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Haley Stevens": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 51.41126400606495, "expected_final_county_share_points": 52.876766398590355, "current_county_share_points": 53.881578947368425, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 52.61815282282918, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 52.61815282282918, "required_final_county_share_points": 53.3676742613039, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 52.61815282282918, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1159.0817468964374, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 52.61815282282918, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 52.61815282282918, "required_final_county_share_points": 53.3676742613039, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 52.61815282282918, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 53.257398750735874, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 53.257398750735874, "required_final_county_share_points": 53.62769063386287, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.07865391656842785, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.999999999999999, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 53.89490956766841, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 53.89490956766841, "required_final_county_share_points": 53.88700124164211, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.10597932088248406, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -1.2068888167642342, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.0016978263297895923, "criticality_score": 0.0014067794035424082, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1355.5700300031128, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 2484.567922961672, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 3074.715126990791, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Mallory McMorrow": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 5.096291999741883, "expected_final_county_share_points": 5.507518681837553, "current_county_share_points": 5.7894736842105265, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 35.14709742579091, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 35.14709742579091, "required_final_county_share_points": 17.730829114089357, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 35.14709742579091, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 26674.550056498854, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 35.14709742579091, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 35.14709742579091, "required_final_county_share_points": 17.730829114089357, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 35.14709742579091, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 35.66348316440048, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 35.66348316440048, "required_final_county_share_points": 17.940871510501832, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.159018308558073, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999906, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 36.17476739848637, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 36.17476739848637, "required_final_county_share_points": 18.148838845278508, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.213613509684069, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.999999999999993, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -30.050805426049028, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "WELL BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.0016978263297895923, "criticality_score": 5.6498529930178197e-05, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1309.2550579967897, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 2438.252950955349, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 3028.400154984468, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } } } }, { "cid": "26117", "county": "26117", "fips": null, "reporting": 0.0, "current_votes": 0, "current_candidate_votes": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 0, "Haley Stevens": 0, "Mallory McMorrow": 0 }, "current_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": null, "Haley Stevens": null, "Mallory McMorrow": null }, "estimated_remaining_votes": 2083.0147443372043, "estimated_final_votes": 2083.0147443372043, "turnout_disagreement_votes": 0.0, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 45.958200225979986, "Haley Stevens": 50.22991264466877, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.8118871293512493 }, "remaining_sources": [ { "model": "market", "remaining_votes": 2083.0147443372043, "weight": 0.1780093144963334 } ], "share_sources": [ { "model": "v0", "weight": 0.03630604611298715, "source": "statewide raw" }, { "model": "v3", "weight": 0.06301781787712588, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "market", "weight": 0.18729675699179427, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "histgeo", "weight": 0.02760802595386354, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "latent", "weight": 0.03563066882913146, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "batchbias", "weight": 0.020512372723621893, "source": "statewide fallback" } ], "candidate_benchmarks": { "Abdul El-Sayed": { "opponent": "Haley Stevens", "expected_remaining_share_points": 45.958200225979986, "expected_final_county_share_points": 45.95820022597999, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 44.727600691994006, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 44.727600691994006, "required_final_county_share_points": 44.727600691994006, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 44.727600691994006, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": -1062.4260367482882, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": false }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 44.727600691994006, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 44.727600691994006, "required_final_county_share_points": 44.727600691994006, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 44.727600691994006, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 45.38148176988802, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 45.38148176988802, "required_final_county_share_points": 45.38148176988802, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.024044322225107804, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999973, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 46.03643721715968, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 46.03643721715968, "required_final_county_share_points": 46.03643721715968, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.003259695682198218, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.9999999999999996, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": 1.2305995339859805, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "ABOVE", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.0016967329991230188, "criticality_score": 0.0013787856668750766, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -1259.0409318001853, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -129.31554192873077, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 461.21193762770497, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Haley Stevens": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 50.22991264466877, "expected_final_county_share_points": 50.22991264466878, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 51.46051217865475, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 51.46051217865475, "required_final_county_share_points": 51.46051217865475, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 51.46051217865475, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1158.6141496189368, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 51.46051217865475, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 51.46051217865475, "required_final_county_share_points": 51.46051217865475, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 51.46051217865475, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 52.11331505963304, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 52.11331505963304, "required_final_county_share_points": 52.11331505963304, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.07865391656842785, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.999999999999999, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 52.76503593863689, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 52.76503593863689, "required_final_county_share_points": 52.76503593863689, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.10597932088248406, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -1.2305995339859805, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.0016967329991230188, "criticality_score": 0.0013787856668750766, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1355.229044670834, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 2484.954434542288, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 3075.481914098724, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Mallory McMorrow": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 3.8118871293512493, "expected_final_county_share_points": 3.8118871293512493, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 32.31217232095501, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 32.31217232095501, "required_final_county_share_points": 32.31217232095501, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 32.31217232095501, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 26690.450754810023, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 32.31217232095501, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 32.31217232095501, "required_final_county_share_points": 32.31217232095501, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 32.31217232095501, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 32.9164985925134, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 32.9164985925134, "required_final_county_share_points": 32.9164985925134, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.159018308558073, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999906, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 33.51957975430659, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 33.51957975430659, "required_final_county_share_points": 33.51957975430659, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.213613509684069, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.999999999999993, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -28.50028519160376, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "WELL BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.0016967329991230188, "criticality_score": 5.9533895458101583e-05, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1308.8110191555165, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 2438.5364090269704, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 3029.0638885834064, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } } } }, { "cid": "fips:26117", "county": "Montcalm", "fips": "26117", "reporting": 63.12, "current_votes": 3207, "current_candidate_votes": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 1280, "Haley Stevens": 1803, "Mallory McMorrow": 124 }, "current_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 39.91269098846274, "Haley Stevens": 56.22076707202993, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.8665419395073277 }, "estimated_remaining_votes": 2083.0147443372043, "estimated_final_votes": 5290.014744337204, "turnout_disagreement_votes": 0.0, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 42.80737331678564, "Haley Stevens": 53.346561235940285, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.846065447274072 }, "remaining_sources": [ { "model": "v3", "remaining_votes": 2083.0147443372043, "weight": 0.1342208488636769 }, { "model": "histgeo", "remaining_votes": 2083.0147443372043, "weight": 0.05994207394479305 }, { "model": "latent", "remaining_votes": 2083.0147443372043, "weight": 0.07672787409296966 }, { "model": "batchbias", "remaining_votes": 2083.0147443372043, "weight": 0.045123489075924846 } ], "share_sources": [ { "model": "v0", "weight": 0.03630604611298715, "source": "statewide raw" }, { "model": "v1", "weight": 0.14599140026529184, "source": "county live" }, { "model": "v3", "weight": 0.15004242351696637, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "market", "weight": 0.0786646379365536, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "histgeo", "weight": 0.06573339512824654, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "latent", "weight": 0.08483492578364633, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "batchbias", "weight": 0.04883898267529022, "source": "county remaining" } ], "candidate_benchmarks": { "Abdul El-Sayed": { "opponent": "Haley Stevens", "expected_remaining_share_points": 42.80737331678564, "expected_final_county_share_points": 41.05251124634076, "current_county_share_points": 39.91269098846274, "recent_batch_votes": 860, "recent_batch_share_points": 41.27906976744186, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 41.59162035676937, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 41.59162035676937, "required_final_county_share_points": 40.573792100255886, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 41.59162035676937, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": -1065.5768636574817, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": false }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 41.59162035676937, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 41.59162035676937, "required_final_county_share_points": 40.573792100255886, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 41.59162035676937, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 42.237107035777385, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 42.237107035777385, "required_final_county_share_points": 40.82796119705968, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.024044322225107804, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999973, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 42.88480384344459, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 42.88480384344459, "required_final_county_share_points": 41.08300056186961, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.003259695682198218, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.9999999999999996, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": 1.2157529600162746, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -0.31255058932750757, "status": "ABOVE", "recent_status": "ON BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.0016967329991230188, "criticality_score": 0.0013956231692829318, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -1262.1917587093794, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -132.46636883792513, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 458.06111071851063, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Haley Stevens": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 53.346561235940285, "expected_final_county_share_points": 55.08900970949258, "current_county_share_points": 56.22076707202993, "recent_batch_votes": 860, "recent_batch_share_points": 56.04651162790698, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 54.56231419595655, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 54.56231419595655, "required_final_county_share_points": 55.56772885557746, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 54.56231419595655, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1161.7307982102077, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 54.56231419595655, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 54.56231419595655, "required_final_county_share_points": 55.56772885557746, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 54.56231419595655, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 55.20559567050708, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 55.20559567050708, "required_final_county_share_points": 55.82102962334603, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.07865391656842785, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.999999999999999, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 55.84667686351869, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 55.84667686351869, "required_final_county_share_points": 56.07346400054507, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.10597932088248406, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -1.2157529600162675, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": 1.4841974319504274, "status": "BELOW", "recent_status": "ABOVE", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.0016967329991230188, "criticality_score": 0.00139562316928294, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1358.3456932621054, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 2488.0710831335596, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 3078.5985626899956, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Mallory McMorrow": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 3.846065447274072, "expected_final_county_share_points": 3.858479044166661, "current_county_share_points": 3.8665419395073277, "recent_batch_votes": 860, "recent_batch_share_points": 2.6744186046511627, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 31.12770222751637, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 31.12770222751637, "required_final_county_share_points": 14.60099194996329, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 31.12770222751637, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 26690.484933127955, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 31.12770222751637, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 31.12770222751637, "required_final_county_share_points": 14.60099194996329, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 31.12770222751637, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 31.679501030689057, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 31.679501030689057, "required_final_county_share_points": 14.81827018045343, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.159018308558073, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999906, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 32.22911009206892, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 32.22911009206892, "required_final_county_share_points": 15.034686170541377, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.213613509684069, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.999999999999993, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -27.281636780242298, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -28.453283622865207, "status": "WELL BELOW", "recent_status": "WELL BELOW", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.0016967329991230188, "criticality_score": 6.219322589734843e-05, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1308.8451974734392, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 2438.5705873448933, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 3029.0980669013293, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } } } }, { "cid": "fips:26007", "county": "Alpena", "fips": "26007", "reporting": 58.050000000000004, "current_votes": 2009, "current_candidate_votes": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 978, "Haley Stevens": 912, "Mallory McMorrow": 119 }, "current_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 48.680935788949725, "Haley Stevens": 45.39571926331508, "Mallory McMorrow": 5.923344947735192 }, "estimated_remaining_votes": 1885.4507611674164, "estimated_final_votes": 3894.450761167416, "turnout_disagreement_votes": 2.2737367544323206e-13, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 48.87476345856507, "Haley Stevens": 45.88735194564049, "Mallory McMorrow": 5.23788459579443 }, "remaining_sources": [ { "model": "v3", "remaining_votes": 1885.4507611674162, "weight": 0.1342208488636769 }, { "model": "histgeo", "remaining_votes": 1885.4507611674162, "weight": 0.05994207394479305 }, { "model": "latent", "remaining_votes": 1885.4507611674162, "weight": 0.07672787409296966 }, { "model": "batchbias", "remaining_votes": 1885.4507611674162, "weight": 0.045123489075924846 } ], "share_sources": [ { "model": "v0", "weight": 0.03630604611298715, "source": "statewide raw" }, { "model": "v1", "weight": 0.14599140026529184, "source": "county live" }, { "model": "v3", "weight": 0.15004242351696637, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "market", "weight": 0.0786646379365536, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "histgeo", "weight": 0.06573339512824654, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "latent", "weight": 0.08483492578364633, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "batchbias", "weight": 0.04883898267529022, "source": "county remaining" } ], "candidate_benchmarks": { "Abdul El-Sayed": { "opponent": "Haley Stevens", "expected_remaining_share_points": 48.87476345856507, "expected_final_county_share_points": 48.774775087383176, "current_county_share_points": 48.680935788949725, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 47.65885199838829, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 47.65885199838829, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.18610640758832, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 47.65885199838829, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": -1175.6497669931387, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": false }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 47.65885199838829, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 47.65885199838829, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.18610640758832, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 47.65885199838829, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.30551854728727, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.30551854728727, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.49918211751913, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.024044322225107804, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999973, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.95190659218088, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.95190659218088, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.81212299313797, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.003259695682198218, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.9999999999999996, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": 1.2159114601767769, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "ABOVE", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.001535805991480053, "criticality_score": 0.0012630903168366944, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -1392.8666436066842, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -144.76476122324732, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 507.6402085521047, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Haley Stevens": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 45.88735194564049, "expected_final_county_share_points": 45.633737220647625, "current_county_share_points": 45.39571926331508, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 47.103263405817266, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 47.103263405817266, "required_final_county_share_points": 46.22240590044248, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 47.103263405817266, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1270.4118823973442, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 47.103263405817266, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 47.103263405817266, "required_final_county_share_points": 46.22240590044248, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 47.103263405817266, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 47.750202221307795, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 47.750202221307795, "required_final_county_share_points": 46.53561342491756, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.07865391656842785, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.999999999999999, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.39740704390426, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.39740704390426, "required_final_county_share_points": 46.84894973348344, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.10597932088248406, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -1.2159114601767769, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.001535805991480053, "criticality_score": 0.0012630903168366944, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1487.6287590108896, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 2735.730641394326, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 3388.135611169678, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Mallory McMorrow": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 5.23788459579443, "expected_final_county_share_points": 5.591487691969201, "current_county_share_points": 5.923344947735192, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 38.15721357611214, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 38.15721357611214, "required_final_county_share_points": 21.528978673227606, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 38.15721357611214, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 29488.194100202436, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 38.15721357611214, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 38.15721357611214, "required_final_county_share_points": 21.528978673227606, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 38.15721357611214, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 38.75531521341979, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 38.75531521341979, "required_final_county_share_points": 21.818542274483445, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.159018308558073, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999906, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 39.348650337640095, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 39.348650337640095, "required_final_county_share_points": 22.105798226656066, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.213613509684069, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.999999999999993, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -32.919328980317715, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "WELL BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.001535805991480053, "criticality_score": 4.665362384507603e-05, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1446.9792916610436, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 2695.08117404448, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 3347.4861438198323, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } } } }, { "cid": "26007", "county": "26007", "fips": null, "reporting": 0.0, "current_votes": 0, "current_candidate_votes": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 0, "Haley Stevens": 0, "Mallory McMorrow": 0 }, "current_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": null, "Haley Stevens": null, "Mallory McMorrow": null }, "estimated_remaining_votes": 1885.4507611674164, "estimated_final_votes": 1885.4507611674164, "turnout_disagreement_votes": 2.2737367544323206e-13, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 48.74909884299047, "Haley Stevens": 46.39513307510219, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.85576808190735 }, "remaining_sources": [ { "model": "market", "remaining_votes": 1885.4507611674162, "weight": 0.1780093144963334 } ], "share_sources": [ { "model": "v0", "weight": 0.03630604611298715, "source": "statewide raw" }, { "model": "v3", "weight": 0.06301781787712588, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "market", "weight": 0.18729675699179427, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "histgeo", "weight": 0.02760802595386354, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "latent", "weight": 0.03563066882913146, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "batchbias", "weight": 0.020512372723621893, "source": "statewide fallback" } ], "candidate_benchmarks": { "Abdul El-Sayed": { "opponent": "Haley Stevens", "expected_remaining_share_points": 48.74909884299047, "expected_final_county_share_points": 48.74909884299047, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 47.52803068647186, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 47.52803068647186, "required_final_county_share_points": 47.52803068647186, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 47.52803068647186, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": -1175.7754316087141, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": false }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 47.52803068647186, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 47.52803068647186, "required_final_county_share_points": 47.52803068647186, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 47.52803068647186, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.17738677593538, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.17738677593538, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.177386775935375, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.024044322225107804, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999973, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.82658349959149, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.82658349959149, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.82658349959149, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.003259695682198218, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.9999999999999996, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": 1.2210681565186121, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "ABOVE", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.001535805991480053, "criticality_score": 0.001257756156592266, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -1392.9923082222588, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -144.89042583882193, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 507.51454393653006, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Haley Stevens": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 46.39513307510219, "expected_final_county_share_points": 46.39513307510219, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 47.6162012316208, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 47.6162012316208, "required_final_county_share_points": 47.6162012316208, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 47.6162012316208, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1270.9196635268067, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 47.6162012316208, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 47.6162012316208, "required_final_county_share_points": 47.6162012316208, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 47.6162012316208, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.26571030323427, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.26571030323427, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.26571030323427, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.07865391656842785, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.999999999999999, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.915365955839, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.915365955839, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.91536595583901, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.10597932088248406, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -1.2210681565186121, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.001535805991480053, "criticality_score": 0.001257756156592266, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1488.1365401403514, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 2736.2384225237874, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 3388.6433922991396, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Mallory McMorrow": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 4.85576808190735, "expected_final_county_share_points": 4.85576808190735, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 36.97153175493867, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 36.97153175493867, "required_final_county_share_points": 36.97153175493867, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 36.97153175493867, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 29487.81198368855, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 36.97153175493867, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 36.97153175493867, "required_final_county_share_points": 36.97153175493867, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 36.97153175493867, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 37.581893983030355, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 37.581893983030355, "required_final_county_share_points": 37.581893983030355, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.159018308558073, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999906, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 38.188383587640025, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 38.188383587640025, "required_final_county_share_points": 38.188383587640025, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.213613509684069, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.999999999999993, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -32.11576367303132, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "WELL BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.001535805991480053, "criticality_score": 4.782093949613039e-05, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1446.5971751471566, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 2694.6990575305927, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 3347.104027305945, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } } } }, { "cid": "26053", "county": "26053", "fips": null, "reporting": 0.0, "current_votes": 0, "current_candidate_votes": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 0, "Haley Stevens": 0, "Mallory McMorrow": 0 }, "current_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": null, "Haley Stevens": null, "Mallory McMorrow": null }, "estimated_remaining_votes": 1803.7504679250026, "estimated_final_votes": 1803.7504679250026, "turnout_disagreement_votes": 2.2737367544323206e-13, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 49.18170843815538, "Haley Stevens": 45.45365704777212, "Mallory McMorrow": 5.364634514072509 }, "remaining_sources": [ { "model": "market", "remaining_votes": 1803.7504679250023, "weight": 0.1780093144963334 } ], "share_sources": [ { "model": "v0", "weight": 0.03630604611298715, "source": "statewide raw" }, { "model": "v3", "weight": 0.06301781787712588, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "market", "weight": 0.18729675699179427, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "histgeo", "weight": 0.02760802595386354, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "latent", "weight": 0.03563066882913146, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "batchbias", "weight": 0.020512372723621893, "source": "statewide fallback" } ], "candidate_benchmarks": { "Abdul El-Sayed": { "opponent": "Haley Stevens", "expected_remaining_share_points": 49.18170843815538, "expected_final_county_share_points": 49.18170843815538, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 47.967856258444506, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 47.967856258444506, "required_final_county_share_points": 47.967856258444506, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 47.967856258444506, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": -1230.8072640189469, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": false }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 47.967856258444506, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 47.967856258444506, "required_final_county_share_points": 47.967856258444506, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 47.967856258444506, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.61348870054192, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.61348870054192, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.61348870054192, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.024044322225107804, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999973, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 49.258704367844174, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 49.258704367844174, "required_final_county_share_points": 49.258704367844174, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.003259695682198218, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.9999999999999996, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": 1.2138521797108766, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "ABOVE", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.0014692564944305063, "criticality_score": 0.0012104080867412239, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -1457.8629087060717, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -153.2286557977696, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 528.7267857813522, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Haley Stevens": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 45.45365704777212, "expected_final_county_share_points": 45.45365704777211, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 46.667509227482995, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 46.667509227482995, "required_final_county_share_points": 46.667509227482995, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 46.667509227482995, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1325.4426295048745, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 46.667509227482995, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 46.667509227482995, "required_final_county_share_points": 46.667509227482995, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 46.667509227482995, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 47.31355243907429, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 47.31355243907429, "required_final_county_share_points": 47.31355243907429, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.07865391656842785, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.999999999999999, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 47.96000038765792, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 47.96000038765792, "required_final_county_share_points": 47.96000038765792, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.10597932088248406, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -1.2138521797108766, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.0014692564944305063, "criticality_score": 0.0012104080867412239, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1552.4982741919991, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 2857.1325271003006, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 3539.087968679423, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Mallory McMorrow": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 5.364634514072509, "expected_final_county_share_points": 5.364634514072509, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 38.66247254553269, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 38.66247254553269, "required_final_county_share_points": 38.66247254553269, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 38.66247254553269, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 30823.741802908775, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 38.66247254553269, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 38.66247254553269, "required_final_county_share_points": 38.66247254553269, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 38.66247254553269, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 39.2608626515715, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 39.2608626515715, "required_final_county_share_points": 39.2608626515715, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.159018308558073, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999906, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 39.85425418481526, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 39.85425418481526, "required_final_county_share_points": 39.85425418481526, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.213613509684069, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.999999999999993, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -33.29783803146018, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "WELL BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.0014692564944305063, "criticality_score": 4.412468139950515e-05, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1512.4092516582996, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 2817.043504566601, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 3498.998946145723, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } } } }, { "cid": "fips:26053", "county": "Gogebic", "fips": "26053", "reporting": 12.08, "current_votes": 281, "current_candidate_votes": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 137, "Haley Stevens": 118, "Mallory McMorrow": 26 }, "current_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 48.754448398576514, "Haley Stevens": 41.99288256227758, "Mallory McMorrow": 9.252669039145907 }, "estimated_remaining_votes": 1803.7504679250026, "estimated_final_votes": 2084.7504679250023, "turnout_disagreement_votes": 2.2737367544323206e-13, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 48.98109738774873, "Haley Stevens": 44.79657419156991, "Mallory McMorrow": 6.222328420681346 }, "remaining_sources": [ { "model": "v3", "remaining_votes": 1803.7504679250023, "weight": 0.1342208488636769 }, { "model": "histgeo", "remaining_votes": 1803.7504679250023, "weight": 0.05994207394479305 }, { "model": "latent", "remaining_votes": 1803.7504679250023, "weight": 0.07672787409296966 }, { "model": "batchbias", "remaining_votes": 1803.7504679250023, "weight": 0.045123489075924846 } ], "share_sources": [ { "model": "v0", "weight": 0.03630604611298715, "source": "statewide raw" }, { "model": "v1", "weight": 0.14599140026529184, "source": "county live" }, { "model": "v3", "weight": 0.15004242351696637, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "market", "weight": 0.0786646379365536, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "histgeo", "weight": 0.06573339512824654, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "latent", "weight": 0.08483492578364633, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "batchbias", "weight": 0.04883898267529022, "source": "county remaining" } ], "candidate_benchmarks": { "Abdul El-Sayed": { "opponent": "Haley Stevens", "expected_remaining_share_points": 48.98109738774873, "expected_final_county_share_points": 48.9505477527026, "current_county_share_points": 48.754448398576514, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 47.77861414884298, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 47.77861414884298, "required_final_county_share_points": 47.910145201788644, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 47.77861414884298, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": -1231.0078750693542, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": false }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 47.77861414884298, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 47.77861414884298, "required_final_county_share_points": 47.910145201788644, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 47.77861414884298, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.41823981475325, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.41823981475325, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.46355680280908, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.024044322225107804, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999973, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 49.05736127840411, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 49.05736127840411, "required_final_county_share_points": 49.01653216214241, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.003259695682198218, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.9999999999999996, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": 1.2024832389057494, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "ABOVE", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.0014692564944305063, "criticality_score": 0.0012218519534355576, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -1458.0635197564782, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -153.42926684817627, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 528.5261747309455, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Haley Stevens": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 44.79657419156991, "expected_final_county_share_points": 44.41866932479931, "current_county_share_points": 41.99288256227758, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 45.99905743047566, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 45.99905743047566, "required_final_county_share_points": 45.45907187571326, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 45.99905743047566, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1324.785546648673, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 45.99905743047566, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 45.99905743047566, "required_final_county_share_points": 45.45907187571326, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 45.99905743047566, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 46.639181544542666, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 46.639181544542666, "required_final_county_share_points": 46.012914739903934, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.07865391656842785, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.999999999999999, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 47.279798322496156, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 47.279798322496156, "required_final_county_share_points": 46.56718386264664, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.10597932088248406, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -1.2024832389057494, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.0014692564944305063, "criticality_score": 0.0012218519534355576, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1551.841191335797, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 2856.4754442440985, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 3538.4308858232207, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Mallory McMorrow": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 6.222328420681346, "expected_final_county_share_points": 6.630782922498095, "current_county_share_points": 9.252669039145907, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 40.80800943377436, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 40.80800943377436, "required_final_county_share_points": 36.55471831461411, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 40.80800943377436, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 30824.599496815375, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 40.80800943377436, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 40.80800943377436, "required_final_county_share_points": 36.55471831461411, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 40.80800943377436, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 41.37269393957982, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 41.37269393957982, "required_final_county_share_points": 37.043289948124944, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.159018308558073, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999906, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 41.93086349656179, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 41.93086349656179, "required_final_county_share_points": 37.526224771777876, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.213613509684069, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.999999999999993, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -34.585681013093016, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "WELL BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.0014692564944305063, "criticality_score": 4.248164128600774e-05, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1513.2669455649084, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 2817.9011984732097, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 3499.856640052332, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } } } }, { "cid": "fips:26071", "county": "Iron", "fips": "26071", "reporting": 0.0, "current_votes": 0, "current_candidate_votes": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 0, "Haley Stevens": 0, "Mallory McMorrow": 0 }, "current_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": null, "Haley Stevens": null, "Mallory McMorrow": null }, "estimated_remaining_votes": 1664.049750378701, "estimated_final_votes": 1664.049750378701, "turnout_disagreement_votes": 0.0, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 49.0757394697093, "Haley Stevens": 47.03656679753884, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.8876937327518637 }, "remaining_sources": [ { "model": "v3", "remaining_votes": 1664.049750378701, "weight": 0.1342208488636769 }, { "model": "histgeo", "remaining_votes": 1664.049750378701, "weight": 0.05994207394479305 }, { "model": "latent", "remaining_votes": 1664.049750378701, "weight": 0.07672787409296966 }, { "model": "batchbias", "remaining_votes": 1664.049750378701, "weight": 0.045123489075924846 } ], "share_sources": [ { "model": "v0", "weight": 0.03630604611298715, "source": "statewide raw" }, { "model": "v3", "weight": 0.15004242351696637, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "market", "weight": 0.0786646379365536, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "histgeo", "weight": 0.06573339512824654, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "latent", "weight": 0.08483492578364633, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "batchbias", "weight": 0.04883898267529022, "source": "county remaining" } ], "candidate_benchmarks": { "Abdul El-Sayed": { "opponent": "Haley Stevens", "expected_remaining_share_points": 49.0757394697093, "expected_final_county_share_points": 49.0757394697093, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 47.84215892429268, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 47.84215892429268, "required_final_county_share_points": 47.84215892429268, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 47.84215892429268, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": -1338.3711848081925, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": false }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 47.84215892429268, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 47.84215892429268, "required_final_county_share_points": 47.84215892429268, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 47.84215892429268, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.49814121865617, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.49814121865617, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.49814121865617, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.024044322225107804, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999973, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 49.15402565364959, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 49.15402565364959, "required_final_county_share_points": 49.15402565364959, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.003259695682198218, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.9999999999999996, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": 1.2335805454166149, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "ABOVE", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.001355462380343524, "criticality_score": 0.0010988033050454327, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -1584.488661317661, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -170.32742988885806, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 568.8797041360738, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Haley Stevens": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 47.03656679753884, "expected_final_county_share_points": 47.03656679753884, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.270147342955454, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.270147342955454, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.270147342955454, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 48.270147342955454, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1434.4834910754407, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.270147342955454, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.270147342955454, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.270147342955454, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 48.270147342955454, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.92622101144557, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.92622101144557, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.92622101144557, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.07865391656842785, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.999999999999999, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 49.58237955362736, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 49.58237955362736, "required_final_county_share_points": 49.58237955362736, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.10597932088248406, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -1.2335805454166149, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.001355462380343524, "criticality_score": 0.0010988033050454327, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1680.600967584909, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 3094.762199013712, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 3833.969333038644, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Mallory McMorrow": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 3.8876937327518637, "expected_final_county_share_points": 3.8876937327518637, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 33.82754775397445, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 33.82754775397445, "required_final_county_share_points": 33.82754775397445, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 33.82754775397445, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 33409.53690916661, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 33.82754775397445, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 33.82754775397445, "required_final_county_share_points": 33.82754775397445, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 33.82754775397445, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 34.47957876983034, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 34.47957876983034, "required_final_county_share_points": 34.47957876983034, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.159018308558073, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999906, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 35.1309972829674, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 35.1309972829674, "required_final_county_share_points": 35.1309972829674, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.213613509684069, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.999999999999993, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -29.939854021222587, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "WELL BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.001355462380343524, "criticality_score": 4.527284533126705e-05, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1637.452094520122, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 3051.6133259489247, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 3790.820459973857, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } } } }, { "cid": "26071", "county": "26071", "fips": null, "reporting": 0.0, "current_votes": 0, "current_candidate_votes": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 0, "Haley Stevens": 0, "Mallory McMorrow": 0 }, "current_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": null, "Haley Stevens": null, "Mallory McMorrow": null }, "estimated_remaining_votes": 1664.0497503787008, "estimated_final_votes": 1664.0497503787008, "turnout_disagreement_votes": 2.2737367544323206e-13, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 48.973903537573875, "Haley Stevens": 46.149745434179586, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.8763510282465425 }, "remaining_sources": [ { "model": "market", "remaining_votes": 1664.049750378701, "weight": 0.1780093144963334 } ], "share_sources": [ { "model": "v0", "weight": 0.03630604611298715, "source": "statewide raw" }, { "model": "v3", "weight": 0.06301781787712588, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "market", "weight": 0.18729675699179427, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "histgeo", "weight": 0.02760802595386354, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "latent", "weight": 0.03563066882913146, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "batchbias", "weight": 0.020512372723621893, "source": "statewide fallback" } ], "candidate_benchmarks": { "Abdul El-Sayed": { "opponent": "Haley Stevens", "expected_remaining_share_points": 48.973903537573875, "expected_final_county_share_points": 48.973903537573875, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 47.75327342108671, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 47.75327342108671, "required_final_county_share_points": 47.75327342108671, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 47.75327342108671, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": -1338.4730207403295, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": false }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 47.75327342108671, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 47.75327342108671, "required_final_county_share_points": 47.75327342108671, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 47.75327342108671, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.402435191598066, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.402435191598066, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.402435191598066, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.024044322225107804, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999973, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 49.05134992915548, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 49.05134992915548, "required_final_county_share_points": 49.05134992915548, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.003259695682198218, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.9999999999999996, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": 1.2206301164871647, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "ABOVE", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.0013554623803435238, "criticality_score": 0.0011104611970777774, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -1584.5904972497965, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -170.42926582099352, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 568.7778682039383, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Haley Stevens": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 46.149745434179586, "expected_final_county_share_points": 46.149745434179586, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 47.37037555066674, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 47.37037555066674, "required_final_county_share_points": 47.37037555066674, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 47.37037555066674, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1433.5966697120828, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 47.37037555066674, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 47.37037555066674, "required_final_county_share_points": 47.37037555066674, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 47.37037555066674, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.01977805349677, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.01977805349677, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.01977805349677, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.07865391656842785, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.999999999999999, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.6694149671013, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.6694149671013, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.6694149671013, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.10597932088248406, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -1.2206301164871576, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.0013554623803435238, "criticality_score": 0.0011104611970777839, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1679.71414622155, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 3093.875377650353, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 3833.0825116752853, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Mallory McMorrow": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 4.8763510282465425, "expected_final_county_share_points": 4.876351028246543, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 37.136501345834354, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 37.136501345834354, "required_final_county_share_points": 37.13650134583436, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 37.136501345834354, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 33410.52556646211, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 37.136501345834354, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 37.136501345834354, "required_final_county_share_points": 37.13650134583436, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 37.136501345834354, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 37.749746513256014, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 37.749746513256014, "required_final_county_share_points": 37.749746513256014, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.159018308558073, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999906, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 38.359105897231565, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 38.359105897231565, "required_final_county_share_points": 38.359105897231565, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.213613509684069, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.999999999999993, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -32.260150317587815, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "WELL BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.0013554623803435238, "criticality_score": 4.201661700269708e-05, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1638.440751815617, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 3052.60198324442, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 3791.809117269352, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } } } }, { "cid": "26151", "county": "26151", "fips": null, "reporting": 0.0, "current_votes": 0, "current_candidate_votes": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 0, "Haley Stevens": 0, "Mallory McMorrow": 0 }, "current_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": null, "Haley Stevens": null, "Mallory McMorrow": null }, "estimated_remaining_votes": 1585.2325585258732, "estimated_final_votes": 1585.2325585258732, "turnout_disagreement_votes": 0.0, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 44.77543062705778, "Haley Stevens": 51.51673444802286, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.707834924919356 }, "remaining_sources": [ { "model": "market", "remaining_votes": 1585.2325585258732, "weight": 0.1780093144963334 } ], "share_sources": [ { "model": "v0", "weight": 0.03630604611298715, "source": "statewide raw" }, { "model": "v3", "weight": 0.06301781787712588, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "market", "weight": 0.18729675699179427, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "histgeo", "weight": 0.02760802595386354, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "latent", "weight": 0.03563066882913146, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "batchbias", "weight": 0.020512372723621893, "source": "statewide fallback" } ], "candidate_benchmarks": { "Abdul El-Sayed": { "opponent": "Haley Stevens", "expected_remaining_share_points": 44.77543062705778, "expected_final_county_share_points": 44.77543062705779, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 43.54792094614167, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 43.54792094614167, "required_final_county_share_points": 43.54792094614167, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 43.54792094614167, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": -1411.6548550058005, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": false }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 43.54792094614167, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 43.54792094614167, "required_final_county_share_points": 43.54792094614167, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 43.54792094614167, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 44.19995967493985, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 44.19995967493985, "required_final_county_share_points": 44.19995967493985, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.024044322225107804, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999973, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 44.853525653420476, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 44.853525653420476, "required_final_county_share_points": 44.853525653420476, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.003259695682198218, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.9999999999999996, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": 1.227509680916107, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "ABOVE", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.0012912613319935493, "criticality_score": 0.0010519357623557507, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -1670.0092038025844, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -185.53638528904273, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 590.4238611975715, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Haley Stevens": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 51.51673444802286, "expected_final_county_share_points": 51.51673444802286, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 52.74424412893895, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 52.74424412893895, "required_final_county_share_points": 52.74424412893895, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 52.74424412893895, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1507.9470200808814, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 52.74424412893895, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 52.74424412893895, "required_final_county_share_points": 52.74424412893895, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 52.74424412893895, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 53.39475451115378, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 53.39475451115378, "required_final_county_share_points": 53.39475451115378, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.07865391656842785, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.999999999999999, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 54.04373547383289, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 54.04373547383289, "required_final_county_share_points": 54.04373547383289, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.10597932088248406, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -1.2275096809160928, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.0012912613319935493, "criticality_score": 0.0010519357623557629, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1766.301368877665, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 3250.7741873912064, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 4026.734433877821, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Mallory McMorrow": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 3.707834924919356, "expected_final_county_share_points": 3.7078349249193563, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 31.45902167325829, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 31.45902167325829, "required_final_county_share_points": 31.45902167325829, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 31.45902167325829, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 35070.273897555955, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 31.45902167325829, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 31.45902167325829, "required_final_county_share_points": 31.45902167325829, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 31.45902167325829, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 32.04801582799303, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 32.04801582799303, "required_final_county_share_points": 32.04801582799303, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.159018308558073, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999906, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 32.635819333711815, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 32.635819333711815, "required_final_county_share_points": 32.635819333711815, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.213613509684069, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.999999999999993, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -27.751186748338935, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "WELL BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.0012912613319935493, "criticality_score": 4.652995000550161e-05, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1718.4924693545615, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 3202.965287868103, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 3978.925534354718, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } } } }, { "cid": "fips:26151", "county": "Sanilac", "fips": "26151", "reporting": 47.64, "current_votes": 1531, "current_candidate_votes": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 561, "Haley Stevens": 911, "Mallory McMorrow": 59 }, "current_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 36.642717178314825, "Haley Stevens": 59.50359242325277, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.8536903984323976 }, "estimated_remaining_votes": 1585.2325585258732, "estimated_final_votes": 3116.232558525873, "turnout_disagreement_votes": 0.0, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 41.270741922655226, "Haley Stevens": 54.89360470263943, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.835653374705344 }, "remaining_sources": [ { "model": "v3", "remaining_votes": 1585.2325585258732, "weight": 0.1342208488636769 }, { "model": "histgeo", "remaining_votes": 1585.2325585258732, "weight": 0.05994207394479305 }, { "model": "latent", "remaining_votes": 1585.2325585258732, "weight": 0.07672787409296966 }, { "model": "batchbias", "remaining_votes": 1585.2325585258732, "weight": 0.045123489075924846 } ], "share_sources": [ { "model": "v0", "weight": 0.03630604611298715, "source": "statewide raw" }, { "model": "v1", "weight": 0.14599140026529184, "source": "county live" }, { "model": "v3", "weight": 0.15004242351696637, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "market", "weight": 0.0786646379365536, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "histgeo", "weight": 0.06573339512824654, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "latent", "weight": 0.08483492578364633, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "batchbias", "weight": 0.04883898267529022, "source": "county remaining" } ], "candidate_benchmarks": { "Abdul El-Sayed": { "opponent": "Haley Stevens", "expected_remaining_share_points": 41.270741922655226, "expected_final_county_share_points": 38.99700087460683, "current_county_share_points": 36.642717178314825, "recent_batch_votes": 129, "recent_batch_share_points": 36.434108527131784, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 40.0657582636228, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 40.0657582636228, "required_final_county_share_points": 38.38402373220337, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 40.0657582636228, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": -1415.1595437102008, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": false }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 40.0657582636228, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 40.0657582636228, "required_final_county_share_points": 38.38402373220337, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 40.0657582636228, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 40.70528102021175, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 40.70528102021175, "required_final_county_share_points": 38.70934999608868, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.024044322225107804, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999973, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 41.347553538131535, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 41.347553538131535, "required_final_county_share_points": 39.03607506802441, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.003259695682198218, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.9999999999999996, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": 1.204983659032429, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -3.6316497364910134, "status": "ABOVE", "recent_status": "WELL BELOW", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.0012912613319935493, "criticality_score": 0.001071600699573303, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -1673.513892506987, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -189.04107399344528, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 586.919172493169, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Haley Stevens": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 54.89360470263943, "expected_final_county_share_points": 57.15848419019532, "current_county_share_points": 59.50359242325277, "recent_batch_votes": 129, "recent_batch_share_points": 61.240310077519375, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 56.09858836167185, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 56.09858836167185, "required_final_county_share_points": 57.77146133259878, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 56.09858836167185, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1511.3238903354957, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 56.09858836167185, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 56.09858836167185, "required_final_county_share_points": 57.77146133259878, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 56.09858836167185, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 56.73537267617203, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 56.73537267617203, "required_final_county_share_points": 58.09539454655048, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.07865391656842785, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.999999999999999, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 57.36942981402198, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 57.36942981402198, "required_final_county_share_points": 58.417940441315466, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.10597932088248406, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -1.2049836590324219, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": 5.141721715847524, "status": "BELOW", "recent_status": "WELL ABOVE", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.0012912613319935493, "criticality_score": 0.0010716006995733092, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1769.6782391322815, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 3254.151057645823, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 4030.111304132438, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Mallory McMorrow": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 3.835653374705344, "expected_final_county_share_points": 3.844514935197858, "current_county_share_points": 3.8536903984323976, "recent_batch_votes": 129, "recent_batch_share_points": 2.3255813953488373, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 30.432537007567394, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 30.432537007567394, "required_final_county_share_points": 17.374392791965256, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 30.432537007567394, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 35070.40171600574, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 30.432537007567394, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 30.432537007567394, "required_final_county_share_points": 17.374392791965256, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 30.432537007567394, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 30.959689995399014, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 30.959689995399014, "required_final_county_share_points": 17.642556372166787, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.159018308558073, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999906, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 31.484334232986456, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 31.484334232986456, "required_final_county_share_points": 17.909443747048726, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.213613509684069, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.999999999999993, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -26.59688363286205, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -28.106955612218556, "status": "WELL BELOW", "recent_status": "WELL BELOW", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.0012912613319935493, "criticality_score": 4.8549346976805895e-05, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1718.6202878043475, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 3203.093106317889, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 3979.053352804504, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } } } }, { "cid": "fips:26165", "county": "Wexford", "fips": "26165", "reporting": 44.65, "current_votes": 1194, "current_candidate_votes": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 525, "Haley Stevens": 618, "Mallory McMorrow": 51 }, "current_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 43.969849246231156, "Haley Stevens": 51.75879396984925, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.271356783919598 }, "estimated_remaining_votes": 1555.6611022108018, "estimated_final_votes": 2749.661102210802, "turnout_disagreement_votes": 0.0, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 46.01856870228579, "Haley Stevens": 49.883040283064226, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.09839101464997 }, "remaining_sources": [ { "model": "v3", "remaining_votes": 1555.6611022108018, "weight": 0.1342208488636769 }, { "model": "histgeo", "remaining_votes": 1555.6611022108018, "weight": 0.05994207394479305 }, { "model": "latent", "remaining_votes": 1555.6611022108018, "weight": 0.07672787409296966 }, { "model": "batchbias", "remaining_votes": 1555.6611022108018, "weight": 0.045123489075924846 } ], "share_sources": [ { "model": "v0", "weight": 0.03630604611298715, "source": "statewide raw" }, { "model": "v1", "weight": 0.14599140026529184, "source": "county live" }, { "model": "v3", "weight": 0.15004242351696637, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "market", "weight": 0.0786646379365536, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "histgeo", "weight": 0.06573339512824654, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "latent", "weight": 0.08483492578364633, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "batchbias", "weight": 0.04883898267529022, "source": "county remaining" } ], "candidate_benchmarks": { "Abdul El-Sayed": { "opponent": "Haley Stevens", "expected_remaining_share_points": 46.01856870228579, "expected_final_county_share_points": 45.128942330307645, "current_county_share_points": 43.969849246231156, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 44.79107675980081, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 44.79107675980081, "required_final_county_share_points": 44.434470758278, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 44.79107675980081, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": -1438.0969013877336, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": false }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 44.79107675980081, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 44.79107675980081, "required_final_county_share_points": 44.434470758278, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 44.79107675980081, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 45.44333885363721, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 45.44333885363721, "required_final_county_share_points": 44.8034976056273, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.024044322225107804, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999973, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 46.09659937031037, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 46.09659937031037, "required_final_county_share_points": 45.173089325341955, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.003259695682198218, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.9999999999999996, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": 1.2274919424849813, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "ABOVE", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.0012671737128836463, "criticality_score": 0.0010323275200636607, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -1701.3622904672616, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -188.67122889216927, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 602.0391932584128, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Haley Stevens": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 49.883040283064226, "expected_final_county_share_points": 50.69755880689997, "current_county_share_points": 51.75879396984925, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 51.1105322255492, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 51.1105322255492, "required_final_county_share_points": 51.3920303789296, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 51.1105322255492, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1533.9985103730835, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 51.1105322255492, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 51.1105322255492, "required_final_county_share_points": 51.3920303789296, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 51.1105322255492, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 51.761791729754094, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 51.761791729754094, "required_final_county_share_points": 51.76048999648831, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.07865391656842785, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.999999999999999, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 52.412044498729884, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 52.412044498729884, "required_final_county_share_points": 52.12838003882377, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.10597932088248406, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -1.2274919424849742, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.0012671737128836463, "criticality_score": 0.0010323275200636666, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1797.2638994526117, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 3309.9549610277036, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 4100.665383178286, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Mallory McMorrow": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 4.09839101464997, "expected_final_county_share_points": 4.1734988627923775, "current_county_share_points": 4.271356783919598, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 33.340635036845015, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 33.340635036845015, "required_final_county_share_points": 20.71772736066405, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 33.340635036845015, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 35737.242428094614, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 33.340635036845015, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 33.340635036845015, "required_final_county_share_points": 20.71772736066405, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 33.340635036845015, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 33.935195924503795, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 33.935195924503795, "required_final_county_share_points": 21.05410890422337, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.159018308558073, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999906, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 34.527520483618154, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 34.527520483618154, "required_final_county_share_points": 21.389225212104908, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.213613509684069, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.999999999999993, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -29.242244022195045, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "WELL BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.0012671737128836463, "criticality_score": 4.3333668644644833e-05, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1751.4792501841973, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 3264.1703117592897, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 4054.880733909872, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } } } }, { "cid": "26165", "county": "26165", "fips": null, "reporting": 0.0, "current_votes": 0, "current_candidate_votes": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 0, "Haley Stevens": 0, "Mallory McMorrow": 0 }, "current_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": null, "Haley Stevens": null, "Mallory McMorrow": null }, "estimated_remaining_votes": 1555.6611022108016, "estimated_final_votes": 1555.6611022108016, "turnout_disagreement_votes": 2.2737367544323206e-13, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 47.135154262806495, "Haley Stevens": 48.80574469593407, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.0591010412594315 }, "remaining_sources": [ { "model": "market", "remaining_votes": 1555.6611022108018, "weight": 0.1780093144963334 } ], "share_sources": [ { "model": "v0", "weight": 0.03630604611298715, "source": "statewide raw" }, { "model": "v3", "weight": 0.06301781787712588, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "market", "weight": 0.18729675699179427, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "histgeo", "weight": 0.02760802595386354, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "latent", "weight": 0.03563066882913146, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "batchbias", "weight": 0.020512372723621893, "source": "statewide fallback" } ], "candidate_benchmarks": { "Abdul El-Sayed": { "opponent": "Haley Stevens", "expected_remaining_share_points": 47.135154262806495, "expected_final_county_share_points": 47.135154262806495, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 45.90481322327478, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 45.90481322327478, "required_final_county_share_points": 45.90481322327478, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 45.90481322327478, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": -1436.9803158272105, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": false }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 45.90481322327478, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 45.90481322327478, "required_final_county_share_points": 45.90481322327478, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 45.90481322327478, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 46.55876907784067, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 46.55876907784067, "required_final_county_share_points": 46.558769077840665, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.024044322225107804, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999973, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 47.21331723965985, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 47.21331723965985, "required_final_county_share_points": 47.213317239659844, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.003259695682198218, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.9999999999999996, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": 1.2303410395317158, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "ABOVE", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.0012671737128836463, "criticality_score": 0.001029936962328713, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -1700.245704906741, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -187.55464333164855, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 603.1557788189334, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Haley Stevens": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 48.80574469593407, "expected_final_county_share_points": 48.805744695934074, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 50.0360857354658, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 50.0360857354658, "required_final_county_share_points": 50.0360857354658, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 50.0360857354658, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1532.921214785951, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 50.0360857354658, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 50.0360857354658, "required_final_county_share_points": 50.0360857354658, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 50.0360857354658, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 50.68944360959574, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 50.68944360959574, "required_final_county_share_points": 50.68944360959574, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.07865391656842785, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.999999999999999, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 51.34219784082158, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 51.34219784082158, "required_final_county_share_points": 51.34219784082158, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.10597932088248406, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -1.23034103953173, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.0012671737128836463, "criticality_score": 0.001029936962328701, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1796.1866038654814, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 3308.8776654405738, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 4099.588087591156, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Mallory McMorrow": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 4.0591010412594315, "expected_final_county_share_points": 4.0591010412594315, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 33.672073812820926, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 33.672073812820926, "required_final_county_share_points": 33.672073812820926, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 33.672073812820926, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 35737.20313812122, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 33.672073812820926, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 33.672073812820926, "required_final_county_share_points": 33.672073812820926, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 33.672073812820926, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 34.286290073197485, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 34.286290073197485, "required_final_county_share_points": 34.28629007319749, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.159018308558073, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999906, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 34.89868615217256, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 34.89868615217256, "required_final_county_share_points": 34.89868615217256, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.213613509684069, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.999999999999993, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -29.612972771561495, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "WELL BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.0012671737128836463, "criticality_score": 4.27911686766066e-05, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1751.439960210807, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 3264.131021785899, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 4054.8414439364815, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } } } }, { "cid": "fips:26011", "county": "Arenac", "fips": "26011", "reporting": 0.0, "current_votes": 0, "current_candidate_votes": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 0, "Haley Stevens": 0, "Mallory McMorrow": 0 }, "current_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": null, "Haley Stevens": null, "Mallory McMorrow": null }, "estimated_remaining_votes": 1502.2465186291217, "estimated_final_votes": 1502.2465186291217, "turnout_disagreement_votes": 0.0, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 49.07978973079111, "Haley Stevens": 47.04349713378837, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.8767131354205167 }, "remaining_sources": [ { "model": "v3", "remaining_votes": 1502.2465186291217, "weight": 0.1342208488636769 }, { "model": "histgeo", "remaining_votes": 1502.2465186291217, "weight": 0.05994207394479305 }, { "model": "latent", "remaining_votes": 1502.2465186291217, "weight": 0.07672787409296966 }, { "model": "batchbias", "remaining_votes": 1502.2465186291217, "weight": 0.045123489075924846 } ], "share_sources": [ { "model": "v0", "weight": 0.03630604611298715, "source": "statewide raw" }, { "model": "v3", "weight": 0.15004242351696637, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "market", "weight": 0.0786646379365536, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "histgeo", "weight": 0.06573339512824654, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "latent", "weight": 0.08483492578364633, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "batchbias", "weight": 0.04883898267529022, "source": "county remaining" } ], "candidate_benchmarks": { "Abdul El-Sayed": { "opponent": "Haley Stevens", "expected_remaining_share_points": 49.07978973079111, "expected_final_county_share_points": 49.07978973079111, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 47.84606758299723, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 47.84606758299723, "required_final_county_share_points": 47.84606758299723, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 47.84606758299723, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": -1487.8055878537245, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": false }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 47.84606758299723, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 47.84606758299723, "required_final_county_share_points": 47.84606758299723, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 47.84606758299723, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.50212492190258, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.50212492190258, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.50212492190258, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.024044322225107804, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999973, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 49.15808497043262, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 49.15808497043262, "required_final_county_share_points": 49.15808497043262, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.003259695682198218, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.9999999999999996, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": 1.233722147793884, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "ABOVE", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.001223664521773101, "criticality_score": 0.0009918477381323115, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -1760.4317648963256, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -193.9547486594797, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 624.8705450578608, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Haley Stevens": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 47.04349713378837, "expected_final_county_share_points": 47.04349713378837, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.27721928158224, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.27721928158224, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.27721928158224, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 48.27721928158224, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1583.928874718304, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.27721928158224, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.27721928158224, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.27721928158224, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 48.27721928158224, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.933367424627214, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.933367424627214, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.933367424627214, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.07865391656842785, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.999999999999999, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 49.589599870405785, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 49.589599870405785, "required_final_county_share_points": 49.589599870405785, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.10597932088248406, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -1.2337221477938698, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.001223664521773101, "criticality_score": 0.0009918477381323228, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1856.5550517609051, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 3423.0320679977503, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 4241.857361715091, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Mallory McMorrow": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 3.8767131354205167, "expected_final_county_share_points": 3.8767131354205167, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 33.78753370847888, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 33.78753370847888, "required_final_county_share_points": 33.78753370847888, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 33.78753370847888, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 37007.565221535966, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 33.78753370847888, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 33.78753370847888, "required_final_county_share_points": 33.78753370847888, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 33.78753370847888, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 34.44002816914223, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 34.44002816914223, "required_final_county_share_points": 34.44002816914223, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.159018308558073, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999906, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 35.09195641479674, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 35.09195641479674, "required_final_county_share_points": 35.09195641479674, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.213613509684069, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.999999999999993, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -29.910820573058366, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "WELL BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.001223664521773101, "criticality_score": 4.091042968160141e-05, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1813.3882677625372, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 3379.865283999383, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 4198.690577716724, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } } } }, { "cid": "26011", "county": "26011", "fips": null, "reporting": 0.0, "current_votes": 0, "current_candidate_votes": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 0, "Haley Stevens": 0, "Mallory McMorrow": 0 }, "current_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": null, "Haley Stevens": null, "Mallory McMorrow": null }, "estimated_remaining_votes": 1502.2465186291215, "estimated_final_votes": 1502.2465186291215, "turnout_disagreement_votes": 2.2737367544323206e-13, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 47.866155366725685, "Haley Stevens": 48.07259662711275, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.061248006161554 }, "remaining_sources": [ { "model": "market", "remaining_votes": 1502.2465186291217, "weight": 0.1780093144963334 } ], "share_sources": [ { "model": "v0", "weight": 0.03630604611298715, "source": "statewide raw" }, { "model": "v3", "weight": 0.06301781787712588, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "market", "weight": 0.18729675699179427, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "histgeo", "weight": 0.02760802595386354, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "latent", "weight": 0.03563066882913146, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "batchbias", "weight": 0.020512372723621893, "source": "statewide fallback" } ], "candidate_benchmarks": { "Abdul El-Sayed": { "opponent": "Haley Stevens", "expected_remaining_share_points": 47.866155366725685, "expected_final_county_share_points": 47.866155366725685, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 46.63499237555791, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 46.63499237555791, "required_final_county_share_points": 46.6349923755579, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 46.63499237555791, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": -1489.0192222177886, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": false }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 46.63499237555791, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 46.63499237555791, "required_final_county_share_points": 46.6349923755579, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 46.63499237555791, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 47.28950516908663, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 47.28950516908663, "required_final_county_share_points": 47.28950516908663, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.024044322225107804, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999973, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 47.94433799359388, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 47.94433799359388, "required_final_county_share_points": 47.94433799359388, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.003259695682198218, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.9999999999999996, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": 1.2311629911677784, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "ABOVE", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.0012236645217731008, "criticality_score": 0.0009939094421709629, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -1761.6453992603913, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -195.16838302354515, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 623.6569106937955, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Haley Stevens": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 48.07259662711275, "expected_final_county_share_points": 48.07259662711275, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 49.30375961828052, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 49.30375961828052, "required_final_county_share_points": 49.30375961828052, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 49.30375961828052, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1584.957974211627, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 49.30375961828052, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 49.30375961828052, "required_final_county_share_points": 49.30375961828052, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 49.30375961828052, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 49.95794612902271, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 49.95794612902271, "required_final_county_share_points": 49.95794612902271, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.07865391656842785, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.999999999999999, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 50.61180010634276, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 50.61180010634276, "required_final_county_share_points": 50.61180010634276, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.10597932088248406, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -1.2311629911677713, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.0012236645217731008, "criticality_score": 0.0009939094421709687, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1857.5841512542297, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 3424.061167491076, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 4242.886461208417, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Mallory McMorrow": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 4.061248006161554, "expected_final_county_share_points": 4.061248006161554, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 33.98016158619869, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 33.98016158619869, "required_final_county_share_points": 33.98016158619869, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 33.98016158619869, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 37007.749756406716, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 33.98016158619869, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 33.98016158619869, "required_final_county_share_points": 33.98016158619869, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 33.98016158619869, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 34.60618224899911, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 34.60618224899911, "required_final_county_share_points": 34.60618224899911, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.159018308558073, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999906, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 35.23057058958013, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 35.23057058958013, "required_final_county_share_points": 35.23057058958013, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.213613509684069, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.999999999999993, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -29.918913580037135, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "WELL BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.0012236645217731008, "criticality_score": 4.089936349124553e-05, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1813.5728026332786, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 3380.0498188701245, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 4198.875112587466, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } } } }, { "cid": "26045", "county": "26045", "fips": null, "reporting": 0.0, "current_votes": 0, "current_candidate_votes": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 0, "Haley Stevens": 0, "Mallory McMorrow": 0 }, "current_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": null, "Haley Stevens": null, "Mallory McMorrow": null }, "estimated_remaining_votes": 1488.4619678716554, "estimated_final_votes": 1488.4619678716554, "turnout_disagreement_votes": 0.0, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 48.76556279685301, "Haley Stevens": 46.474200664652585, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.760236538494406 }, "remaining_sources": [ { "model": "market", "remaining_votes": 1488.4619678716554, "weight": 0.1780093144963334 } ], "share_sources": [ { "model": "v0", "weight": 0.03630604611298715, "source": "statewide raw" }, { "model": "v3", "weight": 0.06301781787712588, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "market", "weight": 0.18729675699179427, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "histgeo", "weight": 0.02760802595386354, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "latent", "weight": 0.03563066882913146, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "batchbias", "weight": 0.020512372723621893, "source": "statewide fallback" } ], "candidate_benchmarks": { "Abdul El-Sayed": { "opponent": "Haley Stevens", "expected_remaining_share_points": 48.76556279685301, "expected_final_county_share_points": 48.76556279685301, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 47.543249302852686, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 47.543249302852686, "required_final_county_share_points": 47.54324930285268, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 47.543249302852686, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": -1502.3528116347456, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": false }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 47.543249302852686, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 47.543249302852686, "required_final_county_share_points": 47.54324930285268, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 47.543249302852686, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.19326232269358, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.19326232269358, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.19326232269358, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.024044322225107804, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999973, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.843127923288584, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.843127923288584, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.843127923288584, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.003259695682198218, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.9999999999999996, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": 1.2223134940003249, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "ABOVE", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.0012124362276806743, "criticality_score": 0.0009919192037328127, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -1777.5037622062482, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -196.51970285590093, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 629.8886793557215, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Haley Stevens": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 46.474200664652585, "expected_final_county_share_points": 46.47420066465259, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 47.69651415865292, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 47.69651415865292, "required_final_county_share_points": 47.69651415865291, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 47.69651415865292, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1597.5925750962513, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 47.69651415865292, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 47.69651415865292, "required_final_county_share_points": 47.69651415865291, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 47.69651415865292, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.34666819922362, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.34666819922362, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.34666819922362, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.07865391656842785, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.999999999999999, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.996956844964686, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.996956844964686, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.996956844964686, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.10597932088248406, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -1.222313494000332, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.0012124362276806743, "criticality_score": 0.0009919192037328068, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1872.7435256677536, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 3453.7275850181004, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 4280.135967229724, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Mallory McMorrow": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 4.760236538494406, "expected_final_county_share_points": 4.760236538494406, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 36.68463407623901, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 36.68463407623901, "required_final_county_share_points": 36.68463407623901, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 36.68463407623901, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 37351.13752938067, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 36.68463407623901, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 36.68463407623901, "required_final_county_share_points": 36.68463407623901, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 36.68463407623901, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 37.29887475682021, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 37.29887475682021, "required_final_county_share_points": 37.29887475682021, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.159018308558073, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999906, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 37.909499380383444, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 37.909499380383444, "required_final_county_share_points": 37.90949938038344, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.213613509684069, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.999999999999993, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -31.9243975377446, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "WELL BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.0012124362276806743, "criticality_score": 3.7978358910209544e-05, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1831.0295615415955, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 3412.0136208919425, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 4238.422003103566, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } } } }, { "cid": "fips:26045", "county": "Eaton", "fips": "26045", "reporting": 92.34, "current_votes": 15102, "current_candidate_votes": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 7203, "Haley Stevens": 7006, "Mallory McMorrow": 893 }, "current_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 47.695669447755265, "Haley Stevens": 46.39120646272017, "Mallory McMorrow": 5.913124089524566 }, "estimated_remaining_votes": 1484.270588417996, "estimated_final_votes": 16586.270588417996, "turnout_disagreement_votes": 0.0, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 48.06409868224863, "Haley Stevens": 46.58482593648643, "Mallory McMorrow": 5.351075381264948 }, "remaining_sources": [ { "model": "v3", "remaining_votes": 1484.270588417996, "weight": 0.1342208488636769 }, { "model": "histgeo", "remaining_votes": 1484.270588417996, "weight": 0.05994207394479305 }, { "model": "latent", "remaining_votes": 1484.270588417996, "weight": 0.07672787409296966 }, { "model": "batchbias", "remaining_votes": 1484.270588417996, "weight": 0.045123489075924846 } ], "share_sources": [ { "model": "v0", "weight": 0.03630604611298715, "source": "statewide raw" }, { "model": "v1", "weight": 0.14599140026529184, "source": "county live" }, { "model": "v3", "weight": 0.15004242351696637, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "market", "weight": 0.0786646379365536, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "histgeo", "weight": 0.06573339512824654, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "latent", "weight": 0.08483492578364633, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "batchbias", "weight": 0.04883898267529022, "source": "county remaining" } ], "candidate_benchmarks": { "Abdul El-Sayed": { "opponent": "Haley Stevens", "expected_remaining_share_points": 48.06409868224863, "expected_final_county_share_points": 47.72863940768427, "current_county_share_points": 47.695669447755265, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 46.84922443905993, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 46.84922443905993, "required_final_county_share_points": 47.61992285816345, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 46.84922443905993, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": -1507.4344243122302, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": false }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 46.84922443905993, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 46.84922443905993, "required_final_county_share_points": 47.61992285816345, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 46.84922443905993, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 47.495215862592346, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 47.495215862592346, "required_final_county_share_points": 47.67773127659049, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.024044322225107804, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999973, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.141209481717006, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.141209481717006, "required_final_county_share_points": 47.73553989149648, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.003259695682198218, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.9999999999999996, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": 1.2148742431886959, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "ABOVE", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.0012090221127061145, "criticality_score": 0.000995182933118064, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -1783.3623639650239, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -197.91381939571988, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 630.8282283486985, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Haley Stevens": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 46.58482593648643, "expected_final_county_share_points": 46.40853306358106, "current_county_share_points": 46.39120646272017, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 47.79970017967511, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 47.79970017967511, "required_final_county_share_points": 46.51724961310188, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 47.79970017967511, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1602.0833489309653, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 47.79970017967511, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 47.79970017967511, "required_final_county_share_points": 46.51724961310188, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 47.79970017967511, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.445683001053254, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.445683001053254, "required_final_county_share_points": 46.57505726174017, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.07865391656842785, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.999999999999999, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 49.091650802664844, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 49.091650802664844, "required_final_county_share_points": 46.632863566291036, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.10597932088248406, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -1.2148742431886816, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.0012090221127061145, "criticality_score": 0.0009951829331180757, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1878.0112885837589, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 3463.459833153063, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 4292.201880897482, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Mallory McMorrow": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 5.351075381264948, "expected_final_county_share_points": 5.862827528734668, "current_county_share_points": 5.913124089524566, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 38.0852555421124, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 38.0852555421124, "required_final_county_share_points": 8.792140697099898, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 38.0852555421124, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 37457.189488099604, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 38.0852555421124, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 38.0852555421124, "required_final_county_share_points": 8.792140697099898, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 38.0852555421124, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 38.66607228508408, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 38.66607228508408, "required_final_county_share_points": 8.844116769976436, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.159018308558073, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999906, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 39.24178105195122, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 39.24178105195122, "required_final_county_share_points": 8.895635740778225, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.213613509684069, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.999999999999993, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -32.73418016084745, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "WELL BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.0012090221127061145, "criticality_score": 3.693454690984429e-05, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1836.7775380285375, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 3422.226082597841, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 4250.96813034226, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } } } }, { "cid": "26141", "county": "26141", "fips": null, "reporting": 0.0, "current_votes": 0, "current_candidate_votes": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 0, "Haley Stevens": 0, "Mallory McMorrow": 0 }, "current_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": null, "Haley Stevens": null, "Mallory McMorrow": null }, "estimated_remaining_votes": 1451.5801453614304, "estimated_final_votes": 1451.5801453614304, "turnout_disagreement_votes": 0.0, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 44.49545659611195, "Haley Stevens": 51.19162968761485, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.312913716273204 }, "remaining_sources": [ { "model": "market", "remaining_votes": 1451.5801453614304, "weight": 0.1780093144963334 } ], "share_sources": [ { "model": "v0", "weight": 0.03630604611298715, "source": "statewide raw" }, { "model": "v3", "weight": 0.06301781787712588, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "market", "weight": 0.18729675699179427, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "histgeo", "weight": 0.02760802595386354, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "latent", "weight": 0.03563066882913146, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "batchbias", "weight": 0.020512372723621893, "source": "statewide fallback" } ], "candidate_benchmarks": { "Abdul El-Sayed": { "opponent": "Haley Stevens", "expected_remaining_share_points": 44.49545659611195, "expected_final_county_share_points": 44.49545659611195, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 43.27565444415839, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 43.27565444415839, "required_final_county_share_points": 43.27565444415839, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 43.27565444415839, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": -1546.033812756408, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": false }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 43.27565444415839, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 43.27565444415839, "required_final_county_share_points": 43.27565444415839, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 43.27565444415839, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 43.92359924936351, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 43.92359924936351, "required_final_county_share_points": 43.92359924936351, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.024044322225107804, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999973, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 44.57306120286155, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 44.57306120286155, "required_final_county_share_points": 44.57306120286155, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.003259695682198218, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.9999999999999996, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": 1.2198021519535587, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "ABOVE", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.00118239390297269, "criticality_score": 0.0009693325274750844, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -1828.1758127404603, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -207.02202962061628, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 640.3837789963544, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Haley Stevens": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 51.19162968761485, "expected_final_county_share_points": 51.19162968761485, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 52.4114318395684, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 52.4114318395684, "required_final_county_share_points": 52.4114318395684, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 52.4114318395684, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1641.720899040135, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 52.4114318395684, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 52.4114318395684, "required_final_county_share_points": 52.4114318395684, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 52.4114318395684, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 53.057858402878686, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 53.057858402878686, "required_final_county_share_points": 53.057858402878686, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.07865391656842785, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.999999999999999, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 53.70276565449549, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 53.70276565449549, "required_final_county_share_points": 53.70276565449549, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.10597932088248406, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -1.2198021519535516, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.00118239390297269, "criticality_score": 0.00096933252747509, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1923.862899024187, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 3545.0166821440307, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 4392.422490761002, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Mallory McMorrow": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 4.312913716273204, "expected_final_county_share_points": 4.312913716273204, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 33.377220084490844, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 33.377220084490844, "required_final_county_share_points": 33.377220084490844, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 33.377220084490844, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 38299.58886924408, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 33.377220084490844, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 33.377220084490844, "required_final_county_share_points": 33.377220084490844, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 33.377220084490844, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 33.93882994982512, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 33.93882994982512, "required_final_county_share_points": 33.93882994982512, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.159018308558073, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999906, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 34.49722375388291, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 34.49722375388291, "required_final_county_share_points": 34.49722375388291, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.213613509684069, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.999999999999993, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -29.06430636821764, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "WELL BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.00118239390297269, "criticality_score": 4.068199281940063e-05, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1876.9841830528455, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 3498.137966172689, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 4345.54377478966, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } } } }, { "cid": "fips:26141", "county": "Presque Isle", "fips": "26141", "reporting": 21.17, "current_votes": 344, "current_candidate_votes": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 107, "Haley Stevens": 219, "Mallory McMorrow": 18 }, "current_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 31.1046511627907, "Haley Stevens": 63.662790697674424, "Mallory McMorrow": 5.232558139534884 }, "estimated_remaining_votes": 1451.5801453614304, "estimated_final_votes": 1795.5801453614304, "turnout_disagreement_votes": 0.0, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 40.046781280512405, "Haley Stevens": 55.40365979279625, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.549558926691354 }, "remaining_sources": [ { "model": "v3", "remaining_votes": 1451.5801453614304, "weight": 0.1342208488636769 }, { "model": "histgeo", "remaining_votes": 1451.5801453614304, "weight": 0.05994207394479305 }, { "model": "latent", "remaining_votes": 1451.5801453614304, "weight": 0.07672787409296966 }, { "model": "batchbias", "remaining_votes": 1451.5801453614304, "weight": 0.045123489075924846 } ], "share_sources": [ { "model": "v0", "weight": 0.03630604611298715, "source": "statewide raw" }, { "model": "v1", "weight": 0.14599140026529184, "source": "county live" }, { "model": "v3", "weight": 0.15004242351696637, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "market", "weight": 0.0786646379365536, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "histgeo", "weight": 0.06573339512824654, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "latent", "weight": 0.08483492578364633, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "batchbias", "weight": 0.04883898267529022, "source": "county remaining" } ], "candidate_benchmarks": { "Abdul El-Sayed": { "opponent": "Haley Stevens", "expected_remaining_share_points": 40.046781280512405, "expected_final_county_share_points": 38.33363426869964, "current_county_share_points": 31.1046511627907, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 38.85842720902756, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 38.85842720902756, "required_final_county_share_points": 37.37294689404636, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 38.85842720902756, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": -1550.4824880720075, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": false }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 38.85842720902756, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 38.85842720902756, "required_final_county_share_points": 37.37294689404636, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 38.85842720902756, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 39.48897862890483, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 39.48897862890483, "required_final_county_share_points": 37.88269630517001, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.024044322225107804, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999973, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 40.12257246595796, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 40.12257246595796, "required_final_county_share_points": 38.39490526251764, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.003259695682198218, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.9999999999999996, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": 1.188354071484845, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "ABOVE", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.00118239390297269, "criticality_score": 0.0009949845179520378, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -1832.6244880560598, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -211.47070493621584, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 635.9351036807549, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Haley Stevens": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 55.40365979279625, "expected_final_county_share_points": 56.9859567671851, "current_county_share_points": 63.662790697674424, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 56.592013864281085, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 56.592013864281085, "required_final_county_share_points": 57.94664414183838, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 56.592013864281085, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1645.9329291453162, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 56.592013864281085, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 56.592013864281085, "required_final_county_share_points": 57.94664414183838, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 56.592013864281085, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 57.21953851968533, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 57.21953851968533, "required_final_county_share_points": 58.45394666067205, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.07865391656842785, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.999999999999999, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 57.84405196216951, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 57.84405196216951, "required_final_county_share_points": 58.95881485937829, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.10597932088248406, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -1.188354071484838, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.00118239390297269, "criticality_score": 0.0009949845179520436, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1928.0749291293687, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 3549.228712249212, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 4396.634520866183, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Mallory McMorrow": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 4.549558926691354, "expected_final_county_share_points": 4.680408964115266, "current_county_share_points": 5.232558139534884, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 31.98111180354053, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 31.98111180354053, "required_final_county_share_points": 26.85658284047061, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 31.98111180354053, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 38299.825514454504, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 31.98111180354053, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 31.98111180354053, "required_final_county_share_points": 26.85658284047061, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 31.98111180354053, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 32.461731370323626, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 32.461731370323626, "required_final_county_share_points": 27.245124573022533, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.159018308558073, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999906, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 32.93791657182699, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 32.93791657182699, "required_final_county_share_points": 27.630081482800605, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.213613509684069, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.999999999999993, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -27.431552876849175, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "WELL BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.00118239390297269, "criticality_score": 4.31034257623297e-05, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1877.2208282632637, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 3498.374611383107, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 4345.780420000078, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } } } }, { "cid": "26057", "county": "26057", "fips": null, "reporting": 0.0, "current_votes": 0, "current_candidate_votes": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 0, "Haley Stevens": 0, "Mallory McMorrow": 0 }, "current_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": null, "Haley Stevens": null, "Mallory McMorrow": null }, "estimated_remaining_votes": 1397.8102766628867, "estimated_final_votes": 1397.8102766628867, "turnout_disagreement_votes": 0.0, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 45.71366837579237, "Haley Stevens": 49.51054752463013, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.775784099577507 }, "remaining_sources": [ { "model": "market", "remaining_votes": 1397.8102766628867, "weight": 0.1780093144963334 } ], "share_sources": [ { "model": "v0", "weight": 0.03630604611298715, "source": "statewide raw" }, { "model": "v3", "weight": 0.06301781787712588, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "market", "weight": 0.18729675699179427, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "histgeo", "weight": 0.02760802595386354, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "latent", "weight": 0.03563066882913146, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "batchbias", "weight": 0.020512372723621893, "source": "statewide fallback" } ], "candidate_benchmarks": { "Abdul El-Sayed": { "opponent": "Haley Stevens", "expected_remaining_share_points": 45.71366837579237, "expected_final_county_share_points": 45.71366837579237, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 44.494792079836195, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 44.494792079836195, "required_final_county_share_points": 44.494792079836195, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 44.494792079836195, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": -1605.9988326370715, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": false }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 44.494792079836195, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 44.494792079836195, "required_final_county_share_points": 44.494792079836195, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 44.494792079836195, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 45.142479302794236, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 45.142479302794236, "required_final_county_share_points": 45.142479302794236, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.024044322225107804, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999973, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 45.79115045998886, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 45.79115045998886, "required_final_county_share_points": 45.79115045998886, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.003259695682198218, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.9999999999999996, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": 1.2188762959561785, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "ABOVE", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.0011385953120950434, "criticality_score": 0.0009341352488948383, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -1898.9940496469037, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -215.47899510572776, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 664.5241550993294, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Haley Stevens": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 49.51054752463013, "expected_final_county_share_points": 49.51054752463012, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 50.729423820586305, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 50.729423820586305, "required_final_county_share_points": 50.729423820586305, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 50.729423820586305, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1701.2230485374935, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 50.729423820586305, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 50.729423820586305, "required_final_county_share_points": 50.729423820586305, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 50.729423820586305, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 51.37612293749878, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 51.37612293749878, "required_final_county_share_points": 51.37612293749878, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.07865391656842785, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.999999999999999, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 52.02182979746676, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 52.02182979746676, "required_final_county_share_points": 52.02182979746676, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.10597932088248406, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -1.2188762959561785, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.0011385953120950434, "criticality_score": 0.0009341352488948383, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1994.2182655473262, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 3677.733320088502, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 4557.736470293559, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Mallory McMorrow": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 4.775784099577507, "expected_final_county_share_points": 4.775784099577507, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 35.33330336541867, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 35.33330336541867, "required_final_county_share_points": 35.33330336541867, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 35.33330336541867, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 39773.16436033238, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 35.33330336541867, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 35.33330336541867, "required_final_county_share_points": 35.33330336541867, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 35.33330336541867, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 35.897309697827865, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 35.897309697827865, "required_final_county_share_points": 35.897309697827865, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.159018308558073, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999906, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 36.45713713466048, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 36.45713713466048, "required_final_county_share_points": 36.45713713466048, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.213613509684069, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.999999999999993, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -30.557519265841165, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "WELL BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.0011385953120950434, "criticality_score": 3.726072467433004e-05, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1949.4835021222736, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 3632.998556663449, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 4513.0017068685065, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } } } }, { "cid": "fips:26057", "county": "Gratiot", "fips": "26057", "reporting": 52.459999999999994, "current_votes": 1835, "current_candidate_votes": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 746, "Haley Stevens": 973, "Mallory McMorrow": 116 }, "current_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 40.653950953678475, "Haley Stevens": 53.02452316076294, "Mallory McMorrow": 6.321525885558583 }, "estimated_remaining_votes": 1397.8102766628867, "estimated_final_votes": 3232.8102766628867, "turnout_disagreement_votes": 0.0, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 43.66830054096196, "Haley Stevens": 50.879047295444735, "Mallory McMorrow": 5.452652163593299 }, "remaining_sources": [ { "model": "v3", "remaining_votes": 1397.8102766628867, "weight": 0.1342208488636769 }, { "model": "histgeo", "remaining_votes": 1397.8102766628867, "weight": 0.05994207394479305 }, { "model": "latent", "remaining_votes": 1397.8102766628867, "weight": 0.07672787409296966 }, { "model": "batchbias", "remaining_votes": 1397.8102766628867, "weight": 0.045123489075924846 } ], "share_sources": [ { "model": "v0", "weight": 0.03630604611298715, "source": "statewide raw" }, { "model": "v1", "weight": 0.14599140026529184, "source": "county live" }, { "model": "v3", "weight": 0.15004242351696637, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "market", "weight": 0.0786646379365536, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "histgeo", "weight": 0.06573339512824654, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "latent", "weight": 0.08483492578364633, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "batchbias", "weight": 0.04883898267529022, "source": "county remaining" } ], "candidate_benchmarks": { "Abdul El-Sayed": { "opponent": "Haley Stevens", "expected_remaining_share_points": 43.66830054096196, "expected_final_county_share_points": 41.95730267245265, "current_county_share_points": 40.653950953678475, "recent_batch_votes": 78, "recent_batch_share_points": 28.205128205128204, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 42.46433495773232, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 42.46433495773232, "required_final_county_share_points": 41.43672914014997, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 42.46433495773232, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": -1608.0442004719027, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": false }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 42.46433495773232, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 42.46433495773232, "required_final_county_share_points": 41.43672914014997, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 42.46433495773232, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 43.10381927631105, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 43.10381927631105, "required_final_county_share_points": 41.71323090665537, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.024044322225107804, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999973, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 43.7449107363457, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 43.7449107363457, "required_final_county_share_points": 41.99042757284584, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.003259695682198218, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.9999999999999996, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": 1.203965583229639, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -14.259206752604115, "status": "ABOVE", "recent_status": "WELL BELOW", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.0011385953120950434, "criticality_score": 0.000945704202806828, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -1901.039417481734, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -217.52436294055818, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 662.4787872644989, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Haley Stevens": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 50.879047295444735, "expected_final_county_share_points": 52.09685715000969, "current_county_share_points": 53.02452316076294, "recent_batch_votes": 78, "recent_batch_share_points": 70.51282051282051, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 52.08301287867438, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 52.08301287867438, "required_final_county_share_points": 52.617430682312374, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 52.08301287867438, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1702.5915483083093, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 52.08301287867438, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 52.08301287867438, "required_final_county_share_points": 52.617430682312374, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 52.08301287867438, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 52.720889773332345, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 52.720889773332345, "required_final_county_share_points": 52.89323742699988, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.07865391656842785, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.999999999999999, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 53.3571589836196, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 53.3571589836196, "required_final_county_share_points": 53.168349037255524, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.10597932088248406, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -1.203965583229646, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": 18.42980763414613, "status": "BELOW", "recent_status": "WELL ABOVE", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.0011385953120950434, "criticality_score": 0.0009457042028068225, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1995.5867653181408, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 3679.1018198593165, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 4559.104970064374, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Mallory McMorrow": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 5.452652163593299, "expected_final_county_share_points": 5.945840177537663, "current_county_share_points": 6.321525885558583, "recent_batch_votes": 78, "recent_batch_share_points": 1.282051282051282, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 36.14784228974252, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 36.14784228974252, "required_final_county_share_points": 19.217900252384652, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 36.14784228974252, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 39773.84122839639, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 36.14784228974252, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 36.14784228974252, "required_final_county_share_points": 19.217900252384652, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 36.14784228974252, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 36.65452821074907, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 36.65452821074907, "required_final_county_share_points": 19.43698232860054, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.159018308558073, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999906, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 37.155544642236556, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 37.155544642236556, "required_final_county_share_points": 19.65361301731299, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.213613509684069, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.999999999999993, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -30.69519012614922, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -34.865791007691236, "status": "WELL BELOW", "recent_status": "WELL BELOW", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.0011385953120950434, "criticality_score": 3.709360676430782e-05, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1950.1603701862894, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 3633.6754247274653, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 4513.678574932523, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } } } }, { "cid": "fips:26023", "county": "Branch", "fips": "26023", "reporting": 45.38, "current_votes": 1514, "current_candidate_votes": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 567, "Haley Stevens": 868, "Mallory McMorrow": 79 }, "current_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 37.45046235138705, "Haley Stevens": 57.33157199471598, "Mallory McMorrow": 5.217965653896962 }, "estimated_remaining_votes": 1328.9638581037907, "estimated_final_votes": 2842.9638581037907, "turnout_disagreement_votes": 0.0, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 41.89518609345106, "Haley Stevens": 53.41155199201151, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.6932619145374295 }, "remaining_sources": [ { "model": "v3", "remaining_votes": 1328.9638581037907, "weight": 0.1342208488636769 }, { "model": "histgeo", "remaining_votes": 1328.9638581037907, "weight": 0.05994207394479305 }, { "model": "latent", "remaining_votes": 1328.9638581037907, "weight": 0.07672787409296966 }, { "model": "batchbias", "remaining_votes": 1328.9638581037907, "weight": 0.045123489075924846 } ], "share_sources": [ { "model": "v0", "weight": 0.03630604611298715, "source": "statewide raw" }, { "model": "v1", "weight": 0.14599140026529184, "source": "county live" }, { "model": "v3", "weight": 0.15004242351696637, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "market", "weight": 0.0786646379365536, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "histgeo", "weight": 0.06573339512824654, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "latent", "weight": 0.08483492578364633, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "batchbias", "weight": 0.04883898267529022, "source": "county remaining" } ], "candidate_benchmarks": { "Abdul El-Sayed": { "opponent": "Haley Stevens", "expected_remaining_share_points": 41.89518609345106, "expected_final_county_share_points": 39.52818036233591, "current_county_share_points": 37.45046235138705, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 40.69364585753238, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 40.69364585753238, "required_final_county_share_points": 38.966511756158674, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 40.69364585753238, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": -1695.3835923547356, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": false }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 40.69364585753238, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 40.69364585753238, "required_final_county_share_points": 38.966511756158674, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 40.69364585753238, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 41.331500515700704, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 41.331500515700704, "required_final_county_share_points": 39.264681493706526, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.024044322225107804, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999973, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 41.97173481245679, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 41.97173481245679, "required_final_county_share_points": 39.56396361038979, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.003259695682198218, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.9999999999999996, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": 1.201540235918678, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "ABOVE", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.0010825160209819013, "criticality_score": 0.0009009403003089841, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -2003.557304417737, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -232.8284544157449, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 692.7628920693714, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Haley Stevens": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 53.41155199201151, "expected_final_county_share_points": 55.499130512286136, "current_county_share_points": 57.33157199471598, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 54.61309222793018, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 54.61309222793018, "required_final_county_share_points": 56.06079911846338, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 54.61309222793018, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1790.6903304401983, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 54.61309222793018, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 54.61309222793018, "required_final_county_share_points": 56.06079911846338, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 54.61309222793018, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 55.248574199199396, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 55.248574199199396, "required_final_county_share_points": 56.35785972649258, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.07865391656842785, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.999999999999999, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 55.88169041937995, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 55.88169041937995, "required_final_county_share_points": 56.65381444719747, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.10597932088248406, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -1.2015402359186709, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.0010825160209819013, "criticality_score": 0.0009009403003089894, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 2098.8640425031995, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 3869.5928925051912, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 4795.184238990308, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Mallory McMorrow": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 4.6932619145374295, "expected_final_county_share_points": 4.972689125377945, "current_county_share_points": 5.217965653896962, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 33.27674958666581, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 33.27674958666581, "required_final_county_share_points": 18.33424556814967, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 33.27674958666581, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 41833.266626954646, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 33.27674958666581, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 33.27674958666581, "required_final_county_share_points": 18.33424556814967, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 33.27674958666581, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 33.78196194462779, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 33.78196194462779, "required_final_county_share_points": 18.570410710553798, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.159018308558073, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999906, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 34.28266415700371, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 34.28266415700371, "required_final_county_share_points": 18.804467553036496, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.213613509684069, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.999999999999993, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -28.583487672128378, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "WELL BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.0010825160209819013, "criticality_score": 3.7872076123077784e-05, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 2050.1457524257253, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 3820.874602427717, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 4746.4659489128335, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } } } }, { "cid": "26023", "county": "26023", "fips": null, "reporting": 0.0, "current_votes": 0, "current_candidate_votes": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 0, "Haley Stevens": 0, "Mallory McMorrow": 0 }, "current_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": null, "Haley Stevens": null, "Mallory McMorrow": null }, "estimated_remaining_votes": 1328.9638581037907, "estimated_final_votes": 1328.9638581037907, "turnout_disagreement_votes": 0.0, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 45.96531612487444, "Haley Stevens": 49.75912812341987, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.2755557517057 }, "remaining_sources": [ { "model": "market", "remaining_votes": 1328.9638581037907, "weight": 0.1780093144963334 } ], "share_sources": [ { "model": "v0", "weight": 0.03630604611298715, "source": "statewide raw" }, { "model": "v3", "weight": 0.06301781787712588, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "market", "weight": 0.18729675699179427, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "histgeo", "weight": 0.02760802595386354, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "latent", "weight": 0.03563066882913146, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "batchbias", "weight": 0.020512372723621893, "source": "statewide fallback" } ], "candidate_benchmarks": { "Abdul El-Sayed": { "opponent": "Haley Stevens", "expected_remaining_share_points": 45.96531612487444, "expected_final_county_share_points": 45.96531612487444, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 44.740005862807976, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 44.740005862807976, "required_final_county_share_points": 44.74000586280797, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 44.740005862807976, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": -1691.3134623233084, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": false }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 44.740005862807976, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 44.740005862807976, "required_final_county_share_points": 44.74000586280797, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 44.740005862807976, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 45.39111385141064, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 45.39111385141064, "required_final_county_share_points": 45.39111385141064, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.024044322225107804, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999973, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 46.04320669570189, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 46.04320669570189, "required_final_county_share_points": 46.04320669570189, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.003259695682198218, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.9999999999999996, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": 1.2253102620664649, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "ABOVE", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.0010825160209819013, "criticality_score": 0.0008834627885644706, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -1999.4871743863137, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -228.7583243843215, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 696.8330221007948, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Haley Stevens": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 49.75912812341987, "expected_final_county_share_points": 49.75912812341987, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 50.98443838548633, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 50.98443838548633, "required_final_county_share_points": 50.98443838548633, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 50.98443838548633, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1787.037906571603, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 50.98443838548633, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 50.98443838548633, "required_final_county_share_points": 50.98443838548633, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 50.98443838548633, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 51.6345573051189, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 51.6345573051189, "required_final_county_share_points": 51.6345573051189, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.07865391656842785, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.999999999999999, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 52.283682963440306, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 52.283682963440306, "required_final_county_share_points": 52.283682963440306, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.10597932088248406, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -1.2253102620664578, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.0010825160209819013, "criticality_score": 0.0008834627885644757, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 2095.211618634608, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 3865.9404686365997, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 4791.531815121716, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Mallory McMorrow": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 4.2755557517057, "expected_final_county_share_points": 4.2755557517057, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 33.905955789869566, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 33.905955789869566, "required_final_county_share_points": 33.905955789869566, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 33.905955789869566, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 41832.84892079181, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 33.905955789869566, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 33.905955789869566, "required_final_county_share_points": 33.905955789869566, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 33.905955789869566, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 34.49293643106823, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 34.49293643106823, "required_final_county_share_points": 34.49293643106823, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.159018308558073, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999906, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 35.07711214446507, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 35.07711214446507, "required_final_county_share_points": 35.07711214446507, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.213613509684069, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.999999999999993, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -29.630400038163867, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "WELL BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.0010825160209819013, "criticality_score": 3.653396577797208e-05, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 2049.7280462628937, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 3820.4568962648855, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 4746.048242750002, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } } } }, { "cid": "26031", "county": "26031", "fips": null, "reporting": 0.0, "current_votes": 0, "current_candidate_votes": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 0, "Haley Stevens": 0, "Mallory McMorrow": 0 }, "current_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": null, "Haley Stevens": null, "Mallory McMorrow": null }, "estimated_remaining_votes": 1277.7034008361702, "estimated_final_votes": 1277.7034008361702, "turnout_disagreement_votes": 0.0, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 46.25878790280384, "Haley Stevens": 49.62975324012126, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.1114588570749016 }, "remaining_sources": [ { "model": "market", "remaining_votes": 1277.7034008361702, "weight": 0.1780093144963334 } ], "share_sources": [ { "model": "v0", "weight": 0.03630604611298715, "source": "statewide raw" }, { "model": "v3", "weight": 0.06301781787712588, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "market", "weight": 0.18729675699179427, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "histgeo", "weight": 0.02760802595386354, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "latent", "weight": 0.03563066882913146, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "batchbias", "weight": 0.020512372723621893, "source": "statewide fallback" } ], "candidate_benchmarks": { "Abdul El-Sayed": { "opponent": "Haley Stevens", "expected_remaining_share_points": 46.25878790280384, "expected_final_county_share_points": 46.25878790280384, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 45.03082448501172, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 45.03082448501172, "required_final_county_share_points": 45.03082448501172, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 45.03082448501172, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": -1760.718251132546, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": false }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 45.03082448501172, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 45.03082448501172, "required_final_county_share_points": 45.03082448501172, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 45.03082448501172, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 45.68337742194211, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 45.68337742194211, "required_final_county_share_points": 45.68337742194211, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.024044322225107804, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999973, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 46.33683759790625, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 46.33683759790625, "required_final_county_share_points": 46.33683759790625, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.003259695682198218, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.9999999999999996, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": 1.2279634177921182, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "ABOVE", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.0010407614872549775, "criticality_score": 0.0008475508896887741, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -2081.255650564521, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -239.48654936755813, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 723.2387952212882, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Haley Stevens": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 49.62975324012126, "expected_final_county_share_points": 49.62975324012126, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 50.85771665791338, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 50.85771665791338, "required_final_county_share_points": 50.85771665791338, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 50.85771665791338, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1856.6067922754708, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 50.85771665791338, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 50.85771665791338, "required_final_county_share_points": 50.85771665791338, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 50.85771665791338, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 51.50935778564551, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 51.50935778564551, "required_final_county_share_points": 51.50935778564551, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.07865391656842785, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.999999999999999, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 52.16008255337068, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 52.16008255337068, "required_final_county_share_points": 52.16008255337068, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.10597932088248406, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -1.2279634177921182, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.0010407614872549775, "criticality_score": 0.0008475508896887741, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 2177.144191707446, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 4018.9132929044085, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 4981.638637493255, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Mallory McMorrow": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 4.1114588570749016, "expected_final_county_share_points": 4.1114588570749016, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 33.486436232129755, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 33.486436232129755, "required_final_county_share_points": 33.486436232129755, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 33.486436232129755, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 43510.81434608595, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 33.486436232129755, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 33.486436232129755, "required_final_county_share_points": 33.486436232129755, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 33.486436232129755, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 34.08441547908403, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 34.08441547908403, "required_final_county_share_points": 34.08441547908403, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.159018308558073, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999906, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 34.68017409211269, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 34.68017409211269, "required_final_county_share_points": 34.68017409211269, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.213613509684069, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.999999999999993, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -29.374977375054854, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "WELL BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.0010407614872549775, "criticality_score": 3.5430205578261626e-05, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 2131.6258973244, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 3973.394998521362, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 4936.1203431102085, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } } } }, { "cid": "fips:26031", "county": "Cheboygan", "fips": "26031", "reporting": 57.26, "current_votes": 1621, "current_candidate_votes": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 682, "Haley Stevens": 867, "Mallory McMorrow": 72 }, "current_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 42.07279457125232, "Haley Stevens": 53.48550277606415, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.441702652683529 }, "estimated_remaining_votes": 1277.7034008361702, "estimated_final_votes": 2898.70340083617, "turnout_disagreement_votes": 0.0, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 44.43260361080989, "Haley Stevens": 51.331470258170484, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.235926131019626 }, "remaining_sources": [ { "model": "v3", "remaining_votes": 1277.7034008361702, "weight": 0.1342208488636769 }, { "model": "histgeo", "remaining_votes": 1277.7034008361702, "weight": 0.05994207394479305 }, { "model": "latent", "remaining_votes": 1277.7034008361702, "weight": 0.07672787409296966 }, { "model": "batchbias", "remaining_votes": 1277.7034008361702, "weight": 0.045123489075924846 } ], "share_sources": [ { "model": "v0", "weight": 0.03630604611298715, "source": "statewide raw" }, { "model": "v1", "weight": 0.14599140026529184, "source": "county live" }, { "model": "v3", "weight": 0.15004242351696637, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "market", "weight": 0.0786646379365536, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "histgeo", "weight": 0.06573339512824654, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "latent", "weight": 0.08483492578364633, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "batchbias", "weight": 0.04883898267529022, "source": "county remaining" } ], "candidate_benchmarks": { "Abdul El-Sayed": { "opponent": "Haley Stevens", "expected_remaining_share_points": 44.43260361080989, "expected_final_county_share_points": 43.11296171436082, "current_county_share_points": 42.07279457125232, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 43.21224342521124, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 43.21224342521124, "required_final_county_share_points": 42.5750459141673, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 43.21224342521124, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": -1762.5444354245406, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": false }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 43.21224342521124, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 43.21224342521124, "required_final_county_share_points": 42.5750459141673, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 43.21224342521124, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 43.86046860938662, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 43.86046860938662, "required_final_county_share_points": 42.86077349915913, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.024044322225107804, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999973, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 44.51024807925615, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 44.51024807925615, "required_final_county_share_points": 43.147186189124696, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.003259695682198218, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.9999999999999996, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": 1.2203601855986506, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "ABOVE", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.0010407614872549775, "criticality_score": 0.0008528314013656793, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -2083.081834856515, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -241.31273365955207, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 721.4126109292943, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Haley Stevens": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 51.331470258170484, "expected_final_county_share_points": 52.53603872505759, "current_county_share_points": 53.48550277606415, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 52.551830443769134, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 52.551830443769134, "required_final_county_share_points": 53.0739545252511, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 52.551830443769134, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1858.308509293521, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 52.551830443769134, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 52.551830443769134, "required_final_county_share_points": 53.0739545252511, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 52.551830443769134, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 53.19850050667427, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 53.19850050667427, "required_final_county_share_points": 53.358996636960256, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.07865391656842785, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.999999999999999, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 53.843614636146434, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 53.843614636146434, "required_final_county_share_points": 53.643352917398005, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.10597932088248406, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -1.2203601855986506, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.0010407614872549775, "criticality_score": 0.0008528314013656793, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 2178.8459087254955, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 4020.615009922458, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 4983.340354511304, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Mallory McMorrow": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 4.235926131019626, "expected_final_county_share_points": 4.350999560581604, "current_county_share_points": 4.441702652683529, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 33.10641097976982, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 33.10641097976982, "required_final_county_share_points": 17.076660511059124, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 33.10641097976982, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 43510.93881335989, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 33.10641097976982, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 33.10641097976982, "required_final_county_share_points": 17.076660511059124, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 33.10641097976982, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 33.66991416855289, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 33.66991416855289, "required_final_county_share_points": 17.325043957424306, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.159018308558073, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999906, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 34.23040458039887, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 34.23040458039887, "required_final_county_share_points": 17.57209941854706, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.213613509684069, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.999999999999993, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -28.870484848750195, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "WELL BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.0010407614872549775, "criticality_score": 3.6049324862655785e-05, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 2131.7503645983447, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 3973.519465795307, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 4936.244810384153, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } } } }, { "cid": "26059", "county": "26059", "fips": null, "reporting": 0.0, "current_votes": 0, "current_candidate_votes": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 0, "Haley Stevens": 0, "Mallory McMorrow": 0 }, "current_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": null, "Haley Stevens": null, "Mallory McMorrow": null }, "estimated_remaining_votes": 1264.1567787725116, "estimated_final_votes": 1264.1567787725116, "turnout_disagreement_votes": 0.0, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 47.90680563223135, "Haley Stevens": 47.366648033244054, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.726546334524606 }, "remaining_sources": [ { "model": "market", "remaining_votes": 1264.1567787725116, "weight": 0.1780093144963334 } ], "share_sources": [ { "model": "v0", "weight": 0.03630604611298715, "source": "statewide raw" }, { "model": "v3", "weight": 0.06301781787712588, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "market", "weight": 0.18729675699179427, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "histgeo", "weight": 0.02760802595386354, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "latent", "weight": 0.03563066882913146, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "batchbias", "weight": 0.020512372723621893, "source": "statewide fallback" } ], "candidate_benchmarks": { "Abdul El-Sayed": { "opponent": "Haley Stevens", "expected_remaining_share_points": 47.90680563223135, "expected_final_county_share_points": 47.90680563223135, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 46.6839684484235, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 46.6839684484235, "required_final_county_share_points": 46.6839684484235, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 46.6839684484235, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": -1778.4336821751097, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": false }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 46.6839684484235, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 46.6839684484235, "required_final_county_share_points": 46.6839684484235, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 46.6839684484235, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 47.3341161918114, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 47.3341161918114, "required_final_county_share_points": 47.334116191811404, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.024044322225107804, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999973, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 47.98444296679915, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 47.98444296679915, "required_final_county_share_points": 47.98444296679915, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.003259695682198218, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.9999999999999996, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": 1.2228371838078473, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "ABOVE", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.0010297269995037297, "criticality_score": 0.0008420802156974134, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -2102.4059395932777, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -240.90056014239008, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 732.1412868085398, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Haley Stevens": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 47.366648033244054, "expected_final_county_share_points": 47.36664803324406, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.589485217051916, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.589485217051916, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.58948521705192, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 48.589485217051916, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1873.707135840585, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.589485217051916, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.589485217051916, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.58948521705192, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 48.589485217051916, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 49.23944755759535, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 49.23944755759535, "required_final_county_share_points": 49.23944755759535, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.07865391656842785, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.999999999999999, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 49.88921811990241, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 49.88921811990241, "required_final_county_share_points": 49.88921811990241, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.10597932088248406, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -1.2228371838078615, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.0010297269995037297, "criticality_score": 0.0008420802156974037, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 2197.679393258753, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 4059.18477270964, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 5032.226619660571, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Mallory McMorrow": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 4.726546334524606, "expected_final_county_share_points": 4.726546334524606, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 36.19378079591451, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 36.19378079591451, "required_final_county_share_points": 36.19378079591451, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 36.19378079591451, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 43977.64444039304, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 36.19378079591451, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 36.19378079591451, "required_final_county_share_points": 36.19378079591451, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 36.19378079591451, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 36.79530869719677, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 36.79530869719677, "required_final_county_share_points": 36.79530869719677, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.159018308558073, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999906, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 37.39314977634701, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 37.39314977634701, "required_final_county_share_points": 37.39314977634701, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.213613509684069, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.999999999999993, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -31.467234461389907, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "WELL BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.0010297269995037297, "criticality_score": 3.2723784505664076e-05, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 2155.0392915600337, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 4016.544671010921, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 4989.586517961851, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } } } }, { "cid": "fips:26059", "county": "Hillsdale", "fips": "26059", "reporting": 54.47, "current_votes": 1571, "current_candidate_votes": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 692, "Haley Stevens": 782, "Mallory McMorrow": 97 }, "current_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 44.04837683004455, "Haley Stevens": 49.77721196690006, "Mallory McMorrow": 6.174411203055379 }, "estimated_remaining_votes": 1264.1567787725116, "estimated_final_votes": 2835.1567787725116, "turnout_disagreement_votes": 0.0, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 45.82297625840502, "Haley Stevens": 48.800132940938745, "Mallory McMorrow": 5.376890800656231 }, "remaining_sources": [ { "model": "v3", "remaining_votes": 1264.1567787725116, "weight": 0.1342208488636769 }, { "model": "histgeo", "remaining_votes": 1264.1567787725116, "weight": 0.05994207394479305 }, { "model": "latent", "remaining_votes": 1264.1567787725116, "weight": 0.07672787409296966 }, { "model": "batchbias", "remaining_votes": 1264.1567787725116, "weight": 0.045123489075924846 } ], "share_sources": [ { "model": "v0", "weight": 0.03630604611298715, "source": "statewide raw" }, { "model": "v1", "weight": 0.14599140026529184, "source": "county live" }, { "model": "v3", "weight": 0.15004242351696637, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "market", "weight": 0.0786646379365536, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "histgeo", "weight": 0.06573339512824654, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "latent", "weight": 0.08483492578364633, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "batchbias", "weight": 0.04883898267529022, "source": "county remaining" } ], "candidate_benchmarks": { "Abdul El-Sayed": { "opponent": "Haley Stevens", "expected_remaining_share_points": 45.82297625840502, "expected_final_county_share_points": 44.83964591038761, "current_county_share_points": 44.04837683004455, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 44.61080501558737, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 44.61080501558737, "required_final_county_share_points": 44.29915569654326, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 44.61080501558737, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": -1780.5175115489337, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": false }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 44.61080501558737, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 44.61080501558737, "required_final_county_share_points": 44.29915569654326, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 44.61080501558737, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 45.25499439855413, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 45.25499439855413, "required_final_county_share_points": 44.58639073814236, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.024044322225107804, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999973, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 45.90001444094713, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 45.90001444094713, "required_final_county_share_points": 44.87399615916895, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.003259695682198218, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.9999999999999996, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": 1.2121712428176536, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "ABOVE", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.0010297269995037297, "criticality_score": 0.0008494897116270156, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -2104.489768967104, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -242.9843895162164, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 730.0574574347135, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Haley Stevens": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 48.800132940938745, "expected_final_county_share_points": 49.341546086510824, "current_county_share_points": 49.77721196690006, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 50.0123041837564, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 50.0123041837564, "required_final_county_share_points": 49.88203630035518, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 50.0123041837564, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1875.1406207482778, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 50.0123041837564, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 50.0123041837564, "required_final_county_share_points": 49.88203630035518, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 50.0123041837564, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 50.655658134447954, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 50.655658134447954, "required_final_county_share_points": 50.16889883438018, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.07865391656842785, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.999999999999999, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 51.2981718976128, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 51.2981718976128, "required_final_county_share_points": 50.45538674053086, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.10597932088248406, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -1.2121712428176536, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.0010297269995037297, "criticality_score": 0.0008494897116270156, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 2199.112878166448, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 4060.618257617335, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 5033.6601045682655, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Mallory McMorrow": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 5.376890800656231, "expected_final_county_share_points": 5.818808003101561, "current_county_share_points": 6.174411203055379, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 37.050208208433965, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 37.050208208433965, "required_final_county_share_points": 19.941497516092465, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 37.050208208433965, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 43978.29478485917, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 37.050208208433965, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 37.050208208433965, "required_final_county_share_points": 19.941497516092465, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 37.050208208433965, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 37.5939960552779, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 37.5939960552779, "required_final_county_share_points": 20.18396491611381, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.159018308558073, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999906, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 38.13239576317523, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 38.13239576317523, "required_final_county_share_points": 20.42402982029249, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.213613509684069, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.999999999999993, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -31.673317407777734, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "WELL BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.0010297269995037297, "criticality_score": 3.251086667829966e-05, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 2155.6896360261653, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 4017.1950154770525, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 4990.2368624279825, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } } } }, { "cid": "fips:26127", "county": "Oceana", "fips": "26127", "reporting": 51.29, "current_votes": 1350, "current_candidate_votes": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 530, "Haley Stevens": 772, "Mallory McMorrow": 48 }, "current_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 39.25925925925926, "Haley Stevens": 57.18518518518518, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.5555555555555554 }, "estimated_remaining_votes": 1240.3814241764385, "estimated_final_votes": 2590.3814241764385, "turnout_disagreement_votes": 0.0, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 42.78045962102668, "Haley Stevens": 53.571754131483985, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.647786247489357 }, "remaining_sources": [ { "model": "v3", "remaining_votes": 1240.3814241764385, "weight": 0.1342208488636769 }, { "model": "histgeo", "remaining_votes": 1240.3814241764385, "weight": 0.05994207394479305 }, { "model": "latent", "remaining_votes": 1240.3814241764385, "weight": 0.07672787409296966 }, { "model": "batchbias", "remaining_votes": 1240.3814241764385, "weight": 0.045123489075924846 } ], "share_sources": [ { "model": "v0", "weight": 0.03630604611298715, "source": "statewide raw" }, { "model": "v1", "weight": 0.14599140026529184, "source": "county live" }, { "model": "v3", "weight": 0.15004242351696637, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "market", "weight": 0.0786646379365536, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "histgeo", "weight": 0.06573339512824654, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "latent", "weight": 0.08483492578364633, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "batchbias", "weight": 0.04883898267529022, "source": "county remaining" } ], "candidate_benchmarks": { "Abdul El-Sayed": { "opponent": "Haley Stevens", "expected_remaining_share_points": 42.78045962102668, "expected_final_county_share_points": 40.94535516728882, "current_county_share_points": 39.25925925925926, "recent_batch_votes": 479, "recent_batch_share_points": 47.390396659707726, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 41.56292750719457, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 41.56292750719457, "required_final_county_share_points": 40.362350593815336, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 41.56292750719457, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": -1818.5669154747213, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": false }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 41.56292750719457, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 41.56292750719457, "required_final_county_share_points": 40.362350593815336, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 41.56292750719457, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 42.209340247099455, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 42.209340247099455, "required_final_county_share_points": 40.671879664494156, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.024044322225107804, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999973, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 42.8580085085387, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 42.8580085085387, "required_final_county_share_points": 40.98248877187604, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.003259695682198218, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.9999999999999996, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": 1.2175321138321067, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": 5.827469152513153, "status": "ABOVE", "recent_status": "WELL ABOVE", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.0010103606321658718, "criticality_score": 0.000829843106959885, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -2148.749000893601, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -251.56270135127636, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 740.1301947827196, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Haley Stevens": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 53.571754131483985, "expected_final_county_share_points": 55.4549254192983, "current_county_share_points": 57.18518518518518, "recent_batch_votes": 479, "recent_batch_share_points": 49.26931106471816, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 54.78928624531609, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 54.78928624531609, "required_final_county_share_points": 56.03792999277179, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 54.78928624531609, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1914.9191292272317, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 54.78928624531609, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 54.78928624531609, "required_final_county_share_points": 56.03792999277179, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 54.78928624531609, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 55.43344883002952, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 55.43344883002952, "required_final_county_share_points": 56.34638159637376, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.07865391656842785, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.999999999999999, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 56.07536662177534, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 56.07536662177534, "required_final_county_share_points": 56.65375830055277, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.10597932088248406, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -1.2175321138321067, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -5.519975180597932, "status": "BELOW", "recent_status": "WELL BELOW", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.0010103606321658718, "criticality_score": 0.000829843106959885, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 2245.1012146461117, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 4142.287514188436, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 5133.980410322433, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Mallory McMorrow": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 3.647786247489357, "expected_final_county_share_points": 3.599719413412897, "current_county_share_points": 3.5555555555555554, "recent_batch_votes": 479, "recent_batch_share_points": 3.3402922755741122, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 30.433648216457904, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 30.433648216457904, "required_final_county_share_points": 16.425894472719406, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 30.433648216457904, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 44819.42876675492, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 30.433648216457904, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 30.433648216457904, "required_final_county_share_points": 16.425894472719406, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 30.433648216457904, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 30.992480190119885, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 30.992480190119885, "required_final_county_share_points": 16.693486261672476, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.159018308558073, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999906, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 31.549788556167734, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 31.549788556167734, "required_final_county_share_points": 16.96034848448341, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.213613509684069, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.999999999999993, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -26.785861968968547, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -27.093355940883793, "status": "WELL BELOW", "recent_status": "WELL BELOW", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.0010103606321658718, "criticality_score": 3.771992229842653e-05, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 2195.177246762117, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 4092.3635463044416, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 5084.056442438438, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } } } }, { "cid": "26127", "county": "26127", "fips": null, "reporting": 0.0, "current_votes": 0, "current_candidate_votes": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 0, "Haley Stevens": 0, "Mallory McMorrow": 0 }, "current_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": null, "Haley Stevens": null, "Mallory McMorrow": null }, "estimated_remaining_votes": 1240.3814241764385, "estimated_final_votes": 1240.3814241764385, "turnout_disagreement_votes": 0.0, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 46.26976603544071, "Haley Stevens": 50.02884439597427, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.701389568585018 }, "remaining_sources": [ { "model": "market", "remaining_votes": 1240.3814241764385, "weight": 0.1780093144963334 } ], "share_sources": [ { "model": "v0", "weight": 0.03630604611298715, "source": "statewide raw" }, { "model": "v3", "weight": 0.06301781787712588, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "market", "weight": 0.18729675699179427, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "histgeo", "weight": 0.02760802595386354, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "latent", "weight": 0.03563066882913146, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "batchbias", "weight": 0.020512372723621893, "source": "statewide fallback" } ], "candidate_benchmarks": { "Abdul El-Sayed": { "opponent": "Haley Stevens", "expected_remaining_share_points": 46.26976603544071, "expected_final_county_share_points": 46.26976603544072, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 45.037029369992084, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 45.037029369992084, "required_final_county_share_points": 45.037029369992084, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 45.037029369992084, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": -1815.0776090603088, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": false }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 45.037029369992084, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 45.037029369992084, "required_final_county_share_points": 45.037029369992084, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 45.037029369992084, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 45.69208831568155, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 45.69208831568155, "required_final_county_share_points": 45.69208831568156, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.024044322225107804, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999973, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 46.348127412385274, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 46.348127412385274, "required_final_county_share_points": 46.34812741238527, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.003259695682198218, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.9999999999999996, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": 1.232736665448627, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "ABOVE", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.0010103606321658718, "criticality_score": 0.0008196078371678624, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -2145.259694479187, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -248.07339493686234, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 743.6195011971337, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Haley Stevens": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 50.02884439597427, "expected_final_county_share_points": 50.02884439597427, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 51.26158106142289, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 51.26158106142289, "required_final_county_share_points": 51.26158106142289, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 51.26158106142289, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1911.3762194917235, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 51.26158106142289, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 51.26158106142289, "required_final_county_share_points": 51.26158106142289, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 51.26158106142289, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 51.91565556904912, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 51.91565556904912, "required_final_county_share_points": 51.91565556904912, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.07865391656842785, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.999999999999999, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 52.568741372427276, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 52.568741372427276, "required_final_county_share_points": 52.568741372427276, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.10597932088248406, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -1.2327366654486198, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.0010103606321658718, "criticality_score": 0.000819607837167867, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 2241.558304910602, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 4138.744604452926, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 5130.437500586923, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Mallory McMorrow": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 3.701389568585018, "expected_final_county_share_points": 3.7013895685850184, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 32.0288806705017, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 32.0288806705017, "required_final_county_share_points": 32.0288806705017, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 32.0288806705017, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 44819.48237007602, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 32.0288806705017, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 32.0288806705017, "required_final_county_share_points": 32.0288806705017, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 32.0288806705017, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 32.64232199494372, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 32.64232199494372, "required_final_county_share_points": 32.64232199494372, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.159018308558073, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999906, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 33.255039969712776, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 33.255039969712776, "required_final_county_share_points": 33.255039969712776, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.213613509684069, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.999999999999993, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -28.32749110191668, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "WELL BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.0010103606321658718, "criticality_score": 3.566714145388997e-05, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 2195.2308500832128, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 4092.417149625537, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 5084.110045759534, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } } } }, { "cid": "26003", "county": "26003", "fips": null, "reporting": 0.0, "current_votes": 0, "current_candidate_votes": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 0, "Haley Stevens": 0, "Mallory McMorrow": 0 }, "current_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": null, "Haley Stevens": null, "Mallory McMorrow": null }, "estimated_remaining_votes": 1187.3829746305028, "estimated_final_votes": 1187.3829746305028, "turnout_disagreement_votes": 0.0, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 49.78107924606265, "Haley Stevens": 44.19033989539461, "Mallory McMorrow": 6.028580858542726 }, "remaining_sources": [ { "model": "market", "remaining_votes": 1187.3829746305028, "weight": 0.1780093144963334 } ], "share_sources": [ { "model": "v0", "weight": 0.03630604611298715, "source": "statewide raw" }, { "model": "v3", "weight": 0.06301781787712588, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "market", "weight": 0.18729675699179427, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "histgeo", "weight": 0.02760802595386354, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "latent", "weight": 0.03563066882913146, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "batchbias", "weight": 0.020512372723621893, "source": "statewide fallback" } ], "candidate_benchmarks": { "Abdul El-Sayed": { "opponent": "Haley Stevens", "expected_remaining_share_points": 49.78107924606265, "expected_final_county_share_points": 49.78107924606265, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.57752122295603, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.57752122295603, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.57752122295603, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 48.57752122295603, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": -1894.6469253131233, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": false }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.57752122295603, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.57752122295603, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.57752122295603, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 48.57752122295603, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 49.21783313064474, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 49.21783313064474, "required_final_county_share_points": 49.21783313064474, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.024044322225107804, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999973, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 49.85738028071766, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 49.85738028071766, "required_final_county_share_points": 49.85738028071766, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.003259695682198218, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.9999999999999996, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": 1.2035580231066234, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "ABOVE", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.0009671904056989639, "criticality_score": 0.0008036092877370818, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -2239.566579796853, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -257.69999215554924, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 778.2567910677624, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Haley Stevens": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 44.19033989539461, "expected_final_county_share_points": 44.19033989539461, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 45.39389791850123, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 45.39389791850123, "required_final_county_share_points": 45.39389791850123, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 45.39389791850123, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1988.6183444545807, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 45.39389791850123, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 45.39389791850123, "required_final_county_share_points": 45.39389791850123, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 45.39389791850123, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 46.034969594667984, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 46.034969594667984, "required_final_county_share_points": 46.034969594667984, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.07865391656842785, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.999999999999999, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 46.67679601191516, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 46.67679601191516, "required_final_county_share_points": 46.67679601191515, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.10597932088248406, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -1.2035580231066234, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.0009671904056989639, "criticality_score": 0.0008036092877370818, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 2333.5379989383105, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 4315.404586579614, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 5351.361369802927, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Mallory McMorrow": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 6.028580858542726, "expected_final_county_share_points": 6.028580858542726, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 40.73569294218947, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 40.73569294218947, "required_final_county_share_points": 40.73569294218947, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 40.73569294218947, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 46822.14724339839, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 40.73569294218947, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 40.73569294218947, "required_final_county_share_points": 40.73569294218947, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 40.73569294218947, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 41.31982430328867, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 41.31982430328867, "required_final_county_share_points": 41.31982430328867, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.159018308558073, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999906, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 41.89778507077519, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 41.89778507077519, "required_final_county_share_points": 41.89778507077519, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.213613509684069, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.999999999999993, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -34.70711208364675, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "WELL BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.0009671904056989639, "criticality_score": 2.7867210713699323e-05, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 2295.3762399014586, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 4277.242827542763, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 5313.199610766075, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } } } }, { "cid": "fips:26003", "county": "Alger", "fips": "26003", "reporting": 20.65, "current_votes": 291, "current_candidate_votes": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 152, "Haley Stevens": 107, "Mallory McMorrow": 32 }, "current_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 52.23367697594502, "Haley Stevens": 36.769759450171826, "Mallory McMorrow": 10.996563573883162 }, "estimated_remaining_votes": 1187.3829746305028, "estimated_final_votes": 1478.3829746305028, "turnout_disagreement_votes": 0.0, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 50.733700729169016, "Haley Stevens": 41.848202633581764, "Mallory McMorrow": 7.418096637249221 }, "remaining_sources": [ { "model": "v3", "remaining_votes": 1187.3829746305028, "weight": 0.1342208488636769 }, { "model": "histgeo", "remaining_votes": 1187.3829746305028, "weight": 0.05994207394479305 }, { "model": "latent", "remaining_votes": 1187.3829746305028, "weight": 0.07672787409296966 }, { "model": "batchbias", "remaining_votes": 1187.3829746305028, "weight": 0.045123489075924846 } ], "share_sources": [ { "model": "v0", "weight": 0.03630604611298715, "source": "statewide raw" }, { "model": "v1", "weight": 0.14599140026529184, "source": "county live" }, { "model": "v3", "weight": 0.15004242351696637, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "market", "weight": 0.0786646379365536, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "histgeo", "weight": 0.06573339512824654, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "latent", "weight": 0.08483492578364633, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "batchbias", "weight": 0.04883898267529022, "source": "county remaining" } ], "candidate_benchmarks": { "Abdul El-Sayed": { "opponent": "Haley Stevens", "expected_remaining_share_points": 50.733700729169016, "expected_final_county_share_points": 51.02895107721967, "current_county_share_points": 52.23367697594502, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 49.553581520396875, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 49.553581520396875, "required_final_county_share_points": 50.0811226183045, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 49.553581520396875, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": -1893.6943038300183, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": false }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 49.553581520396875, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 49.553581520396875, "required_final_county_share_points": 50.0811226183045, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 49.553581520396875, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 50.18169926774429, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 50.18169926774429, "required_final_county_share_points": 50.58560375212572, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.024044322225107804, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999973, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 50.808441227926124, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 50.808441227926124, "required_final_county_share_points": 51.08897990416268, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.003259695682198218, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.9999999999999996, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": 1.1801192087721404, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "ABOVE", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.0009671904056989639, "criticality_score": 0.000819570089622794, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -2238.613958313747, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -256.74737067244286, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 779.2094125508688, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Haley Stevens": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 41.848202633581764, "expected_final_county_share_points": 40.84857872574986, "current_county_share_points": 36.769759450171826, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 43.028321842353904, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 43.028321842353904, "required_final_county_share_points": 41.796407184665036, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 43.028321842353904, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1986.2762071927687, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 43.028321842353904, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 43.028321842353904, "required_final_county_share_points": 41.796407184665036, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 43.028321842353904, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 43.65781366202224, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 43.65781366202224, "required_final_county_share_points": 42.301991922970196, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.07865391656842785, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.999999999999999, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 44.28867779320415, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 44.28867779320415, "required_final_county_share_points": 42.808678851543405, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.10597932088248406, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -1.1801192087721404, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.0009671904056989639, "criticality_score": 0.000819570089622794, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 2331.1958616764978, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 4313.062449317801, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 5349.0192325411135, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Mallory McMorrow": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 7.418096637249221, "expected_final_county_share_points": 8.122470197030468, "current_county_share_points": 10.996563573883162, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 44.51016120478676, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 44.51016120478676, "required_final_county_share_points": 37.91345583280397, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 44.51016120478676, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 46823.5367591771, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 44.51016120478676, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 44.51016120478676, "required_final_county_share_points": 37.91345583280397, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 44.51016120478676, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 45.06346257864349, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 45.06346257864349, "required_final_county_share_points": 38.35784719987943, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.159018308558073, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999906, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 45.608873470073505, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 45.608873470073505, "required_final_county_share_points": 38.79590122091137, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.213613509684069, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.999999999999993, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -37.09206456753754, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "WELL BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.0009671904056989639, "criticality_score": 2.6075399603003912e-05, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 2296.765755680165, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 4278.632343321469, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 5314.589126544782, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } } } }, { "cid": "26067", "county": "26067", "fips": null, "reporting": 0.0, "current_votes": 0, "current_candidate_votes": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 0, "Haley Stevens": 0, "Mallory McMorrow": 0 }, "current_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": null, "Haley Stevens": null, "Mallory McMorrow": null }, "estimated_remaining_votes": 1155.4377744995945, "estimated_final_votes": 1155.4377744995945, "turnout_disagreement_votes": 0.0, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 49.310104438730704, "Haley Stevens": 46.81016573932359, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.8797298219457037 }, "remaining_sources": [ { "model": "market", "remaining_votes": 1155.4377744995945, "weight": 0.1780093144963334 } ], "share_sources": [ { "model": "v0", "weight": 0.03630604611298715, "source": "statewide raw" }, { "model": "v3", "weight": 0.06301781787712588, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "market", "weight": 0.18729675699179427, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "histgeo", "weight": 0.02760802595386354, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "latent", "weight": 0.03563066882913146, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "batchbias", "weight": 0.020512372723621893, "source": "statewide fallback" } ], "candidate_benchmarks": { "Abdul El-Sayed": { "opponent": "Haley Stevens", "expected_remaining_share_points": 49.310104438730704, "expected_final_county_share_points": 49.310104438730704, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.076549179833556, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.076549179833556, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.076549179833556, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 48.076549179833556, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": -1948.8768676015827, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": false }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.076549179833556, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.076549179833556, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.076549179833556, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 48.076549179833556, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.73255582712759, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.73255582712759, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.73255582712759, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.024044322225107804, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999973, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 49.38837877284581, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 49.38837877284581, "required_final_county_share_points": 49.38837877284581, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.003259695682198218, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.9999999999999996, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": 1.2335552588971481, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "ABOVE", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.0009411692383629892, "criticality_score": 0.0007629729041927439, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -2303.3327581637413, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -266.6721122250261, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 797.9264961985851, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Haley Stevens": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 46.81016573932359, "expected_final_county_share_points": 46.81016573932358, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.043720998220735, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.043720998220735, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.043720998220735, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 48.043720998220735, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 2044.997137779637, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.043720998220735, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.043720998220735, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.043720998220735, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 48.043720998220735, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.69990491562012, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.69990491562012, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.69990491562012, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.07865391656842785, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.999999999999999, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 49.35625965308465, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 49.35625965308465, "required_final_county_share_points": 49.35625965308465, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.10597932088248406, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -1.2335552588971481, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.0009411692383629892, "criticality_score": 0.0007629729041927439, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 2399.4530283417957, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 4436.11367428051, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 5500.712282704122, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Mallory McMorrow": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 3.8797298219457037, "expected_final_county_share_points": 3.8797298219457037, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 33.888423759904335, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 33.888423759904335, "required_final_county_share_points": 33.888423759904335, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 33.888423759904335, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 48114.356524866926, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 33.888423759904335, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 33.888423759904335, "required_final_county_share_points": 33.888423759904335, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 33.888423759904335, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 34.54452907635709, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 34.54452907635709, "required_final_county_share_points": 34.54452907635709, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.159018308558073, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999906, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 35.200128120057784, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 35.200128120057784, "required_final_county_share_points": 35.200128120057784, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.213613509684069, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.999999999999993, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -30.008693937958633, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "WELL BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.0009411692383629892, "criticality_score": 3.136321894944199e-05, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 2356.522592424418, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 4393.183238363133, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 5457.781846786745, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } } } }, { "cid": "fips:26153", "county": "Schoolcraft", "fips": "26153", "reporting": 0.0, "current_votes": 0, "current_candidate_votes": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 0, "Haley Stevens": 0, "Mallory McMorrow": 0 }, "current_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": null, "Haley Stevens": null, "Mallory McMorrow": null }, "estimated_remaining_votes": 987.1481570043143, "estimated_final_votes": 987.1481570043143, "turnout_disagreement_votes": 1.1368683772161603e-13, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 49.054050055778966, "Haley Stevens": 47.06205793393476, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.8838920102862757 }, "remaining_sources": [ { "model": "v3", "remaining_votes": 987.1481570043142, "weight": 0.1342208488636769 }, { "model": "histgeo", "remaining_votes": 987.1481570043142, "weight": 0.05994207394479305 }, { "model": "latent", "remaining_votes": 987.1481570043142, "weight": 0.07672787409296966 }, { "model": "batchbias", "remaining_votes": 987.1481570043142, "weight": 0.045123489075924846 } ], "share_sources": [ { "model": "v0", "weight": 0.03630604611298715, "source": "statewide raw" }, { "model": "v3", "weight": 0.15004242351696637, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "market", "weight": 0.0786646379365536, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "histgeo", "weight": 0.06573339512824654, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "latent", "weight": 0.08483492578364633, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "batchbias", "weight": 0.04883898267529022, "source": "county remaining" } ], "candidate_benchmarks": { "Abdul El-Sayed": { "opponent": "Haley Stevens", "expected_remaining_share_points": 49.054050055778966, "expected_final_county_share_points": 49.05405005577896, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 47.820410841463485, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 47.820410841463485, "required_final_county_share_points": 47.820410841463485, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 47.820410841463485, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": -2289.7850508698307, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": false }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 47.820410841463485, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 47.820410841463485, "required_final_county_share_points": 47.820410841463485, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 47.820410841463485, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.47642045549751, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.47642045549751, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.47642045549751, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.024044322225107804, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999973, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 49.132341014357, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 49.132341014357, "required_final_county_share_points": 49.132341014357, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.003259695682198218, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.9999999999999996, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": 1.233639214315481, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "ABOVE", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.0008040878527461584, "criticality_score": 0.0006518014695182406, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -2704.6687969857876, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -320.7970068629488, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 925.2950190647931, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Haley Stevens": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 47.06205793393476, "expected_final_county_share_points": 47.06205793393476, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.29569714825025, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.29569714825025, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.29569714825025, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 48.29569714825025, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 2385.9011588595445, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.29569714825025, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.29569714825025, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.29569714825025, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 48.29569714825025, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.95178932831056, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.95178932831056, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.95178932831056, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.07865391656842785, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.999999999999999, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 49.60795757040527, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 49.60795757040527, "required_final_county_share_points": 49.60795757040527, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.10597932088248406, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -1.2336392143154882, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.0008040878527461584, "criticality_score": 0.0006518014695182369, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 2800.7849049755014, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 5184.65669509834, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 6430.748721026082, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Mallory McMorrow": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 3.8838920102862757, "expected_final_county_share_points": 3.883892010286276, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 33.8047145477324, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 33.8047145477324, "required_final_county_share_points": 33.8047145477324, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 33.8047145477324, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 56316.26399802734, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 33.8047145477324, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 33.8047145477324, "required_final_county_share_points": 33.8047145477324, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 33.8047145477324, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 34.45653296572884, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 34.45653296572884, "required_final_county_share_points": 34.45653296572884, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.159018308558073, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999906, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 35.10774767658412, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 35.10774767658412, "required_final_county_share_points": 35.10774767658412, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.213613509684069, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.999999999999993, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -29.920822537446128, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "WELL BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.0008040878527461584, "criticality_score": 2.6873855213700647e-05, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 2757.606739051853, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 5141.478529174691, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 6387.570555102434, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } } } }, { "cid": "26153", "county": "26153", "fips": null, "reporting": 0.0, "current_votes": 0, "current_candidate_votes": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 0, "Haley Stevens": 0, "Mallory McMorrow": 0 }, "current_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": null, "Haley Stevens": null, "Mallory McMorrow": null }, "estimated_remaining_votes": 987.1481570043142, "estimated_final_votes": 987.1481570043142, "turnout_disagreement_votes": 0.0, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 48.973903537573875, "Haley Stevens": 46.149745434179586, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.8763510282465425 }, "remaining_sources": [ { "model": "market", "remaining_votes": 987.1481570043142, "weight": 0.1780093144963334 } ], "share_sources": [ { "model": "v0", "weight": 0.03630604611298715, "source": "statewide raw" }, { "model": "v3", "weight": 0.06301781787712588, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "market", "weight": 0.18729675699179427, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "histgeo", "weight": 0.02760802595386354, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "latent", "weight": 0.03563066882913146, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "batchbias", "weight": 0.020512372723621893, "source": "statewide fallback" } ], "candidate_benchmarks": { "Abdul El-Sayed": { "opponent": "Haley Stevens", "expected_remaining_share_points": 48.973903537573875, "expected_final_county_share_points": 48.97390353757388, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 47.75327342108671, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 47.75327342108671, "required_final_county_share_points": 47.75327342108671, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 47.75327342108671, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": -2289.8651973880324, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": false }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 47.75327342108671, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 47.75327342108671, "required_final_county_share_points": 47.75327342108671, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 47.75327342108671, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.402435191598066, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.402435191598066, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.402435191598066, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.024044322225107804, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999973, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 49.05134992915548, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 49.05134992915548, "required_final_county_share_points": 49.05134992915548, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.003259695682198218, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.9999999999999996, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": 1.2206301164871647, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "ABOVE", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.0008040878527461583, "criticality_score": 0.0006587481677580037, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -2704.7489435039934, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -320.877153381154, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 925.2148725465881, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Haley Stevens": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 46.149745434179586, "expected_final_county_share_points": 46.14974543417958, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 47.37037555066674, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 47.37037555066674, "required_final_county_share_points": 47.37037555066674, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 47.37037555066674, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 2384.988846359786, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 47.37037555066674, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 47.37037555066674, "required_final_county_share_points": 47.37037555066674, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 47.37037555066674, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.01977805349677, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.01977805349677, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.01977805349677, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.07865391656842785, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.999999999999999, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.6694149671013, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.6694149671013, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.6694149671013, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.10597932088248406, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -1.2206301164871576, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.0008040878527461583, "criticality_score": 0.0006587481677580075, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 2799.872592475747, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 5183.744382598586, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 6429.836408526328, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Mallory McMorrow": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 4.8763510282465425, "expected_final_county_share_points": 4.876351028246543, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 37.136501345834354, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 37.136501345834354, "required_final_county_share_points": 37.136501345834354, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 37.136501345834354, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 56317.25645704531, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 37.136501345834354, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 37.136501345834354, "required_final_county_share_points": 37.136501345834354, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 37.136501345834354, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 37.749746513256014, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 37.749746513256014, "required_final_county_share_points": 37.749746513256014, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.159018308558073, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999906, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 38.359105897231565, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 38.359105897231565, "required_final_county_share_points": 38.359105897231565, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.213613509684069, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.999999999999993, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -32.260150317587815, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "WELL BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.0008040878527461583, "criticality_score": 2.4925111781260984e-05, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 2758.5991980698136, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 5142.470988192653, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 6388.563014120396, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } } } }, { "cid": "26119", "county": "26119", "fips": null, "reporting": 0.0, "current_votes": 0, "current_candidate_votes": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 0, "Haley Stevens": 0, "Mallory McMorrow": 0 }, "current_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": null, "Haley Stevens": null, "Mallory McMorrow": null }, "estimated_remaining_votes": 970.8193904974759, "estimated_final_votes": 970.8193904974759, "turnout_disagreement_votes": 0.0, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 48.27100217759222, "Haley Stevens": 47.573041127080906, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.155956695326873 }, "remaining_sources": [ { "model": "market", "remaining_votes": 970.8193904974759, "weight": 0.1780093144963334 } ], "share_sources": [ { "model": "v0", "weight": 0.03630604611298715, "source": "statewide raw" }, { "model": "v3", "weight": 0.06301781787712588, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "market", "weight": 0.18729675699179427, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "histgeo", "weight": 0.02760802595386354, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "latent", "weight": 0.03563066882913146, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "batchbias", "weight": 0.020512372723621893, "source": "statewide fallback" } ], "candidate_benchmarks": { "Abdul El-Sayed": { "opponent": "Haley Stevens", "expected_remaining_share_points": 48.27100217759222, "expected_final_county_share_points": 48.27100217759222, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 47.04081622790371, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 47.04081622790371, "required_final_county_share_points": 47.04081622790371, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 47.04081622790371, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": -2329.9063710877417, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": false }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 47.04081622790371, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 47.04081622790371, "required_final_county_share_points": 47.04081622790371, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 47.04081622790371, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 47.694883782522766, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 47.694883782522766, "required_final_county_share_points": 47.694883782522766, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.024044322225107804, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999973, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.34910264295541, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.34910264295541, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.34910264295541, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.003259695682198218, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.9999999999999996, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": 1.2301859496885115, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "ABOVE", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.0007907871514225376, "criticality_score": 0.0006428192027577363, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -2751.768284187304, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -327.8007911724904, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 939.2499691362993, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Haley Stevens": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 47.573041127080906, "expected_final_county_share_points": 47.573041127080906, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.8032270767694, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.8032270767694, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.8032270767694, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 48.8032270767694, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 2425.750414392415, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.8032270767694, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.8032270767694, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.8032270767694, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 48.8032270767694, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 49.45713689360831, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 49.45713689360831, "required_final_county_share_points": 49.45713689360831, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.07865391656842785, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.999999999999999, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 50.11088253540306, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 50.11088253540306, "required_final_county_share_points": 50.11088253540306, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.10597932088248406, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -1.2301859496884973, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.0007907871514225376, "criticality_score": 0.0006428192027577437, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 2847.6123274919773, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 5271.5798205067895, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 6538.63058081558, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Mallory McMorrow": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 4.155956695326873, "expected_final_county_share_points": 4.155956695326873, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 34.480137780876035, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 34.480137780876035, "required_final_county_share_points": 34.480137780876035, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 34.480137780876035, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 57263.68618681971, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 34.480137780876035, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 34.480137780876035, "required_final_county_share_points": 34.480137780876035, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 34.480137780876035, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 35.10919125118339, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 35.10919125118339, "required_final_county_share_points": 35.10919125118339, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.159018308558073, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999906, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 35.73638403953086, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 35.73638403953086, "required_final_county_share_points": 35.73638403953086, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.213613509684069, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.999999999999993, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -30.324181085549164, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "WELL BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.0007907871514225376, "criticality_score": 2.6077774340932928e-05, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 2804.195243060223, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 5228.162736075035, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 6495.213496383826, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } } } }, { "cid": "fips:26119", "county": "Montmorency", "fips": "26119", "reporting": 0.0, "current_votes": 0, "current_candidate_votes": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 0, "Haley Stevens": 0, "Mallory McMorrow": 0 }, "current_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": null, "Haley Stevens": null, "Mallory McMorrow": null }, "estimated_remaining_votes": 970.8193904974759, "estimated_final_votes": 970.8193904974759, "turnout_disagreement_votes": 0.0, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 49.03949384088323, "Haley Stevens": 47.07407323538083, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.8864329237359323 }, "remaining_sources": [ { "model": "v3", "remaining_votes": 970.8193904974759, "weight": 0.1342208488636769 }, { "model": "histgeo", "remaining_votes": 970.8193904974759, "weight": 0.05994207394479305 }, { "model": "latent", "remaining_votes": 970.8193904974759, "weight": 0.07672787409296966 }, { "model": "batchbias", "remaining_votes": 970.8193904974759, "weight": 0.045123489075924846 } ], "share_sources": [ { "model": "v0", "weight": 0.03630604611298715, "source": "statewide raw" }, { "model": "v3", "weight": 0.15004242351696637, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "market", "weight": 0.0786646379365536, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "histgeo", "weight": 0.06573339512824654, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "latent", "weight": 0.08483492578364633, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "batchbias", "weight": 0.04883898267529022, "source": "county remaining" } ], "candidate_benchmarks": { "Abdul El-Sayed": { "opponent": "Haley Stevens", "expected_remaining_share_points": 49.03949384088323, "expected_final_county_share_points": 49.03949384088323, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 47.80588195962072, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 47.80588195962072, "required_final_county_share_points": 47.80588195962072, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 47.80588195962072, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": -2329.1378794244542, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": false }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 47.80588195962072, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 47.80588195962072, "required_final_county_share_points": 47.80588195962072, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 47.80588195962072, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.461874862415456, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.461874862415456, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.461874862415456, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.024044322225107804, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999973, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 49.117783654746304, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 49.117783654746304, "required_final_county_share_points": 49.117783654746304, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.003259695682198218, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.9999999999999996, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": 1.2336118812625116, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "ABOVE", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.0007907871514225376, "criticality_score": 0.0006410339941061728, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -2750.999792524013, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -327.0322995091994, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 940.0184607995903, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Haley Stevens": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 47.07407323538083, "expected_final_county_share_points": 47.07407323538084, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.30768511664335, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.30768511664335, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.30768511664335, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 48.30768511664335, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 2425.251446500719, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.30768511664335, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.30768511664335, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.30768511664335, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 48.30768511664335, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.963755639034986, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.963755639034986, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.963755639034986, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.07865391656842785, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.999999999999999, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 49.619897275509025, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 49.619897275509025, "required_final_county_share_points": 49.619897275509025, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.10597932088248406, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -1.2336118812625188, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.0007907871514225376, "criticality_score": 0.0006410339941061691, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 2847.113359600277, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 5271.0808526150895, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 6538.13161292388, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Mallory McMorrow": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 3.8864329237359323, "expected_final_county_share_points": 3.886432923735932, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 33.80865440728037, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 33.80865440728037, "required_final_county_share_points": 33.80865440728037, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 33.80865440728037, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 57263.41666304812, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 33.80865440728037, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 33.80865440728037, "required_final_county_share_points": 33.80865440728037, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 33.80865440728037, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 34.460145424130964, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 34.460145424130964, "required_final_county_share_points": 34.460145424130964, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.159018308558073, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999906, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 35.11101780671713, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 35.11101780671713, "required_final_county_share_points": 35.11101780671712, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.213613509684069, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.999999999999993, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -29.92222148354444, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "WELL BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.0007907871514225376, "criticality_score": 2.6428089634234766e-05, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 2803.925719288632, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 5227.893212303445, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 6494.9439726122355, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } } } }, { "cid": "fips:26149", "county": "St. Joseph", "fips": "26149", "reporting": 73.25, "current_votes": 4494, "current_candidate_votes": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 2060, "Haley Stevens": 2177, "Mallory McMorrow": 257 }, "current_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 45.83889630618603, "Haley Stevens": 48.442367601246104, "Mallory McMorrow": 5.718736092567869 }, "estimated_remaining_votes": 902.6344709897611, "estimated_final_votes": 5396.634470989761, "turnout_disagreement_votes": 470.89502924808846, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 46.86851449995504, "Haley Stevens": 47.973021443942194, "Mallory McMorrow": 5.158464056102759 }, "remaining_sources": [ { "model": "v3", "remaining_votes": 431.73944174167264, "weight": 0.1342208488636769 }, { "model": "histgeo", "remaining_votes": 431.73944174167264, "weight": 0.05994207394479305 }, { "model": "latent", "remaining_votes": 431.73944174167264, "weight": 0.07672787409296966 }, { "model": "batchbias", "remaining_votes": 431.73944174167264, "weight": 0.045123489075924846 } ], "share_sources": [ { "model": "v0", "weight": 0.03630604611298715, "source": "statewide raw" }, { "model": "v1", "weight": 0.14599140026529184, "source": "county live" }, { "model": "v3", "weight": 0.15004242351696637, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "market", "weight": 0.0786646379365536, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "histgeo", "weight": 0.06573339512824654, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "latent", "weight": 0.08483492578364633, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "batchbias", "weight": 0.04883898267529022, "source": "county remaining" } ], "candidate_benchmarks": { "Abdul El-Sayed": { "opponent": "Haley Stevens", "expected_remaining_share_points": 46.86851449995504, "expected_final_county_share_points": 46.011108984041094, "current_county_share_points": 45.83889630618603, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 45.65188775333666, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 45.65188775333666, "required_final_county_share_points": 45.807617484713276, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 45.65188775333666, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": -2510.9561445524573, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": false }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 45.65188775333666, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 45.65188775333666, "required_final_county_share_points": 45.807617484713276, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 45.65188775333666, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 46.298598956611485, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 46.298598956611485, "required_final_county_share_points": 45.91578560838167, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.024044322225107804, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999973, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 46.9457940523936, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 46.9457940523936, "required_final_county_share_points": 46.024034667318084, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.003259695682198218, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.9999999999999996, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": 1.216626746618381, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "ABOVE", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.000735246688597778, "criticality_score": 0.0006043321755348542, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -2964.6854652378643, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -357.6117052761423, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1005.1519453337578, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Haley Stevens": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 47.973021443942194, "expected_final_county_share_points": 48.363865337902816, "current_county_share_points": 48.442367601246104, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 49.18964819056056, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 49.18964819056056, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.567356837230626, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 49.18964819056056, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 2605.797680496355, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 49.18964819056056, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 49.18964819056056, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.567356837230626, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 49.18964819056056, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 49.83586963726213, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 49.83586963726213, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.67544304481451, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.07865391656842785, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.999999999999999, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 50.481595470526784, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 50.481595470526784, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.783446356702036, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.10597932088248406, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -1.216626746618367, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.000735246688597778, "criticality_score": 0.0006043321755348612, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 3059.5270011817615, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 5666.6007611434825, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 7029.364411753383, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Mallory McMorrow": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 5.158464056102759, "expected_final_county_share_points": 5.625025678056083, "current_county_share_points": 5.718736092567869, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 36.97306363539346, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 36.97306363539346, "required_final_county_share_points": 10.946296632273098, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 36.97306363539346, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 61590.067998063605, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 36.97306363539346, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 36.97306363539346, "required_final_county_share_points": 10.946296632273098, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 36.97306363539346, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 37.54161229809277, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 37.54161229809277, "required_final_county_share_points": 11.041391385150336, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.159018308558073, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999906, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 38.10530119734073, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 38.10530119734073, "required_final_county_share_points": 11.13567329994568, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.213613509684069, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.999999999999993, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -31.8145995792907, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "WELL BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.000735246688597778, "criticality_score": 2.3110354941458302e-05, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 3016.712443793922, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 5623.786203755643, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 6986.549854365544, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } } } }, { "cid": "fips:26069", "county": "Iosco", "fips": "26069", "reporting": 68.61, "current_votes": 3460, "current_candidate_votes": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 1338, "Haley Stevens": 1934, "Mallory McMorrow": 188 }, "current_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 38.67052023121387, "Haley Stevens": 55.895953757225435, "Mallory McMorrow": 5.433526011560693 }, "estimated_remaining_votes": 870.6481562454451, "estimated_final_votes": 4330.648156245445, "turnout_disagreement_votes": 257.3568560303338, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 41.80859004391156, "Haley Stevens": 53.24047229596726, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.950937660121192 }, "remaining_sources": [ { "model": "v3", "remaining_votes": 613.2913002151113, "weight": 0.1342208488636769 }, { "model": "histgeo", "remaining_votes": 613.2913002151113, "weight": 0.05994207394479305 }, { "model": "latent", "remaining_votes": 613.2913002151113, "weight": 0.07672787409296966 }, { "model": "batchbias", "remaining_votes": 613.2913002151113, "weight": 0.045123489075924846 } ], "share_sources": [ { "model": "v0", "weight": 0.03630604611298715, "source": "statewide raw" }, { "model": "v1", "weight": 0.14599140026529184, "source": "county live" }, { "model": "v3", "weight": 0.15004242351696637, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "market", "weight": 0.0786646379365536, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "histgeo", "weight": 0.06573339512824654, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "latent", "weight": 0.08483492578364633, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "batchbias", "weight": 0.04883898267529022, "source": "county remaining" } ], "candidate_benchmarks": { "Abdul El-Sayed": { "opponent": "Haley Stevens", "expected_remaining_share_points": 41.80859004391156, "expected_final_county_share_points": 39.30140840268875, "current_county_share_points": 38.67052023121387, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 40.61011657485963, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 40.61011657485963, "required_final_county_share_points": 39.06046324194317, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 40.61011657485963, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": -2609.9867321499078, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": false }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 40.61011657485963, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 40.61011657485963, "required_final_county_share_points": 39.06046324194317, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 40.61011657485963, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 41.246347482975054, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 41.246347482975054, "required_final_county_share_points": 39.1883732561285, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.024044322225107804, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999973, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 41.88494221639375, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 41.88494221639375, "required_final_county_share_points": 39.31675850174982, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.003259695682198218, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.9999999999999996, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": 1.198473469051926, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "ABOVE", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.000709192031090164, "criticality_score": 0.0005917461248860044, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -3080.3853913689763, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -377.5316297503344, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1035.2979249079892, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Haley Stevens": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 53.24047229596726, "expected_final_county_share_points": 55.36208678055726, "current_county_share_points": 55.895953757225435, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 54.43894576501918, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 54.43894576501918, "required_final_county_share_points": 55.60303194130285, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 54.43894576501918, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 2705.0357944897864, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 54.43894576501918, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 54.43894576501918, "required_final_county_share_points": 55.60303194130285, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 54.43894576501918, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 55.07281967362555, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 55.07281967362555, "required_final_county_share_points": 55.73046809633298, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.07865391656842785, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.999999999999999, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 55.70434339349869, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 55.70434339349869, "required_final_county_share_points": 55.8574317614693, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.10597932088248406, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -1.198473469051919, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.000709192031090164, "criticality_score": 0.0005917461248860079, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 3175.434453708855, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 5878.288215327496, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 7291.11776998582, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Mallory McMorrow": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 4.950937660121192, "expected_final_county_share_points": 5.336504816754003, "current_county_share_points": 5.433526011560693, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 33.92239974415517, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 33.92239974415517, "required_final_county_share_points": 11.161025566799761, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 33.92239974415517, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 63852.39819798616, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 33.92239974415517, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 33.92239974415517, "required_final_county_share_points": 11.161025566799761, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 33.92239974415517, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 34.41694257620935, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 34.41694257620935, "required_final_county_share_points": 11.260450130832151, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.159018308558073, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999906, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 34.90649072564821, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 34.90649072564821, "required_final_county_share_points": 11.358870546974163, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.213613509684069, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.999999999999993, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -28.97146208403398, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "WELL BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.000709192031090164, "criticality_score": 2.447898656385022e-05, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 3127.144919073009, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 5829.9986806916495, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 7242.8282353499735, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } } } }, { "cid": "26137", "county": "26137", "fips": null, "reporting": 0.0, "current_votes": 0, "current_candidate_votes": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 0, "Haley Stevens": 0, "Mallory McMorrow": 0 }, "current_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": null, "Haley Stevens": null, "Mallory McMorrow": null }, "estimated_remaining_votes": 852.2585725086306, "estimated_final_votes": 852.2585725086306, "turnout_disagreement_votes": 0.0, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 47.73334889983432, "Haley Stevens": 47.983933728439226, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.282717371726454 }, "remaining_sources": [ { "model": "market", "remaining_votes": 852.2585725086306, "weight": 0.1780093144963334 } ], "share_sources": [ { "model": "v0", "weight": 0.03630604611298715, "source": "statewide raw" }, { "model": "v3", "weight": 0.06301781787712588, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "market", "weight": 0.18729675699179427, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "histgeo", "weight": 0.02760802595386354, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "latent", "weight": 0.03563066882913146, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "batchbias", "weight": 0.020512372723621893, "source": "statewide fallback" } ], "candidate_benchmarks": { "Abdul El-Sayed": { "opponent": "Haley Stevens", "expected_remaining_share_points": 47.73334889983432, "expected_final_county_share_points": 47.73334889983432, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 46.50504540834954, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 46.50504540834954, "required_final_county_share_points": 46.50504540834954, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 46.50504540834954, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": -2661.2810071686804, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": false }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 46.50504540834954, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 46.50504540834954, "required_final_county_share_points": 46.50504540834954, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 46.50504540834954, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 47.15803437089912, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 47.15803437089912, "required_final_county_share_points": 47.158034370899124, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.024044322225107804, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999973, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 47.81135093220695, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 47.81135093220695, "required_final_county_share_points": 47.81135093220695, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.003259695682198218, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.9999999999999996, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": 1.2283034914847804, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "ABOVE", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.0006942126778948905, "criticality_score": 0.0005651800900245934, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -3141.8296793209565, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -380.65517188529714, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1062.6596700312812, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Haley Stevens": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 47.983933728439226, "expected_final_county_share_points": 47.98393372843923, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 49.212237219924006, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 49.212237219924006, "required_final_county_share_points": 49.212237219924006, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 49.212237219924006, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 2756.9982897969544, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 49.212237219924006, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 49.212237219924006, "required_final_county_share_points": 49.212237219924006, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 49.212237219924006, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 49.86489235892511, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 49.86489235892511, "required_final_county_share_points": 49.86489235892511, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.07865391656842785, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.999999999999999, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 50.51720745106789, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 50.51720745106789, "required_final_county_share_points": 50.51720745106789, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.10597932088248406, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -1.2283034914847804, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.0006942126778948905, "criticality_score": 0.0005651800900245934, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 3237.54696194923, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 5998.721469384888, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 7442.036311301467, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Mallory McMorrow": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 4.282717371726454, "expected_final_county_share_points": 4.282717371726454, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 34.689732409927664, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 34.689732409927664, "required_final_county_share_points": 34.689732409927664, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 34.689732409927664, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 65229.39635225773, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 34.689732409927664, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 34.689732409927664, "required_final_county_share_points": 34.689732409927664, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 34.689732409927664, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 35.3052526910459, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 35.3052526910459, "required_final_county_share_points": 35.305252691045894, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.159018308558073, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999906, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 35.91835038075575, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 35.91835038075575, "required_final_county_share_points": 35.91835038075574, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.213613509684069, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.999999999999993, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -30.40701503820121, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "WELL BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.0006942126778948905, "criticality_score": 2.2830674994659328e-05, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 3193.8457455925172, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 5955.020253028176, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 7398.335094944755, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } } } }, { "cid": "fips:26137", "county": "Otsego", "fips": "26137", "reporting": 70.99, "current_votes": 1730, "current_candidate_votes": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 797, "Haley Stevens": 849, "Mallory McMorrow": 84 }, "current_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 46.06936416184971, "Haley Stevens": 49.07514450867052, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.855491329479769 }, "estimated_remaining_votes": 852.2585725086304, "estimated_final_votes": 2582.2585725086306, "turnout_disagreement_votes": 1.1368683772161603e-13, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 47.04144657261356, "Haley Stevens": 48.41599964874527, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.542553778641175 }, "remaining_sources": [ { "model": "v3", "remaining_votes": 852.2585725086306, "weight": 0.1342208488636769 }, { "model": "histgeo", "remaining_votes": 852.2585725086306, "weight": 0.05994207394479305 }, { "model": "latent", "remaining_votes": 852.2585725086306, "weight": 0.07672787409296966 }, { "model": "batchbias", "remaining_votes": 852.2585725086306, "weight": 0.045123489075924846 } ], "share_sources": [ { "model": "v0", "weight": 0.03630604611298715, "source": "statewide raw" }, { "model": "v1", "weight": 0.14599140026529184, "source": "county live" }, { "model": "v3", "weight": 0.15004242351696637, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "market", "weight": 0.0786646379365536, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "histgeo", "weight": 0.06573339512824654, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "latent", "weight": 0.08483492578364633, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "batchbias", "weight": 0.04883898267529022, "source": "county remaining" } ], "candidate_benchmarks": { "Abdul El-Sayed": { "opponent": "Haley Stevens", "expected_remaining_share_points": 47.04144657261356, "expected_final_county_share_points": 46.39019398756058, "current_county_share_points": 46.06936416184971, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 45.81709328779613, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 45.81709328779613, "required_final_county_share_points": 45.986103710206585, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 45.81709328779613, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": -2661.9729094959057, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": false }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 45.81709328779613, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 45.81709328779613, "required_final_county_share_points": 45.986103710206585, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 45.81709328779613, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 46.46789007478823, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 46.46789007478823, "required_final_county_share_points": 46.20089519026206, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.024044322225107804, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999973, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 47.119222755564124, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 47.119222755564124, "required_final_county_share_points": 46.41586353876754, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.003259695682198218, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.9999999999999996, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": 1.2243532848174254, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "ABOVE", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.0006942126778948904, "criticality_score": 0.0005670035654769455, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -3142.5215816481777, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -381.34707421251795, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1061.9677677040604, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Haley Stevens": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 48.41599964874527, "expected_final_county_share_points": 48.85759779844678, "current_county_share_points": 49.07514450867052, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 49.6403529335627, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 49.6403529335627, "required_final_county_share_points": 49.261688075800784, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 49.6403529335627, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 2757.4303557172643, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 49.6403529335627, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 49.6403529335627, "required_final_county_share_points": 49.261688075800784, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 49.6403529335627, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 50.29060804156812, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 50.29060804156812, "required_final_county_share_points": 49.476300778035615, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.07865391656842785, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.999999999999999, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 50.94031569429285, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 50.94031569429285, "required_final_county_share_points": 49.69073279601946, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.10597932088248406, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -1.2243532848174326, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.0006942126778948904, "criticality_score": 0.0005670035654769422, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 3237.9790278695364, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 5999.153535305195, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 7442.468377221774, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Mallory McMorrow": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 4.542553778641175, "expected_final_county_share_points": 4.752208213992636, "current_county_share_points": 4.855491329479769, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 35.23327963833058, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 35.23327963833058, "required_final_county_share_points": 14.88149367320285, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 35.23327963833058, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 65229.65618866465, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 35.23327963833058, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 35.23327963833058, "required_final_county_share_points": 14.88149367320285, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 35.23327963833058, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 35.827673560742, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 35.827673560742, "required_final_county_share_points": 15.077669734428985, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.159018308558073, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999906, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 36.41871480028105, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 36.41871480028105, "required_final_county_share_points": 15.27273926327711, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.213613509684069, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.999999999999993, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -30.690725859689405, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "WELL BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.0006942126778948904, "criticality_score": 2.2619623956392018e-05, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 3194.1055819994326, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 5955.280089435091, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 7398.59493135167, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } } } }, { "cid": "26131", "county": "26131", "fips": null, "reporting": 0.0, "current_votes": 0, "current_candidate_votes": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 0, "Haley Stevens": 0, "Mallory McMorrow": 0 }, "current_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": null, "Haley Stevens": null, "Mallory McMorrow": null }, "estimated_remaining_votes": 850.4069201533449, "estimated_final_votes": 850.4069201533449, "turnout_disagreement_votes": 0.0, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 48.931518107864335, "Haley Stevens": 45.89858485821901, "Mallory McMorrow": 5.169897033916645 }, "remaining_sources": [ { "model": "market", "remaining_votes": 850.4069201533449, "weight": 0.1780093144963334 } ], "share_sources": [ { "model": "v0", "weight": 0.03630604611298715, "source": "statewide raw" }, { "model": "v3", "weight": 0.06301781787712588, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "market", "weight": 0.18729675699179427, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "histgeo", "weight": 0.02760802595386354, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "latent", "weight": 0.03563066882913146, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "batchbias", "weight": 0.020512372723621893, "source": "statewide fallback" } ], "candidate_benchmarks": { "Abdul El-Sayed": { "opponent": "Haley Stevens", "expected_remaining_share_points": 48.931518107864335, "expected_final_county_share_points": 48.931518107864335, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 47.7147553718776, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 47.7147553718776, "required_final_county_share_points": 47.7147553718776, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 47.7147553718776, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": -2665.9813704091066, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": false }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 47.7147553718776, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 47.7147553718776, "required_final_county_share_points": 47.7147553718776, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 47.7147553718776, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.3618782205621, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.3618782205621, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.3618782205621, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.024044322225107804, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999973, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 49.008714285760206, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 49.008714285760206, "required_final_county_share_points": 49.008714285760206, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.003259695682198218, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.9999999999999996, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": 1.216762735986734, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "ABOVE", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.0006927044026113584, "criticality_score": 0.0005693011317030593, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -3147.576375863163, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -380.3897639174344, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1066.0677115585834, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Haley Stevens": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 45.89858485821901, "expected_final_county_share_points": 45.898584858219, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 47.115347594205744, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 47.115347594205744, "required_final_county_share_points": 47.11534759420575, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 47.115347594205744, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 2760.81147337519, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 47.115347594205744, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 47.115347594205744, "required_final_county_share_points": 47.11534759420575, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 47.115347594205744, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 47.762750995046424, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 47.762750995046424, "required_final_county_share_points": 47.762750995046424, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.07865391656842785, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.999999999999999, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.41042869431758, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.41042869431758, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.41042869431758, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.10597932088248406, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -1.216762735986734, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.0006927044026113584, "criticality_score": 0.0005693011317030593, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 3242.406478829246, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 6009.5930907749735, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 7456.050566250991, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Mallory McMorrow": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 5.169897033916645, "expected_final_county_share_points": 5.169897033916644, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 37.98881102713791, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 37.98881102713791, "required_final_county_share_points": 37.98881102713791, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 37.98881102713791, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 65372.30287868632, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 37.98881102713791, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 37.98881102713791, "required_final_county_share_points": 37.98881102713791, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 37.98881102713791, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 38.590358342325835, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 38.590358342325835, "required_final_county_share_points": 38.590358342325835, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.159018308558073, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999906, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 39.18729919802669, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 39.18729919802669, "required_final_county_share_points": 39.1872991980267, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.213613509684069, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.999999999999993, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -32.818913993221265, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "WELL BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.0006927044026113584, "criticality_score": 2.1106865472588037e-05, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 3201.6777910049436, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 5968.864402950671, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 7415.321878426689, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } } } }, { "cid": "fips:26131", "county": "Ontonagon", "fips": "26131", "reporting": 15.380000000000003, "current_votes": 134, "current_candidate_votes": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 65, "Haley Stevens": 59, "Mallory McMorrow": 10 }, "current_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 48.507462686567166, "Haley Stevens": 44.02985074626866, "Mallory McMorrow": 7.462686567164178 }, "estimated_remaining_votes": 850.4069201533448, "estimated_final_votes": 984.4069201533448, "turnout_disagreement_votes": 1.1368683772161603e-13, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 48.87402045235217, "Haley Stevens": 45.59675421851257, "Mallory McMorrow": 5.5292253291352775 }, "remaining_sources": [ { "model": "v3", "remaining_votes": 850.4069201533449, "weight": 0.1342208488636769 }, { "model": "histgeo", "remaining_votes": 850.4069201533449, "weight": 0.05994207394479305 }, { "model": "latent", "remaining_votes": 850.4069201533449, "weight": 0.07672787409296966 }, { "model": "batchbias", "remaining_votes": 850.4069201533449, "weight": 0.045123489075924846 } ], "share_sources": [ { "model": "v0", "weight": 0.03630604611298715, "source": "statewide raw" }, { "model": "v1", "weight": 0.14599140026529184, "source": "county live" }, { "model": "v3", "weight": 0.15004242351696637, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "market", "weight": 0.0786646379365536, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "histgeo", "weight": 0.06573339512824654, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "latent", "weight": 0.08483492578364633, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "batchbias", "weight": 0.04883898267529022, "source": "county remaining" } ], "candidate_benchmarks": { "Abdul El-Sayed": { "opponent": "Haley Stevens", "expected_remaining_share_points": 48.87402045235217, "expected_final_county_share_points": 48.82412366718172, "current_county_share_points": 48.507462686567166, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 47.662003016444935, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 47.662003016444935, "required_final_county_share_points": 47.777089159661735, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 47.662003016444935, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": -2666.038868064616, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": false }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 47.662003016444935, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 47.662003016444935, "required_final_county_share_points": 47.777089159661735, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 47.662003016444935, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.30662311888375, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.30662311888375, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.33396191701551, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.024044322225107804, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999973, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.95090988146713, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.95090988146713, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.89054670959169, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.003259695682198218, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.9999999999999996, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": 1.212017435907235, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "ABOVE", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.0006927044026113582, "criticality_score": 0.0005715300639159915, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -3147.6338735186755, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -380.4472615729466, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1066.0102139030714, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Haley Stevens": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 45.59675421851257, "expected_final_county_share_points": 45.38346329076495, "current_county_share_points": 44.02985074626866, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 46.80877165441981, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 46.80877165441981, "required_final_county_share_points": 46.43049779828494, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 46.80877165441981, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 2760.5096427354806, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 46.80877165441981, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 46.80877165441981, "required_final_county_share_points": 46.43049779828494, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 46.80877165441981, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 47.45371895750576, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 47.45371895750576, "required_final_county_share_points": 46.987653216892824, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.07865391656842785, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.999999999999999, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.09898729792121, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.09898729792121, "required_final_county_share_points": 47.545085972403804, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.10597932088248406, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -1.212017435907235, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.0006927044026113582, "criticality_score": 0.0005715300639159915, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 3242.10464818954, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 6009.291260135268, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 7455.748735611287, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Mallory McMorrow": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 5.5292253291352775, "expected_final_county_share_points": 5.79241304205334, "current_county_share_points": 7.462686567164178, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 38.9677051107853, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 38.9677051107853, "required_final_county_share_points": 34.679161015435376, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 38.9677051107853, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 65372.66220698154, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 38.9677051107853, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 38.9677051107853, "required_final_county_share_points": 34.679161015435376, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 38.9677051107853, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 39.55510443249594, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 39.55510443249594, "required_final_county_share_points": 35.18660203179708, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.159018308558073, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999906, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 40.13713644890032, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 40.13713644890032, "required_final_county_share_points": 35.68940635424536, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.213613509684069, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.999999999999993, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -33.438479781650024, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "WELL BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.0006927044026113582, "criticality_score": 2.0715786337616115e-05, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 3202.037119300163, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 5969.223731245891, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 7415.68120672191, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } } } }, { "cid": "26033", "county": "26033", "fips": null, "reporting": 0.0, "current_votes": 0, "current_candidate_votes": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 0, "Haley Stevens": 0, "Mallory McMorrow": 0 }, "current_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": null, "Haley Stevens": null, "Mallory McMorrow": null }, "estimated_remaining_votes": 767.4548380501775, "estimated_final_votes": 767.4548380501775, "turnout_disagreement_votes": 1.1368683772161603e-13, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 48.358024573335435, "Haley Stevens": 46.84461290915929, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.797362517505271 }, "remaining_sources": [ { "model": "market", "remaining_votes": 767.4548380501774, "weight": 0.1780093144963334 } ], "share_sources": [ { "model": "v0", "weight": 0.03630604611298715, "source": "statewide raw" }, { "model": "v3", "weight": 0.06301781787712588, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "market", "weight": 0.18729675699179427, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "histgeo", "weight": 0.02760802595386354, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "latent", "weight": 0.03563066882913146, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "batchbias", "weight": 0.020512372723621893, "source": "statewide fallback" } ], "candidate_benchmarks": { "Abdul El-Sayed": { "opponent": "Haley Stevens", "expected_remaining_share_points": 48.358024573335435, "expected_final_county_share_points": 48.35802457333544, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 47.136045017659214, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 47.136045017659214, "required_final_county_share_points": 47.136045017659214, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 47.136045017659214, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": -2960.0023290783697, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": false }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 47.136045017659214, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 47.136045017659214, "required_final_county_share_points": 47.136045017659214, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 47.136045017659214, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 47.785816677498715, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 47.785816677498715, "required_final_county_share_points": 47.785816677498715, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.024044322225107804, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999973, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.43558579599191, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.43558579599191, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.43558579599191, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.003259695682198218, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.9999999999999996, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": 1.2219795556762207, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "ABOVE", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.0006251352529291315, "criticality_score": 0.0005115758688640198, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -3493.6516137580165, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -427.3674137221609, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1175.4336709351724, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Haley Stevens": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 46.84461290915929, "expected_final_county_share_points": 46.84461290915929, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.0665924648355, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.0665924648355, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.0665924648355, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 48.0665924648355, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 3055.2049665608642, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.0665924648355, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.0665924648355, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.0665924648355, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 48.0665924648355, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.71636022190207, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.71636022190207, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.71636022190207, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.07865391656842785, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.999999999999999, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 49.36611762077301, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 49.36611762077301, "required_final_county_share_points": 49.36611762077302, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.10597932088248406, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -1.2219795556762136, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.0006251352529291315, "criticality_score": 0.0005115758688640227, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 3588.8542512405115, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 6655.138451276366, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 8257.9395359337, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Mallory McMorrow": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 4.797362517505271, "expected_final_county_share_points": 4.797362517505271, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 36.61545588918153, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 36.61545588918153, "required_final_county_share_points": 36.615455889181526, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 36.61545588918153, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 72437.2839169207, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 36.61545588918153, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 36.61545588918153, "required_final_county_share_points": 36.615455889181526, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 36.61545588918153, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 37.22165594786729, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 37.22165594786729, "required_final_county_share_points": 37.22165594786729, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.159018308558073, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999906, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 37.82406516876479, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 37.82406516876479, "required_final_county_share_points": 37.82406516876479, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.213613509684069, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.999999999999993, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -31.818093371676262, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "WELL BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.0006251352529291315, "criticality_score": 1.9647162563348708e-05, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 3546.8070008488576, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 6613.091200884713, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 8215.892285542046, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } } } }, { "cid": "fips:26033", "county": "Chippewa", "fips": "26033", "reporting": 77.91, "current_votes": 2769, "current_candidate_votes": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 1316, "Haley Stevens": 1287, "Mallory McMorrow": 166 }, "current_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 47.52618273745035, "Haley Stevens": 46.478873239436616, "Mallory McMorrow": 5.994944023113037 }, "estimated_remaining_votes": 767.4548380501773, "estimated_final_votes": 3536.4548380501774, "turnout_disagreement_votes": 1.1368683772161603e-13, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 48.06033288096654, "Haley Stevens": 46.57252147150088, "Mallory McMorrow": 5.3671456475325705 }, "remaining_sources": [ { "model": "v3", "remaining_votes": 767.4548380501774, "weight": 0.1342208488636769 }, { "model": "histgeo", "remaining_votes": 767.4548380501774, "weight": 0.05994207394479305 }, { "model": "latent", "remaining_votes": 767.4548380501774, "weight": 0.07672787409296966 }, { "model": "batchbias", "remaining_votes": 767.4548380501774, "weight": 0.045123489075924846 } ], "share_sources": [ { "model": "v0", "weight": 0.03630604611298715, "source": "statewide raw" }, { "model": "v1", "weight": 0.14599140026529184, "source": "county live" }, { "model": "v3", "weight": 0.15004242351696637, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "market", "weight": 0.0786646379365536, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "histgeo", "weight": 0.06573339512824654, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "latent", "weight": 0.08483492578364633, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "batchbias", "weight": 0.04883898267529022, "source": "county remaining" } ], "candidate_benchmarks": { "Abdul El-Sayed": { "opponent": "Haley Stevens", "expected_remaining_share_points": 48.06033288096654, "expected_final_county_share_points": 47.64209998527605, "current_county_share_points": 47.52618273745035, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 46.84566555000326, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 46.84566555000326, "required_final_county_share_points": 47.378502014296956, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 46.84566555000326, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": -2960.3000207707323, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": false }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 46.84566555000326, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 46.84566555000326, "required_final_county_share_points": 47.378502014296956, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 46.84566555000326, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 47.49154767234932, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 47.49154767234932, "required_final_county_share_points": 47.51866649604611, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.024044322225107804, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999973, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.13743035170098, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.13743035170098, "required_final_county_share_points": 47.65883109867243, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.003259695682198218, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.9999999999999996, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": 1.2146673309632803, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "ABOVE", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.0006251352529291313, "criticality_score": 0.0005146555250097768, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -3493.949305450387, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -427.66510541453, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1175.135979242804, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Haley Stevens": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 46.57252147150088, "expected_final_county_share_points": 46.49919607461021, "current_county_share_points": 46.478873239436616, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 47.787188802464165, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 47.787188802464165, "required_final_county_share_points": 46.762794045589324, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 47.787188802464165, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 3054.932875123199, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 47.787188802464165, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 47.787188802464165, "required_final_county_share_points": 46.762794045589324, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 47.787188802464165, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.43306396229175, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.43306396229175, "required_final_county_share_points": 46.90295701638507, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.07865391656842785, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.999999999999999, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 49.07892574297455, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 49.07892574297455, "required_final_county_share_points": 47.04311708373942, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.10597932088248406, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -1.2146673309632874, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.0006251352529291313, "criticality_score": 0.0005146555250097738, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 3588.582159802854, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 6654.866359838711, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 8257.667444496044, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Mallory McMorrow": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 5.3671456475325705, "expected_final_county_share_points": 5.858703940113726, "current_county_share_points": 5.994944023113037, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 38.12764729820396, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 38.12764729820396, "required_final_county_share_points": 12.968141679355638, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 38.12764729820396, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 72437.85370005073, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 38.12764729820396, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 38.12764729820396, "required_final_county_share_points": 12.968141679355638, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 38.12764729820396, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 38.70781627578959, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 38.70781627578959, "required_final_county_share_points": 13.09404558853159, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.159018308558073, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999906, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 39.28284468911493, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 39.28284468911493, "required_final_county_share_points": 13.218833931104108, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.213613509684069, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.999999999999993, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -32.76050165067139, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "WELL BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.0006251352529291313, "criticality_score": 1.9081980477436307e-05, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 3547.376783978886, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 6613.660984014742, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 8216.462068672077, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } } } }, { "cid": "26069", "county": "26069", "fips": null, "reporting": 0.0, "current_votes": 0, "current_candidate_votes": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 0, "Haley Stevens": 0, "Mallory McMorrow": 0 }, "current_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": null, "Haley Stevens": null, "Mallory McMorrow": null }, "estimated_remaining_votes": 613.2913002151113, "estimated_final_votes": 613.2913002151113, "turnout_disagreement_votes": 0.0, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 44.57372764172937, "Haley Stevens": 50.919833119769066, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.506439238501557 }, "remaining_sources": [ { "model": "market", "remaining_votes": 613.2913002151113, "weight": 0.1780093144963334 } ], "share_sources": [ { "model": "v0", "weight": 0.03630604611298715, "source": "statewide raw" }, { "model": "v3", "weight": 0.06301781787712588, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "market", "weight": 0.18729675699179427, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "histgeo", "weight": 0.02760802595386354, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "latent", "weight": 0.03563066882913146, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "batchbias", "weight": 0.020512372723621893, "source": "statewide fallback" } ], "candidate_benchmarks": { "Abdul El-Sayed": { "opponent": "Haley Stevens", "expected_remaining_share_points": 44.57372764172937, "expected_final_county_share_points": 44.57372764172938, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 43.35569435846791, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 43.35569435846791, "required_final_county_share_points": 43.35569435846791, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 43.35569435846791, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": -3720.0006388926363, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": false }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 43.35569435846791, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 43.35569435846791, "required_final_county_share_points": 43.35569435846791, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 43.35569435846791, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 44.00272694939124, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 44.00272694939124, "required_final_county_share_points": 44.00272694939124, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.024044322225107804, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999973, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 44.65121227002415, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 44.65121227002415, "required_final_county_share_points": 44.651212270024146, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.003259695682198218, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.9999999999999996, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": 1.2180332832614624, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "ABOVE", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.0004995603559595291, "criticality_score": 0.00041013686803523393, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -4387.79378255172, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -550.7352047943939, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1454.9633049038432, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Haley Stevens": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 50.919833119769066, "expected_final_county_share_points": 50.919833119769066, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 52.13786640303053, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 52.13786640303053, "required_final_county_share_points": 52.13786640303053, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 52.13786640303053, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 3815.4941996541347, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 52.13786640303053, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 52.13786640303053, "required_final_county_share_points": 52.13786640303053, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 52.13786640303053, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 52.78344474495713, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 52.78344474495713, "required_final_county_share_points": 52.78344474495713, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.07865391656842785, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.999999999999999, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 53.4275673428555, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 53.4275673428555, "required_final_county_share_points": 53.4275673428555, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.10597932088248406, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -1.2180332832614624, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.0004995603559595291, "criticality_score": 0.00041013686803523393, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 4483.287343313219, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 8320.345921070544, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 10326.044430768781, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Mallory McMorrow": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 4.506439238501557, "expected_final_county_share_points": 4.506439238501556, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 34.006699676915666, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 34.006699676915666, "required_final_county_share_points": 34.006699676915666, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 34.006699676915666, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 90644.40662807779, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 34.006699676915666, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 34.006699676915666, "required_final_county_share_points": 34.006699676915666, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 34.006699676915666, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 34.562275485625996, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 34.562275485625996, "required_final_county_share_points": 34.562275485625996, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.159018308558073, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999906, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 35.11414037128412, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 35.11414037128412, "required_final_county_share_points": 35.11414037128412, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.213613509684069, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.999999999999993, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -29.50026043841411, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "WELL BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.0004995603559595291, "criticality_score": 1.6934099853200643e-05, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 4436.873949431951, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 8273.932527189276, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 10279.631036887513, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } } } }, { "cid": "26085", "county": "26085", "fips": null, "reporting": 0.0, "current_votes": 0, "current_candidate_votes": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 0, "Haley Stevens": 0, "Mallory McMorrow": 0 }, "current_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": null, "Haley Stevens": null, "Mallory McMorrow": null }, "estimated_remaining_votes": 506.3753173110222, "estimated_final_votes": 506.3753173110222, "turnout_disagreement_votes": 0.0, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 43.199115891722116, "Haley Stevens": 52.26858402263711, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.5323000856407685 }, "remaining_sources": [ { "model": "market", "remaining_votes": 506.3753173110222, "weight": 0.1780093144963334 } ], "share_sources": [ { "model": "v0", "weight": 0.03630604611298715, "source": "statewide raw" }, { "model": "v3", "weight": 0.06301781787712588, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "market", "weight": 0.18729675699179427, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "histgeo", "weight": 0.02760802595386354, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "latent", "weight": 0.03563066882913146, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "batchbias", "weight": 0.020512372723621893, "source": "statewide fallback" } ], "candidate_benchmarks": { "Abdul El-Sayed": { "opponent": "Haley Stevens", "expected_remaining_share_points": 43.199115891722116, "expected_final_county_share_points": 43.199115891722116, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 41.98793525189698, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 41.98793525189698, "required_final_county_share_points": 41.98793525189698, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 41.98793525189698, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": -4516.226727114481, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": false }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 41.98793525189698, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 41.98793525189698, "required_final_county_share_points": 41.98793525189698, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 41.98793525189698, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 42.63110711518375, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 42.63110711518375, "required_final_county_share_points": 42.63110711518375, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.024044322225107804, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999973, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 43.2762245340953, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 43.2762245340953, "required_final_county_share_points": 43.2762245340953, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.003259695682198218, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.9999999999999996, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": 1.2111806398251375, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "ABOVE", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.00041247125742088065, "criticality_score": 0.00034055304705038106, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -5325.01758114788, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -677.8032251034496, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1751.3780655336166, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Haley Stevens": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 52.26858402263711, "expected_final_county_share_points": 52.268584022637114, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 53.479764662462244, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 53.479764662462244, "required_final_county_share_points": 53.479764662462244, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 53.479764662462244, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 4611.69442702884, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 53.479764662462244, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 53.479764662462244, "required_final_county_share_points": 53.479764662462244, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 53.479764662462244, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 54.12099340817025, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 54.12099340817025, "required_final_county_share_points": 54.12099340817025, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.07865391656842785, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.999999999999999, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 54.760281486804985, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 54.760281486804985, "required_final_county_share_points": 54.760281486804985, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.10597932088248406, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -1.2111806398251375, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.00041247125742088065, "criticality_score": 0.00034055304705038106, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 5420.485281062239, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 10067.699637106669, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 12496.880927743736, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Mallory McMorrow": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 4.5323000856407685, "expected_final_county_share_points": 4.532300085640768, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 33.44575257067542, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 33.44575257067542, "required_final_county_share_points": 33.44575257067542, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 33.44575257067542, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 109782.12282991371, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 33.44575257067542, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 33.44575257067542, "required_final_county_share_points": 33.44575257067542, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 33.44575257067542, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 33.9780176856445, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 33.9780176856445, "required_final_county_share_points": 33.9780176856445, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.159018308558073, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999906, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 34.506289168794844, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 34.506289168794844, "required_final_county_share_points": 34.506289168794844, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.213613509684069, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.999999999999993, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -28.913452485034647, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "WELL BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.00041247125742088065, "criticality_score": 1.4265721384686668e-05, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 5372.748997125243, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 10019.963353169673, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 12449.14464380674, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } } } }, { "cid": "fips:26085", "county": "Lake", "fips": "26085", "reporting": 61.51, "current_votes": 799, "current_candidate_votes": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 276, "Haley Stevens": 479, "Mallory McMorrow": 44 }, "current_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 34.54317897371715, "Haley Stevens": 59.94993742177722, "Mallory McMorrow": 5.506883604505632 }, "estimated_remaining_votes": 506.3753173110221, "estimated_final_votes": 1305.3753173110222, "turnout_disagreement_votes": 5.684341886080802e-14, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 39.11686072945762, "Haley Stevens": 55.90233128974575, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.980807980796619 }, "remaining_sources": [ { "model": "v3", "remaining_votes": 506.3753173110222, "weight": 0.1342208488636769 }, { "model": "histgeo", "remaining_votes": 506.3753173110222, "weight": 0.05994207394479305 }, { "model": "latent", "remaining_votes": 506.3753173110222, "weight": 0.07672787409296966 }, { "model": "batchbias", "remaining_votes": 506.3753173110222, "weight": 0.045123489075924846 } ], "share_sources": [ { "model": "v0", "weight": 0.03630604611298715, "source": "statewide raw" }, { "model": "v1", "weight": 0.14599140026529184, "source": "county live" }, { "model": "v3", "weight": 0.15004242351696637, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "market", "weight": 0.0786646379365536, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "histgeo", "weight": 0.06573339512824654, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "latent", "weight": 0.08483492578364633, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "batchbias", "weight": 0.04883898267529022, "source": "county remaining" } ], "candidate_benchmarks": { "Abdul El-Sayed": { "opponent": "Haley Stevens", "expected_remaining_share_points": 39.11686072945762, "expected_final_county_share_points": 36.31738101326045, "current_county_share_points": 34.54317897371715, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 37.94081195697267, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 37.94081195697267, "required_final_county_share_points": 35.861173467091255, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 37.94081195697267, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": -4520.308982276743, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": false }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 37.94081195697267, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 37.94081195697267, "required_final_county_share_points": 35.861173467091255, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 37.94081195697267, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 38.56471605988728, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 38.56471605988728, "required_final_county_share_points": 36.103195538364844, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.024044322225107804, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999973, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 39.19189925850463, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 39.19189925850463, "required_final_county_share_points": 36.34648962168352, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.003259695682198218, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.9999999999999996, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": 1.176048772484954, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "ABOVE", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.0004124712574208806, "criticality_score": 0.00035072631941049674, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -5329.099836310145, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -681.8854802657142, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1747.2958103713522, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Haley Stevens": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 55.90233128974575, "expected_final_county_share_points": 58.37980827020148, "current_county_share_points": 59.94993742177722, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 57.07838006223073, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 57.07838006223073, "required_final_county_share_points": 58.836015816370676, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 57.07838006223073, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 4615.328174295947, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 57.07838006223073, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 57.07838006223073, "required_final_county_share_points": 58.836015816370676, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 57.07838006223073, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 57.69902457924698, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 57.69902457924698, "required_final_county_share_points": 59.0767734437547, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.07865391656842785, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.999999999999999, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 58.31642887030091, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 58.31642887030091, "required_final_county_share_points": 59.316274137268366, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.10597932088248406, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -1.1760487724849753, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.0004124712574208806, "criticality_score": 0.0003507263194104904, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 5424.119028329349, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 10071.333384373778, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 12500.514675010847, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Mallory McMorrow": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 4.980807980796619, "expected_final_county_share_points": 5.302810716538061, "current_county_share_points": 5.506883604505632, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 32.618089802627765, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 32.618089802627765, "required_final_county_share_points": 16.023740679402863, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 32.618089802627765, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 109782.5713378089, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 32.618089802627765, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 32.618089802627765, "required_final_county_share_points": 16.023740679402863, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 32.618089802627765, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 33.06865824537867, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 33.06865824537867, "required_final_county_share_points": 16.198523161607532, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.159018308558073, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999906, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 33.51400724966242, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 33.51400724966242, "required_final_county_share_points": 16.37128094273585, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.213613509684069, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.999999999999993, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -27.637281821831145, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "WELL BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.0004124712574208806, "criticality_score": 1.4924450967354639e-05, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 5373.197505020399, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 10020.41186106483, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 12449.593151701898, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } } } }, { "cid": "26149", "county": "26149", "fips": null, "reporting": 0.0, "current_votes": 0, "current_candidate_votes": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 0, "Haley Stevens": 0, "Mallory McMorrow": 0 }, "current_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": null, "Haley Stevens": null, "Mallory McMorrow": null }, "estimated_remaining_votes": 431.73944174167264, "estimated_final_votes": 431.73944174167264, "turnout_disagreement_votes": 0.0, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 48.09341329613262, "Haley Stevens": 47.29472391385695, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.611862790010428 }, "remaining_sources": [ { "model": "market", "remaining_votes": 431.73944174167264, "weight": 0.1780093144963334 } ], "share_sources": [ { "model": "v0", "weight": 0.03630604611298715, "source": "statewide raw" }, { "model": "v3", "weight": 0.06301781787712588, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "market", "weight": 0.18729675699179427, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "histgeo", "weight": 0.02760802595386354, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "latent", "weight": 0.03563066882913146, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "batchbias", "weight": 0.020512372723621893, "source": "statewide fallback" } ], "candidate_benchmarks": { "Abdul El-Sayed": { "opponent": "Haley Stevens", "expected_remaining_share_points": 48.09341329613262, "expected_final_county_share_points": 48.093413296132624, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 46.86906565632576, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 46.86906565632576, "required_final_county_share_points": 46.86906565632576, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 46.86906565632576, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": -5299.531762422187, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": false }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 46.86906565632576, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 46.86906565632576, "required_final_county_share_points": 46.86906565632576, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 46.86906565632576, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 47.52003762443523, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 47.52003762443523, "required_final_county_share_points": 47.52003762443523, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.024044322225107804, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999973, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.171140791551124, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.171140791551124, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.171140791551124, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.003259695682198218, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.9999999999999996, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": 1.224347639806858, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "ABOVE", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.0003516761270257525, "criticality_score": 0.0002872355167697548, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -6248.140311359131, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -797.5504031005931, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 2051.569524164121, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Haley Stevens": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 47.29472391385695, "expected_final_county_share_points": 47.29472391385695, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.51907155366379, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.51907155366379, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.5190715536638, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 48.51907155366379, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 5394.919899632177, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.51907155366379, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.51907155366379, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.5190715536638, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 48.51907155366379, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 49.169905908368946, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 49.169905908368946, "required_final_county_share_points": 49.169905908368946, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.07865391656842785, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.999999999999999, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 49.820596229238916, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 49.820596229238916, "required_final_county_share_points": 49.82059622923891, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.10597932088248406, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -1.2243476398068438, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.0003516761270257525, "criticality_score": 0.0002872355167697581, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 6343.528448569121, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 11794.11835682766, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 14643.238284092375, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Mallory McMorrow": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 4.611862790010428, "expected_final_county_share_points": 4.611862790010428, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 35.91946525106776, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 35.91946525106776, "required_final_county_share_points": 35.91946525106776, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 35.91946525106776, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 128759.72863862103, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 35.91946525106776, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 35.91946525106776, "required_final_county_share_points": 35.91946525106776, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 35.91946525106776, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 36.52837432585997, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 36.52837432585997, "required_final_county_share_points": 36.52837432585997, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.159018308558073, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999906, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 37.13394601749837, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 37.13394601749837, "required_final_county_share_points": 37.13394601749837, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.213613509684069, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.999999999999993, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -31.307602461057336, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "WELL BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.0003516761270257525, "criticality_score": 1.1232930642427593e-05, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 6300.845587445275, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 11751.435495703812, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 14600.555422968528, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } } } }, { "cid": "26041", "county": "26041", "fips": null, "reporting": 0.0, "current_votes": 0, "current_candidate_votes": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 0, "Haley Stevens": 0, "Mallory McMorrow": 0 }, "current_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": null, "Haley Stevens": null, "Mallory McMorrow": null }, "estimated_remaining_votes": 396.7759728493211, "estimated_final_votes": 396.7759728493211, "turnout_disagreement_votes": 0.0, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 48.08364132586007, "Haley Stevens": 45.5273372645442, "Mallory McMorrow": 6.389021409595729 }, "remaining_sources": [ { "model": "market", "remaining_votes": 396.7759728493211, "weight": 0.1780093144963334 } ], "share_sources": [ { "model": "v0", "weight": 0.03630604611298715, "source": "statewide raw" }, { "model": "v3", "weight": 0.06301781787712588, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "market", "weight": 0.18729675699179427, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "histgeo", "weight": 0.02760802595386354, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "latent", "weight": 0.03563066882913146, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "batchbias", "weight": 0.020512372723621893, "source": "statewide fallback" } ], "candidate_benchmarks": { "Abdul El-Sayed": { "opponent": "Haley Stevens", "expected_remaining_share_points": 48.08364132586007, "expected_final_county_share_points": 48.08364132586007, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 46.882332138824054, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 46.882332138824054, "required_final_county_share_points": 46.882332138824054, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 46.882332138824054, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": -5770.768471690379, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": false }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 46.882332138824054, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 46.882332138824054, "required_final_county_share_points": 46.882332138824054, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 46.882332138824054, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 47.521200255812126, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 47.521200255812126, "required_final_county_share_points": 47.52120025581212, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.024044322225107804, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999973, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.15986680414474, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.15986680414474, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.15986680414474, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.003259695682198218, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.9999999999999996, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": 1.201309187036017, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "ABOVE", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.0003231964095418802, "criticality_score": 0.00026903682501529914, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -6802.9673783135395, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -872.077392069347, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 2228.1038966788874, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Haley Stevens": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 45.5273372645442, "expected_final_county_share_points": 45.5273372645442, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 46.72864645158021, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 46.72864645158021, "required_final_county_share_points": 46.72864645158021, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 46.72864645158021, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 5864.379450280782, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 46.72864645158021, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 46.72864645158021, "required_final_county_share_points": 46.72864645158021, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 46.72864645158021, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 47.36770989370302, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 47.36770989370302, "required_final_county_share_points": 47.36770989370302, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.07865391656842785, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.999999999999999, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.00696239847128, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.00696239847128, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.00696239847128, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.10597932088248406, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -1.20130918703601, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.0003231964095418802, "criticality_score": 0.00026903682501530076, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 6896.578356903944, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 12827.468343148135, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 15927.649631896371, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Mallory McMorrow": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 6.389021409595729, "expected_final_county_share_points": 6.38902140959573, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 40.73450052487804, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 40.73450052487804, "required_final_county_share_points": 40.73450052487804, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 40.73450052487804, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 140107.26720460394, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 40.73450052487804, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 40.73450052487804, "required_final_county_share_points": 40.73450052487804, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 40.73450052487804, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 41.279401133486175, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 41.279401133486175, "required_final_county_share_points": 41.279401133486175, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.159018308558073, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999906, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 41.81752857507337, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 41.81752857507337, "required_final_county_share_points": 41.81752857507337, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.213613509684069, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.999999999999993, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -34.34547911528231, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "WELL BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.0003231964095418802, "criticality_score": 9.410158712797553e-06, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 6857.440041048995, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 12788.330027293187, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 15888.511316041422, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } } } }, { "cid": "fips:26041", "county": "Delta", "fips": "26041", "reporting": 89.81, "current_votes": 4266, "current_candidate_votes": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 1995, "Haley Stevens": 1874, "Mallory McMorrow": 397 }, "current_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 46.76511954992968, "Haley Stevens": 43.92873886544773, "Mallory McMorrow": 9.306141584622598 }, "estimated_remaining_votes": 396.775972849321, "estimated_final_votes": 4662.775972849321, "turnout_disagreement_votes": 5.684341886080802e-14, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 47.48700038799759, "Haley Stevens": 44.73470989203269, "Mallory McMorrow": 7.778289719969729 }, "remaining_sources": [ { "model": "v3", "remaining_votes": 396.7759728493211, "weight": 0.1342208488636769 }, { "model": "histgeo", "remaining_votes": 396.7759728493211, "weight": 0.05994207394479305 }, { "model": "latent", "remaining_votes": 396.7759728493211, "weight": 0.07672787409296966 }, { "model": "batchbias", "remaining_votes": 396.7759728493211, "weight": 0.045123489075924846 } ], "share_sources": [ { "model": "v0", "weight": 0.03630604611298715, "source": "statewide raw" }, { "model": "v1", "weight": 0.14599140026529184, "source": "county live" }, { "model": "v3", "weight": 0.15004242351696637, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "market", "weight": 0.0786646379365536, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "histgeo", "weight": 0.06573339512824654, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "latent", "weight": 0.08483492578364633, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "batchbias", "weight": 0.04883898267529022, "source": "county remaining" } ], "candidate_benchmarks": { "Abdul El-Sayed": { "opponent": "Haley Stevens", "expected_remaining_share_points": 47.48700038799759, "expected_final_county_share_points": 46.826547543355375, "current_county_share_points": 46.76511954992968, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 46.303614269873, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 46.303614269873, "required_final_county_share_points": 46.725848049961456, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 46.303614269873, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": -5771.365112628237, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": false }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 46.303614269873, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 46.303614269873, "required_final_county_share_points": 46.725848049961456, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 46.303614269873, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 46.932969918797156, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 46.932969918797156, "required_final_county_share_points": 46.77940267092633, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.024044322225107804, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999973, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 47.56208340910016, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 47.56208340910016, "required_final_county_share_points": 46.83293668555648, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.003259695682198218, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.9999999999999996, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": 1.183386118124588, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "ABOVE", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.00032319640954188016, "criticality_score": 0.00027311154372342716, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -6803.564019251403, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -872.6740330072097, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 2227.5072557410253, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Haley Stevens": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 44.73470989203269, "expected_final_county_share_points": 43.99732246028987, "current_county_share_points": 43.92873886544773, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 45.91809601015729, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 45.91809601015729, "required_final_county_share_points": 44.09802195368379, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 45.91809601015729, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 5863.586822908267, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 45.91809601015729, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 45.91809601015729, "required_final_county_share_points": 44.09802195368379, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 45.91809601015729, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 46.54768771232132, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 46.54768771232132, "required_final_county_share_points": 44.15159666144985, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.07865391656842785, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.999999999999999, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 47.177509341970435, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 47.177509341970435, "required_final_county_share_points": 44.20519093474986, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.10597932088248406, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -1.1833861181246021, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.00032319640954188016, "criticality_score": 0.0002731115437234239, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 6895.785729531433, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 12826.675715775626, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 15926.857004523861, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Mallory McMorrow": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 7.778289719969729, "expected_final_county_share_points": 9.176129996354751, "current_county_share_points": 9.306141584622598, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 43.39344995198057, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 43.39344995198057, "required_final_county_share_points": 12.2067795346394, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 43.39344995198057, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 140108.6564729143, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 43.39344995198057, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 43.39344995198057, "required_final_county_share_points": 12.2067795346394, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 43.39344995198057, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 43.88688984856548, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 43.88688984856548, "required_final_county_share_points": 12.24876849060687, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.159018308558073, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999906, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 44.37228310234459, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 44.37228310234459, "required_final_county_share_points": 12.290072722593168, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.213613509684069, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.999999999999993, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -35.615160232010844, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "WELL BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.00032319640954188016, "criticality_score": 9.074686381767048e-06, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 6858.82930935937, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 12789.719295603563, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 15889.900584351799, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } } } }, { "cid": "fips:26013", "county": "Baraga", "fips": "26013", "reporting": 66.21, "current_votes": 527, "current_candidate_votes": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 227, "Haley Stevens": 251, "Mallory McMorrow": 49 }, "current_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 43.07400379506641, "Haley Stevens": 47.6280834914611, "Mallory McMorrow": 9.297912713472485 }, "estimated_remaining_votes": 336.3151388567894, "estimated_final_votes": 863.3151388567894, "turnout_disagreement_votes": 0.0, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 44.94674107975395, "Haley Stevens": 47.400994030102744, "Mallory McMorrow": 7.652264890143298 }, "remaining_sources": [ { "model": "v3", "remaining_votes": 336.3151388567894, "weight": 0.1342208488636769 }, { "model": "histgeo", "remaining_votes": 336.3151388567894, "weight": 0.05994207394479305 }, { "model": "latent", "remaining_votes": 336.3151388567894, "weight": 0.07672787409296966 }, { "model": "batchbias", "remaining_votes": 336.3151388567894, "weight": 0.045123489075924846 } ], "share_sources": [ { "model": "v0", "weight": 0.03630604611298715, "source": "statewide raw" }, { "model": "v1", "weight": 0.14599140026529184, "source": "county live" }, { "model": "v3", "weight": 0.15004242351696637, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "market", "weight": 0.0786646379365536, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "histgeo", "weight": 0.06573339512824654, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "latent", "weight": 0.08483492578364633, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "batchbias", "weight": 0.04883898267529022, "source": "county remaining" } ], "candidate_benchmarks": { "Abdul El-Sayed": { "opponent": "Haley Stevens", "expected_remaining_share_points": 44.94674107975395, "expected_final_county_share_points": 43.80355187269656, "current_county_share_points": 43.07400379506641, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 43.76323433444735, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 43.76323433444735, "required_final_county_share_points": 43.34250211523162, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 43.76323433444735, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": -6819.985702509919, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": false }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 43.76323433444735, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 43.76323433444735, "required_final_county_share_points": 43.34250211523162, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 43.76323433444735, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 44.39222735989403, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 44.39222735989403, "required_final_county_share_points": 43.587534163404875, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.024044322225107804, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999973, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 45.02194749588468, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 45.02194749588468, "required_final_county_share_points": 43.83284946652473, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.003259695682198218, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.9999999999999996, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": 1.1835067453066017, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "ABOVE", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.0002739476500366905, "criticality_score": 0.00023147113535522865, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -8037.747492067101, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -1040.6356399110903, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 2616.878711163475, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Haley Stevens": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 47.400994030102744, "expected_final_county_share_points": 47.53961797024856, "current_county_share_points": 47.6280834914611, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.584500775409346, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.584500775409346, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.0006677277135, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 48.584500775409346, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 6912.333437619776, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.584500775409346, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.584500775409346, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.0006677277135, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 48.584500775409346, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 49.21276172169905, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 49.21276172169905, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.24541458535521, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.07865391656842785, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.999999999999999, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 49.84028563522187, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 49.84028563522187, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.48987432272509, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.10597932088248406, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -1.1835067453066017, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.0002739476500366905, "criticality_score": 0.00023147113535522865, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 8130.095227176958, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 15127.207079332968, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 18784.721430407535, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Mallory McMorrow": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 7.652264890143298, "expected_final_county_share_points": 8.656830157054884, "current_county_share_points": 9.297912713472485, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 41.63898097603891, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 41.63898097603891, "required_final_county_share_points": 21.89677768635491, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 41.63898097603891, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 165295.07413694586, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 41.63898097603891, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 41.63898097603891, "required_final_county_share_points": 21.89677768635491, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 41.63898097603891, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 42.098105434570265, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 42.098105434570265, "required_final_county_share_points": 22.075635323703878, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.159018308558073, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999906, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 42.54943734201543, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 42.54943734201543, "required_final_county_share_points": 22.25145727595636, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.213613509684069, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.999999999999993, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -33.98671608589561, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "WELL BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.0002739476500366905, "criticality_score": 8.060433062857109e-06, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 8090.346498036999, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 15087.458350193008, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 18744.972701267576, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } } } }, { "cid": "26013", "county": "26013", "fips": null, "reporting": 0.0, "current_votes": 0, "current_candidate_votes": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 0, "Haley Stevens": 0, "Mallory McMorrow": 0 }, "current_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": null, "Haley Stevens": null, "Mallory McMorrow": null }, "estimated_remaining_votes": 336.3151388567894, "estimated_final_votes": 336.3151388567894, "turnout_disagreement_votes": 0.0, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 46.650172572260715, "Haley Stevens": 47.10924830144807, "Mallory McMorrow": 6.240579126291228 }, "remaining_sources": [ { "model": "market", "remaining_votes": 336.3151388567894, "weight": 0.1780093144963334 } ], "share_sources": [ { "model": "v0", "weight": 0.03630604611298715, "source": "statewide raw" }, { "model": "v3", "weight": 0.06301781787712588, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "market", "weight": 0.18729675699179427, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "histgeo", "weight": 0.02760802595386354, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "latent", "weight": 0.03563066882913146, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "batchbias", "weight": 0.020512372723621893, "source": "statewide fallback" } ], "candidate_benchmarks": { "Abdul El-Sayed": { "opponent": "Haley Stevens", "expected_remaining_share_points": 46.650172572260715, "expected_final_county_share_points": 46.650172572260715, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 45.44708452518822, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 45.44708452518822, "required_final_county_share_points": 45.44708452518822, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 45.44708452518822, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": -6818.28227101741, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": false }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 45.44708452518822, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 45.44708452518822, "required_final_county_share_points": 45.44708452518822, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 45.44708452518822, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 46.08665097214028, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 46.08665097214028, "required_final_county_share_points": 46.08665097214028, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.024044322225107804, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999973, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 46.7265780774185, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 46.7265780774185, "required_final_county_share_points": 46.7265780774185, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.003259695682198218, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.9999999999999996, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": 1.203088047072498, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "ABOVE", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.0002739476500366905, "criticality_score": 0.00022770374180284948, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -8036.044060574594, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -1038.9322084185835, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 2618.582142655982, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Haley Stevens": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 47.10924830144807, "expected_final_county_share_points": 47.109248301448076, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.31233634852057, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.31233634852057, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.31233634852057, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 48.31233634852057, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 6912.041691891119, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.31233634852057, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.31233634852057, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.31233634852057, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 48.31233634852057, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.95153610443062, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.95153610443062, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.95153610443062, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.07865391656842785, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.999999999999999, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 49.59036313950515, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 49.59036313950515, "required_final_county_share_points": 49.59036313950515, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.10597932088248406, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -1.203088047072498, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.0002739476500366905, "criticality_score": 0.00022770374180284948, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 8129.8034814483035, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 15126.915333604313, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 18784.42968467888, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Mallory McMorrow": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 6.240579126291228, "expected_final_county_share_points": 6.240579126291228, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 39.61884293840008, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 39.61884293840008, "required_final_county_share_points": 39.61884293840008, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 39.61884293840008, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 165293.662451182, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 39.61884293840008, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 39.61884293840008, "required_final_county_share_points": 39.61884293840008, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 39.61884293840008, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 40.14611042620819, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 40.14611042620819, "required_final_county_share_points": 40.14611042620818, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.159018308558073, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999906, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 40.66675409795603, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 40.66675409795603, "required_final_county_share_points": 40.66675409795603, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.213613509684069, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.999999999999993, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -33.37826381210885, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "WELL BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.0002739476500366905, "criticality_score": 8.207366673676681e-06, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 8088.934812273146, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 15086.046664429157, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 18743.56101550372, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } } } }, { "cid": "26039", "county": "26039", "fips": null, "reporting": 0.0, "current_votes": 0, "current_candidate_votes": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 0, "Haley Stevens": 0, "Mallory McMorrow": 0 }, "current_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": null, "Haley Stevens": null, "Mallory McMorrow": null }, "estimated_remaining_votes": 288.24888430558144, "estimated_final_votes": 288.24888430558144, "turnout_disagreement_votes": 0.0, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 45.054644259731226, "Haley Stevens": 49.856409673163114, "Mallory McMorrow": 5.0889460671056606 }, "remaining_sources": [ { "model": "market", "remaining_votes": 288.24888430558144, "weight": 0.1780093144963334 } ], "share_sources": [ { "model": "v0", "weight": 0.03630604611298715, "source": "statewide raw" }, { "model": "v3", "weight": 0.06301781787712588, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "market", "weight": 0.18729675699179427, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "histgeo", "weight": 0.02760802595386354, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "latent", "weight": 0.03563066882913146, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "batchbias", "weight": 0.020512372723621893, "source": "statewide fallback" } ], "candidate_benchmarks": { "Abdul El-Sayed": { "opponent": "Haley Stevens", "expected_remaining_share_points": 45.054644259731226, "expected_final_county_share_points": 45.05464425973122, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 43.84128990411485, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 43.84128990411485, "required_final_county_share_points": 43.84128990411485, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 43.84128990411485, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": -7964.6232199596325, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": false }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 43.84128990411485, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 43.84128990411485, "required_final_county_share_points": 43.84128990411485, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 43.84128990411485, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 44.485959841390354, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 44.485959841390354, "required_final_county_share_points": 44.485959841390354, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.024044322225107804, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999973, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 45.13179787023734, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 45.13179787023734, "required_final_county_share_points": 45.13179787023735, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.003259695682198218, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.9999999999999996, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": 1.2133543556163744, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "ABOVE", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.00023479497458732312, "criticality_score": 0.0001935089889449889, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -9385.449969509973, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -1221.5514350074086, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 3045.862989911232, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Haley Stevens": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 49.856409673163114, "expected_final_county_share_points": 49.856409673163114, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 51.06976402877949, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 51.06976402877949, "required_final_county_share_points": 51.06976402877949, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 51.06976402877949, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 8059.534273892528, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 51.06976402877949, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 51.06976402877949, "required_final_county_share_points": 51.06976402877949, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 51.06976402877949, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 51.713262664433465, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 51.713262664433465, "required_final_county_share_points": 51.713262664433465, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.07865391656842785, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.999999999999999, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 52.355586811943496, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 52.355586811943496, "required_final_county_share_points": 52.355586811943496, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.10597932088248406, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -1.2133543556163744, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.00023479497458732312, "criticality_score": 0.0001935089889449889, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 9480.361023442867, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 17644.259557945432, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 21911.673982864075, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Mallory McMorrow": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 5.0889460671056606, "expected_final_county_share_points": 5.08894606710566, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 35.90023644549594, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 35.90023644549594, "required_final_county_share_points": 35.90023644549594, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 35.90023644549594, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 192854.62025335888, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 35.90023644549594, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 35.90023644549594, "required_final_county_share_points": 35.90023644549594, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 35.90023644549594, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 36.44202928475702, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 36.44202928475702, "required_final_county_share_points": 36.44202928475702, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.159018308558073, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999906, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 36.97889009581678, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 36.97889009581678, "required_final_county_share_points": 36.97889009581678, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.213613509684069, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.999999999999993, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -30.811290378390282, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "WELL BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.00023479497458732312, "criticality_score": 7.62042003771443e-06, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 9435.59355983681, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 17599.492094339374, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 21866.906519258016, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } } } }, { "cid": "fips:26039", "county": "Crawford", "fips": "26039", "reporting": 81.36, "current_votes": 1135, "current_candidate_votes": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 457, "Haley Stevens": 603, "Mallory McMorrow": 75 }, "current_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 40.264317180616736, "Haley Stevens": 53.12775330396475, "Mallory McMorrow": 6.607929515418502 }, "estimated_remaining_votes": 288.2488843055814, "estimated_final_votes": 1423.2488843055814, "turnout_disagreement_votes": 5.684341886080802e-14, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 42.80005387347693, "Haley Stevens": 51.38073778693716, "Mallory McMorrow": 5.81920833958592 }, "remaining_sources": [ { "model": "v3", "remaining_votes": 288.24888430558144, "weight": 0.1342208488636769 }, { "model": "histgeo", "remaining_votes": 288.24888430558144, "weight": 0.05994207394479305 }, { "model": "latent", "remaining_votes": 288.24888430558144, "weight": 0.07672787409296966 }, { "model": "batchbias", "remaining_votes": 288.24888430558144, "weight": 0.045123489075924846 } ], "share_sources": [ { "model": "v0", "weight": 0.03630604611298715, "source": "statewide raw" }, { "model": "v1", "weight": 0.14599140026529184, "source": "county live" }, { "model": "v3", "weight": 0.15004242351696637, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "market", "weight": 0.0786646379365536, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "histgeo", "weight": 0.06573339512824654, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "latent", "weight": 0.08483492578364633, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "batchbias", "weight": 0.04883898267529022, "source": "county remaining" } ], "candidate_benchmarks": { "Abdul El-Sayed": { "opponent": "Haley Stevens", "expected_remaining_share_points": 42.80005387347693, "expected_final_county_share_points": 40.7778768824157, "current_county_share_points": 40.264317180616736, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 41.60420753215299, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 41.60420753215299, "required_final_county_share_points": 40.53568356156464, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 41.60420753215299, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": -7966.877810345888, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": false }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 41.60420753215299, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 41.60420753215299, "required_final_county_share_points": 40.53568356156464, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 41.60420753215299, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 42.239266117793015, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 42.239266117793015, "required_final_county_share_points": 40.66430121291009, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.024044322225107804, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999973, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 42.87617820330037, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 42.87617820330037, "required_final_county_share_points": 40.79329425135382, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.003259695682198218, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.9999999999999996, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": 1.1958463413239357, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "ABOVE", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.00023479497458732306, "criticality_score": 0.00019634209385745893, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -9387.70455989623, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -1223.8060253936633, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 3043.6083995249787, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Haley Stevens": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 51.38073778693716, "expected_final_county_share_points": 52.773932353039896, "current_county_share_points": 53.12775330396475, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 52.57658412826108, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 52.57658412826108, "required_final_county_share_points": 53.016125673890954, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 52.57658412826108, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 8061.058602006303, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 52.57658412826108, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 52.57658412826108, "required_final_county_share_points": 53.016125673890954, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 52.57658412826108, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 53.20979102242557, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 53.20979102242557, "required_final_county_share_points": 53.14436830438953, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.07865391656842785, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.999999999999999, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 53.8411480484796, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 53.8411480484796, "required_final_county_share_points": 53.27223628332518, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.10597932088248406, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -1.1958463413239215, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.00023479497458732306, "criticality_score": 0.00019634209385746126, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 9481.885351556646, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 17645.783886059213, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 21913.198310977856, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Mallory McMorrow": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 5.81920833958592, "expected_final_county_share_points": 6.448190764544403, "current_county_share_points": 6.607929515418502, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 36.566907984579835, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 36.566907984579835, "required_final_county_share_points": 12.67548538277062, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 36.566907984579835, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 192855.35051563143, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 36.566907984579835, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 36.566907984579835, "required_final_county_share_points": 12.67548538277062, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 36.566907984579835, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 37.04758941859295, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 37.04758941859295, "required_final_county_share_points": 12.772837215319777, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.159018308558073, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999906, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 37.52208032927257, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 37.52208032927257, "required_final_county_share_points": 12.868935288625677, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.213613509684069, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.999999999999993, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -30.747699644993915, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "WELL BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.00023479497458732306, "criticality_score": 7.636180179272384e-06, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 9436.323822109294, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 17600.22235661186, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 21867.636781530502, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } } } }, { "cid": "fips:26063", "county": "Huron", "fips": "26063", "reporting": 91.36, "current_votes": 2200, "current_candidate_votes": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 760, "Haley Stevens": 1314, "Mallory McMorrow": 126 }, "current_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 34.54545454545455, "Haley Stevens": 59.72727272727273, "Mallory McMorrow": 5.7272727272727275 }, "estimated_remaining_votes": 251.93734469721267, "estimated_final_votes": 2451.9373446972127, "turnout_disagreement_votes": 0.0, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 38.64033651005351, "Haley Stevens": 56.173005201419045, "Mallory McMorrow": 5.186658288527445 }, "remaining_sources": [ { "model": "v3", "remaining_votes": 251.93734469721267, "weight": 0.1342208488636769 }, { "model": "histgeo", "remaining_votes": 251.93734469721267, "weight": 0.05994207394479305 }, { "model": "latent", "remaining_votes": 251.93734469721267, "weight": 0.07672787409296966 }, { "model": "batchbias", "remaining_votes": 251.93734469721267, "weight": 0.045123489075924846 } ], "share_sources": [ { "model": "v0", "weight": 0.03630604611298715, "source": "statewide raw" }, { "model": "v1", "weight": 0.14599140026529184, "source": "county live" }, { "model": "v3", "weight": 0.15004242351696637, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "market", "weight": 0.0786646379365536, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "histgeo", "weight": 0.06573339512824654, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "latent", "weight": 0.08483492578364633, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "batchbias", "weight": 0.04883898267529022, "source": "county remaining" } ], "candidate_benchmarks": { "Abdul El-Sayed": { "opponent": "Haley Stevens", "expected_remaining_share_points": 38.64033651005351, "expected_final_county_share_points": 34.966204974188265, "current_county_share_points": 34.54545454545455, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 37.47070203465057, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 37.47070203465057, "required_final_county_share_points": 34.84602465855474, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 37.47070203465057, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": -9125.466361459316, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": false }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 37.47070203465057, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 37.47070203465057, "required_final_county_share_points": 34.84602465855474, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 37.47070203465057, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 38.09114178741645, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 38.09114178741645, "required_final_county_share_points": 34.90977504116321, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.024044322225107804, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999973, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 38.71498253549025, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 38.71498253549025, "required_final_county_share_points": 34.97387487712498, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.003259695682198218, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.9999999999999996, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": 1.1696344754029369, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "ABOVE", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.00020521717746899986, "criticality_score": 0.00017545411133534084, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -10751.0757995584, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -1410.5207223326024, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 3471.9529273388816, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Haley Stevens": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 56.173005201419045, "expected_final_county_share_points": 59.36207060465581, "current_county_share_points": 59.72727272727273, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 57.342639676821996, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 57.342639676821996, "required_final_county_share_points": 59.48225092028934, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 57.342639676821996, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 9220.279703170787, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 57.342639676821996, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 57.342639676821996, "required_final_county_share_points": 59.48225092028934, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 57.342639676821996, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 57.95970006739882, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 57.95970006739882, "required_final_county_share_points": 59.54565407235436, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.07865391656842785, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.999999999999999, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 58.573402549759855, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 58.573402549759855, "required_final_county_share_points": 59.608712198278546, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.10597932088248406, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -1.169634475402951, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.00020521717746899986, "criticality_score": 0.0001754541113353387, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 10845.889141269874, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 20186.444218495668, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 25068.917868167155, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Mallory McMorrow": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 5.186658288527445, "expected_final_county_share_points": 5.671724421155925, "current_county_share_points": 5.7272727272727275, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 32.85741682191905, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 32.85741682191905, "required_final_county_share_points": 8.514903691514196, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 32.85741682191905, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 220649.9755639968, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 32.85741682191905, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 32.85741682191905, "required_final_county_share_points": 8.514903691514196, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 32.85741682191905, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 33.29357348243505, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 33.29357348243505, "required_final_county_share_points": 8.559718927580507, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.159018308558073, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999906, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 33.72422195396603, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 33.72422195396603, "required_final_county_share_points": 8.60396819547068, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.213613509684069, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.999999999999993, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -27.670758533391606, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "WELL BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.00020521717746899986, "criticality_score": 7.416391466874847e-06, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 10794.902794356982, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 20135.457871582777, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 25017.931521254264, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } } } }, { "cid": "26063", "county": "26063", "fips": null, "reporting": 0.0, "current_votes": 0, "current_candidate_votes": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 0, "Haley Stevens": 0, "Mallory McMorrow": 0 }, "current_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": null, "Haley Stevens": null, "Mallory McMorrow": null }, "estimated_remaining_votes": 251.93734469721267, "estimated_final_votes": 251.93734469721267, "turnout_disagreement_votes": 0.0, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 42.41133648852992, "Haley Stevens": 52.910001196695674, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.678662314774414 }, "remaining_sources": [ { "model": "market", "remaining_votes": 251.93734469721267, "weight": 0.1780093144963334 } ], "share_sources": [ { "model": "v0", "weight": 0.03630604611298715, "source": "statewide raw" }, { "model": "v3", "weight": 0.06301781787712588, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "market", "weight": 0.18729675699179427, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "histgeo", "weight": 0.02760802595386354, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "latent", "weight": 0.03563066882913146, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "batchbias", "weight": 0.020512372723621893, "source": "statewide fallback" } ], "candidate_benchmarks": { "Abdul El-Sayed": { "opponent": "Haley Stevens", "expected_remaining_share_points": 42.41133648852992, "expected_final_county_share_points": 42.41133648852992, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 41.206269829798885, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 41.206269829798885, "required_final_county_share_points": 41.206269829798885, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 41.206269829798885, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": -9121.695361480834, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": false }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 41.206269829798885, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 41.206269829798885, "required_final_county_share_points": 41.206269829798885, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 41.206269829798885, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 41.84607868120022, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 41.84607868120022, "required_final_county_share_points": 41.84607868120022, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.024044322225107804, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999973, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 42.48808752368594, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 42.48808752368594, "required_final_county_share_points": 42.48808752368594, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.003259695682198218, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.9999999999999996, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": 1.2050666587310346, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "ABOVE", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.00020521717746899986, "criticality_score": 0.00017029529112115566, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -10747.304799579924, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -1406.7497223541259, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 3475.7239273173577, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Haley Stevens": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 52.910001196695674, "expected_final_county_share_points": 52.910001196695674, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 54.1150678554267, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 54.1150678554267, "required_final_county_share_points": 54.1150678554267, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 54.1150678554267, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 9217.016699166059, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 54.1150678554267, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 54.1150678554267, "required_final_county_share_points": 54.1150678554267, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 54.1150678554267, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 54.75268169179759, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 54.75268169179759, "required_final_county_share_points": 54.75268169179759, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.07865391656842785, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.999999999999999, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 55.388105487310035, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 55.388105487310035, "required_final_county_share_points": 55.388105487310035, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.10597932088248406, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -1.2050666587310275, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.00020521717746899986, "criticality_score": 0.00017029529112115666, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 10842.62613726515, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 20183.181214490945, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 25065.654864162432, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Mallory McMorrow": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 4.678662314774414, "expected_final_county_share_points": 4.678662314774414, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 33.48688687497584, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 33.48688687497584, "required_final_county_share_points": 33.48688687497584, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 33.48688687497584, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 220649.46756802304, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 33.48688687497584, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 33.48688687497584, "required_final_county_share_points": 33.48688687497584, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 33.48688687497584, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 34.0009717077662, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 34.0009717077662, "required_final_county_share_points": 34.0009717077662, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.159018308558073, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999906, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 34.51063677540445, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 34.51063677540445, "required_final_county_share_points": 34.51063677540445, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.213613509684069, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.999999999999993, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -28.808224560201424, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "WELL BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.00020521717746899986, "criticality_score": 7.123562128591135e-06, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 10794.39479838323, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 20134.949875609025, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 25017.423525280512, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } } } }, { "cid": "26079", "county": "26079", "fips": null, "reporting": 0.0, "current_votes": 0, "current_candidate_votes": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 0, "Haley Stevens": 0, "Mallory McMorrow": 0 }, "current_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": null, "Haley Stevens": null, "Mallory McMorrow": null }, "estimated_remaining_votes": 216.38155288811413, "estimated_final_votes": 216.38155288811413, "turnout_disagreement_votes": 0.0, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 47.96647548689527, "Haley Stevens": 47.502775719210796, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.530748793893928 }, "remaining_sources": [ { "model": "market", "remaining_votes": 216.38155288811413, "weight": 0.1780093144963334 } ], "share_sources": [ { "model": "v0", "weight": 0.03630604611298715, "source": "statewide raw" }, { "model": "v3", "weight": 0.06301781787712588, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "market", "weight": 0.18729675699179427, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "histgeo", "weight": 0.02760802595386354, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "latent", "weight": 0.03563066882913146, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "batchbias", "weight": 0.020512372723621893, "source": "statewide fallback" } ], "candidate_benchmarks": { "Abdul El-Sayed": { "opponent": "Haley Stevens", "expected_remaining_share_points": 47.96647548689527, "expected_final_county_share_points": 47.96647548689527, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 46.74114031347992, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 46.74114031347992, "required_final_county_share_points": 46.741140313479924, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 46.74114031347992, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": -10621.985177934146, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": false }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 46.74114031347992, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 46.74114031347992, "required_final_county_share_points": 46.741140313479924, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 46.74114031347992, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 47.39260980326423, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 47.39260980326423, "required_final_county_share_points": 47.392609803264236, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.024044322225107804, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999973, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.044273143240204, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.044273143240204, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.044273143240204, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.003259695682198218, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.9999999999999996, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": 1.2253351734153526, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "ABOVE", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.00017625497956019845, "criticality_score": 0.00014384225915014455, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -12514.714571373614, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -1639.3205613715727, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 4045.4405951785297, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Haley Stevens": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 47.502775719210796, "expected_final_county_share_points": 47.50277571921079, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.728110892626155, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.728110892626155, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.72811089262615, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 48.728110892626155, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 10717.454429140253, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.728110892626155, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.728110892626155, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.72811089262615, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 48.728110892626155, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 49.37938016065051, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 49.37938016065051, "required_final_county_share_points": 49.37938016065051, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.07865391656842785, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.999999999999999, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 50.030442831752964, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 50.030442831752964, "required_final_county_share_points": 50.030442831752964, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.10597932088248406, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -1.2253351734153597, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.00017625497956019845, "criticality_score": 0.0001438422591501437, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 12610.18382257972, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 23485.577832581756, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 29170.338989131862, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Mallory McMorrow": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 4.530748793893928, "expected_final_county_share_points": 4.530748793893928, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 35.60512623336344, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 35.60512623336344, "required_final_county_share_points": 35.60512623336344, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 35.60512623336344, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 256905.6459142108, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 35.60512623336344, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 35.60512623336344, "required_final_county_share_points": 35.60512623336344, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 35.60512623336344, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 36.215042364555146, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 36.215042364555146, "required_final_county_share_points": 36.215042364555146, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.159018308558073, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999906, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 36.821827322871094, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 36.821827322871094, "required_final_county_share_points": 36.821827322871094, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.213613509684069, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.999999999999993, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -31.074377439469515, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "WELL BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.00017625497956019845, "criticality_score": 5.672035744031543e-06, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 12567.211795654403, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 23442.60580565644, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 29127.366962206546, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } } } }, { "cid": "fips:26079", "county": "Kalkaska", "fips": "26079", "reporting": 89.08, "current_votes": 1468, "current_candidate_votes": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 685, "Haley Stevens": 704, "Mallory McMorrow": 79 }, "current_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 46.66212534059945, "Haley Stevens": 47.956403269754766, "Mallory McMorrow": 5.381471389645776 }, "estimated_remaining_votes": 216.3815528881141, "estimated_final_votes": 1684.3815528881141, "turnout_disagreement_votes": 2.842170943040401e-14, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 47.42419666440505, "Haley Stevens": 47.64061478778091, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.935188547814027 }, "remaining_sources": [ { "model": "v3", "remaining_votes": 216.38155288811413, "weight": 0.1342208488636769 }, { "model": "histgeo", "remaining_votes": 216.38155288811413, "weight": 0.05994207394479305 }, { "model": "latent", "remaining_votes": 216.38155288811413, "weight": 0.07672787409296966 }, { "model": "batchbias", "remaining_votes": 216.38155288811413, "weight": 0.045123489075924846 } ], "share_sources": [ { "model": "v0", "weight": 0.03630604611298715, "source": "statewide raw" }, { "model": "v1", "weight": 0.14599140026529184, "source": "county live" }, { "model": "v3", "weight": 0.15004242351696637, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "market", "weight": 0.0786646379365536, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "histgeo", "weight": 0.06573339512824654, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "latent", "weight": 0.08483492578364633, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "batchbias", "weight": 0.04883898267529022, "source": "county remaining" } ], "candidate_benchmarks": { "Abdul El-Sayed": { "opponent": "Haley Stevens", "expected_remaining_share_points": 47.42419666440505, "expected_final_county_share_points": 46.76002369158401, "current_county_share_points": 46.66212534059945, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 46.20425335822513, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 46.20425335822513, "required_final_county_share_points": 46.60330550230318, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 46.20425335822513, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": -10622.527456756627, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": false }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 46.20425335822513, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 46.20425335822513, "required_final_county_share_points": 46.60330550230318, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 46.20425335822513, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 46.85280055284729, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 46.85280055284729, "required_final_county_share_points": 46.68662014609807, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.024044322225107804, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999973, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 47.50166707060967, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 47.50166707060967, "required_final_county_share_points": 46.76997581126182, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.003259695682198218, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.9999999999999996, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": 1.2199433061799212, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "ABOVE", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.00017625497956019845, "criticality_score": 0.00014447800866428443, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -12515.256850196103, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -1639.8628401940628, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 4044.8983163560392, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Haley Stevens": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 47.64061478778091, "expected_final_county_share_points": 47.9158359754879, "current_county_share_points": 47.956403269754766, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.86055809396084, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.86055809396084, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.072554164768746, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 48.86055809396084, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 10717.592268208813, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.86055809396084, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.86055809396084, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.072554164768746, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 48.86055809396084, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 49.508779773898276, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 49.508779773898276, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.15582699180732, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.07865391656842785, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.999999999999999, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 50.156669748850845, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 50.156669748850845, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.239057206861915, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.10597932088248406, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -1.2199433061799283, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.00017625497956019845, "criticality_score": 0.0001444780086642836, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 12610.32166164829, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 23485.715671650327, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 29170.476828200433, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Mallory McMorrow": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 4.935188547814027, "expected_final_county_share_points": 5.324140332928078, "current_county_share_points": 5.381471389645776, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 36.59895272971209, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 36.59895272971209, "required_final_county_share_points": 9.391778364355307, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 36.59895272971209, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 256906.0503539647, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 36.59895272971209, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 36.59895272971209, "required_final_county_share_points": 9.391778364355307, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 36.59895272971209, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 37.184784240853055, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 37.184784240853055, "required_final_county_share_points": 9.467036331823616, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.159018308558073, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999906, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 37.766325702218, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 37.766325702218, "required_final_county_share_points": 9.541743184474196, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.213613509684069, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.999999999999993, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -31.66376418189806, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "WELL BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.00017625497956019845, "criticality_score": 5.566456929999565e-06, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 12567.616235408323, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 23443.010245410358, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 29127.771401960465, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } } } }, { "cid": "26029", "county": "26029", "fips": null, "reporting": 0.0, "current_votes": 0, "current_candidate_votes": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 0, "Haley Stevens": 0, "Mallory McMorrow": 0 }, "current_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": null, "Haley Stevens": null, "Mallory McMorrow": null }, "estimated_remaining_votes": 188.7267376707814, "estimated_final_votes": 188.7267376707814, "turnout_disagreement_votes": 0.0, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 49.2334725243315, "Haley Stevens": 46.49050030554237, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.2760271701261265 }, "remaining_sources": [ { "model": "market", "remaining_votes": 188.7267376707814, "weight": 0.1780093144963334 } ], "share_sources": [ { "model": "v0", "weight": 0.03630604611298715, "source": "statewide raw" }, { "model": "v3", "weight": 0.06301781787712588, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "market", "weight": 0.18729675699179427, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "histgeo", "weight": 0.02760802595386354, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "latent", "weight": 0.03563066882913146, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "batchbias", "weight": 0.020512372723621893, "source": "statewide fallback" } ], "candidate_benchmarks": { "Abdul El-Sayed": { "opponent": "Haley Stevens", "expected_remaining_share_points": 49.2334725243315, "expected_final_county_share_points": 49.233472524331496, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.00509747485899, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.00509747485899, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.00509747485899, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 48.00509747485899, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": -12184.225000306502, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": false }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.00509747485899, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.00509747485899, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.00509747485899, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 48.00509747485899, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.658370069574666, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.658370069574666, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.658370069574666, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.024044322225107804, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999973, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 49.31141251753594, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 49.31141251753594, "required_final_county_share_points": 49.31141251753594, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.003259695682198218, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.9999999999999996, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": 1.2283750494725112, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "ABOVE", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.00015372857273016508, "criticality_score": 0.0001251479121105392, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -14354.30291509483, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -1885.2978700366975, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 4632.472012671251, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Haley Stevens": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 46.49050030554237, "expected_final_county_share_points": 46.49050030554237, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 47.71887535501487, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 47.71887535501487, "required_final_county_share_points": 47.71887535501487, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 47.71887535501487, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 12279.948973136376, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 47.71887535501487, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 47.71887535501487, "required_final_county_share_points": 47.71887535501487, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 47.71887535501487, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.372371735927025, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.372371735927025, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.372371735927025, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.07865391656842785, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.999999999999999, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 49.02608552214882, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 49.02608552214882, "required_final_county_share_points": 49.02608552214882, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.10597932088248406, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -1.228375049472504, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.00015372857273016508, "criticality_score": 0.00012514791211053994, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 14450.026887924703, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 26919.03193298283, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 33436.80181569078, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Mallory McMorrow": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 4.2760271701261265, "expected_final_county_share_points": 4.2760271701261265, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 35.29723544216141, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 35.29723544216141, "required_final_county_share_points": 35.29723544216141, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 35.29723544216141, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 294550.04587537836, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 35.29723544216141, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 35.29723544216141, "required_final_county_share_points": 35.29723544216141, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 35.29723544216141, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 35.937432942865264, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 35.937432942865264, "required_final_county_share_points": 35.937432942865264, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.159018308558073, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999906, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 36.575603349208116, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 36.575603349208116, "required_final_county_share_points": 36.575603349208116, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.213613509684069, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.999999999999993, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -31.02120827203528, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "WELL BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.00015372857273016508, "criticality_score": 4.955595906583269e-06, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 14407.812414789287, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 26876.817459847414, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 33394.587342555365, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } } } }, { "cid": "fips:26029", "county": "Charlevoix", "fips": "26029", "reporting": 96.98, "current_votes": 3339, "current_candidate_votes": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 1651, "Haley Stevens": 1527, "Mallory McMorrow": 161 }, "current_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 49.44594189877209, "Haley Stevens": 45.73225516621743, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.821802935010482 }, "estimated_remaining_votes": 160.4771363120394, "estimated_final_votes": 3499.4771363120394, "turnout_disagreement_votes": 2.842170943040401e-14, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 49.43924981923985, "Haley Stevens": 46.031011714043466, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.5297384667166725 }, "remaining_sources": [ { "model": "v3", "remaining_votes": 160.47713631203942, "weight": 0.1342208488636769 }, { "model": "histgeo", "remaining_votes": 160.47713631203942, "weight": 0.05994207394479305 }, { "model": "latent", "remaining_votes": 160.47713631203942, "weight": 0.07672787409296966 }, { "model": "batchbias", "remaining_votes": 160.47713631203942, "weight": 0.045123489075924846 } ], "share_sources": [ { "model": "v0", "weight": 0.03630604611298715, "source": "statewide raw" }, { "model": "v1", "weight": 0.14599140026529184, "source": "county live" }, { "model": "v3", "weight": 0.15004242351696637, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "market", "weight": 0.0786646379365536, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "histgeo", "weight": 0.06573339512824654, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "latent", "weight": 0.08483492578364633, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "batchbias", "weight": 0.04883898267529022, "source": "county remaining" } ], "candidate_benchmarks": { "Abdul El-Sayed": { "opponent": "Haley Stevens", "expected_remaining_share_points": 49.43924981923985, "expected_final_county_share_points": 49.44563501699591, "current_county_share_points": 49.44594189877209, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.21446474971571, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.21446474971571, "required_final_county_share_points": 49.389469483432194, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 48.21446474971571, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": -14337.536746057434, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": false }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.21446474971571, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.21446474971571, "required_final_county_share_points": 49.389469483432194, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 48.21446474971571, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.865883311340504, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.865883311340504, "required_final_county_share_points": 49.41934188471904, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.024044322225107804, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999973, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 49.516947075800104, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 49.516947075800104, "required_final_county_share_points": 49.44919801590872, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.003259695682198218, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.9999999999999996, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": 1.2247850695241382, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "ABOVE", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.00013071767903978, "criticality_score": 0.00010672703504670196, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -16889.62444379068, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -2225.6374221217798, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 5439.4884339411155, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Haley Stevens": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 46.031011714043466, "expected_final_county_share_points": 45.74595538295899, "current_county_share_points": 45.73225516621743, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 47.255796783567604, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 47.255796783567604, "required_final_county_share_points": 45.802120916522696, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 47.255796783567604, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 14433.00700759072, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 47.255796783567604, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 47.255796783567604, "required_final_county_share_points": 45.802120916522696, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 47.255796783567604, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 47.90756396674398, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 47.90756396674398, "required_final_county_share_points": 45.83200930470875, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.07865391656842785, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.999999999999999, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.55967357082501, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.55967357082501, "required_final_county_share_points": 45.861913395448084, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.10597932088248406, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -1.2247850695241382, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.00013071767903978, "criticality_score": 0.00010672703504670196, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 16985.09470532396, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 31649.081726992852, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 39314.20758305576, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Mallory McMorrow": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 4.5297384667166725, "expected_final_county_share_points": 4.80840960004511, "current_county_share_points": 4.821802935010482, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 36.24257063965469, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 36.24257063965469, "required_final_county_share_points": 6.262679564734948, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 36.24257063965469, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 346400.68009157316, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 36.24257063965469, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 36.24257063965469, "required_final_county_share_points": 6.262679564734948, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 36.24257063965469, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 36.87652881205225, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 36.87652881205225, "required_final_county_share_points": 6.291751276903694, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.159018308558073, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999906, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 37.507680426114185, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 37.507680426114185, "required_final_county_share_points": 6.320694287433009, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.213613509684069, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.999999999999993, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -31.712832172938015, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "WELL BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.00013071767903978, "criticality_score": 4.121917535682205e-06, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 16943.593432076636, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 31607.580453745526, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 39272.706309808425, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } } } }, { "cid": "26027", "county": "26027", "fips": null, "reporting": 0.0, "current_votes": 0, "current_candidate_votes": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 0, "Haley Stevens": 0, "Mallory McMorrow": 0 }, "current_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": null, "Haley Stevens": null, "Mallory McMorrow": null }, "estimated_remaining_votes": 98.63631352640779, "estimated_final_votes": 98.63631352640779, "turnout_disagreement_votes": 1.4210854715202004e-14, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 47.325817752519605, "Haley Stevens": 46.180187564996885, "Mallory McMorrow": 6.493994682483506 }, "remaining_sources": [ { "model": "market", "remaining_votes": 98.63631352640778, "weight": 0.1780093144963334 } ], "share_sources": [ { "model": "v0", "weight": 0.03630604611298715, "source": "statewide raw" }, { "model": "v3", "weight": 0.06301781787712588, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "market", "weight": 0.18729675699179427, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "histgeo", "weight": 0.02760802595386354, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "latent", "weight": 0.03563066882913146, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "batchbias", "weight": 0.020512372723621893, "source": "statewide fallback" } ], "candidate_benchmarks": { "Abdul El-Sayed": { "opponent": "Haley Stevens", "expected_remaining_share_points": 47.325817752519605, "expected_final_county_share_points": 47.325817752519605, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 46.12560458796797, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 46.12560458796797, "required_final_county_share_points": 46.12560458796797, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 46.12560458796797, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": -23359.679426722807, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": false }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 46.12560458796797, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 46.12560458796797, "required_final_county_share_points": 46.12560458796797, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 46.12560458796797, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 46.7637742862269, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 46.7637742862269, "required_final_county_share_points": 46.7637742862269, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.024044322225107804, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999973, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 47.40200500570729, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 47.40200500570729, "required_final_county_share_points": 47.40200500570729, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.003259695682198218, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.9999999999999996, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": 1.2002131645516343, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "ABOVE", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 8.034484082605593e-05, "criticality_score": 6.694214261186719e-05, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -27511.81884381251, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -3654.1283034588605, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 8816.70929047672, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Haley Stevens": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 46.180187564996885, "expected_final_county_share_points": 46.180187564996885, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 47.38040072954852, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 47.38040072954852, "required_final_county_share_points": 47.38040072954852, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 47.38040072954852, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 23453.18543204032, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 47.38040072954852, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 47.38040072954852, "required_final_county_share_points": 47.38040072954852, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 47.38040072954852, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.01850308721042, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.01850308721042, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.01850308721042, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.07865391656842785, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.999999999999999, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.65653177631791, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.65653177631791, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.65653177631791, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.10597932088248406, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -1.2002131645516343, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 8.034484082605593e-05, "criticality_score": 6.694214261186719e-05, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 27605.32484913003, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 51463.01538948367, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 63933.85298341925, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Mallory McMorrow": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 6.493994682483506, "expected_final_county_share_points": 6.493994682483506, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 40.5703515304971, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 40.5703515304971, "required_final_county_share_points": 40.5703515304971, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 40.5703515304971, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 563578.4711985796, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 40.5703515304971, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 40.5703515304971, "required_final_county_share_points": 40.5703515304971, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 40.5703515304971, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 41.09993081549383, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 41.09993081549383, "required_final_county_share_points": 41.09993081549383, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.159018308558073, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999906, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 41.622595621184715, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 41.622595621184715, "required_final_county_share_points": 41.622595621184715, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.213613509684069, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.999999999999993, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -34.076356848013596, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "WELL BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 8.034484082605593e-05, "criticality_score": 2.3577884568003476e-06, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 27565.638656247516, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 51423.32919660115, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 63894.166790536736, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } } } }, { "cid": "fips:26097", "county": "Mackinac", "fips": "26097", "reporting": 93.9, "current_votes": 1446, "current_candidate_votes": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 654, "Haley Stevens": 706, "Mallory McMorrow": 86 }, "current_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 45.22821576763486, "Haley Stevens": 48.82434301521438, "Mallory McMorrow": 5.94744121715076 }, "estimated_remaining_votes": 87.37128851475677, "estimated_final_votes": 1533.3712885147568, "turnout_disagreement_votes": 0.0, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 46.381354188279545, "Haley Stevens": 48.27358844789876, "Mallory McMorrow": 5.34505736382171 }, "remaining_sources": [ { "model": "v3", "remaining_votes": 87.37128851475677, "weight": 0.1342208488636769 }, { "model": "histgeo", "remaining_votes": 87.37128851475677, "weight": 0.05994207394479305 }, { "model": "latent", "remaining_votes": 87.37128851475677, "weight": 0.07672787409296966 }, { "model": "batchbias", "remaining_votes": 87.37128851475677, "weight": 0.045123489075924846 } ], "share_sources": [ { "model": "v0", "weight": 0.03630604611298715, "source": "statewide raw" }, { "model": "v1", "weight": 0.14599140026529184, "source": "county live" }, { "model": "v3", "weight": 0.15004242351696637, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "market", "weight": 0.0786646379365536, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "histgeo", "weight": 0.06573339512824654, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "latent", "weight": 0.08483492578364633, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "batchbias", "weight": 0.04883898267529022, "source": "county remaining" } ], "candidate_benchmarks": { "Abdul El-Sayed": { "opponent": "Haley Stevens", "expected_remaining_share_points": 46.381354188279545, "expected_final_county_share_points": 45.29392143879372, "current_county_share_points": 45.22821576763486, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 45.16770155145009, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 45.16770155145009, "required_final_county_share_points": 45.224767675785785, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 45.16770155145009, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": -26378.55465460591, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": false }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 45.16770155145009, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 45.16770155145009, "required_final_county_share_points": 45.224767675785785, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 45.16770155145009, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 45.81276712987843, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 45.81276712987843, "required_final_county_share_points": 45.26152342515057, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.024044322225107804, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999973, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 46.45846238284563, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 46.45846238284563, "required_final_county_share_points": 45.29831505328536, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.003259695682198218, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.9999999999999996, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": 1.2136526368294582, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "ABOVE", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 7.116884256431714e-05, "criticality_score": 5.864020758875321e-05, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -31066.041039566815, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -4132.311617035968, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 9946.42600676119, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Haley Stevens": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 48.27358844789876, "expected_final_county_share_points": 48.792961094500086, "current_county_share_points": 48.82434301521438, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 49.487241084728225, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 49.487241084728225, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.86211485750802, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 49.487241084728225, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 26473.20959724209, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 49.487241084728225, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 49.487241084728225, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.86211485750802, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 49.487241084728225, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 50.131671521172386, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 50.131671521172386, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.8988344165685, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.07865391656842785, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.999999999999999, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 50.77546136018641, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 50.77546136018641, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.93551747447409, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.10597932088248406, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -1.2136526368294653, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 7.116884256431714e-05, "criticality_score": 5.864020758875286e-05, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 31160.695982202993, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 58094.42540473383, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 72173.16302853101, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Mallory McMorrow": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 5.34505736382171, "expected_final_county_share_points": 5.913117466706195, "current_county_share_points": 5.94744121715076, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 37.243766469578084, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 37.243766469578084, "required_final_county_share_points": 7.730701594831414, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 37.243766469578084, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 636240.23621148, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 37.243766469578084, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 37.243766469578084, "required_final_county_share_points": 7.730701594831414, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 37.243766469578084, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 37.797670391809646, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 37.797670391809646, "required_final_county_share_points": 7.762262965362635, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.159018308558073, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999906, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 38.34629608980335, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 38.34629608980335, "required_final_county_share_points": 7.793523583391063, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.213613509684069, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.999999999999993, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -31.898709105756375, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "WELL BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 7.116884256431714e-05, "criticality_score": 2.2310884847523235e-06, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 31117.767451118918, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 58051.496873649754, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 72130.23449744693, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } } } }, { "cid": "26097", "county": "26097", "fips": null, "reporting": 0.0, "current_votes": 0, "current_candidate_votes": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 0, "Haley Stevens": 0, "Mallory McMorrow": 0 }, "current_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": null, "Haley Stevens": null, "Mallory McMorrow": null }, "estimated_remaining_votes": 85.61068472148054, "estimated_final_votes": 85.61068472148054, "turnout_disagreement_votes": 0.0, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 47.313860940306704, "Haley Stevens": 47.89780070134983, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.78833835834347 }, "remaining_sources": [ { "model": "market", "remaining_votes": 85.61068472148054, "weight": 0.1780093144963334 } ], "share_sources": [ { "model": "v0", "weight": 0.03630604611298715, "source": "statewide raw" }, { "model": "v3", "weight": 0.06301781787712588, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "market", "weight": 0.18729675699179427, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "histgeo", "weight": 0.02760802595386354, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "latent", "weight": 0.03563066882913146, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "batchbias", "weight": 0.020512372723621893, "source": "statewide fallback" } ], "candidate_benchmarks": { "Abdul El-Sayed": { "opponent": "Haley Stevens", "expected_remaining_share_points": 47.313860940306704, "expected_final_county_share_points": 47.31386094030671, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 46.09219368951438, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 46.09219368951438, "required_final_county_share_points": 46.09219368951438, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 46.09219368951438, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": -26921.05714928536, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": false }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 46.09219368951438, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 46.09219368951438, "required_final_county_share_points": 46.09219368951438, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 46.09219368951438, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 46.74162726088431, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 46.74162726088431, "required_final_county_share_points": 46.741627260884314, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.024044322225107804, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999973, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 47.39144898923758, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 47.39144898923758, "required_final_county_share_points": 47.39144898923758, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.003259695682198218, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.9999999999999996, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": 1.221667250792322, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "ABOVE", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 6.973473147002268e-05, "criticality_score": 5.708160828965142e-05, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -31704.94279021693, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -4217.314910470668, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 10150.955251766505, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Haley Stevens": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 47.89780070134983, "expected_final_county_share_points": 47.89780070134984, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 49.119467952142145, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 49.119467952142145, "required_final_county_share_points": 49.119467952142145, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 49.119467952142145, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 27016.268810927017, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 49.119467952142145, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 49.119467952142145, "required_final_county_share_points": 49.119467952142145, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 49.119467952142145, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 49.7685072792353, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 49.7685072792353, "required_final_county_share_points": 49.76850727923531, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.07865391656842785, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.999999999999999, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 50.417146278526594, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 50.417146278526594, "required_final_county_share_points": 50.417146278526594, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.10597932088248406, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -1.221667250792315, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 6.973473147002268e-05, "criticality_score": 5.7081608289651754e-05, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 31800.154451858587, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 59287.782331604845, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 73656.05249384203, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Mallory McMorrow": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 4.78833835834347, "expected_final_county_share_points": 4.78833835834347, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 36.11188614129752, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 36.11188614129752, "required_final_county_share_points": 36.11188614129752, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 36.11188614129752, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 649323.9991241287, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 36.11188614129752, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 36.11188614129752, "required_final_county_share_points": 36.11188614129752, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 36.11188614129752, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 36.70143227595383, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 36.70143227595383, "required_final_county_share_points": 36.70143227595383, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.159018308558073, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999906, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 37.28702714416342, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 37.28702714416342, "required_final_county_share_points": 37.28702714416342, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.213613509684069, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.999999999999993, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -31.323547782954048, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "WELL BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 6.973473147002268e-05, "criticality_score": 2.2262718116487304e-06, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 31757.04498951558, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 59244.67286926184, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 73612.94303149902, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } } } }, { "cid": "26107", "county": "26107", "fips": null, "reporting": 0.0, "current_votes": 0, "current_candidate_votes": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 0, "Haley Stevens": 0, "Mallory McMorrow": 0 }, "current_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": null, "Haley Stevens": null, "Mallory McMorrow": null }, "estimated_remaining_votes": 78.31944933675004, "estimated_final_votes": 78.31944933675004, "turnout_disagreement_votes": 0.0, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 47.0912695449292, "Haley Stevens": 48.78440505337972, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.12432540169107 }, "remaining_sources": [ { "model": "market", "remaining_votes": 78.31944933675004, "weight": 0.1780093144963334 } ], "share_sources": [ { "model": "v0", "weight": 0.03630604611298715, "source": "statewide raw" }, { "model": "v3", "weight": 0.06301781787712588, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "market", "weight": 0.18729675699179427, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "histgeo", "weight": 0.02760802595386354, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "latent", "weight": 0.03563066882913146, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "batchbias", "weight": 0.020512372723621893, "source": "statewide fallback" } ], "candidate_benchmarks": { "Abdul El-Sayed": { "opponent": "Haley Stevens", "expected_remaining_share_points": 47.0912695449292, "expected_final_county_share_points": 47.091269544929204, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 45.86178338426582, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 45.86178338426582, "required_final_county_share_points": 45.86178338426582, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 45.86178338426582, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": -29431.929938600668, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": false }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 45.86178338426582, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 45.86178338426582, "required_final_county_share_points": 45.86178338426582, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 45.86178338426582, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 46.51528291014124, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 46.51528291014124, "required_final_county_share_points": 46.51528291014124, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.024044322225107804, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999973, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 47.1693787381431, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 47.1693787381431, "required_final_county_share_points": 47.16937873814311, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.003259695682198218, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.9999999999999996, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": 1.2294861606633773, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "ABOVE", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 6.379560899608066e-05, "criticality_score": 5.18880252882711e-05, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -34661.17668149422, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -4614.557813732066, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 11091.342282211921, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Haley Stevens": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 48.78440505337972, "expected_final_county_share_points": 48.78440505337972, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 50.01389121404309, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 50.01389121404309, "required_final_county_share_points": 50.01389121404309, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 50.01389121404309, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 29527.80561319898, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 50.01389121404309, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 50.01389121404309, "required_final_county_share_points": 50.01389121404309, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 50.01389121404309, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 50.666788780631386, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 50.666788780631386, "required_final_county_share_points": 50.666788780631386, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.07865391656842785, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.999999999999999, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 51.31907874162016, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 51.31907874162016, "required_final_county_share_points": 51.31907874162016, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.10597932088248406, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -1.2294861606633702, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 6.379560899608066e-05, "criticality_score": 5.18880252882714e-05, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 34757.05235609253, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 64803.67122385468, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 80509.57131979866, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Mallory McMorrow": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 4.12432540169107, "expected_final_county_share_points": 4.1243254016910695, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 33.88012237605316, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 33.88012237605316, "required_final_county_share_points": 33.88012237605316, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 33.88012237605316, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 709772.4220973465, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 33.88012237605316, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 33.88012237605316, "required_final_county_share_points": 33.88012237605316, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 33.88012237605316, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 34.49117028649661, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 34.49117028649661, "required_final_county_share_points": 34.49117028649661, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.159018308558073, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999906, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 35.100161871624735, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 35.100161871624735, "required_final_county_share_points": 35.100161871624735, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.213613509684069, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.999999999999993, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -29.755796974362088, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "WELL BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 6.379560899608066e-05, "criticality_score": 2.1439724518569486e-06, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 34712.392276440834, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 64759.01114420299, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 80464.91124014698, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } } } }, { "cid": "fips:26027", "county": "Cass", "fips": "26027", "reporting": 99.0, "current_votes": 3505, "current_candidate_votes": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 1579, "Haley Stevens": 1592, "Mallory McMorrow": 334 }, "current_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 45.049928673323826, "Haley Stevens": 45.42082738944365, "Mallory McMorrow": 9.529243937232525 }, "estimated_remaining_votes": 77.55888915228525, "estimated_final_votes": 3582.5588891522852, "turnout_disagreement_votes": 0.0, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 46.24712406275712, "Haley Stevens": 45.814655588728456, "Mallory McMorrow": 7.938220348514428 }, "remaining_sources": [ { "model": "v3", "remaining_votes": 77.55888915228525, "weight": 0.1342208488636769 }, { "model": "histgeo", "remaining_votes": 77.55888915228525, "weight": 0.05994207394479305 }, { "model": "latent", "remaining_votes": 77.55888915228525, "weight": 0.07672787409296966 }, { "model": "batchbias", "remaining_votes": 77.55888915228525, "weight": 0.045123489075924846 } ], "share_sources": [ { "model": "v0", "weight": 0.03630604611298715, "source": "statewide raw" }, { "model": "v1", "weight": 0.14599140026529184, "source": "county live" }, { "model": "v3", "weight": 0.15004242351696637, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "market", "weight": 0.0786646379365536, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "histgeo", "weight": 0.06573339512824654, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "latent", "weight": 0.08483492578364633, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "batchbias", "weight": 0.04883898267529022, "source": "county remaining" } ], "candidate_benchmarks": { "Abdul El-Sayed": { "opponent": "Haley Stevens", "expected_remaining_share_points": 46.24712406275712, "expected_final_county_share_points": 45.075846780290284, "current_county_share_points": 45.049928673323826, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 45.06552637128383, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 45.06552637128383, "required_final_county_share_points": 45.05026634819939, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 45.06552637128383, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": -29721.852100193802, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": false }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 45.06552637128383, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 45.06552637128383, "required_final_county_share_points": 45.05026634819939, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 45.06552637128383, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 45.6937409089055, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 45.6937409089055, "required_final_county_share_points": 45.06386657730791, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.024044322225107804, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999973, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 46.32214511278043, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 46.32214511278043, "required_final_county_share_points": 45.07747091250496, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.003259695682198218, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.9999999999999996, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": 1.1815976914732929, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "ABOVE", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 6.31760898273812e-05, "criticality_score": 5.3466666601734084e-05, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -35002.37803120948, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -4661.115155025047, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 11198.800585092264, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Haley Stevens": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 45.814655588728456, "expected_final_county_share_points": 45.429353384018604, "current_county_share_points": 45.42082738944365, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 46.99625328020174, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 46.99625328020174, "required_final_county_share_points": 45.4549338161095, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 46.99625328020174, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 29813.91387984529, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 46.99625328020174, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 46.99625328020174, "required_final_county_share_points": 45.4549338161095, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 46.99625328020174, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 47.624272009941315, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 47.624272009941315, "required_final_county_share_points": 45.46852980616926, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.07865391656842785, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.999999999999999, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.25208878681081, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.25208878681081, "required_final_county_share_points": 45.482121424147294, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.10597932088248406, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -1.1815976914732857, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 6.31760898273812e-05, "criticality_score": 5.346666660173441e-05, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 35094.43981086097, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 65435.70268704539, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 81295.6184271627, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Mallory McMorrow": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 7.938220348514428, "expected_final_county_share_points": 9.494799835691111, "current_county_share_points": 9.529243937232525, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 42.967592307350436, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 42.967592307350436, "required_final_county_share_points": 10.253151410889473, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 42.967592307350436, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 716736.3860586612, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 42.967592307350436, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 42.967592307350436, "required_final_county_share_points": 10.253151410889473, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 42.967592307350436, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 43.43827742302718, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 43.43827742302718, "required_final_county_share_points": 10.263341282386893, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.159018308558073, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999906, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 43.90090853299885, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 43.90090853299885, "required_final_county_share_points": 10.273356792553479, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.213613509684069, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.999999999999993, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -35.02937195883601, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "WELL BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 6.31760898273812e-05, "criticality_score": 1.8035176280528576e-06, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 35056.56337562075, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 65397.82625180518, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 81257.74199192249, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } } } }, { "cid": "26113", "county": "26113", "fips": null, "reporting": 0.0, "current_votes": 0, "current_candidate_votes": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 0, "Haley Stevens": 0, "Mallory McMorrow": 0 }, "current_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": null, "Haley Stevens": null, "Mallory McMorrow": null }, "estimated_remaining_votes": 70.66382028501641, "estimated_final_votes": 70.66382028501641, "turnout_disagreement_votes": 0.0, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 43.718092967741406, "Haley Stevens": 51.20805675302659, "Mallory McMorrow": 5.073850279232022 }, "remaining_sources": [ { "model": "market", "remaining_votes": 70.66382028501641, "weight": 0.1780093144963334 } ], "share_sources": [ { "model": "v0", "weight": 0.03630604611298715, "source": "statewide raw" }, { "model": "v3", "weight": 0.06301781787712588, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "market", "weight": 0.18729675699179427, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "histgeo", "weight": 0.02760802595386354, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "latent", "weight": 0.03563066882913146, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "batchbias", "weight": 0.020512372723621893, "source": "statewide fallback" } ], "candidate_benchmarks": { "Abdul El-Sayed": { "opponent": "Haley Stevens", "expected_remaining_share_points": 43.718092967741406, "expected_final_county_share_points": 43.718092967741406, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 42.509882863161586, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 42.509882863161586, "required_final_county_share_points": 42.509882863161586, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 42.509882863161586, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": -32629.023045228183, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": false }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 42.509882863161586, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 42.509882863161586, "required_final_county_share_points": 42.509882863161586, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 42.509882863161586, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 43.15160132720069, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 43.15160132720069, "required_final_county_share_points": 43.15160132720069, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.024044322225107804, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999973, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 43.79497877265758, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 43.79497877265758, "required_final_county_share_points": 43.79497877265758, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.003259695682198218, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.9999999999999996, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": 1.2082101045798197, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "ABOVE", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 5.755966732719225e-05, "criticality_score": 4.764044524127683e-05, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -38424.799776482236, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -5122.968165018729, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 12284.489313092865, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Haley Stevens": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 51.20805675302659, "expected_final_county_share_points": 51.20805675302659, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 52.416266857606416, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 52.416266857606416, "required_final_county_share_points": 52.416266857606416, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 52.416266857606416, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 32723.94919494895, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 52.416266857606416, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 52.416266857606416, "required_final_county_share_points": 52.416266857606416, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 52.416266857606416, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 53.05632640895127, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 53.05632640895127, "required_final_county_share_points": 53.05632640895127, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.07865391656842785, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.999999999999999, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 53.69472713754651, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 53.69472713754651, "required_final_county_share_points": 53.69472713754651, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.10597932088248406, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -1.2082101045798268, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 5.755966732719225e-05, "criticality_score": 4.764044524127655e-05, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 38519.725926203006, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 71821.55753766651, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 89229.0150157781, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Mallory McMorrow": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 5.073850279232022, "expected_final_county_share_points": 5.073850279232021, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 35.200272937103406, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 35.200272937103406, "required_final_county_share_points": 35.200272937103406, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 35.200272937103406, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 786668.7726705396, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 35.200272937103406, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 35.200272937103406, "required_final_county_share_points": 35.200272937103406, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 35.200272937103406, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 35.721087669136104, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 35.721087669136104, "required_final_county_share_points": 35.721087669136104, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.159018308558073, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999906, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 36.23686195986374, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 36.23686195986374, "required_final_county_share_points": 36.23686195986374, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.213613509684069, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.999999999999993, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -30.126422657871384, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "WELL BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 5.755966732719225e-05, "criticality_score": 1.9106041225294023e-06, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 38473.59171972921, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 71775.42333119272, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 89182.88080930432, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } } } }, { "cid": "fips:26113", "county": "Missaukee", "fips": "26113", "reporting": 93.37, "current_votes": 943, "current_candidate_votes": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 352, "Haley Stevens": 529, "Mallory McMorrow": 62 }, "current_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 37.32767762460234, "Haley Stevens": 56.09756097560976, "Mallory McMorrow": 6.574761399787911 }, "estimated_remaining_votes": 70.12569231661234, "estimated_final_votes": 1013.1256923166123, "turnout_disagreement_votes": 0.0, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 40.657502642669314, "Haley Stevens": 53.542604317253236, "Mallory McMorrow": 5.799893040077455 }, "remaining_sources": [ { "model": "v3", "remaining_votes": 70.12569231661234, "weight": 0.1342208488636769 }, { "model": "histgeo", "remaining_votes": 70.12569231661234, "weight": 0.05994207394479305 }, { "model": "latent", "remaining_votes": 70.12569231661234, "weight": 0.07672787409296966 }, { "model": "batchbias", "remaining_votes": 70.12569231661234, "weight": 0.045123489075924846 } ], "share_sources": [ { "model": "v0", "weight": 0.03630604611298715, "source": "statewide raw" }, { "model": "v1", "weight": 0.14599140026529184, "source": "county live" }, { "model": "v3", "weight": 0.15004242351696637, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "market", "weight": 0.0786646379365536, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "histgeo", "weight": 0.06573339512824654, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "latent", "weight": 0.08483492578364633, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "batchbias", "weight": 0.04883898267529022, "source": "county remaining" } ], "candidate_benchmarks": { "Abdul El-Sayed": { "opponent": "Haley Stevens", "expected_remaining_share_points": 40.657502642669314, "expected_final_county_share_points": 37.55815868579345, "current_county_share_points": 37.32767762460234, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 39.475348273945855, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 39.475348273945855, "required_final_county_share_points": 37.47633330700725, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 39.475348273945855, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": -32882.80651942168, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": false }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 39.475348273945855, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 39.475348273945855, "required_final_county_share_points": 37.47633330700725, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 39.475348273945855, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 40.10279153864242, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 40.10279153864242, "required_final_county_share_points": 37.51976315353067, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.024044322225107804, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999973, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 40.732849006514385, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 40.732849006514385, "required_final_county_share_points": 37.56337394779722, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.003259695682198218, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.9999999999999996, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": 1.1821543687234595, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "ABOVE", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 5.7121331744487225e-05, "criticality_score": 4.831968925189463e-05, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -38723.05866980786, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -5165.676683051074, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 12375.36150447417, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Haley Stevens": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 53.542604317253236, "expected_final_county_share_points": 55.920714108666225, "current_county_share_points": 56.09756097560976, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 54.724758685976695, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 54.724758685976695, "required_final_county_share_points": 56.00253948745243, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 54.724758685976695, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 32977.006626381604, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 54.724758685976695, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 54.724758685976695, "required_final_county_share_points": 56.00253948745243, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 54.724758685976695, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 55.34959779983686, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 55.34959779983686, "required_final_county_share_points": 56.04578908202716, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.07865391656842785, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.999999999999999, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 55.97184277241885, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 55.97184277241885, "required_final_county_share_points": 56.0888591174865, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.10597932088248406, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -1.1821543687234595, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 5.7121331744487225e-05, "criticality_score": 4.831968925189463e-05, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 38817.25877676779, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 72374.64076352456, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 89915.67895104982, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Mallory McMorrow": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 5.799893040077455, "expected_final_county_share_points": 6.5211272055403215, "current_county_share_points": 6.574761399787911, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 35.35192401567291, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 35.35192401567291, "required_final_county_share_points": 8.566635129425812, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 35.35192401567291, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 792706.1697831858, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 35.35192401567291, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 35.35192401567291, "required_final_county_share_points": 8.566635129425812, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 35.35192401567291, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 35.79984056686932, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 35.79984056686932, "required_final_county_share_points": 8.59763864507143, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.159018308558073, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999906, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 36.24157679608795, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 36.24157679608795, "required_final_county_share_points": 8.628214376325916, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.213613509684069, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.999999999999993, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -29.55203097559545, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "WELL BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 5.7121331744487225e-05, "criticality_score": 1.932907142377421e-06, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 38769.516065490614, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 72326.89805224739, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 89867.93623977265, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } } } }, { "cid": "fips:26107", "county": "Mecosta", "fips": "26107", "reporting": 98.54, "current_votes": 3431, "current_candidate_votes": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 1535, "Haley Stevens": 1742, "Mallory McMorrow": 154 }, "current_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 44.7391431069659, "Haley Stevens": 50.77236957155349, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.488487321480618 }, "estimated_remaining_votes": 69.15789552562957, "estimated_final_votes": 3500.1578955256296, "turnout_disagreement_votes": 1.4210854715202004e-14, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 46.03660360279086, "Haley Stevens": 49.67528155502004, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.288114842189099 }, "remaining_sources": [ { "model": "v3", "remaining_votes": 69.15789552562956, "weight": 0.1342208488636769 }, { "model": "histgeo", "remaining_votes": 69.15789552562956, "weight": 0.05994207394479305 }, { "model": "latent", "remaining_votes": 69.15789552562956, "weight": 0.07672787409296966 }, { "model": "batchbias", "remaining_votes": 69.15789552562956, "weight": 0.045123489075924846 } ], "share_sources": [ { "model": "v0", "weight": 0.03630604611298715, "source": "statewide raw" }, { "model": "v1", "weight": 0.14599140026529184, "source": "county live" }, { "model": "v3", "weight": 0.15004242351696637, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "market", "weight": 0.0786646379365536, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "histgeo", "weight": 0.06573339512824654, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "latent", "weight": 0.08483492578364633, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "batchbias", "weight": 0.04883898267529022, "source": "county remaining" } ], "candidate_benchmarks": { "Abdul El-Sayed": { "opponent": "Haley Stevens", "expected_remaining_share_points": 46.03660360279086, "expected_final_county_share_points": 44.764778989716675, "current_county_share_points": 44.7391431069659, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 44.81124939760961, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 44.81124939760961, "required_final_county_share_points": 44.74056781963999, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 44.81124939760961, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": -33338.15894573573, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": false }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 44.81124939760961, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 44.81124939760961, "required_final_county_share_points": 44.74056781963999, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 44.81124939760961, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 45.462393377679874, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 45.462393377679874, "required_final_county_share_points": 44.75343345275998, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.024044322225107804, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999973, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 46.11449353500543, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 46.11449353500543, "required_final_county_share_points": 44.76631797851528, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.003259695682198218, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.9999999999999996, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": 1.2253542051812545, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "ABOVE", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 5.633300667085539e-05, "criticality_score": 4.597283498327131e-05, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -39260.139686136325, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -5233.155113098833, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 12553.352667440588, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Haley Stevens": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 49.67528155502004, "expected_final_county_share_points": 50.75069274990871, "current_county_share_points": 50.77236957155349, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 50.9006357602013, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 50.9006357602013, "required_final_county_share_points": 50.77490391998539, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 50.9006357602013, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 33433.870830893546, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 50.9006357602013, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 50.9006357602013, "required_final_county_share_points": 50.77490391998539, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 50.9006357602013, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 51.55081922102555, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 51.55081922102555, "required_final_county_share_points": 50.78775057467879, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.07865391656842785, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.999999999999999, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 52.20003784099687, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 52.20003784099687, "required_final_county_share_points": 50.8005781655571, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.10597932088248406, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -1.2253542051812545, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 5.633300667085539e-05, "criticality_score": 4.597283498327131e-05, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 39355.85157129414, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 73382.83614433161, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 91169.34392487103, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Mallory McMorrow": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 4.288114842189099, "expected_final_county_share_points": 4.484528260374612, "current_county_share_points": 4.488487321480618, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 33.977813559867826, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 33.977813559867826, "required_final_county_share_points": 5.0711523908829585, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 33.977813559867826, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 803797.7207472778, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 33.977813559867826, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 33.977813559867826, "required_final_county_share_points": 5.0711523908829585, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 33.977813559867826, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 34.56547966118618, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 34.56547966118618, "required_final_county_share_points": 5.082763795868682, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.159018308558073, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999906, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 35.150318703529805, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 35.150318703529805, "required_final_county_share_points": 5.094319342388859, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.213613509684069, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.999999999999993, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -29.689698717678727, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "WELL BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 5.633300667085539e-05, "criticality_score": 1.8973923314793324e-06, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 39310.464404581304, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 73337.44897761878, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 91123.95675815821, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } } } }, { "cid": "fips:26001", "county": "Alcona", "fips": "26001", "reporting": 96.49, "current_votes": 1237, "current_candidate_votes": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 518, "Haley Stevens": 618, "Mallory McMorrow": 101 }, "current_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 41.875505254648345, "Haley Stevens": 49.95957962813258, "Mallory McMorrow": 8.164915117219078 }, "estimated_remaining_votes": 44.60802981852043, "estimated_final_votes": 1281.6080298185204, "turnout_disagreement_votes": 7.105427357601002e-15, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 43.94145388169189, "Haley Stevens": 49.10657576191287, "Mallory McMorrow": 6.95197035639523 }, "remaining_sources": [ { "model": "v3", "remaining_votes": 44.608029818520436, "weight": 0.1342208488636769 }, { "model": "histgeo", "remaining_votes": 44.608029818520436, "weight": 0.05994207394479305 }, { "model": "latent", "remaining_votes": 44.608029818520436, "weight": 0.07672787409296966 }, { "model": "batchbias", "remaining_votes": 44.608029818520436, "weight": 0.045123489075924846 } ], "share_sources": [ { "model": "v0", "weight": 0.03630604611298715, "source": "statewide raw" }, { "model": "v1", "weight": 0.14599140026529184, "source": "county live" }, { "model": "v3", "weight": 0.15004242351696637, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "market", "weight": 0.0786646379365536, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "histgeo", "weight": 0.06573339512824654, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "latent", "weight": 0.08483492578364633, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "batchbias", "weight": 0.04883898267529022, "source": "county remaining" } ], "candidate_benchmarks": { "Abdul El-Sayed": { "opponent": "Haley Stevens", "expected_remaining_share_points": 43.94145388169189, "expected_final_county_share_points": 41.94741327630122, "current_county_share_points": 41.875505254648345, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 42.75268882707857, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 42.75268882707857, "required_final_county_share_points": 41.906036766658936, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 42.75268882707857, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": -51713.12375166965, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": false }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 42.75268882707857, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 42.75268882707857, "required_final_county_share_points": 41.906036766658936, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 42.75268882707857, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 43.384256852417806, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 43.384256852417806, "required_final_county_share_points": 41.92801931097145, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.024044322225107804, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999973, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 44.017054066842476, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 44.017054066842476, "required_final_county_share_points": 41.950044638804435, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.003259695682198218, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.9999999999999996, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": 1.1887650546133202, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "ABOVE", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 3.63357563477211e-05, "criticality_score": 3.0565969454359796e-05, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -60894.24488648779, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -8140.6340740838605, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 19434.613069909876, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Haley Stevens": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 49.10657576191287, "expected_final_county_share_points": 49.92988972215951, "current_county_share_points": 49.95957962813258, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 50.2953408165262, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 50.2953408165262, "required_final_county_share_points": 49.97126623180179, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 50.2953408165262, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 51806.17178131326, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 50.2953408165262, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 50.2953408165262, "required_final_county_share_points": 49.97126623180179, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 50.2953408165262, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 50.92567698545625, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 50.92567698545625, "required_final_county_share_points": 49.99320589975417, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.07865391656842785, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.999999999999999, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 51.55477865435113, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 51.55477865435113, "required_final_county_share_points": 50.015102599331584, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.10597932088248406, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -1.1887650546133273, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 3.63357563477211e-05, "criticality_score": 3.056596945435961e-05, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 60987.292916131395, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 113740.9037285353, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 141316.15087252908, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Mallory McMorrow": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 6.95197035639523, "expected_final_county_share_points": 8.122697001539272, "current_county_share_points": 8.164915117219078, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 39.6597924080381, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 39.6597924080381, "required_final_county_share_points": 9.26113517251823, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 39.6597924080381, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1246165.1540773183, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 39.6597924080381, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 39.6597924080381, "required_final_county_share_points": 9.26113517251823, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 39.6597924080381, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 40.123334744010954, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 40.123334744010954, "required_final_county_share_points": 9.277269364770563, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.159018308558073, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999906, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 40.57960128626309, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 40.57960128626309, "required_final_county_share_points": 9.293150313585201, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.213613509684069, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.999999999999993, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -32.70782205164287, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "WELL BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 3.63357563477211e-05, "criticality_score": 1.1109194702829807e-06, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 60945.13831072587, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 113698.74912312979, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 141273.99626712356, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } } } }, { "cid": "26001", "county": "26001", "fips": null, "reporting": 0.0, "current_votes": 0, "current_candidate_votes": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 0, "Haley Stevens": 0, "Mallory McMorrow": 0 }, "current_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": null, "Haley Stevens": null, "Mallory McMorrow": null }, "estimated_remaining_votes": 44.41297746692453, "estimated_final_votes": 44.41297746692453, "turnout_disagreement_votes": 0.0, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 45.77032834674376, "Haley Stevens": 48.359122176595065, "Mallory McMorrow": 5.870549476661171 }, "remaining_sources": [ { "model": "market", "remaining_votes": 44.41297746692453, "weight": 0.1780093144963334 } ], "share_sources": [ { "model": "v0", "weight": 0.03630604611298715, "source": "statewide raw" }, { "model": "v3", "weight": 0.06301781787712588, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "market", "weight": 0.18729675699179427, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "histgeo", "weight": 0.02760802595386354, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "latent", "weight": 0.03563066882913146, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "batchbias", "weight": 0.020512372723621893, "source": "statewide fallback" } ], "candidate_benchmarks": { "Abdul El-Sayed": { "opponent": "Haley Stevens", "expected_remaining_share_points": 45.77032834674376, "expected_final_county_share_points": 45.77032834674376, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 44.56407668701315, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 44.56407668701315, "required_final_county_share_points": 44.56407668701315, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 44.56407668701315, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": -51938.60090025977, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": false }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 44.56407668701315, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 44.56407668701315, "required_final_county_share_points": 44.56407668701315, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 44.56407668701315, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 45.20515071393028, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 45.20515071393028, "required_final_county_share_points": 45.20515071393028, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.024044322225107804, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999973, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 45.8469820345517, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 45.8469820345517, "required_final_county_share_points": 45.846982034551694, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.003259695682198218, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.9999999999999996, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": 1.2062516597306114, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "ABOVE", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 3.617687520566053e-05, "criticality_score": 2.9991150614242308e-05, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -61160.04356652592, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -8174.750114699829, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 19521.60165024123, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Haley Stevens": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 48.359122176595065, "expected_final_county_share_points": 48.359122176595065, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 49.56537383632567, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 49.56537383632567, "required_final_county_share_points": 49.565373836325676, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 49.56537383632567, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 52032.73035078311, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 49.56537383632567, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 49.56537383632567, "required_final_county_share_points": 49.565373836325676, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 49.56537383632567, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 50.20568556244268, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 50.20568556244268, "required_final_county_share_points": 50.20568556244268, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.07865391656842785, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.999999999999999, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 50.845229996395126, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 50.845229996395126, "required_final_county_share_points": 50.845229996395126, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.10597932088248406, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -1.2062516597306043, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 3.617687520566053e-05, "criticality_score": 2.9991150614242484e-05, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 61254.17301704926, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 114239.46646887533, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 141935.8182338164, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Mallory McMorrow": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 5.870549476661171, "expected_final_county_share_points": 5.870549476661171, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 38.26983900705061, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 38.26983900705061, "required_final_county_share_points": 38.26983900705061, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 38.26983900705061, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1251636.9344559538, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 38.26983900705061, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 38.26983900705061, "required_final_county_share_points": 38.26983900705061, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 38.26983900705061, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 38.79559940409831, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 38.79559940409831, "required_final_county_share_points": 38.79559940409832, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.159018308558073, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999906, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 39.31519268020871, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 39.31519268020871, "required_final_county_share_points": 39.3151926802087, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.213613509684069, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.999999999999993, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -32.39928953038944, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "WELL BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 3.617687520566053e-05, "criticality_score": 1.1165947071687434e-06, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 61211.684444349325, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 114196.97789617539, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 141893.32966111644, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } } } }, { "cid": "26083", "county": "26083", "fips": null, "reporting": 0.0, "current_votes": 0, "current_candidate_votes": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 0, "Haley Stevens": 0, "Mallory McMorrow": 0 }, "current_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": null, "Haley Stevens": null, "Mallory McMorrow": null }, "estimated_remaining_votes": 35.8563472124265, "estimated_final_votes": 35.8563472124265, "turnout_disagreement_votes": 0.0, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 50.54534280267319, "Haley Stevens": 44.552768807264314, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.901888390062494 }, "remaining_sources": [ { "model": "market", "remaining_votes": 35.8563472124265, "weight": 0.1780093144963334 } ], "share_sources": [ { "model": "v0", "weight": 0.03630604611298715, "source": "statewide raw" }, { "model": "v3", "weight": 0.06301781787712588, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "market", "weight": 0.18729675699179427, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "histgeo", "weight": 0.02760802595386354, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "latent", "weight": 0.03563066882913146, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "batchbias", "weight": 0.020512372723621893, "source": "statewide fallback" } ], "candidate_benchmarks": { "Abdul El-Sayed": { "opponent": "Haley Stevens", "expected_remaining_share_points": 50.54534280267319, "expected_final_county_share_points": 50.54534280267318, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 49.32777143483561, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 49.32777143483561, "required_final_county_share_points": 49.32777143483562, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 49.32777143483561, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": -64339.190017864654, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": false }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 49.32777143483561, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 49.32777143483561, "required_final_county_share_points": 49.32777143483562, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 49.32777143483561, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 49.97556610001704, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 49.97556610001704, "required_final_county_share_points": 49.97556610001704, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.024044322225107804, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999973, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 50.62252480183776, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 50.62252480183776, "required_final_county_share_points": 50.62252480183776, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.003259695682198218, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.9999999999999996, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": 1.2175713678375786, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "ABOVE", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 2.920701723726636e-05, "criticality_score": 2.3987930407018664e-05, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -75761.20472904183, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -10131.690651300216, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 24174.019285211187, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Haley Stevens": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 44.552768807264314, "expected_final_county_share_points": 44.552768807264314, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 45.7703401751019, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 45.7703401751019, "required_final_county_share_points": 45.7703401751019, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 45.7703401751019, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 64434.288129474604, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 45.7703401751019, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 45.7703401751019, "required_final_county_share_points": 45.7703401751019, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 45.7703401751019, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 46.41896598801332, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 46.41896598801332, "required_final_county_share_points": 46.41896598801332, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.07865391656842785, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.999999999999999, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 47.06841809269153, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 47.06841809269153, "required_final_county_share_points": 47.06841809269153, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.10597932088248406, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -1.2175713678375857, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 2.920701723726636e-05, "criticality_score": 2.3987930407018525e-05, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 75856.30284065176, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 141485.81691839336, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 175791.52685490478, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Mallory McMorrow": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 4.901888390062494, "expected_final_county_share_points": 4.901888390062494, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 37.923422838201105, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 37.923422838201105, "required_final_county_share_points": 37.923422838201105, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 37.923422838201105, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1550320.7193042855, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 37.923422838201105, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 37.923422838201105, "required_final_county_share_points": 37.923422838201105, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 37.923422838201105, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 38.56129569024896, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 38.56129569024896, "required_final_county_share_points": 38.56129569024896, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.159018308558073, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999906, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 39.19550814893862, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 39.19550814893862, "required_final_county_share_points": 39.19550814893862, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.213613509684069, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.999999999999993, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -33.02153444813861, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "WELL BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 2.920701723726636e-05, "criticality_score": 8.844839504092982e-07, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 75816.65196023455, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 141446.16603797616, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 175751.87597448757, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } } } }, { "cid": "fips:26083", "county": "Keweenaw", "fips": "26083", "reporting": 92.62, "current_votes": 414, "current_candidate_votes": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 216, "Haley Stevens": 173, "Mallory McMorrow": 25 }, "current_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 52.17391304347826, "Haley Stevens": 41.78743961352657, "Mallory McMorrow": 6.038647342995169 }, "estimated_remaining_votes": 35.70628898706627, "estimated_final_votes": 449.7062889870663, "turnout_disagreement_votes": 0.0, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 51.414155854246644, "Haley Stevens": 43.17512027896332, "Mallory McMorrow": 5.410723866790038 }, "remaining_sources": [ { "model": "v3", "remaining_votes": 35.70628898706627, "weight": 0.1342208488636769 }, { "model": "histgeo", "remaining_votes": 35.70628898706627, "weight": 0.05994207394479305 }, { "model": "latent", "remaining_votes": 35.70628898706627, "weight": 0.07672787409296966 }, { "model": "batchbias", "remaining_votes": 35.70628898706627, "weight": 0.045123489075924846 } ], "share_sources": [ { "model": "v0", "weight": 0.03630604611298715, "source": "statewide raw" }, { "model": "v1", "weight": 0.14599140026529184, "source": "county live" }, { "model": "v3", "weight": 0.15004242351696637, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "market", "weight": 0.0786646379365536, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "histgeo", "weight": 0.06573339512824654, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "latent", "weight": 0.08483492578364633, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "batchbias", "weight": 0.04883898267529022, "source": "county remaining" } ], "candidate_benchmarks": { "Abdul El-Sayed": { "opponent": "Haley Stevens", "expected_remaining_share_points": 51.414155854246644, "expected_final_county_share_points": 52.11358898214523, "current_county_share_points": 52.17391304347826, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 50.206748338556984, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 50.206748338556984, "required_final_county_share_points": 52.01772187346529, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 50.206748338556984, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": -64608.92365871508, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": false }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 50.206748338556984, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 50.206748338556984, "required_final_county_share_points": 52.01772187346529, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 50.206748338556984, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 50.84932166421034, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 50.84932166421034, "required_final_county_share_points": 52.06874163774932, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.024044322225107804, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999973, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 51.49064316406017, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 51.49064316406017, "required_final_county_share_points": 52.119662008151145, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.003259695682198218, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.9999999999999996, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": 1.2074075156896598, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "ABOVE", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 2.908478634886257e-05, "criticality_score": 2.4088624570346173e-05, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -76078.94020111645, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -10173.61341101689, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 24276.268717532173, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Haley Stevens": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 43.17512027896332, "expected_final_county_share_points": 41.89762025381394, "current_county_share_points": 41.78743961352657, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 44.38252779465299, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 44.38252779465299, "required_final_county_share_points": 41.993487362493866, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 44.38252779465299, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 64703.51293484829, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 44.38252779465299, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 44.38252779465299, "required_final_county_share_points": 41.993487362493866, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 44.38252779465299, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 45.02635022354158, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 45.02635022354158, "required_final_county_share_points": 42.04460630449049, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.07865391656842785, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.999999999999999, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 45.67141898629111, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 45.67141898629111, "required_final_county_share_points": 42.095824204313836, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.10597932088248406, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -1.2074075156896669, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 2.908478634886257e-05, "criticality_score": 2.408862457034603e-05, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 76173.52947724966, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 142078.8562673492, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 176528.73839589828, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Mallory McMorrow": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 5.410723866790038, "expected_final_county_share_points": 5.988790764040837, "current_county_share_points": 6.038647342995169, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 39.854050999225315, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 39.854050999225315, "required_final_county_share_points": 8.723561040518259, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 39.854050999225315, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1556836.5409014327, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 39.854050999225315, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 39.854050999225315, "required_final_county_share_points": 8.723561040518259, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 39.854050999225315, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 40.486918980266964, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 40.486918980266964, "required_final_county_share_points": 8.773810208864633, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.159018308558073, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999906, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 41.114995823411356, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 41.114995823411356, "required_final_county_share_points": 8.823678965020816, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.213613509684069, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.999999999999993, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -34.44332713243528, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "WELL BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 2.908478634886257e-05, "criticality_score": 8.444244145471483e-07, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 76135.76508083749, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 142041.09187093703, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 176490.9739994861, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } } } }, { "cid": "26133", "county": "26133", "fips": null, "reporting": 0.0, "current_votes": 0, "current_candidate_votes": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 0, "Haley Stevens": 0, "Mallory McMorrow": 0 }, "current_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": null, "Haley Stevens": null, "Mallory McMorrow": null }, "estimated_remaining_votes": 20.765896460573458, "estimated_final_votes": 20.765896460573458, "turnout_disagreement_votes": 0.0, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 45.09658156322723, "Haley Stevens": 49.80898453019564, "Mallory McMorrow": 5.094433906577141 }, "remaining_sources": [ { "model": "market", "remaining_votes": 20.765896460573458, "weight": 0.1780093144963334 } ], "share_sources": [ { "model": "v0", "weight": 0.03630604611298715, "source": "statewide raw" }, { "model": "v3", "weight": 0.06301781787712588, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "market", "weight": 0.18729675699179427, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "histgeo", "weight": 0.02760802595386354, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "latent", "weight": 0.03563066882913146, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "batchbias", "weight": 0.020512372723621893, "source": "statewide fallback" } ], "candidate_benchmarks": { "Abdul El-Sayed": { "opponent": "Haley Stevens", "expected_remaining_share_points": 45.09658156322723, "expected_final_county_share_points": 45.09658156322723, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 43.88315370763939, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 43.88315370763939, "required_final_county_share_points": 43.88315370763939, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 43.88315370763939, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": -111136.26813302236, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": false }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 43.88315370763939, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 43.88315370763939, "required_final_county_share_points": 43.88315370763939, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 43.88315370763939, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 44.52786996707626, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 44.52786996707626, "required_final_county_share_points": 44.52786996707626, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.024044322225107804, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999973, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 45.173737872771454, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 45.173737872771454, "required_final_county_share_points": 45.173737872771454, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.003259695682198218, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.9999999999999996, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": 1.2134278555878453, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "ABOVE", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 1.691499394174383e-05, "criticality_score": 1.393984311786658e-05, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -130858.59151679727, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -17536.508426272667, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 41698.95242598537, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Haley Stevens": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 49.80898453019564, "expected_final_county_share_points": 49.80898453019564, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 51.022412385783475, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 51.022412385783475, "required_final_county_share_points": 51.022412385783475, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 51.022412385783475, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 111231.17369911578, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 51.022412385783475, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 51.022412385783475, "required_final_county_share_points": 51.022412385783475, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 51.022412385783475, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 51.665973699583475, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 51.665973699583475, "required_final_county_share_points": 51.665973699583475, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.07865391656842785, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.999999999999999, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 52.3083767917272, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 52.3083767917272, "required_final_county_share_points": 52.3083767917272, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.10597932088248406, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -1.2134278555878382, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 1.691499394174383e-05, "criticality_score": 1.3939843117866663e-05, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 130953.4970828907, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 244275.58017341525, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 303511.04102567333, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Mallory McMorrow": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 5.094433906577141, "expected_final_county_share_points": 5.09443390657714, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 35.93569516939837, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 35.93569516939837, "required_final_county_share_points": 35.93569516939837, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 35.93569516939837, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 2676925.9942237562, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 35.93569516939837, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 35.93569516939837, "required_final_county_share_points": 35.93569516939837, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 35.93569516939837, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 36.47796503384312, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 36.47796503384312, "required_final_county_share_points": 36.47796503384312, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.159018308558073, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999906, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 37.015296823645016, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 37.015296823645016, "required_final_county_share_points": 37.015296823645016, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.213613509684069, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.999999999999993, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -30.84126126282123, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "WELL BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 1.691499394174383e-05, "criticality_score": 5.484533786604457e-07, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 130908.78253226707, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 244230.86562279164, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 303466.3264750497, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } } } }, { "cid": "fips:26133", "county": "Osceola", "fips": "26133", "reporting": 99.0, "current_votes": 1571, "current_candidate_votes": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 634, "Haley Stevens": 833, "Mallory McMorrow": 104 }, "current_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 40.3564608529599, "Haley Stevens": 53.02355187778485, "Mallory McMorrow": 6.619987269255251 }, "estimated_remaining_votes": 19.133493263277842, "estimated_final_votes": 1590.1334932632778, "turnout_disagreement_votes": 0.0, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 42.84098377218572, "Haley Stevens": 51.316005385995645, "Mallory McMorrow": 5.8430108418186455 }, "remaining_sources": [ { "model": "v3", "remaining_votes": 19.133493263277842, "weight": 0.1342208488636769 }, { "model": "histgeo", "remaining_votes": 19.133493263277842, "weight": 0.05994207394479305 }, { "model": "latent", "remaining_votes": 19.133493263277842, "weight": 0.07672787409296966 }, { "model": "batchbias", "remaining_votes": 19.133493263277842, "weight": 0.045123489075924846 } ], "share_sources": [ { "model": "v0", "weight": 0.03630604611298715, "source": "statewide raw" }, { "model": "v1", "weight": 0.14599140026529184, "source": "county live" }, { "model": "v3", "weight": 0.15004242351696637, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "market", "weight": 0.0786646379365536, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "histgeo", "weight": 0.06573339512824654, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "latent", "weight": 0.08483492578364633, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "batchbias", "weight": 0.04883898267529022, "source": "county remaining" } ], "candidate_benchmarks": { "Abdul El-Sayed": { "opponent": "Haley Stevens", "expected_remaining_share_points": 42.84098377218572, "expected_final_county_share_points": 40.38635620623612, "current_county_share_points": 40.3564608529599, "recent_batch_votes": 228, "recent_batch_share_points": 39.473684210526315, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 41.645166002780186, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 41.645166002780186, "required_final_county_share_points": 40.37196736949257, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 41.645166002780186, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": -120624.1316510417, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": false }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 41.645166002780186, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 41.645166002780186, "required_final_county_share_points": 40.37196736949257, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 41.645166002780186, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 42.28021779737176, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 42.28021779737176, "required_final_county_share_points": 40.37960871487969, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.024044322225107804, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999973, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 42.917104004229515, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 42.917104004229515, "required_final_county_share_points": 40.38727213307697, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.003259695682198218, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.9999999999999996, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": 1.1958177694055365, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -2.1714817922538714, "status": "ABOVE", "recent_status": "BELOW", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 1.5585309463871013e-05, "criticality_score": 1.3033181026920818e-05, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -142029.09517306875, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -19038.76550489435, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 45250.459150865805, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Haley Stevens": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 51.316005385995645, "expected_final_county_share_points": 53.003005596962645, "current_county_share_points": 53.02355187778485, "recent_batch_votes": 228, "recent_batch_share_points": 53.94736842105263, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 52.51182315540118, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 52.51182315540118, "required_final_county_share_points": 53.0173944337062, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 52.51182315540118, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 120718.28864019987, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 52.51182315540118, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 52.51182315540118, "required_final_county_share_points": 53.0173944337062, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 52.51182315540118, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 53.14504218080076, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 53.14504218080076, "required_final_county_share_points": 53.02501372605366, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.07865391656842785, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.999999999999999, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 53.776430095742114, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 53.776430095742114, "required_final_county_share_points": 53.032610985320396, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.10597932088248406, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -1.1958177694055365, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": 1.4355452656514487, "status": "BELOW", "recent_status": "ABOVE", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 1.5585309463871013e-05, "criticality_score": 1.3033181026920818e-05, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 142123.25216222694, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 265113.5818304013, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 329402.8064861615, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Mallory McMorrow": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 5.8430108418186455, "expected_final_county_share_points": 6.610638196801229, "current_county_share_points": 6.619987269255251, "recent_batch_votes": 228, "recent_batch_share_points": 6.578947368421052, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 36.643946502032115, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 36.643946502032115, "required_final_county_share_points": 6.9812545616876305, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 36.643946502032115, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 2905312.3374015074, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 36.643946502032115, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 36.643946502032115, "required_final_county_share_points": 6.9812545616876305, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 36.643946502032115, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 37.12449412248782, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 37.12449412248782, "required_final_county_share_points": 6.9870368150000886, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.159018308558073, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999906, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 37.598823834433134, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 37.598823834433134, "required_final_county_share_points": 6.99274425049939, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.213613509684069, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.999999999999993, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -30.80093566021347, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -30.064999133611064, "status": "WELL BELOW", "recent_status": "WELL BELOW", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 1.5585309463871013e-05, "criticality_score": 5.060011694385974e-07, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 142077.77916768275, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 265068.1088358571, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 329357.3334916173, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } } } }, { "cid": "26095", "county": "26095", "fips": null, "reporting": 0.0, "current_votes": 0, "current_candidate_votes": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 0, "Haley Stevens": 0, "Mallory McMorrow": 0 }, "current_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": null, "Haley Stevens": null, "Mallory McMorrow": null }, "estimated_remaining_votes": 6.349298818934301, "estimated_final_votes": 6.349298818934301, "turnout_disagreement_votes": 0.0, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 46.186790528506585, "Haley Stevens": 48.15331330191162, "Mallory McMorrow": 5.659896169581791 }, "remaining_sources": [ { "model": "market", "remaining_votes": 6.349298818934301, "weight": 0.1780093144963334 } ], "share_sources": [ { "model": "v0", "weight": 0.03630604611298715, "source": "statewide raw" }, { "model": "v3", "weight": 0.06301781787712588, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "market", "weight": 0.18729675699179427, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "histgeo", "weight": 0.02760802595386354, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "latent", "weight": 0.03563066882913146, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "batchbias", "weight": 0.020512372723621893, "source": "statewide fallback" } ], "candidate_benchmarks": { "Abdul El-Sayed": { "opponent": "Haley Stevens", "expected_remaining_share_points": 46.186790528506585, "expected_final_county_share_points": 46.186790528506585, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 44.9772434252879, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 44.9772434252879, "required_final_county_share_points": 44.9772434252879, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 44.9772434252879, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": -363581.4788539525, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": false }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 44.9772434252879, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 44.9772434252879, "required_final_county_share_points": 44.9772434252879, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 44.9772434252879, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 45.620120281701126, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 45.620120281701126, "required_final_county_share_points": 45.62012028170113, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.024044322225107804, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999973, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 46.26363967307476, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 46.26363967307476, "required_final_county_share_points": 46.26363967307476, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.003259695682198218, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.9999999999999996, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": 1.2095471032186822, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "ABOVE", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 5.171862012338527e-06, "criticality_score": 4.275866560777891e-06, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -428084.9361692844, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -57455.87754997135, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 136278.49878527338, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Haley Stevens": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 48.15331330191162, "expected_final_county_share_points": 48.15331330191162, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 49.362860405130284, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 49.362860405130284, "required_final_county_share_points": 49.362860405130284, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 49.362860405130284, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 363675.8189577829, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 49.362860405130284, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 49.362860405130284, "required_final_county_share_points": 49.362860405130284, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 49.362860405130284, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 50.00508932225468, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 50.00508932225468, "required_final_county_share_points": 50.00508932225468, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.07865391656842785, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.999999999999999, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 50.6466649081806, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 50.6466649081806, "required_final_county_share_points": 50.6466649081806, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.10597932088248406, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -1.2095471032186609, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 5.171862012338527e-06, "criticality_score": 4.2758665607779666e-06, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 428179.27627311484, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 798808.3348924279, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 992542.7112276726, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Mallory McMorrow": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 5.659896169581791, "expected_final_county_share_points": 5.659896169581791, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 37.96374249047685, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 37.96374249047685, "required_final_county_share_points": 37.96374249047685, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 37.96374249047685, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 8755092.453481896, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 37.96374249047685, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 37.96374249047685, "required_final_county_share_points": 37.96374249047685, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 37.96374249047685, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 38.50336886832389, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 38.50336886832389, "required_final_county_share_points": 38.50336886832389, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.159018308558073, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999906, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 39.03716360335, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 39.03716360335, "required_final_county_share_points": 39.03716360335, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.213613509684069, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.999999999999993, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -32.303846320895055, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "WELL BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 5.171862012338527e-06, "criticality_score": 1.60100501994811e-07, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 428136.7828559825, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 798765.8414752955, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 992500.2178105402, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } } } }, { "cid": "fips:26135", "county": "Oscoda", "fips": "26135", "reporting": 99.0, "current_votes": 1082, "current_candidate_votes": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 412, "Haley Stevens": 631, "Mallory McMorrow": 39 }, "current_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 38.07763401109057, "Haley Stevens": 58.317929759704256, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.6044362292051755 }, "estimated_remaining_votes": 6.011111111111064, "estimated_final_votes": 1088.0111111111112, "turnout_disagreement_votes": 6.011111111111064, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 41.195319576083484, "Haley Stevens": 55.15509481308697, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.6495856108295506 }, "remaining_sources": [ { "model": "v3", "remaining_votes": 0.0, "weight": 0.1342208488636769 }, { "model": "histgeo", "remaining_votes": 0.0, "weight": 0.05994207394479305 }, { "model": "latent", "remaining_votes": 0.0, "weight": 0.07672787409296966 }, { "model": "batchbias", "remaining_votes": 0.0, "weight": 0.045123489075924846 } ], "share_sources": [ { "model": "v0", "weight": 0.03630604611298715, "source": "statewide raw" }, { "model": "v1", "weight": 0.14599140026529184, "source": "county live" }, { "model": "v3", "weight": 0.15004242351696637, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "market", "weight": 0.0786646379365536, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "histgeo", "weight": 0.06573339512824654, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "latent", "weight": 0.08483492578364633, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "batchbias", "weight": 0.04883898267529022, "source": "county remaining" } ], "candidate_benchmarks": { "Abdul El-Sayed": { "opponent": "Haley Stevens", "expected_remaining_share_points": 41.195319576083484, "expected_final_county_share_points": 38.0948587932176, "current_county_share_points": 38.07763401109057, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 39.989241721015205, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 39.989241721015205, "required_final_county_share_points": 38.08819537965369, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 39.989241721015205, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": -384044.31987589976, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": false }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 39.989241721015205, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 39.989241721015205, "required_final_county_share_points": 38.08819537965369, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 39.989241721015205, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 40.62932044253913, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 40.62932044253913, "required_final_county_share_points": 38.09173172618145, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.024044322225107804, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999973, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 41.27220768234806, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 41.27220768234806, "required_final_county_share_points": 38.095283589384806, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.003259695682198218, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.9999999999999996, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": 1.2060778550682798, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "ABOVE", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 4.896389049258738e-06, "criticality_score": 4.059762003491506e-06, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -452176.7695643425, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -60695.96000077151, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 143937.9960375126, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Haley Stevens": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 55.15509481308697, "expected_final_county_share_points": 58.30045553347984, "current_county_share_points": 58.317929759704256, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 56.361172668155255, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 56.361172668155255, "required_final_county_share_points": 58.307118947043755, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 56.361172668155255, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 384140.6702902889, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 56.361172668155255, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 56.361172668155255, "required_final_county_share_points": 58.307118947043755, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 56.361172668155255, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 56.998454928708355, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 56.998454928708355, "required_final_county_share_points": 58.310639843510906, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.07865391656842785, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.999999999999999, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 57.63295272454078, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 57.63295272454078, "required_final_county_share_points": 58.314145356195056, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.10597932088248406, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -1.206077855068287, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 4.896389049258738e-06, "criticality_score": 4.059762003491482e-06, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 452273.1199787317, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 843753.9295423025, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1048387.8855805867, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Mallory McMorrow": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 3.6495856108295506, "expected_final_county_share_points": 3.6046856733025474, "current_county_share_points": 3.6044362292051755, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 29.78078663836441, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 29.78078663836441, "required_final_county_share_points": 3.749056949697767, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 29.78078663836441, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 9247655.408247983, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 29.78078663836441, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 29.78078663836441, "required_final_county_share_points": 3.749056949697767, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 29.78078663836441, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 30.31375848753169, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 30.31375848753169, "required_final_county_share_points": 3.7520015455495193, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.159018308558073, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999906, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 30.844791877623084, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 30.844791877623084, "required_final_county_share_points": 3.754935431682621, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.213613509684069, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.999999999999993, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -26.13120102753486, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "WELL BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 4.896389049258738e-06, "criticality_score": 1.8737711458801052e-07, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 452221.6144695294, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 843702.4240331003, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1048336.3800713845, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } } } }, { "cid": "fips:26095", "county": "Luce", "fips": "26095", "reporting": 99.0, "current_votes": 407, "current_candidate_votes": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 174, "Haley Stevens": 201, "Mallory McMorrow": 32 }, "current_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 42.75184275184275, "Haley Stevens": 49.385749385749385, "Mallory McMorrow": 7.862407862407863 }, "estimated_remaining_votes": 5.603236249659915, "estimated_final_votes": 412.6032362496599, "turnout_disagreement_votes": 0.0, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 44.58543150399778, "Haley Stevens": 48.68284182359973, "Mallory McMorrow": 6.731726672402479 }, "remaining_sources": [ { "model": "v3", "remaining_votes": 5.603236249659915, "weight": 0.1342208488636769 }, { "model": "histgeo", "remaining_votes": 5.603236249659915, "weight": 0.05994207394479305 }, { "model": "latent", "remaining_votes": 5.603236249659915, "weight": 0.07672787409296966 }, { "model": "batchbias", "remaining_votes": 5.603236249659915, "weight": 0.045123489075924846 } ], "share_sources": [ { "model": "v0", "weight": 0.03630604611298715, "source": "statewide raw" }, { "model": "v1", "weight": 0.14599140026529184, "source": "county live" }, { "model": "v3", "weight": 0.15004242351696637, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "market", "weight": 0.0786646379365536, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "histgeo", "weight": 0.06573339512824654, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "latent", "weight": 0.08483492578364633, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "batchbias", "weight": 0.04883898267529022, "source": "county remaining" } ], "candidate_benchmarks": { "Abdul El-Sayed": { "opponent": "Haley Stevens", "expected_remaining_share_points": 44.58543150399778, "expected_final_county_share_points": 42.77674326172829, "current_county_share_points": 42.75184275184275, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 43.39212226693977, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 43.39212226693977, "required_final_county_share_points": 42.76053787847703, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 43.39212226693977, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": -411999.56283164845, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": false }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 43.39212226693977, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 43.39212226693977, "required_final_county_share_points": 42.76053787847703, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 43.39212226693977, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 44.02619273018236, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 44.02619273018236, "required_final_county_share_points": 42.76914868491853, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.024044322225107804, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999973, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 44.66129672533574, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 44.66129672533574, "required_final_county_share_points": 42.77777352693454, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.003259695682198218, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.9999999999999996, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": 1.1933092370580098, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "ABOVE", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 4.564151968931638e-06, "criticality_score": 3.824785585490077e-06, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -485091.5595102238, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -65113.793215403726, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 154416.02706069147, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Haley Stevens": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 48.68284182359973, "expected_final_county_share_points": 49.376203757440216, "current_county_share_points": 49.385749385749385, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 49.87615106065774, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 49.87615106065774, "required_final_county_share_points": 49.39240914069149, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 49.87615106065774, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 412092.831104976, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 49.87615106065774, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 49.87615106065774, "required_final_county_share_points": 49.39240914069149, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 49.87615106065774, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 50.50918423975368, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 50.50918423975368, "required_final_county_share_points": 49.40100586060233, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.07865391656842785, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.999999999999999, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 51.14117640413849, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 51.14117640413849, "required_final_county_share_points": 49.409588443320715, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.10597932088248406, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -1.1933092370580098, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 4.564151968931638e-06, "criticality_score": 3.824785585490077e-06, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 485184.8277835514, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 905162.5940783714, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1124692.4143544668, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Mallory McMorrow": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 6.731726672402479, "expected_final_county_share_points": 7.847052980831477, "current_county_share_points": 7.862407862407863, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 39.57202357551705, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 39.57202357551705, "required_final_county_share_points": 8.293030922569635, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 39.57202357551705, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 9920820.304696234, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 39.57202357551705, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 39.57202357551705, "required_final_county_share_points": 8.293030922569635, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 39.57202357551705, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 40.05181387083032, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 40.05181387083032, "required_final_county_share_points": 8.299546572808762, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.159018308558073, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999906, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 40.5244778505859, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 40.5244778505859, "required_final_county_share_points": 8.305965446226594, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.213613509684069, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.999999999999993, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -32.84029690311457, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "WELL BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 4.564151968931638e-06, "criticality_score": 1.3898022854046652e-07, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 485142.8766684002, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 905120.6429632202, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1124650.4632393157, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } } } }, { "cid": "26135", "county": "26135", "fips": null, "reporting": 0.0, "current_votes": 0, "current_candidate_votes": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 0, "Haley Stevens": 0, "Mallory McMorrow": 0 }, "current_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": null, "Haley Stevens": null, "Mallory McMorrow": null }, "estimated_remaining_votes": 0.0, "estimated_final_votes": 0.0, "turnout_disagreement_votes": 0.0, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 44.05942024273639, "Haley Stevens": 52.2186120869277, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.721967670335919 }, "remaining_sources": [ { "model": "market", "remaining_votes": 0.0, "weight": 0.1780093144963334 } ], "share_sources": [ { "model": "v0", "weight": 0.03630604611298715, "source": "statewide raw" }, { "model": "v3", "weight": 0.06301781787712588, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "market", "weight": 0.18729675699179427, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "histgeo", "weight": 0.02760802595386354, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "latent", "weight": 0.03563066882913146, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "batchbias", "weight": 0.020512372723621893, "source": "statewide fallback" } ], "candidate_benchmarks": { "Abdul El-Sayed": { "opponent": "Haley Stevens", "expected_remaining_share_points": 44.05942024273639, "expected_final_county_share_points": 0.0, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 42.83536582782532, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 42.83536582782532, "required_final_county_share_points": 0.0, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": null, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": false }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 42.83536582782532, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 42.83536582782532, "required_final_county_share_points": 0.0, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 43.48545408349514, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 43.48545408349514, "required_final_county_share_points": 0.0, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.024044322225107804, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999973, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 44.13732671870033, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 44.13732671870033, "required_final_county_share_points": 0.0, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.003259695682198218, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.9999999999999996, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": 1.2240544149110661, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "ABOVE", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.0, "criticality_score": 0.0 }, "Haley Stevens": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 52.2186120869277, "expected_final_county_share_points": 0.0, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 53.44266650183875, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 53.44266650183875, "required_final_county_share_points": 0.0, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": null, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": false }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 53.44266650183875, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 53.44266650183875, "required_final_county_share_points": 0.0, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 54.09097127374333, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 54.09097127374333, "required_final_county_share_points": 0.0, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.07865391656842785, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.999999999999999, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 54.73749347663722, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 54.73749347663722, "required_final_county_share_points": 0.0, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.10597932088248406, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -1.224054414911052, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.0, "criticality_score": 0.0 }, "Mallory McMorrow": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 3.721967670335919, "expected_final_county_share_points": 0.0, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 31.219860722705857, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 31.219860722705857, "required_final_county_share_points": 0.0, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": null, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": false }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 31.219860722705857, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 31.219860722705857, "required_final_county_share_points": 0.0, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 31.796703674934328, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 31.796703674934328, "required_final_county_share_points": 0.0, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.159018308558073, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999906, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 32.37210310041463, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 32.37210310041463, "required_final_county_share_points": 0.0, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.213613509684069, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.999999999999993, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -27.49789305236994, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "WELL BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.0, "criticality_score": 0.0 } } } ], "method_note": "A county's headline win benchmark is a distributed statewide path: V6 solves the common candidate-vs-opponent log-odds swing across all remaining counties required for a statewide tie, then translates that path into a target share for each county. A separate single-county break-even diagnostic is retained for leverage analysis. All benchmarks recalculate after every dump.", "monte_carlo_benchmark_context": { "reference_candidate": "Abdul El-Sayed", "signed_margin_p10": -0.7209907602907051, "signed_margin_median": 2.2142350911356914, "signed_margin_p90": 5.11662886049802, "approx_margin_sigma_points": 2.277559396647456, "note": "50/80/90% county probability benchmarks use a normal approximation to the signed statewide Monte Carlo margin distribution. They are scenario guides, while the tie benchmark is exact conditional on the deterministic expectations elsewhere." } }, "benchmark_signal": { "available": true, "favored_candidate": "Abdul El-Sayed", "least_favored_candidate": "Mallory McMorrow", "evidence": 0.6671350391989715, "favored_signal_score": 0.03915837526743363, "favored_weighted_excess_points": 0.6016278877844345, "favored_breadth_balance": -0.23076923076923078, "candidates": { "Abdul El-Sayed": { "weighted_excess_points": 0.6016278877844345, "above_benchmark_counties": 18, "below_benchmark_counties": 30, "on_benchmark_counties": 4, "unique_counties": 37, "unique_markets": 7, "votes_scored": 37949.0, "breadth_balance": -0.23076923076923078, "evidence": 0.6671350391989715, "signal_score": 0.03915837526743363 }, "Haley Stevens": { "weighted_excess_points": -0.8565954088812535, "above_benchmark_counties": 28, "below_benchmark_counties": 18, "on_benchmark_counties": 6, "unique_counties": 37, "unique_markets": 7, "votes_scored": 37949.0, "breadth_balance": 0.19230769230769232, "evidence": 0.6671350391989715, "signal_score": -0.08767358497472703 }, "Mallory McMorrow": { "weighted_excess_points": -29.590177532489776, "above_benchmark_counties": 0, "below_benchmark_counties": 52, "on_benchmark_counties": 0, "unique_counties": 37, "unique_markets": 7, "votes_scored": 37949.0, "breadth_balance": -1.0, "evidence": 0.6671350391989715, "signal_score": -0.667135039155625 } }, "intervals": [ { "from_snapshot": 44, "to_snapshot": 45, "new_votes": 10283, "changed_counties": 13, "benchmark_observations_scored": 39 }, { "from_snapshot": 45, "to_snapshot": 46, "new_votes": 8299, "changed_counties": 14, "benchmark_observations_scored": 42 }, { "from_snapshot": 46, "to_snapshot": 47, "new_votes": 12360, "changed_counties": 12, "benchmark_observations_scored": 36 }, { "from_snapshot": 47, "to_snapshot": 48, "new_votes": 7007, "changed_counties": 13, "benchmark_observations_scored": 39 } ], "method_note": "V6 rebuilds county tie benchmarks and the preliminary expert gate exactly as they existed at each prior snapshot, then grades only later-arriving vote. Broad, repeated benchmark beats across independent counties are stronger evidence than one friendly dump." }, "crossover_consensus": { "available": false, "raw_leader": "Abdul El-Sayed", "candidate": null, "eligible": false, "score": 0.0, "independent_families": 0, "candidates": {} }, "horizon_validation": { "v0": { "short_path_quality": 0.5960141637281827, "short_path_evidence": 0.6090081831189499, "maturation_quality": 0.21548795659162212, "maturation_evidence": 1.0, "specialist_exam": { "available": false, "score": 0.0, "mae_points": null, "evidence": 0.0, "exam": null }, "final_quality": 0.21548795659162212, "final_evidence": 1.0, "residual_mae_points": 6.906826155985889 }, "v1": { "short_path_quality": 0.589254528735769, "short_path_evidence": 0.5898586588970036, "maturation_quality": 0.3374278868570438, "maturation_evidence": 0.7700863821896933, "specialist_exam": { "available": false, "score": 0.0, "mae_points": null, "evidence": 0.0, "exam": null }, "final_quality": 0.3374278868570438, "final_evidence": 0.7700863821896933, "residual_mae_points": 5.82642525665127 }, "v3": { "short_path_quality": 0.6700150915938691, "short_path_evidence": 0.6090081831189499, "maturation_quality": 0.2492213710187745, "maturation_evidence": 1.0, "specialist_exam": { "available": false, "score": 0.0, "mae_points": null, "evidence": 0.0, "exam": null }, "final_quality": 0.2492213710187745, "final_evidence": 1.0, "residual_mae_points": 6.252361817596126 }, "market": { "short_path_quality": 0.55, "short_path_evidence": 0.0, "maturation_quality": 0.55, "maturation_evidence": 0.0, "specialist_exam": { "available": false, "score": 0.0, "mae_points": null, "evidence": 0.0, "exam": null }, "final_quality": 0.55, "final_evidence": 0.0, "residual_mae_points": 6.0 }, "histgeo": { "short_path_quality": 0.6781502087045048, "short_path_evidence": 0.6090081831189499, "maturation_quality": 0.2615765604883897, "maturation_evidence": 1.0, "specialist_exam": { "available": true, "score": 0.4821328465755259, "mae_points": 4.012445731824946, "evidence": 1.0, "exam": "held-out historical coalition geography" }, "final_quality": 0.32774344631453056, "final_evidence": 1.0, "residual_mae_points": 5.023536459896757 }, "latent": { "short_path_quality": 0.6811748538733077, "short_path_evidence": 0.6090081831189499, "maturation_quality": 0.25924045130541196, "maturation_evidence": 1.0, "specialist_exam": { "available": true, "score": 0.3705514209458427, "mae_points": 4.9638152794908645, "evidence": 1.0, "exam": "held-out latent coalition factors" }, "final_quality": 0.2926337421975412, "final_evidence": 1.0, "residual_mae_points": 5.5194059849725114 }, "batchbias": { "short_path_quality": 0.49451026475286897, "short_path_evidence": 0.35144885730913816, "maturation_quality": 0.37398107276058357, "maturation_evidence": 0.501359732061591, "specialist_exam": { "available": true, "score": 0.18341567350639373, "mae_points": 9.328001441192093, "evidence": 0.37665726543829686, "exam": "prior-batch residual validation" }, "final_quality": 0.3891476654023228, "final_evidence": 0.6891762118206919, "residual_mae_points": 8.151088001290569 } }, "completion_referee": { "available": true, "span_snapshots": 9, "windows": [ { "from_snapshot": 12, "from_filename": "12.json", "to_snapshot": 21, "to_filename": "21.json", "span_snapshots": 9, "matured_votes": 180596, "matured_counties": 11, "correction_votes": 0, "predictions": { "v0": { "available": true, "mae_points": 9.418701527230363, "counties_scored": 11, "counties_skipped_noninformative": 0, "informative_votes": 180596.0, "informative_vote_coverage": 1.0, "county_examples": [ { "cid": "fips:26125", "county": "Oakland", "new_votes": 142424, "reporting_advance_points": 60.38, "source": "statewide live scoreboard", "geography_level": "statewide", "effective_sample_votes": 74171, "expected_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 62.678135659489556, "Haley Stevens": 34.024079491984736, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.297784848525704 }, "actual_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 47.67595349098466, "Haley Stevens": 49.67280795371566, "Mallory McMorrow": 2.6512385552996687 }, "mae_points": 10.432485641153951 }, { "cid": "fips:26099", "county": "Macomb", "new_votes": 8532, "reporting_advance_points": 7.399999999999999, "source": "statewide live scoreboard", "geography_level": "statewide", "effective_sample_votes": 74171, "expected_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 62.678135659489556, "Haley Stevens": 34.024079491984736, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.297784848525704 }, "actual_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 53.17627754336615, "Haley Stevens": 43.459915611814345, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.363806844819503 }, "mae_points": 6.334572077415605 }, { "cid": "fips:26161", "county": "Washtenaw", "new_votes": 8116, "reporting_advance_points": 8.939999999999992, "source": "statewide live scoreboard", "geography_level": "statewide", "effective_sample_votes": 74171, "expected_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 62.678135659489556, "Haley Stevens": 34.024079491984736, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.297784848525704 }, "actual_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 62.51848201084278, "Haley Stevens": 34.36421882700838, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.1172991621488415 }, "mae_points": 0.2267595566824262 }, { "cid": "fips:26093", "county": "Livingston", "new_votes": 7895, "reporting_advance_points": 33.32999999999999, "source": "statewide live scoreboard", "geography_level": "statewide", "effective_sample_votes": 74171, "expected_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 62.678135659489556, "Haley Stevens": 34.024079491984736, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.297784848525704 }, "actual_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 48.777707409753006, "Haley Stevens": 47.66307789740342, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.559214692843572 }, "mae_points": 9.266952166491032 }, { "cid": "fips:26163", "county": "Wayne", "new_votes": 4352, "reporting_advance_points": 1.43, "source": "statewide live scoreboard", "geography_level": "statewide", "effective_sample_votes": 74171, "expected_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 62.678135659489556, "Haley Stevens": 34.024079491984736, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.297784848525704 }, "actual_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 46.25459558823529, "Haley Stevens": 51.01102941176471, "Mallory McMorrow": 2.734375 }, "mae_points": 11.324633279853312 }, { "cid": "fips:26149", "county": "St. Joseph", "new_votes": 4028, "reporting_advance_points": 96.71, "source": "statewide live scoreboard", "geography_level": "statewide", "effective_sample_votes": 74171, "expected_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 62.678135659489556, "Haley Stevens": 34.024079491984736, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.297784848525704 }, "actual_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 46.32571996027806, "Haley Stevens": 47.96425024826216, "Mallory McMorrow": 5.710029791459782 }, "mae_points": 10.901610466141 }, { "cid": "fips:26045", "county": "Eaton", "new_votes": 2299, "reporting_advance_points": 14.06, "source": "statewide live scoreboard", "geography_level": "statewide", "effective_sample_votes": 74171, "expected_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 62.678135659489556, "Haley Stevens": 34.024079491984736, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.297784848525704 }, "actual_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 43.01870378425402, "Haley Stevens": 50.84819486733362, "Mallory McMorrow": 6.133101348412353 }, "mae_points": 13.106287916823685 }, { "cid": "fips:26041", "county": "Delta", "new_votes": 1299, "reporting_advance_points": 31.46, "source": "statewide live scoreboard", "geography_level": "statewide", "effective_sample_votes": 74171, "expected_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 62.678135659489556, "Haley Stevens": 34.024079491984736, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.297784848525704 }, "actual_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 47.57505773672055, "Haley Stevens": 44.80369515011547, "Mallory McMorrow": 7.621247113163972 }, "mae_points": 10.068718615179334 }, { "cid": "fips:26069", "county": "Iosco", "new_votes": 908, "reporting_advance_points": 29.439999999999998, "source": "statewide live scoreboard", "geography_level": "statewide", "effective_sample_votes": 74171, "expected_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 62.678135659489556, "Haley Stevens": 34.024079491984736, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.297784848525704 }, "actual_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 37.44493392070485, "Haley Stevens": 54.40528634361234, "Mallory McMorrow": 8.149779735682818 }, "mae_points": 16.82213449252314 }, { "cid": "fips:26123", "county": "Newaygo", "new_votes": 474, "reporting_advance_points": 11.7, "source": "statewide live scoreboard", "geography_level": "statewide", "effective_sample_votes": 74171, "expected_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 62.678135659489556, "Haley Stevens": 34.024079491984736, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.297784848525704 }, "actual_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 38.607594936708864, "Haley Stevens": 56.118143459915615, "Mallory McMorrow": 5.274261603375527 }, "mae_points": 16.047027148520463 }, { "cid": "fips:26079", "county": "Kalkaska", "new_votes": 269, "reporting_advance_points": 16.32, "source": "statewide live scoreboard", "geography_level": "statewide", "effective_sample_votes": 74171, "expected_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 62.678135659489556, "Haley Stevens": 34.024079491984736, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.297784848525704 }, "actual_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 51.301115241635685, "Haley Stevens": 45.353159851301115, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.3457249070631967 }, "mae_points": 7.584680278569246 } ] }, "v1": { "available": true, "mae_points": 5.853495235349322, "counties_scored": 6, "counties_skipped_noninformative": 5, "informative_votes": 32493.0, "informative_vote_coverage": 0.17992092848125096, "county_examples": [ { "cid": "fips:26099", "county": "Macomb", "new_votes": 8532, "reporting_advance_points": 7.399999999999999, "source": "county live share", "geography_level": "county", "effective_sample_votes": 2925, "expected_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 61.36752136752137, "Haley Stevens": 36.51282051282052, "Mallory McMorrow": 2.1196581196581197 }, "actual_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 53.17627754336615, "Haley Stevens": 43.459915611814345, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.363806844819503 }, "mae_points": 5.46082921610348 }, { "cid": "fips:26161", "county": "Washtenaw", "new_votes": 8116, "reporting_advance_points": 8.939999999999992, "source": "county live share", "geography_level": "county", "effective_sample_votes": 39944, "expected_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 68.01021430002004, "Haley Stevens": 29.99198878429802, "Mallory McMorrow": 1.9977969156819548 }, "actual_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 62.51848201084278, "Haley Stevens": 34.36421882700838, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.1172991621488415 }, "mae_points": 3.661154859451501 }, { "cid": "fips:26093", "county": "Livingston", "new_votes": 7895, "reporting_advance_points": 33.32999999999999, "source": "county live share", "geography_level": "county", "effective_sample_votes": 6305, "expected_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 61.427438540840605, "Haley Stevens": 35.590800951625695, "Mallory McMorrow": 2.9817605075337035 }, "actual_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 48.777707409753006, "Haley Stevens": 47.66307789740342, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.559214692843572 }, "mae_points": 8.433154087391731 }, { "cid": "fips:26163", "county": "Wayne", "new_votes": 4352, "reporting_advance_points": 1.43, "source": "county live share", "geography_level": "county", "effective_sample_votes": 316, "expected_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 55.69620253164557, "Haley Stevens": 41.77215189873418, "Mallory McMorrow": 2.5316455696202533 }, "actual_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 46.25459558823529, "Haley Stevens": 51.01102941176471, "Mallory McMorrow": 2.734375 }, "mae_points": 6.294404628940184 }, { "cid": "fips:26045", "county": "Eaton", "new_votes": 2299, "reporting_advance_points": 14.06, "source": "county live share", "geography_level": "county", "effective_sample_votes": 7828, "expected_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 54.29228410832907, "Haley Stevens": 40.77669902912621, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.931016862544711 }, "actual_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 43.01870378425402, "Haley Stevens": 50.84819486733362, "Mallory McMorrow": 6.133101348412353 }, "mae_points": 7.51572021605003 }, { "cid": "fips:26041", "county": "Delta", "new_votes": 1299, "reporting_advance_points": 31.46, "source": "county live share", "geography_level": "county", "effective_sample_votes": 674, "expected_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 42.87833827893175, "Haley Stevens": 45.25222551928783, "Mallory McMorrow": 11.869436201780417 }, "actual_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 47.57505773672055, "Haley Stevens": 44.80369515011547, "Mallory McMorrow": 7.621247113163972 }, "mae_points": 3.1311463051925372 } ] }, "v3": { "available": true, "mae_points": 9.177401507096617, "counties_scored": 11, "counties_skipped_noninformative": 0, "informative_votes": 180596.0, "informative_vote_coverage": 1.0, "county_examples": [ { "cid": "fips:26125", "county": "Oakland", "new_votes": 142424, "reporting_advance_points": 60.38, "source": "v3 county remaining-vote prediction", "geography_level": "county", "effective_sample_votes": 0, "expected_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 62.678135659489556, "Haley Stevens": 34.024079491984736, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.297784848525704 }, "actual_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 47.67595349098466, "Haley Stevens": 49.67280795371566, "Mallory McMorrow": 2.6512385552996687 }, "mae_points": 10.432485641153951 }, { "cid": "fips:26099", "county": "Macomb", "new_votes": 8532, "reporting_advance_points": 7.399999999999999, "source": "v3 county remaining-vote prediction", "geography_level": "county", "effective_sample_votes": 2925, "expected_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 62.46925811285826, "Haley Stevens": 34.42071954224099, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.11002234490074 }, "actual_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 53.17627754336615, "Haley Stevens": 43.459915611814345, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.363806844819503 }, "mae_points": 6.195320379661412 }, { "cid": "fips:26161", "county": "Washtenaw", "new_votes": 8116, "reporting_advance_points": 8.939999999999992, "source": "v3 county remaining-vote prediction", "geography_level": "county", "effective_sample_votes": 39944, "expected_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 66.21624205634384, "Haley Stevens": 31.34858145691753, "Mallory McMorrow": 2.4351764867386287 }, "actual_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 62.51848201084278, "Haley Stevens": 34.36421882700838, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.1172991621488415 }, "mae_points": 2.4651733636673763 }, { "cid": "fips:26093", "county": "Livingston", "new_votes": 7895, "reporting_advance_points": 33.32999999999999, "source": "v3 county remaining-vote prediction", "geography_level": "county", "effective_sample_votes": 6305, "expected_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 62.032965032834085, "Haley Stevens": 34.83227090047142, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.1347640666944976 }, "actual_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 48.777707409753006, "Haley Stevens": 47.66307789740342, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.559214692843572 }, "mae_points": 8.836838415387387 }, { "cid": "fips:26163", "county": "Wayne", "new_votes": 4352, "reporting_advance_points": 1.43, "source": "v3 county remaining-vote prediction", "geography_level": "county", "effective_sample_votes": 316, "expected_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 62.45734754793985, "Haley Stevens": 34.26909505479705, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.2735573972631022 }, "actual_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 46.25459558823529, "Haley Stevens": 51.01102941176471, "Mallory McMorrow": 2.734375 }, "mae_points": 11.161289571311773 }, { "cid": "fips:26149", "county": "St. Joseph", "new_votes": 4028, "reporting_advance_points": 96.71, "source": "v3 county remaining-vote prediction", "geography_level": "county", "effective_sample_votes": 0, "expected_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 62.678135659489556, "Haley Stevens": 34.024079491984736, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.297784848525704 }, "actual_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 46.32571996027806, "Haley Stevens": 47.96425024826216, "Mallory McMorrow": 5.710029791459782 }, "mae_points": 10.901610466141 }, { "cid": "fips:26045", "county": "Eaton", "new_votes": 2299, "reporting_advance_points": 14.06, "source": "v3 county remaining-vote prediction", "geography_level": "county", "effective_sample_votes": 7828, "expected_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 56.87672621991757, "Haley Stevens": 38.69560396217281, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.427669817909622 }, "actual_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 43.01870378425402, "Haley Stevens": 50.84819486733362, "Mallory McMorrow": 6.133101348412353 }, "mae_points": 9.238681623775696 }, { "cid": "fips:26041", "county": "Delta", "new_votes": 1299, "reporting_advance_points": 31.46, "source": "v3 county remaining-vote prediction", "geography_level": "county", "effective_sample_votes": 674, "expected_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 54.679409602549065, "Haley Stevens": 38.56002814204067, "Mallory McMorrow": 6.760562255410261 }, "actual_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 47.57505773672055, "Haley Stevens": 44.80369515011547, "Mallory McMorrow": 7.621247113163972 }, "mae_points": 4.736234577219009 }, { "cid": "fips:26069", "county": "Iosco", "new_votes": 908, "reporting_advance_points": 29.439999999999998, "source": "v3 county remaining-vote prediction", "geography_level": "county", "effective_sample_votes": 0, "expected_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 62.678135659489556, "Haley Stevens": 34.024079491984736, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.297784848525704 }, "actual_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 37.44493392070485, "Haley Stevens": 54.40528634361234, "Mallory McMorrow": 8.149779735682818 }, "mae_points": 16.82213449252314 }, { "cid": "fips:26123", "county": "Newaygo", "new_votes": 474, "reporting_advance_points": 11.7, "source": "v3 county remaining-vote prediction", "geography_level": "county", "effective_sample_votes": 0, "expected_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 62.678135659489556, "Haley Stevens": 34.024079491984736, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.297784848525704 }, "actual_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 38.607594936708864, "Haley Stevens": 56.118143459915615, "Mallory McMorrow": 5.274261603375527 }, "mae_points": 16.047027148520463 }, { "cid": "fips:26079", "county": "Kalkaska", "new_votes": 269, "reporting_advance_points": 16.32, "source": "v3 county remaining-vote prediction", "geography_level": "county", "effective_sample_votes": 0, "expected_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 62.678135659489556, "Haley Stevens": 34.024079491984736, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.297784848525704 }, "actual_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 51.301115241635685, "Haley Stevens": 45.353159851301115, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.3457249070631967 }, "mae_points": 7.584680278569246 } ] }, "market": { "available": false, "counties_scored": 0, "counties_skipped_noninformative": 11, "informative_vote_coverage": 0.0 }, "histgeo": { "available": true, "mae_points": 9.012792507263468, "counties_scored": 11, "counties_skipped_noninformative": 0, "informative_votes": 180596.0, "informative_vote_coverage": 1.0, "county_examples": [ { "cid": "fips:26125", "county": "Oakland", "new_votes": 142424, "reporting_advance_points": 60.38, "source": "histgeo county remaining-vote prediction", "geography_level": "county", "effective_sample_votes": 0, "expected_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 62.35471810455508, "Haley Stevens": 34.25283336425182, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.3924485311930854 }, "actual_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 47.67595349098466, "Haley Stevens": 49.67280795371566, "Mallory McMorrow": 2.6512385552996687 }, "mae_points": 10.279983059642559 }, { "cid": "fips:26099", "county": "Macomb", "new_votes": 8532, "reporting_advance_points": 7.399999999999999, "source": "histgeo county remaining-vote prediction", "geography_level": "county", "effective_sample_votes": 2925, "expected_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 62.200959224882105, "Haley Stevens": 34.60536316370311, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.1936776114147887 }, "actual_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 53.17627754336615, "Haley Stevens": 43.459915611814345, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.363806844819503 }, "mae_points": 6.016454454343969 }, { "cid": "fips:26161", "county": "Washtenaw", "new_votes": 8116, "reporting_advance_points": 8.939999999999992, "source": "histgeo county remaining-vote prediction", "geography_level": "county", "effective_sample_votes": 39944, "expected_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 66.27330881959946, "Haley Stevens": 31.30537931619724, "Mallory McMorrow": 2.4213118642033016 }, "actual_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 62.51848201084278, "Haley Stevens": 34.36421882700838, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.1172991621488415 }, "mae_points": 2.5032178725044543 }, { "cid": "fips:26093", "county": "Livingston", "new_votes": 7895, "reporting_advance_points": 33.32999999999999, "source": "histgeo county remaining-vote prediction", "geography_level": "county", "effective_sample_votes": 6305, "expected_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 61.8791828370274, "Haley Stevens": 34.94560409386152, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.1752130691110816 }, "actual_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 48.777707409753006, "Haley Stevens": 47.66307789740342, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.559214692843572 }, "mae_points": 8.734316951516263 }, { "cid": "fips:26163", "county": "Wayne", "new_votes": 4352, "reporting_advance_points": 1.43, "source": "histgeo county remaining-vote prediction", "geography_level": "county", "effective_sample_votes": 316, "expected_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 62.19109946086977, "Haley Stevens": 34.4275448553038, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.3813556838264347 }, "actual_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 46.25459558823529, "Haley Stevens": 51.01102941176471, "Mallory McMorrow": 2.734375 }, "mae_points": 11.055656370973942 }, { "cid": "fips:26149", "county": "St. Joseph", "new_votes": 4028, "reporting_advance_points": 96.71, "source": "histgeo county remaining-vote prediction", "geography_level": "county", "effective_sample_votes": 0, "expected_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 62.19339258623019, "Haley Stevens": 34.351602266784745, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.4550051469850676 }, "actual_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 46.32571996027806, "Haley Stevens": 47.96425024826216, "Mallory McMorrow": 5.710029791459782 }, "mae_points": 10.578448417301422 }, { "cid": "fips:26045", "county": "Eaton", "new_votes": 2299, "reporting_advance_points": 14.06, "source": "histgeo county remaining-vote prediction", "geography_level": "county", "effective_sample_votes": 7828, "expected_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 56.685762821702156, "Haley Stevens": 38.82997529019242, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.484261888105426 }, "actual_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 43.01870378425402, "Haley Stevens": 50.84819486733362, "Mallory McMorrow": 6.133101348412353 }, "mae_points": 9.111372691632086 }, { "cid": "fips:26041", "county": "Delta", "new_votes": 1299, "reporting_advance_points": 31.46, "source": "histgeo county remaining-vote prediction", "geography_level": "county", "effective_sample_votes": 674, "expected_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 54.188978788271456, "Haley Stevens": 38.89258385695521, "Mallory McMorrow": 6.918437354773332 }, "actual_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 47.57505773672055, "Haley Stevens": 44.80369515011547, "Mallory McMorrow": 7.621247113163972 }, "mae_points": 4.409280701033933 }, { "cid": "fips:26069", "county": "Iosco", "new_votes": 908, "reporting_advance_points": 29.439999999999998, "source": "histgeo county remaining-vote prediction", "geography_level": "county", "effective_sample_votes": 0, "expected_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 61.91489696305654, "Haley Stevens": 34.560508238946184, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.52459479799727 }, "actual_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 37.44493392070485, "Haley Stevens": 54.40528634361234, "Mallory McMorrow": 8.149779735682818 }, "mae_points": 16.31330869490113 }, { "cid": "fips:26123", "county": "Newaygo", "new_votes": 474, "reporting_advance_points": 11.7, "source": "histgeo county remaining-vote prediction", "geography_level": "county", "effective_sample_votes": 0, "expected_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 62.13265376607393, "Haley Stevens": 34.397604613511795, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.4697416204142724 }, "actual_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 38.607594936708864, "Haley Stevens": 56.118143459915615, "Mallory McMorrow": 5.274261603375527 }, "mae_points": 15.683372552910049 }, { "cid": "fips:26079", "county": "Kalkaska", "new_votes": 269, "reporting_advance_points": 16.32, "source": "histgeo county remaining-vote prediction", "geography_level": "county", "effective_sample_votes": 0, "expected_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 62.14034708726275, "Haley Stevens": 34.401186399499565, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.45846651323768 }, "actual_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 51.301115241635685, "Haley Stevens": 45.353159851301115, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.3457249070631967 }, "mae_points": 7.301315634534365 } ] }, "latent": { "available": true, "mae_points": 8.962112876990844, "counties_scored": 11, "counties_skipped_noninformative": 0, "informative_votes": 180596.0, "informative_vote_coverage": 1.0, "county_examples": [ { "cid": "fips:26125", "county": "Oakland", "new_votes": 142424, "reporting_advance_points": 60.38, "source": "latent county remaining-vote prediction", "geography_level": "county", "effective_sample_votes": 0, "expected_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 62.18755472934843, "Haley Stevens": 34.352415187583894, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.460030083067678 }, "actual_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 47.67595349098466, "Haley Stevens": 49.67280795371566, "Mallory McMorrow": 2.6512385552996687 }, "mae_points": 10.213595177421182 }, { "cid": "fips:26099", "county": "Macomb", "new_votes": 8532, "reporting_advance_points": 7.399999999999999, "source": "latent county remaining-vote prediction", "geography_level": "county", "effective_sample_votes": 2925, "expected_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 62.06050274805214, "Haley Stevens": 34.69396389917067, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.2455333527771995 }, "actual_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 53.17627754336615, "Haley Stevens": 43.459915611814345, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.363806844819503 }, "mae_points": 5.9228168031239905 }, { "cid": "fips:26161", "county": "Washtenaw", "new_votes": 8116, "reporting_advance_points": 8.939999999999992, "source": "latent county remaining-vote prediction", "geography_level": "county", "effective_sample_votes": 39944, "expected_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 66.06468496547436, "Haley Stevens": 31.448802156272727, "Mallory McMorrow": 2.4865128782529236 }, "actual_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 62.51848201084278, "Haley Stevens": 34.36421882700838, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.1172991621488415 }, "mae_points": 2.364135303087715 }, { "cid": "fips:26093", "county": "Livingston", "new_votes": 7895, "reporting_advance_points": 33.32999999999999, "source": "latent county remaining-vote prediction", "geography_level": "county", "effective_sample_votes": 6305, "expected_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 61.78760378386949, "Haley Stevens": 34.997191373038916, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.2152048430915916 }, "actual_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 48.777707409753006, "Haley Stevens": 47.66307789740342, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.559214692843572 }, "mae_points": 8.673264249410991 }, { "cid": "fips:26163", "county": "Wayne", "new_votes": 4352, "reporting_advance_points": 1.43, "source": "latent county remaining-vote prediction", "geography_level": "county", "effective_sample_votes": 316, "expected_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 62.01211492363002, "Haley Stevens": 34.56439828659853, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.423486789771453 }, "actual_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 46.25459558823529, "Haley Stevens": 51.01102941176471, "Mallory McMorrow": 2.734375 }, "mae_points": 10.964420750110786 }, { "cid": "fips:26149", "county": "St. Joseph", "new_votes": 4028, "reporting_advance_points": 96.71, "source": "latent county remaining-vote prediction", "geography_level": "county", "effective_sample_votes": 0, "expected_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 62.18533944577723, "Haley Stevens": 34.35409695784562, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.4605635963771504 }, "actual_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 46.32571996027806, "Haley Stevens": 47.96425024826216, "Mallory McMorrow": 5.710029791459782 }, "mae_points": 10.57307965699945 }, { "cid": "fips:26045", "county": "Eaton", "new_votes": 2299, "reporting_advance_points": 14.06, "source": "latent county remaining-vote prediction", "geography_level": "county", "effective_sample_votes": 7828, "expected_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 56.716288061151424, "Haley Stevens": 38.80381298094454, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.479898957904034 }, "actual_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 43.01870378425402, "Haley Stevens": 50.84819486733362, "Mallory McMorrow": 6.133101348412353 }, "mae_points": 9.13172285126493 }, { "cid": "fips:26041", "county": "Delta", "new_votes": 1299, "reporting_advance_points": 31.46, "source": "latent county remaining-vote prediction", "geography_level": "county", "effective_sample_votes": 674, "expected_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 54.37532622680563, "Haley Stevens": 38.76459542753074, "Mallory McMorrow": 6.8600783456636325 }, "actual_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 47.57505773672055, "Haley Stevens": 44.80369515011547, "Mallory McMorrow": 7.621247113163972 }, "mae_points": 4.533512326723382 }, { "cid": "fips:26069", "county": "Iosco", "new_votes": 908, "reporting_advance_points": 29.439999999999998, "source": "latent county remaining-vote prediction", "geography_level": "county", "effective_sample_votes": 0, "expected_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 62.14838440322886, "Haley Stevens": 34.38215200794697, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.4694635888241634 }, "actual_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 37.44493392070485, "Haley Stevens": 54.40528634361234, "Mallory McMorrow": 8.149779735682818 }, "mae_points": 16.468966988349347 }, { "cid": "fips:26123", "county": "Newaygo", "new_votes": 474, "reporting_advance_points": 11.7, "source": "latent county remaining-vote prediction", "geography_level": "county", "effective_sample_votes": 0, "expected_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 62.173681194318696, "Haley Stevens": 34.362947518045495, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.4633712876358045 }, "actual_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 38.607594936708864, "Haley Stevens": 56.118143459915615, "Mallory McMorrow": 5.274261603375527 }, "mae_points": 15.710724171739892 }, { "cid": "fips:26079", "county": "Kalkaska", "new_votes": 269, "reporting_advance_points": 16.32, "source": "latent county remaining-vote prediction", "geography_level": "county", "effective_sample_votes": 0, "expected_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 62.169707703264734, "Haley Stevens": 34.36596406146985, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.4643282352654086 }, "actual_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 51.301115241635685, "Haley Stevens": 45.353159851301115, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.3457249070631967 }, "mae_points": 7.324797193220839 } ] }, "batchbias": { "available": true, "mae_points": 6.253714117332525, "counties_scored": 2, "counties_skipped_noninformative": 9, "informative_votes": 10831.0, "informative_vote_coverage": 0.05997364282708366, "county_examples": [ { "cid": "fips:26099", "county": "Macomb", "new_votes": 8532, "reporting_advance_points": 7.399999999999999, "source": "batchbias county remaining-vote prediction", "geography_level": "county", "effective_sample_votes": 2925, "expected_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 63.23432884395004, "Haley Stevens": 33.568608961043196, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.1970621950067715 }, "actual_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 53.17627754336615, "Haley Stevens": 43.459915611814345, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.363806844819503 }, "mae_points": 6.705367533722592 }, { "cid": "fips:26045", "county": "Eaton", "new_votes": 2299, "reporting_advance_points": 14.06, "source": "batchbias county remaining-vote prediction", "geography_level": "county", "effective_sample_votes": 7828, "expected_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 50.9858659612728, "Haley Stevens": 43.47195049553021, "Mallory McMorrow": 5.542183543196992 }, "actual_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 43.01870378425402, "Haley Stevens": 50.84819486733362, "Mallory McMorrow": 6.133101348412353 }, "mae_points": 5.311441451345849 } ] } } }, { "from_snapshot": 21, "from_filename": "21.json", "to_snapshot": 30, "to_filename": "30.json", "span_snapshots": 9, "matured_votes": 65710, "matured_counties": 22, "correction_votes": 0, "predictions": { "v0": { "available": true, "mae_points": 5.231705231910092, "counties_scored": 22, "counties_skipped_noninformative": 0, "informative_votes": 65710.0, "informative_vote_coverage": 1.0, "county_examples": [ { "cid": "fips:26125", "county": "Oakland", "new_votes": 23701, "reporting_advance_points": 6.620000000000004, "source": "statewide live scoreboard", "geography_level": "statewide", "effective_sample_votes": 257355, "expected_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 52.60282489168658, "Haley Stevens": 44.33642245147753, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.060752656835888 }, "actual_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 48.20049786928821, "Haley Stevens": 49.07809797054977, "Mallory McMorrow": 2.7214041601620185 }, "mae_points": 3.161117012714824 }, { "cid": "fips:26161", "county": "Washtenaw", "new_votes": 10867, "reporting_advance_points": 11.980000000000013, "source": "statewide live scoreboard", "geography_level": "statewide", "effective_sample_votes": 257355, "expected_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 52.60282489168658, "Haley Stevens": 44.33642245147753, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.060752656835888 }, "actual_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 50.87880739854606, "Haley Stevens": 41.53860311033404, "Mallory McMorrow": 7.582589491119903 }, "mae_points": 3.0145578895226786 }, { "cid": "fips:26099", "county": "Macomb", "new_votes": 4908, "reporting_advance_points": 4.26, "source": "statewide live scoreboard", "geography_level": "statewide", "effective_sample_votes": 257355, "expected_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 52.60282489168658, "Haley Stevens": 44.33642245147753, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.060752656835888 }, "actual_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 60.411572942135294, "Haley Stevens": 37.286063569682156, "Mallory McMorrow": 2.302363488182559 }, "mae_points": 5.205832033632472 }, { "cid": "fips:26093", "county": "Livingston", "new_votes": 4600, "reporting_advance_points": 10.680000000000012, "source": "statewide live scoreboard", "geography_level": "statewide", "effective_sample_votes": 257355, "expected_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 52.60282489168658, "Haley Stevens": 44.33642245147753, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.060752656835888 }, "actual_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 39.108695652173914, "Haley Stevens": 55.02173913043479, "Mallory McMorrow": 5.869565217391305 }, "mae_points": 8.996086159675116 }, { "cid": "fips:26067", "county": "Ionia", "new_votes": 4029, "reporting_advance_points": 83.69, "source": "statewide live scoreboard", "geography_level": "statewide", "effective_sample_votes": 257355, "expected_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 52.60282489168658, "Haley Stevens": 44.33642245147753, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.060752656835888 }, "actual_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 46.51278232812112, "Haley Stevens": 49.640109208240254, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.8471084636386204 }, "mae_points": 4.060028375710307 }, { "cid": "fips:26045", "county": "Eaton", "new_votes": 3567, "reporting_advance_points": 21.810000000000006, "source": "statewide live scoreboard", "geography_level": "statewide", "effective_sample_votes": 257355, "expected_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 52.60282489168658, "Haley Stevens": 44.33642245147753, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.060752656835888 }, "actual_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 39.977572189515, "Haley Stevens": 52.7614241659658, "Mallory McMorrow": 7.261003644519204 }, "mae_points": 8.416835134781058 }, { "cid": "fips:26163", "county": "Wayne", "new_votes": 2715, "reporting_advance_points": 0.9000000000000001, "source": "statewide live scoreboard", "geography_level": "statewide", "effective_sample_votes": 257355, "expected_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 52.60282489168658, "Haley Stevens": 44.33642245147753, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.060752656835888 }, "actual_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 40.0, "Haley Stevens": 56.86924493554327, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.1307550644567224 }, "mae_points": 8.401883261124386 }, { "cid": "fips:26069", "county": "Iosco", "new_votes": 2117, "reporting_advance_points": 44.879999999999995, "source": "statewide live scoreboard", "geography_level": "statewide", "effective_sample_votes": 257355, "expected_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 52.60282489168658, "Haley Stevens": 44.33642245147753, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.060752656835888 }, "actual_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 38.73405762871989, "Haley Stevens": 56.825696740670764, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.440245630609352 }, "mae_points": 9.245844841977798 }, { "cid": "fips:26033", "county": "Chippewa", "new_votes": 1541, "reporting_advance_points": 43.36, "source": "statewide live scoreboard", "geography_level": "statewide", "effective_sample_votes": 257355, "expected_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 52.60282489168658, "Haley Stevens": 44.33642245147753, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.060752656835888 }, "actual_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 49.513303049967554, "Haley Stevens": 43.413367942894226, "Mallory McMorrow": 7.073329007138223 }, "mae_points": 2.6750509002015557 }, { "cid": "fips:26139", "county": "Ottawa", "new_votes": 1351, "reporting_advance_points": 5.41, "source": "statewide live scoreboard", "geography_level": "statewide", "effective_sample_votes": 257355, "expected_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 52.60282489168658, "Haley Stevens": 44.33642245147753, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.060752656835888 }, "actual_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 52.405625462620286, "Haley Stevens": 42.635085122131755, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.959289415247965 }, "mae_points": 1.2656911722747166 }, { "cid": "fips:26027", "county": "Cass", "new_votes": 743, "reporting_advance_points": 23.08, "source": "statewide live scoreboard", "geography_level": "statewide", "effective_sample_votes": 257355, "expected_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 52.60282489168658, "Haley Stevens": 44.33642245147753, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.060752656835888 }, "actual_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 38.22341857335128, "Haley Stevens": 52.35531628532974, "Mallory McMorrow": 9.421265141318976 }, "mae_points": 9.586270878890202 }, { "cid": "fips:26041", "county": "Delta", "new_votes": 735, "reporting_advance_points": 9.229999999999993, "source": "statewide live scoreboard", "geography_level": "statewide", "effective_sample_votes": 257355, "expected_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 52.60282489168658, "Haley Stevens": 44.33642245147753, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.060752656835888 }, "actual_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 45.714285714285715, "Haley Stevens": 45.30612244897959, "Mallory McMorrow": 8.979591836734693 }, "mae_points": 4.592359451600578 } ] }, "v1": { "available": true, "mae_points": 5.391697393939039, "counties_scored": 9, "counties_skipped_noninformative": 13, "informative_votes": 53953.0, "informative_vote_coverage": 0.8210774615735809, "county_examples": [ { "cid": "fips:26125", "county": "Oakland", "new_votes": 23701, "reporting_advance_points": 6.620000000000004, "source": "county live share", "geography_level": "county", "effective_sample_votes": 142424, "expected_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 47.67595349098466, "Haley Stevens": 49.67280795371566, "Mallory McMorrow": 2.6512385552996687 }, "actual_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 48.20049786928821, "Haley Stevens": 49.07809797054977, "Mallory McMorrow": 2.7214041601620185 }, "mae_points": 0.39647332211060055 }, { "cid": "fips:26161", "county": "Washtenaw", "new_votes": 10867, "reporting_advance_points": 11.980000000000013, "source": "county live share", "geography_level": "county", "effective_sample_votes": 48060, "expected_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 67.08281315022889, "Haley Stevens": 30.730337078651687, "Mallory McMorrow": 2.186849771119434 }, "actual_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 50.87880739854606, "Haley Stevens": 41.53860311033404, "Mallory McMorrow": 7.582589491119903 }, "mae_points": 10.802670501121883 }, { "cid": "fips:26099", "county": "Macomb", "new_votes": 4908, "reporting_advance_points": 4.26, "source": "county live share", "geography_level": "county", "effective_sample_votes": 11457, "expected_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 55.26752203892816, "Haley Stevens": 41.686305315527626, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.0461726455442086 }, "actual_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 60.411572942135294, "Haley Stevens": 37.286063569682156, "Mallory McMorrow": 2.302363488182559 }, "mae_points": 3.4293672688047514 }, { "cid": "fips:26093", "county": "Livingston", "new_votes": 4600, "reporting_advance_points": 10.680000000000012, "source": "county live share", "geography_level": "county", "effective_sample_votes": 14200, "expected_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 54.394366197183096, "Haley Stevens": 42.302816901408455, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.302816901408451 }, "actual_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 39.108695652173914, "Haley Stevens": 55.02173913043479, "Mallory McMorrow": 5.869565217391305 }, "mae_points": 10.190447030006125 }, { "cid": "fips:26045", "county": "Eaton", "new_votes": 3567, "reporting_advance_points": 21.810000000000006, "source": "county live share", "geography_level": "county", "effective_sample_votes": 10127, "expected_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 51.732991014120664, "Haley Stevens": 43.0630986471808, "Mallory McMorrow": 5.203910338698528 }, "actual_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 39.977572189515, "Haley Stevens": 52.7614241659658, "Mallory McMorrow": 7.261003644519204 }, "mae_points": 7.836945883070447 }, { "cid": "fips:26163", "county": "Wayne", "new_votes": 2715, "reporting_advance_points": 0.9000000000000001, "source": "county live share", "geography_level": "county", "effective_sample_votes": 4668, "expected_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 46.89374464438732, "Haley Stevens": 50.38560411311054, "Mallory McMorrow": 2.720651242502142 }, "actual_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 40.0, "Haley Stevens": 56.86924493554327, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.1307550644567224 }, "mae_points": 4.595829762924877 }, { "cid": "fips:26069", "county": "Iosco", "new_votes": 2117, "reporting_advance_points": 44.879999999999995, "source": "county live share", "geography_level": "county", "effective_sample_votes": 908, "expected_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 37.44493392070485, "Haley Stevens": 54.40528634361234, "Mallory McMorrow": 8.149779735682818 }, "actual_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 38.73405762871989, "Haley Stevens": 56.825696740670764, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.440245630609352 }, "mae_points": 2.473022736715644 }, { "cid": "fips:26027", "county": "Cass", "new_votes": 743, "reporting_advance_points": 23.08, "source": "county live share", "geography_level": "county", "effective_sample_votes": 173, "expected_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 56.64739884393064, "Haley Stevens": 35.83815028901734, "Mallory McMorrow": 7.514450867052023 }, "actual_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 38.22341857335128, "Haley Stevens": 52.35531628532974, "Mallory McMorrow": 9.421265141318976 }, "mae_points": 12.282653513719573 }, { "cid": "fips:26041", "county": "Delta", "new_votes": 735, "reporting_advance_points": 9.229999999999993, "source": "county live share", "geography_level": "county", "effective_sample_votes": 1973, "expected_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 45.9706031424227, "Haley Stevens": 44.95691839837811, "Mallory McMorrow": 9.07247845919919 }, "actual_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 45.714285714285715, "Haley Stevens": 45.30612244897959, "Mallory McMorrow": 8.979591836734693 }, "mae_points": 0.23280270040099185 } ] }, "v3": { "available": true, "mae_points": 4.999770267836929, "counties_scored": 22, "counties_skipped_noninformative": 0, "informative_votes": 65710.0, "informative_vote_coverage": 1.0, "county_examples": [ { "cid": "fips:26125", "county": "Oakland", "new_votes": 23701, "reporting_advance_points": 6.620000000000004, "source": "v3 county remaining-vote prediction", "geography_level": "county", "effective_sample_votes": 142424, "expected_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 48.774420718369825, "Haley Stevens": 48.48303779124159, "Mallory McMorrow": 2.7425414903885628 }, "actual_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 48.20049786928821, "Haley Stevens": 49.07809797054977, "Mallory McMorrow": 2.7214041601620185 }, "mae_points": 0.3967067862054416 }, { "cid": "fips:26161", "county": "Washtenaw", "new_votes": 10867, "reporting_advance_points": 11.980000000000013, "source": "v3 county remaining-vote prediction", "geography_level": "county", "effective_sample_votes": 48060, "expected_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 63.14143157211625, "Haley Stevens": 34.433846589928194, "Mallory McMorrow": 2.4247218379555604 }, "actual_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 50.87880739854606, "Haley Stevens": 41.53860311033404, "Mallory McMorrow": 7.582589491119903 }, "mae_points": 8.175082782380127 }, { "cid": "fips:26099", "county": "Macomb", "new_votes": 4908, "reporting_advance_points": 4.26, "source": "v3 county remaining-vote prediction", "geography_level": "county", "effective_sample_votes": 11457, "expected_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 53.44294436064314, "Haley Stevens": 43.50089973429686, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.056155905060015 }, "actual_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 60.411572942135294, "Haley Stevens": 37.286063569682156, "Mallory McMorrow": 2.302363488182559 }, "mae_points": 4.645752387661436 }, { "cid": "fips:26093", "county": "Livingston", "new_votes": 4600, "reporting_advance_points": 10.680000000000012, "source": "v3 county remaining-vote prediction", "geography_level": "county", "effective_sample_votes": 14200, "expected_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 53.98985278521668, "Haley Stevens": 42.76198617488737, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.248161039895961 }, "actual_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 39.108695652173914, "Haley Stevens": 55.02173913043479, "Mallory McMorrow": 5.869565217391305 }, "mae_points": 9.920771422028508 }, { "cid": "fips:26067", "county": "Ionia", "new_votes": 4029, "reporting_advance_points": 83.69, "source": "v3 county remaining-vote prediction", "geography_level": "county", "effective_sample_votes": 0, "expected_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 52.60282489168658, "Haley Stevens": 44.33642245147753, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.060752656835888 }, "actual_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 46.51278232812112, "Haley Stevens": 49.640109208240254, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.8471084636386204 }, "mae_points": 4.060028375710307 }, { "cid": "fips:26045", "county": "Eaton", "new_votes": 3567, "reporting_advance_points": 21.810000000000006, "source": "v3 county remaining-vote prediction", "geography_level": "county", "effective_sample_votes": 10127, "expected_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 51.91835903026734, "Haley Stevens": 43.33445334329279, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.74718762643987 }, "actual_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 39.977572189515, "Haley Stevens": 52.7614241659658, "Mallory McMorrow": 7.261003644519204 }, "mae_points": 7.960524560501558 }, { "cid": "fips:26163", "county": "Wayne", "new_votes": 2715, "reporting_advance_points": 0.9000000000000001, "source": "v3 county remaining-vote prediction", "geography_level": "county", "effective_sample_votes": 4668, "expected_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 51.896650665144314, "Haley Stevens": 45.084664899661405, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.018684435194289 }, "actual_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 40.0, "Haley Stevens": 56.86924493554327, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.1307550644567224 }, "mae_points": 7.931100443429539 }, { "cid": "fips:26069", "county": "Iosco", "new_votes": 2117, "reporting_advance_points": 44.879999999999995, "source": "v3 county remaining-vote prediction", "geography_level": "county", "effective_sample_votes": 908, "expected_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 44.37835941861192, "Haley Stevens": 49.799651049208194, "Mallory McMorrow": 5.821989532179883 }, "actual_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 38.73405762871989, "Haley Stevens": 56.825696740670764, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.440245630609352 }, "mae_points": 4.684030460975045 }, { "cid": "fips:26033", "county": "Chippewa", "new_votes": 1541, "reporting_advance_points": 43.36, "source": "v3 county remaining-vote prediction", "geography_level": "county", "effective_sample_votes": 0, "expected_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 52.60282489168658, "Haley Stevens": 44.33642245147753, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.060752656835888 }, "actual_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 49.513303049967554, "Haley Stevens": 43.413367942894226, "Mallory McMorrow": 7.073329007138223 }, "mae_points": 2.675050900201556 }, { "cid": "fips:26139", "county": "Ottawa", "new_votes": 1351, "reporting_advance_points": 5.41, "source": "v3 county remaining-vote prediction", "geography_level": "county", "effective_sample_votes": 0, "expected_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 52.60282489168658, "Haley Stevens": 44.33642245147753, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.060752656835888 }, "actual_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 52.405625462620286, "Haley Stevens": 42.635085122131755, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.959289415247965 }, "mae_points": 1.2656911722747166 }, { "cid": "fips:26027", "county": "Cass", "new_votes": 743, "reporting_advance_points": 23.08, "source": "v3 county remaining-vote prediction", "geography_level": "county", "effective_sample_votes": 173, "expected_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 53.54008454783459, "Haley Stevens": 42.36709570930723, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.09281974285818 }, "actual_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 38.22341857335128, "Haley Stevens": 52.35531628532974, "Mallory McMorrow": 9.421265141318976 }, "mae_points": 10.21111064965554 }, { "cid": "fips:26041", "county": "Delta", "new_votes": 735, "reporting_advance_points": 9.229999999999993, "source": "v3 county remaining-vote prediction", "geography_level": "county", "effective_sample_votes": 1973, "expected_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 48.01842903668593, "Haley Stevens": 44.76532835278149, "Mallory McMorrow": 7.216242610532585 }, "actual_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 45.714285714285715, "Haley Stevens": 45.30612244897959, "Mallory McMorrow": 8.979591836734693 }, "mae_points": 1.5360955482668115 } ] }, "market": { "available": false, "counties_scored": 0, "counties_skipped_noninformative": 22, "informative_vote_coverage": 0.0 }, "histgeo": { "available": true, "mae_points": 4.920480237008607, "counties_scored": 22, "counties_skipped_noninformative": 0, "informative_votes": 65710.0, "informative_vote_coverage": 1.0, "county_examples": [ { "cid": "fips:26125", "county": "Oakland", "new_votes": 23701, "reporting_advance_points": 6.620000000000004, "source": "histgeo county remaining-vote prediction", "geography_level": "county", "effective_sample_votes": 142424, "expected_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 48.69347866887544, "Haley Stevens": 48.529839668247675, "Mallory McMorrow": 2.776681662876886 }, "actual_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 48.20049786928821, "Haley Stevens": 49.07809797054977, "Mallory McMorrow": 2.7214041601620185 }, "mae_points": 0.36550553486806187 }, { "cid": "fips:26161", "county": "Washtenaw", "new_votes": 10867, "reporting_advance_points": 11.980000000000013, "source": "histgeo county remaining-vote prediction", "geography_level": "county", "effective_sample_votes": 48060, "expected_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 63.60007913203789, "Haley Stevens": 34.00843811721857, "Mallory McMorrow": 2.391482750743548 }, "actual_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 50.87880739854606, "Haley Stevens": 41.53860311033404, "Mallory McMorrow": 7.582589491119903 }, "mae_points": 8.480847822327888 }, { "cid": "fips:26099", "county": "Macomb", "new_votes": 4908, "reporting_advance_points": 4.26, "source": "histgeo county remaining-vote prediction", "geography_level": "county", "effective_sample_votes": 11457, "expected_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 53.51476924794056, "Haley Stevens": 43.30514831918462, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.1800824328748174 }, "actual_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 60.411572942135294, "Haley Stevens": 37.286063569682156, "Mallory McMorrow": 2.302363488182559 }, "mae_points": 4.597869129463151 }, { "cid": "fips:26093", "county": "Livingston", "new_votes": 4600, "reporting_advance_points": 10.680000000000012, "source": "histgeo county remaining-vote prediction", "geography_level": "county", "effective_sample_votes": 14200, "expected_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 53.94640466405873, "Haley Stevens": 42.772853463021285, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.2807418729199727 }, "actual_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 39.108695652173914, "Haley Stevens": 55.02173913043479, "Mallory McMorrow": 5.869565217391305 }, "mae_points": 9.891806007923218 }, { "cid": "fips:26067", "county": "Ionia", "new_votes": 4029, "reporting_advance_points": 83.69, "source": "histgeo county remaining-vote prediction", "geography_level": "county", "effective_sample_votes": 0, "expected_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 52.8943711505234, "Haley Stevens": 43.85631920460615, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.2493096448704515 }, "actual_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 46.51278232812112, "Haley Stevens": 49.640109208240254, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.8471084636386204 }, "mae_points": 4.254392548268184 }, { "cid": "fips:26045", "county": "Eaton", "new_votes": 3567, "reporting_advance_points": 21.810000000000006, "source": "histgeo county remaining-vote prediction", "geography_level": "county", "effective_sample_votes": 10127, "expected_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 51.7646825171372, "Haley Stevens": 43.40580282400506, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.8295146588577405 }, "actual_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 39.977572189515, "Haley Stevens": 52.7614241659658, "Mallory McMorrow": 7.261003644519204 }, "mae_points": 7.858073551748136 }, { "cid": "fips:26163", "county": "Wayne", "new_votes": 2715, "reporting_advance_points": 0.9000000000000001, "source": "histgeo county remaining-vote prediction", "geography_level": "county", "effective_sample_votes": 4668, "expected_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 52.207059600865655, "Haley Stevens": 44.59428634583155, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.1986540533027923 }, "actual_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 40.0, "Haley Stevens": 56.86924493554327, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.1307550644567224 }, "mae_points": 8.183305726474483 }, { "cid": "fips:26069", "county": "Iosco", "new_votes": 2117, "reporting_advance_points": 44.879999999999995, "source": "histgeo county remaining-vote prediction", "geography_level": "county", "effective_sample_votes": 908, "expected_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 43.61331751410612, "Haley Stevens": 50.360254635317446, "Mallory McMorrow": 6.026427850576433 }, "actual_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 38.73405762871989, "Haley Stevens": 56.825696740670764, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.440245630609352 }, "mae_points": 4.310294736902209 }, { "cid": "fips:26033", "county": "Chippewa", "new_votes": 1541, "reporting_advance_points": 43.36, "source": "histgeo county remaining-vote prediction", "geography_level": "county", "effective_sample_votes": 0, "expected_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 52.345483320963716, "Haley Stevens": 44.27628031698736, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.3782363620489266 }, "actual_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 49.513303049967554, "Haley Stevens": 43.413367942894226, "Mallory McMorrow": 7.073329007138223 }, "mae_points": 2.463395096726196 }, { "cid": "fips:26139", "county": "Ottawa", "new_votes": 1351, "reporting_advance_points": 5.41, "source": "histgeo county remaining-vote prediction", "geography_level": "county", "effective_sample_votes": 0, "expected_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 52.86424584060979, "Haley Stevens": 43.94025126016644, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.195502899223765 }, "actual_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 52.405625462620286, "Haley Stevens": 42.635085122131755, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.959289415247965 }, "mae_points": 1.1758576773494633 }, { "cid": "fips:26027", "county": "Cass", "new_votes": 743, "reporting_advance_points": 23.08, "source": "histgeo county remaining-vote prediction", "geography_level": "county", "effective_sample_votes": 173, "expected_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 52.550249556123994, "Haley Stevens": 43.20712274175786, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.242627702118145 }, "actual_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 38.22341857335128, "Haley Stevens": 52.35531628532974, "Mallory McMorrow": 9.421265141318976 }, "mae_points": 9.551220655181812 }, { "cid": "fips:26041", "county": "Delta", "new_votes": 735, "reporting_advance_points": 9.229999999999993, "source": "histgeo county remaining-vote prediction", "geography_level": "county", "effective_sample_votes": 1973, "expected_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 47.64893873124314, "Haley Stevens": 44.962082230190845, "Mallory McMorrow": 7.388979038566008 }, "actual_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 45.714285714285715, "Haley Stevens": 45.30612244897959, "Mallory McMorrow": 8.979591836734693 }, "mae_points": 1.2897686779716186 } ] }, "latent": { "available": true, "mae_points": 5.01515780131375, "counties_scored": 22, "counties_skipped_noninformative": 0, "informative_votes": 65710.0, "informative_vote_coverage": 1.0, "county_examples": [ { "cid": "fips:26125", "county": "Oakland", "new_votes": 23701, "reporting_advance_points": 6.620000000000004, "source": "latent county remaining-vote prediction", "geography_level": "county", "effective_sample_votes": 142424, "expected_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 48.801529622074554, "Haley Stevens": 48.3860742216693, "Mallory McMorrow": 2.812396156256146 }, "actual_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 48.20049786928821, "Haley Stevens": 49.07809797054977, "Mallory McMorrow": 2.7214041601620185 }, "mae_points": 0.4613491659203113 }, { "cid": "fips:26161", "county": "Washtenaw", "new_votes": 10867, "reporting_advance_points": 11.980000000000013, "source": "latent county remaining-vote prediction", "geography_level": "county", "effective_sample_votes": 48060, "expected_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 63.1908934885152, "Haley Stevens": 34.301677783691474, "Mallory McMorrow": 2.5074287277933247 }, "actual_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 50.87880739854606, "Haley Stevens": 41.53860311033404, "Mallory McMorrow": 7.582589491119903 }, "mae_points": 8.208057393312762 }, { "cid": "fips:26099", "county": "Macomb", "new_votes": 4908, "reporting_advance_points": 4.26, "source": "latent county remaining-vote prediction", "geography_level": "county", "effective_sample_votes": 11457, "expected_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 53.530642546166675, "Haley Stevens": 43.199367822349, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.2699896314843184 }, "actual_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 60.411572942135294, "Haley Stevens": 37.286063569682156, "Mallory McMorrow": 2.302363488182559 }, "mae_points": 4.58728693064574 }, { "cid": "fips:26093", "county": "Livingston", "new_votes": 4600, "reporting_advance_points": 10.680000000000012, "source": "latent county remaining-vote prediction", "geography_level": "county", "effective_sample_votes": 14200, "expected_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 54.01182297167673, "Haley Stevens": 42.668409650000505, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.319767378322771 }, "actual_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 39.108695652173914, "Haley Stevens": 55.02173913043479, "Mallory McMorrow": 5.869565217391305 }, "mae_points": 9.935418213001878 }, { "cid": "fips:26067", "county": "Ionia", "new_votes": 4029, "reporting_advance_points": 83.69, "source": "latent county remaining-vote prediction", "geography_level": "county", "effective_sample_votes": 0, "expected_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 52.72175434961316, "Haley Stevens": 43.903760554128006, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.3744850962588377 }, "actual_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 46.51278232812112, "Haley Stevens": 49.640109208240254, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.8471084636386204 }, "mae_points": 4.13931468099469 }, { "cid": "fips:26045", "county": "Eaton", "new_votes": 3567, "reporting_advance_points": 21.810000000000006, "source": "latent county remaining-vote prediction", "geography_level": "county", "effective_sample_votes": 10127, "expected_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 51.9346896068174, "Haley Stevens": 43.2498454576314, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.815464935551208 }, "actual_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 39.977572189515, "Haley Stevens": 52.7614241659658, "Mallory McMorrow": 7.261003644519204 }, "mae_points": 7.97141161153493 }, { "cid": "fips:26163", "county": "Wayne", "new_votes": 2715, "reporting_advance_points": 0.9000000000000001, "source": "latent county remaining-vote prediction", "geography_level": "county", "effective_sample_votes": 4668, "expected_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 52.04366088533043, "Haley Stevens": 44.66946314941519, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.286875965254368 }, "actual_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 40.0, "Haley Stevens": 56.86924493554327, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.1307550644567224 }, "mae_points": 8.133187857418719 }, { "cid": "fips:26069", "county": "Iosco", "new_votes": 2117, "reporting_advance_points": 44.879999999999995, "source": "latent county remaining-vote prediction", "geography_level": "county", "effective_sample_votes": 908, "expected_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 44.40712494012611, "Haley Stevens": 49.62334580406637, "Mallory McMorrow": 5.969529255807505 }, "actual_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 38.73405762871989, "Haley Stevens": 56.825696740670764, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.440245630609352 }, "mae_points": 4.801567291069588 }, { "cid": "fips:26033", "county": "Chippewa", "new_votes": 1541, "reporting_advance_points": 43.36, "source": "latent county remaining-vote prediction", "geography_level": "county", "effective_sample_votes": 0, "expected_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 52.70550854069134, "Haley Stevens": 43.91744966606447, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.3770417932441905 }, "actual_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 49.513303049967554, "Haley Stevens": 43.413367942894226, "Mallory McMorrow": 7.073329007138223 }, "mae_points": 2.4641914759293533 }, { "cid": "fips:26139", "county": "Ottawa", "new_votes": 1351, "reporting_advance_points": 5.41, "source": "latent county remaining-vote prediction", "geography_level": "county", "effective_sample_votes": 0, "expected_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 52.735517012711554, "Haley Stevens": 43.89216380098358, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.3723191863048654 }, "actual_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 52.405625462620286, "Haley Stevens": 42.635085122131755, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.959289415247965 }, "mae_points": 1.05798015262873 }, { "cid": "fips:26027", "county": "Cass", "new_votes": 743, "reporting_advance_points": 23.08, "source": "latent county remaining-vote prediction", "geography_level": "county", "effective_sample_votes": 173, "expected_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 53.61763450980934, "Haley Stevens": 42.0463404628765, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.3360250273141565 }, "actual_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 38.22341857335128, "Haley Stevens": 52.35531628532974, "Mallory McMorrow": 9.421265141318976 }, "mae_points": 10.262810624305374 }, { "cid": "fips:26041", "county": "Delta", "new_votes": 735, "reporting_advance_points": 9.229999999999993, "source": "latent county remaining-vote prediction", "geography_level": "county", "effective_sample_votes": 1973, "expected_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 48.04689833235019, "Haley Stevens": 44.63868940117528, "Mallory McMorrow": 7.314412266474539 }, "actual_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 45.714285714285715, "Haley Stevens": 45.30612244897959, "Mallory McMorrow": 8.979591836734693 }, "mae_points": 1.555075078709648 } ] }, "batchbias": { "available": true, "mae_points": 3.241859202295093, "counties_scored": 2, "counties_skipped_noninformative": 20, "informative_votes": 8475.0, "informative_vote_coverage": 0.12897580276974585, "county_examples": [ { "cid": "fips:26099", "county": "Macomb", "new_votes": 4908, "reporting_advance_points": 4.26, "source": "batchbias county remaining-vote prediction", "geography_level": "county", "effective_sample_votes": 11457, "expected_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 58.47883977206854, "Haley Stevens": 38.92297444050053, "Mallory McMorrow": 2.598185787430947 }, "actual_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 60.411572942135294, "Haley Stevens": 37.286063569682156, "Mallory McMorrow": 2.302363488182559 }, "mae_points": 1.2884887800445075 }, { "cid": "fips:26045", "county": "Eaton", "new_votes": 3567, "reporting_advance_points": 21.810000000000006, "source": "batchbias county remaining-vote prediction", "geography_level": "county", "effective_sample_votes": 10127, "expected_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 48.27733769951584, "Haley Stevens": 46.59982163974802, "Mallory McMorrow": 5.122840660736137 }, "actual_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 39.977572189515, "Haley Stevens": 52.7614241659658, "Mallory McMorrow": 7.261003644519204 }, "mae_points": 5.533177006667227 } ] } } }, { "from_snapshot": 30, "from_filename": "30.json", "to_snapshot": 39, "to_filename": "39.json", "span_snapshots": 9, "matured_votes": 82541, "matured_counties": 33, "correction_votes": 0, "predictions": { "v0": { "available": true, "mae_points": 5.280702351906744, "counties_scored": 33, "counties_skipped_noninformative": 0, "informative_votes": 82541.0, "informative_vote_coverage": 1.0, "county_examples": [ { "cid": "fips:26125", "county": "Oakland", "new_votes": 14645, "reporting_advance_points": 5.909999999999993, "source": "statewide live scoreboard", "geography_level": "statewide", "effective_sample_votes": 327317, "expected_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 51.43393102099799, "Haley Stevens": 45.13758833180067, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.4284806472013365 }, "actual_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 45.27142369409355, "Haley Stevens": 51.737794469102084, "Mallory McMorrow": 2.9907818368043704 }, "mae_points": 4.400137424867607 }, { "cid": "fips:26163", "county": "Wayne", "new_votes": 13346, "reporting_advance_points": 4.379999999999999, "source": "statewide live scoreboard", "geography_level": "statewide", "effective_sample_votes": 327317, "expected_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 51.43393102099799, "Haley Stevens": 45.13758833180067, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.4284806472013365 }, "actual_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 49.303161996103704, "Haley Stevens": 47.63224936310505, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.064588640791248 }, "mae_points": 1.6631073542029196 }, { "cid": "fips:26099", "county": "Macomb", "new_votes": 10396, "reporting_advance_points": 9.030000000000001, "source": "statewide live scoreboard", "geography_level": "statewide", "effective_sample_votes": 327317, "expected_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 51.43393102099799, "Haley Stevens": 45.13758833180067, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.4284806472013365 }, "actual_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 62.899191996921886, "Haley Stevens": 34.9461331281262, "Mallory McMorrow": 2.1546748749519047 }, "mae_points": 7.6435073172826 }, { "cid": "fips:26065", "county": "Ingham", "new_votes": 8363, "reporting_advance_points": 15.160000000000002, "source": "statewide live scoreboard", "geography_level": "statewide", "effective_sample_votes": 327317, "expected_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 51.43393102099799, "Haley Stevens": 45.13758833180067, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.4284806472013365 }, "actual_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 54.07150544063135, "Haley Stevens": 40.34437402845869, "Mallory McMorrow": 5.584120530909961 }, "mae_points": 3.1954762022279897 }, { "cid": "fips:26139", "county": "Ottawa", "new_votes": 4579, "reporting_advance_points": 18.329999999999995, "source": "statewide live scoreboard", "geography_level": "statewide", "effective_sample_votes": 327317, "expected_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 51.43393102099799, "Haley Stevens": 45.13758833180067, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.4284806472013365 }, "actual_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 56.016597510373444, "Haley Stevens": 39.244376501419524, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.7390259882070325 }, "mae_points": 3.9288078869207648 }, { "cid": "fips:26111", "county": "Midland", "new_votes": 2669, "reporting_advance_points": 26.950000000000003, "source": "statewide live scoreboard", "geography_level": "statewide", "effective_sample_votes": 327317, "expected_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 51.43393102099799, "Haley Stevens": 45.13758833180067, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.4284806472013365 }, "actual_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 41.81341326339453, "Haley Stevens": 53.3158486324466, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.87073810415886 }, "mae_points": 6.413678505068974 }, { "cid": "fips:26081", "county": "Kent", "new_votes": 2610, "reporting_advance_points": 3.1500000000000057, "source": "statewide live scoreboard", "geography_level": "statewide", "effective_sample_votes": 327317, "expected_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 51.43393102099799, "Haley Stevens": 45.13758833180067, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.4284806472013365 }, "actual_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 57.08812260536399, "Haley Stevens": 39.38697318007663, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.524904214559387 }, "mae_points": 3.833743434482697 }, { "cid": "fips:26107", "county": "Mecosta", "new_votes": 2153, "reporting_advance_points": 61.83, "source": "statewide live scoreboard", "geography_level": "statewide", "effective_sample_votes": 327317, "expected_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 51.43393102099799, "Haley Stevens": 45.13758833180067, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.4284806472013365 }, "actual_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 39.386901997213194, "Haley Stevens": 55.87552252670692, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.737575476079889 }, "mae_points": 8.0313526825232 }, { "cid": "fips:26047", "county": "Emmet", "new_votes": 1991, "reporting_advance_points": 42.44, "source": "statewide live scoreboard", "geography_level": "statewide", "effective_sample_votes": 327317, "expected_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 51.43393102099799, "Haley Stevens": 45.13758833180067, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.4284806472013365 }, "actual_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 52.6368658965344, "Haley Stevens": 41.73782019085886, "Mallory McMorrow": 5.62531391260673 }, "mae_points": 2.266512093961203 }, { "cid": "fips:26155", "county": "Shiawassee", "new_votes": 1802, "reporting_advance_points": 22.32, "source": "statewide live scoreboard", "geography_level": "statewide", "effective_sample_votes": 327317, "expected_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 51.43393102099799, "Haley Stevens": 45.13758833180067, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.4284806472013365 }, "actual_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 36.90344062153163, "Haley Stevens": 55.04994450610433, "Mallory McMorrow": 8.04661487236404 }, "mae_points": 9.686993599644241 }, { "cid": "fips:26027", "county": "Cass", "new_votes": 1784, "reporting_advance_points": 55.39999999999999, "source": "statewide live scoreboard", "geography_level": "statewide", "effective_sample_votes": 327317, "expected_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 51.43393102099799, "Haley Stevens": 45.13758833180067, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.4284806472013365 }, "actual_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 44.955156950672645, "Haley Stevens": 45.403587443946186, "Mallory McMorrow": 9.641255605381167 }, "mae_points": 4.319182713550229 }, { "cid": "fips:26137", "county": "Otsego", "new_votes": 1730, "reporting_advance_points": 70.99, "source": "statewide live scoreboard", "geography_level": "statewide", "effective_sample_votes": 327317, "expected_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 51.43393102099799, "Haley Stevens": 45.13758833180067, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.4284806472013365 }, "actual_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 46.06936416184971, "Haley Stevens": 49.07514450867052, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.855491329479769 }, "mae_points": 3.5763779060988536 } ] }, "v1": { "available": true, "mae_points": 4.016828365564874, "counties_scored": 18, "counties_skipped_noninformative": 15, "informative_votes": 58586.0, "informative_vote_coverage": 0.7097805938866745, "county_examples": [ { "cid": "fips:26125", "county": "Oakland", "new_votes": 14645, "reporting_advance_points": 5.909999999999993, "source": "county live share", "geography_level": "county", "effective_sample_votes": 166125, "expected_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 47.75079006772009, "Haley Stevens": 49.58796087283672, "Mallory McMorrow": 2.66124905944319 }, "actual_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 45.27142369409355, "Haley Stevens": 51.737794469102084, "Mallory McMorrow": 2.9907818368043704 }, "mae_points": 1.6529109157510287 }, { "cid": "fips:26163", "county": "Wayne", "new_votes": 13346, "reporting_advance_points": 4.379999999999999, "source": "county live share", "geography_level": "county", "effective_sample_votes": 7383, "expected_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 44.35866179060003, "Haley Stevens": 52.76987674387106, "Mallory McMorrow": 2.8714614655289177 }, "actual_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 49.303161996103704, "Haley Stevens": 47.63224936310505, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.064588640791248 }, "mae_points": 3.4250849205106704 }, { "cid": "fips:26099", "county": "Macomb", "new_votes": 10396, "reporting_advance_points": 9.030000000000001, "source": "county live share", "geography_level": "county", "effective_sample_votes": 16365, "expected_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 56.810265811182404, "Haley Stevens": 40.366636113657194, "Mallory McMorrow": 2.823098075160403 }, "actual_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 62.899191996921886, "Haley Stevens": 34.9461331281262, "Mallory McMorrow": 2.1546748749519047 }, "mae_points": 4.059284123826326 }, { "cid": "fips:26139", "county": "Ottawa", "new_votes": 4579, "reporting_advance_points": 18.329999999999995, "source": "county live share", "geography_level": "county", "effective_sample_votes": 1351, "expected_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 52.405625462620286, "Haley Stevens": 42.635085122131755, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.959289415247965 }, "actual_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 56.016597510373444, "Haley Stevens": 39.244376501419524, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.7390259882070325 }, "mae_points": 2.4073146985021063 }, { "cid": "fips:26081", "county": "Kent", "new_votes": 2610, "reporting_advance_points": 3.1500000000000057, "source": "county live share", "geography_level": "county", "effective_sample_votes": 18447, "expected_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 53.14685314685315, "Haley Stevens": 40.90638044126416, "Mallory McMorrow": 5.946766411882691 }, "actual_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 57.08812260536399, "Haley Stevens": 39.38697318007663, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.524904214559387 }, "mae_points": 2.6275129723405604 }, { "cid": "fips:26047", "county": "Emmet", "new_votes": 1991, "reporting_advance_points": 42.44, "source": "county live share", "geography_level": "county", "effective_sample_votes": 362, "expected_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 62.430939226519335, "Haley Stevens": 33.70165745856354, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.867403314917127 }, "actual_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 52.6368658965344, "Haley Stevens": 41.73782019085886, "Mallory McMorrow": 5.62531391260673 }, "mae_points": 6.529382219989954 }, { "cid": "fips:26027", "county": "Cass", "new_votes": 1784, "reporting_advance_points": 55.39999999999999, "source": "county live share", "geography_level": "county", "effective_sample_votes": 916, "expected_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 41.70305676855895, "Haley Stevens": 49.23580786026201, "Mallory McMorrow": 9.06113537117904 }, "actual_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 44.955156950672645, "Haley Stevens": 45.403587443946186, "Mallory McMorrow": 9.641255605381167 }, "mae_points": 2.554813610877216 }, { "cid": "fips:26117", "county": "Montcalm", "new_votes": 1430, "reporting_advance_points": 28.139999999999997, "source": "county live share", "geography_level": "county", "effective_sample_votes": 659, "expected_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 46.13050075872534, "Haley Stevens": 48.10318664643399, "Mallory McMorrow": 5.7663125948406675 }, "actual_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 36.92307692307693, "Haley Stevens": 59.3006993006993, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.7762237762237763 }, "mae_points": 7.465008436176872 }, { "cid": "fips:26031", "county": "Cheboygan", "new_votes": 1333, "reporting_advance_points": 47.089999999999996, "source": "county live share", "geography_level": "county", "effective_sample_votes": 288, "expected_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 46.875, "Haley Stevens": 48.95833333333333, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.166666666666666 }, "actual_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 41.035258814703674, "Haley Stevens": 54.46361590397599, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.50112528132033 }, "mae_points": 3.89316079019755 }, { "cid": "fips:26067", "county": "Ionia", "new_votes": 1112, "reporting_advance_points": 0.0, "source": "county live share", "geography_level": "county", "effective_sample_votes": 4029, "expected_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 46.51278232812112, "Haley Stevens": 49.640109208240254, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.8471084636386204 }, "actual_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 52.248201438848916, "Haley Stevens": 42.985611510791365, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.766187050359712 }, "mae_points": 4.43633179829926 }, { "cid": "fips:26145", "county": "Saginaw", "new_votes": 1017, "reporting_advance_points": 3.81, "source": "county live share", "geography_level": "county", "effective_sample_votes": 1027, "expected_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 51.80136319376826, "Haley Stevens": 45.95910418695229, "Mallory McMorrow": 2.239532619279455 }, "actual_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 35.88987217305801, "Haley Stevens": 58.50540806293019, "Mallory McMorrow": 5.604719764011799 }, "mae_points": 10.607660680473497 }, { "cid": "fips:26165", "county": "Wexford", "new_votes": 919, "reporting_advance_points": 34.37, "source": "county live share", "geography_level": "county", "effective_sample_votes": 275, "expected_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 45.81818181818182, "Haley Stevens": 48.72727272727273, "Mallory McMorrow": 5.454545454545454 }, "actual_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 43.41675734494015, "Haley Stevens": 52.66594124047879, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.917301414581066 }, "mae_points": 2.6257790088040385 } ] }, "v3": { "available": true, "mae_points": 4.663952296277272, "counties_scored": 33, "counties_skipped_noninformative": 0, "informative_votes": 82541.0, "informative_vote_coverage": 1.0, "county_examples": [ { "cid": "fips:26125", "county": "Oakland", "new_votes": 14645, "reporting_advance_points": 5.909999999999993, "source": "v3 county remaining-vote prediction", "geography_level": "county", "effective_sample_votes": 166125, "expected_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 48.48741825837567, "Haley Stevens": 48.697886364629504, "Mallory McMorrow": 2.8146953769948193 }, "actual_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 45.27142369409355, "Haley Stevens": 51.737794469102084, "Mallory McMorrow": 2.9907818368043704 }, "mae_points": 2.143996376188083 }, { "cid": "fips:26163", "county": "Wayne", "new_votes": 13346, "reporting_advance_points": 4.379999999999999, "source": "v3 county remaining-vote prediction", "geography_level": "county", "effective_sample_votes": 7383, "expected_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 50.33100570041298, "Haley Stevens": 46.32734434949593, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.3416499500911008 }, "actual_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 49.303161996103704, "Haley Stevens": 47.63224936310505, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.064588640791248 }, "mae_points": 0.869936675739417 }, { "cid": "fips:26099", "county": "Macomb", "new_votes": 10396, "reporting_advance_points": 9.030000000000001, "source": "v3 county remaining-vote prediction", "geography_level": "county", "effective_sample_votes": 16365, "expected_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 53.45988920423203, "Haley Stevens": 43.339755781303055, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.200355014464927 }, "actual_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 62.899191996921886, "Haley Stevens": 34.9461331281262, "Mallory McMorrow": 2.1546748749519047 }, "mae_points": 6.292868528459912 }, { "cid": "fips:26065", "county": "Ingham", "new_votes": 8363, "reporting_advance_points": 15.160000000000002, "source": "v3 county remaining-vote prediction", "geography_level": "county", "effective_sample_votes": 0, "expected_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 51.43393102099799, "Haley Stevens": 45.13758833180067, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.4284806472013365 }, "actual_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 54.07150544063135, "Haley Stevens": 40.34437402845869, "Mallory McMorrow": 5.584120530909961 }, "mae_points": 3.1954762022279897 }, { "cid": "fips:26139", "county": "Ottawa", "new_votes": 4579, "reporting_advance_points": 18.329999999999995, "source": "v3 county remaining-vote prediction", "geography_level": "county", "effective_sample_votes": 1351, "expected_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 51.65994138304869, "Haley Stevens": 44.55552093260259, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.7845376843487135 }, "actual_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 56.016597510373444, "Haley Stevens": 39.244376501419524, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.7390259882070325 }, "mae_points": 3.5407629541220453 }, { "cid": "fips:26111", "county": "Midland", "new_votes": 2669, "reporting_advance_points": 26.950000000000003, "source": "v3 county remaining-vote prediction", "geography_level": "county", "effective_sample_votes": 0, "expected_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 51.43393102099799, "Haley Stevens": 45.13758833180067, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.4284806472013365 }, "actual_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 41.81341326339453, "Haley Stevens": 53.3158486324466, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.87073810415886 }, "mae_points": 6.413678505068974 }, { "cid": "fips:26081", "county": "Kent", "new_votes": 2610, "reporting_advance_points": 3.1500000000000057, "source": "v3 county remaining-vote prediction", "geography_level": "county", "effective_sample_votes": 18447, "expected_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 52.241369879918, "Haley Stevens": 43.143077536814864, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.615552583267133 }, "actual_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 57.08812260536399, "Haley Stevens": 39.38697318007663, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.524904214559387 }, "mae_points": 3.231168483630658 }, { "cid": "fips:26107", "county": "Mecosta", "new_votes": 2153, "reporting_advance_points": 61.83, "source": "v3 county remaining-vote prediction", "geography_level": "county", "effective_sample_votes": 0, "expected_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 51.43393102099799, "Haley Stevens": 45.13758833180067, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.4284806472013365 }, "actual_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 39.386901997213194, "Haley Stevens": 55.87552252670692, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.737575476079889 }, "mae_points": 8.0313526825232 }, { "cid": "fips:26047", "county": "Emmet", "new_votes": 1991, "reporting_advance_points": 42.44, "source": "v3 county remaining-vote prediction", "geography_level": "county", "effective_sample_votes": 362, "expected_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 54.489437431932494, "Haley Stevens": 41.960127749327334, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.550434818740167 }, "actual_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 52.6368658965344, "Haley Stevens": 41.73782019085886, "Mallory McMorrow": 5.62531391260673 }, "mae_points": 1.3832527292443766 }, { "cid": "fips:26155", "county": "Shiawassee", "new_votes": 1802, "reporting_advance_points": 22.32, "source": "v3 county remaining-vote prediction", "geography_level": "county", "effective_sample_votes": 0, "expected_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 51.43393102099799, "Haley Stevens": 45.13758833180067, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.4284806472013365 }, "actual_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 36.90344062153163, "Haley Stevens": 55.04994450610433, "Mallory McMorrow": 8.04661487236404 }, "mae_points": 9.686993599644241 }, { "cid": "fips:26027", "county": "Cass", "new_votes": 1784, "reporting_advance_points": 55.39999999999999, "source": "v3 county remaining-vote prediction", "geography_level": "county", "effective_sample_votes": 916, "expected_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 46.24362462807433, "Haley Stevens": 47.3235188521592, "Mallory McMorrow": 6.432856519766469 }, "actual_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 44.955156950672645, "Haley Stevens": 45.403587443946186, "Mallory McMorrow": 9.641255605381167 }, "mae_points": 2.13893272374313 }, { "cid": "fips:26137", "county": "Otsego", "new_votes": 1730, "reporting_advance_points": 70.99, "source": "v3 county remaining-vote prediction", "geography_level": "county", "effective_sample_votes": 0, "expected_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 51.43393102099799, "Haley Stevens": 45.13758833180067, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.4284806472013365 }, "actual_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 46.06936416184971, "Haley Stevens": 49.07514450867052, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.855491329479769 }, "mae_points": 3.5763779060988536 } ] }, "market": { "available": false, "counties_scored": 0, "counties_skipped_noninformative": 33, "informative_vote_coverage": 0.0 }, "histgeo": { "available": true, "mae_points": 4.410163257140813, "counties_scored": 33, "counties_skipped_noninformative": 0, "informative_votes": 82541.0, "informative_vote_coverage": 1.0, "county_examples": [ { "cid": "fips:26125", "county": "Oakland", "new_votes": 14645, "reporting_advance_points": 5.909999999999993, "source": "histgeo county remaining-vote prediction", "geography_level": "county", "effective_sample_votes": 166125, "expected_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 48.32871939543445, "Haley Stevens": 48.83016759003204, "Mallory McMorrow": 2.8411130145335104 }, "actual_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 45.27142369409355, "Haley Stevens": 51.737794469102084, "Mallory McMorrow": 2.9907818368043704 }, "mae_points": 2.038197134227267 }, { "cid": "fips:26163", "county": "Wayne", "new_votes": 13346, "reporting_advance_points": 4.379999999999999, "source": "histgeo county remaining-vote prediction", "geography_level": "county", "effective_sample_votes": 7383, "expected_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 50.3345836296892, "Haley Stevens": 46.0759150896536, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.5895012806572044 }, "actual_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 49.303161996103704, "Haley Stevens": 47.63224936310505, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.064588640791248 }, "mae_points": 1.0375561823009682 }, { "cid": "fips:26099", "county": "Macomb", "new_votes": 10396, "reporting_advance_points": 9.030000000000001, "source": "histgeo county remaining-vote prediction", "geography_level": "county", "effective_sample_votes": 16365, "expected_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 53.30019660952542, "Haley Stevens": 43.319203050959764, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.380600339514811 }, "actual_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 62.899191996921886, "Haley Stevens": 34.9461331281262, "Mallory McMorrow": 2.1546748749519047 }, "mae_points": 6.399330258264315 }, { "cid": "fips:26065", "county": "Ingham", "new_votes": 8363, "reporting_advance_points": 15.160000000000002, "source": "histgeo county remaining-vote prediction", "geography_level": "county", "effective_sample_votes": 0, "expected_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 51.88746953321656, "Haley Stevens": 44.338847524802596, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.7736829419808493 }, "actual_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 54.07150544063135, "Haley Stevens": 40.34437402845869, "Mallory McMorrow": 5.584120530909961 }, "mae_points": 2.662982330895938 }, { "cid": "fips:26139", "county": "Ottawa", "new_votes": 4579, "reporting_advance_points": 18.329999999999995, "source": "histgeo county remaining-vote prediction", "geography_level": "county", "effective_sample_votes": 1351, "expected_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 51.87988745595457, "Haley Stevens": 44.15583927990323, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.964273264142203 }, "actual_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 56.016597510373444, "Haley Stevens": 39.244376501419524, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.7390259882070325 }, "mae_points": 3.274308518989138 }, { "cid": "fips:26111", "county": "Midland", "new_votes": 2669, "reporting_advance_points": 26.950000000000003, "source": "histgeo county remaining-vote prediction", "geography_level": "county", "effective_sample_votes": 0, "expected_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 50.700220809397514, "Haley Stevens": 45.536997499975705, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.762781690626783 }, "actual_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 41.81341326339453, "Haley Stevens": 53.3158486324466, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.87073810415886 }, "mae_points": 5.924538364001988 }, { "cid": "fips:26081", "county": "Kent", "new_votes": 2610, "reporting_advance_points": 3.1500000000000057, "source": "histgeo county remaining-vote prediction", "geography_level": "county", "effective_sample_votes": 18447, "expected_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 52.90943691314155, "Haley Stevens": 42.38132876659196, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.709234320266497 }, "actual_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 57.08812260536399, "Haley Stevens": 39.38697318007663, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.524904214559387 }, "mae_points": 2.785790461481628 }, { "cid": "fips:26107", "county": "Mecosta", "new_votes": 2153, "reporting_advance_points": 61.83, "source": "histgeo county remaining-vote prediction", "geography_level": "county", "effective_sample_votes": 0, "expected_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 51.07425168025299, "Haley Stevens": 45.13585652938321, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.789891790363795 }, "actual_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 39.386901997213194, "Haley Stevens": 55.87552252670692, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.737575476079889 }, "mae_points": 7.791566455359868 }, { "cid": "fips:26047", "county": "Emmet", "new_votes": 1991, "reporting_advance_points": 42.44, "source": "histgeo county remaining-vote prediction", "geography_level": "county", "effective_sample_votes": 362, "expected_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 54.258603529644844, "Haley Stevens": 41.97692172812461, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.764474742230542 }, "actual_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 52.6368658965344, "Haley Stevens": 41.73782019085886, "Mallory McMorrow": 5.62531391260673 }, "mae_points": 1.2405594469174588 }, { "cid": "fips:26155", "county": "Shiawassee", "new_votes": 1802, "reporting_advance_points": 22.32, "source": "histgeo county remaining-vote prediction", "geography_level": "county", "effective_sample_votes": 0, "expected_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 50.530907057219835, "Haley Stevens": 45.59111656051926, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.8779763822608984 }, "actual_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 36.90344062153163, "Haley Stevens": 55.04994450610433, "Mallory McMorrow": 8.04661487236404 }, "mae_points": 9.084977623792138 }, { "cid": "fips:26027", "county": "Cass", "new_votes": 1784, "reporting_advance_points": 55.39999999999999, "source": "histgeo county remaining-vote prediction", "geography_level": "county", "effective_sample_votes": 916, "expected_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 45.51895406315188, "Haley Stevens": 47.93507751167501, "Mallory McMorrow": 6.545968425173114 }, "actual_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 44.955156950672645, "Haley Stevens": 45.403587443946186, "Mallory McMorrow": 9.641255605381167 }, "mae_points": 2.063524786805371 }, { "cid": "fips:26137", "county": "Otsego", "new_votes": 1730, "reporting_advance_points": 70.99, "source": "histgeo county remaining-vote prediction", "geography_level": "county", "effective_sample_votes": 0, "expected_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 50.757385290100444, "Haley Stevens": 45.40562868362673, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.8369860262728173 }, "actual_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 46.06936416184971, "Haley Stevens": 49.07514450867052, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.855491329479769 }, "mae_points": 3.1253474188338237 } ] }, "latent": { "available": true, "mae_points": 4.5428344165257935, "counties_scored": 33, "counties_skipped_noninformative": 0, "informative_votes": 82541.0, "informative_vote_coverage": 1.0, "county_examples": [ { "cid": "fips:26125", "county": "Oakland", "new_votes": 14645, "reporting_advance_points": 5.909999999999993, "source": "latent county remaining-vote prediction", "geography_level": "county", "effective_sample_votes": 166125, "expected_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 48.31846210288502, "Haley Stevens": 48.76918523958118, "Mallory McMorrow": 2.9123526575338015 }, "actual_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 45.27142369409355, "Haley Stevens": 51.737794469102084, "Mallory McMorrow": 2.9907818368043704 }, "mae_points": 2.031358939194317 }, { "cid": "fips:26163", "county": "Wayne", "new_votes": 13346, "reporting_advance_points": 4.379999999999999, "source": "latent county remaining-vote prediction", "geography_level": "county", "effective_sample_votes": 7383, "expected_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 49.918868132379735, "Haley Stevens": 46.22781957272329, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.853312294896975 }, "actual_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 49.303161996103704, "Haley Stevens": 47.63224936310505, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.064588640791248 }, "mae_points": 0.9362865269211743 }, { "cid": "fips:26099", "county": "Macomb", "new_votes": 10396, "reporting_advance_points": 9.030000000000001, "source": "latent county remaining-vote prediction", "geography_level": "county", "effective_sample_votes": 16365, "expected_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 53.119948621815226, "Haley Stevens": 43.29640249950546, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.5836488786793153 }, "actual_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 62.899191996921886, "Haley Stevens": 34.9461331281262, "Mallory McMorrow": 2.1546748749519047 }, "mae_points": 6.519495583404443 }, { "cid": "fips:26065", "county": "Ingham", "new_votes": 8363, "reporting_advance_points": 15.160000000000002, "source": "latent county remaining-vote prediction", "geography_level": "county", "effective_sample_votes": 0, "expected_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 50.87841458141992, "Haley Stevens": 45.076474773940596, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.045110644639487 }, "actual_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 54.07150544063135, "Haley Stevens": 40.34437402845869, "Mallory McMorrow": 5.584120530909961 }, "mae_points": 3.154733830321272 }, { "cid": "fips:26139", "county": "Ottawa", "new_votes": 4579, "reporting_advance_points": 18.329999999999995, "source": "latent county remaining-vote prediction", "geography_level": "county", "effective_sample_votes": 1351, "expected_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 51.24642877155671, "Haley Stevens": 44.49782084560908, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.255750382834212 }, "actual_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 56.016597510373444, "Haley Stevens": 39.244376501419524, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.7390259882070325 }, "mae_points": 3.502296229459703 }, { "cid": "fips:26111", "county": "Midland", "new_votes": 2669, "reporting_advance_points": 26.950000000000003, "source": "latent county remaining-vote prediction", "geography_level": "county", "effective_sample_votes": 0, "expected_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 50.84866167240849, "Haley Stevens": 45.101593308078535, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.049745019512974 }, "actual_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 41.81341326339453, "Haley Stevens": 53.3158486324466, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.87073810415886 }, "mae_points": 6.02349893934264 }, { "cid": "fips:26081", "county": "Kent", "new_votes": 2610, "reporting_advance_points": 3.1500000000000057, "source": "latent county remaining-vote prediction", "geography_level": "county", "effective_sample_votes": 18447, "expected_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 51.98309354132995, "Haley Stevens": 43.080902410632525, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.936004048037518 }, "actual_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 57.08812260536399, "Haley Stevens": 39.38697318007663, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.524904214559387 }, "mae_points": 3.4033527093560223 }, { "cid": "fips:26107", "county": "Mecosta", "new_votes": 2153, "reporting_advance_points": 61.83, "source": "latent county remaining-vote prediction", "geography_level": "county", "effective_sample_votes": 0, "expected_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 50.85819780006536, "Haley Stevens": 45.09354254746212, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.048259652472513 }, "actual_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 39.386901997213194, "Haley Stevens": 55.87552252670692, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.737575476079889 }, "mae_points": 7.647530535234782 }, { "cid": "fips:26047", "county": "Emmet", "new_votes": 1991, "reporting_advance_points": 42.44, "source": "latent county remaining-vote prediction", "geography_level": "county", "effective_sample_votes": 362, "expected_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 54.06617436674848, "Haley Stevens": 41.934649013950455, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.999176619301063 }, "actual_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 52.6368658965344, "Haley Stevens": 41.73782019085886, "Mallory McMorrow": 5.62531391260673 }, "mae_points": 1.0840915288704434 }, { "cid": "fips:26155", "county": "Shiawassee", "new_votes": 1802, "reporting_advance_points": 22.32, "source": "latent county remaining-vote prediction", "geography_level": "county", "effective_sample_votes": 0, "expected_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 50.83204463384878, "Haley Stevens": 45.11562204221587, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.0523333239353505 }, "actual_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 36.90344062153163, "Haley Stevens": 55.04994450610433, "Mallory McMorrow": 8.04661487236404 }, "mae_points": 9.285736008211435 }, { "cid": "fips:26027", "county": "Cass", "new_votes": 1784, "reporting_advance_points": 55.39999999999999, "source": "latent county remaining-vote prediction", "geography_level": "county", "effective_sample_votes": 916, "expected_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 45.97081654580109, "Haley Stevens": 47.306480640972296, "Mallory McMorrow": 6.722702813226619 }, "actual_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 44.955156950672645, "Haley Stevens": 45.403587443946186, "Mallory McMorrow": 9.641255605381167 }, "mae_points": 1.9457018614363675 }, { "cid": "fips:26137", "county": "Otsego", "new_votes": 1730, "reporting_advance_points": 70.99, "source": "latent county remaining-vote prediction", "geography_level": "county", "effective_sample_votes": 0, "expected_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 50.840784518946904, "Haley Stevens": 45.108243499764285, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.050971981288809 }, "actual_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 46.06936416184971, "Haley Stevens": 49.07514450867052, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.855491329479769 }, "mae_points": 3.1809469047314622 } ] }, "batchbias": { "available": true, "mae_points": 2.7400600097930354, "counties_scored": 3, "counties_skipped_noninformative": 30, "informative_votes": 14902.0, "informative_vote_coverage": 0.18054057983305266, "county_examples": [ { "cid": "fips:26163", "county": "Wayne", "new_votes": 13346, "reporting_advance_points": 4.379999999999999, "source": "batchbias county remaining-vote prediction", "geography_level": "county", "effective_sample_votes": 7383, "expected_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 48.16203802853781, "Haley Stevens": 48.401091631392475, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.436870340069725 }, "actual_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 49.303161996103704, "Haley Stevens": 47.63224936310505, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.064588640791248 }, "mae_points": 0.7607493117105979 }, { "cid": "fips:26145", "county": "Saginaw", "new_votes": 1017, "reporting_advance_points": 3.81, "source": "batchbias county remaining-vote prediction", "geography_level": "county", "effective_sample_votes": 1027, "expected_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 49.35817910590666, "Haley Stevens": 47.33128727031044, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.3105336237828973 }, "actual_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 35.88987217305801, "Haley Stevens": 58.50540806293019, "Mallory McMorrow": 5.604719764011799 }, "mae_points": 8.978871288565765 }, { "cid": "fips:26057", "county": "Gratiot", "new_votes": 539, "reporting_advance_points": 15.410000000000002, "source": "batchbias county remaining-vote prediction", "geography_level": "county", "effective_sample_votes": 601, "expected_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 48.70068780504738, "Haley Stevens": 46.39234732336443, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.906964871588189 }, "actual_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 42.67161410018553, "Haley Stevens": 50.649350649350644, "Mallory McMorrow": 6.679035250463822 }, "mae_points": 4.019382469907899 } ] } } }, { "from_snapshot": 39, "from_filename": "39.json", "to_snapshot": 48, "to_filename": "48.json", "span_snapshots": 9, "matured_votes": 151477, "matured_counties": 47, "correction_votes": 0, "predictions": { "v0": { "available": true, "mae_points": 7.673071411769994, "counties_scored": 47, "counties_skipped_noninformative": 0, "informative_votes": 151477.0, "informative_vote_coverage": 1.0, "county_examples": [ { "cid": "fips:26163", "county": "Wayne", "new_votes": 49157, "reporting_advance_points": 16.16, "source": "statewide live scoreboard", "geography_level": "statewide", "effective_sample_votes": 414355, "expected_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 50.967889852903916, "Haley Stevens": 45.429885001991046, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.6022251451050424 }, "actual_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 28.76497752100413, "Haley Stevens": 67.39426734747849, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.840755131517383 }, "mae_points": 14.801941554599853 }, { "cid": "fips:26081", "county": "Kent", "new_votes": 23536, "reporting_advance_points": 28.34, "source": "statewide live scoreboard", "geography_level": "statewide", "effective_sample_votes": 414355, "expected_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 50.967889852903916, "Haley Stevens": 45.429885001991046, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.6022251451050424 }, "actual_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 74.57087015635622, "Haley Stevens": 23.504418762746432, "Mallory McMorrow": 1.9247110808973487 }, "mae_points": 15.735320202301537 }, { "cid": "fips:26065", "county": "Ingham", "new_votes": 10518, "reporting_advance_points": 19.069999999999997, "source": "statewide live scoreboard", "geography_level": "statewide", "effective_sample_votes": 414355, "expected_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 50.967889852903916, "Haley Stevens": 45.429885001991046, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.6022251451050424 }, "actual_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 74.51036318691766, "Haley Stevens": 23.217341699942956, "Mallory McMorrow": 2.27229511313938 }, "mae_points": 15.694982222675833 }, { "cid": "fips:26125", "county": "Oakland", "new_votes": 8891, "reporting_advance_points": 3.5799999999999943, "source": "statewide live scoreboard", "geography_level": "statewide", "effective_sample_votes": 414355, "expected_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 50.967889852903916, "Haley Stevens": 45.429885001991046, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.6022251451050424 }, "actual_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 46.69890900911034, "Haley Stevens": 49.81441907546957, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.486671915420088 }, "mae_points": 2.9230227156523547 }, { "cid": "fips:26147", "county": "St. Clair", "new_votes": 5847, "reporting_advance_points": 32.78, "source": "statewide live scoreboard", "geography_level": "statewide", "effective_sample_votes": 414355, "expected_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 50.967889852903916, "Haley Stevens": 45.429885001991046, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.6022251451050424 }, "actual_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 43.5608004104669, "Haley Stevens": 52.14639986317769, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.292799726355396 }, "mae_points": 4.938059628291338 }, { "cid": "fips:26099", "county": "Macomb", "new_votes": 4815, "reporting_advance_points": 4.180000000000001, "source": "statewide live scoreboard", "geography_level": "statewide", "effective_sample_votes": 414355, "expected_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 50.967889852903916, "Haley Stevens": 45.429885001991046, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.6022251451050424 }, "actual_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 41.76531671858775, "Haley Stevens": 54.47559709241953, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.7590861889927307 }, "mae_points": 6.135048756210779 }, { "cid": "fips:26139", "county": "Ottawa", "new_votes": 3697, "reporting_advance_points": 14.790000000000006, "source": "statewide live scoreboard", "geography_level": "statewide", "effective_sample_votes": 414355, "expected_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 50.967889852903916, "Haley Stevens": 45.429885001991046, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.6022251451050424 }, "actual_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 51.06843386529618, "Haley Stevens": 44.76602650797945, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.165539626724371 }, "mae_points": 0.44257232934106494 }, { "cid": "fips:26029", "county": "Charlevoix", "new_votes": 2879, "reporting_advance_points": 83.62, "source": "statewide live scoreboard", "geography_level": "statewide", "effective_sample_votes": 414355, "expected_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 50.967889852903916, "Haley Stevens": 45.429885001991046, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.6022251451050424 }, "actual_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 48.66273011462313, "Haley Stevens": 46.960750260507126, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.376519624869746 }, "mae_points": 1.536773158853855 }, { "cid": "fips:26115", "county": "Monroe", "new_votes": 2796, "reporting_advance_points": 17.750000000000004, "source": "statewide live scoreboard", "geography_level": "statewide", "effective_sample_votes": 414355, "expected_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 50.967889852903916, "Haley Stevens": 45.429885001991046, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.6022251451050424 }, "actual_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 44.20600858369099, "Haley Stevens": 50.82260371959942, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.971387696709585 }, "mae_points": 4.50792084614195 }, { "cid": "fips:26015", "county": "Barry", "new_votes": 2664, "reporting_advance_points": 45.190000000000005, "source": "statewide live scoreboard", "geography_level": "statewide", "effective_sample_votes": 414355, "expected_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 50.967889852903916, "Haley Stevens": 45.429885001991046, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.6022251451050424 }, "actual_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 40.57807807807808, "Haley Stevens": 53.9039039039039, "Mallory McMorrow": 5.518018018018018 }, "mae_points": 6.926541183217223 }, { "cid": "fips:26145", "county": "Saginaw", "new_votes": 2388, "reporting_advance_points": 8.940000000000001, "source": "statewide live scoreboard", "geography_level": "statewide", "effective_sample_votes": 414355, "expected_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 50.967889852903916, "Haley Stevens": 45.429885001991046, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.6022251451050424 }, "actual_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 43.84422110552764, "Haley Stevens": 50.67001675041875, "Mallory McMorrow": 5.485762144053601 }, "mae_points": 4.74911249825085 }, { "cid": "fips:26157", "county": "Tuscola", "new_votes": 2125, "reporting_advance_points": 41.07, "source": "statewide live scoreboard", "geography_level": "statewide", "effective_sample_votes": 414355, "expected_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 50.967889852903916, "Haley Stevens": 45.429885001991046, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.6022251451050424 }, "actual_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 36.98823529411765, "Haley Stevens": 56.32941176470588, "Mallory McMorrow": 6.682352941176471 }, "mae_points": 9.319769705857512 } ] }, "v1": { "available": true, "mae_points": 6.834870620547476, "counties_scored": 35, "counties_skipped_noninformative": 12, "informative_votes": 139816.0, "informative_vote_coverage": 0.9230180159364128, "county_examples": [ { "cid": "fips:26163", "county": "Wayne", "new_votes": 49157, "reporting_advance_points": 16.16, "source": "county live share", "geography_level": "county", "effective_sample_votes": 20729, "expected_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 47.54209079067972, "Haley Stevens": 49.46210622798977, "Mallory McMorrow": 2.9958029813305034 }, "actual_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 28.76497752100413, "Haley Stevens": 67.39426734747849, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.840755131517383 }, "mae_points": 12.518075513117063 }, { "cid": "fips:26081", "county": "Kent", "new_votes": 23536, "reporting_advance_points": 28.34, "source": "county live share", "geography_level": "county", "effective_sample_votes": 21057, "expected_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 53.63537066058793, "Haley Stevens": 40.71805100441658, "Mallory McMorrow": 5.646578334995488 }, "actual_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 74.57087015635622, "Haley Stevens": 23.504418762746432, "Mallory McMorrow": 1.9247110808973487 }, "mae_points": 13.956999663845524 }, { "cid": "fips:26065", "county": "Ingham", "new_votes": 10518, "reporting_advance_points": 19.069999999999997, "source": "county live share", "geography_level": "county", "effective_sample_votes": 8363, "expected_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 54.07150544063135, "Haley Stevens": 40.34437402845869, "Mallory McMorrow": 5.584120530909961 }, "actual_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 74.51036318691766, "Haley Stevens": 23.217341699942956, "Mallory McMorrow": 2.27229511313938 }, "mae_points": 13.625905164190874 }, { "cid": "fips:26125", "county": "Oakland", "new_votes": 8891, "reporting_advance_points": 3.5799999999999943, "source": "county live share", "geography_level": "county", "effective_sample_votes": 180770, "expected_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 47.54992531946672, "Haley Stevens": 49.76212867179289, "Mallory McMorrow": 2.687946008740388 }, "actual_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 46.69890900911034, "Haley Stevens": 49.81441907546957, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.486671915420088 }, "mae_points": 0.5673442069042582 }, { "cid": "fips:26147", "county": "St. Clair", "new_votes": 5847, "reporting_advance_points": 32.78, "source": "county live share", "geography_level": "county", "effective_sample_votes": 362, "expected_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 37.84530386740331, "Haley Stevens": 58.28729281767956, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.867403314917127 }, "actual_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 43.5608004104669, "Haley Stevens": 52.14639986317769, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.292799726355396 }, "mae_points": 4.093928636334575 }, { "cid": "fips:26099", "county": "Macomb", "new_votes": 4815, "reporting_advance_points": 4.180000000000001, "source": "county live share", "geography_level": "county", "effective_sample_votes": 26761, "expected_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 59.17566608123762, "Haley Stevens": 38.26090205896641, "Mallory McMorrow": 2.5634318597959718 }, "actual_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 41.76531671858775, "Haley Stevens": 54.47559709241953, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.7590861889927307 }, "mae_points": 11.606899575099918 }, { "cid": "fips:26139", "county": "Ottawa", "new_votes": 3697, "reporting_advance_points": 14.790000000000006, "source": "county live share", "geography_level": "county", "effective_sample_votes": 5930, "expected_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 55.19392917369309, "Haley Stevens": 40.01686340640809, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.789207419898819 }, "actual_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 51.06843386529618, "Haley Stevens": 44.76602650797945, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.165539626724371 }, "mae_points": 3.1661087343809036 }, { "cid": "fips:26029", "county": "Charlevoix", "new_votes": 2879, "reporting_advance_points": 83.62, "source": "county live share", "geography_level": "county", "effective_sample_votes": 460, "expected_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 54.347826086956516, "Haley Stevens": 38.04347826086957, "Mallory McMorrow": 7.608695652173914 }, "actual_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 48.66273011462313, "Haley Stevens": 46.960750260507126, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.376519624869746 }, "mae_points": 5.9448479997583705 }, { "cid": "fips:26115", "county": "Monroe", "new_votes": 2796, "reporting_advance_points": 17.750000000000004, "source": "county live share", "geography_level": "county", "effective_sample_votes": 371, "expected_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 45.82210242587601, "Haley Stevens": 46.900269541778975, "Mallory McMorrow": 7.277628032345014 }, "actual_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 44.20600858369099, "Haley Stevens": 50.82260371959942, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.971387696709585 }, "mae_points": 2.6148894518802996 }, { "cid": "fips:26015", "county": "Barry", "new_votes": 2664, "reporting_advance_points": 45.190000000000005, "source": "county live share", "geography_level": "county", "effective_sample_votes": 376, "expected_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 38.56382978723404, "Haley Stevens": 53.72340425531915, "Mallory McMorrow": 7.712765957446808 }, "actual_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 40.57807807807808, "Haley Stevens": 53.9039039039039, "Mallory McMorrow": 5.518018018018018 }, "mae_points": 1.4631652929525258 }, { "cid": "fips:26145", "county": "Saginaw", "new_votes": 2388, "reporting_advance_points": 8.940000000000001, "source": "county live share", "geography_level": "county", "effective_sample_votes": 2044, "expected_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 43.88454011741683, "Haley Stevens": 52.20156555772994, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.9138943248532287 }, "actual_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 43.84422110552764, "Haley Stevens": 50.67001675041875, "Mallory McMorrow": 5.485762144053601 }, "mae_points": 1.0479118794669189 }, { "cid": "fips:26155", "county": "Shiawassee", "new_votes": 1786, "reporting_advance_points": 22.109999999999996, "source": "county live share", "geography_level": "county", "effective_sample_votes": 1802, "expected_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 36.90344062153163, "Haley Stevens": 55.04994450610433, "Mallory McMorrow": 8.04661487236404 }, "actual_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 42.44120940649496, "Haley Stevens": 52.07166853303471, "Mallory McMorrow": 5.487122060470324 }, "mae_points": 3.6918458566422228 } ] }, "v3": { "available": true, "mae_points": 6.7457986495370745, "counties_scored": 47, "counties_skipped_noninformative": 0, "informative_votes": 151477.0, "informative_vote_coverage": 1.0, "county_examples": [ { "cid": "fips:26163", "county": "Wayne", "new_votes": 49157, "reporting_advance_points": 16.16, "source": "v3 county remaining-vote prediction", "geography_level": "county", "effective_sample_votes": 20729, "expected_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 50.07389412778912, "Haley Stevens": 46.48213251367657, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.4439733585343144 }, "actual_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 28.76497752100413, "Haley Stevens": 67.39426734747849, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.840755131517383 }, "mae_points": 14.205944404523327 }, { "cid": "fips:26081", "county": "Kent", "new_votes": 23536, "reporting_advance_points": 28.34, "source": "v3 county remaining-vote prediction", "geography_level": "county", "effective_sample_votes": 21057, "expected_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 52.31146368567988, "Haley Stevens": 43.05659824945329, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.631938064866841 }, "actual_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 74.57087015635622, "Haley Stevens": 23.504418762746432, "Mallory McMorrow": 1.9247110808973487 }, "mae_points": 14.839604313784227 }, { "cid": "fips:26065", "county": "Ingham", "new_votes": 10518, "reporting_advance_points": 19.069999999999997, "source": "v3 county remaining-vote prediction", "geography_level": "county", "effective_sample_votes": 8363, "expected_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 52.176308797229076, "Haley Stevens": 43.44979834876933, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.373892854001601 }, "actual_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 74.51036318691766, "Haley Stevens": 23.217341699942956, "Mallory McMorrow": 2.27229511313938 }, "mae_points": 14.889369593125727 }, { "cid": "fips:26125", "county": "Oakland", "new_votes": 8891, "reporting_advance_points": 3.5799999999999943, "source": "v3 county remaining-vote prediction", "geography_level": "county", "effective_sample_votes": 180770, "expected_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 48.23351822615417, "Haley Stevens": 48.89567993783252, "Mallory McMorrow": 2.8708018360133196 }, "actual_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 46.69890900911034, "Haley Stevens": 49.81441907546957, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.486671915420088 }, "mae_points": 1.023072811362551 }, { "cid": "fips:26147", "county": "St. Clair", "new_votes": 5847, "reporting_advance_points": 32.78, "source": "v3 county remaining-vote prediction", "geography_level": "county", "effective_sample_votes": 362, "expected_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 49.09820914812537, "Haley Stevens": 47.26178363332964, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.640007218544985 }, "actual_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 43.5608004104669, "Haley Stevens": 52.14639986317769, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.292799726355396 }, "mae_points": 3.691605825105642 }, { "cid": "fips:26099", "county": "Macomb", "new_votes": 4815, "reporting_advance_points": 4.180000000000001, "source": "v3 county remaining-vote prediction", "geography_level": "county", "effective_sample_votes": 26761, "expected_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 54.92383364670649, "Haley Stevens": 41.974613708966004, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.101552644327512 }, "actual_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 41.76531671858775, "Haley Stevens": 54.47559709241953, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.7590861889927307 }, "mae_points": 8.772344618745826 }, { "cid": "fips:26139", "county": "Ottawa", "new_votes": 3697, "reporting_advance_points": 14.790000000000006, "source": "v3 county remaining-vote prediction", "geography_level": "county", "effective_sample_votes": 5930, "expected_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 53.02697303240864, "Haley Stevens": 42.79246001095257, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.1805669566388035 }, "actual_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 51.06843386529618, "Haley Stevens": 44.76602650797945, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.165539626724371 }, "mae_points": 1.3157109980179245 }, { "cid": "fips:26029", "county": "Charlevoix", "new_votes": 2879, "reporting_advance_points": 83.62, "source": "v3 county remaining-vote prediction", "geography_level": "county", "effective_sample_votes": 460, "expected_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 52.20330162685646, "Haley Stevens": 42.73005482080371, "Mallory McMorrow": 5.066643552339838 }, "actual_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 48.66273011462313, "Haley Stevens": 46.960750260507126, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.376519624869746 }, "mae_points": 2.820463626468943 }, { "cid": "fips:26115", "county": "Monroe", "new_votes": 2796, "reporting_advance_points": 17.750000000000004, "source": "v3 county remaining-vote prediction", "geography_level": "county", "effective_sample_votes": 371, "expected_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 50.179055577699216, "Haley Stevens": 45.65529068366059, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.165653738640194 }, "actual_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 44.20600858369099, "Haley Stevens": 50.82260371959942, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.971387696709585 }, "mae_points": 3.982031329338819 }, { "cid": "fips:26015", "county": "Barry", "new_votes": 2664, "reporting_advance_points": 45.190000000000005, "source": "v3 county remaining-vote prediction", "geography_level": "county", "effective_sample_votes": 376, "expected_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 47.83479026144609, "Haley Stevens": 47.52471698819415, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.640492750359757 }, "actual_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 40.57807807807808, "Haley Stevens": 53.9039039039039, "Mallory McMorrow": 5.518018018018018 }, "mae_points": 4.837808122245342 }, { "cid": "fips:26145", "county": "Saginaw", "new_votes": 2388, "reporting_advance_points": 8.940000000000001, "source": "v3 county remaining-vote prediction", "geography_level": "county", "effective_sample_votes": 2044, "expected_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 49.007452042055974, "Haley Stevens": 47.30406305336484, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.688484904579179 }, "actual_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 43.84422110552764, "Haley Stevens": 50.67001675041875, "Mallory McMorrow": 5.485762144053601 }, "mae_points": 3.4421539576855587 }, { "cid": "fips:26157", "county": "Tuscola", "new_votes": 2125, "reporting_advance_points": 41.07, "source": "v3 county remaining-vote prediction", "geography_level": "county", "effective_sample_votes": 0, "expected_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 50.967889852903916, "Haley Stevens": 45.429885001991046, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.6022251451050424 }, "actual_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 36.98823529411765, "Haley Stevens": 56.32941176470588, "Mallory McMorrow": 6.682352941176471 }, "mae_points": 9.319769705857512 } ] }, "market": { "available": false, "counties_scored": 0, "counties_skipped_noninformative": 47, "informative_vote_coverage": 0.0 }, "histgeo": { "available": true, "mae_points": 6.487931095878778, "counties_scored": 47, "counties_skipped_noninformative": 0, "informative_votes": 151477.0, "informative_vote_coverage": 1.0, "county_examples": [ { "cid": "fips:26163", "county": "Wayne", "new_votes": 49157, "reporting_advance_points": 16.16, "source": "histgeo county remaining-vote prediction", "geography_level": "county", "effective_sample_votes": 20729, "expected_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 50.125825302123936, "Haley Stevens": 46.23395082355193, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.6402238743241346 }, "actual_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 28.76497752100413, "Haley Stevens": 67.39426734747849, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.840755131517383 }, "mae_points": 14.240565187413203 }, { "cid": "fips:26081", "county": "Kent", "new_votes": 23536, "reporting_advance_points": 28.34, "source": "histgeo county remaining-vote prediction", "geography_level": "county", "effective_sample_votes": 21057, "expected_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 52.86591874301247, "Haley Stevens": 42.455261975907035, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.678819281080491 }, "actual_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 74.57087015635622, "Haley Stevens": 23.504418762746432, "Mallory McMorrow": 1.9247110808973487 }, "mae_points": 14.469967608895828 }, { "cid": "fips:26065", "county": "Ingham", "new_votes": 10518, "reporting_advance_points": 19.069999999999997, "source": "histgeo county remaining-vote prediction", "geography_level": "county", "effective_sample_votes": 8363, "expected_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 52.211298474756404, "Haley Stevens": 43.20158001628549, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.587121508958111 }, "actual_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 74.51036318691766, "Haley Stevens": 23.217341699942956, "Mallory McMorrow": 2.27229511313938 }, "mae_points": 14.86604314144084 }, { "cid": "fips:26125", "county": "Oakland", "new_votes": 8891, "reporting_advance_points": 3.5799999999999943, "source": "histgeo county remaining-vote prediction", "geography_level": "county", "effective_sample_votes": 180770, "expected_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 47.95324281137729, "Haley Stevens": 49.18618216577857, "Mallory McMorrow": 2.860575022844146 }, "actual_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 46.69890900911034, "Haley Stevens": 49.81441907546957, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.486671915420088 }, "mae_points": 0.8362225348446337 }, { "cid": "fips:26147", "county": "St. Clair", "new_votes": 5847, "reporting_advance_points": 32.78, "source": "histgeo county remaining-vote prediction", "geography_level": "county", "effective_sample_votes": 362, "expected_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 48.535555832827335, "Haley Stevens": 47.502615415356544, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.9618287518161313 }, "actual_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 43.5608004104669, "Haley Stevens": 52.14639986317769, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.292799726355396 }, "mae_points": 3.3165036149069502 }, { "cid": "fips:26099", "county": "Macomb", "new_votes": 4815, "reporting_advance_points": 4.180000000000001, "source": "histgeo county remaining-vote prediction", "geography_level": "county", "effective_sample_votes": 26761, "expected_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 54.67440611335229, "Haley Stevens": 42.05103184999826, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.274562036649452 }, "actual_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 41.76531671858775, "Haley Stevens": 54.47559709241953, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.7590861889927307 }, "mae_points": 8.606059596509697 }, { "cid": "fips:26139", "county": "Ottawa", "new_votes": 3697, "reporting_advance_points": 14.790000000000006, "source": "histgeo county remaining-vote prediction", "geography_level": "county", "effective_sample_votes": 5930, "expected_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 53.117969590833724, "Haley Stevens": 42.60737988905546, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.2746505201108285 }, "actual_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 51.06843386529618, "Haley Stevens": 44.76602650797945, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.165539626724371 }, "mae_points": 1.4390977459493295 }, { "cid": "fips:26029", "county": "Charlevoix", "new_votes": 2879, "reporting_advance_points": 83.62, "source": "histgeo county remaining-vote prediction", "geography_level": "county", "effective_sample_votes": 460, "expected_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 51.496570480693194, "Haley Stevens": 43.175942698887326, "Mallory McMorrow": 5.327486820419485 }, "actual_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 48.66273011462313, "Haley Stevens": 46.960750260507126, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.376519624869746 }, "mae_points": 2.523205041079865 }, { "cid": "fips:26115", "county": "Monroe", "new_votes": 2796, "reporting_advance_points": 17.750000000000004, "source": "histgeo county remaining-vote prediction", "geography_level": "county", "effective_sample_votes": 371, "expected_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 49.26852708019372, "Haley Stevens": 46.22337496160265, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.508097958203628 }, "actual_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 44.20600858369099, "Haley Stevens": 50.82260371959942, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.971387696709585 }, "mae_points": 3.3750123310018196 }, { "cid": "fips:26015", "county": "Barry", "new_votes": 2664, "reporting_advance_points": 45.190000000000005, "source": "histgeo county remaining-vote prediction", "geography_level": "county", "effective_sample_votes": 376, "expected_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 47.40999053308697, "Haley Stevens": 47.664564501627794, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.925444965285247 }, "actual_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 40.57807807807808, "Haley Stevens": 53.9039039039039, "Mallory McMorrow": 5.518018018018018 }, "mae_points": 4.554608303339258 }, { "cid": "fips:26145", "county": "Saginaw", "new_votes": 2388, "reporting_advance_points": 8.940000000000001, "source": "histgeo county remaining-vote prediction", "geography_level": "county", "effective_sample_votes": 2044, "expected_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 47.905214943331714, "Haley Stevens": 48.04209420175779, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.052690854910493 }, "actual_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 43.84422110552764, "Haley Stevens": 50.67001675041875, "Mallory McMorrow": 5.485762144053601 }, "mae_points": 2.7073292252027175 }, { "cid": "fips:26157", "county": "Tuscola", "new_votes": 2125, "reporting_advance_points": 41.07, "source": "histgeo county remaining-vote prediction", "geography_level": "county", "effective_sample_votes": 0, "expected_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 49.60972721257719, "Haley Stevens": 46.285781547266446, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.104491240156357 }, "actual_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 36.98823529411765, "Haley Stevens": 56.32941176470588, "Mallory McMorrow": 6.682352941176471 }, "mae_points": 8.414327945639698 } ] }, "latent": { "available": true, "mae_points": 6.484168778307326, "counties_scored": 47, "counties_skipped_noninformative": 0, "informative_votes": 151477.0, "informative_vote_coverage": 1.0, "county_examples": [ { "cid": "fips:26163", "county": "Wayne", "new_votes": 49157, "reporting_advance_points": 16.16, "source": "latent county remaining-vote prediction", "geography_level": "county", "effective_sample_votes": 20729, "expected_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 49.20266775799501, "Haley Stevens": 46.83595400751956, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.9613782344854314 }, "actual_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 28.76497752100413, "Haley Stevens": 67.39426734747849, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.840755131517383 }, "mae_points": 13.705542226639286 }, { "cid": "fips:26081", "county": "Kent", "new_votes": 23536, "reporting_advance_points": 28.34, "source": "latent county remaining-vote prediction", "geography_level": "county", "effective_sample_votes": 21057, "expected_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 51.72623094734621, "Haley Stevens": 43.294333710134715, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.9794353425190865 }, "actual_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 74.57087015635622, "Haley Stevens": 23.504418762746432, "Mallory McMorrow": 1.9247110808973487 }, "mae_points": 15.229759472673344 }, { "cid": "fips:26065", "county": "Ingham", "new_votes": 10518, "reporting_advance_points": 19.069999999999997, "source": "latent county remaining-vote prediction", "geography_level": "county", "effective_sample_votes": 8363, "expected_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 51.42042251531833, "Haley Stevens": 43.77176432159398, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.807813163087696 }, "actual_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 74.51036318691766, "Haley Stevens": 23.217341699942956, "Mallory McMorrow": 2.27229511313938 }, "mae_points": 15.393293781066223 }, { "cid": "fips:26125", "county": "Oakland", "new_votes": 8891, "reporting_advance_points": 3.5799999999999943, "source": "latent county remaining-vote prediction", "geography_level": "county", "effective_sample_votes": 180770, "expected_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 47.86858059684536, "Haley Stevens": 49.20605080297822, "Mallory McMorrow": 2.9253686001764203 }, "actual_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 46.69890900911034, "Haley Stevens": 49.81441907546957, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.486671915420088 }, "mae_points": 0.7797810584900167 }, { "cid": "fips:26147", "county": "St. Clair", "new_votes": 5847, "reporting_advance_points": 32.78, "source": "latent county remaining-vote prediction", "geography_level": "county", "effective_sample_votes": 362, "expected_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 48.019034995259474, "Haley Stevens": 47.728459092050564, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.2525059126899665 }, "actual_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 43.5608004104669, "Haley Stevens": 52.14639986317769, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.292799726355396 }, "mae_points": 2.9721563898617105 }, { "cid": "fips:26099", "county": "Macomb", "new_votes": 4815, "reporting_advance_points": 4.180000000000001, "source": "latent county remaining-vote prediction", "geography_level": "county", "effective_sample_votes": 26761, "expected_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 54.28714342072555, "Haley Stevens": 42.24400611307379, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.4688504662006716 }, "actual_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 41.76531671858775, "Haley Stevens": 54.47559709241953, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.7590861889927307 }, "mae_points": 8.347884468091864 }, { "cid": "fips:26139", "county": "Ottawa", "new_votes": 3697, "reporting_advance_points": 14.790000000000006, "source": "latent county remaining-vote prediction", "geography_level": "county", "effective_sample_votes": 5930, "expected_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 52.39974354558976, "Haley Stevens": 43.05665506722637, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.543601387183876 }, "actual_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 51.06843386529618, "Haley Stevens": 44.76602650797945, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.165539626724371 }, "mae_points": 1.139580960502052 }, { "cid": "fips:26029", "county": "Charlevoix", "new_votes": 2879, "reporting_advance_points": 83.62, "source": "latent county remaining-vote prediction", "geography_level": "county", "effective_sample_votes": 460, "expected_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 51.3936039743047, "Haley Stevens": 43.08456647754228, "Mallory McMorrow": 5.521829548153007 }, "actual_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 48.66273011462313, "Haley Stevens": 46.960750260507126, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.376519624869746 }, "mae_points": 2.584122521976558 }, { "cid": "fips:26115", "county": "Monroe", "new_votes": 2796, "reporting_advance_points": 17.750000000000004, "source": "latent county remaining-vote prediction", "geography_level": "county", "effective_sample_votes": 371, "expected_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 49.105881968755696, "Haley Stevens": 46.12233874026968, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.771779290974622 }, "actual_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 44.20600858369099, "Haley Stevens": 50.82260371959942, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.971387696709585 }, "mae_points": 3.2665822567098046 }, { "cid": "fips:26015", "county": "Barry", "new_votes": 2664, "reporting_advance_points": 45.190000000000005, "source": "latent county remaining-vote prediction", "geography_level": "county", "effective_sample_votes": 376, "expected_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 46.90152521784016, "Haley Stevens": 47.92543567911002, "Mallory McMorrow": 5.173039103049836 }, "actual_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 40.57807807807808, "Haley Stevens": 53.9039039039039, "Mallory McMorrow": 5.518018018018018 }, "mae_points": 4.21563142650805 }, { "cid": "fips:26145", "county": "Saginaw", "new_votes": 2388, "reporting_advance_points": 8.940000000000001, "source": "latent county remaining-vote prediction", "geography_level": "county", "effective_sample_votes": 2044, "expected_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 48.0938870903444, "Haley Stevens": 47.700444215114324, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.205668694541275 }, "actual_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 43.84422110552764, "Haley Stevens": 50.67001675041875, "Mallory McMorrow": 5.485762144053601 }, "mae_points": 2.8331106565445072 }, { "cid": "fips:26157", "county": "Tuscola", "new_votes": 2125, "reporting_advance_points": 41.07, "source": "latent county remaining-vote prediction", "geography_level": "county", "effective_sample_votes": 0, "expected_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 49.698343639039564, "Haley Stevens": 45.983196871296826, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.318459489663614 }, "actual_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 36.98823529411765, "Haley Stevens": 56.32941176470588, "Mallory McMorrow": 6.682352941176471 }, "mae_points": 8.473405563281275 } ] }, "batchbias": { "available": true, "mae_points": 9.178532222765343, "counties_scored": 7, "counties_skipped_noninformative": 40, "informative_votes": 86527.0, "informative_vote_coverage": 0.5712220337080877, "county_examples": [ { "cid": "fips:26163", "county": "Wayne", "new_votes": 49157, "reporting_advance_points": 16.16, "source": "batchbias county remaining-vote prediction", "geography_level": "county", "effective_sample_votes": 20729, "expected_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 49.173554469298, "Haley Stevens": 47.22657380496897, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.599871725733026 }, "actual_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 28.76497752100413, "Haley Stevens": 67.39426734747849, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.840755131517383 }, "mae_points": 13.605717965529246 }, { "cid": "fips:26081", "county": "Kent", "new_votes": 23536, "reporting_advance_points": 28.34, "source": "batchbias county remaining-vote prediction", "geography_level": "county", "effective_sample_votes": 21057, "expected_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 53.455209852016964, "Haley Stevens": 42.40698126690375, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.137808881079283 }, "actual_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 74.57087015635622, "Haley Stevens": 23.504418762746432, "Mallory McMorrow": 1.9247110808973487 }, "mae_points": 14.077106869559502 }, { "cid": "fips:26125", "county": "Oakland", "new_votes": 8891, "reporting_advance_points": 3.5799999999999943, "source": "batchbias county remaining-vote prediction", "geography_level": "county", "effective_sample_votes": 180770, "expected_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 46.954704278051004, "Haley Stevens": 50.12342220413376, "Mallory McMorrow": 2.9218735178152464 }, "actual_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 46.69890900911034, "Haley Stevens": 49.81441907546957, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.486671915420088 }, "mae_points": 0.37653226506990045 }, { "cid": "fips:26145", "county": "Saginaw", "new_votes": 2388, "reporting_advance_points": 8.940000000000001, "source": "batchbias county remaining-vote prediction", "geography_level": "county", "effective_sample_votes": 2044, "expected_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 46.941211591468644, "Haley Stevens": 49.08250597460071, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.976282433930647 }, "actual_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 43.84422110552764, "Haley Stevens": 50.67001675041875, "Mallory McMorrow": 5.485762144053601 }, "mae_points": 2.06466032396067 }, { "cid": "fips:26117", "county": "Montcalm", "new_votes": 1118, "reporting_advance_points": 22.009999999999998, "source": "batchbias county remaining-vote prediction", "geography_level": "county", "effective_sample_votes": 2089, "expected_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 42.41130881642825, "Haley Stevens": 53.73735899640677, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.8513321871649837 }, "actual_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 40.07155635062612, "Haley Stevens": 57.066189624329155, "Mallory McMorrow": 2.862254025044723 }, "mae_points": 2.219220418614926 }, { "cid": "fips:26041", "county": "Delta", "new_votes": 858, "reporting_advance_points": 18.06, "source": "batchbias county remaining-vote prediction", "geography_level": "county", "effective_sample_votes": 3408, "expected_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 48.021438399732034, "Haley Stevens": 44.14606328551848, "Mallory McMorrow": 7.83249831474947 }, "actual_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 44.40559440559441, "Haley Stevens": 45.45454545454545, "Mallory McMorrow": 10.13986013986014 }, "mae_points": 2.410562662758425 }, { "cid": "fips:26073", "county": "Isabella", "new_votes": 579, "reporting_advance_points": 7.76, "source": "batchbias county remaining-vote prediction", "geography_level": "county", "effective_sample_votes": 1173, "expected_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 50.3907073155487, "Haley Stevens": 45.50862220595188, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.100670478499429 }, "actual_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 44.38687392055268, "Haley Stevens": 49.05008635578584, "Mallory McMorrow": 6.563039723661486 }, "mae_points": 4.002555596664012 } ] } } } ], "matured_votes": 480324, "unique_matured_counties": 66, "average_reporting_advance_points": 32.54357040247833, "base_evidence_before_prediction_coverage": 1.0, "average_informative_vote_coverage": 0.8073991028278135, "evidence": 0.8985538953384007, "models": { "v0": { "mae_points": 6.906826155985889, "raw_score": 0.2154879565916221, "usable_score": 0.21548795659162212, "windows_scored": 4, "informative_vote_coverage": 1.0, "evidence": 1.0, "strength_multiplier": 0.8309628989235827 }, "v1": { "mae_points": 5.82642525665127, "raw_score": 0.27396328767881795, "usable_score": 0.3374278868570438, "windows_scored": 4, "informative_vote_coverage": 0.5930330360340104, "evidence": 0.7700863821896933, "strength_multiplier": 1.1225914112084479 }, "v3": { "mae_points": 6.252361817596126, "raw_score": 0.2492213710187745, "usable_score": 0.2492213710187745, "windows_scored": 4, "informative_vote_coverage": 1.0, "evidence": 1.0, "strength_multiplier": 0.911737424814332 }, "histgeo": { "mae_points": 6.034627187968569, "raw_score": 0.2615765604883897, "usable_score": 0.2615765604883897, "windows_scored": 4, "informative_vote_coverage": 1.0, "evidence": 1.0, "strength_multiplier": 0.9432475941770844 }, "latent": { "mae_points": 6.074996690454159, "raw_score": 0.25924045130541196, "usable_score": 0.25924045130541196, "windows_scored": 4, "informative_vote_coverage": 1.0, "evidence": 1.0, "strength_multiplier": 0.9372073114881438 }, "batchbias": { "mae_points": 7.266906505285562, "raw_score": 0.19891690340660842, "usable_score": 0.37398107276058357, "windows_scored": 4, "informative_vote_coverage": 0.2513615809328703, "evidence": 0.501359732061591, "strength_multiplier": 1.1339236043377035 } }, "best_completion_predictor": "batchbias", "method_note": "V6 scores only genuine ex-ante predictions. Missing county information does not silently become an equal-share prediction. Evidence is reduced by the fraction of matured vote for which each model was actually informative." }, "path_referee": { "available": true, "max_intervals": 4, "intervals": [ { "from_snapshot": 44, "from_filename": "44.json", "to_snapshot": 45, "to_filename": "45.json", "new_votes": 10283, "changed_counties": 13, "correction_votes": 0, "actual_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 46.912379655742484, "Haley Stevens": 47.64173879218127, "Mallory McMorrow": 5.445881552076242 }, "predictions": { "v0": { "available": true, "expected_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 49.893022826195555, "Haley Stevens": 46.51631425463773, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.590662919166728 }, "actual_informative_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 46.912379655742484, "Haley Stevens": 47.64173879218127, "Mallory McMorrow": 5.445881552076242 }, "mae_points": 1.9870954469687074, "informative_votes": 10283.0, "informative_counties": 13, "informative_vote_coverage": 1.0 }, "v1": { "available": true, "expected_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 40.73384504635244, "Haley Stevens": 53.87310293265229, "Mallory McMorrow": 5.393052020995266 }, "actual_informative_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 46.912379655742484, "Haley Stevens": 47.64173879218127, "Mallory McMorrow": 5.445881552076242 }, "mae_points": 4.154242760314012, "informative_votes": 10283.0, "informative_counties": 13, "informative_vote_coverage": 1.0 }, "v3": { "available": true, "expected_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 45.7426995431161, "Haley Stevens": 49.703852554208396, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.553447902675506 }, "actual_informative_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 46.912379655742484, "Haley Stevens": 47.64173879218127, "Mallory McMorrow": 5.445881552076242 }, "mae_points": 1.3747425080180802, "informative_votes": 10283.0, "informative_counties": 13, "informative_vote_coverage": 1.0 }, "market": { "available": false, "informative_vote_coverage": 0.0 }, "temporal": { "available": true, "expected_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 55.72718588646427, "Haley Stevens": 40.35644447781336, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.916369635722363 }, "actual_informative_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 46.912379655742484, "Haley Stevens": 47.64173879218127, "Mallory McMorrow": 5.445881552076242 }, "mae_points": 5.876537487147856, "informative_votes": 10283.0, "informative_counties": 13, "informative_vote_coverage": 1.0 }, "histgeo": { "available": true, "expected_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 45.439653099792146, "Haley Stevens": 49.80819767224371, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.752149227964148 }, "actual_informative_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 46.912379655742484, "Haley Stevens": 47.64173879218127, "Mallory McMorrow": 5.445881552076242 }, "mae_points": 1.4443059200416253, "informative_votes": 10283.0, "informative_counties": 13, "informative_vote_coverage": 1.0 }, "latent": { "available": true, "expected_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 45.31303344063094, "Haley Stevens": 49.774191815828004, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.912774743541047 }, "actual_informative_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 46.912379655742484, "Haley Stevens": 47.64173879218127, "Mallory McMorrow": 5.445881552076242 }, "mae_points": 1.4216353490978257, "informative_votes": 10283.0, "informative_counties": 13, "informative_vote_coverage": 1.0 }, "batchbias": { "available": true, "expected_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 47.44505749966642, "Haley Stevens": 48.65242921520099, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.9025132851325868 }, "actual_informative_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 47.57090012330456, "Haley Stevens": 47.5462392108508, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.882860665844636 }, "mae_points": 0.7374600029001276, "informative_votes": 4055.0, "informative_counties": 3, "informative_vote_coverage": 0.39434017310123504 } } }, { "from_snapshot": 45, "from_filename": "45.json", "to_snapshot": 46, "to_filename": "46.json", "new_votes": 8299, "changed_counties": 14, "correction_votes": 0, "actual_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 45.403060609712014, "Haley Stevens": 50.945897096035665, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.6510422942523193 }, "predictions": { "v0": { "available": true, "expected_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 49.83634447177174, "Haley Stevens": 46.53771474009283, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.6259407881354364 }, "actual_informative_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 45.403060609712014, "Haley Stevens": 50.945897096035665, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.6510422942523193 }, "mae_points": 2.9555225747064804, "informative_votes": 8299.0, "informative_counties": 14, "informative_vote_coverage": 1.0 }, "v1": { "available": true, "expected_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 43.93792542180067, "Haley Stevens": 51.279546695780475, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.782527882418855 }, "actual_informative_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 44.25365062195781, "Haley Stevens": 52.001081665765284, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.745267712276906 }, "mae_points": 0.6915067800946317, "informative_votes": 7396.0, "informative_counties": 13, "informative_vote_coverage": 0.8911917098445595 }, "v3": { "available": true, "expected_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 47.202617179671705, "Haley Stevens": 48.67691523355436, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.120467586773921 }, "actual_informative_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 45.403060609712014, "Haley Stevens": 50.945897096035665, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.6510422942523193 }, "mae_points": 1.5126545749875318, "informative_votes": 8299.0, "informative_counties": 14, "informative_vote_coverage": 1.0 }, "market": { "available": false, "informative_vote_coverage": 0.0 }, "temporal": { "available": true, "expected_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 48.95166975514421, "Haley Stevens": 46.25367983454609, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.794650410309698 }, "actual_informative_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 45.403060609712014, "Haley Stevens": 50.945897096035665, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.6510422942523193 }, "mae_points": 3.1281448409930497, "informative_votes": 8299.0, "informative_counties": 14, "informative_vote_coverage": 1.0 }, "histgeo": { "available": true, "expected_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 46.829161797691896, "Haley Stevens": 48.906742753917, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.2640954483911075 }, "actual_informative_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 45.403060609712014, "Haley Stevens": 50.945897096035665, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.6510422942523193 }, "mae_points": 1.3594362280791126, "informative_votes": 8299.0, "informative_counties": 14, "informative_vote_coverage": 1.0 }, "latent": { "available": true, "expected_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 46.78969893604632, "Haley Stevens": 48.809527059123305, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.40077400483039 }, "actual_informative_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 45.403060609712014, "Haley Stevens": 50.945897096035665, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.6510422942523193 }, "mae_points": 1.424246691274912, "informative_votes": 8299.0, "informative_counties": 14, "informative_vote_coverage": 1.0 }, "batchbias": { "available": true, "expected_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 46.30486078309659, "Haley Stevens": 49.93772850356662, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.7574107133367862 }, "actual_informative_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 44.893832153690596, "Haley Stevens": 51.9969666329626, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.109201213346815 }, "mae_points": 1.3728254195973157, "informative_votes": 3956.0, "informative_counties": 6, "informative_vote_coverage": 0.47668393782383417 } } }, { "from_snapshot": 46, "from_filename": "46.json", "to_snapshot": 47, "to_filename": "47.json", "new_votes": 12360, "changed_counties": 12, "correction_votes": 0, "actual_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 48.57605177993528, "Haley Stevens": 45.98705501618123, "Mallory McMorrow": 5.436893203883495 }, "predictions": { "v0": { "available": true, "expected_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 49.769336822876525, "Haley Stevens": 46.604342987857635, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.626320189265829 }, "actual_informative_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 48.57605177993528, "Haley Stevens": 45.98705501618123, "Mallory McMorrow": 5.436893203883495 }, "mae_points": 1.207048676411774, "informative_votes": 12360.0, "informative_counties": 12, "informative_vote_coverage": 1.0 }, "v1": { "available": true, "expected_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 45.83394374077087, "Haley Stevens": 48.53998571438005, "Mallory McMorrow": 5.626070544849073 }, "actual_informative_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 49.01960784313725, "Haley Stevens": 45.611141652922846, "Mallory McMorrow": 5.3692505039398934 }, "mae_points": 2.123776068244254, "informative_votes": 10914.0, "informative_counties": 11, "informative_vote_coverage": 0.8830097087378641 }, "v3": { "available": true, "expected_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 49.507461788370655, "Haley Stevens": 46.09767875226077, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.394859459368565 }, "actual_informative_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 48.57605177993528, "Haley Stevens": 45.98705501618123, "Mallory McMorrow": 5.436893203883495 }, "mae_points": 0.69468916300995, "informative_votes": 12360.0, "informative_counties": 12, "informative_vote_coverage": 1.0 }, "market": { "available": false, "informative_vote_coverage": 0.0 }, "temporal": { "available": true, "expected_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 48.313214228085386, "Haley Stevens": 47.20571772591945, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.481068045995162 }, "actual_informative_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 48.57605177993528, "Haley Stevens": 45.98705501618123, "Mallory McMorrow": 5.436893203883495 }, "mae_points": 0.8124418064921474, "informative_votes": 12360.0, "informative_counties": 12, "informative_vote_coverage": 1.0 }, "histgeo": { "available": true, "expected_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 49.240437712980054, "Haley Stevens": 46.16285588687788, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.596706400142085 }, "actual_informative_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 48.57605177993528, "Haley Stevens": 45.98705501618123, "Mallory McMorrow": 5.436893203883495 }, "mae_points": 0.5601245358276125, "informative_votes": 12360.0, "informative_counties": 12, "informative_vote_coverage": 1.0 }, "latent": { "available": true, "expected_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 48.98007255231334, "Haley Stevens": 46.24944224067742, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.770485207009243 }, "actual_informative_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 48.57605177993528, "Haley Stevens": 45.98705501618123, "Mallory McMorrow": 5.436893203883495 }, "mae_points": 0.4442719979161677, "informative_votes": 12360.0, "informative_counties": 12, "informative_vote_coverage": 1.0 }, "batchbias": { "available": true, "expected_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 56.690247232116185, "Haley Stevens": 39.3008838522179, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.008868915665915 }, "actual_informative_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 44.0547176429323, "Haley Stevens": 49.80708523325149, "Mallory McMorrow": 6.138197123816204 }, "mae_points": 8.423686392789254, "informative_votes": 2851.0, "informative_counties": 4, "informative_vote_coverage": 0.23066343042071197 } } }, { "from_snapshot": 47, "from_filename": "47.json", "to_snapshot": 48, "to_filename": "48.json", "new_votes": 7007, "changed_counties": 13, "correction_votes": 0, "actual_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 43.741972313400886, "Haley Stevens": 52.176395033537894, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.081632653061225 }, "predictions": { "v0": { "available": true, "expected_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 49.74306635389337, "Haley Stevens": 46.59075323861076, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.666180407495872 }, "actual_informative_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 43.741972313400886, "Haley Stevens": 52.176395033537894, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.081632653061225 }, "mae_points": 4.0007293603283225, "informative_votes": 7007.0, "informative_counties": 13, "informative_vote_coverage": 1.0 }, "v1": { "available": true, "expected_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 48.540743186013856, "Haley Stevens": 46.988704161038484, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.470552652947669 }, "actual_informative_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 43.741972313400886, "Haley Stevens": 52.176395033537894, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.081632653061225 }, "mae_points": 3.458460581666275, "informative_votes": 7007.0, "informative_counties": 13, "informative_vote_coverage": 1.0 }, "v3": { "available": true, "expected_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 47.669465616785686, "Haley Stevens": 48.188609524707815, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.141924858506494 }, "actual_informative_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 43.741972313400886, "Haley Stevens": 52.176395033537894, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.081632653061225 }, "mae_points": 2.658523672553382, "informative_votes": 7007.0, "informative_counties": 13, "informative_vote_coverage": 1.0 }, "market": { "available": false, "informative_vote_coverage": 0.0 }, "temporal": { "available": true, "expected_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 46.74926691132724, "Haley Stevens": 48.22482810197041, "Mallory McMorrow": 5.025904986702358 }, "actual_informative_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 43.741972313400886, "Haley Stevens": 52.176395033537894, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.081632653061225 }, "mae_points": 2.6343779543783254, "informative_votes": 7007.0, "informative_counties": 13, "informative_vote_coverage": 1.0 }, "histgeo": { "available": true, "expected_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 47.30583027839844, "Haley Stevens": 48.36296695243763, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.331202769163922 }, "actual_informative_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 43.741972313400886, "Haley Stevens": 52.176395033537894, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.081632653061225 }, "mae_points": 2.542285387400171, "informative_votes": 7007.0, "informative_counties": 13, "informative_vote_coverage": 1.0 }, "latent": { "available": true, "expected_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 47.11804708729036, "Haley Stevens": 48.39940756813766, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.482545344571984 }, "actual_informative_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 43.741972313400886, "Haley Stevens": 52.176395033537894, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.081632653061225 }, "mae_points": 2.5179916436001566, "informative_votes": 7007.0, "informative_counties": 13, "informative_vote_coverage": 1.0 }, "batchbias": { "available": true, "expected_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 48.055963038946395, "Haley Stevens": 47.84489101270981, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.099145948343795 }, "actual_informative_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 35.97972972972973, "Haley Stevens": 58.50225225225225, "Mallory McMorrow": 5.518018018018018 }, "mae_points": 8.050822206144446, "informative_votes": 1776.0, "informative_counties": 4, "informative_vote_coverage": 0.2534608248893963 } } } ], "recent_votes": 37949, "current_votes": 568436, "base_evidence_before_prediction_coverage": 0.6090081831189499, "evidence": 0.576430440892034, "models": { "v0": { "mae_points": 2.580130181238737, "raw_score": 0.6255559038509592, "usable_score": 0.5960141637281827, "intervals_scored": 4, "informative_vote_coverage": 1.0, "evidence": 0.6090081831189499, "strength_multiplier": 0.9812438454252695 }, "v1": { "mae_points": 2.6598957565382926, "raw_score": 0.6165490421199756, "usable_score": 0.589254528735769, "intervals_scored": 4, "informative_vote_coverage": 0.9381011357348019, "evidence": 0.5898586588970036, "strength_multiplier": 0.9750012092920427 }, "v3": { "mae_points": 1.6038061488256483, "raw_score": 0.7470664679400999, "usable_score": 0.6700150915938691, "intervals_scored": 4, "informative_vote_coverage": 1.0, "evidence": 0.6090081831189499, "strength_multiplier": 1.0617656888583238 }, "temporal": { "mae_points": 2.706784088574817, "raw_score": 0.6113152095706379, "usable_score": 0.5873414643781718, "intervals_scored": 4, "informative_vote_coverage": 1.0, "evidence": 0.6090081831189499, "strength_multiplier": 0.9722159430034651 }, "histgeo": { "mae_points": 1.5063318700354804, "raw_score": 0.7604244446243752, "usable_score": 0.6781502087045048, "intervals_scored": 4, "informative_vote_coverage": 1.0, "evidence": 0.6090081831189499, "strength_multiplier": 1.0710113447458673 }, "latent": { "mae_points": 1.4705268821986817, "raw_score": 0.7653909545213564, "usable_score": 0.6811748538733077, "intervals_scored": 4, "informative_vote_coverage": 1.0, "evidence": 0.6090081831189499, "strength_multiplier": 1.0744693835027321 }, "batchbias": { "mae_points": 5.149149818123109, "raw_score": 0.3921114933421971, "usable_score": 0.49451026475286897, "intervals_scored": 4, "informative_vote_coverage": 0.3330259031858547, "evidence": 0.35144885730913816, "strength_multiplier": 0.9292707205818581 } }, "best_recent_predictor": "latent", "method_note": "V6 Path Referee scores only genuine ex-ante predictions on the exact geography that reported next. This score drives path simulation, not the final-result mixture." }, "raw_guard": { "shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 0.49231441721719627, "Haley Stevens": 0.47038446760480607, "Mallory McMorrow": 0.03730111517799768 }, "release_fraction": 0.6981828066327005, "raw_leader": "Abdul El-Sayed", "mixture_leader": "Abdul El-Sayed", "raw_stability": { "available": true, "reference_candidate": "Abdul El-Sayed", "score": 0.9602183580341994, "dispersion_points": 0.1420809743461143, "sign_consistency": 1.0, "margins_points": [ 3.3767085715578347, 3.2986297316789037, 3.1649938350189144, 3.152313115282607, 3.0094856764877664 ] }, "weighted_final_quality": 0.3438507686826209, "raw_final_quality": 0.21548795659162212, "skill_advantage": 0.12836281209099876, "completion_evidence": 0.8985538953384007, "specialist_override": 0.0, "specialist_details": [], "benchmark_release": 0.0, "consensus_release": 0.0, "benchmark_candidate": "Abdul El-Sayed", "benchmark_evidence": 0.6671350391989715, "crossover_consensus": { "available": false, "raw_leader": "Abdul El-Sayed", "candidate": null, "eligible": false, "score": 0.0, "independent_families": 0, "candidates": {} }, "method_note": "The raw scoreboard is a guarded baseline, not a veto. V6 can release the guard through generic completion skill, specialist held-out exams, or broad county-benchmark beats confirmed by independent expert families." }, "reporting_path_profile": { "available": true, "intervals": 12, "live_evidence": 1.0, "median_dump_votes": 10525.0, "dump_log_sigma": 0.7145720676419697, "median_cadence_seconds": null, "county_recurrence": { "fips:26027": 2, "fips:26073": 5, "fips:26155": 3, "fips:26105": 2, "fips:26013": 1, "fips:26065": 4, "fips:26081": 5, "fips:26041": 4, "fips:26147": 6, "fips:26037": 1, "fips:26165": 1, "fips:26145": 5, "fips:26139": 5, "fips:26107": 2, "fips:26125": 4, "fips:26113": 2, "fips:26047": 1, "fips:26059": 3, "fips:26035": 3, "fips:26057": 7, "fips:26163": 4, "fips:26085": 3, "fips:26117": 3, "fips:26061": 1, "fips:26135": 2, "fips:26111": 4, "fips:26131": 1, "fips:26039": 2, "fips:26069": 2, "fips:26099": 2, "fips:26127": 2, "fips:26021": 2, "fips:26133": 5, "fips:26151": 3, "fips:26025": 1, "fips:26029": 1, "fips:26033": 1, "fips:26159": 4, "fips:26075": 1, "fips:26141": 1, "fips:26115": 2, "fips:26007": 1, "fips:26143": 3, "fips:26157": 2, "fips:26049": 1, "fips:26077": 1, "fips:26045": 2, "fips:26063": 1, "fips:26149": 1, "fips:26093": 1, "fips:26089": 1, "fips:26079": 1, "fips:26015": 1, "fips:26023": 1, "fips:26097": 1, "fips:26055": 1 }, "market_activity_votes": { "DETROIT (MI)": 80645.00000000001, "GRAND RAPIDS (MI) - KALAMAZOO (MI) - BATTLE CREEK (MI)": 43525.00000000001, "SOUTH BEND (IN) - ELKHART (IN)": 2415.0, "MARQUETTE (MI)": 2911.0000000000005, "TRAVERSE CITY (MI) - CADILLAC (MI)": 20646.000000000004, "LANSING (MI)": 13956.000000000004, "ALPENA (MI)": 1634.0000000000005, "FLINT (MI) - SAGINAW (MI) - BAY CITY (MI)": 12730.000000000002 }, "historical_profile_used": false, "historical_profile_races": 0, "historical_profile_intervals": 0, "historical_profile_source_races": [], "method_note": "V6 blends current-race prior dumps with a state historical reporting profile from other archived races when available. The current race is automatically excluded from its own historical profile." }, "model_disagreement_points": { "v0": 0.4178946727704619, "v1": 0.6121060510461522, "v3": 0.15036621444837428, "market": 0.18372861667720386, "histgeo": 0.060268517054198195, "latent": 0.09655633481326781, "batchbias": 0.029485862404544694 }, "model_confidence": 0.6640368667250907, "model_confidence_note": "Diagnostic model-quality score only. Candidate win probability is reported separately by Monte Carlo.", "weighted_validation_residual_mae_points": 6.131157946830113, "weighted_final_quality": 0.3438507686826209, "gate_entropy": 0.9588281138752243, "reference_url": "/var/www/html/afi_needle_lab/engine/references/library/mi_democratic_library.json", "reference_library": { "manifest_state": "MI", "manifest_party": "democratic", "references_requested": 4, "references_used": 4, "composite_total_votes": 1023978, "weights": [ { "source": "/var/www/html/afi_needle_lab/engine/references/official/mi_official_20260828_152614_195e3b3ae6bf6bb9.json", "election_name": "2024-08-06 \u2014 DEMOCRATIC \u2014 UNITED STATES SENATOR 6 YEAR TERM (1) POSITION", "year": 2024, "party": "democratic", "total_votes": 933844, "counties": 83, "recency_score": 0.7710515858035663, "office_similarity": 0.8, "live_turnout_fit": 0.871831229850376, "weight": 0.4068387284211743 }, { "source": "/var/www/html/afi_needle_lab/engine/references/official/mi_official_20260828_152940_e6d213d83f7d09e3.json", "election_name": "2024-02-27 \u2014 DEMOCRATIC \u2014 PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES 4 YEAR TERM (1) POSITION", "year": 2024, "party": "democratic", "total_votes": 770571, "counties": 83, "recency_score": 0.7710515858035663, "office_similarity": 0.55, "live_turnout_fit": 0.927831640663263, "weight": 0.2908081182152374 }, { "source": "/var/www/html/afi_needle_lab/engine/references/official/mi_official_20260828_153102_eac66d34d9fc7329.json", "election_name": "2020-03-10 \u2014 Democratic \u2014 President of the United States 4 Year Term (1) Position", "year": 2020, "party": "democratic", "total_votes": 1587679, "counties": 83, "recency_score": 0.4584060113052235, "office_similarity": 0.55, "live_turnout_fit": 0.9091247332234232, "weight": 0.17068566047679776 }, { "source": "/var/www/html/afi_needle_lab/engine/references/official/mi_official_20260828_153137_cbbc622d503a8c99.json", "election_name": "2018-08-07 \u2014 Democratic \u2014 Governor 4 Year Term (1) Position", "year": 2018, "party": "democratic", "total_votes": 1131447, "counties": 83, "recency_score": 0.35345468195878016, "office_similarity": 0.55, "live_turnout_fit": 0.9097851703003733, "weight": 0.13166749288679058 } ], "weighting_method": "recency \u00d7 office similarity \u00d7 party match \u00d7 live county-turnout fit, normalized across usable historical races" }, "media_market_source": "/var/www/html/afi_needle_lab/engine/media_markets/mi_media_markets.js", "media_market_available": true, "temporal_available": true, "temporal_role": "path_only", "specialists": { "runoff_transfer_available": false, "latent_coalition_available": true, "batch_bias_available": true, "precinct_hierarchy_available": false, "historical_candidate_geo_available": true }, "why": [ "V3 Remaining Vote currently has the largest V6 expert weight at 21.1%.", "Completion Referee has 90% usable evidence after informative-prediction coverage; Within-County Batch Bias has the best generic maturation score at 7.27 points.", "Latent coalition model compresses 10 historical candidate maps into 4 factors.", "Within-county reporting-order model has 14 informative counties and 38% confidence.", "County Benchmark Breadth favors Abdul El-Sayed with +0.60 points weighted performance versus the dynamic win path and 67% evidence.", "Raw guard released 70% of the experts' requested correction away from the scoreboard.", "Path Referee separately favors Latent Coalition Factors for near-term reporting at 1.47 points MAE; this does not directly change final expert weights." ] }, "v5": { "version": "V6.0", "architecture": "county_benchmark_mixture_of_experts", "weights": { "v0": 0.13153084075531943, "v1": 0.1897648028775624, "v3": 0.21073554896945648, "market": 0.20638761101024167, "histgeo": 0.08614748568391185, "latent": 0.11460896814420396, "batchbias": 0.060824742559304285 }, "structural_strengths": { "v0": 1.8063497561203015, "v1": 1.105433755020258, "v3": 2.1758974823458144, "market": 1.396573426948696, "histgeo": 0.680689563125467, "latent": 1.2417168472295956, "batchbias": 0.5208215817978711 }, "components": [ { "model": "v3", "label": "V3 Remaining Vote", "weight": 0.21073554896945648, "structural_strength": 2.1758974823458144, "gate_cap": 0.44, "validation_log_adjustment": -0.8400519427948487, "benchmark_log_adjustment": 0.0, "weight_pre_benchmark": 0.21073554896945648, "uncertainty_penalty": 0.11261809087980632, "unvalidated_penalty": 0.0, "horizon_validation": { "short_path_quality": 0.6700150915938691, "short_path_evidence": 0.6090081831189499, "maturation_quality": 0.2492213710187745, "maturation_evidence": 1.0, "specialist_exam": { "available": false, "score": 0.0, "mae_points": null, "evidence": 0.0, "exam": null }, "final_quality": 0.2492213710187745, "final_evidence": 1.0, "residual_mae_points": 6.252361817596126 }, "completion_referee": { "mae_points": 6.252361817596126, "raw_score": 0.2492213710187745, "usable_score": 0.2492213710187745, "windows_scored": 4, "informative_vote_coverage": 1.0, "evidence": 1.0, "strength_multiplier": 0.911737424814332 }, "path_referee": { "mae_points": 1.6038061488256483, "raw_score": 0.7470664679400999, "usable_score": 0.6700150915938691, "intervals_scored": 4, "informative_vote_coverage": 1.0, "evidence": 0.6090081831189499, "strength_multiplier": 1.0617656888583238 }, "predicted_leader": "Abdul El-Sayed", "projected_margin_points": 2.225930067021742, "weighted_margin_contribution_points": 0.46908259464144586, "disagreement_points": 0.15036621444837428 }, { "model": "market", "label": "Media Markets", "weight": 0.20638761101024167, "structural_strength": 1.396573426948696, "gate_cap": 0.26, "validation_log_adjustment": 0.0, "benchmark_log_adjustment": 0.0, "weight_pre_benchmark": 0.20638761101024167, "uncertainty_penalty": 0.1, "unvalidated_penalty": 0.52, "horizon_validation": { "short_path_quality": 0.55, "short_path_evidence": 0.0, "maturation_quality": 0.55, "maturation_evidence": 0.0, "specialist_exam": { "available": false, "score": 0.0, "mae_points": null, "evidence": 0.0, "exam": null }, "final_quality": 0.55, "final_evidence": 0.0, "residual_mae_points": 6.0 }, "completion_referee": null, "path_referee": null, "predicted_leader": "Abdul El-Sayed", "projected_margin_points": 2.365273399008383, "weighted_margin_contribution_points": 0.48816312620741426, "disagreement_points": 0.18372861667720386 }, { "model": "v1", "label": "V1 County Geo", "weight": 0.1897648028775624, "structural_strength": 1.105433755020258, "gate_cap": 0.42, "validation_log_adjustment": -0.48442873404169906, "benchmark_log_adjustment": 0.0, "weight_pre_benchmark": 0.18976480287756242, "uncertainty_penalty": 0.09132126283256352, "unvalidated_penalty": 0.0, "horizon_validation": { "short_path_quality": 0.589254528735769, "short_path_evidence": 0.5898586588970036, "maturation_quality": 0.3374278868570438, "maturation_evidence": 0.7700863821896933, "specialist_exam": { "available": false, "score": 0.0, "mae_points": null, "evidence": 0.0, "exam": null }, "final_quality": 0.3374278868570438, "final_evidence": 0.7700863821896933, "residual_mae_points": 5.82642525665127 }, "completion_referee": { "mae_points": 5.82642525665127, "raw_score": 0.27396328767881795, "usable_score": 0.3374278868570438, "windows_scored": 4, "informative_vote_coverage": 0.5930330360340104, "evidence": 0.7700863821896933, "strength_multiplier": 1.1225914112084479 }, "path_referee": { "mae_points": 2.6598957565382926, "raw_score": 0.6165490421199756, "usable_score": 0.589254528735769, "intervals_scored": 4, "informative_vote_coverage": 0.9381011357348019, "evidence": 0.5898586588970036, "strength_multiplier": 0.9750012092920427 }, "predicted_leader": "Abdul El-Sayed", "projected_margin_points": 0.01782936908477084, "weighted_margin_contribution_points": 0.0033833867098028436, "disagreement_points": 0.6121060510461522 }, { "model": "v0", "label": "V0 Raw", "weight": 0.13153084075531943, "structural_strength": 1.8063497561203015, "gate_cap": 0.45, "validation_log_adjustment": -0.9432278708278383, "benchmark_log_adjustment": 0.0, "weight_pre_benchmark": 0.13153084075531943, "uncertainty_penalty": 0.14534130779929444, "unvalidated_penalty": 0.0, "horizon_validation": { "short_path_quality": 0.5960141637281827, "short_path_evidence": 0.6090081831189499, "maturation_quality": 0.21548795659162212, "maturation_evidence": 1.0, "specialist_exam": { "available": false, "score": 0.0, "mae_points": null, "evidence": 0.0, "exam": null }, "final_quality": 0.21548795659162212, "final_evidence": 1.0, "residual_mae_points": 6.906826155985889 }, "completion_referee": { "mae_points": 6.906826155985889, "raw_score": 0.2154879565916221, "usable_score": 0.21548795659162212, "windows_scored": 4, "informative_vote_coverage": 1.0, "evidence": 1.0, "strength_multiplier": 0.8309628989235827 }, "path_referee": { "mae_points": 2.580130181238737, "raw_score": 0.6255559038509592, "usable_score": 0.5960141637281827, "intervals_scored": 4, "informative_vote_coverage": 1.0, "evidence": 0.6090081831189499, "strength_multiplier": 0.9812438454252695 }, "predicted_leader": "Abdul El-Sayed", "projected_margin_points": 3.0094856764877664, "weighted_margin_contribution_points": 0.3958401812695272, "disagreement_points": 0.4178946727704619 }, { "model": "latent", "label": "Latent Coalition Factors", "weight": 0.11460896814420396, "structural_strength": 1.2417168472295956, "gate_cap": 0.2527090325013272, "validation_log_adjustment": -0.9149625020637928, "benchmark_log_adjustment": 0.0, "weight_pre_benchmark": 0.11460896814420397, "uncertainty_penalty": 0.07597029924862557, "unvalidated_penalty": 0.0, "horizon_validation": { "short_path_quality": 0.6811748538733077, "short_path_evidence": 0.6090081831189499, "maturation_quality": 0.25924045130541196, "maturation_evidence": 1.0, "specialist_exam": { "available": true, "score": 0.3705514209458427, "mae_points": 4.9638152794908645, "evidence": 1.0, "exam": "held-out latent coalition factors" }, "final_quality": 0.2926337421975412, "final_evidence": 1.0, "residual_mae_points": 5.5194059849725114 }, "completion_referee": { "mae_points": 6.074996690454159, "raw_score": 0.25924045130541196, "usable_score": 0.25924045130541196, "windows_scored": 4, "informative_vote_coverage": 1.0, "evidence": 1.0, "strength_multiplier": 0.9372073114881438 }, "path_referee": { "mae_points": 1.4705268821986817, "raw_score": 0.7653909545213564, "usable_score": 0.6811748538733077, "intervals_scored": 4, "informative_vote_coverage": 1.0, "evidence": 0.6090081831189499, "strength_multiplier": 1.0744693835027321 }, "predicted_leader": "Abdul El-Sayed", "projected_margin_points": 1.730936529206023, "weighted_margin_contribution_points": 0.19838084953541207, "disagreement_points": 0.09655633481326781 }, { "model": "histgeo", "label": "Historical Coalition Geography", "weight": 0.08614748568391185, "structural_strength": 0.680689563125467, "gate_cap": 0.24249579556172088, "validation_log_adjustment": -0.5927124524518204, "benchmark_log_adjustment": 0.0, "weight_pre_benchmark": 0.08614748568391184, "uncertainty_penalty": 0.051176822994837855, "unvalidated_penalty": 0.0, "horizon_validation": { "short_path_quality": 0.6781502087045048, "short_path_evidence": 0.6090081831189499, "maturation_quality": 0.2615765604883897, "maturation_evidence": 1.0, "specialist_exam": { "available": true, "score": 0.4821328465755259, "mae_points": 4.012445731824946, "evidence": 1.0, "exam": "held-out historical coalition geography" }, "final_quality": 0.32774344631453056, "final_evidence": 1.0, "residual_mae_points": 5.023536459896757 }, "completion_referee": { "mae_points": 6.034627187968569, "raw_score": 0.2615765604883897, "usable_score": 0.2615765604883897, "windows_scored": 4, "informative_vote_coverage": 1.0, "evidence": 1.0, "strength_multiplier": 0.9432475941770844 }, "path_referee": { "mae_points": 1.5063318700354804, "raw_score": 0.7604244446243752, "usable_score": 0.6781502087045048, "intervals_scored": 4, "informative_vote_coverage": 1.0, "evidence": 0.6090081831189499, "strength_multiplier": 1.0710113447458673 }, "predicted_leader": "Abdul El-Sayed", "projected_margin_points": 1.9874391116240175, "weighted_margin_contribution_points": 0.17121288241627655, "disagreement_points": 0.060268517054198195 }, { "model": "batchbias", "label": "Within-County Batch Bias", "weight": 0.060824742559304285, "structural_strength": 0.5208215817978711, "gate_cap": 0.13546403432272314, "validation_log_adjustment": -0.5577821213084185, "benchmark_log_adjustment": 0.0, "weight_pre_benchmark": 0.060824742559304285, "uncertainty_penalty": 0.20755440006452847, "unvalidated_penalty": 0.0, "horizon_validation": { "short_path_quality": 0.49451026475286897, "short_path_evidence": 0.35144885730913816, "maturation_quality": 0.37398107276058357, "maturation_evidence": 0.501359732061591, "specialist_exam": { "available": true, "score": 0.18341567350639373, "mae_points": 9.328001441192093, "evidence": 0.37665726543829686, "exam": "prior-batch residual validation" }, "final_quality": 0.3891476654023228, "final_evidence": 0.6891762118206919, "residual_mae_points": 8.151088001290569 }, "completion_referee": { "mae_points": 7.266906505285562, "raw_score": 0.19891690340660842, "usable_score": 0.37398107276058357, "windows_scored": 4, "informative_vote_coverage": 0.2513615809328703, "evidence": 0.501359732061591, "strength_multiplier": 1.1339236043377035 }, "path_referee": { "mae_points": 5.149149818123109, "raw_score": 0.3921114933421971, "usable_score": 0.49451026475286897, "intervals_scored": 4, "informative_vote_coverage": 0.3330259031858547, "evidence": 0.35144885730913816, "strength_multiplier": 0.9292707205818581 }, "predicted_leader": "Abdul El-Sayed", "projected_margin_points": 1.8737681279252627, "weighted_margin_contribution_points": 0.11397146399688364, "disagreement_points": 0.029485862404544694 } ], "gate": { "weights": { "v0": 0.13153084075531943, "v1": 0.1897648028775624, "v3": 0.21073554896945648, "market": 0.20638761101024167, "histgeo": 0.08614748568391185, "latent": 0.11460896814420396, "batchbias": 0.060824742559304285 }, "experts": { "v0": { "structural_strength": 1.8063497561203015, "completion_multiplier": 0.8309628989235827, "validation_log_adjustment": -0.9432278708278383, "uncertainty_penalty": 0.14534130779929444, "unvalidated_penalty": 0.0, "horizon_validation": { "short_path_quality": 0.5960141637281827, "short_path_evidence": 0.6090081831189499, "maturation_quality": 0.21548795659162212, "maturation_evidence": 1.0, "specialist_exam": { "available": false, "score": 0.0, "mae_points": null, "evidence": 0.0, "exam": null }, "final_quality": 0.21548795659162212, "final_evidence": 1.0, "residual_mae_points": 6.906826155985889 }, "trust_memory": { "available": true, "score": 0.2824971336997282, "windows": 4 }, "weight": 0.13153084075531943, "cap": 0.45, "weight_pre_benchmark": 0.13153084075531943, "benchmark_log_adjustment": 0.0 }, "v1": { "structural_strength": 1.105433755020258, "completion_multiplier": 1.1225914112084479, "validation_log_adjustment": -0.48442873404169906, "uncertainty_penalty": 0.09132126283256352, "unvalidated_penalty": 0.0, "horizon_validation": { "short_path_quality": 0.589254528735769, "short_path_evidence": 0.5898586588970036, "maturation_quality": 0.3374278868570438, "maturation_evidence": 0.7700863821896933, "specialist_exam": { "available": false, "score": 0.0, "mae_points": null, "evidence": 0.0, "exam": null }, "final_quality": 0.3374278868570438, "final_evidence": 0.7700863821896933, "residual_mae_points": 5.82642525665127 }, "trust_memory": { "available": true, "score": 0.3470486468804888, "windows": 4 }, "weight": 0.1897648028775624, "cap": 0.42, "weight_pre_benchmark": 0.18976480287756242, "benchmark_log_adjustment": 0.0 }, "v3": { "structural_strength": 2.1758974823458144, "completion_multiplier": 0.911737424814332, "validation_log_adjustment": -0.8400519427948487, "uncertainty_penalty": 0.11261809087980632, "unvalidated_penalty": 0.0, "horizon_validation": { "short_path_quality": 0.6700150915938691, "short_path_evidence": 0.6090081831189499, "maturation_quality": 0.2492213710187745, "maturation_evidence": 1.0, "specialist_exam": { "available": false, "score": 0.0, "mae_points": null, "evidence": 0.0, "exam": null }, "final_quality": 0.2492213710187745, "final_evidence": 1.0, "residual_mae_points": 6.252361817596126 }, "trust_memory": { "available": true, "score": 0.31842575340636115, "windows": 4 }, "weight": 0.21073554896945648, "cap": 0.44, "weight_pre_benchmark": 0.21073554896945648, "benchmark_log_adjustment": 0.0 }, "market": { "structural_strength": 1.396573426948696, "completion_multiplier": 1.0, "validation_log_adjustment": 0.0, "uncertainty_penalty": 0.1, "unvalidated_penalty": 0.52, "horizon_validation": { "short_path_quality": 0.55, "short_path_evidence": 0.0, "maturation_quality": 0.55, "maturation_evidence": 0.0, "specialist_exam": { "available": false, "score": 0.0, "mae_points": null, "evidence": 0.0, "exam": null }, "final_quality": 0.55, "final_evidence": 0.0, "residual_mae_points": 6.0 }, "trust_memory": { "available": false, "score": 0.55, "windows": 0 }, "weight": 0.20638761101024167, "cap": 0.26, "weight_pre_benchmark": 0.20638761101024167, "benchmark_log_adjustment": 0.0 }, "histgeo": { "structural_strength": 0.680689563125467, "completion_multiplier": 0.9740507111892837, "validation_log_adjustment": -0.5927124524518204, "uncertainty_penalty": 0.051176822994837855, "unvalidated_penalty": 0.0, "horizon_validation": { "short_path_quality": 0.6781502087045048, "short_path_evidence": 0.6090081831189499, "maturation_quality": 0.2615765604883897, "maturation_evidence": 1.0, "specialist_exam": { "available": true, "score": 0.4821328465755259, "mae_points": 4.012445731824946, "evidence": 1.0, "exam": "held-out historical coalition geography" }, "final_quality": 0.32774344631453056, "final_evidence": 1.0, "residual_mae_points": 5.023536459896757 }, "trust_memory": { "available": true, "score": 0.33148227535723174, "windows": 4 }, "weight": 0.08614748568391185, "cap": 0.24249579556172088, "weight_pre_benchmark": 0.08614748568391184, "benchmark_log_adjustment": 0.0 }, "latent": { "structural_strength": 1.2417168472295956, "completion_multiplier": 0.9712388601832956, "validation_log_adjustment": -0.9149625020637928, "uncertainty_penalty": 0.07597029924862557, "unvalidated_penalty": 0.0, "horizon_validation": { "short_path_quality": 0.6811748538733077, "short_path_evidence": 0.6090081831189499, "maturation_quality": 0.25924045130541196, "maturation_evidence": 1.0, "specialist_exam": { "available": true, "score": 0.3705514209458427, "mae_points": 4.9638152794908645, "evidence": 1.0, "exam": "held-out latent coalition factors" }, "final_quality": 0.2926337421975412, "final_evidence": 1.0, "residual_mae_points": 5.5194059849725114 }, "trust_memory": { "available": true, "score": 0.3281039036005744, "windows": 4 }, "weight": 0.11460896814420396, "cap": 0.2527090325013272, "weight_pre_benchmark": 0.11460896814420397, "benchmark_log_adjustment": 0.0 }, "batchbias": { "structural_strength": 0.5208215817978711, "completion_multiplier": 1.0581876975858213, "validation_log_adjustment": -0.5577821213084185, "uncertainty_penalty": 0.20755440006452847, "unvalidated_penalty": 0.0, "horizon_validation": { "short_path_quality": 0.49451026475286897, "short_path_evidence": 0.35144885730913816, "maturation_quality": 0.37398107276058357, "maturation_evidence": 0.501359732061591, "specialist_exam": { "available": true, "score": 0.18341567350639373, "mae_points": 9.328001441192093, "evidence": 0.37665726543829686, "exam": "prior-batch residual validation" }, "final_quality": 0.3891476654023228, "final_evidence": 0.6891762118206919, "residual_mae_points": 8.151088001290569 }, "trust_memory": { "available": true, "score": 0.38219688394581364, "windows": 4 }, "weight": 0.060824742559304285, "cap": 0.13546403432272314, "weight_pre_benchmark": 0.060824742559304285, "benchmark_log_adjustment": 0.0 } }, "horizon_validation": { "v0": { "short_path_quality": 0.5960141637281827, "short_path_evidence": 0.6090081831189499, "maturation_quality": 0.21548795659162212, "maturation_evidence": 1.0, "specialist_exam": { "available": false, "score": 0.0, "mae_points": null, "evidence": 0.0, "exam": null }, "final_quality": 0.21548795659162212, "final_evidence": 1.0, "residual_mae_points": 6.906826155985889 }, "v1": { "short_path_quality": 0.589254528735769, "short_path_evidence": 0.5898586588970036, "maturation_quality": 0.3374278868570438, "maturation_evidence": 0.7700863821896933, "specialist_exam": { "available": false, "score": 0.0, "mae_points": null, "evidence": 0.0, "exam": null }, "final_quality": 0.3374278868570438, "final_evidence": 0.7700863821896933, "residual_mae_points": 5.82642525665127 }, "v3": { "short_path_quality": 0.6700150915938691, "short_path_evidence": 0.6090081831189499, "maturation_quality": 0.2492213710187745, "maturation_evidence": 1.0, "specialist_exam": { "available": false, "score": 0.0, "mae_points": null, "evidence": 0.0, "exam": null }, "final_quality": 0.2492213710187745, "final_evidence": 1.0, "residual_mae_points": 6.252361817596126 }, "market": { "short_path_quality": 0.55, "short_path_evidence": 0.0, "maturation_quality": 0.55, "maturation_evidence": 0.0, "specialist_exam": { "available": false, "score": 0.0, "mae_points": null, "evidence": 0.0, "exam": null }, "final_quality": 0.55, "final_evidence": 0.0, "residual_mae_points": 6.0 }, "histgeo": { "short_path_quality": 0.6781502087045048, "short_path_evidence": 0.6090081831189499, "maturation_quality": 0.2615765604883897, "maturation_evidence": 1.0, "specialist_exam": { "available": true, "score": 0.4821328465755259, "mae_points": 4.012445731824946, "evidence": 1.0, "exam": "held-out historical coalition geography" }, "final_quality": 0.32774344631453056, "final_evidence": 1.0, "residual_mae_points": 5.023536459896757 }, "latent": { "short_path_quality": 0.6811748538733077, "short_path_evidence": 0.6090081831189499, "maturation_quality": 0.25924045130541196, "maturation_evidence": 1.0, "specialist_exam": { "available": true, "score": 0.3705514209458427, "mae_points": 4.9638152794908645, "evidence": 1.0, "exam": "held-out latent coalition factors" }, "final_quality": 0.2926337421975412, "final_evidence": 1.0, "residual_mae_points": 5.5194059849725114 }, "batchbias": { "short_path_quality": 0.49451026475286897, "short_path_evidence": 0.35144885730913816, "maturation_quality": 0.37398107276058357, "maturation_evidence": 0.501359732061591, "specialist_exam": { "available": true, "score": 0.18341567350639373, "mae_points": 9.328001441192093, "evidence": 0.37665726543829686, "exam": "prior-batch residual validation" }, "final_quality": 0.3891476654023228, "final_evidence": 0.6891762118206919, "residual_mae_points": 8.151088001290569 } }, "caps": { "v0": 0.45, "v1": 0.42, "v2r": 0.34, "v3": 0.44, "market": 0.26, "histgeo": 0.24249579556172088, "latent": 0.2527090325013272, "batchbias": 0.13546403432272314, "runoff_transfer": 0.58, "precinct": 0.38 }, "temperature": 0.88, "method_note": "V6 treats models as experts. Structural applicability, genuine completion validation, specialist held-out exams, uncertainty, and dynamic caps feed a softmax gate. A sticky multi-window trust memory adds hysteresis so one dump cannot violently rewrite expert weights. Path accuracy is kept separate. V6 then applies a second-stage county-benchmark breadth gate: independent validated experts that agree with broad county win-path performance can earn more weight.", "weights_pre_benchmark": { "v0": 0.13153084075531943, "v1": 0.18976480287756242, "v3": 0.21073554896945648, "market": 0.20638761101024167, "histgeo": 0.08614748568391184, "latent": 0.11460896814420397, "batchbias": 0.060824742559304285 }, "benchmark_gate_adjustments": { "v0": 0.0, "v1": 0.0, "v3": 0.0, "market": 0.0, "histgeo": 0.0, "latent": 0.0, "batchbias": 0.0 }, "benchmark_signal": { "available": true, "favored_candidate": "Abdul El-Sayed", "least_favored_candidate": "Mallory McMorrow", "evidence": 0.6671350391989715, "favored_signal_score": 0.03915837526743363, "favored_weighted_excess_points": 0.6016278877844345, "favored_breadth_balance": -0.23076923076923078, "candidates": { "Abdul El-Sayed": { "weighted_excess_points": 0.6016278877844345, "above_benchmark_counties": 18, "below_benchmark_counties": 30, "on_benchmark_counties": 4, "unique_counties": 37, "unique_markets": 7, "votes_scored": 37949.0, "breadth_balance": -0.23076923076923078, "evidence": 0.6671350391989715, "signal_score": 0.03915837526743363 }, "Haley Stevens": { "weighted_excess_points": -0.8565954088812535, "above_benchmark_counties": 28, "below_benchmark_counties": 18, "on_benchmark_counties": 6, "unique_counties": 37, "unique_markets": 7, "votes_scored": 37949.0, "breadth_balance": 0.19230769230769232, "evidence": 0.6671350391989715, "signal_score": -0.08767358497472703 }, "Mallory McMorrow": { "weighted_excess_points": -29.590177532489776, "above_benchmark_counties": 0, "below_benchmark_counties": 52, "on_benchmark_counties": 0, "unique_counties": 37, "unique_markets": 7, "votes_scored": 37949.0, "breadth_balance": -1.0, "evidence": 0.6671350391989715, "signal_score": -0.667135039155625 } }, "intervals": [ { "from_snapshot": 44, "to_snapshot": 45, "new_votes": 10283, "changed_counties": 13, "benchmark_observations_scored": 39 }, { "from_snapshot": 45, "to_snapshot": 46, "new_votes": 8299, "changed_counties": 14, "benchmark_observations_scored": 42 }, { "from_snapshot": 46, "to_snapshot": 47, "new_votes": 12360, "changed_counties": 12, "benchmark_observations_scored": 36 }, { "from_snapshot": 47, "to_snapshot": 48, "new_votes": 7007, "changed_counties": 13, "benchmark_observations_scored": 39 } ], "method_note": "V6 rebuilds county tie benchmarks and the preliminary expert gate exactly as they existed at each prior snapshot, then grades only later-arriving vote. Broad, repeated benchmark beats across independent counties are stronger evidence than one friendly dump." }, "crossover_consensus": { "available": false, "raw_leader": "Abdul El-Sayed", "candidate": null, "eligible": false, "score": 0.0, "independent_families": 0, "candidates": {} } }, "preliminary_gate": { "weights": { "v0": 0.13153084075531943, "v1": 0.18976480287756242, "v3": 0.21073554896945648, "market": 0.20638761101024167, "histgeo": 0.08614748568391184, "latent": 0.11460896814420397, "batchbias": 0.060824742559304285 }, "experts": { "v0": { "structural_strength": 1.8063497561203015, "completion_multiplier": 0.8309628989235827, "validation_log_adjustment": -0.9432278708278383, "uncertainty_penalty": 0.14534130779929444, "unvalidated_penalty": 0.0, "horizon_validation": { "short_path_quality": 0.5960141637281827, "short_path_evidence": 0.6090081831189499, "maturation_quality": 0.21548795659162212, "maturation_evidence": 1.0, "specialist_exam": { "available": false, "score": 0.0, "mae_points": null, "evidence": 0.0, "exam": null }, "final_quality": 0.21548795659162212, "final_evidence": 1.0, "residual_mae_points": 6.906826155985889 }, "trust_memory": { "available": true, "score": 0.2824971336997282, "windows": 4 }, "weight": 0.13153084075531943, "cap": 0.45, "weight_pre_benchmark": 0.13153084075531943, "benchmark_log_adjustment": 0.0 }, "v1": { "structural_strength": 1.105433755020258, "completion_multiplier": 1.1225914112084479, "validation_log_adjustment": -0.48442873404169906, "uncertainty_penalty": 0.09132126283256352, "unvalidated_penalty": 0.0, "horizon_validation": { "short_path_quality": 0.589254528735769, "short_path_evidence": 0.5898586588970036, "maturation_quality": 0.3374278868570438, "maturation_evidence": 0.7700863821896933, "specialist_exam": { "available": false, "score": 0.0, "mae_points": null, "evidence": 0.0, "exam": null }, "final_quality": 0.3374278868570438, "final_evidence": 0.7700863821896933, "residual_mae_points": 5.82642525665127 }, "trust_memory": { "available": true, "score": 0.3470486468804888, "windows": 4 }, "weight": 0.1897648028775624, "cap": 0.42, "weight_pre_benchmark": 0.18976480287756242, "benchmark_log_adjustment": 0.0 }, "v3": { "structural_strength": 2.1758974823458144, "completion_multiplier": 0.911737424814332, "validation_log_adjustment": -0.8400519427948487, "uncertainty_penalty": 0.11261809087980632, "unvalidated_penalty": 0.0, "horizon_validation": { "short_path_quality": 0.6700150915938691, "short_path_evidence": 0.6090081831189499, "maturation_quality": 0.2492213710187745, "maturation_evidence": 1.0, "specialist_exam": { "available": false, "score": 0.0, "mae_points": null, "evidence": 0.0, "exam": null }, "final_quality": 0.2492213710187745, "final_evidence": 1.0, "residual_mae_points": 6.252361817596126 }, "trust_memory": { "available": true, "score": 0.31842575340636115, "windows": 4 }, "weight": 0.21073554896945648, "cap": 0.44, "weight_pre_benchmark": 0.21073554896945648, "benchmark_log_adjustment": 0.0 }, "market": { "structural_strength": 1.396573426948696, "completion_multiplier": 1.0, "validation_log_adjustment": 0.0, "uncertainty_penalty": 0.1, "unvalidated_penalty": 0.52, "horizon_validation": { "short_path_quality": 0.55, "short_path_evidence": 0.0, "maturation_quality": 0.55, "maturation_evidence": 0.0, "specialist_exam": { "available": false, "score": 0.0, "mae_points": null, "evidence": 0.0, "exam": null }, "final_quality": 0.55, "final_evidence": 0.0, "residual_mae_points": 6.0 }, "trust_memory": { "available": false, "score": 0.55, "windows": 0 }, "weight": 0.20638761101024167, "cap": 0.26, "weight_pre_benchmark": 0.20638761101024167, "benchmark_log_adjustment": 0.0 }, "histgeo": { "structural_strength": 0.680689563125467, "completion_multiplier": 0.9740507111892837, "validation_log_adjustment": -0.5927124524518204, "uncertainty_penalty": 0.051176822994837855, "unvalidated_penalty": 0.0, "horizon_validation": { "short_path_quality": 0.6781502087045048, "short_path_evidence": 0.6090081831189499, "maturation_quality": 0.2615765604883897, "maturation_evidence": 1.0, "specialist_exam": { "available": true, "score": 0.4821328465755259, "mae_points": 4.012445731824946, "evidence": 1.0, "exam": "held-out historical coalition geography" }, "final_quality": 0.32774344631453056, "final_evidence": 1.0, "residual_mae_points": 5.023536459896757 }, "trust_memory": { "available": true, "score": 0.33148227535723174, "windows": 4 }, "weight": 0.08614748568391185, "cap": 0.24249579556172088, "weight_pre_benchmark": 0.08614748568391184, "benchmark_log_adjustment": 0.0 }, "latent": { "structural_strength": 1.2417168472295956, "completion_multiplier": 0.9712388601832956, "validation_log_adjustment": -0.9149625020637928, "uncertainty_penalty": 0.07597029924862557, "unvalidated_penalty": 0.0, "horizon_validation": { "short_path_quality": 0.6811748538733077, "short_path_evidence": 0.6090081831189499, "maturation_quality": 0.25924045130541196, "maturation_evidence": 1.0, "specialist_exam": { "available": true, "score": 0.3705514209458427, "mae_points": 4.9638152794908645, "evidence": 1.0, "exam": "held-out latent coalition factors" }, "final_quality": 0.2926337421975412, "final_evidence": 1.0, "residual_mae_points": 5.5194059849725114 }, "trust_memory": { "available": true, "score": 0.3281039036005744, "windows": 4 }, "weight": 0.11460896814420396, "cap": 0.2527090325013272, "weight_pre_benchmark": 0.11460896814420397, "benchmark_log_adjustment": 0.0 }, "batchbias": { "structural_strength": 0.5208215817978711, "completion_multiplier": 1.0581876975858213, "validation_log_adjustment": -0.5577821213084185, "uncertainty_penalty": 0.20755440006452847, "unvalidated_penalty": 0.0, "horizon_validation": { "short_path_quality": 0.49451026475286897, "short_path_evidence": 0.35144885730913816, "maturation_quality": 0.37398107276058357, "maturation_evidence": 0.501359732061591, "specialist_exam": { "available": true, "score": 0.18341567350639373, "mae_points": 9.328001441192093, "evidence": 0.37665726543829686, "exam": "prior-batch residual validation" }, "final_quality": 0.3891476654023228, "final_evidence": 0.6891762118206919, "residual_mae_points": 8.151088001290569 }, "trust_memory": { "available": true, "score": 0.38219688394581364, "windows": 4 }, "weight": 0.060824742559304285, "cap": 0.13546403432272314, "weight_pre_benchmark": 0.060824742559304285, "benchmark_log_adjustment": 0.0 } }, "horizon_validation": { "v0": { "short_path_quality": 0.5960141637281827, "short_path_evidence": 0.6090081831189499, "maturation_quality": 0.21548795659162212, "maturation_evidence": 1.0, "specialist_exam": { "available": false, "score": 0.0, "mae_points": null, "evidence": 0.0, "exam": null }, "final_quality": 0.21548795659162212, "final_evidence": 1.0, "residual_mae_points": 6.906826155985889 }, "v1": { "short_path_quality": 0.589254528735769, "short_path_evidence": 0.5898586588970036, "maturation_quality": 0.3374278868570438, "maturation_evidence": 0.7700863821896933, "specialist_exam": { "available": false, "score": 0.0, "mae_points": null, "evidence": 0.0, "exam": null }, "final_quality": 0.3374278868570438, "final_evidence": 0.7700863821896933, "residual_mae_points": 5.82642525665127 }, "v3": { "short_path_quality": 0.6700150915938691, "short_path_evidence": 0.6090081831189499, "maturation_quality": 0.2492213710187745, "maturation_evidence": 1.0, "specialist_exam": { "available": false, "score": 0.0, "mae_points": null, "evidence": 0.0, "exam": null }, "final_quality": 0.2492213710187745, "final_evidence": 1.0, "residual_mae_points": 6.252361817596126 }, "market": { "short_path_quality": 0.55, "short_path_evidence": 0.0, "maturation_quality": 0.55, "maturation_evidence": 0.0, "specialist_exam": { "available": false, "score": 0.0, "mae_points": null, "evidence": 0.0, "exam": null }, "final_quality": 0.55, "final_evidence": 0.0, "residual_mae_points": 6.0 }, "histgeo": { "short_path_quality": 0.6781502087045048, "short_path_evidence": 0.6090081831189499, "maturation_quality": 0.2615765604883897, "maturation_evidence": 1.0, "specialist_exam": { "available": true, "score": 0.4821328465755259, "mae_points": 4.012445731824946, "evidence": 1.0, "exam": "held-out historical coalition geography" }, "final_quality": 0.32774344631453056, "final_evidence": 1.0, "residual_mae_points": 5.023536459896757 }, "latent": { "short_path_quality": 0.6811748538733077, "short_path_evidence": 0.6090081831189499, "maturation_quality": 0.25924045130541196, "maturation_evidence": 1.0, "specialist_exam": { "available": true, "score": 0.3705514209458427, "mae_points": 4.9638152794908645, "evidence": 1.0, "exam": "held-out latent coalition factors" }, "final_quality": 0.2926337421975412, "final_evidence": 1.0, "residual_mae_points": 5.5194059849725114 }, "batchbias": { "short_path_quality": 0.49451026475286897, "short_path_evidence": 0.35144885730913816, "maturation_quality": 0.37398107276058357, "maturation_evidence": 0.501359732061591, "specialist_exam": { "available": true, "score": 0.18341567350639373, "mae_points": 9.328001441192093, "evidence": 0.37665726543829686, "exam": "prior-batch residual validation" }, "final_quality": 0.3891476654023228, "final_evidence": 0.6891762118206919, "residual_mae_points": 8.151088001290569 } }, "caps": { "v0": 0.45, "v1": 0.42, "v2r": 0.34, "v3": 0.44, "market": 0.26, "histgeo": 0.24249579556172088, "latent": 0.2527090325013272, "batchbias": 0.13546403432272314, "runoff_transfer": 0.58, "precinct": 0.38 }, "temperature": 0.88, "method_note": "V6 treats models as experts. Structural applicability, genuine completion validation, specialist held-out exams, uncertainty, and dynamic caps feed a softmax gate. A sticky multi-window trust memory adds hysteresis so one dump cannot violently rewrite expert weights. Path accuracy is kept separate." }, "county_benchmarks": { "available": true, "projected_leader": "Abdul El-Sayed", "projected_runner_up": "Haley Stevens", "projected_statewide_margin_points": 1.88063211058202, "projected_statewide_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 49.05357763768492, "Haley Stevens": 47.1729455271029, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.7734768352121777 }, "expected_final_votes": 2455324.1381099336, "estimated_remaining_votes": 1886888.138109931, "leader_weighted_expected_excess_points": 1.223591722994783, "leader_recent_weighted_excess_points": -2.071322333959439, "leader_expected_status_counts": { "well_above": 0, "above": 167, "on_benchmark": 0, "below": 0, "well_below": 0 }, "leader_recent_status_counts": { "well_above": 3, "above": 0, "on_benchmark": 1, "below": 1, "well_below": 8 }, "top_leverage_counties": [ { "cid": "fips:26163", "county": "Wayne", "reporting": 22.97, "estimated_remaining_votes": 243867.3379252507, "expected_remaining_share_points": 41.64555593769401, "required_remaining_share_points": 40.43645064061567, "required_final_county_share_points": 39.0772880822506, "expected_excess_points": 1.2091052970783451, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "recent_excess_points": null, "status": "ABOVE", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "leverage": 0.19864370177452464, "criticality_score": 0.16428982839999362, "benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 25.825397063609934, "central": 40.43645064061567, "p90": 55.212785481365344 }, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 30.49878877943287, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 30.49878877943287, "feasible": true, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 40.148439545193234, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 40.148439545193234, "feasible": true, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 45.19248298831058, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 45.19248298831058, "feasible": true, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false } } }, { "cid": "26163", "county": "26163", "reporting": 0.0, "estimated_remaining_votes": 243867.33792525067, "expected_remaining_share_points": 45.51633874471458, "required_remaining_share_points": 44.28457031828452, "required_final_county_share_points": 44.28457031828452, "expected_excess_points": 1.2317684264300581, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "recent_excess_points": null, "status": "ABOVE", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "leverage": 0.19864370177452462, "criticality_score": 0.16126708357855765, "benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 29.673516741278785, "central": 44.28457031828452, "p90": 59.0609051590342 }, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 34.36957158645344, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 34.36957158645344, "feasible": true, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 44.0192223522138, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 44.0192223522138, "feasible": true, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 49.06326579533115, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 49.06326579533115, "feasible": true, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false } } }, { "cid": "fips:26099", "county": "Macomb", "reporting": 27.41, "estimated_remaining_votes": 87051.54937106234, "expected_remaining_share_points": 53.23162281223133, "required_remaining_share_points": 51.999169873725585, "required_final_county_share_points": 53.20272008465212, "expected_excess_points": 1.2324529385057446, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "recent_excess_points": null, "status": "ABOVE", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "leverage": 0.07090839699728863, "criticality_score": 0.057534364827966304, "benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 11.067575136457592, "central": 51.999169873725585, "p90": 93.39378568401717 }, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 22.004924918886502, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 22.004924918886502, "feasible": true, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 49.03758155918977, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 49.03758155918977, "feasible": true, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 63.16803019266629, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 63.16803019266629, "feasible": true, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false } } }, { "cid": "26099", "county": "26099", "reporting": 0.0, "estimated_remaining_votes": 87051.54937106233, "expected_remaining_share_points": 51.0656987941285, "required_remaining_share_points": 49.82773188621717, "required_final_county_share_points": 49.82773188621717, "expected_excess_points": 1.2379669079113285, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "recent_excess_points": null, "status": "ABOVE", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "leverage": 0.07090839699728861, "criticality_score": 0.05727810375555495, "benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 8.896137148949173, "central": 49.82773188621717, "p90": 91.22234769650878 }, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 19.839000900783667, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 19.839000900783667, "feasible": true, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 46.87165754108693, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 46.87165754108693, "feasible": true, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 61.002106174563465, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 61.002106174563465, "feasible": true, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false } } }, { "cid": "fips:26049", "county": "Genesee", "reporting": 3.4300000000000006, "estimated_remaining_votes": 64183.379378517384, "expected_remaining_share_points": 49.964640810874236, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.72970216224296, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.81797759487675, "expected_excess_points": 1.2349386486312781, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "recent_excess_points": null, "status": "ABOVE", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "leverage": 0.052280982687625634, "criticality_score": 0.042334882583495395, "benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 48.72970216224296, "p90": 100.0 }, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 7.612049537570229, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 7.612049537570229, "feasible": true, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 44.27628671143863, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 44.27628671143863, "feasible": true, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 63.441333157466964, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 63.441333157466964, "feasible": true, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false } } }, { "cid": "26049", "county": "26049", "reporting": 0.0, "estimated_remaining_votes": 64183.37937851738, "expected_remaining_share_points": 48.32016286564123, "required_remaining_share_points": 47.0877023519475, "required_final_county_share_points": 47.0877023519475, "expected_excess_points": 1.2324605136937308, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "recent_excess_points": null, "status": "ABOVE", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "leverage": 0.05228098268762563, "criticality_score": 0.04242000624501757, "benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 47.0877023519475, "p90": 100.0 }, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 5.967571592337215, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 5.967571592337215, "feasible": true, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 42.63180876620562, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 42.63180876620562, "feasible": true, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 61.796855212233964, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 61.796855212233964, "feasible": true, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false } } }, { "cid": "26125", "county": "26125", "reporting": 0.0, "estimated_remaining_votes": 58294.288272976875, "expected_remaining_share_points": 48.44529292257174, "required_remaining_share_points": 47.20377120432641, "required_final_county_share_points": 47.20377120432641, "expected_excess_points": 1.2415217182453304, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "recent_excess_points": null, "status": "ABOVE", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "leverage": 0.04748398581529103, "criticality_score": 0.03824660101991705, "benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 47.20377120432641, "p90": 100.0 }, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1.8140960439252893, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 1.8140960439252893, "feasible": true, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 42.18228157069173, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 42.18228157069173, "feasible": true, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 63.28344745322575, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 63.28344745322575, "feasible": true, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false } } }, { "cid": "fips:26125", "county": "Oakland", "reporting": 76.49, "estimated_remaining_votes": 58294.28827297687, "expected_remaining_share_points": 48.05095048633834, "required_remaining_share_points": 46.806775165819126, "required_final_county_share_points": 47.34469559576671, "expected_excess_points": 1.2441753205192114, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "recent_excess_points": null, "status": "ABOVE", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "leverage": 0.04748398581529102, "criticality_score": 0.038165027896129064, "benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 46.806775165819126, "p90": 100.0 }, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1.4197536076918809, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 1.4197536076918809, "feasible": true, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 41.78793913445833, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 41.78793913445833, "feasible": true, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 62.889105016992346, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 62.889105016992346, "feasible": true, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false } } }, { "cid": "26081", "county": "26081", "reporting": 0.0, "estimated_remaining_votes": 46918.32971673878, "expected_remaining_share_points": 55.5704454339816, "required_remaining_share_points": 54.35989329691363, "required_final_county_share_points": 54.35989329691363, "expected_excess_points": 1.210552137067964, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "recent_excess_points": null, "status": "ABOVE", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "leverage": 0.038217625924417215, "criticality_score": 0.03157040886895032, "benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 54.35989329691363, "p90": 100.0 }, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -2.367090914162368, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 47.788885617005285, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 47.788885617005285, "feasible": true, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 74.00630329318261, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 74.00630329318261, "feasible": true, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false } } }, { "cid": "fips:26081", "county": "Kent", "reporting": 53.71, "estimated_remaining_votes": 46918.32971673878, "expected_remaining_share_points": 58.955819082444094, "required_remaining_share_points": 57.77711302226799, "required_final_county_share_points": 61.143310409537044, "expected_excess_points": 1.1787060601761041, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "recent_excess_points": null, "status": "ABOVE", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "leverage": 0.038217625924417215, "criticality_score": 0.03242337272679104, "benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 57.77711302226799, "p90": 100.0 }, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1.0182827343001293, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 1.0182827343001293, "feasible": true, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 51.17425926546778, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 51.17425926546778, "feasible": true, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 77.3916769416451, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 77.3916769416451, "feasible": true, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false } } }, { "cid": "fips:26077", "county": "Kalamazoo", "reporting": 3.45, "estimated_remaining_votes": 42085.15108479823, "expected_remaining_share_points": 48.734671319991016, "required_remaining_share_points": 47.504644632416884, "required_final_county_share_points": 47.49328823422302, "expected_excess_points": 1.2300266875741315, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "recent_excess_points": null, "status": "ABOVE", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "leverage": 0.03428072931926182, "criticality_score": 0.027869906942320537, "benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 47.504644632416884, "p90": 100.0 }, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -15.856576739937118, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 40.05945500752544, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 40.05945500752544, "feasible": true, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 69.28775561107643, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 69.28775561107643, "feasible": true, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false } } }, { "cid": "26077", "county": "26077", "reporting": 0.0, "estimated_remaining_votes": 42085.15108479823, "expected_remaining_share_points": 50.90024768957419, "required_remaining_share_points": 49.669690025912665, "required_final_county_share_points": 49.66969002591267, "expected_excess_points": 1.2305576636615285, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "recent_excess_points": null, "status": "ABOVE", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "leverage": 0.03428072931926182, "criticality_score": 0.027857881293639985, "benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 49.669690025912665, "p90": 100.0 }, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -13.69100037035394, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 42.22503137710862, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 42.22503137710862, "feasible": true, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 71.45333198065961, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 71.45333198065961, "feasible": true, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false } } } ], "most_pivotal_counties": [ { "cid": "fips:26163", "county": "Wayne", "reporting": 22.97, "estimated_remaining_votes": 243867.3379252507, "expected_remaining_share_points": 41.64555593769401, "required_remaining_share_points": 40.43645064061567, "required_final_county_share_points": 39.0772880822506, "expected_excess_points": 1.2091052970783451, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "recent_excess_points": null, "status": "ABOVE", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "leverage": 0.19864370177452464, "criticality_score": 0.16428982839999362, "benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 25.825397063609934, "central": 40.43645064061567, "p90": 55.212785481365344 }, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 30.49878877943287, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 30.49878877943287, "feasible": true, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 40.148439545193234, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 40.148439545193234, "feasible": true, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 45.19248298831058, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 45.19248298831058, "feasible": true, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false } } }, { "cid": "26163", "county": "26163", "reporting": 0.0, "estimated_remaining_votes": 243867.33792525067, "expected_remaining_share_points": 45.51633874471458, "required_remaining_share_points": 44.28457031828452, "required_final_county_share_points": 44.28457031828452, "expected_excess_points": 1.2317684264300581, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "recent_excess_points": null, "status": "ABOVE", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "leverage": 0.19864370177452462, "criticality_score": 0.16126708357855765, "benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 29.673516741278785, "central": 44.28457031828452, "p90": 59.0609051590342 }, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 34.36957158645344, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 34.36957158645344, "feasible": true, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 44.0192223522138, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 44.0192223522138, "feasible": true, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 49.06326579533115, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 49.06326579533115, "feasible": true, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false } } }, { "cid": "fips:26099", "county": "Macomb", "reporting": 27.41, "estimated_remaining_votes": 87051.54937106234, "expected_remaining_share_points": 53.23162281223133, "required_remaining_share_points": 51.999169873725585, "required_final_county_share_points": 53.20272008465212, "expected_excess_points": 1.2324529385057446, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "recent_excess_points": null, "status": "ABOVE", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "leverage": 0.07090839699728863, "criticality_score": 0.057534364827966304, "benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 11.067575136457592, "central": 51.999169873725585, "p90": 93.39378568401717 }, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 22.004924918886502, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 22.004924918886502, "feasible": true, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 49.03758155918977, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 49.03758155918977, "feasible": true, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 63.16803019266629, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 63.16803019266629, "feasible": true, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false } } }, { "cid": "26099", "county": "26099", "reporting": 0.0, "estimated_remaining_votes": 87051.54937106233, "expected_remaining_share_points": 51.0656987941285, "required_remaining_share_points": 49.82773188621717, "required_final_county_share_points": 49.82773188621717, "expected_excess_points": 1.2379669079113285, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "recent_excess_points": null, "status": "ABOVE", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "leverage": 0.07090839699728861, "criticality_score": 0.05727810375555495, "benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 8.896137148949173, "central": 49.82773188621717, "p90": 91.22234769650878 }, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 19.839000900783667, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 19.839000900783667, "feasible": true, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 46.87165754108693, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 46.87165754108693, "feasible": true, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 61.002106174563465, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 61.002106174563465, "feasible": true, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false } } }, { "cid": "26049", "county": "26049", "reporting": 0.0, "estimated_remaining_votes": 64183.37937851738, "expected_remaining_share_points": 48.32016286564123, "required_remaining_share_points": 47.0877023519475, "required_final_county_share_points": 47.0877023519475, "expected_excess_points": 1.2324605136937308, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "recent_excess_points": null, "status": "ABOVE", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "leverage": 0.05228098268762563, "criticality_score": 0.04242000624501757, "benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 47.0877023519475, "p90": 100.0 }, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 5.967571592337215, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 5.967571592337215, "feasible": true, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 42.63180876620562, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 42.63180876620562, "feasible": true, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 61.796855212233964, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 61.796855212233964, "feasible": true, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false } } }, { "cid": "fips:26049", "county": "Genesee", "reporting": 3.4300000000000006, "estimated_remaining_votes": 64183.379378517384, "expected_remaining_share_points": 49.964640810874236, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.72970216224296, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.81797759487675, "expected_excess_points": 1.2349386486312781, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "recent_excess_points": null, "status": "ABOVE", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "leverage": 0.052280982687625634, "criticality_score": 0.042334882583495395, "benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 48.72970216224296, "p90": 100.0 }, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 7.612049537570229, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 7.612049537570229, "feasible": true, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 44.27628671143863, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 44.27628671143863, "feasible": true, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 63.441333157466964, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 63.441333157466964, "feasible": true, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false } } }, { "cid": "26125", "county": "26125", "reporting": 0.0, "estimated_remaining_votes": 58294.288272976875, "expected_remaining_share_points": 48.44529292257174, "required_remaining_share_points": 47.20377120432641, "required_final_county_share_points": 47.20377120432641, "expected_excess_points": 1.2415217182453304, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "recent_excess_points": null, "status": "ABOVE", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "leverage": 0.04748398581529103, "criticality_score": 0.03824660101991705, "benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 47.20377120432641, "p90": 100.0 }, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1.8140960439252893, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 1.8140960439252893, "feasible": true, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 42.18228157069173, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 42.18228157069173, "feasible": true, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 63.28344745322575, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 63.28344745322575, "feasible": true, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false } } }, { "cid": "fips:26125", "county": "Oakland", "reporting": 76.49, "estimated_remaining_votes": 58294.28827297687, "expected_remaining_share_points": 48.05095048633834, "required_remaining_share_points": 46.806775165819126, "required_final_county_share_points": 47.34469559576671, "expected_excess_points": 1.2441753205192114, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "recent_excess_points": null, "status": "ABOVE", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "leverage": 0.04748398581529102, "criticality_score": 0.038165027896129064, "benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 46.806775165819126, "p90": 100.0 }, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1.4197536076918809, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 1.4197536076918809, "feasible": true, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 41.78793913445833, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 41.78793913445833, "feasible": true, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 62.889105016992346, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 62.889105016992346, "feasible": true, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false } } } ], "tipping_county": { "cid": "fips:26163", "county": "Wayne", "expected_margin_contribution_points": -1.291829165914926, "distance_from_statewide_margin_points": 0.5888029446670942, "estimated_remaining_votes": 243867.3379252507 }, "counties": [ { "cid": "fips:26163", "county": "Wayne", "fips": "26163", "reporting": 22.97, "current_votes": 69886, "current_candidate_votes": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 23995, "Haley Stevens": 43382, "Mallory McMorrow": 2509 }, "current_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 34.33448759408179, "Haley Stevens": 62.07537990441576, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.5901325015024463 }, "estimated_remaining_votes": 243867.3379252507, "estimated_final_votes": 313753.3379252507, "turnout_disagreement_votes": 0.0, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 41.64555593769401, "Haley Stevens": 54.652051027895745, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.702393034410266 }, "remaining_sources": [ { "model": "v3", "remaining_votes": 243867.3379252507, "weight": 0.1342208488636769 }, { "model": "histgeo", "remaining_votes": 243867.3379252507, "weight": 0.05994207394479305 }, { "model": "latent", "remaining_votes": 243867.3379252507, "weight": 0.07672787409296966 }, { "model": "batchbias", "remaining_votes": 243867.3379252507, "weight": 0.045123489075924846 } ], "share_sources": [ { "model": "v0", "weight": 0.03630604611298715, "source": "statewide raw" }, { "model": "v1", "weight": 0.14599140026529184, "source": "county live" }, { "model": "v3", "weight": 0.15004242351696637, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "market", "weight": 0.0786646379365536, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "histgeo", "weight": 0.06573339512824654, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "latent", "weight": 0.08483492578364633, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "batchbias", "weight": 0.04883898267529022, "source": "county remaining" } ], "candidate_benchmarks": { "Abdul El-Sayed": { "opponent": "Haley Stevens", "expected_remaining_share_points": 41.64555593769401, "expected_final_county_share_points": 40.017075024501594, "current_county_share_points": 34.33448759408179, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 40.43645064061567, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 40.43645064061567, "required_final_county_share_points": 39.0772880822506, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 25.825397063609934, "central": 40.43645064061567, "p90": 55.212785481365344 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 32.178192543929406, "feasible": true, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": false }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 40.43645064061567, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 40.43645064061567, "required_final_county_share_points": 39.0772880822506, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 25.825397063609934, "central": 40.43645064061567, "p90": 55.212785481365344 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 41.07821168709322, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 41.07821168709322, "required_final_county_share_points": 39.576102083795625, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.024044322225107804, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999973, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 41.72261645522827, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 41.72261645522827, "required_final_county_share_points": 40.07697093953628, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.003259695682198218, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.9999999999999996, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": 1.2091052970783451, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "ABOVE", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.19864370177452464, "criticality_score": 0.16428982839999362, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 30.49878877943287, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 30.49878877943287, "feasible": true, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 40.148439545193234, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 40.148439545193234, "feasible": true, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 45.19248298831058, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 45.19248298831058, "feasible": true, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false } } }, "Haley Stevens": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 54.652051027895745, "expected_final_county_share_points": 56.30553706025175, "current_county_share_points": 62.07537990441576, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 55.86115632497408, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 55.86115632497408, "required_final_county_share_points": 57.24532400250275, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 41.084821484224406, "central": 55.86115632497408, "p90": 70.47220990197982 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 64.11941442166035, "feasible": true, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": false }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 55.86115632497408, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 55.86115632497408, "required_final_county_share_points": 57.24532400250275, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 41.084821484224406, "central": 55.86115632497408, "p90": 70.47220990197982 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 56.50028355998876, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 56.50028355998876, "required_final_county_share_points": 57.742090852631655, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.07865391656842785, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.999999999999999, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 57.136786853384415, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 57.136786853384415, "required_final_county_share_points": 58.23681822276097, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.10597932088248406, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -1.209105297078338, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.19864370177452464, "criticality_score": 0.1642898283999946, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 65.79881818615688, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 65.79881818615688, "feasible": true, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 75.44846895191725, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 75.44846895191725, "feasible": true, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 80.4925123950346, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 80.4925123950346, "feasible": true, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false } } }, "Mallory McMorrow": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 3.702393034410266, "expected_final_county_share_points": 3.677387915246673, "current_county_share_points": 3.5901325015024463, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 30.150192710830886, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 30.150192710830886, "required_final_county_share_points": 24.234155673381593, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 15.373857870081212, "central": 30.150192710830886, "p90": 44.76124628783662 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 231.64871299309203, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 30.150192710830886, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 30.150192710830886, "required_final_county_share_points": 24.234155673381593, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 15.373857870081212, "central": 30.150192710830886, "p90": 44.76124628783662 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 30.688501383508104, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 30.688501383508104, "required_final_county_share_points": 24.652560474605234, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.159018308558073, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999906, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 31.22480773049429, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 31.22480773049429, "required_final_county_share_points": 25.069408951873374, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.213613509684069, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.999999999999993, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -26.44779967642062, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "WELL BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.19864370177452464, "criticality_score": 0.007510783664609509, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 14.849160192671405, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 14.849160192671405, "feasible": true, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 24.498810958431765, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 24.498810958431765, "feasible": true, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 29.54285440154911, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 29.54285440154911, "feasible": true, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false } } } } }, { "cid": "26163", "county": "26163", "fips": null, "reporting": 0.0, "current_votes": 0, "current_candidate_votes": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 0, "Haley Stevens": 0, "Mallory McMorrow": 0 }, "current_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": null, "Haley Stevens": null, "Mallory McMorrow": null }, "estimated_remaining_votes": 243867.33792525067, "estimated_final_votes": 243867.33792525067, "turnout_disagreement_votes": 2.9103830456733704e-11, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 45.51633874471458, "Haley Stevens": 50.90232394506936, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.5813373102160573 }, "remaining_sources": [ { "model": "market", "remaining_votes": 243867.3379252507, "weight": 0.1780093144963334 } ], "share_sources": [ { "model": "v0", "weight": 0.03630604611298715, "source": "statewide raw" }, { "model": "v3", "weight": 0.06301781787712588, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "market", "weight": 0.18729675699179427, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "histgeo", "weight": 0.02760802595386354, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "latent", "weight": 0.03563066882913146, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "batchbias", "weight": 0.020512372723621893, "source": "statewide fallback" } ], "candidate_benchmarks": { "Abdul El-Sayed": { "opponent": "Haley Stevens", "expected_remaining_share_points": 45.51633874471458, "expected_final_county_share_points": 45.51633874471459, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 44.28457031828452, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 44.28457031828452, "required_final_county_share_points": 44.28457031828452, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 29.673516741278785, "central": 44.28457031828452, "p90": 59.0609051590342 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 36.048975350949966, "feasible": true, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": false }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 44.28457031828452, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 44.28457031828452, "required_final_county_share_points": 44.28457031828452, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 29.673516741278785, "central": 44.28457031828452, "p90": 59.0609051590342 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 44.93898245592348, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 44.93898245592348, "required_final_county_share_points": 44.93898245592348, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.024044322225107804, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999973, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 45.59467450126506, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 45.59467450126506, "required_final_county_share_points": 45.594674501265054, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.003259695682198218, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.9999999999999996, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": 1.2317684264300581, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "ABOVE", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.19864370177452462, "criticality_score": 0.16126708357855765, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 34.36957158645344, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 34.36957158645344, "feasible": true, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 44.0192223522138, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 44.0192223522138, "feasible": true, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 49.06326579533115, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 49.06326579533115, "feasible": true, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false } } }, "Haley Stevens": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 50.90232394506936, "expected_final_county_share_points": 50.90232394506936, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 52.13409237149942, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 52.13409237149942, "required_final_county_share_points": 52.13409237149942, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 37.357757530749744, "central": 52.13409237149942, "p90": 66.74514594850515 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 60.36968733883398, "feasible": true, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": false }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 52.13409237149942, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 52.13409237149942, "required_final_county_share_points": 52.13409237149942, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 37.357757530749744, "central": 52.13409237149942, "p90": 66.74514594850515 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 52.78722187419612, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 52.78722187419612, "required_final_county_share_points": 52.78722187419612, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.07865391656842785, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.999999999999999, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 53.43906603929837, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 53.43906603929837, "required_final_county_share_points": 53.43906603929837, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.10597932088248406, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -1.2317684264300581, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.19864370177452462, "criticality_score": 0.16126708357855765, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 62.049091103330504, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 62.049091103330504, "feasible": true, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 71.69874186909087, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 71.69874186909087, "feasible": true, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 76.74278531220821, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 76.74278531220821, "feasible": true, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false } } }, "Mallory McMorrow": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 3.5813373102160573, "expected_final_county_share_points": 3.5813373102160573, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 31.28154163489656, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 31.28154163489656, "required_final_county_share_points": 31.28154163489656, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 16.50520679414688, "central": 31.28154163489656, "p90": 45.8925952119023 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 231.5276572688978, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 31.28154163489656, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 31.28154163489656, "required_final_county_share_points": 31.28154163489656, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 16.50520679414688, "central": 31.28154163489656, "p90": 45.8925952119023 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 31.8871645758567, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 31.8871645758567, "required_final_county_share_points": 31.8871645758567, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.159018308558073, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999906, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 32.492319773721604, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 32.492319773721604, "required_final_county_share_points": 32.492319773721604, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.213613509684069, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.999999999999993, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -27.700204324680502, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "WELL BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.19864370177452462, "criticality_score": 0.007171199874418825, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 14.728104468477198, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 14.728104468477198, "feasible": true, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 24.377755234237558, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 24.377755234237558, "feasible": true, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 29.421798677354907, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 29.421798677354907, "feasible": true, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false } } } } }, { "cid": "fips:26099", "county": "Macomb", "fips": "26099", "reporting": 27.41, "current_votes": 31576, "current_candidate_votes": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 17847, "Haley Stevens": 12862, "Mallory McMorrow": 867 }, "current_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 56.52077527235876, "Haley Stevens": 40.73346845705599, "Mallory McMorrow": 2.7457562705852547 }, "estimated_remaining_votes": 87051.54937106234, "estimated_final_votes": 118627.54937106234, "turnout_disagreement_votes": 1.4551915228366852e-11, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 53.23162281223133, "Haley Stevens": 43.52786560085431, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.2405115869143555 }, "remaining_sources": [ { "model": "v3", "remaining_votes": 87051.54937106233, "weight": 0.1342208488636769 }, { "model": "histgeo", "remaining_votes": 87051.54937106233, "weight": 0.05994207394479305 }, { "model": "latent", "remaining_votes": 87051.54937106233, "weight": 0.07672787409296966 }, { "model": "batchbias", "remaining_votes": 87051.54937106233, "weight": 0.045123489075924846 } ], "share_sources": [ { "model": "v0", "weight": 0.03630604611298715, "source": "statewide raw" }, { "model": "v1", "weight": 0.14599140026529184, "source": "county live" }, { "model": "v3", "weight": 0.15004242351696637, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "market", "weight": 0.0786646379365536, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "histgeo", "weight": 0.06573339512824654, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "latent", "weight": 0.08483492578364633, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "batchbias", "weight": 0.04883898267529022, "source": "county remaining" } ], "candidate_benchmarks": { "Abdul El-Sayed": { "opponent": "Haley Stevens", "expected_remaining_share_points": 53.23162281223133, "expected_final_county_share_points": 54.107121620321166, "current_county_share_points": 56.52077527235876, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 51.999169873725585, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 51.999169873725585, "required_final_county_share_points": 53.20272008465212, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 11.067575136457592, "central": 51.999169873725585, "p90": 93.39378568401717 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 26.70962837687643, "feasible": true, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": false }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 51.999169873725585, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 51.999169873725585, "required_final_county_share_points": 53.20272008465212, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 11.067575136457592, "central": 51.999169873725585, "p90": 93.39378568401717 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 52.65517626974121, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 52.65517626974121, "required_final_county_share_points": 53.68411225260344, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.024044322225107804, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999973, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 53.30966855287589, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 53.30966855287589, "required_final_county_share_points": 54.164393330652715, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.003259695682198218, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.9999999999999996, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": 1.2324529385057446, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "ABOVE", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.07090839699728863, "criticality_score": 0.057534364827966304, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 22.004924918886502, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 22.004924918886502, "feasible": true, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 49.03758155918977, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 49.03758155918977, "feasible": true, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 63.16803019266629, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 63.16803019266629, "feasible": true, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false } } }, "Haley Stevens": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 43.52786560085431, "expected_final_county_share_points": 42.78405959052718, "current_county_share_points": 40.73346845705599, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 44.760318539360064, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 44.760318539360064, "required_final_county_share_points": 43.688461126196216, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 3.365702729068474, "central": 44.760318539360064, "p90": 85.69191327662806 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 70.04986003620921, "feasible": true, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": false }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 44.760318539360064, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 44.760318539360064, "required_final_county_share_points": 43.688461126196216, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 3.365702729068474, "central": 44.760318539360064, "p90": 85.69191327662806 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 45.41783777995146, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 45.41783777995146, "required_final_county_share_points": 44.17096345333886, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.07865391656842785, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.999999999999999, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 46.07686854924514, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 46.07686854924514, "required_final_county_share_points": 44.654574974055414, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.10597932088248406, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -1.2324529385057517, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.07090839699728863, "criticality_score": 0.05753436482796597, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 74.75456349419915, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 74.75456349419915, "feasible": true, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 101.7872201345024, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 115.91766876797894, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Mallory McMorrow": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 3.2405115869143555, "expected_final_county_share_points": 3.108818789151658, "current_county_share_points": 2.7457562705852547, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 32.52744151348054, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 32.52744151348054, "required_final_county_share_points": 24.60022310413644, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 32.52744151348054, "p90": 73.45903625074854 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 641.8122847466453, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 32.52744151348054, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 32.52744151348054, "required_final_county_share_points": 24.60022310413644, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 32.52744151348054, "p90": 73.45903625074854 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 33.265695057931325, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 33.265695057931325, "required_final_county_share_points": 25.141970069439562, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.159018308558073, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999906, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 34.00822064741608, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 34.00822064741608, "required_final_county_share_points": 25.686851956952257, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.213613509684069, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.999999999999993, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -29.286929926566184, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "WELL BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.07090839699728863, "criticality_score": 0.0024211618348213273, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 34.467209480259186, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 34.467209480259186, "feasible": true, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 61.499866120562444, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 61.499866120562444, "feasible": true, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 75.63031475403898, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 75.63031475403898, "feasible": true, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false } } } } }, { "cid": "26099", "county": "26099", "fips": null, "reporting": 0.0, "current_votes": 0, "current_candidate_votes": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 0, "Haley Stevens": 0, "Mallory McMorrow": 0 }, "current_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": null, "Haley Stevens": null, "Mallory McMorrow": null }, "estimated_remaining_votes": 87051.54937106233, "estimated_final_votes": 87051.54937106233, "turnout_disagreement_votes": 0.0, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 51.0656987941285, "Haley Stevens": 45.569276045116666, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.3650251607548363 }, "remaining_sources": [ { "model": "market", "remaining_votes": 87051.54937106233, "weight": 0.1780093144963334 } ], "share_sources": [ { "model": "v0", "weight": 0.03630604611298715, "source": "statewide raw" }, { "model": "v3", "weight": 0.06301781787712588, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "market", "weight": 0.18729675699179427, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "histgeo", "weight": 0.02760802595386354, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "latent", "weight": 0.03563066882913146, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "batchbias", "weight": 0.020512372723621893, "source": "statewide fallback" } ], "candidate_benchmarks": { "Abdul El-Sayed": { "opponent": "Haley Stevens", "expected_remaining_share_points": 51.0656987941285, "expected_final_county_share_points": 51.065698794128494, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 49.82773188621717, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 49.82773188621717, "required_final_county_share_points": 49.82773188621717, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 8.896137148949173, "central": 49.82773188621717, "p90": 91.22234769650878 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 24.543704358773567, "feasible": true, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": false }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 49.82773188621717, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 49.82773188621717, "required_final_county_share_points": 49.82773188621717, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 8.896137148949173, "central": 49.82773188621717, "p90": 91.22234769650878 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 50.48632913946651, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 50.48632913946651, "required_final_county_share_points": 50.48632913946651, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.024044322225107804, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999973, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 51.1441868342374, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 51.1441868342374, "required_final_county_share_points": 51.1441868342374, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.003259695682198218, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.9999999999999996, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": 1.2379669079113285, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "ABOVE", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.07090839699728861, "criticality_score": 0.05727810375555495, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 19.839000900783667, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 19.839000900783667, "feasible": true, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 46.87165754108693, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 46.87165754108693, "feasible": true, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 61.002106174563465, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 61.002106174563465, "feasible": true, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false } } }, "Haley Stevens": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 45.569276045116666, "expected_final_county_share_points": 45.56927604511666, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 46.80724295302798, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 46.80724295302798, "required_final_county_share_points": 46.80724295302798, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 5.412627142736376, "central": 46.80724295302798, "p90": 87.73883769029598 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 72.09127048047161, "feasible": true, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": false }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 46.80724295302798, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 46.80724295302798, "required_final_county_share_points": 46.80724295302798, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 5.412627142736376, "central": 46.80724295302798, "p90": 87.73883769029598 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 47.466574469917525, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 47.466574469917525, "required_final_county_share_points": 47.466574469917525, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.07865391656842785, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.999999999999999, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.12663491756927, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.12663491756927, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.12663491756927, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.10597932088248406, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -1.2379669079113143, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.07090839699728861, "criticality_score": 0.05727810375555561, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 76.7959739384615, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 76.7959739384615, "feasible": true, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 103.82863057876476, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 117.9590792122413, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Mallory McMorrow": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 3.3650251607548363, "expected_final_county_share_points": 3.3650251607548363, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 32.39817483241233, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 32.39817483241233, "required_final_county_share_points": 32.39817483241233, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 32.39817483241233, "p90": 73.32976956968034 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 641.9367983204861, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 32.39817483241233, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 32.39817483241233, "required_final_county_share_points": 32.39817483241233, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 32.39817483241233, "p90": 73.32976956968034 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 33.099428262388464, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 33.099428262388464, "required_final_county_share_points": 33.099428262388464, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.159018308558073, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999906, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 33.803286602273005, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 33.803286602273005, "required_final_county_share_points": 33.803286602273005, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.213613509684069, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.999999999999993, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -29.033149671657494, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "WELL BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.07090839699728861, "criticality_score": 0.002442325334977701, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 34.591723054099674, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 34.591723054099674, "feasible": true, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 61.62437969440293, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 61.62437969440293, "feasible": true, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 75.75482832787948, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 75.75482832787948, "feasible": true, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false } } } } }, { "cid": "fips:26049", "county": "Genesee", "fips": "26049", "reporting": 3.4300000000000006, "current_votes": 2213, "current_candidate_votes": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 1137, "Haley Stevens": 999, "Mallory McMorrow": 77 }, "current_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 51.37821961138725, "Haley Stevens": 45.142340713962945, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.4794396746497966 }, "estimated_remaining_votes": 64183.379378517384, "estimated_final_votes": 66396.37937851739, "turnout_disagreement_votes": 7.275957614183426e-12, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 49.964640810874236, "Haley Stevens": 46.307663096836585, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.7276960922891837 }, "remaining_sources": [ { "model": "v3", "remaining_votes": 64183.37937851738, "weight": 0.1342208488636769 }, { "model": "histgeo", "remaining_votes": 64183.37937851738, "weight": 0.05994207394479305 }, { "model": "latent", "remaining_votes": 64183.37937851738, "weight": 0.07672787409296966 }, { "model": "batchbias", "remaining_votes": 64183.37937851738, "weight": 0.045123489075924846 } ], "share_sources": [ { "model": "v0", "weight": 0.03630604611298715, "source": "statewide raw" }, { "model": "v1", "weight": 0.14599140026529184, "source": "county live" }, { "model": "v3", "weight": 0.15004242351696637, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "market", "weight": 0.0786646379365536, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "histgeo", "weight": 0.06573339512824654, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "latent", "weight": 0.08483492578364633, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "batchbias", "weight": 0.04883898267529022, "source": "county remaining" } ], "candidate_benchmarks": { "Abdul El-Sayed": { "opponent": "Haley Stevens", "expected_remaining_share_points": 49.964640810874236, "expected_final_county_share_points": 50.01175557699274, "current_county_share_points": 51.37821961138725, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.72970216224296, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.72970216224296, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.81797759487675, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 48.72970216224296, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 13.99301185702228, "feasible": true, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": false }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.72970216224296, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.72970216224296, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.81797759487675, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 48.72970216224296, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 49.38653910357338, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 49.38653910357338, "required_final_county_share_points": 49.45292207513068, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.024044322225107804, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999973, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 50.04297729133514, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 50.04297729133514, "required_final_county_share_points": 50.0874810923245, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.003259695682198218, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.9999999999999996, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": 1.2349386486312781, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "ABOVE", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.052280982687625634, "criticality_score": 0.042334882583495395, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 7.612049537570229, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 7.612049537570229, "feasible": true, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 44.27628671143863, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 44.27628671143863, "feasible": true, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 63.441333157466964, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 63.441333157466964, "feasible": true, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false } } }, "Haley Stevens": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 46.307663096836585, "expected_final_county_share_points": 46.26882274955503, "current_county_share_points": 45.142340713962945, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 47.54260174546786, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 47.54260174546786, "required_final_county_share_points": 47.46260073167103, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 47.54260174546786, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 82.27929205068854, "feasible": true, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": false }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 47.54260174546786, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 47.54260174546786, "required_final_county_share_points": 47.46260073167103, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 47.54260174546786, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.19983128370718, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.19983128370718, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.097924723527576, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.07865391656842785, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.999999999999999, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.857447235441455, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.857447235441455, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.73362224966682, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.10597932088248406, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -1.2349386486312781, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.052280982687625634, "criticality_score": 0.042334882583495395, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 88.66025437014059, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 88.66025437014059, "feasible": true, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 125.32449154400899, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 144.48953799003732, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Mallory McMorrow": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 3.7276960922891837, "expected_final_county_share_points": 3.719421673452217, "current_county_share_points": 3.4794396746497966, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 33.54396650996579, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 33.54396650996579, "required_final_county_share_points": 32.54191190233035, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 33.54396650996579, "p90": 89.05925371686244 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 869.8189299357201, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 33.54396650996579, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 33.54396650996579, "required_final_county_share_points": 32.54191190233035, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 33.54396650996579, "p90": 89.05925371686244 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 34.21599970086275, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 34.21599970086275, "required_final_county_share_points": 33.19154613916723, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.159018308558073, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999906, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 34.88840211774535, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 34.88840211774535, "required_final_county_share_points": 33.8415372956394, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.213613509684069, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.999999999999993, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -29.81627041767661, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "WELL BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.052280982687625634, "criticality_score": 0.001753438037529697, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 46.08028736559319, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 46.08028736559319, "feasible": true, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 82.74452453946158, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 82.74452453946158, "feasible": true, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 101.90957098548992, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } } } }, { "cid": "26049", "county": "26049", "fips": null, "reporting": 0.0, "current_votes": 0, "current_candidate_votes": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 0, "Haley Stevens": 0, "Mallory McMorrow": 0 }, "current_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": null, "Haley Stevens": null, "Mallory McMorrow": null }, "estimated_remaining_votes": 64183.37937851738, "estimated_final_votes": 64183.37937851738, "turnout_disagreement_votes": 0.0, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 48.32016286564123, "Haley Stevens": 47.702062163697065, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.977774970661694 }, "remaining_sources": [ { "model": "market", "remaining_votes": 64183.37937851738, "weight": 0.1780093144963334 } ], "share_sources": [ { "model": "v0", "weight": 0.03630604611298715, "source": "statewide raw" }, { "model": "v3", "weight": 0.06301781787712588, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "market", "weight": 0.18729675699179427, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "histgeo", "weight": 0.02760802595386354, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "latent", "weight": 0.03563066882913146, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "batchbias", "weight": 0.020512372723621893, "source": "statewide fallback" } ], "candidate_benchmarks": { "Abdul El-Sayed": { "opponent": "Haley Stevens", "expected_remaining_share_points": 48.32016286564123, "expected_final_county_share_points": 48.32016286564123, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 47.0877023519475, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 47.0877023519475, "required_final_county_share_points": 47.0877023519475, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 47.0877023519475, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 12.348533911789305, "feasible": true, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": false }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 47.0877023519475, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 47.0877023519475, "required_final_county_share_points": 47.0877023519475, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 47.0877023519475, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 47.742972592446094, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 47.742972592446094, "required_final_county_share_points": 47.742972592446094, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.024044322225107804, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999973, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.39840954113892, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.39840954113892, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.39840954113892, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.003259695682198218, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.9999999999999996, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": 1.2324605136937308, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "ABOVE", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.05228098268762563, "criticality_score": 0.04242000624501757, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 5.967571592337215, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 5.967571592337215, "feasible": true, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 42.63180876620562, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 42.63180876620562, "feasible": true, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 61.796855212233964, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 61.796855212233964, "feasible": true, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false } } }, "Haley Stevens": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 47.702062163697065, "expected_final_county_share_points": 47.702062163697065, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.934522677390795, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.934522677390795, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.934522677390795, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 48.934522677390795, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 83.673691117549, "feasible": true, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": false }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.934522677390795, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.934522677390795, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.934522677390795, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 48.934522677390795, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 49.58961977714004, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 49.58961977714004, "required_final_county_share_points": 49.58961977714004, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.07865391656842785, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.999999999999999, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 50.24453729886916, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 50.24453729886916, "required_final_county_share_points": 50.24453729886916, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.10597932088248406, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -1.2324605136937308, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.05228098268762563, "criticality_score": 0.04242000624501757, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 90.05465343700108, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 90.05465343700108, "feasible": true, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 126.71889061086948, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 145.88393705689782, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Mallory McMorrow": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 3.977774970661694, "expected_final_county_share_points": 3.977774970661694, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 33.863682428690794, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 33.863682428690794, "required_final_county_share_points": 33.863682428690794, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 33.863682428690794, "p90": 89.37896963558745 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 870.0690088140929, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 33.863682428690794, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 33.863682428690794, "required_final_county_share_points": 33.863682428690794, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 33.863682428690794, "p90": 89.37896963558745 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 34.500179277232114, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 34.500179277232114, "required_final_county_share_points": 34.500179277232114, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.159018308558073, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999906, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 35.13548073892272, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 35.13548073892272, "required_final_county_share_points": 35.13548073892272, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.213613509684069, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.999999999999993, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -29.8859074580291, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "WELL BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.05228098268762563, "criticality_score": 0.0017493523581657182, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 46.330366243965706, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 46.330366243965706, "feasible": true, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 82.99460341783411, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 82.99460341783411, "feasible": true, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 102.15964986386246, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } } } }, { "cid": "26125", "county": "26125", "fips": null, "reporting": 0.0, "current_votes": 0, "current_candidate_votes": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 0, "Haley Stevens": 0, "Mallory McMorrow": 0 }, "current_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": null, "Haley Stevens": null, "Mallory McMorrow": null }, "estimated_remaining_votes": 58294.288272976875, "estimated_final_votes": 58294.288272976875, "turnout_disagreement_votes": 0.0, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 48.44529292257174, "Haley Stevens": 48.29116444492259, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.2635426325056844 }, "remaining_sources": [ { "model": "market", "remaining_votes": 58294.288272976875, "weight": 0.1780093144963334 } ], "share_sources": [ { "model": "v0", "weight": 0.03630604611298715, "source": "statewide raw" }, { "model": "v3", "weight": 0.06301781787712588, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "market", "weight": 0.18729675699179427, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "histgeo", "weight": 0.02760802595386354, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "latent", "weight": 0.03563066882913146, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "batchbias", "weight": 0.020512372723621893, "source": "statewide fallback" } ], "candidate_benchmarks": { "Abdul El-Sayed": { "opponent": "Haley Stevens", "expected_remaining_share_points": 48.44529292257174, "expected_final_county_share_points": 48.44529292257174, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 47.20377120432641, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 47.20377120432641, "required_final_county_share_points": 47.20377120432641, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 47.20377120432641, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 8.839685299455613, "feasible": true, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": false }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 47.20377120432641, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 47.20377120432641, "required_final_county_share_points": 47.20377120432641, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 47.20377120432641, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 47.86382063640788, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 47.86382063640788, "required_final_county_share_points": 47.86382063640788, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.024044322225107804, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999973, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.52412530103267, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.52412530103267, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.524125301032676, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.003259695682198218, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.9999999999999996, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": 1.2415217182453304, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "ABOVE", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.04748398581529103, "criticality_score": 0.03824660101991705, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1.8140960439252893, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 1.8140960439252893, "feasible": true, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 42.18228157069173, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 42.18228157069173, "feasible": true, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 63.28344745322575, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 63.28344745322575, "feasible": true, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false } } }, "Haley Stevens": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 48.29116444492259, "expected_final_county_share_points": 48.291164444922586, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 49.53268616316792, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 49.53268616316792, "required_final_county_share_points": 49.53268616316792, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 49.53268616316792, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 87.89677206803871, "feasible": true, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": false }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 49.53268616316792, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 49.53268616316792, "required_final_county_share_points": 49.53268616316792, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 49.53268616316792, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 50.192473968431194, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 50.192473968431194, "required_final_county_share_points": 50.192473968431194, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.07865391656842785, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.999999999999999, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 50.85199375122856, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 50.85199375122856, "required_final_county_share_points": 50.85199375122856, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.10597932088248406, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -1.2415217182453233, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.04748398581529103, "criticality_score": 0.038246601019917274, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 94.92236132356905, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 94.92236132356905, "feasible": true, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 135.2905468503355, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 156.3917127328695, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Mallory McMorrow": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 3.2635426325056844, "expected_final_county_share_points": 3.263542632505684, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 31.052247924277015, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 31.052247924277015, "required_final_county_share_points": 31.052247924277015, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 31.052247924277015, "p90": 92.17588191432183 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 956.850315626011, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 31.052247924277015, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 31.052247924277015, "required_final_county_share_points": 31.052247924277015, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 31.052247924277015, "p90": 92.17588191432183 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 31.71537621950914, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 31.71537621950914, "required_final_county_share_points": 31.715376219509146, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.159018308558073, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999906, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 32.380589865647586, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 32.380589865647586, "required_final_county_share_points": 32.380589865647586, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.213613509684069, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.999999999999993, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -27.78870529177133, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "WELL BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.04748398581529103, "criticality_score": 0.0017087512828225136, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 49.89473951115213, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 49.89473951115213, "feasible": true, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 90.26292503791858, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 90.26292503791858, "feasible": true, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 111.3640909204526, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } } } }, { "cid": "fips:26125", "county": "Oakland", "fips": "26125", "reporting": 76.49, "current_votes": 189661, "current_candidate_votes": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 90108, "Haley Stevens": 94384, "Mallory McMorrow": 5169 }, "current_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 47.51003105540939, "Haley Stevens": 49.764579961088465, "Mallory McMorrow": 2.7253889835021434 }, "estimated_remaining_votes": 58294.28827297687, "estimated_final_votes": 247955.28827297688, "turnout_disagreement_votes": 7.275957614183426e-12, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 48.05095048633834, "Haley Stevens": 48.926352045629464, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.022697468032217 }, "remaining_sources": [ { "model": "v3", "remaining_votes": 58294.288272976875, "weight": 0.1342208488636769 }, { "model": "histgeo", "remaining_votes": 58294.288272976875, "weight": 0.05994207394479305 }, { "model": "latent", "remaining_votes": 58294.288272976875, "weight": 0.07672787409296966 }, { "model": "batchbias", "remaining_votes": 58294.288272976875, "weight": 0.045123489075924846 } ], "share_sources": [ { "model": "v0", "weight": 0.03630604611298715, "source": "statewide raw" }, { "model": "v1", "weight": 0.14599140026529184, "source": "county live" }, { "model": "v3", "weight": 0.15004242351696637, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "market", "weight": 0.0786646379365536, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "histgeo", "weight": 0.06573339512824654, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "latent", "weight": 0.08483492578364633, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "batchbias", "weight": 0.04883898267529022, "source": "county remaining" } ], "candidate_benchmarks": { "Abdul El-Sayed": { "opponent": "Haley Stevens", "expected_remaining_share_points": 48.05095048633834, "expected_final_county_share_points": 47.637201213620784, "current_county_share_points": 47.51003105540939, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 46.806775165819126, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 46.806775165819126, "required_final_county_share_points": 47.34469559576671, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 46.806775165819126, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 8.445342863222184, "feasible": true, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": false }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 46.806775165819126, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 46.806775165819126, "required_final_county_share_points": 47.34469559576671, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 46.806775165819126, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 47.46815093345519, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 47.46815093345519, "required_final_county_share_points": 47.50018503873796, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.024044322225107804, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999973, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.129974262940294, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.129974262940294, "required_final_county_share_points": 47.6557797034999, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.003259695682198218, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.9999999999999996, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": 1.2441753205192114, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "ABOVE", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.04748398581529102, "criticality_score": 0.038165027896129064, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1.4197536076918809, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 1.4197536076918809, "feasible": true, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 41.78793913445833, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 41.78793913445833, "feasible": true, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 62.889105016992346, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 62.889105016992346, "feasible": true, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false } } }, "Haley Stevens": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 48.926352045629464, "expected_final_county_share_points": 49.567512578164056, "current_county_share_points": 49.764579961088465, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 50.170527366148676, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 50.170527366148676, "required_final_county_share_points": 49.86001819601812, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 50.170527366148676, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 88.53195966874561, "feasible": true, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": false }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 50.170527366148676, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 50.170527366148676, "required_final_county_share_points": 49.86001819601812, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 50.170527366148676, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 50.831449473251624, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 50.831449473251624, "required_final_county_share_points": 50.01540098339802, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.07865391656842785, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.999999999999999, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 51.4919118268501, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 51.4919118268501, "required_final_county_share_points": 50.170675682729026, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.10597932088248406, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -1.2441753205192114, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.04748398581529102, "criticality_score": 0.038165027896129064, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 95.55754892427592, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 95.55754892427592, "feasible": true, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 135.92573445104236, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 157.0269003335764, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Mallory McMorrow": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 3.022697468032217, "expected_final_county_share_points": 2.7952862082151637, "current_county_share_points": 2.7253889835021434, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 29.826151683555835, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 29.826151683555835, "required_final_county_share_points": 9.096778294284768, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 29.826151683555835, "p90": 90.94978567360067 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 956.6094704615377, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 29.826151683555835, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 29.826151683555835, "required_final_county_share_points": 9.096778294284768, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 29.826151683555835, "p90": 90.94978567360067 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 30.490052066337945, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 30.490052066337945, "required_final_county_share_points": 9.25286127427684, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.159018308558073, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999906, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 31.157221746726655, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 31.157221746726655, "required_final_county_share_points": 9.409712866136227, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.213613509684069, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.999999999999993, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -26.80345421552362, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "WELL BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.04748398581529102, "criticality_score": 0.001771562181257592, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 49.653894346678676, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 49.653894346678676, "feasible": true, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 90.02207987344512, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 90.02207987344512, "feasible": true, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 111.12324575597916, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } } } }, { "cid": "26081", "county": "26081", "fips": null, "reporting": 0.0, "current_votes": 0, "current_candidate_votes": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 0, "Haley Stevens": 0, "Mallory McMorrow": 0 }, "current_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": null, "Haley Stevens": null, "Mallory McMorrow": null }, "estimated_remaining_votes": 46918.32971673878, "estimated_final_votes": 46918.32971673878, "turnout_disagreement_votes": 0.0, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 55.5704454339816, "Haley Stevens": 40.684312848059704, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.7452417179586988 }, "remaining_sources": [ { "model": "market", "remaining_votes": 46918.32971673878, "weight": 0.1780093144963334 } ], "share_sources": [ { "model": "v0", "weight": 0.03630604611298715, "source": "statewide raw" }, { "model": "v3", "weight": 0.06301781787712588, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "market", "weight": 0.18729675699179427, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "histgeo", "weight": 0.02760802595386354, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "latent", "weight": 0.03563066882913146, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "batchbias", "weight": 0.020512372723621893, "source": "statewide fallback" } ], "candidate_benchmarks": { "Abdul El-Sayed": { "opponent": "Haley Stevens", "expected_remaining_share_points": 55.5704454339816, "expected_final_county_share_points": 55.5704454339816, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 54.35989329691363, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 54.35989329691363, "required_final_county_share_points": 54.35989329691363, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 54.35989329691363, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 6.36194372586022, "feasible": true, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": false }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 54.35989329691363, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 54.35989329691363, "required_final_county_share_points": 54.35989329691363, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 54.35989329691363, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 55.00466430849242, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 55.00466430849242, "required_final_county_share_points": 55.00466430849242, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.024044322225107804, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999973, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 55.64699026577373, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 55.64699026577373, "required_final_county_share_points": 55.64699026577373, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.003259695682198218, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.9999999999999996, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": 1.210552137067964, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "ABOVE", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.038217625924417215, "criticality_score": 0.03157040886895032, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -2.367090914162368, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 47.788885617005285, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 47.788885617005285, "feasible": true, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 74.00630329318261, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 74.00630329318261, "feasible": true, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false } } }, "Haley Stevens": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 40.684312848059704, "expected_final_county_share_points": 40.684312848059704, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 41.89486498512767, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 41.89486498512767, "required_final_county_share_points": 41.89486498512767, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 41.89486498512767, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 89.8928145561811, "feasible": true, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": false }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 41.89486498512767, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 41.89486498512767, "required_final_county_share_points": 41.89486498512767, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 41.89486498512767, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 42.542088607376265, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 42.542088607376265, "required_final_county_share_points": 42.542088607376265, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.07865391656842785, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.999999999999999, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 43.191772393951084, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 43.191772393951084, "required_final_county_share_points": 43.191772393951084, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.10597932088248406, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -1.210552137067964, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.038217625924417215, "criticality_score": 0.03157040886895032, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 98.62184919620367, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 98.62184919620367, "feasible": true, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 148.7778257273713, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 174.99524340354864, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Mallory McMorrow": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 3.7452417179586988, "expected_final_county_share_points": 3.7452417179586983, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 35.62681895925808, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 35.62681895925808, "required_final_county_share_points": 35.62681895925808, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 35.62681895925808, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1188.5415158775038, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 35.62681895925808, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 35.62681895925808, "required_final_county_share_points": 35.62681895925808, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 35.62681895925808, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 36.38742530155471, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 36.38742530155471, "required_final_county_share_points": 36.38742530155471, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.159018308558073, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999906, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 37.15041458783238, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 37.15041458783238, "required_final_county_share_points": 37.15041458783238, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.213613509684069, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.999999999999993, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -31.881577241299382, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "WELL BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.038217625924417215, "criticality_score": 0.00119873698955239, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 61.682778066102664, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 61.682778066102664, "feasible": true, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 111.83875459727031, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 138.05617227344763, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } } } }, { "cid": "fips:26081", "county": "Kent", "fips": "26081", "reporting": 53.71, "current_votes": 44593, "current_candidate_votes": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 28845, "Haley Stevens": 14106, "Mallory McMorrow": 1642 }, "current_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 64.6850402529545, "Haley Stevens": 31.632767474715763, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.682192272329738 }, "estimated_remaining_votes": 46918.32971673878, "estimated_final_votes": 91511.32971673878, "turnout_disagreement_votes": 0.0, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 58.955819082444094, "Haley Stevens": 37.253445813321854, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.790735104234047 }, "remaining_sources": [ { "model": "v3", "remaining_votes": 46918.32971673878, "weight": 0.1342208488636769 }, { "model": "histgeo", "remaining_votes": 46918.32971673878, "weight": 0.05994207394479305 }, { "model": "latent", "remaining_votes": 46918.32971673878, "weight": 0.07672787409296966 }, { "model": "batchbias", "remaining_votes": 46918.32971673878, "weight": 0.045123489075924846 } ], "share_sources": [ { "model": "v0", "weight": 0.03630604611298715, "source": "statewide raw" }, { "model": "v1", "weight": 0.14599140026529184, "source": "county live" }, { "model": "v3", "weight": 0.15004242351696637, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "market", "weight": 0.0786646379365536, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "histgeo", "weight": 0.06573339512824654, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "latent", "weight": 0.08483492578364633, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "batchbias", "weight": 0.04883898267529022, "source": "county remaining" } ], "candidate_benchmarks": { "Abdul El-Sayed": { "opponent": "Haley Stevens", "expected_remaining_share_points": 58.955819082444094, "expected_final_county_share_points": 61.74763907290193, "current_county_share_points": 64.6850402529545, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 57.77711302226799, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 57.77711302226799, "required_final_county_share_points": 61.143310409537044, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 57.77711302226799, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 9.747317374322684, "feasible": true, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": false }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 57.77711302226799, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 57.77711302226799, "required_final_county_share_points": 61.143310409537044, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 57.77711302226799, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 58.405458715229976, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 58.405458715229976, "required_final_county_share_points": 61.46546648015406, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.024044322225107804, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999973, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 59.03020543489404, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 59.03020543489404, "required_final_county_share_points": 61.78577733863882, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.003259695682198218, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.9999999999999996, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": 1.1787060601761041, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "ABOVE", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.038217625924417215, "criticality_score": 0.03242337272679104, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1.0182827343001293, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 1.0182827343001293, "feasible": true, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 51.17425926546778, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 51.17425926546778, "feasible": true, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 77.3916769416451, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 77.3916769416451, "feasible": true, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false } } }, "Haley Stevens": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 37.253445813321854, "expected_final_county_share_points": 34.514518186225914, "current_county_share_points": 31.632767474715763, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 38.43215187349795, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 38.43215187349795, "required_final_county_share_points": 35.1188468495908, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 38.43215187349795, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 86.46194752144328, "feasible": true, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": false }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 38.43215187349795, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 38.43215187349795, "required_final_county_share_points": 35.1188468495908, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 38.43215187349795, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 39.064121442744295, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 39.064121442744295, "required_final_county_share_points": 35.4428609002294, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.07865391656842785, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.999999999999999, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 39.699739995801586, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 39.699739995801586, "required_final_county_share_points": 35.7687458036477, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.10597932088248406, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -1.178706060176097, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.038217625924417215, "criticality_score": 0.03242337272679124, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 95.19098216146583, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 95.19098216146583, "feasible": true, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 145.34695869263345, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 171.5643763688108, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Mallory McMorrow": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 3.790735104234047, "expected_final_county_share_points": 3.737842740872142, "current_county_share_points": 3.682192272329738, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 36.97590735309191, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 36.97590735309191, "required_final_county_share_points": 20.752051343218415, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 36.97590735309191, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1188.5870092637788, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 36.97590735309191, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 36.97590735309191, "required_final_county_share_points": 20.752051343218415, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 36.97590735309191, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 37.78822483357291, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 37.78822483357291, "required_final_county_share_points": 21.16853069612314, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.159018308558073, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999906, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 38.60407803748941, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 38.60407803748941, "required_final_county_share_points": 21.586822832630144, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.213613509684069, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.999999999999993, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -33.18517224885787, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "WELL BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.038217625924417215, "criticality_score": 0.0011516476587139772, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 61.72827145237801, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 61.72827145237801, "feasible": true, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 111.88424798354565, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 138.10166565972298, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } } } }, { "cid": "fips:26077", "county": "Kalamazoo", "fips": "26077", "reporting": 3.45, "current_votes": 1425, "current_candidate_votes": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 672, "Haley Stevens": 684, "Mallory McMorrow": 69 }, "current_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 47.1578947368421, "Haley Stevens": 48.0, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.842105263157895 }, "estimated_remaining_votes": 42085.15108479823, "estimated_final_votes": 43510.15108479823, "turnout_disagreement_votes": 0.0, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 48.734671319991016, "Haley Stevens": 47.095753229273704, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.169575450735297 }, "remaining_sources": [ { "model": "v3", "remaining_votes": 42085.15108479823, "weight": 0.1342208488636769 }, { "model": "histgeo", "remaining_votes": 42085.15108479823, "weight": 0.05994207394479305 }, { "model": "latent", "remaining_votes": 42085.15108479823, "weight": 0.07672787409296966 }, { "model": "batchbias", "remaining_votes": 42085.15108479823, "weight": 0.045123489075924846 } ], "share_sources": [ { "model": "v0", "weight": 0.03630604611298715, "source": "statewide raw" }, { "model": "v1", "weight": 0.14599140026529184, "source": "county live" }, { "model": "v3", "weight": 0.15004242351696637, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "market", "weight": 0.0786646379365536, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "histgeo", "weight": 0.06573339512824654, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "latent", "weight": 0.08483492578364633, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "batchbias", "weight": 0.04883898267529022, "source": "county remaining" } ], "candidate_benchmarks": { "Abdul El-Sayed": { "opponent": "Haley Stevens", "expected_remaining_share_points": 48.734671319991016, "expected_final_county_share_points": 48.68303034483999, "current_county_share_points": 47.1578947368421, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 47.504644632416884, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 47.504644632416884, "required_final_county_share_points": 47.49328823422302, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 47.504644632416884, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": -6.12507489682379, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": false }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 47.504644632416884, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 47.504644632416884, "required_final_county_share_points": 47.49328823422302, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 47.504644632416884, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.158704730197464, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.158704730197464, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.12592722414487, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.024044322225107804, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999973, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.812740738343926, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.812740738343926, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.75854291339167, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.003259695682198218, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.9999999999999996, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": 1.2300266875741315, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "ABOVE", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.03428072931926182, "criticality_score": 0.027869906942320537, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -15.856576739937118, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 40.05945500752544, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 40.05945500752544, "feasible": true, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 69.28775561107643, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 69.28775561107643, "feasible": true, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false } } }, "Haley Stevens": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 47.095753229273704, "expected_final_county_share_points": 47.12536819534848, "current_county_share_points": 48.0, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.325779916847814, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.325779916847814, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.31511030596544, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 48.325779916847814, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 101.95549944608851, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.325779916847814, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.325779916847814, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.31511030596544, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 48.325779916847814, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.97985761860826, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.97985761860826, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.947766323319584, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.07865391656842785, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.999999999999999, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 49.633946426461115, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 49.633946426461115, "required_final_county_share_points": 49.58043308303077, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.10597932088248406, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -1.2300266875741102, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.03428072931926182, "criticality_score": 0.02786990694232102, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 111.68700128920185, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 167.60303303666439, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 196.83133364021538, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Mallory McMorrow": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 4.169575450735297, "expected_final_county_share_points": 4.191601459811534, "current_county_share_points": 4.842105263157895, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 34.71907000596008, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 34.71907000596008, "required_final_county_share_points": 33.74057019161749, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 34.71907000596008, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1325.0312286778897, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 34.71907000596008, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 34.71907000596008, "required_final_county_share_points": 33.74057019161749, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 34.71907000596008, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 35.35515269829529, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 35.35515269829529, "required_final_county_share_points": 34.355820553703815, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.159018308558073, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999906, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 35.98944958427998, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 35.98944958427998, "required_final_county_share_points": 34.969343596344075, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.213613509684069, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.999999999999993, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -30.54949455522478, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "WELL BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.03428072931926182, "criticality_score": 0.0011221373649011454, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 68.76082351066343, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 68.76082351066343, "feasible": true, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 124.67685525812597, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 153.90515586167697, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } } } }, { "cid": "26077", "county": "26077", "fips": null, "reporting": 0.0, "current_votes": 0, "current_candidate_votes": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 0, "Haley Stevens": 0, "Mallory McMorrow": 0 }, "current_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": null, "Haley Stevens": null, "Mallory McMorrow": null }, "estimated_remaining_votes": 42085.15108479823, "estimated_final_votes": 42085.15108479823, "turnout_disagreement_votes": 0.0, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 50.90024768957419, "Haley Stevens": 45.17966253889734, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.9200897715284615 }, "remaining_sources": [ { "model": "market", "remaining_votes": 42085.15108479823, "weight": 0.1780093144963334 } ], "share_sources": [ { "model": "v0", "weight": 0.03630604611298715, "source": "statewide raw" }, { "model": "v3", "weight": 0.06301781787712588, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "market", "weight": 0.18729675699179427, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "histgeo", "weight": 0.02760802595386354, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "latent", "weight": 0.03563066882913146, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "batchbias", "weight": 0.020512372723621893, "source": "statewide fallback" } ], "candidate_benchmarks": { "Abdul El-Sayed": { "opponent": "Haley Stevens", "expected_remaining_share_points": 50.90024768957419, "expected_final_county_share_points": 50.9002476895742, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 49.669690025912665, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 49.669690025912665, "required_final_county_share_points": 49.66969002591267, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 49.669690025912665, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": -3.9594985272406014, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": false }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 49.669690025912665, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 49.669690025912665, "required_final_county_share_points": 49.66969002591267, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 49.669690025912665, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 50.3243665304265, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 50.3243665304265, "required_final_county_share_points": 50.3243665304265, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.024044322225107804, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999973, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 50.978260301772785, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 50.978260301772785, "required_final_county_share_points": 50.978260301772785, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.003259695682198218, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.9999999999999996, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": 1.2305576636615285, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "ABOVE", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.03428072931926182, "criticality_score": 0.027857881293639985, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -13.69100037035394, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 42.22503137710862, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 42.22503137710862, "feasible": true, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 71.45333198065961, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 71.45333198065961, "feasible": true, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false } } }, "Haley Stevens": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 45.17966253889734, "expected_final_county_share_points": 45.17966253889735, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 46.41022020255887, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 46.41022020255887, "required_final_county_share_points": 46.41022020255887, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 46.41022020255887, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 100.03940875571213, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 46.41022020255887, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 46.41022020255887, "required_final_county_share_points": 46.41022020255887, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 46.41022020255887, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 47.065674342109794, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 47.065674342109794, "required_final_county_share_points": 47.0656743421098, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.07865391656842785, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.999999999999999, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 47.7219009794269, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 47.7219009794269, "required_final_county_share_points": 47.7219009794269, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.10597932088248406, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -1.2305576636615285, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.03428072931926182, "criticality_score": 0.027857881293639985, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 109.77091059882548, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 165.68694234628802, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 194.915242949839, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Mallory McMorrow": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 3.9200897715284615, "expected_final_county_share_points": 3.9200897715284615, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 34.655365995069495, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 34.655365995069495, "required_final_county_share_points": 34.655365995069495, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 34.655365995069495, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1324.781742998683, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 34.655365995069495, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 34.655365995069495, "required_final_county_share_points": 34.655365995069495, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 34.655365995069495, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 35.33567012761816, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 35.33567012761816, "required_final_county_share_points": 35.33567012761816, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.159018308558073, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999906, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 36.01580912167236, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 36.01580912167236, "required_final_county_share_points": 36.01580912167236, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.213613509684069, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.999999999999993, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -30.735276223541035, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "WELL BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.03428072931926182, "criticality_score": 0.001115354521948471, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 68.5113378314566, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 68.5113378314566, "feasible": true, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 124.42736957891914, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 153.65567018247015, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } } } }, { "cid": "26065", "county": "26065", "fips": null, "reporting": 0.0, "current_votes": 0, "current_candidate_votes": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 0, "Haley Stevens": 0, "Mallory McMorrow": 0 }, "current_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": null, "Haley Stevens": null, "Mallory McMorrow": null }, "estimated_remaining_votes": 38632.62316125496, "estimated_final_votes": 38632.62316125496, "turnout_disagreement_votes": 0.0, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 54.99777016776418, "Haley Stevens": 41.14031902440786, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.861910807827952 }, "remaining_sources": [ { "model": "market", "remaining_votes": 38632.62316125496, "weight": 0.1780093144963334 } ], "share_sources": [ { "model": "v0", "weight": 0.03630604611298715, "source": "statewide raw" }, { "model": "v3", "weight": 0.06301781787712588, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "market", "weight": 0.18729675699179427, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "histgeo", "weight": 0.02760802595386354, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "latent", "weight": 0.03563066882913146, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "batchbias", "weight": 0.020512372723621893, "source": "statewide fallback" } ], "candidate_benchmarks": { "Abdul El-Sayed": { "opponent": "Haley Stevens", "expected_remaining_share_points": 54.99777016776418, "expected_final_county_share_points": 54.99777016776418, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 53.785122988624344, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 53.785122988624344, "required_final_county_share_points": 53.785122988624344, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 53.785122988624344, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": -4.764692721989583, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": false }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 53.785122988624344, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 53.785122988624344, "required_final_county_share_points": 53.785122988624344, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 53.785122988624344, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 54.43092810739958, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 54.43092810739958, "required_final_county_share_points": 54.43092810739958, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.024044322225107804, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999973, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 55.07446955736345, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 55.07446955736345, "required_final_county_share_points": 55.07446955736345, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.003259695682198218, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.9999999999999996, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": 1.2126471791398359, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "ABOVE", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.031468450589984986, "criticality_score": 0.02595021134861867, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -15.36588135057223, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 45.54726540448473, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 45.54726540448473, "feasible": true, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 77.38764656933402, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 77.38764656933402, "feasible": true, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false } } }, "Haley Stevens": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 41.14031902440786, "expected_final_county_share_points": 41.14031902440786, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 42.35296620354768, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 42.35296620354768, "required_final_county_share_points": 42.35296620354768, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 42.35296620354768, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 100.90278191416162, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 42.35296620354768, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 42.35296620354768, "required_final_county_share_points": 42.35296620354768, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 42.35296620354768, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 43.00104051727138, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 43.00104051727138, "required_final_county_share_points": 43.00104051727138, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.07865391656842785, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.999999999999999, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 43.65138953432688, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 43.65138953432688, "required_final_county_share_points": 43.65138953432688, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.10597932088248406, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -1.2126471791398217, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.031468450589984986, "criticality_score": 0.025950211348618975, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 111.50397054274427, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 172.4171172978012, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 204.25749846265052, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Mallory McMorrow": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 3.861910807827952, "expected_final_county_share_points": 3.861910807827952, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 35.929829627630944, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 35.929829627630944, "required_final_county_share_points": 35.929829627630944, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 35.929829627630944, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1442.7665900513427, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 35.929829627630944, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 35.929829627630944, "required_final_county_share_points": 35.929829627630944, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 35.929829627630944, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 36.67768764353921, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 36.67768764353921, "required_final_county_share_points": 36.67768764353921, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.159018308558073, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999906, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 37.42710211756107, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 37.42710211756107, "required_final_county_share_points": 37.42710211756107, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.213613509684069, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.999999999999993, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -32.06791881980299, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "WELL BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.031468450589984986, "criticality_score": 0.0009813062945186262, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 74.22556232616436, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 74.22556232616436, "feasible": true, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 135.1387090812213, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 166.9790902460706, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } } } }, { "cid": "fips:26065", "county": "Ingham", "fips": "26065", "reporting": 34.23, "current_votes": 18881, "current_candidate_votes": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 12359, "Haley Stevens": 5816, "Mallory McMorrow": 706 }, "current_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 65.45733806472114, "Haley Stevens": 30.8034532069276, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.7392087283512523 }, "estimated_remaining_votes": 38632.62316125496, "estimated_final_votes": 57513.62316125496, "turnout_disagreement_votes": 0.0, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 58.788481646433965, "Haley Stevens": 37.46941742968788, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.742100923878158 }, "remaining_sources": [ { "model": "v3", "remaining_votes": 38632.62316125496, "weight": 0.1342208488636769 }, { "model": "histgeo", "remaining_votes": 38632.62316125496, "weight": 0.05994207394479305 }, { "model": "latent", "remaining_votes": 38632.62316125496, "weight": 0.07672787409296966 }, { "model": "batchbias", "remaining_votes": 38632.62316125496, "weight": 0.045123489075924846 } ], "share_sources": [ { "model": "v0", "weight": 0.03630604611298715, "source": "statewide raw" }, { "model": "v1", "weight": 0.14599140026529184, "source": "county live" }, { "model": "v3", "weight": 0.15004242351696637, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "market", "weight": 0.0786646379365536, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "histgeo", "weight": 0.06573339512824654, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "latent", "weight": 0.08483492578364633, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "batchbias", "weight": 0.04883898267529022, "source": "county remaining" } ], "candidate_benchmarks": { "Abdul El-Sayed": { "opponent": "Haley Stevens", "expected_remaining_share_points": 58.788481646433965, "expected_final_county_share_points": 60.97778343464934, "current_county_share_points": 65.45733806472114, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 57.60702941012321, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 57.60702941012321, "required_final_county_share_points": 60.18418712616352, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 57.60702941012321, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": -0.9739812433198602, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": false }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 57.60702941012321, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 57.60702941012321, "required_final_county_share_points": 60.18418712616352, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 57.60702941012321, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 58.23680794169639, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 58.23680794169639, "required_final_county_share_points": 60.607217277074035, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.024044322225107804, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999973, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 58.863049687974744, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 58.863049687974744, "required_final_county_share_points": 61.02787172487304, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.003259695682198218, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.9999999999999996, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": 1.1814522363107542, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "ABOVE", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.031468450589984986, "criticality_score": 0.02663539804897193, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -11.575169871902446, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 49.33797688315452, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 49.33797688315452, "feasible": true, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 81.1783580480038, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 81.1783580480038, "feasible": true, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false } } }, "Haley Stevens": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 37.46941742968788, "expected_final_county_share_points": 35.28106511293235, "current_county_share_points": 30.8034532069276, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 38.650869665998634, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 38.650869665998634, "required_final_county_share_points": 36.074661421418156, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 38.650869665998634, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 97.2318803194417, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 38.650869665998634, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 38.650869665998634, "required_final_county_share_points": 36.074661421418156, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 38.650869665998634, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 39.28420873044954, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 39.28420873044954, "required_final_county_share_points": 36.50008322698989, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.07865391656842785, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.999999999999999, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 39.921132262353645, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 39.921132262353645, "required_final_county_share_points": 36.92791276437788, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.10597932088248406, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -1.1814522363107542, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.031468450589984986, "criticality_score": 0.02663539804897193, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 107.83306894802429, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 168.74621570308125, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 200.58659686793055, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Mallory McMorrow": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 3.742100923878158, "expected_final_county_share_points": 3.7411514524183196, "current_county_share_points": 3.7392087283512523, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 36.696095482698844, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 36.696095482698844, "required_final_county_share_points": 25.87676356434333, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 36.696095482698844, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1442.6467801673932, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 36.696095482698844, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 36.696095482698844, "required_final_county_share_points": 25.87676356434333, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 36.696095482698844, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 37.50716003370873, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 37.50716003370873, "required_final_county_share_points": 26.421565811817203, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.159018308558073, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999906, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 38.32196796166269, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 38.32196796166269, "required_final_county_share_points": 26.968882532608575, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.213613509684069, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.999999999999993, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -32.95399455882069, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "WELL BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.031468450589984986, "criticality_score": 0.0009549206708102077, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 74.10575244221457, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 74.10575244221457, "feasible": true, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 135.0188991972715, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 166.8592803621208, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } } } }, { "cid": "fips:26161", "county": "Washtenaw", "fips": "26161", "reporting": 64.95, "current_votes": 58927, "current_candidate_votes": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 37769, "Haley Stevens": 19283, "Mallory McMorrow": 1875 }, "current_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 64.0945576730531, "Haley Stevens": 32.72353929438118, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.1819030325657165 }, "estimated_remaining_votes": 36375.12128089261, "estimated_final_votes": 95302.1212808926, "turnout_disagreement_votes": 0.0, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 59.70931040800656, "Haley Stevens": 36.93183416316839, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.358855428825059 }, "remaining_sources": [ { "model": "v3", "remaining_votes": 36375.12128089261, "weight": 0.1342208488636769 }, { "model": "histgeo", "remaining_votes": 36375.12128089261, "weight": 0.05994207394479305 }, { "model": "latent", "remaining_votes": 36375.12128089261, "weight": 0.07672787409296966 }, { "model": "batchbias", "remaining_votes": 36375.12128089261, "weight": 0.045123489075924846 } ], "share_sources": [ { "model": "v0", "weight": 0.03630604611298715, "source": "statewide raw" }, { "model": "v1", "weight": 0.14599140026529184, "source": "county live" }, { "model": "v3", "weight": 0.15004242351696637, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "market", "weight": 0.0786646379365536, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "histgeo", "weight": 0.06573339512824654, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "latent", "weight": 0.08483492578364633, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "batchbias", "weight": 0.04883898267529022, "source": "county remaining" } ], "candidate_benchmarks": { "Abdul El-Sayed": { "opponent": "Haley Stevens", "expected_remaining_share_points": 59.70931040800656, "expected_final_county_share_points": 62.420786942991164, "current_county_share_points": 64.0945576730531, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 58.53082666603289, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 58.53082666603289, "required_final_county_share_points": 61.970980700845665, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 58.53082666603289, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": -3.7621125511002274, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": false }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 58.53082666603289, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 58.53082666603289, "required_final_county_share_points": 61.970980700845665, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 58.53082666603289, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 59.1591304661044, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 59.1591304661044, "required_final_county_share_points": 62.210793064113915, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.024044322225107804, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999973, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 59.78366208045847, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 59.78366208045847, "required_final_county_share_points": 62.44916565131922, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.003259695682198218, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.9999999999999996, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": 1.1784837419736718, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "ABOVE", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.029629587976839223, "criticality_score": 0.02514212705829689, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -15.021228972645943, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 49.67229124911234, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 49.67229124911234, "feasible": true, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 83.48874061167396, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 83.48874061167396, "feasible": true, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false } } }, "Haley Stevens": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 36.93183416316839, "expected_final_county_share_points": 34.3297704483207, "current_county_share_points": 32.72353929438118, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 38.110317905142054, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 38.110317905142054, "required_final_county_share_points": 34.7795766904662, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 38.110317905142054, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 100.40325712227518, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 38.110317905142054, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 38.110317905142054, "required_final_county_share_points": 34.7795766904662, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 38.110317905142054, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 38.74242188266314, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 38.74242188266314, "required_final_county_share_points": 35.020839513742665, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.07865391656842785, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.999999999999999, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 39.378354281914575, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 39.378354281914575, "required_final_county_share_points": 35.26356357736597, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.10597932088248406, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -1.1784837419736647, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.029629587976839223, "criticality_score": 0.02514212705829704, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 111.66237354382089, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 176.35589376557917, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 210.1723431281408, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Mallory McMorrow": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 3.358855428825059, "expected_final_county_share_points": 3.2494426086881285, "current_county_share_points": 3.1819030325657165, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 35.10368748023869, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 35.10368748023869, "required_final_county_share_points": 15.365879267094925, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 35.10368748023869, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1531.5644058356409, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 35.10368748023869, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 35.10368748023869, "required_final_county_share_points": 15.365879267094925, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 35.10368748023869, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 35.937715925702456, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 35.937715925702456, "required_final_county_share_points": 15.684213061219415, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.159018308558073, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999906, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 36.77832079129234, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 36.77832079129234, "required_final_county_share_points": 16.00505695770539, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.213613509684069, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.999999999999993, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -31.74483205141363, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "WELL BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.029629587976839223, "criticality_score": 0.0009333672935755786, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 78.08939480947757, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 78.08939480947757, "feasible": true, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 142.78291503123583, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 176.59936439379746, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } } } }, { "cid": "26161", "county": "26161", "fips": null, "reporting": 0.0, "current_votes": 0, "current_candidate_votes": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 0, "Haley Stevens": 0, "Mallory McMorrow": 0 }, "current_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": null, "Haley Stevens": null, "Mallory McMorrow": null }, "estimated_remaining_votes": 36375.12128089261, "estimated_final_votes": 36375.12128089261, "turnout_disagreement_votes": 0.0, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 55.250256384218766, "Haley Stevens": 41.28135115729634, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.4683924584848826 }, "remaining_sources": [ { "model": "market", "remaining_votes": 36375.12128089261, "weight": 0.1780093144963334 } ], "share_sources": [ { "model": "v0", "weight": 0.03630604611298715, "source": "statewide raw" }, { "model": "v3", "weight": 0.06301781787712588, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "market", "weight": 0.18729675699179427, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "histgeo", "weight": 0.02760802595386354, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "latent", "weight": 0.03563066882913146, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "batchbias", "weight": 0.020512372723621893, "source": "statewide fallback" } ], "candidate_benchmarks": { "Abdul El-Sayed": { "opponent": "Haley Stevens", "expected_remaining_share_points": 55.250256384218766, "expected_final_county_share_points": 55.250256384218766, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 54.03283138290259, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 54.03283138290259, "required_final_county_share_points": 54.03283138290259, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 54.03283138290259, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": -8.22116657488804, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": false }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 54.03283138290259, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 54.03283138290259, "required_final_county_share_points": 54.03283138290259, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 54.03283138290259, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 54.6811853966236, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 54.6811853966236, "required_final_county_share_points": 54.6811853966236, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.024044322225107804, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999973, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 55.32725677303125, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 55.32725677303125, "required_final_county_share_points": 55.32725677303125, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.003259695682198218, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.9999999999999996, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": 1.2174250013161725, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "ABOVE", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.029629587976839223, "criticality_score": 0.024337916458760357, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -19.480282996433736, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 45.21323722532455, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 45.21323722532455, "feasible": true, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 79.02968658788618, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 79.02968658788618, "feasible": true, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false } } }, "Haley Stevens": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 41.28135115729634, "expected_final_county_share_points": 41.28135115729634, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 42.498776158612515, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 42.498776158612515, "required_final_county_share_points": 42.498776158612515, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 42.498776158612515, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 104.75277411640316, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 42.498776158612515, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 42.498776158612515, "required_final_county_share_points": 42.498776158612515, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 42.498776158612515, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 43.14941846403302, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 43.14941846403302, "required_final_county_share_points": 43.14941846403302, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.07865391656842785, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.999999999999999, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 43.802354698439075, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 43.802354698439075, "required_final_county_share_points": 43.802354698439075, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.10597932088248406, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -1.2174250013161725, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.029629587976839223, "criticality_score": 0.024337916458760357, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 116.01189053794884, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 180.70541075970712, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 214.52186012226875, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Mallory McMorrow": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 3.4683924584848826, "expected_final_county_share_points": 3.4683924584848826, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 34.26117635214319, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 34.26117635214319, "required_final_county_share_points": 34.26117635214319, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 34.26117635214319, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1531.6739428653004, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 34.26117635214319, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 34.26117635214319, "required_final_county_share_points": 34.26117635214319, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 34.26117635214319, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 35.02473832137051, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 35.02473832137051, "required_final_county_share_points": 35.02473832137051, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.159018308558073, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999906, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 35.79210175411999, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 35.79210175411999, "required_final_county_share_points": 35.79210175411999, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.213613509684069, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.999999999999993, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -30.792783893658306, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "WELL BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.029629587976839223, "criticality_score": 0.0009622250485426671, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 78.19893183913739, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 78.19893183913739, "feasible": true, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 142.89245206089566, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 176.7089014234573, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } } } }, { "cid": "26121", "county": "26121", "fips": null, "reporting": 0.0, "current_votes": 0, "current_candidate_votes": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 0, "Haley Stevens": 0, "Mallory McMorrow": 0 }, "current_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": null, "Haley Stevens": null, "Mallory McMorrow": null }, "estimated_remaining_votes": 24944.417489173677, "estimated_final_votes": 24944.417489173677, "turnout_disagreement_votes": 0.0, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 51.520003701578986, "Haley Stevens": 44.646485246666586, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.8335110517544244 }, "remaining_sources": [ { "model": "market", "remaining_votes": 24944.417489173677, "weight": 0.1780093144963334 } ], "share_sources": [ { "model": "v0", "weight": 0.03630604611298715, "source": "statewide raw" }, { "model": "v3", "weight": 0.06301781787712588, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "market", "weight": 0.18729675699179427, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "histgeo", "weight": 0.02760802595386354, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "latent", "weight": 0.03563066882913146, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "batchbias", "weight": 0.020512372723621893, "source": "statewide fallback" } ], "candidate_benchmarks": { "Abdul El-Sayed": { "opponent": "Haley Stevens", "expected_remaining_share_points": 51.520003701578986, "expected_final_county_share_points": 51.520003701578986, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 50.28989257017238, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 50.28989257017238, "required_final_county_share_points": 50.28989257017238, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 50.28989257017238, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": -41.03700665997362, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": false }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 50.28989257017238, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 50.28989257017238, "required_final_county_share_points": 50.28989257017238, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 50.28989257017238, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 50.944425492966886, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 50.944425492966886, "required_final_county_share_points": 50.944425492966886, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.024044322225107804, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999973, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 51.59796256226642, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 51.59796256226642, "required_final_county_share_points": 51.59796256226642, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.003259695682198218, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.9999999999999996, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": 1.230111131406609, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "ABOVE", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.02031863500382924, "criticality_score": 0.01651772306181415, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -57.45557909315096, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 36.88355090159362, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 36.88355090159362, "feasible": true, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 86.1962858005432, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 86.1962858005432, "feasible": true, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false } } }, "Haley Stevens": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 44.646485246666586, "expected_final_county_share_points": 44.64648524666659, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 45.876596378073195, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 45.876596378073195, "required_final_county_share_points": 45.876596378073195, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 45.876596378073195, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 137.20349560821919, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 45.876596378073195, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 45.876596378073195, "required_final_county_share_points": 45.876596378073195, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 45.876596378073195, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 46.53212092613422, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 46.53212092613422, "required_final_county_share_points": 46.53212092613422, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.07865391656842785, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.999999999999999, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 47.18863282712712, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 47.18863282712712, "required_final_county_share_points": 47.18863282712712, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.10597932088248406, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -1.230111131406609, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.02031863500382924, "criticality_score": 0.01651772306181415, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 153.62206804139652, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 247.96119803614107, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 297.27393293509067, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Mallory McMorrow": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 3.8335110517544244, "expected_final_county_share_points": 3.833511051754424, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 34.54719716022258, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 34.54719716022258, "required_final_county_share_points": 34.54719716022258, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 34.54719716022258, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 2232.334628077543, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 34.54719716022258, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 34.54719716022258, "required_final_county_share_points": 34.54719716022258, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 34.54719716022258, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 35.24050484242717, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 35.24050484242717, "required_final_county_share_points": 35.240504842427164, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.159018308558073, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999906, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 35.93423972785248, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 35.93423972785248, "required_final_county_share_points": 35.93423972785248, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.213613509684069, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.999999999999993, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -30.713686108468156, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "WELL BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.02031863500382924, "criticality_score": 0.0006615498684225705, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 112.80909384648437, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 207.1482238412289, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 256.4609587401785, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } } } }, { "cid": "fips:26121", "county": "Muskegon", "fips": "26121", "reporting": 0.0, "current_votes": 0, "current_candidate_votes": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 0, "Haley Stevens": 0, "Mallory McMorrow": 0 }, "current_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": null, "Haley Stevens": null, "Mallory McMorrow": null }, "estimated_remaining_votes": 24944.417489173677, "estimated_final_votes": 24944.417489173677, "turnout_disagreement_votes": 0.0, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 49.30414521844237, "Haley Stevens": 46.83807110573469, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.8577836758229345 }, "remaining_sources": [ { "model": "v3", "remaining_votes": 24944.417489173677, "weight": 0.1342208488636769 }, { "model": "histgeo", "remaining_votes": 24944.417489173677, "weight": 0.05994207394479305 }, { "model": "latent", "remaining_votes": 24944.417489173677, "weight": 0.07672787409296966 }, { "model": "batchbias", "remaining_votes": 24944.417489173677, "weight": 0.045123489075924846 } ], "share_sources": [ { "model": "v0", "weight": 0.03630604611298715, "source": "statewide raw" }, { "model": "v3", "weight": 0.15004242351696637, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "market", "weight": 0.0786646379365536, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "histgeo", "weight": 0.06573339512824654, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "latent", "weight": 0.08483492578364633, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "batchbias", "weight": 0.04883898267529022, "source": "county remaining" } ], "candidate_benchmarks": { "Abdul El-Sayed": { "opponent": "Haley Stevens", "expected_remaining_share_points": 49.30414521844237, "expected_final_county_share_points": 49.304145218442365, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.07029682055077, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.07029682055077, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.07029682055077, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 48.07029682055077, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": -43.252865143110256, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": false }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.07029682055077, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.07029682055077, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.07029682055077, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 48.07029682055077, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.72645653346215, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.72645653346215, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.72645653346215, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.024044322225107804, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999973, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 49.38243891942384, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 49.38243891942384, "required_final_county_share_points": 49.38243891942384, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.003259695682198218, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.9999999999999996, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": 1.2338483978915988, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "ABOVE", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.02031863500382924, "criticality_score": 0.016467691686069163, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -59.67143757628757, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 34.66769241845701, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 34.66769241845701, "feasible": true, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 83.98042731740657, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 83.98042731740657, "feasible": true, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false } } }, "Haley Stevens": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 46.83807110573469, "expected_final_county_share_points": 46.83807110573469, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.07191950362628, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.07191950362628, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.07191950362628, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 48.07191950362628, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 139.3950814672873, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.07191950362628, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.07191950362628, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.07191950362628, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 48.07191950362628, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.728250105311396, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.728250105311396, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.728250105311396, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.07865391656842785, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.999999999999999, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 49.38474513927121, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 49.38474513927121, "required_final_county_share_points": 49.38474513927121, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.10597932088248406, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -1.2338483978915917, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.02031863500382924, "criticality_score": 0.01646769168606926, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 155.81365390046463, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 250.15278389520918, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 299.4655187941588, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Mallory McMorrow": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 3.8577836758229345, "expected_final_county_share_points": 3.8577836758229345, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 33.80235596161166, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 33.80235596161166, "required_final_county_share_points": 33.80235596161166, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 33.80235596161166, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 2232.358900701611, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 33.80235596161166, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 33.80235596161166, "required_final_county_share_points": 33.80235596161166, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 33.80235596161166, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 34.459156584430986, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 34.459156584430986, "required_final_county_share_points": 34.459156584430986, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.159018308558073, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999906, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 35.11554033322278, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 35.11554033322278, "required_final_county_share_points": 35.11554033322278, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.213613509684069, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.999999999999993, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -29.944572285788727, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "WELL BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.02031863500382924, "criticality_score": 0.0006785415002728952, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 112.83336647055287, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 207.17249646529743, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 256.48523136424706, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } } } }, { "cid": "26145", "county": "26145", "fips": null, "reporting": 0.0, "current_votes": 0, "current_candidate_votes": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 0, "Haley Stevens": 0, "Mallory McMorrow": 0 }, "current_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": null, "Haley Stevens": null, "Mallory McMorrow": null }, "estimated_remaining_votes": 24686.364928707186, "estimated_final_votes": 24686.364928707186, "turnout_disagreement_votes": 0.0, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 47.3164798825988, "Haley Stevens": 48.541891474829086, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.141628642572111 }, "remaining_sources": [ { "model": "market", "remaining_votes": 24686.364928707186, "weight": 0.1780093144963334 } ], "share_sources": [ { "model": "v0", "weight": 0.03630604611298715, "source": "statewide raw" }, { "model": "v3", "weight": 0.06301781787712588, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "market", "weight": 0.18729675699179427, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "histgeo", "weight": 0.02760802595386354, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "latent", "weight": 0.03563066882913146, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "batchbias", "weight": 0.020512372723621893, "source": "statewide fallback" } ], "candidate_benchmarks": { "Abdul El-Sayed": { "opponent": "Haley Stevens", "expected_remaining_share_points": 47.3164798825988, "expected_final_county_share_points": 47.3164798825988, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 46.08687925613225, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 46.08687925613225, "required_final_county_share_points": 46.08687925613225, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 46.08687925613225, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": -46.20805135867433, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": false }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 46.08687925613225, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 46.08687925613225, "required_final_county_share_points": 46.08687925613225, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 46.08687925613225, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 46.740477928228145, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 46.740477928228145, "required_final_county_share_points": 46.740477928228145, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.024044322225107804, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999973, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 47.39458595471629, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 47.39458595471629, "required_final_county_share_points": 47.39458595471629, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.003259695682198218, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.9999999999999996, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": 1.2296006264665493, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "ABOVE", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.020108436638195008, "criticality_score": 0.016353632395243456, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -62.79825111194597, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 32.527028691311564, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 32.527028691311564, "feasible": true, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 82.35524156934105, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 82.35524156934105, "feasible": true, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false } } }, "Haley Stevens": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 48.541891474829086, "expected_final_county_share_points": 48.54189147482909, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 49.77149210129564, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 49.77149210129564, "required_final_county_share_points": 49.77149210129564, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 49.77149210129564, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 142.0664227161022, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 49.77149210129564, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 49.77149210129564, "required_final_county_share_points": 49.77149210129564, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 49.77149210129564, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 50.424575539235505, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 50.424575539235505, "required_final_county_share_points": 50.424575539235505, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.07865391656842785, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.999999999999999, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 51.077137871230214, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 51.077137871230214, "required_final_county_share_points": 51.077137871230214, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.10597932088248406, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -1.2296006264665564, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.020108436638195008, "criticality_score": 0.01635363239524336, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 158.65662246937387, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 253.98190227263137, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 303.81011515066086, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Mallory McMorrow": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 4.141628642572111, "expected_final_county_share_points": 4.141628642572111, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 34.033815887345995, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 34.033815887345995, "required_final_county_share_points": 34.033815887345995, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 34.033815887345995, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 2255.9378083846295, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 34.033815887345995, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 34.033815887345995, "required_final_county_share_points": 34.033815887345995, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 34.033815887345995, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 34.64787734773098, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 34.64787734773098, "required_final_county_share_points": 34.64787734773098, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.159018308558073, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999906, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 35.25988086202239, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 35.25988086202239, "required_final_county_share_points": 35.25988086202239, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.213613509684069, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.999999999999993, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -29.892187244773883, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "WELL BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.020108436638195008, "criticality_score": 0.0006726987380861737, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 114.25635963711689, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 209.58163944037437, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 259.4098523184039, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } } } }, { "cid": "fips:26145", "county": "Saginaw", "fips": "26145", "reporting": 16.6, "current_votes": 4432, "current_candidate_votes": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 1944, "Haley Stevens": 2277, "Mallory McMorrow": 211 }, "current_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 43.86281588447653, "Haley Stevens": 51.37635379061371, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.760830324909747 }, "estimated_remaining_votes": 24686.364928707186, "estimated_final_votes": 29118.364928707186, "turnout_disagreement_votes": 0.0, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 46.635453647741876, "Haley Stevens": 49.07054608614816, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.294000266109956 }, "remaining_sources": [ { "model": "v3", "remaining_votes": 24686.364928707186, "weight": 0.1342208488636769 }, { "model": "histgeo", "remaining_votes": 24686.364928707186, "weight": 0.05994207394479305 }, { "model": "latent", "remaining_votes": 24686.364928707186, "weight": 0.07672787409296966 }, { "model": "batchbias", "remaining_votes": 24686.364928707186, "weight": 0.045123489075924846 } ], "share_sources": [ { "model": "v0", "weight": 0.03630604611298715, "source": "statewide raw" }, { "model": "v1", "weight": 0.14599140026529184, "source": "county live" }, { "model": "v3", "weight": 0.15004242351696637, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "market", "weight": 0.0786646379365536, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "histgeo", "weight": 0.06573339512824654, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "latent", "weight": 0.08483492578364633, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "batchbias", "weight": 0.04883898267529022, "source": "county remaining" } ], "candidate_benchmarks": { "Abdul El-Sayed": { "opponent": "Haley Stevens", "expected_remaining_share_points": 46.635453647741876, "expected_final_county_share_points": 46.21344057809053, "current_county_share_points": 43.86281588447653, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 45.408800211700914, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 45.408800211700914, "required_final_county_share_points": 45.17349158242059, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 45.408800211700914, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": -46.88907759353095, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": false }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 45.408800211700914, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 45.408800211700914, "required_final_county_share_points": 45.17349158242059, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 45.408800211700914, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 46.06073309027297, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 46.06073309027297, "required_final_county_share_points": 45.72619613808009, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.024044322225107804, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999973, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 46.71339942917931, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 46.71339942917931, "required_final_county_share_points": 46.279522516754625, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.003259695682198218, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.9999999999999996, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": 1.2266534360409622, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "ABOVE", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.020108436638195008, "criticality_score": 0.016392924070791515, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -63.479277346802895, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 31.84600245645464, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 31.84600245645464, "feasible": true, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 81.67421533448413, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 81.67421533448413, "feasible": true, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false } } }, "Haley Stevens": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 49.07054608614816, "expected_final_county_share_points": 49.42150465718099, "current_county_share_points": 51.37635379061371, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 50.29719952218914, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 50.29719952218914, "required_final_county_share_points": 50.46145365285094, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 50.29719952218914, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 142.595077327421, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 50.29719952218914, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 50.29719952218914, "required_final_county_share_points": 50.46145365285094, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 50.29719952218914, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 50.948393721474886, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 50.948393721474886, "required_final_county_share_points": 51.013531960901005, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.07865391656842785, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.999999999999999, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 51.59884403751327, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 51.59884403751327, "required_final_county_share_points": 51.56497960945651, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.10597932088248406, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -1.2266534360409764, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.020108436638195008, "criticality_score": 0.016392924070791324, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 159.18527708069294, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 254.51055688395044, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 304.33876976197996, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Mallory McMorrow": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 4.294000266109956, "expected_final_county_share_points": 4.3650547647284865, "current_county_share_points": 4.760830324909747, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 34.25681460170472, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 34.25681460170472, "required_final_county_share_points": 29.767338539610478, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 34.25681460170472, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 2256.090180008168, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 34.25681460170472, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 34.25681460170472, "required_final_county_share_points": 29.767338539610478, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 34.25681460170472, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 34.854017700893344, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 34.854017700893344, "required_final_county_share_points": 30.273643535760552, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.159018308558073, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999906, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 35.44850819991381, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 35.44850819991381, "required_final_county_share_points": 30.777648806708978, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.213613509684069, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.999999999999993, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -29.962814335594764, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "WELL BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.020108436638195008, "criticality_score": 0.0006711130807998531, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 114.40873126065473, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 209.73401106391222, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 259.56222394194174, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } } } }, { "cid": "fips:26017", "county": "Bay", "fips": "26017", "reporting": 5.77, "current_votes": 926, "current_candidate_votes": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 448, "Haley Stevens": 432, "Mallory McMorrow": 46 }, "current_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 48.38012958963283, "Haley Stevens": 46.652267818574515, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.967602591792657 }, "estimated_remaining_votes": 15508.356874900292, "estimated_final_votes": 16434.35687490029, "turnout_disagreement_votes": 0.0, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 48.94823120464311, "Haley Stevens": 46.78114167917028, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.2706271161866125 }, "remaining_sources": [ { "model": "v3", "remaining_votes": 15508.356874900292, "weight": 0.1342208488636769 }, { "model": "histgeo", "remaining_votes": 15508.356874900292, "weight": 0.05994207394479305 }, { "model": "latent", "remaining_votes": 15508.356874900292, "weight": 0.07672787409296966 }, { "model": "batchbias", "remaining_votes": 15508.356874900292, "weight": 0.045123489075924846 } ], "share_sources": [ { "model": "v0", "weight": 0.03630604611298715, "source": "statewide raw" }, { "model": "v1", "weight": 0.14599140026529184, "source": "county live" }, { "model": "v3", "weight": 0.15004242351696637, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "market", "weight": 0.0786646379365536, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "histgeo", "weight": 0.06573339512824654, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "latent", "weight": 0.08483492578364633, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "batchbias", "weight": 0.04883898267529022, "source": "county remaining" } ], "candidate_benchmarks": { "Abdul El-Sayed": { "opponent": "Haley Stevens", "expected_remaining_share_points": 48.94823120464311, "expected_final_county_share_points": 48.916221306141814, "current_county_share_points": 48.38012958963283, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 47.7195972929087, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 47.7195972929087, "required_final_county_share_points": 47.756815232827044, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 47.7195972929087, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": -99.9250973260551, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": false }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 47.7195972929087, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 47.7195972929087, "required_final_county_share_points": 47.756815232827044, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 47.7195972929087, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.3729602760429, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.3729602760429, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.37336423370518, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.024044322225107804, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999973, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 49.026200436303476, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 49.026200436303476, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.98979733221056, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.003259695682198218, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.9999999999999996, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": 1.2286339117344056, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "ABOVE", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.01263243140422051, "criticality_score": 0.010281688697968536, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -126.33355108122093, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 25.406227873889396, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 25.406227873889396, "feasible": true, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 104.72329910038265, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Haley Stevens": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 46.78114167917028, "expected_final_county_share_points": 46.773880233175156, "current_county_share_points": 46.652267818574515, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.00977559090469, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.00977559090469, "required_final_county_share_points": 47.93328630648994, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 48.00977559090469, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 195.6544702098685, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.00977559090469, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.00977559090469, "required_final_county_share_points": 47.93328630648994, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 48.00977559090469, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.66325495001475, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.66325495001475, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.54994512609595, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.07865391656842785, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.999999999999999, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 49.31684422207041, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 49.31684422207041, "required_final_county_share_points": 49.16670766556143, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.10597932088248406, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -1.2286339117344056, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.01263243140422051, "criticality_score": 0.010281688697968536, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 222.06292396503432, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 373.8027029201446, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 453.1197741466379, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Mallory McMorrow": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 4.2706271161866125, "expected_final_county_share_points": 4.309898460683025, "current_county_share_points": 4.967602591792657, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 35.159803189352836, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 35.159803189352836, "required_final_county_share_points": 33.45861232644538, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 35.159803189352836, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 3588.703374349994, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 35.159803189352836, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 35.159803189352836, "required_final_county_share_points": 33.45861232644538, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 35.159803189352836, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 35.79556220568631, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 35.79556220568631, "required_final_county_share_points": 34.058549262632596, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.159018308558073, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999906, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 36.42923939774374, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 36.42923939774374, "required_final_county_share_points": 34.65652167571317, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.213613509684069, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.999999999999993, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -30.889176073166222, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "WELL BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.01263243140422051, "criticality_score": 0.00040895980437608524, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 179.55240940205064, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 331.29218835716097, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 410.60925958365425, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } } } }, { "cid": "26017", "county": "26017", "fips": null, "reporting": 0.0, "current_votes": 0, "current_candidate_votes": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 0, "Haley Stevens": 0, "Mallory McMorrow": 0 }, "current_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": null, "Haley Stevens": null, "Mallory McMorrow": null }, "estimated_remaining_votes": 15508.356874900292, "estimated_final_votes": 15508.356874900292, "turnout_disagreement_votes": 0.0, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 48.09081675932247, "Haley Stevens": 47.77542810416066, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.133755136516871 }, "remaining_sources": [ { "model": "market", "remaining_votes": 15508.356874900292, "weight": 0.1780093144963334 } ], "share_sources": [ { "model": "v0", "weight": 0.03630604611298715, "source": "statewide raw" }, { "model": "v3", "weight": 0.06301781787712588, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "market", "weight": 0.18729675699179427, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "histgeo", "weight": 0.02760802595386354, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "latent", "weight": 0.03563066882913146, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "batchbias", "weight": 0.020512372723621893, "source": "statewide fallback" } ], "candidate_benchmarks": { "Abdul El-Sayed": { "opponent": "Haley Stevens", "expected_remaining_share_points": 48.09081675932247, "expected_final_county_share_points": 48.090816759322465, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 46.86042001365787, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 46.86042001365787, "required_final_county_share_points": 46.86042001365787, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 46.86042001365787, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": -100.78251177137562, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": false }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 46.86042001365787, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 46.86042001365787, "required_final_county_share_points": 46.86042001365787, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 46.86042001365787, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 47.51456824629479, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 47.51456824629479, "required_final_county_share_points": 47.51456824629479, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.024044322225107804, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999973, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.168939121809295, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.168939121809295, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.168939121809295, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.003259695682198218, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.9999999999999996, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": 1.2303967456645992, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "ABOVE", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.01263243140422051, "criticality_score": 0.01026695775060515, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -127.19096552654156, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 24.54881342856876, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 24.54881342856876, "feasible": true, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 103.86588465506202, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Haley Stevens": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 47.77542810416066, "expected_final_county_share_points": 47.77542810416066, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 49.005824849825245, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 49.005824849825245, "required_final_county_share_points": 49.005824849825245, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 49.005824849825245, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 196.64875663485876, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 49.005824849825245, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 49.005824849825245, "required_final_county_share_points": 49.005824849825245, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 49.005824849825245, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 49.6597440690023, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 49.6597440690023, "required_final_county_share_points": 49.6597440690023, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.07865391656842785, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.999999999999999, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 50.313427901612286, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 50.313427901612286, "required_final_county_share_points": 50.313427901612286, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.10597932088248406, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -1.230396745664585, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.01263243140422051, "criticality_score": 0.010266957750605269, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 223.0572103900247, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 374.796989345135, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 454.1140605716283, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Mallory McMorrow": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 4.133755136516871, "expected_final_county_share_points": 4.133755136516871, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 34.328019054981205, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 34.328019054981205, "required_final_county_share_points": 34.328019054981205, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 34.328019054981205, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 3588.566502370324, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 34.328019054981205, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 34.328019054981205, "required_final_county_share_points": 34.328019054981205, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 34.328019054981205, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 34.9549754989393, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 34.9549754989393, "required_final_county_share_points": 34.95497549893929, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.159018308558073, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999906, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 35.58010168604368, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 35.58010168604368, "required_final_county_share_points": 35.58010168604368, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.213613509684069, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.999999999999993, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -30.194263918464333, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "WELL BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.01263243140422051, "criticality_score": 0.00041837189468611465, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 179.4155374223809, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 331.1553163774912, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 410.4723876039845, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } } } }, { "cid": "26075", "county": "26075", "fips": null, "reporting": 0.0, "current_votes": 0, "current_candidate_votes": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 0, "Haley Stevens": 0, "Mallory McMorrow": 0 }, "current_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": null, "Haley Stevens": null, "Mallory McMorrow": null }, "estimated_remaining_votes": 15316.60702633344, "estimated_final_votes": 15316.60702633344, "turnout_disagreement_votes": 0.0, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 50.606605283895725, "Haley Stevens": 45.36304140959665, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.030353306507629 }, "remaining_sources": [ { "model": "market", "remaining_votes": 15316.60702633344, "weight": 0.1780093144963334 } ], "share_sources": [ { "model": "v0", "weight": 0.03630604611298715, "source": "statewide raw" }, { "model": "v3", "weight": 0.06301781787712588, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "market", "weight": 0.18729675699179427, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "histgeo", "weight": 0.02760802595386354, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "latent", "weight": 0.03563066882913146, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "batchbias", "weight": 0.020512372723621893, "source": "statewide fallback" } ], "candidate_benchmarks": { "Abdul El-Sayed": { "opponent": "Haley Stevens", "expected_remaining_share_points": 50.606605283895725, "expected_final_county_share_points": 50.606605283895725, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 49.376924379193724, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 49.376924379193724, "required_final_county_share_points": 49.376924379193724, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 49.376924379193724, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": -100.13048054973008, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": false }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 49.376924379193724, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 49.376924379193724, "required_final_county_share_points": 49.376924379193724, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 49.376924379193724, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 50.03109585494552, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 50.03109585494552, "required_final_county_share_points": 50.03109585494552, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.024044322225107804, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999973, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 50.68457275969681, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 50.68457275969681, "required_final_county_share_points": 50.68457275969681, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.003259695682198218, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.9999999999999996, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": 1.2296809047020005, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "ABOVE", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.01247624033715068, "criticality_score": 0.010145916952474885, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -126.86954388440233, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 26.76987769953472, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 26.76987769953472, "feasible": true, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 107.07992578900406, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Haley Stevens": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 45.36304140959665, "expected_final_county_share_points": 45.36304140959665, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 46.592722314298655, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 46.592722314298655, "required_final_county_share_points": 46.592722314298655, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 46.592722314298655, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 196.10012724322246, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 46.592722314298655, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 46.592722314298655, "required_final_county_share_points": 46.592722314298655, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 46.592722314298655, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 47.24758297092966, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 47.24758297092966, "required_final_county_share_points": 47.24758297092966, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.07865391656842785, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.999999999999999, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 47.90312738170466, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 47.90312738170466, "required_final_county_share_points": 47.90312738170466, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.10597932088248406, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -1.2296809047020076, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.01247624033715068, "criticality_score": 0.010145916952474826, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 222.83919057789473, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 376.47861216183173, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 456.7886602513011, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Mallory McMorrow": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 4.030353306507629, "expected_final_county_share_points": 4.030353306507629, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 34.96345619028115, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 34.96345619028115, "required_final_county_share_points": 34.96345619028115, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 34.96345619028115, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 3633.3369055088992, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 34.96345619028115, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 34.96345619028115, "required_final_county_share_points": 34.96345619028115, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 34.96345619028115, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 35.63504956600276, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 35.63504956600276, "required_final_county_share_points": 35.63504956600276, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.159018308558073, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999906, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 36.305924281425874, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 36.305924281425874, "required_final_county_share_points": 36.305924281425874, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.213613509684069, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.999999999999993, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -30.933102883773522, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "WELL BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.01247624033715068, "criticality_score": 0.00040332973979455847, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 181.5065024748057, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 335.1459240587427, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 415.4559721482121, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } } } }, { "cid": "fips:26075", "county": "Jackson", "fips": "26075", "reporting": 3.46, "current_votes": 581, "current_candidate_votes": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 254, "Haley Stevens": 302, "Mallory McMorrow": 25 }, "current_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 43.71772805507745, "Haley Stevens": 51.97934595524957, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.3029259896729775 }, "estimated_remaining_votes": 15316.60702633344, "estimated_final_votes": 15897.60702633344, "turnout_disagreement_votes": 0.0, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 47.36537022909766, "Haley Stevens": 48.62499020594374, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.009639564958597 }, "remaining_sources": [ { "model": "v3", "remaining_votes": 15316.60702633344, "weight": 0.1342208488636769 }, { "model": "histgeo", "remaining_votes": 15316.60702633344, "weight": 0.05994207394479305 }, { "model": "latent", "remaining_votes": 15316.60702633344, "weight": 0.07672787409296966 }, { "model": "batchbias", "remaining_votes": 15316.60702633344, "weight": 0.045123489075924846 } ], "share_sources": [ { "model": "v0", "weight": 0.03630604611298715, "source": "statewide raw" }, { "model": "v1", "weight": 0.14599140026529184, "source": "county live" }, { "model": "v3", "weight": 0.15004242351696637, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "market", "weight": 0.0786646379365536, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "histgeo", "weight": 0.06573339512824654, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "latent", "weight": 0.08483492578364633, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "batchbias", "weight": 0.04883898267529022, "source": "county remaining" } ], "candidate_benchmarks": { "Abdul El-Sayed": { "opponent": "Haley Stevens", "expected_remaining_share_points": 47.36537022909766, "expected_final_county_share_points": 47.232062109228096, "current_county_share_points": 43.71772805507745, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 46.134098056014075, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 46.134098056014075, "required_final_county_share_points": 46.04578847783551, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 46.134098056014075, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": -103.3717156045284, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": false }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 46.134098056014075, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 46.134098056014075, "required_final_county_share_points": 46.04578847783551, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 46.134098056014075, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 46.78858257956388, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 46.78858257956388, "required_final_county_share_points": 46.676353960767905, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.024044322225107804, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999973, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 47.44358320345049, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 47.44358320345049, "required_final_county_share_points": 47.30741668243767, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.003259695682198218, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.9999999999999996, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": 1.2312721730835818, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "ABOVE", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.01247624033715068, "criticality_score": 0.010132804598276065, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -130.1107789392004, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 23.528642644736653, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 23.528642644736653, "feasible": true, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 103.838690734206, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Haley Stevens": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 48.62499020594374, "expected_final_county_share_points": 48.74757976845579, "current_county_share_points": 51.97934595524957, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 49.856262379027314, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 49.856262379027314, "required_final_county_share_points": 49.933853399848374, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 49.856262379027314, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 199.36207603956979, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 49.856262379027314, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 49.856262379027314, "required_final_county_share_points": 49.933853399848374, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 49.856262379027314, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 50.51022492881373, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 50.51022492881373, "required_final_county_share_points": 50.56391598526929, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.07865391656842785, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.999999999999999, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 51.163659639601335, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 51.163659639601335, "required_final_county_share_points": 51.19347002229645, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.10597932088248406, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -1.2312721730835747, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.01247624033715068, "criticality_score": 0.010132804598276124, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 226.1011393742418, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 379.74056095817883, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 460.0506090476482, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Mallory McMorrow": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 4.009639564958597, "expected_final_county_share_points": 4.020358122316116, "current_county_share_points": 4.3029259896729775, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 33.592282874341414, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 33.592282874341414, "required_final_county_share_points": 32.52186288460305, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 33.592282874341414, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 3633.3161917673506, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 33.592282874341414, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 33.592282874341414, "required_final_county_share_points": 32.52186288460305, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 33.592282874341414, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 34.21209487299835, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 34.21209487299835, "required_final_county_share_points": 33.11902299794019, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.159018308558073, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999906, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 34.830324568074964, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 34.830324568074964, "required_final_county_share_points": 33.71465863516618, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.213613509684069, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.999999999999993, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -29.582643309382817, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "WELL BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.01247624033715068, "criticality_score": 0.0004217419047605375, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 181.48578873325667, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 335.1252103171937, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 415.4352584066631, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } } } }, { "cid": "fips:26021", "county": "Berrien", "fips": "26021", "reporting": 9.46, "current_votes": 1294, "current_candidate_votes": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 756, "Haley Stevens": 463, "Mallory McMorrow": 75 }, "current_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 58.42349304482226, "Haley Stevens": 35.7805255023184, "Mallory McMorrow": 5.795981452859351 }, "estimated_remaining_votes": 15056.65577827919, "estimated_final_votes": 16350.65577827919, "turnout_disagreement_votes": 0.0, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 53.085371165674864, "Haley Stevens": 42.26469102741573, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.649937806909396 }, "remaining_sources": [ { "model": "v3", "remaining_votes": 15056.65577827919, "weight": 0.1342208488636769 }, { "model": "histgeo", "remaining_votes": 15056.65577827919, "weight": 0.05994207394479305 }, { "model": "latent", "remaining_votes": 15056.65577827919, "weight": 0.07672787409296966 }, { "model": "batchbias", "remaining_votes": 15056.65577827919, "weight": 0.045123489075924846 } ], "share_sources": [ { "model": "v0", "weight": 0.03630604611298715, "source": "statewide raw" }, { "model": "v1", "weight": 0.14599140026529184, "source": "county live" }, { "model": "v3", "weight": 0.15004242351696637, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "market", "weight": 0.0786646379365536, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "histgeo", "weight": 0.06573339512824654, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "latent", "weight": 0.08483492578364633, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "batchbias", "weight": 0.04883898267529022, "source": "county remaining" } ], "candidate_benchmarks": { "Abdul El-Sayed": { "opponent": "Haley Stevens", "expected_remaining_share_points": 53.085371165674864, "expected_final_county_share_points": 53.507833102693496, "current_county_share_points": 58.42349304482226, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 51.87392000209867, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 51.87392000209867, "required_final_county_share_points": 52.39225685856549, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 51.87392000209867, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": -100.25417129361414, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": false }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 51.87392000209867, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 51.87392000209867, "required_final_county_share_points": 52.39225685856549, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 51.87392000209867, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 52.5188500712964, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 52.5188500712964, "required_final_county_share_points": 52.986146803082065, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.024044322225107804, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999973, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 53.162059256950315, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 53.162059256950315, "required_final_county_share_points": 53.57845205573645, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.003259695682198218, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.9999999999999996, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": 1.2114511635761929, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "ABOVE", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.012264495383383103, "criticality_score": 0.010123805029976136, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -127.45488115776845, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 28.837105509624475, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 28.837105509624475, "feasible": true, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 110.53369637058172, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Haley Stevens": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 42.26469102741573, "expected_final_county_share_points": 41.7515305583034, "current_county_share_points": 35.7805255023184, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 43.476142190991936, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 43.476142190991936, "required_final_county_share_points": 42.867106802431415, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 43.476142190991936, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 195.60423348670471, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 43.476142190991936, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 43.476142190991936, "required_final_county_share_points": 42.867106802431415, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 43.476142190991936, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 44.12279363742372, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 44.12279363742372, "required_final_county_share_points": 43.46258189342953, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.07865391656842785, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.999999999999999, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 44.771166911734745, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 44.771166911734745, "required_final_county_share_points": 44.059642545890064, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.10597932088248406, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -1.211451163576207, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.012264495383383103, "criticality_score": 0.010123805029976016, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 222.80494335085905, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 379.09693001825195, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 460.79352087920927, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Mallory McMorrow": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 4.649937806909396, "expected_final_county_share_points": 4.740636339003092, "current_county_share_points": 5.795981452859351, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 38.19482019241035, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 38.19482019241035, "required_final_county_share_points": 35.63075805952192, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 38.19482019241035, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 3696.616006286317, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 38.19482019241035, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 38.19482019241035, "required_final_county_share_points": 35.63075805952192, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 38.19482019241035, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 38.88362237610174, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 38.88362237610174, "required_final_county_share_points": 36.26504805496943, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.159018308558073, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999906, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 39.57010432212596, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 39.57010432212596, "required_final_county_share_points": 36.89720143765031, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.213613509684069, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.999999999999993, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -33.544882385500955, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "WELL BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.012264495383383103, "criticality_score": 0.0003656144994768014, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 185.19019013035273, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 341.48217679774564, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 423.17876765870295, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } } } }, { "cid": "26021", "county": "26021", "fips": null, "reporting": 0.0, "current_votes": 0, "current_candidate_votes": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 0, "Haley Stevens": 0, "Mallory McMorrow": 0 }, "current_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": null, "Haley Stevens": null, "Mallory McMorrow": null }, "estimated_remaining_votes": 15056.655778279188, "estimated_final_votes": 15056.655778279188, "turnout_disagreement_votes": 1.8189894035458565e-12, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 50.64093249871947, "Haley Stevens": 44.4879633172606, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.871104184019935 }, "remaining_sources": [ { "model": "market", "remaining_votes": 15056.65577827919, "weight": 0.1780093144963334 } ], "share_sources": [ { "model": "v0", "weight": 0.03630604611298715, "source": "statewide raw" }, { "model": "v3", "weight": 0.06301781787712588, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "market", "weight": 0.18729675699179427, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "histgeo", "weight": 0.02760802595386354, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "latent", "weight": 0.03563066882913146, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "batchbias", "weight": 0.020512372723621893, "source": "statewide fallback" } ], "candidate_benchmarks": { "Abdul El-Sayed": { "opponent": "Haley Stevens", "expected_remaining_share_points": 50.64093249871947, "expected_final_county_share_points": 50.64093249871947, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 49.4231749376425, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 49.4231749376425, "required_final_county_share_points": 49.4231749376425, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 49.4231749376425, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": -102.69860996056961, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": false }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 49.4231749376425, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 49.4231749376425, "required_final_county_share_points": 49.4231749376425, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 49.4231749376425, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 50.071081648442714, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 50.071081648442714, "required_final_county_share_points": 50.071081648442714, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.024044322225107804, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999973, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 50.71812278550689, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 50.71812278550689, "required_final_county_share_points": 50.71812278550689, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.003259695682198218, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.9999999999999996, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": 1.2177575610769722, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "ABOVE", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.012264495383383103, "criticality_score": 0.010071376910636063, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -129.89931982472385, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 26.392666842669083, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 26.392666842669083, "feasible": true, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 108.08925770362633, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Haley Stevens": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 44.4879633172606, "expected_final_county_share_points": 44.48796331726059, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 45.705720878337566, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 45.705720878337566, "required_final_county_share_points": 45.705720878337566, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 45.705720878337566, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 197.82750577654969, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 45.705720878337566, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 45.705720878337566, "required_final_county_share_points": 45.705720878337566, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 45.705720878337566, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 46.35448846239838, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 46.35448846239838, "required_final_county_share_points": 46.35448846239838, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.07865391656842785, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.999999999999999, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 47.00411217818334, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 47.00411217818334, "required_final_county_share_points": 47.00411217818334, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.10597932088248406, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -1.217757561076965, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.012264495383383103, "criticality_score": 0.010071376910636122, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 225.02821564070393, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 381.32020230809684, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 463.01679316905415, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Mallory McMorrow": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 4.871104184019935, "expected_final_county_share_points": 4.871104184019935, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 37.86933215353064, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 37.86933215353064, "required_final_county_share_points": 37.86933215353064, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 37.86933215353064, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 3696.8371726634273, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 37.86933215353064, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 37.86933215353064, "required_final_county_share_points": 37.86933215353064, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 37.86933215353064, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 38.50992868634179, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 38.50992868634179, "required_final_county_share_points": 38.50992868634179, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.159018308558073, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999906, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 39.146969063228, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 39.146969063228, "required_final_county_share_points": 39.14696906322799, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.213613509684069, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.999999999999993, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -32.99822796951071, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "WELL BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.012264495383383103, "criticality_score": 0.0003716713332217445, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 185.41135650746327, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 341.7033431748562, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 423.3999340358135, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } } } }, { "cid": "26139", "county": "26139", "fips": null, "reporting": 0.0, "current_votes": 0, "current_candidate_votes": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 0, "Haley Stevens": 0, "Mallory McMorrow": 0 }, "current_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": null, "Haley Stevens": null, "Mallory McMorrow": null }, "estimated_remaining_votes": 14785.060276468925, "estimated_final_votes": 14785.060276468925, "turnout_disagreement_votes": 0.0, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 51.474063544729454, "Haley Stevens": 44.494875217609255, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.031061237661287 }, "remaining_sources": [ { "model": "market", "remaining_votes": 14785.060276468925, "weight": 0.1780093144963334 } ], "share_sources": [ { "model": "v0", "weight": 0.03630604611298715, "source": "statewide raw" }, { "model": "v3", "weight": 0.06301781787712588, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "market", "weight": 0.18729675699179427, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "histgeo", "weight": 0.02760802595386354, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "latent", "weight": 0.03563066882913146, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "batchbias", "weight": 0.020512372723621893, "source": "statewide fallback" } ], "candidate_benchmarks": { "Abdul El-Sayed": { "opponent": "Haley Stevens", "expected_remaining_share_points": 51.474063544729454, "expected_final_county_share_points": 51.474063544729454, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 50.2466620638926, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 50.2466620638926, "required_final_county_share_points": 50.2466620638926, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 50.2466620638926, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": -104.68226350676511, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": false }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 50.2466620638926, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 50.2466620638926, "required_final_county_share_points": 50.2466620638926, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 50.2466620638926, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 50.89976301044866, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 50.89976301044866, "required_final_county_share_points": 50.89976301044866, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.024044322225107804, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999973, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 51.55184802510339, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 51.55184802510339, "required_final_county_share_points": 51.55184802510339, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.003259695682198218, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.9999999999999996, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": 1.2274014808368534, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "ABOVE", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.012043265528151579, "criticality_score": 0.009812001790922047, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -132.38263927061865, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 26.780367179859766, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 26.780367179859766, "feasible": true, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 109.977690954729, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Haley Stevens": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 44.494875217609255, "expected_final_county_share_points": 44.49487521760926, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 45.72227669844611, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 45.72227669844611, "required_final_county_share_points": 45.72227669844611, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 45.72227669844611, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 200.65120226910383, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 45.72227669844611, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 45.72227669844611, "required_final_county_share_points": 45.72227669844611, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 45.72227669844611, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 46.3763894606778, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 46.3763894606778, "required_final_county_share_points": 46.3763894606778, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.07865391656842785, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.999999999999999, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 47.03150987793309, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 47.03150987793309, "required_final_county_share_points": 47.03150987793309, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.10597932088248406, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -1.2274014808368534, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.012043265528151579, "criticality_score": 0.009812001790922047, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 228.35157803295738, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 387.5145844834358, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 470.7119082583051, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Mallory McMorrow": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 4.031061237661287, "expected_final_county_share_points": 4.031061237661287, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 35.30338873457184, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 35.30338873457184, "required_final_county_share_points": 35.30338873457184, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 35.30338873457184, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 3763.8170342886447, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 35.30338873457184, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 35.30338873457184, "required_final_county_share_points": 35.30338873457184, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 35.30338873457184, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 35.98896992775103, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 35.98896992775103, "required_final_county_share_points": 35.98896992775103, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.159018308558073, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999906, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 36.674101309651924, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 36.674101309651924, "required_final_county_share_points": 36.674101309651924, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.213613509684069, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.999999999999993, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -31.272327496910552, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "WELL BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.012043265528151579, "criticality_score": 0.0003851093440148116, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 187.8877640530094, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 347.0507705034878, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 430.2480942783571, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } } } }, { "cid": "fips:26139", "county": "Ottawa", "fips": "26139", "reporting": 38.53, "current_votes": 9627, "current_candidate_votes": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 5161, "Haley Stevens": 4028, "Mallory McMorrow": 438 }, "current_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 53.609639555417054, "Haley Stevens": 41.840656486963745, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.5497039576191955 }, "estimated_remaining_votes": 14785.060276468925, "estimated_final_votes": 24412.060276468925, "turnout_disagreement_votes": 0.0, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 51.92798716506366, "Haley Stevens": 43.837043408724, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.234969426212333 }, "remaining_sources": [ { "model": "v3", "remaining_votes": 14785.060276468925, "weight": 0.1342208488636769 }, { "model": "histgeo", "remaining_votes": 14785.060276468925, "weight": 0.05994207394479305 }, { "model": "latent", "remaining_votes": 14785.060276468925, "weight": 0.07672787409296966 }, { "model": "batchbias", "remaining_votes": 14785.060276468925, "weight": 0.045123489075924846 } ], "share_sources": [ { "model": "v0", "weight": 0.03630604611298715, "source": "statewide raw" }, { "model": "v1", "weight": 0.14599140026529184, "source": "county live" }, { "model": "v3", "weight": 0.15004242351696637, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "market", "weight": 0.0786646379365536, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "histgeo", "weight": 0.06573339512824654, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "latent", "weight": 0.08483492578364633, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "batchbias", "weight": 0.04883898267529022, "source": "county remaining" } ], "candidate_benchmarks": { "Abdul El-Sayed": { "opponent": "Haley Stevens", "expected_remaining_share_points": 51.92798716506366, "expected_final_county_share_points": 52.591153951422, "current_county_share_points": 53.609639555417054, "recent_batch_votes": 1248, "recent_batch_share_points": 53.766025641025635, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 50.70510086282513, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 50.70510086282513, "required_final_county_share_points": 51.8505180737, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 50.70510086282513, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": -104.22833988643102, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": false }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 50.70510086282513, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 50.70510086282513, "required_final_county_share_points": 51.8505180737, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 50.70510086282513, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 51.35589139750238, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 51.35589139750238, "required_final_county_share_points": 52.244666587737285, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.024044322225107804, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999973, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 52.00546057406791, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 52.00546057406791, "required_final_county_share_points": 52.63807539143891, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.003259695682198218, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.9999999999999996, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": 1.2228863022385354, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": 3.0609247782005085, "status": "ABOVE", "recent_status": "WELL ABOVE", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.012043265528151579, "criticality_score": 0.009848229967173536, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -131.92871565028446, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 27.234290800193975, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 27.234290800193975, "feasible": true, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 110.43161457506321, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Haley Stevens": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 43.837043408724, "expected_final_county_share_points": 43.049759718690204, "current_county_share_points": 41.840656486963745, "recent_batch_votes": 1248, "recent_batch_share_points": 42.78846153846153, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 45.059929710962535, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 45.059929710962535, "required_final_county_share_points": 43.79039559641221, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 45.059929710962535, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 199.99337046021864, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 45.059929710962535, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 45.059929710962535, "required_final_county_share_points": 43.79039559641221, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 45.059929710962535, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 45.711938579264114, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 45.711938579264114, "required_final_county_share_points": 44.18528198901722, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.07865391656842785, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.999999999999999, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 46.36516270962666, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 46.36516270962666, "required_final_county_share_points": 44.58090439991073, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.10597932088248406, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -1.2228863022385354, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -2.2714681725010024, "status": "BELOW", "recent_status": "BELOW", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.012043265528151579, "criticality_score": 0.009848229967173536, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 227.69374622407213, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 386.85675267455053, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 470.0540764494198, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Mallory McMorrow": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 4.234969426212333, "expected_final_county_share_points": 4.359086329887787, "current_county_share_points": 4.5497039576191955, "recent_batch_votes": 1248, "recent_batch_share_points": 3.4455128205128207, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 36.24624986729695, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 36.24624986729695, "required_final_county_share_points": 23.746581915608402, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 36.24624986729695, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 3764.020942477195, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 36.24624986729695, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 36.24624986729695, "required_final_county_share_points": 23.746581915608402, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 36.24624986729695, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 36.93173999641782, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 36.93173999641782, "required_final_county_share_points": 24.161746091151002, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.159018308558073, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999906, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 37.61609863788673, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 37.61609863788673, "required_final_county_share_points": 24.57622498601894, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.213613509684069, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.999999999999993, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -32.01128044108462, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -32.800737046784135, "status": "WELL BELOW", "recent_status": "WELL BELOW", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.012043265528151579, "criticality_score": 0.0003762194252215774, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 188.09167224156045, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 347.25467869203885, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 430.45200246690814, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } } } }, { "cid": "fips:26103", "county": "Marquette", "fips": "26103", "reporting": 0.0, "current_votes": 0, "current_candidate_votes": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 0, "Haley Stevens": 0, "Mallory McMorrow": 0 }, "current_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": null, "Haley Stevens": null, "Mallory McMorrow": null }, "estimated_remaining_votes": 13575.142700457824, "estimated_final_votes": 13575.142700457824, "turnout_disagreement_votes": 0.0, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 49.479015620196144, "Haley Stevens": 46.68774275125065, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.8332416285532016 }, "remaining_sources": [ { "model": "v3", "remaining_votes": 13575.142700457824, "weight": 0.1342208488636769 }, { "model": "histgeo", "remaining_votes": 13575.142700457824, "weight": 0.05994207394479305 }, { "model": "latent", "remaining_votes": 13575.142700457824, "weight": 0.07672787409296966 }, { "model": "batchbias", "remaining_votes": 13575.142700457824, "weight": 0.045123489075924846 } ], "share_sources": [ { "model": "v0", "weight": 0.03630604611298715, "source": "statewide raw" }, { "model": "v3", "weight": 0.15004242351696637, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "market", "weight": 0.0786646379365536, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "histgeo", "weight": 0.06573339512824654, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "latent", "weight": 0.08483492578364633, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "batchbias", "weight": 0.04883898267529022, "source": "county remaining" } ], "candidate_benchmarks": { "Abdul El-Sayed": { "opponent": "Haley Stevens", "expected_remaining_share_points": 49.479015620196144, "expected_final_county_share_points": 49.479015620196144, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.24497318150285, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.24497318150285, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.24497318150285, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 48.24497318150285, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": -120.59512348483716, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": false }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.24497318150285, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.24497318150285, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.24497318150285, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 48.24497318150285, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.90126272144794, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.90126272144794, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.90126272144794, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.024044322225107804, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999973, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 49.55731441533497, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 49.55731441533497, "required_final_county_share_points": 49.55731441533497, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.003259695682198218, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.9999999999999996, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": 1.2340424386932938, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "ABOVE", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.011057719418591907, "criticality_score": 0.008960566567143943, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -150.76436254083634, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 22.584433569791113, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 22.584433569791113, "feasible": true, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 113.19692096639565, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Haley Stevens": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 46.68774275125065, "expected_final_county_share_points": 46.687742751250646, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 47.921785189943954, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 47.921785189943954, "required_final_county_share_points": 47.921785189943954, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 47.921785189943954, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 216.761881856284, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 47.921785189943954, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 47.921785189943954, "required_final_county_share_points": 47.921785189943954, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 47.921785189943954, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.578306193036404, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.578306193036404, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.57830619303641, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.07865391656842785, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.999999999999999, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 49.23505225568606, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 49.23505225568606, "required_final_county_share_points": 49.23505225568606, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.10597932088248406, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -1.2340424386933009, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.011057719418591907, "criticality_score": 0.00896056656714389, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 246.93112091228315, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 420.2799170229105, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 510.8924044195151, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Mallory McMorrow": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 3.8332416285532016, "expected_final_county_share_points": 3.8332416285532016, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 33.77528908679408, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 33.77528908679408, "required_final_county_share_points": 33.77528908679408, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 33.77528908679408, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 4098.719274488188, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 33.77528908679408, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 33.77528908679408, "required_final_county_share_points": 33.77528908679408, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 33.77528908679408, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 34.435790924195956, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 34.435790924195956, "required_final_county_share_points": 34.435790924195956, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.159018308558073, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999906, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 35.09603558266566, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 35.09603558266566, "required_final_county_share_points": 35.09603558266566, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.213613509684069, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.999999999999993, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -29.94204745824088, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "WELL BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.011057719418591907, "criticality_score": 0.0003693040509007849, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 204.0766197895857, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 377.42541590021307, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 468.03790329681766, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } } } }, { "cid": "26103", "county": "26103", "fips": null, "reporting": 0.0, "current_votes": 0, "current_candidate_votes": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 0, "Haley Stevens": 0, "Mallory McMorrow": 0 }, "current_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": null, "Haley Stevens": null, "Mallory McMorrow": null }, "estimated_remaining_votes": 13575.142700457824, "estimated_final_votes": 13575.142700457824, "turnout_disagreement_votes": 0.0, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 48.973903537573875, "Haley Stevens": 46.149745434179586, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.8763510282465425 }, "remaining_sources": [ { "model": "market", "remaining_votes": 13575.142700457824, "weight": 0.1780093144963334 } ], "share_sources": [ { "model": "v0", "weight": 0.03630604611298715, "source": "statewide raw" }, { "model": "v3", "weight": 0.06301781787712588, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "market", "weight": 0.18729675699179427, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "histgeo", "weight": 0.02760802595386354, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "latent", "weight": 0.03563066882913146, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "batchbias", "weight": 0.020512372723621893, "source": "statewide fallback" } ], "candidate_benchmarks": { "Abdul El-Sayed": { "opponent": "Haley Stevens", "expected_remaining_share_points": 48.973903537573875, "expected_final_county_share_points": 48.973903537573875, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 47.75327342108671, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 47.75327342108671, "required_final_county_share_points": 47.75327342108671, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 47.75327342108671, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": -121.10023556745905, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": false }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 47.75327342108671, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 47.75327342108671, "required_final_county_share_points": 47.75327342108671, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 47.75327342108671, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.402435191598066, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.402435191598066, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.402435191598066, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.024044322225107804, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999973, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 49.05134992915548, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 49.05134992915548, "required_final_county_share_points": 49.05134992915548, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.003259695682198218, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.9999999999999996, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": 1.2206301164871647, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "ABOVE", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.011057719418591907, "criticality_score": 0.009059025555108185, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -151.26947462345862, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 22.079321487168844, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 22.079321487168844, "feasible": true, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 112.69180888377338, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Haley Stevens": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 46.149745434179586, "expected_final_county_share_points": 46.149745434179586, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 47.37037555066674, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 47.37037555066674, "required_final_county_share_points": 47.37037555066674, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 47.37037555066674, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 216.22388453921252, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 47.37037555066674, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 47.37037555066674, "required_final_county_share_points": 47.37037555066674, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 47.37037555066674, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.01977805349677, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.01977805349677, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.01977805349677, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.07865391656842785, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.999999999999999, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.6694149671013, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.6694149671013, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.6694149671013, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.10597932088248406, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -1.2206301164871576, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.011057719418591907, "criticality_score": 0.009059025555108239, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 246.39312359521207, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 419.74191970583945, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 510.35440710244404, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Mallory McMorrow": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 4.8763510282465425, "expected_final_county_share_points": 4.8763510282465425, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 37.136501345834354, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 37.136501345834354, "required_final_county_share_points": 37.136501345834354, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 37.136501345834354, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 4099.76238388788, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 37.136501345834354, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 37.136501345834354, "required_final_county_share_points": 37.136501345834354, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 37.136501345834354, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 37.749746513256014, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 37.749746513256014, "required_final_county_share_points": 37.749746513256014, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.159018308558073, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999906, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 38.359105897231565, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 38.359105897231565, "required_final_county_share_points": 38.359105897231565, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.213613509684069, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.999999999999993, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -32.260150317587815, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "WELL BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.011057719418591907, "criticality_score": 0.0003427671387062131, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 205.11972918927904, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 378.4685252999064, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 469.081012696511, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } } } }, { "cid": "26115", "county": "26115", "fips": null, "reporting": 0.0, "current_votes": 0, "current_candidate_votes": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 0, "Haley Stevens": 0, "Mallory McMorrow": 0 }, "current_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": null, "Haley Stevens": null, "Mallory McMorrow": null }, "estimated_remaining_votes": 13427.800539038479, "estimated_final_votes": 13427.800539038479, "turnout_disagreement_votes": 0.0, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 48.024175588881675, "Haley Stevens": 48.025137223368944, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.9506871877493968 }, "remaining_sources": [ { "model": "market", "remaining_votes": 13427.800539038479, "weight": 0.1780093144963334 } ], "share_sources": [ { "model": "v0", "weight": 0.03630604611298715, "source": "statewide raw" }, { "model": "v3", "weight": 0.06301781787712588, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "market", "weight": 0.18729675699179427, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "histgeo", "weight": 0.02760802595386354, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "latent", "weight": 0.03563066882913146, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "batchbias", "weight": 0.020512372723621893, "source": "statewide fallback" } ], "candidate_benchmarks": { "Abdul El-Sayed": { "opponent": "Haley Stevens", "expected_remaining_share_points": 48.024175588881675, "expected_final_county_share_points": 48.02417558888167, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 46.791520325763315, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 46.791520325763315, "required_final_county_share_points": 46.791520325763315, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 46.791520325763315, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": -123.91617318946456, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": false }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 46.791520325763315, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 46.791520325763315, "required_final_county_share_points": 46.791520325763315, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 46.791520325763315, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 47.44684331587058, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 47.44684331587058, "required_final_county_share_points": 47.44684331587058, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.024044322225107804, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999973, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.102448403406065, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.102448403406065, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.102448403406065, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.003259695682198218, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.9999999999999996, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": 1.2326552631183603, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "ABOVE", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.010937700917464176, "criticality_score": 0.008873284562785282, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -154.4164568478887, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 20.83448148060418, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 20.83448148060418, "feasible": true, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 112.44125231966704, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Haley Stevens": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 48.025137223368944, "expected_final_county_share_points": 48.02513722336894, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 49.257792486487304, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 49.257792486487304, "required_final_county_share_points": 49.257792486487304, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 49.257792486487304, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 219.96548600171513, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 49.257792486487304, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 49.257792486487304, "required_final_county_share_points": 49.257792486487304, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 49.257792486487304, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 49.91282706624261, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 49.91282706624261, "required_final_county_share_points": 49.91282706624261, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.07865391656842785, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.999999999999999, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 50.56756692245203, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 50.56756692245203, "required_final_county_share_points": 50.56756692245203, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.10597932088248406, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -1.2326552631183603, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.010937700917464176, "criticality_score": 0.008873284562785282, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 250.46576966013933, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 425.71670798863215, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 517.3234788276951, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Mallory McMorrow": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 3.9506871877493968, "expected_final_county_share_points": 3.9506871877493968, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 33.64631598787565, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 33.64631598787565, "required_final_county_share_points": 33.64631598787565, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 33.64631598787565, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 4143.7695708961355, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 33.64631598787565, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 33.64631598787565, "required_final_county_share_points": 33.64631598787565, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 33.64631598787565, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 34.27901459750404, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 34.27901459750404, "required_final_county_share_points": 34.27901459750403, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.159018308558073, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999906, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 34.91053553134712, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 34.91053553134712, "required_final_county_share_points": 34.91053553134713, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.213613509684069, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.999999999999993, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -29.695628800126258, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "WELL BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.010937700917464176, "criticality_score": 0.00036832696795488203, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 206.39131962451978, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 381.64225795301263, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 473.24902879207553, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } } } }, { "cid": "fips:26115", "county": "Monroe", "fips": "26115", "reporting": 20.1, "current_votes": 3167, "current_candidate_votes": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 1406, "Haley Stevens": 1595, "Mallory McMorrow": 166 }, "current_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 44.39532680770445, "Haley Stevens": 50.36311967161351, "Mallory McMorrow": 5.241553520682034 }, "estimated_remaining_votes": 13427.800539038479, "estimated_final_votes": 16594.80053903848, "turnout_disagreement_votes": 0.0, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 46.876193610444986, "Haley Stevens": 48.59278495244829, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.531021437106708 }, "remaining_sources": [ { "model": "v3", "remaining_votes": 13427.800539038479, "weight": 0.1342208488636769 }, { "model": "histgeo", "remaining_votes": 13427.800539038479, "weight": 0.05994207394479305 }, { "model": "latent", "remaining_votes": 13427.800539038479, "weight": 0.07672787409296966 }, { "model": "batchbias", "remaining_votes": 13427.800539038479, "weight": 0.045123489075924846 } ], "share_sources": [ { "model": "v0", "weight": 0.03630604611298715, "source": "statewide raw" }, { "model": "v1", "weight": 0.14599140026529184, "source": "county live" }, { "model": "v3", "weight": 0.15004242351696637, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "market", "weight": 0.0786646379365536, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "histgeo", "weight": 0.06573339512824654, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "latent", "weight": 0.08483492578364633, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "batchbias", "weight": 0.04883898267529022, "source": "county remaining" } ], "candidate_benchmarks": { "Abdul El-Sayed": { "opponent": "Haley Stevens", "expected_remaining_share_points": 46.876193610444986, "expected_final_county_share_points": 46.402737774335584, "current_county_share_points": 44.39532680770445, "recent_batch_votes": 867, "recent_batch_share_points": 41.9838523644752, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 45.65194690701247, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 45.65194690701247, "required_final_county_share_points": 45.41212987244515, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 45.65194690701247, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": -125.06415516790135, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": false }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 45.65194690701247, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 45.65194690701247, "required_final_county_share_points": 45.41212987244515, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 45.65194690701247, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 46.302659033720836, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 46.302659033720836, "required_final_county_share_points": 45.9386582043295, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.024044322225107804, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999973, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 46.95397062225247, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 46.95397062225247, "required_final_county_share_points": 46.465671594999264, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.003259695682198218, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.9999999999999996, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": 1.224246703432513, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -3.6680945425372755, "status": "ABOVE", "recent_status": "WELL BELOW", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.010937700917464176, "criticality_score": 0.008934229421894554, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -155.5644388263254, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 19.68649950216749, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 19.68649950216749, "feasible": true, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 111.29327034123035, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Haley Stevens": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 48.59278495244829, "expected_final_county_share_points": 48.9306407791819, "current_county_share_points": 50.36311967161351, "recent_batch_votes": 867, "recent_batch_share_points": 53.28719723183391, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 49.817031655880804, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 49.817031655880804, "required_final_county_share_points": 49.92124868107234, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 49.817031655880804, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 220.53313373079462, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 49.817031655880804, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 49.817031655880804, "required_final_county_share_points": 49.92124868107234, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 49.817031655880804, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 50.46713870347407, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 50.46713870347407, "required_final_county_share_points": 50.447287408899754, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.07865391656842785, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.999999999999999, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 51.11663506564437, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 51.11663506564437, "required_final_county_share_points": 50.97283199628648, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.10597932088248406, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -1.224246703432513, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": 3.4701655759531036, "status": "BELOW", "recent_status": "WELL ABOVE", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.010937700917464176, "criticality_score": 0.008934229421894554, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 251.03341738921867, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 426.28435571771155, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 517.8911265567745, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Mallory McMorrow": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 4.531021437106708, "expected_final_county_share_points": 4.666621446482503, "current_county_share_points": 5.241553520682034, "recent_batch_votes": 867, "recent_batch_share_points": 4.728950403690888, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 35.12340384155791, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 35.12340384155791, "required_final_county_share_points": 29.42066461648632, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 35.12340384155791, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 4144.349905145495, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 35.12340384155791, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 35.12340384155791, "required_final_county_share_points": 29.42066461648632, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 35.12340384155791, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 35.71554206664462, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 35.71554206664462, "required_final_county_share_points": 29.899797460493698, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.159018308558073, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999906, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 36.30432711307782, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 36.30432711307782, "required_final_county_share_points": 30.376217056214337, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.213613509684069, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.999999999999993, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -30.5923824044512, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -30.39445343786702, "status": "WELL BELOW", "recent_status": "WELL BELOW", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.010937700917464176, "criticality_score": 0.00035753021039226866, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 206.9716538738771, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 382.2225922023699, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 473.8293630414328, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } } } }, { "cid": "fips:26005", "county": "Allegan", "fips": "26005", "reporting": 0.0, "current_votes": 0, "current_candidate_votes": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 0, "Haley Stevens": 0, "Mallory McMorrow": 0 }, "current_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": null, "Haley Stevens": null, "Mallory McMorrow": null }, "estimated_remaining_votes": 12233.214980259478, "estimated_final_votes": 12233.214980259478, "turnout_disagreement_votes": 0.0, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 49.342013689444705, "Haley Stevens": 46.811999583278116, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.84598672727718 }, "remaining_sources": [ { "model": "v3", "remaining_votes": 12233.214980259478, "weight": 0.1342208488636769 }, { "model": "histgeo", "remaining_votes": 12233.214980259478, "weight": 0.05994207394479305 }, { "model": "latent", "remaining_votes": 12233.214980259478, "weight": 0.07672787409296966 }, { "model": "batchbias", "remaining_votes": 12233.214980259478, "weight": 0.045123489075924846 } ], "share_sources": [ { "model": "v0", "weight": 0.03630604611298715, "source": "statewide raw" }, { "model": "v3", "weight": 0.15004242351696637, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "market", "weight": 0.0786646379365536, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "histgeo", "weight": 0.06573339512824654, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "latent", "weight": 0.08483492578364633, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "batchbias", "weight": 0.04883898267529022, "source": "county remaining" } ], "candidate_benchmarks": { "Abdul El-Sayed": { "opponent": "Haley Stevens", "expected_remaining_share_points": 49.342013689444705, "expected_final_county_share_points": 49.342013689444705, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.108035384213146, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.108035384213146, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.108035384213146, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 48.108035384213146, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": -139.3884804393663, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": false }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.108035384213146, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.108035384213146, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.108035384213146, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 48.108035384213146, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.764269404507615, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.764269404507615, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.764269404507615, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.024044322225107804, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999973, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 49.42031421821407, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 49.42031421821407, "required_final_county_share_points": 49.42031421821407, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.003259695682198218, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.9999999999999996, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": 1.2339783052315596, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "ABOVE", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.009964643600723444, "criticality_score": 0.008075217820667883, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -172.86714700496643, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 19.497219022419582, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 19.497219022419582, "feasible": true, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 120.04948176261476, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Haley Stevens": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 46.811999583278116, "expected_final_county_share_points": 46.81199958327811, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.04597788850967, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.04597788850967, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.04597788850967, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 48.04597788850967, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 235.54249371208914, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.04597788850967, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.04597788850967, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.04597788850967, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 48.04597788850967, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.702394686253356, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.702394686253356, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.702394686253356, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.07865391656842785, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.999999999999999, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 49.35898781351872, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 49.35898781351872, "required_final_county_share_points": 49.35898781351872, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.10597932088248406, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -1.2339783052315525, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.009964643600723444, "criticality_score": 0.00807521782066793, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 269.02116027768926, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 461.38552630507525, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 561.9377890452704, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Mallory McMorrow": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 3.84598672727718, "expected_final_county_share_points": 3.84598672727718, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 33.77173500057215, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 33.77173500057215, "required_final_county_share_points": 33.77173500057215, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 33.77173500057215, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 4547.922284567509, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 33.77173500057215, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 33.77173500057215, "required_final_county_share_points": 33.77173500057215, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 33.77173500057215, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 34.42957081742002, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 34.42957081742002, "required_final_county_share_points": 34.42957081742003, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.159018308558073, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999906, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 35.08705134447809, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 35.08705134447809, "required_final_county_share_points": 35.08705134447809, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.213613509684069, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.999999999999993, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -29.92574827329497, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "WELL BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.009964643600723444, "criticality_score": 0.00033297892870453824, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 226.05514742168833, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 418.4195134490743, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 518.9717761892695, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } } } }, { "cid": "26005", "county": "26005", "fips": null, "reporting": 0.0, "current_votes": 0, "current_candidate_votes": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 0, "Haley Stevens": 0, "Mallory McMorrow": 0 }, "current_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": null, "Haley Stevens": null, "Mallory McMorrow": null }, "estimated_remaining_votes": 12233.214980259478, "estimated_final_votes": 12233.214980259478, "turnout_disagreement_votes": 0.0, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 51.520003701578986, "Haley Stevens": 44.646485246666586, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.8335110517544244 }, "remaining_sources": [ { "model": "market", "remaining_votes": 12233.214980259478, "weight": 0.1780093144963334 } ], "share_sources": [ { "model": "v0", "weight": 0.03630604611298715, "source": "statewide raw" }, { "model": "v3", "weight": 0.06301781787712588, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "market", "weight": 0.18729675699179427, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "histgeo", "weight": 0.02760802595386354, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "latent", "weight": 0.03563066882913146, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "batchbias", "weight": 0.020512372723621893, "source": "statewide fallback" } ], "candidate_benchmarks": { "Abdul El-Sayed": { "opponent": "Haley Stevens", "expected_remaining_share_points": 51.520003701578986, "expected_final_county_share_points": 51.52000370157898, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 50.28989257017238, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 50.28989257017238, "required_final_county_share_points": 50.28989257017238, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 50.28989257017238, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": -137.21049042723163, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": false }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 50.28989257017238, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 50.28989257017238, "required_final_county_share_points": 50.28989257017238, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 50.28989257017238, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 50.944425492966886, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 50.944425492966886, "required_final_county_share_points": 50.944425492966886, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.024044322225107804, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999973, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 51.59796256226642, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 51.59796256226642, "required_final_county_share_points": 51.59796256226642, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.003259695682198218, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.9999999999999996, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": 1.230111131406609, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "ABOVE", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.009964643600723444, "criticality_score": 0.008100604365175575, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -170.68915699283215, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 21.675209034553863, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 21.675209034553863, "feasible": true, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 122.22747177474905, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Haley Stevens": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 44.646485246666586, "expected_final_county_share_points": 44.646485246666586, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 45.876596378073195, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 45.876596378073195, "required_final_county_share_points": 45.876596378073195, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 45.876596378073195, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 233.37697937547722, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 45.876596378073195, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 45.876596378073195, "required_final_county_share_points": 45.876596378073195, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 45.876596378073195, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 46.53212092613422, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 46.53212092613422, "required_final_county_share_points": 46.53212092613422, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.07865391656842785, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.999999999999999, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 47.18863282712712, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 47.18863282712712, "required_final_county_share_points": 47.18863282712712, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.10597932088248406, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -1.230111131406609, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.009964643600723444, "criticality_score": 0.008100604365175575, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 266.85564594107774, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 459.2200119684637, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 559.7722747086589, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Mallory McMorrow": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 3.8335110517544244, "expected_final_county_share_points": 3.833511051754424, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 34.54719716022258, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 34.54719716022258, "required_final_county_share_points": 34.54719716022258, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 34.54719716022258, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 4547.909808891987, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 34.54719716022258, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 34.54719716022258, "required_final_county_share_points": 34.54719716022258, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 34.54719716022258, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 35.24050484242717, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 35.24050484242717, "required_final_county_share_points": 35.24050484242718, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.159018308558073, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999906, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 35.93423972785248, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 35.93423972785248, "required_final_county_share_points": 35.93423972785248, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.213613509684069, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.999999999999993, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -30.713686108468156, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "WELL BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.009964643600723444, "criticality_score": 0.00032443659043503945, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 226.04267174616555, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 418.40703777355156, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 518.9593005137467, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } } } }, { "cid": "fips:26037", "county": "Clinton", "fips": "26037", "reporting": 0.11, "current_votes": 11, "current_candidate_votes": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 8, "Haley Stevens": 3, "Mallory McMorrow": 0 }, "current_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 72.72727272727273, "Haley Stevens": 27.27272727272727, "Mallory McMorrow": 0.0 }, "estimated_remaining_votes": 12041.099798507375, "estimated_final_votes": 12052.099798507375, "turnout_disagreement_votes": 0.0, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 49.84449106487659, "Haley Stevens": 46.39578659448361, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.7597223406398017 }, "remaining_sources": [ { "model": "v3", "remaining_votes": 12041.099798507375, "weight": 0.1342208488636769 }, { "model": "histgeo", "remaining_votes": 12041.099798507375, "weight": 0.05994207394479305 }, { "model": "latent", "remaining_votes": 12041.099798507375, "weight": 0.07672787409296966 }, { "model": "batchbias", "remaining_votes": 12041.099798507375, "weight": 0.045123489075924846 } ], "share_sources": [ { "model": "v0", "weight": 0.03630604611298715, "source": "statewide raw" }, { "model": "v3", "weight": 0.15004242351696637, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "market", "weight": 0.0786646379365536, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "histgeo", "weight": 0.06573339512824654, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "latent", "weight": 0.08483492578364633, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "batchbias", "weight": 0.04883898267529022, "source": "county remaining" } ], "candidate_benchmarks": { "Abdul El-Sayed": { "opponent": "Haley Stevens", "expected_remaining_share_points": 49.84449106487659, "expected_final_county_share_points": 49.86537627181104, "current_county_share_points": 72.72727272727273, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.609835129356796, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.609835129356796, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.6318472117335, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 48.609835129356796, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": -141.897189233674, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": false }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.609835129356796, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.609835129356796, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.6318472117335, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 48.609835129356796, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 49.26650470995037, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 49.26650470995037, "required_final_county_share_points": 49.28791744735755, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.024044322225107804, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999973, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 49.92281421558731, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 49.92281421558731, "required_final_county_share_points": 49.943627936666815, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.003259695682198218, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.9999999999999996, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": 1.2346559355197968, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "ABOVE", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.009808154949168061, "criticality_score": 0.007944039037109375, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -175.91000635193933, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 19.523524100656452, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 19.523524100656452, "feasible": true, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 121.68009347024379, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Haley Stevens": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 46.39578659448361, "expected_final_county_share_points": 46.37833290126367, "current_county_share_points": 27.27272727272727, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 47.630442530003414, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 47.630442530003414, "required_final_county_share_points": 47.6118619613412, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 47.630442530003414, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 238.13746689303423, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 47.630442530003414, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 47.630442530003414, "required_final_county_share_points": 47.6118619613412, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 47.630442530003414, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.287465964091794, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.287465964091794, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.26828572749653, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.07865391656842785, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.999999999999999, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.94483700488815, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.94483700488815, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.925056783097816, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.10597932088248406, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -1.234655935519804, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.009808154949168061, "criticality_score": 0.00794403903710933, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 272.1502840112995, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 467.58381446389524, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 569.7403838334827, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Mallory McMorrow": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 3.7597223406398017, "expected_final_county_share_points": 3.756290826925307, "current_county_share_points": 0.0, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 33.62648500349666, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 33.62648500349666, "required_final_county_share_points": 33.59579397527565, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 33.62648500349666, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 4620.336544091753, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 33.62648500349666, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 33.62648500349666, "required_final_county_share_points": 33.59579397527565, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 33.62648500349666, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 34.295472243771066, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 34.295472243771066, "required_final_county_share_points": 34.26417062820295, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.159018308558073, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999906, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 34.9646436066978, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 34.9646436066978, "required_final_county_share_points": 34.93273123573309, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.213613509684069, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.999999999999993, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -29.86676266285686, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "WELL BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.009808154949168061, "criticality_score": 0.00032839698965317577, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 229.51421975745572, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 424.9477502100515, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 527.1043195796389, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } } } }, { "cid": "26037", "county": "26037", "fips": null, "reporting": 0.0, "current_votes": 0, "current_candidate_votes": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 0, "Haley Stevens": 0, "Mallory McMorrow": 0 }, "current_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": null, "Haley Stevens": null, "Mallory McMorrow": null }, "estimated_remaining_votes": 12041.099798507375, "estimated_final_votes": 12041.099798507375, "turnout_disagreement_votes": 0.0, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 51.874843127463365, "Haley Stevens": 44.16633808795746, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.9588187845791745 }, "remaining_sources": [ { "model": "market", "remaining_votes": 12041.099798507375, "weight": 0.1780093144963334 } ], "share_sources": [ { "model": "v0", "weight": 0.03630604611298715, "source": "statewide raw" }, { "model": "v3", "weight": 0.06301781787712588, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "market", "weight": 0.18729675699179427, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "histgeo", "weight": 0.02760802595386354, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "latent", "weight": 0.03563066882913146, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "batchbias", "weight": 0.020512372723621893, "source": "statewide fallback" } ], "candidate_benchmarks": { "Abdul El-Sayed": { "opponent": "Haley Stevens", "expected_remaining_share_points": 51.874843127463365, "expected_final_county_share_points": 51.874843127463365, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 50.64770404426277, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 50.64770404426277, "required_final_county_share_points": 50.64770404426277, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 50.64770404426277, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": -139.86683717108713, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": false }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 50.64770404426277, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 50.64770404426277, "required_final_county_share_points": 50.64770404426277, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 50.64770404426277, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 51.3007246051035, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 51.3007246051035, "required_final_county_share_points": 51.3007246051035, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.024044322225107804, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999973, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 51.952594946812816, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 51.952594946812816, "required_final_county_share_points": 51.952594946812816, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.003259695682198218, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.9999999999999996, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": 1.2271390832005977, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "ABOVE", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.009808154949168061, "criticality_score": 0.007992700325041105, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -173.87965428935257, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 21.553876163243224, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 21.553876163243224, "feasible": true, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 123.71044553283056, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Haley Stevens": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 44.16633808795746, "expected_final_county_share_points": 44.16633808795746, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 45.39347717115807, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 45.39347717115807, "required_final_county_share_points": 45.39347717115807, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 45.39347717115807, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 235.90801838650793, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 45.39347717115807, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 45.39347717115807, "required_final_county_share_points": 45.39347717115807, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 45.39347717115807, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 46.04764450466132, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 46.04764450466132, "required_final_county_share_points": 46.04764450466132, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.07865391656842785, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.999999999999999, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 46.70295511789028, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 46.70295511789028, "required_final_county_share_points": 46.70295511789028, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.10597932088248406, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -1.2271390832006048, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.009808154949168061, "criticality_score": 0.007992700325041058, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 269.9208355047734, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 465.3543659573691, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 567.5109353269565, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Mallory McMorrow": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 3.9588187845791745, "expected_final_county_share_points": 3.9588187845791745, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 35.177207658742205, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 35.177207658742205, "required_final_county_share_points": 35.177207658742205, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 35.177207658742205, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 4620.535640535693, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 35.177207658742205, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 35.177207658742205, "required_final_county_share_points": 35.177207658742205, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 35.177207658742205, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 35.87182725717031, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 35.87182725717031, "required_final_county_share_points": 35.87182725717031, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.159018308558073, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999906, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 36.56643589803949, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 36.56643589803949, "required_final_county_share_points": 36.56643589803949, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.213613509684069, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.999999999999993, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -31.21838887416303, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "WELL BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.009808154949168061, "criticality_score": 0.0003141787677994328, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 229.7133162013951, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 425.14684665399085, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 527.3034160235783, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } } } }, { "cid": "fips:26025", "county": "Calhoun", "fips": "26025", "reporting": 7.2700000000000005, "current_votes": 918, "current_candidate_votes": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 411, "Haley Stevens": 458, "Mallory McMorrow": 49 }, "current_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 44.771241830065364, "Haley Stevens": 49.89106753812636, "Mallory McMorrow": 5.337690631808279 }, "estimated_remaining_votes": 11811.954356962822, "estimated_final_votes": 12729.954356962822, "turnout_disagreement_votes": 0.0, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 47.5320731168922, "Haley Stevens": 48.03569416485915, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.432232718248659 }, "remaining_sources": [ { "model": "v3", "remaining_votes": 11811.954356962822, "weight": 0.1342208488636769 }, { "model": "histgeo", "remaining_votes": 11811.954356962822, "weight": 0.05994207394479305 }, { "model": "latent", "remaining_votes": 11811.954356962822, "weight": 0.07672787409296966 }, { "model": "batchbias", "remaining_votes": 11811.954356962822, "weight": 0.045123489075924846 } ], "share_sources": [ { "model": "v0", "weight": 0.03630604611298715, "source": "statewide raw" }, { "model": "v1", "weight": 0.14599140026529184, "source": "county live" }, { "model": "v3", "weight": 0.15004242351696637, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "market", "weight": 0.0786646379365536, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "histgeo", "weight": 0.06573339512824654, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "latent", "weight": 0.08483492578364633, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "batchbias", "weight": 0.04883898267529022, "source": "county remaining" } ], "candidate_benchmarks": { "Abdul El-Sayed": { "opponent": "Haley Stevens", "expected_remaining_share_points": 47.5320731168922, "expected_final_county_share_points": 47.332980248980945, "current_county_share_points": 44.771241830065364, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 46.30579741135068, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 46.30579741135068, "required_final_county_share_points": 46.19513542591713, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 46.30579741135068, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": -147.92929070452968, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": false }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 46.30579741135068, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 46.30579741135068, "required_final_county_share_points": 46.19513542591713, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 46.30579741135068, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 46.95768758428099, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 46.95768758428099, "required_final_county_share_points": 46.800015596928404, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.024044322225107804, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999973, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 47.6099520136363, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 47.6099520136363, "required_final_county_share_points": 47.40524303546996, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.003259695682198218, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.9999999999999996, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": 1.2262757055415179, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "ABOVE", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.009621503062365902, "criticality_score": 0.007846117328172208, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -182.6019378357808, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 16.62289600953191, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 16.62289600953191, "feasible": true, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 120.76124684283374, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Haley Stevens": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 48.03569416485915, "expected_final_county_share_points": 48.16949140473125, "current_county_share_points": 49.89106753812636, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 49.26196987040067, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 49.26196987040067, "required_final_county_share_points": 49.307336227795055, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 49.26196987040067, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 243.49705798628105, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 49.26196987040067, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 49.26196987040067, "required_final_county_share_points": 49.307336227795055, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 49.26196987040067, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 49.91347964938004, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 49.91347964938004, "required_final_county_share_points": 49.91186343634785, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.07865391656842785, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.999999999999999, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 50.564602900104774, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 50.564602900104774, "required_final_county_share_points": 50.516031990503826, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.10597932088248406, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -1.2262757055415179, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.009621503062365902, "criticality_score": 0.007846117328172208, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 278.16970511753215, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 477.3945389628448, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 581.5328897961467, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Mallory McMorrow": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 4.432232718248659, "expected_final_county_share_points": 4.49752834628782, "current_county_share_points": 5.337690631808279, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 35.09721729517752, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 35.09721729517752, "required_final_county_share_points": 32.951157324268806, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 35.09721729517752, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 4710.568114915691, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 35.09721729517752, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 35.09721729517752, "required_final_county_share_points": 32.951157324268806, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 35.09721729517752, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 35.70379045516581, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 35.70379045516581, "required_final_county_share_points": 33.513988445184914, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.159018308558073, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999906, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 36.30743029704905, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 36.30743029704905, "required_final_county_share_points": 34.07409777947088, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.213613509684069, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.999999999999993, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -30.664984576928862, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "WELL BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.009621503062365902, "criticality_score": 0.0003137618751520503, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 234.56624367092166, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 433.79107751623434, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 537.9294283495362, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } } } }, { "cid": "26025", "county": "26025", "fips": null, "reporting": 0.0, "current_votes": 0, "current_candidate_votes": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 0, "Haley Stevens": 0, "Mallory McMorrow": 0 }, "current_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": null, "Haley Stevens": null, "Mallory McMorrow": null }, "estimated_remaining_votes": 11811.954356962822, "estimated_final_votes": 11811.954356962822, "turnout_disagreement_votes": 0.0, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 50.29492018742767, "Haley Stevens": 45.67831422390735, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.026765588664979 }, "remaining_sources": [ { "model": "market", "remaining_votes": 11811.954356962822, "weight": 0.1780093144963334 } ], "share_sources": [ { "model": "v0", "weight": 0.03630604611298715, "source": "statewide raw" }, { "model": "v3", "weight": 0.06301781787712588, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "market", "weight": 0.18729675699179427, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "histgeo", "weight": 0.02760802595386354, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "latent", "weight": 0.03563066882913146, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "batchbias", "weight": 0.020512372723621893, "source": "statewide fallback" } ], "candidate_benchmarks": { "Abdul El-Sayed": { "opponent": "Haley Stevens", "expected_remaining_share_points": 50.29492018742767, "expected_final_county_share_points": 50.29492018742767, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 49.064571880940164, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 49.064571880940164, "required_final_county_share_points": 49.06457188094016, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 49.064571880940164, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": -145.16644363399433, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": false }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 49.064571880940164, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 49.064571880940164, "required_final_county_share_points": 49.06457188094016, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 49.064571880940164, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 49.719046956777056, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 49.719046956777056, "required_final_county_share_points": 49.71904695677706, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.024044322225107804, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999973, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 50.37294391319712, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 50.37294391319712, "required_final_county_share_points": 50.37294391319712, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.003259695682198218, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.9999999999999996, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": 1.2303483064875067, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "ABOVE", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.009621503062365902, "criticality_score": 0.007820145735669042, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -179.83909076524534, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 19.385743080067382, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 19.385743080067382, "feasible": true, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 123.52409391336923, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Haley Stevens": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 45.67831422390735, "expected_final_county_share_points": 45.67831422390735, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 46.908662530394864, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 46.908662530394864, "required_final_county_share_points": 46.90866253039486, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 46.908662530394864, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 241.13967804532933, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 46.908662530394864, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 46.908662530394864, "required_final_county_share_points": 46.90866253039486, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 46.908662530394864, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 47.56370999331633, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 47.56370999331633, "required_final_county_share_points": 47.56370999331634, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.07865391656842785, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.999999999999999, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.21932407802915, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.21932407802915, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.21932407802916, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.10597932088248406, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -1.2303483064875138, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.009621503062365902, "criticality_score": 0.007820145735668997, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 275.8123251765804, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 475.03715902189305, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 579.175509855195, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Mallory McMorrow": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 4.026765588664979, "expected_final_county_share_points": 4.026765588664978, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 34.82783918217315, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 34.82783918217315, "required_final_county_share_points": 34.82783918217316, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 34.82783918217315, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 4710.162647786108, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 34.82783918217315, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 34.82783918217315, "required_final_county_share_points": 34.82783918217316, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 34.82783918217315, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 35.494522382720554, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 35.494522382720554, "required_final_county_share_points": 35.494522382720554, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.159018308558073, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999906, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 36.16040573222969, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 36.16040573222969, "required_final_county_share_points": 36.16040573222969, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.213613509684069, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.999999999999993, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -30.80107359350817, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "WELL BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.009621503062365902, "criticality_score": 0.0003123755746096393, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 234.16077654133798, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 433.3856103866507, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 537.5239612199525, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } } } }, { "cid": "fips:26055", "county": "Grand Traverse", "fips": "26055", "reporting": 6.860000000000001, "current_votes": 1147, "current_candidate_votes": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 716, "Haley Stevens": 400, "Mallory McMorrow": 31 }, "current_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 62.42371403661726, "Haley Stevens": 34.873583260680036, "Mallory McMorrow": 2.7027027027027026 }, "estimated_remaining_votes": 11235.868104134455, "estimated_final_votes": 12382.868104134455, "turnout_disagreement_votes": 0.0, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 54.43571239177316, "Haley Stevens": 42.16109731196045, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.4031902962664082 }, "remaining_sources": [ { "model": "v3", "remaining_votes": 11235.868104134455, "weight": 0.1342208488636769 }, { "model": "histgeo", "remaining_votes": 11235.868104134455, "weight": 0.05994207394479305 }, { "model": "latent", "remaining_votes": 11235.868104134455, "weight": 0.07672787409296966 }, { "model": "batchbias", "remaining_votes": 11235.868104134455, "weight": 0.045123489075924846 } ], "share_sources": [ { "model": "v0", "weight": 0.03630604611298715, "source": "statewide raw" }, { "model": "v1", "weight": 0.14599140026529184, "source": "county live" }, { "model": "v3", "weight": 0.15004242351696637, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "market", "weight": 0.0786646379365536, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "histgeo", "weight": 0.06573339512824654, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "latent", "weight": 0.08483492578364633, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "batchbias", "weight": 0.04883898267529022, "source": "county remaining" } ], "candidate_benchmarks": { "Abdul El-Sayed": { "opponent": "Haley Stevens", "expected_remaining_share_points": 54.43571239177316, "expected_final_county_share_points": 55.175624810252124, "current_county_share_points": 62.42371403661726, "recent_batch_votes": 831, "recent_batch_share_points": 57.52105896510229, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 53.212056538779926, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 53.212056538779926, "required_final_county_share_points": 54.065313721297414, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 53.212056538779926, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": -151.0473607994102, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": false }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 53.212056538779926, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 53.212056538779926, "required_final_county_share_points": 54.065313721297414, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 53.212056538779926, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 53.863590480059784, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 53.863590480059784, "required_final_county_share_points": 54.65649739280427, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.024044322225107804, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999973, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 54.51314426580795, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 54.51314426580795, "required_final_county_share_points": 55.24588432657698, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.003259695682198218, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.9999999999999996, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": 1.2236558529932324, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": 4.309002426322365, "status": "ABOVE", "recent_status": "WELL ABOVE", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.00915224831600738, "criticality_score": 0.007479430015898431, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -187.4977464352749, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 21.94175769066065, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 21.94175769066065, "feasible": true, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 131.41949767941256, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Haley Stevens": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 42.16109731196045, "expected_final_county_share_points": 41.48606964094554, "current_county_share_points": 34.873583260680036, "recent_batch_votes": 831, "recent_batch_share_points": 39.95186522262335, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 43.38475316495368, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 43.38475316495368, "required_final_county_share_points": 42.596380729900254, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 43.38475316495368, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 247.6441705031438, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 43.38475316495368, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 43.38475316495368, "required_final_county_share_points": 42.596380729900254, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 43.38475316495368, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 44.038269839106256, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 44.038269839106256, "required_final_county_share_points": 43.18936347774841, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.07865391656842785, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.999999999999999, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 44.69377178815842, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 44.69377178815842, "required_final_county_share_points": 43.78414760850195, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.10597932088248406, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -1.2236558529932324, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -3.432887942330332, "status": "BELOW", "recent_status": "WELL BELOW", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.00915224831600738, "criticality_score": 0.007479430015898431, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 284.09455613900855, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 493.53406026494406, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 603.011800253696, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Mallory McMorrow": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 3.4031902962664082, "expected_final_county_share_points": 3.3383055488023445, "current_county_share_points": 2.7027027027027026, "recent_batch_votes": 831, "recent_batch_share_points": 2.527075812274368, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 33.689853437440846, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 33.689853437440846, "required_final_county_share_points": 30.819576406800614, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 33.689853437440846, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 4950.832416323424, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 33.689853437440846, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 33.689853437440846, "required_final_county_share_points": 30.819576406800614, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 33.689853437440846, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 34.44253091201927, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 34.44253091201927, "required_final_county_share_points": 31.5025348909092, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.159018308558073, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999906, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 35.19903705591981, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 35.19903705591981, "required_final_county_share_points": 32.188967402452775, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.213613509684069, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.999999999999993, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -30.286663141174436, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -31.162777625166477, "status": "WELL BELOW", "recent_status": "WELL BELOW", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.00915224831600738, "criticality_score": 0.0003021874107869276, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 245.3366491233145, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 454.77615324925, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 564.253893238002, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } } } }, { "cid": "26055", "county": "26055", "fips": null, "reporting": 0.0, "current_votes": 0, "current_candidate_votes": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 0, "Haley Stevens": 0, "Mallory McMorrow": 0 }, "current_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": null, "Haley Stevens": null, "Mallory McMorrow": null }, "estimated_remaining_votes": 11235.868104134455, "estimated_final_votes": 11235.868104134455, "turnout_disagreement_votes": 0.0, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 50.27001427473839, "Haley Stevens": 45.81976287256555, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.910222852696068 }, "remaining_sources": [ { "model": "market", "remaining_votes": 11235.868104134455, "weight": 0.1780093144963334 } ], "share_sources": [ { "model": "v0", "weight": 0.03630604611298715, "source": "statewide raw" }, { "model": "v3", "weight": 0.06301781787712588, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "market", "weight": 0.18729675699179427, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "histgeo", "weight": 0.02760802595386354, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "latent", "weight": 0.03563066882913146, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "batchbias", "weight": 0.020512372723621893, "source": "statewide fallback" } ], "candidate_benchmarks": { "Abdul El-Sayed": { "opponent": "Haley Stevens", "expected_remaining_share_points": 50.27001427473839, "expected_final_county_share_points": 50.27001427473838, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 49.03801996232512, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 49.03801996232512, "required_final_county_share_points": 49.03801996232512, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 49.03801996232512, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": -155.21305891644462, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": false }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 49.03801996232512, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 49.03801996232512, "required_final_county_share_points": 49.03801996232512, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 49.03801996232512, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 49.69335651254969, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 49.69335651254969, "required_final_county_share_points": 49.69335651254969, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.024044322225107804, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999973, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 50.34814620456779, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 50.34814620456779, "required_final_county_share_points": 50.34814620456779, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.003259695682198218, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.9999999999999996, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": 1.2319943124132635, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "ABOVE", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.00915224831600738, "criticality_score": 0.007428807279215202, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -191.66344455230967, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 17.77605957362588, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 17.77605957362588, "feasible": true, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 127.25379956237778, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Haley Stevens": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 45.81976287256555, "expected_final_county_share_points": 45.819762872565555, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 47.051757184978804, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 47.051757184978804, "required_final_county_share_points": 47.051757184978804, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 47.051757184978804, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 251.30283606374854, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 47.051757184978804, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 47.051757184978804, "required_final_county_share_points": 47.051757184978804, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 47.051757184978804, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 47.70763477133866, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 47.70763477133866, "required_final_county_share_points": 47.70763477133866, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.07865391656842785, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.999999999999999, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.36404753982466, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.36404753982466, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.36404753982466, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.10597932088248406, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -1.2319943124132564, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.00915224831600738, "criticality_score": 0.0074288072792152455, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 287.7532216996136, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 497.19272582554913, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 606.6704658143011, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Mallory McMorrow": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 3.910222852696068, "expected_final_county_share_points": 3.910222852696068, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 34.37576966977189, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 34.37576966977189, "required_final_county_share_points": 34.37576966977189, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 34.37576966977189, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 4951.339448879853, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 34.37576966977189, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 34.37576966977189, "required_final_county_share_points": 34.37576966977189, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 34.37576966977189, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 35.04626833729776, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 35.04626833729776, "required_final_county_share_points": 35.04626833729776, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.159018308558073, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999906, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 35.71643916962442, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 35.71643916962442, "required_final_county_share_points": 35.71643916962442, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.213613509684069, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.999999999999993, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -30.465546817075822, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "WELL BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.00915224831600738, "criticality_score": 0.00030041306564954155, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 245.84368167974415, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 455.28318580567964, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 564.7609257944316, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } } } }, { "cid": "fips:26147", "county": "St. Clair", "fips": "26147", "reporting": 34.81, "current_votes": 6209, "current_candidate_votes": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 2684, "Haley Stevens": 3260, "Mallory McMorrow": 265 }, "current_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 43.2275728780802, "Haley Stevens": 52.50442905459817, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.2679980673216305 }, "estimated_remaining_votes": 10755.18585599924, "estimated_final_votes": 16964.18585599924, "turnout_disagreement_votes": 0.0, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 45.83281190141864, "Haley Stevens": 50.08974230375978, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.077445794821586 }, "remaining_sources": [ { "model": "v3", "remaining_votes": 10755.18585599924, "weight": 0.1342208488636769 }, { "model": "histgeo", "remaining_votes": 10755.18585599924, "weight": 0.05994207394479305 }, { "model": "latent", "remaining_votes": 10755.18585599924, "weight": 0.07672787409296966 }, { "model": "batchbias", "remaining_votes": 10755.18585599924, "weight": 0.045123489075924846 } ], "share_sources": [ { "model": "v0", "weight": 0.03630604611298715, "source": "statewide raw" }, { "model": "v1", "weight": 0.14599140026529184, "source": "county live" }, { "model": "v3", "weight": 0.15004242351696637, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "market", "weight": 0.0786646379365536, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "histgeo", "weight": 0.06573339512824654, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "latent", "weight": 0.08483492578364633, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "batchbias", "weight": 0.04883898267529022, "source": "county remaining" } ], "candidate_benchmarks": { "Abdul El-Sayed": { "opponent": "Haley Stevens", "expected_remaining_share_points": 45.83281190141864, "expected_final_county_share_points": 44.879277836582396, "current_county_share_points": 43.2275728780802, "recent_batch_votes": 522, "recent_batch_share_points": 31.226053639846747, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 44.605605457129485, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 44.605605457129485, "required_final_county_share_points": 44.1012367620476, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 44.605605457129485, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": -168.83393016334102, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": false }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 44.605605457129485, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 44.605605457129485, "required_final_county_share_points": 44.1012367620476, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 44.605605457129485, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 45.25768385535758, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 45.25768385535758, "required_final_county_share_points": 44.514650316058216, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.024044322225107804, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999973, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 45.91083310615452, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 45.91083310615452, "required_final_county_share_points": 44.92874278378154, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.003259695682198218, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.9999999999999996, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": 1.227206444289152, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -13.379551817282739, "status": "ABOVE", "recent_status": "WELL BELOW", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.00876070551261586, "criticality_score": 0.007138738191429901, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -206.91339534719629, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 11.88660268739855, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 11.88660268739855, "feasible": true, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 126.25723870632014, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Haley Stevens": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 50.08974230375978, "expected_final_county_share_points": 50.973533023999586, "current_county_share_points": 52.50442905459817, "recent_batch_votes": 522, "recent_batch_share_points": 63.02681992337165, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 51.31694874804893, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 51.31694874804893, "required_final_county_share_points": 51.75157409853439, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 51.31694874804893, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 264.7564843685194, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 51.31694874804893, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 51.31694874804893, "required_final_county_share_points": 51.75157409853439, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 51.31694874804893, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 51.96795247398964, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 51.96795247398964, "required_final_county_share_points": 52.16430631715509, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.07865391656842785, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.999999999999999, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 52.617877730333426, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 52.617877730333426, "required_final_county_share_points": 52.57635479291576, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.10597932088248406, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -1.227206444289152, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": 11.709871175322718, "status": "BELOW", "recent_status": "WELL ABOVE", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.00876070551261586, "criticality_score": 0.007138738191429901, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 302.8359495523747, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 521.6359475869695, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 636.0065836058911, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Mallory McMorrow": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 4.077445794821586, "expected_final_county_share_points": 4.147189139418012, "current_county_share_points": 4.2679980673216305, "recent_batch_votes": 522, "recent_batch_share_points": 5.747126436781609, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 33.19113079950426, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 33.19113079950426, "required_final_county_share_points": 22.605080124363035, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 33.19113079950426, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 5172.622460493366, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 33.19113079950426, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 33.19113079950426, "required_final_county_share_points": 22.605080124363035, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 33.19113079950426, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 33.78345810582155, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 33.78345810582155, "required_final_county_share_points": 22.98061186641672, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.159018308558073, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999906, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 34.373572566360906, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 34.373572566360906, "required_final_county_share_points": 23.35474067833191, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.213613509684069, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.999999999999993, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -29.113685004682672, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -27.444004362722648, "status": "WELL BELOW", "recent_status": "WELL BELOW", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.00876070551261586, "criticality_score": 0.00030091366006078515, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 256.82365304343654, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 475.6236510780313, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 589.994287096953, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } } } }, { "cid": "26147", "county": "26147", "fips": null, "reporting": 0.0, "current_votes": 0, "current_candidate_votes": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 0, "Haley Stevens": 0, "Mallory McMorrow": 0 }, "current_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": null, "Haley Stevens": null, "Mallory McMorrow": null }, "estimated_remaining_votes": 10755.18585599924, "estimated_final_votes": 10755.18585599924, "turnout_disagreement_votes": 0.0, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 47.35787802698279, "Haley Stevens": 48.840422776193336, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.8016991968238676 }, "remaining_sources": [ { "model": "market", "remaining_votes": 10755.18585599924, "weight": 0.1780093144963334 } ], "share_sources": [ { "model": "v0", "weight": 0.03630604611298715, "source": "statewide raw" }, { "model": "v3", "weight": 0.06301781787712588, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "market", "weight": 0.18729675699179427, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "histgeo", "weight": 0.02760802595386354, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "latent", "weight": 0.03563066882913146, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "batchbias", "weight": 0.020512372723621893, "source": "statewide fallback" } ], "candidate_benchmarks": { "Abdul El-Sayed": { "opponent": "Haley Stevens", "expected_remaining_share_points": 47.35787802698279, "expected_final_county_share_points": 47.357878026982796, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 46.12409166333314, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 46.12409166333314, "required_final_county_share_points": 46.12409166333314, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 46.12409166333314, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": -167.30886403777703, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": false }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 46.12409166333314, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 46.12409166333314, "required_final_county_share_points": 46.12409166333314, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 46.12409166333314, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 46.77989456555659, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 46.77989456555659, "required_final_county_share_points": 46.779894565556596, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.024044322225107804, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999973, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 47.43625560333855, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 47.43625560333855, "required_final_county_share_points": 47.43625560333856, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.003259695682198218, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.9999999999999996, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": 1.2337863636496493, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "ABOVE", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.00876070551261586, "criticality_score": 0.007100666509800706, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -205.38832922163215, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 13.411668812962702, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 13.411668812962702, "feasible": true, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 127.78230483188429, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Haley Stevens": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 48.840422776193336, "expected_final_county_share_points": 48.84042277619333, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 50.07420913984299, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 50.07420913984299, "required_final_county_share_points": 50.07420913984299, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 50.07420913984299, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 263.5071648409531, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 50.07420913984299, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 50.07420913984299, "required_final_county_share_points": 50.07420913984299, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 50.07420913984299, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 50.72944812249888, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 50.72944812249888, "required_final_county_share_points": 50.72944812249888, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.07865391656842785, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.999999999999999, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 51.384117411156694, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 51.384117411156694, "required_final_county_share_points": 51.384117411156694, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.10597932088248406, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -1.2337863636496564, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.00876070551261586, "criticality_score": 0.007100666509800665, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 301.58663002480824, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 520.386628059403, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 634.7572640783247, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Mallory McMorrow": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 3.8016991968238676, "expected_final_county_share_points": 3.8016991968238676, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 32.83172907651274, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 32.83172907651274, "required_final_county_share_points": 32.83172907651274, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 32.83172907651274, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 5172.346713895367, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 32.83172907651274, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 32.83172907651274, "required_final_county_share_points": 32.83172907651274, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 32.83172907651274, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 33.45911217382962, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 33.45911217382962, "required_final_county_share_points": 33.45911217382962, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.159018308558073, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999906, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 34.08570176743383, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 34.08570176743383, "required_final_county_share_points": 34.08570176743383, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.213613509684069, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.999999999999993, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -29.03002987968887, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "WELL BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.00876070551261586, "criticality_score": 0.0003017807955735302, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 256.5479064454388, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 475.34790448003355, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 589.7185404989552, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } } } }, { "cid": "26091", "county": "26091", "fips": null, "reporting": 0.0, "current_votes": 0, "current_candidate_votes": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 0, "Haley Stevens": 0, "Mallory McMorrow": 0 }, "current_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": null, "Haley Stevens": null, "Mallory McMorrow": null }, "estimated_remaining_votes": 9669.598638685868, "estimated_final_votes": 9669.598638685868, "turnout_disagreement_votes": 0.0, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 49.45326057381173, "Haley Stevens": 46.839178974492555, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.707560451695713 }, "remaining_sources": [ { "model": "market", "remaining_votes": 9669.598638685868, "weight": 0.1780093144963334 } ], "share_sources": [ { "model": "v0", "weight": 0.03630604611298715, "source": "statewide raw" }, { "model": "v3", "weight": 0.06301781787712588, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "market", "weight": 0.18729675699179427, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "histgeo", "weight": 0.02760802595386354, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "latent", "weight": 0.03563066882913146, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "batchbias", "weight": 0.020512372723621893, "source": "statewide fallback" } ], "candidate_benchmarks": { "Abdul El-Sayed": { "opponent": "Haley Stevens", "expected_remaining_share_points": 49.45326057381173, "expected_final_county_share_points": 49.453260573811725, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.21753450149631, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.21753450149631, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.21753450149631, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 48.21753450149631, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": -189.31370321426488, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": false }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.21753450149631, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.21753450149631, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.21753450149631, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 48.21753450149631, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.874704590997396, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.874704590997396, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.87470459099739, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.024044322225107804, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999973, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 49.531670216098654, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 49.531670216098654, "required_final_county_share_points": 49.531670216098654, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.003259695682198218, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.9999999999999996, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": 1.2357260723154226, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "ABOVE", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.007876433492915, "criticality_score": 0.006373931625604252, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -231.66827662033046, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 11.6959758254307, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 11.6959758254307, "feasible": true, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 138.90678289358368, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Haley Stevens": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 46.839178974492555, "expected_final_county_share_points": 46.83917897449255, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.07490504680796, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.07490504680796, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.07490504680797, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 48.07490504680796, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 285.60614276256916, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.07490504680796, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.07490504680796, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.07490504680797, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 48.07490504680796, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.73227317566207, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.73227317566207, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.73227317566207, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.07865391656842785, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.999999999999999, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 49.3898328994224, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 49.3898328994224, "required_final_county_share_points": 49.38983289942241, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.10597932088248406, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -1.2357260723154084, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.007876433492915, "criticality_score": 0.0063739316256043255, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 327.96071616863475, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 571.324968614396, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 698.535775682549, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Mallory McMorrow": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 3.707560451695713, "expected_final_county_share_points": 3.707560451695713, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 33.27257907093374, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 33.27257907093374, "required_final_county_share_points": 33.27257907093374, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 33.27257907093374, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 5752.515170292247, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 33.27257907093374, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 33.27257907093374, "required_final_county_share_points": 33.27257907093374, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 33.27257907093374, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 33.937107256748334, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 33.937107256748334, "required_final_county_share_points": 33.937107256748334, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.159018308558073, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999906, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 34.60191950368675, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 34.60191950368675, "required_final_county_share_points": 34.60191950368675, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.213613509684069, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.999999999999993, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -29.565018619238025, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "WELL BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.007876433492915, "criticality_score": 0.0002664105710317323, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 284.8290976458379, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 528.1933500915991, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 655.4041571597521, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } } } }, { "cid": "fips:26091", "county": "Lenawee", "fips": "26091", "reporting": 0.0, "current_votes": 0, "current_candidate_votes": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 0, "Haley Stevens": 0, "Mallory McMorrow": 0 }, "current_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": null, "Haley Stevens": null, "Mallory McMorrow": null }, "estimated_remaining_votes": 9669.598638685866, "estimated_final_votes": 9669.598638685866, "turnout_disagreement_votes": 1.8189894035458565e-12, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 49.40484154496592, "Haley Stevens": 46.76140133975397, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.8337571152801133 }, "remaining_sources": [ { "model": "v3", "remaining_votes": 9669.598638685868, "weight": 0.1342208488636769 }, { "model": "histgeo", "remaining_votes": 9669.598638685868, "weight": 0.05994207394479305 }, { "model": "latent", "remaining_votes": 9669.598638685868, "weight": 0.07672787409296966 }, { "model": "batchbias", "remaining_votes": 9669.598638685868, "weight": 0.045123489075924846 } ], "share_sources": [ { "model": "v0", "weight": 0.03630604611298715, "source": "statewide raw" }, { "model": "v3", "weight": 0.15004242351696637, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "market", "weight": 0.0786646379365536, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "histgeo", "weight": 0.06573339512824654, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "latent", "weight": 0.08483492578364633, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "batchbias", "weight": 0.04883898267529022, "source": "county remaining" } ], "candidate_benchmarks": { "Abdul El-Sayed": { "opponent": "Haley Stevens", "expected_remaining_share_points": 49.40484154496592, "expected_final_county_share_points": 49.40484154496592, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.17074715851927, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.17074715851927, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.170747158519276, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 48.17074715851927, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": -189.36212224311055, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": false }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.17074715851927, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.17074715851927, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.170747158519276, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 48.17074715851927, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.827052193634955, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.827052193634955, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.82705219363495, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.024044322225107804, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999973, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 49.483146923868745, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 49.483146923868745, "required_final_county_share_points": 49.48314692386875, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.003259695682198218, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.9999999999999996, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": 1.2340943864466496, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "ABOVE", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.007876433492914997, "criticality_score": 0.006382359063793942, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -231.71669564917636, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 11.647556796584873, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 11.647556796584873, "feasible": true, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 138.8583638647379, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Haley Stevens": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 46.76140133975397, "expected_final_county_share_points": 46.76140133975397, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 47.9954957262006, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 47.9954957262006, "required_final_county_share_points": 47.9954957262006, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 47.9954957262006, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 285.52836512783045, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 47.9954957262006, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 47.9954957262006, "required_final_county_share_points": 47.9954957262006, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 47.9954957262006, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.65200465530991, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.65200465530991, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.6520046553099, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.07865391656842785, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.999999999999999, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 49.30871104791245, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 49.30871104791245, "required_final_county_share_points": 49.30871104791246, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.10597932088248406, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -1.2340943864466354, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.007876433492914997, "criticality_score": 0.006382359063794015, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 327.8829385338962, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 571.2471909796575, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 698.4579980478105, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Mallory McMorrow": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 3.8337571152801133, "expected_final_county_share_points": 3.8337571152801133, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 33.74882454142502, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 33.74882454142502, "required_final_county_share_points": 33.74882454142502, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 33.74882454142502, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 5752.641366955833, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 33.74882454142502, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 33.74882454142502, "required_final_county_share_points": 33.74882454142502, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 33.74882454142502, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 34.40811213788416, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 34.40811213788416, "required_final_county_share_points": 34.40811213788416, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.159018308558073, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999906, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 35.067116345943184, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 35.067116345943184, "required_final_county_share_points": 35.067116345943184, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.213613509684069, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.999999999999993, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -29.91506742614491, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "WELL BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.007876433492914997, "criticality_score": 0.0002632931887036705, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 284.95529430942236, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 528.3195467551836, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 655.5303538233367, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } } } }, { "cid": "26087", "county": "26087", "fips": null, "reporting": 0.0, "current_votes": 0, "current_candidate_votes": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 0, "Haley Stevens": 0, "Mallory McMorrow": 0 }, "current_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": null, "Haley Stevens": null, "Mallory McMorrow": null }, "estimated_remaining_votes": 8180.641770206287, "estimated_final_votes": 8180.641770206287, "turnout_disagreement_votes": 9.094947017729282e-13, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 47.492763922216724, "Haley Stevens": 48.89128799036895, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.6159480874143175 }, "remaining_sources": [ { "model": "market", "remaining_votes": 8180.641770206288, "weight": 0.1780093144963334 } ], "share_sources": [ { "model": "v0", "weight": 0.03630604611298715, "source": "statewide raw" }, { "model": "v3", "weight": 0.06301781787712588, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "market", "weight": 0.18729675699179427, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "histgeo", "weight": 0.02760802595386354, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "latent", "weight": 0.03563066882913146, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "batchbias", "weight": 0.020512372723621893, "source": "statewide fallback" } ], "candidate_benchmarks": { "Abdul El-Sayed": { "opponent": "Haley Stevens", "expected_remaining_share_points": 47.492763922216724, "expected_final_county_share_points": 47.492763922216724, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 46.256533276068595, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 46.256533276068595, "required_final_county_share_points": 46.256533276068595, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 46.256533276068595, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": -234.73212415647495, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": false }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 46.256533276068595, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 46.256533276068595, "required_final_county_share_points": 46.256533276068595, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 46.256533276068595, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 46.913642523992635, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 46.913642523992635, "required_final_county_share_points": 46.913642523992635, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.024044322225107804, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999973, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 47.57129484250533, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 47.57129484250533, "required_final_county_share_points": 47.57129484250533, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.003259695682198218, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.9999999999999996, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": 1.2362306461481296, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "ABOVE", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.006663594140774916, "criticality_score": 0.005390251537233336, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -284.7956444588789, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 2.8632838081873047, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 2.8632838081873047, "feasible": true, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 153.22770281162747, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Haley Stevens": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 48.89128799036895, "expected_final_county_share_points": 48.89128799036896, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 50.12751863651709, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 50.12751863651709, "required_final_county_share_points": 50.12751863651709, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 50.12751863651709, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 331.1161760690606, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 50.12751863651709, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 50.12751863651709, "required_final_county_share_points": 50.12751863651709, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 50.12751863651709, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 50.78407897745313, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 50.78407897745313, "required_final_county_share_points": 50.78407897745313, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.07865391656842785, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.999999999999999, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 51.44008458406315, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 51.44008458406315, "required_final_county_share_points": 51.44008458406315, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.10597932088248406, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -1.2362306461481367, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.006663594140774916, "criticality_score": 0.005390251537233305, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 381.17969637146456, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 668.8386246385307, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 819.2030436419709, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Mallory McMorrow": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 3.6159480874143175, "expected_final_county_share_points": 3.6159480874143175, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 32.172494533581066, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 32.172494533581066, "required_final_county_share_points": 32.172494533581066, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 32.172494533581066, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 6798.762808158199, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 32.172494533581066, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 32.172494533581066, "required_final_county_share_points": 32.172494533581066, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 32.172494533581066, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 32.80873554394479, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 32.80873554394479, "required_final_county_share_points": 32.80873554394479, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.159018308558073, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999906, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 33.44500349527299, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 33.44500349527299, "required_final_county_share_points": 33.44500349527299, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.213613509684069, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.999999999999993, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -28.55654644616675, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "WELL BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.006663594140774916, "criticality_score": 0.0002333473395789215, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 335.90435646850995, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 623.5632847355761, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 773.9277037390162, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } } } }, { "cid": "fips:26087", "county": "Lapeer", "fips": "26087", "reporting": 7.41, "current_votes": 685, "current_candidate_votes": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 258, "Haley Stevens": 399, "Mallory McMorrow": 28 }, "current_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 37.66423357664234, "Haley Stevens": 58.24817518248175, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.087591240875913 }, "estimated_remaining_votes": 8180.641770206287, "estimated_final_votes": 8865.641770206286, "turnout_disagreement_votes": 9.094947017729282e-13, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 44.72409096920356, "Haley Stevens": 51.33780540183276, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.9381036289636753 }, "remaining_sources": [ { "model": "v3", "remaining_votes": 8180.641770206288, "weight": 0.1342208488636769 }, { "model": "histgeo", "remaining_votes": 8180.641770206288, "weight": 0.05994207394479305 }, { "model": "latent", "remaining_votes": 8180.641770206288, "weight": 0.07672787409296966 }, { "model": "batchbias", "remaining_votes": 8180.641770206288, "weight": 0.045123489075924846 } ], "share_sources": [ { "model": "v0", "weight": 0.03630604611298715, "source": "statewide raw" }, { "model": "v1", "weight": 0.14599140026529184, "source": "county live" }, { "model": "v3", "weight": 0.15004242351696637, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "market", "weight": 0.0786646379365536, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "histgeo", "weight": 0.06573339512824654, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "latent", "weight": 0.08483492578364633, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "batchbias", "weight": 0.04883898267529022, "source": "county remaining" } ], "candidate_benchmarks": { "Abdul El-Sayed": { "opponent": "Haley Stevens", "expected_remaining_share_points": 44.72409096920356, "expected_final_county_share_points": 44.17861412282835, "current_county_share_points": 37.66423357664234, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 43.49928200064763, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 43.49928200064763, "required_final_county_share_points": 43.048439492677616, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 43.49928200064763, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": -237.50079710948805, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": false }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 43.49928200064763, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 43.49928200064763, "required_final_county_share_points": 43.048439492677616, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 43.49928200064763, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 44.149895210936045, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 44.149895210936045, "required_final_county_share_points": 43.64878335297433, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.024044322225107804, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999973, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 44.80201171029029, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 44.80201171029029, "required_final_county_share_points": 44.25051435135346, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.003259695682198218, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.9999999999999996, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": 1.2248089685559265, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "ABOVE", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.006663594140774916, "criticality_score": 0.00544051710254165, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -287.56431741189203, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 0.09461085517413892, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.09461085517413892, "feasible": true, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 150.45902985861431, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Haley Stevens": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 51.33780540183276, "expected_final_county_share_points": 51.8717321521389, "current_county_share_points": 58.24817518248175, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 52.56261437038868, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 52.56261437038868, "required_final_county_share_points": 53.001906782289645, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 52.56261437038868, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 333.5626934805244, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 52.56261437038868, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 52.56261437038868, "required_final_county_share_points": 53.001906782289645, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 52.56261437038868, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 53.21172305363015, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 53.21172305363015, "required_final_county_share_points": 53.600862362174894, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.07865391656842785, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.999999999999999, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 53.85932599592864, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 53.85932599592864, "required_final_county_share_points": 54.198428541543784, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.10597932088248406, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -1.2248089685559194, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.006663594140774916, "criticality_score": 0.0054405171025416815, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 383.6262137829284, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 671.2851420499945, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 821.6495610534347, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Mallory McMorrow": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 3.9381036289636753, "expected_final_county_share_points": 3.949653725032751, "current_county_share_points": 4.087591240875913, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 32.249482010879674, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 32.249482010879674, "required_final_county_share_points": 30.07356562744523, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 32.249482010879674, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 6799.084963699748, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 32.249482010879674, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 32.249482010879674, "required_final_county_share_points": 30.07356562744523, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 32.249482010879674, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 32.829018033308586, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 32.829018033308586, "required_final_county_share_points": 30.608324048246043, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.159018308558073, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999906, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 33.40652993372774, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 33.40652993372774, "required_final_county_share_points": 31.141214739954, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.213613509684069, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.999999999999993, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -28.311378381916, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "WELL BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.006663594140774916, "criticality_score": 0.0002353680577075439, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 336.2265120100593, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 623.8854402771254, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 774.2498592805656, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } } } }, { "cid": "fips:26111", "county": "Midland", "fips": "26111", "reporting": 38.17, "current_votes": 3780, "current_candidate_votes": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 1603, "Haley Stevens": 1999, "Mallory McMorrow": 178 }, "current_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 42.407407407407405, "Haley Stevens": 52.883597883597886, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.708994708994709 }, "estimated_remaining_votes": 7037.057104082069, "estimated_final_votes": 10817.057104082069, "turnout_disagreement_votes": 0.0, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 45.19162299853491, "Haley Stevens": 50.456543886001384, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.3518331154637 }, "remaining_sources": [ { "model": "v3", "remaining_votes": 7037.057104082069, "weight": 0.1342208488636769 }, { "model": "histgeo", "remaining_votes": 7037.057104082069, "weight": 0.05994207394479305 }, { "model": "latent", "remaining_votes": 7037.057104082069, "weight": 0.07672787409296966 }, { "model": "batchbias", "remaining_votes": 7037.057104082069, "weight": 0.045123489075924846 } ], "share_sources": [ { "model": "v0", "weight": 0.03630604611298715, "source": "statewide raw" }, { "model": "v1", "weight": 0.14599140026529184, "source": "county live" }, { "model": "v3", "weight": 0.15004242351696637, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "market", "weight": 0.0786646379365536, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "histgeo", "weight": 0.06573339512824654, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "latent", "weight": 0.08483492578364633, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "batchbias", "weight": 0.04883898267529022, "source": "county remaining" } ], "candidate_benchmarks": { "Abdul El-Sayed": { "opponent": "Haley Stevens", "expected_remaining_share_points": 45.19162299853491, "expected_final_county_share_points": 44.21868416376715, "current_county_share_points": 42.407407407407405, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 43.969561372027854, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 43.969561372027854, "required_final_county_share_points": 43.42366964478192, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 43.969561372027854, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": -282.8973314976655, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": false }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 43.969561372027854, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 43.969561372027854, "required_final_county_share_points": 43.42366964478192, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 43.969561372027854, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 44.61882285783133, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 44.61882285783133, "required_final_county_share_points": 43.84604794112612, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.024044322225107804, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999973, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 45.269339711514775, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 45.269339711514775, "required_final_county_share_points": 44.26924291943596, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.003259695682198218, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.9999999999999996, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": 1.222061626507056, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "ABOVE", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.0057320799277435315, "criticality_score": 0.004690499892486752, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -341.09662124221467, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -6.690546465690886, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 168.10943435850865, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Haley Stevens": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 50.456543886001384, "expected_final_county_share_points": 51.30467328225396, "current_county_share_points": 52.883597883597886, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 51.678605512508426, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 51.678605512508426, "required_final_county_share_points": 52.09968780123917, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 51.678605512508426, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 378.5454983822018, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 51.678605512508426, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 51.678605512508426, "required_final_county_share_points": 52.09968780123917, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 51.678605512508426, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 52.3266088404161, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 52.3266088404161, "required_final_county_share_points": 52.52124760056767, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.07865391656842785, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.999999999999999, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 52.97335124472781, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 52.97335124472781, "required_final_county_share_points": 52.94198710364889, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.10597932088248406, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -1.2220616265070419, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.0057320799277435315, "criticality_score": 0.0046904998924868066, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 436.74478812675096, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 771.1508629032746, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 945.9508437274742, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Mallory McMorrow": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 4.3518331154637, "expected_final_county_share_points": 4.4766425539788886, "current_county_share_points": 4.708994708994709, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 33.80975319683997, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 33.80975319683997, "required_final_county_share_points": 23.640548576246474, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 33.80975319683997, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 7903.770782826015, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 33.80975319683997, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 33.80975319683997, "required_final_county_share_points": 23.640548576246474, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 33.80975319683997, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 34.381231765300555, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 34.381231765300555, "required_final_county_share_points": 24.012325047547392, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.159018308558073, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999906, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 34.94952316265163, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 34.94952316265163, "required_final_county_share_points": 24.3820280986119, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.213613509684069, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.999999999999993, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -29.457920081376272, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "WELL BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.0057320799277435315, "criticality_score": 0.00019458535809415263, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 390.6400773562133, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 725.046152132737, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 899.8461329569366, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } } } }, { "cid": "26111", "county": "26111", "fips": null, "reporting": 0.0, "current_votes": 0, "current_candidate_votes": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 0, "Haley Stevens": 0, "Mallory McMorrow": 0 }, "current_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": null, "Haley Stevens": null, "Mallory McMorrow": null }, "estimated_remaining_votes": 7037.057104082069, "estimated_final_votes": 7037.057104082069, "turnout_disagreement_votes": 0.0, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 46.57792626117934, "Haley Stevens": 49.255133459520195, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.166940279300457 }, "remaining_sources": [ { "model": "market", "remaining_votes": 7037.057104082069, "weight": 0.1780093144963334 } ], "share_sources": [ { "model": "v0", "weight": 0.03630604611298715, "source": "statewide raw" }, { "model": "v3", "weight": 0.06301781787712588, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "market", "weight": 0.18729675699179427, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "histgeo", "weight": 0.02760802595386354, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "latent", "weight": 0.03563066882913146, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "batchbias", "weight": 0.020512372723621893, "source": "statewide fallback" } ], "candidate_benchmarks": { "Abdul El-Sayed": { "opponent": "Haley Stevens", "expected_remaining_share_points": 46.57792626117934, "expected_final_county_share_points": 46.577926261179336, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 45.349886369488424, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 45.349886369488424, "required_final_county_share_points": 45.34988636948842, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 45.349886369488424, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": -281.5110282350207, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": false }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 45.349886369488424, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 45.349886369488424, "required_final_county_share_points": 45.34988636948842, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 45.349886369488424, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 46.00253656009193, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 46.00253656009193, "required_final_county_share_points": 46.00253656009193, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.024044322225107804, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999973, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 46.65596544920646, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 46.65596544920646, "required_final_county_share_points": 46.65596544920646, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.003259695682198218, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.9999999999999996, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": 1.2280398916909192, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "ABOVE", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.0057320799277435315, "criticality_score": 0.0046676659011873674, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -339.7103179795702, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -5.304243203046454, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 169.49573762115307, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Haley Stevens": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 49.255133459520195, "expected_final_county_share_points": 49.255133459520195, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 50.4831733512111, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 50.4831733512111, "required_final_county_share_points": 50.4831733512111, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 50.4831733512111, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 377.3440879557202, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 50.4831733512111, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 50.4831733512111, "required_final_county_share_points": 50.4831733512111, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 50.4831733512111, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 51.13503977336495, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 51.13503977336495, "required_final_county_share_points": 51.13503977336495, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.07865391656842785, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.999999999999999, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 51.78611737335274, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 51.78611737335274, "required_final_county_share_points": 51.78611737335274, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.10597932088248406, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -1.228039891690905, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.0057320799277435315, "criticality_score": 0.004667665901187421, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 435.5433777002698, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 769.9494524767935, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 944.749433300993, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Mallory McMorrow": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 4.166940279300457, "expected_final_county_share_points": 4.166940279300458, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 33.809233454088464, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 33.809233454088464, "required_final_county_share_points": 33.809233454088464, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 33.809233454088464, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 7903.585889989853, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 33.809233454088464, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 33.809233454088464, "required_final_county_share_points": 33.809233454088464, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 33.809233454088464, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 34.410312809490804, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 34.410312809490804, "required_final_county_share_points": 34.410312809490804, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.159018308558073, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999906, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 35.00906747426667, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 35.00906747426667, "required_final_county_share_points": 35.00906747426667, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.213613509684069, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.999999999999993, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -29.64229317478801, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "WELL BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.0057320799277435315, "criticality_score": 0.00019337505009966305, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 390.45518452005, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 724.8612592965737, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 899.6612401207733, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } } } }, { "cid": "fips:26159", "county": "Van Buren", "fips": "26159", "reporting": 21.44, "current_votes": 1748, "current_candidate_votes": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 790, "Haley Stevens": 881, "Mallory McMorrow": 77 }, "current_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 45.19450800915332, "Haley Stevens": 50.400457665903886, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.4050343249427915 }, "estimated_remaining_votes": 6516.409355732237, "estimated_final_votes": 8264.409355732238, "turnout_disagreement_votes": 9.094947017729282e-13, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 47.25552132257438, "Haley Stevens": 48.62489070055419, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.119587976871421 }, "remaining_sources": [ { "model": "v3", "remaining_votes": 6516.409355732236, "weight": 0.1342208488636769 }, { "model": "histgeo", "remaining_votes": 6516.409355732236, "weight": 0.05994207394479305 }, { "model": "latent", "remaining_votes": 6516.409355732236, "weight": 0.07672787409296966 }, { "model": "batchbias", "remaining_votes": 6516.409355732236, "weight": 0.045123489075924846 } ], "share_sources": [ { "model": "v0", "weight": 0.03630604611298715, "source": "statewide raw" }, { "model": "v1", "weight": 0.14599140026529184, "source": "county live" }, { "model": "v3", "weight": 0.15004242351696637, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "market", "weight": 0.0786646379365536, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "histgeo", "weight": 0.06573339512824654, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "latent", "weight": 0.08483492578364633, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "batchbias", "weight": 0.04883898267529022, "source": "county remaining" } ], "candidate_benchmarks": { "Abdul El-Sayed": { "opponent": "Haley Stevens", "expected_remaining_share_points": 47.25552132257438, "expected_final_county_share_points": 46.819597699144325, "current_county_share_points": 45.19450800915332, "recent_batch_votes": 948, "recent_batch_share_points": 38.39662447257383, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 46.025735148483164, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 46.025735148483164, "required_final_county_share_points": 45.84992282155132, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 46.025735148483164, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": -307.0470680286294, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": false }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 46.025735148483164, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 46.025735148483164, "required_final_county_share_points": 45.84992282155132, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 46.025735148483164, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 46.67942067525063, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 46.67942067525063, "required_final_county_share_points": 46.36534773565963, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.024044322225107804, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999973, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 47.33364237533843, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 47.33364237533843, "required_final_county_share_points": 46.881195417408144, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.003259695682198218, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.9999999999999996, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": 1.2297861740912168, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -7.629110675909331, "status": "ABOVE", "recent_status": "WELL BELOW", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.0053079829702227885, "criticality_score": 0.004316183643994261, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -369.8963617104555, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -8.77192711914411, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 179.99421381862408, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Haley Stevens": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 48.62489070055419, "expected_final_county_share_points": 49.000439747296234, "current_county_share_points": 50.400457665903886, "recent_batch_votes": 948, "recent_batch_share_points": 56.118143459915615, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 49.854676874645406, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 49.854676874645406, "required_final_county_share_points": 49.970114624889234, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 49.854676874645406, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 402.9274800517579, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 49.854676874645406, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 49.854676874645406, "required_final_county_share_points": 49.970114624889234, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 49.854676874645406, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 50.50782041201335, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 50.50782041201335, "required_final_county_share_points": 50.48511218543341, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.07865391656842785, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.999999999999999, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 51.16041615278084, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 51.16041615278084, "required_final_county_share_points": 50.99967781348988, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.10597932088248406, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -1.2297861740912168, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": 6.2634665852702085, "status": "BELOW", "recent_status": "WELL ABOVE", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.0053079829702227885, "criticality_score": 0.004316183643994261, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 465.7767737335841, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 826.9012083248954, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1015.6673492626637, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Mallory McMorrow": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 4.119587976871421, "expected_final_county_share_points": 4.17996255355943, "current_county_share_points": 4.4050343249427915, "recent_batch_votes": 948, "recent_batch_share_points": 5.485232067510549, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 33.93232968573761, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 33.93232968573761, "required_final_county_share_points": 27.687030104241227, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 33.93232968573761, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 8534.685917313122, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 33.93232968573761, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 33.93232968573761, "required_final_county_share_points": 27.687030104241227, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 33.93232968573761, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 34.546229437520005, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 34.546229437520005, "required_final_county_share_points": 28.171084307488275, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.159018308558073, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999906, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 35.158130823795574, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 35.158130823795574, "required_final_county_share_points": 28.65356281825396, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.213613509684069, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.999999999999993, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -29.81274170886619, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -28.447097618227065, "status": "WELL BELOW", "recent_status": "WELL BELOW", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.0053079829702227885, "criticality_score": 0.0001780441068472483, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 421.2714710099013, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 782.3959056012127, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 971.162046538981, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } } } }, { "cid": "26159", "county": "26159", "fips": null, "reporting": 0.0, "current_votes": 0, "current_candidate_votes": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 0, "Haley Stevens": 0, "Mallory McMorrow": 0 }, "current_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": null, "Haley Stevens": null, "Mallory McMorrow": null }, "estimated_remaining_votes": 6516.409355732237, "estimated_final_votes": 6516.409355732237, "turnout_disagreement_votes": 9.094947017729282e-13, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 49.51528277225422, "Haley Stevens": 46.53771776940703, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.946999458338755 }, "remaining_sources": [ { "model": "market", "remaining_votes": 6516.409355732236, "weight": 0.1780093144963334 } ], "share_sources": [ { "model": "v0", "weight": 0.03630604611298715, "source": "statewide raw" }, { "model": "v3", "weight": 0.06301781787712588, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "market", "weight": 0.18729675699179427, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "histgeo", "weight": 0.02760802595386354, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "latent", "weight": 0.03563066882913146, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "batchbias", "weight": 0.020512372723621893, "source": "statewide fallback" } ], "candidate_benchmarks": { "Abdul El-Sayed": { "opponent": "Haley Stevens", "expected_remaining_share_points": 49.51528277225422, "expected_final_county_share_points": 49.51528277225422, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.28278378017898, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.28278378017898, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.282783780178974, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 48.28278378017898, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": -304.78730657894937, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": false }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.28278378017898, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.28278378017898, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.282783780178974, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 48.28278378017898, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.93826804224571, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.93826804224571, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.93826804224571, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.024044322225107804, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999973, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 49.593479420804734, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 49.593479420804734, "required_final_county_share_points": 49.593479420804734, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.003259695682198218, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.9999999999999996, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": 1.2324989920752358, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "ABOVE", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.0053079829702227885, "criticality_score": 0.00430668341666179, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -367.63660026077565, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -6.512165669464274, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 182.25397526830392, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Haley Stevens": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 46.53771776940703, "expected_final_county_share_points": 46.537717769407024, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 47.770216761482274, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 47.770216761482274, "required_final_county_share_points": 47.770216761482274, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 47.770216761482274, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 400.84030712061065, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 47.770216761482274, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 47.770216761482274, "required_final_county_share_points": 47.770216761482274, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 47.770216761482274, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.42596757275519, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.42596757275519, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.42596757275519, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.07865391656842785, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.999999999999999, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 49.08197857692001, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 49.08197857692001, "required_final_county_share_points": 49.081978576920015, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.10597932088248406, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -1.232498992075243, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.0053079829702227885, "criticality_score": 0.0043066834166617645, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 463.6896008024369, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 824.8140353937482, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1013.5801763315166, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Mallory McMorrow": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 3.946999458338755, "expected_final_county_share_points": 3.9469994583387544, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 34.22286820767025, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 34.22286820767025, "required_final_county_share_points": 34.22286820767025, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 34.22286820767025, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 8534.51332879459, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 34.22286820767025, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 34.22286820767025, "required_final_county_share_points": 34.22286820767025, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 34.22286820767025, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 34.87984921558222, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 34.87984921558222, "required_final_county_share_points": 34.87984921558222, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.159018308558073, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999906, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 35.53611265104667, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 35.53611265104667, "required_final_county_share_points": 35.53611265104667, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.213613509684069, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.999999999999993, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -30.275868749331497, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "WELL BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.0053079829702227885, "criticality_score": 0.00017532058333883453, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 421.09888249136867, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 782.22331708268, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 970.9894580204483, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } } } }, { "cid": "26073", "county": "26073", "fips": null, "reporting": 0.0, "current_votes": 0, "current_candidate_votes": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 0, "Haley Stevens": 0, "Mallory McMorrow": 0 }, "current_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": null, "Haley Stevens": null, "Mallory McMorrow": null }, "estimated_remaining_votes": 6240.3953919174755, "estimated_final_votes": 6240.3953919174755, "turnout_disagreement_votes": 0.0, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 48.29669880561634, "Haley Stevens": 47.412322142179555, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.290979052204104 }, "remaining_sources": [ { "model": "market", "remaining_votes": 6240.3953919174755, "weight": 0.1780093144963334 } ], "share_sources": [ { "model": "v0", "weight": 0.03630604611298715, "source": "statewide raw" }, { "model": "v3", "weight": 0.06301781787712588, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "market", "weight": 0.18729675699179427, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "histgeo", "weight": 0.02760802595386354, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "latent", "weight": 0.03563066882913146, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "batchbias", "weight": 0.020512372723621893, "source": "statewide fallback" } ], "candidate_benchmarks": { "Abdul El-Sayed": { "opponent": "Haley Stevens", "expected_remaining_share_points": 48.29669880561634, "expected_final_county_share_points": 48.29669880561634, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 47.06822390057636, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 47.06822390057636, "required_final_county_share_points": 47.06822390057636, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 47.06822390057636, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": -321.6767664973445, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": false }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 47.06822390057636, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 47.06822390057636, "required_final_county_share_points": 47.06822390057636, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 47.06822390057636, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 47.72139709974878, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 47.72139709974878, "required_final_county_share_points": 47.721397099748785, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.024044322225107804, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999973, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.37468647317589, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.37468647317589, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.37468647317589, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.003259695682198218, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.9999999999999996, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": 1.228474905039974, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "ABOVE", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.005083154028470737, "criticality_score": 0.004137776040533229, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -387.30589728605514, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -10.208855133528687, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 186.9064508045425, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Haley Stevens": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 47.412322142179555, "expected_final_county_share_points": 47.412322142179555, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.64079704721954, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.64079704721954, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.64079704721954, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 48.64079704721954, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 417.38578744514035, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.64079704721954, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.64079704721954, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.64079704721954, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 48.64079704721954, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 49.293847627020035, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 49.293847627020035, "required_final_county_share_points": 49.293847627020035, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.07865391656842785, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.999999999999999, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 49.946769135669626, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 49.946769135669626, "required_final_county_share_points": 49.946769135669626, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.10597932088248406, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -1.2284749050399881, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.005083154028470737, "criticality_score": 0.004137776040533181, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 483.01491823385106, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 860.1119603863774, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1057.2272663244487, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Mallory McMorrow": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 4.290979052204104, "expected_final_county_share_points": 4.290979052204105, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 34.95620564890421, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 34.95620564890421, "required_final_county_share_points": 34.95620564890421, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 34.95620564890421, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 8912.166000910478, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 34.95620564890421, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 34.95620564890421, "required_final_county_share_points": 34.95620564890421, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 34.95620564890421, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 35.58058939785999, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 35.58058939785999, "required_final_county_share_points": 35.58058939785999, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.159018308558073, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999906, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 36.20265998323656, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 36.20265998323656, "required_final_county_share_points": 36.20265998323656, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.213613509684069, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.999999999999993, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -30.665226596700105, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "WELL BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.005083154028470737, "criticality_score": 0.00016576280669055083, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 439.8935751438756, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 816.990617296402, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1014.1059232344732, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } } } }, { "cid": "fips:26073", "county": "Isabella", "fips": "26073", "reporting": 23.48, "current_votes": 1752, "current_candidate_votes": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 846, "Haley Stevens": 813, "Mallory McMorrow": 93 }, "current_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 48.28767123287671, "Haley Stevens": 46.4041095890411, "Mallory McMorrow": 5.308219178082192 }, "estimated_remaining_votes": 6240.395391917475, "estimated_final_votes": 7992.395391917475, "turnout_disagreement_votes": 9.094947017729282e-13, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 48.8925809522907, "Haley Stevens": 46.526053035113435, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.581366012595873 }, "remaining_sources": [ { "model": "v3", "remaining_votes": 6240.3953919174755, "weight": 0.1342208488636769 }, { "model": "histgeo", "remaining_votes": 6240.3953919174755, "weight": 0.05994207394479305 }, { "model": "latent", "remaining_votes": 6240.3953919174755, "weight": 0.07672787409296966 }, { "model": "batchbias", "remaining_votes": 6240.3953919174755, "weight": 0.045123489075924846 } ], "share_sources": [ { "model": "v0", "weight": 0.03630604611298715, "source": "statewide raw" }, { "model": "v1", "weight": 0.14599140026529184, "source": "county live" }, { "model": "v3", "weight": 0.15004242351696637, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "market", "weight": 0.0786646379365536, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "histgeo", "weight": 0.06573339512824654, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "latent", "weight": 0.08483492578364633, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "batchbias", "weight": 0.04883898267529022, "source": "county remaining" } ], "candidate_benchmarks": { "Abdul El-Sayed": { "opponent": "Haley Stevens", "expected_remaining_share_points": 48.8925809522907, "expected_final_county_share_points": 48.759979676147, "current_county_share_points": 48.28767123287671, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 47.66799292688369, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 47.66799292688369, "required_final_county_share_points": 47.80383160088094, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 47.66799292688369, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": -321.0808843506707, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": false }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 47.66799292688369, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 47.66799292688369, "required_final_county_share_points": 47.80383160088094, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 47.66799292688369, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.31922133349791, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.31922133349791, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.3123052872342, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.024044322225107804, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999973, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.97028883887759, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.97028883887759, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.82065334325097, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.003259695682198218, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.9999999999999996, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": 1.2245880254070087, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "ABOVE", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.005083154028470737, "criticality_score": 0.004150909467517683, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -386.7100151393808, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -9.612972986854324, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 187.50233295121686, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Haley Stevens": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 46.526053035113435, "expected_final_county_share_points": 46.499322010552916, "current_county_share_points": 46.4041095890411, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 47.750641060520444, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 47.750641060520444, "required_final_county_share_points": 47.45547008581897, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 47.750641060520444, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 416.4995183380749, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 47.750641060520444, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 47.750641060520444, "required_final_county_share_points": 47.45547008581897, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 47.750641060520444, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.40202396708471, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.40202396708471, "required_final_county_share_points": 47.96406440443942, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.07865391656842785, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.999999999999999, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 49.05355495472061, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 49.05355495472061, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.472774343520534, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.10597932088248406, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -1.2245880254070087, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.005083154028470737, "criticality_score": 0.004150909467517683, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 482.1286491267849, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 859.2256912793114, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1056.3409972173824, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Mallory McMorrow": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 4.581366012595873, "expected_final_county_share_points": 4.740698313300094, "current_county_share_points": 5.308219178082192, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 36.1739198229107, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 36.1739198229107, "required_final_county_share_points": 29.407899765341217, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 36.1739198229107, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 8912.45638787087, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 36.1739198229107, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 36.1739198229107, "required_final_county_share_points": 29.407899765341217, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 36.1739198229107, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 36.79701005774318, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 36.79701005774318, "required_final_county_share_points": 29.894403402802595, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.159018308558073, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999906, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 37.41701679916838, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 37.41701679916838, "required_final_county_share_points": 30.37849947443342, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.213613509684069, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.999999999999993, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -31.592553810314826, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "WELL BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.005083154028470737, "criticality_score": 0.00016089721834425144, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 440.1839621042674, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 817.2810042567937, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1014.3963101948649, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } } } }, { "cid": "fips:26089", "county": "Leelanau", "fips": "26089", "reporting": 15.83, "current_votes": 903, "current_candidate_votes": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 495, "Haley Stevens": 382, "Mallory McMorrow": 26 }, "current_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 54.81727574750831, "Haley Stevens": 42.30343300110742, "Mallory McMorrow": 2.8792912513842746 }, "estimated_remaining_votes": 5496.342097041341, "estimated_final_votes": 6399.342097041341, "turnout_disagreement_votes": 0.0, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 51.92963635912877, "Haley Stevens": 44.689655617645144, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.3807080232260818 }, "remaining_sources": [ { "model": "v3", "remaining_votes": 5496.342097041341, "weight": 0.1342208488636769 }, { "model": "histgeo", "remaining_votes": 5496.342097041341, "weight": 0.05994207394479305 }, { "model": "latent", "remaining_votes": 5496.342097041341, "weight": 0.07672787409296966 }, { "model": "batchbias", "remaining_votes": 5496.342097041341, "weight": 0.045123489075924846 } ], "share_sources": [ { "model": "v0", "weight": 0.03630604611298715, "source": "statewide raw" }, { "model": "v1", "weight": 0.14599140026529184, "source": "county live" }, { "model": "v3", "weight": 0.15004242351696637, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "market", "weight": 0.0786646379365536, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "histgeo", "weight": 0.06573339512824654, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "latent", "weight": 0.08483492578364633, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "batchbias", "weight": 0.04883898267529022, "source": "county remaining" } ], "candidate_benchmarks": { "Abdul El-Sayed": { "opponent": "Haley Stevens", "expected_remaining_share_points": 51.92963635912877, "expected_final_county_share_points": 52.337106115888965, "current_county_share_points": 54.81727574750831, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 50.69425226719954, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 50.69425226719954, "required_final_county_share_points": 51.27604491810972, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 50.69425226719954, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": -368.1280433204432, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": false }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 50.69425226719954, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 50.69425226719954, "required_final_county_share_points": 51.27604491810972, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 50.69425226719954, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 51.351618242492705, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 51.351618242492705, "required_final_county_share_points": 51.840651127369405, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.024044322225107804, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999973, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 52.007921993383974, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 52.007921993383974, "required_final_county_share_points": 52.404345000859564, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.003259695682198218, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.9999999999999996, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": 1.2353840919292338, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "ABOVE", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.004477080652391851, "criticality_score": 0.0036240394235611626, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -442.64155032537974, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -14.495957746440205, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 209.30333005889648, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Haley Stevens": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 44.689655617645144, "expected_final_county_share_points": 44.35293990686453, "current_county_share_points": 42.30343300110742, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 45.92503970957438, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 45.92503970957438, "required_final_county_share_points": 45.41400110464378, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 45.92503970957438, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 464.74733529721715, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 45.92503970957438, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 45.92503970957438, "required_final_county_share_points": 45.41400110464378, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 45.92503970957438, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 46.58346395490396, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 46.58346395490396, "required_final_county_share_points": 45.97951625330114, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.07865391656842785, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.999999999999999, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 47.24294247049858, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 47.24294247049858, "required_final_county_share_points": 46.54593690598556, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.10597932088248406, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -1.2353840919292338, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.004477080652391851, "criticality_score": 0.0036240394235611626, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 539.2608423021536, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 967.4064348810931, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1191.20572268643, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Mallory McMorrow": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 3.3807080232260818, "expected_final_county_share_points": 3.3099539772464976, "current_county_share_points": 2.8792912513842746, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 32.759951700275636, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 32.759951700275636, "required_final_county_share_points": 28.54354382956283, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 32.759951700275636, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 10117.136594525324, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 32.759951700275636, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 32.759951700275636, "required_final_county_share_points": 28.54354382956283, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 32.759951700275636, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 33.47427160480194, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 33.47427160480194, "required_final_county_share_points": 29.157067298454685, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.159018308558073, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999906, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 34.191469734079504, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 34.191469734079504, "required_final_county_share_points": 29.77306285082406, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.213613509684069, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.999999999999993, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -29.379243677049555, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "WELL BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.004477080652391851, "criticality_score": 0.00015238924124820995, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 497.9518947077346, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 926.0974872866741, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1149.8967750920108, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } } } }, { "cid": "26089", "county": "26089", "fips": null, "reporting": 0.0, "current_votes": 0, "current_candidate_votes": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 0, "Haley Stevens": 0, "Mallory McMorrow": 0 }, "current_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": null, "Haley Stevens": null, "Mallory McMorrow": null }, "estimated_remaining_votes": 5496.342097041341, "estimated_final_votes": 5496.342097041341, "turnout_disagreement_votes": 0.0, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 49.77721291445259, "Haley Stevens": 46.404587803541965, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.8181992820054464 }, "remaining_sources": [ { "model": "market", "remaining_votes": 5496.342097041341, "weight": 0.1780093144963334 } ], "share_sources": [ { "model": "v0", "weight": 0.03630604611298715, "source": "statewide raw" }, { "model": "v3", "weight": 0.06301781787712588, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "market", "weight": 0.18729675699179427, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "histgeo", "weight": 0.02760802595386354, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "latent", "weight": 0.03563066882913146, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "batchbias", "weight": 0.020512372723621893, "source": "statewide fallback" } ], "candidate_benchmarks": { "Abdul El-Sayed": { "opponent": "Haley Stevens", "expected_remaining_share_points": 49.77721291445259, "expected_final_county_share_points": 49.7772129144526, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.54326417857347, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.54326417857347, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.54326417857347, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 48.54326417857347, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": -370.2804667651199, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": false }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.54326417857347, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.54326417857347, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.54326417857347, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 48.54326417857347, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 49.19955155345625, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 49.19955155345625, "required_final_county_share_points": 49.19955155345625, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.024044322225107804, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999973, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 49.85549284741266, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 49.85549284741266, "required_final_county_share_points": 49.85549284741266, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.003259695682198218, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.9999999999999996, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": 1.2339487358791175, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "ABOVE", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.004477080652391851, "criticality_score": 0.0036282549851653187, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -444.7939737700559, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -16.648381191116385, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 207.15090661422028, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Haley Stevens": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 46.404587803541965, "expected_final_county_share_points": 46.404587803541965, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 47.638536539421075, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 47.638536539421075, "required_final_county_share_points": 47.63853653942107, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 47.638536539421075, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 466.46226748311454, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 47.638536539421075, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 47.638536539421075, "required_final_county_share_points": 47.63853653942107, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 47.638536539421075, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.29516375532679, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.29516375532679, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.29516375532678, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.07865391656842785, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.999999999999999, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.95212454755546, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.95212454755546, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.95212454755546, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.10597932088248406, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -1.2339487358791104, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.004477080652391851, "criticality_score": 0.0036282549851653395, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 540.9757744880504, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 969.1213670669899, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1192.9206548723266, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Mallory McMorrow": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 3.8181992820054464, "expected_final_county_share_points": 3.818199282005447, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 33.83082315675397, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 33.83082315675397, "required_final_county_share_points": 33.83082315675397, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 33.83082315675397, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 10117.574085784105, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 33.83082315675397, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 33.83082315675397, "required_final_county_share_points": 33.83082315675397, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 33.83082315675397, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 34.49666511029526, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 34.49666511029526, "required_final_county_share_points": 34.49666511029526, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.159018308558073, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999906, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 35.16241197253432, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 35.16241197253432, "required_final_county_share_points": 35.16241197253432, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.213613509684069, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.999999999999993, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -30.012623874748527, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "WELL BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.004477080652391851, "criticality_score": 0.00014917325026548897, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 498.38938596651394, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 926.5349785454534, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1150.3342663507901, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } } } }, { "cid": "name:gd_traverse", "county": "name:gd_traverse", "fips": null, "reporting": 0.0, "current_votes": 0, "current_candidate_votes": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 0, "Haley Stevens": 0, "Mallory McMorrow": 0 }, "current_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": null, "Haley Stevens": null, "Mallory McMorrow": null }, "estimated_remaining_votes": 5156.92134952329, "estimated_final_votes": 5156.92134952329, "turnout_disagreement_votes": 0.0, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 49.53409718759454, "Haley Stevens": 46.64825171952558, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.817651092879882 }, "remaining_sources": [ { "model": "v3", "remaining_votes": 5156.92134952329, "weight": 0.1342208488636769 }, { "model": "histgeo", "remaining_votes": 5156.92134952329, "weight": 0.05994207394479305 }, { "model": "latent", "remaining_votes": 5156.92134952329, "weight": 0.07672787409296966 } ], "share_sources": [ { "model": "v0", "weight": 0.03630604611298715, "source": "statewide raw" }, { "model": "v3", "weight": 0.15004242351696637, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "market", "weight": 0.0786646379365536, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "histgeo", "weight": 0.06573339512824654, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "latent", "weight": 0.08483492578364633, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "batchbias", "weight": 0.020512372723621893, "source": "statewide fallback" } ], "candidate_benchmarks": { "Abdul El-Sayed": { "opponent": "Haley Stevens", "expected_remaining_share_points": 49.53409718759454, "expected_final_county_share_points": 49.53409718759453, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.299895018238345, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.299895018238345, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.299895018238345, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 48.299895018238345, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": -398.17114233904005, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": false }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.299895018238345, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.299895018238345, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.299895018238345, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 48.299895018238345, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.95627723054584, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.95627723054584, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.95627723054583, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.024044322225107804, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999973, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 49.61240402426675, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 49.61240402426675, "required_final_county_share_points": 49.61240402426675, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.003259695682198218, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.9999999999999996, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": 1.2342021693561946, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "ABOVE", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.0042006033089325625, "criticality_score": 0.0034034969417723127, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -477.5890154441389, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -21.263528848949505, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 217.26588889484682, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Haley Stevens": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 46.64825171952558, "expected_final_county_share_points": 46.648251719525575, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 47.88245388888177, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 47.88245388888177, "required_final_county_share_points": 47.88245388888177, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 47.88245388888177, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 494.3534912461601, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 47.88245388888177, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 47.88245388888177, "required_final_county_share_points": 47.88245388888177, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 47.88245388888177, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.53908515549113, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.53908515549113, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.53908515549112, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.07865391656842785, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.999999999999999, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 49.195959090759175, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 49.195959090759175, "required_final_county_share_points": 49.195959090759175, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.10597932088248406, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -1.2342021693561875, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.0042006033089325625, "criticality_score": 0.003403496941772332, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 573.771364351259, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1030.0968509464483, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1268.6262686902448, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Mallory McMorrow": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 3.817651092879882, "expected_final_county_share_points": 3.8176510928798817, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 33.736001006196595, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 33.736001006196595, "required_final_county_share_points": 33.736001006196595, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 33.736001006196595, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 10783.245621876225, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 33.736001006196595, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 33.736001006196595, "required_final_county_share_points": 33.736001006196595, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 33.736001006196595, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 34.397947057536555, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 34.397947057536555, "required_final_county_share_points": 34.397947057536555, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.159018308558073, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999906, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 35.059720483369155, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 35.059720483369155, "required_final_county_share_points": 35.059720483369155, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.213613509684069, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.999999999999993, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -29.918349913316714, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "WELL BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.0042006033089325625, "criticality_score": 0.00014040223879669466, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 530.9407637246132, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 987.2662503198026, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1225.7956680635991, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } } } }, { "cid": "fips:26093", "county": "Livingston", "fips": "26093", "reporting": 80.73, "current_votes": 21490, "current_candidate_votes": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 10902, "Haley Stevens": 9766, "Mallory McMorrow": 822 }, "current_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 50.73057235923686, "Haley Stevens": 45.44439274080968, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.825034899953467 }, "estimated_remaining_votes": 5033.181154902108, "estimated_final_votes": 26523.181154902108, "turnout_disagreement_votes": 0.0, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 50.37111830190255, "Haley Stevens": 45.82128265732378, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.8075990407736717 }, "remaining_sources": [ { "model": "v3", "remaining_votes": 5033.181154902108, "weight": 0.1342208488636769 }, { "model": "histgeo", "remaining_votes": 5033.181154902108, "weight": 0.05994207394479305 }, { "model": "latent", "remaining_votes": 5033.181154902108, "weight": 0.07672787409296966 }, { "model": "batchbias", "remaining_votes": 5033.181154902108, "weight": 0.045123489075924846 } ], "share_sources": [ { "model": "v0", "weight": 0.03630604611298715, "source": "statewide raw" }, { "model": "v1", "weight": 0.14599140026529184, "source": "county live" }, { "model": "v3", "weight": 0.15004242351696637, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "market", "weight": 0.0786646379365536, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "histgeo", "weight": 0.06573339512824654, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "latent", "weight": 0.08483492578364633, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "batchbias", "weight": 0.04883898267529022, "source": "county remaining" } ], "candidate_benchmarks": { "Abdul El-Sayed": { "opponent": "Haley Stevens", "expected_remaining_share_points": 50.37111830190255, "expected_final_county_share_points": 50.66236042881788, "current_county_share_points": 50.73057235923686, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 49.137891042489976, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 49.137891042489976, "required_final_county_share_points": 50.42833660771075, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 49.137891042489976, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": -408.34090436385964, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": false }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 49.137891042489976, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 49.137891042489976, "required_final_county_share_points": 50.42833660771075, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 49.137891042489976, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 49.79389121493866, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 49.79389121493866, "required_final_county_share_points": 50.55282271992699, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.024044322225107804, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999973, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 50.44932631704384, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 50.44932631704384, "required_final_county_share_points": 50.67720160136322, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.003259695682198218, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.9999999999999996, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": 1.2332272594125726, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "ABOVE", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.0040998099410015695, "criticality_score": 0.0033244561452156402, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -489.71125697883093, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -22.1670594364111, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 222.22657731045996, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Haley Stevens": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 45.82128265732378, "expected_final_county_share_points": 45.51591339341137, "current_county_share_points": 45.44439274080968, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 47.05450991673635, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 47.05450991673635, "required_final_county_share_points": 45.749937214518496, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 47.05450991673635, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 504.5333053230859, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 47.05450991673635, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 47.05450991673635, "required_final_county_share_points": 45.749937214518496, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 47.05450991673635, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 47.711069376303136, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 47.711069376303136, "required_final_county_share_points": 45.87452946005891, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.07865391656842785, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.999999999999999, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.368182307201266, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.368182307201266, "required_final_county_share_points": 45.999226735288566, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.10597932088248406, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -1.2332272594125726, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.0040998099410015695, "criticality_score": 0.0033244561452156402, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 585.9036579380572, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1053.447855480477, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1297.841492227348, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Mallory McMorrow": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 3.8075990407736717, "expected_final_county_share_points": 3.8217261777707567, "current_county_share_points": 3.825034899953467, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 34.01402356046048, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 34.01402356046048, "required_final_county_share_points": 9.553859354464047, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 34.01402356046048, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 11048.246598427895, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 34.01402356046048, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 34.01402356046048, "required_final_county_share_points": 9.553859354464047, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 34.01402356046048, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 34.6897929092323, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 34.6897929092323, "required_final_county_share_points": 9.682096971642563, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.159018308558073, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999906, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 35.36571208511669, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 35.36571208511669, "required_final_county_share_points": 9.810363020817796, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.213613509684069, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.999999999999993, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -30.20642451968681, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "WELL BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.0040998099410015695, "criticality_score": 0.0001357264226465979, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 543.8899743215071, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1011.4341718639268, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1255.827808610798, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } } } }, { "cid": "26093", "county": "26093", "fips": null, "reporting": 0.0, "current_votes": 0, "current_candidate_votes": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 0, "Haley Stevens": 0, "Mallory McMorrow": 0 }, "current_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": null, "Haley Stevens": null, "Mallory McMorrow": null }, "estimated_remaining_votes": 5033.181154902108, "estimated_final_votes": 5033.181154902108, "turnout_disagreement_votes": 0.0, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 49.89261988260084, "Haley Stevens": 46.35073676032594, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.7566433570732234 }, "remaining_sources": [ { "model": "market", "remaining_votes": 5033.181154902108, "weight": 0.1780093144963334 } ], "share_sources": [ { "model": "v0", "weight": 0.03630604611298715, "source": "statewide raw" }, { "model": "v3", "weight": 0.06301781787712588, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "market", "weight": 0.18729675699179427, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "histgeo", "weight": 0.02760802595386354, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "latent", "weight": 0.03563066882913146, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "batchbias", "weight": 0.020512372723621893, "source": "statewide fallback" } ], "candidate_benchmarks": { "Abdul El-Sayed": { "opponent": "Haley Stevens", "expected_remaining_share_points": 49.89261988260084, "expected_final_county_share_points": 49.89261988260085, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.65798061049089, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.65798061049089, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.65798061049089, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 48.65798061049089, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": -408.81940278316034, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": false }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.65798061049089, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.65798061049089, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.65798061049089, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 48.65798061049089, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 49.314648965464855, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 49.314648965464855, "required_final_county_share_points": 49.314648965464855, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.024044322225107804, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999973, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 49.97093990702525, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 49.97093990702525, "required_final_county_share_points": 49.97093990702525, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.003259695682198218, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.9999999999999996, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": 1.234639272109952, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "ABOVE", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.0040998099410015695, "criticality_score": 0.003320654083840334, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -490.1897553981326, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -22.64555785571281, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 221.74807889115823, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Haley Stevens": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 46.35073676032594, "expected_final_county_share_points": 46.350736760325944, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 47.5853760324359, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 47.5853760324359, "required_final_county_share_points": 47.585376032435896, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 47.5853760324359, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 505.0627594260872, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 47.5853760324359, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 47.5853760324359, "required_final_county_share_points": 47.585376032435896, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 47.5853760324359, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.24241560836144, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.24241560836144, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.24241560836144, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.07865391656842785, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.999999999999999, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.89982018680944, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.89982018680944, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.89982018680944, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.10597932088248406, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -1.2346392721099662, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.0040998099410015695, "criticality_score": 0.003320654083840296, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 586.4331120410594, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1053.9773095834792, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1298.37094633035, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Mallory McMorrow": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 3.7566433570732234, "expected_final_county_share_points": 3.7566433570732234, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 33.63235898498036, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 33.63235898498036, "required_final_county_share_points": 33.63235898498036, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 33.63235898498036, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 11048.195642744196, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 33.63235898498036, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 33.63235898498036, "required_final_county_share_points": 33.63235898498036, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 33.63235898498036, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 34.302227148997034, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 34.302227148997034, "required_final_county_share_points": 34.302227148997034, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.159018308558073, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999906, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 34.9723095336476, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 34.9723095336476, "required_final_county_share_points": 34.9723095336476, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.213613509684069, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.999999999999993, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -29.875715627907134, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "WELL BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.0040998099410015695, "criticality_score": 0.0001372288447267153, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 543.8390186378067, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1011.3832161802264, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1255.7768529270975, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } } } }, { "cid": "fips:26155", "county": "Shiawassee", "fips": "26155", "reporting": 44.43, "current_votes": 3588, "current_candidate_votes": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 1423, "Haley Stevens": 1922, "Mallory McMorrow": 243 }, "current_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 39.659977703455965, "Haley Stevens": 53.567447045707915, "Mallory McMorrow": 6.77257525083612 }, "estimated_remaining_votes": 4949.64208510183, "estimated_final_votes": 8537.64208510183, "turnout_disagreement_votes": 0.0, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 43.429889037955434, "Haley Stevens": 50.95457332924801, "Mallory McMorrow": 5.61553763279655 }, "remaining_sources": [ { "model": "v3", "remaining_votes": 4949.64208510183, "weight": 0.1342208488636769 }, { "model": "histgeo", "remaining_votes": 4949.64208510183, "weight": 0.05994207394479305 }, { "model": "latent", "remaining_votes": 4949.64208510183, "weight": 0.07672787409296966 }, { "model": "batchbias", "remaining_votes": 4949.64208510183, "weight": 0.045123489075924846 } ], "share_sources": [ { "model": "v0", "weight": 0.03630604611298715, "source": "statewide raw" }, { "model": "v1", "weight": 0.14599140026529184, "source": "county live" }, { "model": "v3", "weight": 0.15004242351696637, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "market", "weight": 0.0786646379365536, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "histgeo", "weight": 0.06573339512824654, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "latent", "weight": 0.08483492578364633, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "batchbias", "weight": 0.04883898267529022, "source": "county remaining" } ], "candidate_benchmarks": { "Abdul El-Sayed": { "opponent": "Haley Stevens", "expected_remaining_share_points": 43.429889037955434, "expected_final_county_share_points": 41.84555911016568, "current_county_share_points": 39.659977703455965, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 42.22875609709287, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 42.22875609709287, "required_final_county_share_points": 41.14921015402125, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 42.22875609709287, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": -423.0241834610745, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": false }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 42.22875609709287, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 42.22875609709287, "required_final_county_share_points": 41.14921015402125, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 42.22875609709287, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 42.866709368289044, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 42.866709368289044, "required_final_county_share_points": 41.519059384987614, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.024044322225107804, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999973, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 43.506326188737916, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 43.506326188737916, "required_final_county_share_points": 41.889873047738504, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.003259695682198218, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.9999999999999996, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": 1.2011329408625642, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "ABOVE", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.004031762656731734, "criticality_score": 0.0033566331582217885, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -505.76788862354414, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -30.33257356562264, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 218.1858901339675, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Haley Stevens": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 50.95457332924801, "expected_final_county_share_points": 52.05265062051997, "current_county_share_points": 53.567447045707915, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 52.15570627011058, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 52.15570627011058, "required_final_county_share_points": 52.74899957666441, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 52.15570627011058, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 517.4086458282779, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 52.15570627011058, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 52.15570627011058, "required_final_county_share_points": 52.74899957666441, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 52.15570627011058, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 52.791996171337395, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 52.791996171337395, "required_final_county_share_points": 53.11788447978459, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.07865391656842785, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.999999999999999, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 53.42662290267446, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 53.42662290267446, "required_final_county_share_points": 53.48580517105342, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.10597932088248406, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -1.2011329408625713, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.004031762656731734, "criticality_score": 0.003356633158221769, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 600.1523509907475, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1075.587666048669, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1324.1061297482593, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Mallory McMorrow": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 5.61553763279655, "expected_final_county_share_points": 6.101790269314338, "current_county_share_points": 6.77257525083612, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 36.42227747418374, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 36.42227747418374, "required_final_county_share_points": 23.96179593642876, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 36.42227747418374, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 11236.460370939063, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 36.42227747418374, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 36.42227747418374, "required_final_county_share_points": 23.96179593642876, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 36.42227747418374, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 36.91962544996733, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 36.91962544996733, "required_final_county_share_points": 24.25013016821558, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.159018308558073, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999906, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 37.41105938436123, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 37.41105938436123, "required_final_county_share_points": 24.53503577323829, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.213613509684069, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.999999999999993, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -30.806739841387188, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "WELL BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.004031762656731734, "criticality_score": 0.00013087274659668072, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 554.8133152942961, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1030.2486303522176, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1278.7670940518078, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } } } }, { "cid": "26155", "county": "26155", "fips": null, "reporting": 0.0, "current_votes": 0, "current_candidate_votes": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 0, "Haley Stevens": 0, "Mallory McMorrow": 0 }, "current_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": null, "Haley Stevens": null, "Mallory McMorrow": null }, "estimated_remaining_votes": 4949.64208510183, "estimated_final_votes": 4949.64208510183, "turnout_disagreement_votes": 0.0, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 45.55019957020254, "Haley Stevens": 49.57893414963119, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.870866280166271 }, "remaining_sources": [ { "model": "market", "remaining_votes": 4949.64208510183, "weight": 0.1780093144963334 } ], "share_sources": [ { "model": "v0", "weight": 0.03630604611298715, "source": "statewide raw" }, { "model": "v3", "weight": 0.06301781787712588, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "market", "weight": 0.18729675699179427, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "histgeo", "weight": 0.02760802595386354, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "latent", "weight": 0.03563066882913146, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "batchbias", "weight": 0.020512372723621893, "source": "statewide fallback" } ], "candidate_benchmarks": { "Abdul El-Sayed": { "opponent": "Haley Stevens", "expected_remaining_share_points": 45.55019957020254, "expected_final_county_share_points": 45.55019957020254, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 44.33286605644045, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 44.33286605644045, "required_final_county_share_points": 44.332866056440444, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 44.33286605644045, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": -420.90387292882684, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": false }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 44.33286605644045, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 44.33286605644045, "required_final_county_share_points": 44.332866056440444, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 44.33286605644045, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 44.97971422163487, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 44.97971422163487, "required_final_county_share_points": 44.97971422163488, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.024044322225107804, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999973, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 45.62758880968153, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 45.62758880968153, "required_final_county_share_points": 45.62758880968153, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.003259695682198218, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.9999999999999996, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": 1.2173335137620853, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "ABOVE", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.004031762656731734, "criticality_score": 0.0033119622610831186, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -503.647578091297, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -28.212263033375535, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 220.30620066621458, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Haley Stevens": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 49.57893414963119, "expected_final_county_share_points": 49.57893414963119, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 50.79626766339326, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 50.79626766339326, "required_final_county_share_points": 50.79626766339326, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 50.79626766339326, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 516.0330066486606, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 50.79626766339326, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 50.79626766339326, "required_final_county_share_points": 50.79626766339326, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 50.79626766339326, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 51.44208544315815, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 51.44208544315815, "required_final_county_share_points": 51.44208544315815, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.07865391656842785, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.999999999999999, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 52.08686889657379, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 52.08686889657379, "required_final_county_share_points": 52.08686889657379, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.10597932088248406, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -1.217333513762071, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.004031762656731734, "criticality_score": 0.003311962261083157, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 598.7767118111308, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1074.2120268690521, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1322.7304905686424, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Mallory McMorrow": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 4.870866280166271, "expected_final_county_share_points": 4.870866280166271, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 35.531045222648785, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 35.531045222648785, "required_final_county_share_points": 35.531045222648785, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 35.531045222648785, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 11235.715699586435, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 35.531045222648785, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 35.531045222648785, "required_final_county_share_points": 35.531045222648785, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 35.531045222648785, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 36.08886038573337, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 36.08886038573337, "required_final_county_share_points": 36.08886038573337, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.159018308558073, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999906, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 36.642256909740425, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 36.642256909740425, "required_final_county_share_points": 36.642256909740425, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.213613509684069, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.999999999999993, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -30.660178942482514, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "WELL BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.004031762656731734, "criticality_score": 0.00013149834070750818, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 554.0686439416659, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1029.5039589995872, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1278.0224226991775, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } } } }, { "cid": "26101", "county": "26101", "fips": null, "reporting": 0.0, "current_votes": 0, "current_candidate_votes": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 0, "Haley Stevens": 0, "Mallory McMorrow": 0 }, "current_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": null, "Haley Stevens": null, "Mallory McMorrow": null }, "estimated_remaining_votes": 3791.242696224088, "estimated_final_votes": 3791.242696224088, "turnout_disagreement_votes": 0.0, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 48.27100217759222, "Haley Stevens": 47.573041127080906, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.155956695326873 }, "remaining_sources": [ { "model": "market", "remaining_votes": 3791.242696224088, "weight": 0.1780093144963334 } ], "share_sources": [ { "model": "v0", "weight": 0.03630604611298715, "source": "statewide raw" }, { "model": "v3", "weight": 0.06301781787712588, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "market", "weight": 0.18729675699179427, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "histgeo", "weight": 0.02760802595386354, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "latent", "weight": 0.03563066882913146, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "batchbias", "weight": 0.020512372723621893, "source": "statewide fallback" } ], "candidate_benchmarks": { "Abdul El-Sayed": { "opponent": "Haley Stevens", "expected_remaining_share_points": 48.27100217759222, "expected_final_county_share_points": 48.27100217759222, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 47.04081622790371, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 47.04081622790371, "required_final_county_share_points": 47.04081622790371, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 47.04081622790371, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": -560.7062891753956, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": false }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 47.04081622790371, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 47.04081622790371, "required_final_county_share_points": 47.04081622790371, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 47.04081622790371, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 47.694883782522766, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 47.694883782522766, "required_final_county_share_points": 47.694883782522766, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.024044322225107804, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999973, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.34910264295541, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.34910264295541, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.34910264295541, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.003259695682198218, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.9999999999999996, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": 1.2301859496885115, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "ABOVE", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.0030881810164115615, "criticality_score": 0.002510336764286328, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -668.7320100708972, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -48.029292595686556, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 276.42301642621965, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Haley Stevens": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 47.573041127080906, "expected_final_county_share_points": 47.573041127080906, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.8032270767694, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.8032270767694, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.8032270767694, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 48.8032270767694, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 656.5503324800687, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.8032270767694, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.8032270767694, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.8032270767694, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 48.8032270767694, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 49.45713689360831, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 49.45713689360831, "required_final_county_share_points": 49.45713689360831, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.07865391656842785, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.999999999999999, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 50.11088253540306, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 50.11088253540306, "required_final_county_share_points": 50.11088253540306, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.10597932088248406, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -1.2301859496884973, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.0030881810164115615, "criticality_score": 0.002510336764286357, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 764.5760533755704, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1385.2787708507808, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1709.7310798726871, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Mallory McMorrow": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 4.155956695326873, "expected_final_county_share_points": 4.155956695326873, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 34.480137780876035, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 34.480137780876035, "required_final_county_share_points": 34.480137780876035, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 34.480137780876035, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 14666.54153637479, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 34.480137780876035, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 34.480137780876035, "required_final_county_share_points": 34.480137780876035, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 34.480137780876035, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 35.10919125118339, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 35.10919125118339, "required_final_county_share_points": 35.10919125118339, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.159018308558073, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999906, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 35.73638403953086, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 35.73638403953086, "required_final_county_share_points": 35.73638403953086, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.213613509684069, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.999999999999993, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -30.324181085549164, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "WELL BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.0030881810164115615, "criticality_score": 0.00010183889245679313, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 721.1589689438163, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1341.861686419027, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1666.3139954409332, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } } } }, { "cid": "fips:26101", "county": "Manistee", "fips": "26101", "reporting": 0.0, "current_votes": 0, "current_candidate_votes": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 0, "Haley Stevens": 0, "Mallory McMorrow": 0 }, "current_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": null, "Haley Stevens": null, "Mallory McMorrow": null }, "estimated_remaining_votes": 3791.2426962240875, "estimated_final_votes": 3791.2426962240875, "turnout_disagreement_votes": 4.547473508864641e-13, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 49.28451540697091, "Haley Stevens": 46.86106919090173, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.854415402127373 }, "remaining_sources": [ { "model": "v3", "remaining_votes": 3791.242696224088, "weight": 0.1342208488636769 }, { "model": "histgeo", "remaining_votes": 3791.242696224088, "weight": 0.05994207394479305 }, { "model": "latent", "remaining_votes": 3791.242696224088, "weight": 0.07672787409296966 }, { "model": "batchbias", "remaining_votes": 3791.242696224088, "weight": 0.045123489075924846 } ], "share_sources": [ { "model": "v0", "weight": 0.03630604611298715, "source": "statewide raw" }, { "model": "v3", "weight": 0.15004242351696637, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "market", "weight": 0.0786646379365536, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "histgeo", "weight": 0.06573339512824654, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "latent", "weight": 0.08483492578364633, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "batchbias", "weight": 0.04883898267529022, "source": "county remaining" } ], "candidate_benchmarks": { "Abdul El-Sayed": { "opponent": "Haley Stevens", "expected_remaining_share_points": 49.28451540697091, "expected_final_county_share_points": 49.284515406970904, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.05060996504737, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.05060996504737, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.05060996504737, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 48.05060996504737, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": -559.6927759460161, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": false }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.05060996504737, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.05060996504737, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.05060996504737, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 48.05060996504737, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.70679650829938, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.70679650829938, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.70679650829938, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.024044322225107804, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999973, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 49.36281367778406, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 49.36281367778406, "required_final_county_share_points": 49.36281367778406, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.003259695682198218, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.9999999999999996, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": 1.2339054419235396, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "ABOVE", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.003088181016411561, "criticality_score": 0.002502769589537902, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -667.7184968415186, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -47.01577936630788, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 277.4365296555984, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Haley Stevens": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 46.86106919090173, "expected_final_county_share_points": 46.86106919090173, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.09497463282526, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.09497463282526, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.09497463282526, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 48.09497463282526, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 655.8383605438887, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.09497463282526, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.09497463282526, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.09497463282526, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 48.09497463282526, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.75132410521113, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.75132410521113, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.75132410521113, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.07865391656842785, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.999999999999999, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 49.407830044085294, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 49.407830044085294, "required_final_county_share_points": 49.407830044085294, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.10597932088248406, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -1.2339054419235325, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.003088181016411561, "criticality_score": 0.002502769589537917, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 763.8640814393913, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1384.5667989146018, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1709.0191079365081, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Mallory McMorrow": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 3.854415402127373, "expected_final_county_share_points": 3.854415402127373, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 33.78188463454098, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 33.78188463454098, "required_final_county_share_points": 33.78188463454098, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 33.78188463454098, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 14666.23999508159, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 33.78188463454098, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 33.78188463454098, "required_final_county_share_points": 33.78188463454098, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 33.78188463454098, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 34.43848971931931, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 34.43848971931931, "required_final_county_share_points": 34.43848971931931, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.159018308558073, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999906, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 35.09468575846744, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 35.09468575846744, "required_final_county_share_points": 35.09468575846744, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.213613509684069, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.999999999999993, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -29.927469232413607, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "WELL BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.003088181016411561, "criticality_score": 0.00010318884608748802, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 720.857427650617, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1341.5601451258276, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1666.012454147734, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } } } }, { "cid": "fips:26061", "county": "Houghton", "fips": "26061", "reporting": 25.489999999999995, "current_votes": 1059, "current_candidate_votes": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 530, "Haley Stevens": 459, "Mallory McMorrow": 70 }, "current_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 50.04721435316336, "Haley Stevens": 43.342776203966004, "Mallory McMorrow": 6.610009442870633 }, "estimated_remaining_votes": 3345.74264210606, "estimated_final_votes": 4404.74264210606, "turnout_disagreement_votes": 0.0, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 49.7863310825937, "Haley Stevens": 44.92337401998788, "Mallory McMorrow": 5.290294897418427 }, "remaining_sources": [ { "model": "v3", "remaining_votes": 3345.74264210606, "weight": 0.1342208488636769 }, { "model": "histgeo", "remaining_votes": 3345.74264210606, "weight": 0.05994207394479305 }, { "model": "latent", "remaining_votes": 3345.74264210606, "weight": 0.07672787409296966 }, { "model": "batchbias", "remaining_votes": 3345.74264210606, "weight": 0.045123489075924846 } ], "share_sources": [ { "model": "v0", "weight": 0.03630604611298715, "source": "statewide raw" }, { "model": "v1", "weight": 0.14599140026529184, "source": "county live" }, { "model": "v3", "weight": 0.15004242351696637, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "market", "weight": 0.0786646379365536, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "histgeo", "weight": 0.06573339512824654, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "latent", "weight": 0.08483492578364633, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "batchbias", "weight": 0.04883898267529022, "source": "county remaining" } ], "candidate_benchmarks": { "Abdul El-Sayed": { "opponent": "Haley Stevens", "expected_remaining_share_points": 49.7863310825937, "expected_final_county_share_points": 49.84905333585142, "current_county_share_points": 50.04721435316336, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.57247215638126, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.57247215638126, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.92703361735359, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 48.57247215638126, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": -640.2789115192775, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": false }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.57247215638126, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.57247215638126, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.92703361735359, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 48.57247215638126, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 49.21820101094869, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 49.21820101094869, "required_final_county_share_points": 49.41751461465689, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.024044322225107804, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999973, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 49.86330229641139, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 49.86330229641139, "required_final_county_share_points": 49.90751892469712, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.003259695682198218, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.9999999999999996, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": 1.2138589262124384, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "ABOVE", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.002725296094455012, "criticality_score": 0.0022451505983143018, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -762.6887227806749, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -59.33676302771722, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 308.3177694434474, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Haley Stevens": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 44.92337401998788, "expected_final_county_share_points": 44.54336246808327, "current_county_share_points": 43.342776203966004, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 46.13723294620032, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 46.13723294620032, "required_final_county_share_points": 45.4653821865811, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 46.13723294620032, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 734.988616621859, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 46.13723294620032, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 46.13723294620032, "required_final_county_share_points": 45.4653821865811, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 46.13723294620032, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 46.78358387273388, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 46.78358387273388, "required_final_county_share_points": 45.95633569564561, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.07865391656842785, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.999999999999999, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 47.430551339733086, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 47.430551339733086, "required_final_county_share_points": 46.447757514869004, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.10597932088248406, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -1.2138589262124384, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.002725296094455012, "criticality_score": 0.0022451505983143018, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 857.3984278832565, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1560.750387636214, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1928.404920107379, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Mallory McMorrow": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 5.290294897418427, "expected_final_county_share_points": 5.607584196065318, "current_county_share_points": 6.610009442870633, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 38.73918689798017, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 38.73918689798017, "required_final_county_share_points": 31.014604172145237, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 38.73918689798017, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 16620.035714524045, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 38.73918689798017, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 38.73918689798017, "required_final_county_share_points": 31.014604172145237, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 38.73918689798017, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 39.350124183799515, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 39.350124183799515, "required_final_county_share_points": 31.47865828265758, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.159018308558073, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999906, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 39.956306617179415, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 39.956306617179415, "required_final_county_share_points": 31.939100715063805, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.213613509684069, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.999999999999993, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -33.44889200056174, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "WELL BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.002725296094455012, "criticality_score": 8.147642362590794e-05, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 817.7653487606871, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1521.1173085136445, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1888.7718409848094, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } } } }, { "cid": "26061", "county": "26061", "fips": null, "reporting": 0.0, "current_votes": 0, "current_candidate_votes": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 0, "Haley Stevens": 0, "Mallory McMorrow": 0 }, "current_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": null, "Haley Stevens": null, "Mallory McMorrow": null }, "estimated_remaining_votes": 3345.74264210606, "estimated_final_votes": 3345.74264210606, "turnout_disagreement_votes": 0.0, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 49.31246004324791, "Haley Stevens": 45.65098547155028, "Mallory McMorrow": 5.0365544852018145 }, "remaining_sources": [ { "model": "market", "remaining_votes": 3345.74264210606, "weight": 0.1780093144963334 } ], "share_sources": [ { "model": "v0", "weight": 0.03630604611298715, "source": "statewide raw" }, { "model": "v3", "weight": 0.06301781787712588, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "market", "weight": 0.18729675699179427, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "histgeo", "weight": 0.02760802595386354, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "latent", "weight": 0.03563066882913146, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "batchbias", "weight": 0.020512372723621893, "source": "statewide fallback" } ], "candidate_benchmarks": { "Abdul El-Sayed": { "opponent": "Haley Stevens", "expected_remaining_share_points": 49.31246004324791, "expected_final_county_share_points": 49.31246004324791, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.09434629369606, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.09434629369606, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.09434629369606, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 48.09434629369606, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": -640.7527825586218, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": false }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.09434629369606, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.09434629369606, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.09434629369606, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 48.09434629369606, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.74223888666137, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.74223888666137, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.74223888666137, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.024044322225107804, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999973, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 49.38972805622101, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 49.38972805622101, "required_final_county_share_points": 49.38972805622101, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.003259695682198218, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.9999999999999996, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": 1.218113749551847, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "ABOVE", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.002725296094455012, "criticality_score": 0.0022373083757224383, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -763.1625938200207, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -59.810634067063006, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 307.84389840410165, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Haley Stevens": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 45.65098547155028, "expected_final_county_share_points": 45.650985471550285, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 46.869099221102125, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 46.869099221102125, "required_final_county_share_points": 46.869099221102125, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 46.869099221102125, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 735.7162280734199, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 46.869099221102125, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 46.869099221102125, "required_final_county_share_points": 46.869099221102125, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 46.869099221102125, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 47.51738918315602, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 47.51738918315602, "required_final_county_share_points": 47.51738918315602, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.07865391656842785, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.999999999999999, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.16607043322308, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.16607043322308, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.166070433223084, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.10597932088248406, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -1.218113749551847, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.002725296094455012, "criticality_score": 0.0022373083757224383, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 858.1260393348189, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1561.4779990877764, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1929.1325315589413, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Mallory McMorrow": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 5.0365544852018145, "expected_final_county_share_points": 5.0365544852018145, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 37.774917004629025, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 37.774917004629025, "required_final_county_share_points": 37.774917004629025, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 37.774917004629025, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 16619.78197411183, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 37.774917004629025, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 37.774917004629025, "required_final_county_share_points": 37.774917004629025, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 37.774917004629025, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 38.387639024908296, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 38.387639024908296, "required_final_county_share_points": 38.38763902490829, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.159018308558073, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999906, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 38.99612888596587, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 38.99612888596587, "required_final_county_share_points": 38.99612888596587, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.213613509684069, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.999999999999993, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -32.73836251942721, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "WELL BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.002725296094455012, "criticality_score": 8.324472834699044e-05, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 817.5116083484704, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1520.863568101428, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1888.5181005725929, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } } } }, { "cid": "26009", "county": "26009", "fips": null, "reporting": 0.0, "current_votes": 0, "current_candidate_votes": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 0, "Haley Stevens": 0, "Mallory McMorrow": 0 }, "current_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": null, "Haley Stevens": null, "Mallory McMorrow": null }, "estimated_remaining_votes": 3308.801867612957, "estimated_final_votes": 3308.801867612957, "turnout_disagreement_votes": 0.0, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 48.27100217759222, "Haley Stevens": 47.573041127080906, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.155956695326873 }, "remaining_sources": [ { "model": "market", "remaining_votes": 3308.801867612957, "weight": 0.1780093144963334 } ], "share_sources": [ { "model": "v0", "weight": 0.03630604611298715, "source": "statewide raw" }, { "model": "v3", "weight": 0.06301781787712588, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "market", "weight": 0.18729675699179427, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "histgeo", "weight": 0.02760802595386354, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "latent", "weight": 0.03563066882913146, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "batchbias", "weight": 0.020512372723621893, "source": "statewide fallback" } ], "candidate_benchmarks": { "Abdul El-Sayed": { "opponent": "Haley Stevens", "expected_remaining_share_points": 48.27100217759222, "expected_final_county_share_points": 48.27100217759222, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 47.04081622790371, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 47.04081622790371, "required_final_county_share_points": 47.04081622790371, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 47.04081622790371, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": -649.498402091374, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": false }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 47.04081622790371, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 47.04081622790371, "required_final_county_share_points": 47.04081622790371, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 47.04081622790371, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 47.694883782522766, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 47.694883782522766, "required_final_county_share_points": 47.694883782522766, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.024044322225107804, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999973, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.34910264295541, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.34910264295541, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.3491026429554, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.003259695682198218, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.9999999999999996, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": 1.2301859496885115, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "ABOVE", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.00269520575003186, "criticality_score": 0.0021908929708669635, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -773.2748449658094, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -62.07038537330685, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 309.6887879070648, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Haley Stevens": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 47.573041127080906, "expected_final_county_share_points": 47.573041127080906, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.8032270767694, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.8032270767694, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.803227076769396, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 48.8032270767694, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 745.3424453960473, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.8032270767694, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.8032270767694, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.803227076769396, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 48.8032270767694, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 49.45713689360831, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 49.45713689360831, "required_final_county_share_points": 49.45713689360831, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.07865391656842785, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.999999999999999, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 50.11088253540306, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 50.11088253540306, "required_final_county_share_points": 50.11088253540306, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.10597932088248406, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -1.2301859496884973, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.00269520575003186, "criticality_score": 0.002190892970866989, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 869.1188882704826, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1580.3233478629847, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1952.0825211433566, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Mallory McMorrow": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 4.155956695326873, "expected_final_county_share_points": 4.155956695326873, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 34.480137780876035, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 34.480137780876035, "required_final_county_share_points": 34.480137780876035, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 34.480137780876035, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 16804.39497441688, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 34.480137780876035, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 34.480137780876035, "required_final_county_share_points": 34.480137780876035, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 34.480137780876035, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 35.10919125118339, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 35.10919125118339, "required_final_county_share_points": 35.10919125118339, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.159018308558073, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999906, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 35.73638403953086, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 35.73638403953086, "required_final_county_share_points": 35.73638403953086, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.213613509684069, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.999999999999993, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -30.324181085549164, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "WELL BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.00269520575003186, "criticality_score": 8.887975383171178e-05, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 825.7018038387284, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1536.9062634312309, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1908.6654367116028, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } } } }, { "cid": "fips:26009", "county": "Antrim", "fips": "26009", "reporting": 0.0, "current_votes": 0, "current_candidate_votes": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 0, "Haley Stevens": 0, "Mallory McMorrow": 0 }, "current_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": null, "Haley Stevens": null, "Mallory McMorrow": null }, "estimated_remaining_votes": 3308.801867612957, "estimated_final_votes": 3308.801867612957, "turnout_disagreement_votes": 0.0, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 49.37396011422278, "Haley Stevens": 46.785796448893414, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.8402434368838043 }, "remaining_sources": [ { "model": "v3", "remaining_votes": 3308.801867612957, "weight": 0.1342208488636769 }, { "model": "histgeo", "remaining_votes": 3308.801867612957, "weight": 0.05994207394479305 }, { "model": "latent", "remaining_votes": 3308.801867612957, "weight": 0.07672787409296966 }, { "model": "batchbias", "remaining_votes": 3308.801867612957, "weight": 0.045123489075924846 } ], "share_sources": [ { "model": "v0", "weight": 0.03630604611298715, "source": "statewide raw" }, { "model": "v3", "weight": 0.15004242351696637, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "market", "weight": 0.0786646379365536, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "histgeo", "weight": 0.06573339512824654, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "latent", "weight": 0.08483492578364633, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "batchbias", "weight": 0.04883898267529022, "source": "county remaining" } ], "candidate_benchmarks": { "Abdul El-Sayed": { "opponent": "Haley Stevens", "expected_remaining_share_points": 49.37396011422278, "expected_final_county_share_points": 49.37396011422278, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.13992863163865, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.13992863163865, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.13992863163864, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 48.13992863163865, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": -648.3954441547453, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": false }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.13992863163865, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.13992863163865, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.13992863163864, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 48.13992863163865, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.796195691789165, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.796195691789165, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.796195691789165, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.024044322225107804, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999973, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 49.45226272727665, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 49.45226272727665, "required_final_county_share_points": 49.45226272727665, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.003259695682198218, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.9999999999999996, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": 1.234031482584136, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "ABOVE", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.00269520575003186, "criticality_score": 0.002184065632092252, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -772.1718870291788, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -60.96742743667629, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 310.79174584369537, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Haley Stevens": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 46.785796448893414, "expected_final_county_share_points": 46.785796448893414, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.01982793147754, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.01982793147754, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.01982793147754, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 48.01982793147754, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 744.5552007178616, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.01982793147754, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.01982793147754, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.01982793147754, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 48.01982793147754, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.67628859629012, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.67628859629012, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.67628859629012, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.07865391656842785, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.999999999999999, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 49.332936426552436, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 49.332936426552436, "required_final_county_share_points": 49.332936426552436, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.10597932088248406, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -1.234031482584129, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.00269520575003186, "criticality_score": 0.0021840656320922646, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 868.331643592295, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1579.5361031847974, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1951.2952764651693, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Mallory McMorrow": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 3.8402434368838043, "expected_final_county_share_points": 3.840243436883804, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 33.7619486973838, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 33.7619486973838, "required_final_county_share_points": 33.7619486973838, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 33.7619486973838, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 16804.07926115844, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 33.7619486973838, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 33.7619486973838, "required_final_county_share_points": 33.7619486973838, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 33.7619486973838, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 34.42050589917526, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 34.42050589917526, "required_final_county_share_points": 34.42050589917526, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.159018308558073, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999906, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 35.07874229361935, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 35.07874229361935, "required_final_county_share_points": 35.07874229361935, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.213613509684069, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.999999999999993, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -29.921705260499998, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "WELL BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.00269520575003186, "criticality_score": 9.007527233382095e-05, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 825.3860905802854, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1536.5905501727877, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1908.3497234531596, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } } } }, { "cid": "26123", "county": "26123", "fips": null, "reporting": 0.0, "current_votes": 0, "current_candidate_votes": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 0, "Haley Stevens": 0, "Mallory McMorrow": 0 }, "current_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": null, "Haley Stevens": null, "Mallory McMorrow": null }, "estimated_remaining_votes": 3200.745116245081, "estimated_final_votes": 3200.745116245081, "turnout_disagreement_votes": 0.0, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 48.89969721340125, "Haley Stevens": 47.0326001428678, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.067702643730954 }, "remaining_sources": [ { "model": "market", "remaining_votes": 3200.745116245081, "weight": 0.1780093144963334 } ], "share_sources": [ { "model": "v0", "weight": 0.03630604611298715, "source": "statewide raw" }, { "model": "v3", "weight": 0.06301781787712588, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "market", "weight": 0.18729675699179427, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "histgeo", "weight": 0.02760802595386354, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "latent", "weight": 0.03563066882913146, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "batchbias", "weight": 0.020512372723621893, "source": "statewide fallback" } ], "candidate_benchmarks": { "Abdul El-Sayed": { "opponent": "Haley Stevens", "expected_remaining_share_points": 48.89969721340125, "expected_final_county_share_points": 48.89969721340125, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 47.66839461620564, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 47.66839461620564, "required_final_county_share_points": 47.66839461620564, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 47.66839461620564, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": -672.426314123878, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": false }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 47.66839461620564, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 47.66839461620564, "required_final_county_share_points": 47.66839461620564, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 47.66839461620564, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.323151754974845, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.323151754974845, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.323151754974845, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.024044322225107804, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999973, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.977842575966974, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.977842575966974, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.977842575966974, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.003259695682198218, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.9999999999999996, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": 1.231302597195608, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "ABOVE", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.0026071874312358283, "criticality_score": 0.002117422181333744, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -800.3814340960289, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -65.16680166225132, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 319.1429144126714, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Haley Stevens": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 47.0326001428678, "expected_final_county_share_points": 47.03260014286779, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.263902740063415, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.263902740063415, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.263902740063415, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 48.263902740063415, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 768.358611480147, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.263902740063415, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.263902740063415, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.263902740063415, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 48.263902740063415, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.91871971216041, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.91871971216041, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.91871971216041, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.07865391656842785, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.999999999999999, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 49.57359001921479, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 49.57359001921479, "required_final_county_share_points": 49.57359001921479, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.10597932088248406, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -1.231302597195615, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.0026071874312358283, "criticality_score": 0.0021174221813337313, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 896.3137314522979, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1631.5283638860753, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 2015.8380799609984, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Mallory McMorrow": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 4.067702643730954, "expected_final_county_share_points": 4.067702643730953, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 34.42310697630675, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 34.42310697630675, "required_final_county_share_points": 34.42310697630675, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 34.42310697630675, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 17371.480670344943, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 34.42310697630675, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 34.42310697630675, "required_final_county_share_points": 34.42310697630675, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 34.42310697630675, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 35.06567287040493, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 35.06567287040493, "required_final_county_share_points": 35.06567287040493, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.159018308558073, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999906, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 35.706869543417156, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 35.706869543417156, "required_final_county_share_points": 35.706869543417156, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.213613509684069, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.999999999999993, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -30.355404332575795, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "WELL BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.0026071874312358283, "criticality_score": 8.588874003031923e-05, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 853.3488339531611, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1588.5634663869384, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1972.8731824618615, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } } } }, { "cid": "fips:26123", "county": "Newaygo", "fips": "26123", "reporting": 11.7, "current_votes": 474, "current_candidate_votes": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 183, "Haley Stevens": 266, "Mallory McMorrow": 25 }, "current_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 38.607594936708864, "Haley Stevens": 56.118143459915615, "Mallory McMorrow": 5.274261603375527 }, "estimated_remaining_votes": 3200.745116245081, "estimated_final_votes": 3674.745116245081, "turnout_disagreement_votes": 0.0, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 44.644473190486266, "Haley Stevens": 50.88909420569647, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.466432603817268 }, "remaining_sources": [ { "model": "v3", "remaining_votes": 3200.745116245081, "weight": 0.1342208488636769 }, { "model": "histgeo", "remaining_votes": 3200.745116245081, "weight": 0.05994207394479305 }, { "model": "latent", "remaining_votes": 3200.745116245081, "weight": 0.07672787409296966 }, { "model": "batchbias", "remaining_votes": 3200.745116245081, "weight": 0.045123489075924846 } ], "share_sources": [ { "model": "v0", "weight": 0.03630604611298715, "source": "statewide raw" }, { "model": "v1", "weight": 0.14599140026529184, "source": "county live" }, { "model": "v3", "weight": 0.15004242351696637, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "market", "weight": 0.0786646379365536, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "histgeo", "weight": 0.06573339512824654, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "latent", "weight": 0.08483492578364633, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "batchbias", "weight": 0.04883898267529022, "source": "county remaining" } ], "candidate_benchmarks": { "Abdul El-Sayed": { "opponent": "Haley Stevens", "expected_remaining_share_points": 44.644473190486266, "expected_final_county_share_points": 43.86578509055774, "current_county_share_points": 38.607594936708864, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 43.42571969093881, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 43.42571969093881, "required_final_county_share_points": 42.804236823077055, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 43.42571969093881, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": -676.6815381467919, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": false }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 43.42571969093881, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 43.42571969093881, "required_final_county_share_points": 42.804236823077055, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 43.42571969093881, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 44.07314334632355, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 44.07314334632355, "required_final_county_share_points": 43.368150247698914, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.024044322225107804, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999973, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 44.72200133161808, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 44.72200133161808, "required_final_county_share_points": 43.933312990112526, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.003259695682198218, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.9999999999999996, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": 1.2187534995474536, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "ABOVE", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.0026071874312358283, "criticality_score": 0.0021392245701890716, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -804.636658118944, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -69.42202568516629, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 314.8876903897565, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Haley Stevens": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 50.88909420569647, "expected_final_county_share_points": 51.563581624032715, "current_county_share_points": 56.118143459915615, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 52.10784770524393, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 52.10784770524393, "required_final_county_share_points": 52.62512989151341, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 52.10784770524393, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 772.2151055429746, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 52.10784770524393, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 52.10784770524393, "required_final_county_share_points": 52.62512989151341, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 52.10784770524393, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 52.75383538188565, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 52.75383538188565, "required_final_county_share_points": 53.18779256219091, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.07865391656842785, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.999999999999999, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 53.39838545532275, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 53.39838545532275, "required_final_county_share_points": 53.74920306399932, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.10597932088248406, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -1.2187534995474536, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.0026071874312358283, "criticality_score": 0.0021392245701890716, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 900.1702255151266, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1635.384857948904, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 2019.694574023827, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Mallory McMorrow": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 4.466432603817268, "expected_final_county_share_points": 4.570633285409541, "current_county_share_points": 5.274261603375527, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 33.918010935613374, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 33.918010935613374, "required_final_county_share_points": 30.223295586932515, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 33.918010935613374, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 17371.879400305035, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 33.918010935613374, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 33.918010935613374, "required_final_county_share_points": 30.223295586932515, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 33.918010935613374, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 34.47624510714461, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 34.47624510714461, "required_final_county_share_points": 30.70952394882648, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.159018308558073, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999906, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 35.0308823102411, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 35.0308823102411, "required_final_county_share_points": 31.192619309985268, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.213613509684069, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.999999999999993, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -29.451578331796107, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "WELL BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.0026071874312358283, "criticality_score": 8.85245402424186e-05, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 853.7475639132474, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1588.962196347025, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1973.271912421948, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } } } }, { "cid": "fips:26019", "county": "Benzie", "fips": "26019", "reporting": 24.01, "current_votes": 765, "current_candidate_votes": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 438, "Haley Stevens": 297, "Mallory McMorrow": 30 }, "current_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 57.25490196078431, "Haley Stevens": 38.82352941176471, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.9215686274509802 }, "estimated_remaining_votes": 3174.6120880113112, "estimated_final_votes": 3939.6120880113112, "turnout_disagreement_votes": 4.547473508864641e-13, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 53.493082637610456, "Haley Stevens": 42.63403696904373, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.872880393345816 }, "remaining_sources": [ { "model": "v3", "remaining_votes": 3174.612088011311, "weight": 0.1342208488636769 }, { "model": "histgeo", "remaining_votes": 3174.612088011311, "weight": 0.05994207394479305 }, { "model": "latent", "remaining_votes": 3174.612088011311, "weight": 0.07672787409296966 }, { "model": "batchbias", "remaining_votes": 3174.612088011311, "weight": 0.045123489075924846 } ], "share_sources": [ { "model": "v0", "weight": 0.03630604611298715, "source": "statewide raw" }, { "model": "v1", "weight": 0.14599140026529184, "source": "county live" }, { "model": "v3", "weight": 0.15004242351696637, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "market", "weight": 0.0786646379365536, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "histgeo", "weight": 0.06573339512824654, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "latent", "weight": 0.08483492578364633, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "batchbias", "weight": 0.04883898267529022, "source": "county remaining" } ], "candidate_benchmarks": { "Abdul El-Sayed": { "opponent": "Haley Stevens", "expected_remaining_share_points": 53.493082637610456, "expected_final_county_share_points": 54.22355856212736, "current_county_share_points": 57.25490196078431, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 52.27162982040284, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 52.27162982040284, "required_final_county_share_points": 53.23928935190667, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 52.27162982040284, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": -673.7707984290821, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": false }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 52.27162982040284, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 52.27162982040284, "required_final_county_share_points": 53.23928935190667, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 52.27162982040284, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 52.9218803291313, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 52.9218803291313, "required_final_county_share_points": 53.76327320593299, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.024044322225107804, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999973, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 53.57040495707894, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 53.57040495707894, "required_final_county_share_points": 54.285866313391686, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.003259695682198218, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.9999999999999996, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": 1.221452817207613, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "ABOVE", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.0025859006057384125, "criticality_score": 0.002117069582474819, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -802.7792296941349, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -61.51239805786878, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 325.96090978268273, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Haley Stevens": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 42.63403696904373, "expected_final_county_share_points": 41.89410668753473, "current_county_share_points": 38.82352941176471, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 43.855489786251326, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 43.855489786251326, "required_final_county_share_points": 42.8783758977554, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 43.855489786251326, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 769.8979180357364, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 43.855489786251326, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 43.855489786251326, "required_final_county_share_points": 42.8783758977554, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 43.855489786251326, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 44.50746659977364, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 44.50746659977364, "required_final_county_share_points": 43.40375084002691, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.07865391656842785, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.999999999999999, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 45.16117009848173, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 45.16117009848173, "required_final_county_share_points": 43.9305171770704, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.10597932088248406, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -1.2214528172075987, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.0025859006057384125, "criticality_score": 0.0021170695824748436, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 898.906349300789, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1640.1731809370551, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 2027.6464887776067, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Mallory McMorrow": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 3.872880393345816, "expected_final_county_share_points": 3.882334750337916, "current_county_share_points": 3.9215686274509802, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 35.43370505374941, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 35.43370505374941, "required_final_county_share_points": 29.31462941189167, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 35.43370505374941, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 17514.25232111546, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 35.43370505374941, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 35.43370505374941, "required_final_county_share_points": 29.31462941189167, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 35.43370505374941, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 36.15723776745562, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 36.15723776745562, "required_final_county_share_points": 29.897665418404394, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.159018308558073, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999906, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 36.88171474701345, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 36.88171474701345, "required_final_county_share_points": 30.48146233175766, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.213613509684069, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.999999999999993, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -31.56082466040359, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "WELL BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.0025859006057384125, "criticality_score": 8.193387319763857e-05, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 860.1451927250911, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1601.4120243613572, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1988.8853322019088, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } } } }, { "cid": "26019", "county": "26019", "fips": null, "reporting": 0.0, "current_votes": 0, "current_candidate_votes": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 0, "Haley Stevens": 0, "Mallory McMorrow": 0 }, "current_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": null, "Haley Stevens": null, "Mallory McMorrow": null }, "estimated_remaining_votes": 3174.6120880113112, "estimated_final_votes": 3174.6120880113112, "turnout_disagreement_votes": 4.547473508864641e-13, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 50.730017324504615, "Haley Stevens": 45.27172579179482, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.9982568837005563 }, "remaining_sources": [ { "model": "market", "remaining_votes": 3174.612088011311, "weight": 0.1780093144963334 } ], "share_sources": [ { "model": "v0", "weight": 0.03630604611298715, "source": "statewide raw" }, { "model": "v3", "weight": 0.06301781787712588, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "market", "weight": 0.18729675699179427, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "histgeo", "weight": 0.02760802595386354, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "latent", "weight": 0.03563066882913146, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "batchbias", "weight": 0.020512372723621893, "source": "statewide fallback" } ], "candidate_benchmarks": { "Abdul El-Sayed": { "opponent": "Haley Stevens", "expected_remaining_share_points": 50.730017324504615, "expected_final_county_share_points": 50.73001732450461, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 49.50016019836641, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 49.50016019836641, "required_final_county_share_points": 49.50016019836641, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 49.50016019836641, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": -676.5338637421879, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": false }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 49.50016019836641, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 49.50016019836641, "required_final_county_share_points": 49.50016019836641, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 49.50016019836641, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 50.15444288185997, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 50.15444288185997, "required_final_county_share_points": 50.15444288185997, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.024044322225107804, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999973, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 50.80799124524014, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 50.80799124524014, "required_final_county_share_points": 50.80799124524014, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.003259695682198218, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.9999999999999996, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": 1.2298571261382065, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "ABOVE", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.0025859006057384125, "criticality_score": 0.0021026024493253368, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -805.5422950072407, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -64.27546337097462, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 323.19784446957686, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Haley Stevens": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 45.27172579179482, "expected_final_county_share_points": 45.27172579179482, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 46.501582917933014, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 46.501582917933014, "required_final_county_share_points": 46.501582917933014, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 46.501582917933014, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 772.5356068584873, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 46.501582917933014, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 46.501582917933014, "required_final_county_share_points": 46.501582917933014, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 46.501582917933014, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 47.15659466006662, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 47.15659466006662, "required_final_county_share_points": 47.15659466006661, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.07865391656842785, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.999999999999999, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 47.8123301615876, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 47.8123301615876, "required_final_county_share_points": 47.8123301615876, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.10597932088248406, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -1.2298571261381923, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.0025859006057384125, "criticality_score": 0.002102602449325361, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 901.5440381235401, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1642.810869759806, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 2030.2841776003577, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Mallory McMorrow": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 3.9982568837005563, "expected_final_county_share_points": 3.9982568837005563, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 34.890156189751885, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 34.890156189751885, "required_final_county_share_points": 34.890156189751885, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 34.890156189751885, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 17514.37769760581, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 34.890156189751885, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 34.890156189751885, "required_final_county_share_points": 34.890156189751885, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 34.890156189751885, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 35.56490834428867, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 35.56490834428867, "required_final_county_share_points": 35.56490834428867, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.159018308558073, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999906, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 36.23911150956503, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 36.23911150956503, "required_final_county_share_points": 36.23911150956503, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.213613509684069, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.999999999999993, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -30.89189930605133, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "WELL BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.0025859006057384125, "criticality_score": 8.370804851198863e-05, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 860.2705692154459, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1601.537400851712, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1989.0107086922635, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } } } }, { "cid": "26047", "county": "26047", "fips": null, "reporting": 0.0, "current_votes": 0, "current_candidate_votes": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 0, "Haley Stevens": 0, "Mallory McMorrow": 0 }, "current_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": null, "Haley Stevens": null, "Mallory McMorrow": null }, "estimated_remaining_votes": 2782.232900489893, "estimated_final_votes": 2782.232900489893, "turnout_disagreement_votes": 0.0, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 50.710906450832304, "Haley Stevens": 44.847730416503666, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.441363132664023 }, "remaining_sources": [ { "model": "market", "remaining_votes": 2782.232900489893, "weight": 0.1780093144963334 } ], "share_sources": [ { "model": "v0", "weight": 0.03630604611298715, "source": "statewide raw" }, { "model": "v3", "weight": 0.06301781787712588, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "market", "weight": 0.18729675699179427, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "histgeo", "weight": 0.02760802595386354, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "latent", "weight": 0.03563066882913146, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "batchbias", "weight": 0.020512372723621893, "source": "statewide fallback" } ], "candidate_benchmarks": { "Abdul El-Sayed": { "opponent": "Haley Stevens", "expected_remaining_share_points": 50.710906450832304, "expected_final_county_share_points": 50.710906450832304, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 49.48723771948419, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 49.48723771948419, "required_final_county_share_points": 49.48723771948419, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 49.48723771948419, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": -779.119230200134, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": false }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 49.48723771948419, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 49.48723771948419, "required_final_county_share_points": 49.48723771948419, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 49.48723771948419, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 50.13826343147477, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 50.13826343147477, "required_final_county_share_points": 50.13826343147477, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.024044322225107804, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999973, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 50.78847847817567, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 50.78847847817567, "required_final_county_share_points": 50.78847847817567, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.003259695682198218, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.9999999999999996, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": 1.2236687313481127, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "ABOVE", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.002266285625841326, "criticality_score": 0.0018520417885848606, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -926.3217614035068, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -80.51383362723013, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 361.6049575910578, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Haley Stevens": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 44.847730416503666, "expected_final_county_share_points": 44.847730416503666, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 46.07139914785179, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 46.07139914785179, "required_final_county_share_points": 46.07139914785179, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 46.07139914785179, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 874.6778670674698, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 46.07139914785179, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 46.07139914785179, "required_final_county_share_points": 46.07139914785179, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 46.07139914785179, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 46.723230573520766, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 46.723230573520766, "required_final_county_share_points": 46.723230573520766, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.07865391656842785, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.999999999999999, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 47.3758627214757, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 47.3758627214757, "required_final_county_share_points": 47.3758627214757, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.10597932088248406, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -1.223668731348127, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.002266285625841326, "criticality_score": 0.0018520417885848392, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1021.8803982708428, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1867.6883260471193, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 2309.807117265407, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Mallory McMorrow": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 4.441363132664023, "expected_final_county_share_points": 4.441363132664024, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 36.484377830344414, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 36.484377830344414, "required_final_county_share_points": 36.484377830344414, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 36.484377830344414, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 19984.3151646369, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 36.484377830344414, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 36.484377830344414, "required_final_county_share_points": 36.484377830344414, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 36.484377830344414, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 37.14239258373468, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 37.14239258373468, "required_final_county_share_points": 37.14239258373469, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.159018308558073, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999906, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 37.79819287111364, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 37.79819287111364, "required_final_county_share_points": 37.79819287111364, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.213613509684069, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.999999999999993, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -32.04301469768039, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "WELL BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.002266285625841326, "criticality_score": 7.072635478350867e-05, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 981.4740309870032, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1827.2819587632796, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 2269.4007499815675, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } } } }, { "cid": "fips:26047", "county": "Emmet", "fips": "26047", "reporting": 50.16, "current_votes": 2353, "current_candidate_votes": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 1274, "Haley Stevens": 953, "Mallory McMorrow": 126 }, "current_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 54.14364640883977, "Haley Stevens": 40.50148746281343, "Mallory McMorrow": 5.354866128346791 }, "estimated_remaining_votes": 2782.232900489893, "estimated_final_votes": 5135.232900489893, "turnout_disagreement_votes": 0.0, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 52.46308691817604, "Haley Stevens": 42.73358357877251, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.803329503051446 }, "remaining_sources": [ { "model": "v3", "remaining_votes": 2782.232900489893, "weight": 0.1342208488636769 }, { "model": "histgeo", "remaining_votes": 2782.232900489893, "weight": 0.05994207394479305 }, { "model": "latent", "remaining_votes": 2782.232900489893, "weight": 0.07672787409296966 }, { "model": "batchbias", "remaining_votes": 2782.232900489893, "weight": 0.045123489075924846 } ], "share_sources": [ { "model": "v0", "weight": 0.03630604611298715, "source": "statewide raw" }, { "model": "v1", "weight": 0.14599140026529184, "source": "county live" }, { "model": "v3", "weight": 0.15004242351696637, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "market", "weight": 0.0786646379365536, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "histgeo", "weight": 0.06573339512824654, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "latent", "weight": 0.08483492578364633, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "batchbias", "weight": 0.04883898267529022, "source": "county remaining" } ], "candidate_benchmarks": { "Abdul El-Sayed": { "opponent": "Haley Stevens", "expected_remaining_share_points": 52.46308691817604, "expected_final_county_share_points": 53.23313115144821, "current_county_share_points": 54.14364640883977, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 51.250955667579326, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 51.250955667579326, "required_final_county_share_points": 52.57640700466211, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 51.250955667579326, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": -777.3670497327901, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": false }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 51.250955667579326, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 51.250955667579326, "required_final_county_share_points": 52.57640700466211, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 51.250955667579326, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 51.89616018151322, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 51.89616018151322, "required_final_county_share_points": 52.92597425136678, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.024044322225107804, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999973, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 52.53984175105116, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 52.53984175105116, "required_final_county_share_points": 53.274716377558676, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.003259695682198218, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.9999999999999996, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": 1.2121312505967126, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "ABOVE", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.002266285625841326, "criticality_score": 0.001869670157192689, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -924.5695809361631, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -78.76165315988641, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 363.3571380584016, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Haley Stevens": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 42.73358357877251, "expected_final_county_share_points": 41.71082136669237, "current_county_share_points": 40.50148746281343, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 43.94571482936922, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 43.94571482936922, "required_final_county_share_points": 42.36754551347848, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 43.94571482936922, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 872.5637202297387, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 43.94571482936922, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 43.94571482936922, "required_final_county_share_points": 42.36754551347848, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 43.94571482936922, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 44.59244127745252, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 44.59244127745252, "required_final_county_share_points": 42.717937333351465, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.07865391656842785, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.999999999999999, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 45.240688602963054, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 45.240688602963054, "required_final_county_share_points": 43.069153153868186, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.10597932088248406, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -1.2121312505967126, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.002266285625841326, "criticality_score": 0.001869670157192689, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1019.7662514331116, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1865.5741792093881, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 2307.6929704276763, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Mallory McMorrow": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 4.803329503051446, "expected_final_county_share_points": 5.056047481859407, "current_county_share_points": 5.354866128346791, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 38.44784351659984, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 38.44784351659984, "required_final_county_share_points": 23.284407445933798, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 38.44784351659984, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 19984.677131007287, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 38.44784351659984, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 38.44784351659984, "required_final_county_share_points": 23.284407445933798, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 38.44784351659984, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 39.120707447958615, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 39.120707447958615, "required_final_county_share_points": 23.64896036956084, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.159018308558073, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999906, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 39.79060389230359, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 39.79060389230359, "required_final_county_share_points": 24.011905529691745, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.213613509684069, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.999999999999993, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -33.644514013548395, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "WELL BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.002266285625841326, "criticality_score": 6.735973730899218e-05, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 981.8359973573906, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1827.643925133667, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 2269.762716351955, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } } } }, { "cid": "fips:26043", "county": "Dickinson", "fips": "26043", "reporting": 0.0, "current_votes": 0, "current_candidate_votes": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 0, "Haley Stevens": 0, "Mallory McMorrow": 0 }, "current_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": null, "Haley Stevens": null, "Mallory McMorrow": null }, "estimated_remaining_votes": 2771.437006206097, "estimated_final_votes": 2771.437006206097, "turnout_disagreement_votes": 0.0, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 49.16865152154438, "Haley Stevens": 46.95980356147505, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.8715449169805627 }, "remaining_sources": [ { "model": "v3", "remaining_votes": 2771.437006206097, "weight": 0.1342208488636769 }, { "model": "histgeo", "remaining_votes": 2771.437006206097, "weight": 0.05994207394479305 }, { "model": "latent", "remaining_votes": 2771.437006206097, "weight": 0.07672787409296966 }, { "model": "batchbias", "remaining_votes": 2771.437006206097, "weight": 0.045123489075924846 } ], "share_sources": [ { "model": "v0", "weight": 0.03630604611298715, "source": "statewide raw" }, { "model": "v3", "weight": 0.15004242351696637, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "market", "weight": 0.0786646379365536, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "histgeo", "weight": 0.06573339512824654, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "latent", "weight": 0.08483492578364633, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "batchbias", "weight": 0.04883898267529022, "source": "county remaining" } ], "candidate_benchmarks": { "Abdul El-Sayed": { "opponent": "Haley Stevens", "expected_remaining_share_points": 49.16865152154438, "expected_final_county_share_points": 49.16865152154438, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 47.93490399099499, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 47.93490399099499, "required_final_county_share_points": 47.93490399099499, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 47.93490399099499, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": -783.8940169923975, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": false }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 47.93490399099499, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 47.93490399099499, "required_final_county_share_points": 47.93490399099499, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 47.93490399099499, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.590988980207996, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.590988980207996, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.590988980207996, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.024044322225107804, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999973, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 49.24694453603149, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 49.24694453603149, "required_final_county_share_points": 49.246944536031485, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.003259695682198218, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.9999999999999996, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": 1.233747530549394, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "ABOVE", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.0022574917610181616, "criticality_score": 0.0018297842185044854, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -931.6699629844236, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -82.56726323526016, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 361.27376367526404, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Haley Stevens": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 46.95980356147505, "expected_final_county_share_points": 46.95980356147505, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.19355109202444, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.19355109202444, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.19355109202444, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 48.19355109202444, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 880.0224720754169, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.19355109202444, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.19355109202444, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.19355109202444, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 48.19355109202444, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.84975904430577, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.84975904430577, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.84975904430577, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.07865391656842785, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.999999999999999, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 49.50608347289391, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 49.50608347289391, "required_final_county_share_points": 49.50608347289392, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.10597932088248406, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -1.233747530549394, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.0022574917610181616, "criticality_score": 0.0018297842185044854, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1027.798418067443, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1876.9011178166063, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 2320.7421447271304, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Mallory McMorrow": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 3.8715449169805627, "expected_final_county_share_points": 3.8715449169805627, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 33.802415637919424, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 33.802415637919424, "required_final_county_share_points": 33.802415637919424, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 33.802415637919424, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 20061.57522488557, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 33.802415637919424, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 33.802415637919424, "required_final_county_share_points": 33.802415637919424, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 33.802415637919424, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 34.45653241391705, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 34.45653241391705, "required_final_county_share_points": 34.45653241391705, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.159018308558073, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999906, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 35.110132188854834, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 35.110132188854834, "required_final_county_share_points": 35.110132188854834, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.213613509684069, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.999999999999993, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -29.930870720938863, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "WELL BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.0022574917610181616, "criticality_score": 7.54235244963615e-05, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 984.7101594229485, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1833.8128591721118, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 2277.653886082636, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } } } }, { "cid": "26043", "county": "26043", "fips": null, "reporting": 0.0, "current_votes": 0, "current_candidate_votes": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 0, "Haley Stevens": 0, "Mallory McMorrow": 0 }, "current_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": null, "Haley Stevens": null, "Mallory McMorrow": null }, "estimated_remaining_votes": 2771.437006206097, "estimated_final_votes": 2771.437006206097, "turnout_disagreement_votes": 0.0, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 48.973903537573875, "Haley Stevens": 46.149745434179586, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.8763510282465425 }, "remaining_sources": [ { "model": "market", "remaining_votes": 2771.437006206097, "weight": 0.1780093144963334 } ], "share_sources": [ { "model": "v0", "weight": 0.03630604611298715, "source": "statewide raw" }, { "model": "v3", "weight": 0.06301781787712588, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "market", "weight": 0.18729675699179427, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "histgeo", "weight": 0.02760802595386354, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "latent", "weight": 0.03563066882913146, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "batchbias", "weight": 0.020512372723621893, "source": "statewide fallback" } ], "candidate_benchmarks": { "Abdul El-Sayed": { "opponent": "Haley Stevens", "expected_remaining_share_points": 48.973903537573875, "expected_final_county_share_points": 48.973903537573875, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 47.75327342108671, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 47.75327342108671, "required_final_county_share_points": 47.75327342108671, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 47.75327342108671, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": -784.0887649763681, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": false }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 47.75327342108671, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 47.75327342108671, "required_final_county_share_points": 47.75327342108671, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 47.75327342108671, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.402435191598066, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.402435191598066, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.40243519159807, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.024044322225107804, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999973, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 49.05134992915548, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 49.05134992915548, "required_final_county_share_points": 49.05134992915548, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.003259695682198218, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.9999999999999996, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": 1.2206301164871647, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "ABOVE", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.0022574917610181616, "criticality_score": 0.0018494478634649516, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -931.8647109683941, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -82.76201121923066, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 361.07901569129353, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Haley Stevens": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 46.149745434179586, "expected_final_county_share_points": 46.149745434179586, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 47.37037555066674, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 47.37037555066674, "required_final_county_share_points": 47.37037555066674, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 47.37037555066674, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 879.2124139481215, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 47.37037555066674, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 47.37037555066674, "required_final_county_share_points": 47.37037555066674, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 47.37037555066674, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.01977805349677, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.01977805349677, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.01977805349678, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.07865391656842785, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.999999999999999, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.6694149671013, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.6694149671013, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.6694149671013, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.10597932088248406, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -1.2206301164871576, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.0022574917610181616, "criticality_score": 0.0018494478634649622, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1026.9883599401476, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1876.0910596893107, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 2319.932086599835, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Mallory McMorrow": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 4.8763510282465425, "expected_final_county_share_points": 4.8763510282465425, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 37.136501345834354, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 37.136501345834354, "required_final_county_share_points": 37.13650134583436, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 37.136501345834354, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 20062.580030996833, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 37.136501345834354, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 37.136501345834354, "required_final_county_share_points": 37.13650134583436, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 37.136501345834354, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 37.749746513256014, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 37.749746513256014, "required_final_county_share_points": 37.74974651325601, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.159018308558073, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999906, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 38.359105897231565, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 38.359105897231565, "required_final_county_share_points": 38.359105897231565, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.213613509684069, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.999999999999993, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -32.260150317587815, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "WELL BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.0022574917610181616, "criticality_score": 6.997771984302895e-05, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 985.7149655342145, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1834.8176652833777, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 2278.658692193902, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } } } }, { "cid": "26143", "county": "26143", "fips": null, "reporting": 0.0, "current_votes": 0, "current_candidate_votes": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 0, "Haley Stevens": 0, "Mallory McMorrow": 0 }, "current_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": null, "Haley Stevens": null, "Mallory McMorrow": null }, "estimated_remaining_votes": 2732.255070860492, "estimated_final_votes": 2732.255070860492, "turnout_disagreement_votes": 0.0, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 45.53344018445743, "Haley Stevens": 50.23026380270551, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.236296012837063 }, "remaining_sources": [ { "model": "market", "remaining_votes": 2732.255070860492, "weight": 0.1780093144963334 } ], "share_sources": [ { "model": "v0", "weight": 0.03630604611298715, "source": "statewide raw" }, { "model": "v3", "weight": 0.06301781787712588, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "market", "weight": 0.18729675699179427, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "histgeo", "weight": 0.02760802595386354, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "latent", "weight": 0.03563066882913146, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "batchbias", "weight": 0.020512372723621893, "source": "statewide fallback" } ], "candidate_benchmarks": { "Abdul El-Sayed": { "opponent": "Haley Stevens", "expected_remaining_share_points": 45.53344018445743, "expected_final_county_share_points": 45.53344018445744, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 44.30894780627911, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 44.30894780627911, "required_final_county_share_points": 44.30894780627911, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 44.30894780627911, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": -799.4757731322253, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": false }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 44.30894780627911, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 44.30894780627911, "required_final_county_share_points": 44.30894780627911, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 44.30894780627911, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 44.9595475971268, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 44.9595475971268, "required_final_county_share_points": 44.9595475971268, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.024044322225107804, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999973, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 45.611298746342676, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 45.611298746342676, "required_final_county_share_points": 45.611298746342676, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.003259695682198218, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.9999999999999996, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": 1.2244923781783257, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "ABOVE", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.002225575864670752, "criticality_score": 0.001817549789882511, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -949.3709017815539, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -88.0916349767853, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 362.11429929747845, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Haley Stevens": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 50.23026380270551, "expected_final_county_share_points": 50.230263802705515, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 51.454756180883834, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 51.454756180883834, "required_final_county_share_points": 51.454756180883834, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 51.454756180883834, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 895.2394771193882, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 51.454756180883834, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 51.454756180883834, "required_final_county_share_points": 51.454756180883834, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 51.454756180883834, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 52.10420122635174, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 52.10420122635174, "required_final_county_share_points": 52.10420122635174, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.07865391656842785, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.999999999999999, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 52.75248816288217, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 52.75248816288217, "required_final_county_share_points": 52.75248816288217, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.10597932088248406, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -1.2244923781783257, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.002225575864670752, "criticality_score": 0.001817549789882511, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1045.134605768717, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1906.4138725734852, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 2356.6198068477493, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Mallory McMorrow": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 4.236296012837063, "expected_final_county_share_points": 4.236296012837063, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 33.59035273597012, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 33.59035273597012, "required_final_county_share_points": 33.59035273597012, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 33.59035273597012, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 20349.57770686221, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 33.59035273597012, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 33.59035273597012, "required_final_county_share_points": 33.59035273597012, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 33.59035273597012, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 34.17178368873538, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 34.17178368873538, "required_final_county_share_points": 34.17178368873538, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.159018308558073, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999906, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 34.75043332895887, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 34.75043332895887, "required_final_county_share_points": 34.75043332895887, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.213613509684069, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.999999999999993, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -29.35405672313306, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "WELL BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.002225575864670752, "criticality_score": 7.581834039711594e-05, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 999.1406379788484, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1860.4199047836169, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 2310.625839057881, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } } } }, { "cid": "fips:26143", "county": "Roscommon", "fips": "26143", "reporting": 15.72, "current_votes": 484, "current_candidate_votes": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 163, "Haley Stevens": 297, "Mallory McMorrow": 24 }, "current_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 33.67768595041322, "Haley Stevens": 61.36363636363637, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.958677685950414 }, "estimated_remaining_votes": 2732.255070860492, "estimated_final_votes": 3216.255070860492, "turnout_disagreement_votes": 0.0, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 41.97757579994265, "Haley Stevens": 53.64337213625511, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.379052063802255 }, "remaining_sources": [ { "model": "v3", "remaining_votes": 2732.255070860492, "weight": 0.1342208488636769 }, { "model": "histgeo", "remaining_votes": 2732.255070860492, "weight": 0.05994207394479305 }, { "model": "latent", "remaining_votes": 2732.255070860492, "weight": 0.07672787409296966 }, { "model": "batchbias", "remaining_votes": 2732.255070860492, "weight": 0.045123489075924846 } ], "share_sources": [ { "model": "v0", "weight": 0.03630604611298715, "source": "statewide raw" }, { "model": "v1", "weight": 0.14599140026529184, "source": "county live" }, { "model": "v3", "weight": 0.15004242351696637, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "market", "weight": 0.0786646379365536, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "histgeo", "weight": 0.06573339512824654, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "latent", "weight": 0.08483492578364633, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "batchbias", "weight": 0.04883898267529022, "source": "county remaining" } ], "candidate_benchmarks": { "Abdul El-Sayed": { "opponent": "Haley Stevens", "expected_remaining_share_points": 41.97757579994265, "expected_final_county_share_points": 40.72856208720329, "current_county_share_points": 33.67768595041322, "recent_batch_votes": 214, "recent_batch_share_points": 28.504672897196258, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 40.77245653245891, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 40.77245653245891, "required_final_county_share_points": 39.704795887996596, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 40.77245653245891, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": -803.0316375167381, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": false }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 40.77245653245891, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 40.77245653245891, "required_final_county_share_points": 39.704795887996596, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 40.77245653245891, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 41.41220221832386, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 41.41220221832386, "required_final_county_share_points": 40.248269075214296, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.024044322225107804, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999973, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 42.05435497077324, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 42.05435497077324, "required_final_county_share_points": 40.79378710021267, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.003259695682198218, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.9999999999999996, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": 1.205119267483738, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -12.267783635262653, "status": "ABOVE", "recent_status": "WELL BELOW", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.002225575864670752, "criticality_score": 0.001846768137163473, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -952.9267661660687, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -91.64749936130008, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 358.55843491296366, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Haley Stevens": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 53.64337213625511, "expected_final_county_share_points": 54.805160552822706, "current_county_share_points": 61.36363636363637, "recent_batch_votes": 214, "recent_batch_share_points": 67.7570093457944, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 54.848491403738855, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 54.848491403738855, "required_final_county_share_points": 55.82892675202942, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 54.848491403738855, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 898.6525854529358, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 54.848491403738855, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 54.848491403738855, "required_final_county_share_points": 55.82892675202942, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 54.848491403738855, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 55.48583722269148, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 55.48583722269148, "required_final_county_share_points": 56.37036121769172, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.07865391656842785, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.999999999999999, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 56.12079035673592, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 56.12079035673592, "required_final_county_share_points": 56.90976306301475, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.10597932088248406, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -1.2051192674837452, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": 12.908517942055546, "status": "BELOW", "recent_status": "WELL ABOVE", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.002225575864670752, "criticality_score": 0.0018467681371634622, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1048.5477141022664, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1909.8269809070348, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 2360.032915181299, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Mallory McMorrow": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 4.379052063802255, "expected_final_county_share_points": 4.466277359974008, "current_county_share_points": 4.958677685950414, "recent_batch_votes": 214, "recent_batch_share_points": 3.7383177570093453, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 32.42682629440859, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 32.42682629440859, "required_final_county_share_points": 28.293266102947513, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 32.42682629440859, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 20349.720462913177, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 32.42682629440859, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 32.42682629440859, "required_final_county_share_points": 28.293266102947513, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 32.42682629440859, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 32.944977094900935, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 32.944977094900935, "required_final_county_share_points": 28.7334426812737, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.159018308558073, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999906, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 33.459305524073116, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 33.459305524073116, "required_final_county_share_points": 29.17037210003321, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.213613509684069, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.999999999999993, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -28.047774230606336, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -28.688508537399247, "status": "WELL BELOW", "recent_status": "WELL BELOW", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.002225575864670752, "criticality_score": 7.934946446631604e-05, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 999.2833940298136, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1860.562660834582, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 2310.768595108846, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } } } }, { "cid": "fips:26105", "county": "Mason", "fips": "26105", "reporting": 20.12, "current_votes": 718, "current_candidate_votes": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 349, "Haley Stevens": 332, "Mallory McMorrow": 37 }, "current_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 48.607242339832865, "Haley Stevens": 46.239554317548745, "Mallory McMorrow": 5.153203342618385 }, "estimated_remaining_votes": 2726.660439539037, "estimated_final_votes": 3444.660439539037, "turnout_disagreement_votes": 0.0, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 48.939170343713506, "Haley Stevens": 46.56819973258714, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.492629923699347 }, "remaining_sources": [ { "model": "v3", "remaining_votes": 2726.660439539037, "weight": 0.1342208488636769 }, { "model": "histgeo", "remaining_votes": 2726.660439539037, "weight": 0.05994207394479305 }, { "model": "latent", "remaining_votes": 2726.660439539037, "weight": 0.07672787409296966 }, { "model": "batchbias", "remaining_votes": 2726.660439539037, "weight": 0.045123489075924846 } ], "share_sources": [ { "model": "v0", "weight": 0.03630604611298715, "source": "statewide raw" }, { "model": "v1", "weight": 0.14599140026529184, "source": "county live" }, { "model": "v3", "weight": 0.15004242351696637, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "market", "weight": 0.0786646379365536, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "histgeo", "weight": 0.06573339512824654, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "latent", "weight": 0.08483492578364633, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "batchbias", "weight": 0.04883898267529022, "source": "county remaining" } ], "candidate_benchmarks": { "Abdul El-Sayed": { "opponent": "Haley Stevens", "expected_remaining_share_points": 48.939170343713506, "expected_final_county_share_points": 48.869983754507004, "current_county_share_points": 48.607242339832865, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 47.713444182807855, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 47.713444182807855, "required_final_county_share_points": 47.899746167577604, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 47.713444182807855, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": -797.8038543941432, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": false }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 47.713444182807855, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 47.713444182807855, "required_final_county_share_points": 47.899746167577604, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 47.713444182807855, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.36527802690067, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.36527802690067, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.415712715525174, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.024044322225107804, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999973, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 49.01695040235716, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 49.01695040235716, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.93155145112358, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.003259695682198218, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.9999999999999996, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": 1.2257261609056513, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "ABOVE", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.0022210187219011933, "criticality_score": 0.0018120023809071277, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -948.0065416853615, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -84.96008014937047, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 366.16959812486925, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Haley Stevens": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 46.56819973258714, "expected_final_county_share_points": 46.49969736141318, "current_county_share_points": 46.239554317548745, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 47.7939258934928, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 47.7939258934928, "required_final_county_share_points": 47.469934948342576, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 47.7939258934928, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 893.3112244704438, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 47.7939258934928, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 47.7939258934928, "required_final_county_share_points": 47.469934948342576, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 47.7939258934928, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.44591479929029, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.44591479929029, "required_final_county_share_points": 47.98602423715918, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.07865391656842785, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.999999999999999, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 49.09805234223422, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 49.09805234223422, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.5022311814121, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.10597932088248406, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -1.2257261609056584, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.0022210187219011933, "criticality_score": 0.001812002380907117, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1043.5139117616623, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1906.560373297653, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 2357.690051571893, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Mallory McMorrow": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 4.492629923699347, "expected_final_county_share_points": 4.630318884079818, "current_county_share_points": 5.153203342618385, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 35.9046884122628, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 35.9046884122628, "required_final_county_share_points": 29.49489369735634, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 35.9046884122628, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 20391.579130353086, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 35.9046884122628, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 35.9046884122628, "required_final_county_share_points": 29.49489369735634, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 35.9046884122628, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 36.53190383236086, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 36.53190383236086, "required_final_county_share_points": 29.991373249715085, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.159018308558073, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999906, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 37.156314149488324, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 37.156314149488324, "required_final_county_share_points": 30.485632390676837, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.213613509684069, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.999999999999993, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -31.412058488563453, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "WELL BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.0022210187219011933, "criticality_score": 7.070592723841467e-05, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1001.4383419527744, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1864.4848034887652, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 2315.614481763005, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } } } }, { "cid": "26105", "county": "26105", "fips": null, "reporting": 0.0, "current_votes": 0, "current_candidate_votes": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 0, "Haley Stevens": 0, "Mallory McMorrow": 0 }, "current_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": null, "Haley Stevens": null, "Mallory McMorrow": null }, "estimated_remaining_votes": 2726.660439539037, "estimated_final_votes": 2726.660439539037, "turnout_disagreement_votes": 0.0, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 48.56044532146647, "Haley Stevens": 47.148583173690966, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.2909715048425685 }, "remaining_sources": [ { "model": "market", "remaining_votes": 2726.660439539037, "weight": 0.1780093144963334 } ], "share_sources": [ { "model": "v0", "weight": 0.03630604611298715, "source": "statewide raw" }, { "model": "v3", "weight": 0.06301781787712588, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "market", "weight": 0.18729675699179427, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "histgeo", "weight": 0.02760802595386354, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "latent", "weight": 0.03563066882913146, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "batchbias", "weight": 0.020512372723621893, "source": "statewide fallback" } ], "candidate_benchmarks": { "Abdul El-Sayed": { "opponent": "Haley Stevens", "expected_remaining_share_points": 48.56044532146647, "expected_final_county_share_points": 48.56044532146646, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 47.33195894811292, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 47.33195894811292, "required_final_county_share_points": 47.33195894811292, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 47.33195894811292, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": -798.1825794163925, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": false }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 47.33195894811292, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 47.33195894811292, "required_final_county_share_points": 47.33195894811292, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 47.33195894811292, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 47.98518152904427, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 47.98518152904427, "required_final_county_share_points": 47.985181529044276, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.024044322225107804, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999973, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.63842198175606, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.63842198175606, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.63842198175606, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.003259695682198218, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.9999999999999996, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": 1.2284863733535474, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "ABOVE", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.0022210187219011933, "criticality_score": 0.001807931101293546, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -948.3852667076086, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -85.33880517161751, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 365.79087310262224, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Haley Stevens": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 47.148583173690966, "expected_final_county_share_points": 47.148583173690966, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.377069547044506, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.377069547044506, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.37706954704451, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 48.377069547044506, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 893.8916079115501, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.377069547044506, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.377069547044506, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.37706954704451, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 48.377069547044506, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 49.03026777887394, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 49.03026777887394, "required_final_county_share_points": 49.03026777887394, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.07865391656842785, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.999999999999999, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 49.68343517372752, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 49.68343517372752, "required_final_county_share_points": 49.68343517372752, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.10597932088248406, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -1.2284863733535403, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.0022210187219011933, "criticality_score": 0.0018079311012935565, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1044.094295202766, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1907.1407567387569, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 2358.2704350129966, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Mallory McMorrow": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 4.2909715048425685, "expected_final_county_share_points": 4.2909715048425685, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 35.067291975981384, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 35.067291975981384, "required_final_county_share_points": 35.067291975981384, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 35.067291975981384, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 20391.377471934233, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 35.067291975981384, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 35.067291975981384, "required_final_county_share_points": 35.067291975981384, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 35.067291975981384, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 35.695970947172064, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 35.695970947172064, "required_final_county_share_points": 35.695970947172064, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.159018308558073, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999906, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 36.32240180411807, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 36.32240180411807, "required_final_county_share_points": 36.32240180411807, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.213613509684069, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.999999999999993, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -30.776320471138817, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "WELL BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.0022210187219011933, "criticality_score": 7.216648019973679e-05, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1001.2366835339176, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1864.2831450699086, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 2315.4128233441484, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } } } }, { "cid": "26157", "county": "26157", "fips": null, "reporting": 0.0, "current_votes": 0, "current_candidate_votes": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 0, "Haley Stevens": 0, "Mallory McMorrow": 0 }, "current_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": null, "Haley Stevens": null, "Mallory McMorrow": null }, "estimated_remaining_votes": 2618.943835602582, "estimated_final_votes": 2618.943835602582, "turnout_disagreement_votes": 0.0, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 44.77362907114305, "Haley Stevens": 50.41595935107611, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.810411577780858 }, "remaining_sources": [ { "model": "market", "remaining_votes": 2618.943835602582, "weight": 0.1780093144963334 } ], "share_sources": [ { "model": "v0", "weight": 0.03630604611298715, "source": "statewide raw" }, { "model": "v3", "weight": 0.06301781787712588, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "market", "weight": 0.18729675699179427, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "histgeo", "weight": 0.02760802595386354, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "latent", "weight": 0.03563066882913146, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "batchbias", "weight": 0.020512372723621893, "source": "statewide fallback" } ], "candidate_benchmarks": { "Abdul El-Sayed": { "opponent": "Haley Stevens", "expected_remaining_share_points": 44.77362907114305, "expected_final_county_share_points": 44.77362907114305, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 43.558148221656204, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 43.558148221656204, "required_final_county_share_points": 43.558148221656204, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 43.558148221656204, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": -836.7957565041387, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": false }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 43.558148221656204, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 43.558148221656204, "required_final_county_share_points": 43.558148221656204, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 43.558148221656204, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 44.20388063296404, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 44.20388063296404, "required_final_county_share_points": 44.203880632964044, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.024044322225107804, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999973, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 44.850936194800624, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 44.850936194800624, "required_final_county_share_points": 44.850936194800624, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.003259695682198218, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.9999999999999996, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": 1.2154808494868448, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "ABOVE", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.002133277472373648, "criticality_score": 0.0017550893321554848, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -993.1762484344605, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -94.63286916688274, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 375.0516769964828, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Haley Stevens": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 50.41595935107611, "expected_final_county_share_points": 50.415959351076104, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 51.63144020056295, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 51.63144020056295, "required_final_county_share_points": 51.63144020056295, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 51.63144020056295, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 931.9853449263579, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 51.63144020056295, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 51.63144020056295, "required_final_county_share_points": 51.63144020056295, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 51.63144020056295, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 52.275847131293986, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 52.275847131293986, "required_final_county_share_points": 52.275847131293986, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.07865391656842785, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.999999999999999, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 52.91892627586393, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 52.91892627586393, "required_final_county_share_points": 52.91892627586393, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.10597932088248406, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -1.2154808494868377, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.002133277472373648, "criticality_score": 0.0017550893321554952, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1088.3658368566796, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1986.9092161242572, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 2456.593762287623, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Mallory McMorrow": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 4.810411577780858, "expected_final_county_share_points": 4.810411577780858, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 34.98972277045115, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 34.98972277045115, "required_final_county_share_points": 34.98972277045115, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 34.98972277045115, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 21230.41345143487, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 34.98972277045115, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 34.98972277045115, "required_final_county_share_points": 34.98972277045115, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 34.98972277045115, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 35.53719091224037, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 35.53719091224037, "required_final_county_share_points": 35.53719091224037, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.159018308558073, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999906, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 36.080266100812594, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 36.080266100812594, "required_final_county_share_points": 36.080266100812594, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.213613509684069, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.999999999999993, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -30.179311192670294, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "WELL BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.002133277472373648, "criticality_score": 7.068675155487846e-05, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1042.7602890833844, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1941.303668350962, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 2410.988214514328, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } } } }, { "cid": "fips:26157", "county": "Tuscola", "fips": "26157", "reporting": 41.07, "current_votes": 2125, "current_candidate_votes": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 786, "Haley Stevens": 1197, "Mallory McMorrow": 142 }, "current_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 36.98823529411765, "Haley Stevens": 56.32941176470588, "Mallory McMorrow": 6.682352941176471 }, "estimated_remaining_votes": 2618.9438356025817, "estimated_final_votes": 4743.943835602582, "turnout_disagreement_votes": 4.547473508864641e-13, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 41.824986232102596, "Haley Stevens": 52.617310696089746, "Mallory McMorrow": 5.5577030718076745 }, "remaining_sources": [ { "model": "v3", "remaining_votes": 2618.943835602582, "weight": 0.1342208488636769 }, { "model": "histgeo", "remaining_votes": 2618.943835602582, "weight": 0.05994207394479305 }, { "model": "latent", "remaining_votes": 2618.943835602582, "weight": 0.07672787409296966 }, { "model": "batchbias", "remaining_votes": 2618.943835602582, "weight": 0.045123489075924846 } ], "share_sources": [ { "model": "v0", "weight": 0.03630604611298715, "source": "statewide raw" }, { "model": "v1", "weight": 0.14599140026529184, "source": "county live" }, { "model": "v3", "weight": 0.15004242351696637, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "market", "weight": 0.0786646379365536, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "histgeo", "weight": 0.06573339512824654, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "latent", "weight": 0.08483492578364633, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "batchbias", "weight": 0.04883898267529022, "source": "county remaining" } ], "candidate_benchmarks": { "Abdul El-Sayed": { "opponent": "Haley Stevens", "expected_remaining_share_points": 41.824986232102596, "expected_final_county_share_points": 39.6584142617343, "current_county_share_points": 36.98823529411765, "recent_batch_votes": 350, "recent_batch_share_points": 36.857142857142854, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 40.632280170813765, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 40.632280170813765, "required_final_county_share_points": 38.99996839999035, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 40.632280170813765, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": -839.74439934318, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": false }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 40.632280170813765, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 40.632280170813765, "required_final_county_share_points": 38.99996839999035, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 40.632280170813765, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 41.265494949753275, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 41.265494949753275, "required_final_county_share_points": 39.349541244734084, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.024044322225107804, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999973, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 41.900958568092356, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 41.900958568092356, "required_final_county_share_points": 39.70035558480045, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.003259695682198218, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.9999999999999996, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": 1.1927060612888312, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -3.7751373136709105, "status": "ABOVE", "recent_status": "WELL BELOW", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.0021332774723736474, "criticality_score": 0.0017886028600109906, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -996.1248912735012, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -97.58151200592323, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 372.10303415744244, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Haley Stevens": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 52.617310696089746, "expected_final_county_share_points": 54.28010752593613, "current_county_share_points": 56.32941176470588, "recent_batch_votes": 350, "recent_batch_share_points": 58.857142857142854, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 53.81001675737858, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 53.81001675737858, "required_final_county_share_points": 54.93855338768008, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 53.81001675737858, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 934.1866962713723, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 53.81001675737858, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 53.81001675737858, "required_final_county_share_points": 54.93855338768008, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 53.81001675737858, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 54.44098836678847, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 54.44098836678847, "required_final_county_share_points": 55.2868878672122, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.07865391656842785, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.999999999999999, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 55.0697224697066, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 55.0697224697066, "required_final_county_share_points": 55.63398710787204, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.10597932088248406, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -1.1927060612888312, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": 5.047126099764277, "status": "BELOW", "recent_status": "WELL ABOVE", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.0021332774723736474, "criticality_score": 0.0017886028600109906, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1090.5671882016936, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1989.1105674692712, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 2458.795113632637, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Mallory McMorrow": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 5.5577030718076745, "expected_final_county_share_points": 6.061478212329574, "current_county_share_points": 6.682352941176471, "recent_batch_votes": 350, "recent_batch_share_points": 4.285714285714286, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 35.43310255073383, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 35.43310255073383, "required_final_county_share_points": 22.554505114187876, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 35.43310255073383, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 21231.160742928903, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 35.43310255073383, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 35.43310255073383, "required_final_county_share_points": 22.554505114187876, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 35.43310255073383, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 35.90706834318055, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 35.90706834318055, "required_final_county_share_points": 22.816162889539076, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.159018308558073, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999906, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 36.37514221222855, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 36.37514221222855, "required_final_county_share_points": 23.074567966924274, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.213613509684069, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.999999999999993, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -29.875399478926155, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -31.147388265019543, "status": "WELL BELOW", "recent_status": "WELL BELOW", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.0021332774723736474, "criticality_score": 7.140582250217081e-05, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1043.5075805774115, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1942.0509598449892, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 2411.735506008355, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } } } }, { "cid": "fips:26051", "county": "Gladwin", "fips": "26051", "reporting": 0.0, "current_votes": 0, "current_candidate_votes": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 0, "Haley Stevens": 0, "Mallory McMorrow": 0 }, "current_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": null, "Haley Stevens": null, "Mallory McMorrow": null }, "estimated_remaining_votes": 2590.3361413120724, "estimated_final_votes": 2590.3361413120724, "turnout_disagreement_votes": 0.0, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 49.097174862354414, "Haley Stevens": 47.03323172214603, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.8695934154995495 }, "remaining_sources": [ { "model": "v3", "remaining_votes": 2590.3361413120724, "weight": 0.1342208488636769 }, { "model": "histgeo", "remaining_votes": 2590.3361413120724, "weight": 0.05994207394479305 }, { "model": "latent", "remaining_votes": 2590.3361413120724, "weight": 0.07672787409296966 }, { "model": "batchbias", "remaining_votes": 2590.3361413120724, "weight": 0.045123489075924846 } ], "share_sources": [ { "model": "v0", "weight": 0.03630604611298715, "source": "statewide raw" }, { "model": "v3", "weight": 0.15004242351696637, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "market", "weight": 0.0786646379365536, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "histgeo", "weight": 0.06573339512824654, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "latent", "weight": 0.08483492578364633, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "batchbias", "weight": 0.04883898267529022, "source": "county remaining" } ], "candidate_benchmarks": { "Abdul El-Sayed": { "opponent": "Haley Stevens", "expected_remaining_share_points": 49.097174862354414, "expected_final_county_share_points": 49.097174862354414, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 47.86336733204149, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 47.86336733204149, "required_final_county_share_points": 47.86336733204149, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 47.86336733204149, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": -842.208270476059, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": false }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 47.86336733204149, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 47.86336733204149, "required_final_county_share_points": 47.86336733204149, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 47.86336733204149, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.5194723317759, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.5194723317759, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.5194723317759, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.024044322225107804, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999973, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 49.17547490885187, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 49.17547490885187, "required_final_county_share_points": 49.17547490885187, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.003259695682198218, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.9999999999999996, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": 1.233807530312923, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "ABOVE", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.0021099748917925505, "criticality_score": 0.0017101329339896398, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -1000.3158298841454, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -91.84892992329259, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 383.022816347165, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Haley Stevens": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 47.03323172214603, "expected_final_county_share_points": 47.033231722146034, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.26703925245896, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.26703925245896, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.26703925245896, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 48.26703925245896, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 938.3386770605597, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.26703925245896, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.26703925245896, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.26703925245896, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 48.26703925245896, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.92324019040962, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.92324019040962, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.92324019040963, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.07865391656842785, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.999999999999999, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 49.57953056676023, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 49.57953056676023, "required_final_county_share_points": 49.57953056676023, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.10597932088248406, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -1.2338075303129301, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.0021099748917925505, "criticality_score": 0.00171013293398963, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1096.4462364686458, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 2004.9131364294985, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 2479.784882699956, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Mallory McMorrow": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 3.8695934154995495, "expected_final_county_share_points": 3.86959341549955, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 33.767256558424904, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 33.767256558424904, "required_final_county_share_points": 33.767256558424904, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 33.767256558424904, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 21463.888373072437, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 33.767256558424904, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 33.767256558424904, "required_final_county_share_points": 33.767256558424904, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 33.767256558424904, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 34.42028951167481, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 34.42028951167481, "required_final_county_share_points": 34.42028951167481, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.159018308558073, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999906, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 35.072791030119745, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 35.072791030119745, "required_final_county_share_points": 35.072791030119745, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.213613509684069, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.999999999999993, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -29.897663142925353, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "WELL BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.0021099748917925505, "criticality_score": 7.05732378382165e-05, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1053.2825981619994, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1961.7494981228522, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 2436.6212443933096, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } } } }, { "cid": "26051", "county": "26051", "fips": null, "reporting": 0.0, "current_votes": 0, "current_candidate_votes": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 0, "Haley Stevens": 0, "Mallory McMorrow": 0 }, "current_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": null, "Haley Stevens": null, "Mallory McMorrow": null }, "estimated_remaining_votes": 2590.3361413120724, "estimated_final_votes": 2590.3361413120724, "turnout_disagreement_votes": 0.0, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 47.866155366725685, "Haley Stevens": 48.07259662711275, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.061248006161554 }, "remaining_sources": [ { "model": "market", "remaining_votes": 2590.3361413120724, "weight": 0.1780093144963334 } ], "share_sources": [ { "model": "v0", "weight": 0.03630604611298715, "source": "statewide raw" }, { "model": "v3", "weight": 0.06301781787712588, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "market", "weight": 0.18729675699179427, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "histgeo", "weight": 0.02760802595386354, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "latent", "weight": 0.03563066882913146, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "batchbias", "weight": 0.020512372723621893, "source": "statewide fallback" } ], "candidate_benchmarks": { "Abdul El-Sayed": { "opponent": "Haley Stevens", "expected_remaining_share_points": 47.866155366725685, "expected_final_county_share_points": 47.866155366725685, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 46.63499237555791, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 46.63499237555791, "required_final_county_share_points": 46.63499237555791, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 46.63499237555791, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": -843.4392899716851, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": false }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 46.63499237555791, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 46.63499237555791, "required_final_county_share_points": 46.63499237555791, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 46.63499237555791, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 47.28950516908663, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 47.28950516908663, "required_final_county_share_points": 47.28950516908664, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.024044322225107804, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999973, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 47.94433799359388, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 47.94433799359388, "required_final_county_share_points": 47.94433799359388, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.003259695682198218, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.9999999999999996, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": 1.2311629911677784, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "ABOVE", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.0021099748917925505, "criticality_score": 0.0017138063009766113, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -1001.5468493797741, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -93.07994941892133, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 381.79179685153633, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Haley Stevens": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 48.07259662711275, "expected_final_county_share_points": 48.07259662711275, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 49.30375961828052, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 49.30375961828052, "required_final_county_share_points": 49.303759618280516, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 49.30375961828052, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 939.3780419655236, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 49.30375961828052, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 49.30375961828052, "required_final_county_share_points": 49.303759618280516, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 49.30375961828052, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 49.95794612902271, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 49.95794612902271, "required_final_county_share_points": 49.95794612902271, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.07865391656842785, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.999999999999999, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 50.61180010634276, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 50.61180010634276, "required_final_county_share_points": 50.61180010634276, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.10597932088248406, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -1.2311629911677713, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.0021099748917925505, "criticality_score": 0.001713806300976621, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1097.4856013736126, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 2005.9525013344653, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 2480.824247604923, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Mallory McMorrow": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 4.061248006161554, "expected_final_county_share_points": 4.061248006161554, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 33.98016158619869, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 33.98016158619869, "required_final_county_share_points": 33.98016158619869, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 33.98016158619869, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 21464.080027663098, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 33.98016158619869, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 33.98016158619869, "required_final_county_share_points": 33.98016158619869, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 33.98016158619869, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 34.60618224899911, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 34.60618224899911, "required_final_county_share_points": 34.60618224899911, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.159018308558073, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999906, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 35.23057058958013, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 35.23057058958013, "required_final_county_share_points": 35.23057058958013, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.213613509684069, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.999999999999993, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -29.918913580037135, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "WELL BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.0021099748917925505, "criticality_score": 7.052311194883741e-05, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1053.4742527526614, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1961.9411527135142, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 2436.8128989839715, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } } } }, { "cid": "fips:26067", "county": "Ionia", "fips": "26067", "reporting": 53.0, "current_votes": 5141, "current_candidate_votes": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 2455, "Haley Stevens": 2478, "Mallory McMorrow": 208 }, "current_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 47.753355378331065, "Haley Stevens": 48.20073915580627, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.045905465862672 }, "estimated_remaining_votes": 2507.4500000000003, "estimated_final_votes": 7648.450000000001, "turnout_disagreement_votes": 1352.012225500406, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 48.31789410644857, "Haley Stevens": 47.71965950059066, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.962446392960773 }, "remaining_sources": [ { "model": "v3", "remaining_votes": 1155.4377744995945, "weight": 0.1342208488636769 }, { "model": "histgeo", "remaining_votes": 1155.4377744995945, "weight": 0.05994207394479305 }, { "model": "latent", "remaining_votes": 1155.4377744995945, "weight": 0.07672787409296966 }, { "model": "batchbias", "remaining_votes": 1155.4377744995945, "weight": 0.045123489075924846 } ], "share_sources": [ { "model": "v0", "weight": 0.03630604611298715, "source": "statewide raw" }, { "model": "v1", "weight": 0.14599140026529184, "source": "county live" }, { "model": "v3", "weight": 0.15004242351696637, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "market", "weight": 0.0786646379365536, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "histgeo", "weight": 0.06573339512824654, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "latent", "weight": 0.08483492578364633, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "batchbias", "weight": 0.04883898267529022, "source": "county remaining" } ], "candidate_benchmarks": { "Abdul El-Sayed": { "opponent": "Haley Stevens", "expected_remaining_share_points": 48.31789410644857, "expected_final_county_share_points": 47.93843243758074, "current_county_share_points": 47.753355378331065, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 47.085240180454335, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 47.085240180454335, "required_final_county_share_points": 47.53432205093584, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 47.085240180454335, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": -872.4504992845821, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": false }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 47.085240180454335, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 47.085240180454335, "required_final_county_share_points": 47.53432205093584, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 47.085240180454335, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 47.74061161574997, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 47.74061161574997, "required_final_county_share_points": 47.74917749294462, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.024044322225107804, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999973, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.396153505501104, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.396153505501104, "required_final_county_share_points": 47.96408881634432, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.003259695682198218, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.9999999999999996, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": 1.232653925994235, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "ABOVE", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.0020424594546039794, "criticality_score": 0.001656960977880771, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -1035.7844542385853, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -97.28731804271487, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 393.2817648312577, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Haley Stevens": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 47.71965950059066, "expected_final_county_share_points": 48.04302312426125, "current_county_share_points": 48.20073915580627, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.952313426584894, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.952313426584894, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.44713351090616, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 48.952313426584894, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 968.4880528916212, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.952313426584894, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.952313426584894, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.44713351090616, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 48.952313426584894, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 49.60750797680143, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 49.60750797680143, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.661930963323385, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.07865391656842785, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.999999999999999, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 50.262519206744194, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 50.262519206744194, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.87666831644984, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.10597932088248406, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -1.232653925994235, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.0020424594546039794, "criticality_score": 0.001656960977880771, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1131.8220078456247, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 2070.319144041495, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 2560.888226915468, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Mallory McMorrow": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 3.962446392960773, "expected_final_county_share_points": 4.018544438157991, "current_county_share_points": 4.045905465862672, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 33.8067514742809, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 33.8067514742809, "required_final_county_share_points": 13.802631772997884, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 33.8067514742809, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 22173.362529418006, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 33.8067514742809, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 33.8067514742809, "required_final_county_share_points": 13.802631772997884, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 33.8067514742809, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 34.44377800755872, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 34.44377800755872, "required_final_county_share_points": 14.011473065137785, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.159018308558073, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999906, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 35.07966717182443, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 35.07966717182443, "required_final_county_share_points": 14.219941484874868, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.213613509684069, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.999999999999993, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -29.84430508132013, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "WELL BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.0020424594546039794, "criticality_score": 6.84371590840752e-05, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1088.0647947379948, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 2026.5619309338651, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 2517.131013807838, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } } } }, { "cid": "26109", "county": "26109", "fips": null, "reporting": 0.0, "current_votes": 0, "current_candidate_votes": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 0, "Haley Stevens": 0, "Mallory McMorrow": 0 }, "current_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": null, "Haley Stevens": null, "Mallory McMorrow": null }, "estimated_remaining_votes": 2394.3909432300134, "estimated_final_votes": 2394.3909432300134, "turnout_disagreement_votes": 0.0, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 49.45326057381173, "Haley Stevens": 46.839178974492555, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.707560451695713 }, "remaining_sources": [ { "model": "market", "remaining_votes": 2394.3909432300134, "weight": 0.1780093144963334 } ], "share_sources": [ { "model": "v0", "weight": 0.03630604611298715, "source": "statewide raw" }, { "model": "v3", "weight": 0.06301781787712588, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "market", "weight": 0.18729675699179427, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "histgeo", "weight": 0.02760802595386354, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "latent", "weight": 0.03563066882913146, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "batchbias", "weight": 0.020512372723621893, "source": "statewide fallback" } ], "candidate_benchmarks": { "Abdul El-Sayed": { "opponent": "Haley Stevens", "expected_remaining_share_points": 49.45326057381173, "expected_final_county_share_points": 49.45326057381173, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.21753450149631, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.21753450149631, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.21753450149632, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 48.21753450149631, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": -914.7922460074215, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": false }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.21753450149631, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.21753450149631, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.21753450149632, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 48.21753450149631, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.874704590997396, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.874704590997396, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.874704590997396, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.024044322225107804, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999973, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 49.531670216098654, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 49.531670216098654, "required_final_county_share_points": 49.53167021609865, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.003259695682198218, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.9999999999999996, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": 1.2357260723154226, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "ABOVE", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.001950366475909103, "criticality_score": 0.00157831619774327, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -1085.8385517526865, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -103.02718136726328, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 410.70573694764585, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Haley Stevens": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 46.839178974492555, "expected_final_county_share_points": 46.839178974492555, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.07490504680796, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.07490504680796, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.074905046807956, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 48.07490504680796, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1011.0846855557257, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.07490504680796, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.07490504680796, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.074905046807956, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 48.07490504680796, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.73227317566207, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.73227317566207, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.73227317566208, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.07865391656842785, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.999999999999999, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 49.3898328994224, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 49.3898328994224, "required_final_county_share_points": 49.3898328994224, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.10597932088248406, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -1.2357260723154084, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.001950366475909103, "criticality_score": 0.001578316197743288, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1182.130991300991, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 2164.9423616864137, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 2678.6752800013232, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Mallory McMorrow": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 3.707560451695713, "expected_final_county_share_points": 3.707560451695713, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 33.27257907093374, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 33.27257907093374, "required_final_county_share_points": 33.27257907093374, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 33.27257907093374, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 23219.90890608179, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 33.27257907093374, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 33.27257907093374, "required_final_county_share_points": 33.27257907093374, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 33.27257907093374, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 33.937107256748334, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 33.937107256748334, "required_final_county_share_points": 33.937107256748334, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.159018308558073, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999906, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 34.60191950368675, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 34.60191950368675, "required_final_county_share_points": 34.60191950368675, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.213613509684069, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.999999999999993, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -29.565018619238025, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "WELL BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.001950366475909103, "criticality_score": 6.596872138074674e-05, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1138.999372778194, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 2121.810743163617, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 2635.5436614785267, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } } } }, { "cid": "fips:26109", "county": "Menominee", "fips": "26109", "reporting": 0.0, "current_votes": 0, "current_candidate_votes": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 0, "Haley Stevens": 0, "Mallory McMorrow": 0 }, "current_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": null, "Haley Stevens": null, "Mallory McMorrow": null }, "estimated_remaining_votes": 2394.3909432300134, "estimated_final_votes": 2394.3909432300134, "turnout_disagreement_votes": 0.0, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 49.158633168958325, "Haley Stevens": 46.97750573983265, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.8638610912090225 }, "remaining_sources": [ { "model": "v3", "remaining_votes": 2394.3909432300134, "weight": 0.1342208488636769 }, { "model": "histgeo", "remaining_votes": 2394.3909432300134, "weight": 0.05994207394479305 }, { "model": "latent", "remaining_votes": 2394.3909432300134, "weight": 0.07672787409296966 }, { "model": "batchbias", "remaining_votes": 2394.3909432300134, "weight": 0.045123489075924846 } ], "share_sources": [ { "model": "v0", "weight": 0.03630604611298715, "source": "statewide raw" }, { "model": "v3", "weight": 0.15004242351696637, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "market", "weight": 0.0786646379365536, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "histgeo", "weight": 0.06573339512824654, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "latent", "weight": 0.08483492578364633, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "batchbias", "weight": 0.04883898267529022, "source": "county remaining" } ], "candidate_benchmarks": { "Abdul El-Sayed": { "opponent": "Haley Stevens", "expected_remaining_share_points": 49.158633168958325, "expected_final_county_share_points": 49.15863316895833, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 47.924779857819296, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 47.924779857819296, "required_final_county_share_points": 47.92477985781929, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 47.924779857819296, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": -915.0868734122743, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": false }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 47.924779857819296, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 47.924779857819296, "required_final_county_share_points": 47.92477985781929, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 47.924779857819296, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.5809188097206, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.5809188097206, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.5809188097206, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.024044322225107804, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999973, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 49.23693351679498, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 49.23693351679498, "required_final_county_share_points": 49.23693351679498, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.003259695682198218, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.9999999999999996, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": 1.233853311139029, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "ABOVE", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.001950366475909103, "criticality_score": 0.001580711789887427, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -1086.1331791575399, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -103.3218087721167, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 410.4111095427924, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Haley Stevens": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 46.97750573983265, "expected_final_county_share_points": 46.97750573983265, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.21135905097168, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.21135905097168, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.21135905097168, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 48.21135905097168, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1011.2230123210651, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.21135905097168, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.21135905097168, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.21135905097168, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 48.21135905097168, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.86761577390726, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.86761577390726, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.86761577390726, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.07865391656842785, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.999999999999999, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 49.52398377784789, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 49.52398377784789, "required_final_county_share_points": 49.52398377784789, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.10597932088248406, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -1.233853311139029, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.001950366475909103, "criticality_score": 0.001580711789887427, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1182.269318066331, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 2165.080688451754, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 2678.8136067666637, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Mallory McMorrow": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 3.8638610912090225, "expected_final_county_share_points": 3.8638610912090225, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 33.76927744870776, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 33.76927744870776, "required_final_county_share_points": 33.76927744870776, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 33.76927744870776, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 23220.06520672131, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 33.76927744870776, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 33.76927744870776, "required_final_county_share_points": 33.76927744870776, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 33.76927744870776, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 34.42351003107981, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 34.42351003107981, "required_final_county_share_points": 34.42351003107981, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.159018308558073, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999906, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 35.07725426483747, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 35.07725426483747, "required_final_county_share_points": 35.07725426483747, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.213613509684069, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.999999999999993, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -29.905416357498737, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "WELL BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.001950366475909103, "criticality_score": 6.521783387309542e-05, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1139.1556734177072, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 2121.9670438031303, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 2635.69996211804, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } } } }, { "cid": "26129", "county": "26129", "fips": null, "reporting": 0.0, "current_votes": 0, "current_candidate_votes": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 0, "Haley Stevens": 0, "Mallory McMorrow": 0 }, "current_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": null, "Haley Stevens": null, "Mallory McMorrow": null }, "estimated_remaining_votes": 2287.5117442761625, "estimated_final_votes": 2287.5117442761625, "turnout_disagreement_votes": 0.0, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 47.866155366725685, "Haley Stevens": 48.07259662711275, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.061248006161554 }, "remaining_sources": [ { "model": "market", "remaining_votes": 2287.5117442761625, "weight": 0.1780093144963334 } ], "share_sources": [ { "model": "v0", "weight": 0.03630604611298715, "source": "statewide raw" }, { "model": "v3", "weight": 0.06301781787712588, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "market", "weight": 0.18729675699179427, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "histgeo", "weight": 0.02760802595386354, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "latent", "weight": 0.03563066882913146, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "batchbias", "weight": 0.020512372723621893, "source": "statewide fallback" } ], "candidate_benchmarks": { "Abdul El-Sayed": { "opponent": "Haley Stevens", "expected_remaining_share_points": 47.866155366725685, "expected_final_county_share_points": 47.86615536672569, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 46.63499237555791, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 46.63499237555791, "required_final_county_share_points": 46.6349923755579, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 46.63499237555791, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": -961.4317045395243, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": false }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 46.63499237555791, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 46.63499237555791, "required_final_county_share_points": 46.6349923755579, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 46.63499237555791, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 47.28950516908663, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 47.28950516908663, "required_final_county_share_points": 47.289505169086624, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.024044322225107804, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999973, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 47.94433799359388, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 47.94433799359388, "required_final_county_share_points": 47.94433799359388, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.003259695682198218, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.9999999999999996, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": 1.2311629911677784, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "ABOVE", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.0018633073399726766, "criticality_score": 0.0015134530142148757, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -1140.46979095556, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -111.73861611345214, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 425.99739767106996, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Haley Stevens": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 48.07259662711275, "expected_final_county_share_points": 48.07259662711275, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 49.30375961828052, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 49.30375961828052, "required_final_county_share_points": 49.30375961828052, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 49.30375961828052, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1057.3704565333628, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 49.30375961828052, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 49.30375961828052, "required_final_county_share_points": 49.30375961828052, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 49.30375961828052, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 49.95794612902271, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 49.95794612902271, "required_final_county_share_points": 49.95794612902271, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.07865391656842785, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.999999999999999, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 50.61180010634276, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 50.61180010634276, "required_final_county_share_points": 50.61180010634276, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.10597932088248406, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -1.2311629911677713, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.0018633073399726766, "criticality_score": 0.0015134530142148844, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1236.4085429493985, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 2265.139717791506, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 2802.8757315760286, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Mallory McMorrow": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 4.061248006161554, "expected_final_county_share_points": 4.061248006161554, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 33.98016158619869, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 33.98016158619869, "required_final_county_share_points": 33.98016158619869, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 33.98016158619869, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 24304.99101471697, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 33.98016158619869, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 33.98016158619869, "required_final_county_share_points": 33.98016158619869, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 33.98016158619869, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 34.60618224899911, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 34.60618224899911, "required_final_county_share_points": 34.60618224899911, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.159018308558073, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999906, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 35.23057058958013, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 35.23057058958013, "required_final_county_share_points": 35.23057058958013, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.213613509684069, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.999999999999993, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -29.918913580037135, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "WELL BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.0018633073399726766, "criticality_score": 6.22785762253057e-05, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1192.3971943284473, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 2221.1283691705544, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 2758.864382955077, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } } } }, { "cid": "fips:26129", "county": "Ogemaw", "fips": "26129", "reporting": 0.0, "current_votes": 0, "current_candidate_votes": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 0, "Haley Stevens": 0, "Mallory McMorrow": 0 }, "current_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": null, "Haley Stevens": null, "Mallory McMorrow": null }, "estimated_remaining_votes": 2287.5117442761625, "estimated_final_votes": 2287.5117442761625, "turnout_disagreement_votes": 0.0, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 49.17026802919363, "Haley Stevens": 46.960971292186954, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.868760678619411 }, "remaining_sources": [ { "model": "v3", "remaining_votes": 2287.5117442761625, "weight": 0.1342208488636769 }, { "model": "histgeo", "remaining_votes": 2287.5117442761625, "weight": 0.05994207394479305 }, { "model": "latent", "remaining_votes": 2287.5117442761625, "weight": 0.07672787409296966 }, { "model": "batchbias", "remaining_votes": 2287.5117442761625, "weight": 0.045123489075924846 } ], "share_sources": [ { "model": "v0", "weight": 0.03630604611298715, "source": "statewide raw" }, { "model": "v3", "weight": 0.15004242351696637, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "market", "weight": 0.0786646379365536, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "histgeo", "weight": 0.06573339512824654, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "latent", "weight": 0.08483492578364633, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "batchbias", "weight": 0.04883898267529022, "source": "county remaining" } ], "candidate_benchmarks": { "Abdul El-Sayed": { "opponent": "Haley Stevens", "expected_remaining_share_points": 49.17026802919363, "expected_final_county_share_points": 49.17026802919363, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 47.93648486498287, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 47.93648486498287, "required_final_county_share_points": 47.93648486498287, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 47.93648486498287, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": -960.1275918770546, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": false }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 47.93648486498287, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 47.93648486498287, "required_final_county_share_points": 47.93648486498287, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 47.93648486498287, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.592588835124054, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.592588835124054, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.592588835124054, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.024044322225107804, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999973, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 49.248563296415696, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 49.248563296415696, "required_final_county_share_points": 49.248563296415696, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.003259695682198218, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.9999999999999996, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": 1.233783164210756, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "ABOVE", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.0018633073399726766, "criticality_score": 0.0015102389090911477, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -1139.165678293092, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -110.43450345098418, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 427.30151033353786, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Haley Stevens": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 46.960971292186954, "expected_final_county_share_points": 46.960971292186954, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.19475445639772, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.19475445639772, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.19475445639772, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 48.19475445639772, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1056.258831198435, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.19475445639772, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.19475445639772, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.19475445639772, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 48.19475445639772, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.850981464921446, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.850981464921446, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.85098146492145, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.07865391656842785, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.999999999999999, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 49.50732502491718, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 49.50732502491718, "required_final_county_share_points": 49.50732502491717, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.10597932088248406, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -1.233783164210763, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.0018633073399726766, "criticality_score": 0.001510238909091139, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1235.2969176144727, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 2264.02809245658, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 2801.7641062411026, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Mallory McMorrow": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 3.868760678619411, "expected_final_county_share_points": 3.868760678619411, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 33.792447477993186, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 33.792447477993186, "required_final_county_share_points": 33.792447477993186, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 33.792447477993186, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 24304.79852738943, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 33.792447477993186, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 33.792447477993186, "required_final_county_share_points": 33.792447477993186, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 33.792447477993186, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 34.44669097347726, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 34.44669097347726, "required_final_county_share_points": 34.44669097347726, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.159018308558073, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999906, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 35.10042949443576, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 35.10042949443576, "required_final_county_share_points": 35.10042949443576, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.213613509684069, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.999999999999993, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -29.923686799373776, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "WELL BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.0018633073399726766, "criticality_score": 6.226864197802226e-05, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1192.204707000905, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 2220.9358818430123, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 2758.671895627535, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } } } }, { "cid": "26035", "county": "26035", "fips": null, "reporting": 0.0, "current_votes": 0, "current_candidate_votes": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 0, "Haley Stevens": 0, "Mallory McMorrow": 0 }, "current_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": null, "Haley Stevens": null, "Mallory McMorrow": null }, "estimated_remaining_votes": 2166.541410974669, "estimated_final_votes": 2166.541410974669, "turnout_disagreement_votes": 0.0, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 45.445935915957946, "Haley Stevens": 50.11140943147776, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.442654652564292 }, "remaining_sources": [ { "model": "market", "remaining_votes": 2166.541410974669, "weight": 0.1780093144963334 } ], "share_sources": [ { "model": "v0", "weight": 0.03630604611298715, "source": "statewide raw" }, { "model": "v3", "weight": 0.06301781787712588, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "market", "weight": 0.18729675699179427, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "histgeo", "weight": 0.02760802595386354, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "latent", "weight": 0.03563066882913146, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "batchbias", "weight": 0.020512372723621893, "source": "statewide fallback" } ], "candidate_benchmarks": { "Abdul El-Sayed": { "opponent": "Haley Stevens", "expected_remaining_share_points": 45.445935915957946, "expected_final_county_share_points": 45.44593591595794, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 44.224048574337296, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 44.224048574337296, "required_final_county_share_points": 44.224048574337296, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 44.224048574337296, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": -1020.2067658109314, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": false }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 44.224048574337296, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 44.224048574337296, "required_final_county_share_points": 44.224048574337296, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 44.224048574337296, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 44.873265984696204, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 44.873265984696204, "required_final_county_share_points": 44.873265984696204, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.024044322225107804, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999973, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 45.523628367667136, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 45.523628367667136, "required_final_county_share_points": 45.523628367667136, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.003259695682198218, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.9999999999999996, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": 1.2218873416206506, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "ABOVE", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.0017647701803171578, "criticality_score": 0.001444298602829009, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -1209.2415672113657, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -123.07047801179256, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 444.69039681910385, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Haley Stevens": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 50.11140943147776, "expected_final_county_share_points": 50.11140943147776, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 51.33329677309841, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 51.33329677309841, "required_final_county_share_points": 51.33329677309841, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 51.33329677309841, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1115.764111158367, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 51.33329677309841, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 51.33329677309841, "required_final_county_share_points": 51.33329677309841, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 51.33329677309841, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 51.981365810176314, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 51.981365810176314, "required_final_county_share_points": 51.981365810176314, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.07865391656842785, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.999999999999999, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 52.62828309666362, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 52.62828309666362, "required_final_county_share_points": 52.62828309666362, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.10597932088248406, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -1.2218873416206506, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.0017647701803171578, "criticality_score": 0.001444298602829009, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1304.7989125588015, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 2390.970001758374, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 2958.730876589271, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Mallory McMorrow": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 4.442654652564292, "expected_final_county_share_points": 4.442654652564292, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 34.20747998892426, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 34.20747998892426, "required_final_county_share_points": 34.20747998892426, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 34.20747998892426, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 25662.231588016784, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 34.20747998892426, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 34.20747998892426, "required_final_county_share_points": 34.20747998892426, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 34.20747998892426, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 34.77966281710158, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 34.77966281710158, "required_final_county_share_points": 34.77966281710158, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.159018308558073, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999906, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 35.348458241679495, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 35.348458241679495, "required_final_county_share_points": 35.348458241679495, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.213613509684069, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.999999999999993, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -29.76482533635997, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "WELL BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.0017647701803171578, "criticality_score": 5.9290459808657386e-05, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1259.130157779888, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 2345.3012469794608, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 2913.0621218103574, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } } } }, { "cid": "fips:26035", "county": "Clare", "fips": "26035", "reporting": 24.98, "current_votes": 650, "current_candidate_votes": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 235, "Haley Stevens": 378, "Mallory McMorrow": 37 }, "current_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 36.15384615384615, "Haley Stevens": 58.15384615384615, "Mallory McMorrow": 5.6923076923076925 }, "estimated_remaining_votes": 2166.5414109746685, "estimated_final_votes": 2816.5414109746685, "turnout_disagreement_votes": 4.547473508864641e-13, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 42.38135594609147, "Haley Stevens": 52.81051457809568, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.808129475812841 }, "remaining_sources": [ { "model": "v3", "remaining_votes": 2166.541410974669, "weight": 0.1342208488636769 }, { "model": "histgeo", "remaining_votes": 2166.541410974669, "weight": 0.05994207394479305 }, { "model": "latent", "remaining_votes": 2166.541410974669, "weight": 0.07672787409296966 }, { "model": "batchbias", "remaining_votes": 2166.541410974669, "weight": 0.045123489075924846 } ], "share_sources": [ { "model": "v0", "weight": 0.03630604611298715, "source": "statewide raw" }, { "model": "v1", "weight": 0.14599140026529184, "source": "county live" }, { "model": "v3", "weight": 0.15004242351696637, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "market", "weight": 0.0786646379365536, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "histgeo", "weight": 0.06573339512824654, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "latent", "weight": 0.08483492578364633, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "batchbias", "weight": 0.04883898267529022, "source": "county remaining" } ], "candidate_benchmarks": { "Abdul El-Sayed": { "opponent": "Haley Stevens", "expected_remaining_share_points": 42.38135594609147, "expected_final_county_share_points": 40.94417439101585, "current_county_share_points": 36.15384615384615, "recent_batch_votes": 253, "recent_batch_share_points": 37.15415019762846, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 41.177752821799324, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 41.177752821799324, "required_final_county_share_points": 40.01833818601753, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 41.177752821799324, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": -1023.2713457807967, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": false }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 41.177752821799324, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 41.177752821799324, "required_final_county_share_points": 40.01833818601753, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 41.177752821799324, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 41.81678908809404, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 41.81678908809404, "required_final_county_share_points": 40.50989798650455, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.024044322225107804, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999973, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 42.45801255709152, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 42.45801255709152, "required_final_county_share_points": 41.0031402281626, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.003259695682198218, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.9999999999999996, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": 1.2036031242921439, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -4.023602624170863, "status": "ABOVE", "recent_status": "WELL BELOW", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.0017647701803171576, "criticality_score": 0.001466239281619549, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -1212.3061471812323, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -126.13505798165906, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 441.6258168492374, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Haley Stevens": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 52.81051457809568, "expected_final_county_share_points": 54.04364593228227, "current_county_share_points": 58.15384615384615, "recent_batch_votes": 253, "recent_batch_share_points": 55.73122529644269, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 54.01411770238782, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 54.01411770238782, "required_final_county_share_points": 54.9694821372806, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 54.01411770238782, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1118.463216304984, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 54.01411770238782, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 54.01411770238782, "required_final_county_share_points": 54.9694821372806, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 54.01411770238782, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 54.650971632401145, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 54.650971632401145, "required_final_county_share_points": 55.4593632399477, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.07865391656842785, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.999999999999999, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 55.28564809133886, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 55.28564809133886, "required_final_county_share_points": 55.94756938721094, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.10597932088248406, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -1.2036031242921439, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": 1.7171075940548661, "status": "BELOW", "recent_status": "ABOVE", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.0017647701803171576, "criticality_score": 0.001466239281619549, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1307.4980177054194, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 2393.669106904992, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 2961.429981735889, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Mallory McMorrow": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 4.808129475812841, "expected_final_county_share_points": 5.012179676701871, "current_county_share_points": 5.6923076923076925, "recent_batch_votes": 253, "recent_batch_share_points": 7.114624505928854, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 33.82748144262121, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 33.82748144262121, "required_final_county_share_points": 27.334460297451812, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 33.82748144262121, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 25662.597062840036, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 33.82748144262121, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 33.82748144262121, "required_final_county_share_points": 27.334460297451812, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 33.82748144262121, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 34.3363603894186, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 34.3363603894186, "required_final_county_share_points": 27.725900418699023, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.159018308558073, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999906, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 34.84055919859703, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 34.84055919859703, "required_final_county_share_points": 28.11374048211607, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.213613509684069, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.999999999999993, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -29.019351966808372, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -26.712856936692358, "status": "WELL BELOW", "recent_status": "WELL BELOW", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.0017647701803171576, "criticality_score": 6.081356269897614e-05, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1259.4956326031365, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 2345.666721802709, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 2913.4275966336063, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } } } }, { "cid": "26015", "county": "26015", "fips": null, "reporting": 0.0, "current_votes": 0, "current_candidate_votes": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 0, "Haley Stevens": 0, "Mallory McMorrow": 0 }, "current_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": null, "Haley Stevens": null, "Mallory McMorrow": null }, "estimated_remaining_votes": 2084.356984925492, "estimated_final_votes": 2084.356984925492, "turnout_disagreement_votes": 0.0, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 46.64391631668367, "Haley Stevens": 48.84379756353746, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.512286119778873 }, "remaining_sources": [ { "model": "market", "remaining_votes": 2084.356984925492, "weight": 0.1780093144963334 } ], "share_sources": [ { "model": "v0", "weight": 0.03630604611298715, "source": "statewide raw" }, { "model": "v3", "weight": 0.06301781787712588, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "market", "weight": 0.18729675699179427, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "histgeo", "weight": 0.02760802595386354, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "latent", "weight": 0.03563066882913146, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "batchbias", "weight": 0.020512372723621893, "source": "statewide fallback" } ], "candidate_benchmarks": { "Abdul El-Sayed": { "opponent": "Haley Stevens", "expected_remaining_share_points": 46.64391631668367, "expected_final_county_share_points": 46.64391631668368, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 45.41984231326979, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 45.41984231326979, "required_final_county_share_points": 45.41984231326979, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 45.41984231326979, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": -1061.0265665736888, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": false }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 45.41984231326979, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 45.41984231326979, "required_final_county_share_points": 45.41984231326979, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 45.41984231326979, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 46.07042309822127, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 46.07042309822127, "required_final_county_share_points": 46.07042309822127, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.024044322225107804, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999973, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 46.72169308870616, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 46.72169308870616, "required_final_county_share_points": 46.72169308870616, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.003259695682198218, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.9999999999999996, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": 1.2240740034138824, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "ABOVE", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.0016978263297895927, "criticality_score": 0.0013870291543276291, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -1257.5148496803638, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -128.51695672180443, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 461.63024730731416, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Haley Stevens": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 48.84379756353746, "expected_final_county_share_points": 48.84379756353745, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 50.067871566951325, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 50.067871566951325, "required_final_county_share_points": 50.067871566951325, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 50.067871566951325, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1156.5142804539098, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 50.067871566951325, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 50.067871566951325, "required_final_county_share_points": 50.067871566951325, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 50.067871566951325, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 50.71775779792909, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 50.71775779792909, "required_final_county_share_points": 50.71775779792909, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.07865391656842785, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.999999999999999, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 51.36694414022603, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 51.36694414022603, "required_final_county_share_points": 51.36694414022603, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.10597932088248406, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -1.2240740034138682, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.0016978263297895927, "criticality_score": 0.0013870291543276452, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1353.002563560585, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 2482.000456519144, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 3072.147660548263, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Mallory McMorrow": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 4.512286119778873, "expected_final_county_share_points": 4.5122861197788735, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 34.96102339891444, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 34.96102339891444, "required_final_county_share_points": 34.96102339891444, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 34.96102339891444, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 26673.966050618885, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 34.96102339891444, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 34.96102339891444, "required_final_county_share_points": 34.96102339891444, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 34.96102339891444, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 35.55008673250949, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 35.55008673250949, "required_final_county_share_points": 35.55008673250949, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.159018308558073, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999906, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 36.135803215185874, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 36.135803215185874, "required_final_county_share_points": 36.135803215185874, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.213613509684069, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.999999999999993, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -30.44873727913557, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "WELL BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.0016978263297895927, "criticality_score": 5.576015564208623e-05, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1308.6710521168263, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 2437.668945075385, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 3027.8161491045043, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } } } }, { "cid": "fips:26015", "county": "Barry", "fips": "26015", "reporting": 51.57000000000001, "current_votes": 3040, "current_candidate_votes": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 1226, "Haley Stevens": 1638, "Mallory McMorrow": 176 }, "current_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 40.328947368421055, "Haley Stevens": 53.881578947368425, "Mallory McMorrow": 5.7894736842105265 }, "estimated_remaining_votes": 2084.3569849254914, "estimated_final_votes": 5124.356984925491, "turnout_disagreement_votes": 4.547473508864641e-13, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 43.49244399419316, "Haley Stevens": 51.41126400606495, "Mallory McMorrow": 5.096291999741883 }, "remaining_sources": [ { "model": "v3", "remaining_votes": 2084.356984925492, "weight": 0.1342208488636769 }, { "model": "histgeo", "remaining_votes": 2084.356984925492, "weight": 0.05994207394479305 }, { "model": "latent", "remaining_votes": 2084.356984925492, "weight": 0.07672787409296966 }, { "model": "batchbias", "remaining_votes": 2084.356984925492, "weight": 0.045123489075924846 } ], "share_sources": [ { "model": "v0", "weight": 0.03630604611298715, "source": "statewide raw" }, { "model": "v1", "weight": 0.14599140026529184, "source": "county live" }, { "model": "v3", "weight": 0.15004242351696637, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "market", "weight": 0.0786646379365536, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "histgeo", "weight": 0.06573339512824654, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "latent", "weight": 0.08483492578364633, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "batchbias", "weight": 0.04883898267529022, "source": "county remaining" } ], "candidate_benchmarks": { "Abdul El-Sayed": { "opponent": "Haley Stevens", "expected_remaining_share_points": 43.49244399419316, "expected_final_county_share_points": 41.6157149195721, "current_county_share_points": 40.328947368421055, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 42.28555517742893, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 42.28555517742893, "required_final_county_share_points": 41.12480705685856, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 42.28555517742893, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": -1064.1780388961795, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": false }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 42.28555517742893, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 42.28555517742893, "required_final_county_share_points": 41.12480705685856, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 42.28555517742893, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 42.92653693266351, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 42.92653693266351, "required_final_county_share_points": 41.38552948557757, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.024044322225107804, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999973, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 43.56925521223996, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 43.56925521223996, "required_final_county_share_points": 41.64695825397044, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.003259695682198218, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.9999999999999996, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": 1.206888816764227, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "ABOVE", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.0016978263297895923, "criticality_score": 0.0014067794035424166, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -1260.6663220028547, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -131.66842904429498, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 458.47877498482376, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Haley Stevens": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 51.41126400606495, "expected_final_county_share_points": 52.876766398590355, "current_county_share_points": 53.881578947368425, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 52.61815282282918, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 52.61815282282918, "required_final_county_share_points": 53.3676742613039, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 52.61815282282918, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1159.0817468964374, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 52.61815282282918, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 52.61815282282918, "required_final_county_share_points": 53.3676742613039, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 52.61815282282918, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 53.257398750735874, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 53.257398750735874, "required_final_county_share_points": 53.62769063386287, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.07865391656842785, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.999999999999999, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 53.89490956766841, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 53.89490956766841, "required_final_county_share_points": 53.88700124164211, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.10597932088248406, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -1.2068888167642342, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.0016978263297895923, "criticality_score": 0.0014067794035424082, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1355.5700300031128, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 2484.567922961672, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 3074.715126990791, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Mallory McMorrow": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 5.096291999741883, "expected_final_county_share_points": 5.507518681837553, "current_county_share_points": 5.7894736842105265, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 35.14709742579091, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 35.14709742579091, "required_final_county_share_points": 17.730829114089357, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 35.14709742579091, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 26674.550056498854, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 35.14709742579091, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 35.14709742579091, "required_final_county_share_points": 17.730829114089357, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 35.14709742579091, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 35.66348316440048, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 35.66348316440048, "required_final_county_share_points": 17.940871510501832, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.159018308558073, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999906, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 36.17476739848637, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 36.17476739848637, "required_final_county_share_points": 18.148838845278508, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.213613509684069, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.999999999999993, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -30.050805426049028, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "WELL BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.0016978263297895923, "criticality_score": 5.6498529930178197e-05, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1309.2550579967897, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 2438.252950955349, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 3028.400154984468, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } } } }, { "cid": "26117", "county": "26117", "fips": null, "reporting": 0.0, "current_votes": 0, "current_candidate_votes": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 0, "Haley Stevens": 0, "Mallory McMorrow": 0 }, "current_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": null, "Haley Stevens": null, "Mallory McMorrow": null }, "estimated_remaining_votes": 2083.0147443372043, "estimated_final_votes": 2083.0147443372043, "turnout_disagreement_votes": 0.0, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 45.958200225979986, "Haley Stevens": 50.22991264466877, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.8118871293512493 }, "remaining_sources": [ { "model": "market", "remaining_votes": 2083.0147443372043, "weight": 0.1780093144963334 } ], "share_sources": [ { "model": "v0", "weight": 0.03630604611298715, "source": "statewide raw" }, { "model": "v3", "weight": 0.06301781787712588, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "market", "weight": 0.18729675699179427, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "histgeo", "weight": 0.02760802595386354, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "latent", "weight": 0.03563066882913146, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "batchbias", "weight": 0.020512372723621893, "source": "statewide fallback" } ], "candidate_benchmarks": { "Abdul El-Sayed": { "opponent": "Haley Stevens", "expected_remaining_share_points": 45.958200225979986, "expected_final_county_share_points": 45.95820022597999, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 44.727600691994006, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 44.727600691994006, "required_final_county_share_points": 44.727600691994006, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 44.727600691994006, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": -1062.4260367482882, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": false }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 44.727600691994006, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 44.727600691994006, "required_final_county_share_points": 44.727600691994006, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 44.727600691994006, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 45.38148176988802, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 45.38148176988802, "required_final_county_share_points": 45.38148176988802, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.024044322225107804, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999973, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 46.03643721715968, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 46.03643721715968, "required_final_county_share_points": 46.03643721715968, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.003259695682198218, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.9999999999999996, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": 1.2305995339859805, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "ABOVE", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.0016967329991230188, "criticality_score": 0.0013787856668750766, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -1259.0409318001853, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -129.31554192873077, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 461.21193762770497, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Haley Stevens": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 50.22991264466877, "expected_final_county_share_points": 50.22991264466878, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 51.46051217865475, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 51.46051217865475, "required_final_county_share_points": 51.46051217865475, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 51.46051217865475, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1158.6141496189368, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 51.46051217865475, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 51.46051217865475, "required_final_county_share_points": 51.46051217865475, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 51.46051217865475, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 52.11331505963304, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 52.11331505963304, "required_final_county_share_points": 52.11331505963304, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.07865391656842785, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.999999999999999, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 52.76503593863689, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 52.76503593863689, "required_final_county_share_points": 52.76503593863689, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.10597932088248406, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -1.2305995339859805, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.0016967329991230188, "criticality_score": 0.0013787856668750766, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1355.229044670834, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 2484.954434542288, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 3075.481914098724, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Mallory McMorrow": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 3.8118871293512493, "expected_final_county_share_points": 3.8118871293512493, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 32.31217232095501, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 32.31217232095501, "required_final_county_share_points": 32.31217232095501, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 32.31217232095501, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 26690.450754810023, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 32.31217232095501, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 32.31217232095501, "required_final_county_share_points": 32.31217232095501, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 32.31217232095501, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 32.9164985925134, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 32.9164985925134, "required_final_county_share_points": 32.9164985925134, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.159018308558073, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999906, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 33.51957975430659, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 33.51957975430659, "required_final_county_share_points": 33.51957975430659, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.213613509684069, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.999999999999993, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -28.50028519160376, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "WELL BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.0016967329991230188, "criticality_score": 5.9533895458101583e-05, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1308.8110191555165, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 2438.5364090269704, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 3029.0638885834064, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } } } }, { "cid": "fips:26117", "county": "Montcalm", "fips": "26117", "reporting": 63.12, "current_votes": 3207, "current_candidate_votes": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 1280, "Haley Stevens": 1803, "Mallory McMorrow": 124 }, "current_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 39.91269098846274, "Haley Stevens": 56.22076707202993, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.8665419395073277 }, "estimated_remaining_votes": 2083.0147443372043, "estimated_final_votes": 5290.014744337204, "turnout_disagreement_votes": 0.0, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 42.80737331678564, "Haley Stevens": 53.346561235940285, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.846065447274072 }, "remaining_sources": [ { "model": "v3", "remaining_votes": 2083.0147443372043, "weight": 0.1342208488636769 }, { "model": "histgeo", "remaining_votes": 2083.0147443372043, "weight": 0.05994207394479305 }, { "model": "latent", "remaining_votes": 2083.0147443372043, "weight": 0.07672787409296966 }, { "model": "batchbias", "remaining_votes": 2083.0147443372043, "weight": 0.045123489075924846 } ], "share_sources": [ { "model": "v0", "weight": 0.03630604611298715, "source": "statewide raw" }, { "model": "v1", "weight": 0.14599140026529184, "source": "county live" }, { "model": "v3", "weight": 0.15004242351696637, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "market", "weight": 0.0786646379365536, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "histgeo", "weight": 0.06573339512824654, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "latent", "weight": 0.08483492578364633, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "batchbias", "weight": 0.04883898267529022, "source": "county remaining" } ], "candidate_benchmarks": { "Abdul El-Sayed": { "opponent": "Haley Stevens", "expected_remaining_share_points": 42.80737331678564, "expected_final_county_share_points": 41.05251124634076, "current_county_share_points": 39.91269098846274, "recent_batch_votes": 860, "recent_batch_share_points": 41.27906976744186, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 41.59162035676937, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 41.59162035676937, "required_final_county_share_points": 40.573792100255886, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 41.59162035676937, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": -1065.5768636574817, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": false }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 41.59162035676937, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 41.59162035676937, "required_final_county_share_points": 40.573792100255886, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 41.59162035676937, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 42.237107035777385, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 42.237107035777385, "required_final_county_share_points": 40.82796119705968, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.024044322225107804, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999973, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 42.88480384344459, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 42.88480384344459, "required_final_county_share_points": 41.08300056186961, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.003259695682198218, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.9999999999999996, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": 1.2157529600162746, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -0.31255058932750757, "status": "ABOVE", "recent_status": "ON BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.0016967329991230188, "criticality_score": 0.0013956231692829318, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -1262.1917587093794, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -132.46636883792513, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 458.06111071851063, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Haley Stevens": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 53.346561235940285, "expected_final_county_share_points": 55.08900970949258, "current_county_share_points": 56.22076707202993, "recent_batch_votes": 860, "recent_batch_share_points": 56.04651162790698, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 54.56231419595655, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 54.56231419595655, "required_final_county_share_points": 55.56772885557746, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 54.56231419595655, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1161.7307982102077, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 54.56231419595655, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 54.56231419595655, "required_final_county_share_points": 55.56772885557746, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 54.56231419595655, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 55.20559567050708, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 55.20559567050708, "required_final_county_share_points": 55.82102962334603, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.07865391656842785, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.999999999999999, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 55.84667686351869, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 55.84667686351869, "required_final_county_share_points": 56.07346400054507, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.10597932088248406, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -1.2157529600162675, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": 1.4841974319504274, "status": "BELOW", "recent_status": "ABOVE", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.0016967329991230188, "criticality_score": 0.00139562316928294, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1358.3456932621054, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 2488.0710831335596, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 3078.5985626899956, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Mallory McMorrow": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 3.846065447274072, "expected_final_county_share_points": 3.858479044166661, "current_county_share_points": 3.8665419395073277, "recent_batch_votes": 860, "recent_batch_share_points": 2.6744186046511627, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 31.12770222751637, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 31.12770222751637, "required_final_county_share_points": 14.60099194996329, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 31.12770222751637, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 26690.484933127955, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 31.12770222751637, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 31.12770222751637, "required_final_county_share_points": 14.60099194996329, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 31.12770222751637, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 31.679501030689057, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 31.679501030689057, "required_final_county_share_points": 14.81827018045343, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.159018308558073, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999906, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 32.22911009206892, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 32.22911009206892, "required_final_county_share_points": 15.034686170541377, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.213613509684069, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.999999999999993, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -27.281636780242298, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -28.453283622865207, "status": "WELL BELOW", "recent_status": "WELL BELOW", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.0016967329991230188, "criticality_score": 6.219322589734843e-05, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1308.8451974734392, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 2438.5705873448933, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 3029.0980669013293, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } } } }, { "cid": "fips:26007", "county": "Alpena", "fips": "26007", "reporting": 58.050000000000004, "current_votes": 2009, "current_candidate_votes": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 978, "Haley Stevens": 912, "Mallory McMorrow": 119 }, "current_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 48.680935788949725, "Haley Stevens": 45.39571926331508, "Mallory McMorrow": 5.923344947735192 }, "estimated_remaining_votes": 1885.4507611674164, "estimated_final_votes": 3894.450761167416, "turnout_disagreement_votes": 2.2737367544323206e-13, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 48.87476345856507, "Haley Stevens": 45.88735194564049, "Mallory McMorrow": 5.23788459579443 }, "remaining_sources": [ { "model": "v3", "remaining_votes": 1885.4507611674162, "weight": 0.1342208488636769 }, { "model": "histgeo", "remaining_votes": 1885.4507611674162, "weight": 0.05994207394479305 }, { "model": "latent", "remaining_votes": 1885.4507611674162, "weight": 0.07672787409296966 }, { "model": "batchbias", "remaining_votes": 1885.4507611674162, "weight": 0.045123489075924846 } ], "share_sources": [ { "model": "v0", "weight": 0.03630604611298715, "source": "statewide raw" }, { "model": "v1", "weight": 0.14599140026529184, "source": "county live" }, { "model": "v3", "weight": 0.15004242351696637, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "market", "weight": 0.0786646379365536, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "histgeo", "weight": 0.06573339512824654, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "latent", "weight": 0.08483492578364633, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "batchbias", "weight": 0.04883898267529022, "source": "county remaining" } ], "candidate_benchmarks": { "Abdul El-Sayed": { "opponent": "Haley Stevens", "expected_remaining_share_points": 48.87476345856507, "expected_final_county_share_points": 48.774775087383176, "current_county_share_points": 48.680935788949725, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 47.65885199838829, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 47.65885199838829, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.18610640758832, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 47.65885199838829, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": -1175.6497669931387, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": false }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 47.65885199838829, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 47.65885199838829, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.18610640758832, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 47.65885199838829, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.30551854728727, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.30551854728727, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.49918211751913, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.024044322225107804, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999973, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.95190659218088, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.95190659218088, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.81212299313797, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.003259695682198218, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.9999999999999996, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": 1.2159114601767769, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "ABOVE", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.001535805991480053, "criticality_score": 0.0012630903168366944, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -1392.8666436066842, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -144.76476122324732, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 507.6402085521047, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Haley Stevens": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 45.88735194564049, "expected_final_county_share_points": 45.633737220647625, "current_county_share_points": 45.39571926331508, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 47.103263405817266, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 47.103263405817266, "required_final_county_share_points": 46.22240590044248, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 47.103263405817266, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1270.4118823973442, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 47.103263405817266, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 47.103263405817266, "required_final_county_share_points": 46.22240590044248, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 47.103263405817266, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 47.750202221307795, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 47.750202221307795, "required_final_county_share_points": 46.53561342491756, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.07865391656842785, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.999999999999999, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.39740704390426, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.39740704390426, "required_final_county_share_points": 46.84894973348344, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.10597932088248406, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -1.2159114601767769, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.001535805991480053, "criticality_score": 0.0012630903168366944, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1487.6287590108896, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 2735.730641394326, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 3388.135611169678, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Mallory McMorrow": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 5.23788459579443, "expected_final_county_share_points": 5.591487691969201, "current_county_share_points": 5.923344947735192, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 38.15721357611214, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 38.15721357611214, "required_final_county_share_points": 21.528978673227606, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 38.15721357611214, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 29488.194100202436, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 38.15721357611214, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 38.15721357611214, "required_final_county_share_points": 21.528978673227606, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 38.15721357611214, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 38.75531521341979, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 38.75531521341979, "required_final_county_share_points": 21.818542274483445, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.159018308558073, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999906, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 39.348650337640095, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 39.348650337640095, "required_final_county_share_points": 22.105798226656066, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.213613509684069, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.999999999999993, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -32.919328980317715, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "WELL BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.001535805991480053, "criticality_score": 4.665362384507603e-05, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1446.9792916610436, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 2695.08117404448, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 3347.4861438198323, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } } } }, { "cid": "26007", "county": "26007", "fips": null, "reporting": 0.0, "current_votes": 0, "current_candidate_votes": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 0, "Haley Stevens": 0, "Mallory McMorrow": 0 }, "current_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": null, "Haley Stevens": null, "Mallory McMorrow": null }, "estimated_remaining_votes": 1885.4507611674164, "estimated_final_votes": 1885.4507611674164, "turnout_disagreement_votes": 2.2737367544323206e-13, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 48.74909884299047, "Haley Stevens": 46.39513307510219, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.85576808190735 }, "remaining_sources": [ { "model": "market", "remaining_votes": 1885.4507611674162, "weight": 0.1780093144963334 } ], "share_sources": [ { "model": "v0", "weight": 0.03630604611298715, "source": "statewide raw" }, { "model": "v3", "weight": 0.06301781787712588, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "market", "weight": 0.18729675699179427, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "histgeo", "weight": 0.02760802595386354, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "latent", "weight": 0.03563066882913146, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "batchbias", "weight": 0.020512372723621893, "source": "statewide fallback" } ], "candidate_benchmarks": { "Abdul El-Sayed": { "opponent": "Haley Stevens", "expected_remaining_share_points": 48.74909884299047, "expected_final_county_share_points": 48.74909884299047, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 47.52803068647186, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 47.52803068647186, "required_final_county_share_points": 47.52803068647186, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 47.52803068647186, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": -1175.7754316087141, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": false }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 47.52803068647186, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 47.52803068647186, "required_final_county_share_points": 47.52803068647186, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 47.52803068647186, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.17738677593538, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.17738677593538, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.177386775935375, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.024044322225107804, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999973, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.82658349959149, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.82658349959149, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.82658349959149, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.003259695682198218, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.9999999999999996, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": 1.2210681565186121, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "ABOVE", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.001535805991480053, "criticality_score": 0.001257756156592266, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -1392.9923082222588, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -144.89042583882193, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 507.51454393653006, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Haley Stevens": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 46.39513307510219, "expected_final_county_share_points": 46.39513307510219, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 47.6162012316208, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 47.6162012316208, "required_final_county_share_points": 47.6162012316208, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 47.6162012316208, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1270.9196635268067, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 47.6162012316208, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 47.6162012316208, "required_final_county_share_points": 47.6162012316208, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 47.6162012316208, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.26571030323427, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.26571030323427, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.26571030323427, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.07865391656842785, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.999999999999999, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.915365955839, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.915365955839, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.91536595583901, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.10597932088248406, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -1.2210681565186121, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.001535805991480053, "criticality_score": 0.001257756156592266, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1488.1365401403514, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 2736.2384225237874, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 3388.6433922991396, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Mallory McMorrow": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 4.85576808190735, "expected_final_county_share_points": 4.85576808190735, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 36.97153175493867, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 36.97153175493867, "required_final_county_share_points": 36.97153175493867, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 36.97153175493867, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 29487.81198368855, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 36.97153175493867, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 36.97153175493867, "required_final_county_share_points": 36.97153175493867, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 36.97153175493867, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 37.581893983030355, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 37.581893983030355, "required_final_county_share_points": 37.581893983030355, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.159018308558073, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999906, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 38.188383587640025, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 38.188383587640025, "required_final_county_share_points": 38.188383587640025, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.213613509684069, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.999999999999993, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -32.11576367303132, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "WELL BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.001535805991480053, "criticality_score": 4.782093949613039e-05, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1446.5971751471566, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 2694.6990575305927, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 3347.104027305945, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } } } }, { "cid": "26053", "county": "26053", "fips": null, "reporting": 0.0, "current_votes": 0, "current_candidate_votes": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 0, "Haley Stevens": 0, "Mallory McMorrow": 0 }, "current_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": null, "Haley Stevens": null, "Mallory McMorrow": null }, "estimated_remaining_votes": 1803.7504679250026, "estimated_final_votes": 1803.7504679250026, "turnout_disagreement_votes": 2.2737367544323206e-13, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 49.18170843815538, "Haley Stevens": 45.45365704777212, "Mallory McMorrow": 5.364634514072509 }, "remaining_sources": [ { "model": "market", "remaining_votes": 1803.7504679250023, "weight": 0.1780093144963334 } ], "share_sources": [ { "model": "v0", "weight": 0.03630604611298715, "source": "statewide raw" }, { "model": "v3", "weight": 0.06301781787712588, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "market", "weight": 0.18729675699179427, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "histgeo", "weight": 0.02760802595386354, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "latent", "weight": 0.03563066882913146, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "batchbias", "weight": 0.020512372723621893, "source": "statewide fallback" } ], "candidate_benchmarks": { "Abdul El-Sayed": { "opponent": "Haley Stevens", "expected_remaining_share_points": 49.18170843815538, "expected_final_county_share_points": 49.18170843815538, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 47.967856258444506, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 47.967856258444506, "required_final_county_share_points": 47.967856258444506, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 47.967856258444506, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": -1230.8072640189469, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": false }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 47.967856258444506, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 47.967856258444506, "required_final_county_share_points": 47.967856258444506, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 47.967856258444506, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.61348870054192, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.61348870054192, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.61348870054192, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.024044322225107804, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999973, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 49.258704367844174, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 49.258704367844174, "required_final_county_share_points": 49.258704367844174, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.003259695682198218, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.9999999999999996, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": 1.2138521797108766, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "ABOVE", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.0014692564944305063, "criticality_score": 0.0012104080867412239, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -1457.8629087060717, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -153.2286557977696, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 528.7267857813522, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Haley Stevens": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 45.45365704777212, "expected_final_county_share_points": 45.45365704777211, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 46.667509227482995, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 46.667509227482995, "required_final_county_share_points": 46.667509227482995, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 46.667509227482995, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1325.4426295048745, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 46.667509227482995, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 46.667509227482995, "required_final_county_share_points": 46.667509227482995, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 46.667509227482995, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 47.31355243907429, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 47.31355243907429, "required_final_county_share_points": 47.31355243907429, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.07865391656842785, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.999999999999999, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 47.96000038765792, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 47.96000038765792, "required_final_county_share_points": 47.96000038765792, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.10597932088248406, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -1.2138521797108766, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.0014692564944305063, "criticality_score": 0.0012104080867412239, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1552.4982741919991, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 2857.1325271003006, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 3539.087968679423, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Mallory McMorrow": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 5.364634514072509, "expected_final_county_share_points": 5.364634514072509, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 38.66247254553269, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 38.66247254553269, "required_final_county_share_points": 38.66247254553269, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 38.66247254553269, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 30823.741802908775, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 38.66247254553269, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 38.66247254553269, "required_final_county_share_points": 38.66247254553269, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 38.66247254553269, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 39.2608626515715, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 39.2608626515715, "required_final_county_share_points": 39.2608626515715, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.159018308558073, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999906, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 39.85425418481526, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 39.85425418481526, "required_final_county_share_points": 39.85425418481526, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.213613509684069, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.999999999999993, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -33.29783803146018, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "WELL BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.0014692564944305063, "criticality_score": 4.412468139950515e-05, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1512.4092516582996, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 2817.043504566601, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 3498.998946145723, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } } } }, { "cid": "fips:26053", "county": "Gogebic", "fips": "26053", "reporting": 12.08, "current_votes": 281, "current_candidate_votes": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 137, "Haley Stevens": 118, "Mallory McMorrow": 26 }, "current_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 48.754448398576514, "Haley Stevens": 41.99288256227758, "Mallory McMorrow": 9.252669039145907 }, "estimated_remaining_votes": 1803.7504679250026, "estimated_final_votes": 2084.7504679250023, "turnout_disagreement_votes": 2.2737367544323206e-13, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 48.98109738774873, "Haley Stevens": 44.79657419156991, "Mallory McMorrow": 6.222328420681346 }, "remaining_sources": [ { "model": "v3", "remaining_votes": 1803.7504679250023, "weight": 0.1342208488636769 }, { "model": "histgeo", "remaining_votes": 1803.7504679250023, "weight": 0.05994207394479305 }, { "model": "latent", "remaining_votes": 1803.7504679250023, "weight": 0.07672787409296966 }, { "model": "batchbias", "remaining_votes": 1803.7504679250023, "weight": 0.045123489075924846 } ], "share_sources": [ { "model": "v0", "weight": 0.03630604611298715, "source": "statewide raw" }, { "model": "v1", "weight": 0.14599140026529184, "source": "county live" }, { "model": "v3", "weight": 0.15004242351696637, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "market", "weight": 0.0786646379365536, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "histgeo", "weight": 0.06573339512824654, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "latent", "weight": 0.08483492578364633, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "batchbias", "weight": 0.04883898267529022, "source": "county remaining" } ], "candidate_benchmarks": { "Abdul El-Sayed": { "opponent": "Haley Stevens", "expected_remaining_share_points": 48.98109738774873, "expected_final_county_share_points": 48.9505477527026, "current_county_share_points": 48.754448398576514, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 47.77861414884298, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 47.77861414884298, "required_final_county_share_points": 47.910145201788644, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 47.77861414884298, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": -1231.0078750693542, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": false }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 47.77861414884298, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 47.77861414884298, "required_final_county_share_points": 47.910145201788644, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 47.77861414884298, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.41823981475325, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.41823981475325, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.46355680280908, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.024044322225107804, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999973, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 49.05736127840411, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 49.05736127840411, "required_final_county_share_points": 49.01653216214241, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.003259695682198218, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.9999999999999996, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": 1.2024832389057494, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "ABOVE", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.0014692564944305063, "criticality_score": 0.0012218519534355576, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -1458.0635197564782, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -153.42926684817627, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 528.5261747309455, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Haley Stevens": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 44.79657419156991, "expected_final_county_share_points": 44.41866932479931, "current_county_share_points": 41.99288256227758, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 45.99905743047566, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 45.99905743047566, "required_final_county_share_points": 45.45907187571326, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 45.99905743047566, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1324.785546648673, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 45.99905743047566, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 45.99905743047566, "required_final_county_share_points": 45.45907187571326, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 45.99905743047566, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 46.639181544542666, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 46.639181544542666, "required_final_county_share_points": 46.012914739903934, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.07865391656842785, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.999999999999999, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 47.279798322496156, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 47.279798322496156, "required_final_county_share_points": 46.56718386264664, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.10597932088248406, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -1.2024832389057494, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.0014692564944305063, "criticality_score": 0.0012218519534355576, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1551.841191335797, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 2856.4754442440985, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 3538.4308858232207, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Mallory McMorrow": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 6.222328420681346, "expected_final_county_share_points": 6.630782922498095, "current_county_share_points": 9.252669039145907, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 40.80800943377436, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 40.80800943377436, "required_final_county_share_points": 36.55471831461411, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 40.80800943377436, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 30824.599496815375, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 40.80800943377436, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 40.80800943377436, "required_final_county_share_points": 36.55471831461411, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 40.80800943377436, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 41.37269393957982, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 41.37269393957982, "required_final_county_share_points": 37.043289948124944, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.159018308558073, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999906, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 41.93086349656179, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 41.93086349656179, "required_final_county_share_points": 37.526224771777876, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.213613509684069, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.999999999999993, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -34.585681013093016, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "WELL BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.0014692564944305063, "criticality_score": 4.248164128600774e-05, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1513.2669455649084, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 2817.9011984732097, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 3499.856640052332, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } } } }, { "cid": "fips:26071", "county": "Iron", "fips": "26071", "reporting": 0.0, "current_votes": 0, "current_candidate_votes": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 0, "Haley Stevens": 0, "Mallory McMorrow": 0 }, "current_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": null, "Haley Stevens": null, "Mallory McMorrow": null }, "estimated_remaining_votes": 1664.049750378701, "estimated_final_votes": 1664.049750378701, "turnout_disagreement_votes": 0.0, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 49.0757394697093, "Haley Stevens": 47.03656679753884, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.8876937327518637 }, "remaining_sources": [ { "model": "v3", "remaining_votes": 1664.049750378701, "weight": 0.1342208488636769 }, { "model": "histgeo", "remaining_votes": 1664.049750378701, "weight": 0.05994207394479305 }, { "model": "latent", "remaining_votes": 1664.049750378701, "weight": 0.07672787409296966 }, { "model": "batchbias", "remaining_votes": 1664.049750378701, "weight": 0.045123489075924846 } ], "share_sources": [ { "model": "v0", "weight": 0.03630604611298715, "source": "statewide raw" }, { "model": "v3", "weight": 0.15004242351696637, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "market", "weight": 0.0786646379365536, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "histgeo", "weight": 0.06573339512824654, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "latent", "weight": 0.08483492578364633, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "batchbias", "weight": 0.04883898267529022, "source": "county remaining" } ], "candidate_benchmarks": { "Abdul El-Sayed": { "opponent": "Haley Stevens", "expected_remaining_share_points": 49.0757394697093, "expected_final_county_share_points": 49.0757394697093, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 47.84215892429268, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 47.84215892429268, "required_final_county_share_points": 47.84215892429268, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 47.84215892429268, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": -1338.3711848081925, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": false }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 47.84215892429268, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 47.84215892429268, "required_final_county_share_points": 47.84215892429268, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 47.84215892429268, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.49814121865617, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.49814121865617, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.49814121865617, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.024044322225107804, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999973, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 49.15402565364959, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 49.15402565364959, "required_final_county_share_points": 49.15402565364959, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.003259695682198218, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.9999999999999996, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": 1.2335805454166149, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "ABOVE", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.001355462380343524, "criticality_score": 0.0010988033050454327, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -1584.488661317661, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -170.32742988885806, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 568.8797041360738, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Haley Stevens": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 47.03656679753884, "expected_final_county_share_points": 47.03656679753884, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.270147342955454, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.270147342955454, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.270147342955454, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 48.270147342955454, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1434.4834910754407, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.270147342955454, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.270147342955454, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.270147342955454, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 48.270147342955454, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.92622101144557, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.92622101144557, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.92622101144557, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.07865391656842785, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.999999999999999, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 49.58237955362736, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 49.58237955362736, "required_final_county_share_points": 49.58237955362736, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.10597932088248406, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -1.2335805454166149, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.001355462380343524, "criticality_score": 0.0010988033050454327, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1680.600967584909, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 3094.762199013712, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 3833.969333038644, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Mallory McMorrow": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 3.8876937327518637, "expected_final_county_share_points": 3.8876937327518637, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 33.82754775397445, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 33.82754775397445, "required_final_county_share_points": 33.82754775397445, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 33.82754775397445, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 33409.53690916661, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 33.82754775397445, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 33.82754775397445, "required_final_county_share_points": 33.82754775397445, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 33.82754775397445, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 34.47957876983034, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 34.47957876983034, "required_final_county_share_points": 34.47957876983034, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.159018308558073, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999906, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 35.1309972829674, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 35.1309972829674, "required_final_county_share_points": 35.1309972829674, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.213613509684069, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.999999999999993, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -29.939854021222587, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "WELL BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.001355462380343524, "criticality_score": 4.527284533126705e-05, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1637.452094520122, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 3051.6133259489247, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 3790.820459973857, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } } } }, { "cid": "26071", "county": "26071", "fips": null, "reporting": 0.0, "current_votes": 0, "current_candidate_votes": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 0, "Haley Stevens": 0, "Mallory McMorrow": 0 }, "current_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": null, "Haley Stevens": null, "Mallory McMorrow": null }, "estimated_remaining_votes": 1664.0497503787008, "estimated_final_votes": 1664.0497503787008, "turnout_disagreement_votes": 2.2737367544323206e-13, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 48.973903537573875, "Haley Stevens": 46.149745434179586, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.8763510282465425 }, "remaining_sources": [ { "model": "market", "remaining_votes": 1664.049750378701, "weight": 0.1780093144963334 } ], "share_sources": [ { "model": "v0", "weight": 0.03630604611298715, "source": "statewide raw" }, { "model": "v3", "weight": 0.06301781787712588, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "market", "weight": 0.18729675699179427, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "histgeo", "weight": 0.02760802595386354, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "latent", "weight": 0.03563066882913146, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "batchbias", "weight": 0.020512372723621893, "source": "statewide fallback" } ], "candidate_benchmarks": { "Abdul El-Sayed": { "opponent": "Haley Stevens", "expected_remaining_share_points": 48.973903537573875, "expected_final_county_share_points": 48.973903537573875, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 47.75327342108671, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 47.75327342108671, "required_final_county_share_points": 47.75327342108671, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 47.75327342108671, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": -1338.4730207403295, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": false }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 47.75327342108671, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 47.75327342108671, "required_final_county_share_points": 47.75327342108671, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 47.75327342108671, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.402435191598066, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.402435191598066, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.402435191598066, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.024044322225107804, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999973, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 49.05134992915548, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 49.05134992915548, "required_final_county_share_points": 49.05134992915548, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.003259695682198218, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.9999999999999996, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": 1.2206301164871647, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "ABOVE", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.0013554623803435238, "criticality_score": 0.0011104611970777774, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -1584.5904972497965, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -170.42926582099352, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 568.7778682039383, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Haley Stevens": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 46.149745434179586, "expected_final_county_share_points": 46.149745434179586, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 47.37037555066674, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 47.37037555066674, "required_final_county_share_points": 47.37037555066674, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 47.37037555066674, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1433.5966697120828, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 47.37037555066674, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 47.37037555066674, "required_final_county_share_points": 47.37037555066674, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 47.37037555066674, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.01977805349677, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.01977805349677, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.01977805349677, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.07865391656842785, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.999999999999999, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.6694149671013, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.6694149671013, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.6694149671013, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.10597932088248406, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -1.2206301164871576, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.0013554623803435238, "criticality_score": 0.0011104611970777839, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1679.71414622155, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 3093.875377650353, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 3833.0825116752853, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Mallory McMorrow": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 4.8763510282465425, "expected_final_county_share_points": 4.876351028246543, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 37.136501345834354, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 37.136501345834354, "required_final_county_share_points": 37.13650134583436, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 37.136501345834354, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 33410.52556646211, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 37.136501345834354, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 37.136501345834354, "required_final_county_share_points": 37.13650134583436, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 37.136501345834354, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 37.749746513256014, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 37.749746513256014, "required_final_county_share_points": 37.749746513256014, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.159018308558073, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999906, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 38.359105897231565, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 38.359105897231565, "required_final_county_share_points": 38.359105897231565, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.213613509684069, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.999999999999993, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -32.260150317587815, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "WELL BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.0013554623803435238, "criticality_score": 4.201661700269708e-05, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1638.440751815617, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 3052.60198324442, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 3791.809117269352, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } } } }, { "cid": "26151", "county": "26151", "fips": null, "reporting": 0.0, "current_votes": 0, "current_candidate_votes": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 0, "Haley Stevens": 0, "Mallory McMorrow": 0 }, "current_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": null, "Haley Stevens": null, "Mallory McMorrow": null }, "estimated_remaining_votes": 1585.2325585258732, "estimated_final_votes": 1585.2325585258732, "turnout_disagreement_votes": 0.0, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 44.77543062705778, "Haley Stevens": 51.51673444802286, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.707834924919356 }, "remaining_sources": [ { "model": "market", "remaining_votes": 1585.2325585258732, "weight": 0.1780093144963334 } ], "share_sources": [ { "model": "v0", "weight": 0.03630604611298715, "source": "statewide raw" }, { "model": "v3", "weight": 0.06301781787712588, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "market", "weight": 0.18729675699179427, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "histgeo", "weight": 0.02760802595386354, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "latent", "weight": 0.03563066882913146, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "batchbias", "weight": 0.020512372723621893, "source": "statewide fallback" } ], "candidate_benchmarks": { "Abdul El-Sayed": { "opponent": "Haley Stevens", "expected_remaining_share_points": 44.77543062705778, "expected_final_county_share_points": 44.77543062705779, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 43.54792094614167, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 43.54792094614167, "required_final_county_share_points": 43.54792094614167, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 43.54792094614167, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": -1411.6548550058005, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": false }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 43.54792094614167, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 43.54792094614167, "required_final_county_share_points": 43.54792094614167, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 43.54792094614167, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 44.19995967493985, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 44.19995967493985, "required_final_county_share_points": 44.19995967493985, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.024044322225107804, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999973, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 44.853525653420476, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 44.853525653420476, "required_final_county_share_points": 44.853525653420476, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.003259695682198218, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.9999999999999996, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": 1.227509680916107, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "ABOVE", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.0012912613319935493, "criticality_score": 0.0010519357623557507, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -1670.0092038025844, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -185.53638528904273, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 590.4238611975715, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Haley Stevens": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 51.51673444802286, "expected_final_county_share_points": 51.51673444802286, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 52.74424412893895, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 52.74424412893895, "required_final_county_share_points": 52.74424412893895, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 52.74424412893895, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1507.9470200808814, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 52.74424412893895, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 52.74424412893895, "required_final_county_share_points": 52.74424412893895, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 52.74424412893895, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 53.39475451115378, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 53.39475451115378, "required_final_county_share_points": 53.39475451115378, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.07865391656842785, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.999999999999999, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 54.04373547383289, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 54.04373547383289, "required_final_county_share_points": 54.04373547383289, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.10597932088248406, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -1.2275096809160928, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.0012912613319935493, "criticality_score": 0.0010519357623557629, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1766.301368877665, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 3250.7741873912064, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 4026.734433877821, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Mallory McMorrow": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 3.707834924919356, "expected_final_county_share_points": 3.7078349249193563, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 31.45902167325829, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 31.45902167325829, "required_final_county_share_points": 31.45902167325829, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 31.45902167325829, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 35070.273897555955, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 31.45902167325829, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 31.45902167325829, "required_final_county_share_points": 31.45902167325829, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 31.45902167325829, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 32.04801582799303, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 32.04801582799303, "required_final_county_share_points": 32.04801582799303, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.159018308558073, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999906, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 32.635819333711815, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 32.635819333711815, "required_final_county_share_points": 32.635819333711815, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.213613509684069, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.999999999999993, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -27.751186748338935, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "WELL BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.0012912613319935493, "criticality_score": 4.652995000550161e-05, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1718.4924693545615, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 3202.965287868103, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 3978.925534354718, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } } } }, { "cid": "fips:26151", "county": "Sanilac", "fips": "26151", "reporting": 47.64, "current_votes": 1531, "current_candidate_votes": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 561, "Haley Stevens": 911, "Mallory McMorrow": 59 }, "current_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 36.642717178314825, "Haley Stevens": 59.50359242325277, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.8536903984323976 }, "estimated_remaining_votes": 1585.2325585258732, "estimated_final_votes": 3116.232558525873, "turnout_disagreement_votes": 0.0, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 41.270741922655226, "Haley Stevens": 54.89360470263943, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.835653374705344 }, "remaining_sources": [ { "model": "v3", "remaining_votes": 1585.2325585258732, "weight": 0.1342208488636769 }, { "model": "histgeo", "remaining_votes": 1585.2325585258732, "weight": 0.05994207394479305 }, { "model": "latent", "remaining_votes": 1585.2325585258732, "weight": 0.07672787409296966 }, { "model": "batchbias", "remaining_votes": 1585.2325585258732, "weight": 0.045123489075924846 } ], "share_sources": [ { "model": "v0", "weight": 0.03630604611298715, "source": "statewide raw" }, { "model": "v1", "weight": 0.14599140026529184, "source": "county live" }, { "model": "v3", "weight": 0.15004242351696637, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "market", "weight": 0.0786646379365536, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "histgeo", "weight": 0.06573339512824654, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "latent", "weight": 0.08483492578364633, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "batchbias", "weight": 0.04883898267529022, "source": "county remaining" } ], "candidate_benchmarks": { "Abdul El-Sayed": { "opponent": "Haley Stevens", "expected_remaining_share_points": 41.270741922655226, "expected_final_county_share_points": 38.99700087460683, "current_county_share_points": 36.642717178314825, "recent_batch_votes": 129, "recent_batch_share_points": 36.434108527131784, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 40.0657582636228, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 40.0657582636228, "required_final_county_share_points": 38.38402373220337, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 40.0657582636228, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": -1415.1595437102008, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": false }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 40.0657582636228, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 40.0657582636228, "required_final_county_share_points": 38.38402373220337, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 40.0657582636228, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 40.70528102021175, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 40.70528102021175, "required_final_county_share_points": 38.70934999608868, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.024044322225107804, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999973, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 41.347553538131535, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 41.347553538131535, "required_final_county_share_points": 39.03607506802441, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.003259695682198218, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.9999999999999996, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": 1.204983659032429, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -3.6316497364910134, "status": "ABOVE", "recent_status": "WELL BELOW", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.0012912613319935493, "criticality_score": 0.001071600699573303, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -1673.513892506987, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -189.04107399344528, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 586.919172493169, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Haley Stevens": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 54.89360470263943, "expected_final_county_share_points": 57.15848419019532, "current_county_share_points": 59.50359242325277, "recent_batch_votes": 129, "recent_batch_share_points": 61.240310077519375, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 56.09858836167185, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 56.09858836167185, "required_final_county_share_points": 57.77146133259878, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 56.09858836167185, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1511.3238903354957, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 56.09858836167185, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 56.09858836167185, "required_final_county_share_points": 57.77146133259878, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 56.09858836167185, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 56.73537267617203, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 56.73537267617203, "required_final_county_share_points": 58.09539454655048, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.07865391656842785, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.999999999999999, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 57.36942981402198, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 57.36942981402198, "required_final_county_share_points": 58.417940441315466, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.10597932088248406, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -1.2049836590324219, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": 5.141721715847524, "status": "BELOW", "recent_status": "WELL ABOVE", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.0012912613319935493, "criticality_score": 0.0010716006995733092, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1769.6782391322815, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 3254.151057645823, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 4030.111304132438, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Mallory McMorrow": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 3.835653374705344, "expected_final_county_share_points": 3.844514935197858, "current_county_share_points": 3.8536903984323976, "recent_batch_votes": 129, "recent_batch_share_points": 2.3255813953488373, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 30.432537007567394, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 30.432537007567394, "required_final_county_share_points": 17.374392791965256, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 30.432537007567394, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 35070.40171600574, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 30.432537007567394, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 30.432537007567394, "required_final_county_share_points": 17.374392791965256, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 30.432537007567394, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 30.959689995399014, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 30.959689995399014, "required_final_county_share_points": 17.642556372166787, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.159018308558073, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999906, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 31.484334232986456, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 31.484334232986456, "required_final_county_share_points": 17.909443747048726, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.213613509684069, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.999999999999993, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -26.59688363286205, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -28.106955612218556, "status": "WELL BELOW", "recent_status": "WELL BELOW", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.0012912613319935493, "criticality_score": 4.8549346976805895e-05, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1718.6202878043475, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 3203.093106317889, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 3979.053352804504, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } } } }, { "cid": "fips:26165", "county": "Wexford", "fips": "26165", "reporting": 44.65, "current_votes": 1194, "current_candidate_votes": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 525, "Haley Stevens": 618, "Mallory McMorrow": 51 }, "current_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 43.969849246231156, "Haley Stevens": 51.75879396984925, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.271356783919598 }, "estimated_remaining_votes": 1555.6611022108018, "estimated_final_votes": 2749.661102210802, "turnout_disagreement_votes": 0.0, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 46.01856870228579, "Haley Stevens": 49.883040283064226, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.09839101464997 }, "remaining_sources": [ { "model": "v3", "remaining_votes": 1555.6611022108018, "weight": 0.1342208488636769 }, { "model": "histgeo", "remaining_votes": 1555.6611022108018, "weight": 0.05994207394479305 }, { "model": "latent", "remaining_votes": 1555.6611022108018, "weight": 0.07672787409296966 }, { "model": "batchbias", "remaining_votes": 1555.6611022108018, "weight": 0.045123489075924846 } ], "share_sources": [ { "model": "v0", "weight": 0.03630604611298715, "source": "statewide raw" }, { "model": "v1", "weight": 0.14599140026529184, "source": "county live" }, { "model": "v3", "weight": 0.15004242351696637, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "market", "weight": 0.0786646379365536, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "histgeo", "weight": 0.06573339512824654, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "latent", "weight": 0.08483492578364633, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "batchbias", "weight": 0.04883898267529022, "source": "county remaining" } ], "candidate_benchmarks": { "Abdul El-Sayed": { "opponent": "Haley Stevens", "expected_remaining_share_points": 46.01856870228579, "expected_final_county_share_points": 45.128942330307645, "current_county_share_points": 43.969849246231156, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 44.79107675980081, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 44.79107675980081, "required_final_county_share_points": 44.434470758278, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 44.79107675980081, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": -1438.0969013877336, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": false }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 44.79107675980081, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 44.79107675980081, "required_final_county_share_points": 44.434470758278, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 44.79107675980081, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 45.44333885363721, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 45.44333885363721, "required_final_county_share_points": 44.8034976056273, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.024044322225107804, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999973, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 46.09659937031037, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 46.09659937031037, "required_final_county_share_points": 45.173089325341955, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.003259695682198218, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.9999999999999996, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": 1.2274919424849813, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "ABOVE", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.0012671737128836463, "criticality_score": 0.0010323275200636607, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -1701.3622904672616, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -188.67122889216927, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 602.0391932584128, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Haley Stevens": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 49.883040283064226, "expected_final_county_share_points": 50.69755880689997, "current_county_share_points": 51.75879396984925, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 51.1105322255492, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 51.1105322255492, "required_final_county_share_points": 51.3920303789296, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 51.1105322255492, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1533.9985103730835, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 51.1105322255492, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 51.1105322255492, "required_final_county_share_points": 51.3920303789296, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 51.1105322255492, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 51.761791729754094, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 51.761791729754094, "required_final_county_share_points": 51.76048999648831, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.07865391656842785, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.999999999999999, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 52.412044498729884, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 52.412044498729884, "required_final_county_share_points": 52.12838003882377, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.10597932088248406, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -1.2274919424849742, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.0012671737128836463, "criticality_score": 0.0010323275200636666, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1797.2638994526117, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 3309.9549610277036, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 4100.665383178286, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Mallory McMorrow": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 4.09839101464997, "expected_final_county_share_points": 4.1734988627923775, "current_county_share_points": 4.271356783919598, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 33.340635036845015, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 33.340635036845015, "required_final_county_share_points": 20.71772736066405, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 33.340635036845015, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 35737.242428094614, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 33.340635036845015, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 33.340635036845015, "required_final_county_share_points": 20.71772736066405, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 33.340635036845015, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 33.935195924503795, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 33.935195924503795, "required_final_county_share_points": 21.05410890422337, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.159018308558073, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999906, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 34.527520483618154, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 34.527520483618154, "required_final_county_share_points": 21.389225212104908, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.213613509684069, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.999999999999993, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -29.242244022195045, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "WELL BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.0012671737128836463, "criticality_score": 4.3333668644644833e-05, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1751.4792501841973, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 3264.1703117592897, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 4054.880733909872, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } } } }, { "cid": "26165", "county": "26165", "fips": null, "reporting": 0.0, "current_votes": 0, "current_candidate_votes": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 0, "Haley Stevens": 0, "Mallory McMorrow": 0 }, "current_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": null, "Haley Stevens": null, "Mallory McMorrow": null }, "estimated_remaining_votes": 1555.6611022108016, "estimated_final_votes": 1555.6611022108016, "turnout_disagreement_votes": 2.2737367544323206e-13, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 47.135154262806495, "Haley Stevens": 48.80574469593407, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.0591010412594315 }, "remaining_sources": [ { "model": "market", "remaining_votes": 1555.6611022108018, "weight": 0.1780093144963334 } ], "share_sources": [ { "model": "v0", "weight": 0.03630604611298715, "source": "statewide raw" }, { "model": "v3", "weight": 0.06301781787712588, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "market", "weight": 0.18729675699179427, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "histgeo", "weight": 0.02760802595386354, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "latent", "weight": 0.03563066882913146, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "batchbias", "weight": 0.020512372723621893, "source": "statewide fallback" } ], "candidate_benchmarks": { "Abdul El-Sayed": { "opponent": "Haley Stevens", "expected_remaining_share_points": 47.135154262806495, "expected_final_county_share_points": 47.135154262806495, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 45.90481322327478, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 45.90481322327478, "required_final_county_share_points": 45.90481322327478, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 45.90481322327478, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": -1436.9803158272105, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": false }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 45.90481322327478, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 45.90481322327478, "required_final_county_share_points": 45.90481322327478, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 45.90481322327478, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 46.55876907784067, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 46.55876907784067, "required_final_county_share_points": 46.558769077840665, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.024044322225107804, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999973, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 47.21331723965985, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 47.21331723965985, "required_final_county_share_points": 47.213317239659844, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.003259695682198218, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.9999999999999996, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": 1.2303410395317158, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "ABOVE", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.0012671737128836463, "criticality_score": 0.001029936962328713, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -1700.245704906741, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -187.55464333164855, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 603.1557788189334, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Haley Stevens": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 48.80574469593407, "expected_final_county_share_points": 48.805744695934074, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 50.0360857354658, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 50.0360857354658, "required_final_county_share_points": 50.0360857354658, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 50.0360857354658, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1532.921214785951, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 50.0360857354658, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 50.0360857354658, "required_final_county_share_points": 50.0360857354658, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 50.0360857354658, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 50.68944360959574, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 50.68944360959574, "required_final_county_share_points": 50.68944360959574, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.07865391656842785, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.999999999999999, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 51.34219784082158, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 51.34219784082158, "required_final_county_share_points": 51.34219784082158, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.10597932088248406, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -1.23034103953173, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.0012671737128836463, "criticality_score": 0.001029936962328701, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1796.1866038654814, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 3308.8776654405738, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 4099.588087591156, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Mallory McMorrow": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 4.0591010412594315, "expected_final_county_share_points": 4.0591010412594315, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 33.672073812820926, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 33.672073812820926, "required_final_county_share_points": 33.672073812820926, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 33.672073812820926, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 35737.20313812122, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 33.672073812820926, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 33.672073812820926, "required_final_county_share_points": 33.672073812820926, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 33.672073812820926, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 34.286290073197485, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 34.286290073197485, "required_final_county_share_points": 34.28629007319749, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.159018308558073, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999906, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 34.89868615217256, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 34.89868615217256, "required_final_county_share_points": 34.89868615217256, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.213613509684069, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.999999999999993, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -29.612972771561495, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "WELL BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.0012671737128836463, "criticality_score": 4.27911686766066e-05, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1751.439960210807, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 3264.131021785899, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 4054.8414439364815, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } } } }, { "cid": "fips:26011", "county": "Arenac", "fips": "26011", "reporting": 0.0, "current_votes": 0, "current_candidate_votes": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 0, "Haley Stevens": 0, "Mallory McMorrow": 0 }, "current_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": null, "Haley Stevens": null, "Mallory McMorrow": null }, "estimated_remaining_votes": 1502.2465186291217, "estimated_final_votes": 1502.2465186291217, "turnout_disagreement_votes": 0.0, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 49.07978973079111, "Haley Stevens": 47.04349713378837, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.8767131354205167 }, "remaining_sources": [ { "model": "v3", "remaining_votes": 1502.2465186291217, "weight": 0.1342208488636769 }, { "model": "histgeo", "remaining_votes": 1502.2465186291217, "weight": 0.05994207394479305 }, { "model": "latent", "remaining_votes": 1502.2465186291217, "weight": 0.07672787409296966 }, { "model": "batchbias", "remaining_votes": 1502.2465186291217, "weight": 0.045123489075924846 } ], "share_sources": [ { "model": "v0", "weight": 0.03630604611298715, "source": "statewide raw" }, { "model": "v3", "weight": 0.15004242351696637, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "market", "weight": 0.0786646379365536, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "histgeo", "weight": 0.06573339512824654, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "latent", "weight": 0.08483492578364633, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "batchbias", "weight": 0.04883898267529022, "source": "county remaining" } ], "candidate_benchmarks": { "Abdul El-Sayed": { "opponent": "Haley Stevens", "expected_remaining_share_points": 49.07978973079111, "expected_final_county_share_points": 49.07978973079111, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 47.84606758299723, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 47.84606758299723, "required_final_county_share_points": 47.84606758299723, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 47.84606758299723, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": -1487.8055878537245, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": false }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 47.84606758299723, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 47.84606758299723, "required_final_county_share_points": 47.84606758299723, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 47.84606758299723, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.50212492190258, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.50212492190258, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.50212492190258, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.024044322225107804, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999973, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 49.15808497043262, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 49.15808497043262, "required_final_county_share_points": 49.15808497043262, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.003259695682198218, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.9999999999999996, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": 1.233722147793884, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "ABOVE", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.001223664521773101, "criticality_score": 0.0009918477381323115, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -1760.4317648963256, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -193.9547486594797, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 624.8705450578608, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Haley Stevens": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 47.04349713378837, "expected_final_county_share_points": 47.04349713378837, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.27721928158224, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.27721928158224, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.27721928158224, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 48.27721928158224, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1583.928874718304, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.27721928158224, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.27721928158224, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.27721928158224, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 48.27721928158224, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.933367424627214, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.933367424627214, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.933367424627214, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.07865391656842785, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.999999999999999, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 49.589599870405785, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 49.589599870405785, "required_final_county_share_points": 49.589599870405785, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.10597932088248406, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -1.2337221477938698, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.001223664521773101, "criticality_score": 0.0009918477381323228, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1856.5550517609051, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 3423.0320679977503, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 4241.857361715091, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Mallory McMorrow": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 3.8767131354205167, "expected_final_county_share_points": 3.8767131354205167, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 33.78753370847888, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 33.78753370847888, "required_final_county_share_points": 33.78753370847888, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 33.78753370847888, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 37007.565221535966, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 33.78753370847888, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 33.78753370847888, "required_final_county_share_points": 33.78753370847888, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 33.78753370847888, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 34.44002816914223, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 34.44002816914223, "required_final_county_share_points": 34.44002816914223, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.159018308558073, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999906, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 35.09195641479674, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 35.09195641479674, "required_final_county_share_points": 35.09195641479674, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.213613509684069, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.999999999999993, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -29.910820573058366, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "WELL BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.001223664521773101, "criticality_score": 4.091042968160141e-05, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1813.3882677625372, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 3379.865283999383, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 4198.690577716724, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } } } }, { "cid": "26011", "county": "26011", "fips": null, "reporting": 0.0, "current_votes": 0, "current_candidate_votes": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 0, "Haley Stevens": 0, "Mallory McMorrow": 0 }, "current_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": null, "Haley Stevens": null, "Mallory McMorrow": null }, "estimated_remaining_votes": 1502.2465186291215, "estimated_final_votes": 1502.2465186291215, "turnout_disagreement_votes": 2.2737367544323206e-13, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 47.866155366725685, "Haley Stevens": 48.07259662711275, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.061248006161554 }, "remaining_sources": [ { "model": "market", "remaining_votes": 1502.2465186291217, "weight": 0.1780093144963334 } ], "share_sources": [ { "model": "v0", "weight": 0.03630604611298715, "source": "statewide raw" }, { "model": "v3", "weight": 0.06301781787712588, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "market", "weight": 0.18729675699179427, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "histgeo", "weight": 0.02760802595386354, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "latent", "weight": 0.03563066882913146, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "batchbias", "weight": 0.020512372723621893, "source": "statewide fallback" } ], "candidate_benchmarks": { "Abdul El-Sayed": { "opponent": "Haley Stevens", "expected_remaining_share_points": 47.866155366725685, "expected_final_county_share_points": 47.866155366725685, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 46.63499237555791, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 46.63499237555791, "required_final_county_share_points": 46.6349923755579, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 46.63499237555791, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": -1489.0192222177886, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": false }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 46.63499237555791, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 46.63499237555791, "required_final_county_share_points": 46.6349923755579, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 46.63499237555791, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 47.28950516908663, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 47.28950516908663, "required_final_county_share_points": 47.28950516908663, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.024044322225107804, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999973, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 47.94433799359388, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 47.94433799359388, "required_final_county_share_points": 47.94433799359388, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.003259695682198218, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.9999999999999996, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": 1.2311629911677784, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "ABOVE", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.0012236645217731008, "criticality_score": 0.0009939094421709629, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -1761.6453992603913, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -195.16838302354515, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 623.6569106937955, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Haley Stevens": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 48.07259662711275, "expected_final_county_share_points": 48.07259662711275, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 49.30375961828052, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 49.30375961828052, "required_final_county_share_points": 49.30375961828052, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 49.30375961828052, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1584.957974211627, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 49.30375961828052, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 49.30375961828052, "required_final_county_share_points": 49.30375961828052, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 49.30375961828052, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 49.95794612902271, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 49.95794612902271, "required_final_county_share_points": 49.95794612902271, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.07865391656842785, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.999999999999999, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 50.61180010634276, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 50.61180010634276, "required_final_county_share_points": 50.61180010634276, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.10597932088248406, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -1.2311629911677713, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.0012236645217731008, "criticality_score": 0.0009939094421709687, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1857.5841512542297, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 3424.061167491076, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 4242.886461208417, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Mallory McMorrow": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 4.061248006161554, "expected_final_county_share_points": 4.061248006161554, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 33.98016158619869, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 33.98016158619869, "required_final_county_share_points": 33.98016158619869, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 33.98016158619869, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 37007.749756406716, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 33.98016158619869, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 33.98016158619869, "required_final_county_share_points": 33.98016158619869, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 33.98016158619869, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 34.60618224899911, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 34.60618224899911, "required_final_county_share_points": 34.60618224899911, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.159018308558073, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999906, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 35.23057058958013, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 35.23057058958013, "required_final_county_share_points": 35.23057058958013, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.213613509684069, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.999999999999993, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -29.918913580037135, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "WELL BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.0012236645217731008, "criticality_score": 4.089936349124553e-05, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1813.5728026332786, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 3380.0498188701245, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 4198.875112587466, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } } } }, { "cid": "26045", "county": "26045", "fips": null, "reporting": 0.0, "current_votes": 0, "current_candidate_votes": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 0, "Haley Stevens": 0, "Mallory McMorrow": 0 }, "current_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": null, "Haley Stevens": null, "Mallory McMorrow": null }, "estimated_remaining_votes": 1488.4619678716554, "estimated_final_votes": 1488.4619678716554, "turnout_disagreement_votes": 0.0, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 48.76556279685301, "Haley Stevens": 46.474200664652585, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.760236538494406 }, "remaining_sources": [ { "model": "market", "remaining_votes": 1488.4619678716554, "weight": 0.1780093144963334 } ], "share_sources": [ { "model": "v0", "weight": 0.03630604611298715, "source": "statewide raw" }, { "model": "v3", "weight": 0.06301781787712588, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "market", "weight": 0.18729675699179427, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "histgeo", "weight": 0.02760802595386354, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "latent", "weight": 0.03563066882913146, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "batchbias", "weight": 0.020512372723621893, "source": "statewide fallback" } ], "candidate_benchmarks": { "Abdul El-Sayed": { "opponent": "Haley Stevens", "expected_remaining_share_points": 48.76556279685301, "expected_final_county_share_points": 48.76556279685301, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 47.543249302852686, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 47.543249302852686, "required_final_county_share_points": 47.54324930285268, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 47.543249302852686, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": -1502.3528116347456, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": false }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 47.543249302852686, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 47.543249302852686, "required_final_county_share_points": 47.54324930285268, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 47.543249302852686, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.19326232269358, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.19326232269358, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.19326232269358, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.024044322225107804, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999973, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.843127923288584, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.843127923288584, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.843127923288584, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.003259695682198218, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.9999999999999996, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": 1.2223134940003249, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "ABOVE", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.0012124362276806743, "criticality_score": 0.0009919192037328127, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -1777.5037622062482, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -196.51970285590093, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 629.8886793557215, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Haley Stevens": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 46.474200664652585, "expected_final_county_share_points": 46.47420066465259, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 47.69651415865292, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 47.69651415865292, "required_final_county_share_points": 47.69651415865291, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 47.69651415865292, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1597.5925750962513, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 47.69651415865292, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 47.69651415865292, "required_final_county_share_points": 47.69651415865291, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 47.69651415865292, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.34666819922362, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.34666819922362, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.34666819922362, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.07865391656842785, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.999999999999999, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.996956844964686, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.996956844964686, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.996956844964686, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.10597932088248406, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -1.222313494000332, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.0012124362276806743, "criticality_score": 0.0009919192037328068, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1872.7435256677536, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 3453.7275850181004, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 4280.135967229724, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Mallory McMorrow": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 4.760236538494406, "expected_final_county_share_points": 4.760236538494406, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 36.68463407623901, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 36.68463407623901, "required_final_county_share_points": 36.68463407623901, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 36.68463407623901, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 37351.13752938067, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 36.68463407623901, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 36.68463407623901, "required_final_county_share_points": 36.68463407623901, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 36.68463407623901, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 37.29887475682021, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 37.29887475682021, "required_final_county_share_points": 37.29887475682021, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.159018308558073, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999906, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 37.909499380383444, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 37.909499380383444, "required_final_county_share_points": 37.90949938038344, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.213613509684069, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.999999999999993, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -31.9243975377446, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "WELL BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.0012124362276806743, "criticality_score": 3.7978358910209544e-05, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1831.0295615415955, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 3412.0136208919425, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 4238.422003103566, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } } } }, { "cid": "fips:26045", "county": "Eaton", "fips": "26045", "reporting": 92.34, "current_votes": 15102, "current_candidate_votes": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 7203, "Haley Stevens": 7006, "Mallory McMorrow": 893 }, "current_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 47.695669447755265, "Haley Stevens": 46.39120646272017, "Mallory McMorrow": 5.913124089524566 }, "estimated_remaining_votes": 1484.270588417996, "estimated_final_votes": 16586.270588417996, "turnout_disagreement_votes": 0.0, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 48.06409868224863, "Haley Stevens": 46.58482593648643, "Mallory McMorrow": 5.351075381264948 }, "remaining_sources": [ { "model": "v3", "remaining_votes": 1484.270588417996, "weight": 0.1342208488636769 }, { "model": "histgeo", "remaining_votes": 1484.270588417996, "weight": 0.05994207394479305 }, { "model": "latent", "remaining_votes": 1484.270588417996, "weight": 0.07672787409296966 }, { "model": "batchbias", "remaining_votes": 1484.270588417996, "weight": 0.045123489075924846 } ], "share_sources": [ { "model": "v0", "weight": 0.03630604611298715, "source": "statewide raw" }, { "model": "v1", "weight": 0.14599140026529184, "source": "county live" }, { "model": "v3", "weight": 0.15004242351696637, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "market", "weight": 0.0786646379365536, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "histgeo", "weight": 0.06573339512824654, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "latent", "weight": 0.08483492578364633, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "batchbias", "weight": 0.04883898267529022, "source": "county remaining" } ], "candidate_benchmarks": { "Abdul El-Sayed": { "opponent": "Haley Stevens", "expected_remaining_share_points": 48.06409868224863, "expected_final_county_share_points": 47.72863940768427, "current_county_share_points": 47.695669447755265, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 46.84922443905993, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 46.84922443905993, "required_final_county_share_points": 47.61992285816345, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 46.84922443905993, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": -1507.4344243122302, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": false }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 46.84922443905993, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 46.84922443905993, "required_final_county_share_points": 47.61992285816345, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 46.84922443905993, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 47.495215862592346, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 47.495215862592346, "required_final_county_share_points": 47.67773127659049, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.024044322225107804, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999973, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.141209481717006, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.141209481717006, "required_final_county_share_points": 47.73553989149648, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.003259695682198218, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.9999999999999996, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": 1.2148742431886959, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "ABOVE", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.0012090221127061145, "criticality_score": 0.000995182933118064, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -1783.3623639650239, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -197.91381939571988, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 630.8282283486985, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Haley Stevens": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 46.58482593648643, "expected_final_county_share_points": 46.40853306358106, "current_county_share_points": 46.39120646272017, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 47.79970017967511, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 47.79970017967511, "required_final_county_share_points": 46.51724961310188, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 47.79970017967511, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1602.0833489309653, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 47.79970017967511, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 47.79970017967511, "required_final_county_share_points": 46.51724961310188, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 47.79970017967511, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.445683001053254, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.445683001053254, "required_final_county_share_points": 46.57505726174017, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.07865391656842785, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.999999999999999, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 49.091650802664844, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 49.091650802664844, "required_final_county_share_points": 46.632863566291036, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.10597932088248406, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -1.2148742431886816, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.0012090221127061145, "criticality_score": 0.0009951829331180757, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1878.0112885837589, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 3463.459833153063, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 4292.201880897482, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Mallory McMorrow": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 5.351075381264948, "expected_final_county_share_points": 5.862827528734668, "current_county_share_points": 5.913124089524566, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 38.0852555421124, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 38.0852555421124, "required_final_county_share_points": 8.792140697099898, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 38.0852555421124, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 37457.189488099604, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 38.0852555421124, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 38.0852555421124, "required_final_county_share_points": 8.792140697099898, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 38.0852555421124, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 38.66607228508408, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 38.66607228508408, "required_final_county_share_points": 8.844116769976436, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.159018308558073, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999906, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 39.24178105195122, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 39.24178105195122, "required_final_county_share_points": 8.895635740778225, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.213613509684069, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.999999999999993, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -32.73418016084745, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "WELL BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.0012090221127061145, "criticality_score": 3.693454690984429e-05, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1836.7775380285375, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 3422.226082597841, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 4250.96813034226, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } } } }, { "cid": "26141", "county": "26141", "fips": null, "reporting": 0.0, "current_votes": 0, "current_candidate_votes": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 0, "Haley Stevens": 0, "Mallory McMorrow": 0 }, "current_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": null, "Haley Stevens": null, "Mallory McMorrow": null }, "estimated_remaining_votes": 1451.5801453614304, "estimated_final_votes": 1451.5801453614304, "turnout_disagreement_votes": 0.0, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 44.49545659611195, "Haley Stevens": 51.19162968761485, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.312913716273204 }, "remaining_sources": [ { "model": "market", "remaining_votes": 1451.5801453614304, "weight": 0.1780093144963334 } ], "share_sources": [ { "model": "v0", "weight": 0.03630604611298715, "source": "statewide raw" }, { "model": "v3", "weight": 0.06301781787712588, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "market", "weight": 0.18729675699179427, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "histgeo", "weight": 0.02760802595386354, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "latent", "weight": 0.03563066882913146, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "batchbias", "weight": 0.020512372723621893, "source": "statewide fallback" } ], "candidate_benchmarks": { "Abdul El-Sayed": { "opponent": "Haley Stevens", "expected_remaining_share_points": 44.49545659611195, "expected_final_county_share_points": 44.49545659611195, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 43.27565444415839, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 43.27565444415839, "required_final_county_share_points": 43.27565444415839, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 43.27565444415839, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": -1546.033812756408, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": false }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 43.27565444415839, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 43.27565444415839, "required_final_county_share_points": 43.27565444415839, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 43.27565444415839, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 43.92359924936351, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 43.92359924936351, "required_final_county_share_points": 43.92359924936351, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.024044322225107804, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999973, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 44.57306120286155, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 44.57306120286155, "required_final_county_share_points": 44.57306120286155, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.003259695682198218, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.9999999999999996, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": 1.2198021519535587, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "ABOVE", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.00118239390297269, "criticality_score": 0.0009693325274750844, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -1828.1758127404603, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -207.02202962061628, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 640.3837789963544, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Haley Stevens": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 51.19162968761485, "expected_final_county_share_points": 51.19162968761485, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 52.4114318395684, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 52.4114318395684, "required_final_county_share_points": 52.4114318395684, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 52.4114318395684, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1641.720899040135, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 52.4114318395684, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 52.4114318395684, "required_final_county_share_points": 52.4114318395684, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 52.4114318395684, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 53.057858402878686, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 53.057858402878686, "required_final_county_share_points": 53.057858402878686, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.07865391656842785, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.999999999999999, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 53.70276565449549, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 53.70276565449549, "required_final_county_share_points": 53.70276565449549, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.10597932088248406, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -1.2198021519535516, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.00118239390297269, "criticality_score": 0.00096933252747509, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1923.862899024187, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 3545.0166821440307, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 4392.422490761002, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Mallory McMorrow": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 4.312913716273204, "expected_final_county_share_points": 4.312913716273204, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 33.377220084490844, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 33.377220084490844, "required_final_county_share_points": 33.377220084490844, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 33.377220084490844, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 38299.58886924408, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 33.377220084490844, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 33.377220084490844, "required_final_county_share_points": 33.377220084490844, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 33.377220084490844, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 33.93882994982512, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 33.93882994982512, "required_final_county_share_points": 33.93882994982512, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.159018308558073, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999906, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 34.49722375388291, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 34.49722375388291, "required_final_county_share_points": 34.49722375388291, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.213613509684069, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.999999999999993, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -29.06430636821764, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "WELL BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.00118239390297269, "criticality_score": 4.068199281940063e-05, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1876.9841830528455, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 3498.137966172689, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 4345.54377478966, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } } } }, { "cid": "fips:26141", "county": "Presque Isle", "fips": "26141", "reporting": 21.17, "current_votes": 344, "current_candidate_votes": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 107, "Haley Stevens": 219, "Mallory McMorrow": 18 }, "current_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 31.1046511627907, "Haley Stevens": 63.662790697674424, "Mallory McMorrow": 5.232558139534884 }, "estimated_remaining_votes": 1451.5801453614304, "estimated_final_votes": 1795.5801453614304, "turnout_disagreement_votes": 0.0, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 40.046781280512405, "Haley Stevens": 55.40365979279625, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.549558926691354 }, "remaining_sources": [ { "model": "v3", "remaining_votes": 1451.5801453614304, "weight": 0.1342208488636769 }, { "model": "histgeo", "remaining_votes": 1451.5801453614304, "weight": 0.05994207394479305 }, { "model": "latent", "remaining_votes": 1451.5801453614304, "weight": 0.07672787409296966 }, { "model": "batchbias", "remaining_votes": 1451.5801453614304, "weight": 0.045123489075924846 } ], "share_sources": [ { "model": "v0", "weight": 0.03630604611298715, "source": "statewide raw" }, { "model": "v1", "weight": 0.14599140026529184, "source": "county live" }, { "model": "v3", "weight": 0.15004242351696637, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "market", "weight": 0.0786646379365536, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "histgeo", "weight": 0.06573339512824654, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "latent", "weight": 0.08483492578364633, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "batchbias", "weight": 0.04883898267529022, "source": "county remaining" } ], "candidate_benchmarks": { "Abdul El-Sayed": { "opponent": "Haley Stevens", "expected_remaining_share_points": 40.046781280512405, "expected_final_county_share_points": 38.33363426869964, "current_county_share_points": 31.1046511627907, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 38.85842720902756, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 38.85842720902756, "required_final_county_share_points": 37.37294689404636, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 38.85842720902756, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": -1550.4824880720075, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": false }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 38.85842720902756, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 38.85842720902756, "required_final_county_share_points": 37.37294689404636, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 38.85842720902756, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 39.48897862890483, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 39.48897862890483, "required_final_county_share_points": 37.88269630517001, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.024044322225107804, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999973, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 40.12257246595796, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 40.12257246595796, "required_final_county_share_points": 38.39490526251764, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.003259695682198218, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.9999999999999996, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": 1.188354071484845, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "ABOVE", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.00118239390297269, "criticality_score": 0.0009949845179520378, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -1832.6244880560598, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -211.47070493621584, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 635.9351036807549, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Haley Stevens": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 55.40365979279625, "expected_final_county_share_points": 56.9859567671851, "current_county_share_points": 63.662790697674424, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 56.592013864281085, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 56.592013864281085, "required_final_county_share_points": 57.94664414183838, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 56.592013864281085, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1645.9329291453162, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 56.592013864281085, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 56.592013864281085, "required_final_county_share_points": 57.94664414183838, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 56.592013864281085, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 57.21953851968533, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 57.21953851968533, "required_final_county_share_points": 58.45394666067205, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.07865391656842785, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.999999999999999, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 57.84405196216951, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 57.84405196216951, "required_final_county_share_points": 58.95881485937829, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.10597932088248406, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -1.188354071484838, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.00118239390297269, "criticality_score": 0.0009949845179520436, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1928.0749291293687, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 3549.228712249212, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 4396.634520866183, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Mallory McMorrow": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 4.549558926691354, "expected_final_county_share_points": 4.680408964115266, "current_county_share_points": 5.232558139534884, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 31.98111180354053, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 31.98111180354053, "required_final_county_share_points": 26.85658284047061, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 31.98111180354053, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 38299.825514454504, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 31.98111180354053, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 31.98111180354053, "required_final_county_share_points": 26.85658284047061, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 31.98111180354053, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 32.461731370323626, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 32.461731370323626, "required_final_county_share_points": 27.245124573022533, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.159018308558073, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999906, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 32.93791657182699, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 32.93791657182699, "required_final_county_share_points": 27.630081482800605, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.213613509684069, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.999999999999993, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -27.431552876849175, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "WELL BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.00118239390297269, "criticality_score": 4.31034257623297e-05, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1877.2208282632637, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 3498.374611383107, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 4345.780420000078, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } } } }, { "cid": "26057", "county": "26057", "fips": null, "reporting": 0.0, "current_votes": 0, "current_candidate_votes": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 0, "Haley Stevens": 0, "Mallory McMorrow": 0 }, "current_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": null, "Haley Stevens": null, "Mallory McMorrow": null }, "estimated_remaining_votes": 1397.8102766628867, "estimated_final_votes": 1397.8102766628867, "turnout_disagreement_votes": 0.0, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 45.71366837579237, "Haley Stevens": 49.51054752463013, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.775784099577507 }, "remaining_sources": [ { "model": "market", "remaining_votes": 1397.8102766628867, "weight": 0.1780093144963334 } ], "share_sources": [ { "model": "v0", "weight": 0.03630604611298715, "source": "statewide raw" }, { "model": "v3", "weight": 0.06301781787712588, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "market", "weight": 0.18729675699179427, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "histgeo", "weight": 0.02760802595386354, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "latent", "weight": 0.03563066882913146, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "batchbias", "weight": 0.020512372723621893, "source": "statewide fallback" } ], "candidate_benchmarks": { "Abdul El-Sayed": { "opponent": "Haley Stevens", "expected_remaining_share_points": 45.71366837579237, "expected_final_county_share_points": 45.71366837579237, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 44.494792079836195, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 44.494792079836195, "required_final_county_share_points": 44.494792079836195, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 44.494792079836195, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": -1605.9988326370715, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": false }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 44.494792079836195, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 44.494792079836195, "required_final_county_share_points": 44.494792079836195, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 44.494792079836195, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 45.142479302794236, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 45.142479302794236, "required_final_county_share_points": 45.142479302794236, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.024044322225107804, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999973, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 45.79115045998886, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 45.79115045998886, "required_final_county_share_points": 45.79115045998886, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.003259695682198218, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.9999999999999996, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": 1.2188762959561785, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "ABOVE", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.0011385953120950434, "criticality_score": 0.0009341352488948383, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -1898.9940496469037, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -215.47899510572776, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 664.5241550993294, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Haley Stevens": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 49.51054752463013, "expected_final_county_share_points": 49.51054752463012, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 50.729423820586305, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 50.729423820586305, "required_final_county_share_points": 50.729423820586305, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 50.729423820586305, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1701.2230485374935, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 50.729423820586305, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 50.729423820586305, "required_final_county_share_points": 50.729423820586305, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 50.729423820586305, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 51.37612293749878, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 51.37612293749878, "required_final_county_share_points": 51.37612293749878, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.07865391656842785, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.999999999999999, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 52.02182979746676, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 52.02182979746676, "required_final_county_share_points": 52.02182979746676, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.10597932088248406, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -1.2188762959561785, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.0011385953120950434, "criticality_score": 0.0009341352488948383, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1994.2182655473262, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 3677.733320088502, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 4557.736470293559, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Mallory McMorrow": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 4.775784099577507, "expected_final_county_share_points": 4.775784099577507, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 35.33330336541867, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 35.33330336541867, "required_final_county_share_points": 35.33330336541867, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 35.33330336541867, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 39773.16436033238, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 35.33330336541867, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 35.33330336541867, "required_final_county_share_points": 35.33330336541867, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 35.33330336541867, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 35.897309697827865, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 35.897309697827865, "required_final_county_share_points": 35.897309697827865, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.159018308558073, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999906, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 36.45713713466048, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 36.45713713466048, "required_final_county_share_points": 36.45713713466048, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.213613509684069, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.999999999999993, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -30.557519265841165, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "WELL BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.0011385953120950434, "criticality_score": 3.726072467433004e-05, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1949.4835021222736, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 3632.998556663449, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 4513.0017068685065, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } } } }, { "cid": "fips:26057", "county": "Gratiot", "fips": "26057", "reporting": 52.459999999999994, "current_votes": 1835, "current_candidate_votes": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 746, "Haley Stevens": 973, "Mallory McMorrow": 116 }, "current_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 40.653950953678475, "Haley Stevens": 53.02452316076294, "Mallory McMorrow": 6.321525885558583 }, "estimated_remaining_votes": 1397.8102766628867, "estimated_final_votes": 3232.8102766628867, "turnout_disagreement_votes": 0.0, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 43.66830054096196, "Haley Stevens": 50.879047295444735, "Mallory McMorrow": 5.452652163593299 }, "remaining_sources": [ { "model": "v3", "remaining_votes": 1397.8102766628867, "weight": 0.1342208488636769 }, { "model": "histgeo", "remaining_votes": 1397.8102766628867, "weight": 0.05994207394479305 }, { "model": "latent", "remaining_votes": 1397.8102766628867, "weight": 0.07672787409296966 }, { "model": "batchbias", "remaining_votes": 1397.8102766628867, "weight": 0.045123489075924846 } ], "share_sources": [ { "model": "v0", "weight": 0.03630604611298715, "source": "statewide raw" }, { "model": "v1", "weight": 0.14599140026529184, "source": "county live" }, { "model": "v3", "weight": 0.15004242351696637, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "market", "weight": 0.0786646379365536, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "histgeo", "weight": 0.06573339512824654, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "latent", "weight": 0.08483492578364633, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "batchbias", "weight": 0.04883898267529022, "source": "county remaining" } ], "candidate_benchmarks": { "Abdul El-Sayed": { "opponent": "Haley Stevens", "expected_remaining_share_points": 43.66830054096196, "expected_final_county_share_points": 41.95730267245265, "current_county_share_points": 40.653950953678475, "recent_batch_votes": 78, "recent_batch_share_points": 28.205128205128204, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 42.46433495773232, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 42.46433495773232, "required_final_county_share_points": 41.43672914014997, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 42.46433495773232, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": -1608.0442004719027, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": false }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 42.46433495773232, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 42.46433495773232, "required_final_county_share_points": 41.43672914014997, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 42.46433495773232, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 43.10381927631105, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 43.10381927631105, "required_final_county_share_points": 41.71323090665537, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.024044322225107804, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999973, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 43.7449107363457, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 43.7449107363457, "required_final_county_share_points": 41.99042757284584, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.003259695682198218, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.9999999999999996, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": 1.203965583229639, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -14.259206752604115, "status": "ABOVE", "recent_status": "WELL BELOW", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.0011385953120950434, "criticality_score": 0.000945704202806828, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -1901.039417481734, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -217.52436294055818, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 662.4787872644989, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Haley Stevens": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 50.879047295444735, "expected_final_county_share_points": 52.09685715000969, "current_county_share_points": 53.02452316076294, "recent_batch_votes": 78, "recent_batch_share_points": 70.51282051282051, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 52.08301287867438, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 52.08301287867438, "required_final_county_share_points": 52.617430682312374, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 52.08301287867438, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1702.5915483083093, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 52.08301287867438, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 52.08301287867438, "required_final_county_share_points": 52.617430682312374, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 52.08301287867438, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 52.720889773332345, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 52.720889773332345, "required_final_county_share_points": 52.89323742699988, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.07865391656842785, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.999999999999999, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 53.3571589836196, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 53.3571589836196, "required_final_county_share_points": 53.168349037255524, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.10597932088248406, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -1.203965583229646, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": 18.42980763414613, "status": "BELOW", "recent_status": "WELL ABOVE", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.0011385953120950434, "criticality_score": 0.0009457042028068225, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1995.5867653181408, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 3679.1018198593165, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 4559.104970064374, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Mallory McMorrow": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 5.452652163593299, "expected_final_county_share_points": 5.945840177537663, "current_county_share_points": 6.321525885558583, "recent_batch_votes": 78, "recent_batch_share_points": 1.282051282051282, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 36.14784228974252, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 36.14784228974252, "required_final_county_share_points": 19.217900252384652, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 36.14784228974252, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 39773.84122839639, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 36.14784228974252, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 36.14784228974252, "required_final_county_share_points": 19.217900252384652, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 36.14784228974252, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 36.65452821074907, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 36.65452821074907, "required_final_county_share_points": 19.43698232860054, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.159018308558073, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999906, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 37.155544642236556, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 37.155544642236556, "required_final_county_share_points": 19.65361301731299, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.213613509684069, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.999999999999993, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -30.69519012614922, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -34.865791007691236, "status": "WELL BELOW", "recent_status": "WELL BELOW", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.0011385953120950434, "criticality_score": 3.709360676430782e-05, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1950.1603701862894, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 3633.6754247274653, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 4513.678574932523, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } } } }, { "cid": "fips:26023", "county": "Branch", "fips": "26023", "reporting": 45.38, "current_votes": 1514, "current_candidate_votes": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 567, "Haley Stevens": 868, "Mallory McMorrow": 79 }, "current_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 37.45046235138705, "Haley Stevens": 57.33157199471598, "Mallory McMorrow": 5.217965653896962 }, "estimated_remaining_votes": 1328.9638581037907, "estimated_final_votes": 2842.9638581037907, "turnout_disagreement_votes": 0.0, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 41.89518609345106, "Haley Stevens": 53.41155199201151, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.6932619145374295 }, "remaining_sources": [ { "model": "v3", "remaining_votes": 1328.9638581037907, "weight": 0.1342208488636769 }, { "model": "histgeo", "remaining_votes": 1328.9638581037907, "weight": 0.05994207394479305 }, { "model": "latent", "remaining_votes": 1328.9638581037907, "weight": 0.07672787409296966 }, { "model": "batchbias", "remaining_votes": 1328.9638581037907, "weight": 0.045123489075924846 } ], "share_sources": [ { "model": "v0", "weight": 0.03630604611298715, "source": "statewide raw" }, { "model": "v1", "weight": 0.14599140026529184, "source": "county live" }, { "model": "v3", "weight": 0.15004242351696637, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "market", "weight": 0.0786646379365536, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "histgeo", "weight": 0.06573339512824654, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "latent", "weight": 0.08483492578364633, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "batchbias", "weight": 0.04883898267529022, "source": "county remaining" } ], "candidate_benchmarks": { "Abdul El-Sayed": { "opponent": "Haley Stevens", "expected_remaining_share_points": 41.89518609345106, "expected_final_county_share_points": 39.52818036233591, "current_county_share_points": 37.45046235138705, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 40.69364585753238, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 40.69364585753238, "required_final_county_share_points": 38.966511756158674, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 40.69364585753238, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": -1695.3835923547356, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": false }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 40.69364585753238, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 40.69364585753238, "required_final_county_share_points": 38.966511756158674, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 40.69364585753238, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 41.331500515700704, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 41.331500515700704, "required_final_county_share_points": 39.264681493706526, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.024044322225107804, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999973, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 41.97173481245679, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 41.97173481245679, "required_final_county_share_points": 39.56396361038979, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.003259695682198218, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.9999999999999996, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": 1.201540235918678, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "ABOVE", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.0010825160209819013, "criticality_score": 0.0009009403003089841, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -2003.557304417737, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -232.8284544157449, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 692.7628920693714, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Haley Stevens": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 53.41155199201151, "expected_final_county_share_points": 55.499130512286136, "current_county_share_points": 57.33157199471598, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 54.61309222793018, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 54.61309222793018, "required_final_county_share_points": 56.06079911846338, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 54.61309222793018, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1790.6903304401983, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 54.61309222793018, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 54.61309222793018, "required_final_county_share_points": 56.06079911846338, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 54.61309222793018, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 55.248574199199396, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 55.248574199199396, "required_final_county_share_points": 56.35785972649258, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.07865391656842785, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.999999999999999, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 55.88169041937995, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 55.88169041937995, "required_final_county_share_points": 56.65381444719747, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.10597932088248406, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -1.2015402359186709, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.0010825160209819013, "criticality_score": 0.0009009403003089894, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 2098.8640425031995, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 3869.5928925051912, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 4795.184238990308, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Mallory McMorrow": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 4.6932619145374295, "expected_final_county_share_points": 4.972689125377945, "current_county_share_points": 5.217965653896962, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 33.27674958666581, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 33.27674958666581, "required_final_county_share_points": 18.33424556814967, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 33.27674958666581, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 41833.266626954646, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 33.27674958666581, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 33.27674958666581, "required_final_county_share_points": 18.33424556814967, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 33.27674958666581, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 33.78196194462779, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 33.78196194462779, "required_final_county_share_points": 18.570410710553798, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.159018308558073, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999906, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 34.28266415700371, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 34.28266415700371, "required_final_county_share_points": 18.804467553036496, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.213613509684069, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.999999999999993, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -28.583487672128378, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "WELL BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.0010825160209819013, "criticality_score": 3.7872076123077784e-05, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 2050.1457524257253, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 3820.874602427717, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 4746.4659489128335, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } } } }, { "cid": "26023", "county": "26023", "fips": null, "reporting": 0.0, "current_votes": 0, "current_candidate_votes": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 0, "Haley Stevens": 0, "Mallory McMorrow": 0 }, "current_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": null, "Haley Stevens": null, "Mallory McMorrow": null }, "estimated_remaining_votes": 1328.9638581037907, "estimated_final_votes": 1328.9638581037907, "turnout_disagreement_votes": 0.0, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 45.96531612487444, "Haley Stevens": 49.75912812341987, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.2755557517057 }, "remaining_sources": [ { "model": "market", "remaining_votes": 1328.9638581037907, "weight": 0.1780093144963334 } ], "share_sources": [ { "model": "v0", "weight": 0.03630604611298715, "source": "statewide raw" }, { "model": "v3", "weight": 0.06301781787712588, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "market", "weight": 0.18729675699179427, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "histgeo", "weight": 0.02760802595386354, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "latent", "weight": 0.03563066882913146, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "batchbias", "weight": 0.020512372723621893, "source": "statewide fallback" } ], "candidate_benchmarks": { "Abdul El-Sayed": { "opponent": "Haley Stevens", "expected_remaining_share_points": 45.96531612487444, "expected_final_county_share_points": 45.96531612487444, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 44.740005862807976, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 44.740005862807976, "required_final_county_share_points": 44.74000586280797, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 44.740005862807976, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": -1691.3134623233084, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": false }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 44.740005862807976, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 44.740005862807976, "required_final_county_share_points": 44.74000586280797, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 44.740005862807976, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 45.39111385141064, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 45.39111385141064, "required_final_county_share_points": 45.39111385141064, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.024044322225107804, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999973, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 46.04320669570189, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 46.04320669570189, "required_final_county_share_points": 46.04320669570189, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.003259695682198218, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.9999999999999996, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": 1.2253102620664649, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "ABOVE", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.0010825160209819013, "criticality_score": 0.0008834627885644706, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -1999.4871743863137, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -228.7583243843215, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 696.8330221007948, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Haley Stevens": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 49.75912812341987, "expected_final_county_share_points": 49.75912812341987, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 50.98443838548633, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 50.98443838548633, "required_final_county_share_points": 50.98443838548633, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 50.98443838548633, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1787.037906571603, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 50.98443838548633, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 50.98443838548633, "required_final_county_share_points": 50.98443838548633, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 50.98443838548633, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 51.6345573051189, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 51.6345573051189, "required_final_county_share_points": 51.6345573051189, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.07865391656842785, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.999999999999999, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 52.283682963440306, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 52.283682963440306, "required_final_county_share_points": 52.283682963440306, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.10597932088248406, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -1.2253102620664578, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.0010825160209819013, "criticality_score": 0.0008834627885644757, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 2095.211618634608, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 3865.9404686365997, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 4791.531815121716, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Mallory McMorrow": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 4.2755557517057, "expected_final_county_share_points": 4.2755557517057, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 33.905955789869566, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 33.905955789869566, "required_final_county_share_points": 33.905955789869566, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 33.905955789869566, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 41832.84892079181, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 33.905955789869566, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 33.905955789869566, "required_final_county_share_points": 33.905955789869566, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 33.905955789869566, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 34.49293643106823, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 34.49293643106823, "required_final_county_share_points": 34.49293643106823, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.159018308558073, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999906, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 35.07711214446507, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 35.07711214446507, "required_final_county_share_points": 35.07711214446507, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.213613509684069, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.999999999999993, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -29.630400038163867, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "WELL BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.0010825160209819013, "criticality_score": 3.653396577797208e-05, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 2049.7280462628937, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 3820.4568962648855, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 4746.048242750002, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } } } }, { "cid": "26031", "county": "26031", "fips": null, "reporting": 0.0, "current_votes": 0, "current_candidate_votes": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 0, "Haley Stevens": 0, "Mallory McMorrow": 0 }, "current_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": null, "Haley Stevens": null, "Mallory McMorrow": null }, "estimated_remaining_votes": 1277.7034008361702, "estimated_final_votes": 1277.7034008361702, "turnout_disagreement_votes": 0.0, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 46.25878790280384, "Haley Stevens": 49.62975324012126, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.1114588570749016 }, "remaining_sources": [ { "model": "market", "remaining_votes": 1277.7034008361702, "weight": 0.1780093144963334 } ], "share_sources": [ { "model": "v0", "weight": 0.03630604611298715, "source": "statewide raw" }, { "model": "v3", "weight": 0.06301781787712588, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "market", "weight": 0.18729675699179427, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "histgeo", "weight": 0.02760802595386354, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "latent", "weight": 0.03563066882913146, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "batchbias", "weight": 0.020512372723621893, "source": "statewide fallback" } ], "candidate_benchmarks": { "Abdul El-Sayed": { "opponent": "Haley Stevens", "expected_remaining_share_points": 46.25878790280384, "expected_final_county_share_points": 46.25878790280384, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 45.03082448501172, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 45.03082448501172, "required_final_county_share_points": 45.03082448501172, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 45.03082448501172, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": -1760.718251132546, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": false }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 45.03082448501172, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 45.03082448501172, "required_final_county_share_points": 45.03082448501172, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 45.03082448501172, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 45.68337742194211, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 45.68337742194211, "required_final_county_share_points": 45.68337742194211, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.024044322225107804, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999973, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 46.33683759790625, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 46.33683759790625, "required_final_county_share_points": 46.33683759790625, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.003259695682198218, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.9999999999999996, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": 1.2279634177921182, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "ABOVE", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.0010407614872549775, "criticality_score": 0.0008475508896887741, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -2081.255650564521, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -239.48654936755813, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 723.2387952212882, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Haley Stevens": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 49.62975324012126, "expected_final_county_share_points": 49.62975324012126, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 50.85771665791338, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 50.85771665791338, "required_final_county_share_points": 50.85771665791338, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 50.85771665791338, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1856.6067922754708, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 50.85771665791338, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 50.85771665791338, "required_final_county_share_points": 50.85771665791338, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 50.85771665791338, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 51.50935778564551, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 51.50935778564551, "required_final_county_share_points": 51.50935778564551, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.07865391656842785, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.999999999999999, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 52.16008255337068, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 52.16008255337068, "required_final_county_share_points": 52.16008255337068, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.10597932088248406, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -1.2279634177921182, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.0010407614872549775, "criticality_score": 0.0008475508896887741, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 2177.144191707446, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 4018.9132929044085, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 4981.638637493255, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Mallory McMorrow": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 4.1114588570749016, "expected_final_county_share_points": 4.1114588570749016, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 33.486436232129755, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 33.486436232129755, "required_final_county_share_points": 33.486436232129755, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 33.486436232129755, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 43510.81434608595, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 33.486436232129755, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 33.486436232129755, "required_final_county_share_points": 33.486436232129755, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 33.486436232129755, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 34.08441547908403, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 34.08441547908403, "required_final_county_share_points": 34.08441547908403, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.159018308558073, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999906, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 34.68017409211269, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 34.68017409211269, "required_final_county_share_points": 34.68017409211269, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.213613509684069, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.999999999999993, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -29.374977375054854, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "WELL BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.0010407614872549775, "criticality_score": 3.5430205578261626e-05, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 2131.6258973244, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 3973.394998521362, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 4936.1203431102085, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } } } }, { "cid": "fips:26031", "county": "Cheboygan", "fips": "26031", "reporting": 57.26, "current_votes": 1621, "current_candidate_votes": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 682, "Haley Stevens": 867, "Mallory McMorrow": 72 }, "current_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 42.07279457125232, "Haley Stevens": 53.48550277606415, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.441702652683529 }, "estimated_remaining_votes": 1277.7034008361702, "estimated_final_votes": 2898.70340083617, "turnout_disagreement_votes": 0.0, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 44.43260361080989, "Haley Stevens": 51.331470258170484, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.235926131019626 }, "remaining_sources": [ { "model": "v3", "remaining_votes": 1277.7034008361702, "weight": 0.1342208488636769 }, { "model": "histgeo", "remaining_votes": 1277.7034008361702, "weight": 0.05994207394479305 }, { "model": "latent", "remaining_votes": 1277.7034008361702, "weight": 0.07672787409296966 }, { "model": "batchbias", "remaining_votes": 1277.7034008361702, "weight": 0.045123489075924846 } ], "share_sources": [ { "model": "v0", "weight": 0.03630604611298715, "source": "statewide raw" }, { "model": "v1", "weight": 0.14599140026529184, "source": "county live" }, { "model": "v3", "weight": 0.15004242351696637, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "market", "weight": 0.0786646379365536, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "histgeo", "weight": 0.06573339512824654, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "latent", "weight": 0.08483492578364633, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "batchbias", "weight": 0.04883898267529022, "source": "county remaining" } ], "candidate_benchmarks": { "Abdul El-Sayed": { "opponent": "Haley Stevens", "expected_remaining_share_points": 44.43260361080989, "expected_final_county_share_points": 43.11296171436082, "current_county_share_points": 42.07279457125232, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 43.21224342521124, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 43.21224342521124, "required_final_county_share_points": 42.5750459141673, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 43.21224342521124, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": -1762.5444354245406, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": false }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 43.21224342521124, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 43.21224342521124, "required_final_county_share_points": 42.5750459141673, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 43.21224342521124, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 43.86046860938662, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 43.86046860938662, "required_final_county_share_points": 42.86077349915913, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.024044322225107804, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999973, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 44.51024807925615, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 44.51024807925615, "required_final_county_share_points": 43.147186189124696, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.003259695682198218, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.9999999999999996, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": 1.2203601855986506, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "ABOVE", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.0010407614872549775, "criticality_score": 0.0008528314013656793, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -2083.081834856515, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -241.31273365955207, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 721.4126109292943, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Haley Stevens": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 51.331470258170484, "expected_final_county_share_points": 52.53603872505759, "current_county_share_points": 53.48550277606415, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 52.551830443769134, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 52.551830443769134, "required_final_county_share_points": 53.0739545252511, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 52.551830443769134, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1858.308509293521, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 52.551830443769134, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 52.551830443769134, "required_final_county_share_points": 53.0739545252511, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 52.551830443769134, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 53.19850050667427, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 53.19850050667427, "required_final_county_share_points": 53.358996636960256, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.07865391656842785, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.999999999999999, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 53.843614636146434, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 53.843614636146434, "required_final_county_share_points": 53.643352917398005, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.10597932088248406, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -1.2203601855986506, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.0010407614872549775, "criticality_score": 0.0008528314013656793, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 2178.8459087254955, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 4020.615009922458, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 4983.340354511304, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Mallory McMorrow": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 4.235926131019626, "expected_final_county_share_points": 4.350999560581604, "current_county_share_points": 4.441702652683529, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 33.10641097976982, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 33.10641097976982, "required_final_county_share_points": 17.076660511059124, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 33.10641097976982, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 43510.93881335989, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 33.10641097976982, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 33.10641097976982, "required_final_county_share_points": 17.076660511059124, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 33.10641097976982, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 33.66991416855289, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 33.66991416855289, "required_final_county_share_points": 17.325043957424306, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.159018308558073, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999906, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 34.23040458039887, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 34.23040458039887, "required_final_county_share_points": 17.57209941854706, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.213613509684069, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.999999999999993, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -28.870484848750195, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "WELL BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.0010407614872549775, "criticality_score": 3.6049324862655785e-05, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 2131.7503645983447, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 3973.519465795307, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 4936.244810384153, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } } } }, { "cid": "26059", "county": "26059", "fips": null, "reporting": 0.0, "current_votes": 0, "current_candidate_votes": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 0, "Haley Stevens": 0, "Mallory McMorrow": 0 }, "current_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": null, "Haley Stevens": null, "Mallory McMorrow": null }, "estimated_remaining_votes": 1264.1567787725116, "estimated_final_votes": 1264.1567787725116, "turnout_disagreement_votes": 0.0, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 47.90680563223135, "Haley Stevens": 47.366648033244054, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.726546334524606 }, "remaining_sources": [ { "model": "market", "remaining_votes": 1264.1567787725116, "weight": 0.1780093144963334 } ], "share_sources": [ { "model": "v0", "weight": 0.03630604611298715, "source": "statewide raw" }, { "model": "v3", "weight": 0.06301781787712588, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "market", "weight": 0.18729675699179427, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "histgeo", "weight": 0.02760802595386354, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "latent", "weight": 0.03563066882913146, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "batchbias", "weight": 0.020512372723621893, "source": "statewide fallback" } ], "candidate_benchmarks": { "Abdul El-Sayed": { "opponent": "Haley Stevens", "expected_remaining_share_points": 47.90680563223135, "expected_final_county_share_points": 47.90680563223135, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 46.6839684484235, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 46.6839684484235, "required_final_county_share_points": 46.6839684484235, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 46.6839684484235, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": -1778.4336821751097, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": false }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 46.6839684484235, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 46.6839684484235, "required_final_county_share_points": 46.6839684484235, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 46.6839684484235, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 47.3341161918114, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 47.3341161918114, "required_final_county_share_points": 47.334116191811404, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.024044322225107804, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999973, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 47.98444296679915, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 47.98444296679915, "required_final_county_share_points": 47.98444296679915, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.003259695682198218, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.9999999999999996, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": 1.2228371838078473, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "ABOVE", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.0010297269995037297, "criticality_score": 0.0008420802156974134, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -2102.4059395932777, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -240.90056014239008, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 732.1412868085398, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Haley Stevens": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 47.366648033244054, "expected_final_county_share_points": 47.36664803324406, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.589485217051916, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.589485217051916, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.58948521705192, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 48.589485217051916, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1873.707135840585, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.589485217051916, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.589485217051916, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.58948521705192, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 48.589485217051916, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 49.23944755759535, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 49.23944755759535, "required_final_county_share_points": 49.23944755759535, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.07865391656842785, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.999999999999999, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 49.88921811990241, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 49.88921811990241, "required_final_county_share_points": 49.88921811990241, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.10597932088248406, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -1.2228371838078615, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.0010297269995037297, "criticality_score": 0.0008420802156974037, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 2197.679393258753, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 4059.18477270964, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 5032.226619660571, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Mallory McMorrow": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 4.726546334524606, "expected_final_county_share_points": 4.726546334524606, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 36.19378079591451, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 36.19378079591451, "required_final_county_share_points": 36.19378079591451, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 36.19378079591451, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 43977.64444039304, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 36.19378079591451, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 36.19378079591451, "required_final_county_share_points": 36.19378079591451, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 36.19378079591451, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 36.79530869719677, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 36.79530869719677, "required_final_county_share_points": 36.79530869719677, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.159018308558073, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999906, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 37.39314977634701, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 37.39314977634701, "required_final_county_share_points": 37.39314977634701, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.213613509684069, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.999999999999993, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -31.467234461389907, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "WELL BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.0010297269995037297, "criticality_score": 3.2723784505664076e-05, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 2155.0392915600337, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 4016.544671010921, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 4989.586517961851, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } } } }, { "cid": "fips:26059", "county": "Hillsdale", "fips": "26059", "reporting": 54.47, "current_votes": 1571, "current_candidate_votes": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 692, "Haley Stevens": 782, "Mallory McMorrow": 97 }, "current_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 44.04837683004455, "Haley Stevens": 49.77721196690006, "Mallory McMorrow": 6.174411203055379 }, "estimated_remaining_votes": 1264.1567787725116, "estimated_final_votes": 2835.1567787725116, "turnout_disagreement_votes": 0.0, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 45.82297625840502, "Haley Stevens": 48.800132940938745, "Mallory McMorrow": 5.376890800656231 }, "remaining_sources": [ { "model": "v3", "remaining_votes": 1264.1567787725116, "weight": 0.1342208488636769 }, { "model": "histgeo", "remaining_votes": 1264.1567787725116, "weight": 0.05994207394479305 }, { "model": "latent", "remaining_votes": 1264.1567787725116, "weight": 0.07672787409296966 }, { "model": "batchbias", "remaining_votes": 1264.1567787725116, "weight": 0.045123489075924846 } ], "share_sources": [ { "model": "v0", "weight": 0.03630604611298715, "source": "statewide raw" }, { "model": "v1", "weight": 0.14599140026529184, "source": "county live" }, { "model": "v3", "weight": 0.15004242351696637, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "market", "weight": 0.0786646379365536, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "histgeo", "weight": 0.06573339512824654, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "latent", "weight": 0.08483492578364633, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "batchbias", "weight": 0.04883898267529022, "source": "county remaining" } ], "candidate_benchmarks": { "Abdul El-Sayed": { "opponent": "Haley Stevens", "expected_remaining_share_points": 45.82297625840502, "expected_final_county_share_points": 44.83964591038761, "current_county_share_points": 44.04837683004455, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 44.61080501558737, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 44.61080501558737, "required_final_county_share_points": 44.29915569654326, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 44.61080501558737, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": -1780.5175115489337, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": false }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 44.61080501558737, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 44.61080501558737, "required_final_county_share_points": 44.29915569654326, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 44.61080501558737, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 45.25499439855413, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 45.25499439855413, "required_final_county_share_points": 44.58639073814236, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.024044322225107804, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999973, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 45.90001444094713, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 45.90001444094713, "required_final_county_share_points": 44.87399615916895, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.003259695682198218, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.9999999999999996, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": 1.2121712428176536, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "ABOVE", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.0010297269995037297, "criticality_score": 0.0008494897116270156, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -2104.489768967104, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -242.9843895162164, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 730.0574574347135, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Haley Stevens": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 48.800132940938745, "expected_final_county_share_points": 49.341546086510824, "current_county_share_points": 49.77721196690006, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 50.0123041837564, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 50.0123041837564, "required_final_county_share_points": 49.88203630035518, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 50.0123041837564, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1875.1406207482778, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 50.0123041837564, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 50.0123041837564, "required_final_county_share_points": 49.88203630035518, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 50.0123041837564, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 50.655658134447954, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 50.655658134447954, "required_final_county_share_points": 50.16889883438018, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.07865391656842785, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.999999999999999, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 51.2981718976128, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 51.2981718976128, "required_final_county_share_points": 50.45538674053086, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.10597932088248406, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -1.2121712428176536, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.0010297269995037297, "criticality_score": 0.0008494897116270156, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 2199.112878166448, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 4060.618257617335, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 5033.6601045682655, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Mallory McMorrow": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 5.376890800656231, "expected_final_county_share_points": 5.818808003101561, "current_county_share_points": 6.174411203055379, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 37.050208208433965, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 37.050208208433965, "required_final_county_share_points": 19.941497516092465, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 37.050208208433965, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 43978.29478485917, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 37.050208208433965, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 37.050208208433965, "required_final_county_share_points": 19.941497516092465, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 37.050208208433965, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 37.5939960552779, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 37.5939960552779, "required_final_county_share_points": 20.18396491611381, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.159018308558073, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999906, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 38.13239576317523, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 38.13239576317523, "required_final_county_share_points": 20.42402982029249, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.213613509684069, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.999999999999993, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -31.673317407777734, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "WELL BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.0010297269995037297, "criticality_score": 3.251086667829966e-05, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 2155.6896360261653, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 4017.1950154770525, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 4990.2368624279825, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } } } }, { "cid": "fips:26127", "county": "Oceana", "fips": "26127", "reporting": 51.29, "current_votes": 1350, "current_candidate_votes": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 530, "Haley Stevens": 772, "Mallory McMorrow": 48 }, "current_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 39.25925925925926, "Haley Stevens": 57.18518518518518, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.5555555555555554 }, "estimated_remaining_votes": 1240.3814241764385, "estimated_final_votes": 2590.3814241764385, "turnout_disagreement_votes": 0.0, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 42.78045962102668, "Haley Stevens": 53.571754131483985, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.647786247489357 }, "remaining_sources": [ { "model": "v3", "remaining_votes": 1240.3814241764385, "weight": 0.1342208488636769 }, { "model": "histgeo", "remaining_votes": 1240.3814241764385, "weight": 0.05994207394479305 }, { "model": "latent", "remaining_votes": 1240.3814241764385, "weight": 0.07672787409296966 }, { "model": "batchbias", "remaining_votes": 1240.3814241764385, "weight": 0.045123489075924846 } ], "share_sources": [ { "model": "v0", "weight": 0.03630604611298715, "source": "statewide raw" }, { "model": "v1", "weight": 0.14599140026529184, "source": "county live" }, { "model": "v3", "weight": 0.15004242351696637, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "market", "weight": 0.0786646379365536, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "histgeo", "weight": 0.06573339512824654, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "latent", "weight": 0.08483492578364633, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "batchbias", "weight": 0.04883898267529022, "source": "county remaining" } ], "candidate_benchmarks": { "Abdul El-Sayed": { "opponent": "Haley Stevens", "expected_remaining_share_points": 42.78045962102668, "expected_final_county_share_points": 40.94535516728882, "current_county_share_points": 39.25925925925926, "recent_batch_votes": 479, "recent_batch_share_points": 47.390396659707726, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 41.56292750719457, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 41.56292750719457, "required_final_county_share_points": 40.362350593815336, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 41.56292750719457, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": -1818.5669154747213, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": false }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 41.56292750719457, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 41.56292750719457, "required_final_county_share_points": 40.362350593815336, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 41.56292750719457, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 42.209340247099455, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 42.209340247099455, "required_final_county_share_points": 40.671879664494156, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.024044322225107804, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999973, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 42.8580085085387, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 42.8580085085387, "required_final_county_share_points": 40.98248877187604, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.003259695682198218, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.9999999999999996, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": 1.2175321138321067, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": 5.827469152513153, "status": "ABOVE", "recent_status": "WELL ABOVE", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.0010103606321658718, "criticality_score": 0.000829843106959885, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -2148.749000893601, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -251.56270135127636, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 740.1301947827196, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Haley Stevens": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 53.571754131483985, "expected_final_county_share_points": 55.4549254192983, "current_county_share_points": 57.18518518518518, "recent_batch_votes": 479, "recent_batch_share_points": 49.26931106471816, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 54.78928624531609, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 54.78928624531609, "required_final_county_share_points": 56.03792999277179, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 54.78928624531609, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1914.9191292272317, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 54.78928624531609, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 54.78928624531609, "required_final_county_share_points": 56.03792999277179, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 54.78928624531609, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 55.43344883002952, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 55.43344883002952, "required_final_county_share_points": 56.34638159637376, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.07865391656842785, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.999999999999999, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 56.07536662177534, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 56.07536662177534, "required_final_county_share_points": 56.65375830055277, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.10597932088248406, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -1.2175321138321067, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -5.519975180597932, "status": "BELOW", "recent_status": "WELL BELOW", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.0010103606321658718, "criticality_score": 0.000829843106959885, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 2245.1012146461117, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 4142.287514188436, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 5133.980410322433, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Mallory McMorrow": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 3.647786247489357, "expected_final_county_share_points": 3.599719413412897, "current_county_share_points": 3.5555555555555554, "recent_batch_votes": 479, "recent_batch_share_points": 3.3402922755741122, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 30.433648216457904, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 30.433648216457904, "required_final_county_share_points": 16.425894472719406, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 30.433648216457904, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 44819.42876675492, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 30.433648216457904, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 30.433648216457904, "required_final_county_share_points": 16.425894472719406, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 30.433648216457904, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 30.992480190119885, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 30.992480190119885, "required_final_county_share_points": 16.693486261672476, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.159018308558073, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999906, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 31.549788556167734, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 31.549788556167734, "required_final_county_share_points": 16.96034848448341, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.213613509684069, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.999999999999993, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -26.785861968968547, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -27.093355940883793, "status": "WELL BELOW", "recent_status": "WELL BELOW", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.0010103606321658718, "criticality_score": 3.771992229842653e-05, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 2195.177246762117, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 4092.3635463044416, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 5084.056442438438, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } } } }, { "cid": "26127", "county": "26127", "fips": null, "reporting": 0.0, "current_votes": 0, "current_candidate_votes": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 0, "Haley Stevens": 0, "Mallory McMorrow": 0 }, "current_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": null, "Haley Stevens": null, "Mallory McMorrow": null }, "estimated_remaining_votes": 1240.3814241764385, "estimated_final_votes": 1240.3814241764385, "turnout_disagreement_votes": 0.0, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 46.26976603544071, "Haley Stevens": 50.02884439597427, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.701389568585018 }, "remaining_sources": [ { "model": "market", "remaining_votes": 1240.3814241764385, "weight": 0.1780093144963334 } ], "share_sources": [ { "model": "v0", "weight": 0.03630604611298715, "source": "statewide raw" }, { "model": "v3", "weight": 0.06301781787712588, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "market", "weight": 0.18729675699179427, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "histgeo", "weight": 0.02760802595386354, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "latent", "weight": 0.03563066882913146, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "batchbias", "weight": 0.020512372723621893, "source": "statewide fallback" } ], "candidate_benchmarks": { "Abdul El-Sayed": { "opponent": "Haley Stevens", "expected_remaining_share_points": 46.26976603544071, "expected_final_county_share_points": 46.26976603544072, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 45.037029369992084, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 45.037029369992084, "required_final_county_share_points": 45.037029369992084, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 45.037029369992084, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": -1815.0776090603088, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": false }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 45.037029369992084, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 45.037029369992084, "required_final_county_share_points": 45.037029369992084, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 45.037029369992084, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 45.69208831568155, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 45.69208831568155, "required_final_county_share_points": 45.69208831568156, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.024044322225107804, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999973, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 46.348127412385274, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 46.348127412385274, "required_final_county_share_points": 46.34812741238527, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.003259695682198218, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.9999999999999996, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": 1.232736665448627, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "ABOVE", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.0010103606321658718, "criticality_score": 0.0008196078371678624, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -2145.259694479187, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -248.07339493686234, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 743.6195011971337, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Haley Stevens": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 50.02884439597427, "expected_final_county_share_points": 50.02884439597427, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 51.26158106142289, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 51.26158106142289, "required_final_county_share_points": 51.26158106142289, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 51.26158106142289, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1911.3762194917235, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 51.26158106142289, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 51.26158106142289, "required_final_county_share_points": 51.26158106142289, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 51.26158106142289, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 51.91565556904912, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 51.91565556904912, "required_final_county_share_points": 51.91565556904912, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.07865391656842785, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.999999999999999, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 52.568741372427276, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 52.568741372427276, "required_final_county_share_points": 52.568741372427276, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.10597932088248406, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -1.2327366654486198, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.0010103606321658718, "criticality_score": 0.000819607837167867, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 2241.558304910602, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 4138.744604452926, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 5130.437500586923, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Mallory McMorrow": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 3.701389568585018, "expected_final_county_share_points": 3.7013895685850184, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 32.0288806705017, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 32.0288806705017, "required_final_county_share_points": 32.0288806705017, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 32.0288806705017, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 44819.48237007602, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 32.0288806705017, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 32.0288806705017, "required_final_county_share_points": 32.0288806705017, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 32.0288806705017, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 32.64232199494372, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 32.64232199494372, "required_final_county_share_points": 32.64232199494372, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.159018308558073, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999906, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 33.255039969712776, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 33.255039969712776, "required_final_county_share_points": 33.255039969712776, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.213613509684069, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.999999999999993, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -28.32749110191668, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "WELL BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.0010103606321658718, "criticality_score": 3.566714145388997e-05, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 2195.2308500832128, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 4092.417149625537, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 5084.110045759534, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } } } }, { "cid": "26003", "county": "26003", "fips": null, "reporting": 0.0, "current_votes": 0, "current_candidate_votes": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 0, "Haley Stevens": 0, "Mallory McMorrow": 0 }, "current_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": null, "Haley Stevens": null, "Mallory McMorrow": null }, "estimated_remaining_votes": 1187.3829746305028, "estimated_final_votes": 1187.3829746305028, "turnout_disagreement_votes": 0.0, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 49.78107924606265, "Haley Stevens": 44.19033989539461, "Mallory McMorrow": 6.028580858542726 }, "remaining_sources": [ { "model": "market", "remaining_votes": 1187.3829746305028, "weight": 0.1780093144963334 } ], "share_sources": [ { "model": "v0", "weight": 0.03630604611298715, "source": "statewide raw" }, { "model": "v3", "weight": 0.06301781787712588, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "market", "weight": 0.18729675699179427, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "histgeo", "weight": 0.02760802595386354, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "latent", "weight": 0.03563066882913146, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "batchbias", "weight": 0.020512372723621893, "source": "statewide fallback" } ], "candidate_benchmarks": { "Abdul El-Sayed": { "opponent": "Haley Stevens", "expected_remaining_share_points": 49.78107924606265, "expected_final_county_share_points": 49.78107924606265, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.57752122295603, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.57752122295603, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.57752122295603, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 48.57752122295603, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": -1894.6469253131233, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": false }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.57752122295603, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.57752122295603, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.57752122295603, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 48.57752122295603, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 49.21783313064474, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 49.21783313064474, "required_final_county_share_points": 49.21783313064474, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.024044322225107804, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999973, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 49.85738028071766, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 49.85738028071766, "required_final_county_share_points": 49.85738028071766, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.003259695682198218, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.9999999999999996, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": 1.2035580231066234, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "ABOVE", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.0009671904056989639, "criticality_score": 0.0008036092877370818, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -2239.566579796853, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -257.69999215554924, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 778.2567910677624, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Haley Stevens": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 44.19033989539461, "expected_final_county_share_points": 44.19033989539461, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 45.39389791850123, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 45.39389791850123, "required_final_county_share_points": 45.39389791850123, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 45.39389791850123, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1988.6183444545807, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 45.39389791850123, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 45.39389791850123, "required_final_county_share_points": 45.39389791850123, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 45.39389791850123, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 46.034969594667984, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 46.034969594667984, "required_final_county_share_points": 46.034969594667984, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.07865391656842785, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.999999999999999, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 46.67679601191516, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 46.67679601191516, "required_final_county_share_points": 46.67679601191515, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.10597932088248406, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -1.2035580231066234, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.0009671904056989639, "criticality_score": 0.0008036092877370818, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 2333.5379989383105, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 4315.404586579614, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 5351.361369802927, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Mallory McMorrow": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 6.028580858542726, "expected_final_county_share_points": 6.028580858542726, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 40.73569294218947, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 40.73569294218947, "required_final_county_share_points": 40.73569294218947, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 40.73569294218947, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 46822.14724339839, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 40.73569294218947, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 40.73569294218947, "required_final_county_share_points": 40.73569294218947, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 40.73569294218947, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 41.31982430328867, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 41.31982430328867, "required_final_county_share_points": 41.31982430328867, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.159018308558073, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999906, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 41.89778507077519, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 41.89778507077519, "required_final_county_share_points": 41.89778507077519, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.213613509684069, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.999999999999993, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -34.70711208364675, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "WELL BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.0009671904056989639, "criticality_score": 2.7867210713699323e-05, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 2295.3762399014586, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 4277.242827542763, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 5313.199610766075, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } } } }, { "cid": "fips:26003", "county": "Alger", "fips": "26003", "reporting": 20.65, "current_votes": 291, "current_candidate_votes": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 152, "Haley Stevens": 107, "Mallory McMorrow": 32 }, "current_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 52.23367697594502, "Haley Stevens": 36.769759450171826, "Mallory McMorrow": 10.996563573883162 }, "estimated_remaining_votes": 1187.3829746305028, "estimated_final_votes": 1478.3829746305028, "turnout_disagreement_votes": 0.0, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 50.733700729169016, "Haley Stevens": 41.848202633581764, "Mallory McMorrow": 7.418096637249221 }, "remaining_sources": [ { "model": "v3", "remaining_votes": 1187.3829746305028, "weight": 0.1342208488636769 }, { "model": "histgeo", "remaining_votes": 1187.3829746305028, "weight": 0.05994207394479305 }, { "model": "latent", "remaining_votes": 1187.3829746305028, "weight": 0.07672787409296966 }, { "model": "batchbias", "remaining_votes": 1187.3829746305028, "weight": 0.045123489075924846 } ], "share_sources": [ { "model": "v0", "weight": 0.03630604611298715, "source": "statewide raw" }, { "model": "v1", "weight": 0.14599140026529184, "source": "county live" }, { "model": "v3", "weight": 0.15004242351696637, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "market", "weight": 0.0786646379365536, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "histgeo", "weight": 0.06573339512824654, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "latent", "weight": 0.08483492578364633, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "batchbias", "weight": 0.04883898267529022, "source": "county remaining" } ], "candidate_benchmarks": { "Abdul El-Sayed": { "opponent": "Haley Stevens", "expected_remaining_share_points": 50.733700729169016, "expected_final_county_share_points": 51.02895107721967, "current_county_share_points": 52.23367697594502, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 49.553581520396875, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 49.553581520396875, "required_final_county_share_points": 50.0811226183045, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 49.553581520396875, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": -1893.6943038300183, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": false }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 49.553581520396875, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 49.553581520396875, "required_final_county_share_points": 50.0811226183045, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 49.553581520396875, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 50.18169926774429, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 50.18169926774429, "required_final_county_share_points": 50.58560375212572, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.024044322225107804, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999973, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 50.808441227926124, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 50.808441227926124, "required_final_county_share_points": 51.08897990416268, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.003259695682198218, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.9999999999999996, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": 1.1801192087721404, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "ABOVE", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.0009671904056989639, "criticality_score": 0.000819570089622794, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -2238.613958313747, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -256.74737067244286, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 779.2094125508688, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Haley Stevens": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 41.848202633581764, "expected_final_county_share_points": 40.84857872574986, "current_county_share_points": 36.769759450171826, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 43.028321842353904, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 43.028321842353904, "required_final_county_share_points": 41.796407184665036, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 43.028321842353904, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1986.2762071927687, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 43.028321842353904, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 43.028321842353904, "required_final_county_share_points": 41.796407184665036, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 43.028321842353904, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 43.65781366202224, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 43.65781366202224, "required_final_county_share_points": 42.301991922970196, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.07865391656842785, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.999999999999999, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 44.28867779320415, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 44.28867779320415, "required_final_county_share_points": 42.808678851543405, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.10597932088248406, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -1.1801192087721404, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.0009671904056989639, "criticality_score": 0.000819570089622794, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 2331.1958616764978, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 4313.062449317801, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 5349.0192325411135, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Mallory McMorrow": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 7.418096637249221, "expected_final_county_share_points": 8.122470197030468, "current_county_share_points": 10.996563573883162, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 44.51016120478676, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 44.51016120478676, "required_final_county_share_points": 37.91345583280397, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 44.51016120478676, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 46823.5367591771, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 44.51016120478676, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 44.51016120478676, "required_final_county_share_points": 37.91345583280397, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 44.51016120478676, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 45.06346257864349, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 45.06346257864349, "required_final_county_share_points": 38.35784719987943, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.159018308558073, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999906, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 45.608873470073505, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 45.608873470073505, "required_final_county_share_points": 38.79590122091137, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.213613509684069, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.999999999999993, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -37.09206456753754, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "WELL BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.0009671904056989639, "criticality_score": 2.6075399603003912e-05, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 2296.765755680165, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 4278.632343321469, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 5314.589126544782, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } } } }, { "cid": "26067", "county": "26067", "fips": null, "reporting": 0.0, "current_votes": 0, "current_candidate_votes": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 0, "Haley Stevens": 0, "Mallory McMorrow": 0 }, "current_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": null, "Haley Stevens": null, "Mallory McMorrow": null }, "estimated_remaining_votes": 1155.4377744995945, "estimated_final_votes": 1155.4377744995945, "turnout_disagreement_votes": 0.0, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 49.310104438730704, "Haley Stevens": 46.81016573932359, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.8797298219457037 }, "remaining_sources": [ { "model": "market", "remaining_votes": 1155.4377744995945, "weight": 0.1780093144963334 } ], "share_sources": [ { "model": "v0", "weight": 0.03630604611298715, "source": "statewide raw" }, { "model": "v3", "weight": 0.06301781787712588, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "market", "weight": 0.18729675699179427, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "histgeo", "weight": 0.02760802595386354, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "latent", "weight": 0.03563066882913146, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "batchbias", "weight": 0.020512372723621893, "source": "statewide fallback" } ], "candidate_benchmarks": { "Abdul El-Sayed": { "opponent": "Haley Stevens", "expected_remaining_share_points": 49.310104438730704, "expected_final_county_share_points": 49.310104438730704, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.076549179833556, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.076549179833556, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.076549179833556, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 48.076549179833556, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": -1948.8768676015827, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": false }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.076549179833556, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.076549179833556, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.076549179833556, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 48.076549179833556, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.73255582712759, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.73255582712759, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.73255582712759, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.024044322225107804, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999973, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 49.38837877284581, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 49.38837877284581, "required_final_county_share_points": 49.38837877284581, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.003259695682198218, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.9999999999999996, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": 1.2335552588971481, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "ABOVE", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.0009411692383629892, "criticality_score": 0.0007629729041927439, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -2303.3327581637413, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -266.6721122250261, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 797.9264961985851, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Haley Stevens": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 46.81016573932359, "expected_final_county_share_points": 46.81016573932358, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.043720998220735, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.043720998220735, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.043720998220735, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 48.043720998220735, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 2044.997137779637, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.043720998220735, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.043720998220735, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.043720998220735, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 48.043720998220735, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.69990491562012, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.69990491562012, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.69990491562012, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.07865391656842785, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.999999999999999, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 49.35625965308465, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 49.35625965308465, "required_final_county_share_points": 49.35625965308465, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.10597932088248406, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -1.2335552588971481, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.0009411692383629892, "criticality_score": 0.0007629729041927439, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 2399.4530283417957, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 4436.11367428051, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 5500.712282704122, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Mallory McMorrow": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 3.8797298219457037, "expected_final_county_share_points": 3.8797298219457037, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 33.888423759904335, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 33.888423759904335, "required_final_county_share_points": 33.888423759904335, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 33.888423759904335, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 48114.356524866926, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 33.888423759904335, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 33.888423759904335, "required_final_county_share_points": 33.888423759904335, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 33.888423759904335, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 34.54452907635709, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 34.54452907635709, "required_final_county_share_points": 34.54452907635709, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.159018308558073, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999906, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 35.200128120057784, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 35.200128120057784, "required_final_county_share_points": 35.200128120057784, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.213613509684069, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.999999999999993, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -30.008693937958633, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "WELL BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.0009411692383629892, "criticality_score": 3.136321894944199e-05, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 2356.522592424418, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 4393.183238363133, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 5457.781846786745, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } } } }, { "cid": "fips:26153", "county": "Schoolcraft", "fips": "26153", "reporting": 0.0, "current_votes": 0, "current_candidate_votes": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 0, "Haley Stevens": 0, "Mallory McMorrow": 0 }, "current_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": null, "Haley Stevens": null, "Mallory McMorrow": null }, "estimated_remaining_votes": 987.1481570043143, "estimated_final_votes": 987.1481570043143, "turnout_disagreement_votes": 1.1368683772161603e-13, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 49.054050055778966, "Haley Stevens": 47.06205793393476, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.8838920102862757 }, "remaining_sources": [ { "model": "v3", "remaining_votes": 987.1481570043142, "weight": 0.1342208488636769 }, { "model": "histgeo", "remaining_votes": 987.1481570043142, "weight": 0.05994207394479305 }, { "model": "latent", "remaining_votes": 987.1481570043142, "weight": 0.07672787409296966 }, { "model": "batchbias", "remaining_votes": 987.1481570043142, "weight": 0.045123489075924846 } ], "share_sources": [ { "model": "v0", "weight": 0.03630604611298715, "source": "statewide raw" }, { "model": "v3", "weight": 0.15004242351696637, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "market", "weight": 0.0786646379365536, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "histgeo", "weight": 0.06573339512824654, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "latent", "weight": 0.08483492578364633, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "batchbias", "weight": 0.04883898267529022, "source": "county remaining" } ], "candidate_benchmarks": { "Abdul El-Sayed": { "opponent": "Haley Stevens", "expected_remaining_share_points": 49.054050055778966, "expected_final_county_share_points": 49.05405005577896, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 47.820410841463485, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 47.820410841463485, "required_final_county_share_points": 47.820410841463485, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 47.820410841463485, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": -2289.7850508698307, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": false }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 47.820410841463485, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 47.820410841463485, "required_final_county_share_points": 47.820410841463485, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 47.820410841463485, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.47642045549751, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.47642045549751, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.47642045549751, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.024044322225107804, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999973, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 49.132341014357, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 49.132341014357, "required_final_county_share_points": 49.132341014357, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.003259695682198218, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.9999999999999996, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": 1.233639214315481, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "ABOVE", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.0008040878527461584, "criticality_score": 0.0006518014695182406, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -2704.6687969857876, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -320.7970068629488, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 925.2950190647931, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Haley Stevens": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 47.06205793393476, "expected_final_county_share_points": 47.06205793393476, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.29569714825025, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.29569714825025, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.29569714825025, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 48.29569714825025, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 2385.9011588595445, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.29569714825025, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.29569714825025, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.29569714825025, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 48.29569714825025, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.95178932831056, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.95178932831056, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.95178932831056, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.07865391656842785, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.999999999999999, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 49.60795757040527, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 49.60795757040527, "required_final_county_share_points": 49.60795757040527, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.10597932088248406, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -1.2336392143154882, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.0008040878527461584, "criticality_score": 0.0006518014695182369, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 2800.7849049755014, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 5184.65669509834, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 6430.748721026082, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Mallory McMorrow": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 3.8838920102862757, "expected_final_county_share_points": 3.883892010286276, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 33.8047145477324, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 33.8047145477324, "required_final_county_share_points": 33.8047145477324, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 33.8047145477324, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 56316.26399802734, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 33.8047145477324, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 33.8047145477324, "required_final_county_share_points": 33.8047145477324, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 33.8047145477324, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 34.45653296572884, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 34.45653296572884, "required_final_county_share_points": 34.45653296572884, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.159018308558073, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999906, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 35.10774767658412, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 35.10774767658412, "required_final_county_share_points": 35.10774767658412, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.213613509684069, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.999999999999993, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -29.920822537446128, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "WELL BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.0008040878527461584, "criticality_score": 2.6873855213700647e-05, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 2757.606739051853, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 5141.478529174691, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 6387.570555102434, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } } } }, { "cid": "26153", "county": "26153", "fips": null, "reporting": 0.0, "current_votes": 0, "current_candidate_votes": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 0, "Haley Stevens": 0, "Mallory McMorrow": 0 }, "current_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": null, "Haley Stevens": null, "Mallory McMorrow": null }, "estimated_remaining_votes": 987.1481570043142, "estimated_final_votes": 987.1481570043142, "turnout_disagreement_votes": 0.0, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 48.973903537573875, "Haley Stevens": 46.149745434179586, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.8763510282465425 }, "remaining_sources": [ { "model": "market", "remaining_votes": 987.1481570043142, "weight": 0.1780093144963334 } ], "share_sources": [ { "model": "v0", "weight": 0.03630604611298715, "source": "statewide raw" }, { "model": "v3", "weight": 0.06301781787712588, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "market", "weight": 0.18729675699179427, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "histgeo", "weight": 0.02760802595386354, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "latent", "weight": 0.03563066882913146, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "batchbias", "weight": 0.020512372723621893, "source": "statewide fallback" } ], "candidate_benchmarks": { "Abdul El-Sayed": { "opponent": "Haley Stevens", "expected_remaining_share_points": 48.973903537573875, "expected_final_county_share_points": 48.97390353757388, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 47.75327342108671, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 47.75327342108671, "required_final_county_share_points": 47.75327342108671, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 47.75327342108671, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": -2289.8651973880324, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": false }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 47.75327342108671, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 47.75327342108671, "required_final_county_share_points": 47.75327342108671, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 47.75327342108671, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.402435191598066, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.402435191598066, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.402435191598066, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.024044322225107804, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999973, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 49.05134992915548, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 49.05134992915548, "required_final_county_share_points": 49.05134992915548, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.003259695682198218, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.9999999999999996, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": 1.2206301164871647, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "ABOVE", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.0008040878527461583, "criticality_score": 0.0006587481677580037, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -2704.7489435039934, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -320.877153381154, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 925.2148725465881, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Haley Stevens": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 46.149745434179586, "expected_final_county_share_points": 46.14974543417958, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 47.37037555066674, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 47.37037555066674, "required_final_county_share_points": 47.37037555066674, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 47.37037555066674, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 2384.988846359786, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 47.37037555066674, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 47.37037555066674, "required_final_county_share_points": 47.37037555066674, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 47.37037555066674, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.01977805349677, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.01977805349677, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.01977805349677, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.07865391656842785, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.999999999999999, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.6694149671013, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.6694149671013, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.6694149671013, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.10597932088248406, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -1.2206301164871576, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.0008040878527461583, "criticality_score": 0.0006587481677580075, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 2799.872592475747, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 5183.744382598586, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 6429.836408526328, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Mallory McMorrow": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 4.8763510282465425, "expected_final_county_share_points": 4.876351028246543, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 37.136501345834354, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 37.136501345834354, "required_final_county_share_points": 37.136501345834354, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 37.136501345834354, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 56317.25645704531, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 37.136501345834354, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 37.136501345834354, "required_final_county_share_points": 37.136501345834354, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 37.136501345834354, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 37.749746513256014, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 37.749746513256014, "required_final_county_share_points": 37.749746513256014, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.159018308558073, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999906, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 38.359105897231565, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 38.359105897231565, "required_final_county_share_points": 38.359105897231565, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.213613509684069, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.999999999999993, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -32.260150317587815, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "WELL BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.0008040878527461583, "criticality_score": 2.4925111781260984e-05, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 2758.5991980698136, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 5142.470988192653, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 6388.563014120396, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } } } }, { "cid": "26119", "county": "26119", "fips": null, "reporting": 0.0, "current_votes": 0, "current_candidate_votes": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 0, "Haley Stevens": 0, "Mallory McMorrow": 0 }, "current_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": null, "Haley Stevens": null, "Mallory McMorrow": null }, "estimated_remaining_votes": 970.8193904974759, "estimated_final_votes": 970.8193904974759, "turnout_disagreement_votes": 0.0, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 48.27100217759222, "Haley Stevens": 47.573041127080906, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.155956695326873 }, "remaining_sources": [ { "model": "market", "remaining_votes": 970.8193904974759, "weight": 0.1780093144963334 } ], "share_sources": [ { "model": "v0", "weight": 0.03630604611298715, "source": "statewide raw" }, { "model": "v3", "weight": 0.06301781787712588, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "market", "weight": 0.18729675699179427, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "histgeo", "weight": 0.02760802595386354, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "latent", "weight": 0.03563066882913146, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "batchbias", "weight": 0.020512372723621893, "source": "statewide fallback" } ], "candidate_benchmarks": { "Abdul El-Sayed": { "opponent": "Haley Stevens", "expected_remaining_share_points": 48.27100217759222, "expected_final_county_share_points": 48.27100217759222, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 47.04081622790371, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 47.04081622790371, "required_final_county_share_points": 47.04081622790371, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 47.04081622790371, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": -2329.9063710877417, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": false }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 47.04081622790371, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 47.04081622790371, "required_final_county_share_points": 47.04081622790371, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 47.04081622790371, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 47.694883782522766, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 47.694883782522766, "required_final_county_share_points": 47.694883782522766, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.024044322225107804, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999973, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.34910264295541, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.34910264295541, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.34910264295541, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.003259695682198218, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.9999999999999996, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": 1.2301859496885115, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "ABOVE", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.0007907871514225376, "criticality_score": 0.0006428192027577363, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -2751.768284187304, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -327.8007911724904, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 939.2499691362993, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Haley Stevens": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 47.573041127080906, "expected_final_county_share_points": 47.573041127080906, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.8032270767694, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.8032270767694, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.8032270767694, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 48.8032270767694, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 2425.750414392415, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.8032270767694, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.8032270767694, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.8032270767694, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 48.8032270767694, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 49.45713689360831, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 49.45713689360831, "required_final_county_share_points": 49.45713689360831, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.07865391656842785, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.999999999999999, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 50.11088253540306, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 50.11088253540306, "required_final_county_share_points": 50.11088253540306, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.10597932088248406, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -1.2301859496884973, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.0007907871514225376, "criticality_score": 0.0006428192027577437, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 2847.6123274919773, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 5271.5798205067895, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 6538.63058081558, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Mallory McMorrow": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 4.155956695326873, "expected_final_county_share_points": 4.155956695326873, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 34.480137780876035, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 34.480137780876035, "required_final_county_share_points": 34.480137780876035, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 34.480137780876035, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 57263.68618681971, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 34.480137780876035, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 34.480137780876035, "required_final_county_share_points": 34.480137780876035, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 34.480137780876035, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 35.10919125118339, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 35.10919125118339, "required_final_county_share_points": 35.10919125118339, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.159018308558073, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999906, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 35.73638403953086, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 35.73638403953086, "required_final_county_share_points": 35.73638403953086, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.213613509684069, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.999999999999993, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -30.324181085549164, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "WELL BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.0007907871514225376, "criticality_score": 2.6077774340932928e-05, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 2804.195243060223, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 5228.162736075035, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 6495.213496383826, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } } } }, { "cid": "fips:26119", "county": "Montmorency", "fips": "26119", "reporting": 0.0, "current_votes": 0, "current_candidate_votes": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 0, "Haley Stevens": 0, "Mallory McMorrow": 0 }, "current_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": null, "Haley Stevens": null, "Mallory McMorrow": null }, "estimated_remaining_votes": 970.8193904974759, "estimated_final_votes": 970.8193904974759, "turnout_disagreement_votes": 0.0, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 49.03949384088323, "Haley Stevens": 47.07407323538083, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.8864329237359323 }, "remaining_sources": [ { "model": "v3", "remaining_votes": 970.8193904974759, "weight": 0.1342208488636769 }, { "model": "histgeo", "remaining_votes": 970.8193904974759, "weight": 0.05994207394479305 }, { "model": "latent", "remaining_votes": 970.8193904974759, "weight": 0.07672787409296966 }, { "model": "batchbias", "remaining_votes": 970.8193904974759, "weight": 0.045123489075924846 } ], "share_sources": [ { "model": "v0", "weight": 0.03630604611298715, "source": "statewide raw" }, { "model": "v3", "weight": 0.15004242351696637, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "market", "weight": 0.0786646379365536, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "histgeo", "weight": 0.06573339512824654, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "latent", "weight": 0.08483492578364633, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "batchbias", "weight": 0.04883898267529022, "source": "county remaining" } ], "candidate_benchmarks": { "Abdul El-Sayed": { "opponent": "Haley Stevens", "expected_remaining_share_points": 49.03949384088323, "expected_final_county_share_points": 49.03949384088323, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 47.80588195962072, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 47.80588195962072, "required_final_county_share_points": 47.80588195962072, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 47.80588195962072, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": -2329.1378794244542, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": false }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 47.80588195962072, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 47.80588195962072, "required_final_county_share_points": 47.80588195962072, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 47.80588195962072, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.461874862415456, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.461874862415456, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.461874862415456, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.024044322225107804, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999973, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 49.117783654746304, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 49.117783654746304, "required_final_county_share_points": 49.117783654746304, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.003259695682198218, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.9999999999999996, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": 1.2336118812625116, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "ABOVE", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.0007907871514225376, "criticality_score": 0.0006410339941061728, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -2750.999792524013, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -327.0322995091994, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 940.0184607995903, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Haley Stevens": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 47.07407323538083, "expected_final_county_share_points": 47.07407323538084, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.30768511664335, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.30768511664335, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.30768511664335, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 48.30768511664335, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 2425.251446500719, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.30768511664335, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.30768511664335, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.30768511664335, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 48.30768511664335, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.963755639034986, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.963755639034986, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.963755639034986, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.07865391656842785, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.999999999999999, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 49.619897275509025, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 49.619897275509025, "required_final_county_share_points": 49.619897275509025, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.10597932088248406, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -1.2336118812625188, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.0007907871514225376, "criticality_score": 0.0006410339941061691, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 2847.113359600277, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 5271.0808526150895, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 6538.13161292388, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Mallory McMorrow": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 3.8864329237359323, "expected_final_county_share_points": 3.886432923735932, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 33.80865440728037, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 33.80865440728037, "required_final_county_share_points": 33.80865440728037, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 33.80865440728037, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 57263.41666304812, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 33.80865440728037, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 33.80865440728037, "required_final_county_share_points": 33.80865440728037, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 33.80865440728037, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 34.460145424130964, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 34.460145424130964, "required_final_county_share_points": 34.460145424130964, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.159018308558073, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999906, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 35.11101780671713, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 35.11101780671713, "required_final_county_share_points": 35.11101780671712, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.213613509684069, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.999999999999993, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -29.92222148354444, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "WELL BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.0007907871514225376, "criticality_score": 2.6428089634234766e-05, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 2803.925719288632, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 5227.893212303445, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 6494.9439726122355, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } } } }, { "cid": "fips:26149", "county": "St. Joseph", "fips": "26149", "reporting": 73.25, "current_votes": 4494, "current_candidate_votes": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 2060, "Haley Stevens": 2177, "Mallory McMorrow": 257 }, "current_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 45.83889630618603, "Haley Stevens": 48.442367601246104, "Mallory McMorrow": 5.718736092567869 }, "estimated_remaining_votes": 902.6344709897611, "estimated_final_votes": 5396.634470989761, "turnout_disagreement_votes": 470.89502924808846, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 46.86851449995504, "Haley Stevens": 47.973021443942194, "Mallory McMorrow": 5.158464056102759 }, "remaining_sources": [ { "model": "v3", "remaining_votes": 431.73944174167264, "weight": 0.1342208488636769 }, { "model": "histgeo", "remaining_votes": 431.73944174167264, "weight": 0.05994207394479305 }, { "model": "latent", "remaining_votes": 431.73944174167264, "weight": 0.07672787409296966 }, { "model": "batchbias", "remaining_votes": 431.73944174167264, "weight": 0.045123489075924846 } ], "share_sources": [ { "model": "v0", "weight": 0.03630604611298715, "source": "statewide raw" }, { "model": "v1", "weight": 0.14599140026529184, "source": "county live" }, { "model": "v3", "weight": 0.15004242351696637, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "market", "weight": 0.0786646379365536, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "histgeo", "weight": 0.06573339512824654, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "latent", "weight": 0.08483492578364633, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "batchbias", "weight": 0.04883898267529022, "source": "county remaining" } ], "candidate_benchmarks": { "Abdul El-Sayed": { "opponent": "Haley Stevens", "expected_remaining_share_points": 46.86851449995504, "expected_final_county_share_points": 46.011108984041094, "current_county_share_points": 45.83889630618603, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 45.65188775333666, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 45.65188775333666, "required_final_county_share_points": 45.807617484713276, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 45.65188775333666, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": -2510.9561445524573, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": false }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 45.65188775333666, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 45.65188775333666, "required_final_county_share_points": 45.807617484713276, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 45.65188775333666, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 46.298598956611485, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 46.298598956611485, "required_final_county_share_points": 45.91578560838167, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.024044322225107804, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999973, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 46.9457940523936, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 46.9457940523936, "required_final_county_share_points": 46.024034667318084, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.003259695682198218, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.9999999999999996, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": 1.216626746618381, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "ABOVE", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.000735246688597778, "criticality_score": 0.0006043321755348542, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -2964.6854652378643, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -357.6117052761423, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1005.1519453337578, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Haley Stevens": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 47.973021443942194, "expected_final_county_share_points": 48.363865337902816, "current_county_share_points": 48.442367601246104, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 49.18964819056056, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 49.18964819056056, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.567356837230626, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 49.18964819056056, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 2605.797680496355, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 49.18964819056056, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 49.18964819056056, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.567356837230626, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 49.18964819056056, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 49.83586963726213, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 49.83586963726213, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.67544304481451, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.07865391656842785, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.999999999999999, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 50.481595470526784, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 50.481595470526784, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.783446356702036, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.10597932088248406, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -1.216626746618367, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.000735246688597778, "criticality_score": 0.0006043321755348612, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 3059.5270011817615, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 5666.6007611434825, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 7029.364411753383, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Mallory McMorrow": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 5.158464056102759, "expected_final_county_share_points": 5.625025678056083, "current_county_share_points": 5.718736092567869, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 36.97306363539346, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 36.97306363539346, "required_final_county_share_points": 10.946296632273098, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 36.97306363539346, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 61590.067998063605, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 36.97306363539346, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 36.97306363539346, "required_final_county_share_points": 10.946296632273098, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 36.97306363539346, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 37.54161229809277, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 37.54161229809277, "required_final_county_share_points": 11.041391385150336, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.159018308558073, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999906, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 38.10530119734073, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 38.10530119734073, "required_final_county_share_points": 11.13567329994568, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.213613509684069, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.999999999999993, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -31.8145995792907, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "WELL BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.000735246688597778, "criticality_score": 2.3110354941458302e-05, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 3016.712443793922, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 5623.786203755643, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 6986.549854365544, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } } } }, { "cid": "fips:26069", "county": "Iosco", "fips": "26069", "reporting": 68.61, "current_votes": 3460, "current_candidate_votes": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 1338, "Haley Stevens": 1934, "Mallory McMorrow": 188 }, "current_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 38.67052023121387, "Haley Stevens": 55.895953757225435, "Mallory McMorrow": 5.433526011560693 }, "estimated_remaining_votes": 870.6481562454451, "estimated_final_votes": 4330.648156245445, "turnout_disagreement_votes": 257.3568560303338, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 41.80859004391156, "Haley Stevens": 53.24047229596726, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.950937660121192 }, "remaining_sources": [ { "model": "v3", "remaining_votes": 613.2913002151113, "weight": 0.1342208488636769 }, { "model": "histgeo", "remaining_votes": 613.2913002151113, "weight": 0.05994207394479305 }, { "model": "latent", "remaining_votes": 613.2913002151113, "weight": 0.07672787409296966 }, { "model": "batchbias", "remaining_votes": 613.2913002151113, "weight": 0.045123489075924846 } ], "share_sources": [ { "model": "v0", "weight": 0.03630604611298715, "source": "statewide raw" }, { "model": "v1", "weight": 0.14599140026529184, "source": "county live" }, { "model": "v3", "weight": 0.15004242351696637, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "market", "weight": 0.0786646379365536, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "histgeo", "weight": 0.06573339512824654, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "latent", "weight": 0.08483492578364633, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "batchbias", "weight": 0.04883898267529022, "source": "county remaining" } ], "candidate_benchmarks": { "Abdul El-Sayed": { "opponent": "Haley Stevens", "expected_remaining_share_points": 41.80859004391156, "expected_final_county_share_points": 39.30140840268875, "current_county_share_points": 38.67052023121387, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 40.61011657485963, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 40.61011657485963, "required_final_county_share_points": 39.06046324194317, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 40.61011657485963, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": -2609.9867321499078, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": false }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 40.61011657485963, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 40.61011657485963, "required_final_county_share_points": 39.06046324194317, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 40.61011657485963, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 41.246347482975054, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 41.246347482975054, "required_final_county_share_points": 39.1883732561285, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.024044322225107804, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999973, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 41.88494221639375, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 41.88494221639375, "required_final_county_share_points": 39.31675850174982, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.003259695682198218, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.9999999999999996, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": 1.198473469051926, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "ABOVE", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.000709192031090164, "criticality_score": 0.0005917461248860044, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -3080.3853913689763, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -377.5316297503344, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1035.2979249079892, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Haley Stevens": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 53.24047229596726, "expected_final_county_share_points": 55.36208678055726, "current_county_share_points": 55.895953757225435, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 54.43894576501918, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 54.43894576501918, "required_final_county_share_points": 55.60303194130285, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 54.43894576501918, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 2705.0357944897864, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 54.43894576501918, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 54.43894576501918, "required_final_county_share_points": 55.60303194130285, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 54.43894576501918, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 55.07281967362555, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 55.07281967362555, "required_final_county_share_points": 55.73046809633298, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.07865391656842785, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.999999999999999, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 55.70434339349869, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 55.70434339349869, "required_final_county_share_points": 55.8574317614693, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.10597932088248406, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -1.198473469051919, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.000709192031090164, "criticality_score": 0.0005917461248860079, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 3175.434453708855, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 5878.288215327496, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 7291.11776998582, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Mallory McMorrow": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 4.950937660121192, "expected_final_county_share_points": 5.336504816754003, "current_county_share_points": 5.433526011560693, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 33.92239974415517, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 33.92239974415517, "required_final_county_share_points": 11.161025566799761, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 33.92239974415517, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 63852.39819798616, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 33.92239974415517, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 33.92239974415517, "required_final_county_share_points": 11.161025566799761, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 33.92239974415517, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 34.41694257620935, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 34.41694257620935, "required_final_county_share_points": 11.260450130832151, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.159018308558073, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999906, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 34.90649072564821, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 34.90649072564821, "required_final_county_share_points": 11.358870546974163, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.213613509684069, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.999999999999993, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -28.97146208403398, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "WELL BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.000709192031090164, "criticality_score": 2.447898656385022e-05, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 3127.144919073009, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 5829.9986806916495, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 7242.8282353499735, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } } } }, { "cid": "26137", "county": "26137", "fips": null, "reporting": 0.0, "current_votes": 0, "current_candidate_votes": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 0, "Haley Stevens": 0, "Mallory McMorrow": 0 }, "current_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": null, "Haley Stevens": null, "Mallory McMorrow": null }, "estimated_remaining_votes": 852.2585725086306, "estimated_final_votes": 852.2585725086306, "turnout_disagreement_votes": 0.0, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 47.73334889983432, "Haley Stevens": 47.983933728439226, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.282717371726454 }, "remaining_sources": [ { "model": "market", "remaining_votes": 852.2585725086306, "weight": 0.1780093144963334 } ], "share_sources": [ { "model": "v0", "weight": 0.03630604611298715, "source": "statewide raw" }, { "model": "v3", "weight": 0.06301781787712588, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "market", "weight": 0.18729675699179427, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "histgeo", "weight": 0.02760802595386354, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "latent", "weight": 0.03563066882913146, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "batchbias", "weight": 0.020512372723621893, "source": "statewide fallback" } ], "candidate_benchmarks": { "Abdul El-Sayed": { "opponent": "Haley Stevens", "expected_remaining_share_points": 47.73334889983432, "expected_final_county_share_points": 47.73334889983432, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 46.50504540834954, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 46.50504540834954, "required_final_county_share_points": 46.50504540834954, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 46.50504540834954, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": -2661.2810071686804, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": false }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 46.50504540834954, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 46.50504540834954, "required_final_county_share_points": 46.50504540834954, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 46.50504540834954, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 47.15803437089912, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 47.15803437089912, "required_final_county_share_points": 47.158034370899124, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.024044322225107804, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999973, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 47.81135093220695, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 47.81135093220695, "required_final_county_share_points": 47.81135093220695, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.003259695682198218, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.9999999999999996, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": 1.2283034914847804, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "ABOVE", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.0006942126778948905, "criticality_score": 0.0005651800900245934, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -3141.8296793209565, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -380.65517188529714, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1062.6596700312812, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Haley Stevens": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 47.983933728439226, "expected_final_county_share_points": 47.98393372843923, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 49.212237219924006, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 49.212237219924006, "required_final_county_share_points": 49.212237219924006, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 49.212237219924006, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 2756.9982897969544, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 49.212237219924006, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 49.212237219924006, "required_final_county_share_points": 49.212237219924006, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 49.212237219924006, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 49.86489235892511, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 49.86489235892511, "required_final_county_share_points": 49.86489235892511, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.07865391656842785, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.999999999999999, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 50.51720745106789, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 50.51720745106789, "required_final_county_share_points": 50.51720745106789, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.10597932088248406, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -1.2283034914847804, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.0006942126778948905, "criticality_score": 0.0005651800900245934, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 3237.54696194923, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 5998.721469384888, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 7442.036311301467, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Mallory McMorrow": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 4.282717371726454, "expected_final_county_share_points": 4.282717371726454, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 34.689732409927664, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 34.689732409927664, "required_final_county_share_points": 34.689732409927664, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 34.689732409927664, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 65229.39635225773, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 34.689732409927664, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 34.689732409927664, "required_final_county_share_points": 34.689732409927664, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 34.689732409927664, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 35.3052526910459, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 35.3052526910459, "required_final_county_share_points": 35.305252691045894, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.159018308558073, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999906, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 35.91835038075575, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 35.91835038075575, "required_final_county_share_points": 35.91835038075574, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.213613509684069, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.999999999999993, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -30.40701503820121, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "WELL BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.0006942126778948905, "criticality_score": 2.2830674994659328e-05, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 3193.8457455925172, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 5955.020253028176, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 7398.335094944755, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } } } }, { "cid": "fips:26137", "county": "Otsego", "fips": "26137", "reporting": 70.99, "current_votes": 1730, "current_candidate_votes": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 797, "Haley Stevens": 849, "Mallory McMorrow": 84 }, "current_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 46.06936416184971, "Haley Stevens": 49.07514450867052, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.855491329479769 }, "estimated_remaining_votes": 852.2585725086304, "estimated_final_votes": 2582.2585725086306, "turnout_disagreement_votes": 1.1368683772161603e-13, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 47.04144657261356, "Haley Stevens": 48.41599964874527, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.542553778641175 }, "remaining_sources": [ { "model": "v3", "remaining_votes": 852.2585725086306, "weight": 0.1342208488636769 }, { "model": "histgeo", "remaining_votes": 852.2585725086306, "weight": 0.05994207394479305 }, { "model": "latent", "remaining_votes": 852.2585725086306, "weight": 0.07672787409296966 }, { "model": "batchbias", "remaining_votes": 852.2585725086306, "weight": 0.045123489075924846 } ], "share_sources": [ { "model": "v0", "weight": 0.03630604611298715, "source": "statewide raw" }, { "model": "v1", "weight": 0.14599140026529184, "source": "county live" }, { "model": "v3", "weight": 0.15004242351696637, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "market", "weight": 0.0786646379365536, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "histgeo", "weight": 0.06573339512824654, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "latent", "weight": 0.08483492578364633, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "batchbias", "weight": 0.04883898267529022, "source": "county remaining" } ], "candidate_benchmarks": { "Abdul El-Sayed": { "opponent": "Haley Stevens", "expected_remaining_share_points": 47.04144657261356, "expected_final_county_share_points": 46.39019398756058, "current_county_share_points": 46.06936416184971, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 45.81709328779613, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 45.81709328779613, "required_final_county_share_points": 45.986103710206585, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 45.81709328779613, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": -2661.9729094959057, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": false }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 45.81709328779613, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 45.81709328779613, "required_final_county_share_points": 45.986103710206585, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 45.81709328779613, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 46.46789007478823, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 46.46789007478823, "required_final_county_share_points": 46.20089519026206, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.024044322225107804, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999973, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 47.119222755564124, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 47.119222755564124, "required_final_county_share_points": 46.41586353876754, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.003259695682198218, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.9999999999999996, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": 1.2243532848174254, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "ABOVE", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.0006942126778948904, "criticality_score": 0.0005670035654769455, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -3142.5215816481777, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -381.34707421251795, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1061.9677677040604, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Haley Stevens": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 48.41599964874527, "expected_final_county_share_points": 48.85759779844678, "current_county_share_points": 49.07514450867052, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 49.6403529335627, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 49.6403529335627, "required_final_county_share_points": 49.261688075800784, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 49.6403529335627, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 2757.4303557172643, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 49.6403529335627, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 49.6403529335627, "required_final_county_share_points": 49.261688075800784, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 49.6403529335627, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 50.29060804156812, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 50.29060804156812, "required_final_county_share_points": 49.476300778035615, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.07865391656842785, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.999999999999999, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 50.94031569429285, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 50.94031569429285, "required_final_county_share_points": 49.69073279601946, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.10597932088248406, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -1.2243532848174326, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.0006942126778948904, "criticality_score": 0.0005670035654769422, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 3237.9790278695364, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 5999.153535305195, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 7442.468377221774, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Mallory McMorrow": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 4.542553778641175, "expected_final_county_share_points": 4.752208213992636, "current_county_share_points": 4.855491329479769, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 35.23327963833058, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 35.23327963833058, "required_final_county_share_points": 14.88149367320285, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 35.23327963833058, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 65229.65618866465, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 35.23327963833058, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 35.23327963833058, "required_final_county_share_points": 14.88149367320285, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 35.23327963833058, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 35.827673560742, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 35.827673560742, "required_final_county_share_points": 15.077669734428985, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.159018308558073, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999906, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 36.41871480028105, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 36.41871480028105, "required_final_county_share_points": 15.27273926327711, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.213613509684069, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.999999999999993, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -30.690725859689405, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "WELL BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.0006942126778948904, "criticality_score": 2.2619623956392018e-05, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 3194.1055819994326, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 5955.280089435091, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 7398.59493135167, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } } } }, { "cid": "26131", "county": "26131", "fips": null, "reporting": 0.0, "current_votes": 0, "current_candidate_votes": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 0, "Haley Stevens": 0, "Mallory McMorrow": 0 }, "current_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": null, "Haley Stevens": null, "Mallory McMorrow": null }, "estimated_remaining_votes": 850.4069201533449, "estimated_final_votes": 850.4069201533449, "turnout_disagreement_votes": 0.0, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 48.931518107864335, "Haley Stevens": 45.89858485821901, "Mallory McMorrow": 5.169897033916645 }, "remaining_sources": [ { "model": "market", "remaining_votes": 850.4069201533449, "weight": 0.1780093144963334 } ], "share_sources": [ { "model": "v0", "weight": 0.03630604611298715, "source": "statewide raw" }, { "model": "v3", "weight": 0.06301781787712588, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "market", "weight": 0.18729675699179427, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "histgeo", "weight": 0.02760802595386354, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "latent", "weight": 0.03563066882913146, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "batchbias", "weight": 0.020512372723621893, "source": "statewide fallback" } ], "candidate_benchmarks": { "Abdul El-Sayed": { "opponent": "Haley Stevens", "expected_remaining_share_points": 48.931518107864335, "expected_final_county_share_points": 48.931518107864335, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 47.7147553718776, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 47.7147553718776, "required_final_county_share_points": 47.7147553718776, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 47.7147553718776, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": -2665.9813704091066, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": false }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 47.7147553718776, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 47.7147553718776, "required_final_county_share_points": 47.7147553718776, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 47.7147553718776, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.3618782205621, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.3618782205621, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.3618782205621, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.024044322225107804, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999973, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 49.008714285760206, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 49.008714285760206, "required_final_county_share_points": 49.008714285760206, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.003259695682198218, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.9999999999999996, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": 1.216762735986734, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "ABOVE", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.0006927044026113584, "criticality_score": 0.0005693011317030593, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -3147.576375863163, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -380.3897639174344, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1066.0677115585834, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Haley Stevens": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 45.89858485821901, "expected_final_county_share_points": 45.898584858219, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 47.115347594205744, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 47.115347594205744, "required_final_county_share_points": 47.11534759420575, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 47.115347594205744, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 2760.81147337519, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 47.115347594205744, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 47.115347594205744, "required_final_county_share_points": 47.11534759420575, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 47.115347594205744, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 47.762750995046424, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 47.762750995046424, "required_final_county_share_points": 47.762750995046424, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.07865391656842785, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.999999999999999, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.41042869431758, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.41042869431758, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.41042869431758, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.10597932088248406, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -1.216762735986734, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.0006927044026113584, "criticality_score": 0.0005693011317030593, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 3242.406478829246, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 6009.5930907749735, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 7456.050566250991, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Mallory McMorrow": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 5.169897033916645, "expected_final_county_share_points": 5.169897033916644, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 37.98881102713791, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 37.98881102713791, "required_final_county_share_points": 37.98881102713791, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 37.98881102713791, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 65372.30287868632, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 37.98881102713791, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 37.98881102713791, "required_final_county_share_points": 37.98881102713791, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 37.98881102713791, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 38.590358342325835, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 38.590358342325835, "required_final_county_share_points": 38.590358342325835, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.159018308558073, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999906, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 39.18729919802669, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 39.18729919802669, "required_final_county_share_points": 39.1872991980267, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.213613509684069, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.999999999999993, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -32.818913993221265, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "WELL BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.0006927044026113584, "criticality_score": 2.1106865472588037e-05, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 3201.6777910049436, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 5968.864402950671, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 7415.321878426689, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } } } }, { "cid": "fips:26131", "county": "Ontonagon", "fips": "26131", "reporting": 15.380000000000003, "current_votes": 134, "current_candidate_votes": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 65, "Haley Stevens": 59, "Mallory McMorrow": 10 }, "current_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 48.507462686567166, "Haley Stevens": 44.02985074626866, "Mallory McMorrow": 7.462686567164178 }, "estimated_remaining_votes": 850.4069201533448, "estimated_final_votes": 984.4069201533448, "turnout_disagreement_votes": 1.1368683772161603e-13, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 48.87402045235217, "Haley Stevens": 45.59675421851257, "Mallory McMorrow": 5.5292253291352775 }, "remaining_sources": [ { "model": "v3", "remaining_votes": 850.4069201533449, "weight": 0.1342208488636769 }, { "model": "histgeo", "remaining_votes": 850.4069201533449, "weight": 0.05994207394479305 }, { "model": "latent", "remaining_votes": 850.4069201533449, "weight": 0.07672787409296966 }, { "model": "batchbias", "remaining_votes": 850.4069201533449, "weight": 0.045123489075924846 } ], "share_sources": [ { "model": "v0", "weight": 0.03630604611298715, "source": "statewide raw" }, { "model": "v1", "weight": 0.14599140026529184, "source": "county live" }, { "model": "v3", "weight": 0.15004242351696637, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "market", "weight": 0.0786646379365536, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "histgeo", "weight": 0.06573339512824654, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "latent", "weight": 0.08483492578364633, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "batchbias", "weight": 0.04883898267529022, "source": "county remaining" } ], "candidate_benchmarks": { "Abdul El-Sayed": { "opponent": "Haley Stevens", "expected_remaining_share_points": 48.87402045235217, "expected_final_county_share_points": 48.82412366718172, "current_county_share_points": 48.507462686567166, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 47.662003016444935, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 47.662003016444935, "required_final_county_share_points": 47.777089159661735, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 47.662003016444935, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": -2666.038868064616, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": false }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 47.662003016444935, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 47.662003016444935, "required_final_county_share_points": 47.777089159661735, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 47.662003016444935, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.30662311888375, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.30662311888375, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.33396191701551, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.024044322225107804, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999973, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.95090988146713, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.95090988146713, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.89054670959169, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.003259695682198218, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.9999999999999996, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": 1.212017435907235, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "ABOVE", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.0006927044026113582, "criticality_score": 0.0005715300639159915, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -3147.6338735186755, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -380.4472615729466, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1066.0102139030714, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Haley Stevens": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 45.59675421851257, "expected_final_county_share_points": 45.38346329076495, "current_county_share_points": 44.02985074626866, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 46.80877165441981, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 46.80877165441981, "required_final_county_share_points": 46.43049779828494, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 46.80877165441981, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 2760.5096427354806, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 46.80877165441981, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 46.80877165441981, "required_final_county_share_points": 46.43049779828494, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 46.80877165441981, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 47.45371895750576, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 47.45371895750576, "required_final_county_share_points": 46.987653216892824, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.07865391656842785, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.999999999999999, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.09898729792121, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.09898729792121, "required_final_county_share_points": 47.545085972403804, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.10597932088248406, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -1.212017435907235, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.0006927044026113582, "criticality_score": 0.0005715300639159915, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 3242.10464818954, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 6009.291260135268, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 7455.748735611287, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Mallory McMorrow": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 5.5292253291352775, "expected_final_county_share_points": 5.79241304205334, "current_county_share_points": 7.462686567164178, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 38.9677051107853, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 38.9677051107853, "required_final_county_share_points": 34.679161015435376, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 38.9677051107853, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 65372.66220698154, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 38.9677051107853, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 38.9677051107853, "required_final_county_share_points": 34.679161015435376, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 38.9677051107853, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 39.55510443249594, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 39.55510443249594, "required_final_county_share_points": 35.18660203179708, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.159018308558073, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999906, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 40.13713644890032, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 40.13713644890032, "required_final_county_share_points": 35.68940635424536, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.213613509684069, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.999999999999993, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -33.438479781650024, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "WELL BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.0006927044026113582, "criticality_score": 2.0715786337616115e-05, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 3202.037119300163, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 5969.223731245891, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 7415.68120672191, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } } } }, { "cid": "26033", "county": "26033", "fips": null, "reporting": 0.0, "current_votes": 0, "current_candidate_votes": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 0, "Haley Stevens": 0, "Mallory McMorrow": 0 }, "current_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": null, "Haley Stevens": null, "Mallory McMorrow": null }, "estimated_remaining_votes": 767.4548380501775, "estimated_final_votes": 767.4548380501775, "turnout_disagreement_votes": 1.1368683772161603e-13, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 48.358024573335435, "Haley Stevens": 46.84461290915929, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.797362517505271 }, "remaining_sources": [ { "model": "market", "remaining_votes": 767.4548380501774, "weight": 0.1780093144963334 } ], "share_sources": [ { "model": "v0", "weight": 0.03630604611298715, "source": "statewide raw" }, { "model": "v3", "weight": 0.06301781787712588, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "market", "weight": 0.18729675699179427, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "histgeo", "weight": 0.02760802595386354, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "latent", "weight": 0.03563066882913146, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "batchbias", "weight": 0.020512372723621893, "source": "statewide fallback" } ], "candidate_benchmarks": { "Abdul El-Sayed": { "opponent": "Haley Stevens", "expected_remaining_share_points": 48.358024573335435, "expected_final_county_share_points": 48.35802457333544, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 47.136045017659214, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 47.136045017659214, "required_final_county_share_points": 47.136045017659214, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 47.136045017659214, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": -2960.0023290783697, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": false }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 47.136045017659214, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 47.136045017659214, "required_final_county_share_points": 47.136045017659214, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 47.136045017659214, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 47.785816677498715, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 47.785816677498715, "required_final_county_share_points": 47.785816677498715, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.024044322225107804, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999973, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.43558579599191, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.43558579599191, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.43558579599191, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.003259695682198218, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.9999999999999996, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": 1.2219795556762207, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "ABOVE", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.0006251352529291315, "criticality_score": 0.0005115758688640198, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -3493.6516137580165, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -427.3674137221609, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1175.4336709351724, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Haley Stevens": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 46.84461290915929, "expected_final_county_share_points": 46.84461290915929, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.0665924648355, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.0665924648355, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.0665924648355, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 48.0665924648355, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 3055.2049665608642, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.0665924648355, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.0665924648355, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.0665924648355, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 48.0665924648355, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.71636022190207, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.71636022190207, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.71636022190207, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.07865391656842785, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.999999999999999, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 49.36611762077301, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 49.36611762077301, "required_final_county_share_points": 49.36611762077302, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.10597932088248406, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -1.2219795556762136, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.0006251352529291315, "criticality_score": 0.0005115758688640227, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 3588.8542512405115, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 6655.138451276366, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 8257.9395359337, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Mallory McMorrow": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 4.797362517505271, "expected_final_county_share_points": 4.797362517505271, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 36.61545588918153, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 36.61545588918153, "required_final_county_share_points": 36.615455889181526, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 36.61545588918153, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 72437.2839169207, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 36.61545588918153, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 36.61545588918153, "required_final_county_share_points": 36.615455889181526, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 36.61545588918153, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 37.22165594786729, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 37.22165594786729, "required_final_county_share_points": 37.22165594786729, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.159018308558073, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999906, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 37.82406516876479, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 37.82406516876479, "required_final_county_share_points": 37.82406516876479, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.213613509684069, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.999999999999993, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -31.818093371676262, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "WELL BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.0006251352529291315, "criticality_score": 1.9647162563348708e-05, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 3546.8070008488576, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 6613.091200884713, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 8215.892285542046, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } } } }, { "cid": "fips:26033", "county": "Chippewa", "fips": "26033", "reporting": 77.91, "current_votes": 2769, "current_candidate_votes": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 1316, "Haley Stevens": 1287, "Mallory McMorrow": 166 }, "current_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 47.52618273745035, "Haley Stevens": 46.478873239436616, "Mallory McMorrow": 5.994944023113037 }, "estimated_remaining_votes": 767.4548380501773, "estimated_final_votes": 3536.4548380501774, "turnout_disagreement_votes": 1.1368683772161603e-13, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 48.06033288096654, "Haley Stevens": 46.57252147150088, "Mallory McMorrow": 5.3671456475325705 }, "remaining_sources": [ { "model": "v3", "remaining_votes": 767.4548380501774, "weight": 0.1342208488636769 }, { "model": "histgeo", "remaining_votes": 767.4548380501774, "weight": 0.05994207394479305 }, { "model": "latent", "remaining_votes": 767.4548380501774, "weight": 0.07672787409296966 }, { "model": "batchbias", "remaining_votes": 767.4548380501774, "weight": 0.045123489075924846 } ], "share_sources": [ { "model": "v0", "weight": 0.03630604611298715, "source": "statewide raw" }, { "model": "v1", "weight": 0.14599140026529184, "source": "county live" }, { "model": "v3", "weight": 0.15004242351696637, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "market", "weight": 0.0786646379365536, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "histgeo", "weight": 0.06573339512824654, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "latent", "weight": 0.08483492578364633, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "batchbias", "weight": 0.04883898267529022, "source": "county remaining" } ], "candidate_benchmarks": { "Abdul El-Sayed": { "opponent": "Haley Stevens", "expected_remaining_share_points": 48.06033288096654, "expected_final_county_share_points": 47.64209998527605, "current_county_share_points": 47.52618273745035, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 46.84566555000326, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 46.84566555000326, "required_final_county_share_points": 47.378502014296956, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 46.84566555000326, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": -2960.3000207707323, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": false }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 46.84566555000326, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 46.84566555000326, "required_final_county_share_points": 47.378502014296956, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 46.84566555000326, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 47.49154767234932, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 47.49154767234932, "required_final_county_share_points": 47.51866649604611, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.024044322225107804, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999973, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.13743035170098, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.13743035170098, "required_final_county_share_points": 47.65883109867243, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.003259695682198218, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.9999999999999996, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": 1.2146673309632803, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "ABOVE", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.0006251352529291313, "criticality_score": 0.0005146555250097768, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -3493.949305450387, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -427.66510541453, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1175.135979242804, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Haley Stevens": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 46.57252147150088, "expected_final_county_share_points": 46.49919607461021, "current_county_share_points": 46.478873239436616, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 47.787188802464165, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 47.787188802464165, "required_final_county_share_points": 46.762794045589324, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 47.787188802464165, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 3054.932875123199, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 47.787188802464165, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 47.787188802464165, "required_final_county_share_points": 46.762794045589324, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 47.787188802464165, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.43306396229175, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.43306396229175, "required_final_county_share_points": 46.90295701638507, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.07865391656842785, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.999999999999999, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 49.07892574297455, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 49.07892574297455, "required_final_county_share_points": 47.04311708373942, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.10597932088248406, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -1.2146673309632874, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.0006251352529291313, "criticality_score": 0.0005146555250097738, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 3588.582159802854, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 6654.866359838711, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 8257.667444496044, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Mallory McMorrow": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 5.3671456475325705, "expected_final_county_share_points": 5.858703940113726, "current_county_share_points": 5.994944023113037, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 38.12764729820396, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 38.12764729820396, "required_final_county_share_points": 12.968141679355638, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 38.12764729820396, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 72437.85370005073, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 38.12764729820396, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 38.12764729820396, "required_final_county_share_points": 12.968141679355638, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 38.12764729820396, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 38.70781627578959, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 38.70781627578959, "required_final_county_share_points": 13.09404558853159, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.159018308558073, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999906, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 39.28284468911493, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 39.28284468911493, "required_final_county_share_points": 13.218833931104108, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.213613509684069, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.999999999999993, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -32.76050165067139, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "WELL BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.0006251352529291313, "criticality_score": 1.9081980477436307e-05, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 3547.376783978886, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 6613.660984014742, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 8216.462068672077, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } } } }, { "cid": "26069", "county": "26069", "fips": null, "reporting": 0.0, "current_votes": 0, "current_candidate_votes": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 0, "Haley Stevens": 0, "Mallory McMorrow": 0 }, "current_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": null, "Haley Stevens": null, "Mallory McMorrow": null }, "estimated_remaining_votes": 613.2913002151113, "estimated_final_votes": 613.2913002151113, "turnout_disagreement_votes": 0.0, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 44.57372764172937, "Haley Stevens": 50.919833119769066, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.506439238501557 }, "remaining_sources": [ { "model": "market", "remaining_votes": 613.2913002151113, "weight": 0.1780093144963334 } ], "share_sources": [ { "model": "v0", "weight": 0.03630604611298715, "source": "statewide raw" }, { "model": "v3", "weight": 0.06301781787712588, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "market", "weight": 0.18729675699179427, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "histgeo", "weight": 0.02760802595386354, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "latent", "weight": 0.03563066882913146, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "batchbias", "weight": 0.020512372723621893, "source": "statewide fallback" } ], "candidate_benchmarks": { "Abdul El-Sayed": { "opponent": "Haley Stevens", "expected_remaining_share_points": 44.57372764172937, "expected_final_county_share_points": 44.57372764172938, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 43.35569435846791, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 43.35569435846791, "required_final_county_share_points": 43.35569435846791, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 43.35569435846791, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": -3720.0006388926363, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": false }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 43.35569435846791, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 43.35569435846791, "required_final_county_share_points": 43.35569435846791, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 43.35569435846791, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 44.00272694939124, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 44.00272694939124, "required_final_county_share_points": 44.00272694939124, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.024044322225107804, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999973, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 44.65121227002415, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 44.65121227002415, "required_final_county_share_points": 44.651212270024146, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.003259695682198218, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.9999999999999996, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": 1.2180332832614624, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "ABOVE", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.0004995603559595291, "criticality_score": 0.00041013686803523393, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -4387.79378255172, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -550.7352047943939, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1454.9633049038432, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Haley Stevens": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 50.919833119769066, "expected_final_county_share_points": 50.919833119769066, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 52.13786640303053, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 52.13786640303053, "required_final_county_share_points": 52.13786640303053, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 52.13786640303053, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 3815.4941996541347, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 52.13786640303053, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 52.13786640303053, "required_final_county_share_points": 52.13786640303053, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 52.13786640303053, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 52.78344474495713, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 52.78344474495713, "required_final_county_share_points": 52.78344474495713, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.07865391656842785, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.999999999999999, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 53.4275673428555, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 53.4275673428555, "required_final_county_share_points": 53.4275673428555, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.10597932088248406, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -1.2180332832614624, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.0004995603559595291, "criticality_score": 0.00041013686803523393, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 4483.287343313219, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 8320.345921070544, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 10326.044430768781, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Mallory McMorrow": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 4.506439238501557, "expected_final_county_share_points": 4.506439238501556, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 34.006699676915666, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 34.006699676915666, "required_final_county_share_points": 34.006699676915666, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 34.006699676915666, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 90644.40662807779, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 34.006699676915666, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 34.006699676915666, "required_final_county_share_points": 34.006699676915666, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 34.006699676915666, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 34.562275485625996, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 34.562275485625996, "required_final_county_share_points": 34.562275485625996, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.159018308558073, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999906, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 35.11414037128412, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 35.11414037128412, "required_final_county_share_points": 35.11414037128412, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.213613509684069, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.999999999999993, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -29.50026043841411, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "WELL BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.0004995603559595291, "criticality_score": 1.6934099853200643e-05, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 4436.873949431951, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 8273.932527189276, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 10279.631036887513, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } } } }, { "cid": "26085", "county": "26085", "fips": null, "reporting": 0.0, "current_votes": 0, "current_candidate_votes": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 0, "Haley Stevens": 0, "Mallory McMorrow": 0 }, "current_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": null, "Haley Stevens": null, "Mallory McMorrow": null }, "estimated_remaining_votes": 506.3753173110222, "estimated_final_votes": 506.3753173110222, "turnout_disagreement_votes": 0.0, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 43.199115891722116, "Haley Stevens": 52.26858402263711, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.5323000856407685 }, "remaining_sources": [ { "model": "market", "remaining_votes": 506.3753173110222, "weight": 0.1780093144963334 } ], "share_sources": [ { "model": "v0", "weight": 0.03630604611298715, "source": "statewide raw" }, { "model": "v3", "weight": 0.06301781787712588, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "market", "weight": 0.18729675699179427, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "histgeo", "weight": 0.02760802595386354, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "latent", "weight": 0.03563066882913146, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "batchbias", "weight": 0.020512372723621893, "source": "statewide fallback" } ], "candidate_benchmarks": { "Abdul El-Sayed": { "opponent": "Haley Stevens", "expected_remaining_share_points": 43.199115891722116, "expected_final_county_share_points": 43.199115891722116, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 41.98793525189698, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 41.98793525189698, "required_final_county_share_points": 41.98793525189698, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 41.98793525189698, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": -4516.226727114481, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": false }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 41.98793525189698, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 41.98793525189698, "required_final_county_share_points": 41.98793525189698, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 41.98793525189698, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 42.63110711518375, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 42.63110711518375, "required_final_county_share_points": 42.63110711518375, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.024044322225107804, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999973, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 43.2762245340953, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 43.2762245340953, "required_final_county_share_points": 43.2762245340953, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.003259695682198218, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.9999999999999996, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": 1.2111806398251375, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "ABOVE", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.00041247125742088065, "criticality_score": 0.00034055304705038106, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -5325.01758114788, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -677.8032251034496, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1751.3780655336166, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Haley Stevens": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 52.26858402263711, "expected_final_county_share_points": 52.268584022637114, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 53.479764662462244, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 53.479764662462244, "required_final_county_share_points": 53.479764662462244, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 53.479764662462244, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 4611.69442702884, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 53.479764662462244, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 53.479764662462244, "required_final_county_share_points": 53.479764662462244, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 53.479764662462244, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 54.12099340817025, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 54.12099340817025, "required_final_county_share_points": 54.12099340817025, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.07865391656842785, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.999999999999999, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 54.760281486804985, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 54.760281486804985, "required_final_county_share_points": 54.760281486804985, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.10597932088248406, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -1.2111806398251375, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.00041247125742088065, "criticality_score": 0.00034055304705038106, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 5420.485281062239, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 10067.699637106669, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 12496.880927743736, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Mallory McMorrow": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 4.5323000856407685, "expected_final_county_share_points": 4.532300085640768, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 33.44575257067542, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 33.44575257067542, "required_final_county_share_points": 33.44575257067542, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 33.44575257067542, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 109782.12282991371, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 33.44575257067542, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 33.44575257067542, "required_final_county_share_points": 33.44575257067542, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 33.44575257067542, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 33.9780176856445, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 33.9780176856445, "required_final_county_share_points": 33.9780176856445, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.159018308558073, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999906, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 34.506289168794844, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 34.506289168794844, "required_final_county_share_points": 34.506289168794844, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.213613509684069, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.999999999999993, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -28.913452485034647, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "WELL BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.00041247125742088065, "criticality_score": 1.4265721384686668e-05, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 5372.748997125243, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 10019.963353169673, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 12449.14464380674, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } } } }, { "cid": "fips:26085", "county": "Lake", "fips": "26085", "reporting": 61.51, "current_votes": 799, "current_candidate_votes": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 276, "Haley Stevens": 479, "Mallory McMorrow": 44 }, "current_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 34.54317897371715, "Haley Stevens": 59.94993742177722, "Mallory McMorrow": 5.506883604505632 }, "estimated_remaining_votes": 506.3753173110221, "estimated_final_votes": 1305.3753173110222, "turnout_disagreement_votes": 5.684341886080802e-14, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 39.11686072945762, "Haley Stevens": 55.90233128974575, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.980807980796619 }, "remaining_sources": [ { "model": "v3", "remaining_votes": 506.3753173110222, "weight": 0.1342208488636769 }, { "model": "histgeo", "remaining_votes": 506.3753173110222, "weight": 0.05994207394479305 }, { "model": "latent", "remaining_votes": 506.3753173110222, "weight": 0.07672787409296966 }, { "model": "batchbias", "remaining_votes": 506.3753173110222, "weight": 0.045123489075924846 } ], "share_sources": [ { "model": "v0", "weight": 0.03630604611298715, "source": "statewide raw" }, { "model": "v1", "weight": 0.14599140026529184, "source": "county live" }, { "model": "v3", "weight": 0.15004242351696637, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "market", "weight": 0.0786646379365536, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "histgeo", "weight": 0.06573339512824654, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "latent", "weight": 0.08483492578364633, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "batchbias", "weight": 0.04883898267529022, "source": "county remaining" } ], "candidate_benchmarks": { "Abdul El-Sayed": { "opponent": "Haley Stevens", "expected_remaining_share_points": 39.11686072945762, "expected_final_county_share_points": 36.31738101326045, "current_county_share_points": 34.54317897371715, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 37.94081195697267, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 37.94081195697267, "required_final_county_share_points": 35.861173467091255, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 37.94081195697267, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": -4520.308982276743, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": false }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 37.94081195697267, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 37.94081195697267, "required_final_county_share_points": 35.861173467091255, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 37.94081195697267, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 38.56471605988728, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 38.56471605988728, "required_final_county_share_points": 36.103195538364844, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.024044322225107804, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999973, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 39.19189925850463, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 39.19189925850463, "required_final_county_share_points": 36.34648962168352, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.003259695682198218, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.9999999999999996, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": 1.176048772484954, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "ABOVE", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.0004124712574208806, "criticality_score": 0.00035072631941049674, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -5329.099836310145, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -681.8854802657142, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1747.2958103713522, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Haley Stevens": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 55.90233128974575, "expected_final_county_share_points": 58.37980827020148, "current_county_share_points": 59.94993742177722, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 57.07838006223073, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 57.07838006223073, "required_final_county_share_points": 58.836015816370676, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 57.07838006223073, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 4615.328174295947, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 57.07838006223073, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 57.07838006223073, "required_final_county_share_points": 58.836015816370676, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 57.07838006223073, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 57.69902457924698, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 57.69902457924698, "required_final_county_share_points": 59.0767734437547, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.07865391656842785, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.999999999999999, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 58.31642887030091, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 58.31642887030091, "required_final_county_share_points": 59.316274137268366, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.10597932088248406, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -1.1760487724849753, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.0004124712574208806, "criticality_score": 0.0003507263194104904, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 5424.119028329349, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 10071.333384373778, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 12500.514675010847, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Mallory McMorrow": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 4.980807980796619, "expected_final_county_share_points": 5.302810716538061, "current_county_share_points": 5.506883604505632, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 32.618089802627765, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 32.618089802627765, "required_final_county_share_points": 16.023740679402863, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 32.618089802627765, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 109782.5713378089, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 32.618089802627765, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 32.618089802627765, "required_final_county_share_points": 16.023740679402863, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 32.618089802627765, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 33.06865824537867, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 33.06865824537867, "required_final_county_share_points": 16.198523161607532, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.159018308558073, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999906, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 33.51400724966242, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 33.51400724966242, "required_final_county_share_points": 16.37128094273585, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.213613509684069, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.999999999999993, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -27.637281821831145, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "WELL BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.0004124712574208806, "criticality_score": 1.4924450967354639e-05, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 5373.197505020399, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 10020.41186106483, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 12449.593151701898, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } } } }, { "cid": "26149", "county": "26149", "fips": null, "reporting": 0.0, "current_votes": 0, "current_candidate_votes": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 0, "Haley Stevens": 0, "Mallory McMorrow": 0 }, "current_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": null, "Haley Stevens": null, "Mallory McMorrow": null }, "estimated_remaining_votes": 431.73944174167264, "estimated_final_votes": 431.73944174167264, "turnout_disagreement_votes": 0.0, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 48.09341329613262, "Haley Stevens": 47.29472391385695, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.611862790010428 }, "remaining_sources": [ { "model": "market", "remaining_votes": 431.73944174167264, "weight": 0.1780093144963334 } ], "share_sources": [ { "model": "v0", "weight": 0.03630604611298715, "source": "statewide raw" }, { "model": "v3", "weight": 0.06301781787712588, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "market", "weight": 0.18729675699179427, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "histgeo", "weight": 0.02760802595386354, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "latent", "weight": 0.03563066882913146, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "batchbias", "weight": 0.020512372723621893, "source": "statewide fallback" } ], "candidate_benchmarks": { "Abdul El-Sayed": { "opponent": "Haley Stevens", "expected_remaining_share_points": 48.09341329613262, "expected_final_county_share_points": 48.093413296132624, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 46.86906565632576, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 46.86906565632576, "required_final_county_share_points": 46.86906565632576, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 46.86906565632576, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": -5299.531762422187, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": false }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 46.86906565632576, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 46.86906565632576, "required_final_county_share_points": 46.86906565632576, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 46.86906565632576, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 47.52003762443523, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 47.52003762443523, "required_final_county_share_points": 47.52003762443523, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.024044322225107804, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999973, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.171140791551124, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.171140791551124, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.171140791551124, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.003259695682198218, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.9999999999999996, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": 1.224347639806858, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "ABOVE", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.0003516761270257525, "criticality_score": 0.0002872355167697548, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -6248.140311359131, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -797.5504031005931, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 2051.569524164121, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Haley Stevens": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 47.29472391385695, "expected_final_county_share_points": 47.29472391385695, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.51907155366379, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.51907155366379, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.5190715536638, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 48.51907155366379, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 5394.919899632177, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.51907155366379, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.51907155366379, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.5190715536638, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 48.51907155366379, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 49.169905908368946, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 49.169905908368946, "required_final_county_share_points": 49.169905908368946, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.07865391656842785, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.999999999999999, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 49.820596229238916, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 49.820596229238916, "required_final_county_share_points": 49.82059622923891, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.10597932088248406, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -1.2243476398068438, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.0003516761270257525, "criticality_score": 0.0002872355167697581, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 6343.528448569121, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 11794.11835682766, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 14643.238284092375, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Mallory McMorrow": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 4.611862790010428, "expected_final_county_share_points": 4.611862790010428, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 35.91946525106776, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 35.91946525106776, "required_final_county_share_points": 35.91946525106776, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 35.91946525106776, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 128759.72863862103, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 35.91946525106776, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 35.91946525106776, "required_final_county_share_points": 35.91946525106776, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 35.91946525106776, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 36.52837432585997, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 36.52837432585997, "required_final_county_share_points": 36.52837432585997, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.159018308558073, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999906, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 37.13394601749837, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 37.13394601749837, "required_final_county_share_points": 37.13394601749837, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.213613509684069, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.999999999999993, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -31.307602461057336, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "WELL BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.0003516761270257525, "criticality_score": 1.1232930642427593e-05, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 6300.845587445275, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 11751.435495703812, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 14600.555422968528, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } } } }, { "cid": "26041", "county": "26041", "fips": null, "reporting": 0.0, "current_votes": 0, "current_candidate_votes": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 0, "Haley Stevens": 0, "Mallory McMorrow": 0 }, "current_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": null, "Haley Stevens": null, "Mallory McMorrow": null }, "estimated_remaining_votes": 396.7759728493211, "estimated_final_votes": 396.7759728493211, "turnout_disagreement_votes": 0.0, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 48.08364132586007, "Haley Stevens": 45.5273372645442, "Mallory McMorrow": 6.389021409595729 }, "remaining_sources": [ { "model": "market", "remaining_votes": 396.7759728493211, "weight": 0.1780093144963334 } ], "share_sources": [ { "model": "v0", "weight": 0.03630604611298715, "source": "statewide raw" }, { "model": "v3", "weight": 0.06301781787712588, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "market", "weight": 0.18729675699179427, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "histgeo", "weight": 0.02760802595386354, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "latent", "weight": 0.03563066882913146, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "batchbias", "weight": 0.020512372723621893, "source": "statewide fallback" } ], "candidate_benchmarks": { "Abdul El-Sayed": { "opponent": "Haley Stevens", "expected_remaining_share_points": 48.08364132586007, "expected_final_county_share_points": 48.08364132586007, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 46.882332138824054, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 46.882332138824054, "required_final_county_share_points": 46.882332138824054, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 46.882332138824054, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": -5770.768471690379, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": false }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 46.882332138824054, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 46.882332138824054, "required_final_county_share_points": 46.882332138824054, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 46.882332138824054, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 47.521200255812126, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 47.521200255812126, "required_final_county_share_points": 47.52120025581212, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.024044322225107804, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999973, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.15986680414474, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.15986680414474, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.15986680414474, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.003259695682198218, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.9999999999999996, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": 1.201309187036017, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "ABOVE", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.0003231964095418802, "criticality_score": 0.00026903682501529914, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -6802.9673783135395, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -872.077392069347, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 2228.1038966788874, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Haley Stevens": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 45.5273372645442, "expected_final_county_share_points": 45.5273372645442, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 46.72864645158021, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 46.72864645158021, "required_final_county_share_points": 46.72864645158021, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 46.72864645158021, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 5864.379450280782, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 46.72864645158021, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 46.72864645158021, "required_final_county_share_points": 46.72864645158021, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 46.72864645158021, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 47.36770989370302, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 47.36770989370302, "required_final_county_share_points": 47.36770989370302, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.07865391656842785, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.999999999999999, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.00696239847128, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.00696239847128, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.00696239847128, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.10597932088248406, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -1.20130918703601, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.0003231964095418802, "criticality_score": 0.00026903682501530076, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 6896.578356903944, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 12827.468343148135, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 15927.649631896371, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Mallory McMorrow": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 6.389021409595729, "expected_final_county_share_points": 6.38902140959573, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 40.73450052487804, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 40.73450052487804, "required_final_county_share_points": 40.73450052487804, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 40.73450052487804, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 140107.26720460394, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 40.73450052487804, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 40.73450052487804, "required_final_county_share_points": 40.73450052487804, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 40.73450052487804, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 41.279401133486175, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 41.279401133486175, "required_final_county_share_points": 41.279401133486175, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.159018308558073, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999906, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 41.81752857507337, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 41.81752857507337, "required_final_county_share_points": 41.81752857507337, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.213613509684069, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.999999999999993, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -34.34547911528231, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "WELL BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.0003231964095418802, "criticality_score": 9.410158712797553e-06, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 6857.440041048995, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 12788.330027293187, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 15888.511316041422, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } } } }, { "cid": "fips:26041", "county": "Delta", "fips": "26041", "reporting": 89.81, "current_votes": 4266, "current_candidate_votes": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 1995, "Haley Stevens": 1874, "Mallory McMorrow": 397 }, "current_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 46.76511954992968, "Haley Stevens": 43.92873886544773, "Mallory McMorrow": 9.306141584622598 }, "estimated_remaining_votes": 396.775972849321, "estimated_final_votes": 4662.775972849321, "turnout_disagreement_votes": 5.684341886080802e-14, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 47.48700038799759, "Haley Stevens": 44.73470989203269, "Mallory McMorrow": 7.778289719969729 }, "remaining_sources": [ { "model": "v3", "remaining_votes": 396.7759728493211, "weight": 0.1342208488636769 }, { "model": "histgeo", "remaining_votes": 396.7759728493211, "weight": 0.05994207394479305 }, { "model": "latent", "remaining_votes": 396.7759728493211, "weight": 0.07672787409296966 }, { "model": "batchbias", "remaining_votes": 396.7759728493211, "weight": 0.045123489075924846 } ], "share_sources": [ { "model": "v0", "weight": 0.03630604611298715, "source": "statewide raw" }, { "model": "v1", "weight": 0.14599140026529184, "source": "county live" }, { "model": "v3", "weight": 0.15004242351696637, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "market", "weight": 0.0786646379365536, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "histgeo", "weight": 0.06573339512824654, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "latent", "weight": 0.08483492578364633, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "batchbias", "weight": 0.04883898267529022, "source": "county remaining" } ], "candidate_benchmarks": { "Abdul El-Sayed": { "opponent": "Haley Stevens", "expected_remaining_share_points": 47.48700038799759, "expected_final_county_share_points": 46.826547543355375, "current_county_share_points": 46.76511954992968, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 46.303614269873, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 46.303614269873, "required_final_county_share_points": 46.725848049961456, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 46.303614269873, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": -5771.365112628237, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": false }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 46.303614269873, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 46.303614269873, "required_final_county_share_points": 46.725848049961456, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 46.303614269873, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 46.932969918797156, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 46.932969918797156, "required_final_county_share_points": 46.77940267092633, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.024044322225107804, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999973, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 47.56208340910016, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 47.56208340910016, "required_final_county_share_points": 46.83293668555648, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.003259695682198218, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.9999999999999996, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": 1.183386118124588, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "ABOVE", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.00032319640954188016, "criticality_score": 0.00027311154372342716, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -6803.564019251403, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -872.6740330072097, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 2227.5072557410253, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Haley Stevens": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 44.73470989203269, "expected_final_county_share_points": 43.99732246028987, "current_county_share_points": 43.92873886544773, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 45.91809601015729, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 45.91809601015729, "required_final_county_share_points": 44.09802195368379, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 45.91809601015729, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 5863.586822908267, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 45.91809601015729, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 45.91809601015729, "required_final_county_share_points": 44.09802195368379, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 45.91809601015729, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 46.54768771232132, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 46.54768771232132, "required_final_county_share_points": 44.15159666144985, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.07865391656842785, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.999999999999999, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 47.177509341970435, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 47.177509341970435, "required_final_county_share_points": 44.20519093474986, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.10597932088248406, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -1.1833861181246021, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.00032319640954188016, "criticality_score": 0.0002731115437234239, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 6895.785729531433, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 12826.675715775626, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 15926.857004523861, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Mallory McMorrow": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 7.778289719969729, "expected_final_county_share_points": 9.176129996354751, "current_county_share_points": 9.306141584622598, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 43.39344995198057, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 43.39344995198057, "required_final_county_share_points": 12.2067795346394, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 43.39344995198057, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 140108.6564729143, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 43.39344995198057, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 43.39344995198057, "required_final_county_share_points": 12.2067795346394, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 43.39344995198057, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 43.88688984856548, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 43.88688984856548, "required_final_county_share_points": 12.24876849060687, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.159018308558073, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999906, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 44.37228310234459, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 44.37228310234459, "required_final_county_share_points": 12.290072722593168, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.213613509684069, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.999999999999993, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -35.615160232010844, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "WELL BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.00032319640954188016, "criticality_score": 9.074686381767048e-06, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 6858.82930935937, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 12789.719295603563, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 15889.900584351799, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } } } }, { "cid": "fips:26013", "county": "Baraga", "fips": "26013", "reporting": 66.21, "current_votes": 527, "current_candidate_votes": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 227, "Haley Stevens": 251, "Mallory McMorrow": 49 }, "current_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 43.07400379506641, "Haley Stevens": 47.6280834914611, "Mallory McMorrow": 9.297912713472485 }, "estimated_remaining_votes": 336.3151388567894, "estimated_final_votes": 863.3151388567894, "turnout_disagreement_votes": 0.0, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 44.94674107975395, "Haley Stevens": 47.400994030102744, "Mallory McMorrow": 7.652264890143298 }, "remaining_sources": [ { "model": "v3", "remaining_votes": 336.3151388567894, "weight": 0.1342208488636769 }, { "model": "histgeo", "remaining_votes": 336.3151388567894, "weight": 0.05994207394479305 }, { "model": "latent", "remaining_votes": 336.3151388567894, "weight": 0.07672787409296966 }, { "model": "batchbias", "remaining_votes": 336.3151388567894, "weight": 0.045123489075924846 } ], "share_sources": [ { "model": "v0", "weight": 0.03630604611298715, "source": "statewide raw" }, { "model": "v1", "weight": 0.14599140026529184, "source": "county live" }, { "model": "v3", "weight": 0.15004242351696637, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "market", "weight": 0.0786646379365536, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "histgeo", "weight": 0.06573339512824654, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "latent", "weight": 0.08483492578364633, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "batchbias", "weight": 0.04883898267529022, "source": "county remaining" } ], "candidate_benchmarks": { "Abdul El-Sayed": { "opponent": "Haley Stevens", "expected_remaining_share_points": 44.94674107975395, "expected_final_county_share_points": 43.80355187269656, "current_county_share_points": 43.07400379506641, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 43.76323433444735, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 43.76323433444735, "required_final_county_share_points": 43.34250211523162, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 43.76323433444735, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": -6819.985702509919, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": false }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 43.76323433444735, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 43.76323433444735, "required_final_county_share_points": 43.34250211523162, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 43.76323433444735, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 44.39222735989403, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 44.39222735989403, "required_final_county_share_points": 43.587534163404875, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.024044322225107804, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999973, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 45.02194749588468, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 45.02194749588468, "required_final_county_share_points": 43.83284946652473, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.003259695682198218, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.9999999999999996, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": 1.1835067453066017, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "ABOVE", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.0002739476500366905, "criticality_score": 0.00023147113535522865, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -8037.747492067101, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -1040.6356399110903, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 2616.878711163475, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Haley Stevens": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 47.400994030102744, "expected_final_county_share_points": 47.53961797024856, "current_county_share_points": 47.6280834914611, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.584500775409346, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.584500775409346, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.0006677277135, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 48.584500775409346, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 6912.333437619776, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.584500775409346, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.584500775409346, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.0006677277135, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 48.584500775409346, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 49.21276172169905, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 49.21276172169905, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.24541458535521, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.07865391656842785, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.999999999999999, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 49.84028563522187, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 49.84028563522187, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.48987432272509, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.10597932088248406, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -1.1835067453066017, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.0002739476500366905, "criticality_score": 0.00023147113535522865, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 8130.095227176958, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 15127.207079332968, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 18784.721430407535, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Mallory McMorrow": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 7.652264890143298, "expected_final_county_share_points": 8.656830157054884, "current_county_share_points": 9.297912713472485, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 41.63898097603891, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 41.63898097603891, "required_final_county_share_points": 21.89677768635491, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 41.63898097603891, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 165295.07413694586, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 41.63898097603891, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 41.63898097603891, "required_final_county_share_points": 21.89677768635491, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 41.63898097603891, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 42.098105434570265, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 42.098105434570265, "required_final_county_share_points": 22.075635323703878, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.159018308558073, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999906, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 42.54943734201543, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 42.54943734201543, "required_final_county_share_points": 22.25145727595636, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.213613509684069, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.999999999999993, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -33.98671608589561, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "WELL BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.0002739476500366905, "criticality_score": 8.060433062857109e-06, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 8090.346498036999, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 15087.458350193008, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 18744.972701267576, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } } } }, { "cid": "26013", "county": "26013", "fips": null, "reporting": 0.0, "current_votes": 0, "current_candidate_votes": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 0, "Haley Stevens": 0, "Mallory McMorrow": 0 }, "current_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": null, "Haley Stevens": null, "Mallory McMorrow": null }, "estimated_remaining_votes": 336.3151388567894, "estimated_final_votes": 336.3151388567894, "turnout_disagreement_votes": 0.0, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 46.650172572260715, "Haley Stevens": 47.10924830144807, "Mallory McMorrow": 6.240579126291228 }, "remaining_sources": [ { "model": "market", "remaining_votes": 336.3151388567894, "weight": 0.1780093144963334 } ], "share_sources": [ { "model": "v0", "weight": 0.03630604611298715, "source": "statewide raw" }, { "model": "v3", "weight": 0.06301781787712588, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "market", "weight": 0.18729675699179427, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "histgeo", "weight": 0.02760802595386354, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "latent", "weight": 0.03563066882913146, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "batchbias", "weight": 0.020512372723621893, "source": "statewide fallback" } ], "candidate_benchmarks": { "Abdul El-Sayed": { "opponent": "Haley Stevens", "expected_remaining_share_points": 46.650172572260715, "expected_final_county_share_points": 46.650172572260715, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 45.44708452518822, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 45.44708452518822, "required_final_county_share_points": 45.44708452518822, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 45.44708452518822, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": -6818.28227101741, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": false }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 45.44708452518822, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 45.44708452518822, "required_final_county_share_points": 45.44708452518822, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 45.44708452518822, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 46.08665097214028, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 46.08665097214028, "required_final_county_share_points": 46.08665097214028, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.024044322225107804, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999973, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 46.7265780774185, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 46.7265780774185, "required_final_county_share_points": 46.7265780774185, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.003259695682198218, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.9999999999999996, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": 1.203088047072498, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "ABOVE", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.0002739476500366905, "criticality_score": 0.00022770374180284948, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -8036.044060574594, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -1038.9322084185835, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 2618.582142655982, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Haley Stevens": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 47.10924830144807, "expected_final_county_share_points": 47.109248301448076, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.31233634852057, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.31233634852057, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.31233634852057, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 48.31233634852057, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 6912.041691891119, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.31233634852057, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.31233634852057, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.31233634852057, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 48.31233634852057, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.95153610443062, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.95153610443062, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.95153610443062, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.07865391656842785, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.999999999999999, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 49.59036313950515, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 49.59036313950515, "required_final_county_share_points": 49.59036313950515, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.10597932088248406, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -1.203088047072498, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.0002739476500366905, "criticality_score": 0.00022770374180284948, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 8129.8034814483035, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 15126.915333604313, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 18784.42968467888, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Mallory McMorrow": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 6.240579126291228, "expected_final_county_share_points": 6.240579126291228, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 39.61884293840008, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 39.61884293840008, "required_final_county_share_points": 39.61884293840008, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 39.61884293840008, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 165293.662451182, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 39.61884293840008, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 39.61884293840008, "required_final_county_share_points": 39.61884293840008, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 39.61884293840008, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 40.14611042620819, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 40.14611042620819, "required_final_county_share_points": 40.14611042620818, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.159018308558073, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999906, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 40.66675409795603, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 40.66675409795603, "required_final_county_share_points": 40.66675409795603, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.213613509684069, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.999999999999993, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -33.37826381210885, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "WELL BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.0002739476500366905, "criticality_score": 8.207366673676681e-06, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 8088.934812273146, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 15086.046664429157, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 18743.56101550372, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } } } }, { "cid": "26039", "county": "26039", "fips": null, "reporting": 0.0, "current_votes": 0, "current_candidate_votes": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 0, "Haley Stevens": 0, "Mallory McMorrow": 0 }, "current_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": null, "Haley Stevens": null, "Mallory McMorrow": null }, "estimated_remaining_votes": 288.24888430558144, "estimated_final_votes": 288.24888430558144, "turnout_disagreement_votes": 0.0, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 45.054644259731226, "Haley Stevens": 49.856409673163114, "Mallory McMorrow": 5.0889460671056606 }, "remaining_sources": [ { "model": "market", "remaining_votes": 288.24888430558144, "weight": 0.1780093144963334 } ], "share_sources": [ { "model": "v0", "weight": 0.03630604611298715, "source": "statewide raw" }, { "model": "v3", "weight": 0.06301781787712588, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "market", "weight": 0.18729675699179427, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "histgeo", "weight": 0.02760802595386354, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "latent", "weight": 0.03563066882913146, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "batchbias", "weight": 0.020512372723621893, "source": "statewide fallback" } ], "candidate_benchmarks": { "Abdul El-Sayed": { "opponent": "Haley Stevens", "expected_remaining_share_points": 45.054644259731226, "expected_final_county_share_points": 45.05464425973122, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 43.84128990411485, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 43.84128990411485, "required_final_county_share_points": 43.84128990411485, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 43.84128990411485, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": -7964.6232199596325, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": false }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 43.84128990411485, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 43.84128990411485, "required_final_county_share_points": 43.84128990411485, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 43.84128990411485, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 44.485959841390354, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 44.485959841390354, "required_final_county_share_points": 44.485959841390354, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.024044322225107804, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999973, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 45.13179787023734, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 45.13179787023734, "required_final_county_share_points": 45.13179787023735, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.003259695682198218, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.9999999999999996, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": 1.2133543556163744, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "ABOVE", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.00023479497458732312, "criticality_score": 0.0001935089889449889, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -9385.449969509973, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -1221.5514350074086, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 3045.862989911232, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Haley Stevens": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 49.856409673163114, "expected_final_county_share_points": 49.856409673163114, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 51.06976402877949, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 51.06976402877949, "required_final_county_share_points": 51.06976402877949, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 51.06976402877949, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 8059.534273892528, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 51.06976402877949, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 51.06976402877949, "required_final_county_share_points": 51.06976402877949, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 51.06976402877949, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 51.713262664433465, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 51.713262664433465, "required_final_county_share_points": 51.713262664433465, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.07865391656842785, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.999999999999999, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 52.355586811943496, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 52.355586811943496, "required_final_county_share_points": 52.355586811943496, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.10597932088248406, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -1.2133543556163744, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.00023479497458732312, "criticality_score": 0.0001935089889449889, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 9480.361023442867, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 17644.259557945432, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 21911.673982864075, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Mallory McMorrow": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 5.0889460671056606, "expected_final_county_share_points": 5.08894606710566, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 35.90023644549594, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 35.90023644549594, "required_final_county_share_points": 35.90023644549594, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 35.90023644549594, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 192854.62025335888, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 35.90023644549594, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 35.90023644549594, "required_final_county_share_points": 35.90023644549594, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 35.90023644549594, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 36.44202928475702, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 36.44202928475702, "required_final_county_share_points": 36.44202928475702, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.159018308558073, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999906, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 36.97889009581678, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 36.97889009581678, "required_final_county_share_points": 36.97889009581678, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.213613509684069, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.999999999999993, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -30.811290378390282, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "WELL BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.00023479497458732312, "criticality_score": 7.62042003771443e-06, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 9435.59355983681, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 17599.492094339374, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 21866.906519258016, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } } } }, { "cid": "fips:26039", "county": "Crawford", "fips": "26039", "reporting": 81.36, "current_votes": 1135, "current_candidate_votes": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 457, "Haley Stevens": 603, "Mallory McMorrow": 75 }, "current_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 40.264317180616736, "Haley Stevens": 53.12775330396475, "Mallory McMorrow": 6.607929515418502 }, "estimated_remaining_votes": 288.2488843055814, "estimated_final_votes": 1423.2488843055814, "turnout_disagreement_votes": 5.684341886080802e-14, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 42.80005387347693, "Haley Stevens": 51.38073778693716, "Mallory McMorrow": 5.81920833958592 }, "remaining_sources": [ { "model": "v3", "remaining_votes": 288.24888430558144, "weight": 0.1342208488636769 }, { "model": "histgeo", "remaining_votes": 288.24888430558144, "weight": 0.05994207394479305 }, { "model": "latent", "remaining_votes": 288.24888430558144, "weight": 0.07672787409296966 }, { "model": "batchbias", "remaining_votes": 288.24888430558144, "weight": 0.045123489075924846 } ], "share_sources": [ { "model": "v0", "weight": 0.03630604611298715, "source": "statewide raw" }, { "model": "v1", "weight": 0.14599140026529184, "source": "county live" }, { "model": "v3", "weight": 0.15004242351696637, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "market", "weight": 0.0786646379365536, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "histgeo", "weight": 0.06573339512824654, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "latent", "weight": 0.08483492578364633, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "batchbias", "weight": 0.04883898267529022, "source": "county remaining" } ], "candidate_benchmarks": { "Abdul El-Sayed": { "opponent": "Haley Stevens", "expected_remaining_share_points": 42.80005387347693, "expected_final_county_share_points": 40.7778768824157, "current_county_share_points": 40.264317180616736, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 41.60420753215299, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 41.60420753215299, "required_final_county_share_points": 40.53568356156464, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 41.60420753215299, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": -7966.877810345888, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": false }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 41.60420753215299, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 41.60420753215299, "required_final_county_share_points": 40.53568356156464, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 41.60420753215299, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 42.239266117793015, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 42.239266117793015, "required_final_county_share_points": 40.66430121291009, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.024044322225107804, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999973, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 42.87617820330037, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 42.87617820330037, "required_final_county_share_points": 40.79329425135382, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.003259695682198218, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.9999999999999996, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": 1.1958463413239357, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "ABOVE", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.00023479497458732306, "criticality_score": 0.00019634209385745893, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -9387.70455989623, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -1223.8060253936633, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 3043.6083995249787, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Haley Stevens": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 51.38073778693716, "expected_final_county_share_points": 52.773932353039896, "current_county_share_points": 53.12775330396475, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 52.57658412826108, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 52.57658412826108, "required_final_county_share_points": 53.016125673890954, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 52.57658412826108, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 8061.058602006303, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 52.57658412826108, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 52.57658412826108, "required_final_county_share_points": 53.016125673890954, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 52.57658412826108, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 53.20979102242557, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 53.20979102242557, "required_final_county_share_points": 53.14436830438953, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.07865391656842785, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.999999999999999, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 53.8411480484796, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 53.8411480484796, "required_final_county_share_points": 53.27223628332518, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.10597932088248406, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -1.1958463413239215, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.00023479497458732306, "criticality_score": 0.00019634209385746126, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 9481.885351556646, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 17645.783886059213, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 21913.198310977856, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Mallory McMorrow": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 5.81920833958592, "expected_final_county_share_points": 6.448190764544403, "current_county_share_points": 6.607929515418502, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 36.566907984579835, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 36.566907984579835, "required_final_county_share_points": 12.67548538277062, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 36.566907984579835, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 192855.35051563143, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 36.566907984579835, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 36.566907984579835, "required_final_county_share_points": 12.67548538277062, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 36.566907984579835, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 37.04758941859295, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 37.04758941859295, "required_final_county_share_points": 12.772837215319777, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.159018308558073, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999906, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 37.52208032927257, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 37.52208032927257, "required_final_county_share_points": 12.868935288625677, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.213613509684069, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.999999999999993, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -30.747699644993915, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "WELL BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.00023479497458732306, "criticality_score": 7.636180179272384e-06, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 9436.323822109294, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 17600.22235661186, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 21867.636781530502, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } } } }, { "cid": "fips:26063", "county": "Huron", "fips": "26063", "reporting": 91.36, "current_votes": 2200, "current_candidate_votes": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 760, "Haley Stevens": 1314, "Mallory McMorrow": 126 }, "current_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 34.54545454545455, "Haley Stevens": 59.72727272727273, "Mallory McMorrow": 5.7272727272727275 }, "estimated_remaining_votes": 251.93734469721267, "estimated_final_votes": 2451.9373446972127, "turnout_disagreement_votes": 0.0, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 38.64033651005351, "Haley Stevens": 56.173005201419045, "Mallory McMorrow": 5.186658288527445 }, "remaining_sources": [ { "model": "v3", "remaining_votes": 251.93734469721267, "weight": 0.1342208488636769 }, { "model": "histgeo", "remaining_votes": 251.93734469721267, "weight": 0.05994207394479305 }, { "model": "latent", "remaining_votes": 251.93734469721267, "weight": 0.07672787409296966 }, { "model": "batchbias", "remaining_votes": 251.93734469721267, "weight": 0.045123489075924846 } ], "share_sources": [ { "model": "v0", "weight": 0.03630604611298715, "source": "statewide raw" }, { "model": "v1", "weight": 0.14599140026529184, "source": "county live" }, { "model": "v3", "weight": 0.15004242351696637, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "market", "weight": 0.0786646379365536, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "histgeo", "weight": 0.06573339512824654, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "latent", "weight": 0.08483492578364633, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "batchbias", "weight": 0.04883898267529022, "source": "county remaining" } ], "candidate_benchmarks": { "Abdul El-Sayed": { "opponent": "Haley Stevens", "expected_remaining_share_points": 38.64033651005351, "expected_final_county_share_points": 34.966204974188265, "current_county_share_points": 34.54545454545455, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 37.47070203465057, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 37.47070203465057, "required_final_county_share_points": 34.84602465855474, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 37.47070203465057, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": -9125.466361459316, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": false }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 37.47070203465057, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 37.47070203465057, "required_final_county_share_points": 34.84602465855474, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 37.47070203465057, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 38.09114178741645, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 38.09114178741645, "required_final_county_share_points": 34.90977504116321, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.024044322225107804, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999973, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 38.71498253549025, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 38.71498253549025, "required_final_county_share_points": 34.97387487712498, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.003259695682198218, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.9999999999999996, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": 1.1696344754029369, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "ABOVE", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.00020521717746899986, "criticality_score": 0.00017545411133534084, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -10751.0757995584, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -1410.5207223326024, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 3471.9529273388816, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Haley Stevens": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 56.173005201419045, "expected_final_county_share_points": 59.36207060465581, "current_county_share_points": 59.72727272727273, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 57.342639676821996, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 57.342639676821996, "required_final_county_share_points": 59.48225092028934, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 57.342639676821996, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 9220.279703170787, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 57.342639676821996, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 57.342639676821996, "required_final_county_share_points": 59.48225092028934, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 57.342639676821996, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 57.95970006739882, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 57.95970006739882, "required_final_county_share_points": 59.54565407235436, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.07865391656842785, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.999999999999999, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 58.573402549759855, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 58.573402549759855, "required_final_county_share_points": 59.608712198278546, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.10597932088248406, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -1.169634475402951, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.00020521717746899986, "criticality_score": 0.0001754541113353387, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 10845.889141269874, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 20186.444218495668, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 25068.917868167155, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Mallory McMorrow": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 5.186658288527445, "expected_final_county_share_points": 5.671724421155925, "current_county_share_points": 5.7272727272727275, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 32.85741682191905, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 32.85741682191905, "required_final_county_share_points": 8.514903691514196, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 32.85741682191905, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 220649.9755639968, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 32.85741682191905, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 32.85741682191905, "required_final_county_share_points": 8.514903691514196, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 32.85741682191905, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 33.29357348243505, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 33.29357348243505, "required_final_county_share_points": 8.559718927580507, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.159018308558073, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999906, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 33.72422195396603, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 33.72422195396603, "required_final_county_share_points": 8.60396819547068, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.213613509684069, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.999999999999993, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -27.670758533391606, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "WELL BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.00020521717746899986, "criticality_score": 7.416391466874847e-06, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 10794.902794356982, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 20135.457871582777, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 25017.931521254264, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } } } }, { "cid": "26063", "county": "26063", "fips": null, "reporting": 0.0, "current_votes": 0, "current_candidate_votes": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 0, "Haley Stevens": 0, "Mallory McMorrow": 0 }, "current_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": null, "Haley Stevens": null, "Mallory McMorrow": null }, "estimated_remaining_votes": 251.93734469721267, "estimated_final_votes": 251.93734469721267, "turnout_disagreement_votes": 0.0, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 42.41133648852992, "Haley Stevens": 52.910001196695674, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.678662314774414 }, "remaining_sources": [ { "model": "market", "remaining_votes": 251.93734469721267, "weight": 0.1780093144963334 } ], "share_sources": [ { "model": "v0", "weight": 0.03630604611298715, "source": "statewide raw" }, { "model": "v3", "weight": 0.06301781787712588, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "market", "weight": 0.18729675699179427, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "histgeo", "weight": 0.02760802595386354, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "latent", "weight": 0.03563066882913146, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "batchbias", "weight": 0.020512372723621893, "source": "statewide fallback" } ], "candidate_benchmarks": { "Abdul El-Sayed": { "opponent": "Haley Stevens", "expected_remaining_share_points": 42.41133648852992, "expected_final_county_share_points": 42.41133648852992, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 41.206269829798885, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 41.206269829798885, "required_final_county_share_points": 41.206269829798885, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 41.206269829798885, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": -9121.695361480834, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": false }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 41.206269829798885, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 41.206269829798885, "required_final_county_share_points": 41.206269829798885, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 41.206269829798885, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 41.84607868120022, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 41.84607868120022, "required_final_county_share_points": 41.84607868120022, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.024044322225107804, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999973, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 42.48808752368594, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 42.48808752368594, "required_final_county_share_points": 42.48808752368594, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.003259695682198218, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.9999999999999996, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": 1.2050666587310346, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "ABOVE", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.00020521717746899986, "criticality_score": 0.00017029529112115566, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -10747.304799579924, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -1406.7497223541259, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 3475.7239273173577, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Haley Stevens": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 52.910001196695674, "expected_final_county_share_points": 52.910001196695674, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 54.1150678554267, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 54.1150678554267, "required_final_county_share_points": 54.1150678554267, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 54.1150678554267, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 9217.016699166059, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 54.1150678554267, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 54.1150678554267, "required_final_county_share_points": 54.1150678554267, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 54.1150678554267, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 54.75268169179759, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 54.75268169179759, "required_final_county_share_points": 54.75268169179759, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.07865391656842785, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.999999999999999, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 55.388105487310035, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 55.388105487310035, "required_final_county_share_points": 55.388105487310035, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.10597932088248406, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -1.2050666587310275, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.00020521717746899986, "criticality_score": 0.00017029529112115666, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 10842.62613726515, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 20183.181214490945, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 25065.654864162432, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Mallory McMorrow": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 4.678662314774414, "expected_final_county_share_points": 4.678662314774414, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 33.48688687497584, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 33.48688687497584, "required_final_county_share_points": 33.48688687497584, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 33.48688687497584, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 220649.46756802304, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 33.48688687497584, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 33.48688687497584, "required_final_county_share_points": 33.48688687497584, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 33.48688687497584, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 34.0009717077662, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 34.0009717077662, "required_final_county_share_points": 34.0009717077662, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.159018308558073, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999906, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 34.51063677540445, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 34.51063677540445, "required_final_county_share_points": 34.51063677540445, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.213613509684069, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.999999999999993, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -28.808224560201424, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "WELL BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.00020521717746899986, "criticality_score": 7.123562128591135e-06, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 10794.39479838323, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 20134.949875609025, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 25017.423525280512, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } } } }, { "cid": "26079", "county": "26079", "fips": null, "reporting": 0.0, "current_votes": 0, "current_candidate_votes": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 0, "Haley Stevens": 0, "Mallory McMorrow": 0 }, "current_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": null, "Haley Stevens": null, "Mallory McMorrow": null }, "estimated_remaining_votes": 216.38155288811413, "estimated_final_votes": 216.38155288811413, "turnout_disagreement_votes": 0.0, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 47.96647548689527, "Haley Stevens": 47.502775719210796, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.530748793893928 }, "remaining_sources": [ { "model": "market", "remaining_votes": 216.38155288811413, "weight": 0.1780093144963334 } ], "share_sources": [ { "model": "v0", "weight": 0.03630604611298715, "source": "statewide raw" }, { "model": "v3", "weight": 0.06301781787712588, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "market", "weight": 0.18729675699179427, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "histgeo", "weight": 0.02760802595386354, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "latent", "weight": 0.03563066882913146, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "batchbias", "weight": 0.020512372723621893, "source": "statewide fallback" } ], "candidate_benchmarks": { "Abdul El-Sayed": { "opponent": "Haley Stevens", "expected_remaining_share_points": 47.96647548689527, "expected_final_county_share_points": 47.96647548689527, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 46.74114031347992, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 46.74114031347992, "required_final_county_share_points": 46.741140313479924, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 46.74114031347992, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": -10621.985177934146, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": false }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 46.74114031347992, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 46.74114031347992, "required_final_county_share_points": 46.741140313479924, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 46.74114031347992, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 47.39260980326423, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 47.39260980326423, "required_final_county_share_points": 47.392609803264236, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.024044322225107804, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999973, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.044273143240204, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.044273143240204, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.044273143240204, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.003259695682198218, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.9999999999999996, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": 1.2253351734153526, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "ABOVE", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.00017625497956019845, "criticality_score": 0.00014384225915014455, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -12514.714571373614, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -1639.3205613715727, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 4045.4405951785297, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Haley Stevens": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 47.502775719210796, "expected_final_county_share_points": 47.50277571921079, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.728110892626155, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.728110892626155, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.72811089262615, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 48.728110892626155, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 10717.454429140253, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.728110892626155, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.728110892626155, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.72811089262615, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 48.728110892626155, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 49.37938016065051, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 49.37938016065051, "required_final_county_share_points": 49.37938016065051, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.07865391656842785, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.999999999999999, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 50.030442831752964, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 50.030442831752964, "required_final_county_share_points": 50.030442831752964, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.10597932088248406, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -1.2253351734153597, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.00017625497956019845, "criticality_score": 0.0001438422591501437, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 12610.18382257972, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 23485.577832581756, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 29170.338989131862, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Mallory McMorrow": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 4.530748793893928, "expected_final_county_share_points": 4.530748793893928, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 35.60512623336344, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 35.60512623336344, "required_final_county_share_points": 35.60512623336344, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 35.60512623336344, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 256905.6459142108, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 35.60512623336344, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 35.60512623336344, "required_final_county_share_points": 35.60512623336344, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 35.60512623336344, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 36.215042364555146, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 36.215042364555146, "required_final_county_share_points": 36.215042364555146, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.159018308558073, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999906, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 36.821827322871094, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 36.821827322871094, "required_final_county_share_points": 36.821827322871094, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.213613509684069, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.999999999999993, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -31.074377439469515, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "WELL BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.00017625497956019845, "criticality_score": 5.672035744031543e-06, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 12567.211795654403, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 23442.60580565644, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 29127.366962206546, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } } } }, { "cid": "fips:26079", "county": "Kalkaska", "fips": "26079", "reporting": 89.08, "current_votes": 1468, "current_candidate_votes": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 685, "Haley Stevens": 704, "Mallory McMorrow": 79 }, "current_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 46.66212534059945, "Haley Stevens": 47.956403269754766, "Mallory McMorrow": 5.381471389645776 }, "estimated_remaining_votes": 216.3815528881141, "estimated_final_votes": 1684.3815528881141, "turnout_disagreement_votes": 2.842170943040401e-14, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 47.42419666440505, "Haley Stevens": 47.64061478778091, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.935188547814027 }, "remaining_sources": [ { "model": "v3", "remaining_votes": 216.38155288811413, "weight": 0.1342208488636769 }, { "model": "histgeo", "remaining_votes": 216.38155288811413, "weight": 0.05994207394479305 }, { "model": "latent", "remaining_votes": 216.38155288811413, "weight": 0.07672787409296966 }, { "model": "batchbias", "remaining_votes": 216.38155288811413, "weight": 0.045123489075924846 } ], "share_sources": [ { "model": "v0", "weight": 0.03630604611298715, "source": "statewide raw" }, { "model": "v1", "weight": 0.14599140026529184, "source": "county live" }, { "model": "v3", "weight": 0.15004242351696637, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "market", "weight": 0.0786646379365536, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "histgeo", "weight": 0.06573339512824654, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "latent", "weight": 0.08483492578364633, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "batchbias", "weight": 0.04883898267529022, "source": "county remaining" } ], "candidate_benchmarks": { "Abdul El-Sayed": { "opponent": "Haley Stevens", "expected_remaining_share_points": 47.42419666440505, "expected_final_county_share_points": 46.76002369158401, "current_county_share_points": 46.66212534059945, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 46.20425335822513, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 46.20425335822513, "required_final_county_share_points": 46.60330550230318, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 46.20425335822513, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": -10622.527456756627, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": false }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 46.20425335822513, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 46.20425335822513, "required_final_county_share_points": 46.60330550230318, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 46.20425335822513, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 46.85280055284729, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 46.85280055284729, "required_final_county_share_points": 46.68662014609807, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.024044322225107804, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999973, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 47.50166707060967, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 47.50166707060967, "required_final_county_share_points": 46.76997581126182, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.003259695682198218, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.9999999999999996, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": 1.2199433061799212, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "ABOVE", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.00017625497956019845, "criticality_score": 0.00014447800866428443, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -12515.256850196103, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -1639.8628401940628, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 4044.8983163560392, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Haley Stevens": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 47.64061478778091, "expected_final_county_share_points": 47.9158359754879, "current_county_share_points": 47.956403269754766, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.86055809396084, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.86055809396084, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.072554164768746, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 48.86055809396084, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 10717.592268208813, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.86055809396084, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.86055809396084, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.072554164768746, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 48.86055809396084, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 49.508779773898276, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 49.508779773898276, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.15582699180732, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.07865391656842785, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.999999999999999, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 50.156669748850845, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 50.156669748850845, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.239057206861915, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.10597932088248406, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -1.2199433061799283, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.00017625497956019845, "criticality_score": 0.0001444780086642836, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 12610.32166164829, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 23485.715671650327, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 29170.476828200433, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Mallory McMorrow": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 4.935188547814027, "expected_final_county_share_points": 5.324140332928078, "current_county_share_points": 5.381471389645776, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 36.59895272971209, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 36.59895272971209, "required_final_county_share_points": 9.391778364355307, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 36.59895272971209, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 256906.0503539647, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 36.59895272971209, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 36.59895272971209, "required_final_county_share_points": 9.391778364355307, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 36.59895272971209, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 37.184784240853055, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 37.184784240853055, "required_final_county_share_points": 9.467036331823616, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.159018308558073, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999906, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 37.766325702218, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 37.766325702218, "required_final_county_share_points": 9.541743184474196, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.213613509684069, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.999999999999993, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -31.66376418189806, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "WELL BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.00017625497956019845, "criticality_score": 5.566456929999565e-06, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 12567.616235408323, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 23443.010245410358, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 29127.771401960465, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } } } }, { "cid": "26029", "county": "26029", "fips": null, "reporting": 0.0, "current_votes": 0, "current_candidate_votes": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 0, "Haley Stevens": 0, "Mallory McMorrow": 0 }, "current_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": null, "Haley Stevens": null, "Mallory McMorrow": null }, "estimated_remaining_votes": 188.7267376707814, "estimated_final_votes": 188.7267376707814, "turnout_disagreement_votes": 0.0, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 49.2334725243315, "Haley Stevens": 46.49050030554237, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.2760271701261265 }, "remaining_sources": [ { "model": "market", "remaining_votes": 188.7267376707814, "weight": 0.1780093144963334 } ], "share_sources": [ { "model": "v0", "weight": 0.03630604611298715, "source": "statewide raw" }, { "model": "v3", "weight": 0.06301781787712588, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "market", "weight": 0.18729675699179427, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "histgeo", "weight": 0.02760802595386354, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "latent", "weight": 0.03563066882913146, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "batchbias", "weight": 0.020512372723621893, "source": "statewide fallback" } ], "candidate_benchmarks": { "Abdul El-Sayed": { "opponent": "Haley Stevens", "expected_remaining_share_points": 49.2334725243315, "expected_final_county_share_points": 49.233472524331496, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.00509747485899, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.00509747485899, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.00509747485899, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 48.00509747485899, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": -12184.225000306502, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": false }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.00509747485899, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.00509747485899, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.00509747485899, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 48.00509747485899, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.658370069574666, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.658370069574666, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.658370069574666, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.024044322225107804, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999973, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 49.31141251753594, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 49.31141251753594, "required_final_county_share_points": 49.31141251753594, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.003259695682198218, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.9999999999999996, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": 1.2283750494725112, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "ABOVE", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.00015372857273016508, "criticality_score": 0.0001251479121105392, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -14354.30291509483, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -1885.2978700366975, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 4632.472012671251, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Haley Stevens": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 46.49050030554237, "expected_final_county_share_points": 46.49050030554237, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 47.71887535501487, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 47.71887535501487, "required_final_county_share_points": 47.71887535501487, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 47.71887535501487, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 12279.948973136376, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 47.71887535501487, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 47.71887535501487, "required_final_county_share_points": 47.71887535501487, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 47.71887535501487, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.372371735927025, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.372371735927025, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.372371735927025, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.07865391656842785, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.999999999999999, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 49.02608552214882, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 49.02608552214882, "required_final_county_share_points": 49.02608552214882, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.10597932088248406, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -1.228375049472504, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.00015372857273016508, "criticality_score": 0.00012514791211053994, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 14450.026887924703, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 26919.03193298283, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 33436.80181569078, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Mallory McMorrow": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 4.2760271701261265, "expected_final_county_share_points": 4.2760271701261265, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 35.29723544216141, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 35.29723544216141, "required_final_county_share_points": 35.29723544216141, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 35.29723544216141, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 294550.04587537836, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 35.29723544216141, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 35.29723544216141, "required_final_county_share_points": 35.29723544216141, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 35.29723544216141, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 35.937432942865264, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 35.937432942865264, "required_final_county_share_points": 35.937432942865264, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.159018308558073, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999906, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 36.575603349208116, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 36.575603349208116, "required_final_county_share_points": 36.575603349208116, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.213613509684069, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.999999999999993, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -31.02120827203528, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "WELL BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.00015372857273016508, "criticality_score": 4.955595906583269e-06, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 14407.812414789287, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 26876.817459847414, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 33394.587342555365, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } } } }, { "cid": "fips:26029", "county": "Charlevoix", "fips": "26029", "reporting": 96.98, "current_votes": 3339, "current_candidate_votes": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 1651, "Haley Stevens": 1527, "Mallory McMorrow": 161 }, "current_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 49.44594189877209, "Haley Stevens": 45.73225516621743, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.821802935010482 }, "estimated_remaining_votes": 160.4771363120394, "estimated_final_votes": 3499.4771363120394, "turnout_disagreement_votes": 2.842170943040401e-14, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 49.43924981923985, "Haley Stevens": 46.031011714043466, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.5297384667166725 }, "remaining_sources": [ { "model": "v3", "remaining_votes": 160.47713631203942, "weight": 0.1342208488636769 }, { "model": "histgeo", "remaining_votes": 160.47713631203942, "weight": 0.05994207394479305 }, { "model": "latent", "remaining_votes": 160.47713631203942, "weight": 0.07672787409296966 }, { "model": "batchbias", "remaining_votes": 160.47713631203942, "weight": 0.045123489075924846 } ], "share_sources": [ { "model": "v0", "weight": 0.03630604611298715, "source": "statewide raw" }, { "model": "v1", "weight": 0.14599140026529184, "source": "county live" }, { "model": "v3", "weight": 0.15004242351696637, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "market", "weight": 0.0786646379365536, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "histgeo", "weight": 0.06573339512824654, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "latent", "weight": 0.08483492578364633, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "batchbias", "weight": 0.04883898267529022, "source": "county remaining" } ], "candidate_benchmarks": { "Abdul El-Sayed": { "opponent": "Haley Stevens", "expected_remaining_share_points": 49.43924981923985, "expected_final_county_share_points": 49.44563501699591, "current_county_share_points": 49.44594189877209, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.21446474971571, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.21446474971571, "required_final_county_share_points": 49.389469483432194, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 48.21446474971571, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": -14337.536746057434, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": false }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.21446474971571, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.21446474971571, "required_final_county_share_points": 49.389469483432194, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 48.21446474971571, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.865883311340504, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.865883311340504, "required_final_county_share_points": 49.41934188471904, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.024044322225107804, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999973, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 49.516947075800104, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 49.516947075800104, "required_final_county_share_points": 49.44919801590872, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.003259695682198218, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.9999999999999996, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": 1.2247850695241382, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "ABOVE", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.00013071767903978, "criticality_score": 0.00010672703504670196, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -16889.62444379068, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -2225.6374221217798, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 5439.4884339411155, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Haley Stevens": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 46.031011714043466, "expected_final_county_share_points": 45.74595538295899, "current_county_share_points": 45.73225516621743, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 47.255796783567604, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 47.255796783567604, "required_final_county_share_points": 45.802120916522696, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 47.255796783567604, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 14433.00700759072, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 47.255796783567604, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 47.255796783567604, "required_final_county_share_points": 45.802120916522696, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 47.255796783567604, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 47.90756396674398, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 47.90756396674398, "required_final_county_share_points": 45.83200930470875, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.07865391656842785, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.999999999999999, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.55967357082501, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.55967357082501, "required_final_county_share_points": 45.861913395448084, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.10597932088248406, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -1.2247850695241382, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.00013071767903978, "criticality_score": 0.00010672703504670196, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 16985.09470532396, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 31649.081726992852, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 39314.20758305576, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Mallory McMorrow": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 4.5297384667166725, "expected_final_county_share_points": 4.80840960004511, "current_county_share_points": 4.821802935010482, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 36.24257063965469, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 36.24257063965469, "required_final_county_share_points": 6.262679564734948, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 36.24257063965469, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 346400.68009157316, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 36.24257063965469, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 36.24257063965469, "required_final_county_share_points": 6.262679564734948, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 36.24257063965469, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 36.87652881205225, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 36.87652881205225, "required_final_county_share_points": 6.291751276903694, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.159018308558073, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999906, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 37.507680426114185, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 37.507680426114185, "required_final_county_share_points": 6.320694287433009, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.213613509684069, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.999999999999993, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -31.712832172938015, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "WELL BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.00013071767903978, "criticality_score": 4.121917535682205e-06, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 16943.593432076636, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 31607.580453745526, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 39272.706309808425, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } } } }, { "cid": "26027", "county": "26027", "fips": null, "reporting": 0.0, "current_votes": 0, "current_candidate_votes": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 0, "Haley Stevens": 0, "Mallory McMorrow": 0 }, "current_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": null, "Haley Stevens": null, "Mallory McMorrow": null }, "estimated_remaining_votes": 98.63631352640779, "estimated_final_votes": 98.63631352640779, "turnout_disagreement_votes": 1.4210854715202004e-14, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 47.325817752519605, "Haley Stevens": 46.180187564996885, "Mallory McMorrow": 6.493994682483506 }, "remaining_sources": [ { "model": "market", "remaining_votes": 98.63631352640778, "weight": 0.1780093144963334 } ], "share_sources": [ { "model": "v0", "weight": 0.03630604611298715, "source": "statewide raw" }, { "model": "v3", "weight": 0.06301781787712588, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "market", "weight": 0.18729675699179427, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "histgeo", "weight": 0.02760802595386354, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "latent", "weight": 0.03563066882913146, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "batchbias", "weight": 0.020512372723621893, "source": "statewide fallback" } ], "candidate_benchmarks": { "Abdul El-Sayed": { "opponent": "Haley Stevens", "expected_remaining_share_points": 47.325817752519605, "expected_final_county_share_points": 47.325817752519605, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 46.12560458796797, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 46.12560458796797, "required_final_county_share_points": 46.12560458796797, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 46.12560458796797, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": -23359.679426722807, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": false }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 46.12560458796797, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 46.12560458796797, "required_final_county_share_points": 46.12560458796797, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 46.12560458796797, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 46.7637742862269, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 46.7637742862269, "required_final_county_share_points": 46.7637742862269, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.024044322225107804, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999973, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 47.40200500570729, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 47.40200500570729, "required_final_county_share_points": 47.40200500570729, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.003259695682198218, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.9999999999999996, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": 1.2002131645516343, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "ABOVE", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 8.034484082605593e-05, "criticality_score": 6.694214261186719e-05, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -27511.81884381251, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -3654.1283034588605, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 8816.70929047672, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Haley Stevens": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 46.180187564996885, "expected_final_county_share_points": 46.180187564996885, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 47.38040072954852, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 47.38040072954852, "required_final_county_share_points": 47.38040072954852, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 47.38040072954852, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 23453.18543204032, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 47.38040072954852, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 47.38040072954852, "required_final_county_share_points": 47.38040072954852, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 47.38040072954852, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.01850308721042, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.01850308721042, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.01850308721042, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.07865391656842785, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.999999999999999, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.65653177631791, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.65653177631791, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.65653177631791, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.10597932088248406, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -1.2002131645516343, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 8.034484082605593e-05, "criticality_score": 6.694214261186719e-05, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 27605.32484913003, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 51463.01538948367, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 63933.85298341925, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Mallory McMorrow": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 6.493994682483506, "expected_final_county_share_points": 6.493994682483506, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 40.5703515304971, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 40.5703515304971, "required_final_county_share_points": 40.5703515304971, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 40.5703515304971, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 563578.4711985796, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 40.5703515304971, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 40.5703515304971, "required_final_county_share_points": 40.5703515304971, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 40.5703515304971, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 41.09993081549383, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 41.09993081549383, "required_final_county_share_points": 41.09993081549383, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.159018308558073, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999906, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 41.622595621184715, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 41.622595621184715, "required_final_county_share_points": 41.622595621184715, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.213613509684069, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.999999999999993, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -34.076356848013596, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "WELL BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 8.034484082605593e-05, "criticality_score": 2.3577884568003476e-06, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 27565.638656247516, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 51423.32919660115, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 63894.166790536736, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } } } }, { "cid": "fips:26097", "county": "Mackinac", "fips": "26097", "reporting": 93.9, "current_votes": 1446, "current_candidate_votes": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 654, "Haley Stevens": 706, "Mallory McMorrow": 86 }, "current_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 45.22821576763486, "Haley Stevens": 48.82434301521438, "Mallory McMorrow": 5.94744121715076 }, "estimated_remaining_votes": 87.37128851475677, "estimated_final_votes": 1533.3712885147568, "turnout_disagreement_votes": 0.0, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 46.381354188279545, "Haley Stevens": 48.27358844789876, "Mallory McMorrow": 5.34505736382171 }, "remaining_sources": [ { "model": "v3", "remaining_votes": 87.37128851475677, "weight": 0.1342208488636769 }, { "model": "histgeo", "remaining_votes": 87.37128851475677, "weight": 0.05994207394479305 }, { "model": "latent", "remaining_votes": 87.37128851475677, "weight": 0.07672787409296966 }, { "model": "batchbias", "remaining_votes": 87.37128851475677, "weight": 0.045123489075924846 } ], "share_sources": [ { "model": "v0", "weight": 0.03630604611298715, "source": "statewide raw" }, { "model": "v1", "weight": 0.14599140026529184, "source": "county live" }, { "model": "v3", "weight": 0.15004242351696637, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "market", "weight": 0.0786646379365536, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "histgeo", "weight": 0.06573339512824654, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "latent", "weight": 0.08483492578364633, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "batchbias", "weight": 0.04883898267529022, "source": "county remaining" } ], "candidate_benchmarks": { "Abdul El-Sayed": { "opponent": "Haley Stevens", "expected_remaining_share_points": 46.381354188279545, "expected_final_county_share_points": 45.29392143879372, "current_county_share_points": 45.22821576763486, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 45.16770155145009, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 45.16770155145009, "required_final_county_share_points": 45.224767675785785, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 45.16770155145009, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": -26378.55465460591, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": false }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 45.16770155145009, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 45.16770155145009, "required_final_county_share_points": 45.224767675785785, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 45.16770155145009, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 45.81276712987843, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 45.81276712987843, "required_final_county_share_points": 45.26152342515057, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.024044322225107804, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999973, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 46.45846238284563, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 46.45846238284563, "required_final_county_share_points": 45.29831505328536, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.003259695682198218, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.9999999999999996, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": 1.2136526368294582, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "ABOVE", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 7.116884256431714e-05, "criticality_score": 5.864020758875321e-05, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -31066.041039566815, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -4132.311617035968, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 9946.42600676119, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Haley Stevens": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 48.27358844789876, "expected_final_county_share_points": 48.792961094500086, "current_county_share_points": 48.82434301521438, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 49.487241084728225, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 49.487241084728225, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.86211485750802, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 49.487241084728225, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 26473.20959724209, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 49.487241084728225, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 49.487241084728225, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.86211485750802, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 49.487241084728225, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 50.131671521172386, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 50.131671521172386, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.8988344165685, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.07865391656842785, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.999999999999999, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 50.77546136018641, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 50.77546136018641, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.93551747447409, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.10597932088248406, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -1.2136526368294653, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 7.116884256431714e-05, "criticality_score": 5.864020758875286e-05, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 31160.695982202993, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 58094.42540473383, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 72173.16302853101, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Mallory McMorrow": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 5.34505736382171, "expected_final_county_share_points": 5.913117466706195, "current_county_share_points": 5.94744121715076, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 37.243766469578084, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 37.243766469578084, "required_final_county_share_points": 7.730701594831414, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 37.243766469578084, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 636240.23621148, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 37.243766469578084, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 37.243766469578084, "required_final_county_share_points": 7.730701594831414, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 37.243766469578084, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 37.797670391809646, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 37.797670391809646, "required_final_county_share_points": 7.762262965362635, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.159018308558073, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999906, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 38.34629608980335, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 38.34629608980335, "required_final_county_share_points": 7.793523583391063, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.213613509684069, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.999999999999993, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -31.898709105756375, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "WELL BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 7.116884256431714e-05, "criticality_score": 2.2310884847523235e-06, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 31117.767451118918, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 58051.496873649754, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 72130.23449744693, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } } } }, { "cid": "26097", "county": "26097", "fips": null, "reporting": 0.0, "current_votes": 0, "current_candidate_votes": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 0, "Haley Stevens": 0, "Mallory McMorrow": 0 }, "current_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": null, "Haley Stevens": null, "Mallory McMorrow": null }, "estimated_remaining_votes": 85.61068472148054, "estimated_final_votes": 85.61068472148054, "turnout_disagreement_votes": 0.0, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 47.313860940306704, "Haley Stevens": 47.89780070134983, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.78833835834347 }, "remaining_sources": [ { "model": "market", "remaining_votes": 85.61068472148054, "weight": 0.1780093144963334 } ], "share_sources": [ { "model": "v0", "weight": 0.03630604611298715, "source": "statewide raw" }, { "model": "v3", "weight": 0.06301781787712588, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "market", "weight": 0.18729675699179427, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "histgeo", "weight": 0.02760802595386354, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "latent", "weight": 0.03563066882913146, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "batchbias", "weight": 0.020512372723621893, "source": "statewide fallback" } ], "candidate_benchmarks": { "Abdul El-Sayed": { "opponent": "Haley Stevens", "expected_remaining_share_points": 47.313860940306704, "expected_final_county_share_points": 47.31386094030671, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 46.09219368951438, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 46.09219368951438, "required_final_county_share_points": 46.09219368951438, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 46.09219368951438, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": -26921.05714928536, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": false }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 46.09219368951438, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 46.09219368951438, "required_final_county_share_points": 46.09219368951438, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 46.09219368951438, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 46.74162726088431, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 46.74162726088431, "required_final_county_share_points": 46.741627260884314, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.024044322225107804, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999973, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 47.39144898923758, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 47.39144898923758, "required_final_county_share_points": 47.39144898923758, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.003259695682198218, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.9999999999999996, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": 1.221667250792322, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "ABOVE", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 6.973473147002268e-05, "criticality_score": 5.708160828965142e-05, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -31704.94279021693, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -4217.314910470668, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 10150.955251766505, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Haley Stevens": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 47.89780070134983, "expected_final_county_share_points": 47.89780070134984, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 49.119467952142145, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 49.119467952142145, "required_final_county_share_points": 49.119467952142145, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 49.119467952142145, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 27016.268810927017, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 49.119467952142145, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 49.119467952142145, "required_final_county_share_points": 49.119467952142145, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 49.119467952142145, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 49.7685072792353, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 49.7685072792353, "required_final_county_share_points": 49.76850727923531, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.07865391656842785, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.999999999999999, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 50.417146278526594, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 50.417146278526594, "required_final_county_share_points": 50.417146278526594, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.10597932088248406, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -1.221667250792315, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 6.973473147002268e-05, "criticality_score": 5.7081608289651754e-05, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 31800.154451858587, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 59287.782331604845, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 73656.05249384203, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Mallory McMorrow": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 4.78833835834347, "expected_final_county_share_points": 4.78833835834347, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 36.11188614129752, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 36.11188614129752, "required_final_county_share_points": 36.11188614129752, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 36.11188614129752, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 649323.9991241287, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 36.11188614129752, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 36.11188614129752, "required_final_county_share_points": 36.11188614129752, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 36.11188614129752, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 36.70143227595383, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 36.70143227595383, "required_final_county_share_points": 36.70143227595383, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.159018308558073, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999906, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 37.28702714416342, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 37.28702714416342, "required_final_county_share_points": 37.28702714416342, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.213613509684069, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.999999999999993, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -31.323547782954048, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "WELL BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 6.973473147002268e-05, "criticality_score": 2.2262718116487304e-06, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 31757.04498951558, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 59244.67286926184, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 73612.94303149902, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } } } }, { "cid": "26107", "county": "26107", "fips": null, "reporting": 0.0, "current_votes": 0, "current_candidate_votes": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 0, "Haley Stevens": 0, "Mallory McMorrow": 0 }, "current_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": null, "Haley Stevens": null, "Mallory McMorrow": null }, "estimated_remaining_votes": 78.31944933675004, "estimated_final_votes": 78.31944933675004, "turnout_disagreement_votes": 0.0, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 47.0912695449292, "Haley Stevens": 48.78440505337972, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.12432540169107 }, "remaining_sources": [ { "model": "market", "remaining_votes": 78.31944933675004, "weight": 0.1780093144963334 } ], "share_sources": [ { "model": "v0", "weight": 0.03630604611298715, "source": "statewide raw" }, { "model": "v3", "weight": 0.06301781787712588, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "market", "weight": 0.18729675699179427, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "histgeo", "weight": 0.02760802595386354, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "latent", "weight": 0.03563066882913146, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "batchbias", "weight": 0.020512372723621893, "source": "statewide fallback" } ], "candidate_benchmarks": { "Abdul El-Sayed": { "opponent": "Haley Stevens", "expected_remaining_share_points": 47.0912695449292, "expected_final_county_share_points": 47.091269544929204, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 45.86178338426582, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 45.86178338426582, "required_final_county_share_points": 45.86178338426582, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 45.86178338426582, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": -29431.929938600668, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": false }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 45.86178338426582, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 45.86178338426582, "required_final_county_share_points": 45.86178338426582, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 45.86178338426582, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 46.51528291014124, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 46.51528291014124, "required_final_county_share_points": 46.51528291014124, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.024044322225107804, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999973, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 47.1693787381431, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 47.1693787381431, "required_final_county_share_points": 47.16937873814311, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.003259695682198218, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.9999999999999996, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": 1.2294861606633773, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "ABOVE", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 6.379560899608066e-05, "criticality_score": 5.18880252882711e-05, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -34661.17668149422, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -4614.557813732066, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 11091.342282211921, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Haley Stevens": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 48.78440505337972, "expected_final_county_share_points": 48.78440505337972, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 50.01389121404309, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 50.01389121404309, "required_final_county_share_points": 50.01389121404309, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 50.01389121404309, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 29527.80561319898, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 50.01389121404309, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 50.01389121404309, "required_final_county_share_points": 50.01389121404309, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 50.01389121404309, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 50.666788780631386, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 50.666788780631386, "required_final_county_share_points": 50.666788780631386, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.07865391656842785, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.999999999999999, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 51.31907874162016, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 51.31907874162016, "required_final_county_share_points": 51.31907874162016, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.10597932088248406, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -1.2294861606633702, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 6.379560899608066e-05, "criticality_score": 5.18880252882714e-05, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 34757.05235609253, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 64803.67122385468, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 80509.57131979866, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Mallory McMorrow": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 4.12432540169107, "expected_final_county_share_points": 4.1243254016910695, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 33.88012237605316, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 33.88012237605316, "required_final_county_share_points": 33.88012237605316, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 33.88012237605316, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 709772.4220973465, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 33.88012237605316, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 33.88012237605316, "required_final_county_share_points": 33.88012237605316, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 33.88012237605316, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 34.49117028649661, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 34.49117028649661, "required_final_county_share_points": 34.49117028649661, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.159018308558073, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999906, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 35.100161871624735, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 35.100161871624735, "required_final_county_share_points": 35.100161871624735, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.213613509684069, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.999999999999993, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -29.755796974362088, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "WELL BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 6.379560899608066e-05, "criticality_score": 2.1439724518569486e-06, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 34712.392276440834, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 64759.01114420299, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 80464.91124014698, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } } } }, { "cid": "fips:26027", "county": "Cass", "fips": "26027", "reporting": 99.0, "current_votes": 3505, "current_candidate_votes": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 1579, "Haley Stevens": 1592, "Mallory McMorrow": 334 }, "current_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 45.049928673323826, "Haley Stevens": 45.42082738944365, "Mallory McMorrow": 9.529243937232525 }, "estimated_remaining_votes": 77.55888915228525, "estimated_final_votes": 3582.5588891522852, "turnout_disagreement_votes": 0.0, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 46.24712406275712, "Haley Stevens": 45.814655588728456, "Mallory McMorrow": 7.938220348514428 }, "remaining_sources": [ { "model": "v3", "remaining_votes": 77.55888915228525, "weight": 0.1342208488636769 }, { "model": "histgeo", "remaining_votes": 77.55888915228525, "weight": 0.05994207394479305 }, { "model": "latent", "remaining_votes": 77.55888915228525, "weight": 0.07672787409296966 }, { "model": "batchbias", "remaining_votes": 77.55888915228525, "weight": 0.045123489075924846 } ], "share_sources": [ { "model": "v0", "weight": 0.03630604611298715, "source": "statewide raw" }, { "model": "v1", "weight": 0.14599140026529184, "source": "county live" }, { "model": "v3", "weight": 0.15004242351696637, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "market", "weight": 0.0786646379365536, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "histgeo", "weight": 0.06573339512824654, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "latent", "weight": 0.08483492578364633, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "batchbias", "weight": 0.04883898267529022, "source": "county remaining" } ], "candidate_benchmarks": { "Abdul El-Sayed": { "opponent": "Haley Stevens", "expected_remaining_share_points": 46.24712406275712, "expected_final_county_share_points": 45.075846780290284, "current_county_share_points": 45.049928673323826, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 45.06552637128383, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 45.06552637128383, "required_final_county_share_points": 45.05026634819939, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 45.06552637128383, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": -29721.852100193802, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": false }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 45.06552637128383, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 45.06552637128383, "required_final_county_share_points": 45.05026634819939, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 45.06552637128383, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 45.6937409089055, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 45.6937409089055, "required_final_county_share_points": 45.06386657730791, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.024044322225107804, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999973, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 46.32214511278043, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 46.32214511278043, "required_final_county_share_points": 45.07747091250496, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.003259695682198218, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.9999999999999996, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": 1.1815976914732929, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "ABOVE", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 6.31760898273812e-05, "criticality_score": 5.3466666601734084e-05, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -35002.37803120948, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -4661.115155025047, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 11198.800585092264, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Haley Stevens": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 45.814655588728456, "expected_final_county_share_points": 45.429353384018604, "current_county_share_points": 45.42082738944365, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 46.99625328020174, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 46.99625328020174, "required_final_county_share_points": 45.4549338161095, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 46.99625328020174, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 29813.91387984529, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 46.99625328020174, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 46.99625328020174, "required_final_county_share_points": 45.4549338161095, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 46.99625328020174, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 47.624272009941315, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 47.624272009941315, "required_final_county_share_points": 45.46852980616926, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.07865391656842785, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.999999999999999, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.25208878681081, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.25208878681081, "required_final_county_share_points": 45.482121424147294, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.10597932088248406, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -1.1815976914732857, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 6.31760898273812e-05, "criticality_score": 5.346666660173441e-05, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 35094.43981086097, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 65435.70268704539, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 81295.6184271627, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Mallory McMorrow": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 7.938220348514428, "expected_final_county_share_points": 9.494799835691111, "current_county_share_points": 9.529243937232525, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 42.967592307350436, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 42.967592307350436, "required_final_county_share_points": 10.253151410889473, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 42.967592307350436, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 716736.3860586612, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 42.967592307350436, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 42.967592307350436, "required_final_county_share_points": 10.253151410889473, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 42.967592307350436, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 43.43827742302718, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 43.43827742302718, "required_final_county_share_points": 10.263341282386893, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.159018308558073, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999906, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 43.90090853299885, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 43.90090853299885, "required_final_county_share_points": 10.273356792553479, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.213613509684069, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.999999999999993, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -35.02937195883601, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "WELL BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 6.31760898273812e-05, "criticality_score": 1.8035176280528576e-06, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 35056.56337562075, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 65397.82625180518, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 81257.74199192249, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } } } }, { "cid": "26113", "county": "26113", "fips": null, "reporting": 0.0, "current_votes": 0, "current_candidate_votes": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 0, "Haley Stevens": 0, "Mallory McMorrow": 0 }, "current_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": null, "Haley Stevens": null, "Mallory McMorrow": null }, "estimated_remaining_votes": 70.66382028501641, "estimated_final_votes": 70.66382028501641, "turnout_disagreement_votes": 0.0, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 43.718092967741406, "Haley Stevens": 51.20805675302659, "Mallory McMorrow": 5.073850279232022 }, "remaining_sources": [ { "model": "market", "remaining_votes": 70.66382028501641, "weight": 0.1780093144963334 } ], "share_sources": [ { "model": "v0", "weight": 0.03630604611298715, "source": "statewide raw" }, { "model": "v3", "weight": 0.06301781787712588, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "market", "weight": 0.18729675699179427, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "histgeo", "weight": 0.02760802595386354, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "latent", "weight": 0.03563066882913146, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "batchbias", "weight": 0.020512372723621893, "source": "statewide fallback" } ], "candidate_benchmarks": { "Abdul El-Sayed": { "opponent": "Haley Stevens", "expected_remaining_share_points": 43.718092967741406, "expected_final_county_share_points": 43.718092967741406, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 42.509882863161586, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 42.509882863161586, "required_final_county_share_points": 42.509882863161586, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 42.509882863161586, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": -32629.023045228183, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": false }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 42.509882863161586, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 42.509882863161586, "required_final_county_share_points": 42.509882863161586, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 42.509882863161586, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 43.15160132720069, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 43.15160132720069, "required_final_county_share_points": 43.15160132720069, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.024044322225107804, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999973, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 43.79497877265758, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 43.79497877265758, "required_final_county_share_points": 43.79497877265758, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.003259695682198218, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.9999999999999996, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": 1.2082101045798197, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "ABOVE", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 5.755966732719225e-05, "criticality_score": 4.764044524127683e-05, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -38424.799776482236, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -5122.968165018729, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 12284.489313092865, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Haley Stevens": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 51.20805675302659, "expected_final_county_share_points": 51.20805675302659, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 52.416266857606416, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 52.416266857606416, "required_final_county_share_points": 52.416266857606416, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 52.416266857606416, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 32723.94919494895, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 52.416266857606416, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 52.416266857606416, "required_final_county_share_points": 52.416266857606416, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 52.416266857606416, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 53.05632640895127, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 53.05632640895127, "required_final_county_share_points": 53.05632640895127, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.07865391656842785, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.999999999999999, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 53.69472713754651, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 53.69472713754651, "required_final_county_share_points": 53.69472713754651, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.10597932088248406, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -1.2082101045798268, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 5.755966732719225e-05, "criticality_score": 4.764044524127655e-05, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 38519.725926203006, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 71821.55753766651, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 89229.0150157781, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Mallory McMorrow": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 5.073850279232022, "expected_final_county_share_points": 5.073850279232021, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 35.200272937103406, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 35.200272937103406, "required_final_county_share_points": 35.200272937103406, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 35.200272937103406, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 786668.7726705396, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 35.200272937103406, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 35.200272937103406, "required_final_county_share_points": 35.200272937103406, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 35.200272937103406, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 35.721087669136104, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 35.721087669136104, "required_final_county_share_points": 35.721087669136104, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.159018308558073, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999906, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 36.23686195986374, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 36.23686195986374, "required_final_county_share_points": 36.23686195986374, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.213613509684069, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.999999999999993, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -30.126422657871384, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "WELL BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 5.755966732719225e-05, "criticality_score": 1.9106041225294023e-06, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 38473.59171972921, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 71775.42333119272, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 89182.88080930432, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } } } }, { "cid": "fips:26113", "county": "Missaukee", "fips": "26113", "reporting": 93.37, "current_votes": 943, "current_candidate_votes": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 352, "Haley Stevens": 529, "Mallory McMorrow": 62 }, "current_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 37.32767762460234, "Haley Stevens": 56.09756097560976, "Mallory McMorrow": 6.574761399787911 }, "estimated_remaining_votes": 70.12569231661234, "estimated_final_votes": 1013.1256923166123, "turnout_disagreement_votes": 0.0, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 40.657502642669314, "Haley Stevens": 53.542604317253236, "Mallory McMorrow": 5.799893040077455 }, "remaining_sources": [ { "model": "v3", "remaining_votes": 70.12569231661234, "weight": 0.1342208488636769 }, { "model": "histgeo", "remaining_votes": 70.12569231661234, "weight": 0.05994207394479305 }, { "model": "latent", "remaining_votes": 70.12569231661234, "weight": 0.07672787409296966 }, { "model": "batchbias", "remaining_votes": 70.12569231661234, "weight": 0.045123489075924846 } ], "share_sources": [ { "model": "v0", "weight": 0.03630604611298715, "source": "statewide raw" }, { "model": "v1", "weight": 0.14599140026529184, "source": "county live" }, { "model": "v3", "weight": 0.15004242351696637, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "market", "weight": 0.0786646379365536, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "histgeo", "weight": 0.06573339512824654, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "latent", "weight": 0.08483492578364633, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "batchbias", "weight": 0.04883898267529022, "source": "county remaining" } ], "candidate_benchmarks": { "Abdul El-Sayed": { "opponent": "Haley Stevens", "expected_remaining_share_points": 40.657502642669314, "expected_final_county_share_points": 37.55815868579345, "current_county_share_points": 37.32767762460234, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 39.475348273945855, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 39.475348273945855, "required_final_county_share_points": 37.47633330700725, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 39.475348273945855, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": -32882.80651942168, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": false }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 39.475348273945855, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 39.475348273945855, "required_final_county_share_points": 37.47633330700725, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 39.475348273945855, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 40.10279153864242, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 40.10279153864242, "required_final_county_share_points": 37.51976315353067, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.024044322225107804, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999973, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 40.732849006514385, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 40.732849006514385, "required_final_county_share_points": 37.56337394779722, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.003259695682198218, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.9999999999999996, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": 1.1821543687234595, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "ABOVE", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 5.7121331744487225e-05, "criticality_score": 4.831968925189463e-05, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -38723.05866980786, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -5165.676683051074, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 12375.36150447417, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Haley Stevens": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 53.542604317253236, "expected_final_county_share_points": 55.920714108666225, "current_county_share_points": 56.09756097560976, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 54.724758685976695, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 54.724758685976695, "required_final_county_share_points": 56.00253948745243, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 54.724758685976695, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 32977.006626381604, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 54.724758685976695, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 54.724758685976695, "required_final_county_share_points": 56.00253948745243, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 54.724758685976695, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 55.34959779983686, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 55.34959779983686, "required_final_county_share_points": 56.04578908202716, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.07865391656842785, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.999999999999999, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 55.97184277241885, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 55.97184277241885, "required_final_county_share_points": 56.0888591174865, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.10597932088248406, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -1.1821543687234595, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 5.7121331744487225e-05, "criticality_score": 4.831968925189463e-05, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 38817.25877676779, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 72374.64076352456, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 89915.67895104982, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Mallory McMorrow": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 5.799893040077455, "expected_final_county_share_points": 6.5211272055403215, "current_county_share_points": 6.574761399787911, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 35.35192401567291, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 35.35192401567291, "required_final_county_share_points": 8.566635129425812, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 35.35192401567291, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 792706.1697831858, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 35.35192401567291, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 35.35192401567291, "required_final_county_share_points": 8.566635129425812, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 35.35192401567291, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 35.79984056686932, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 35.79984056686932, "required_final_county_share_points": 8.59763864507143, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.159018308558073, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999906, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 36.24157679608795, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 36.24157679608795, "required_final_county_share_points": 8.628214376325916, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.213613509684069, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.999999999999993, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -29.55203097559545, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "WELL BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 5.7121331744487225e-05, "criticality_score": 1.932907142377421e-06, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 38769.516065490614, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 72326.89805224739, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 89867.93623977265, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } } } }, { "cid": "fips:26107", "county": "Mecosta", "fips": "26107", "reporting": 98.54, "current_votes": 3431, "current_candidate_votes": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 1535, "Haley Stevens": 1742, "Mallory McMorrow": 154 }, "current_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 44.7391431069659, "Haley Stevens": 50.77236957155349, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.488487321480618 }, "estimated_remaining_votes": 69.15789552562957, "estimated_final_votes": 3500.1578955256296, "turnout_disagreement_votes": 1.4210854715202004e-14, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 46.03660360279086, "Haley Stevens": 49.67528155502004, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.288114842189099 }, "remaining_sources": [ { "model": "v3", "remaining_votes": 69.15789552562956, "weight": 0.1342208488636769 }, { "model": "histgeo", "remaining_votes": 69.15789552562956, "weight": 0.05994207394479305 }, { "model": "latent", "remaining_votes": 69.15789552562956, "weight": 0.07672787409296966 }, { "model": "batchbias", "remaining_votes": 69.15789552562956, "weight": 0.045123489075924846 } ], "share_sources": [ { "model": "v0", "weight": 0.03630604611298715, "source": "statewide raw" }, { "model": "v1", "weight": 0.14599140026529184, "source": "county live" }, { "model": "v3", "weight": 0.15004242351696637, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "market", "weight": 0.0786646379365536, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "histgeo", "weight": 0.06573339512824654, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "latent", "weight": 0.08483492578364633, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "batchbias", "weight": 0.04883898267529022, "source": "county remaining" } ], "candidate_benchmarks": { "Abdul El-Sayed": { "opponent": "Haley Stevens", "expected_remaining_share_points": 46.03660360279086, "expected_final_county_share_points": 44.764778989716675, "current_county_share_points": 44.7391431069659, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 44.81124939760961, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 44.81124939760961, "required_final_county_share_points": 44.74056781963999, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 44.81124939760961, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": -33338.15894573573, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": false }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 44.81124939760961, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 44.81124939760961, "required_final_county_share_points": 44.74056781963999, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 44.81124939760961, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 45.462393377679874, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 45.462393377679874, "required_final_county_share_points": 44.75343345275998, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.024044322225107804, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999973, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 46.11449353500543, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 46.11449353500543, "required_final_county_share_points": 44.76631797851528, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.003259695682198218, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.9999999999999996, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": 1.2253542051812545, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "ABOVE", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 5.633300667085539e-05, "criticality_score": 4.597283498327131e-05, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -39260.139686136325, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -5233.155113098833, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 12553.352667440588, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Haley Stevens": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 49.67528155502004, "expected_final_county_share_points": 50.75069274990871, "current_county_share_points": 50.77236957155349, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 50.9006357602013, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 50.9006357602013, "required_final_county_share_points": 50.77490391998539, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 50.9006357602013, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 33433.870830893546, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 50.9006357602013, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 50.9006357602013, "required_final_county_share_points": 50.77490391998539, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 50.9006357602013, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 51.55081922102555, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 51.55081922102555, "required_final_county_share_points": 50.78775057467879, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.07865391656842785, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.999999999999999, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 52.20003784099687, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 52.20003784099687, "required_final_county_share_points": 50.8005781655571, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.10597932088248406, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -1.2253542051812545, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 5.633300667085539e-05, "criticality_score": 4.597283498327131e-05, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 39355.85157129414, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 73382.83614433161, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 91169.34392487103, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Mallory McMorrow": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 4.288114842189099, "expected_final_county_share_points": 4.484528260374612, "current_county_share_points": 4.488487321480618, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 33.977813559867826, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 33.977813559867826, "required_final_county_share_points": 5.0711523908829585, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 33.977813559867826, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 803797.7207472778, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 33.977813559867826, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 33.977813559867826, "required_final_county_share_points": 5.0711523908829585, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 33.977813559867826, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 34.56547966118618, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 34.56547966118618, "required_final_county_share_points": 5.082763795868682, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.159018308558073, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999906, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 35.150318703529805, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 35.150318703529805, "required_final_county_share_points": 5.094319342388859, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.213613509684069, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.999999999999993, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -29.689698717678727, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "WELL BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 5.633300667085539e-05, "criticality_score": 1.8973923314793324e-06, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 39310.464404581304, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 73337.44897761878, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 91123.95675815821, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } } } }, { "cid": "fips:26001", "county": "Alcona", "fips": "26001", "reporting": 96.49, "current_votes": 1237, "current_candidate_votes": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 518, "Haley Stevens": 618, "Mallory McMorrow": 101 }, "current_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 41.875505254648345, "Haley Stevens": 49.95957962813258, "Mallory McMorrow": 8.164915117219078 }, "estimated_remaining_votes": 44.60802981852043, "estimated_final_votes": 1281.6080298185204, "turnout_disagreement_votes": 7.105427357601002e-15, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 43.94145388169189, "Haley Stevens": 49.10657576191287, "Mallory McMorrow": 6.95197035639523 }, "remaining_sources": [ { "model": "v3", "remaining_votes": 44.608029818520436, "weight": 0.1342208488636769 }, { "model": "histgeo", "remaining_votes": 44.608029818520436, "weight": 0.05994207394479305 }, { "model": "latent", "remaining_votes": 44.608029818520436, "weight": 0.07672787409296966 }, { "model": "batchbias", "remaining_votes": 44.608029818520436, "weight": 0.045123489075924846 } ], "share_sources": [ { "model": "v0", "weight": 0.03630604611298715, "source": "statewide raw" }, { "model": "v1", "weight": 0.14599140026529184, "source": "county live" }, { "model": "v3", "weight": 0.15004242351696637, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "market", "weight": 0.0786646379365536, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "histgeo", "weight": 0.06573339512824654, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "latent", "weight": 0.08483492578364633, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "batchbias", "weight": 0.04883898267529022, "source": "county remaining" } ], "candidate_benchmarks": { "Abdul El-Sayed": { "opponent": "Haley Stevens", "expected_remaining_share_points": 43.94145388169189, "expected_final_county_share_points": 41.94741327630122, "current_county_share_points": 41.875505254648345, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 42.75268882707857, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 42.75268882707857, "required_final_county_share_points": 41.906036766658936, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 42.75268882707857, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": -51713.12375166965, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": false }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 42.75268882707857, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 42.75268882707857, "required_final_county_share_points": 41.906036766658936, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 42.75268882707857, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 43.384256852417806, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 43.384256852417806, "required_final_county_share_points": 41.92801931097145, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.024044322225107804, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999973, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 44.017054066842476, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 44.017054066842476, "required_final_county_share_points": 41.950044638804435, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.003259695682198218, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.9999999999999996, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": 1.1887650546133202, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "ABOVE", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 3.63357563477211e-05, "criticality_score": 3.0565969454359796e-05, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -60894.24488648779, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -8140.6340740838605, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 19434.613069909876, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Haley Stevens": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 49.10657576191287, "expected_final_county_share_points": 49.92988972215951, "current_county_share_points": 49.95957962813258, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 50.2953408165262, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 50.2953408165262, "required_final_county_share_points": 49.97126623180179, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 50.2953408165262, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 51806.17178131326, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 50.2953408165262, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 50.2953408165262, "required_final_county_share_points": 49.97126623180179, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 50.2953408165262, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 50.92567698545625, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 50.92567698545625, "required_final_county_share_points": 49.99320589975417, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.07865391656842785, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.999999999999999, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 51.55477865435113, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 51.55477865435113, "required_final_county_share_points": 50.015102599331584, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.10597932088248406, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -1.1887650546133273, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 3.63357563477211e-05, "criticality_score": 3.056596945435961e-05, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 60987.292916131395, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 113740.9037285353, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 141316.15087252908, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Mallory McMorrow": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 6.95197035639523, "expected_final_county_share_points": 8.122697001539272, "current_county_share_points": 8.164915117219078, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 39.6597924080381, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 39.6597924080381, "required_final_county_share_points": 9.26113517251823, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 39.6597924080381, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1246165.1540773183, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 39.6597924080381, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 39.6597924080381, "required_final_county_share_points": 9.26113517251823, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 39.6597924080381, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 40.123334744010954, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 40.123334744010954, "required_final_county_share_points": 9.277269364770563, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.159018308558073, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999906, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 40.57960128626309, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 40.57960128626309, "required_final_county_share_points": 9.293150313585201, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.213613509684069, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.999999999999993, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -32.70782205164287, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "WELL BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 3.63357563477211e-05, "criticality_score": 1.1109194702829807e-06, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 60945.13831072587, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 113698.74912312979, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 141273.99626712356, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } } } }, { "cid": "26001", "county": "26001", "fips": null, "reporting": 0.0, "current_votes": 0, "current_candidate_votes": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 0, "Haley Stevens": 0, "Mallory McMorrow": 0 }, "current_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": null, "Haley Stevens": null, "Mallory McMorrow": null }, "estimated_remaining_votes": 44.41297746692453, "estimated_final_votes": 44.41297746692453, "turnout_disagreement_votes": 0.0, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 45.77032834674376, "Haley Stevens": 48.359122176595065, "Mallory McMorrow": 5.870549476661171 }, "remaining_sources": [ { "model": "market", "remaining_votes": 44.41297746692453, "weight": 0.1780093144963334 } ], "share_sources": [ { "model": "v0", "weight": 0.03630604611298715, "source": "statewide raw" }, { "model": "v3", "weight": 0.06301781787712588, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "market", "weight": 0.18729675699179427, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "histgeo", "weight": 0.02760802595386354, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "latent", "weight": 0.03563066882913146, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "batchbias", "weight": 0.020512372723621893, "source": "statewide fallback" } ], "candidate_benchmarks": { "Abdul El-Sayed": { "opponent": "Haley Stevens", "expected_remaining_share_points": 45.77032834674376, "expected_final_county_share_points": 45.77032834674376, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 44.56407668701315, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 44.56407668701315, "required_final_county_share_points": 44.56407668701315, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 44.56407668701315, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": -51938.60090025977, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": false }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 44.56407668701315, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 44.56407668701315, "required_final_county_share_points": 44.56407668701315, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 44.56407668701315, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 45.20515071393028, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 45.20515071393028, "required_final_county_share_points": 45.20515071393028, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.024044322225107804, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999973, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 45.8469820345517, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 45.8469820345517, "required_final_county_share_points": 45.846982034551694, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.003259695682198218, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.9999999999999996, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": 1.2062516597306114, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "ABOVE", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 3.617687520566053e-05, "criticality_score": 2.9991150614242308e-05, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -61160.04356652592, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -8174.750114699829, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 19521.60165024123, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Haley Stevens": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 48.359122176595065, "expected_final_county_share_points": 48.359122176595065, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 49.56537383632567, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 49.56537383632567, "required_final_county_share_points": 49.565373836325676, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 49.56537383632567, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 52032.73035078311, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 49.56537383632567, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 49.56537383632567, "required_final_county_share_points": 49.565373836325676, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 49.56537383632567, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 50.20568556244268, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 50.20568556244268, "required_final_county_share_points": 50.20568556244268, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.07865391656842785, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.999999999999999, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 50.845229996395126, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 50.845229996395126, "required_final_county_share_points": 50.845229996395126, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.10597932088248406, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -1.2062516597306043, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 3.617687520566053e-05, "criticality_score": 2.9991150614242484e-05, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 61254.17301704926, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 114239.46646887533, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 141935.8182338164, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Mallory McMorrow": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 5.870549476661171, "expected_final_county_share_points": 5.870549476661171, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 38.26983900705061, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 38.26983900705061, "required_final_county_share_points": 38.26983900705061, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 38.26983900705061, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1251636.9344559538, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 38.26983900705061, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 38.26983900705061, "required_final_county_share_points": 38.26983900705061, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 38.26983900705061, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 38.79559940409831, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 38.79559940409831, "required_final_county_share_points": 38.79559940409832, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.159018308558073, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999906, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 39.31519268020871, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 39.31519268020871, "required_final_county_share_points": 39.3151926802087, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.213613509684069, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.999999999999993, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -32.39928953038944, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "WELL BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 3.617687520566053e-05, "criticality_score": 1.1165947071687434e-06, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 61211.684444349325, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 114196.97789617539, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 141893.32966111644, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } } } }, { "cid": "26083", "county": "26083", "fips": null, "reporting": 0.0, "current_votes": 0, "current_candidate_votes": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 0, "Haley Stevens": 0, "Mallory McMorrow": 0 }, "current_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": null, "Haley Stevens": null, "Mallory McMorrow": null }, "estimated_remaining_votes": 35.8563472124265, "estimated_final_votes": 35.8563472124265, "turnout_disagreement_votes": 0.0, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 50.54534280267319, "Haley Stevens": 44.552768807264314, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.901888390062494 }, "remaining_sources": [ { "model": "market", "remaining_votes": 35.8563472124265, "weight": 0.1780093144963334 } ], "share_sources": [ { "model": "v0", "weight": 0.03630604611298715, "source": "statewide raw" }, { "model": "v3", "weight": 0.06301781787712588, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "market", "weight": 0.18729675699179427, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "histgeo", "weight": 0.02760802595386354, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "latent", "weight": 0.03563066882913146, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "batchbias", "weight": 0.020512372723621893, "source": "statewide fallback" } ], "candidate_benchmarks": { "Abdul El-Sayed": { "opponent": "Haley Stevens", "expected_remaining_share_points": 50.54534280267319, "expected_final_county_share_points": 50.54534280267318, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 49.32777143483561, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 49.32777143483561, "required_final_county_share_points": 49.32777143483562, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 49.32777143483561, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": -64339.190017864654, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": false }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 49.32777143483561, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 49.32777143483561, "required_final_county_share_points": 49.32777143483562, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 49.32777143483561, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 49.97556610001704, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 49.97556610001704, "required_final_county_share_points": 49.97556610001704, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.024044322225107804, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999973, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 50.62252480183776, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 50.62252480183776, "required_final_county_share_points": 50.62252480183776, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.003259695682198218, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.9999999999999996, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": 1.2175713678375786, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "ABOVE", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 2.920701723726636e-05, "criticality_score": 2.3987930407018664e-05, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -75761.20472904183, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -10131.690651300216, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 24174.019285211187, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Haley Stevens": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 44.552768807264314, "expected_final_county_share_points": 44.552768807264314, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 45.7703401751019, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 45.7703401751019, "required_final_county_share_points": 45.7703401751019, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 45.7703401751019, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 64434.288129474604, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 45.7703401751019, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 45.7703401751019, "required_final_county_share_points": 45.7703401751019, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 45.7703401751019, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 46.41896598801332, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 46.41896598801332, "required_final_county_share_points": 46.41896598801332, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.07865391656842785, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.999999999999999, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 47.06841809269153, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 47.06841809269153, "required_final_county_share_points": 47.06841809269153, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.10597932088248406, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -1.2175713678375857, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 2.920701723726636e-05, "criticality_score": 2.3987930407018525e-05, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 75856.30284065176, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 141485.81691839336, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 175791.52685490478, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Mallory McMorrow": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 4.901888390062494, "expected_final_county_share_points": 4.901888390062494, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 37.923422838201105, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 37.923422838201105, "required_final_county_share_points": 37.923422838201105, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 37.923422838201105, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1550320.7193042855, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 37.923422838201105, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 37.923422838201105, "required_final_county_share_points": 37.923422838201105, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 37.923422838201105, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 38.56129569024896, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 38.56129569024896, "required_final_county_share_points": 38.56129569024896, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.159018308558073, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999906, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 39.19550814893862, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 39.19550814893862, "required_final_county_share_points": 39.19550814893862, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.213613509684069, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.999999999999993, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -33.02153444813861, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "WELL BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 2.920701723726636e-05, "criticality_score": 8.844839504092982e-07, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 75816.65196023455, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 141446.16603797616, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 175751.87597448757, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } } } }, { "cid": "fips:26083", "county": "Keweenaw", "fips": "26083", "reporting": 92.62, "current_votes": 414, "current_candidate_votes": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 216, "Haley Stevens": 173, "Mallory McMorrow": 25 }, "current_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 52.17391304347826, "Haley Stevens": 41.78743961352657, "Mallory McMorrow": 6.038647342995169 }, "estimated_remaining_votes": 35.70628898706627, "estimated_final_votes": 449.7062889870663, "turnout_disagreement_votes": 0.0, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 51.414155854246644, "Haley Stevens": 43.17512027896332, "Mallory McMorrow": 5.410723866790038 }, "remaining_sources": [ { "model": "v3", "remaining_votes": 35.70628898706627, "weight": 0.1342208488636769 }, { "model": "histgeo", "remaining_votes": 35.70628898706627, "weight": 0.05994207394479305 }, { "model": "latent", "remaining_votes": 35.70628898706627, "weight": 0.07672787409296966 }, { "model": "batchbias", "remaining_votes": 35.70628898706627, "weight": 0.045123489075924846 } ], "share_sources": [ { "model": "v0", "weight": 0.03630604611298715, "source": "statewide raw" }, { "model": "v1", "weight": 0.14599140026529184, "source": "county live" }, { "model": "v3", "weight": 0.15004242351696637, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "market", "weight": 0.0786646379365536, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "histgeo", "weight": 0.06573339512824654, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "latent", "weight": 0.08483492578364633, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "batchbias", "weight": 0.04883898267529022, "source": "county remaining" } ], "candidate_benchmarks": { "Abdul El-Sayed": { "opponent": "Haley Stevens", "expected_remaining_share_points": 51.414155854246644, "expected_final_county_share_points": 52.11358898214523, "current_county_share_points": 52.17391304347826, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 50.206748338556984, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 50.206748338556984, "required_final_county_share_points": 52.01772187346529, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 50.206748338556984, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": -64608.92365871508, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": false }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 50.206748338556984, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 50.206748338556984, "required_final_county_share_points": 52.01772187346529, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 50.206748338556984, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 50.84932166421034, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 50.84932166421034, "required_final_county_share_points": 52.06874163774932, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.024044322225107804, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999973, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 51.49064316406017, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 51.49064316406017, "required_final_county_share_points": 52.119662008151145, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.003259695682198218, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.9999999999999996, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": 1.2074075156896598, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "ABOVE", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 2.908478634886257e-05, "criticality_score": 2.4088624570346173e-05, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -76078.94020111645, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -10173.61341101689, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 24276.268717532173, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Haley Stevens": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 43.17512027896332, "expected_final_county_share_points": 41.89762025381394, "current_county_share_points": 41.78743961352657, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 44.38252779465299, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 44.38252779465299, "required_final_county_share_points": 41.993487362493866, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 44.38252779465299, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 64703.51293484829, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 44.38252779465299, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 44.38252779465299, "required_final_county_share_points": 41.993487362493866, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 44.38252779465299, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 45.02635022354158, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 45.02635022354158, "required_final_county_share_points": 42.04460630449049, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.07865391656842785, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.999999999999999, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 45.67141898629111, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 45.67141898629111, "required_final_county_share_points": 42.095824204313836, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.10597932088248406, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -1.2074075156896669, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 2.908478634886257e-05, "criticality_score": 2.408862457034603e-05, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 76173.52947724966, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 142078.8562673492, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 176528.73839589828, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Mallory McMorrow": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 5.410723866790038, "expected_final_county_share_points": 5.988790764040837, "current_county_share_points": 6.038647342995169, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 39.854050999225315, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 39.854050999225315, "required_final_county_share_points": 8.723561040518259, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 39.854050999225315, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1556836.5409014327, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 39.854050999225315, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 39.854050999225315, "required_final_county_share_points": 8.723561040518259, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 39.854050999225315, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 40.486918980266964, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 40.486918980266964, "required_final_county_share_points": 8.773810208864633, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.159018308558073, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999906, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 41.114995823411356, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 41.114995823411356, "required_final_county_share_points": 8.823678965020816, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.213613509684069, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.999999999999993, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -34.44332713243528, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "WELL BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 2.908478634886257e-05, "criticality_score": 8.444244145471483e-07, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 76135.76508083749, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 142041.09187093703, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 176490.9739994861, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } } } }, { "cid": "26133", "county": "26133", "fips": null, "reporting": 0.0, "current_votes": 0, "current_candidate_votes": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 0, "Haley Stevens": 0, "Mallory McMorrow": 0 }, "current_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": null, "Haley Stevens": null, "Mallory McMorrow": null }, "estimated_remaining_votes": 20.765896460573458, "estimated_final_votes": 20.765896460573458, "turnout_disagreement_votes": 0.0, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 45.09658156322723, "Haley Stevens": 49.80898453019564, "Mallory McMorrow": 5.094433906577141 }, "remaining_sources": [ { "model": "market", "remaining_votes": 20.765896460573458, "weight": 0.1780093144963334 } ], "share_sources": [ { "model": "v0", "weight": 0.03630604611298715, "source": "statewide raw" }, { "model": "v3", "weight": 0.06301781787712588, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "market", "weight": 0.18729675699179427, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "histgeo", "weight": 0.02760802595386354, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "latent", "weight": 0.03563066882913146, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "batchbias", "weight": 0.020512372723621893, "source": "statewide fallback" } ], "candidate_benchmarks": { "Abdul El-Sayed": { "opponent": "Haley Stevens", "expected_remaining_share_points": 45.09658156322723, "expected_final_county_share_points": 45.09658156322723, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 43.88315370763939, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 43.88315370763939, "required_final_county_share_points": 43.88315370763939, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 43.88315370763939, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": -111136.26813302236, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": false }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 43.88315370763939, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 43.88315370763939, "required_final_county_share_points": 43.88315370763939, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 43.88315370763939, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 44.52786996707626, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 44.52786996707626, "required_final_county_share_points": 44.52786996707626, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.024044322225107804, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999973, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 45.173737872771454, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 45.173737872771454, "required_final_county_share_points": 45.173737872771454, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.003259695682198218, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.9999999999999996, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": 1.2134278555878453, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "ABOVE", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 1.691499394174383e-05, "criticality_score": 1.393984311786658e-05, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -130858.59151679727, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -17536.508426272667, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 41698.95242598537, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Haley Stevens": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 49.80898453019564, "expected_final_county_share_points": 49.80898453019564, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 51.022412385783475, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 51.022412385783475, "required_final_county_share_points": 51.022412385783475, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 51.022412385783475, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 111231.17369911578, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 51.022412385783475, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 51.022412385783475, "required_final_county_share_points": 51.022412385783475, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 51.022412385783475, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 51.665973699583475, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 51.665973699583475, "required_final_county_share_points": 51.665973699583475, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.07865391656842785, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.999999999999999, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 52.3083767917272, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 52.3083767917272, "required_final_county_share_points": 52.3083767917272, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.10597932088248406, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -1.2134278555878382, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 1.691499394174383e-05, "criticality_score": 1.3939843117866663e-05, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 130953.4970828907, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 244275.58017341525, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 303511.04102567333, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Mallory McMorrow": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 5.094433906577141, "expected_final_county_share_points": 5.09443390657714, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 35.93569516939837, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 35.93569516939837, "required_final_county_share_points": 35.93569516939837, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 35.93569516939837, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 2676925.9942237562, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 35.93569516939837, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 35.93569516939837, "required_final_county_share_points": 35.93569516939837, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 35.93569516939837, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 36.47796503384312, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 36.47796503384312, "required_final_county_share_points": 36.47796503384312, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.159018308558073, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999906, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 37.015296823645016, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 37.015296823645016, "required_final_county_share_points": 37.015296823645016, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.213613509684069, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.999999999999993, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -30.84126126282123, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "WELL BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 1.691499394174383e-05, "criticality_score": 5.484533786604457e-07, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 130908.78253226707, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 244230.86562279164, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 303466.3264750497, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } } } }, { "cid": "fips:26133", "county": "Osceola", "fips": "26133", "reporting": 99.0, "current_votes": 1571, "current_candidate_votes": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 634, "Haley Stevens": 833, "Mallory McMorrow": 104 }, "current_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 40.3564608529599, "Haley Stevens": 53.02355187778485, "Mallory McMorrow": 6.619987269255251 }, "estimated_remaining_votes": 19.133493263277842, "estimated_final_votes": 1590.1334932632778, "turnout_disagreement_votes": 0.0, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 42.84098377218572, "Haley Stevens": 51.316005385995645, "Mallory McMorrow": 5.8430108418186455 }, "remaining_sources": [ { "model": "v3", "remaining_votes": 19.133493263277842, "weight": 0.1342208488636769 }, { "model": "histgeo", "remaining_votes": 19.133493263277842, "weight": 0.05994207394479305 }, { "model": "latent", "remaining_votes": 19.133493263277842, "weight": 0.07672787409296966 }, { "model": "batchbias", "remaining_votes": 19.133493263277842, "weight": 0.045123489075924846 } ], "share_sources": [ { "model": "v0", "weight": 0.03630604611298715, "source": "statewide raw" }, { "model": "v1", "weight": 0.14599140026529184, "source": "county live" }, { "model": "v3", "weight": 0.15004242351696637, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "market", "weight": 0.0786646379365536, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "histgeo", "weight": 0.06573339512824654, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "latent", "weight": 0.08483492578364633, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "batchbias", "weight": 0.04883898267529022, "source": "county remaining" } ], "candidate_benchmarks": { "Abdul El-Sayed": { "opponent": "Haley Stevens", "expected_remaining_share_points": 42.84098377218572, "expected_final_county_share_points": 40.38635620623612, "current_county_share_points": 40.3564608529599, "recent_batch_votes": 228, "recent_batch_share_points": 39.473684210526315, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 41.645166002780186, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 41.645166002780186, "required_final_county_share_points": 40.37196736949257, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 41.645166002780186, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": -120624.1316510417, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": false }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 41.645166002780186, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 41.645166002780186, "required_final_county_share_points": 40.37196736949257, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 41.645166002780186, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 42.28021779737176, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 42.28021779737176, "required_final_county_share_points": 40.37960871487969, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.024044322225107804, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999973, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 42.917104004229515, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 42.917104004229515, "required_final_county_share_points": 40.38727213307697, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.003259695682198218, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.9999999999999996, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": 1.1958177694055365, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -2.1714817922538714, "status": "ABOVE", "recent_status": "BELOW", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 1.5585309463871013e-05, "criticality_score": 1.3033181026920818e-05, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -142029.09517306875, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -19038.76550489435, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 45250.459150865805, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Haley Stevens": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 51.316005385995645, "expected_final_county_share_points": 53.003005596962645, "current_county_share_points": 53.02355187778485, "recent_batch_votes": 228, "recent_batch_share_points": 53.94736842105263, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 52.51182315540118, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 52.51182315540118, "required_final_county_share_points": 53.0173944337062, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 52.51182315540118, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 120718.28864019987, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 52.51182315540118, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 52.51182315540118, "required_final_county_share_points": 53.0173944337062, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 52.51182315540118, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 53.14504218080076, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 53.14504218080076, "required_final_county_share_points": 53.02501372605366, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.07865391656842785, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.999999999999999, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 53.776430095742114, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 53.776430095742114, "required_final_county_share_points": 53.032610985320396, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.10597932088248406, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -1.1958177694055365, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": 1.4355452656514487, "status": "BELOW", "recent_status": "ABOVE", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 1.5585309463871013e-05, "criticality_score": 1.3033181026920818e-05, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 142123.25216222694, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 265113.5818304013, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 329402.8064861615, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Mallory McMorrow": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 5.8430108418186455, "expected_final_county_share_points": 6.610638196801229, "current_county_share_points": 6.619987269255251, "recent_batch_votes": 228, "recent_batch_share_points": 6.578947368421052, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 36.643946502032115, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 36.643946502032115, "required_final_county_share_points": 6.9812545616876305, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 36.643946502032115, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 2905312.3374015074, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 36.643946502032115, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 36.643946502032115, "required_final_county_share_points": 6.9812545616876305, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 36.643946502032115, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 37.12449412248782, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 37.12449412248782, "required_final_county_share_points": 6.9870368150000886, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.159018308558073, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999906, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 37.598823834433134, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 37.598823834433134, "required_final_county_share_points": 6.99274425049939, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.213613509684069, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.999999999999993, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -30.80093566021347, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -30.064999133611064, "status": "WELL BELOW", "recent_status": "WELL BELOW", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 1.5585309463871013e-05, "criticality_score": 5.060011694385974e-07, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 142077.77916768275, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 265068.1088358571, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 329357.3334916173, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } } } }, { "cid": "26095", "county": "26095", "fips": null, "reporting": 0.0, "current_votes": 0, "current_candidate_votes": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 0, "Haley Stevens": 0, "Mallory McMorrow": 0 }, "current_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": null, "Haley Stevens": null, "Mallory McMorrow": null }, "estimated_remaining_votes": 6.349298818934301, "estimated_final_votes": 6.349298818934301, "turnout_disagreement_votes": 0.0, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 46.186790528506585, "Haley Stevens": 48.15331330191162, "Mallory McMorrow": 5.659896169581791 }, "remaining_sources": [ { "model": "market", "remaining_votes": 6.349298818934301, "weight": 0.1780093144963334 } ], "share_sources": [ { "model": "v0", "weight": 0.03630604611298715, "source": "statewide raw" }, { "model": "v3", "weight": 0.06301781787712588, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "market", "weight": 0.18729675699179427, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "histgeo", "weight": 0.02760802595386354, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "latent", "weight": 0.03563066882913146, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "batchbias", "weight": 0.020512372723621893, "source": "statewide fallback" } ], "candidate_benchmarks": { "Abdul El-Sayed": { "opponent": "Haley Stevens", "expected_remaining_share_points": 46.186790528506585, "expected_final_county_share_points": 46.186790528506585, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 44.9772434252879, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 44.9772434252879, "required_final_county_share_points": 44.9772434252879, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 44.9772434252879, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": -363581.4788539525, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": false }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 44.9772434252879, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 44.9772434252879, "required_final_county_share_points": 44.9772434252879, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 44.9772434252879, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 45.620120281701126, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 45.620120281701126, "required_final_county_share_points": 45.62012028170113, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.024044322225107804, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999973, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 46.26363967307476, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 46.26363967307476, "required_final_county_share_points": 46.26363967307476, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.003259695682198218, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.9999999999999996, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": 1.2095471032186822, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "ABOVE", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 5.171862012338527e-06, "criticality_score": 4.275866560777891e-06, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -428084.9361692844, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -57455.87754997135, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 136278.49878527338, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Haley Stevens": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 48.15331330191162, "expected_final_county_share_points": 48.15331330191162, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 49.362860405130284, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 49.362860405130284, "required_final_county_share_points": 49.362860405130284, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 49.362860405130284, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 363675.8189577829, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 49.362860405130284, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 49.362860405130284, "required_final_county_share_points": 49.362860405130284, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 49.362860405130284, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 50.00508932225468, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 50.00508932225468, "required_final_county_share_points": 50.00508932225468, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.07865391656842785, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.999999999999999, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 50.6466649081806, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 50.6466649081806, "required_final_county_share_points": 50.6466649081806, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.10597932088248406, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -1.2095471032186609, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 5.171862012338527e-06, "criticality_score": 4.2758665607779666e-06, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 428179.27627311484, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 798808.3348924279, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 992542.7112276726, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Mallory McMorrow": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 5.659896169581791, "expected_final_county_share_points": 5.659896169581791, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 37.96374249047685, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 37.96374249047685, "required_final_county_share_points": 37.96374249047685, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 37.96374249047685, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 8755092.453481896, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 37.96374249047685, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 37.96374249047685, "required_final_county_share_points": 37.96374249047685, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 37.96374249047685, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 38.50336886832389, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 38.50336886832389, "required_final_county_share_points": 38.50336886832389, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.159018308558073, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999906, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 39.03716360335, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 39.03716360335, "required_final_county_share_points": 39.03716360335, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.213613509684069, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.999999999999993, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -32.303846320895055, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "WELL BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 5.171862012338527e-06, "criticality_score": 1.60100501994811e-07, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 428136.7828559825, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 798765.8414752955, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 992500.2178105402, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } } } }, { "cid": "fips:26135", "county": "Oscoda", "fips": "26135", "reporting": 99.0, "current_votes": 1082, "current_candidate_votes": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 412, "Haley Stevens": 631, "Mallory McMorrow": 39 }, "current_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 38.07763401109057, "Haley Stevens": 58.317929759704256, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.6044362292051755 }, "estimated_remaining_votes": 6.011111111111064, "estimated_final_votes": 1088.0111111111112, "turnout_disagreement_votes": 6.011111111111064, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 41.195319576083484, "Haley Stevens": 55.15509481308697, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.6495856108295506 }, "remaining_sources": [ { "model": "v3", "remaining_votes": 0.0, "weight": 0.1342208488636769 }, { "model": "histgeo", "remaining_votes": 0.0, "weight": 0.05994207394479305 }, { "model": "latent", "remaining_votes": 0.0, "weight": 0.07672787409296966 }, { "model": "batchbias", "remaining_votes": 0.0, "weight": 0.045123489075924846 } ], "share_sources": [ { "model": "v0", "weight": 0.03630604611298715, "source": "statewide raw" }, { "model": "v1", "weight": 0.14599140026529184, "source": "county live" }, { "model": "v3", "weight": 0.15004242351696637, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "market", "weight": 0.0786646379365536, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "histgeo", "weight": 0.06573339512824654, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "latent", "weight": 0.08483492578364633, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "batchbias", "weight": 0.04883898267529022, "source": "county remaining" } ], "candidate_benchmarks": { "Abdul El-Sayed": { "opponent": "Haley Stevens", "expected_remaining_share_points": 41.195319576083484, "expected_final_county_share_points": 38.0948587932176, "current_county_share_points": 38.07763401109057, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 39.989241721015205, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 39.989241721015205, "required_final_county_share_points": 38.08819537965369, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 39.989241721015205, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": -384044.31987589976, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": false }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 39.989241721015205, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 39.989241721015205, "required_final_county_share_points": 38.08819537965369, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 39.989241721015205, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 40.62932044253913, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 40.62932044253913, "required_final_county_share_points": 38.09173172618145, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.024044322225107804, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999973, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 41.27220768234806, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 41.27220768234806, "required_final_county_share_points": 38.095283589384806, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.003259695682198218, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.9999999999999996, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": 1.2060778550682798, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "ABOVE", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 4.896389049258738e-06, "criticality_score": 4.059762003491506e-06, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -452176.7695643425, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -60695.96000077151, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 143937.9960375126, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Haley Stevens": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 55.15509481308697, "expected_final_county_share_points": 58.30045553347984, "current_county_share_points": 58.317929759704256, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 56.361172668155255, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 56.361172668155255, "required_final_county_share_points": 58.307118947043755, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 56.361172668155255, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 384140.6702902889, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 56.361172668155255, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 56.361172668155255, "required_final_county_share_points": 58.307118947043755, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 56.361172668155255, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 56.998454928708355, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 56.998454928708355, "required_final_county_share_points": 58.310639843510906, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.07865391656842785, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.999999999999999, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 57.63295272454078, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 57.63295272454078, "required_final_county_share_points": 58.314145356195056, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.10597932088248406, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -1.206077855068287, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 4.896389049258738e-06, "criticality_score": 4.059762003491482e-06, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 452273.1199787317, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 843753.9295423025, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1048387.8855805867, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Mallory McMorrow": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 3.6495856108295506, "expected_final_county_share_points": 3.6046856733025474, "current_county_share_points": 3.6044362292051755, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 29.78078663836441, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 29.78078663836441, "required_final_county_share_points": 3.749056949697767, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 29.78078663836441, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 9247655.408247983, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 29.78078663836441, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 29.78078663836441, "required_final_county_share_points": 3.749056949697767, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 29.78078663836441, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 30.31375848753169, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 30.31375848753169, "required_final_county_share_points": 3.7520015455495193, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.159018308558073, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999906, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 30.844791877623084, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 30.844791877623084, "required_final_county_share_points": 3.754935431682621, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.213613509684069, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.999999999999993, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -26.13120102753486, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "WELL BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 4.896389049258738e-06, "criticality_score": 1.8737711458801052e-07, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 452221.6144695294, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 843702.4240331003, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1048336.3800713845, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } } } }, { "cid": "fips:26095", "county": "Luce", "fips": "26095", "reporting": 99.0, "current_votes": 407, "current_candidate_votes": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 174, "Haley Stevens": 201, "Mallory McMorrow": 32 }, "current_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 42.75184275184275, "Haley Stevens": 49.385749385749385, "Mallory McMorrow": 7.862407862407863 }, "estimated_remaining_votes": 5.603236249659915, "estimated_final_votes": 412.6032362496599, "turnout_disagreement_votes": 0.0, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 44.58543150399778, "Haley Stevens": 48.68284182359973, "Mallory McMorrow": 6.731726672402479 }, "remaining_sources": [ { "model": "v3", "remaining_votes": 5.603236249659915, "weight": 0.1342208488636769 }, { "model": "histgeo", "remaining_votes": 5.603236249659915, "weight": 0.05994207394479305 }, { "model": "latent", "remaining_votes": 5.603236249659915, "weight": 0.07672787409296966 }, { "model": "batchbias", "remaining_votes": 5.603236249659915, "weight": 0.045123489075924846 } ], "share_sources": [ { "model": "v0", "weight": 0.03630604611298715, "source": "statewide raw" }, { "model": "v1", "weight": 0.14599140026529184, "source": "county live" }, { "model": "v3", "weight": 0.15004242351696637, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "market", "weight": 0.0786646379365536, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "histgeo", "weight": 0.06573339512824654, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "latent", "weight": 0.08483492578364633, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "batchbias", "weight": 0.04883898267529022, "source": "county remaining" } ], "candidate_benchmarks": { "Abdul El-Sayed": { "opponent": "Haley Stevens", "expected_remaining_share_points": 44.58543150399778, "expected_final_county_share_points": 42.77674326172829, "current_county_share_points": 42.75184275184275, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 43.39212226693977, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 43.39212226693977, "required_final_county_share_points": 42.76053787847703, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 43.39212226693977, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": -411999.56283164845, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": false }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 43.39212226693977, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 43.39212226693977, "required_final_county_share_points": 42.76053787847703, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 43.39212226693977, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 44.02619273018236, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 44.02619273018236, "required_final_county_share_points": 42.76914868491853, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.024044322225107804, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999973, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 44.66129672533574, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 44.66129672533574, "required_final_county_share_points": 42.77777352693454, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.003259695682198218, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.9999999999999996, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": 1.1933092370580098, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "ABOVE", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 4.564151968931638e-06, "criticality_score": 3.824785585490077e-06, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -485091.5595102238, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -65113.793215403726, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 154416.02706069147, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Haley Stevens": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 48.68284182359973, "expected_final_county_share_points": 49.376203757440216, "current_county_share_points": 49.385749385749385, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 49.87615106065774, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 49.87615106065774, "required_final_county_share_points": 49.39240914069149, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 49.87615106065774, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 412092.831104976, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 49.87615106065774, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 49.87615106065774, "required_final_county_share_points": 49.39240914069149, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 49.87615106065774, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 50.50918423975368, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 50.50918423975368, "required_final_county_share_points": 49.40100586060233, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.07865391656842785, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.999999999999999, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 51.14117640413849, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 51.14117640413849, "required_final_county_share_points": 49.409588443320715, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.10597932088248406, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -1.1933092370580098, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 4.564151968931638e-06, "criticality_score": 3.824785585490077e-06, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 485184.8277835514, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 905162.5940783714, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1124692.4143544668, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Mallory McMorrow": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 6.731726672402479, "expected_final_county_share_points": 7.847052980831477, "current_county_share_points": 7.862407862407863, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 39.57202357551705, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 39.57202357551705, "required_final_county_share_points": 8.293030922569635, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 39.57202357551705, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 9920820.304696234, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 39.57202357551705, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 39.57202357551705, "required_final_county_share_points": 8.293030922569635, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 39.57202357551705, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 40.05181387083032, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 40.05181387083032, "required_final_county_share_points": 8.299546572808762, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.159018308558073, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999906, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 40.5244778505859, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 40.5244778505859, "required_final_county_share_points": 8.305965446226594, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.213613509684069, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.999999999999993, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -32.84029690311457, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "WELL BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 4.564151968931638e-06, "criticality_score": 1.3898022854046652e-07, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 485142.8766684002, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 905120.6429632202, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1124650.4632393157, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } } } }, { "cid": "26135", "county": "26135", "fips": null, "reporting": 0.0, "current_votes": 0, "current_candidate_votes": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 0, "Haley Stevens": 0, "Mallory McMorrow": 0 }, "current_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": null, "Haley Stevens": null, "Mallory McMorrow": null }, "estimated_remaining_votes": 0.0, "estimated_final_votes": 0.0, "turnout_disagreement_votes": 0.0, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 44.05942024273639, "Haley Stevens": 52.2186120869277, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.721967670335919 }, "remaining_sources": [ { "model": "market", "remaining_votes": 0.0, "weight": 0.1780093144963334 } ], "share_sources": [ { "model": "v0", "weight": 0.03630604611298715, "source": "statewide raw" }, { "model": "v3", "weight": 0.06301781787712588, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "market", "weight": 0.18729675699179427, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "histgeo", "weight": 0.02760802595386354, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "latent", "weight": 0.03563066882913146, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "batchbias", "weight": 0.020512372723621893, "source": "statewide fallback" } ], "candidate_benchmarks": { "Abdul El-Sayed": { "opponent": "Haley Stevens", "expected_remaining_share_points": 44.05942024273639, "expected_final_county_share_points": 0.0, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 42.83536582782532, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 42.83536582782532, "required_final_county_share_points": 0.0, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": null, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": false }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 42.83536582782532, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 42.83536582782532, "required_final_county_share_points": 0.0, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 43.48545408349514, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 43.48545408349514, "required_final_county_share_points": 0.0, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.024044322225107804, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999973, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 44.13732671870033, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 44.13732671870033, "required_final_county_share_points": 0.0, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.003259695682198218, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.9999999999999996, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": 1.2240544149110661, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "ABOVE", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.0, "criticality_score": 0.0 }, "Haley Stevens": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 52.2186120869277, "expected_final_county_share_points": 0.0, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 53.44266650183875, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 53.44266650183875, "required_final_county_share_points": 0.0, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": null, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": false }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 53.44266650183875, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 53.44266650183875, "required_final_county_share_points": 0.0, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 54.09097127374333, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 54.09097127374333, "required_final_county_share_points": 0.0, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.07865391656842785, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.999999999999999, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 54.73749347663722, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 54.73749347663722, "required_final_county_share_points": 0.0, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.10597932088248406, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -1.224054414911052, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.0, "criticality_score": 0.0 }, "Mallory McMorrow": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 3.721967670335919, "expected_final_county_share_points": 0.0, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 31.219860722705857, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 31.219860722705857, "required_final_county_share_points": 0.0, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": null, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": false }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 31.219860722705857, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 31.219860722705857, "required_final_county_share_points": 0.0, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 31.796703674934328, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 31.796703674934328, "required_final_county_share_points": 0.0, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.159018308558073, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999906, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 32.37210310041463, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 32.37210310041463, "required_final_county_share_points": 0.0, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.213613509684069, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.999999999999993, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -27.49789305236994, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "WELL BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.0, "criticality_score": 0.0 } } } ], "method_note": "A county's headline win benchmark is a distributed statewide path: V6 solves the common candidate-vs-opponent log-odds swing across all remaining counties required for a statewide tie, then translates that path into a target share for each county. A separate single-county break-even diagnostic is retained for leverage analysis. All benchmarks recalculate after every dump.", "monte_carlo_benchmark_context": { "reference_candidate": "Abdul El-Sayed", "signed_margin_p10": -0.7209907602907051, "signed_margin_median": 2.2142350911356914, "signed_margin_p90": 5.11662886049802, "approx_margin_sigma_points": 2.277559396647456, "note": "50/80/90% county probability benchmarks use a normal approximation to the signed statewide Monte Carlo margin distribution. They are scenario guides, while the tie benchmark is exact conditional on the deterministic expectations elsewhere." } }, "benchmark_signal": { "available": true, "favored_candidate": "Abdul El-Sayed", "least_favored_candidate": "Mallory McMorrow", "evidence": 0.6671350391989715, "favored_signal_score": 0.03915837526743363, "favored_weighted_excess_points": 0.6016278877844345, "favored_breadth_balance": -0.23076923076923078, "candidates": { "Abdul El-Sayed": { "weighted_excess_points": 0.6016278877844345, "above_benchmark_counties": 18, "below_benchmark_counties": 30, "on_benchmark_counties": 4, "unique_counties": 37, "unique_markets": 7, "votes_scored": 37949.0, "breadth_balance": -0.23076923076923078, "evidence": 0.6671350391989715, "signal_score": 0.03915837526743363 }, "Haley Stevens": { "weighted_excess_points": -0.8565954088812535, "above_benchmark_counties": 28, "below_benchmark_counties": 18, "on_benchmark_counties": 6, "unique_counties": 37, "unique_markets": 7, "votes_scored": 37949.0, "breadth_balance": 0.19230769230769232, "evidence": 0.6671350391989715, "signal_score": -0.08767358497472703 }, "Mallory McMorrow": { "weighted_excess_points": -29.590177532489776, "above_benchmark_counties": 0, "below_benchmark_counties": 52, "on_benchmark_counties": 0, "unique_counties": 37, "unique_markets": 7, "votes_scored": 37949.0, "breadth_balance": -1.0, "evidence": 0.6671350391989715, "signal_score": -0.667135039155625 } }, "intervals": [ { "from_snapshot": 44, "to_snapshot": 45, "new_votes": 10283, "changed_counties": 13, "benchmark_observations_scored": 39 }, { "from_snapshot": 45, "to_snapshot": 46, "new_votes": 8299, "changed_counties": 14, "benchmark_observations_scored": 42 }, { "from_snapshot": 46, "to_snapshot": 47, "new_votes": 12360, "changed_counties": 12, "benchmark_observations_scored": 36 }, { "from_snapshot": 47, "to_snapshot": 48, "new_votes": 7007, "changed_counties": 13, "benchmark_observations_scored": 39 } ], "method_note": "V6 rebuilds county tie benchmarks and the preliminary expert gate exactly as they existed at each prior snapshot, then grades only later-arriving vote. Broad, repeated benchmark beats across independent counties are stronger evidence than one friendly dump." }, "crossover_consensus": { "available": false, "raw_leader": "Abdul El-Sayed", "candidate": null, "eligible": false, "score": 0.0, "independent_families": 0, "candidates": {} }, "horizon_validation": { "v0": { "short_path_quality": 0.5960141637281827, "short_path_evidence": 0.6090081831189499, "maturation_quality": 0.21548795659162212, "maturation_evidence": 1.0, "specialist_exam": { "available": false, "score": 0.0, "mae_points": null, "evidence": 0.0, "exam": null }, "final_quality": 0.21548795659162212, "final_evidence": 1.0, "residual_mae_points": 6.906826155985889 }, "v1": { "short_path_quality": 0.589254528735769, "short_path_evidence": 0.5898586588970036, "maturation_quality": 0.3374278868570438, "maturation_evidence": 0.7700863821896933, "specialist_exam": { "available": false, "score": 0.0, "mae_points": null, "evidence": 0.0, "exam": null }, "final_quality": 0.3374278868570438, "final_evidence": 0.7700863821896933, "residual_mae_points": 5.82642525665127 }, "v3": { "short_path_quality": 0.6700150915938691, "short_path_evidence": 0.6090081831189499, "maturation_quality": 0.2492213710187745, "maturation_evidence": 1.0, "specialist_exam": { "available": false, "score": 0.0, "mae_points": null, "evidence": 0.0, "exam": null }, "final_quality": 0.2492213710187745, "final_evidence": 1.0, "residual_mae_points": 6.252361817596126 }, "market": { "short_path_quality": 0.55, "short_path_evidence": 0.0, "maturation_quality": 0.55, "maturation_evidence": 0.0, "specialist_exam": { "available": false, "score": 0.0, "mae_points": null, "evidence": 0.0, "exam": null }, "final_quality": 0.55, "final_evidence": 0.0, "residual_mae_points": 6.0 }, "histgeo": { "short_path_quality": 0.6781502087045048, "short_path_evidence": 0.6090081831189499, "maturation_quality": 0.2615765604883897, "maturation_evidence": 1.0, "specialist_exam": { "available": true, "score": 0.4821328465755259, "mae_points": 4.012445731824946, "evidence": 1.0, "exam": "held-out historical coalition geography" }, "final_quality": 0.32774344631453056, "final_evidence": 1.0, "residual_mae_points": 5.023536459896757 }, "latent": { "short_path_quality": 0.6811748538733077, "short_path_evidence": 0.6090081831189499, "maturation_quality": 0.25924045130541196, "maturation_evidence": 1.0, "specialist_exam": { "available": true, "score": 0.3705514209458427, "mae_points": 4.9638152794908645, "evidence": 1.0, "exam": "held-out latent coalition factors" }, "final_quality": 0.2926337421975412, "final_evidence": 1.0, "residual_mae_points": 5.5194059849725114 }, "batchbias": { "short_path_quality": 0.49451026475286897, "short_path_evidence": 0.35144885730913816, "maturation_quality": 0.37398107276058357, "maturation_evidence": 0.501359732061591, "specialist_exam": { "available": true, "score": 0.18341567350639373, "mae_points": 9.328001441192093, "evidence": 0.37665726543829686, "exam": "prior-batch residual validation" }, "final_quality": 0.3891476654023228, "final_evidence": 0.6891762118206919, "residual_mae_points": 8.151088001290569 } }, "completion_referee": { "available": true, "span_snapshots": 9, "windows": [ { "from_snapshot": 12, "from_filename": "12.json", "to_snapshot": 21, "to_filename": "21.json", "span_snapshots": 9, "matured_votes": 180596, "matured_counties": 11, "correction_votes": 0, "predictions": { "v0": { "available": true, "mae_points": 9.418701527230363, "counties_scored": 11, "counties_skipped_noninformative": 0, "informative_votes": 180596.0, "informative_vote_coverage": 1.0, "county_examples": [ { "cid": "fips:26125", "county": "Oakland", "new_votes": 142424, "reporting_advance_points": 60.38, "source": "statewide live scoreboard", "geography_level": "statewide", "effective_sample_votes": 74171, "expected_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 62.678135659489556, "Haley Stevens": 34.024079491984736, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.297784848525704 }, "actual_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 47.67595349098466, "Haley Stevens": 49.67280795371566, "Mallory McMorrow": 2.6512385552996687 }, "mae_points": 10.432485641153951 }, { "cid": "fips:26099", "county": "Macomb", "new_votes": 8532, "reporting_advance_points": 7.399999999999999, "source": "statewide live scoreboard", "geography_level": "statewide", "effective_sample_votes": 74171, "expected_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 62.678135659489556, "Haley Stevens": 34.024079491984736, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.297784848525704 }, "actual_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 53.17627754336615, "Haley Stevens": 43.459915611814345, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.363806844819503 }, "mae_points": 6.334572077415605 }, { "cid": "fips:26161", "county": "Washtenaw", "new_votes": 8116, "reporting_advance_points": 8.939999999999992, "source": "statewide live scoreboard", "geography_level": "statewide", "effective_sample_votes": 74171, "expected_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 62.678135659489556, "Haley Stevens": 34.024079491984736, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.297784848525704 }, "actual_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 62.51848201084278, "Haley Stevens": 34.36421882700838, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.1172991621488415 }, "mae_points": 0.2267595566824262 }, { "cid": "fips:26093", "county": "Livingston", "new_votes": 7895, "reporting_advance_points": 33.32999999999999, "source": "statewide live scoreboard", "geography_level": "statewide", "effective_sample_votes": 74171, "expected_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 62.678135659489556, "Haley Stevens": 34.024079491984736, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.297784848525704 }, "actual_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 48.777707409753006, "Haley Stevens": 47.66307789740342, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.559214692843572 }, "mae_points": 9.266952166491032 }, { "cid": "fips:26163", "county": "Wayne", "new_votes": 4352, "reporting_advance_points": 1.43, "source": "statewide live scoreboard", "geography_level": "statewide", "effective_sample_votes": 74171, "expected_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 62.678135659489556, "Haley Stevens": 34.024079491984736, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.297784848525704 }, "actual_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 46.25459558823529, "Haley Stevens": 51.01102941176471, "Mallory McMorrow": 2.734375 }, "mae_points": 11.324633279853312 }, { "cid": "fips:26149", "county": "St. Joseph", "new_votes": 4028, "reporting_advance_points": 96.71, "source": "statewide live scoreboard", "geography_level": "statewide", "effective_sample_votes": 74171, "expected_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 62.678135659489556, "Haley Stevens": 34.024079491984736, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.297784848525704 }, "actual_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 46.32571996027806, "Haley Stevens": 47.96425024826216, "Mallory McMorrow": 5.710029791459782 }, "mae_points": 10.901610466141 }, { "cid": "fips:26045", "county": "Eaton", "new_votes": 2299, "reporting_advance_points": 14.06, "source": "statewide live scoreboard", "geography_level": "statewide", "effective_sample_votes": 74171, "expected_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 62.678135659489556, "Haley Stevens": 34.024079491984736, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.297784848525704 }, "actual_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 43.01870378425402, "Haley Stevens": 50.84819486733362, "Mallory McMorrow": 6.133101348412353 }, "mae_points": 13.106287916823685 }, { "cid": "fips:26041", "county": "Delta", "new_votes": 1299, "reporting_advance_points": 31.46, "source": "statewide live scoreboard", "geography_level": "statewide", "effective_sample_votes": 74171, "expected_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 62.678135659489556, "Haley Stevens": 34.024079491984736, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.297784848525704 }, "actual_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 47.57505773672055, "Haley Stevens": 44.80369515011547, "Mallory McMorrow": 7.621247113163972 }, "mae_points": 10.068718615179334 }, { "cid": "fips:26069", "county": "Iosco", "new_votes": 908, "reporting_advance_points": 29.439999999999998, "source": "statewide live scoreboard", "geography_level": "statewide", "effective_sample_votes": 74171, "expected_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 62.678135659489556, "Haley Stevens": 34.024079491984736, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.297784848525704 }, "actual_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 37.44493392070485, "Haley Stevens": 54.40528634361234, "Mallory McMorrow": 8.149779735682818 }, "mae_points": 16.82213449252314 }, { "cid": "fips:26123", "county": "Newaygo", "new_votes": 474, "reporting_advance_points": 11.7, "source": "statewide live scoreboard", "geography_level": "statewide", "effective_sample_votes": 74171, "expected_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 62.678135659489556, "Haley Stevens": 34.024079491984736, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.297784848525704 }, "actual_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 38.607594936708864, "Haley Stevens": 56.118143459915615, "Mallory McMorrow": 5.274261603375527 }, "mae_points": 16.047027148520463 }, { "cid": "fips:26079", "county": "Kalkaska", "new_votes": 269, "reporting_advance_points": 16.32, "source": "statewide live scoreboard", "geography_level": "statewide", "effective_sample_votes": 74171, "expected_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 62.678135659489556, "Haley Stevens": 34.024079491984736, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.297784848525704 }, "actual_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 51.301115241635685, "Haley Stevens": 45.353159851301115, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.3457249070631967 }, "mae_points": 7.584680278569246 } ] }, "v1": { "available": true, "mae_points": 5.853495235349322, "counties_scored": 6, "counties_skipped_noninformative": 5, "informative_votes": 32493.0, "informative_vote_coverage": 0.17992092848125096, "county_examples": [ { "cid": "fips:26099", "county": "Macomb", "new_votes": 8532, "reporting_advance_points": 7.399999999999999, "source": "county live share", "geography_level": "county", "effective_sample_votes": 2925, "expected_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 61.36752136752137, "Haley Stevens": 36.51282051282052, "Mallory McMorrow": 2.1196581196581197 }, "actual_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 53.17627754336615, "Haley Stevens": 43.459915611814345, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.363806844819503 }, "mae_points": 5.46082921610348 }, { "cid": "fips:26161", "county": "Washtenaw", "new_votes": 8116, "reporting_advance_points": 8.939999999999992, "source": "county live share", "geography_level": "county", "effective_sample_votes": 39944, "expected_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 68.01021430002004, "Haley Stevens": 29.99198878429802, "Mallory McMorrow": 1.9977969156819548 }, "actual_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 62.51848201084278, "Haley Stevens": 34.36421882700838, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.1172991621488415 }, "mae_points": 3.661154859451501 }, { "cid": "fips:26093", "county": "Livingston", "new_votes": 7895, "reporting_advance_points": 33.32999999999999, "source": "county live share", "geography_level": "county", "effective_sample_votes": 6305, "expected_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 61.427438540840605, "Haley Stevens": 35.590800951625695, "Mallory McMorrow": 2.9817605075337035 }, "actual_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 48.777707409753006, "Haley Stevens": 47.66307789740342, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.559214692843572 }, "mae_points": 8.433154087391731 }, { "cid": "fips:26163", "county": "Wayne", "new_votes": 4352, "reporting_advance_points": 1.43, "source": "county live share", "geography_level": "county", "effective_sample_votes": 316, "expected_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 55.69620253164557, "Haley Stevens": 41.77215189873418, "Mallory McMorrow": 2.5316455696202533 }, "actual_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 46.25459558823529, "Haley Stevens": 51.01102941176471, "Mallory McMorrow": 2.734375 }, "mae_points": 6.294404628940184 }, { "cid": "fips:26045", "county": "Eaton", "new_votes": 2299, "reporting_advance_points": 14.06, "source": "county live share", "geography_level": "county", "effective_sample_votes": 7828, "expected_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 54.29228410832907, "Haley Stevens": 40.77669902912621, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.931016862544711 }, "actual_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 43.01870378425402, "Haley Stevens": 50.84819486733362, "Mallory McMorrow": 6.133101348412353 }, "mae_points": 7.51572021605003 }, { "cid": "fips:26041", "county": "Delta", "new_votes": 1299, "reporting_advance_points": 31.46, "source": "county live share", "geography_level": "county", "effective_sample_votes": 674, "expected_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 42.87833827893175, "Haley Stevens": 45.25222551928783, "Mallory McMorrow": 11.869436201780417 }, "actual_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 47.57505773672055, "Haley Stevens": 44.80369515011547, "Mallory McMorrow": 7.621247113163972 }, "mae_points": 3.1311463051925372 } ] }, "v3": { "available": true, "mae_points": 9.177401507096617, "counties_scored": 11, "counties_skipped_noninformative": 0, "informative_votes": 180596.0, "informative_vote_coverage": 1.0, "county_examples": [ { "cid": "fips:26125", "county": "Oakland", "new_votes": 142424, "reporting_advance_points": 60.38, "source": "v3 county remaining-vote prediction", "geography_level": "county", "effective_sample_votes": 0, "expected_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 62.678135659489556, "Haley Stevens": 34.024079491984736, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.297784848525704 }, "actual_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 47.67595349098466, "Haley Stevens": 49.67280795371566, "Mallory McMorrow": 2.6512385552996687 }, "mae_points": 10.432485641153951 }, { "cid": "fips:26099", "county": "Macomb", "new_votes": 8532, "reporting_advance_points": 7.399999999999999, "source": "v3 county remaining-vote prediction", "geography_level": "county", "effective_sample_votes": 2925, "expected_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 62.46925811285826, "Haley Stevens": 34.42071954224099, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.11002234490074 }, "actual_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 53.17627754336615, "Haley Stevens": 43.459915611814345, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.363806844819503 }, "mae_points": 6.195320379661412 }, { "cid": "fips:26161", "county": "Washtenaw", "new_votes": 8116, "reporting_advance_points": 8.939999999999992, "source": "v3 county remaining-vote prediction", "geography_level": "county", "effective_sample_votes": 39944, "expected_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 66.21624205634384, "Haley Stevens": 31.34858145691753, "Mallory McMorrow": 2.4351764867386287 }, "actual_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 62.51848201084278, "Haley Stevens": 34.36421882700838, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.1172991621488415 }, "mae_points": 2.4651733636673763 }, { "cid": "fips:26093", "county": "Livingston", "new_votes": 7895, "reporting_advance_points": 33.32999999999999, "source": "v3 county remaining-vote prediction", "geography_level": "county", "effective_sample_votes": 6305, "expected_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 62.032965032834085, "Haley Stevens": 34.83227090047142, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.1347640666944976 }, "actual_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 48.777707409753006, "Haley Stevens": 47.66307789740342, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.559214692843572 }, "mae_points": 8.836838415387387 }, { "cid": "fips:26163", "county": "Wayne", "new_votes": 4352, "reporting_advance_points": 1.43, "source": "v3 county remaining-vote prediction", "geography_level": "county", "effective_sample_votes": 316, "expected_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 62.45734754793985, "Haley Stevens": 34.26909505479705, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.2735573972631022 }, "actual_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 46.25459558823529, "Haley Stevens": 51.01102941176471, "Mallory McMorrow": 2.734375 }, "mae_points": 11.161289571311773 }, { "cid": "fips:26149", "county": "St. Joseph", "new_votes": 4028, "reporting_advance_points": 96.71, "source": "v3 county remaining-vote prediction", "geography_level": "county", "effective_sample_votes": 0, "expected_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 62.678135659489556, "Haley Stevens": 34.024079491984736, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.297784848525704 }, "actual_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 46.32571996027806, "Haley Stevens": 47.96425024826216, "Mallory McMorrow": 5.710029791459782 }, "mae_points": 10.901610466141 }, { "cid": "fips:26045", "county": "Eaton", "new_votes": 2299, "reporting_advance_points": 14.06, "source": "v3 county remaining-vote prediction", "geography_level": "county", "effective_sample_votes": 7828, "expected_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 56.87672621991757, "Haley Stevens": 38.69560396217281, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.427669817909622 }, "actual_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 43.01870378425402, "Haley Stevens": 50.84819486733362, "Mallory McMorrow": 6.133101348412353 }, "mae_points": 9.238681623775696 }, { "cid": "fips:26041", "county": "Delta", "new_votes": 1299, "reporting_advance_points": 31.46, "source": "v3 county remaining-vote prediction", "geography_level": "county", "effective_sample_votes": 674, "expected_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 54.679409602549065, "Haley Stevens": 38.56002814204067, "Mallory McMorrow": 6.760562255410261 }, "actual_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 47.57505773672055, "Haley Stevens": 44.80369515011547, "Mallory McMorrow": 7.621247113163972 }, "mae_points": 4.736234577219009 }, { "cid": "fips:26069", "county": "Iosco", "new_votes": 908, "reporting_advance_points": 29.439999999999998, "source": "v3 county remaining-vote prediction", "geography_level": "county", "effective_sample_votes": 0, "expected_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 62.678135659489556, "Haley Stevens": 34.024079491984736, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.297784848525704 }, "actual_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 37.44493392070485, "Haley Stevens": 54.40528634361234, "Mallory McMorrow": 8.149779735682818 }, "mae_points": 16.82213449252314 }, { "cid": "fips:26123", "county": "Newaygo", "new_votes": 474, "reporting_advance_points": 11.7, "source": "v3 county remaining-vote prediction", "geography_level": "county", "effective_sample_votes": 0, "expected_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 62.678135659489556, "Haley Stevens": 34.024079491984736, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.297784848525704 }, "actual_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 38.607594936708864, "Haley Stevens": 56.118143459915615, "Mallory McMorrow": 5.274261603375527 }, "mae_points": 16.047027148520463 }, { "cid": "fips:26079", "county": "Kalkaska", "new_votes": 269, "reporting_advance_points": 16.32, "source": "v3 county remaining-vote prediction", "geography_level": "county", "effective_sample_votes": 0, "expected_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 62.678135659489556, "Haley Stevens": 34.024079491984736, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.297784848525704 }, "actual_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 51.301115241635685, "Haley Stevens": 45.353159851301115, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.3457249070631967 }, "mae_points": 7.584680278569246 } ] }, "market": { "available": false, "counties_scored": 0, "counties_skipped_noninformative": 11, "informative_vote_coverage": 0.0 }, "histgeo": { "available": true, "mae_points": 9.012792507263468, "counties_scored": 11, "counties_skipped_noninformative": 0, "informative_votes": 180596.0, "informative_vote_coverage": 1.0, "county_examples": [ { "cid": "fips:26125", "county": "Oakland", "new_votes": 142424, "reporting_advance_points": 60.38, "source": "histgeo county remaining-vote prediction", "geography_level": "county", "effective_sample_votes": 0, "expected_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 62.35471810455508, "Haley Stevens": 34.25283336425182, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.3924485311930854 }, "actual_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 47.67595349098466, "Haley Stevens": 49.67280795371566, "Mallory McMorrow": 2.6512385552996687 }, "mae_points": 10.279983059642559 }, { "cid": "fips:26099", "county": "Macomb", "new_votes": 8532, "reporting_advance_points": 7.399999999999999, "source": "histgeo county remaining-vote prediction", "geography_level": "county", "effective_sample_votes": 2925, "expected_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 62.200959224882105, "Haley Stevens": 34.60536316370311, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.1936776114147887 }, "actual_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 53.17627754336615, "Haley Stevens": 43.459915611814345, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.363806844819503 }, "mae_points": 6.016454454343969 }, { "cid": "fips:26161", "county": "Washtenaw", "new_votes": 8116, "reporting_advance_points": 8.939999999999992, "source": "histgeo county remaining-vote prediction", "geography_level": "county", "effective_sample_votes": 39944, "expected_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 66.27330881959946, "Haley Stevens": 31.30537931619724, "Mallory McMorrow": 2.4213118642033016 }, "actual_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 62.51848201084278, "Haley Stevens": 34.36421882700838, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.1172991621488415 }, "mae_points": 2.5032178725044543 }, { "cid": "fips:26093", "county": "Livingston", "new_votes": 7895, "reporting_advance_points": 33.32999999999999, "source": "histgeo county remaining-vote prediction", "geography_level": "county", "effective_sample_votes": 6305, "expected_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 61.8791828370274, "Haley Stevens": 34.94560409386152, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.1752130691110816 }, "actual_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 48.777707409753006, "Haley Stevens": 47.66307789740342, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.559214692843572 }, "mae_points": 8.734316951516263 }, { "cid": "fips:26163", "county": "Wayne", "new_votes": 4352, "reporting_advance_points": 1.43, "source": "histgeo county remaining-vote prediction", "geography_level": "county", "effective_sample_votes": 316, "expected_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 62.19109946086977, "Haley Stevens": 34.4275448553038, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.3813556838264347 }, "actual_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 46.25459558823529, "Haley Stevens": 51.01102941176471, "Mallory McMorrow": 2.734375 }, "mae_points": 11.055656370973942 }, { "cid": "fips:26149", "county": "St. Joseph", "new_votes": 4028, "reporting_advance_points": 96.71, "source": "histgeo county remaining-vote prediction", "geography_level": "county", "effective_sample_votes": 0, "expected_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 62.19339258623019, "Haley Stevens": 34.351602266784745, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.4550051469850676 }, "actual_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 46.32571996027806, "Haley Stevens": 47.96425024826216, "Mallory McMorrow": 5.710029791459782 }, "mae_points": 10.578448417301422 }, { "cid": "fips:26045", "county": "Eaton", "new_votes": 2299, "reporting_advance_points": 14.06, "source": "histgeo county remaining-vote prediction", "geography_level": "county", "effective_sample_votes": 7828, "expected_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 56.685762821702156, "Haley Stevens": 38.82997529019242, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.484261888105426 }, "actual_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 43.01870378425402, "Haley Stevens": 50.84819486733362, "Mallory McMorrow": 6.133101348412353 }, "mae_points": 9.111372691632086 }, { "cid": "fips:26041", "county": "Delta", "new_votes": 1299, "reporting_advance_points": 31.46, "source": "histgeo county remaining-vote prediction", "geography_level": "county", "effective_sample_votes": 674, "expected_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 54.188978788271456, "Haley Stevens": 38.89258385695521, "Mallory McMorrow": 6.918437354773332 }, "actual_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 47.57505773672055, "Haley Stevens": 44.80369515011547, "Mallory McMorrow": 7.621247113163972 }, "mae_points": 4.409280701033933 }, { "cid": "fips:26069", "county": "Iosco", "new_votes": 908, "reporting_advance_points": 29.439999999999998, "source": "histgeo county remaining-vote prediction", "geography_level": "county", "effective_sample_votes": 0, "expected_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 61.91489696305654, "Haley Stevens": 34.560508238946184, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.52459479799727 }, "actual_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 37.44493392070485, "Haley Stevens": 54.40528634361234, "Mallory McMorrow": 8.149779735682818 }, "mae_points": 16.31330869490113 }, { "cid": "fips:26123", "county": "Newaygo", "new_votes": 474, "reporting_advance_points": 11.7, "source": "histgeo county remaining-vote prediction", "geography_level": "county", "effective_sample_votes": 0, "expected_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 62.13265376607393, "Haley Stevens": 34.397604613511795, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.4697416204142724 }, "actual_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 38.607594936708864, "Haley Stevens": 56.118143459915615, "Mallory McMorrow": 5.274261603375527 }, "mae_points": 15.683372552910049 }, { "cid": "fips:26079", "county": "Kalkaska", "new_votes": 269, "reporting_advance_points": 16.32, "source": "histgeo county remaining-vote prediction", "geography_level": "county", "effective_sample_votes": 0, "expected_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 62.14034708726275, "Haley Stevens": 34.401186399499565, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.45846651323768 }, "actual_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 51.301115241635685, "Haley Stevens": 45.353159851301115, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.3457249070631967 }, "mae_points": 7.301315634534365 } ] }, "latent": { "available": true, "mae_points": 8.962112876990844, "counties_scored": 11, "counties_skipped_noninformative": 0, "informative_votes": 180596.0, "informative_vote_coverage": 1.0, "county_examples": [ { "cid": "fips:26125", "county": "Oakland", "new_votes": 142424, "reporting_advance_points": 60.38, "source": "latent county remaining-vote prediction", "geography_level": "county", "effective_sample_votes": 0, "expected_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 62.18755472934843, "Haley Stevens": 34.352415187583894, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.460030083067678 }, "actual_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 47.67595349098466, "Haley Stevens": 49.67280795371566, "Mallory McMorrow": 2.6512385552996687 }, "mae_points": 10.213595177421182 }, { "cid": "fips:26099", "county": "Macomb", "new_votes": 8532, "reporting_advance_points": 7.399999999999999, "source": "latent county remaining-vote prediction", "geography_level": "county", "effective_sample_votes": 2925, "expected_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 62.06050274805214, "Haley Stevens": 34.69396389917067, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.2455333527771995 }, "actual_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 53.17627754336615, "Haley Stevens": 43.459915611814345, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.363806844819503 }, "mae_points": 5.9228168031239905 }, { "cid": "fips:26161", "county": "Washtenaw", "new_votes": 8116, "reporting_advance_points": 8.939999999999992, "source": "latent county remaining-vote prediction", "geography_level": "county", "effective_sample_votes": 39944, "expected_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 66.06468496547436, "Haley Stevens": 31.448802156272727, "Mallory McMorrow": 2.4865128782529236 }, "actual_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 62.51848201084278, "Haley Stevens": 34.36421882700838, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.1172991621488415 }, "mae_points": 2.364135303087715 }, { "cid": "fips:26093", "county": "Livingston", "new_votes": 7895, "reporting_advance_points": 33.32999999999999, "source": "latent county remaining-vote prediction", "geography_level": "county", "effective_sample_votes": 6305, "expected_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 61.78760378386949, "Haley Stevens": 34.997191373038916, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.2152048430915916 }, "actual_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 48.777707409753006, "Haley Stevens": 47.66307789740342, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.559214692843572 }, "mae_points": 8.673264249410991 }, { "cid": "fips:26163", "county": "Wayne", "new_votes": 4352, "reporting_advance_points": 1.43, "source": "latent county remaining-vote prediction", "geography_level": "county", "effective_sample_votes": 316, "expected_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 62.01211492363002, "Haley Stevens": 34.56439828659853, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.423486789771453 }, "actual_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 46.25459558823529, "Haley Stevens": 51.01102941176471, "Mallory McMorrow": 2.734375 }, "mae_points": 10.964420750110786 }, { "cid": "fips:26149", "county": "St. Joseph", "new_votes": 4028, "reporting_advance_points": 96.71, "source": "latent county remaining-vote prediction", "geography_level": "county", "effective_sample_votes": 0, "expected_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 62.18533944577723, "Haley Stevens": 34.35409695784562, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.4605635963771504 }, "actual_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 46.32571996027806, "Haley Stevens": 47.96425024826216, "Mallory McMorrow": 5.710029791459782 }, "mae_points": 10.57307965699945 }, { "cid": "fips:26045", "county": "Eaton", "new_votes": 2299, "reporting_advance_points": 14.06, "source": "latent county remaining-vote prediction", "geography_level": "county", "effective_sample_votes": 7828, "expected_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 56.716288061151424, "Haley Stevens": 38.80381298094454, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.479898957904034 }, "actual_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 43.01870378425402, "Haley Stevens": 50.84819486733362, "Mallory McMorrow": 6.133101348412353 }, "mae_points": 9.13172285126493 }, { "cid": "fips:26041", "county": "Delta", "new_votes": 1299, "reporting_advance_points": 31.46, "source": "latent county remaining-vote prediction", "geography_level": "county", "effective_sample_votes": 674, "expected_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 54.37532622680563, "Haley Stevens": 38.76459542753074, "Mallory McMorrow": 6.8600783456636325 }, "actual_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 47.57505773672055, "Haley Stevens": 44.80369515011547, "Mallory McMorrow": 7.621247113163972 }, "mae_points": 4.533512326723382 }, { "cid": "fips:26069", "county": "Iosco", "new_votes": 908, "reporting_advance_points": 29.439999999999998, "source": "latent county remaining-vote prediction", "geography_level": "county", "effective_sample_votes": 0, "expected_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 62.14838440322886, "Haley Stevens": 34.38215200794697, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.4694635888241634 }, "actual_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 37.44493392070485, "Haley Stevens": 54.40528634361234, "Mallory McMorrow": 8.149779735682818 }, "mae_points": 16.468966988349347 }, { "cid": "fips:26123", "county": "Newaygo", "new_votes": 474, "reporting_advance_points": 11.7, "source": "latent county remaining-vote prediction", "geography_level": "county", "effective_sample_votes": 0, "expected_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 62.173681194318696, "Haley Stevens": 34.362947518045495, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.4633712876358045 }, "actual_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 38.607594936708864, "Haley Stevens": 56.118143459915615, "Mallory McMorrow": 5.274261603375527 }, "mae_points": 15.710724171739892 }, { "cid": "fips:26079", "county": "Kalkaska", "new_votes": 269, "reporting_advance_points": 16.32, "source": "latent county remaining-vote prediction", "geography_level": "county", "effective_sample_votes": 0, "expected_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 62.169707703264734, "Haley Stevens": 34.36596406146985, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.4643282352654086 }, "actual_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 51.301115241635685, "Haley Stevens": 45.353159851301115, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.3457249070631967 }, "mae_points": 7.324797193220839 } ] }, "batchbias": { "available": true, "mae_points": 6.253714117332525, "counties_scored": 2, "counties_skipped_noninformative": 9, "informative_votes": 10831.0, "informative_vote_coverage": 0.05997364282708366, "county_examples": [ { "cid": "fips:26099", "county": "Macomb", "new_votes": 8532, "reporting_advance_points": 7.399999999999999, "source": "batchbias county remaining-vote prediction", "geography_level": "county", "effective_sample_votes": 2925, "expected_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 63.23432884395004, "Haley Stevens": 33.568608961043196, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.1970621950067715 }, "actual_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 53.17627754336615, "Haley Stevens": 43.459915611814345, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.363806844819503 }, "mae_points": 6.705367533722592 }, { "cid": "fips:26045", "county": "Eaton", "new_votes": 2299, "reporting_advance_points": 14.06, "source": "batchbias county remaining-vote prediction", "geography_level": "county", "effective_sample_votes": 7828, "expected_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 50.9858659612728, "Haley Stevens": 43.47195049553021, "Mallory McMorrow": 5.542183543196992 }, "actual_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 43.01870378425402, "Haley Stevens": 50.84819486733362, "Mallory McMorrow": 6.133101348412353 }, "mae_points": 5.311441451345849 } ] } } }, { "from_snapshot": 21, "from_filename": "21.json", "to_snapshot": 30, "to_filename": "30.json", "span_snapshots": 9, "matured_votes": 65710, "matured_counties": 22, "correction_votes": 0, "predictions": { "v0": { "available": true, "mae_points": 5.231705231910092, "counties_scored": 22, "counties_skipped_noninformative": 0, "informative_votes": 65710.0, "informative_vote_coverage": 1.0, "county_examples": [ { "cid": "fips:26125", "county": "Oakland", "new_votes": 23701, "reporting_advance_points": 6.620000000000004, "source": "statewide live scoreboard", "geography_level": "statewide", "effective_sample_votes": 257355, "expected_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 52.60282489168658, "Haley Stevens": 44.33642245147753, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.060752656835888 }, "actual_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 48.20049786928821, "Haley Stevens": 49.07809797054977, "Mallory McMorrow": 2.7214041601620185 }, "mae_points": 3.161117012714824 }, { "cid": "fips:26161", "county": "Washtenaw", "new_votes": 10867, "reporting_advance_points": 11.980000000000013, "source": "statewide live scoreboard", "geography_level": "statewide", "effective_sample_votes": 257355, "expected_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 52.60282489168658, "Haley Stevens": 44.33642245147753, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.060752656835888 }, "actual_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 50.87880739854606, "Haley Stevens": 41.53860311033404, "Mallory McMorrow": 7.582589491119903 }, "mae_points": 3.0145578895226786 }, { "cid": "fips:26099", "county": "Macomb", "new_votes": 4908, "reporting_advance_points": 4.26, "source": "statewide live scoreboard", "geography_level": "statewide", "effective_sample_votes": 257355, "expected_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 52.60282489168658, "Haley Stevens": 44.33642245147753, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.060752656835888 }, "actual_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 60.411572942135294, "Haley Stevens": 37.286063569682156, "Mallory McMorrow": 2.302363488182559 }, "mae_points": 5.205832033632472 }, { "cid": "fips:26093", "county": "Livingston", "new_votes": 4600, "reporting_advance_points": 10.680000000000012, "source": "statewide live scoreboard", "geography_level": "statewide", "effective_sample_votes": 257355, "expected_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 52.60282489168658, "Haley Stevens": 44.33642245147753, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.060752656835888 }, "actual_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 39.108695652173914, "Haley Stevens": 55.02173913043479, "Mallory McMorrow": 5.869565217391305 }, "mae_points": 8.996086159675116 }, { "cid": "fips:26067", "county": "Ionia", "new_votes": 4029, "reporting_advance_points": 83.69, "source": "statewide live scoreboard", "geography_level": "statewide", "effective_sample_votes": 257355, "expected_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 52.60282489168658, "Haley Stevens": 44.33642245147753, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.060752656835888 }, "actual_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 46.51278232812112, "Haley Stevens": 49.640109208240254, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.8471084636386204 }, "mae_points": 4.060028375710307 }, { "cid": "fips:26045", "county": "Eaton", "new_votes": 3567, "reporting_advance_points": 21.810000000000006, "source": "statewide live scoreboard", "geography_level": "statewide", "effective_sample_votes": 257355, "expected_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 52.60282489168658, "Haley Stevens": 44.33642245147753, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.060752656835888 }, "actual_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 39.977572189515, "Haley Stevens": 52.7614241659658, "Mallory McMorrow": 7.261003644519204 }, "mae_points": 8.416835134781058 }, { "cid": "fips:26163", "county": "Wayne", "new_votes": 2715, "reporting_advance_points": 0.9000000000000001, "source": "statewide live scoreboard", "geography_level": "statewide", "effective_sample_votes": 257355, "expected_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 52.60282489168658, "Haley Stevens": 44.33642245147753, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.060752656835888 }, "actual_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 40.0, "Haley Stevens": 56.86924493554327, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.1307550644567224 }, "mae_points": 8.401883261124386 }, { "cid": "fips:26069", "county": "Iosco", "new_votes": 2117, "reporting_advance_points": 44.879999999999995, "source": "statewide live scoreboard", "geography_level": "statewide", "effective_sample_votes": 257355, "expected_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 52.60282489168658, "Haley Stevens": 44.33642245147753, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.060752656835888 }, "actual_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 38.73405762871989, "Haley Stevens": 56.825696740670764, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.440245630609352 }, "mae_points": 9.245844841977798 }, { "cid": "fips:26033", "county": "Chippewa", "new_votes": 1541, "reporting_advance_points": 43.36, "source": "statewide live scoreboard", "geography_level": "statewide", "effective_sample_votes": 257355, "expected_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 52.60282489168658, "Haley Stevens": 44.33642245147753, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.060752656835888 }, "actual_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 49.513303049967554, "Haley Stevens": 43.413367942894226, "Mallory McMorrow": 7.073329007138223 }, "mae_points": 2.6750509002015557 }, { "cid": "fips:26139", "county": "Ottawa", "new_votes": 1351, "reporting_advance_points": 5.41, "source": "statewide live scoreboard", "geography_level": "statewide", "effective_sample_votes": 257355, "expected_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 52.60282489168658, "Haley Stevens": 44.33642245147753, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.060752656835888 }, "actual_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 52.405625462620286, "Haley Stevens": 42.635085122131755, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.959289415247965 }, "mae_points": 1.2656911722747166 }, { "cid": "fips:26027", "county": "Cass", "new_votes": 743, "reporting_advance_points": 23.08, "source": "statewide live scoreboard", "geography_level": "statewide", "effective_sample_votes": 257355, "expected_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 52.60282489168658, "Haley Stevens": 44.33642245147753, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.060752656835888 }, "actual_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 38.22341857335128, "Haley Stevens": 52.35531628532974, "Mallory McMorrow": 9.421265141318976 }, "mae_points": 9.586270878890202 }, { "cid": "fips:26041", "county": "Delta", "new_votes": 735, "reporting_advance_points": 9.229999999999993, "source": "statewide live scoreboard", "geography_level": "statewide", "effective_sample_votes": 257355, "expected_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 52.60282489168658, "Haley Stevens": 44.33642245147753, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.060752656835888 }, "actual_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 45.714285714285715, "Haley Stevens": 45.30612244897959, "Mallory McMorrow": 8.979591836734693 }, "mae_points": 4.592359451600578 } ] }, "v1": { "available": true, "mae_points": 5.391697393939039, "counties_scored": 9, "counties_skipped_noninformative": 13, "informative_votes": 53953.0, "informative_vote_coverage": 0.8210774615735809, "county_examples": [ { "cid": "fips:26125", "county": "Oakland", "new_votes": 23701, "reporting_advance_points": 6.620000000000004, "source": "county live share", "geography_level": "county", "effective_sample_votes": 142424, "expected_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 47.67595349098466, "Haley Stevens": 49.67280795371566, "Mallory McMorrow": 2.6512385552996687 }, "actual_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 48.20049786928821, "Haley Stevens": 49.07809797054977, "Mallory McMorrow": 2.7214041601620185 }, "mae_points": 0.39647332211060055 }, { "cid": "fips:26161", "county": "Washtenaw", "new_votes": 10867, "reporting_advance_points": 11.980000000000013, "source": "county live share", "geography_level": "county", "effective_sample_votes": 48060, "expected_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 67.08281315022889, "Haley Stevens": 30.730337078651687, "Mallory McMorrow": 2.186849771119434 }, "actual_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 50.87880739854606, "Haley Stevens": 41.53860311033404, "Mallory McMorrow": 7.582589491119903 }, "mae_points": 10.802670501121883 }, { "cid": "fips:26099", "county": "Macomb", "new_votes": 4908, "reporting_advance_points": 4.26, "source": "county live share", "geography_level": "county", "effective_sample_votes": 11457, "expected_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 55.26752203892816, "Haley Stevens": 41.686305315527626, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.0461726455442086 }, "actual_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 60.411572942135294, "Haley Stevens": 37.286063569682156, "Mallory McMorrow": 2.302363488182559 }, "mae_points": 3.4293672688047514 }, { "cid": "fips:26093", "county": "Livingston", "new_votes": 4600, "reporting_advance_points": 10.680000000000012, "source": "county live share", "geography_level": "county", "effective_sample_votes": 14200, "expected_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 54.394366197183096, "Haley Stevens": 42.302816901408455, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.302816901408451 }, "actual_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 39.108695652173914, "Haley Stevens": 55.02173913043479, "Mallory McMorrow": 5.869565217391305 }, "mae_points": 10.190447030006125 }, { "cid": "fips:26045", "county": "Eaton", "new_votes": 3567, "reporting_advance_points": 21.810000000000006, "source": "county live share", "geography_level": "county", "effective_sample_votes": 10127, "expected_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 51.732991014120664, "Haley Stevens": 43.0630986471808, "Mallory McMorrow": 5.203910338698528 }, "actual_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 39.977572189515, "Haley Stevens": 52.7614241659658, "Mallory McMorrow": 7.261003644519204 }, "mae_points": 7.836945883070447 }, { "cid": "fips:26163", "county": "Wayne", "new_votes": 2715, "reporting_advance_points": 0.9000000000000001, "source": "county live share", "geography_level": "county", "effective_sample_votes": 4668, "expected_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 46.89374464438732, "Haley Stevens": 50.38560411311054, "Mallory McMorrow": 2.720651242502142 }, "actual_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 40.0, "Haley Stevens": 56.86924493554327, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.1307550644567224 }, "mae_points": 4.595829762924877 }, { "cid": "fips:26069", "county": "Iosco", "new_votes": 2117, "reporting_advance_points": 44.879999999999995, "source": "county live share", "geography_level": "county", "effective_sample_votes": 908, "expected_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 37.44493392070485, "Haley Stevens": 54.40528634361234, "Mallory McMorrow": 8.149779735682818 }, "actual_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 38.73405762871989, "Haley Stevens": 56.825696740670764, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.440245630609352 }, "mae_points": 2.473022736715644 }, { "cid": "fips:26027", "county": "Cass", "new_votes": 743, "reporting_advance_points": 23.08, "source": "county live share", "geography_level": "county", "effective_sample_votes": 173, "expected_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 56.64739884393064, "Haley Stevens": 35.83815028901734, "Mallory McMorrow": 7.514450867052023 }, "actual_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 38.22341857335128, "Haley Stevens": 52.35531628532974, "Mallory McMorrow": 9.421265141318976 }, "mae_points": 12.282653513719573 }, { "cid": "fips:26041", "county": "Delta", "new_votes": 735, "reporting_advance_points": 9.229999999999993, "source": "county live share", "geography_level": "county", "effective_sample_votes": 1973, "expected_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 45.9706031424227, "Haley Stevens": 44.95691839837811, "Mallory McMorrow": 9.07247845919919 }, "actual_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 45.714285714285715, "Haley Stevens": 45.30612244897959, "Mallory McMorrow": 8.979591836734693 }, "mae_points": 0.23280270040099185 } ] }, "v3": { "available": true, "mae_points": 4.999770267836929, "counties_scored": 22, "counties_skipped_noninformative": 0, "informative_votes": 65710.0, "informative_vote_coverage": 1.0, "county_examples": [ { "cid": "fips:26125", "county": "Oakland", "new_votes": 23701, "reporting_advance_points": 6.620000000000004, "source": "v3 county remaining-vote prediction", "geography_level": "county", "effective_sample_votes": 142424, "expected_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 48.774420718369825, "Haley Stevens": 48.48303779124159, "Mallory McMorrow": 2.7425414903885628 }, "actual_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 48.20049786928821, "Haley Stevens": 49.07809797054977, "Mallory McMorrow": 2.7214041601620185 }, "mae_points": 0.3967067862054416 }, { "cid": "fips:26161", "county": "Washtenaw", "new_votes": 10867, "reporting_advance_points": 11.980000000000013, "source": "v3 county remaining-vote prediction", "geography_level": "county", "effective_sample_votes": 48060, "expected_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 63.14143157211625, "Haley Stevens": 34.433846589928194, "Mallory McMorrow": 2.4247218379555604 }, "actual_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 50.87880739854606, "Haley Stevens": 41.53860311033404, "Mallory McMorrow": 7.582589491119903 }, "mae_points": 8.175082782380127 }, { "cid": "fips:26099", "county": "Macomb", "new_votes": 4908, "reporting_advance_points": 4.26, "source": "v3 county remaining-vote prediction", "geography_level": "county", "effective_sample_votes": 11457, "expected_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 53.44294436064314, "Haley Stevens": 43.50089973429686, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.056155905060015 }, "actual_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 60.411572942135294, "Haley Stevens": 37.286063569682156, "Mallory McMorrow": 2.302363488182559 }, "mae_points": 4.645752387661436 }, { "cid": "fips:26093", "county": "Livingston", "new_votes": 4600, "reporting_advance_points": 10.680000000000012, "source": "v3 county remaining-vote prediction", "geography_level": "county", "effective_sample_votes": 14200, "expected_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 53.98985278521668, "Haley Stevens": 42.76198617488737, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.248161039895961 }, "actual_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 39.108695652173914, "Haley Stevens": 55.02173913043479, "Mallory McMorrow": 5.869565217391305 }, "mae_points": 9.920771422028508 }, { "cid": "fips:26067", "county": "Ionia", "new_votes": 4029, "reporting_advance_points": 83.69, "source": "v3 county remaining-vote prediction", "geography_level": "county", "effective_sample_votes": 0, "expected_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 52.60282489168658, "Haley Stevens": 44.33642245147753, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.060752656835888 }, "actual_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 46.51278232812112, "Haley Stevens": 49.640109208240254, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.8471084636386204 }, "mae_points": 4.060028375710307 }, { "cid": "fips:26045", "county": "Eaton", "new_votes": 3567, "reporting_advance_points": 21.810000000000006, "source": "v3 county remaining-vote prediction", "geography_level": "county", "effective_sample_votes": 10127, "expected_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 51.91835903026734, "Haley Stevens": 43.33445334329279, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.74718762643987 }, "actual_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 39.977572189515, "Haley Stevens": 52.7614241659658, "Mallory McMorrow": 7.261003644519204 }, "mae_points": 7.960524560501558 }, { "cid": "fips:26163", "county": "Wayne", "new_votes": 2715, "reporting_advance_points": 0.9000000000000001, "source": "v3 county remaining-vote prediction", "geography_level": "county", "effective_sample_votes": 4668, "expected_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 51.896650665144314, "Haley Stevens": 45.084664899661405, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.018684435194289 }, "actual_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 40.0, "Haley Stevens": 56.86924493554327, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.1307550644567224 }, "mae_points": 7.931100443429539 }, { "cid": "fips:26069", "county": "Iosco", "new_votes": 2117, "reporting_advance_points": 44.879999999999995, "source": "v3 county remaining-vote prediction", "geography_level": "county", "effective_sample_votes": 908, "expected_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 44.37835941861192, "Haley Stevens": 49.799651049208194, "Mallory McMorrow": 5.821989532179883 }, "actual_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 38.73405762871989, "Haley Stevens": 56.825696740670764, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.440245630609352 }, "mae_points": 4.684030460975045 }, { "cid": "fips:26033", "county": "Chippewa", "new_votes": 1541, "reporting_advance_points": 43.36, "source": "v3 county remaining-vote prediction", "geography_level": "county", "effective_sample_votes": 0, "expected_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 52.60282489168658, "Haley Stevens": 44.33642245147753, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.060752656835888 }, "actual_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 49.513303049967554, "Haley Stevens": 43.413367942894226, "Mallory McMorrow": 7.073329007138223 }, "mae_points": 2.675050900201556 }, { "cid": "fips:26139", "county": "Ottawa", "new_votes": 1351, "reporting_advance_points": 5.41, "source": "v3 county remaining-vote prediction", "geography_level": "county", "effective_sample_votes": 0, "expected_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 52.60282489168658, "Haley Stevens": 44.33642245147753, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.060752656835888 }, "actual_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 52.405625462620286, "Haley Stevens": 42.635085122131755, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.959289415247965 }, "mae_points": 1.2656911722747166 }, { "cid": "fips:26027", "county": "Cass", "new_votes": 743, "reporting_advance_points": 23.08, "source": "v3 county remaining-vote prediction", "geography_level": "county", "effective_sample_votes": 173, "expected_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 53.54008454783459, "Haley Stevens": 42.36709570930723, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.09281974285818 }, "actual_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 38.22341857335128, "Haley Stevens": 52.35531628532974, "Mallory McMorrow": 9.421265141318976 }, "mae_points": 10.21111064965554 }, { "cid": "fips:26041", "county": "Delta", "new_votes": 735, "reporting_advance_points": 9.229999999999993, "source": "v3 county remaining-vote prediction", "geography_level": "county", "effective_sample_votes": 1973, "expected_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 48.01842903668593, "Haley Stevens": 44.76532835278149, "Mallory McMorrow": 7.216242610532585 }, "actual_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 45.714285714285715, "Haley Stevens": 45.30612244897959, "Mallory McMorrow": 8.979591836734693 }, "mae_points": 1.5360955482668115 } ] }, "market": { "available": false, "counties_scored": 0, "counties_skipped_noninformative": 22, "informative_vote_coverage": 0.0 }, "histgeo": { "available": true, "mae_points": 4.920480237008607, "counties_scored": 22, "counties_skipped_noninformative": 0, "informative_votes": 65710.0, "informative_vote_coverage": 1.0, "county_examples": [ { "cid": "fips:26125", "county": "Oakland", "new_votes": 23701, "reporting_advance_points": 6.620000000000004, "source": "histgeo county remaining-vote prediction", "geography_level": "county", "effective_sample_votes": 142424, "expected_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 48.69347866887544, "Haley Stevens": 48.529839668247675, "Mallory McMorrow": 2.776681662876886 }, "actual_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 48.20049786928821, "Haley Stevens": 49.07809797054977, "Mallory McMorrow": 2.7214041601620185 }, "mae_points": 0.36550553486806187 }, { "cid": "fips:26161", "county": "Washtenaw", "new_votes": 10867, "reporting_advance_points": 11.980000000000013, "source": "histgeo county remaining-vote prediction", "geography_level": "county", "effective_sample_votes": 48060, "expected_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 63.60007913203789, "Haley Stevens": 34.00843811721857, "Mallory McMorrow": 2.391482750743548 }, "actual_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 50.87880739854606, "Haley Stevens": 41.53860311033404, "Mallory McMorrow": 7.582589491119903 }, "mae_points": 8.480847822327888 }, { "cid": "fips:26099", "county": "Macomb", "new_votes": 4908, "reporting_advance_points": 4.26, "source": "histgeo county remaining-vote prediction", "geography_level": "county", "effective_sample_votes": 11457, "expected_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 53.51476924794056, "Haley Stevens": 43.30514831918462, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.1800824328748174 }, "actual_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 60.411572942135294, "Haley Stevens": 37.286063569682156, "Mallory McMorrow": 2.302363488182559 }, "mae_points": 4.597869129463151 }, { "cid": "fips:26093", "county": "Livingston", "new_votes": 4600, "reporting_advance_points": 10.680000000000012, "source": "histgeo county remaining-vote prediction", "geography_level": "county", "effective_sample_votes": 14200, "expected_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 53.94640466405873, "Haley Stevens": 42.772853463021285, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.2807418729199727 }, "actual_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 39.108695652173914, "Haley Stevens": 55.02173913043479, "Mallory McMorrow": 5.869565217391305 }, "mae_points": 9.891806007923218 }, { "cid": "fips:26067", "county": "Ionia", "new_votes": 4029, "reporting_advance_points": 83.69, "source": "histgeo county remaining-vote prediction", "geography_level": "county", "effective_sample_votes": 0, "expected_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 52.8943711505234, "Haley Stevens": 43.85631920460615, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.2493096448704515 }, "actual_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 46.51278232812112, "Haley Stevens": 49.640109208240254, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.8471084636386204 }, "mae_points": 4.254392548268184 }, { "cid": "fips:26045", "county": "Eaton", "new_votes": 3567, "reporting_advance_points": 21.810000000000006, "source": "histgeo county remaining-vote prediction", "geography_level": "county", "effective_sample_votes": 10127, "expected_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 51.7646825171372, "Haley Stevens": 43.40580282400506, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.8295146588577405 }, "actual_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 39.977572189515, "Haley Stevens": 52.7614241659658, "Mallory McMorrow": 7.261003644519204 }, "mae_points": 7.858073551748136 }, { "cid": "fips:26163", "county": "Wayne", "new_votes": 2715, "reporting_advance_points": 0.9000000000000001, "source": "histgeo county remaining-vote prediction", "geography_level": "county", "effective_sample_votes": 4668, "expected_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 52.207059600865655, "Haley Stevens": 44.59428634583155, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.1986540533027923 }, "actual_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 40.0, "Haley Stevens": 56.86924493554327, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.1307550644567224 }, "mae_points": 8.183305726474483 }, { "cid": "fips:26069", "county": "Iosco", "new_votes": 2117, "reporting_advance_points": 44.879999999999995, "source": "histgeo county remaining-vote prediction", "geography_level": "county", "effective_sample_votes": 908, "expected_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 43.61331751410612, "Haley Stevens": 50.360254635317446, "Mallory McMorrow": 6.026427850576433 }, "actual_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 38.73405762871989, "Haley Stevens": 56.825696740670764, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.440245630609352 }, "mae_points": 4.310294736902209 }, { "cid": "fips:26033", "county": "Chippewa", "new_votes": 1541, "reporting_advance_points": 43.36, "source": "histgeo county remaining-vote prediction", "geography_level": "county", "effective_sample_votes": 0, "expected_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 52.345483320963716, "Haley Stevens": 44.27628031698736, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.3782363620489266 }, "actual_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 49.513303049967554, "Haley Stevens": 43.413367942894226, "Mallory McMorrow": 7.073329007138223 }, "mae_points": 2.463395096726196 }, { "cid": "fips:26139", "county": "Ottawa", "new_votes": 1351, "reporting_advance_points": 5.41, "source": "histgeo county remaining-vote prediction", "geography_level": "county", "effective_sample_votes": 0, "expected_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 52.86424584060979, "Haley Stevens": 43.94025126016644, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.195502899223765 }, "actual_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 52.405625462620286, "Haley Stevens": 42.635085122131755, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.959289415247965 }, "mae_points": 1.1758576773494633 }, { "cid": "fips:26027", "county": "Cass", "new_votes": 743, "reporting_advance_points": 23.08, "source": "histgeo county remaining-vote prediction", "geography_level": "county", "effective_sample_votes": 173, "expected_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 52.550249556123994, "Haley Stevens": 43.20712274175786, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.242627702118145 }, "actual_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 38.22341857335128, "Haley Stevens": 52.35531628532974, "Mallory McMorrow": 9.421265141318976 }, "mae_points": 9.551220655181812 }, { "cid": "fips:26041", "county": "Delta", "new_votes": 735, "reporting_advance_points": 9.229999999999993, "source": "histgeo county remaining-vote prediction", "geography_level": "county", "effective_sample_votes": 1973, "expected_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 47.64893873124314, "Haley Stevens": 44.962082230190845, "Mallory McMorrow": 7.388979038566008 }, "actual_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 45.714285714285715, "Haley Stevens": 45.30612244897959, "Mallory McMorrow": 8.979591836734693 }, "mae_points": 1.2897686779716186 } ] }, "latent": { "available": true, "mae_points": 5.01515780131375, "counties_scored": 22, "counties_skipped_noninformative": 0, "informative_votes": 65710.0, "informative_vote_coverage": 1.0, "county_examples": [ { "cid": "fips:26125", "county": "Oakland", "new_votes": 23701, "reporting_advance_points": 6.620000000000004, "source": "latent county remaining-vote prediction", "geography_level": "county", "effective_sample_votes": 142424, "expected_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 48.801529622074554, "Haley Stevens": 48.3860742216693, "Mallory McMorrow": 2.812396156256146 }, "actual_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 48.20049786928821, "Haley Stevens": 49.07809797054977, "Mallory McMorrow": 2.7214041601620185 }, "mae_points": 0.4613491659203113 }, { "cid": "fips:26161", "county": "Washtenaw", "new_votes": 10867, "reporting_advance_points": 11.980000000000013, "source": "latent county remaining-vote prediction", "geography_level": "county", "effective_sample_votes": 48060, "expected_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 63.1908934885152, "Haley Stevens": 34.301677783691474, "Mallory McMorrow": 2.5074287277933247 }, "actual_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 50.87880739854606, "Haley Stevens": 41.53860311033404, "Mallory McMorrow": 7.582589491119903 }, "mae_points": 8.208057393312762 }, { "cid": "fips:26099", "county": "Macomb", "new_votes": 4908, "reporting_advance_points": 4.26, "source": "latent county remaining-vote prediction", "geography_level": "county", "effective_sample_votes": 11457, "expected_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 53.530642546166675, "Haley Stevens": 43.199367822349, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.2699896314843184 }, "actual_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 60.411572942135294, "Haley Stevens": 37.286063569682156, "Mallory McMorrow": 2.302363488182559 }, "mae_points": 4.58728693064574 }, { "cid": "fips:26093", "county": "Livingston", "new_votes": 4600, "reporting_advance_points": 10.680000000000012, "source": "latent county remaining-vote prediction", "geography_level": "county", "effective_sample_votes": 14200, "expected_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 54.01182297167673, "Haley Stevens": 42.668409650000505, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.319767378322771 }, "actual_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 39.108695652173914, "Haley Stevens": 55.02173913043479, "Mallory McMorrow": 5.869565217391305 }, "mae_points": 9.935418213001878 }, { "cid": "fips:26067", "county": "Ionia", "new_votes": 4029, "reporting_advance_points": 83.69, "source": "latent county remaining-vote prediction", "geography_level": "county", "effective_sample_votes": 0, "expected_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 52.72175434961316, "Haley Stevens": 43.903760554128006, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.3744850962588377 }, "actual_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 46.51278232812112, "Haley Stevens": 49.640109208240254, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.8471084636386204 }, "mae_points": 4.13931468099469 }, { "cid": "fips:26045", "county": "Eaton", "new_votes": 3567, "reporting_advance_points": 21.810000000000006, "source": "latent county remaining-vote prediction", "geography_level": "county", "effective_sample_votes": 10127, "expected_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 51.9346896068174, "Haley Stevens": 43.2498454576314, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.815464935551208 }, "actual_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 39.977572189515, "Haley Stevens": 52.7614241659658, "Mallory McMorrow": 7.261003644519204 }, "mae_points": 7.97141161153493 }, { "cid": "fips:26163", "county": "Wayne", "new_votes": 2715, "reporting_advance_points": 0.9000000000000001, "source": "latent county remaining-vote prediction", "geography_level": "county", "effective_sample_votes": 4668, "expected_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 52.04366088533043, "Haley Stevens": 44.66946314941519, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.286875965254368 }, "actual_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 40.0, "Haley Stevens": 56.86924493554327, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.1307550644567224 }, "mae_points": 8.133187857418719 }, { "cid": "fips:26069", "county": "Iosco", "new_votes": 2117, "reporting_advance_points": 44.879999999999995, "source": "latent county remaining-vote prediction", "geography_level": "county", "effective_sample_votes": 908, "expected_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 44.40712494012611, "Haley Stevens": 49.62334580406637, "Mallory McMorrow": 5.969529255807505 }, "actual_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 38.73405762871989, "Haley Stevens": 56.825696740670764, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.440245630609352 }, "mae_points": 4.801567291069588 }, { "cid": "fips:26033", "county": "Chippewa", "new_votes": 1541, "reporting_advance_points": 43.36, "source": "latent county remaining-vote prediction", "geography_level": "county", "effective_sample_votes": 0, "expected_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 52.70550854069134, "Haley Stevens": 43.91744966606447, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.3770417932441905 }, "actual_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 49.513303049967554, "Haley Stevens": 43.413367942894226, "Mallory McMorrow": 7.073329007138223 }, "mae_points": 2.4641914759293533 }, { "cid": "fips:26139", "county": "Ottawa", "new_votes": 1351, "reporting_advance_points": 5.41, "source": "latent county remaining-vote prediction", "geography_level": "county", "effective_sample_votes": 0, "expected_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 52.735517012711554, "Haley Stevens": 43.89216380098358, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.3723191863048654 }, "actual_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 52.405625462620286, "Haley Stevens": 42.635085122131755, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.959289415247965 }, "mae_points": 1.05798015262873 }, { "cid": "fips:26027", "county": "Cass", "new_votes": 743, "reporting_advance_points": 23.08, "source": "latent county remaining-vote prediction", "geography_level": "county", "effective_sample_votes": 173, "expected_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 53.61763450980934, "Haley Stevens": 42.0463404628765, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.3360250273141565 }, "actual_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 38.22341857335128, "Haley Stevens": 52.35531628532974, "Mallory McMorrow": 9.421265141318976 }, "mae_points": 10.262810624305374 }, { "cid": "fips:26041", "county": "Delta", "new_votes": 735, "reporting_advance_points": 9.229999999999993, "source": "latent county remaining-vote prediction", "geography_level": "county", "effective_sample_votes": 1973, "expected_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 48.04689833235019, "Haley Stevens": 44.63868940117528, "Mallory McMorrow": 7.314412266474539 }, "actual_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 45.714285714285715, "Haley Stevens": 45.30612244897959, "Mallory McMorrow": 8.979591836734693 }, "mae_points": 1.555075078709648 } ] }, "batchbias": { "available": true, "mae_points": 3.241859202295093, "counties_scored": 2, "counties_skipped_noninformative": 20, "informative_votes": 8475.0, "informative_vote_coverage": 0.12897580276974585, "county_examples": [ { "cid": "fips:26099", "county": "Macomb", "new_votes": 4908, "reporting_advance_points": 4.26, "source": "batchbias county remaining-vote prediction", "geography_level": "county", "effective_sample_votes": 11457, "expected_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 58.47883977206854, "Haley Stevens": 38.92297444050053, "Mallory McMorrow": 2.598185787430947 }, "actual_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 60.411572942135294, "Haley Stevens": 37.286063569682156, "Mallory McMorrow": 2.302363488182559 }, "mae_points": 1.2884887800445075 }, { "cid": "fips:26045", "county": "Eaton", "new_votes": 3567, "reporting_advance_points": 21.810000000000006, "source": "batchbias county remaining-vote prediction", "geography_level": "county", "effective_sample_votes": 10127, "expected_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 48.27733769951584, "Haley Stevens": 46.59982163974802, "Mallory McMorrow": 5.122840660736137 }, "actual_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 39.977572189515, "Haley Stevens": 52.7614241659658, "Mallory McMorrow": 7.261003644519204 }, "mae_points": 5.533177006667227 } ] } } }, { "from_snapshot": 30, "from_filename": "30.json", "to_snapshot": 39, "to_filename": "39.json", "span_snapshots": 9, "matured_votes": 82541, "matured_counties": 33, "correction_votes": 0, "predictions": { "v0": { "available": true, "mae_points": 5.280702351906744, "counties_scored": 33, "counties_skipped_noninformative": 0, "informative_votes": 82541.0, "informative_vote_coverage": 1.0, "county_examples": [ { "cid": "fips:26125", "county": "Oakland", "new_votes": 14645, "reporting_advance_points": 5.909999999999993, "source": "statewide live scoreboard", "geography_level": "statewide", "effective_sample_votes": 327317, "expected_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 51.43393102099799, "Haley Stevens": 45.13758833180067, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.4284806472013365 }, "actual_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 45.27142369409355, "Haley Stevens": 51.737794469102084, "Mallory McMorrow": 2.9907818368043704 }, "mae_points": 4.400137424867607 }, { "cid": "fips:26163", "county": "Wayne", "new_votes": 13346, "reporting_advance_points": 4.379999999999999, "source": "statewide live scoreboard", "geography_level": "statewide", "effective_sample_votes": 327317, "expected_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 51.43393102099799, "Haley Stevens": 45.13758833180067, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.4284806472013365 }, "actual_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 49.303161996103704, "Haley Stevens": 47.63224936310505, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.064588640791248 }, "mae_points": 1.6631073542029196 }, { "cid": "fips:26099", "county": "Macomb", "new_votes": 10396, "reporting_advance_points": 9.030000000000001, "source": "statewide live scoreboard", "geography_level": "statewide", "effective_sample_votes": 327317, "expected_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 51.43393102099799, "Haley Stevens": 45.13758833180067, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.4284806472013365 }, "actual_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 62.899191996921886, "Haley Stevens": 34.9461331281262, "Mallory McMorrow": 2.1546748749519047 }, "mae_points": 7.6435073172826 }, { "cid": "fips:26065", "county": "Ingham", "new_votes": 8363, "reporting_advance_points": 15.160000000000002, "source": "statewide live scoreboard", "geography_level": "statewide", "effective_sample_votes": 327317, "expected_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 51.43393102099799, "Haley Stevens": 45.13758833180067, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.4284806472013365 }, "actual_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 54.07150544063135, "Haley Stevens": 40.34437402845869, "Mallory McMorrow": 5.584120530909961 }, "mae_points": 3.1954762022279897 }, { "cid": "fips:26139", "county": "Ottawa", "new_votes": 4579, "reporting_advance_points": 18.329999999999995, "source": "statewide live scoreboard", "geography_level": "statewide", "effective_sample_votes": 327317, "expected_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 51.43393102099799, "Haley Stevens": 45.13758833180067, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.4284806472013365 }, "actual_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 56.016597510373444, "Haley Stevens": 39.244376501419524, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.7390259882070325 }, "mae_points": 3.9288078869207648 }, { "cid": "fips:26111", "county": "Midland", "new_votes": 2669, "reporting_advance_points": 26.950000000000003, "source": "statewide live scoreboard", "geography_level": "statewide", "effective_sample_votes": 327317, "expected_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 51.43393102099799, "Haley Stevens": 45.13758833180067, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.4284806472013365 }, "actual_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 41.81341326339453, "Haley Stevens": 53.3158486324466, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.87073810415886 }, "mae_points": 6.413678505068974 }, { "cid": "fips:26081", "county": "Kent", "new_votes": 2610, "reporting_advance_points": 3.1500000000000057, "source": "statewide live scoreboard", "geography_level": "statewide", "effective_sample_votes": 327317, "expected_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 51.43393102099799, "Haley Stevens": 45.13758833180067, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.4284806472013365 }, "actual_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 57.08812260536399, "Haley Stevens": 39.38697318007663, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.524904214559387 }, "mae_points": 3.833743434482697 }, { "cid": "fips:26107", "county": "Mecosta", "new_votes": 2153, "reporting_advance_points": 61.83, "source": "statewide live scoreboard", "geography_level": "statewide", "effective_sample_votes": 327317, "expected_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 51.43393102099799, "Haley Stevens": 45.13758833180067, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.4284806472013365 }, "actual_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 39.386901997213194, "Haley Stevens": 55.87552252670692, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.737575476079889 }, "mae_points": 8.0313526825232 }, { "cid": "fips:26047", "county": "Emmet", "new_votes": 1991, "reporting_advance_points": 42.44, "source": "statewide live scoreboard", "geography_level": "statewide", "effective_sample_votes": 327317, "expected_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 51.43393102099799, "Haley Stevens": 45.13758833180067, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.4284806472013365 }, "actual_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 52.6368658965344, "Haley Stevens": 41.73782019085886, "Mallory McMorrow": 5.62531391260673 }, "mae_points": 2.266512093961203 }, { "cid": "fips:26155", "county": "Shiawassee", "new_votes": 1802, "reporting_advance_points": 22.32, "source": "statewide live scoreboard", "geography_level": "statewide", "effective_sample_votes": 327317, "expected_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 51.43393102099799, "Haley Stevens": 45.13758833180067, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.4284806472013365 }, "actual_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 36.90344062153163, "Haley Stevens": 55.04994450610433, "Mallory McMorrow": 8.04661487236404 }, "mae_points": 9.686993599644241 }, { "cid": "fips:26027", "county": "Cass", "new_votes": 1784, "reporting_advance_points": 55.39999999999999, "source": "statewide live scoreboard", "geography_level": "statewide", "effective_sample_votes": 327317, "expected_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 51.43393102099799, "Haley Stevens": 45.13758833180067, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.4284806472013365 }, "actual_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 44.955156950672645, "Haley Stevens": 45.403587443946186, "Mallory McMorrow": 9.641255605381167 }, "mae_points": 4.319182713550229 }, { "cid": "fips:26137", "county": "Otsego", "new_votes": 1730, "reporting_advance_points": 70.99, "source": "statewide live scoreboard", "geography_level": "statewide", "effective_sample_votes": 327317, "expected_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 51.43393102099799, "Haley Stevens": 45.13758833180067, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.4284806472013365 }, "actual_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 46.06936416184971, "Haley Stevens": 49.07514450867052, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.855491329479769 }, "mae_points": 3.5763779060988536 } ] }, "v1": { "available": true, "mae_points": 4.016828365564874, "counties_scored": 18, "counties_skipped_noninformative": 15, "informative_votes": 58586.0, "informative_vote_coverage": 0.7097805938866745, "county_examples": [ { "cid": "fips:26125", "county": "Oakland", "new_votes": 14645, "reporting_advance_points": 5.909999999999993, "source": "county live share", "geography_level": "county", "effective_sample_votes": 166125, "expected_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 47.75079006772009, "Haley Stevens": 49.58796087283672, "Mallory McMorrow": 2.66124905944319 }, "actual_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 45.27142369409355, "Haley Stevens": 51.737794469102084, "Mallory McMorrow": 2.9907818368043704 }, "mae_points": 1.6529109157510287 }, { "cid": "fips:26163", "county": "Wayne", "new_votes": 13346, "reporting_advance_points": 4.379999999999999, "source": "county live share", "geography_level": "county", "effective_sample_votes": 7383, "expected_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 44.35866179060003, "Haley Stevens": 52.76987674387106, "Mallory McMorrow": 2.8714614655289177 }, "actual_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 49.303161996103704, "Haley Stevens": 47.63224936310505, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.064588640791248 }, "mae_points": 3.4250849205106704 }, { "cid": "fips:26099", "county": "Macomb", "new_votes": 10396, "reporting_advance_points": 9.030000000000001, "source": "county live share", "geography_level": "county", "effective_sample_votes": 16365, "expected_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 56.810265811182404, "Haley Stevens": 40.366636113657194, "Mallory McMorrow": 2.823098075160403 }, "actual_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 62.899191996921886, "Haley Stevens": 34.9461331281262, "Mallory McMorrow": 2.1546748749519047 }, "mae_points": 4.059284123826326 }, { "cid": "fips:26139", "county": "Ottawa", "new_votes": 4579, "reporting_advance_points": 18.329999999999995, "source": "county live share", "geography_level": "county", "effective_sample_votes": 1351, "expected_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 52.405625462620286, "Haley Stevens": 42.635085122131755, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.959289415247965 }, "actual_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 56.016597510373444, "Haley Stevens": 39.244376501419524, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.7390259882070325 }, "mae_points": 2.4073146985021063 }, { "cid": "fips:26081", "county": "Kent", "new_votes": 2610, "reporting_advance_points": 3.1500000000000057, "source": "county live share", "geography_level": "county", "effective_sample_votes": 18447, "expected_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 53.14685314685315, "Haley Stevens": 40.90638044126416, "Mallory McMorrow": 5.946766411882691 }, "actual_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 57.08812260536399, "Haley Stevens": 39.38697318007663, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.524904214559387 }, "mae_points": 2.6275129723405604 }, { "cid": "fips:26047", "county": "Emmet", "new_votes": 1991, "reporting_advance_points": 42.44, "source": "county live share", "geography_level": "county", "effective_sample_votes": 362, "expected_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 62.430939226519335, "Haley Stevens": 33.70165745856354, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.867403314917127 }, "actual_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 52.6368658965344, "Haley Stevens": 41.73782019085886, "Mallory McMorrow": 5.62531391260673 }, "mae_points": 6.529382219989954 }, { "cid": "fips:26027", "county": "Cass", "new_votes": 1784, "reporting_advance_points": 55.39999999999999, "source": "county live share", "geography_level": "county", "effective_sample_votes": 916, "expected_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 41.70305676855895, "Haley Stevens": 49.23580786026201, "Mallory McMorrow": 9.06113537117904 }, "actual_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 44.955156950672645, "Haley Stevens": 45.403587443946186, "Mallory McMorrow": 9.641255605381167 }, "mae_points": 2.554813610877216 }, { "cid": "fips:26117", "county": "Montcalm", "new_votes": 1430, "reporting_advance_points": 28.139999999999997, "source": "county live share", "geography_level": "county", "effective_sample_votes": 659, "expected_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 46.13050075872534, "Haley Stevens": 48.10318664643399, "Mallory McMorrow": 5.7663125948406675 }, "actual_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 36.92307692307693, "Haley Stevens": 59.3006993006993, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.7762237762237763 }, "mae_points": 7.465008436176872 }, { "cid": "fips:26031", "county": "Cheboygan", "new_votes": 1333, "reporting_advance_points": 47.089999999999996, "source": "county live share", "geography_level": "county", "effective_sample_votes": 288, "expected_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 46.875, "Haley Stevens": 48.95833333333333, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.166666666666666 }, "actual_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 41.035258814703674, "Haley Stevens": 54.46361590397599, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.50112528132033 }, "mae_points": 3.89316079019755 }, { "cid": "fips:26067", "county": "Ionia", "new_votes": 1112, "reporting_advance_points": 0.0, "source": "county live share", "geography_level": "county", "effective_sample_votes": 4029, "expected_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 46.51278232812112, "Haley Stevens": 49.640109208240254, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.8471084636386204 }, "actual_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 52.248201438848916, "Haley Stevens": 42.985611510791365, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.766187050359712 }, "mae_points": 4.43633179829926 }, { "cid": "fips:26145", "county": "Saginaw", "new_votes": 1017, "reporting_advance_points": 3.81, "source": "county live share", "geography_level": "county", "effective_sample_votes": 1027, "expected_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 51.80136319376826, "Haley Stevens": 45.95910418695229, "Mallory McMorrow": 2.239532619279455 }, "actual_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 35.88987217305801, "Haley Stevens": 58.50540806293019, "Mallory McMorrow": 5.604719764011799 }, "mae_points": 10.607660680473497 }, { "cid": "fips:26165", "county": "Wexford", "new_votes": 919, "reporting_advance_points": 34.37, "source": "county live share", "geography_level": "county", "effective_sample_votes": 275, "expected_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 45.81818181818182, "Haley Stevens": 48.72727272727273, "Mallory McMorrow": 5.454545454545454 }, "actual_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 43.41675734494015, "Haley Stevens": 52.66594124047879, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.917301414581066 }, "mae_points": 2.6257790088040385 } ] }, "v3": { "available": true, "mae_points": 4.663952296277272, "counties_scored": 33, "counties_skipped_noninformative": 0, "informative_votes": 82541.0, "informative_vote_coverage": 1.0, "county_examples": [ { "cid": "fips:26125", "county": "Oakland", "new_votes": 14645, "reporting_advance_points": 5.909999999999993, "source": "v3 county remaining-vote prediction", "geography_level": "county", "effective_sample_votes": 166125, "expected_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 48.48741825837567, "Haley Stevens": 48.697886364629504, "Mallory McMorrow": 2.8146953769948193 }, "actual_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 45.27142369409355, "Haley Stevens": 51.737794469102084, "Mallory McMorrow": 2.9907818368043704 }, "mae_points": 2.143996376188083 }, { "cid": "fips:26163", "county": "Wayne", "new_votes": 13346, "reporting_advance_points": 4.379999999999999, "source": "v3 county remaining-vote prediction", "geography_level": "county", "effective_sample_votes": 7383, "expected_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 50.33100570041298, "Haley Stevens": 46.32734434949593, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.3416499500911008 }, "actual_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 49.303161996103704, "Haley Stevens": 47.63224936310505, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.064588640791248 }, "mae_points": 0.869936675739417 }, { "cid": "fips:26099", "county": "Macomb", "new_votes": 10396, "reporting_advance_points": 9.030000000000001, "source": "v3 county remaining-vote prediction", "geography_level": "county", "effective_sample_votes": 16365, "expected_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 53.45988920423203, "Haley Stevens": 43.339755781303055, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.200355014464927 }, "actual_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 62.899191996921886, "Haley Stevens": 34.9461331281262, "Mallory McMorrow": 2.1546748749519047 }, "mae_points": 6.292868528459912 }, { "cid": "fips:26065", "county": "Ingham", "new_votes": 8363, "reporting_advance_points": 15.160000000000002, "source": "v3 county remaining-vote prediction", "geography_level": "county", "effective_sample_votes": 0, "expected_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 51.43393102099799, "Haley Stevens": 45.13758833180067, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.4284806472013365 }, "actual_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 54.07150544063135, "Haley Stevens": 40.34437402845869, "Mallory McMorrow": 5.584120530909961 }, "mae_points": 3.1954762022279897 }, { "cid": "fips:26139", "county": "Ottawa", "new_votes": 4579, "reporting_advance_points": 18.329999999999995, "source": "v3 county remaining-vote prediction", "geography_level": "county", "effective_sample_votes": 1351, "expected_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 51.65994138304869, "Haley Stevens": 44.55552093260259, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.7845376843487135 }, "actual_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 56.016597510373444, "Haley Stevens": 39.244376501419524, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.7390259882070325 }, "mae_points": 3.5407629541220453 }, { "cid": "fips:26111", "county": "Midland", "new_votes": 2669, "reporting_advance_points": 26.950000000000003, "source": "v3 county remaining-vote prediction", "geography_level": "county", "effective_sample_votes": 0, "expected_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 51.43393102099799, "Haley Stevens": 45.13758833180067, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.4284806472013365 }, "actual_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 41.81341326339453, "Haley Stevens": 53.3158486324466, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.87073810415886 }, "mae_points": 6.413678505068974 }, { "cid": "fips:26081", "county": "Kent", "new_votes": 2610, "reporting_advance_points": 3.1500000000000057, "source": "v3 county remaining-vote prediction", "geography_level": "county", "effective_sample_votes": 18447, "expected_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 52.241369879918, "Haley Stevens": 43.143077536814864, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.615552583267133 }, "actual_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 57.08812260536399, "Haley Stevens": 39.38697318007663, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.524904214559387 }, "mae_points": 3.231168483630658 }, { "cid": "fips:26107", "county": "Mecosta", "new_votes": 2153, "reporting_advance_points": 61.83, "source": "v3 county remaining-vote prediction", "geography_level": "county", "effective_sample_votes": 0, "expected_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 51.43393102099799, "Haley Stevens": 45.13758833180067, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.4284806472013365 }, "actual_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 39.386901997213194, "Haley Stevens": 55.87552252670692, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.737575476079889 }, "mae_points": 8.0313526825232 }, { "cid": "fips:26047", "county": "Emmet", "new_votes": 1991, "reporting_advance_points": 42.44, "source": "v3 county remaining-vote prediction", "geography_level": "county", "effective_sample_votes": 362, "expected_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 54.489437431932494, "Haley Stevens": 41.960127749327334, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.550434818740167 }, "actual_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 52.6368658965344, "Haley Stevens": 41.73782019085886, "Mallory McMorrow": 5.62531391260673 }, "mae_points": 1.3832527292443766 }, { "cid": "fips:26155", "county": "Shiawassee", "new_votes": 1802, "reporting_advance_points": 22.32, "source": "v3 county remaining-vote prediction", "geography_level": "county", "effective_sample_votes": 0, "expected_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 51.43393102099799, "Haley Stevens": 45.13758833180067, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.4284806472013365 }, "actual_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 36.90344062153163, "Haley Stevens": 55.04994450610433, "Mallory McMorrow": 8.04661487236404 }, "mae_points": 9.686993599644241 }, { "cid": "fips:26027", "county": "Cass", "new_votes": 1784, "reporting_advance_points": 55.39999999999999, "source": "v3 county remaining-vote prediction", "geography_level": "county", "effective_sample_votes": 916, "expected_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 46.24362462807433, "Haley Stevens": 47.3235188521592, "Mallory McMorrow": 6.432856519766469 }, "actual_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 44.955156950672645, "Haley Stevens": 45.403587443946186, "Mallory McMorrow": 9.641255605381167 }, "mae_points": 2.13893272374313 }, { "cid": "fips:26137", "county": "Otsego", "new_votes": 1730, "reporting_advance_points": 70.99, "source": "v3 county remaining-vote prediction", "geography_level": "county", "effective_sample_votes": 0, "expected_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 51.43393102099799, "Haley Stevens": 45.13758833180067, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.4284806472013365 }, "actual_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 46.06936416184971, "Haley Stevens": 49.07514450867052, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.855491329479769 }, "mae_points": 3.5763779060988536 } ] }, "market": { "available": false, "counties_scored": 0, "counties_skipped_noninformative": 33, "informative_vote_coverage": 0.0 }, "histgeo": { "available": true, "mae_points": 4.410163257140813, "counties_scored": 33, "counties_skipped_noninformative": 0, "informative_votes": 82541.0, "informative_vote_coverage": 1.0, "county_examples": [ { "cid": "fips:26125", "county": "Oakland", "new_votes": 14645, "reporting_advance_points": 5.909999999999993, "source": "histgeo county remaining-vote prediction", "geography_level": "county", "effective_sample_votes": 166125, "expected_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 48.32871939543445, "Haley Stevens": 48.83016759003204, "Mallory McMorrow": 2.8411130145335104 }, "actual_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 45.27142369409355, "Haley Stevens": 51.737794469102084, "Mallory McMorrow": 2.9907818368043704 }, "mae_points": 2.038197134227267 }, { "cid": "fips:26163", "county": "Wayne", "new_votes": 13346, "reporting_advance_points": 4.379999999999999, "source": "histgeo county remaining-vote prediction", "geography_level": "county", "effective_sample_votes": 7383, "expected_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 50.3345836296892, "Haley Stevens": 46.0759150896536, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.5895012806572044 }, "actual_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 49.303161996103704, "Haley Stevens": 47.63224936310505, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.064588640791248 }, "mae_points": 1.0375561823009682 }, { "cid": "fips:26099", "county": "Macomb", "new_votes": 10396, "reporting_advance_points": 9.030000000000001, "source": "histgeo county remaining-vote prediction", "geography_level": "county", "effective_sample_votes": 16365, "expected_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 53.30019660952542, "Haley Stevens": 43.319203050959764, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.380600339514811 }, "actual_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 62.899191996921886, "Haley Stevens": 34.9461331281262, "Mallory McMorrow": 2.1546748749519047 }, "mae_points": 6.399330258264315 }, { "cid": "fips:26065", "county": "Ingham", "new_votes": 8363, "reporting_advance_points": 15.160000000000002, "source": "histgeo county remaining-vote prediction", "geography_level": "county", "effective_sample_votes": 0, "expected_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 51.88746953321656, "Haley Stevens": 44.338847524802596, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.7736829419808493 }, "actual_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 54.07150544063135, "Haley Stevens": 40.34437402845869, "Mallory McMorrow": 5.584120530909961 }, "mae_points": 2.662982330895938 }, { "cid": "fips:26139", "county": "Ottawa", "new_votes": 4579, "reporting_advance_points": 18.329999999999995, "source": "histgeo county remaining-vote prediction", "geography_level": "county", "effective_sample_votes": 1351, "expected_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 51.87988745595457, "Haley Stevens": 44.15583927990323, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.964273264142203 }, "actual_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 56.016597510373444, "Haley Stevens": 39.244376501419524, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.7390259882070325 }, "mae_points": 3.274308518989138 }, { "cid": "fips:26111", "county": "Midland", "new_votes": 2669, "reporting_advance_points": 26.950000000000003, "source": "histgeo county remaining-vote prediction", "geography_level": "county", "effective_sample_votes": 0, "expected_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 50.700220809397514, "Haley Stevens": 45.536997499975705, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.762781690626783 }, "actual_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 41.81341326339453, "Haley Stevens": 53.3158486324466, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.87073810415886 }, "mae_points": 5.924538364001988 }, { "cid": "fips:26081", "county": "Kent", "new_votes": 2610, "reporting_advance_points": 3.1500000000000057, "source": "histgeo county remaining-vote prediction", "geography_level": "county", "effective_sample_votes": 18447, "expected_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 52.90943691314155, "Haley Stevens": 42.38132876659196, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.709234320266497 }, "actual_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 57.08812260536399, "Haley Stevens": 39.38697318007663, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.524904214559387 }, "mae_points": 2.785790461481628 }, { "cid": "fips:26107", "county": "Mecosta", "new_votes": 2153, "reporting_advance_points": 61.83, "source": "histgeo county remaining-vote prediction", "geography_level": "county", "effective_sample_votes": 0, "expected_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 51.07425168025299, "Haley Stevens": 45.13585652938321, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.789891790363795 }, "actual_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 39.386901997213194, "Haley Stevens": 55.87552252670692, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.737575476079889 }, "mae_points": 7.791566455359868 }, { "cid": "fips:26047", "county": "Emmet", "new_votes": 1991, "reporting_advance_points": 42.44, "source": "histgeo county remaining-vote prediction", "geography_level": "county", "effective_sample_votes": 362, "expected_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 54.258603529644844, "Haley Stevens": 41.97692172812461, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.764474742230542 }, "actual_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 52.6368658965344, "Haley Stevens": 41.73782019085886, "Mallory McMorrow": 5.62531391260673 }, "mae_points": 1.2405594469174588 }, { "cid": "fips:26155", "county": "Shiawassee", "new_votes": 1802, "reporting_advance_points": 22.32, "source": "histgeo county remaining-vote prediction", "geography_level": "county", "effective_sample_votes": 0, "expected_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 50.530907057219835, "Haley Stevens": 45.59111656051926, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.8779763822608984 }, "actual_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 36.90344062153163, "Haley Stevens": 55.04994450610433, "Mallory McMorrow": 8.04661487236404 }, "mae_points": 9.084977623792138 }, { "cid": "fips:26027", "county": "Cass", "new_votes": 1784, "reporting_advance_points": 55.39999999999999, "source": "histgeo county remaining-vote prediction", "geography_level": "county", "effective_sample_votes": 916, "expected_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 45.51895406315188, "Haley Stevens": 47.93507751167501, "Mallory McMorrow": 6.545968425173114 }, "actual_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 44.955156950672645, "Haley Stevens": 45.403587443946186, "Mallory McMorrow": 9.641255605381167 }, "mae_points": 2.063524786805371 }, { "cid": "fips:26137", "county": "Otsego", "new_votes": 1730, "reporting_advance_points": 70.99, "source": "histgeo county remaining-vote prediction", "geography_level": "county", "effective_sample_votes": 0, "expected_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 50.757385290100444, "Haley Stevens": 45.40562868362673, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.8369860262728173 }, "actual_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 46.06936416184971, "Haley Stevens": 49.07514450867052, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.855491329479769 }, "mae_points": 3.1253474188338237 } ] }, "latent": { "available": true, "mae_points": 4.5428344165257935, "counties_scored": 33, "counties_skipped_noninformative": 0, "informative_votes": 82541.0, "informative_vote_coverage": 1.0, "county_examples": [ { "cid": "fips:26125", "county": "Oakland", "new_votes": 14645, "reporting_advance_points": 5.909999999999993, "source": "latent county remaining-vote prediction", "geography_level": "county", "effective_sample_votes": 166125, "expected_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 48.31846210288502, "Haley Stevens": 48.76918523958118, "Mallory McMorrow": 2.9123526575338015 }, "actual_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 45.27142369409355, "Haley Stevens": 51.737794469102084, "Mallory McMorrow": 2.9907818368043704 }, "mae_points": 2.031358939194317 }, { "cid": "fips:26163", "county": "Wayne", "new_votes": 13346, "reporting_advance_points": 4.379999999999999, "source": "latent county remaining-vote prediction", "geography_level": "county", "effective_sample_votes": 7383, "expected_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 49.918868132379735, "Haley Stevens": 46.22781957272329, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.853312294896975 }, "actual_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 49.303161996103704, "Haley Stevens": 47.63224936310505, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.064588640791248 }, "mae_points": 0.9362865269211743 }, { "cid": "fips:26099", "county": "Macomb", "new_votes": 10396, "reporting_advance_points": 9.030000000000001, "source": "latent county remaining-vote prediction", "geography_level": "county", "effective_sample_votes": 16365, "expected_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 53.119948621815226, "Haley Stevens": 43.29640249950546, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.5836488786793153 }, "actual_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 62.899191996921886, "Haley Stevens": 34.9461331281262, "Mallory McMorrow": 2.1546748749519047 }, "mae_points": 6.519495583404443 }, { "cid": "fips:26065", "county": "Ingham", "new_votes": 8363, "reporting_advance_points": 15.160000000000002, "source": "latent county remaining-vote prediction", "geography_level": "county", "effective_sample_votes": 0, "expected_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 50.87841458141992, "Haley Stevens": 45.076474773940596, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.045110644639487 }, "actual_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 54.07150544063135, "Haley Stevens": 40.34437402845869, "Mallory McMorrow": 5.584120530909961 }, "mae_points": 3.154733830321272 }, { "cid": "fips:26139", "county": "Ottawa", "new_votes": 4579, "reporting_advance_points": 18.329999999999995, "source": "latent county remaining-vote prediction", "geography_level": "county", "effective_sample_votes": 1351, "expected_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 51.24642877155671, "Haley Stevens": 44.49782084560908, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.255750382834212 }, "actual_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 56.016597510373444, "Haley Stevens": 39.244376501419524, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.7390259882070325 }, "mae_points": 3.502296229459703 }, { "cid": "fips:26111", "county": "Midland", "new_votes": 2669, "reporting_advance_points": 26.950000000000003, "source": "latent county remaining-vote prediction", "geography_level": "county", "effective_sample_votes": 0, "expected_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 50.84866167240849, "Haley Stevens": 45.101593308078535, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.049745019512974 }, "actual_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 41.81341326339453, "Haley Stevens": 53.3158486324466, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.87073810415886 }, "mae_points": 6.02349893934264 }, { "cid": "fips:26081", "county": "Kent", "new_votes": 2610, "reporting_advance_points": 3.1500000000000057, "source": "latent county remaining-vote prediction", "geography_level": "county", "effective_sample_votes": 18447, "expected_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 51.98309354132995, "Haley Stevens": 43.080902410632525, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.936004048037518 }, "actual_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 57.08812260536399, "Haley Stevens": 39.38697318007663, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.524904214559387 }, "mae_points": 3.4033527093560223 }, { "cid": "fips:26107", "county": "Mecosta", "new_votes": 2153, "reporting_advance_points": 61.83, "source": "latent county remaining-vote prediction", "geography_level": "county", "effective_sample_votes": 0, "expected_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 50.85819780006536, "Haley Stevens": 45.09354254746212, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.048259652472513 }, "actual_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 39.386901997213194, "Haley Stevens": 55.87552252670692, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.737575476079889 }, "mae_points": 7.647530535234782 }, { "cid": "fips:26047", "county": "Emmet", "new_votes": 1991, "reporting_advance_points": 42.44, "source": "latent county remaining-vote prediction", "geography_level": "county", "effective_sample_votes": 362, "expected_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 54.06617436674848, "Haley Stevens": 41.934649013950455, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.999176619301063 }, "actual_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 52.6368658965344, "Haley Stevens": 41.73782019085886, "Mallory McMorrow": 5.62531391260673 }, "mae_points": 1.0840915288704434 }, { "cid": "fips:26155", "county": "Shiawassee", "new_votes": 1802, "reporting_advance_points": 22.32, "source": "latent county remaining-vote prediction", "geography_level": "county", "effective_sample_votes": 0, "expected_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 50.83204463384878, "Haley Stevens": 45.11562204221587, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.0523333239353505 }, "actual_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 36.90344062153163, "Haley Stevens": 55.04994450610433, "Mallory McMorrow": 8.04661487236404 }, "mae_points": 9.285736008211435 }, { "cid": "fips:26027", "county": "Cass", "new_votes": 1784, "reporting_advance_points": 55.39999999999999, "source": "latent county remaining-vote prediction", "geography_level": "county", "effective_sample_votes": 916, "expected_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 45.97081654580109, "Haley Stevens": 47.306480640972296, "Mallory McMorrow": 6.722702813226619 }, "actual_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 44.955156950672645, "Haley Stevens": 45.403587443946186, "Mallory McMorrow": 9.641255605381167 }, "mae_points": 1.9457018614363675 }, { "cid": "fips:26137", "county": "Otsego", "new_votes": 1730, "reporting_advance_points": 70.99, "source": "latent county remaining-vote prediction", "geography_level": "county", "effective_sample_votes": 0, "expected_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 50.840784518946904, "Haley Stevens": 45.108243499764285, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.050971981288809 }, "actual_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 46.06936416184971, "Haley Stevens": 49.07514450867052, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.855491329479769 }, "mae_points": 3.1809469047314622 } ] }, "batchbias": { "available": true, "mae_points": 2.7400600097930354, "counties_scored": 3, "counties_skipped_noninformative": 30, "informative_votes": 14902.0, "informative_vote_coverage": 0.18054057983305266, "county_examples": [ { "cid": "fips:26163", "county": "Wayne", "new_votes": 13346, "reporting_advance_points": 4.379999999999999, "source": "batchbias county remaining-vote prediction", "geography_level": "county", "effective_sample_votes": 7383, "expected_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 48.16203802853781, "Haley Stevens": 48.401091631392475, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.436870340069725 }, "actual_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 49.303161996103704, "Haley Stevens": 47.63224936310505, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.064588640791248 }, "mae_points": 0.7607493117105979 }, { "cid": "fips:26145", "county": "Saginaw", "new_votes": 1017, "reporting_advance_points": 3.81, "source": "batchbias county remaining-vote prediction", "geography_level": "county", "effective_sample_votes": 1027, "expected_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 49.35817910590666, "Haley Stevens": 47.33128727031044, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.3105336237828973 }, "actual_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 35.88987217305801, "Haley Stevens": 58.50540806293019, "Mallory McMorrow": 5.604719764011799 }, "mae_points": 8.978871288565765 }, { "cid": "fips:26057", "county": "Gratiot", "new_votes": 539, "reporting_advance_points": 15.410000000000002, "source": "batchbias county remaining-vote prediction", "geography_level": "county", "effective_sample_votes": 601, "expected_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 48.70068780504738, "Haley Stevens": 46.39234732336443, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.906964871588189 }, "actual_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 42.67161410018553, "Haley Stevens": 50.649350649350644, "Mallory McMorrow": 6.679035250463822 }, "mae_points": 4.019382469907899 } ] } } }, { "from_snapshot": 39, "from_filename": "39.json", "to_snapshot": 48, "to_filename": "48.json", "span_snapshots": 9, "matured_votes": 151477, "matured_counties": 47, "correction_votes": 0, "predictions": { "v0": { "available": true, "mae_points": 7.673071411769994, "counties_scored": 47, "counties_skipped_noninformative": 0, "informative_votes": 151477.0, "informative_vote_coverage": 1.0, "county_examples": [ { "cid": "fips:26163", "county": "Wayne", "new_votes": 49157, "reporting_advance_points": 16.16, "source": "statewide live scoreboard", "geography_level": "statewide", "effective_sample_votes": 414355, "expected_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 50.967889852903916, "Haley Stevens": 45.429885001991046, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.6022251451050424 }, "actual_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 28.76497752100413, "Haley Stevens": 67.39426734747849, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.840755131517383 }, "mae_points": 14.801941554599853 }, { "cid": "fips:26081", "county": "Kent", "new_votes": 23536, "reporting_advance_points": 28.34, "source": "statewide live scoreboard", "geography_level": "statewide", "effective_sample_votes": 414355, "expected_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 50.967889852903916, "Haley Stevens": 45.429885001991046, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.6022251451050424 }, "actual_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 74.57087015635622, "Haley Stevens": 23.504418762746432, "Mallory McMorrow": 1.9247110808973487 }, "mae_points": 15.735320202301537 }, { "cid": "fips:26065", "county": "Ingham", "new_votes": 10518, "reporting_advance_points": 19.069999999999997, "source": "statewide live scoreboard", "geography_level": "statewide", "effective_sample_votes": 414355, "expected_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 50.967889852903916, "Haley Stevens": 45.429885001991046, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.6022251451050424 }, "actual_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 74.51036318691766, "Haley Stevens": 23.217341699942956, "Mallory McMorrow": 2.27229511313938 }, "mae_points": 15.694982222675833 }, { "cid": "fips:26125", "county": "Oakland", "new_votes": 8891, "reporting_advance_points": 3.5799999999999943, "source": "statewide live scoreboard", "geography_level": "statewide", "effective_sample_votes": 414355, "expected_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 50.967889852903916, "Haley Stevens": 45.429885001991046, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.6022251451050424 }, "actual_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 46.69890900911034, "Haley Stevens": 49.81441907546957, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.486671915420088 }, "mae_points": 2.9230227156523547 }, { "cid": "fips:26147", "county": "St. Clair", "new_votes": 5847, "reporting_advance_points": 32.78, "source": "statewide live scoreboard", "geography_level": "statewide", "effective_sample_votes": 414355, "expected_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 50.967889852903916, "Haley Stevens": 45.429885001991046, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.6022251451050424 }, "actual_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 43.5608004104669, "Haley Stevens": 52.14639986317769, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.292799726355396 }, "mae_points": 4.938059628291338 }, { "cid": "fips:26099", "county": "Macomb", "new_votes": 4815, "reporting_advance_points": 4.180000000000001, "source": "statewide live scoreboard", "geography_level": "statewide", "effective_sample_votes": 414355, "expected_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 50.967889852903916, "Haley Stevens": 45.429885001991046, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.6022251451050424 }, "actual_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 41.76531671858775, "Haley Stevens": 54.47559709241953, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.7590861889927307 }, "mae_points": 6.135048756210779 }, { "cid": "fips:26139", "county": "Ottawa", "new_votes": 3697, "reporting_advance_points": 14.790000000000006, "source": "statewide live scoreboard", "geography_level": "statewide", "effective_sample_votes": 414355, "expected_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 50.967889852903916, "Haley Stevens": 45.429885001991046, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.6022251451050424 }, "actual_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 51.06843386529618, "Haley Stevens": 44.76602650797945, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.165539626724371 }, "mae_points": 0.44257232934106494 }, { "cid": "fips:26029", "county": "Charlevoix", "new_votes": 2879, "reporting_advance_points": 83.62, "source": "statewide live scoreboard", "geography_level": "statewide", "effective_sample_votes": 414355, "expected_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 50.967889852903916, "Haley Stevens": 45.429885001991046, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.6022251451050424 }, "actual_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 48.66273011462313, "Haley Stevens": 46.960750260507126, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.376519624869746 }, "mae_points": 1.536773158853855 }, { "cid": "fips:26115", "county": "Monroe", "new_votes": 2796, "reporting_advance_points": 17.750000000000004, "source": "statewide live scoreboard", "geography_level": "statewide", "effective_sample_votes": 414355, "expected_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 50.967889852903916, "Haley Stevens": 45.429885001991046, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.6022251451050424 }, "actual_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 44.20600858369099, "Haley Stevens": 50.82260371959942, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.971387696709585 }, "mae_points": 4.50792084614195 }, { "cid": "fips:26015", "county": "Barry", "new_votes": 2664, "reporting_advance_points": 45.190000000000005, "source": "statewide live scoreboard", "geography_level": "statewide", "effective_sample_votes": 414355, "expected_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 50.967889852903916, "Haley Stevens": 45.429885001991046, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.6022251451050424 }, "actual_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 40.57807807807808, "Haley Stevens": 53.9039039039039, "Mallory McMorrow": 5.518018018018018 }, "mae_points": 6.926541183217223 }, { "cid": "fips:26145", "county": "Saginaw", "new_votes": 2388, "reporting_advance_points": 8.940000000000001, "source": "statewide live scoreboard", "geography_level": "statewide", "effective_sample_votes": 414355, "expected_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 50.967889852903916, "Haley Stevens": 45.429885001991046, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.6022251451050424 }, "actual_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 43.84422110552764, "Haley Stevens": 50.67001675041875, "Mallory McMorrow": 5.485762144053601 }, "mae_points": 4.74911249825085 }, { "cid": "fips:26157", "county": "Tuscola", "new_votes": 2125, "reporting_advance_points": 41.07, "source": "statewide live scoreboard", "geography_level": "statewide", "effective_sample_votes": 414355, "expected_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 50.967889852903916, "Haley Stevens": 45.429885001991046, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.6022251451050424 }, "actual_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 36.98823529411765, "Haley Stevens": 56.32941176470588, "Mallory McMorrow": 6.682352941176471 }, "mae_points": 9.319769705857512 } ] }, "v1": { "available": true, "mae_points": 6.834870620547476, "counties_scored": 35, "counties_skipped_noninformative": 12, "informative_votes": 139816.0, "informative_vote_coverage": 0.9230180159364128, "county_examples": [ { "cid": "fips:26163", "county": "Wayne", "new_votes": 49157, "reporting_advance_points": 16.16, "source": "county live share", "geography_level": "county", "effective_sample_votes": 20729, "expected_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 47.54209079067972, "Haley Stevens": 49.46210622798977, "Mallory McMorrow": 2.9958029813305034 }, "actual_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 28.76497752100413, "Haley Stevens": 67.39426734747849, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.840755131517383 }, "mae_points": 12.518075513117063 }, { "cid": "fips:26081", "county": "Kent", "new_votes": 23536, "reporting_advance_points": 28.34, "source": "county live share", "geography_level": "county", "effective_sample_votes": 21057, "expected_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 53.63537066058793, "Haley Stevens": 40.71805100441658, "Mallory McMorrow": 5.646578334995488 }, "actual_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 74.57087015635622, "Haley Stevens": 23.504418762746432, "Mallory McMorrow": 1.9247110808973487 }, "mae_points": 13.956999663845524 }, { "cid": "fips:26065", "county": "Ingham", "new_votes": 10518, "reporting_advance_points": 19.069999999999997, "source": "county live share", "geography_level": "county", "effective_sample_votes": 8363, "expected_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 54.07150544063135, "Haley Stevens": 40.34437402845869, "Mallory McMorrow": 5.584120530909961 }, "actual_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 74.51036318691766, "Haley Stevens": 23.217341699942956, "Mallory McMorrow": 2.27229511313938 }, "mae_points": 13.625905164190874 }, { "cid": "fips:26125", "county": "Oakland", "new_votes": 8891, "reporting_advance_points": 3.5799999999999943, "source": "county live share", "geography_level": "county", "effective_sample_votes": 180770, "expected_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 47.54992531946672, "Haley Stevens": 49.76212867179289, "Mallory McMorrow": 2.687946008740388 }, "actual_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 46.69890900911034, "Haley Stevens": 49.81441907546957, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.486671915420088 }, "mae_points": 0.5673442069042582 }, { "cid": "fips:26147", "county": "St. Clair", "new_votes": 5847, "reporting_advance_points": 32.78, "source": "county live share", "geography_level": "county", "effective_sample_votes": 362, "expected_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 37.84530386740331, "Haley Stevens": 58.28729281767956, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.867403314917127 }, "actual_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 43.5608004104669, "Haley Stevens": 52.14639986317769, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.292799726355396 }, "mae_points": 4.093928636334575 }, { "cid": "fips:26099", "county": "Macomb", "new_votes": 4815, "reporting_advance_points": 4.180000000000001, "source": "county live share", "geography_level": "county", "effective_sample_votes": 26761, "expected_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 59.17566608123762, "Haley Stevens": 38.26090205896641, "Mallory McMorrow": 2.5634318597959718 }, "actual_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 41.76531671858775, "Haley Stevens": 54.47559709241953, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.7590861889927307 }, "mae_points": 11.606899575099918 }, { "cid": "fips:26139", "county": "Ottawa", "new_votes": 3697, "reporting_advance_points": 14.790000000000006, "source": "county live share", "geography_level": "county", "effective_sample_votes": 5930, "expected_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 55.19392917369309, "Haley Stevens": 40.01686340640809, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.789207419898819 }, "actual_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 51.06843386529618, "Haley Stevens": 44.76602650797945, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.165539626724371 }, "mae_points": 3.1661087343809036 }, { "cid": "fips:26029", "county": "Charlevoix", "new_votes": 2879, "reporting_advance_points": 83.62, "source": "county live share", "geography_level": "county", "effective_sample_votes": 460, "expected_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 54.347826086956516, "Haley Stevens": 38.04347826086957, "Mallory McMorrow": 7.608695652173914 }, "actual_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 48.66273011462313, "Haley Stevens": 46.960750260507126, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.376519624869746 }, "mae_points": 5.9448479997583705 }, { "cid": "fips:26115", "county": "Monroe", "new_votes": 2796, "reporting_advance_points": 17.750000000000004, "source": "county live share", "geography_level": "county", "effective_sample_votes": 371, "expected_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 45.82210242587601, "Haley Stevens": 46.900269541778975, "Mallory McMorrow": 7.277628032345014 }, "actual_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 44.20600858369099, "Haley Stevens": 50.82260371959942, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.971387696709585 }, "mae_points": 2.6148894518802996 }, { "cid": "fips:26015", "county": "Barry", "new_votes": 2664, "reporting_advance_points": 45.190000000000005, "source": "county live share", "geography_level": "county", "effective_sample_votes": 376, "expected_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 38.56382978723404, "Haley Stevens": 53.72340425531915, "Mallory McMorrow": 7.712765957446808 }, "actual_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 40.57807807807808, "Haley Stevens": 53.9039039039039, "Mallory McMorrow": 5.518018018018018 }, "mae_points": 1.4631652929525258 }, { "cid": "fips:26145", "county": "Saginaw", "new_votes": 2388, "reporting_advance_points": 8.940000000000001, "source": "county live share", "geography_level": "county", "effective_sample_votes": 2044, "expected_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 43.88454011741683, "Haley Stevens": 52.20156555772994, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.9138943248532287 }, "actual_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 43.84422110552764, "Haley Stevens": 50.67001675041875, "Mallory McMorrow": 5.485762144053601 }, "mae_points": 1.0479118794669189 }, { "cid": "fips:26155", "county": "Shiawassee", "new_votes": 1786, "reporting_advance_points": 22.109999999999996, "source": "county live share", "geography_level": "county", "effective_sample_votes": 1802, "expected_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 36.90344062153163, "Haley Stevens": 55.04994450610433, "Mallory McMorrow": 8.04661487236404 }, "actual_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 42.44120940649496, "Haley Stevens": 52.07166853303471, "Mallory McMorrow": 5.487122060470324 }, "mae_points": 3.6918458566422228 } ] }, "v3": { "available": true, "mae_points": 6.7457986495370745, "counties_scored": 47, "counties_skipped_noninformative": 0, "informative_votes": 151477.0, "informative_vote_coverage": 1.0, "county_examples": [ { "cid": "fips:26163", "county": "Wayne", "new_votes": 49157, "reporting_advance_points": 16.16, "source": "v3 county remaining-vote prediction", "geography_level": "county", "effective_sample_votes": 20729, "expected_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 50.07389412778912, "Haley Stevens": 46.48213251367657, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.4439733585343144 }, "actual_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 28.76497752100413, "Haley Stevens": 67.39426734747849, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.840755131517383 }, "mae_points": 14.205944404523327 }, { "cid": "fips:26081", "county": "Kent", "new_votes": 23536, "reporting_advance_points": 28.34, "source": "v3 county remaining-vote prediction", "geography_level": "county", "effective_sample_votes": 21057, "expected_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 52.31146368567988, "Haley Stevens": 43.05659824945329, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.631938064866841 }, "actual_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 74.57087015635622, "Haley Stevens": 23.504418762746432, "Mallory McMorrow": 1.9247110808973487 }, "mae_points": 14.839604313784227 }, { "cid": "fips:26065", "county": "Ingham", "new_votes": 10518, "reporting_advance_points": 19.069999999999997, "source": "v3 county remaining-vote prediction", "geography_level": "county", "effective_sample_votes": 8363, "expected_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 52.176308797229076, "Haley Stevens": 43.44979834876933, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.373892854001601 }, "actual_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 74.51036318691766, "Haley Stevens": 23.217341699942956, "Mallory McMorrow": 2.27229511313938 }, "mae_points": 14.889369593125727 }, { "cid": "fips:26125", "county": "Oakland", "new_votes": 8891, "reporting_advance_points": 3.5799999999999943, "source": "v3 county remaining-vote prediction", "geography_level": "county", "effective_sample_votes": 180770, "expected_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 48.23351822615417, "Haley Stevens": 48.89567993783252, "Mallory McMorrow": 2.8708018360133196 }, "actual_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 46.69890900911034, "Haley Stevens": 49.81441907546957, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.486671915420088 }, "mae_points": 1.023072811362551 }, { "cid": "fips:26147", "county": "St. Clair", "new_votes": 5847, "reporting_advance_points": 32.78, "source": "v3 county remaining-vote prediction", "geography_level": "county", "effective_sample_votes": 362, "expected_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 49.09820914812537, "Haley Stevens": 47.26178363332964, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.640007218544985 }, "actual_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 43.5608004104669, "Haley Stevens": 52.14639986317769, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.292799726355396 }, "mae_points": 3.691605825105642 }, { "cid": "fips:26099", "county": "Macomb", "new_votes": 4815, "reporting_advance_points": 4.180000000000001, "source": "v3 county remaining-vote prediction", "geography_level": "county", "effective_sample_votes": 26761, "expected_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 54.92383364670649, "Haley Stevens": 41.974613708966004, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.101552644327512 }, "actual_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 41.76531671858775, "Haley Stevens": 54.47559709241953, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.7590861889927307 }, "mae_points": 8.772344618745826 }, { "cid": "fips:26139", "county": "Ottawa", "new_votes": 3697, "reporting_advance_points": 14.790000000000006, "source": "v3 county remaining-vote prediction", "geography_level": "county", "effective_sample_votes": 5930, "expected_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 53.02697303240864, "Haley Stevens": 42.79246001095257, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.1805669566388035 }, "actual_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 51.06843386529618, "Haley Stevens": 44.76602650797945, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.165539626724371 }, "mae_points": 1.3157109980179245 }, { "cid": "fips:26029", "county": "Charlevoix", "new_votes": 2879, "reporting_advance_points": 83.62, "source": "v3 county remaining-vote prediction", "geography_level": "county", "effective_sample_votes": 460, "expected_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 52.20330162685646, "Haley Stevens": 42.73005482080371, "Mallory McMorrow": 5.066643552339838 }, "actual_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 48.66273011462313, "Haley Stevens": 46.960750260507126, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.376519624869746 }, "mae_points": 2.820463626468943 }, { "cid": "fips:26115", "county": "Monroe", "new_votes": 2796, "reporting_advance_points": 17.750000000000004, "source": "v3 county remaining-vote prediction", "geography_level": "county", "effective_sample_votes": 371, "expected_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 50.179055577699216, "Haley Stevens": 45.65529068366059, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.165653738640194 }, "actual_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 44.20600858369099, "Haley Stevens": 50.82260371959942, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.971387696709585 }, "mae_points": 3.982031329338819 }, { "cid": "fips:26015", "county": "Barry", "new_votes": 2664, "reporting_advance_points": 45.190000000000005, "source": "v3 county remaining-vote prediction", "geography_level": "county", "effective_sample_votes": 376, "expected_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 47.83479026144609, "Haley Stevens": 47.52471698819415, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.640492750359757 }, "actual_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 40.57807807807808, "Haley Stevens": 53.9039039039039, "Mallory McMorrow": 5.518018018018018 }, "mae_points": 4.837808122245342 }, { "cid": "fips:26145", "county": "Saginaw", "new_votes": 2388, "reporting_advance_points": 8.940000000000001, "source": "v3 county remaining-vote prediction", "geography_level": "county", "effective_sample_votes": 2044, "expected_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 49.007452042055974, "Haley Stevens": 47.30406305336484, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.688484904579179 }, "actual_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 43.84422110552764, "Haley Stevens": 50.67001675041875, "Mallory McMorrow": 5.485762144053601 }, "mae_points": 3.4421539576855587 }, { "cid": "fips:26157", "county": "Tuscola", "new_votes": 2125, "reporting_advance_points": 41.07, "source": "v3 county remaining-vote prediction", "geography_level": "county", "effective_sample_votes": 0, "expected_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 50.967889852903916, "Haley Stevens": 45.429885001991046, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.6022251451050424 }, "actual_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 36.98823529411765, "Haley Stevens": 56.32941176470588, "Mallory McMorrow": 6.682352941176471 }, "mae_points": 9.319769705857512 } ] }, "market": { "available": false, "counties_scored": 0, "counties_skipped_noninformative": 47, "informative_vote_coverage": 0.0 }, "histgeo": { "available": true, "mae_points": 6.487931095878778, "counties_scored": 47, "counties_skipped_noninformative": 0, "informative_votes": 151477.0, "informative_vote_coverage": 1.0, "county_examples": [ { "cid": "fips:26163", "county": "Wayne", "new_votes": 49157, "reporting_advance_points": 16.16, "source": "histgeo county remaining-vote prediction", "geography_level": "county", "effective_sample_votes": 20729, "expected_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 50.125825302123936, "Haley Stevens": 46.23395082355193, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.6402238743241346 }, "actual_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 28.76497752100413, "Haley Stevens": 67.39426734747849, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.840755131517383 }, "mae_points": 14.240565187413203 }, { "cid": "fips:26081", "county": "Kent", "new_votes": 23536, "reporting_advance_points": 28.34, "source": "histgeo county remaining-vote prediction", "geography_level": "county", "effective_sample_votes": 21057, "expected_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 52.86591874301247, "Haley Stevens": 42.455261975907035, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.678819281080491 }, "actual_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 74.57087015635622, "Haley Stevens": 23.504418762746432, "Mallory McMorrow": 1.9247110808973487 }, "mae_points": 14.469967608895828 }, { "cid": "fips:26065", "county": "Ingham", "new_votes": 10518, "reporting_advance_points": 19.069999999999997, "source": "histgeo county remaining-vote prediction", "geography_level": "county", "effective_sample_votes": 8363, "expected_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 52.211298474756404, "Haley Stevens": 43.20158001628549, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.587121508958111 }, "actual_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 74.51036318691766, "Haley Stevens": 23.217341699942956, "Mallory McMorrow": 2.27229511313938 }, "mae_points": 14.86604314144084 }, { "cid": "fips:26125", "county": "Oakland", "new_votes": 8891, "reporting_advance_points": 3.5799999999999943, "source": "histgeo county remaining-vote prediction", "geography_level": "county", "effective_sample_votes": 180770, "expected_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 47.95324281137729, "Haley Stevens": 49.18618216577857, "Mallory McMorrow": 2.860575022844146 }, "actual_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 46.69890900911034, "Haley Stevens": 49.81441907546957, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.486671915420088 }, "mae_points": 0.8362225348446337 }, { "cid": "fips:26147", "county": "St. Clair", "new_votes": 5847, "reporting_advance_points": 32.78, "source": "histgeo county remaining-vote prediction", "geography_level": "county", "effective_sample_votes": 362, "expected_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 48.535555832827335, "Haley Stevens": 47.502615415356544, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.9618287518161313 }, "actual_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 43.5608004104669, "Haley Stevens": 52.14639986317769, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.292799726355396 }, "mae_points": 3.3165036149069502 }, { "cid": "fips:26099", "county": "Macomb", "new_votes": 4815, "reporting_advance_points": 4.180000000000001, "source": "histgeo county remaining-vote prediction", "geography_level": "county", "effective_sample_votes": 26761, "expected_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 54.67440611335229, "Haley Stevens": 42.05103184999826, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.274562036649452 }, "actual_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 41.76531671858775, "Haley Stevens": 54.47559709241953, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.7590861889927307 }, "mae_points": 8.606059596509697 }, { "cid": "fips:26139", "county": "Ottawa", "new_votes": 3697, "reporting_advance_points": 14.790000000000006, "source": "histgeo county remaining-vote prediction", "geography_level": "county", "effective_sample_votes": 5930, "expected_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 53.117969590833724, "Haley Stevens": 42.60737988905546, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.2746505201108285 }, "actual_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 51.06843386529618, "Haley Stevens": 44.76602650797945, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.165539626724371 }, "mae_points": 1.4390977459493295 }, { "cid": "fips:26029", "county": "Charlevoix", "new_votes": 2879, "reporting_advance_points": 83.62, "source": "histgeo county remaining-vote prediction", "geography_level": "county", "effective_sample_votes": 460, "expected_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 51.496570480693194, "Haley Stevens": 43.175942698887326, "Mallory McMorrow": 5.327486820419485 }, "actual_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 48.66273011462313, "Haley Stevens": 46.960750260507126, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.376519624869746 }, "mae_points": 2.523205041079865 }, { "cid": "fips:26115", "county": "Monroe", "new_votes": 2796, "reporting_advance_points": 17.750000000000004, "source": "histgeo county remaining-vote prediction", "geography_level": "county", "effective_sample_votes": 371, "expected_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 49.26852708019372, "Haley Stevens": 46.22337496160265, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.508097958203628 }, "actual_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 44.20600858369099, "Haley Stevens": 50.82260371959942, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.971387696709585 }, "mae_points": 3.3750123310018196 }, { "cid": "fips:26015", "county": "Barry", "new_votes": 2664, "reporting_advance_points": 45.190000000000005, "source": "histgeo county remaining-vote prediction", "geography_level": "county", "effective_sample_votes": 376, "expected_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 47.40999053308697, "Haley Stevens": 47.664564501627794, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.925444965285247 }, "actual_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 40.57807807807808, "Haley Stevens": 53.9039039039039, "Mallory McMorrow": 5.518018018018018 }, "mae_points": 4.554608303339258 }, { "cid": "fips:26145", "county": "Saginaw", "new_votes": 2388, "reporting_advance_points": 8.940000000000001, "source": "histgeo county remaining-vote prediction", "geography_level": "county", "effective_sample_votes": 2044, "expected_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 47.905214943331714, "Haley Stevens": 48.04209420175779, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.052690854910493 }, "actual_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 43.84422110552764, "Haley Stevens": 50.67001675041875, "Mallory McMorrow": 5.485762144053601 }, "mae_points": 2.7073292252027175 }, { "cid": "fips:26157", "county": "Tuscola", "new_votes": 2125, "reporting_advance_points": 41.07, "source": "histgeo county remaining-vote prediction", "geography_level": "county", "effective_sample_votes": 0, "expected_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 49.60972721257719, "Haley Stevens": 46.285781547266446, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.104491240156357 }, "actual_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 36.98823529411765, "Haley Stevens": 56.32941176470588, "Mallory McMorrow": 6.682352941176471 }, "mae_points": 8.414327945639698 } ] }, "latent": { "available": true, "mae_points": 6.484168778307326, "counties_scored": 47, "counties_skipped_noninformative": 0, "informative_votes": 151477.0, "informative_vote_coverage": 1.0, "county_examples": [ { "cid": "fips:26163", "county": "Wayne", "new_votes": 49157, "reporting_advance_points": 16.16, "source": "latent county remaining-vote prediction", "geography_level": "county", "effective_sample_votes": 20729, "expected_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 49.20266775799501, "Haley Stevens": 46.83595400751956, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.9613782344854314 }, "actual_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 28.76497752100413, "Haley Stevens": 67.39426734747849, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.840755131517383 }, "mae_points": 13.705542226639286 }, { "cid": "fips:26081", "county": "Kent", "new_votes": 23536, "reporting_advance_points": 28.34, "source": "latent county remaining-vote prediction", "geography_level": "county", "effective_sample_votes": 21057, "expected_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 51.72623094734621, "Haley Stevens": 43.294333710134715, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.9794353425190865 }, "actual_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 74.57087015635622, "Haley Stevens": 23.504418762746432, "Mallory McMorrow": 1.9247110808973487 }, "mae_points": 15.229759472673344 }, { "cid": "fips:26065", "county": "Ingham", "new_votes": 10518, "reporting_advance_points": 19.069999999999997, "source": "latent county remaining-vote prediction", "geography_level": "county", "effective_sample_votes": 8363, "expected_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 51.42042251531833, "Haley Stevens": 43.77176432159398, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.807813163087696 }, "actual_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 74.51036318691766, "Haley Stevens": 23.217341699942956, "Mallory McMorrow": 2.27229511313938 }, "mae_points": 15.393293781066223 }, { "cid": "fips:26125", "county": "Oakland", "new_votes": 8891, "reporting_advance_points": 3.5799999999999943, "source": "latent county remaining-vote prediction", "geography_level": "county", "effective_sample_votes": 180770, "expected_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 47.86858059684536, "Haley Stevens": 49.20605080297822, "Mallory McMorrow": 2.9253686001764203 }, "actual_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 46.69890900911034, "Haley Stevens": 49.81441907546957, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.486671915420088 }, "mae_points": 0.7797810584900167 }, { "cid": "fips:26147", "county": "St. Clair", "new_votes": 5847, "reporting_advance_points": 32.78, "source": "latent county remaining-vote prediction", "geography_level": "county", "effective_sample_votes": 362, "expected_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 48.019034995259474, "Haley Stevens": 47.728459092050564, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.2525059126899665 }, "actual_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 43.5608004104669, "Haley Stevens": 52.14639986317769, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.292799726355396 }, "mae_points": 2.9721563898617105 }, { "cid": "fips:26099", "county": "Macomb", "new_votes": 4815, "reporting_advance_points": 4.180000000000001, "source": "latent county remaining-vote prediction", "geography_level": "county", "effective_sample_votes": 26761, "expected_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 54.28714342072555, "Haley Stevens": 42.24400611307379, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.4688504662006716 }, "actual_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 41.76531671858775, "Haley Stevens": 54.47559709241953, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.7590861889927307 }, "mae_points": 8.347884468091864 }, { "cid": "fips:26139", "county": "Ottawa", "new_votes": 3697, "reporting_advance_points": 14.790000000000006, "source": "latent county remaining-vote prediction", "geography_level": "county", "effective_sample_votes": 5930, "expected_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 52.39974354558976, "Haley Stevens": 43.05665506722637, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.543601387183876 }, "actual_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 51.06843386529618, "Haley Stevens": 44.76602650797945, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.165539626724371 }, "mae_points": 1.139580960502052 }, { "cid": "fips:26029", "county": "Charlevoix", "new_votes": 2879, "reporting_advance_points": 83.62, "source": "latent county remaining-vote prediction", "geography_level": "county", "effective_sample_votes": 460, "expected_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 51.3936039743047, "Haley Stevens": 43.08456647754228, "Mallory McMorrow": 5.521829548153007 }, "actual_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 48.66273011462313, "Haley Stevens": 46.960750260507126, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.376519624869746 }, "mae_points": 2.584122521976558 }, { "cid": "fips:26115", "county": "Monroe", "new_votes": 2796, "reporting_advance_points": 17.750000000000004, "source": "latent county remaining-vote prediction", "geography_level": "county", "effective_sample_votes": 371, "expected_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 49.105881968755696, "Haley Stevens": 46.12233874026968, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.771779290974622 }, "actual_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 44.20600858369099, "Haley Stevens": 50.82260371959942, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.971387696709585 }, "mae_points": 3.2665822567098046 }, { "cid": "fips:26015", "county": "Barry", "new_votes": 2664, "reporting_advance_points": 45.190000000000005, "source": "latent county remaining-vote prediction", "geography_level": "county", "effective_sample_votes": 376, "expected_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 46.90152521784016, "Haley Stevens": 47.92543567911002, "Mallory McMorrow": 5.173039103049836 }, "actual_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 40.57807807807808, "Haley Stevens": 53.9039039039039, "Mallory McMorrow": 5.518018018018018 }, "mae_points": 4.21563142650805 }, { "cid": "fips:26145", "county": "Saginaw", "new_votes": 2388, "reporting_advance_points": 8.940000000000001, "source": "latent county remaining-vote prediction", "geography_level": "county", "effective_sample_votes": 2044, "expected_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 48.0938870903444, "Haley Stevens": 47.700444215114324, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.205668694541275 }, "actual_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 43.84422110552764, "Haley Stevens": 50.67001675041875, "Mallory McMorrow": 5.485762144053601 }, "mae_points": 2.8331106565445072 }, { "cid": "fips:26157", "county": "Tuscola", "new_votes": 2125, "reporting_advance_points": 41.07, "source": "latent county remaining-vote prediction", "geography_level": "county", "effective_sample_votes": 0, "expected_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 49.698343639039564, "Haley Stevens": 45.983196871296826, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.318459489663614 }, "actual_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 36.98823529411765, "Haley Stevens": 56.32941176470588, "Mallory McMorrow": 6.682352941176471 }, "mae_points": 8.473405563281275 } ] }, "batchbias": { "available": true, "mae_points": 9.178532222765343, "counties_scored": 7, "counties_skipped_noninformative": 40, "informative_votes": 86527.0, "informative_vote_coverage": 0.5712220337080877, "county_examples": [ { "cid": "fips:26163", "county": "Wayne", "new_votes": 49157, "reporting_advance_points": 16.16, "source": "batchbias county remaining-vote prediction", "geography_level": "county", "effective_sample_votes": 20729, "expected_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 49.173554469298, "Haley Stevens": 47.22657380496897, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.599871725733026 }, "actual_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 28.76497752100413, "Haley Stevens": 67.39426734747849, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.840755131517383 }, "mae_points": 13.605717965529246 }, { "cid": "fips:26081", "county": "Kent", "new_votes": 23536, "reporting_advance_points": 28.34, "source": "batchbias county remaining-vote prediction", "geography_level": "county", "effective_sample_votes": 21057, "expected_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 53.455209852016964, "Haley Stevens": 42.40698126690375, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.137808881079283 }, "actual_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 74.57087015635622, "Haley Stevens": 23.504418762746432, "Mallory McMorrow": 1.9247110808973487 }, "mae_points": 14.077106869559502 }, { "cid": "fips:26125", "county": "Oakland", "new_votes": 8891, "reporting_advance_points": 3.5799999999999943, "source": "batchbias county remaining-vote prediction", "geography_level": "county", "effective_sample_votes": 180770, "expected_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 46.954704278051004, "Haley Stevens": 50.12342220413376, "Mallory McMorrow": 2.9218735178152464 }, "actual_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 46.69890900911034, "Haley Stevens": 49.81441907546957, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.486671915420088 }, "mae_points": 0.37653226506990045 }, { "cid": "fips:26145", "county": "Saginaw", "new_votes": 2388, "reporting_advance_points": 8.940000000000001, "source": "batchbias county remaining-vote prediction", "geography_level": "county", "effective_sample_votes": 2044, "expected_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 46.941211591468644, "Haley Stevens": 49.08250597460071, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.976282433930647 }, "actual_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 43.84422110552764, "Haley Stevens": 50.67001675041875, "Mallory McMorrow": 5.485762144053601 }, "mae_points": 2.06466032396067 }, { "cid": "fips:26117", "county": "Montcalm", "new_votes": 1118, "reporting_advance_points": 22.009999999999998, "source": "batchbias county remaining-vote prediction", "geography_level": "county", "effective_sample_votes": 2089, "expected_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 42.41130881642825, "Haley Stevens": 53.73735899640677, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.8513321871649837 }, "actual_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 40.07155635062612, "Haley Stevens": 57.066189624329155, "Mallory McMorrow": 2.862254025044723 }, "mae_points": 2.219220418614926 }, { "cid": "fips:26041", "county": "Delta", "new_votes": 858, "reporting_advance_points": 18.06, "source": "batchbias county remaining-vote prediction", "geography_level": "county", "effective_sample_votes": 3408, "expected_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 48.021438399732034, "Haley Stevens": 44.14606328551848, "Mallory McMorrow": 7.83249831474947 }, "actual_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 44.40559440559441, "Haley Stevens": 45.45454545454545, "Mallory McMorrow": 10.13986013986014 }, "mae_points": 2.410562662758425 }, { "cid": "fips:26073", "county": "Isabella", "new_votes": 579, "reporting_advance_points": 7.76, "source": "batchbias county remaining-vote prediction", "geography_level": "county", "effective_sample_votes": 1173, "expected_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 50.3907073155487, "Haley Stevens": 45.50862220595188, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.100670478499429 }, "actual_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 44.38687392055268, "Haley Stevens": 49.05008635578584, "Mallory McMorrow": 6.563039723661486 }, "mae_points": 4.002555596664012 } ] } } } ], "matured_votes": 480324, "unique_matured_counties": 66, "average_reporting_advance_points": 32.54357040247833, "base_evidence_before_prediction_coverage": 1.0, "average_informative_vote_coverage": 0.8073991028278135, "evidence": 0.8985538953384007, "models": { "v0": { "mae_points": 6.906826155985889, "raw_score": 0.2154879565916221, "usable_score": 0.21548795659162212, "windows_scored": 4, "informative_vote_coverage": 1.0, "evidence": 1.0, "strength_multiplier": 0.8309628989235827 }, "v1": { "mae_points": 5.82642525665127, "raw_score": 0.27396328767881795, "usable_score": 0.3374278868570438, "windows_scored": 4, "informative_vote_coverage": 0.5930330360340104, "evidence": 0.7700863821896933, "strength_multiplier": 1.1225914112084479 }, "v3": { "mae_points": 6.252361817596126, "raw_score": 0.2492213710187745, "usable_score": 0.2492213710187745, "windows_scored": 4, "informative_vote_coverage": 1.0, "evidence": 1.0, "strength_multiplier": 0.911737424814332 }, "histgeo": { "mae_points": 6.034627187968569, "raw_score": 0.2615765604883897, "usable_score": 0.2615765604883897, "windows_scored": 4, "informative_vote_coverage": 1.0, "evidence": 1.0, "strength_multiplier": 0.9432475941770844 }, "latent": { "mae_points": 6.074996690454159, "raw_score": 0.25924045130541196, "usable_score": 0.25924045130541196, "windows_scored": 4, "informative_vote_coverage": 1.0, "evidence": 1.0, "strength_multiplier": 0.9372073114881438 }, "batchbias": { "mae_points": 7.266906505285562, "raw_score": 0.19891690340660842, "usable_score": 0.37398107276058357, "windows_scored": 4, "informative_vote_coverage": 0.2513615809328703, "evidence": 0.501359732061591, "strength_multiplier": 1.1339236043377035 } }, "best_completion_predictor": "batchbias", "method_note": "V6 scores only genuine ex-ante predictions. Missing county information does not silently become an equal-share prediction. Evidence is reduced by the fraction of matured vote for which each model was actually informative." }, "path_referee": { "available": true, "max_intervals": 4, "intervals": [ { "from_snapshot": 44, "from_filename": "44.json", "to_snapshot": 45, "to_filename": "45.json", "new_votes": 10283, "changed_counties": 13, "correction_votes": 0, "actual_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 46.912379655742484, "Haley Stevens": 47.64173879218127, "Mallory McMorrow": 5.445881552076242 }, "predictions": { "v0": { "available": true, "expected_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 49.893022826195555, "Haley Stevens": 46.51631425463773, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.590662919166728 }, "actual_informative_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 46.912379655742484, "Haley Stevens": 47.64173879218127, "Mallory McMorrow": 5.445881552076242 }, "mae_points": 1.9870954469687074, "informative_votes": 10283.0, "informative_counties": 13, "informative_vote_coverage": 1.0 }, "v1": { "available": true, "expected_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 40.73384504635244, "Haley Stevens": 53.87310293265229, "Mallory McMorrow": 5.393052020995266 }, "actual_informative_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 46.912379655742484, "Haley Stevens": 47.64173879218127, "Mallory McMorrow": 5.445881552076242 }, "mae_points": 4.154242760314012, "informative_votes": 10283.0, "informative_counties": 13, "informative_vote_coverage": 1.0 }, "v3": { "available": true, "expected_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 45.7426995431161, "Haley Stevens": 49.703852554208396, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.553447902675506 }, "actual_informative_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 46.912379655742484, "Haley Stevens": 47.64173879218127, "Mallory McMorrow": 5.445881552076242 }, "mae_points": 1.3747425080180802, "informative_votes": 10283.0, "informative_counties": 13, "informative_vote_coverage": 1.0 }, "market": { "available": false, "informative_vote_coverage": 0.0 }, "temporal": { "available": true, "expected_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 55.72718588646427, "Haley Stevens": 40.35644447781336, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.916369635722363 }, "actual_informative_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 46.912379655742484, "Haley Stevens": 47.64173879218127, "Mallory McMorrow": 5.445881552076242 }, "mae_points": 5.876537487147856, "informative_votes": 10283.0, "informative_counties": 13, "informative_vote_coverage": 1.0 }, "histgeo": { "available": true, "expected_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 45.439653099792146, "Haley Stevens": 49.80819767224371, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.752149227964148 }, "actual_informative_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 46.912379655742484, "Haley Stevens": 47.64173879218127, "Mallory McMorrow": 5.445881552076242 }, "mae_points": 1.4443059200416253, "informative_votes": 10283.0, "informative_counties": 13, "informative_vote_coverage": 1.0 }, "latent": { "available": true, "expected_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 45.31303344063094, "Haley Stevens": 49.774191815828004, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.912774743541047 }, "actual_informative_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 46.912379655742484, "Haley Stevens": 47.64173879218127, "Mallory McMorrow": 5.445881552076242 }, "mae_points": 1.4216353490978257, "informative_votes": 10283.0, "informative_counties": 13, "informative_vote_coverage": 1.0 }, "batchbias": { "available": true, "expected_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 47.44505749966642, "Haley Stevens": 48.65242921520099, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.9025132851325868 }, "actual_informative_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 47.57090012330456, "Haley Stevens": 47.5462392108508, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.882860665844636 }, "mae_points": 0.7374600029001276, "informative_votes": 4055.0, "informative_counties": 3, "informative_vote_coverage": 0.39434017310123504 } } }, { "from_snapshot": 45, "from_filename": "45.json", "to_snapshot": 46, "to_filename": "46.json", "new_votes": 8299, "changed_counties": 14, "correction_votes": 0, "actual_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 45.403060609712014, "Haley Stevens": 50.945897096035665, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.6510422942523193 }, "predictions": { "v0": { "available": true, "expected_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 49.83634447177174, "Haley Stevens": 46.53771474009283, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.6259407881354364 }, "actual_informative_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 45.403060609712014, "Haley Stevens": 50.945897096035665, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.6510422942523193 }, "mae_points": 2.9555225747064804, "informative_votes": 8299.0, "informative_counties": 14, "informative_vote_coverage": 1.0 }, "v1": { "available": true, "expected_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 43.93792542180067, "Haley Stevens": 51.279546695780475, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.782527882418855 }, "actual_informative_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 44.25365062195781, "Haley Stevens": 52.001081665765284, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.745267712276906 }, "mae_points": 0.6915067800946317, "informative_votes": 7396.0, "informative_counties": 13, "informative_vote_coverage": 0.8911917098445595 }, "v3": { "available": true, "expected_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 47.202617179671705, "Haley Stevens": 48.67691523355436, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.120467586773921 }, "actual_informative_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 45.403060609712014, "Haley Stevens": 50.945897096035665, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.6510422942523193 }, "mae_points": 1.5126545749875318, "informative_votes": 8299.0, "informative_counties": 14, "informative_vote_coverage": 1.0 }, "market": { "available": false, "informative_vote_coverage": 0.0 }, "temporal": { "available": true, "expected_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 48.95166975514421, "Haley Stevens": 46.25367983454609, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.794650410309698 }, "actual_informative_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 45.403060609712014, "Haley Stevens": 50.945897096035665, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.6510422942523193 }, "mae_points": 3.1281448409930497, "informative_votes": 8299.0, "informative_counties": 14, "informative_vote_coverage": 1.0 }, "histgeo": { "available": true, "expected_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 46.829161797691896, "Haley Stevens": 48.906742753917, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.2640954483911075 }, "actual_informative_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 45.403060609712014, "Haley Stevens": 50.945897096035665, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.6510422942523193 }, "mae_points": 1.3594362280791126, "informative_votes": 8299.0, "informative_counties": 14, "informative_vote_coverage": 1.0 }, "latent": { "available": true, "expected_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 46.78969893604632, "Haley Stevens": 48.809527059123305, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.40077400483039 }, "actual_informative_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 45.403060609712014, "Haley Stevens": 50.945897096035665, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.6510422942523193 }, "mae_points": 1.424246691274912, "informative_votes": 8299.0, "informative_counties": 14, "informative_vote_coverage": 1.0 }, "batchbias": { "available": true, "expected_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 46.30486078309659, "Haley Stevens": 49.93772850356662, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.7574107133367862 }, "actual_informative_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 44.893832153690596, "Haley Stevens": 51.9969666329626, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.109201213346815 }, "mae_points": 1.3728254195973157, "informative_votes": 3956.0, "informative_counties": 6, "informative_vote_coverage": 0.47668393782383417 } } }, { "from_snapshot": 46, "from_filename": "46.json", "to_snapshot": 47, "to_filename": "47.json", "new_votes": 12360, "changed_counties": 12, "correction_votes": 0, "actual_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 48.57605177993528, "Haley Stevens": 45.98705501618123, "Mallory McMorrow": 5.436893203883495 }, "predictions": { "v0": { "available": true, "expected_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 49.769336822876525, "Haley Stevens": 46.604342987857635, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.626320189265829 }, "actual_informative_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 48.57605177993528, "Haley Stevens": 45.98705501618123, "Mallory McMorrow": 5.436893203883495 }, "mae_points": 1.207048676411774, "informative_votes": 12360.0, "informative_counties": 12, "informative_vote_coverage": 1.0 }, "v1": { "available": true, "expected_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 45.83394374077087, "Haley Stevens": 48.53998571438005, "Mallory McMorrow": 5.626070544849073 }, "actual_informative_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 49.01960784313725, "Haley Stevens": 45.611141652922846, "Mallory McMorrow": 5.3692505039398934 }, "mae_points": 2.123776068244254, "informative_votes": 10914.0, "informative_counties": 11, "informative_vote_coverage": 0.8830097087378641 }, "v3": { "available": true, "expected_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 49.507461788370655, "Haley Stevens": 46.09767875226077, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.394859459368565 }, "actual_informative_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 48.57605177993528, "Haley Stevens": 45.98705501618123, "Mallory McMorrow": 5.436893203883495 }, "mae_points": 0.69468916300995, "informative_votes": 12360.0, "informative_counties": 12, "informative_vote_coverage": 1.0 }, "market": { "available": false, "informative_vote_coverage": 0.0 }, "temporal": { "available": true, "expected_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 48.313214228085386, "Haley Stevens": 47.20571772591945, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.481068045995162 }, "actual_informative_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 48.57605177993528, "Haley Stevens": 45.98705501618123, "Mallory McMorrow": 5.436893203883495 }, "mae_points": 0.8124418064921474, "informative_votes": 12360.0, "informative_counties": 12, "informative_vote_coverage": 1.0 }, "histgeo": { "available": true, "expected_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 49.240437712980054, "Haley Stevens": 46.16285588687788, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.596706400142085 }, "actual_informative_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 48.57605177993528, "Haley Stevens": 45.98705501618123, "Mallory McMorrow": 5.436893203883495 }, "mae_points": 0.5601245358276125, "informative_votes": 12360.0, "informative_counties": 12, "informative_vote_coverage": 1.0 }, "latent": { "available": true, "expected_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 48.98007255231334, "Haley Stevens": 46.24944224067742, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.770485207009243 }, "actual_informative_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 48.57605177993528, "Haley Stevens": 45.98705501618123, "Mallory McMorrow": 5.436893203883495 }, "mae_points": 0.4442719979161677, "informative_votes": 12360.0, "informative_counties": 12, "informative_vote_coverage": 1.0 }, "batchbias": { "available": true, "expected_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 56.690247232116185, "Haley Stevens": 39.3008838522179, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.008868915665915 }, "actual_informative_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 44.0547176429323, "Haley Stevens": 49.80708523325149, "Mallory McMorrow": 6.138197123816204 }, "mae_points": 8.423686392789254, "informative_votes": 2851.0, "informative_counties": 4, "informative_vote_coverage": 0.23066343042071197 } } }, { "from_snapshot": 47, "from_filename": "47.json", "to_snapshot": 48, "to_filename": "48.json", "new_votes": 7007, "changed_counties": 13, "correction_votes": 0, "actual_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 43.741972313400886, "Haley Stevens": 52.176395033537894, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.081632653061225 }, "predictions": { "v0": { "available": true, "expected_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 49.74306635389337, "Haley Stevens": 46.59075323861076, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.666180407495872 }, "actual_informative_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 43.741972313400886, "Haley Stevens": 52.176395033537894, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.081632653061225 }, "mae_points": 4.0007293603283225, "informative_votes": 7007.0, "informative_counties": 13, "informative_vote_coverage": 1.0 }, "v1": { "available": true, "expected_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 48.540743186013856, "Haley Stevens": 46.988704161038484, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.470552652947669 }, "actual_informative_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 43.741972313400886, "Haley Stevens": 52.176395033537894, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.081632653061225 }, "mae_points": 3.458460581666275, "informative_votes": 7007.0, "informative_counties": 13, "informative_vote_coverage": 1.0 }, "v3": { "available": true, "expected_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 47.669465616785686, "Haley Stevens": 48.188609524707815, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.141924858506494 }, "actual_informative_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 43.741972313400886, "Haley Stevens": 52.176395033537894, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.081632653061225 }, "mae_points": 2.658523672553382, "informative_votes": 7007.0, "informative_counties": 13, "informative_vote_coverage": 1.0 }, "market": { "available": false, "informative_vote_coverage": 0.0 }, "temporal": { "available": true, "expected_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 46.74926691132724, "Haley Stevens": 48.22482810197041, "Mallory McMorrow": 5.025904986702358 }, "actual_informative_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 43.741972313400886, "Haley Stevens": 52.176395033537894, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.081632653061225 }, "mae_points": 2.6343779543783254, "informative_votes": 7007.0, "informative_counties": 13, "informative_vote_coverage": 1.0 }, "histgeo": { "available": true, "expected_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 47.30583027839844, "Haley Stevens": 48.36296695243763, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.331202769163922 }, "actual_informative_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 43.741972313400886, "Haley Stevens": 52.176395033537894, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.081632653061225 }, "mae_points": 2.542285387400171, "informative_votes": 7007.0, "informative_counties": 13, "informative_vote_coverage": 1.0 }, "latent": { "available": true, "expected_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 47.11804708729036, "Haley Stevens": 48.39940756813766, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.482545344571984 }, "actual_informative_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 43.741972313400886, "Haley Stevens": 52.176395033537894, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.081632653061225 }, "mae_points": 2.5179916436001566, "informative_votes": 7007.0, "informative_counties": 13, "informative_vote_coverage": 1.0 }, "batchbias": { "available": true, "expected_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 48.055963038946395, "Haley Stevens": 47.84489101270981, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.099145948343795 }, "actual_informative_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 35.97972972972973, "Haley Stevens": 58.50225225225225, "Mallory McMorrow": 5.518018018018018 }, "mae_points": 8.050822206144446, "informative_votes": 1776.0, "informative_counties": 4, "informative_vote_coverage": 0.2534608248893963 } } } ], "recent_votes": 37949, "current_votes": 568436, "base_evidence_before_prediction_coverage": 0.6090081831189499, "evidence": 0.576430440892034, "models": { "v0": { "mae_points": 2.580130181238737, "raw_score": 0.6255559038509592, "usable_score": 0.5960141637281827, "intervals_scored": 4, "informative_vote_coverage": 1.0, "evidence": 0.6090081831189499, "strength_multiplier": 0.9812438454252695 }, "v1": { "mae_points": 2.6598957565382926, "raw_score": 0.6165490421199756, "usable_score": 0.589254528735769, "intervals_scored": 4, "informative_vote_coverage": 0.9381011357348019, "evidence": 0.5898586588970036, "strength_multiplier": 0.9750012092920427 }, "v3": { "mae_points": 1.6038061488256483, "raw_score": 0.7470664679400999, "usable_score": 0.6700150915938691, "intervals_scored": 4, "informative_vote_coverage": 1.0, "evidence": 0.6090081831189499, "strength_multiplier": 1.0617656888583238 }, "temporal": { "mae_points": 2.706784088574817, "raw_score": 0.6113152095706379, "usable_score": 0.5873414643781718, "intervals_scored": 4, "informative_vote_coverage": 1.0, "evidence": 0.6090081831189499, "strength_multiplier": 0.9722159430034651 }, "histgeo": { "mae_points": 1.5063318700354804, "raw_score": 0.7604244446243752, "usable_score": 0.6781502087045048, "intervals_scored": 4, "informative_vote_coverage": 1.0, "evidence": 0.6090081831189499, "strength_multiplier": 1.0710113447458673 }, "latent": { "mae_points": 1.4705268821986817, "raw_score": 0.7653909545213564, "usable_score": 0.6811748538733077, "intervals_scored": 4, "informative_vote_coverage": 1.0, "evidence": 0.6090081831189499, "strength_multiplier": 1.0744693835027321 }, "batchbias": { "mae_points": 5.149149818123109, "raw_score": 0.3921114933421971, "usable_score": 0.49451026475286897, "intervals_scored": 4, "informative_vote_coverage": 0.3330259031858547, "evidence": 0.35144885730913816, "strength_multiplier": 0.9292707205818581 } }, "best_recent_predictor": "latent", "method_note": "V6 Path Referee scores only genuine ex-ante predictions on the exact geography that reported next. This score drives path simulation, not the final-result mixture." }, "raw_guard": { "shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 0.49231441721719627, "Haley Stevens": 0.47038446760480607, "Mallory McMorrow": 0.03730111517799768 }, "release_fraction": 0.6981828066327005, "raw_leader": "Abdul El-Sayed", "mixture_leader": "Abdul El-Sayed", "raw_stability": { "available": true, "reference_candidate": "Abdul El-Sayed", "score": 0.9602183580341994, "dispersion_points": 0.1420809743461143, "sign_consistency": 1.0, "margins_points": [ 3.3767085715578347, 3.2986297316789037, 3.1649938350189144, 3.152313115282607, 3.0094856764877664 ] }, "weighted_final_quality": 0.3438507686826209, "raw_final_quality": 0.21548795659162212, "skill_advantage": 0.12836281209099876, "completion_evidence": 0.8985538953384007, "specialist_override": 0.0, "specialist_details": [], "benchmark_release": 0.0, "consensus_release": 0.0, "benchmark_candidate": "Abdul El-Sayed", "benchmark_evidence": 0.6671350391989715, "crossover_consensus": { "available": false, "raw_leader": "Abdul El-Sayed", "candidate": null, "eligible": false, "score": 0.0, "independent_families": 0, "candidates": {} }, "method_note": "The raw scoreboard is a guarded baseline, not a veto. V6 can release the guard through generic completion skill, specialist held-out exams, or broad county-benchmark beats confirmed by independent expert families." }, "reporting_path_profile": { "available": true, "intervals": 12, "live_evidence": 1.0, "median_dump_votes": 10525.0, "dump_log_sigma": 0.7145720676419697, "median_cadence_seconds": null, "county_recurrence": { "fips:26027": 2, "fips:26073": 5, "fips:26155": 3, "fips:26105": 2, "fips:26013": 1, "fips:26065": 4, "fips:26081": 5, "fips:26041": 4, "fips:26147": 6, "fips:26037": 1, "fips:26165": 1, "fips:26145": 5, "fips:26139": 5, "fips:26107": 2, "fips:26125": 4, "fips:26113": 2, "fips:26047": 1, "fips:26059": 3, "fips:26035": 3, "fips:26057": 7, "fips:26163": 4, "fips:26085": 3, "fips:26117": 3, "fips:26061": 1, "fips:26135": 2, "fips:26111": 4, "fips:26131": 1, "fips:26039": 2, "fips:26069": 2, "fips:26099": 2, "fips:26127": 2, "fips:26021": 2, "fips:26133": 5, "fips:26151": 3, "fips:26025": 1, "fips:26029": 1, "fips:26033": 1, "fips:26159": 4, "fips:26075": 1, "fips:26141": 1, "fips:26115": 2, "fips:26007": 1, "fips:26143": 3, "fips:26157": 2, "fips:26049": 1, "fips:26077": 1, "fips:26045": 2, "fips:26063": 1, "fips:26149": 1, "fips:26093": 1, "fips:26089": 1, "fips:26079": 1, "fips:26015": 1, "fips:26023": 1, "fips:26097": 1, "fips:26055": 1 }, "market_activity_votes": { "DETROIT (MI)": 80645.00000000001, "GRAND RAPIDS (MI) - KALAMAZOO (MI) - BATTLE CREEK (MI)": 43525.00000000001, "SOUTH BEND (IN) - ELKHART (IN)": 2415.0, "MARQUETTE (MI)": 2911.0000000000005, "TRAVERSE CITY (MI) - CADILLAC (MI)": 20646.000000000004, "LANSING (MI)": 13956.000000000004, "ALPENA (MI)": 1634.0000000000005, "FLINT (MI) - SAGINAW (MI) - BAY CITY (MI)": 12730.000000000002 }, "historical_profile_used": false, "historical_profile_races": 0, "historical_profile_intervals": 0, "historical_profile_source_races": [], "method_note": "V6 blends current-race prior dumps with a state historical reporting profile from other archived races when available. The current race is automatically excluded from its own historical profile." }, "model_disagreement_points": { "v0": 0.4178946727704619, "v1": 0.6121060510461522, "v3": 0.15036621444837428, "market": 0.18372861667720386, "histgeo": 0.060268517054198195, "latent": 0.09655633481326781, "batchbias": 0.029485862404544694 }, "model_confidence": 0.6640368667250907, "model_confidence_note": "Diagnostic model-quality score only. Candidate win probability is reported separately by Monte Carlo.", "weighted_validation_residual_mae_points": 6.131157946830113, "weighted_final_quality": 0.3438507686826209, "gate_entropy": 0.9588281138752243, "reference_url": "/var/www/html/afi_needle_lab/engine/references/library/mi_democratic_library.json", "reference_library": { "manifest_state": "MI", "manifest_party": "democratic", "references_requested": 4, "references_used": 4, "composite_total_votes": 1023978, "weights": [ { "source": "/var/www/html/afi_needle_lab/engine/references/official/mi_official_20260828_152614_195e3b3ae6bf6bb9.json", "election_name": "2024-08-06 \u2014 DEMOCRATIC \u2014 UNITED STATES SENATOR 6 YEAR TERM (1) POSITION", "year": 2024, "party": "democratic", "total_votes": 933844, "counties": 83, "recency_score": 0.7710515858035663, "office_similarity": 0.8, "live_turnout_fit": 0.871831229850376, "weight": 0.4068387284211743 }, { "source": "/var/www/html/afi_needle_lab/engine/references/official/mi_official_20260828_152940_e6d213d83f7d09e3.json", "election_name": "2024-02-27 \u2014 DEMOCRATIC \u2014 PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES 4 YEAR TERM (1) POSITION", "year": 2024, "party": "democratic", "total_votes": 770571, "counties": 83, "recency_score": 0.7710515858035663, "office_similarity": 0.55, "live_turnout_fit": 0.927831640663263, "weight": 0.2908081182152374 }, { "source": "/var/www/html/afi_needle_lab/engine/references/official/mi_official_20260828_153102_eac66d34d9fc7329.json", "election_name": "2020-03-10 \u2014 Democratic \u2014 President of the United States 4 Year Term (1) Position", "year": 2020, "party": "democratic", "total_votes": 1587679, "counties": 83, "recency_score": 0.4584060113052235, "office_similarity": 0.55, "live_turnout_fit": 0.9091247332234232, "weight": 0.17068566047679776 }, { "source": "/var/www/html/afi_needle_lab/engine/references/official/mi_official_20260828_153137_cbbc622d503a8c99.json", "election_name": "2018-08-07 \u2014 Democratic \u2014 Governor 4 Year Term (1) Position", "year": 2018, "party": "democratic", "total_votes": 1131447, "counties": 83, "recency_score": 0.35345468195878016, "office_similarity": 0.55, "live_turnout_fit": 0.9097851703003733, "weight": 0.13166749288679058 } ], "weighting_method": "recency \u00d7 office similarity \u00d7 party match \u00d7 live county-turnout fit, normalized across usable historical races" }, "media_market_source": "/var/www/html/afi_needle_lab/engine/media_markets/mi_media_markets.js", "media_market_available": true, "temporal_available": true, "temporal_role": "path_only", "specialists": { "runoff_transfer_available": false, "latent_coalition_available": true, "batch_bias_available": true, "precinct_hierarchy_available": false, "historical_candidate_geo_available": true }, "why": [ "V3 Remaining Vote currently has the largest V6 expert weight at 21.1%.", "Completion Referee has 90% usable evidence after informative-prediction coverage; Within-County Batch Bias has the best generic maturation score at 7.27 points.", "Latent coalition model compresses 10 historical candidate maps into 4 factors.", "Within-county reporting-order model has 14 informative counties and 38% confidence.", "County Benchmark Breadth favors Abdul El-Sayed with +0.60 points weighted performance versus the dynamic win path and 67% evidence.", "Raw guard released 70% of the experts' requested correction away from the scoreboard.", "Path Referee separately favors Latent Coalition Factors for near-term reporting at 1.47 points MAE; this does not directly change final expert weights." ] }, "v4": { "version": "V6.0", "architecture": "county_benchmark_mixture_of_experts", "weights": { "v0": 0.13153084075531943, "v1": 0.1897648028775624, "v3": 0.21073554896945648, "market": 0.20638761101024167, "histgeo": 0.08614748568391185, "latent": 0.11460896814420396, "batchbias": 0.060824742559304285 }, "structural_strengths": { "v0": 1.8063497561203015, "v1": 1.105433755020258, "v3": 2.1758974823458144, "market": 1.396573426948696, "histgeo": 0.680689563125467, "latent": 1.2417168472295956, "batchbias": 0.5208215817978711 }, "components": [ { "model": "v3", "label": "V3 Remaining Vote", "weight": 0.21073554896945648, "structural_strength": 2.1758974823458144, "gate_cap": 0.44, "validation_log_adjustment": -0.8400519427948487, "benchmark_log_adjustment": 0.0, "weight_pre_benchmark": 0.21073554896945648, "uncertainty_penalty": 0.11261809087980632, "unvalidated_penalty": 0.0, "horizon_validation": { "short_path_quality": 0.6700150915938691, "short_path_evidence": 0.6090081831189499, "maturation_quality": 0.2492213710187745, "maturation_evidence": 1.0, "specialist_exam": { "available": false, "score": 0.0, "mae_points": null, "evidence": 0.0, "exam": null }, "final_quality": 0.2492213710187745, "final_evidence": 1.0, "residual_mae_points": 6.252361817596126 }, "completion_referee": { "mae_points": 6.252361817596126, "raw_score": 0.2492213710187745, "usable_score": 0.2492213710187745, "windows_scored": 4, "informative_vote_coverage": 1.0, "evidence": 1.0, "strength_multiplier": 0.911737424814332 }, "path_referee": { "mae_points": 1.6038061488256483, "raw_score": 0.7470664679400999, "usable_score": 0.6700150915938691, "intervals_scored": 4, "informative_vote_coverage": 1.0, "evidence": 0.6090081831189499, "strength_multiplier": 1.0617656888583238 }, "predicted_leader": "Abdul El-Sayed", "projected_margin_points": 2.225930067021742, "weighted_margin_contribution_points": 0.46908259464144586, "disagreement_points": 0.15036621444837428 }, { "model": "market", "label": "Media Markets", "weight": 0.20638761101024167, "structural_strength": 1.396573426948696, "gate_cap": 0.26, "validation_log_adjustment": 0.0, "benchmark_log_adjustment": 0.0, "weight_pre_benchmark": 0.20638761101024167, "uncertainty_penalty": 0.1, "unvalidated_penalty": 0.52, "horizon_validation": { "short_path_quality": 0.55, "short_path_evidence": 0.0, "maturation_quality": 0.55, "maturation_evidence": 0.0, "specialist_exam": { "available": false, "score": 0.0, "mae_points": null, "evidence": 0.0, "exam": null }, "final_quality": 0.55, "final_evidence": 0.0, "residual_mae_points": 6.0 }, "completion_referee": null, "path_referee": null, "predicted_leader": "Abdul El-Sayed", "projected_margin_points": 2.365273399008383, "weighted_margin_contribution_points": 0.48816312620741426, "disagreement_points": 0.18372861667720386 }, { "model": "v1", "label": "V1 County Geo", "weight": 0.1897648028775624, "structural_strength": 1.105433755020258, "gate_cap": 0.42, "validation_log_adjustment": -0.48442873404169906, "benchmark_log_adjustment": 0.0, "weight_pre_benchmark": 0.18976480287756242, "uncertainty_penalty": 0.09132126283256352, "unvalidated_penalty": 0.0, "horizon_validation": { "short_path_quality": 0.589254528735769, "short_path_evidence": 0.5898586588970036, "maturation_quality": 0.3374278868570438, "maturation_evidence": 0.7700863821896933, "specialist_exam": { "available": false, "score": 0.0, "mae_points": null, "evidence": 0.0, "exam": null }, "final_quality": 0.3374278868570438, "final_evidence": 0.7700863821896933, "residual_mae_points": 5.82642525665127 }, "completion_referee": { "mae_points": 5.82642525665127, "raw_score": 0.27396328767881795, "usable_score": 0.3374278868570438, "windows_scored": 4, "informative_vote_coverage": 0.5930330360340104, "evidence": 0.7700863821896933, "strength_multiplier": 1.1225914112084479 }, "path_referee": { "mae_points": 2.6598957565382926, "raw_score": 0.6165490421199756, "usable_score": 0.589254528735769, "intervals_scored": 4, "informative_vote_coverage": 0.9381011357348019, "evidence": 0.5898586588970036, "strength_multiplier": 0.9750012092920427 }, "predicted_leader": "Abdul El-Sayed", "projected_margin_points": 0.01782936908477084, "weighted_margin_contribution_points": 0.0033833867098028436, "disagreement_points": 0.6121060510461522 }, { "model": "v0", "label": "V0 Raw", "weight": 0.13153084075531943, "structural_strength": 1.8063497561203015, "gate_cap": 0.45, "validation_log_adjustment": -0.9432278708278383, "benchmark_log_adjustment": 0.0, "weight_pre_benchmark": 0.13153084075531943, "uncertainty_penalty": 0.14534130779929444, "unvalidated_penalty": 0.0, "horizon_validation": { "short_path_quality": 0.5960141637281827, "short_path_evidence": 0.6090081831189499, "maturation_quality": 0.21548795659162212, "maturation_evidence": 1.0, "specialist_exam": { "available": false, "score": 0.0, "mae_points": null, "evidence": 0.0, "exam": null }, "final_quality": 0.21548795659162212, "final_evidence": 1.0, "residual_mae_points": 6.906826155985889 }, "completion_referee": { "mae_points": 6.906826155985889, "raw_score": 0.2154879565916221, "usable_score": 0.21548795659162212, "windows_scored": 4, "informative_vote_coverage": 1.0, "evidence": 1.0, "strength_multiplier": 0.8309628989235827 }, "path_referee": { "mae_points": 2.580130181238737, "raw_score": 0.6255559038509592, "usable_score": 0.5960141637281827, "intervals_scored": 4, "informative_vote_coverage": 1.0, "evidence": 0.6090081831189499, "strength_multiplier": 0.9812438454252695 }, "predicted_leader": "Abdul El-Sayed", "projected_margin_points": 3.0094856764877664, "weighted_margin_contribution_points": 0.3958401812695272, "disagreement_points": 0.4178946727704619 }, { "model": "latent", "label": "Latent Coalition Factors", "weight": 0.11460896814420396, "structural_strength": 1.2417168472295956, "gate_cap": 0.2527090325013272, "validation_log_adjustment": -0.9149625020637928, "benchmark_log_adjustment": 0.0, "weight_pre_benchmark": 0.11460896814420397, "uncertainty_penalty": 0.07597029924862557, "unvalidated_penalty": 0.0, "horizon_validation": { "short_path_quality": 0.6811748538733077, "short_path_evidence": 0.6090081831189499, "maturation_quality": 0.25924045130541196, "maturation_evidence": 1.0, "specialist_exam": { "available": true, "score": 0.3705514209458427, "mae_points": 4.9638152794908645, "evidence": 1.0, "exam": "held-out latent coalition factors" }, "final_quality": 0.2926337421975412, "final_evidence": 1.0, "residual_mae_points": 5.5194059849725114 }, "completion_referee": { "mae_points": 6.074996690454159, "raw_score": 0.25924045130541196, "usable_score": 0.25924045130541196, "windows_scored": 4, "informative_vote_coverage": 1.0, "evidence": 1.0, "strength_multiplier": 0.9372073114881438 }, "path_referee": { "mae_points": 1.4705268821986817, "raw_score": 0.7653909545213564, "usable_score": 0.6811748538733077, "intervals_scored": 4, "informative_vote_coverage": 1.0, "evidence": 0.6090081831189499, "strength_multiplier": 1.0744693835027321 }, "predicted_leader": "Abdul El-Sayed", "projected_margin_points": 1.730936529206023, "weighted_margin_contribution_points": 0.19838084953541207, "disagreement_points": 0.09655633481326781 }, { "model": "histgeo", "label": "Historical Coalition Geography", "weight": 0.08614748568391185, "structural_strength": 0.680689563125467, "gate_cap": 0.24249579556172088, "validation_log_adjustment": -0.5927124524518204, "benchmark_log_adjustment": 0.0, "weight_pre_benchmark": 0.08614748568391184, "uncertainty_penalty": 0.051176822994837855, "unvalidated_penalty": 0.0, "horizon_validation": { "short_path_quality": 0.6781502087045048, "short_path_evidence": 0.6090081831189499, "maturation_quality": 0.2615765604883897, "maturation_evidence": 1.0, "specialist_exam": { "available": true, "score": 0.4821328465755259, "mae_points": 4.012445731824946, "evidence": 1.0, "exam": "held-out historical coalition geography" }, "final_quality": 0.32774344631453056, "final_evidence": 1.0, "residual_mae_points": 5.023536459896757 }, "completion_referee": { "mae_points": 6.034627187968569, "raw_score": 0.2615765604883897, "usable_score": 0.2615765604883897, "windows_scored": 4, "informative_vote_coverage": 1.0, "evidence": 1.0, "strength_multiplier": 0.9432475941770844 }, "path_referee": { "mae_points": 1.5063318700354804, "raw_score": 0.7604244446243752, "usable_score": 0.6781502087045048, "intervals_scored": 4, "informative_vote_coverage": 1.0, "evidence": 0.6090081831189499, "strength_multiplier": 1.0710113447458673 }, "predicted_leader": "Abdul El-Sayed", "projected_margin_points": 1.9874391116240175, "weighted_margin_contribution_points": 0.17121288241627655, "disagreement_points": 0.060268517054198195 }, { "model": "batchbias", "label": "Within-County Batch Bias", "weight": 0.060824742559304285, "structural_strength": 0.5208215817978711, "gate_cap": 0.13546403432272314, "validation_log_adjustment": -0.5577821213084185, "benchmark_log_adjustment": 0.0, "weight_pre_benchmark": 0.060824742559304285, "uncertainty_penalty": 0.20755440006452847, "unvalidated_penalty": 0.0, "horizon_validation": { "short_path_quality": 0.49451026475286897, "short_path_evidence": 0.35144885730913816, "maturation_quality": 0.37398107276058357, "maturation_evidence": 0.501359732061591, "specialist_exam": { "available": true, "score": 0.18341567350639373, "mae_points": 9.328001441192093, "evidence": 0.37665726543829686, "exam": "prior-batch residual validation" }, "final_quality": 0.3891476654023228, "final_evidence": 0.6891762118206919, "residual_mae_points": 8.151088001290569 }, "completion_referee": { "mae_points": 7.266906505285562, "raw_score": 0.19891690340660842, "usable_score": 0.37398107276058357, "windows_scored": 4, "informative_vote_coverage": 0.2513615809328703, "evidence": 0.501359732061591, "strength_multiplier": 1.1339236043377035 }, "path_referee": { "mae_points": 5.149149818123109, "raw_score": 0.3921114933421971, "usable_score": 0.49451026475286897, "intervals_scored": 4, "informative_vote_coverage": 0.3330259031858547, "evidence": 0.35144885730913816, "strength_multiplier": 0.9292707205818581 }, "predicted_leader": "Abdul El-Sayed", "projected_margin_points": 1.8737681279252627, "weighted_margin_contribution_points": 0.11397146399688364, "disagreement_points": 0.029485862404544694 } ], "gate": { "weights": { "v0": 0.13153084075531943, "v1": 0.1897648028775624, "v3": 0.21073554896945648, "market": 0.20638761101024167, "histgeo": 0.08614748568391185, "latent": 0.11460896814420396, "batchbias": 0.060824742559304285 }, "experts": { "v0": { "structural_strength": 1.8063497561203015, "completion_multiplier": 0.8309628989235827, "validation_log_adjustment": -0.9432278708278383, "uncertainty_penalty": 0.14534130779929444, "unvalidated_penalty": 0.0, "horizon_validation": { "short_path_quality": 0.5960141637281827, "short_path_evidence": 0.6090081831189499, "maturation_quality": 0.21548795659162212, "maturation_evidence": 1.0, "specialist_exam": { "available": false, "score": 0.0, "mae_points": null, "evidence": 0.0, "exam": null }, "final_quality": 0.21548795659162212, "final_evidence": 1.0, "residual_mae_points": 6.906826155985889 }, "trust_memory": { "available": true, "score": 0.2824971336997282, "windows": 4 }, "weight": 0.13153084075531943, "cap": 0.45, "weight_pre_benchmark": 0.13153084075531943, "benchmark_log_adjustment": 0.0 }, "v1": { "structural_strength": 1.105433755020258, "completion_multiplier": 1.1225914112084479, "validation_log_adjustment": -0.48442873404169906, "uncertainty_penalty": 0.09132126283256352, "unvalidated_penalty": 0.0, "horizon_validation": { "short_path_quality": 0.589254528735769, "short_path_evidence": 0.5898586588970036, "maturation_quality": 0.3374278868570438, "maturation_evidence": 0.7700863821896933, "specialist_exam": { "available": false, "score": 0.0, "mae_points": null, "evidence": 0.0, "exam": null }, "final_quality": 0.3374278868570438, "final_evidence": 0.7700863821896933, "residual_mae_points": 5.82642525665127 }, "trust_memory": { "available": true, "score": 0.3470486468804888, "windows": 4 }, "weight": 0.1897648028775624, "cap": 0.42, "weight_pre_benchmark": 0.18976480287756242, "benchmark_log_adjustment": 0.0 }, "v3": { "structural_strength": 2.1758974823458144, "completion_multiplier": 0.911737424814332, "validation_log_adjustment": -0.8400519427948487, "uncertainty_penalty": 0.11261809087980632, "unvalidated_penalty": 0.0, "horizon_validation": { "short_path_quality": 0.6700150915938691, "short_path_evidence": 0.6090081831189499, "maturation_quality": 0.2492213710187745, "maturation_evidence": 1.0, "specialist_exam": { "available": false, "score": 0.0, "mae_points": null, "evidence": 0.0, "exam": null }, "final_quality": 0.2492213710187745, "final_evidence": 1.0, "residual_mae_points": 6.252361817596126 }, "trust_memory": { "available": true, "score": 0.31842575340636115, "windows": 4 }, "weight": 0.21073554896945648, "cap": 0.44, "weight_pre_benchmark": 0.21073554896945648, "benchmark_log_adjustment": 0.0 }, "market": { "structural_strength": 1.396573426948696, "completion_multiplier": 1.0, "validation_log_adjustment": 0.0, "uncertainty_penalty": 0.1, "unvalidated_penalty": 0.52, "horizon_validation": { "short_path_quality": 0.55, "short_path_evidence": 0.0, "maturation_quality": 0.55, "maturation_evidence": 0.0, "specialist_exam": { "available": false, "score": 0.0, "mae_points": null, "evidence": 0.0, "exam": null }, "final_quality": 0.55, "final_evidence": 0.0, "residual_mae_points": 6.0 }, "trust_memory": { "available": false, "score": 0.55, "windows": 0 }, "weight": 0.20638761101024167, "cap": 0.26, "weight_pre_benchmark": 0.20638761101024167, "benchmark_log_adjustment": 0.0 }, "histgeo": { "structural_strength": 0.680689563125467, "completion_multiplier": 0.9740507111892837, "validation_log_adjustment": -0.5927124524518204, "uncertainty_penalty": 0.051176822994837855, "unvalidated_penalty": 0.0, "horizon_validation": { "short_path_quality": 0.6781502087045048, "short_path_evidence": 0.6090081831189499, "maturation_quality": 0.2615765604883897, "maturation_evidence": 1.0, "specialist_exam": { "available": true, "score": 0.4821328465755259, "mae_points": 4.012445731824946, "evidence": 1.0, "exam": "held-out historical coalition geography" }, "final_quality": 0.32774344631453056, "final_evidence": 1.0, "residual_mae_points": 5.023536459896757 }, "trust_memory": { "available": true, "score": 0.33148227535723174, "windows": 4 }, "weight": 0.08614748568391185, "cap": 0.24249579556172088, "weight_pre_benchmark": 0.08614748568391184, "benchmark_log_adjustment": 0.0 }, "latent": { "structural_strength": 1.2417168472295956, "completion_multiplier": 0.9712388601832956, "validation_log_adjustment": -0.9149625020637928, "uncertainty_penalty": 0.07597029924862557, "unvalidated_penalty": 0.0, "horizon_validation": { "short_path_quality": 0.6811748538733077, "short_path_evidence": 0.6090081831189499, "maturation_quality": 0.25924045130541196, "maturation_evidence": 1.0, "specialist_exam": { "available": true, "score": 0.3705514209458427, "mae_points": 4.9638152794908645, "evidence": 1.0, "exam": "held-out latent coalition factors" }, "final_quality": 0.2926337421975412, "final_evidence": 1.0, "residual_mae_points": 5.5194059849725114 }, "trust_memory": { "available": true, "score": 0.3281039036005744, "windows": 4 }, "weight": 0.11460896814420396, "cap": 0.2527090325013272, "weight_pre_benchmark": 0.11460896814420397, "benchmark_log_adjustment": 0.0 }, "batchbias": { "structural_strength": 0.5208215817978711, "completion_multiplier": 1.0581876975858213, "validation_log_adjustment": -0.5577821213084185, "uncertainty_penalty": 0.20755440006452847, "unvalidated_penalty": 0.0, "horizon_validation": { "short_path_quality": 0.49451026475286897, "short_path_evidence": 0.35144885730913816, "maturation_quality": 0.37398107276058357, "maturation_evidence": 0.501359732061591, "specialist_exam": { "available": true, "score": 0.18341567350639373, "mae_points": 9.328001441192093, "evidence": 0.37665726543829686, "exam": "prior-batch residual validation" }, "final_quality": 0.3891476654023228, "final_evidence": 0.6891762118206919, "residual_mae_points": 8.151088001290569 }, "trust_memory": { "available": true, "score": 0.38219688394581364, "windows": 4 }, "weight": 0.060824742559304285, "cap": 0.13546403432272314, "weight_pre_benchmark": 0.060824742559304285, "benchmark_log_adjustment": 0.0 } }, "horizon_validation": { "v0": { "short_path_quality": 0.5960141637281827, "short_path_evidence": 0.6090081831189499, "maturation_quality": 0.21548795659162212, "maturation_evidence": 1.0, "specialist_exam": { "available": false, "score": 0.0, "mae_points": null, "evidence": 0.0, "exam": null }, "final_quality": 0.21548795659162212, "final_evidence": 1.0, "residual_mae_points": 6.906826155985889 }, "v1": { "short_path_quality": 0.589254528735769, "short_path_evidence": 0.5898586588970036, "maturation_quality": 0.3374278868570438, "maturation_evidence": 0.7700863821896933, "specialist_exam": { "available": false, "score": 0.0, "mae_points": null, "evidence": 0.0, "exam": null }, "final_quality": 0.3374278868570438, "final_evidence": 0.7700863821896933, "residual_mae_points": 5.82642525665127 }, "v3": { "short_path_quality": 0.6700150915938691, "short_path_evidence": 0.6090081831189499, "maturation_quality": 0.2492213710187745, "maturation_evidence": 1.0, "specialist_exam": { "available": false, "score": 0.0, "mae_points": null, "evidence": 0.0, "exam": null }, "final_quality": 0.2492213710187745, "final_evidence": 1.0, "residual_mae_points": 6.252361817596126 }, "market": { "short_path_quality": 0.55, "short_path_evidence": 0.0, "maturation_quality": 0.55, "maturation_evidence": 0.0, "specialist_exam": { "available": false, "score": 0.0, "mae_points": null, "evidence": 0.0, "exam": null }, "final_quality": 0.55, "final_evidence": 0.0, "residual_mae_points": 6.0 }, "histgeo": { "short_path_quality": 0.6781502087045048, "short_path_evidence": 0.6090081831189499, "maturation_quality": 0.2615765604883897, "maturation_evidence": 1.0, "specialist_exam": { "available": true, "score": 0.4821328465755259, "mae_points": 4.012445731824946, "evidence": 1.0, "exam": "held-out historical coalition geography" }, "final_quality": 0.32774344631453056, "final_evidence": 1.0, "residual_mae_points": 5.023536459896757 }, "latent": { "short_path_quality": 0.6811748538733077, "short_path_evidence": 0.6090081831189499, "maturation_quality": 0.25924045130541196, "maturation_evidence": 1.0, "specialist_exam": { "available": true, "score": 0.3705514209458427, "mae_points": 4.9638152794908645, "evidence": 1.0, "exam": "held-out latent coalition factors" }, "final_quality": 0.2926337421975412, "final_evidence": 1.0, "residual_mae_points": 5.5194059849725114 }, "batchbias": { "short_path_quality": 0.49451026475286897, "short_path_evidence": 0.35144885730913816, "maturation_quality": 0.37398107276058357, "maturation_evidence": 0.501359732061591, "specialist_exam": { "available": true, "score": 0.18341567350639373, "mae_points": 9.328001441192093, "evidence": 0.37665726543829686, "exam": "prior-batch residual validation" }, "final_quality": 0.3891476654023228, "final_evidence": 0.6891762118206919, "residual_mae_points": 8.151088001290569 } }, "caps": { "v0": 0.45, "v1": 0.42, "v2r": 0.34, "v3": 0.44, "market": 0.26, "histgeo": 0.24249579556172088, "latent": 0.2527090325013272, "batchbias": 0.13546403432272314, "runoff_transfer": 0.58, "precinct": 0.38 }, "temperature": 0.88, "method_note": "V6 treats models as experts. Structural applicability, genuine completion validation, specialist held-out exams, uncertainty, and dynamic caps feed a softmax gate. A sticky multi-window trust memory adds hysteresis so one dump cannot violently rewrite expert weights. Path accuracy is kept separate. V6 then applies a second-stage county-benchmark breadth gate: independent validated experts that agree with broad county win-path performance can earn more weight.", "weights_pre_benchmark": { "v0": 0.13153084075531943, "v1": 0.18976480287756242, "v3": 0.21073554896945648, "market": 0.20638761101024167, "histgeo": 0.08614748568391184, "latent": 0.11460896814420397, "batchbias": 0.060824742559304285 }, "benchmark_gate_adjustments": { "v0": 0.0, "v1": 0.0, "v3": 0.0, "market": 0.0, "histgeo": 0.0, "latent": 0.0, "batchbias": 0.0 }, "benchmark_signal": { "available": true, "favored_candidate": "Abdul El-Sayed", "least_favored_candidate": "Mallory McMorrow", "evidence": 0.6671350391989715, "favored_signal_score": 0.03915837526743363, "favored_weighted_excess_points": 0.6016278877844345, "favored_breadth_balance": -0.23076923076923078, "candidates": { "Abdul El-Sayed": { "weighted_excess_points": 0.6016278877844345, "above_benchmark_counties": 18, "below_benchmark_counties": 30, "on_benchmark_counties": 4, "unique_counties": 37, "unique_markets": 7, "votes_scored": 37949.0, "breadth_balance": -0.23076923076923078, "evidence": 0.6671350391989715, "signal_score": 0.03915837526743363 }, "Haley Stevens": { "weighted_excess_points": -0.8565954088812535, "above_benchmark_counties": 28, "below_benchmark_counties": 18, "on_benchmark_counties": 6, "unique_counties": 37, "unique_markets": 7, "votes_scored": 37949.0, "breadth_balance": 0.19230769230769232, "evidence": 0.6671350391989715, "signal_score": -0.08767358497472703 }, "Mallory McMorrow": { "weighted_excess_points": -29.590177532489776, "above_benchmark_counties": 0, "below_benchmark_counties": 52, "on_benchmark_counties": 0, "unique_counties": 37, "unique_markets": 7, "votes_scored": 37949.0, "breadth_balance": -1.0, "evidence": 0.6671350391989715, "signal_score": -0.667135039155625 } }, "intervals": [ { "from_snapshot": 44, "to_snapshot": 45, "new_votes": 10283, "changed_counties": 13, "benchmark_observations_scored": 39 }, { "from_snapshot": 45, "to_snapshot": 46, "new_votes": 8299, "changed_counties": 14, "benchmark_observations_scored": 42 }, { "from_snapshot": 46, "to_snapshot": 47, "new_votes": 12360, "changed_counties": 12, "benchmark_observations_scored": 36 }, { "from_snapshot": 47, "to_snapshot": 48, "new_votes": 7007, "changed_counties": 13, "benchmark_observations_scored": 39 } ], "method_note": "V6 rebuilds county tie benchmarks and the preliminary expert gate exactly as they existed at each prior snapshot, then grades only later-arriving vote. Broad, repeated benchmark beats across independent counties are stronger evidence than one friendly dump." }, "crossover_consensus": { "available": false, "raw_leader": "Abdul El-Sayed", "candidate": null, "eligible": false, "score": 0.0, "independent_families": 0, "candidates": {} } }, "preliminary_gate": { "weights": { "v0": 0.13153084075531943, "v1": 0.18976480287756242, "v3": 0.21073554896945648, "market": 0.20638761101024167, "histgeo": 0.08614748568391184, "latent": 0.11460896814420397, "batchbias": 0.060824742559304285 }, "experts": { "v0": { "structural_strength": 1.8063497561203015, "completion_multiplier": 0.8309628989235827, "validation_log_adjustment": -0.9432278708278383, "uncertainty_penalty": 0.14534130779929444, "unvalidated_penalty": 0.0, "horizon_validation": { "short_path_quality": 0.5960141637281827, "short_path_evidence": 0.6090081831189499, "maturation_quality": 0.21548795659162212, "maturation_evidence": 1.0, "specialist_exam": { "available": false, "score": 0.0, "mae_points": null, "evidence": 0.0, "exam": null }, "final_quality": 0.21548795659162212, "final_evidence": 1.0, "residual_mae_points": 6.906826155985889 }, "trust_memory": { "available": true, "score": 0.2824971336997282, "windows": 4 }, "weight": 0.13153084075531943, "cap": 0.45, "weight_pre_benchmark": 0.13153084075531943, "benchmark_log_adjustment": 0.0 }, "v1": { "structural_strength": 1.105433755020258, "completion_multiplier": 1.1225914112084479, "validation_log_adjustment": -0.48442873404169906, "uncertainty_penalty": 0.09132126283256352, "unvalidated_penalty": 0.0, "horizon_validation": { "short_path_quality": 0.589254528735769, "short_path_evidence": 0.5898586588970036, "maturation_quality": 0.3374278868570438, "maturation_evidence": 0.7700863821896933, "specialist_exam": { "available": false, "score": 0.0, "mae_points": null, "evidence": 0.0, "exam": null }, "final_quality": 0.3374278868570438, "final_evidence": 0.7700863821896933, "residual_mae_points": 5.82642525665127 }, "trust_memory": { "available": true, "score": 0.3470486468804888, "windows": 4 }, "weight": 0.1897648028775624, "cap": 0.42, "weight_pre_benchmark": 0.18976480287756242, "benchmark_log_adjustment": 0.0 }, "v3": { "structural_strength": 2.1758974823458144, "completion_multiplier": 0.911737424814332, "validation_log_adjustment": -0.8400519427948487, "uncertainty_penalty": 0.11261809087980632, "unvalidated_penalty": 0.0, "horizon_validation": { "short_path_quality": 0.6700150915938691, "short_path_evidence": 0.6090081831189499, "maturation_quality": 0.2492213710187745, "maturation_evidence": 1.0, "specialist_exam": { "available": false, "score": 0.0, "mae_points": null, "evidence": 0.0, "exam": null }, "final_quality": 0.2492213710187745, "final_evidence": 1.0, "residual_mae_points": 6.252361817596126 }, "trust_memory": { "available": true, "score": 0.31842575340636115, "windows": 4 }, "weight": 0.21073554896945648, "cap": 0.44, "weight_pre_benchmark": 0.21073554896945648, "benchmark_log_adjustment": 0.0 }, "market": { "structural_strength": 1.396573426948696, "completion_multiplier": 1.0, "validation_log_adjustment": 0.0, "uncertainty_penalty": 0.1, "unvalidated_penalty": 0.52, "horizon_validation": { "short_path_quality": 0.55, "short_path_evidence": 0.0, "maturation_quality": 0.55, "maturation_evidence": 0.0, "specialist_exam": { "available": false, "score": 0.0, "mae_points": null, "evidence": 0.0, "exam": null }, "final_quality": 0.55, "final_evidence": 0.0, "residual_mae_points": 6.0 }, "trust_memory": { "available": false, "score": 0.55, "windows": 0 }, "weight": 0.20638761101024167, "cap": 0.26, "weight_pre_benchmark": 0.20638761101024167, "benchmark_log_adjustment": 0.0 }, "histgeo": { "structural_strength": 0.680689563125467, "completion_multiplier": 0.9740507111892837, "validation_log_adjustment": -0.5927124524518204, "uncertainty_penalty": 0.051176822994837855, "unvalidated_penalty": 0.0, "horizon_validation": { "short_path_quality": 0.6781502087045048, "short_path_evidence": 0.6090081831189499, "maturation_quality": 0.2615765604883897, "maturation_evidence": 1.0, "specialist_exam": { "available": true, "score": 0.4821328465755259, "mae_points": 4.012445731824946, "evidence": 1.0, "exam": "held-out historical coalition geography" }, "final_quality": 0.32774344631453056, "final_evidence": 1.0, "residual_mae_points": 5.023536459896757 }, "trust_memory": { "available": true, "score": 0.33148227535723174, "windows": 4 }, "weight": 0.08614748568391185, "cap": 0.24249579556172088, "weight_pre_benchmark": 0.08614748568391184, "benchmark_log_adjustment": 0.0 }, "latent": { "structural_strength": 1.2417168472295956, "completion_multiplier": 0.9712388601832956, "validation_log_adjustment": -0.9149625020637928, "uncertainty_penalty": 0.07597029924862557, "unvalidated_penalty": 0.0, "horizon_validation": { "short_path_quality": 0.6811748538733077, "short_path_evidence": 0.6090081831189499, "maturation_quality": 0.25924045130541196, "maturation_evidence": 1.0, "specialist_exam": { "available": true, "score": 0.3705514209458427, "mae_points": 4.9638152794908645, "evidence": 1.0, "exam": "held-out latent coalition factors" }, "final_quality": 0.2926337421975412, "final_evidence": 1.0, "residual_mae_points": 5.5194059849725114 }, "trust_memory": { "available": true, "score": 0.3281039036005744, "windows": 4 }, "weight": 0.11460896814420396, "cap": 0.2527090325013272, "weight_pre_benchmark": 0.11460896814420397, "benchmark_log_adjustment": 0.0 }, "batchbias": { "structural_strength": 0.5208215817978711, "completion_multiplier": 1.0581876975858213, "validation_log_adjustment": -0.5577821213084185, "uncertainty_penalty": 0.20755440006452847, "unvalidated_penalty": 0.0, "horizon_validation": { "short_path_quality": 0.49451026475286897, "short_path_evidence": 0.35144885730913816, "maturation_quality": 0.37398107276058357, "maturation_evidence": 0.501359732061591, "specialist_exam": { "available": true, "score": 0.18341567350639373, "mae_points": 9.328001441192093, "evidence": 0.37665726543829686, "exam": "prior-batch residual validation" }, "final_quality": 0.3891476654023228, "final_evidence": 0.6891762118206919, "residual_mae_points": 8.151088001290569 }, "trust_memory": { "available": true, "score": 0.38219688394581364, "windows": 4 }, "weight": 0.060824742559304285, "cap": 0.13546403432272314, "weight_pre_benchmark": 0.060824742559304285, "benchmark_log_adjustment": 0.0 } }, "horizon_validation": { "v0": { "short_path_quality": 0.5960141637281827, "short_path_evidence": 0.6090081831189499, "maturation_quality": 0.21548795659162212, "maturation_evidence": 1.0, "specialist_exam": { "available": false, "score": 0.0, "mae_points": null, "evidence": 0.0, "exam": null }, "final_quality": 0.21548795659162212, "final_evidence": 1.0, "residual_mae_points": 6.906826155985889 }, "v1": { "short_path_quality": 0.589254528735769, "short_path_evidence": 0.5898586588970036, "maturation_quality": 0.3374278868570438, "maturation_evidence": 0.7700863821896933, "specialist_exam": { "available": false, "score": 0.0, "mae_points": null, "evidence": 0.0, "exam": null }, "final_quality": 0.3374278868570438, "final_evidence": 0.7700863821896933, "residual_mae_points": 5.82642525665127 }, "v3": { "short_path_quality": 0.6700150915938691, "short_path_evidence": 0.6090081831189499, "maturation_quality": 0.2492213710187745, "maturation_evidence": 1.0, "specialist_exam": { "available": false, "score": 0.0, "mae_points": null, "evidence": 0.0, "exam": null }, "final_quality": 0.2492213710187745, "final_evidence": 1.0, "residual_mae_points": 6.252361817596126 }, "market": { "short_path_quality": 0.55, "short_path_evidence": 0.0, "maturation_quality": 0.55, "maturation_evidence": 0.0, "specialist_exam": { "available": false, "score": 0.0, "mae_points": null, "evidence": 0.0, "exam": null }, "final_quality": 0.55, "final_evidence": 0.0, "residual_mae_points": 6.0 }, "histgeo": { "short_path_quality": 0.6781502087045048, "short_path_evidence": 0.6090081831189499, "maturation_quality": 0.2615765604883897, "maturation_evidence": 1.0, "specialist_exam": { "available": true, "score": 0.4821328465755259, "mae_points": 4.012445731824946, "evidence": 1.0, "exam": "held-out historical coalition geography" }, "final_quality": 0.32774344631453056, "final_evidence": 1.0, "residual_mae_points": 5.023536459896757 }, "latent": { "short_path_quality": 0.6811748538733077, "short_path_evidence": 0.6090081831189499, "maturation_quality": 0.25924045130541196, "maturation_evidence": 1.0, "specialist_exam": { "available": true, "score": 0.3705514209458427, "mae_points": 4.9638152794908645, "evidence": 1.0, "exam": "held-out latent coalition factors" }, "final_quality": 0.2926337421975412, "final_evidence": 1.0, "residual_mae_points": 5.5194059849725114 }, "batchbias": { "short_path_quality": 0.49451026475286897, "short_path_evidence": 0.35144885730913816, "maturation_quality": 0.37398107276058357, "maturation_evidence": 0.501359732061591, "specialist_exam": { "available": true, "score": 0.18341567350639373, "mae_points": 9.328001441192093, "evidence": 0.37665726543829686, "exam": "prior-batch residual validation" }, "final_quality": 0.3891476654023228, "final_evidence": 0.6891762118206919, "residual_mae_points": 8.151088001290569 } }, "caps": { "v0": 0.45, "v1": 0.42, "v2r": 0.34, "v3": 0.44, "market": 0.26, "histgeo": 0.24249579556172088, "latent": 0.2527090325013272, "batchbias": 0.13546403432272314, "runoff_transfer": 0.58, "precinct": 0.38 }, "temperature": 0.88, "method_note": "V6 treats models as experts. Structural applicability, genuine completion validation, specialist held-out exams, uncertainty, and dynamic caps feed a softmax gate. A sticky multi-window trust memory adds hysteresis so one dump cannot violently rewrite expert weights. Path accuracy is kept separate." }, "county_benchmarks": { "available": true, "projected_leader": "Abdul El-Sayed", "projected_runner_up": "Haley Stevens", "projected_statewide_margin_points": 1.88063211058202, "projected_statewide_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 49.05357763768492, "Haley Stevens": 47.1729455271029, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.7734768352121777 }, "expected_final_votes": 2455324.1381099336, "estimated_remaining_votes": 1886888.138109931, "leader_weighted_expected_excess_points": 1.223591722994783, "leader_recent_weighted_excess_points": -2.071322333959439, "leader_expected_status_counts": { "well_above": 0, "above": 167, "on_benchmark": 0, "below": 0, "well_below": 0 }, "leader_recent_status_counts": { "well_above": 3, "above": 0, "on_benchmark": 1, "below": 1, "well_below": 8 }, "top_leverage_counties": [ { "cid": "fips:26163", "county": "Wayne", "reporting": 22.97, "estimated_remaining_votes": 243867.3379252507, "expected_remaining_share_points": 41.64555593769401, "required_remaining_share_points": 40.43645064061567, "required_final_county_share_points": 39.0772880822506, "expected_excess_points": 1.2091052970783451, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "recent_excess_points": null, "status": "ABOVE", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "leverage": 0.19864370177452464, "criticality_score": 0.16428982839999362, "benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 25.825397063609934, "central": 40.43645064061567, "p90": 55.212785481365344 }, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 30.49878877943287, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 30.49878877943287, "feasible": true, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 40.148439545193234, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 40.148439545193234, "feasible": true, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 45.19248298831058, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 45.19248298831058, "feasible": true, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false } } }, { "cid": "26163", "county": "26163", "reporting": 0.0, "estimated_remaining_votes": 243867.33792525067, "expected_remaining_share_points": 45.51633874471458, "required_remaining_share_points": 44.28457031828452, "required_final_county_share_points": 44.28457031828452, "expected_excess_points": 1.2317684264300581, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "recent_excess_points": null, "status": "ABOVE", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "leverage": 0.19864370177452462, "criticality_score": 0.16126708357855765, "benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 29.673516741278785, "central": 44.28457031828452, "p90": 59.0609051590342 }, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 34.36957158645344, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 34.36957158645344, "feasible": true, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 44.0192223522138, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 44.0192223522138, "feasible": true, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 49.06326579533115, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 49.06326579533115, "feasible": true, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false } } }, { "cid": "fips:26099", "county": "Macomb", "reporting": 27.41, "estimated_remaining_votes": 87051.54937106234, "expected_remaining_share_points": 53.23162281223133, "required_remaining_share_points": 51.999169873725585, "required_final_county_share_points": 53.20272008465212, "expected_excess_points": 1.2324529385057446, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "recent_excess_points": null, "status": "ABOVE", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "leverage": 0.07090839699728863, "criticality_score": 0.057534364827966304, "benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 11.067575136457592, "central": 51.999169873725585, "p90": 93.39378568401717 }, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 22.004924918886502, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 22.004924918886502, "feasible": true, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 49.03758155918977, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 49.03758155918977, "feasible": true, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 63.16803019266629, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 63.16803019266629, "feasible": true, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false } } }, { "cid": "26099", "county": "26099", "reporting": 0.0, "estimated_remaining_votes": 87051.54937106233, "expected_remaining_share_points": 51.0656987941285, "required_remaining_share_points": 49.82773188621717, "required_final_county_share_points": 49.82773188621717, "expected_excess_points": 1.2379669079113285, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "recent_excess_points": null, "status": "ABOVE", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "leverage": 0.07090839699728861, "criticality_score": 0.05727810375555495, "benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 8.896137148949173, "central": 49.82773188621717, "p90": 91.22234769650878 }, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 19.839000900783667, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 19.839000900783667, "feasible": true, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 46.87165754108693, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 46.87165754108693, "feasible": true, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 61.002106174563465, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 61.002106174563465, "feasible": true, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false } } }, { "cid": "fips:26049", "county": "Genesee", "reporting": 3.4300000000000006, "estimated_remaining_votes": 64183.379378517384, "expected_remaining_share_points": 49.964640810874236, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.72970216224296, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.81797759487675, "expected_excess_points": 1.2349386486312781, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "recent_excess_points": null, "status": "ABOVE", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "leverage": 0.052280982687625634, "criticality_score": 0.042334882583495395, "benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 48.72970216224296, "p90": 100.0 }, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 7.612049537570229, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 7.612049537570229, "feasible": true, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 44.27628671143863, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 44.27628671143863, "feasible": true, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 63.441333157466964, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 63.441333157466964, "feasible": true, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false } } }, { "cid": "26049", "county": "26049", "reporting": 0.0, "estimated_remaining_votes": 64183.37937851738, "expected_remaining_share_points": 48.32016286564123, "required_remaining_share_points": 47.0877023519475, "required_final_county_share_points": 47.0877023519475, "expected_excess_points": 1.2324605136937308, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "recent_excess_points": null, "status": "ABOVE", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "leverage": 0.05228098268762563, "criticality_score": 0.04242000624501757, "benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 47.0877023519475, "p90": 100.0 }, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 5.967571592337215, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 5.967571592337215, "feasible": true, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 42.63180876620562, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 42.63180876620562, "feasible": true, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 61.796855212233964, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 61.796855212233964, "feasible": true, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false } } }, { "cid": "26125", "county": "26125", "reporting": 0.0, "estimated_remaining_votes": 58294.288272976875, "expected_remaining_share_points": 48.44529292257174, "required_remaining_share_points": 47.20377120432641, "required_final_county_share_points": 47.20377120432641, "expected_excess_points": 1.2415217182453304, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "recent_excess_points": null, "status": "ABOVE", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "leverage": 0.04748398581529103, "criticality_score": 0.03824660101991705, "benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 47.20377120432641, "p90": 100.0 }, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1.8140960439252893, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 1.8140960439252893, "feasible": true, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 42.18228157069173, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 42.18228157069173, "feasible": true, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 63.28344745322575, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 63.28344745322575, "feasible": true, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false } } }, { "cid": "fips:26125", "county": "Oakland", "reporting": 76.49, "estimated_remaining_votes": 58294.28827297687, "expected_remaining_share_points": 48.05095048633834, "required_remaining_share_points": 46.806775165819126, "required_final_county_share_points": 47.34469559576671, "expected_excess_points": 1.2441753205192114, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "recent_excess_points": null, "status": "ABOVE", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "leverage": 0.04748398581529102, "criticality_score": 0.038165027896129064, "benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 46.806775165819126, "p90": 100.0 }, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1.4197536076918809, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 1.4197536076918809, "feasible": true, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 41.78793913445833, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 41.78793913445833, "feasible": true, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 62.889105016992346, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 62.889105016992346, "feasible": true, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false } } }, { "cid": "26081", "county": "26081", "reporting": 0.0, "estimated_remaining_votes": 46918.32971673878, "expected_remaining_share_points": 55.5704454339816, "required_remaining_share_points": 54.35989329691363, "required_final_county_share_points": 54.35989329691363, "expected_excess_points": 1.210552137067964, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "recent_excess_points": null, "status": "ABOVE", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "leverage": 0.038217625924417215, "criticality_score": 0.03157040886895032, "benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 54.35989329691363, "p90": 100.0 }, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -2.367090914162368, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 47.788885617005285, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 47.788885617005285, "feasible": true, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 74.00630329318261, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 74.00630329318261, "feasible": true, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false } } }, { "cid": "fips:26081", "county": "Kent", "reporting": 53.71, "estimated_remaining_votes": 46918.32971673878, "expected_remaining_share_points": 58.955819082444094, "required_remaining_share_points": 57.77711302226799, "required_final_county_share_points": 61.143310409537044, "expected_excess_points": 1.1787060601761041, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "recent_excess_points": null, "status": "ABOVE", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "leverage": 0.038217625924417215, "criticality_score": 0.03242337272679104, "benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 57.77711302226799, "p90": 100.0 }, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1.0182827343001293, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 1.0182827343001293, "feasible": true, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 51.17425926546778, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 51.17425926546778, "feasible": true, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 77.3916769416451, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 77.3916769416451, "feasible": true, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false } } }, { "cid": "fips:26077", "county": "Kalamazoo", "reporting": 3.45, "estimated_remaining_votes": 42085.15108479823, "expected_remaining_share_points": 48.734671319991016, "required_remaining_share_points": 47.504644632416884, "required_final_county_share_points": 47.49328823422302, "expected_excess_points": 1.2300266875741315, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "recent_excess_points": null, "status": "ABOVE", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "leverage": 0.03428072931926182, "criticality_score": 0.027869906942320537, "benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 47.504644632416884, "p90": 100.0 }, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -15.856576739937118, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 40.05945500752544, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 40.05945500752544, "feasible": true, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 69.28775561107643, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 69.28775561107643, "feasible": true, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false } } }, { "cid": "26077", "county": "26077", "reporting": 0.0, "estimated_remaining_votes": 42085.15108479823, "expected_remaining_share_points": 50.90024768957419, "required_remaining_share_points": 49.669690025912665, "required_final_county_share_points": 49.66969002591267, "expected_excess_points": 1.2305576636615285, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "recent_excess_points": null, "status": "ABOVE", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "leverage": 0.03428072931926182, "criticality_score": 0.027857881293639985, "benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 49.669690025912665, "p90": 100.0 }, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -13.69100037035394, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 42.22503137710862, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 42.22503137710862, "feasible": true, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 71.45333198065961, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 71.45333198065961, "feasible": true, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false } } } ], "most_pivotal_counties": [ { "cid": "fips:26163", "county": "Wayne", "reporting": 22.97, "estimated_remaining_votes": 243867.3379252507, "expected_remaining_share_points": 41.64555593769401, "required_remaining_share_points": 40.43645064061567, "required_final_county_share_points": 39.0772880822506, "expected_excess_points": 1.2091052970783451, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "recent_excess_points": null, "status": "ABOVE", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "leverage": 0.19864370177452464, "criticality_score": 0.16428982839999362, "benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 25.825397063609934, "central": 40.43645064061567, "p90": 55.212785481365344 }, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 30.49878877943287, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 30.49878877943287, "feasible": true, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 40.148439545193234, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 40.148439545193234, "feasible": true, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 45.19248298831058, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 45.19248298831058, "feasible": true, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false } } }, { "cid": "26163", "county": "26163", "reporting": 0.0, "estimated_remaining_votes": 243867.33792525067, "expected_remaining_share_points": 45.51633874471458, "required_remaining_share_points": 44.28457031828452, "required_final_county_share_points": 44.28457031828452, "expected_excess_points": 1.2317684264300581, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "recent_excess_points": null, "status": "ABOVE", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "leverage": 0.19864370177452462, "criticality_score": 0.16126708357855765, "benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 29.673516741278785, "central": 44.28457031828452, "p90": 59.0609051590342 }, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 34.36957158645344, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 34.36957158645344, "feasible": true, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 44.0192223522138, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 44.0192223522138, "feasible": true, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 49.06326579533115, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 49.06326579533115, "feasible": true, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false } } }, { "cid": "fips:26099", "county": "Macomb", "reporting": 27.41, "estimated_remaining_votes": 87051.54937106234, "expected_remaining_share_points": 53.23162281223133, "required_remaining_share_points": 51.999169873725585, "required_final_county_share_points": 53.20272008465212, "expected_excess_points": 1.2324529385057446, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "recent_excess_points": null, "status": "ABOVE", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "leverage": 0.07090839699728863, "criticality_score": 0.057534364827966304, "benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 11.067575136457592, "central": 51.999169873725585, "p90": 93.39378568401717 }, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 22.004924918886502, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 22.004924918886502, "feasible": true, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 49.03758155918977, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 49.03758155918977, "feasible": true, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 63.16803019266629, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 63.16803019266629, "feasible": true, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false } } }, { "cid": "26099", "county": "26099", "reporting": 0.0, "estimated_remaining_votes": 87051.54937106233, "expected_remaining_share_points": 51.0656987941285, "required_remaining_share_points": 49.82773188621717, "required_final_county_share_points": 49.82773188621717, "expected_excess_points": 1.2379669079113285, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "recent_excess_points": null, "status": "ABOVE", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "leverage": 0.07090839699728861, "criticality_score": 0.05727810375555495, "benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 8.896137148949173, "central": 49.82773188621717, "p90": 91.22234769650878 }, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 19.839000900783667, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 19.839000900783667, "feasible": true, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 46.87165754108693, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 46.87165754108693, "feasible": true, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 61.002106174563465, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 61.002106174563465, "feasible": true, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false } } }, { "cid": "26049", "county": "26049", "reporting": 0.0, "estimated_remaining_votes": 64183.37937851738, "expected_remaining_share_points": 48.32016286564123, "required_remaining_share_points": 47.0877023519475, "required_final_county_share_points": 47.0877023519475, "expected_excess_points": 1.2324605136937308, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "recent_excess_points": null, "status": "ABOVE", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "leverage": 0.05228098268762563, "criticality_score": 0.04242000624501757, "benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 47.0877023519475, "p90": 100.0 }, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 5.967571592337215, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 5.967571592337215, "feasible": true, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 42.63180876620562, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 42.63180876620562, "feasible": true, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 61.796855212233964, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 61.796855212233964, "feasible": true, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false } } }, { "cid": "fips:26049", "county": "Genesee", "reporting": 3.4300000000000006, "estimated_remaining_votes": 64183.379378517384, "expected_remaining_share_points": 49.964640810874236, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.72970216224296, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.81797759487675, "expected_excess_points": 1.2349386486312781, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "recent_excess_points": null, "status": "ABOVE", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "leverage": 0.052280982687625634, "criticality_score": 0.042334882583495395, "benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 48.72970216224296, "p90": 100.0 }, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 7.612049537570229, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 7.612049537570229, "feasible": true, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 44.27628671143863, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 44.27628671143863, "feasible": true, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 63.441333157466964, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 63.441333157466964, "feasible": true, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false } } }, { "cid": "26125", "county": "26125", "reporting": 0.0, "estimated_remaining_votes": 58294.288272976875, "expected_remaining_share_points": 48.44529292257174, "required_remaining_share_points": 47.20377120432641, "required_final_county_share_points": 47.20377120432641, "expected_excess_points": 1.2415217182453304, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "recent_excess_points": null, "status": "ABOVE", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "leverage": 0.04748398581529103, "criticality_score": 0.03824660101991705, "benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 47.20377120432641, "p90": 100.0 }, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1.8140960439252893, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 1.8140960439252893, "feasible": true, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 42.18228157069173, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 42.18228157069173, "feasible": true, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 63.28344745322575, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 63.28344745322575, "feasible": true, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false } } }, { "cid": "fips:26125", "county": "Oakland", "reporting": 76.49, "estimated_remaining_votes": 58294.28827297687, "expected_remaining_share_points": 48.05095048633834, "required_remaining_share_points": 46.806775165819126, "required_final_county_share_points": 47.34469559576671, "expected_excess_points": 1.2441753205192114, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "recent_excess_points": null, "status": "ABOVE", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "leverage": 0.04748398581529102, "criticality_score": 0.038165027896129064, "benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 46.806775165819126, "p90": 100.0 }, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1.4197536076918809, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 1.4197536076918809, "feasible": true, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 41.78793913445833, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 41.78793913445833, "feasible": true, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 62.889105016992346, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 62.889105016992346, "feasible": true, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false } } } ], "tipping_county": { "cid": "fips:26163", "county": "Wayne", "expected_margin_contribution_points": -1.291829165914926, "distance_from_statewide_margin_points": 0.5888029446670942, "estimated_remaining_votes": 243867.3379252507 }, "counties": [ { "cid": "fips:26163", "county": "Wayne", "fips": "26163", "reporting": 22.97, "current_votes": 69886, "current_candidate_votes": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 23995, "Haley Stevens": 43382, "Mallory McMorrow": 2509 }, "current_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 34.33448759408179, "Haley Stevens": 62.07537990441576, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.5901325015024463 }, "estimated_remaining_votes": 243867.3379252507, "estimated_final_votes": 313753.3379252507, "turnout_disagreement_votes": 0.0, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 41.64555593769401, "Haley Stevens": 54.652051027895745, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.702393034410266 }, "remaining_sources": [ { "model": "v3", "remaining_votes": 243867.3379252507, "weight": 0.1342208488636769 }, { "model": "histgeo", "remaining_votes": 243867.3379252507, "weight": 0.05994207394479305 }, { "model": "latent", "remaining_votes": 243867.3379252507, "weight": 0.07672787409296966 }, { "model": "batchbias", "remaining_votes": 243867.3379252507, "weight": 0.045123489075924846 } ], "share_sources": [ { "model": "v0", "weight": 0.03630604611298715, "source": "statewide raw" }, { "model": "v1", "weight": 0.14599140026529184, "source": "county live" }, { "model": "v3", "weight": 0.15004242351696637, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "market", "weight": 0.0786646379365536, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "histgeo", "weight": 0.06573339512824654, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "latent", "weight": 0.08483492578364633, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "batchbias", "weight": 0.04883898267529022, "source": "county remaining" } ], "candidate_benchmarks": { "Abdul El-Sayed": { "opponent": "Haley Stevens", "expected_remaining_share_points": 41.64555593769401, "expected_final_county_share_points": 40.017075024501594, "current_county_share_points": 34.33448759408179, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 40.43645064061567, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 40.43645064061567, "required_final_county_share_points": 39.0772880822506, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 25.825397063609934, "central": 40.43645064061567, "p90": 55.212785481365344 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 32.178192543929406, "feasible": true, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": false }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 40.43645064061567, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 40.43645064061567, "required_final_county_share_points": 39.0772880822506, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 25.825397063609934, "central": 40.43645064061567, "p90": 55.212785481365344 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 41.07821168709322, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 41.07821168709322, "required_final_county_share_points": 39.576102083795625, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.024044322225107804, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999973, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 41.72261645522827, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 41.72261645522827, "required_final_county_share_points": 40.07697093953628, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.003259695682198218, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.9999999999999996, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": 1.2091052970783451, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "ABOVE", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.19864370177452464, "criticality_score": 0.16428982839999362, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 30.49878877943287, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 30.49878877943287, "feasible": true, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 40.148439545193234, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 40.148439545193234, "feasible": true, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 45.19248298831058, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 45.19248298831058, "feasible": true, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false } } }, "Haley Stevens": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 54.652051027895745, "expected_final_county_share_points": 56.30553706025175, "current_county_share_points": 62.07537990441576, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 55.86115632497408, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 55.86115632497408, "required_final_county_share_points": 57.24532400250275, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 41.084821484224406, "central": 55.86115632497408, "p90": 70.47220990197982 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 64.11941442166035, "feasible": true, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": false }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 55.86115632497408, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 55.86115632497408, "required_final_county_share_points": 57.24532400250275, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 41.084821484224406, "central": 55.86115632497408, "p90": 70.47220990197982 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 56.50028355998876, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 56.50028355998876, "required_final_county_share_points": 57.742090852631655, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.07865391656842785, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.999999999999999, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 57.136786853384415, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 57.136786853384415, "required_final_county_share_points": 58.23681822276097, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.10597932088248406, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -1.209105297078338, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.19864370177452464, "criticality_score": 0.1642898283999946, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 65.79881818615688, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 65.79881818615688, "feasible": true, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 75.44846895191725, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 75.44846895191725, "feasible": true, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 80.4925123950346, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 80.4925123950346, "feasible": true, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false } } }, "Mallory McMorrow": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 3.702393034410266, "expected_final_county_share_points": 3.677387915246673, "current_county_share_points": 3.5901325015024463, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 30.150192710830886, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 30.150192710830886, "required_final_county_share_points": 24.234155673381593, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 15.373857870081212, "central": 30.150192710830886, "p90": 44.76124628783662 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 231.64871299309203, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 30.150192710830886, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 30.150192710830886, "required_final_county_share_points": 24.234155673381593, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 15.373857870081212, "central": 30.150192710830886, "p90": 44.76124628783662 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 30.688501383508104, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 30.688501383508104, "required_final_county_share_points": 24.652560474605234, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.159018308558073, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999906, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 31.22480773049429, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 31.22480773049429, "required_final_county_share_points": 25.069408951873374, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.213613509684069, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.999999999999993, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -26.44779967642062, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "WELL BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.19864370177452464, "criticality_score": 0.007510783664609509, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 14.849160192671405, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 14.849160192671405, "feasible": true, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 24.498810958431765, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 24.498810958431765, "feasible": true, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 29.54285440154911, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 29.54285440154911, "feasible": true, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false } } } } }, { "cid": "26163", "county": "26163", "fips": null, "reporting": 0.0, "current_votes": 0, "current_candidate_votes": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 0, "Haley Stevens": 0, "Mallory McMorrow": 0 }, "current_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": null, "Haley Stevens": null, "Mallory McMorrow": null }, "estimated_remaining_votes": 243867.33792525067, "estimated_final_votes": 243867.33792525067, "turnout_disagreement_votes": 2.9103830456733704e-11, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 45.51633874471458, "Haley Stevens": 50.90232394506936, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.5813373102160573 }, "remaining_sources": [ { "model": "market", "remaining_votes": 243867.3379252507, "weight": 0.1780093144963334 } ], "share_sources": [ { "model": "v0", "weight": 0.03630604611298715, "source": "statewide raw" }, { "model": "v3", "weight": 0.06301781787712588, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "market", "weight": 0.18729675699179427, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "histgeo", "weight": 0.02760802595386354, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "latent", "weight": 0.03563066882913146, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "batchbias", "weight": 0.020512372723621893, "source": "statewide fallback" } ], "candidate_benchmarks": { "Abdul El-Sayed": { "opponent": "Haley Stevens", "expected_remaining_share_points": 45.51633874471458, "expected_final_county_share_points": 45.51633874471459, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 44.28457031828452, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 44.28457031828452, "required_final_county_share_points": 44.28457031828452, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 29.673516741278785, "central": 44.28457031828452, "p90": 59.0609051590342 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 36.048975350949966, "feasible": true, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": false }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 44.28457031828452, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 44.28457031828452, "required_final_county_share_points": 44.28457031828452, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 29.673516741278785, "central": 44.28457031828452, "p90": 59.0609051590342 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 44.93898245592348, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 44.93898245592348, "required_final_county_share_points": 44.93898245592348, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.024044322225107804, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999973, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 45.59467450126506, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 45.59467450126506, "required_final_county_share_points": 45.594674501265054, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.003259695682198218, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.9999999999999996, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": 1.2317684264300581, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "ABOVE", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.19864370177452462, "criticality_score": 0.16126708357855765, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 34.36957158645344, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 34.36957158645344, "feasible": true, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 44.0192223522138, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 44.0192223522138, "feasible": true, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 49.06326579533115, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 49.06326579533115, "feasible": true, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false } } }, "Haley Stevens": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 50.90232394506936, "expected_final_county_share_points": 50.90232394506936, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 52.13409237149942, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 52.13409237149942, "required_final_county_share_points": 52.13409237149942, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 37.357757530749744, "central": 52.13409237149942, "p90": 66.74514594850515 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 60.36968733883398, "feasible": true, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": false }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 52.13409237149942, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 52.13409237149942, "required_final_county_share_points": 52.13409237149942, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 37.357757530749744, "central": 52.13409237149942, "p90": 66.74514594850515 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 52.78722187419612, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 52.78722187419612, "required_final_county_share_points": 52.78722187419612, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.07865391656842785, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.999999999999999, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 53.43906603929837, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 53.43906603929837, "required_final_county_share_points": 53.43906603929837, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.10597932088248406, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -1.2317684264300581, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.19864370177452462, "criticality_score": 0.16126708357855765, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 62.049091103330504, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 62.049091103330504, "feasible": true, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 71.69874186909087, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 71.69874186909087, "feasible": true, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 76.74278531220821, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 76.74278531220821, "feasible": true, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false } } }, "Mallory McMorrow": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 3.5813373102160573, "expected_final_county_share_points": 3.5813373102160573, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 31.28154163489656, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 31.28154163489656, "required_final_county_share_points": 31.28154163489656, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 16.50520679414688, "central": 31.28154163489656, "p90": 45.8925952119023 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 231.5276572688978, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 31.28154163489656, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 31.28154163489656, "required_final_county_share_points": 31.28154163489656, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 16.50520679414688, "central": 31.28154163489656, "p90": 45.8925952119023 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 31.8871645758567, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 31.8871645758567, "required_final_county_share_points": 31.8871645758567, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.159018308558073, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999906, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 32.492319773721604, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 32.492319773721604, "required_final_county_share_points": 32.492319773721604, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.213613509684069, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.999999999999993, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -27.700204324680502, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "WELL BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.19864370177452462, "criticality_score": 0.007171199874418825, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 14.728104468477198, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 14.728104468477198, "feasible": true, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 24.377755234237558, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 24.377755234237558, "feasible": true, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 29.421798677354907, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 29.421798677354907, "feasible": true, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false } } } } }, { "cid": "fips:26099", "county": "Macomb", "fips": "26099", "reporting": 27.41, "current_votes": 31576, "current_candidate_votes": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 17847, "Haley Stevens": 12862, "Mallory McMorrow": 867 }, "current_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 56.52077527235876, "Haley Stevens": 40.73346845705599, "Mallory McMorrow": 2.7457562705852547 }, "estimated_remaining_votes": 87051.54937106234, "estimated_final_votes": 118627.54937106234, "turnout_disagreement_votes": 1.4551915228366852e-11, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 53.23162281223133, "Haley Stevens": 43.52786560085431, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.2405115869143555 }, "remaining_sources": [ { "model": "v3", "remaining_votes": 87051.54937106233, "weight": 0.1342208488636769 }, { "model": "histgeo", "remaining_votes": 87051.54937106233, "weight": 0.05994207394479305 }, { "model": "latent", "remaining_votes": 87051.54937106233, "weight": 0.07672787409296966 }, { "model": "batchbias", "remaining_votes": 87051.54937106233, "weight": 0.045123489075924846 } ], "share_sources": [ { "model": "v0", "weight": 0.03630604611298715, "source": "statewide raw" }, { "model": "v1", "weight": 0.14599140026529184, "source": "county live" }, { "model": "v3", "weight": 0.15004242351696637, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "market", "weight": 0.0786646379365536, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "histgeo", "weight": 0.06573339512824654, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "latent", "weight": 0.08483492578364633, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "batchbias", "weight": 0.04883898267529022, "source": "county remaining" } ], "candidate_benchmarks": { "Abdul El-Sayed": { "opponent": "Haley Stevens", "expected_remaining_share_points": 53.23162281223133, "expected_final_county_share_points": 54.107121620321166, "current_county_share_points": 56.52077527235876, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 51.999169873725585, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 51.999169873725585, "required_final_county_share_points": 53.20272008465212, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 11.067575136457592, "central": 51.999169873725585, "p90": 93.39378568401717 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 26.70962837687643, "feasible": true, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": false }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 51.999169873725585, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 51.999169873725585, "required_final_county_share_points": 53.20272008465212, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 11.067575136457592, "central": 51.999169873725585, "p90": 93.39378568401717 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 52.65517626974121, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 52.65517626974121, "required_final_county_share_points": 53.68411225260344, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.024044322225107804, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999973, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 53.30966855287589, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 53.30966855287589, "required_final_county_share_points": 54.164393330652715, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.003259695682198218, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.9999999999999996, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": 1.2324529385057446, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "ABOVE", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.07090839699728863, "criticality_score": 0.057534364827966304, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 22.004924918886502, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 22.004924918886502, "feasible": true, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 49.03758155918977, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 49.03758155918977, "feasible": true, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 63.16803019266629, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 63.16803019266629, "feasible": true, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false } } }, "Haley Stevens": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 43.52786560085431, "expected_final_county_share_points": 42.78405959052718, "current_county_share_points": 40.73346845705599, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 44.760318539360064, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 44.760318539360064, "required_final_county_share_points": 43.688461126196216, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 3.365702729068474, "central": 44.760318539360064, "p90": 85.69191327662806 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 70.04986003620921, "feasible": true, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": false }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 44.760318539360064, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 44.760318539360064, "required_final_county_share_points": 43.688461126196216, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 3.365702729068474, "central": 44.760318539360064, "p90": 85.69191327662806 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 45.41783777995146, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 45.41783777995146, "required_final_county_share_points": 44.17096345333886, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.07865391656842785, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.999999999999999, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 46.07686854924514, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 46.07686854924514, "required_final_county_share_points": 44.654574974055414, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.10597932088248406, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -1.2324529385057517, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.07090839699728863, "criticality_score": 0.05753436482796597, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 74.75456349419915, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 74.75456349419915, "feasible": true, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 101.7872201345024, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 115.91766876797894, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Mallory McMorrow": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 3.2405115869143555, "expected_final_county_share_points": 3.108818789151658, "current_county_share_points": 2.7457562705852547, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 32.52744151348054, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 32.52744151348054, "required_final_county_share_points": 24.60022310413644, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 32.52744151348054, "p90": 73.45903625074854 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 641.8122847466453, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 32.52744151348054, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 32.52744151348054, "required_final_county_share_points": 24.60022310413644, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 32.52744151348054, "p90": 73.45903625074854 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 33.265695057931325, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 33.265695057931325, "required_final_county_share_points": 25.141970069439562, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.159018308558073, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999906, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 34.00822064741608, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 34.00822064741608, "required_final_county_share_points": 25.686851956952257, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.213613509684069, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.999999999999993, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -29.286929926566184, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "WELL BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.07090839699728863, "criticality_score": 0.0024211618348213273, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 34.467209480259186, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 34.467209480259186, "feasible": true, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 61.499866120562444, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 61.499866120562444, "feasible": true, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 75.63031475403898, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 75.63031475403898, "feasible": true, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false } } } } }, { "cid": "26099", "county": "26099", "fips": null, "reporting": 0.0, "current_votes": 0, "current_candidate_votes": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 0, "Haley Stevens": 0, "Mallory McMorrow": 0 }, "current_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": null, "Haley Stevens": null, "Mallory McMorrow": null }, "estimated_remaining_votes": 87051.54937106233, "estimated_final_votes": 87051.54937106233, "turnout_disagreement_votes": 0.0, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 51.0656987941285, "Haley Stevens": 45.569276045116666, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.3650251607548363 }, "remaining_sources": [ { "model": "market", "remaining_votes": 87051.54937106233, "weight": 0.1780093144963334 } ], "share_sources": [ { "model": "v0", "weight": 0.03630604611298715, "source": "statewide raw" }, { "model": "v3", "weight": 0.06301781787712588, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "market", "weight": 0.18729675699179427, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "histgeo", "weight": 0.02760802595386354, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "latent", "weight": 0.03563066882913146, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "batchbias", "weight": 0.020512372723621893, "source": "statewide fallback" } ], "candidate_benchmarks": { "Abdul El-Sayed": { "opponent": "Haley Stevens", "expected_remaining_share_points": 51.0656987941285, "expected_final_county_share_points": 51.065698794128494, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 49.82773188621717, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 49.82773188621717, "required_final_county_share_points": 49.82773188621717, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 8.896137148949173, "central": 49.82773188621717, "p90": 91.22234769650878 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 24.543704358773567, "feasible": true, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": false }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 49.82773188621717, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 49.82773188621717, "required_final_county_share_points": 49.82773188621717, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 8.896137148949173, "central": 49.82773188621717, "p90": 91.22234769650878 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 50.48632913946651, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 50.48632913946651, "required_final_county_share_points": 50.48632913946651, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.024044322225107804, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999973, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 51.1441868342374, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 51.1441868342374, "required_final_county_share_points": 51.1441868342374, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.003259695682198218, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.9999999999999996, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": 1.2379669079113285, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "ABOVE", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.07090839699728861, "criticality_score": 0.05727810375555495, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 19.839000900783667, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 19.839000900783667, "feasible": true, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 46.87165754108693, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 46.87165754108693, "feasible": true, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 61.002106174563465, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 61.002106174563465, "feasible": true, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false } } }, "Haley Stevens": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 45.569276045116666, "expected_final_county_share_points": 45.56927604511666, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 46.80724295302798, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 46.80724295302798, "required_final_county_share_points": 46.80724295302798, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 5.412627142736376, "central": 46.80724295302798, "p90": 87.73883769029598 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 72.09127048047161, "feasible": true, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": false }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 46.80724295302798, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 46.80724295302798, "required_final_county_share_points": 46.80724295302798, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 5.412627142736376, "central": 46.80724295302798, "p90": 87.73883769029598 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 47.466574469917525, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 47.466574469917525, "required_final_county_share_points": 47.466574469917525, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.07865391656842785, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.999999999999999, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.12663491756927, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.12663491756927, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.12663491756927, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.10597932088248406, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -1.2379669079113143, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.07090839699728861, "criticality_score": 0.05727810375555561, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 76.7959739384615, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 76.7959739384615, "feasible": true, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 103.82863057876476, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 117.9590792122413, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Mallory McMorrow": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 3.3650251607548363, "expected_final_county_share_points": 3.3650251607548363, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 32.39817483241233, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 32.39817483241233, "required_final_county_share_points": 32.39817483241233, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 32.39817483241233, "p90": 73.32976956968034 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 641.9367983204861, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 32.39817483241233, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 32.39817483241233, "required_final_county_share_points": 32.39817483241233, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 32.39817483241233, "p90": 73.32976956968034 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 33.099428262388464, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 33.099428262388464, "required_final_county_share_points": 33.099428262388464, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.159018308558073, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999906, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 33.803286602273005, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 33.803286602273005, "required_final_county_share_points": 33.803286602273005, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.213613509684069, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.999999999999993, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -29.033149671657494, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "WELL BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.07090839699728861, "criticality_score": 0.002442325334977701, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 34.591723054099674, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 34.591723054099674, "feasible": true, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 61.62437969440293, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 61.62437969440293, "feasible": true, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 75.75482832787948, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 75.75482832787948, "feasible": true, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false } } } } }, { "cid": "fips:26049", "county": "Genesee", "fips": "26049", "reporting": 3.4300000000000006, "current_votes": 2213, "current_candidate_votes": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 1137, "Haley Stevens": 999, "Mallory McMorrow": 77 }, "current_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 51.37821961138725, "Haley Stevens": 45.142340713962945, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.4794396746497966 }, "estimated_remaining_votes": 64183.379378517384, "estimated_final_votes": 66396.37937851739, "turnout_disagreement_votes": 7.275957614183426e-12, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 49.964640810874236, "Haley Stevens": 46.307663096836585, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.7276960922891837 }, "remaining_sources": [ { "model": "v3", "remaining_votes": 64183.37937851738, "weight": 0.1342208488636769 }, { "model": "histgeo", "remaining_votes": 64183.37937851738, "weight": 0.05994207394479305 }, { "model": "latent", "remaining_votes": 64183.37937851738, "weight": 0.07672787409296966 }, { "model": "batchbias", "remaining_votes": 64183.37937851738, "weight": 0.045123489075924846 } ], "share_sources": [ { "model": "v0", "weight": 0.03630604611298715, "source": "statewide raw" }, { "model": "v1", "weight": 0.14599140026529184, "source": "county live" }, { "model": "v3", "weight": 0.15004242351696637, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "market", "weight": 0.0786646379365536, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "histgeo", "weight": 0.06573339512824654, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "latent", "weight": 0.08483492578364633, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "batchbias", "weight": 0.04883898267529022, "source": "county remaining" } ], "candidate_benchmarks": { "Abdul El-Sayed": { "opponent": "Haley Stevens", "expected_remaining_share_points": 49.964640810874236, "expected_final_county_share_points": 50.01175557699274, "current_county_share_points": 51.37821961138725, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.72970216224296, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.72970216224296, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.81797759487675, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 48.72970216224296, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 13.99301185702228, "feasible": true, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": false }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.72970216224296, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.72970216224296, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.81797759487675, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 48.72970216224296, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 49.38653910357338, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 49.38653910357338, "required_final_county_share_points": 49.45292207513068, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.024044322225107804, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999973, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 50.04297729133514, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 50.04297729133514, "required_final_county_share_points": 50.0874810923245, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.003259695682198218, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.9999999999999996, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": 1.2349386486312781, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "ABOVE", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.052280982687625634, "criticality_score": 0.042334882583495395, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 7.612049537570229, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 7.612049537570229, "feasible": true, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 44.27628671143863, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 44.27628671143863, "feasible": true, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 63.441333157466964, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 63.441333157466964, "feasible": true, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false } } }, "Haley Stevens": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 46.307663096836585, "expected_final_county_share_points": 46.26882274955503, "current_county_share_points": 45.142340713962945, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 47.54260174546786, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 47.54260174546786, "required_final_county_share_points": 47.46260073167103, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 47.54260174546786, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 82.27929205068854, "feasible": true, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": false }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 47.54260174546786, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 47.54260174546786, "required_final_county_share_points": 47.46260073167103, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 47.54260174546786, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.19983128370718, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.19983128370718, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.097924723527576, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.07865391656842785, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.999999999999999, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.857447235441455, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.857447235441455, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.73362224966682, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.10597932088248406, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -1.2349386486312781, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.052280982687625634, "criticality_score": 0.042334882583495395, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 88.66025437014059, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 88.66025437014059, "feasible": true, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 125.32449154400899, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 144.48953799003732, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Mallory McMorrow": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 3.7276960922891837, "expected_final_county_share_points": 3.719421673452217, "current_county_share_points": 3.4794396746497966, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 33.54396650996579, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 33.54396650996579, "required_final_county_share_points": 32.54191190233035, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 33.54396650996579, "p90": 89.05925371686244 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 869.8189299357201, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 33.54396650996579, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 33.54396650996579, "required_final_county_share_points": 32.54191190233035, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 33.54396650996579, "p90": 89.05925371686244 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 34.21599970086275, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 34.21599970086275, "required_final_county_share_points": 33.19154613916723, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.159018308558073, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999906, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 34.88840211774535, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 34.88840211774535, "required_final_county_share_points": 33.8415372956394, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.213613509684069, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.999999999999993, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -29.81627041767661, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "WELL BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.052280982687625634, "criticality_score": 0.001753438037529697, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 46.08028736559319, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 46.08028736559319, "feasible": true, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 82.74452453946158, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 82.74452453946158, "feasible": true, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 101.90957098548992, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } } } }, { "cid": "26049", "county": "26049", "fips": null, "reporting": 0.0, "current_votes": 0, "current_candidate_votes": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 0, "Haley Stevens": 0, "Mallory McMorrow": 0 }, "current_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": null, "Haley Stevens": null, "Mallory McMorrow": null }, "estimated_remaining_votes": 64183.37937851738, "estimated_final_votes": 64183.37937851738, "turnout_disagreement_votes": 0.0, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 48.32016286564123, "Haley Stevens": 47.702062163697065, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.977774970661694 }, "remaining_sources": [ { "model": "market", "remaining_votes": 64183.37937851738, "weight": 0.1780093144963334 } ], "share_sources": [ { "model": "v0", "weight": 0.03630604611298715, "source": "statewide raw" }, { "model": "v3", "weight": 0.06301781787712588, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "market", "weight": 0.18729675699179427, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "histgeo", "weight": 0.02760802595386354, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "latent", "weight": 0.03563066882913146, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "batchbias", "weight": 0.020512372723621893, "source": "statewide fallback" } ], "candidate_benchmarks": { "Abdul El-Sayed": { "opponent": "Haley Stevens", "expected_remaining_share_points": 48.32016286564123, "expected_final_county_share_points": 48.32016286564123, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 47.0877023519475, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 47.0877023519475, "required_final_county_share_points": 47.0877023519475, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 47.0877023519475, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 12.348533911789305, "feasible": true, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": false }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 47.0877023519475, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 47.0877023519475, "required_final_county_share_points": 47.0877023519475, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 47.0877023519475, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 47.742972592446094, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 47.742972592446094, "required_final_county_share_points": 47.742972592446094, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.024044322225107804, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999973, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.39840954113892, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.39840954113892, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.39840954113892, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.003259695682198218, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.9999999999999996, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": 1.2324605136937308, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "ABOVE", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.05228098268762563, "criticality_score": 0.04242000624501757, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 5.967571592337215, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 5.967571592337215, "feasible": true, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 42.63180876620562, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 42.63180876620562, "feasible": true, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 61.796855212233964, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 61.796855212233964, "feasible": true, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false } } }, "Haley Stevens": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 47.702062163697065, "expected_final_county_share_points": 47.702062163697065, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.934522677390795, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.934522677390795, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.934522677390795, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 48.934522677390795, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 83.673691117549, "feasible": true, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": false }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.934522677390795, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.934522677390795, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.934522677390795, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 48.934522677390795, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 49.58961977714004, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 49.58961977714004, "required_final_county_share_points": 49.58961977714004, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.07865391656842785, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.999999999999999, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 50.24453729886916, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 50.24453729886916, "required_final_county_share_points": 50.24453729886916, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.10597932088248406, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -1.2324605136937308, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.05228098268762563, "criticality_score": 0.04242000624501757, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 90.05465343700108, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 90.05465343700108, "feasible": true, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 126.71889061086948, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 145.88393705689782, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Mallory McMorrow": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 3.977774970661694, "expected_final_county_share_points": 3.977774970661694, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 33.863682428690794, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 33.863682428690794, "required_final_county_share_points": 33.863682428690794, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 33.863682428690794, "p90": 89.37896963558745 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 870.0690088140929, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 33.863682428690794, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 33.863682428690794, "required_final_county_share_points": 33.863682428690794, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 33.863682428690794, "p90": 89.37896963558745 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 34.500179277232114, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 34.500179277232114, "required_final_county_share_points": 34.500179277232114, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.159018308558073, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999906, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 35.13548073892272, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 35.13548073892272, "required_final_county_share_points": 35.13548073892272, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.213613509684069, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.999999999999993, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -29.8859074580291, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "WELL BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.05228098268762563, "criticality_score": 0.0017493523581657182, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 46.330366243965706, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 46.330366243965706, "feasible": true, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 82.99460341783411, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 82.99460341783411, "feasible": true, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 102.15964986386246, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } } } }, { "cid": "26125", "county": "26125", "fips": null, "reporting": 0.0, "current_votes": 0, "current_candidate_votes": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 0, "Haley Stevens": 0, "Mallory McMorrow": 0 }, "current_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": null, "Haley Stevens": null, "Mallory McMorrow": null }, "estimated_remaining_votes": 58294.288272976875, "estimated_final_votes": 58294.288272976875, "turnout_disagreement_votes": 0.0, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 48.44529292257174, "Haley Stevens": 48.29116444492259, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.2635426325056844 }, "remaining_sources": [ { "model": "market", "remaining_votes": 58294.288272976875, "weight": 0.1780093144963334 } ], "share_sources": [ { "model": "v0", "weight": 0.03630604611298715, "source": "statewide raw" }, { "model": "v3", "weight": 0.06301781787712588, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "market", "weight": 0.18729675699179427, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "histgeo", "weight": 0.02760802595386354, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "latent", "weight": 0.03563066882913146, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "batchbias", "weight": 0.020512372723621893, "source": "statewide fallback" } ], "candidate_benchmarks": { "Abdul El-Sayed": { "opponent": "Haley Stevens", "expected_remaining_share_points": 48.44529292257174, "expected_final_county_share_points": 48.44529292257174, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 47.20377120432641, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 47.20377120432641, "required_final_county_share_points": 47.20377120432641, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 47.20377120432641, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 8.839685299455613, "feasible": true, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": false }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 47.20377120432641, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 47.20377120432641, "required_final_county_share_points": 47.20377120432641, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 47.20377120432641, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 47.86382063640788, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 47.86382063640788, "required_final_county_share_points": 47.86382063640788, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.024044322225107804, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999973, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.52412530103267, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.52412530103267, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.524125301032676, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.003259695682198218, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.9999999999999996, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": 1.2415217182453304, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "ABOVE", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.04748398581529103, "criticality_score": 0.03824660101991705, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1.8140960439252893, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 1.8140960439252893, "feasible": true, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 42.18228157069173, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 42.18228157069173, "feasible": true, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 63.28344745322575, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 63.28344745322575, "feasible": true, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false } } }, "Haley Stevens": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 48.29116444492259, "expected_final_county_share_points": 48.291164444922586, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 49.53268616316792, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 49.53268616316792, "required_final_county_share_points": 49.53268616316792, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 49.53268616316792, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 87.89677206803871, "feasible": true, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": false }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 49.53268616316792, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 49.53268616316792, "required_final_county_share_points": 49.53268616316792, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 49.53268616316792, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 50.192473968431194, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 50.192473968431194, "required_final_county_share_points": 50.192473968431194, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.07865391656842785, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.999999999999999, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 50.85199375122856, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 50.85199375122856, "required_final_county_share_points": 50.85199375122856, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.10597932088248406, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -1.2415217182453233, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.04748398581529103, "criticality_score": 0.038246601019917274, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 94.92236132356905, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 94.92236132356905, "feasible": true, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 135.2905468503355, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 156.3917127328695, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Mallory McMorrow": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 3.2635426325056844, "expected_final_county_share_points": 3.263542632505684, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 31.052247924277015, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 31.052247924277015, "required_final_county_share_points": 31.052247924277015, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 31.052247924277015, "p90": 92.17588191432183 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 956.850315626011, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 31.052247924277015, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 31.052247924277015, "required_final_county_share_points": 31.052247924277015, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 31.052247924277015, "p90": 92.17588191432183 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 31.71537621950914, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 31.71537621950914, "required_final_county_share_points": 31.715376219509146, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.159018308558073, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999906, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 32.380589865647586, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 32.380589865647586, "required_final_county_share_points": 32.380589865647586, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.213613509684069, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.999999999999993, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -27.78870529177133, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "WELL BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.04748398581529103, "criticality_score": 0.0017087512828225136, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 49.89473951115213, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 49.89473951115213, "feasible": true, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 90.26292503791858, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 90.26292503791858, "feasible": true, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 111.3640909204526, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } } } }, { "cid": "fips:26125", "county": "Oakland", "fips": "26125", "reporting": 76.49, "current_votes": 189661, "current_candidate_votes": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 90108, "Haley Stevens": 94384, "Mallory McMorrow": 5169 }, "current_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 47.51003105540939, "Haley Stevens": 49.764579961088465, "Mallory McMorrow": 2.7253889835021434 }, "estimated_remaining_votes": 58294.28827297687, "estimated_final_votes": 247955.28827297688, "turnout_disagreement_votes": 7.275957614183426e-12, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 48.05095048633834, "Haley Stevens": 48.926352045629464, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.022697468032217 }, "remaining_sources": [ { "model": "v3", "remaining_votes": 58294.288272976875, "weight": 0.1342208488636769 }, { "model": "histgeo", "remaining_votes": 58294.288272976875, "weight": 0.05994207394479305 }, { "model": "latent", "remaining_votes": 58294.288272976875, "weight": 0.07672787409296966 }, { "model": "batchbias", "remaining_votes": 58294.288272976875, "weight": 0.045123489075924846 } ], "share_sources": [ { "model": "v0", "weight": 0.03630604611298715, "source": "statewide raw" }, { "model": "v1", "weight": 0.14599140026529184, "source": "county live" }, { "model": "v3", "weight": 0.15004242351696637, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "market", "weight": 0.0786646379365536, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "histgeo", "weight": 0.06573339512824654, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "latent", "weight": 0.08483492578364633, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "batchbias", "weight": 0.04883898267529022, "source": "county remaining" } ], "candidate_benchmarks": { "Abdul El-Sayed": { "opponent": "Haley Stevens", "expected_remaining_share_points": 48.05095048633834, "expected_final_county_share_points": 47.637201213620784, "current_county_share_points": 47.51003105540939, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 46.806775165819126, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 46.806775165819126, "required_final_county_share_points": 47.34469559576671, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 46.806775165819126, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 8.445342863222184, "feasible": true, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": false }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 46.806775165819126, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 46.806775165819126, "required_final_county_share_points": 47.34469559576671, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 46.806775165819126, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 47.46815093345519, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 47.46815093345519, "required_final_county_share_points": 47.50018503873796, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.024044322225107804, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999973, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.129974262940294, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.129974262940294, "required_final_county_share_points": 47.6557797034999, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.003259695682198218, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.9999999999999996, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": 1.2441753205192114, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "ABOVE", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.04748398581529102, "criticality_score": 0.038165027896129064, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1.4197536076918809, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 1.4197536076918809, "feasible": true, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 41.78793913445833, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 41.78793913445833, "feasible": true, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 62.889105016992346, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 62.889105016992346, "feasible": true, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false } } }, "Haley Stevens": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 48.926352045629464, "expected_final_county_share_points": 49.567512578164056, "current_county_share_points": 49.764579961088465, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 50.170527366148676, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 50.170527366148676, "required_final_county_share_points": 49.86001819601812, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 50.170527366148676, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 88.53195966874561, "feasible": true, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": false }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 50.170527366148676, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 50.170527366148676, "required_final_county_share_points": 49.86001819601812, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 50.170527366148676, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 50.831449473251624, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 50.831449473251624, "required_final_county_share_points": 50.01540098339802, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.07865391656842785, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.999999999999999, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 51.4919118268501, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 51.4919118268501, "required_final_county_share_points": 50.170675682729026, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.10597932088248406, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -1.2441753205192114, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.04748398581529102, "criticality_score": 0.038165027896129064, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 95.55754892427592, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 95.55754892427592, "feasible": true, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 135.92573445104236, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 157.0269003335764, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Mallory McMorrow": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 3.022697468032217, "expected_final_county_share_points": 2.7952862082151637, "current_county_share_points": 2.7253889835021434, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 29.826151683555835, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 29.826151683555835, "required_final_county_share_points": 9.096778294284768, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 29.826151683555835, "p90": 90.94978567360067 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 956.6094704615377, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 29.826151683555835, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 29.826151683555835, "required_final_county_share_points": 9.096778294284768, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 29.826151683555835, "p90": 90.94978567360067 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 30.490052066337945, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 30.490052066337945, "required_final_county_share_points": 9.25286127427684, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.159018308558073, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999906, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 31.157221746726655, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 31.157221746726655, "required_final_county_share_points": 9.409712866136227, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.213613509684069, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.999999999999993, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -26.80345421552362, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "WELL BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.04748398581529102, "criticality_score": 0.001771562181257592, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 49.653894346678676, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 49.653894346678676, "feasible": true, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 90.02207987344512, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 90.02207987344512, "feasible": true, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 111.12324575597916, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } } } }, { "cid": "26081", "county": "26081", "fips": null, "reporting": 0.0, "current_votes": 0, "current_candidate_votes": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 0, "Haley Stevens": 0, "Mallory McMorrow": 0 }, "current_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": null, "Haley Stevens": null, "Mallory McMorrow": null }, "estimated_remaining_votes": 46918.32971673878, "estimated_final_votes": 46918.32971673878, "turnout_disagreement_votes": 0.0, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 55.5704454339816, "Haley Stevens": 40.684312848059704, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.7452417179586988 }, "remaining_sources": [ { "model": "market", "remaining_votes": 46918.32971673878, "weight": 0.1780093144963334 } ], "share_sources": [ { "model": "v0", "weight": 0.03630604611298715, "source": "statewide raw" }, { "model": "v3", "weight": 0.06301781787712588, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "market", "weight": 0.18729675699179427, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "histgeo", "weight": 0.02760802595386354, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "latent", "weight": 0.03563066882913146, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "batchbias", "weight": 0.020512372723621893, "source": "statewide fallback" } ], "candidate_benchmarks": { "Abdul El-Sayed": { "opponent": "Haley Stevens", "expected_remaining_share_points": 55.5704454339816, "expected_final_county_share_points": 55.5704454339816, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 54.35989329691363, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 54.35989329691363, "required_final_county_share_points": 54.35989329691363, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 54.35989329691363, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 6.36194372586022, "feasible": true, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": false }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 54.35989329691363, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 54.35989329691363, "required_final_county_share_points": 54.35989329691363, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 54.35989329691363, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 55.00466430849242, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 55.00466430849242, "required_final_county_share_points": 55.00466430849242, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.024044322225107804, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999973, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 55.64699026577373, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 55.64699026577373, "required_final_county_share_points": 55.64699026577373, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.003259695682198218, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.9999999999999996, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": 1.210552137067964, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "ABOVE", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.038217625924417215, "criticality_score": 0.03157040886895032, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -2.367090914162368, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 47.788885617005285, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 47.788885617005285, "feasible": true, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 74.00630329318261, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 74.00630329318261, "feasible": true, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false } } }, "Haley Stevens": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 40.684312848059704, "expected_final_county_share_points": 40.684312848059704, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 41.89486498512767, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 41.89486498512767, "required_final_county_share_points": 41.89486498512767, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 41.89486498512767, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 89.8928145561811, "feasible": true, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": false }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 41.89486498512767, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 41.89486498512767, "required_final_county_share_points": 41.89486498512767, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 41.89486498512767, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 42.542088607376265, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 42.542088607376265, "required_final_county_share_points": 42.542088607376265, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.07865391656842785, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.999999999999999, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 43.191772393951084, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 43.191772393951084, "required_final_county_share_points": 43.191772393951084, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.10597932088248406, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -1.210552137067964, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.038217625924417215, "criticality_score": 0.03157040886895032, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 98.62184919620367, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 98.62184919620367, "feasible": true, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 148.7778257273713, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 174.99524340354864, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Mallory McMorrow": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 3.7452417179586988, "expected_final_county_share_points": 3.7452417179586983, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 35.62681895925808, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 35.62681895925808, "required_final_county_share_points": 35.62681895925808, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 35.62681895925808, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1188.5415158775038, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 35.62681895925808, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 35.62681895925808, "required_final_county_share_points": 35.62681895925808, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 35.62681895925808, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 36.38742530155471, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 36.38742530155471, "required_final_county_share_points": 36.38742530155471, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.159018308558073, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999906, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 37.15041458783238, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 37.15041458783238, "required_final_county_share_points": 37.15041458783238, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.213613509684069, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.999999999999993, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -31.881577241299382, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "WELL BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.038217625924417215, "criticality_score": 0.00119873698955239, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 61.682778066102664, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 61.682778066102664, "feasible": true, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 111.83875459727031, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 138.05617227344763, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } } } }, { "cid": "fips:26081", "county": "Kent", "fips": "26081", "reporting": 53.71, "current_votes": 44593, "current_candidate_votes": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 28845, "Haley Stevens": 14106, "Mallory McMorrow": 1642 }, "current_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 64.6850402529545, "Haley Stevens": 31.632767474715763, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.682192272329738 }, "estimated_remaining_votes": 46918.32971673878, "estimated_final_votes": 91511.32971673878, "turnout_disagreement_votes": 0.0, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 58.955819082444094, "Haley Stevens": 37.253445813321854, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.790735104234047 }, "remaining_sources": [ { "model": "v3", "remaining_votes": 46918.32971673878, "weight": 0.1342208488636769 }, { "model": "histgeo", "remaining_votes": 46918.32971673878, "weight": 0.05994207394479305 }, { "model": "latent", "remaining_votes": 46918.32971673878, "weight": 0.07672787409296966 }, { "model": "batchbias", "remaining_votes": 46918.32971673878, "weight": 0.045123489075924846 } ], "share_sources": [ { "model": "v0", "weight": 0.03630604611298715, "source": "statewide raw" }, { "model": "v1", "weight": 0.14599140026529184, "source": "county live" }, { "model": "v3", "weight": 0.15004242351696637, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "market", "weight": 0.0786646379365536, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "histgeo", "weight": 0.06573339512824654, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "latent", "weight": 0.08483492578364633, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "batchbias", "weight": 0.04883898267529022, "source": "county remaining" } ], "candidate_benchmarks": { "Abdul El-Sayed": { "opponent": "Haley Stevens", "expected_remaining_share_points": 58.955819082444094, "expected_final_county_share_points": 61.74763907290193, "current_county_share_points": 64.6850402529545, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 57.77711302226799, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 57.77711302226799, "required_final_county_share_points": 61.143310409537044, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 57.77711302226799, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 9.747317374322684, "feasible": true, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": false }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 57.77711302226799, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 57.77711302226799, "required_final_county_share_points": 61.143310409537044, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 57.77711302226799, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 58.405458715229976, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 58.405458715229976, "required_final_county_share_points": 61.46546648015406, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.024044322225107804, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999973, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 59.03020543489404, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 59.03020543489404, "required_final_county_share_points": 61.78577733863882, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.003259695682198218, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.9999999999999996, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": 1.1787060601761041, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "ABOVE", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.038217625924417215, "criticality_score": 0.03242337272679104, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1.0182827343001293, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 1.0182827343001293, "feasible": true, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 51.17425926546778, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 51.17425926546778, "feasible": true, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 77.3916769416451, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 77.3916769416451, "feasible": true, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false } } }, "Haley Stevens": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 37.253445813321854, "expected_final_county_share_points": 34.514518186225914, "current_county_share_points": 31.632767474715763, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 38.43215187349795, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 38.43215187349795, "required_final_county_share_points": 35.1188468495908, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 38.43215187349795, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 86.46194752144328, "feasible": true, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": false }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 38.43215187349795, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 38.43215187349795, "required_final_county_share_points": 35.1188468495908, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 38.43215187349795, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 39.064121442744295, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 39.064121442744295, "required_final_county_share_points": 35.4428609002294, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.07865391656842785, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.999999999999999, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 39.699739995801586, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 39.699739995801586, "required_final_county_share_points": 35.7687458036477, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.10597932088248406, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -1.178706060176097, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.038217625924417215, "criticality_score": 0.03242337272679124, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 95.19098216146583, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 95.19098216146583, "feasible": true, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 145.34695869263345, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 171.5643763688108, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Mallory McMorrow": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 3.790735104234047, "expected_final_county_share_points": 3.737842740872142, "current_county_share_points": 3.682192272329738, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 36.97590735309191, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 36.97590735309191, "required_final_county_share_points": 20.752051343218415, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 36.97590735309191, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1188.5870092637788, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 36.97590735309191, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 36.97590735309191, "required_final_county_share_points": 20.752051343218415, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 36.97590735309191, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 37.78822483357291, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 37.78822483357291, "required_final_county_share_points": 21.16853069612314, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.159018308558073, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999906, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 38.60407803748941, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 38.60407803748941, "required_final_county_share_points": 21.586822832630144, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.213613509684069, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.999999999999993, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -33.18517224885787, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "WELL BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.038217625924417215, "criticality_score": 0.0011516476587139772, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 61.72827145237801, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 61.72827145237801, "feasible": true, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 111.88424798354565, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 138.10166565972298, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } } } }, { "cid": "fips:26077", "county": "Kalamazoo", "fips": "26077", "reporting": 3.45, "current_votes": 1425, "current_candidate_votes": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 672, "Haley Stevens": 684, "Mallory McMorrow": 69 }, "current_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 47.1578947368421, "Haley Stevens": 48.0, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.842105263157895 }, "estimated_remaining_votes": 42085.15108479823, "estimated_final_votes": 43510.15108479823, "turnout_disagreement_votes": 0.0, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 48.734671319991016, "Haley Stevens": 47.095753229273704, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.169575450735297 }, "remaining_sources": [ { "model": "v3", "remaining_votes": 42085.15108479823, "weight": 0.1342208488636769 }, { "model": "histgeo", "remaining_votes": 42085.15108479823, "weight": 0.05994207394479305 }, { "model": "latent", "remaining_votes": 42085.15108479823, "weight": 0.07672787409296966 }, { "model": "batchbias", "remaining_votes": 42085.15108479823, "weight": 0.045123489075924846 } ], "share_sources": [ { "model": "v0", "weight": 0.03630604611298715, "source": "statewide raw" }, { "model": "v1", "weight": 0.14599140026529184, "source": "county live" }, { "model": "v3", "weight": 0.15004242351696637, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "market", "weight": 0.0786646379365536, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "histgeo", "weight": 0.06573339512824654, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "latent", "weight": 0.08483492578364633, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "batchbias", "weight": 0.04883898267529022, "source": "county remaining" } ], "candidate_benchmarks": { "Abdul El-Sayed": { "opponent": "Haley Stevens", "expected_remaining_share_points": 48.734671319991016, "expected_final_county_share_points": 48.68303034483999, "current_county_share_points": 47.1578947368421, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 47.504644632416884, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 47.504644632416884, "required_final_county_share_points": 47.49328823422302, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 47.504644632416884, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": -6.12507489682379, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": false }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 47.504644632416884, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 47.504644632416884, "required_final_county_share_points": 47.49328823422302, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 47.504644632416884, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.158704730197464, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.158704730197464, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.12592722414487, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.024044322225107804, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999973, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.812740738343926, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.812740738343926, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.75854291339167, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.003259695682198218, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.9999999999999996, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": 1.2300266875741315, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "ABOVE", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.03428072931926182, "criticality_score": 0.027869906942320537, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -15.856576739937118, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 40.05945500752544, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 40.05945500752544, "feasible": true, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 69.28775561107643, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 69.28775561107643, "feasible": true, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false } } }, "Haley Stevens": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 47.095753229273704, "expected_final_county_share_points": 47.12536819534848, "current_county_share_points": 48.0, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.325779916847814, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.325779916847814, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.31511030596544, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 48.325779916847814, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 101.95549944608851, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.325779916847814, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.325779916847814, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.31511030596544, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 48.325779916847814, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.97985761860826, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.97985761860826, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.947766323319584, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.07865391656842785, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.999999999999999, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 49.633946426461115, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 49.633946426461115, "required_final_county_share_points": 49.58043308303077, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.10597932088248406, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -1.2300266875741102, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.03428072931926182, "criticality_score": 0.02786990694232102, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 111.68700128920185, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 167.60303303666439, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 196.83133364021538, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Mallory McMorrow": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 4.169575450735297, "expected_final_county_share_points": 4.191601459811534, "current_county_share_points": 4.842105263157895, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 34.71907000596008, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 34.71907000596008, "required_final_county_share_points": 33.74057019161749, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 34.71907000596008, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1325.0312286778897, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 34.71907000596008, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 34.71907000596008, "required_final_county_share_points": 33.74057019161749, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 34.71907000596008, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 35.35515269829529, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 35.35515269829529, "required_final_county_share_points": 34.355820553703815, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.159018308558073, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999906, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 35.98944958427998, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 35.98944958427998, "required_final_county_share_points": 34.969343596344075, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.213613509684069, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.999999999999993, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -30.54949455522478, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "WELL BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.03428072931926182, "criticality_score": 0.0011221373649011454, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 68.76082351066343, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 68.76082351066343, "feasible": true, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 124.67685525812597, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 153.90515586167697, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } } } }, { "cid": "26077", "county": "26077", "fips": null, "reporting": 0.0, "current_votes": 0, "current_candidate_votes": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 0, "Haley Stevens": 0, "Mallory McMorrow": 0 }, "current_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": null, "Haley Stevens": null, "Mallory McMorrow": null }, "estimated_remaining_votes": 42085.15108479823, "estimated_final_votes": 42085.15108479823, "turnout_disagreement_votes": 0.0, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 50.90024768957419, "Haley Stevens": 45.17966253889734, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.9200897715284615 }, "remaining_sources": [ { "model": "market", "remaining_votes": 42085.15108479823, "weight": 0.1780093144963334 } ], "share_sources": [ { "model": "v0", "weight": 0.03630604611298715, "source": "statewide raw" }, { "model": "v3", "weight": 0.06301781787712588, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "market", "weight": 0.18729675699179427, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "histgeo", "weight": 0.02760802595386354, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "latent", "weight": 0.03563066882913146, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "batchbias", "weight": 0.020512372723621893, "source": "statewide fallback" } ], "candidate_benchmarks": { "Abdul El-Sayed": { "opponent": "Haley Stevens", "expected_remaining_share_points": 50.90024768957419, "expected_final_county_share_points": 50.9002476895742, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 49.669690025912665, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 49.669690025912665, "required_final_county_share_points": 49.66969002591267, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 49.669690025912665, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": -3.9594985272406014, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": false }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 49.669690025912665, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 49.669690025912665, "required_final_county_share_points": 49.66969002591267, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 49.669690025912665, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 50.3243665304265, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 50.3243665304265, "required_final_county_share_points": 50.3243665304265, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.024044322225107804, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999973, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 50.978260301772785, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 50.978260301772785, "required_final_county_share_points": 50.978260301772785, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.003259695682198218, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.9999999999999996, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": 1.2305576636615285, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "ABOVE", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.03428072931926182, "criticality_score": 0.027857881293639985, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -13.69100037035394, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 42.22503137710862, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 42.22503137710862, "feasible": true, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 71.45333198065961, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 71.45333198065961, "feasible": true, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false } } }, "Haley Stevens": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 45.17966253889734, "expected_final_county_share_points": 45.17966253889735, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 46.41022020255887, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 46.41022020255887, "required_final_county_share_points": 46.41022020255887, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 46.41022020255887, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 100.03940875571213, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 46.41022020255887, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 46.41022020255887, "required_final_county_share_points": 46.41022020255887, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 46.41022020255887, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 47.065674342109794, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 47.065674342109794, "required_final_county_share_points": 47.0656743421098, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.07865391656842785, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.999999999999999, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 47.7219009794269, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 47.7219009794269, "required_final_county_share_points": 47.7219009794269, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.10597932088248406, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -1.2305576636615285, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.03428072931926182, "criticality_score": 0.027857881293639985, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 109.77091059882548, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 165.68694234628802, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 194.915242949839, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Mallory McMorrow": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 3.9200897715284615, "expected_final_county_share_points": 3.9200897715284615, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 34.655365995069495, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 34.655365995069495, "required_final_county_share_points": 34.655365995069495, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 34.655365995069495, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1324.781742998683, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 34.655365995069495, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 34.655365995069495, "required_final_county_share_points": 34.655365995069495, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 34.655365995069495, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 35.33567012761816, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 35.33567012761816, "required_final_county_share_points": 35.33567012761816, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.159018308558073, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999906, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 36.01580912167236, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 36.01580912167236, "required_final_county_share_points": 36.01580912167236, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.213613509684069, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.999999999999993, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -30.735276223541035, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "WELL BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.03428072931926182, "criticality_score": 0.001115354521948471, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 68.5113378314566, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 68.5113378314566, "feasible": true, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 124.42736957891914, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 153.65567018247015, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } } } }, { "cid": "26065", "county": "26065", "fips": null, "reporting": 0.0, "current_votes": 0, "current_candidate_votes": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 0, "Haley Stevens": 0, "Mallory McMorrow": 0 }, "current_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": null, "Haley Stevens": null, "Mallory McMorrow": null }, "estimated_remaining_votes": 38632.62316125496, "estimated_final_votes": 38632.62316125496, "turnout_disagreement_votes": 0.0, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 54.99777016776418, "Haley Stevens": 41.14031902440786, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.861910807827952 }, "remaining_sources": [ { "model": "market", "remaining_votes": 38632.62316125496, "weight": 0.1780093144963334 } ], "share_sources": [ { "model": "v0", "weight": 0.03630604611298715, "source": "statewide raw" }, { "model": "v3", "weight": 0.06301781787712588, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "market", "weight": 0.18729675699179427, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "histgeo", "weight": 0.02760802595386354, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "latent", "weight": 0.03563066882913146, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "batchbias", "weight": 0.020512372723621893, "source": "statewide fallback" } ], "candidate_benchmarks": { "Abdul El-Sayed": { "opponent": "Haley Stevens", "expected_remaining_share_points": 54.99777016776418, "expected_final_county_share_points": 54.99777016776418, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 53.785122988624344, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 53.785122988624344, "required_final_county_share_points": 53.785122988624344, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 53.785122988624344, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": -4.764692721989583, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": false }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 53.785122988624344, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 53.785122988624344, "required_final_county_share_points": 53.785122988624344, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 53.785122988624344, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 54.43092810739958, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 54.43092810739958, "required_final_county_share_points": 54.43092810739958, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.024044322225107804, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999973, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 55.07446955736345, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 55.07446955736345, "required_final_county_share_points": 55.07446955736345, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.003259695682198218, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.9999999999999996, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": 1.2126471791398359, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "ABOVE", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.031468450589984986, "criticality_score": 0.02595021134861867, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -15.36588135057223, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 45.54726540448473, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 45.54726540448473, "feasible": true, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 77.38764656933402, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 77.38764656933402, "feasible": true, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false } } }, "Haley Stevens": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 41.14031902440786, "expected_final_county_share_points": 41.14031902440786, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 42.35296620354768, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 42.35296620354768, "required_final_county_share_points": 42.35296620354768, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 42.35296620354768, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 100.90278191416162, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 42.35296620354768, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 42.35296620354768, "required_final_county_share_points": 42.35296620354768, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 42.35296620354768, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 43.00104051727138, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 43.00104051727138, "required_final_county_share_points": 43.00104051727138, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.07865391656842785, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.999999999999999, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 43.65138953432688, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 43.65138953432688, "required_final_county_share_points": 43.65138953432688, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.10597932088248406, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -1.2126471791398217, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.031468450589984986, "criticality_score": 0.025950211348618975, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 111.50397054274427, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 172.4171172978012, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 204.25749846265052, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Mallory McMorrow": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 3.861910807827952, "expected_final_county_share_points": 3.861910807827952, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 35.929829627630944, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 35.929829627630944, "required_final_county_share_points": 35.929829627630944, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 35.929829627630944, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1442.7665900513427, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 35.929829627630944, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 35.929829627630944, "required_final_county_share_points": 35.929829627630944, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 35.929829627630944, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 36.67768764353921, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 36.67768764353921, "required_final_county_share_points": 36.67768764353921, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.159018308558073, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999906, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 37.42710211756107, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 37.42710211756107, "required_final_county_share_points": 37.42710211756107, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.213613509684069, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.999999999999993, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -32.06791881980299, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "WELL BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.031468450589984986, "criticality_score": 0.0009813062945186262, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 74.22556232616436, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 74.22556232616436, "feasible": true, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 135.1387090812213, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 166.9790902460706, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } } } }, { "cid": "fips:26065", "county": "Ingham", "fips": "26065", "reporting": 34.23, "current_votes": 18881, "current_candidate_votes": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 12359, "Haley Stevens": 5816, "Mallory McMorrow": 706 }, "current_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 65.45733806472114, "Haley Stevens": 30.8034532069276, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.7392087283512523 }, "estimated_remaining_votes": 38632.62316125496, "estimated_final_votes": 57513.62316125496, "turnout_disagreement_votes": 0.0, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 58.788481646433965, "Haley Stevens": 37.46941742968788, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.742100923878158 }, "remaining_sources": [ { "model": "v3", "remaining_votes": 38632.62316125496, "weight": 0.1342208488636769 }, { "model": "histgeo", "remaining_votes": 38632.62316125496, "weight": 0.05994207394479305 }, { "model": "latent", "remaining_votes": 38632.62316125496, "weight": 0.07672787409296966 }, { "model": "batchbias", "remaining_votes": 38632.62316125496, "weight": 0.045123489075924846 } ], "share_sources": [ { "model": "v0", "weight": 0.03630604611298715, "source": "statewide raw" }, { "model": "v1", "weight": 0.14599140026529184, "source": "county live" }, { "model": "v3", "weight": 0.15004242351696637, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "market", "weight": 0.0786646379365536, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "histgeo", "weight": 0.06573339512824654, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "latent", "weight": 0.08483492578364633, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "batchbias", "weight": 0.04883898267529022, "source": "county remaining" } ], "candidate_benchmarks": { "Abdul El-Sayed": { "opponent": "Haley Stevens", "expected_remaining_share_points": 58.788481646433965, "expected_final_county_share_points": 60.97778343464934, "current_county_share_points": 65.45733806472114, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 57.60702941012321, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 57.60702941012321, "required_final_county_share_points": 60.18418712616352, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 57.60702941012321, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": -0.9739812433198602, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": false }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 57.60702941012321, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 57.60702941012321, "required_final_county_share_points": 60.18418712616352, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 57.60702941012321, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 58.23680794169639, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 58.23680794169639, "required_final_county_share_points": 60.607217277074035, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.024044322225107804, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999973, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 58.863049687974744, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 58.863049687974744, "required_final_county_share_points": 61.02787172487304, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.003259695682198218, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.9999999999999996, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": 1.1814522363107542, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "ABOVE", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.031468450589984986, "criticality_score": 0.02663539804897193, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -11.575169871902446, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 49.33797688315452, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 49.33797688315452, "feasible": true, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 81.1783580480038, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 81.1783580480038, "feasible": true, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false } } }, "Haley Stevens": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 37.46941742968788, "expected_final_county_share_points": 35.28106511293235, "current_county_share_points": 30.8034532069276, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 38.650869665998634, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 38.650869665998634, "required_final_county_share_points": 36.074661421418156, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 38.650869665998634, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 97.2318803194417, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 38.650869665998634, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 38.650869665998634, "required_final_county_share_points": 36.074661421418156, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 38.650869665998634, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 39.28420873044954, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 39.28420873044954, "required_final_county_share_points": 36.50008322698989, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.07865391656842785, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.999999999999999, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 39.921132262353645, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 39.921132262353645, "required_final_county_share_points": 36.92791276437788, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.10597932088248406, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -1.1814522363107542, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.031468450589984986, "criticality_score": 0.02663539804897193, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 107.83306894802429, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 168.74621570308125, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 200.58659686793055, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Mallory McMorrow": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 3.742100923878158, "expected_final_county_share_points": 3.7411514524183196, "current_county_share_points": 3.7392087283512523, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 36.696095482698844, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 36.696095482698844, "required_final_county_share_points": 25.87676356434333, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 36.696095482698844, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1442.6467801673932, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 36.696095482698844, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 36.696095482698844, "required_final_county_share_points": 25.87676356434333, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 36.696095482698844, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 37.50716003370873, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 37.50716003370873, "required_final_county_share_points": 26.421565811817203, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.159018308558073, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999906, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 38.32196796166269, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 38.32196796166269, "required_final_county_share_points": 26.968882532608575, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.213613509684069, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.999999999999993, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -32.95399455882069, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "WELL BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.031468450589984986, "criticality_score": 0.0009549206708102077, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 74.10575244221457, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 74.10575244221457, "feasible": true, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 135.0188991972715, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 166.8592803621208, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } } } }, { "cid": "fips:26161", "county": "Washtenaw", "fips": "26161", "reporting": 64.95, "current_votes": 58927, "current_candidate_votes": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 37769, "Haley Stevens": 19283, "Mallory McMorrow": 1875 }, "current_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 64.0945576730531, "Haley Stevens": 32.72353929438118, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.1819030325657165 }, "estimated_remaining_votes": 36375.12128089261, "estimated_final_votes": 95302.1212808926, "turnout_disagreement_votes": 0.0, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 59.70931040800656, "Haley Stevens": 36.93183416316839, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.358855428825059 }, "remaining_sources": [ { "model": "v3", "remaining_votes": 36375.12128089261, "weight": 0.1342208488636769 }, { "model": "histgeo", "remaining_votes": 36375.12128089261, "weight": 0.05994207394479305 }, { "model": "latent", "remaining_votes": 36375.12128089261, "weight": 0.07672787409296966 }, { "model": "batchbias", "remaining_votes": 36375.12128089261, "weight": 0.045123489075924846 } ], "share_sources": [ { "model": "v0", "weight": 0.03630604611298715, "source": "statewide raw" }, { "model": "v1", "weight": 0.14599140026529184, "source": "county live" }, { "model": "v3", "weight": 0.15004242351696637, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "market", "weight": 0.0786646379365536, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "histgeo", "weight": 0.06573339512824654, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "latent", "weight": 0.08483492578364633, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "batchbias", "weight": 0.04883898267529022, "source": "county remaining" } ], "candidate_benchmarks": { "Abdul El-Sayed": { "opponent": "Haley Stevens", "expected_remaining_share_points": 59.70931040800656, "expected_final_county_share_points": 62.420786942991164, "current_county_share_points": 64.0945576730531, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 58.53082666603289, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 58.53082666603289, "required_final_county_share_points": 61.970980700845665, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 58.53082666603289, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": -3.7621125511002274, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": false }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 58.53082666603289, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 58.53082666603289, "required_final_county_share_points": 61.970980700845665, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 58.53082666603289, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 59.1591304661044, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 59.1591304661044, "required_final_county_share_points": 62.210793064113915, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.024044322225107804, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999973, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 59.78366208045847, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 59.78366208045847, "required_final_county_share_points": 62.44916565131922, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.003259695682198218, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.9999999999999996, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": 1.1784837419736718, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "ABOVE", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.029629587976839223, "criticality_score": 0.02514212705829689, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -15.021228972645943, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 49.67229124911234, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 49.67229124911234, "feasible": true, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 83.48874061167396, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 83.48874061167396, "feasible": true, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false } } }, "Haley Stevens": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 36.93183416316839, "expected_final_county_share_points": 34.3297704483207, "current_county_share_points": 32.72353929438118, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 38.110317905142054, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 38.110317905142054, "required_final_county_share_points": 34.7795766904662, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 38.110317905142054, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 100.40325712227518, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 38.110317905142054, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 38.110317905142054, "required_final_county_share_points": 34.7795766904662, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 38.110317905142054, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 38.74242188266314, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 38.74242188266314, "required_final_county_share_points": 35.020839513742665, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.07865391656842785, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.999999999999999, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 39.378354281914575, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 39.378354281914575, "required_final_county_share_points": 35.26356357736597, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.10597932088248406, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -1.1784837419736647, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.029629587976839223, "criticality_score": 0.02514212705829704, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 111.66237354382089, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 176.35589376557917, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 210.1723431281408, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Mallory McMorrow": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 3.358855428825059, "expected_final_county_share_points": 3.2494426086881285, "current_county_share_points": 3.1819030325657165, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 35.10368748023869, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 35.10368748023869, "required_final_county_share_points": 15.365879267094925, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 35.10368748023869, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1531.5644058356409, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 35.10368748023869, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 35.10368748023869, "required_final_county_share_points": 15.365879267094925, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 35.10368748023869, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 35.937715925702456, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 35.937715925702456, "required_final_county_share_points": 15.684213061219415, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.159018308558073, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999906, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 36.77832079129234, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 36.77832079129234, "required_final_county_share_points": 16.00505695770539, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.213613509684069, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.999999999999993, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -31.74483205141363, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "WELL BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.029629587976839223, "criticality_score": 0.0009333672935755786, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 78.08939480947757, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 78.08939480947757, "feasible": true, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 142.78291503123583, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 176.59936439379746, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } } } }, { "cid": "26161", "county": "26161", "fips": null, "reporting": 0.0, "current_votes": 0, "current_candidate_votes": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 0, "Haley Stevens": 0, "Mallory McMorrow": 0 }, "current_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": null, "Haley Stevens": null, "Mallory McMorrow": null }, "estimated_remaining_votes": 36375.12128089261, "estimated_final_votes": 36375.12128089261, "turnout_disagreement_votes": 0.0, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 55.250256384218766, "Haley Stevens": 41.28135115729634, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.4683924584848826 }, "remaining_sources": [ { "model": "market", "remaining_votes": 36375.12128089261, "weight": 0.1780093144963334 } ], "share_sources": [ { "model": "v0", "weight": 0.03630604611298715, "source": "statewide raw" }, { "model": "v3", "weight": 0.06301781787712588, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "market", "weight": 0.18729675699179427, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "histgeo", "weight": 0.02760802595386354, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "latent", "weight": 0.03563066882913146, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "batchbias", "weight": 0.020512372723621893, "source": "statewide fallback" } ], "candidate_benchmarks": { "Abdul El-Sayed": { "opponent": "Haley Stevens", "expected_remaining_share_points": 55.250256384218766, "expected_final_county_share_points": 55.250256384218766, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 54.03283138290259, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 54.03283138290259, "required_final_county_share_points": 54.03283138290259, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 54.03283138290259, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": -8.22116657488804, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": false }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 54.03283138290259, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 54.03283138290259, "required_final_county_share_points": 54.03283138290259, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 54.03283138290259, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 54.6811853966236, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 54.6811853966236, "required_final_county_share_points": 54.6811853966236, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.024044322225107804, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999973, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 55.32725677303125, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 55.32725677303125, "required_final_county_share_points": 55.32725677303125, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.003259695682198218, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.9999999999999996, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": 1.2174250013161725, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "ABOVE", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.029629587976839223, "criticality_score": 0.024337916458760357, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -19.480282996433736, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 45.21323722532455, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 45.21323722532455, "feasible": true, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 79.02968658788618, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 79.02968658788618, "feasible": true, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false } } }, "Haley Stevens": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 41.28135115729634, "expected_final_county_share_points": 41.28135115729634, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 42.498776158612515, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 42.498776158612515, "required_final_county_share_points": 42.498776158612515, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 42.498776158612515, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 104.75277411640316, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 42.498776158612515, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 42.498776158612515, "required_final_county_share_points": 42.498776158612515, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 42.498776158612515, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 43.14941846403302, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 43.14941846403302, "required_final_county_share_points": 43.14941846403302, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.07865391656842785, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.999999999999999, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 43.802354698439075, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 43.802354698439075, "required_final_county_share_points": 43.802354698439075, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.10597932088248406, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -1.2174250013161725, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.029629587976839223, "criticality_score": 0.024337916458760357, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 116.01189053794884, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 180.70541075970712, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 214.52186012226875, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Mallory McMorrow": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 3.4683924584848826, "expected_final_county_share_points": 3.4683924584848826, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 34.26117635214319, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 34.26117635214319, "required_final_county_share_points": 34.26117635214319, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 34.26117635214319, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1531.6739428653004, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 34.26117635214319, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 34.26117635214319, "required_final_county_share_points": 34.26117635214319, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 34.26117635214319, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 35.02473832137051, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 35.02473832137051, "required_final_county_share_points": 35.02473832137051, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.159018308558073, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999906, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 35.79210175411999, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 35.79210175411999, "required_final_county_share_points": 35.79210175411999, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.213613509684069, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.999999999999993, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -30.792783893658306, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "WELL BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.029629587976839223, "criticality_score": 0.0009622250485426671, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 78.19893183913739, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 78.19893183913739, "feasible": true, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 142.89245206089566, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 176.7089014234573, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } } } }, { "cid": "26121", "county": "26121", "fips": null, "reporting": 0.0, "current_votes": 0, "current_candidate_votes": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 0, "Haley Stevens": 0, "Mallory McMorrow": 0 }, "current_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": null, "Haley Stevens": null, "Mallory McMorrow": null }, "estimated_remaining_votes": 24944.417489173677, "estimated_final_votes": 24944.417489173677, "turnout_disagreement_votes": 0.0, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 51.520003701578986, "Haley Stevens": 44.646485246666586, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.8335110517544244 }, "remaining_sources": [ { "model": "market", "remaining_votes": 24944.417489173677, "weight": 0.1780093144963334 } ], "share_sources": [ { "model": "v0", "weight": 0.03630604611298715, "source": "statewide raw" }, { "model": "v3", "weight": 0.06301781787712588, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "market", "weight": 0.18729675699179427, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "histgeo", "weight": 0.02760802595386354, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "latent", "weight": 0.03563066882913146, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "batchbias", "weight": 0.020512372723621893, "source": "statewide fallback" } ], "candidate_benchmarks": { "Abdul El-Sayed": { "opponent": "Haley Stevens", "expected_remaining_share_points": 51.520003701578986, "expected_final_county_share_points": 51.520003701578986, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 50.28989257017238, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 50.28989257017238, "required_final_county_share_points": 50.28989257017238, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 50.28989257017238, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": -41.03700665997362, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": false }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 50.28989257017238, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 50.28989257017238, "required_final_county_share_points": 50.28989257017238, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 50.28989257017238, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 50.944425492966886, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 50.944425492966886, "required_final_county_share_points": 50.944425492966886, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.024044322225107804, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999973, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 51.59796256226642, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 51.59796256226642, "required_final_county_share_points": 51.59796256226642, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.003259695682198218, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.9999999999999996, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": 1.230111131406609, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "ABOVE", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.02031863500382924, "criticality_score": 0.01651772306181415, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -57.45557909315096, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 36.88355090159362, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 36.88355090159362, "feasible": true, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 86.1962858005432, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 86.1962858005432, "feasible": true, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false } } }, "Haley Stevens": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 44.646485246666586, "expected_final_county_share_points": 44.64648524666659, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 45.876596378073195, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 45.876596378073195, "required_final_county_share_points": 45.876596378073195, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 45.876596378073195, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 137.20349560821919, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 45.876596378073195, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 45.876596378073195, "required_final_county_share_points": 45.876596378073195, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 45.876596378073195, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 46.53212092613422, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 46.53212092613422, "required_final_county_share_points": 46.53212092613422, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.07865391656842785, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.999999999999999, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 47.18863282712712, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 47.18863282712712, "required_final_county_share_points": 47.18863282712712, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.10597932088248406, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -1.230111131406609, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.02031863500382924, "criticality_score": 0.01651772306181415, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 153.62206804139652, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 247.96119803614107, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 297.27393293509067, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Mallory McMorrow": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 3.8335110517544244, "expected_final_county_share_points": 3.833511051754424, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 34.54719716022258, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 34.54719716022258, "required_final_county_share_points": 34.54719716022258, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 34.54719716022258, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 2232.334628077543, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 34.54719716022258, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 34.54719716022258, "required_final_county_share_points": 34.54719716022258, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 34.54719716022258, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 35.24050484242717, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 35.24050484242717, "required_final_county_share_points": 35.240504842427164, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.159018308558073, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999906, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 35.93423972785248, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 35.93423972785248, "required_final_county_share_points": 35.93423972785248, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.213613509684069, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.999999999999993, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -30.713686108468156, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "WELL BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.02031863500382924, "criticality_score": 0.0006615498684225705, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 112.80909384648437, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 207.1482238412289, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 256.4609587401785, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } } } }, { "cid": "fips:26121", "county": "Muskegon", "fips": "26121", "reporting": 0.0, "current_votes": 0, "current_candidate_votes": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 0, "Haley Stevens": 0, "Mallory McMorrow": 0 }, "current_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": null, "Haley Stevens": null, "Mallory McMorrow": null }, "estimated_remaining_votes": 24944.417489173677, "estimated_final_votes": 24944.417489173677, "turnout_disagreement_votes": 0.0, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 49.30414521844237, "Haley Stevens": 46.83807110573469, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.8577836758229345 }, "remaining_sources": [ { "model": "v3", "remaining_votes": 24944.417489173677, "weight": 0.1342208488636769 }, { "model": "histgeo", "remaining_votes": 24944.417489173677, "weight": 0.05994207394479305 }, { "model": "latent", "remaining_votes": 24944.417489173677, "weight": 0.07672787409296966 }, { "model": "batchbias", "remaining_votes": 24944.417489173677, "weight": 0.045123489075924846 } ], "share_sources": [ { "model": "v0", "weight": 0.03630604611298715, "source": "statewide raw" }, { "model": "v3", "weight": 0.15004242351696637, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "market", "weight": 0.0786646379365536, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "histgeo", "weight": 0.06573339512824654, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "latent", "weight": 0.08483492578364633, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "batchbias", "weight": 0.04883898267529022, "source": "county remaining" } ], "candidate_benchmarks": { "Abdul El-Sayed": { "opponent": "Haley Stevens", "expected_remaining_share_points": 49.30414521844237, "expected_final_county_share_points": 49.304145218442365, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.07029682055077, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.07029682055077, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.07029682055077, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 48.07029682055077, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": -43.252865143110256, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": false }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.07029682055077, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.07029682055077, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.07029682055077, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 48.07029682055077, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.72645653346215, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.72645653346215, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.72645653346215, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.024044322225107804, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999973, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 49.38243891942384, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 49.38243891942384, "required_final_county_share_points": 49.38243891942384, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.003259695682198218, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.9999999999999996, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": 1.2338483978915988, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "ABOVE", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.02031863500382924, "criticality_score": 0.016467691686069163, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -59.67143757628757, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 34.66769241845701, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 34.66769241845701, "feasible": true, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 83.98042731740657, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 83.98042731740657, "feasible": true, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false } } }, "Haley Stevens": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 46.83807110573469, "expected_final_county_share_points": 46.83807110573469, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.07191950362628, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.07191950362628, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.07191950362628, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 48.07191950362628, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 139.3950814672873, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.07191950362628, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.07191950362628, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.07191950362628, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 48.07191950362628, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.728250105311396, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.728250105311396, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.728250105311396, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.07865391656842785, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.999999999999999, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 49.38474513927121, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 49.38474513927121, "required_final_county_share_points": 49.38474513927121, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.10597932088248406, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -1.2338483978915917, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.02031863500382924, "criticality_score": 0.01646769168606926, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 155.81365390046463, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 250.15278389520918, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 299.4655187941588, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Mallory McMorrow": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 3.8577836758229345, "expected_final_county_share_points": 3.8577836758229345, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 33.80235596161166, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 33.80235596161166, "required_final_county_share_points": 33.80235596161166, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 33.80235596161166, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 2232.358900701611, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 33.80235596161166, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 33.80235596161166, "required_final_county_share_points": 33.80235596161166, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 33.80235596161166, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 34.459156584430986, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 34.459156584430986, "required_final_county_share_points": 34.459156584430986, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.159018308558073, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999906, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 35.11554033322278, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 35.11554033322278, "required_final_county_share_points": 35.11554033322278, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.213613509684069, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.999999999999993, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -29.944572285788727, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "WELL BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.02031863500382924, "criticality_score": 0.0006785415002728952, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 112.83336647055287, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 207.17249646529743, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 256.48523136424706, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } } } }, { "cid": "26145", "county": "26145", "fips": null, "reporting": 0.0, "current_votes": 0, "current_candidate_votes": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 0, "Haley Stevens": 0, "Mallory McMorrow": 0 }, "current_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": null, "Haley Stevens": null, "Mallory McMorrow": null }, "estimated_remaining_votes": 24686.364928707186, "estimated_final_votes": 24686.364928707186, "turnout_disagreement_votes": 0.0, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 47.3164798825988, "Haley Stevens": 48.541891474829086, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.141628642572111 }, "remaining_sources": [ { "model": "market", "remaining_votes": 24686.364928707186, "weight": 0.1780093144963334 } ], "share_sources": [ { "model": "v0", "weight": 0.03630604611298715, "source": "statewide raw" }, { "model": "v3", "weight": 0.06301781787712588, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "market", "weight": 0.18729675699179427, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "histgeo", "weight": 0.02760802595386354, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "latent", "weight": 0.03563066882913146, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "batchbias", "weight": 0.020512372723621893, "source": "statewide fallback" } ], "candidate_benchmarks": { "Abdul El-Sayed": { "opponent": "Haley Stevens", "expected_remaining_share_points": 47.3164798825988, "expected_final_county_share_points": 47.3164798825988, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 46.08687925613225, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 46.08687925613225, "required_final_county_share_points": 46.08687925613225, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 46.08687925613225, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": -46.20805135867433, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": false }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 46.08687925613225, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 46.08687925613225, "required_final_county_share_points": 46.08687925613225, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 46.08687925613225, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 46.740477928228145, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 46.740477928228145, "required_final_county_share_points": 46.740477928228145, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.024044322225107804, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999973, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 47.39458595471629, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 47.39458595471629, "required_final_county_share_points": 47.39458595471629, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.003259695682198218, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.9999999999999996, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": 1.2296006264665493, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "ABOVE", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.020108436638195008, "criticality_score": 0.016353632395243456, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -62.79825111194597, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 32.527028691311564, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 32.527028691311564, "feasible": true, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 82.35524156934105, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 82.35524156934105, "feasible": true, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false } } }, "Haley Stevens": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 48.541891474829086, "expected_final_county_share_points": 48.54189147482909, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 49.77149210129564, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 49.77149210129564, "required_final_county_share_points": 49.77149210129564, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 49.77149210129564, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 142.0664227161022, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 49.77149210129564, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 49.77149210129564, "required_final_county_share_points": 49.77149210129564, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 49.77149210129564, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 50.424575539235505, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 50.424575539235505, "required_final_county_share_points": 50.424575539235505, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.07865391656842785, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.999999999999999, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 51.077137871230214, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 51.077137871230214, "required_final_county_share_points": 51.077137871230214, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.10597932088248406, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -1.2296006264665564, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.020108436638195008, "criticality_score": 0.01635363239524336, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 158.65662246937387, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 253.98190227263137, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 303.81011515066086, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Mallory McMorrow": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 4.141628642572111, "expected_final_county_share_points": 4.141628642572111, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 34.033815887345995, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 34.033815887345995, "required_final_county_share_points": 34.033815887345995, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 34.033815887345995, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 2255.9378083846295, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 34.033815887345995, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 34.033815887345995, "required_final_county_share_points": 34.033815887345995, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 34.033815887345995, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 34.64787734773098, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 34.64787734773098, "required_final_county_share_points": 34.64787734773098, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.159018308558073, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999906, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 35.25988086202239, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 35.25988086202239, "required_final_county_share_points": 35.25988086202239, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.213613509684069, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.999999999999993, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -29.892187244773883, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "WELL BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.020108436638195008, "criticality_score": 0.0006726987380861737, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 114.25635963711689, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 209.58163944037437, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 259.4098523184039, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } } } }, { "cid": "fips:26145", "county": "Saginaw", "fips": "26145", "reporting": 16.6, "current_votes": 4432, "current_candidate_votes": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 1944, "Haley Stevens": 2277, "Mallory McMorrow": 211 }, "current_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 43.86281588447653, "Haley Stevens": 51.37635379061371, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.760830324909747 }, "estimated_remaining_votes": 24686.364928707186, "estimated_final_votes": 29118.364928707186, "turnout_disagreement_votes": 0.0, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 46.635453647741876, "Haley Stevens": 49.07054608614816, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.294000266109956 }, "remaining_sources": [ { "model": "v3", "remaining_votes": 24686.364928707186, "weight": 0.1342208488636769 }, { "model": "histgeo", "remaining_votes": 24686.364928707186, "weight": 0.05994207394479305 }, { "model": "latent", "remaining_votes": 24686.364928707186, "weight": 0.07672787409296966 }, { "model": "batchbias", "remaining_votes": 24686.364928707186, "weight": 0.045123489075924846 } ], "share_sources": [ { "model": "v0", "weight": 0.03630604611298715, "source": "statewide raw" }, { "model": "v1", "weight": 0.14599140026529184, "source": "county live" }, { "model": "v3", "weight": 0.15004242351696637, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "market", "weight": 0.0786646379365536, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "histgeo", "weight": 0.06573339512824654, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "latent", "weight": 0.08483492578364633, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "batchbias", "weight": 0.04883898267529022, "source": "county remaining" } ], "candidate_benchmarks": { "Abdul El-Sayed": { "opponent": "Haley Stevens", "expected_remaining_share_points": 46.635453647741876, "expected_final_county_share_points": 46.21344057809053, "current_county_share_points": 43.86281588447653, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 45.408800211700914, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 45.408800211700914, "required_final_county_share_points": 45.17349158242059, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 45.408800211700914, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": -46.88907759353095, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": false }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 45.408800211700914, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 45.408800211700914, "required_final_county_share_points": 45.17349158242059, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 45.408800211700914, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 46.06073309027297, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 46.06073309027297, "required_final_county_share_points": 45.72619613808009, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.024044322225107804, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999973, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 46.71339942917931, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 46.71339942917931, "required_final_county_share_points": 46.279522516754625, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.003259695682198218, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.9999999999999996, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": 1.2266534360409622, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "ABOVE", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.020108436638195008, "criticality_score": 0.016392924070791515, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -63.479277346802895, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 31.84600245645464, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 31.84600245645464, "feasible": true, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 81.67421533448413, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 81.67421533448413, "feasible": true, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false } } }, "Haley Stevens": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 49.07054608614816, "expected_final_county_share_points": 49.42150465718099, "current_county_share_points": 51.37635379061371, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 50.29719952218914, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 50.29719952218914, "required_final_county_share_points": 50.46145365285094, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 50.29719952218914, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 142.595077327421, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 50.29719952218914, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 50.29719952218914, "required_final_county_share_points": 50.46145365285094, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 50.29719952218914, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 50.948393721474886, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 50.948393721474886, "required_final_county_share_points": 51.013531960901005, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.07865391656842785, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.999999999999999, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 51.59884403751327, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 51.59884403751327, "required_final_county_share_points": 51.56497960945651, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.10597932088248406, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -1.2266534360409764, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.020108436638195008, "criticality_score": 0.016392924070791324, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 159.18527708069294, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 254.51055688395044, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 304.33876976197996, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Mallory McMorrow": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 4.294000266109956, "expected_final_county_share_points": 4.3650547647284865, "current_county_share_points": 4.760830324909747, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 34.25681460170472, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 34.25681460170472, "required_final_county_share_points": 29.767338539610478, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 34.25681460170472, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 2256.090180008168, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 34.25681460170472, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 34.25681460170472, "required_final_county_share_points": 29.767338539610478, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 34.25681460170472, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 34.854017700893344, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 34.854017700893344, "required_final_county_share_points": 30.273643535760552, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.159018308558073, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999906, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 35.44850819991381, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 35.44850819991381, "required_final_county_share_points": 30.777648806708978, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.213613509684069, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.999999999999993, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -29.962814335594764, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "WELL BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.020108436638195008, "criticality_score": 0.0006711130807998531, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 114.40873126065473, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 209.73401106391222, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 259.56222394194174, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } } } }, { "cid": "fips:26017", "county": "Bay", "fips": "26017", "reporting": 5.77, "current_votes": 926, "current_candidate_votes": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 448, "Haley Stevens": 432, "Mallory McMorrow": 46 }, "current_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 48.38012958963283, "Haley Stevens": 46.652267818574515, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.967602591792657 }, "estimated_remaining_votes": 15508.356874900292, "estimated_final_votes": 16434.35687490029, "turnout_disagreement_votes": 0.0, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 48.94823120464311, "Haley Stevens": 46.78114167917028, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.2706271161866125 }, "remaining_sources": [ { "model": "v3", "remaining_votes": 15508.356874900292, "weight": 0.1342208488636769 }, { "model": "histgeo", "remaining_votes": 15508.356874900292, "weight": 0.05994207394479305 }, { "model": "latent", "remaining_votes": 15508.356874900292, "weight": 0.07672787409296966 }, { "model": "batchbias", "remaining_votes": 15508.356874900292, "weight": 0.045123489075924846 } ], "share_sources": [ { "model": "v0", "weight": 0.03630604611298715, "source": "statewide raw" }, { "model": "v1", "weight": 0.14599140026529184, "source": "county live" }, { "model": "v3", "weight": 0.15004242351696637, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "market", "weight": 0.0786646379365536, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "histgeo", "weight": 0.06573339512824654, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "latent", "weight": 0.08483492578364633, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "batchbias", "weight": 0.04883898267529022, "source": "county remaining" } ], "candidate_benchmarks": { "Abdul El-Sayed": { "opponent": "Haley Stevens", "expected_remaining_share_points": 48.94823120464311, "expected_final_county_share_points": 48.916221306141814, "current_county_share_points": 48.38012958963283, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 47.7195972929087, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 47.7195972929087, "required_final_county_share_points": 47.756815232827044, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 47.7195972929087, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": -99.9250973260551, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": false }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 47.7195972929087, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 47.7195972929087, "required_final_county_share_points": 47.756815232827044, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 47.7195972929087, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.3729602760429, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.3729602760429, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.37336423370518, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.024044322225107804, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999973, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 49.026200436303476, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 49.026200436303476, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.98979733221056, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.003259695682198218, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.9999999999999996, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": 1.2286339117344056, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "ABOVE", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.01263243140422051, "criticality_score": 0.010281688697968536, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -126.33355108122093, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 25.406227873889396, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 25.406227873889396, "feasible": true, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 104.72329910038265, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Haley Stevens": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 46.78114167917028, "expected_final_county_share_points": 46.773880233175156, "current_county_share_points": 46.652267818574515, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.00977559090469, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.00977559090469, "required_final_county_share_points": 47.93328630648994, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 48.00977559090469, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 195.6544702098685, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.00977559090469, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.00977559090469, "required_final_county_share_points": 47.93328630648994, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 48.00977559090469, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.66325495001475, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.66325495001475, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.54994512609595, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.07865391656842785, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.999999999999999, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 49.31684422207041, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 49.31684422207041, "required_final_county_share_points": 49.16670766556143, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.10597932088248406, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -1.2286339117344056, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.01263243140422051, "criticality_score": 0.010281688697968536, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 222.06292396503432, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 373.8027029201446, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 453.1197741466379, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Mallory McMorrow": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 4.2706271161866125, "expected_final_county_share_points": 4.309898460683025, "current_county_share_points": 4.967602591792657, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 35.159803189352836, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 35.159803189352836, "required_final_county_share_points": 33.45861232644538, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 35.159803189352836, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 3588.703374349994, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 35.159803189352836, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 35.159803189352836, "required_final_county_share_points": 33.45861232644538, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 35.159803189352836, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 35.79556220568631, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 35.79556220568631, "required_final_county_share_points": 34.058549262632596, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.159018308558073, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999906, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 36.42923939774374, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 36.42923939774374, "required_final_county_share_points": 34.65652167571317, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.213613509684069, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.999999999999993, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -30.889176073166222, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "WELL BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.01263243140422051, "criticality_score": 0.00040895980437608524, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 179.55240940205064, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 331.29218835716097, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 410.60925958365425, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } } } }, { "cid": "26017", "county": "26017", "fips": null, "reporting": 0.0, "current_votes": 0, "current_candidate_votes": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 0, "Haley Stevens": 0, "Mallory McMorrow": 0 }, "current_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": null, "Haley Stevens": null, "Mallory McMorrow": null }, "estimated_remaining_votes": 15508.356874900292, "estimated_final_votes": 15508.356874900292, "turnout_disagreement_votes": 0.0, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 48.09081675932247, "Haley Stevens": 47.77542810416066, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.133755136516871 }, "remaining_sources": [ { "model": "market", "remaining_votes": 15508.356874900292, "weight": 0.1780093144963334 } ], "share_sources": [ { "model": "v0", "weight": 0.03630604611298715, "source": "statewide raw" }, { "model": "v3", "weight": 0.06301781787712588, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "market", "weight": 0.18729675699179427, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "histgeo", "weight": 0.02760802595386354, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "latent", "weight": 0.03563066882913146, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "batchbias", "weight": 0.020512372723621893, "source": "statewide fallback" } ], "candidate_benchmarks": { "Abdul El-Sayed": { "opponent": "Haley Stevens", "expected_remaining_share_points": 48.09081675932247, "expected_final_county_share_points": 48.090816759322465, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 46.86042001365787, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 46.86042001365787, "required_final_county_share_points": 46.86042001365787, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 46.86042001365787, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": -100.78251177137562, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": false }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 46.86042001365787, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 46.86042001365787, "required_final_county_share_points": 46.86042001365787, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 46.86042001365787, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 47.51456824629479, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 47.51456824629479, "required_final_county_share_points": 47.51456824629479, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.024044322225107804, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999973, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.168939121809295, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.168939121809295, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.168939121809295, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.003259695682198218, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.9999999999999996, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": 1.2303967456645992, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "ABOVE", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.01263243140422051, "criticality_score": 0.01026695775060515, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -127.19096552654156, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 24.54881342856876, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 24.54881342856876, "feasible": true, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 103.86588465506202, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Haley Stevens": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 47.77542810416066, "expected_final_county_share_points": 47.77542810416066, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 49.005824849825245, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 49.005824849825245, "required_final_county_share_points": 49.005824849825245, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 49.005824849825245, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 196.64875663485876, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 49.005824849825245, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 49.005824849825245, "required_final_county_share_points": 49.005824849825245, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 49.005824849825245, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 49.6597440690023, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 49.6597440690023, "required_final_county_share_points": 49.6597440690023, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.07865391656842785, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.999999999999999, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 50.313427901612286, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 50.313427901612286, "required_final_county_share_points": 50.313427901612286, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.10597932088248406, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -1.230396745664585, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.01263243140422051, "criticality_score": 0.010266957750605269, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 223.0572103900247, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 374.796989345135, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 454.1140605716283, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Mallory McMorrow": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 4.133755136516871, "expected_final_county_share_points": 4.133755136516871, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 34.328019054981205, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 34.328019054981205, "required_final_county_share_points": 34.328019054981205, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 34.328019054981205, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 3588.566502370324, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 34.328019054981205, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 34.328019054981205, "required_final_county_share_points": 34.328019054981205, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 34.328019054981205, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 34.9549754989393, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 34.9549754989393, "required_final_county_share_points": 34.95497549893929, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.159018308558073, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999906, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 35.58010168604368, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 35.58010168604368, "required_final_county_share_points": 35.58010168604368, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.213613509684069, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.999999999999993, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -30.194263918464333, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "WELL BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.01263243140422051, "criticality_score": 0.00041837189468611465, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 179.4155374223809, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 331.1553163774912, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 410.4723876039845, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } } } }, { "cid": "26075", "county": "26075", "fips": null, "reporting": 0.0, "current_votes": 0, "current_candidate_votes": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 0, "Haley Stevens": 0, "Mallory McMorrow": 0 }, "current_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": null, "Haley Stevens": null, "Mallory McMorrow": null }, "estimated_remaining_votes": 15316.60702633344, "estimated_final_votes": 15316.60702633344, "turnout_disagreement_votes": 0.0, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 50.606605283895725, "Haley Stevens": 45.36304140959665, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.030353306507629 }, "remaining_sources": [ { "model": "market", "remaining_votes": 15316.60702633344, "weight": 0.1780093144963334 } ], "share_sources": [ { "model": "v0", "weight": 0.03630604611298715, "source": "statewide raw" }, { "model": "v3", "weight": 0.06301781787712588, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "market", "weight": 0.18729675699179427, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "histgeo", "weight": 0.02760802595386354, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "latent", "weight": 0.03563066882913146, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "batchbias", "weight": 0.020512372723621893, "source": "statewide fallback" } ], "candidate_benchmarks": { "Abdul El-Sayed": { "opponent": "Haley Stevens", "expected_remaining_share_points": 50.606605283895725, "expected_final_county_share_points": 50.606605283895725, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 49.376924379193724, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 49.376924379193724, "required_final_county_share_points": 49.376924379193724, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 49.376924379193724, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": -100.13048054973008, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": false }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 49.376924379193724, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 49.376924379193724, "required_final_county_share_points": 49.376924379193724, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 49.376924379193724, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 50.03109585494552, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 50.03109585494552, "required_final_county_share_points": 50.03109585494552, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.024044322225107804, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999973, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 50.68457275969681, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 50.68457275969681, "required_final_county_share_points": 50.68457275969681, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.003259695682198218, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.9999999999999996, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": 1.2296809047020005, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "ABOVE", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.01247624033715068, "criticality_score": 0.010145916952474885, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -126.86954388440233, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 26.76987769953472, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 26.76987769953472, "feasible": true, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 107.07992578900406, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Haley Stevens": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 45.36304140959665, "expected_final_county_share_points": 45.36304140959665, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 46.592722314298655, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 46.592722314298655, "required_final_county_share_points": 46.592722314298655, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 46.592722314298655, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 196.10012724322246, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 46.592722314298655, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 46.592722314298655, "required_final_county_share_points": 46.592722314298655, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 46.592722314298655, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 47.24758297092966, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 47.24758297092966, "required_final_county_share_points": 47.24758297092966, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.07865391656842785, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.999999999999999, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 47.90312738170466, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 47.90312738170466, "required_final_county_share_points": 47.90312738170466, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.10597932088248406, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -1.2296809047020076, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.01247624033715068, "criticality_score": 0.010145916952474826, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 222.83919057789473, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 376.47861216183173, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 456.7886602513011, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Mallory McMorrow": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 4.030353306507629, "expected_final_county_share_points": 4.030353306507629, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 34.96345619028115, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 34.96345619028115, "required_final_county_share_points": 34.96345619028115, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 34.96345619028115, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 3633.3369055088992, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 34.96345619028115, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 34.96345619028115, "required_final_county_share_points": 34.96345619028115, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 34.96345619028115, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 35.63504956600276, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 35.63504956600276, "required_final_county_share_points": 35.63504956600276, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.159018308558073, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999906, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 36.305924281425874, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 36.305924281425874, "required_final_county_share_points": 36.305924281425874, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.213613509684069, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.999999999999993, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -30.933102883773522, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "WELL BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.01247624033715068, "criticality_score": 0.00040332973979455847, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 181.5065024748057, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 335.1459240587427, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 415.4559721482121, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } } } }, { "cid": "fips:26075", "county": "Jackson", "fips": "26075", "reporting": 3.46, "current_votes": 581, "current_candidate_votes": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 254, "Haley Stevens": 302, "Mallory McMorrow": 25 }, "current_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 43.71772805507745, "Haley Stevens": 51.97934595524957, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.3029259896729775 }, "estimated_remaining_votes": 15316.60702633344, "estimated_final_votes": 15897.60702633344, "turnout_disagreement_votes": 0.0, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 47.36537022909766, "Haley Stevens": 48.62499020594374, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.009639564958597 }, "remaining_sources": [ { "model": "v3", "remaining_votes": 15316.60702633344, "weight": 0.1342208488636769 }, { "model": "histgeo", "remaining_votes": 15316.60702633344, "weight": 0.05994207394479305 }, { "model": "latent", "remaining_votes": 15316.60702633344, "weight": 0.07672787409296966 }, { "model": "batchbias", "remaining_votes": 15316.60702633344, "weight": 0.045123489075924846 } ], "share_sources": [ { "model": "v0", "weight": 0.03630604611298715, "source": "statewide raw" }, { "model": "v1", "weight": 0.14599140026529184, "source": "county live" }, { "model": "v3", "weight": 0.15004242351696637, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "market", "weight": 0.0786646379365536, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "histgeo", "weight": 0.06573339512824654, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "latent", "weight": 0.08483492578364633, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "batchbias", "weight": 0.04883898267529022, "source": "county remaining" } ], "candidate_benchmarks": { "Abdul El-Sayed": { "opponent": "Haley Stevens", "expected_remaining_share_points": 47.36537022909766, "expected_final_county_share_points": 47.232062109228096, "current_county_share_points": 43.71772805507745, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 46.134098056014075, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 46.134098056014075, "required_final_county_share_points": 46.04578847783551, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 46.134098056014075, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": -103.3717156045284, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": false }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 46.134098056014075, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 46.134098056014075, "required_final_county_share_points": 46.04578847783551, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 46.134098056014075, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 46.78858257956388, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 46.78858257956388, "required_final_county_share_points": 46.676353960767905, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.024044322225107804, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999973, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 47.44358320345049, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 47.44358320345049, "required_final_county_share_points": 47.30741668243767, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.003259695682198218, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.9999999999999996, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": 1.2312721730835818, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "ABOVE", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.01247624033715068, "criticality_score": 0.010132804598276065, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -130.1107789392004, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 23.528642644736653, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 23.528642644736653, "feasible": true, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 103.838690734206, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Haley Stevens": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 48.62499020594374, "expected_final_county_share_points": 48.74757976845579, "current_county_share_points": 51.97934595524957, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 49.856262379027314, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 49.856262379027314, "required_final_county_share_points": 49.933853399848374, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 49.856262379027314, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 199.36207603956979, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 49.856262379027314, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 49.856262379027314, "required_final_county_share_points": 49.933853399848374, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 49.856262379027314, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 50.51022492881373, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 50.51022492881373, "required_final_county_share_points": 50.56391598526929, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.07865391656842785, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.999999999999999, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 51.163659639601335, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 51.163659639601335, "required_final_county_share_points": 51.19347002229645, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.10597932088248406, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -1.2312721730835747, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.01247624033715068, "criticality_score": 0.010132804598276124, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 226.1011393742418, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 379.74056095817883, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 460.0506090476482, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Mallory McMorrow": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 4.009639564958597, "expected_final_county_share_points": 4.020358122316116, "current_county_share_points": 4.3029259896729775, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 33.592282874341414, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 33.592282874341414, "required_final_county_share_points": 32.52186288460305, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 33.592282874341414, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 3633.3161917673506, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 33.592282874341414, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 33.592282874341414, "required_final_county_share_points": 32.52186288460305, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 33.592282874341414, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 34.21209487299835, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 34.21209487299835, "required_final_county_share_points": 33.11902299794019, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.159018308558073, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999906, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 34.830324568074964, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 34.830324568074964, "required_final_county_share_points": 33.71465863516618, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.213613509684069, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.999999999999993, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -29.582643309382817, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "WELL BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.01247624033715068, "criticality_score": 0.0004217419047605375, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 181.48578873325667, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 335.1252103171937, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 415.4352584066631, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } } } }, { "cid": "fips:26021", "county": "Berrien", "fips": "26021", "reporting": 9.46, "current_votes": 1294, "current_candidate_votes": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 756, "Haley Stevens": 463, "Mallory McMorrow": 75 }, "current_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 58.42349304482226, "Haley Stevens": 35.7805255023184, "Mallory McMorrow": 5.795981452859351 }, "estimated_remaining_votes": 15056.65577827919, "estimated_final_votes": 16350.65577827919, "turnout_disagreement_votes": 0.0, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 53.085371165674864, "Haley Stevens": 42.26469102741573, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.649937806909396 }, "remaining_sources": [ { "model": "v3", "remaining_votes": 15056.65577827919, "weight": 0.1342208488636769 }, { "model": "histgeo", "remaining_votes": 15056.65577827919, "weight": 0.05994207394479305 }, { "model": "latent", "remaining_votes": 15056.65577827919, "weight": 0.07672787409296966 }, { "model": "batchbias", "remaining_votes": 15056.65577827919, "weight": 0.045123489075924846 } ], "share_sources": [ { "model": "v0", "weight": 0.03630604611298715, "source": "statewide raw" }, { "model": "v1", "weight": 0.14599140026529184, "source": "county live" }, { "model": "v3", "weight": 0.15004242351696637, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "market", "weight": 0.0786646379365536, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "histgeo", "weight": 0.06573339512824654, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "latent", "weight": 0.08483492578364633, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "batchbias", "weight": 0.04883898267529022, "source": "county remaining" } ], "candidate_benchmarks": { "Abdul El-Sayed": { "opponent": "Haley Stevens", "expected_remaining_share_points": 53.085371165674864, "expected_final_county_share_points": 53.507833102693496, "current_county_share_points": 58.42349304482226, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 51.87392000209867, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 51.87392000209867, "required_final_county_share_points": 52.39225685856549, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 51.87392000209867, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": -100.25417129361414, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": false }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 51.87392000209867, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 51.87392000209867, "required_final_county_share_points": 52.39225685856549, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 51.87392000209867, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 52.5188500712964, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 52.5188500712964, "required_final_county_share_points": 52.986146803082065, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.024044322225107804, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999973, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 53.162059256950315, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 53.162059256950315, "required_final_county_share_points": 53.57845205573645, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.003259695682198218, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.9999999999999996, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": 1.2114511635761929, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "ABOVE", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.012264495383383103, "criticality_score": 0.010123805029976136, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -127.45488115776845, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 28.837105509624475, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 28.837105509624475, "feasible": true, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 110.53369637058172, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Haley Stevens": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 42.26469102741573, "expected_final_county_share_points": 41.7515305583034, "current_county_share_points": 35.7805255023184, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 43.476142190991936, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 43.476142190991936, "required_final_county_share_points": 42.867106802431415, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 43.476142190991936, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 195.60423348670471, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 43.476142190991936, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 43.476142190991936, "required_final_county_share_points": 42.867106802431415, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 43.476142190991936, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 44.12279363742372, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 44.12279363742372, "required_final_county_share_points": 43.46258189342953, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.07865391656842785, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.999999999999999, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 44.771166911734745, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 44.771166911734745, "required_final_county_share_points": 44.059642545890064, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.10597932088248406, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -1.211451163576207, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.012264495383383103, "criticality_score": 0.010123805029976016, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 222.80494335085905, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 379.09693001825195, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 460.79352087920927, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Mallory McMorrow": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 4.649937806909396, "expected_final_county_share_points": 4.740636339003092, "current_county_share_points": 5.795981452859351, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 38.19482019241035, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 38.19482019241035, "required_final_county_share_points": 35.63075805952192, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 38.19482019241035, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 3696.616006286317, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 38.19482019241035, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 38.19482019241035, "required_final_county_share_points": 35.63075805952192, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 38.19482019241035, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 38.88362237610174, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 38.88362237610174, "required_final_county_share_points": 36.26504805496943, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.159018308558073, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999906, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 39.57010432212596, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 39.57010432212596, "required_final_county_share_points": 36.89720143765031, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.213613509684069, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.999999999999993, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -33.544882385500955, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "WELL BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.012264495383383103, "criticality_score": 0.0003656144994768014, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 185.19019013035273, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 341.48217679774564, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 423.17876765870295, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } } } }, { "cid": "26021", "county": "26021", "fips": null, "reporting": 0.0, "current_votes": 0, "current_candidate_votes": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 0, "Haley Stevens": 0, "Mallory McMorrow": 0 }, "current_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": null, "Haley Stevens": null, "Mallory McMorrow": null }, "estimated_remaining_votes": 15056.655778279188, "estimated_final_votes": 15056.655778279188, "turnout_disagreement_votes": 1.8189894035458565e-12, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 50.64093249871947, "Haley Stevens": 44.4879633172606, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.871104184019935 }, "remaining_sources": [ { "model": "market", "remaining_votes": 15056.65577827919, "weight": 0.1780093144963334 } ], "share_sources": [ { "model": "v0", "weight": 0.03630604611298715, "source": "statewide raw" }, { "model": "v3", "weight": 0.06301781787712588, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "market", "weight": 0.18729675699179427, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "histgeo", "weight": 0.02760802595386354, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "latent", "weight": 0.03563066882913146, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "batchbias", "weight": 0.020512372723621893, "source": "statewide fallback" } ], "candidate_benchmarks": { "Abdul El-Sayed": { "opponent": "Haley Stevens", "expected_remaining_share_points": 50.64093249871947, "expected_final_county_share_points": 50.64093249871947, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 49.4231749376425, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 49.4231749376425, "required_final_county_share_points": 49.4231749376425, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 49.4231749376425, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": -102.69860996056961, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": false }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 49.4231749376425, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 49.4231749376425, "required_final_county_share_points": 49.4231749376425, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 49.4231749376425, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 50.071081648442714, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 50.071081648442714, "required_final_county_share_points": 50.071081648442714, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.024044322225107804, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999973, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 50.71812278550689, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 50.71812278550689, "required_final_county_share_points": 50.71812278550689, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.003259695682198218, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.9999999999999996, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": 1.2177575610769722, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "ABOVE", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.012264495383383103, "criticality_score": 0.010071376910636063, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -129.89931982472385, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 26.392666842669083, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 26.392666842669083, "feasible": true, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 108.08925770362633, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Haley Stevens": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 44.4879633172606, "expected_final_county_share_points": 44.48796331726059, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 45.705720878337566, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 45.705720878337566, "required_final_county_share_points": 45.705720878337566, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 45.705720878337566, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 197.82750577654969, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 45.705720878337566, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 45.705720878337566, "required_final_county_share_points": 45.705720878337566, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 45.705720878337566, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 46.35448846239838, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 46.35448846239838, "required_final_county_share_points": 46.35448846239838, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.07865391656842785, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.999999999999999, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 47.00411217818334, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 47.00411217818334, "required_final_county_share_points": 47.00411217818334, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.10597932088248406, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -1.217757561076965, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.012264495383383103, "criticality_score": 0.010071376910636122, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 225.02821564070393, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 381.32020230809684, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 463.01679316905415, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Mallory McMorrow": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 4.871104184019935, "expected_final_county_share_points": 4.871104184019935, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 37.86933215353064, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 37.86933215353064, "required_final_county_share_points": 37.86933215353064, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 37.86933215353064, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 3696.8371726634273, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 37.86933215353064, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 37.86933215353064, "required_final_county_share_points": 37.86933215353064, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 37.86933215353064, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 38.50992868634179, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 38.50992868634179, "required_final_county_share_points": 38.50992868634179, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.159018308558073, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999906, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 39.146969063228, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 39.146969063228, "required_final_county_share_points": 39.14696906322799, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.213613509684069, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.999999999999993, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -32.99822796951071, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "WELL BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.012264495383383103, "criticality_score": 0.0003716713332217445, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 185.41135650746327, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 341.7033431748562, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 423.3999340358135, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } } } }, { "cid": "26139", "county": "26139", "fips": null, "reporting": 0.0, "current_votes": 0, "current_candidate_votes": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 0, "Haley Stevens": 0, "Mallory McMorrow": 0 }, "current_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": null, "Haley Stevens": null, "Mallory McMorrow": null }, "estimated_remaining_votes": 14785.060276468925, "estimated_final_votes": 14785.060276468925, "turnout_disagreement_votes": 0.0, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 51.474063544729454, "Haley Stevens": 44.494875217609255, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.031061237661287 }, "remaining_sources": [ { "model": "market", "remaining_votes": 14785.060276468925, "weight": 0.1780093144963334 } ], "share_sources": [ { "model": "v0", "weight": 0.03630604611298715, "source": "statewide raw" }, { "model": "v3", "weight": 0.06301781787712588, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "market", "weight": 0.18729675699179427, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "histgeo", "weight": 0.02760802595386354, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "latent", "weight": 0.03563066882913146, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "batchbias", "weight": 0.020512372723621893, "source": "statewide fallback" } ], "candidate_benchmarks": { "Abdul El-Sayed": { "opponent": "Haley Stevens", "expected_remaining_share_points": 51.474063544729454, "expected_final_county_share_points": 51.474063544729454, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 50.2466620638926, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 50.2466620638926, "required_final_county_share_points": 50.2466620638926, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 50.2466620638926, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": -104.68226350676511, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": false }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 50.2466620638926, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 50.2466620638926, "required_final_county_share_points": 50.2466620638926, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 50.2466620638926, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 50.89976301044866, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 50.89976301044866, "required_final_county_share_points": 50.89976301044866, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.024044322225107804, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999973, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 51.55184802510339, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 51.55184802510339, "required_final_county_share_points": 51.55184802510339, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.003259695682198218, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.9999999999999996, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": 1.2274014808368534, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "ABOVE", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.012043265528151579, "criticality_score": 0.009812001790922047, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -132.38263927061865, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 26.780367179859766, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 26.780367179859766, "feasible": true, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 109.977690954729, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Haley Stevens": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 44.494875217609255, "expected_final_county_share_points": 44.49487521760926, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 45.72227669844611, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 45.72227669844611, "required_final_county_share_points": 45.72227669844611, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 45.72227669844611, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 200.65120226910383, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 45.72227669844611, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 45.72227669844611, "required_final_county_share_points": 45.72227669844611, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 45.72227669844611, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 46.3763894606778, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 46.3763894606778, "required_final_county_share_points": 46.3763894606778, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.07865391656842785, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.999999999999999, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 47.03150987793309, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 47.03150987793309, "required_final_county_share_points": 47.03150987793309, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.10597932088248406, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -1.2274014808368534, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.012043265528151579, "criticality_score": 0.009812001790922047, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 228.35157803295738, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 387.5145844834358, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 470.7119082583051, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Mallory McMorrow": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 4.031061237661287, "expected_final_county_share_points": 4.031061237661287, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 35.30338873457184, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 35.30338873457184, "required_final_county_share_points": 35.30338873457184, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 35.30338873457184, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 3763.8170342886447, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 35.30338873457184, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 35.30338873457184, "required_final_county_share_points": 35.30338873457184, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 35.30338873457184, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 35.98896992775103, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 35.98896992775103, "required_final_county_share_points": 35.98896992775103, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.159018308558073, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999906, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 36.674101309651924, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 36.674101309651924, "required_final_county_share_points": 36.674101309651924, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.213613509684069, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.999999999999993, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -31.272327496910552, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "WELL BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.012043265528151579, "criticality_score": 0.0003851093440148116, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 187.8877640530094, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 347.0507705034878, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 430.2480942783571, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } } } }, { "cid": "fips:26139", "county": "Ottawa", "fips": "26139", "reporting": 38.53, "current_votes": 9627, "current_candidate_votes": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 5161, "Haley Stevens": 4028, "Mallory McMorrow": 438 }, "current_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 53.609639555417054, "Haley Stevens": 41.840656486963745, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.5497039576191955 }, "estimated_remaining_votes": 14785.060276468925, "estimated_final_votes": 24412.060276468925, "turnout_disagreement_votes": 0.0, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 51.92798716506366, "Haley Stevens": 43.837043408724, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.234969426212333 }, "remaining_sources": [ { "model": "v3", "remaining_votes": 14785.060276468925, "weight": 0.1342208488636769 }, { "model": "histgeo", "remaining_votes": 14785.060276468925, "weight": 0.05994207394479305 }, { "model": "latent", "remaining_votes": 14785.060276468925, "weight": 0.07672787409296966 }, { "model": "batchbias", "remaining_votes": 14785.060276468925, "weight": 0.045123489075924846 } ], "share_sources": [ { "model": "v0", "weight": 0.03630604611298715, "source": "statewide raw" }, { "model": "v1", "weight": 0.14599140026529184, "source": "county live" }, { "model": "v3", "weight": 0.15004242351696637, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "market", "weight": 0.0786646379365536, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "histgeo", "weight": 0.06573339512824654, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "latent", "weight": 0.08483492578364633, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "batchbias", "weight": 0.04883898267529022, "source": "county remaining" } ], "candidate_benchmarks": { "Abdul El-Sayed": { "opponent": "Haley Stevens", "expected_remaining_share_points": 51.92798716506366, "expected_final_county_share_points": 52.591153951422, "current_county_share_points": 53.609639555417054, "recent_batch_votes": 1248, "recent_batch_share_points": 53.766025641025635, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 50.70510086282513, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 50.70510086282513, "required_final_county_share_points": 51.8505180737, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 50.70510086282513, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": -104.22833988643102, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": false }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 50.70510086282513, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 50.70510086282513, "required_final_county_share_points": 51.8505180737, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 50.70510086282513, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 51.35589139750238, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 51.35589139750238, "required_final_county_share_points": 52.244666587737285, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.024044322225107804, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999973, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 52.00546057406791, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 52.00546057406791, "required_final_county_share_points": 52.63807539143891, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.003259695682198218, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.9999999999999996, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": 1.2228863022385354, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": 3.0609247782005085, "status": "ABOVE", "recent_status": "WELL ABOVE", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.012043265528151579, "criticality_score": 0.009848229967173536, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -131.92871565028446, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 27.234290800193975, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 27.234290800193975, "feasible": true, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 110.43161457506321, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Haley Stevens": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 43.837043408724, "expected_final_county_share_points": 43.049759718690204, "current_county_share_points": 41.840656486963745, "recent_batch_votes": 1248, "recent_batch_share_points": 42.78846153846153, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 45.059929710962535, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 45.059929710962535, "required_final_county_share_points": 43.79039559641221, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 45.059929710962535, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 199.99337046021864, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 45.059929710962535, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 45.059929710962535, "required_final_county_share_points": 43.79039559641221, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 45.059929710962535, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 45.711938579264114, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 45.711938579264114, "required_final_county_share_points": 44.18528198901722, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.07865391656842785, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.999999999999999, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 46.36516270962666, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 46.36516270962666, "required_final_county_share_points": 44.58090439991073, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.10597932088248406, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -1.2228863022385354, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -2.2714681725010024, "status": "BELOW", "recent_status": "BELOW", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.012043265528151579, "criticality_score": 0.009848229967173536, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 227.69374622407213, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 386.85675267455053, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 470.0540764494198, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Mallory McMorrow": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 4.234969426212333, "expected_final_county_share_points": 4.359086329887787, "current_county_share_points": 4.5497039576191955, "recent_batch_votes": 1248, "recent_batch_share_points": 3.4455128205128207, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 36.24624986729695, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 36.24624986729695, "required_final_county_share_points": 23.746581915608402, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 36.24624986729695, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 3764.020942477195, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 36.24624986729695, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 36.24624986729695, "required_final_county_share_points": 23.746581915608402, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 36.24624986729695, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 36.93173999641782, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 36.93173999641782, "required_final_county_share_points": 24.161746091151002, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.159018308558073, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999906, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 37.61609863788673, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 37.61609863788673, "required_final_county_share_points": 24.57622498601894, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.213613509684069, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.999999999999993, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -32.01128044108462, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -32.800737046784135, "status": "WELL BELOW", "recent_status": "WELL BELOW", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.012043265528151579, "criticality_score": 0.0003762194252215774, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 188.09167224156045, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 347.25467869203885, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 430.45200246690814, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } } } }, { "cid": "fips:26103", "county": "Marquette", "fips": "26103", "reporting": 0.0, "current_votes": 0, "current_candidate_votes": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 0, "Haley Stevens": 0, "Mallory McMorrow": 0 }, "current_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": null, "Haley Stevens": null, "Mallory McMorrow": null }, "estimated_remaining_votes": 13575.142700457824, "estimated_final_votes": 13575.142700457824, "turnout_disagreement_votes": 0.0, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 49.479015620196144, "Haley Stevens": 46.68774275125065, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.8332416285532016 }, "remaining_sources": [ { "model": "v3", "remaining_votes": 13575.142700457824, "weight": 0.1342208488636769 }, { "model": "histgeo", "remaining_votes": 13575.142700457824, "weight": 0.05994207394479305 }, { "model": "latent", "remaining_votes": 13575.142700457824, "weight": 0.07672787409296966 }, { "model": "batchbias", "remaining_votes": 13575.142700457824, "weight": 0.045123489075924846 } ], "share_sources": [ { "model": "v0", "weight": 0.03630604611298715, "source": "statewide raw" }, { "model": "v3", "weight": 0.15004242351696637, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "market", "weight": 0.0786646379365536, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "histgeo", "weight": 0.06573339512824654, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "latent", "weight": 0.08483492578364633, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "batchbias", "weight": 0.04883898267529022, "source": "county remaining" } ], "candidate_benchmarks": { "Abdul El-Sayed": { "opponent": "Haley Stevens", "expected_remaining_share_points": 49.479015620196144, "expected_final_county_share_points": 49.479015620196144, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.24497318150285, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.24497318150285, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.24497318150285, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 48.24497318150285, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": -120.59512348483716, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": false }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.24497318150285, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.24497318150285, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.24497318150285, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 48.24497318150285, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.90126272144794, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.90126272144794, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.90126272144794, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.024044322225107804, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999973, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 49.55731441533497, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 49.55731441533497, "required_final_county_share_points": 49.55731441533497, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.003259695682198218, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.9999999999999996, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": 1.2340424386932938, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "ABOVE", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.011057719418591907, "criticality_score": 0.008960566567143943, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -150.76436254083634, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 22.584433569791113, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 22.584433569791113, "feasible": true, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 113.19692096639565, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Haley Stevens": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 46.68774275125065, "expected_final_county_share_points": 46.687742751250646, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 47.921785189943954, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 47.921785189943954, "required_final_county_share_points": 47.921785189943954, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 47.921785189943954, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 216.761881856284, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 47.921785189943954, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 47.921785189943954, "required_final_county_share_points": 47.921785189943954, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 47.921785189943954, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.578306193036404, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.578306193036404, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.57830619303641, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.07865391656842785, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.999999999999999, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 49.23505225568606, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 49.23505225568606, "required_final_county_share_points": 49.23505225568606, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.10597932088248406, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -1.2340424386933009, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.011057719418591907, "criticality_score": 0.00896056656714389, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 246.93112091228315, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 420.2799170229105, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 510.8924044195151, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Mallory McMorrow": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 3.8332416285532016, "expected_final_county_share_points": 3.8332416285532016, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 33.77528908679408, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 33.77528908679408, "required_final_county_share_points": 33.77528908679408, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 33.77528908679408, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 4098.719274488188, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 33.77528908679408, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 33.77528908679408, "required_final_county_share_points": 33.77528908679408, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 33.77528908679408, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 34.435790924195956, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 34.435790924195956, "required_final_county_share_points": 34.435790924195956, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.159018308558073, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999906, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 35.09603558266566, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 35.09603558266566, "required_final_county_share_points": 35.09603558266566, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.213613509684069, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.999999999999993, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -29.94204745824088, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "WELL BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.011057719418591907, "criticality_score": 0.0003693040509007849, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 204.0766197895857, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 377.42541590021307, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 468.03790329681766, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } } } }, { "cid": "26103", "county": "26103", "fips": null, "reporting": 0.0, "current_votes": 0, "current_candidate_votes": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 0, "Haley Stevens": 0, "Mallory McMorrow": 0 }, "current_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": null, "Haley Stevens": null, "Mallory McMorrow": null }, "estimated_remaining_votes": 13575.142700457824, "estimated_final_votes": 13575.142700457824, "turnout_disagreement_votes": 0.0, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 48.973903537573875, "Haley Stevens": 46.149745434179586, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.8763510282465425 }, "remaining_sources": [ { "model": "market", "remaining_votes": 13575.142700457824, "weight": 0.1780093144963334 } ], "share_sources": [ { "model": "v0", "weight": 0.03630604611298715, "source": "statewide raw" }, { "model": "v3", "weight": 0.06301781787712588, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "market", "weight": 0.18729675699179427, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "histgeo", "weight": 0.02760802595386354, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "latent", "weight": 0.03563066882913146, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "batchbias", "weight": 0.020512372723621893, "source": "statewide fallback" } ], "candidate_benchmarks": { "Abdul El-Sayed": { "opponent": "Haley Stevens", "expected_remaining_share_points": 48.973903537573875, "expected_final_county_share_points": 48.973903537573875, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 47.75327342108671, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 47.75327342108671, "required_final_county_share_points": 47.75327342108671, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 47.75327342108671, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": -121.10023556745905, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": false }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 47.75327342108671, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 47.75327342108671, "required_final_county_share_points": 47.75327342108671, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 47.75327342108671, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.402435191598066, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.402435191598066, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.402435191598066, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.024044322225107804, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999973, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 49.05134992915548, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 49.05134992915548, "required_final_county_share_points": 49.05134992915548, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.003259695682198218, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.9999999999999996, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": 1.2206301164871647, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "ABOVE", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.011057719418591907, "criticality_score": 0.009059025555108185, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -151.26947462345862, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 22.079321487168844, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 22.079321487168844, "feasible": true, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 112.69180888377338, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Haley Stevens": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 46.149745434179586, "expected_final_county_share_points": 46.149745434179586, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 47.37037555066674, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 47.37037555066674, "required_final_county_share_points": 47.37037555066674, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 47.37037555066674, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 216.22388453921252, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 47.37037555066674, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 47.37037555066674, "required_final_county_share_points": 47.37037555066674, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 47.37037555066674, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.01977805349677, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.01977805349677, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.01977805349677, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.07865391656842785, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.999999999999999, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.6694149671013, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.6694149671013, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.6694149671013, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.10597932088248406, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -1.2206301164871576, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.011057719418591907, "criticality_score": 0.009059025555108239, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 246.39312359521207, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 419.74191970583945, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 510.35440710244404, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Mallory McMorrow": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 4.8763510282465425, "expected_final_county_share_points": 4.8763510282465425, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 37.136501345834354, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 37.136501345834354, "required_final_county_share_points": 37.136501345834354, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 37.136501345834354, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 4099.76238388788, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 37.136501345834354, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 37.136501345834354, "required_final_county_share_points": 37.136501345834354, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 37.136501345834354, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 37.749746513256014, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 37.749746513256014, "required_final_county_share_points": 37.749746513256014, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.159018308558073, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999906, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 38.359105897231565, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 38.359105897231565, "required_final_county_share_points": 38.359105897231565, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.213613509684069, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.999999999999993, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -32.260150317587815, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "WELL BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.011057719418591907, "criticality_score": 0.0003427671387062131, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 205.11972918927904, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 378.4685252999064, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 469.081012696511, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } } } }, { "cid": "26115", "county": "26115", "fips": null, "reporting": 0.0, "current_votes": 0, "current_candidate_votes": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 0, "Haley Stevens": 0, "Mallory McMorrow": 0 }, "current_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": null, "Haley Stevens": null, "Mallory McMorrow": null }, "estimated_remaining_votes": 13427.800539038479, "estimated_final_votes": 13427.800539038479, "turnout_disagreement_votes": 0.0, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 48.024175588881675, "Haley Stevens": 48.025137223368944, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.9506871877493968 }, "remaining_sources": [ { "model": "market", "remaining_votes": 13427.800539038479, "weight": 0.1780093144963334 } ], "share_sources": [ { "model": "v0", "weight": 0.03630604611298715, "source": "statewide raw" }, { "model": "v3", "weight": 0.06301781787712588, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "market", "weight": 0.18729675699179427, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "histgeo", "weight": 0.02760802595386354, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "latent", "weight": 0.03563066882913146, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "batchbias", "weight": 0.020512372723621893, "source": "statewide fallback" } ], "candidate_benchmarks": { "Abdul El-Sayed": { "opponent": "Haley Stevens", "expected_remaining_share_points": 48.024175588881675, "expected_final_county_share_points": 48.02417558888167, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 46.791520325763315, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 46.791520325763315, "required_final_county_share_points": 46.791520325763315, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 46.791520325763315, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": -123.91617318946456, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": false }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 46.791520325763315, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 46.791520325763315, "required_final_county_share_points": 46.791520325763315, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 46.791520325763315, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 47.44684331587058, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 47.44684331587058, "required_final_county_share_points": 47.44684331587058, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.024044322225107804, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999973, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.102448403406065, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.102448403406065, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.102448403406065, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.003259695682198218, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.9999999999999996, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": 1.2326552631183603, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "ABOVE", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.010937700917464176, "criticality_score": 0.008873284562785282, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -154.4164568478887, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 20.83448148060418, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 20.83448148060418, "feasible": true, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 112.44125231966704, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Haley Stevens": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 48.025137223368944, "expected_final_county_share_points": 48.02513722336894, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 49.257792486487304, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 49.257792486487304, "required_final_county_share_points": 49.257792486487304, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 49.257792486487304, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 219.96548600171513, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 49.257792486487304, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 49.257792486487304, "required_final_county_share_points": 49.257792486487304, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 49.257792486487304, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 49.91282706624261, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 49.91282706624261, "required_final_county_share_points": 49.91282706624261, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.07865391656842785, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.999999999999999, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 50.56756692245203, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 50.56756692245203, "required_final_county_share_points": 50.56756692245203, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.10597932088248406, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -1.2326552631183603, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.010937700917464176, "criticality_score": 0.008873284562785282, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 250.46576966013933, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 425.71670798863215, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 517.3234788276951, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Mallory McMorrow": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 3.9506871877493968, "expected_final_county_share_points": 3.9506871877493968, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 33.64631598787565, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 33.64631598787565, "required_final_county_share_points": 33.64631598787565, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 33.64631598787565, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 4143.7695708961355, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 33.64631598787565, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 33.64631598787565, "required_final_county_share_points": 33.64631598787565, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 33.64631598787565, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 34.27901459750404, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 34.27901459750404, "required_final_county_share_points": 34.27901459750403, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.159018308558073, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999906, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 34.91053553134712, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 34.91053553134712, "required_final_county_share_points": 34.91053553134713, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.213613509684069, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.999999999999993, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -29.695628800126258, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "WELL BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.010937700917464176, "criticality_score": 0.00036832696795488203, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 206.39131962451978, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 381.64225795301263, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 473.24902879207553, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } } } }, { "cid": "fips:26115", "county": "Monroe", "fips": "26115", "reporting": 20.1, "current_votes": 3167, "current_candidate_votes": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 1406, "Haley Stevens": 1595, "Mallory McMorrow": 166 }, "current_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 44.39532680770445, "Haley Stevens": 50.36311967161351, "Mallory McMorrow": 5.241553520682034 }, "estimated_remaining_votes": 13427.800539038479, "estimated_final_votes": 16594.80053903848, "turnout_disagreement_votes": 0.0, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 46.876193610444986, "Haley Stevens": 48.59278495244829, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.531021437106708 }, "remaining_sources": [ { "model": "v3", "remaining_votes": 13427.800539038479, "weight": 0.1342208488636769 }, { "model": "histgeo", "remaining_votes": 13427.800539038479, "weight": 0.05994207394479305 }, { "model": "latent", "remaining_votes": 13427.800539038479, "weight": 0.07672787409296966 }, { "model": "batchbias", "remaining_votes": 13427.800539038479, "weight": 0.045123489075924846 } ], "share_sources": [ { "model": "v0", "weight": 0.03630604611298715, "source": "statewide raw" }, { "model": "v1", "weight": 0.14599140026529184, "source": "county live" }, { "model": "v3", "weight": 0.15004242351696637, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "market", "weight": 0.0786646379365536, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "histgeo", "weight": 0.06573339512824654, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "latent", "weight": 0.08483492578364633, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "batchbias", "weight": 0.04883898267529022, "source": "county remaining" } ], "candidate_benchmarks": { "Abdul El-Sayed": { "opponent": "Haley Stevens", "expected_remaining_share_points": 46.876193610444986, "expected_final_county_share_points": 46.402737774335584, "current_county_share_points": 44.39532680770445, "recent_batch_votes": 867, "recent_batch_share_points": 41.9838523644752, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 45.65194690701247, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 45.65194690701247, "required_final_county_share_points": 45.41212987244515, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 45.65194690701247, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": -125.06415516790135, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": false }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 45.65194690701247, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 45.65194690701247, "required_final_county_share_points": 45.41212987244515, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 45.65194690701247, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 46.302659033720836, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 46.302659033720836, "required_final_county_share_points": 45.9386582043295, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.024044322225107804, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999973, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 46.95397062225247, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 46.95397062225247, "required_final_county_share_points": 46.465671594999264, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.003259695682198218, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.9999999999999996, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": 1.224246703432513, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -3.6680945425372755, "status": "ABOVE", "recent_status": "WELL BELOW", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.010937700917464176, "criticality_score": 0.008934229421894554, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -155.5644388263254, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 19.68649950216749, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 19.68649950216749, "feasible": true, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 111.29327034123035, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Haley Stevens": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 48.59278495244829, "expected_final_county_share_points": 48.9306407791819, "current_county_share_points": 50.36311967161351, "recent_batch_votes": 867, "recent_batch_share_points": 53.28719723183391, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 49.817031655880804, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 49.817031655880804, "required_final_county_share_points": 49.92124868107234, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 49.817031655880804, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 220.53313373079462, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 49.817031655880804, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 49.817031655880804, "required_final_county_share_points": 49.92124868107234, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 49.817031655880804, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 50.46713870347407, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 50.46713870347407, "required_final_county_share_points": 50.447287408899754, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.07865391656842785, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.999999999999999, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 51.11663506564437, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 51.11663506564437, "required_final_county_share_points": 50.97283199628648, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.10597932088248406, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -1.224246703432513, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": 3.4701655759531036, "status": "BELOW", "recent_status": "WELL ABOVE", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.010937700917464176, "criticality_score": 0.008934229421894554, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 251.03341738921867, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 426.28435571771155, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 517.8911265567745, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Mallory McMorrow": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 4.531021437106708, "expected_final_county_share_points": 4.666621446482503, "current_county_share_points": 5.241553520682034, "recent_batch_votes": 867, "recent_batch_share_points": 4.728950403690888, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 35.12340384155791, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 35.12340384155791, "required_final_county_share_points": 29.42066461648632, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 35.12340384155791, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 4144.349905145495, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 35.12340384155791, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 35.12340384155791, "required_final_county_share_points": 29.42066461648632, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 35.12340384155791, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 35.71554206664462, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 35.71554206664462, "required_final_county_share_points": 29.899797460493698, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.159018308558073, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999906, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 36.30432711307782, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 36.30432711307782, "required_final_county_share_points": 30.376217056214337, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.213613509684069, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.999999999999993, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -30.5923824044512, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -30.39445343786702, "status": "WELL BELOW", "recent_status": "WELL BELOW", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.010937700917464176, "criticality_score": 0.00035753021039226866, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 206.9716538738771, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 382.2225922023699, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 473.8293630414328, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } } } }, { "cid": "fips:26005", "county": "Allegan", "fips": "26005", "reporting": 0.0, "current_votes": 0, "current_candidate_votes": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 0, "Haley Stevens": 0, "Mallory McMorrow": 0 }, "current_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": null, "Haley Stevens": null, "Mallory McMorrow": null }, "estimated_remaining_votes": 12233.214980259478, "estimated_final_votes": 12233.214980259478, "turnout_disagreement_votes": 0.0, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 49.342013689444705, "Haley Stevens": 46.811999583278116, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.84598672727718 }, "remaining_sources": [ { "model": "v3", "remaining_votes": 12233.214980259478, "weight": 0.1342208488636769 }, { "model": "histgeo", "remaining_votes": 12233.214980259478, "weight": 0.05994207394479305 }, { "model": "latent", "remaining_votes": 12233.214980259478, "weight": 0.07672787409296966 }, { "model": "batchbias", "remaining_votes": 12233.214980259478, "weight": 0.045123489075924846 } ], "share_sources": [ { "model": "v0", "weight": 0.03630604611298715, "source": "statewide raw" }, { "model": "v3", "weight": 0.15004242351696637, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "market", "weight": 0.0786646379365536, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "histgeo", "weight": 0.06573339512824654, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "latent", "weight": 0.08483492578364633, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "batchbias", "weight": 0.04883898267529022, "source": "county remaining" } ], "candidate_benchmarks": { "Abdul El-Sayed": { "opponent": "Haley Stevens", "expected_remaining_share_points": 49.342013689444705, "expected_final_county_share_points": 49.342013689444705, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.108035384213146, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.108035384213146, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.108035384213146, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 48.108035384213146, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": -139.3884804393663, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": false }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.108035384213146, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.108035384213146, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.108035384213146, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 48.108035384213146, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.764269404507615, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.764269404507615, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.764269404507615, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.024044322225107804, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999973, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 49.42031421821407, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 49.42031421821407, "required_final_county_share_points": 49.42031421821407, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.003259695682198218, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.9999999999999996, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": 1.2339783052315596, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "ABOVE", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.009964643600723444, "criticality_score": 0.008075217820667883, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -172.86714700496643, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 19.497219022419582, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 19.497219022419582, "feasible": true, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 120.04948176261476, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Haley Stevens": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 46.811999583278116, "expected_final_county_share_points": 46.81199958327811, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.04597788850967, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.04597788850967, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.04597788850967, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 48.04597788850967, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 235.54249371208914, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.04597788850967, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.04597788850967, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.04597788850967, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 48.04597788850967, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.702394686253356, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.702394686253356, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.702394686253356, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.07865391656842785, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.999999999999999, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 49.35898781351872, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 49.35898781351872, "required_final_county_share_points": 49.35898781351872, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.10597932088248406, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -1.2339783052315525, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.009964643600723444, "criticality_score": 0.00807521782066793, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 269.02116027768926, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 461.38552630507525, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 561.9377890452704, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Mallory McMorrow": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 3.84598672727718, "expected_final_county_share_points": 3.84598672727718, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 33.77173500057215, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 33.77173500057215, "required_final_county_share_points": 33.77173500057215, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 33.77173500057215, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 4547.922284567509, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 33.77173500057215, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 33.77173500057215, "required_final_county_share_points": 33.77173500057215, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 33.77173500057215, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 34.42957081742002, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 34.42957081742002, "required_final_county_share_points": 34.42957081742003, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.159018308558073, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999906, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 35.08705134447809, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 35.08705134447809, "required_final_county_share_points": 35.08705134447809, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.213613509684069, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.999999999999993, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -29.92574827329497, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "WELL BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.009964643600723444, "criticality_score": 0.00033297892870453824, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 226.05514742168833, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 418.4195134490743, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 518.9717761892695, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } } } }, { "cid": "26005", "county": "26005", "fips": null, "reporting": 0.0, "current_votes": 0, "current_candidate_votes": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 0, "Haley Stevens": 0, "Mallory McMorrow": 0 }, "current_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": null, "Haley Stevens": null, "Mallory McMorrow": null }, "estimated_remaining_votes": 12233.214980259478, "estimated_final_votes": 12233.214980259478, "turnout_disagreement_votes": 0.0, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 51.520003701578986, "Haley Stevens": 44.646485246666586, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.8335110517544244 }, "remaining_sources": [ { "model": "market", "remaining_votes": 12233.214980259478, "weight": 0.1780093144963334 } ], "share_sources": [ { "model": "v0", "weight": 0.03630604611298715, "source": "statewide raw" }, { "model": "v3", "weight": 0.06301781787712588, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "market", "weight": 0.18729675699179427, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "histgeo", "weight": 0.02760802595386354, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "latent", "weight": 0.03563066882913146, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "batchbias", "weight": 0.020512372723621893, "source": "statewide fallback" } ], "candidate_benchmarks": { "Abdul El-Sayed": { "opponent": "Haley Stevens", "expected_remaining_share_points": 51.520003701578986, "expected_final_county_share_points": 51.52000370157898, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 50.28989257017238, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 50.28989257017238, "required_final_county_share_points": 50.28989257017238, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 50.28989257017238, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": -137.21049042723163, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": false }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 50.28989257017238, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 50.28989257017238, "required_final_county_share_points": 50.28989257017238, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 50.28989257017238, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 50.944425492966886, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 50.944425492966886, "required_final_county_share_points": 50.944425492966886, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.024044322225107804, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999973, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 51.59796256226642, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 51.59796256226642, "required_final_county_share_points": 51.59796256226642, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.003259695682198218, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.9999999999999996, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": 1.230111131406609, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "ABOVE", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.009964643600723444, "criticality_score": 0.008100604365175575, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -170.68915699283215, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 21.675209034553863, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 21.675209034553863, "feasible": true, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 122.22747177474905, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Haley Stevens": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 44.646485246666586, "expected_final_county_share_points": 44.646485246666586, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 45.876596378073195, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 45.876596378073195, "required_final_county_share_points": 45.876596378073195, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 45.876596378073195, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 233.37697937547722, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 45.876596378073195, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 45.876596378073195, "required_final_county_share_points": 45.876596378073195, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 45.876596378073195, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 46.53212092613422, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 46.53212092613422, "required_final_county_share_points": 46.53212092613422, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.07865391656842785, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.999999999999999, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 47.18863282712712, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 47.18863282712712, "required_final_county_share_points": 47.18863282712712, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.10597932088248406, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -1.230111131406609, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.009964643600723444, "criticality_score": 0.008100604365175575, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 266.85564594107774, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 459.2200119684637, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 559.7722747086589, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Mallory McMorrow": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 3.8335110517544244, "expected_final_county_share_points": 3.833511051754424, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 34.54719716022258, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 34.54719716022258, "required_final_county_share_points": 34.54719716022258, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 34.54719716022258, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 4547.909808891987, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 34.54719716022258, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 34.54719716022258, "required_final_county_share_points": 34.54719716022258, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 34.54719716022258, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 35.24050484242717, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 35.24050484242717, "required_final_county_share_points": 35.24050484242718, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.159018308558073, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999906, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 35.93423972785248, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 35.93423972785248, "required_final_county_share_points": 35.93423972785248, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.213613509684069, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.999999999999993, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -30.713686108468156, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "WELL BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.009964643600723444, "criticality_score": 0.00032443659043503945, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 226.04267174616555, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 418.40703777355156, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 518.9593005137467, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } } } }, { "cid": "fips:26037", "county": "Clinton", "fips": "26037", "reporting": 0.11, "current_votes": 11, "current_candidate_votes": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 8, "Haley Stevens": 3, "Mallory McMorrow": 0 }, "current_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 72.72727272727273, "Haley Stevens": 27.27272727272727, "Mallory McMorrow": 0.0 }, "estimated_remaining_votes": 12041.099798507375, "estimated_final_votes": 12052.099798507375, "turnout_disagreement_votes": 0.0, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 49.84449106487659, "Haley Stevens": 46.39578659448361, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.7597223406398017 }, "remaining_sources": [ { "model": "v3", "remaining_votes": 12041.099798507375, "weight": 0.1342208488636769 }, { "model": "histgeo", "remaining_votes": 12041.099798507375, "weight": 0.05994207394479305 }, { "model": "latent", "remaining_votes": 12041.099798507375, "weight": 0.07672787409296966 }, { "model": "batchbias", "remaining_votes": 12041.099798507375, "weight": 0.045123489075924846 } ], "share_sources": [ { "model": "v0", "weight": 0.03630604611298715, "source": "statewide raw" }, { "model": "v3", "weight": 0.15004242351696637, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "market", "weight": 0.0786646379365536, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "histgeo", "weight": 0.06573339512824654, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "latent", "weight": 0.08483492578364633, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "batchbias", "weight": 0.04883898267529022, "source": "county remaining" } ], "candidate_benchmarks": { "Abdul El-Sayed": { "opponent": "Haley Stevens", "expected_remaining_share_points": 49.84449106487659, "expected_final_county_share_points": 49.86537627181104, "current_county_share_points": 72.72727272727273, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.609835129356796, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.609835129356796, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.6318472117335, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 48.609835129356796, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": -141.897189233674, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": false }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.609835129356796, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.609835129356796, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.6318472117335, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 48.609835129356796, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 49.26650470995037, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 49.26650470995037, "required_final_county_share_points": 49.28791744735755, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.024044322225107804, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999973, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 49.92281421558731, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 49.92281421558731, "required_final_county_share_points": 49.943627936666815, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.003259695682198218, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.9999999999999996, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": 1.2346559355197968, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "ABOVE", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.009808154949168061, "criticality_score": 0.007944039037109375, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -175.91000635193933, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 19.523524100656452, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 19.523524100656452, "feasible": true, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 121.68009347024379, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Haley Stevens": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 46.39578659448361, "expected_final_county_share_points": 46.37833290126367, "current_county_share_points": 27.27272727272727, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 47.630442530003414, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 47.630442530003414, "required_final_county_share_points": 47.6118619613412, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 47.630442530003414, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 238.13746689303423, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 47.630442530003414, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 47.630442530003414, "required_final_county_share_points": 47.6118619613412, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 47.630442530003414, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.287465964091794, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.287465964091794, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.26828572749653, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.07865391656842785, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.999999999999999, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.94483700488815, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.94483700488815, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.925056783097816, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.10597932088248406, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -1.234655935519804, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.009808154949168061, "criticality_score": 0.00794403903710933, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 272.1502840112995, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 467.58381446389524, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 569.7403838334827, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Mallory McMorrow": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 3.7597223406398017, "expected_final_county_share_points": 3.756290826925307, "current_county_share_points": 0.0, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 33.62648500349666, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 33.62648500349666, "required_final_county_share_points": 33.59579397527565, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 33.62648500349666, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 4620.336544091753, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 33.62648500349666, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 33.62648500349666, "required_final_county_share_points": 33.59579397527565, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 33.62648500349666, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 34.295472243771066, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 34.295472243771066, "required_final_county_share_points": 34.26417062820295, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.159018308558073, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999906, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 34.9646436066978, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 34.9646436066978, "required_final_county_share_points": 34.93273123573309, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.213613509684069, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.999999999999993, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -29.86676266285686, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "WELL BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.009808154949168061, "criticality_score": 0.00032839698965317577, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 229.51421975745572, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 424.9477502100515, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 527.1043195796389, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } } } }, { "cid": "26037", "county": "26037", "fips": null, "reporting": 0.0, "current_votes": 0, "current_candidate_votes": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 0, "Haley Stevens": 0, "Mallory McMorrow": 0 }, "current_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": null, "Haley Stevens": null, "Mallory McMorrow": null }, "estimated_remaining_votes": 12041.099798507375, "estimated_final_votes": 12041.099798507375, "turnout_disagreement_votes": 0.0, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 51.874843127463365, "Haley Stevens": 44.16633808795746, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.9588187845791745 }, "remaining_sources": [ { "model": "market", "remaining_votes": 12041.099798507375, "weight": 0.1780093144963334 } ], "share_sources": [ { "model": "v0", "weight": 0.03630604611298715, "source": "statewide raw" }, { "model": "v3", "weight": 0.06301781787712588, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "market", "weight": 0.18729675699179427, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "histgeo", "weight": 0.02760802595386354, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "latent", "weight": 0.03563066882913146, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "batchbias", "weight": 0.020512372723621893, "source": "statewide fallback" } ], "candidate_benchmarks": { "Abdul El-Sayed": { "opponent": "Haley Stevens", "expected_remaining_share_points": 51.874843127463365, "expected_final_county_share_points": 51.874843127463365, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 50.64770404426277, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 50.64770404426277, "required_final_county_share_points": 50.64770404426277, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 50.64770404426277, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": -139.86683717108713, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": false }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 50.64770404426277, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 50.64770404426277, "required_final_county_share_points": 50.64770404426277, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 50.64770404426277, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 51.3007246051035, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 51.3007246051035, "required_final_county_share_points": 51.3007246051035, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.024044322225107804, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999973, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 51.952594946812816, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 51.952594946812816, "required_final_county_share_points": 51.952594946812816, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.003259695682198218, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.9999999999999996, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": 1.2271390832005977, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "ABOVE", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.009808154949168061, "criticality_score": 0.007992700325041105, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -173.87965428935257, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 21.553876163243224, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 21.553876163243224, "feasible": true, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 123.71044553283056, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Haley Stevens": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 44.16633808795746, "expected_final_county_share_points": 44.16633808795746, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 45.39347717115807, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 45.39347717115807, "required_final_county_share_points": 45.39347717115807, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 45.39347717115807, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 235.90801838650793, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 45.39347717115807, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 45.39347717115807, "required_final_county_share_points": 45.39347717115807, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 45.39347717115807, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 46.04764450466132, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 46.04764450466132, "required_final_county_share_points": 46.04764450466132, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.07865391656842785, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.999999999999999, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 46.70295511789028, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 46.70295511789028, "required_final_county_share_points": 46.70295511789028, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.10597932088248406, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -1.2271390832006048, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.009808154949168061, "criticality_score": 0.007992700325041058, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 269.9208355047734, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 465.3543659573691, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 567.5109353269565, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Mallory McMorrow": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 3.9588187845791745, "expected_final_county_share_points": 3.9588187845791745, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 35.177207658742205, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 35.177207658742205, "required_final_county_share_points": 35.177207658742205, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 35.177207658742205, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 4620.535640535693, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 35.177207658742205, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 35.177207658742205, "required_final_county_share_points": 35.177207658742205, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 35.177207658742205, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 35.87182725717031, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 35.87182725717031, "required_final_county_share_points": 35.87182725717031, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.159018308558073, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999906, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 36.56643589803949, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 36.56643589803949, "required_final_county_share_points": 36.56643589803949, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.213613509684069, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.999999999999993, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -31.21838887416303, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "WELL BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.009808154949168061, "criticality_score": 0.0003141787677994328, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 229.7133162013951, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 425.14684665399085, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 527.3034160235783, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } } } }, { "cid": "fips:26025", "county": "Calhoun", "fips": "26025", "reporting": 7.2700000000000005, "current_votes": 918, "current_candidate_votes": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 411, "Haley Stevens": 458, "Mallory McMorrow": 49 }, "current_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 44.771241830065364, "Haley Stevens": 49.89106753812636, "Mallory McMorrow": 5.337690631808279 }, "estimated_remaining_votes": 11811.954356962822, "estimated_final_votes": 12729.954356962822, "turnout_disagreement_votes": 0.0, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 47.5320731168922, "Haley Stevens": 48.03569416485915, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.432232718248659 }, "remaining_sources": [ { "model": "v3", "remaining_votes": 11811.954356962822, "weight": 0.1342208488636769 }, { "model": "histgeo", "remaining_votes": 11811.954356962822, "weight": 0.05994207394479305 }, { "model": "latent", "remaining_votes": 11811.954356962822, "weight": 0.07672787409296966 }, { "model": "batchbias", "remaining_votes": 11811.954356962822, "weight": 0.045123489075924846 } ], "share_sources": [ { "model": "v0", "weight": 0.03630604611298715, "source": "statewide raw" }, { "model": "v1", "weight": 0.14599140026529184, "source": "county live" }, { "model": "v3", "weight": 0.15004242351696637, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "market", "weight": 0.0786646379365536, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "histgeo", "weight": 0.06573339512824654, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "latent", "weight": 0.08483492578364633, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "batchbias", "weight": 0.04883898267529022, "source": "county remaining" } ], "candidate_benchmarks": { "Abdul El-Sayed": { "opponent": "Haley Stevens", "expected_remaining_share_points": 47.5320731168922, "expected_final_county_share_points": 47.332980248980945, "current_county_share_points": 44.771241830065364, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 46.30579741135068, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 46.30579741135068, "required_final_county_share_points": 46.19513542591713, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 46.30579741135068, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": -147.92929070452968, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": false }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 46.30579741135068, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 46.30579741135068, "required_final_county_share_points": 46.19513542591713, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 46.30579741135068, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 46.95768758428099, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 46.95768758428099, "required_final_county_share_points": 46.800015596928404, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.024044322225107804, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999973, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 47.6099520136363, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 47.6099520136363, "required_final_county_share_points": 47.40524303546996, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.003259695682198218, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.9999999999999996, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": 1.2262757055415179, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "ABOVE", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.009621503062365902, "criticality_score": 0.007846117328172208, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -182.6019378357808, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 16.62289600953191, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 16.62289600953191, "feasible": true, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 120.76124684283374, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Haley Stevens": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 48.03569416485915, "expected_final_county_share_points": 48.16949140473125, "current_county_share_points": 49.89106753812636, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 49.26196987040067, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 49.26196987040067, "required_final_county_share_points": 49.307336227795055, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 49.26196987040067, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 243.49705798628105, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 49.26196987040067, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 49.26196987040067, "required_final_county_share_points": 49.307336227795055, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 49.26196987040067, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 49.91347964938004, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 49.91347964938004, "required_final_county_share_points": 49.91186343634785, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.07865391656842785, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.999999999999999, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 50.564602900104774, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 50.564602900104774, "required_final_county_share_points": 50.516031990503826, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.10597932088248406, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -1.2262757055415179, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.009621503062365902, "criticality_score": 0.007846117328172208, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 278.16970511753215, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 477.3945389628448, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 581.5328897961467, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Mallory McMorrow": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 4.432232718248659, "expected_final_county_share_points": 4.49752834628782, "current_county_share_points": 5.337690631808279, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 35.09721729517752, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 35.09721729517752, "required_final_county_share_points": 32.951157324268806, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 35.09721729517752, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 4710.568114915691, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 35.09721729517752, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 35.09721729517752, "required_final_county_share_points": 32.951157324268806, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 35.09721729517752, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 35.70379045516581, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 35.70379045516581, "required_final_county_share_points": 33.513988445184914, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.159018308558073, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999906, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 36.30743029704905, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 36.30743029704905, "required_final_county_share_points": 34.07409777947088, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.213613509684069, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.999999999999993, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -30.664984576928862, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "WELL BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.009621503062365902, "criticality_score": 0.0003137618751520503, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 234.56624367092166, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 433.79107751623434, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 537.9294283495362, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } } } }, { "cid": "26025", "county": "26025", "fips": null, "reporting": 0.0, "current_votes": 0, "current_candidate_votes": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 0, "Haley Stevens": 0, "Mallory McMorrow": 0 }, "current_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": null, "Haley Stevens": null, "Mallory McMorrow": null }, "estimated_remaining_votes": 11811.954356962822, "estimated_final_votes": 11811.954356962822, "turnout_disagreement_votes": 0.0, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 50.29492018742767, "Haley Stevens": 45.67831422390735, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.026765588664979 }, "remaining_sources": [ { "model": "market", "remaining_votes": 11811.954356962822, "weight": 0.1780093144963334 } ], "share_sources": [ { "model": "v0", "weight": 0.03630604611298715, "source": "statewide raw" }, { "model": "v3", "weight": 0.06301781787712588, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "market", "weight": 0.18729675699179427, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "histgeo", "weight": 0.02760802595386354, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "latent", "weight": 0.03563066882913146, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "batchbias", "weight": 0.020512372723621893, "source": "statewide fallback" } ], "candidate_benchmarks": { "Abdul El-Sayed": { "opponent": "Haley Stevens", "expected_remaining_share_points": 50.29492018742767, "expected_final_county_share_points": 50.29492018742767, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 49.064571880940164, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 49.064571880940164, "required_final_county_share_points": 49.06457188094016, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 49.064571880940164, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": -145.16644363399433, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": false }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 49.064571880940164, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 49.064571880940164, "required_final_county_share_points": 49.06457188094016, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 49.064571880940164, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 49.719046956777056, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 49.719046956777056, "required_final_county_share_points": 49.71904695677706, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.024044322225107804, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999973, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 50.37294391319712, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 50.37294391319712, "required_final_county_share_points": 50.37294391319712, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.003259695682198218, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.9999999999999996, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": 1.2303483064875067, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "ABOVE", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.009621503062365902, "criticality_score": 0.007820145735669042, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -179.83909076524534, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 19.385743080067382, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 19.385743080067382, "feasible": true, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 123.52409391336923, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Haley Stevens": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 45.67831422390735, "expected_final_county_share_points": 45.67831422390735, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 46.908662530394864, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 46.908662530394864, "required_final_county_share_points": 46.90866253039486, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 46.908662530394864, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 241.13967804532933, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 46.908662530394864, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 46.908662530394864, "required_final_county_share_points": 46.90866253039486, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 46.908662530394864, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 47.56370999331633, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 47.56370999331633, "required_final_county_share_points": 47.56370999331634, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.07865391656842785, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.999999999999999, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.21932407802915, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.21932407802915, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.21932407802916, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.10597932088248406, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -1.2303483064875138, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.009621503062365902, "criticality_score": 0.007820145735668997, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 275.8123251765804, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 475.03715902189305, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 579.175509855195, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Mallory McMorrow": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 4.026765588664979, "expected_final_county_share_points": 4.026765588664978, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 34.82783918217315, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 34.82783918217315, "required_final_county_share_points": 34.82783918217316, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 34.82783918217315, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 4710.162647786108, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 34.82783918217315, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 34.82783918217315, "required_final_county_share_points": 34.82783918217316, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 34.82783918217315, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 35.494522382720554, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 35.494522382720554, "required_final_county_share_points": 35.494522382720554, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.159018308558073, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999906, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 36.16040573222969, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 36.16040573222969, "required_final_county_share_points": 36.16040573222969, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.213613509684069, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.999999999999993, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -30.80107359350817, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "WELL BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.009621503062365902, "criticality_score": 0.0003123755746096393, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 234.16077654133798, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 433.3856103866507, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 537.5239612199525, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } } } }, { "cid": "fips:26055", "county": "Grand Traverse", "fips": "26055", "reporting": 6.860000000000001, "current_votes": 1147, "current_candidate_votes": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 716, "Haley Stevens": 400, "Mallory McMorrow": 31 }, "current_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 62.42371403661726, "Haley Stevens": 34.873583260680036, "Mallory McMorrow": 2.7027027027027026 }, "estimated_remaining_votes": 11235.868104134455, "estimated_final_votes": 12382.868104134455, "turnout_disagreement_votes": 0.0, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 54.43571239177316, "Haley Stevens": 42.16109731196045, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.4031902962664082 }, "remaining_sources": [ { "model": "v3", "remaining_votes": 11235.868104134455, "weight": 0.1342208488636769 }, { "model": "histgeo", "remaining_votes": 11235.868104134455, "weight": 0.05994207394479305 }, { "model": "latent", "remaining_votes": 11235.868104134455, "weight": 0.07672787409296966 }, { "model": "batchbias", "remaining_votes": 11235.868104134455, "weight": 0.045123489075924846 } ], "share_sources": [ { "model": "v0", "weight": 0.03630604611298715, "source": "statewide raw" }, { "model": "v1", "weight": 0.14599140026529184, "source": "county live" }, { "model": "v3", "weight": 0.15004242351696637, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "market", "weight": 0.0786646379365536, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "histgeo", "weight": 0.06573339512824654, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "latent", "weight": 0.08483492578364633, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "batchbias", "weight": 0.04883898267529022, "source": "county remaining" } ], "candidate_benchmarks": { "Abdul El-Sayed": { "opponent": "Haley Stevens", "expected_remaining_share_points": 54.43571239177316, "expected_final_county_share_points": 55.175624810252124, "current_county_share_points": 62.42371403661726, "recent_batch_votes": 831, "recent_batch_share_points": 57.52105896510229, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 53.212056538779926, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 53.212056538779926, "required_final_county_share_points": 54.065313721297414, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 53.212056538779926, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": -151.0473607994102, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": false }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 53.212056538779926, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 53.212056538779926, "required_final_county_share_points": 54.065313721297414, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 53.212056538779926, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 53.863590480059784, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 53.863590480059784, "required_final_county_share_points": 54.65649739280427, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.024044322225107804, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999973, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 54.51314426580795, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 54.51314426580795, "required_final_county_share_points": 55.24588432657698, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.003259695682198218, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.9999999999999996, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": 1.2236558529932324, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": 4.309002426322365, "status": "ABOVE", "recent_status": "WELL ABOVE", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.00915224831600738, "criticality_score": 0.007479430015898431, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -187.4977464352749, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 21.94175769066065, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 21.94175769066065, "feasible": true, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 131.41949767941256, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Haley Stevens": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 42.16109731196045, "expected_final_county_share_points": 41.48606964094554, "current_county_share_points": 34.873583260680036, "recent_batch_votes": 831, "recent_batch_share_points": 39.95186522262335, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 43.38475316495368, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 43.38475316495368, "required_final_county_share_points": 42.596380729900254, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 43.38475316495368, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 247.6441705031438, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 43.38475316495368, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 43.38475316495368, "required_final_county_share_points": 42.596380729900254, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 43.38475316495368, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 44.038269839106256, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 44.038269839106256, "required_final_county_share_points": 43.18936347774841, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.07865391656842785, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.999999999999999, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 44.69377178815842, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 44.69377178815842, "required_final_county_share_points": 43.78414760850195, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.10597932088248406, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -1.2236558529932324, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -3.432887942330332, "status": "BELOW", "recent_status": "WELL BELOW", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.00915224831600738, "criticality_score": 0.007479430015898431, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 284.09455613900855, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 493.53406026494406, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 603.011800253696, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Mallory McMorrow": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 3.4031902962664082, "expected_final_county_share_points": 3.3383055488023445, "current_county_share_points": 2.7027027027027026, "recent_batch_votes": 831, "recent_batch_share_points": 2.527075812274368, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 33.689853437440846, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 33.689853437440846, "required_final_county_share_points": 30.819576406800614, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 33.689853437440846, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 4950.832416323424, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 33.689853437440846, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 33.689853437440846, "required_final_county_share_points": 30.819576406800614, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 33.689853437440846, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 34.44253091201927, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 34.44253091201927, "required_final_county_share_points": 31.5025348909092, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.159018308558073, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999906, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 35.19903705591981, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 35.19903705591981, "required_final_county_share_points": 32.188967402452775, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.213613509684069, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.999999999999993, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -30.286663141174436, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -31.162777625166477, "status": "WELL BELOW", "recent_status": "WELL BELOW", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.00915224831600738, "criticality_score": 0.0003021874107869276, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 245.3366491233145, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 454.77615324925, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 564.253893238002, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } } } }, { "cid": "26055", "county": "26055", "fips": null, "reporting": 0.0, "current_votes": 0, "current_candidate_votes": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 0, "Haley Stevens": 0, "Mallory McMorrow": 0 }, "current_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": null, "Haley Stevens": null, "Mallory McMorrow": null }, "estimated_remaining_votes": 11235.868104134455, "estimated_final_votes": 11235.868104134455, "turnout_disagreement_votes": 0.0, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 50.27001427473839, "Haley Stevens": 45.81976287256555, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.910222852696068 }, "remaining_sources": [ { "model": "market", "remaining_votes": 11235.868104134455, "weight": 0.1780093144963334 } ], "share_sources": [ { "model": "v0", "weight": 0.03630604611298715, "source": "statewide raw" }, { "model": "v3", "weight": 0.06301781787712588, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "market", "weight": 0.18729675699179427, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "histgeo", "weight": 0.02760802595386354, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "latent", "weight": 0.03563066882913146, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "batchbias", "weight": 0.020512372723621893, "source": "statewide fallback" } ], "candidate_benchmarks": { "Abdul El-Sayed": { "opponent": "Haley Stevens", "expected_remaining_share_points": 50.27001427473839, "expected_final_county_share_points": 50.27001427473838, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 49.03801996232512, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 49.03801996232512, "required_final_county_share_points": 49.03801996232512, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 49.03801996232512, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": -155.21305891644462, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": false }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 49.03801996232512, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 49.03801996232512, "required_final_county_share_points": 49.03801996232512, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 49.03801996232512, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 49.69335651254969, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 49.69335651254969, "required_final_county_share_points": 49.69335651254969, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.024044322225107804, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999973, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 50.34814620456779, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 50.34814620456779, "required_final_county_share_points": 50.34814620456779, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.003259695682198218, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.9999999999999996, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": 1.2319943124132635, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "ABOVE", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.00915224831600738, "criticality_score": 0.007428807279215202, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -191.66344455230967, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 17.77605957362588, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 17.77605957362588, "feasible": true, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 127.25379956237778, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Haley Stevens": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 45.81976287256555, "expected_final_county_share_points": 45.819762872565555, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 47.051757184978804, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 47.051757184978804, "required_final_county_share_points": 47.051757184978804, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 47.051757184978804, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 251.30283606374854, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 47.051757184978804, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 47.051757184978804, "required_final_county_share_points": 47.051757184978804, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 47.051757184978804, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 47.70763477133866, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 47.70763477133866, "required_final_county_share_points": 47.70763477133866, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.07865391656842785, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.999999999999999, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.36404753982466, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.36404753982466, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.36404753982466, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.10597932088248406, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -1.2319943124132564, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.00915224831600738, "criticality_score": 0.0074288072792152455, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 287.7532216996136, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 497.19272582554913, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 606.6704658143011, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Mallory McMorrow": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 3.910222852696068, "expected_final_county_share_points": 3.910222852696068, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 34.37576966977189, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 34.37576966977189, "required_final_county_share_points": 34.37576966977189, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 34.37576966977189, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 4951.339448879853, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 34.37576966977189, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 34.37576966977189, "required_final_county_share_points": 34.37576966977189, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 34.37576966977189, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 35.04626833729776, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 35.04626833729776, "required_final_county_share_points": 35.04626833729776, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.159018308558073, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999906, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 35.71643916962442, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 35.71643916962442, "required_final_county_share_points": 35.71643916962442, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.213613509684069, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.999999999999993, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -30.465546817075822, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "WELL BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.00915224831600738, "criticality_score": 0.00030041306564954155, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 245.84368167974415, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 455.28318580567964, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 564.7609257944316, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } } } }, { "cid": "fips:26147", "county": "St. Clair", "fips": "26147", "reporting": 34.81, "current_votes": 6209, "current_candidate_votes": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 2684, "Haley Stevens": 3260, "Mallory McMorrow": 265 }, "current_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 43.2275728780802, "Haley Stevens": 52.50442905459817, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.2679980673216305 }, "estimated_remaining_votes": 10755.18585599924, "estimated_final_votes": 16964.18585599924, "turnout_disagreement_votes": 0.0, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 45.83281190141864, "Haley Stevens": 50.08974230375978, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.077445794821586 }, "remaining_sources": [ { "model": "v3", "remaining_votes": 10755.18585599924, "weight": 0.1342208488636769 }, { "model": "histgeo", "remaining_votes": 10755.18585599924, "weight": 0.05994207394479305 }, { "model": "latent", "remaining_votes": 10755.18585599924, "weight": 0.07672787409296966 }, { "model": "batchbias", "remaining_votes": 10755.18585599924, "weight": 0.045123489075924846 } ], "share_sources": [ { "model": "v0", "weight": 0.03630604611298715, "source": "statewide raw" }, { "model": "v1", "weight": 0.14599140026529184, "source": "county live" }, { "model": "v3", "weight": 0.15004242351696637, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "market", "weight": 0.0786646379365536, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "histgeo", "weight": 0.06573339512824654, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "latent", "weight": 0.08483492578364633, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "batchbias", "weight": 0.04883898267529022, "source": "county remaining" } ], "candidate_benchmarks": { "Abdul El-Sayed": { "opponent": "Haley Stevens", "expected_remaining_share_points": 45.83281190141864, "expected_final_county_share_points": 44.879277836582396, "current_county_share_points": 43.2275728780802, "recent_batch_votes": 522, "recent_batch_share_points": 31.226053639846747, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 44.605605457129485, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 44.605605457129485, "required_final_county_share_points": 44.1012367620476, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 44.605605457129485, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": -168.83393016334102, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": false }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 44.605605457129485, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 44.605605457129485, "required_final_county_share_points": 44.1012367620476, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 44.605605457129485, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 45.25768385535758, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 45.25768385535758, "required_final_county_share_points": 44.514650316058216, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.024044322225107804, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999973, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 45.91083310615452, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 45.91083310615452, "required_final_county_share_points": 44.92874278378154, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.003259695682198218, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.9999999999999996, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": 1.227206444289152, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -13.379551817282739, "status": "ABOVE", "recent_status": "WELL BELOW", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.00876070551261586, "criticality_score": 0.007138738191429901, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -206.91339534719629, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 11.88660268739855, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 11.88660268739855, "feasible": true, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 126.25723870632014, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Haley Stevens": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 50.08974230375978, "expected_final_county_share_points": 50.973533023999586, "current_county_share_points": 52.50442905459817, "recent_batch_votes": 522, "recent_batch_share_points": 63.02681992337165, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 51.31694874804893, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 51.31694874804893, "required_final_county_share_points": 51.75157409853439, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 51.31694874804893, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 264.7564843685194, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 51.31694874804893, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 51.31694874804893, "required_final_county_share_points": 51.75157409853439, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 51.31694874804893, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 51.96795247398964, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 51.96795247398964, "required_final_county_share_points": 52.16430631715509, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.07865391656842785, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.999999999999999, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 52.617877730333426, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 52.617877730333426, "required_final_county_share_points": 52.57635479291576, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.10597932088248406, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -1.227206444289152, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": 11.709871175322718, "status": "BELOW", "recent_status": "WELL ABOVE", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.00876070551261586, "criticality_score": 0.007138738191429901, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 302.8359495523747, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 521.6359475869695, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 636.0065836058911, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Mallory McMorrow": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 4.077445794821586, "expected_final_county_share_points": 4.147189139418012, "current_county_share_points": 4.2679980673216305, "recent_batch_votes": 522, "recent_batch_share_points": 5.747126436781609, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 33.19113079950426, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 33.19113079950426, "required_final_county_share_points": 22.605080124363035, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 33.19113079950426, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 5172.622460493366, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 33.19113079950426, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 33.19113079950426, "required_final_county_share_points": 22.605080124363035, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 33.19113079950426, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 33.78345810582155, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 33.78345810582155, "required_final_county_share_points": 22.98061186641672, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.159018308558073, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999906, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 34.373572566360906, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 34.373572566360906, "required_final_county_share_points": 23.35474067833191, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.213613509684069, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.999999999999993, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -29.113685004682672, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -27.444004362722648, "status": "WELL BELOW", "recent_status": "WELL BELOW", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.00876070551261586, "criticality_score": 0.00030091366006078515, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 256.82365304343654, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 475.6236510780313, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 589.994287096953, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } } } }, { "cid": "26147", "county": "26147", "fips": null, "reporting": 0.0, "current_votes": 0, "current_candidate_votes": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 0, "Haley Stevens": 0, "Mallory McMorrow": 0 }, "current_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": null, "Haley Stevens": null, "Mallory McMorrow": null }, "estimated_remaining_votes": 10755.18585599924, "estimated_final_votes": 10755.18585599924, "turnout_disagreement_votes": 0.0, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 47.35787802698279, "Haley Stevens": 48.840422776193336, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.8016991968238676 }, "remaining_sources": [ { "model": "market", "remaining_votes": 10755.18585599924, "weight": 0.1780093144963334 } ], "share_sources": [ { "model": "v0", "weight": 0.03630604611298715, "source": "statewide raw" }, { "model": "v3", "weight": 0.06301781787712588, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "market", "weight": 0.18729675699179427, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "histgeo", "weight": 0.02760802595386354, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "latent", "weight": 0.03563066882913146, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "batchbias", "weight": 0.020512372723621893, "source": "statewide fallback" } ], "candidate_benchmarks": { "Abdul El-Sayed": { "opponent": "Haley Stevens", "expected_remaining_share_points": 47.35787802698279, "expected_final_county_share_points": 47.357878026982796, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 46.12409166333314, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 46.12409166333314, "required_final_county_share_points": 46.12409166333314, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 46.12409166333314, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": -167.30886403777703, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": false }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 46.12409166333314, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 46.12409166333314, "required_final_county_share_points": 46.12409166333314, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 46.12409166333314, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 46.77989456555659, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 46.77989456555659, "required_final_county_share_points": 46.779894565556596, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.024044322225107804, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999973, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 47.43625560333855, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 47.43625560333855, "required_final_county_share_points": 47.43625560333856, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.003259695682198218, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.9999999999999996, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": 1.2337863636496493, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "ABOVE", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.00876070551261586, "criticality_score": 0.007100666509800706, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -205.38832922163215, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 13.411668812962702, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 13.411668812962702, "feasible": true, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 127.78230483188429, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Haley Stevens": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 48.840422776193336, "expected_final_county_share_points": 48.84042277619333, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 50.07420913984299, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 50.07420913984299, "required_final_county_share_points": 50.07420913984299, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 50.07420913984299, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 263.5071648409531, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 50.07420913984299, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 50.07420913984299, "required_final_county_share_points": 50.07420913984299, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 50.07420913984299, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 50.72944812249888, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 50.72944812249888, "required_final_county_share_points": 50.72944812249888, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.07865391656842785, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.999999999999999, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 51.384117411156694, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 51.384117411156694, "required_final_county_share_points": 51.384117411156694, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.10597932088248406, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -1.2337863636496564, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.00876070551261586, "criticality_score": 0.007100666509800665, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 301.58663002480824, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 520.386628059403, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 634.7572640783247, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Mallory McMorrow": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 3.8016991968238676, "expected_final_county_share_points": 3.8016991968238676, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 32.83172907651274, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 32.83172907651274, "required_final_county_share_points": 32.83172907651274, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 32.83172907651274, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 5172.346713895367, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 32.83172907651274, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 32.83172907651274, "required_final_county_share_points": 32.83172907651274, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 32.83172907651274, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 33.45911217382962, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 33.45911217382962, "required_final_county_share_points": 33.45911217382962, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.159018308558073, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999906, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 34.08570176743383, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 34.08570176743383, "required_final_county_share_points": 34.08570176743383, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.213613509684069, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.999999999999993, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -29.03002987968887, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "WELL BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.00876070551261586, "criticality_score": 0.0003017807955735302, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 256.5479064454388, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 475.34790448003355, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 589.7185404989552, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } } } }, { "cid": "26091", "county": "26091", "fips": null, "reporting": 0.0, "current_votes": 0, "current_candidate_votes": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 0, "Haley Stevens": 0, "Mallory McMorrow": 0 }, "current_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": null, "Haley Stevens": null, "Mallory McMorrow": null }, "estimated_remaining_votes": 9669.598638685868, "estimated_final_votes": 9669.598638685868, "turnout_disagreement_votes": 0.0, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 49.45326057381173, "Haley Stevens": 46.839178974492555, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.707560451695713 }, "remaining_sources": [ { "model": "market", "remaining_votes": 9669.598638685868, "weight": 0.1780093144963334 } ], "share_sources": [ { "model": "v0", "weight": 0.03630604611298715, "source": "statewide raw" }, { "model": "v3", "weight": 0.06301781787712588, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "market", "weight": 0.18729675699179427, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "histgeo", "weight": 0.02760802595386354, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "latent", "weight": 0.03563066882913146, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "batchbias", "weight": 0.020512372723621893, "source": "statewide fallback" } ], "candidate_benchmarks": { "Abdul El-Sayed": { "opponent": "Haley Stevens", "expected_remaining_share_points": 49.45326057381173, "expected_final_county_share_points": 49.453260573811725, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.21753450149631, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.21753450149631, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.21753450149631, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 48.21753450149631, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": -189.31370321426488, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": false }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.21753450149631, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.21753450149631, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.21753450149631, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 48.21753450149631, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.874704590997396, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.874704590997396, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.87470459099739, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.024044322225107804, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999973, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 49.531670216098654, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 49.531670216098654, "required_final_county_share_points": 49.531670216098654, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.003259695682198218, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.9999999999999996, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": 1.2357260723154226, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "ABOVE", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.007876433492915, "criticality_score": 0.006373931625604252, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -231.66827662033046, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 11.6959758254307, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 11.6959758254307, "feasible": true, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 138.90678289358368, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Haley Stevens": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 46.839178974492555, "expected_final_county_share_points": 46.83917897449255, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.07490504680796, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.07490504680796, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.07490504680797, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 48.07490504680796, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 285.60614276256916, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.07490504680796, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.07490504680796, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.07490504680797, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 48.07490504680796, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.73227317566207, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.73227317566207, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.73227317566207, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.07865391656842785, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.999999999999999, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 49.3898328994224, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 49.3898328994224, "required_final_county_share_points": 49.38983289942241, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.10597932088248406, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -1.2357260723154084, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.007876433492915, "criticality_score": 0.0063739316256043255, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 327.96071616863475, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 571.324968614396, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 698.535775682549, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Mallory McMorrow": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 3.707560451695713, "expected_final_county_share_points": 3.707560451695713, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 33.27257907093374, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 33.27257907093374, "required_final_county_share_points": 33.27257907093374, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 33.27257907093374, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 5752.515170292247, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 33.27257907093374, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 33.27257907093374, "required_final_county_share_points": 33.27257907093374, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 33.27257907093374, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 33.937107256748334, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 33.937107256748334, "required_final_county_share_points": 33.937107256748334, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.159018308558073, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999906, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 34.60191950368675, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 34.60191950368675, "required_final_county_share_points": 34.60191950368675, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.213613509684069, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.999999999999993, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -29.565018619238025, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "WELL BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.007876433492915, "criticality_score": 0.0002664105710317323, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 284.8290976458379, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 528.1933500915991, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 655.4041571597521, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } } } }, { "cid": "fips:26091", "county": "Lenawee", "fips": "26091", "reporting": 0.0, "current_votes": 0, "current_candidate_votes": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 0, "Haley Stevens": 0, "Mallory McMorrow": 0 }, "current_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": null, "Haley Stevens": null, "Mallory McMorrow": null }, "estimated_remaining_votes": 9669.598638685866, "estimated_final_votes": 9669.598638685866, "turnout_disagreement_votes": 1.8189894035458565e-12, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 49.40484154496592, "Haley Stevens": 46.76140133975397, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.8337571152801133 }, "remaining_sources": [ { "model": "v3", "remaining_votes": 9669.598638685868, "weight": 0.1342208488636769 }, { "model": "histgeo", "remaining_votes": 9669.598638685868, "weight": 0.05994207394479305 }, { "model": "latent", "remaining_votes": 9669.598638685868, "weight": 0.07672787409296966 }, { "model": "batchbias", "remaining_votes": 9669.598638685868, "weight": 0.045123489075924846 } ], "share_sources": [ { "model": "v0", "weight": 0.03630604611298715, "source": "statewide raw" }, { "model": "v3", "weight": 0.15004242351696637, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "market", "weight": 0.0786646379365536, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "histgeo", "weight": 0.06573339512824654, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "latent", "weight": 0.08483492578364633, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "batchbias", "weight": 0.04883898267529022, "source": "county remaining" } ], "candidate_benchmarks": { "Abdul El-Sayed": { "opponent": "Haley Stevens", "expected_remaining_share_points": 49.40484154496592, "expected_final_county_share_points": 49.40484154496592, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.17074715851927, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.17074715851927, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.170747158519276, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 48.17074715851927, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": -189.36212224311055, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": false }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.17074715851927, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.17074715851927, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.170747158519276, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 48.17074715851927, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.827052193634955, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.827052193634955, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.82705219363495, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.024044322225107804, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999973, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 49.483146923868745, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 49.483146923868745, "required_final_county_share_points": 49.48314692386875, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.003259695682198218, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.9999999999999996, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": 1.2340943864466496, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "ABOVE", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.007876433492914997, "criticality_score": 0.006382359063793942, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -231.71669564917636, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 11.647556796584873, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 11.647556796584873, "feasible": true, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 138.8583638647379, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Haley Stevens": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 46.76140133975397, "expected_final_county_share_points": 46.76140133975397, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 47.9954957262006, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 47.9954957262006, "required_final_county_share_points": 47.9954957262006, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 47.9954957262006, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 285.52836512783045, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 47.9954957262006, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 47.9954957262006, "required_final_county_share_points": 47.9954957262006, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 47.9954957262006, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.65200465530991, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.65200465530991, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.6520046553099, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.07865391656842785, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.999999999999999, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 49.30871104791245, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 49.30871104791245, "required_final_county_share_points": 49.30871104791246, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.10597932088248406, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -1.2340943864466354, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.007876433492914997, "criticality_score": 0.006382359063794015, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 327.8829385338962, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 571.2471909796575, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 698.4579980478105, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Mallory McMorrow": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 3.8337571152801133, "expected_final_county_share_points": 3.8337571152801133, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 33.74882454142502, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 33.74882454142502, "required_final_county_share_points": 33.74882454142502, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 33.74882454142502, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 5752.641366955833, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 33.74882454142502, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 33.74882454142502, "required_final_county_share_points": 33.74882454142502, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 33.74882454142502, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 34.40811213788416, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 34.40811213788416, "required_final_county_share_points": 34.40811213788416, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.159018308558073, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999906, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 35.067116345943184, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 35.067116345943184, "required_final_county_share_points": 35.067116345943184, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.213613509684069, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.999999999999993, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -29.91506742614491, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "WELL BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.007876433492914997, "criticality_score": 0.0002632931887036705, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 284.95529430942236, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 528.3195467551836, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 655.5303538233367, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } } } }, { "cid": "26087", "county": "26087", "fips": null, "reporting": 0.0, "current_votes": 0, "current_candidate_votes": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 0, "Haley Stevens": 0, "Mallory McMorrow": 0 }, "current_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": null, "Haley Stevens": null, "Mallory McMorrow": null }, "estimated_remaining_votes": 8180.641770206287, "estimated_final_votes": 8180.641770206287, "turnout_disagreement_votes": 9.094947017729282e-13, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 47.492763922216724, "Haley Stevens": 48.89128799036895, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.6159480874143175 }, "remaining_sources": [ { "model": "market", "remaining_votes": 8180.641770206288, "weight": 0.1780093144963334 } ], "share_sources": [ { "model": "v0", "weight": 0.03630604611298715, "source": "statewide raw" }, { "model": "v3", "weight": 0.06301781787712588, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "market", "weight": 0.18729675699179427, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "histgeo", "weight": 0.02760802595386354, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "latent", "weight": 0.03563066882913146, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "batchbias", "weight": 0.020512372723621893, "source": "statewide fallback" } ], "candidate_benchmarks": { "Abdul El-Sayed": { "opponent": "Haley Stevens", "expected_remaining_share_points": 47.492763922216724, "expected_final_county_share_points": 47.492763922216724, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 46.256533276068595, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 46.256533276068595, "required_final_county_share_points": 46.256533276068595, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 46.256533276068595, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": -234.73212415647495, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": false }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 46.256533276068595, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 46.256533276068595, "required_final_county_share_points": 46.256533276068595, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 46.256533276068595, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 46.913642523992635, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 46.913642523992635, "required_final_county_share_points": 46.913642523992635, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.024044322225107804, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999973, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 47.57129484250533, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 47.57129484250533, "required_final_county_share_points": 47.57129484250533, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.003259695682198218, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.9999999999999996, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": 1.2362306461481296, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "ABOVE", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.006663594140774916, "criticality_score": 0.005390251537233336, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -284.7956444588789, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 2.8632838081873047, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 2.8632838081873047, "feasible": true, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 153.22770281162747, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Haley Stevens": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 48.89128799036895, "expected_final_county_share_points": 48.89128799036896, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 50.12751863651709, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 50.12751863651709, "required_final_county_share_points": 50.12751863651709, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 50.12751863651709, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 331.1161760690606, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 50.12751863651709, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 50.12751863651709, "required_final_county_share_points": 50.12751863651709, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 50.12751863651709, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 50.78407897745313, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 50.78407897745313, "required_final_county_share_points": 50.78407897745313, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.07865391656842785, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.999999999999999, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 51.44008458406315, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 51.44008458406315, "required_final_county_share_points": 51.44008458406315, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.10597932088248406, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -1.2362306461481367, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.006663594140774916, "criticality_score": 0.005390251537233305, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 381.17969637146456, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 668.8386246385307, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 819.2030436419709, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Mallory McMorrow": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 3.6159480874143175, "expected_final_county_share_points": 3.6159480874143175, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 32.172494533581066, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 32.172494533581066, "required_final_county_share_points": 32.172494533581066, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 32.172494533581066, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 6798.762808158199, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 32.172494533581066, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 32.172494533581066, "required_final_county_share_points": 32.172494533581066, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 32.172494533581066, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 32.80873554394479, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 32.80873554394479, "required_final_county_share_points": 32.80873554394479, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.159018308558073, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999906, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 33.44500349527299, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 33.44500349527299, "required_final_county_share_points": 33.44500349527299, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.213613509684069, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.999999999999993, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -28.55654644616675, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "WELL BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.006663594140774916, "criticality_score": 0.0002333473395789215, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 335.90435646850995, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 623.5632847355761, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 773.9277037390162, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } } } }, { "cid": "fips:26087", "county": "Lapeer", "fips": "26087", "reporting": 7.41, "current_votes": 685, "current_candidate_votes": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 258, "Haley Stevens": 399, "Mallory McMorrow": 28 }, "current_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 37.66423357664234, "Haley Stevens": 58.24817518248175, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.087591240875913 }, "estimated_remaining_votes": 8180.641770206287, "estimated_final_votes": 8865.641770206286, "turnout_disagreement_votes": 9.094947017729282e-13, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 44.72409096920356, "Haley Stevens": 51.33780540183276, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.9381036289636753 }, "remaining_sources": [ { "model": "v3", "remaining_votes": 8180.641770206288, "weight": 0.1342208488636769 }, { "model": "histgeo", "remaining_votes": 8180.641770206288, "weight": 0.05994207394479305 }, { "model": "latent", "remaining_votes": 8180.641770206288, "weight": 0.07672787409296966 }, { "model": "batchbias", "remaining_votes": 8180.641770206288, "weight": 0.045123489075924846 } ], "share_sources": [ { "model": "v0", "weight": 0.03630604611298715, "source": "statewide raw" }, { "model": "v1", "weight": 0.14599140026529184, "source": "county live" }, { "model": "v3", "weight": 0.15004242351696637, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "market", "weight": 0.0786646379365536, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "histgeo", "weight": 0.06573339512824654, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "latent", "weight": 0.08483492578364633, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "batchbias", "weight": 0.04883898267529022, "source": "county remaining" } ], "candidate_benchmarks": { "Abdul El-Sayed": { "opponent": "Haley Stevens", "expected_remaining_share_points": 44.72409096920356, "expected_final_county_share_points": 44.17861412282835, "current_county_share_points": 37.66423357664234, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 43.49928200064763, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 43.49928200064763, "required_final_county_share_points": 43.048439492677616, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 43.49928200064763, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": -237.50079710948805, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": false }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 43.49928200064763, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 43.49928200064763, "required_final_county_share_points": 43.048439492677616, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 43.49928200064763, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 44.149895210936045, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 44.149895210936045, "required_final_county_share_points": 43.64878335297433, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.024044322225107804, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999973, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 44.80201171029029, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 44.80201171029029, "required_final_county_share_points": 44.25051435135346, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.003259695682198218, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.9999999999999996, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": 1.2248089685559265, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "ABOVE", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.006663594140774916, "criticality_score": 0.00544051710254165, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -287.56431741189203, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 0.09461085517413892, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.09461085517413892, "feasible": true, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 150.45902985861431, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Haley Stevens": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 51.33780540183276, "expected_final_county_share_points": 51.8717321521389, "current_county_share_points": 58.24817518248175, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 52.56261437038868, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 52.56261437038868, "required_final_county_share_points": 53.001906782289645, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 52.56261437038868, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 333.5626934805244, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 52.56261437038868, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 52.56261437038868, "required_final_county_share_points": 53.001906782289645, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 52.56261437038868, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 53.21172305363015, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 53.21172305363015, "required_final_county_share_points": 53.600862362174894, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.07865391656842785, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.999999999999999, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 53.85932599592864, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 53.85932599592864, "required_final_county_share_points": 54.198428541543784, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.10597932088248406, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -1.2248089685559194, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.006663594140774916, "criticality_score": 0.0054405171025416815, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 383.6262137829284, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 671.2851420499945, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 821.6495610534347, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Mallory McMorrow": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 3.9381036289636753, "expected_final_county_share_points": 3.949653725032751, "current_county_share_points": 4.087591240875913, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 32.249482010879674, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 32.249482010879674, "required_final_county_share_points": 30.07356562744523, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 32.249482010879674, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 6799.084963699748, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 32.249482010879674, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 32.249482010879674, "required_final_county_share_points": 30.07356562744523, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 32.249482010879674, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 32.829018033308586, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 32.829018033308586, "required_final_county_share_points": 30.608324048246043, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.159018308558073, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999906, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 33.40652993372774, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 33.40652993372774, "required_final_county_share_points": 31.141214739954, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.213613509684069, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.999999999999993, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -28.311378381916, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "WELL BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.006663594140774916, "criticality_score": 0.0002353680577075439, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 336.2265120100593, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 623.8854402771254, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 774.2498592805656, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } } } }, { "cid": "fips:26111", "county": "Midland", "fips": "26111", "reporting": 38.17, "current_votes": 3780, "current_candidate_votes": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 1603, "Haley Stevens": 1999, "Mallory McMorrow": 178 }, "current_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 42.407407407407405, "Haley Stevens": 52.883597883597886, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.708994708994709 }, "estimated_remaining_votes": 7037.057104082069, "estimated_final_votes": 10817.057104082069, "turnout_disagreement_votes": 0.0, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 45.19162299853491, "Haley Stevens": 50.456543886001384, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.3518331154637 }, "remaining_sources": [ { "model": "v3", "remaining_votes": 7037.057104082069, "weight": 0.1342208488636769 }, { "model": "histgeo", "remaining_votes": 7037.057104082069, "weight": 0.05994207394479305 }, { "model": "latent", "remaining_votes": 7037.057104082069, "weight": 0.07672787409296966 }, { "model": "batchbias", "remaining_votes": 7037.057104082069, "weight": 0.045123489075924846 } ], "share_sources": [ { "model": "v0", "weight": 0.03630604611298715, "source": "statewide raw" }, { "model": "v1", "weight": 0.14599140026529184, "source": "county live" }, { "model": "v3", "weight": 0.15004242351696637, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "market", "weight": 0.0786646379365536, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "histgeo", "weight": 0.06573339512824654, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "latent", "weight": 0.08483492578364633, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "batchbias", "weight": 0.04883898267529022, "source": "county remaining" } ], "candidate_benchmarks": { "Abdul El-Sayed": { "opponent": "Haley Stevens", "expected_remaining_share_points": 45.19162299853491, "expected_final_county_share_points": 44.21868416376715, "current_county_share_points": 42.407407407407405, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 43.969561372027854, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 43.969561372027854, "required_final_county_share_points": 43.42366964478192, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 43.969561372027854, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": -282.8973314976655, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": false }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 43.969561372027854, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 43.969561372027854, "required_final_county_share_points": 43.42366964478192, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 43.969561372027854, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 44.61882285783133, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 44.61882285783133, "required_final_county_share_points": 43.84604794112612, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.024044322225107804, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999973, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 45.269339711514775, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 45.269339711514775, "required_final_county_share_points": 44.26924291943596, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.003259695682198218, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.9999999999999996, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": 1.222061626507056, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "ABOVE", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.0057320799277435315, "criticality_score": 0.004690499892486752, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -341.09662124221467, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -6.690546465690886, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 168.10943435850865, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Haley Stevens": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 50.456543886001384, "expected_final_county_share_points": 51.30467328225396, "current_county_share_points": 52.883597883597886, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 51.678605512508426, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 51.678605512508426, "required_final_county_share_points": 52.09968780123917, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 51.678605512508426, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 378.5454983822018, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 51.678605512508426, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 51.678605512508426, "required_final_county_share_points": 52.09968780123917, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 51.678605512508426, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 52.3266088404161, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 52.3266088404161, "required_final_county_share_points": 52.52124760056767, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.07865391656842785, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.999999999999999, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 52.97335124472781, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 52.97335124472781, "required_final_county_share_points": 52.94198710364889, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.10597932088248406, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -1.2220616265070419, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.0057320799277435315, "criticality_score": 0.0046904998924868066, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 436.74478812675096, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 771.1508629032746, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 945.9508437274742, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Mallory McMorrow": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 4.3518331154637, "expected_final_county_share_points": 4.4766425539788886, "current_county_share_points": 4.708994708994709, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 33.80975319683997, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 33.80975319683997, "required_final_county_share_points": 23.640548576246474, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 33.80975319683997, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 7903.770782826015, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 33.80975319683997, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 33.80975319683997, "required_final_county_share_points": 23.640548576246474, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 33.80975319683997, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 34.381231765300555, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 34.381231765300555, "required_final_county_share_points": 24.012325047547392, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.159018308558073, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999906, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 34.94952316265163, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 34.94952316265163, "required_final_county_share_points": 24.3820280986119, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.213613509684069, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.999999999999993, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -29.457920081376272, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "WELL BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.0057320799277435315, "criticality_score": 0.00019458535809415263, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 390.6400773562133, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 725.046152132737, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 899.8461329569366, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } } } }, { "cid": "26111", "county": "26111", "fips": null, "reporting": 0.0, "current_votes": 0, "current_candidate_votes": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 0, "Haley Stevens": 0, "Mallory McMorrow": 0 }, "current_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": null, "Haley Stevens": null, "Mallory McMorrow": null }, "estimated_remaining_votes": 7037.057104082069, "estimated_final_votes": 7037.057104082069, "turnout_disagreement_votes": 0.0, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 46.57792626117934, "Haley Stevens": 49.255133459520195, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.166940279300457 }, "remaining_sources": [ { "model": "market", "remaining_votes": 7037.057104082069, "weight": 0.1780093144963334 } ], "share_sources": [ { "model": "v0", "weight": 0.03630604611298715, "source": "statewide raw" }, { "model": "v3", "weight": 0.06301781787712588, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "market", "weight": 0.18729675699179427, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "histgeo", "weight": 0.02760802595386354, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "latent", "weight": 0.03563066882913146, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "batchbias", "weight": 0.020512372723621893, "source": "statewide fallback" } ], "candidate_benchmarks": { "Abdul El-Sayed": { "opponent": "Haley Stevens", "expected_remaining_share_points": 46.57792626117934, "expected_final_county_share_points": 46.577926261179336, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 45.349886369488424, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 45.349886369488424, "required_final_county_share_points": 45.34988636948842, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 45.349886369488424, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": -281.5110282350207, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": false }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 45.349886369488424, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 45.349886369488424, "required_final_county_share_points": 45.34988636948842, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 45.349886369488424, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 46.00253656009193, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 46.00253656009193, "required_final_county_share_points": 46.00253656009193, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.024044322225107804, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999973, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 46.65596544920646, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 46.65596544920646, "required_final_county_share_points": 46.65596544920646, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.003259695682198218, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.9999999999999996, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": 1.2280398916909192, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "ABOVE", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.0057320799277435315, "criticality_score": 0.0046676659011873674, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -339.7103179795702, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -5.304243203046454, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 169.49573762115307, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Haley Stevens": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 49.255133459520195, "expected_final_county_share_points": 49.255133459520195, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 50.4831733512111, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 50.4831733512111, "required_final_county_share_points": 50.4831733512111, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 50.4831733512111, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 377.3440879557202, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 50.4831733512111, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 50.4831733512111, "required_final_county_share_points": 50.4831733512111, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 50.4831733512111, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 51.13503977336495, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 51.13503977336495, "required_final_county_share_points": 51.13503977336495, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.07865391656842785, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.999999999999999, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 51.78611737335274, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 51.78611737335274, "required_final_county_share_points": 51.78611737335274, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.10597932088248406, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -1.228039891690905, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.0057320799277435315, "criticality_score": 0.004667665901187421, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 435.5433777002698, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 769.9494524767935, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 944.749433300993, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Mallory McMorrow": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 4.166940279300457, "expected_final_county_share_points": 4.166940279300458, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 33.809233454088464, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 33.809233454088464, "required_final_county_share_points": 33.809233454088464, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 33.809233454088464, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 7903.585889989853, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 33.809233454088464, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 33.809233454088464, "required_final_county_share_points": 33.809233454088464, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 33.809233454088464, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 34.410312809490804, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 34.410312809490804, "required_final_county_share_points": 34.410312809490804, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.159018308558073, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999906, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 35.00906747426667, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 35.00906747426667, "required_final_county_share_points": 35.00906747426667, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.213613509684069, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.999999999999993, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -29.64229317478801, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "WELL BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.0057320799277435315, "criticality_score": 0.00019337505009966305, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 390.45518452005, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 724.8612592965737, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 899.6612401207733, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } } } }, { "cid": "fips:26159", "county": "Van Buren", "fips": "26159", "reporting": 21.44, "current_votes": 1748, "current_candidate_votes": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 790, "Haley Stevens": 881, "Mallory McMorrow": 77 }, "current_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 45.19450800915332, "Haley Stevens": 50.400457665903886, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.4050343249427915 }, "estimated_remaining_votes": 6516.409355732237, "estimated_final_votes": 8264.409355732238, "turnout_disagreement_votes": 9.094947017729282e-13, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 47.25552132257438, "Haley Stevens": 48.62489070055419, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.119587976871421 }, "remaining_sources": [ { "model": "v3", "remaining_votes": 6516.409355732236, "weight": 0.1342208488636769 }, { "model": "histgeo", "remaining_votes": 6516.409355732236, "weight": 0.05994207394479305 }, { "model": "latent", "remaining_votes": 6516.409355732236, "weight": 0.07672787409296966 }, { "model": "batchbias", "remaining_votes": 6516.409355732236, "weight": 0.045123489075924846 } ], "share_sources": [ { "model": "v0", "weight": 0.03630604611298715, "source": "statewide raw" }, { "model": "v1", "weight": 0.14599140026529184, "source": "county live" }, { "model": "v3", "weight": 0.15004242351696637, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "market", "weight": 0.0786646379365536, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "histgeo", "weight": 0.06573339512824654, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "latent", "weight": 0.08483492578364633, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "batchbias", "weight": 0.04883898267529022, "source": "county remaining" } ], "candidate_benchmarks": { "Abdul El-Sayed": { "opponent": "Haley Stevens", "expected_remaining_share_points": 47.25552132257438, "expected_final_county_share_points": 46.819597699144325, "current_county_share_points": 45.19450800915332, "recent_batch_votes": 948, "recent_batch_share_points": 38.39662447257383, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 46.025735148483164, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 46.025735148483164, "required_final_county_share_points": 45.84992282155132, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 46.025735148483164, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": -307.0470680286294, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": false }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 46.025735148483164, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 46.025735148483164, "required_final_county_share_points": 45.84992282155132, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 46.025735148483164, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 46.67942067525063, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 46.67942067525063, "required_final_county_share_points": 46.36534773565963, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.024044322225107804, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999973, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 47.33364237533843, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 47.33364237533843, "required_final_county_share_points": 46.881195417408144, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.003259695682198218, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.9999999999999996, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": 1.2297861740912168, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -7.629110675909331, "status": "ABOVE", "recent_status": "WELL BELOW", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.0053079829702227885, "criticality_score": 0.004316183643994261, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -369.8963617104555, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -8.77192711914411, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 179.99421381862408, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Haley Stevens": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 48.62489070055419, "expected_final_county_share_points": 49.000439747296234, "current_county_share_points": 50.400457665903886, "recent_batch_votes": 948, "recent_batch_share_points": 56.118143459915615, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 49.854676874645406, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 49.854676874645406, "required_final_county_share_points": 49.970114624889234, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 49.854676874645406, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 402.9274800517579, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 49.854676874645406, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 49.854676874645406, "required_final_county_share_points": 49.970114624889234, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 49.854676874645406, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 50.50782041201335, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 50.50782041201335, "required_final_county_share_points": 50.48511218543341, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.07865391656842785, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.999999999999999, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 51.16041615278084, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 51.16041615278084, "required_final_county_share_points": 50.99967781348988, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.10597932088248406, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -1.2297861740912168, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": 6.2634665852702085, "status": "BELOW", "recent_status": "WELL ABOVE", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.0053079829702227885, "criticality_score": 0.004316183643994261, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 465.7767737335841, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 826.9012083248954, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1015.6673492626637, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Mallory McMorrow": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 4.119587976871421, "expected_final_county_share_points": 4.17996255355943, "current_county_share_points": 4.4050343249427915, "recent_batch_votes": 948, "recent_batch_share_points": 5.485232067510549, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 33.93232968573761, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 33.93232968573761, "required_final_county_share_points": 27.687030104241227, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 33.93232968573761, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 8534.685917313122, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 33.93232968573761, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 33.93232968573761, "required_final_county_share_points": 27.687030104241227, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 33.93232968573761, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 34.546229437520005, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 34.546229437520005, "required_final_county_share_points": 28.171084307488275, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.159018308558073, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999906, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 35.158130823795574, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 35.158130823795574, "required_final_county_share_points": 28.65356281825396, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.213613509684069, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.999999999999993, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -29.81274170886619, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -28.447097618227065, "status": "WELL BELOW", "recent_status": "WELL BELOW", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.0053079829702227885, "criticality_score": 0.0001780441068472483, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 421.2714710099013, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 782.3959056012127, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 971.162046538981, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } } } }, { "cid": "26159", "county": "26159", "fips": null, "reporting": 0.0, "current_votes": 0, "current_candidate_votes": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 0, "Haley Stevens": 0, "Mallory McMorrow": 0 }, "current_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": null, "Haley Stevens": null, "Mallory McMorrow": null }, "estimated_remaining_votes": 6516.409355732237, "estimated_final_votes": 6516.409355732237, "turnout_disagreement_votes": 9.094947017729282e-13, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 49.51528277225422, "Haley Stevens": 46.53771776940703, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.946999458338755 }, "remaining_sources": [ { "model": "market", "remaining_votes": 6516.409355732236, "weight": 0.1780093144963334 } ], "share_sources": [ { "model": "v0", "weight": 0.03630604611298715, "source": "statewide raw" }, { "model": "v3", "weight": 0.06301781787712588, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "market", "weight": 0.18729675699179427, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "histgeo", "weight": 0.02760802595386354, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "latent", "weight": 0.03563066882913146, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "batchbias", "weight": 0.020512372723621893, "source": "statewide fallback" } ], "candidate_benchmarks": { "Abdul El-Sayed": { "opponent": "Haley Stevens", "expected_remaining_share_points": 49.51528277225422, "expected_final_county_share_points": 49.51528277225422, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.28278378017898, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.28278378017898, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.282783780178974, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 48.28278378017898, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": -304.78730657894937, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": false }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.28278378017898, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.28278378017898, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.282783780178974, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 48.28278378017898, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.93826804224571, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.93826804224571, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.93826804224571, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.024044322225107804, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999973, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 49.593479420804734, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 49.593479420804734, "required_final_county_share_points": 49.593479420804734, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.003259695682198218, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.9999999999999996, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": 1.2324989920752358, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "ABOVE", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.0053079829702227885, "criticality_score": 0.00430668341666179, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -367.63660026077565, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -6.512165669464274, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 182.25397526830392, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Haley Stevens": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 46.53771776940703, "expected_final_county_share_points": 46.537717769407024, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 47.770216761482274, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 47.770216761482274, "required_final_county_share_points": 47.770216761482274, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 47.770216761482274, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 400.84030712061065, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 47.770216761482274, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 47.770216761482274, "required_final_county_share_points": 47.770216761482274, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 47.770216761482274, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.42596757275519, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.42596757275519, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.42596757275519, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.07865391656842785, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.999999999999999, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 49.08197857692001, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 49.08197857692001, "required_final_county_share_points": 49.081978576920015, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.10597932088248406, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -1.232498992075243, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.0053079829702227885, "criticality_score": 0.0043066834166617645, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 463.6896008024369, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 824.8140353937482, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1013.5801763315166, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Mallory McMorrow": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 3.946999458338755, "expected_final_county_share_points": 3.9469994583387544, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 34.22286820767025, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 34.22286820767025, "required_final_county_share_points": 34.22286820767025, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 34.22286820767025, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 8534.51332879459, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 34.22286820767025, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 34.22286820767025, "required_final_county_share_points": 34.22286820767025, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 34.22286820767025, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 34.87984921558222, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 34.87984921558222, "required_final_county_share_points": 34.87984921558222, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.159018308558073, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999906, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 35.53611265104667, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 35.53611265104667, "required_final_county_share_points": 35.53611265104667, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.213613509684069, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.999999999999993, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -30.275868749331497, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "WELL BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.0053079829702227885, "criticality_score": 0.00017532058333883453, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 421.09888249136867, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 782.22331708268, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 970.9894580204483, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } } } }, { "cid": "26073", "county": "26073", "fips": null, "reporting": 0.0, "current_votes": 0, "current_candidate_votes": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 0, "Haley Stevens": 0, "Mallory McMorrow": 0 }, "current_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": null, "Haley Stevens": null, "Mallory McMorrow": null }, "estimated_remaining_votes": 6240.3953919174755, "estimated_final_votes": 6240.3953919174755, "turnout_disagreement_votes": 0.0, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 48.29669880561634, "Haley Stevens": 47.412322142179555, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.290979052204104 }, "remaining_sources": [ { "model": "market", "remaining_votes": 6240.3953919174755, "weight": 0.1780093144963334 } ], "share_sources": [ { "model": "v0", "weight": 0.03630604611298715, "source": "statewide raw" }, { "model": "v3", "weight": 0.06301781787712588, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "market", "weight": 0.18729675699179427, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "histgeo", "weight": 0.02760802595386354, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "latent", "weight": 0.03563066882913146, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "batchbias", "weight": 0.020512372723621893, "source": "statewide fallback" } ], "candidate_benchmarks": { "Abdul El-Sayed": { "opponent": "Haley Stevens", "expected_remaining_share_points": 48.29669880561634, "expected_final_county_share_points": 48.29669880561634, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 47.06822390057636, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 47.06822390057636, "required_final_county_share_points": 47.06822390057636, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 47.06822390057636, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": -321.6767664973445, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": false }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 47.06822390057636, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 47.06822390057636, "required_final_county_share_points": 47.06822390057636, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 47.06822390057636, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 47.72139709974878, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 47.72139709974878, "required_final_county_share_points": 47.721397099748785, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.024044322225107804, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999973, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.37468647317589, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.37468647317589, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.37468647317589, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.003259695682198218, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.9999999999999996, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": 1.228474905039974, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "ABOVE", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.005083154028470737, "criticality_score": 0.004137776040533229, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -387.30589728605514, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -10.208855133528687, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 186.9064508045425, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Haley Stevens": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 47.412322142179555, "expected_final_county_share_points": 47.412322142179555, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.64079704721954, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.64079704721954, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.64079704721954, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 48.64079704721954, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 417.38578744514035, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.64079704721954, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.64079704721954, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.64079704721954, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 48.64079704721954, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 49.293847627020035, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 49.293847627020035, "required_final_county_share_points": 49.293847627020035, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.07865391656842785, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.999999999999999, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 49.946769135669626, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 49.946769135669626, "required_final_county_share_points": 49.946769135669626, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.10597932088248406, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -1.2284749050399881, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.005083154028470737, "criticality_score": 0.004137776040533181, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 483.01491823385106, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 860.1119603863774, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1057.2272663244487, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Mallory McMorrow": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 4.290979052204104, "expected_final_county_share_points": 4.290979052204105, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 34.95620564890421, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 34.95620564890421, "required_final_county_share_points": 34.95620564890421, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 34.95620564890421, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 8912.166000910478, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 34.95620564890421, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 34.95620564890421, "required_final_county_share_points": 34.95620564890421, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 34.95620564890421, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 35.58058939785999, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 35.58058939785999, "required_final_county_share_points": 35.58058939785999, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.159018308558073, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999906, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 36.20265998323656, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 36.20265998323656, "required_final_county_share_points": 36.20265998323656, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.213613509684069, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.999999999999993, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -30.665226596700105, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "WELL BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.005083154028470737, "criticality_score": 0.00016576280669055083, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 439.8935751438756, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 816.990617296402, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1014.1059232344732, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } } } }, { "cid": "fips:26073", "county": "Isabella", "fips": "26073", "reporting": 23.48, "current_votes": 1752, "current_candidate_votes": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 846, "Haley Stevens": 813, "Mallory McMorrow": 93 }, "current_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 48.28767123287671, "Haley Stevens": 46.4041095890411, "Mallory McMorrow": 5.308219178082192 }, "estimated_remaining_votes": 6240.395391917475, "estimated_final_votes": 7992.395391917475, "turnout_disagreement_votes": 9.094947017729282e-13, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 48.8925809522907, "Haley Stevens": 46.526053035113435, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.581366012595873 }, "remaining_sources": [ { "model": "v3", "remaining_votes": 6240.3953919174755, "weight": 0.1342208488636769 }, { "model": "histgeo", "remaining_votes": 6240.3953919174755, "weight": 0.05994207394479305 }, { "model": "latent", "remaining_votes": 6240.3953919174755, "weight": 0.07672787409296966 }, { "model": "batchbias", "remaining_votes": 6240.3953919174755, "weight": 0.045123489075924846 } ], "share_sources": [ { "model": "v0", "weight": 0.03630604611298715, "source": "statewide raw" }, { "model": "v1", "weight": 0.14599140026529184, "source": "county live" }, { "model": "v3", "weight": 0.15004242351696637, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "market", "weight": 0.0786646379365536, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "histgeo", "weight": 0.06573339512824654, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "latent", "weight": 0.08483492578364633, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "batchbias", "weight": 0.04883898267529022, "source": "county remaining" } ], "candidate_benchmarks": { "Abdul El-Sayed": { "opponent": "Haley Stevens", "expected_remaining_share_points": 48.8925809522907, "expected_final_county_share_points": 48.759979676147, "current_county_share_points": 48.28767123287671, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 47.66799292688369, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 47.66799292688369, "required_final_county_share_points": 47.80383160088094, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 47.66799292688369, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": -321.0808843506707, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": false }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 47.66799292688369, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 47.66799292688369, "required_final_county_share_points": 47.80383160088094, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 47.66799292688369, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.31922133349791, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.31922133349791, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.3123052872342, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.024044322225107804, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999973, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.97028883887759, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.97028883887759, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.82065334325097, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.003259695682198218, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.9999999999999996, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": 1.2245880254070087, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "ABOVE", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.005083154028470737, "criticality_score": 0.004150909467517683, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -386.7100151393808, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -9.612972986854324, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 187.50233295121686, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Haley Stevens": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 46.526053035113435, "expected_final_county_share_points": 46.499322010552916, "current_county_share_points": 46.4041095890411, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 47.750641060520444, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 47.750641060520444, "required_final_county_share_points": 47.45547008581897, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 47.750641060520444, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 416.4995183380749, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 47.750641060520444, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 47.750641060520444, "required_final_county_share_points": 47.45547008581897, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 47.750641060520444, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.40202396708471, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.40202396708471, "required_final_county_share_points": 47.96406440443942, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.07865391656842785, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.999999999999999, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 49.05355495472061, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 49.05355495472061, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.472774343520534, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.10597932088248406, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -1.2245880254070087, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.005083154028470737, "criticality_score": 0.004150909467517683, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 482.1286491267849, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 859.2256912793114, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1056.3409972173824, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Mallory McMorrow": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 4.581366012595873, "expected_final_county_share_points": 4.740698313300094, "current_county_share_points": 5.308219178082192, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 36.1739198229107, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 36.1739198229107, "required_final_county_share_points": 29.407899765341217, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 36.1739198229107, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 8912.45638787087, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 36.1739198229107, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 36.1739198229107, "required_final_county_share_points": 29.407899765341217, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 36.1739198229107, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 36.79701005774318, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 36.79701005774318, "required_final_county_share_points": 29.894403402802595, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.159018308558073, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999906, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 37.41701679916838, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 37.41701679916838, "required_final_county_share_points": 30.37849947443342, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.213613509684069, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.999999999999993, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -31.592553810314826, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "WELL BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.005083154028470737, "criticality_score": 0.00016089721834425144, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 440.1839621042674, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 817.2810042567937, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1014.3963101948649, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } } } }, { "cid": "fips:26089", "county": "Leelanau", "fips": "26089", "reporting": 15.83, "current_votes": 903, "current_candidate_votes": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 495, "Haley Stevens": 382, "Mallory McMorrow": 26 }, "current_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 54.81727574750831, "Haley Stevens": 42.30343300110742, "Mallory McMorrow": 2.8792912513842746 }, "estimated_remaining_votes": 5496.342097041341, "estimated_final_votes": 6399.342097041341, "turnout_disagreement_votes": 0.0, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 51.92963635912877, "Haley Stevens": 44.689655617645144, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.3807080232260818 }, "remaining_sources": [ { "model": "v3", "remaining_votes": 5496.342097041341, "weight": 0.1342208488636769 }, { "model": "histgeo", "remaining_votes": 5496.342097041341, "weight": 0.05994207394479305 }, { "model": "latent", "remaining_votes": 5496.342097041341, "weight": 0.07672787409296966 }, { "model": "batchbias", "remaining_votes": 5496.342097041341, "weight": 0.045123489075924846 } ], "share_sources": [ { "model": "v0", "weight": 0.03630604611298715, "source": "statewide raw" }, { "model": "v1", "weight": 0.14599140026529184, "source": "county live" }, { "model": "v3", "weight": 0.15004242351696637, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "market", "weight": 0.0786646379365536, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "histgeo", "weight": 0.06573339512824654, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "latent", "weight": 0.08483492578364633, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "batchbias", "weight": 0.04883898267529022, "source": "county remaining" } ], "candidate_benchmarks": { "Abdul El-Sayed": { "opponent": "Haley Stevens", "expected_remaining_share_points": 51.92963635912877, "expected_final_county_share_points": 52.337106115888965, "current_county_share_points": 54.81727574750831, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 50.69425226719954, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 50.69425226719954, "required_final_county_share_points": 51.27604491810972, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 50.69425226719954, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": -368.1280433204432, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": false }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 50.69425226719954, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 50.69425226719954, "required_final_county_share_points": 51.27604491810972, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 50.69425226719954, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 51.351618242492705, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 51.351618242492705, "required_final_county_share_points": 51.840651127369405, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.024044322225107804, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999973, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 52.007921993383974, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 52.007921993383974, "required_final_county_share_points": 52.404345000859564, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.003259695682198218, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.9999999999999996, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": 1.2353840919292338, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "ABOVE", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.004477080652391851, "criticality_score": 0.0036240394235611626, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -442.64155032537974, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -14.495957746440205, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 209.30333005889648, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Haley Stevens": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 44.689655617645144, "expected_final_county_share_points": 44.35293990686453, "current_county_share_points": 42.30343300110742, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 45.92503970957438, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 45.92503970957438, "required_final_county_share_points": 45.41400110464378, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 45.92503970957438, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 464.74733529721715, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 45.92503970957438, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 45.92503970957438, "required_final_county_share_points": 45.41400110464378, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 45.92503970957438, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 46.58346395490396, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 46.58346395490396, "required_final_county_share_points": 45.97951625330114, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.07865391656842785, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.999999999999999, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 47.24294247049858, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 47.24294247049858, "required_final_county_share_points": 46.54593690598556, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.10597932088248406, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -1.2353840919292338, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.004477080652391851, "criticality_score": 0.0036240394235611626, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 539.2608423021536, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 967.4064348810931, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1191.20572268643, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Mallory McMorrow": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 3.3807080232260818, "expected_final_county_share_points": 3.3099539772464976, "current_county_share_points": 2.8792912513842746, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 32.759951700275636, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 32.759951700275636, "required_final_county_share_points": 28.54354382956283, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 32.759951700275636, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 10117.136594525324, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 32.759951700275636, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 32.759951700275636, "required_final_county_share_points": 28.54354382956283, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 32.759951700275636, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 33.47427160480194, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 33.47427160480194, "required_final_county_share_points": 29.157067298454685, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.159018308558073, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999906, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 34.191469734079504, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 34.191469734079504, "required_final_county_share_points": 29.77306285082406, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.213613509684069, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.999999999999993, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -29.379243677049555, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "WELL BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.004477080652391851, "criticality_score": 0.00015238924124820995, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 497.9518947077346, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 926.0974872866741, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1149.8967750920108, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } } } }, { "cid": "26089", "county": "26089", "fips": null, "reporting": 0.0, "current_votes": 0, "current_candidate_votes": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 0, "Haley Stevens": 0, "Mallory McMorrow": 0 }, "current_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": null, "Haley Stevens": null, "Mallory McMorrow": null }, "estimated_remaining_votes": 5496.342097041341, "estimated_final_votes": 5496.342097041341, "turnout_disagreement_votes": 0.0, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 49.77721291445259, "Haley Stevens": 46.404587803541965, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.8181992820054464 }, "remaining_sources": [ { "model": "market", "remaining_votes": 5496.342097041341, "weight": 0.1780093144963334 } ], "share_sources": [ { "model": "v0", "weight": 0.03630604611298715, "source": "statewide raw" }, { "model": "v3", "weight": 0.06301781787712588, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "market", "weight": 0.18729675699179427, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "histgeo", "weight": 0.02760802595386354, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "latent", "weight": 0.03563066882913146, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "batchbias", "weight": 0.020512372723621893, "source": "statewide fallback" } ], "candidate_benchmarks": { "Abdul El-Sayed": { "opponent": "Haley Stevens", "expected_remaining_share_points": 49.77721291445259, "expected_final_county_share_points": 49.7772129144526, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.54326417857347, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.54326417857347, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.54326417857347, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 48.54326417857347, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": -370.2804667651199, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": false }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.54326417857347, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.54326417857347, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.54326417857347, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 48.54326417857347, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 49.19955155345625, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 49.19955155345625, "required_final_county_share_points": 49.19955155345625, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.024044322225107804, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999973, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 49.85549284741266, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 49.85549284741266, "required_final_county_share_points": 49.85549284741266, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.003259695682198218, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.9999999999999996, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": 1.2339487358791175, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "ABOVE", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.004477080652391851, "criticality_score": 0.0036282549851653187, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -444.7939737700559, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -16.648381191116385, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 207.15090661422028, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Haley Stevens": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 46.404587803541965, "expected_final_county_share_points": 46.404587803541965, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 47.638536539421075, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 47.638536539421075, "required_final_county_share_points": 47.63853653942107, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 47.638536539421075, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 466.46226748311454, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 47.638536539421075, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 47.638536539421075, "required_final_county_share_points": 47.63853653942107, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 47.638536539421075, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.29516375532679, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.29516375532679, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.29516375532678, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.07865391656842785, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.999999999999999, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.95212454755546, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.95212454755546, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.95212454755546, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.10597932088248406, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -1.2339487358791104, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.004477080652391851, "criticality_score": 0.0036282549851653395, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 540.9757744880504, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 969.1213670669899, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1192.9206548723266, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Mallory McMorrow": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 3.8181992820054464, "expected_final_county_share_points": 3.818199282005447, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 33.83082315675397, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 33.83082315675397, "required_final_county_share_points": 33.83082315675397, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 33.83082315675397, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 10117.574085784105, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 33.83082315675397, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 33.83082315675397, "required_final_county_share_points": 33.83082315675397, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 33.83082315675397, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 34.49666511029526, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 34.49666511029526, "required_final_county_share_points": 34.49666511029526, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.159018308558073, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999906, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 35.16241197253432, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 35.16241197253432, "required_final_county_share_points": 35.16241197253432, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.213613509684069, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.999999999999993, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -30.012623874748527, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "WELL BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.004477080652391851, "criticality_score": 0.00014917325026548897, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 498.38938596651394, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 926.5349785454534, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1150.3342663507901, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } } } }, { "cid": "name:gd_traverse", "county": "name:gd_traverse", "fips": null, "reporting": 0.0, "current_votes": 0, "current_candidate_votes": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 0, "Haley Stevens": 0, "Mallory McMorrow": 0 }, "current_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": null, "Haley Stevens": null, "Mallory McMorrow": null }, "estimated_remaining_votes": 5156.92134952329, "estimated_final_votes": 5156.92134952329, "turnout_disagreement_votes": 0.0, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 49.53409718759454, "Haley Stevens": 46.64825171952558, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.817651092879882 }, "remaining_sources": [ { "model": "v3", "remaining_votes": 5156.92134952329, "weight": 0.1342208488636769 }, { "model": "histgeo", "remaining_votes": 5156.92134952329, "weight": 0.05994207394479305 }, { "model": "latent", "remaining_votes": 5156.92134952329, "weight": 0.07672787409296966 } ], "share_sources": [ { "model": "v0", "weight": 0.03630604611298715, "source": "statewide raw" }, { "model": "v3", "weight": 0.15004242351696637, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "market", "weight": 0.0786646379365536, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "histgeo", "weight": 0.06573339512824654, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "latent", "weight": 0.08483492578364633, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "batchbias", "weight": 0.020512372723621893, "source": "statewide fallback" } ], "candidate_benchmarks": { "Abdul El-Sayed": { "opponent": "Haley Stevens", "expected_remaining_share_points": 49.53409718759454, "expected_final_county_share_points": 49.53409718759453, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.299895018238345, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.299895018238345, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.299895018238345, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 48.299895018238345, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": -398.17114233904005, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": false }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.299895018238345, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.299895018238345, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.299895018238345, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 48.299895018238345, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.95627723054584, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.95627723054584, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.95627723054583, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.024044322225107804, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999973, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 49.61240402426675, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 49.61240402426675, "required_final_county_share_points": 49.61240402426675, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.003259695682198218, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.9999999999999996, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": 1.2342021693561946, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "ABOVE", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.0042006033089325625, "criticality_score": 0.0034034969417723127, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -477.5890154441389, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -21.263528848949505, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 217.26588889484682, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Haley Stevens": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 46.64825171952558, "expected_final_county_share_points": 46.648251719525575, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 47.88245388888177, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 47.88245388888177, "required_final_county_share_points": 47.88245388888177, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 47.88245388888177, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 494.3534912461601, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 47.88245388888177, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 47.88245388888177, "required_final_county_share_points": 47.88245388888177, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 47.88245388888177, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.53908515549113, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.53908515549113, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.53908515549112, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.07865391656842785, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.999999999999999, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 49.195959090759175, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 49.195959090759175, "required_final_county_share_points": 49.195959090759175, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.10597932088248406, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -1.2342021693561875, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.0042006033089325625, "criticality_score": 0.003403496941772332, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 573.771364351259, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1030.0968509464483, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1268.6262686902448, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Mallory McMorrow": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 3.817651092879882, "expected_final_county_share_points": 3.8176510928798817, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 33.736001006196595, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 33.736001006196595, "required_final_county_share_points": 33.736001006196595, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 33.736001006196595, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 10783.245621876225, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 33.736001006196595, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 33.736001006196595, "required_final_county_share_points": 33.736001006196595, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 33.736001006196595, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 34.397947057536555, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 34.397947057536555, "required_final_county_share_points": 34.397947057536555, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.159018308558073, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999906, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 35.059720483369155, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 35.059720483369155, "required_final_county_share_points": 35.059720483369155, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.213613509684069, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.999999999999993, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -29.918349913316714, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "WELL BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.0042006033089325625, "criticality_score": 0.00014040223879669466, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 530.9407637246132, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 987.2662503198026, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1225.7956680635991, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } } } }, { "cid": "fips:26093", "county": "Livingston", "fips": "26093", "reporting": 80.73, "current_votes": 21490, "current_candidate_votes": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 10902, "Haley Stevens": 9766, "Mallory McMorrow": 822 }, "current_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 50.73057235923686, "Haley Stevens": 45.44439274080968, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.825034899953467 }, "estimated_remaining_votes": 5033.181154902108, "estimated_final_votes": 26523.181154902108, "turnout_disagreement_votes": 0.0, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 50.37111830190255, "Haley Stevens": 45.82128265732378, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.8075990407736717 }, "remaining_sources": [ { "model": "v3", "remaining_votes": 5033.181154902108, "weight": 0.1342208488636769 }, { "model": "histgeo", "remaining_votes": 5033.181154902108, "weight": 0.05994207394479305 }, { "model": "latent", "remaining_votes": 5033.181154902108, "weight": 0.07672787409296966 }, { "model": "batchbias", "remaining_votes": 5033.181154902108, "weight": 0.045123489075924846 } ], "share_sources": [ { "model": "v0", "weight": 0.03630604611298715, "source": "statewide raw" }, { "model": "v1", "weight": 0.14599140026529184, "source": "county live" }, { "model": "v3", "weight": 0.15004242351696637, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "market", "weight": 0.0786646379365536, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "histgeo", "weight": 0.06573339512824654, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "latent", "weight": 0.08483492578364633, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "batchbias", "weight": 0.04883898267529022, "source": "county remaining" } ], "candidate_benchmarks": { "Abdul El-Sayed": { "opponent": "Haley Stevens", "expected_remaining_share_points": 50.37111830190255, "expected_final_county_share_points": 50.66236042881788, "current_county_share_points": 50.73057235923686, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 49.137891042489976, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 49.137891042489976, "required_final_county_share_points": 50.42833660771075, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 49.137891042489976, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": -408.34090436385964, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": false }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 49.137891042489976, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 49.137891042489976, "required_final_county_share_points": 50.42833660771075, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 49.137891042489976, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 49.79389121493866, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 49.79389121493866, "required_final_county_share_points": 50.55282271992699, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.024044322225107804, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999973, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 50.44932631704384, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 50.44932631704384, "required_final_county_share_points": 50.67720160136322, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.003259695682198218, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.9999999999999996, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": 1.2332272594125726, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "ABOVE", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.0040998099410015695, "criticality_score": 0.0033244561452156402, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -489.71125697883093, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -22.1670594364111, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 222.22657731045996, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Haley Stevens": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 45.82128265732378, "expected_final_county_share_points": 45.51591339341137, "current_county_share_points": 45.44439274080968, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 47.05450991673635, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 47.05450991673635, "required_final_county_share_points": 45.749937214518496, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 47.05450991673635, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 504.5333053230859, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 47.05450991673635, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 47.05450991673635, "required_final_county_share_points": 45.749937214518496, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 47.05450991673635, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 47.711069376303136, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 47.711069376303136, "required_final_county_share_points": 45.87452946005891, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.07865391656842785, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.999999999999999, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.368182307201266, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.368182307201266, "required_final_county_share_points": 45.999226735288566, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.10597932088248406, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -1.2332272594125726, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.0040998099410015695, "criticality_score": 0.0033244561452156402, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 585.9036579380572, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1053.447855480477, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1297.841492227348, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Mallory McMorrow": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 3.8075990407736717, "expected_final_county_share_points": 3.8217261777707567, "current_county_share_points": 3.825034899953467, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 34.01402356046048, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 34.01402356046048, "required_final_county_share_points": 9.553859354464047, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 34.01402356046048, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 11048.246598427895, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 34.01402356046048, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 34.01402356046048, "required_final_county_share_points": 9.553859354464047, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 34.01402356046048, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 34.6897929092323, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 34.6897929092323, "required_final_county_share_points": 9.682096971642563, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.159018308558073, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999906, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 35.36571208511669, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 35.36571208511669, "required_final_county_share_points": 9.810363020817796, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.213613509684069, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.999999999999993, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -30.20642451968681, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "WELL BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.0040998099410015695, "criticality_score": 0.0001357264226465979, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 543.8899743215071, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1011.4341718639268, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1255.827808610798, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } } } }, { "cid": "26093", "county": "26093", "fips": null, "reporting": 0.0, "current_votes": 0, "current_candidate_votes": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 0, "Haley Stevens": 0, "Mallory McMorrow": 0 }, "current_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": null, "Haley Stevens": null, "Mallory McMorrow": null }, "estimated_remaining_votes": 5033.181154902108, "estimated_final_votes": 5033.181154902108, "turnout_disagreement_votes": 0.0, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 49.89261988260084, "Haley Stevens": 46.35073676032594, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.7566433570732234 }, "remaining_sources": [ { "model": "market", "remaining_votes": 5033.181154902108, "weight": 0.1780093144963334 } ], "share_sources": [ { "model": "v0", "weight": 0.03630604611298715, "source": "statewide raw" }, { "model": "v3", "weight": 0.06301781787712588, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "market", "weight": 0.18729675699179427, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "histgeo", "weight": 0.02760802595386354, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "latent", "weight": 0.03563066882913146, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "batchbias", "weight": 0.020512372723621893, "source": "statewide fallback" } ], "candidate_benchmarks": { "Abdul El-Sayed": { "opponent": "Haley Stevens", "expected_remaining_share_points": 49.89261988260084, "expected_final_county_share_points": 49.89261988260085, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.65798061049089, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.65798061049089, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.65798061049089, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 48.65798061049089, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": -408.81940278316034, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": false }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.65798061049089, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.65798061049089, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.65798061049089, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 48.65798061049089, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 49.314648965464855, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 49.314648965464855, "required_final_county_share_points": 49.314648965464855, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.024044322225107804, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999973, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 49.97093990702525, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 49.97093990702525, "required_final_county_share_points": 49.97093990702525, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.003259695682198218, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.9999999999999996, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": 1.234639272109952, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "ABOVE", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.0040998099410015695, "criticality_score": 0.003320654083840334, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -490.1897553981326, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -22.64555785571281, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 221.74807889115823, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Haley Stevens": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 46.35073676032594, "expected_final_county_share_points": 46.350736760325944, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 47.5853760324359, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 47.5853760324359, "required_final_county_share_points": 47.585376032435896, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 47.5853760324359, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 505.0627594260872, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 47.5853760324359, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 47.5853760324359, "required_final_county_share_points": 47.585376032435896, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 47.5853760324359, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.24241560836144, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.24241560836144, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.24241560836144, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.07865391656842785, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.999999999999999, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.89982018680944, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.89982018680944, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.89982018680944, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.10597932088248406, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -1.2346392721099662, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.0040998099410015695, "criticality_score": 0.003320654083840296, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 586.4331120410594, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1053.9773095834792, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1298.37094633035, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Mallory McMorrow": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 3.7566433570732234, "expected_final_county_share_points": 3.7566433570732234, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 33.63235898498036, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 33.63235898498036, "required_final_county_share_points": 33.63235898498036, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 33.63235898498036, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 11048.195642744196, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 33.63235898498036, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 33.63235898498036, "required_final_county_share_points": 33.63235898498036, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 33.63235898498036, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 34.302227148997034, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 34.302227148997034, "required_final_county_share_points": 34.302227148997034, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.159018308558073, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999906, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 34.9723095336476, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 34.9723095336476, "required_final_county_share_points": 34.9723095336476, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.213613509684069, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.999999999999993, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -29.875715627907134, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "WELL BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.0040998099410015695, "criticality_score": 0.0001372288447267153, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 543.8390186378067, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1011.3832161802264, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1255.7768529270975, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } } } }, { "cid": "fips:26155", "county": "Shiawassee", "fips": "26155", "reporting": 44.43, "current_votes": 3588, "current_candidate_votes": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 1423, "Haley Stevens": 1922, "Mallory McMorrow": 243 }, "current_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 39.659977703455965, "Haley Stevens": 53.567447045707915, "Mallory McMorrow": 6.77257525083612 }, "estimated_remaining_votes": 4949.64208510183, "estimated_final_votes": 8537.64208510183, "turnout_disagreement_votes": 0.0, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 43.429889037955434, "Haley Stevens": 50.95457332924801, "Mallory McMorrow": 5.61553763279655 }, "remaining_sources": [ { "model": "v3", "remaining_votes": 4949.64208510183, "weight": 0.1342208488636769 }, { "model": "histgeo", "remaining_votes": 4949.64208510183, "weight": 0.05994207394479305 }, { "model": "latent", "remaining_votes": 4949.64208510183, "weight": 0.07672787409296966 }, { "model": "batchbias", "remaining_votes": 4949.64208510183, "weight": 0.045123489075924846 } ], "share_sources": [ { "model": "v0", "weight": 0.03630604611298715, "source": "statewide raw" }, { "model": "v1", "weight": 0.14599140026529184, "source": "county live" }, { "model": "v3", "weight": 0.15004242351696637, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "market", "weight": 0.0786646379365536, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "histgeo", "weight": 0.06573339512824654, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "latent", "weight": 0.08483492578364633, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "batchbias", "weight": 0.04883898267529022, "source": "county remaining" } ], "candidate_benchmarks": { "Abdul El-Sayed": { "opponent": "Haley Stevens", "expected_remaining_share_points": 43.429889037955434, "expected_final_county_share_points": 41.84555911016568, "current_county_share_points": 39.659977703455965, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 42.22875609709287, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 42.22875609709287, "required_final_county_share_points": 41.14921015402125, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 42.22875609709287, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": -423.0241834610745, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": false }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 42.22875609709287, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 42.22875609709287, "required_final_county_share_points": 41.14921015402125, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 42.22875609709287, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 42.866709368289044, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 42.866709368289044, "required_final_county_share_points": 41.519059384987614, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.024044322225107804, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999973, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 43.506326188737916, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 43.506326188737916, "required_final_county_share_points": 41.889873047738504, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.003259695682198218, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.9999999999999996, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": 1.2011329408625642, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "ABOVE", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.004031762656731734, "criticality_score": 0.0033566331582217885, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -505.76788862354414, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -30.33257356562264, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 218.1858901339675, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Haley Stevens": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 50.95457332924801, "expected_final_county_share_points": 52.05265062051997, "current_county_share_points": 53.567447045707915, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 52.15570627011058, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 52.15570627011058, "required_final_county_share_points": 52.74899957666441, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 52.15570627011058, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 517.4086458282779, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 52.15570627011058, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 52.15570627011058, "required_final_county_share_points": 52.74899957666441, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 52.15570627011058, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 52.791996171337395, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 52.791996171337395, "required_final_county_share_points": 53.11788447978459, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.07865391656842785, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.999999999999999, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 53.42662290267446, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 53.42662290267446, "required_final_county_share_points": 53.48580517105342, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.10597932088248406, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -1.2011329408625713, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.004031762656731734, "criticality_score": 0.003356633158221769, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 600.1523509907475, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1075.587666048669, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1324.1061297482593, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Mallory McMorrow": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 5.61553763279655, "expected_final_county_share_points": 6.101790269314338, "current_county_share_points": 6.77257525083612, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 36.42227747418374, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 36.42227747418374, "required_final_county_share_points": 23.96179593642876, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 36.42227747418374, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 11236.460370939063, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 36.42227747418374, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 36.42227747418374, "required_final_county_share_points": 23.96179593642876, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 36.42227747418374, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 36.91962544996733, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 36.91962544996733, "required_final_county_share_points": 24.25013016821558, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.159018308558073, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999906, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 37.41105938436123, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 37.41105938436123, "required_final_county_share_points": 24.53503577323829, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.213613509684069, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.999999999999993, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -30.806739841387188, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "WELL BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.004031762656731734, "criticality_score": 0.00013087274659668072, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 554.8133152942961, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1030.2486303522176, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1278.7670940518078, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } } } }, { "cid": "26155", "county": "26155", "fips": null, "reporting": 0.0, "current_votes": 0, "current_candidate_votes": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 0, "Haley Stevens": 0, "Mallory McMorrow": 0 }, "current_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": null, "Haley Stevens": null, "Mallory McMorrow": null }, "estimated_remaining_votes": 4949.64208510183, "estimated_final_votes": 4949.64208510183, "turnout_disagreement_votes": 0.0, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 45.55019957020254, "Haley Stevens": 49.57893414963119, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.870866280166271 }, "remaining_sources": [ { "model": "market", "remaining_votes": 4949.64208510183, "weight": 0.1780093144963334 } ], "share_sources": [ { "model": "v0", "weight": 0.03630604611298715, "source": "statewide raw" }, { "model": "v3", "weight": 0.06301781787712588, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "market", "weight": 0.18729675699179427, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "histgeo", "weight": 0.02760802595386354, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "latent", "weight": 0.03563066882913146, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "batchbias", "weight": 0.020512372723621893, "source": "statewide fallback" } ], "candidate_benchmarks": { "Abdul El-Sayed": { "opponent": "Haley Stevens", "expected_remaining_share_points": 45.55019957020254, "expected_final_county_share_points": 45.55019957020254, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 44.33286605644045, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 44.33286605644045, "required_final_county_share_points": 44.332866056440444, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 44.33286605644045, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": -420.90387292882684, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": false }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 44.33286605644045, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 44.33286605644045, "required_final_county_share_points": 44.332866056440444, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 44.33286605644045, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 44.97971422163487, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 44.97971422163487, "required_final_county_share_points": 44.97971422163488, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.024044322225107804, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999973, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 45.62758880968153, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 45.62758880968153, "required_final_county_share_points": 45.62758880968153, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.003259695682198218, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.9999999999999996, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": 1.2173335137620853, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "ABOVE", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.004031762656731734, "criticality_score": 0.0033119622610831186, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -503.647578091297, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -28.212263033375535, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 220.30620066621458, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Haley Stevens": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 49.57893414963119, "expected_final_county_share_points": 49.57893414963119, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 50.79626766339326, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 50.79626766339326, "required_final_county_share_points": 50.79626766339326, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 50.79626766339326, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 516.0330066486606, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 50.79626766339326, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 50.79626766339326, "required_final_county_share_points": 50.79626766339326, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 50.79626766339326, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 51.44208544315815, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 51.44208544315815, "required_final_county_share_points": 51.44208544315815, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.07865391656842785, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.999999999999999, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 52.08686889657379, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 52.08686889657379, "required_final_county_share_points": 52.08686889657379, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.10597932088248406, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -1.217333513762071, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.004031762656731734, "criticality_score": 0.003311962261083157, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 598.7767118111308, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1074.2120268690521, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1322.7304905686424, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Mallory McMorrow": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 4.870866280166271, "expected_final_county_share_points": 4.870866280166271, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 35.531045222648785, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 35.531045222648785, "required_final_county_share_points": 35.531045222648785, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 35.531045222648785, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 11235.715699586435, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 35.531045222648785, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 35.531045222648785, "required_final_county_share_points": 35.531045222648785, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 35.531045222648785, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 36.08886038573337, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 36.08886038573337, "required_final_county_share_points": 36.08886038573337, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.159018308558073, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999906, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 36.642256909740425, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 36.642256909740425, "required_final_county_share_points": 36.642256909740425, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.213613509684069, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.999999999999993, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -30.660178942482514, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "WELL BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.004031762656731734, "criticality_score": 0.00013149834070750818, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 554.0686439416659, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1029.5039589995872, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1278.0224226991775, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } } } }, { "cid": "26101", "county": "26101", "fips": null, "reporting": 0.0, "current_votes": 0, "current_candidate_votes": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 0, "Haley Stevens": 0, "Mallory McMorrow": 0 }, "current_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": null, "Haley Stevens": null, "Mallory McMorrow": null }, "estimated_remaining_votes": 3791.242696224088, "estimated_final_votes": 3791.242696224088, "turnout_disagreement_votes": 0.0, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 48.27100217759222, "Haley Stevens": 47.573041127080906, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.155956695326873 }, "remaining_sources": [ { "model": "market", "remaining_votes": 3791.242696224088, "weight": 0.1780093144963334 } ], "share_sources": [ { "model": "v0", "weight": 0.03630604611298715, "source": "statewide raw" }, { "model": "v3", "weight": 0.06301781787712588, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "market", "weight": 0.18729675699179427, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "histgeo", "weight": 0.02760802595386354, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "latent", "weight": 0.03563066882913146, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "batchbias", "weight": 0.020512372723621893, "source": "statewide fallback" } ], "candidate_benchmarks": { "Abdul El-Sayed": { "opponent": "Haley Stevens", "expected_remaining_share_points": 48.27100217759222, "expected_final_county_share_points": 48.27100217759222, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 47.04081622790371, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 47.04081622790371, "required_final_county_share_points": 47.04081622790371, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 47.04081622790371, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": -560.7062891753956, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": false }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 47.04081622790371, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 47.04081622790371, "required_final_county_share_points": 47.04081622790371, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 47.04081622790371, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 47.694883782522766, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 47.694883782522766, "required_final_county_share_points": 47.694883782522766, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.024044322225107804, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999973, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.34910264295541, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.34910264295541, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.34910264295541, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.003259695682198218, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.9999999999999996, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": 1.2301859496885115, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "ABOVE", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.0030881810164115615, "criticality_score": 0.002510336764286328, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -668.7320100708972, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -48.029292595686556, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 276.42301642621965, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Haley Stevens": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 47.573041127080906, "expected_final_county_share_points": 47.573041127080906, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.8032270767694, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.8032270767694, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.8032270767694, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 48.8032270767694, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 656.5503324800687, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.8032270767694, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.8032270767694, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.8032270767694, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 48.8032270767694, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 49.45713689360831, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 49.45713689360831, "required_final_county_share_points": 49.45713689360831, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.07865391656842785, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.999999999999999, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 50.11088253540306, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 50.11088253540306, "required_final_county_share_points": 50.11088253540306, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.10597932088248406, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -1.2301859496884973, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.0030881810164115615, "criticality_score": 0.002510336764286357, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 764.5760533755704, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1385.2787708507808, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1709.7310798726871, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Mallory McMorrow": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 4.155956695326873, "expected_final_county_share_points": 4.155956695326873, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 34.480137780876035, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 34.480137780876035, "required_final_county_share_points": 34.480137780876035, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 34.480137780876035, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 14666.54153637479, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 34.480137780876035, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 34.480137780876035, "required_final_county_share_points": 34.480137780876035, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 34.480137780876035, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 35.10919125118339, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 35.10919125118339, "required_final_county_share_points": 35.10919125118339, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.159018308558073, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999906, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 35.73638403953086, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 35.73638403953086, "required_final_county_share_points": 35.73638403953086, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.213613509684069, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.999999999999993, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -30.324181085549164, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "WELL BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.0030881810164115615, "criticality_score": 0.00010183889245679313, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 721.1589689438163, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1341.861686419027, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1666.3139954409332, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } } } }, { "cid": "fips:26101", "county": "Manistee", "fips": "26101", "reporting": 0.0, "current_votes": 0, "current_candidate_votes": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 0, "Haley Stevens": 0, "Mallory McMorrow": 0 }, "current_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": null, "Haley Stevens": null, "Mallory McMorrow": null }, "estimated_remaining_votes": 3791.2426962240875, "estimated_final_votes": 3791.2426962240875, "turnout_disagreement_votes": 4.547473508864641e-13, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 49.28451540697091, "Haley Stevens": 46.86106919090173, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.854415402127373 }, "remaining_sources": [ { "model": "v3", "remaining_votes": 3791.242696224088, "weight": 0.1342208488636769 }, { "model": "histgeo", "remaining_votes": 3791.242696224088, "weight": 0.05994207394479305 }, { "model": "latent", "remaining_votes": 3791.242696224088, "weight": 0.07672787409296966 }, { "model": "batchbias", "remaining_votes": 3791.242696224088, "weight": 0.045123489075924846 } ], "share_sources": [ { "model": "v0", "weight": 0.03630604611298715, "source": "statewide raw" }, { "model": "v3", "weight": 0.15004242351696637, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "market", "weight": 0.0786646379365536, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "histgeo", "weight": 0.06573339512824654, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "latent", "weight": 0.08483492578364633, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "batchbias", "weight": 0.04883898267529022, "source": "county remaining" } ], "candidate_benchmarks": { "Abdul El-Sayed": { "opponent": "Haley Stevens", "expected_remaining_share_points": 49.28451540697091, "expected_final_county_share_points": 49.284515406970904, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.05060996504737, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.05060996504737, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.05060996504737, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 48.05060996504737, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": -559.6927759460161, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": false }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.05060996504737, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.05060996504737, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.05060996504737, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 48.05060996504737, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.70679650829938, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.70679650829938, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.70679650829938, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.024044322225107804, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999973, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 49.36281367778406, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 49.36281367778406, "required_final_county_share_points": 49.36281367778406, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.003259695682198218, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.9999999999999996, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": 1.2339054419235396, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "ABOVE", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.003088181016411561, "criticality_score": 0.002502769589537902, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -667.7184968415186, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -47.01577936630788, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 277.4365296555984, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Haley Stevens": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 46.86106919090173, "expected_final_county_share_points": 46.86106919090173, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.09497463282526, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.09497463282526, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.09497463282526, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 48.09497463282526, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 655.8383605438887, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.09497463282526, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.09497463282526, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.09497463282526, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 48.09497463282526, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.75132410521113, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.75132410521113, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.75132410521113, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.07865391656842785, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.999999999999999, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 49.407830044085294, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 49.407830044085294, "required_final_county_share_points": 49.407830044085294, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.10597932088248406, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -1.2339054419235325, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.003088181016411561, "criticality_score": 0.002502769589537917, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 763.8640814393913, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1384.5667989146018, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1709.0191079365081, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Mallory McMorrow": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 3.854415402127373, "expected_final_county_share_points": 3.854415402127373, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 33.78188463454098, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 33.78188463454098, "required_final_county_share_points": 33.78188463454098, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 33.78188463454098, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 14666.23999508159, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 33.78188463454098, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 33.78188463454098, "required_final_county_share_points": 33.78188463454098, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 33.78188463454098, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 34.43848971931931, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 34.43848971931931, "required_final_county_share_points": 34.43848971931931, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.159018308558073, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999906, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 35.09468575846744, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 35.09468575846744, "required_final_county_share_points": 35.09468575846744, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.213613509684069, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.999999999999993, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -29.927469232413607, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "WELL BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.003088181016411561, "criticality_score": 0.00010318884608748802, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 720.857427650617, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1341.5601451258276, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1666.012454147734, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } } } }, { "cid": "fips:26061", "county": "Houghton", "fips": "26061", "reporting": 25.489999999999995, "current_votes": 1059, "current_candidate_votes": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 530, "Haley Stevens": 459, "Mallory McMorrow": 70 }, "current_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 50.04721435316336, "Haley Stevens": 43.342776203966004, "Mallory McMorrow": 6.610009442870633 }, "estimated_remaining_votes": 3345.74264210606, "estimated_final_votes": 4404.74264210606, "turnout_disagreement_votes": 0.0, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 49.7863310825937, "Haley Stevens": 44.92337401998788, "Mallory McMorrow": 5.290294897418427 }, "remaining_sources": [ { "model": "v3", "remaining_votes": 3345.74264210606, "weight": 0.1342208488636769 }, { "model": "histgeo", "remaining_votes": 3345.74264210606, "weight": 0.05994207394479305 }, { "model": "latent", "remaining_votes": 3345.74264210606, "weight": 0.07672787409296966 }, { "model": "batchbias", "remaining_votes": 3345.74264210606, "weight": 0.045123489075924846 } ], "share_sources": [ { "model": "v0", "weight": 0.03630604611298715, "source": "statewide raw" }, { "model": "v1", "weight": 0.14599140026529184, "source": "county live" }, { "model": "v3", "weight": 0.15004242351696637, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "market", "weight": 0.0786646379365536, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "histgeo", "weight": 0.06573339512824654, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "latent", "weight": 0.08483492578364633, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "batchbias", "weight": 0.04883898267529022, "source": "county remaining" } ], "candidate_benchmarks": { "Abdul El-Sayed": { "opponent": "Haley Stevens", "expected_remaining_share_points": 49.7863310825937, "expected_final_county_share_points": 49.84905333585142, "current_county_share_points": 50.04721435316336, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.57247215638126, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.57247215638126, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.92703361735359, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 48.57247215638126, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": -640.2789115192775, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": false }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.57247215638126, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.57247215638126, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.92703361735359, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 48.57247215638126, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 49.21820101094869, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 49.21820101094869, "required_final_county_share_points": 49.41751461465689, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.024044322225107804, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999973, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 49.86330229641139, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 49.86330229641139, "required_final_county_share_points": 49.90751892469712, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.003259695682198218, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.9999999999999996, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": 1.2138589262124384, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "ABOVE", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.002725296094455012, "criticality_score": 0.0022451505983143018, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -762.6887227806749, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -59.33676302771722, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 308.3177694434474, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Haley Stevens": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 44.92337401998788, "expected_final_county_share_points": 44.54336246808327, "current_county_share_points": 43.342776203966004, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 46.13723294620032, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 46.13723294620032, "required_final_county_share_points": 45.4653821865811, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 46.13723294620032, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 734.988616621859, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 46.13723294620032, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 46.13723294620032, "required_final_county_share_points": 45.4653821865811, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 46.13723294620032, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 46.78358387273388, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 46.78358387273388, "required_final_county_share_points": 45.95633569564561, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.07865391656842785, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.999999999999999, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 47.430551339733086, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 47.430551339733086, "required_final_county_share_points": 46.447757514869004, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.10597932088248406, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -1.2138589262124384, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.002725296094455012, "criticality_score": 0.0022451505983143018, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 857.3984278832565, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1560.750387636214, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1928.404920107379, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Mallory McMorrow": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 5.290294897418427, "expected_final_county_share_points": 5.607584196065318, "current_county_share_points": 6.610009442870633, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 38.73918689798017, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 38.73918689798017, "required_final_county_share_points": 31.014604172145237, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 38.73918689798017, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 16620.035714524045, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 38.73918689798017, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 38.73918689798017, "required_final_county_share_points": 31.014604172145237, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 38.73918689798017, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 39.350124183799515, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 39.350124183799515, "required_final_county_share_points": 31.47865828265758, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.159018308558073, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999906, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 39.956306617179415, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 39.956306617179415, "required_final_county_share_points": 31.939100715063805, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.213613509684069, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.999999999999993, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -33.44889200056174, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "WELL BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.002725296094455012, "criticality_score": 8.147642362590794e-05, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 817.7653487606871, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1521.1173085136445, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1888.7718409848094, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } } } }, { "cid": "26061", "county": "26061", "fips": null, "reporting": 0.0, "current_votes": 0, "current_candidate_votes": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 0, "Haley Stevens": 0, "Mallory McMorrow": 0 }, "current_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": null, "Haley Stevens": null, "Mallory McMorrow": null }, "estimated_remaining_votes": 3345.74264210606, "estimated_final_votes": 3345.74264210606, "turnout_disagreement_votes": 0.0, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 49.31246004324791, "Haley Stevens": 45.65098547155028, "Mallory McMorrow": 5.0365544852018145 }, "remaining_sources": [ { "model": "market", "remaining_votes": 3345.74264210606, "weight": 0.1780093144963334 } ], "share_sources": [ { "model": "v0", "weight": 0.03630604611298715, "source": "statewide raw" }, { "model": "v3", "weight": 0.06301781787712588, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "market", "weight": 0.18729675699179427, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "histgeo", "weight": 0.02760802595386354, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "latent", "weight": 0.03563066882913146, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "batchbias", "weight": 0.020512372723621893, "source": "statewide fallback" } ], "candidate_benchmarks": { "Abdul El-Sayed": { "opponent": "Haley Stevens", "expected_remaining_share_points": 49.31246004324791, "expected_final_county_share_points": 49.31246004324791, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.09434629369606, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.09434629369606, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.09434629369606, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 48.09434629369606, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": -640.7527825586218, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": false }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.09434629369606, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.09434629369606, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.09434629369606, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 48.09434629369606, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.74223888666137, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.74223888666137, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.74223888666137, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.024044322225107804, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999973, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 49.38972805622101, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 49.38972805622101, "required_final_county_share_points": 49.38972805622101, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.003259695682198218, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.9999999999999996, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": 1.218113749551847, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "ABOVE", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.002725296094455012, "criticality_score": 0.0022373083757224383, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -763.1625938200207, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -59.810634067063006, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 307.84389840410165, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Haley Stevens": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 45.65098547155028, "expected_final_county_share_points": 45.650985471550285, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 46.869099221102125, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 46.869099221102125, "required_final_county_share_points": 46.869099221102125, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 46.869099221102125, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 735.7162280734199, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 46.869099221102125, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 46.869099221102125, "required_final_county_share_points": 46.869099221102125, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 46.869099221102125, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 47.51738918315602, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 47.51738918315602, "required_final_county_share_points": 47.51738918315602, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.07865391656842785, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.999999999999999, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.16607043322308, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.16607043322308, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.166070433223084, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.10597932088248406, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -1.218113749551847, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.002725296094455012, "criticality_score": 0.0022373083757224383, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 858.1260393348189, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1561.4779990877764, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1929.1325315589413, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Mallory McMorrow": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 5.0365544852018145, "expected_final_county_share_points": 5.0365544852018145, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 37.774917004629025, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 37.774917004629025, "required_final_county_share_points": 37.774917004629025, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 37.774917004629025, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 16619.78197411183, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 37.774917004629025, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 37.774917004629025, "required_final_county_share_points": 37.774917004629025, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 37.774917004629025, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 38.387639024908296, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 38.387639024908296, "required_final_county_share_points": 38.38763902490829, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.159018308558073, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999906, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 38.99612888596587, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 38.99612888596587, "required_final_county_share_points": 38.99612888596587, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.213613509684069, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.999999999999993, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -32.73836251942721, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "WELL BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.002725296094455012, "criticality_score": 8.324472834699044e-05, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 817.5116083484704, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1520.863568101428, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1888.5181005725929, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } } } }, { "cid": "26009", "county": "26009", "fips": null, "reporting": 0.0, "current_votes": 0, "current_candidate_votes": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 0, "Haley Stevens": 0, "Mallory McMorrow": 0 }, "current_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": null, "Haley Stevens": null, "Mallory McMorrow": null }, "estimated_remaining_votes": 3308.801867612957, "estimated_final_votes": 3308.801867612957, "turnout_disagreement_votes": 0.0, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 48.27100217759222, "Haley Stevens": 47.573041127080906, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.155956695326873 }, "remaining_sources": [ { "model": "market", "remaining_votes": 3308.801867612957, "weight": 0.1780093144963334 } ], "share_sources": [ { "model": "v0", "weight": 0.03630604611298715, "source": "statewide raw" }, { "model": "v3", "weight": 0.06301781787712588, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "market", "weight": 0.18729675699179427, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "histgeo", "weight": 0.02760802595386354, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "latent", "weight": 0.03563066882913146, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "batchbias", "weight": 0.020512372723621893, "source": "statewide fallback" } ], "candidate_benchmarks": { "Abdul El-Sayed": { "opponent": "Haley Stevens", "expected_remaining_share_points": 48.27100217759222, "expected_final_county_share_points": 48.27100217759222, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 47.04081622790371, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 47.04081622790371, "required_final_county_share_points": 47.04081622790371, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 47.04081622790371, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": -649.498402091374, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": false }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 47.04081622790371, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 47.04081622790371, "required_final_county_share_points": 47.04081622790371, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 47.04081622790371, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 47.694883782522766, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 47.694883782522766, "required_final_county_share_points": 47.694883782522766, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.024044322225107804, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999973, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.34910264295541, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.34910264295541, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.3491026429554, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.003259695682198218, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.9999999999999996, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": 1.2301859496885115, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "ABOVE", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.00269520575003186, "criticality_score": 0.0021908929708669635, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -773.2748449658094, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -62.07038537330685, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 309.6887879070648, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Haley Stevens": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 47.573041127080906, "expected_final_county_share_points": 47.573041127080906, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.8032270767694, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.8032270767694, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.803227076769396, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 48.8032270767694, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 745.3424453960473, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.8032270767694, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.8032270767694, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.803227076769396, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 48.8032270767694, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 49.45713689360831, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 49.45713689360831, "required_final_county_share_points": 49.45713689360831, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.07865391656842785, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.999999999999999, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 50.11088253540306, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 50.11088253540306, "required_final_county_share_points": 50.11088253540306, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.10597932088248406, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -1.2301859496884973, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.00269520575003186, "criticality_score": 0.002190892970866989, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 869.1188882704826, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1580.3233478629847, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1952.0825211433566, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Mallory McMorrow": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 4.155956695326873, "expected_final_county_share_points": 4.155956695326873, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 34.480137780876035, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 34.480137780876035, "required_final_county_share_points": 34.480137780876035, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 34.480137780876035, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 16804.39497441688, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 34.480137780876035, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 34.480137780876035, "required_final_county_share_points": 34.480137780876035, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 34.480137780876035, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 35.10919125118339, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 35.10919125118339, "required_final_county_share_points": 35.10919125118339, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.159018308558073, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999906, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 35.73638403953086, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 35.73638403953086, "required_final_county_share_points": 35.73638403953086, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.213613509684069, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.999999999999993, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -30.324181085549164, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "WELL BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.00269520575003186, "criticality_score": 8.887975383171178e-05, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 825.7018038387284, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1536.9062634312309, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1908.6654367116028, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } } } }, { "cid": "fips:26009", "county": "Antrim", "fips": "26009", "reporting": 0.0, "current_votes": 0, "current_candidate_votes": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 0, "Haley Stevens": 0, "Mallory McMorrow": 0 }, "current_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": null, "Haley Stevens": null, "Mallory McMorrow": null }, "estimated_remaining_votes": 3308.801867612957, "estimated_final_votes": 3308.801867612957, "turnout_disagreement_votes": 0.0, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 49.37396011422278, "Haley Stevens": 46.785796448893414, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.8402434368838043 }, "remaining_sources": [ { "model": "v3", "remaining_votes": 3308.801867612957, "weight": 0.1342208488636769 }, { "model": "histgeo", "remaining_votes": 3308.801867612957, "weight": 0.05994207394479305 }, { "model": "latent", "remaining_votes": 3308.801867612957, "weight": 0.07672787409296966 }, { "model": "batchbias", "remaining_votes": 3308.801867612957, "weight": 0.045123489075924846 } ], "share_sources": [ { "model": "v0", "weight": 0.03630604611298715, "source": "statewide raw" }, { "model": "v3", "weight": 0.15004242351696637, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "market", "weight": 0.0786646379365536, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "histgeo", "weight": 0.06573339512824654, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "latent", "weight": 0.08483492578364633, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "batchbias", "weight": 0.04883898267529022, "source": "county remaining" } ], "candidate_benchmarks": { "Abdul El-Sayed": { "opponent": "Haley Stevens", "expected_remaining_share_points": 49.37396011422278, "expected_final_county_share_points": 49.37396011422278, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.13992863163865, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.13992863163865, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.13992863163864, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 48.13992863163865, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": -648.3954441547453, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": false }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.13992863163865, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.13992863163865, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.13992863163864, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 48.13992863163865, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.796195691789165, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.796195691789165, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.796195691789165, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.024044322225107804, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999973, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 49.45226272727665, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 49.45226272727665, "required_final_county_share_points": 49.45226272727665, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.003259695682198218, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.9999999999999996, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": 1.234031482584136, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "ABOVE", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.00269520575003186, "criticality_score": 0.002184065632092252, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -772.1718870291788, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -60.96742743667629, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 310.79174584369537, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Haley Stevens": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 46.785796448893414, "expected_final_county_share_points": 46.785796448893414, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.01982793147754, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.01982793147754, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.01982793147754, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 48.01982793147754, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 744.5552007178616, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.01982793147754, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.01982793147754, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.01982793147754, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 48.01982793147754, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.67628859629012, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.67628859629012, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.67628859629012, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.07865391656842785, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.999999999999999, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 49.332936426552436, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 49.332936426552436, "required_final_county_share_points": 49.332936426552436, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.10597932088248406, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -1.234031482584129, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.00269520575003186, "criticality_score": 0.0021840656320922646, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 868.331643592295, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1579.5361031847974, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1951.2952764651693, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Mallory McMorrow": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 3.8402434368838043, "expected_final_county_share_points": 3.840243436883804, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 33.7619486973838, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 33.7619486973838, "required_final_county_share_points": 33.7619486973838, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 33.7619486973838, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 16804.07926115844, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 33.7619486973838, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 33.7619486973838, "required_final_county_share_points": 33.7619486973838, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 33.7619486973838, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 34.42050589917526, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 34.42050589917526, "required_final_county_share_points": 34.42050589917526, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.159018308558073, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999906, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 35.07874229361935, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 35.07874229361935, "required_final_county_share_points": 35.07874229361935, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.213613509684069, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.999999999999993, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -29.921705260499998, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "WELL BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.00269520575003186, "criticality_score": 9.007527233382095e-05, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 825.3860905802854, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1536.5905501727877, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1908.3497234531596, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } } } }, { "cid": "26123", "county": "26123", "fips": null, "reporting": 0.0, "current_votes": 0, "current_candidate_votes": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 0, "Haley Stevens": 0, "Mallory McMorrow": 0 }, "current_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": null, "Haley Stevens": null, "Mallory McMorrow": null }, "estimated_remaining_votes": 3200.745116245081, "estimated_final_votes": 3200.745116245081, "turnout_disagreement_votes": 0.0, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 48.89969721340125, "Haley Stevens": 47.0326001428678, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.067702643730954 }, "remaining_sources": [ { "model": "market", "remaining_votes": 3200.745116245081, "weight": 0.1780093144963334 } ], "share_sources": [ { "model": "v0", "weight": 0.03630604611298715, "source": "statewide raw" }, { "model": "v3", "weight": 0.06301781787712588, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "market", "weight": 0.18729675699179427, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "histgeo", "weight": 0.02760802595386354, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "latent", "weight": 0.03563066882913146, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "batchbias", "weight": 0.020512372723621893, "source": "statewide fallback" } ], "candidate_benchmarks": { "Abdul El-Sayed": { "opponent": "Haley Stevens", "expected_remaining_share_points": 48.89969721340125, "expected_final_county_share_points": 48.89969721340125, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 47.66839461620564, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 47.66839461620564, "required_final_county_share_points": 47.66839461620564, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 47.66839461620564, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": -672.426314123878, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": false }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 47.66839461620564, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 47.66839461620564, "required_final_county_share_points": 47.66839461620564, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 47.66839461620564, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.323151754974845, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.323151754974845, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.323151754974845, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.024044322225107804, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999973, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.977842575966974, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.977842575966974, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.977842575966974, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.003259695682198218, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.9999999999999996, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": 1.231302597195608, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "ABOVE", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.0026071874312358283, "criticality_score": 0.002117422181333744, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -800.3814340960289, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -65.16680166225132, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 319.1429144126714, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Haley Stevens": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 47.0326001428678, "expected_final_county_share_points": 47.03260014286779, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.263902740063415, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.263902740063415, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.263902740063415, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 48.263902740063415, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 768.358611480147, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.263902740063415, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.263902740063415, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.263902740063415, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 48.263902740063415, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.91871971216041, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.91871971216041, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.91871971216041, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.07865391656842785, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.999999999999999, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 49.57359001921479, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 49.57359001921479, "required_final_county_share_points": 49.57359001921479, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.10597932088248406, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -1.231302597195615, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.0026071874312358283, "criticality_score": 0.0021174221813337313, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 896.3137314522979, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1631.5283638860753, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 2015.8380799609984, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Mallory McMorrow": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 4.067702643730954, "expected_final_county_share_points": 4.067702643730953, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 34.42310697630675, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 34.42310697630675, "required_final_county_share_points": 34.42310697630675, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 34.42310697630675, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 17371.480670344943, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 34.42310697630675, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 34.42310697630675, "required_final_county_share_points": 34.42310697630675, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 34.42310697630675, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 35.06567287040493, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 35.06567287040493, "required_final_county_share_points": 35.06567287040493, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.159018308558073, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999906, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 35.706869543417156, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 35.706869543417156, "required_final_county_share_points": 35.706869543417156, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.213613509684069, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.999999999999993, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -30.355404332575795, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "WELL BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.0026071874312358283, "criticality_score": 8.588874003031923e-05, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 853.3488339531611, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1588.5634663869384, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1972.8731824618615, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } } } }, { "cid": "fips:26123", "county": "Newaygo", "fips": "26123", "reporting": 11.7, "current_votes": 474, "current_candidate_votes": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 183, "Haley Stevens": 266, "Mallory McMorrow": 25 }, "current_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 38.607594936708864, "Haley Stevens": 56.118143459915615, "Mallory McMorrow": 5.274261603375527 }, "estimated_remaining_votes": 3200.745116245081, "estimated_final_votes": 3674.745116245081, "turnout_disagreement_votes": 0.0, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 44.644473190486266, "Haley Stevens": 50.88909420569647, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.466432603817268 }, "remaining_sources": [ { "model": "v3", "remaining_votes": 3200.745116245081, "weight": 0.1342208488636769 }, { "model": "histgeo", "remaining_votes": 3200.745116245081, "weight": 0.05994207394479305 }, { "model": "latent", "remaining_votes": 3200.745116245081, "weight": 0.07672787409296966 }, { "model": "batchbias", "remaining_votes": 3200.745116245081, "weight": 0.045123489075924846 } ], "share_sources": [ { "model": "v0", "weight": 0.03630604611298715, "source": "statewide raw" }, { "model": "v1", "weight": 0.14599140026529184, "source": "county live" }, { "model": "v3", "weight": 0.15004242351696637, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "market", "weight": 0.0786646379365536, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "histgeo", "weight": 0.06573339512824654, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "latent", "weight": 0.08483492578364633, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "batchbias", "weight": 0.04883898267529022, "source": "county remaining" } ], "candidate_benchmarks": { "Abdul El-Sayed": { "opponent": "Haley Stevens", "expected_remaining_share_points": 44.644473190486266, "expected_final_county_share_points": 43.86578509055774, "current_county_share_points": 38.607594936708864, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 43.42571969093881, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 43.42571969093881, "required_final_county_share_points": 42.804236823077055, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 43.42571969093881, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": -676.6815381467919, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": false }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 43.42571969093881, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 43.42571969093881, "required_final_county_share_points": 42.804236823077055, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 43.42571969093881, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 44.07314334632355, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 44.07314334632355, "required_final_county_share_points": 43.368150247698914, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.024044322225107804, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999973, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 44.72200133161808, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 44.72200133161808, "required_final_county_share_points": 43.933312990112526, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.003259695682198218, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.9999999999999996, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": 1.2187534995474536, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "ABOVE", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.0026071874312358283, "criticality_score": 0.0021392245701890716, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -804.636658118944, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -69.42202568516629, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 314.8876903897565, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Haley Stevens": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 50.88909420569647, "expected_final_county_share_points": 51.563581624032715, "current_county_share_points": 56.118143459915615, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 52.10784770524393, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 52.10784770524393, "required_final_county_share_points": 52.62512989151341, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 52.10784770524393, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 772.2151055429746, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 52.10784770524393, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 52.10784770524393, "required_final_county_share_points": 52.62512989151341, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 52.10784770524393, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 52.75383538188565, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 52.75383538188565, "required_final_county_share_points": 53.18779256219091, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.07865391656842785, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.999999999999999, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 53.39838545532275, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 53.39838545532275, "required_final_county_share_points": 53.74920306399932, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.10597932088248406, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -1.2187534995474536, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.0026071874312358283, "criticality_score": 0.0021392245701890716, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 900.1702255151266, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1635.384857948904, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 2019.694574023827, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Mallory McMorrow": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 4.466432603817268, "expected_final_county_share_points": 4.570633285409541, "current_county_share_points": 5.274261603375527, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 33.918010935613374, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 33.918010935613374, "required_final_county_share_points": 30.223295586932515, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 33.918010935613374, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 17371.879400305035, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 33.918010935613374, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 33.918010935613374, "required_final_county_share_points": 30.223295586932515, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 33.918010935613374, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 34.47624510714461, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 34.47624510714461, "required_final_county_share_points": 30.70952394882648, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.159018308558073, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999906, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 35.0308823102411, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 35.0308823102411, "required_final_county_share_points": 31.192619309985268, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.213613509684069, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.999999999999993, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -29.451578331796107, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "WELL BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.0026071874312358283, "criticality_score": 8.85245402424186e-05, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 853.7475639132474, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1588.962196347025, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1973.271912421948, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } } } }, { "cid": "fips:26019", "county": "Benzie", "fips": "26019", "reporting": 24.01, "current_votes": 765, "current_candidate_votes": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 438, "Haley Stevens": 297, "Mallory McMorrow": 30 }, "current_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 57.25490196078431, "Haley Stevens": 38.82352941176471, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.9215686274509802 }, "estimated_remaining_votes": 3174.6120880113112, "estimated_final_votes": 3939.6120880113112, "turnout_disagreement_votes": 4.547473508864641e-13, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 53.493082637610456, "Haley Stevens": 42.63403696904373, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.872880393345816 }, "remaining_sources": [ { "model": "v3", "remaining_votes": 3174.612088011311, "weight": 0.1342208488636769 }, { "model": "histgeo", "remaining_votes": 3174.612088011311, "weight": 0.05994207394479305 }, { "model": "latent", "remaining_votes": 3174.612088011311, "weight": 0.07672787409296966 }, { "model": "batchbias", "remaining_votes": 3174.612088011311, "weight": 0.045123489075924846 } ], "share_sources": [ { "model": "v0", "weight": 0.03630604611298715, "source": "statewide raw" }, { "model": "v1", "weight": 0.14599140026529184, "source": "county live" }, { "model": "v3", "weight": 0.15004242351696637, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "market", "weight": 0.0786646379365536, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "histgeo", "weight": 0.06573339512824654, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "latent", "weight": 0.08483492578364633, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "batchbias", "weight": 0.04883898267529022, "source": "county remaining" } ], "candidate_benchmarks": { "Abdul El-Sayed": { "opponent": "Haley Stevens", "expected_remaining_share_points": 53.493082637610456, "expected_final_county_share_points": 54.22355856212736, "current_county_share_points": 57.25490196078431, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 52.27162982040284, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 52.27162982040284, "required_final_county_share_points": 53.23928935190667, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 52.27162982040284, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": -673.7707984290821, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": false }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 52.27162982040284, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 52.27162982040284, "required_final_county_share_points": 53.23928935190667, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 52.27162982040284, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 52.9218803291313, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 52.9218803291313, "required_final_county_share_points": 53.76327320593299, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.024044322225107804, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999973, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 53.57040495707894, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 53.57040495707894, "required_final_county_share_points": 54.285866313391686, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.003259695682198218, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.9999999999999996, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": 1.221452817207613, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "ABOVE", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.0025859006057384125, "criticality_score": 0.002117069582474819, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -802.7792296941349, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -61.51239805786878, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 325.96090978268273, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Haley Stevens": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 42.63403696904373, "expected_final_county_share_points": 41.89410668753473, "current_county_share_points": 38.82352941176471, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 43.855489786251326, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 43.855489786251326, "required_final_county_share_points": 42.8783758977554, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 43.855489786251326, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 769.8979180357364, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 43.855489786251326, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 43.855489786251326, "required_final_county_share_points": 42.8783758977554, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 43.855489786251326, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 44.50746659977364, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 44.50746659977364, "required_final_county_share_points": 43.40375084002691, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.07865391656842785, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.999999999999999, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 45.16117009848173, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 45.16117009848173, "required_final_county_share_points": 43.9305171770704, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.10597932088248406, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -1.2214528172075987, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.0025859006057384125, "criticality_score": 0.0021170695824748436, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 898.906349300789, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1640.1731809370551, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 2027.6464887776067, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Mallory McMorrow": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 3.872880393345816, "expected_final_county_share_points": 3.882334750337916, "current_county_share_points": 3.9215686274509802, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 35.43370505374941, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 35.43370505374941, "required_final_county_share_points": 29.31462941189167, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 35.43370505374941, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 17514.25232111546, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 35.43370505374941, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 35.43370505374941, "required_final_county_share_points": 29.31462941189167, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 35.43370505374941, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 36.15723776745562, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 36.15723776745562, "required_final_county_share_points": 29.897665418404394, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.159018308558073, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999906, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 36.88171474701345, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 36.88171474701345, "required_final_county_share_points": 30.48146233175766, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.213613509684069, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.999999999999993, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -31.56082466040359, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "WELL BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.0025859006057384125, "criticality_score": 8.193387319763857e-05, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 860.1451927250911, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1601.4120243613572, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1988.8853322019088, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } } } }, { "cid": "26019", "county": "26019", "fips": null, "reporting": 0.0, "current_votes": 0, "current_candidate_votes": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 0, "Haley Stevens": 0, "Mallory McMorrow": 0 }, "current_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": null, "Haley Stevens": null, "Mallory McMorrow": null }, "estimated_remaining_votes": 3174.6120880113112, "estimated_final_votes": 3174.6120880113112, "turnout_disagreement_votes": 4.547473508864641e-13, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 50.730017324504615, "Haley Stevens": 45.27172579179482, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.9982568837005563 }, "remaining_sources": [ { "model": "market", "remaining_votes": 3174.612088011311, "weight": 0.1780093144963334 } ], "share_sources": [ { "model": "v0", "weight": 0.03630604611298715, "source": "statewide raw" }, { "model": "v3", "weight": 0.06301781787712588, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "market", "weight": 0.18729675699179427, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "histgeo", "weight": 0.02760802595386354, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "latent", "weight": 0.03563066882913146, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "batchbias", "weight": 0.020512372723621893, "source": "statewide fallback" } ], "candidate_benchmarks": { "Abdul El-Sayed": { "opponent": "Haley Stevens", "expected_remaining_share_points": 50.730017324504615, "expected_final_county_share_points": 50.73001732450461, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 49.50016019836641, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 49.50016019836641, "required_final_county_share_points": 49.50016019836641, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 49.50016019836641, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": -676.5338637421879, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": false }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 49.50016019836641, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 49.50016019836641, "required_final_county_share_points": 49.50016019836641, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 49.50016019836641, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 50.15444288185997, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 50.15444288185997, "required_final_county_share_points": 50.15444288185997, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.024044322225107804, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999973, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 50.80799124524014, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 50.80799124524014, "required_final_county_share_points": 50.80799124524014, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.003259695682198218, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.9999999999999996, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": 1.2298571261382065, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "ABOVE", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.0025859006057384125, "criticality_score": 0.0021026024493253368, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -805.5422950072407, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -64.27546337097462, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 323.19784446957686, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Haley Stevens": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 45.27172579179482, "expected_final_county_share_points": 45.27172579179482, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 46.501582917933014, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 46.501582917933014, "required_final_county_share_points": 46.501582917933014, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 46.501582917933014, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 772.5356068584873, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 46.501582917933014, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 46.501582917933014, "required_final_county_share_points": 46.501582917933014, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 46.501582917933014, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 47.15659466006662, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 47.15659466006662, "required_final_county_share_points": 47.15659466006661, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.07865391656842785, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.999999999999999, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 47.8123301615876, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 47.8123301615876, "required_final_county_share_points": 47.8123301615876, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.10597932088248406, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -1.2298571261381923, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.0025859006057384125, "criticality_score": 0.002102602449325361, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 901.5440381235401, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1642.810869759806, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 2030.2841776003577, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Mallory McMorrow": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 3.9982568837005563, "expected_final_county_share_points": 3.9982568837005563, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 34.890156189751885, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 34.890156189751885, "required_final_county_share_points": 34.890156189751885, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 34.890156189751885, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 17514.37769760581, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 34.890156189751885, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 34.890156189751885, "required_final_county_share_points": 34.890156189751885, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 34.890156189751885, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 35.56490834428867, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 35.56490834428867, "required_final_county_share_points": 35.56490834428867, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.159018308558073, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999906, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 36.23911150956503, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 36.23911150956503, "required_final_county_share_points": 36.23911150956503, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.213613509684069, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.999999999999993, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -30.89189930605133, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "WELL BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.0025859006057384125, "criticality_score": 8.370804851198863e-05, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 860.2705692154459, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1601.537400851712, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1989.0107086922635, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } } } }, { "cid": "26047", "county": "26047", "fips": null, "reporting": 0.0, "current_votes": 0, "current_candidate_votes": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 0, "Haley Stevens": 0, "Mallory McMorrow": 0 }, "current_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": null, "Haley Stevens": null, "Mallory McMorrow": null }, "estimated_remaining_votes": 2782.232900489893, "estimated_final_votes": 2782.232900489893, "turnout_disagreement_votes": 0.0, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 50.710906450832304, "Haley Stevens": 44.847730416503666, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.441363132664023 }, "remaining_sources": [ { "model": "market", "remaining_votes": 2782.232900489893, "weight": 0.1780093144963334 } ], "share_sources": [ { "model": "v0", "weight": 0.03630604611298715, "source": "statewide raw" }, { "model": "v3", "weight": 0.06301781787712588, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "market", "weight": 0.18729675699179427, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "histgeo", "weight": 0.02760802595386354, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "latent", "weight": 0.03563066882913146, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "batchbias", "weight": 0.020512372723621893, "source": "statewide fallback" } ], "candidate_benchmarks": { "Abdul El-Sayed": { "opponent": "Haley Stevens", "expected_remaining_share_points": 50.710906450832304, "expected_final_county_share_points": 50.710906450832304, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 49.48723771948419, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 49.48723771948419, "required_final_county_share_points": 49.48723771948419, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 49.48723771948419, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": -779.119230200134, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": false }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 49.48723771948419, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 49.48723771948419, "required_final_county_share_points": 49.48723771948419, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 49.48723771948419, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 50.13826343147477, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 50.13826343147477, "required_final_county_share_points": 50.13826343147477, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.024044322225107804, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999973, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 50.78847847817567, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 50.78847847817567, "required_final_county_share_points": 50.78847847817567, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.003259695682198218, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.9999999999999996, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": 1.2236687313481127, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "ABOVE", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.002266285625841326, "criticality_score": 0.0018520417885848606, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -926.3217614035068, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -80.51383362723013, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 361.6049575910578, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Haley Stevens": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 44.847730416503666, "expected_final_county_share_points": 44.847730416503666, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 46.07139914785179, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 46.07139914785179, "required_final_county_share_points": 46.07139914785179, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 46.07139914785179, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 874.6778670674698, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 46.07139914785179, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 46.07139914785179, "required_final_county_share_points": 46.07139914785179, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 46.07139914785179, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 46.723230573520766, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 46.723230573520766, "required_final_county_share_points": 46.723230573520766, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.07865391656842785, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.999999999999999, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 47.3758627214757, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 47.3758627214757, "required_final_county_share_points": 47.3758627214757, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.10597932088248406, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -1.223668731348127, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.002266285625841326, "criticality_score": 0.0018520417885848392, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1021.8803982708428, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1867.6883260471193, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 2309.807117265407, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Mallory McMorrow": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 4.441363132664023, "expected_final_county_share_points": 4.441363132664024, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 36.484377830344414, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 36.484377830344414, "required_final_county_share_points": 36.484377830344414, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 36.484377830344414, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 19984.3151646369, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 36.484377830344414, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 36.484377830344414, "required_final_county_share_points": 36.484377830344414, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 36.484377830344414, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 37.14239258373468, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 37.14239258373468, "required_final_county_share_points": 37.14239258373469, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.159018308558073, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999906, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 37.79819287111364, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 37.79819287111364, "required_final_county_share_points": 37.79819287111364, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.213613509684069, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.999999999999993, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -32.04301469768039, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "WELL BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.002266285625841326, "criticality_score": 7.072635478350867e-05, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 981.4740309870032, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1827.2819587632796, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 2269.4007499815675, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } } } }, { "cid": "fips:26047", "county": "Emmet", "fips": "26047", "reporting": 50.16, "current_votes": 2353, "current_candidate_votes": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 1274, "Haley Stevens": 953, "Mallory McMorrow": 126 }, "current_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 54.14364640883977, "Haley Stevens": 40.50148746281343, "Mallory McMorrow": 5.354866128346791 }, "estimated_remaining_votes": 2782.232900489893, "estimated_final_votes": 5135.232900489893, "turnout_disagreement_votes": 0.0, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 52.46308691817604, "Haley Stevens": 42.73358357877251, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.803329503051446 }, "remaining_sources": [ { "model": "v3", "remaining_votes": 2782.232900489893, "weight": 0.1342208488636769 }, { "model": "histgeo", "remaining_votes": 2782.232900489893, "weight": 0.05994207394479305 }, { "model": "latent", "remaining_votes": 2782.232900489893, "weight": 0.07672787409296966 }, { "model": "batchbias", "remaining_votes": 2782.232900489893, "weight": 0.045123489075924846 } ], "share_sources": [ { "model": "v0", "weight": 0.03630604611298715, "source": "statewide raw" }, { "model": "v1", "weight": 0.14599140026529184, "source": "county live" }, { "model": "v3", "weight": 0.15004242351696637, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "market", "weight": 0.0786646379365536, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "histgeo", "weight": 0.06573339512824654, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "latent", "weight": 0.08483492578364633, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "batchbias", "weight": 0.04883898267529022, "source": "county remaining" } ], "candidate_benchmarks": { "Abdul El-Sayed": { "opponent": "Haley Stevens", "expected_remaining_share_points": 52.46308691817604, "expected_final_county_share_points": 53.23313115144821, "current_county_share_points": 54.14364640883977, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 51.250955667579326, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 51.250955667579326, "required_final_county_share_points": 52.57640700466211, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 51.250955667579326, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": -777.3670497327901, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": false }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 51.250955667579326, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 51.250955667579326, "required_final_county_share_points": 52.57640700466211, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 51.250955667579326, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 51.89616018151322, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 51.89616018151322, "required_final_county_share_points": 52.92597425136678, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.024044322225107804, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999973, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 52.53984175105116, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 52.53984175105116, "required_final_county_share_points": 53.274716377558676, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.003259695682198218, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.9999999999999996, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": 1.2121312505967126, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "ABOVE", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.002266285625841326, "criticality_score": 0.001869670157192689, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -924.5695809361631, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -78.76165315988641, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 363.3571380584016, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Haley Stevens": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 42.73358357877251, "expected_final_county_share_points": 41.71082136669237, "current_county_share_points": 40.50148746281343, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 43.94571482936922, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 43.94571482936922, "required_final_county_share_points": 42.36754551347848, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 43.94571482936922, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 872.5637202297387, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 43.94571482936922, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 43.94571482936922, "required_final_county_share_points": 42.36754551347848, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 43.94571482936922, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 44.59244127745252, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 44.59244127745252, "required_final_county_share_points": 42.717937333351465, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.07865391656842785, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.999999999999999, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 45.240688602963054, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 45.240688602963054, "required_final_county_share_points": 43.069153153868186, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.10597932088248406, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -1.2121312505967126, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.002266285625841326, "criticality_score": 0.001869670157192689, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1019.7662514331116, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1865.5741792093881, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 2307.6929704276763, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Mallory McMorrow": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 4.803329503051446, "expected_final_county_share_points": 5.056047481859407, "current_county_share_points": 5.354866128346791, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 38.44784351659984, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 38.44784351659984, "required_final_county_share_points": 23.284407445933798, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 38.44784351659984, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 19984.677131007287, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 38.44784351659984, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 38.44784351659984, "required_final_county_share_points": 23.284407445933798, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 38.44784351659984, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 39.120707447958615, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 39.120707447958615, "required_final_county_share_points": 23.64896036956084, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.159018308558073, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999906, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 39.79060389230359, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 39.79060389230359, "required_final_county_share_points": 24.011905529691745, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.213613509684069, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.999999999999993, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -33.644514013548395, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "WELL BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.002266285625841326, "criticality_score": 6.735973730899218e-05, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 981.8359973573906, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1827.643925133667, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 2269.762716351955, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } } } }, { "cid": "fips:26043", "county": "Dickinson", "fips": "26043", "reporting": 0.0, "current_votes": 0, "current_candidate_votes": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 0, "Haley Stevens": 0, "Mallory McMorrow": 0 }, "current_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": null, "Haley Stevens": null, "Mallory McMorrow": null }, "estimated_remaining_votes": 2771.437006206097, "estimated_final_votes": 2771.437006206097, "turnout_disagreement_votes": 0.0, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 49.16865152154438, "Haley Stevens": 46.95980356147505, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.8715449169805627 }, "remaining_sources": [ { "model": "v3", "remaining_votes": 2771.437006206097, "weight": 0.1342208488636769 }, { "model": "histgeo", "remaining_votes": 2771.437006206097, "weight": 0.05994207394479305 }, { "model": "latent", "remaining_votes": 2771.437006206097, "weight": 0.07672787409296966 }, { "model": "batchbias", "remaining_votes": 2771.437006206097, "weight": 0.045123489075924846 } ], "share_sources": [ { "model": "v0", "weight": 0.03630604611298715, "source": "statewide raw" }, { "model": "v3", "weight": 0.15004242351696637, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "market", "weight": 0.0786646379365536, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "histgeo", "weight": 0.06573339512824654, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "latent", "weight": 0.08483492578364633, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "batchbias", "weight": 0.04883898267529022, "source": "county remaining" } ], "candidate_benchmarks": { "Abdul El-Sayed": { "opponent": "Haley Stevens", "expected_remaining_share_points": 49.16865152154438, "expected_final_county_share_points": 49.16865152154438, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 47.93490399099499, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 47.93490399099499, "required_final_county_share_points": 47.93490399099499, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 47.93490399099499, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": -783.8940169923975, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": false }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 47.93490399099499, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 47.93490399099499, "required_final_county_share_points": 47.93490399099499, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 47.93490399099499, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.590988980207996, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.590988980207996, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.590988980207996, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.024044322225107804, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999973, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 49.24694453603149, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 49.24694453603149, "required_final_county_share_points": 49.246944536031485, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.003259695682198218, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.9999999999999996, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": 1.233747530549394, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "ABOVE", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.0022574917610181616, "criticality_score": 0.0018297842185044854, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -931.6699629844236, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -82.56726323526016, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 361.27376367526404, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Haley Stevens": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 46.95980356147505, "expected_final_county_share_points": 46.95980356147505, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.19355109202444, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.19355109202444, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.19355109202444, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 48.19355109202444, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 880.0224720754169, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.19355109202444, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.19355109202444, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.19355109202444, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 48.19355109202444, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.84975904430577, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.84975904430577, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.84975904430577, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.07865391656842785, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.999999999999999, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 49.50608347289391, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 49.50608347289391, "required_final_county_share_points": 49.50608347289392, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.10597932088248406, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -1.233747530549394, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.0022574917610181616, "criticality_score": 0.0018297842185044854, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1027.798418067443, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1876.9011178166063, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 2320.7421447271304, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Mallory McMorrow": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 3.8715449169805627, "expected_final_county_share_points": 3.8715449169805627, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 33.802415637919424, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 33.802415637919424, "required_final_county_share_points": 33.802415637919424, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 33.802415637919424, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 20061.57522488557, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 33.802415637919424, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 33.802415637919424, "required_final_county_share_points": 33.802415637919424, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 33.802415637919424, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 34.45653241391705, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 34.45653241391705, "required_final_county_share_points": 34.45653241391705, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.159018308558073, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999906, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 35.110132188854834, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 35.110132188854834, "required_final_county_share_points": 35.110132188854834, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.213613509684069, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.999999999999993, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -29.930870720938863, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "WELL BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.0022574917610181616, "criticality_score": 7.54235244963615e-05, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 984.7101594229485, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1833.8128591721118, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 2277.653886082636, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } } } }, { "cid": "26043", "county": "26043", "fips": null, "reporting": 0.0, "current_votes": 0, "current_candidate_votes": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 0, "Haley Stevens": 0, "Mallory McMorrow": 0 }, "current_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": null, "Haley Stevens": null, "Mallory McMorrow": null }, "estimated_remaining_votes": 2771.437006206097, "estimated_final_votes": 2771.437006206097, "turnout_disagreement_votes": 0.0, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 48.973903537573875, "Haley Stevens": 46.149745434179586, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.8763510282465425 }, "remaining_sources": [ { "model": "market", "remaining_votes": 2771.437006206097, "weight": 0.1780093144963334 } ], "share_sources": [ { "model": "v0", "weight": 0.03630604611298715, "source": "statewide raw" }, { "model": "v3", "weight": 0.06301781787712588, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "market", "weight": 0.18729675699179427, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "histgeo", "weight": 0.02760802595386354, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "latent", "weight": 0.03563066882913146, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "batchbias", "weight": 0.020512372723621893, "source": "statewide fallback" } ], "candidate_benchmarks": { "Abdul El-Sayed": { "opponent": "Haley Stevens", "expected_remaining_share_points": 48.973903537573875, "expected_final_county_share_points": 48.973903537573875, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 47.75327342108671, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 47.75327342108671, "required_final_county_share_points": 47.75327342108671, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 47.75327342108671, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": -784.0887649763681, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": false }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 47.75327342108671, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 47.75327342108671, "required_final_county_share_points": 47.75327342108671, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 47.75327342108671, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.402435191598066, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.402435191598066, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.40243519159807, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.024044322225107804, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999973, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 49.05134992915548, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 49.05134992915548, "required_final_county_share_points": 49.05134992915548, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.003259695682198218, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.9999999999999996, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": 1.2206301164871647, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "ABOVE", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.0022574917610181616, "criticality_score": 0.0018494478634649516, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -931.8647109683941, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -82.76201121923066, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 361.07901569129353, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Haley Stevens": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 46.149745434179586, "expected_final_county_share_points": 46.149745434179586, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 47.37037555066674, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 47.37037555066674, "required_final_county_share_points": 47.37037555066674, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 47.37037555066674, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 879.2124139481215, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 47.37037555066674, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 47.37037555066674, "required_final_county_share_points": 47.37037555066674, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 47.37037555066674, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.01977805349677, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.01977805349677, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.01977805349678, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.07865391656842785, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.999999999999999, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.6694149671013, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.6694149671013, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.6694149671013, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.10597932088248406, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -1.2206301164871576, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.0022574917610181616, "criticality_score": 0.0018494478634649622, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1026.9883599401476, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1876.0910596893107, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 2319.932086599835, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Mallory McMorrow": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 4.8763510282465425, "expected_final_county_share_points": 4.8763510282465425, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 37.136501345834354, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 37.136501345834354, "required_final_county_share_points": 37.13650134583436, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 37.136501345834354, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 20062.580030996833, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 37.136501345834354, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 37.136501345834354, "required_final_county_share_points": 37.13650134583436, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 37.136501345834354, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 37.749746513256014, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 37.749746513256014, "required_final_county_share_points": 37.74974651325601, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.159018308558073, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999906, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 38.359105897231565, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 38.359105897231565, "required_final_county_share_points": 38.359105897231565, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.213613509684069, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.999999999999993, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -32.260150317587815, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "WELL BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.0022574917610181616, "criticality_score": 6.997771984302895e-05, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 985.7149655342145, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1834.8176652833777, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 2278.658692193902, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } } } }, { "cid": "26143", "county": "26143", "fips": null, "reporting": 0.0, "current_votes": 0, "current_candidate_votes": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 0, "Haley Stevens": 0, "Mallory McMorrow": 0 }, "current_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": null, "Haley Stevens": null, "Mallory McMorrow": null }, "estimated_remaining_votes": 2732.255070860492, "estimated_final_votes": 2732.255070860492, "turnout_disagreement_votes": 0.0, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 45.53344018445743, "Haley Stevens": 50.23026380270551, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.236296012837063 }, "remaining_sources": [ { "model": "market", "remaining_votes": 2732.255070860492, "weight": 0.1780093144963334 } ], "share_sources": [ { "model": "v0", "weight": 0.03630604611298715, "source": "statewide raw" }, { "model": "v3", "weight": 0.06301781787712588, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "market", "weight": 0.18729675699179427, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "histgeo", "weight": 0.02760802595386354, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "latent", "weight": 0.03563066882913146, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "batchbias", "weight": 0.020512372723621893, "source": "statewide fallback" } ], "candidate_benchmarks": { "Abdul El-Sayed": { "opponent": "Haley Stevens", "expected_remaining_share_points": 45.53344018445743, "expected_final_county_share_points": 45.53344018445744, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 44.30894780627911, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 44.30894780627911, "required_final_county_share_points": 44.30894780627911, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 44.30894780627911, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": -799.4757731322253, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": false }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 44.30894780627911, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 44.30894780627911, "required_final_county_share_points": 44.30894780627911, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 44.30894780627911, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 44.9595475971268, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 44.9595475971268, "required_final_county_share_points": 44.9595475971268, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.024044322225107804, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999973, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 45.611298746342676, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 45.611298746342676, "required_final_county_share_points": 45.611298746342676, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.003259695682198218, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.9999999999999996, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": 1.2244923781783257, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "ABOVE", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.002225575864670752, "criticality_score": 0.001817549789882511, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -949.3709017815539, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -88.0916349767853, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 362.11429929747845, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Haley Stevens": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 50.23026380270551, "expected_final_county_share_points": 50.230263802705515, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 51.454756180883834, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 51.454756180883834, "required_final_county_share_points": 51.454756180883834, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 51.454756180883834, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 895.2394771193882, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 51.454756180883834, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 51.454756180883834, "required_final_county_share_points": 51.454756180883834, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 51.454756180883834, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 52.10420122635174, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 52.10420122635174, "required_final_county_share_points": 52.10420122635174, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.07865391656842785, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.999999999999999, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 52.75248816288217, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 52.75248816288217, "required_final_county_share_points": 52.75248816288217, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.10597932088248406, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -1.2244923781783257, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.002225575864670752, "criticality_score": 0.001817549789882511, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1045.134605768717, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1906.4138725734852, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 2356.6198068477493, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Mallory McMorrow": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 4.236296012837063, "expected_final_county_share_points": 4.236296012837063, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 33.59035273597012, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 33.59035273597012, "required_final_county_share_points": 33.59035273597012, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 33.59035273597012, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 20349.57770686221, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 33.59035273597012, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 33.59035273597012, "required_final_county_share_points": 33.59035273597012, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 33.59035273597012, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 34.17178368873538, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 34.17178368873538, "required_final_county_share_points": 34.17178368873538, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.159018308558073, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999906, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 34.75043332895887, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 34.75043332895887, "required_final_county_share_points": 34.75043332895887, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.213613509684069, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.999999999999993, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -29.35405672313306, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "WELL BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.002225575864670752, "criticality_score": 7.581834039711594e-05, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 999.1406379788484, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1860.4199047836169, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 2310.625839057881, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } } } }, { "cid": "fips:26143", "county": "Roscommon", "fips": "26143", "reporting": 15.72, "current_votes": 484, "current_candidate_votes": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 163, "Haley Stevens": 297, "Mallory McMorrow": 24 }, "current_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 33.67768595041322, "Haley Stevens": 61.36363636363637, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.958677685950414 }, "estimated_remaining_votes": 2732.255070860492, "estimated_final_votes": 3216.255070860492, "turnout_disagreement_votes": 0.0, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 41.97757579994265, "Haley Stevens": 53.64337213625511, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.379052063802255 }, "remaining_sources": [ { "model": "v3", "remaining_votes": 2732.255070860492, "weight": 0.1342208488636769 }, { "model": "histgeo", "remaining_votes": 2732.255070860492, "weight": 0.05994207394479305 }, { "model": "latent", "remaining_votes": 2732.255070860492, "weight": 0.07672787409296966 }, { "model": "batchbias", "remaining_votes": 2732.255070860492, "weight": 0.045123489075924846 } ], "share_sources": [ { "model": "v0", "weight": 0.03630604611298715, "source": "statewide raw" }, { "model": "v1", "weight": 0.14599140026529184, "source": "county live" }, { "model": "v3", "weight": 0.15004242351696637, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "market", "weight": 0.0786646379365536, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "histgeo", "weight": 0.06573339512824654, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "latent", "weight": 0.08483492578364633, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "batchbias", "weight": 0.04883898267529022, "source": "county remaining" } ], "candidate_benchmarks": { "Abdul El-Sayed": { "opponent": "Haley Stevens", "expected_remaining_share_points": 41.97757579994265, "expected_final_county_share_points": 40.72856208720329, "current_county_share_points": 33.67768595041322, "recent_batch_votes": 214, "recent_batch_share_points": 28.504672897196258, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 40.77245653245891, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 40.77245653245891, "required_final_county_share_points": 39.704795887996596, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 40.77245653245891, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": -803.0316375167381, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": false }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 40.77245653245891, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 40.77245653245891, "required_final_county_share_points": 39.704795887996596, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 40.77245653245891, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 41.41220221832386, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 41.41220221832386, "required_final_county_share_points": 40.248269075214296, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.024044322225107804, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999973, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 42.05435497077324, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 42.05435497077324, "required_final_county_share_points": 40.79378710021267, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.003259695682198218, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.9999999999999996, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": 1.205119267483738, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -12.267783635262653, "status": "ABOVE", "recent_status": "WELL BELOW", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.002225575864670752, "criticality_score": 0.001846768137163473, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -952.9267661660687, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -91.64749936130008, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 358.55843491296366, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Haley Stevens": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 53.64337213625511, "expected_final_county_share_points": 54.805160552822706, "current_county_share_points": 61.36363636363637, "recent_batch_votes": 214, "recent_batch_share_points": 67.7570093457944, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 54.848491403738855, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 54.848491403738855, "required_final_county_share_points": 55.82892675202942, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 54.848491403738855, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 898.6525854529358, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 54.848491403738855, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 54.848491403738855, "required_final_county_share_points": 55.82892675202942, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 54.848491403738855, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 55.48583722269148, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 55.48583722269148, "required_final_county_share_points": 56.37036121769172, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.07865391656842785, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.999999999999999, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 56.12079035673592, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 56.12079035673592, "required_final_county_share_points": 56.90976306301475, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.10597932088248406, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -1.2051192674837452, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": 12.908517942055546, "status": "BELOW", "recent_status": "WELL ABOVE", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.002225575864670752, "criticality_score": 0.0018467681371634622, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1048.5477141022664, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1909.8269809070348, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 2360.032915181299, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Mallory McMorrow": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 4.379052063802255, "expected_final_county_share_points": 4.466277359974008, "current_county_share_points": 4.958677685950414, "recent_batch_votes": 214, "recent_batch_share_points": 3.7383177570093453, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 32.42682629440859, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 32.42682629440859, "required_final_county_share_points": 28.293266102947513, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 32.42682629440859, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 20349.720462913177, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 32.42682629440859, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 32.42682629440859, "required_final_county_share_points": 28.293266102947513, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 32.42682629440859, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 32.944977094900935, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 32.944977094900935, "required_final_county_share_points": 28.7334426812737, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.159018308558073, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999906, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 33.459305524073116, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 33.459305524073116, "required_final_county_share_points": 29.17037210003321, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.213613509684069, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.999999999999993, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -28.047774230606336, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -28.688508537399247, "status": "WELL BELOW", "recent_status": "WELL BELOW", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.002225575864670752, "criticality_score": 7.934946446631604e-05, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 999.2833940298136, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1860.562660834582, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 2310.768595108846, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } } } }, { "cid": "fips:26105", "county": "Mason", "fips": "26105", "reporting": 20.12, "current_votes": 718, "current_candidate_votes": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 349, "Haley Stevens": 332, "Mallory McMorrow": 37 }, "current_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 48.607242339832865, "Haley Stevens": 46.239554317548745, "Mallory McMorrow": 5.153203342618385 }, "estimated_remaining_votes": 2726.660439539037, "estimated_final_votes": 3444.660439539037, "turnout_disagreement_votes": 0.0, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 48.939170343713506, "Haley Stevens": 46.56819973258714, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.492629923699347 }, "remaining_sources": [ { "model": "v3", "remaining_votes": 2726.660439539037, "weight": 0.1342208488636769 }, { "model": "histgeo", "remaining_votes": 2726.660439539037, "weight": 0.05994207394479305 }, { "model": "latent", "remaining_votes": 2726.660439539037, "weight": 0.07672787409296966 }, { "model": "batchbias", "remaining_votes": 2726.660439539037, "weight": 0.045123489075924846 } ], "share_sources": [ { "model": "v0", "weight": 0.03630604611298715, "source": "statewide raw" }, { "model": "v1", "weight": 0.14599140026529184, "source": "county live" }, { "model": "v3", "weight": 0.15004242351696637, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "market", "weight": 0.0786646379365536, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "histgeo", "weight": 0.06573339512824654, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "latent", "weight": 0.08483492578364633, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "batchbias", "weight": 0.04883898267529022, "source": "county remaining" } ], "candidate_benchmarks": { "Abdul El-Sayed": { "opponent": "Haley Stevens", "expected_remaining_share_points": 48.939170343713506, "expected_final_county_share_points": 48.869983754507004, "current_county_share_points": 48.607242339832865, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 47.713444182807855, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 47.713444182807855, "required_final_county_share_points": 47.899746167577604, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 47.713444182807855, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": -797.8038543941432, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": false }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 47.713444182807855, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 47.713444182807855, "required_final_county_share_points": 47.899746167577604, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 47.713444182807855, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.36527802690067, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.36527802690067, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.415712715525174, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.024044322225107804, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999973, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 49.01695040235716, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 49.01695040235716, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.93155145112358, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.003259695682198218, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.9999999999999996, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": 1.2257261609056513, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "ABOVE", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.0022210187219011933, "criticality_score": 0.0018120023809071277, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -948.0065416853615, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -84.96008014937047, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 366.16959812486925, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Haley Stevens": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 46.56819973258714, "expected_final_county_share_points": 46.49969736141318, "current_county_share_points": 46.239554317548745, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 47.7939258934928, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 47.7939258934928, "required_final_county_share_points": 47.469934948342576, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 47.7939258934928, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 893.3112244704438, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 47.7939258934928, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 47.7939258934928, "required_final_county_share_points": 47.469934948342576, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 47.7939258934928, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.44591479929029, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.44591479929029, "required_final_county_share_points": 47.98602423715918, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.07865391656842785, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.999999999999999, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 49.09805234223422, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 49.09805234223422, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.5022311814121, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.10597932088248406, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -1.2257261609056584, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.0022210187219011933, "criticality_score": 0.001812002380907117, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1043.5139117616623, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1906.560373297653, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 2357.690051571893, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Mallory McMorrow": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 4.492629923699347, "expected_final_county_share_points": 4.630318884079818, "current_county_share_points": 5.153203342618385, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 35.9046884122628, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 35.9046884122628, "required_final_county_share_points": 29.49489369735634, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 35.9046884122628, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 20391.579130353086, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 35.9046884122628, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 35.9046884122628, "required_final_county_share_points": 29.49489369735634, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 35.9046884122628, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 36.53190383236086, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 36.53190383236086, "required_final_county_share_points": 29.991373249715085, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.159018308558073, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999906, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 37.156314149488324, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 37.156314149488324, "required_final_county_share_points": 30.485632390676837, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.213613509684069, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.999999999999993, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -31.412058488563453, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "WELL BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.0022210187219011933, "criticality_score": 7.070592723841467e-05, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1001.4383419527744, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1864.4848034887652, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 2315.614481763005, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } } } }, { "cid": "26105", "county": "26105", "fips": null, "reporting": 0.0, "current_votes": 0, "current_candidate_votes": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 0, "Haley Stevens": 0, "Mallory McMorrow": 0 }, "current_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": null, "Haley Stevens": null, "Mallory McMorrow": null }, "estimated_remaining_votes": 2726.660439539037, "estimated_final_votes": 2726.660439539037, "turnout_disagreement_votes": 0.0, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 48.56044532146647, "Haley Stevens": 47.148583173690966, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.2909715048425685 }, "remaining_sources": [ { "model": "market", "remaining_votes": 2726.660439539037, "weight": 0.1780093144963334 } ], "share_sources": [ { "model": "v0", "weight": 0.03630604611298715, "source": "statewide raw" }, { "model": "v3", "weight": 0.06301781787712588, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "market", "weight": 0.18729675699179427, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "histgeo", "weight": 0.02760802595386354, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "latent", "weight": 0.03563066882913146, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "batchbias", "weight": 0.020512372723621893, "source": "statewide fallback" } ], "candidate_benchmarks": { "Abdul El-Sayed": { "opponent": "Haley Stevens", "expected_remaining_share_points": 48.56044532146647, "expected_final_county_share_points": 48.56044532146646, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 47.33195894811292, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 47.33195894811292, "required_final_county_share_points": 47.33195894811292, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 47.33195894811292, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": -798.1825794163925, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": false }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 47.33195894811292, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 47.33195894811292, "required_final_county_share_points": 47.33195894811292, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 47.33195894811292, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 47.98518152904427, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 47.98518152904427, "required_final_county_share_points": 47.985181529044276, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.024044322225107804, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999973, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.63842198175606, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.63842198175606, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.63842198175606, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.003259695682198218, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.9999999999999996, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": 1.2284863733535474, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "ABOVE", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.0022210187219011933, "criticality_score": 0.001807931101293546, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -948.3852667076086, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -85.33880517161751, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 365.79087310262224, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Haley Stevens": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 47.148583173690966, "expected_final_county_share_points": 47.148583173690966, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.377069547044506, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.377069547044506, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.37706954704451, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 48.377069547044506, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 893.8916079115501, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.377069547044506, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.377069547044506, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.37706954704451, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 48.377069547044506, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 49.03026777887394, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 49.03026777887394, "required_final_county_share_points": 49.03026777887394, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.07865391656842785, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.999999999999999, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 49.68343517372752, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 49.68343517372752, "required_final_county_share_points": 49.68343517372752, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.10597932088248406, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -1.2284863733535403, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.0022210187219011933, "criticality_score": 0.0018079311012935565, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1044.094295202766, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1907.1407567387569, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 2358.2704350129966, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Mallory McMorrow": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 4.2909715048425685, "expected_final_county_share_points": 4.2909715048425685, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 35.067291975981384, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 35.067291975981384, "required_final_county_share_points": 35.067291975981384, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 35.067291975981384, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 20391.377471934233, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 35.067291975981384, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 35.067291975981384, "required_final_county_share_points": 35.067291975981384, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 35.067291975981384, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 35.695970947172064, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 35.695970947172064, "required_final_county_share_points": 35.695970947172064, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.159018308558073, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999906, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 36.32240180411807, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 36.32240180411807, "required_final_county_share_points": 36.32240180411807, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.213613509684069, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.999999999999993, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -30.776320471138817, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "WELL BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.0022210187219011933, "criticality_score": 7.216648019973679e-05, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1001.2366835339176, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1864.2831450699086, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 2315.4128233441484, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } } } }, { "cid": "26157", "county": "26157", "fips": null, "reporting": 0.0, "current_votes": 0, "current_candidate_votes": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 0, "Haley Stevens": 0, "Mallory McMorrow": 0 }, "current_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": null, "Haley Stevens": null, "Mallory McMorrow": null }, "estimated_remaining_votes": 2618.943835602582, "estimated_final_votes": 2618.943835602582, "turnout_disagreement_votes": 0.0, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 44.77362907114305, "Haley Stevens": 50.41595935107611, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.810411577780858 }, "remaining_sources": [ { "model": "market", "remaining_votes": 2618.943835602582, "weight": 0.1780093144963334 } ], "share_sources": [ { "model": "v0", "weight": 0.03630604611298715, "source": "statewide raw" }, { "model": "v3", "weight": 0.06301781787712588, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "market", "weight": 0.18729675699179427, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "histgeo", "weight": 0.02760802595386354, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "latent", "weight": 0.03563066882913146, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "batchbias", "weight": 0.020512372723621893, "source": "statewide fallback" } ], "candidate_benchmarks": { "Abdul El-Sayed": { "opponent": "Haley Stevens", "expected_remaining_share_points": 44.77362907114305, "expected_final_county_share_points": 44.77362907114305, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 43.558148221656204, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 43.558148221656204, "required_final_county_share_points": 43.558148221656204, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 43.558148221656204, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": -836.7957565041387, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": false }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 43.558148221656204, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 43.558148221656204, "required_final_county_share_points": 43.558148221656204, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 43.558148221656204, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 44.20388063296404, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 44.20388063296404, "required_final_county_share_points": 44.203880632964044, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.024044322225107804, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999973, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 44.850936194800624, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 44.850936194800624, "required_final_county_share_points": 44.850936194800624, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.003259695682198218, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.9999999999999996, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": 1.2154808494868448, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "ABOVE", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.002133277472373648, "criticality_score": 0.0017550893321554848, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -993.1762484344605, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -94.63286916688274, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 375.0516769964828, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Haley Stevens": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 50.41595935107611, "expected_final_county_share_points": 50.415959351076104, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 51.63144020056295, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 51.63144020056295, "required_final_county_share_points": 51.63144020056295, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 51.63144020056295, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 931.9853449263579, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 51.63144020056295, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 51.63144020056295, "required_final_county_share_points": 51.63144020056295, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 51.63144020056295, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 52.275847131293986, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 52.275847131293986, "required_final_county_share_points": 52.275847131293986, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.07865391656842785, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.999999999999999, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 52.91892627586393, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 52.91892627586393, "required_final_county_share_points": 52.91892627586393, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.10597932088248406, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -1.2154808494868377, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.002133277472373648, "criticality_score": 0.0017550893321554952, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1088.3658368566796, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1986.9092161242572, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 2456.593762287623, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Mallory McMorrow": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 4.810411577780858, "expected_final_county_share_points": 4.810411577780858, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 34.98972277045115, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 34.98972277045115, "required_final_county_share_points": 34.98972277045115, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 34.98972277045115, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 21230.41345143487, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 34.98972277045115, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 34.98972277045115, "required_final_county_share_points": 34.98972277045115, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 34.98972277045115, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 35.53719091224037, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 35.53719091224037, "required_final_county_share_points": 35.53719091224037, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.159018308558073, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999906, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 36.080266100812594, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 36.080266100812594, "required_final_county_share_points": 36.080266100812594, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.213613509684069, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.999999999999993, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -30.179311192670294, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "WELL BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.002133277472373648, "criticality_score": 7.068675155487846e-05, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1042.7602890833844, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1941.303668350962, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 2410.988214514328, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } } } }, { "cid": "fips:26157", "county": "Tuscola", "fips": "26157", "reporting": 41.07, "current_votes": 2125, "current_candidate_votes": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 786, "Haley Stevens": 1197, "Mallory McMorrow": 142 }, "current_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 36.98823529411765, "Haley Stevens": 56.32941176470588, "Mallory McMorrow": 6.682352941176471 }, "estimated_remaining_votes": 2618.9438356025817, "estimated_final_votes": 4743.943835602582, "turnout_disagreement_votes": 4.547473508864641e-13, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 41.824986232102596, "Haley Stevens": 52.617310696089746, "Mallory McMorrow": 5.5577030718076745 }, "remaining_sources": [ { "model": "v3", "remaining_votes": 2618.943835602582, "weight": 0.1342208488636769 }, { "model": "histgeo", "remaining_votes": 2618.943835602582, "weight": 0.05994207394479305 }, { "model": "latent", "remaining_votes": 2618.943835602582, "weight": 0.07672787409296966 }, { "model": "batchbias", "remaining_votes": 2618.943835602582, "weight": 0.045123489075924846 } ], "share_sources": [ { "model": "v0", "weight": 0.03630604611298715, "source": "statewide raw" }, { "model": "v1", "weight": 0.14599140026529184, "source": "county live" }, { "model": "v3", "weight": 0.15004242351696637, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "market", "weight": 0.0786646379365536, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "histgeo", "weight": 0.06573339512824654, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "latent", "weight": 0.08483492578364633, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "batchbias", "weight": 0.04883898267529022, "source": "county remaining" } ], "candidate_benchmarks": { "Abdul El-Sayed": { "opponent": "Haley Stevens", "expected_remaining_share_points": 41.824986232102596, "expected_final_county_share_points": 39.6584142617343, "current_county_share_points": 36.98823529411765, "recent_batch_votes": 350, "recent_batch_share_points": 36.857142857142854, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 40.632280170813765, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 40.632280170813765, "required_final_county_share_points": 38.99996839999035, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 40.632280170813765, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": -839.74439934318, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": false }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 40.632280170813765, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 40.632280170813765, "required_final_county_share_points": 38.99996839999035, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 40.632280170813765, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 41.265494949753275, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 41.265494949753275, "required_final_county_share_points": 39.349541244734084, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.024044322225107804, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999973, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 41.900958568092356, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 41.900958568092356, "required_final_county_share_points": 39.70035558480045, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.003259695682198218, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.9999999999999996, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": 1.1927060612888312, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -3.7751373136709105, "status": "ABOVE", "recent_status": "WELL BELOW", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.0021332774723736474, "criticality_score": 0.0017886028600109906, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -996.1248912735012, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -97.58151200592323, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 372.10303415744244, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Haley Stevens": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 52.617310696089746, "expected_final_county_share_points": 54.28010752593613, "current_county_share_points": 56.32941176470588, "recent_batch_votes": 350, "recent_batch_share_points": 58.857142857142854, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 53.81001675737858, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 53.81001675737858, "required_final_county_share_points": 54.93855338768008, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 53.81001675737858, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 934.1866962713723, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 53.81001675737858, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 53.81001675737858, "required_final_county_share_points": 54.93855338768008, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 53.81001675737858, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 54.44098836678847, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 54.44098836678847, "required_final_county_share_points": 55.2868878672122, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.07865391656842785, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.999999999999999, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 55.0697224697066, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 55.0697224697066, "required_final_county_share_points": 55.63398710787204, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.10597932088248406, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -1.1927060612888312, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": 5.047126099764277, "status": "BELOW", "recent_status": "WELL ABOVE", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.0021332774723736474, "criticality_score": 0.0017886028600109906, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1090.5671882016936, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1989.1105674692712, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 2458.795113632637, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Mallory McMorrow": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 5.5577030718076745, "expected_final_county_share_points": 6.061478212329574, "current_county_share_points": 6.682352941176471, "recent_batch_votes": 350, "recent_batch_share_points": 4.285714285714286, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 35.43310255073383, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 35.43310255073383, "required_final_county_share_points": 22.554505114187876, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 35.43310255073383, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 21231.160742928903, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 35.43310255073383, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 35.43310255073383, "required_final_county_share_points": 22.554505114187876, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 35.43310255073383, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 35.90706834318055, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 35.90706834318055, "required_final_county_share_points": 22.816162889539076, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.159018308558073, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999906, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 36.37514221222855, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 36.37514221222855, "required_final_county_share_points": 23.074567966924274, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.213613509684069, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.999999999999993, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -29.875399478926155, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -31.147388265019543, "status": "WELL BELOW", "recent_status": "WELL BELOW", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.0021332774723736474, "criticality_score": 7.140582250217081e-05, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1043.5075805774115, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1942.0509598449892, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 2411.735506008355, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } } } }, { "cid": "fips:26051", "county": "Gladwin", "fips": "26051", "reporting": 0.0, "current_votes": 0, "current_candidate_votes": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 0, "Haley Stevens": 0, "Mallory McMorrow": 0 }, "current_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": null, "Haley Stevens": null, "Mallory McMorrow": null }, "estimated_remaining_votes": 2590.3361413120724, "estimated_final_votes": 2590.3361413120724, "turnout_disagreement_votes": 0.0, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 49.097174862354414, "Haley Stevens": 47.03323172214603, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.8695934154995495 }, "remaining_sources": [ { "model": "v3", "remaining_votes": 2590.3361413120724, "weight": 0.1342208488636769 }, { "model": "histgeo", "remaining_votes": 2590.3361413120724, "weight": 0.05994207394479305 }, { "model": "latent", "remaining_votes": 2590.3361413120724, "weight": 0.07672787409296966 }, { "model": "batchbias", "remaining_votes": 2590.3361413120724, "weight": 0.045123489075924846 } ], "share_sources": [ { "model": "v0", "weight": 0.03630604611298715, "source": "statewide raw" }, { "model": "v3", "weight": 0.15004242351696637, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "market", "weight": 0.0786646379365536, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "histgeo", "weight": 0.06573339512824654, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "latent", "weight": 0.08483492578364633, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "batchbias", "weight": 0.04883898267529022, "source": "county remaining" } ], "candidate_benchmarks": { "Abdul El-Sayed": { "opponent": "Haley Stevens", "expected_remaining_share_points": 49.097174862354414, "expected_final_county_share_points": 49.097174862354414, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 47.86336733204149, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 47.86336733204149, "required_final_county_share_points": 47.86336733204149, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 47.86336733204149, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": -842.208270476059, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": false }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 47.86336733204149, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 47.86336733204149, "required_final_county_share_points": 47.86336733204149, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 47.86336733204149, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.5194723317759, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.5194723317759, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.5194723317759, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.024044322225107804, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999973, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 49.17547490885187, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 49.17547490885187, "required_final_county_share_points": 49.17547490885187, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.003259695682198218, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.9999999999999996, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": 1.233807530312923, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "ABOVE", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.0021099748917925505, "criticality_score": 0.0017101329339896398, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -1000.3158298841454, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -91.84892992329259, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 383.022816347165, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Haley Stevens": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 47.03323172214603, "expected_final_county_share_points": 47.033231722146034, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.26703925245896, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.26703925245896, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.26703925245896, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 48.26703925245896, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 938.3386770605597, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.26703925245896, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.26703925245896, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.26703925245896, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 48.26703925245896, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.92324019040962, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.92324019040962, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.92324019040963, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.07865391656842785, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.999999999999999, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 49.57953056676023, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 49.57953056676023, "required_final_county_share_points": 49.57953056676023, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.10597932088248406, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -1.2338075303129301, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.0021099748917925505, "criticality_score": 0.00171013293398963, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1096.4462364686458, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 2004.9131364294985, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 2479.784882699956, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Mallory McMorrow": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 3.8695934154995495, "expected_final_county_share_points": 3.86959341549955, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 33.767256558424904, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 33.767256558424904, "required_final_county_share_points": 33.767256558424904, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 33.767256558424904, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 21463.888373072437, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 33.767256558424904, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 33.767256558424904, "required_final_county_share_points": 33.767256558424904, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 33.767256558424904, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 34.42028951167481, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 34.42028951167481, "required_final_county_share_points": 34.42028951167481, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.159018308558073, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999906, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 35.072791030119745, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 35.072791030119745, "required_final_county_share_points": 35.072791030119745, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.213613509684069, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.999999999999993, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -29.897663142925353, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "WELL BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.0021099748917925505, "criticality_score": 7.05732378382165e-05, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1053.2825981619994, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1961.7494981228522, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 2436.6212443933096, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } } } }, { "cid": "26051", "county": "26051", "fips": null, "reporting": 0.0, "current_votes": 0, "current_candidate_votes": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 0, "Haley Stevens": 0, "Mallory McMorrow": 0 }, "current_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": null, "Haley Stevens": null, "Mallory McMorrow": null }, "estimated_remaining_votes": 2590.3361413120724, "estimated_final_votes": 2590.3361413120724, "turnout_disagreement_votes": 0.0, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 47.866155366725685, "Haley Stevens": 48.07259662711275, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.061248006161554 }, "remaining_sources": [ { "model": "market", "remaining_votes": 2590.3361413120724, "weight": 0.1780093144963334 } ], "share_sources": [ { "model": "v0", "weight": 0.03630604611298715, "source": "statewide raw" }, { "model": "v3", "weight": 0.06301781787712588, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "market", "weight": 0.18729675699179427, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "histgeo", "weight": 0.02760802595386354, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "latent", "weight": 0.03563066882913146, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "batchbias", "weight": 0.020512372723621893, "source": "statewide fallback" } ], "candidate_benchmarks": { "Abdul El-Sayed": { "opponent": "Haley Stevens", "expected_remaining_share_points": 47.866155366725685, "expected_final_county_share_points": 47.866155366725685, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 46.63499237555791, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 46.63499237555791, "required_final_county_share_points": 46.63499237555791, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 46.63499237555791, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": -843.4392899716851, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": false }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 46.63499237555791, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 46.63499237555791, "required_final_county_share_points": 46.63499237555791, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 46.63499237555791, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 47.28950516908663, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 47.28950516908663, "required_final_county_share_points": 47.28950516908664, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.024044322225107804, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999973, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 47.94433799359388, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 47.94433799359388, "required_final_county_share_points": 47.94433799359388, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.003259695682198218, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.9999999999999996, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": 1.2311629911677784, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "ABOVE", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.0021099748917925505, "criticality_score": 0.0017138063009766113, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -1001.5468493797741, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -93.07994941892133, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 381.79179685153633, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Haley Stevens": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 48.07259662711275, "expected_final_county_share_points": 48.07259662711275, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 49.30375961828052, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 49.30375961828052, "required_final_county_share_points": 49.303759618280516, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 49.30375961828052, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 939.3780419655236, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 49.30375961828052, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 49.30375961828052, "required_final_county_share_points": 49.303759618280516, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 49.30375961828052, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 49.95794612902271, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 49.95794612902271, "required_final_county_share_points": 49.95794612902271, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.07865391656842785, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.999999999999999, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 50.61180010634276, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 50.61180010634276, "required_final_county_share_points": 50.61180010634276, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.10597932088248406, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -1.2311629911677713, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.0021099748917925505, "criticality_score": 0.001713806300976621, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1097.4856013736126, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 2005.9525013344653, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 2480.824247604923, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Mallory McMorrow": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 4.061248006161554, "expected_final_county_share_points": 4.061248006161554, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 33.98016158619869, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 33.98016158619869, "required_final_county_share_points": 33.98016158619869, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 33.98016158619869, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 21464.080027663098, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 33.98016158619869, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 33.98016158619869, "required_final_county_share_points": 33.98016158619869, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 33.98016158619869, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 34.60618224899911, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 34.60618224899911, "required_final_county_share_points": 34.60618224899911, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.159018308558073, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999906, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 35.23057058958013, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 35.23057058958013, "required_final_county_share_points": 35.23057058958013, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.213613509684069, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.999999999999993, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -29.918913580037135, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "WELL BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.0021099748917925505, "criticality_score": 7.052311194883741e-05, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1053.4742527526614, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1961.9411527135142, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 2436.8128989839715, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } } } }, { "cid": "fips:26067", "county": "Ionia", "fips": "26067", "reporting": 53.0, "current_votes": 5141, "current_candidate_votes": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 2455, "Haley Stevens": 2478, "Mallory McMorrow": 208 }, "current_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 47.753355378331065, "Haley Stevens": 48.20073915580627, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.045905465862672 }, "estimated_remaining_votes": 2507.4500000000003, "estimated_final_votes": 7648.450000000001, "turnout_disagreement_votes": 1352.012225500406, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 48.31789410644857, "Haley Stevens": 47.71965950059066, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.962446392960773 }, "remaining_sources": [ { "model": "v3", "remaining_votes": 1155.4377744995945, "weight": 0.1342208488636769 }, { "model": "histgeo", "remaining_votes": 1155.4377744995945, "weight": 0.05994207394479305 }, { "model": "latent", "remaining_votes": 1155.4377744995945, "weight": 0.07672787409296966 }, { "model": "batchbias", "remaining_votes": 1155.4377744995945, "weight": 0.045123489075924846 } ], "share_sources": [ { "model": "v0", "weight": 0.03630604611298715, "source": "statewide raw" }, { "model": "v1", "weight": 0.14599140026529184, "source": "county live" }, { "model": "v3", "weight": 0.15004242351696637, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "market", "weight": 0.0786646379365536, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "histgeo", "weight": 0.06573339512824654, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "latent", "weight": 0.08483492578364633, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "batchbias", "weight": 0.04883898267529022, "source": "county remaining" } ], "candidate_benchmarks": { "Abdul El-Sayed": { "opponent": "Haley Stevens", "expected_remaining_share_points": 48.31789410644857, "expected_final_county_share_points": 47.93843243758074, "current_county_share_points": 47.753355378331065, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 47.085240180454335, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 47.085240180454335, "required_final_county_share_points": 47.53432205093584, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 47.085240180454335, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": -872.4504992845821, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": false }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 47.085240180454335, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 47.085240180454335, "required_final_county_share_points": 47.53432205093584, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 47.085240180454335, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 47.74061161574997, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 47.74061161574997, "required_final_county_share_points": 47.74917749294462, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.024044322225107804, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999973, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.396153505501104, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.396153505501104, "required_final_county_share_points": 47.96408881634432, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.003259695682198218, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.9999999999999996, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": 1.232653925994235, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "ABOVE", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.0020424594546039794, "criticality_score": 0.001656960977880771, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -1035.7844542385853, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -97.28731804271487, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 393.2817648312577, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Haley Stevens": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 47.71965950059066, "expected_final_county_share_points": 48.04302312426125, "current_county_share_points": 48.20073915580627, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.952313426584894, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.952313426584894, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.44713351090616, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 48.952313426584894, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 968.4880528916212, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.952313426584894, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.952313426584894, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.44713351090616, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 48.952313426584894, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 49.60750797680143, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 49.60750797680143, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.661930963323385, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.07865391656842785, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.999999999999999, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 50.262519206744194, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 50.262519206744194, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.87666831644984, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.10597932088248406, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -1.232653925994235, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.0020424594546039794, "criticality_score": 0.001656960977880771, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1131.8220078456247, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 2070.319144041495, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 2560.888226915468, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Mallory McMorrow": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 3.962446392960773, "expected_final_county_share_points": 4.018544438157991, "current_county_share_points": 4.045905465862672, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 33.8067514742809, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 33.8067514742809, "required_final_county_share_points": 13.802631772997884, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 33.8067514742809, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 22173.362529418006, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 33.8067514742809, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 33.8067514742809, "required_final_county_share_points": 13.802631772997884, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 33.8067514742809, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 34.44377800755872, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 34.44377800755872, "required_final_county_share_points": 14.011473065137785, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.159018308558073, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999906, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 35.07966717182443, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 35.07966717182443, "required_final_county_share_points": 14.219941484874868, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.213613509684069, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.999999999999993, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -29.84430508132013, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "WELL BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.0020424594546039794, "criticality_score": 6.84371590840752e-05, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1088.0647947379948, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 2026.5619309338651, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 2517.131013807838, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } } } }, { "cid": "26109", "county": "26109", "fips": null, "reporting": 0.0, "current_votes": 0, "current_candidate_votes": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 0, "Haley Stevens": 0, "Mallory McMorrow": 0 }, "current_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": null, "Haley Stevens": null, "Mallory McMorrow": null }, "estimated_remaining_votes": 2394.3909432300134, "estimated_final_votes": 2394.3909432300134, "turnout_disagreement_votes": 0.0, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 49.45326057381173, "Haley Stevens": 46.839178974492555, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.707560451695713 }, "remaining_sources": [ { "model": "market", "remaining_votes": 2394.3909432300134, "weight": 0.1780093144963334 } ], "share_sources": [ { "model": "v0", "weight": 0.03630604611298715, "source": "statewide raw" }, { "model": "v3", "weight": 0.06301781787712588, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "market", "weight": 0.18729675699179427, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "histgeo", "weight": 0.02760802595386354, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "latent", "weight": 0.03563066882913146, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "batchbias", "weight": 0.020512372723621893, "source": "statewide fallback" } ], "candidate_benchmarks": { "Abdul El-Sayed": { "opponent": "Haley Stevens", "expected_remaining_share_points": 49.45326057381173, "expected_final_county_share_points": 49.45326057381173, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.21753450149631, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.21753450149631, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.21753450149632, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 48.21753450149631, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": -914.7922460074215, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": false }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.21753450149631, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.21753450149631, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.21753450149632, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 48.21753450149631, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.874704590997396, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.874704590997396, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.874704590997396, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.024044322225107804, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999973, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 49.531670216098654, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 49.531670216098654, "required_final_county_share_points": 49.53167021609865, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.003259695682198218, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.9999999999999996, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": 1.2357260723154226, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "ABOVE", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.001950366475909103, "criticality_score": 0.00157831619774327, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -1085.8385517526865, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -103.02718136726328, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 410.70573694764585, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Haley Stevens": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 46.839178974492555, "expected_final_county_share_points": 46.839178974492555, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.07490504680796, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.07490504680796, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.074905046807956, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 48.07490504680796, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1011.0846855557257, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.07490504680796, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.07490504680796, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.074905046807956, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 48.07490504680796, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.73227317566207, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.73227317566207, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.73227317566208, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.07865391656842785, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.999999999999999, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 49.3898328994224, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 49.3898328994224, "required_final_county_share_points": 49.3898328994224, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.10597932088248406, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -1.2357260723154084, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.001950366475909103, "criticality_score": 0.001578316197743288, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1182.130991300991, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 2164.9423616864137, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 2678.6752800013232, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Mallory McMorrow": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 3.707560451695713, "expected_final_county_share_points": 3.707560451695713, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 33.27257907093374, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 33.27257907093374, "required_final_county_share_points": 33.27257907093374, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 33.27257907093374, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 23219.90890608179, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 33.27257907093374, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 33.27257907093374, "required_final_county_share_points": 33.27257907093374, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 33.27257907093374, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 33.937107256748334, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 33.937107256748334, "required_final_county_share_points": 33.937107256748334, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.159018308558073, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999906, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 34.60191950368675, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 34.60191950368675, "required_final_county_share_points": 34.60191950368675, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.213613509684069, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.999999999999993, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -29.565018619238025, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "WELL BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.001950366475909103, "criticality_score": 6.596872138074674e-05, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1138.999372778194, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 2121.810743163617, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 2635.5436614785267, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } } } }, { "cid": "fips:26109", "county": "Menominee", "fips": "26109", "reporting": 0.0, "current_votes": 0, "current_candidate_votes": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 0, "Haley Stevens": 0, "Mallory McMorrow": 0 }, "current_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": null, "Haley Stevens": null, "Mallory McMorrow": null }, "estimated_remaining_votes": 2394.3909432300134, "estimated_final_votes": 2394.3909432300134, "turnout_disagreement_votes": 0.0, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 49.158633168958325, "Haley Stevens": 46.97750573983265, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.8638610912090225 }, "remaining_sources": [ { "model": "v3", "remaining_votes": 2394.3909432300134, "weight": 0.1342208488636769 }, { "model": "histgeo", "remaining_votes": 2394.3909432300134, "weight": 0.05994207394479305 }, { "model": "latent", "remaining_votes": 2394.3909432300134, "weight": 0.07672787409296966 }, { "model": "batchbias", "remaining_votes": 2394.3909432300134, "weight": 0.045123489075924846 } ], "share_sources": [ { "model": "v0", "weight": 0.03630604611298715, "source": "statewide raw" }, { "model": "v3", "weight": 0.15004242351696637, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "market", "weight": 0.0786646379365536, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "histgeo", "weight": 0.06573339512824654, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "latent", "weight": 0.08483492578364633, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "batchbias", "weight": 0.04883898267529022, "source": "county remaining" } ], "candidate_benchmarks": { "Abdul El-Sayed": { "opponent": "Haley Stevens", "expected_remaining_share_points": 49.158633168958325, "expected_final_county_share_points": 49.15863316895833, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 47.924779857819296, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 47.924779857819296, "required_final_county_share_points": 47.92477985781929, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 47.924779857819296, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": -915.0868734122743, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": false }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 47.924779857819296, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 47.924779857819296, "required_final_county_share_points": 47.92477985781929, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 47.924779857819296, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.5809188097206, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.5809188097206, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.5809188097206, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.024044322225107804, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999973, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 49.23693351679498, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 49.23693351679498, "required_final_county_share_points": 49.23693351679498, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.003259695682198218, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.9999999999999996, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": 1.233853311139029, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "ABOVE", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.001950366475909103, "criticality_score": 0.001580711789887427, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -1086.1331791575399, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -103.3218087721167, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 410.4111095427924, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Haley Stevens": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 46.97750573983265, "expected_final_county_share_points": 46.97750573983265, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.21135905097168, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.21135905097168, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.21135905097168, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 48.21135905097168, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1011.2230123210651, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.21135905097168, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.21135905097168, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.21135905097168, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 48.21135905097168, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.86761577390726, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.86761577390726, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.86761577390726, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.07865391656842785, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.999999999999999, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 49.52398377784789, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 49.52398377784789, "required_final_county_share_points": 49.52398377784789, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.10597932088248406, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -1.233853311139029, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.001950366475909103, "criticality_score": 0.001580711789887427, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1182.269318066331, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 2165.080688451754, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 2678.8136067666637, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Mallory McMorrow": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 3.8638610912090225, "expected_final_county_share_points": 3.8638610912090225, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 33.76927744870776, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 33.76927744870776, "required_final_county_share_points": 33.76927744870776, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 33.76927744870776, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 23220.06520672131, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 33.76927744870776, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 33.76927744870776, "required_final_county_share_points": 33.76927744870776, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 33.76927744870776, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 34.42351003107981, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 34.42351003107981, "required_final_county_share_points": 34.42351003107981, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.159018308558073, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999906, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 35.07725426483747, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 35.07725426483747, "required_final_county_share_points": 35.07725426483747, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.213613509684069, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.999999999999993, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -29.905416357498737, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "WELL BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.001950366475909103, "criticality_score": 6.521783387309542e-05, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1139.1556734177072, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 2121.9670438031303, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 2635.69996211804, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } } } }, { "cid": "26129", "county": "26129", "fips": null, "reporting": 0.0, "current_votes": 0, "current_candidate_votes": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 0, "Haley Stevens": 0, "Mallory McMorrow": 0 }, "current_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": null, "Haley Stevens": null, "Mallory McMorrow": null }, "estimated_remaining_votes": 2287.5117442761625, "estimated_final_votes": 2287.5117442761625, "turnout_disagreement_votes": 0.0, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 47.866155366725685, "Haley Stevens": 48.07259662711275, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.061248006161554 }, "remaining_sources": [ { "model": "market", "remaining_votes": 2287.5117442761625, "weight": 0.1780093144963334 } ], "share_sources": [ { "model": "v0", "weight": 0.03630604611298715, "source": "statewide raw" }, { "model": "v3", "weight": 0.06301781787712588, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "market", "weight": 0.18729675699179427, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "histgeo", "weight": 0.02760802595386354, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "latent", "weight": 0.03563066882913146, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "batchbias", "weight": 0.020512372723621893, "source": "statewide fallback" } ], "candidate_benchmarks": { "Abdul El-Sayed": { "opponent": "Haley Stevens", "expected_remaining_share_points": 47.866155366725685, "expected_final_county_share_points": 47.86615536672569, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 46.63499237555791, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 46.63499237555791, "required_final_county_share_points": 46.6349923755579, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 46.63499237555791, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": -961.4317045395243, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": false }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 46.63499237555791, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 46.63499237555791, "required_final_county_share_points": 46.6349923755579, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 46.63499237555791, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 47.28950516908663, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 47.28950516908663, "required_final_county_share_points": 47.289505169086624, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.024044322225107804, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999973, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 47.94433799359388, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 47.94433799359388, "required_final_county_share_points": 47.94433799359388, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.003259695682198218, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.9999999999999996, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": 1.2311629911677784, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "ABOVE", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.0018633073399726766, "criticality_score": 0.0015134530142148757, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -1140.46979095556, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -111.73861611345214, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 425.99739767106996, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Haley Stevens": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 48.07259662711275, "expected_final_county_share_points": 48.07259662711275, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 49.30375961828052, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 49.30375961828052, "required_final_county_share_points": 49.30375961828052, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 49.30375961828052, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1057.3704565333628, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 49.30375961828052, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 49.30375961828052, "required_final_county_share_points": 49.30375961828052, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 49.30375961828052, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 49.95794612902271, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 49.95794612902271, "required_final_county_share_points": 49.95794612902271, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.07865391656842785, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.999999999999999, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 50.61180010634276, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 50.61180010634276, "required_final_county_share_points": 50.61180010634276, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.10597932088248406, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -1.2311629911677713, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.0018633073399726766, "criticality_score": 0.0015134530142148844, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1236.4085429493985, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 2265.139717791506, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 2802.8757315760286, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Mallory McMorrow": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 4.061248006161554, "expected_final_county_share_points": 4.061248006161554, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 33.98016158619869, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 33.98016158619869, "required_final_county_share_points": 33.98016158619869, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 33.98016158619869, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 24304.99101471697, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 33.98016158619869, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 33.98016158619869, "required_final_county_share_points": 33.98016158619869, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 33.98016158619869, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 34.60618224899911, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 34.60618224899911, "required_final_county_share_points": 34.60618224899911, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.159018308558073, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999906, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 35.23057058958013, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 35.23057058958013, "required_final_county_share_points": 35.23057058958013, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.213613509684069, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.999999999999993, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -29.918913580037135, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "WELL BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.0018633073399726766, "criticality_score": 6.22785762253057e-05, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1192.3971943284473, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 2221.1283691705544, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 2758.864382955077, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } } } }, { "cid": "fips:26129", "county": "Ogemaw", "fips": "26129", "reporting": 0.0, "current_votes": 0, "current_candidate_votes": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 0, "Haley Stevens": 0, "Mallory McMorrow": 0 }, "current_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": null, "Haley Stevens": null, "Mallory McMorrow": null }, "estimated_remaining_votes": 2287.5117442761625, "estimated_final_votes": 2287.5117442761625, "turnout_disagreement_votes": 0.0, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 49.17026802919363, "Haley Stevens": 46.960971292186954, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.868760678619411 }, "remaining_sources": [ { "model": "v3", "remaining_votes": 2287.5117442761625, "weight": 0.1342208488636769 }, { "model": "histgeo", "remaining_votes": 2287.5117442761625, "weight": 0.05994207394479305 }, { "model": "latent", "remaining_votes": 2287.5117442761625, "weight": 0.07672787409296966 }, { "model": "batchbias", "remaining_votes": 2287.5117442761625, "weight": 0.045123489075924846 } ], "share_sources": [ { "model": "v0", "weight": 0.03630604611298715, "source": "statewide raw" }, { "model": "v3", "weight": 0.15004242351696637, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "market", "weight": 0.0786646379365536, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "histgeo", "weight": 0.06573339512824654, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "latent", "weight": 0.08483492578364633, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "batchbias", "weight": 0.04883898267529022, "source": "county remaining" } ], "candidate_benchmarks": { "Abdul El-Sayed": { "opponent": "Haley Stevens", "expected_remaining_share_points": 49.17026802919363, "expected_final_county_share_points": 49.17026802919363, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 47.93648486498287, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 47.93648486498287, "required_final_county_share_points": 47.93648486498287, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 47.93648486498287, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": -960.1275918770546, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": false }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 47.93648486498287, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 47.93648486498287, "required_final_county_share_points": 47.93648486498287, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 47.93648486498287, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.592588835124054, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.592588835124054, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.592588835124054, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.024044322225107804, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999973, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 49.248563296415696, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 49.248563296415696, "required_final_county_share_points": 49.248563296415696, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.003259695682198218, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.9999999999999996, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": 1.233783164210756, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "ABOVE", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.0018633073399726766, "criticality_score": 0.0015102389090911477, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -1139.165678293092, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -110.43450345098418, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 427.30151033353786, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Haley Stevens": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 46.960971292186954, "expected_final_county_share_points": 46.960971292186954, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.19475445639772, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.19475445639772, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.19475445639772, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 48.19475445639772, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1056.258831198435, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.19475445639772, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.19475445639772, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.19475445639772, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 48.19475445639772, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.850981464921446, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.850981464921446, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.85098146492145, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.07865391656842785, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.999999999999999, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 49.50732502491718, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 49.50732502491718, "required_final_county_share_points": 49.50732502491717, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.10597932088248406, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -1.233783164210763, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.0018633073399726766, "criticality_score": 0.001510238909091139, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1235.2969176144727, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 2264.02809245658, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 2801.7641062411026, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Mallory McMorrow": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 3.868760678619411, "expected_final_county_share_points": 3.868760678619411, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 33.792447477993186, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 33.792447477993186, "required_final_county_share_points": 33.792447477993186, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 33.792447477993186, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 24304.79852738943, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 33.792447477993186, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 33.792447477993186, "required_final_county_share_points": 33.792447477993186, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 33.792447477993186, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 34.44669097347726, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 34.44669097347726, "required_final_county_share_points": 34.44669097347726, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.159018308558073, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999906, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 35.10042949443576, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 35.10042949443576, "required_final_county_share_points": 35.10042949443576, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.213613509684069, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.999999999999993, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -29.923686799373776, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "WELL BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.0018633073399726766, "criticality_score": 6.226864197802226e-05, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1192.204707000905, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 2220.9358818430123, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 2758.671895627535, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } } } }, { "cid": "26035", "county": "26035", "fips": null, "reporting": 0.0, "current_votes": 0, "current_candidate_votes": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 0, "Haley Stevens": 0, "Mallory McMorrow": 0 }, "current_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": null, "Haley Stevens": null, "Mallory McMorrow": null }, "estimated_remaining_votes": 2166.541410974669, "estimated_final_votes": 2166.541410974669, "turnout_disagreement_votes": 0.0, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 45.445935915957946, "Haley Stevens": 50.11140943147776, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.442654652564292 }, "remaining_sources": [ { "model": "market", "remaining_votes": 2166.541410974669, "weight": 0.1780093144963334 } ], "share_sources": [ { "model": "v0", "weight": 0.03630604611298715, "source": "statewide raw" }, { "model": "v3", "weight": 0.06301781787712588, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "market", "weight": 0.18729675699179427, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "histgeo", "weight": 0.02760802595386354, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "latent", "weight": 0.03563066882913146, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "batchbias", "weight": 0.020512372723621893, "source": "statewide fallback" } ], "candidate_benchmarks": { "Abdul El-Sayed": { "opponent": "Haley Stevens", "expected_remaining_share_points": 45.445935915957946, "expected_final_county_share_points": 45.44593591595794, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 44.224048574337296, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 44.224048574337296, "required_final_county_share_points": 44.224048574337296, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 44.224048574337296, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": -1020.2067658109314, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": false }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 44.224048574337296, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 44.224048574337296, "required_final_county_share_points": 44.224048574337296, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 44.224048574337296, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 44.873265984696204, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 44.873265984696204, "required_final_county_share_points": 44.873265984696204, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.024044322225107804, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999973, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 45.523628367667136, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 45.523628367667136, "required_final_county_share_points": 45.523628367667136, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.003259695682198218, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.9999999999999996, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": 1.2218873416206506, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "ABOVE", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.0017647701803171578, "criticality_score": 0.001444298602829009, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -1209.2415672113657, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -123.07047801179256, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 444.69039681910385, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Haley Stevens": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 50.11140943147776, "expected_final_county_share_points": 50.11140943147776, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 51.33329677309841, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 51.33329677309841, "required_final_county_share_points": 51.33329677309841, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 51.33329677309841, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1115.764111158367, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 51.33329677309841, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 51.33329677309841, "required_final_county_share_points": 51.33329677309841, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 51.33329677309841, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 51.981365810176314, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 51.981365810176314, "required_final_county_share_points": 51.981365810176314, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.07865391656842785, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.999999999999999, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 52.62828309666362, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 52.62828309666362, "required_final_county_share_points": 52.62828309666362, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.10597932088248406, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -1.2218873416206506, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.0017647701803171578, "criticality_score": 0.001444298602829009, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1304.7989125588015, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 2390.970001758374, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 2958.730876589271, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Mallory McMorrow": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 4.442654652564292, "expected_final_county_share_points": 4.442654652564292, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 34.20747998892426, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 34.20747998892426, "required_final_county_share_points": 34.20747998892426, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 34.20747998892426, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 25662.231588016784, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 34.20747998892426, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 34.20747998892426, "required_final_county_share_points": 34.20747998892426, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 34.20747998892426, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 34.77966281710158, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 34.77966281710158, "required_final_county_share_points": 34.77966281710158, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.159018308558073, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999906, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 35.348458241679495, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 35.348458241679495, "required_final_county_share_points": 35.348458241679495, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.213613509684069, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.999999999999993, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -29.76482533635997, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "WELL BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.0017647701803171578, "criticality_score": 5.9290459808657386e-05, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1259.130157779888, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 2345.3012469794608, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 2913.0621218103574, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } } } }, { "cid": "fips:26035", "county": "Clare", "fips": "26035", "reporting": 24.98, "current_votes": 650, "current_candidate_votes": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 235, "Haley Stevens": 378, "Mallory McMorrow": 37 }, "current_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 36.15384615384615, "Haley Stevens": 58.15384615384615, "Mallory McMorrow": 5.6923076923076925 }, "estimated_remaining_votes": 2166.5414109746685, "estimated_final_votes": 2816.5414109746685, "turnout_disagreement_votes": 4.547473508864641e-13, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 42.38135594609147, "Haley Stevens": 52.81051457809568, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.808129475812841 }, "remaining_sources": [ { "model": "v3", "remaining_votes": 2166.541410974669, "weight": 0.1342208488636769 }, { "model": "histgeo", "remaining_votes": 2166.541410974669, "weight": 0.05994207394479305 }, { "model": "latent", "remaining_votes": 2166.541410974669, "weight": 0.07672787409296966 }, { "model": "batchbias", "remaining_votes": 2166.541410974669, "weight": 0.045123489075924846 } ], "share_sources": [ { "model": "v0", "weight": 0.03630604611298715, "source": "statewide raw" }, { "model": "v1", "weight": 0.14599140026529184, "source": "county live" }, { "model": "v3", "weight": 0.15004242351696637, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "market", "weight": 0.0786646379365536, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "histgeo", "weight": 0.06573339512824654, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "latent", "weight": 0.08483492578364633, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "batchbias", "weight": 0.04883898267529022, "source": "county remaining" } ], "candidate_benchmarks": { "Abdul El-Sayed": { "opponent": "Haley Stevens", "expected_remaining_share_points": 42.38135594609147, "expected_final_county_share_points": 40.94417439101585, "current_county_share_points": 36.15384615384615, "recent_batch_votes": 253, "recent_batch_share_points": 37.15415019762846, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 41.177752821799324, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 41.177752821799324, "required_final_county_share_points": 40.01833818601753, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 41.177752821799324, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": -1023.2713457807967, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": false }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 41.177752821799324, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 41.177752821799324, "required_final_county_share_points": 40.01833818601753, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 41.177752821799324, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 41.81678908809404, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 41.81678908809404, "required_final_county_share_points": 40.50989798650455, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.024044322225107804, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999973, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 42.45801255709152, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 42.45801255709152, "required_final_county_share_points": 41.0031402281626, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.003259695682198218, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.9999999999999996, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": 1.2036031242921439, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -4.023602624170863, "status": "ABOVE", "recent_status": "WELL BELOW", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.0017647701803171576, "criticality_score": 0.001466239281619549, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -1212.3061471812323, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -126.13505798165906, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 441.6258168492374, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Haley Stevens": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 52.81051457809568, "expected_final_county_share_points": 54.04364593228227, "current_county_share_points": 58.15384615384615, "recent_batch_votes": 253, "recent_batch_share_points": 55.73122529644269, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 54.01411770238782, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 54.01411770238782, "required_final_county_share_points": 54.9694821372806, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 54.01411770238782, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1118.463216304984, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 54.01411770238782, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 54.01411770238782, "required_final_county_share_points": 54.9694821372806, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 54.01411770238782, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 54.650971632401145, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 54.650971632401145, "required_final_county_share_points": 55.4593632399477, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.07865391656842785, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.999999999999999, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 55.28564809133886, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 55.28564809133886, "required_final_county_share_points": 55.94756938721094, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.10597932088248406, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -1.2036031242921439, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": 1.7171075940548661, "status": "BELOW", "recent_status": "ABOVE", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.0017647701803171576, "criticality_score": 0.001466239281619549, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1307.4980177054194, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 2393.669106904992, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 2961.429981735889, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Mallory McMorrow": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 4.808129475812841, "expected_final_county_share_points": 5.012179676701871, "current_county_share_points": 5.6923076923076925, "recent_batch_votes": 253, "recent_batch_share_points": 7.114624505928854, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 33.82748144262121, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 33.82748144262121, "required_final_county_share_points": 27.334460297451812, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 33.82748144262121, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 25662.597062840036, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 33.82748144262121, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 33.82748144262121, "required_final_county_share_points": 27.334460297451812, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 33.82748144262121, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 34.3363603894186, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 34.3363603894186, "required_final_county_share_points": 27.725900418699023, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.159018308558073, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999906, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 34.84055919859703, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 34.84055919859703, "required_final_county_share_points": 28.11374048211607, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.213613509684069, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.999999999999993, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -29.019351966808372, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -26.712856936692358, "status": "WELL BELOW", "recent_status": "WELL BELOW", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.0017647701803171576, "criticality_score": 6.081356269897614e-05, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1259.4956326031365, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 2345.666721802709, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 2913.4275966336063, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } } } }, { "cid": "26015", "county": "26015", "fips": null, "reporting": 0.0, "current_votes": 0, "current_candidate_votes": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 0, "Haley Stevens": 0, "Mallory McMorrow": 0 }, "current_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": null, "Haley Stevens": null, "Mallory McMorrow": null }, "estimated_remaining_votes": 2084.356984925492, "estimated_final_votes": 2084.356984925492, "turnout_disagreement_votes": 0.0, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 46.64391631668367, "Haley Stevens": 48.84379756353746, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.512286119778873 }, "remaining_sources": [ { "model": "market", "remaining_votes": 2084.356984925492, "weight": 0.1780093144963334 } ], "share_sources": [ { "model": "v0", "weight": 0.03630604611298715, "source": "statewide raw" }, { "model": "v3", "weight": 0.06301781787712588, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "market", "weight": 0.18729675699179427, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "histgeo", "weight": 0.02760802595386354, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "latent", "weight": 0.03563066882913146, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "batchbias", "weight": 0.020512372723621893, "source": "statewide fallback" } ], "candidate_benchmarks": { "Abdul El-Sayed": { "opponent": "Haley Stevens", "expected_remaining_share_points": 46.64391631668367, "expected_final_county_share_points": 46.64391631668368, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 45.41984231326979, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 45.41984231326979, "required_final_county_share_points": 45.41984231326979, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 45.41984231326979, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": -1061.0265665736888, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": false }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 45.41984231326979, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 45.41984231326979, "required_final_county_share_points": 45.41984231326979, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 45.41984231326979, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 46.07042309822127, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 46.07042309822127, "required_final_county_share_points": 46.07042309822127, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.024044322225107804, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999973, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 46.72169308870616, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 46.72169308870616, "required_final_county_share_points": 46.72169308870616, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.003259695682198218, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.9999999999999996, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": 1.2240740034138824, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "ABOVE", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.0016978263297895927, "criticality_score": 0.0013870291543276291, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -1257.5148496803638, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -128.51695672180443, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 461.63024730731416, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Haley Stevens": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 48.84379756353746, "expected_final_county_share_points": 48.84379756353745, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 50.067871566951325, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 50.067871566951325, "required_final_county_share_points": 50.067871566951325, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 50.067871566951325, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1156.5142804539098, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 50.067871566951325, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 50.067871566951325, "required_final_county_share_points": 50.067871566951325, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 50.067871566951325, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 50.71775779792909, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 50.71775779792909, "required_final_county_share_points": 50.71775779792909, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.07865391656842785, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.999999999999999, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 51.36694414022603, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 51.36694414022603, "required_final_county_share_points": 51.36694414022603, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.10597932088248406, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -1.2240740034138682, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.0016978263297895927, "criticality_score": 0.0013870291543276452, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1353.002563560585, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 2482.000456519144, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 3072.147660548263, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Mallory McMorrow": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 4.512286119778873, "expected_final_county_share_points": 4.5122861197788735, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 34.96102339891444, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 34.96102339891444, "required_final_county_share_points": 34.96102339891444, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 34.96102339891444, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 26673.966050618885, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 34.96102339891444, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 34.96102339891444, "required_final_county_share_points": 34.96102339891444, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 34.96102339891444, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 35.55008673250949, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 35.55008673250949, "required_final_county_share_points": 35.55008673250949, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.159018308558073, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999906, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 36.135803215185874, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 36.135803215185874, "required_final_county_share_points": 36.135803215185874, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.213613509684069, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.999999999999993, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -30.44873727913557, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "WELL BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.0016978263297895927, "criticality_score": 5.576015564208623e-05, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1308.6710521168263, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 2437.668945075385, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 3027.8161491045043, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } } } }, { "cid": "fips:26015", "county": "Barry", "fips": "26015", "reporting": 51.57000000000001, "current_votes": 3040, "current_candidate_votes": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 1226, "Haley Stevens": 1638, "Mallory McMorrow": 176 }, "current_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 40.328947368421055, "Haley Stevens": 53.881578947368425, "Mallory McMorrow": 5.7894736842105265 }, "estimated_remaining_votes": 2084.3569849254914, "estimated_final_votes": 5124.356984925491, "turnout_disagreement_votes": 4.547473508864641e-13, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 43.49244399419316, "Haley Stevens": 51.41126400606495, "Mallory McMorrow": 5.096291999741883 }, "remaining_sources": [ { "model": "v3", "remaining_votes": 2084.356984925492, "weight": 0.1342208488636769 }, { "model": "histgeo", "remaining_votes": 2084.356984925492, "weight": 0.05994207394479305 }, { "model": "latent", "remaining_votes": 2084.356984925492, "weight": 0.07672787409296966 }, { "model": "batchbias", "remaining_votes": 2084.356984925492, "weight": 0.045123489075924846 } ], "share_sources": [ { "model": "v0", "weight": 0.03630604611298715, "source": "statewide raw" }, { "model": "v1", "weight": 0.14599140026529184, "source": "county live" }, { "model": "v3", "weight": 0.15004242351696637, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "market", "weight": 0.0786646379365536, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "histgeo", "weight": 0.06573339512824654, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "latent", "weight": 0.08483492578364633, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "batchbias", "weight": 0.04883898267529022, "source": "county remaining" } ], "candidate_benchmarks": { "Abdul El-Sayed": { "opponent": "Haley Stevens", "expected_remaining_share_points": 43.49244399419316, "expected_final_county_share_points": 41.6157149195721, "current_county_share_points": 40.328947368421055, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 42.28555517742893, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 42.28555517742893, "required_final_county_share_points": 41.12480705685856, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 42.28555517742893, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": -1064.1780388961795, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": false }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 42.28555517742893, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 42.28555517742893, "required_final_county_share_points": 41.12480705685856, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 42.28555517742893, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 42.92653693266351, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 42.92653693266351, "required_final_county_share_points": 41.38552948557757, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.024044322225107804, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999973, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 43.56925521223996, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 43.56925521223996, "required_final_county_share_points": 41.64695825397044, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.003259695682198218, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.9999999999999996, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": 1.206888816764227, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "ABOVE", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.0016978263297895923, "criticality_score": 0.0014067794035424166, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -1260.6663220028547, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -131.66842904429498, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 458.47877498482376, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Haley Stevens": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 51.41126400606495, "expected_final_county_share_points": 52.876766398590355, "current_county_share_points": 53.881578947368425, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 52.61815282282918, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 52.61815282282918, "required_final_county_share_points": 53.3676742613039, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 52.61815282282918, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1159.0817468964374, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 52.61815282282918, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 52.61815282282918, "required_final_county_share_points": 53.3676742613039, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 52.61815282282918, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 53.257398750735874, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 53.257398750735874, "required_final_county_share_points": 53.62769063386287, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.07865391656842785, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.999999999999999, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 53.89490956766841, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 53.89490956766841, "required_final_county_share_points": 53.88700124164211, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.10597932088248406, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -1.2068888167642342, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.0016978263297895923, "criticality_score": 0.0014067794035424082, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1355.5700300031128, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 2484.567922961672, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 3074.715126990791, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Mallory McMorrow": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 5.096291999741883, "expected_final_county_share_points": 5.507518681837553, "current_county_share_points": 5.7894736842105265, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 35.14709742579091, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 35.14709742579091, "required_final_county_share_points": 17.730829114089357, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 35.14709742579091, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 26674.550056498854, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 35.14709742579091, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 35.14709742579091, "required_final_county_share_points": 17.730829114089357, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 35.14709742579091, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 35.66348316440048, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 35.66348316440048, "required_final_county_share_points": 17.940871510501832, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.159018308558073, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999906, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 36.17476739848637, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 36.17476739848637, "required_final_county_share_points": 18.148838845278508, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.213613509684069, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.999999999999993, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -30.050805426049028, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "WELL BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.0016978263297895923, "criticality_score": 5.6498529930178197e-05, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1309.2550579967897, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 2438.252950955349, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 3028.400154984468, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } } } }, { "cid": "26117", "county": "26117", "fips": null, "reporting": 0.0, "current_votes": 0, "current_candidate_votes": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 0, "Haley Stevens": 0, "Mallory McMorrow": 0 }, "current_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": null, "Haley Stevens": null, "Mallory McMorrow": null }, "estimated_remaining_votes": 2083.0147443372043, "estimated_final_votes": 2083.0147443372043, "turnout_disagreement_votes": 0.0, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 45.958200225979986, "Haley Stevens": 50.22991264466877, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.8118871293512493 }, "remaining_sources": [ { "model": "market", "remaining_votes": 2083.0147443372043, "weight": 0.1780093144963334 } ], "share_sources": [ { "model": "v0", "weight": 0.03630604611298715, "source": "statewide raw" }, { "model": "v3", "weight": 0.06301781787712588, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "market", "weight": 0.18729675699179427, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "histgeo", "weight": 0.02760802595386354, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "latent", "weight": 0.03563066882913146, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "batchbias", "weight": 0.020512372723621893, "source": "statewide fallback" } ], "candidate_benchmarks": { "Abdul El-Sayed": { "opponent": "Haley Stevens", "expected_remaining_share_points": 45.958200225979986, "expected_final_county_share_points": 45.95820022597999, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 44.727600691994006, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 44.727600691994006, "required_final_county_share_points": 44.727600691994006, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 44.727600691994006, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": -1062.4260367482882, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": false }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 44.727600691994006, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 44.727600691994006, "required_final_county_share_points": 44.727600691994006, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 44.727600691994006, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 45.38148176988802, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 45.38148176988802, "required_final_county_share_points": 45.38148176988802, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.024044322225107804, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999973, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 46.03643721715968, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 46.03643721715968, "required_final_county_share_points": 46.03643721715968, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.003259695682198218, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.9999999999999996, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": 1.2305995339859805, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "ABOVE", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.0016967329991230188, "criticality_score": 0.0013787856668750766, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -1259.0409318001853, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -129.31554192873077, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 461.21193762770497, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Haley Stevens": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 50.22991264466877, "expected_final_county_share_points": 50.22991264466878, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 51.46051217865475, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 51.46051217865475, "required_final_county_share_points": 51.46051217865475, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 51.46051217865475, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1158.6141496189368, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 51.46051217865475, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 51.46051217865475, "required_final_county_share_points": 51.46051217865475, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 51.46051217865475, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 52.11331505963304, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 52.11331505963304, "required_final_county_share_points": 52.11331505963304, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.07865391656842785, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.999999999999999, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 52.76503593863689, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 52.76503593863689, "required_final_county_share_points": 52.76503593863689, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.10597932088248406, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -1.2305995339859805, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.0016967329991230188, "criticality_score": 0.0013787856668750766, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1355.229044670834, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 2484.954434542288, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 3075.481914098724, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Mallory McMorrow": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 3.8118871293512493, "expected_final_county_share_points": 3.8118871293512493, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 32.31217232095501, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 32.31217232095501, "required_final_county_share_points": 32.31217232095501, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 32.31217232095501, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 26690.450754810023, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 32.31217232095501, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 32.31217232095501, "required_final_county_share_points": 32.31217232095501, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 32.31217232095501, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 32.9164985925134, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 32.9164985925134, "required_final_county_share_points": 32.9164985925134, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.159018308558073, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999906, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 33.51957975430659, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 33.51957975430659, "required_final_county_share_points": 33.51957975430659, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.213613509684069, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.999999999999993, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -28.50028519160376, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "WELL BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.0016967329991230188, "criticality_score": 5.9533895458101583e-05, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1308.8110191555165, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 2438.5364090269704, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 3029.0638885834064, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } } } }, { "cid": "fips:26117", "county": "Montcalm", "fips": "26117", "reporting": 63.12, "current_votes": 3207, "current_candidate_votes": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 1280, "Haley Stevens": 1803, "Mallory McMorrow": 124 }, "current_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 39.91269098846274, "Haley Stevens": 56.22076707202993, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.8665419395073277 }, "estimated_remaining_votes": 2083.0147443372043, "estimated_final_votes": 5290.014744337204, "turnout_disagreement_votes": 0.0, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 42.80737331678564, "Haley Stevens": 53.346561235940285, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.846065447274072 }, "remaining_sources": [ { "model": "v3", "remaining_votes": 2083.0147443372043, "weight": 0.1342208488636769 }, { "model": "histgeo", "remaining_votes": 2083.0147443372043, "weight": 0.05994207394479305 }, { "model": "latent", "remaining_votes": 2083.0147443372043, "weight": 0.07672787409296966 }, { "model": "batchbias", "remaining_votes": 2083.0147443372043, "weight": 0.045123489075924846 } ], "share_sources": [ { "model": "v0", "weight": 0.03630604611298715, "source": "statewide raw" }, { "model": "v1", "weight": 0.14599140026529184, "source": "county live" }, { "model": "v3", "weight": 0.15004242351696637, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "market", "weight": 0.0786646379365536, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "histgeo", "weight": 0.06573339512824654, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "latent", "weight": 0.08483492578364633, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "batchbias", "weight": 0.04883898267529022, "source": "county remaining" } ], "candidate_benchmarks": { "Abdul El-Sayed": { "opponent": "Haley Stevens", "expected_remaining_share_points": 42.80737331678564, "expected_final_county_share_points": 41.05251124634076, "current_county_share_points": 39.91269098846274, "recent_batch_votes": 860, "recent_batch_share_points": 41.27906976744186, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 41.59162035676937, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 41.59162035676937, "required_final_county_share_points": 40.573792100255886, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 41.59162035676937, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": -1065.5768636574817, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": false }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 41.59162035676937, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 41.59162035676937, "required_final_county_share_points": 40.573792100255886, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 41.59162035676937, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 42.237107035777385, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 42.237107035777385, "required_final_county_share_points": 40.82796119705968, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.024044322225107804, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999973, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 42.88480384344459, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 42.88480384344459, "required_final_county_share_points": 41.08300056186961, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.003259695682198218, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.9999999999999996, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": 1.2157529600162746, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -0.31255058932750757, "status": "ABOVE", "recent_status": "ON BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.0016967329991230188, "criticality_score": 0.0013956231692829318, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -1262.1917587093794, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -132.46636883792513, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 458.06111071851063, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Haley Stevens": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 53.346561235940285, "expected_final_county_share_points": 55.08900970949258, "current_county_share_points": 56.22076707202993, "recent_batch_votes": 860, "recent_batch_share_points": 56.04651162790698, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 54.56231419595655, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 54.56231419595655, "required_final_county_share_points": 55.56772885557746, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 54.56231419595655, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1161.7307982102077, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 54.56231419595655, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 54.56231419595655, "required_final_county_share_points": 55.56772885557746, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 54.56231419595655, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 55.20559567050708, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 55.20559567050708, "required_final_county_share_points": 55.82102962334603, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.07865391656842785, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.999999999999999, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 55.84667686351869, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 55.84667686351869, "required_final_county_share_points": 56.07346400054507, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.10597932088248406, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -1.2157529600162675, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": 1.4841974319504274, "status": "BELOW", "recent_status": "ABOVE", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.0016967329991230188, "criticality_score": 0.00139562316928294, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1358.3456932621054, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 2488.0710831335596, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 3078.5985626899956, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Mallory McMorrow": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 3.846065447274072, "expected_final_county_share_points": 3.858479044166661, "current_county_share_points": 3.8665419395073277, "recent_batch_votes": 860, "recent_batch_share_points": 2.6744186046511627, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 31.12770222751637, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 31.12770222751637, "required_final_county_share_points": 14.60099194996329, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 31.12770222751637, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 26690.484933127955, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 31.12770222751637, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 31.12770222751637, "required_final_county_share_points": 14.60099194996329, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 31.12770222751637, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 31.679501030689057, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 31.679501030689057, "required_final_county_share_points": 14.81827018045343, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.159018308558073, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999906, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 32.22911009206892, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 32.22911009206892, "required_final_county_share_points": 15.034686170541377, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.213613509684069, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.999999999999993, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -27.281636780242298, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -28.453283622865207, "status": "WELL BELOW", "recent_status": "WELL BELOW", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.0016967329991230188, "criticality_score": 6.219322589734843e-05, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1308.8451974734392, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 2438.5705873448933, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 3029.0980669013293, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } } } }, { "cid": "fips:26007", "county": "Alpena", "fips": "26007", "reporting": 58.050000000000004, "current_votes": 2009, "current_candidate_votes": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 978, "Haley Stevens": 912, "Mallory McMorrow": 119 }, "current_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 48.680935788949725, "Haley Stevens": 45.39571926331508, "Mallory McMorrow": 5.923344947735192 }, "estimated_remaining_votes": 1885.4507611674164, "estimated_final_votes": 3894.450761167416, "turnout_disagreement_votes": 2.2737367544323206e-13, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 48.87476345856507, "Haley Stevens": 45.88735194564049, "Mallory McMorrow": 5.23788459579443 }, "remaining_sources": [ { "model": "v3", "remaining_votes": 1885.4507611674162, "weight": 0.1342208488636769 }, { "model": "histgeo", "remaining_votes": 1885.4507611674162, "weight": 0.05994207394479305 }, { "model": "latent", "remaining_votes": 1885.4507611674162, "weight": 0.07672787409296966 }, { "model": "batchbias", "remaining_votes": 1885.4507611674162, "weight": 0.045123489075924846 } ], "share_sources": [ { "model": "v0", "weight": 0.03630604611298715, "source": "statewide raw" }, { "model": "v1", "weight": 0.14599140026529184, "source": "county live" }, { "model": "v3", "weight": 0.15004242351696637, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "market", "weight": 0.0786646379365536, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "histgeo", "weight": 0.06573339512824654, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "latent", "weight": 0.08483492578364633, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "batchbias", "weight": 0.04883898267529022, "source": "county remaining" } ], "candidate_benchmarks": { "Abdul El-Sayed": { "opponent": "Haley Stevens", "expected_remaining_share_points": 48.87476345856507, "expected_final_county_share_points": 48.774775087383176, "current_county_share_points": 48.680935788949725, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 47.65885199838829, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 47.65885199838829, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.18610640758832, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 47.65885199838829, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": -1175.6497669931387, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": false }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 47.65885199838829, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 47.65885199838829, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.18610640758832, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 47.65885199838829, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.30551854728727, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.30551854728727, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.49918211751913, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.024044322225107804, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999973, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.95190659218088, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.95190659218088, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.81212299313797, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.003259695682198218, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.9999999999999996, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": 1.2159114601767769, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "ABOVE", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.001535805991480053, "criticality_score": 0.0012630903168366944, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -1392.8666436066842, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -144.76476122324732, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 507.6402085521047, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Haley Stevens": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 45.88735194564049, "expected_final_county_share_points": 45.633737220647625, "current_county_share_points": 45.39571926331508, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 47.103263405817266, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 47.103263405817266, "required_final_county_share_points": 46.22240590044248, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 47.103263405817266, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1270.4118823973442, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 47.103263405817266, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 47.103263405817266, "required_final_county_share_points": 46.22240590044248, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 47.103263405817266, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 47.750202221307795, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 47.750202221307795, "required_final_county_share_points": 46.53561342491756, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.07865391656842785, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.999999999999999, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.39740704390426, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.39740704390426, "required_final_county_share_points": 46.84894973348344, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.10597932088248406, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -1.2159114601767769, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.001535805991480053, "criticality_score": 0.0012630903168366944, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1487.6287590108896, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 2735.730641394326, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 3388.135611169678, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Mallory McMorrow": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 5.23788459579443, "expected_final_county_share_points": 5.591487691969201, "current_county_share_points": 5.923344947735192, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 38.15721357611214, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 38.15721357611214, "required_final_county_share_points": 21.528978673227606, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 38.15721357611214, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 29488.194100202436, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 38.15721357611214, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 38.15721357611214, "required_final_county_share_points": 21.528978673227606, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 38.15721357611214, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 38.75531521341979, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 38.75531521341979, "required_final_county_share_points": 21.818542274483445, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.159018308558073, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999906, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 39.348650337640095, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 39.348650337640095, "required_final_county_share_points": 22.105798226656066, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.213613509684069, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.999999999999993, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -32.919328980317715, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "WELL BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.001535805991480053, "criticality_score": 4.665362384507603e-05, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1446.9792916610436, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 2695.08117404448, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 3347.4861438198323, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } } } }, { "cid": "26007", "county": "26007", "fips": null, "reporting": 0.0, "current_votes": 0, "current_candidate_votes": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 0, "Haley Stevens": 0, "Mallory McMorrow": 0 }, "current_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": null, "Haley Stevens": null, "Mallory McMorrow": null }, "estimated_remaining_votes": 1885.4507611674164, "estimated_final_votes": 1885.4507611674164, "turnout_disagreement_votes": 2.2737367544323206e-13, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 48.74909884299047, "Haley Stevens": 46.39513307510219, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.85576808190735 }, "remaining_sources": [ { "model": "market", "remaining_votes": 1885.4507611674162, "weight": 0.1780093144963334 } ], "share_sources": [ { "model": "v0", "weight": 0.03630604611298715, "source": "statewide raw" }, { "model": "v3", "weight": 0.06301781787712588, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "market", "weight": 0.18729675699179427, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "histgeo", "weight": 0.02760802595386354, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "latent", "weight": 0.03563066882913146, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "batchbias", "weight": 0.020512372723621893, "source": "statewide fallback" } ], "candidate_benchmarks": { "Abdul El-Sayed": { "opponent": "Haley Stevens", "expected_remaining_share_points": 48.74909884299047, "expected_final_county_share_points": 48.74909884299047, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 47.52803068647186, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 47.52803068647186, "required_final_county_share_points": 47.52803068647186, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 47.52803068647186, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": -1175.7754316087141, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": false }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 47.52803068647186, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 47.52803068647186, "required_final_county_share_points": 47.52803068647186, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 47.52803068647186, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.17738677593538, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.17738677593538, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.177386775935375, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.024044322225107804, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999973, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.82658349959149, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.82658349959149, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.82658349959149, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.003259695682198218, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.9999999999999996, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": 1.2210681565186121, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "ABOVE", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.001535805991480053, "criticality_score": 0.001257756156592266, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -1392.9923082222588, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -144.89042583882193, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 507.51454393653006, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Haley Stevens": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 46.39513307510219, "expected_final_county_share_points": 46.39513307510219, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 47.6162012316208, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 47.6162012316208, "required_final_county_share_points": 47.6162012316208, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 47.6162012316208, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1270.9196635268067, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 47.6162012316208, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 47.6162012316208, "required_final_county_share_points": 47.6162012316208, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 47.6162012316208, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.26571030323427, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.26571030323427, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.26571030323427, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.07865391656842785, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.999999999999999, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.915365955839, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.915365955839, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.91536595583901, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.10597932088248406, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -1.2210681565186121, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.001535805991480053, "criticality_score": 0.001257756156592266, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1488.1365401403514, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 2736.2384225237874, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 3388.6433922991396, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Mallory McMorrow": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 4.85576808190735, "expected_final_county_share_points": 4.85576808190735, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 36.97153175493867, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 36.97153175493867, "required_final_county_share_points": 36.97153175493867, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 36.97153175493867, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 29487.81198368855, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 36.97153175493867, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 36.97153175493867, "required_final_county_share_points": 36.97153175493867, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 36.97153175493867, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 37.581893983030355, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 37.581893983030355, "required_final_county_share_points": 37.581893983030355, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.159018308558073, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999906, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 38.188383587640025, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 38.188383587640025, "required_final_county_share_points": 38.188383587640025, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.213613509684069, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.999999999999993, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -32.11576367303132, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "WELL BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.001535805991480053, "criticality_score": 4.782093949613039e-05, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1446.5971751471566, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 2694.6990575305927, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 3347.104027305945, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } } } }, { "cid": "26053", "county": "26053", "fips": null, "reporting": 0.0, "current_votes": 0, "current_candidate_votes": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 0, "Haley Stevens": 0, "Mallory McMorrow": 0 }, "current_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": null, "Haley Stevens": null, "Mallory McMorrow": null }, "estimated_remaining_votes": 1803.7504679250026, "estimated_final_votes": 1803.7504679250026, "turnout_disagreement_votes": 2.2737367544323206e-13, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 49.18170843815538, "Haley Stevens": 45.45365704777212, "Mallory McMorrow": 5.364634514072509 }, "remaining_sources": [ { "model": "market", "remaining_votes": 1803.7504679250023, "weight": 0.1780093144963334 } ], "share_sources": [ { "model": "v0", "weight": 0.03630604611298715, "source": "statewide raw" }, { "model": "v3", "weight": 0.06301781787712588, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "market", "weight": 0.18729675699179427, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "histgeo", "weight": 0.02760802595386354, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "latent", "weight": 0.03563066882913146, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "batchbias", "weight": 0.020512372723621893, "source": "statewide fallback" } ], "candidate_benchmarks": { "Abdul El-Sayed": { "opponent": "Haley Stevens", "expected_remaining_share_points": 49.18170843815538, "expected_final_county_share_points": 49.18170843815538, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 47.967856258444506, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 47.967856258444506, "required_final_county_share_points": 47.967856258444506, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 47.967856258444506, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": -1230.8072640189469, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": false }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 47.967856258444506, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 47.967856258444506, "required_final_county_share_points": 47.967856258444506, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 47.967856258444506, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.61348870054192, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.61348870054192, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.61348870054192, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.024044322225107804, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999973, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 49.258704367844174, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 49.258704367844174, "required_final_county_share_points": 49.258704367844174, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.003259695682198218, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.9999999999999996, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": 1.2138521797108766, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "ABOVE", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.0014692564944305063, "criticality_score": 0.0012104080867412239, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -1457.8629087060717, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -153.2286557977696, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 528.7267857813522, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Haley Stevens": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 45.45365704777212, "expected_final_county_share_points": 45.45365704777211, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 46.667509227482995, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 46.667509227482995, "required_final_county_share_points": 46.667509227482995, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 46.667509227482995, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1325.4426295048745, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 46.667509227482995, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 46.667509227482995, "required_final_county_share_points": 46.667509227482995, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 46.667509227482995, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 47.31355243907429, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 47.31355243907429, "required_final_county_share_points": 47.31355243907429, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.07865391656842785, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.999999999999999, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 47.96000038765792, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 47.96000038765792, "required_final_county_share_points": 47.96000038765792, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.10597932088248406, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -1.2138521797108766, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.0014692564944305063, "criticality_score": 0.0012104080867412239, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1552.4982741919991, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 2857.1325271003006, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 3539.087968679423, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Mallory McMorrow": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 5.364634514072509, "expected_final_county_share_points": 5.364634514072509, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 38.66247254553269, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 38.66247254553269, "required_final_county_share_points": 38.66247254553269, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 38.66247254553269, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 30823.741802908775, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 38.66247254553269, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 38.66247254553269, "required_final_county_share_points": 38.66247254553269, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 38.66247254553269, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 39.2608626515715, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 39.2608626515715, "required_final_county_share_points": 39.2608626515715, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.159018308558073, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999906, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 39.85425418481526, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 39.85425418481526, "required_final_county_share_points": 39.85425418481526, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.213613509684069, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.999999999999993, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -33.29783803146018, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "WELL BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.0014692564944305063, "criticality_score": 4.412468139950515e-05, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1512.4092516582996, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 2817.043504566601, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 3498.998946145723, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } } } }, { "cid": "fips:26053", "county": "Gogebic", "fips": "26053", "reporting": 12.08, "current_votes": 281, "current_candidate_votes": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 137, "Haley Stevens": 118, "Mallory McMorrow": 26 }, "current_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 48.754448398576514, "Haley Stevens": 41.99288256227758, "Mallory McMorrow": 9.252669039145907 }, "estimated_remaining_votes": 1803.7504679250026, "estimated_final_votes": 2084.7504679250023, "turnout_disagreement_votes": 2.2737367544323206e-13, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 48.98109738774873, "Haley Stevens": 44.79657419156991, "Mallory McMorrow": 6.222328420681346 }, "remaining_sources": [ { "model": "v3", "remaining_votes": 1803.7504679250023, "weight": 0.1342208488636769 }, { "model": "histgeo", "remaining_votes": 1803.7504679250023, "weight": 0.05994207394479305 }, { "model": "latent", "remaining_votes": 1803.7504679250023, "weight": 0.07672787409296966 }, { "model": "batchbias", "remaining_votes": 1803.7504679250023, "weight": 0.045123489075924846 } ], "share_sources": [ { "model": "v0", "weight": 0.03630604611298715, "source": "statewide raw" }, { "model": "v1", "weight": 0.14599140026529184, "source": "county live" }, { "model": "v3", "weight": 0.15004242351696637, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "market", "weight": 0.0786646379365536, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "histgeo", "weight": 0.06573339512824654, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "latent", "weight": 0.08483492578364633, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "batchbias", "weight": 0.04883898267529022, "source": "county remaining" } ], "candidate_benchmarks": { "Abdul El-Sayed": { "opponent": "Haley Stevens", "expected_remaining_share_points": 48.98109738774873, "expected_final_county_share_points": 48.9505477527026, "current_county_share_points": 48.754448398576514, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 47.77861414884298, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 47.77861414884298, "required_final_county_share_points": 47.910145201788644, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 47.77861414884298, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": -1231.0078750693542, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": false }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 47.77861414884298, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 47.77861414884298, "required_final_county_share_points": 47.910145201788644, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 47.77861414884298, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.41823981475325, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.41823981475325, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.46355680280908, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.024044322225107804, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999973, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 49.05736127840411, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 49.05736127840411, "required_final_county_share_points": 49.01653216214241, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.003259695682198218, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.9999999999999996, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": 1.2024832389057494, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "ABOVE", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.0014692564944305063, "criticality_score": 0.0012218519534355576, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -1458.0635197564782, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -153.42926684817627, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 528.5261747309455, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Haley Stevens": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 44.79657419156991, "expected_final_county_share_points": 44.41866932479931, "current_county_share_points": 41.99288256227758, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 45.99905743047566, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 45.99905743047566, "required_final_county_share_points": 45.45907187571326, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 45.99905743047566, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1324.785546648673, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 45.99905743047566, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 45.99905743047566, "required_final_county_share_points": 45.45907187571326, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 45.99905743047566, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 46.639181544542666, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 46.639181544542666, "required_final_county_share_points": 46.012914739903934, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.07865391656842785, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.999999999999999, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 47.279798322496156, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 47.279798322496156, "required_final_county_share_points": 46.56718386264664, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.10597932088248406, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -1.2024832389057494, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.0014692564944305063, "criticality_score": 0.0012218519534355576, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1551.841191335797, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 2856.4754442440985, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 3538.4308858232207, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Mallory McMorrow": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 6.222328420681346, "expected_final_county_share_points": 6.630782922498095, "current_county_share_points": 9.252669039145907, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 40.80800943377436, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 40.80800943377436, "required_final_county_share_points": 36.55471831461411, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 40.80800943377436, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 30824.599496815375, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 40.80800943377436, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 40.80800943377436, "required_final_county_share_points": 36.55471831461411, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 40.80800943377436, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 41.37269393957982, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 41.37269393957982, "required_final_county_share_points": 37.043289948124944, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.159018308558073, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999906, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 41.93086349656179, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 41.93086349656179, "required_final_county_share_points": 37.526224771777876, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.213613509684069, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.999999999999993, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -34.585681013093016, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "WELL BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.0014692564944305063, "criticality_score": 4.248164128600774e-05, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1513.2669455649084, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 2817.9011984732097, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 3499.856640052332, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } } } }, { "cid": "fips:26071", "county": "Iron", "fips": "26071", "reporting": 0.0, "current_votes": 0, "current_candidate_votes": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 0, "Haley Stevens": 0, "Mallory McMorrow": 0 }, "current_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": null, "Haley Stevens": null, "Mallory McMorrow": null }, "estimated_remaining_votes": 1664.049750378701, "estimated_final_votes": 1664.049750378701, "turnout_disagreement_votes": 0.0, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 49.0757394697093, "Haley Stevens": 47.03656679753884, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.8876937327518637 }, "remaining_sources": [ { "model": "v3", "remaining_votes": 1664.049750378701, "weight": 0.1342208488636769 }, { "model": "histgeo", "remaining_votes": 1664.049750378701, "weight": 0.05994207394479305 }, { "model": "latent", "remaining_votes": 1664.049750378701, "weight": 0.07672787409296966 }, { "model": "batchbias", "remaining_votes": 1664.049750378701, "weight": 0.045123489075924846 } ], "share_sources": [ { "model": "v0", "weight": 0.03630604611298715, "source": "statewide raw" }, { "model": "v3", "weight": 0.15004242351696637, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "market", "weight": 0.0786646379365536, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "histgeo", "weight": 0.06573339512824654, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "latent", "weight": 0.08483492578364633, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "batchbias", "weight": 0.04883898267529022, "source": "county remaining" } ], "candidate_benchmarks": { "Abdul El-Sayed": { "opponent": "Haley Stevens", "expected_remaining_share_points": 49.0757394697093, "expected_final_county_share_points": 49.0757394697093, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 47.84215892429268, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 47.84215892429268, "required_final_county_share_points": 47.84215892429268, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 47.84215892429268, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": -1338.3711848081925, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": false }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 47.84215892429268, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 47.84215892429268, "required_final_county_share_points": 47.84215892429268, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 47.84215892429268, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.49814121865617, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.49814121865617, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.49814121865617, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.024044322225107804, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999973, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 49.15402565364959, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 49.15402565364959, "required_final_county_share_points": 49.15402565364959, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.003259695682198218, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.9999999999999996, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": 1.2335805454166149, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "ABOVE", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.001355462380343524, "criticality_score": 0.0010988033050454327, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -1584.488661317661, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -170.32742988885806, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 568.8797041360738, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Haley Stevens": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 47.03656679753884, "expected_final_county_share_points": 47.03656679753884, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.270147342955454, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.270147342955454, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.270147342955454, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 48.270147342955454, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1434.4834910754407, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.270147342955454, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.270147342955454, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.270147342955454, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 48.270147342955454, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.92622101144557, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.92622101144557, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.92622101144557, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.07865391656842785, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.999999999999999, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 49.58237955362736, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 49.58237955362736, "required_final_county_share_points": 49.58237955362736, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.10597932088248406, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -1.2335805454166149, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.001355462380343524, "criticality_score": 0.0010988033050454327, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1680.600967584909, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 3094.762199013712, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 3833.969333038644, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Mallory McMorrow": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 3.8876937327518637, "expected_final_county_share_points": 3.8876937327518637, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 33.82754775397445, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 33.82754775397445, "required_final_county_share_points": 33.82754775397445, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 33.82754775397445, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 33409.53690916661, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 33.82754775397445, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 33.82754775397445, "required_final_county_share_points": 33.82754775397445, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 33.82754775397445, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 34.47957876983034, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 34.47957876983034, "required_final_county_share_points": 34.47957876983034, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.159018308558073, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999906, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 35.1309972829674, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 35.1309972829674, "required_final_county_share_points": 35.1309972829674, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.213613509684069, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.999999999999993, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -29.939854021222587, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "WELL BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.001355462380343524, "criticality_score": 4.527284533126705e-05, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1637.452094520122, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 3051.6133259489247, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 3790.820459973857, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } } } }, { "cid": "26071", "county": "26071", "fips": null, "reporting": 0.0, "current_votes": 0, "current_candidate_votes": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 0, "Haley Stevens": 0, "Mallory McMorrow": 0 }, "current_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": null, "Haley Stevens": null, "Mallory McMorrow": null }, "estimated_remaining_votes": 1664.0497503787008, "estimated_final_votes": 1664.0497503787008, "turnout_disagreement_votes": 2.2737367544323206e-13, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 48.973903537573875, "Haley Stevens": 46.149745434179586, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.8763510282465425 }, "remaining_sources": [ { "model": "market", "remaining_votes": 1664.049750378701, "weight": 0.1780093144963334 } ], "share_sources": [ { "model": "v0", "weight": 0.03630604611298715, "source": "statewide raw" }, { "model": "v3", "weight": 0.06301781787712588, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "market", "weight": 0.18729675699179427, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "histgeo", "weight": 0.02760802595386354, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "latent", "weight": 0.03563066882913146, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "batchbias", "weight": 0.020512372723621893, "source": "statewide fallback" } ], "candidate_benchmarks": { "Abdul El-Sayed": { "opponent": "Haley Stevens", "expected_remaining_share_points": 48.973903537573875, "expected_final_county_share_points": 48.973903537573875, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 47.75327342108671, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 47.75327342108671, "required_final_county_share_points": 47.75327342108671, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 47.75327342108671, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": -1338.4730207403295, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": false }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 47.75327342108671, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 47.75327342108671, "required_final_county_share_points": 47.75327342108671, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 47.75327342108671, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.402435191598066, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.402435191598066, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.402435191598066, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.024044322225107804, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999973, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 49.05134992915548, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 49.05134992915548, "required_final_county_share_points": 49.05134992915548, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.003259695682198218, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.9999999999999996, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": 1.2206301164871647, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "ABOVE", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.0013554623803435238, "criticality_score": 0.0011104611970777774, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -1584.5904972497965, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -170.42926582099352, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 568.7778682039383, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Haley Stevens": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 46.149745434179586, "expected_final_county_share_points": 46.149745434179586, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 47.37037555066674, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 47.37037555066674, "required_final_county_share_points": 47.37037555066674, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 47.37037555066674, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1433.5966697120828, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 47.37037555066674, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 47.37037555066674, "required_final_county_share_points": 47.37037555066674, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 47.37037555066674, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.01977805349677, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.01977805349677, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.01977805349677, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.07865391656842785, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.999999999999999, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.6694149671013, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.6694149671013, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.6694149671013, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.10597932088248406, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -1.2206301164871576, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.0013554623803435238, "criticality_score": 0.0011104611970777839, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1679.71414622155, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 3093.875377650353, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 3833.0825116752853, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Mallory McMorrow": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 4.8763510282465425, "expected_final_county_share_points": 4.876351028246543, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 37.136501345834354, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 37.136501345834354, "required_final_county_share_points": 37.13650134583436, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 37.136501345834354, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 33410.52556646211, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 37.136501345834354, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 37.136501345834354, "required_final_county_share_points": 37.13650134583436, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 37.136501345834354, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 37.749746513256014, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 37.749746513256014, "required_final_county_share_points": 37.749746513256014, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.159018308558073, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999906, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 38.359105897231565, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 38.359105897231565, "required_final_county_share_points": 38.359105897231565, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.213613509684069, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.999999999999993, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -32.260150317587815, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "WELL BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.0013554623803435238, "criticality_score": 4.201661700269708e-05, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1638.440751815617, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 3052.60198324442, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 3791.809117269352, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } } } }, { "cid": "26151", "county": "26151", "fips": null, "reporting": 0.0, "current_votes": 0, "current_candidate_votes": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 0, "Haley Stevens": 0, "Mallory McMorrow": 0 }, "current_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": null, "Haley Stevens": null, "Mallory McMorrow": null }, "estimated_remaining_votes": 1585.2325585258732, "estimated_final_votes": 1585.2325585258732, "turnout_disagreement_votes": 0.0, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 44.77543062705778, "Haley Stevens": 51.51673444802286, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.707834924919356 }, "remaining_sources": [ { "model": "market", "remaining_votes": 1585.2325585258732, "weight": 0.1780093144963334 } ], "share_sources": [ { "model": "v0", "weight": 0.03630604611298715, "source": "statewide raw" }, { "model": "v3", "weight": 0.06301781787712588, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "market", "weight": 0.18729675699179427, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "histgeo", "weight": 0.02760802595386354, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "latent", "weight": 0.03563066882913146, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "batchbias", "weight": 0.020512372723621893, "source": "statewide fallback" } ], "candidate_benchmarks": { "Abdul El-Sayed": { "opponent": "Haley Stevens", "expected_remaining_share_points": 44.77543062705778, "expected_final_county_share_points": 44.77543062705779, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 43.54792094614167, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 43.54792094614167, "required_final_county_share_points": 43.54792094614167, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 43.54792094614167, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": -1411.6548550058005, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": false }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 43.54792094614167, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 43.54792094614167, "required_final_county_share_points": 43.54792094614167, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 43.54792094614167, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 44.19995967493985, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 44.19995967493985, "required_final_county_share_points": 44.19995967493985, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.024044322225107804, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999973, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 44.853525653420476, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 44.853525653420476, "required_final_county_share_points": 44.853525653420476, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.003259695682198218, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.9999999999999996, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": 1.227509680916107, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "ABOVE", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.0012912613319935493, "criticality_score": 0.0010519357623557507, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -1670.0092038025844, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -185.53638528904273, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 590.4238611975715, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Haley Stevens": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 51.51673444802286, "expected_final_county_share_points": 51.51673444802286, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 52.74424412893895, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 52.74424412893895, "required_final_county_share_points": 52.74424412893895, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 52.74424412893895, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1507.9470200808814, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 52.74424412893895, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 52.74424412893895, "required_final_county_share_points": 52.74424412893895, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 52.74424412893895, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 53.39475451115378, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 53.39475451115378, "required_final_county_share_points": 53.39475451115378, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.07865391656842785, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.999999999999999, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 54.04373547383289, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 54.04373547383289, "required_final_county_share_points": 54.04373547383289, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.10597932088248406, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -1.2275096809160928, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.0012912613319935493, "criticality_score": 0.0010519357623557629, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1766.301368877665, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 3250.7741873912064, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 4026.734433877821, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Mallory McMorrow": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 3.707834924919356, "expected_final_county_share_points": 3.7078349249193563, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 31.45902167325829, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 31.45902167325829, "required_final_county_share_points": 31.45902167325829, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 31.45902167325829, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 35070.273897555955, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 31.45902167325829, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 31.45902167325829, "required_final_county_share_points": 31.45902167325829, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 31.45902167325829, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 32.04801582799303, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 32.04801582799303, "required_final_county_share_points": 32.04801582799303, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.159018308558073, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999906, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 32.635819333711815, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 32.635819333711815, "required_final_county_share_points": 32.635819333711815, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.213613509684069, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.999999999999993, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -27.751186748338935, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "WELL BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.0012912613319935493, "criticality_score": 4.652995000550161e-05, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1718.4924693545615, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 3202.965287868103, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 3978.925534354718, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } } } }, { "cid": "fips:26151", "county": "Sanilac", "fips": "26151", "reporting": 47.64, "current_votes": 1531, "current_candidate_votes": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 561, "Haley Stevens": 911, "Mallory McMorrow": 59 }, "current_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 36.642717178314825, "Haley Stevens": 59.50359242325277, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.8536903984323976 }, "estimated_remaining_votes": 1585.2325585258732, "estimated_final_votes": 3116.232558525873, "turnout_disagreement_votes": 0.0, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 41.270741922655226, "Haley Stevens": 54.89360470263943, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.835653374705344 }, "remaining_sources": [ { "model": "v3", "remaining_votes": 1585.2325585258732, "weight": 0.1342208488636769 }, { "model": "histgeo", "remaining_votes": 1585.2325585258732, "weight": 0.05994207394479305 }, { "model": "latent", "remaining_votes": 1585.2325585258732, "weight": 0.07672787409296966 }, { "model": "batchbias", "remaining_votes": 1585.2325585258732, "weight": 0.045123489075924846 } ], "share_sources": [ { "model": "v0", "weight": 0.03630604611298715, "source": "statewide raw" }, { "model": "v1", "weight": 0.14599140026529184, "source": "county live" }, { "model": "v3", "weight": 0.15004242351696637, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "market", "weight": 0.0786646379365536, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "histgeo", "weight": 0.06573339512824654, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "latent", "weight": 0.08483492578364633, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "batchbias", "weight": 0.04883898267529022, "source": "county remaining" } ], "candidate_benchmarks": { "Abdul El-Sayed": { "opponent": "Haley Stevens", "expected_remaining_share_points": 41.270741922655226, "expected_final_county_share_points": 38.99700087460683, "current_county_share_points": 36.642717178314825, "recent_batch_votes": 129, "recent_batch_share_points": 36.434108527131784, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 40.0657582636228, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 40.0657582636228, "required_final_county_share_points": 38.38402373220337, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 40.0657582636228, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": -1415.1595437102008, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": false }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 40.0657582636228, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 40.0657582636228, "required_final_county_share_points": 38.38402373220337, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 40.0657582636228, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 40.70528102021175, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 40.70528102021175, "required_final_county_share_points": 38.70934999608868, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.024044322225107804, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999973, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 41.347553538131535, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 41.347553538131535, "required_final_county_share_points": 39.03607506802441, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.003259695682198218, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.9999999999999996, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": 1.204983659032429, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -3.6316497364910134, "status": "ABOVE", "recent_status": "WELL BELOW", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.0012912613319935493, "criticality_score": 0.001071600699573303, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -1673.513892506987, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -189.04107399344528, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 586.919172493169, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Haley Stevens": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 54.89360470263943, "expected_final_county_share_points": 57.15848419019532, "current_county_share_points": 59.50359242325277, "recent_batch_votes": 129, "recent_batch_share_points": 61.240310077519375, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 56.09858836167185, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 56.09858836167185, "required_final_county_share_points": 57.77146133259878, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 56.09858836167185, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1511.3238903354957, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 56.09858836167185, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 56.09858836167185, "required_final_county_share_points": 57.77146133259878, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 56.09858836167185, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 56.73537267617203, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 56.73537267617203, "required_final_county_share_points": 58.09539454655048, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.07865391656842785, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.999999999999999, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 57.36942981402198, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 57.36942981402198, "required_final_county_share_points": 58.417940441315466, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.10597932088248406, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -1.2049836590324219, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": 5.141721715847524, "status": "BELOW", "recent_status": "WELL ABOVE", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.0012912613319935493, "criticality_score": 0.0010716006995733092, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1769.6782391322815, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 3254.151057645823, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 4030.111304132438, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Mallory McMorrow": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 3.835653374705344, "expected_final_county_share_points": 3.844514935197858, "current_county_share_points": 3.8536903984323976, "recent_batch_votes": 129, "recent_batch_share_points": 2.3255813953488373, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 30.432537007567394, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 30.432537007567394, "required_final_county_share_points": 17.374392791965256, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 30.432537007567394, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 35070.40171600574, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 30.432537007567394, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 30.432537007567394, "required_final_county_share_points": 17.374392791965256, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 30.432537007567394, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 30.959689995399014, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 30.959689995399014, "required_final_county_share_points": 17.642556372166787, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.159018308558073, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999906, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 31.484334232986456, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 31.484334232986456, "required_final_county_share_points": 17.909443747048726, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.213613509684069, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.999999999999993, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -26.59688363286205, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -28.106955612218556, "status": "WELL BELOW", "recent_status": "WELL BELOW", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.0012912613319935493, "criticality_score": 4.8549346976805895e-05, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1718.6202878043475, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 3203.093106317889, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 3979.053352804504, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } } } }, { "cid": "fips:26165", "county": "Wexford", "fips": "26165", "reporting": 44.65, "current_votes": 1194, "current_candidate_votes": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 525, "Haley Stevens": 618, "Mallory McMorrow": 51 }, "current_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 43.969849246231156, "Haley Stevens": 51.75879396984925, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.271356783919598 }, "estimated_remaining_votes": 1555.6611022108018, "estimated_final_votes": 2749.661102210802, "turnout_disagreement_votes": 0.0, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 46.01856870228579, "Haley Stevens": 49.883040283064226, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.09839101464997 }, "remaining_sources": [ { "model": "v3", "remaining_votes": 1555.6611022108018, "weight": 0.1342208488636769 }, { "model": "histgeo", "remaining_votes": 1555.6611022108018, "weight": 0.05994207394479305 }, { "model": "latent", "remaining_votes": 1555.6611022108018, "weight": 0.07672787409296966 }, { "model": "batchbias", "remaining_votes": 1555.6611022108018, "weight": 0.045123489075924846 } ], "share_sources": [ { "model": "v0", "weight": 0.03630604611298715, "source": "statewide raw" }, { "model": "v1", "weight": 0.14599140026529184, "source": "county live" }, { "model": "v3", "weight": 0.15004242351696637, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "market", "weight": 0.0786646379365536, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "histgeo", "weight": 0.06573339512824654, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "latent", "weight": 0.08483492578364633, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "batchbias", "weight": 0.04883898267529022, "source": "county remaining" } ], "candidate_benchmarks": { "Abdul El-Sayed": { "opponent": "Haley Stevens", "expected_remaining_share_points": 46.01856870228579, "expected_final_county_share_points": 45.128942330307645, "current_county_share_points": 43.969849246231156, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 44.79107675980081, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 44.79107675980081, "required_final_county_share_points": 44.434470758278, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 44.79107675980081, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": -1438.0969013877336, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": false }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 44.79107675980081, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 44.79107675980081, "required_final_county_share_points": 44.434470758278, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 44.79107675980081, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 45.44333885363721, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 45.44333885363721, "required_final_county_share_points": 44.8034976056273, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.024044322225107804, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999973, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 46.09659937031037, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 46.09659937031037, "required_final_county_share_points": 45.173089325341955, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.003259695682198218, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.9999999999999996, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": 1.2274919424849813, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "ABOVE", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.0012671737128836463, "criticality_score": 0.0010323275200636607, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -1701.3622904672616, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -188.67122889216927, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 602.0391932584128, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Haley Stevens": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 49.883040283064226, "expected_final_county_share_points": 50.69755880689997, "current_county_share_points": 51.75879396984925, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 51.1105322255492, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 51.1105322255492, "required_final_county_share_points": 51.3920303789296, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 51.1105322255492, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1533.9985103730835, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 51.1105322255492, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 51.1105322255492, "required_final_county_share_points": 51.3920303789296, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 51.1105322255492, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 51.761791729754094, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 51.761791729754094, "required_final_county_share_points": 51.76048999648831, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.07865391656842785, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.999999999999999, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 52.412044498729884, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 52.412044498729884, "required_final_county_share_points": 52.12838003882377, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.10597932088248406, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -1.2274919424849742, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.0012671737128836463, "criticality_score": 0.0010323275200636666, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1797.2638994526117, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 3309.9549610277036, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 4100.665383178286, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Mallory McMorrow": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 4.09839101464997, "expected_final_county_share_points": 4.1734988627923775, "current_county_share_points": 4.271356783919598, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 33.340635036845015, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 33.340635036845015, "required_final_county_share_points": 20.71772736066405, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 33.340635036845015, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 35737.242428094614, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 33.340635036845015, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 33.340635036845015, "required_final_county_share_points": 20.71772736066405, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 33.340635036845015, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 33.935195924503795, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 33.935195924503795, "required_final_county_share_points": 21.05410890422337, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.159018308558073, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999906, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 34.527520483618154, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 34.527520483618154, "required_final_county_share_points": 21.389225212104908, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.213613509684069, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.999999999999993, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -29.242244022195045, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "WELL BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.0012671737128836463, "criticality_score": 4.3333668644644833e-05, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1751.4792501841973, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 3264.1703117592897, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 4054.880733909872, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } } } }, { "cid": "26165", "county": "26165", "fips": null, "reporting": 0.0, "current_votes": 0, "current_candidate_votes": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 0, "Haley Stevens": 0, "Mallory McMorrow": 0 }, "current_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": null, "Haley Stevens": null, "Mallory McMorrow": null }, "estimated_remaining_votes": 1555.6611022108016, "estimated_final_votes": 1555.6611022108016, "turnout_disagreement_votes": 2.2737367544323206e-13, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 47.135154262806495, "Haley Stevens": 48.80574469593407, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.0591010412594315 }, "remaining_sources": [ { "model": "market", "remaining_votes": 1555.6611022108018, "weight": 0.1780093144963334 } ], "share_sources": [ { "model": "v0", "weight": 0.03630604611298715, "source": "statewide raw" }, { "model": "v3", "weight": 0.06301781787712588, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "market", "weight": 0.18729675699179427, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "histgeo", "weight": 0.02760802595386354, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "latent", "weight": 0.03563066882913146, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "batchbias", "weight": 0.020512372723621893, "source": "statewide fallback" } ], "candidate_benchmarks": { "Abdul El-Sayed": { "opponent": "Haley Stevens", "expected_remaining_share_points": 47.135154262806495, "expected_final_county_share_points": 47.135154262806495, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 45.90481322327478, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 45.90481322327478, "required_final_county_share_points": 45.90481322327478, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 45.90481322327478, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": -1436.9803158272105, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": false }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 45.90481322327478, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 45.90481322327478, "required_final_county_share_points": 45.90481322327478, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 45.90481322327478, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 46.55876907784067, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 46.55876907784067, "required_final_county_share_points": 46.558769077840665, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.024044322225107804, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999973, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 47.21331723965985, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 47.21331723965985, "required_final_county_share_points": 47.213317239659844, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.003259695682198218, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.9999999999999996, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": 1.2303410395317158, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "ABOVE", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.0012671737128836463, "criticality_score": 0.001029936962328713, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -1700.245704906741, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -187.55464333164855, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 603.1557788189334, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Haley Stevens": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 48.80574469593407, "expected_final_county_share_points": 48.805744695934074, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 50.0360857354658, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 50.0360857354658, "required_final_county_share_points": 50.0360857354658, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 50.0360857354658, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1532.921214785951, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 50.0360857354658, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 50.0360857354658, "required_final_county_share_points": 50.0360857354658, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 50.0360857354658, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 50.68944360959574, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 50.68944360959574, "required_final_county_share_points": 50.68944360959574, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.07865391656842785, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.999999999999999, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 51.34219784082158, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 51.34219784082158, "required_final_county_share_points": 51.34219784082158, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.10597932088248406, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -1.23034103953173, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.0012671737128836463, "criticality_score": 0.001029936962328701, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1796.1866038654814, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 3308.8776654405738, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 4099.588087591156, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Mallory McMorrow": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 4.0591010412594315, "expected_final_county_share_points": 4.0591010412594315, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 33.672073812820926, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 33.672073812820926, "required_final_county_share_points": 33.672073812820926, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 33.672073812820926, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 35737.20313812122, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 33.672073812820926, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 33.672073812820926, "required_final_county_share_points": 33.672073812820926, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 33.672073812820926, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 34.286290073197485, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 34.286290073197485, "required_final_county_share_points": 34.28629007319749, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.159018308558073, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999906, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 34.89868615217256, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 34.89868615217256, "required_final_county_share_points": 34.89868615217256, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.213613509684069, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.999999999999993, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -29.612972771561495, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "WELL BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.0012671737128836463, "criticality_score": 4.27911686766066e-05, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1751.439960210807, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 3264.131021785899, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 4054.8414439364815, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } } } }, { "cid": "fips:26011", "county": "Arenac", "fips": "26011", "reporting": 0.0, "current_votes": 0, "current_candidate_votes": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 0, "Haley Stevens": 0, "Mallory McMorrow": 0 }, "current_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": null, "Haley Stevens": null, "Mallory McMorrow": null }, "estimated_remaining_votes": 1502.2465186291217, "estimated_final_votes": 1502.2465186291217, "turnout_disagreement_votes": 0.0, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 49.07978973079111, "Haley Stevens": 47.04349713378837, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.8767131354205167 }, "remaining_sources": [ { "model": "v3", "remaining_votes": 1502.2465186291217, "weight": 0.1342208488636769 }, { "model": "histgeo", "remaining_votes": 1502.2465186291217, "weight": 0.05994207394479305 }, { "model": "latent", "remaining_votes": 1502.2465186291217, "weight": 0.07672787409296966 }, { "model": "batchbias", "remaining_votes": 1502.2465186291217, "weight": 0.045123489075924846 } ], "share_sources": [ { "model": "v0", "weight": 0.03630604611298715, "source": "statewide raw" }, { "model": "v3", "weight": 0.15004242351696637, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "market", "weight": 0.0786646379365536, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "histgeo", "weight": 0.06573339512824654, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "latent", "weight": 0.08483492578364633, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "batchbias", "weight": 0.04883898267529022, "source": "county remaining" } ], "candidate_benchmarks": { "Abdul El-Sayed": { "opponent": "Haley Stevens", "expected_remaining_share_points": 49.07978973079111, "expected_final_county_share_points": 49.07978973079111, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 47.84606758299723, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 47.84606758299723, "required_final_county_share_points": 47.84606758299723, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 47.84606758299723, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": -1487.8055878537245, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": false }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 47.84606758299723, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 47.84606758299723, "required_final_county_share_points": 47.84606758299723, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 47.84606758299723, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.50212492190258, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.50212492190258, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.50212492190258, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.024044322225107804, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999973, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 49.15808497043262, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 49.15808497043262, "required_final_county_share_points": 49.15808497043262, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.003259695682198218, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.9999999999999996, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": 1.233722147793884, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "ABOVE", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.001223664521773101, "criticality_score": 0.0009918477381323115, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -1760.4317648963256, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -193.9547486594797, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 624.8705450578608, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Haley Stevens": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 47.04349713378837, "expected_final_county_share_points": 47.04349713378837, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.27721928158224, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.27721928158224, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.27721928158224, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 48.27721928158224, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1583.928874718304, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.27721928158224, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.27721928158224, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.27721928158224, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 48.27721928158224, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.933367424627214, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.933367424627214, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.933367424627214, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.07865391656842785, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.999999999999999, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 49.589599870405785, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 49.589599870405785, "required_final_county_share_points": 49.589599870405785, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.10597932088248406, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -1.2337221477938698, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.001223664521773101, "criticality_score": 0.0009918477381323228, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1856.5550517609051, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 3423.0320679977503, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 4241.857361715091, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Mallory McMorrow": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 3.8767131354205167, "expected_final_county_share_points": 3.8767131354205167, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 33.78753370847888, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 33.78753370847888, "required_final_county_share_points": 33.78753370847888, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 33.78753370847888, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 37007.565221535966, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 33.78753370847888, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 33.78753370847888, "required_final_county_share_points": 33.78753370847888, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 33.78753370847888, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 34.44002816914223, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 34.44002816914223, "required_final_county_share_points": 34.44002816914223, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.159018308558073, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999906, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 35.09195641479674, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 35.09195641479674, "required_final_county_share_points": 35.09195641479674, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.213613509684069, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.999999999999993, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -29.910820573058366, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "WELL BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.001223664521773101, "criticality_score": 4.091042968160141e-05, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1813.3882677625372, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 3379.865283999383, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 4198.690577716724, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } } } }, { "cid": "26011", "county": "26011", "fips": null, "reporting": 0.0, "current_votes": 0, "current_candidate_votes": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 0, "Haley Stevens": 0, "Mallory McMorrow": 0 }, "current_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": null, "Haley Stevens": null, "Mallory McMorrow": null }, "estimated_remaining_votes": 1502.2465186291215, "estimated_final_votes": 1502.2465186291215, "turnout_disagreement_votes": 2.2737367544323206e-13, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 47.866155366725685, "Haley Stevens": 48.07259662711275, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.061248006161554 }, "remaining_sources": [ { "model": "market", "remaining_votes": 1502.2465186291217, "weight": 0.1780093144963334 } ], "share_sources": [ { "model": "v0", "weight": 0.03630604611298715, "source": "statewide raw" }, { "model": "v3", "weight": 0.06301781787712588, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "market", "weight": 0.18729675699179427, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "histgeo", "weight": 0.02760802595386354, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "latent", "weight": 0.03563066882913146, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "batchbias", "weight": 0.020512372723621893, "source": "statewide fallback" } ], "candidate_benchmarks": { "Abdul El-Sayed": { "opponent": "Haley Stevens", "expected_remaining_share_points": 47.866155366725685, "expected_final_county_share_points": 47.866155366725685, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 46.63499237555791, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 46.63499237555791, "required_final_county_share_points": 46.6349923755579, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 46.63499237555791, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": -1489.0192222177886, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": false }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 46.63499237555791, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 46.63499237555791, "required_final_county_share_points": 46.6349923755579, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 46.63499237555791, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 47.28950516908663, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 47.28950516908663, "required_final_county_share_points": 47.28950516908663, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.024044322225107804, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999973, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 47.94433799359388, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 47.94433799359388, "required_final_county_share_points": 47.94433799359388, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.003259695682198218, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.9999999999999996, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": 1.2311629911677784, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "ABOVE", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.0012236645217731008, "criticality_score": 0.0009939094421709629, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -1761.6453992603913, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -195.16838302354515, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 623.6569106937955, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Haley Stevens": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 48.07259662711275, "expected_final_county_share_points": 48.07259662711275, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 49.30375961828052, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 49.30375961828052, "required_final_county_share_points": 49.30375961828052, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 49.30375961828052, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1584.957974211627, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 49.30375961828052, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 49.30375961828052, "required_final_county_share_points": 49.30375961828052, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 49.30375961828052, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 49.95794612902271, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 49.95794612902271, "required_final_county_share_points": 49.95794612902271, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.07865391656842785, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.999999999999999, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 50.61180010634276, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 50.61180010634276, "required_final_county_share_points": 50.61180010634276, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.10597932088248406, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -1.2311629911677713, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.0012236645217731008, "criticality_score": 0.0009939094421709687, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1857.5841512542297, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 3424.061167491076, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 4242.886461208417, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Mallory McMorrow": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 4.061248006161554, "expected_final_county_share_points": 4.061248006161554, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 33.98016158619869, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 33.98016158619869, "required_final_county_share_points": 33.98016158619869, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 33.98016158619869, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 37007.749756406716, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 33.98016158619869, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 33.98016158619869, "required_final_county_share_points": 33.98016158619869, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 33.98016158619869, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 34.60618224899911, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 34.60618224899911, "required_final_county_share_points": 34.60618224899911, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.159018308558073, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999906, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 35.23057058958013, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 35.23057058958013, "required_final_county_share_points": 35.23057058958013, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.213613509684069, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.999999999999993, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -29.918913580037135, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "WELL BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.0012236645217731008, "criticality_score": 4.089936349124553e-05, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1813.5728026332786, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 3380.0498188701245, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 4198.875112587466, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } } } }, { "cid": "26045", "county": "26045", "fips": null, "reporting": 0.0, "current_votes": 0, "current_candidate_votes": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 0, "Haley Stevens": 0, "Mallory McMorrow": 0 }, "current_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": null, "Haley Stevens": null, "Mallory McMorrow": null }, "estimated_remaining_votes": 1488.4619678716554, "estimated_final_votes": 1488.4619678716554, "turnout_disagreement_votes": 0.0, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 48.76556279685301, "Haley Stevens": 46.474200664652585, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.760236538494406 }, "remaining_sources": [ { "model": "market", "remaining_votes": 1488.4619678716554, "weight": 0.1780093144963334 } ], "share_sources": [ { "model": "v0", "weight": 0.03630604611298715, "source": "statewide raw" }, { "model": "v3", "weight": 0.06301781787712588, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "market", "weight": 0.18729675699179427, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "histgeo", "weight": 0.02760802595386354, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "latent", "weight": 0.03563066882913146, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "batchbias", "weight": 0.020512372723621893, "source": "statewide fallback" } ], "candidate_benchmarks": { "Abdul El-Sayed": { "opponent": "Haley Stevens", "expected_remaining_share_points": 48.76556279685301, "expected_final_county_share_points": 48.76556279685301, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 47.543249302852686, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 47.543249302852686, "required_final_county_share_points": 47.54324930285268, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 47.543249302852686, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": -1502.3528116347456, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": false }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 47.543249302852686, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 47.543249302852686, "required_final_county_share_points": 47.54324930285268, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 47.543249302852686, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.19326232269358, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.19326232269358, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.19326232269358, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.024044322225107804, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999973, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.843127923288584, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.843127923288584, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.843127923288584, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.003259695682198218, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.9999999999999996, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": 1.2223134940003249, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "ABOVE", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.0012124362276806743, "criticality_score": 0.0009919192037328127, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -1777.5037622062482, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -196.51970285590093, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 629.8886793557215, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Haley Stevens": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 46.474200664652585, "expected_final_county_share_points": 46.47420066465259, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 47.69651415865292, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 47.69651415865292, "required_final_county_share_points": 47.69651415865291, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 47.69651415865292, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1597.5925750962513, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 47.69651415865292, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 47.69651415865292, "required_final_county_share_points": 47.69651415865291, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 47.69651415865292, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.34666819922362, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.34666819922362, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.34666819922362, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.07865391656842785, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.999999999999999, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.996956844964686, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.996956844964686, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.996956844964686, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.10597932088248406, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -1.222313494000332, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.0012124362276806743, "criticality_score": 0.0009919192037328068, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1872.7435256677536, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 3453.7275850181004, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 4280.135967229724, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Mallory McMorrow": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 4.760236538494406, "expected_final_county_share_points": 4.760236538494406, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 36.68463407623901, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 36.68463407623901, "required_final_county_share_points": 36.68463407623901, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 36.68463407623901, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 37351.13752938067, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 36.68463407623901, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 36.68463407623901, "required_final_county_share_points": 36.68463407623901, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 36.68463407623901, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 37.29887475682021, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 37.29887475682021, "required_final_county_share_points": 37.29887475682021, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.159018308558073, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999906, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 37.909499380383444, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 37.909499380383444, "required_final_county_share_points": 37.90949938038344, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.213613509684069, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.999999999999993, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -31.9243975377446, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "WELL BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.0012124362276806743, "criticality_score": 3.7978358910209544e-05, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1831.0295615415955, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 3412.0136208919425, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 4238.422003103566, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } } } }, { "cid": "fips:26045", "county": "Eaton", "fips": "26045", "reporting": 92.34, "current_votes": 15102, "current_candidate_votes": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 7203, "Haley Stevens": 7006, "Mallory McMorrow": 893 }, "current_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 47.695669447755265, "Haley Stevens": 46.39120646272017, "Mallory McMorrow": 5.913124089524566 }, "estimated_remaining_votes": 1484.270588417996, "estimated_final_votes": 16586.270588417996, "turnout_disagreement_votes": 0.0, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 48.06409868224863, "Haley Stevens": 46.58482593648643, "Mallory McMorrow": 5.351075381264948 }, "remaining_sources": [ { "model": "v3", "remaining_votes": 1484.270588417996, "weight": 0.1342208488636769 }, { "model": "histgeo", "remaining_votes": 1484.270588417996, "weight": 0.05994207394479305 }, { "model": "latent", "remaining_votes": 1484.270588417996, "weight": 0.07672787409296966 }, { "model": "batchbias", "remaining_votes": 1484.270588417996, "weight": 0.045123489075924846 } ], "share_sources": [ { "model": "v0", "weight": 0.03630604611298715, "source": "statewide raw" }, { "model": "v1", "weight": 0.14599140026529184, "source": "county live" }, { "model": "v3", "weight": 0.15004242351696637, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "market", "weight": 0.0786646379365536, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "histgeo", "weight": 0.06573339512824654, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "latent", "weight": 0.08483492578364633, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "batchbias", "weight": 0.04883898267529022, "source": "county remaining" } ], "candidate_benchmarks": { "Abdul El-Sayed": { "opponent": "Haley Stevens", "expected_remaining_share_points": 48.06409868224863, "expected_final_county_share_points": 47.72863940768427, "current_county_share_points": 47.695669447755265, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 46.84922443905993, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 46.84922443905993, "required_final_county_share_points": 47.61992285816345, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 46.84922443905993, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": -1507.4344243122302, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": false }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 46.84922443905993, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 46.84922443905993, "required_final_county_share_points": 47.61992285816345, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 46.84922443905993, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 47.495215862592346, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 47.495215862592346, "required_final_county_share_points": 47.67773127659049, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.024044322225107804, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999973, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.141209481717006, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.141209481717006, "required_final_county_share_points": 47.73553989149648, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.003259695682198218, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.9999999999999996, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": 1.2148742431886959, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "ABOVE", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.0012090221127061145, "criticality_score": 0.000995182933118064, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -1783.3623639650239, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -197.91381939571988, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 630.8282283486985, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Haley Stevens": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 46.58482593648643, "expected_final_county_share_points": 46.40853306358106, "current_county_share_points": 46.39120646272017, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 47.79970017967511, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 47.79970017967511, "required_final_county_share_points": 46.51724961310188, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 47.79970017967511, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1602.0833489309653, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 47.79970017967511, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 47.79970017967511, "required_final_county_share_points": 46.51724961310188, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 47.79970017967511, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.445683001053254, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.445683001053254, "required_final_county_share_points": 46.57505726174017, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.07865391656842785, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.999999999999999, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 49.091650802664844, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 49.091650802664844, "required_final_county_share_points": 46.632863566291036, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.10597932088248406, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -1.2148742431886816, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.0012090221127061145, "criticality_score": 0.0009951829331180757, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1878.0112885837589, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 3463.459833153063, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 4292.201880897482, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Mallory McMorrow": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 5.351075381264948, "expected_final_county_share_points": 5.862827528734668, "current_county_share_points": 5.913124089524566, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 38.0852555421124, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 38.0852555421124, "required_final_county_share_points": 8.792140697099898, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 38.0852555421124, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 37457.189488099604, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 38.0852555421124, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 38.0852555421124, "required_final_county_share_points": 8.792140697099898, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 38.0852555421124, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 38.66607228508408, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 38.66607228508408, "required_final_county_share_points": 8.844116769976436, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.159018308558073, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999906, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 39.24178105195122, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 39.24178105195122, "required_final_county_share_points": 8.895635740778225, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.213613509684069, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.999999999999993, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -32.73418016084745, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "WELL BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.0012090221127061145, "criticality_score": 3.693454690984429e-05, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1836.7775380285375, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 3422.226082597841, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 4250.96813034226, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } } } }, { "cid": "26141", "county": "26141", "fips": null, "reporting": 0.0, "current_votes": 0, "current_candidate_votes": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 0, "Haley Stevens": 0, "Mallory McMorrow": 0 }, "current_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": null, "Haley Stevens": null, "Mallory McMorrow": null }, "estimated_remaining_votes": 1451.5801453614304, "estimated_final_votes": 1451.5801453614304, "turnout_disagreement_votes": 0.0, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 44.49545659611195, "Haley Stevens": 51.19162968761485, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.312913716273204 }, "remaining_sources": [ { "model": "market", "remaining_votes": 1451.5801453614304, "weight": 0.1780093144963334 } ], "share_sources": [ { "model": "v0", "weight": 0.03630604611298715, "source": "statewide raw" }, { "model": "v3", "weight": 0.06301781787712588, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "market", "weight": 0.18729675699179427, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "histgeo", "weight": 0.02760802595386354, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "latent", "weight": 0.03563066882913146, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "batchbias", "weight": 0.020512372723621893, "source": "statewide fallback" } ], "candidate_benchmarks": { "Abdul El-Sayed": { "opponent": "Haley Stevens", "expected_remaining_share_points": 44.49545659611195, "expected_final_county_share_points": 44.49545659611195, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 43.27565444415839, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 43.27565444415839, "required_final_county_share_points": 43.27565444415839, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 43.27565444415839, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": -1546.033812756408, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": false }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 43.27565444415839, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 43.27565444415839, "required_final_county_share_points": 43.27565444415839, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 43.27565444415839, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 43.92359924936351, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 43.92359924936351, "required_final_county_share_points": 43.92359924936351, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.024044322225107804, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999973, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 44.57306120286155, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 44.57306120286155, "required_final_county_share_points": 44.57306120286155, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.003259695682198218, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.9999999999999996, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": 1.2198021519535587, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "ABOVE", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.00118239390297269, "criticality_score": 0.0009693325274750844, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -1828.1758127404603, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -207.02202962061628, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 640.3837789963544, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Haley Stevens": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 51.19162968761485, "expected_final_county_share_points": 51.19162968761485, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 52.4114318395684, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 52.4114318395684, "required_final_county_share_points": 52.4114318395684, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 52.4114318395684, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1641.720899040135, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 52.4114318395684, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 52.4114318395684, "required_final_county_share_points": 52.4114318395684, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 52.4114318395684, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 53.057858402878686, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 53.057858402878686, "required_final_county_share_points": 53.057858402878686, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.07865391656842785, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.999999999999999, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 53.70276565449549, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 53.70276565449549, "required_final_county_share_points": 53.70276565449549, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.10597932088248406, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -1.2198021519535516, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.00118239390297269, "criticality_score": 0.00096933252747509, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1923.862899024187, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 3545.0166821440307, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 4392.422490761002, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Mallory McMorrow": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 4.312913716273204, "expected_final_county_share_points": 4.312913716273204, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 33.377220084490844, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 33.377220084490844, "required_final_county_share_points": 33.377220084490844, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 33.377220084490844, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 38299.58886924408, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 33.377220084490844, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 33.377220084490844, "required_final_county_share_points": 33.377220084490844, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 33.377220084490844, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 33.93882994982512, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 33.93882994982512, "required_final_county_share_points": 33.93882994982512, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.159018308558073, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999906, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 34.49722375388291, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 34.49722375388291, "required_final_county_share_points": 34.49722375388291, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.213613509684069, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.999999999999993, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -29.06430636821764, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "WELL BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.00118239390297269, "criticality_score": 4.068199281940063e-05, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1876.9841830528455, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 3498.137966172689, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 4345.54377478966, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } } } }, { "cid": "fips:26141", "county": "Presque Isle", "fips": "26141", "reporting": 21.17, "current_votes": 344, "current_candidate_votes": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 107, "Haley Stevens": 219, "Mallory McMorrow": 18 }, "current_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 31.1046511627907, "Haley Stevens": 63.662790697674424, "Mallory McMorrow": 5.232558139534884 }, "estimated_remaining_votes": 1451.5801453614304, "estimated_final_votes": 1795.5801453614304, "turnout_disagreement_votes": 0.0, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 40.046781280512405, "Haley Stevens": 55.40365979279625, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.549558926691354 }, "remaining_sources": [ { "model": "v3", "remaining_votes": 1451.5801453614304, "weight": 0.1342208488636769 }, { "model": "histgeo", "remaining_votes": 1451.5801453614304, "weight": 0.05994207394479305 }, { "model": "latent", "remaining_votes": 1451.5801453614304, "weight": 0.07672787409296966 }, { "model": "batchbias", "remaining_votes": 1451.5801453614304, "weight": 0.045123489075924846 } ], "share_sources": [ { "model": "v0", "weight": 0.03630604611298715, "source": "statewide raw" }, { "model": "v1", "weight": 0.14599140026529184, "source": "county live" }, { "model": "v3", "weight": 0.15004242351696637, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "market", "weight": 0.0786646379365536, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "histgeo", "weight": 0.06573339512824654, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "latent", "weight": 0.08483492578364633, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "batchbias", "weight": 0.04883898267529022, "source": "county remaining" } ], "candidate_benchmarks": { "Abdul El-Sayed": { "opponent": "Haley Stevens", "expected_remaining_share_points": 40.046781280512405, "expected_final_county_share_points": 38.33363426869964, "current_county_share_points": 31.1046511627907, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 38.85842720902756, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 38.85842720902756, "required_final_county_share_points": 37.37294689404636, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 38.85842720902756, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": -1550.4824880720075, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": false }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 38.85842720902756, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 38.85842720902756, "required_final_county_share_points": 37.37294689404636, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 38.85842720902756, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 39.48897862890483, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 39.48897862890483, "required_final_county_share_points": 37.88269630517001, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.024044322225107804, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999973, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 40.12257246595796, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 40.12257246595796, "required_final_county_share_points": 38.39490526251764, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.003259695682198218, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.9999999999999996, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": 1.188354071484845, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "ABOVE", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.00118239390297269, "criticality_score": 0.0009949845179520378, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -1832.6244880560598, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -211.47070493621584, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 635.9351036807549, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Haley Stevens": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 55.40365979279625, "expected_final_county_share_points": 56.9859567671851, "current_county_share_points": 63.662790697674424, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 56.592013864281085, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 56.592013864281085, "required_final_county_share_points": 57.94664414183838, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 56.592013864281085, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1645.9329291453162, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 56.592013864281085, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 56.592013864281085, "required_final_county_share_points": 57.94664414183838, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 56.592013864281085, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 57.21953851968533, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 57.21953851968533, "required_final_county_share_points": 58.45394666067205, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.07865391656842785, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.999999999999999, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 57.84405196216951, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 57.84405196216951, "required_final_county_share_points": 58.95881485937829, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.10597932088248406, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -1.188354071484838, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.00118239390297269, "criticality_score": 0.0009949845179520436, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1928.0749291293687, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 3549.228712249212, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 4396.634520866183, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Mallory McMorrow": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 4.549558926691354, "expected_final_county_share_points": 4.680408964115266, "current_county_share_points": 5.232558139534884, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 31.98111180354053, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 31.98111180354053, "required_final_county_share_points": 26.85658284047061, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 31.98111180354053, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 38299.825514454504, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 31.98111180354053, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 31.98111180354053, "required_final_county_share_points": 26.85658284047061, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 31.98111180354053, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 32.461731370323626, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 32.461731370323626, "required_final_county_share_points": 27.245124573022533, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.159018308558073, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999906, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 32.93791657182699, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 32.93791657182699, "required_final_county_share_points": 27.630081482800605, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.213613509684069, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.999999999999993, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -27.431552876849175, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "WELL BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.00118239390297269, "criticality_score": 4.31034257623297e-05, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1877.2208282632637, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 3498.374611383107, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 4345.780420000078, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } } } }, { "cid": "26057", "county": "26057", "fips": null, "reporting": 0.0, "current_votes": 0, "current_candidate_votes": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 0, "Haley Stevens": 0, "Mallory McMorrow": 0 }, "current_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": null, "Haley Stevens": null, "Mallory McMorrow": null }, "estimated_remaining_votes": 1397.8102766628867, "estimated_final_votes": 1397.8102766628867, "turnout_disagreement_votes": 0.0, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 45.71366837579237, "Haley Stevens": 49.51054752463013, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.775784099577507 }, "remaining_sources": [ { "model": "market", "remaining_votes": 1397.8102766628867, "weight": 0.1780093144963334 } ], "share_sources": [ { "model": "v0", "weight": 0.03630604611298715, "source": "statewide raw" }, { "model": "v3", "weight": 0.06301781787712588, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "market", "weight": 0.18729675699179427, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "histgeo", "weight": 0.02760802595386354, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "latent", "weight": 0.03563066882913146, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "batchbias", "weight": 0.020512372723621893, "source": "statewide fallback" } ], "candidate_benchmarks": { "Abdul El-Sayed": { "opponent": "Haley Stevens", "expected_remaining_share_points": 45.71366837579237, "expected_final_county_share_points": 45.71366837579237, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 44.494792079836195, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 44.494792079836195, "required_final_county_share_points": 44.494792079836195, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 44.494792079836195, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": -1605.9988326370715, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": false }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 44.494792079836195, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 44.494792079836195, "required_final_county_share_points": 44.494792079836195, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 44.494792079836195, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 45.142479302794236, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 45.142479302794236, "required_final_county_share_points": 45.142479302794236, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.024044322225107804, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999973, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 45.79115045998886, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 45.79115045998886, "required_final_county_share_points": 45.79115045998886, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.003259695682198218, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.9999999999999996, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": 1.2188762959561785, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "ABOVE", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.0011385953120950434, "criticality_score": 0.0009341352488948383, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -1898.9940496469037, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -215.47899510572776, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 664.5241550993294, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Haley Stevens": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 49.51054752463013, "expected_final_county_share_points": 49.51054752463012, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 50.729423820586305, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 50.729423820586305, "required_final_county_share_points": 50.729423820586305, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 50.729423820586305, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1701.2230485374935, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 50.729423820586305, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 50.729423820586305, "required_final_county_share_points": 50.729423820586305, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 50.729423820586305, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 51.37612293749878, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 51.37612293749878, "required_final_county_share_points": 51.37612293749878, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.07865391656842785, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.999999999999999, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 52.02182979746676, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 52.02182979746676, "required_final_county_share_points": 52.02182979746676, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.10597932088248406, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -1.2188762959561785, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.0011385953120950434, "criticality_score": 0.0009341352488948383, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1994.2182655473262, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 3677.733320088502, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 4557.736470293559, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Mallory McMorrow": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 4.775784099577507, "expected_final_county_share_points": 4.775784099577507, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 35.33330336541867, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 35.33330336541867, "required_final_county_share_points": 35.33330336541867, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 35.33330336541867, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 39773.16436033238, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 35.33330336541867, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 35.33330336541867, "required_final_county_share_points": 35.33330336541867, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 35.33330336541867, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 35.897309697827865, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 35.897309697827865, "required_final_county_share_points": 35.897309697827865, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.159018308558073, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999906, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 36.45713713466048, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 36.45713713466048, "required_final_county_share_points": 36.45713713466048, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.213613509684069, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.999999999999993, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -30.557519265841165, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "WELL BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.0011385953120950434, "criticality_score": 3.726072467433004e-05, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1949.4835021222736, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 3632.998556663449, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 4513.0017068685065, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } } } }, { "cid": "fips:26057", "county": "Gratiot", "fips": "26057", "reporting": 52.459999999999994, "current_votes": 1835, "current_candidate_votes": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 746, "Haley Stevens": 973, "Mallory McMorrow": 116 }, "current_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 40.653950953678475, "Haley Stevens": 53.02452316076294, "Mallory McMorrow": 6.321525885558583 }, "estimated_remaining_votes": 1397.8102766628867, "estimated_final_votes": 3232.8102766628867, "turnout_disagreement_votes": 0.0, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 43.66830054096196, "Haley Stevens": 50.879047295444735, "Mallory McMorrow": 5.452652163593299 }, "remaining_sources": [ { "model": "v3", "remaining_votes": 1397.8102766628867, "weight": 0.1342208488636769 }, { "model": "histgeo", "remaining_votes": 1397.8102766628867, "weight": 0.05994207394479305 }, { "model": "latent", "remaining_votes": 1397.8102766628867, "weight": 0.07672787409296966 }, { "model": "batchbias", "remaining_votes": 1397.8102766628867, "weight": 0.045123489075924846 } ], "share_sources": [ { "model": "v0", "weight": 0.03630604611298715, "source": "statewide raw" }, { "model": "v1", "weight": 0.14599140026529184, "source": "county live" }, { "model": "v3", "weight": 0.15004242351696637, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "market", "weight": 0.0786646379365536, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "histgeo", "weight": 0.06573339512824654, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "latent", "weight": 0.08483492578364633, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "batchbias", "weight": 0.04883898267529022, "source": "county remaining" } ], "candidate_benchmarks": { "Abdul El-Sayed": { "opponent": "Haley Stevens", "expected_remaining_share_points": 43.66830054096196, "expected_final_county_share_points": 41.95730267245265, "current_county_share_points": 40.653950953678475, "recent_batch_votes": 78, "recent_batch_share_points": 28.205128205128204, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 42.46433495773232, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 42.46433495773232, "required_final_county_share_points": 41.43672914014997, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 42.46433495773232, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": -1608.0442004719027, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": false }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 42.46433495773232, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 42.46433495773232, "required_final_county_share_points": 41.43672914014997, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 42.46433495773232, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 43.10381927631105, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 43.10381927631105, "required_final_county_share_points": 41.71323090665537, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.024044322225107804, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999973, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 43.7449107363457, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 43.7449107363457, "required_final_county_share_points": 41.99042757284584, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.003259695682198218, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.9999999999999996, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": 1.203965583229639, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -14.259206752604115, "status": "ABOVE", "recent_status": "WELL BELOW", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.0011385953120950434, "criticality_score": 0.000945704202806828, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -1901.039417481734, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -217.52436294055818, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 662.4787872644989, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Haley Stevens": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 50.879047295444735, "expected_final_county_share_points": 52.09685715000969, "current_county_share_points": 53.02452316076294, "recent_batch_votes": 78, "recent_batch_share_points": 70.51282051282051, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 52.08301287867438, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 52.08301287867438, "required_final_county_share_points": 52.617430682312374, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 52.08301287867438, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1702.5915483083093, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 52.08301287867438, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 52.08301287867438, "required_final_county_share_points": 52.617430682312374, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 52.08301287867438, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 52.720889773332345, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 52.720889773332345, "required_final_county_share_points": 52.89323742699988, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.07865391656842785, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.999999999999999, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 53.3571589836196, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 53.3571589836196, "required_final_county_share_points": 53.168349037255524, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.10597932088248406, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -1.203965583229646, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": 18.42980763414613, "status": "BELOW", "recent_status": "WELL ABOVE", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.0011385953120950434, "criticality_score": 0.0009457042028068225, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1995.5867653181408, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 3679.1018198593165, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 4559.104970064374, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Mallory McMorrow": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 5.452652163593299, "expected_final_county_share_points": 5.945840177537663, "current_county_share_points": 6.321525885558583, "recent_batch_votes": 78, "recent_batch_share_points": 1.282051282051282, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 36.14784228974252, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 36.14784228974252, "required_final_county_share_points": 19.217900252384652, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 36.14784228974252, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 39773.84122839639, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 36.14784228974252, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 36.14784228974252, "required_final_county_share_points": 19.217900252384652, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 36.14784228974252, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 36.65452821074907, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 36.65452821074907, "required_final_county_share_points": 19.43698232860054, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.159018308558073, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999906, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 37.155544642236556, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 37.155544642236556, "required_final_county_share_points": 19.65361301731299, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.213613509684069, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.999999999999993, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -30.69519012614922, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -34.865791007691236, "status": "WELL BELOW", "recent_status": "WELL BELOW", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.0011385953120950434, "criticality_score": 3.709360676430782e-05, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1950.1603701862894, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 3633.6754247274653, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 4513.678574932523, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } } } }, { "cid": "fips:26023", "county": "Branch", "fips": "26023", "reporting": 45.38, "current_votes": 1514, "current_candidate_votes": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 567, "Haley Stevens": 868, "Mallory McMorrow": 79 }, "current_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 37.45046235138705, "Haley Stevens": 57.33157199471598, "Mallory McMorrow": 5.217965653896962 }, "estimated_remaining_votes": 1328.9638581037907, "estimated_final_votes": 2842.9638581037907, "turnout_disagreement_votes": 0.0, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 41.89518609345106, "Haley Stevens": 53.41155199201151, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.6932619145374295 }, "remaining_sources": [ { "model": "v3", "remaining_votes": 1328.9638581037907, "weight": 0.1342208488636769 }, { "model": "histgeo", "remaining_votes": 1328.9638581037907, "weight": 0.05994207394479305 }, { "model": "latent", "remaining_votes": 1328.9638581037907, "weight": 0.07672787409296966 }, { "model": "batchbias", "remaining_votes": 1328.9638581037907, "weight": 0.045123489075924846 } ], "share_sources": [ { "model": "v0", "weight": 0.03630604611298715, "source": "statewide raw" }, { "model": "v1", "weight": 0.14599140026529184, "source": "county live" }, { "model": "v3", "weight": 0.15004242351696637, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "market", "weight": 0.0786646379365536, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "histgeo", "weight": 0.06573339512824654, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "latent", "weight": 0.08483492578364633, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "batchbias", "weight": 0.04883898267529022, "source": "county remaining" } ], "candidate_benchmarks": { "Abdul El-Sayed": { "opponent": "Haley Stevens", "expected_remaining_share_points": 41.89518609345106, "expected_final_county_share_points": 39.52818036233591, "current_county_share_points": 37.45046235138705, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 40.69364585753238, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 40.69364585753238, "required_final_county_share_points": 38.966511756158674, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 40.69364585753238, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": -1695.3835923547356, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": false }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 40.69364585753238, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 40.69364585753238, "required_final_county_share_points": 38.966511756158674, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 40.69364585753238, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 41.331500515700704, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 41.331500515700704, "required_final_county_share_points": 39.264681493706526, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.024044322225107804, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999973, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 41.97173481245679, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 41.97173481245679, "required_final_county_share_points": 39.56396361038979, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.003259695682198218, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.9999999999999996, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": 1.201540235918678, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "ABOVE", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.0010825160209819013, "criticality_score": 0.0009009403003089841, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -2003.557304417737, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -232.8284544157449, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 692.7628920693714, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Haley Stevens": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 53.41155199201151, "expected_final_county_share_points": 55.499130512286136, "current_county_share_points": 57.33157199471598, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 54.61309222793018, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 54.61309222793018, "required_final_county_share_points": 56.06079911846338, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 54.61309222793018, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1790.6903304401983, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 54.61309222793018, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 54.61309222793018, "required_final_county_share_points": 56.06079911846338, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 54.61309222793018, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 55.248574199199396, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 55.248574199199396, "required_final_county_share_points": 56.35785972649258, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.07865391656842785, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.999999999999999, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 55.88169041937995, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 55.88169041937995, "required_final_county_share_points": 56.65381444719747, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.10597932088248406, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -1.2015402359186709, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.0010825160209819013, "criticality_score": 0.0009009403003089894, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 2098.8640425031995, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 3869.5928925051912, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 4795.184238990308, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Mallory McMorrow": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 4.6932619145374295, "expected_final_county_share_points": 4.972689125377945, "current_county_share_points": 5.217965653896962, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 33.27674958666581, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 33.27674958666581, "required_final_county_share_points": 18.33424556814967, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 33.27674958666581, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 41833.266626954646, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 33.27674958666581, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 33.27674958666581, "required_final_county_share_points": 18.33424556814967, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 33.27674958666581, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 33.78196194462779, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 33.78196194462779, "required_final_county_share_points": 18.570410710553798, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.159018308558073, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999906, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 34.28266415700371, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 34.28266415700371, "required_final_county_share_points": 18.804467553036496, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.213613509684069, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.999999999999993, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -28.583487672128378, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "WELL BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.0010825160209819013, "criticality_score": 3.7872076123077784e-05, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 2050.1457524257253, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 3820.874602427717, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 4746.4659489128335, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } } } }, { "cid": "26023", "county": "26023", "fips": null, "reporting": 0.0, "current_votes": 0, "current_candidate_votes": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 0, "Haley Stevens": 0, "Mallory McMorrow": 0 }, "current_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": null, "Haley Stevens": null, "Mallory McMorrow": null }, "estimated_remaining_votes": 1328.9638581037907, "estimated_final_votes": 1328.9638581037907, "turnout_disagreement_votes": 0.0, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 45.96531612487444, "Haley Stevens": 49.75912812341987, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.2755557517057 }, "remaining_sources": [ { "model": "market", "remaining_votes": 1328.9638581037907, "weight": 0.1780093144963334 } ], "share_sources": [ { "model": "v0", "weight": 0.03630604611298715, "source": "statewide raw" }, { "model": "v3", "weight": 0.06301781787712588, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "market", "weight": 0.18729675699179427, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "histgeo", "weight": 0.02760802595386354, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "latent", "weight": 0.03563066882913146, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "batchbias", "weight": 0.020512372723621893, "source": "statewide fallback" } ], "candidate_benchmarks": { "Abdul El-Sayed": { "opponent": "Haley Stevens", "expected_remaining_share_points": 45.96531612487444, "expected_final_county_share_points": 45.96531612487444, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 44.740005862807976, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 44.740005862807976, "required_final_county_share_points": 44.74000586280797, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 44.740005862807976, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": -1691.3134623233084, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": false }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 44.740005862807976, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 44.740005862807976, "required_final_county_share_points": 44.74000586280797, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 44.740005862807976, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 45.39111385141064, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 45.39111385141064, "required_final_county_share_points": 45.39111385141064, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.024044322225107804, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999973, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 46.04320669570189, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 46.04320669570189, "required_final_county_share_points": 46.04320669570189, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.003259695682198218, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.9999999999999996, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": 1.2253102620664649, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "ABOVE", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.0010825160209819013, "criticality_score": 0.0008834627885644706, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -1999.4871743863137, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -228.7583243843215, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 696.8330221007948, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Haley Stevens": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 49.75912812341987, "expected_final_county_share_points": 49.75912812341987, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 50.98443838548633, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 50.98443838548633, "required_final_county_share_points": 50.98443838548633, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 50.98443838548633, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1787.037906571603, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 50.98443838548633, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 50.98443838548633, "required_final_county_share_points": 50.98443838548633, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 50.98443838548633, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 51.6345573051189, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 51.6345573051189, "required_final_county_share_points": 51.6345573051189, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.07865391656842785, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.999999999999999, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 52.283682963440306, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 52.283682963440306, "required_final_county_share_points": 52.283682963440306, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.10597932088248406, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -1.2253102620664578, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.0010825160209819013, "criticality_score": 0.0008834627885644757, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 2095.211618634608, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 3865.9404686365997, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 4791.531815121716, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Mallory McMorrow": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 4.2755557517057, "expected_final_county_share_points": 4.2755557517057, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 33.905955789869566, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 33.905955789869566, "required_final_county_share_points": 33.905955789869566, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 33.905955789869566, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 41832.84892079181, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 33.905955789869566, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 33.905955789869566, "required_final_county_share_points": 33.905955789869566, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 33.905955789869566, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 34.49293643106823, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 34.49293643106823, "required_final_county_share_points": 34.49293643106823, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.159018308558073, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999906, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 35.07711214446507, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 35.07711214446507, "required_final_county_share_points": 35.07711214446507, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.213613509684069, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.999999999999993, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -29.630400038163867, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "WELL BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.0010825160209819013, "criticality_score": 3.653396577797208e-05, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 2049.7280462628937, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 3820.4568962648855, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 4746.048242750002, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } } } }, { "cid": "26031", "county": "26031", "fips": null, "reporting": 0.0, "current_votes": 0, "current_candidate_votes": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 0, "Haley Stevens": 0, "Mallory McMorrow": 0 }, "current_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": null, "Haley Stevens": null, "Mallory McMorrow": null }, "estimated_remaining_votes": 1277.7034008361702, "estimated_final_votes": 1277.7034008361702, "turnout_disagreement_votes": 0.0, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 46.25878790280384, "Haley Stevens": 49.62975324012126, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.1114588570749016 }, "remaining_sources": [ { "model": "market", "remaining_votes": 1277.7034008361702, "weight": 0.1780093144963334 } ], "share_sources": [ { "model": "v0", "weight": 0.03630604611298715, "source": "statewide raw" }, { "model": "v3", "weight": 0.06301781787712588, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "market", "weight": 0.18729675699179427, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "histgeo", "weight": 0.02760802595386354, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "latent", "weight": 0.03563066882913146, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "batchbias", "weight": 0.020512372723621893, "source": "statewide fallback" } ], "candidate_benchmarks": { "Abdul El-Sayed": { "opponent": "Haley Stevens", "expected_remaining_share_points": 46.25878790280384, "expected_final_county_share_points": 46.25878790280384, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 45.03082448501172, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 45.03082448501172, "required_final_county_share_points": 45.03082448501172, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 45.03082448501172, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": -1760.718251132546, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": false }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 45.03082448501172, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 45.03082448501172, "required_final_county_share_points": 45.03082448501172, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 45.03082448501172, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 45.68337742194211, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 45.68337742194211, "required_final_county_share_points": 45.68337742194211, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.024044322225107804, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999973, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 46.33683759790625, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 46.33683759790625, "required_final_county_share_points": 46.33683759790625, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.003259695682198218, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.9999999999999996, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": 1.2279634177921182, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "ABOVE", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.0010407614872549775, "criticality_score": 0.0008475508896887741, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -2081.255650564521, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -239.48654936755813, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 723.2387952212882, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Haley Stevens": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 49.62975324012126, "expected_final_county_share_points": 49.62975324012126, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 50.85771665791338, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 50.85771665791338, "required_final_county_share_points": 50.85771665791338, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 50.85771665791338, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1856.6067922754708, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 50.85771665791338, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 50.85771665791338, "required_final_county_share_points": 50.85771665791338, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 50.85771665791338, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 51.50935778564551, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 51.50935778564551, "required_final_county_share_points": 51.50935778564551, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.07865391656842785, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.999999999999999, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 52.16008255337068, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 52.16008255337068, "required_final_county_share_points": 52.16008255337068, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.10597932088248406, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -1.2279634177921182, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.0010407614872549775, "criticality_score": 0.0008475508896887741, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 2177.144191707446, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 4018.9132929044085, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 4981.638637493255, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Mallory McMorrow": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 4.1114588570749016, "expected_final_county_share_points": 4.1114588570749016, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 33.486436232129755, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 33.486436232129755, "required_final_county_share_points": 33.486436232129755, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 33.486436232129755, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 43510.81434608595, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 33.486436232129755, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 33.486436232129755, "required_final_county_share_points": 33.486436232129755, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 33.486436232129755, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 34.08441547908403, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 34.08441547908403, "required_final_county_share_points": 34.08441547908403, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.159018308558073, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999906, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 34.68017409211269, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 34.68017409211269, "required_final_county_share_points": 34.68017409211269, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.213613509684069, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.999999999999993, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -29.374977375054854, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "WELL BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.0010407614872549775, "criticality_score": 3.5430205578261626e-05, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 2131.6258973244, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 3973.394998521362, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 4936.1203431102085, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } } } }, { "cid": "fips:26031", "county": "Cheboygan", "fips": "26031", "reporting": 57.26, "current_votes": 1621, "current_candidate_votes": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 682, "Haley Stevens": 867, "Mallory McMorrow": 72 }, "current_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 42.07279457125232, "Haley Stevens": 53.48550277606415, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.441702652683529 }, "estimated_remaining_votes": 1277.7034008361702, "estimated_final_votes": 2898.70340083617, "turnout_disagreement_votes": 0.0, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 44.43260361080989, "Haley Stevens": 51.331470258170484, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.235926131019626 }, "remaining_sources": [ { "model": "v3", "remaining_votes": 1277.7034008361702, "weight": 0.1342208488636769 }, { "model": "histgeo", "remaining_votes": 1277.7034008361702, "weight": 0.05994207394479305 }, { "model": "latent", "remaining_votes": 1277.7034008361702, "weight": 0.07672787409296966 }, { "model": "batchbias", "remaining_votes": 1277.7034008361702, "weight": 0.045123489075924846 } ], "share_sources": [ { "model": "v0", "weight": 0.03630604611298715, "source": "statewide raw" }, { "model": "v1", "weight": 0.14599140026529184, "source": "county live" }, { "model": "v3", "weight": 0.15004242351696637, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "market", "weight": 0.0786646379365536, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "histgeo", "weight": 0.06573339512824654, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "latent", "weight": 0.08483492578364633, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "batchbias", "weight": 0.04883898267529022, "source": "county remaining" } ], "candidate_benchmarks": { "Abdul El-Sayed": { "opponent": "Haley Stevens", "expected_remaining_share_points": 44.43260361080989, "expected_final_county_share_points": 43.11296171436082, "current_county_share_points": 42.07279457125232, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 43.21224342521124, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 43.21224342521124, "required_final_county_share_points": 42.5750459141673, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 43.21224342521124, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": -1762.5444354245406, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": false }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 43.21224342521124, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 43.21224342521124, "required_final_county_share_points": 42.5750459141673, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 43.21224342521124, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 43.86046860938662, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 43.86046860938662, "required_final_county_share_points": 42.86077349915913, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.024044322225107804, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999973, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 44.51024807925615, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 44.51024807925615, "required_final_county_share_points": 43.147186189124696, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.003259695682198218, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.9999999999999996, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": 1.2203601855986506, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "ABOVE", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.0010407614872549775, "criticality_score": 0.0008528314013656793, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -2083.081834856515, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -241.31273365955207, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 721.4126109292943, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Haley Stevens": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 51.331470258170484, "expected_final_county_share_points": 52.53603872505759, "current_county_share_points": 53.48550277606415, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 52.551830443769134, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 52.551830443769134, "required_final_county_share_points": 53.0739545252511, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 52.551830443769134, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1858.308509293521, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 52.551830443769134, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 52.551830443769134, "required_final_county_share_points": 53.0739545252511, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 52.551830443769134, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 53.19850050667427, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 53.19850050667427, "required_final_county_share_points": 53.358996636960256, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.07865391656842785, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.999999999999999, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 53.843614636146434, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 53.843614636146434, "required_final_county_share_points": 53.643352917398005, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.10597932088248406, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -1.2203601855986506, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.0010407614872549775, "criticality_score": 0.0008528314013656793, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 2178.8459087254955, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 4020.615009922458, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 4983.340354511304, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Mallory McMorrow": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 4.235926131019626, "expected_final_county_share_points": 4.350999560581604, "current_county_share_points": 4.441702652683529, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 33.10641097976982, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 33.10641097976982, "required_final_county_share_points": 17.076660511059124, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 33.10641097976982, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 43510.93881335989, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 33.10641097976982, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 33.10641097976982, "required_final_county_share_points": 17.076660511059124, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 33.10641097976982, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 33.66991416855289, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 33.66991416855289, "required_final_county_share_points": 17.325043957424306, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.159018308558073, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999906, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 34.23040458039887, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 34.23040458039887, "required_final_county_share_points": 17.57209941854706, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.213613509684069, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.999999999999993, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -28.870484848750195, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "WELL BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.0010407614872549775, "criticality_score": 3.6049324862655785e-05, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 2131.7503645983447, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 3973.519465795307, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 4936.244810384153, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } } } }, { "cid": "26059", "county": "26059", "fips": null, "reporting": 0.0, "current_votes": 0, "current_candidate_votes": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 0, "Haley Stevens": 0, "Mallory McMorrow": 0 }, "current_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": null, "Haley Stevens": null, "Mallory McMorrow": null }, "estimated_remaining_votes": 1264.1567787725116, "estimated_final_votes": 1264.1567787725116, "turnout_disagreement_votes": 0.0, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 47.90680563223135, "Haley Stevens": 47.366648033244054, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.726546334524606 }, "remaining_sources": [ { "model": "market", "remaining_votes": 1264.1567787725116, "weight": 0.1780093144963334 } ], "share_sources": [ { "model": "v0", "weight": 0.03630604611298715, "source": "statewide raw" }, { "model": "v3", "weight": 0.06301781787712588, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "market", "weight": 0.18729675699179427, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "histgeo", "weight": 0.02760802595386354, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "latent", "weight": 0.03563066882913146, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "batchbias", "weight": 0.020512372723621893, "source": "statewide fallback" } ], "candidate_benchmarks": { "Abdul El-Sayed": { "opponent": "Haley Stevens", "expected_remaining_share_points": 47.90680563223135, "expected_final_county_share_points": 47.90680563223135, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 46.6839684484235, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 46.6839684484235, "required_final_county_share_points": 46.6839684484235, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 46.6839684484235, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": -1778.4336821751097, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": false }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 46.6839684484235, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 46.6839684484235, "required_final_county_share_points": 46.6839684484235, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 46.6839684484235, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 47.3341161918114, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 47.3341161918114, "required_final_county_share_points": 47.334116191811404, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.024044322225107804, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999973, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 47.98444296679915, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 47.98444296679915, "required_final_county_share_points": 47.98444296679915, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.003259695682198218, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.9999999999999996, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": 1.2228371838078473, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "ABOVE", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.0010297269995037297, "criticality_score": 0.0008420802156974134, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -2102.4059395932777, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -240.90056014239008, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 732.1412868085398, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Haley Stevens": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 47.366648033244054, "expected_final_county_share_points": 47.36664803324406, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.589485217051916, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.589485217051916, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.58948521705192, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 48.589485217051916, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1873.707135840585, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.589485217051916, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.589485217051916, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.58948521705192, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 48.589485217051916, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 49.23944755759535, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 49.23944755759535, "required_final_county_share_points": 49.23944755759535, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.07865391656842785, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.999999999999999, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 49.88921811990241, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 49.88921811990241, "required_final_county_share_points": 49.88921811990241, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.10597932088248406, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -1.2228371838078615, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.0010297269995037297, "criticality_score": 0.0008420802156974037, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 2197.679393258753, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 4059.18477270964, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 5032.226619660571, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Mallory McMorrow": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 4.726546334524606, "expected_final_county_share_points": 4.726546334524606, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 36.19378079591451, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 36.19378079591451, "required_final_county_share_points": 36.19378079591451, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 36.19378079591451, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 43977.64444039304, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 36.19378079591451, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 36.19378079591451, "required_final_county_share_points": 36.19378079591451, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 36.19378079591451, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 36.79530869719677, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 36.79530869719677, "required_final_county_share_points": 36.79530869719677, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.159018308558073, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999906, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 37.39314977634701, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 37.39314977634701, "required_final_county_share_points": 37.39314977634701, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.213613509684069, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.999999999999993, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -31.467234461389907, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "WELL BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.0010297269995037297, "criticality_score": 3.2723784505664076e-05, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 2155.0392915600337, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 4016.544671010921, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 4989.586517961851, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } } } }, { "cid": "fips:26059", "county": "Hillsdale", "fips": "26059", "reporting": 54.47, "current_votes": 1571, "current_candidate_votes": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 692, "Haley Stevens": 782, "Mallory McMorrow": 97 }, "current_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 44.04837683004455, "Haley Stevens": 49.77721196690006, "Mallory McMorrow": 6.174411203055379 }, "estimated_remaining_votes": 1264.1567787725116, "estimated_final_votes": 2835.1567787725116, "turnout_disagreement_votes": 0.0, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 45.82297625840502, "Haley Stevens": 48.800132940938745, "Mallory McMorrow": 5.376890800656231 }, "remaining_sources": [ { "model": "v3", "remaining_votes": 1264.1567787725116, "weight": 0.1342208488636769 }, { "model": "histgeo", "remaining_votes": 1264.1567787725116, "weight": 0.05994207394479305 }, { "model": "latent", "remaining_votes": 1264.1567787725116, "weight": 0.07672787409296966 }, { "model": "batchbias", "remaining_votes": 1264.1567787725116, "weight": 0.045123489075924846 } ], "share_sources": [ { "model": "v0", "weight": 0.03630604611298715, "source": "statewide raw" }, { "model": "v1", "weight": 0.14599140026529184, "source": "county live" }, { "model": "v3", "weight": 0.15004242351696637, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "market", "weight": 0.0786646379365536, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "histgeo", "weight": 0.06573339512824654, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "latent", "weight": 0.08483492578364633, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "batchbias", "weight": 0.04883898267529022, "source": "county remaining" } ], "candidate_benchmarks": { "Abdul El-Sayed": { "opponent": "Haley Stevens", "expected_remaining_share_points": 45.82297625840502, "expected_final_county_share_points": 44.83964591038761, "current_county_share_points": 44.04837683004455, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 44.61080501558737, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 44.61080501558737, "required_final_county_share_points": 44.29915569654326, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 44.61080501558737, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": -1780.5175115489337, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": false }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 44.61080501558737, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 44.61080501558737, "required_final_county_share_points": 44.29915569654326, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 44.61080501558737, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 45.25499439855413, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 45.25499439855413, "required_final_county_share_points": 44.58639073814236, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.024044322225107804, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999973, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 45.90001444094713, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 45.90001444094713, "required_final_county_share_points": 44.87399615916895, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.003259695682198218, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.9999999999999996, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": 1.2121712428176536, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "ABOVE", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.0010297269995037297, "criticality_score": 0.0008494897116270156, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -2104.489768967104, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -242.9843895162164, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 730.0574574347135, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Haley Stevens": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 48.800132940938745, "expected_final_county_share_points": 49.341546086510824, "current_county_share_points": 49.77721196690006, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 50.0123041837564, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 50.0123041837564, "required_final_county_share_points": 49.88203630035518, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 50.0123041837564, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1875.1406207482778, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 50.0123041837564, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 50.0123041837564, "required_final_county_share_points": 49.88203630035518, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 50.0123041837564, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 50.655658134447954, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 50.655658134447954, "required_final_county_share_points": 50.16889883438018, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.07865391656842785, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.999999999999999, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 51.2981718976128, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 51.2981718976128, "required_final_county_share_points": 50.45538674053086, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.10597932088248406, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -1.2121712428176536, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.0010297269995037297, "criticality_score": 0.0008494897116270156, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 2199.112878166448, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 4060.618257617335, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 5033.6601045682655, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Mallory McMorrow": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 5.376890800656231, "expected_final_county_share_points": 5.818808003101561, "current_county_share_points": 6.174411203055379, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 37.050208208433965, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 37.050208208433965, "required_final_county_share_points": 19.941497516092465, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 37.050208208433965, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 43978.29478485917, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 37.050208208433965, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 37.050208208433965, "required_final_county_share_points": 19.941497516092465, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 37.050208208433965, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 37.5939960552779, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 37.5939960552779, "required_final_county_share_points": 20.18396491611381, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.159018308558073, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999906, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 38.13239576317523, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 38.13239576317523, "required_final_county_share_points": 20.42402982029249, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.213613509684069, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.999999999999993, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -31.673317407777734, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "WELL BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.0010297269995037297, "criticality_score": 3.251086667829966e-05, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 2155.6896360261653, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 4017.1950154770525, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 4990.2368624279825, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } } } }, { "cid": "fips:26127", "county": "Oceana", "fips": "26127", "reporting": 51.29, "current_votes": 1350, "current_candidate_votes": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 530, "Haley Stevens": 772, "Mallory McMorrow": 48 }, "current_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 39.25925925925926, "Haley Stevens": 57.18518518518518, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.5555555555555554 }, "estimated_remaining_votes": 1240.3814241764385, "estimated_final_votes": 2590.3814241764385, "turnout_disagreement_votes": 0.0, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 42.78045962102668, "Haley Stevens": 53.571754131483985, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.647786247489357 }, "remaining_sources": [ { "model": "v3", "remaining_votes": 1240.3814241764385, "weight": 0.1342208488636769 }, { "model": "histgeo", "remaining_votes": 1240.3814241764385, "weight": 0.05994207394479305 }, { "model": "latent", "remaining_votes": 1240.3814241764385, "weight": 0.07672787409296966 }, { "model": "batchbias", "remaining_votes": 1240.3814241764385, "weight": 0.045123489075924846 } ], "share_sources": [ { "model": "v0", "weight": 0.03630604611298715, "source": "statewide raw" }, { "model": "v1", "weight": 0.14599140026529184, "source": "county live" }, { "model": "v3", "weight": 0.15004242351696637, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "market", "weight": 0.0786646379365536, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "histgeo", "weight": 0.06573339512824654, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "latent", "weight": 0.08483492578364633, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "batchbias", "weight": 0.04883898267529022, "source": "county remaining" } ], "candidate_benchmarks": { "Abdul El-Sayed": { "opponent": "Haley Stevens", "expected_remaining_share_points": 42.78045962102668, "expected_final_county_share_points": 40.94535516728882, "current_county_share_points": 39.25925925925926, "recent_batch_votes": 479, "recent_batch_share_points": 47.390396659707726, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 41.56292750719457, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 41.56292750719457, "required_final_county_share_points": 40.362350593815336, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 41.56292750719457, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": -1818.5669154747213, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": false }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 41.56292750719457, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 41.56292750719457, "required_final_county_share_points": 40.362350593815336, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 41.56292750719457, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 42.209340247099455, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 42.209340247099455, "required_final_county_share_points": 40.671879664494156, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.024044322225107804, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999973, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 42.8580085085387, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 42.8580085085387, "required_final_county_share_points": 40.98248877187604, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.003259695682198218, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.9999999999999996, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": 1.2175321138321067, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": 5.827469152513153, "status": "ABOVE", "recent_status": "WELL ABOVE", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.0010103606321658718, "criticality_score": 0.000829843106959885, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -2148.749000893601, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -251.56270135127636, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 740.1301947827196, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Haley Stevens": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 53.571754131483985, "expected_final_county_share_points": 55.4549254192983, "current_county_share_points": 57.18518518518518, "recent_batch_votes": 479, "recent_batch_share_points": 49.26931106471816, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 54.78928624531609, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 54.78928624531609, "required_final_county_share_points": 56.03792999277179, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 54.78928624531609, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1914.9191292272317, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 54.78928624531609, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 54.78928624531609, "required_final_county_share_points": 56.03792999277179, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 54.78928624531609, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 55.43344883002952, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 55.43344883002952, "required_final_county_share_points": 56.34638159637376, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.07865391656842785, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.999999999999999, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 56.07536662177534, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 56.07536662177534, "required_final_county_share_points": 56.65375830055277, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.10597932088248406, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -1.2175321138321067, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -5.519975180597932, "status": "BELOW", "recent_status": "WELL BELOW", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.0010103606321658718, "criticality_score": 0.000829843106959885, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 2245.1012146461117, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 4142.287514188436, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 5133.980410322433, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Mallory McMorrow": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 3.647786247489357, "expected_final_county_share_points": 3.599719413412897, "current_county_share_points": 3.5555555555555554, "recent_batch_votes": 479, "recent_batch_share_points": 3.3402922755741122, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 30.433648216457904, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 30.433648216457904, "required_final_county_share_points": 16.425894472719406, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 30.433648216457904, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 44819.42876675492, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 30.433648216457904, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 30.433648216457904, "required_final_county_share_points": 16.425894472719406, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 30.433648216457904, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 30.992480190119885, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 30.992480190119885, "required_final_county_share_points": 16.693486261672476, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.159018308558073, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999906, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 31.549788556167734, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 31.549788556167734, "required_final_county_share_points": 16.96034848448341, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.213613509684069, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.999999999999993, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -26.785861968968547, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -27.093355940883793, "status": "WELL BELOW", "recent_status": "WELL BELOW", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.0010103606321658718, "criticality_score": 3.771992229842653e-05, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 2195.177246762117, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 4092.3635463044416, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 5084.056442438438, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } } } }, { "cid": "26127", "county": "26127", "fips": null, "reporting": 0.0, "current_votes": 0, "current_candidate_votes": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 0, "Haley Stevens": 0, "Mallory McMorrow": 0 }, "current_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": null, "Haley Stevens": null, "Mallory McMorrow": null }, "estimated_remaining_votes": 1240.3814241764385, "estimated_final_votes": 1240.3814241764385, "turnout_disagreement_votes": 0.0, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 46.26976603544071, "Haley Stevens": 50.02884439597427, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.701389568585018 }, "remaining_sources": [ { "model": "market", "remaining_votes": 1240.3814241764385, "weight": 0.1780093144963334 } ], "share_sources": [ { "model": "v0", "weight": 0.03630604611298715, "source": "statewide raw" }, { "model": "v3", "weight": 0.06301781787712588, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "market", "weight": 0.18729675699179427, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "histgeo", "weight": 0.02760802595386354, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "latent", "weight": 0.03563066882913146, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "batchbias", "weight": 0.020512372723621893, "source": "statewide fallback" } ], "candidate_benchmarks": { "Abdul El-Sayed": { "opponent": "Haley Stevens", "expected_remaining_share_points": 46.26976603544071, "expected_final_county_share_points": 46.26976603544072, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 45.037029369992084, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 45.037029369992084, "required_final_county_share_points": 45.037029369992084, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 45.037029369992084, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": -1815.0776090603088, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": false }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 45.037029369992084, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 45.037029369992084, "required_final_county_share_points": 45.037029369992084, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 45.037029369992084, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 45.69208831568155, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 45.69208831568155, "required_final_county_share_points": 45.69208831568156, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.024044322225107804, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999973, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 46.348127412385274, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 46.348127412385274, "required_final_county_share_points": 46.34812741238527, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.003259695682198218, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.9999999999999996, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": 1.232736665448627, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "ABOVE", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.0010103606321658718, "criticality_score": 0.0008196078371678624, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -2145.259694479187, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -248.07339493686234, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 743.6195011971337, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Haley Stevens": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 50.02884439597427, "expected_final_county_share_points": 50.02884439597427, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 51.26158106142289, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 51.26158106142289, "required_final_county_share_points": 51.26158106142289, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 51.26158106142289, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1911.3762194917235, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 51.26158106142289, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 51.26158106142289, "required_final_county_share_points": 51.26158106142289, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 51.26158106142289, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 51.91565556904912, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 51.91565556904912, "required_final_county_share_points": 51.91565556904912, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.07865391656842785, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.999999999999999, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 52.568741372427276, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 52.568741372427276, "required_final_county_share_points": 52.568741372427276, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.10597932088248406, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -1.2327366654486198, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.0010103606321658718, "criticality_score": 0.000819607837167867, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 2241.558304910602, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 4138.744604452926, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 5130.437500586923, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Mallory McMorrow": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 3.701389568585018, "expected_final_county_share_points": 3.7013895685850184, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 32.0288806705017, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 32.0288806705017, "required_final_county_share_points": 32.0288806705017, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 32.0288806705017, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 44819.48237007602, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 32.0288806705017, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 32.0288806705017, "required_final_county_share_points": 32.0288806705017, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 32.0288806705017, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 32.64232199494372, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 32.64232199494372, "required_final_county_share_points": 32.64232199494372, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.159018308558073, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999906, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 33.255039969712776, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 33.255039969712776, "required_final_county_share_points": 33.255039969712776, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.213613509684069, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.999999999999993, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -28.32749110191668, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "WELL BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.0010103606321658718, "criticality_score": 3.566714145388997e-05, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 2195.2308500832128, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 4092.417149625537, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 5084.110045759534, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } } } }, { "cid": "26003", "county": "26003", "fips": null, "reporting": 0.0, "current_votes": 0, "current_candidate_votes": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 0, "Haley Stevens": 0, "Mallory McMorrow": 0 }, "current_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": null, "Haley Stevens": null, "Mallory McMorrow": null }, "estimated_remaining_votes": 1187.3829746305028, "estimated_final_votes": 1187.3829746305028, "turnout_disagreement_votes": 0.0, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 49.78107924606265, "Haley Stevens": 44.19033989539461, "Mallory McMorrow": 6.028580858542726 }, "remaining_sources": [ { "model": "market", "remaining_votes": 1187.3829746305028, "weight": 0.1780093144963334 } ], "share_sources": [ { "model": "v0", "weight": 0.03630604611298715, "source": "statewide raw" }, { "model": "v3", "weight": 0.06301781787712588, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "market", "weight": 0.18729675699179427, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "histgeo", "weight": 0.02760802595386354, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "latent", "weight": 0.03563066882913146, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "batchbias", "weight": 0.020512372723621893, "source": "statewide fallback" } ], "candidate_benchmarks": { "Abdul El-Sayed": { "opponent": "Haley Stevens", "expected_remaining_share_points": 49.78107924606265, "expected_final_county_share_points": 49.78107924606265, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.57752122295603, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.57752122295603, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.57752122295603, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 48.57752122295603, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": -1894.6469253131233, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": false }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.57752122295603, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.57752122295603, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.57752122295603, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 48.57752122295603, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 49.21783313064474, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 49.21783313064474, "required_final_county_share_points": 49.21783313064474, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.024044322225107804, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999973, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 49.85738028071766, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 49.85738028071766, "required_final_county_share_points": 49.85738028071766, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.003259695682198218, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.9999999999999996, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": 1.2035580231066234, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "ABOVE", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.0009671904056989639, "criticality_score": 0.0008036092877370818, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -2239.566579796853, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -257.69999215554924, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 778.2567910677624, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Haley Stevens": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 44.19033989539461, "expected_final_county_share_points": 44.19033989539461, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 45.39389791850123, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 45.39389791850123, "required_final_county_share_points": 45.39389791850123, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 45.39389791850123, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1988.6183444545807, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 45.39389791850123, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 45.39389791850123, "required_final_county_share_points": 45.39389791850123, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 45.39389791850123, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 46.034969594667984, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 46.034969594667984, "required_final_county_share_points": 46.034969594667984, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.07865391656842785, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.999999999999999, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 46.67679601191516, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 46.67679601191516, "required_final_county_share_points": 46.67679601191515, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.10597932088248406, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -1.2035580231066234, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.0009671904056989639, "criticality_score": 0.0008036092877370818, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 2333.5379989383105, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 4315.404586579614, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 5351.361369802927, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Mallory McMorrow": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 6.028580858542726, "expected_final_county_share_points": 6.028580858542726, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 40.73569294218947, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 40.73569294218947, "required_final_county_share_points": 40.73569294218947, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 40.73569294218947, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 46822.14724339839, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 40.73569294218947, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 40.73569294218947, "required_final_county_share_points": 40.73569294218947, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 40.73569294218947, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 41.31982430328867, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 41.31982430328867, "required_final_county_share_points": 41.31982430328867, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.159018308558073, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999906, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 41.89778507077519, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 41.89778507077519, "required_final_county_share_points": 41.89778507077519, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.213613509684069, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.999999999999993, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -34.70711208364675, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "WELL BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.0009671904056989639, "criticality_score": 2.7867210713699323e-05, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 2295.3762399014586, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 4277.242827542763, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 5313.199610766075, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } } } }, { "cid": "fips:26003", "county": "Alger", "fips": "26003", "reporting": 20.65, "current_votes": 291, "current_candidate_votes": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 152, "Haley Stevens": 107, "Mallory McMorrow": 32 }, "current_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 52.23367697594502, "Haley Stevens": 36.769759450171826, "Mallory McMorrow": 10.996563573883162 }, "estimated_remaining_votes": 1187.3829746305028, "estimated_final_votes": 1478.3829746305028, "turnout_disagreement_votes": 0.0, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 50.733700729169016, "Haley Stevens": 41.848202633581764, "Mallory McMorrow": 7.418096637249221 }, "remaining_sources": [ { "model": "v3", "remaining_votes": 1187.3829746305028, "weight": 0.1342208488636769 }, { "model": "histgeo", "remaining_votes": 1187.3829746305028, "weight": 0.05994207394479305 }, { "model": "latent", "remaining_votes": 1187.3829746305028, "weight": 0.07672787409296966 }, { "model": "batchbias", "remaining_votes": 1187.3829746305028, "weight": 0.045123489075924846 } ], "share_sources": [ { "model": "v0", "weight": 0.03630604611298715, "source": "statewide raw" }, { "model": "v1", "weight": 0.14599140026529184, "source": "county live" }, { "model": "v3", "weight": 0.15004242351696637, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "market", "weight": 0.0786646379365536, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "histgeo", "weight": 0.06573339512824654, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "latent", "weight": 0.08483492578364633, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "batchbias", "weight": 0.04883898267529022, "source": "county remaining" } ], "candidate_benchmarks": { "Abdul El-Sayed": { "opponent": "Haley Stevens", "expected_remaining_share_points": 50.733700729169016, "expected_final_county_share_points": 51.02895107721967, "current_county_share_points": 52.23367697594502, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 49.553581520396875, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 49.553581520396875, "required_final_county_share_points": 50.0811226183045, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 49.553581520396875, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": -1893.6943038300183, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": false }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 49.553581520396875, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 49.553581520396875, "required_final_county_share_points": 50.0811226183045, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 49.553581520396875, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 50.18169926774429, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 50.18169926774429, "required_final_county_share_points": 50.58560375212572, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.024044322225107804, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999973, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 50.808441227926124, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 50.808441227926124, "required_final_county_share_points": 51.08897990416268, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.003259695682198218, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.9999999999999996, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": 1.1801192087721404, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "ABOVE", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.0009671904056989639, "criticality_score": 0.000819570089622794, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -2238.613958313747, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -256.74737067244286, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 779.2094125508688, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Haley Stevens": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 41.848202633581764, "expected_final_county_share_points": 40.84857872574986, "current_county_share_points": 36.769759450171826, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 43.028321842353904, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 43.028321842353904, "required_final_county_share_points": 41.796407184665036, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 43.028321842353904, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1986.2762071927687, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 43.028321842353904, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 43.028321842353904, "required_final_county_share_points": 41.796407184665036, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 43.028321842353904, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 43.65781366202224, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 43.65781366202224, "required_final_county_share_points": 42.301991922970196, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.07865391656842785, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.999999999999999, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 44.28867779320415, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 44.28867779320415, "required_final_county_share_points": 42.808678851543405, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.10597932088248406, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -1.1801192087721404, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.0009671904056989639, "criticality_score": 0.000819570089622794, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 2331.1958616764978, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 4313.062449317801, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 5349.0192325411135, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Mallory McMorrow": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 7.418096637249221, "expected_final_county_share_points": 8.122470197030468, "current_county_share_points": 10.996563573883162, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 44.51016120478676, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 44.51016120478676, "required_final_county_share_points": 37.91345583280397, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 44.51016120478676, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 46823.5367591771, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 44.51016120478676, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 44.51016120478676, "required_final_county_share_points": 37.91345583280397, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 44.51016120478676, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 45.06346257864349, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 45.06346257864349, "required_final_county_share_points": 38.35784719987943, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.159018308558073, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999906, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 45.608873470073505, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 45.608873470073505, "required_final_county_share_points": 38.79590122091137, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.213613509684069, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.999999999999993, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -37.09206456753754, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "WELL BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.0009671904056989639, "criticality_score": 2.6075399603003912e-05, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 2296.765755680165, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 4278.632343321469, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 5314.589126544782, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } } } }, { "cid": "26067", "county": "26067", "fips": null, "reporting": 0.0, "current_votes": 0, "current_candidate_votes": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 0, "Haley Stevens": 0, "Mallory McMorrow": 0 }, "current_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": null, "Haley Stevens": null, "Mallory McMorrow": null }, "estimated_remaining_votes": 1155.4377744995945, "estimated_final_votes": 1155.4377744995945, "turnout_disagreement_votes": 0.0, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 49.310104438730704, "Haley Stevens": 46.81016573932359, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.8797298219457037 }, "remaining_sources": [ { "model": "market", "remaining_votes": 1155.4377744995945, "weight": 0.1780093144963334 } ], "share_sources": [ { "model": "v0", "weight": 0.03630604611298715, "source": "statewide raw" }, { "model": "v3", "weight": 0.06301781787712588, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "market", "weight": 0.18729675699179427, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "histgeo", "weight": 0.02760802595386354, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "latent", "weight": 0.03563066882913146, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "batchbias", "weight": 0.020512372723621893, "source": "statewide fallback" } ], "candidate_benchmarks": { "Abdul El-Sayed": { "opponent": "Haley Stevens", "expected_remaining_share_points": 49.310104438730704, "expected_final_county_share_points": 49.310104438730704, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.076549179833556, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.076549179833556, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.076549179833556, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 48.076549179833556, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": -1948.8768676015827, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": false }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.076549179833556, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.076549179833556, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.076549179833556, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 48.076549179833556, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.73255582712759, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.73255582712759, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.73255582712759, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.024044322225107804, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999973, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 49.38837877284581, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 49.38837877284581, "required_final_county_share_points": 49.38837877284581, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.003259695682198218, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.9999999999999996, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": 1.2335552588971481, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "ABOVE", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.0009411692383629892, "criticality_score": 0.0007629729041927439, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -2303.3327581637413, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -266.6721122250261, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 797.9264961985851, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Haley Stevens": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 46.81016573932359, "expected_final_county_share_points": 46.81016573932358, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.043720998220735, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.043720998220735, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.043720998220735, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 48.043720998220735, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 2044.997137779637, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.043720998220735, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.043720998220735, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.043720998220735, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 48.043720998220735, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.69990491562012, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.69990491562012, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.69990491562012, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.07865391656842785, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.999999999999999, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 49.35625965308465, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 49.35625965308465, "required_final_county_share_points": 49.35625965308465, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.10597932088248406, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -1.2335552588971481, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.0009411692383629892, "criticality_score": 0.0007629729041927439, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 2399.4530283417957, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 4436.11367428051, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 5500.712282704122, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Mallory McMorrow": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 3.8797298219457037, "expected_final_county_share_points": 3.8797298219457037, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 33.888423759904335, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 33.888423759904335, "required_final_county_share_points": 33.888423759904335, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 33.888423759904335, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 48114.356524866926, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 33.888423759904335, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 33.888423759904335, "required_final_county_share_points": 33.888423759904335, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 33.888423759904335, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 34.54452907635709, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 34.54452907635709, "required_final_county_share_points": 34.54452907635709, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.159018308558073, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999906, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 35.200128120057784, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 35.200128120057784, "required_final_county_share_points": 35.200128120057784, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.213613509684069, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.999999999999993, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -30.008693937958633, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "WELL BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.0009411692383629892, "criticality_score": 3.136321894944199e-05, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 2356.522592424418, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 4393.183238363133, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 5457.781846786745, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } } } }, { "cid": "fips:26153", "county": "Schoolcraft", "fips": "26153", "reporting": 0.0, "current_votes": 0, "current_candidate_votes": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 0, "Haley Stevens": 0, "Mallory McMorrow": 0 }, "current_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": null, "Haley Stevens": null, "Mallory McMorrow": null }, "estimated_remaining_votes": 987.1481570043143, "estimated_final_votes": 987.1481570043143, "turnout_disagreement_votes": 1.1368683772161603e-13, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 49.054050055778966, "Haley Stevens": 47.06205793393476, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.8838920102862757 }, "remaining_sources": [ { "model": "v3", "remaining_votes": 987.1481570043142, "weight": 0.1342208488636769 }, { "model": "histgeo", "remaining_votes": 987.1481570043142, "weight": 0.05994207394479305 }, { "model": "latent", "remaining_votes": 987.1481570043142, "weight": 0.07672787409296966 }, { "model": "batchbias", "remaining_votes": 987.1481570043142, "weight": 0.045123489075924846 } ], "share_sources": [ { "model": "v0", "weight": 0.03630604611298715, "source": "statewide raw" }, { "model": "v3", "weight": 0.15004242351696637, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "market", "weight": 0.0786646379365536, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "histgeo", "weight": 0.06573339512824654, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "latent", "weight": 0.08483492578364633, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "batchbias", "weight": 0.04883898267529022, "source": "county remaining" } ], "candidate_benchmarks": { "Abdul El-Sayed": { "opponent": "Haley Stevens", "expected_remaining_share_points": 49.054050055778966, "expected_final_county_share_points": 49.05405005577896, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 47.820410841463485, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 47.820410841463485, "required_final_county_share_points": 47.820410841463485, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 47.820410841463485, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": -2289.7850508698307, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": false }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 47.820410841463485, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 47.820410841463485, "required_final_county_share_points": 47.820410841463485, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 47.820410841463485, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.47642045549751, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.47642045549751, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.47642045549751, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.024044322225107804, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999973, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 49.132341014357, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 49.132341014357, "required_final_county_share_points": 49.132341014357, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.003259695682198218, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.9999999999999996, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": 1.233639214315481, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "ABOVE", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.0008040878527461584, "criticality_score": 0.0006518014695182406, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -2704.6687969857876, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -320.7970068629488, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 925.2950190647931, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Haley Stevens": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 47.06205793393476, "expected_final_county_share_points": 47.06205793393476, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.29569714825025, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.29569714825025, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.29569714825025, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 48.29569714825025, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 2385.9011588595445, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.29569714825025, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.29569714825025, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.29569714825025, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 48.29569714825025, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.95178932831056, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.95178932831056, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.95178932831056, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.07865391656842785, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.999999999999999, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 49.60795757040527, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 49.60795757040527, "required_final_county_share_points": 49.60795757040527, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.10597932088248406, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -1.2336392143154882, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.0008040878527461584, "criticality_score": 0.0006518014695182369, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 2800.7849049755014, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 5184.65669509834, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 6430.748721026082, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Mallory McMorrow": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 3.8838920102862757, "expected_final_county_share_points": 3.883892010286276, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 33.8047145477324, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 33.8047145477324, "required_final_county_share_points": 33.8047145477324, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 33.8047145477324, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 56316.26399802734, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 33.8047145477324, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 33.8047145477324, "required_final_county_share_points": 33.8047145477324, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 33.8047145477324, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 34.45653296572884, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 34.45653296572884, "required_final_county_share_points": 34.45653296572884, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.159018308558073, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999906, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 35.10774767658412, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 35.10774767658412, "required_final_county_share_points": 35.10774767658412, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.213613509684069, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.999999999999993, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -29.920822537446128, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "WELL BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.0008040878527461584, "criticality_score": 2.6873855213700647e-05, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 2757.606739051853, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 5141.478529174691, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 6387.570555102434, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } } } }, { "cid": "26153", "county": "26153", "fips": null, "reporting": 0.0, "current_votes": 0, "current_candidate_votes": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 0, "Haley Stevens": 0, "Mallory McMorrow": 0 }, "current_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": null, "Haley Stevens": null, "Mallory McMorrow": null }, "estimated_remaining_votes": 987.1481570043142, "estimated_final_votes": 987.1481570043142, "turnout_disagreement_votes": 0.0, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 48.973903537573875, "Haley Stevens": 46.149745434179586, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.8763510282465425 }, "remaining_sources": [ { "model": "market", "remaining_votes": 987.1481570043142, "weight": 0.1780093144963334 } ], "share_sources": [ { "model": "v0", "weight": 0.03630604611298715, "source": "statewide raw" }, { "model": "v3", "weight": 0.06301781787712588, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "market", "weight": 0.18729675699179427, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "histgeo", "weight": 0.02760802595386354, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "latent", "weight": 0.03563066882913146, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "batchbias", "weight": 0.020512372723621893, "source": "statewide fallback" } ], "candidate_benchmarks": { "Abdul El-Sayed": { "opponent": "Haley Stevens", "expected_remaining_share_points": 48.973903537573875, "expected_final_county_share_points": 48.97390353757388, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 47.75327342108671, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 47.75327342108671, "required_final_county_share_points": 47.75327342108671, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 47.75327342108671, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": -2289.8651973880324, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": false }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 47.75327342108671, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 47.75327342108671, "required_final_county_share_points": 47.75327342108671, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 47.75327342108671, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.402435191598066, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.402435191598066, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.402435191598066, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.024044322225107804, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999973, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 49.05134992915548, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 49.05134992915548, "required_final_county_share_points": 49.05134992915548, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.003259695682198218, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.9999999999999996, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": 1.2206301164871647, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "ABOVE", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.0008040878527461583, "criticality_score": 0.0006587481677580037, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -2704.7489435039934, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -320.877153381154, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 925.2148725465881, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Haley Stevens": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 46.149745434179586, "expected_final_county_share_points": 46.14974543417958, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 47.37037555066674, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 47.37037555066674, "required_final_county_share_points": 47.37037555066674, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 47.37037555066674, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 2384.988846359786, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 47.37037555066674, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 47.37037555066674, "required_final_county_share_points": 47.37037555066674, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 47.37037555066674, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.01977805349677, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.01977805349677, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.01977805349677, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.07865391656842785, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.999999999999999, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.6694149671013, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.6694149671013, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.6694149671013, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.10597932088248406, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -1.2206301164871576, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.0008040878527461583, "criticality_score": 0.0006587481677580075, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 2799.872592475747, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 5183.744382598586, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 6429.836408526328, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Mallory McMorrow": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 4.8763510282465425, "expected_final_county_share_points": 4.876351028246543, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 37.136501345834354, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 37.136501345834354, "required_final_county_share_points": 37.136501345834354, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 37.136501345834354, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 56317.25645704531, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 37.136501345834354, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 37.136501345834354, "required_final_county_share_points": 37.136501345834354, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 37.136501345834354, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 37.749746513256014, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 37.749746513256014, "required_final_county_share_points": 37.749746513256014, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.159018308558073, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999906, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 38.359105897231565, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 38.359105897231565, "required_final_county_share_points": 38.359105897231565, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.213613509684069, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.999999999999993, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -32.260150317587815, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "WELL BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.0008040878527461583, "criticality_score": 2.4925111781260984e-05, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 2758.5991980698136, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 5142.470988192653, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 6388.563014120396, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } } } }, { "cid": "26119", "county": "26119", "fips": null, "reporting": 0.0, "current_votes": 0, "current_candidate_votes": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 0, "Haley Stevens": 0, "Mallory McMorrow": 0 }, "current_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": null, "Haley Stevens": null, "Mallory McMorrow": null }, "estimated_remaining_votes": 970.8193904974759, "estimated_final_votes": 970.8193904974759, "turnout_disagreement_votes": 0.0, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 48.27100217759222, "Haley Stevens": 47.573041127080906, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.155956695326873 }, "remaining_sources": [ { "model": "market", "remaining_votes": 970.8193904974759, "weight": 0.1780093144963334 } ], "share_sources": [ { "model": "v0", "weight": 0.03630604611298715, "source": "statewide raw" }, { "model": "v3", "weight": 0.06301781787712588, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "market", "weight": 0.18729675699179427, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "histgeo", "weight": 0.02760802595386354, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "latent", "weight": 0.03563066882913146, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "batchbias", "weight": 0.020512372723621893, "source": "statewide fallback" } ], "candidate_benchmarks": { "Abdul El-Sayed": { "opponent": "Haley Stevens", "expected_remaining_share_points": 48.27100217759222, "expected_final_county_share_points": 48.27100217759222, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 47.04081622790371, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 47.04081622790371, "required_final_county_share_points": 47.04081622790371, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 47.04081622790371, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": -2329.9063710877417, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": false }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 47.04081622790371, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 47.04081622790371, "required_final_county_share_points": 47.04081622790371, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 47.04081622790371, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 47.694883782522766, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 47.694883782522766, "required_final_county_share_points": 47.694883782522766, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.024044322225107804, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999973, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.34910264295541, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.34910264295541, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.34910264295541, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.003259695682198218, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.9999999999999996, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": 1.2301859496885115, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "ABOVE", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.0007907871514225376, "criticality_score": 0.0006428192027577363, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -2751.768284187304, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -327.8007911724904, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 939.2499691362993, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Haley Stevens": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 47.573041127080906, "expected_final_county_share_points": 47.573041127080906, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.8032270767694, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.8032270767694, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.8032270767694, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 48.8032270767694, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 2425.750414392415, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.8032270767694, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.8032270767694, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.8032270767694, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 48.8032270767694, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 49.45713689360831, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 49.45713689360831, "required_final_county_share_points": 49.45713689360831, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.07865391656842785, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.999999999999999, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 50.11088253540306, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 50.11088253540306, "required_final_county_share_points": 50.11088253540306, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.10597932088248406, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -1.2301859496884973, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.0007907871514225376, "criticality_score": 0.0006428192027577437, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 2847.6123274919773, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 5271.5798205067895, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 6538.63058081558, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Mallory McMorrow": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 4.155956695326873, "expected_final_county_share_points": 4.155956695326873, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 34.480137780876035, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 34.480137780876035, "required_final_county_share_points": 34.480137780876035, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 34.480137780876035, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 57263.68618681971, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 34.480137780876035, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 34.480137780876035, "required_final_county_share_points": 34.480137780876035, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 34.480137780876035, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 35.10919125118339, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 35.10919125118339, "required_final_county_share_points": 35.10919125118339, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.159018308558073, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999906, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 35.73638403953086, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 35.73638403953086, "required_final_county_share_points": 35.73638403953086, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.213613509684069, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.999999999999993, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -30.324181085549164, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "WELL BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.0007907871514225376, "criticality_score": 2.6077774340932928e-05, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 2804.195243060223, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 5228.162736075035, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 6495.213496383826, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } } } }, { "cid": "fips:26119", "county": "Montmorency", "fips": "26119", "reporting": 0.0, "current_votes": 0, "current_candidate_votes": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 0, "Haley Stevens": 0, "Mallory McMorrow": 0 }, "current_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": null, "Haley Stevens": null, "Mallory McMorrow": null }, "estimated_remaining_votes": 970.8193904974759, "estimated_final_votes": 970.8193904974759, "turnout_disagreement_votes": 0.0, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 49.03949384088323, "Haley Stevens": 47.07407323538083, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.8864329237359323 }, "remaining_sources": [ { "model": "v3", "remaining_votes": 970.8193904974759, "weight": 0.1342208488636769 }, { "model": "histgeo", "remaining_votes": 970.8193904974759, "weight": 0.05994207394479305 }, { "model": "latent", "remaining_votes": 970.8193904974759, "weight": 0.07672787409296966 }, { "model": "batchbias", "remaining_votes": 970.8193904974759, "weight": 0.045123489075924846 } ], "share_sources": [ { "model": "v0", "weight": 0.03630604611298715, "source": "statewide raw" }, { "model": "v3", "weight": 0.15004242351696637, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "market", "weight": 0.0786646379365536, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "histgeo", "weight": 0.06573339512824654, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "latent", "weight": 0.08483492578364633, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "batchbias", "weight": 0.04883898267529022, "source": "county remaining" } ], "candidate_benchmarks": { "Abdul El-Sayed": { "opponent": "Haley Stevens", "expected_remaining_share_points": 49.03949384088323, "expected_final_county_share_points": 49.03949384088323, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 47.80588195962072, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 47.80588195962072, "required_final_county_share_points": 47.80588195962072, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 47.80588195962072, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": -2329.1378794244542, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": false }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 47.80588195962072, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 47.80588195962072, "required_final_county_share_points": 47.80588195962072, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 47.80588195962072, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.461874862415456, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.461874862415456, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.461874862415456, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.024044322225107804, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999973, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 49.117783654746304, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 49.117783654746304, "required_final_county_share_points": 49.117783654746304, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.003259695682198218, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.9999999999999996, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": 1.2336118812625116, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "ABOVE", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.0007907871514225376, "criticality_score": 0.0006410339941061728, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -2750.999792524013, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -327.0322995091994, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 940.0184607995903, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Haley Stevens": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 47.07407323538083, "expected_final_county_share_points": 47.07407323538084, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.30768511664335, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.30768511664335, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.30768511664335, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 48.30768511664335, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 2425.251446500719, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.30768511664335, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.30768511664335, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.30768511664335, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 48.30768511664335, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.963755639034986, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.963755639034986, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.963755639034986, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.07865391656842785, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.999999999999999, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 49.619897275509025, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 49.619897275509025, "required_final_county_share_points": 49.619897275509025, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.10597932088248406, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -1.2336118812625188, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.0007907871514225376, "criticality_score": 0.0006410339941061691, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 2847.113359600277, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 5271.0808526150895, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 6538.13161292388, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Mallory McMorrow": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 3.8864329237359323, "expected_final_county_share_points": 3.886432923735932, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 33.80865440728037, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 33.80865440728037, "required_final_county_share_points": 33.80865440728037, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 33.80865440728037, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 57263.41666304812, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 33.80865440728037, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 33.80865440728037, "required_final_county_share_points": 33.80865440728037, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 33.80865440728037, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 34.460145424130964, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 34.460145424130964, "required_final_county_share_points": 34.460145424130964, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.159018308558073, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999906, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 35.11101780671713, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 35.11101780671713, "required_final_county_share_points": 35.11101780671712, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.213613509684069, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.999999999999993, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -29.92222148354444, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "WELL BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.0007907871514225376, "criticality_score": 2.6428089634234766e-05, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 2803.925719288632, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 5227.893212303445, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 6494.9439726122355, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } } } }, { "cid": "fips:26149", "county": "St. Joseph", "fips": "26149", "reporting": 73.25, "current_votes": 4494, "current_candidate_votes": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 2060, "Haley Stevens": 2177, "Mallory McMorrow": 257 }, "current_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 45.83889630618603, "Haley Stevens": 48.442367601246104, "Mallory McMorrow": 5.718736092567869 }, "estimated_remaining_votes": 902.6344709897611, "estimated_final_votes": 5396.634470989761, "turnout_disagreement_votes": 470.89502924808846, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 46.86851449995504, "Haley Stevens": 47.973021443942194, "Mallory McMorrow": 5.158464056102759 }, "remaining_sources": [ { "model": "v3", "remaining_votes": 431.73944174167264, "weight": 0.1342208488636769 }, { "model": "histgeo", "remaining_votes": 431.73944174167264, "weight": 0.05994207394479305 }, { "model": "latent", "remaining_votes": 431.73944174167264, "weight": 0.07672787409296966 }, { "model": "batchbias", "remaining_votes": 431.73944174167264, "weight": 0.045123489075924846 } ], "share_sources": [ { "model": "v0", "weight": 0.03630604611298715, "source": "statewide raw" }, { "model": "v1", "weight": 0.14599140026529184, "source": "county live" }, { "model": "v3", "weight": 0.15004242351696637, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "market", "weight": 0.0786646379365536, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "histgeo", "weight": 0.06573339512824654, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "latent", "weight": 0.08483492578364633, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "batchbias", "weight": 0.04883898267529022, "source": "county remaining" } ], "candidate_benchmarks": { "Abdul El-Sayed": { "opponent": "Haley Stevens", "expected_remaining_share_points": 46.86851449995504, "expected_final_county_share_points": 46.011108984041094, "current_county_share_points": 45.83889630618603, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 45.65188775333666, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 45.65188775333666, "required_final_county_share_points": 45.807617484713276, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 45.65188775333666, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": -2510.9561445524573, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": false }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 45.65188775333666, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 45.65188775333666, "required_final_county_share_points": 45.807617484713276, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 45.65188775333666, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 46.298598956611485, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 46.298598956611485, "required_final_county_share_points": 45.91578560838167, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.024044322225107804, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999973, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 46.9457940523936, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 46.9457940523936, "required_final_county_share_points": 46.024034667318084, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.003259695682198218, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.9999999999999996, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": 1.216626746618381, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "ABOVE", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.000735246688597778, "criticality_score": 0.0006043321755348542, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -2964.6854652378643, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -357.6117052761423, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1005.1519453337578, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Haley Stevens": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 47.973021443942194, "expected_final_county_share_points": 48.363865337902816, "current_county_share_points": 48.442367601246104, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 49.18964819056056, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 49.18964819056056, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.567356837230626, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 49.18964819056056, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 2605.797680496355, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 49.18964819056056, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 49.18964819056056, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.567356837230626, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 49.18964819056056, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 49.83586963726213, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 49.83586963726213, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.67544304481451, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.07865391656842785, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.999999999999999, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 50.481595470526784, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 50.481595470526784, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.783446356702036, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.10597932088248406, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -1.216626746618367, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.000735246688597778, "criticality_score": 0.0006043321755348612, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 3059.5270011817615, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 5666.6007611434825, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 7029.364411753383, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Mallory McMorrow": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 5.158464056102759, "expected_final_county_share_points": 5.625025678056083, "current_county_share_points": 5.718736092567869, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 36.97306363539346, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 36.97306363539346, "required_final_county_share_points": 10.946296632273098, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 36.97306363539346, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 61590.067998063605, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 36.97306363539346, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 36.97306363539346, "required_final_county_share_points": 10.946296632273098, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 36.97306363539346, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 37.54161229809277, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 37.54161229809277, "required_final_county_share_points": 11.041391385150336, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.159018308558073, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999906, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 38.10530119734073, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 38.10530119734073, "required_final_county_share_points": 11.13567329994568, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.213613509684069, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.999999999999993, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -31.8145995792907, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "WELL BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.000735246688597778, "criticality_score": 2.3110354941458302e-05, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 3016.712443793922, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 5623.786203755643, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 6986.549854365544, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } } } }, { "cid": "fips:26069", "county": "Iosco", "fips": "26069", "reporting": 68.61, "current_votes": 3460, "current_candidate_votes": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 1338, "Haley Stevens": 1934, "Mallory McMorrow": 188 }, "current_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 38.67052023121387, "Haley Stevens": 55.895953757225435, "Mallory McMorrow": 5.433526011560693 }, "estimated_remaining_votes": 870.6481562454451, "estimated_final_votes": 4330.648156245445, "turnout_disagreement_votes": 257.3568560303338, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 41.80859004391156, "Haley Stevens": 53.24047229596726, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.950937660121192 }, "remaining_sources": [ { "model": "v3", "remaining_votes": 613.2913002151113, "weight": 0.1342208488636769 }, { "model": "histgeo", "remaining_votes": 613.2913002151113, "weight": 0.05994207394479305 }, { "model": "latent", "remaining_votes": 613.2913002151113, "weight": 0.07672787409296966 }, { "model": "batchbias", "remaining_votes": 613.2913002151113, "weight": 0.045123489075924846 } ], "share_sources": [ { "model": "v0", "weight": 0.03630604611298715, "source": "statewide raw" }, { "model": "v1", "weight": 0.14599140026529184, "source": "county live" }, { "model": "v3", "weight": 0.15004242351696637, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "market", "weight": 0.0786646379365536, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "histgeo", "weight": 0.06573339512824654, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "latent", "weight": 0.08483492578364633, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "batchbias", "weight": 0.04883898267529022, "source": "county remaining" } ], "candidate_benchmarks": { "Abdul El-Sayed": { "opponent": "Haley Stevens", "expected_remaining_share_points": 41.80859004391156, "expected_final_county_share_points": 39.30140840268875, "current_county_share_points": 38.67052023121387, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 40.61011657485963, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 40.61011657485963, "required_final_county_share_points": 39.06046324194317, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 40.61011657485963, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": -2609.9867321499078, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": false }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 40.61011657485963, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 40.61011657485963, "required_final_county_share_points": 39.06046324194317, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 40.61011657485963, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 41.246347482975054, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 41.246347482975054, "required_final_county_share_points": 39.1883732561285, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.024044322225107804, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999973, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 41.88494221639375, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 41.88494221639375, "required_final_county_share_points": 39.31675850174982, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.003259695682198218, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.9999999999999996, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": 1.198473469051926, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "ABOVE", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.000709192031090164, "criticality_score": 0.0005917461248860044, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -3080.3853913689763, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -377.5316297503344, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1035.2979249079892, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Haley Stevens": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 53.24047229596726, "expected_final_county_share_points": 55.36208678055726, "current_county_share_points": 55.895953757225435, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 54.43894576501918, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 54.43894576501918, "required_final_county_share_points": 55.60303194130285, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 54.43894576501918, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 2705.0357944897864, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 54.43894576501918, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 54.43894576501918, "required_final_county_share_points": 55.60303194130285, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 54.43894576501918, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 55.07281967362555, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 55.07281967362555, "required_final_county_share_points": 55.73046809633298, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.07865391656842785, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.999999999999999, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 55.70434339349869, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 55.70434339349869, "required_final_county_share_points": 55.8574317614693, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.10597932088248406, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -1.198473469051919, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.000709192031090164, "criticality_score": 0.0005917461248860079, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 3175.434453708855, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 5878.288215327496, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 7291.11776998582, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Mallory McMorrow": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 4.950937660121192, "expected_final_county_share_points": 5.336504816754003, "current_county_share_points": 5.433526011560693, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 33.92239974415517, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 33.92239974415517, "required_final_county_share_points": 11.161025566799761, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 33.92239974415517, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 63852.39819798616, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 33.92239974415517, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 33.92239974415517, "required_final_county_share_points": 11.161025566799761, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 33.92239974415517, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 34.41694257620935, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 34.41694257620935, "required_final_county_share_points": 11.260450130832151, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.159018308558073, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999906, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 34.90649072564821, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 34.90649072564821, "required_final_county_share_points": 11.358870546974163, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.213613509684069, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.999999999999993, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -28.97146208403398, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "WELL BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.000709192031090164, "criticality_score": 2.447898656385022e-05, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 3127.144919073009, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 5829.9986806916495, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 7242.8282353499735, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } } } }, { "cid": "26137", "county": "26137", "fips": null, "reporting": 0.0, "current_votes": 0, "current_candidate_votes": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 0, "Haley Stevens": 0, "Mallory McMorrow": 0 }, "current_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": null, "Haley Stevens": null, "Mallory McMorrow": null }, "estimated_remaining_votes": 852.2585725086306, "estimated_final_votes": 852.2585725086306, "turnout_disagreement_votes": 0.0, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 47.73334889983432, "Haley Stevens": 47.983933728439226, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.282717371726454 }, "remaining_sources": [ { "model": "market", "remaining_votes": 852.2585725086306, "weight": 0.1780093144963334 } ], "share_sources": [ { "model": "v0", "weight": 0.03630604611298715, "source": "statewide raw" }, { "model": "v3", "weight": 0.06301781787712588, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "market", "weight": 0.18729675699179427, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "histgeo", "weight": 0.02760802595386354, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "latent", "weight": 0.03563066882913146, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "batchbias", "weight": 0.020512372723621893, "source": "statewide fallback" } ], "candidate_benchmarks": { "Abdul El-Sayed": { "opponent": "Haley Stevens", "expected_remaining_share_points": 47.73334889983432, "expected_final_county_share_points": 47.73334889983432, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 46.50504540834954, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 46.50504540834954, "required_final_county_share_points": 46.50504540834954, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 46.50504540834954, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": -2661.2810071686804, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": false }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 46.50504540834954, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 46.50504540834954, "required_final_county_share_points": 46.50504540834954, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 46.50504540834954, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 47.15803437089912, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 47.15803437089912, "required_final_county_share_points": 47.158034370899124, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.024044322225107804, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999973, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 47.81135093220695, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 47.81135093220695, "required_final_county_share_points": 47.81135093220695, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.003259695682198218, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.9999999999999996, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": 1.2283034914847804, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "ABOVE", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.0006942126778948905, "criticality_score": 0.0005651800900245934, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -3141.8296793209565, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -380.65517188529714, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1062.6596700312812, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Haley Stevens": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 47.983933728439226, "expected_final_county_share_points": 47.98393372843923, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 49.212237219924006, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 49.212237219924006, "required_final_county_share_points": 49.212237219924006, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 49.212237219924006, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 2756.9982897969544, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 49.212237219924006, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 49.212237219924006, "required_final_county_share_points": 49.212237219924006, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 49.212237219924006, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 49.86489235892511, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 49.86489235892511, "required_final_county_share_points": 49.86489235892511, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.07865391656842785, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.999999999999999, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 50.51720745106789, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 50.51720745106789, "required_final_county_share_points": 50.51720745106789, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.10597932088248406, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -1.2283034914847804, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.0006942126778948905, "criticality_score": 0.0005651800900245934, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 3237.54696194923, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 5998.721469384888, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 7442.036311301467, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Mallory McMorrow": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 4.282717371726454, "expected_final_county_share_points": 4.282717371726454, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 34.689732409927664, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 34.689732409927664, "required_final_county_share_points": 34.689732409927664, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 34.689732409927664, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 65229.39635225773, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 34.689732409927664, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 34.689732409927664, "required_final_county_share_points": 34.689732409927664, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 34.689732409927664, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 35.3052526910459, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 35.3052526910459, "required_final_county_share_points": 35.305252691045894, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.159018308558073, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999906, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 35.91835038075575, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 35.91835038075575, "required_final_county_share_points": 35.91835038075574, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.213613509684069, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.999999999999993, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -30.40701503820121, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "WELL BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.0006942126778948905, "criticality_score": 2.2830674994659328e-05, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 3193.8457455925172, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 5955.020253028176, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 7398.335094944755, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } } } }, { "cid": "fips:26137", "county": "Otsego", "fips": "26137", "reporting": 70.99, "current_votes": 1730, "current_candidate_votes": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 797, "Haley Stevens": 849, "Mallory McMorrow": 84 }, "current_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 46.06936416184971, "Haley Stevens": 49.07514450867052, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.855491329479769 }, "estimated_remaining_votes": 852.2585725086304, "estimated_final_votes": 2582.2585725086306, "turnout_disagreement_votes": 1.1368683772161603e-13, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 47.04144657261356, "Haley Stevens": 48.41599964874527, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.542553778641175 }, "remaining_sources": [ { "model": "v3", "remaining_votes": 852.2585725086306, "weight": 0.1342208488636769 }, { "model": "histgeo", "remaining_votes": 852.2585725086306, "weight": 0.05994207394479305 }, { "model": "latent", "remaining_votes": 852.2585725086306, "weight": 0.07672787409296966 }, { "model": "batchbias", "remaining_votes": 852.2585725086306, "weight": 0.045123489075924846 } ], "share_sources": [ { "model": "v0", "weight": 0.03630604611298715, "source": "statewide raw" }, { "model": "v1", "weight": 0.14599140026529184, "source": "county live" }, { "model": "v3", "weight": 0.15004242351696637, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "market", "weight": 0.0786646379365536, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "histgeo", "weight": 0.06573339512824654, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "latent", "weight": 0.08483492578364633, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "batchbias", "weight": 0.04883898267529022, "source": "county remaining" } ], "candidate_benchmarks": { "Abdul El-Sayed": { "opponent": "Haley Stevens", "expected_remaining_share_points": 47.04144657261356, "expected_final_county_share_points": 46.39019398756058, "current_county_share_points": 46.06936416184971, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 45.81709328779613, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 45.81709328779613, "required_final_county_share_points": 45.986103710206585, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 45.81709328779613, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": -2661.9729094959057, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": false }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 45.81709328779613, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 45.81709328779613, "required_final_county_share_points": 45.986103710206585, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 45.81709328779613, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 46.46789007478823, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 46.46789007478823, "required_final_county_share_points": 46.20089519026206, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.024044322225107804, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999973, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 47.119222755564124, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 47.119222755564124, "required_final_county_share_points": 46.41586353876754, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.003259695682198218, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.9999999999999996, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": 1.2243532848174254, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "ABOVE", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.0006942126778948904, "criticality_score": 0.0005670035654769455, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -3142.5215816481777, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -381.34707421251795, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1061.9677677040604, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Haley Stevens": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 48.41599964874527, "expected_final_county_share_points": 48.85759779844678, "current_county_share_points": 49.07514450867052, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 49.6403529335627, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 49.6403529335627, "required_final_county_share_points": 49.261688075800784, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 49.6403529335627, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 2757.4303557172643, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 49.6403529335627, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 49.6403529335627, "required_final_county_share_points": 49.261688075800784, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 49.6403529335627, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 50.29060804156812, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 50.29060804156812, "required_final_county_share_points": 49.476300778035615, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.07865391656842785, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.999999999999999, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 50.94031569429285, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 50.94031569429285, "required_final_county_share_points": 49.69073279601946, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.10597932088248406, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -1.2243532848174326, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.0006942126778948904, "criticality_score": 0.0005670035654769422, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 3237.9790278695364, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 5999.153535305195, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 7442.468377221774, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Mallory McMorrow": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 4.542553778641175, "expected_final_county_share_points": 4.752208213992636, "current_county_share_points": 4.855491329479769, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 35.23327963833058, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 35.23327963833058, "required_final_county_share_points": 14.88149367320285, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 35.23327963833058, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 65229.65618866465, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 35.23327963833058, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 35.23327963833058, "required_final_county_share_points": 14.88149367320285, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 35.23327963833058, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 35.827673560742, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 35.827673560742, "required_final_county_share_points": 15.077669734428985, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.159018308558073, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999906, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 36.41871480028105, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 36.41871480028105, "required_final_county_share_points": 15.27273926327711, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.213613509684069, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.999999999999993, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -30.690725859689405, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "WELL BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.0006942126778948904, "criticality_score": 2.2619623956392018e-05, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 3194.1055819994326, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 5955.280089435091, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 7398.59493135167, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } } } }, { "cid": "26131", "county": "26131", "fips": null, "reporting": 0.0, "current_votes": 0, "current_candidate_votes": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 0, "Haley Stevens": 0, "Mallory McMorrow": 0 }, "current_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": null, "Haley Stevens": null, "Mallory McMorrow": null }, "estimated_remaining_votes": 850.4069201533449, "estimated_final_votes": 850.4069201533449, "turnout_disagreement_votes": 0.0, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 48.931518107864335, "Haley Stevens": 45.89858485821901, "Mallory McMorrow": 5.169897033916645 }, "remaining_sources": [ { "model": "market", "remaining_votes": 850.4069201533449, "weight": 0.1780093144963334 } ], "share_sources": [ { "model": "v0", "weight": 0.03630604611298715, "source": "statewide raw" }, { "model": "v3", "weight": 0.06301781787712588, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "market", "weight": 0.18729675699179427, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "histgeo", "weight": 0.02760802595386354, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "latent", "weight": 0.03563066882913146, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "batchbias", "weight": 0.020512372723621893, "source": "statewide fallback" } ], "candidate_benchmarks": { "Abdul El-Sayed": { "opponent": "Haley Stevens", "expected_remaining_share_points": 48.931518107864335, "expected_final_county_share_points": 48.931518107864335, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 47.7147553718776, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 47.7147553718776, "required_final_county_share_points": 47.7147553718776, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 47.7147553718776, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": -2665.9813704091066, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": false }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 47.7147553718776, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 47.7147553718776, "required_final_county_share_points": 47.7147553718776, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 47.7147553718776, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.3618782205621, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.3618782205621, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.3618782205621, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.024044322225107804, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999973, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 49.008714285760206, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 49.008714285760206, "required_final_county_share_points": 49.008714285760206, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.003259695682198218, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.9999999999999996, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": 1.216762735986734, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "ABOVE", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.0006927044026113584, "criticality_score": 0.0005693011317030593, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -3147.576375863163, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -380.3897639174344, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1066.0677115585834, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Haley Stevens": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 45.89858485821901, "expected_final_county_share_points": 45.898584858219, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 47.115347594205744, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 47.115347594205744, "required_final_county_share_points": 47.11534759420575, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 47.115347594205744, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 2760.81147337519, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 47.115347594205744, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 47.115347594205744, "required_final_county_share_points": 47.11534759420575, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 47.115347594205744, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 47.762750995046424, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 47.762750995046424, "required_final_county_share_points": 47.762750995046424, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.07865391656842785, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.999999999999999, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.41042869431758, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.41042869431758, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.41042869431758, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.10597932088248406, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -1.216762735986734, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.0006927044026113584, "criticality_score": 0.0005693011317030593, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 3242.406478829246, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 6009.5930907749735, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 7456.050566250991, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Mallory McMorrow": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 5.169897033916645, "expected_final_county_share_points": 5.169897033916644, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 37.98881102713791, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 37.98881102713791, "required_final_county_share_points": 37.98881102713791, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 37.98881102713791, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 65372.30287868632, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 37.98881102713791, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 37.98881102713791, "required_final_county_share_points": 37.98881102713791, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 37.98881102713791, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 38.590358342325835, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 38.590358342325835, "required_final_county_share_points": 38.590358342325835, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.159018308558073, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999906, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 39.18729919802669, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 39.18729919802669, "required_final_county_share_points": 39.1872991980267, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.213613509684069, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.999999999999993, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -32.818913993221265, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "WELL BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.0006927044026113584, "criticality_score": 2.1106865472588037e-05, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 3201.6777910049436, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 5968.864402950671, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 7415.321878426689, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } } } }, { "cid": "fips:26131", "county": "Ontonagon", "fips": "26131", "reporting": 15.380000000000003, "current_votes": 134, "current_candidate_votes": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 65, "Haley Stevens": 59, "Mallory McMorrow": 10 }, "current_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 48.507462686567166, "Haley Stevens": 44.02985074626866, "Mallory McMorrow": 7.462686567164178 }, "estimated_remaining_votes": 850.4069201533448, "estimated_final_votes": 984.4069201533448, "turnout_disagreement_votes": 1.1368683772161603e-13, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 48.87402045235217, "Haley Stevens": 45.59675421851257, "Mallory McMorrow": 5.5292253291352775 }, "remaining_sources": [ { "model": "v3", "remaining_votes": 850.4069201533449, "weight": 0.1342208488636769 }, { "model": "histgeo", "remaining_votes": 850.4069201533449, "weight": 0.05994207394479305 }, { "model": "latent", "remaining_votes": 850.4069201533449, "weight": 0.07672787409296966 }, { "model": "batchbias", "remaining_votes": 850.4069201533449, "weight": 0.045123489075924846 } ], "share_sources": [ { "model": "v0", "weight": 0.03630604611298715, "source": "statewide raw" }, { "model": "v1", "weight": 0.14599140026529184, "source": "county live" }, { "model": "v3", "weight": 0.15004242351696637, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "market", "weight": 0.0786646379365536, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "histgeo", "weight": 0.06573339512824654, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "latent", "weight": 0.08483492578364633, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "batchbias", "weight": 0.04883898267529022, "source": "county remaining" } ], "candidate_benchmarks": { "Abdul El-Sayed": { "opponent": "Haley Stevens", "expected_remaining_share_points": 48.87402045235217, "expected_final_county_share_points": 48.82412366718172, "current_county_share_points": 48.507462686567166, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 47.662003016444935, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 47.662003016444935, "required_final_county_share_points": 47.777089159661735, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 47.662003016444935, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": -2666.038868064616, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": false }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 47.662003016444935, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 47.662003016444935, "required_final_county_share_points": 47.777089159661735, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 47.662003016444935, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.30662311888375, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.30662311888375, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.33396191701551, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.024044322225107804, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999973, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.95090988146713, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.95090988146713, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.89054670959169, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.003259695682198218, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.9999999999999996, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": 1.212017435907235, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "ABOVE", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.0006927044026113582, "criticality_score": 0.0005715300639159915, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -3147.6338735186755, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -380.4472615729466, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1066.0102139030714, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Haley Stevens": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 45.59675421851257, "expected_final_county_share_points": 45.38346329076495, "current_county_share_points": 44.02985074626866, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 46.80877165441981, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 46.80877165441981, "required_final_county_share_points": 46.43049779828494, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 46.80877165441981, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 2760.5096427354806, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 46.80877165441981, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 46.80877165441981, "required_final_county_share_points": 46.43049779828494, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 46.80877165441981, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 47.45371895750576, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 47.45371895750576, "required_final_county_share_points": 46.987653216892824, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.07865391656842785, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.999999999999999, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.09898729792121, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.09898729792121, "required_final_county_share_points": 47.545085972403804, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.10597932088248406, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -1.212017435907235, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.0006927044026113582, "criticality_score": 0.0005715300639159915, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 3242.10464818954, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 6009.291260135268, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 7455.748735611287, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Mallory McMorrow": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 5.5292253291352775, "expected_final_county_share_points": 5.79241304205334, "current_county_share_points": 7.462686567164178, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 38.9677051107853, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 38.9677051107853, "required_final_county_share_points": 34.679161015435376, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 38.9677051107853, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 65372.66220698154, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 38.9677051107853, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 38.9677051107853, "required_final_county_share_points": 34.679161015435376, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 38.9677051107853, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 39.55510443249594, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 39.55510443249594, "required_final_county_share_points": 35.18660203179708, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.159018308558073, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999906, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 40.13713644890032, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 40.13713644890032, "required_final_county_share_points": 35.68940635424536, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.213613509684069, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.999999999999993, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -33.438479781650024, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "WELL BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.0006927044026113582, "criticality_score": 2.0715786337616115e-05, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 3202.037119300163, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 5969.223731245891, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 7415.68120672191, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } } } }, { "cid": "26033", "county": "26033", "fips": null, "reporting": 0.0, "current_votes": 0, "current_candidate_votes": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 0, "Haley Stevens": 0, "Mallory McMorrow": 0 }, "current_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": null, "Haley Stevens": null, "Mallory McMorrow": null }, "estimated_remaining_votes": 767.4548380501775, "estimated_final_votes": 767.4548380501775, "turnout_disagreement_votes": 1.1368683772161603e-13, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 48.358024573335435, "Haley Stevens": 46.84461290915929, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.797362517505271 }, "remaining_sources": [ { "model": "market", "remaining_votes": 767.4548380501774, "weight": 0.1780093144963334 } ], "share_sources": [ { "model": "v0", "weight": 0.03630604611298715, "source": "statewide raw" }, { "model": "v3", "weight": 0.06301781787712588, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "market", "weight": 0.18729675699179427, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "histgeo", "weight": 0.02760802595386354, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "latent", "weight": 0.03563066882913146, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "batchbias", "weight": 0.020512372723621893, "source": "statewide fallback" } ], "candidate_benchmarks": { "Abdul El-Sayed": { "opponent": "Haley Stevens", "expected_remaining_share_points": 48.358024573335435, "expected_final_county_share_points": 48.35802457333544, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 47.136045017659214, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 47.136045017659214, "required_final_county_share_points": 47.136045017659214, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 47.136045017659214, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": -2960.0023290783697, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": false }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 47.136045017659214, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 47.136045017659214, "required_final_county_share_points": 47.136045017659214, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 47.136045017659214, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 47.785816677498715, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 47.785816677498715, "required_final_county_share_points": 47.785816677498715, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.024044322225107804, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999973, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.43558579599191, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.43558579599191, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.43558579599191, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.003259695682198218, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.9999999999999996, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": 1.2219795556762207, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "ABOVE", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.0006251352529291315, "criticality_score": 0.0005115758688640198, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -3493.6516137580165, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -427.3674137221609, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1175.4336709351724, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Haley Stevens": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 46.84461290915929, "expected_final_county_share_points": 46.84461290915929, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.0665924648355, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.0665924648355, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.0665924648355, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 48.0665924648355, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 3055.2049665608642, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.0665924648355, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.0665924648355, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.0665924648355, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 48.0665924648355, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.71636022190207, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.71636022190207, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.71636022190207, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.07865391656842785, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.999999999999999, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 49.36611762077301, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 49.36611762077301, "required_final_county_share_points": 49.36611762077302, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.10597932088248406, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -1.2219795556762136, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.0006251352529291315, "criticality_score": 0.0005115758688640227, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 3588.8542512405115, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 6655.138451276366, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 8257.9395359337, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Mallory McMorrow": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 4.797362517505271, "expected_final_county_share_points": 4.797362517505271, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 36.61545588918153, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 36.61545588918153, "required_final_county_share_points": 36.615455889181526, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 36.61545588918153, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 72437.2839169207, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 36.61545588918153, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 36.61545588918153, "required_final_county_share_points": 36.615455889181526, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 36.61545588918153, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 37.22165594786729, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 37.22165594786729, "required_final_county_share_points": 37.22165594786729, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.159018308558073, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999906, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 37.82406516876479, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 37.82406516876479, "required_final_county_share_points": 37.82406516876479, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.213613509684069, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.999999999999993, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -31.818093371676262, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "WELL BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.0006251352529291315, "criticality_score": 1.9647162563348708e-05, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 3546.8070008488576, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 6613.091200884713, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 8215.892285542046, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } } } }, { "cid": "fips:26033", "county": "Chippewa", "fips": "26033", "reporting": 77.91, "current_votes": 2769, "current_candidate_votes": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 1316, "Haley Stevens": 1287, "Mallory McMorrow": 166 }, "current_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 47.52618273745035, "Haley Stevens": 46.478873239436616, "Mallory McMorrow": 5.994944023113037 }, "estimated_remaining_votes": 767.4548380501773, "estimated_final_votes": 3536.4548380501774, "turnout_disagreement_votes": 1.1368683772161603e-13, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 48.06033288096654, "Haley Stevens": 46.57252147150088, "Mallory McMorrow": 5.3671456475325705 }, "remaining_sources": [ { "model": "v3", "remaining_votes": 767.4548380501774, "weight": 0.1342208488636769 }, { "model": "histgeo", "remaining_votes": 767.4548380501774, "weight": 0.05994207394479305 }, { "model": "latent", "remaining_votes": 767.4548380501774, "weight": 0.07672787409296966 }, { "model": "batchbias", "remaining_votes": 767.4548380501774, "weight": 0.045123489075924846 } ], "share_sources": [ { "model": "v0", "weight": 0.03630604611298715, "source": "statewide raw" }, { "model": "v1", "weight": 0.14599140026529184, "source": "county live" }, { "model": "v3", "weight": 0.15004242351696637, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "market", "weight": 0.0786646379365536, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "histgeo", "weight": 0.06573339512824654, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "latent", "weight": 0.08483492578364633, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "batchbias", "weight": 0.04883898267529022, "source": "county remaining" } ], "candidate_benchmarks": { "Abdul El-Sayed": { "opponent": "Haley Stevens", "expected_remaining_share_points": 48.06033288096654, "expected_final_county_share_points": 47.64209998527605, "current_county_share_points": 47.52618273745035, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 46.84566555000326, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 46.84566555000326, "required_final_county_share_points": 47.378502014296956, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 46.84566555000326, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": -2960.3000207707323, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": false }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 46.84566555000326, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 46.84566555000326, "required_final_county_share_points": 47.378502014296956, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 46.84566555000326, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 47.49154767234932, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 47.49154767234932, "required_final_county_share_points": 47.51866649604611, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.024044322225107804, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999973, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.13743035170098, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.13743035170098, "required_final_county_share_points": 47.65883109867243, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.003259695682198218, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.9999999999999996, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": 1.2146673309632803, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "ABOVE", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.0006251352529291313, "criticality_score": 0.0005146555250097768, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -3493.949305450387, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -427.66510541453, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1175.135979242804, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Haley Stevens": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 46.57252147150088, "expected_final_county_share_points": 46.49919607461021, "current_county_share_points": 46.478873239436616, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 47.787188802464165, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 47.787188802464165, "required_final_county_share_points": 46.762794045589324, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 47.787188802464165, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 3054.932875123199, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 47.787188802464165, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 47.787188802464165, "required_final_county_share_points": 46.762794045589324, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 47.787188802464165, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.43306396229175, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.43306396229175, "required_final_county_share_points": 46.90295701638507, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.07865391656842785, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.999999999999999, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 49.07892574297455, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 49.07892574297455, "required_final_county_share_points": 47.04311708373942, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.10597932088248406, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -1.2146673309632874, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.0006251352529291313, "criticality_score": 0.0005146555250097738, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 3588.582159802854, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 6654.866359838711, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 8257.667444496044, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Mallory McMorrow": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 5.3671456475325705, "expected_final_county_share_points": 5.858703940113726, "current_county_share_points": 5.994944023113037, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 38.12764729820396, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 38.12764729820396, "required_final_county_share_points": 12.968141679355638, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 38.12764729820396, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 72437.85370005073, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 38.12764729820396, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 38.12764729820396, "required_final_county_share_points": 12.968141679355638, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 38.12764729820396, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 38.70781627578959, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 38.70781627578959, "required_final_county_share_points": 13.09404558853159, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.159018308558073, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999906, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 39.28284468911493, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 39.28284468911493, "required_final_county_share_points": 13.218833931104108, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.213613509684069, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.999999999999993, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -32.76050165067139, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "WELL BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.0006251352529291313, "criticality_score": 1.9081980477436307e-05, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 3547.376783978886, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 6613.660984014742, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 8216.462068672077, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } } } }, { "cid": "26069", "county": "26069", "fips": null, "reporting": 0.0, "current_votes": 0, "current_candidate_votes": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 0, "Haley Stevens": 0, "Mallory McMorrow": 0 }, "current_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": null, "Haley Stevens": null, "Mallory McMorrow": null }, "estimated_remaining_votes": 613.2913002151113, "estimated_final_votes": 613.2913002151113, "turnout_disagreement_votes": 0.0, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 44.57372764172937, "Haley Stevens": 50.919833119769066, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.506439238501557 }, "remaining_sources": [ { "model": "market", "remaining_votes": 613.2913002151113, "weight": 0.1780093144963334 } ], "share_sources": [ { "model": "v0", "weight": 0.03630604611298715, "source": "statewide raw" }, { "model": "v3", "weight": 0.06301781787712588, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "market", "weight": 0.18729675699179427, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "histgeo", "weight": 0.02760802595386354, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "latent", "weight": 0.03563066882913146, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "batchbias", "weight": 0.020512372723621893, "source": "statewide fallback" } ], "candidate_benchmarks": { "Abdul El-Sayed": { "opponent": "Haley Stevens", "expected_remaining_share_points": 44.57372764172937, "expected_final_county_share_points": 44.57372764172938, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 43.35569435846791, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 43.35569435846791, "required_final_county_share_points": 43.35569435846791, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 43.35569435846791, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": -3720.0006388926363, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": false }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 43.35569435846791, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 43.35569435846791, "required_final_county_share_points": 43.35569435846791, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 43.35569435846791, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 44.00272694939124, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 44.00272694939124, "required_final_county_share_points": 44.00272694939124, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.024044322225107804, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999973, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 44.65121227002415, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 44.65121227002415, "required_final_county_share_points": 44.651212270024146, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.003259695682198218, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.9999999999999996, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": 1.2180332832614624, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "ABOVE", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.0004995603559595291, "criticality_score": 0.00041013686803523393, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -4387.79378255172, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -550.7352047943939, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1454.9633049038432, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Haley Stevens": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 50.919833119769066, "expected_final_county_share_points": 50.919833119769066, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 52.13786640303053, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 52.13786640303053, "required_final_county_share_points": 52.13786640303053, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 52.13786640303053, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 3815.4941996541347, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 52.13786640303053, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 52.13786640303053, "required_final_county_share_points": 52.13786640303053, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 52.13786640303053, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 52.78344474495713, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 52.78344474495713, "required_final_county_share_points": 52.78344474495713, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.07865391656842785, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.999999999999999, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 53.4275673428555, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 53.4275673428555, "required_final_county_share_points": 53.4275673428555, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.10597932088248406, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -1.2180332832614624, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.0004995603559595291, "criticality_score": 0.00041013686803523393, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 4483.287343313219, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 8320.345921070544, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 10326.044430768781, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Mallory McMorrow": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 4.506439238501557, "expected_final_county_share_points": 4.506439238501556, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 34.006699676915666, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 34.006699676915666, "required_final_county_share_points": 34.006699676915666, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 34.006699676915666, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 90644.40662807779, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 34.006699676915666, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 34.006699676915666, "required_final_county_share_points": 34.006699676915666, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 34.006699676915666, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 34.562275485625996, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 34.562275485625996, "required_final_county_share_points": 34.562275485625996, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.159018308558073, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999906, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 35.11414037128412, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 35.11414037128412, "required_final_county_share_points": 35.11414037128412, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.213613509684069, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.999999999999993, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -29.50026043841411, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "WELL BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.0004995603559595291, "criticality_score": 1.6934099853200643e-05, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 4436.873949431951, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 8273.932527189276, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 10279.631036887513, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } } } }, { "cid": "26085", "county": "26085", "fips": null, "reporting": 0.0, "current_votes": 0, "current_candidate_votes": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 0, "Haley Stevens": 0, "Mallory McMorrow": 0 }, "current_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": null, "Haley Stevens": null, "Mallory McMorrow": null }, "estimated_remaining_votes": 506.3753173110222, "estimated_final_votes": 506.3753173110222, "turnout_disagreement_votes": 0.0, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 43.199115891722116, "Haley Stevens": 52.26858402263711, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.5323000856407685 }, "remaining_sources": [ { "model": "market", "remaining_votes": 506.3753173110222, "weight": 0.1780093144963334 } ], "share_sources": [ { "model": "v0", "weight": 0.03630604611298715, "source": "statewide raw" }, { "model": "v3", "weight": 0.06301781787712588, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "market", "weight": 0.18729675699179427, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "histgeo", "weight": 0.02760802595386354, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "latent", "weight": 0.03563066882913146, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "batchbias", "weight": 0.020512372723621893, "source": "statewide fallback" } ], "candidate_benchmarks": { "Abdul El-Sayed": { "opponent": "Haley Stevens", "expected_remaining_share_points": 43.199115891722116, "expected_final_county_share_points": 43.199115891722116, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 41.98793525189698, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 41.98793525189698, "required_final_county_share_points": 41.98793525189698, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 41.98793525189698, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": -4516.226727114481, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": false }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 41.98793525189698, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 41.98793525189698, "required_final_county_share_points": 41.98793525189698, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 41.98793525189698, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 42.63110711518375, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 42.63110711518375, "required_final_county_share_points": 42.63110711518375, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.024044322225107804, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999973, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 43.2762245340953, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 43.2762245340953, "required_final_county_share_points": 43.2762245340953, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.003259695682198218, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.9999999999999996, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": 1.2111806398251375, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "ABOVE", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.00041247125742088065, "criticality_score": 0.00034055304705038106, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -5325.01758114788, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -677.8032251034496, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1751.3780655336166, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Haley Stevens": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 52.26858402263711, "expected_final_county_share_points": 52.268584022637114, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 53.479764662462244, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 53.479764662462244, "required_final_county_share_points": 53.479764662462244, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 53.479764662462244, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 4611.69442702884, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 53.479764662462244, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 53.479764662462244, "required_final_county_share_points": 53.479764662462244, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 53.479764662462244, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 54.12099340817025, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 54.12099340817025, "required_final_county_share_points": 54.12099340817025, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.07865391656842785, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.999999999999999, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 54.760281486804985, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 54.760281486804985, "required_final_county_share_points": 54.760281486804985, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.10597932088248406, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -1.2111806398251375, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.00041247125742088065, "criticality_score": 0.00034055304705038106, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 5420.485281062239, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 10067.699637106669, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 12496.880927743736, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Mallory McMorrow": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 4.5323000856407685, "expected_final_county_share_points": 4.532300085640768, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 33.44575257067542, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 33.44575257067542, "required_final_county_share_points": 33.44575257067542, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 33.44575257067542, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 109782.12282991371, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 33.44575257067542, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 33.44575257067542, "required_final_county_share_points": 33.44575257067542, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 33.44575257067542, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 33.9780176856445, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 33.9780176856445, "required_final_county_share_points": 33.9780176856445, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.159018308558073, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999906, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 34.506289168794844, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 34.506289168794844, "required_final_county_share_points": 34.506289168794844, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.213613509684069, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.999999999999993, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -28.913452485034647, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "WELL BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.00041247125742088065, "criticality_score": 1.4265721384686668e-05, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 5372.748997125243, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 10019.963353169673, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 12449.14464380674, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } } } }, { "cid": "fips:26085", "county": "Lake", "fips": "26085", "reporting": 61.51, "current_votes": 799, "current_candidate_votes": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 276, "Haley Stevens": 479, "Mallory McMorrow": 44 }, "current_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 34.54317897371715, "Haley Stevens": 59.94993742177722, "Mallory McMorrow": 5.506883604505632 }, "estimated_remaining_votes": 506.3753173110221, "estimated_final_votes": 1305.3753173110222, "turnout_disagreement_votes": 5.684341886080802e-14, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 39.11686072945762, "Haley Stevens": 55.90233128974575, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.980807980796619 }, "remaining_sources": [ { "model": "v3", "remaining_votes": 506.3753173110222, "weight": 0.1342208488636769 }, { "model": "histgeo", "remaining_votes": 506.3753173110222, "weight": 0.05994207394479305 }, { "model": "latent", "remaining_votes": 506.3753173110222, "weight": 0.07672787409296966 }, { "model": "batchbias", "remaining_votes": 506.3753173110222, "weight": 0.045123489075924846 } ], "share_sources": [ { "model": "v0", "weight": 0.03630604611298715, "source": "statewide raw" }, { "model": "v1", "weight": 0.14599140026529184, "source": "county live" }, { "model": "v3", "weight": 0.15004242351696637, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "market", "weight": 0.0786646379365536, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "histgeo", "weight": 0.06573339512824654, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "latent", "weight": 0.08483492578364633, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "batchbias", "weight": 0.04883898267529022, "source": "county remaining" } ], "candidate_benchmarks": { "Abdul El-Sayed": { "opponent": "Haley Stevens", "expected_remaining_share_points": 39.11686072945762, "expected_final_county_share_points": 36.31738101326045, "current_county_share_points": 34.54317897371715, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 37.94081195697267, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 37.94081195697267, "required_final_county_share_points": 35.861173467091255, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 37.94081195697267, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": -4520.308982276743, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": false }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 37.94081195697267, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 37.94081195697267, "required_final_county_share_points": 35.861173467091255, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 37.94081195697267, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 38.56471605988728, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 38.56471605988728, "required_final_county_share_points": 36.103195538364844, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.024044322225107804, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999973, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 39.19189925850463, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 39.19189925850463, "required_final_county_share_points": 36.34648962168352, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.003259695682198218, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.9999999999999996, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": 1.176048772484954, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "ABOVE", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.0004124712574208806, "criticality_score": 0.00035072631941049674, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -5329.099836310145, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -681.8854802657142, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1747.2958103713522, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Haley Stevens": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 55.90233128974575, "expected_final_county_share_points": 58.37980827020148, "current_county_share_points": 59.94993742177722, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 57.07838006223073, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 57.07838006223073, "required_final_county_share_points": 58.836015816370676, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 57.07838006223073, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 4615.328174295947, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 57.07838006223073, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 57.07838006223073, "required_final_county_share_points": 58.836015816370676, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 57.07838006223073, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 57.69902457924698, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 57.69902457924698, "required_final_county_share_points": 59.0767734437547, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.07865391656842785, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.999999999999999, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 58.31642887030091, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 58.31642887030091, "required_final_county_share_points": 59.316274137268366, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.10597932088248406, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -1.1760487724849753, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.0004124712574208806, "criticality_score": 0.0003507263194104904, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 5424.119028329349, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 10071.333384373778, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 12500.514675010847, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Mallory McMorrow": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 4.980807980796619, "expected_final_county_share_points": 5.302810716538061, "current_county_share_points": 5.506883604505632, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 32.618089802627765, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 32.618089802627765, "required_final_county_share_points": 16.023740679402863, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 32.618089802627765, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 109782.5713378089, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 32.618089802627765, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 32.618089802627765, "required_final_county_share_points": 16.023740679402863, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 32.618089802627765, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 33.06865824537867, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 33.06865824537867, "required_final_county_share_points": 16.198523161607532, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.159018308558073, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999906, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 33.51400724966242, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 33.51400724966242, "required_final_county_share_points": 16.37128094273585, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.213613509684069, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.999999999999993, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -27.637281821831145, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "WELL BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.0004124712574208806, "criticality_score": 1.4924450967354639e-05, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 5373.197505020399, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 10020.41186106483, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 12449.593151701898, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } } } }, { "cid": "26149", "county": "26149", "fips": null, "reporting": 0.0, "current_votes": 0, "current_candidate_votes": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 0, "Haley Stevens": 0, "Mallory McMorrow": 0 }, "current_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": null, "Haley Stevens": null, "Mallory McMorrow": null }, "estimated_remaining_votes": 431.73944174167264, "estimated_final_votes": 431.73944174167264, "turnout_disagreement_votes": 0.0, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 48.09341329613262, "Haley Stevens": 47.29472391385695, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.611862790010428 }, "remaining_sources": [ { "model": "market", "remaining_votes": 431.73944174167264, "weight": 0.1780093144963334 } ], "share_sources": [ { "model": "v0", "weight": 0.03630604611298715, "source": "statewide raw" }, { "model": "v3", "weight": 0.06301781787712588, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "market", "weight": 0.18729675699179427, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "histgeo", "weight": 0.02760802595386354, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "latent", "weight": 0.03563066882913146, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "batchbias", "weight": 0.020512372723621893, "source": "statewide fallback" } ], "candidate_benchmarks": { "Abdul El-Sayed": { "opponent": "Haley Stevens", "expected_remaining_share_points": 48.09341329613262, "expected_final_county_share_points": 48.093413296132624, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 46.86906565632576, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 46.86906565632576, "required_final_county_share_points": 46.86906565632576, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 46.86906565632576, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": -5299.531762422187, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": false }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 46.86906565632576, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 46.86906565632576, "required_final_county_share_points": 46.86906565632576, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 46.86906565632576, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 47.52003762443523, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 47.52003762443523, "required_final_county_share_points": 47.52003762443523, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.024044322225107804, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999973, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.171140791551124, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.171140791551124, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.171140791551124, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.003259695682198218, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.9999999999999996, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": 1.224347639806858, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "ABOVE", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.0003516761270257525, "criticality_score": 0.0002872355167697548, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -6248.140311359131, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -797.5504031005931, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 2051.569524164121, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Haley Stevens": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 47.29472391385695, "expected_final_county_share_points": 47.29472391385695, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.51907155366379, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.51907155366379, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.5190715536638, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 48.51907155366379, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 5394.919899632177, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.51907155366379, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.51907155366379, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.5190715536638, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 48.51907155366379, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 49.169905908368946, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 49.169905908368946, "required_final_county_share_points": 49.169905908368946, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.07865391656842785, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.999999999999999, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 49.820596229238916, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 49.820596229238916, "required_final_county_share_points": 49.82059622923891, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.10597932088248406, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -1.2243476398068438, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.0003516761270257525, "criticality_score": 0.0002872355167697581, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 6343.528448569121, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 11794.11835682766, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 14643.238284092375, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Mallory McMorrow": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 4.611862790010428, "expected_final_county_share_points": 4.611862790010428, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 35.91946525106776, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 35.91946525106776, "required_final_county_share_points": 35.91946525106776, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 35.91946525106776, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 128759.72863862103, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 35.91946525106776, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 35.91946525106776, "required_final_county_share_points": 35.91946525106776, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 35.91946525106776, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 36.52837432585997, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 36.52837432585997, "required_final_county_share_points": 36.52837432585997, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.159018308558073, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999906, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 37.13394601749837, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 37.13394601749837, "required_final_county_share_points": 37.13394601749837, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.213613509684069, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.999999999999993, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -31.307602461057336, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "WELL BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.0003516761270257525, "criticality_score": 1.1232930642427593e-05, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 6300.845587445275, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 11751.435495703812, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 14600.555422968528, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } } } }, { "cid": "26041", "county": "26041", "fips": null, "reporting": 0.0, "current_votes": 0, "current_candidate_votes": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 0, "Haley Stevens": 0, "Mallory McMorrow": 0 }, "current_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": null, "Haley Stevens": null, "Mallory McMorrow": null }, "estimated_remaining_votes": 396.7759728493211, "estimated_final_votes": 396.7759728493211, "turnout_disagreement_votes": 0.0, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 48.08364132586007, "Haley Stevens": 45.5273372645442, "Mallory McMorrow": 6.389021409595729 }, "remaining_sources": [ { "model": "market", "remaining_votes": 396.7759728493211, "weight": 0.1780093144963334 } ], "share_sources": [ { "model": "v0", "weight": 0.03630604611298715, "source": "statewide raw" }, { "model": "v3", "weight": 0.06301781787712588, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "market", "weight": 0.18729675699179427, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "histgeo", "weight": 0.02760802595386354, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "latent", "weight": 0.03563066882913146, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "batchbias", "weight": 0.020512372723621893, "source": "statewide fallback" } ], "candidate_benchmarks": { "Abdul El-Sayed": { "opponent": "Haley Stevens", "expected_remaining_share_points": 48.08364132586007, "expected_final_county_share_points": 48.08364132586007, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 46.882332138824054, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 46.882332138824054, "required_final_county_share_points": 46.882332138824054, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 46.882332138824054, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": -5770.768471690379, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": false }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 46.882332138824054, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 46.882332138824054, "required_final_county_share_points": 46.882332138824054, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 46.882332138824054, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 47.521200255812126, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 47.521200255812126, "required_final_county_share_points": 47.52120025581212, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.024044322225107804, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999973, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.15986680414474, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.15986680414474, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.15986680414474, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.003259695682198218, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.9999999999999996, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": 1.201309187036017, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "ABOVE", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.0003231964095418802, "criticality_score": 0.00026903682501529914, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -6802.9673783135395, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -872.077392069347, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 2228.1038966788874, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Haley Stevens": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 45.5273372645442, "expected_final_county_share_points": 45.5273372645442, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 46.72864645158021, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 46.72864645158021, "required_final_county_share_points": 46.72864645158021, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 46.72864645158021, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 5864.379450280782, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 46.72864645158021, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 46.72864645158021, "required_final_county_share_points": 46.72864645158021, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 46.72864645158021, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 47.36770989370302, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 47.36770989370302, "required_final_county_share_points": 47.36770989370302, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.07865391656842785, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.999999999999999, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.00696239847128, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.00696239847128, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.00696239847128, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.10597932088248406, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -1.20130918703601, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.0003231964095418802, "criticality_score": 0.00026903682501530076, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 6896.578356903944, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 12827.468343148135, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 15927.649631896371, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Mallory McMorrow": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 6.389021409595729, "expected_final_county_share_points": 6.38902140959573, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 40.73450052487804, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 40.73450052487804, "required_final_county_share_points": 40.73450052487804, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 40.73450052487804, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 140107.26720460394, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 40.73450052487804, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 40.73450052487804, "required_final_county_share_points": 40.73450052487804, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 40.73450052487804, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 41.279401133486175, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 41.279401133486175, "required_final_county_share_points": 41.279401133486175, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.159018308558073, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999906, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 41.81752857507337, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 41.81752857507337, "required_final_county_share_points": 41.81752857507337, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.213613509684069, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.999999999999993, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -34.34547911528231, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "WELL BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.0003231964095418802, "criticality_score": 9.410158712797553e-06, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 6857.440041048995, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 12788.330027293187, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 15888.511316041422, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } } } }, { "cid": "fips:26041", "county": "Delta", "fips": "26041", "reporting": 89.81, "current_votes": 4266, "current_candidate_votes": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 1995, "Haley Stevens": 1874, "Mallory McMorrow": 397 }, "current_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 46.76511954992968, "Haley Stevens": 43.92873886544773, "Mallory McMorrow": 9.306141584622598 }, "estimated_remaining_votes": 396.775972849321, "estimated_final_votes": 4662.775972849321, "turnout_disagreement_votes": 5.684341886080802e-14, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 47.48700038799759, "Haley Stevens": 44.73470989203269, "Mallory McMorrow": 7.778289719969729 }, "remaining_sources": [ { "model": "v3", "remaining_votes": 396.7759728493211, "weight": 0.1342208488636769 }, { "model": "histgeo", "remaining_votes": 396.7759728493211, "weight": 0.05994207394479305 }, { "model": "latent", "remaining_votes": 396.7759728493211, "weight": 0.07672787409296966 }, { "model": "batchbias", "remaining_votes": 396.7759728493211, "weight": 0.045123489075924846 } ], "share_sources": [ { "model": "v0", "weight": 0.03630604611298715, "source": "statewide raw" }, { "model": "v1", "weight": 0.14599140026529184, "source": "county live" }, { "model": "v3", "weight": 0.15004242351696637, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "market", "weight": 0.0786646379365536, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "histgeo", "weight": 0.06573339512824654, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "latent", "weight": 0.08483492578364633, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "batchbias", "weight": 0.04883898267529022, "source": "county remaining" } ], "candidate_benchmarks": { "Abdul El-Sayed": { "opponent": "Haley Stevens", "expected_remaining_share_points": 47.48700038799759, "expected_final_county_share_points": 46.826547543355375, "current_county_share_points": 46.76511954992968, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 46.303614269873, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 46.303614269873, "required_final_county_share_points": 46.725848049961456, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 46.303614269873, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": -5771.365112628237, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": false }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 46.303614269873, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 46.303614269873, "required_final_county_share_points": 46.725848049961456, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 46.303614269873, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 46.932969918797156, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 46.932969918797156, "required_final_county_share_points": 46.77940267092633, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.024044322225107804, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999973, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 47.56208340910016, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 47.56208340910016, "required_final_county_share_points": 46.83293668555648, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.003259695682198218, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.9999999999999996, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": 1.183386118124588, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "ABOVE", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.00032319640954188016, "criticality_score": 0.00027311154372342716, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -6803.564019251403, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -872.6740330072097, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 2227.5072557410253, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Haley Stevens": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 44.73470989203269, "expected_final_county_share_points": 43.99732246028987, "current_county_share_points": 43.92873886544773, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 45.91809601015729, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 45.91809601015729, "required_final_county_share_points": 44.09802195368379, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 45.91809601015729, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 5863.586822908267, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 45.91809601015729, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 45.91809601015729, "required_final_county_share_points": 44.09802195368379, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 45.91809601015729, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 46.54768771232132, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 46.54768771232132, "required_final_county_share_points": 44.15159666144985, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.07865391656842785, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.999999999999999, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 47.177509341970435, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 47.177509341970435, "required_final_county_share_points": 44.20519093474986, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.10597932088248406, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -1.1833861181246021, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.00032319640954188016, "criticality_score": 0.0002731115437234239, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 6895.785729531433, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 12826.675715775626, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 15926.857004523861, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Mallory McMorrow": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 7.778289719969729, "expected_final_county_share_points": 9.176129996354751, "current_county_share_points": 9.306141584622598, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 43.39344995198057, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 43.39344995198057, "required_final_county_share_points": 12.2067795346394, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 43.39344995198057, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 140108.6564729143, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 43.39344995198057, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 43.39344995198057, "required_final_county_share_points": 12.2067795346394, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 43.39344995198057, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 43.88688984856548, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 43.88688984856548, "required_final_county_share_points": 12.24876849060687, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.159018308558073, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999906, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 44.37228310234459, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 44.37228310234459, "required_final_county_share_points": 12.290072722593168, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.213613509684069, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.999999999999993, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -35.615160232010844, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "WELL BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.00032319640954188016, "criticality_score": 9.074686381767048e-06, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 6858.82930935937, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 12789.719295603563, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 15889.900584351799, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } } } }, { "cid": "fips:26013", "county": "Baraga", "fips": "26013", "reporting": 66.21, "current_votes": 527, "current_candidate_votes": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 227, "Haley Stevens": 251, "Mallory McMorrow": 49 }, "current_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 43.07400379506641, "Haley Stevens": 47.6280834914611, "Mallory McMorrow": 9.297912713472485 }, "estimated_remaining_votes": 336.3151388567894, "estimated_final_votes": 863.3151388567894, "turnout_disagreement_votes": 0.0, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 44.94674107975395, "Haley Stevens": 47.400994030102744, "Mallory McMorrow": 7.652264890143298 }, "remaining_sources": [ { "model": "v3", "remaining_votes": 336.3151388567894, "weight": 0.1342208488636769 }, { "model": "histgeo", "remaining_votes": 336.3151388567894, "weight": 0.05994207394479305 }, { "model": "latent", "remaining_votes": 336.3151388567894, "weight": 0.07672787409296966 }, { "model": "batchbias", "remaining_votes": 336.3151388567894, "weight": 0.045123489075924846 } ], "share_sources": [ { "model": "v0", "weight": 0.03630604611298715, "source": "statewide raw" }, { "model": "v1", "weight": 0.14599140026529184, "source": "county live" }, { "model": "v3", "weight": 0.15004242351696637, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "market", "weight": 0.0786646379365536, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "histgeo", "weight": 0.06573339512824654, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "latent", "weight": 0.08483492578364633, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "batchbias", "weight": 0.04883898267529022, "source": "county remaining" } ], "candidate_benchmarks": { "Abdul El-Sayed": { "opponent": "Haley Stevens", "expected_remaining_share_points": 44.94674107975395, "expected_final_county_share_points": 43.80355187269656, "current_county_share_points": 43.07400379506641, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 43.76323433444735, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 43.76323433444735, "required_final_county_share_points": 43.34250211523162, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 43.76323433444735, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": -6819.985702509919, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": false }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 43.76323433444735, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 43.76323433444735, "required_final_county_share_points": 43.34250211523162, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 43.76323433444735, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 44.39222735989403, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 44.39222735989403, "required_final_county_share_points": 43.587534163404875, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.024044322225107804, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999973, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 45.02194749588468, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 45.02194749588468, "required_final_county_share_points": 43.83284946652473, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.003259695682198218, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.9999999999999996, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": 1.1835067453066017, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "ABOVE", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.0002739476500366905, "criticality_score": 0.00023147113535522865, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -8037.747492067101, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -1040.6356399110903, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 2616.878711163475, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Haley Stevens": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 47.400994030102744, "expected_final_county_share_points": 47.53961797024856, "current_county_share_points": 47.6280834914611, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.584500775409346, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.584500775409346, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.0006677277135, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 48.584500775409346, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 6912.333437619776, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.584500775409346, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.584500775409346, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.0006677277135, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 48.584500775409346, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 49.21276172169905, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 49.21276172169905, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.24541458535521, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.07865391656842785, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.999999999999999, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 49.84028563522187, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 49.84028563522187, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.48987432272509, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.10597932088248406, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -1.1835067453066017, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.0002739476500366905, "criticality_score": 0.00023147113535522865, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 8130.095227176958, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 15127.207079332968, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 18784.721430407535, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Mallory McMorrow": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 7.652264890143298, "expected_final_county_share_points": 8.656830157054884, "current_county_share_points": 9.297912713472485, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 41.63898097603891, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 41.63898097603891, "required_final_county_share_points": 21.89677768635491, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 41.63898097603891, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 165295.07413694586, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 41.63898097603891, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 41.63898097603891, "required_final_county_share_points": 21.89677768635491, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 41.63898097603891, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 42.098105434570265, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 42.098105434570265, "required_final_county_share_points": 22.075635323703878, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.159018308558073, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999906, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 42.54943734201543, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 42.54943734201543, "required_final_county_share_points": 22.25145727595636, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.213613509684069, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.999999999999993, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -33.98671608589561, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "WELL BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.0002739476500366905, "criticality_score": 8.060433062857109e-06, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 8090.346498036999, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 15087.458350193008, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 18744.972701267576, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } } } }, { "cid": "26013", "county": "26013", "fips": null, "reporting": 0.0, "current_votes": 0, "current_candidate_votes": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 0, "Haley Stevens": 0, "Mallory McMorrow": 0 }, "current_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": null, "Haley Stevens": null, "Mallory McMorrow": null }, "estimated_remaining_votes": 336.3151388567894, "estimated_final_votes": 336.3151388567894, "turnout_disagreement_votes": 0.0, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 46.650172572260715, "Haley Stevens": 47.10924830144807, "Mallory McMorrow": 6.240579126291228 }, "remaining_sources": [ { "model": "market", "remaining_votes": 336.3151388567894, "weight": 0.1780093144963334 } ], "share_sources": [ { "model": "v0", "weight": 0.03630604611298715, "source": "statewide raw" }, { "model": "v3", "weight": 0.06301781787712588, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "market", "weight": 0.18729675699179427, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "histgeo", "weight": 0.02760802595386354, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "latent", "weight": 0.03563066882913146, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "batchbias", "weight": 0.020512372723621893, "source": "statewide fallback" } ], "candidate_benchmarks": { "Abdul El-Sayed": { "opponent": "Haley Stevens", "expected_remaining_share_points": 46.650172572260715, "expected_final_county_share_points": 46.650172572260715, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 45.44708452518822, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 45.44708452518822, "required_final_county_share_points": 45.44708452518822, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 45.44708452518822, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": -6818.28227101741, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": false }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 45.44708452518822, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 45.44708452518822, "required_final_county_share_points": 45.44708452518822, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 45.44708452518822, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 46.08665097214028, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 46.08665097214028, "required_final_county_share_points": 46.08665097214028, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.024044322225107804, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999973, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 46.7265780774185, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 46.7265780774185, "required_final_county_share_points": 46.7265780774185, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.003259695682198218, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.9999999999999996, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": 1.203088047072498, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "ABOVE", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.0002739476500366905, "criticality_score": 0.00022770374180284948, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -8036.044060574594, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -1038.9322084185835, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 2618.582142655982, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Haley Stevens": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 47.10924830144807, "expected_final_county_share_points": 47.109248301448076, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.31233634852057, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.31233634852057, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.31233634852057, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 48.31233634852057, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 6912.041691891119, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.31233634852057, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.31233634852057, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.31233634852057, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 48.31233634852057, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.95153610443062, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.95153610443062, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.95153610443062, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.07865391656842785, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.999999999999999, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 49.59036313950515, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 49.59036313950515, "required_final_county_share_points": 49.59036313950515, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.10597932088248406, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -1.203088047072498, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.0002739476500366905, "criticality_score": 0.00022770374180284948, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 8129.8034814483035, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 15126.915333604313, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 18784.42968467888, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Mallory McMorrow": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 6.240579126291228, "expected_final_county_share_points": 6.240579126291228, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 39.61884293840008, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 39.61884293840008, "required_final_county_share_points": 39.61884293840008, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 39.61884293840008, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 165293.662451182, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 39.61884293840008, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 39.61884293840008, "required_final_county_share_points": 39.61884293840008, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 39.61884293840008, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 40.14611042620819, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 40.14611042620819, "required_final_county_share_points": 40.14611042620818, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.159018308558073, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999906, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 40.66675409795603, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 40.66675409795603, "required_final_county_share_points": 40.66675409795603, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.213613509684069, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.999999999999993, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -33.37826381210885, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "WELL BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.0002739476500366905, "criticality_score": 8.207366673676681e-06, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 8088.934812273146, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 15086.046664429157, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 18743.56101550372, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } } } }, { "cid": "26039", "county": "26039", "fips": null, "reporting": 0.0, "current_votes": 0, "current_candidate_votes": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 0, "Haley Stevens": 0, "Mallory McMorrow": 0 }, "current_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": null, "Haley Stevens": null, "Mallory McMorrow": null }, "estimated_remaining_votes": 288.24888430558144, "estimated_final_votes": 288.24888430558144, "turnout_disagreement_votes": 0.0, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 45.054644259731226, "Haley Stevens": 49.856409673163114, "Mallory McMorrow": 5.0889460671056606 }, "remaining_sources": [ { "model": "market", "remaining_votes": 288.24888430558144, "weight": 0.1780093144963334 } ], "share_sources": [ { "model": "v0", "weight": 0.03630604611298715, "source": "statewide raw" }, { "model": "v3", "weight": 0.06301781787712588, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "market", "weight": 0.18729675699179427, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "histgeo", "weight": 0.02760802595386354, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "latent", "weight": 0.03563066882913146, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "batchbias", "weight": 0.020512372723621893, "source": "statewide fallback" } ], "candidate_benchmarks": { "Abdul El-Sayed": { "opponent": "Haley Stevens", "expected_remaining_share_points": 45.054644259731226, "expected_final_county_share_points": 45.05464425973122, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 43.84128990411485, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 43.84128990411485, "required_final_county_share_points": 43.84128990411485, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 43.84128990411485, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": -7964.6232199596325, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": false }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 43.84128990411485, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 43.84128990411485, "required_final_county_share_points": 43.84128990411485, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 43.84128990411485, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 44.485959841390354, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 44.485959841390354, "required_final_county_share_points": 44.485959841390354, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.024044322225107804, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999973, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 45.13179787023734, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 45.13179787023734, "required_final_county_share_points": 45.13179787023735, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.003259695682198218, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.9999999999999996, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": 1.2133543556163744, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "ABOVE", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.00023479497458732312, "criticality_score": 0.0001935089889449889, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -9385.449969509973, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -1221.5514350074086, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 3045.862989911232, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Haley Stevens": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 49.856409673163114, "expected_final_county_share_points": 49.856409673163114, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 51.06976402877949, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 51.06976402877949, "required_final_county_share_points": 51.06976402877949, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 51.06976402877949, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 8059.534273892528, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 51.06976402877949, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 51.06976402877949, "required_final_county_share_points": 51.06976402877949, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 51.06976402877949, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 51.713262664433465, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 51.713262664433465, "required_final_county_share_points": 51.713262664433465, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.07865391656842785, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.999999999999999, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 52.355586811943496, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 52.355586811943496, "required_final_county_share_points": 52.355586811943496, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.10597932088248406, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -1.2133543556163744, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.00023479497458732312, "criticality_score": 0.0001935089889449889, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 9480.361023442867, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 17644.259557945432, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 21911.673982864075, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Mallory McMorrow": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 5.0889460671056606, "expected_final_county_share_points": 5.08894606710566, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 35.90023644549594, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 35.90023644549594, "required_final_county_share_points": 35.90023644549594, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 35.90023644549594, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 192854.62025335888, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 35.90023644549594, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 35.90023644549594, "required_final_county_share_points": 35.90023644549594, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 35.90023644549594, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 36.44202928475702, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 36.44202928475702, "required_final_county_share_points": 36.44202928475702, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.159018308558073, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999906, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 36.97889009581678, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 36.97889009581678, "required_final_county_share_points": 36.97889009581678, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.213613509684069, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.999999999999993, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -30.811290378390282, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "WELL BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.00023479497458732312, "criticality_score": 7.62042003771443e-06, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 9435.59355983681, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 17599.492094339374, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 21866.906519258016, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } } } }, { "cid": "fips:26039", "county": "Crawford", "fips": "26039", "reporting": 81.36, "current_votes": 1135, "current_candidate_votes": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 457, "Haley Stevens": 603, "Mallory McMorrow": 75 }, "current_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 40.264317180616736, "Haley Stevens": 53.12775330396475, "Mallory McMorrow": 6.607929515418502 }, "estimated_remaining_votes": 288.2488843055814, "estimated_final_votes": 1423.2488843055814, "turnout_disagreement_votes": 5.684341886080802e-14, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 42.80005387347693, "Haley Stevens": 51.38073778693716, "Mallory McMorrow": 5.81920833958592 }, "remaining_sources": [ { "model": "v3", "remaining_votes": 288.24888430558144, "weight": 0.1342208488636769 }, { "model": "histgeo", "remaining_votes": 288.24888430558144, "weight": 0.05994207394479305 }, { "model": "latent", "remaining_votes": 288.24888430558144, "weight": 0.07672787409296966 }, { "model": "batchbias", "remaining_votes": 288.24888430558144, "weight": 0.045123489075924846 } ], "share_sources": [ { "model": "v0", "weight": 0.03630604611298715, "source": "statewide raw" }, { "model": "v1", "weight": 0.14599140026529184, "source": "county live" }, { "model": "v3", "weight": 0.15004242351696637, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "market", "weight": 0.0786646379365536, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "histgeo", "weight": 0.06573339512824654, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "latent", "weight": 0.08483492578364633, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "batchbias", "weight": 0.04883898267529022, "source": "county remaining" } ], "candidate_benchmarks": { "Abdul El-Sayed": { "opponent": "Haley Stevens", "expected_remaining_share_points": 42.80005387347693, "expected_final_county_share_points": 40.7778768824157, "current_county_share_points": 40.264317180616736, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 41.60420753215299, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 41.60420753215299, "required_final_county_share_points": 40.53568356156464, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 41.60420753215299, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": -7966.877810345888, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": false }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 41.60420753215299, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 41.60420753215299, "required_final_county_share_points": 40.53568356156464, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 41.60420753215299, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 42.239266117793015, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 42.239266117793015, "required_final_county_share_points": 40.66430121291009, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.024044322225107804, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999973, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 42.87617820330037, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 42.87617820330037, "required_final_county_share_points": 40.79329425135382, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.003259695682198218, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.9999999999999996, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": 1.1958463413239357, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "ABOVE", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.00023479497458732306, "criticality_score": 0.00019634209385745893, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -9387.70455989623, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -1223.8060253936633, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 3043.6083995249787, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Haley Stevens": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 51.38073778693716, "expected_final_county_share_points": 52.773932353039896, "current_county_share_points": 53.12775330396475, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 52.57658412826108, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 52.57658412826108, "required_final_county_share_points": 53.016125673890954, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 52.57658412826108, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 8061.058602006303, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 52.57658412826108, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 52.57658412826108, "required_final_county_share_points": 53.016125673890954, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 52.57658412826108, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 53.20979102242557, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 53.20979102242557, "required_final_county_share_points": 53.14436830438953, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.07865391656842785, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.999999999999999, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 53.8411480484796, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 53.8411480484796, "required_final_county_share_points": 53.27223628332518, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.10597932088248406, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -1.1958463413239215, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.00023479497458732306, "criticality_score": 0.00019634209385746126, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 9481.885351556646, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 17645.783886059213, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 21913.198310977856, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Mallory McMorrow": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 5.81920833958592, "expected_final_county_share_points": 6.448190764544403, "current_county_share_points": 6.607929515418502, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 36.566907984579835, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 36.566907984579835, "required_final_county_share_points": 12.67548538277062, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 36.566907984579835, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 192855.35051563143, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 36.566907984579835, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 36.566907984579835, "required_final_county_share_points": 12.67548538277062, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 36.566907984579835, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 37.04758941859295, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 37.04758941859295, "required_final_county_share_points": 12.772837215319777, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.159018308558073, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999906, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 37.52208032927257, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 37.52208032927257, "required_final_county_share_points": 12.868935288625677, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.213613509684069, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.999999999999993, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -30.747699644993915, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "WELL BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.00023479497458732306, "criticality_score": 7.636180179272384e-06, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 9436.323822109294, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 17600.22235661186, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 21867.636781530502, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } } } }, { "cid": "fips:26063", "county": "Huron", "fips": "26063", "reporting": 91.36, "current_votes": 2200, "current_candidate_votes": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 760, "Haley Stevens": 1314, "Mallory McMorrow": 126 }, "current_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 34.54545454545455, "Haley Stevens": 59.72727272727273, "Mallory McMorrow": 5.7272727272727275 }, "estimated_remaining_votes": 251.93734469721267, "estimated_final_votes": 2451.9373446972127, "turnout_disagreement_votes": 0.0, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 38.64033651005351, "Haley Stevens": 56.173005201419045, "Mallory McMorrow": 5.186658288527445 }, "remaining_sources": [ { "model": "v3", "remaining_votes": 251.93734469721267, "weight": 0.1342208488636769 }, { "model": "histgeo", "remaining_votes": 251.93734469721267, "weight": 0.05994207394479305 }, { "model": "latent", "remaining_votes": 251.93734469721267, "weight": 0.07672787409296966 }, { "model": "batchbias", "remaining_votes": 251.93734469721267, "weight": 0.045123489075924846 } ], "share_sources": [ { "model": "v0", "weight": 0.03630604611298715, "source": "statewide raw" }, { "model": "v1", "weight": 0.14599140026529184, "source": "county live" }, { "model": "v3", "weight": 0.15004242351696637, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "market", "weight": 0.0786646379365536, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "histgeo", "weight": 0.06573339512824654, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "latent", "weight": 0.08483492578364633, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "batchbias", "weight": 0.04883898267529022, "source": "county remaining" } ], "candidate_benchmarks": { "Abdul El-Sayed": { "opponent": "Haley Stevens", "expected_remaining_share_points": 38.64033651005351, "expected_final_county_share_points": 34.966204974188265, "current_county_share_points": 34.54545454545455, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 37.47070203465057, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 37.47070203465057, "required_final_county_share_points": 34.84602465855474, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 37.47070203465057, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": -9125.466361459316, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": false }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 37.47070203465057, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 37.47070203465057, "required_final_county_share_points": 34.84602465855474, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 37.47070203465057, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 38.09114178741645, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 38.09114178741645, "required_final_county_share_points": 34.90977504116321, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.024044322225107804, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999973, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 38.71498253549025, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 38.71498253549025, "required_final_county_share_points": 34.97387487712498, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.003259695682198218, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.9999999999999996, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": 1.1696344754029369, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "ABOVE", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.00020521717746899986, "criticality_score": 0.00017545411133534084, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -10751.0757995584, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -1410.5207223326024, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 3471.9529273388816, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Haley Stevens": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 56.173005201419045, "expected_final_county_share_points": 59.36207060465581, "current_county_share_points": 59.72727272727273, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 57.342639676821996, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 57.342639676821996, "required_final_county_share_points": 59.48225092028934, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 57.342639676821996, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 9220.279703170787, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 57.342639676821996, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 57.342639676821996, "required_final_county_share_points": 59.48225092028934, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 57.342639676821996, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 57.95970006739882, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 57.95970006739882, "required_final_county_share_points": 59.54565407235436, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.07865391656842785, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.999999999999999, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 58.573402549759855, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 58.573402549759855, "required_final_county_share_points": 59.608712198278546, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.10597932088248406, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -1.169634475402951, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.00020521717746899986, "criticality_score": 0.0001754541113353387, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 10845.889141269874, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 20186.444218495668, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 25068.917868167155, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Mallory McMorrow": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 5.186658288527445, "expected_final_county_share_points": 5.671724421155925, "current_county_share_points": 5.7272727272727275, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 32.85741682191905, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 32.85741682191905, "required_final_county_share_points": 8.514903691514196, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 32.85741682191905, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 220649.9755639968, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 32.85741682191905, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 32.85741682191905, "required_final_county_share_points": 8.514903691514196, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 32.85741682191905, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 33.29357348243505, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 33.29357348243505, "required_final_county_share_points": 8.559718927580507, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.159018308558073, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999906, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 33.72422195396603, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 33.72422195396603, "required_final_county_share_points": 8.60396819547068, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.213613509684069, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.999999999999993, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -27.670758533391606, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "WELL BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.00020521717746899986, "criticality_score": 7.416391466874847e-06, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 10794.902794356982, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 20135.457871582777, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 25017.931521254264, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } } } }, { "cid": "26063", "county": "26063", "fips": null, "reporting": 0.0, "current_votes": 0, "current_candidate_votes": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 0, "Haley Stevens": 0, "Mallory McMorrow": 0 }, "current_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": null, "Haley Stevens": null, "Mallory McMorrow": null }, "estimated_remaining_votes": 251.93734469721267, "estimated_final_votes": 251.93734469721267, "turnout_disagreement_votes": 0.0, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 42.41133648852992, "Haley Stevens": 52.910001196695674, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.678662314774414 }, "remaining_sources": [ { "model": "market", "remaining_votes": 251.93734469721267, "weight": 0.1780093144963334 } ], "share_sources": [ { "model": "v0", "weight": 0.03630604611298715, "source": "statewide raw" }, { "model": "v3", "weight": 0.06301781787712588, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "market", "weight": 0.18729675699179427, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "histgeo", "weight": 0.02760802595386354, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "latent", "weight": 0.03563066882913146, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "batchbias", "weight": 0.020512372723621893, "source": "statewide fallback" } ], "candidate_benchmarks": { "Abdul El-Sayed": { "opponent": "Haley Stevens", "expected_remaining_share_points": 42.41133648852992, "expected_final_county_share_points": 42.41133648852992, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 41.206269829798885, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 41.206269829798885, "required_final_county_share_points": 41.206269829798885, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 41.206269829798885, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": -9121.695361480834, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": false }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 41.206269829798885, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 41.206269829798885, "required_final_county_share_points": 41.206269829798885, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 41.206269829798885, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 41.84607868120022, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 41.84607868120022, "required_final_county_share_points": 41.84607868120022, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.024044322225107804, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999973, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 42.48808752368594, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 42.48808752368594, "required_final_county_share_points": 42.48808752368594, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.003259695682198218, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.9999999999999996, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": 1.2050666587310346, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "ABOVE", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.00020521717746899986, "criticality_score": 0.00017029529112115566, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -10747.304799579924, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -1406.7497223541259, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 3475.7239273173577, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Haley Stevens": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 52.910001196695674, "expected_final_county_share_points": 52.910001196695674, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 54.1150678554267, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 54.1150678554267, "required_final_county_share_points": 54.1150678554267, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 54.1150678554267, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 9217.016699166059, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 54.1150678554267, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 54.1150678554267, "required_final_county_share_points": 54.1150678554267, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 54.1150678554267, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 54.75268169179759, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 54.75268169179759, "required_final_county_share_points": 54.75268169179759, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.07865391656842785, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.999999999999999, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 55.388105487310035, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 55.388105487310035, "required_final_county_share_points": 55.388105487310035, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.10597932088248406, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -1.2050666587310275, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.00020521717746899986, "criticality_score": 0.00017029529112115666, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 10842.62613726515, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 20183.181214490945, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 25065.654864162432, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Mallory McMorrow": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 4.678662314774414, "expected_final_county_share_points": 4.678662314774414, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 33.48688687497584, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 33.48688687497584, "required_final_county_share_points": 33.48688687497584, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 33.48688687497584, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 220649.46756802304, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 33.48688687497584, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 33.48688687497584, "required_final_county_share_points": 33.48688687497584, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 33.48688687497584, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 34.0009717077662, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 34.0009717077662, "required_final_county_share_points": 34.0009717077662, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.159018308558073, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999906, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 34.51063677540445, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 34.51063677540445, "required_final_county_share_points": 34.51063677540445, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.213613509684069, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.999999999999993, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -28.808224560201424, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "WELL BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.00020521717746899986, "criticality_score": 7.123562128591135e-06, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 10794.39479838323, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 20134.949875609025, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 25017.423525280512, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } } } }, { "cid": "26079", "county": "26079", "fips": null, "reporting": 0.0, "current_votes": 0, "current_candidate_votes": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 0, "Haley Stevens": 0, "Mallory McMorrow": 0 }, "current_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": null, "Haley Stevens": null, "Mallory McMorrow": null }, "estimated_remaining_votes": 216.38155288811413, "estimated_final_votes": 216.38155288811413, "turnout_disagreement_votes": 0.0, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 47.96647548689527, "Haley Stevens": 47.502775719210796, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.530748793893928 }, "remaining_sources": [ { "model": "market", "remaining_votes": 216.38155288811413, "weight": 0.1780093144963334 } ], "share_sources": [ { "model": "v0", "weight": 0.03630604611298715, "source": "statewide raw" }, { "model": "v3", "weight": 0.06301781787712588, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "market", "weight": 0.18729675699179427, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "histgeo", "weight": 0.02760802595386354, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "latent", "weight": 0.03563066882913146, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "batchbias", "weight": 0.020512372723621893, "source": "statewide fallback" } ], "candidate_benchmarks": { "Abdul El-Sayed": { "opponent": "Haley Stevens", "expected_remaining_share_points": 47.96647548689527, "expected_final_county_share_points": 47.96647548689527, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 46.74114031347992, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 46.74114031347992, "required_final_county_share_points": 46.741140313479924, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 46.74114031347992, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": -10621.985177934146, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": false }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 46.74114031347992, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 46.74114031347992, "required_final_county_share_points": 46.741140313479924, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 46.74114031347992, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 47.39260980326423, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 47.39260980326423, "required_final_county_share_points": 47.392609803264236, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.024044322225107804, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999973, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.044273143240204, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.044273143240204, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.044273143240204, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.003259695682198218, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.9999999999999996, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": 1.2253351734153526, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "ABOVE", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.00017625497956019845, "criticality_score": 0.00014384225915014455, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -12514.714571373614, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -1639.3205613715727, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 4045.4405951785297, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Haley Stevens": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 47.502775719210796, "expected_final_county_share_points": 47.50277571921079, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.728110892626155, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.728110892626155, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.72811089262615, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 48.728110892626155, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 10717.454429140253, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.728110892626155, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.728110892626155, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.72811089262615, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 48.728110892626155, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 49.37938016065051, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 49.37938016065051, "required_final_county_share_points": 49.37938016065051, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.07865391656842785, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.999999999999999, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 50.030442831752964, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 50.030442831752964, "required_final_county_share_points": 50.030442831752964, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.10597932088248406, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -1.2253351734153597, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.00017625497956019845, "criticality_score": 0.0001438422591501437, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 12610.18382257972, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 23485.577832581756, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 29170.338989131862, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Mallory McMorrow": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 4.530748793893928, "expected_final_county_share_points": 4.530748793893928, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 35.60512623336344, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 35.60512623336344, "required_final_county_share_points": 35.60512623336344, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 35.60512623336344, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 256905.6459142108, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 35.60512623336344, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 35.60512623336344, "required_final_county_share_points": 35.60512623336344, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 35.60512623336344, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 36.215042364555146, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 36.215042364555146, "required_final_county_share_points": 36.215042364555146, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.159018308558073, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999906, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 36.821827322871094, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 36.821827322871094, "required_final_county_share_points": 36.821827322871094, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.213613509684069, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.999999999999993, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -31.074377439469515, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "WELL BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.00017625497956019845, "criticality_score": 5.672035744031543e-06, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 12567.211795654403, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 23442.60580565644, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 29127.366962206546, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } } } }, { "cid": "fips:26079", "county": "Kalkaska", "fips": "26079", "reporting": 89.08, "current_votes": 1468, "current_candidate_votes": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 685, "Haley Stevens": 704, "Mallory McMorrow": 79 }, "current_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 46.66212534059945, "Haley Stevens": 47.956403269754766, "Mallory McMorrow": 5.381471389645776 }, "estimated_remaining_votes": 216.3815528881141, "estimated_final_votes": 1684.3815528881141, "turnout_disagreement_votes": 2.842170943040401e-14, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 47.42419666440505, "Haley Stevens": 47.64061478778091, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.935188547814027 }, "remaining_sources": [ { "model": "v3", "remaining_votes": 216.38155288811413, "weight": 0.1342208488636769 }, { "model": "histgeo", "remaining_votes": 216.38155288811413, "weight": 0.05994207394479305 }, { "model": "latent", "remaining_votes": 216.38155288811413, "weight": 0.07672787409296966 }, { "model": "batchbias", "remaining_votes": 216.38155288811413, "weight": 0.045123489075924846 } ], "share_sources": [ { "model": "v0", "weight": 0.03630604611298715, "source": "statewide raw" }, { "model": "v1", "weight": 0.14599140026529184, "source": "county live" }, { "model": "v3", "weight": 0.15004242351696637, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "market", "weight": 0.0786646379365536, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "histgeo", "weight": 0.06573339512824654, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "latent", "weight": 0.08483492578364633, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "batchbias", "weight": 0.04883898267529022, "source": "county remaining" } ], "candidate_benchmarks": { "Abdul El-Sayed": { "opponent": "Haley Stevens", "expected_remaining_share_points": 47.42419666440505, "expected_final_county_share_points": 46.76002369158401, "current_county_share_points": 46.66212534059945, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 46.20425335822513, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 46.20425335822513, "required_final_county_share_points": 46.60330550230318, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 46.20425335822513, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": -10622.527456756627, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": false }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 46.20425335822513, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 46.20425335822513, "required_final_county_share_points": 46.60330550230318, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 46.20425335822513, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 46.85280055284729, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 46.85280055284729, "required_final_county_share_points": 46.68662014609807, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.024044322225107804, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999973, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 47.50166707060967, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 47.50166707060967, "required_final_county_share_points": 46.76997581126182, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.003259695682198218, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.9999999999999996, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": 1.2199433061799212, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "ABOVE", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.00017625497956019845, "criticality_score": 0.00014447800866428443, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -12515.256850196103, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -1639.8628401940628, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 4044.8983163560392, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Haley Stevens": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 47.64061478778091, "expected_final_county_share_points": 47.9158359754879, "current_county_share_points": 47.956403269754766, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.86055809396084, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.86055809396084, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.072554164768746, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 48.86055809396084, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 10717.592268208813, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.86055809396084, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.86055809396084, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.072554164768746, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 48.86055809396084, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 49.508779773898276, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 49.508779773898276, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.15582699180732, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.07865391656842785, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.999999999999999, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 50.156669748850845, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 50.156669748850845, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.239057206861915, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.10597932088248406, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -1.2199433061799283, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.00017625497956019845, "criticality_score": 0.0001444780086642836, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 12610.32166164829, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 23485.715671650327, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 29170.476828200433, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Mallory McMorrow": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 4.935188547814027, "expected_final_county_share_points": 5.324140332928078, "current_county_share_points": 5.381471389645776, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 36.59895272971209, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 36.59895272971209, "required_final_county_share_points": 9.391778364355307, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 36.59895272971209, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 256906.0503539647, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 36.59895272971209, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 36.59895272971209, "required_final_county_share_points": 9.391778364355307, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 36.59895272971209, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 37.184784240853055, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 37.184784240853055, "required_final_county_share_points": 9.467036331823616, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.159018308558073, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999906, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 37.766325702218, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 37.766325702218, "required_final_county_share_points": 9.541743184474196, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.213613509684069, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.999999999999993, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -31.66376418189806, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "WELL BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.00017625497956019845, "criticality_score": 5.566456929999565e-06, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 12567.616235408323, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 23443.010245410358, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 29127.771401960465, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } } } }, { "cid": "26029", "county": "26029", "fips": null, "reporting": 0.0, "current_votes": 0, "current_candidate_votes": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 0, "Haley Stevens": 0, "Mallory McMorrow": 0 }, "current_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": null, "Haley Stevens": null, "Mallory McMorrow": null }, "estimated_remaining_votes": 188.7267376707814, "estimated_final_votes": 188.7267376707814, "turnout_disagreement_votes": 0.0, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 49.2334725243315, "Haley Stevens": 46.49050030554237, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.2760271701261265 }, "remaining_sources": [ { "model": "market", "remaining_votes": 188.7267376707814, "weight": 0.1780093144963334 } ], "share_sources": [ { "model": "v0", "weight": 0.03630604611298715, "source": "statewide raw" }, { "model": "v3", "weight": 0.06301781787712588, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "market", "weight": 0.18729675699179427, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "histgeo", "weight": 0.02760802595386354, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "latent", "weight": 0.03563066882913146, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "batchbias", "weight": 0.020512372723621893, "source": "statewide fallback" } ], "candidate_benchmarks": { "Abdul El-Sayed": { "opponent": "Haley Stevens", "expected_remaining_share_points": 49.2334725243315, "expected_final_county_share_points": 49.233472524331496, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.00509747485899, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.00509747485899, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.00509747485899, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 48.00509747485899, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": -12184.225000306502, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": false }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.00509747485899, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.00509747485899, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.00509747485899, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 48.00509747485899, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.658370069574666, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.658370069574666, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.658370069574666, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.024044322225107804, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999973, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 49.31141251753594, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 49.31141251753594, "required_final_county_share_points": 49.31141251753594, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.003259695682198218, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.9999999999999996, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": 1.2283750494725112, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "ABOVE", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.00015372857273016508, "criticality_score": 0.0001251479121105392, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -14354.30291509483, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -1885.2978700366975, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 4632.472012671251, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Haley Stevens": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 46.49050030554237, "expected_final_county_share_points": 46.49050030554237, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 47.71887535501487, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 47.71887535501487, "required_final_county_share_points": 47.71887535501487, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 47.71887535501487, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 12279.948973136376, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 47.71887535501487, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 47.71887535501487, "required_final_county_share_points": 47.71887535501487, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 47.71887535501487, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.372371735927025, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.372371735927025, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.372371735927025, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.07865391656842785, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.999999999999999, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 49.02608552214882, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 49.02608552214882, "required_final_county_share_points": 49.02608552214882, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.10597932088248406, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -1.228375049472504, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.00015372857273016508, "criticality_score": 0.00012514791211053994, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 14450.026887924703, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 26919.03193298283, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 33436.80181569078, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Mallory McMorrow": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 4.2760271701261265, "expected_final_county_share_points": 4.2760271701261265, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 35.29723544216141, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 35.29723544216141, "required_final_county_share_points": 35.29723544216141, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 35.29723544216141, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 294550.04587537836, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 35.29723544216141, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 35.29723544216141, "required_final_county_share_points": 35.29723544216141, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 35.29723544216141, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 35.937432942865264, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 35.937432942865264, "required_final_county_share_points": 35.937432942865264, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.159018308558073, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999906, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 36.575603349208116, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 36.575603349208116, "required_final_county_share_points": 36.575603349208116, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.213613509684069, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.999999999999993, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -31.02120827203528, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "WELL BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.00015372857273016508, "criticality_score": 4.955595906583269e-06, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 14407.812414789287, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 26876.817459847414, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 33394.587342555365, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } } } }, { "cid": "fips:26029", "county": "Charlevoix", "fips": "26029", "reporting": 96.98, "current_votes": 3339, "current_candidate_votes": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 1651, "Haley Stevens": 1527, "Mallory McMorrow": 161 }, "current_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 49.44594189877209, "Haley Stevens": 45.73225516621743, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.821802935010482 }, "estimated_remaining_votes": 160.4771363120394, "estimated_final_votes": 3499.4771363120394, "turnout_disagreement_votes": 2.842170943040401e-14, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 49.43924981923985, "Haley Stevens": 46.031011714043466, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.5297384667166725 }, "remaining_sources": [ { "model": "v3", "remaining_votes": 160.47713631203942, "weight": 0.1342208488636769 }, { "model": "histgeo", "remaining_votes": 160.47713631203942, "weight": 0.05994207394479305 }, { "model": "latent", "remaining_votes": 160.47713631203942, "weight": 0.07672787409296966 }, { "model": "batchbias", "remaining_votes": 160.47713631203942, "weight": 0.045123489075924846 } ], "share_sources": [ { "model": "v0", "weight": 0.03630604611298715, "source": "statewide raw" }, { "model": "v1", "weight": 0.14599140026529184, "source": "county live" }, { "model": "v3", "weight": 0.15004242351696637, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "market", "weight": 0.0786646379365536, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "histgeo", "weight": 0.06573339512824654, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "latent", "weight": 0.08483492578364633, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "batchbias", "weight": 0.04883898267529022, "source": "county remaining" } ], "candidate_benchmarks": { "Abdul El-Sayed": { "opponent": "Haley Stevens", "expected_remaining_share_points": 49.43924981923985, "expected_final_county_share_points": 49.44563501699591, "current_county_share_points": 49.44594189877209, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.21446474971571, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.21446474971571, "required_final_county_share_points": 49.389469483432194, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 48.21446474971571, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": -14337.536746057434, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": false }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.21446474971571, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.21446474971571, "required_final_county_share_points": 49.389469483432194, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 48.21446474971571, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.865883311340504, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.865883311340504, "required_final_county_share_points": 49.41934188471904, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.024044322225107804, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999973, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 49.516947075800104, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 49.516947075800104, "required_final_county_share_points": 49.44919801590872, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.003259695682198218, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.9999999999999996, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": 1.2247850695241382, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "ABOVE", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.00013071767903978, "criticality_score": 0.00010672703504670196, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -16889.62444379068, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -2225.6374221217798, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 5439.4884339411155, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Haley Stevens": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 46.031011714043466, "expected_final_county_share_points": 45.74595538295899, "current_county_share_points": 45.73225516621743, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 47.255796783567604, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 47.255796783567604, "required_final_county_share_points": 45.802120916522696, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 47.255796783567604, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 14433.00700759072, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 47.255796783567604, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 47.255796783567604, "required_final_county_share_points": 45.802120916522696, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 47.255796783567604, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 47.90756396674398, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 47.90756396674398, "required_final_county_share_points": 45.83200930470875, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.07865391656842785, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.999999999999999, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.55967357082501, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.55967357082501, "required_final_county_share_points": 45.861913395448084, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.10597932088248406, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -1.2247850695241382, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.00013071767903978, "criticality_score": 0.00010672703504670196, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 16985.09470532396, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 31649.081726992852, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 39314.20758305576, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Mallory McMorrow": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 4.5297384667166725, "expected_final_county_share_points": 4.80840960004511, "current_county_share_points": 4.821802935010482, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 36.24257063965469, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 36.24257063965469, "required_final_county_share_points": 6.262679564734948, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 36.24257063965469, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 346400.68009157316, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 36.24257063965469, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 36.24257063965469, "required_final_county_share_points": 6.262679564734948, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 36.24257063965469, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 36.87652881205225, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 36.87652881205225, "required_final_county_share_points": 6.291751276903694, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.159018308558073, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999906, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 37.507680426114185, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 37.507680426114185, "required_final_county_share_points": 6.320694287433009, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.213613509684069, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.999999999999993, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -31.712832172938015, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "WELL BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.00013071767903978, "criticality_score": 4.121917535682205e-06, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 16943.593432076636, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 31607.580453745526, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 39272.706309808425, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } } } }, { "cid": "26027", "county": "26027", "fips": null, "reporting": 0.0, "current_votes": 0, "current_candidate_votes": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 0, "Haley Stevens": 0, "Mallory McMorrow": 0 }, "current_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": null, "Haley Stevens": null, "Mallory McMorrow": null }, "estimated_remaining_votes": 98.63631352640779, "estimated_final_votes": 98.63631352640779, "turnout_disagreement_votes": 1.4210854715202004e-14, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 47.325817752519605, "Haley Stevens": 46.180187564996885, "Mallory McMorrow": 6.493994682483506 }, "remaining_sources": [ { "model": "market", "remaining_votes": 98.63631352640778, "weight": 0.1780093144963334 } ], "share_sources": [ { "model": "v0", "weight": 0.03630604611298715, "source": "statewide raw" }, { "model": "v3", "weight": 0.06301781787712588, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "market", "weight": 0.18729675699179427, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "histgeo", "weight": 0.02760802595386354, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "latent", "weight": 0.03563066882913146, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "batchbias", "weight": 0.020512372723621893, "source": "statewide fallback" } ], "candidate_benchmarks": { "Abdul El-Sayed": { "opponent": "Haley Stevens", "expected_remaining_share_points": 47.325817752519605, "expected_final_county_share_points": 47.325817752519605, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 46.12560458796797, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 46.12560458796797, "required_final_county_share_points": 46.12560458796797, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 46.12560458796797, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": -23359.679426722807, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": false }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 46.12560458796797, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 46.12560458796797, "required_final_county_share_points": 46.12560458796797, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 46.12560458796797, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 46.7637742862269, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 46.7637742862269, "required_final_county_share_points": 46.7637742862269, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.024044322225107804, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999973, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 47.40200500570729, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 47.40200500570729, "required_final_county_share_points": 47.40200500570729, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.003259695682198218, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.9999999999999996, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": 1.2002131645516343, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "ABOVE", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 8.034484082605593e-05, "criticality_score": 6.694214261186719e-05, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -27511.81884381251, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -3654.1283034588605, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 8816.70929047672, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Haley Stevens": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 46.180187564996885, "expected_final_county_share_points": 46.180187564996885, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 47.38040072954852, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 47.38040072954852, "required_final_county_share_points": 47.38040072954852, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 47.38040072954852, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 23453.18543204032, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 47.38040072954852, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 47.38040072954852, "required_final_county_share_points": 47.38040072954852, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 47.38040072954852, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.01850308721042, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.01850308721042, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.01850308721042, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.07865391656842785, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.999999999999999, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.65653177631791, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.65653177631791, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.65653177631791, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.10597932088248406, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -1.2002131645516343, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 8.034484082605593e-05, "criticality_score": 6.694214261186719e-05, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 27605.32484913003, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 51463.01538948367, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 63933.85298341925, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Mallory McMorrow": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 6.493994682483506, "expected_final_county_share_points": 6.493994682483506, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 40.5703515304971, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 40.5703515304971, "required_final_county_share_points": 40.5703515304971, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 40.5703515304971, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 563578.4711985796, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 40.5703515304971, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 40.5703515304971, "required_final_county_share_points": 40.5703515304971, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 40.5703515304971, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 41.09993081549383, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 41.09993081549383, "required_final_county_share_points": 41.09993081549383, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.159018308558073, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999906, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 41.622595621184715, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 41.622595621184715, "required_final_county_share_points": 41.622595621184715, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.213613509684069, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.999999999999993, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -34.076356848013596, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "WELL BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 8.034484082605593e-05, "criticality_score": 2.3577884568003476e-06, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 27565.638656247516, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 51423.32919660115, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 63894.166790536736, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } } } }, { "cid": "fips:26097", "county": "Mackinac", "fips": "26097", "reporting": 93.9, "current_votes": 1446, "current_candidate_votes": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 654, "Haley Stevens": 706, "Mallory McMorrow": 86 }, "current_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 45.22821576763486, "Haley Stevens": 48.82434301521438, "Mallory McMorrow": 5.94744121715076 }, "estimated_remaining_votes": 87.37128851475677, "estimated_final_votes": 1533.3712885147568, "turnout_disagreement_votes": 0.0, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 46.381354188279545, "Haley Stevens": 48.27358844789876, "Mallory McMorrow": 5.34505736382171 }, "remaining_sources": [ { "model": "v3", "remaining_votes": 87.37128851475677, "weight": 0.1342208488636769 }, { "model": "histgeo", "remaining_votes": 87.37128851475677, "weight": 0.05994207394479305 }, { "model": "latent", "remaining_votes": 87.37128851475677, "weight": 0.07672787409296966 }, { "model": "batchbias", "remaining_votes": 87.37128851475677, "weight": 0.045123489075924846 } ], "share_sources": [ { "model": "v0", "weight": 0.03630604611298715, "source": "statewide raw" }, { "model": "v1", "weight": 0.14599140026529184, "source": "county live" }, { "model": "v3", "weight": 0.15004242351696637, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "market", "weight": 0.0786646379365536, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "histgeo", "weight": 0.06573339512824654, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "latent", "weight": 0.08483492578364633, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "batchbias", "weight": 0.04883898267529022, "source": "county remaining" } ], "candidate_benchmarks": { "Abdul El-Sayed": { "opponent": "Haley Stevens", "expected_remaining_share_points": 46.381354188279545, "expected_final_county_share_points": 45.29392143879372, "current_county_share_points": 45.22821576763486, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 45.16770155145009, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 45.16770155145009, "required_final_county_share_points": 45.224767675785785, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 45.16770155145009, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": -26378.55465460591, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": false }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 45.16770155145009, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 45.16770155145009, "required_final_county_share_points": 45.224767675785785, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 45.16770155145009, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 45.81276712987843, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 45.81276712987843, "required_final_county_share_points": 45.26152342515057, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.024044322225107804, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999973, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 46.45846238284563, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 46.45846238284563, "required_final_county_share_points": 45.29831505328536, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.003259695682198218, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.9999999999999996, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": 1.2136526368294582, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "ABOVE", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 7.116884256431714e-05, "criticality_score": 5.864020758875321e-05, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -31066.041039566815, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -4132.311617035968, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 9946.42600676119, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Haley Stevens": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 48.27358844789876, "expected_final_county_share_points": 48.792961094500086, "current_county_share_points": 48.82434301521438, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 49.487241084728225, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 49.487241084728225, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.86211485750802, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 49.487241084728225, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 26473.20959724209, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 49.487241084728225, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 49.487241084728225, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.86211485750802, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 49.487241084728225, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 50.131671521172386, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 50.131671521172386, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.8988344165685, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.07865391656842785, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.999999999999999, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 50.77546136018641, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 50.77546136018641, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.93551747447409, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.10597932088248406, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -1.2136526368294653, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 7.116884256431714e-05, "criticality_score": 5.864020758875286e-05, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 31160.695982202993, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 58094.42540473383, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 72173.16302853101, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Mallory McMorrow": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 5.34505736382171, "expected_final_county_share_points": 5.913117466706195, "current_county_share_points": 5.94744121715076, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 37.243766469578084, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 37.243766469578084, "required_final_county_share_points": 7.730701594831414, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 37.243766469578084, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 636240.23621148, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 37.243766469578084, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 37.243766469578084, "required_final_county_share_points": 7.730701594831414, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 37.243766469578084, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 37.797670391809646, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 37.797670391809646, "required_final_county_share_points": 7.762262965362635, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.159018308558073, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999906, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 38.34629608980335, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 38.34629608980335, "required_final_county_share_points": 7.793523583391063, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.213613509684069, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.999999999999993, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -31.898709105756375, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "WELL BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 7.116884256431714e-05, "criticality_score": 2.2310884847523235e-06, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 31117.767451118918, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 58051.496873649754, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 72130.23449744693, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } } } }, { "cid": "26097", "county": "26097", "fips": null, "reporting": 0.0, "current_votes": 0, "current_candidate_votes": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 0, "Haley Stevens": 0, "Mallory McMorrow": 0 }, "current_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": null, "Haley Stevens": null, "Mallory McMorrow": null }, "estimated_remaining_votes": 85.61068472148054, "estimated_final_votes": 85.61068472148054, "turnout_disagreement_votes": 0.0, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 47.313860940306704, "Haley Stevens": 47.89780070134983, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.78833835834347 }, "remaining_sources": [ { "model": "market", "remaining_votes": 85.61068472148054, "weight": 0.1780093144963334 } ], "share_sources": [ { "model": "v0", "weight": 0.03630604611298715, "source": "statewide raw" }, { "model": "v3", "weight": 0.06301781787712588, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "market", "weight": 0.18729675699179427, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "histgeo", "weight": 0.02760802595386354, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "latent", "weight": 0.03563066882913146, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "batchbias", "weight": 0.020512372723621893, "source": "statewide fallback" } ], "candidate_benchmarks": { "Abdul El-Sayed": { "opponent": "Haley Stevens", "expected_remaining_share_points": 47.313860940306704, "expected_final_county_share_points": 47.31386094030671, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 46.09219368951438, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 46.09219368951438, "required_final_county_share_points": 46.09219368951438, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 46.09219368951438, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": -26921.05714928536, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": false }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 46.09219368951438, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 46.09219368951438, "required_final_county_share_points": 46.09219368951438, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 46.09219368951438, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 46.74162726088431, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 46.74162726088431, "required_final_county_share_points": 46.741627260884314, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.024044322225107804, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999973, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 47.39144898923758, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 47.39144898923758, "required_final_county_share_points": 47.39144898923758, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.003259695682198218, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.9999999999999996, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": 1.221667250792322, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "ABOVE", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 6.973473147002268e-05, "criticality_score": 5.708160828965142e-05, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -31704.94279021693, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -4217.314910470668, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 10150.955251766505, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Haley Stevens": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 47.89780070134983, "expected_final_county_share_points": 47.89780070134984, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 49.119467952142145, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 49.119467952142145, "required_final_county_share_points": 49.119467952142145, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 49.119467952142145, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 27016.268810927017, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 49.119467952142145, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 49.119467952142145, "required_final_county_share_points": 49.119467952142145, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 49.119467952142145, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 49.7685072792353, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 49.7685072792353, "required_final_county_share_points": 49.76850727923531, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.07865391656842785, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.999999999999999, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 50.417146278526594, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 50.417146278526594, "required_final_county_share_points": 50.417146278526594, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.10597932088248406, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -1.221667250792315, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 6.973473147002268e-05, "criticality_score": 5.7081608289651754e-05, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 31800.154451858587, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 59287.782331604845, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 73656.05249384203, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Mallory McMorrow": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 4.78833835834347, "expected_final_county_share_points": 4.78833835834347, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 36.11188614129752, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 36.11188614129752, "required_final_county_share_points": 36.11188614129752, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 36.11188614129752, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 649323.9991241287, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 36.11188614129752, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 36.11188614129752, "required_final_county_share_points": 36.11188614129752, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 36.11188614129752, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 36.70143227595383, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 36.70143227595383, "required_final_county_share_points": 36.70143227595383, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.159018308558073, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999906, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 37.28702714416342, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 37.28702714416342, "required_final_county_share_points": 37.28702714416342, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.213613509684069, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.999999999999993, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -31.323547782954048, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "WELL BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 6.973473147002268e-05, "criticality_score": 2.2262718116487304e-06, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 31757.04498951558, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 59244.67286926184, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 73612.94303149902, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } } } }, { "cid": "26107", "county": "26107", "fips": null, "reporting": 0.0, "current_votes": 0, "current_candidate_votes": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 0, "Haley Stevens": 0, "Mallory McMorrow": 0 }, "current_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": null, "Haley Stevens": null, "Mallory McMorrow": null }, "estimated_remaining_votes": 78.31944933675004, "estimated_final_votes": 78.31944933675004, "turnout_disagreement_votes": 0.0, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 47.0912695449292, "Haley Stevens": 48.78440505337972, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.12432540169107 }, "remaining_sources": [ { "model": "market", "remaining_votes": 78.31944933675004, "weight": 0.1780093144963334 } ], "share_sources": [ { "model": "v0", "weight": 0.03630604611298715, "source": "statewide raw" }, { "model": "v3", "weight": 0.06301781787712588, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "market", "weight": 0.18729675699179427, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "histgeo", "weight": 0.02760802595386354, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "latent", "weight": 0.03563066882913146, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "batchbias", "weight": 0.020512372723621893, "source": "statewide fallback" } ], "candidate_benchmarks": { "Abdul El-Sayed": { "opponent": "Haley Stevens", "expected_remaining_share_points": 47.0912695449292, "expected_final_county_share_points": 47.091269544929204, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 45.86178338426582, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 45.86178338426582, "required_final_county_share_points": 45.86178338426582, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 45.86178338426582, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": -29431.929938600668, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": false }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 45.86178338426582, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 45.86178338426582, "required_final_county_share_points": 45.86178338426582, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 45.86178338426582, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 46.51528291014124, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 46.51528291014124, "required_final_county_share_points": 46.51528291014124, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.024044322225107804, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999973, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 47.1693787381431, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 47.1693787381431, "required_final_county_share_points": 47.16937873814311, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.003259695682198218, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.9999999999999996, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": 1.2294861606633773, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "ABOVE", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 6.379560899608066e-05, "criticality_score": 5.18880252882711e-05, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -34661.17668149422, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -4614.557813732066, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 11091.342282211921, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Haley Stevens": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 48.78440505337972, "expected_final_county_share_points": 48.78440505337972, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 50.01389121404309, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 50.01389121404309, "required_final_county_share_points": 50.01389121404309, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 50.01389121404309, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 29527.80561319898, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 50.01389121404309, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 50.01389121404309, "required_final_county_share_points": 50.01389121404309, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 50.01389121404309, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 50.666788780631386, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 50.666788780631386, "required_final_county_share_points": 50.666788780631386, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.07865391656842785, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.999999999999999, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 51.31907874162016, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 51.31907874162016, "required_final_county_share_points": 51.31907874162016, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.10597932088248406, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -1.2294861606633702, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 6.379560899608066e-05, "criticality_score": 5.18880252882714e-05, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 34757.05235609253, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 64803.67122385468, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 80509.57131979866, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Mallory McMorrow": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 4.12432540169107, "expected_final_county_share_points": 4.1243254016910695, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 33.88012237605316, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 33.88012237605316, "required_final_county_share_points": 33.88012237605316, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 33.88012237605316, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 709772.4220973465, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 33.88012237605316, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 33.88012237605316, "required_final_county_share_points": 33.88012237605316, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 33.88012237605316, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 34.49117028649661, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 34.49117028649661, "required_final_county_share_points": 34.49117028649661, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.159018308558073, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999906, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 35.100161871624735, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 35.100161871624735, "required_final_county_share_points": 35.100161871624735, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.213613509684069, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.999999999999993, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -29.755796974362088, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "WELL BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 6.379560899608066e-05, "criticality_score": 2.1439724518569486e-06, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 34712.392276440834, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 64759.01114420299, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 80464.91124014698, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } } } }, { "cid": "fips:26027", "county": "Cass", "fips": "26027", "reporting": 99.0, "current_votes": 3505, "current_candidate_votes": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 1579, "Haley Stevens": 1592, "Mallory McMorrow": 334 }, "current_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 45.049928673323826, "Haley Stevens": 45.42082738944365, "Mallory McMorrow": 9.529243937232525 }, "estimated_remaining_votes": 77.55888915228525, "estimated_final_votes": 3582.5588891522852, "turnout_disagreement_votes": 0.0, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 46.24712406275712, "Haley Stevens": 45.814655588728456, "Mallory McMorrow": 7.938220348514428 }, "remaining_sources": [ { "model": "v3", "remaining_votes": 77.55888915228525, "weight": 0.1342208488636769 }, { "model": "histgeo", "remaining_votes": 77.55888915228525, "weight": 0.05994207394479305 }, { "model": "latent", "remaining_votes": 77.55888915228525, "weight": 0.07672787409296966 }, { "model": "batchbias", "remaining_votes": 77.55888915228525, "weight": 0.045123489075924846 } ], "share_sources": [ { "model": "v0", "weight": 0.03630604611298715, "source": "statewide raw" }, { "model": "v1", "weight": 0.14599140026529184, "source": "county live" }, { "model": "v3", "weight": 0.15004242351696637, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "market", "weight": 0.0786646379365536, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "histgeo", "weight": 0.06573339512824654, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "latent", "weight": 0.08483492578364633, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "batchbias", "weight": 0.04883898267529022, "source": "county remaining" } ], "candidate_benchmarks": { "Abdul El-Sayed": { "opponent": "Haley Stevens", "expected_remaining_share_points": 46.24712406275712, "expected_final_county_share_points": 45.075846780290284, "current_county_share_points": 45.049928673323826, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 45.06552637128383, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 45.06552637128383, "required_final_county_share_points": 45.05026634819939, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 45.06552637128383, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": -29721.852100193802, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": false }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 45.06552637128383, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 45.06552637128383, "required_final_county_share_points": 45.05026634819939, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 45.06552637128383, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 45.6937409089055, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 45.6937409089055, "required_final_county_share_points": 45.06386657730791, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.024044322225107804, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999973, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 46.32214511278043, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 46.32214511278043, "required_final_county_share_points": 45.07747091250496, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.003259695682198218, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.9999999999999996, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": 1.1815976914732929, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "ABOVE", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 6.31760898273812e-05, "criticality_score": 5.3466666601734084e-05, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -35002.37803120948, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -4661.115155025047, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 11198.800585092264, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Haley Stevens": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 45.814655588728456, "expected_final_county_share_points": 45.429353384018604, "current_county_share_points": 45.42082738944365, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 46.99625328020174, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 46.99625328020174, "required_final_county_share_points": 45.4549338161095, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 46.99625328020174, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 29813.91387984529, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 46.99625328020174, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 46.99625328020174, "required_final_county_share_points": 45.4549338161095, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 46.99625328020174, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 47.624272009941315, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 47.624272009941315, "required_final_county_share_points": 45.46852980616926, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.07865391656842785, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.999999999999999, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.25208878681081, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.25208878681081, "required_final_county_share_points": 45.482121424147294, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.10597932088248406, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -1.1815976914732857, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 6.31760898273812e-05, "criticality_score": 5.346666660173441e-05, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 35094.43981086097, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 65435.70268704539, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 81295.6184271627, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Mallory McMorrow": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 7.938220348514428, "expected_final_county_share_points": 9.494799835691111, "current_county_share_points": 9.529243937232525, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 42.967592307350436, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 42.967592307350436, "required_final_county_share_points": 10.253151410889473, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 42.967592307350436, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 716736.3860586612, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 42.967592307350436, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 42.967592307350436, "required_final_county_share_points": 10.253151410889473, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 42.967592307350436, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 43.43827742302718, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 43.43827742302718, "required_final_county_share_points": 10.263341282386893, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.159018308558073, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999906, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 43.90090853299885, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 43.90090853299885, "required_final_county_share_points": 10.273356792553479, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.213613509684069, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.999999999999993, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -35.02937195883601, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "WELL BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 6.31760898273812e-05, "criticality_score": 1.8035176280528576e-06, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 35056.56337562075, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 65397.82625180518, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 81257.74199192249, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } } } }, { "cid": "26113", "county": "26113", "fips": null, "reporting": 0.0, "current_votes": 0, "current_candidate_votes": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 0, "Haley Stevens": 0, "Mallory McMorrow": 0 }, "current_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": null, "Haley Stevens": null, "Mallory McMorrow": null }, "estimated_remaining_votes": 70.66382028501641, "estimated_final_votes": 70.66382028501641, "turnout_disagreement_votes": 0.0, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 43.718092967741406, "Haley Stevens": 51.20805675302659, "Mallory McMorrow": 5.073850279232022 }, "remaining_sources": [ { "model": "market", "remaining_votes": 70.66382028501641, "weight": 0.1780093144963334 } ], "share_sources": [ { "model": "v0", "weight": 0.03630604611298715, "source": "statewide raw" }, { "model": "v3", "weight": 0.06301781787712588, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "market", "weight": 0.18729675699179427, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "histgeo", "weight": 0.02760802595386354, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "latent", "weight": 0.03563066882913146, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "batchbias", "weight": 0.020512372723621893, "source": "statewide fallback" } ], "candidate_benchmarks": { "Abdul El-Sayed": { "opponent": "Haley Stevens", "expected_remaining_share_points": 43.718092967741406, "expected_final_county_share_points": 43.718092967741406, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 42.509882863161586, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 42.509882863161586, "required_final_county_share_points": 42.509882863161586, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 42.509882863161586, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": -32629.023045228183, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": false }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 42.509882863161586, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 42.509882863161586, "required_final_county_share_points": 42.509882863161586, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 42.509882863161586, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 43.15160132720069, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 43.15160132720069, "required_final_county_share_points": 43.15160132720069, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.024044322225107804, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999973, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 43.79497877265758, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 43.79497877265758, "required_final_county_share_points": 43.79497877265758, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.003259695682198218, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.9999999999999996, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": 1.2082101045798197, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "ABOVE", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 5.755966732719225e-05, "criticality_score": 4.764044524127683e-05, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -38424.799776482236, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -5122.968165018729, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 12284.489313092865, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Haley Stevens": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 51.20805675302659, "expected_final_county_share_points": 51.20805675302659, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 52.416266857606416, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 52.416266857606416, "required_final_county_share_points": 52.416266857606416, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 52.416266857606416, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 32723.94919494895, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 52.416266857606416, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 52.416266857606416, "required_final_county_share_points": 52.416266857606416, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 52.416266857606416, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 53.05632640895127, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 53.05632640895127, "required_final_county_share_points": 53.05632640895127, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.07865391656842785, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.999999999999999, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 53.69472713754651, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 53.69472713754651, "required_final_county_share_points": 53.69472713754651, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.10597932088248406, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -1.2082101045798268, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 5.755966732719225e-05, "criticality_score": 4.764044524127655e-05, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 38519.725926203006, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 71821.55753766651, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 89229.0150157781, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Mallory McMorrow": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 5.073850279232022, "expected_final_county_share_points": 5.073850279232021, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 35.200272937103406, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 35.200272937103406, "required_final_county_share_points": 35.200272937103406, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 35.200272937103406, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 786668.7726705396, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 35.200272937103406, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 35.200272937103406, "required_final_county_share_points": 35.200272937103406, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 35.200272937103406, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 35.721087669136104, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 35.721087669136104, "required_final_county_share_points": 35.721087669136104, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.159018308558073, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999906, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 36.23686195986374, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 36.23686195986374, "required_final_county_share_points": 36.23686195986374, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.213613509684069, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.999999999999993, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -30.126422657871384, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "WELL BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 5.755966732719225e-05, "criticality_score": 1.9106041225294023e-06, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 38473.59171972921, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 71775.42333119272, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 89182.88080930432, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } } } }, { "cid": "fips:26113", "county": "Missaukee", "fips": "26113", "reporting": 93.37, "current_votes": 943, "current_candidate_votes": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 352, "Haley Stevens": 529, "Mallory McMorrow": 62 }, "current_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 37.32767762460234, "Haley Stevens": 56.09756097560976, "Mallory McMorrow": 6.574761399787911 }, "estimated_remaining_votes": 70.12569231661234, "estimated_final_votes": 1013.1256923166123, "turnout_disagreement_votes": 0.0, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 40.657502642669314, "Haley Stevens": 53.542604317253236, "Mallory McMorrow": 5.799893040077455 }, "remaining_sources": [ { "model": "v3", "remaining_votes": 70.12569231661234, "weight": 0.1342208488636769 }, { "model": "histgeo", "remaining_votes": 70.12569231661234, "weight": 0.05994207394479305 }, { "model": "latent", "remaining_votes": 70.12569231661234, "weight": 0.07672787409296966 }, { "model": "batchbias", "remaining_votes": 70.12569231661234, "weight": 0.045123489075924846 } ], "share_sources": [ { "model": "v0", "weight": 0.03630604611298715, "source": "statewide raw" }, { "model": "v1", "weight": 0.14599140026529184, "source": "county live" }, { "model": "v3", "weight": 0.15004242351696637, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "market", "weight": 0.0786646379365536, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "histgeo", "weight": 0.06573339512824654, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "latent", "weight": 0.08483492578364633, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "batchbias", "weight": 0.04883898267529022, "source": "county remaining" } ], "candidate_benchmarks": { "Abdul El-Sayed": { "opponent": "Haley Stevens", "expected_remaining_share_points": 40.657502642669314, "expected_final_county_share_points": 37.55815868579345, "current_county_share_points": 37.32767762460234, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 39.475348273945855, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 39.475348273945855, "required_final_county_share_points": 37.47633330700725, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 39.475348273945855, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": -32882.80651942168, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": false }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 39.475348273945855, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 39.475348273945855, "required_final_county_share_points": 37.47633330700725, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 39.475348273945855, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 40.10279153864242, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 40.10279153864242, "required_final_county_share_points": 37.51976315353067, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.024044322225107804, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999973, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 40.732849006514385, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 40.732849006514385, "required_final_county_share_points": 37.56337394779722, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.003259695682198218, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.9999999999999996, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": 1.1821543687234595, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "ABOVE", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 5.7121331744487225e-05, "criticality_score": 4.831968925189463e-05, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -38723.05866980786, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -5165.676683051074, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 12375.36150447417, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Haley Stevens": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 53.542604317253236, "expected_final_county_share_points": 55.920714108666225, "current_county_share_points": 56.09756097560976, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 54.724758685976695, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 54.724758685976695, "required_final_county_share_points": 56.00253948745243, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 54.724758685976695, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 32977.006626381604, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 54.724758685976695, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 54.724758685976695, "required_final_county_share_points": 56.00253948745243, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 54.724758685976695, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 55.34959779983686, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 55.34959779983686, "required_final_county_share_points": 56.04578908202716, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.07865391656842785, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.999999999999999, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 55.97184277241885, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 55.97184277241885, "required_final_county_share_points": 56.0888591174865, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.10597932088248406, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -1.1821543687234595, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 5.7121331744487225e-05, "criticality_score": 4.831968925189463e-05, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 38817.25877676779, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 72374.64076352456, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 89915.67895104982, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Mallory McMorrow": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 5.799893040077455, "expected_final_county_share_points": 6.5211272055403215, "current_county_share_points": 6.574761399787911, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 35.35192401567291, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 35.35192401567291, "required_final_county_share_points": 8.566635129425812, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 35.35192401567291, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 792706.1697831858, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 35.35192401567291, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 35.35192401567291, "required_final_county_share_points": 8.566635129425812, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 35.35192401567291, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 35.79984056686932, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 35.79984056686932, "required_final_county_share_points": 8.59763864507143, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.159018308558073, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999906, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 36.24157679608795, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 36.24157679608795, "required_final_county_share_points": 8.628214376325916, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.213613509684069, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.999999999999993, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -29.55203097559545, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "WELL BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 5.7121331744487225e-05, "criticality_score": 1.932907142377421e-06, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 38769.516065490614, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 72326.89805224739, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 89867.93623977265, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } } } }, { "cid": "fips:26107", "county": "Mecosta", "fips": "26107", "reporting": 98.54, "current_votes": 3431, "current_candidate_votes": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 1535, "Haley Stevens": 1742, "Mallory McMorrow": 154 }, "current_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 44.7391431069659, "Haley Stevens": 50.77236957155349, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.488487321480618 }, "estimated_remaining_votes": 69.15789552562957, "estimated_final_votes": 3500.1578955256296, "turnout_disagreement_votes": 1.4210854715202004e-14, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 46.03660360279086, "Haley Stevens": 49.67528155502004, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.288114842189099 }, "remaining_sources": [ { "model": "v3", "remaining_votes": 69.15789552562956, "weight": 0.1342208488636769 }, { "model": "histgeo", "remaining_votes": 69.15789552562956, "weight": 0.05994207394479305 }, { "model": "latent", "remaining_votes": 69.15789552562956, "weight": 0.07672787409296966 }, { "model": "batchbias", "remaining_votes": 69.15789552562956, "weight": 0.045123489075924846 } ], "share_sources": [ { "model": "v0", "weight": 0.03630604611298715, "source": "statewide raw" }, { "model": "v1", "weight": 0.14599140026529184, "source": "county live" }, { "model": "v3", "weight": 0.15004242351696637, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "market", "weight": 0.0786646379365536, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "histgeo", "weight": 0.06573339512824654, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "latent", "weight": 0.08483492578364633, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "batchbias", "weight": 0.04883898267529022, "source": "county remaining" } ], "candidate_benchmarks": { "Abdul El-Sayed": { "opponent": "Haley Stevens", "expected_remaining_share_points": 46.03660360279086, "expected_final_county_share_points": 44.764778989716675, "current_county_share_points": 44.7391431069659, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 44.81124939760961, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 44.81124939760961, "required_final_county_share_points": 44.74056781963999, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 44.81124939760961, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": -33338.15894573573, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": false }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 44.81124939760961, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 44.81124939760961, "required_final_county_share_points": 44.74056781963999, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 44.81124939760961, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 45.462393377679874, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 45.462393377679874, "required_final_county_share_points": 44.75343345275998, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.024044322225107804, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999973, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 46.11449353500543, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 46.11449353500543, "required_final_county_share_points": 44.76631797851528, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.003259695682198218, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.9999999999999996, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": 1.2253542051812545, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "ABOVE", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 5.633300667085539e-05, "criticality_score": 4.597283498327131e-05, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -39260.139686136325, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -5233.155113098833, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 12553.352667440588, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Haley Stevens": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 49.67528155502004, "expected_final_county_share_points": 50.75069274990871, "current_county_share_points": 50.77236957155349, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 50.9006357602013, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 50.9006357602013, "required_final_county_share_points": 50.77490391998539, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 50.9006357602013, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 33433.870830893546, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 50.9006357602013, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 50.9006357602013, "required_final_county_share_points": 50.77490391998539, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 50.9006357602013, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 51.55081922102555, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 51.55081922102555, "required_final_county_share_points": 50.78775057467879, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.07865391656842785, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.999999999999999, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 52.20003784099687, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 52.20003784099687, "required_final_county_share_points": 50.8005781655571, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.10597932088248406, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -1.2253542051812545, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 5.633300667085539e-05, "criticality_score": 4.597283498327131e-05, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 39355.85157129414, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 73382.83614433161, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 91169.34392487103, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Mallory McMorrow": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 4.288114842189099, "expected_final_county_share_points": 4.484528260374612, "current_county_share_points": 4.488487321480618, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 33.977813559867826, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 33.977813559867826, "required_final_county_share_points": 5.0711523908829585, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 33.977813559867826, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 803797.7207472778, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 33.977813559867826, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 33.977813559867826, "required_final_county_share_points": 5.0711523908829585, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 33.977813559867826, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 34.56547966118618, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 34.56547966118618, "required_final_county_share_points": 5.082763795868682, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.159018308558073, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999906, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 35.150318703529805, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 35.150318703529805, "required_final_county_share_points": 5.094319342388859, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.213613509684069, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.999999999999993, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -29.689698717678727, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "WELL BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 5.633300667085539e-05, "criticality_score": 1.8973923314793324e-06, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 39310.464404581304, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 73337.44897761878, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 91123.95675815821, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } } } }, { "cid": "fips:26001", "county": "Alcona", "fips": "26001", "reporting": 96.49, "current_votes": 1237, "current_candidate_votes": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 518, "Haley Stevens": 618, "Mallory McMorrow": 101 }, "current_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 41.875505254648345, "Haley Stevens": 49.95957962813258, "Mallory McMorrow": 8.164915117219078 }, "estimated_remaining_votes": 44.60802981852043, "estimated_final_votes": 1281.6080298185204, "turnout_disagreement_votes": 7.105427357601002e-15, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 43.94145388169189, "Haley Stevens": 49.10657576191287, "Mallory McMorrow": 6.95197035639523 }, "remaining_sources": [ { "model": "v3", "remaining_votes": 44.608029818520436, "weight": 0.1342208488636769 }, { "model": "histgeo", "remaining_votes": 44.608029818520436, "weight": 0.05994207394479305 }, { "model": "latent", "remaining_votes": 44.608029818520436, "weight": 0.07672787409296966 }, { "model": "batchbias", "remaining_votes": 44.608029818520436, "weight": 0.045123489075924846 } ], "share_sources": [ { "model": "v0", "weight": 0.03630604611298715, "source": "statewide raw" }, { "model": "v1", "weight": 0.14599140026529184, "source": "county live" }, { "model": "v3", "weight": 0.15004242351696637, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "market", "weight": 0.0786646379365536, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "histgeo", "weight": 0.06573339512824654, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "latent", "weight": 0.08483492578364633, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "batchbias", "weight": 0.04883898267529022, "source": "county remaining" } ], "candidate_benchmarks": { "Abdul El-Sayed": { "opponent": "Haley Stevens", "expected_remaining_share_points": 43.94145388169189, "expected_final_county_share_points": 41.94741327630122, "current_county_share_points": 41.875505254648345, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 42.75268882707857, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 42.75268882707857, "required_final_county_share_points": 41.906036766658936, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 42.75268882707857, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": -51713.12375166965, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": false }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 42.75268882707857, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 42.75268882707857, "required_final_county_share_points": 41.906036766658936, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 42.75268882707857, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 43.384256852417806, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 43.384256852417806, "required_final_county_share_points": 41.92801931097145, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.024044322225107804, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999973, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 44.017054066842476, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 44.017054066842476, "required_final_county_share_points": 41.950044638804435, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.003259695682198218, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.9999999999999996, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": 1.1887650546133202, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "ABOVE", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 3.63357563477211e-05, "criticality_score": 3.0565969454359796e-05, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -60894.24488648779, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -8140.6340740838605, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 19434.613069909876, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Haley Stevens": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 49.10657576191287, "expected_final_county_share_points": 49.92988972215951, "current_county_share_points": 49.95957962813258, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 50.2953408165262, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 50.2953408165262, "required_final_county_share_points": 49.97126623180179, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 50.2953408165262, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 51806.17178131326, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 50.2953408165262, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 50.2953408165262, "required_final_county_share_points": 49.97126623180179, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 50.2953408165262, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 50.92567698545625, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 50.92567698545625, "required_final_county_share_points": 49.99320589975417, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.07865391656842785, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.999999999999999, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 51.55477865435113, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 51.55477865435113, "required_final_county_share_points": 50.015102599331584, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.10597932088248406, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -1.1887650546133273, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 3.63357563477211e-05, "criticality_score": 3.056596945435961e-05, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 60987.292916131395, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 113740.9037285353, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 141316.15087252908, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Mallory McMorrow": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 6.95197035639523, "expected_final_county_share_points": 8.122697001539272, "current_county_share_points": 8.164915117219078, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 39.6597924080381, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 39.6597924080381, "required_final_county_share_points": 9.26113517251823, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 39.6597924080381, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1246165.1540773183, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 39.6597924080381, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 39.6597924080381, "required_final_county_share_points": 9.26113517251823, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 39.6597924080381, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 40.123334744010954, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 40.123334744010954, "required_final_county_share_points": 9.277269364770563, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.159018308558073, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999906, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 40.57960128626309, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 40.57960128626309, "required_final_county_share_points": 9.293150313585201, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.213613509684069, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.999999999999993, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -32.70782205164287, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "WELL BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 3.63357563477211e-05, "criticality_score": 1.1109194702829807e-06, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 60945.13831072587, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 113698.74912312979, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 141273.99626712356, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } } } }, { "cid": "26001", "county": "26001", "fips": null, "reporting": 0.0, "current_votes": 0, "current_candidate_votes": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 0, "Haley Stevens": 0, "Mallory McMorrow": 0 }, "current_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": null, "Haley Stevens": null, "Mallory McMorrow": null }, "estimated_remaining_votes": 44.41297746692453, "estimated_final_votes": 44.41297746692453, "turnout_disagreement_votes": 0.0, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 45.77032834674376, "Haley Stevens": 48.359122176595065, "Mallory McMorrow": 5.870549476661171 }, "remaining_sources": [ { "model": "market", "remaining_votes": 44.41297746692453, "weight": 0.1780093144963334 } ], "share_sources": [ { "model": "v0", "weight": 0.03630604611298715, "source": "statewide raw" }, { "model": "v3", "weight": 0.06301781787712588, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "market", "weight": 0.18729675699179427, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "histgeo", "weight": 0.02760802595386354, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "latent", "weight": 0.03563066882913146, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "batchbias", "weight": 0.020512372723621893, "source": "statewide fallback" } ], "candidate_benchmarks": { "Abdul El-Sayed": { "opponent": "Haley Stevens", "expected_remaining_share_points": 45.77032834674376, "expected_final_county_share_points": 45.77032834674376, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 44.56407668701315, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 44.56407668701315, "required_final_county_share_points": 44.56407668701315, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 44.56407668701315, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": -51938.60090025977, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": false }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 44.56407668701315, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 44.56407668701315, "required_final_county_share_points": 44.56407668701315, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 44.56407668701315, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 45.20515071393028, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 45.20515071393028, "required_final_county_share_points": 45.20515071393028, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.024044322225107804, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999973, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 45.8469820345517, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 45.8469820345517, "required_final_county_share_points": 45.846982034551694, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.003259695682198218, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.9999999999999996, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": 1.2062516597306114, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "ABOVE", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 3.617687520566053e-05, "criticality_score": 2.9991150614242308e-05, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -61160.04356652592, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -8174.750114699829, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 19521.60165024123, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Haley Stevens": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 48.359122176595065, "expected_final_county_share_points": 48.359122176595065, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 49.56537383632567, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 49.56537383632567, "required_final_county_share_points": 49.565373836325676, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 49.56537383632567, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 52032.73035078311, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 49.56537383632567, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 49.56537383632567, "required_final_county_share_points": 49.565373836325676, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 49.56537383632567, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 50.20568556244268, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 50.20568556244268, "required_final_county_share_points": 50.20568556244268, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.07865391656842785, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.999999999999999, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 50.845229996395126, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 50.845229996395126, "required_final_county_share_points": 50.845229996395126, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.10597932088248406, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -1.2062516597306043, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 3.617687520566053e-05, "criticality_score": 2.9991150614242484e-05, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 61254.17301704926, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 114239.46646887533, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 141935.8182338164, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Mallory McMorrow": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 5.870549476661171, "expected_final_county_share_points": 5.870549476661171, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 38.26983900705061, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 38.26983900705061, "required_final_county_share_points": 38.26983900705061, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 38.26983900705061, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1251636.9344559538, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 38.26983900705061, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 38.26983900705061, "required_final_county_share_points": 38.26983900705061, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 38.26983900705061, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 38.79559940409831, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 38.79559940409831, "required_final_county_share_points": 38.79559940409832, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.159018308558073, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999906, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 39.31519268020871, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 39.31519268020871, "required_final_county_share_points": 39.3151926802087, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.213613509684069, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.999999999999993, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -32.39928953038944, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "WELL BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 3.617687520566053e-05, "criticality_score": 1.1165947071687434e-06, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 61211.684444349325, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 114196.97789617539, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 141893.32966111644, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } } } }, { "cid": "26083", "county": "26083", "fips": null, "reporting": 0.0, "current_votes": 0, "current_candidate_votes": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 0, "Haley Stevens": 0, "Mallory McMorrow": 0 }, "current_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": null, "Haley Stevens": null, "Mallory McMorrow": null }, "estimated_remaining_votes": 35.8563472124265, "estimated_final_votes": 35.8563472124265, "turnout_disagreement_votes": 0.0, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 50.54534280267319, "Haley Stevens": 44.552768807264314, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.901888390062494 }, "remaining_sources": [ { "model": "market", "remaining_votes": 35.8563472124265, "weight": 0.1780093144963334 } ], "share_sources": [ { "model": "v0", "weight": 0.03630604611298715, "source": "statewide raw" }, { "model": "v3", "weight": 0.06301781787712588, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "market", "weight": 0.18729675699179427, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "histgeo", "weight": 0.02760802595386354, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "latent", "weight": 0.03563066882913146, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "batchbias", "weight": 0.020512372723621893, "source": "statewide fallback" } ], "candidate_benchmarks": { "Abdul El-Sayed": { "opponent": "Haley Stevens", "expected_remaining_share_points": 50.54534280267319, "expected_final_county_share_points": 50.54534280267318, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 49.32777143483561, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 49.32777143483561, "required_final_county_share_points": 49.32777143483562, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 49.32777143483561, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": -64339.190017864654, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": false }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 49.32777143483561, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 49.32777143483561, "required_final_county_share_points": 49.32777143483562, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 49.32777143483561, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 49.97556610001704, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 49.97556610001704, "required_final_county_share_points": 49.97556610001704, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.024044322225107804, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999973, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 50.62252480183776, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 50.62252480183776, "required_final_county_share_points": 50.62252480183776, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.003259695682198218, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.9999999999999996, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": 1.2175713678375786, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "ABOVE", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 2.920701723726636e-05, "criticality_score": 2.3987930407018664e-05, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -75761.20472904183, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -10131.690651300216, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 24174.019285211187, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Haley Stevens": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 44.552768807264314, "expected_final_county_share_points": 44.552768807264314, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 45.7703401751019, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 45.7703401751019, "required_final_county_share_points": 45.7703401751019, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 45.7703401751019, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 64434.288129474604, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 45.7703401751019, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 45.7703401751019, "required_final_county_share_points": 45.7703401751019, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 45.7703401751019, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 46.41896598801332, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 46.41896598801332, "required_final_county_share_points": 46.41896598801332, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.07865391656842785, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.999999999999999, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 47.06841809269153, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 47.06841809269153, "required_final_county_share_points": 47.06841809269153, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.10597932088248406, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -1.2175713678375857, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 2.920701723726636e-05, "criticality_score": 2.3987930407018525e-05, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 75856.30284065176, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 141485.81691839336, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 175791.52685490478, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Mallory McMorrow": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 4.901888390062494, "expected_final_county_share_points": 4.901888390062494, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 37.923422838201105, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 37.923422838201105, "required_final_county_share_points": 37.923422838201105, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 37.923422838201105, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1550320.7193042855, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 37.923422838201105, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 37.923422838201105, "required_final_county_share_points": 37.923422838201105, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 37.923422838201105, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 38.56129569024896, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 38.56129569024896, "required_final_county_share_points": 38.56129569024896, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.159018308558073, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999906, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 39.19550814893862, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 39.19550814893862, "required_final_county_share_points": 39.19550814893862, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.213613509684069, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.999999999999993, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -33.02153444813861, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "WELL BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 2.920701723726636e-05, "criticality_score": 8.844839504092982e-07, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 75816.65196023455, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 141446.16603797616, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 175751.87597448757, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } } } }, { "cid": "fips:26083", "county": "Keweenaw", "fips": "26083", "reporting": 92.62, "current_votes": 414, "current_candidate_votes": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 216, "Haley Stevens": 173, "Mallory McMorrow": 25 }, "current_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 52.17391304347826, "Haley Stevens": 41.78743961352657, "Mallory McMorrow": 6.038647342995169 }, "estimated_remaining_votes": 35.70628898706627, "estimated_final_votes": 449.7062889870663, "turnout_disagreement_votes": 0.0, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 51.414155854246644, "Haley Stevens": 43.17512027896332, "Mallory McMorrow": 5.410723866790038 }, "remaining_sources": [ { "model": "v3", "remaining_votes": 35.70628898706627, "weight": 0.1342208488636769 }, { "model": "histgeo", "remaining_votes": 35.70628898706627, "weight": 0.05994207394479305 }, { "model": "latent", "remaining_votes": 35.70628898706627, "weight": 0.07672787409296966 }, { "model": "batchbias", "remaining_votes": 35.70628898706627, "weight": 0.045123489075924846 } ], "share_sources": [ { "model": "v0", "weight": 0.03630604611298715, "source": "statewide raw" }, { "model": "v1", "weight": 0.14599140026529184, "source": "county live" }, { "model": "v3", "weight": 0.15004242351696637, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "market", "weight": 0.0786646379365536, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "histgeo", "weight": 0.06573339512824654, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "latent", "weight": 0.08483492578364633, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "batchbias", "weight": 0.04883898267529022, "source": "county remaining" } ], "candidate_benchmarks": { "Abdul El-Sayed": { "opponent": "Haley Stevens", "expected_remaining_share_points": 51.414155854246644, "expected_final_county_share_points": 52.11358898214523, "current_county_share_points": 52.17391304347826, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 50.206748338556984, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 50.206748338556984, "required_final_county_share_points": 52.01772187346529, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 50.206748338556984, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": -64608.92365871508, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": false }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 50.206748338556984, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 50.206748338556984, "required_final_county_share_points": 52.01772187346529, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 50.206748338556984, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 50.84932166421034, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 50.84932166421034, "required_final_county_share_points": 52.06874163774932, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.024044322225107804, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999973, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 51.49064316406017, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 51.49064316406017, "required_final_county_share_points": 52.119662008151145, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.003259695682198218, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.9999999999999996, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": 1.2074075156896598, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "ABOVE", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 2.908478634886257e-05, "criticality_score": 2.4088624570346173e-05, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -76078.94020111645, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -10173.61341101689, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 24276.268717532173, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Haley Stevens": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 43.17512027896332, "expected_final_county_share_points": 41.89762025381394, "current_county_share_points": 41.78743961352657, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 44.38252779465299, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 44.38252779465299, "required_final_county_share_points": 41.993487362493866, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 44.38252779465299, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 64703.51293484829, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 44.38252779465299, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 44.38252779465299, "required_final_county_share_points": 41.993487362493866, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 44.38252779465299, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 45.02635022354158, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 45.02635022354158, "required_final_county_share_points": 42.04460630449049, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.07865391656842785, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.999999999999999, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 45.67141898629111, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 45.67141898629111, "required_final_county_share_points": 42.095824204313836, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.10597932088248406, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -1.2074075156896669, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 2.908478634886257e-05, "criticality_score": 2.408862457034603e-05, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 76173.52947724966, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 142078.8562673492, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 176528.73839589828, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Mallory McMorrow": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 5.410723866790038, "expected_final_county_share_points": 5.988790764040837, "current_county_share_points": 6.038647342995169, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 39.854050999225315, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 39.854050999225315, "required_final_county_share_points": 8.723561040518259, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 39.854050999225315, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1556836.5409014327, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 39.854050999225315, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 39.854050999225315, "required_final_county_share_points": 8.723561040518259, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 39.854050999225315, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 40.486918980266964, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 40.486918980266964, "required_final_county_share_points": 8.773810208864633, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.159018308558073, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999906, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 41.114995823411356, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 41.114995823411356, "required_final_county_share_points": 8.823678965020816, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.213613509684069, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.999999999999993, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -34.44332713243528, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "WELL BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 2.908478634886257e-05, "criticality_score": 8.444244145471483e-07, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 76135.76508083749, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 142041.09187093703, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 176490.9739994861, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } } } }, { "cid": "26133", "county": "26133", "fips": null, "reporting": 0.0, "current_votes": 0, "current_candidate_votes": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 0, "Haley Stevens": 0, "Mallory McMorrow": 0 }, "current_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": null, "Haley Stevens": null, "Mallory McMorrow": null }, "estimated_remaining_votes": 20.765896460573458, "estimated_final_votes": 20.765896460573458, "turnout_disagreement_votes": 0.0, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 45.09658156322723, "Haley Stevens": 49.80898453019564, "Mallory McMorrow": 5.094433906577141 }, "remaining_sources": [ { "model": "market", "remaining_votes": 20.765896460573458, "weight": 0.1780093144963334 } ], "share_sources": [ { "model": "v0", "weight": 0.03630604611298715, "source": "statewide raw" }, { "model": "v3", "weight": 0.06301781787712588, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "market", "weight": 0.18729675699179427, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "histgeo", "weight": 0.02760802595386354, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "latent", "weight": 0.03563066882913146, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "batchbias", "weight": 0.020512372723621893, "source": "statewide fallback" } ], "candidate_benchmarks": { "Abdul El-Sayed": { "opponent": "Haley Stevens", "expected_remaining_share_points": 45.09658156322723, "expected_final_county_share_points": 45.09658156322723, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 43.88315370763939, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 43.88315370763939, "required_final_county_share_points": 43.88315370763939, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 43.88315370763939, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": -111136.26813302236, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": false }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 43.88315370763939, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 43.88315370763939, "required_final_county_share_points": 43.88315370763939, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 43.88315370763939, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 44.52786996707626, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 44.52786996707626, "required_final_county_share_points": 44.52786996707626, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.024044322225107804, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999973, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 45.173737872771454, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 45.173737872771454, "required_final_county_share_points": 45.173737872771454, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.003259695682198218, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.9999999999999996, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": 1.2134278555878453, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "ABOVE", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 1.691499394174383e-05, "criticality_score": 1.393984311786658e-05, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -130858.59151679727, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -17536.508426272667, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 41698.95242598537, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Haley Stevens": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 49.80898453019564, "expected_final_county_share_points": 49.80898453019564, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 51.022412385783475, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 51.022412385783475, "required_final_county_share_points": 51.022412385783475, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 51.022412385783475, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 111231.17369911578, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 51.022412385783475, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 51.022412385783475, "required_final_county_share_points": 51.022412385783475, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 51.022412385783475, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 51.665973699583475, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 51.665973699583475, "required_final_county_share_points": 51.665973699583475, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.07865391656842785, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.999999999999999, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 52.3083767917272, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 52.3083767917272, "required_final_county_share_points": 52.3083767917272, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.10597932088248406, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -1.2134278555878382, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 1.691499394174383e-05, "criticality_score": 1.3939843117866663e-05, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 130953.4970828907, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 244275.58017341525, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 303511.04102567333, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Mallory McMorrow": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 5.094433906577141, "expected_final_county_share_points": 5.09443390657714, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 35.93569516939837, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 35.93569516939837, "required_final_county_share_points": 35.93569516939837, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 35.93569516939837, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 2676925.9942237562, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 35.93569516939837, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 35.93569516939837, "required_final_county_share_points": 35.93569516939837, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 35.93569516939837, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 36.47796503384312, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 36.47796503384312, "required_final_county_share_points": 36.47796503384312, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.159018308558073, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999906, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 37.015296823645016, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 37.015296823645016, "required_final_county_share_points": 37.015296823645016, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.213613509684069, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.999999999999993, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -30.84126126282123, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "WELL BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 1.691499394174383e-05, "criticality_score": 5.484533786604457e-07, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 130908.78253226707, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 244230.86562279164, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 303466.3264750497, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } } } }, { "cid": "fips:26133", "county": "Osceola", "fips": "26133", "reporting": 99.0, "current_votes": 1571, "current_candidate_votes": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 634, "Haley Stevens": 833, "Mallory McMorrow": 104 }, "current_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 40.3564608529599, "Haley Stevens": 53.02355187778485, "Mallory McMorrow": 6.619987269255251 }, "estimated_remaining_votes": 19.133493263277842, "estimated_final_votes": 1590.1334932632778, "turnout_disagreement_votes": 0.0, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 42.84098377218572, "Haley Stevens": 51.316005385995645, "Mallory McMorrow": 5.8430108418186455 }, "remaining_sources": [ { "model": "v3", "remaining_votes": 19.133493263277842, "weight": 0.1342208488636769 }, { "model": "histgeo", "remaining_votes": 19.133493263277842, "weight": 0.05994207394479305 }, { "model": "latent", "remaining_votes": 19.133493263277842, "weight": 0.07672787409296966 }, { "model": "batchbias", "remaining_votes": 19.133493263277842, "weight": 0.045123489075924846 } ], "share_sources": [ { "model": "v0", "weight": 0.03630604611298715, "source": "statewide raw" }, { "model": "v1", "weight": 0.14599140026529184, "source": "county live" }, { "model": "v3", "weight": 0.15004242351696637, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "market", "weight": 0.0786646379365536, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "histgeo", "weight": 0.06573339512824654, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "latent", "weight": 0.08483492578364633, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "batchbias", "weight": 0.04883898267529022, "source": "county remaining" } ], "candidate_benchmarks": { "Abdul El-Sayed": { "opponent": "Haley Stevens", "expected_remaining_share_points": 42.84098377218572, "expected_final_county_share_points": 40.38635620623612, "current_county_share_points": 40.3564608529599, "recent_batch_votes": 228, "recent_batch_share_points": 39.473684210526315, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 41.645166002780186, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 41.645166002780186, "required_final_county_share_points": 40.37196736949257, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 41.645166002780186, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": -120624.1316510417, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": false }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 41.645166002780186, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 41.645166002780186, "required_final_county_share_points": 40.37196736949257, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 41.645166002780186, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 42.28021779737176, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 42.28021779737176, "required_final_county_share_points": 40.37960871487969, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.024044322225107804, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999973, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 42.917104004229515, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 42.917104004229515, "required_final_county_share_points": 40.38727213307697, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.003259695682198218, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.9999999999999996, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": 1.1958177694055365, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -2.1714817922538714, "status": "ABOVE", "recent_status": "BELOW", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 1.5585309463871013e-05, "criticality_score": 1.3033181026920818e-05, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -142029.09517306875, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -19038.76550489435, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 45250.459150865805, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Haley Stevens": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 51.316005385995645, "expected_final_county_share_points": 53.003005596962645, "current_county_share_points": 53.02355187778485, "recent_batch_votes": 228, "recent_batch_share_points": 53.94736842105263, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 52.51182315540118, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 52.51182315540118, "required_final_county_share_points": 53.0173944337062, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 52.51182315540118, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 120718.28864019987, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 52.51182315540118, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 52.51182315540118, "required_final_county_share_points": 53.0173944337062, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 52.51182315540118, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 53.14504218080076, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 53.14504218080076, "required_final_county_share_points": 53.02501372605366, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.07865391656842785, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.999999999999999, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 53.776430095742114, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 53.776430095742114, "required_final_county_share_points": 53.032610985320396, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.10597932088248406, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -1.1958177694055365, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": 1.4355452656514487, "status": "BELOW", "recent_status": "ABOVE", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 1.5585309463871013e-05, "criticality_score": 1.3033181026920818e-05, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 142123.25216222694, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 265113.5818304013, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 329402.8064861615, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Mallory McMorrow": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 5.8430108418186455, "expected_final_county_share_points": 6.610638196801229, "current_county_share_points": 6.619987269255251, "recent_batch_votes": 228, "recent_batch_share_points": 6.578947368421052, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 36.643946502032115, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 36.643946502032115, "required_final_county_share_points": 6.9812545616876305, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 36.643946502032115, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 2905312.3374015074, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 36.643946502032115, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 36.643946502032115, "required_final_county_share_points": 6.9812545616876305, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 36.643946502032115, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 37.12449412248782, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 37.12449412248782, "required_final_county_share_points": 6.9870368150000886, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.159018308558073, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999906, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 37.598823834433134, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 37.598823834433134, "required_final_county_share_points": 6.99274425049939, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.213613509684069, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.999999999999993, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -30.80093566021347, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -30.064999133611064, "status": "WELL BELOW", "recent_status": "WELL BELOW", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 1.5585309463871013e-05, "criticality_score": 5.060011694385974e-07, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 142077.77916768275, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 265068.1088358571, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 329357.3334916173, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } } } }, { "cid": "26095", "county": "26095", "fips": null, "reporting": 0.0, "current_votes": 0, "current_candidate_votes": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 0, "Haley Stevens": 0, "Mallory McMorrow": 0 }, "current_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": null, "Haley Stevens": null, "Mallory McMorrow": null }, "estimated_remaining_votes": 6.349298818934301, "estimated_final_votes": 6.349298818934301, "turnout_disagreement_votes": 0.0, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 46.186790528506585, "Haley Stevens": 48.15331330191162, "Mallory McMorrow": 5.659896169581791 }, "remaining_sources": [ { "model": "market", "remaining_votes": 6.349298818934301, "weight": 0.1780093144963334 } ], "share_sources": [ { "model": "v0", "weight": 0.03630604611298715, "source": "statewide raw" }, { "model": "v3", "weight": 0.06301781787712588, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "market", "weight": 0.18729675699179427, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "histgeo", "weight": 0.02760802595386354, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "latent", "weight": 0.03563066882913146, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "batchbias", "weight": 0.020512372723621893, "source": "statewide fallback" } ], "candidate_benchmarks": { "Abdul El-Sayed": { "opponent": "Haley Stevens", "expected_remaining_share_points": 46.186790528506585, "expected_final_county_share_points": 46.186790528506585, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 44.9772434252879, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 44.9772434252879, "required_final_county_share_points": 44.9772434252879, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 44.9772434252879, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": -363581.4788539525, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": false }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 44.9772434252879, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 44.9772434252879, "required_final_county_share_points": 44.9772434252879, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 44.9772434252879, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 45.620120281701126, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 45.620120281701126, "required_final_county_share_points": 45.62012028170113, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.024044322225107804, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999973, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 46.26363967307476, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 46.26363967307476, "required_final_county_share_points": 46.26363967307476, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.003259695682198218, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.9999999999999996, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": 1.2095471032186822, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "ABOVE", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 5.171862012338527e-06, "criticality_score": 4.275866560777891e-06, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -428084.9361692844, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -57455.87754997135, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 136278.49878527338, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Haley Stevens": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 48.15331330191162, "expected_final_county_share_points": 48.15331330191162, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 49.362860405130284, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 49.362860405130284, "required_final_county_share_points": 49.362860405130284, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 49.362860405130284, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 363675.8189577829, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 49.362860405130284, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 49.362860405130284, "required_final_county_share_points": 49.362860405130284, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 49.362860405130284, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 50.00508932225468, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 50.00508932225468, "required_final_county_share_points": 50.00508932225468, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.07865391656842785, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.999999999999999, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 50.6466649081806, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 50.6466649081806, "required_final_county_share_points": 50.6466649081806, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.10597932088248406, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -1.2095471032186609, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 5.171862012338527e-06, "criticality_score": 4.2758665607779666e-06, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 428179.27627311484, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 798808.3348924279, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 992542.7112276726, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Mallory McMorrow": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 5.659896169581791, "expected_final_county_share_points": 5.659896169581791, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 37.96374249047685, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 37.96374249047685, "required_final_county_share_points": 37.96374249047685, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 37.96374249047685, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 8755092.453481896, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 37.96374249047685, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 37.96374249047685, "required_final_county_share_points": 37.96374249047685, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 37.96374249047685, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 38.50336886832389, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 38.50336886832389, "required_final_county_share_points": 38.50336886832389, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.159018308558073, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999906, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 39.03716360335, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 39.03716360335, "required_final_county_share_points": 39.03716360335, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.213613509684069, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.999999999999993, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -32.303846320895055, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "WELL BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 5.171862012338527e-06, "criticality_score": 1.60100501994811e-07, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 428136.7828559825, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 798765.8414752955, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 992500.2178105402, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } } } }, { "cid": "fips:26135", "county": "Oscoda", "fips": "26135", "reporting": 99.0, "current_votes": 1082, "current_candidate_votes": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 412, "Haley Stevens": 631, "Mallory McMorrow": 39 }, "current_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 38.07763401109057, "Haley Stevens": 58.317929759704256, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.6044362292051755 }, "estimated_remaining_votes": 6.011111111111064, "estimated_final_votes": 1088.0111111111112, "turnout_disagreement_votes": 6.011111111111064, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 41.195319576083484, "Haley Stevens": 55.15509481308697, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.6495856108295506 }, "remaining_sources": [ { "model": "v3", "remaining_votes": 0.0, "weight": 0.1342208488636769 }, { "model": "histgeo", "remaining_votes": 0.0, "weight": 0.05994207394479305 }, { "model": "latent", "remaining_votes": 0.0, "weight": 0.07672787409296966 }, { "model": "batchbias", "remaining_votes": 0.0, "weight": 0.045123489075924846 } ], "share_sources": [ { "model": "v0", "weight": 0.03630604611298715, "source": "statewide raw" }, { "model": "v1", "weight": 0.14599140026529184, "source": "county live" }, { "model": "v3", "weight": 0.15004242351696637, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "market", "weight": 0.0786646379365536, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "histgeo", "weight": 0.06573339512824654, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "latent", "weight": 0.08483492578364633, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "batchbias", "weight": 0.04883898267529022, "source": "county remaining" } ], "candidate_benchmarks": { "Abdul El-Sayed": { "opponent": "Haley Stevens", "expected_remaining_share_points": 41.195319576083484, "expected_final_county_share_points": 38.0948587932176, "current_county_share_points": 38.07763401109057, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 39.989241721015205, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 39.989241721015205, "required_final_county_share_points": 38.08819537965369, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 39.989241721015205, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": -384044.31987589976, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": false }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 39.989241721015205, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 39.989241721015205, "required_final_county_share_points": 38.08819537965369, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 39.989241721015205, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 40.62932044253913, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 40.62932044253913, "required_final_county_share_points": 38.09173172618145, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.024044322225107804, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999973, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 41.27220768234806, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 41.27220768234806, "required_final_county_share_points": 38.095283589384806, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.003259695682198218, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.9999999999999996, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": 1.2060778550682798, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "ABOVE", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 4.896389049258738e-06, "criticality_score": 4.059762003491506e-06, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -452176.7695643425, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -60695.96000077151, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 143937.9960375126, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Haley Stevens": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 55.15509481308697, "expected_final_county_share_points": 58.30045553347984, "current_county_share_points": 58.317929759704256, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 56.361172668155255, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 56.361172668155255, "required_final_county_share_points": 58.307118947043755, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 56.361172668155255, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 384140.6702902889, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 56.361172668155255, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 56.361172668155255, "required_final_county_share_points": 58.307118947043755, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 56.361172668155255, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 56.998454928708355, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 56.998454928708355, "required_final_county_share_points": 58.310639843510906, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.07865391656842785, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.999999999999999, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 57.63295272454078, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 57.63295272454078, "required_final_county_share_points": 58.314145356195056, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.10597932088248406, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -1.206077855068287, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 4.896389049258738e-06, "criticality_score": 4.059762003491482e-06, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 452273.1199787317, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 843753.9295423025, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1048387.8855805867, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Mallory McMorrow": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 3.6495856108295506, "expected_final_county_share_points": 3.6046856733025474, "current_county_share_points": 3.6044362292051755, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 29.78078663836441, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 29.78078663836441, "required_final_county_share_points": 3.749056949697767, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 29.78078663836441, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 9247655.408247983, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 29.78078663836441, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 29.78078663836441, "required_final_county_share_points": 3.749056949697767, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 29.78078663836441, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 30.31375848753169, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 30.31375848753169, "required_final_county_share_points": 3.7520015455495193, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.159018308558073, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999906, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 30.844791877623084, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 30.844791877623084, "required_final_county_share_points": 3.754935431682621, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.213613509684069, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.999999999999993, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -26.13120102753486, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "WELL BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 4.896389049258738e-06, "criticality_score": 1.8737711458801052e-07, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 452221.6144695294, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 843702.4240331003, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1048336.3800713845, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } } } }, { "cid": "fips:26095", "county": "Luce", "fips": "26095", "reporting": 99.0, "current_votes": 407, "current_candidate_votes": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 174, "Haley Stevens": 201, "Mallory McMorrow": 32 }, "current_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 42.75184275184275, "Haley Stevens": 49.385749385749385, "Mallory McMorrow": 7.862407862407863 }, "estimated_remaining_votes": 5.603236249659915, "estimated_final_votes": 412.6032362496599, "turnout_disagreement_votes": 0.0, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 44.58543150399778, "Haley Stevens": 48.68284182359973, "Mallory McMorrow": 6.731726672402479 }, "remaining_sources": [ { "model": "v3", "remaining_votes": 5.603236249659915, "weight": 0.1342208488636769 }, { "model": "histgeo", "remaining_votes": 5.603236249659915, "weight": 0.05994207394479305 }, { "model": "latent", "remaining_votes": 5.603236249659915, "weight": 0.07672787409296966 }, { "model": "batchbias", "remaining_votes": 5.603236249659915, "weight": 0.045123489075924846 } ], "share_sources": [ { "model": "v0", "weight": 0.03630604611298715, "source": "statewide raw" }, { "model": "v1", "weight": 0.14599140026529184, "source": "county live" }, { "model": "v3", "weight": 0.15004242351696637, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "market", "weight": 0.0786646379365536, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "histgeo", "weight": 0.06573339512824654, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "latent", "weight": 0.08483492578364633, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "batchbias", "weight": 0.04883898267529022, "source": "county remaining" } ], "candidate_benchmarks": { "Abdul El-Sayed": { "opponent": "Haley Stevens", "expected_remaining_share_points": 44.58543150399778, "expected_final_county_share_points": 42.77674326172829, "current_county_share_points": 42.75184275184275, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 43.39212226693977, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 43.39212226693977, "required_final_county_share_points": 42.76053787847703, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 43.39212226693977, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": -411999.56283164845, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": false }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 43.39212226693977, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 43.39212226693977, "required_final_county_share_points": 42.76053787847703, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 43.39212226693977, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 44.02619273018236, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 44.02619273018236, "required_final_county_share_points": 42.76914868491853, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.024044322225107804, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999973, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 44.66129672533574, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 44.66129672533574, "required_final_county_share_points": 42.77777352693454, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.003259695682198218, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.9999999999999996, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": 1.1933092370580098, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "ABOVE", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 4.564151968931638e-06, "criticality_score": 3.824785585490077e-06, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -485091.5595102238, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -65113.793215403726, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 154416.02706069147, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Haley Stevens": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 48.68284182359973, "expected_final_county_share_points": 49.376203757440216, "current_county_share_points": 49.385749385749385, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 49.87615106065774, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 49.87615106065774, "required_final_county_share_points": 49.39240914069149, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 49.87615106065774, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 412092.831104976, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 49.87615106065774, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 49.87615106065774, "required_final_county_share_points": 49.39240914069149, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 49.87615106065774, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 50.50918423975368, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 50.50918423975368, "required_final_county_share_points": 49.40100586060233, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.07865391656842785, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.999999999999999, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 51.14117640413849, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 51.14117640413849, "required_final_county_share_points": 49.409588443320715, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.10597932088248406, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -1.1933092370580098, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 4.564151968931638e-06, "criticality_score": 3.824785585490077e-06, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 485184.8277835514, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 905162.5940783714, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1124692.4143544668, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Mallory McMorrow": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 6.731726672402479, "expected_final_county_share_points": 7.847052980831477, "current_county_share_points": 7.862407862407863, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 39.57202357551705, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 39.57202357551705, "required_final_county_share_points": 8.293030922569635, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 39.57202357551705, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 9920820.304696234, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 39.57202357551705, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 39.57202357551705, "required_final_county_share_points": 8.293030922569635, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 39.57202357551705, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 40.05181387083032, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 40.05181387083032, "required_final_county_share_points": 8.299546572808762, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.159018308558073, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999906, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 40.5244778505859, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 40.5244778505859, "required_final_county_share_points": 8.305965446226594, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.213613509684069, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.999999999999993, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -32.84029690311457, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "WELL BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 4.564151968931638e-06, "criticality_score": 1.3898022854046652e-07, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 485142.8766684002, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 905120.6429632202, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1124650.4632393157, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } } } }, { "cid": "26135", "county": "26135", "fips": null, "reporting": 0.0, "current_votes": 0, "current_candidate_votes": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 0, "Haley Stevens": 0, "Mallory McMorrow": 0 }, "current_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": null, "Haley Stevens": null, "Mallory McMorrow": null }, "estimated_remaining_votes": 0.0, "estimated_final_votes": 0.0, "turnout_disagreement_votes": 0.0, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 44.05942024273639, "Haley Stevens": 52.2186120869277, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.721967670335919 }, "remaining_sources": [ { "model": "market", "remaining_votes": 0.0, "weight": 0.1780093144963334 } ], "share_sources": [ { "model": "v0", "weight": 0.03630604611298715, "source": "statewide raw" }, { "model": "v3", "weight": 0.06301781787712588, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "market", "weight": 0.18729675699179427, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "histgeo", "weight": 0.02760802595386354, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "latent", "weight": 0.03563066882913146, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "batchbias", "weight": 0.020512372723621893, "source": "statewide fallback" } ], "candidate_benchmarks": { "Abdul El-Sayed": { "opponent": "Haley Stevens", "expected_remaining_share_points": 44.05942024273639, "expected_final_county_share_points": 0.0, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 42.83536582782532, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 42.83536582782532, "required_final_county_share_points": 0.0, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": null, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": false }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 42.83536582782532, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 42.83536582782532, "required_final_county_share_points": 0.0, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 43.48545408349514, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 43.48545408349514, "required_final_county_share_points": 0.0, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.024044322225107804, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999973, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 44.13732671870033, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 44.13732671870033, "required_final_county_share_points": 0.0, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.003259695682198218, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.9999999999999996, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": 1.2240544149110661, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "ABOVE", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.0, "criticality_score": 0.0 }, "Haley Stevens": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 52.2186120869277, "expected_final_county_share_points": 0.0, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 53.44266650183875, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 53.44266650183875, "required_final_county_share_points": 0.0, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": null, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": false }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 53.44266650183875, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 53.44266650183875, "required_final_county_share_points": 0.0, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 54.09097127374333, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 54.09097127374333, "required_final_county_share_points": 0.0, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.07865391656842785, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.999999999999999, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 54.73749347663722, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 54.73749347663722, "required_final_county_share_points": 0.0, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.10597932088248406, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -1.224054414911052, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.0, "criticality_score": 0.0 }, "Mallory McMorrow": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 3.721967670335919, "expected_final_county_share_points": 0.0, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 31.219860722705857, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 31.219860722705857, "required_final_county_share_points": 0.0, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": null, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": false }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 31.219860722705857, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 31.219860722705857, "required_final_county_share_points": 0.0, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 31.796703674934328, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 31.796703674934328, "required_final_county_share_points": 0.0, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.159018308558073, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999906, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 32.37210310041463, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 32.37210310041463, "required_final_county_share_points": 0.0, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.213613509684069, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.999999999999993, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -27.49789305236994, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "WELL BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.0, "criticality_score": 0.0 } } } ], "method_note": "A county's headline win benchmark is a distributed statewide path: V6 solves the common candidate-vs-opponent log-odds swing across all remaining counties required for a statewide tie, then translates that path into a target share for each county. A separate single-county break-even diagnostic is retained for leverage analysis. All benchmarks recalculate after every dump.", "monte_carlo_benchmark_context": { "reference_candidate": "Abdul El-Sayed", "signed_margin_p10": -0.7209907602907051, "signed_margin_median": 2.2142350911356914, "signed_margin_p90": 5.11662886049802, "approx_margin_sigma_points": 2.277559396647456, "note": "50/80/90% county probability benchmarks use a normal approximation to the signed statewide Monte Carlo margin distribution. They are scenario guides, while the tie benchmark is exact conditional on the deterministic expectations elsewhere." } }, "benchmark_signal": { "available": true, "favored_candidate": "Abdul El-Sayed", "least_favored_candidate": "Mallory McMorrow", "evidence": 0.6671350391989715, "favored_signal_score": 0.03915837526743363, "favored_weighted_excess_points": 0.6016278877844345, "favored_breadth_balance": -0.23076923076923078, "candidates": { "Abdul El-Sayed": { "weighted_excess_points": 0.6016278877844345, "above_benchmark_counties": 18, "below_benchmark_counties": 30, "on_benchmark_counties": 4, "unique_counties": 37, "unique_markets": 7, "votes_scored": 37949.0, "breadth_balance": -0.23076923076923078, "evidence": 0.6671350391989715, "signal_score": 0.03915837526743363 }, "Haley Stevens": { "weighted_excess_points": -0.8565954088812535, "above_benchmark_counties": 28, "below_benchmark_counties": 18, "on_benchmark_counties": 6, "unique_counties": 37, "unique_markets": 7, "votes_scored": 37949.0, "breadth_balance": 0.19230769230769232, "evidence": 0.6671350391989715, "signal_score": -0.08767358497472703 }, "Mallory McMorrow": { "weighted_excess_points": -29.590177532489776, "above_benchmark_counties": 0, "below_benchmark_counties": 52, "on_benchmark_counties": 0, "unique_counties": 37, "unique_markets": 7, "votes_scored": 37949.0, "breadth_balance": -1.0, "evidence": 0.6671350391989715, "signal_score": -0.667135039155625 } }, "intervals": [ { "from_snapshot": 44, "to_snapshot": 45, "new_votes": 10283, "changed_counties": 13, "benchmark_observations_scored": 39 }, { "from_snapshot": 45, "to_snapshot": 46, "new_votes": 8299, "changed_counties": 14, "benchmark_observations_scored": 42 }, { "from_snapshot": 46, "to_snapshot": 47, "new_votes": 12360, "changed_counties": 12, "benchmark_observations_scored": 36 }, { "from_snapshot": 47, "to_snapshot": 48, "new_votes": 7007, "changed_counties": 13, "benchmark_observations_scored": 39 } ], "method_note": "V6 rebuilds county tie benchmarks and the preliminary expert gate exactly as they existed at each prior snapshot, then grades only later-arriving vote. Broad, repeated benchmark beats across independent counties are stronger evidence than one friendly dump." }, "crossover_consensus": { "available": false, "raw_leader": "Abdul El-Sayed", "candidate": null, "eligible": false, "score": 0.0, "independent_families": 0, "candidates": {} }, "horizon_validation": { "v0": { "short_path_quality": 0.5960141637281827, "short_path_evidence": 0.6090081831189499, "maturation_quality": 0.21548795659162212, "maturation_evidence": 1.0, "specialist_exam": { "available": false, "score": 0.0, "mae_points": null, "evidence": 0.0, "exam": null }, "final_quality": 0.21548795659162212, "final_evidence": 1.0, "residual_mae_points": 6.906826155985889 }, "v1": { "short_path_quality": 0.589254528735769, "short_path_evidence": 0.5898586588970036, "maturation_quality": 0.3374278868570438, "maturation_evidence": 0.7700863821896933, "specialist_exam": { "available": false, "score": 0.0, "mae_points": null, "evidence": 0.0, "exam": null }, "final_quality": 0.3374278868570438, "final_evidence": 0.7700863821896933, "residual_mae_points": 5.82642525665127 }, "v3": { "short_path_quality": 0.6700150915938691, "short_path_evidence": 0.6090081831189499, "maturation_quality": 0.2492213710187745, "maturation_evidence": 1.0, "specialist_exam": { "available": false, "score": 0.0, "mae_points": null, "evidence": 0.0, "exam": null }, "final_quality": 0.2492213710187745, "final_evidence": 1.0, "residual_mae_points": 6.252361817596126 }, "market": { "short_path_quality": 0.55, "short_path_evidence": 0.0, "maturation_quality": 0.55, "maturation_evidence": 0.0, "specialist_exam": { "available": false, "score": 0.0, "mae_points": null, "evidence": 0.0, "exam": null }, "final_quality": 0.55, "final_evidence": 0.0, "residual_mae_points": 6.0 }, "histgeo": { "short_path_quality": 0.6781502087045048, "short_path_evidence": 0.6090081831189499, "maturation_quality": 0.2615765604883897, "maturation_evidence": 1.0, "specialist_exam": { "available": true, "score": 0.4821328465755259, "mae_points": 4.012445731824946, "evidence": 1.0, "exam": "held-out historical coalition geography" }, "final_quality": 0.32774344631453056, "final_evidence": 1.0, "residual_mae_points": 5.023536459896757 }, "latent": { "short_path_quality": 0.6811748538733077, "short_path_evidence": 0.6090081831189499, "maturation_quality": 0.25924045130541196, "maturation_evidence": 1.0, "specialist_exam": { "available": true, "score": 0.3705514209458427, "mae_points": 4.9638152794908645, "evidence": 1.0, "exam": "held-out latent coalition factors" }, "final_quality": 0.2926337421975412, "final_evidence": 1.0, "residual_mae_points": 5.5194059849725114 }, "batchbias": { "short_path_quality": 0.49451026475286897, "short_path_evidence": 0.35144885730913816, "maturation_quality": 0.37398107276058357, "maturation_evidence": 0.501359732061591, "specialist_exam": { "available": true, "score": 0.18341567350639373, "mae_points": 9.328001441192093, "evidence": 0.37665726543829686, "exam": "prior-batch residual validation" }, "final_quality": 0.3891476654023228, "final_evidence": 0.6891762118206919, "residual_mae_points": 8.151088001290569 } }, "completion_referee": { "available": true, "span_snapshots": 9, "windows": [ { "from_snapshot": 12, "from_filename": "12.json", "to_snapshot": 21, "to_filename": "21.json", "span_snapshots": 9, "matured_votes": 180596, "matured_counties": 11, "correction_votes": 0, "predictions": { "v0": { "available": true, "mae_points": 9.418701527230363, "counties_scored": 11, "counties_skipped_noninformative": 0, "informative_votes": 180596.0, "informative_vote_coverage": 1.0, "county_examples": [ { "cid": "fips:26125", "county": "Oakland", "new_votes": 142424, "reporting_advance_points": 60.38, "source": "statewide live scoreboard", "geography_level": "statewide", "effective_sample_votes": 74171, "expected_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 62.678135659489556, "Haley Stevens": 34.024079491984736, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.297784848525704 }, "actual_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 47.67595349098466, "Haley Stevens": 49.67280795371566, "Mallory McMorrow": 2.6512385552996687 }, "mae_points": 10.432485641153951 }, { "cid": "fips:26099", "county": "Macomb", "new_votes": 8532, "reporting_advance_points": 7.399999999999999, "source": "statewide live scoreboard", "geography_level": "statewide", "effective_sample_votes": 74171, "expected_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 62.678135659489556, "Haley Stevens": 34.024079491984736, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.297784848525704 }, "actual_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 53.17627754336615, "Haley Stevens": 43.459915611814345, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.363806844819503 }, "mae_points": 6.334572077415605 }, { "cid": "fips:26161", "county": "Washtenaw", "new_votes": 8116, "reporting_advance_points": 8.939999999999992, "source": "statewide live scoreboard", "geography_level": "statewide", "effective_sample_votes": 74171, "expected_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 62.678135659489556, "Haley Stevens": 34.024079491984736, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.297784848525704 }, "actual_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 62.51848201084278, "Haley Stevens": 34.36421882700838, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.1172991621488415 }, "mae_points": 0.2267595566824262 }, { "cid": "fips:26093", "county": "Livingston", "new_votes": 7895, "reporting_advance_points": 33.32999999999999, "source": "statewide live scoreboard", "geography_level": "statewide", "effective_sample_votes": 74171, "expected_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 62.678135659489556, "Haley Stevens": 34.024079491984736, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.297784848525704 }, "actual_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 48.777707409753006, "Haley Stevens": 47.66307789740342, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.559214692843572 }, "mae_points": 9.266952166491032 }, { "cid": "fips:26163", "county": "Wayne", "new_votes": 4352, "reporting_advance_points": 1.43, "source": "statewide live scoreboard", "geography_level": "statewide", "effective_sample_votes": 74171, "expected_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 62.678135659489556, "Haley Stevens": 34.024079491984736, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.297784848525704 }, "actual_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 46.25459558823529, "Haley Stevens": 51.01102941176471, "Mallory McMorrow": 2.734375 }, "mae_points": 11.324633279853312 }, { "cid": "fips:26149", "county": "St. Joseph", "new_votes": 4028, "reporting_advance_points": 96.71, "source": "statewide live scoreboard", "geography_level": "statewide", "effective_sample_votes": 74171, "expected_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 62.678135659489556, "Haley Stevens": 34.024079491984736, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.297784848525704 }, "actual_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 46.32571996027806, "Haley Stevens": 47.96425024826216, "Mallory McMorrow": 5.710029791459782 }, "mae_points": 10.901610466141 }, { "cid": "fips:26045", "county": "Eaton", "new_votes": 2299, "reporting_advance_points": 14.06, "source": "statewide live scoreboard", "geography_level": "statewide", "effective_sample_votes": 74171, "expected_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 62.678135659489556, "Haley Stevens": 34.024079491984736, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.297784848525704 }, "actual_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 43.01870378425402, "Haley Stevens": 50.84819486733362, "Mallory McMorrow": 6.133101348412353 }, "mae_points": 13.106287916823685 }, { "cid": "fips:26041", "county": "Delta", "new_votes": 1299, "reporting_advance_points": 31.46, "source": "statewide live scoreboard", "geography_level": "statewide", "effective_sample_votes": 74171, "expected_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 62.678135659489556, "Haley Stevens": 34.024079491984736, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.297784848525704 }, "actual_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 47.57505773672055, "Haley Stevens": 44.80369515011547, "Mallory McMorrow": 7.621247113163972 }, "mae_points": 10.068718615179334 }, { "cid": "fips:26069", "county": "Iosco", "new_votes": 908, "reporting_advance_points": 29.439999999999998, "source": "statewide live scoreboard", "geography_level": "statewide", "effective_sample_votes": 74171, "expected_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 62.678135659489556, "Haley Stevens": 34.024079491984736, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.297784848525704 }, "actual_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 37.44493392070485, "Haley Stevens": 54.40528634361234, "Mallory McMorrow": 8.149779735682818 }, "mae_points": 16.82213449252314 }, { "cid": "fips:26123", "county": "Newaygo", "new_votes": 474, "reporting_advance_points": 11.7, "source": "statewide live scoreboard", "geography_level": "statewide", "effective_sample_votes": 74171, "expected_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 62.678135659489556, "Haley Stevens": 34.024079491984736, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.297784848525704 }, "actual_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 38.607594936708864, "Haley Stevens": 56.118143459915615, "Mallory McMorrow": 5.274261603375527 }, "mae_points": 16.047027148520463 }, { "cid": "fips:26079", "county": "Kalkaska", "new_votes": 269, "reporting_advance_points": 16.32, "source": "statewide live scoreboard", "geography_level": "statewide", "effective_sample_votes": 74171, "expected_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 62.678135659489556, "Haley Stevens": 34.024079491984736, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.297784848525704 }, "actual_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 51.301115241635685, "Haley Stevens": 45.353159851301115, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.3457249070631967 }, "mae_points": 7.584680278569246 } ] }, "v1": { "available": true, "mae_points": 5.853495235349322, "counties_scored": 6, "counties_skipped_noninformative": 5, "informative_votes": 32493.0, "informative_vote_coverage": 0.17992092848125096, "county_examples": [ { "cid": "fips:26099", "county": "Macomb", "new_votes": 8532, "reporting_advance_points": 7.399999999999999, "source": "county live share", "geography_level": "county", "effective_sample_votes": 2925, "expected_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 61.36752136752137, "Haley Stevens": 36.51282051282052, "Mallory McMorrow": 2.1196581196581197 }, "actual_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 53.17627754336615, "Haley Stevens": 43.459915611814345, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.363806844819503 }, "mae_points": 5.46082921610348 }, { "cid": "fips:26161", "county": "Washtenaw", "new_votes": 8116, "reporting_advance_points": 8.939999999999992, "source": "county live share", "geography_level": "county", "effective_sample_votes": 39944, "expected_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 68.01021430002004, "Haley Stevens": 29.99198878429802, "Mallory McMorrow": 1.9977969156819548 }, "actual_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 62.51848201084278, "Haley Stevens": 34.36421882700838, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.1172991621488415 }, "mae_points": 3.661154859451501 }, { "cid": "fips:26093", "county": "Livingston", "new_votes": 7895, "reporting_advance_points": 33.32999999999999, "source": "county live share", "geography_level": "county", "effective_sample_votes": 6305, "expected_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 61.427438540840605, "Haley Stevens": 35.590800951625695, "Mallory McMorrow": 2.9817605075337035 }, "actual_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 48.777707409753006, "Haley Stevens": 47.66307789740342, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.559214692843572 }, "mae_points": 8.433154087391731 }, { "cid": "fips:26163", "county": "Wayne", "new_votes": 4352, "reporting_advance_points": 1.43, "source": "county live share", "geography_level": "county", "effective_sample_votes": 316, "expected_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 55.69620253164557, "Haley Stevens": 41.77215189873418, "Mallory McMorrow": 2.5316455696202533 }, "actual_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 46.25459558823529, "Haley Stevens": 51.01102941176471, "Mallory McMorrow": 2.734375 }, "mae_points": 6.294404628940184 }, { "cid": "fips:26045", "county": "Eaton", "new_votes": 2299, "reporting_advance_points": 14.06, "source": "county live share", "geography_level": "county", "effective_sample_votes": 7828, "expected_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 54.29228410832907, "Haley Stevens": 40.77669902912621, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.931016862544711 }, "actual_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 43.01870378425402, "Haley Stevens": 50.84819486733362, "Mallory McMorrow": 6.133101348412353 }, "mae_points": 7.51572021605003 }, { "cid": "fips:26041", "county": "Delta", "new_votes": 1299, "reporting_advance_points": 31.46, "source": "county live share", "geography_level": "county", "effective_sample_votes": 674, "expected_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 42.87833827893175, "Haley Stevens": 45.25222551928783, "Mallory McMorrow": 11.869436201780417 }, "actual_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 47.57505773672055, "Haley Stevens": 44.80369515011547, "Mallory McMorrow": 7.621247113163972 }, "mae_points": 3.1311463051925372 } ] }, "v3": { "available": true, "mae_points": 9.177401507096617, "counties_scored": 11, "counties_skipped_noninformative": 0, "informative_votes": 180596.0, "informative_vote_coverage": 1.0, "county_examples": [ { "cid": "fips:26125", "county": "Oakland", "new_votes": 142424, "reporting_advance_points": 60.38, "source": "v3 county remaining-vote prediction", "geography_level": "county", "effective_sample_votes": 0, "expected_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 62.678135659489556, "Haley Stevens": 34.024079491984736, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.297784848525704 }, "actual_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 47.67595349098466, "Haley Stevens": 49.67280795371566, "Mallory McMorrow": 2.6512385552996687 }, "mae_points": 10.432485641153951 }, { "cid": "fips:26099", "county": "Macomb", "new_votes": 8532, "reporting_advance_points": 7.399999999999999, "source": "v3 county remaining-vote prediction", "geography_level": "county", "effective_sample_votes": 2925, "expected_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 62.46925811285826, "Haley Stevens": 34.42071954224099, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.11002234490074 }, "actual_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 53.17627754336615, "Haley Stevens": 43.459915611814345, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.363806844819503 }, "mae_points": 6.195320379661412 }, { "cid": "fips:26161", "county": "Washtenaw", "new_votes": 8116, "reporting_advance_points": 8.939999999999992, "source": "v3 county remaining-vote prediction", "geography_level": "county", "effective_sample_votes": 39944, "expected_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 66.21624205634384, "Haley Stevens": 31.34858145691753, "Mallory McMorrow": 2.4351764867386287 }, "actual_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 62.51848201084278, "Haley Stevens": 34.36421882700838, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.1172991621488415 }, "mae_points": 2.4651733636673763 }, { "cid": "fips:26093", "county": "Livingston", "new_votes": 7895, "reporting_advance_points": 33.32999999999999, "source": "v3 county remaining-vote prediction", "geography_level": "county", "effective_sample_votes": 6305, "expected_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 62.032965032834085, "Haley Stevens": 34.83227090047142, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.1347640666944976 }, "actual_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 48.777707409753006, "Haley Stevens": 47.66307789740342, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.559214692843572 }, "mae_points": 8.836838415387387 }, { "cid": "fips:26163", "county": "Wayne", "new_votes": 4352, "reporting_advance_points": 1.43, "source": "v3 county remaining-vote prediction", "geography_level": "county", "effective_sample_votes": 316, "expected_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 62.45734754793985, "Haley Stevens": 34.26909505479705, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.2735573972631022 }, "actual_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 46.25459558823529, "Haley Stevens": 51.01102941176471, "Mallory McMorrow": 2.734375 }, "mae_points": 11.161289571311773 }, { "cid": "fips:26149", "county": "St. Joseph", "new_votes": 4028, "reporting_advance_points": 96.71, "source": "v3 county remaining-vote prediction", "geography_level": "county", "effective_sample_votes": 0, "expected_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 62.678135659489556, "Haley Stevens": 34.024079491984736, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.297784848525704 }, "actual_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 46.32571996027806, "Haley Stevens": 47.96425024826216, "Mallory McMorrow": 5.710029791459782 }, "mae_points": 10.901610466141 }, { "cid": "fips:26045", "county": "Eaton", "new_votes": 2299, "reporting_advance_points": 14.06, "source": "v3 county remaining-vote prediction", "geography_level": "county", "effective_sample_votes": 7828, "expected_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 56.87672621991757, "Haley Stevens": 38.69560396217281, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.427669817909622 }, "actual_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 43.01870378425402, "Haley Stevens": 50.84819486733362, "Mallory McMorrow": 6.133101348412353 }, "mae_points": 9.238681623775696 }, { "cid": "fips:26041", "county": "Delta", "new_votes": 1299, "reporting_advance_points": 31.46, "source": "v3 county remaining-vote prediction", "geography_level": "county", "effective_sample_votes": 674, "expected_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 54.679409602549065, "Haley Stevens": 38.56002814204067, "Mallory McMorrow": 6.760562255410261 }, "actual_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 47.57505773672055, "Haley Stevens": 44.80369515011547, "Mallory McMorrow": 7.621247113163972 }, "mae_points": 4.736234577219009 }, { "cid": "fips:26069", "county": "Iosco", "new_votes": 908, "reporting_advance_points": 29.439999999999998, "source": "v3 county remaining-vote prediction", "geography_level": "county", "effective_sample_votes": 0, "expected_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 62.678135659489556, "Haley Stevens": 34.024079491984736, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.297784848525704 }, "actual_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 37.44493392070485, "Haley Stevens": 54.40528634361234, "Mallory McMorrow": 8.149779735682818 }, "mae_points": 16.82213449252314 }, { "cid": "fips:26123", "county": "Newaygo", "new_votes": 474, "reporting_advance_points": 11.7, "source": "v3 county remaining-vote prediction", "geography_level": "county", "effective_sample_votes": 0, "expected_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 62.678135659489556, "Haley Stevens": 34.024079491984736, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.297784848525704 }, "actual_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 38.607594936708864, "Haley Stevens": 56.118143459915615, "Mallory McMorrow": 5.274261603375527 }, "mae_points": 16.047027148520463 }, { "cid": "fips:26079", "county": "Kalkaska", "new_votes": 269, "reporting_advance_points": 16.32, "source": "v3 county remaining-vote prediction", "geography_level": "county", "effective_sample_votes": 0, "expected_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 62.678135659489556, "Haley Stevens": 34.024079491984736, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.297784848525704 }, "actual_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 51.301115241635685, "Haley Stevens": 45.353159851301115, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.3457249070631967 }, "mae_points": 7.584680278569246 } ] }, "market": { "available": false, "counties_scored": 0, "counties_skipped_noninformative": 11, "informative_vote_coverage": 0.0 }, "histgeo": { "available": true, "mae_points": 9.012792507263468, "counties_scored": 11, "counties_skipped_noninformative": 0, "informative_votes": 180596.0, "informative_vote_coverage": 1.0, "county_examples": [ { "cid": "fips:26125", "county": "Oakland", "new_votes": 142424, "reporting_advance_points": 60.38, "source": "histgeo county remaining-vote prediction", "geography_level": "county", "effective_sample_votes": 0, "expected_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 62.35471810455508, "Haley Stevens": 34.25283336425182, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.3924485311930854 }, "actual_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 47.67595349098466, "Haley Stevens": 49.67280795371566, "Mallory McMorrow": 2.6512385552996687 }, "mae_points": 10.279983059642559 }, { "cid": "fips:26099", "county": "Macomb", "new_votes": 8532, "reporting_advance_points": 7.399999999999999, "source": "histgeo county remaining-vote prediction", "geography_level": "county", "effective_sample_votes": 2925, "expected_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 62.200959224882105, "Haley Stevens": 34.60536316370311, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.1936776114147887 }, "actual_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 53.17627754336615, "Haley Stevens": 43.459915611814345, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.363806844819503 }, "mae_points": 6.016454454343969 }, { "cid": "fips:26161", "county": "Washtenaw", "new_votes": 8116, "reporting_advance_points": 8.939999999999992, "source": "histgeo county remaining-vote prediction", "geography_level": "county", "effective_sample_votes": 39944, "expected_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 66.27330881959946, "Haley Stevens": 31.30537931619724, "Mallory McMorrow": 2.4213118642033016 }, "actual_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 62.51848201084278, "Haley Stevens": 34.36421882700838, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.1172991621488415 }, "mae_points": 2.5032178725044543 }, { "cid": "fips:26093", "county": "Livingston", "new_votes": 7895, "reporting_advance_points": 33.32999999999999, "source": "histgeo county remaining-vote prediction", "geography_level": "county", "effective_sample_votes": 6305, "expected_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 61.8791828370274, "Haley Stevens": 34.94560409386152, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.1752130691110816 }, "actual_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 48.777707409753006, "Haley Stevens": 47.66307789740342, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.559214692843572 }, "mae_points": 8.734316951516263 }, { "cid": "fips:26163", "county": "Wayne", "new_votes": 4352, "reporting_advance_points": 1.43, "source": "histgeo county remaining-vote prediction", "geography_level": "county", "effective_sample_votes": 316, "expected_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 62.19109946086977, "Haley Stevens": 34.4275448553038, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.3813556838264347 }, "actual_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 46.25459558823529, "Haley Stevens": 51.01102941176471, "Mallory McMorrow": 2.734375 }, "mae_points": 11.055656370973942 }, { "cid": "fips:26149", "county": "St. Joseph", "new_votes": 4028, "reporting_advance_points": 96.71, "source": "histgeo county remaining-vote prediction", "geography_level": "county", "effective_sample_votes": 0, "expected_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 62.19339258623019, "Haley Stevens": 34.351602266784745, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.4550051469850676 }, "actual_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 46.32571996027806, "Haley Stevens": 47.96425024826216, "Mallory McMorrow": 5.710029791459782 }, "mae_points": 10.578448417301422 }, { "cid": "fips:26045", "county": "Eaton", "new_votes": 2299, "reporting_advance_points": 14.06, "source": "histgeo county remaining-vote prediction", "geography_level": "county", "effective_sample_votes": 7828, "expected_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 56.685762821702156, "Haley Stevens": 38.82997529019242, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.484261888105426 }, "actual_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 43.01870378425402, "Haley Stevens": 50.84819486733362, "Mallory McMorrow": 6.133101348412353 }, "mae_points": 9.111372691632086 }, { "cid": "fips:26041", "county": "Delta", "new_votes": 1299, "reporting_advance_points": 31.46, "source": "histgeo county remaining-vote prediction", "geography_level": "county", "effective_sample_votes": 674, "expected_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 54.188978788271456, "Haley Stevens": 38.89258385695521, "Mallory McMorrow": 6.918437354773332 }, "actual_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 47.57505773672055, "Haley Stevens": 44.80369515011547, "Mallory McMorrow": 7.621247113163972 }, "mae_points": 4.409280701033933 }, { "cid": "fips:26069", "county": "Iosco", "new_votes": 908, "reporting_advance_points": 29.439999999999998, "source": "histgeo county remaining-vote prediction", "geography_level": "county", "effective_sample_votes": 0, "expected_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 61.91489696305654, "Haley Stevens": 34.560508238946184, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.52459479799727 }, "actual_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 37.44493392070485, "Haley Stevens": 54.40528634361234, "Mallory McMorrow": 8.149779735682818 }, "mae_points": 16.31330869490113 }, { "cid": "fips:26123", "county": "Newaygo", "new_votes": 474, "reporting_advance_points": 11.7, "source": "histgeo county remaining-vote prediction", "geography_level": "county", "effective_sample_votes": 0, "expected_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 62.13265376607393, "Haley Stevens": 34.397604613511795, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.4697416204142724 }, "actual_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 38.607594936708864, "Haley Stevens": 56.118143459915615, "Mallory McMorrow": 5.274261603375527 }, "mae_points": 15.683372552910049 }, { "cid": "fips:26079", "county": "Kalkaska", "new_votes": 269, "reporting_advance_points": 16.32, "source": "histgeo county remaining-vote prediction", "geography_level": "county", "effective_sample_votes": 0, "expected_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 62.14034708726275, "Haley Stevens": 34.401186399499565, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.45846651323768 }, "actual_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 51.301115241635685, "Haley Stevens": 45.353159851301115, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.3457249070631967 }, "mae_points": 7.301315634534365 } ] }, "latent": { "available": true, "mae_points": 8.962112876990844, "counties_scored": 11, "counties_skipped_noninformative": 0, "informative_votes": 180596.0, "informative_vote_coverage": 1.0, "county_examples": [ { "cid": "fips:26125", "county": "Oakland", "new_votes": 142424, "reporting_advance_points": 60.38, "source": "latent county remaining-vote prediction", "geography_level": "county", "effective_sample_votes": 0, "expected_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 62.18755472934843, "Haley Stevens": 34.352415187583894, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.460030083067678 }, "actual_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 47.67595349098466, "Haley Stevens": 49.67280795371566, "Mallory McMorrow": 2.6512385552996687 }, "mae_points": 10.213595177421182 }, { "cid": "fips:26099", "county": "Macomb", "new_votes": 8532, "reporting_advance_points": 7.399999999999999, "source": "latent county remaining-vote prediction", "geography_level": "county", "effective_sample_votes": 2925, "expected_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 62.06050274805214, "Haley Stevens": 34.69396389917067, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.2455333527771995 }, "actual_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 53.17627754336615, "Haley Stevens": 43.459915611814345, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.363806844819503 }, "mae_points": 5.9228168031239905 }, { "cid": "fips:26161", "county": "Washtenaw", "new_votes": 8116, "reporting_advance_points": 8.939999999999992, "source": "latent county remaining-vote prediction", "geography_level": "county", "effective_sample_votes": 39944, "expected_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 66.06468496547436, "Haley Stevens": 31.448802156272727, "Mallory McMorrow": 2.4865128782529236 }, "actual_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 62.51848201084278, "Haley Stevens": 34.36421882700838, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.1172991621488415 }, "mae_points": 2.364135303087715 }, { "cid": "fips:26093", "county": "Livingston", "new_votes": 7895, "reporting_advance_points": 33.32999999999999, "source": "latent county remaining-vote prediction", "geography_level": "county", "effective_sample_votes": 6305, "expected_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 61.78760378386949, "Haley Stevens": 34.997191373038916, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.2152048430915916 }, "actual_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 48.777707409753006, "Haley Stevens": 47.66307789740342, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.559214692843572 }, "mae_points": 8.673264249410991 }, { "cid": "fips:26163", "county": "Wayne", "new_votes": 4352, "reporting_advance_points": 1.43, "source": "latent county remaining-vote prediction", "geography_level": "county", "effective_sample_votes": 316, "expected_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 62.01211492363002, "Haley Stevens": 34.56439828659853, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.423486789771453 }, "actual_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 46.25459558823529, "Haley Stevens": 51.01102941176471, "Mallory McMorrow": 2.734375 }, "mae_points": 10.964420750110786 }, { "cid": "fips:26149", "county": "St. Joseph", "new_votes": 4028, "reporting_advance_points": 96.71, "source": "latent county remaining-vote prediction", "geography_level": "county", "effective_sample_votes": 0, "expected_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 62.18533944577723, "Haley Stevens": 34.35409695784562, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.4605635963771504 }, "actual_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 46.32571996027806, "Haley Stevens": 47.96425024826216, "Mallory McMorrow": 5.710029791459782 }, "mae_points": 10.57307965699945 }, { "cid": "fips:26045", "county": "Eaton", "new_votes": 2299, "reporting_advance_points": 14.06, "source": "latent county remaining-vote prediction", "geography_level": "county", "effective_sample_votes": 7828, "expected_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 56.716288061151424, "Haley Stevens": 38.80381298094454, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.479898957904034 }, "actual_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 43.01870378425402, "Haley Stevens": 50.84819486733362, "Mallory McMorrow": 6.133101348412353 }, "mae_points": 9.13172285126493 }, { "cid": "fips:26041", "county": "Delta", "new_votes": 1299, "reporting_advance_points": 31.46, "source": "latent county remaining-vote prediction", "geography_level": "county", "effective_sample_votes": 674, "expected_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 54.37532622680563, "Haley Stevens": 38.76459542753074, "Mallory McMorrow": 6.8600783456636325 }, "actual_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 47.57505773672055, "Haley Stevens": 44.80369515011547, "Mallory McMorrow": 7.621247113163972 }, "mae_points": 4.533512326723382 }, { "cid": "fips:26069", "county": "Iosco", "new_votes": 908, "reporting_advance_points": 29.439999999999998, "source": "latent county remaining-vote prediction", "geography_level": "county", "effective_sample_votes": 0, "expected_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 62.14838440322886, "Haley Stevens": 34.38215200794697, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.4694635888241634 }, "actual_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 37.44493392070485, "Haley Stevens": 54.40528634361234, "Mallory McMorrow": 8.149779735682818 }, "mae_points": 16.468966988349347 }, { "cid": "fips:26123", "county": "Newaygo", "new_votes": 474, "reporting_advance_points": 11.7, "source": "latent county remaining-vote prediction", "geography_level": "county", "effective_sample_votes": 0, "expected_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 62.173681194318696, "Haley Stevens": 34.362947518045495, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.4633712876358045 }, "actual_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 38.607594936708864, "Haley Stevens": 56.118143459915615, "Mallory McMorrow": 5.274261603375527 }, "mae_points": 15.710724171739892 }, { "cid": "fips:26079", "county": "Kalkaska", "new_votes": 269, "reporting_advance_points": 16.32, "source": "latent county remaining-vote prediction", "geography_level": "county", "effective_sample_votes": 0, "expected_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 62.169707703264734, "Haley Stevens": 34.36596406146985, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.4643282352654086 }, "actual_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 51.301115241635685, "Haley Stevens": 45.353159851301115, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.3457249070631967 }, "mae_points": 7.324797193220839 } ] }, "batchbias": { "available": true, "mae_points": 6.253714117332525, "counties_scored": 2, "counties_skipped_noninformative": 9, "informative_votes": 10831.0, "informative_vote_coverage": 0.05997364282708366, "county_examples": [ { "cid": "fips:26099", "county": "Macomb", "new_votes": 8532, "reporting_advance_points": 7.399999999999999, "source": "batchbias county remaining-vote prediction", "geography_level": "county", "effective_sample_votes": 2925, "expected_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 63.23432884395004, "Haley Stevens": 33.568608961043196, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.1970621950067715 }, "actual_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 53.17627754336615, "Haley Stevens": 43.459915611814345, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.363806844819503 }, "mae_points": 6.705367533722592 }, { "cid": "fips:26045", "county": "Eaton", "new_votes": 2299, "reporting_advance_points": 14.06, "source": "batchbias county remaining-vote prediction", "geography_level": "county", "effective_sample_votes": 7828, "expected_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 50.9858659612728, "Haley Stevens": 43.47195049553021, "Mallory McMorrow": 5.542183543196992 }, "actual_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 43.01870378425402, "Haley Stevens": 50.84819486733362, "Mallory McMorrow": 6.133101348412353 }, "mae_points": 5.311441451345849 } ] } } }, { "from_snapshot": 21, "from_filename": "21.json", "to_snapshot": 30, "to_filename": "30.json", "span_snapshots": 9, "matured_votes": 65710, "matured_counties": 22, "correction_votes": 0, "predictions": { "v0": { "available": true, "mae_points": 5.231705231910092, "counties_scored": 22, "counties_skipped_noninformative": 0, "informative_votes": 65710.0, "informative_vote_coverage": 1.0, "county_examples": [ { "cid": "fips:26125", "county": "Oakland", "new_votes": 23701, "reporting_advance_points": 6.620000000000004, "source": "statewide live scoreboard", "geography_level": "statewide", "effective_sample_votes": 257355, "expected_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 52.60282489168658, "Haley Stevens": 44.33642245147753, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.060752656835888 }, "actual_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 48.20049786928821, "Haley Stevens": 49.07809797054977, "Mallory McMorrow": 2.7214041601620185 }, "mae_points": 3.161117012714824 }, { "cid": "fips:26161", "county": "Washtenaw", "new_votes": 10867, "reporting_advance_points": 11.980000000000013, "source": "statewide live scoreboard", "geography_level": "statewide", "effective_sample_votes": 257355, "expected_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 52.60282489168658, "Haley Stevens": 44.33642245147753, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.060752656835888 }, "actual_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 50.87880739854606, "Haley Stevens": 41.53860311033404, "Mallory McMorrow": 7.582589491119903 }, "mae_points": 3.0145578895226786 }, { "cid": "fips:26099", "county": "Macomb", "new_votes": 4908, "reporting_advance_points": 4.26, "source": "statewide live scoreboard", "geography_level": "statewide", "effective_sample_votes": 257355, "expected_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 52.60282489168658, "Haley Stevens": 44.33642245147753, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.060752656835888 }, "actual_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 60.411572942135294, "Haley Stevens": 37.286063569682156, "Mallory McMorrow": 2.302363488182559 }, "mae_points": 5.205832033632472 }, { "cid": "fips:26093", "county": "Livingston", "new_votes": 4600, "reporting_advance_points": 10.680000000000012, "source": "statewide live scoreboard", "geography_level": "statewide", "effective_sample_votes": 257355, "expected_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 52.60282489168658, "Haley Stevens": 44.33642245147753, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.060752656835888 }, "actual_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 39.108695652173914, "Haley Stevens": 55.02173913043479, "Mallory McMorrow": 5.869565217391305 }, "mae_points": 8.996086159675116 }, { "cid": "fips:26067", "county": "Ionia", "new_votes": 4029, "reporting_advance_points": 83.69, "source": "statewide live scoreboard", "geography_level": "statewide", "effective_sample_votes": 257355, "expected_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 52.60282489168658, "Haley Stevens": 44.33642245147753, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.060752656835888 }, "actual_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 46.51278232812112, "Haley Stevens": 49.640109208240254, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.8471084636386204 }, "mae_points": 4.060028375710307 }, { "cid": "fips:26045", "county": "Eaton", "new_votes": 3567, "reporting_advance_points": 21.810000000000006, "source": "statewide live scoreboard", "geography_level": "statewide", "effective_sample_votes": 257355, "expected_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 52.60282489168658, "Haley Stevens": 44.33642245147753, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.060752656835888 }, "actual_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 39.977572189515, "Haley Stevens": 52.7614241659658, "Mallory McMorrow": 7.261003644519204 }, "mae_points": 8.416835134781058 }, { "cid": "fips:26163", "county": "Wayne", "new_votes": 2715, "reporting_advance_points": 0.9000000000000001, "source": "statewide live scoreboard", "geography_level": "statewide", "effective_sample_votes": 257355, "expected_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 52.60282489168658, "Haley Stevens": 44.33642245147753, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.060752656835888 }, "actual_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 40.0, "Haley Stevens": 56.86924493554327, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.1307550644567224 }, "mae_points": 8.401883261124386 }, { "cid": "fips:26069", "county": "Iosco", "new_votes": 2117, "reporting_advance_points": 44.879999999999995, "source": "statewide live scoreboard", "geography_level": "statewide", "effective_sample_votes": 257355, "expected_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 52.60282489168658, "Haley Stevens": 44.33642245147753, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.060752656835888 }, "actual_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 38.73405762871989, "Haley Stevens": 56.825696740670764, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.440245630609352 }, "mae_points": 9.245844841977798 }, { "cid": "fips:26033", "county": "Chippewa", "new_votes": 1541, "reporting_advance_points": 43.36, "source": "statewide live scoreboard", "geography_level": "statewide", "effective_sample_votes": 257355, "expected_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 52.60282489168658, "Haley Stevens": 44.33642245147753, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.060752656835888 }, "actual_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 49.513303049967554, "Haley Stevens": 43.413367942894226, "Mallory McMorrow": 7.073329007138223 }, "mae_points": 2.6750509002015557 }, { "cid": "fips:26139", "county": "Ottawa", "new_votes": 1351, "reporting_advance_points": 5.41, "source": "statewide live scoreboard", "geography_level": "statewide", "effective_sample_votes": 257355, "expected_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 52.60282489168658, "Haley Stevens": 44.33642245147753, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.060752656835888 }, "actual_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 52.405625462620286, "Haley Stevens": 42.635085122131755, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.959289415247965 }, "mae_points": 1.2656911722747166 }, { "cid": "fips:26027", "county": "Cass", "new_votes": 743, "reporting_advance_points": 23.08, "source": "statewide live scoreboard", "geography_level": "statewide", "effective_sample_votes": 257355, "expected_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 52.60282489168658, "Haley Stevens": 44.33642245147753, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.060752656835888 }, "actual_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 38.22341857335128, "Haley Stevens": 52.35531628532974, "Mallory McMorrow": 9.421265141318976 }, "mae_points": 9.586270878890202 }, { "cid": "fips:26041", "county": "Delta", "new_votes": 735, "reporting_advance_points": 9.229999999999993, "source": "statewide live scoreboard", "geography_level": "statewide", "effective_sample_votes": 257355, "expected_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 52.60282489168658, "Haley Stevens": 44.33642245147753, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.060752656835888 }, "actual_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 45.714285714285715, "Haley Stevens": 45.30612244897959, "Mallory McMorrow": 8.979591836734693 }, "mae_points": 4.592359451600578 } ] }, "v1": { "available": true, "mae_points": 5.391697393939039, "counties_scored": 9, "counties_skipped_noninformative": 13, "informative_votes": 53953.0, "informative_vote_coverage": 0.8210774615735809, "county_examples": [ { "cid": "fips:26125", "county": "Oakland", "new_votes": 23701, "reporting_advance_points": 6.620000000000004, "source": "county live share", "geography_level": "county", "effective_sample_votes": 142424, "expected_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 47.67595349098466, "Haley Stevens": 49.67280795371566, "Mallory McMorrow": 2.6512385552996687 }, "actual_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 48.20049786928821, "Haley Stevens": 49.07809797054977, "Mallory McMorrow": 2.7214041601620185 }, "mae_points": 0.39647332211060055 }, { "cid": "fips:26161", "county": "Washtenaw", "new_votes": 10867, "reporting_advance_points": 11.980000000000013, "source": "county live share", "geography_level": "county", "effective_sample_votes": 48060, "expected_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 67.08281315022889, "Haley Stevens": 30.730337078651687, "Mallory McMorrow": 2.186849771119434 }, "actual_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 50.87880739854606, "Haley Stevens": 41.53860311033404, "Mallory McMorrow": 7.582589491119903 }, "mae_points": 10.802670501121883 }, { "cid": "fips:26099", "county": "Macomb", "new_votes": 4908, "reporting_advance_points": 4.26, "source": "county live share", "geography_level": "county", "effective_sample_votes": 11457, "expected_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 55.26752203892816, "Haley Stevens": 41.686305315527626, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.0461726455442086 }, "actual_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 60.411572942135294, "Haley Stevens": 37.286063569682156, "Mallory McMorrow": 2.302363488182559 }, "mae_points": 3.4293672688047514 }, { "cid": "fips:26093", "county": "Livingston", "new_votes": 4600, "reporting_advance_points": 10.680000000000012, "source": "county live share", "geography_level": "county", "effective_sample_votes": 14200, "expected_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 54.394366197183096, "Haley Stevens": 42.302816901408455, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.302816901408451 }, "actual_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 39.108695652173914, "Haley Stevens": 55.02173913043479, "Mallory McMorrow": 5.869565217391305 }, "mae_points": 10.190447030006125 }, { "cid": "fips:26045", "county": "Eaton", "new_votes": 3567, "reporting_advance_points": 21.810000000000006, "source": "county live share", "geography_level": "county", "effective_sample_votes": 10127, "expected_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 51.732991014120664, "Haley Stevens": 43.0630986471808, "Mallory McMorrow": 5.203910338698528 }, "actual_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 39.977572189515, "Haley Stevens": 52.7614241659658, "Mallory McMorrow": 7.261003644519204 }, "mae_points": 7.836945883070447 }, { "cid": "fips:26163", "county": "Wayne", "new_votes": 2715, "reporting_advance_points": 0.9000000000000001, "source": "county live share", "geography_level": "county", "effective_sample_votes": 4668, "expected_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 46.89374464438732, "Haley Stevens": 50.38560411311054, "Mallory McMorrow": 2.720651242502142 }, "actual_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 40.0, "Haley Stevens": 56.86924493554327, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.1307550644567224 }, "mae_points": 4.595829762924877 }, { "cid": "fips:26069", "county": "Iosco", "new_votes": 2117, "reporting_advance_points": 44.879999999999995, "source": "county live share", "geography_level": "county", "effective_sample_votes": 908, "expected_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 37.44493392070485, "Haley Stevens": 54.40528634361234, "Mallory McMorrow": 8.149779735682818 }, "actual_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 38.73405762871989, "Haley Stevens": 56.825696740670764, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.440245630609352 }, "mae_points": 2.473022736715644 }, { "cid": "fips:26027", "county": "Cass", "new_votes": 743, "reporting_advance_points": 23.08, "source": "county live share", "geography_level": "county", "effective_sample_votes": 173, "expected_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 56.64739884393064, "Haley Stevens": 35.83815028901734, "Mallory McMorrow": 7.514450867052023 }, "actual_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 38.22341857335128, "Haley Stevens": 52.35531628532974, "Mallory McMorrow": 9.421265141318976 }, "mae_points": 12.282653513719573 }, { "cid": "fips:26041", "county": "Delta", "new_votes": 735, "reporting_advance_points": 9.229999999999993, "source": "county live share", "geography_level": "county", "effective_sample_votes": 1973, "expected_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 45.9706031424227, "Haley Stevens": 44.95691839837811, "Mallory McMorrow": 9.07247845919919 }, "actual_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 45.714285714285715, "Haley Stevens": 45.30612244897959, "Mallory McMorrow": 8.979591836734693 }, "mae_points": 0.23280270040099185 } ] }, "v3": { "available": true, "mae_points": 4.999770267836929, "counties_scored": 22, "counties_skipped_noninformative": 0, "informative_votes": 65710.0, "informative_vote_coverage": 1.0, "county_examples": [ { "cid": "fips:26125", "county": "Oakland", "new_votes": 23701, "reporting_advance_points": 6.620000000000004, "source": "v3 county remaining-vote prediction", "geography_level": "county", "effective_sample_votes": 142424, "expected_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 48.774420718369825, "Haley Stevens": 48.48303779124159, "Mallory McMorrow": 2.7425414903885628 }, "actual_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 48.20049786928821, "Haley Stevens": 49.07809797054977, "Mallory McMorrow": 2.7214041601620185 }, "mae_points": 0.3967067862054416 }, { "cid": "fips:26161", "county": "Washtenaw", "new_votes": 10867, "reporting_advance_points": 11.980000000000013, "source": "v3 county remaining-vote prediction", "geography_level": "county", "effective_sample_votes": 48060, "expected_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 63.14143157211625, "Haley Stevens": 34.433846589928194, "Mallory McMorrow": 2.4247218379555604 }, "actual_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 50.87880739854606, "Haley Stevens": 41.53860311033404, "Mallory McMorrow": 7.582589491119903 }, "mae_points": 8.175082782380127 }, { "cid": "fips:26099", "county": "Macomb", "new_votes": 4908, "reporting_advance_points": 4.26, "source": "v3 county remaining-vote prediction", "geography_level": "county", "effective_sample_votes": 11457, "expected_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 53.44294436064314, "Haley Stevens": 43.50089973429686, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.056155905060015 }, "actual_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 60.411572942135294, "Haley Stevens": 37.286063569682156, "Mallory McMorrow": 2.302363488182559 }, "mae_points": 4.645752387661436 }, { "cid": "fips:26093", "county": "Livingston", "new_votes": 4600, "reporting_advance_points": 10.680000000000012, "source": "v3 county remaining-vote prediction", "geography_level": "county", "effective_sample_votes": 14200, "expected_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 53.98985278521668, "Haley Stevens": 42.76198617488737, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.248161039895961 }, "actual_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 39.108695652173914, "Haley Stevens": 55.02173913043479, "Mallory McMorrow": 5.869565217391305 }, "mae_points": 9.920771422028508 }, { "cid": "fips:26067", "county": "Ionia", "new_votes": 4029, "reporting_advance_points": 83.69, "source": "v3 county remaining-vote prediction", "geography_level": "county", "effective_sample_votes": 0, "expected_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 52.60282489168658, "Haley Stevens": 44.33642245147753, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.060752656835888 }, "actual_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 46.51278232812112, "Haley Stevens": 49.640109208240254, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.8471084636386204 }, "mae_points": 4.060028375710307 }, { "cid": "fips:26045", "county": "Eaton", "new_votes": 3567, "reporting_advance_points": 21.810000000000006, "source": "v3 county remaining-vote prediction", "geography_level": "county", "effective_sample_votes": 10127, "expected_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 51.91835903026734, "Haley Stevens": 43.33445334329279, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.74718762643987 }, "actual_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 39.977572189515, "Haley Stevens": 52.7614241659658, "Mallory McMorrow": 7.261003644519204 }, "mae_points": 7.960524560501558 }, { "cid": "fips:26163", "county": "Wayne", "new_votes": 2715, "reporting_advance_points": 0.9000000000000001, "source": "v3 county remaining-vote prediction", "geography_level": "county", "effective_sample_votes": 4668, "expected_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 51.896650665144314, "Haley Stevens": 45.084664899661405, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.018684435194289 }, "actual_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 40.0, "Haley Stevens": 56.86924493554327, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.1307550644567224 }, "mae_points": 7.931100443429539 }, { "cid": "fips:26069", "county": "Iosco", "new_votes": 2117, "reporting_advance_points": 44.879999999999995, "source": "v3 county remaining-vote prediction", "geography_level": "county", "effective_sample_votes": 908, "expected_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 44.37835941861192, "Haley Stevens": 49.799651049208194, "Mallory McMorrow": 5.821989532179883 }, "actual_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 38.73405762871989, "Haley Stevens": 56.825696740670764, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.440245630609352 }, "mae_points": 4.684030460975045 }, { "cid": "fips:26033", "county": "Chippewa", "new_votes": 1541, "reporting_advance_points": 43.36, "source": "v3 county remaining-vote prediction", "geography_level": "county", "effective_sample_votes": 0, "expected_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 52.60282489168658, "Haley Stevens": 44.33642245147753, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.060752656835888 }, "actual_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 49.513303049967554, "Haley Stevens": 43.413367942894226, "Mallory McMorrow": 7.073329007138223 }, "mae_points": 2.675050900201556 }, { "cid": "fips:26139", "county": "Ottawa", "new_votes": 1351, "reporting_advance_points": 5.41, "source": "v3 county remaining-vote prediction", "geography_level": "county", "effective_sample_votes": 0, "expected_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 52.60282489168658, "Haley Stevens": 44.33642245147753, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.060752656835888 }, "actual_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 52.405625462620286, "Haley Stevens": 42.635085122131755, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.959289415247965 }, "mae_points": 1.2656911722747166 }, { "cid": "fips:26027", "county": "Cass", "new_votes": 743, "reporting_advance_points": 23.08, "source": "v3 county remaining-vote prediction", "geography_level": "county", "effective_sample_votes": 173, "expected_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 53.54008454783459, "Haley Stevens": 42.36709570930723, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.09281974285818 }, "actual_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 38.22341857335128, "Haley Stevens": 52.35531628532974, "Mallory McMorrow": 9.421265141318976 }, "mae_points": 10.21111064965554 }, { "cid": "fips:26041", "county": "Delta", "new_votes": 735, "reporting_advance_points": 9.229999999999993, "source": "v3 county remaining-vote prediction", "geography_level": "county", "effective_sample_votes": 1973, "expected_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 48.01842903668593, "Haley Stevens": 44.76532835278149, "Mallory McMorrow": 7.216242610532585 }, "actual_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 45.714285714285715, "Haley Stevens": 45.30612244897959, "Mallory McMorrow": 8.979591836734693 }, "mae_points": 1.5360955482668115 } ] }, "market": { "available": false, "counties_scored": 0, "counties_skipped_noninformative": 22, "informative_vote_coverage": 0.0 }, "histgeo": { "available": true, "mae_points": 4.920480237008607, "counties_scored": 22, "counties_skipped_noninformative": 0, "informative_votes": 65710.0, "informative_vote_coverage": 1.0, "county_examples": [ { "cid": "fips:26125", "county": "Oakland", "new_votes": 23701, "reporting_advance_points": 6.620000000000004, "source": "histgeo county remaining-vote prediction", "geography_level": "county", "effective_sample_votes": 142424, "expected_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 48.69347866887544, "Haley Stevens": 48.529839668247675, "Mallory McMorrow": 2.776681662876886 }, "actual_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 48.20049786928821, "Haley Stevens": 49.07809797054977, "Mallory McMorrow": 2.7214041601620185 }, "mae_points": 0.36550553486806187 }, { "cid": "fips:26161", "county": "Washtenaw", "new_votes": 10867, "reporting_advance_points": 11.980000000000013, "source": "histgeo county remaining-vote prediction", "geography_level": "county", "effective_sample_votes": 48060, "expected_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 63.60007913203789, "Haley Stevens": 34.00843811721857, "Mallory McMorrow": 2.391482750743548 }, "actual_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 50.87880739854606, "Haley Stevens": 41.53860311033404, "Mallory McMorrow": 7.582589491119903 }, "mae_points": 8.480847822327888 }, { "cid": "fips:26099", "county": "Macomb", "new_votes": 4908, "reporting_advance_points": 4.26, "source": "histgeo county remaining-vote prediction", "geography_level": "county", "effective_sample_votes": 11457, "expected_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 53.51476924794056, "Haley Stevens": 43.30514831918462, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.1800824328748174 }, "actual_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 60.411572942135294, "Haley Stevens": 37.286063569682156, "Mallory McMorrow": 2.302363488182559 }, "mae_points": 4.597869129463151 }, { "cid": "fips:26093", "county": "Livingston", "new_votes": 4600, "reporting_advance_points": 10.680000000000012, "source": "histgeo county remaining-vote prediction", "geography_level": "county", "effective_sample_votes": 14200, "expected_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 53.94640466405873, "Haley Stevens": 42.772853463021285, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.2807418729199727 }, "actual_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 39.108695652173914, "Haley Stevens": 55.02173913043479, "Mallory McMorrow": 5.869565217391305 }, "mae_points": 9.891806007923218 }, { "cid": "fips:26067", "county": "Ionia", "new_votes": 4029, "reporting_advance_points": 83.69, "source": "histgeo county remaining-vote prediction", "geography_level": "county", "effective_sample_votes": 0, "expected_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 52.8943711505234, "Haley Stevens": 43.85631920460615, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.2493096448704515 }, "actual_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 46.51278232812112, "Haley Stevens": 49.640109208240254, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.8471084636386204 }, "mae_points": 4.254392548268184 }, { "cid": "fips:26045", "county": "Eaton", "new_votes": 3567, "reporting_advance_points": 21.810000000000006, "source": "histgeo county remaining-vote prediction", "geography_level": "county", "effective_sample_votes": 10127, "expected_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 51.7646825171372, "Haley Stevens": 43.40580282400506, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.8295146588577405 }, "actual_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 39.977572189515, "Haley Stevens": 52.7614241659658, "Mallory McMorrow": 7.261003644519204 }, "mae_points": 7.858073551748136 }, { "cid": "fips:26163", "county": "Wayne", "new_votes": 2715, "reporting_advance_points": 0.9000000000000001, "source": "histgeo county remaining-vote prediction", "geography_level": "county", "effective_sample_votes": 4668, "expected_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 52.207059600865655, "Haley Stevens": 44.59428634583155, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.1986540533027923 }, "actual_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 40.0, "Haley Stevens": 56.86924493554327, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.1307550644567224 }, "mae_points": 8.183305726474483 }, { "cid": "fips:26069", "county": "Iosco", "new_votes": 2117, "reporting_advance_points": 44.879999999999995, "source": "histgeo county remaining-vote prediction", "geography_level": "county", "effective_sample_votes": 908, "expected_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 43.61331751410612, "Haley Stevens": 50.360254635317446, "Mallory McMorrow": 6.026427850576433 }, "actual_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 38.73405762871989, "Haley Stevens": 56.825696740670764, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.440245630609352 }, "mae_points": 4.310294736902209 }, { "cid": "fips:26033", "county": "Chippewa", "new_votes": 1541, "reporting_advance_points": 43.36, "source": "histgeo county remaining-vote prediction", "geography_level": "county", "effective_sample_votes": 0, "expected_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 52.345483320963716, "Haley Stevens": 44.27628031698736, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.3782363620489266 }, "actual_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 49.513303049967554, "Haley Stevens": 43.413367942894226, "Mallory McMorrow": 7.073329007138223 }, "mae_points": 2.463395096726196 }, { "cid": "fips:26139", "county": "Ottawa", "new_votes": 1351, "reporting_advance_points": 5.41, "source": "histgeo county remaining-vote prediction", "geography_level": "county", "effective_sample_votes": 0, "expected_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 52.86424584060979, "Haley Stevens": 43.94025126016644, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.195502899223765 }, "actual_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 52.405625462620286, "Haley Stevens": 42.635085122131755, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.959289415247965 }, "mae_points": 1.1758576773494633 }, { "cid": "fips:26027", "county": "Cass", "new_votes": 743, "reporting_advance_points": 23.08, "source": "histgeo county remaining-vote prediction", "geography_level": "county", "effective_sample_votes": 173, "expected_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 52.550249556123994, "Haley Stevens": 43.20712274175786, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.242627702118145 }, "actual_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 38.22341857335128, "Haley Stevens": 52.35531628532974, "Mallory McMorrow": 9.421265141318976 }, "mae_points": 9.551220655181812 }, { "cid": "fips:26041", "county": "Delta", "new_votes": 735, "reporting_advance_points": 9.229999999999993, "source": "histgeo county remaining-vote prediction", "geography_level": "county", "effective_sample_votes": 1973, "expected_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 47.64893873124314, "Haley Stevens": 44.962082230190845, "Mallory McMorrow": 7.388979038566008 }, "actual_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 45.714285714285715, "Haley Stevens": 45.30612244897959, "Mallory McMorrow": 8.979591836734693 }, "mae_points": 1.2897686779716186 } ] }, "latent": { "available": true, "mae_points": 5.01515780131375, "counties_scored": 22, "counties_skipped_noninformative": 0, "informative_votes": 65710.0, "informative_vote_coverage": 1.0, "county_examples": [ { "cid": "fips:26125", "county": "Oakland", "new_votes": 23701, "reporting_advance_points": 6.620000000000004, "source": "latent county remaining-vote prediction", "geography_level": "county", "effective_sample_votes": 142424, "expected_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 48.801529622074554, "Haley Stevens": 48.3860742216693, "Mallory McMorrow": 2.812396156256146 }, "actual_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 48.20049786928821, "Haley Stevens": 49.07809797054977, "Mallory McMorrow": 2.7214041601620185 }, "mae_points": 0.4613491659203113 }, { "cid": "fips:26161", "county": "Washtenaw", "new_votes": 10867, "reporting_advance_points": 11.980000000000013, "source": "latent county remaining-vote prediction", "geography_level": "county", "effective_sample_votes": 48060, "expected_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 63.1908934885152, "Haley Stevens": 34.301677783691474, "Mallory McMorrow": 2.5074287277933247 }, "actual_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 50.87880739854606, "Haley Stevens": 41.53860311033404, "Mallory McMorrow": 7.582589491119903 }, "mae_points": 8.208057393312762 }, { "cid": "fips:26099", "county": "Macomb", "new_votes": 4908, "reporting_advance_points": 4.26, "source": "latent county remaining-vote prediction", "geography_level": "county", "effective_sample_votes": 11457, "expected_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 53.530642546166675, "Haley Stevens": 43.199367822349, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.2699896314843184 }, "actual_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 60.411572942135294, "Haley Stevens": 37.286063569682156, "Mallory McMorrow": 2.302363488182559 }, "mae_points": 4.58728693064574 }, { "cid": "fips:26093", "county": "Livingston", "new_votes": 4600, "reporting_advance_points": 10.680000000000012, "source": "latent county remaining-vote prediction", "geography_level": "county", "effective_sample_votes": 14200, "expected_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 54.01182297167673, "Haley Stevens": 42.668409650000505, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.319767378322771 }, "actual_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 39.108695652173914, "Haley Stevens": 55.02173913043479, "Mallory McMorrow": 5.869565217391305 }, "mae_points": 9.935418213001878 }, { "cid": "fips:26067", "county": "Ionia", "new_votes": 4029, "reporting_advance_points": 83.69, "source": "latent county remaining-vote prediction", "geography_level": "county", "effective_sample_votes": 0, "expected_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 52.72175434961316, "Haley Stevens": 43.903760554128006, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.3744850962588377 }, "actual_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 46.51278232812112, "Haley Stevens": 49.640109208240254, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.8471084636386204 }, "mae_points": 4.13931468099469 }, { "cid": "fips:26045", "county": "Eaton", "new_votes": 3567, "reporting_advance_points": 21.810000000000006, "source": "latent county remaining-vote prediction", "geography_level": "county", "effective_sample_votes": 10127, "expected_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 51.9346896068174, "Haley Stevens": 43.2498454576314, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.815464935551208 }, "actual_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 39.977572189515, "Haley Stevens": 52.7614241659658, "Mallory McMorrow": 7.261003644519204 }, "mae_points": 7.97141161153493 }, { "cid": "fips:26163", "county": "Wayne", "new_votes": 2715, "reporting_advance_points": 0.9000000000000001, "source": "latent county remaining-vote prediction", "geography_level": "county", "effective_sample_votes": 4668, "expected_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 52.04366088533043, "Haley Stevens": 44.66946314941519, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.286875965254368 }, "actual_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 40.0, "Haley Stevens": 56.86924493554327, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.1307550644567224 }, "mae_points": 8.133187857418719 }, { "cid": "fips:26069", "county": "Iosco", "new_votes": 2117, "reporting_advance_points": 44.879999999999995, "source": "latent county remaining-vote prediction", "geography_level": "county", "effective_sample_votes": 908, "expected_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 44.40712494012611, "Haley Stevens": 49.62334580406637, "Mallory McMorrow": 5.969529255807505 }, "actual_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 38.73405762871989, "Haley Stevens": 56.825696740670764, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.440245630609352 }, "mae_points": 4.801567291069588 }, { "cid": "fips:26033", "county": "Chippewa", "new_votes": 1541, "reporting_advance_points": 43.36, "source": "latent county remaining-vote prediction", "geography_level": "county", "effective_sample_votes": 0, "expected_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 52.70550854069134, "Haley Stevens": 43.91744966606447, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.3770417932441905 }, "actual_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 49.513303049967554, "Haley Stevens": 43.413367942894226, "Mallory McMorrow": 7.073329007138223 }, "mae_points": 2.4641914759293533 }, { "cid": "fips:26139", "county": "Ottawa", "new_votes": 1351, "reporting_advance_points": 5.41, "source": "latent county remaining-vote prediction", "geography_level": "county", "effective_sample_votes": 0, "expected_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 52.735517012711554, "Haley Stevens": 43.89216380098358, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.3723191863048654 }, "actual_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 52.405625462620286, "Haley Stevens": 42.635085122131755, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.959289415247965 }, "mae_points": 1.05798015262873 }, { "cid": "fips:26027", "county": "Cass", "new_votes": 743, "reporting_advance_points": 23.08, "source": "latent county remaining-vote prediction", "geography_level": "county", "effective_sample_votes": 173, "expected_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 53.61763450980934, "Haley Stevens": 42.0463404628765, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.3360250273141565 }, "actual_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 38.22341857335128, "Haley Stevens": 52.35531628532974, "Mallory McMorrow": 9.421265141318976 }, "mae_points": 10.262810624305374 }, { "cid": "fips:26041", "county": "Delta", "new_votes": 735, "reporting_advance_points": 9.229999999999993, "source": "latent county remaining-vote prediction", "geography_level": "county", "effective_sample_votes": 1973, "expected_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 48.04689833235019, "Haley Stevens": 44.63868940117528, "Mallory McMorrow": 7.314412266474539 }, "actual_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 45.714285714285715, "Haley Stevens": 45.30612244897959, "Mallory McMorrow": 8.979591836734693 }, "mae_points": 1.555075078709648 } ] }, "batchbias": { "available": true, "mae_points": 3.241859202295093, "counties_scored": 2, "counties_skipped_noninformative": 20, "informative_votes": 8475.0, "informative_vote_coverage": 0.12897580276974585, "county_examples": [ { "cid": "fips:26099", "county": "Macomb", "new_votes": 4908, "reporting_advance_points": 4.26, "source": "batchbias county remaining-vote prediction", "geography_level": "county", "effective_sample_votes": 11457, "expected_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 58.47883977206854, "Haley Stevens": 38.92297444050053, "Mallory McMorrow": 2.598185787430947 }, "actual_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 60.411572942135294, "Haley Stevens": 37.286063569682156, "Mallory McMorrow": 2.302363488182559 }, "mae_points": 1.2884887800445075 }, { "cid": "fips:26045", "county": "Eaton", "new_votes": 3567, "reporting_advance_points": 21.810000000000006, "source": "batchbias county remaining-vote prediction", "geography_level": "county", "effective_sample_votes": 10127, "expected_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 48.27733769951584, "Haley Stevens": 46.59982163974802, "Mallory McMorrow": 5.122840660736137 }, "actual_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 39.977572189515, "Haley Stevens": 52.7614241659658, "Mallory McMorrow": 7.261003644519204 }, "mae_points": 5.533177006667227 } ] } } }, { "from_snapshot": 30, "from_filename": "30.json", "to_snapshot": 39, "to_filename": "39.json", "span_snapshots": 9, "matured_votes": 82541, "matured_counties": 33, "correction_votes": 0, "predictions": { "v0": { "available": true, "mae_points": 5.280702351906744, "counties_scored": 33, "counties_skipped_noninformative": 0, "informative_votes": 82541.0, "informative_vote_coverage": 1.0, "county_examples": [ { "cid": "fips:26125", "county": "Oakland", "new_votes": 14645, "reporting_advance_points": 5.909999999999993, "source": "statewide live scoreboard", "geography_level": "statewide", "effective_sample_votes": 327317, "expected_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 51.43393102099799, "Haley Stevens": 45.13758833180067, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.4284806472013365 }, "actual_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 45.27142369409355, "Haley Stevens": 51.737794469102084, "Mallory McMorrow": 2.9907818368043704 }, "mae_points": 4.400137424867607 }, { "cid": "fips:26163", "county": "Wayne", "new_votes": 13346, "reporting_advance_points": 4.379999999999999, "source": "statewide live scoreboard", "geography_level": "statewide", "effective_sample_votes": 327317, "expected_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 51.43393102099799, "Haley Stevens": 45.13758833180067, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.4284806472013365 }, "actual_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 49.303161996103704, "Haley Stevens": 47.63224936310505, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.064588640791248 }, "mae_points": 1.6631073542029196 }, { "cid": "fips:26099", "county": "Macomb", "new_votes": 10396, "reporting_advance_points": 9.030000000000001, "source": "statewide live scoreboard", "geography_level": "statewide", "effective_sample_votes": 327317, "expected_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 51.43393102099799, "Haley Stevens": 45.13758833180067, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.4284806472013365 }, "actual_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 62.899191996921886, "Haley Stevens": 34.9461331281262, "Mallory McMorrow": 2.1546748749519047 }, "mae_points": 7.6435073172826 }, { "cid": "fips:26065", "county": "Ingham", "new_votes": 8363, "reporting_advance_points": 15.160000000000002, "source": "statewide live scoreboard", "geography_level": "statewide", "effective_sample_votes": 327317, "expected_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 51.43393102099799, "Haley Stevens": 45.13758833180067, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.4284806472013365 }, "actual_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 54.07150544063135, "Haley Stevens": 40.34437402845869, "Mallory McMorrow": 5.584120530909961 }, "mae_points": 3.1954762022279897 }, { "cid": "fips:26139", "county": "Ottawa", "new_votes": 4579, "reporting_advance_points": 18.329999999999995, "source": "statewide live scoreboard", "geography_level": "statewide", "effective_sample_votes": 327317, "expected_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 51.43393102099799, "Haley Stevens": 45.13758833180067, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.4284806472013365 }, "actual_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 56.016597510373444, "Haley Stevens": 39.244376501419524, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.7390259882070325 }, "mae_points": 3.9288078869207648 }, { "cid": "fips:26111", "county": "Midland", "new_votes": 2669, "reporting_advance_points": 26.950000000000003, "source": "statewide live scoreboard", "geography_level": "statewide", "effective_sample_votes": 327317, "expected_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 51.43393102099799, "Haley Stevens": 45.13758833180067, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.4284806472013365 }, "actual_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 41.81341326339453, "Haley Stevens": 53.3158486324466, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.87073810415886 }, "mae_points": 6.413678505068974 }, { "cid": "fips:26081", "county": "Kent", "new_votes": 2610, "reporting_advance_points": 3.1500000000000057, "source": "statewide live scoreboard", "geography_level": "statewide", "effective_sample_votes": 327317, "expected_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 51.43393102099799, "Haley Stevens": 45.13758833180067, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.4284806472013365 }, "actual_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 57.08812260536399, "Haley Stevens": 39.38697318007663, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.524904214559387 }, "mae_points": 3.833743434482697 }, { "cid": "fips:26107", "county": "Mecosta", "new_votes": 2153, "reporting_advance_points": 61.83, "source": "statewide live scoreboard", "geography_level": "statewide", "effective_sample_votes": 327317, "expected_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 51.43393102099799, "Haley Stevens": 45.13758833180067, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.4284806472013365 }, "actual_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 39.386901997213194, "Haley Stevens": 55.87552252670692, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.737575476079889 }, "mae_points": 8.0313526825232 }, { "cid": "fips:26047", "county": "Emmet", "new_votes": 1991, "reporting_advance_points": 42.44, "source": "statewide live scoreboard", "geography_level": "statewide", "effective_sample_votes": 327317, "expected_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 51.43393102099799, "Haley Stevens": 45.13758833180067, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.4284806472013365 }, "actual_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 52.6368658965344, "Haley Stevens": 41.73782019085886, "Mallory McMorrow": 5.62531391260673 }, "mae_points": 2.266512093961203 }, { "cid": "fips:26155", "county": "Shiawassee", "new_votes": 1802, "reporting_advance_points": 22.32, "source": "statewide live scoreboard", "geography_level": "statewide", "effective_sample_votes": 327317, "expected_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 51.43393102099799, "Haley Stevens": 45.13758833180067, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.4284806472013365 }, "actual_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 36.90344062153163, "Haley Stevens": 55.04994450610433, "Mallory McMorrow": 8.04661487236404 }, "mae_points": 9.686993599644241 }, { "cid": "fips:26027", "county": "Cass", "new_votes": 1784, "reporting_advance_points": 55.39999999999999, "source": "statewide live scoreboard", "geography_level": "statewide", "effective_sample_votes": 327317, "expected_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 51.43393102099799, "Haley Stevens": 45.13758833180067, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.4284806472013365 }, "actual_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 44.955156950672645, "Haley Stevens": 45.403587443946186, "Mallory McMorrow": 9.641255605381167 }, "mae_points": 4.319182713550229 }, { "cid": "fips:26137", "county": "Otsego", "new_votes": 1730, "reporting_advance_points": 70.99, "source": "statewide live scoreboard", "geography_level": "statewide", "effective_sample_votes": 327317, "expected_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 51.43393102099799, "Haley Stevens": 45.13758833180067, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.4284806472013365 }, "actual_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 46.06936416184971, "Haley Stevens": 49.07514450867052, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.855491329479769 }, "mae_points": 3.5763779060988536 } ] }, "v1": { "available": true, "mae_points": 4.016828365564874, "counties_scored": 18, "counties_skipped_noninformative": 15, "informative_votes": 58586.0, "informative_vote_coverage": 0.7097805938866745, "county_examples": [ { "cid": "fips:26125", "county": "Oakland", "new_votes": 14645, "reporting_advance_points": 5.909999999999993, "source": "county live share", "geography_level": "county", "effective_sample_votes": 166125, "expected_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 47.75079006772009, "Haley Stevens": 49.58796087283672, "Mallory McMorrow": 2.66124905944319 }, "actual_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 45.27142369409355, "Haley Stevens": 51.737794469102084, "Mallory McMorrow": 2.9907818368043704 }, "mae_points": 1.6529109157510287 }, { "cid": "fips:26163", "county": "Wayne", "new_votes": 13346, "reporting_advance_points": 4.379999999999999, "source": "county live share", "geography_level": "county", "effective_sample_votes": 7383, "expected_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 44.35866179060003, "Haley Stevens": 52.76987674387106, "Mallory McMorrow": 2.8714614655289177 }, "actual_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 49.303161996103704, "Haley Stevens": 47.63224936310505, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.064588640791248 }, "mae_points": 3.4250849205106704 }, { "cid": "fips:26099", "county": "Macomb", "new_votes": 10396, "reporting_advance_points": 9.030000000000001, "source": "county live share", "geography_level": "county", "effective_sample_votes": 16365, "expected_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 56.810265811182404, "Haley Stevens": 40.366636113657194, "Mallory McMorrow": 2.823098075160403 }, "actual_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 62.899191996921886, "Haley Stevens": 34.9461331281262, "Mallory McMorrow": 2.1546748749519047 }, "mae_points": 4.059284123826326 }, { "cid": "fips:26139", "county": "Ottawa", "new_votes": 4579, "reporting_advance_points": 18.329999999999995, "source": "county live share", "geography_level": "county", "effective_sample_votes": 1351, "expected_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 52.405625462620286, "Haley Stevens": 42.635085122131755, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.959289415247965 }, "actual_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 56.016597510373444, "Haley Stevens": 39.244376501419524, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.7390259882070325 }, "mae_points": 2.4073146985021063 }, { "cid": "fips:26081", "county": "Kent", "new_votes": 2610, "reporting_advance_points": 3.1500000000000057, "source": "county live share", "geography_level": "county", "effective_sample_votes": 18447, "expected_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 53.14685314685315, "Haley Stevens": 40.90638044126416, "Mallory McMorrow": 5.946766411882691 }, "actual_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 57.08812260536399, "Haley Stevens": 39.38697318007663, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.524904214559387 }, "mae_points": 2.6275129723405604 }, { "cid": "fips:26047", "county": "Emmet", "new_votes": 1991, "reporting_advance_points": 42.44, "source": "county live share", "geography_level": "county", "effective_sample_votes": 362, "expected_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 62.430939226519335, "Haley Stevens": 33.70165745856354, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.867403314917127 }, "actual_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 52.6368658965344, "Haley Stevens": 41.73782019085886, "Mallory McMorrow": 5.62531391260673 }, "mae_points": 6.529382219989954 }, { "cid": "fips:26027", "county": "Cass", "new_votes": 1784, "reporting_advance_points": 55.39999999999999, "source": "county live share", "geography_level": "county", "effective_sample_votes": 916, "expected_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 41.70305676855895, "Haley Stevens": 49.23580786026201, "Mallory McMorrow": 9.06113537117904 }, "actual_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 44.955156950672645, "Haley Stevens": 45.403587443946186, "Mallory McMorrow": 9.641255605381167 }, "mae_points": 2.554813610877216 }, { "cid": "fips:26117", "county": "Montcalm", "new_votes": 1430, "reporting_advance_points": 28.139999999999997, "source": "county live share", "geography_level": "county", "effective_sample_votes": 659, "expected_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 46.13050075872534, "Haley Stevens": 48.10318664643399, "Mallory McMorrow": 5.7663125948406675 }, "actual_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 36.92307692307693, "Haley Stevens": 59.3006993006993, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.7762237762237763 }, "mae_points": 7.465008436176872 }, { "cid": "fips:26031", "county": "Cheboygan", "new_votes": 1333, "reporting_advance_points": 47.089999999999996, "source": "county live share", "geography_level": "county", "effective_sample_votes": 288, "expected_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 46.875, "Haley Stevens": 48.95833333333333, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.166666666666666 }, "actual_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 41.035258814703674, "Haley Stevens": 54.46361590397599, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.50112528132033 }, "mae_points": 3.89316079019755 }, { "cid": "fips:26067", "county": "Ionia", "new_votes": 1112, "reporting_advance_points": 0.0, "source": "county live share", "geography_level": "county", "effective_sample_votes": 4029, "expected_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 46.51278232812112, "Haley Stevens": 49.640109208240254, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.8471084636386204 }, "actual_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 52.248201438848916, "Haley Stevens": 42.985611510791365, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.766187050359712 }, "mae_points": 4.43633179829926 }, { "cid": "fips:26145", "county": "Saginaw", "new_votes": 1017, "reporting_advance_points": 3.81, "source": "county live share", "geography_level": "county", "effective_sample_votes": 1027, "expected_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 51.80136319376826, "Haley Stevens": 45.95910418695229, "Mallory McMorrow": 2.239532619279455 }, "actual_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 35.88987217305801, "Haley Stevens": 58.50540806293019, "Mallory McMorrow": 5.604719764011799 }, "mae_points": 10.607660680473497 }, { "cid": "fips:26165", "county": "Wexford", "new_votes": 919, "reporting_advance_points": 34.37, "source": "county live share", "geography_level": "county", "effective_sample_votes": 275, "expected_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 45.81818181818182, "Haley Stevens": 48.72727272727273, "Mallory McMorrow": 5.454545454545454 }, "actual_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 43.41675734494015, "Haley Stevens": 52.66594124047879, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.917301414581066 }, "mae_points": 2.6257790088040385 } ] }, "v3": { "available": true, "mae_points": 4.663952296277272, "counties_scored": 33, "counties_skipped_noninformative": 0, "informative_votes": 82541.0, "informative_vote_coverage": 1.0, "county_examples": [ { "cid": "fips:26125", "county": "Oakland", "new_votes": 14645, "reporting_advance_points": 5.909999999999993, "source": "v3 county remaining-vote prediction", "geography_level": "county", "effective_sample_votes": 166125, "expected_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 48.48741825837567, "Haley Stevens": 48.697886364629504, "Mallory McMorrow": 2.8146953769948193 }, "actual_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 45.27142369409355, "Haley Stevens": 51.737794469102084, "Mallory McMorrow": 2.9907818368043704 }, "mae_points": 2.143996376188083 }, { "cid": "fips:26163", "county": "Wayne", "new_votes": 13346, "reporting_advance_points": 4.379999999999999, "source": "v3 county remaining-vote prediction", "geography_level": "county", "effective_sample_votes": 7383, "expected_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 50.33100570041298, "Haley Stevens": 46.32734434949593, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.3416499500911008 }, "actual_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 49.303161996103704, "Haley Stevens": 47.63224936310505, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.064588640791248 }, "mae_points": 0.869936675739417 }, { "cid": "fips:26099", "county": "Macomb", "new_votes": 10396, "reporting_advance_points": 9.030000000000001, "source": "v3 county remaining-vote prediction", "geography_level": "county", "effective_sample_votes": 16365, "expected_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 53.45988920423203, "Haley Stevens": 43.339755781303055, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.200355014464927 }, "actual_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 62.899191996921886, "Haley Stevens": 34.9461331281262, "Mallory McMorrow": 2.1546748749519047 }, "mae_points": 6.292868528459912 }, { "cid": "fips:26065", "county": "Ingham", "new_votes": 8363, "reporting_advance_points": 15.160000000000002, "source": "v3 county remaining-vote prediction", "geography_level": "county", "effective_sample_votes": 0, "expected_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 51.43393102099799, "Haley Stevens": 45.13758833180067, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.4284806472013365 }, "actual_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 54.07150544063135, "Haley Stevens": 40.34437402845869, "Mallory McMorrow": 5.584120530909961 }, "mae_points": 3.1954762022279897 }, { "cid": "fips:26139", "county": "Ottawa", "new_votes": 4579, "reporting_advance_points": 18.329999999999995, "source": "v3 county remaining-vote prediction", "geography_level": "county", "effective_sample_votes": 1351, "expected_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 51.65994138304869, "Haley Stevens": 44.55552093260259, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.7845376843487135 }, "actual_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 56.016597510373444, "Haley Stevens": 39.244376501419524, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.7390259882070325 }, "mae_points": 3.5407629541220453 }, { "cid": "fips:26111", "county": "Midland", "new_votes": 2669, "reporting_advance_points": 26.950000000000003, "source": "v3 county remaining-vote prediction", "geography_level": "county", "effective_sample_votes": 0, "expected_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 51.43393102099799, "Haley Stevens": 45.13758833180067, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.4284806472013365 }, "actual_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 41.81341326339453, "Haley Stevens": 53.3158486324466, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.87073810415886 }, "mae_points": 6.413678505068974 }, { "cid": "fips:26081", "county": "Kent", "new_votes": 2610, "reporting_advance_points": 3.1500000000000057, "source": "v3 county remaining-vote prediction", "geography_level": "county", "effective_sample_votes": 18447, "expected_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 52.241369879918, "Haley Stevens": 43.143077536814864, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.615552583267133 }, "actual_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 57.08812260536399, "Haley Stevens": 39.38697318007663, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.524904214559387 }, "mae_points": 3.231168483630658 }, { "cid": "fips:26107", "county": "Mecosta", "new_votes": 2153, "reporting_advance_points": 61.83, "source": "v3 county remaining-vote prediction", "geography_level": "county", "effective_sample_votes": 0, "expected_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 51.43393102099799, "Haley Stevens": 45.13758833180067, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.4284806472013365 }, "actual_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 39.386901997213194, "Haley Stevens": 55.87552252670692, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.737575476079889 }, "mae_points": 8.0313526825232 }, { "cid": "fips:26047", "county": "Emmet", "new_votes": 1991, "reporting_advance_points": 42.44, "source": "v3 county remaining-vote prediction", "geography_level": "county", "effective_sample_votes": 362, "expected_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 54.489437431932494, "Haley Stevens": 41.960127749327334, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.550434818740167 }, "actual_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 52.6368658965344, "Haley Stevens": 41.73782019085886, "Mallory McMorrow": 5.62531391260673 }, "mae_points": 1.3832527292443766 }, { "cid": "fips:26155", "county": "Shiawassee", "new_votes": 1802, "reporting_advance_points": 22.32, "source": "v3 county remaining-vote prediction", "geography_level": "county", "effective_sample_votes": 0, "expected_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 51.43393102099799, "Haley Stevens": 45.13758833180067, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.4284806472013365 }, "actual_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 36.90344062153163, "Haley Stevens": 55.04994450610433, "Mallory McMorrow": 8.04661487236404 }, "mae_points": 9.686993599644241 }, { "cid": "fips:26027", "county": "Cass", "new_votes": 1784, "reporting_advance_points": 55.39999999999999, "source": "v3 county remaining-vote prediction", "geography_level": "county", "effective_sample_votes": 916, "expected_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 46.24362462807433, "Haley Stevens": 47.3235188521592, "Mallory McMorrow": 6.432856519766469 }, "actual_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 44.955156950672645, "Haley Stevens": 45.403587443946186, "Mallory McMorrow": 9.641255605381167 }, "mae_points": 2.13893272374313 }, { "cid": "fips:26137", "county": "Otsego", "new_votes": 1730, "reporting_advance_points": 70.99, "source": "v3 county remaining-vote prediction", "geography_level": "county", "effective_sample_votes": 0, "expected_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 51.43393102099799, "Haley Stevens": 45.13758833180067, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.4284806472013365 }, "actual_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 46.06936416184971, "Haley Stevens": 49.07514450867052, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.855491329479769 }, "mae_points": 3.5763779060988536 } ] }, "market": { "available": false, "counties_scored": 0, "counties_skipped_noninformative": 33, "informative_vote_coverage": 0.0 }, "histgeo": { "available": true, "mae_points": 4.410163257140813, "counties_scored": 33, "counties_skipped_noninformative": 0, "informative_votes": 82541.0, "informative_vote_coverage": 1.0, "county_examples": [ { "cid": "fips:26125", "county": "Oakland", "new_votes": 14645, "reporting_advance_points": 5.909999999999993, "source": "histgeo county remaining-vote prediction", "geography_level": "county", "effective_sample_votes": 166125, "expected_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 48.32871939543445, "Haley Stevens": 48.83016759003204, "Mallory McMorrow": 2.8411130145335104 }, "actual_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 45.27142369409355, "Haley Stevens": 51.737794469102084, "Mallory McMorrow": 2.9907818368043704 }, "mae_points": 2.038197134227267 }, { "cid": "fips:26163", "county": "Wayne", "new_votes": 13346, "reporting_advance_points": 4.379999999999999, "source": "histgeo county remaining-vote prediction", "geography_level": "county", "effective_sample_votes": 7383, "expected_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 50.3345836296892, "Haley Stevens": 46.0759150896536, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.5895012806572044 }, "actual_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 49.303161996103704, "Haley Stevens": 47.63224936310505, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.064588640791248 }, "mae_points": 1.0375561823009682 }, { "cid": "fips:26099", "county": "Macomb", "new_votes": 10396, "reporting_advance_points": 9.030000000000001, "source": "histgeo county remaining-vote prediction", "geography_level": "county", "effective_sample_votes": 16365, "expected_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 53.30019660952542, "Haley Stevens": 43.319203050959764, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.380600339514811 }, "actual_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 62.899191996921886, "Haley Stevens": 34.9461331281262, "Mallory McMorrow": 2.1546748749519047 }, "mae_points": 6.399330258264315 }, { "cid": "fips:26065", "county": "Ingham", "new_votes": 8363, "reporting_advance_points": 15.160000000000002, "source": "histgeo county remaining-vote prediction", "geography_level": "county", "effective_sample_votes": 0, "expected_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 51.88746953321656, "Haley Stevens": 44.338847524802596, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.7736829419808493 }, "actual_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 54.07150544063135, "Haley Stevens": 40.34437402845869, "Mallory McMorrow": 5.584120530909961 }, "mae_points": 2.662982330895938 }, { "cid": "fips:26139", "county": "Ottawa", "new_votes": 4579, "reporting_advance_points": 18.329999999999995, "source": "histgeo county remaining-vote prediction", "geography_level": "county", "effective_sample_votes": 1351, "expected_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 51.87988745595457, "Haley Stevens": 44.15583927990323, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.964273264142203 }, "actual_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 56.016597510373444, "Haley Stevens": 39.244376501419524, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.7390259882070325 }, "mae_points": 3.274308518989138 }, { "cid": "fips:26111", "county": "Midland", "new_votes": 2669, "reporting_advance_points": 26.950000000000003, "source": "histgeo county remaining-vote prediction", "geography_level": "county", "effective_sample_votes": 0, "expected_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 50.700220809397514, "Haley Stevens": 45.536997499975705, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.762781690626783 }, "actual_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 41.81341326339453, "Haley Stevens": 53.3158486324466, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.87073810415886 }, "mae_points": 5.924538364001988 }, { "cid": "fips:26081", "county": "Kent", "new_votes": 2610, "reporting_advance_points": 3.1500000000000057, "source": "histgeo county remaining-vote prediction", "geography_level": "county", "effective_sample_votes": 18447, "expected_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 52.90943691314155, "Haley Stevens": 42.38132876659196, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.709234320266497 }, "actual_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 57.08812260536399, "Haley Stevens": 39.38697318007663, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.524904214559387 }, "mae_points": 2.785790461481628 }, { "cid": "fips:26107", "county": "Mecosta", "new_votes": 2153, "reporting_advance_points": 61.83, "source": "histgeo county remaining-vote prediction", "geography_level": "county", "effective_sample_votes": 0, "expected_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 51.07425168025299, "Haley Stevens": 45.13585652938321, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.789891790363795 }, "actual_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 39.386901997213194, "Haley Stevens": 55.87552252670692, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.737575476079889 }, "mae_points": 7.791566455359868 }, { "cid": "fips:26047", "county": "Emmet", "new_votes": 1991, "reporting_advance_points": 42.44, "source": "histgeo county remaining-vote prediction", "geography_level": "county", "effective_sample_votes": 362, "expected_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 54.258603529644844, "Haley Stevens": 41.97692172812461, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.764474742230542 }, "actual_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 52.6368658965344, "Haley Stevens": 41.73782019085886, "Mallory McMorrow": 5.62531391260673 }, "mae_points": 1.2405594469174588 }, { "cid": "fips:26155", "county": "Shiawassee", "new_votes": 1802, "reporting_advance_points": 22.32, "source": "histgeo county remaining-vote prediction", "geography_level": "county", "effective_sample_votes": 0, "expected_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 50.530907057219835, "Haley Stevens": 45.59111656051926, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.8779763822608984 }, "actual_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 36.90344062153163, "Haley Stevens": 55.04994450610433, "Mallory McMorrow": 8.04661487236404 }, "mae_points": 9.084977623792138 }, { "cid": "fips:26027", "county": "Cass", "new_votes": 1784, "reporting_advance_points": 55.39999999999999, "source": "histgeo county remaining-vote prediction", "geography_level": "county", "effective_sample_votes": 916, "expected_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 45.51895406315188, "Haley Stevens": 47.93507751167501, "Mallory McMorrow": 6.545968425173114 }, "actual_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 44.955156950672645, "Haley Stevens": 45.403587443946186, "Mallory McMorrow": 9.641255605381167 }, "mae_points": 2.063524786805371 }, { "cid": "fips:26137", "county": "Otsego", "new_votes": 1730, "reporting_advance_points": 70.99, "source": "histgeo county remaining-vote prediction", "geography_level": "county", "effective_sample_votes": 0, "expected_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 50.757385290100444, "Haley Stevens": 45.40562868362673, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.8369860262728173 }, "actual_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 46.06936416184971, "Haley Stevens": 49.07514450867052, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.855491329479769 }, "mae_points": 3.1253474188338237 } ] }, "latent": { "available": true, "mae_points": 4.5428344165257935, "counties_scored": 33, "counties_skipped_noninformative": 0, "informative_votes": 82541.0, "informative_vote_coverage": 1.0, "county_examples": [ { "cid": "fips:26125", "county": "Oakland", "new_votes": 14645, "reporting_advance_points": 5.909999999999993, "source": "latent county remaining-vote prediction", "geography_level": "county", "effective_sample_votes": 166125, "expected_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 48.31846210288502, "Haley Stevens": 48.76918523958118, "Mallory McMorrow": 2.9123526575338015 }, "actual_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 45.27142369409355, "Haley Stevens": 51.737794469102084, "Mallory McMorrow": 2.9907818368043704 }, "mae_points": 2.031358939194317 }, { "cid": "fips:26163", "county": "Wayne", "new_votes": 13346, "reporting_advance_points": 4.379999999999999, "source": "latent county remaining-vote prediction", "geography_level": "county", "effective_sample_votes": 7383, "expected_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 49.918868132379735, "Haley Stevens": 46.22781957272329, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.853312294896975 }, "actual_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 49.303161996103704, "Haley Stevens": 47.63224936310505, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.064588640791248 }, "mae_points": 0.9362865269211743 }, { "cid": "fips:26099", "county": "Macomb", "new_votes": 10396, "reporting_advance_points": 9.030000000000001, "source": "latent county remaining-vote prediction", "geography_level": "county", "effective_sample_votes": 16365, "expected_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 53.119948621815226, "Haley Stevens": 43.29640249950546, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.5836488786793153 }, "actual_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 62.899191996921886, "Haley Stevens": 34.9461331281262, "Mallory McMorrow": 2.1546748749519047 }, "mae_points": 6.519495583404443 }, { "cid": "fips:26065", "county": "Ingham", "new_votes": 8363, "reporting_advance_points": 15.160000000000002, "source": "latent county remaining-vote prediction", "geography_level": "county", "effective_sample_votes": 0, "expected_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 50.87841458141992, "Haley Stevens": 45.076474773940596, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.045110644639487 }, "actual_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 54.07150544063135, "Haley Stevens": 40.34437402845869, "Mallory McMorrow": 5.584120530909961 }, "mae_points": 3.154733830321272 }, { "cid": "fips:26139", "county": "Ottawa", "new_votes": 4579, "reporting_advance_points": 18.329999999999995, "source": "latent county remaining-vote prediction", "geography_level": "county", "effective_sample_votes": 1351, "expected_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 51.24642877155671, "Haley Stevens": 44.49782084560908, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.255750382834212 }, "actual_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 56.016597510373444, "Haley Stevens": 39.244376501419524, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.7390259882070325 }, "mae_points": 3.502296229459703 }, { "cid": "fips:26111", "county": "Midland", "new_votes": 2669, "reporting_advance_points": 26.950000000000003, "source": "latent county remaining-vote prediction", "geography_level": "county", "effective_sample_votes": 0, "expected_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 50.84866167240849, "Haley Stevens": 45.101593308078535, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.049745019512974 }, "actual_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 41.81341326339453, "Haley Stevens": 53.3158486324466, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.87073810415886 }, "mae_points": 6.02349893934264 }, { "cid": "fips:26081", "county": "Kent", "new_votes": 2610, "reporting_advance_points": 3.1500000000000057, "source": "latent county remaining-vote prediction", "geography_level": "county", "effective_sample_votes": 18447, "expected_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 51.98309354132995, "Haley Stevens": 43.080902410632525, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.936004048037518 }, "actual_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 57.08812260536399, "Haley Stevens": 39.38697318007663, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.524904214559387 }, "mae_points": 3.4033527093560223 }, { "cid": "fips:26107", "county": "Mecosta", "new_votes": 2153, "reporting_advance_points": 61.83, "source": "latent county remaining-vote prediction", "geography_level": "county", "effective_sample_votes": 0, "expected_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 50.85819780006536, "Haley Stevens": 45.09354254746212, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.048259652472513 }, "actual_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 39.386901997213194, "Haley Stevens": 55.87552252670692, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.737575476079889 }, "mae_points": 7.647530535234782 }, { "cid": "fips:26047", "county": "Emmet", "new_votes": 1991, "reporting_advance_points": 42.44, "source": "latent county remaining-vote prediction", "geography_level": "county", "effective_sample_votes": 362, "expected_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 54.06617436674848, "Haley Stevens": 41.934649013950455, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.999176619301063 }, "actual_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 52.6368658965344, "Haley Stevens": 41.73782019085886, "Mallory McMorrow": 5.62531391260673 }, "mae_points": 1.0840915288704434 }, { "cid": "fips:26155", "county": "Shiawassee", "new_votes": 1802, "reporting_advance_points": 22.32, "source": "latent county remaining-vote prediction", "geography_level": "county", "effective_sample_votes": 0, "expected_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 50.83204463384878, "Haley Stevens": 45.11562204221587, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.0523333239353505 }, "actual_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 36.90344062153163, "Haley Stevens": 55.04994450610433, "Mallory McMorrow": 8.04661487236404 }, "mae_points": 9.285736008211435 }, { "cid": "fips:26027", "county": "Cass", "new_votes": 1784, "reporting_advance_points": 55.39999999999999, "source": "latent county remaining-vote prediction", "geography_level": "county", "effective_sample_votes": 916, "expected_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 45.97081654580109, "Haley Stevens": 47.306480640972296, "Mallory McMorrow": 6.722702813226619 }, "actual_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 44.955156950672645, "Haley Stevens": 45.403587443946186, "Mallory McMorrow": 9.641255605381167 }, "mae_points": 1.9457018614363675 }, { "cid": "fips:26137", "county": "Otsego", "new_votes": 1730, "reporting_advance_points": 70.99, "source": "latent county remaining-vote prediction", "geography_level": "county", "effective_sample_votes": 0, "expected_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 50.840784518946904, "Haley Stevens": 45.108243499764285, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.050971981288809 }, "actual_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 46.06936416184971, "Haley Stevens": 49.07514450867052, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.855491329479769 }, "mae_points": 3.1809469047314622 } ] }, "batchbias": { "available": true, "mae_points": 2.7400600097930354, "counties_scored": 3, "counties_skipped_noninformative": 30, "informative_votes": 14902.0, "informative_vote_coverage": 0.18054057983305266, "county_examples": [ { "cid": "fips:26163", "county": "Wayne", "new_votes": 13346, "reporting_advance_points": 4.379999999999999, "source": "batchbias county remaining-vote prediction", "geography_level": "county", "effective_sample_votes": 7383, "expected_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 48.16203802853781, "Haley Stevens": 48.401091631392475, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.436870340069725 }, "actual_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 49.303161996103704, "Haley Stevens": 47.63224936310505, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.064588640791248 }, "mae_points": 0.7607493117105979 }, { "cid": "fips:26145", "county": "Saginaw", "new_votes": 1017, "reporting_advance_points": 3.81, "source": "batchbias county remaining-vote prediction", "geography_level": "county", "effective_sample_votes": 1027, "expected_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 49.35817910590666, "Haley Stevens": 47.33128727031044, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.3105336237828973 }, "actual_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 35.88987217305801, "Haley Stevens": 58.50540806293019, "Mallory McMorrow": 5.604719764011799 }, "mae_points": 8.978871288565765 }, { "cid": "fips:26057", "county": "Gratiot", "new_votes": 539, "reporting_advance_points": 15.410000000000002, "source": "batchbias county remaining-vote prediction", "geography_level": "county", "effective_sample_votes": 601, "expected_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 48.70068780504738, "Haley Stevens": 46.39234732336443, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.906964871588189 }, "actual_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 42.67161410018553, "Haley Stevens": 50.649350649350644, "Mallory McMorrow": 6.679035250463822 }, "mae_points": 4.019382469907899 } ] } } }, { "from_snapshot": 39, "from_filename": "39.json", "to_snapshot": 48, "to_filename": "48.json", "span_snapshots": 9, "matured_votes": 151477, "matured_counties": 47, "correction_votes": 0, "predictions": { "v0": { "available": true, "mae_points": 7.673071411769994, "counties_scored": 47, "counties_skipped_noninformative": 0, "informative_votes": 151477.0, "informative_vote_coverage": 1.0, "county_examples": [ { "cid": "fips:26163", "county": "Wayne", "new_votes": 49157, "reporting_advance_points": 16.16, "source": "statewide live scoreboard", "geography_level": "statewide", "effective_sample_votes": 414355, "expected_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 50.967889852903916, "Haley Stevens": 45.429885001991046, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.6022251451050424 }, "actual_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 28.76497752100413, "Haley Stevens": 67.39426734747849, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.840755131517383 }, "mae_points": 14.801941554599853 }, { "cid": "fips:26081", "county": "Kent", "new_votes": 23536, "reporting_advance_points": 28.34, "source": "statewide live scoreboard", "geography_level": "statewide", "effective_sample_votes": 414355, "expected_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 50.967889852903916, "Haley Stevens": 45.429885001991046, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.6022251451050424 }, "actual_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 74.57087015635622, "Haley Stevens": 23.504418762746432, "Mallory McMorrow": 1.9247110808973487 }, "mae_points": 15.735320202301537 }, { "cid": "fips:26065", "county": "Ingham", "new_votes": 10518, "reporting_advance_points": 19.069999999999997, "source": "statewide live scoreboard", "geography_level": "statewide", "effective_sample_votes": 414355, "expected_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 50.967889852903916, "Haley Stevens": 45.429885001991046, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.6022251451050424 }, "actual_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 74.51036318691766, "Haley Stevens": 23.217341699942956, "Mallory McMorrow": 2.27229511313938 }, "mae_points": 15.694982222675833 }, { "cid": "fips:26125", "county": "Oakland", "new_votes": 8891, "reporting_advance_points": 3.5799999999999943, "source": "statewide live scoreboard", "geography_level": "statewide", "effective_sample_votes": 414355, "expected_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 50.967889852903916, "Haley Stevens": 45.429885001991046, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.6022251451050424 }, "actual_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 46.69890900911034, "Haley Stevens": 49.81441907546957, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.486671915420088 }, "mae_points": 2.9230227156523547 }, { "cid": "fips:26147", "county": "St. Clair", "new_votes": 5847, "reporting_advance_points": 32.78, "source": "statewide live scoreboard", "geography_level": "statewide", "effective_sample_votes": 414355, "expected_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 50.967889852903916, "Haley Stevens": 45.429885001991046, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.6022251451050424 }, "actual_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 43.5608004104669, "Haley Stevens": 52.14639986317769, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.292799726355396 }, "mae_points": 4.938059628291338 }, { "cid": "fips:26099", "county": "Macomb", "new_votes": 4815, "reporting_advance_points": 4.180000000000001, "source": "statewide live scoreboard", "geography_level": "statewide", "effective_sample_votes": 414355, "expected_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 50.967889852903916, "Haley Stevens": 45.429885001991046, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.6022251451050424 }, "actual_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 41.76531671858775, "Haley Stevens": 54.47559709241953, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.7590861889927307 }, "mae_points": 6.135048756210779 }, { "cid": "fips:26139", "county": "Ottawa", "new_votes": 3697, "reporting_advance_points": 14.790000000000006, "source": "statewide live scoreboard", "geography_level": "statewide", "effective_sample_votes": 414355, "expected_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 50.967889852903916, "Haley Stevens": 45.429885001991046, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.6022251451050424 }, "actual_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 51.06843386529618, "Haley Stevens": 44.76602650797945, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.165539626724371 }, "mae_points": 0.44257232934106494 }, { "cid": "fips:26029", "county": "Charlevoix", "new_votes": 2879, "reporting_advance_points": 83.62, "source": "statewide live scoreboard", "geography_level": "statewide", "effective_sample_votes": 414355, "expected_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 50.967889852903916, "Haley Stevens": 45.429885001991046, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.6022251451050424 }, "actual_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 48.66273011462313, "Haley Stevens": 46.960750260507126, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.376519624869746 }, "mae_points": 1.536773158853855 }, { "cid": "fips:26115", "county": "Monroe", "new_votes": 2796, "reporting_advance_points": 17.750000000000004, "source": "statewide live scoreboard", "geography_level": "statewide", "effective_sample_votes": 414355, "expected_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 50.967889852903916, "Haley Stevens": 45.429885001991046, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.6022251451050424 }, "actual_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 44.20600858369099, "Haley Stevens": 50.82260371959942, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.971387696709585 }, "mae_points": 4.50792084614195 }, { "cid": "fips:26015", "county": "Barry", "new_votes": 2664, "reporting_advance_points": 45.190000000000005, "source": "statewide live scoreboard", "geography_level": "statewide", "effective_sample_votes": 414355, "expected_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 50.967889852903916, "Haley Stevens": 45.429885001991046, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.6022251451050424 }, "actual_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 40.57807807807808, "Haley Stevens": 53.9039039039039, "Mallory McMorrow": 5.518018018018018 }, "mae_points": 6.926541183217223 }, { "cid": "fips:26145", "county": "Saginaw", "new_votes": 2388, "reporting_advance_points": 8.940000000000001, "source": "statewide live scoreboard", "geography_level": "statewide", "effective_sample_votes": 414355, "expected_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 50.967889852903916, "Haley Stevens": 45.429885001991046, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.6022251451050424 }, "actual_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 43.84422110552764, "Haley Stevens": 50.67001675041875, "Mallory McMorrow": 5.485762144053601 }, "mae_points": 4.74911249825085 }, { "cid": "fips:26157", "county": "Tuscola", "new_votes": 2125, "reporting_advance_points": 41.07, "source": "statewide live scoreboard", "geography_level": "statewide", "effective_sample_votes": 414355, "expected_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 50.967889852903916, "Haley Stevens": 45.429885001991046, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.6022251451050424 }, "actual_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 36.98823529411765, "Haley Stevens": 56.32941176470588, "Mallory McMorrow": 6.682352941176471 }, "mae_points": 9.319769705857512 } ] }, "v1": { "available": true, "mae_points": 6.834870620547476, "counties_scored": 35, "counties_skipped_noninformative": 12, "informative_votes": 139816.0, "informative_vote_coverage": 0.9230180159364128, "county_examples": [ { "cid": "fips:26163", "county": "Wayne", "new_votes": 49157, "reporting_advance_points": 16.16, "source": "county live share", "geography_level": "county", "effective_sample_votes": 20729, "expected_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 47.54209079067972, "Haley Stevens": 49.46210622798977, "Mallory McMorrow": 2.9958029813305034 }, "actual_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 28.76497752100413, "Haley Stevens": 67.39426734747849, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.840755131517383 }, "mae_points": 12.518075513117063 }, { "cid": "fips:26081", "county": "Kent", "new_votes": 23536, "reporting_advance_points": 28.34, "source": "county live share", "geography_level": "county", "effective_sample_votes": 21057, "expected_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 53.63537066058793, "Haley Stevens": 40.71805100441658, "Mallory McMorrow": 5.646578334995488 }, "actual_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 74.57087015635622, "Haley Stevens": 23.504418762746432, "Mallory McMorrow": 1.9247110808973487 }, "mae_points": 13.956999663845524 }, { "cid": "fips:26065", "county": "Ingham", "new_votes": 10518, "reporting_advance_points": 19.069999999999997, "source": "county live share", "geography_level": "county", "effective_sample_votes": 8363, "expected_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 54.07150544063135, "Haley Stevens": 40.34437402845869, "Mallory McMorrow": 5.584120530909961 }, "actual_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 74.51036318691766, "Haley Stevens": 23.217341699942956, "Mallory McMorrow": 2.27229511313938 }, "mae_points": 13.625905164190874 }, { "cid": "fips:26125", "county": "Oakland", "new_votes": 8891, "reporting_advance_points": 3.5799999999999943, "source": "county live share", "geography_level": "county", "effective_sample_votes": 180770, "expected_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 47.54992531946672, "Haley Stevens": 49.76212867179289, "Mallory McMorrow": 2.687946008740388 }, "actual_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 46.69890900911034, "Haley Stevens": 49.81441907546957, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.486671915420088 }, "mae_points": 0.5673442069042582 }, { "cid": "fips:26147", "county": "St. Clair", "new_votes": 5847, "reporting_advance_points": 32.78, "source": "county live share", "geography_level": "county", "effective_sample_votes": 362, "expected_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 37.84530386740331, "Haley Stevens": 58.28729281767956, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.867403314917127 }, "actual_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 43.5608004104669, "Haley Stevens": 52.14639986317769, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.292799726355396 }, "mae_points": 4.093928636334575 }, { "cid": "fips:26099", "county": "Macomb", "new_votes": 4815, "reporting_advance_points": 4.180000000000001, "source": "county live share", "geography_level": "county", "effective_sample_votes": 26761, "expected_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 59.17566608123762, "Haley Stevens": 38.26090205896641, "Mallory McMorrow": 2.5634318597959718 }, "actual_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 41.76531671858775, "Haley Stevens": 54.47559709241953, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.7590861889927307 }, "mae_points": 11.606899575099918 }, { "cid": "fips:26139", "county": "Ottawa", "new_votes": 3697, "reporting_advance_points": 14.790000000000006, "source": "county live share", "geography_level": "county", "effective_sample_votes": 5930, "expected_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 55.19392917369309, "Haley Stevens": 40.01686340640809, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.789207419898819 }, "actual_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 51.06843386529618, "Haley Stevens": 44.76602650797945, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.165539626724371 }, "mae_points": 3.1661087343809036 }, { "cid": "fips:26029", "county": "Charlevoix", "new_votes": 2879, "reporting_advance_points": 83.62, "source": "county live share", "geography_level": "county", "effective_sample_votes": 460, "expected_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 54.347826086956516, "Haley Stevens": 38.04347826086957, "Mallory McMorrow": 7.608695652173914 }, "actual_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 48.66273011462313, "Haley Stevens": 46.960750260507126, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.376519624869746 }, "mae_points": 5.9448479997583705 }, { "cid": "fips:26115", "county": "Monroe", "new_votes": 2796, "reporting_advance_points": 17.750000000000004, "source": "county live share", "geography_level": "county", "effective_sample_votes": 371, "expected_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 45.82210242587601, "Haley Stevens": 46.900269541778975, "Mallory McMorrow": 7.277628032345014 }, "actual_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 44.20600858369099, "Haley Stevens": 50.82260371959942, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.971387696709585 }, "mae_points": 2.6148894518802996 }, { "cid": "fips:26015", "county": "Barry", "new_votes": 2664, "reporting_advance_points": 45.190000000000005, "source": "county live share", "geography_level": "county", "effective_sample_votes": 376, "expected_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 38.56382978723404, "Haley Stevens": 53.72340425531915, "Mallory McMorrow": 7.712765957446808 }, "actual_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 40.57807807807808, "Haley Stevens": 53.9039039039039, "Mallory McMorrow": 5.518018018018018 }, "mae_points": 1.4631652929525258 }, { "cid": "fips:26145", "county": "Saginaw", "new_votes": 2388, "reporting_advance_points": 8.940000000000001, "source": "county live share", "geography_level": "county", "effective_sample_votes": 2044, "expected_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 43.88454011741683, "Haley Stevens": 52.20156555772994, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.9138943248532287 }, "actual_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 43.84422110552764, "Haley Stevens": 50.67001675041875, "Mallory McMorrow": 5.485762144053601 }, "mae_points": 1.0479118794669189 }, { "cid": "fips:26155", "county": "Shiawassee", "new_votes": 1786, "reporting_advance_points": 22.109999999999996, "source": "county live share", "geography_level": "county", "effective_sample_votes": 1802, "expected_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 36.90344062153163, "Haley Stevens": 55.04994450610433, "Mallory McMorrow": 8.04661487236404 }, "actual_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 42.44120940649496, "Haley Stevens": 52.07166853303471, "Mallory McMorrow": 5.487122060470324 }, "mae_points": 3.6918458566422228 } ] }, "v3": { "available": true, "mae_points": 6.7457986495370745, "counties_scored": 47, "counties_skipped_noninformative": 0, "informative_votes": 151477.0, "informative_vote_coverage": 1.0, "county_examples": [ { "cid": "fips:26163", "county": "Wayne", "new_votes": 49157, "reporting_advance_points": 16.16, "source": "v3 county remaining-vote prediction", "geography_level": "county", "effective_sample_votes": 20729, "expected_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 50.07389412778912, "Haley Stevens": 46.48213251367657, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.4439733585343144 }, "actual_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 28.76497752100413, "Haley Stevens": 67.39426734747849, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.840755131517383 }, "mae_points": 14.205944404523327 }, { "cid": "fips:26081", "county": "Kent", "new_votes": 23536, "reporting_advance_points": 28.34, "source": "v3 county remaining-vote prediction", "geography_level": "county", "effective_sample_votes": 21057, "expected_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 52.31146368567988, "Haley Stevens": 43.05659824945329, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.631938064866841 }, "actual_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 74.57087015635622, "Haley Stevens": 23.504418762746432, "Mallory McMorrow": 1.9247110808973487 }, "mae_points": 14.839604313784227 }, { "cid": "fips:26065", "county": "Ingham", "new_votes": 10518, "reporting_advance_points": 19.069999999999997, "source": "v3 county remaining-vote prediction", "geography_level": "county", "effective_sample_votes": 8363, "expected_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 52.176308797229076, "Haley Stevens": 43.44979834876933, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.373892854001601 }, "actual_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 74.51036318691766, "Haley Stevens": 23.217341699942956, "Mallory McMorrow": 2.27229511313938 }, "mae_points": 14.889369593125727 }, { "cid": "fips:26125", "county": "Oakland", "new_votes": 8891, "reporting_advance_points": 3.5799999999999943, "source": "v3 county remaining-vote prediction", "geography_level": "county", "effective_sample_votes": 180770, "expected_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 48.23351822615417, "Haley Stevens": 48.89567993783252, "Mallory McMorrow": 2.8708018360133196 }, "actual_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 46.69890900911034, "Haley Stevens": 49.81441907546957, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.486671915420088 }, "mae_points": 1.023072811362551 }, { "cid": "fips:26147", "county": "St. Clair", "new_votes": 5847, "reporting_advance_points": 32.78, "source": "v3 county remaining-vote prediction", "geography_level": "county", "effective_sample_votes": 362, "expected_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 49.09820914812537, "Haley Stevens": 47.26178363332964, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.640007218544985 }, "actual_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 43.5608004104669, "Haley Stevens": 52.14639986317769, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.292799726355396 }, "mae_points": 3.691605825105642 }, { "cid": "fips:26099", "county": "Macomb", "new_votes": 4815, "reporting_advance_points": 4.180000000000001, "source": "v3 county remaining-vote prediction", "geography_level": "county", "effective_sample_votes": 26761, "expected_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 54.92383364670649, "Haley Stevens": 41.974613708966004, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.101552644327512 }, "actual_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 41.76531671858775, "Haley Stevens": 54.47559709241953, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.7590861889927307 }, "mae_points": 8.772344618745826 }, { "cid": "fips:26139", "county": "Ottawa", "new_votes": 3697, "reporting_advance_points": 14.790000000000006, "source": "v3 county remaining-vote prediction", "geography_level": "county", "effective_sample_votes": 5930, "expected_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 53.02697303240864, "Haley Stevens": 42.79246001095257, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.1805669566388035 }, "actual_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 51.06843386529618, "Haley Stevens": 44.76602650797945, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.165539626724371 }, "mae_points": 1.3157109980179245 }, { "cid": "fips:26029", "county": "Charlevoix", "new_votes": 2879, "reporting_advance_points": 83.62, "source": "v3 county remaining-vote prediction", "geography_level": "county", "effective_sample_votes": 460, "expected_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 52.20330162685646, "Haley Stevens": 42.73005482080371, "Mallory McMorrow": 5.066643552339838 }, "actual_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 48.66273011462313, "Haley Stevens": 46.960750260507126, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.376519624869746 }, "mae_points": 2.820463626468943 }, { "cid": "fips:26115", "county": "Monroe", "new_votes": 2796, "reporting_advance_points": 17.750000000000004, "source": "v3 county remaining-vote prediction", "geography_level": "county", "effective_sample_votes": 371, "expected_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 50.179055577699216, "Haley Stevens": 45.65529068366059, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.165653738640194 }, "actual_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 44.20600858369099, "Haley Stevens": 50.82260371959942, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.971387696709585 }, "mae_points": 3.982031329338819 }, { "cid": "fips:26015", "county": "Barry", "new_votes": 2664, "reporting_advance_points": 45.190000000000005, "source": "v3 county remaining-vote prediction", "geography_level": "county", "effective_sample_votes": 376, "expected_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 47.83479026144609, "Haley Stevens": 47.52471698819415, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.640492750359757 }, "actual_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 40.57807807807808, "Haley Stevens": 53.9039039039039, "Mallory McMorrow": 5.518018018018018 }, "mae_points": 4.837808122245342 }, { "cid": "fips:26145", "county": "Saginaw", "new_votes": 2388, "reporting_advance_points": 8.940000000000001, "source": "v3 county remaining-vote prediction", "geography_level": "county", "effective_sample_votes": 2044, "expected_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 49.007452042055974, "Haley Stevens": 47.30406305336484, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.688484904579179 }, "actual_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 43.84422110552764, "Haley Stevens": 50.67001675041875, "Mallory McMorrow": 5.485762144053601 }, "mae_points": 3.4421539576855587 }, { "cid": "fips:26157", "county": "Tuscola", "new_votes": 2125, "reporting_advance_points": 41.07, "source": "v3 county remaining-vote prediction", "geography_level": "county", "effective_sample_votes": 0, "expected_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 50.967889852903916, "Haley Stevens": 45.429885001991046, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.6022251451050424 }, "actual_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 36.98823529411765, "Haley Stevens": 56.32941176470588, "Mallory McMorrow": 6.682352941176471 }, "mae_points": 9.319769705857512 } ] }, "market": { "available": false, "counties_scored": 0, "counties_skipped_noninformative": 47, "informative_vote_coverage": 0.0 }, "histgeo": { "available": true, "mae_points": 6.487931095878778, "counties_scored": 47, "counties_skipped_noninformative": 0, "informative_votes": 151477.0, "informative_vote_coverage": 1.0, "county_examples": [ { "cid": "fips:26163", "county": "Wayne", "new_votes": 49157, "reporting_advance_points": 16.16, "source": "histgeo county remaining-vote prediction", "geography_level": "county", "effective_sample_votes": 20729, "expected_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 50.125825302123936, "Haley Stevens": 46.23395082355193, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.6402238743241346 }, "actual_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 28.76497752100413, "Haley Stevens": 67.39426734747849, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.840755131517383 }, "mae_points": 14.240565187413203 }, { "cid": "fips:26081", "county": "Kent", "new_votes": 23536, "reporting_advance_points": 28.34, "source": "histgeo county remaining-vote prediction", "geography_level": "county", "effective_sample_votes": 21057, "expected_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 52.86591874301247, "Haley Stevens": 42.455261975907035, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.678819281080491 }, "actual_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 74.57087015635622, "Haley Stevens": 23.504418762746432, "Mallory McMorrow": 1.9247110808973487 }, "mae_points": 14.469967608895828 }, { "cid": "fips:26065", "county": "Ingham", "new_votes": 10518, "reporting_advance_points": 19.069999999999997, "source": "histgeo county remaining-vote prediction", "geography_level": "county", "effective_sample_votes": 8363, "expected_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 52.211298474756404, "Haley Stevens": 43.20158001628549, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.587121508958111 }, "actual_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 74.51036318691766, "Haley Stevens": 23.217341699942956, "Mallory McMorrow": 2.27229511313938 }, "mae_points": 14.86604314144084 }, { "cid": "fips:26125", "county": "Oakland", "new_votes": 8891, "reporting_advance_points": 3.5799999999999943, "source": "histgeo county remaining-vote prediction", "geography_level": "county", "effective_sample_votes": 180770, "expected_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 47.95324281137729, "Haley Stevens": 49.18618216577857, "Mallory McMorrow": 2.860575022844146 }, "actual_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 46.69890900911034, "Haley Stevens": 49.81441907546957, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.486671915420088 }, "mae_points": 0.8362225348446337 }, { "cid": "fips:26147", "county": "St. Clair", "new_votes": 5847, "reporting_advance_points": 32.78, "source": "histgeo county remaining-vote prediction", "geography_level": "county", "effective_sample_votes": 362, "expected_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 48.535555832827335, "Haley Stevens": 47.502615415356544, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.9618287518161313 }, "actual_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 43.5608004104669, "Haley Stevens": 52.14639986317769, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.292799726355396 }, "mae_points": 3.3165036149069502 }, { "cid": "fips:26099", "county": "Macomb", "new_votes": 4815, "reporting_advance_points": 4.180000000000001, "source": "histgeo county remaining-vote prediction", "geography_level": "county", "effective_sample_votes": 26761, "expected_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 54.67440611335229, "Haley Stevens": 42.05103184999826, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.274562036649452 }, "actual_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 41.76531671858775, "Haley Stevens": 54.47559709241953, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.7590861889927307 }, "mae_points": 8.606059596509697 }, { "cid": "fips:26139", "county": "Ottawa", "new_votes": 3697, "reporting_advance_points": 14.790000000000006, "source": "histgeo county remaining-vote prediction", "geography_level": "county", "effective_sample_votes": 5930, "expected_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 53.117969590833724, "Haley Stevens": 42.60737988905546, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.2746505201108285 }, "actual_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 51.06843386529618, "Haley Stevens": 44.76602650797945, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.165539626724371 }, "mae_points": 1.4390977459493295 }, { "cid": "fips:26029", "county": "Charlevoix", "new_votes": 2879, "reporting_advance_points": 83.62, "source": "histgeo county remaining-vote prediction", "geography_level": "county", "effective_sample_votes": 460, "expected_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 51.496570480693194, "Haley Stevens": 43.175942698887326, "Mallory McMorrow": 5.327486820419485 }, "actual_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 48.66273011462313, "Haley Stevens": 46.960750260507126, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.376519624869746 }, "mae_points": 2.523205041079865 }, { "cid": "fips:26115", "county": "Monroe", "new_votes": 2796, "reporting_advance_points": 17.750000000000004, "source": "histgeo county remaining-vote prediction", "geography_level": "county", "effective_sample_votes": 371, "expected_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 49.26852708019372, "Haley Stevens": 46.22337496160265, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.508097958203628 }, "actual_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 44.20600858369099, "Haley Stevens": 50.82260371959942, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.971387696709585 }, "mae_points": 3.3750123310018196 }, { "cid": "fips:26015", "county": "Barry", "new_votes": 2664, "reporting_advance_points": 45.190000000000005, "source": "histgeo county remaining-vote prediction", "geography_level": "county", "effective_sample_votes": 376, "expected_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 47.40999053308697, "Haley Stevens": 47.664564501627794, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.925444965285247 }, "actual_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 40.57807807807808, "Haley Stevens": 53.9039039039039, "Mallory McMorrow": 5.518018018018018 }, "mae_points": 4.554608303339258 }, { "cid": "fips:26145", "county": "Saginaw", "new_votes": 2388, "reporting_advance_points": 8.940000000000001, "source": "histgeo county remaining-vote prediction", "geography_level": "county", "effective_sample_votes": 2044, "expected_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 47.905214943331714, "Haley Stevens": 48.04209420175779, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.052690854910493 }, "actual_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 43.84422110552764, "Haley Stevens": 50.67001675041875, "Mallory McMorrow": 5.485762144053601 }, "mae_points": 2.7073292252027175 }, { "cid": "fips:26157", "county": "Tuscola", "new_votes": 2125, "reporting_advance_points": 41.07, "source": "histgeo county remaining-vote prediction", "geography_level": "county", "effective_sample_votes": 0, "expected_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 49.60972721257719, "Haley Stevens": 46.285781547266446, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.104491240156357 }, "actual_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 36.98823529411765, "Haley Stevens": 56.32941176470588, "Mallory McMorrow": 6.682352941176471 }, "mae_points": 8.414327945639698 } ] }, "latent": { "available": true, "mae_points": 6.484168778307326, "counties_scored": 47, "counties_skipped_noninformative": 0, "informative_votes": 151477.0, "informative_vote_coverage": 1.0, "county_examples": [ { "cid": "fips:26163", "county": "Wayne", "new_votes": 49157, "reporting_advance_points": 16.16, "source": "latent county remaining-vote prediction", "geography_level": "county", "effective_sample_votes": 20729, "expected_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 49.20266775799501, "Haley Stevens": 46.83595400751956, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.9613782344854314 }, "actual_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 28.76497752100413, "Haley Stevens": 67.39426734747849, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.840755131517383 }, "mae_points": 13.705542226639286 }, { "cid": "fips:26081", "county": "Kent", "new_votes": 23536, "reporting_advance_points": 28.34, "source": "latent county remaining-vote prediction", "geography_level": "county", "effective_sample_votes": 21057, "expected_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 51.72623094734621, "Haley Stevens": 43.294333710134715, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.9794353425190865 }, "actual_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 74.57087015635622, "Haley Stevens": 23.504418762746432, "Mallory McMorrow": 1.9247110808973487 }, "mae_points": 15.229759472673344 }, { "cid": "fips:26065", "county": "Ingham", "new_votes": 10518, "reporting_advance_points": 19.069999999999997, "source": "latent county remaining-vote prediction", "geography_level": "county", "effective_sample_votes": 8363, "expected_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 51.42042251531833, "Haley Stevens": 43.77176432159398, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.807813163087696 }, "actual_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 74.51036318691766, "Haley Stevens": 23.217341699942956, "Mallory McMorrow": 2.27229511313938 }, "mae_points": 15.393293781066223 }, { "cid": "fips:26125", "county": "Oakland", "new_votes": 8891, "reporting_advance_points": 3.5799999999999943, "source": "latent county remaining-vote prediction", "geography_level": "county", "effective_sample_votes": 180770, "expected_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 47.86858059684536, "Haley Stevens": 49.20605080297822, "Mallory McMorrow": 2.9253686001764203 }, "actual_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 46.69890900911034, "Haley Stevens": 49.81441907546957, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.486671915420088 }, "mae_points": 0.7797810584900167 }, { "cid": "fips:26147", "county": "St. Clair", "new_votes": 5847, "reporting_advance_points": 32.78, "source": "latent county remaining-vote prediction", "geography_level": "county", "effective_sample_votes": 362, "expected_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 48.019034995259474, "Haley Stevens": 47.728459092050564, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.2525059126899665 }, "actual_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 43.5608004104669, "Haley Stevens": 52.14639986317769, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.292799726355396 }, "mae_points": 2.9721563898617105 }, { "cid": "fips:26099", "county": "Macomb", "new_votes": 4815, "reporting_advance_points": 4.180000000000001, "source": "latent county remaining-vote prediction", "geography_level": "county", "effective_sample_votes": 26761, "expected_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 54.28714342072555, "Haley Stevens": 42.24400611307379, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.4688504662006716 }, "actual_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 41.76531671858775, "Haley Stevens": 54.47559709241953, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.7590861889927307 }, "mae_points": 8.347884468091864 }, { "cid": "fips:26139", "county": "Ottawa", "new_votes": 3697, "reporting_advance_points": 14.790000000000006, "source": "latent county remaining-vote prediction", "geography_level": "county", "effective_sample_votes": 5930, "expected_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 52.39974354558976, "Haley Stevens": 43.05665506722637, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.543601387183876 }, "actual_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 51.06843386529618, "Haley Stevens": 44.76602650797945, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.165539626724371 }, "mae_points": 1.139580960502052 }, { "cid": "fips:26029", "county": "Charlevoix", "new_votes": 2879, "reporting_advance_points": 83.62, "source": "latent county remaining-vote prediction", "geography_level": "county", "effective_sample_votes": 460, "expected_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 51.3936039743047, "Haley Stevens": 43.08456647754228, "Mallory McMorrow": 5.521829548153007 }, "actual_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 48.66273011462313, "Haley Stevens": 46.960750260507126, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.376519624869746 }, "mae_points": 2.584122521976558 }, { "cid": "fips:26115", "county": "Monroe", "new_votes": 2796, "reporting_advance_points": 17.750000000000004, "source": "latent county remaining-vote prediction", "geography_level": "county", "effective_sample_votes": 371, "expected_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 49.105881968755696, "Haley Stevens": 46.12233874026968, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.771779290974622 }, "actual_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 44.20600858369099, "Haley Stevens": 50.82260371959942, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.971387696709585 }, "mae_points": 3.2665822567098046 }, { "cid": "fips:26015", "county": "Barry", "new_votes": 2664, "reporting_advance_points": 45.190000000000005, "source": "latent county remaining-vote prediction", "geography_level": "county", "effective_sample_votes": 376, "expected_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 46.90152521784016, "Haley Stevens": 47.92543567911002, "Mallory McMorrow": 5.173039103049836 }, "actual_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 40.57807807807808, "Haley Stevens": 53.9039039039039, "Mallory McMorrow": 5.518018018018018 }, "mae_points": 4.21563142650805 }, { "cid": "fips:26145", "county": "Saginaw", "new_votes": 2388, "reporting_advance_points": 8.940000000000001, "source": "latent county remaining-vote prediction", "geography_level": "county", "effective_sample_votes": 2044, "expected_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 48.0938870903444, "Haley Stevens": 47.700444215114324, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.205668694541275 }, "actual_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 43.84422110552764, "Haley Stevens": 50.67001675041875, "Mallory McMorrow": 5.485762144053601 }, "mae_points": 2.8331106565445072 }, { "cid": "fips:26157", "county": "Tuscola", "new_votes": 2125, "reporting_advance_points": 41.07, "source": "latent county remaining-vote prediction", "geography_level": "county", "effective_sample_votes": 0, "expected_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 49.698343639039564, "Haley Stevens": 45.983196871296826, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.318459489663614 }, "actual_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 36.98823529411765, "Haley Stevens": 56.32941176470588, "Mallory McMorrow": 6.682352941176471 }, "mae_points": 8.473405563281275 } ] }, "batchbias": { "available": true, "mae_points": 9.178532222765343, "counties_scored": 7, "counties_skipped_noninformative": 40, "informative_votes": 86527.0, "informative_vote_coverage": 0.5712220337080877, "county_examples": [ { "cid": "fips:26163", "county": "Wayne", "new_votes": 49157, "reporting_advance_points": 16.16, "source": "batchbias county remaining-vote prediction", "geography_level": "county", "effective_sample_votes": 20729, "expected_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 49.173554469298, "Haley Stevens": 47.22657380496897, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.599871725733026 }, "actual_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 28.76497752100413, "Haley Stevens": 67.39426734747849, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.840755131517383 }, "mae_points": 13.605717965529246 }, { "cid": "fips:26081", "county": "Kent", "new_votes": 23536, "reporting_advance_points": 28.34, "source": "batchbias county remaining-vote prediction", "geography_level": "county", "effective_sample_votes": 21057, "expected_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 53.455209852016964, "Haley Stevens": 42.40698126690375, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.137808881079283 }, "actual_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 74.57087015635622, "Haley Stevens": 23.504418762746432, "Mallory McMorrow": 1.9247110808973487 }, "mae_points": 14.077106869559502 }, { "cid": "fips:26125", "county": "Oakland", "new_votes": 8891, "reporting_advance_points": 3.5799999999999943, "source": "batchbias county remaining-vote prediction", "geography_level": "county", "effective_sample_votes": 180770, "expected_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 46.954704278051004, "Haley Stevens": 50.12342220413376, "Mallory McMorrow": 2.9218735178152464 }, "actual_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 46.69890900911034, "Haley Stevens": 49.81441907546957, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.486671915420088 }, "mae_points": 0.37653226506990045 }, { "cid": "fips:26145", "county": "Saginaw", "new_votes": 2388, "reporting_advance_points": 8.940000000000001, "source": "batchbias county remaining-vote prediction", "geography_level": "county", "effective_sample_votes": 2044, "expected_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 46.941211591468644, "Haley Stevens": 49.08250597460071, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.976282433930647 }, "actual_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 43.84422110552764, "Haley Stevens": 50.67001675041875, "Mallory McMorrow": 5.485762144053601 }, "mae_points": 2.06466032396067 }, { "cid": "fips:26117", "county": "Montcalm", "new_votes": 1118, "reporting_advance_points": 22.009999999999998, "source": "batchbias county remaining-vote prediction", "geography_level": "county", "effective_sample_votes": 2089, "expected_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 42.41130881642825, "Haley Stevens": 53.73735899640677, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.8513321871649837 }, "actual_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 40.07155635062612, "Haley Stevens": 57.066189624329155, "Mallory McMorrow": 2.862254025044723 }, "mae_points": 2.219220418614926 }, { "cid": "fips:26041", "county": "Delta", "new_votes": 858, "reporting_advance_points": 18.06, "source": "batchbias county remaining-vote prediction", "geography_level": "county", "effective_sample_votes": 3408, "expected_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 48.021438399732034, "Haley Stevens": 44.14606328551848, "Mallory McMorrow": 7.83249831474947 }, "actual_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 44.40559440559441, "Haley Stevens": 45.45454545454545, "Mallory McMorrow": 10.13986013986014 }, "mae_points": 2.410562662758425 }, { "cid": "fips:26073", "county": "Isabella", "new_votes": 579, "reporting_advance_points": 7.76, "source": "batchbias county remaining-vote prediction", "geography_level": "county", "effective_sample_votes": 1173, "expected_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 50.3907073155487, "Haley Stevens": 45.50862220595188, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.100670478499429 }, "actual_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 44.38687392055268, "Haley Stevens": 49.05008635578584, "Mallory McMorrow": 6.563039723661486 }, "mae_points": 4.002555596664012 } ] } } } ], "matured_votes": 480324, "unique_matured_counties": 66, "average_reporting_advance_points": 32.54357040247833, "base_evidence_before_prediction_coverage": 1.0, "average_informative_vote_coverage": 0.8073991028278135, "evidence": 0.8985538953384007, "models": { "v0": { "mae_points": 6.906826155985889, "raw_score": 0.2154879565916221, "usable_score": 0.21548795659162212, "windows_scored": 4, "informative_vote_coverage": 1.0, "evidence": 1.0, "strength_multiplier": 0.8309628989235827 }, "v1": { "mae_points": 5.82642525665127, "raw_score": 0.27396328767881795, "usable_score": 0.3374278868570438, "windows_scored": 4, "informative_vote_coverage": 0.5930330360340104, "evidence": 0.7700863821896933, "strength_multiplier": 1.1225914112084479 }, "v3": { "mae_points": 6.252361817596126, "raw_score": 0.2492213710187745, "usable_score": 0.2492213710187745, "windows_scored": 4, "informative_vote_coverage": 1.0, "evidence": 1.0, "strength_multiplier": 0.911737424814332 }, "histgeo": { "mae_points": 6.034627187968569, "raw_score": 0.2615765604883897, "usable_score": 0.2615765604883897, "windows_scored": 4, "informative_vote_coverage": 1.0, "evidence": 1.0, "strength_multiplier": 0.9432475941770844 }, "latent": { "mae_points": 6.074996690454159, "raw_score": 0.25924045130541196, "usable_score": 0.25924045130541196, "windows_scored": 4, "informative_vote_coverage": 1.0, "evidence": 1.0, "strength_multiplier": 0.9372073114881438 }, "batchbias": { "mae_points": 7.266906505285562, "raw_score": 0.19891690340660842, "usable_score": 0.37398107276058357, "windows_scored": 4, "informative_vote_coverage": 0.2513615809328703, "evidence": 0.501359732061591, "strength_multiplier": 1.1339236043377035 } }, "best_completion_predictor": "batchbias", "method_note": "V6 scores only genuine ex-ante predictions. Missing county information does not silently become an equal-share prediction. Evidence is reduced by the fraction of matured vote for which each model was actually informative." }, "path_referee": { "available": true, "max_intervals": 4, "intervals": [ { "from_snapshot": 44, "from_filename": "44.json", "to_snapshot": 45, "to_filename": "45.json", "new_votes": 10283, "changed_counties": 13, "correction_votes": 0, "actual_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 46.912379655742484, "Haley Stevens": 47.64173879218127, "Mallory McMorrow": 5.445881552076242 }, "predictions": { "v0": { "available": true, "expected_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 49.893022826195555, "Haley Stevens": 46.51631425463773, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.590662919166728 }, "actual_informative_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 46.912379655742484, "Haley Stevens": 47.64173879218127, "Mallory McMorrow": 5.445881552076242 }, "mae_points": 1.9870954469687074, "informative_votes": 10283.0, "informative_counties": 13, "informative_vote_coverage": 1.0 }, "v1": { "available": true, "expected_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 40.73384504635244, "Haley Stevens": 53.87310293265229, "Mallory McMorrow": 5.393052020995266 }, "actual_informative_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 46.912379655742484, "Haley Stevens": 47.64173879218127, "Mallory McMorrow": 5.445881552076242 }, "mae_points": 4.154242760314012, "informative_votes": 10283.0, "informative_counties": 13, "informative_vote_coverage": 1.0 }, "v3": { "available": true, "expected_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 45.7426995431161, "Haley Stevens": 49.703852554208396, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.553447902675506 }, "actual_informative_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 46.912379655742484, "Haley Stevens": 47.64173879218127, "Mallory McMorrow": 5.445881552076242 }, "mae_points": 1.3747425080180802, "informative_votes": 10283.0, "informative_counties": 13, "informative_vote_coverage": 1.0 }, "market": { "available": false, "informative_vote_coverage": 0.0 }, "temporal": { "available": true, "expected_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 55.72718588646427, "Haley Stevens": 40.35644447781336, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.916369635722363 }, "actual_informative_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 46.912379655742484, "Haley Stevens": 47.64173879218127, "Mallory McMorrow": 5.445881552076242 }, "mae_points": 5.876537487147856, "informative_votes": 10283.0, "informative_counties": 13, "informative_vote_coverage": 1.0 }, "histgeo": { "available": true, "expected_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 45.439653099792146, "Haley Stevens": 49.80819767224371, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.752149227964148 }, "actual_informative_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 46.912379655742484, "Haley Stevens": 47.64173879218127, "Mallory McMorrow": 5.445881552076242 }, "mae_points": 1.4443059200416253, "informative_votes": 10283.0, "informative_counties": 13, "informative_vote_coverage": 1.0 }, "latent": { "available": true, "expected_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 45.31303344063094, "Haley Stevens": 49.774191815828004, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.912774743541047 }, "actual_informative_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 46.912379655742484, "Haley Stevens": 47.64173879218127, "Mallory McMorrow": 5.445881552076242 }, "mae_points": 1.4216353490978257, "informative_votes": 10283.0, "informative_counties": 13, "informative_vote_coverage": 1.0 }, "batchbias": { "available": true, "expected_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 47.44505749966642, "Haley Stevens": 48.65242921520099, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.9025132851325868 }, "actual_informative_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 47.57090012330456, "Haley Stevens": 47.5462392108508, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.882860665844636 }, "mae_points": 0.7374600029001276, "informative_votes": 4055.0, "informative_counties": 3, "informative_vote_coverage": 0.39434017310123504 } } }, { "from_snapshot": 45, "from_filename": "45.json", "to_snapshot": 46, "to_filename": "46.json", "new_votes": 8299, "changed_counties": 14, "correction_votes": 0, "actual_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 45.403060609712014, "Haley Stevens": 50.945897096035665, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.6510422942523193 }, "predictions": { "v0": { "available": true, "expected_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 49.83634447177174, "Haley Stevens": 46.53771474009283, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.6259407881354364 }, "actual_informative_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 45.403060609712014, "Haley Stevens": 50.945897096035665, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.6510422942523193 }, "mae_points": 2.9555225747064804, "informative_votes": 8299.0, "informative_counties": 14, "informative_vote_coverage": 1.0 }, "v1": { "available": true, "expected_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 43.93792542180067, "Haley Stevens": 51.279546695780475, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.782527882418855 }, "actual_informative_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 44.25365062195781, "Haley Stevens": 52.001081665765284, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.745267712276906 }, "mae_points": 0.6915067800946317, "informative_votes": 7396.0, "informative_counties": 13, "informative_vote_coverage": 0.8911917098445595 }, "v3": { "available": true, "expected_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 47.202617179671705, "Haley Stevens": 48.67691523355436, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.120467586773921 }, "actual_informative_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 45.403060609712014, "Haley Stevens": 50.945897096035665, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.6510422942523193 }, "mae_points": 1.5126545749875318, "informative_votes": 8299.0, "informative_counties": 14, "informative_vote_coverage": 1.0 }, "market": { "available": false, "informative_vote_coverage": 0.0 }, "temporal": { "available": true, "expected_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 48.95166975514421, "Haley Stevens": 46.25367983454609, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.794650410309698 }, "actual_informative_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 45.403060609712014, "Haley Stevens": 50.945897096035665, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.6510422942523193 }, "mae_points": 3.1281448409930497, "informative_votes": 8299.0, "informative_counties": 14, "informative_vote_coverage": 1.0 }, "histgeo": { "available": true, "expected_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 46.829161797691896, "Haley Stevens": 48.906742753917, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.2640954483911075 }, "actual_informative_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 45.403060609712014, "Haley Stevens": 50.945897096035665, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.6510422942523193 }, "mae_points": 1.3594362280791126, "informative_votes": 8299.0, "informative_counties": 14, "informative_vote_coverage": 1.0 }, "latent": { "available": true, "expected_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 46.78969893604632, "Haley Stevens": 48.809527059123305, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.40077400483039 }, "actual_informative_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 45.403060609712014, "Haley Stevens": 50.945897096035665, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.6510422942523193 }, "mae_points": 1.424246691274912, "informative_votes": 8299.0, "informative_counties": 14, "informative_vote_coverage": 1.0 }, "batchbias": { "available": true, "expected_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 46.30486078309659, "Haley Stevens": 49.93772850356662, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.7574107133367862 }, "actual_informative_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 44.893832153690596, "Haley Stevens": 51.9969666329626, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.109201213346815 }, "mae_points": 1.3728254195973157, "informative_votes": 3956.0, "informative_counties": 6, "informative_vote_coverage": 0.47668393782383417 } } }, { "from_snapshot": 46, "from_filename": "46.json", "to_snapshot": 47, "to_filename": "47.json", "new_votes": 12360, "changed_counties": 12, "correction_votes": 0, "actual_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 48.57605177993528, "Haley Stevens": 45.98705501618123, "Mallory McMorrow": 5.436893203883495 }, "predictions": { "v0": { "available": true, "expected_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 49.769336822876525, "Haley Stevens": 46.604342987857635, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.626320189265829 }, "actual_informative_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 48.57605177993528, "Haley Stevens": 45.98705501618123, "Mallory McMorrow": 5.436893203883495 }, "mae_points": 1.207048676411774, "informative_votes": 12360.0, "informative_counties": 12, "informative_vote_coverage": 1.0 }, "v1": { "available": true, "expected_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 45.83394374077087, "Haley Stevens": 48.53998571438005, "Mallory McMorrow": 5.626070544849073 }, "actual_informative_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 49.01960784313725, "Haley Stevens": 45.611141652922846, "Mallory McMorrow": 5.3692505039398934 }, "mae_points": 2.123776068244254, "informative_votes": 10914.0, "informative_counties": 11, "informative_vote_coverage": 0.8830097087378641 }, "v3": { "available": true, "expected_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 49.507461788370655, "Haley Stevens": 46.09767875226077, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.394859459368565 }, "actual_informative_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 48.57605177993528, "Haley Stevens": 45.98705501618123, "Mallory McMorrow": 5.436893203883495 }, "mae_points": 0.69468916300995, "informative_votes": 12360.0, "informative_counties": 12, "informative_vote_coverage": 1.0 }, "market": { "available": false, "informative_vote_coverage": 0.0 }, "temporal": { "available": true, "expected_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 48.313214228085386, "Haley Stevens": 47.20571772591945, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.481068045995162 }, "actual_informative_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 48.57605177993528, "Haley Stevens": 45.98705501618123, "Mallory McMorrow": 5.436893203883495 }, "mae_points": 0.8124418064921474, "informative_votes": 12360.0, "informative_counties": 12, "informative_vote_coverage": 1.0 }, "histgeo": { "available": true, "expected_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 49.240437712980054, "Haley Stevens": 46.16285588687788, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.596706400142085 }, "actual_informative_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 48.57605177993528, "Haley Stevens": 45.98705501618123, "Mallory McMorrow": 5.436893203883495 }, "mae_points": 0.5601245358276125, "informative_votes": 12360.0, "informative_counties": 12, "informative_vote_coverage": 1.0 }, "latent": { "available": true, "expected_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 48.98007255231334, "Haley Stevens": 46.24944224067742, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.770485207009243 }, "actual_informative_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 48.57605177993528, "Haley Stevens": 45.98705501618123, "Mallory McMorrow": 5.436893203883495 }, "mae_points": 0.4442719979161677, "informative_votes": 12360.0, "informative_counties": 12, "informative_vote_coverage": 1.0 }, "batchbias": { "available": true, "expected_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 56.690247232116185, "Haley Stevens": 39.3008838522179, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.008868915665915 }, "actual_informative_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 44.0547176429323, "Haley Stevens": 49.80708523325149, "Mallory McMorrow": 6.138197123816204 }, "mae_points": 8.423686392789254, "informative_votes": 2851.0, "informative_counties": 4, "informative_vote_coverage": 0.23066343042071197 } } }, { "from_snapshot": 47, "from_filename": "47.json", "to_snapshot": 48, "to_filename": "48.json", "new_votes": 7007, "changed_counties": 13, "correction_votes": 0, "actual_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 43.741972313400886, "Haley Stevens": 52.176395033537894, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.081632653061225 }, "predictions": { "v0": { "available": true, "expected_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 49.74306635389337, "Haley Stevens": 46.59075323861076, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.666180407495872 }, "actual_informative_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 43.741972313400886, "Haley Stevens": 52.176395033537894, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.081632653061225 }, "mae_points": 4.0007293603283225, "informative_votes": 7007.0, "informative_counties": 13, "informative_vote_coverage": 1.0 }, "v1": { "available": true, "expected_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 48.540743186013856, "Haley Stevens": 46.988704161038484, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.470552652947669 }, "actual_informative_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 43.741972313400886, "Haley Stevens": 52.176395033537894, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.081632653061225 }, "mae_points": 3.458460581666275, "informative_votes": 7007.0, "informative_counties": 13, "informative_vote_coverage": 1.0 }, "v3": { "available": true, "expected_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 47.669465616785686, "Haley Stevens": 48.188609524707815, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.141924858506494 }, "actual_informative_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 43.741972313400886, "Haley Stevens": 52.176395033537894, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.081632653061225 }, "mae_points": 2.658523672553382, "informative_votes": 7007.0, "informative_counties": 13, "informative_vote_coverage": 1.0 }, "market": { "available": false, "informative_vote_coverage": 0.0 }, "temporal": { "available": true, "expected_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 46.74926691132724, "Haley Stevens": 48.22482810197041, "Mallory McMorrow": 5.025904986702358 }, "actual_informative_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 43.741972313400886, "Haley Stevens": 52.176395033537894, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.081632653061225 }, "mae_points": 2.6343779543783254, "informative_votes": 7007.0, "informative_counties": 13, "informative_vote_coverage": 1.0 }, "histgeo": { "available": true, "expected_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 47.30583027839844, "Haley Stevens": 48.36296695243763, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.331202769163922 }, "actual_informative_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 43.741972313400886, "Haley Stevens": 52.176395033537894, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.081632653061225 }, "mae_points": 2.542285387400171, "informative_votes": 7007.0, "informative_counties": 13, "informative_vote_coverage": 1.0 }, "latent": { "available": true, "expected_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 47.11804708729036, "Haley Stevens": 48.39940756813766, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.482545344571984 }, "actual_informative_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 43.741972313400886, "Haley Stevens": 52.176395033537894, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.081632653061225 }, "mae_points": 2.5179916436001566, "informative_votes": 7007.0, "informative_counties": 13, "informative_vote_coverage": 1.0 }, "batchbias": { "available": true, "expected_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 48.055963038946395, "Haley Stevens": 47.84489101270981, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.099145948343795 }, "actual_informative_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 35.97972972972973, "Haley Stevens": 58.50225225225225, "Mallory McMorrow": 5.518018018018018 }, "mae_points": 8.050822206144446, "informative_votes": 1776.0, "informative_counties": 4, "informative_vote_coverage": 0.2534608248893963 } } } ], "recent_votes": 37949, "current_votes": 568436, "base_evidence_before_prediction_coverage": 0.6090081831189499, "evidence": 0.576430440892034, "models": { "v0": { "mae_points": 2.580130181238737, "raw_score": 0.6255559038509592, "usable_score": 0.5960141637281827, "intervals_scored": 4, "informative_vote_coverage": 1.0, "evidence": 0.6090081831189499, "strength_multiplier": 0.9812438454252695 }, "v1": { "mae_points": 2.6598957565382926, "raw_score": 0.6165490421199756, "usable_score": 0.589254528735769, "intervals_scored": 4, "informative_vote_coverage": 0.9381011357348019, "evidence": 0.5898586588970036, "strength_multiplier": 0.9750012092920427 }, "v3": { "mae_points": 1.6038061488256483, "raw_score": 0.7470664679400999, "usable_score": 0.6700150915938691, "intervals_scored": 4, "informative_vote_coverage": 1.0, "evidence": 0.6090081831189499, "strength_multiplier": 1.0617656888583238 }, "temporal": { "mae_points": 2.706784088574817, "raw_score": 0.6113152095706379, "usable_score": 0.5873414643781718, "intervals_scored": 4, "informative_vote_coverage": 1.0, "evidence": 0.6090081831189499, "strength_multiplier": 0.9722159430034651 }, "histgeo": { "mae_points": 1.5063318700354804, "raw_score": 0.7604244446243752, "usable_score": 0.6781502087045048, "intervals_scored": 4, "informative_vote_coverage": 1.0, "evidence": 0.6090081831189499, "strength_multiplier": 1.0710113447458673 }, "latent": { "mae_points": 1.4705268821986817, "raw_score": 0.7653909545213564, "usable_score": 0.6811748538733077, "intervals_scored": 4, "informative_vote_coverage": 1.0, "evidence": 0.6090081831189499, "strength_multiplier": 1.0744693835027321 }, "batchbias": { "mae_points": 5.149149818123109, "raw_score": 0.3921114933421971, "usable_score": 0.49451026475286897, "intervals_scored": 4, "informative_vote_coverage": 0.3330259031858547, "evidence": 0.35144885730913816, "strength_multiplier": 0.9292707205818581 } }, "best_recent_predictor": "latent", "method_note": "V6 Path Referee scores only genuine ex-ante predictions on the exact geography that reported next. This score drives path simulation, not the final-result mixture." }, "raw_guard": { "shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 0.49231441721719627, "Haley Stevens": 0.47038446760480607, "Mallory McMorrow": 0.03730111517799768 }, "release_fraction": 0.6981828066327005, "raw_leader": "Abdul El-Sayed", "mixture_leader": "Abdul El-Sayed", "raw_stability": { "available": true, "reference_candidate": "Abdul El-Sayed", "score": 0.9602183580341994, "dispersion_points": 0.1420809743461143, "sign_consistency": 1.0, "margins_points": [ 3.3767085715578347, 3.2986297316789037, 3.1649938350189144, 3.152313115282607, 3.0094856764877664 ] }, "weighted_final_quality": 0.3438507686826209, "raw_final_quality": 0.21548795659162212, "skill_advantage": 0.12836281209099876, "completion_evidence": 0.8985538953384007, "specialist_override": 0.0, "specialist_details": [], "benchmark_release": 0.0, "consensus_release": 0.0, "benchmark_candidate": "Abdul El-Sayed", "benchmark_evidence": 0.6671350391989715, "crossover_consensus": { "available": false, "raw_leader": "Abdul El-Sayed", "candidate": null, "eligible": false, "score": 0.0, "independent_families": 0, "candidates": {} }, "method_note": "The raw scoreboard is a guarded baseline, not a veto. V6 can release the guard through generic completion skill, specialist held-out exams, or broad county-benchmark beats confirmed by independent expert families." }, "reporting_path_profile": { "available": true, "intervals": 12, "live_evidence": 1.0, "median_dump_votes": 10525.0, "dump_log_sigma": 0.7145720676419697, "median_cadence_seconds": null, "county_recurrence": { "fips:26027": 2, "fips:26073": 5, "fips:26155": 3, "fips:26105": 2, "fips:26013": 1, "fips:26065": 4, "fips:26081": 5, "fips:26041": 4, "fips:26147": 6, "fips:26037": 1, "fips:26165": 1, "fips:26145": 5, "fips:26139": 5, "fips:26107": 2, "fips:26125": 4, "fips:26113": 2, "fips:26047": 1, "fips:26059": 3, "fips:26035": 3, "fips:26057": 7, "fips:26163": 4, "fips:26085": 3, "fips:26117": 3, "fips:26061": 1, "fips:26135": 2, "fips:26111": 4, "fips:26131": 1, "fips:26039": 2, "fips:26069": 2, "fips:26099": 2, "fips:26127": 2, "fips:26021": 2, "fips:26133": 5, "fips:26151": 3, "fips:26025": 1, "fips:26029": 1, "fips:26033": 1, "fips:26159": 4, "fips:26075": 1, "fips:26141": 1, "fips:26115": 2, "fips:26007": 1, "fips:26143": 3, "fips:26157": 2, "fips:26049": 1, "fips:26077": 1, "fips:26045": 2, "fips:26063": 1, "fips:26149": 1, "fips:26093": 1, "fips:26089": 1, "fips:26079": 1, "fips:26015": 1, "fips:26023": 1, "fips:26097": 1, "fips:26055": 1 }, "market_activity_votes": { "DETROIT (MI)": 80645.00000000001, "GRAND RAPIDS (MI) - KALAMAZOO (MI) - BATTLE CREEK (MI)": 43525.00000000001, "SOUTH BEND (IN) - ELKHART (IN)": 2415.0, "MARQUETTE (MI)": 2911.0000000000005, "TRAVERSE CITY (MI) - CADILLAC (MI)": 20646.000000000004, "LANSING (MI)": 13956.000000000004, "ALPENA (MI)": 1634.0000000000005, "FLINT (MI) - SAGINAW (MI) - BAY CITY (MI)": 12730.000000000002 }, "historical_profile_used": false, "historical_profile_races": 0, "historical_profile_intervals": 0, "historical_profile_source_races": [], "method_note": "V6 blends current-race prior dumps with a state historical reporting profile from other archived races when available. The current race is automatically excluded from its own historical profile." }, "model_disagreement_points": { "v0": 0.4178946727704619, "v1": 0.6121060510461522, "v3": 0.15036621444837428, "market": 0.18372861667720386, "histgeo": 0.060268517054198195, "latent": 0.09655633481326781, "batchbias": 0.029485862404544694 }, "model_confidence": 0.6640368667250907, "model_confidence_note": "Diagnostic model-quality score only. Candidate win probability is reported separately by Monte Carlo.", "weighted_validation_residual_mae_points": 6.131157946830113, "weighted_final_quality": 0.3438507686826209, "gate_entropy": 0.9588281138752243, "reference_url": "/var/www/html/afi_needle_lab/engine/references/library/mi_democratic_library.json", "reference_library": { "manifest_state": "MI", "manifest_party": "democratic", "references_requested": 4, "references_used": 4, "composite_total_votes": 1023978, "weights": [ { "source": "/var/www/html/afi_needle_lab/engine/references/official/mi_official_20260828_152614_195e3b3ae6bf6bb9.json", "election_name": "2024-08-06 \u2014 DEMOCRATIC \u2014 UNITED STATES SENATOR 6 YEAR TERM (1) POSITION", "year": 2024, "party": "democratic", "total_votes": 933844, "counties": 83, "recency_score": 0.7710515858035663, "office_similarity": 0.8, "live_turnout_fit": 0.871831229850376, "weight": 0.4068387284211743 }, { "source": "/var/www/html/afi_needle_lab/engine/references/official/mi_official_20260828_152940_e6d213d83f7d09e3.json", "election_name": "2024-02-27 \u2014 DEMOCRATIC \u2014 PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES 4 YEAR TERM (1) POSITION", "year": 2024, "party": "democratic", "total_votes": 770571, "counties": 83, "recency_score": 0.7710515858035663, "office_similarity": 0.55, "live_turnout_fit": 0.927831640663263, "weight": 0.2908081182152374 }, { "source": "/var/www/html/afi_needle_lab/engine/references/official/mi_official_20260828_153102_eac66d34d9fc7329.json", "election_name": "2020-03-10 \u2014 Democratic \u2014 President of the United States 4 Year Term (1) Position", "year": 2020, "party": "democratic", "total_votes": 1587679, "counties": 83, "recency_score": 0.4584060113052235, "office_similarity": 0.55, "live_turnout_fit": 0.9091247332234232, "weight": 0.17068566047679776 }, { "source": "/var/www/html/afi_needle_lab/engine/references/official/mi_official_20260828_153137_cbbc622d503a8c99.json", "election_name": "2018-08-07 \u2014 Democratic \u2014 Governor 4 Year Term (1) Position", "year": 2018, "party": "democratic", "total_votes": 1131447, "counties": 83, "recency_score": 0.35345468195878016, "office_similarity": 0.55, "live_turnout_fit": 0.9097851703003733, "weight": 0.13166749288679058 } ], "weighting_method": "recency \u00d7 office similarity \u00d7 party match \u00d7 live county-turnout fit, normalized across usable historical races" }, "media_market_source": "/var/www/html/afi_needle_lab/engine/media_markets/mi_media_markets.js", "media_market_available": true, "temporal_available": true, "temporal_role": "path_only", "specialists": { "runoff_transfer_available": false, "latent_coalition_available": true, "batch_bias_available": true, "precinct_hierarchy_available": false, "historical_candidate_geo_available": true }, "why": [ "V3 Remaining Vote currently has the largest V6 expert weight at 21.1%.", "Completion Referee has 90% usable evidence after informative-prediction coverage; Within-County Batch Bias has the best generic maturation score at 7.27 points.", "Latent coalition model compresses 10 historical candidate maps into 4 factors.", "Within-county reporting-order model has 14 informative counties and 38% confidence.", "County Benchmark Breadth favors Abdul El-Sayed with +0.60 points weighted performance versus the dynamic win path and 67% evidence.", "Raw guard released 70% of the experts' requested correction away from the scoreboard.", "Path Referee separately favors Latent Coalition Factors for near-term reporting at 1.47 points MAE; this does not directly change final expert weights." ] }, "county_benchmarks": { "available": true, "projected_leader": "Abdul El-Sayed", "projected_runner_up": "Haley Stevens", "projected_statewide_margin_points": 1.88063211058202, "projected_statewide_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 49.05357763768492, "Haley Stevens": 47.1729455271029, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.7734768352121777 }, "expected_final_votes": 2455324.1381099336, "estimated_remaining_votes": 1886888.138109931, "leader_weighted_expected_excess_points": 1.223591722994783, "leader_recent_weighted_excess_points": -2.071322333959439, "leader_expected_status_counts": { "well_above": 0, "above": 167, "on_benchmark": 0, "below": 0, "well_below": 0 }, "leader_recent_status_counts": { "well_above": 3, "above": 0, "on_benchmark": 1, "below": 1, "well_below": 8 }, "top_leverage_counties": [ { "cid": "fips:26163", "county": "Wayne", "reporting": 22.97, "estimated_remaining_votes": 243867.3379252507, "expected_remaining_share_points": 41.64555593769401, "required_remaining_share_points": 40.43645064061567, "required_final_county_share_points": 39.0772880822506, "expected_excess_points": 1.2091052970783451, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "recent_excess_points": null, "status": "ABOVE", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "leverage": 0.19864370177452464, "criticality_score": 0.16428982839999362, "benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 25.825397063609934, "central": 40.43645064061567, "p90": 55.212785481365344 }, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 30.49878877943287, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 30.49878877943287, "feasible": true, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 40.148439545193234, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 40.148439545193234, "feasible": true, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 45.19248298831058, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 45.19248298831058, "feasible": true, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false } } }, { "cid": "26163", "county": "26163", "reporting": 0.0, "estimated_remaining_votes": 243867.33792525067, "expected_remaining_share_points": 45.51633874471458, "required_remaining_share_points": 44.28457031828452, "required_final_county_share_points": 44.28457031828452, "expected_excess_points": 1.2317684264300581, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "recent_excess_points": null, "status": "ABOVE", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "leverage": 0.19864370177452462, "criticality_score": 0.16126708357855765, "benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 29.673516741278785, "central": 44.28457031828452, "p90": 59.0609051590342 }, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 34.36957158645344, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 34.36957158645344, "feasible": true, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 44.0192223522138, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 44.0192223522138, "feasible": true, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 49.06326579533115, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 49.06326579533115, "feasible": true, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false } } }, { "cid": "fips:26099", "county": "Macomb", "reporting": 27.41, "estimated_remaining_votes": 87051.54937106234, "expected_remaining_share_points": 53.23162281223133, "required_remaining_share_points": 51.999169873725585, "required_final_county_share_points": 53.20272008465212, "expected_excess_points": 1.2324529385057446, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "recent_excess_points": null, "status": "ABOVE", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "leverage": 0.07090839699728863, "criticality_score": 0.057534364827966304, "benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 11.067575136457592, "central": 51.999169873725585, "p90": 93.39378568401717 }, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 22.004924918886502, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 22.004924918886502, "feasible": true, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 49.03758155918977, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 49.03758155918977, "feasible": true, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 63.16803019266629, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 63.16803019266629, "feasible": true, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false } } }, { "cid": "26099", "county": "26099", "reporting": 0.0, "estimated_remaining_votes": 87051.54937106233, "expected_remaining_share_points": 51.0656987941285, "required_remaining_share_points": 49.82773188621717, "required_final_county_share_points": 49.82773188621717, "expected_excess_points": 1.2379669079113285, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "recent_excess_points": null, "status": "ABOVE", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "leverage": 0.07090839699728861, "criticality_score": 0.05727810375555495, "benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 8.896137148949173, "central": 49.82773188621717, "p90": 91.22234769650878 }, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 19.839000900783667, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 19.839000900783667, "feasible": true, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 46.87165754108693, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 46.87165754108693, "feasible": true, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 61.002106174563465, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 61.002106174563465, "feasible": true, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false } } }, { "cid": "fips:26049", "county": "Genesee", "reporting": 3.4300000000000006, "estimated_remaining_votes": 64183.379378517384, "expected_remaining_share_points": 49.964640810874236, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.72970216224296, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.81797759487675, "expected_excess_points": 1.2349386486312781, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "recent_excess_points": null, "status": "ABOVE", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "leverage": 0.052280982687625634, "criticality_score": 0.042334882583495395, "benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 48.72970216224296, "p90": 100.0 }, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 7.612049537570229, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 7.612049537570229, "feasible": true, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 44.27628671143863, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 44.27628671143863, "feasible": true, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 63.441333157466964, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 63.441333157466964, "feasible": true, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false } } }, { "cid": "26049", "county": "26049", "reporting": 0.0, "estimated_remaining_votes": 64183.37937851738, "expected_remaining_share_points": 48.32016286564123, "required_remaining_share_points": 47.0877023519475, "required_final_county_share_points": 47.0877023519475, "expected_excess_points": 1.2324605136937308, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "recent_excess_points": null, "status": "ABOVE", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "leverage": 0.05228098268762563, "criticality_score": 0.04242000624501757, "benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 47.0877023519475, "p90": 100.0 }, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 5.967571592337215, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 5.967571592337215, "feasible": true, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 42.63180876620562, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 42.63180876620562, "feasible": true, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 61.796855212233964, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 61.796855212233964, "feasible": true, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false } } }, { "cid": "26125", "county": "26125", "reporting": 0.0, "estimated_remaining_votes": 58294.288272976875, "expected_remaining_share_points": 48.44529292257174, "required_remaining_share_points": 47.20377120432641, "required_final_county_share_points": 47.20377120432641, "expected_excess_points": 1.2415217182453304, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "recent_excess_points": null, "status": "ABOVE", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "leverage": 0.04748398581529103, "criticality_score": 0.03824660101991705, "benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 47.20377120432641, "p90": 100.0 }, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1.8140960439252893, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 1.8140960439252893, "feasible": true, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 42.18228157069173, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 42.18228157069173, "feasible": true, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 63.28344745322575, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 63.28344745322575, "feasible": true, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false } } }, { "cid": "fips:26125", "county": "Oakland", "reporting": 76.49, "estimated_remaining_votes": 58294.28827297687, "expected_remaining_share_points": 48.05095048633834, "required_remaining_share_points": 46.806775165819126, "required_final_county_share_points": 47.34469559576671, "expected_excess_points": 1.2441753205192114, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "recent_excess_points": null, "status": "ABOVE", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "leverage": 0.04748398581529102, "criticality_score": 0.038165027896129064, "benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 46.806775165819126, "p90": 100.0 }, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1.4197536076918809, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 1.4197536076918809, "feasible": true, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 41.78793913445833, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 41.78793913445833, "feasible": true, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 62.889105016992346, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 62.889105016992346, "feasible": true, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false } } }, { "cid": "26081", "county": "26081", "reporting": 0.0, "estimated_remaining_votes": 46918.32971673878, "expected_remaining_share_points": 55.5704454339816, "required_remaining_share_points": 54.35989329691363, "required_final_county_share_points": 54.35989329691363, "expected_excess_points": 1.210552137067964, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "recent_excess_points": null, "status": "ABOVE", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "leverage": 0.038217625924417215, "criticality_score": 0.03157040886895032, "benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 54.35989329691363, "p90": 100.0 }, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -2.367090914162368, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 47.788885617005285, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 47.788885617005285, "feasible": true, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 74.00630329318261, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 74.00630329318261, "feasible": true, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false } } }, { "cid": "fips:26081", "county": "Kent", "reporting": 53.71, "estimated_remaining_votes": 46918.32971673878, "expected_remaining_share_points": 58.955819082444094, "required_remaining_share_points": 57.77711302226799, "required_final_county_share_points": 61.143310409537044, "expected_excess_points": 1.1787060601761041, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "recent_excess_points": null, "status": "ABOVE", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "leverage": 0.038217625924417215, "criticality_score": 0.03242337272679104, "benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 57.77711302226799, "p90": 100.0 }, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1.0182827343001293, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 1.0182827343001293, "feasible": true, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 51.17425926546778, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 51.17425926546778, "feasible": true, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 77.3916769416451, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 77.3916769416451, "feasible": true, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false } } }, { "cid": "fips:26077", "county": "Kalamazoo", "reporting": 3.45, "estimated_remaining_votes": 42085.15108479823, "expected_remaining_share_points": 48.734671319991016, "required_remaining_share_points": 47.504644632416884, "required_final_county_share_points": 47.49328823422302, "expected_excess_points": 1.2300266875741315, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "recent_excess_points": null, "status": "ABOVE", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "leverage": 0.03428072931926182, "criticality_score": 0.027869906942320537, "benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 47.504644632416884, "p90": 100.0 }, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -15.856576739937118, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 40.05945500752544, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 40.05945500752544, "feasible": true, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 69.28775561107643, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 69.28775561107643, "feasible": true, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false } } }, { "cid": "26077", "county": "26077", "reporting": 0.0, "estimated_remaining_votes": 42085.15108479823, "expected_remaining_share_points": 50.90024768957419, "required_remaining_share_points": 49.669690025912665, "required_final_county_share_points": 49.66969002591267, "expected_excess_points": 1.2305576636615285, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "recent_excess_points": null, "status": "ABOVE", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "leverage": 0.03428072931926182, "criticality_score": 0.027857881293639985, "benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 49.669690025912665, "p90": 100.0 }, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -13.69100037035394, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 42.22503137710862, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 42.22503137710862, "feasible": true, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 71.45333198065961, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 71.45333198065961, "feasible": true, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false } } } ], "most_pivotal_counties": [ { "cid": "fips:26163", "county": "Wayne", "reporting": 22.97, "estimated_remaining_votes": 243867.3379252507, "expected_remaining_share_points": 41.64555593769401, "required_remaining_share_points": 40.43645064061567, "required_final_county_share_points": 39.0772880822506, "expected_excess_points": 1.2091052970783451, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "recent_excess_points": null, "status": "ABOVE", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "leverage": 0.19864370177452464, "criticality_score": 0.16428982839999362, "benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 25.825397063609934, "central": 40.43645064061567, "p90": 55.212785481365344 }, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 30.49878877943287, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 30.49878877943287, "feasible": true, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 40.148439545193234, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 40.148439545193234, "feasible": true, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 45.19248298831058, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 45.19248298831058, "feasible": true, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false } } }, { "cid": "26163", "county": "26163", "reporting": 0.0, "estimated_remaining_votes": 243867.33792525067, "expected_remaining_share_points": 45.51633874471458, "required_remaining_share_points": 44.28457031828452, "required_final_county_share_points": 44.28457031828452, "expected_excess_points": 1.2317684264300581, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "recent_excess_points": null, "status": "ABOVE", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "leverage": 0.19864370177452462, "criticality_score": 0.16126708357855765, "benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 29.673516741278785, "central": 44.28457031828452, "p90": 59.0609051590342 }, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 34.36957158645344, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 34.36957158645344, "feasible": true, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 44.0192223522138, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 44.0192223522138, "feasible": true, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 49.06326579533115, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 49.06326579533115, "feasible": true, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false } } }, { "cid": "fips:26099", "county": "Macomb", "reporting": 27.41, "estimated_remaining_votes": 87051.54937106234, "expected_remaining_share_points": 53.23162281223133, "required_remaining_share_points": 51.999169873725585, "required_final_county_share_points": 53.20272008465212, "expected_excess_points": 1.2324529385057446, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "recent_excess_points": null, "status": "ABOVE", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "leverage": 0.07090839699728863, "criticality_score": 0.057534364827966304, "benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 11.067575136457592, "central": 51.999169873725585, "p90": 93.39378568401717 }, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 22.004924918886502, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 22.004924918886502, "feasible": true, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 49.03758155918977, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 49.03758155918977, "feasible": true, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 63.16803019266629, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 63.16803019266629, "feasible": true, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false } } }, { "cid": "26099", "county": "26099", "reporting": 0.0, "estimated_remaining_votes": 87051.54937106233, "expected_remaining_share_points": 51.0656987941285, "required_remaining_share_points": 49.82773188621717, "required_final_county_share_points": 49.82773188621717, "expected_excess_points": 1.2379669079113285, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "recent_excess_points": null, "status": "ABOVE", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "leverage": 0.07090839699728861, "criticality_score": 0.05727810375555495, "benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 8.896137148949173, "central": 49.82773188621717, "p90": 91.22234769650878 }, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 19.839000900783667, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 19.839000900783667, "feasible": true, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 46.87165754108693, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 46.87165754108693, "feasible": true, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 61.002106174563465, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 61.002106174563465, "feasible": true, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false } } }, { "cid": "26049", "county": "26049", "reporting": 0.0, "estimated_remaining_votes": 64183.37937851738, "expected_remaining_share_points": 48.32016286564123, "required_remaining_share_points": 47.0877023519475, "required_final_county_share_points": 47.0877023519475, "expected_excess_points": 1.2324605136937308, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "recent_excess_points": null, "status": "ABOVE", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "leverage": 0.05228098268762563, "criticality_score": 0.04242000624501757, "benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 47.0877023519475, "p90": 100.0 }, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 5.967571592337215, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 5.967571592337215, "feasible": true, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 42.63180876620562, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 42.63180876620562, "feasible": true, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 61.796855212233964, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 61.796855212233964, "feasible": true, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false } } }, { "cid": "fips:26049", "county": "Genesee", "reporting": 3.4300000000000006, "estimated_remaining_votes": 64183.379378517384, "expected_remaining_share_points": 49.964640810874236, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.72970216224296, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.81797759487675, "expected_excess_points": 1.2349386486312781, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "recent_excess_points": null, "status": "ABOVE", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "leverage": 0.052280982687625634, "criticality_score": 0.042334882583495395, "benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 48.72970216224296, "p90": 100.0 }, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 7.612049537570229, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 7.612049537570229, "feasible": true, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 44.27628671143863, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 44.27628671143863, "feasible": true, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 63.441333157466964, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 63.441333157466964, "feasible": true, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false } } }, { "cid": "26125", "county": "26125", "reporting": 0.0, "estimated_remaining_votes": 58294.288272976875, "expected_remaining_share_points": 48.44529292257174, "required_remaining_share_points": 47.20377120432641, "required_final_county_share_points": 47.20377120432641, "expected_excess_points": 1.2415217182453304, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "recent_excess_points": null, "status": "ABOVE", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "leverage": 0.04748398581529103, "criticality_score": 0.03824660101991705, "benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 47.20377120432641, "p90": 100.0 }, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1.8140960439252893, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 1.8140960439252893, "feasible": true, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 42.18228157069173, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 42.18228157069173, "feasible": true, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 63.28344745322575, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 63.28344745322575, "feasible": true, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false } } }, { "cid": "fips:26125", "county": "Oakland", "reporting": 76.49, "estimated_remaining_votes": 58294.28827297687, "expected_remaining_share_points": 48.05095048633834, "required_remaining_share_points": 46.806775165819126, "required_final_county_share_points": 47.34469559576671, "expected_excess_points": 1.2441753205192114, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "recent_excess_points": null, "status": "ABOVE", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "leverage": 0.04748398581529102, "criticality_score": 0.038165027896129064, "benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 46.806775165819126, "p90": 100.0 }, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1.4197536076918809, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 1.4197536076918809, "feasible": true, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 41.78793913445833, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 41.78793913445833, "feasible": true, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 62.889105016992346, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 62.889105016992346, "feasible": true, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false } } } ], "tipping_county": { "cid": "fips:26163", "county": "Wayne", "expected_margin_contribution_points": -1.291829165914926, "distance_from_statewide_margin_points": 0.5888029446670942, "estimated_remaining_votes": 243867.3379252507 }, "counties": [ { "cid": "fips:26163", "county": "Wayne", "fips": "26163", "reporting": 22.97, "current_votes": 69886, "current_candidate_votes": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 23995, "Haley Stevens": 43382, "Mallory McMorrow": 2509 }, "current_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 34.33448759408179, "Haley Stevens": 62.07537990441576, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.5901325015024463 }, "estimated_remaining_votes": 243867.3379252507, "estimated_final_votes": 313753.3379252507, "turnout_disagreement_votes": 0.0, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 41.64555593769401, "Haley Stevens": 54.652051027895745, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.702393034410266 }, "remaining_sources": [ { "model": "v3", "remaining_votes": 243867.3379252507, "weight": 0.1342208488636769 }, { "model": "histgeo", "remaining_votes": 243867.3379252507, "weight": 0.05994207394479305 }, { "model": "latent", "remaining_votes": 243867.3379252507, "weight": 0.07672787409296966 }, { "model": "batchbias", "remaining_votes": 243867.3379252507, "weight": 0.045123489075924846 } ], "share_sources": [ { "model": "v0", "weight": 0.03630604611298715, "source": "statewide raw" }, { "model": "v1", "weight": 0.14599140026529184, "source": "county live" }, { "model": "v3", "weight": 0.15004242351696637, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "market", "weight": 0.0786646379365536, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "histgeo", "weight": 0.06573339512824654, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "latent", "weight": 0.08483492578364633, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "batchbias", "weight": 0.04883898267529022, "source": "county remaining" } ], "candidate_benchmarks": { "Abdul El-Sayed": { "opponent": "Haley Stevens", "expected_remaining_share_points": 41.64555593769401, "expected_final_county_share_points": 40.017075024501594, "current_county_share_points": 34.33448759408179, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 40.43645064061567, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 40.43645064061567, "required_final_county_share_points": 39.0772880822506, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 25.825397063609934, "central": 40.43645064061567, "p90": 55.212785481365344 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 32.178192543929406, "feasible": true, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": false }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 40.43645064061567, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 40.43645064061567, "required_final_county_share_points": 39.0772880822506, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 25.825397063609934, "central": 40.43645064061567, "p90": 55.212785481365344 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 41.07821168709322, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 41.07821168709322, "required_final_county_share_points": 39.576102083795625, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.024044322225107804, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999973, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 41.72261645522827, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 41.72261645522827, "required_final_county_share_points": 40.07697093953628, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.003259695682198218, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.9999999999999996, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": 1.2091052970783451, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "ABOVE", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.19864370177452464, "criticality_score": 0.16428982839999362, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 30.49878877943287, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 30.49878877943287, "feasible": true, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 40.148439545193234, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 40.148439545193234, "feasible": true, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 45.19248298831058, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 45.19248298831058, "feasible": true, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false } } }, "Haley Stevens": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 54.652051027895745, "expected_final_county_share_points": 56.30553706025175, "current_county_share_points": 62.07537990441576, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 55.86115632497408, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 55.86115632497408, "required_final_county_share_points": 57.24532400250275, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 41.084821484224406, "central": 55.86115632497408, "p90": 70.47220990197982 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 64.11941442166035, "feasible": true, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": false }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 55.86115632497408, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 55.86115632497408, "required_final_county_share_points": 57.24532400250275, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 41.084821484224406, "central": 55.86115632497408, "p90": 70.47220990197982 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 56.50028355998876, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 56.50028355998876, "required_final_county_share_points": 57.742090852631655, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.07865391656842785, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.999999999999999, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 57.136786853384415, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 57.136786853384415, "required_final_county_share_points": 58.23681822276097, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.10597932088248406, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -1.209105297078338, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.19864370177452464, "criticality_score": 0.1642898283999946, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 65.79881818615688, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 65.79881818615688, "feasible": true, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 75.44846895191725, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 75.44846895191725, "feasible": true, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 80.4925123950346, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 80.4925123950346, "feasible": true, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false } } }, "Mallory McMorrow": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 3.702393034410266, "expected_final_county_share_points": 3.677387915246673, "current_county_share_points": 3.5901325015024463, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 30.150192710830886, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 30.150192710830886, "required_final_county_share_points": 24.234155673381593, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 15.373857870081212, "central": 30.150192710830886, "p90": 44.76124628783662 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 231.64871299309203, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 30.150192710830886, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 30.150192710830886, "required_final_county_share_points": 24.234155673381593, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 15.373857870081212, "central": 30.150192710830886, "p90": 44.76124628783662 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 30.688501383508104, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 30.688501383508104, "required_final_county_share_points": 24.652560474605234, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.159018308558073, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999906, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 31.22480773049429, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 31.22480773049429, "required_final_county_share_points": 25.069408951873374, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.213613509684069, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.999999999999993, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -26.44779967642062, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "WELL BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.19864370177452464, "criticality_score": 0.007510783664609509, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 14.849160192671405, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 14.849160192671405, "feasible": true, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 24.498810958431765, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 24.498810958431765, "feasible": true, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 29.54285440154911, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 29.54285440154911, "feasible": true, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false } } } } }, { "cid": "26163", "county": "26163", "fips": null, "reporting": 0.0, "current_votes": 0, "current_candidate_votes": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 0, "Haley Stevens": 0, "Mallory McMorrow": 0 }, "current_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": null, "Haley Stevens": null, "Mallory McMorrow": null }, "estimated_remaining_votes": 243867.33792525067, "estimated_final_votes": 243867.33792525067, "turnout_disagreement_votes": 2.9103830456733704e-11, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 45.51633874471458, "Haley Stevens": 50.90232394506936, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.5813373102160573 }, "remaining_sources": [ { "model": "market", "remaining_votes": 243867.3379252507, "weight": 0.1780093144963334 } ], "share_sources": [ { "model": "v0", "weight": 0.03630604611298715, "source": "statewide raw" }, { "model": "v3", "weight": 0.06301781787712588, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "market", "weight": 0.18729675699179427, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "histgeo", "weight": 0.02760802595386354, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "latent", "weight": 0.03563066882913146, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "batchbias", "weight": 0.020512372723621893, "source": "statewide fallback" } ], "candidate_benchmarks": { "Abdul El-Sayed": { "opponent": "Haley Stevens", "expected_remaining_share_points": 45.51633874471458, "expected_final_county_share_points": 45.51633874471459, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 44.28457031828452, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 44.28457031828452, "required_final_county_share_points": 44.28457031828452, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 29.673516741278785, "central": 44.28457031828452, "p90": 59.0609051590342 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 36.048975350949966, "feasible": true, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": false }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 44.28457031828452, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 44.28457031828452, "required_final_county_share_points": 44.28457031828452, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 29.673516741278785, "central": 44.28457031828452, "p90": 59.0609051590342 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 44.93898245592348, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 44.93898245592348, "required_final_county_share_points": 44.93898245592348, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.024044322225107804, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999973, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 45.59467450126506, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 45.59467450126506, "required_final_county_share_points": 45.594674501265054, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.003259695682198218, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.9999999999999996, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": 1.2317684264300581, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "ABOVE", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.19864370177452462, "criticality_score": 0.16126708357855765, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 34.36957158645344, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 34.36957158645344, "feasible": true, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 44.0192223522138, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 44.0192223522138, "feasible": true, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 49.06326579533115, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 49.06326579533115, "feasible": true, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false } } }, "Haley Stevens": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 50.90232394506936, "expected_final_county_share_points": 50.90232394506936, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 52.13409237149942, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 52.13409237149942, "required_final_county_share_points": 52.13409237149942, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 37.357757530749744, "central": 52.13409237149942, "p90": 66.74514594850515 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 60.36968733883398, "feasible": true, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": false }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 52.13409237149942, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 52.13409237149942, "required_final_county_share_points": 52.13409237149942, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 37.357757530749744, "central": 52.13409237149942, "p90": 66.74514594850515 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 52.78722187419612, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 52.78722187419612, "required_final_county_share_points": 52.78722187419612, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.07865391656842785, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.999999999999999, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 53.43906603929837, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 53.43906603929837, "required_final_county_share_points": 53.43906603929837, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.10597932088248406, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -1.2317684264300581, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.19864370177452462, "criticality_score": 0.16126708357855765, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 62.049091103330504, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 62.049091103330504, "feasible": true, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 71.69874186909087, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 71.69874186909087, "feasible": true, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 76.74278531220821, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 76.74278531220821, "feasible": true, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false } } }, "Mallory McMorrow": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 3.5813373102160573, "expected_final_county_share_points": 3.5813373102160573, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 31.28154163489656, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 31.28154163489656, "required_final_county_share_points": 31.28154163489656, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 16.50520679414688, "central": 31.28154163489656, "p90": 45.8925952119023 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 231.5276572688978, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 31.28154163489656, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 31.28154163489656, "required_final_county_share_points": 31.28154163489656, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 16.50520679414688, "central": 31.28154163489656, "p90": 45.8925952119023 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 31.8871645758567, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 31.8871645758567, "required_final_county_share_points": 31.8871645758567, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.159018308558073, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999906, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 32.492319773721604, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 32.492319773721604, "required_final_county_share_points": 32.492319773721604, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.213613509684069, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.999999999999993, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -27.700204324680502, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "WELL BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.19864370177452462, "criticality_score": 0.007171199874418825, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 14.728104468477198, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 14.728104468477198, "feasible": true, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 24.377755234237558, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 24.377755234237558, "feasible": true, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 29.421798677354907, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 29.421798677354907, "feasible": true, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false } } } } }, { "cid": "fips:26099", "county": "Macomb", "fips": "26099", "reporting": 27.41, "current_votes": 31576, "current_candidate_votes": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 17847, "Haley Stevens": 12862, "Mallory McMorrow": 867 }, "current_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 56.52077527235876, "Haley Stevens": 40.73346845705599, "Mallory McMorrow": 2.7457562705852547 }, "estimated_remaining_votes": 87051.54937106234, "estimated_final_votes": 118627.54937106234, "turnout_disagreement_votes": 1.4551915228366852e-11, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 53.23162281223133, "Haley Stevens": 43.52786560085431, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.2405115869143555 }, "remaining_sources": [ { "model": "v3", "remaining_votes": 87051.54937106233, "weight": 0.1342208488636769 }, { "model": "histgeo", "remaining_votes": 87051.54937106233, "weight": 0.05994207394479305 }, { "model": "latent", "remaining_votes": 87051.54937106233, "weight": 0.07672787409296966 }, { "model": "batchbias", "remaining_votes": 87051.54937106233, "weight": 0.045123489075924846 } ], "share_sources": [ { "model": "v0", "weight": 0.03630604611298715, "source": "statewide raw" }, { "model": "v1", "weight": 0.14599140026529184, "source": "county live" }, { "model": "v3", "weight": 0.15004242351696637, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "market", "weight": 0.0786646379365536, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "histgeo", "weight": 0.06573339512824654, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "latent", "weight": 0.08483492578364633, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "batchbias", "weight": 0.04883898267529022, "source": "county remaining" } ], "candidate_benchmarks": { "Abdul El-Sayed": { "opponent": "Haley Stevens", "expected_remaining_share_points": 53.23162281223133, "expected_final_county_share_points": 54.107121620321166, "current_county_share_points": 56.52077527235876, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 51.999169873725585, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 51.999169873725585, "required_final_county_share_points": 53.20272008465212, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 11.067575136457592, "central": 51.999169873725585, "p90": 93.39378568401717 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 26.70962837687643, "feasible": true, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": false }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 51.999169873725585, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 51.999169873725585, "required_final_county_share_points": 53.20272008465212, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 11.067575136457592, "central": 51.999169873725585, "p90": 93.39378568401717 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 52.65517626974121, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 52.65517626974121, "required_final_county_share_points": 53.68411225260344, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.024044322225107804, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999973, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 53.30966855287589, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 53.30966855287589, "required_final_county_share_points": 54.164393330652715, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.003259695682198218, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.9999999999999996, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": 1.2324529385057446, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "ABOVE", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.07090839699728863, "criticality_score": 0.057534364827966304, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 22.004924918886502, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 22.004924918886502, "feasible": true, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 49.03758155918977, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 49.03758155918977, "feasible": true, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 63.16803019266629, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 63.16803019266629, "feasible": true, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false } } }, "Haley Stevens": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 43.52786560085431, "expected_final_county_share_points": 42.78405959052718, "current_county_share_points": 40.73346845705599, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 44.760318539360064, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 44.760318539360064, "required_final_county_share_points": 43.688461126196216, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 3.365702729068474, "central": 44.760318539360064, "p90": 85.69191327662806 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 70.04986003620921, "feasible": true, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": false }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 44.760318539360064, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 44.760318539360064, "required_final_county_share_points": 43.688461126196216, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 3.365702729068474, "central": 44.760318539360064, "p90": 85.69191327662806 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 45.41783777995146, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 45.41783777995146, "required_final_county_share_points": 44.17096345333886, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.07865391656842785, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.999999999999999, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 46.07686854924514, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 46.07686854924514, "required_final_county_share_points": 44.654574974055414, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.10597932088248406, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -1.2324529385057517, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.07090839699728863, "criticality_score": 0.05753436482796597, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 74.75456349419915, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 74.75456349419915, "feasible": true, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 101.7872201345024, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 115.91766876797894, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Mallory McMorrow": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 3.2405115869143555, "expected_final_county_share_points": 3.108818789151658, "current_county_share_points": 2.7457562705852547, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 32.52744151348054, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 32.52744151348054, "required_final_county_share_points": 24.60022310413644, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 32.52744151348054, "p90": 73.45903625074854 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 641.8122847466453, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 32.52744151348054, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 32.52744151348054, "required_final_county_share_points": 24.60022310413644, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 32.52744151348054, "p90": 73.45903625074854 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 33.265695057931325, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 33.265695057931325, "required_final_county_share_points": 25.141970069439562, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.159018308558073, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999906, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 34.00822064741608, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 34.00822064741608, "required_final_county_share_points": 25.686851956952257, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.213613509684069, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.999999999999993, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -29.286929926566184, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "WELL BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.07090839699728863, "criticality_score": 0.0024211618348213273, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 34.467209480259186, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 34.467209480259186, "feasible": true, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 61.499866120562444, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 61.499866120562444, "feasible": true, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 75.63031475403898, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 75.63031475403898, "feasible": true, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false } } } } }, { "cid": "26099", "county": "26099", "fips": null, "reporting": 0.0, "current_votes": 0, "current_candidate_votes": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 0, "Haley Stevens": 0, "Mallory McMorrow": 0 }, "current_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": null, "Haley Stevens": null, "Mallory McMorrow": null }, "estimated_remaining_votes": 87051.54937106233, "estimated_final_votes": 87051.54937106233, "turnout_disagreement_votes": 0.0, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 51.0656987941285, "Haley Stevens": 45.569276045116666, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.3650251607548363 }, "remaining_sources": [ { "model": "market", "remaining_votes": 87051.54937106233, "weight": 0.1780093144963334 } ], "share_sources": [ { "model": "v0", "weight": 0.03630604611298715, "source": "statewide raw" }, { "model": "v3", "weight": 0.06301781787712588, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "market", "weight": 0.18729675699179427, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "histgeo", "weight": 0.02760802595386354, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "latent", "weight": 0.03563066882913146, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "batchbias", "weight": 0.020512372723621893, "source": "statewide fallback" } ], "candidate_benchmarks": { "Abdul El-Sayed": { "opponent": "Haley Stevens", "expected_remaining_share_points": 51.0656987941285, "expected_final_county_share_points": 51.065698794128494, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 49.82773188621717, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 49.82773188621717, "required_final_county_share_points": 49.82773188621717, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 8.896137148949173, "central": 49.82773188621717, "p90": 91.22234769650878 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 24.543704358773567, "feasible": true, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": false }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 49.82773188621717, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 49.82773188621717, "required_final_county_share_points": 49.82773188621717, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 8.896137148949173, "central": 49.82773188621717, "p90": 91.22234769650878 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 50.48632913946651, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 50.48632913946651, "required_final_county_share_points": 50.48632913946651, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.024044322225107804, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999973, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 51.1441868342374, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 51.1441868342374, "required_final_county_share_points": 51.1441868342374, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.003259695682198218, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.9999999999999996, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": 1.2379669079113285, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "ABOVE", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.07090839699728861, "criticality_score": 0.05727810375555495, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 19.839000900783667, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 19.839000900783667, "feasible": true, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 46.87165754108693, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 46.87165754108693, "feasible": true, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 61.002106174563465, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 61.002106174563465, "feasible": true, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false } } }, "Haley Stevens": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 45.569276045116666, "expected_final_county_share_points": 45.56927604511666, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 46.80724295302798, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 46.80724295302798, "required_final_county_share_points": 46.80724295302798, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 5.412627142736376, "central": 46.80724295302798, "p90": 87.73883769029598 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 72.09127048047161, "feasible": true, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": false }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 46.80724295302798, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 46.80724295302798, "required_final_county_share_points": 46.80724295302798, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 5.412627142736376, "central": 46.80724295302798, "p90": 87.73883769029598 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 47.466574469917525, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 47.466574469917525, "required_final_county_share_points": 47.466574469917525, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.07865391656842785, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.999999999999999, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.12663491756927, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.12663491756927, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.12663491756927, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.10597932088248406, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -1.2379669079113143, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.07090839699728861, "criticality_score": 0.05727810375555561, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 76.7959739384615, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 76.7959739384615, "feasible": true, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 103.82863057876476, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 117.9590792122413, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Mallory McMorrow": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 3.3650251607548363, "expected_final_county_share_points": 3.3650251607548363, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 32.39817483241233, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 32.39817483241233, "required_final_county_share_points": 32.39817483241233, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 32.39817483241233, "p90": 73.32976956968034 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 641.9367983204861, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 32.39817483241233, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 32.39817483241233, "required_final_county_share_points": 32.39817483241233, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 32.39817483241233, "p90": 73.32976956968034 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 33.099428262388464, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 33.099428262388464, "required_final_county_share_points": 33.099428262388464, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.159018308558073, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999906, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 33.803286602273005, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 33.803286602273005, "required_final_county_share_points": 33.803286602273005, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.213613509684069, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.999999999999993, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -29.033149671657494, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "WELL BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.07090839699728861, "criticality_score": 0.002442325334977701, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 34.591723054099674, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 34.591723054099674, "feasible": true, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 61.62437969440293, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 61.62437969440293, "feasible": true, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 75.75482832787948, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 75.75482832787948, "feasible": true, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false } } } } }, { "cid": "fips:26049", "county": "Genesee", "fips": "26049", "reporting": 3.4300000000000006, "current_votes": 2213, "current_candidate_votes": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 1137, "Haley Stevens": 999, "Mallory McMorrow": 77 }, "current_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 51.37821961138725, "Haley Stevens": 45.142340713962945, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.4794396746497966 }, "estimated_remaining_votes": 64183.379378517384, "estimated_final_votes": 66396.37937851739, "turnout_disagreement_votes": 7.275957614183426e-12, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 49.964640810874236, "Haley Stevens": 46.307663096836585, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.7276960922891837 }, "remaining_sources": [ { "model": "v3", "remaining_votes": 64183.37937851738, "weight": 0.1342208488636769 }, { "model": "histgeo", "remaining_votes": 64183.37937851738, "weight": 0.05994207394479305 }, { "model": "latent", "remaining_votes": 64183.37937851738, "weight": 0.07672787409296966 }, { "model": "batchbias", "remaining_votes": 64183.37937851738, "weight": 0.045123489075924846 } ], "share_sources": [ { "model": "v0", "weight": 0.03630604611298715, "source": "statewide raw" }, { "model": "v1", "weight": 0.14599140026529184, "source": "county live" }, { "model": "v3", "weight": 0.15004242351696637, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "market", "weight": 0.0786646379365536, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "histgeo", "weight": 0.06573339512824654, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "latent", "weight": 0.08483492578364633, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "batchbias", "weight": 0.04883898267529022, "source": "county remaining" } ], "candidate_benchmarks": { "Abdul El-Sayed": { "opponent": "Haley Stevens", "expected_remaining_share_points": 49.964640810874236, "expected_final_county_share_points": 50.01175557699274, "current_county_share_points": 51.37821961138725, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.72970216224296, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.72970216224296, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.81797759487675, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 48.72970216224296, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 13.99301185702228, "feasible": true, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": false }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.72970216224296, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.72970216224296, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.81797759487675, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 48.72970216224296, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 49.38653910357338, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 49.38653910357338, "required_final_county_share_points": 49.45292207513068, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.024044322225107804, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999973, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 50.04297729133514, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 50.04297729133514, "required_final_county_share_points": 50.0874810923245, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.003259695682198218, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.9999999999999996, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": 1.2349386486312781, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "ABOVE", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.052280982687625634, "criticality_score": 0.042334882583495395, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 7.612049537570229, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 7.612049537570229, "feasible": true, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 44.27628671143863, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 44.27628671143863, "feasible": true, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 63.441333157466964, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 63.441333157466964, "feasible": true, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false } } }, "Haley Stevens": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 46.307663096836585, "expected_final_county_share_points": 46.26882274955503, "current_county_share_points": 45.142340713962945, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 47.54260174546786, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 47.54260174546786, "required_final_county_share_points": 47.46260073167103, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 47.54260174546786, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 82.27929205068854, "feasible": true, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": false }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 47.54260174546786, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 47.54260174546786, "required_final_county_share_points": 47.46260073167103, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 47.54260174546786, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.19983128370718, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.19983128370718, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.097924723527576, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.07865391656842785, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.999999999999999, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.857447235441455, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.857447235441455, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.73362224966682, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.10597932088248406, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -1.2349386486312781, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.052280982687625634, "criticality_score": 0.042334882583495395, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 88.66025437014059, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 88.66025437014059, "feasible": true, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 125.32449154400899, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 144.48953799003732, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Mallory McMorrow": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 3.7276960922891837, "expected_final_county_share_points": 3.719421673452217, "current_county_share_points": 3.4794396746497966, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 33.54396650996579, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 33.54396650996579, "required_final_county_share_points": 32.54191190233035, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 33.54396650996579, "p90": 89.05925371686244 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 869.8189299357201, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 33.54396650996579, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 33.54396650996579, "required_final_county_share_points": 32.54191190233035, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 33.54396650996579, "p90": 89.05925371686244 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 34.21599970086275, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 34.21599970086275, "required_final_county_share_points": 33.19154613916723, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.159018308558073, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999906, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 34.88840211774535, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 34.88840211774535, "required_final_county_share_points": 33.8415372956394, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.213613509684069, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.999999999999993, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -29.81627041767661, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "WELL BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.052280982687625634, "criticality_score": 0.001753438037529697, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 46.08028736559319, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 46.08028736559319, "feasible": true, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 82.74452453946158, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 82.74452453946158, "feasible": true, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 101.90957098548992, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } } } }, { "cid": "26049", "county": "26049", "fips": null, "reporting": 0.0, "current_votes": 0, "current_candidate_votes": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 0, "Haley Stevens": 0, "Mallory McMorrow": 0 }, "current_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": null, "Haley Stevens": null, "Mallory McMorrow": null }, "estimated_remaining_votes": 64183.37937851738, "estimated_final_votes": 64183.37937851738, "turnout_disagreement_votes": 0.0, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 48.32016286564123, "Haley Stevens": 47.702062163697065, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.977774970661694 }, "remaining_sources": [ { "model": "market", "remaining_votes": 64183.37937851738, "weight": 0.1780093144963334 } ], "share_sources": [ { "model": "v0", "weight": 0.03630604611298715, "source": "statewide raw" }, { "model": "v3", "weight": 0.06301781787712588, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "market", "weight": 0.18729675699179427, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "histgeo", "weight": 0.02760802595386354, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "latent", "weight": 0.03563066882913146, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "batchbias", "weight": 0.020512372723621893, "source": "statewide fallback" } ], "candidate_benchmarks": { "Abdul El-Sayed": { "opponent": "Haley Stevens", "expected_remaining_share_points": 48.32016286564123, "expected_final_county_share_points": 48.32016286564123, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 47.0877023519475, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 47.0877023519475, "required_final_county_share_points": 47.0877023519475, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 47.0877023519475, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 12.348533911789305, "feasible": true, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": false }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 47.0877023519475, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 47.0877023519475, "required_final_county_share_points": 47.0877023519475, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 47.0877023519475, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 47.742972592446094, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 47.742972592446094, "required_final_county_share_points": 47.742972592446094, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.024044322225107804, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999973, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.39840954113892, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.39840954113892, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.39840954113892, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.003259695682198218, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.9999999999999996, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": 1.2324605136937308, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "ABOVE", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.05228098268762563, "criticality_score": 0.04242000624501757, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 5.967571592337215, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 5.967571592337215, "feasible": true, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 42.63180876620562, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 42.63180876620562, "feasible": true, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 61.796855212233964, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 61.796855212233964, "feasible": true, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false } } }, "Haley Stevens": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 47.702062163697065, "expected_final_county_share_points": 47.702062163697065, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.934522677390795, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.934522677390795, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.934522677390795, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 48.934522677390795, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 83.673691117549, "feasible": true, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": false }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.934522677390795, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.934522677390795, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.934522677390795, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 48.934522677390795, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 49.58961977714004, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 49.58961977714004, "required_final_county_share_points": 49.58961977714004, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.07865391656842785, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.999999999999999, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 50.24453729886916, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 50.24453729886916, "required_final_county_share_points": 50.24453729886916, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.10597932088248406, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -1.2324605136937308, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.05228098268762563, "criticality_score": 0.04242000624501757, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 90.05465343700108, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 90.05465343700108, "feasible": true, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 126.71889061086948, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 145.88393705689782, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Mallory McMorrow": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 3.977774970661694, "expected_final_county_share_points": 3.977774970661694, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 33.863682428690794, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 33.863682428690794, "required_final_county_share_points": 33.863682428690794, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 33.863682428690794, "p90": 89.37896963558745 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 870.0690088140929, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 33.863682428690794, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 33.863682428690794, "required_final_county_share_points": 33.863682428690794, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 33.863682428690794, "p90": 89.37896963558745 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 34.500179277232114, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 34.500179277232114, "required_final_county_share_points": 34.500179277232114, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.159018308558073, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999906, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 35.13548073892272, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 35.13548073892272, "required_final_county_share_points": 35.13548073892272, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.213613509684069, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.999999999999993, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -29.8859074580291, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "WELL BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.05228098268762563, "criticality_score": 0.0017493523581657182, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 46.330366243965706, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 46.330366243965706, "feasible": true, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 82.99460341783411, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 82.99460341783411, "feasible": true, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 102.15964986386246, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } } } }, { "cid": "26125", "county": "26125", "fips": null, "reporting": 0.0, "current_votes": 0, "current_candidate_votes": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 0, "Haley Stevens": 0, "Mallory McMorrow": 0 }, "current_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": null, "Haley Stevens": null, "Mallory McMorrow": null }, "estimated_remaining_votes": 58294.288272976875, "estimated_final_votes": 58294.288272976875, "turnout_disagreement_votes": 0.0, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 48.44529292257174, "Haley Stevens": 48.29116444492259, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.2635426325056844 }, "remaining_sources": [ { "model": "market", "remaining_votes": 58294.288272976875, "weight": 0.1780093144963334 } ], "share_sources": [ { "model": "v0", "weight": 0.03630604611298715, "source": "statewide raw" }, { "model": "v3", "weight": 0.06301781787712588, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "market", "weight": 0.18729675699179427, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "histgeo", "weight": 0.02760802595386354, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "latent", "weight": 0.03563066882913146, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "batchbias", "weight": 0.020512372723621893, "source": "statewide fallback" } ], "candidate_benchmarks": { "Abdul El-Sayed": { "opponent": "Haley Stevens", "expected_remaining_share_points": 48.44529292257174, "expected_final_county_share_points": 48.44529292257174, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 47.20377120432641, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 47.20377120432641, "required_final_county_share_points": 47.20377120432641, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 47.20377120432641, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 8.839685299455613, "feasible": true, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": false }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 47.20377120432641, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 47.20377120432641, "required_final_county_share_points": 47.20377120432641, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 47.20377120432641, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 47.86382063640788, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 47.86382063640788, "required_final_county_share_points": 47.86382063640788, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.024044322225107804, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999973, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.52412530103267, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.52412530103267, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.524125301032676, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.003259695682198218, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.9999999999999996, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": 1.2415217182453304, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "ABOVE", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.04748398581529103, "criticality_score": 0.03824660101991705, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1.8140960439252893, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 1.8140960439252893, "feasible": true, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 42.18228157069173, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 42.18228157069173, "feasible": true, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 63.28344745322575, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 63.28344745322575, "feasible": true, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false } } }, "Haley Stevens": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 48.29116444492259, "expected_final_county_share_points": 48.291164444922586, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 49.53268616316792, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 49.53268616316792, "required_final_county_share_points": 49.53268616316792, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 49.53268616316792, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 87.89677206803871, "feasible": true, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": false }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 49.53268616316792, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 49.53268616316792, "required_final_county_share_points": 49.53268616316792, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 49.53268616316792, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 50.192473968431194, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 50.192473968431194, "required_final_county_share_points": 50.192473968431194, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.07865391656842785, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.999999999999999, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 50.85199375122856, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 50.85199375122856, "required_final_county_share_points": 50.85199375122856, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.10597932088248406, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -1.2415217182453233, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.04748398581529103, "criticality_score": 0.038246601019917274, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 94.92236132356905, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 94.92236132356905, "feasible": true, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 135.2905468503355, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 156.3917127328695, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Mallory McMorrow": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 3.2635426325056844, "expected_final_county_share_points": 3.263542632505684, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 31.052247924277015, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 31.052247924277015, "required_final_county_share_points": 31.052247924277015, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 31.052247924277015, "p90": 92.17588191432183 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 956.850315626011, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 31.052247924277015, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 31.052247924277015, "required_final_county_share_points": 31.052247924277015, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 31.052247924277015, "p90": 92.17588191432183 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 31.71537621950914, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 31.71537621950914, "required_final_county_share_points": 31.715376219509146, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.159018308558073, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999906, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 32.380589865647586, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 32.380589865647586, "required_final_county_share_points": 32.380589865647586, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.213613509684069, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.999999999999993, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -27.78870529177133, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "WELL BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.04748398581529103, "criticality_score": 0.0017087512828225136, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 49.89473951115213, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 49.89473951115213, "feasible": true, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 90.26292503791858, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 90.26292503791858, "feasible": true, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 111.3640909204526, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } } } }, { "cid": "fips:26125", "county": "Oakland", "fips": "26125", "reporting": 76.49, "current_votes": 189661, "current_candidate_votes": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 90108, "Haley Stevens": 94384, "Mallory McMorrow": 5169 }, "current_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 47.51003105540939, "Haley Stevens": 49.764579961088465, "Mallory McMorrow": 2.7253889835021434 }, "estimated_remaining_votes": 58294.28827297687, "estimated_final_votes": 247955.28827297688, "turnout_disagreement_votes": 7.275957614183426e-12, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 48.05095048633834, "Haley Stevens": 48.926352045629464, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.022697468032217 }, "remaining_sources": [ { "model": "v3", "remaining_votes": 58294.288272976875, "weight": 0.1342208488636769 }, { "model": "histgeo", "remaining_votes": 58294.288272976875, "weight": 0.05994207394479305 }, { "model": "latent", "remaining_votes": 58294.288272976875, "weight": 0.07672787409296966 }, { "model": "batchbias", "remaining_votes": 58294.288272976875, "weight": 0.045123489075924846 } ], "share_sources": [ { "model": "v0", "weight": 0.03630604611298715, "source": "statewide raw" }, { "model": "v1", "weight": 0.14599140026529184, "source": "county live" }, { "model": "v3", "weight": 0.15004242351696637, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "market", "weight": 0.0786646379365536, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "histgeo", "weight": 0.06573339512824654, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "latent", "weight": 0.08483492578364633, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "batchbias", "weight": 0.04883898267529022, "source": "county remaining" } ], "candidate_benchmarks": { "Abdul El-Sayed": { "opponent": "Haley Stevens", "expected_remaining_share_points": 48.05095048633834, "expected_final_county_share_points": 47.637201213620784, "current_county_share_points": 47.51003105540939, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 46.806775165819126, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 46.806775165819126, "required_final_county_share_points": 47.34469559576671, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 46.806775165819126, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 8.445342863222184, "feasible": true, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": false }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 46.806775165819126, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 46.806775165819126, "required_final_county_share_points": 47.34469559576671, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 46.806775165819126, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 47.46815093345519, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 47.46815093345519, "required_final_county_share_points": 47.50018503873796, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.024044322225107804, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999973, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.129974262940294, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.129974262940294, "required_final_county_share_points": 47.6557797034999, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.003259695682198218, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.9999999999999996, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": 1.2441753205192114, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "ABOVE", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.04748398581529102, "criticality_score": 0.038165027896129064, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1.4197536076918809, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 1.4197536076918809, "feasible": true, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 41.78793913445833, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 41.78793913445833, "feasible": true, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 62.889105016992346, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 62.889105016992346, "feasible": true, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false } } }, "Haley Stevens": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 48.926352045629464, "expected_final_county_share_points": 49.567512578164056, "current_county_share_points": 49.764579961088465, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 50.170527366148676, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 50.170527366148676, "required_final_county_share_points": 49.86001819601812, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 50.170527366148676, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 88.53195966874561, "feasible": true, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": false }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 50.170527366148676, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 50.170527366148676, "required_final_county_share_points": 49.86001819601812, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 50.170527366148676, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 50.831449473251624, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 50.831449473251624, "required_final_county_share_points": 50.01540098339802, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.07865391656842785, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.999999999999999, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 51.4919118268501, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 51.4919118268501, "required_final_county_share_points": 50.170675682729026, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.10597932088248406, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -1.2441753205192114, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.04748398581529102, "criticality_score": 0.038165027896129064, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 95.55754892427592, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 95.55754892427592, "feasible": true, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 135.92573445104236, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 157.0269003335764, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Mallory McMorrow": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 3.022697468032217, "expected_final_county_share_points": 2.7952862082151637, "current_county_share_points": 2.7253889835021434, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 29.826151683555835, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 29.826151683555835, "required_final_county_share_points": 9.096778294284768, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 29.826151683555835, "p90": 90.94978567360067 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 956.6094704615377, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 29.826151683555835, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 29.826151683555835, "required_final_county_share_points": 9.096778294284768, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 29.826151683555835, "p90": 90.94978567360067 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 30.490052066337945, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 30.490052066337945, "required_final_county_share_points": 9.25286127427684, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.159018308558073, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999906, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 31.157221746726655, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 31.157221746726655, "required_final_county_share_points": 9.409712866136227, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.213613509684069, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.999999999999993, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -26.80345421552362, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "WELL BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.04748398581529102, "criticality_score": 0.001771562181257592, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 49.653894346678676, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 49.653894346678676, "feasible": true, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 90.02207987344512, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 90.02207987344512, "feasible": true, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 111.12324575597916, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } } } }, { "cid": "26081", "county": "26081", "fips": null, "reporting": 0.0, "current_votes": 0, "current_candidate_votes": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 0, "Haley Stevens": 0, "Mallory McMorrow": 0 }, "current_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": null, "Haley Stevens": null, "Mallory McMorrow": null }, "estimated_remaining_votes": 46918.32971673878, "estimated_final_votes": 46918.32971673878, "turnout_disagreement_votes": 0.0, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 55.5704454339816, "Haley Stevens": 40.684312848059704, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.7452417179586988 }, "remaining_sources": [ { "model": "market", "remaining_votes": 46918.32971673878, "weight": 0.1780093144963334 } ], "share_sources": [ { "model": "v0", "weight": 0.03630604611298715, "source": "statewide raw" }, { "model": "v3", "weight": 0.06301781787712588, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "market", "weight": 0.18729675699179427, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "histgeo", "weight": 0.02760802595386354, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "latent", "weight": 0.03563066882913146, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "batchbias", "weight": 0.020512372723621893, "source": "statewide fallback" } ], "candidate_benchmarks": { "Abdul El-Sayed": { "opponent": "Haley Stevens", "expected_remaining_share_points": 55.5704454339816, "expected_final_county_share_points": 55.5704454339816, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 54.35989329691363, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 54.35989329691363, "required_final_county_share_points": 54.35989329691363, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 54.35989329691363, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 6.36194372586022, "feasible": true, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": false }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 54.35989329691363, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 54.35989329691363, "required_final_county_share_points": 54.35989329691363, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 54.35989329691363, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 55.00466430849242, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 55.00466430849242, "required_final_county_share_points": 55.00466430849242, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.024044322225107804, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999973, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 55.64699026577373, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 55.64699026577373, "required_final_county_share_points": 55.64699026577373, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.003259695682198218, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.9999999999999996, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": 1.210552137067964, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "ABOVE", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.038217625924417215, "criticality_score": 0.03157040886895032, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -2.367090914162368, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 47.788885617005285, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 47.788885617005285, "feasible": true, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 74.00630329318261, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 74.00630329318261, "feasible": true, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false } } }, "Haley Stevens": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 40.684312848059704, "expected_final_county_share_points": 40.684312848059704, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 41.89486498512767, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 41.89486498512767, "required_final_county_share_points": 41.89486498512767, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 41.89486498512767, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 89.8928145561811, "feasible": true, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": false }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 41.89486498512767, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 41.89486498512767, "required_final_county_share_points": 41.89486498512767, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 41.89486498512767, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 42.542088607376265, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 42.542088607376265, "required_final_county_share_points": 42.542088607376265, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.07865391656842785, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.999999999999999, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 43.191772393951084, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 43.191772393951084, "required_final_county_share_points": 43.191772393951084, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.10597932088248406, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -1.210552137067964, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.038217625924417215, "criticality_score": 0.03157040886895032, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 98.62184919620367, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 98.62184919620367, "feasible": true, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 148.7778257273713, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 174.99524340354864, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Mallory McMorrow": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 3.7452417179586988, "expected_final_county_share_points": 3.7452417179586983, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 35.62681895925808, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 35.62681895925808, "required_final_county_share_points": 35.62681895925808, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 35.62681895925808, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1188.5415158775038, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 35.62681895925808, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 35.62681895925808, "required_final_county_share_points": 35.62681895925808, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 35.62681895925808, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 36.38742530155471, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 36.38742530155471, "required_final_county_share_points": 36.38742530155471, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.159018308558073, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999906, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 37.15041458783238, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 37.15041458783238, "required_final_county_share_points": 37.15041458783238, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.213613509684069, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.999999999999993, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -31.881577241299382, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "WELL BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.038217625924417215, "criticality_score": 0.00119873698955239, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 61.682778066102664, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 61.682778066102664, "feasible": true, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 111.83875459727031, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 138.05617227344763, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } } } }, { "cid": "fips:26081", "county": "Kent", "fips": "26081", "reporting": 53.71, "current_votes": 44593, "current_candidate_votes": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 28845, "Haley Stevens": 14106, "Mallory McMorrow": 1642 }, "current_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 64.6850402529545, "Haley Stevens": 31.632767474715763, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.682192272329738 }, "estimated_remaining_votes": 46918.32971673878, "estimated_final_votes": 91511.32971673878, "turnout_disagreement_votes": 0.0, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 58.955819082444094, "Haley Stevens": 37.253445813321854, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.790735104234047 }, "remaining_sources": [ { "model": "v3", "remaining_votes": 46918.32971673878, "weight": 0.1342208488636769 }, { "model": "histgeo", "remaining_votes": 46918.32971673878, "weight": 0.05994207394479305 }, { "model": "latent", "remaining_votes": 46918.32971673878, "weight": 0.07672787409296966 }, { "model": "batchbias", "remaining_votes": 46918.32971673878, "weight": 0.045123489075924846 } ], "share_sources": [ { "model": "v0", "weight": 0.03630604611298715, "source": "statewide raw" }, { "model": "v1", "weight": 0.14599140026529184, "source": "county live" }, { "model": "v3", "weight": 0.15004242351696637, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "market", "weight": 0.0786646379365536, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "histgeo", "weight": 0.06573339512824654, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "latent", "weight": 0.08483492578364633, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "batchbias", "weight": 0.04883898267529022, "source": "county remaining" } ], "candidate_benchmarks": { "Abdul El-Sayed": { "opponent": "Haley Stevens", "expected_remaining_share_points": 58.955819082444094, "expected_final_county_share_points": 61.74763907290193, "current_county_share_points": 64.6850402529545, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 57.77711302226799, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 57.77711302226799, "required_final_county_share_points": 61.143310409537044, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 57.77711302226799, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 9.747317374322684, "feasible": true, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": false }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 57.77711302226799, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 57.77711302226799, "required_final_county_share_points": 61.143310409537044, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 57.77711302226799, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 58.405458715229976, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 58.405458715229976, "required_final_county_share_points": 61.46546648015406, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.024044322225107804, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999973, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 59.03020543489404, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 59.03020543489404, "required_final_county_share_points": 61.78577733863882, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.003259695682198218, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.9999999999999996, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": 1.1787060601761041, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "ABOVE", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.038217625924417215, "criticality_score": 0.03242337272679104, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1.0182827343001293, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 1.0182827343001293, "feasible": true, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 51.17425926546778, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 51.17425926546778, "feasible": true, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 77.3916769416451, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 77.3916769416451, "feasible": true, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false } } }, "Haley Stevens": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 37.253445813321854, "expected_final_county_share_points": 34.514518186225914, "current_county_share_points": 31.632767474715763, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 38.43215187349795, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 38.43215187349795, "required_final_county_share_points": 35.1188468495908, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 38.43215187349795, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 86.46194752144328, "feasible": true, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": false }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 38.43215187349795, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 38.43215187349795, "required_final_county_share_points": 35.1188468495908, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 38.43215187349795, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 39.064121442744295, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 39.064121442744295, "required_final_county_share_points": 35.4428609002294, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.07865391656842785, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.999999999999999, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 39.699739995801586, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 39.699739995801586, "required_final_county_share_points": 35.7687458036477, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.10597932088248406, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -1.178706060176097, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.038217625924417215, "criticality_score": 0.03242337272679124, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 95.19098216146583, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 95.19098216146583, "feasible": true, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 145.34695869263345, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 171.5643763688108, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Mallory McMorrow": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 3.790735104234047, "expected_final_county_share_points": 3.737842740872142, "current_county_share_points": 3.682192272329738, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 36.97590735309191, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 36.97590735309191, "required_final_county_share_points": 20.752051343218415, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 36.97590735309191, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1188.5870092637788, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 36.97590735309191, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 36.97590735309191, "required_final_county_share_points": 20.752051343218415, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 36.97590735309191, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 37.78822483357291, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 37.78822483357291, "required_final_county_share_points": 21.16853069612314, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.159018308558073, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999906, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 38.60407803748941, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 38.60407803748941, "required_final_county_share_points": 21.586822832630144, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.213613509684069, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.999999999999993, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -33.18517224885787, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "WELL BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.038217625924417215, "criticality_score": 0.0011516476587139772, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 61.72827145237801, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 61.72827145237801, "feasible": true, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 111.88424798354565, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 138.10166565972298, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } } } }, { "cid": "fips:26077", "county": "Kalamazoo", "fips": "26077", "reporting": 3.45, "current_votes": 1425, "current_candidate_votes": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 672, "Haley Stevens": 684, "Mallory McMorrow": 69 }, "current_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 47.1578947368421, "Haley Stevens": 48.0, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.842105263157895 }, "estimated_remaining_votes": 42085.15108479823, "estimated_final_votes": 43510.15108479823, "turnout_disagreement_votes": 0.0, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 48.734671319991016, "Haley Stevens": 47.095753229273704, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.169575450735297 }, "remaining_sources": [ { "model": "v3", "remaining_votes": 42085.15108479823, "weight": 0.1342208488636769 }, { "model": "histgeo", "remaining_votes": 42085.15108479823, "weight": 0.05994207394479305 }, { "model": "latent", "remaining_votes": 42085.15108479823, "weight": 0.07672787409296966 }, { "model": "batchbias", "remaining_votes": 42085.15108479823, "weight": 0.045123489075924846 } ], "share_sources": [ { "model": "v0", "weight": 0.03630604611298715, "source": "statewide raw" }, { "model": "v1", "weight": 0.14599140026529184, "source": "county live" }, { "model": "v3", "weight": 0.15004242351696637, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "market", "weight": 0.0786646379365536, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "histgeo", "weight": 0.06573339512824654, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "latent", "weight": 0.08483492578364633, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "batchbias", "weight": 0.04883898267529022, "source": "county remaining" } ], "candidate_benchmarks": { "Abdul El-Sayed": { "opponent": "Haley Stevens", "expected_remaining_share_points": 48.734671319991016, "expected_final_county_share_points": 48.68303034483999, "current_county_share_points": 47.1578947368421, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 47.504644632416884, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 47.504644632416884, "required_final_county_share_points": 47.49328823422302, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 47.504644632416884, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": -6.12507489682379, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": false }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 47.504644632416884, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 47.504644632416884, "required_final_county_share_points": 47.49328823422302, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 47.504644632416884, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.158704730197464, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.158704730197464, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.12592722414487, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.024044322225107804, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999973, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.812740738343926, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.812740738343926, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.75854291339167, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.003259695682198218, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.9999999999999996, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": 1.2300266875741315, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "ABOVE", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.03428072931926182, "criticality_score": 0.027869906942320537, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -15.856576739937118, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 40.05945500752544, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 40.05945500752544, "feasible": true, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 69.28775561107643, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 69.28775561107643, "feasible": true, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false } } }, "Haley Stevens": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 47.095753229273704, "expected_final_county_share_points": 47.12536819534848, "current_county_share_points": 48.0, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.325779916847814, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.325779916847814, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.31511030596544, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 48.325779916847814, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 101.95549944608851, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.325779916847814, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.325779916847814, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.31511030596544, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 48.325779916847814, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.97985761860826, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.97985761860826, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.947766323319584, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.07865391656842785, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.999999999999999, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 49.633946426461115, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 49.633946426461115, "required_final_county_share_points": 49.58043308303077, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.10597932088248406, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -1.2300266875741102, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.03428072931926182, "criticality_score": 0.02786990694232102, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 111.68700128920185, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 167.60303303666439, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 196.83133364021538, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Mallory McMorrow": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 4.169575450735297, "expected_final_county_share_points": 4.191601459811534, "current_county_share_points": 4.842105263157895, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 34.71907000596008, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 34.71907000596008, "required_final_county_share_points": 33.74057019161749, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 34.71907000596008, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1325.0312286778897, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 34.71907000596008, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 34.71907000596008, "required_final_county_share_points": 33.74057019161749, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 34.71907000596008, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 35.35515269829529, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 35.35515269829529, "required_final_county_share_points": 34.355820553703815, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.159018308558073, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999906, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 35.98944958427998, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 35.98944958427998, "required_final_county_share_points": 34.969343596344075, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.213613509684069, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.999999999999993, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -30.54949455522478, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "WELL BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.03428072931926182, "criticality_score": 0.0011221373649011454, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 68.76082351066343, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 68.76082351066343, "feasible": true, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 124.67685525812597, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 153.90515586167697, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } } } }, { "cid": "26077", "county": "26077", "fips": null, "reporting": 0.0, "current_votes": 0, "current_candidate_votes": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 0, "Haley Stevens": 0, "Mallory McMorrow": 0 }, "current_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": null, "Haley Stevens": null, "Mallory McMorrow": null }, "estimated_remaining_votes": 42085.15108479823, "estimated_final_votes": 42085.15108479823, "turnout_disagreement_votes": 0.0, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 50.90024768957419, "Haley Stevens": 45.17966253889734, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.9200897715284615 }, "remaining_sources": [ { "model": "market", "remaining_votes": 42085.15108479823, "weight": 0.1780093144963334 } ], "share_sources": [ { "model": "v0", "weight": 0.03630604611298715, "source": "statewide raw" }, { "model": "v3", "weight": 0.06301781787712588, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "market", "weight": 0.18729675699179427, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "histgeo", "weight": 0.02760802595386354, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "latent", "weight": 0.03563066882913146, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "batchbias", "weight": 0.020512372723621893, "source": "statewide fallback" } ], "candidate_benchmarks": { "Abdul El-Sayed": { "opponent": "Haley Stevens", "expected_remaining_share_points": 50.90024768957419, "expected_final_county_share_points": 50.9002476895742, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 49.669690025912665, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 49.669690025912665, "required_final_county_share_points": 49.66969002591267, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 49.669690025912665, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": -3.9594985272406014, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": false }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 49.669690025912665, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 49.669690025912665, "required_final_county_share_points": 49.66969002591267, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 49.669690025912665, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 50.3243665304265, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 50.3243665304265, "required_final_county_share_points": 50.3243665304265, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.024044322225107804, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999973, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 50.978260301772785, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 50.978260301772785, "required_final_county_share_points": 50.978260301772785, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.003259695682198218, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.9999999999999996, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": 1.2305576636615285, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "ABOVE", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.03428072931926182, "criticality_score": 0.027857881293639985, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -13.69100037035394, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 42.22503137710862, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 42.22503137710862, "feasible": true, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 71.45333198065961, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 71.45333198065961, "feasible": true, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false } } }, "Haley Stevens": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 45.17966253889734, "expected_final_county_share_points": 45.17966253889735, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 46.41022020255887, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 46.41022020255887, "required_final_county_share_points": 46.41022020255887, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 46.41022020255887, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 100.03940875571213, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 46.41022020255887, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 46.41022020255887, "required_final_county_share_points": 46.41022020255887, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 46.41022020255887, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 47.065674342109794, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 47.065674342109794, "required_final_county_share_points": 47.0656743421098, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.07865391656842785, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.999999999999999, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 47.7219009794269, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 47.7219009794269, "required_final_county_share_points": 47.7219009794269, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.10597932088248406, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -1.2305576636615285, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.03428072931926182, "criticality_score": 0.027857881293639985, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 109.77091059882548, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 165.68694234628802, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 194.915242949839, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Mallory McMorrow": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 3.9200897715284615, "expected_final_county_share_points": 3.9200897715284615, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 34.655365995069495, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 34.655365995069495, "required_final_county_share_points": 34.655365995069495, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 34.655365995069495, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1324.781742998683, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 34.655365995069495, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 34.655365995069495, "required_final_county_share_points": 34.655365995069495, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 34.655365995069495, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 35.33567012761816, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 35.33567012761816, "required_final_county_share_points": 35.33567012761816, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.159018308558073, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999906, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 36.01580912167236, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 36.01580912167236, "required_final_county_share_points": 36.01580912167236, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.213613509684069, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.999999999999993, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -30.735276223541035, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "WELL BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.03428072931926182, "criticality_score": 0.001115354521948471, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 68.5113378314566, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 68.5113378314566, "feasible": true, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 124.42736957891914, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 153.65567018247015, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } } } }, { "cid": "26065", "county": "26065", "fips": null, "reporting": 0.0, "current_votes": 0, "current_candidate_votes": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 0, "Haley Stevens": 0, "Mallory McMorrow": 0 }, "current_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": null, "Haley Stevens": null, "Mallory McMorrow": null }, "estimated_remaining_votes": 38632.62316125496, "estimated_final_votes": 38632.62316125496, "turnout_disagreement_votes": 0.0, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 54.99777016776418, "Haley Stevens": 41.14031902440786, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.861910807827952 }, "remaining_sources": [ { "model": "market", "remaining_votes": 38632.62316125496, "weight": 0.1780093144963334 } ], "share_sources": [ { "model": "v0", "weight": 0.03630604611298715, "source": "statewide raw" }, { "model": "v3", "weight": 0.06301781787712588, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "market", "weight": 0.18729675699179427, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "histgeo", "weight": 0.02760802595386354, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "latent", "weight": 0.03563066882913146, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "batchbias", "weight": 0.020512372723621893, "source": "statewide fallback" } ], "candidate_benchmarks": { "Abdul El-Sayed": { "opponent": "Haley Stevens", "expected_remaining_share_points": 54.99777016776418, "expected_final_county_share_points": 54.99777016776418, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 53.785122988624344, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 53.785122988624344, "required_final_county_share_points": 53.785122988624344, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 53.785122988624344, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": -4.764692721989583, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": false }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 53.785122988624344, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 53.785122988624344, "required_final_county_share_points": 53.785122988624344, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 53.785122988624344, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 54.43092810739958, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 54.43092810739958, "required_final_county_share_points": 54.43092810739958, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.024044322225107804, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999973, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 55.07446955736345, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 55.07446955736345, "required_final_county_share_points": 55.07446955736345, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.003259695682198218, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.9999999999999996, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": 1.2126471791398359, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "ABOVE", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.031468450589984986, "criticality_score": 0.02595021134861867, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -15.36588135057223, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 45.54726540448473, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 45.54726540448473, "feasible": true, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 77.38764656933402, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 77.38764656933402, "feasible": true, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false } } }, "Haley Stevens": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 41.14031902440786, "expected_final_county_share_points": 41.14031902440786, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 42.35296620354768, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 42.35296620354768, "required_final_county_share_points": 42.35296620354768, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 42.35296620354768, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 100.90278191416162, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 42.35296620354768, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 42.35296620354768, "required_final_county_share_points": 42.35296620354768, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 42.35296620354768, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 43.00104051727138, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 43.00104051727138, "required_final_county_share_points": 43.00104051727138, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.07865391656842785, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.999999999999999, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 43.65138953432688, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 43.65138953432688, "required_final_county_share_points": 43.65138953432688, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.10597932088248406, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -1.2126471791398217, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.031468450589984986, "criticality_score": 0.025950211348618975, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 111.50397054274427, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 172.4171172978012, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 204.25749846265052, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Mallory McMorrow": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 3.861910807827952, "expected_final_county_share_points": 3.861910807827952, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 35.929829627630944, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 35.929829627630944, "required_final_county_share_points": 35.929829627630944, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 35.929829627630944, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1442.7665900513427, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 35.929829627630944, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 35.929829627630944, "required_final_county_share_points": 35.929829627630944, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 35.929829627630944, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 36.67768764353921, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 36.67768764353921, "required_final_county_share_points": 36.67768764353921, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.159018308558073, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999906, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 37.42710211756107, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 37.42710211756107, "required_final_county_share_points": 37.42710211756107, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.213613509684069, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.999999999999993, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -32.06791881980299, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "WELL BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.031468450589984986, "criticality_score": 0.0009813062945186262, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 74.22556232616436, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 74.22556232616436, "feasible": true, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 135.1387090812213, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 166.9790902460706, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } } } }, { "cid": "fips:26065", "county": "Ingham", "fips": "26065", "reporting": 34.23, "current_votes": 18881, "current_candidate_votes": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 12359, "Haley Stevens": 5816, "Mallory McMorrow": 706 }, "current_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 65.45733806472114, "Haley Stevens": 30.8034532069276, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.7392087283512523 }, "estimated_remaining_votes": 38632.62316125496, "estimated_final_votes": 57513.62316125496, "turnout_disagreement_votes": 0.0, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 58.788481646433965, "Haley Stevens": 37.46941742968788, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.742100923878158 }, "remaining_sources": [ { "model": "v3", "remaining_votes": 38632.62316125496, "weight": 0.1342208488636769 }, { "model": "histgeo", "remaining_votes": 38632.62316125496, "weight": 0.05994207394479305 }, { "model": "latent", "remaining_votes": 38632.62316125496, "weight": 0.07672787409296966 }, { "model": "batchbias", "remaining_votes": 38632.62316125496, "weight": 0.045123489075924846 } ], "share_sources": [ { "model": "v0", "weight": 0.03630604611298715, "source": "statewide raw" }, { "model": "v1", "weight": 0.14599140026529184, "source": "county live" }, { "model": "v3", "weight": 0.15004242351696637, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "market", "weight": 0.0786646379365536, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "histgeo", "weight": 0.06573339512824654, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "latent", "weight": 0.08483492578364633, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "batchbias", "weight": 0.04883898267529022, "source": "county remaining" } ], "candidate_benchmarks": { "Abdul El-Sayed": { "opponent": "Haley Stevens", "expected_remaining_share_points": 58.788481646433965, "expected_final_county_share_points": 60.97778343464934, "current_county_share_points": 65.45733806472114, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 57.60702941012321, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 57.60702941012321, "required_final_county_share_points": 60.18418712616352, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 57.60702941012321, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": -0.9739812433198602, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": false }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 57.60702941012321, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 57.60702941012321, "required_final_county_share_points": 60.18418712616352, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 57.60702941012321, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 58.23680794169639, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 58.23680794169639, "required_final_county_share_points": 60.607217277074035, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.024044322225107804, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999973, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 58.863049687974744, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 58.863049687974744, "required_final_county_share_points": 61.02787172487304, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.003259695682198218, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.9999999999999996, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": 1.1814522363107542, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "ABOVE", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.031468450589984986, "criticality_score": 0.02663539804897193, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -11.575169871902446, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 49.33797688315452, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 49.33797688315452, "feasible": true, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 81.1783580480038, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 81.1783580480038, "feasible": true, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false } } }, "Haley Stevens": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 37.46941742968788, "expected_final_county_share_points": 35.28106511293235, "current_county_share_points": 30.8034532069276, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 38.650869665998634, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 38.650869665998634, "required_final_county_share_points": 36.074661421418156, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 38.650869665998634, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 97.2318803194417, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 38.650869665998634, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 38.650869665998634, "required_final_county_share_points": 36.074661421418156, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 38.650869665998634, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 39.28420873044954, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 39.28420873044954, "required_final_county_share_points": 36.50008322698989, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.07865391656842785, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.999999999999999, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 39.921132262353645, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 39.921132262353645, "required_final_county_share_points": 36.92791276437788, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.10597932088248406, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -1.1814522363107542, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.031468450589984986, "criticality_score": 0.02663539804897193, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 107.83306894802429, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 168.74621570308125, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 200.58659686793055, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Mallory McMorrow": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 3.742100923878158, "expected_final_county_share_points": 3.7411514524183196, "current_county_share_points": 3.7392087283512523, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 36.696095482698844, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 36.696095482698844, "required_final_county_share_points": 25.87676356434333, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 36.696095482698844, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1442.6467801673932, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 36.696095482698844, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 36.696095482698844, "required_final_county_share_points": 25.87676356434333, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 36.696095482698844, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 37.50716003370873, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 37.50716003370873, "required_final_county_share_points": 26.421565811817203, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.159018308558073, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999906, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 38.32196796166269, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 38.32196796166269, "required_final_county_share_points": 26.968882532608575, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.213613509684069, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.999999999999993, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -32.95399455882069, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "WELL BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.031468450589984986, "criticality_score": 0.0009549206708102077, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 74.10575244221457, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 74.10575244221457, "feasible": true, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 135.0188991972715, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 166.8592803621208, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } } } }, { "cid": "fips:26161", "county": "Washtenaw", "fips": "26161", "reporting": 64.95, "current_votes": 58927, "current_candidate_votes": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 37769, "Haley Stevens": 19283, "Mallory McMorrow": 1875 }, "current_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 64.0945576730531, "Haley Stevens": 32.72353929438118, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.1819030325657165 }, "estimated_remaining_votes": 36375.12128089261, "estimated_final_votes": 95302.1212808926, "turnout_disagreement_votes": 0.0, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 59.70931040800656, "Haley Stevens": 36.93183416316839, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.358855428825059 }, "remaining_sources": [ { "model": "v3", "remaining_votes": 36375.12128089261, "weight": 0.1342208488636769 }, { "model": "histgeo", "remaining_votes": 36375.12128089261, "weight": 0.05994207394479305 }, { "model": "latent", "remaining_votes": 36375.12128089261, "weight": 0.07672787409296966 }, { "model": "batchbias", "remaining_votes": 36375.12128089261, "weight": 0.045123489075924846 } ], "share_sources": [ { "model": "v0", "weight": 0.03630604611298715, "source": "statewide raw" }, { "model": "v1", "weight": 0.14599140026529184, "source": "county live" }, { "model": "v3", "weight": 0.15004242351696637, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "market", "weight": 0.0786646379365536, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "histgeo", "weight": 0.06573339512824654, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "latent", "weight": 0.08483492578364633, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "batchbias", "weight": 0.04883898267529022, "source": "county remaining" } ], "candidate_benchmarks": { "Abdul El-Sayed": { "opponent": "Haley Stevens", "expected_remaining_share_points": 59.70931040800656, "expected_final_county_share_points": 62.420786942991164, "current_county_share_points": 64.0945576730531, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 58.53082666603289, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 58.53082666603289, "required_final_county_share_points": 61.970980700845665, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 58.53082666603289, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": -3.7621125511002274, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": false }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 58.53082666603289, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 58.53082666603289, "required_final_county_share_points": 61.970980700845665, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 58.53082666603289, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 59.1591304661044, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 59.1591304661044, "required_final_county_share_points": 62.210793064113915, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.024044322225107804, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999973, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 59.78366208045847, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 59.78366208045847, "required_final_county_share_points": 62.44916565131922, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.003259695682198218, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.9999999999999996, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": 1.1784837419736718, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "ABOVE", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.029629587976839223, "criticality_score": 0.02514212705829689, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -15.021228972645943, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 49.67229124911234, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 49.67229124911234, "feasible": true, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 83.48874061167396, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 83.48874061167396, "feasible": true, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false } } }, "Haley Stevens": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 36.93183416316839, "expected_final_county_share_points": 34.3297704483207, "current_county_share_points": 32.72353929438118, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 38.110317905142054, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 38.110317905142054, "required_final_county_share_points": 34.7795766904662, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 38.110317905142054, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 100.40325712227518, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 38.110317905142054, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 38.110317905142054, "required_final_county_share_points": 34.7795766904662, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 38.110317905142054, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 38.74242188266314, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 38.74242188266314, "required_final_county_share_points": 35.020839513742665, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.07865391656842785, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.999999999999999, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 39.378354281914575, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 39.378354281914575, "required_final_county_share_points": 35.26356357736597, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.10597932088248406, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -1.1784837419736647, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.029629587976839223, "criticality_score": 0.02514212705829704, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 111.66237354382089, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 176.35589376557917, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 210.1723431281408, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Mallory McMorrow": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 3.358855428825059, "expected_final_county_share_points": 3.2494426086881285, "current_county_share_points": 3.1819030325657165, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 35.10368748023869, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 35.10368748023869, "required_final_county_share_points": 15.365879267094925, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 35.10368748023869, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1531.5644058356409, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 35.10368748023869, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 35.10368748023869, "required_final_county_share_points": 15.365879267094925, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 35.10368748023869, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 35.937715925702456, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 35.937715925702456, "required_final_county_share_points": 15.684213061219415, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.159018308558073, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999906, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 36.77832079129234, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 36.77832079129234, "required_final_county_share_points": 16.00505695770539, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.213613509684069, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.999999999999993, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -31.74483205141363, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "WELL BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.029629587976839223, "criticality_score": 0.0009333672935755786, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 78.08939480947757, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 78.08939480947757, "feasible": true, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 142.78291503123583, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 176.59936439379746, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } } } }, { "cid": "26161", "county": "26161", "fips": null, "reporting": 0.0, "current_votes": 0, "current_candidate_votes": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 0, "Haley Stevens": 0, "Mallory McMorrow": 0 }, "current_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": null, "Haley Stevens": null, "Mallory McMorrow": null }, "estimated_remaining_votes": 36375.12128089261, "estimated_final_votes": 36375.12128089261, "turnout_disagreement_votes": 0.0, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 55.250256384218766, "Haley Stevens": 41.28135115729634, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.4683924584848826 }, "remaining_sources": [ { "model": "market", "remaining_votes": 36375.12128089261, "weight": 0.1780093144963334 } ], "share_sources": [ { "model": "v0", "weight": 0.03630604611298715, "source": "statewide raw" }, { "model": "v3", "weight": 0.06301781787712588, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "market", "weight": 0.18729675699179427, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "histgeo", "weight": 0.02760802595386354, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "latent", "weight": 0.03563066882913146, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "batchbias", "weight": 0.020512372723621893, "source": "statewide fallback" } ], "candidate_benchmarks": { "Abdul El-Sayed": { "opponent": "Haley Stevens", "expected_remaining_share_points": 55.250256384218766, "expected_final_county_share_points": 55.250256384218766, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 54.03283138290259, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 54.03283138290259, "required_final_county_share_points": 54.03283138290259, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 54.03283138290259, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": -8.22116657488804, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": false }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 54.03283138290259, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 54.03283138290259, "required_final_county_share_points": 54.03283138290259, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 54.03283138290259, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 54.6811853966236, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 54.6811853966236, "required_final_county_share_points": 54.6811853966236, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.024044322225107804, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999973, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 55.32725677303125, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 55.32725677303125, "required_final_county_share_points": 55.32725677303125, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.003259695682198218, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.9999999999999996, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": 1.2174250013161725, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "ABOVE", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.029629587976839223, "criticality_score": 0.024337916458760357, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -19.480282996433736, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 45.21323722532455, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 45.21323722532455, "feasible": true, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 79.02968658788618, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 79.02968658788618, "feasible": true, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false } } }, "Haley Stevens": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 41.28135115729634, "expected_final_county_share_points": 41.28135115729634, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 42.498776158612515, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 42.498776158612515, "required_final_county_share_points": 42.498776158612515, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 42.498776158612515, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 104.75277411640316, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 42.498776158612515, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 42.498776158612515, "required_final_county_share_points": 42.498776158612515, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 42.498776158612515, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 43.14941846403302, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 43.14941846403302, "required_final_county_share_points": 43.14941846403302, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.07865391656842785, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.999999999999999, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 43.802354698439075, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 43.802354698439075, "required_final_county_share_points": 43.802354698439075, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.10597932088248406, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -1.2174250013161725, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.029629587976839223, "criticality_score": 0.024337916458760357, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 116.01189053794884, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 180.70541075970712, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 214.52186012226875, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Mallory McMorrow": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 3.4683924584848826, "expected_final_county_share_points": 3.4683924584848826, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 34.26117635214319, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 34.26117635214319, "required_final_county_share_points": 34.26117635214319, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 34.26117635214319, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1531.6739428653004, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 34.26117635214319, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 34.26117635214319, "required_final_county_share_points": 34.26117635214319, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 34.26117635214319, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 35.02473832137051, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 35.02473832137051, "required_final_county_share_points": 35.02473832137051, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.159018308558073, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999906, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 35.79210175411999, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 35.79210175411999, "required_final_county_share_points": 35.79210175411999, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.213613509684069, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.999999999999993, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -30.792783893658306, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "WELL BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.029629587976839223, "criticality_score": 0.0009622250485426671, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 78.19893183913739, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 78.19893183913739, "feasible": true, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 142.89245206089566, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 176.7089014234573, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } } } }, { "cid": "26121", "county": "26121", "fips": null, "reporting": 0.0, "current_votes": 0, "current_candidate_votes": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 0, "Haley Stevens": 0, "Mallory McMorrow": 0 }, "current_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": null, "Haley Stevens": null, "Mallory McMorrow": null }, "estimated_remaining_votes": 24944.417489173677, "estimated_final_votes": 24944.417489173677, "turnout_disagreement_votes": 0.0, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 51.520003701578986, "Haley Stevens": 44.646485246666586, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.8335110517544244 }, "remaining_sources": [ { "model": "market", "remaining_votes": 24944.417489173677, "weight": 0.1780093144963334 } ], "share_sources": [ { "model": "v0", "weight": 0.03630604611298715, "source": "statewide raw" }, { "model": "v3", "weight": 0.06301781787712588, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "market", "weight": 0.18729675699179427, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "histgeo", "weight": 0.02760802595386354, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "latent", "weight": 0.03563066882913146, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "batchbias", "weight": 0.020512372723621893, "source": "statewide fallback" } ], "candidate_benchmarks": { "Abdul El-Sayed": { "opponent": "Haley Stevens", "expected_remaining_share_points": 51.520003701578986, "expected_final_county_share_points": 51.520003701578986, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 50.28989257017238, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 50.28989257017238, "required_final_county_share_points": 50.28989257017238, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 50.28989257017238, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": -41.03700665997362, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": false }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 50.28989257017238, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 50.28989257017238, "required_final_county_share_points": 50.28989257017238, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 50.28989257017238, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 50.944425492966886, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 50.944425492966886, "required_final_county_share_points": 50.944425492966886, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.024044322225107804, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999973, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 51.59796256226642, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 51.59796256226642, "required_final_county_share_points": 51.59796256226642, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.003259695682198218, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.9999999999999996, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": 1.230111131406609, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "ABOVE", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.02031863500382924, "criticality_score": 0.01651772306181415, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -57.45557909315096, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 36.88355090159362, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 36.88355090159362, "feasible": true, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 86.1962858005432, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 86.1962858005432, "feasible": true, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false } } }, "Haley Stevens": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 44.646485246666586, "expected_final_county_share_points": 44.64648524666659, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 45.876596378073195, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 45.876596378073195, "required_final_county_share_points": 45.876596378073195, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 45.876596378073195, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 137.20349560821919, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 45.876596378073195, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 45.876596378073195, "required_final_county_share_points": 45.876596378073195, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 45.876596378073195, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 46.53212092613422, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 46.53212092613422, "required_final_county_share_points": 46.53212092613422, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.07865391656842785, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.999999999999999, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 47.18863282712712, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 47.18863282712712, "required_final_county_share_points": 47.18863282712712, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.10597932088248406, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -1.230111131406609, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.02031863500382924, "criticality_score": 0.01651772306181415, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 153.62206804139652, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 247.96119803614107, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 297.27393293509067, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Mallory McMorrow": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 3.8335110517544244, "expected_final_county_share_points": 3.833511051754424, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 34.54719716022258, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 34.54719716022258, "required_final_county_share_points": 34.54719716022258, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 34.54719716022258, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 2232.334628077543, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 34.54719716022258, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 34.54719716022258, "required_final_county_share_points": 34.54719716022258, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 34.54719716022258, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 35.24050484242717, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 35.24050484242717, "required_final_county_share_points": 35.240504842427164, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.159018308558073, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999906, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 35.93423972785248, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 35.93423972785248, "required_final_county_share_points": 35.93423972785248, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.213613509684069, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.999999999999993, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -30.713686108468156, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "WELL BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.02031863500382924, "criticality_score": 0.0006615498684225705, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 112.80909384648437, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 207.1482238412289, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 256.4609587401785, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } } } }, { "cid": "fips:26121", "county": "Muskegon", "fips": "26121", "reporting": 0.0, "current_votes": 0, "current_candidate_votes": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 0, "Haley Stevens": 0, "Mallory McMorrow": 0 }, "current_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": null, "Haley Stevens": null, "Mallory McMorrow": null }, "estimated_remaining_votes": 24944.417489173677, "estimated_final_votes": 24944.417489173677, "turnout_disagreement_votes": 0.0, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 49.30414521844237, "Haley Stevens": 46.83807110573469, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.8577836758229345 }, "remaining_sources": [ { "model": "v3", "remaining_votes": 24944.417489173677, "weight": 0.1342208488636769 }, { "model": "histgeo", "remaining_votes": 24944.417489173677, "weight": 0.05994207394479305 }, { "model": "latent", "remaining_votes": 24944.417489173677, "weight": 0.07672787409296966 }, { "model": "batchbias", "remaining_votes": 24944.417489173677, "weight": 0.045123489075924846 } ], "share_sources": [ { "model": "v0", "weight": 0.03630604611298715, "source": "statewide raw" }, { "model": "v3", "weight": 0.15004242351696637, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "market", "weight": 0.0786646379365536, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "histgeo", "weight": 0.06573339512824654, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "latent", "weight": 0.08483492578364633, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "batchbias", "weight": 0.04883898267529022, "source": "county remaining" } ], "candidate_benchmarks": { "Abdul El-Sayed": { "opponent": "Haley Stevens", "expected_remaining_share_points": 49.30414521844237, "expected_final_county_share_points": 49.304145218442365, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.07029682055077, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.07029682055077, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.07029682055077, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 48.07029682055077, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": -43.252865143110256, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": false }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.07029682055077, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.07029682055077, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.07029682055077, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 48.07029682055077, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.72645653346215, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.72645653346215, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.72645653346215, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.024044322225107804, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999973, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 49.38243891942384, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 49.38243891942384, "required_final_county_share_points": 49.38243891942384, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.003259695682198218, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.9999999999999996, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": 1.2338483978915988, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "ABOVE", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.02031863500382924, "criticality_score": 0.016467691686069163, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -59.67143757628757, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 34.66769241845701, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 34.66769241845701, "feasible": true, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 83.98042731740657, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 83.98042731740657, "feasible": true, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false } } }, "Haley Stevens": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 46.83807110573469, "expected_final_county_share_points": 46.83807110573469, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.07191950362628, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.07191950362628, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.07191950362628, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 48.07191950362628, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 139.3950814672873, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.07191950362628, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.07191950362628, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.07191950362628, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 48.07191950362628, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.728250105311396, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.728250105311396, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.728250105311396, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.07865391656842785, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.999999999999999, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 49.38474513927121, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 49.38474513927121, "required_final_county_share_points": 49.38474513927121, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.10597932088248406, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -1.2338483978915917, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.02031863500382924, "criticality_score": 0.01646769168606926, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 155.81365390046463, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 250.15278389520918, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 299.4655187941588, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Mallory McMorrow": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 3.8577836758229345, "expected_final_county_share_points": 3.8577836758229345, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 33.80235596161166, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 33.80235596161166, "required_final_county_share_points": 33.80235596161166, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 33.80235596161166, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 2232.358900701611, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 33.80235596161166, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 33.80235596161166, "required_final_county_share_points": 33.80235596161166, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 33.80235596161166, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 34.459156584430986, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 34.459156584430986, "required_final_county_share_points": 34.459156584430986, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.159018308558073, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999906, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 35.11554033322278, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 35.11554033322278, "required_final_county_share_points": 35.11554033322278, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.213613509684069, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.999999999999993, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -29.944572285788727, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "WELL BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.02031863500382924, "criticality_score": 0.0006785415002728952, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 112.83336647055287, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 207.17249646529743, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 256.48523136424706, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } } } }, { "cid": "26145", "county": "26145", "fips": null, "reporting": 0.0, "current_votes": 0, "current_candidate_votes": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 0, "Haley Stevens": 0, "Mallory McMorrow": 0 }, "current_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": null, "Haley Stevens": null, "Mallory McMorrow": null }, "estimated_remaining_votes": 24686.364928707186, "estimated_final_votes": 24686.364928707186, "turnout_disagreement_votes": 0.0, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 47.3164798825988, "Haley Stevens": 48.541891474829086, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.141628642572111 }, "remaining_sources": [ { "model": "market", "remaining_votes": 24686.364928707186, "weight": 0.1780093144963334 } ], "share_sources": [ { "model": "v0", "weight": 0.03630604611298715, "source": "statewide raw" }, { "model": "v3", "weight": 0.06301781787712588, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "market", "weight": 0.18729675699179427, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "histgeo", "weight": 0.02760802595386354, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "latent", "weight": 0.03563066882913146, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "batchbias", "weight": 0.020512372723621893, "source": "statewide fallback" } ], "candidate_benchmarks": { "Abdul El-Sayed": { "opponent": "Haley Stevens", "expected_remaining_share_points": 47.3164798825988, "expected_final_county_share_points": 47.3164798825988, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 46.08687925613225, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 46.08687925613225, "required_final_county_share_points": 46.08687925613225, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 46.08687925613225, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": -46.20805135867433, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": false }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 46.08687925613225, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 46.08687925613225, "required_final_county_share_points": 46.08687925613225, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 46.08687925613225, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 46.740477928228145, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 46.740477928228145, "required_final_county_share_points": 46.740477928228145, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.024044322225107804, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999973, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 47.39458595471629, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 47.39458595471629, "required_final_county_share_points": 47.39458595471629, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.003259695682198218, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.9999999999999996, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": 1.2296006264665493, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "ABOVE", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.020108436638195008, "criticality_score": 0.016353632395243456, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -62.79825111194597, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 32.527028691311564, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 32.527028691311564, "feasible": true, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 82.35524156934105, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 82.35524156934105, "feasible": true, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false } } }, "Haley Stevens": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 48.541891474829086, "expected_final_county_share_points": 48.54189147482909, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 49.77149210129564, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 49.77149210129564, "required_final_county_share_points": 49.77149210129564, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 49.77149210129564, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 142.0664227161022, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 49.77149210129564, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 49.77149210129564, "required_final_county_share_points": 49.77149210129564, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 49.77149210129564, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 50.424575539235505, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 50.424575539235505, "required_final_county_share_points": 50.424575539235505, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.07865391656842785, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.999999999999999, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 51.077137871230214, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 51.077137871230214, "required_final_county_share_points": 51.077137871230214, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.10597932088248406, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -1.2296006264665564, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.020108436638195008, "criticality_score": 0.01635363239524336, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 158.65662246937387, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 253.98190227263137, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 303.81011515066086, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Mallory McMorrow": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 4.141628642572111, "expected_final_county_share_points": 4.141628642572111, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 34.033815887345995, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 34.033815887345995, "required_final_county_share_points": 34.033815887345995, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 34.033815887345995, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 2255.9378083846295, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 34.033815887345995, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 34.033815887345995, "required_final_county_share_points": 34.033815887345995, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 34.033815887345995, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 34.64787734773098, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 34.64787734773098, "required_final_county_share_points": 34.64787734773098, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.159018308558073, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999906, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 35.25988086202239, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 35.25988086202239, "required_final_county_share_points": 35.25988086202239, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.213613509684069, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.999999999999993, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -29.892187244773883, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "WELL BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.020108436638195008, "criticality_score": 0.0006726987380861737, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 114.25635963711689, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 209.58163944037437, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 259.4098523184039, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } } } }, { "cid": "fips:26145", "county": "Saginaw", "fips": "26145", "reporting": 16.6, "current_votes": 4432, "current_candidate_votes": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 1944, "Haley Stevens": 2277, "Mallory McMorrow": 211 }, "current_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 43.86281588447653, "Haley Stevens": 51.37635379061371, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.760830324909747 }, "estimated_remaining_votes": 24686.364928707186, "estimated_final_votes": 29118.364928707186, "turnout_disagreement_votes": 0.0, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 46.635453647741876, "Haley Stevens": 49.07054608614816, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.294000266109956 }, "remaining_sources": [ { "model": "v3", "remaining_votes": 24686.364928707186, "weight": 0.1342208488636769 }, { "model": "histgeo", "remaining_votes": 24686.364928707186, "weight": 0.05994207394479305 }, { "model": "latent", "remaining_votes": 24686.364928707186, "weight": 0.07672787409296966 }, { "model": "batchbias", "remaining_votes": 24686.364928707186, "weight": 0.045123489075924846 } ], "share_sources": [ { "model": "v0", "weight": 0.03630604611298715, "source": "statewide raw" }, { "model": "v1", "weight": 0.14599140026529184, "source": "county live" }, { "model": "v3", "weight": 0.15004242351696637, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "market", "weight": 0.0786646379365536, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "histgeo", "weight": 0.06573339512824654, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "latent", "weight": 0.08483492578364633, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "batchbias", "weight": 0.04883898267529022, "source": "county remaining" } ], "candidate_benchmarks": { "Abdul El-Sayed": { "opponent": "Haley Stevens", "expected_remaining_share_points": 46.635453647741876, "expected_final_county_share_points": 46.21344057809053, "current_county_share_points": 43.86281588447653, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 45.408800211700914, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 45.408800211700914, "required_final_county_share_points": 45.17349158242059, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 45.408800211700914, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": -46.88907759353095, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": false }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 45.408800211700914, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 45.408800211700914, "required_final_county_share_points": 45.17349158242059, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 45.408800211700914, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 46.06073309027297, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 46.06073309027297, "required_final_county_share_points": 45.72619613808009, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.024044322225107804, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999973, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 46.71339942917931, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 46.71339942917931, "required_final_county_share_points": 46.279522516754625, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.003259695682198218, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.9999999999999996, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": 1.2266534360409622, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "ABOVE", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.020108436638195008, "criticality_score": 0.016392924070791515, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -63.479277346802895, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 31.84600245645464, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 31.84600245645464, "feasible": true, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 81.67421533448413, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 81.67421533448413, "feasible": true, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false } } }, "Haley Stevens": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 49.07054608614816, "expected_final_county_share_points": 49.42150465718099, "current_county_share_points": 51.37635379061371, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 50.29719952218914, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 50.29719952218914, "required_final_county_share_points": 50.46145365285094, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 50.29719952218914, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 142.595077327421, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 50.29719952218914, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 50.29719952218914, "required_final_county_share_points": 50.46145365285094, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 50.29719952218914, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 50.948393721474886, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 50.948393721474886, "required_final_county_share_points": 51.013531960901005, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.07865391656842785, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.999999999999999, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 51.59884403751327, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 51.59884403751327, "required_final_county_share_points": 51.56497960945651, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.10597932088248406, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -1.2266534360409764, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.020108436638195008, "criticality_score": 0.016392924070791324, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 159.18527708069294, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 254.51055688395044, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 304.33876976197996, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Mallory McMorrow": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 4.294000266109956, "expected_final_county_share_points": 4.3650547647284865, "current_county_share_points": 4.760830324909747, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 34.25681460170472, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 34.25681460170472, "required_final_county_share_points": 29.767338539610478, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 34.25681460170472, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 2256.090180008168, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 34.25681460170472, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 34.25681460170472, "required_final_county_share_points": 29.767338539610478, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 34.25681460170472, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 34.854017700893344, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 34.854017700893344, "required_final_county_share_points": 30.273643535760552, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.159018308558073, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999906, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 35.44850819991381, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 35.44850819991381, "required_final_county_share_points": 30.777648806708978, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.213613509684069, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.999999999999993, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -29.962814335594764, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "WELL BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.020108436638195008, "criticality_score": 0.0006711130807998531, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 114.40873126065473, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 209.73401106391222, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 259.56222394194174, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } } } }, { "cid": "fips:26017", "county": "Bay", "fips": "26017", "reporting": 5.77, "current_votes": 926, "current_candidate_votes": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 448, "Haley Stevens": 432, "Mallory McMorrow": 46 }, "current_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 48.38012958963283, "Haley Stevens": 46.652267818574515, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.967602591792657 }, "estimated_remaining_votes": 15508.356874900292, "estimated_final_votes": 16434.35687490029, "turnout_disagreement_votes": 0.0, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 48.94823120464311, "Haley Stevens": 46.78114167917028, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.2706271161866125 }, "remaining_sources": [ { "model": "v3", "remaining_votes": 15508.356874900292, "weight": 0.1342208488636769 }, { "model": "histgeo", "remaining_votes": 15508.356874900292, "weight": 0.05994207394479305 }, { "model": "latent", "remaining_votes": 15508.356874900292, "weight": 0.07672787409296966 }, { "model": "batchbias", "remaining_votes": 15508.356874900292, "weight": 0.045123489075924846 } ], "share_sources": [ { "model": "v0", "weight": 0.03630604611298715, "source": "statewide raw" }, { "model": "v1", "weight": 0.14599140026529184, "source": "county live" }, { "model": "v3", "weight": 0.15004242351696637, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "market", "weight": 0.0786646379365536, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "histgeo", "weight": 0.06573339512824654, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "latent", "weight": 0.08483492578364633, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "batchbias", "weight": 0.04883898267529022, "source": "county remaining" } ], "candidate_benchmarks": { "Abdul El-Sayed": { "opponent": "Haley Stevens", "expected_remaining_share_points": 48.94823120464311, "expected_final_county_share_points": 48.916221306141814, "current_county_share_points": 48.38012958963283, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 47.7195972929087, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 47.7195972929087, "required_final_county_share_points": 47.756815232827044, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 47.7195972929087, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": -99.9250973260551, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": false }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 47.7195972929087, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 47.7195972929087, "required_final_county_share_points": 47.756815232827044, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 47.7195972929087, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.3729602760429, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.3729602760429, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.37336423370518, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.024044322225107804, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999973, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 49.026200436303476, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 49.026200436303476, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.98979733221056, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.003259695682198218, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.9999999999999996, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": 1.2286339117344056, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "ABOVE", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.01263243140422051, "criticality_score": 0.010281688697968536, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -126.33355108122093, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 25.406227873889396, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 25.406227873889396, "feasible": true, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 104.72329910038265, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Haley Stevens": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 46.78114167917028, "expected_final_county_share_points": 46.773880233175156, "current_county_share_points": 46.652267818574515, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.00977559090469, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.00977559090469, "required_final_county_share_points": 47.93328630648994, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 48.00977559090469, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 195.6544702098685, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.00977559090469, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.00977559090469, "required_final_county_share_points": 47.93328630648994, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 48.00977559090469, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.66325495001475, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.66325495001475, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.54994512609595, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.07865391656842785, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.999999999999999, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 49.31684422207041, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 49.31684422207041, "required_final_county_share_points": 49.16670766556143, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.10597932088248406, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -1.2286339117344056, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.01263243140422051, "criticality_score": 0.010281688697968536, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 222.06292396503432, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 373.8027029201446, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 453.1197741466379, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Mallory McMorrow": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 4.2706271161866125, "expected_final_county_share_points": 4.309898460683025, "current_county_share_points": 4.967602591792657, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 35.159803189352836, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 35.159803189352836, "required_final_county_share_points": 33.45861232644538, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 35.159803189352836, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 3588.703374349994, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 35.159803189352836, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 35.159803189352836, "required_final_county_share_points": 33.45861232644538, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 35.159803189352836, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 35.79556220568631, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 35.79556220568631, "required_final_county_share_points": 34.058549262632596, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.159018308558073, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999906, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 36.42923939774374, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 36.42923939774374, "required_final_county_share_points": 34.65652167571317, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.213613509684069, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.999999999999993, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -30.889176073166222, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "WELL BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.01263243140422051, "criticality_score": 0.00040895980437608524, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 179.55240940205064, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 331.29218835716097, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 410.60925958365425, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } } } }, { "cid": "26017", "county": "26017", "fips": null, "reporting": 0.0, "current_votes": 0, "current_candidate_votes": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 0, "Haley Stevens": 0, "Mallory McMorrow": 0 }, "current_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": null, "Haley Stevens": null, "Mallory McMorrow": null }, "estimated_remaining_votes": 15508.356874900292, "estimated_final_votes": 15508.356874900292, "turnout_disagreement_votes": 0.0, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 48.09081675932247, "Haley Stevens": 47.77542810416066, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.133755136516871 }, "remaining_sources": [ { "model": "market", "remaining_votes": 15508.356874900292, "weight": 0.1780093144963334 } ], "share_sources": [ { "model": "v0", "weight": 0.03630604611298715, "source": "statewide raw" }, { "model": "v3", "weight": 0.06301781787712588, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "market", "weight": 0.18729675699179427, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "histgeo", "weight": 0.02760802595386354, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "latent", "weight": 0.03563066882913146, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "batchbias", "weight": 0.020512372723621893, "source": "statewide fallback" } ], "candidate_benchmarks": { "Abdul El-Sayed": { "opponent": "Haley Stevens", "expected_remaining_share_points": 48.09081675932247, "expected_final_county_share_points": 48.090816759322465, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 46.86042001365787, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 46.86042001365787, "required_final_county_share_points": 46.86042001365787, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 46.86042001365787, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": -100.78251177137562, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": false }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 46.86042001365787, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 46.86042001365787, "required_final_county_share_points": 46.86042001365787, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 46.86042001365787, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 47.51456824629479, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 47.51456824629479, "required_final_county_share_points": 47.51456824629479, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.024044322225107804, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999973, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.168939121809295, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.168939121809295, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.168939121809295, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.003259695682198218, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.9999999999999996, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": 1.2303967456645992, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "ABOVE", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.01263243140422051, "criticality_score": 0.01026695775060515, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -127.19096552654156, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 24.54881342856876, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 24.54881342856876, "feasible": true, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 103.86588465506202, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Haley Stevens": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 47.77542810416066, "expected_final_county_share_points": 47.77542810416066, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 49.005824849825245, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 49.005824849825245, "required_final_county_share_points": 49.005824849825245, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 49.005824849825245, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 196.64875663485876, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 49.005824849825245, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 49.005824849825245, "required_final_county_share_points": 49.005824849825245, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 49.005824849825245, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 49.6597440690023, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 49.6597440690023, "required_final_county_share_points": 49.6597440690023, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.07865391656842785, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.999999999999999, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 50.313427901612286, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 50.313427901612286, "required_final_county_share_points": 50.313427901612286, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.10597932088248406, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -1.230396745664585, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.01263243140422051, "criticality_score": 0.010266957750605269, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 223.0572103900247, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 374.796989345135, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 454.1140605716283, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Mallory McMorrow": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 4.133755136516871, "expected_final_county_share_points": 4.133755136516871, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 34.328019054981205, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 34.328019054981205, "required_final_county_share_points": 34.328019054981205, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 34.328019054981205, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 3588.566502370324, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 34.328019054981205, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 34.328019054981205, "required_final_county_share_points": 34.328019054981205, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 34.328019054981205, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 34.9549754989393, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 34.9549754989393, "required_final_county_share_points": 34.95497549893929, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.159018308558073, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999906, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 35.58010168604368, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 35.58010168604368, "required_final_county_share_points": 35.58010168604368, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.213613509684069, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.999999999999993, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -30.194263918464333, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "WELL BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.01263243140422051, "criticality_score": 0.00041837189468611465, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 179.4155374223809, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 331.1553163774912, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 410.4723876039845, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } } } }, { "cid": "26075", "county": "26075", "fips": null, "reporting": 0.0, "current_votes": 0, "current_candidate_votes": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 0, "Haley Stevens": 0, "Mallory McMorrow": 0 }, "current_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": null, "Haley Stevens": null, "Mallory McMorrow": null }, "estimated_remaining_votes": 15316.60702633344, "estimated_final_votes": 15316.60702633344, "turnout_disagreement_votes": 0.0, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 50.606605283895725, "Haley Stevens": 45.36304140959665, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.030353306507629 }, "remaining_sources": [ { "model": "market", "remaining_votes": 15316.60702633344, "weight": 0.1780093144963334 } ], "share_sources": [ { "model": "v0", "weight": 0.03630604611298715, "source": "statewide raw" }, { "model": "v3", "weight": 0.06301781787712588, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "market", "weight": 0.18729675699179427, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "histgeo", "weight": 0.02760802595386354, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "latent", "weight": 0.03563066882913146, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "batchbias", "weight": 0.020512372723621893, "source": "statewide fallback" } ], "candidate_benchmarks": { "Abdul El-Sayed": { "opponent": "Haley Stevens", "expected_remaining_share_points": 50.606605283895725, "expected_final_county_share_points": 50.606605283895725, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 49.376924379193724, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 49.376924379193724, "required_final_county_share_points": 49.376924379193724, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 49.376924379193724, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": -100.13048054973008, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": false }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 49.376924379193724, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 49.376924379193724, "required_final_county_share_points": 49.376924379193724, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 49.376924379193724, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 50.03109585494552, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 50.03109585494552, "required_final_county_share_points": 50.03109585494552, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.024044322225107804, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999973, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 50.68457275969681, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 50.68457275969681, "required_final_county_share_points": 50.68457275969681, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.003259695682198218, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.9999999999999996, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": 1.2296809047020005, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "ABOVE", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.01247624033715068, "criticality_score": 0.010145916952474885, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -126.86954388440233, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 26.76987769953472, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 26.76987769953472, "feasible": true, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 107.07992578900406, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Haley Stevens": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 45.36304140959665, "expected_final_county_share_points": 45.36304140959665, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 46.592722314298655, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 46.592722314298655, "required_final_county_share_points": 46.592722314298655, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 46.592722314298655, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 196.10012724322246, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 46.592722314298655, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 46.592722314298655, "required_final_county_share_points": 46.592722314298655, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 46.592722314298655, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 47.24758297092966, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 47.24758297092966, "required_final_county_share_points": 47.24758297092966, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.07865391656842785, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.999999999999999, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 47.90312738170466, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 47.90312738170466, "required_final_county_share_points": 47.90312738170466, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.10597932088248406, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -1.2296809047020076, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.01247624033715068, "criticality_score": 0.010145916952474826, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 222.83919057789473, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 376.47861216183173, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 456.7886602513011, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Mallory McMorrow": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 4.030353306507629, "expected_final_county_share_points": 4.030353306507629, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 34.96345619028115, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 34.96345619028115, "required_final_county_share_points": 34.96345619028115, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 34.96345619028115, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 3633.3369055088992, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 34.96345619028115, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 34.96345619028115, "required_final_county_share_points": 34.96345619028115, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 34.96345619028115, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 35.63504956600276, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 35.63504956600276, "required_final_county_share_points": 35.63504956600276, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.159018308558073, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999906, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 36.305924281425874, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 36.305924281425874, "required_final_county_share_points": 36.305924281425874, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.213613509684069, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.999999999999993, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -30.933102883773522, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "WELL BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.01247624033715068, "criticality_score": 0.00040332973979455847, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 181.5065024748057, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 335.1459240587427, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 415.4559721482121, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } } } }, { "cid": "fips:26075", "county": "Jackson", "fips": "26075", "reporting": 3.46, "current_votes": 581, "current_candidate_votes": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 254, "Haley Stevens": 302, "Mallory McMorrow": 25 }, "current_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 43.71772805507745, "Haley Stevens": 51.97934595524957, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.3029259896729775 }, "estimated_remaining_votes": 15316.60702633344, "estimated_final_votes": 15897.60702633344, "turnout_disagreement_votes": 0.0, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 47.36537022909766, "Haley Stevens": 48.62499020594374, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.009639564958597 }, "remaining_sources": [ { "model": "v3", "remaining_votes": 15316.60702633344, "weight": 0.1342208488636769 }, { "model": "histgeo", "remaining_votes": 15316.60702633344, "weight": 0.05994207394479305 }, { "model": "latent", "remaining_votes": 15316.60702633344, "weight": 0.07672787409296966 }, { "model": "batchbias", "remaining_votes": 15316.60702633344, "weight": 0.045123489075924846 } ], "share_sources": [ { "model": "v0", "weight": 0.03630604611298715, "source": "statewide raw" }, { "model": "v1", "weight": 0.14599140026529184, "source": "county live" }, { "model": "v3", "weight": 0.15004242351696637, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "market", "weight": 0.0786646379365536, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "histgeo", "weight": 0.06573339512824654, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "latent", "weight": 0.08483492578364633, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "batchbias", "weight": 0.04883898267529022, "source": "county remaining" } ], "candidate_benchmarks": { "Abdul El-Sayed": { "opponent": "Haley Stevens", "expected_remaining_share_points": 47.36537022909766, "expected_final_county_share_points": 47.232062109228096, "current_county_share_points": 43.71772805507745, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 46.134098056014075, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 46.134098056014075, "required_final_county_share_points": 46.04578847783551, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 46.134098056014075, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": -103.3717156045284, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": false }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 46.134098056014075, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 46.134098056014075, "required_final_county_share_points": 46.04578847783551, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 46.134098056014075, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 46.78858257956388, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 46.78858257956388, "required_final_county_share_points": 46.676353960767905, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.024044322225107804, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999973, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 47.44358320345049, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 47.44358320345049, "required_final_county_share_points": 47.30741668243767, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.003259695682198218, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.9999999999999996, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": 1.2312721730835818, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "ABOVE", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.01247624033715068, "criticality_score": 0.010132804598276065, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -130.1107789392004, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 23.528642644736653, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 23.528642644736653, "feasible": true, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 103.838690734206, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Haley Stevens": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 48.62499020594374, "expected_final_county_share_points": 48.74757976845579, "current_county_share_points": 51.97934595524957, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 49.856262379027314, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 49.856262379027314, "required_final_county_share_points": 49.933853399848374, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 49.856262379027314, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 199.36207603956979, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 49.856262379027314, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 49.856262379027314, "required_final_county_share_points": 49.933853399848374, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 49.856262379027314, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 50.51022492881373, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 50.51022492881373, "required_final_county_share_points": 50.56391598526929, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.07865391656842785, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.999999999999999, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 51.163659639601335, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 51.163659639601335, "required_final_county_share_points": 51.19347002229645, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.10597932088248406, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -1.2312721730835747, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.01247624033715068, "criticality_score": 0.010132804598276124, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 226.1011393742418, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 379.74056095817883, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 460.0506090476482, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Mallory McMorrow": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 4.009639564958597, "expected_final_county_share_points": 4.020358122316116, "current_county_share_points": 4.3029259896729775, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 33.592282874341414, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 33.592282874341414, "required_final_county_share_points": 32.52186288460305, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 33.592282874341414, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 3633.3161917673506, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 33.592282874341414, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 33.592282874341414, "required_final_county_share_points": 32.52186288460305, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 33.592282874341414, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 34.21209487299835, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 34.21209487299835, "required_final_county_share_points": 33.11902299794019, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.159018308558073, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999906, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 34.830324568074964, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 34.830324568074964, "required_final_county_share_points": 33.71465863516618, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.213613509684069, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.999999999999993, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -29.582643309382817, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "WELL BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.01247624033715068, "criticality_score": 0.0004217419047605375, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 181.48578873325667, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 335.1252103171937, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 415.4352584066631, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } } } }, { "cid": "fips:26021", "county": "Berrien", "fips": "26021", "reporting": 9.46, "current_votes": 1294, "current_candidate_votes": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 756, "Haley Stevens": 463, "Mallory McMorrow": 75 }, "current_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 58.42349304482226, "Haley Stevens": 35.7805255023184, "Mallory McMorrow": 5.795981452859351 }, "estimated_remaining_votes": 15056.65577827919, "estimated_final_votes": 16350.65577827919, "turnout_disagreement_votes": 0.0, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 53.085371165674864, "Haley Stevens": 42.26469102741573, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.649937806909396 }, "remaining_sources": [ { "model": "v3", "remaining_votes": 15056.65577827919, "weight": 0.1342208488636769 }, { "model": "histgeo", "remaining_votes": 15056.65577827919, "weight": 0.05994207394479305 }, { "model": "latent", "remaining_votes": 15056.65577827919, "weight": 0.07672787409296966 }, { "model": "batchbias", "remaining_votes": 15056.65577827919, "weight": 0.045123489075924846 } ], "share_sources": [ { "model": "v0", "weight": 0.03630604611298715, "source": "statewide raw" }, { "model": "v1", "weight": 0.14599140026529184, "source": "county live" }, { "model": "v3", "weight": 0.15004242351696637, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "market", "weight": 0.0786646379365536, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "histgeo", "weight": 0.06573339512824654, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "latent", "weight": 0.08483492578364633, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "batchbias", "weight": 0.04883898267529022, "source": "county remaining" } ], "candidate_benchmarks": { "Abdul El-Sayed": { "opponent": "Haley Stevens", "expected_remaining_share_points": 53.085371165674864, "expected_final_county_share_points": 53.507833102693496, "current_county_share_points": 58.42349304482226, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 51.87392000209867, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 51.87392000209867, "required_final_county_share_points": 52.39225685856549, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 51.87392000209867, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": -100.25417129361414, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": false }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 51.87392000209867, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 51.87392000209867, "required_final_county_share_points": 52.39225685856549, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 51.87392000209867, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 52.5188500712964, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 52.5188500712964, "required_final_county_share_points": 52.986146803082065, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.024044322225107804, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999973, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 53.162059256950315, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 53.162059256950315, "required_final_county_share_points": 53.57845205573645, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.003259695682198218, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.9999999999999996, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": 1.2114511635761929, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "ABOVE", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.012264495383383103, "criticality_score": 0.010123805029976136, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -127.45488115776845, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 28.837105509624475, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 28.837105509624475, "feasible": true, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 110.53369637058172, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Haley Stevens": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 42.26469102741573, "expected_final_county_share_points": 41.7515305583034, "current_county_share_points": 35.7805255023184, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 43.476142190991936, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 43.476142190991936, "required_final_county_share_points": 42.867106802431415, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 43.476142190991936, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 195.60423348670471, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 43.476142190991936, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 43.476142190991936, "required_final_county_share_points": 42.867106802431415, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 43.476142190991936, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 44.12279363742372, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 44.12279363742372, "required_final_county_share_points": 43.46258189342953, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.07865391656842785, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.999999999999999, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 44.771166911734745, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 44.771166911734745, "required_final_county_share_points": 44.059642545890064, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.10597932088248406, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -1.211451163576207, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.012264495383383103, "criticality_score": 0.010123805029976016, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 222.80494335085905, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 379.09693001825195, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 460.79352087920927, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Mallory McMorrow": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 4.649937806909396, "expected_final_county_share_points": 4.740636339003092, "current_county_share_points": 5.795981452859351, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 38.19482019241035, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 38.19482019241035, "required_final_county_share_points": 35.63075805952192, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 38.19482019241035, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 3696.616006286317, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 38.19482019241035, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 38.19482019241035, "required_final_county_share_points": 35.63075805952192, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 38.19482019241035, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 38.88362237610174, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 38.88362237610174, "required_final_county_share_points": 36.26504805496943, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.159018308558073, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999906, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 39.57010432212596, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 39.57010432212596, "required_final_county_share_points": 36.89720143765031, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.213613509684069, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.999999999999993, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -33.544882385500955, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "WELL BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.012264495383383103, "criticality_score": 0.0003656144994768014, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 185.19019013035273, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 341.48217679774564, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 423.17876765870295, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } } } }, { "cid": "26021", "county": "26021", "fips": null, "reporting": 0.0, "current_votes": 0, "current_candidate_votes": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 0, "Haley Stevens": 0, "Mallory McMorrow": 0 }, "current_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": null, "Haley Stevens": null, "Mallory McMorrow": null }, "estimated_remaining_votes": 15056.655778279188, "estimated_final_votes": 15056.655778279188, "turnout_disagreement_votes": 1.8189894035458565e-12, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 50.64093249871947, "Haley Stevens": 44.4879633172606, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.871104184019935 }, "remaining_sources": [ { "model": "market", "remaining_votes": 15056.65577827919, "weight": 0.1780093144963334 } ], "share_sources": [ { "model": "v0", "weight": 0.03630604611298715, "source": "statewide raw" }, { "model": "v3", "weight": 0.06301781787712588, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "market", "weight": 0.18729675699179427, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "histgeo", "weight": 0.02760802595386354, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "latent", "weight": 0.03563066882913146, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "batchbias", "weight": 0.020512372723621893, "source": "statewide fallback" } ], "candidate_benchmarks": { "Abdul El-Sayed": { "opponent": "Haley Stevens", "expected_remaining_share_points": 50.64093249871947, "expected_final_county_share_points": 50.64093249871947, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 49.4231749376425, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 49.4231749376425, "required_final_county_share_points": 49.4231749376425, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 49.4231749376425, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": -102.69860996056961, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": false }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 49.4231749376425, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 49.4231749376425, "required_final_county_share_points": 49.4231749376425, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 49.4231749376425, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 50.071081648442714, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 50.071081648442714, "required_final_county_share_points": 50.071081648442714, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.024044322225107804, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999973, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 50.71812278550689, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 50.71812278550689, "required_final_county_share_points": 50.71812278550689, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.003259695682198218, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.9999999999999996, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": 1.2177575610769722, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "ABOVE", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.012264495383383103, "criticality_score": 0.010071376910636063, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -129.89931982472385, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 26.392666842669083, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 26.392666842669083, "feasible": true, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 108.08925770362633, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Haley Stevens": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 44.4879633172606, "expected_final_county_share_points": 44.48796331726059, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 45.705720878337566, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 45.705720878337566, "required_final_county_share_points": 45.705720878337566, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 45.705720878337566, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 197.82750577654969, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 45.705720878337566, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 45.705720878337566, "required_final_county_share_points": 45.705720878337566, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 45.705720878337566, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 46.35448846239838, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 46.35448846239838, "required_final_county_share_points": 46.35448846239838, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.07865391656842785, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.999999999999999, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 47.00411217818334, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 47.00411217818334, "required_final_county_share_points": 47.00411217818334, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.10597932088248406, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -1.217757561076965, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.012264495383383103, "criticality_score": 0.010071376910636122, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 225.02821564070393, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 381.32020230809684, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 463.01679316905415, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Mallory McMorrow": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 4.871104184019935, "expected_final_county_share_points": 4.871104184019935, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 37.86933215353064, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 37.86933215353064, "required_final_county_share_points": 37.86933215353064, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 37.86933215353064, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 3696.8371726634273, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 37.86933215353064, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 37.86933215353064, "required_final_county_share_points": 37.86933215353064, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 37.86933215353064, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 38.50992868634179, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 38.50992868634179, "required_final_county_share_points": 38.50992868634179, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.159018308558073, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999906, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 39.146969063228, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 39.146969063228, "required_final_county_share_points": 39.14696906322799, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.213613509684069, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.999999999999993, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -32.99822796951071, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "WELL BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.012264495383383103, "criticality_score": 0.0003716713332217445, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 185.41135650746327, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 341.7033431748562, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 423.3999340358135, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } } } }, { "cid": "26139", "county": "26139", "fips": null, "reporting": 0.0, "current_votes": 0, "current_candidate_votes": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 0, "Haley Stevens": 0, "Mallory McMorrow": 0 }, "current_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": null, "Haley Stevens": null, "Mallory McMorrow": null }, "estimated_remaining_votes": 14785.060276468925, "estimated_final_votes": 14785.060276468925, "turnout_disagreement_votes": 0.0, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 51.474063544729454, "Haley Stevens": 44.494875217609255, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.031061237661287 }, "remaining_sources": [ { "model": "market", "remaining_votes": 14785.060276468925, "weight": 0.1780093144963334 } ], "share_sources": [ { "model": "v0", "weight": 0.03630604611298715, "source": "statewide raw" }, { "model": "v3", "weight": 0.06301781787712588, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "market", "weight": 0.18729675699179427, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "histgeo", "weight": 0.02760802595386354, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "latent", "weight": 0.03563066882913146, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "batchbias", "weight": 0.020512372723621893, "source": "statewide fallback" } ], "candidate_benchmarks": { "Abdul El-Sayed": { "opponent": "Haley Stevens", "expected_remaining_share_points": 51.474063544729454, "expected_final_county_share_points": 51.474063544729454, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 50.2466620638926, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 50.2466620638926, "required_final_county_share_points": 50.2466620638926, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 50.2466620638926, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": -104.68226350676511, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": false }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 50.2466620638926, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 50.2466620638926, "required_final_county_share_points": 50.2466620638926, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 50.2466620638926, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 50.89976301044866, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 50.89976301044866, "required_final_county_share_points": 50.89976301044866, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.024044322225107804, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999973, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 51.55184802510339, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 51.55184802510339, "required_final_county_share_points": 51.55184802510339, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.003259695682198218, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.9999999999999996, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": 1.2274014808368534, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "ABOVE", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.012043265528151579, "criticality_score": 0.009812001790922047, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -132.38263927061865, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 26.780367179859766, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 26.780367179859766, "feasible": true, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 109.977690954729, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Haley Stevens": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 44.494875217609255, "expected_final_county_share_points": 44.49487521760926, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 45.72227669844611, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 45.72227669844611, "required_final_county_share_points": 45.72227669844611, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 45.72227669844611, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 200.65120226910383, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 45.72227669844611, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 45.72227669844611, "required_final_county_share_points": 45.72227669844611, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 45.72227669844611, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 46.3763894606778, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 46.3763894606778, "required_final_county_share_points": 46.3763894606778, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.07865391656842785, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.999999999999999, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 47.03150987793309, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 47.03150987793309, "required_final_county_share_points": 47.03150987793309, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.10597932088248406, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -1.2274014808368534, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.012043265528151579, "criticality_score": 0.009812001790922047, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 228.35157803295738, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 387.5145844834358, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 470.7119082583051, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Mallory McMorrow": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 4.031061237661287, "expected_final_county_share_points": 4.031061237661287, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 35.30338873457184, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 35.30338873457184, "required_final_county_share_points": 35.30338873457184, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 35.30338873457184, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 3763.8170342886447, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 35.30338873457184, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 35.30338873457184, "required_final_county_share_points": 35.30338873457184, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 35.30338873457184, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 35.98896992775103, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 35.98896992775103, "required_final_county_share_points": 35.98896992775103, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.159018308558073, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999906, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 36.674101309651924, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 36.674101309651924, "required_final_county_share_points": 36.674101309651924, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.213613509684069, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.999999999999993, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -31.272327496910552, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "WELL BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.012043265528151579, "criticality_score": 0.0003851093440148116, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 187.8877640530094, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 347.0507705034878, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 430.2480942783571, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } } } }, { "cid": "fips:26139", "county": "Ottawa", "fips": "26139", "reporting": 38.53, "current_votes": 9627, "current_candidate_votes": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 5161, "Haley Stevens": 4028, "Mallory McMorrow": 438 }, "current_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 53.609639555417054, "Haley Stevens": 41.840656486963745, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.5497039576191955 }, "estimated_remaining_votes": 14785.060276468925, "estimated_final_votes": 24412.060276468925, "turnout_disagreement_votes": 0.0, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 51.92798716506366, "Haley Stevens": 43.837043408724, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.234969426212333 }, "remaining_sources": [ { "model": "v3", "remaining_votes": 14785.060276468925, "weight": 0.1342208488636769 }, { "model": "histgeo", "remaining_votes": 14785.060276468925, "weight": 0.05994207394479305 }, { "model": "latent", "remaining_votes": 14785.060276468925, "weight": 0.07672787409296966 }, { "model": "batchbias", "remaining_votes": 14785.060276468925, "weight": 0.045123489075924846 } ], "share_sources": [ { "model": "v0", "weight": 0.03630604611298715, "source": "statewide raw" }, { "model": "v1", "weight": 0.14599140026529184, "source": "county live" }, { "model": "v3", "weight": 0.15004242351696637, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "market", "weight": 0.0786646379365536, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "histgeo", "weight": 0.06573339512824654, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "latent", "weight": 0.08483492578364633, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "batchbias", "weight": 0.04883898267529022, "source": "county remaining" } ], "candidate_benchmarks": { "Abdul El-Sayed": { "opponent": "Haley Stevens", "expected_remaining_share_points": 51.92798716506366, "expected_final_county_share_points": 52.591153951422, "current_county_share_points": 53.609639555417054, "recent_batch_votes": 1248, "recent_batch_share_points": 53.766025641025635, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 50.70510086282513, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 50.70510086282513, "required_final_county_share_points": 51.8505180737, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 50.70510086282513, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": -104.22833988643102, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": false }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 50.70510086282513, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 50.70510086282513, "required_final_county_share_points": 51.8505180737, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 50.70510086282513, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 51.35589139750238, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 51.35589139750238, "required_final_county_share_points": 52.244666587737285, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.024044322225107804, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999973, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 52.00546057406791, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 52.00546057406791, "required_final_county_share_points": 52.63807539143891, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.003259695682198218, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.9999999999999996, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": 1.2228863022385354, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": 3.0609247782005085, "status": "ABOVE", "recent_status": "WELL ABOVE", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.012043265528151579, "criticality_score": 0.009848229967173536, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -131.92871565028446, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 27.234290800193975, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 27.234290800193975, "feasible": true, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 110.43161457506321, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Haley Stevens": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 43.837043408724, "expected_final_county_share_points": 43.049759718690204, "current_county_share_points": 41.840656486963745, "recent_batch_votes": 1248, "recent_batch_share_points": 42.78846153846153, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 45.059929710962535, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 45.059929710962535, "required_final_county_share_points": 43.79039559641221, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 45.059929710962535, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 199.99337046021864, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 45.059929710962535, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 45.059929710962535, "required_final_county_share_points": 43.79039559641221, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 45.059929710962535, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 45.711938579264114, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 45.711938579264114, "required_final_county_share_points": 44.18528198901722, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.07865391656842785, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.999999999999999, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 46.36516270962666, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 46.36516270962666, "required_final_county_share_points": 44.58090439991073, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.10597932088248406, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -1.2228863022385354, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -2.2714681725010024, "status": "BELOW", "recent_status": "BELOW", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.012043265528151579, "criticality_score": 0.009848229967173536, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 227.69374622407213, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 386.85675267455053, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 470.0540764494198, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Mallory McMorrow": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 4.234969426212333, "expected_final_county_share_points": 4.359086329887787, "current_county_share_points": 4.5497039576191955, "recent_batch_votes": 1248, "recent_batch_share_points": 3.4455128205128207, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 36.24624986729695, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 36.24624986729695, "required_final_county_share_points": 23.746581915608402, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 36.24624986729695, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 3764.020942477195, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 36.24624986729695, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 36.24624986729695, "required_final_county_share_points": 23.746581915608402, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 36.24624986729695, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 36.93173999641782, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 36.93173999641782, "required_final_county_share_points": 24.161746091151002, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.159018308558073, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999906, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 37.61609863788673, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 37.61609863788673, "required_final_county_share_points": 24.57622498601894, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.213613509684069, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.999999999999993, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -32.01128044108462, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -32.800737046784135, "status": "WELL BELOW", "recent_status": "WELL BELOW", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.012043265528151579, "criticality_score": 0.0003762194252215774, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 188.09167224156045, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 347.25467869203885, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 430.45200246690814, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } } } }, { "cid": "fips:26103", "county": "Marquette", "fips": "26103", "reporting": 0.0, "current_votes": 0, "current_candidate_votes": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 0, "Haley Stevens": 0, "Mallory McMorrow": 0 }, "current_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": null, "Haley Stevens": null, "Mallory McMorrow": null }, "estimated_remaining_votes": 13575.142700457824, "estimated_final_votes": 13575.142700457824, "turnout_disagreement_votes": 0.0, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 49.479015620196144, "Haley Stevens": 46.68774275125065, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.8332416285532016 }, "remaining_sources": [ { "model": "v3", "remaining_votes": 13575.142700457824, "weight": 0.1342208488636769 }, { "model": "histgeo", "remaining_votes": 13575.142700457824, "weight": 0.05994207394479305 }, { "model": "latent", "remaining_votes": 13575.142700457824, "weight": 0.07672787409296966 }, { "model": "batchbias", "remaining_votes": 13575.142700457824, "weight": 0.045123489075924846 } ], "share_sources": [ { "model": "v0", "weight": 0.03630604611298715, "source": "statewide raw" }, { "model": "v3", "weight": 0.15004242351696637, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "market", "weight": 0.0786646379365536, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "histgeo", "weight": 0.06573339512824654, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "latent", "weight": 0.08483492578364633, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "batchbias", "weight": 0.04883898267529022, "source": "county remaining" } ], "candidate_benchmarks": { "Abdul El-Sayed": { "opponent": "Haley Stevens", "expected_remaining_share_points": 49.479015620196144, "expected_final_county_share_points": 49.479015620196144, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.24497318150285, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.24497318150285, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.24497318150285, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 48.24497318150285, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": -120.59512348483716, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": false }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.24497318150285, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.24497318150285, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.24497318150285, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 48.24497318150285, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.90126272144794, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.90126272144794, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.90126272144794, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.024044322225107804, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999973, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 49.55731441533497, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 49.55731441533497, "required_final_county_share_points": 49.55731441533497, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.003259695682198218, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.9999999999999996, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": 1.2340424386932938, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "ABOVE", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.011057719418591907, "criticality_score": 0.008960566567143943, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -150.76436254083634, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 22.584433569791113, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 22.584433569791113, "feasible": true, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 113.19692096639565, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Haley Stevens": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 46.68774275125065, "expected_final_county_share_points": 46.687742751250646, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 47.921785189943954, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 47.921785189943954, "required_final_county_share_points": 47.921785189943954, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 47.921785189943954, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 216.761881856284, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 47.921785189943954, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 47.921785189943954, "required_final_county_share_points": 47.921785189943954, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 47.921785189943954, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.578306193036404, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.578306193036404, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.57830619303641, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.07865391656842785, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.999999999999999, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 49.23505225568606, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 49.23505225568606, "required_final_county_share_points": 49.23505225568606, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.10597932088248406, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -1.2340424386933009, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.011057719418591907, "criticality_score": 0.00896056656714389, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 246.93112091228315, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 420.2799170229105, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 510.8924044195151, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Mallory McMorrow": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 3.8332416285532016, "expected_final_county_share_points": 3.8332416285532016, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 33.77528908679408, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 33.77528908679408, "required_final_county_share_points": 33.77528908679408, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 33.77528908679408, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 4098.719274488188, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 33.77528908679408, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 33.77528908679408, "required_final_county_share_points": 33.77528908679408, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 33.77528908679408, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 34.435790924195956, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 34.435790924195956, "required_final_county_share_points": 34.435790924195956, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.159018308558073, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999906, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 35.09603558266566, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 35.09603558266566, "required_final_county_share_points": 35.09603558266566, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.213613509684069, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.999999999999993, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -29.94204745824088, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "WELL BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.011057719418591907, "criticality_score": 0.0003693040509007849, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 204.0766197895857, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 377.42541590021307, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 468.03790329681766, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } } } }, { "cid": "26103", "county": "26103", "fips": null, "reporting": 0.0, "current_votes": 0, "current_candidate_votes": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 0, "Haley Stevens": 0, "Mallory McMorrow": 0 }, "current_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": null, "Haley Stevens": null, "Mallory McMorrow": null }, "estimated_remaining_votes": 13575.142700457824, "estimated_final_votes": 13575.142700457824, "turnout_disagreement_votes": 0.0, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 48.973903537573875, "Haley Stevens": 46.149745434179586, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.8763510282465425 }, "remaining_sources": [ { "model": "market", "remaining_votes": 13575.142700457824, "weight": 0.1780093144963334 } ], "share_sources": [ { "model": "v0", "weight": 0.03630604611298715, "source": "statewide raw" }, { "model": "v3", "weight": 0.06301781787712588, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "market", "weight": 0.18729675699179427, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "histgeo", "weight": 0.02760802595386354, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "latent", "weight": 0.03563066882913146, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "batchbias", "weight": 0.020512372723621893, "source": "statewide fallback" } ], "candidate_benchmarks": { "Abdul El-Sayed": { "opponent": "Haley Stevens", "expected_remaining_share_points": 48.973903537573875, "expected_final_county_share_points": 48.973903537573875, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 47.75327342108671, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 47.75327342108671, "required_final_county_share_points": 47.75327342108671, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 47.75327342108671, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": -121.10023556745905, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": false }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 47.75327342108671, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 47.75327342108671, "required_final_county_share_points": 47.75327342108671, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 47.75327342108671, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.402435191598066, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.402435191598066, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.402435191598066, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.024044322225107804, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999973, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 49.05134992915548, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 49.05134992915548, "required_final_county_share_points": 49.05134992915548, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.003259695682198218, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.9999999999999996, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": 1.2206301164871647, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "ABOVE", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.011057719418591907, "criticality_score": 0.009059025555108185, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -151.26947462345862, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 22.079321487168844, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 22.079321487168844, "feasible": true, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 112.69180888377338, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Haley Stevens": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 46.149745434179586, "expected_final_county_share_points": 46.149745434179586, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 47.37037555066674, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 47.37037555066674, "required_final_county_share_points": 47.37037555066674, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 47.37037555066674, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 216.22388453921252, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 47.37037555066674, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 47.37037555066674, "required_final_county_share_points": 47.37037555066674, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 47.37037555066674, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.01977805349677, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.01977805349677, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.01977805349677, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.07865391656842785, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.999999999999999, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.6694149671013, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.6694149671013, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.6694149671013, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.10597932088248406, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -1.2206301164871576, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.011057719418591907, "criticality_score": 0.009059025555108239, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 246.39312359521207, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 419.74191970583945, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 510.35440710244404, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Mallory McMorrow": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 4.8763510282465425, "expected_final_county_share_points": 4.8763510282465425, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 37.136501345834354, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 37.136501345834354, "required_final_county_share_points": 37.136501345834354, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 37.136501345834354, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 4099.76238388788, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 37.136501345834354, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 37.136501345834354, "required_final_county_share_points": 37.136501345834354, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 37.136501345834354, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 37.749746513256014, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 37.749746513256014, "required_final_county_share_points": 37.749746513256014, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.159018308558073, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999906, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 38.359105897231565, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 38.359105897231565, "required_final_county_share_points": 38.359105897231565, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.213613509684069, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.999999999999993, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -32.260150317587815, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "WELL BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.011057719418591907, "criticality_score": 0.0003427671387062131, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 205.11972918927904, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 378.4685252999064, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 469.081012696511, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } } } }, { "cid": "26115", "county": "26115", "fips": null, "reporting": 0.0, "current_votes": 0, "current_candidate_votes": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 0, "Haley Stevens": 0, "Mallory McMorrow": 0 }, "current_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": null, "Haley Stevens": null, "Mallory McMorrow": null }, "estimated_remaining_votes": 13427.800539038479, "estimated_final_votes": 13427.800539038479, "turnout_disagreement_votes": 0.0, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 48.024175588881675, "Haley Stevens": 48.025137223368944, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.9506871877493968 }, "remaining_sources": [ { "model": "market", "remaining_votes": 13427.800539038479, "weight": 0.1780093144963334 } ], "share_sources": [ { "model": "v0", "weight": 0.03630604611298715, "source": "statewide raw" }, { "model": "v3", "weight": 0.06301781787712588, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "market", "weight": 0.18729675699179427, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "histgeo", "weight": 0.02760802595386354, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "latent", "weight": 0.03563066882913146, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "batchbias", "weight": 0.020512372723621893, "source": "statewide fallback" } ], "candidate_benchmarks": { "Abdul El-Sayed": { "opponent": "Haley Stevens", "expected_remaining_share_points": 48.024175588881675, "expected_final_county_share_points": 48.02417558888167, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 46.791520325763315, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 46.791520325763315, "required_final_county_share_points": 46.791520325763315, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 46.791520325763315, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": -123.91617318946456, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": false }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 46.791520325763315, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 46.791520325763315, "required_final_county_share_points": 46.791520325763315, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 46.791520325763315, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 47.44684331587058, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 47.44684331587058, "required_final_county_share_points": 47.44684331587058, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.024044322225107804, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999973, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.102448403406065, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.102448403406065, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.102448403406065, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.003259695682198218, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.9999999999999996, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": 1.2326552631183603, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "ABOVE", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.010937700917464176, "criticality_score": 0.008873284562785282, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -154.4164568478887, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 20.83448148060418, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 20.83448148060418, "feasible": true, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 112.44125231966704, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Haley Stevens": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 48.025137223368944, "expected_final_county_share_points": 48.02513722336894, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 49.257792486487304, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 49.257792486487304, "required_final_county_share_points": 49.257792486487304, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 49.257792486487304, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 219.96548600171513, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 49.257792486487304, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 49.257792486487304, "required_final_county_share_points": 49.257792486487304, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 49.257792486487304, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 49.91282706624261, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 49.91282706624261, "required_final_county_share_points": 49.91282706624261, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.07865391656842785, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.999999999999999, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 50.56756692245203, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 50.56756692245203, "required_final_county_share_points": 50.56756692245203, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.10597932088248406, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -1.2326552631183603, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.010937700917464176, "criticality_score": 0.008873284562785282, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 250.46576966013933, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 425.71670798863215, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 517.3234788276951, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Mallory McMorrow": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 3.9506871877493968, "expected_final_county_share_points": 3.9506871877493968, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 33.64631598787565, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 33.64631598787565, "required_final_county_share_points": 33.64631598787565, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 33.64631598787565, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 4143.7695708961355, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 33.64631598787565, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 33.64631598787565, "required_final_county_share_points": 33.64631598787565, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 33.64631598787565, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 34.27901459750404, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 34.27901459750404, "required_final_county_share_points": 34.27901459750403, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.159018308558073, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999906, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 34.91053553134712, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 34.91053553134712, "required_final_county_share_points": 34.91053553134713, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.213613509684069, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.999999999999993, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -29.695628800126258, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "WELL BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.010937700917464176, "criticality_score": 0.00036832696795488203, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 206.39131962451978, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 381.64225795301263, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 473.24902879207553, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } } } }, { "cid": "fips:26115", "county": "Monroe", "fips": "26115", "reporting": 20.1, "current_votes": 3167, "current_candidate_votes": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 1406, "Haley Stevens": 1595, "Mallory McMorrow": 166 }, "current_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 44.39532680770445, "Haley Stevens": 50.36311967161351, "Mallory McMorrow": 5.241553520682034 }, "estimated_remaining_votes": 13427.800539038479, "estimated_final_votes": 16594.80053903848, "turnout_disagreement_votes": 0.0, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 46.876193610444986, "Haley Stevens": 48.59278495244829, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.531021437106708 }, "remaining_sources": [ { "model": "v3", "remaining_votes": 13427.800539038479, "weight": 0.1342208488636769 }, { "model": "histgeo", "remaining_votes": 13427.800539038479, "weight": 0.05994207394479305 }, { "model": "latent", "remaining_votes": 13427.800539038479, "weight": 0.07672787409296966 }, { "model": "batchbias", "remaining_votes": 13427.800539038479, "weight": 0.045123489075924846 } ], "share_sources": [ { "model": "v0", "weight": 0.03630604611298715, "source": "statewide raw" }, { "model": "v1", "weight": 0.14599140026529184, "source": "county live" }, { "model": "v3", "weight": 0.15004242351696637, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "market", "weight": 0.0786646379365536, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "histgeo", "weight": 0.06573339512824654, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "latent", "weight": 0.08483492578364633, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "batchbias", "weight": 0.04883898267529022, "source": "county remaining" } ], "candidate_benchmarks": { "Abdul El-Sayed": { "opponent": "Haley Stevens", "expected_remaining_share_points": 46.876193610444986, "expected_final_county_share_points": 46.402737774335584, "current_county_share_points": 44.39532680770445, "recent_batch_votes": 867, "recent_batch_share_points": 41.9838523644752, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 45.65194690701247, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 45.65194690701247, "required_final_county_share_points": 45.41212987244515, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 45.65194690701247, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": -125.06415516790135, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": false }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 45.65194690701247, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 45.65194690701247, "required_final_county_share_points": 45.41212987244515, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 45.65194690701247, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 46.302659033720836, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 46.302659033720836, "required_final_county_share_points": 45.9386582043295, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.024044322225107804, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999973, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 46.95397062225247, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 46.95397062225247, "required_final_county_share_points": 46.465671594999264, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.003259695682198218, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.9999999999999996, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": 1.224246703432513, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -3.6680945425372755, "status": "ABOVE", "recent_status": "WELL BELOW", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.010937700917464176, "criticality_score": 0.008934229421894554, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -155.5644388263254, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 19.68649950216749, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 19.68649950216749, "feasible": true, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 111.29327034123035, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Haley Stevens": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 48.59278495244829, "expected_final_county_share_points": 48.9306407791819, "current_county_share_points": 50.36311967161351, "recent_batch_votes": 867, "recent_batch_share_points": 53.28719723183391, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 49.817031655880804, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 49.817031655880804, "required_final_county_share_points": 49.92124868107234, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 49.817031655880804, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 220.53313373079462, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 49.817031655880804, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 49.817031655880804, "required_final_county_share_points": 49.92124868107234, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 49.817031655880804, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 50.46713870347407, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 50.46713870347407, "required_final_county_share_points": 50.447287408899754, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.07865391656842785, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.999999999999999, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 51.11663506564437, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 51.11663506564437, "required_final_county_share_points": 50.97283199628648, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.10597932088248406, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -1.224246703432513, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": 3.4701655759531036, "status": "BELOW", "recent_status": "WELL ABOVE", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.010937700917464176, "criticality_score": 0.008934229421894554, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 251.03341738921867, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 426.28435571771155, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 517.8911265567745, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Mallory McMorrow": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 4.531021437106708, "expected_final_county_share_points": 4.666621446482503, "current_county_share_points": 5.241553520682034, "recent_batch_votes": 867, "recent_batch_share_points": 4.728950403690888, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 35.12340384155791, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 35.12340384155791, "required_final_county_share_points": 29.42066461648632, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 35.12340384155791, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 4144.349905145495, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 35.12340384155791, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 35.12340384155791, "required_final_county_share_points": 29.42066461648632, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 35.12340384155791, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 35.71554206664462, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 35.71554206664462, "required_final_county_share_points": 29.899797460493698, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.159018308558073, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999906, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 36.30432711307782, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 36.30432711307782, "required_final_county_share_points": 30.376217056214337, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.213613509684069, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.999999999999993, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -30.5923824044512, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -30.39445343786702, "status": "WELL BELOW", "recent_status": "WELL BELOW", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.010937700917464176, "criticality_score": 0.00035753021039226866, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 206.9716538738771, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 382.2225922023699, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 473.8293630414328, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } } } }, { "cid": "fips:26005", "county": "Allegan", "fips": "26005", "reporting": 0.0, "current_votes": 0, "current_candidate_votes": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 0, "Haley Stevens": 0, "Mallory McMorrow": 0 }, "current_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": null, "Haley Stevens": null, "Mallory McMorrow": null }, "estimated_remaining_votes": 12233.214980259478, "estimated_final_votes": 12233.214980259478, "turnout_disagreement_votes": 0.0, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 49.342013689444705, "Haley Stevens": 46.811999583278116, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.84598672727718 }, "remaining_sources": [ { "model": "v3", "remaining_votes": 12233.214980259478, "weight": 0.1342208488636769 }, { "model": "histgeo", "remaining_votes": 12233.214980259478, "weight": 0.05994207394479305 }, { "model": "latent", "remaining_votes": 12233.214980259478, "weight": 0.07672787409296966 }, { "model": "batchbias", "remaining_votes": 12233.214980259478, "weight": 0.045123489075924846 } ], "share_sources": [ { "model": "v0", "weight": 0.03630604611298715, "source": "statewide raw" }, { "model": "v3", "weight": 0.15004242351696637, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "market", "weight": 0.0786646379365536, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "histgeo", "weight": 0.06573339512824654, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "latent", "weight": 0.08483492578364633, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "batchbias", "weight": 0.04883898267529022, "source": "county remaining" } ], "candidate_benchmarks": { "Abdul El-Sayed": { "opponent": "Haley Stevens", "expected_remaining_share_points": 49.342013689444705, "expected_final_county_share_points": 49.342013689444705, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.108035384213146, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.108035384213146, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.108035384213146, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 48.108035384213146, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": -139.3884804393663, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": false }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.108035384213146, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.108035384213146, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.108035384213146, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 48.108035384213146, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.764269404507615, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.764269404507615, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.764269404507615, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.024044322225107804, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999973, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 49.42031421821407, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 49.42031421821407, "required_final_county_share_points": 49.42031421821407, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.003259695682198218, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.9999999999999996, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": 1.2339783052315596, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "ABOVE", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.009964643600723444, "criticality_score": 0.008075217820667883, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -172.86714700496643, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 19.497219022419582, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 19.497219022419582, "feasible": true, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 120.04948176261476, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Haley Stevens": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 46.811999583278116, "expected_final_county_share_points": 46.81199958327811, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.04597788850967, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.04597788850967, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.04597788850967, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 48.04597788850967, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 235.54249371208914, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.04597788850967, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.04597788850967, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.04597788850967, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 48.04597788850967, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.702394686253356, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.702394686253356, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.702394686253356, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.07865391656842785, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.999999999999999, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 49.35898781351872, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 49.35898781351872, "required_final_county_share_points": 49.35898781351872, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.10597932088248406, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -1.2339783052315525, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.009964643600723444, "criticality_score": 0.00807521782066793, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 269.02116027768926, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 461.38552630507525, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 561.9377890452704, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Mallory McMorrow": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 3.84598672727718, "expected_final_county_share_points": 3.84598672727718, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 33.77173500057215, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 33.77173500057215, "required_final_county_share_points": 33.77173500057215, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 33.77173500057215, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 4547.922284567509, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 33.77173500057215, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 33.77173500057215, "required_final_county_share_points": 33.77173500057215, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 33.77173500057215, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 34.42957081742002, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 34.42957081742002, "required_final_county_share_points": 34.42957081742003, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.159018308558073, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999906, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 35.08705134447809, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 35.08705134447809, "required_final_county_share_points": 35.08705134447809, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.213613509684069, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.999999999999993, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -29.92574827329497, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "WELL BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.009964643600723444, "criticality_score": 0.00033297892870453824, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 226.05514742168833, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 418.4195134490743, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 518.9717761892695, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } } } }, { "cid": "26005", "county": "26005", "fips": null, "reporting": 0.0, "current_votes": 0, "current_candidate_votes": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 0, "Haley Stevens": 0, "Mallory McMorrow": 0 }, "current_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": null, "Haley Stevens": null, "Mallory McMorrow": null }, "estimated_remaining_votes": 12233.214980259478, "estimated_final_votes": 12233.214980259478, "turnout_disagreement_votes": 0.0, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 51.520003701578986, "Haley Stevens": 44.646485246666586, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.8335110517544244 }, "remaining_sources": [ { "model": "market", "remaining_votes": 12233.214980259478, "weight": 0.1780093144963334 } ], "share_sources": [ { "model": "v0", "weight": 0.03630604611298715, "source": "statewide raw" }, { "model": "v3", "weight": 0.06301781787712588, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "market", "weight": 0.18729675699179427, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "histgeo", "weight": 0.02760802595386354, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "latent", "weight": 0.03563066882913146, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "batchbias", "weight": 0.020512372723621893, "source": "statewide fallback" } ], "candidate_benchmarks": { "Abdul El-Sayed": { "opponent": "Haley Stevens", "expected_remaining_share_points": 51.520003701578986, "expected_final_county_share_points": 51.52000370157898, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 50.28989257017238, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 50.28989257017238, "required_final_county_share_points": 50.28989257017238, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 50.28989257017238, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": -137.21049042723163, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": false }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 50.28989257017238, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 50.28989257017238, "required_final_county_share_points": 50.28989257017238, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 50.28989257017238, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 50.944425492966886, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 50.944425492966886, "required_final_county_share_points": 50.944425492966886, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.024044322225107804, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999973, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 51.59796256226642, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 51.59796256226642, "required_final_county_share_points": 51.59796256226642, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.003259695682198218, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.9999999999999996, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": 1.230111131406609, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "ABOVE", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.009964643600723444, "criticality_score": 0.008100604365175575, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -170.68915699283215, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 21.675209034553863, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 21.675209034553863, "feasible": true, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 122.22747177474905, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Haley Stevens": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 44.646485246666586, "expected_final_county_share_points": 44.646485246666586, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 45.876596378073195, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 45.876596378073195, "required_final_county_share_points": 45.876596378073195, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 45.876596378073195, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 233.37697937547722, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 45.876596378073195, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 45.876596378073195, "required_final_county_share_points": 45.876596378073195, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 45.876596378073195, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 46.53212092613422, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 46.53212092613422, "required_final_county_share_points": 46.53212092613422, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.07865391656842785, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.999999999999999, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 47.18863282712712, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 47.18863282712712, "required_final_county_share_points": 47.18863282712712, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.10597932088248406, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -1.230111131406609, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.009964643600723444, "criticality_score": 0.008100604365175575, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 266.85564594107774, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 459.2200119684637, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 559.7722747086589, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Mallory McMorrow": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 3.8335110517544244, "expected_final_county_share_points": 3.833511051754424, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 34.54719716022258, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 34.54719716022258, "required_final_county_share_points": 34.54719716022258, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 34.54719716022258, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 4547.909808891987, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 34.54719716022258, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 34.54719716022258, "required_final_county_share_points": 34.54719716022258, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 34.54719716022258, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 35.24050484242717, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 35.24050484242717, "required_final_county_share_points": 35.24050484242718, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.159018308558073, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999906, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 35.93423972785248, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 35.93423972785248, "required_final_county_share_points": 35.93423972785248, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.213613509684069, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.999999999999993, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -30.713686108468156, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "WELL BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.009964643600723444, "criticality_score": 0.00032443659043503945, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 226.04267174616555, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 418.40703777355156, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 518.9593005137467, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } } } }, { "cid": "fips:26037", "county": "Clinton", "fips": "26037", "reporting": 0.11, "current_votes": 11, "current_candidate_votes": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 8, "Haley Stevens": 3, "Mallory McMorrow": 0 }, "current_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 72.72727272727273, "Haley Stevens": 27.27272727272727, "Mallory McMorrow": 0.0 }, "estimated_remaining_votes": 12041.099798507375, "estimated_final_votes": 12052.099798507375, "turnout_disagreement_votes": 0.0, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 49.84449106487659, "Haley Stevens": 46.39578659448361, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.7597223406398017 }, "remaining_sources": [ { "model": "v3", "remaining_votes": 12041.099798507375, "weight": 0.1342208488636769 }, { "model": "histgeo", "remaining_votes": 12041.099798507375, "weight": 0.05994207394479305 }, { "model": "latent", "remaining_votes": 12041.099798507375, "weight": 0.07672787409296966 }, { "model": "batchbias", "remaining_votes": 12041.099798507375, "weight": 0.045123489075924846 } ], "share_sources": [ { "model": "v0", "weight": 0.03630604611298715, "source": "statewide raw" }, { "model": "v3", "weight": 0.15004242351696637, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "market", "weight": 0.0786646379365536, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "histgeo", "weight": 0.06573339512824654, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "latent", "weight": 0.08483492578364633, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "batchbias", "weight": 0.04883898267529022, "source": "county remaining" } ], "candidate_benchmarks": { "Abdul El-Sayed": { "opponent": "Haley Stevens", "expected_remaining_share_points": 49.84449106487659, "expected_final_county_share_points": 49.86537627181104, "current_county_share_points": 72.72727272727273, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.609835129356796, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.609835129356796, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.6318472117335, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 48.609835129356796, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": -141.897189233674, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": false }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.609835129356796, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.609835129356796, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.6318472117335, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 48.609835129356796, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 49.26650470995037, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 49.26650470995037, "required_final_county_share_points": 49.28791744735755, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.024044322225107804, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999973, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 49.92281421558731, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 49.92281421558731, "required_final_county_share_points": 49.943627936666815, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.003259695682198218, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.9999999999999996, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": 1.2346559355197968, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "ABOVE", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.009808154949168061, "criticality_score": 0.007944039037109375, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -175.91000635193933, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 19.523524100656452, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 19.523524100656452, "feasible": true, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 121.68009347024379, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Haley Stevens": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 46.39578659448361, "expected_final_county_share_points": 46.37833290126367, "current_county_share_points": 27.27272727272727, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 47.630442530003414, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 47.630442530003414, "required_final_county_share_points": 47.6118619613412, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 47.630442530003414, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 238.13746689303423, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 47.630442530003414, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 47.630442530003414, "required_final_county_share_points": 47.6118619613412, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 47.630442530003414, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.287465964091794, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.287465964091794, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.26828572749653, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.07865391656842785, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.999999999999999, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.94483700488815, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.94483700488815, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.925056783097816, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.10597932088248406, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -1.234655935519804, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.009808154949168061, "criticality_score": 0.00794403903710933, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 272.1502840112995, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 467.58381446389524, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 569.7403838334827, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Mallory McMorrow": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 3.7597223406398017, "expected_final_county_share_points": 3.756290826925307, "current_county_share_points": 0.0, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 33.62648500349666, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 33.62648500349666, "required_final_county_share_points": 33.59579397527565, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 33.62648500349666, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 4620.336544091753, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 33.62648500349666, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 33.62648500349666, "required_final_county_share_points": 33.59579397527565, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 33.62648500349666, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 34.295472243771066, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 34.295472243771066, "required_final_county_share_points": 34.26417062820295, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.159018308558073, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999906, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 34.9646436066978, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 34.9646436066978, "required_final_county_share_points": 34.93273123573309, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.213613509684069, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.999999999999993, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -29.86676266285686, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "WELL BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.009808154949168061, "criticality_score": 0.00032839698965317577, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 229.51421975745572, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 424.9477502100515, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 527.1043195796389, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } } } }, { "cid": "26037", "county": "26037", "fips": null, "reporting": 0.0, "current_votes": 0, "current_candidate_votes": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 0, "Haley Stevens": 0, "Mallory McMorrow": 0 }, "current_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": null, "Haley Stevens": null, "Mallory McMorrow": null }, "estimated_remaining_votes": 12041.099798507375, "estimated_final_votes": 12041.099798507375, "turnout_disagreement_votes": 0.0, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 51.874843127463365, "Haley Stevens": 44.16633808795746, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.9588187845791745 }, "remaining_sources": [ { "model": "market", "remaining_votes": 12041.099798507375, "weight": 0.1780093144963334 } ], "share_sources": [ { "model": "v0", "weight": 0.03630604611298715, "source": "statewide raw" }, { "model": "v3", "weight": 0.06301781787712588, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "market", "weight": 0.18729675699179427, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "histgeo", "weight": 0.02760802595386354, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "latent", "weight": 0.03563066882913146, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "batchbias", "weight": 0.020512372723621893, "source": "statewide fallback" } ], "candidate_benchmarks": { "Abdul El-Sayed": { "opponent": "Haley Stevens", "expected_remaining_share_points": 51.874843127463365, "expected_final_county_share_points": 51.874843127463365, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 50.64770404426277, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 50.64770404426277, "required_final_county_share_points": 50.64770404426277, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 50.64770404426277, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": -139.86683717108713, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": false }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 50.64770404426277, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 50.64770404426277, "required_final_county_share_points": 50.64770404426277, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 50.64770404426277, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 51.3007246051035, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 51.3007246051035, "required_final_county_share_points": 51.3007246051035, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.024044322225107804, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999973, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 51.952594946812816, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 51.952594946812816, "required_final_county_share_points": 51.952594946812816, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.003259695682198218, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.9999999999999996, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": 1.2271390832005977, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "ABOVE", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.009808154949168061, "criticality_score": 0.007992700325041105, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -173.87965428935257, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 21.553876163243224, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 21.553876163243224, "feasible": true, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 123.71044553283056, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Haley Stevens": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 44.16633808795746, "expected_final_county_share_points": 44.16633808795746, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 45.39347717115807, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 45.39347717115807, "required_final_county_share_points": 45.39347717115807, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 45.39347717115807, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 235.90801838650793, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 45.39347717115807, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 45.39347717115807, "required_final_county_share_points": 45.39347717115807, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 45.39347717115807, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 46.04764450466132, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 46.04764450466132, "required_final_county_share_points": 46.04764450466132, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.07865391656842785, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.999999999999999, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 46.70295511789028, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 46.70295511789028, "required_final_county_share_points": 46.70295511789028, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.10597932088248406, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -1.2271390832006048, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.009808154949168061, "criticality_score": 0.007992700325041058, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 269.9208355047734, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 465.3543659573691, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 567.5109353269565, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Mallory McMorrow": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 3.9588187845791745, "expected_final_county_share_points": 3.9588187845791745, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 35.177207658742205, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 35.177207658742205, "required_final_county_share_points": 35.177207658742205, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 35.177207658742205, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 4620.535640535693, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 35.177207658742205, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 35.177207658742205, "required_final_county_share_points": 35.177207658742205, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 35.177207658742205, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 35.87182725717031, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 35.87182725717031, "required_final_county_share_points": 35.87182725717031, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.159018308558073, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999906, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 36.56643589803949, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 36.56643589803949, "required_final_county_share_points": 36.56643589803949, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.213613509684069, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.999999999999993, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -31.21838887416303, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "WELL BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.009808154949168061, "criticality_score": 0.0003141787677994328, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 229.7133162013951, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 425.14684665399085, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 527.3034160235783, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } } } }, { "cid": "fips:26025", "county": "Calhoun", "fips": "26025", "reporting": 7.2700000000000005, "current_votes": 918, "current_candidate_votes": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 411, "Haley Stevens": 458, "Mallory McMorrow": 49 }, "current_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 44.771241830065364, "Haley Stevens": 49.89106753812636, "Mallory McMorrow": 5.337690631808279 }, "estimated_remaining_votes": 11811.954356962822, "estimated_final_votes": 12729.954356962822, "turnout_disagreement_votes": 0.0, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 47.5320731168922, "Haley Stevens": 48.03569416485915, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.432232718248659 }, "remaining_sources": [ { "model": "v3", "remaining_votes": 11811.954356962822, "weight": 0.1342208488636769 }, { "model": "histgeo", "remaining_votes": 11811.954356962822, "weight": 0.05994207394479305 }, { "model": "latent", "remaining_votes": 11811.954356962822, "weight": 0.07672787409296966 }, { "model": "batchbias", "remaining_votes": 11811.954356962822, "weight": 0.045123489075924846 } ], "share_sources": [ { "model": "v0", "weight": 0.03630604611298715, "source": "statewide raw" }, { "model": "v1", "weight": 0.14599140026529184, "source": "county live" }, { "model": "v3", "weight": 0.15004242351696637, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "market", "weight": 0.0786646379365536, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "histgeo", "weight": 0.06573339512824654, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "latent", "weight": 0.08483492578364633, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "batchbias", "weight": 0.04883898267529022, "source": "county remaining" } ], "candidate_benchmarks": { "Abdul El-Sayed": { "opponent": "Haley Stevens", "expected_remaining_share_points": 47.5320731168922, "expected_final_county_share_points": 47.332980248980945, "current_county_share_points": 44.771241830065364, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 46.30579741135068, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 46.30579741135068, "required_final_county_share_points": 46.19513542591713, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 46.30579741135068, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": -147.92929070452968, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": false }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 46.30579741135068, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 46.30579741135068, "required_final_county_share_points": 46.19513542591713, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 46.30579741135068, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 46.95768758428099, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 46.95768758428099, "required_final_county_share_points": 46.800015596928404, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.024044322225107804, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999973, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 47.6099520136363, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 47.6099520136363, "required_final_county_share_points": 47.40524303546996, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.003259695682198218, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.9999999999999996, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": 1.2262757055415179, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "ABOVE", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.009621503062365902, "criticality_score": 0.007846117328172208, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -182.6019378357808, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 16.62289600953191, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 16.62289600953191, "feasible": true, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 120.76124684283374, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Haley Stevens": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 48.03569416485915, "expected_final_county_share_points": 48.16949140473125, "current_county_share_points": 49.89106753812636, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 49.26196987040067, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 49.26196987040067, "required_final_county_share_points": 49.307336227795055, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 49.26196987040067, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 243.49705798628105, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 49.26196987040067, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 49.26196987040067, "required_final_county_share_points": 49.307336227795055, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 49.26196987040067, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 49.91347964938004, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 49.91347964938004, "required_final_county_share_points": 49.91186343634785, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.07865391656842785, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.999999999999999, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 50.564602900104774, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 50.564602900104774, "required_final_county_share_points": 50.516031990503826, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.10597932088248406, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -1.2262757055415179, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.009621503062365902, "criticality_score": 0.007846117328172208, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 278.16970511753215, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 477.3945389628448, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 581.5328897961467, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Mallory McMorrow": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 4.432232718248659, "expected_final_county_share_points": 4.49752834628782, "current_county_share_points": 5.337690631808279, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 35.09721729517752, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 35.09721729517752, "required_final_county_share_points": 32.951157324268806, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 35.09721729517752, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 4710.568114915691, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 35.09721729517752, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 35.09721729517752, "required_final_county_share_points": 32.951157324268806, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 35.09721729517752, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 35.70379045516581, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 35.70379045516581, "required_final_county_share_points": 33.513988445184914, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.159018308558073, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999906, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 36.30743029704905, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 36.30743029704905, "required_final_county_share_points": 34.07409777947088, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.213613509684069, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.999999999999993, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -30.664984576928862, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "WELL BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.009621503062365902, "criticality_score": 0.0003137618751520503, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 234.56624367092166, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 433.79107751623434, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 537.9294283495362, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } } } }, { "cid": "26025", "county": "26025", "fips": null, "reporting": 0.0, "current_votes": 0, "current_candidate_votes": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 0, "Haley Stevens": 0, "Mallory McMorrow": 0 }, "current_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": null, "Haley Stevens": null, "Mallory McMorrow": null }, "estimated_remaining_votes": 11811.954356962822, "estimated_final_votes": 11811.954356962822, "turnout_disagreement_votes": 0.0, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 50.29492018742767, "Haley Stevens": 45.67831422390735, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.026765588664979 }, "remaining_sources": [ { "model": "market", "remaining_votes": 11811.954356962822, "weight": 0.1780093144963334 } ], "share_sources": [ { "model": "v0", "weight": 0.03630604611298715, "source": "statewide raw" }, { "model": "v3", "weight": 0.06301781787712588, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "market", "weight": 0.18729675699179427, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "histgeo", "weight": 0.02760802595386354, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "latent", "weight": 0.03563066882913146, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "batchbias", "weight": 0.020512372723621893, "source": "statewide fallback" } ], "candidate_benchmarks": { "Abdul El-Sayed": { "opponent": "Haley Stevens", "expected_remaining_share_points": 50.29492018742767, "expected_final_county_share_points": 50.29492018742767, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 49.064571880940164, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 49.064571880940164, "required_final_county_share_points": 49.06457188094016, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 49.064571880940164, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": -145.16644363399433, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": false }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 49.064571880940164, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 49.064571880940164, "required_final_county_share_points": 49.06457188094016, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 49.064571880940164, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 49.719046956777056, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 49.719046956777056, "required_final_county_share_points": 49.71904695677706, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.024044322225107804, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999973, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 50.37294391319712, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 50.37294391319712, "required_final_county_share_points": 50.37294391319712, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.003259695682198218, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.9999999999999996, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": 1.2303483064875067, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "ABOVE", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.009621503062365902, "criticality_score": 0.007820145735669042, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -179.83909076524534, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 19.385743080067382, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 19.385743080067382, "feasible": true, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 123.52409391336923, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Haley Stevens": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 45.67831422390735, "expected_final_county_share_points": 45.67831422390735, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 46.908662530394864, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 46.908662530394864, "required_final_county_share_points": 46.90866253039486, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 46.908662530394864, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 241.13967804532933, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 46.908662530394864, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 46.908662530394864, "required_final_county_share_points": 46.90866253039486, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 46.908662530394864, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 47.56370999331633, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 47.56370999331633, "required_final_county_share_points": 47.56370999331634, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.07865391656842785, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.999999999999999, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.21932407802915, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.21932407802915, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.21932407802916, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.10597932088248406, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -1.2303483064875138, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.009621503062365902, "criticality_score": 0.007820145735668997, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 275.8123251765804, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 475.03715902189305, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 579.175509855195, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Mallory McMorrow": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 4.026765588664979, "expected_final_county_share_points": 4.026765588664978, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 34.82783918217315, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 34.82783918217315, "required_final_county_share_points": 34.82783918217316, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 34.82783918217315, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 4710.162647786108, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 34.82783918217315, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 34.82783918217315, "required_final_county_share_points": 34.82783918217316, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 34.82783918217315, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 35.494522382720554, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 35.494522382720554, "required_final_county_share_points": 35.494522382720554, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.159018308558073, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999906, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 36.16040573222969, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 36.16040573222969, "required_final_county_share_points": 36.16040573222969, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.213613509684069, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.999999999999993, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -30.80107359350817, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "WELL BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.009621503062365902, "criticality_score": 0.0003123755746096393, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 234.16077654133798, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 433.3856103866507, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 537.5239612199525, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } } } }, { "cid": "fips:26055", "county": "Grand Traverse", "fips": "26055", "reporting": 6.860000000000001, "current_votes": 1147, "current_candidate_votes": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 716, "Haley Stevens": 400, "Mallory McMorrow": 31 }, "current_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 62.42371403661726, "Haley Stevens": 34.873583260680036, "Mallory McMorrow": 2.7027027027027026 }, "estimated_remaining_votes": 11235.868104134455, "estimated_final_votes": 12382.868104134455, "turnout_disagreement_votes": 0.0, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 54.43571239177316, "Haley Stevens": 42.16109731196045, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.4031902962664082 }, "remaining_sources": [ { "model": "v3", "remaining_votes": 11235.868104134455, "weight": 0.1342208488636769 }, { "model": "histgeo", "remaining_votes": 11235.868104134455, "weight": 0.05994207394479305 }, { "model": "latent", "remaining_votes": 11235.868104134455, "weight": 0.07672787409296966 }, { "model": "batchbias", "remaining_votes": 11235.868104134455, "weight": 0.045123489075924846 } ], "share_sources": [ { "model": "v0", "weight": 0.03630604611298715, "source": "statewide raw" }, { "model": "v1", "weight": 0.14599140026529184, "source": "county live" }, { "model": "v3", "weight": 0.15004242351696637, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "market", "weight": 0.0786646379365536, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "histgeo", "weight": 0.06573339512824654, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "latent", "weight": 0.08483492578364633, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "batchbias", "weight": 0.04883898267529022, "source": "county remaining" } ], "candidate_benchmarks": { "Abdul El-Sayed": { "opponent": "Haley Stevens", "expected_remaining_share_points": 54.43571239177316, "expected_final_county_share_points": 55.175624810252124, "current_county_share_points": 62.42371403661726, "recent_batch_votes": 831, "recent_batch_share_points": 57.52105896510229, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 53.212056538779926, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 53.212056538779926, "required_final_county_share_points": 54.065313721297414, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 53.212056538779926, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": -151.0473607994102, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": false }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 53.212056538779926, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 53.212056538779926, "required_final_county_share_points": 54.065313721297414, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 53.212056538779926, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 53.863590480059784, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 53.863590480059784, "required_final_county_share_points": 54.65649739280427, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.024044322225107804, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999973, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 54.51314426580795, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 54.51314426580795, "required_final_county_share_points": 55.24588432657698, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.003259695682198218, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.9999999999999996, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": 1.2236558529932324, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": 4.309002426322365, "status": "ABOVE", "recent_status": "WELL ABOVE", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.00915224831600738, "criticality_score": 0.007479430015898431, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -187.4977464352749, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 21.94175769066065, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 21.94175769066065, "feasible": true, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 131.41949767941256, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Haley Stevens": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 42.16109731196045, "expected_final_county_share_points": 41.48606964094554, "current_county_share_points": 34.873583260680036, "recent_batch_votes": 831, "recent_batch_share_points": 39.95186522262335, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 43.38475316495368, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 43.38475316495368, "required_final_county_share_points": 42.596380729900254, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 43.38475316495368, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 247.6441705031438, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 43.38475316495368, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 43.38475316495368, "required_final_county_share_points": 42.596380729900254, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 43.38475316495368, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 44.038269839106256, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 44.038269839106256, "required_final_county_share_points": 43.18936347774841, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.07865391656842785, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.999999999999999, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 44.69377178815842, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 44.69377178815842, "required_final_county_share_points": 43.78414760850195, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.10597932088248406, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -1.2236558529932324, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -3.432887942330332, "status": "BELOW", "recent_status": "WELL BELOW", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.00915224831600738, "criticality_score": 0.007479430015898431, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 284.09455613900855, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 493.53406026494406, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 603.011800253696, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Mallory McMorrow": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 3.4031902962664082, "expected_final_county_share_points": 3.3383055488023445, "current_county_share_points": 2.7027027027027026, "recent_batch_votes": 831, "recent_batch_share_points": 2.527075812274368, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 33.689853437440846, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 33.689853437440846, "required_final_county_share_points": 30.819576406800614, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 33.689853437440846, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 4950.832416323424, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 33.689853437440846, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 33.689853437440846, "required_final_county_share_points": 30.819576406800614, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 33.689853437440846, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 34.44253091201927, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 34.44253091201927, "required_final_county_share_points": 31.5025348909092, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.159018308558073, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999906, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 35.19903705591981, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 35.19903705591981, "required_final_county_share_points": 32.188967402452775, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.213613509684069, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.999999999999993, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -30.286663141174436, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -31.162777625166477, "status": "WELL BELOW", "recent_status": "WELL BELOW", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.00915224831600738, "criticality_score": 0.0003021874107869276, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 245.3366491233145, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 454.77615324925, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 564.253893238002, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } } } }, { "cid": "26055", "county": "26055", "fips": null, "reporting": 0.0, "current_votes": 0, "current_candidate_votes": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 0, "Haley Stevens": 0, "Mallory McMorrow": 0 }, "current_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": null, "Haley Stevens": null, "Mallory McMorrow": null }, "estimated_remaining_votes": 11235.868104134455, "estimated_final_votes": 11235.868104134455, "turnout_disagreement_votes": 0.0, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 50.27001427473839, "Haley Stevens": 45.81976287256555, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.910222852696068 }, "remaining_sources": [ { "model": "market", "remaining_votes": 11235.868104134455, "weight": 0.1780093144963334 } ], "share_sources": [ { "model": "v0", "weight": 0.03630604611298715, "source": "statewide raw" }, { "model": "v3", "weight": 0.06301781787712588, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "market", "weight": 0.18729675699179427, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "histgeo", "weight": 0.02760802595386354, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "latent", "weight": 0.03563066882913146, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "batchbias", "weight": 0.020512372723621893, "source": "statewide fallback" } ], "candidate_benchmarks": { "Abdul El-Sayed": { "opponent": "Haley Stevens", "expected_remaining_share_points": 50.27001427473839, "expected_final_county_share_points": 50.27001427473838, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 49.03801996232512, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 49.03801996232512, "required_final_county_share_points": 49.03801996232512, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 49.03801996232512, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": -155.21305891644462, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": false }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 49.03801996232512, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 49.03801996232512, "required_final_county_share_points": 49.03801996232512, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 49.03801996232512, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 49.69335651254969, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 49.69335651254969, "required_final_county_share_points": 49.69335651254969, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.024044322225107804, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999973, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 50.34814620456779, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 50.34814620456779, "required_final_county_share_points": 50.34814620456779, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.003259695682198218, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.9999999999999996, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": 1.2319943124132635, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "ABOVE", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.00915224831600738, "criticality_score": 0.007428807279215202, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -191.66344455230967, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 17.77605957362588, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 17.77605957362588, "feasible": true, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 127.25379956237778, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Haley Stevens": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 45.81976287256555, "expected_final_county_share_points": 45.819762872565555, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 47.051757184978804, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 47.051757184978804, "required_final_county_share_points": 47.051757184978804, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 47.051757184978804, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 251.30283606374854, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 47.051757184978804, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 47.051757184978804, "required_final_county_share_points": 47.051757184978804, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 47.051757184978804, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 47.70763477133866, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 47.70763477133866, "required_final_county_share_points": 47.70763477133866, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.07865391656842785, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.999999999999999, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.36404753982466, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.36404753982466, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.36404753982466, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.10597932088248406, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -1.2319943124132564, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.00915224831600738, "criticality_score": 0.0074288072792152455, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 287.7532216996136, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 497.19272582554913, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 606.6704658143011, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Mallory McMorrow": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 3.910222852696068, "expected_final_county_share_points": 3.910222852696068, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 34.37576966977189, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 34.37576966977189, "required_final_county_share_points": 34.37576966977189, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 34.37576966977189, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 4951.339448879853, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 34.37576966977189, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 34.37576966977189, "required_final_county_share_points": 34.37576966977189, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 34.37576966977189, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 35.04626833729776, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 35.04626833729776, "required_final_county_share_points": 35.04626833729776, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.159018308558073, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999906, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 35.71643916962442, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 35.71643916962442, "required_final_county_share_points": 35.71643916962442, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.213613509684069, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.999999999999993, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -30.465546817075822, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "WELL BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.00915224831600738, "criticality_score": 0.00030041306564954155, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 245.84368167974415, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 455.28318580567964, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 564.7609257944316, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } } } }, { "cid": "fips:26147", "county": "St. Clair", "fips": "26147", "reporting": 34.81, "current_votes": 6209, "current_candidate_votes": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 2684, "Haley Stevens": 3260, "Mallory McMorrow": 265 }, "current_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 43.2275728780802, "Haley Stevens": 52.50442905459817, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.2679980673216305 }, "estimated_remaining_votes": 10755.18585599924, "estimated_final_votes": 16964.18585599924, "turnout_disagreement_votes": 0.0, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 45.83281190141864, "Haley Stevens": 50.08974230375978, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.077445794821586 }, "remaining_sources": [ { "model": "v3", "remaining_votes": 10755.18585599924, "weight": 0.1342208488636769 }, { "model": "histgeo", "remaining_votes": 10755.18585599924, "weight": 0.05994207394479305 }, { "model": "latent", "remaining_votes": 10755.18585599924, "weight": 0.07672787409296966 }, { "model": "batchbias", "remaining_votes": 10755.18585599924, "weight": 0.045123489075924846 } ], "share_sources": [ { "model": "v0", "weight": 0.03630604611298715, "source": "statewide raw" }, { "model": "v1", "weight": 0.14599140026529184, "source": "county live" }, { "model": "v3", "weight": 0.15004242351696637, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "market", "weight": 0.0786646379365536, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "histgeo", "weight": 0.06573339512824654, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "latent", "weight": 0.08483492578364633, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "batchbias", "weight": 0.04883898267529022, "source": "county remaining" } ], "candidate_benchmarks": { "Abdul El-Sayed": { "opponent": "Haley Stevens", "expected_remaining_share_points": 45.83281190141864, "expected_final_county_share_points": 44.879277836582396, "current_county_share_points": 43.2275728780802, "recent_batch_votes": 522, "recent_batch_share_points": 31.226053639846747, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 44.605605457129485, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 44.605605457129485, "required_final_county_share_points": 44.1012367620476, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 44.605605457129485, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": -168.83393016334102, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": false }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 44.605605457129485, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 44.605605457129485, "required_final_county_share_points": 44.1012367620476, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 44.605605457129485, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 45.25768385535758, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 45.25768385535758, "required_final_county_share_points": 44.514650316058216, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.024044322225107804, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999973, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 45.91083310615452, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 45.91083310615452, "required_final_county_share_points": 44.92874278378154, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.003259695682198218, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.9999999999999996, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": 1.227206444289152, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -13.379551817282739, "status": "ABOVE", "recent_status": "WELL BELOW", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.00876070551261586, "criticality_score": 0.007138738191429901, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -206.91339534719629, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 11.88660268739855, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 11.88660268739855, "feasible": true, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 126.25723870632014, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Haley Stevens": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 50.08974230375978, "expected_final_county_share_points": 50.973533023999586, "current_county_share_points": 52.50442905459817, "recent_batch_votes": 522, "recent_batch_share_points": 63.02681992337165, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 51.31694874804893, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 51.31694874804893, "required_final_county_share_points": 51.75157409853439, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 51.31694874804893, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 264.7564843685194, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 51.31694874804893, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 51.31694874804893, "required_final_county_share_points": 51.75157409853439, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 51.31694874804893, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 51.96795247398964, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 51.96795247398964, "required_final_county_share_points": 52.16430631715509, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.07865391656842785, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.999999999999999, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 52.617877730333426, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 52.617877730333426, "required_final_county_share_points": 52.57635479291576, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.10597932088248406, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -1.227206444289152, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": 11.709871175322718, "status": "BELOW", "recent_status": "WELL ABOVE", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.00876070551261586, "criticality_score": 0.007138738191429901, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 302.8359495523747, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 521.6359475869695, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 636.0065836058911, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Mallory McMorrow": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 4.077445794821586, "expected_final_county_share_points": 4.147189139418012, "current_county_share_points": 4.2679980673216305, "recent_batch_votes": 522, "recent_batch_share_points": 5.747126436781609, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 33.19113079950426, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 33.19113079950426, "required_final_county_share_points": 22.605080124363035, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 33.19113079950426, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 5172.622460493366, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 33.19113079950426, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 33.19113079950426, "required_final_county_share_points": 22.605080124363035, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 33.19113079950426, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 33.78345810582155, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 33.78345810582155, "required_final_county_share_points": 22.98061186641672, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.159018308558073, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999906, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 34.373572566360906, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 34.373572566360906, "required_final_county_share_points": 23.35474067833191, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.213613509684069, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.999999999999993, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -29.113685004682672, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -27.444004362722648, "status": "WELL BELOW", "recent_status": "WELL BELOW", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.00876070551261586, "criticality_score": 0.00030091366006078515, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 256.82365304343654, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 475.6236510780313, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 589.994287096953, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } } } }, { "cid": "26147", "county": "26147", "fips": null, "reporting": 0.0, "current_votes": 0, "current_candidate_votes": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 0, "Haley Stevens": 0, "Mallory McMorrow": 0 }, "current_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": null, "Haley Stevens": null, "Mallory McMorrow": null }, "estimated_remaining_votes": 10755.18585599924, "estimated_final_votes": 10755.18585599924, "turnout_disagreement_votes": 0.0, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 47.35787802698279, "Haley Stevens": 48.840422776193336, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.8016991968238676 }, "remaining_sources": [ { "model": "market", "remaining_votes": 10755.18585599924, "weight": 0.1780093144963334 } ], "share_sources": [ { "model": "v0", "weight": 0.03630604611298715, "source": "statewide raw" }, { "model": "v3", "weight": 0.06301781787712588, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "market", "weight": 0.18729675699179427, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "histgeo", "weight": 0.02760802595386354, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "latent", "weight": 0.03563066882913146, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "batchbias", "weight": 0.020512372723621893, "source": "statewide fallback" } ], "candidate_benchmarks": { "Abdul El-Sayed": { "opponent": "Haley Stevens", "expected_remaining_share_points": 47.35787802698279, "expected_final_county_share_points": 47.357878026982796, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 46.12409166333314, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 46.12409166333314, "required_final_county_share_points": 46.12409166333314, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 46.12409166333314, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": -167.30886403777703, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": false }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 46.12409166333314, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 46.12409166333314, "required_final_county_share_points": 46.12409166333314, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 46.12409166333314, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 46.77989456555659, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 46.77989456555659, "required_final_county_share_points": 46.779894565556596, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.024044322225107804, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999973, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 47.43625560333855, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 47.43625560333855, "required_final_county_share_points": 47.43625560333856, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.003259695682198218, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.9999999999999996, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": 1.2337863636496493, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "ABOVE", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.00876070551261586, "criticality_score": 0.007100666509800706, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -205.38832922163215, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 13.411668812962702, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 13.411668812962702, "feasible": true, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 127.78230483188429, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Haley Stevens": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 48.840422776193336, "expected_final_county_share_points": 48.84042277619333, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 50.07420913984299, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 50.07420913984299, "required_final_county_share_points": 50.07420913984299, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 50.07420913984299, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 263.5071648409531, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 50.07420913984299, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 50.07420913984299, "required_final_county_share_points": 50.07420913984299, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 50.07420913984299, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 50.72944812249888, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 50.72944812249888, "required_final_county_share_points": 50.72944812249888, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.07865391656842785, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.999999999999999, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 51.384117411156694, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 51.384117411156694, "required_final_county_share_points": 51.384117411156694, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.10597932088248406, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -1.2337863636496564, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.00876070551261586, "criticality_score": 0.007100666509800665, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 301.58663002480824, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 520.386628059403, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 634.7572640783247, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Mallory McMorrow": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 3.8016991968238676, "expected_final_county_share_points": 3.8016991968238676, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 32.83172907651274, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 32.83172907651274, "required_final_county_share_points": 32.83172907651274, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 32.83172907651274, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 5172.346713895367, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 32.83172907651274, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 32.83172907651274, "required_final_county_share_points": 32.83172907651274, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 32.83172907651274, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 33.45911217382962, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 33.45911217382962, "required_final_county_share_points": 33.45911217382962, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.159018308558073, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999906, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 34.08570176743383, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 34.08570176743383, "required_final_county_share_points": 34.08570176743383, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.213613509684069, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.999999999999993, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -29.03002987968887, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "WELL BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.00876070551261586, "criticality_score": 0.0003017807955735302, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 256.5479064454388, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 475.34790448003355, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 589.7185404989552, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } } } }, { "cid": "26091", "county": "26091", "fips": null, "reporting": 0.0, "current_votes": 0, "current_candidate_votes": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 0, "Haley Stevens": 0, "Mallory McMorrow": 0 }, "current_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": null, "Haley Stevens": null, "Mallory McMorrow": null }, "estimated_remaining_votes": 9669.598638685868, "estimated_final_votes": 9669.598638685868, "turnout_disagreement_votes": 0.0, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 49.45326057381173, "Haley Stevens": 46.839178974492555, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.707560451695713 }, "remaining_sources": [ { "model": "market", "remaining_votes": 9669.598638685868, "weight": 0.1780093144963334 } ], "share_sources": [ { "model": "v0", "weight": 0.03630604611298715, "source": "statewide raw" }, { "model": "v3", "weight": 0.06301781787712588, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "market", "weight": 0.18729675699179427, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "histgeo", "weight": 0.02760802595386354, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "latent", "weight": 0.03563066882913146, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "batchbias", "weight": 0.020512372723621893, "source": "statewide fallback" } ], "candidate_benchmarks": { "Abdul El-Sayed": { "opponent": "Haley Stevens", "expected_remaining_share_points": 49.45326057381173, "expected_final_county_share_points": 49.453260573811725, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.21753450149631, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.21753450149631, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.21753450149631, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 48.21753450149631, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": -189.31370321426488, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": false }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.21753450149631, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.21753450149631, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.21753450149631, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 48.21753450149631, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.874704590997396, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.874704590997396, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.87470459099739, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.024044322225107804, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999973, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 49.531670216098654, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 49.531670216098654, "required_final_county_share_points": 49.531670216098654, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.003259695682198218, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.9999999999999996, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": 1.2357260723154226, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "ABOVE", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.007876433492915, "criticality_score": 0.006373931625604252, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -231.66827662033046, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 11.6959758254307, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 11.6959758254307, "feasible": true, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 138.90678289358368, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Haley Stevens": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 46.839178974492555, "expected_final_county_share_points": 46.83917897449255, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.07490504680796, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.07490504680796, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.07490504680797, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 48.07490504680796, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 285.60614276256916, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.07490504680796, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.07490504680796, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.07490504680797, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 48.07490504680796, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.73227317566207, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.73227317566207, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.73227317566207, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.07865391656842785, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.999999999999999, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 49.3898328994224, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 49.3898328994224, "required_final_county_share_points": 49.38983289942241, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.10597932088248406, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -1.2357260723154084, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.007876433492915, "criticality_score": 0.0063739316256043255, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 327.96071616863475, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 571.324968614396, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 698.535775682549, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Mallory McMorrow": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 3.707560451695713, "expected_final_county_share_points": 3.707560451695713, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 33.27257907093374, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 33.27257907093374, "required_final_county_share_points": 33.27257907093374, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 33.27257907093374, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 5752.515170292247, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 33.27257907093374, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 33.27257907093374, "required_final_county_share_points": 33.27257907093374, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 33.27257907093374, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 33.937107256748334, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 33.937107256748334, "required_final_county_share_points": 33.937107256748334, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.159018308558073, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999906, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 34.60191950368675, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 34.60191950368675, "required_final_county_share_points": 34.60191950368675, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.213613509684069, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.999999999999993, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -29.565018619238025, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "WELL BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.007876433492915, "criticality_score": 0.0002664105710317323, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 284.8290976458379, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 528.1933500915991, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 655.4041571597521, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } } } }, { "cid": "fips:26091", "county": "Lenawee", "fips": "26091", "reporting": 0.0, "current_votes": 0, "current_candidate_votes": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 0, "Haley Stevens": 0, "Mallory McMorrow": 0 }, "current_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": null, "Haley Stevens": null, "Mallory McMorrow": null }, "estimated_remaining_votes": 9669.598638685866, "estimated_final_votes": 9669.598638685866, "turnout_disagreement_votes": 1.8189894035458565e-12, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 49.40484154496592, "Haley Stevens": 46.76140133975397, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.8337571152801133 }, "remaining_sources": [ { "model": "v3", "remaining_votes": 9669.598638685868, "weight": 0.1342208488636769 }, { "model": "histgeo", "remaining_votes": 9669.598638685868, "weight": 0.05994207394479305 }, { "model": "latent", "remaining_votes": 9669.598638685868, "weight": 0.07672787409296966 }, { "model": "batchbias", "remaining_votes": 9669.598638685868, "weight": 0.045123489075924846 } ], "share_sources": [ { "model": "v0", "weight": 0.03630604611298715, "source": "statewide raw" }, { "model": "v3", "weight": 0.15004242351696637, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "market", "weight": 0.0786646379365536, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "histgeo", "weight": 0.06573339512824654, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "latent", "weight": 0.08483492578364633, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "batchbias", "weight": 0.04883898267529022, "source": "county remaining" } ], "candidate_benchmarks": { "Abdul El-Sayed": { "opponent": "Haley Stevens", "expected_remaining_share_points": 49.40484154496592, "expected_final_county_share_points": 49.40484154496592, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.17074715851927, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.17074715851927, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.170747158519276, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 48.17074715851927, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": -189.36212224311055, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": false }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.17074715851927, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.17074715851927, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.170747158519276, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 48.17074715851927, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.827052193634955, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.827052193634955, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.82705219363495, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.024044322225107804, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999973, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 49.483146923868745, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 49.483146923868745, "required_final_county_share_points": 49.48314692386875, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.003259695682198218, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.9999999999999996, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": 1.2340943864466496, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "ABOVE", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.007876433492914997, "criticality_score": 0.006382359063793942, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -231.71669564917636, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 11.647556796584873, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 11.647556796584873, "feasible": true, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 138.8583638647379, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Haley Stevens": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 46.76140133975397, "expected_final_county_share_points": 46.76140133975397, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 47.9954957262006, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 47.9954957262006, "required_final_county_share_points": 47.9954957262006, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 47.9954957262006, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 285.52836512783045, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 47.9954957262006, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 47.9954957262006, "required_final_county_share_points": 47.9954957262006, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 47.9954957262006, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.65200465530991, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.65200465530991, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.6520046553099, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.07865391656842785, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.999999999999999, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 49.30871104791245, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 49.30871104791245, "required_final_county_share_points": 49.30871104791246, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.10597932088248406, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -1.2340943864466354, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.007876433492914997, "criticality_score": 0.006382359063794015, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 327.8829385338962, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 571.2471909796575, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 698.4579980478105, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Mallory McMorrow": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 3.8337571152801133, "expected_final_county_share_points": 3.8337571152801133, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 33.74882454142502, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 33.74882454142502, "required_final_county_share_points": 33.74882454142502, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 33.74882454142502, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 5752.641366955833, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 33.74882454142502, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 33.74882454142502, "required_final_county_share_points": 33.74882454142502, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 33.74882454142502, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 34.40811213788416, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 34.40811213788416, "required_final_county_share_points": 34.40811213788416, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.159018308558073, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999906, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 35.067116345943184, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 35.067116345943184, "required_final_county_share_points": 35.067116345943184, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.213613509684069, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.999999999999993, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -29.91506742614491, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "WELL BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.007876433492914997, "criticality_score": 0.0002632931887036705, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 284.95529430942236, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 528.3195467551836, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 655.5303538233367, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } } } }, { "cid": "26087", "county": "26087", "fips": null, "reporting": 0.0, "current_votes": 0, "current_candidate_votes": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 0, "Haley Stevens": 0, "Mallory McMorrow": 0 }, "current_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": null, "Haley Stevens": null, "Mallory McMorrow": null }, "estimated_remaining_votes": 8180.641770206287, "estimated_final_votes": 8180.641770206287, "turnout_disagreement_votes": 9.094947017729282e-13, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 47.492763922216724, "Haley Stevens": 48.89128799036895, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.6159480874143175 }, "remaining_sources": [ { "model": "market", "remaining_votes": 8180.641770206288, "weight": 0.1780093144963334 } ], "share_sources": [ { "model": "v0", "weight": 0.03630604611298715, "source": "statewide raw" }, { "model": "v3", "weight": 0.06301781787712588, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "market", "weight": 0.18729675699179427, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "histgeo", "weight": 0.02760802595386354, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "latent", "weight": 0.03563066882913146, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "batchbias", "weight": 0.020512372723621893, "source": "statewide fallback" } ], "candidate_benchmarks": { "Abdul El-Sayed": { "opponent": "Haley Stevens", "expected_remaining_share_points": 47.492763922216724, "expected_final_county_share_points": 47.492763922216724, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 46.256533276068595, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 46.256533276068595, "required_final_county_share_points": 46.256533276068595, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 46.256533276068595, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": -234.73212415647495, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": false }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 46.256533276068595, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 46.256533276068595, "required_final_county_share_points": 46.256533276068595, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 46.256533276068595, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 46.913642523992635, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 46.913642523992635, "required_final_county_share_points": 46.913642523992635, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.024044322225107804, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999973, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 47.57129484250533, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 47.57129484250533, "required_final_county_share_points": 47.57129484250533, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.003259695682198218, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.9999999999999996, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": 1.2362306461481296, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "ABOVE", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.006663594140774916, "criticality_score": 0.005390251537233336, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -284.7956444588789, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 2.8632838081873047, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 2.8632838081873047, "feasible": true, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 153.22770281162747, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Haley Stevens": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 48.89128799036895, "expected_final_county_share_points": 48.89128799036896, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 50.12751863651709, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 50.12751863651709, "required_final_county_share_points": 50.12751863651709, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 50.12751863651709, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 331.1161760690606, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 50.12751863651709, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 50.12751863651709, "required_final_county_share_points": 50.12751863651709, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 50.12751863651709, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 50.78407897745313, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 50.78407897745313, "required_final_county_share_points": 50.78407897745313, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.07865391656842785, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.999999999999999, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 51.44008458406315, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 51.44008458406315, "required_final_county_share_points": 51.44008458406315, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.10597932088248406, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -1.2362306461481367, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.006663594140774916, "criticality_score": 0.005390251537233305, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 381.17969637146456, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 668.8386246385307, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 819.2030436419709, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Mallory McMorrow": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 3.6159480874143175, "expected_final_county_share_points": 3.6159480874143175, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 32.172494533581066, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 32.172494533581066, "required_final_county_share_points": 32.172494533581066, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 32.172494533581066, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 6798.762808158199, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 32.172494533581066, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 32.172494533581066, "required_final_county_share_points": 32.172494533581066, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 32.172494533581066, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 32.80873554394479, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 32.80873554394479, "required_final_county_share_points": 32.80873554394479, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.159018308558073, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999906, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 33.44500349527299, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 33.44500349527299, "required_final_county_share_points": 33.44500349527299, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.213613509684069, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.999999999999993, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -28.55654644616675, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "WELL BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.006663594140774916, "criticality_score": 0.0002333473395789215, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 335.90435646850995, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 623.5632847355761, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 773.9277037390162, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } } } }, { "cid": "fips:26087", "county": "Lapeer", "fips": "26087", "reporting": 7.41, "current_votes": 685, "current_candidate_votes": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 258, "Haley Stevens": 399, "Mallory McMorrow": 28 }, "current_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 37.66423357664234, "Haley Stevens": 58.24817518248175, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.087591240875913 }, "estimated_remaining_votes": 8180.641770206287, "estimated_final_votes": 8865.641770206286, "turnout_disagreement_votes": 9.094947017729282e-13, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 44.72409096920356, "Haley Stevens": 51.33780540183276, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.9381036289636753 }, "remaining_sources": [ { "model": "v3", "remaining_votes": 8180.641770206288, "weight": 0.1342208488636769 }, { "model": "histgeo", "remaining_votes": 8180.641770206288, "weight": 0.05994207394479305 }, { "model": "latent", "remaining_votes": 8180.641770206288, "weight": 0.07672787409296966 }, { "model": "batchbias", "remaining_votes": 8180.641770206288, "weight": 0.045123489075924846 } ], "share_sources": [ { "model": "v0", "weight": 0.03630604611298715, "source": "statewide raw" }, { "model": "v1", "weight": 0.14599140026529184, "source": "county live" }, { "model": "v3", "weight": 0.15004242351696637, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "market", "weight": 0.0786646379365536, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "histgeo", "weight": 0.06573339512824654, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "latent", "weight": 0.08483492578364633, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "batchbias", "weight": 0.04883898267529022, "source": "county remaining" } ], "candidate_benchmarks": { "Abdul El-Sayed": { "opponent": "Haley Stevens", "expected_remaining_share_points": 44.72409096920356, "expected_final_county_share_points": 44.17861412282835, "current_county_share_points": 37.66423357664234, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 43.49928200064763, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 43.49928200064763, "required_final_county_share_points": 43.048439492677616, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 43.49928200064763, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": -237.50079710948805, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": false }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 43.49928200064763, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 43.49928200064763, "required_final_county_share_points": 43.048439492677616, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 43.49928200064763, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 44.149895210936045, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 44.149895210936045, "required_final_county_share_points": 43.64878335297433, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.024044322225107804, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999973, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 44.80201171029029, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 44.80201171029029, "required_final_county_share_points": 44.25051435135346, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.003259695682198218, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.9999999999999996, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": 1.2248089685559265, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "ABOVE", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.006663594140774916, "criticality_score": 0.00544051710254165, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -287.56431741189203, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 0.09461085517413892, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.09461085517413892, "feasible": true, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 150.45902985861431, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Haley Stevens": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 51.33780540183276, "expected_final_county_share_points": 51.8717321521389, "current_county_share_points": 58.24817518248175, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 52.56261437038868, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 52.56261437038868, "required_final_county_share_points": 53.001906782289645, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 52.56261437038868, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 333.5626934805244, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 52.56261437038868, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 52.56261437038868, "required_final_county_share_points": 53.001906782289645, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 52.56261437038868, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 53.21172305363015, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 53.21172305363015, "required_final_county_share_points": 53.600862362174894, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.07865391656842785, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.999999999999999, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 53.85932599592864, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 53.85932599592864, "required_final_county_share_points": 54.198428541543784, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.10597932088248406, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -1.2248089685559194, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.006663594140774916, "criticality_score": 0.0054405171025416815, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 383.6262137829284, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 671.2851420499945, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 821.6495610534347, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Mallory McMorrow": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 3.9381036289636753, "expected_final_county_share_points": 3.949653725032751, "current_county_share_points": 4.087591240875913, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 32.249482010879674, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 32.249482010879674, "required_final_county_share_points": 30.07356562744523, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 32.249482010879674, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 6799.084963699748, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 32.249482010879674, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 32.249482010879674, "required_final_county_share_points": 30.07356562744523, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 32.249482010879674, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 32.829018033308586, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 32.829018033308586, "required_final_county_share_points": 30.608324048246043, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.159018308558073, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999906, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 33.40652993372774, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 33.40652993372774, "required_final_county_share_points": 31.141214739954, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.213613509684069, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.999999999999993, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -28.311378381916, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "WELL BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.006663594140774916, "criticality_score": 0.0002353680577075439, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 336.2265120100593, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 623.8854402771254, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 774.2498592805656, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } } } }, { "cid": "fips:26111", "county": "Midland", "fips": "26111", "reporting": 38.17, "current_votes": 3780, "current_candidate_votes": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 1603, "Haley Stevens": 1999, "Mallory McMorrow": 178 }, "current_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 42.407407407407405, "Haley Stevens": 52.883597883597886, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.708994708994709 }, "estimated_remaining_votes": 7037.057104082069, "estimated_final_votes": 10817.057104082069, "turnout_disagreement_votes": 0.0, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 45.19162299853491, "Haley Stevens": 50.456543886001384, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.3518331154637 }, "remaining_sources": [ { "model": "v3", "remaining_votes": 7037.057104082069, "weight": 0.1342208488636769 }, { "model": "histgeo", "remaining_votes": 7037.057104082069, "weight": 0.05994207394479305 }, { "model": "latent", "remaining_votes": 7037.057104082069, "weight": 0.07672787409296966 }, { "model": "batchbias", "remaining_votes": 7037.057104082069, "weight": 0.045123489075924846 } ], "share_sources": [ { "model": "v0", "weight": 0.03630604611298715, "source": "statewide raw" }, { "model": "v1", "weight": 0.14599140026529184, "source": "county live" }, { "model": "v3", "weight": 0.15004242351696637, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "market", "weight": 0.0786646379365536, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "histgeo", "weight": 0.06573339512824654, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "latent", "weight": 0.08483492578364633, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "batchbias", "weight": 0.04883898267529022, "source": "county remaining" } ], "candidate_benchmarks": { "Abdul El-Sayed": { "opponent": "Haley Stevens", "expected_remaining_share_points": 45.19162299853491, "expected_final_county_share_points": 44.21868416376715, "current_county_share_points": 42.407407407407405, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 43.969561372027854, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 43.969561372027854, "required_final_county_share_points": 43.42366964478192, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 43.969561372027854, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": -282.8973314976655, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": false }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 43.969561372027854, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 43.969561372027854, "required_final_county_share_points": 43.42366964478192, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 43.969561372027854, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 44.61882285783133, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 44.61882285783133, "required_final_county_share_points": 43.84604794112612, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.024044322225107804, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999973, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 45.269339711514775, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 45.269339711514775, "required_final_county_share_points": 44.26924291943596, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.003259695682198218, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.9999999999999996, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": 1.222061626507056, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "ABOVE", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.0057320799277435315, "criticality_score": 0.004690499892486752, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -341.09662124221467, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -6.690546465690886, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 168.10943435850865, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Haley Stevens": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 50.456543886001384, "expected_final_county_share_points": 51.30467328225396, "current_county_share_points": 52.883597883597886, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 51.678605512508426, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 51.678605512508426, "required_final_county_share_points": 52.09968780123917, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 51.678605512508426, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 378.5454983822018, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 51.678605512508426, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 51.678605512508426, "required_final_county_share_points": 52.09968780123917, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 51.678605512508426, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 52.3266088404161, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 52.3266088404161, "required_final_county_share_points": 52.52124760056767, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.07865391656842785, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.999999999999999, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 52.97335124472781, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 52.97335124472781, "required_final_county_share_points": 52.94198710364889, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.10597932088248406, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -1.2220616265070419, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.0057320799277435315, "criticality_score": 0.0046904998924868066, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 436.74478812675096, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 771.1508629032746, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 945.9508437274742, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Mallory McMorrow": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 4.3518331154637, "expected_final_county_share_points": 4.4766425539788886, "current_county_share_points": 4.708994708994709, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 33.80975319683997, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 33.80975319683997, "required_final_county_share_points": 23.640548576246474, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 33.80975319683997, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 7903.770782826015, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 33.80975319683997, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 33.80975319683997, "required_final_county_share_points": 23.640548576246474, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 33.80975319683997, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 34.381231765300555, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 34.381231765300555, "required_final_county_share_points": 24.012325047547392, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.159018308558073, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999906, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 34.94952316265163, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 34.94952316265163, "required_final_county_share_points": 24.3820280986119, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.213613509684069, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.999999999999993, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -29.457920081376272, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "WELL BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.0057320799277435315, "criticality_score": 0.00019458535809415263, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 390.6400773562133, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 725.046152132737, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 899.8461329569366, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } } } }, { "cid": "26111", "county": "26111", "fips": null, "reporting": 0.0, "current_votes": 0, "current_candidate_votes": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 0, "Haley Stevens": 0, "Mallory McMorrow": 0 }, "current_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": null, "Haley Stevens": null, "Mallory McMorrow": null }, "estimated_remaining_votes": 7037.057104082069, "estimated_final_votes": 7037.057104082069, "turnout_disagreement_votes": 0.0, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 46.57792626117934, "Haley Stevens": 49.255133459520195, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.166940279300457 }, "remaining_sources": [ { "model": "market", "remaining_votes": 7037.057104082069, "weight": 0.1780093144963334 } ], "share_sources": [ { "model": "v0", "weight": 0.03630604611298715, "source": "statewide raw" }, { "model": "v3", "weight": 0.06301781787712588, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "market", "weight": 0.18729675699179427, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "histgeo", "weight": 0.02760802595386354, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "latent", "weight": 0.03563066882913146, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "batchbias", "weight": 0.020512372723621893, "source": "statewide fallback" } ], "candidate_benchmarks": { "Abdul El-Sayed": { "opponent": "Haley Stevens", "expected_remaining_share_points": 46.57792626117934, "expected_final_county_share_points": 46.577926261179336, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 45.349886369488424, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 45.349886369488424, "required_final_county_share_points": 45.34988636948842, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 45.349886369488424, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": -281.5110282350207, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": false }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 45.349886369488424, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 45.349886369488424, "required_final_county_share_points": 45.34988636948842, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 45.349886369488424, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 46.00253656009193, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 46.00253656009193, "required_final_county_share_points": 46.00253656009193, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.024044322225107804, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999973, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 46.65596544920646, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 46.65596544920646, "required_final_county_share_points": 46.65596544920646, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.003259695682198218, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.9999999999999996, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": 1.2280398916909192, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "ABOVE", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.0057320799277435315, "criticality_score": 0.0046676659011873674, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -339.7103179795702, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -5.304243203046454, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 169.49573762115307, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Haley Stevens": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 49.255133459520195, "expected_final_county_share_points": 49.255133459520195, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 50.4831733512111, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 50.4831733512111, "required_final_county_share_points": 50.4831733512111, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 50.4831733512111, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 377.3440879557202, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 50.4831733512111, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 50.4831733512111, "required_final_county_share_points": 50.4831733512111, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 50.4831733512111, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 51.13503977336495, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 51.13503977336495, "required_final_county_share_points": 51.13503977336495, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.07865391656842785, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.999999999999999, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 51.78611737335274, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 51.78611737335274, "required_final_county_share_points": 51.78611737335274, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.10597932088248406, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -1.228039891690905, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.0057320799277435315, "criticality_score": 0.004667665901187421, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 435.5433777002698, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 769.9494524767935, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 944.749433300993, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Mallory McMorrow": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 4.166940279300457, "expected_final_county_share_points": 4.166940279300458, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 33.809233454088464, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 33.809233454088464, "required_final_county_share_points": 33.809233454088464, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 33.809233454088464, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 7903.585889989853, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 33.809233454088464, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 33.809233454088464, "required_final_county_share_points": 33.809233454088464, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 33.809233454088464, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 34.410312809490804, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 34.410312809490804, "required_final_county_share_points": 34.410312809490804, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.159018308558073, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999906, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 35.00906747426667, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 35.00906747426667, "required_final_county_share_points": 35.00906747426667, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.213613509684069, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.999999999999993, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -29.64229317478801, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "WELL BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.0057320799277435315, "criticality_score": 0.00019337505009966305, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 390.45518452005, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 724.8612592965737, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 899.6612401207733, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } } } }, { "cid": "fips:26159", "county": "Van Buren", "fips": "26159", "reporting": 21.44, "current_votes": 1748, "current_candidate_votes": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 790, "Haley Stevens": 881, "Mallory McMorrow": 77 }, "current_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 45.19450800915332, "Haley Stevens": 50.400457665903886, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.4050343249427915 }, "estimated_remaining_votes": 6516.409355732237, "estimated_final_votes": 8264.409355732238, "turnout_disagreement_votes": 9.094947017729282e-13, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 47.25552132257438, "Haley Stevens": 48.62489070055419, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.119587976871421 }, "remaining_sources": [ { "model": "v3", "remaining_votes": 6516.409355732236, "weight": 0.1342208488636769 }, { "model": "histgeo", "remaining_votes": 6516.409355732236, "weight": 0.05994207394479305 }, { "model": "latent", "remaining_votes": 6516.409355732236, "weight": 0.07672787409296966 }, { "model": "batchbias", "remaining_votes": 6516.409355732236, "weight": 0.045123489075924846 } ], "share_sources": [ { "model": "v0", "weight": 0.03630604611298715, "source": "statewide raw" }, { "model": "v1", "weight": 0.14599140026529184, "source": "county live" }, { "model": "v3", "weight": 0.15004242351696637, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "market", "weight": 0.0786646379365536, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "histgeo", "weight": 0.06573339512824654, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "latent", "weight": 0.08483492578364633, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "batchbias", "weight": 0.04883898267529022, "source": "county remaining" } ], "candidate_benchmarks": { "Abdul El-Sayed": { "opponent": "Haley Stevens", "expected_remaining_share_points": 47.25552132257438, "expected_final_county_share_points": 46.819597699144325, "current_county_share_points": 45.19450800915332, "recent_batch_votes": 948, "recent_batch_share_points": 38.39662447257383, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 46.025735148483164, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 46.025735148483164, "required_final_county_share_points": 45.84992282155132, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 46.025735148483164, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": -307.0470680286294, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": false }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 46.025735148483164, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 46.025735148483164, "required_final_county_share_points": 45.84992282155132, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 46.025735148483164, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 46.67942067525063, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 46.67942067525063, "required_final_county_share_points": 46.36534773565963, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.024044322225107804, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999973, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 47.33364237533843, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 47.33364237533843, "required_final_county_share_points": 46.881195417408144, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.003259695682198218, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.9999999999999996, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": 1.2297861740912168, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -7.629110675909331, "status": "ABOVE", "recent_status": "WELL BELOW", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.0053079829702227885, "criticality_score": 0.004316183643994261, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -369.8963617104555, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -8.77192711914411, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 179.99421381862408, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Haley Stevens": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 48.62489070055419, "expected_final_county_share_points": 49.000439747296234, "current_county_share_points": 50.400457665903886, "recent_batch_votes": 948, "recent_batch_share_points": 56.118143459915615, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 49.854676874645406, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 49.854676874645406, "required_final_county_share_points": 49.970114624889234, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 49.854676874645406, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 402.9274800517579, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 49.854676874645406, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 49.854676874645406, "required_final_county_share_points": 49.970114624889234, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 49.854676874645406, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 50.50782041201335, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 50.50782041201335, "required_final_county_share_points": 50.48511218543341, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.07865391656842785, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.999999999999999, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 51.16041615278084, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 51.16041615278084, "required_final_county_share_points": 50.99967781348988, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.10597932088248406, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -1.2297861740912168, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": 6.2634665852702085, "status": "BELOW", "recent_status": "WELL ABOVE", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.0053079829702227885, "criticality_score": 0.004316183643994261, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 465.7767737335841, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 826.9012083248954, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1015.6673492626637, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Mallory McMorrow": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 4.119587976871421, "expected_final_county_share_points": 4.17996255355943, "current_county_share_points": 4.4050343249427915, "recent_batch_votes": 948, "recent_batch_share_points": 5.485232067510549, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 33.93232968573761, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 33.93232968573761, "required_final_county_share_points": 27.687030104241227, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 33.93232968573761, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 8534.685917313122, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 33.93232968573761, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 33.93232968573761, "required_final_county_share_points": 27.687030104241227, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 33.93232968573761, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 34.546229437520005, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 34.546229437520005, "required_final_county_share_points": 28.171084307488275, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.159018308558073, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999906, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 35.158130823795574, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 35.158130823795574, "required_final_county_share_points": 28.65356281825396, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.213613509684069, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.999999999999993, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -29.81274170886619, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -28.447097618227065, "status": "WELL BELOW", "recent_status": "WELL BELOW", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.0053079829702227885, "criticality_score": 0.0001780441068472483, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 421.2714710099013, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 782.3959056012127, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 971.162046538981, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } } } }, { "cid": "26159", "county": "26159", "fips": null, "reporting": 0.0, "current_votes": 0, "current_candidate_votes": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 0, "Haley Stevens": 0, "Mallory McMorrow": 0 }, "current_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": null, "Haley Stevens": null, "Mallory McMorrow": null }, "estimated_remaining_votes": 6516.409355732237, "estimated_final_votes": 6516.409355732237, "turnout_disagreement_votes": 9.094947017729282e-13, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 49.51528277225422, "Haley Stevens": 46.53771776940703, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.946999458338755 }, "remaining_sources": [ { "model": "market", "remaining_votes": 6516.409355732236, "weight": 0.1780093144963334 } ], "share_sources": [ { "model": "v0", "weight": 0.03630604611298715, "source": "statewide raw" }, { "model": "v3", "weight": 0.06301781787712588, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "market", "weight": 0.18729675699179427, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "histgeo", "weight": 0.02760802595386354, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "latent", "weight": 0.03563066882913146, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "batchbias", "weight": 0.020512372723621893, "source": "statewide fallback" } ], "candidate_benchmarks": { "Abdul El-Sayed": { "opponent": "Haley Stevens", "expected_remaining_share_points": 49.51528277225422, "expected_final_county_share_points": 49.51528277225422, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.28278378017898, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.28278378017898, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.282783780178974, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 48.28278378017898, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": -304.78730657894937, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": false }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.28278378017898, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.28278378017898, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.282783780178974, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 48.28278378017898, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.93826804224571, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.93826804224571, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.93826804224571, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.024044322225107804, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999973, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 49.593479420804734, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 49.593479420804734, "required_final_county_share_points": 49.593479420804734, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.003259695682198218, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.9999999999999996, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": 1.2324989920752358, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "ABOVE", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.0053079829702227885, "criticality_score": 0.00430668341666179, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -367.63660026077565, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -6.512165669464274, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 182.25397526830392, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Haley Stevens": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 46.53771776940703, "expected_final_county_share_points": 46.537717769407024, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 47.770216761482274, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 47.770216761482274, "required_final_county_share_points": 47.770216761482274, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 47.770216761482274, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 400.84030712061065, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 47.770216761482274, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 47.770216761482274, "required_final_county_share_points": 47.770216761482274, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 47.770216761482274, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.42596757275519, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.42596757275519, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.42596757275519, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.07865391656842785, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.999999999999999, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 49.08197857692001, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 49.08197857692001, "required_final_county_share_points": 49.081978576920015, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.10597932088248406, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -1.232498992075243, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.0053079829702227885, "criticality_score": 0.0043066834166617645, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 463.6896008024369, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 824.8140353937482, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1013.5801763315166, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Mallory McMorrow": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 3.946999458338755, "expected_final_county_share_points": 3.9469994583387544, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 34.22286820767025, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 34.22286820767025, "required_final_county_share_points": 34.22286820767025, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 34.22286820767025, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 8534.51332879459, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 34.22286820767025, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 34.22286820767025, "required_final_county_share_points": 34.22286820767025, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 34.22286820767025, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 34.87984921558222, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 34.87984921558222, "required_final_county_share_points": 34.87984921558222, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.159018308558073, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999906, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 35.53611265104667, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 35.53611265104667, "required_final_county_share_points": 35.53611265104667, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.213613509684069, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.999999999999993, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -30.275868749331497, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "WELL BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.0053079829702227885, "criticality_score": 0.00017532058333883453, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 421.09888249136867, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 782.22331708268, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 970.9894580204483, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } } } }, { "cid": "26073", "county": "26073", "fips": null, "reporting": 0.0, "current_votes": 0, "current_candidate_votes": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 0, "Haley Stevens": 0, "Mallory McMorrow": 0 }, "current_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": null, "Haley Stevens": null, "Mallory McMorrow": null }, "estimated_remaining_votes": 6240.3953919174755, "estimated_final_votes": 6240.3953919174755, "turnout_disagreement_votes": 0.0, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 48.29669880561634, "Haley Stevens": 47.412322142179555, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.290979052204104 }, "remaining_sources": [ { "model": "market", "remaining_votes": 6240.3953919174755, "weight": 0.1780093144963334 } ], "share_sources": [ { "model": "v0", "weight": 0.03630604611298715, "source": "statewide raw" }, { "model": "v3", "weight": 0.06301781787712588, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "market", "weight": 0.18729675699179427, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "histgeo", "weight": 0.02760802595386354, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "latent", "weight": 0.03563066882913146, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "batchbias", "weight": 0.020512372723621893, "source": "statewide fallback" } ], "candidate_benchmarks": { "Abdul El-Sayed": { "opponent": "Haley Stevens", "expected_remaining_share_points": 48.29669880561634, "expected_final_county_share_points": 48.29669880561634, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 47.06822390057636, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 47.06822390057636, "required_final_county_share_points": 47.06822390057636, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 47.06822390057636, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": -321.6767664973445, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": false }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 47.06822390057636, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 47.06822390057636, "required_final_county_share_points": 47.06822390057636, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 47.06822390057636, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 47.72139709974878, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 47.72139709974878, "required_final_county_share_points": 47.721397099748785, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.024044322225107804, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999973, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.37468647317589, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.37468647317589, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.37468647317589, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.003259695682198218, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.9999999999999996, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": 1.228474905039974, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "ABOVE", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.005083154028470737, "criticality_score": 0.004137776040533229, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -387.30589728605514, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -10.208855133528687, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 186.9064508045425, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Haley Stevens": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 47.412322142179555, "expected_final_county_share_points": 47.412322142179555, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.64079704721954, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.64079704721954, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.64079704721954, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 48.64079704721954, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 417.38578744514035, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.64079704721954, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.64079704721954, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.64079704721954, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 48.64079704721954, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 49.293847627020035, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 49.293847627020035, "required_final_county_share_points": 49.293847627020035, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.07865391656842785, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.999999999999999, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 49.946769135669626, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 49.946769135669626, "required_final_county_share_points": 49.946769135669626, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.10597932088248406, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -1.2284749050399881, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.005083154028470737, "criticality_score": 0.004137776040533181, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 483.01491823385106, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 860.1119603863774, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1057.2272663244487, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Mallory McMorrow": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 4.290979052204104, "expected_final_county_share_points": 4.290979052204105, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 34.95620564890421, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 34.95620564890421, "required_final_county_share_points": 34.95620564890421, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 34.95620564890421, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 8912.166000910478, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 34.95620564890421, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 34.95620564890421, "required_final_county_share_points": 34.95620564890421, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 34.95620564890421, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 35.58058939785999, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 35.58058939785999, "required_final_county_share_points": 35.58058939785999, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.159018308558073, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999906, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 36.20265998323656, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 36.20265998323656, "required_final_county_share_points": 36.20265998323656, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.213613509684069, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.999999999999993, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -30.665226596700105, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "WELL BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.005083154028470737, "criticality_score": 0.00016576280669055083, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 439.8935751438756, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 816.990617296402, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1014.1059232344732, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } } } }, { "cid": "fips:26073", "county": "Isabella", "fips": "26073", "reporting": 23.48, "current_votes": 1752, "current_candidate_votes": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 846, "Haley Stevens": 813, "Mallory McMorrow": 93 }, "current_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 48.28767123287671, "Haley Stevens": 46.4041095890411, "Mallory McMorrow": 5.308219178082192 }, "estimated_remaining_votes": 6240.395391917475, "estimated_final_votes": 7992.395391917475, "turnout_disagreement_votes": 9.094947017729282e-13, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 48.8925809522907, "Haley Stevens": 46.526053035113435, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.581366012595873 }, "remaining_sources": [ { "model": "v3", "remaining_votes": 6240.3953919174755, "weight": 0.1342208488636769 }, { "model": "histgeo", "remaining_votes": 6240.3953919174755, "weight": 0.05994207394479305 }, { "model": "latent", "remaining_votes": 6240.3953919174755, "weight": 0.07672787409296966 }, { "model": "batchbias", "remaining_votes": 6240.3953919174755, "weight": 0.045123489075924846 } ], "share_sources": [ { "model": "v0", "weight": 0.03630604611298715, "source": "statewide raw" }, { "model": "v1", "weight": 0.14599140026529184, "source": "county live" }, { "model": "v3", "weight": 0.15004242351696637, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "market", "weight": 0.0786646379365536, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "histgeo", "weight": 0.06573339512824654, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "latent", "weight": 0.08483492578364633, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "batchbias", "weight": 0.04883898267529022, "source": "county remaining" } ], "candidate_benchmarks": { "Abdul El-Sayed": { "opponent": "Haley Stevens", "expected_remaining_share_points": 48.8925809522907, "expected_final_county_share_points": 48.759979676147, "current_county_share_points": 48.28767123287671, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 47.66799292688369, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 47.66799292688369, "required_final_county_share_points": 47.80383160088094, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 47.66799292688369, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": -321.0808843506707, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": false }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 47.66799292688369, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 47.66799292688369, "required_final_county_share_points": 47.80383160088094, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 47.66799292688369, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.31922133349791, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.31922133349791, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.3123052872342, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.024044322225107804, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999973, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.97028883887759, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.97028883887759, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.82065334325097, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.003259695682198218, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.9999999999999996, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": 1.2245880254070087, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "ABOVE", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.005083154028470737, "criticality_score": 0.004150909467517683, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -386.7100151393808, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -9.612972986854324, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 187.50233295121686, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Haley Stevens": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 46.526053035113435, "expected_final_county_share_points": 46.499322010552916, "current_county_share_points": 46.4041095890411, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 47.750641060520444, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 47.750641060520444, "required_final_county_share_points": 47.45547008581897, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 47.750641060520444, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 416.4995183380749, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 47.750641060520444, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 47.750641060520444, "required_final_county_share_points": 47.45547008581897, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 47.750641060520444, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.40202396708471, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.40202396708471, "required_final_county_share_points": 47.96406440443942, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.07865391656842785, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.999999999999999, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 49.05355495472061, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 49.05355495472061, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.472774343520534, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.10597932088248406, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -1.2245880254070087, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.005083154028470737, "criticality_score": 0.004150909467517683, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 482.1286491267849, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 859.2256912793114, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1056.3409972173824, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Mallory McMorrow": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 4.581366012595873, "expected_final_county_share_points": 4.740698313300094, "current_county_share_points": 5.308219178082192, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 36.1739198229107, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 36.1739198229107, "required_final_county_share_points": 29.407899765341217, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 36.1739198229107, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 8912.45638787087, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 36.1739198229107, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 36.1739198229107, "required_final_county_share_points": 29.407899765341217, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 36.1739198229107, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 36.79701005774318, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 36.79701005774318, "required_final_county_share_points": 29.894403402802595, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.159018308558073, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999906, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 37.41701679916838, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 37.41701679916838, "required_final_county_share_points": 30.37849947443342, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.213613509684069, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.999999999999993, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -31.592553810314826, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "WELL BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.005083154028470737, "criticality_score": 0.00016089721834425144, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 440.1839621042674, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 817.2810042567937, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1014.3963101948649, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } } } }, { "cid": "fips:26089", "county": "Leelanau", "fips": "26089", "reporting": 15.83, "current_votes": 903, "current_candidate_votes": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 495, "Haley Stevens": 382, "Mallory McMorrow": 26 }, "current_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 54.81727574750831, "Haley Stevens": 42.30343300110742, "Mallory McMorrow": 2.8792912513842746 }, "estimated_remaining_votes": 5496.342097041341, "estimated_final_votes": 6399.342097041341, "turnout_disagreement_votes": 0.0, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 51.92963635912877, "Haley Stevens": 44.689655617645144, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.3807080232260818 }, "remaining_sources": [ { "model": "v3", "remaining_votes": 5496.342097041341, "weight": 0.1342208488636769 }, { "model": "histgeo", "remaining_votes": 5496.342097041341, "weight": 0.05994207394479305 }, { "model": "latent", "remaining_votes": 5496.342097041341, "weight": 0.07672787409296966 }, { "model": "batchbias", "remaining_votes": 5496.342097041341, "weight": 0.045123489075924846 } ], "share_sources": [ { "model": "v0", "weight": 0.03630604611298715, "source": "statewide raw" }, { "model": "v1", "weight": 0.14599140026529184, "source": "county live" }, { "model": "v3", "weight": 0.15004242351696637, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "market", "weight": 0.0786646379365536, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "histgeo", "weight": 0.06573339512824654, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "latent", "weight": 0.08483492578364633, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "batchbias", "weight": 0.04883898267529022, "source": "county remaining" } ], "candidate_benchmarks": { "Abdul El-Sayed": { "opponent": "Haley Stevens", "expected_remaining_share_points": 51.92963635912877, "expected_final_county_share_points": 52.337106115888965, "current_county_share_points": 54.81727574750831, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 50.69425226719954, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 50.69425226719954, "required_final_county_share_points": 51.27604491810972, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 50.69425226719954, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": -368.1280433204432, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": false }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 50.69425226719954, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 50.69425226719954, "required_final_county_share_points": 51.27604491810972, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 50.69425226719954, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 51.351618242492705, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 51.351618242492705, "required_final_county_share_points": 51.840651127369405, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.024044322225107804, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999973, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 52.007921993383974, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 52.007921993383974, "required_final_county_share_points": 52.404345000859564, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.003259695682198218, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.9999999999999996, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": 1.2353840919292338, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "ABOVE", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.004477080652391851, "criticality_score": 0.0036240394235611626, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -442.64155032537974, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -14.495957746440205, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 209.30333005889648, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Haley Stevens": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 44.689655617645144, "expected_final_county_share_points": 44.35293990686453, "current_county_share_points": 42.30343300110742, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 45.92503970957438, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 45.92503970957438, "required_final_county_share_points": 45.41400110464378, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 45.92503970957438, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 464.74733529721715, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 45.92503970957438, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 45.92503970957438, "required_final_county_share_points": 45.41400110464378, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 45.92503970957438, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 46.58346395490396, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 46.58346395490396, "required_final_county_share_points": 45.97951625330114, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.07865391656842785, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.999999999999999, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 47.24294247049858, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 47.24294247049858, "required_final_county_share_points": 46.54593690598556, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.10597932088248406, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -1.2353840919292338, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.004477080652391851, "criticality_score": 0.0036240394235611626, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 539.2608423021536, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 967.4064348810931, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1191.20572268643, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Mallory McMorrow": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 3.3807080232260818, "expected_final_county_share_points": 3.3099539772464976, "current_county_share_points": 2.8792912513842746, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 32.759951700275636, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 32.759951700275636, "required_final_county_share_points": 28.54354382956283, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 32.759951700275636, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 10117.136594525324, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 32.759951700275636, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 32.759951700275636, "required_final_county_share_points": 28.54354382956283, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 32.759951700275636, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 33.47427160480194, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 33.47427160480194, "required_final_county_share_points": 29.157067298454685, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.159018308558073, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999906, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 34.191469734079504, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 34.191469734079504, "required_final_county_share_points": 29.77306285082406, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.213613509684069, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.999999999999993, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -29.379243677049555, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "WELL BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.004477080652391851, "criticality_score": 0.00015238924124820995, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 497.9518947077346, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 926.0974872866741, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1149.8967750920108, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } } } }, { "cid": "26089", "county": "26089", "fips": null, "reporting": 0.0, "current_votes": 0, "current_candidate_votes": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 0, "Haley Stevens": 0, "Mallory McMorrow": 0 }, "current_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": null, "Haley Stevens": null, "Mallory McMorrow": null }, "estimated_remaining_votes": 5496.342097041341, "estimated_final_votes": 5496.342097041341, "turnout_disagreement_votes": 0.0, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 49.77721291445259, "Haley Stevens": 46.404587803541965, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.8181992820054464 }, "remaining_sources": [ { "model": "market", "remaining_votes": 5496.342097041341, "weight": 0.1780093144963334 } ], "share_sources": [ { "model": "v0", "weight": 0.03630604611298715, "source": "statewide raw" }, { "model": "v3", "weight": 0.06301781787712588, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "market", "weight": 0.18729675699179427, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "histgeo", "weight": 0.02760802595386354, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "latent", "weight": 0.03563066882913146, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "batchbias", "weight": 0.020512372723621893, "source": "statewide fallback" } ], "candidate_benchmarks": { "Abdul El-Sayed": { "opponent": "Haley Stevens", "expected_remaining_share_points": 49.77721291445259, "expected_final_county_share_points": 49.7772129144526, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.54326417857347, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.54326417857347, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.54326417857347, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 48.54326417857347, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": -370.2804667651199, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": false }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.54326417857347, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.54326417857347, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.54326417857347, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 48.54326417857347, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 49.19955155345625, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 49.19955155345625, "required_final_county_share_points": 49.19955155345625, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.024044322225107804, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999973, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 49.85549284741266, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 49.85549284741266, "required_final_county_share_points": 49.85549284741266, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.003259695682198218, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.9999999999999996, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": 1.2339487358791175, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "ABOVE", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.004477080652391851, "criticality_score": 0.0036282549851653187, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -444.7939737700559, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -16.648381191116385, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 207.15090661422028, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Haley Stevens": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 46.404587803541965, "expected_final_county_share_points": 46.404587803541965, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 47.638536539421075, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 47.638536539421075, "required_final_county_share_points": 47.63853653942107, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 47.638536539421075, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 466.46226748311454, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 47.638536539421075, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 47.638536539421075, "required_final_county_share_points": 47.63853653942107, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 47.638536539421075, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.29516375532679, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.29516375532679, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.29516375532678, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.07865391656842785, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.999999999999999, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.95212454755546, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.95212454755546, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.95212454755546, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.10597932088248406, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -1.2339487358791104, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.004477080652391851, "criticality_score": 0.0036282549851653395, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 540.9757744880504, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 969.1213670669899, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1192.9206548723266, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Mallory McMorrow": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 3.8181992820054464, "expected_final_county_share_points": 3.818199282005447, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 33.83082315675397, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 33.83082315675397, "required_final_county_share_points": 33.83082315675397, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 33.83082315675397, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 10117.574085784105, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 33.83082315675397, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 33.83082315675397, "required_final_county_share_points": 33.83082315675397, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 33.83082315675397, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 34.49666511029526, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 34.49666511029526, "required_final_county_share_points": 34.49666511029526, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.159018308558073, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999906, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 35.16241197253432, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 35.16241197253432, "required_final_county_share_points": 35.16241197253432, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.213613509684069, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.999999999999993, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -30.012623874748527, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "WELL BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.004477080652391851, "criticality_score": 0.00014917325026548897, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 498.38938596651394, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 926.5349785454534, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1150.3342663507901, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } } } }, { "cid": "name:gd_traverse", "county": "name:gd_traverse", "fips": null, "reporting": 0.0, "current_votes": 0, "current_candidate_votes": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 0, "Haley Stevens": 0, "Mallory McMorrow": 0 }, "current_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": null, "Haley Stevens": null, "Mallory McMorrow": null }, "estimated_remaining_votes": 5156.92134952329, "estimated_final_votes": 5156.92134952329, "turnout_disagreement_votes": 0.0, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 49.53409718759454, "Haley Stevens": 46.64825171952558, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.817651092879882 }, "remaining_sources": [ { "model": "v3", "remaining_votes": 5156.92134952329, "weight": 0.1342208488636769 }, { "model": "histgeo", "remaining_votes": 5156.92134952329, "weight": 0.05994207394479305 }, { "model": "latent", "remaining_votes": 5156.92134952329, "weight": 0.07672787409296966 } ], "share_sources": [ { "model": "v0", "weight": 0.03630604611298715, "source": "statewide raw" }, { "model": "v3", "weight": 0.15004242351696637, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "market", "weight": 0.0786646379365536, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "histgeo", "weight": 0.06573339512824654, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "latent", "weight": 0.08483492578364633, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "batchbias", "weight": 0.020512372723621893, "source": "statewide fallback" } ], "candidate_benchmarks": { "Abdul El-Sayed": { "opponent": "Haley Stevens", "expected_remaining_share_points": 49.53409718759454, "expected_final_county_share_points": 49.53409718759453, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.299895018238345, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.299895018238345, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.299895018238345, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 48.299895018238345, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": -398.17114233904005, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": false }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.299895018238345, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.299895018238345, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.299895018238345, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 48.299895018238345, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.95627723054584, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.95627723054584, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.95627723054583, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.024044322225107804, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999973, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 49.61240402426675, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 49.61240402426675, "required_final_county_share_points": 49.61240402426675, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.003259695682198218, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.9999999999999996, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": 1.2342021693561946, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "ABOVE", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.0042006033089325625, "criticality_score": 0.0034034969417723127, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -477.5890154441389, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -21.263528848949505, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 217.26588889484682, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Haley Stevens": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 46.64825171952558, "expected_final_county_share_points": 46.648251719525575, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 47.88245388888177, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 47.88245388888177, "required_final_county_share_points": 47.88245388888177, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 47.88245388888177, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 494.3534912461601, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 47.88245388888177, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 47.88245388888177, "required_final_county_share_points": 47.88245388888177, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 47.88245388888177, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.53908515549113, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.53908515549113, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.53908515549112, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.07865391656842785, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.999999999999999, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 49.195959090759175, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 49.195959090759175, "required_final_county_share_points": 49.195959090759175, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.10597932088248406, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -1.2342021693561875, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.0042006033089325625, "criticality_score": 0.003403496941772332, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 573.771364351259, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1030.0968509464483, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1268.6262686902448, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Mallory McMorrow": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 3.817651092879882, "expected_final_county_share_points": 3.8176510928798817, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 33.736001006196595, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 33.736001006196595, "required_final_county_share_points": 33.736001006196595, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 33.736001006196595, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 10783.245621876225, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 33.736001006196595, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 33.736001006196595, "required_final_county_share_points": 33.736001006196595, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 33.736001006196595, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 34.397947057536555, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 34.397947057536555, "required_final_county_share_points": 34.397947057536555, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.159018308558073, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999906, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 35.059720483369155, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 35.059720483369155, "required_final_county_share_points": 35.059720483369155, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.213613509684069, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.999999999999993, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -29.918349913316714, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "WELL BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.0042006033089325625, "criticality_score": 0.00014040223879669466, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 530.9407637246132, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 987.2662503198026, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1225.7956680635991, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } } } }, { "cid": "fips:26093", "county": "Livingston", "fips": "26093", "reporting": 80.73, "current_votes": 21490, "current_candidate_votes": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 10902, "Haley Stevens": 9766, "Mallory McMorrow": 822 }, "current_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 50.73057235923686, "Haley Stevens": 45.44439274080968, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.825034899953467 }, "estimated_remaining_votes": 5033.181154902108, "estimated_final_votes": 26523.181154902108, "turnout_disagreement_votes": 0.0, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 50.37111830190255, "Haley Stevens": 45.82128265732378, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.8075990407736717 }, "remaining_sources": [ { "model": "v3", "remaining_votes": 5033.181154902108, "weight": 0.1342208488636769 }, { "model": "histgeo", "remaining_votes": 5033.181154902108, "weight": 0.05994207394479305 }, { "model": "latent", "remaining_votes": 5033.181154902108, "weight": 0.07672787409296966 }, { "model": "batchbias", "remaining_votes": 5033.181154902108, "weight": 0.045123489075924846 } ], "share_sources": [ { "model": "v0", "weight": 0.03630604611298715, "source": "statewide raw" }, { "model": "v1", "weight": 0.14599140026529184, "source": "county live" }, { "model": "v3", "weight": 0.15004242351696637, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "market", "weight": 0.0786646379365536, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "histgeo", "weight": 0.06573339512824654, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "latent", "weight": 0.08483492578364633, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "batchbias", "weight": 0.04883898267529022, "source": "county remaining" } ], "candidate_benchmarks": { "Abdul El-Sayed": { "opponent": "Haley Stevens", "expected_remaining_share_points": 50.37111830190255, "expected_final_county_share_points": 50.66236042881788, "current_county_share_points": 50.73057235923686, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 49.137891042489976, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 49.137891042489976, "required_final_county_share_points": 50.42833660771075, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 49.137891042489976, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": -408.34090436385964, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": false }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 49.137891042489976, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 49.137891042489976, "required_final_county_share_points": 50.42833660771075, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 49.137891042489976, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 49.79389121493866, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 49.79389121493866, "required_final_county_share_points": 50.55282271992699, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.024044322225107804, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999973, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 50.44932631704384, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 50.44932631704384, "required_final_county_share_points": 50.67720160136322, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.003259695682198218, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.9999999999999996, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": 1.2332272594125726, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "ABOVE", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.0040998099410015695, "criticality_score": 0.0033244561452156402, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -489.71125697883093, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -22.1670594364111, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 222.22657731045996, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Haley Stevens": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 45.82128265732378, "expected_final_county_share_points": 45.51591339341137, "current_county_share_points": 45.44439274080968, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 47.05450991673635, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 47.05450991673635, "required_final_county_share_points": 45.749937214518496, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 47.05450991673635, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 504.5333053230859, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 47.05450991673635, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 47.05450991673635, "required_final_county_share_points": 45.749937214518496, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 47.05450991673635, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 47.711069376303136, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 47.711069376303136, "required_final_county_share_points": 45.87452946005891, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.07865391656842785, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.999999999999999, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.368182307201266, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.368182307201266, "required_final_county_share_points": 45.999226735288566, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.10597932088248406, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -1.2332272594125726, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.0040998099410015695, "criticality_score": 0.0033244561452156402, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 585.9036579380572, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1053.447855480477, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1297.841492227348, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Mallory McMorrow": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 3.8075990407736717, "expected_final_county_share_points": 3.8217261777707567, "current_county_share_points": 3.825034899953467, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 34.01402356046048, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 34.01402356046048, "required_final_county_share_points": 9.553859354464047, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 34.01402356046048, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 11048.246598427895, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 34.01402356046048, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 34.01402356046048, "required_final_county_share_points": 9.553859354464047, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 34.01402356046048, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 34.6897929092323, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 34.6897929092323, "required_final_county_share_points": 9.682096971642563, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.159018308558073, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999906, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 35.36571208511669, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 35.36571208511669, "required_final_county_share_points": 9.810363020817796, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.213613509684069, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.999999999999993, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -30.20642451968681, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "WELL BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.0040998099410015695, "criticality_score": 0.0001357264226465979, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 543.8899743215071, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1011.4341718639268, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1255.827808610798, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } } } }, { "cid": "26093", "county": "26093", "fips": null, "reporting": 0.0, "current_votes": 0, "current_candidate_votes": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 0, "Haley Stevens": 0, "Mallory McMorrow": 0 }, "current_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": null, "Haley Stevens": null, "Mallory McMorrow": null }, "estimated_remaining_votes": 5033.181154902108, "estimated_final_votes": 5033.181154902108, "turnout_disagreement_votes": 0.0, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 49.89261988260084, "Haley Stevens": 46.35073676032594, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.7566433570732234 }, "remaining_sources": [ { "model": "market", "remaining_votes": 5033.181154902108, "weight": 0.1780093144963334 } ], "share_sources": [ { "model": "v0", "weight": 0.03630604611298715, "source": "statewide raw" }, { "model": "v3", "weight": 0.06301781787712588, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "market", "weight": 0.18729675699179427, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "histgeo", "weight": 0.02760802595386354, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "latent", "weight": 0.03563066882913146, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "batchbias", "weight": 0.020512372723621893, "source": "statewide fallback" } ], "candidate_benchmarks": { "Abdul El-Sayed": { "opponent": "Haley Stevens", "expected_remaining_share_points": 49.89261988260084, "expected_final_county_share_points": 49.89261988260085, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.65798061049089, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.65798061049089, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.65798061049089, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 48.65798061049089, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": -408.81940278316034, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": false }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.65798061049089, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.65798061049089, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.65798061049089, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 48.65798061049089, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 49.314648965464855, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 49.314648965464855, "required_final_county_share_points": 49.314648965464855, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.024044322225107804, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999973, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 49.97093990702525, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 49.97093990702525, "required_final_county_share_points": 49.97093990702525, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.003259695682198218, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.9999999999999996, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": 1.234639272109952, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "ABOVE", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.0040998099410015695, "criticality_score": 0.003320654083840334, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -490.1897553981326, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -22.64555785571281, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 221.74807889115823, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Haley Stevens": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 46.35073676032594, "expected_final_county_share_points": 46.350736760325944, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 47.5853760324359, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 47.5853760324359, "required_final_county_share_points": 47.585376032435896, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 47.5853760324359, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 505.0627594260872, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 47.5853760324359, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 47.5853760324359, "required_final_county_share_points": 47.585376032435896, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 47.5853760324359, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.24241560836144, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.24241560836144, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.24241560836144, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.07865391656842785, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.999999999999999, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.89982018680944, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.89982018680944, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.89982018680944, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.10597932088248406, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -1.2346392721099662, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.0040998099410015695, "criticality_score": 0.003320654083840296, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 586.4331120410594, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1053.9773095834792, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1298.37094633035, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Mallory McMorrow": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 3.7566433570732234, "expected_final_county_share_points": 3.7566433570732234, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 33.63235898498036, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 33.63235898498036, "required_final_county_share_points": 33.63235898498036, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 33.63235898498036, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 11048.195642744196, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 33.63235898498036, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 33.63235898498036, "required_final_county_share_points": 33.63235898498036, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 33.63235898498036, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 34.302227148997034, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 34.302227148997034, "required_final_county_share_points": 34.302227148997034, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.159018308558073, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999906, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 34.9723095336476, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 34.9723095336476, "required_final_county_share_points": 34.9723095336476, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.213613509684069, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.999999999999993, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -29.875715627907134, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "WELL BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.0040998099410015695, "criticality_score": 0.0001372288447267153, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 543.8390186378067, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1011.3832161802264, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1255.7768529270975, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } } } }, { "cid": "fips:26155", "county": "Shiawassee", "fips": "26155", "reporting": 44.43, "current_votes": 3588, "current_candidate_votes": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 1423, "Haley Stevens": 1922, "Mallory McMorrow": 243 }, "current_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 39.659977703455965, "Haley Stevens": 53.567447045707915, "Mallory McMorrow": 6.77257525083612 }, "estimated_remaining_votes": 4949.64208510183, "estimated_final_votes": 8537.64208510183, "turnout_disagreement_votes": 0.0, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 43.429889037955434, "Haley Stevens": 50.95457332924801, "Mallory McMorrow": 5.61553763279655 }, "remaining_sources": [ { "model": "v3", "remaining_votes": 4949.64208510183, "weight": 0.1342208488636769 }, { "model": "histgeo", "remaining_votes": 4949.64208510183, "weight": 0.05994207394479305 }, { "model": "latent", "remaining_votes": 4949.64208510183, "weight": 0.07672787409296966 }, { "model": "batchbias", "remaining_votes": 4949.64208510183, "weight": 0.045123489075924846 } ], "share_sources": [ { "model": "v0", "weight": 0.03630604611298715, "source": "statewide raw" }, { "model": "v1", "weight": 0.14599140026529184, "source": "county live" }, { "model": "v3", "weight": 0.15004242351696637, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "market", "weight": 0.0786646379365536, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "histgeo", "weight": 0.06573339512824654, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "latent", "weight": 0.08483492578364633, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "batchbias", "weight": 0.04883898267529022, "source": "county remaining" } ], "candidate_benchmarks": { "Abdul El-Sayed": { "opponent": "Haley Stevens", "expected_remaining_share_points": 43.429889037955434, "expected_final_county_share_points": 41.84555911016568, "current_county_share_points": 39.659977703455965, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 42.22875609709287, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 42.22875609709287, "required_final_county_share_points": 41.14921015402125, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 42.22875609709287, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": -423.0241834610745, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": false }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 42.22875609709287, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 42.22875609709287, "required_final_county_share_points": 41.14921015402125, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 42.22875609709287, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 42.866709368289044, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 42.866709368289044, "required_final_county_share_points": 41.519059384987614, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.024044322225107804, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999973, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 43.506326188737916, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 43.506326188737916, "required_final_county_share_points": 41.889873047738504, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.003259695682198218, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.9999999999999996, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": 1.2011329408625642, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "ABOVE", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.004031762656731734, "criticality_score": 0.0033566331582217885, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -505.76788862354414, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -30.33257356562264, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 218.1858901339675, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Haley Stevens": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 50.95457332924801, "expected_final_county_share_points": 52.05265062051997, "current_county_share_points": 53.567447045707915, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 52.15570627011058, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 52.15570627011058, "required_final_county_share_points": 52.74899957666441, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 52.15570627011058, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 517.4086458282779, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 52.15570627011058, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 52.15570627011058, "required_final_county_share_points": 52.74899957666441, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 52.15570627011058, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 52.791996171337395, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 52.791996171337395, "required_final_county_share_points": 53.11788447978459, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.07865391656842785, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.999999999999999, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 53.42662290267446, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 53.42662290267446, "required_final_county_share_points": 53.48580517105342, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.10597932088248406, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -1.2011329408625713, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.004031762656731734, "criticality_score": 0.003356633158221769, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 600.1523509907475, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1075.587666048669, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1324.1061297482593, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Mallory McMorrow": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 5.61553763279655, "expected_final_county_share_points": 6.101790269314338, "current_county_share_points": 6.77257525083612, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 36.42227747418374, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 36.42227747418374, "required_final_county_share_points": 23.96179593642876, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 36.42227747418374, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 11236.460370939063, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 36.42227747418374, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 36.42227747418374, "required_final_county_share_points": 23.96179593642876, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 36.42227747418374, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 36.91962544996733, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 36.91962544996733, "required_final_county_share_points": 24.25013016821558, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.159018308558073, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999906, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 37.41105938436123, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 37.41105938436123, "required_final_county_share_points": 24.53503577323829, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.213613509684069, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.999999999999993, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -30.806739841387188, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "WELL BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.004031762656731734, "criticality_score": 0.00013087274659668072, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 554.8133152942961, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1030.2486303522176, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1278.7670940518078, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } } } }, { "cid": "26155", "county": "26155", "fips": null, "reporting": 0.0, "current_votes": 0, "current_candidate_votes": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 0, "Haley Stevens": 0, "Mallory McMorrow": 0 }, "current_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": null, "Haley Stevens": null, "Mallory McMorrow": null }, "estimated_remaining_votes": 4949.64208510183, "estimated_final_votes": 4949.64208510183, "turnout_disagreement_votes": 0.0, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 45.55019957020254, "Haley Stevens": 49.57893414963119, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.870866280166271 }, "remaining_sources": [ { "model": "market", "remaining_votes": 4949.64208510183, "weight": 0.1780093144963334 } ], "share_sources": [ { "model": "v0", "weight": 0.03630604611298715, "source": "statewide raw" }, { "model": "v3", "weight": 0.06301781787712588, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "market", "weight": 0.18729675699179427, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "histgeo", "weight": 0.02760802595386354, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "latent", "weight": 0.03563066882913146, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "batchbias", "weight": 0.020512372723621893, "source": "statewide fallback" } ], "candidate_benchmarks": { "Abdul El-Sayed": { "opponent": "Haley Stevens", "expected_remaining_share_points": 45.55019957020254, "expected_final_county_share_points": 45.55019957020254, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 44.33286605644045, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 44.33286605644045, "required_final_county_share_points": 44.332866056440444, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 44.33286605644045, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": -420.90387292882684, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": false }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 44.33286605644045, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 44.33286605644045, "required_final_county_share_points": 44.332866056440444, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 44.33286605644045, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 44.97971422163487, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 44.97971422163487, "required_final_county_share_points": 44.97971422163488, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.024044322225107804, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999973, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 45.62758880968153, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 45.62758880968153, "required_final_county_share_points": 45.62758880968153, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.003259695682198218, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.9999999999999996, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": 1.2173335137620853, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "ABOVE", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.004031762656731734, "criticality_score": 0.0033119622610831186, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -503.647578091297, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -28.212263033375535, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 220.30620066621458, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Haley Stevens": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 49.57893414963119, "expected_final_county_share_points": 49.57893414963119, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 50.79626766339326, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 50.79626766339326, "required_final_county_share_points": 50.79626766339326, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 50.79626766339326, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 516.0330066486606, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 50.79626766339326, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 50.79626766339326, "required_final_county_share_points": 50.79626766339326, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 50.79626766339326, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 51.44208544315815, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 51.44208544315815, "required_final_county_share_points": 51.44208544315815, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.07865391656842785, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.999999999999999, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 52.08686889657379, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 52.08686889657379, "required_final_county_share_points": 52.08686889657379, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.10597932088248406, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -1.217333513762071, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.004031762656731734, "criticality_score": 0.003311962261083157, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 598.7767118111308, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1074.2120268690521, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1322.7304905686424, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Mallory McMorrow": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 4.870866280166271, "expected_final_county_share_points": 4.870866280166271, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 35.531045222648785, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 35.531045222648785, "required_final_county_share_points": 35.531045222648785, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 35.531045222648785, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 11235.715699586435, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 35.531045222648785, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 35.531045222648785, "required_final_county_share_points": 35.531045222648785, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 35.531045222648785, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 36.08886038573337, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 36.08886038573337, "required_final_county_share_points": 36.08886038573337, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.159018308558073, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999906, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 36.642256909740425, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 36.642256909740425, "required_final_county_share_points": 36.642256909740425, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.213613509684069, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.999999999999993, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -30.660178942482514, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "WELL BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.004031762656731734, "criticality_score": 0.00013149834070750818, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 554.0686439416659, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1029.5039589995872, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1278.0224226991775, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } } } }, { "cid": "26101", "county": "26101", "fips": null, "reporting": 0.0, "current_votes": 0, "current_candidate_votes": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 0, "Haley Stevens": 0, "Mallory McMorrow": 0 }, "current_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": null, "Haley Stevens": null, "Mallory McMorrow": null }, "estimated_remaining_votes": 3791.242696224088, "estimated_final_votes": 3791.242696224088, "turnout_disagreement_votes": 0.0, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 48.27100217759222, "Haley Stevens": 47.573041127080906, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.155956695326873 }, "remaining_sources": [ { "model": "market", "remaining_votes": 3791.242696224088, "weight": 0.1780093144963334 } ], "share_sources": [ { "model": "v0", "weight": 0.03630604611298715, "source": "statewide raw" }, { "model": "v3", "weight": 0.06301781787712588, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "market", "weight": 0.18729675699179427, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "histgeo", "weight": 0.02760802595386354, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "latent", "weight": 0.03563066882913146, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "batchbias", "weight": 0.020512372723621893, "source": "statewide fallback" } ], "candidate_benchmarks": { "Abdul El-Sayed": { "opponent": "Haley Stevens", "expected_remaining_share_points": 48.27100217759222, "expected_final_county_share_points": 48.27100217759222, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 47.04081622790371, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 47.04081622790371, "required_final_county_share_points": 47.04081622790371, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 47.04081622790371, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": -560.7062891753956, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": false }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 47.04081622790371, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 47.04081622790371, "required_final_county_share_points": 47.04081622790371, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 47.04081622790371, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 47.694883782522766, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 47.694883782522766, "required_final_county_share_points": 47.694883782522766, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.024044322225107804, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999973, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.34910264295541, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.34910264295541, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.34910264295541, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.003259695682198218, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.9999999999999996, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": 1.2301859496885115, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "ABOVE", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.0030881810164115615, "criticality_score": 0.002510336764286328, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -668.7320100708972, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -48.029292595686556, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 276.42301642621965, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Haley Stevens": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 47.573041127080906, "expected_final_county_share_points": 47.573041127080906, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.8032270767694, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.8032270767694, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.8032270767694, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 48.8032270767694, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 656.5503324800687, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.8032270767694, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.8032270767694, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.8032270767694, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 48.8032270767694, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 49.45713689360831, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 49.45713689360831, "required_final_county_share_points": 49.45713689360831, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.07865391656842785, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.999999999999999, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 50.11088253540306, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 50.11088253540306, "required_final_county_share_points": 50.11088253540306, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.10597932088248406, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -1.2301859496884973, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.0030881810164115615, "criticality_score": 0.002510336764286357, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 764.5760533755704, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1385.2787708507808, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1709.7310798726871, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Mallory McMorrow": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 4.155956695326873, "expected_final_county_share_points": 4.155956695326873, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 34.480137780876035, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 34.480137780876035, "required_final_county_share_points": 34.480137780876035, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 34.480137780876035, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 14666.54153637479, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 34.480137780876035, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 34.480137780876035, "required_final_county_share_points": 34.480137780876035, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 34.480137780876035, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 35.10919125118339, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 35.10919125118339, "required_final_county_share_points": 35.10919125118339, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.159018308558073, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999906, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 35.73638403953086, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 35.73638403953086, "required_final_county_share_points": 35.73638403953086, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.213613509684069, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.999999999999993, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -30.324181085549164, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "WELL BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.0030881810164115615, "criticality_score": 0.00010183889245679313, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 721.1589689438163, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1341.861686419027, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1666.3139954409332, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } } } }, { "cid": "fips:26101", "county": "Manistee", "fips": "26101", "reporting": 0.0, "current_votes": 0, "current_candidate_votes": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 0, "Haley Stevens": 0, "Mallory McMorrow": 0 }, "current_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": null, "Haley Stevens": null, "Mallory McMorrow": null }, "estimated_remaining_votes": 3791.2426962240875, "estimated_final_votes": 3791.2426962240875, "turnout_disagreement_votes": 4.547473508864641e-13, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 49.28451540697091, "Haley Stevens": 46.86106919090173, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.854415402127373 }, "remaining_sources": [ { "model": "v3", "remaining_votes": 3791.242696224088, "weight": 0.1342208488636769 }, { "model": "histgeo", "remaining_votes": 3791.242696224088, "weight": 0.05994207394479305 }, { "model": "latent", "remaining_votes": 3791.242696224088, "weight": 0.07672787409296966 }, { "model": "batchbias", "remaining_votes": 3791.242696224088, "weight": 0.045123489075924846 } ], "share_sources": [ { "model": "v0", "weight": 0.03630604611298715, "source": "statewide raw" }, { "model": "v3", "weight": 0.15004242351696637, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "market", "weight": 0.0786646379365536, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "histgeo", "weight": 0.06573339512824654, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "latent", "weight": 0.08483492578364633, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "batchbias", "weight": 0.04883898267529022, "source": "county remaining" } ], "candidate_benchmarks": { "Abdul El-Sayed": { "opponent": "Haley Stevens", "expected_remaining_share_points": 49.28451540697091, "expected_final_county_share_points": 49.284515406970904, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.05060996504737, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.05060996504737, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.05060996504737, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 48.05060996504737, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": -559.6927759460161, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": false }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.05060996504737, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.05060996504737, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.05060996504737, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 48.05060996504737, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.70679650829938, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.70679650829938, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.70679650829938, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.024044322225107804, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999973, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 49.36281367778406, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 49.36281367778406, "required_final_county_share_points": 49.36281367778406, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.003259695682198218, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.9999999999999996, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": 1.2339054419235396, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "ABOVE", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.003088181016411561, "criticality_score": 0.002502769589537902, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -667.7184968415186, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -47.01577936630788, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 277.4365296555984, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Haley Stevens": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 46.86106919090173, "expected_final_county_share_points": 46.86106919090173, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.09497463282526, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.09497463282526, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.09497463282526, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 48.09497463282526, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 655.8383605438887, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.09497463282526, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.09497463282526, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.09497463282526, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 48.09497463282526, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.75132410521113, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.75132410521113, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.75132410521113, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.07865391656842785, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.999999999999999, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 49.407830044085294, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 49.407830044085294, "required_final_county_share_points": 49.407830044085294, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.10597932088248406, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -1.2339054419235325, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.003088181016411561, "criticality_score": 0.002502769589537917, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 763.8640814393913, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1384.5667989146018, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1709.0191079365081, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Mallory McMorrow": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 3.854415402127373, "expected_final_county_share_points": 3.854415402127373, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 33.78188463454098, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 33.78188463454098, "required_final_county_share_points": 33.78188463454098, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 33.78188463454098, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 14666.23999508159, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 33.78188463454098, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 33.78188463454098, "required_final_county_share_points": 33.78188463454098, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 33.78188463454098, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 34.43848971931931, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 34.43848971931931, "required_final_county_share_points": 34.43848971931931, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.159018308558073, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999906, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 35.09468575846744, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 35.09468575846744, "required_final_county_share_points": 35.09468575846744, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.213613509684069, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.999999999999993, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -29.927469232413607, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "WELL BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.003088181016411561, "criticality_score": 0.00010318884608748802, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 720.857427650617, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1341.5601451258276, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1666.012454147734, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } } } }, { "cid": "fips:26061", "county": "Houghton", "fips": "26061", "reporting": 25.489999999999995, "current_votes": 1059, "current_candidate_votes": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 530, "Haley Stevens": 459, "Mallory McMorrow": 70 }, "current_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 50.04721435316336, "Haley Stevens": 43.342776203966004, "Mallory McMorrow": 6.610009442870633 }, "estimated_remaining_votes": 3345.74264210606, "estimated_final_votes": 4404.74264210606, "turnout_disagreement_votes": 0.0, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 49.7863310825937, "Haley Stevens": 44.92337401998788, "Mallory McMorrow": 5.290294897418427 }, "remaining_sources": [ { "model": "v3", "remaining_votes": 3345.74264210606, "weight": 0.1342208488636769 }, { "model": "histgeo", "remaining_votes": 3345.74264210606, "weight": 0.05994207394479305 }, { "model": "latent", "remaining_votes": 3345.74264210606, "weight": 0.07672787409296966 }, { "model": "batchbias", "remaining_votes": 3345.74264210606, "weight": 0.045123489075924846 } ], "share_sources": [ { "model": "v0", "weight": 0.03630604611298715, "source": "statewide raw" }, { "model": "v1", "weight": 0.14599140026529184, "source": "county live" }, { "model": "v3", "weight": 0.15004242351696637, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "market", "weight": 0.0786646379365536, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "histgeo", "weight": 0.06573339512824654, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "latent", "weight": 0.08483492578364633, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "batchbias", "weight": 0.04883898267529022, "source": "county remaining" } ], "candidate_benchmarks": { "Abdul El-Sayed": { "opponent": "Haley Stevens", "expected_remaining_share_points": 49.7863310825937, "expected_final_county_share_points": 49.84905333585142, "current_county_share_points": 50.04721435316336, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.57247215638126, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.57247215638126, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.92703361735359, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 48.57247215638126, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": -640.2789115192775, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": false }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.57247215638126, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.57247215638126, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.92703361735359, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 48.57247215638126, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 49.21820101094869, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 49.21820101094869, "required_final_county_share_points": 49.41751461465689, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.024044322225107804, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999973, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 49.86330229641139, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 49.86330229641139, "required_final_county_share_points": 49.90751892469712, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.003259695682198218, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.9999999999999996, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": 1.2138589262124384, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "ABOVE", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.002725296094455012, "criticality_score": 0.0022451505983143018, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -762.6887227806749, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -59.33676302771722, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 308.3177694434474, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Haley Stevens": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 44.92337401998788, "expected_final_county_share_points": 44.54336246808327, "current_county_share_points": 43.342776203966004, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 46.13723294620032, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 46.13723294620032, "required_final_county_share_points": 45.4653821865811, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 46.13723294620032, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 734.988616621859, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 46.13723294620032, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 46.13723294620032, "required_final_county_share_points": 45.4653821865811, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 46.13723294620032, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 46.78358387273388, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 46.78358387273388, "required_final_county_share_points": 45.95633569564561, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.07865391656842785, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.999999999999999, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 47.430551339733086, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 47.430551339733086, "required_final_county_share_points": 46.447757514869004, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.10597932088248406, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -1.2138589262124384, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.002725296094455012, "criticality_score": 0.0022451505983143018, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 857.3984278832565, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1560.750387636214, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1928.404920107379, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Mallory McMorrow": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 5.290294897418427, "expected_final_county_share_points": 5.607584196065318, "current_county_share_points": 6.610009442870633, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 38.73918689798017, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 38.73918689798017, "required_final_county_share_points": 31.014604172145237, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 38.73918689798017, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 16620.035714524045, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 38.73918689798017, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 38.73918689798017, "required_final_county_share_points": 31.014604172145237, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 38.73918689798017, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 39.350124183799515, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 39.350124183799515, "required_final_county_share_points": 31.47865828265758, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.159018308558073, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999906, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 39.956306617179415, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 39.956306617179415, "required_final_county_share_points": 31.939100715063805, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.213613509684069, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.999999999999993, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -33.44889200056174, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "WELL BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.002725296094455012, "criticality_score": 8.147642362590794e-05, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 817.7653487606871, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1521.1173085136445, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1888.7718409848094, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } } } }, { "cid": "26061", "county": "26061", "fips": null, "reporting": 0.0, "current_votes": 0, "current_candidate_votes": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 0, "Haley Stevens": 0, "Mallory McMorrow": 0 }, "current_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": null, "Haley Stevens": null, "Mallory McMorrow": null }, "estimated_remaining_votes": 3345.74264210606, "estimated_final_votes": 3345.74264210606, "turnout_disagreement_votes": 0.0, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 49.31246004324791, "Haley Stevens": 45.65098547155028, "Mallory McMorrow": 5.0365544852018145 }, "remaining_sources": [ { "model": "market", "remaining_votes": 3345.74264210606, "weight": 0.1780093144963334 } ], "share_sources": [ { "model": "v0", "weight": 0.03630604611298715, "source": "statewide raw" }, { "model": "v3", "weight": 0.06301781787712588, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "market", "weight": 0.18729675699179427, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "histgeo", "weight": 0.02760802595386354, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "latent", "weight": 0.03563066882913146, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "batchbias", "weight": 0.020512372723621893, "source": "statewide fallback" } ], "candidate_benchmarks": { "Abdul El-Sayed": { "opponent": "Haley Stevens", "expected_remaining_share_points": 49.31246004324791, "expected_final_county_share_points": 49.31246004324791, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.09434629369606, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.09434629369606, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.09434629369606, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 48.09434629369606, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": -640.7527825586218, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": false }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.09434629369606, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.09434629369606, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.09434629369606, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 48.09434629369606, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.74223888666137, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.74223888666137, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.74223888666137, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.024044322225107804, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999973, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 49.38972805622101, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 49.38972805622101, "required_final_county_share_points": 49.38972805622101, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.003259695682198218, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.9999999999999996, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": 1.218113749551847, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "ABOVE", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.002725296094455012, "criticality_score": 0.0022373083757224383, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -763.1625938200207, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -59.810634067063006, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 307.84389840410165, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Haley Stevens": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 45.65098547155028, "expected_final_county_share_points": 45.650985471550285, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 46.869099221102125, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 46.869099221102125, "required_final_county_share_points": 46.869099221102125, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 46.869099221102125, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 735.7162280734199, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 46.869099221102125, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 46.869099221102125, "required_final_county_share_points": 46.869099221102125, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 46.869099221102125, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 47.51738918315602, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 47.51738918315602, "required_final_county_share_points": 47.51738918315602, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.07865391656842785, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.999999999999999, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.16607043322308, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.16607043322308, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.166070433223084, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.10597932088248406, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -1.218113749551847, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.002725296094455012, "criticality_score": 0.0022373083757224383, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 858.1260393348189, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1561.4779990877764, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1929.1325315589413, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Mallory McMorrow": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 5.0365544852018145, "expected_final_county_share_points": 5.0365544852018145, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 37.774917004629025, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 37.774917004629025, "required_final_county_share_points": 37.774917004629025, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 37.774917004629025, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 16619.78197411183, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 37.774917004629025, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 37.774917004629025, "required_final_county_share_points": 37.774917004629025, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 37.774917004629025, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 38.387639024908296, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 38.387639024908296, "required_final_county_share_points": 38.38763902490829, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.159018308558073, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999906, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 38.99612888596587, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 38.99612888596587, "required_final_county_share_points": 38.99612888596587, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.213613509684069, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.999999999999993, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -32.73836251942721, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "WELL BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.002725296094455012, "criticality_score": 8.324472834699044e-05, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 817.5116083484704, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1520.863568101428, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1888.5181005725929, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } } } }, { "cid": "26009", "county": "26009", "fips": null, "reporting": 0.0, "current_votes": 0, "current_candidate_votes": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 0, "Haley Stevens": 0, "Mallory McMorrow": 0 }, "current_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": null, "Haley Stevens": null, "Mallory McMorrow": null }, "estimated_remaining_votes": 3308.801867612957, "estimated_final_votes": 3308.801867612957, "turnout_disagreement_votes": 0.0, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 48.27100217759222, "Haley Stevens": 47.573041127080906, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.155956695326873 }, "remaining_sources": [ { "model": "market", "remaining_votes": 3308.801867612957, "weight": 0.1780093144963334 } ], "share_sources": [ { "model": "v0", "weight": 0.03630604611298715, "source": "statewide raw" }, { "model": "v3", "weight": 0.06301781787712588, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "market", "weight": 0.18729675699179427, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "histgeo", "weight": 0.02760802595386354, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "latent", "weight": 0.03563066882913146, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "batchbias", "weight": 0.020512372723621893, "source": "statewide fallback" } ], "candidate_benchmarks": { "Abdul El-Sayed": { "opponent": "Haley Stevens", "expected_remaining_share_points": 48.27100217759222, "expected_final_county_share_points": 48.27100217759222, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 47.04081622790371, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 47.04081622790371, "required_final_county_share_points": 47.04081622790371, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 47.04081622790371, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": -649.498402091374, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": false }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 47.04081622790371, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 47.04081622790371, "required_final_county_share_points": 47.04081622790371, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 47.04081622790371, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 47.694883782522766, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 47.694883782522766, "required_final_county_share_points": 47.694883782522766, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.024044322225107804, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999973, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.34910264295541, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.34910264295541, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.3491026429554, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.003259695682198218, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.9999999999999996, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": 1.2301859496885115, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "ABOVE", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.00269520575003186, "criticality_score": 0.0021908929708669635, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -773.2748449658094, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -62.07038537330685, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 309.6887879070648, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Haley Stevens": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 47.573041127080906, "expected_final_county_share_points": 47.573041127080906, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.8032270767694, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.8032270767694, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.803227076769396, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 48.8032270767694, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 745.3424453960473, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.8032270767694, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.8032270767694, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.803227076769396, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 48.8032270767694, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 49.45713689360831, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 49.45713689360831, "required_final_county_share_points": 49.45713689360831, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.07865391656842785, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.999999999999999, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 50.11088253540306, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 50.11088253540306, "required_final_county_share_points": 50.11088253540306, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.10597932088248406, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -1.2301859496884973, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.00269520575003186, "criticality_score": 0.002190892970866989, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 869.1188882704826, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1580.3233478629847, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1952.0825211433566, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Mallory McMorrow": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 4.155956695326873, "expected_final_county_share_points": 4.155956695326873, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 34.480137780876035, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 34.480137780876035, "required_final_county_share_points": 34.480137780876035, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 34.480137780876035, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 16804.39497441688, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 34.480137780876035, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 34.480137780876035, "required_final_county_share_points": 34.480137780876035, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 34.480137780876035, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 35.10919125118339, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 35.10919125118339, "required_final_county_share_points": 35.10919125118339, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.159018308558073, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999906, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 35.73638403953086, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 35.73638403953086, "required_final_county_share_points": 35.73638403953086, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.213613509684069, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.999999999999993, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -30.324181085549164, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "WELL BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.00269520575003186, "criticality_score": 8.887975383171178e-05, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 825.7018038387284, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1536.9062634312309, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1908.6654367116028, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } } } }, { "cid": "fips:26009", "county": "Antrim", "fips": "26009", "reporting": 0.0, "current_votes": 0, "current_candidate_votes": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 0, "Haley Stevens": 0, "Mallory McMorrow": 0 }, "current_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": null, "Haley Stevens": null, "Mallory McMorrow": null }, "estimated_remaining_votes": 3308.801867612957, "estimated_final_votes": 3308.801867612957, "turnout_disagreement_votes": 0.0, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 49.37396011422278, "Haley Stevens": 46.785796448893414, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.8402434368838043 }, "remaining_sources": [ { "model": "v3", "remaining_votes": 3308.801867612957, "weight": 0.1342208488636769 }, { "model": "histgeo", "remaining_votes": 3308.801867612957, "weight": 0.05994207394479305 }, { "model": "latent", "remaining_votes": 3308.801867612957, "weight": 0.07672787409296966 }, { "model": "batchbias", "remaining_votes": 3308.801867612957, "weight": 0.045123489075924846 } ], "share_sources": [ { "model": "v0", "weight": 0.03630604611298715, "source": "statewide raw" }, { "model": "v3", "weight": 0.15004242351696637, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "market", "weight": 0.0786646379365536, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "histgeo", "weight": 0.06573339512824654, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "latent", "weight": 0.08483492578364633, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "batchbias", "weight": 0.04883898267529022, "source": "county remaining" } ], "candidate_benchmarks": { "Abdul El-Sayed": { "opponent": "Haley Stevens", "expected_remaining_share_points": 49.37396011422278, "expected_final_county_share_points": 49.37396011422278, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.13992863163865, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.13992863163865, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.13992863163864, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 48.13992863163865, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": -648.3954441547453, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": false }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.13992863163865, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.13992863163865, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.13992863163864, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 48.13992863163865, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.796195691789165, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.796195691789165, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.796195691789165, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.024044322225107804, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999973, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 49.45226272727665, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 49.45226272727665, "required_final_county_share_points": 49.45226272727665, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.003259695682198218, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.9999999999999996, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": 1.234031482584136, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "ABOVE", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.00269520575003186, "criticality_score": 0.002184065632092252, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -772.1718870291788, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -60.96742743667629, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 310.79174584369537, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Haley Stevens": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 46.785796448893414, "expected_final_county_share_points": 46.785796448893414, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.01982793147754, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.01982793147754, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.01982793147754, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 48.01982793147754, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 744.5552007178616, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.01982793147754, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.01982793147754, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.01982793147754, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 48.01982793147754, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.67628859629012, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.67628859629012, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.67628859629012, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.07865391656842785, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.999999999999999, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 49.332936426552436, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 49.332936426552436, "required_final_county_share_points": 49.332936426552436, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.10597932088248406, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -1.234031482584129, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.00269520575003186, "criticality_score": 0.0021840656320922646, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 868.331643592295, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1579.5361031847974, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1951.2952764651693, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Mallory McMorrow": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 3.8402434368838043, "expected_final_county_share_points": 3.840243436883804, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 33.7619486973838, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 33.7619486973838, "required_final_county_share_points": 33.7619486973838, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 33.7619486973838, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 16804.07926115844, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 33.7619486973838, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 33.7619486973838, "required_final_county_share_points": 33.7619486973838, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 33.7619486973838, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 34.42050589917526, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 34.42050589917526, "required_final_county_share_points": 34.42050589917526, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.159018308558073, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999906, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 35.07874229361935, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 35.07874229361935, "required_final_county_share_points": 35.07874229361935, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.213613509684069, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.999999999999993, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -29.921705260499998, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "WELL BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.00269520575003186, "criticality_score": 9.007527233382095e-05, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 825.3860905802854, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1536.5905501727877, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1908.3497234531596, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } } } }, { "cid": "26123", "county": "26123", "fips": null, "reporting": 0.0, "current_votes": 0, "current_candidate_votes": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 0, "Haley Stevens": 0, "Mallory McMorrow": 0 }, "current_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": null, "Haley Stevens": null, "Mallory McMorrow": null }, "estimated_remaining_votes": 3200.745116245081, "estimated_final_votes": 3200.745116245081, "turnout_disagreement_votes": 0.0, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 48.89969721340125, "Haley Stevens": 47.0326001428678, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.067702643730954 }, "remaining_sources": [ { "model": "market", "remaining_votes": 3200.745116245081, "weight": 0.1780093144963334 } ], "share_sources": [ { "model": "v0", "weight": 0.03630604611298715, "source": "statewide raw" }, { "model": "v3", "weight": 0.06301781787712588, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "market", "weight": 0.18729675699179427, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "histgeo", "weight": 0.02760802595386354, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "latent", "weight": 0.03563066882913146, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "batchbias", "weight": 0.020512372723621893, "source": "statewide fallback" } ], "candidate_benchmarks": { "Abdul El-Sayed": { "opponent": "Haley Stevens", "expected_remaining_share_points": 48.89969721340125, "expected_final_county_share_points": 48.89969721340125, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 47.66839461620564, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 47.66839461620564, "required_final_county_share_points": 47.66839461620564, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 47.66839461620564, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": -672.426314123878, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": false }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 47.66839461620564, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 47.66839461620564, "required_final_county_share_points": 47.66839461620564, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 47.66839461620564, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.323151754974845, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.323151754974845, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.323151754974845, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.024044322225107804, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999973, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.977842575966974, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.977842575966974, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.977842575966974, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.003259695682198218, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.9999999999999996, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": 1.231302597195608, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "ABOVE", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.0026071874312358283, "criticality_score": 0.002117422181333744, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -800.3814340960289, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -65.16680166225132, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 319.1429144126714, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Haley Stevens": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 47.0326001428678, "expected_final_county_share_points": 47.03260014286779, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.263902740063415, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.263902740063415, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.263902740063415, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 48.263902740063415, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 768.358611480147, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.263902740063415, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.263902740063415, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.263902740063415, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 48.263902740063415, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.91871971216041, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.91871971216041, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.91871971216041, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.07865391656842785, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.999999999999999, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 49.57359001921479, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 49.57359001921479, "required_final_county_share_points": 49.57359001921479, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.10597932088248406, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -1.231302597195615, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.0026071874312358283, "criticality_score": 0.0021174221813337313, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 896.3137314522979, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1631.5283638860753, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 2015.8380799609984, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Mallory McMorrow": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 4.067702643730954, "expected_final_county_share_points": 4.067702643730953, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 34.42310697630675, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 34.42310697630675, "required_final_county_share_points": 34.42310697630675, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 34.42310697630675, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 17371.480670344943, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 34.42310697630675, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 34.42310697630675, "required_final_county_share_points": 34.42310697630675, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 34.42310697630675, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 35.06567287040493, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 35.06567287040493, "required_final_county_share_points": 35.06567287040493, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.159018308558073, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999906, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 35.706869543417156, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 35.706869543417156, "required_final_county_share_points": 35.706869543417156, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.213613509684069, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.999999999999993, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -30.355404332575795, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "WELL BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.0026071874312358283, "criticality_score": 8.588874003031923e-05, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 853.3488339531611, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1588.5634663869384, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1972.8731824618615, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } } } }, { "cid": "fips:26123", "county": "Newaygo", "fips": "26123", "reporting": 11.7, "current_votes": 474, "current_candidate_votes": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 183, "Haley Stevens": 266, "Mallory McMorrow": 25 }, "current_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 38.607594936708864, "Haley Stevens": 56.118143459915615, "Mallory McMorrow": 5.274261603375527 }, "estimated_remaining_votes": 3200.745116245081, "estimated_final_votes": 3674.745116245081, "turnout_disagreement_votes": 0.0, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 44.644473190486266, "Haley Stevens": 50.88909420569647, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.466432603817268 }, "remaining_sources": [ { "model": "v3", "remaining_votes": 3200.745116245081, "weight": 0.1342208488636769 }, { "model": "histgeo", "remaining_votes": 3200.745116245081, "weight": 0.05994207394479305 }, { "model": "latent", "remaining_votes": 3200.745116245081, "weight": 0.07672787409296966 }, { "model": "batchbias", "remaining_votes": 3200.745116245081, "weight": 0.045123489075924846 } ], "share_sources": [ { "model": "v0", "weight": 0.03630604611298715, "source": "statewide raw" }, { "model": "v1", "weight": 0.14599140026529184, "source": "county live" }, { "model": "v3", "weight": 0.15004242351696637, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "market", "weight": 0.0786646379365536, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "histgeo", "weight": 0.06573339512824654, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "latent", "weight": 0.08483492578364633, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "batchbias", "weight": 0.04883898267529022, "source": "county remaining" } ], "candidate_benchmarks": { "Abdul El-Sayed": { "opponent": "Haley Stevens", "expected_remaining_share_points": 44.644473190486266, "expected_final_county_share_points": 43.86578509055774, "current_county_share_points": 38.607594936708864, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 43.42571969093881, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 43.42571969093881, "required_final_county_share_points": 42.804236823077055, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 43.42571969093881, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": -676.6815381467919, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": false }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 43.42571969093881, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 43.42571969093881, "required_final_county_share_points": 42.804236823077055, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 43.42571969093881, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 44.07314334632355, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 44.07314334632355, "required_final_county_share_points": 43.368150247698914, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.024044322225107804, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999973, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 44.72200133161808, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 44.72200133161808, "required_final_county_share_points": 43.933312990112526, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.003259695682198218, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.9999999999999996, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": 1.2187534995474536, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "ABOVE", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.0026071874312358283, "criticality_score": 0.0021392245701890716, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -804.636658118944, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -69.42202568516629, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 314.8876903897565, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Haley Stevens": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 50.88909420569647, "expected_final_county_share_points": 51.563581624032715, "current_county_share_points": 56.118143459915615, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 52.10784770524393, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 52.10784770524393, "required_final_county_share_points": 52.62512989151341, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 52.10784770524393, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 772.2151055429746, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 52.10784770524393, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 52.10784770524393, "required_final_county_share_points": 52.62512989151341, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 52.10784770524393, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 52.75383538188565, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 52.75383538188565, "required_final_county_share_points": 53.18779256219091, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.07865391656842785, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.999999999999999, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 53.39838545532275, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 53.39838545532275, "required_final_county_share_points": 53.74920306399932, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.10597932088248406, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -1.2187534995474536, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.0026071874312358283, "criticality_score": 0.0021392245701890716, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 900.1702255151266, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1635.384857948904, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 2019.694574023827, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Mallory McMorrow": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 4.466432603817268, "expected_final_county_share_points": 4.570633285409541, "current_county_share_points": 5.274261603375527, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 33.918010935613374, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 33.918010935613374, "required_final_county_share_points": 30.223295586932515, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 33.918010935613374, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 17371.879400305035, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 33.918010935613374, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 33.918010935613374, "required_final_county_share_points": 30.223295586932515, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 33.918010935613374, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 34.47624510714461, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 34.47624510714461, "required_final_county_share_points": 30.70952394882648, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.159018308558073, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999906, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 35.0308823102411, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 35.0308823102411, "required_final_county_share_points": 31.192619309985268, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.213613509684069, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.999999999999993, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -29.451578331796107, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "WELL BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.0026071874312358283, "criticality_score": 8.85245402424186e-05, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 853.7475639132474, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1588.962196347025, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1973.271912421948, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } } } }, { "cid": "fips:26019", "county": "Benzie", "fips": "26019", "reporting": 24.01, "current_votes": 765, "current_candidate_votes": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 438, "Haley Stevens": 297, "Mallory McMorrow": 30 }, "current_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 57.25490196078431, "Haley Stevens": 38.82352941176471, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.9215686274509802 }, "estimated_remaining_votes": 3174.6120880113112, "estimated_final_votes": 3939.6120880113112, "turnout_disagreement_votes": 4.547473508864641e-13, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 53.493082637610456, "Haley Stevens": 42.63403696904373, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.872880393345816 }, "remaining_sources": [ { "model": "v3", "remaining_votes": 3174.612088011311, "weight": 0.1342208488636769 }, { "model": "histgeo", "remaining_votes": 3174.612088011311, "weight": 0.05994207394479305 }, { "model": "latent", "remaining_votes": 3174.612088011311, "weight": 0.07672787409296966 }, { "model": "batchbias", "remaining_votes": 3174.612088011311, "weight": 0.045123489075924846 } ], "share_sources": [ { "model": "v0", "weight": 0.03630604611298715, "source": "statewide raw" }, { "model": "v1", "weight": 0.14599140026529184, "source": "county live" }, { "model": "v3", "weight": 0.15004242351696637, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "market", "weight": 0.0786646379365536, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "histgeo", "weight": 0.06573339512824654, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "latent", "weight": 0.08483492578364633, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "batchbias", "weight": 0.04883898267529022, "source": "county remaining" } ], "candidate_benchmarks": { "Abdul El-Sayed": { "opponent": "Haley Stevens", "expected_remaining_share_points": 53.493082637610456, "expected_final_county_share_points": 54.22355856212736, "current_county_share_points": 57.25490196078431, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 52.27162982040284, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 52.27162982040284, "required_final_county_share_points": 53.23928935190667, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 52.27162982040284, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": -673.7707984290821, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": false }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 52.27162982040284, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 52.27162982040284, "required_final_county_share_points": 53.23928935190667, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 52.27162982040284, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 52.9218803291313, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 52.9218803291313, "required_final_county_share_points": 53.76327320593299, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.024044322225107804, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999973, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 53.57040495707894, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 53.57040495707894, "required_final_county_share_points": 54.285866313391686, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.003259695682198218, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.9999999999999996, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": 1.221452817207613, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "ABOVE", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.0025859006057384125, "criticality_score": 0.002117069582474819, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -802.7792296941349, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -61.51239805786878, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 325.96090978268273, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Haley Stevens": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 42.63403696904373, "expected_final_county_share_points": 41.89410668753473, "current_county_share_points": 38.82352941176471, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 43.855489786251326, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 43.855489786251326, "required_final_county_share_points": 42.8783758977554, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 43.855489786251326, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 769.8979180357364, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 43.855489786251326, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 43.855489786251326, "required_final_county_share_points": 42.8783758977554, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 43.855489786251326, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 44.50746659977364, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 44.50746659977364, "required_final_county_share_points": 43.40375084002691, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.07865391656842785, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.999999999999999, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 45.16117009848173, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 45.16117009848173, "required_final_county_share_points": 43.9305171770704, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.10597932088248406, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -1.2214528172075987, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.0025859006057384125, "criticality_score": 0.0021170695824748436, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 898.906349300789, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1640.1731809370551, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 2027.6464887776067, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Mallory McMorrow": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 3.872880393345816, "expected_final_county_share_points": 3.882334750337916, "current_county_share_points": 3.9215686274509802, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 35.43370505374941, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 35.43370505374941, "required_final_county_share_points": 29.31462941189167, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 35.43370505374941, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 17514.25232111546, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 35.43370505374941, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 35.43370505374941, "required_final_county_share_points": 29.31462941189167, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 35.43370505374941, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 36.15723776745562, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 36.15723776745562, "required_final_county_share_points": 29.897665418404394, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.159018308558073, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999906, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 36.88171474701345, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 36.88171474701345, "required_final_county_share_points": 30.48146233175766, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.213613509684069, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.999999999999993, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -31.56082466040359, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "WELL BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.0025859006057384125, "criticality_score": 8.193387319763857e-05, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 860.1451927250911, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1601.4120243613572, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1988.8853322019088, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } } } }, { "cid": "26019", "county": "26019", "fips": null, "reporting": 0.0, "current_votes": 0, "current_candidate_votes": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 0, "Haley Stevens": 0, "Mallory McMorrow": 0 }, "current_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": null, "Haley Stevens": null, "Mallory McMorrow": null }, "estimated_remaining_votes": 3174.6120880113112, "estimated_final_votes": 3174.6120880113112, "turnout_disagreement_votes": 4.547473508864641e-13, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 50.730017324504615, "Haley Stevens": 45.27172579179482, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.9982568837005563 }, "remaining_sources": [ { "model": "market", "remaining_votes": 3174.612088011311, "weight": 0.1780093144963334 } ], "share_sources": [ { "model": "v0", "weight": 0.03630604611298715, "source": "statewide raw" }, { "model": "v3", "weight": 0.06301781787712588, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "market", "weight": 0.18729675699179427, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "histgeo", "weight": 0.02760802595386354, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "latent", "weight": 0.03563066882913146, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "batchbias", "weight": 0.020512372723621893, "source": "statewide fallback" } ], "candidate_benchmarks": { "Abdul El-Sayed": { "opponent": "Haley Stevens", "expected_remaining_share_points": 50.730017324504615, "expected_final_county_share_points": 50.73001732450461, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 49.50016019836641, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 49.50016019836641, "required_final_county_share_points": 49.50016019836641, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 49.50016019836641, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": -676.5338637421879, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": false }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 49.50016019836641, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 49.50016019836641, "required_final_county_share_points": 49.50016019836641, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 49.50016019836641, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 50.15444288185997, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 50.15444288185997, "required_final_county_share_points": 50.15444288185997, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.024044322225107804, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999973, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 50.80799124524014, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 50.80799124524014, "required_final_county_share_points": 50.80799124524014, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.003259695682198218, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.9999999999999996, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": 1.2298571261382065, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "ABOVE", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.0025859006057384125, "criticality_score": 0.0021026024493253368, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -805.5422950072407, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -64.27546337097462, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 323.19784446957686, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Haley Stevens": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 45.27172579179482, "expected_final_county_share_points": 45.27172579179482, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 46.501582917933014, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 46.501582917933014, "required_final_county_share_points": 46.501582917933014, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 46.501582917933014, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 772.5356068584873, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 46.501582917933014, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 46.501582917933014, "required_final_county_share_points": 46.501582917933014, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 46.501582917933014, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 47.15659466006662, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 47.15659466006662, "required_final_county_share_points": 47.15659466006661, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.07865391656842785, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.999999999999999, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 47.8123301615876, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 47.8123301615876, "required_final_county_share_points": 47.8123301615876, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.10597932088248406, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -1.2298571261381923, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.0025859006057384125, "criticality_score": 0.002102602449325361, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 901.5440381235401, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1642.810869759806, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 2030.2841776003577, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Mallory McMorrow": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 3.9982568837005563, "expected_final_county_share_points": 3.9982568837005563, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 34.890156189751885, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 34.890156189751885, "required_final_county_share_points": 34.890156189751885, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 34.890156189751885, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 17514.37769760581, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 34.890156189751885, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 34.890156189751885, "required_final_county_share_points": 34.890156189751885, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 34.890156189751885, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 35.56490834428867, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 35.56490834428867, "required_final_county_share_points": 35.56490834428867, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.159018308558073, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999906, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 36.23911150956503, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 36.23911150956503, "required_final_county_share_points": 36.23911150956503, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.213613509684069, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.999999999999993, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -30.89189930605133, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "WELL BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.0025859006057384125, "criticality_score": 8.370804851198863e-05, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 860.2705692154459, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1601.537400851712, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1989.0107086922635, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } } } }, { "cid": "26047", "county": "26047", "fips": null, "reporting": 0.0, "current_votes": 0, "current_candidate_votes": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 0, "Haley Stevens": 0, "Mallory McMorrow": 0 }, "current_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": null, "Haley Stevens": null, "Mallory McMorrow": null }, "estimated_remaining_votes": 2782.232900489893, "estimated_final_votes": 2782.232900489893, "turnout_disagreement_votes": 0.0, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 50.710906450832304, "Haley Stevens": 44.847730416503666, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.441363132664023 }, "remaining_sources": [ { "model": "market", "remaining_votes": 2782.232900489893, "weight": 0.1780093144963334 } ], "share_sources": [ { "model": "v0", "weight": 0.03630604611298715, "source": "statewide raw" }, { "model": "v3", "weight": 0.06301781787712588, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "market", "weight": 0.18729675699179427, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "histgeo", "weight": 0.02760802595386354, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "latent", "weight": 0.03563066882913146, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "batchbias", "weight": 0.020512372723621893, "source": "statewide fallback" } ], "candidate_benchmarks": { "Abdul El-Sayed": { "opponent": "Haley Stevens", "expected_remaining_share_points": 50.710906450832304, "expected_final_county_share_points": 50.710906450832304, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 49.48723771948419, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 49.48723771948419, "required_final_county_share_points": 49.48723771948419, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 49.48723771948419, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": -779.119230200134, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": false }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 49.48723771948419, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 49.48723771948419, "required_final_county_share_points": 49.48723771948419, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 49.48723771948419, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 50.13826343147477, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 50.13826343147477, "required_final_county_share_points": 50.13826343147477, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.024044322225107804, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999973, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 50.78847847817567, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 50.78847847817567, "required_final_county_share_points": 50.78847847817567, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.003259695682198218, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.9999999999999996, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": 1.2236687313481127, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "ABOVE", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.002266285625841326, "criticality_score": 0.0018520417885848606, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -926.3217614035068, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -80.51383362723013, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 361.6049575910578, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Haley Stevens": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 44.847730416503666, "expected_final_county_share_points": 44.847730416503666, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 46.07139914785179, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 46.07139914785179, "required_final_county_share_points": 46.07139914785179, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 46.07139914785179, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 874.6778670674698, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 46.07139914785179, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 46.07139914785179, "required_final_county_share_points": 46.07139914785179, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 46.07139914785179, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 46.723230573520766, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 46.723230573520766, "required_final_county_share_points": 46.723230573520766, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.07865391656842785, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.999999999999999, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 47.3758627214757, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 47.3758627214757, "required_final_county_share_points": 47.3758627214757, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.10597932088248406, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -1.223668731348127, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.002266285625841326, "criticality_score": 0.0018520417885848392, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1021.8803982708428, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1867.6883260471193, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 2309.807117265407, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Mallory McMorrow": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 4.441363132664023, "expected_final_county_share_points": 4.441363132664024, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 36.484377830344414, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 36.484377830344414, "required_final_county_share_points": 36.484377830344414, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 36.484377830344414, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 19984.3151646369, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 36.484377830344414, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 36.484377830344414, "required_final_county_share_points": 36.484377830344414, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 36.484377830344414, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 37.14239258373468, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 37.14239258373468, "required_final_county_share_points": 37.14239258373469, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.159018308558073, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999906, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 37.79819287111364, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 37.79819287111364, "required_final_county_share_points": 37.79819287111364, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.213613509684069, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.999999999999993, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -32.04301469768039, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "WELL BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.002266285625841326, "criticality_score": 7.072635478350867e-05, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 981.4740309870032, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1827.2819587632796, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 2269.4007499815675, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } } } }, { "cid": "fips:26047", "county": "Emmet", "fips": "26047", "reporting": 50.16, "current_votes": 2353, "current_candidate_votes": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 1274, "Haley Stevens": 953, "Mallory McMorrow": 126 }, "current_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 54.14364640883977, "Haley Stevens": 40.50148746281343, "Mallory McMorrow": 5.354866128346791 }, "estimated_remaining_votes": 2782.232900489893, "estimated_final_votes": 5135.232900489893, "turnout_disagreement_votes": 0.0, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 52.46308691817604, "Haley Stevens": 42.73358357877251, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.803329503051446 }, "remaining_sources": [ { "model": "v3", "remaining_votes": 2782.232900489893, "weight": 0.1342208488636769 }, { "model": "histgeo", "remaining_votes": 2782.232900489893, "weight": 0.05994207394479305 }, { "model": "latent", "remaining_votes": 2782.232900489893, "weight": 0.07672787409296966 }, { "model": "batchbias", "remaining_votes": 2782.232900489893, "weight": 0.045123489075924846 } ], "share_sources": [ { "model": "v0", "weight": 0.03630604611298715, "source": "statewide raw" }, { "model": "v1", "weight": 0.14599140026529184, "source": "county live" }, { "model": "v3", "weight": 0.15004242351696637, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "market", "weight": 0.0786646379365536, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "histgeo", "weight": 0.06573339512824654, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "latent", "weight": 0.08483492578364633, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "batchbias", "weight": 0.04883898267529022, "source": "county remaining" } ], "candidate_benchmarks": { "Abdul El-Sayed": { "opponent": "Haley Stevens", "expected_remaining_share_points": 52.46308691817604, "expected_final_county_share_points": 53.23313115144821, "current_county_share_points": 54.14364640883977, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 51.250955667579326, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 51.250955667579326, "required_final_county_share_points": 52.57640700466211, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 51.250955667579326, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": -777.3670497327901, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": false }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 51.250955667579326, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 51.250955667579326, "required_final_county_share_points": 52.57640700466211, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 51.250955667579326, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 51.89616018151322, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 51.89616018151322, "required_final_county_share_points": 52.92597425136678, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.024044322225107804, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999973, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 52.53984175105116, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 52.53984175105116, "required_final_county_share_points": 53.274716377558676, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.003259695682198218, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.9999999999999996, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": 1.2121312505967126, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "ABOVE", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.002266285625841326, "criticality_score": 0.001869670157192689, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -924.5695809361631, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -78.76165315988641, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 363.3571380584016, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Haley Stevens": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 42.73358357877251, "expected_final_county_share_points": 41.71082136669237, "current_county_share_points": 40.50148746281343, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 43.94571482936922, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 43.94571482936922, "required_final_county_share_points": 42.36754551347848, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 43.94571482936922, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 872.5637202297387, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 43.94571482936922, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 43.94571482936922, "required_final_county_share_points": 42.36754551347848, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 43.94571482936922, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 44.59244127745252, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 44.59244127745252, "required_final_county_share_points": 42.717937333351465, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.07865391656842785, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.999999999999999, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 45.240688602963054, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 45.240688602963054, "required_final_county_share_points": 43.069153153868186, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.10597932088248406, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -1.2121312505967126, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.002266285625841326, "criticality_score": 0.001869670157192689, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1019.7662514331116, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1865.5741792093881, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 2307.6929704276763, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Mallory McMorrow": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 4.803329503051446, "expected_final_county_share_points": 5.056047481859407, "current_county_share_points": 5.354866128346791, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 38.44784351659984, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 38.44784351659984, "required_final_county_share_points": 23.284407445933798, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 38.44784351659984, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 19984.677131007287, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 38.44784351659984, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 38.44784351659984, "required_final_county_share_points": 23.284407445933798, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 38.44784351659984, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 39.120707447958615, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 39.120707447958615, "required_final_county_share_points": 23.64896036956084, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.159018308558073, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999906, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 39.79060389230359, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 39.79060389230359, "required_final_county_share_points": 24.011905529691745, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.213613509684069, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.999999999999993, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -33.644514013548395, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "WELL BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.002266285625841326, "criticality_score": 6.735973730899218e-05, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 981.8359973573906, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1827.643925133667, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 2269.762716351955, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } } } }, { "cid": "fips:26043", "county": "Dickinson", "fips": "26043", "reporting": 0.0, "current_votes": 0, "current_candidate_votes": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 0, "Haley Stevens": 0, "Mallory McMorrow": 0 }, "current_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": null, "Haley Stevens": null, "Mallory McMorrow": null }, "estimated_remaining_votes": 2771.437006206097, "estimated_final_votes": 2771.437006206097, "turnout_disagreement_votes": 0.0, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 49.16865152154438, "Haley Stevens": 46.95980356147505, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.8715449169805627 }, "remaining_sources": [ { "model": "v3", "remaining_votes": 2771.437006206097, "weight": 0.1342208488636769 }, { "model": "histgeo", "remaining_votes": 2771.437006206097, "weight": 0.05994207394479305 }, { "model": "latent", "remaining_votes": 2771.437006206097, "weight": 0.07672787409296966 }, { "model": "batchbias", "remaining_votes": 2771.437006206097, "weight": 0.045123489075924846 } ], "share_sources": [ { "model": "v0", "weight": 0.03630604611298715, "source": "statewide raw" }, { "model": "v3", "weight": 0.15004242351696637, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "market", "weight": 0.0786646379365536, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "histgeo", "weight": 0.06573339512824654, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "latent", "weight": 0.08483492578364633, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "batchbias", "weight": 0.04883898267529022, "source": "county remaining" } ], "candidate_benchmarks": { "Abdul El-Sayed": { "opponent": "Haley Stevens", "expected_remaining_share_points": 49.16865152154438, "expected_final_county_share_points": 49.16865152154438, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 47.93490399099499, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 47.93490399099499, "required_final_county_share_points": 47.93490399099499, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 47.93490399099499, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": -783.8940169923975, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": false }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 47.93490399099499, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 47.93490399099499, "required_final_county_share_points": 47.93490399099499, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 47.93490399099499, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.590988980207996, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.590988980207996, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.590988980207996, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.024044322225107804, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999973, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 49.24694453603149, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 49.24694453603149, "required_final_county_share_points": 49.246944536031485, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.003259695682198218, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.9999999999999996, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": 1.233747530549394, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "ABOVE", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.0022574917610181616, "criticality_score": 0.0018297842185044854, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -931.6699629844236, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -82.56726323526016, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 361.27376367526404, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Haley Stevens": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 46.95980356147505, "expected_final_county_share_points": 46.95980356147505, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.19355109202444, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.19355109202444, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.19355109202444, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 48.19355109202444, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 880.0224720754169, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.19355109202444, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.19355109202444, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.19355109202444, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 48.19355109202444, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.84975904430577, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.84975904430577, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.84975904430577, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.07865391656842785, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.999999999999999, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 49.50608347289391, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 49.50608347289391, "required_final_county_share_points": 49.50608347289392, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.10597932088248406, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -1.233747530549394, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.0022574917610181616, "criticality_score": 0.0018297842185044854, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1027.798418067443, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1876.9011178166063, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 2320.7421447271304, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Mallory McMorrow": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 3.8715449169805627, "expected_final_county_share_points": 3.8715449169805627, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 33.802415637919424, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 33.802415637919424, "required_final_county_share_points": 33.802415637919424, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 33.802415637919424, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 20061.57522488557, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 33.802415637919424, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 33.802415637919424, "required_final_county_share_points": 33.802415637919424, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 33.802415637919424, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 34.45653241391705, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 34.45653241391705, "required_final_county_share_points": 34.45653241391705, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.159018308558073, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999906, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 35.110132188854834, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 35.110132188854834, "required_final_county_share_points": 35.110132188854834, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.213613509684069, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.999999999999993, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -29.930870720938863, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "WELL BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.0022574917610181616, "criticality_score": 7.54235244963615e-05, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 984.7101594229485, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1833.8128591721118, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 2277.653886082636, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } } } }, { "cid": "26043", "county": "26043", "fips": null, "reporting": 0.0, "current_votes": 0, "current_candidate_votes": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 0, "Haley Stevens": 0, "Mallory McMorrow": 0 }, "current_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": null, "Haley Stevens": null, "Mallory McMorrow": null }, "estimated_remaining_votes": 2771.437006206097, "estimated_final_votes": 2771.437006206097, "turnout_disagreement_votes": 0.0, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 48.973903537573875, "Haley Stevens": 46.149745434179586, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.8763510282465425 }, "remaining_sources": [ { "model": "market", "remaining_votes": 2771.437006206097, "weight": 0.1780093144963334 } ], "share_sources": [ { "model": "v0", "weight": 0.03630604611298715, "source": "statewide raw" }, { "model": "v3", "weight": 0.06301781787712588, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "market", "weight": 0.18729675699179427, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "histgeo", "weight": 0.02760802595386354, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "latent", "weight": 0.03563066882913146, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "batchbias", "weight": 0.020512372723621893, "source": "statewide fallback" } ], "candidate_benchmarks": { "Abdul El-Sayed": { "opponent": "Haley Stevens", "expected_remaining_share_points": 48.973903537573875, "expected_final_county_share_points": 48.973903537573875, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 47.75327342108671, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 47.75327342108671, "required_final_county_share_points": 47.75327342108671, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 47.75327342108671, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": -784.0887649763681, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": false }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 47.75327342108671, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 47.75327342108671, "required_final_county_share_points": 47.75327342108671, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 47.75327342108671, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.402435191598066, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.402435191598066, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.40243519159807, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.024044322225107804, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999973, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 49.05134992915548, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 49.05134992915548, "required_final_county_share_points": 49.05134992915548, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.003259695682198218, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.9999999999999996, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": 1.2206301164871647, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "ABOVE", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.0022574917610181616, "criticality_score": 0.0018494478634649516, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -931.8647109683941, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -82.76201121923066, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 361.07901569129353, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Haley Stevens": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 46.149745434179586, "expected_final_county_share_points": 46.149745434179586, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 47.37037555066674, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 47.37037555066674, "required_final_county_share_points": 47.37037555066674, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 47.37037555066674, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 879.2124139481215, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 47.37037555066674, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 47.37037555066674, "required_final_county_share_points": 47.37037555066674, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 47.37037555066674, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.01977805349677, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.01977805349677, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.01977805349678, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.07865391656842785, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.999999999999999, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.6694149671013, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.6694149671013, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.6694149671013, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.10597932088248406, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -1.2206301164871576, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.0022574917610181616, "criticality_score": 0.0018494478634649622, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1026.9883599401476, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1876.0910596893107, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 2319.932086599835, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Mallory McMorrow": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 4.8763510282465425, "expected_final_county_share_points": 4.8763510282465425, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 37.136501345834354, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 37.136501345834354, "required_final_county_share_points": 37.13650134583436, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 37.136501345834354, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 20062.580030996833, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 37.136501345834354, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 37.136501345834354, "required_final_county_share_points": 37.13650134583436, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 37.136501345834354, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 37.749746513256014, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 37.749746513256014, "required_final_county_share_points": 37.74974651325601, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.159018308558073, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999906, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 38.359105897231565, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 38.359105897231565, "required_final_county_share_points": 38.359105897231565, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.213613509684069, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.999999999999993, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -32.260150317587815, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "WELL BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.0022574917610181616, "criticality_score": 6.997771984302895e-05, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 985.7149655342145, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1834.8176652833777, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 2278.658692193902, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } } } }, { "cid": "26143", "county": "26143", "fips": null, "reporting": 0.0, "current_votes": 0, "current_candidate_votes": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 0, "Haley Stevens": 0, "Mallory McMorrow": 0 }, "current_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": null, "Haley Stevens": null, "Mallory McMorrow": null }, "estimated_remaining_votes": 2732.255070860492, "estimated_final_votes": 2732.255070860492, "turnout_disagreement_votes": 0.0, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 45.53344018445743, "Haley Stevens": 50.23026380270551, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.236296012837063 }, "remaining_sources": [ { "model": "market", "remaining_votes": 2732.255070860492, "weight": 0.1780093144963334 } ], "share_sources": [ { "model": "v0", "weight": 0.03630604611298715, "source": "statewide raw" }, { "model": "v3", "weight": 0.06301781787712588, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "market", "weight": 0.18729675699179427, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "histgeo", "weight": 0.02760802595386354, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "latent", "weight": 0.03563066882913146, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "batchbias", "weight": 0.020512372723621893, "source": "statewide fallback" } ], "candidate_benchmarks": { "Abdul El-Sayed": { "opponent": "Haley Stevens", "expected_remaining_share_points": 45.53344018445743, "expected_final_county_share_points": 45.53344018445744, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 44.30894780627911, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 44.30894780627911, "required_final_county_share_points": 44.30894780627911, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 44.30894780627911, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": -799.4757731322253, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": false }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 44.30894780627911, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 44.30894780627911, "required_final_county_share_points": 44.30894780627911, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 44.30894780627911, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 44.9595475971268, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 44.9595475971268, "required_final_county_share_points": 44.9595475971268, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.024044322225107804, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999973, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 45.611298746342676, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 45.611298746342676, "required_final_county_share_points": 45.611298746342676, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.003259695682198218, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.9999999999999996, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": 1.2244923781783257, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "ABOVE", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.002225575864670752, "criticality_score": 0.001817549789882511, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -949.3709017815539, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -88.0916349767853, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 362.11429929747845, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Haley Stevens": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 50.23026380270551, "expected_final_county_share_points": 50.230263802705515, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 51.454756180883834, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 51.454756180883834, "required_final_county_share_points": 51.454756180883834, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 51.454756180883834, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 895.2394771193882, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 51.454756180883834, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 51.454756180883834, "required_final_county_share_points": 51.454756180883834, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 51.454756180883834, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 52.10420122635174, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 52.10420122635174, "required_final_county_share_points": 52.10420122635174, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.07865391656842785, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.999999999999999, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 52.75248816288217, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 52.75248816288217, "required_final_county_share_points": 52.75248816288217, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.10597932088248406, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -1.2244923781783257, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.002225575864670752, "criticality_score": 0.001817549789882511, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1045.134605768717, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1906.4138725734852, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 2356.6198068477493, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Mallory McMorrow": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 4.236296012837063, "expected_final_county_share_points": 4.236296012837063, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 33.59035273597012, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 33.59035273597012, "required_final_county_share_points": 33.59035273597012, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 33.59035273597012, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 20349.57770686221, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 33.59035273597012, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 33.59035273597012, "required_final_county_share_points": 33.59035273597012, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 33.59035273597012, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 34.17178368873538, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 34.17178368873538, "required_final_county_share_points": 34.17178368873538, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.159018308558073, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999906, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 34.75043332895887, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 34.75043332895887, "required_final_county_share_points": 34.75043332895887, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.213613509684069, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.999999999999993, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -29.35405672313306, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "WELL BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.002225575864670752, "criticality_score": 7.581834039711594e-05, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 999.1406379788484, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1860.4199047836169, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 2310.625839057881, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } } } }, { "cid": "fips:26143", "county": "Roscommon", "fips": "26143", "reporting": 15.72, "current_votes": 484, "current_candidate_votes": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 163, "Haley Stevens": 297, "Mallory McMorrow": 24 }, "current_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 33.67768595041322, "Haley Stevens": 61.36363636363637, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.958677685950414 }, "estimated_remaining_votes": 2732.255070860492, "estimated_final_votes": 3216.255070860492, "turnout_disagreement_votes": 0.0, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 41.97757579994265, "Haley Stevens": 53.64337213625511, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.379052063802255 }, "remaining_sources": [ { "model": "v3", "remaining_votes": 2732.255070860492, "weight": 0.1342208488636769 }, { "model": "histgeo", "remaining_votes": 2732.255070860492, "weight": 0.05994207394479305 }, { "model": "latent", "remaining_votes": 2732.255070860492, "weight": 0.07672787409296966 }, { "model": "batchbias", "remaining_votes": 2732.255070860492, "weight": 0.045123489075924846 } ], "share_sources": [ { "model": "v0", "weight": 0.03630604611298715, "source": "statewide raw" }, { "model": "v1", "weight": 0.14599140026529184, "source": "county live" }, { "model": "v3", "weight": 0.15004242351696637, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "market", "weight": 0.0786646379365536, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "histgeo", "weight": 0.06573339512824654, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "latent", "weight": 0.08483492578364633, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "batchbias", "weight": 0.04883898267529022, "source": "county remaining" } ], "candidate_benchmarks": { "Abdul El-Sayed": { "opponent": "Haley Stevens", "expected_remaining_share_points": 41.97757579994265, "expected_final_county_share_points": 40.72856208720329, "current_county_share_points": 33.67768595041322, "recent_batch_votes": 214, "recent_batch_share_points": 28.504672897196258, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 40.77245653245891, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 40.77245653245891, "required_final_county_share_points": 39.704795887996596, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 40.77245653245891, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": -803.0316375167381, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": false }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 40.77245653245891, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 40.77245653245891, "required_final_county_share_points": 39.704795887996596, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 40.77245653245891, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 41.41220221832386, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 41.41220221832386, "required_final_county_share_points": 40.248269075214296, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.024044322225107804, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999973, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 42.05435497077324, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 42.05435497077324, "required_final_county_share_points": 40.79378710021267, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.003259695682198218, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.9999999999999996, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": 1.205119267483738, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -12.267783635262653, "status": "ABOVE", "recent_status": "WELL BELOW", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.002225575864670752, "criticality_score": 0.001846768137163473, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -952.9267661660687, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -91.64749936130008, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 358.55843491296366, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Haley Stevens": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 53.64337213625511, "expected_final_county_share_points": 54.805160552822706, "current_county_share_points": 61.36363636363637, "recent_batch_votes": 214, "recent_batch_share_points": 67.7570093457944, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 54.848491403738855, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 54.848491403738855, "required_final_county_share_points": 55.82892675202942, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 54.848491403738855, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 898.6525854529358, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 54.848491403738855, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 54.848491403738855, "required_final_county_share_points": 55.82892675202942, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 54.848491403738855, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 55.48583722269148, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 55.48583722269148, "required_final_county_share_points": 56.37036121769172, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.07865391656842785, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.999999999999999, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 56.12079035673592, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 56.12079035673592, "required_final_county_share_points": 56.90976306301475, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.10597932088248406, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -1.2051192674837452, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": 12.908517942055546, "status": "BELOW", "recent_status": "WELL ABOVE", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.002225575864670752, "criticality_score": 0.0018467681371634622, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1048.5477141022664, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1909.8269809070348, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 2360.032915181299, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Mallory McMorrow": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 4.379052063802255, "expected_final_county_share_points": 4.466277359974008, "current_county_share_points": 4.958677685950414, "recent_batch_votes": 214, "recent_batch_share_points": 3.7383177570093453, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 32.42682629440859, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 32.42682629440859, "required_final_county_share_points": 28.293266102947513, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 32.42682629440859, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 20349.720462913177, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 32.42682629440859, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 32.42682629440859, "required_final_county_share_points": 28.293266102947513, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 32.42682629440859, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 32.944977094900935, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 32.944977094900935, "required_final_county_share_points": 28.7334426812737, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.159018308558073, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999906, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 33.459305524073116, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 33.459305524073116, "required_final_county_share_points": 29.17037210003321, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.213613509684069, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.999999999999993, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -28.047774230606336, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -28.688508537399247, "status": "WELL BELOW", "recent_status": "WELL BELOW", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.002225575864670752, "criticality_score": 7.934946446631604e-05, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 999.2833940298136, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1860.562660834582, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 2310.768595108846, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } } } }, { "cid": "fips:26105", "county": "Mason", "fips": "26105", "reporting": 20.12, "current_votes": 718, "current_candidate_votes": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 349, "Haley Stevens": 332, "Mallory McMorrow": 37 }, "current_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 48.607242339832865, "Haley Stevens": 46.239554317548745, "Mallory McMorrow": 5.153203342618385 }, "estimated_remaining_votes": 2726.660439539037, "estimated_final_votes": 3444.660439539037, "turnout_disagreement_votes": 0.0, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 48.939170343713506, "Haley Stevens": 46.56819973258714, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.492629923699347 }, "remaining_sources": [ { "model": "v3", "remaining_votes": 2726.660439539037, "weight": 0.1342208488636769 }, { "model": "histgeo", "remaining_votes": 2726.660439539037, "weight": 0.05994207394479305 }, { "model": "latent", "remaining_votes": 2726.660439539037, "weight": 0.07672787409296966 }, { "model": "batchbias", "remaining_votes": 2726.660439539037, "weight": 0.045123489075924846 } ], "share_sources": [ { "model": "v0", "weight": 0.03630604611298715, "source": "statewide raw" }, { "model": "v1", "weight": 0.14599140026529184, "source": "county live" }, { "model": "v3", "weight": 0.15004242351696637, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "market", "weight": 0.0786646379365536, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "histgeo", "weight": 0.06573339512824654, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "latent", "weight": 0.08483492578364633, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "batchbias", "weight": 0.04883898267529022, "source": "county remaining" } ], "candidate_benchmarks": { "Abdul El-Sayed": { "opponent": "Haley Stevens", "expected_remaining_share_points": 48.939170343713506, "expected_final_county_share_points": 48.869983754507004, "current_county_share_points": 48.607242339832865, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 47.713444182807855, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 47.713444182807855, "required_final_county_share_points": 47.899746167577604, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 47.713444182807855, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": -797.8038543941432, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": false }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 47.713444182807855, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 47.713444182807855, "required_final_county_share_points": 47.899746167577604, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 47.713444182807855, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.36527802690067, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.36527802690067, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.415712715525174, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.024044322225107804, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999973, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 49.01695040235716, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 49.01695040235716, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.93155145112358, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.003259695682198218, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.9999999999999996, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": 1.2257261609056513, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "ABOVE", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.0022210187219011933, "criticality_score": 0.0018120023809071277, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -948.0065416853615, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -84.96008014937047, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 366.16959812486925, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Haley Stevens": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 46.56819973258714, "expected_final_county_share_points": 46.49969736141318, "current_county_share_points": 46.239554317548745, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 47.7939258934928, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 47.7939258934928, "required_final_county_share_points": 47.469934948342576, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 47.7939258934928, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 893.3112244704438, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 47.7939258934928, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 47.7939258934928, "required_final_county_share_points": 47.469934948342576, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 47.7939258934928, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.44591479929029, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.44591479929029, "required_final_county_share_points": 47.98602423715918, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.07865391656842785, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.999999999999999, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 49.09805234223422, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 49.09805234223422, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.5022311814121, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.10597932088248406, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -1.2257261609056584, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.0022210187219011933, "criticality_score": 0.001812002380907117, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1043.5139117616623, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1906.560373297653, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 2357.690051571893, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Mallory McMorrow": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 4.492629923699347, "expected_final_county_share_points": 4.630318884079818, "current_county_share_points": 5.153203342618385, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 35.9046884122628, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 35.9046884122628, "required_final_county_share_points": 29.49489369735634, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 35.9046884122628, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 20391.579130353086, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 35.9046884122628, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 35.9046884122628, "required_final_county_share_points": 29.49489369735634, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 35.9046884122628, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 36.53190383236086, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 36.53190383236086, "required_final_county_share_points": 29.991373249715085, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.159018308558073, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999906, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 37.156314149488324, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 37.156314149488324, "required_final_county_share_points": 30.485632390676837, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.213613509684069, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.999999999999993, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -31.412058488563453, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "WELL BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.0022210187219011933, "criticality_score": 7.070592723841467e-05, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1001.4383419527744, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1864.4848034887652, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 2315.614481763005, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } } } }, { "cid": "26105", "county": "26105", "fips": null, "reporting": 0.0, "current_votes": 0, "current_candidate_votes": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 0, "Haley Stevens": 0, "Mallory McMorrow": 0 }, "current_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": null, "Haley Stevens": null, "Mallory McMorrow": null }, "estimated_remaining_votes": 2726.660439539037, "estimated_final_votes": 2726.660439539037, "turnout_disagreement_votes": 0.0, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 48.56044532146647, "Haley Stevens": 47.148583173690966, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.2909715048425685 }, "remaining_sources": [ { "model": "market", "remaining_votes": 2726.660439539037, "weight": 0.1780093144963334 } ], "share_sources": [ { "model": "v0", "weight": 0.03630604611298715, "source": "statewide raw" }, { "model": "v3", "weight": 0.06301781787712588, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "market", "weight": 0.18729675699179427, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "histgeo", "weight": 0.02760802595386354, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "latent", "weight": 0.03563066882913146, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "batchbias", "weight": 0.020512372723621893, "source": "statewide fallback" } ], "candidate_benchmarks": { "Abdul El-Sayed": { "opponent": "Haley Stevens", "expected_remaining_share_points": 48.56044532146647, "expected_final_county_share_points": 48.56044532146646, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 47.33195894811292, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 47.33195894811292, "required_final_county_share_points": 47.33195894811292, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 47.33195894811292, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": -798.1825794163925, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": false }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 47.33195894811292, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 47.33195894811292, "required_final_county_share_points": 47.33195894811292, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 47.33195894811292, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 47.98518152904427, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 47.98518152904427, "required_final_county_share_points": 47.985181529044276, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.024044322225107804, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999973, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.63842198175606, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.63842198175606, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.63842198175606, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.003259695682198218, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.9999999999999996, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": 1.2284863733535474, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "ABOVE", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.0022210187219011933, "criticality_score": 0.001807931101293546, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -948.3852667076086, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -85.33880517161751, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 365.79087310262224, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Haley Stevens": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 47.148583173690966, "expected_final_county_share_points": 47.148583173690966, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.377069547044506, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.377069547044506, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.37706954704451, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 48.377069547044506, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 893.8916079115501, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.377069547044506, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.377069547044506, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.37706954704451, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 48.377069547044506, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 49.03026777887394, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 49.03026777887394, "required_final_county_share_points": 49.03026777887394, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.07865391656842785, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.999999999999999, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 49.68343517372752, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 49.68343517372752, "required_final_county_share_points": 49.68343517372752, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.10597932088248406, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -1.2284863733535403, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.0022210187219011933, "criticality_score": 0.0018079311012935565, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1044.094295202766, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1907.1407567387569, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 2358.2704350129966, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Mallory McMorrow": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 4.2909715048425685, "expected_final_county_share_points": 4.2909715048425685, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 35.067291975981384, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 35.067291975981384, "required_final_county_share_points": 35.067291975981384, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 35.067291975981384, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 20391.377471934233, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 35.067291975981384, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 35.067291975981384, "required_final_county_share_points": 35.067291975981384, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 35.067291975981384, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 35.695970947172064, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 35.695970947172064, "required_final_county_share_points": 35.695970947172064, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.159018308558073, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999906, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 36.32240180411807, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 36.32240180411807, "required_final_county_share_points": 36.32240180411807, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.213613509684069, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.999999999999993, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -30.776320471138817, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "WELL BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.0022210187219011933, "criticality_score": 7.216648019973679e-05, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1001.2366835339176, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1864.2831450699086, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 2315.4128233441484, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } } } }, { "cid": "26157", "county": "26157", "fips": null, "reporting": 0.0, "current_votes": 0, "current_candidate_votes": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 0, "Haley Stevens": 0, "Mallory McMorrow": 0 }, "current_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": null, "Haley Stevens": null, "Mallory McMorrow": null }, "estimated_remaining_votes": 2618.943835602582, "estimated_final_votes": 2618.943835602582, "turnout_disagreement_votes": 0.0, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 44.77362907114305, "Haley Stevens": 50.41595935107611, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.810411577780858 }, "remaining_sources": [ { "model": "market", "remaining_votes": 2618.943835602582, "weight": 0.1780093144963334 } ], "share_sources": [ { "model": "v0", "weight": 0.03630604611298715, "source": "statewide raw" }, { "model": "v3", "weight": 0.06301781787712588, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "market", "weight": 0.18729675699179427, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "histgeo", "weight": 0.02760802595386354, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "latent", "weight": 0.03563066882913146, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "batchbias", "weight": 0.020512372723621893, "source": "statewide fallback" } ], "candidate_benchmarks": { "Abdul El-Sayed": { "opponent": "Haley Stevens", "expected_remaining_share_points": 44.77362907114305, "expected_final_county_share_points": 44.77362907114305, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 43.558148221656204, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 43.558148221656204, "required_final_county_share_points": 43.558148221656204, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 43.558148221656204, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": -836.7957565041387, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": false }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 43.558148221656204, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 43.558148221656204, "required_final_county_share_points": 43.558148221656204, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 43.558148221656204, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 44.20388063296404, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 44.20388063296404, "required_final_county_share_points": 44.203880632964044, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.024044322225107804, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999973, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 44.850936194800624, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 44.850936194800624, "required_final_county_share_points": 44.850936194800624, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.003259695682198218, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.9999999999999996, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": 1.2154808494868448, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "ABOVE", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.002133277472373648, "criticality_score": 0.0017550893321554848, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -993.1762484344605, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -94.63286916688274, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 375.0516769964828, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Haley Stevens": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 50.41595935107611, "expected_final_county_share_points": 50.415959351076104, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 51.63144020056295, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 51.63144020056295, "required_final_county_share_points": 51.63144020056295, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 51.63144020056295, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 931.9853449263579, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 51.63144020056295, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 51.63144020056295, "required_final_county_share_points": 51.63144020056295, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 51.63144020056295, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 52.275847131293986, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 52.275847131293986, "required_final_county_share_points": 52.275847131293986, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.07865391656842785, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.999999999999999, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 52.91892627586393, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 52.91892627586393, "required_final_county_share_points": 52.91892627586393, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.10597932088248406, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -1.2154808494868377, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.002133277472373648, "criticality_score": 0.0017550893321554952, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1088.3658368566796, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1986.9092161242572, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 2456.593762287623, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Mallory McMorrow": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 4.810411577780858, "expected_final_county_share_points": 4.810411577780858, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 34.98972277045115, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 34.98972277045115, "required_final_county_share_points": 34.98972277045115, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 34.98972277045115, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 21230.41345143487, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 34.98972277045115, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 34.98972277045115, "required_final_county_share_points": 34.98972277045115, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 34.98972277045115, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 35.53719091224037, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 35.53719091224037, "required_final_county_share_points": 35.53719091224037, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.159018308558073, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999906, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 36.080266100812594, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 36.080266100812594, "required_final_county_share_points": 36.080266100812594, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.213613509684069, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.999999999999993, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -30.179311192670294, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "WELL BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.002133277472373648, "criticality_score": 7.068675155487846e-05, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1042.7602890833844, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1941.303668350962, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 2410.988214514328, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } } } }, { "cid": "fips:26157", "county": "Tuscola", "fips": "26157", "reporting": 41.07, "current_votes": 2125, "current_candidate_votes": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 786, "Haley Stevens": 1197, "Mallory McMorrow": 142 }, "current_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 36.98823529411765, "Haley Stevens": 56.32941176470588, "Mallory McMorrow": 6.682352941176471 }, "estimated_remaining_votes": 2618.9438356025817, "estimated_final_votes": 4743.943835602582, "turnout_disagreement_votes": 4.547473508864641e-13, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 41.824986232102596, "Haley Stevens": 52.617310696089746, "Mallory McMorrow": 5.5577030718076745 }, "remaining_sources": [ { "model": "v3", "remaining_votes": 2618.943835602582, "weight": 0.1342208488636769 }, { "model": "histgeo", "remaining_votes": 2618.943835602582, "weight": 0.05994207394479305 }, { "model": "latent", "remaining_votes": 2618.943835602582, "weight": 0.07672787409296966 }, { "model": "batchbias", "remaining_votes": 2618.943835602582, "weight": 0.045123489075924846 } ], "share_sources": [ { "model": "v0", "weight": 0.03630604611298715, "source": "statewide raw" }, { "model": "v1", "weight": 0.14599140026529184, "source": "county live" }, { "model": "v3", "weight": 0.15004242351696637, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "market", "weight": 0.0786646379365536, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "histgeo", "weight": 0.06573339512824654, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "latent", "weight": 0.08483492578364633, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "batchbias", "weight": 0.04883898267529022, "source": "county remaining" } ], "candidate_benchmarks": { "Abdul El-Sayed": { "opponent": "Haley Stevens", "expected_remaining_share_points": 41.824986232102596, "expected_final_county_share_points": 39.6584142617343, "current_county_share_points": 36.98823529411765, "recent_batch_votes": 350, "recent_batch_share_points": 36.857142857142854, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 40.632280170813765, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 40.632280170813765, "required_final_county_share_points": 38.99996839999035, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 40.632280170813765, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": -839.74439934318, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": false }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 40.632280170813765, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 40.632280170813765, "required_final_county_share_points": 38.99996839999035, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 40.632280170813765, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 41.265494949753275, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 41.265494949753275, "required_final_county_share_points": 39.349541244734084, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.024044322225107804, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999973, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 41.900958568092356, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 41.900958568092356, "required_final_county_share_points": 39.70035558480045, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.003259695682198218, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.9999999999999996, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": 1.1927060612888312, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -3.7751373136709105, "status": "ABOVE", "recent_status": "WELL BELOW", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.0021332774723736474, "criticality_score": 0.0017886028600109906, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -996.1248912735012, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -97.58151200592323, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 372.10303415744244, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Haley Stevens": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 52.617310696089746, "expected_final_county_share_points": 54.28010752593613, "current_county_share_points": 56.32941176470588, "recent_batch_votes": 350, "recent_batch_share_points": 58.857142857142854, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 53.81001675737858, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 53.81001675737858, "required_final_county_share_points": 54.93855338768008, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 53.81001675737858, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 934.1866962713723, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 53.81001675737858, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 53.81001675737858, "required_final_county_share_points": 54.93855338768008, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 53.81001675737858, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 54.44098836678847, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 54.44098836678847, "required_final_county_share_points": 55.2868878672122, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.07865391656842785, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.999999999999999, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 55.0697224697066, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 55.0697224697066, "required_final_county_share_points": 55.63398710787204, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.10597932088248406, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -1.1927060612888312, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": 5.047126099764277, "status": "BELOW", "recent_status": "WELL ABOVE", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.0021332774723736474, "criticality_score": 0.0017886028600109906, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1090.5671882016936, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1989.1105674692712, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 2458.795113632637, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Mallory McMorrow": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 5.5577030718076745, "expected_final_county_share_points": 6.061478212329574, "current_county_share_points": 6.682352941176471, "recent_batch_votes": 350, "recent_batch_share_points": 4.285714285714286, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 35.43310255073383, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 35.43310255073383, "required_final_county_share_points": 22.554505114187876, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 35.43310255073383, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 21231.160742928903, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 35.43310255073383, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 35.43310255073383, "required_final_county_share_points": 22.554505114187876, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 35.43310255073383, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 35.90706834318055, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 35.90706834318055, "required_final_county_share_points": 22.816162889539076, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.159018308558073, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999906, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 36.37514221222855, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 36.37514221222855, "required_final_county_share_points": 23.074567966924274, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.213613509684069, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.999999999999993, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -29.875399478926155, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -31.147388265019543, "status": "WELL BELOW", "recent_status": "WELL BELOW", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.0021332774723736474, "criticality_score": 7.140582250217081e-05, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1043.5075805774115, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1942.0509598449892, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 2411.735506008355, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } } } }, { "cid": "fips:26051", "county": "Gladwin", "fips": "26051", "reporting": 0.0, "current_votes": 0, "current_candidate_votes": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 0, "Haley Stevens": 0, "Mallory McMorrow": 0 }, "current_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": null, "Haley Stevens": null, "Mallory McMorrow": null }, "estimated_remaining_votes": 2590.3361413120724, "estimated_final_votes": 2590.3361413120724, "turnout_disagreement_votes": 0.0, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 49.097174862354414, "Haley Stevens": 47.03323172214603, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.8695934154995495 }, "remaining_sources": [ { "model": "v3", "remaining_votes": 2590.3361413120724, "weight": 0.1342208488636769 }, { "model": "histgeo", "remaining_votes": 2590.3361413120724, "weight": 0.05994207394479305 }, { "model": "latent", "remaining_votes": 2590.3361413120724, "weight": 0.07672787409296966 }, { "model": "batchbias", "remaining_votes": 2590.3361413120724, "weight": 0.045123489075924846 } ], "share_sources": [ { "model": "v0", "weight": 0.03630604611298715, "source": "statewide raw" }, { "model": "v3", "weight": 0.15004242351696637, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "market", "weight": 0.0786646379365536, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "histgeo", "weight": 0.06573339512824654, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "latent", "weight": 0.08483492578364633, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "batchbias", "weight": 0.04883898267529022, "source": "county remaining" } ], "candidate_benchmarks": { "Abdul El-Sayed": { "opponent": "Haley Stevens", "expected_remaining_share_points": 49.097174862354414, "expected_final_county_share_points": 49.097174862354414, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 47.86336733204149, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 47.86336733204149, "required_final_county_share_points": 47.86336733204149, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 47.86336733204149, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": -842.208270476059, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": false }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 47.86336733204149, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 47.86336733204149, "required_final_county_share_points": 47.86336733204149, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 47.86336733204149, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.5194723317759, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.5194723317759, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.5194723317759, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.024044322225107804, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999973, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 49.17547490885187, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 49.17547490885187, "required_final_county_share_points": 49.17547490885187, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.003259695682198218, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.9999999999999996, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": 1.233807530312923, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "ABOVE", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.0021099748917925505, "criticality_score": 0.0017101329339896398, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -1000.3158298841454, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -91.84892992329259, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 383.022816347165, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Haley Stevens": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 47.03323172214603, "expected_final_county_share_points": 47.033231722146034, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.26703925245896, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.26703925245896, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.26703925245896, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 48.26703925245896, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 938.3386770605597, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.26703925245896, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.26703925245896, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.26703925245896, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 48.26703925245896, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.92324019040962, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.92324019040962, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.92324019040963, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.07865391656842785, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.999999999999999, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 49.57953056676023, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 49.57953056676023, "required_final_county_share_points": 49.57953056676023, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.10597932088248406, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -1.2338075303129301, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.0021099748917925505, "criticality_score": 0.00171013293398963, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1096.4462364686458, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 2004.9131364294985, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 2479.784882699956, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Mallory McMorrow": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 3.8695934154995495, "expected_final_county_share_points": 3.86959341549955, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 33.767256558424904, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 33.767256558424904, "required_final_county_share_points": 33.767256558424904, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 33.767256558424904, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 21463.888373072437, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 33.767256558424904, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 33.767256558424904, "required_final_county_share_points": 33.767256558424904, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 33.767256558424904, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 34.42028951167481, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 34.42028951167481, "required_final_county_share_points": 34.42028951167481, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.159018308558073, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999906, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 35.072791030119745, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 35.072791030119745, "required_final_county_share_points": 35.072791030119745, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.213613509684069, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.999999999999993, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -29.897663142925353, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "WELL BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.0021099748917925505, "criticality_score": 7.05732378382165e-05, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1053.2825981619994, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1961.7494981228522, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 2436.6212443933096, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } } } }, { "cid": "26051", "county": "26051", "fips": null, "reporting": 0.0, "current_votes": 0, "current_candidate_votes": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 0, "Haley Stevens": 0, "Mallory McMorrow": 0 }, "current_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": null, "Haley Stevens": null, "Mallory McMorrow": null }, "estimated_remaining_votes": 2590.3361413120724, "estimated_final_votes": 2590.3361413120724, "turnout_disagreement_votes": 0.0, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 47.866155366725685, "Haley Stevens": 48.07259662711275, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.061248006161554 }, "remaining_sources": [ { "model": "market", "remaining_votes": 2590.3361413120724, "weight": 0.1780093144963334 } ], "share_sources": [ { "model": "v0", "weight": 0.03630604611298715, "source": "statewide raw" }, { "model": "v3", "weight": 0.06301781787712588, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "market", "weight": 0.18729675699179427, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "histgeo", "weight": 0.02760802595386354, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "latent", "weight": 0.03563066882913146, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "batchbias", "weight": 0.020512372723621893, "source": "statewide fallback" } ], "candidate_benchmarks": { "Abdul El-Sayed": { "opponent": "Haley Stevens", "expected_remaining_share_points": 47.866155366725685, "expected_final_county_share_points": 47.866155366725685, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 46.63499237555791, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 46.63499237555791, "required_final_county_share_points": 46.63499237555791, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 46.63499237555791, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": -843.4392899716851, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": false }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 46.63499237555791, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 46.63499237555791, "required_final_county_share_points": 46.63499237555791, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 46.63499237555791, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 47.28950516908663, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 47.28950516908663, "required_final_county_share_points": 47.28950516908664, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.024044322225107804, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999973, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 47.94433799359388, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 47.94433799359388, "required_final_county_share_points": 47.94433799359388, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.003259695682198218, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.9999999999999996, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": 1.2311629911677784, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "ABOVE", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.0021099748917925505, "criticality_score": 0.0017138063009766113, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -1001.5468493797741, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -93.07994941892133, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 381.79179685153633, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Haley Stevens": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 48.07259662711275, "expected_final_county_share_points": 48.07259662711275, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 49.30375961828052, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 49.30375961828052, "required_final_county_share_points": 49.303759618280516, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 49.30375961828052, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 939.3780419655236, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 49.30375961828052, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 49.30375961828052, "required_final_county_share_points": 49.303759618280516, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 49.30375961828052, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 49.95794612902271, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 49.95794612902271, "required_final_county_share_points": 49.95794612902271, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.07865391656842785, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.999999999999999, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 50.61180010634276, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 50.61180010634276, "required_final_county_share_points": 50.61180010634276, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.10597932088248406, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -1.2311629911677713, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.0021099748917925505, "criticality_score": 0.001713806300976621, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1097.4856013736126, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 2005.9525013344653, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 2480.824247604923, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Mallory McMorrow": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 4.061248006161554, "expected_final_county_share_points": 4.061248006161554, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 33.98016158619869, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 33.98016158619869, "required_final_county_share_points": 33.98016158619869, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 33.98016158619869, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 21464.080027663098, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 33.98016158619869, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 33.98016158619869, "required_final_county_share_points": 33.98016158619869, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 33.98016158619869, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 34.60618224899911, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 34.60618224899911, "required_final_county_share_points": 34.60618224899911, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.159018308558073, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999906, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 35.23057058958013, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 35.23057058958013, "required_final_county_share_points": 35.23057058958013, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.213613509684069, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.999999999999993, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -29.918913580037135, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "WELL BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.0021099748917925505, "criticality_score": 7.052311194883741e-05, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1053.4742527526614, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1961.9411527135142, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 2436.8128989839715, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } } } }, { "cid": "fips:26067", "county": "Ionia", "fips": "26067", "reporting": 53.0, "current_votes": 5141, "current_candidate_votes": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 2455, "Haley Stevens": 2478, "Mallory McMorrow": 208 }, "current_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 47.753355378331065, "Haley Stevens": 48.20073915580627, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.045905465862672 }, "estimated_remaining_votes": 2507.4500000000003, "estimated_final_votes": 7648.450000000001, "turnout_disagreement_votes": 1352.012225500406, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 48.31789410644857, "Haley Stevens": 47.71965950059066, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.962446392960773 }, "remaining_sources": [ { "model": "v3", "remaining_votes": 1155.4377744995945, "weight": 0.1342208488636769 }, { "model": "histgeo", "remaining_votes": 1155.4377744995945, "weight": 0.05994207394479305 }, { "model": "latent", "remaining_votes": 1155.4377744995945, "weight": 0.07672787409296966 }, { "model": "batchbias", "remaining_votes": 1155.4377744995945, "weight": 0.045123489075924846 } ], "share_sources": [ { "model": "v0", "weight": 0.03630604611298715, "source": "statewide raw" }, { "model": "v1", "weight": 0.14599140026529184, "source": "county live" }, { "model": "v3", "weight": 0.15004242351696637, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "market", "weight": 0.0786646379365536, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "histgeo", "weight": 0.06573339512824654, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "latent", "weight": 0.08483492578364633, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "batchbias", "weight": 0.04883898267529022, "source": "county remaining" } ], "candidate_benchmarks": { "Abdul El-Sayed": { "opponent": "Haley Stevens", "expected_remaining_share_points": 48.31789410644857, "expected_final_county_share_points": 47.93843243758074, "current_county_share_points": 47.753355378331065, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 47.085240180454335, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 47.085240180454335, "required_final_county_share_points": 47.53432205093584, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 47.085240180454335, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": -872.4504992845821, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": false }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 47.085240180454335, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 47.085240180454335, "required_final_county_share_points": 47.53432205093584, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 47.085240180454335, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 47.74061161574997, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 47.74061161574997, "required_final_county_share_points": 47.74917749294462, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.024044322225107804, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999973, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.396153505501104, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.396153505501104, "required_final_county_share_points": 47.96408881634432, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.003259695682198218, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.9999999999999996, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": 1.232653925994235, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "ABOVE", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.0020424594546039794, "criticality_score": 0.001656960977880771, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -1035.7844542385853, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -97.28731804271487, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 393.2817648312577, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Haley Stevens": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 47.71965950059066, "expected_final_county_share_points": 48.04302312426125, "current_county_share_points": 48.20073915580627, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.952313426584894, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.952313426584894, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.44713351090616, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 48.952313426584894, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 968.4880528916212, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.952313426584894, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.952313426584894, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.44713351090616, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 48.952313426584894, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 49.60750797680143, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 49.60750797680143, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.661930963323385, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.07865391656842785, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.999999999999999, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 50.262519206744194, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 50.262519206744194, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.87666831644984, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.10597932088248406, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -1.232653925994235, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.0020424594546039794, "criticality_score": 0.001656960977880771, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1131.8220078456247, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 2070.319144041495, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 2560.888226915468, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Mallory McMorrow": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 3.962446392960773, "expected_final_county_share_points": 4.018544438157991, "current_county_share_points": 4.045905465862672, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 33.8067514742809, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 33.8067514742809, "required_final_county_share_points": 13.802631772997884, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 33.8067514742809, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 22173.362529418006, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 33.8067514742809, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 33.8067514742809, "required_final_county_share_points": 13.802631772997884, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 33.8067514742809, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 34.44377800755872, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 34.44377800755872, "required_final_county_share_points": 14.011473065137785, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.159018308558073, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999906, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 35.07966717182443, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 35.07966717182443, "required_final_county_share_points": 14.219941484874868, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.213613509684069, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.999999999999993, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -29.84430508132013, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "WELL BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.0020424594546039794, "criticality_score": 6.84371590840752e-05, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1088.0647947379948, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 2026.5619309338651, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 2517.131013807838, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } } } }, { "cid": "26109", "county": "26109", "fips": null, "reporting": 0.0, "current_votes": 0, "current_candidate_votes": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 0, "Haley Stevens": 0, "Mallory McMorrow": 0 }, "current_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": null, "Haley Stevens": null, "Mallory McMorrow": null }, "estimated_remaining_votes": 2394.3909432300134, "estimated_final_votes": 2394.3909432300134, "turnout_disagreement_votes": 0.0, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 49.45326057381173, "Haley Stevens": 46.839178974492555, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.707560451695713 }, "remaining_sources": [ { "model": "market", "remaining_votes": 2394.3909432300134, "weight": 0.1780093144963334 } ], "share_sources": [ { "model": "v0", "weight": 0.03630604611298715, "source": "statewide raw" }, { "model": "v3", "weight": 0.06301781787712588, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "market", "weight": 0.18729675699179427, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "histgeo", "weight": 0.02760802595386354, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "latent", "weight": 0.03563066882913146, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "batchbias", "weight": 0.020512372723621893, "source": "statewide fallback" } ], "candidate_benchmarks": { "Abdul El-Sayed": { "opponent": "Haley Stevens", "expected_remaining_share_points": 49.45326057381173, "expected_final_county_share_points": 49.45326057381173, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.21753450149631, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.21753450149631, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.21753450149632, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 48.21753450149631, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": -914.7922460074215, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": false }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.21753450149631, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.21753450149631, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.21753450149632, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 48.21753450149631, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.874704590997396, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.874704590997396, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.874704590997396, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.024044322225107804, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999973, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 49.531670216098654, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 49.531670216098654, "required_final_county_share_points": 49.53167021609865, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.003259695682198218, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.9999999999999996, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": 1.2357260723154226, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "ABOVE", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.001950366475909103, "criticality_score": 0.00157831619774327, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -1085.8385517526865, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -103.02718136726328, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 410.70573694764585, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Haley Stevens": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 46.839178974492555, "expected_final_county_share_points": 46.839178974492555, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.07490504680796, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.07490504680796, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.074905046807956, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 48.07490504680796, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1011.0846855557257, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.07490504680796, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.07490504680796, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.074905046807956, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 48.07490504680796, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.73227317566207, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.73227317566207, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.73227317566208, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.07865391656842785, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.999999999999999, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 49.3898328994224, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 49.3898328994224, "required_final_county_share_points": 49.3898328994224, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.10597932088248406, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -1.2357260723154084, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.001950366475909103, "criticality_score": 0.001578316197743288, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1182.130991300991, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 2164.9423616864137, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 2678.6752800013232, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Mallory McMorrow": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 3.707560451695713, "expected_final_county_share_points": 3.707560451695713, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 33.27257907093374, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 33.27257907093374, "required_final_county_share_points": 33.27257907093374, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 33.27257907093374, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 23219.90890608179, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 33.27257907093374, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 33.27257907093374, "required_final_county_share_points": 33.27257907093374, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 33.27257907093374, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 33.937107256748334, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 33.937107256748334, "required_final_county_share_points": 33.937107256748334, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.159018308558073, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999906, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 34.60191950368675, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 34.60191950368675, "required_final_county_share_points": 34.60191950368675, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.213613509684069, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.999999999999993, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -29.565018619238025, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "WELL BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.001950366475909103, "criticality_score": 6.596872138074674e-05, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1138.999372778194, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 2121.810743163617, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 2635.5436614785267, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } } } }, { "cid": "fips:26109", "county": "Menominee", "fips": "26109", "reporting": 0.0, "current_votes": 0, "current_candidate_votes": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 0, "Haley Stevens": 0, "Mallory McMorrow": 0 }, "current_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": null, "Haley Stevens": null, "Mallory McMorrow": null }, "estimated_remaining_votes": 2394.3909432300134, "estimated_final_votes": 2394.3909432300134, "turnout_disagreement_votes": 0.0, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 49.158633168958325, "Haley Stevens": 46.97750573983265, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.8638610912090225 }, "remaining_sources": [ { "model": "v3", "remaining_votes": 2394.3909432300134, "weight": 0.1342208488636769 }, { "model": "histgeo", "remaining_votes": 2394.3909432300134, "weight": 0.05994207394479305 }, { "model": "latent", "remaining_votes": 2394.3909432300134, "weight": 0.07672787409296966 }, { "model": "batchbias", "remaining_votes": 2394.3909432300134, "weight": 0.045123489075924846 } ], "share_sources": [ { "model": "v0", "weight": 0.03630604611298715, "source": "statewide raw" }, { "model": "v3", "weight": 0.15004242351696637, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "market", "weight": 0.0786646379365536, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "histgeo", "weight": 0.06573339512824654, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "latent", "weight": 0.08483492578364633, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "batchbias", "weight": 0.04883898267529022, "source": "county remaining" } ], "candidate_benchmarks": { "Abdul El-Sayed": { "opponent": "Haley Stevens", "expected_remaining_share_points": 49.158633168958325, "expected_final_county_share_points": 49.15863316895833, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 47.924779857819296, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 47.924779857819296, "required_final_county_share_points": 47.92477985781929, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 47.924779857819296, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": -915.0868734122743, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": false }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 47.924779857819296, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 47.924779857819296, "required_final_county_share_points": 47.92477985781929, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 47.924779857819296, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.5809188097206, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.5809188097206, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.5809188097206, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.024044322225107804, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999973, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 49.23693351679498, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 49.23693351679498, "required_final_county_share_points": 49.23693351679498, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.003259695682198218, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.9999999999999996, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": 1.233853311139029, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "ABOVE", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.001950366475909103, "criticality_score": 0.001580711789887427, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -1086.1331791575399, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -103.3218087721167, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 410.4111095427924, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Haley Stevens": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 46.97750573983265, "expected_final_county_share_points": 46.97750573983265, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.21135905097168, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.21135905097168, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.21135905097168, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 48.21135905097168, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1011.2230123210651, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.21135905097168, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.21135905097168, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.21135905097168, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 48.21135905097168, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.86761577390726, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.86761577390726, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.86761577390726, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.07865391656842785, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.999999999999999, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 49.52398377784789, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 49.52398377784789, "required_final_county_share_points": 49.52398377784789, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.10597932088248406, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -1.233853311139029, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.001950366475909103, "criticality_score": 0.001580711789887427, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1182.269318066331, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 2165.080688451754, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 2678.8136067666637, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Mallory McMorrow": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 3.8638610912090225, "expected_final_county_share_points": 3.8638610912090225, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 33.76927744870776, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 33.76927744870776, "required_final_county_share_points": 33.76927744870776, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 33.76927744870776, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 23220.06520672131, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 33.76927744870776, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 33.76927744870776, "required_final_county_share_points": 33.76927744870776, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 33.76927744870776, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 34.42351003107981, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 34.42351003107981, "required_final_county_share_points": 34.42351003107981, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.159018308558073, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999906, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 35.07725426483747, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 35.07725426483747, "required_final_county_share_points": 35.07725426483747, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.213613509684069, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.999999999999993, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -29.905416357498737, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "WELL BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.001950366475909103, "criticality_score": 6.521783387309542e-05, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1139.1556734177072, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 2121.9670438031303, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 2635.69996211804, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } } } }, { "cid": "26129", "county": "26129", "fips": null, "reporting": 0.0, "current_votes": 0, "current_candidate_votes": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 0, "Haley Stevens": 0, "Mallory McMorrow": 0 }, "current_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": null, "Haley Stevens": null, "Mallory McMorrow": null }, "estimated_remaining_votes": 2287.5117442761625, "estimated_final_votes": 2287.5117442761625, "turnout_disagreement_votes": 0.0, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 47.866155366725685, "Haley Stevens": 48.07259662711275, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.061248006161554 }, "remaining_sources": [ { "model": "market", "remaining_votes": 2287.5117442761625, "weight": 0.1780093144963334 } ], "share_sources": [ { "model": "v0", "weight": 0.03630604611298715, "source": "statewide raw" }, { "model": "v3", "weight": 0.06301781787712588, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "market", "weight": 0.18729675699179427, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "histgeo", "weight": 0.02760802595386354, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "latent", "weight": 0.03563066882913146, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "batchbias", "weight": 0.020512372723621893, "source": "statewide fallback" } ], "candidate_benchmarks": { "Abdul El-Sayed": { "opponent": "Haley Stevens", "expected_remaining_share_points": 47.866155366725685, "expected_final_county_share_points": 47.86615536672569, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 46.63499237555791, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 46.63499237555791, "required_final_county_share_points": 46.6349923755579, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 46.63499237555791, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": -961.4317045395243, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": false }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 46.63499237555791, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 46.63499237555791, "required_final_county_share_points": 46.6349923755579, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 46.63499237555791, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 47.28950516908663, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 47.28950516908663, "required_final_county_share_points": 47.289505169086624, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.024044322225107804, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999973, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 47.94433799359388, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 47.94433799359388, "required_final_county_share_points": 47.94433799359388, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.003259695682198218, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.9999999999999996, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": 1.2311629911677784, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "ABOVE", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.0018633073399726766, "criticality_score": 0.0015134530142148757, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -1140.46979095556, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -111.73861611345214, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 425.99739767106996, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Haley Stevens": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 48.07259662711275, "expected_final_county_share_points": 48.07259662711275, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 49.30375961828052, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 49.30375961828052, "required_final_county_share_points": 49.30375961828052, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 49.30375961828052, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1057.3704565333628, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 49.30375961828052, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 49.30375961828052, "required_final_county_share_points": 49.30375961828052, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 49.30375961828052, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 49.95794612902271, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 49.95794612902271, "required_final_county_share_points": 49.95794612902271, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.07865391656842785, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.999999999999999, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 50.61180010634276, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 50.61180010634276, "required_final_county_share_points": 50.61180010634276, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.10597932088248406, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -1.2311629911677713, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.0018633073399726766, "criticality_score": 0.0015134530142148844, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1236.4085429493985, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 2265.139717791506, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 2802.8757315760286, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Mallory McMorrow": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 4.061248006161554, "expected_final_county_share_points": 4.061248006161554, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 33.98016158619869, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 33.98016158619869, "required_final_county_share_points": 33.98016158619869, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 33.98016158619869, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 24304.99101471697, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 33.98016158619869, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 33.98016158619869, "required_final_county_share_points": 33.98016158619869, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 33.98016158619869, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 34.60618224899911, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 34.60618224899911, "required_final_county_share_points": 34.60618224899911, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.159018308558073, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999906, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 35.23057058958013, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 35.23057058958013, "required_final_county_share_points": 35.23057058958013, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.213613509684069, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.999999999999993, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -29.918913580037135, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "WELL BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.0018633073399726766, "criticality_score": 6.22785762253057e-05, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1192.3971943284473, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 2221.1283691705544, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 2758.864382955077, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } } } }, { "cid": "fips:26129", "county": "Ogemaw", "fips": "26129", "reporting": 0.0, "current_votes": 0, "current_candidate_votes": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 0, "Haley Stevens": 0, "Mallory McMorrow": 0 }, "current_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": null, "Haley Stevens": null, "Mallory McMorrow": null }, "estimated_remaining_votes": 2287.5117442761625, "estimated_final_votes": 2287.5117442761625, "turnout_disagreement_votes": 0.0, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 49.17026802919363, "Haley Stevens": 46.960971292186954, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.868760678619411 }, "remaining_sources": [ { "model": "v3", "remaining_votes": 2287.5117442761625, "weight": 0.1342208488636769 }, { "model": "histgeo", "remaining_votes": 2287.5117442761625, "weight": 0.05994207394479305 }, { "model": "latent", "remaining_votes": 2287.5117442761625, "weight": 0.07672787409296966 }, { "model": "batchbias", "remaining_votes": 2287.5117442761625, "weight": 0.045123489075924846 } ], "share_sources": [ { "model": "v0", "weight": 0.03630604611298715, "source": "statewide raw" }, { "model": "v3", "weight": 0.15004242351696637, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "market", "weight": 0.0786646379365536, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "histgeo", "weight": 0.06573339512824654, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "latent", "weight": 0.08483492578364633, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "batchbias", "weight": 0.04883898267529022, "source": "county remaining" } ], "candidate_benchmarks": { "Abdul El-Sayed": { "opponent": "Haley Stevens", "expected_remaining_share_points": 49.17026802919363, "expected_final_county_share_points": 49.17026802919363, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 47.93648486498287, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 47.93648486498287, "required_final_county_share_points": 47.93648486498287, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 47.93648486498287, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": -960.1275918770546, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": false }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 47.93648486498287, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 47.93648486498287, "required_final_county_share_points": 47.93648486498287, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 47.93648486498287, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.592588835124054, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.592588835124054, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.592588835124054, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.024044322225107804, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999973, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 49.248563296415696, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 49.248563296415696, "required_final_county_share_points": 49.248563296415696, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.003259695682198218, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.9999999999999996, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": 1.233783164210756, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "ABOVE", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.0018633073399726766, "criticality_score": 0.0015102389090911477, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -1139.165678293092, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -110.43450345098418, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 427.30151033353786, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Haley Stevens": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 46.960971292186954, "expected_final_county_share_points": 46.960971292186954, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.19475445639772, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.19475445639772, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.19475445639772, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 48.19475445639772, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1056.258831198435, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.19475445639772, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.19475445639772, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.19475445639772, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 48.19475445639772, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.850981464921446, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.850981464921446, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.85098146492145, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.07865391656842785, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.999999999999999, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 49.50732502491718, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 49.50732502491718, "required_final_county_share_points": 49.50732502491717, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.10597932088248406, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -1.233783164210763, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.0018633073399726766, "criticality_score": 0.001510238909091139, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1235.2969176144727, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 2264.02809245658, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 2801.7641062411026, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Mallory McMorrow": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 3.868760678619411, "expected_final_county_share_points": 3.868760678619411, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 33.792447477993186, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 33.792447477993186, "required_final_county_share_points": 33.792447477993186, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 33.792447477993186, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 24304.79852738943, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 33.792447477993186, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 33.792447477993186, "required_final_county_share_points": 33.792447477993186, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 33.792447477993186, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 34.44669097347726, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 34.44669097347726, "required_final_county_share_points": 34.44669097347726, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.159018308558073, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999906, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 35.10042949443576, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 35.10042949443576, "required_final_county_share_points": 35.10042949443576, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.213613509684069, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.999999999999993, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -29.923686799373776, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "WELL BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.0018633073399726766, "criticality_score": 6.226864197802226e-05, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1192.204707000905, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 2220.9358818430123, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 2758.671895627535, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } } } }, { "cid": "26035", "county": "26035", "fips": null, "reporting": 0.0, "current_votes": 0, "current_candidate_votes": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 0, "Haley Stevens": 0, "Mallory McMorrow": 0 }, "current_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": null, "Haley Stevens": null, "Mallory McMorrow": null }, "estimated_remaining_votes": 2166.541410974669, "estimated_final_votes": 2166.541410974669, "turnout_disagreement_votes": 0.0, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 45.445935915957946, "Haley Stevens": 50.11140943147776, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.442654652564292 }, "remaining_sources": [ { "model": "market", "remaining_votes": 2166.541410974669, "weight": 0.1780093144963334 } ], "share_sources": [ { "model": "v0", "weight": 0.03630604611298715, "source": "statewide raw" }, { "model": "v3", "weight": 0.06301781787712588, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "market", "weight": 0.18729675699179427, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "histgeo", "weight": 0.02760802595386354, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "latent", "weight": 0.03563066882913146, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "batchbias", "weight": 0.020512372723621893, "source": "statewide fallback" } ], "candidate_benchmarks": { "Abdul El-Sayed": { "opponent": "Haley Stevens", "expected_remaining_share_points": 45.445935915957946, "expected_final_county_share_points": 45.44593591595794, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 44.224048574337296, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 44.224048574337296, "required_final_county_share_points": 44.224048574337296, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 44.224048574337296, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": -1020.2067658109314, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": false }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 44.224048574337296, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 44.224048574337296, "required_final_county_share_points": 44.224048574337296, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 44.224048574337296, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 44.873265984696204, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 44.873265984696204, "required_final_county_share_points": 44.873265984696204, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.024044322225107804, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999973, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 45.523628367667136, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 45.523628367667136, "required_final_county_share_points": 45.523628367667136, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.003259695682198218, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.9999999999999996, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": 1.2218873416206506, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "ABOVE", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.0017647701803171578, "criticality_score": 0.001444298602829009, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -1209.2415672113657, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -123.07047801179256, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 444.69039681910385, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Haley Stevens": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 50.11140943147776, "expected_final_county_share_points": 50.11140943147776, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 51.33329677309841, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 51.33329677309841, "required_final_county_share_points": 51.33329677309841, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 51.33329677309841, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1115.764111158367, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 51.33329677309841, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 51.33329677309841, "required_final_county_share_points": 51.33329677309841, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 51.33329677309841, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 51.981365810176314, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 51.981365810176314, "required_final_county_share_points": 51.981365810176314, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.07865391656842785, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.999999999999999, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 52.62828309666362, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 52.62828309666362, "required_final_county_share_points": 52.62828309666362, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.10597932088248406, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -1.2218873416206506, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.0017647701803171578, "criticality_score": 0.001444298602829009, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1304.7989125588015, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 2390.970001758374, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 2958.730876589271, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Mallory McMorrow": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 4.442654652564292, "expected_final_county_share_points": 4.442654652564292, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 34.20747998892426, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 34.20747998892426, "required_final_county_share_points": 34.20747998892426, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 34.20747998892426, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 25662.231588016784, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 34.20747998892426, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 34.20747998892426, "required_final_county_share_points": 34.20747998892426, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 34.20747998892426, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 34.77966281710158, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 34.77966281710158, "required_final_county_share_points": 34.77966281710158, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.159018308558073, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999906, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 35.348458241679495, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 35.348458241679495, "required_final_county_share_points": 35.348458241679495, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.213613509684069, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.999999999999993, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -29.76482533635997, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "WELL BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.0017647701803171578, "criticality_score": 5.9290459808657386e-05, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1259.130157779888, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 2345.3012469794608, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 2913.0621218103574, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } } } }, { "cid": "fips:26035", "county": "Clare", "fips": "26035", "reporting": 24.98, "current_votes": 650, "current_candidate_votes": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 235, "Haley Stevens": 378, "Mallory McMorrow": 37 }, "current_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 36.15384615384615, "Haley Stevens": 58.15384615384615, "Mallory McMorrow": 5.6923076923076925 }, "estimated_remaining_votes": 2166.5414109746685, "estimated_final_votes": 2816.5414109746685, "turnout_disagreement_votes": 4.547473508864641e-13, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 42.38135594609147, "Haley Stevens": 52.81051457809568, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.808129475812841 }, "remaining_sources": [ { "model": "v3", "remaining_votes": 2166.541410974669, "weight": 0.1342208488636769 }, { "model": "histgeo", "remaining_votes": 2166.541410974669, "weight": 0.05994207394479305 }, { "model": "latent", "remaining_votes": 2166.541410974669, "weight": 0.07672787409296966 }, { "model": "batchbias", "remaining_votes": 2166.541410974669, "weight": 0.045123489075924846 } ], "share_sources": [ { "model": "v0", "weight": 0.03630604611298715, "source": "statewide raw" }, { "model": "v1", "weight": 0.14599140026529184, "source": "county live" }, { "model": "v3", "weight": 0.15004242351696637, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "market", "weight": 0.0786646379365536, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "histgeo", "weight": 0.06573339512824654, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "latent", "weight": 0.08483492578364633, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "batchbias", "weight": 0.04883898267529022, "source": "county remaining" } ], "candidate_benchmarks": { "Abdul El-Sayed": { "opponent": "Haley Stevens", "expected_remaining_share_points": 42.38135594609147, "expected_final_county_share_points": 40.94417439101585, "current_county_share_points": 36.15384615384615, "recent_batch_votes": 253, "recent_batch_share_points": 37.15415019762846, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 41.177752821799324, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 41.177752821799324, "required_final_county_share_points": 40.01833818601753, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 41.177752821799324, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": -1023.2713457807967, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": false }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 41.177752821799324, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 41.177752821799324, "required_final_county_share_points": 40.01833818601753, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 41.177752821799324, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 41.81678908809404, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 41.81678908809404, "required_final_county_share_points": 40.50989798650455, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.024044322225107804, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999973, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 42.45801255709152, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 42.45801255709152, "required_final_county_share_points": 41.0031402281626, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.003259695682198218, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.9999999999999996, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": 1.2036031242921439, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -4.023602624170863, "status": "ABOVE", "recent_status": "WELL BELOW", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.0017647701803171576, "criticality_score": 0.001466239281619549, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -1212.3061471812323, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -126.13505798165906, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 441.6258168492374, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Haley Stevens": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 52.81051457809568, "expected_final_county_share_points": 54.04364593228227, "current_county_share_points": 58.15384615384615, "recent_batch_votes": 253, "recent_batch_share_points": 55.73122529644269, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 54.01411770238782, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 54.01411770238782, "required_final_county_share_points": 54.9694821372806, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 54.01411770238782, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1118.463216304984, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 54.01411770238782, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 54.01411770238782, "required_final_county_share_points": 54.9694821372806, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 54.01411770238782, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 54.650971632401145, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 54.650971632401145, "required_final_county_share_points": 55.4593632399477, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.07865391656842785, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.999999999999999, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 55.28564809133886, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 55.28564809133886, "required_final_county_share_points": 55.94756938721094, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.10597932088248406, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -1.2036031242921439, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": 1.7171075940548661, "status": "BELOW", "recent_status": "ABOVE", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.0017647701803171576, "criticality_score": 0.001466239281619549, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1307.4980177054194, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 2393.669106904992, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 2961.429981735889, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Mallory McMorrow": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 4.808129475812841, "expected_final_county_share_points": 5.012179676701871, "current_county_share_points": 5.6923076923076925, "recent_batch_votes": 253, "recent_batch_share_points": 7.114624505928854, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 33.82748144262121, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 33.82748144262121, "required_final_county_share_points": 27.334460297451812, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 33.82748144262121, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 25662.597062840036, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 33.82748144262121, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 33.82748144262121, "required_final_county_share_points": 27.334460297451812, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 33.82748144262121, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 34.3363603894186, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 34.3363603894186, "required_final_county_share_points": 27.725900418699023, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.159018308558073, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999906, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 34.84055919859703, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 34.84055919859703, "required_final_county_share_points": 28.11374048211607, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.213613509684069, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.999999999999993, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -29.019351966808372, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -26.712856936692358, "status": "WELL BELOW", "recent_status": "WELL BELOW", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.0017647701803171576, "criticality_score": 6.081356269897614e-05, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1259.4956326031365, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 2345.666721802709, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 2913.4275966336063, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } } } }, { "cid": "26015", "county": "26015", "fips": null, "reporting": 0.0, "current_votes": 0, "current_candidate_votes": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 0, "Haley Stevens": 0, "Mallory McMorrow": 0 }, "current_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": null, "Haley Stevens": null, "Mallory McMorrow": null }, "estimated_remaining_votes": 2084.356984925492, "estimated_final_votes": 2084.356984925492, "turnout_disagreement_votes": 0.0, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 46.64391631668367, "Haley Stevens": 48.84379756353746, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.512286119778873 }, "remaining_sources": [ { "model": "market", "remaining_votes": 2084.356984925492, "weight": 0.1780093144963334 } ], "share_sources": [ { "model": "v0", "weight": 0.03630604611298715, "source": "statewide raw" }, { "model": "v3", "weight": 0.06301781787712588, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "market", "weight": 0.18729675699179427, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "histgeo", "weight": 0.02760802595386354, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "latent", "weight": 0.03563066882913146, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "batchbias", "weight": 0.020512372723621893, "source": "statewide fallback" } ], "candidate_benchmarks": { "Abdul El-Sayed": { "opponent": "Haley Stevens", "expected_remaining_share_points": 46.64391631668367, "expected_final_county_share_points": 46.64391631668368, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 45.41984231326979, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 45.41984231326979, "required_final_county_share_points": 45.41984231326979, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 45.41984231326979, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": -1061.0265665736888, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": false }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 45.41984231326979, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 45.41984231326979, "required_final_county_share_points": 45.41984231326979, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 45.41984231326979, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 46.07042309822127, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 46.07042309822127, "required_final_county_share_points": 46.07042309822127, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.024044322225107804, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999973, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 46.72169308870616, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 46.72169308870616, "required_final_county_share_points": 46.72169308870616, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.003259695682198218, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.9999999999999996, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": 1.2240740034138824, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "ABOVE", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.0016978263297895927, "criticality_score": 0.0013870291543276291, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -1257.5148496803638, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -128.51695672180443, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 461.63024730731416, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Haley Stevens": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 48.84379756353746, "expected_final_county_share_points": 48.84379756353745, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 50.067871566951325, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 50.067871566951325, "required_final_county_share_points": 50.067871566951325, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 50.067871566951325, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1156.5142804539098, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 50.067871566951325, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 50.067871566951325, "required_final_county_share_points": 50.067871566951325, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 50.067871566951325, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 50.71775779792909, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 50.71775779792909, "required_final_county_share_points": 50.71775779792909, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.07865391656842785, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.999999999999999, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 51.36694414022603, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 51.36694414022603, "required_final_county_share_points": 51.36694414022603, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.10597932088248406, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -1.2240740034138682, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.0016978263297895927, "criticality_score": 0.0013870291543276452, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1353.002563560585, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 2482.000456519144, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 3072.147660548263, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Mallory McMorrow": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 4.512286119778873, "expected_final_county_share_points": 4.5122861197788735, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 34.96102339891444, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 34.96102339891444, "required_final_county_share_points": 34.96102339891444, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 34.96102339891444, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 26673.966050618885, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 34.96102339891444, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 34.96102339891444, "required_final_county_share_points": 34.96102339891444, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 34.96102339891444, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 35.55008673250949, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 35.55008673250949, "required_final_county_share_points": 35.55008673250949, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.159018308558073, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999906, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 36.135803215185874, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 36.135803215185874, "required_final_county_share_points": 36.135803215185874, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.213613509684069, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.999999999999993, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -30.44873727913557, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "WELL BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.0016978263297895927, "criticality_score": 5.576015564208623e-05, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1308.6710521168263, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 2437.668945075385, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 3027.8161491045043, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } } } }, { "cid": "fips:26015", "county": "Barry", "fips": "26015", "reporting": 51.57000000000001, "current_votes": 3040, "current_candidate_votes": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 1226, "Haley Stevens": 1638, "Mallory McMorrow": 176 }, "current_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 40.328947368421055, "Haley Stevens": 53.881578947368425, "Mallory McMorrow": 5.7894736842105265 }, "estimated_remaining_votes": 2084.3569849254914, "estimated_final_votes": 5124.356984925491, "turnout_disagreement_votes": 4.547473508864641e-13, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 43.49244399419316, "Haley Stevens": 51.41126400606495, "Mallory McMorrow": 5.096291999741883 }, "remaining_sources": [ { "model": "v3", "remaining_votes": 2084.356984925492, "weight": 0.1342208488636769 }, { "model": "histgeo", "remaining_votes": 2084.356984925492, "weight": 0.05994207394479305 }, { "model": "latent", "remaining_votes": 2084.356984925492, "weight": 0.07672787409296966 }, { "model": "batchbias", "remaining_votes": 2084.356984925492, "weight": 0.045123489075924846 } ], "share_sources": [ { "model": "v0", "weight": 0.03630604611298715, "source": "statewide raw" }, { "model": "v1", "weight": 0.14599140026529184, "source": "county live" }, { "model": "v3", "weight": 0.15004242351696637, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "market", "weight": 0.0786646379365536, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "histgeo", "weight": 0.06573339512824654, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "latent", "weight": 0.08483492578364633, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "batchbias", "weight": 0.04883898267529022, "source": "county remaining" } ], "candidate_benchmarks": { "Abdul El-Sayed": { "opponent": "Haley Stevens", "expected_remaining_share_points": 43.49244399419316, "expected_final_county_share_points": 41.6157149195721, "current_county_share_points": 40.328947368421055, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 42.28555517742893, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 42.28555517742893, "required_final_county_share_points": 41.12480705685856, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 42.28555517742893, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": -1064.1780388961795, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": false }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 42.28555517742893, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 42.28555517742893, "required_final_county_share_points": 41.12480705685856, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 42.28555517742893, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 42.92653693266351, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 42.92653693266351, "required_final_county_share_points": 41.38552948557757, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.024044322225107804, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999973, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 43.56925521223996, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 43.56925521223996, "required_final_county_share_points": 41.64695825397044, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.003259695682198218, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.9999999999999996, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": 1.206888816764227, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "ABOVE", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.0016978263297895923, "criticality_score": 0.0014067794035424166, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -1260.6663220028547, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -131.66842904429498, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 458.47877498482376, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Haley Stevens": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 51.41126400606495, "expected_final_county_share_points": 52.876766398590355, "current_county_share_points": 53.881578947368425, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 52.61815282282918, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 52.61815282282918, "required_final_county_share_points": 53.3676742613039, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 52.61815282282918, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1159.0817468964374, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 52.61815282282918, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 52.61815282282918, "required_final_county_share_points": 53.3676742613039, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 52.61815282282918, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 53.257398750735874, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 53.257398750735874, "required_final_county_share_points": 53.62769063386287, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.07865391656842785, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.999999999999999, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 53.89490956766841, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 53.89490956766841, "required_final_county_share_points": 53.88700124164211, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.10597932088248406, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -1.2068888167642342, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.0016978263297895923, "criticality_score": 0.0014067794035424082, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1355.5700300031128, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 2484.567922961672, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 3074.715126990791, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Mallory McMorrow": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 5.096291999741883, "expected_final_county_share_points": 5.507518681837553, "current_county_share_points": 5.7894736842105265, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 35.14709742579091, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 35.14709742579091, "required_final_county_share_points": 17.730829114089357, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 35.14709742579091, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 26674.550056498854, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 35.14709742579091, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 35.14709742579091, "required_final_county_share_points": 17.730829114089357, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 35.14709742579091, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 35.66348316440048, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 35.66348316440048, "required_final_county_share_points": 17.940871510501832, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.159018308558073, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999906, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 36.17476739848637, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 36.17476739848637, "required_final_county_share_points": 18.148838845278508, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.213613509684069, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.999999999999993, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -30.050805426049028, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "WELL BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.0016978263297895923, "criticality_score": 5.6498529930178197e-05, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1309.2550579967897, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 2438.252950955349, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 3028.400154984468, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } } } }, { "cid": "26117", "county": "26117", "fips": null, "reporting": 0.0, "current_votes": 0, "current_candidate_votes": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 0, "Haley Stevens": 0, "Mallory McMorrow": 0 }, "current_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": null, "Haley Stevens": null, "Mallory McMorrow": null }, "estimated_remaining_votes": 2083.0147443372043, "estimated_final_votes": 2083.0147443372043, "turnout_disagreement_votes": 0.0, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 45.958200225979986, "Haley Stevens": 50.22991264466877, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.8118871293512493 }, "remaining_sources": [ { "model": "market", "remaining_votes": 2083.0147443372043, "weight": 0.1780093144963334 } ], "share_sources": [ { "model": "v0", "weight": 0.03630604611298715, "source": "statewide raw" }, { "model": "v3", "weight": 0.06301781787712588, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "market", "weight": 0.18729675699179427, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "histgeo", "weight": 0.02760802595386354, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "latent", "weight": 0.03563066882913146, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "batchbias", "weight": 0.020512372723621893, "source": "statewide fallback" } ], "candidate_benchmarks": { "Abdul El-Sayed": { "opponent": "Haley Stevens", "expected_remaining_share_points": 45.958200225979986, "expected_final_county_share_points": 45.95820022597999, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 44.727600691994006, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 44.727600691994006, "required_final_county_share_points": 44.727600691994006, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 44.727600691994006, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": -1062.4260367482882, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": false }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 44.727600691994006, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 44.727600691994006, "required_final_county_share_points": 44.727600691994006, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 44.727600691994006, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 45.38148176988802, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 45.38148176988802, "required_final_county_share_points": 45.38148176988802, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.024044322225107804, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999973, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 46.03643721715968, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 46.03643721715968, "required_final_county_share_points": 46.03643721715968, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.003259695682198218, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.9999999999999996, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": 1.2305995339859805, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "ABOVE", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.0016967329991230188, "criticality_score": 0.0013787856668750766, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -1259.0409318001853, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -129.31554192873077, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 461.21193762770497, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Haley Stevens": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 50.22991264466877, "expected_final_county_share_points": 50.22991264466878, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 51.46051217865475, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 51.46051217865475, "required_final_county_share_points": 51.46051217865475, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 51.46051217865475, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1158.6141496189368, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 51.46051217865475, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 51.46051217865475, "required_final_county_share_points": 51.46051217865475, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 51.46051217865475, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 52.11331505963304, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 52.11331505963304, "required_final_county_share_points": 52.11331505963304, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.07865391656842785, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.999999999999999, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 52.76503593863689, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 52.76503593863689, "required_final_county_share_points": 52.76503593863689, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.10597932088248406, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -1.2305995339859805, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.0016967329991230188, "criticality_score": 0.0013787856668750766, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1355.229044670834, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 2484.954434542288, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 3075.481914098724, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Mallory McMorrow": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 3.8118871293512493, "expected_final_county_share_points": 3.8118871293512493, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 32.31217232095501, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 32.31217232095501, "required_final_county_share_points": 32.31217232095501, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 32.31217232095501, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 26690.450754810023, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 32.31217232095501, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 32.31217232095501, "required_final_county_share_points": 32.31217232095501, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 32.31217232095501, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 32.9164985925134, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 32.9164985925134, "required_final_county_share_points": 32.9164985925134, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.159018308558073, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999906, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 33.51957975430659, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 33.51957975430659, "required_final_county_share_points": 33.51957975430659, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.213613509684069, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.999999999999993, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -28.50028519160376, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "WELL BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.0016967329991230188, "criticality_score": 5.9533895458101583e-05, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1308.8110191555165, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 2438.5364090269704, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 3029.0638885834064, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } } } }, { "cid": "fips:26117", "county": "Montcalm", "fips": "26117", "reporting": 63.12, "current_votes": 3207, "current_candidate_votes": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 1280, "Haley Stevens": 1803, "Mallory McMorrow": 124 }, "current_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 39.91269098846274, "Haley Stevens": 56.22076707202993, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.8665419395073277 }, "estimated_remaining_votes": 2083.0147443372043, "estimated_final_votes": 5290.014744337204, "turnout_disagreement_votes": 0.0, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 42.80737331678564, "Haley Stevens": 53.346561235940285, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.846065447274072 }, "remaining_sources": [ { "model": "v3", "remaining_votes": 2083.0147443372043, "weight": 0.1342208488636769 }, { "model": "histgeo", "remaining_votes": 2083.0147443372043, "weight": 0.05994207394479305 }, { "model": "latent", "remaining_votes": 2083.0147443372043, "weight": 0.07672787409296966 }, { "model": "batchbias", "remaining_votes": 2083.0147443372043, "weight": 0.045123489075924846 } ], "share_sources": [ { "model": "v0", "weight": 0.03630604611298715, "source": "statewide raw" }, { "model": "v1", "weight": 0.14599140026529184, "source": "county live" }, { "model": "v3", "weight": 0.15004242351696637, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "market", "weight": 0.0786646379365536, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "histgeo", "weight": 0.06573339512824654, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "latent", "weight": 0.08483492578364633, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "batchbias", "weight": 0.04883898267529022, "source": "county remaining" } ], "candidate_benchmarks": { "Abdul El-Sayed": { "opponent": "Haley Stevens", "expected_remaining_share_points": 42.80737331678564, "expected_final_county_share_points": 41.05251124634076, "current_county_share_points": 39.91269098846274, "recent_batch_votes": 860, "recent_batch_share_points": 41.27906976744186, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 41.59162035676937, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 41.59162035676937, "required_final_county_share_points": 40.573792100255886, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 41.59162035676937, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": -1065.5768636574817, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": false }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 41.59162035676937, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 41.59162035676937, "required_final_county_share_points": 40.573792100255886, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 41.59162035676937, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 42.237107035777385, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 42.237107035777385, "required_final_county_share_points": 40.82796119705968, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.024044322225107804, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999973, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 42.88480384344459, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 42.88480384344459, "required_final_county_share_points": 41.08300056186961, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.003259695682198218, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.9999999999999996, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": 1.2157529600162746, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -0.31255058932750757, "status": "ABOVE", "recent_status": "ON BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.0016967329991230188, "criticality_score": 0.0013956231692829318, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -1262.1917587093794, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -132.46636883792513, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 458.06111071851063, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Haley Stevens": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 53.346561235940285, "expected_final_county_share_points": 55.08900970949258, "current_county_share_points": 56.22076707202993, "recent_batch_votes": 860, "recent_batch_share_points": 56.04651162790698, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 54.56231419595655, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 54.56231419595655, "required_final_county_share_points": 55.56772885557746, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 54.56231419595655, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1161.7307982102077, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 54.56231419595655, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 54.56231419595655, "required_final_county_share_points": 55.56772885557746, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 54.56231419595655, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 55.20559567050708, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 55.20559567050708, "required_final_county_share_points": 55.82102962334603, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.07865391656842785, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.999999999999999, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 55.84667686351869, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 55.84667686351869, "required_final_county_share_points": 56.07346400054507, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.10597932088248406, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -1.2157529600162675, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": 1.4841974319504274, "status": "BELOW", "recent_status": "ABOVE", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.0016967329991230188, "criticality_score": 0.00139562316928294, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1358.3456932621054, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 2488.0710831335596, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 3078.5985626899956, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Mallory McMorrow": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 3.846065447274072, "expected_final_county_share_points": 3.858479044166661, "current_county_share_points": 3.8665419395073277, "recent_batch_votes": 860, "recent_batch_share_points": 2.6744186046511627, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 31.12770222751637, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 31.12770222751637, "required_final_county_share_points": 14.60099194996329, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 31.12770222751637, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 26690.484933127955, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 31.12770222751637, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 31.12770222751637, "required_final_county_share_points": 14.60099194996329, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 31.12770222751637, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 31.679501030689057, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 31.679501030689057, "required_final_county_share_points": 14.81827018045343, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.159018308558073, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999906, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 32.22911009206892, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 32.22911009206892, "required_final_county_share_points": 15.034686170541377, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.213613509684069, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.999999999999993, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -27.281636780242298, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -28.453283622865207, "status": "WELL BELOW", "recent_status": "WELL BELOW", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.0016967329991230188, "criticality_score": 6.219322589734843e-05, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1308.8451974734392, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 2438.5705873448933, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 3029.0980669013293, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } } } }, { "cid": "fips:26007", "county": "Alpena", "fips": "26007", "reporting": 58.050000000000004, "current_votes": 2009, "current_candidate_votes": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 978, "Haley Stevens": 912, "Mallory McMorrow": 119 }, "current_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 48.680935788949725, "Haley Stevens": 45.39571926331508, "Mallory McMorrow": 5.923344947735192 }, "estimated_remaining_votes": 1885.4507611674164, "estimated_final_votes": 3894.450761167416, "turnout_disagreement_votes": 2.2737367544323206e-13, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 48.87476345856507, "Haley Stevens": 45.88735194564049, "Mallory McMorrow": 5.23788459579443 }, "remaining_sources": [ { "model": "v3", "remaining_votes": 1885.4507611674162, "weight": 0.1342208488636769 }, { "model": "histgeo", "remaining_votes": 1885.4507611674162, "weight": 0.05994207394479305 }, { "model": "latent", "remaining_votes": 1885.4507611674162, "weight": 0.07672787409296966 }, { "model": "batchbias", "remaining_votes": 1885.4507611674162, "weight": 0.045123489075924846 } ], "share_sources": [ { "model": "v0", "weight": 0.03630604611298715, "source": "statewide raw" }, { "model": "v1", "weight": 0.14599140026529184, "source": "county live" }, { "model": "v3", "weight": 0.15004242351696637, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "market", "weight": 0.0786646379365536, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "histgeo", "weight": 0.06573339512824654, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "latent", "weight": 0.08483492578364633, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "batchbias", "weight": 0.04883898267529022, "source": "county remaining" } ], "candidate_benchmarks": { "Abdul El-Sayed": { "opponent": "Haley Stevens", "expected_remaining_share_points": 48.87476345856507, "expected_final_county_share_points": 48.774775087383176, "current_county_share_points": 48.680935788949725, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 47.65885199838829, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 47.65885199838829, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.18610640758832, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 47.65885199838829, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": -1175.6497669931387, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": false }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 47.65885199838829, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 47.65885199838829, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.18610640758832, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 47.65885199838829, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.30551854728727, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.30551854728727, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.49918211751913, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.024044322225107804, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999973, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.95190659218088, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.95190659218088, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.81212299313797, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.003259695682198218, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.9999999999999996, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": 1.2159114601767769, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "ABOVE", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.001535805991480053, "criticality_score": 0.0012630903168366944, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -1392.8666436066842, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -144.76476122324732, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 507.6402085521047, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Haley Stevens": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 45.88735194564049, "expected_final_county_share_points": 45.633737220647625, "current_county_share_points": 45.39571926331508, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 47.103263405817266, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 47.103263405817266, "required_final_county_share_points": 46.22240590044248, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 47.103263405817266, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1270.4118823973442, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 47.103263405817266, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 47.103263405817266, "required_final_county_share_points": 46.22240590044248, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 47.103263405817266, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 47.750202221307795, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 47.750202221307795, "required_final_county_share_points": 46.53561342491756, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.07865391656842785, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.999999999999999, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.39740704390426, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.39740704390426, "required_final_county_share_points": 46.84894973348344, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.10597932088248406, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -1.2159114601767769, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.001535805991480053, "criticality_score": 0.0012630903168366944, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1487.6287590108896, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 2735.730641394326, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 3388.135611169678, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Mallory McMorrow": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 5.23788459579443, "expected_final_county_share_points": 5.591487691969201, "current_county_share_points": 5.923344947735192, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 38.15721357611214, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 38.15721357611214, "required_final_county_share_points": 21.528978673227606, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 38.15721357611214, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 29488.194100202436, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 38.15721357611214, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 38.15721357611214, "required_final_county_share_points": 21.528978673227606, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 38.15721357611214, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 38.75531521341979, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 38.75531521341979, "required_final_county_share_points": 21.818542274483445, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.159018308558073, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999906, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 39.348650337640095, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 39.348650337640095, "required_final_county_share_points": 22.105798226656066, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.213613509684069, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.999999999999993, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -32.919328980317715, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "WELL BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.001535805991480053, "criticality_score": 4.665362384507603e-05, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1446.9792916610436, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 2695.08117404448, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 3347.4861438198323, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } } } }, { "cid": "26007", "county": "26007", "fips": null, "reporting": 0.0, "current_votes": 0, "current_candidate_votes": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 0, "Haley Stevens": 0, "Mallory McMorrow": 0 }, "current_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": null, "Haley Stevens": null, "Mallory McMorrow": null }, "estimated_remaining_votes": 1885.4507611674164, "estimated_final_votes": 1885.4507611674164, "turnout_disagreement_votes": 2.2737367544323206e-13, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 48.74909884299047, "Haley Stevens": 46.39513307510219, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.85576808190735 }, "remaining_sources": [ { "model": "market", "remaining_votes": 1885.4507611674162, "weight": 0.1780093144963334 } ], "share_sources": [ { "model": "v0", "weight": 0.03630604611298715, "source": "statewide raw" }, { "model": "v3", "weight": 0.06301781787712588, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "market", "weight": 0.18729675699179427, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "histgeo", "weight": 0.02760802595386354, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "latent", "weight": 0.03563066882913146, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "batchbias", "weight": 0.020512372723621893, "source": "statewide fallback" } ], "candidate_benchmarks": { "Abdul El-Sayed": { "opponent": "Haley Stevens", "expected_remaining_share_points": 48.74909884299047, "expected_final_county_share_points": 48.74909884299047, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 47.52803068647186, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 47.52803068647186, "required_final_county_share_points": 47.52803068647186, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 47.52803068647186, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": -1175.7754316087141, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": false }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 47.52803068647186, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 47.52803068647186, "required_final_county_share_points": 47.52803068647186, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 47.52803068647186, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.17738677593538, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.17738677593538, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.177386775935375, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.024044322225107804, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999973, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.82658349959149, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.82658349959149, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.82658349959149, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.003259695682198218, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.9999999999999996, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": 1.2210681565186121, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "ABOVE", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.001535805991480053, "criticality_score": 0.001257756156592266, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -1392.9923082222588, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -144.89042583882193, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 507.51454393653006, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Haley Stevens": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 46.39513307510219, "expected_final_county_share_points": 46.39513307510219, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 47.6162012316208, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 47.6162012316208, "required_final_county_share_points": 47.6162012316208, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 47.6162012316208, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1270.9196635268067, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 47.6162012316208, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 47.6162012316208, "required_final_county_share_points": 47.6162012316208, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 47.6162012316208, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.26571030323427, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.26571030323427, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.26571030323427, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.07865391656842785, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.999999999999999, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.915365955839, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.915365955839, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.91536595583901, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.10597932088248406, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -1.2210681565186121, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.001535805991480053, "criticality_score": 0.001257756156592266, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1488.1365401403514, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 2736.2384225237874, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 3388.6433922991396, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Mallory McMorrow": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 4.85576808190735, "expected_final_county_share_points": 4.85576808190735, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 36.97153175493867, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 36.97153175493867, "required_final_county_share_points": 36.97153175493867, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 36.97153175493867, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 29487.81198368855, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 36.97153175493867, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 36.97153175493867, "required_final_county_share_points": 36.97153175493867, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 36.97153175493867, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 37.581893983030355, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 37.581893983030355, "required_final_county_share_points": 37.581893983030355, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.159018308558073, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999906, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 38.188383587640025, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 38.188383587640025, "required_final_county_share_points": 38.188383587640025, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.213613509684069, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.999999999999993, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -32.11576367303132, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "WELL BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.001535805991480053, "criticality_score": 4.782093949613039e-05, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1446.5971751471566, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 2694.6990575305927, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 3347.104027305945, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } } } }, { "cid": "26053", "county": "26053", "fips": null, "reporting": 0.0, "current_votes": 0, "current_candidate_votes": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 0, "Haley Stevens": 0, "Mallory McMorrow": 0 }, "current_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": null, "Haley Stevens": null, "Mallory McMorrow": null }, "estimated_remaining_votes": 1803.7504679250026, "estimated_final_votes": 1803.7504679250026, "turnout_disagreement_votes": 2.2737367544323206e-13, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 49.18170843815538, "Haley Stevens": 45.45365704777212, "Mallory McMorrow": 5.364634514072509 }, "remaining_sources": [ { "model": "market", "remaining_votes": 1803.7504679250023, "weight": 0.1780093144963334 } ], "share_sources": [ { "model": "v0", "weight": 0.03630604611298715, "source": "statewide raw" }, { "model": "v3", "weight": 0.06301781787712588, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "market", "weight": 0.18729675699179427, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "histgeo", "weight": 0.02760802595386354, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "latent", "weight": 0.03563066882913146, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "batchbias", "weight": 0.020512372723621893, "source": "statewide fallback" } ], "candidate_benchmarks": { "Abdul El-Sayed": { "opponent": "Haley Stevens", "expected_remaining_share_points": 49.18170843815538, "expected_final_county_share_points": 49.18170843815538, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 47.967856258444506, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 47.967856258444506, "required_final_county_share_points": 47.967856258444506, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 47.967856258444506, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": -1230.8072640189469, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": false }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 47.967856258444506, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 47.967856258444506, "required_final_county_share_points": 47.967856258444506, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 47.967856258444506, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.61348870054192, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.61348870054192, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.61348870054192, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.024044322225107804, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999973, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 49.258704367844174, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 49.258704367844174, "required_final_county_share_points": 49.258704367844174, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.003259695682198218, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.9999999999999996, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": 1.2138521797108766, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "ABOVE", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.0014692564944305063, "criticality_score": 0.0012104080867412239, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -1457.8629087060717, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -153.2286557977696, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 528.7267857813522, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Haley Stevens": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 45.45365704777212, "expected_final_county_share_points": 45.45365704777211, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 46.667509227482995, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 46.667509227482995, "required_final_county_share_points": 46.667509227482995, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 46.667509227482995, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1325.4426295048745, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 46.667509227482995, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 46.667509227482995, "required_final_county_share_points": 46.667509227482995, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 46.667509227482995, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 47.31355243907429, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 47.31355243907429, "required_final_county_share_points": 47.31355243907429, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.07865391656842785, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.999999999999999, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 47.96000038765792, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 47.96000038765792, "required_final_county_share_points": 47.96000038765792, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.10597932088248406, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -1.2138521797108766, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.0014692564944305063, "criticality_score": 0.0012104080867412239, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1552.4982741919991, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 2857.1325271003006, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 3539.087968679423, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Mallory McMorrow": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 5.364634514072509, "expected_final_county_share_points": 5.364634514072509, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 38.66247254553269, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 38.66247254553269, "required_final_county_share_points": 38.66247254553269, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 38.66247254553269, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 30823.741802908775, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 38.66247254553269, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 38.66247254553269, "required_final_county_share_points": 38.66247254553269, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 38.66247254553269, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 39.2608626515715, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 39.2608626515715, "required_final_county_share_points": 39.2608626515715, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.159018308558073, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999906, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 39.85425418481526, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 39.85425418481526, "required_final_county_share_points": 39.85425418481526, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.213613509684069, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.999999999999993, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -33.29783803146018, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "WELL BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.0014692564944305063, "criticality_score": 4.412468139950515e-05, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1512.4092516582996, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 2817.043504566601, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 3498.998946145723, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } } } }, { "cid": "fips:26053", "county": "Gogebic", "fips": "26053", "reporting": 12.08, "current_votes": 281, "current_candidate_votes": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 137, "Haley Stevens": 118, "Mallory McMorrow": 26 }, "current_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 48.754448398576514, "Haley Stevens": 41.99288256227758, "Mallory McMorrow": 9.252669039145907 }, "estimated_remaining_votes": 1803.7504679250026, "estimated_final_votes": 2084.7504679250023, "turnout_disagreement_votes": 2.2737367544323206e-13, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 48.98109738774873, "Haley Stevens": 44.79657419156991, "Mallory McMorrow": 6.222328420681346 }, "remaining_sources": [ { "model": "v3", "remaining_votes": 1803.7504679250023, "weight": 0.1342208488636769 }, { "model": "histgeo", "remaining_votes": 1803.7504679250023, "weight": 0.05994207394479305 }, { "model": "latent", "remaining_votes": 1803.7504679250023, "weight": 0.07672787409296966 }, { "model": "batchbias", "remaining_votes": 1803.7504679250023, "weight": 0.045123489075924846 } ], "share_sources": [ { "model": "v0", "weight": 0.03630604611298715, "source": "statewide raw" }, { "model": "v1", "weight": 0.14599140026529184, "source": "county live" }, { "model": "v3", "weight": 0.15004242351696637, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "market", "weight": 0.0786646379365536, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "histgeo", "weight": 0.06573339512824654, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "latent", "weight": 0.08483492578364633, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "batchbias", "weight": 0.04883898267529022, "source": "county remaining" } ], "candidate_benchmarks": { "Abdul El-Sayed": { "opponent": "Haley Stevens", "expected_remaining_share_points": 48.98109738774873, "expected_final_county_share_points": 48.9505477527026, "current_county_share_points": 48.754448398576514, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 47.77861414884298, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 47.77861414884298, "required_final_county_share_points": 47.910145201788644, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 47.77861414884298, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": -1231.0078750693542, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": false }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 47.77861414884298, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 47.77861414884298, "required_final_county_share_points": 47.910145201788644, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 47.77861414884298, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.41823981475325, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.41823981475325, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.46355680280908, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.024044322225107804, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999973, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 49.05736127840411, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 49.05736127840411, "required_final_county_share_points": 49.01653216214241, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.003259695682198218, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.9999999999999996, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": 1.2024832389057494, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "ABOVE", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.0014692564944305063, "criticality_score": 0.0012218519534355576, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -1458.0635197564782, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -153.42926684817627, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 528.5261747309455, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Haley Stevens": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 44.79657419156991, "expected_final_county_share_points": 44.41866932479931, "current_county_share_points": 41.99288256227758, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 45.99905743047566, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 45.99905743047566, "required_final_county_share_points": 45.45907187571326, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 45.99905743047566, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1324.785546648673, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 45.99905743047566, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 45.99905743047566, "required_final_county_share_points": 45.45907187571326, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 45.99905743047566, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 46.639181544542666, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 46.639181544542666, "required_final_county_share_points": 46.012914739903934, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.07865391656842785, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.999999999999999, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 47.279798322496156, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 47.279798322496156, "required_final_county_share_points": 46.56718386264664, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.10597932088248406, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -1.2024832389057494, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.0014692564944305063, "criticality_score": 0.0012218519534355576, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1551.841191335797, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 2856.4754442440985, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 3538.4308858232207, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Mallory McMorrow": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 6.222328420681346, "expected_final_county_share_points": 6.630782922498095, "current_county_share_points": 9.252669039145907, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 40.80800943377436, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 40.80800943377436, "required_final_county_share_points": 36.55471831461411, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 40.80800943377436, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 30824.599496815375, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 40.80800943377436, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 40.80800943377436, "required_final_county_share_points": 36.55471831461411, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 40.80800943377436, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 41.37269393957982, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 41.37269393957982, "required_final_county_share_points": 37.043289948124944, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.159018308558073, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999906, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 41.93086349656179, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 41.93086349656179, "required_final_county_share_points": 37.526224771777876, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.213613509684069, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.999999999999993, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -34.585681013093016, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "WELL BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.0014692564944305063, "criticality_score": 4.248164128600774e-05, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1513.2669455649084, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 2817.9011984732097, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 3499.856640052332, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } } } }, { "cid": "fips:26071", "county": "Iron", "fips": "26071", "reporting": 0.0, "current_votes": 0, "current_candidate_votes": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 0, "Haley Stevens": 0, "Mallory McMorrow": 0 }, "current_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": null, "Haley Stevens": null, "Mallory McMorrow": null }, "estimated_remaining_votes": 1664.049750378701, "estimated_final_votes": 1664.049750378701, "turnout_disagreement_votes": 0.0, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 49.0757394697093, "Haley Stevens": 47.03656679753884, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.8876937327518637 }, "remaining_sources": [ { "model": "v3", "remaining_votes": 1664.049750378701, "weight": 0.1342208488636769 }, { "model": "histgeo", "remaining_votes": 1664.049750378701, "weight": 0.05994207394479305 }, { "model": "latent", "remaining_votes": 1664.049750378701, "weight": 0.07672787409296966 }, { "model": "batchbias", "remaining_votes": 1664.049750378701, "weight": 0.045123489075924846 } ], "share_sources": [ { "model": "v0", "weight": 0.03630604611298715, "source": "statewide raw" }, { "model": "v3", "weight": 0.15004242351696637, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "market", "weight": 0.0786646379365536, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "histgeo", "weight": 0.06573339512824654, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "latent", "weight": 0.08483492578364633, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "batchbias", "weight": 0.04883898267529022, "source": "county remaining" } ], "candidate_benchmarks": { "Abdul El-Sayed": { "opponent": "Haley Stevens", "expected_remaining_share_points": 49.0757394697093, "expected_final_county_share_points": 49.0757394697093, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 47.84215892429268, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 47.84215892429268, "required_final_county_share_points": 47.84215892429268, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 47.84215892429268, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": -1338.3711848081925, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": false }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 47.84215892429268, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 47.84215892429268, "required_final_county_share_points": 47.84215892429268, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 47.84215892429268, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.49814121865617, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.49814121865617, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.49814121865617, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.024044322225107804, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999973, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 49.15402565364959, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 49.15402565364959, "required_final_county_share_points": 49.15402565364959, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.003259695682198218, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.9999999999999996, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": 1.2335805454166149, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "ABOVE", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.001355462380343524, "criticality_score": 0.0010988033050454327, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -1584.488661317661, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -170.32742988885806, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 568.8797041360738, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Haley Stevens": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 47.03656679753884, "expected_final_county_share_points": 47.03656679753884, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.270147342955454, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.270147342955454, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.270147342955454, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 48.270147342955454, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1434.4834910754407, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.270147342955454, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.270147342955454, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.270147342955454, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 48.270147342955454, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.92622101144557, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.92622101144557, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.92622101144557, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.07865391656842785, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.999999999999999, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 49.58237955362736, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 49.58237955362736, "required_final_county_share_points": 49.58237955362736, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.10597932088248406, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -1.2335805454166149, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.001355462380343524, "criticality_score": 0.0010988033050454327, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1680.600967584909, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 3094.762199013712, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 3833.969333038644, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Mallory McMorrow": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 3.8876937327518637, "expected_final_county_share_points": 3.8876937327518637, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 33.82754775397445, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 33.82754775397445, "required_final_county_share_points": 33.82754775397445, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 33.82754775397445, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 33409.53690916661, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 33.82754775397445, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 33.82754775397445, "required_final_county_share_points": 33.82754775397445, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 33.82754775397445, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 34.47957876983034, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 34.47957876983034, "required_final_county_share_points": 34.47957876983034, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.159018308558073, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999906, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 35.1309972829674, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 35.1309972829674, "required_final_county_share_points": 35.1309972829674, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.213613509684069, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.999999999999993, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -29.939854021222587, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "WELL BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.001355462380343524, "criticality_score": 4.527284533126705e-05, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1637.452094520122, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 3051.6133259489247, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 3790.820459973857, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } } } }, { "cid": "26071", "county": "26071", "fips": null, "reporting": 0.0, "current_votes": 0, "current_candidate_votes": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 0, "Haley Stevens": 0, "Mallory McMorrow": 0 }, "current_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": null, "Haley Stevens": null, "Mallory McMorrow": null }, "estimated_remaining_votes": 1664.0497503787008, "estimated_final_votes": 1664.0497503787008, "turnout_disagreement_votes": 2.2737367544323206e-13, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 48.973903537573875, "Haley Stevens": 46.149745434179586, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.8763510282465425 }, "remaining_sources": [ { "model": "market", "remaining_votes": 1664.049750378701, "weight": 0.1780093144963334 } ], "share_sources": [ { "model": "v0", "weight": 0.03630604611298715, "source": "statewide raw" }, { "model": "v3", "weight": 0.06301781787712588, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "market", "weight": 0.18729675699179427, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "histgeo", "weight": 0.02760802595386354, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "latent", "weight": 0.03563066882913146, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "batchbias", "weight": 0.020512372723621893, "source": "statewide fallback" } ], "candidate_benchmarks": { "Abdul El-Sayed": { "opponent": "Haley Stevens", "expected_remaining_share_points": 48.973903537573875, "expected_final_county_share_points": 48.973903537573875, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 47.75327342108671, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 47.75327342108671, "required_final_county_share_points": 47.75327342108671, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 47.75327342108671, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": -1338.4730207403295, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": false }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 47.75327342108671, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 47.75327342108671, "required_final_county_share_points": 47.75327342108671, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 47.75327342108671, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.402435191598066, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.402435191598066, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.402435191598066, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.024044322225107804, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999973, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 49.05134992915548, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 49.05134992915548, "required_final_county_share_points": 49.05134992915548, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.003259695682198218, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.9999999999999996, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": 1.2206301164871647, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "ABOVE", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.0013554623803435238, "criticality_score": 0.0011104611970777774, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -1584.5904972497965, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -170.42926582099352, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 568.7778682039383, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Haley Stevens": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 46.149745434179586, "expected_final_county_share_points": 46.149745434179586, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 47.37037555066674, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 47.37037555066674, "required_final_county_share_points": 47.37037555066674, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 47.37037555066674, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1433.5966697120828, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 47.37037555066674, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 47.37037555066674, "required_final_county_share_points": 47.37037555066674, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 47.37037555066674, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.01977805349677, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.01977805349677, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.01977805349677, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.07865391656842785, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.999999999999999, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.6694149671013, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.6694149671013, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.6694149671013, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.10597932088248406, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -1.2206301164871576, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.0013554623803435238, "criticality_score": 0.0011104611970777839, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1679.71414622155, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 3093.875377650353, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 3833.0825116752853, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Mallory McMorrow": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 4.8763510282465425, "expected_final_county_share_points": 4.876351028246543, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 37.136501345834354, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 37.136501345834354, "required_final_county_share_points": 37.13650134583436, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 37.136501345834354, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 33410.52556646211, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 37.136501345834354, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 37.136501345834354, "required_final_county_share_points": 37.13650134583436, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 37.136501345834354, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 37.749746513256014, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 37.749746513256014, "required_final_county_share_points": 37.749746513256014, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.159018308558073, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999906, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 38.359105897231565, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 38.359105897231565, "required_final_county_share_points": 38.359105897231565, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.213613509684069, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.999999999999993, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -32.260150317587815, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "WELL BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.0013554623803435238, "criticality_score": 4.201661700269708e-05, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1638.440751815617, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 3052.60198324442, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 3791.809117269352, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } } } }, { "cid": "26151", "county": "26151", "fips": null, "reporting": 0.0, "current_votes": 0, "current_candidate_votes": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 0, "Haley Stevens": 0, "Mallory McMorrow": 0 }, "current_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": null, "Haley Stevens": null, "Mallory McMorrow": null }, "estimated_remaining_votes": 1585.2325585258732, "estimated_final_votes": 1585.2325585258732, "turnout_disagreement_votes": 0.0, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 44.77543062705778, "Haley Stevens": 51.51673444802286, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.707834924919356 }, "remaining_sources": [ { "model": "market", "remaining_votes": 1585.2325585258732, "weight": 0.1780093144963334 } ], "share_sources": [ { "model": "v0", "weight": 0.03630604611298715, "source": "statewide raw" }, { "model": "v3", "weight": 0.06301781787712588, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "market", "weight": 0.18729675699179427, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "histgeo", "weight": 0.02760802595386354, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "latent", "weight": 0.03563066882913146, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "batchbias", "weight": 0.020512372723621893, "source": "statewide fallback" } ], "candidate_benchmarks": { "Abdul El-Sayed": { "opponent": "Haley Stevens", "expected_remaining_share_points": 44.77543062705778, "expected_final_county_share_points": 44.77543062705779, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 43.54792094614167, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 43.54792094614167, "required_final_county_share_points": 43.54792094614167, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 43.54792094614167, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": -1411.6548550058005, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": false }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 43.54792094614167, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 43.54792094614167, "required_final_county_share_points": 43.54792094614167, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 43.54792094614167, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 44.19995967493985, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 44.19995967493985, "required_final_county_share_points": 44.19995967493985, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.024044322225107804, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999973, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 44.853525653420476, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 44.853525653420476, "required_final_county_share_points": 44.853525653420476, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.003259695682198218, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.9999999999999996, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": 1.227509680916107, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "ABOVE", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.0012912613319935493, "criticality_score": 0.0010519357623557507, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -1670.0092038025844, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -185.53638528904273, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 590.4238611975715, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Haley Stevens": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 51.51673444802286, "expected_final_county_share_points": 51.51673444802286, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 52.74424412893895, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 52.74424412893895, "required_final_county_share_points": 52.74424412893895, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 52.74424412893895, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1507.9470200808814, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 52.74424412893895, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 52.74424412893895, "required_final_county_share_points": 52.74424412893895, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 52.74424412893895, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 53.39475451115378, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 53.39475451115378, "required_final_county_share_points": 53.39475451115378, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.07865391656842785, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.999999999999999, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 54.04373547383289, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 54.04373547383289, "required_final_county_share_points": 54.04373547383289, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.10597932088248406, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -1.2275096809160928, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.0012912613319935493, "criticality_score": 0.0010519357623557629, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1766.301368877665, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 3250.7741873912064, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 4026.734433877821, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Mallory McMorrow": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 3.707834924919356, "expected_final_county_share_points": 3.7078349249193563, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 31.45902167325829, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 31.45902167325829, "required_final_county_share_points": 31.45902167325829, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 31.45902167325829, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 35070.273897555955, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 31.45902167325829, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 31.45902167325829, "required_final_county_share_points": 31.45902167325829, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 31.45902167325829, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 32.04801582799303, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 32.04801582799303, "required_final_county_share_points": 32.04801582799303, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.159018308558073, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999906, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 32.635819333711815, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 32.635819333711815, "required_final_county_share_points": 32.635819333711815, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.213613509684069, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.999999999999993, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -27.751186748338935, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "WELL BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.0012912613319935493, "criticality_score": 4.652995000550161e-05, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1718.4924693545615, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 3202.965287868103, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 3978.925534354718, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } } } }, { "cid": "fips:26151", "county": "Sanilac", "fips": "26151", "reporting": 47.64, "current_votes": 1531, "current_candidate_votes": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 561, "Haley Stevens": 911, "Mallory McMorrow": 59 }, "current_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 36.642717178314825, "Haley Stevens": 59.50359242325277, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.8536903984323976 }, "estimated_remaining_votes": 1585.2325585258732, "estimated_final_votes": 3116.232558525873, "turnout_disagreement_votes": 0.0, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 41.270741922655226, "Haley Stevens": 54.89360470263943, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.835653374705344 }, "remaining_sources": [ { "model": "v3", "remaining_votes": 1585.2325585258732, "weight": 0.1342208488636769 }, { "model": "histgeo", "remaining_votes": 1585.2325585258732, "weight": 0.05994207394479305 }, { "model": "latent", "remaining_votes": 1585.2325585258732, "weight": 0.07672787409296966 }, { "model": "batchbias", "remaining_votes": 1585.2325585258732, "weight": 0.045123489075924846 } ], "share_sources": [ { "model": "v0", "weight": 0.03630604611298715, "source": "statewide raw" }, { "model": "v1", "weight": 0.14599140026529184, "source": "county live" }, { "model": "v3", "weight": 0.15004242351696637, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "market", "weight": 0.0786646379365536, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "histgeo", "weight": 0.06573339512824654, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "latent", "weight": 0.08483492578364633, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "batchbias", "weight": 0.04883898267529022, "source": "county remaining" } ], "candidate_benchmarks": { "Abdul El-Sayed": { "opponent": "Haley Stevens", "expected_remaining_share_points": 41.270741922655226, "expected_final_county_share_points": 38.99700087460683, "current_county_share_points": 36.642717178314825, "recent_batch_votes": 129, "recent_batch_share_points": 36.434108527131784, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 40.0657582636228, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 40.0657582636228, "required_final_county_share_points": 38.38402373220337, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 40.0657582636228, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": -1415.1595437102008, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": false }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 40.0657582636228, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 40.0657582636228, "required_final_county_share_points": 38.38402373220337, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 40.0657582636228, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 40.70528102021175, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 40.70528102021175, "required_final_county_share_points": 38.70934999608868, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.024044322225107804, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999973, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 41.347553538131535, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 41.347553538131535, "required_final_county_share_points": 39.03607506802441, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.003259695682198218, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.9999999999999996, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": 1.204983659032429, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -3.6316497364910134, "status": "ABOVE", "recent_status": "WELL BELOW", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.0012912613319935493, "criticality_score": 0.001071600699573303, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -1673.513892506987, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -189.04107399344528, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 586.919172493169, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Haley Stevens": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 54.89360470263943, "expected_final_county_share_points": 57.15848419019532, "current_county_share_points": 59.50359242325277, "recent_batch_votes": 129, "recent_batch_share_points": 61.240310077519375, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 56.09858836167185, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 56.09858836167185, "required_final_county_share_points": 57.77146133259878, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 56.09858836167185, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1511.3238903354957, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 56.09858836167185, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 56.09858836167185, "required_final_county_share_points": 57.77146133259878, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 56.09858836167185, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 56.73537267617203, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 56.73537267617203, "required_final_county_share_points": 58.09539454655048, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.07865391656842785, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.999999999999999, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 57.36942981402198, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 57.36942981402198, "required_final_county_share_points": 58.417940441315466, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.10597932088248406, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -1.2049836590324219, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": 5.141721715847524, "status": "BELOW", "recent_status": "WELL ABOVE", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.0012912613319935493, "criticality_score": 0.0010716006995733092, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1769.6782391322815, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 3254.151057645823, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 4030.111304132438, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Mallory McMorrow": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 3.835653374705344, "expected_final_county_share_points": 3.844514935197858, "current_county_share_points": 3.8536903984323976, "recent_batch_votes": 129, "recent_batch_share_points": 2.3255813953488373, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 30.432537007567394, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 30.432537007567394, "required_final_county_share_points": 17.374392791965256, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 30.432537007567394, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 35070.40171600574, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 30.432537007567394, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 30.432537007567394, "required_final_county_share_points": 17.374392791965256, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 30.432537007567394, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 30.959689995399014, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 30.959689995399014, "required_final_county_share_points": 17.642556372166787, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.159018308558073, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999906, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 31.484334232986456, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 31.484334232986456, "required_final_county_share_points": 17.909443747048726, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.213613509684069, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.999999999999993, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -26.59688363286205, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -28.106955612218556, "status": "WELL BELOW", "recent_status": "WELL BELOW", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.0012912613319935493, "criticality_score": 4.8549346976805895e-05, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1718.6202878043475, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 3203.093106317889, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 3979.053352804504, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } } } }, { "cid": "fips:26165", "county": "Wexford", "fips": "26165", "reporting": 44.65, "current_votes": 1194, "current_candidate_votes": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 525, "Haley Stevens": 618, "Mallory McMorrow": 51 }, "current_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 43.969849246231156, "Haley Stevens": 51.75879396984925, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.271356783919598 }, "estimated_remaining_votes": 1555.6611022108018, "estimated_final_votes": 2749.661102210802, "turnout_disagreement_votes": 0.0, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 46.01856870228579, "Haley Stevens": 49.883040283064226, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.09839101464997 }, "remaining_sources": [ { "model": "v3", "remaining_votes": 1555.6611022108018, "weight": 0.1342208488636769 }, { "model": "histgeo", "remaining_votes": 1555.6611022108018, "weight": 0.05994207394479305 }, { "model": "latent", "remaining_votes": 1555.6611022108018, "weight": 0.07672787409296966 }, { "model": "batchbias", "remaining_votes": 1555.6611022108018, "weight": 0.045123489075924846 } ], "share_sources": [ { "model": "v0", "weight": 0.03630604611298715, "source": "statewide raw" }, { "model": "v1", "weight": 0.14599140026529184, "source": "county live" }, { "model": "v3", "weight": 0.15004242351696637, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "market", "weight": 0.0786646379365536, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "histgeo", "weight": 0.06573339512824654, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "latent", "weight": 0.08483492578364633, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "batchbias", "weight": 0.04883898267529022, "source": "county remaining" } ], "candidate_benchmarks": { "Abdul El-Sayed": { "opponent": "Haley Stevens", "expected_remaining_share_points": 46.01856870228579, "expected_final_county_share_points": 45.128942330307645, "current_county_share_points": 43.969849246231156, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 44.79107675980081, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 44.79107675980081, "required_final_county_share_points": 44.434470758278, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 44.79107675980081, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": -1438.0969013877336, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": false }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 44.79107675980081, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 44.79107675980081, "required_final_county_share_points": 44.434470758278, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 44.79107675980081, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 45.44333885363721, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 45.44333885363721, "required_final_county_share_points": 44.8034976056273, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.024044322225107804, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999973, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 46.09659937031037, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 46.09659937031037, "required_final_county_share_points": 45.173089325341955, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.003259695682198218, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.9999999999999996, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": 1.2274919424849813, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "ABOVE", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.0012671737128836463, "criticality_score": 0.0010323275200636607, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -1701.3622904672616, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -188.67122889216927, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 602.0391932584128, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Haley Stevens": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 49.883040283064226, "expected_final_county_share_points": 50.69755880689997, "current_county_share_points": 51.75879396984925, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 51.1105322255492, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 51.1105322255492, "required_final_county_share_points": 51.3920303789296, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 51.1105322255492, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1533.9985103730835, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 51.1105322255492, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 51.1105322255492, "required_final_county_share_points": 51.3920303789296, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 51.1105322255492, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 51.761791729754094, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 51.761791729754094, "required_final_county_share_points": 51.76048999648831, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.07865391656842785, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.999999999999999, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 52.412044498729884, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 52.412044498729884, "required_final_county_share_points": 52.12838003882377, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.10597932088248406, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -1.2274919424849742, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.0012671737128836463, "criticality_score": 0.0010323275200636666, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1797.2638994526117, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 3309.9549610277036, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 4100.665383178286, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Mallory McMorrow": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 4.09839101464997, "expected_final_county_share_points": 4.1734988627923775, "current_county_share_points": 4.271356783919598, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 33.340635036845015, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 33.340635036845015, "required_final_county_share_points": 20.71772736066405, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 33.340635036845015, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 35737.242428094614, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 33.340635036845015, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 33.340635036845015, "required_final_county_share_points": 20.71772736066405, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 33.340635036845015, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 33.935195924503795, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 33.935195924503795, "required_final_county_share_points": 21.05410890422337, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.159018308558073, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999906, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 34.527520483618154, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 34.527520483618154, "required_final_county_share_points": 21.389225212104908, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.213613509684069, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.999999999999993, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -29.242244022195045, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "WELL BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.0012671737128836463, "criticality_score": 4.3333668644644833e-05, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1751.4792501841973, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 3264.1703117592897, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 4054.880733909872, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } } } }, { "cid": "26165", "county": "26165", "fips": null, "reporting": 0.0, "current_votes": 0, "current_candidate_votes": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 0, "Haley Stevens": 0, "Mallory McMorrow": 0 }, "current_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": null, "Haley Stevens": null, "Mallory McMorrow": null }, "estimated_remaining_votes": 1555.6611022108016, "estimated_final_votes": 1555.6611022108016, "turnout_disagreement_votes": 2.2737367544323206e-13, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 47.135154262806495, "Haley Stevens": 48.80574469593407, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.0591010412594315 }, "remaining_sources": [ { "model": "market", "remaining_votes": 1555.6611022108018, "weight": 0.1780093144963334 } ], "share_sources": [ { "model": "v0", "weight": 0.03630604611298715, "source": "statewide raw" }, { "model": "v3", "weight": 0.06301781787712588, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "market", "weight": 0.18729675699179427, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "histgeo", "weight": 0.02760802595386354, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "latent", "weight": 0.03563066882913146, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "batchbias", "weight": 0.020512372723621893, "source": "statewide fallback" } ], "candidate_benchmarks": { "Abdul El-Sayed": { "opponent": "Haley Stevens", "expected_remaining_share_points": 47.135154262806495, "expected_final_county_share_points": 47.135154262806495, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 45.90481322327478, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 45.90481322327478, "required_final_county_share_points": 45.90481322327478, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 45.90481322327478, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": -1436.9803158272105, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": false }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 45.90481322327478, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 45.90481322327478, "required_final_county_share_points": 45.90481322327478, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 45.90481322327478, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 46.55876907784067, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 46.55876907784067, "required_final_county_share_points": 46.558769077840665, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.024044322225107804, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999973, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 47.21331723965985, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 47.21331723965985, "required_final_county_share_points": 47.213317239659844, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.003259695682198218, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.9999999999999996, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": 1.2303410395317158, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "ABOVE", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.0012671737128836463, "criticality_score": 0.001029936962328713, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -1700.245704906741, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -187.55464333164855, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 603.1557788189334, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Haley Stevens": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 48.80574469593407, "expected_final_county_share_points": 48.805744695934074, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 50.0360857354658, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 50.0360857354658, "required_final_county_share_points": 50.0360857354658, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 50.0360857354658, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1532.921214785951, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 50.0360857354658, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 50.0360857354658, "required_final_county_share_points": 50.0360857354658, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 50.0360857354658, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 50.68944360959574, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 50.68944360959574, "required_final_county_share_points": 50.68944360959574, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.07865391656842785, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.999999999999999, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 51.34219784082158, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 51.34219784082158, "required_final_county_share_points": 51.34219784082158, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.10597932088248406, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -1.23034103953173, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.0012671737128836463, "criticality_score": 0.001029936962328701, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1796.1866038654814, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 3308.8776654405738, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 4099.588087591156, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Mallory McMorrow": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 4.0591010412594315, "expected_final_county_share_points": 4.0591010412594315, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 33.672073812820926, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 33.672073812820926, "required_final_county_share_points": 33.672073812820926, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 33.672073812820926, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 35737.20313812122, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 33.672073812820926, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 33.672073812820926, "required_final_county_share_points": 33.672073812820926, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 33.672073812820926, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 34.286290073197485, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 34.286290073197485, "required_final_county_share_points": 34.28629007319749, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.159018308558073, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999906, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 34.89868615217256, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 34.89868615217256, "required_final_county_share_points": 34.89868615217256, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.213613509684069, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.999999999999993, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -29.612972771561495, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "WELL BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.0012671737128836463, "criticality_score": 4.27911686766066e-05, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1751.439960210807, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 3264.131021785899, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 4054.8414439364815, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } } } }, { "cid": "fips:26011", "county": "Arenac", "fips": "26011", "reporting": 0.0, "current_votes": 0, "current_candidate_votes": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 0, "Haley Stevens": 0, "Mallory McMorrow": 0 }, "current_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": null, "Haley Stevens": null, "Mallory McMorrow": null }, "estimated_remaining_votes": 1502.2465186291217, "estimated_final_votes": 1502.2465186291217, "turnout_disagreement_votes": 0.0, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 49.07978973079111, "Haley Stevens": 47.04349713378837, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.8767131354205167 }, "remaining_sources": [ { "model": "v3", "remaining_votes": 1502.2465186291217, "weight": 0.1342208488636769 }, { "model": "histgeo", "remaining_votes": 1502.2465186291217, "weight": 0.05994207394479305 }, { "model": "latent", "remaining_votes": 1502.2465186291217, "weight": 0.07672787409296966 }, { "model": "batchbias", "remaining_votes": 1502.2465186291217, "weight": 0.045123489075924846 } ], "share_sources": [ { "model": "v0", "weight": 0.03630604611298715, "source": "statewide raw" }, { "model": "v3", "weight": 0.15004242351696637, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "market", "weight": 0.0786646379365536, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "histgeo", "weight": 0.06573339512824654, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "latent", "weight": 0.08483492578364633, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "batchbias", "weight": 0.04883898267529022, "source": "county remaining" } ], "candidate_benchmarks": { "Abdul El-Sayed": { "opponent": "Haley Stevens", "expected_remaining_share_points": 49.07978973079111, "expected_final_county_share_points": 49.07978973079111, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 47.84606758299723, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 47.84606758299723, "required_final_county_share_points": 47.84606758299723, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 47.84606758299723, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": -1487.8055878537245, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": false }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 47.84606758299723, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 47.84606758299723, "required_final_county_share_points": 47.84606758299723, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 47.84606758299723, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.50212492190258, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.50212492190258, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.50212492190258, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.024044322225107804, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999973, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 49.15808497043262, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 49.15808497043262, "required_final_county_share_points": 49.15808497043262, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.003259695682198218, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.9999999999999996, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": 1.233722147793884, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "ABOVE", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.001223664521773101, "criticality_score": 0.0009918477381323115, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -1760.4317648963256, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -193.9547486594797, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 624.8705450578608, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Haley Stevens": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 47.04349713378837, "expected_final_county_share_points": 47.04349713378837, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.27721928158224, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.27721928158224, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.27721928158224, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 48.27721928158224, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1583.928874718304, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.27721928158224, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.27721928158224, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.27721928158224, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 48.27721928158224, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.933367424627214, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.933367424627214, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.933367424627214, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.07865391656842785, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.999999999999999, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 49.589599870405785, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 49.589599870405785, "required_final_county_share_points": 49.589599870405785, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.10597932088248406, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -1.2337221477938698, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.001223664521773101, "criticality_score": 0.0009918477381323228, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1856.5550517609051, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 3423.0320679977503, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 4241.857361715091, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Mallory McMorrow": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 3.8767131354205167, "expected_final_county_share_points": 3.8767131354205167, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 33.78753370847888, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 33.78753370847888, "required_final_county_share_points": 33.78753370847888, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 33.78753370847888, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 37007.565221535966, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 33.78753370847888, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 33.78753370847888, "required_final_county_share_points": 33.78753370847888, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 33.78753370847888, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 34.44002816914223, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 34.44002816914223, "required_final_county_share_points": 34.44002816914223, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.159018308558073, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999906, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 35.09195641479674, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 35.09195641479674, "required_final_county_share_points": 35.09195641479674, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.213613509684069, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.999999999999993, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -29.910820573058366, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "WELL BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.001223664521773101, "criticality_score": 4.091042968160141e-05, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1813.3882677625372, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 3379.865283999383, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 4198.690577716724, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } } } }, { "cid": "26011", "county": "26011", "fips": null, "reporting": 0.0, "current_votes": 0, "current_candidate_votes": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 0, "Haley Stevens": 0, "Mallory McMorrow": 0 }, "current_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": null, "Haley Stevens": null, "Mallory McMorrow": null }, "estimated_remaining_votes": 1502.2465186291215, "estimated_final_votes": 1502.2465186291215, "turnout_disagreement_votes": 2.2737367544323206e-13, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 47.866155366725685, "Haley Stevens": 48.07259662711275, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.061248006161554 }, "remaining_sources": [ { "model": "market", "remaining_votes": 1502.2465186291217, "weight": 0.1780093144963334 } ], "share_sources": [ { "model": "v0", "weight": 0.03630604611298715, "source": "statewide raw" }, { "model": "v3", "weight": 0.06301781787712588, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "market", "weight": 0.18729675699179427, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "histgeo", "weight": 0.02760802595386354, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "latent", "weight": 0.03563066882913146, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "batchbias", "weight": 0.020512372723621893, "source": "statewide fallback" } ], "candidate_benchmarks": { "Abdul El-Sayed": { "opponent": "Haley Stevens", "expected_remaining_share_points": 47.866155366725685, "expected_final_county_share_points": 47.866155366725685, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 46.63499237555791, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 46.63499237555791, "required_final_county_share_points": 46.6349923755579, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 46.63499237555791, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": -1489.0192222177886, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": false }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 46.63499237555791, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 46.63499237555791, "required_final_county_share_points": 46.6349923755579, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 46.63499237555791, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 47.28950516908663, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 47.28950516908663, "required_final_county_share_points": 47.28950516908663, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.024044322225107804, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999973, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 47.94433799359388, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 47.94433799359388, "required_final_county_share_points": 47.94433799359388, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.003259695682198218, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.9999999999999996, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": 1.2311629911677784, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "ABOVE", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.0012236645217731008, "criticality_score": 0.0009939094421709629, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -1761.6453992603913, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -195.16838302354515, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 623.6569106937955, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Haley Stevens": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 48.07259662711275, "expected_final_county_share_points": 48.07259662711275, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 49.30375961828052, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 49.30375961828052, "required_final_county_share_points": 49.30375961828052, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 49.30375961828052, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1584.957974211627, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 49.30375961828052, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 49.30375961828052, "required_final_county_share_points": 49.30375961828052, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 49.30375961828052, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 49.95794612902271, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 49.95794612902271, "required_final_county_share_points": 49.95794612902271, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.07865391656842785, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.999999999999999, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 50.61180010634276, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 50.61180010634276, "required_final_county_share_points": 50.61180010634276, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.10597932088248406, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -1.2311629911677713, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.0012236645217731008, "criticality_score": 0.0009939094421709687, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1857.5841512542297, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 3424.061167491076, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 4242.886461208417, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Mallory McMorrow": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 4.061248006161554, "expected_final_county_share_points": 4.061248006161554, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 33.98016158619869, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 33.98016158619869, "required_final_county_share_points": 33.98016158619869, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 33.98016158619869, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 37007.749756406716, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 33.98016158619869, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 33.98016158619869, "required_final_county_share_points": 33.98016158619869, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 33.98016158619869, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 34.60618224899911, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 34.60618224899911, "required_final_county_share_points": 34.60618224899911, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.159018308558073, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999906, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 35.23057058958013, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 35.23057058958013, "required_final_county_share_points": 35.23057058958013, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.213613509684069, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.999999999999993, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -29.918913580037135, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "WELL BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.0012236645217731008, "criticality_score": 4.089936349124553e-05, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1813.5728026332786, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 3380.0498188701245, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 4198.875112587466, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } } } }, { "cid": "26045", "county": "26045", "fips": null, "reporting": 0.0, "current_votes": 0, "current_candidate_votes": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 0, "Haley Stevens": 0, "Mallory McMorrow": 0 }, "current_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": null, "Haley Stevens": null, "Mallory McMorrow": null }, "estimated_remaining_votes": 1488.4619678716554, "estimated_final_votes": 1488.4619678716554, "turnout_disagreement_votes": 0.0, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 48.76556279685301, "Haley Stevens": 46.474200664652585, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.760236538494406 }, "remaining_sources": [ { "model": "market", "remaining_votes": 1488.4619678716554, "weight": 0.1780093144963334 } ], "share_sources": [ { "model": "v0", "weight": 0.03630604611298715, "source": "statewide raw" }, { "model": "v3", "weight": 0.06301781787712588, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "market", "weight": 0.18729675699179427, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "histgeo", "weight": 0.02760802595386354, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "latent", "weight": 0.03563066882913146, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "batchbias", "weight": 0.020512372723621893, "source": "statewide fallback" } ], "candidate_benchmarks": { "Abdul El-Sayed": { "opponent": "Haley Stevens", "expected_remaining_share_points": 48.76556279685301, "expected_final_county_share_points": 48.76556279685301, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 47.543249302852686, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 47.543249302852686, "required_final_county_share_points": 47.54324930285268, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 47.543249302852686, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": -1502.3528116347456, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": false }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 47.543249302852686, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 47.543249302852686, "required_final_county_share_points": 47.54324930285268, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 47.543249302852686, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.19326232269358, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.19326232269358, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.19326232269358, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.024044322225107804, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999973, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.843127923288584, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.843127923288584, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.843127923288584, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.003259695682198218, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.9999999999999996, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": 1.2223134940003249, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "ABOVE", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.0012124362276806743, "criticality_score": 0.0009919192037328127, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -1777.5037622062482, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -196.51970285590093, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 629.8886793557215, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Haley Stevens": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 46.474200664652585, "expected_final_county_share_points": 46.47420066465259, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 47.69651415865292, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 47.69651415865292, "required_final_county_share_points": 47.69651415865291, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 47.69651415865292, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1597.5925750962513, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 47.69651415865292, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 47.69651415865292, "required_final_county_share_points": 47.69651415865291, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 47.69651415865292, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.34666819922362, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.34666819922362, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.34666819922362, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.07865391656842785, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.999999999999999, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.996956844964686, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.996956844964686, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.996956844964686, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.10597932088248406, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -1.222313494000332, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.0012124362276806743, "criticality_score": 0.0009919192037328068, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1872.7435256677536, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 3453.7275850181004, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 4280.135967229724, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Mallory McMorrow": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 4.760236538494406, "expected_final_county_share_points": 4.760236538494406, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 36.68463407623901, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 36.68463407623901, "required_final_county_share_points": 36.68463407623901, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 36.68463407623901, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 37351.13752938067, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 36.68463407623901, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 36.68463407623901, "required_final_county_share_points": 36.68463407623901, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 36.68463407623901, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 37.29887475682021, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 37.29887475682021, "required_final_county_share_points": 37.29887475682021, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.159018308558073, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999906, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 37.909499380383444, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 37.909499380383444, "required_final_county_share_points": 37.90949938038344, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.213613509684069, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.999999999999993, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -31.9243975377446, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "WELL BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.0012124362276806743, "criticality_score": 3.7978358910209544e-05, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1831.0295615415955, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 3412.0136208919425, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 4238.422003103566, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } } } }, { "cid": "fips:26045", "county": "Eaton", "fips": "26045", "reporting": 92.34, "current_votes": 15102, "current_candidate_votes": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 7203, "Haley Stevens": 7006, "Mallory McMorrow": 893 }, "current_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 47.695669447755265, "Haley Stevens": 46.39120646272017, "Mallory McMorrow": 5.913124089524566 }, "estimated_remaining_votes": 1484.270588417996, "estimated_final_votes": 16586.270588417996, "turnout_disagreement_votes": 0.0, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 48.06409868224863, "Haley Stevens": 46.58482593648643, "Mallory McMorrow": 5.351075381264948 }, "remaining_sources": [ { "model": "v3", "remaining_votes": 1484.270588417996, "weight": 0.1342208488636769 }, { "model": "histgeo", "remaining_votes": 1484.270588417996, "weight": 0.05994207394479305 }, { "model": "latent", "remaining_votes": 1484.270588417996, "weight": 0.07672787409296966 }, { "model": "batchbias", "remaining_votes": 1484.270588417996, "weight": 0.045123489075924846 } ], "share_sources": [ { "model": "v0", "weight": 0.03630604611298715, "source": "statewide raw" }, { "model": "v1", "weight": 0.14599140026529184, "source": "county live" }, { "model": "v3", "weight": 0.15004242351696637, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "market", "weight": 0.0786646379365536, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "histgeo", "weight": 0.06573339512824654, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "latent", "weight": 0.08483492578364633, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "batchbias", "weight": 0.04883898267529022, "source": "county remaining" } ], "candidate_benchmarks": { "Abdul El-Sayed": { "opponent": "Haley Stevens", "expected_remaining_share_points": 48.06409868224863, "expected_final_county_share_points": 47.72863940768427, "current_county_share_points": 47.695669447755265, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 46.84922443905993, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 46.84922443905993, "required_final_county_share_points": 47.61992285816345, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 46.84922443905993, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": -1507.4344243122302, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": false }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 46.84922443905993, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 46.84922443905993, "required_final_county_share_points": 47.61992285816345, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 46.84922443905993, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 47.495215862592346, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 47.495215862592346, "required_final_county_share_points": 47.67773127659049, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.024044322225107804, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999973, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.141209481717006, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.141209481717006, "required_final_county_share_points": 47.73553989149648, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.003259695682198218, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.9999999999999996, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": 1.2148742431886959, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "ABOVE", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.0012090221127061145, "criticality_score": 0.000995182933118064, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -1783.3623639650239, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -197.91381939571988, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 630.8282283486985, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Haley Stevens": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 46.58482593648643, "expected_final_county_share_points": 46.40853306358106, "current_county_share_points": 46.39120646272017, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 47.79970017967511, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 47.79970017967511, "required_final_county_share_points": 46.51724961310188, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 47.79970017967511, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1602.0833489309653, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 47.79970017967511, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 47.79970017967511, "required_final_county_share_points": 46.51724961310188, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 47.79970017967511, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.445683001053254, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.445683001053254, "required_final_county_share_points": 46.57505726174017, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.07865391656842785, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.999999999999999, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 49.091650802664844, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 49.091650802664844, "required_final_county_share_points": 46.632863566291036, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.10597932088248406, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -1.2148742431886816, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.0012090221127061145, "criticality_score": 0.0009951829331180757, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1878.0112885837589, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 3463.459833153063, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 4292.201880897482, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Mallory McMorrow": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 5.351075381264948, "expected_final_county_share_points": 5.862827528734668, "current_county_share_points": 5.913124089524566, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 38.0852555421124, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 38.0852555421124, "required_final_county_share_points": 8.792140697099898, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 38.0852555421124, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 37457.189488099604, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 38.0852555421124, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 38.0852555421124, "required_final_county_share_points": 8.792140697099898, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 38.0852555421124, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 38.66607228508408, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 38.66607228508408, "required_final_county_share_points": 8.844116769976436, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.159018308558073, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999906, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 39.24178105195122, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 39.24178105195122, "required_final_county_share_points": 8.895635740778225, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.213613509684069, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.999999999999993, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -32.73418016084745, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "WELL BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.0012090221127061145, "criticality_score": 3.693454690984429e-05, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1836.7775380285375, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 3422.226082597841, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 4250.96813034226, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } } } }, { "cid": "26141", "county": "26141", "fips": null, "reporting": 0.0, "current_votes": 0, "current_candidate_votes": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 0, "Haley Stevens": 0, "Mallory McMorrow": 0 }, "current_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": null, "Haley Stevens": null, "Mallory McMorrow": null }, "estimated_remaining_votes": 1451.5801453614304, "estimated_final_votes": 1451.5801453614304, "turnout_disagreement_votes": 0.0, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 44.49545659611195, "Haley Stevens": 51.19162968761485, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.312913716273204 }, "remaining_sources": [ { "model": "market", "remaining_votes": 1451.5801453614304, "weight": 0.1780093144963334 } ], "share_sources": [ { "model": "v0", "weight": 0.03630604611298715, "source": "statewide raw" }, { "model": "v3", "weight": 0.06301781787712588, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "market", "weight": 0.18729675699179427, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "histgeo", "weight": 0.02760802595386354, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "latent", "weight": 0.03563066882913146, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "batchbias", "weight": 0.020512372723621893, "source": "statewide fallback" } ], "candidate_benchmarks": { "Abdul El-Sayed": { "opponent": "Haley Stevens", "expected_remaining_share_points": 44.49545659611195, "expected_final_county_share_points": 44.49545659611195, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 43.27565444415839, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 43.27565444415839, "required_final_county_share_points": 43.27565444415839, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 43.27565444415839, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": -1546.033812756408, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": false }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 43.27565444415839, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 43.27565444415839, "required_final_county_share_points": 43.27565444415839, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 43.27565444415839, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 43.92359924936351, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 43.92359924936351, "required_final_county_share_points": 43.92359924936351, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.024044322225107804, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999973, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 44.57306120286155, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 44.57306120286155, "required_final_county_share_points": 44.57306120286155, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.003259695682198218, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.9999999999999996, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": 1.2198021519535587, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "ABOVE", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.00118239390297269, "criticality_score": 0.0009693325274750844, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -1828.1758127404603, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -207.02202962061628, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 640.3837789963544, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Haley Stevens": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 51.19162968761485, "expected_final_county_share_points": 51.19162968761485, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 52.4114318395684, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 52.4114318395684, "required_final_county_share_points": 52.4114318395684, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 52.4114318395684, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1641.720899040135, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 52.4114318395684, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 52.4114318395684, "required_final_county_share_points": 52.4114318395684, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 52.4114318395684, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 53.057858402878686, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 53.057858402878686, "required_final_county_share_points": 53.057858402878686, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.07865391656842785, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.999999999999999, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 53.70276565449549, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 53.70276565449549, "required_final_county_share_points": 53.70276565449549, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.10597932088248406, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -1.2198021519535516, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.00118239390297269, "criticality_score": 0.00096933252747509, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1923.862899024187, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 3545.0166821440307, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 4392.422490761002, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Mallory McMorrow": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 4.312913716273204, "expected_final_county_share_points": 4.312913716273204, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 33.377220084490844, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 33.377220084490844, "required_final_county_share_points": 33.377220084490844, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 33.377220084490844, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 38299.58886924408, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 33.377220084490844, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 33.377220084490844, "required_final_county_share_points": 33.377220084490844, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 33.377220084490844, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 33.93882994982512, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 33.93882994982512, "required_final_county_share_points": 33.93882994982512, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.159018308558073, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999906, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 34.49722375388291, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 34.49722375388291, "required_final_county_share_points": 34.49722375388291, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.213613509684069, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.999999999999993, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -29.06430636821764, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "WELL BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.00118239390297269, "criticality_score": 4.068199281940063e-05, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1876.9841830528455, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 3498.137966172689, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 4345.54377478966, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } } } }, { "cid": "fips:26141", "county": "Presque Isle", "fips": "26141", "reporting": 21.17, "current_votes": 344, "current_candidate_votes": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 107, "Haley Stevens": 219, "Mallory McMorrow": 18 }, "current_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 31.1046511627907, "Haley Stevens": 63.662790697674424, "Mallory McMorrow": 5.232558139534884 }, "estimated_remaining_votes": 1451.5801453614304, "estimated_final_votes": 1795.5801453614304, "turnout_disagreement_votes": 0.0, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 40.046781280512405, "Haley Stevens": 55.40365979279625, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.549558926691354 }, "remaining_sources": [ { "model": "v3", "remaining_votes": 1451.5801453614304, "weight": 0.1342208488636769 }, { "model": "histgeo", "remaining_votes": 1451.5801453614304, "weight": 0.05994207394479305 }, { "model": "latent", "remaining_votes": 1451.5801453614304, "weight": 0.07672787409296966 }, { "model": "batchbias", "remaining_votes": 1451.5801453614304, "weight": 0.045123489075924846 } ], "share_sources": [ { "model": "v0", "weight": 0.03630604611298715, "source": "statewide raw" }, { "model": "v1", "weight": 0.14599140026529184, "source": "county live" }, { "model": "v3", "weight": 0.15004242351696637, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "market", "weight": 0.0786646379365536, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "histgeo", "weight": 0.06573339512824654, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "latent", "weight": 0.08483492578364633, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "batchbias", "weight": 0.04883898267529022, "source": "county remaining" } ], "candidate_benchmarks": { "Abdul El-Sayed": { "opponent": "Haley Stevens", "expected_remaining_share_points": 40.046781280512405, "expected_final_county_share_points": 38.33363426869964, "current_county_share_points": 31.1046511627907, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 38.85842720902756, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 38.85842720902756, "required_final_county_share_points": 37.37294689404636, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 38.85842720902756, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": -1550.4824880720075, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": false }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 38.85842720902756, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 38.85842720902756, "required_final_county_share_points": 37.37294689404636, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 38.85842720902756, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 39.48897862890483, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 39.48897862890483, "required_final_county_share_points": 37.88269630517001, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.024044322225107804, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999973, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 40.12257246595796, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 40.12257246595796, "required_final_county_share_points": 38.39490526251764, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.003259695682198218, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.9999999999999996, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": 1.188354071484845, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "ABOVE", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.00118239390297269, "criticality_score": 0.0009949845179520378, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -1832.6244880560598, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -211.47070493621584, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 635.9351036807549, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Haley Stevens": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 55.40365979279625, "expected_final_county_share_points": 56.9859567671851, "current_county_share_points": 63.662790697674424, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 56.592013864281085, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 56.592013864281085, "required_final_county_share_points": 57.94664414183838, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 56.592013864281085, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1645.9329291453162, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 56.592013864281085, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 56.592013864281085, "required_final_county_share_points": 57.94664414183838, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 56.592013864281085, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 57.21953851968533, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 57.21953851968533, "required_final_county_share_points": 58.45394666067205, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.07865391656842785, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.999999999999999, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 57.84405196216951, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 57.84405196216951, "required_final_county_share_points": 58.95881485937829, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.10597932088248406, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -1.188354071484838, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.00118239390297269, "criticality_score": 0.0009949845179520436, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1928.0749291293687, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 3549.228712249212, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 4396.634520866183, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Mallory McMorrow": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 4.549558926691354, "expected_final_county_share_points": 4.680408964115266, "current_county_share_points": 5.232558139534884, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 31.98111180354053, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 31.98111180354053, "required_final_county_share_points": 26.85658284047061, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 31.98111180354053, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 38299.825514454504, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 31.98111180354053, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 31.98111180354053, "required_final_county_share_points": 26.85658284047061, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 31.98111180354053, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 32.461731370323626, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 32.461731370323626, "required_final_county_share_points": 27.245124573022533, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.159018308558073, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999906, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 32.93791657182699, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 32.93791657182699, "required_final_county_share_points": 27.630081482800605, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.213613509684069, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.999999999999993, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -27.431552876849175, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "WELL BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.00118239390297269, "criticality_score": 4.31034257623297e-05, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1877.2208282632637, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 3498.374611383107, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 4345.780420000078, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } } } }, { "cid": "26057", "county": "26057", "fips": null, "reporting": 0.0, "current_votes": 0, "current_candidate_votes": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 0, "Haley Stevens": 0, "Mallory McMorrow": 0 }, "current_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": null, "Haley Stevens": null, "Mallory McMorrow": null }, "estimated_remaining_votes": 1397.8102766628867, "estimated_final_votes": 1397.8102766628867, "turnout_disagreement_votes": 0.0, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 45.71366837579237, "Haley Stevens": 49.51054752463013, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.775784099577507 }, "remaining_sources": [ { "model": "market", "remaining_votes": 1397.8102766628867, "weight": 0.1780093144963334 } ], "share_sources": [ { "model": "v0", "weight": 0.03630604611298715, "source": "statewide raw" }, { "model": "v3", "weight": 0.06301781787712588, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "market", "weight": 0.18729675699179427, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "histgeo", "weight": 0.02760802595386354, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "latent", "weight": 0.03563066882913146, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "batchbias", "weight": 0.020512372723621893, "source": "statewide fallback" } ], "candidate_benchmarks": { "Abdul El-Sayed": { "opponent": "Haley Stevens", "expected_remaining_share_points": 45.71366837579237, "expected_final_county_share_points": 45.71366837579237, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 44.494792079836195, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 44.494792079836195, "required_final_county_share_points": 44.494792079836195, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 44.494792079836195, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": -1605.9988326370715, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": false }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 44.494792079836195, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 44.494792079836195, "required_final_county_share_points": 44.494792079836195, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 44.494792079836195, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 45.142479302794236, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 45.142479302794236, "required_final_county_share_points": 45.142479302794236, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.024044322225107804, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999973, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 45.79115045998886, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 45.79115045998886, "required_final_county_share_points": 45.79115045998886, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.003259695682198218, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.9999999999999996, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": 1.2188762959561785, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "ABOVE", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.0011385953120950434, "criticality_score": 0.0009341352488948383, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -1898.9940496469037, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -215.47899510572776, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 664.5241550993294, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Haley Stevens": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 49.51054752463013, "expected_final_county_share_points": 49.51054752463012, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 50.729423820586305, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 50.729423820586305, "required_final_county_share_points": 50.729423820586305, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 50.729423820586305, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1701.2230485374935, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 50.729423820586305, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 50.729423820586305, "required_final_county_share_points": 50.729423820586305, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 50.729423820586305, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 51.37612293749878, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 51.37612293749878, "required_final_county_share_points": 51.37612293749878, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.07865391656842785, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.999999999999999, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 52.02182979746676, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 52.02182979746676, "required_final_county_share_points": 52.02182979746676, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.10597932088248406, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -1.2188762959561785, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.0011385953120950434, "criticality_score": 0.0009341352488948383, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1994.2182655473262, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 3677.733320088502, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 4557.736470293559, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Mallory McMorrow": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 4.775784099577507, "expected_final_county_share_points": 4.775784099577507, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 35.33330336541867, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 35.33330336541867, "required_final_county_share_points": 35.33330336541867, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 35.33330336541867, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 39773.16436033238, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 35.33330336541867, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 35.33330336541867, "required_final_county_share_points": 35.33330336541867, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 35.33330336541867, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 35.897309697827865, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 35.897309697827865, "required_final_county_share_points": 35.897309697827865, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.159018308558073, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999906, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 36.45713713466048, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 36.45713713466048, "required_final_county_share_points": 36.45713713466048, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.213613509684069, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.999999999999993, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -30.557519265841165, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "WELL BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.0011385953120950434, "criticality_score": 3.726072467433004e-05, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1949.4835021222736, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 3632.998556663449, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 4513.0017068685065, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } } } }, { "cid": "fips:26057", "county": "Gratiot", "fips": "26057", "reporting": 52.459999999999994, "current_votes": 1835, "current_candidate_votes": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 746, "Haley Stevens": 973, "Mallory McMorrow": 116 }, "current_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 40.653950953678475, "Haley Stevens": 53.02452316076294, "Mallory McMorrow": 6.321525885558583 }, "estimated_remaining_votes": 1397.8102766628867, "estimated_final_votes": 3232.8102766628867, "turnout_disagreement_votes": 0.0, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 43.66830054096196, "Haley Stevens": 50.879047295444735, "Mallory McMorrow": 5.452652163593299 }, "remaining_sources": [ { "model": "v3", "remaining_votes": 1397.8102766628867, "weight": 0.1342208488636769 }, { "model": "histgeo", "remaining_votes": 1397.8102766628867, "weight": 0.05994207394479305 }, { "model": "latent", "remaining_votes": 1397.8102766628867, "weight": 0.07672787409296966 }, { "model": "batchbias", "remaining_votes": 1397.8102766628867, "weight": 0.045123489075924846 } ], "share_sources": [ { "model": "v0", "weight": 0.03630604611298715, "source": "statewide raw" }, { "model": "v1", "weight": 0.14599140026529184, "source": "county live" }, { "model": "v3", "weight": 0.15004242351696637, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "market", "weight": 0.0786646379365536, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "histgeo", "weight": 0.06573339512824654, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "latent", "weight": 0.08483492578364633, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "batchbias", "weight": 0.04883898267529022, "source": "county remaining" } ], "candidate_benchmarks": { "Abdul El-Sayed": { "opponent": "Haley Stevens", "expected_remaining_share_points": 43.66830054096196, "expected_final_county_share_points": 41.95730267245265, "current_county_share_points": 40.653950953678475, "recent_batch_votes": 78, "recent_batch_share_points": 28.205128205128204, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 42.46433495773232, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 42.46433495773232, "required_final_county_share_points": 41.43672914014997, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 42.46433495773232, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": -1608.0442004719027, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": false }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 42.46433495773232, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 42.46433495773232, "required_final_county_share_points": 41.43672914014997, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 42.46433495773232, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 43.10381927631105, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 43.10381927631105, "required_final_county_share_points": 41.71323090665537, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.024044322225107804, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999973, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 43.7449107363457, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 43.7449107363457, "required_final_county_share_points": 41.99042757284584, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.003259695682198218, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.9999999999999996, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": 1.203965583229639, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -14.259206752604115, "status": "ABOVE", "recent_status": "WELL BELOW", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.0011385953120950434, "criticality_score": 0.000945704202806828, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -1901.039417481734, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -217.52436294055818, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 662.4787872644989, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Haley Stevens": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 50.879047295444735, "expected_final_county_share_points": 52.09685715000969, "current_county_share_points": 53.02452316076294, "recent_batch_votes": 78, "recent_batch_share_points": 70.51282051282051, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 52.08301287867438, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 52.08301287867438, "required_final_county_share_points": 52.617430682312374, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 52.08301287867438, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1702.5915483083093, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 52.08301287867438, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 52.08301287867438, "required_final_county_share_points": 52.617430682312374, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 52.08301287867438, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 52.720889773332345, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 52.720889773332345, "required_final_county_share_points": 52.89323742699988, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.07865391656842785, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.999999999999999, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 53.3571589836196, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 53.3571589836196, "required_final_county_share_points": 53.168349037255524, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.10597932088248406, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -1.203965583229646, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": 18.42980763414613, "status": "BELOW", "recent_status": "WELL ABOVE", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.0011385953120950434, "criticality_score": 0.0009457042028068225, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1995.5867653181408, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 3679.1018198593165, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 4559.104970064374, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Mallory McMorrow": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 5.452652163593299, "expected_final_county_share_points": 5.945840177537663, "current_county_share_points": 6.321525885558583, "recent_batch_votes": 78, "recent_batch_share_points": 1.282051282051282, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 36.14784228974252, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 36.14784228974252, "required_final_county_share_points": 19.217900252384652, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 36.14784228974252, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 39773.84122839639, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 36.14784228974252, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 36.14784228974252, "required_final_county_share_points": 19.217900252384652, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 36.14784228974252, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 36.65452821074907, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 36.65452821074907, "required_final_county_share_points": 19.43698232860054, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.159018308558073, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999906, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 37.155544642236556, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 37.155544642236556, "required_final_county_share_points": 19.65361301731299, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.213613509684069, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.999999999999993, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -30.69519012614922, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -34.865791007691236, "status": "WELL BELOW", "recent_status": "WELL BELOW", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.0011385953120950434, "criticality_score": 3.709360676430782e-05, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1950.1603701862894, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 3633.6754247274653, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 4513.678574932523, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } } } }, { "cid": "fips:26023", "county": "Branch", "fips": "26023", "reporting": 45.38, "current_votes": 1514, "current_candidate_votes": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 567, "Haley Stevens": 868, "Mallory McMorrow": 79 }, "current_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 37.45046235138705, "Haley Stevens": 57.33157199471598, "Mallory McMorrow": 5.217965653896962 }, "estimated_remaining_votes": 1328.9638581037907, "estimated_final_votes": 2842.9638581037907, "turnout_disagreement_votes": 0.0, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 41.89518609345106, "Haley Stevens": 53.41155199201151, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.6932619145374295 }, "remaining_sources": [ { "model": "v3", "remaining_votes": 1328.9638581037907, "weight": 0.1342208488636769 }, { "model": "histgeo", "remaining_votes": 1328.9638581037907, "weight": 0.05994207394479305 }, { "model": "latent", "remaining_votes": 1328.9638581037907, "weight": 0.07672787409296966 }, { "model": "batchbias", "remaining_votes": 1328.9638581037907, "weight": 0.045123489075924846 } ], "share_sources": [ { "model": "v0", "weight": 0.03630604611298715, "source": "statewide raw" }, { "model": "v1", "weight": 0.14599140026529184, "source": "county live" }, { "model": "v3", "weight": 0.15004242351696637, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "market", "weight": 0.0786646379365536, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "histgeo", "weight": 0.06573339512824654, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "latent", "weight": 0.08483492578364633, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "batchbias", "weight": 0.04883898267529022, "source": "county remaining" } ], "candidate_benchmarks": { "Abdul El-Sayed": { "opponent": "Haley Stevens", "expected_remaining_share_points": 41.89518609345106, "expected_final_county_share_points": 39.52818036233591, "current_county_share_points": 37.45046235138705, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 40.69364585753238, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 40.69364585753238, "required_final_county_share_points": 38.966511756158674, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 40.69364585753238, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": -1695.3835923547356, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": false }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 40.69364585753238, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 40.69364585753238, "required_final_county_share_points": 38.966511756158674, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 40.69364585753238, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 41.331500515700704, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 41.331500515700704, "required_final_county_share_points": 39.264681493706526, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.024044322225107804, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999973, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 41.97173481245679, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 41.97173481245679, "required_final_county_share_points": 39.56396361038979, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.003259695682198218, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.9999999999999996, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": 1.201540235918678, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "ABOVE", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.0010825160209819013, "criticality_score": 0.0009009403003089841, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -2003.557304417737, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -232.8284544157449, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 692.7628920693714, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Haley Stevens": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 53.41155199201151, "expected_final_county_share_points": 55.499130512286136, "current_county_share_points": 57.33157199471598, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 54.61309222793018, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 54.61309222793018, "required_final_county_share_points": 56.06079911846338, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 54.61309222793018, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1790.6903304401983, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 54.61309222793018, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 54.61309222793018, "required_final_county_share_points": 56.06079911846338, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 54.61309222793018, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 55.248574199199396, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 55.248574199199396, "required_final_county_share_points": 56.35785972649258, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.07865391656842785, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.999999999999999, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 55.88169041937995, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 55.88169041937995, "required_final_county_share_points": 56.65381444719747, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.10597932088248406, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -1.2015402359186709, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.0010825160209819013, "criticality_score": 0.0009009403003089894, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 2098.8640425031995, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 3869.5928925051912, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 4795.184238990308, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Mallory McMorrow": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 4.6932619145374295, "expected_final_county_share_points": 4.972689125377945, "current_county_share_points": 5.217965653896962, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 33.27674958666581, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 33.27674958666581, "required_final_county_share_points": 18.33424556814967, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 33.27674958666581, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 41833.266626954646, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 33.27674958666581, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 33.27674958666581, "required_final_county_share_points": 18.33424556814967, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 33.27674958666581, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 33.78196194462779, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 33.78196194462779, "required_final_county_share_points": 18.570410710553798, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.159018308558073, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999906, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 34.28266415700371, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 34.28266415700371, "required_final_county_share_points": 18.804467553036496, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.213613509684069, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.999999999999993, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -28.583487672128378, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "WELL BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.0010825160209819013, "criticality_score": 3.7872076123077784e-05, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 2050.1457524257253, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 3820.874602427717, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 4746.4659489128335, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } } } }, { "cid": "26023", "county": "26023", "fips": null, "reporting": 0.0, "current_votes": 0, "current_candidate_votes": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 0, "Haley Stevens": 0, "Mallory McMorrow": 0 }, "current_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": null, "Haley Stevens": null, "Mallory McMorrow": null }, "estimated_remaining_votes": 1328.9638581037907, "estimated_final_votes": 1328.9638581037907, "turnout_disagreement_votes": 0.0, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 45.96531612487444, "Haley Stevens": 49.75912812341987, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.2755557517057 }, "remaining_sources": [ { "model": "market", "remaining_votes": 1328.9638581037907, "weight": 0.1780093144963334 } ], "share_sources": [ { "model": "v0", "weight": 0.03630604611298715, "source": "statewide raw" }, { "model": "v3", "weight": 0.06301781787712588, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "market", "weight": 0.18729675699179427, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "histgeo", "weight": 0.02760802595386354, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "latent", "weight": 0.03563066882913146, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "batchbias", "weight": 0.020512372723621893, "source": "statewide fallback" } ], "candidate_benchmarks": { "Abdul El-Sayed": { "opponent": "Haley Stevens", "expected_remaining_share_points": 45.96531612487444, "expected_final_county_share_points": 45.96531612487444, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 44.740005862807976, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 44.740005862807976, "required_final_county_share_points": 44.74000586280797, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 44.740005862807976, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": -1691.3134623233084, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": false }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 44.740005862807976, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 44.740005862807976, "required_final_county_share_points": 44.74000586280797, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 44.740005862807976, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 45.39111385141064, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 45.39111385141064, "required_final_county_share_points": 45.39111385141064, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.024044322225107804, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999973, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 46.04320669570189, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 46.04320669570189, "required_final_county_share_points": 46.04320669570189, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.003259695682198218, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.9999999999999996, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": 1.2253102620664649, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "ABOVE", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.0010825160209819013, "criticality_score": 0.0008834627885644706, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -1999.4871743863137, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -228.7583243843215, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 696.8330221007948, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Haley Stevens": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 49.75912812341987, "expected_final_county_share_points": 49.75912812341987, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 50.98443838548633, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 50.98443838548633, "required_final_county_share_points": 50.98443838548633, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 50.98443838548633, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1787.037906571603, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 50.98443838548633, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 50.98443838548633, "required_final_county_share_points": 50.98443838548633, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 50.98443838548633, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 51.6345573051189, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 51.6345573051189, "required_final_county_share_points": 51.6345573051189, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.07865391656842785, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.999999999999999, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 52.283682963440306, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 52.283682963440306, "required_final_county_share_points": 52.283682963440306, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.10597932088248406, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -1.2253102620664578, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.0010825160209819013, "criticality_score": 0.0008834627885644757, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 2095.211618634608, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 3865.9404686365997, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 4791.531815121716, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Mallory McMorrow": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 4.2755557517057, "expected_final_county_share_points": 4.2755557517057, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 33.905955789869566, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 33.905955789869566, "required_final_county_share_points": 33.905955789869566, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 33.905955789869566, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 41832.84892079181, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 33.905955789869566, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 33.905955789869566, "required_final_county_share_points": 33.905955789869566, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 33.905955789869566, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 34.49293643106823, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 34.49293643106823, "required_final_county_share_points": 34.49293643106823, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.159018308558073, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999906, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 35.07711214446507, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 35.07711214446507, "required_final_county_share_points": 35.07711214446507, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.213613509684069, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.999999999999993, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -29.630400038163867, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "WELL BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.0010825160209819013, "criticality_score": 3.653396577797208e-05, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 2049.7280462628937, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 3820.4568962648855, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 4746.048242750002, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } } } }, { "cid": "26031", "county": "26031", "fips": null, "reporting": 0.0, "current_votes": 0, "current_candidate_votes": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 0, "Haley Stevens": 0, "Mallory McMorrow": 0 }, "current_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": null, "Haley Stevens": null, "Mallory McMorrow": null }, "estimated_remaining_votes": 1277.7034008361702, "estimated_final_votes": 1277.7034008361702, "turnout_disagreement_votes": 0.0, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 46.25878790280384, "Haley Stevens": 49.62975324012126, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.1114588570749016 }, "remaining_sources": [ { "model": "market", "remaining_votes": 1277.7034008361702, "weight": 0.1780093144963334 } ], "share_sources": [ { "model": "v0", "weight": 0.03630604611298715, "source": "statewide raw" }, { "model": "v3", "weight": 0.06301781787712588, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "market", "weight": 0.18729675699179427, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "histgeo", "weight": 0.02760802595386354, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "latent", "weight": 0.03563066882913146, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "batchbias", "weight": 0.020512372723621893, "source": "statewide fallback" } ], "candidate_benchmarks": { "Abdul El-Sayed": { "opponent": "Haley Stevens", "expected_remaining_share_points": 46.25878790280384, "expected_final_county_share_points": 46.25878790280384, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 45.03082448501172, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 45.03082448501172, "required_final_county_share_points": 45.03082448501172, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 45.03082448501172, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": -1760.718251132546, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": false }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 45.03082448501172, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 45.03082448501172, "required_final_county_share_points": 45.03082448501172, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 45.03082448501172, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 45.68337742194211, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 45.68337742194211, "required_final_county_share_points": 45.68337742194211, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.024044322225107804, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999973, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 46.33683759790625, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 46.33683759790625, "required_final_county_share_points": 46.33683759790625, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.003259695682198218, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.9999999999999996, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": 1.2279634177921182, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "ABOVE", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.0010407614872549775, "criticality_score": 0.0008475508896887741, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -2081.255650564521, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -239.48654936755813, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 723.2387952212882, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Haley Stevens": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 49.62975324012126, "expected_final_county_share_points": 49.62975324012126, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 50.85771665791338, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 50.85771665791338, "required_final_county_share_points": 50.85771665791338, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 50.85771665791338, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1856.6067922754708, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 50.85771665791338, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 50.85771665791338, "required_final_county_share_points": 50.85771665791338, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 50.85771665791338, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 51.50935778564551, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 51.50935778564551, "required_final_county_share_points": 51.50935778564551, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.07865391656842785, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.999999999999999, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 52.16008255337068, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 52.16008255337068, "required_final_county_share_points": 52.16008255337068, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.10597932088248406, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -1.2279634177921182, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.0010407614872549775, "criticality_score": 0.0008475508896887741, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 2177.144191707446, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 4018.9132929044085, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 4981.638637493255, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Mallory McMorrow": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 4.1114588570749016, "expected_final_county_share_points": 4.1114588570749016, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 33.486436232129755, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 33.486436232129755, "required_final_county_share_points": 33.486436232129755, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 33.486436232129755, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 43510.81434608595, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 33.486436232129755, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 33.486436232129755, "required_final_county_share_points": 33.486436232129755, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 33.486436232129755, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 34.08441547908403, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 34.08441547908403, "required_final_county_share_points": 34.08441547908403, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.159018308558073, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999906, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 34.68017409211269, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 34.68017409211269, "required_final_county_share_points": 34.68017409211269, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.213613509684069, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.999999999999993, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -29.374977375054854, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "WELL BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.0010407614872549775, "criticality_score": 3.5430205578261626e-05, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 2131.6258973244, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 3973.394998521362, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 4936.1203431102085, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } } } }, { "cid": "fips:26031", "county": "Cheboygan", "fips": "26031", "reporting": 57.26, "current_votes": 1621, "current_candidate_votes": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 682, "Haley Stevens": 867, "Mallory McMorrow": 72 }, "current_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 42.07279457125232, "Haley Stevens": 53.48550277606415, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.441702652683529 }, "estimated_remaining_votes": 1277.7034008361702, "estimated_final_votes": 2898.70340083617, "turnout_disagreement_votes": 0.0, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 44.43260361080989, "Haley Stevens": 51.331470258170484, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.235926131019626 }, "remaining_sources": [ { "model": "v3", "remaining_votes": 1277.7034008361702, "weight": 0.1342208488636769 }, { "model": "histgeo", "remaining_votes": 1277.7034008361702, "weight": 0.05994207394479305 }, { "model": "latent", "remaining_votes": 1277.7034008361702, "weight": 0.07672787409296966 }, { "model": "batchbias", "remaining_votes": 1277.7034008361702, "weight": 0.045123489075924846 } ], "share_sources": [ { "model": "v0", "weight": 0.03630604611298715, "source": "statewide raw" }, { "model": "v1", "weight": 0.14599140026529184, "source": "county live" }, { "model": "v3", "weight": 0.15004242351696637, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "market", "weight": 0.0786646379365536, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "histgeo", "weight": 0.06573339512824654, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "latent", "weight": 0.08483492578364633, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "batchbias", "weight": 0.04883898267529022, "source": "county remaining" } ], "candidate_benchmarks": { "Abdul El-Sayed": { "opponent": "Haley Stevens", "expected_remaining_share_points": 44.43260361080989, "expected_final_county_share_points": 43.11296171436082, "current_county_share_points": 42.07279457125232, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 43.21224342521124, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 43.21224342521124, "required_final_county_share_points": 42.5750459141673, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 43.21224342521124, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": -1762.5444354245406, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": false }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 43.21224342521124, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 43.21224342521124, "required_final_county_share_points": 42.5750459141673, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 43.21224342521124, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 43.86046860938662, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 43.86046860938662, "required_final_county_share_points": 42.86077349915913, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.024044322225107804, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999973, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 44.51024807925615, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 44.51024807925615, "required_final_county_share_points": 43.147186189124696, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.003259695682198218, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.9999999999999996, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": 1.2203601855986506, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "ABOVE", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.0010407614872549775, "criticality_score": 0.0008528314013656793, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -2083.081834856515, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -241.31273365955207, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 721.4126109292943, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Haley Stevens": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 51.331470258170484, "expected_final_county_share_points": 52.53603872505759, "current_county_share_points": 53.48550277606415, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 52.551830443769134, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 52.551830443769134, "required_final_county_share_points": 53.0739545252511, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 52.551830443769134, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1858.308509293521, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 52.551830443769134, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 52.551830443769134, "required_final_county_share_points": 53.0739545252511, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 52.551830443769134, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 53.19850050667427, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 53.19850050667427, "required_final_county_share_points": 53.358996636960256, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.07865391656842785, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.999999999999999, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 53.843614636146434, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 53.843614636146434, "required_final_county_share_points": 53.643352917398005, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.10597932088248406, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -1.2203601855986506, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.0010407614872549775, "criticality_score": 0.0008528314013656793, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 2178.8459087254955, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 4020.615009922458, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 4983.340354511304, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Mallory McMorrow": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 4.235926131019626, "expected_final_county_share_points": 4.350999560581604, "current_county_share_points": 4.441702652683529, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 33.10641097976982, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 33.10641097976982, "required_final_county_share_points": 17.076660511059124, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 33.10641097976982, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 43510.93881335989, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 33.10641097976982, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 33.10641097976982, "required_final_county_share_points": 17.076660511059124, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 33.10641097976982, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 33.66991416855289, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 33.66991416855289, "required_final_county_share_points": 17.325043957424306, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.159018308558073, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999906, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 34.23040458039887, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 34.23040458039887, "required_final_county_share_points": 17.57209941854706, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.213613509684069, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.999999999999993, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -28.870484848750195, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "WELL BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.0010407614872549775, "criticality_score": 3.6049324862655785e-05, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 2131.7503645983447, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 3973.519465795307, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 4936.244810384153, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } } } }, { "cid": "26059", "county": "26059", "fips": null, "reporting": 0.0, "current_votes": 0, "current_candidate_votes": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 0, "Haley Stevens": 0, "Mallory McMorrow": 0 }, "current_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": null, "Haley Stevens": null, "Mallory McMorrow": null }, "estimated_remaining_votes": 1264.1567787725116, "estimated_final_votes": 1264.1567787725116, "turnout_disagreement_votes": 0.0, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 47.90680563223135, "Haley Stevens": 47.366648033244054, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.726546334524606 }, "remaining_sources": [ { "model": "market", "remaining_votes": 1264.1567787725116, "weight": 0.1780093144963334 } ], "share_sources": [ { "model": "v0", "weight": 0.03630604611298715, "source": "statewide raw" }, { "model": "v3", "weight": 0.06301781787712588, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "market", "weight": 0.18729675699179427, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "histgeo", "weight": 0.02760802595386354, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "latent", "weight": 0.03563066882913146, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "batchbias", "weight": 0.020512372723621893, "source": "statewide fallback" } ], "candidate_benchmarks": { "Abdul El-Sayed": { "opponent": "Haley Stevens", "expected_remaining_share_points": 47.90680563223135, "expected_final_county_share_points": 47.90680563223135, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 46.6839684484235, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 46.6839684484235, "required_final_county_share_points": 46.6839684484235, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 46.6839684484235, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": -1778.4336821751097, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": false }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 46.6839684484235, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 46.6839684484235, "required_final_county_share_points": 46.6839684484235, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 46.6839684484235, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 47.3341161918114, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 47.3341161918114, "required_final_county_share_points": 47.334116191811404, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.024044322225107804, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999973, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 47.98444296679915, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 47.98444296679915, "required_final_county_share_points": 47.98444296679915, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.003259695682198218, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.9999999999999996, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": 1.2228371838078473, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "ABOVE", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.0010297269995037297, "criticality_score": 0.0008420802156974134, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -2102.4059395932777, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -240.90056014239008, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 732.1412868085398, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Haley Stevens": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 47.366648033244054, "expected_final_county_share_points": 47.36664803324406, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.589485217051916, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.589485217051916, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.58948521705192, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 48.589485217051916, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1873.707135840585, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.589485217051916, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.589485217051916, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.58948521705192, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 48.589485217051916, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 49.23944755759535, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 49.23944755759535, "required_final_county_share_points": 49.23944755759535, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.07865391656842785, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.999999999999999, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 49.88921811990241, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 49.88921811990241, "required_final_county_share_points": 49.88921811990241, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.10597932088248406, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -1.2228371838078615, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.0010297269995037297, "criticality_score": 0.0008420802156974037, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 2197.679393258753, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 4059.18477270964, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 5032.226619660571, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Mallory McMorrow": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 4.726546334524606, "expected_final_county_share_points": 4.726546334524606, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 36.19378079591451, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 36.19378079591451, "required_final_county_share_points": 36.19378079591451, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 36.19378079591451, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 43977.64444039304, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 36.19378079591451, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 36.19378079591451, "required_final_county_share_points": 36.19378079591451, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 36.19378079591451, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 36.79530869719677, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 36.79530869719677, "required_final_county_share_points": 36.79530869719677, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.159018308558073, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999906, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 37.39314977634701, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 37.39314977634701, "required_final_county_share_points": 37.39314977634701, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.213613509684069, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.999999999999993, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -31.467234461389907, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "WELL BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.0010297269995037297, "criticality_score": 3.2723784505664076e-05, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 2155.0392915600337, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 4016.544671010921, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 4989.586517961851, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } } } }, { "cid": "fips:26059", "county": "Hillsdale", "fips": "26059", "reporting": 54.47, "current_votes": 1571, "current_candidate_votes": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 692, "Haley Stevens": 782, "Mallory McMorrow": 97 }, "current_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 44.04837683004455, "Haley Stevens": 49.77721196690006, "Mallory McMorrow": 6.174411203055379 }, "estimated_remaining_votes": 1264.1567787725116, "estimated_final_votes": 2835.1567787725116, "turnout_disagreement_votes": 0.0, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 45.82297625840502, "Haley Stevens": 48.800132940938745, "Mallory McMorrow": 5.376890800656231 }, "remaining_sources": [ { "model": "v3", "remaining_votes": 1264.1567787725116, "weight": 0.1342208488636769 }, { "model": "histgeo", "remaining_votes": 1264.1567787725116, "weight": 0.05994207394479305 }, { "model": "latent", "remaining_votes": 1264.1567787725116, "weight": 0.07672787409296966 }, { "model": "batchbias", "remaining_votes": 1264.1567787725116, "weight": 0.045123489075924846 } ], "share_sources": [ { "model": "v0", "weight": 0.03630604611298715, "source": "statewide raw" }, { "model": "v1", "weight": 0.14599140026529184, "source": "county live" }, { "model": "v3", "weight": 0.15004242351696637, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "market", "weight": 0.0786646379365536, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "histgeo", "weight": 0.06573339512824654, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "latent", "weight": 0.08483492578364633, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "batchbias", "weight": 0.04883898267529022, "source": "county remaining" } ], "candidate_benchmarks": { "Abdul El-Sayed": { "opponent": "Haley Stevens", "expected_remaining_share_points": 45.82297625840502, "expected_final_county_share_points": 44.83964591038761, "current_county_share_points": 44.04837683004455, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 44.61080501558737, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 44.61080501558737, "required_final_county_share_points": 44.29915569654326, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 44.61080501558737, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": -1780.5175115489337, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": false }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 44.61080501558737, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 44.61080501558737, "required_final_county_share_points": 44.29915569654326, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 44.61080501558737, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 45.25499439855413, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 45.25499439855413, "required_final_county_share_points": 44.58639073814236, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.024044322225107804, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999973, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 45.90001444094713, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 45.90001444094713, "required_final_county_share_points": 44.87399615916895, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.003259695682198218, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.9999999999999996, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": 1.2121712428176536, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "ABOVE", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.0010297269995037297, "criticality_score": 0.0008494897116270156, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -2104.489768967104, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -242.9843895162164, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 730.0574574347135, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Haley Stevens": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 48.800132940938745, "expected_final_county_share_points": 49.341546086510824, "current_county_share_points": 49.77721196690006, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 50.0123041837564, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 50.0123041837564, "required_final_county_share_points": 49.88203630035518, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 50.0123041837564, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1875.1406207482778, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 50.0123041837564, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 50.0123041837564, "required_final_county_share_points": 49.88203630035518, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 50.0123041837564, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 50.655658134447954, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 50.655658134447954, "required_final_county_share_points": 50.16889883438018, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.07865391656842785, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.999999999999999, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 51.2981718976128, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 51.2981718976128, "required_final_county_share_points": 50.45538674053086, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.10597932088248406, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -1.2121712428176536, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.0010297269995037297, "criticality_score": 0.0008494897116270156, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 2199.112878166448, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 4060.618257617335, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 5033.6601045682655, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Mallory McMorrow": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 5.376890800656231, "expected_final_county_share_points": 5.818808003101561, "current_county_share_points": 6.174411203055379, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 37.050208208433965, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 37.050208208433965, "required_final_county_share_points": 19.941497516092465, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 37.050208208433965, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 43978.29478485917, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 37.050208208433965, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 37.050208208433965, "required_final_county_share_points": 19.941497516092465, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 37.050208208433965, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 37.5939960552779, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 37.5939960552779, "required_final_county_share_points": 20.18396491611381, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.159018308558073, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999906, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 38.13239576317523, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 38.13239576317523, "required_final_county_share_points": 20.42402982029249, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.213613509684069, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.999999999999993, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -31.673317407777734, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "WELL BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.0010297269995037297, "criticality_score": 3.251086667829966e-05, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 2155.6896360261653, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 4017.1950154770525, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 4990.2368624279825, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } } } }, { "cid": "fips:26127", "county": "Oceana", "fips": "26127", "reporting": 51.29, "current_votes": 1350, "current_candidate_votes": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 530, "Haley Stevens": 772, "Mallory McMorrow": 48 }, "current_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 39.25925925925926, "Haley Stevens": 57.18518518518518, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.5555555555555554 }, "estimated_remaining_votes": 1240.3814241764385, "estimated_final_votes": 2590.3814241764385, "turnout_disagreement_votes": 0.0, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 42.78045962102668, "Haley Stevens": 53.571754131483985, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.647786247489357 }, "remaining_sources": [ { "model": "v3", "remaining_votes": 1240.3814241764385, "weight": 0.1342208488636769 }, { "model": "histgeo", "remaining_votes": 1240.3814241764385, "weight": 0.05994207394479305 }, { "model": "latent", "remaining_votes": 1240.3814241764385, "weight": 0.07672787409296966 }, { "model": "batchbias", "remaining_votes": 1240.3814241764385, "weight": 0.045123489075924846 } ], "share_sources": [ { "model": "v0", "weight": 0.03630604611298715, "source": "statewide raw" }, { "model": "v1", "weight": 0.14599140026529184, "source": "county live" }, { "model": "v3", "weight": 0.15004242351696637, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "market", "weight": 0.0786646379365536, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "histgeo", "weight": 0.06573339512824654, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "latent", "weight": 0.08483492578364633, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "batchbias", "weight": 0.04883898267529022, "source": "county remaining" } ], "candidate_benchmarks": { "Abdul El-Sayed": { "opponent": "Haley Stevens", "expected_remaining_share_points": 42.78045962102668, "expected_final_county_share_points": 40.94535516728882, "current_county_share_points": 39.25925925925926, "recent_batch_votes": 479, "recent_batch_share_points": 47.390396659707726, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 41.56292750719457, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 41.56292750719457, "required_final_county_share_points": 40.362350593815336, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 41.56292750719457, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": -1818.5669154747213, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": false }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 41.56292750719457, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 41.56292750719457, "required_final_county_share_points": 40.362350593815336, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 41.56292750719457, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 42.209340247099455, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 42.209340247099455, "required_final_county_share_points": 40.671879664494156, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.024044322225107804, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999973, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 42.8580085085387, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 42.8580085085387, "required_final_county_share_points": 40.98248877187604, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.003259695682198218, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.9999999999999996, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": 1.2175321138321067, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": 5.827469152513153, "status": "ABOVE", "recent_status": "WELL ABOVE", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.0010103606321658718, "criticality_score": 0.000829843106959885, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -2148.749000893601, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -251.56270135127636, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 740.1301947827196, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Haley Stevens": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 53.571754131483985, "expected_final_county_share_points": 55.4549254192983, "current_county_share_points": 57.18518518518518, "recent_batch_votes": 479, "recent_batch_share_points": 49.26931106471816, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 54.78928624531609, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 54.78928624531609, "required_final_county_share_points": 56.03792999277179, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 54.78928624531609, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1914.9191292272317, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 54.78928624531609, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 54.78928624531609, "required_final_county_share_points": 56.03792999277179, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 54.78928624531609, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 55.43344883002952, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 55.43344883002952, "required_final_county_share_points": 56.34638159637376, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.07865391656842785, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.999999999999999, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 56.07536662177534, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 56.07536662177534, "required_final_county_share_points": 56.65375830055277, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.10597932088248406, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -1.2175321138321067, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -5.519975180597932, "status": "BELOW", "recent_status": "WELL BELOW", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.0010103606321658718, "criticality_score": 0.000829843106959885, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 2245.1012146461117, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 4142.287514188436, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 5133.980410322433, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Mallory McMorrow": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 3.647786247489357, "expected_final_county_share_points": 3.599719413412897, "current_county_share_points": 3.5555555555555554, "recent_batch_votes": 479, "recent_batch_share_points": 3.3402922755741122, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 30.433648216457904, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 30.433648216457904, "required_final_county_share_points": 16.425894472719406, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 30.433648216457904, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 44819.42876675492, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 30.433648216457904, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 30.433648216457904, "required_final_county_share_points": 16.425894472719406, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 30.433648216457904, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 30.992480190119885, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 30.992480190119885, "required_final_county_share_points": 16.693486261672476, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.159018308558073, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999906, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 31.549788556167734, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 31.549788556167734, "required_final_county_share_points": 16.96034848448341, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.213613509684069, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.999999999999993, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -26.785861968968547, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -27.093355940883793, "status": "WELL BELOW", "recent_status": "WELL BELOW", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.0010103606321658718, "criticality_score": 3.771992229842653e-05, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 2195.177246762117, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 4092.3635463044416, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 5084.056442438438, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } } } }, { "cid": "26127", "county": "26127", "fips": null, "reporting": 0.0, "current_votes": 0, "current_candidate_votes": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 0, "Haley Stevens": 0, "Mallory McMorrow": 0 }, "current_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": null, "Haley Stevens": null, "Mallory McMorrow": null }, "estimated_remaining_votes": 1240.3814241764385, "estimated_final_votes": 1240.3814241764385, "turnout_disagreement_votes": 0.0, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 46.26976603544071, "Haley Stevens": 50.02884439597427, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.701389568585018 }, "remaining_sources": [ { "model": "market", "remaining_votes": 1240.3814241764385, "weight": 0.1780093144963334 } ], "share_sources": [ { "model": "v0", "weight": 0.03630604611298715, "source": "statewide raw" }, { "model": "v3", "weight": 0.06301781787712588, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "market", "weight": 0.18729675699179427, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "histgeo", "weight": 0.02760802595386354, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "latent", "weight": 0.03563066882913146, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "batchbias", "weight": 0.020512372723621893, "source": "statewide fallback" } ], "candidate_benchmarks": { "Abdul El-Sayed": { "opponent": "Haley Stevens", "expected_remaining_share_points": 46.26976603544071, "expected_final_county_share_points": 46.26976603544072, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 45.037029369992084, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 45.037029369992084, "required_final_county_share_points": 45.037029369992084, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 45.037029369992084, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": -1815.0776090603088, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": false }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 45.037029369992084, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 45.037029369992084, "required_final_county_share_points": 45.037029369992084, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 45.037029369992084, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 45.69208831568155, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 45.69208831568155, "required_final_county_share_points": 45.69208831568156, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.024044322225107804, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999973, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 46.348127412385274, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 46.348127412385274, "required_final_county_share_points": 46.34812741238527, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.003259695682198218, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.9999999999999996, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": 1.232736665448627, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "ABOVE", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.0010103606321658718, "criticality_score": 0.0008196078371678624, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -2145.259694479187, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -248.07339493686234, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 743.6195011971337, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Haley Stevens": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 50.02884439597427, "expected_final_county_share_points": 50.02884439597427, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 51.26158106142289, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 51.26158106142289, "required_final_county_share_points": 51.26158106142289, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 51.26158106142289, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1911.3762194917235, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 51.26158106142289, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 51.26158106142289, "required_final_county_share_points": 51.26158106142289, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 51.26158106142289, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 51.91565556904912, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 51.91565556904912, "required_final_county_share_points": 51.91565556904912, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.07865391656842785, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.999999999999999, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 52.568741372427276, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 52.568741372427276, "required_final_county_share_points": 52.568741372427276, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.10597932088248406, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -1.2327366654486198, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.0010103606321658718, "criticality_score": 0.000819607837167867, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 2241.558304910602, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 4138.744604452926, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 5130.437500586923, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Mallory McMorrow": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 3.701389568585018, "expected_final_county_share_points": 3.7013895685850184, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 32.0288806705017, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 32.0288806705017, "required_final_county_share_points": 32.0288806705017, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 32.0288806705017, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 44819.48237007602, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 32.0288806705017, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 32.0288806705017, "required_final_county_share_points": 32.0288806705017, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 32.0288806705017, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 32.64232199494372, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 32.64232199494372, "required_final_county_share_points": 32.64232199494372, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.159018308558073, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999906, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 33.255039969712776, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 33.255039969712776, "required_final_county_share_points": 33.255039969712776, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.213613509684069, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.999999999999993, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -28.32749110191668, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "WELL BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.0010103606321658718, "criticality_score": 3.566714145388997e-05, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 2195.2308500832128, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 4092.417149625537, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 5084.110045759534, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } } } }, { "cid": "26003", "county": "26003", "fips": null, "reporting": 0.0, "current_votes": 0, "current_candidate_votes": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 0, "Haley Stevens": 0, "Mallory McMorrow": 0 }, "current_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": null, "Haley Stevens": null, "Mallory McMorrow": null }, "estimated_remaining_votes": 1187.3829746305028, "estimated_final_votes": 1187.3829746305028, "turnout_disagreement_votes": 0.0, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 49.78107924606265, "Haley Stevens": 44.19033989539461, "Mallory McMorrow": 6.028580858542726 }, "remaining_sources": [ { "model": "market", "remaining_votes": 1187.3829746305028, "weight": 0.1780093144963334 } ], "share_sources": [ { "model": "v0", "weight": 0.03630604611298715, "source": "statewide raw" }, { "model": "v3", "weight": 0.06301781787712588, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "market", "weight": 0.18729675699179427, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "histgeo", "weight": 0.02760802595386354, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "latent", "weight": 0.03563066882913146, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "batchbias", "weight": 0.020512372723621893, "source": "statewide fallback" } ], "candidate_benchmarks": { "Abdul El-Sayed": { "opponent": "Haley Stevens", "expected_remaining_share_points": 49.78107924606265, "expected_final_county_share_points": 49.78107924606265, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.57752122295603, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.57752122295603, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.57752122295603, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 48.57752122295603, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": -1894.6469253131233, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": false }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.57752122295603, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.57752122295603, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.57752122295603, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 48.57752122295603, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 49.21783313064474, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 49.21783313064474, "required_final_county_share_points": 49.21783313064474, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.024044322225107804, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999973, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 49.85738028071766, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 49.85738028071766, "required_final_county_share_points": 49.85738028071766, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.003259695682198218, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.9999999999999996, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": 1.2035580231066234, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "ABOVE", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.0009671904056989639, "criticality_score": 0.0008036092877370818, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -2239.566579796853, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -257.69999215554924, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 778.2567910677624, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Haley Stevens": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 44.19033989539461, "expected_final_county_share_points": 44.19033989539461, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 45.39389791850123, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 45.39389791850123, "required_final_county_share_points": 45.39389791850123, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 45.39389791850123, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1988.6183444545807, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 45.39389791850123, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 45.39389791850123, "required_final_county_share_points": 45.39389791850123, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 45.39389791850123, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 46.034969594667984, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 46.034969594667984, "required_final_county_share_points": 46.034969594667984, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.07865391656842785, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.999999999999999, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 46.67679601191516, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 46.67679601191516, "required_final_county_share_points": 46.67679601191515, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.10597932088248406, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -1.2035580231066234, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.0009671904056989639, "criticality_score": 0.0008036092877370818, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 2333.5379989383105, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 4315.404586579614, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 5351.361369802927, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Mallory McMorrow": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 6.028580858542726, "expected_final_county_share_points": 6.028580858542726, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 40.73569294218947, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 40.73569294218947, "required_final_county_share_points": 40.73569294218947, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 40.73569294218947, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 46822.14724339839, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 40.73569294218947, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 40.73569294218947, "required_final_county_share_points": 40.73569294218947, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 40.73569294218947, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 41.31982430328867, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 41.31982430328867, "required_final_county_share_points": 41.31982430328867, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.159018308558073, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999906, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 41.89778507077519, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 41.89778507077519, "required_final_county_share_points": 41.89778507077519, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.213613509684069, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.999999999999993, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -34.70711208364675, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "WELL BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.0009671904056989639, "criticality_score": 2.7867210713699323e-05, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 2295.3762399014586, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 4277.242827542763, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 5313.199610766075, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } } } }, { "cid": "fips:26003", "county": "Alger", "fips": "26003", "reporting": 20.65, "current_votes": 291, "current_candidate_votes": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 152, "Haley Stevens": 107, "Mallory McMorrow": 32 }, "current_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 52.23367697594502, "Haley Stevens": 36.769759450171826, "Mallory McMorrow": 10.996563573883162 }, "estimated_remaining_votes": 1187.3829746305028, "estimated_final_votes": 1478.3829746305028, "turnout_disagreement_votes": 0.0, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 50.733700729169016, "Haley Stevens": 41.848202633581764, "Mallory McMorrow": 7.418096637249221 }, "remaining_sources": [ { "model": "v3", "remaining_votes": 1187.3829746305028, "weight": 0.1342208488636769 }, { "model": "histgeo", "remaining_votes": 1187.3829746305028, "weight": 0.05994207394479305 }, { "model": "latent", "remaining_votes": 1187.3829746305028, "weight": 0.07672787409296966 }, { "model": "batchbias", "remaining_votes": 1187.3829746305028, "weight": 0.045123489075924846 } ], "share_sources": [ { "model": "v0", "weight": 0.03630604611298715, "source": "statewide raw" }, { "model": "v1", "weight": 0.14599140026529184, "source": "county live" }, { "model": "v3", "weight": 0.15004242351696637, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "market", "weight": 0.0786646379365536, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "histgeo", "weight": 0.06573339512824654, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "latent", "weight": 0.08483492578364633, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "batchbias", "weight": 0.04883898267529022, "source": "county remaining" } ], "candidate_benchmarks": { "Abdul El-Sayed": { "opponent": "Haley Stevens", "expected_remaining_share_points": 50.733700729169016, "expected_final_county_share_points": 51.02895107721967, "current_county_share_points": 52.23367697594502, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 49.553581520396875, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 49.553581520396875, "required_final_county_share_points": 50.0811226183045, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 49.553581520396875, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": -1893.6943038300183, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": false }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 49.553581520396875, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 49.553581520396875, "required_final_county_share_points": 50.0811226183045, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 49.553581520396875, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 50.18169926774429, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 50.18169926774429, "required_final_county_share_points": 50.58560375212572, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.024044322225107804, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999973, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 50.808441227926124, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 50.808441227926124, "required_final_county_share_points": 51.08897990416268, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.003259695682198218, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.9999999999999996, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": 1.1801192087721404, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "ABOVE", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.0009671904056989639, "criticality_score": 0.000819570089622794, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -2238.613958313747, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -256.74737067244286, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 779.2094125508688, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Haley Stevens": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 41.848202633581764, "expected_final_county_share_points": 40.84857872574986, "current_county_share_points": 36.769759450171826, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 43.028321842353904, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 43.028321842353904, "required_final_county_share_points": 41.796407184665036, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 43.028321842353904, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1986.2762071927687, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 43.028321842353904, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 43.028321842353904, "required_final_county_share_points": 41.796407184665036, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 43.028321842353904, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 43.65781366202224, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 43.65781366202224, "required_final_county_share_points": 42.301991922970196, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.07865391656842785, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.999999999999999, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 44.28867779320415, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 44.28867779320415, "required_final_county_share_points": 42.808678851543405, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.10597932088248406, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -1.1801192087721404, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.0009671904056989639, "criticality_score": 0.000819570089622794, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 2331.1958616764978, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 4313.062449317801, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 5349.0192325411135, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Mallory McMorrow": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 7.418096637249221, "expected_final_county_share_points": 8.122470197030468, "current_county_share_points": 10.996563573883162, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 44.51016120478676, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 44.51016120478676, "required_final_county_share_points": 37.91345583280397, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 44.51016120478676, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 46823.5367591771, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 44.51016120478676, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 44.51016120478676, "required_final_county_share_points": 37.91345583280397, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 44.51016120478676, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 45.06346257864349, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 45.06346257864349, "required_final_county_share_points": 38.35784719987943, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.159018308558073, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999906, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 45.608873470073505, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 45.608873470073505, "required_final_county_share_points": 38.79590122091137, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.213613509684069, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.999999999999993, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -37.09206456753754, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "WELL BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.0009671904056989639, "criticality_score": 2.6075399603003912e-05, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 2296.765755680165, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 4278.632343321469, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 5314.589126544782, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } } } }, { "cid": "26067", "county": "26067", "fips": null, "reporting": 0.0, "current_votes": 0, "current_candidate_votes": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 0, "Haley Stevens": 0, "Mallory McMorrow": 0 }, "current_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": null, "Haley Stevens": null, "Mallory McMorrow": null }, "estimated_remaining_votes": 1155.4377744995945, "estimated_final_votes": 1155.4377744995945, "turnout_disagreement_votes": 0.0, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 49.310104438730704, "Haley Stevens": 46.81016573932359, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.8797298219457037 }, "remaining_sources": [ { "model": "market", "remaining_votes": 1155.4377744995945, "weight": 0.1780093144963334 } ], "share_sources": [ { "model": "v0", "weight": 0.03630604611298715, "source": "statewide raw" }, { "model": "v3", "weight": 0.06301781787712588, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "market", "weight": 0.18729675699179427, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "histgeo", "weight": 0.02760802595386354, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "latent", "weight": 0.03563066882913146, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "batchbias", "weight": 0.020512372723621893, "source": "statewide fallback" } ], "candidate_benchmarks": { "Abdul El-Sayed": { "opponent": "Haley Stevens", "expected_remaining_share_points": 49.310104438730704, "expected_final_county_share_points": 49.310104438730704, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.076549179833556, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.076549179833556, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.076549179833556, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 48.076549179833556, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": -1948.8768676015827, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": false }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.076549179833556, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.076549179833556, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.076549179833556, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 48.076549179833556, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.73255582712759, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.73255582712759, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.73255582712759, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.024044322225107804, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999973, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 49.38837877284581, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 49.38837877284581, "required_final_county_share_points": 49.38837877284581, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.003259695682198218, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.9999999999999996, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": 1.2335552588971481, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "ABOVE", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.0009411692383629892, "criticality_score": 0.0007629729041927439, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -2303.3327581637413, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -266.6721122250261, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 797.9264961985851, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Haley Stevens": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 46.81016573932359, "expected_final_county_share_points": 46.81016573932358, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.043720998220735, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.043720998220735, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.043720998220735, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 48.043720998220735, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 2044.997137779637, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.043720998220735, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.043720998220735, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.043720998220735, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 48.043720998220735, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.69990491562012, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.69990491562012, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.69990491562012, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.07865391656842785, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.999999999999999, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 49.35625965308465, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 49.35625965308465, "required_final_county_share_points": 49.35625965308465, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.10597932088248406, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -1.2335552588971481, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.0009411692383629892, "criticality_score": 0.0007629729041927439, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 2399.4530283417957, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 4436.11367428051, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 5500.712282704122, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Mallory McMorrow": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 3.8797298219457037, "expected_final_county_share_points": 3.8797298219457037, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 33.888423759904335, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 33.888423759904335, "required_final_county_share_points": 33.888423759904335, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 33.888423759904335, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 48114.356524866926, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 33.888423759904335, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 33.888423759904335, "required_final_county_share_points": 33.888423759904335, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 33.888423759904335, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 34.54452907635709, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 34.54452907635709, "required_final_county_share_points": 34.54452907635709, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.159018308558073, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999906, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 35.200128120057784, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 35.200128120057784, "required_final_county_share_points": 35.200128120057784, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.213613509684069, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.999999999999993, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -30.008693937958633, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "WELL BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.0009411692383629892, "criticality_score": 3.136321894944199e-05, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 2356.522592424418, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 4393.183238363133, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 5457.781846786745, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } } } }, { "cid": "fips:26153", "county": "Schoolcraft", "fips": "26153", "reporting": 0.0, "current_votes": 0, "current_candidate_votes": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 0, "Haley Stevens": 0, "Mallory McMorrow": 0 }, "current_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": null, "Haley Stevens": null, "Mallory McMorrow": null }, "estimated_remaining_votes": 987.1481570043143, "estimated_final_votes": 987.1481570043143, "turnout_disagreement_votes": 1.1368683772161603e-13, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 49.054050055778966, "Haley Stevens": 47.06205793393476, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.8838920102862757 }, "remaining_sources": [ { "model": "v3", "remaining_votes": 987.1481570043142, "weight": 0.1342208488636769 }, { "model": "histgeo", "remaining_votes": 987.1481570043142, "weight": 0.05994207394479305 }, { "model": "latent", "remaining_votes": 987.1481570043142, "weight": 0.07672787409296966 }, { "model": "batchbias", "remaining_votes": 987.1481570043142, "weight": 0.045123489075924846 } ], "share_sources": [ { "model": "v0", "weight": 0.03630604611298715, "source": "statewide raw" }, { "model": "v3", "weight": 0.15004242351696637, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "market", "weight": 0.0786646379365536, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "histgeo", "weight": 0.06573339512824654, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "latent", "weight": 0.08483492578364633, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "batchbias", "weight": 0.04883898267529022, "source": "county remaining" } ], "candidate_benchmarks": { "Abdul El-Sayed": { "opponent": "Haley Stevens", "expected_remaining_share_points": 49.054050055778966, "expected_final_county_share_points": 49.05405005577896, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 47.820410841463485, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 47.820410841463485, "required_final_county_share_points": 47.820410841463485, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 47.820410841463485, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": -2289.7850508698307, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": false }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 47.820410841463485, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 47.820410841463485, "required_final_county_share_points": 47.820410841463485, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 47.820410841463485, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.47642045549751, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.47642045549751, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.47642045549751, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.024044322225107804, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999973, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 49.132341014357, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 49.132341014357, "required_final_county_share_points": 49.132341014357, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.003259695682198218, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.9999999999999996, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": 1.233639214315481, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "ABOVE", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.0008040878527461584, "criticality_score": 0.0006518014695182406, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -2704.6687969857876, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -320.7970068629488, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 925.2950190647931, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Haley Stevens": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 47.06205793393476, "expected_final_county_share_points": 47.06205793393476, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.29569714825025, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.29569714825025, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.29569714825025, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 48.29569714825025, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 2385.9011588595445, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.29569714825025, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.29569714825025, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.29569714825025, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 48.29569714825025, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.95178932831056, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.95178932831056, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.95178932831056, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.07865391656842785, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.999999999999999, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 49.60795757040527, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 49.60795757040527, "required_final_county_share_points": 49.60795757040527, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.10597932088248406, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -1.2336392143154882, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.0008040878527461584, "criticality_score": 0.0006518014695182369, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 2800.7849049755014, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 5184.65669509834, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 6430.748721026082, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Mallory McMorrow": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 3.8838920102862757, "expected_final_county_share_points": 3.883892010286276, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 33.8047145477324, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 33.8047145477324, "required_final_county_share_points": 33.8047145477324, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 33.8047145477324, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 56316.26399802734, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 33.8047145477324, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 33.8047145477324, "required_final_county_share_points": 33.8047145477324, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 33.8047145477324, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 34.45653296572884, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 34.45653296572884, "required_final_county_share_points": 34.45653296572884, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.159018308558073, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999906, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 35.10774767658412, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 35.10774767658412, "required_final_county_share_points": 35.10774767658412, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.213613509684069, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.999999999999993, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -29.920822537446128, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "WELL BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.0008040878527461584, "criticality_score": 2.6873855213700647e-05, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 2757.606739051853, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 5141.478529174691, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 6387.570555102434, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } } } }, { "cid": "26153", "county": "26153", "fips": null, "reporting": 0.0, "current_votes": 0, "current_candidate_votes": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 0, "Haley Stevens": 0, "Mallory McMorrow": 0 }, "current_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": null, "Haley Stevens": null, "Mallory McMorrow": null }, "estimated_remaining_votes": 987.1481570043142, "estimated_final_votes": 987.1481570043142, "turnout_disagreement_votes": 0.0, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 48.973903537573875, "Haley Stevens": 46.149745434179586, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.8763510282465425 }, "remaining_sources": [ { "model": "market", "remaining_votes": 987.1481570043142, "weight": 0.1780093144963334 } ], "share_sources": [ { "model": "v0", "weight": 0.03630604611298715, "source": "statewide raw" }, { "model": "v3", "weight": 0.06301781787712588, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "market", "weight": 0.18729675699179427, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "histgeo", "weight": 0.02760802595386354, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "latent", "weight": 0.03563066882913146, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "batchbias", "weight": 0.020512372723621893, "source": "statewide fallback" } ], "candidate_benchmarks": { "Abdul El-Sayed": { "opponent": "Haley Stevens", "expected_remaining_share_points": 48.973903537573875, "expected_final_county_share_points": 48.97390353757388, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 47.75327342108671, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 47.75327342108671, "required_final_county_share_points": 47.75327342108671, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 47.75327342108671, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": -2289.8651973880324, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": false }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 47.75327342108671, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 47.75327342108671, "required_final_county_share_points": 47.75327342108671, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 47.75327342108671, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.402435191598066, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.402435191598066, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.402435191598066, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.024044322225107804, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999973, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 49.05134992915548, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 49.05134992915548, "required_final_county_share_points": 49.05134992915548, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.003259695682198218, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.9999999999999996, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": 1.2206301164871647, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "ABOVE", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.0008040878527461583, "criticality_score": 0.0006587481677580037, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -2704.7489435039934, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -320.877153381154, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 925.2148725465881, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Haley Stevens": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 46.149745434179586, "expected_final_county_share_points": 46.14974543417958, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 47.37037555066674, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 47.37037555066674, "required_final_county_share_points": 47.37037555066674, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 47.37037555066674, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 2384.988846359786, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 47.37037555066674, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 47.37037555066674, "required_final_county_share_points": 47.37037555066674, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 47.37037555066674, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.01977805349677, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.01977805349677, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.01977805349677, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.07865391656842785, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.999999999999999, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.6694149671013, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.6694149671013, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.6694149671013, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.10597932088248406, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -1.2206301164871576, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.0008040878527461583, "criticality_score": 0.0006587481677580075, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 2799.872592475747, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 5183.744382598586, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 6429.836408526328, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Mallory McMorrow": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 4.8763510282465425, "expected_final_county_share_points": 4.876351028246543, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 37.136501345834354, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 37.136501345834354, "required_final_county_share_points": 37.136501345834354, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 37.136501345834354, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 56317.25645704531, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 37.136501345834354, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 37.136501345834354, "required_final_county_share_points": 37.136501345834354, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 37.136501345834354, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 37.749746513256014, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 37.749746513256014, "required_final_county_share_points": 37.749746513256014, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.159018308558073, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999906, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 38.359105897231565, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 38.359105897231565, "required_final_county_share_points": 38.359105897231565, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.213613509684069, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.999999999999993, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -32.260150317587815, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "WELL BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.0008040878527461583, "criticality_score": 2.4925111781260984e-05, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 2758.5991980698136, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 5142.470988192653, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 6388.563014120396, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } } } }, { "cid": "26119", "county": "26119", "fips": null, "reporting": 0.0, "current_votes": 0, "current_candidate_votes": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 0, "Haley Stevens": 0, "Mallory McMorrow": 0 }, "current_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": null, "Haley Stevens": null, "Mallory McMorrow": null }, "estimated_remaining_votes": 970.8193904974759, "estimated_final_votes": 970.8193904974759, "turnout_disagreement_votes": 0.0, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 48.27100217759222, "Haley Stevens": 47.573041127080906, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.155956695326873 }, "remaining_sources": [ { "model": "market", "remaining_votes": 970.8193904974759, "weight": 0.1780093144963334 } ], "share_sources": [ { "model": "v0", "weight": 0.03630604611298715, "source": "statewide raw" }, { "model": "v3", "weight": 0.06301781787712588, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "market", "weight": 0.18729675699179427, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "histgeo", "weight": 0.02760802595386354, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "latent", "weight": 0.03563066882913146, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "batchbias", "weight": 0.020512372723621893, "source": "statewide fallback" } ], "candidate_benchmarks": { "Abdul El-Sayed": { "opponent": "Haley Stevens", "expected_remaining_share_points": 48.27100217759222, "expected_final_county_share_points": 48.27100217759222, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 47.04081622790371, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 47.04081622790371, "required_final_county_share_points": 47.04081622790371, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 47.04081622790371, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": -2329.9063710877417, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": false }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 47.04081622790371, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 47.04081622790371, "required_final_county_share_points": 47.04081622790371, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 47.04081622790371, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 47.694883782522766, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 47.694883782522766, "required_final_county_share_points": 47.694883782522766, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.024044322225107804, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999973, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.34910264295541, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.34910264295541, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.34910264295541, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.003259695682198218, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.9999999999999996, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": 1.2301859496885115, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "ABOVE", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.0007907871514225376, "criticality_score": 0.0006428192027577363, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -2751.768284187304, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -327.8007911724904, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 939.2499691362993, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Haley Stevens": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 47.573041127080906, "expected_final_county_share_points": 47.573041127080906, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.8032270767694, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.8032270767694, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.8032270767694, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 48.8032270767694, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 2425.750414392415, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.8032270767694, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.8032270767694, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.8032270767694, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 48.8032270767694, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 49.45713689360831, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 49.45713689360831, "required_final_county_share_points": 49.45713689360831, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.07865391656842785, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.999999999999999, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 50.11088253540306, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 50.11088253540306, "required_final_county_share_points": 50.11088253540306, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.10597932088248406, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -1.2301859496884973, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.0007907871514225376, "criticality_score": 0.0006428192027577437, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 2847.6123274919773, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 5271.5798205067895, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 6538.63058081558, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Mallory McMorrow": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 4.155956695326873, "expected_final_county_share_points": 4.155956695326873, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 34.480137780876035, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 34.480137780876035, "required_final_county_share_points": 34.480137780876035, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 34.480137780876035, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 57263.68618681971, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 34.480137780876035, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 34.480137780876035, "required_final_county_share_points": 34.480137780876035, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 34.480137780876035, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 35.10919125118339, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 35.10919125118339, "required_final_county_share_points": 35.10919125118339, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.159018308558073, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999906, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 35.73638403953086, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 35.73638403953086, "required_final_county_share_points": 35.73638403953086, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.213613509684069, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.999999999999993, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -30.324181085549164, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "WELL BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.0007907871514225376, "criticality_score": 2.6077774340932928e-05, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 2804.195243060223, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 5228.162736075035, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 6495.213496383826, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } } } }, { "cid": "fips:26119", "county": "Montmorency", "fips": "26119", "reporting": 0.0, "current_votes": 0, "current_candidate_votes": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 0, "Haley Stevens": 0, "Mallory McMorrow": 0 }, "current_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": null, "Haley Stevens": null, "Mallory McMorrow": null }, "estimated_remaining_votes": 970.8193904974759, "estimated_final_votes": 970.8193904974759, "turnout_disagreement_votes": 0.0, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 49.03949384088323, "Haley Stevens": 47.07407323538083, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.8864329237359323 }, "remaining_sources": [ { "model": "v3", "remaining_votes": 970.8193904974759, "weight": 0.1342208488636769 }, { "model": "histgeo", "remaining_votes": 970.8193904974759, "weight": 0.05994207394479305 }, { "model": "latent", "remaining_votes": 970.8193904974759, "weight": 0.07672787409296966 }, { "model": "batchbias", "remaining_votes": 970.8193904974759, "weight": 0.045123489075924846 } ], "share_sources": [ { "model": "v0", "weight": 0.03630604611298715, "source": "statewide raw" }, { "model": "v3", "weight": 0.15004242351696637, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "market", "weight": 0.0786646379365536, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "histgeo", "weight": 0.06573339512824654, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "latent", "weight": 0.08483492578364633, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "batchbias", "weight": 0.04883898267529022, "source": "county remaining" } ], "candidate_benchmarks": { "Abdul El-Sayed": { "opponent": "Haley Stevens", "expected_remaining_share_points": 49.03949384088323, "expected_final_county_share_points": 49.03949384088323, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 47.80588195962072, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 47.80588195962072, "required_final_county_share_points": 47.80588195962072, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 47.80588195962072, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": -2329.1378794244542, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": false }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 47.80588195962072, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 47.80588195962072, "required_final_county_share_points": 47.80588195962072, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 47.80588195962072, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.461874862415456, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.461874862415456, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.461874862415456, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.024044322225107804, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999973, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 49.117783654746304, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 49.117783654746304, "required_final_county_share_points": 49.117783654746304, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.003259695682198218, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.9999999999999996, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": 1.2336118812625116, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "ABOVE", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.0007907871514225376, "criticality_score": 0.0006410339941061728, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -2750.999792524013, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -327.0322995091994, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 940.0184607995903, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Haley Stevens": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 47.07407323538083, "expected_final_county_share_points": 47.07407323538084, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.30768511664335, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.30768511664335, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.30768511664335, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 48.30768511664335, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 2425.251446500719, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.30768511664335, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.30768511664335, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.30768511664335, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 48.30768511664335, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.963755639034986, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.963755639034986, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.963755639034986, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.07865391656842785, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.999999999999999, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 49.619897275509025, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 49.619897275509025, "required_final_county_share_points": 49.619897275509025, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.10597932088248406, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -1.2336118812625188, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.0007907871514225376, "criticality_score": 0.0006410339941061691, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 2847.113359600277, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 5271.0808526150895, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 6538.13161292388, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Mallory McMorrow": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 3.8864329237359323, "expected_final_county_share_points": 3.886432923735932, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 33.80865440728037, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 33.80865440728037, "required_final_county_share_points": 33.80865440728037, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 33.80865440728037, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 57263.41666304812, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 33.80865440728037, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 33.80865440728037, "required_final_county_share_points": 33.80865440728037, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 33.80865440728037, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 34.460145424130964, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 34.460145424130964, "required_final_county_share_points": 34.460145424130964, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.159018308558073, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999906, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 35.11101780671713, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 35.11101780671713, "required_final_county_share_points": 35.11101780671712, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.213613509684069, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.999999999999993, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -29.92222148354444, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "WELL BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.0007907871514225376, "criticality_score": 2.6428089634234766e-05, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 2803.925719288632, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 5227.893212303445, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 6494.9439726122355, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } } } }, { "cid": "fips:26149", "county": "St. Joseph", "fips": "26149", "reporting": 73.25, "current_votes": 4494, "current_candidate_votes": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 2060, "Haley Stevens": 2177, "Mallory McMorrow": 257 }, "current_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 45.83889630618603, "Haley Stevens": 48.442367601246104, "Mallory McMorrow": 5.718736092567869 }, "estimated_remaining_votes": 902.6344709897611, "estimated_final_votes": 5396.634470989761, "turnout_disagreement_votes": 470.89502924808846, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 46.86851449995504, "Haley Stevens": 47.973021443942194, "Mallory McMorrow": 5.158464056102759 }, "remaining_sources": [ { "model": "v3", "remaining_votes": 431.73944174167264, "weight": 0.1342208488636769 }, { "model": "histgeo", "remaining_votes": 431.73944174167264, "weight": 0.05994207394479305 }, { "model": "latent", "remaining_votes": 431.73944174167264, "weight": 0.07672787409296966 }, { "model": "batchbias", "remaining_votes": 431.73944174167264, "weight": 0.045123489075924846 } ], "share_sources": [ { "model": "v0", "weight": 0.03630604611298715, "source": "statewide raw" }, { "model": "v1", "weight": 0.14599140026529184, "source": "county live" }, { "model": "v3", "weight": 0.15004242351696637, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "market", "weight": 0.0786646379365536, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "histgeo", "weight": 0.06573339512824654, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "latent", "weight": 0.08483492578364633, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "batchbias", "weight": 0.04883898267529022, "source": "county remaining" } ], "candidate_benchmarks": { "Abdul El-Sayed": { "opponent": "Haley Stevens", "expected_remaining_share_points": 46.86851449995504, "expected_final_county_share_points": 46.011108984041094, "current_county_share_points": 45.83889630618603, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 45.65188775333666, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 45.65188775333666, "required_final_county_share_points": 45.807617484713276, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 45.65188775333666, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": -2510.9561445524573, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": false }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 45.65188775333666, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 45.65188775333666, "required_final_county_share_points": 45.807617484713276, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 45.65188775333666, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 46.298598956611485, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 46.298598956611485, "required_final_county_share_points": 45.91578560838167, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.024044322225107804, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999973, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 46.9457940523936, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 46.9457940523936, "required_final_county_share_points": 46.024034667318084, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.003259695682198218, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.9999999999999996, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": 1.216626746618381, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "ABOVE", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.000735246688597778, "criticality_score": 0.0006043321755348542, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -2964.6854652378643, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -357.6117052761423, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1005.1519453337578, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Haley Stevens": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 47.973021443942194, "expected_final_county_share_points": 48.363865337902816, "current_county_share_points": 48.442367601246104, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 49.18964819056056, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 49.18964819056056, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.567356837230626, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 49.18964819056056, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 2605.797680496355, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 49.18964819056056, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 49.18964819056056, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.567356837230626, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 49.18964819056056, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 49.83586963726213, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 49.83586963726213, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.67544304481451, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.07865391656842785, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.999999999999999, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 50.481595470526784, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 50.481595470526784, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.783446356702036, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.10597932088248406, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -1.216626746618367, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.000735246688597778, "criticality_score": 0.0006043321755348612, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 3059.5270011817615, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 5666.6007611434825, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 7029.364411753383, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Mallory McMorrow": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 5.158464056102759, "expected_final_county_share_points": 5.625025678056083, "current_county_share_points": 5.718736092567869, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 36.97306363539346, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 36.97306363539346, "required_final_county_share_points": 10.946296632273098, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 36.97306363539346, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 61590.067998063605, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 36.97306363539346, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 36.97306363539346, "required_final_county_share_points": 10.946296632273098, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 36.97306363539346, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 37.54161229809277, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 37.54161229809277, "required_final_county_share_points": 11.041391385150336, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.159018308558073, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999906, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 38.10530119734073, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 38.10530119734073, "required_final_county_share_points": 11.13567329994568, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.213613509684069, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.999999999999993, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -31.8145995792907, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "WELL BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.000735246688597778, "criticality_score": 2.3110354941458302e-05, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 3016.712443793922, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 5623.786203755643, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 6986.549854365544, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } } } }, { "cid": "fips:26069", "county": "Iosco", "fips": "26069", "reporting": 68.61, "current_votes": 3460, "current_candidate_votes": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 1338, "Haley Stevens": 1934, "Mallory McMorrow": 188 }, "current_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 38.67052023121387, "Haley Stevens": 55.895953757225435, "Mallory McMorrow": 5.433526011560693 }, "estimated_remaining_votes": 870.6481562454451, "estimated_final_votes": 4330.648156245445, "turnout_disagreement_votes": 257.3568560303338, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 41.80859004391156, "Haley Stevens": 53.24047229596726, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.950937660121192 }, "remaining_sources": [ { "model": "v3", "remaining_votes": 613.2913002151113, "weight": 0.1342208488636769 }, { "model": "histgeo", "remaining_votes": 613.2913002151113, "weight": 0.05994207394479305 }, { "model": "latent", "remaining_votes": 613.2913002151113, "weight": 0.07672787409296966 }, { "model": "batchbias", "remaining_votes": 613.2913002151113, "weight": 0.045123489075924846 } ], "share_sources": [ { "model": "v0", "weight": 0.03630604611298715, "source": "statewide raw" }, { "model": "v1", "weight": 0.14599140026529184, "source": "county live" }, { "model": "v3", "weight": 0.15004242351696637, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "market", "weight": 0.0786646379365536, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "histgeo", "weight": 0.06573339512824654, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "latent", "weight": 0.08483492578364633, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "batchbias", "weight": 0.04883898267529022, "source": "county remaining" } ], "candidate_benchmarks": { "Abdul El-Sayed": { "opponent": "Haley Stevens", "expected_remaining_share_points": 41.80859004391156, "expected_final_county_share_points": 39.30140840268875, "current_county_share_points": 38.67052023121387, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 40.61011657485963, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 40.61011657485963, "required_final_county_share_points": 39.06046324194317, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 40.61011657485963, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": -2609.9867321499078, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": false }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 40.61011657485963, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 40.61011657485963, "required_final_county_share_points": 39.06046324194317, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 40.61011657485963, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 41.246347482975054, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 41.246347482975054, "required_final_county_share_points": 39.1883732561285, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.024044322225107804, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999973, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 41.88494221639375, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 41.88494221639375, "required_final_county_share_points": 39.31675850174982, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.003259695682198218, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.9999999999999996, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": 1.198473469051926, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "ABOVE", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.000709192031090164, "criticality_score": 0.0005917461248860044, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -3080.3853913689763, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -377.5316297503344, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1035.2979249079892, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Haley Stevens": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 53.24047229596726, "expected_final_county_share_points": 55.36208678055726, "current_county_share_points": 55.895953757225435, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 54.43894576501918, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 54.43894576501918, "required_final_county_share_points": 55.60303194130285, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 54.43894576501918, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 2705.0357944897864, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 54.43894576501918, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 54.43894576501918, "required_final_county_share_points": 55.60303194130285, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 54.43894576501918, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 55.07281967362555, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 55.07281967362555, "required_final_county_share_points": 55.73046809633298, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.07865391656842785, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.999999999999999, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 55.70434339349869, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 55.70434339349869, "required_final_county_share_points": 55.8574317614693, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.10597932088248406, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -1.198473469051919, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.000709192031090164, "criticality_score": 0.0005917461248860079, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 3175.434453708855, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 5878.288215327496, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 7291.11776998582, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Mallory McMorrow": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 4.950937660121192, "expected_final_county_share_points": 5.336504816754003, "current_county_share_points": 5.433526011560693, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 33.92239974415517, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 33.92239974415517, "required_final_county_share_points": 11.161025566799761, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 33.92239974415517, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 63852.39819798616, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 33.92239974415517, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 33.92239974415517, "required_final_county_share_points": 11.161025566799761, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 33.92239974415517, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 34.41694257620935, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 34.41694257620935, "required_final_county_share_points": 11.260450130832151, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.159018308558073, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999906, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 34.90649072564821, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 34.90649072564821, "required_final_county_share_points": 11.358870546974163, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.213613509684069, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.999999999999993, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -28.97146208403398, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "WELL BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.000709192031090164, "criticality_score": 2.447898656385022e-05, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 3127.144919073009, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 5829.9986806916495, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 7242.8282353499735, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } } } }, { "cid": "26137", "county": "26137", "fips": null, "reporting": 0.0, "current_votes": 0, "current_candidate_votes": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 0, "Haley Stevens": 0, "Mallory McMorrow": 0 }, "current_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": null, "Haley Stevens": null, "Mallory McMorrow": null }, "estimated_remaining_votes": 852.2585725086306, "estimated_final_votes": 852.2585725086306, "turnout_disagreement_votes": 0.0, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 47.73334889983432, "Haley Stevens": 47.983933728439226, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.282717371726454 }, "remaining_sources": [ { "model": "market", "remaining_votes": 852.2585725086306, "weight": 0.1780093144963334 } ], "share_sources": [ { "model": "v0", "weight": 0.03630604611298715, "source": "statewide raw" }, { "model": "v3", "weight": 0.06301781787712588, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "market", "weight": 0.18729675699179427, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "histgeo", "weight": 0.02760802595386354, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "latent", "weight": 0.03563066882913146, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "batchbias", "weight": 0.020512372723621893, "source": "statewide fallback" } ], "candidate_benchmarks": { "Abdul El-Sayed": { "opponent": "Haley Stevens", "expected_remaining_share_points": 47.73334889983432, "expected_final_county_share_points": 47.73334889983432, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 46.50504540834954, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 46.50504540834954, "required_final_county_share_points": 46.50504540834954, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 46.50504540834954, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": -2661.2810071686804, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": false }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 46.50504540834954, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 46.50504540834954, "required_final_county_share_points": 46.50504540834954, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 46.50504540834954, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 47.15803437089912, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 47.15803437089912, "required_final_county_share_points": 47.158034370899124, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.024044322225107804, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999973, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 47.81135093220695, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 47.81135093220695, "required_final_county_share_points": 47.81135093220695, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.003259695682198218, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.9999999999999996, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": 1.2283034914847804, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "ABOVE", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.0006942126778948905, "criticality_score": 0.0005651800900245934, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -3141.8296793209565, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -380.65517188529714, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1062.6596700312812, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Haley Stevens": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 47.983933728439226, "expected_final_county_share_points": 47.98393372843923, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 49.212237219924006, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 49.212237219924006, "required_final_county_share_points": 49.212237219924006, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 49.212237219924006, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 2756.9982897969544, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 49.212237219924006, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 49.212237219924006, "required_final_county_share_points": 49.212237219924006, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 49.212237219924006, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 49.86489235892511, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 49.86489235892511, "required_final_county_share_points": 49.86489235892511, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.07865391656842785, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.999999999999999, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 50.51720745106789, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 50.51720745106789, "required_final_county_share_points": 50.51720745106789, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.10597932088248406, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -1.2283034914847804, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.0006942126778948905, "criticality_score": 0.0005651800900245934, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 3237.54696194923, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 5998.721469384888, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 7442.036311301467, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Mallory McMorrow": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 4.282717371726454, "expected_final_county_share_points": 4.282717371726454, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 34.689732409927664, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 34.689732409927664, "required_final_county_share_points": 34.689732409927664, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 34.689732409927664, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 65229.39635225773, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 34.689732409927664, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 34.689732409927664, "required_final_county_share_points": 34.689732409927664, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 34.689732409927664, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 35.3052526910459, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 35.3052526910459, "required_final_county_share_points": 35.305252691045894, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.159018308558073, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999906, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 35.91835038075575, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 35.91835038075575, "required_final_county_share_points": 35.91835038075574, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.213613509684069, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.999999999999993, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -30.40701503820121, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "WELL BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.0006942126778948905, "criticality_score": 2.2830674994659328e-05, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 3193.8457455925172, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 5955.020253028176, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 7398.335094944755, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } } } }, { "cid": "fips:26137", "county": "Otsego", "fips": "26137", "reporting": 70.99, "current_votes": 1730, "current_candidate_votes": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 797, "Haley Stevens": 849, "Mallory McMorrow": 84 }, "current_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 46.06936416184971, "Haley Stevens": 49.07514450867052, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.855491329479769 }, "estimated_remaining_votes": 852.2585725086304, "estimated_final_votes": 2582.2585725086306, "turnout_disagreement_votes": 1.1368683772161603e-13, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 47.04144657261356, "Haley Stevens": 48.41599964874527, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.542553778641175 }, "remaining_sources": [ { "model": "v3", "remaining_votes": 852.2585725086306, "weight": 0.1342208488636769 }, { "model": "histgeo", "remaining_votes": 852.2585725086306, "weight": 0.05994207394479305 }, { "model": "latent", "remaining_votes": 852.2585725086306, "weight": 0.07672787409296966 }, { "model": "batchbias", "remaining_votes": 852.2585725086306, "weight": 0.045123489075924846 } ], "share_sources": [ { "model": "v0", "weight": 0.03630604611298715, "source": "statewide raw" }, { "model": "v1", "weight": 0.14599140026529184, "source": "county live" }, { "model": "v3", "weight": 0.15004242351696637, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "market", "weight": 0.0786646379365536, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "histgeo", "weight": 0.06573339512824654, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "latent", "weight": 0.08483492578364633, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "batchbias", "weight": 0.04883898267529022, "source": "county remaining" } ], "candidate_benchmarks": { "Abdul El-Sayed": { "opponent": "Haley Stevens", "expected_remaining_share_points": 47.04144657261356, "expected_final_county_share_points": 46.39019398756058, "current_county_share_points": 46.06936416184971, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 45.81709328779613, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 45.81709328779613, "required_final_county_share_points": 45.986103710206585, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 45.81709328779613, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": -2661.9729094959057, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": false }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 45.81709328779613, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 45.81709328779613, "required_final_county_share_points": 45.986103710206585, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 45.81709328779613, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 46.46789007478823, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 46.46789007478823, "required_final_county_share_points": 46.20089519026206, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.024044322225107804, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999973, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 47.119222755564124, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 47.119222755564124, "required_final_county_share_points": 46.41586353876754, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.003259695682198218, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.9999999999999996, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": 1.2243532848174254, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "ABOVE", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.0006942126778948904, "criticality_score": 0.0005670035654769455, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -3142.5215816481777, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -381.34707421251795, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1061.9677677040604, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Haley Stevens": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 48.41599964874527, "expected_final_county_share_points": 48.85759779844678, "current_county_share_points": 49.07514450867052, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 49.6403529335627, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 49.6403529335627, "required_final_county_share_points": 49.261688075800784, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 49.6403529335627, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 2757.4303557172643, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 49.6403529335627, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 49.6403529335627, "required_final_county_share_points": 49.261688075800784, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 49.6403529335627, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 50.29060804156812, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 50.29060804156812, "required_final_county_share_points": 49.476300778035615, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.07865391656842785, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.999999999999999, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 50.94031569429285, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 50.94031569429285, "required_final_county_share_points": 49.69073279601946, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.10597932088248406, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -1.2243532848174326, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.0006942126778948904, "criticality_score": 0.0005670035654769422, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 3237.9790278695364, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 5999.153535305195, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 7442.468377221774, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Mallory McMorrow": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 4.542553778641175, "expected_final_county_share_points": 4.752208213992636, "current_county_share_points": 4.855491329479769, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 35.23327963833058, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 35.23327963833058, "required_final_county_share_points": 14.88149367320285, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 35.23327963833058, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 65229.65618866465, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 35.23327963833058, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 35.23327963833058, "required_final_county_share_points": 14.88149367320285, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 35.23327963833058, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 35.827673560742, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 35.827673560742, "required_final_county_share_points": 15.077669734428985, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.159018308558073, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999906, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 36.41871480028105, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 36.41871480028105, "required_final_county_share_points": 15.27273926327711, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.213613509684069, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.999999999999993, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -30.690725859689405, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "WELL BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.0006942126778948904, "criticality_score": 2.2619623956392018e-05, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 3194.1055819994326, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 5955.280089435091, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 7398.59493135167, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } } } }, { "cid": "26131", "county": "26131", "fips": null, "reporting": 0.0, "current_votes": 0, "current_candidate_votes": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 0, "Haley Stevens": 0, "Mallory McMorrow": 0 }, "current_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": null, "Haley Stevens": null, "Mallory McMorrow": null }, "estimated_remaining_votes": 850.4069201533449, "estimated_final_votes": 850.4069201533449, "turnout_disagreement_votes": 0.0, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 48.931518107864335, "Haley Stevens": 45.89858485821901, "Mallory McMorrow": 5.169897033916645 }, "remaining_sources": [ { "model": "market", "remaining_votes": 850.4069201533449, "weight": 0.1780093144963334 } ], "share_sources": [ { "model": "v0", "weight": 0.03630604611298715, "source": "statewide raw" }, { "model": "v3", "weight": 0.06301781787712588, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "market", "weight": 0.18729675699179427, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "histgeo", "weight": 0.02760802595386354, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "latent", "weight": 0.03563066882913146, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "batchbias", "weight": 0.020512372723621893, "source": "statewide fallback" } ], "candidate_benchmarks": { "Abdul El-Sayed": { "opponent": "Haley Stevens", "expected_remaining_share_points": 48.931518107864335, "expected_final_county_share_points": 48.931518107864335, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 47.7147553718776, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 47.7147553718776, "required_final_county_share_points": 47.7147553718776, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 47.7147553718776, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": -2665.9813704091066, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": false }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 47.7147553718776, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 47.7147553718776, "required_final_county_share_points": 47.7147553718776, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 47.7147553718776, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.3618782205621, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.3618782205621, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.3618782205621, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.024044322225107804, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999973, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 49.008714285760206, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 49.008714285760206, "required_final_county_share_points": 49.008714285760206, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.003259695682198218, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.9999999999999996, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": 1.216762735986734, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "ABOVE", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.0006927044026113584, "criticality_score": 0.0005693011317030593, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -3147.576375863163, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -380.3897639174344, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1066.0677115585834, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Haley Stevens": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 45.89858485821901, "expected_final_county_share_points": 45.898584858219, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 47.115347594205744, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 47.115347594205744, "required_final_county_share_points": 47.11534759420575, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 47.115347594205744, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 2760.81147337519, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 47.115347594205744, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 47.115347594205744, "required_final_county_share_points": 47.11534759420575, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 47.115347594205744, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 47.762750995046424, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 47.762750995046424, "required_final_county_share_points": 47.762750995046424, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.07865391656842785, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.999999999999999, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.41042869431758, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.41042869431758, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.41042869431758, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.10597932088248406, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -1.216762735986734, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.0006927044026113584, "criticality_score": 0.0005693011317030593, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 3242.406478829246, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 6009.5930907749735, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 7456.050566250991, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Mallory McMorrow": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 5.169897033916645, "expected_final_county_share_points": 5.169897033916644, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 37.98881102713791, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 37.98881102713791, "required_final_county_share_points": 37.98881102713791, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 37.98881102713791, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 65372.30287868632, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 37.98881102713791, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 37.98881102713791, "required_final_county_share_points": 37.98881102713791, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 37.98881102713791, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 38.590358342325835, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 38.590358342325835, "required_final_county_share_points": 38.590358342325835, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.159018308558073, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999906, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 39.18729919802669, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 39.18729919802669, "required_final_county_share_points": 39.1872991980267, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.213613509684069, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.999999999999993, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -32.818913993221265, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "WELL BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.0006927044026113584, "criticality_score": 2.1106865472588037e-05, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 3201.6777910049436, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 5968.864402950671, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 7415.321878426689, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } } } }, { "cid": "fips:26131", "county": "Ontonagon", "fips": "26131", "reporting": 15.380000000000003, "current_votes": 134, "current_candidate_votes": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 65, "Haley Stevens": 59, "Mallory McMorrow": 10 }, "current_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 48.507462686567166, "Haley Stevens": 44.02985074626866, "Mallory McMorrow": 7.462686567164178 }, "estimated_remaining_votes": 850.4069201533448, "estimated_final_votes": 984.4069201533448, "turnout_disagreement_votes": 1.1368683772161603e-13, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 48.87402045235217, "Haley Stevens": 45.59675421851257, "Mallory McMorrow": 5.5292253291352775 }, "remaining_sources": [ { "model": "v3", "remaining_votes": 850.4069201533449, "weight": 0.1342208488636769 }, { "model": "histgeo", "remaining_votes": 850.4069201533449, "weight": 0.05994207394479305 }, { "model": "latent", "remaining_votes": 850.4069201533449, "weight": 0.07672787409296966 }, { "model": "batchbias", "remaining_votes": 850.4069201533449, "weight": 0.045123489075924846 } ], "share_sources": [ { "model": "v0", "weight": 0.03630604611298715, "source": "statewide raw" }, { "model": "v1", "weight": 0.14599140026529184, "source": "county live" }, { "model": "v3", "weight": 0.15004242351696637, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "market", "weight": 0.0786646379365536, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "histgeo", "weight": 0.06573339512824654, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "latent", "weight": 0.08483492578364633, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "batchbias", "weight": 0.04883898267529022, "source": "county remaining" } ], "candidate_benchmarks": { "Abdul El-Sayed": { "opponent": "Haley Stevens", "expected_remaining_share_points": 48.87402045235217, "expected_final_county_share_points": 48.82412366718172, "current_county_share_points": 48.507462686567166, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 47.662003016444935, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 47.662003016444935, "required_final_county_share_points": 47.777089159661735, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 47.662003016444935, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": -2666.038868064616, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": false }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 47.662003016444935, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 47.662003016444935, "required_final_county_share_points": 47.777089159661735, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 47.662003016444935, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.30662311888375, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.30662311888375, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.33396191701551, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.024044322225107804, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999973, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.95090988146713, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.95090988146713, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.89054670959169, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.003259695682198218, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.9999999999999996, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": 1.212017435907235, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "ABOVE", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.0006927044026113582, "criticality_score": 0.0005715300639159915, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -3147.6338735186755, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -380.4472615729466, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1066.0102139030714, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Haley Stevens": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 45.59675421851257, "expected_final_county_share_points": 45.38346329076495, "current_county_share_points": 44.02985074626866, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 46.80877165441981, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 46.80877165441981, "required_final_county_share_points": 46.43049779828494, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 46.80877165441981, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 2760.5096427354806, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 46.80877165441981, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 46.80877165441981, "required_final_county_share_points": 46.43049779828494, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 46.80877165441981, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 47.45371895750576, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 47.45371895750576, "required_final_county_share_points": 46.987653216892824, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.07865391656842785, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.999999999999999, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.09898729792121, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.09898729792121, "required_final_county_share_points": 47.545085972403804, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.10597932088248406, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -1.212017435907235, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.0006927044026113582, "criticality_score": 0.0005715300639159915, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 3242.10464818954, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 6009.291260135268, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 7455.748735611287, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Mallory McMorrow": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 5.5292253291352775, "expected_final_county_share_points": 5.79241304205334, "current_county_share_points": 7.462686567164178, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 38.9677051107853, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 38.9677051107853, "required_final_county_share_points": 34.679161015435376, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 38.9677051107853, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 65372.66220698154, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 38.9677051107853, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 38.9677051107853, "required_final_county_share_points": 34.679161015435376, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 38.9677051107853, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 39.55510443249594, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 39.55510443249594, "required_final_county_share_points": 35.18660203179708, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.159018308558073, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999906, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 40.13713644890032, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 40.13713644890032, "required_final_county_share_points": 35.68940635424536, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.213613509684069, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.999999999999993, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -33.438479781650024, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "WELL BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.0006927044026113582, "criticality_score": 2.0715786337616115e-05, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 3202.037119300163, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 5969.223731245891, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 7415.68120672191, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } } } }, { "cid": "26033", "county": "26033", "fips": null, "reporting": 0.0, "current_votes": 0, "current_candidate_votes": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 0, "Haley Stevens": 0, "Mallory McMorrow": 0 }, "current_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": null, "Haley Stevens": null, "Mallory McMorrow": null }, "estimated_remaining_votes": 767.4548380501775, "estimated_final_votes": 767.4548380501775, "turnout_disagreement_votes": 1.1368683772161603e-13, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 48.358024573335435, "Haley Stevens": 46.84461290915929, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.797362517505271 }, "remaining_sources": [ { "model": "market", "remaining_votes": 767.4548380501774, "weight": 0.1780093144963334 } ], "share_sources": [ { "model": "v0", "weight": 0.03630604611298715, "source": "statewide raw" }, { "model": "v3", "weight": 0.06301781787712588, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "market", "weight": 0.18729675699179427, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "histgeo", "weight": 0.02760802595386354, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "latent", "weight": 0.03563066882913146, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "batchbias", "weight": 0.020512372723621893, "source": "statewide fallback" } ], "candidate_benchmarks": { "Abdul El-Sayed": { "opponent": "Haley Stevens", "expected_remaining_share_points": 48.358024573335435, "expected_final_county_share_points": 48.35802457333544, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 47.136045017659214, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 47.136045017659214, "required_final_county_share_points": 47.136045017659214, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 47.136045017659214, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": -2960.0023290783697, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": false }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 47.136045017659214, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 47.136045017659214, "required_final_county_share_points": 47.136045017659214, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 47.136045017659214, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 47.785816677498715, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 47.785816677498715, "required_final_county_share_points": 47.785816677498715, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.024044322225107804, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999973, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.43558579599191, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.43558579599191, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.43558579599191, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.003259695682198218, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.9999999999999996, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": 1.2219795556762207, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "ABOVE", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.0006251352529291315, "criticality_score": 0.0005115758688640198, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -3493.6516137580165, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -427.3674137221609, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1175.4336709351724, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Haley Stevens": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 46.84461290915929, "expected_final_county_share_points": 46.84461290915929, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.0665924648355, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.0665924648355, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.0665924648355, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 48.0665924648355, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 3055.2049665608642, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.0665924648355, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.0665924648355, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.0665924648355, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 48.0665924648355, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.71636022190207, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.71636022190207, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.71636022190207, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.07865391656842785, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.999999999999999, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 49.36611762077301, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 49.36611762077301, "required_final_county_share_points": 49.36611762077302, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.10597932088248406, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -1.2219795556762136, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.0006251352529291315, "criticality_score": 0.0005115758688640227, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 3588.8542512405115, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 6655.138451276366, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 8257.9395359337, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Mallory McMorrow": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 4.797362517505271, "expected_final_county_share_points": 4.797362517505271, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 36.61545588918153, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 36.61545588918153, "required_final_county_share_points": 36.615455889181526, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 36.61545588918153, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 72437.2839169207, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 36.61545588918153, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 36.61545588918153, "required_final_county_share_points": 36.615455889181526, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 36.61545588918153, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 37.22165594786729, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 37.22165594786729, "required_final_county_share_points": 37.22165594786729, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.159018308558073, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999906, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 37.82406516876479, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 37.82406516876479, "required_final_county_share_points": 37.82406516876479, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.213613509684069, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.999999999999993, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -31.818093371676262, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "WELL BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.0006251352529291315, "criticality_score": 1.9647162563348708e-05, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 3546.8070008488576, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 6613.091200884713, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 8215.892285542046, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } } } }, { "cid": "fips:26033", "county": "Chippewa", "fips": "26033", "reporting": 77.91, "current_votes": 2769, "current_candidate_votes": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 1316, "Haley Stevens": 1287, "Mallory McMorrow": 166 }, "current_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 47.52618273745035, "Haley Stevens": 46.478873239436616, "Mallory McMorrow": 5.994944023113037 }, "estimated_remaining_votes": 767.4548380501773, "estimated_final_votes": 3536.4548380501774, "turnout_disagreement_votes": 1.1368683772161603e-13, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 48.06033288096654, "Haley Stevens": 46.57252147150088, "Mallory McMorrow": 5.3671456475325705 }, "remaining_sources": [ { "model": "v3", "remaining_votes": 767.4548380501774, "weight": 0.1342208488636769 }, { "model": "histgeo", "remaining_votes": 767.4548380501774, "weight": 0.05994207394479305 }, { "model": "latent", "remaining_votes": 767.4548380501774, "weight": 0.07672787409296966 }, { "model": "batchbias", "remaining_votes": 767.4548380501774, "weight": 0.045123489075924846 } ], "share_sources": [ { "model": "v0", "weight": 0.03630604611298715, "source": "statewide raw" }, { "model": "v1", "weight": 0.14599140026529184, "source": "county live" }, { "model": "v3", "weight": 0.15004242351696637, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "market", "weight": 0.0786646379365536, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "histgeo", "weight": 0.06573339512824654, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "latent", "weight": 0.08483492578364633, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "batchbias", "weight": 0.04883898267529022, "source": "county remaining" } ], "candidate_benchmarks": { "Abdul El-Sayed": { "opponent": "Haley Stevens", "expected_remaining_share_points": 48.06033288096654, "expected_final_county_share_points": 47.64209998527605, "current_county_share_points": 47.52618273745035, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 46.84566555000326, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 46.84566555000326, "required_final_county_share_points": 47.378502014296956, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 46.84566555000326, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": -2960.3000207707323, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": false }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 46.84566555000326, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 46.84566555000326, "required_final_county_share_points": 47.378502014296956, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 46.84566555000326, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 47.49154767234932, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 47.49154767234932, "required_final_county_share_points": 47.51866649604611, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.024044322225107804, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999973, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.13743035170098, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.13743035170098, "required_final_county_share_points": 47.65883109867243, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.003259695682198218, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.9999999999999996, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": 1.2146673309632803, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "ABOVE", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.0006251352529291313, "criticality_score": 0.0005146555250097768, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -3493.949305450387, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -427.66510541453, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1175.135979242804, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Haley Stevens": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 46.57252147150088, "expected_final_county_share_points": 46.49919607461021, "current_county_share_points": 46.478873239436616, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 47.787188802464165, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 47.787188802464165, "required_final_county_share_points": 46.762794045589324, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 47.787188802464165, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 3054.932875123199, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 47.787188802464165, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 47.787188802464165, "required_final_county_share_points": 46.762794045589324, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 47.787188802464165, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.43306396229175, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.43306396229175, "required_final_county_share_points": 46.90295701638507, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.07865391656842785, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.999999999999999, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 49.07892574297455, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 49.07892574297455, "required_final_county_share_points": 47.04311708373942, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.10597932088248406, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -1.2146673309632874, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.0006251352529291313, "criticality_score": 0.0005146555250097738, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 3588.582159802854, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 6654.866359838711, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 8257.667444496044, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Mallory McMorrow": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 5.3671456475325705, "expected_final_county_share_points": 5.858703940113726, "current_county_share_points": 5.994944023113037, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 38.12764729820396, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 38.12764729820396, "required_final_county_share_points": 12.968141679355638, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 38.12764729820396, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 72437.85370005073, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 38.12764729820396, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 38.12764729820396, "required_final_county_share_points": 12.968141679355638, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 38.12764729820396, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 38.70781627578959, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 38.70781627578959, "required_final_county_share_points": 13.09404558853159, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.159018308558073, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999906, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 39.28284468911493, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 39.28284468911493, "required_final_county_share_points": 13.218833931104108, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.213613509684069, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.999999999999993, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -32.76050165067139, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "WELL BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.0006251352529291313, "criticality_score": 1.9081980477436307e-05, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 3547.376783978886, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 6613.660984014742, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 8216.462068672077, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } } } }, { "cid": "26069", "county": "26069", "fips": null, "reporting": 0.0, "current_votes": 0, "current_candidate_votes": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 0, "Haley Stevens": 0, "Mallory McMorrow": 0 }, "current_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": null, "Haley Stevens": null, "Mallory McMorrow": null }, "estimated_remaining_votes": 613.2913002151113, "estimated_final_votes": 613.2913002151113, "turnout_disagreement_votes": 0.0, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 44.57372764172937, "Haley Stevens": 50.919833119769066, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.506439238501557 }, "remaining_sources": [ { "model": "market", "remaining_votes": 613.2913002151113, "weight": 0.1780093144963334 } ], "share_sources": [ { "model": "v0", "weight": 0.03630604611298715, "source": "statewide raw" }, { "model": "v3", "weight": 0.06301781787712588, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "market", "weight": 0.18729675699179427, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "histgeo", "weight": 0.02760802595386354, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "latent", "weight": 0.03563066882913146, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "batchbias", "weight": 0.020512372723621893, "source": "statewide fallback" } ], "candidate_benchmarks": { "Abdul El-Sayed": { "opponent": "Haley Stevens", "expected_remaining_share_points": 44.57372764172937, "expected_final_county_share_points": 44.57372764172938, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 43.35569435846791, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 43.35569435846791, "required_final_county_share_points": 43.35569435846791, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 43.35569435846791, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": -3720.0006388926363, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": false }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 43.35569435846791, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 43.35569435846791, "required_final_county_share_points": 43.35569435846791, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 43.35569435846791, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 44.00272694939124, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 44.00272694939124, "required_final_county_share_points": 44.00272694939124, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.024044322225107804, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999973, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 44.65121227002415, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 44.65121227002415, "required_final_county_share_points": 44.651212270024146, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.003259695682198218, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.9999999999999996, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": 1.2180332832614624, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "ABOVE", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.0004995603559595291, "criticality_score": 0.00041013686803523393, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -4387.79378255172, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -550.7352047943939, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1454.9633049038432, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Haley Stevens": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 50.919833119769066, "expected_final_county_share_points": 50.919833119769066, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 52.13786640303053, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 52.13786640303053, "required_final_county_share_points": 52.13786640303053, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 52.13786640303053, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 3815.4941996541347, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 52.13786640303053, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 52.13786640303053, "required_final_county_share_points": 52.13786640303053, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 52.13786640303053, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 52.78344474495713, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 52.78344474495713, "required_final_county_share_points": 52.78344474495713, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.07865391656842785, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.999999999999999, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 53.4275673428555, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 53.4275673428555, "required_final_county_share_points": 53.4275673428555, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.10597932088248406, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -1.2180332832614624, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.0004995603559595291, "criticality_score": 0.00041013686803523393, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 4483.287343313219, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 8320.345921070544, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 10326.044430768781, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Mallory McMorrow": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 4.506439238501557, "expected_final_county_share_points": 4.506439238501556, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 34.006699676915666, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 34.006699676915666, "required_final_county_share_points": 34.006699676915666, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 34.006699676915666, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 90644.40662807779, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 34.006699676915666, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 34.006699676915666, "required_final_county_share_points": 34.006699676915666, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 34.006699676915666, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 34.562275485625996, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 34.562275485625996, "required_final_county_share_points": 34.562275485625996, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.159018308558073, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999906, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 35.11414037128412, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 35.11414037128412, "required_final_county_share_points": 35.11414037128412, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.213613509684069, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.999999999999993, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -29.50026043841411, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "WELL BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.0004995603559595291, "criticality_score": 1.6934099853200643e-05, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 4436.873949431951, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 8273.932527189276, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 10279.631036887513, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } } } }, { "cid": "26085", "county": "26085", "fips": null, "reporting": 0.0, "current_votes": 0, "current_candidate_votes": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 0, "Haley Stevens": 0, "Mallory McMorrow": 0 }, "current_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": null, "Haley Stevens": null, "Mallory McMorrow": null }, "estimated_remaining_votes": 506.3753173110222, "estimated_final_votes": 506.3753173110222, "turnout_disagreement_votes": 0.0, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 43.199115891722116, "Haley Stevens": 52.26858402263711, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.5323000856407685 }, "remaining_sources": [ { "model": "market", "remaining_votes": 506.3753173110222, "weight": 0.1780093144963334 } ], "share_sources": [ { "model": "v0", "weight": 0.03630604611298715, "source": "statewide raw" }, { "model": "v3", "weight": 0.06301781787712588, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "market", "weight": 0.18729675699179427, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "histgeo", "weight": 0.02760802595386354, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "latent", "weight": 0.03563066882913146, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "batchbias", "weight": 0.020512372723621893, "source": "statewide fallback" } ], "candidate_benchmarks": { "Abdul El-Sayed": { "opponent": "Haley Stevens", "expected_remaining_share_points": 43.199115891722116, "expected_final_county_share_points": 43.199115891722116, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 41.98793525189698, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 41.98793525189698, "required_final_county_share_points": 41.98793525189698, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 41.98793525189698, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": -4516.226727114481, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": false }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 41.98793525189698, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 41.98793525189698, "required_final_county_share_points": 41.98793525189698, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 41.98793525189698, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 42.63110711518375, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 42.63110711518375, "required_final_county_share_points": 42.63110711518375, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.024044322225107804, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999973, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 43.2762245340953, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 43.2762245340953, "required_final_county_share_points": 43.2762245340953, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.003259695682198218, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.9999999999999996, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": 1.2111806398251375, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "ABOVE", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.00041247125742088065, "criticality_score": 0.00034055304705038106, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -5325.01758114788, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -677.8032251034496, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1751.3780655336166, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Haley Stevens": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 52.26858402263711, "expected_final_county_share_points": 52.268584022637114, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 53.479764662462244, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 53.479764662462244, "required_final_county_share_points": 53.479764662462244, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 53.479764662462244, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 4611.69442702884, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 53.479764662462244, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 53.479764662462244, "required_final_county_share_points": 53.479764662462244, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 53.479764662462244, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 54.12099340817025, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 54.12099340817025, "required_final_county_share_points": 54.12099340817025, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.07865391656842785, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.999999999999999, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 54.760281486804985, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 54.760281486804985, "required_final_county_share_points": 54.760281486804985, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.10597932088248406, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -1.2111806398251375, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.00041247125742088065, "criticality_score": 0.00034055304705038106, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 5420.485281062239, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 10067.699637106669, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 12496.880927743736, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Mallory McMorrow": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 4.5323000856407685, "expected_final_county_share_points": 4.532300085640768, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 33.44575257067542, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 33.44575257067542, "required_final_county_share_points": 33.44575257067542, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 33.44575257067542, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 109782.12282991371, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 33.44575257067542, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 33.44575257067542, "required_final_county_share_points": 33.44575257067542, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 33.44575257067542, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 33.9780176856445, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 33.9780176856445, "required_final_county_share_points": 33.9780176856445, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.159018308558073, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999906, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 34.506289168794844, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 34.506289168794844, "required_final_county_share_points": 34.506289168794844, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.213613509684069, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.999999999999993, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -28.913452485034647, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "WELL BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.00041247125742088065, "criticality_score": 1.4265721384686668e-05, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 5372.748997125243, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 10019.963353169673, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 12449.14464380674, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } } } }, { "cid": "fips:26085", "county": "Lake", "fips": "26085", "reporting": 61.51, "current_votes": 799, "current_candidate_votes": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 276, "Haley Stevens": 479, "Mallory McMorrow": 44 }, "current_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 34.54317897371715, "Haley Stevens": 59.94993742177722, "Mallory McMorrow": 5.506883604505632 }, "estimated_remaining_votes": 506.3753173110221, "estimated_final_votes": 1305.3753173110222, "turnout_disagreement_votes": 5.684341886080802e-14, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 39.11686072945762, "Haley Stevens": 55.90233128974575, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.980807980796619 }, "remaining_sources": [ { "model": "v3", "remaining_votes": 506.3753173110222, "weight": 0.1342208488636769 }, { "model": "histgeo", "remaining_votes": 506.3753173110222, "weight": 0.05994207394479305 }, { "model": "latent", "remaining_votes": 506.3753173110222, "weight": 0.07672787409296966 }, { "model": "batchbias", "remaining_votes": 506.3753173110222, "weight": 0.045123489075924846 } ], "share_sources": [ { "model": "v0", "weight": 0.03630604611298715, "source": "statewide raw" }, { "model": "v1", "weight": 0.14599140026529184, "source": "county live" }, { "model": "v3", "weight": 0.15004242351696637, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "market", "weight": 0.0786646379365536, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "histgeo", "weight": 0.06573339512824654, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "latent", "weight": 0.08483492578364633, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "batchbias", "weight": 0.04883898267529022, "source": "county remaining" } ], "candidate_benchmarks": { "Abdul El-Sayed": { "opponent": "Haley Stevens", "expected_remaining_share_points": 39.11686072945762, "expected_final_county_share_points": 36.31738101326045, "current_county_share_points": 34.54317897371715, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 37.94081195697267, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 37.94081195697267, "required_final_county_share_points": 35.861173467091255, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 37.94081195697267, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": -4520.308982276743, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": false }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 37.94081195697267, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 37.94081195697267, "required_final_county_share_points": 35.861173467091255, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 37.94081195697267, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 38.56471605988728, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 38.56471605988728, "required_final_county_share_points": 36.103195538364844, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.024044322225107804, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999973, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 39.19189925850463, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 39.19189925850463, "required_final_county_share_points": 36.34648962168352, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.003259695682198218, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.9999999999999996, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": 1.176048772484954, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "ABOVE", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.0004124712574208806, "criticality_score": 0.00035072631941049674, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -5329.099836310145, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -681.8854802657142, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1747.2958103713522, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Haley Stevens": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 55.90233128974575, "expected_final_county_share_points": 58.37980827020148, "current_county_share_points": 59.94993742177722, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 57.07838006223073, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 57.07838006223073, "required_final_county_share_points": 58.836015816370676, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 57.07838006223073, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 4615.328174295947, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 57.07838006223073, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 57.07838006223073, "required_final_county_share_points": 58.836015816370676, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 57.07838006223073, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 57.69902457924698, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 57.69902457924698, "required_final_county_share_points": 59.0767734437547, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.07865391656842785, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.999999999999999, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 58.31642887030091, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 58.31642887030091, "required_final_county_share_points": 59.316274137268366, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.10597932088248406, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -1.1760487724849753, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.0004124712574208806, "criticality_score": 0.0003507263194104904, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 5424.119028329349, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 10071.333384373778, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 12500.514675010847, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Mallory McMorrow": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 4.980807980796619, "expected_final_county_share_points": 5.302810716538061, "current_county_share_points": 5.506883604505632, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 32.618089802627765, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 32.618089802627765, "required_final_county_share_points": 16.023740679402863, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 32.618089802627765, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 109782.5713378089, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 32.618089802627765, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 32.618089802627765, "required_final_county_share_points": 16.023740679402863, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 32.618089802627765, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 33.06865824537867, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 33.06865824537867, "required_final_county_share_points": 16.198523161607532, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.159018308558073, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999906, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 33.51400724966242, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 33.51400724966242, "required_final_county_share_points": 16.37128094273585, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.213613509684069, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.999999999999993, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -27.637281821831145, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "WELL BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.0004124712574208806, "criticality_score": 1.4924450967354639e-05, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 5373.197505020399, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 10020.41186106483, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 12449.593151701898, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } } } }, { "cid": "26149", "county": "26149", "fips": null, "reporting": 0.0, "current_votes": 0, "current_candidate_votes": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 0, "Haley Stevens": 0, "Mallory McMorrow": 0 }, "current_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": null, "Haley Stevens": null, "Mallory McMorrow": null }, "estimated_remaining_votes": 431.73944174167264, "estimated_final_votes": 431.73944174167264, "turnout_disagreement_votes": 0.0, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 48.09341329613262, "Haley Stevens": 47.29472391385695, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.611862790010428 }, "remaining_sources": [ { "model": "market", "remaining_votes": 431.73944174167264, "weight": 0.1780093144963334 } ], "share_sources": [ { "model": "v0", "weight": 0.03630604611298715, "source": "statewide raw" }, { "model": "v3", "weight": 0.06301781787712588, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "market", "weight": 0.18729675699179427, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "histgeo", "weight": 0.02760802595386354, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "latent", "weight": 0.03563066882913146, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "batchbias", "weight": 0.020512372723621893, "source": "statewide fallback" } ], "candidate_benchmarks": { "Abdul El-Sayed": { "opponent": "Haley Stevens", "expected_remaining_share_points": 48.09341329613262, "expected_final_county_share_points": 48.093413296132624, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 46.86906565632576, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 46.86906565632576, "required_final_county_share_points": 46.86906565632576, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 46.86906565632576, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": -5299.531762422187, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": false }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 46.86906565632576, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 46.86906565632576, "required_final_county_share_points": 46.86906565632576, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 46.86906565632576, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 47.52003762443523, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 47.52003762443523, "required_final_county_share_points": 47.52003762443523, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.024044322225107804, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999973, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.171140791551124, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.171140791551124, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.171140791551124, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.003259695682198218, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.9999999999999996, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": 1.224347639806858, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "ABOVE", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.0003516761270257525, "criticality_score": 0.0002872355167697548, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -6248.140311359131, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -797.5504031005931, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 2051.569524164121, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Haley Stevens": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 47.29472391385695, "expected_final_county_share_points": 47.29472391385695, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.51907155366379, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.51907155366379, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.5190715536638, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 48.51907155366379, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 5394.919899632177, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.51907155366379, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.51907155366379, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.5190715536638, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 48.51907155366379, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 49.169905908368946, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 49.169905908368946, "required_final_county_share_points": 49.169905908368946, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.07865391656842785, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.999999999999999, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 49.820596229238916, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 49.820596229238916, "required_final_county_share_points": 49.82059622923891, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.10597932088248406, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -1.2243476398068438, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.0003516761270257525, "criticality_score": 0.0002872355167697581, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 6343.528448569121, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 11794.11835682766, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 14643.238284092375, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Mallory McMorrow": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 4.611862790010428, "expected_final_county_share_points": 4.611862790010428, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 35.91946525106776, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 35.91946525106776, "required_final_county_share_points": 35.91946525106776, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 35.91946525106776, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 128759.72863862103, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 35.91946525106776, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 35.91946525106776, "required_final_county_share_points": 35.91946525106776, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 35.91946525106776, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 36.52837432585997, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 36.52837432585997, "required_final_county_share_points": 36.52837432585997, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.159018308558073, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999906, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 37.13394601749837, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 37.13394601749837, "required_final_county_share_points": 37.13394601749837, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.213613509684069, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.999999999999993, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -31.307602461057336, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "WELL BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.0003516761270257525, "criticality_score": 1.1232930642427593e-05, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 6300.845587445275, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 11751.435495703812, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 14600.555422968528, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } } } }, { "cid": "26041", "county": "26041", "fips": null, "reporting": 0.0, "current_votes": 0, "current_candidate_votes": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 0, "Haley Stevens": 0, "Mallory McMorrow": 0 }, "current_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": null, "Haley Stevens": null, "Mallory McMorrow": null }, "estimated_remaining_votes": 396.7759728493211, "estimated_final_votes": 396.7759728493211, "turnout_disagreement_votes": 0.0, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 48.08364132586007, "Haley Stevens": 45.5273372645442, "Mallory McMorrow": 6.389021409595729 }, "remaining_sources": [ { "model": "market", "remaining_votes": 396.7759728493211, "weight": 0.1780093144963334 } ], "share_sources": [ { "model": "v0", "weight": 0.03630604611298715, "source": "statewide raw" }, { "model": "v3", "weight": 0.06301781787712588, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "market", "weight": 0.18729675699179427, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "histgeo", "weight": 0.02760802595386354, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "latent", "weight": 0.03563066882913146, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "batchbias", "weight": 0.020512372723621893, "source": "statewide fallback" } ], "candidate_benchmarks": { "Abdul El-Sayed": { "opponent": "Haley Stevens", "expected_remaining_share_points": 48.08364132586007, "expected_final_county_share_points": 48.08364132586007, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 46.882332138824054, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 46.882332138824054, "required_final_county_share_points": 46.882332138824054, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 46.882332138824054, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": -5770.768471690379, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": false }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 46.882332138824054, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 46.882332138824054, "required_final_county_share_points": 46.882332138824054, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 46.882332138824054, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 47.521200255812126, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 47.521200255812126, "required_final_county_share_points": 47.52120025581212, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.024044322225107804, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999973, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.15986680414474, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.15986680414474, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.15986680414474, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.003259695682198218, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.9999999999999996, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": 1.201309187036017, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "ABOVE", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.0003231964095418802, "criticality_score": 0.00026903682501529914, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -6802.9673783135395, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -872.077392069347, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 2228.1038966788874, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Haley Stevens": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 45.5273372645442, "expected_final_county_share_points": 45.5273372645442, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 46.72864645158021, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 46.72864645158021, "required_final_county_share_points": 46.72864645158021, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 46.72864645158021, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 5864.379450280782, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 46.72864645158021, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 46.72864645158021, "required_final_county_share_points": 46.72864645158021, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 46.72864645158021, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 47.36770989370302, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 47.36770989370302, "required_final_county_share_points": 47.36770989370302, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.07865391656842785, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.999999999999999, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.00696239847128, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.00696239847128, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.00696239847128, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.10597932088248406, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -1.20130918703601, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.0003231964095418802, "criticality_score": 0.00026903682501530076, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 6896.578356903944, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 12827.468343148135, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 15927.649631896371, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Mallory McMorrow": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 6.389021409595729, "expected_final_county_share_points": 6.38902140959573, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 40.73450052487804, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 40.73450052487804, "required_final_county_share_points": 40.73450052487804, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 40.73450052487804, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 140107.26720460394, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 40.73450052487804, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 40.73450052487804, "required_final_county_share_points": 40.73450052487804, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 40.73450052487804, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 41.279401133486175, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 41.279401133486175, "required_final_county_share_points": 41.279401133486175, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.159018308558073, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999906, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 41.81752857507337, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 41.81752857507337, "required_final_county_share_points": 41.81752857507337, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.213613509684069, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.999999999999993, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -34.34547911528231, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "WELL BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.0003231964095418802, "criticality_score": 9.410158712797553e-06, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 6857.440041048995, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 12788.330027293187, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 15888.511316041422, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } } } }, { "cid": "fips:26041", "county": "Delta", "fips": "26041", "reporting": 89.81, "current_votes": 4266, "current_candidate_votes": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 1995, "Haley Stevens": 1874, "Mallory McMorrow": 397 }, "current_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 46.76511954992968, "Haley Stevens": 43.92873886544773, "Mallory McMorrow": 9.306141584622598 }, "estimated_remaining_votes": 396.775972849321, "estimated_final_votes": 4662.775972849321, "turnout_disagreement_votes": 5.684341886080802e-14, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 47.48700038799759, "Haley Stevens": 44.73470989203269, "Mallory McMorrow": 7.778289719969729 }, "remaining_sources": [ { "model": "v3", "remaining_votes": 396.7759728493211, "weight": 0.1342208488636769 }, { "model": "histgeo", "remaining_votes": 396.7759728493211, "weight": 0.05994207394479305 }, { "model": "latent", "remaining_votes": 396.7759728493211, "weight": 0.07672787409296966 }, { "model": "batchbias", "remaining_votes": 396.7759728493211, "weight": 0.045123489075924846 } ], "share_sources": [ { "model": "v0", "weight": 0.03630604611298715, "source": "statewide raw" }, { "model": "v1", "weight": 0.14599140026529184, "source": "county live" }, { "model": "v3", "weight": 0.15004242351696637, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "market", "weight": 0.0786646379365536, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "histgeo", "weight": 0.06573339512824654, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "latent", "weight": 0.08483492578364633, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "batchbias", "weight": 0.04883898267529022, "source": "county remaining" } ], "candidate_benchmarks": { "Abdul El-Sayed": { "opponent": "Haley Stevens", "expected_remaining_share_points": 47.48700038799759, "expected_final_county_share_points": 46.826547543355375, "current_county_share_points": 46.76511954992968, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 46.303614269873, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 46.303614269873, "required_final_county_share_points": 46.725848049961456, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 46.303614269873, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": -5771.365112628237, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": false }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 46.303614269873, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 46.303614269873, "required_final_county_share_points": 46.725848049961456, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 46.303614269873, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 46.932969918797156, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 46.932969918797156, "required_final_county_share_points": 46.77940267092633, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.024044322225107804, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999973, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 47.56208340910016, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 47.56208340910016, "required_final_county_share_points": 46.83293668555648, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.003259695682198218, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.9999999999999996, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": 1.183386118124588, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "ABOVE", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.00032319640954188016, "criticality_score": 0.00027311154372342716, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -6803.564019251403, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -872.6740330072097, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 2227.5072557410253, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Haley Stevens": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 44.73470989203269, "expected_final_county_share_points": 43.99732246028987, "current_county_share_points": 43.92873886544773, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 45.91809601015729, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 45.91809601015729, "required_final_county_share_points": 44.09802195368379, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 45.91809601015729, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 5863.586822908267, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 45.91809601015729, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 45.91809601015729, "required_final_county_share_points": 44.09802195368379, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 45.91809601015729, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 46.54768771232132, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 46.54768771232132, "required_final_county_share_points": 44.15159666144985, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.07865391656842785, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.999999999999999, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 47.177509341970435, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 47.177509341970435, "required_final_county_share_points": 44.20519093474986, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.10597932088248406, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -1.1833861181246021, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.00032319640954188016, "criticality_score": 0.0002731115437234239, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 6895.785729531433, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 12826.675715775626, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 15926.857004523861, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Mallory McMorrow": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 7.778289719969729, "expected_final_county_share_points": 9.176129996354751, "current_county_share_points": 9.306141584622598, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 43.39344995198057, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 43.39344995198057, "required_final_county_share_points": 12.2067795346394, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 43.39344995198057, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 140108.6564729143, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 43.39344995198057, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 43.39344995198057, "required_final_county_share_points": 12.2067795346394, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 43.39344995198057, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 43.88688984856548, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 43.88688984856548, "required_final_county_share_points": 12.24876849060687, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.159018308558073, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999906, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 44.37228310234459, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 44.37228310234459, "required_final_county_share_points": 12.290072722593168, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.213613509684069, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.999999999999993, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -35.615160232010844, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "WELL BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.00032319640954188016, "criticality_score": 9.074686381767048e-06, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 6858.82930935937, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 12789.719295603563, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 15889.900584351799, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } } } }, { "cid": "fips:26013", "county": "Baraga", "fips": "26013", "reporting": 66.21, "current_votes": 527, "current_candidate_votes": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 227, "Haley Stevens": 251, "Mallory McMorrow": 49 }, "current_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 43.07400379506641, "Haley Stevens": 47.6280834914611, "Mallory McMorrow": 9.297912713472485 }, "estimated_remaining_votes": 336.3151388567894, "estimated_final_votes": 863.3151388567894, "turnout_disagreement_votes": 0.0, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 44.94674107975395, "Haley Stevens": 47.400994030102744, "Mallory McMorrow": 7.652264890143298 }, "remaining_sources": [ { "model": "v3", "remaining_votes": 336.3151388567894, "weight": 0.1342208488636769 }, { "model": "histgeo", "remaining_votes": 336.3151388567894, "weight": 0.05994207394479305 }, { "model": "latent", "remaining_votes": 336.3151388567894, "weight": 0.07672787409296966 }, { "model": "batchbias", "remaining_votes": 336.3151388567894, "weight": 0.045123489075924846 } ], "share_sources": [ { "model": "v0", "weight": 0.03630604611298715, "source": "statewide raw" }, { "model": "v1", "weight": 0.14599140026529184, "source": "county live" }, { "model": "v3", "weight": 0.15004242351696637, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "market", "weight": 0.0786646379365536, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "histgeo", "weight": 0.06573339512824654, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "latent", "weight": 0.08483492578364633, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "batchbias", "weight": 0.04883898267529022, "source": "county remaining" } ], "candidate_benchmarks": { "Abdul El-Sayed": { "opponent": "Haley Stevens", "expected_remaining_share_points": 44.94674107975395, "expected_final_county_share_points": 43.80355187269656, "current_county_share_points": 43.07400379506641, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 43.76323433444735, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 43.76323433444735, "required_final_county_share_points": 43.34250211523162, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 43.76323433444735, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": -6819.985702509919, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": false }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 43.76323433444735, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 43.76323433444735, "required_final_county_share_points": 43.34250211523162, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 43.76323433444735, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 44.39222735989403, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 44.39222735989403, "required_final_county_share_points": 43.587534163404875, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.024044322225107804, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999973, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 45.02194749588468, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 45.02194749588468, "required_final_county_share_points": 43.83284946652473, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.003259695682198218, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.9999999999999996, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": 1.1835067453066017, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "ABOVE", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.0002739476500366905, "criticality_score": 0.00023147113535522865, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -8037.747492067101, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -1040.6356399110903, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 2616.878711163475, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Haley Stevens": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 47.400994030102744, "expected_final_county_share_points": 47.53961797024856, "current_county_share_points": 47.6280834914611, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.584500775409346, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.584500775409346, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.0006677277135, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 48.584500775409346, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 6912.333437619776, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.584500775409346, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.584500775409346, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.0006677277135, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 48.584500775409346, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 49.21276172169905, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 49.21276172169905, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.24541458535521, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.07865391656842785, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.999999999999999, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 49.84028563522187, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 49.84028563522187, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.48987432272509, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.10597932088248406, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -1.1835067453066017, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.0002739476500366905, "criticality_score": 0.00023147113535522865, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 8130.095227176958, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 15127.207079332968, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 18784.721430407535, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Mallory McMorrow": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 7.652264890143298, "expected_final_county_share_points": 8.656830157054884, "current_county_share_points": 9.297912713472485, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 41.63898097603891, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 41.63898097603891, "required_final_county_share_points": 21.89677768635491, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 41.63898097603891, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 165295.07413694586, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 41.63898097603891, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 41.63898097603891, "required_final_county_share_points": 21.89677768635491, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 41.63898097603891, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 42.098105434570265, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 42.098105434570265, "required_final_county_share_points": 22.075635323703878, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.159018308558073, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999906, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 42.54943734201543, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 42.54943734201543, "required_final_county_share_points": 22.25145727595636, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.213613509684069, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.999999999999993, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -33.98671608589561, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "WELL BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.0002739476500366905, "criticality_score": 8.060433062857109e-06, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 8090.346498036999, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 15087.458350193008, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 18744.972701267576, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } } } }, { "cid": "26013", "county": "26013", "fips": null, "reporting": 0.0, "current_votes": 0, "current_candidate_votes": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 0, "Haley Stevens": 0, "Mallory McMorrow": 0 }, "current_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": null, "Haley Stevens": null, "Mallory McMorrow": null }, "estimated_remaining_votes": 336.3151388567894, "estimated_final_votes": 336.3151388567894, "turnout_disagreement_votes": 0.0, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 46.650172572260715, "Haley Stevens": 47.10924830144807, "Mallory McMorrow": 6.240579126291228 }, "remaining_sources": [ { "model": "market", "remaining_votes": 336.3151388567894, "weight": 0.1780093144963334 } ], "share_sources": [ { "model": "v0", "weight": 0.03630604611298715, "source": "statewide raw" }, { "model": "v3", "weight": 0.06301781787712588, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "market", "weight": 0.18729675699179427, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "histgeo", "weight": 0.02760802595386354, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "latent", "weight": 0.03563066882913146, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "batchbias", "weight": 0.020512372723621893, "source": "statewide fallback" } ], "candidate_benchmarks": { "Abdul El-Sayed": { "opponent": "Haley Stevens", "expected_remaining_share_points": 46.650172572260715, "expected_final_county_share_points": 46.650172572260715, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 45.44708452518822, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 45.44708452518822, "required_final_county_share_points": 45.44708452518822, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 45.44708452518822, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": -6818.28227101741, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": false }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 45.44708452518822, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 45.44708452518822, "required_final_county_share_points": 45.44708452518822, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 45.44708452518822, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 46.08665097214028, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 46.08665097214028, "required_final_county_share_points": 46.08665097214028, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.024044322225107804, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999973, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 46.7265780774185, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 46.7265780774185, "required_final_county_share_points": 46.7265780774185, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.003259695682198218, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.9999999999999996, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": 1.203088047072498, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "ABOVE", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.0002739476500366905, "criticality_score": 0.00022770374180284948, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -8036.044060574594, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -1038.9322084185835, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 2618.582142655982, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Haley Stevens": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 47.10924830144807, "expected_final_county_share_points": 47.109248301448076, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.31233634852057, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.31233634852057, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.31233634852057, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 48.31233634852057, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 6912.041691891119, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.31233634852057, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.31233634852057, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.31233634852057, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 48.31233634852057, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.95153610443062, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.95153610443062, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.95153610443062, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.07865391656842785, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.999999999999999, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 49.59036313950515, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 49.59036313950515, "required_final_county_share_points": 49.59036313950515, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.10597932088248406, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -1.203088047072498, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.0002739476500366905, "criticality_score": 0.00022770374180284948, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 8129.8034814483035, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 15126.915333604313, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 18784.42968467888, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Mallory McMorrow": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 6.240579126291228, "expected_final_county_share_points": 6.240579126291228, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 39.61884293840008, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 39.61884293840008, "required_final_county_share_points": 39.61884293840008, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 39.61884293840008, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 165293.662451182, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 39.61884293840008, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 39.61884293840008, "required_final_county_share_points": 39.61884293840008, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 39.61884293840008, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 40.14611042620819, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 40.14611042620819, "required_final_county_share_points": 40.14611042620818, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.159018308558073, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999906, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 40.66675409795603, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 40.66675409795603, "required_final_county_share_points": 40.66675409795603, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.213613509684069, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.999999999999993, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -33.37826381210885, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "WELL BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.0002739476500366905, "criticality_score": 8.207366673676681e-06, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 8088.934812273146, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 15086.046664429157, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 18743.56101550372, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } } } }, { "cid": "26039", "county": "26039", "fips": null, "reporting": 0.0, "current_votes": 0, "current_candidate_votes": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 0, "Haley Stevens": 0, "Mallory McMorrow": 0 }, "current_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": null, "Haley Stevens": null, "Mallory McMorrow": null }, "estimated_remaining_votes": 288.24888430558144, "estimated_final_votes": 288.24888430558144, "turnout_disagreement_votes": 0.0, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 45.054644259731226, "Haley Stevens": 49.856409673163114, "Mallory McMorrow": 5.0889460671056606 }, "remaining_sources": [ { "model": "market", "remaining_votes": 288.24888430558144, "weight": 0.1780093144963334 } ], "share_sources": [ { "model": "v0", "weight": 0.03630604611298715, "source": "statewide raw" }, { "model": "v3", "weight": 0.06301781787712588, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "market", "weight": 0.18729675699179427, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "histgeo", "weight": 0.02760802595386354, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "latent", "weight": 0.03563066882913146, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "batchbias", "weight": 0.020512372723621893, "source": "statewide fallback" } ], "candidate_benchmarks": { "Abdul El-Sayed": { "opponent": "Haley Stevens", "expected_remaining_share_points": 45.054644259731226, "expected_final_county_share_points": 45.05464425973122, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 43.84128990411485, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 43.84128990411485, "required_final_county_share_points": 43.84128990411485, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 43.84128990411485, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": -7964.6232199596325, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": false }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 43.84128990411485, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 43.84128990411485, "required_final_county_share_points": 43.84128990411485, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 43.84128990411485, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 44.485959841390354, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 44.485959841390354, "required_final_county_share_points": 44.485959841390354, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.024044322225107804, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999973, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 45.13179787023734, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 45.13179787023734, "required_final_county_share_points": 45.13179787023735, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.003259695682198218, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.9999999999999996, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": 1.2133543556163744, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "ABOVE", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.00023479497458732312, "criticality_score": 0.0001935089889449889, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -9385.449969509973, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -1221.5514350074086, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 3045.862989911232, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Haley Stevens": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 49.856409673163114, "expected_final_county_share_points": 49.856409673163114, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 51.06976402877949, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 51.06976402877949, "required_final_county_share_points": 51.06976402877949, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 51.06976402877949, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 8059.534273892528, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 51.06976402877949, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 51.06976402877949, "required_final_county_share_points": 51.06976402877949, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 51.06976402877949, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 51.713262664433465, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 51.713262664433465, "required_final_county_share_points": 51.713262664433465, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.07865391656842785, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.999999999999999, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 52.355586811943496, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 52.355586811943496, "required_final_county_share_points": 52.355586811943496, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.10597932088248406, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -1.2133543556163744, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.00023479497458732312, "criticality_score": 0.0001935089889449889, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 9480.361023442867, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 17644.259557945432, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 21911.673982864075, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Mallory McMorrow": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 5.0889460671056606, "expected_final_county_share_points": 5.08894606710566, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 35.90023644549594, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 35.90023644549594, "required_final_county_share_points": 35.90023644549594, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 35.90023644549594, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 192854.62025335888, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 35.90023644549594, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 35.90023644549594, "required_final_county_share_points": 35.90023644549594, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 35.90023644549594, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 36.44202928475702, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 36.44202928475702, "required_final_county_share_points": 36.44202928475702, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.159018308558073, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999906, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 36.97889009581678, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 36.97889009581678, "required_final_county_share_points": 36.97889009581678, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.213613509684069, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.999999999999993, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -30.811290378390282, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "WELL BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.00023479497458732312, "criticality_score": 7.62042003771443e-06, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 9435.59355983681, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 17599.492094339374, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 21866.906519258016, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } } } }, { "cid": "fips:26039", "county": "Crawford", "fips": "26039", "reporting": 81.36, "current_votes": 1135, "current_candidate_votes": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 457, "Haley Stevens": 603, "Mallory McMorrow": 75 }, "current_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 40.264317180616736, "Haley Stevens": 53.12775330396475, "Mallory McMorrow": 6.607929515418502 }, "estimated_remaining_votes": 288.2488843055814, "estimated_final_votes": 1423.2488843055814, "turnout_disagreement_votes": 5.684341886080802e-14, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 42.80005387347693, "Haley Stevens": 51.38073778693716, "Mallory McMorrow": 5.81920833958592 }, "remaining_sources": [ { "model": "v3", "remaining_votes": 288.24888430558144, "weight": 0.1342208488636769 }, { "model": "histgeo", "remaining_votes": 288.24888430558144, "weight": 0.05994207394479305 }, { "model": "latent", "remaining_votes": 288.24888430558144, "weight": 0.07672787409296966 }, { "model": "batchbias", "remaining_votes": 288.24888430558144, "weight": 0.045123489075924846 } ], "share_sources": [ { "model": "v0", "weight": 0.03630604611298715, "source": "statewide raw" }, { "model": "v1", "weight": 0.14599140026529184, "source": "county live" }, { "model": "v3", "weight": 0.15004242351696637, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "market", "weight": 0.0786646379365536, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "histgeo", "weight": 0.06573339512824654, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "latent", "weight": 0.08483492578364633, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "batchbias", "weight": 0.04883898267529022, "source": "county remaining" } ], "candidate_benchmarks": { "Abdul El-Sayed": { "opponent": "Haley Stevens", "expected_remaining_share_points": 42.80005387347693, "expected_final_county_share_points": 40.7778768824157, "current_county_share_points": 40.264317180616736, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 41.60420753215299, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 41.60420753215299, "required_final_county_share_points": 40.53568356156464, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 41.60420753215299, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": -7966.877810345888, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": false }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 41.60420753215299, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 41.60420753215299, "required_final_county_share_points": 40.53568356156464, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 41.60420753215299, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 42.239266117793015, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 42.239266117793015, "required_final_county_share_points": 40.66430121291009, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.024044322225107804, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999973, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 42.87617820330037, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 42.87617820330037, "required_final_county_share_points": 40.79329425135382, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.003259695682198218, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.9999999999999996, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": 1.1958463413239357, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "ABOVE", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.00023479497458732306, "criticality_score": 0.00019634209385745893, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -9387.70455989623, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -1223.8060253936633, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 3043.6083995249787, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Haley Stevens": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 51.38073778693716, "expected_final_county_share_points": 52.773932353039896, "current_county_share_points": 53.12775330396475, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 52.57658412826108, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 52.57658412826108, "required_final_county_share_points": 53.016125673890954, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 52.57658412826108, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 8061.058602006303, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 52.57658412826108, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 52.57658412826108, "required_final_county_share_points": 53.016125673890954, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 52.57658412826108, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 53.20979102242557, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 53.20979102242557, "required_final_county_share_points": 53.14436830438953, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.07865391656842785, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.999999999999999, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 53.8411480484796, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 53.8411480484796, "required_final_county_share_points": 53.27223628332518, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.10597932088248406, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -1.1958463413239215, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.00023479497458732306, "criticality_score": 0.00019634209385746126, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 9481.885351556646, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 17645.783886059213, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 21913.198310977856, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Mallory McMorrow": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 5.81920833958592, "expected_final_county_share_points": 6.448190764544403, "current_county_share_points": 6.607929515418502, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 36.566907984579835, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 36.566907984579835, "required_final_county_share_points": 12.67548538277062, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 36.566907984579835, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 192855.35051563143, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 36.566907984579835, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 36.566907984579835, "required_final_county_share_points": 12.67548538277062, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 36.566907984579835, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 37.04758941859295, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 37.04758941859295, "required_final_county_share_points": 12.772837215319777, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.159018308558073, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999906, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 37.52208032927257, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 37.52208032927257, "required_final_county_share_points": 12.868935288625677, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.213613509684069, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.999999999999993, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -30.747699644993915, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "WELL BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.00023479497458732306, "criticality_score": 7.636180179272384e-06, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 9436.323822109294, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 17600.22235661186, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 21867.636781530502, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } } } }, { "cid": "fips:26063", "county": "Huron", "fips": "26063", "reporting": 91.36, "current_votes": 2200, "current_candidate_votes": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 760, "Haley Stevens": 1314, "Mallory McMorrow": 126 }, "current_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 34.54545454545455, "Haley Stevens": 59.72727272727273, "Mallory McMorrow": 5.7272727272727275 }, "estimated_remaining_votes": 251.93734469721267, "estimated_final_votes": 2451.9373446972127, "turnout_disagreement_votes": 0.0, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 38.64033651005351, "Haley Stevens": 56.173005201419045, "Mallory McMorrow": 5.186658288527445 }, "remaining_sources": [ { "model": "v3", "remaining_votes": 251.93734469721267, "weight": 0.1342208488636769 }, { "model": "histgeo", "remaining_votes": 251.93734469721267, "weight": 0.05994207394479305 }, { "model": "latent", "remaining_votes": 251.93734469721267, "weight": 0.07672787409296966 }, { "model": "batchbias", "remaining_votes": 251.93734469721267, "weight": 0.045123489075924846 } ], "share_sources": [ { "model": "v0", "weight": 0.03630604611298715, "source": "statewide raw" }, { "model": "v1", "weight": 0.14599140026529184, "source": "county live" }, { "model": "v3", "weight": 0.15004242351696637, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "market", "weight": 0.0786646379365536, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "histgeo", "weight": 0.06573339512824654, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "latent", "weight": 0.08483492578364633, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "batchbias", "weight": 0.04883898267529022, "source": "county remaining" } ], "candidate_benchmarks": { "Abdul El-Sayed": { "opponent": "Haley Stevens", "expected_remaining_share_points": 38.64033651005351, "expected_final_county_share_points": 34.966204974188265, "current_county_share_points": 34.54545454545455, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 37.47070203465057, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 37.47070203465057, "required_final_county_share_points": 34.84602465855474, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 37.47070203465057, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": -9125.466361459316, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": false }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 37.47070203465057, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 37.47070203465057, "required_final_county_share_points": 34.84602465855474, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 37.47070203465057, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 38.09114178741645, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 38.09114178741645, "required_final_county_share_points": 34.90977504116321, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.024044322225107804, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999973, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 38.71498253549025, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 38.71498253549025, "required_final_county_share_points": 34.97387487712498, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.003259695682198218, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.9999999999999996, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": 1.1696344754029369, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "ABOVE", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.00020521717746899986, "criticality_score": 0.00017545411133534084, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -10751.0757995584, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -1410.5207223326024, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 3471.9529273388816, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Haley Stevens": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 56.173005201419045, "expected_final_county_share_points": 59.36207060465581, "current_county_share_points": 59.72727272727273, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 57.342639676821996, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 57.342639676821996, "required_final_county_share_points": 59.48225092028934, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 57.342639676821996, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 9220.279703170787, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 57.342639676821996, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 57.342639676821996, "required_final_county_share_points": 59.48225092028934, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 57.342639676821996, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 57.95970006739882, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 57.95970006739882, "required_final_county_share_points": 59.54565407235436, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.07865391656842785, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.999999999999999, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 58.573402549759855, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 58.573402549759855, "required_final_county_share_points": 59.608712198278546, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.10597932088248406, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -1.169634475402951, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.00020521717746899986, "criticality_score": 0.0001754541113353387, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 10845.889141269874, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 20186.444218495668, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 25068.917868167155, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Mallory McMorrow": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 5.186658288527445, "expected_final_county_share_points": 5.671724421155925, "current_county_share_points": 5.7272727272727275, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 32.85741682191905, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 32.85741682191905, "required_final_county_share_points": 8.514903691514196, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 32.85741682191905, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 220649.9755639968, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 32.85741682191905, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 32.85741682191905, "required_final_county_share_points": 8.514903691514196, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 32.85741682191905, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 33.29357348243505, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 33.29357348243505, "required_final_county_share_points": 8.559718927580507, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.159018308558073, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999906, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 33.72422195396603, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 33.72422195396603, "required_final_county_share_points": 8.60396819547068, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.213613509684069, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.999999999999993, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -27.670758533391606, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "WELL BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.00020521717746899986, "criticality_score": 7.416391466874847e-06, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 10794.902794356982, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 20135.457871582777, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 25017.931521254264, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } } } }, { "cid": "26063", "county": "26063", "fips": null, "reporting": 0.0, "current_votes": 0, "current_candidate_votes": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 0, "Haley Stevens": 0, "Mallory McMorrow": 0 }, "current_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": null, "Haley Stevens": null, "Mallory McMorrow": null }, "estimated_remaining_votes": 251.93734469721267, "estimated_final_votes": 251.93734469721267, "turnout_disagreement_votes": 0.0, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 42.41133648852992, "Haley Stevens": 52.910001196695674, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.678662314774414 }, "remaining_sources": [ { "model": "market", "remaining_votes": 251.93734469721267, "weight": 0.1780093144963334 } ], "share_sources": [ { "model": "v0", "weight": 0.03630604611298715, "source": "statewide raw" }, { "model": "v3", "weight": 0.06301781787712588, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "market", "weight": 0.18729675699179427, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "histgeo", "weight": 0.02760802595386354, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "latent", "weight": 0.03563066882913146, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "batchbias", "weight": 0.020512372723621893, "source": "statewide fallback" } ], "candidate_benchmarks": { "Abdul El-Sayed": { "opponent": "Haley Stevens", "expected_remaining_share_points": 42.41133648852992, "expected_final_county_share_points": 42.41133648852992, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 41.206269829798885, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 41.206269829798885, "required_final_county_share_points": 41.206269829798885, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 41.206269829798885, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": -9121.695361480834, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": false }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 41.206269829798885, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 41.206269829798885, "required_final_county_share_points": 41.206269829798885, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 41.206269829798885, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 41.84607868120022, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 41.84607868120022, "required_final_county_share_points": 41.84607868120022, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.024044322225107804, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999973, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 42.48808752368594, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 42.48808752368594, "required_final_county_share_points": 42.48808752368594, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.003259695682198218, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.9999999999999996, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": 1.2050666587310346, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "ABOVE", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.00020521717746899986, "criticality_score": 0.00017029529112115566, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -10747.304799579924, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -1406.7497223541259, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 3475.7239273173577, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Haley Stevens": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 52.910001196695674, "expected_final_county_share_points": 52.910001196695674, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 54.1150678554267, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 54.1150678554267, "required_final_county_share_points": 54.1150678554267, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 54.1150678554267, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 9217.016699166059, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 54.1150678554267, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 54.1150678554267, "required_final_county_share_points": 54.1150678554267, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 54.1150678554267, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 54.75268169179759, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 54.75268169179759, "required_final_county_share_points": 54.75268169179759, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.07865391656842785, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.999999999999999, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 55.388105487310035, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 55.388105487310035, "required_final_county_share_points": 55.388105487310035, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.10597932088248406, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -1.2050666587310275, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.00020521717746899986, "criticality_score": 0.00017029529112115666, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 10842.62613726515, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 20183.181214490945, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 25065.654864162432, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Mallory McMorrow": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 4.678662314774414, "expected_final_county_share_points": 4.678662314774414, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 33.48688687497584, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 33.48688687497584, "required_final_county_share_points": 33.48688687497584, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 33.48688687497584, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 220649.46756802304, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 33.48688687497584, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 33.48688687497584, "required_final_county_share_points": 33.48688687497584, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 33.48688687497584, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 34.0009717077662, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 34.0009717077662, "required_final_county_share_points": 34.0009717077662, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.159018308558073, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999906, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 34.51063677540445, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 34.51063677540445, "required_final_county_share_points": 34.51063677540445, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.213613509684069, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.999999999999993, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -28.808224560201424, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "WELL BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.00020521717746899986, "criticality_score": 7.123562128591135e-06, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 10794.39479838323, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 20134.949875609025, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 25017.423525280512, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } } } }, { "cid": "26079", "county": "26079", "fips": null, "reporting": 0.0, "current_votes": 0, "current_candidate_votes": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 0, "Haley Stevens": 0, "Mallory McMorrow": 0 }, "current_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": null, "Haley Stevens": null, "Mallory McMorrow": null }, "estimated_remaining_votes": 216.38155288811413, "estimated_final_votes": 216.38155288811413, "turnout_disagreement_votes": 0.0, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 47.96647548689527, "Haley Stevens": 47.502775719210796, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.530748793893928 }, "remaining_sources": [ { "model": "market", "remaining_votes": 216.38155288811413, "weight": 0.1780093144963334 } ], "share_sources": [ { "model": "v0", "weight": 0.03630604611298715, "source": "statewide raw" }, { "model": "v3", "weight": 0.06301781787712588, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "market", "weight": 0.18729675699179427, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "histgeo", "weight": 0.02760802595386354, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "latent", "weight": 0.03563066882913146, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "batchbias", "weight": 0.020512372723621893, "source": "statewide fallback" } ], "candidate_benchmarks": { "Abdul El-Sayed": { "opponent": "Haley Stevens", "expected_remaining_share_points": 47.96647548689527, "expected_final_county_share_points": 47.96647548689527, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 46.74114031347992, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 46.74114031347992, "required_final_county_share_points": 46.741140313479924, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 46.74114031347992, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": -10621.985177934146, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": false }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 46.74114031347992, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 46.74114031347992, "required_final_county_share_points": 46.741140313479924, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 46.74114031347992, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 47.39260980326423, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 47.39260980326423, "required_final_county_share_points": 47.392609803264236, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.024044322225107804, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999973, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.044273143240204, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.044273143240204, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.044273143240204, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.003259695682198218, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.9999999999999996, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": 1.2253351734153526, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "ABOVE", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.00017625497956019845, "criticality_score": 0.00014384225915014455, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -12514.714571373614, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -1639.3205613715727, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 4045.4405951785297, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Haley Stevens": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 47.502775719210796, "expected_final_county_share_points": 47.50277571921079, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.728110892626155, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.728110892626155, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.72811089262615, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 48.728110892626155, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 10717.454429140253, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.728110892626155, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.728110892626155, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.72811089262615, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 48.728110892626155, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 49.37938016065051, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 49.37938016065051, "required_final_county_share_points": 49.37938016065051, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.07865391656842785, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.999999999999999, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 50.030442831752964, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 50.030442831752964, "required_final_county_share_points": 50.030442831752964, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.10597932088248406, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -1.2253351734153597, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.00017625497956019845, "criticality_score": 0.0001438422591501437, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 12610.18382257972, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 23485.577832581756, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 29170.338989131862, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Mallory McMorrow": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 4.530748793893928, "expected_final_county_share_points": 4.530748793893928, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 35.60512623336344, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 35.60512623336344, "required_final_county_share_points": 35.60512623336344, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 35.60512623336344, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 256905.6459142108, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 35.60512623336344, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 35.60512623336344, "required_final_county_share_points": 35.60512623336344, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 35.60512623336344, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 36.215042364555146, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 36.215042364555146, "required_final_county_share_points": 36.215042364555146, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.159018308558073, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999906, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 36.821827322871094, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 36.821827322871094, "required_final_county_share_points": 36.821827322871094, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.213613509684069, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.999999999999993, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -31.074377439469515, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "WELL BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.00017625497956019845, "criticality_score": 5.672035744031543e-06, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 12567.211795654403, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 23442.60580565644, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 29127.366962206546, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } } } }, { "cid": "fips:26079", "county": "Kalkaska", "fips": "26079", "reporting": 89.08, "current_votes": 1468, "current_candidate_votes": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 685, "Haley Stevens": 704, "Mallory McMorrow": 79 }, "current_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 46.66212534059945, "Haley Stevens": 47.956403269754766, "Mallory McMorrow": 5.381471389645776 }, "estimated_remaining_votes": 216.3815528881141, "estimated_final_votes": 1684.3815528881141, "turnout_disagreement_votes": 2.842170943040401e-14, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 47.42419666440505, "Haley Stevens": 47.64061478778091, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.935188547814027 }, "remaining_sources": [ { "model": "v3", "remaining_votes": 216.38155288811413, "weight": 0.1342208488636769 }, { "model": "histgeo", "remaining_votes": 216.38155288811413, "weight": 0.05994207394479305 }, { "model": "latent", "remaining_votes": 216.38155288811413, "weight": 0.07672787409296966 }, { "model": "batchbias", "remaining_votes": 216.38155288811413, "weight": 0.045123489075924846 } ], "share_sources": [ { "model": "v0", "weight": 0.03630604611298715, "source": "statewide raw" }, { "model": "v1", "weight": 0.14599140026529184, "source": "county live" }, { "model": "v3", "weight": 0.15004242351696637, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "market", "weight": 0.0786646379365536, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "histgeo", "weight": 0.06573339512824654, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "latent", "weight": 0.08483492578364633, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "batchbias", "weight": 0.04883898267529022, "source": "county remaining" } ], "candidate_benchmarks": { "Abdul El-Sayed": { "opponent": "Haley Stevens", "expected_remaining_share_points": 47.42419666440505, "expected_final_county_share_points": 46.76002369158401, "current_county_share_points": 46.66212534059945, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 46.20425335822513, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 46.20425335822513, "required_final_county_share_points": 46.60330550230318, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 46.20425335822513, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": -10622.527456756627, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": false }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 46.20425335822513, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 46.20425335822513, "required_final_county_share_points": 46.60330550230318, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 46.20425335822513, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 46.85280055284729, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 46.85280055284729, "required_final_county_share_points": 46.68662014609807, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.024044322225107804, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999973, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 47.50166707060967, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 47.50166707060967, "required_final_county_share_points": 46.76997581126182, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.003259695682198218, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.9999999999999996, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": 1.2199433061799212, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "ABOVE", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.00017625497956019845, "criticality_score": 0.00014447800866428443, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -12515.256850196103, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -1639.8628401940628, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 4044.8983163560392, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Haley Stevens": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 47.64061478778091, "expected_final_county_share_points": 47.9158359754879, "current_county_share_points": 47.956403269754766, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.86055809396084, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.86055809396084, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.072554164768746, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 48.86055809396084, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 10717.592268208813, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.86055809396084, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.86055809396084, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.072554164768746, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 48.86055809396084, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 49.508779773898276, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 49.508779773898276, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.15582699180732, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.07865391656842785, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.999999999999999, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 50.156669748850845, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 50.156669748850845, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.239057206861915, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.10597932088248406, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -1.2199433061799283, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.00017625497956019845, "criticality_score": 0.0001444780086642836, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 12610.32166164829, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 23485.715671650327, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 29170.476828200433, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Mallory McMorrow": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 4.935188547814027, "expected_final_county_share_points": 5.324140332928078, "current_county_share_points": 5.381471389645776, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 36.59895272971209, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 36.59895272971209, "required_final_county_share_points": 9.391778364355307, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 36.59895272971209, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 256906.0503539647, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 36.59895272971209, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 36.59895272971209, "required_final_county_share_points": 9.391778364355307, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 36.59895272971209, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 37.184784240853055, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 37.184784240853055, "required_final_county_share_points": 9.467036331823616, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.159018308558073, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999906, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 37.766325702218, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 37.766325702218, "required_final_county_share_points": 9.541743184474196, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.213613509684069, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.999999999999993, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -31.66376418189806, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "WELL BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.00017625497956019845, "criticality_score": 5.566456929999565e-06, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 12567.616235408323, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 23443.010245410358, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 29127.771401960465, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } } } }, { "cid": "26029", "county": "26029", "fips": null, "reporting": 0.0, "current_votes": 0, "current_candidate_votes": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 0, "Haley Stevens": 0, "Mallory McMorrow": 0 }, "current_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": null, "Haley Stevens": null, "Mallory McMorrow": null }, "estimated_remaining_votes": 188.7267376707814, "estimated_final_votes": 188.7267376707814, "turnout_disagreement_votes": 0.0, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 49.2334725243315, "Haley Stevens": 46.49050030554237, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.2760271701261265 }, "remaining_sources": [ { "model": "market", "remaining_votes": 188.7267376707814, "weight": 0.1780093144963334 } ], "share_sources": [ { "model": "v0", "weight": 0.03630604611298715, "source": "statewide raw" }, { "model": "v3", "weight": 0.06301781787712588, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "market", "weight": 0.18729675699179427, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "histgeo", "weight": 0.02760802595386354, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "latent", "weight": 0.03563066882913146, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "batchbias", "weight": 0.020512372723621893, "source": "statewide fallback" } ], "candidate_benchmarks": { "Abdul El-Sayed": { "opponent": "Haley Stevens", "expected_remaining_share_points": 49.2334725243315, "expected_final_county_share_points": 49.233472524331496, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.00509747485899, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.00509747485899, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.00509747485899, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 48.00509747485899, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": -12184.225000306502, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": false }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.00509747485899, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.00509747485899, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.00509747485899, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 48.00509747485899, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.658370069574666, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.658370069574666, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.658370069574666, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.024044322225107804, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999973, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 49.31141251753594, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 49.31141251753594, "required_final_county_share_points": 49.31141251753594, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.003259695682198218, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.9999999999999996, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": 1.2283750494725112, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "ABOVE", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.00015372857273016508, "criticality_score": 0.0001251479121105392, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -14354.30291509483, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -1885.2978700366975, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 4632.472012671251, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Haley Stevens": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 46.49050030554237, "expected_final_county_share_points": 46.49050030554237, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 47.71887535501487, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 47.71887535501487, "required_final_county_share_points": 47.71887535501487, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 47.71887535501487, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 12279.948973136376, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 47.71887535501487, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 47.71887535501487, "required_final_county_share_points": 47.71887535501487, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 47.71887535501487, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.372371735927025, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.372371735927025, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.372371735927025, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.07865391656842785, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.999999999999999, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 49.02608552214882, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 49.02608552214882, "required_final_county_share_points": 49.02608552214882, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.10597932088248406, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -1.228375049472504, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.00015372857273016508, "criticality_score": 0.00012514791211053994, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 14450.026887924703, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 26919.03193298283, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 33436.80181569078, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Mallory McMorrow": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 4.2760271701261265, "expected_final_county_share_points": 4.2760271701261265, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 35.29723544216141, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 35.29723544216141, "required_final_county_share_points": 35.29723544216141, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 35.29723544216141, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 294550.04587537836, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 35.29723544216141, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 35.29723544216141, "required_final_county_share_points": 35.29723544216141, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 35.29723544216141, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 35.937432942865264, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 35.937432942865264, "required_final_county_share_points": 35.937432942865264, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.159018308558073, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999906, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 36.575603349208116, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 36.575603349208116, "required_final_county_share_points": 36.575603349208116, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.213613509684069, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.999999999999993, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -31.02120827203528, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "WELL BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.00015372857273016508, "criticality_score": 4.955595906583269e-06, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 14407.812414789287, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 26876.817459847414, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 33394.587342555365, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } } } }, { "cid": "fips:26029", "county": "Charlevoix", "fips": "26029", "reporting": 96.98, "current_votes": 3339, "current_candidate_votes": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 1651, "Haley Stevens": 1527, "Mallory McMorrow": 161 }, "current_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 49.44594189877209, "Haley Stevens": 45.73225516621743, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.821802935010482 }, "estimated_remaining_votes": 160.4771363120394, "estimated_final_votes": 3499.4771363120394, "turnout_disagreement_votes": 2.842170943040401e-14, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 49.43924981923985, "Haley Stevens": 46.031011714043466, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.5297384667166725 }, "remaining_sources": [ { "model": "v3", "remaining_votes": 160.47713631203942, "weight": 0.1342208488636769 }, { "model": "histgeo", "remaining_votes": 160.47713631203942, "weight": 0.05994207394479305 }, { "model": "latent", "remaining_votes": 160.47713631203942, "weight": 0.07672787409296966 }, { "model": "batchbias", "remaining_votes": 160.47713631203942, "weight": 0.045123489075924846 } ], "share_sources": [ { "model": "v0", "weight": 0.03630604611298715, "source": "statewide raw" }, { "model": "v1", "weight": 0.14599140026529184, "source": "county live" }, { "model": "v3", "weight": 0.15004242351696637, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "market", "weight": 0.0786646379365536, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "histgeo", "weight": 0.06573339512824654, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "latent", "weight": 0.08483492578364633, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "batchbias", "weight": 0.04883898267529022, "source": "county remaining" } ], "candidate_benchmarks": { "Abdul El-Sayed": { "opponent": "Haley Stevens", "expected_remaining_share_points": 49.43924981923985, "expected_final_county_share_points": 49.44563501699591, "current_county_share_points": 49.44594189877209, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.21446474971571, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.21446474971571, "required_final_county_share_points": 49.389469483432194, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 48.21446474971571, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": -14337.536746057434, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": false }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.21446474971571, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.21446474971571, "required_final_county_share_points": 49.389469483432194, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 48.21446474971571, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.865883311340504, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.865883311340504, "required_final_county_share_points": 49.41934188471904, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.024044322225107804, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999973, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 49.516947075800104, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 49.516947075800104, "required_final_county_share_points": 49.44919801590872, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.003259695682198218, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.9999999999999996, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": 1.2247850695241382, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "ABOVE", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.00013071767903978, "criticality_score": 0.00010672703504670196, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -16889.62444379068, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -2225.6374221217798, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 5439.4884339411155, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Haley Stevens": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 46.031011714043466, "expected_final_county_share_points": 45.74595538295899, "current_county_share_points": 45.73225516621743, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 47.255796783567604, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 47.255796783567604, "required_final_county_share_points": 45.802120916522696, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 47.255796783567604, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 14433.00700759072, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 47.255796783567604, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 47.255796783567604, "required_final_county_share_points": 45.802120916522696, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 47.255796783567604, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 47.90756396674398, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 47.90756396674398, "required_final_county_share_points": 45.83200930470875, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.07865391656842785, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.999999999999999, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.55967357082501, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.55967357082501, "required_final_county_share_points": 45.861913395448084, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.10597932088248406, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -1.2247850695241382, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.00013071767903978, "criticality_score": 0.00010672703504670196, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 16985.09470532396, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 31649.081726992852, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 39314.20758305576, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Mallory McMorrow": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 4.5297384667166725, "expected_final_county_share_points": 4.80840960004511, "current_county_share_points": 4.821802935010482, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 36.24257063965469, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 36.24257063965469, "required_final_county_share_points": 6.262679564734948, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 36.24257063965469, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 346400.68009157316, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 36.24257063965469, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 36.24257063965469, "required_final_county_share_points": 6.262679564734948, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 36.24257063965469, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 36.87652881205225, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 36.87652881205225, "required_final_county_share_points": 6.291751276903694, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.159018308558073, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999906, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 37.507680426114185, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 37.507680426114185, "required_final_county_share_points": 6.320694287433009, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.213613509684069, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.999999999999993, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -31.712832172938015, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "WELL BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.00013071767903978, "criticality_score": 4.121917535682205e-06, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 16943.593432076636, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 31607.580453745526, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 39272.706309808425, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } } } }, { "cid": "26027", "county": "26027", "fips": null, "reporting": 0.0, "current_votes": 0, "current_candidate_votes": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 0, "Haley Stevens": 0, "Mallory McMorrow": 0 }, "current_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": null, "Haley Stevens": null, "Mallory McMorrow": null }, "estimated_remaining_votes": 98.63631352640779, "estimated_final_votes": 98.63631352640779, "turnout_disagreement_votes": 1.4210854715202004e-14, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 47.325817752519605, "Haley Stevens": 46.180187564996885, "Mallory McMorrow": 6.493994682483506 }, "remaining_sources": [ { "model": "market", "remaining_votes": 98.63631352640778, "weight": 0.1780093144963334 } ], "share_sources": [ { "model": "v0", "weight": 0.03630604611298715, "source": "statewide raw" }, { "model": "v3", "weight": 0.06301781787712588, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "market", "weight": 0.18729675699179427, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "histgeo", "weight": 0.02760802595386354, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "latent", "weight": 0.03563066882913146, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "batchbias", "weight": 0.020512372723621893, "source": "statewide fallback" } ], "candidate_benchmarks": { "Abdul El-Sayed": { "opponent": "Haley Stevens", "expected_remaining_share_points": 47.325817752519605, "expected_final_county_share_points": 47.325817752519605, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 46.12560458796797, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 46.12560458796797, "required_final_county_share_points": 46.12560458796797, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 46.12560458796797, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": -23359.679426722807, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": false }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 46.12560458796797, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 46.12560458796797, "required_final_county_share_points": 46.12560458796797, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 46.12560458796797, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 46.7637742862269, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 46.7637742862269, "required_final_county_share_points": 46.7637742862269, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.024044322225107804, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999973, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 47.40200500570729, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 47.40200500570729, "required_final_county_share_points": 47.40200500570729, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.003259695682198218, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.9999999999999996, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": 1.2002131645516343, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "ABOVE", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 8.034484082605593e-05, "criticality_score": 6.694214261186719e-05, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -27511.81884381251, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -3654.1283034588605, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 8816.70929047672, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Haley Stevens": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 46.180187564996885, "expected_final_county_share_points": 46.180187564996885, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 47.38040072954852, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 47.38040072954852, "required_final_county_share_points": 47.38040072954852, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 47.38040072954852, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 23453.18543204032, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 47.38040072954852, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 47.38040072954852, "required_final_county_share_points": 47.38040072954852, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 47.38040072954852, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.01850308721042, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.01850308721042, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.01850308721042, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.07865391656842785, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.999999999999999, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.65653177631791, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.65653177631791, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.65653177631791, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.10597932088248406, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -1.2002131645516343, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 8.034484082605593e-05, "criticality_score": 6.694214261186719e-05, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 27605.32484913003, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 51463.01538948367, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 63933.85298341925, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Mallory McMorrow": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 6.493994682483506, "expected_final_county_share_points": 6.493994682483506, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 40.5703515304971, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 40.5703515304971, "required_final_county_share_points": 40.5703515304971, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 40.5703515304971, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 563578.4711985796, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 40.5703515304971, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 40.5703515304971, "required_final_county_share_points": 40.5703515304971, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 40.5703515304971, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 41.09993081549383, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 41.09993081549383, "required_final_county_share_points": 41.09993081549383, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.159018308558073, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999906, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 41.622595621184715, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 41.622595621184715, "required_final_county_share_points": 41.622595621184715, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.213613509684069, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.999999999999993, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -34.076356848013596, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "WELL BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 8.034484082605593e-05, "criticality_score": 2.3577884568003476e-06, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 27565.638656247516, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 51423.32919660115, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 63894.166790536736, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } } } }, { "cid": "fips:26097", "county": "Mackinac", "fips": "26097", "reporting": 93.9, "current_votes": 1446, "current_candidate_votes": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 654, "Haley Stevens": 706, "Mallory McMorrow": 86 }, "current_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 45.22821576763486, "Haley Stevens": 48.82434301521438, "Mallory McMorrow": 5.94744121715076 }, "estimated_remaining_votes": 87.37128851475677, "estimated_final_votes": 1533.3712885147568, "turnout_disagreement_votes": 0.0, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 46.381354188279545, "Haley Stevens": 48.27358844789876, "Mallory McMorrow": 5.34505736382171 }, "remaining_sources": [ { "model": "v3", "remaining_votes": 87.37128851475677, "weight": 0.1342208488636769 }, { "model": "histgeo", "remaining_votes": 87.37128851475677, "weight": 0.05994207394479305 }, { "model": "latent", "remaining_votes": 87.37128851475677, "weight": 0.07672787409296966 }, { "model": "batchbias", "remaining_votes": 87.37128851475677, "weight": 0.045123489075924846 } ], "share_sources": [ { "model": "v0", "weight": 0.03630604611298715, "source": "statewide raw" }, { "model": "v1", "weight": 0.14599140026529184, "source": "county live" }, { "model": "v3", "weight": 0.15004242351696637, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "market", "weight": 0.0786646379365536, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "histgeo", "weight": 0.06573339512824654, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "latent", "weight": 0.08483492578364633, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "batchbias", "weight": 0.04883898267529022, "source": "county remaining" } ], "candidate_benchmarks": { "Abdul El-Sayed": { "opponent": "Haley Stevens", "expected_remaining_share_points": 46.381354188279545, "expected_final_county_share_points": 45.29392143879372, "current_county_share_points": 45.22821576763486, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 45.16770155145009, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 45.16770155145009, "required_final_county_share_points": 45.224767675785785, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 45.16770155145009, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": -26378.55465460591, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": false }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 45.16770155145009, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 45.16770155145009, "required_final_county_share_points": 45.224767675785785, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 45.16770155145009, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 45.81276712987843, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 45.81276712987843, "required_final_county_share_points": 45.26152342515057, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.024044322225107804, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999973, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 46.45846238284563, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 46.45846238284563, "required_final_county_share_points": 45.29831505328536, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.003259695682198218, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.9999999999999996, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": 1.2136526368294582, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "ABOVE", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 7.116884256431714e-05, "criticality_score": 5.864020758875321e-05, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -31066.041039566815, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -4132.311617035968, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 9946.42600676119, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Haley Stevens": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 48.27358844789876, "expected_final_county_share_points": 48.792961094500086, "current_county_share_points": 48.82434301521438, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 49.487241084728225, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 49.487241084728225, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.86211485750802, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 49.487241084728225, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 26473.20959724209, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 49.487241084728225, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 49.487241084728225, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.86211485750802, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 49.487241084728225, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 50.131671521172386, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 50.131671521172386, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.8988344165685, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.07865391656842785, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.999999999999999, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 50.77546136018641, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 50.77546136018641, "required_final_county_share_points": 48.93551747447409, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.10597932088248406, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -1.2136526368294653, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 7.116884256431714e-05, "criticality_score": 5.864020758875286e-05, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 31160.695982202993, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 58094.42540473383, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 72173.16302853101, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Mallory McMorrow": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 5.34505736382171, "expected_final_county_share_points": 5.913117466706195, "current_county_share_points": 5.94744121715076, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 37.243766469578084, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 37.243766469578084, "required_final_county_share_points": 7.730701594831414, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 37.243766469578084, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 636240.23621148, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 37.243766469578084, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 37.243766469578084, "required_final_county_share_points": 7.730701594831414, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 37.243766469578084, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 37.797670391809646, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 37.797670391809646, "required_final_county_share_points": 7.762262965362635, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.159018308558073, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999906, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 38.34629608980335, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 38.34629608980335, "required_final_county_share_points": 7.793523583391063, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.213613509684069, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.999999999999993, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -31.898709105756375, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "WELL BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 7.116884256431714e-05, "criticality_score": 2.2310884847523235e-06, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 31117.767451118918, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 58051.496873649754, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 72130.23449744693, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } } } }, { "cid": "26097", "county": "26097", "fips": null, "reporting": 0.0, "current_votes": 0, "current_candidate_votes": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 0, "Haley Stevens": 0, "Mallory McMorrow": 0 }, "current_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": null, "Haley Stevens": null, "Mallory McMorrow": null }, "estimated_remaining_votes": 85.61068472148054, "estimated_final_votes": 85.61068472148054, "turnout_disagreement_votes": 0.0, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 47.313860940306704, "Haley Stevens": 47.89780070134983, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.78833835834347 }, "remaining_sources": [ { "model": "market", "remaining_votes": 85.61068472148054, "weight": 0.1780093144963334 } ], "share_sources": [ { "model": "v0", "weight": 0.03630604611298715, "source": "statewide raw" }, { "model": "v3", "weight": 0.06301781787712588, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "market", "weight": 0.18729675699179427, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "histgeo", "weight": 0.02760802595386354, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "latent", "weight": 0.03563066882913146, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "batchbias", "weight": 0.020512372723621893, "source": "statewide fallback" } ], "candidate_benchmarks": { "Abdul El-Sayed": { "opponent": "Haley Stevens", "expected_remaining_share_points": 47.313860940306704, "expected_final_county_share_points": 47.31386094030671, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 46.09219368951438, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 46.09219368951438, "required_final_county_share_points": 46.09219368951438, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 46.09219368951438, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": -26921.05714928536, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": false }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 46.09219368951438, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 46.09219368951438, "required_final_county_share_points": 46.09219368951438, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 46.09219368951438, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 46.74162726088431, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 46.74162726088431, "required_final_county_share_points": 46.741627260884314, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.024044322225107804, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999973, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 47.39144898923758, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 47.39144898923758, "required_final_county_share_points": 47.39144898923758, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.003259695682198218, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.9999999999999996, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": 1.221667250792322, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "ABOVE", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 6.973473147002268e-05, "criticality_score": 5.708160828965142e-05, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -31704.94279021693, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -4217.314910470668, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 10150.955251766505, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Haley Stevens": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 47.89780070134983, "expected_final_county_share_points": 47.89780070134984, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 49.119467952142145, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 49.119467952142145, "required_final_county_share_points": 49.119467952142145, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 49.119467952142145, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 27016.268810927017, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 49.119467952142145, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 49.119467952142145, "required_final_county_share_points": 49.119467952142145, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 49.119467952142145, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 49.7685072792353, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 49.7685072792353, "required_final_county_share_points": 49.76850727923531, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.07865391656842785, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.999999999999999, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 50.417146278526594, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 50.417146278526594, "required_final_county_share_points": 50.417146278526594, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.10597932088248406, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -1.221667250792315, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 6.973473147002268e-05, "criticality_score": 5.7081608289651754e-05, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 31800.154451858587, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 59287.782331604845, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 73656.05249384203, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Mallory McMorrow": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 4.78833835834347, "expected_final_county_share_points": 4.78833835834347, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 36.11188614129752, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 36.11188614129752, "required_final_county_share_points": 36.11188614129752, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 36.11188614129752, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 649323.9991241287, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 36.11188614129752, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 36.11188614129752, "required_final_county_share_points": 36.11188614129752, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 36.11188614129752, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 36.70143227595383, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 36.70143227595383, "required_final_county_share_points": 36.70143227595383, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.159018308558073, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999906, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 37.28702714416342, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 37.28702714416342, "required_final_county_share_points": 37.28702714416342, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.213613509684069, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.999999999999993, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -31.323547782954048, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "WELL BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 6.973473147002268e-05, "criticality_score": 2.2262718116487304e-06, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 31757.04498951558, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 59244.67286926184, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 73612.94303149902, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } } } }, { "cid": "26107", "county": "26107", "fips": null, "reporting": 0.0, "current_votes": 0, "current_candidate_votes": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 0, "Haley Stevens": 0, "Mallory McMorrow": 0 }, "current_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": null, "Haley Stevens": null, "Mallory McMorrow": null }, "estimated_remaining_votes": 78.31944933675004, "estimated_final_votes": 78.31944933675004, "turnout_disagreement_votes": 0.0, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 47.0912695449292, "Haley Stevens": 48.78440505337972, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.12432540169107 }, "remaining_sources": [ { "model": "market", "remaining_votes": 78.31944933675004, "weight": 0.1780093144963334 } ], "share_sources": [ { "model": "v0", "weight": 0.03630604611298715, "source": "statewide raw" }, { "model": "v3", "weight": 0.06301781787712588, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "market", "weight": 0.18729675699179427, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "histgeo", "weight": 0.02760802595386354, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "latent", "weight": 0.03563066882913146, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "batchbias", "weight": 0.020512372723621893, "source": "statewide fallback" } ], "candidate_benchmarks": { "Abdul El-Sayed": { "opponent": "Haley Stevens", "expected_remaining_share_points": 47.0912695449292, "expected_final_county_share_points": 47.091269544929204, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 45.86178338426582, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 45.86178338426582, "required_final_county_share_points": 45.86178338426582, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 45.86178338426582, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": -29431.929938600668, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": false }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 45.86178338426582, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 45.86178338426582, "required_final_county_share_points": 45.86178338426582, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 45.86178338426582, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 46.51528291014124, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 46.51528291014124, "required_final_county_share_points": 46.51528291014124, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.024044322225107804, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999973, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 47.1693787381431, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 47.1693787381431, "required_final_county_share_points": 47.16937873814311, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.003259695682198218, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.9999999999999996, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": 1.2294861606633773, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "ABOVE", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 6.379560899608066e-05, "criticality_score": 5.18880252882711e-05, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -34661.17668149422, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -4614.557813732066, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 11091.342282211921, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Haley Stevens": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 48.78440505337972, "expected_final_county_share_points": 48.78440505337972, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 50.01389121404309, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 50.01389121404309, "required_final_county_share_points": 50.01389121404309, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 50.01389121404309, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 29527.80561319898, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 50.01389121404309, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 50.01389121404309, "required_final_county_share_points": 50.01389121404309, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 50.01389121404309, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 50.666788780631386, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 50.666788780631386, "required_final_county_share_points": 50.666788780631386, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.07865391656842785, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.999999999999999, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 51.31907874162016, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 51.31907874162016, "required_final_county_share_points": 51.31907874162016, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.10597932088248406, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -1.2294861606633702, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 6.379560899608066e-05, "criticality_score": 5.18880252882714e-05, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 34757.05235609253, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 64803.67122385468, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 80509.57131979866, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Mallory McMorrow": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 4.12432540169107, "expected_final_county_share_points": 4.1243254016910695, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 33.88012237605316, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 33.88012237605316, "required_final_county_share_points": 33.88012237605316, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 33.88012237605316, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 709772.4220973465, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 33.88012237605316, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 33.88012237605316, "required_final_county_share_points": 33.88012237605316, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 33.88012237605316, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 34.49117028649661, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 34.49117028649661, "required_final_county_share_points": 34.49117028649661, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.159018308558073, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999906, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 35.100161871624735, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 35.100161871624735, "required_final_county_share_points": 35.100161871624735, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.213613509684069, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.999999999999993, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -29.755796974362088, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "WELL BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 6.379560899608066e-05, "criticality_score": 2.1439724518569486e-06, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 34712.392276440834, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 64759.01114420299, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 80464.91124014698, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } } } }, { "cid": "fips:26027", "county": "Cass", "fips": "26027", "reporting": 99.0, "current_votes": 3505, "current_candidate_votes": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 1579, "Haley Stevens": 1592, "Mallory McMorrow": 334 }, "current_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 45.049928673323826, "Haley Stevens": 45.42082738944365, "Mallory McMorrow": 9.529243937232525 }, "estimated_remaining_votes": 77.55888915228525, "estimated_final_votes": 3582.5588891522852, "turnout_disagreement_votes": 0.0, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 46.24712406275712, "Haley Stevens": 45.814655588728456, "Mallory McMorrow": 7.938220348514428 }, "remaining_sources": [ { "model": "v3", "remaining_votes": 77.55888915228525, "weight": 0.1342208488636769 }, { "model": "histgeo", "remaining_votes": 77.55888915228525, "weight": 0.05994207394479305 }, { "model": "latent", "remaining_votes": 77.55888915228525, "weight": 0.07672787409296966 }, { "model": "batchbias", "remaining_votes": 77.55888915228525, "weight": 0.045123489075924846 } ], "share_sources": [ { "model": "v0", "weight": 0.03630604611298715, "source": "statewide raw" }, { "model": "v1", "weight": 0.14599140026529184, "source": "county live" }, { "model": "v3", "weight": 0.15004242351696637, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "market", "weight": 0.0786646379365536, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "histgeo", "weight": 0.06573339512824654, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "latent", "weight": 0.08483492578364633, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "batchbias", "weight": 0.04883898267529022, "source": "county remaining" } ], "candidate_benchmarks": { "Abdul El-Sayed": { "opponent": "Haley Stevens", "expected_remaining_share_points": 46.24712406275712, "expected_final_county_share_points": 45.075846780290284, "current_county_share_points": 45.049928673323826, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 45.06552637128383, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 45.06552637128383, "required_final_county_share_points": 45.05026634819939, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 45.06552637128383, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": -29721.852100193802, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": false }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 45.06552637128383, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 45.06552637128383, "required_final_county_share_points": 45.05026634819939, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 45.06552637128383, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 45.6937409089055, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 45.6937409089055, "required_final_county_share_points": 45.06386657730791, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.024044322225107804, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999973, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 46.32214511278043, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 46.32214511278043, "required_final_county_share_points": 45.07747091250496, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.003259695682198218, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.9999999999999996, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": 1.1815976914732929, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "ABOVE", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 6.31760898273812e-05, "criticality_score": 5.3466666601734084e-05, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -35002.37803120948, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -4661.115155025047, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 11198.800585092264, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Haley Stevens": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 45.814655588728456, "expected_final_county_share_points": 45.429353384018604, "current_county_share_points": 45.42082738944365, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 46.99625328020174, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 46.99625328020174, "required_final_county_share_points": 45.4549338161095, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 46.99625328020174, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 29813.91387984529, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 46.99625328020174, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 46.99625328020174, "required_final_county_share_points": 45.4549338161095, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 46.99625328020174, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 47.624272009941315, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 47.624272009941315, "required_final_county_share_points": 45.46852980616926, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.07865391656842785, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.999999999999999, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 48.25208878681081, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 48.25208878681081, "required_final_county_share_points": 45.482121424147294, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.10597932088248406, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -1.1815976914732857, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 6.31760898273812e-05, "criticality_score": 5.346666660173441e-05, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 35094.43981086097, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 65435.70268704539, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 81295.6184271627, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Mallory McMorrow": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 7.938220348514428, "expected_final_county_share_points": 9.494799835691111, "current_county_share_points": 9.529243937232525, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 42.967592307350436, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 42.967592307350436, "required_final_county_share_points": 10.253151410889473, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 42.967592307350436, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 716736.3860586612, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 42.967592307350436, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 42.967592307350436, "required_final_county_share_points": 10.253151410889473, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 42.967592307350436, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 43.43827742302718, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 43.43827742302718, "required_final_county_share_points": 10.263341282386893, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.159018308558073, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999906, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 43.90090853299885, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 43.90090853299885, "required_final_county_share_points": 10.273356792553479, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.213613509684069, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.999999999999993, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -35.02937195883601, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "WELL BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 6.31760898273812e-05, "criticality_score": 1.8035176280528576e-06, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 35056.56337562075, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 65397.82625180518, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 81257.74199192249, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } } } }, { "cid": "26113", "county": "26113", "fips": null, "reporting": 0.0, "current_votes": 0, "current_candidate_votes": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 0, "Haley Stevens": 0, "Mallory McMorrow": 0 }, "current_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": null, "Haley Stevens": null, "Mallory McMorrow": null }, "estimated_remaining_votes": 70.66382028501641, "estimated_final_votes": 70.66382028501641, "turnout_disagreement_votes": 0.0, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 43.718092967741406, "Haley Stevens": 51.20805675302659, "Mallory McMorrow": 5.073850279232022 }, "remaining_sources": [ { "model": "market", "remaining_votes": 70.66382028501641, "weight": 0.1780093144963334 } ], "share_sources": [ { "model": "v0", "weight": 0.03630604611298715, "source": "statewide raw" }, { "model": "v3", "weight": 0.06301781787712588, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "market", "weight": 0.18729675699179427, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "histgeo", "weight": 0.02760802595386354, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "latent", "weight": 0.03563066882913146, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "batchbias", "weight": 0.020512372723621893, "source": "statewide fallback" } ], "candidate_benchmarks": { "Abdul El-Sayed": { "opponent": "Haley Stevens", "expected_remaining_share_points": 43.718092967741406, "expected_final_county_share_points": 43.718092967741406, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 42.509882863161586, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 42.509882863161586, "required_final_county_share_points": 42.509882863161586, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 42.509882863161586, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": -32629.023045228183, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": false }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 42.509882863161586, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 42.509882863161586, "required_final_county_share_points": 42.509882863161586, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 42.509882863161586, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 43.15160132720069, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 43.15160132720069, "required_final_county_share_points": 43.15160132720069, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.024044322225107804, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999973, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 43.79497877265758, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 43.79497877265758, "required_final_county_share_points": 43.79497877265758, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.003259695682198218, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.9999999999999996, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": 1.2082101045798197, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "ABOVE", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 5.755966732719225e-05, "criticality_score": 4.764044524127683e-05, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -38424.799776482236, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -5122.968165018729, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 12284.489313092865, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Haley Stevens": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 51.20805675302659, "expected_final_county_share_points": 51.20805675302659, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 52.416266857606416, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 52.416266857606416, "required_final_county_share_points": 52.416266857606416, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 52.416266857606416, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 32723.94919494895, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 52.416266857606416, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 52.416266857606416, "required_final_county_share_points": 52.416266857606416, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 52.416266857606416, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 53.05632640895127, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 53.05632640895127, "required_final_county_share_points": 53.05632640895127, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.07865391656842785, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.999999999999999, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 53.69472713754651, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 53.69472713754651, "required_final_county_share_points": 53.69472713754651, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.10597932088248406, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -1.2082101045798268, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 5.755966732719225e-05, "criticality_score": 4.764044524127655e-05, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 38519.725926203006, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 71821.55753766651, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 89229.0150157781, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Mallory McMorrow": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 5.073850279232022, "expected_final_county_share_points": 5.073850279232021, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 35.200272937103406, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 35.200272937103406, "required_final_county_share_points": 35.200272937103406, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 35.200272937103406, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 786668.7726705396, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 35.200272937103406, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 35.200272937103406, "required_final_county_share_points": 35.200272937103406, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 35.200272937103406, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 35.721087669136104, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 35.721087669136104, "required_final_county_share_points": 35.721087669136104, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.159018308558073, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999906, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 36.23686195986374, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 36.23686195986374, "required_final_county_share_points": 36.23686195986374, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.213613509684069, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.999999999999993, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -30.126422657871384, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "WELL BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 5.755966732719225e-05, "criticality_score": 1.9106041225294023e-06, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 38473.59171972921, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 71775.42333119272, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 89182.88080930432, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } } } }, { "cid": "fips:26113", "county": "Missaukee", "fips": "26113", "reporting": 93.37, "current_votes": 943, "current_candidate_votes": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 352, "Haley Stevens": 529, "Mallory McMorrow": 62 }, "current_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 37.32767762460234, "Haley Stevens": 56.09756097560976, "Mallory McMorrow": 6.574761399787911 }, "estimated_remaining_votes": 70.12569231661234, "estimated_final_votes": 1013.1256923166123, "turnout_disagreement_votes": 0.0, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 40.657502642669314, "Haley Stevens": 53.542604317253236, "Mallory McMorrow": 5.799893040077455 }, "remaining_sources": [ { "model": "v3", "remaining_votes": 70.12569231661234, "weight": 0.1342208488636769 }, { "model": "histgeo", "remaining_votes": 70.12569231661234, "weight": 0.05994207394479305 }, { "model": "latent", "remaining_votes": 70.12569231661234, "weight": 0.07672787409296966 }, { "model": "batchbias", "remaining_votes": 70.12569231661234, "weight": 0.045123489075924846 } ], "share_sources": [ { "model": "v0", "weight": 0.03630604611298715, "source": "statewide raw" }, { "model": "v1", "weight": 0.14599140026529184, "source": "county live" }, { "model": "v3", "weight": 0.15004242351696637, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "market", "weight": 0.0786646379365536, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "histgeo", "weight": 0.06573339512824654, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "latent", "weight": 0.08483492578364633, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "batchbias", "weight": 0.04883898267529022, "source": "county remaining" } ], "candidate_benchmarks": { "Abdul El-Sayed": { "opponent": "Haley Stevens", "expected_remaining_share_points": 40.657502642669314, "expected_final_county_share_points": 37.55815868579345, "current_county_share_points": 37.32767762460234, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 39.475348273945855, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 39.475348273945855, "required_final_county_share_points": 37.47633330700725, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 39.475348273945855, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": -32882.80651942168, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": false }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 39.475348273945855, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 39.475348273945855, "required_final_county_share_points": 37.47633330700725, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 39.475348273945855, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 40.10279153864242, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 40.10279153864242, "required_final_county_share_points": 37.51976315353067, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.024044322225107804, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999973, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 40.732849006514385, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 40.732849006514385, "required_final_county_share_points": 37.56337394779722, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.003259695682198218, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.9999999999999996, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": 1.1821543687234595, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "ABOVE", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 5.7121331744487225e-05, "criticality_score": 4.831968925189463e-05, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -38723.05866980786, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -5165.676683051074, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 12375.36150447417, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Haley Stevens": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 53.542604317253236, "expected_final_county_share_points": 55.920714108666225, "current_county_share_points": 56.09756097560976, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 54.724758685976695, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 54.724758685976695, "required_final_county_share_points": 56.00253948745243, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 54.724758685976695, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 32977.006626381604, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 54.724758685976695, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 54.724758685976695, "required_final_county_share_points": 56.00253948745243, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 54.724758685976695, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 55.34959779983686, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 55.34959779983686, "required_final_county_share_points": 56.04578908202716, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.07865391656842785, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.999999999999999, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 55.97184277241885, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 55.97184277241885, "required_final_county_share_points": 56.0888591174865, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.10597932088248406, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -1.1821543687234595, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 5.7121331744487225e-05, "criticality_score": 4.831968925189463e-05, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 38817.25877676779, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 72374.64076352456, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 89915.67895104982, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Mallory McMorrow": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 5.799893040077455, "expected_final_county_share_points": 6.5211272055403215, "current_county_share_points": 6.574761399787911, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 35.35192401567291, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 35.35192401567291, "required_final_county_share_points": 8.566635129425812, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 35.35192401567291, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 792706.1697831858, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 35.35192401567291, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 35.35192401567291, "required_final_county_share_points": 8.566635129425812, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 35.35192401567291, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 35.79984056686932, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 35.79984056686932, "required_final_county_share_points": 8.59763864507143, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.159018308558073, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999906, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 36.24157679608795, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 36.24157679608795, "required_final_county_share_points": 8.628214376325916, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.213613509684069, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.999999999999993, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -29.55203097559545, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "WELL BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 5.7121331744487225e-05, "criticality_score": 1.932907142377421e-06, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 38769.516065490614, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 72326.89805224739, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 89867.93623977265, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } } } }, { "cid": "fips:26107", "county": "Mecosta", "fips": "26107", "reporting": 98.54, "current_votes": 3431, "current_candidate_votes": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 1535, "Haley Stevens": 1742, "Mallory McMorrow": 154 }, "current_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 44.7391431069659, "Haley Stevens": 50.77236957155349, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.488487321480618 }, "estimated_remaining_votes": 69.15789552562957, "estimated_final_votes": 3500.1578955256296, "turnout_disagreement_votes": 1.4210854715202004e-14, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 46.03660360279086, "Haley Stevens": 49.67528155502004, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.288114842189099 }, "remaining_sources": [ { "model": "v3", "remaining_votes": 69.15789552562956, "weight": 0.1342208488636769 }, { "model": "histgeo", "remaining_votes": 69.15789552562956, "weight": 0.05994207394479305 }, { "model": "latent", "remaining_votes": 69.15789552562956, "weight": 0.07672787409296966 }, { "model": "batchbias", "remaining_votes": 69.15789552562956, "weight": 0.045123489075924846 } ], "share_sources": [ { "model": "v0", "weight": 0.03630604611298715, "source": "statewide raw" }, { "model": "v1", "weight": 0.14599140026529184, "source": "county live" }, { "model": "v3", "weight": 0.15004242351696637, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "market", "weight": 0.0786646379365536, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "histgeo", "weight": 0.06573339512824654, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "latent", "weight": 0.08483492578364633, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "batchbias", "weight": 0.04883898267529022, "source": "county remaining" } ], "candidate_benchmarks": { "Abdul El-Sayed": { "opponent": "Haley Stevens", "expected_remaining_share_points": 46.03660360279086, "expected_final_county_share_points": 44.764778989716675, "current_county_share_points": 44.7391431069659, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 44.81124939760961, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 44.81124939760961, "required_final_county_share_points": 44.74056781963999, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 44.81124939760961, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": -33338.15894573573, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": false }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 44.81124939760961, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 44.81124939760961, "required_final_county_share_points": 44.74056781963999, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 44.81124939760961, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 45.462393377679874, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 45.462393377679874, "required_final_county_share_points": 44.75343345275998, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.024044322225107804, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999973, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 46.11449353500543, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 46.11449353500543, "required_final_county_share_points": 44.76631797851528, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.003259695682198218, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.9999999999999996, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": 1.2253542051812545, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "ABOVE", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 5.633300667085539e-05, "criticality_score": 4.597283498327131e-05, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -39260.139686136325, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -5233.155113098833, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 12553.352667440588, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Haley Stevens": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 49.67528155502004, "expected_final_county_share_points": 50.75069274990871, "current_county_share_points": 50.77236957155349, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 50.9006357602013, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 50.9006357602013, "required_final_county_share_points": 50.77490391998539, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 50.9006357602013, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 33433.870830893546, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 50.9006357602013, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 50.9006357602013, "required_final_county_share_points": 50.77490391998539, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 50.9006357602013, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 51.55081922102555, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 51.55081922102555, "required_final_county_share_points": 50.78775057467879, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.07865391656842785, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.999999999999999, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 52.20003784099687, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 52.20003784099687, "required_final_county_share_points": 50.8005781655571, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.10597932088248406, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -1.2253542051812545, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 5.633300667085539e-05, "criticality_score": 4.597283498327131e-05, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 39355.85157129414, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 73382.83614433161, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 91169.34392487103, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Mallory McMorrow": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 4.288114842189099, "expected_final_county_share_points": 4.484528260374612, "current_county_share_points": 4.488487321480618, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 33.977813559867826, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 33.977813559867826, "required_final_county_share_points": 5.0711523908829585, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 33.977813559867826, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 803797.7207472778, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 33.977813559867826, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 33.977813559867826, "required_final_county_share_points": 5.0711523908829585, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 33.977813559867826, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 34.56547966118618, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 34.56547966118618, "required_final_county_share_points": 5.082763795868682, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.159018308558073, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999906, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 35.150318703529805, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 35.150318703529805, "required_final_county_share_points": 5.094319342388859, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.213613509684069, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.999999999999993, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -29.689698717678727, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "WELL BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 5.633300667085539e-05, "criticality_score": 1.8973923314793324e-06, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 39310.464404581304, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 73337.44897761878, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 91123.95675815821, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } } } }, { "cid": "fips:26001", "county": "Alcona", "fips": "26001", "reporting": 96.49, "current_votes": 1237, "current_candidate_votes": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 518, "Haley Stevens": 618, "Mallory McMorrow": 101 }, "current_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 41.875505254648345, "Haley Stevens": 49.95957962813258, "Mallory McMorrow": 8.164915117219078 }, "estimated_remaining_votes": 44.60802981852043, "estimated_final_votes": 1281.6080298185204, "turnout_disagreement_votes": 7.105427357601002e-15, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 43.94145388169189, "Haley Stevens": 49.10657576191287, "Mallory McMorrow": 6.95197035639523 }, "remaining_sources": [ { "model": "v3", "remaining_votes": 44.608029818520436, "weight": 0.1342208488636769 }, { "model": "histgeo", "remaining_votes": 44.608029818520436, "weight": 0.05994207394479305 }, { "model": "latent", "remaining_votes": 44.608029818520436, "weight": 0.07672787409296966 }, { "model": "batchbias", "remaining_votes": 44.608029818520436, "weight": 0.045123489075924846 } ], "share_sources": [ { "model": "v0", "weight": 0.03630604611298715, "source": "statewide raw" }, { "model": "v1", "weight": 0.14599140026529184, "source": "county live" }, { "model": "v3", "weight": 0.15004242351696637, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "market", "weight": 0.0786646379365536, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "histgeo", "weight": 0.06573339512824654, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "latent", "weight": 0.08483492578364633, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "batchbias", "weight": 0.04883898267529022, "source": "county remaining" } ], "candidate_benchmarks": { "Abdul El-Sayed": { "opponent": "Haley Stevens", "expected_remaining_share_points": 43.94145388169189, "expected_final_county_share_points": 41.94741327630122, "current_county_share_points": 41.875505254648345, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 42.75268882707857, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 42.75268882707857, "required_final_county_share_points": 41.906036766658936, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 42.75268882707857, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": -51713.12375166965, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": false }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 42.75268882707857, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 42.75268882707857, "required_final_county_share_points": 41.906036766658936, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 42.75268882707857, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 43.384256852417806, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 43.384256852417806, "required_final_county_share_points": 41.92801931097145, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.024044322225107804, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999973, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 44.017054066842476, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 44.017054066842476, "required_final_county_share_points": 41.950044638804435, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.003259695682198218, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.9999999999999996, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": 1.1887650546133202, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "ABOVE", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 3.63357563477211e-05, "criticality_score": 3.0565969454359796e-05, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -60894.24488648779, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -8140.6340740838605, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 19434.613069909876, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Haley Stevens": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 49.10657576191287, "expected_final_county_share_points": 49.92988972215951, "current_county_share_points": 49.95957962813258, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 50.2953408165262, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 50.2953408165262, "required_final_county_share_points": 49.97126623180179, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 50.2953408165262, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 51806.17178131326, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 50.2953408165262, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 50.2953408165262, "required_final_county_share_points": 49.97126623180179, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 50.2953408165262, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 50.92567698545625, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 50.92567698545625, "required_final_county_share_points": 49.99320589975417, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.07865391656842785, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.999999999999999, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 51.55477865435113, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 51.55477865435113, "required_final_county_share_points": 50.015102599331584, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.10597932088248406, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -1.1887650546133273, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 3.63357563477211e-05, "criticality_score": 3.056596945435961e-05, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 60987.292916131395, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 113740.9037285353, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 141316.15087252908, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Mallory McMorrow": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 6.95197035639523, "expected_final_county_share_points": 8.122697001539272, "current_county_share_points": 8.164915117219078, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 39.6597924080381, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 39.6597924080381, "required_final_county_share_points": 9.26113517251823, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 39.6597924080381, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1246165.1540773183, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 39.6597924080381, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 39.6597924080381, "required_final_county_share_points": 9.26113517251823, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 39.6597924080381, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 40.123334744010954, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 40.123334744010954, "required_final_county_share_points": 9.277269364770563, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.159018308558073, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999906, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 40.57960128626309, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 40.57960128626309, "required_final_county_share_points": 9.293150313585201, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.213613509684069, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.999999999999993, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -32.70782205164287, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "WELL BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 3.63357563477211e-05, "criticality_score": 1.1109194702829807e-06, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 60945.13831072587, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 113698.74912312979, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 141273.99626712356, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } } } }, { "cid": "26001", "county": "26001", "fips": null, "reporting": 0.0, "current_votes": 0, "current_candidate_votes": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 0, "Haley Stevens": 0, "Mallory McMorrow": 0 }, "current_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": null, "Haley Stevens": null, "Mallory McMorrow": null }, "estimated_remaining_votes": 44.41297746692453, "estimated_final_votes": 44.41297746692453, "turnout_disagreement_votes": 0.0, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 45.77032834674376, "Haley Stevens": 48.359122176595065, "Mallory McMorrow": 5.870549476661171 }, "remaining_sources": [ { "model": "market", "remaining_votes": 44.41297746692453, "weight": 0.1780093144963334 } ], "share_sources": [ { "model": "v0", "weight": 0.03630604611298715, "source": "statewide raw" }, { "model": "v3", "weight": 0.06301781787712588, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "market", "weight": 0.18729675699179427, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "histgeo", "weight": 0.02760802595386354, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "latent", "weight": 0.03563066882913146, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "batchbias", "weight": 0.020512372723621893, "source": "statewide fallback" } ], "candidate_benchmarks": { "Abdul El-Sayed": { "opponent": "Haley Stevens", "expected_remaining_share_points": 45.77032834674376, "expected_final_county_share_points": 45.77032834674376, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 44.56407668701315, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 44.56407668701315, "required_final_county_share_points": 44.56407668701315, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 44.56407668701315, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": -51938.60090025977, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": false }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 44.56407668701315, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 44.56407668701315, "required_final_county_share_points": 44.56407668701315, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 44.56407668701315, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 45.20515071393028, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 45.20515071393028, "required_final_county_share_points": 45.20515071393028, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.024044322225107804, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999973, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 45.8469820345517, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 45.8469820345517, "required_final_county_share_points": 45.846982034551694, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.003259695682198218, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.9999999999999996, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": 1.2062516597306114, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "ABOVE", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 3.617687520566053e-05, "criticality_score": 2.9991150614242308e-05, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -61160.04356652592, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -8174.750114699829, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 19521.60165024123, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Haley Stevens": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 48.359122176595065, "expected_final_county_share_points": 48.359122176595065, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 49.56537383632567, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 49.56537383632567, "required_final_county_share_points": 49.565373836325676, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 49.56537383632567, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 52032.73035078311, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 49.56537383632567, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 49.56537383632567, "required_final_county_share_points": 49.565373836325676, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 49.56537383632567, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 50.20568556244268, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 50.20568556244268, "required_final_county_share_points": 50.20568556244268, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.07865391656842785, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.999999999999999, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 50.845229996395126, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 50.845229996395126, "required_final_county_share_points": 50.845229996395126, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.10597932088248406, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -1.2062516597306043, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 3.617687520566053e-05, "criticality_score": 2.9991150614242484e-05, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 61254.17301704926, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 114239.46646887533, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 141935.8182338164, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Mallory McMorrow": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 5.870549476661171, "expected_final_county_share_points": 5.870549476661171, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 38.26983900705061, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 38.26983900705061, "required_final_county_share_points": 38.26983900705061, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 38.26983900705061, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1251636.9344559538, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 38.26983900705061, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 38.26983900705061, "required_final_county_share_points": 38.26983900705061, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 38.26983900705061, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 38.79559940409831, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 38.79559940409831, "required_final_county_share_points": 38.79559940409832, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.159018308558073, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999906, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 39.31519268020871, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 39.31519268020871, "required_final_county_share_points": 39.3151926802087, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.213613509684069, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.999999999999993, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -32.39928953038944, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "WELL BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 3.617687520566053e-05, "criticality_score": 1.1165947071687434e-06, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 61211.684444349325, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 114196.97789617539, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 141893.32966111644, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } } } }, { "cid": "26083", "county": "26083", "fips": null, "reporting": 0.0, "current_votes": 0, "current_candidate_votes": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 0, "Haley Stevens": 0, "Mallory McMorrow": 0 }, "current_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": null, "Haley Stevens": null, "Mallory McMorrow": null }, "estimated_remaining_votes": 35.8563472124265, "estimated_final_votes": 35.8563472124265, "turnout_disagreement_votes": 0.0, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 50.54534280267319, "Haley Stevens": 44.552768807264314, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.901888390062494 }, "remaining_sources": [ { "model": "market", "remaining_votes": 35.8563472124265, "weight": 0.1780093144963334 } ], "share_sources": [ { "model": "v0", "weight": 0.03630604611298715, "source": "statewide raw" }, { "model": "v3", "weight": 0.06301781787712588, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "market", "weight": 0.18729675699179427, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "histgeo", "weight": 0.02760802595386354, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "latent", "weight": 0.03563066882913146, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "batchbias", "weight": 0.020512372723621893, "source": "statewide fallback" } ], "candidate_benchmarks": { "Abdul El-Sayed": { "opponent": "Haley Stevens", "expected_remaining_share_points": 50.54534280267319, "expected_final_county_share_points": 50.54534280267318, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 49.32777143483561, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 49.32777143483561, "required_final_county_share_points": 49.32777143483562, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 49.32777143483561, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": -64339.190017864654, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": false }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 49.32777143483561, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 49.32777143483561, "required_final_county_share_points": 49.32777143483562, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 49.32777143483561, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 49.97556610001704, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 49.97556610001704, "required_final_county_share_points": 49.97556610001704, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.024044322225107804, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999973, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 50.62252480183776, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 50.62252480183776, "required_final_county_share_points": 50.62252480183776, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.003259695682198218, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.9999999999999996, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": 1.2175713678375786, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "ABOVE", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 2.920701723726636e-05, "criticality_score": 2.3987930407018664e-05, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -75761.20472904183, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -10131.690651300216, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 24174.019285211187, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Haley Stevens": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 44.552768807264314, "expected_final_county_share_points": 44.552768807264314, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 45.7703401751019, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 45.7703401751019, "required_final_county_share_points": 45.7703401751019, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 45.7703401751019, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 64434.288129474604, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 45.7703401751019, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 45.7703401751019, "required_final_county_share_points": 45.7703401751019, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 45.7703401751019, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 46.41896598801332, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 46.41896598801332, "required_final_county_share_points": 46.41896598801332, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.07865391656842785, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.999999999999999, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 47.06841809269153, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 47.06841809269153, "required_final_county_share_points": 47.06841809269153, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.10597932088248406, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -1.2175713678375857, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 2.920701723726636e-05, "criticality_score": 2.3987930407018525e-05, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 75856.30284065176, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 141485.81691839336, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 175791.52685490478, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Mallory McMorrow": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 4.901888390062494, "expected_final_county_share_points": 4.901888390062494, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 37.923422838201105, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 37.923422838201105, "required_final_county_share_points": 37.923422838201105, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 37.923422838201105, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1550320.7193042855, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 37.923422838201105, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 37.923422838201105, "required_final_county_share_points": 37.923422838201105, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 37.923422838201105, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 38.56129569024896, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 38.56129569024896, "required_final_county_share_points": 38.56129569024896, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.159018308558073, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999906, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 39.19550814893862, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 39.19550814893862, "required_final_county_share_points": 39.19550814893862, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.213613509684069, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.999999999999993, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -33.02153444813861, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "WELL BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 2.920701723726636e-05, "criticality_score": 8.844839504092982e-07, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 75816.65196023455, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 141446.16603797616, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 175751.87597448757, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } } } }, { "cid": "fips:26083", "county": "Keweenaw", "fips": "26083", "reporting": 92.62, "current_votes": 414, "current_candidate_votes": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 216, "Haley Stevens": 173, "Mallory McMorrow": 25 }, "current_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 52.17391304347826, "Haley Stevens": 41.78743961352657, "Mallory McMorrow": 6.038647342995169 }, "estimated_remaining_votes": 35.70628898706627, "estimated_final_votes": 449.7062889870663, "turnout_disagreement_votes": 0.0, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 51.414155854246644, "Haley Stevens": 43.17512027896332, "Mallory McMorrow": 5.410723866790038 }, "remaining_sources": [ { "model": "v3", "remaining_votes": 35.70628898706627, "weight": 0.1342208488636769 }, { "model": "histgeo", "remaining_votes": 35.70628898706627, "weight": 0.05994207394479305 }, { "model": "latent", "remaining_votes": 35.70628898706627, "weight": 0.07672787409296966 }, { "model": "batchbias", "remaining_votes": 35.70628898706627, "weight": 0.045123489075924846 } ], "share_sources": [ { "model": "v0", "weight": 0.03630604611298715, "source": "statewide raw" }, { "model": "v1", "weight": 0.14599140026529184, "source": "county live" }, { "model": "v3", "weight": 0.15004242351696637, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "market", "weight": 0.0786646379365536, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "histgeo", "weight": 0.06573339512824654, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "latent", "weight": 0.08483492578364633, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "batchbias", "weight": 0.04883898267529022, "source": "county remaining" } ], "candidate_benchmarks": { "Abdul El-Sayed": { "opponent": "Haley Stevens", "expected_remaining_share_points": 51.414155854246644, "expected_final_county_share_points": 52.11358898214523, "current_county_share_points": 52.17391304347826, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 50.206748338556984, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 50.206748338556984, "required_final_county_share_points": 52.01772187346529, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 50.206748338556984, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": -64608.92365871508, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": false }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 50.206748338556984, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 50.206748338556984, "required_final_county_share_points": 52.01772187346529, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 50.206748338556984, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 50.84932166421034, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 50.84932166421034, "required_final_county_share_points": 52.06874163774932, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.024044322225107804, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999973, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 51.49064316406017, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 51.49064316406017, "required_final_county_share_points": 52.119662008151145, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.003259695682198218, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.9999999999999996, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": 1.2074075156896598, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "ABOVE", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 2.908478634886257e-05, "criticality_score": 2.4088624570346173e-05, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -76078.94020111645, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -10173.61341101689, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 24276.268717532173, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Haley Stevens": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 43.17512027896332, "expected_final_county_share_points": 41.89762025381394, "current_county_share_points": 41.78743961352657, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 44.38252779465299, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 44.38252779465299, "required_final_county_share_points": 41.993487362493866, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 44.38252779465299, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 64703.51293484829, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 44.38252779465299, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 44.38252779465299, "required_final_county_share_points": 41.993487362493866, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 44.38252779465299, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 45.02635022354158, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 45.02635022354158, "required_final_county_share_points": 42.04460630449049, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.07865391656842785, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.999999999999999, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 45.67141898629111, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 45.67141898629111, "required_final_county_share_points": 42.095824204313836, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.10597932088248406, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -1.2074075156896669, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 2.908478634886257e-05, "criticality_score": 2.408862457034603e-05, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 76173.52947724966, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 142078.8562673492, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 176528.73839589828, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Mallory McMorrow": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 5.410723866790038, "expected_final_county_share_points": 5.988790764040837, "current_county_share_points": 6.038647342995169, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 39.854050999225315, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 39.854050999225315, "required_final_county_share_points": 8.723561040518259, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 39.854050999225315, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1556836.5409014327, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 39.854050999225315, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 39.854050999225315, "required_final_county_share_points": 8.723561040518259, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 39.854050999225315, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 40.486918980266964, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 40.486918980266964, "required_final_county_share_points": 8.773810208864633, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.159018308558073, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999906, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 41.114995823411356, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 41.114995823411356, "required_final_county_share_points": 8.823678965020816, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.213613509684069, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.999999999999993, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -34.44332713243528, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "WELL BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 2.908478634886257e-05, "criticality_score": 8.444244145471483e-07, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 76135.76508083749, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 142041.09187093703, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 176490.9739994861, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } } } }, { "cid": "26133", "county": "26133", "fips": null, "reporting": 0.0, "current_votes": 0, "current_candidate_votes": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 0, "Haley Stevens": 0, "Mallory McMorrow": 0 }, "current_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": null, "Haley Stevens": null, "Mallory McMorrow": null }, "estimated_remaining_votes": 20.765896460573458, "estimated_final_votes": 20.765896460573458, "turnout_disagreement_votes": 0.0, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 45.09658156322723, "Haley Stevens": 49.80898453019564, "Mallory McMorrow": 5.094433906577141 }, "remaining_sources": [ { "model": "market", "remaining_votes": 20.765896460573458, "weight": 0.1780093144963334 } ], "share_sources": [ { "model": "v0", "weight": 0.03630604611298715, "source": "statewide raw" }, { "model": "v3", "weight": 0.06301781787712588, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "market", "weight": 0.18729675699179427, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "histgeo", "weight": 0.02760802595386354, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "latent", "weight": 0.03563066882913146, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "batchbias", "weight": 0.020512372723621893, "source": "statewide fallback" } ], "candidate_benchmarks": { "Abdul El-Sayed": { "opponent": "Haley Stevens", "expected_remaining_share_points": 45.09658156322723, "expected_final_county_share_points": 45.09658156322723, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 43.88315370763939, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 43.88315370763939, "required_final_county_share_points": 43.88315370763939, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 43.88315370763939, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": -111136.26813302236, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": false }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 43.88315370763939, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 43.88315370763939, "required_final_county_share_points": 43.88315370763939, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 43.88315370763939, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 44.52786996707626, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 44.52786996707626, "required_final_county_share_points": 44.52786996707626, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.024044322225107804, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999973, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 45.173737872771454, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 45.173737872771454, "required_final_county_share_points": 45.173737872771454, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.003259695682198218, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.9999999999999996, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": 1.2134278555878453, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "ABOVE", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 1.691499394174383e-05, "criticality_score": 1.393984311786658e-05, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -130858.59151679727, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -17536.508426272667, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 41698.95242598537, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Haley Stevens": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 49.80898453019564, "expected_final_county_share_points": 49.80898453019564, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 51.022412385783475, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 51.022412385783475, "required_final_county_share_points": 51.022412385783475, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 51.022412385783475, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 111231.17369911578, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 51.022412385783475, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 51.022412385783475, "required_final_county_share_points": 51.022412385783475, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 51.022412385783475, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 51.665973699583475, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 51.665973699583475, "required_final_county_share_points": 51.665973699583475, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.07865391656842785, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.999999999999999, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 52.3083767917272, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 52.3083767917272, "required_final_county_share_points": 52.3083767917272, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.10597932088248406, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -1.2134278555878382, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 1.691499394174383e-05, "criticality_score": 1.3939843117866663e-05, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 130953.4970828907, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 244275.58017341525, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 303511.04102567333, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Mallory McMorrow": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 5.094433906577141, "expected_final_county_share_points": 5.09443390657714, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 35.93569516939837, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 35.93569516939837, "required_final_county_share_points": 35.93569516939837, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 35.93569516939837, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 2676925.9942237562, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 35.93569516939837, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 35.93569516939837, "required_final_county_share_points": 35.93569516939837, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 35.93569516939837, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 36.47796503384312, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 36.47796503384312, "required_final_county_share_points": 36.47796503384312, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.159018308558073, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999906, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 37.015296823645016, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 37.015296823645016, "required_final_county_share_points": 37.015296823645016, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.213613509684069, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.999999999999993, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -30.84126126282123, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "WELL BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 1.691499394174383e-05, "criticality_score": 5.484533786604457e-07, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 130908.78253226707, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 244230.86562279164, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 303466.3264750497, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } } } }, { "cid": "fips:26133", "county": "Osceola", "fips": "26133", "reporting": 99.0, "current_votes": 1571, "current_candidate_votes": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 634, "Haley Stevens": 833, "Mallory McMorrow": 104 }, "current_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 40.3564608529599, "Haley Stevens": 53.02355187778485, "Mallory McMorrow": 6.619987269255251 }, "estimated_remaining_votes": 19.133493263277842, "estimated_final_votes": 1590.1334932632778, "turnout_disagreement_votes": 0.0, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 42.84098377218572, "Haley Stevens": 51.316005385995645, "Mallory McMorrow": 5.8430108418186455 }, "remaining_sources": [ { "model": "v3", "remaining_votes": 19.133493263277842, "weight": 0.1342208488636769 }, { "model": "histgeo", "remaining_votes": 19.133493263277842, "weight": 0.05994207394479305 }, { "model": "latent", "remaining_votes": 19.133493263277842, "weight": 0.07672787409296966 }, { "model": "batchbias", "remaining_votes": 19.133493263277842, "weight": 0.045123489075924846 } ], "share_sources": [ { "model": "v0", "weight": 0.03630604611298715, "source": "statewide raw" }, { "model": "v1", "weight": 0.14599140026529184, "source": "county live" }, { "model": "v3", "weight": 0.15004242351696637, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "market", "weight": 0.0786646379365536, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "histgeo", "weight": 0.06573339512824654, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "latent", "weight": 0.08483492578364633, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "batchbias", "weight": 0.04883898267529022, "source": "county remaining" } ], "candidate_benchmarks": { "Abdul El-Sayed": { "opponent": "Haley Stevens", "expected_remaining_share_points": 42.84098377218572, "expected_final_county_share_points": 40.38635620623612, "current_county_share_points": 40.3564608529599, "recent_batch_votes": 228, "recent_batch_share_points": 39.473684210526315, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 41.645166002780186, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 41.645166002780186, "required_final_county_share_points": 40.37196736949257, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 41.645166002780186, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": -120624.1316510417, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": false }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 41.645166002780186, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 41.645166002780186, "required_final_county_share_points": 40.37196736949257, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 41.645166002780186, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 42.28021779737176, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 42.28021779737176, "required_final_county_share_points": 40.37960871487969, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.024044322225107804, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999973, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 42.917104004229515, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 42.917104004229515, "required_final_county_share_points": 40.38727213307697, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.003259695682198218, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.9999999999999996, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": 1.1958177694055365, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -2.1714817922538714, "status": "ABOVE", "recent_status": "BELOW", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 1.5585309463871013e-05, "criticality_score": 1.3033181026920818e-05, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -142029.09517306875, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -19038.76550489435, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 45250.459150865805, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Haley Stevens": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 51.316005385995645, "expected_final_county_share_points": 53.003005596962645, "current_county_share_points": 53.02355187778485, "recent_batch_votes": 228, "recent_batch_share_points": 53.94736842105263, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 52.51182315540118, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 52.51182315540118, "required_final_county_share_points": 53.0173944337062, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 52.51182315540118, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 120718.28864019987, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 52.51182315540118, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 52.51182315540118, "required_final_county_share_points": 53.0173944337062, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 52.51182315540118, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 53.14504218080076, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 53.14504218080076, "required_final_county_share_points": 53.02501372605366, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.07865391656842785, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.999999999999999, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 53.776430095742114, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 53.776430095742114, "required_final_county_share_points": 53.032610985320396, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.10597932088248406, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -1.1958177694055365, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": 1.4355452656514487, "status": "BELOW", "recent_status": "ABOVE", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 1.5585309463871013e-05, "criticality_score": 1.3033181026920818e-05, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 142123.25216222694, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 265113.5818304013, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 329402.8064861615, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Mallory McMorrow": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 5.8430108418186455, "expected_final_county_share_points": 6.610638196801229, "current_county_share_points": 6.619987269255251, "recent_batch_votes": 228, "recent_batch_share_points": 6.578947368421052, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 36.643946502032115, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 36.643946502032115, "required_final_county_share_points": 6.9812545616876305, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 36.643946502032115, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 2905312.3374015074, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 36.643946502032115, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 36.643946502032115, "required_final_county_share_points": 6.9812545616876305, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 36.643946502032115, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 37.12449412248782, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 37.12449412248782, "required_final_county_share_points": 6.9870368150000886, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.159018308558073, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999906, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 37.598823834433134, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 37.598823834433134, "required_final_county_share_points": 6.99274425049939, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.213613509684069, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.999999999999993, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -30.80093566021347, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -30.064999133611064, "status": "WELL BELOW", "recent_status": "WELL BELOW", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 1.5585309463871013e-05, "criticality_score": 5.060011694385974e-07, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 142077.77916768275, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 265068.1088358571, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 329357.3334916173, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } } } }, { "cid": "26095", "county": "26095", "fips": null, "reporting": 0.0, "current_votes": 0, "current_candidate_votes": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 0, "Haley Stevens": 0, "Mallory McMorrow": 0 }, "current_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": null, "Haley Stevens": null, "Mallory McMorrow": null }, "estimated_remaining_votes": 6.349298818934301, "estimated_final_votes": 6.349298818934301, "turnout_disagreement_votes": 0.0, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 46.186790528506585, "Haley Stevens": 48.15331330191162, "Mallory McMorrow": 5.659896169581791 }, "remaining_sources": [ { "model": "market", "remaining_votes": 6.349298818934301, "weight": 0.1780093144963334 } ], "share_sources": [ { "model": "v0", "weight": 0.03630604611298715, "source": "statewide raw" }, { "model": "v3", "weight": 0.06301781787712588, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "market", "weight": 0.18729675699179427, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "histgeo", "weight": 0.02760802595386354, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "latent", "weight": 0.03563066882913146, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "batchbias", "weight": 0.020512372723621893, "source": "statewide fallback" } ], "candidate_benchmarks": { "Abdul El-Sayed": { "opponent": "Haley Stevens", "expected_remaining_share_points": 46.186790528506585, "expected_final_county_share_points": 46.186790528506585, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 44.9772434252879, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 44.9772434252879, "required_final_county_share_points": 44.9772434252879, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 44.9772434252879, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": -363581.4788539525, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": false }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 44.9772434252879, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 44.9772434252879, "required_final_county_share_points": 44.9772434252879, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 44.9772434252879, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 45.620120281701126, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 45.620120281701126, "required_final_county_share_points": 45.62012028170113, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.024044322225107804, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999973, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 46.26363967307476, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 46.26363967307476, "required_final_county_share_points": 46.26363967307476, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.003259695682198218, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.9999999999999996, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": 1.2095471032186822, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "ABOVE", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 5.171862012338527e-06, "criticality_score": 4.275866560777891e-06, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -428084.9361692844, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -57455.87754997135, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 136278.49878527338, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Haley Stevens": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 48.15331330191162, "expected_final_county_share_points": 48.15331330191162, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 49.362860405130284, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 49.362860405130284, "required_final_county_share_points": 49.362860405130284, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 49.362860405130284, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 363675.8189577829, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 49.362860405130284, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 49.362860405130284, "required_final_county_share_points": 49.362860405130284, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 49.362860405130284, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 50.00508932225468, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 50.00508932225468, "required_final_county_share_points": 50.00508932225468, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.07865391656842785, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.999999999999999, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 50.6466649081806, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 50.6466649081806, "required_final_county_share_points": 50.6466649081806, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.10597932088248406, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -1.2095471032186609, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 5.171862012338527e-06, "criticality_score": 4.2758665607779666e-06, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 428179.27627311484, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 798808.3348924279, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 992542.7112276726, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Mallory McMorrow": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 5.659896169581791, "expected_final_county_share_points": 5.659896169581791, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 37.96374249047685, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 37.96374249047685, "required_final_county_share_points": 37.96374249047685, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 37.96374249047685, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 8755092.453481896, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 37.96374249047685, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 37.96374249047685, "required_final_county_share_points": 37.96374249047685, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 37.96374249047685, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 38.50336886832389, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 38.50336886832389, "required_final_county_share_points": 38.50336886832389, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.159018308558073, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999906, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 39.03716360335, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 39.03716360335, "required_final_county_share_points": 39.03716360335, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.213613509684069, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.999999999999993, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -32.303846320895055, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "WELL BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 5.171862012338527e-06, "criticality_score": 1.60100501994811e-07, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 428136.7828559825, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 798765.8414752955, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 992500.2178105402, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } } } }, { "cid": "fips:26135", "county": "Oscoda", "fips": "26135", "reporting": 99.0, "current_votes": 1082, "current_candidate_votes": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 412, "Haley Stevens": 631, "Mallory McMorrow": 39 }, "current_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 38.07763401109057, "Haley Stevens": 58.317929759704256, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.6044362292051755 }, "estimated_remaining_votes": 6.011111111111064, "estimated_final_votes": 1088.0111111111112, "turnout_disagreement_votes": 6.011111111111064, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 41.195319576083484, "Haley Stevens": 55.15509481308697, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.6495856108295506 }, "remaining_sources": [ { "model": "v3", "remaining_votes": 0.0, "weight": 0.1342208488636769 }, { "model": "histgeo", "remaining_votes": 0.0, "weight": 0.05994207394479305 }, { "model": "latent", "remaining_votes": 0.0, "weight": 0.07672787409296966 }, { "model": "batchbias", "remaining_votes": 0.0, "weight": 0.045123489075924846 } ], "share_sources": [ { "model": "v0", "weight": 0.03630604611298715, "source": "statewide raw" }, { "model": "v1", "weight": 0.14599140026529184, "source": "county live" }, { "model": "v3", "weight": 0.15004242351696637, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "market", "weight": 0.0786646379365536, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "histgeo", "weight": 0.06573339512824654, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "latent", "weight": 0.08483492578364633, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "batchbias", "weight": 0.04883898267529022, "source": "county remaining" } ], "candidate_benchmarks": { "Abdul El-Sayed": { "opponent": "Haley Stevens", "expected_remaining_share_points": 41.195319576083484, "expected_final_county_share_points": 38.0948587932176, "current_county_share_points": 38.07763401109057, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 39.989241721015205, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 39.989241721015205, "required_final_county_share_points": 38.08819537965369, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 39.989241721015205, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": -384044.31987589976, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": false }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 39.989241721015205, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 39.989241721015205, "required_final_county_share_points": 38.08819537965369, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 39.989241721015205, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 40.62932044253913, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 40.62932044253913, "required_final_county_share_points": 38.09173172618145, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.024044322225107804, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999973, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 41.27220768234806, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 41.27220768234806, "required_final_county_share_points": 38.095283589384806, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.003259695682198218, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.9999999999999996, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": 1.2060778550682798, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "ABOVE", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 4.896389049258738e-06, "criticality_score": 4.059762003491506e-06, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -452176.7695643425, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -60695.96000077151, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 143937.9960375126, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Haley Stevens": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 55.15509481308697, "expected_final_county_share_points": 58.30045553347984, "current_county_share_points": 58.317929759704256, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 56.361172668155255, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 56.361172668155255, "required_final_county_share_points": 58.307118947043755, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 56.361172668155255, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 384140.6702902889, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 56.361172668155255, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 56.361172668155255, "required_final_county_share_points": 58.307118947043755, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 56.361172668155255, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 56.998454928708355, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 56.998454928708355, "required_final_county_share_points": 58.310639843510906, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.07865391656842785, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.999999999999999, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 57.63295272454078, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 57.63295272454078, "required_final_county_share_points": 58.314145356195056, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.10597932088248406, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -1.206077855068287, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 4.896389049258738e-06, "criticality_score": 4.059762003491482e-06, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 452273.1199787317, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 843753.9295423025, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1048387.8855805867, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Mallory McMorrow": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 3.6495856108295506, "expected_final_county_share_points": 3.6046856733025474, "current_county_share_points": 3.6044362292051755, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 29.78078663836441, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 29.78078663836441, "required_final_county_share_points": 3.749056949697767, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 29.78078663836441, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 9247655.408247983, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 29.78078663836441, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 29.78078663836441, "required_final_county_share_points": 3.749056949697767, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 29.78078663836441, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 30.31375848753169, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 30.31375848753169, "required_final_county_share_points": 3.7520015455495193, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.159018308558073, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999906, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 30.844791877623084, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 30.844791877623084, "required_final_county_share_points": 3.754935431682621, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.213613509684069, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.999999999999993, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -26.13120102753486, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "WELL BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 4.896389049258738e-06, "criticality_score": 1.8737711458801052e-07, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 452221.6144695294, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 843702.4240331003, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1048336.3800713845, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } } } }, { "cid": "fips:26095", "county": "Luce", "fips": "26095", "reporting": 99.0, "current_votes": 407, "current_candidate_votes": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 174, "Haley Stevens": 201, "Mallory McMorrow": 32 }, "current_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 42.75184275184275, "Haley Stevens": 49.385749385749385, "Mallory McMorrow": 7.862407862407863 }, "estimated_remaining_votes": 5.603236249659915, "estimated_final_votes": 412.6032362496599, "turnout_disagreement_votes": 0.0, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 44.58543150399778, "Haley Stevens": 48.68284182359973, "Mallory McMorrow": 6.731726672402479 }, "remaining_sources": [ { "model": "v3", "remaining_votes": 5.603236249659915, "weight": 0.1342208488636769 }, { "model": "histgeo", "remaining_votes": 5.603236249659915, "weight": 0.05994207394479305 }, { "model": "latent", "remaining_votes": 5.603236249659915, "weight": 0.07672787409296966 }, { "model": "batchbias", "remaining_votes": 5.603236249659915, "weight": 0.045123489075924846 } ], "share_sources": [ { "model": "v0", "weight": 0.03630604611298715, "source": "statewide raw" }, { "model": "v1", "weight": 0.14599140026529184, "source": "county live" }, { "model": "v3", "weight": 0.15004242351696637, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "market", "weight": 0.0786646379365536, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "histgeo", "weight": 0.06573339512824654, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "latent", "weight": 0.08483492578364633, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "batchbias", "weight": 0.04883898267529022, "source": "county remaining" } ], "candidate_benchmarks": { "Abdul El-Sayed": { "opponent": "Haley Stevens", "expected_remaining_share_points": 44.58543150399778, "expected_final_county_share_points": 42.77674326172829, "current_county_share_points": 42.75184275184275, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 43.39212226693977, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 43.39212226693977, "required_final_county_share_points": 42.76053787847703, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 43.39212226693977, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": -411999.56283164845, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": false }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 43.39212226693977, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 43.39212226693977, "required_final_county_share_points": 42.76053787847703, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 43.39212226693977, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 44.02619273018236, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 44.02619273018236, "required_final_county_share_points": 42.76914868491853, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.024044322225107804, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999973, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 44.66129672533574, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 44.66129672533574, "required_final_county_share_points": 42.77777352693454, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.003259695682198218, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.9999999999999996, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": 1.1933092370580098, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "ABOVE", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 4.564151968931638e-06, "criticality_score": 3.824785585490077e-06, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -485091.5595102238, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": -65113.793215403726, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 0.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": true, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": false }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 154416.02706069147, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Haley Stevens": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 48.68284182359973, "expected_final_county_share_points": 49.376203757440216, "current_county_share_points": 49.385749385749385, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 49.87615106065774, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 49.87615106065774, "required_final_county_share_points": 49.39240914069149, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 49.87615106065774, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 412092.831104976, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 49.87615106065774, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 49.87615106065774, "required_final_county_share_points": 49.39240914069149, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 49.87615106065774, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 50.50918423975368, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 50.50918423975368, "required_final_county_share_points": 49.40100586060233, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.07865391656842785, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.999999999999999, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 51.14117640413849, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 51.14117640413849, "required_final_county_share_points": 49.409588443320715, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.10597932088248406, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -1.1933092370580098, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 4.564151968931638e-06, "criticality_score": 3.824785585490077e-06, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 485184.8277835514, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 905162.5940783714, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1124692.4143544668, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } }, "Mallory McMorrow": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 6.731726672402479, "expected_final_county_share_points": 7.847052980831477, "current_county_share_points": 7.862407862407863, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 39.57202357551705, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 39.57202357551705, "required_final_county_share_points": 8.293030922569635, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 39.57202357551705, "p90": 100.0 } }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": 9920820.304696234, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": true }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 39.57202357551705, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 39.57202357551705, "required_final_county_share_points": 8.293030922569635, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing", "tie_benchmark_likely_range_points": { "p10": 0.0, "central": 39.57202357551705, "p90": 100.0 } }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 40.05181387083032, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 40.05181387083032, "required_final_county_share_points": 8.299546572808762, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.159018308558073, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999906, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 40.5244778505859, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 40.5244778505859, "required_final_county_share_points": 8.305965446226594, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.213613509684069, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.999999999999993, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -32.84029690311457, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "WELL BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 4.564151968931638e-06, "criticality_score": 1.3898022854046652e-07, "approx_probability_benchmarks": { "50_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 485142.8766684002, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "80_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 905120.6429632202, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true }, "90_percent_win": { "required_remaining_share_points": 1124650.4632393157, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 100.0, "feasible": false, "already_above_target_without_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_reach_target": true } } } } }, { "cid": "26135", "county": "26135", "fips": null, "reporting": 0.0, "current_votes": 0, "current_candidate_votes": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 0, "Haley Stevens": 0, "Mallory McMorrow": 0 }, "current_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": null, "Haley Stevens": null, "Mallory McMorrow": null }, "estimated_remaining_votes": 0.0, "estimated_final_votes": 0.0, "turnout_disagreement_votes": 0.0, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 44.05942024273639, "Haley Stevens": 52.2186120869277, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.721967670335919 }, "remaining_sources": [ { "model": "market", "remaining_votes": 0.0, "weight": 0.1780093144963334 } ], "share_sources": [ { "model": "v0", "weight": 0.03630604611298715, "source": "statewide raw" }, { "model": "v3", "weight": 0.06301781787712588, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "market", "weight": 0.18729675699179427, "source": "county remaining" }, { "model": "histgeo", "weight": 0.02760802595386354, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "latent", "weight": 0.03563066882913146, "source": "statewide fallback" }, { "model": "batchbias", "weight": 0.020512372723621893, "source": "statewide fallback" } ], "candidate_benchmarks": { "Abdul El-Sayed": { "opponent": "Haley Stevens", "expected_remaining_share_points": 44.05942024273639, "expected_final_county_share_points": 0.0, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 42.83536582782532, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 42.83536582782532, "required_final_county_share_points": 0.0, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": null, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": false }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 42.83536582782532, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 42.83536582782532, "required_final_county_share_points": 0.0, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.051345557525586866, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.8725610749540114e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 43.48545408349514, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 43.48545408349514, "required_final_county_share_points": 0.0, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": -0.024044322225107804, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999973, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 44.13732671870033, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 44.13732671870033, "required_final_county_share_points": 0.0, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.003259695682198218, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.9999999999999996, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": 1.2240544149110661, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "ABOVE", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.0, "criticality_score": 0.0 }, "Haley Stevens": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 52.2186120869277, "expected_final_county_share_points": 0.0, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 53.44266650183875, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 53.44266650183875, "required_final_county_share_points": 0.0, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": null, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": false }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 53.44266650183875, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 53.44266650183875, "required_final_county_share_points": 0.0, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.05134555752558681, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -1.5110243198709864e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 54.09097127374333, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 54.09097127374333, "required_final_county_share_points": 0.0, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.07865391656842785, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.999999999999999, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 54.73749347663722, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 54.73749347663722, "required_final_county_share_points": 0.0, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 0.10597932088248406, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -1.224054414911052, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.0, "criticality_score": 0.0 }, "Mallory McMorrow": { "opponent": "Abdul El-Sayed", "expected_remaining_share_points": 3.721967670335919, "expected_final_county_share_points": 0.0, "current_county_share_points": null, "recent_batch_votes": 0, "recent_batch_share_points": null, "tie_benchmark": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 31.219860722705857, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 31.219860722705857, "required_final_county_share_points": 0.0, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "marginal_single_county_break_even": { "required_remaining_share_points": null, "feasible": false, "already_ahead_without_this_county": false, "county_alone_cannot_erase_deficit": false }, "target_benchmarks": { "statewide_plus_0": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 0.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 31.219860722705857, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 31.219860722705857, "required_final_county_share_points": 0.0, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.1052587984227955, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": -3.1346569661788584e-15, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_1": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 1.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 31.796703674934328, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 31.796703674934328, "required_final_county_share_points": 0.0, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.159018308558073, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 0.9999999999999906, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" }, "statewide_plus_2": { "target_statewide_margin_points": 2.0, "required_remaining_share_points": 32.37210310041463, "required_remaining_share_clamped_points": 32.37210310041463, "required_final_county_share_points": 0.0, "feasible": true, "distributed_path_log_odds_swing": 3.213613509684069, "distributed_path_achieved_statewide_margin_points": 1.999999999999993, "method": "distributed_common_log_odds_swing" } }, "expected_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": -27.49789305236994, "recent_excess_vs_win_benchmark_points": null, "status": "WELL BELOW", "recent_status": "NO BENCHMARK", "statewide_margin_points_per_county_share_point": 0.0, "criticality_score": 0.0 } } } ], "method_note": "A county's headline win benchmark is a distributed statewide path: V6 solves the common candidate-vs-opponent log-odds swing across all remaining counties required for a statewide tie, then translates that path into a target share for each county. A separate single-county break-even diagnostic is retained for leverage analysis. All benchmarks recalculate after every dump.", "monte_carlo_benchmark_context": { "reference_candidate": "Abdul El-Sayed", "signed_margin_p10": -0.7209907602907051, "signed_margin_median": 2.2142350911356914, "signed_margin_p90": 5.11662886049802, "approx_margin_sigma_points": 2.277559396647456, "note": "50/80/90% county probability benchmarks use a normal approximation to the signed statewide Monte Carlo margin distribution. They are scenario guides, while the tie benchmark is exact conditional on the deterministic expectations elsewhere." } }, "benchmark_signal": { "available": true, "favored_candidate": "Abdul El-Sayed", "least_favored_candidate": "Mallory McMorrow", "evidence": 0.6671350391989715, "favored_signal_score": 0.03915837526743363, "favored_weighted_excess_points": 0.6016278877844345, "favored_breadth_balance": -0.23076923076923078, "candidates": { "Abdul El-Sayed": { "weighted_excess_points": 0.6016278877844345, "above_benchmark_counties": 18, "below_benchmark_counties": 30, "on_benchmark_counties": 4, "unique_counties": 37, "unique_markets": 7, "votes_scored": 37949.0, "breadth_balance": -0.23076923076923078, "evidence": 0.6671350391989715, "signal_score": 0.03915837526743363 }, "Haley Stevens": { "weighted_excess_points": -0.8565954088812535, "above_benchmark_counties": 28, "below_benchmark_counties": 18, "on_benchmark_counties": 6, "unique_counties": 37, "unique_markets": 7, "votes_scored": 37949.0, "breadth_balance": 0.19230769230769232, "evidence": 0.6671350391989715, "signal_score": -0.08767358497472703 }, "Mallory McMorrow": { "weighted_excess_points": -29.590177532489776, "above_benchmark_counties": 0, "below_benchmark_counties": 52, "on_benchmark_counties": 0, "unique_counties": 37, "unique_markets": 7, "votes_scored": 37949.0, "breadth_balance": -1.0, "evidence": 0.6671350391989715, "signal_score": -0.667135039155625 } }, "intervals": [ { "from_snapshot": 44, "to_snapshot": 45, "new_votes": 10283, "changed_counties": 13, "benchmark_observations_scored": 39 }, { "from_snapshot": 45, "to_snapshot": 46, "new_votes": 8299, "changed_counties": 14, "benchmark_observations_scored": 42 }, { "from_snapshot": 46, "to_snapshot": 47, "new_votes": 12360, "changed_counties": 12, "benchmark_observations_scored": 36 }, { "from_snapshot": 47, "to_snapshot": 48, "new_votes": 7007, "changed_counties": 13, "benchmark_observations_scored": 39 } ], "method_note": "V6 rebuilds county tie benchmarks and the preliminary expert gate exactly as they existed at each prior snapshot, then grades only later-arriving vote. Broad, repeated benchmark beats across independent counties are stronger evidence than one friendly dump." }, "monte_carlo": { "available": true, "experimental": true, "simulations": 10000, "seed": 5562021600609418105, "estimated_counted_fraction": 0.37689032225811514, "estimated_remaining_votes": 939790.5752918535, "completion_referee_evidence": 0.8985538953384007, "path_referee_evidence": 0.576430440892034, "path_referee_best_model": "latent", "deterministic_target_share_points": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 49.23144172171963, "Haley Stevens": 47.0384467604806, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.7301115177997684 }, "centering": { "available": true, "target": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 0.49231441721719627, "Haley Stevens": 0.47038446760480607, "Mallory McMorrow": 0.03730111517799768 }, "baseline_center": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 0.4923144171049121, "Haley Stevens": 0.4703844677080544, "Mallory McMorrow": 0.03730111518703348 }, "candidate_factors": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 1.004114624752896, "Haley Stevens": 0.9961883763359541, "Mallory McMorrow": 0.9947068472629643 }, "max_center_drift_points": 1.122841819523046e-08 }, "weighted_live_residual_mae_points": 6.131157946830113, "win_probabilities": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 0.8368, "Haley Stevens": 0.1632, "Mallory McMorrow": 0.0 }, "most_likely_winner": "Abdul El-Sayed", "most_likely_winner_probability": 0.8368, "candidate_median_share_points": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 49.24210019559871, "Haley Stevens": 47.01697639200373, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.722736386287316 }, "winning_margin_distribution_points": { "p05": 0.22712467632355796, "p10": 0.45682389447631255, "p25": 1.1616491968997, "median": 2.3518334325835055, "p75": 3.8215446231697507, "p90": 5.120590906084318, "p95": 5.874998866482519 }, "signed_reference_margin_distribution_points": { "reference_candidate": "Abdul El-Sayed", "p10": -0.7209907602907051, "p25": 0.6761419477377517, "median": 2.2142350911356914, "p75": 3.8024952304706954, "p90": 5.11662886049802 }, "future_dump_path": { "available": true, "simulations": 3333, "typical_recent_dump_votes": 10525.0, "learned_dump_log_sigma": 0.7145720676419697, "median_cadence_seconds": null, "steps": [ { "step": 1, "median_new_votes": 8278.833749513396, "leader_probabilities": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 1.0, "Haley Stevens": 0.0, "Mallory McMorrow": 0.0 }, "reference_candidate": "Abdul El-Sayed", "reference_margin_p10": 2.7736839455551787, "reference_margin_median": 2.986457403262943, "reference_margin_p90": 3.12490084701029 }, { "step": 2, "median_new_votes": 8037.059152182552, "leader_probabilities": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 1.0, "Haley Stevens": 0.0, "Mallory McMorrow": 0.0 }, "reference_candidate": "Abdul El-Sayed", "reference_margin_p10": 2.638383692688805, "reference_margin_median": 2.945750759211485, "reference_margin_p90": 3.1781992410750237 }, { "step": 3, "median_new_votes": 8211.84757463416, "leader_probabilities": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 1.0, "Haley Stevens": 0.0, "Mallory McMorrow": 0.0 }, "reference_candidate": "Abdul El-Sayed", "reference_margin_p10": 2.523019863122218, "reference_margin_median": 2.9125163813789987, "reference_margin_p90": 3.198211706814409 } ], "note": "V6 reporting-path simulation uses the Path Referee plus a backward-looking empirical dump-size/cadence/geographic profile." }, "note": "V6 Monte Carlo is explicitly centered on the deterministic V6 Needle. County turnout disagreement and live validation residuals determine distribution width; Path Referee evidence is reserved for future dumps." }, "media_markets": { "available": true, "source": "/var/www/html/afi_needle_lab/engine/media_markets/mi_media_markets.js", "reference_url": "/var/www/html/afi_needle_lab/engine/references/library/mi_democratic_library.json", "mapped_current_vote_coverage": 1.0, "mapped_current_votes": 568436, "unmapped_current_votes": 0, "markets_used": 11, "weighted_market_progress": 0.37687438222822783, "market_coherence": 0.9699097169561773, "total_effective_influence": 0.586715876666671, "largest_effective_market": "DETROIT (MI)", "largest_effective_market_influence": 0.37784262249174255, "candidate_baseline_available": false, "global_swing_points": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 0.0, "Haley Stevens": 0.0, "Mallory McMorrow": 0.0 }, "markets": [ { "market": "DETROIT (MI)", "counties": 9, "current_votes": 383132, "expected_final_votes": 847702.3387288544, "estimated_remaining_votes": 464570.33872885443, "progress": 0.45196525064979015, "live_leader": "Haley Stevens", "live_margin_points": 0.0814340749402287, "residual_points": { "Abdul El-Sayed": -1.2445281771001293, "Haley Stevens": 1.8463915743278658, "Mallory McMorrow": -0.6018633972277375 }, "electorate_weight": 0.5620286104712948, "reporting_confidence": 0.6722836087915502, "residual_mae_points": 1.2309277162185774, "reliability": 1.0, "effective_influence": 0.37784262249174255 }, { "market": "GRAND RAPIDS (MI) - KALAMAZOO (MI) - BATTLE CREEK (MI)", "counties": 14, "current_votes": 77531, "expected_final_votes": 248350.17660416343, "estimated_remaining_votes": 170819.17660416343, "progress": 0.31218419515591456, "live_leader": "Abdul El-Sayed", "live_margin_points": 18.084379151565177, "residual_points": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 7.31456611465614, "Haley Stevens": -7.760327360421271, "Mallory McMorrow": 0.4457612457651333 }, "electorate_weight": 0.1646567412760018, "reporting_confidence": 0.5587344585363557, "residual_mae_points": 5.173551573614181, "reliability": 0.877748985886094, "effective_influence": 0.08075237582243905 }, { "market": "FLINT (MI) - SAGINAW (MI) - BAY CITY (MI)", "counties": 13, "current_votes": 26311, "expected_final_votes": 160178.27292462136, "estimated_remaining_votes": 133867.27292462136, "progress": 0.16426072974567374, "live_leader": "Haley Stevens", "live_margin_points": 10.75215689255445, "residual_points": { "Abdul El-Sayed": -6.2768714717589935, "Haley Stevens": 4.878066080263298, "Mallory McMorrow": 1.3988053914956977 }, "electorate_weight": 0.10619856528237329, "reporting_confidence": 0.40529091989048277, "residual_mae_points": 4.184580981172663, "reliability": 0.9796998811853876, "effective_influence": 0.04216757042185434 }, { "market": "LANSING (MI)", "counties": 5, "current_votes": 36146, "expected_final_votes": 104888.94873273994, "estimated_remaining_votes": 68742.94873273994, "progress": 0.34461209151882194, "live_leader": "Abdul El-Sayed", "live_margin_points": 18.278647706523543, "residual_points": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 7.089608789447011, "Haley Stevens": -8.179553240588767, "Mallory McMorrow": 1.0899444511417555 }, "electorate_weight": 0.06954161551383027, "reporting_confidence": 0.5870367037237296, "residual_mae_points": 5.453035493725845, "reliability": 0.8509104473589124, "effective_influence": 0.034737126261656565 }, { "market": "TRAVERSE CITY (MI) - CADILLAC (MI)", "counties": 25, "current_votes": 30299, "expected_final_votes": 76050.47576615118, "estimated_remaining_votes": 45751.47576615118, "progress": 0.39840644906899564, "live_leader": "Haley Stevens", "live_margin_points": 2.993498135251987, "residual_points": { "Abdul El-Sayed": -3.7038786616085675, "Haley Stevens": 2.2991051501311865, "Mallory McMorrow": 1.4047735114773827 }, "electorate_weight": 0.05042164126221956, "reporting_confidence": 0.631194462165976, "residual_mae_points": 2.469252441072379, "reliability": 1.0, "effective_influence": 0.03182586073803246 }, { "market": "MARQUETTE (MI)", "counties": 10, "current_votes": 6691, "expected_final_votes": 31841.257609855384, "estimated_remaining_votes": 25150.257609855384, "progress": 0.21013617244593466, "live_leader": "Abdul El-Sayed", "live_margin_points": 3.9157076670153943, "residual_points": { "Abdul El-Sayed": -1.8958179282094911, "Haley Stevens": -2.7266533444305554, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.622471272640046 }, "electorate_weight": 0.021110827412556744, "reporting_confidence": 0.45840612173697537, "residual_mae_points": 3.081647515093364, "reliability": 1.0, "effective_influence": 0.009677332520848764 }, { "market": "SOUTH BEND (IN) - ELKHART (IN)", "counties": 2, "current_votes": 4799, "expected_final_votes": 19954.292091805597, "estimated_remaining_votes": 15155.292091805597, "progress": 0.24049963676590416, "live_leader": "Abdul El-Sayed", "live_margin_points": 5.834548864346739, "residual_points": { "Abdul El-Sayed": -0.9936855442487494, "Haley Stevens": -3.7645505902139464, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.758236134462699 }, "electorate_weight": 0.013229741791337716, "reporting_confidence": 0.49040762307075136, "residual_mae_points": 3.1721574229751313, "reliability": 1.0, "effective_influence": 0.006487966225729713 }, { "market": "TOLEDO (OH)", "counties": 1, "current_votes": 0, "expected_final_votes": 9669.598638685868, "estimated_remaining_votes": 9669.598638685868, "progress": 0.0, "live_leader": "Abdul El-Sayed", "live_margin_points": 3.0094856764877664, "residual_points": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 0.0, "Haley Stevens": 0.0, "Mallory McMorrow": 0.0 }, "electorate_weight": 0.0064109662536321575, "reporting_confidence": 0.0, "residual_mae_points": 0.0, "reliability": 1.0, "effective_influence": 0.0 }, { "market": "GREEN BAY (WI) - APPLETON (WI)", "counties": 1, "current_votes": 0, "expected_final_votes": 2394.3909432300134, "estimated_remaining_votes": 2394.3909432300134, "progress": 0.0, "live_leader": "Abdul El-Sayed", "live_margin_points": 3.0094856764877664, "residual_points": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 0.0, "Haley Stevens": 0.0, "Mallory McMorrow": 0.0 }, "electorate_weight": 0.0015874867312110333, "reporting_confidence": 0.0, "residual_mae_points": 0.0, "reliability": 1.0, "effective_influence": 0.0 }, { "market": "ALPENA (MI)", "counties": 2, "current_votes": 3246, "expected_final_votes": 5175.863738634341, "estimated_remaining_votes": 1929.8637386343407, "progress": 0.6271417030882775, "live_leader": "Haley Stevens", "live_margin_points": 1.0474430067775764, "residual_points": { "Abdul El-Sayed": -3.5815997367740438, "Haley Stevens": 0.4753289464912991, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.1062707902827467 }, "electorate_weight": 0.0034316096253497364, "reporting_confidence": 0.791922788590073, "residual_mae_points": 2.3877331578493632, "reliability": 1.0, "effective_influence": 0.002717569863859499 }, { "market": "DULUTH (MN) - SUPERIOR (WI)", "counties": 1, "current_votes": 281, "expected_final_votes": 2084.7504679250023, "estimated_remaining_votes": 1803.7504679250023, "progress": 0.134788313672708, "live_leader": "Abdul El-Sayed", "live_margin_points": 6.761565836298933, "residual_points": { "Abdul El-Sayed": -0.671595894739095, "Haley Stevens": -3.426637893336289, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.098233788075381 }, "electorate_weight": 0.0013821943801927466, "reporting_confidence": 0.3671352797984797, "residual_mae_points": 2.732155858716922, "reliability": 1.0, "effective_influence": 0.0005074523205079503 } ], "counties": [ { "county": "Wayne", "fips": "26163", "market": "DETROIT (MI)", "percent_reporting": 22.97, "current_votes": 69886, "expected_final_votes": 313753.3379252507, "estimated_remaining_votes": 243867.3379252507, "live_leader": "Haley Stevens", "projected_remaining_leader": "Haley Stevens", "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 41.883989886347656, "Haley Stevens": 54.69430961495851, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.421700498693841 }, "projected_top_two_margin_contribution_votes": -50627.1857018765 }, { "county": "Washtenaw", "fips": "26161", "market": "DETROIT (MI)", "percent_reporting": 64.95, "current_votes": 58927, "expected_final_votes": 95302.1212808926, "estimated_remaining_votes": 36375.12128089261, "live_leader": "Abdul El-Sayed", "projected_remaining_leader": "Abdul El-Sayed", "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 61.13241452356307, "Haley Stevens": 35.66922880981806, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.1983566666188743 }, "projected_top_two_margin_contribution_votes": 27748.264685353668 }, { "county": "Kent", "fips": "26081", "market": "GRAND RAPIDS (MI) - KALAMAZOO (MI) - BATTLE CREEK (MI)", "percent_reporting": 53.71, "current_votes": 44593, "expected_final_votes": 91511.32971673878, "estimated_remaining_votes": 46918.32971673878, "live_leader": "Abdul El-Sayed", "projected_remaining_leader": "Abdul El-Sayed", "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 61.76557529420783, "Haley Stevens": 34.48860993399848, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.745814771793685 }, "projected_top_two_margin_contribution_votes": 27536.896544423646 }, { "county": "Ingham", "fips": "26065", "market": "LANSING (MI)", "percent_reporting": 34.23, "current_votes": 18881, "expected_final_votes": 57513.62316125496, "estimated_remaining_votes": 38632.62316125496, "live_leader": "Abdul El-Sayed", "projected_remaining_leader": "Abdul El-Sayed", "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 60.633133341067946, "Haley Stevens": 35.39034352622859, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.9765231327034676 }, "projected_top_two_margin_contribution_votes": 16294.95186455454 }, { "county": "Macomb", "fips": "26099", "market": "DETROIT (MI)", "percent_reporting": 27.41, "current_votes": 31576, "expected_final_votes": 118627.54937106233, "estimated_remaining_votes": 87051.54937106233, "live_leader": "Abdul El-Sayed", "projected_remaining_leader": "Abdul El-Sayed", "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 52.85762277002989, "Haley Stevens": 44.14842517349861, "Mallory McMorrow": 2.9939520564715103 }, "projected_top_two_margin_contribution_votes": 12566.4914455678 }, { "county": "Oakland", "fips": "26125", "market": "DETROIT (MI)", "percent_reporting": 76.49, "current_votes": 189661, "expected_final_votes": 247955.28827297688, "estimated_remaining_votes": 58294.288272976875, "live_leader": "Haley Stevens", "projected_remaining_leader": "Haley Stevens", "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 47.67587716609377, "Haley Stevens": 49.5308483329002, "Mallory McMorrow": 2.793274501006043 }, "projected_top_two_margin_contribution_votes": -5357.342239358739 }, { "county": "Kalamazoo", "fips": "26077", "market": "GRAND RAPIDS (MI) - KALAMAZOO (MI) - BATTLE CREEK (MI)", "percent_reporting": 3.45, "current_votes": 1425, "expected_final_votes": 43510.15108479823, "estimated_remaining_votes": 42085.15108479823, "live_leader": "Haley Stevens", "projected_remaining_leader": "Abdul El-Sayed", "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 52.530449967145984, "Haley Stevens": 43.377980375232795, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.091569657621217 }, "projected_top_two_margin_contribution_votes": 3839.8306557468823 }, { "county": "Ottawa", "fips": "26139", "market": "GRAND RAPIDS (MI) - KALAMAZOO (MI) - BATTLE CREEK (MI)", "percent_reporting": 38.53, "current_votes": 9627, "expected_final_votes": 24412.060276468925, "estimated_remaining_votes": 14785.060276468925, "live_leader": "Abdul El-Sayed", "projected_remaining_leader": "Abdul El-Sayed", "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 53.665147388333324, "Haley Stevens": 42.023841411405925, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.311011200260754 }, "projected_top_two_margin_contribution_votes": 2854.1741056568953 }, { "county": "Muskegon", "fips": "26121", "market": "GRAND RAPIDS (MI) - KALAMAZOO (MI) - BATTLE CREEK (MI)", "percent_reporting": 0.0, "current_votes": 0, "expected_final_votes": 24944.417489173677, "estimated_remaining_votes": 24944.417489173677, "live_leader": null, "projected_remaining_leader": "Abdul El-Sayed", "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 53.755992172488, "Haley Stevens": 42.32364405270962, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.9203637748023836 }, "projected_top_two_margin_contribution_votes": 2851.732643813217 }, { "county": "Berrien", "fips": "26021", "market": "SOUTH BEND (IN) - ELKHART (IN)", "percent_reporting": 9.46, "current_votes": 1294, "expected_final_votes": 16350.65577827919, "estimated_remaining_votes": 15056.65577827919, "live_leader": "Abdul El-Sayed", "projected_remaining_leader": "Abdul El-Sayed", "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 52.01766476664306, "Haley Stevens": 42.010173410721244, "Mallory McMorrow": 5.972161822635695 }, "projected_top_two_margin_contribution_votes": 1799.793525502192 }, { "county": "Clinton", "fips": "26037", "market": "LANSING (MI)", "percent_reporting": 0.11, "current_votes": 11, "expected_final_votes": 12052.099798507375, "estimated_remaining_votes": 12041.099798507375, "live_leader": "Abdul El-Sayed", "projected_remaining_leader": "Abdul El-Sayed", "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 54.4576726469281, "Haley Stevens": 41.37417265368343, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.168154699388466 }, "projected_top_two_margin_contribution_votes": 1580.397291324297 }, { "county": "Saginaw", "fips": "26145", "market": "FLINT (MI) - SAGINAW (MI) - BAY CITY (MI)", "percent_reporting": 16.6, "current_votes": 4432, "expected_final_votes": 29118.364928707186, "estimated_remaining_votes": 24686.364928707186, "live_leader": "Haley Stevens", "projected_remaining_leader": "Haley Stevens", "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 45.44369547583122, "Haley Stevens": 50.02665079583474, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.529653728334054 }, "projected_top_two_margin_contribution_votes": -1464.3650748156688 }, { "county": "Allegan", "fips": "26005", "market": "GRAND RAPIDS (MI) - KALAMAZOO (MI) - BATTLE CREEK (MI)", "percent_reporting": 0.0, "current_votes": 0, "expected_final_votes": 12233.214980259478, "estimated_remaining_votes": 12233.214980259478, "live_leader": null, "projected_remaining_leader": "Abdul El-Sayed", "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 53.755992172488, "Haley Stevens": 42.32364405270962, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.9203637748023836 }, "projected_top_two_margin_contribution_votes": 1398.5437227841421 }, { "county": "Livingston", "fips": "26093", "market": "DETROIT (MI)", "percent_reporting": 80.73, "current_votes": 21490, "expected_final_votes": 26523.181154902108, "estimated_remaining_votes": 5033.181154902108, "live_leader": "Abdul El-Sayed", "projected_remaining_leader": "Abdul El-Sayed", "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 50.537907126411916, "Haley Stevens": 45.69373182604352, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.7683610475445697 }, "projected_top_two_margin_contribution_votes": 1379.8161183285647 }, { "county": "Jackson", "fips": "26075", "market": "LANSING (MI)", "percent_reporting": 3.46, "current_votes": 581, "expected_final_votes": 15897.60702633344, "estimated_remaining_votes": 15316.60702633344, "live_leader": "Haley Stevens", "projected_remaining_leader": "Abdul El-Sayed", "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 51.949784101117515, "Haley Stevens": 43.74060460356897, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.309611295313519 }, "projected_top_two_margin_contribution_votes": 1209.3677637258452 }, { "county": "St. Clair", "fips": "26147", "market": "DETROIT (MI)", "percent_reporting": 34.81, "current_votes": 6209, "expected_final_votes": 16964.18585599924, "estimated_remaining_votes": 10755.18585599924, "live_leader": "Haley Stevens", "projected_remaining_leader": "Haley Stevens", "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 45.52555861581319, "Haley Stevens": 50.61698425343859, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.8574571307482186 }, "projected_top_two_margin_contribution_votes": -1123.5922900466066 }, { "county": "Grand Traverse", "fips": "26055", "market": "TRAVERSE CITY (MI) - CADILLAC (MI)", "percent_reporting": 6.860000000000001, "current_votes": 1147, "expected_final_votes": 12382.868104134455, "estimated_remaining_votes": 11235.868104134455, "live_leader": "Abdul El-Sayed", "projected_remaining_leader": "Abdul El-Sayed", "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 51.284189125561575, "Haley Stevens": 44.64375264588213, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.07205822855631 }, "projected_top_two_margin_contribution_votes": 1062.1106843956113 }, { "county": "Shiawassee", "fips": "26155", "market": "FLINT (MI) - SAGINAW (MI) - BAY CITY (MI)", "percent_reporting": 44.43, "current_votes": 3588, "expected_final_votes": 8537.64208510183, "estimated_remaining_votes": 4949.64208510183, "live_leader": "Haley Stevens", "projected_remaining_leader": "Haley Stevens", "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 41.9509482860072, "Haley Stevens": 52.07736033651267, "Mallory McMorrow": 5.971691377480132 }, "projected_top_two_margin_contribution_votes": -1000.2211525626421 }, { "county": "Midland", "fips": "26111", "market": "FLINT (MI) - SAGINAW (MI) - BAY CITY (MI)", "percent_reporting": 38.17, "current_votes": 3780, "expected_final_votes": 10817.057104082069, "estimated_remaining_votes": 7037.057104082069, "live_leader": "Haley Stevens", "projected_remaining_leader": "Haley Stevens", "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 43.98323584909875, "Haley Stevens": 51.43705769456457, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.579706456336687 }, "projected_top_two_margin_contribution_votes": -920.5296997019741 }, { "county": "Calhoun", "fips": "26025", "market": "GRAND RAPIDS (MI) - KALAMAZOO (MI) - BATTLE CREEK (MI)", "percent_reporting": 7.2700000000000005, "current_votes": 918, "expected_final_votes": 12729.954356962822, "estimated_remaining_votes": 11811.954356962822, "live_leader": "Haley Stevens", "projected_remaining_leader": "Abdul El-Sayed", "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 51.33343955084513, "Haley Stevens": 44.364043719366904, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.3025167297879605 }, "projected_top_two_margin_contribution_votes": 776.2218545702772 }, { "county": "Tuscola", "fips": "26157", "market": "FLINT (MI) - SAGINAW (MI) - BAY CITY (MI)", "percent_reporting": 41.07, "current_votes": 2125, "expected_final_votes": 4743.943835602582, "estimated_remaining_votes": 2618.943835602582, "live_leader": "Haley Stevens", "projected_remaining_leader": "Haley Stevens", "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 40.415311836201276, "Haley Stevens": 53.73254349155353, "Mallory McMorrow": 5.852144672245202 }, "projected_top_two_margin_contribution_votes": -759.7708175107634 }, { "county": "Montcalm", "fips": "26117", "market": "GRAND RAPIDS (MI) - KALAMAZOO (MI) - BATTLE CREEK (MI)", "percent_reporting": 63.12, "current_votes": 3207, "expected_final_votes": 5290.014744337204, "estimated_remaining_votes": 2083.0147443372043, "live_leader": "Haley Stevens", "projected_remaining_leader": "Haley Stevens", "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 42.75775292166534, "Haley Stevens": 53.36464372704863, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.8776033512860275 }, "projected_top_two_margin_contribution_votes": -743.9430993918813 }, { "county": "Iosco", "fips": "26069", "market": "FLINT (MI) - SAGINAW (MI) - BAY CITY (MI)", "percent_reporting": 68.61, "current_votes": 3460, "expected_final_votes": 4073.2913002151113, "estimated_remaining_votes": 613.2913002151113, "live_leader": "Haley Stevens", "projected_remaining_leader": "Haley Stevens", "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 40.020014922723725, "Haley Stevens": 54.728933292921354, "Mallory McMorrow": 5.251051784354922 }, "projected_top_two_margin_contribution_votes": -686.2085167201644 }, { "county": "Huron", "fips": "26063", "market": "FLINT (MI) - SAGINAW (MI) - BAY CITY (MI)", "percent_reporting": 91.36, "current_votes": 2200, "expected_final_votes": 2451.9373446972127, "estimated_remaining_votes": 251.93734469721267, "live_leader": "Haley Stevens", "projected_remaining_leader": "Haley Stevens", "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 35.743974720819864, "Haley Stevens": 58.664409394408565, "Mallory McMorrow": 5.591615884771571 }, "projected_top_two_margin_contribution_votes": -611.7451345096986 }, { "county": "Sanilac", "fips": "26151", "market": "DETROIT (MI)", "percent_reporting": 47.64, "current_votes": 1531, "expected_final_votes": 3116.232558525873, "estimated_remaining_votes": 1585.2325585258732, "live_leader": "Haley Stevens", "projected_remaining_leader": "Haley Stevens", "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 40.418874339454206, "Haley Stevens": 55.909281294441136, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.671844366104657 }, "projected_top_two_margin_contribution_votes": -595.5589744986091 }, { "county": "Emmet", "fips": "26047", "market": "TRAVERSE CITY (MI) - CADILLAC (MI)", "percent_reporting": 50.16, "current_votes": 2353, "expected_final_votes": 5135.232900489893, "estimated_remaining_votes": 2782.232900489893, "live_leader": "Abdul El-Sayed", "projected_remaining_leader": "Abdul El-Sayed", "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 52.156035399485255, "Haley Stevens": 42.721598158001385, "Mallory McMorrow": 5.12236644251336 }, "projected_top_two_margin_contribution_votes": 583.4880169086355 }, { "county": "Barry", "fips": "26015", "market": "GRAND RAPIDS (MI) - KALAMAZOO (MI) - BATTLE CREEK (MI)", "percent_reporting": 51.57000000000001, "current_votes": 3040, "expected_final_votes": 5124.356984925492, "estimated_remaining_votes": 2084.356984925492, "live_leader": "Haley Stevens", "projected_remaining_leader": "Haley Stevens", "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 44.11372848908428, "Haley Stevens": 50.62365775759853, "Mallory McMorrow": 5.2626137533171855 }, "projected_top_two_margin_contribution_votes": -547.6901654219855 }, { "county": "Lapeer", "fips": "26087", "market": "DETROIT (MI)", "percent_reporting": 7.41, "current_votes": 685, "expected_final_votes": 8865.641770206288, "estimated_remaining_votes": 8180.641770206288, "live_leader": "Haley Stevens", "projected_remaining_leader": "Haley Stevens", "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 45.79228996542898, "Haley Stevens": 50.717568137335626, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.490141897235416 }, "projected_top_two_margin_contribution_votes": -543.9193634298472 }, { "county": "Monroe", "fips": "26115", "market": "DETROIT (MI)", "percent_reporting": 20.1, "current_votes": 3167, "expected_final_votes": 16594.80053903848, "estimated_remaining_votes": 13427.800539038479, "live_leader": "Haley Stevens", "projected_remaining_leader": "Haley Stevens", "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 46.84313483549693, "Haley Stevens": 49.00479036578306, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.1520747987200055 }, "projected_top_two_margin_contribution_votes": -479.26279294791493 }, { "county": "Marquette", "fips": "26103", "market": "MARQUETTE (MI)", "percent_reporting": 0.0, "current_votes": 0, "expected_final_votes": 13575.142700457824, "estimated_remaining_votes": 13575.142700457824, "live_leader": null, "projected_remaining_leader": "Abdul El-Sayed", "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 48.72118307088248, "Haley Stevens": 45.29627968628418, "Mallory McMorrow": 5.982537242833333 }, "projected_top_two_margin_contribution_votes": 464.93552181202904 }, { "county": "Genesee", "fips": "26049", "market": "FLINT (MI) - SAGINAW (MI) - BAY CITY (MI)", "percent_reporting": 3.4300000000000006, "current_votes": 2213, "expected_final_votes": 66396.37937851738, "estimated_remaining_votes": 64183.37937851738, "live_leader": "Abdul El-Sayed", "projected_remaining_leader": "Haley Stevens", "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 47.42843758833299, "Haley Stevens": 48.36592262839643, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.205639783270581 }, "projected_top_two_margin_contribution_votes": -463.7095798807677 }, { "county": "Roscommon", "fips": "26143", "market": "TRAVERSE CITY (MI) - CADILLAC (MI)", "percent_reporting": 15.72, "current_votes": 484, "expected_final_votes": 3216.255070860492, "estimated_remaining_votes": 2732.255070860492, "live_leader": "Haley Stevens", "projected_remaining_leader": "Haley Stevens", "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 41.91780728508363, "Haley Stevens": 53.36533812772637, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.716854587190006 }, "projected_top_two_margin_contribution_votes": -446.7757419364252 }, { "county": "Branch", "fips": "26023", "market": "GRAND RAPIDS (MI) - KALAMAZOO (MI) - BATTLE CREEK (MI)", "percent_reporting": 45.38, "current_votes": 1514, "expected_final_votes": 2842.9638581037907, "estimated_remaining_votes": 1328.9638581037907, "live_leader": "Haley Stevens", "projected_remaining_leader": "Haley Stevens", "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 42.77182432114381, "Haley Stevens": 52.433686561266754, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.7944891175894435 }, "projected_top_two_margin_contribution_votes": -429.40265719101126 }, { "county": "Benzie", "fips": "26019", "market": "TRAVERSE CITY (MI) - CADILLAC (MI)", "percent_reporting": 24.01, "current_votes": 765, "expected_final_votes": 3939.612088011311, "estimated_remaining_votes": 3174.612088011311, "live_leader": "Abdul El-Sayed", "projected_remaining_leader": "Abdul El-Sayed", "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 52.19382637175936, "Haley Stevens": 43.56003169833647, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.2461419299041765 }, "projected_top_two_margin_contribution_votes": 415.08948935655917 }, { "county": "Clare", "fips": "26035", "market": "TRAVERSE CITY (MI) - CADILLAC (MI)", "percent_reporting": 24.98, "current_votes": 650, "expected_final_votes": 2816.541410974669, "estimated_remaining_votes": 2166.541410974669, "live_leader": "Haley Stevens", "projected_remaining_leader": "Haley Stevens", "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 41.744771167455994, "Haley Stevens": 53.130308462168465, "Mallory McMorrow": 5.1249203703755475 }, "projected_top_two_margin_contribution_votes": -389.67238035191053 }, { "county": "Gratiot", "fips": "26057", "market": "FLINT (MI) - SAGINAW (MI) - BAY CITY (MI)", "percent_reporting": 52.459999999999994, "current_votes": 1835, "expected_final_votes": 3232.8102766628867, "estimated_remaining_votes": 1397.8102766628867, "live_leader": "Haley Stevens", "projected_remaining_leader": "Haley Stevens", "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 42.274201173638126, "Haley Stevens": 51.94212857821382, "Mallory McMorrow": 5.783670248148062 }, "projected_top_two_margin_contribution_votes": -362.1392828014666 }, { "county": "Oceana", "fips": "26127", "market": "GRAND RAPIDS (MI) - KALAMAZOO (MI) - BATTLE CREEK (MI)", "percent_reporting": 51.29, "current_votes": 1350, "expected_final_votes": 2590.3814241764385, "estimated_remaining_votes": 1240.3814241764385, "live_leader": "Haley Stevens", "projected_remaining_leader": "Haley Stevens", "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 43.373861586751936, "Haley Stevens": 52.96703947609157, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.659098937156503 }, "projected_top_two_margin_contribution_votes": -360.99199652757034 }, { "county": "Leelanau", "fips": "26089", "market": "TRAVERSE CITY (MI) - CADILLAC (MI)", "percent_reporting": 15.83, "current_votes": 903, "expected_final_votes": 6399.342097041341, "estimated_remaining_votes": 5496.342097041341, "live_leader": "Abdul El-Sayed", "projected_remaining_leader": "Abdul El-Sayed", "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 50.30969455966534, "Haley Stevens": 45.80022006493844, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.8900853753962217 }, "projected_top_two_margin_contribution_votes": 360.8561450090165 }, { "county": "Presque Isle", "fips": "26141", "market": "TRAVERSE CITY (MI) - CADILLAC (MI)", "percent_reporting": 21.17, "current_votes": 344, "expected_final_votes": 1795.5801453614304, "estimated_remaining_votes": 1451.5801453614304, "live_leader": "Haley Stevens", "projected_remaining_leader": "Haley Stevens", "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 39.86523712629686, "Haley Stevens": 55.26639990673377, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.868362966969372 }, "projected_top_two_margin_contribution_votes": -335.5602210756165 }, { "county": "Lake", "fips": "26085", "market": "TRAVERSE CITY (MI) - CADILLAC (MI)", "percent_reporting": 61.51, "current_votes": 799, "expected_final_votes": 1305.3753173110222, "estimated_remaining_votes": 506.3753173110222, "live_leader": "Haley Stevens", "projected_remaining_leader": "Haley Stevens", "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 37.30177632082068, "Haley Stevens": 57.39603312566187, "Mallory McMorrow": 5.302190553517452 }, "projected_top_two_margin_contribution_votes": -304.7523566568062 }, { "county": "Cheboygan", "fips": "26031", "market": "TRAVERSE CITY (MI) - CADILLAC (MI)", "percent_reporting": 57.26, "current_votes": 1621, "expected_final_votes": 2898.70340083617, "estimated_remaining_votes": 1277.7034008361702, "live_leader": "Haley Stevens", "projected_remaining_leader": "Haley Stevens", "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 43.352152777766264, "Haley Stevens": 52.17785301270506, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.469994209528676 }, "projected_top_two_margin_contribution_votes": -297.76627204941883 }, { "county": "Lenawee", "fips": "26091", "market": "TOLEDO (OH)", "percent_reporting": 0.0, "current_votes": 0, "expected_final_votes": 9669.598638685868, "estimated_remaining_votes": 9669.598638685868, "live_leader": null, "projected_remaining_leader": "Abdul El-Sayed", "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 49.66909203498723, "Haley Stevens": 46.65960635849946, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.67130160651331 }, "projected_top_two_margin_contribution_votes": 291.00518600510713 }, { "county": "Houghton", "fips": "26061", "market": "MARQUETTE (MI)", "percent_reporting": 25.489999999999995, "current_votes": 1059, "expected_final_votes": 4404.74264210606, "estimated_remaining_votes": 3345.74264210606, "live_leader": "Abdul El-Sayed", "projected_remaining_leader": "Abdul El-Sayed", "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 49.39066473553705, "Haley Stevens": 44.310002227579524, "Mallory McMorrow": 6.299333036883425 }, "projected_top_two_margin_contribution_votes": 240.98589203022993 }, { "county": "Eaton", "fips": "26045", "market": "LANSING (MI)", "percent_reporting": 92.34, "current_votes": 15102, "expected_final_votes": 16590.461967871655, "estimated_remaining_votes": 1488.4619678716554, "live_leader": "Abdul El-Sayed", "projected_remaining_leader": "Abdul El-Sayed", "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 48.30919776392324, "Haley Stevens": 45.937876655069296, "Mallory McMorrow": 5.752925581007464 }, "projected_top_two_margin_contribution_votes": 232.29621284140285 }, { "county": "Bay", "fips": "26017", "market": "FLINT (MI) - SAGINAW (MI) - BAY CITY (MI)", "percent_reporting": 5.77, "current_votes": 926, "expected_final_votes": 16434.35687490029, "estimated_remaining_votes": 15508.356874900292, "live_leader": "Abdul El-Sayed", "projected_remaining_leader": "Haley Stevens", "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 46.974915028680385, "Haley Stevens": 48.51100077968679, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.514084191632831 }, "projected_top_two_margin_contribution_votes": -222.22166017056588 }, { "county": "Oscoda", "fips": "26135", "market": "TRAVERSE CITY (MI) - CADILLAC (MI)", "percent_reporting": 99.0, "current_votes": 1082, "expected_final_votes": 1082.0, "estimated_remaining_votes": 0.0, "live_leader": "Haley Stevens", "projected_remaining_leader": "Haley Stevens", "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 39.00299304350604, "Haley Stevens": 57.297215663453784, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.6997912930401866 }, "projected_top_two_margin_contribution_votes": -219.0 }, { "county": "Mecosta", "fips": "26107", "market": "TRAVERSE CITY (MI) - CADILLAC (MI)", "percent_reporting": 98.54, "current_votes": 3431, "expected_final_votes": 3509.31944933675, "estimated_remaining_votes": 78.31944933675004, "live_leader": "Haley Stevens", "projected_remaining_leader": "Haley Stevens", "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 44.998351229793826, "Haley Stevens": 50.50621149411809, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.495437276088085 }, "projected_top_two_margin_contribution_votes": -211.31372582925633 }, { "county": "Osceola", "fips": "26133", "market": "TRAVERSE CITY (MI) - CADILLAC (MI)", "percent_reporting": 99.0, "current_votes": 1571, "expected_final_votes": 1591.7658964605735, "estimated_remaining_votes": 20.765896460573458, "live_leader": "Haley Stevens", "projected_remaining_leader": "Haley Stevens", "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 41.053937201188425, "Haley Stevens": 52.532275569726316, "Mallory McMorrow": 6.413787229085255 }, "projected_top_two_margin_contribution_votes": -201.38357986100482 }, { "county": "Missaukee", "fips": "26113", "market": "TRAVERSE CITY (MI) - CADILLAC (MI)", "percent_reporting": 93.37, "current_votes": 943, "expected_final_votes": 1013.6638202850164, "estimated_remaining_votes": 70.66382028501641, "live_leader": "Haley Stevens", "projected_remaining_leader": "Haley Stevens", "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 38.32803229566662, "Haley Stevens": 55.29888375776875, "Mallory McMorrow": 6.373083946564649 }, "projected_top_two_margin_contribution_votes": -188.9922519780169 }, { "county": "Crawford", "fips": "26039", "market": "TRAVERSE CITY (MI) - CADILLAC (MI)", "percent_reporting": 81.36, "current_votes": 1135, "expected_final_votes": 1423.2488843055814, "estimated_remaining_votes": 288.24888430558144, "live_leader": "Haley Stevens", "projected_remaining_leader": "Haley Stevens", "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 40.971007896079584, "Haley Stevens": 52.62605685328824, "Mallory McMorrow": 6.402935250632183 }, "projected_top_two_margin_contribution_votes": -179.59554858442334 }, { "county": "Wexford", "fips": "26165", "market": "TRAVERSE CITY (MI) - CADILLAC (MI)", "percent_reporting": 44.65, "current_votes": 1194, "expected_final_votes": 2749.661102210802, "estimated_remaining_votes": 1555.6611022108018, "live_leader": "Haley Stevens", "projected_remaining_leader": "Haley Stevens", "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 45.08513146731693, "Haley Stevens": 50.54840976584226, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.366458766840813 }, "projected_top_two_margin_contribution_votes": -177.99009539568283 }, { "county": "Gd. Traverse", "fips": null, "market": null, "percent_reporting": 0.0, "current_votes": 0, "expected_final_votes": 5156.92134952329, "estimated_remaining_votes": 5156.92134952329, "live_leader": null, "projected_remaining_leader": "Abdul El-Sayed", "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 49.66909203498723, "Haley Stevens": 46.65960635849946, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.67130160651331 }, "projected_top_two_margin_contribution_votes": 155.19680936164286 }, { "county": "Van Buren", "fips": "26159", "market": "GRAND RAPIDS (MI) - KALAMAZOO (MI) - BATTLE CREEK (MI)", "percent_reporting": 21.44, "current_votes": 1748, "expected_final_votes": 8264.409355732236, "estimated_remaining_votes": 6516.409355732236, "live_leader": "Haley Stevens", "projected_remaining_leader": "Abdul El-Sayed", "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 49.79173839966465, "Haley Stevens": 46.063479135932525, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.144782464402823 }, "projected_top_two_margin_contribution_votes": 151.94863546779425 }, { "county": "Alger", "fips": "26003", "market": "MARQUETTE (MI)", "percent_reporting": 20.65, "current_votes": 291, "expected_final_votes": 1478.3829746305028, "estimated_remaining_votes": 1187.3829746305028, "live_leader": "Abdul El-Sayed", "projected_remaining_leader": "Abdul El-Sayed", "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 50.31734007253847, "Haley Stevens": 41.421635247751, "Mallory McMorrow": 8.261024679710525 }, "projected_top_two_margin_contribution_votes": 150.6260845629107 }, { "county": "Delta", "fips": "26041", "market": "MARQUETTE (MI)", "percent_reporting": 89.81, "current_votes": 4266, "expected_final_votes": 4662.775972849321, "estimated_remaining_votes": 396.7759728493211, "live_leader": "Abdul El-Sayed", "projected_remaining_leader": "Abdul El-Sayed", "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 46.96072590202496, "Haley Stevens": 44.06549294753137, "Mallory McMorrow": 8.97378115044367 }, "projected_top_two_margin_contribution_votes": 132.48758872144572 }, { "county": "Charlevoix", "fips": "26029", "market": "TRAVERSE CITY (MI) - CADILLAC (MI)", "percent_reporting": 96.98, "current_votes": 3339, "expected_final_votes": 3527.7267376707814, "estimated_remaining_votes": 188.7267376707814, "live_leader": "Abdul El-Sayed", "projected_remaining_leader": "Abdul El-Sayed", "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 49.2344701424194, "Haley Stevens": 45.97010852931564, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.795421328264963 }, "projected_top_two_margin_contribution_votes": 130.16072317818794 }, { "county": "St. Joseph", "fips": "26149", "market": "GRAND RAPIDS (MI) - KALAMAZOO (MI) - BATTLE CREEK (MI)", "percent_reporting": 73.25, "current_votes": 4494, "expected_final_votes": 4925.739441741673, "estimated_remaining_votes": 431.73944174167264, "live_leader": "Haley Stevens", "projected_remaining_leader": "Haley Stevens", "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 46.980049574190105, "Haley Stevens": 47.5604278734293, "Mallory McMorrow": 5.459522552380598 }, "projected_top_two_margin_contribution_votes": -119.50572202912554 }, { "county": "Alpena", "fips": "26007", "market": "ALPENA (MI)", "percent_reporting": 58.050000000000004, "current_votes": 2009, "expected_final_votes": 3894.450761167416, "estimated_remaining_votes": 1885.4507611674162, "live_leader": "Abdul El-Sayed", "projected_remaining_leader": "Abdul El-Sayed", "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 48.276640967483175, "Haley Stevens": 45.781523725542684, "Mallory McMorrow": 5.941835306974138 }, "projected_top_two_margin_contribution_votes": 113.0442070301865 }, { "county": "Gogebic", "fips": "26053", "market": "DULUTH (MN) - SUPERIOR (WI)", "percent_reporting": 12.08, "current_votes": 281, "expected_final_votes": 2084.7504679250023, "estimated_remaining_votes": 1803.7504679250023, "live_leader": "Abdul El-Sayed", "projected_remaining_leader": "Abdul El-Sayed", "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 49.132108775847755, "Haley Stevens": 43.91979332767477, "Mallory McMorrow": 6.94809789647748 }, "projected_top_two_margin_contribution_votes": 113.01716428614748 }, { "county": "Hillsdale", "fips": "26059", "market": "LANSING (MI)", "percent_reporting": 54.47, "current_votes": 1571, "expected_final_votes": 2835.1567787725116, "estimated_remaining_votes": 1264.1567787725116, "live_leader": "Haley Stevens", "projected_remaining_leader": "Haley Stevens", "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 46.61104053914822, "Haley Stevens": 47.702654882419196, "Mallory McMorrow": 5.68630457843258 }, "projected_top_two_margin_contribution_votes": -103.79971671851308 }, { "county": "Alcona", "fips": "26001", "market": "ALPENA (MI)", "percent_reporting": 96.49, "current_votes": 1237, "expected_final_votes": 1281.4129774669245, "estimated_remaining_votes": 44.41297746692453, "live_leader": "Haley Stevens", "projected_remaining_leader": "Haley Stevens", "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 42.38624395242418, "Haley Stevens": 49.66523197215611, "Mallory McMorrow": 7.948524075419708 }, "projected_top_two_margin_contribution_votes": -103.23281530902364 }, { "county": "Dickinson", "fips": "26043", "market": "MARQUETTE (MI)", "percent_reporting": 0.0, "current_votes": 0, "expected_final_votes": 2771.437006206097, "estimated_remaining_votes": 2771.437006206097, "live_leader": null, "projected_remaining_leader": "Abdul El-Sayed", "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 48.72118307088248, "Haley Stevens": 45.29627968628418, "Mallory McMorrow": 5.982537242833333 }, "projected_top_two_margin_contribution_votes": 94.91903982756253 }, { "county": "Otsego", "fips": "26137", "market": "TRAVERSE CITY (MI) - CADILLAC (MI)", "percent_reporting": 70.99, "current_votes": 1730, "expected_final_votes": 2582.2585725086306, "estimated_remaining_votes": 852.2585725086306, "live_leader": "Haley Stevens", "projected_remaining_leader": "Haley Stevens", "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 46.2680369341237, "Haley Stevens": 48.9233121371482, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.808650928728096 }, "projected_top_two_margin_contribution_votes": -74.62981054147235 }, { "county": "Menominee", "fips": "26109", "market": "GREEN BAY (WI) - APPLETON (WI)", "percent_reporting": 0.0, "current_votes": 0, "expected_final_votes": 2394.3909432300134, "estimated_remaining_votes": 2394.3909432300134, "live_leader": null, "projected_remaining_leader": "Abdul El-Sayed", "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 49.66909203498723, "Haley Stevens": 46.65960635849946, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.67130160651331 }, "projected_top_two_margin_contribution_votes": 72.05885247562765 }, { "county": "Gladwin", "fips": "26051", "market": "FLINT (MI) - SAGINAW (MI) - BAY CITY (MI)", "percent_reporting": 0.0, "current_votes": 0, "expected_final_votes": 2590.3361413120724, "estimated_remaining_votes": 2590.3361413120724, "live_leader": null, "projected_remaining_leader": "Haley Stevens", "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 46.53065629910773, "Haley Stevens": 49.09863939863111, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.370704302261159 }, "projected_top_two_margin_contribution_votes": -66.51939432973995 }, { "county": "Ogemaw", "fips": "26129", "market": "FLINT (MI) - SAGINAW (MI) - BAY CITY (MI)", "percent_reporting": 0.0, "current_votes": 0, "expected_final_votes": 2287.5117442761625, "estimated_remaining_votes": 2287.5117442761625, "live_leader": null, "projected_remaining_leader": "Haley Stevens", "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 46.53065629910773, "Haley Stevens": 49.09863939863111, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.370704302261159 }, "projected_top_two_margin_contribution_votes": -58.742914992624264 }, { "county": "Iron", "fips": "26071", "market": "MARQUETTE (MI)", "percent_reporting": 0.0, "current_votes": 0, "expected_final_votes": 1664.049750378701, "estimated_remaining_votes": 1664.049750378701, "live_leader": null, "projected_remaining_leader": "Abdul El-Sayed", "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 48.72118307088248, "Haley Stevens": 45.29627968628418, "Mallory McMorrow": 5.982537242833333 }, "projected_top_two_margin_contribution_votes": 56.9920962221197 }, { "county": "Mackinac", "fips": "26097", "market": "TRAVERSE CITY (MI) - CADILLAC (MI)", "percent_reporting": 93.9, "current_votes": 1446, "expected_final_votes": 1531.6106847214805, "estimated_remaining_votes": 85.61068472148054, "live_leader": "Haley Stevens", "projected_remaining_leader": "Haley Stevens", "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 45.43851662439589, "Haley Stevens": 48.7529875934129, "Mallory McMorrow": 5.808495782191213 }, "projected_top_two_margin_contribution_votes": -54.83754129147019 }, { "county": "Keweenaw", "fips": "26083", "market": "MARQUETTE (MI)", "percent_reporting": 92.62, "current_votes": 414, "expected_final_votes": 449.8563472124265, "estimated_remaining_votes": 35.8563472124265, "live_leader": "Abdul El-Sayed", "projected_remaining_leader": "Abdul El-Sayed", "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 51.82864004621869, "Haley Stevens": 42.13832362080234, "Mallory McMorrow": 6.033036332978985 }, "projected_top_two_margin_contribution_votes": 46.474593503480094 }, { "county": "Ontonagon", "fips": "26131", "market": "MARQUETTE (MI)", "percent_reporting": 15.380000000000003, "current_votes": 134, "expected_final_votes": 984.4069201533449, "estimated_remaining_votes": 850.4069201533449, "live_leader": "Abdul El-Sayed", "projected_remaining_leader": "Abdul El-Sayed", "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 48.63736761448609, "Haley Stevens": 44.799619903732044, "Mallory McMorrow": 6.563012481781872 }, "projected_top_two_margin_contribution_votes": 38.63647211027893 }, { "county": "Arenac", "fips": "26011", "market": "FLINT (MI) - SAGINAW (MI) - BAY CITY (MI)", "percent_reporting": 0.0, "current_votes": 0, "expected_final_votes": 1502.2465186291217, "estimated_remaining_votes": 1502.2465186291217, "live_leader": null, "projected_remaining_leader": "Haley Stevens", "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 46.53065629910773, "Haley Stevens": 49.09863939863111, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.370704302261159 }, "projected_top_two_margin_contribution_votes": -38.57743671157414 }, { "county": "Chippewa", "fips": "26033", "market": "TRAVERSE CITY (MI) - CADILLAC (MI)", "percent_reporting": 77.91, "current_votes": 2769, "expected_final_votes": 3536.4548380501774, "estimated_remaining_votes": 767.4548380501774, "live_leader": "Abdul El-Sayed", "projected_remaining_leader": "Abdul El-Sayed", "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 47.50330756917508, "Haley Stevens": 46.6703517424024, "Mallory McMorrow": 5.826340688422519 }, "projected_top_two_margin_contribution_votes": 35.39255979138784 }, { "county": "Baraga", "fips": "26013", "market": "MARQUETTE (MI)", "percent_reporting": 66.21, "current_votes": 527, "expected_final_votes": 863.3151388567894, "estimated_remaining_votes": 336.3151388567894, "live_leader": "Haley Stevens", "projected_remaining_leader": "Haley Stevens", "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 44.126099979006995, "Haley Stevens": 47.193657423985094, "Mallory McMorrow": 8.68024259700791 }, "projected_top_two_margin_contribution_votes": -34.316660080589884 }, { "county": "Mason", "fips": "26105", "market": "TRAVERSE CITY (MI) - CADILLAC (MI)", "percent_reporting": 20.12, "current_votes": 718, "expected_final_votes": 3444.660439539037, "estimated_remaining_votes": 2726.660439539037, "live_leader": "Abdul El-Sayed", "projected_remaining_leader": "Abdul El-Sayed", "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 47.903586332537124, "Haley Stevens": 47.27144052756399, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.824973139898888 }, "projected_top_two_margin_contribution_votes": 34.23646958440804 }, { "county": "Newaygo", "fips": "26123", "market": "GRAND RAPIDS (MI) - KALAMAZOO (MI) - BATTLE CREEK (MI)", "percent_reporting": 11.7, "current_votes": 474, "expected_final_votes": 3674.745116245081, "estimated_remaining_votes": 3200.745116245081, "live_leader": "Haley Stevens", "projected_remaining_leader": "Abdul El-Sayed", "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 48.574443095125474, "Haley Stevens": 47.042088820401894, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.383468084472638 }, "projected_top_two_margin_contribution_votes": -33.95324538821228 }, { "county": "Schoolcraft", "fips": "26153", "market": "MARQUETTE (MI)", "percent_reporting": 0.0, "current_votes": 0, "expected_final_votes": 987.1481570043142, "estimated_remaining_votes": 987.1481570043142, "live_leader": null, "projected_remaining_leader": "Abdul El-Sayed", "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 48.72118307088248, "Haley Stevens": 45.29627968628418, "Mallory McMorrow": 5.982537242833333 }, "projected_top_two_margin_contribution_votes": 33.80887064024057 }, { "county": "Manistee", "fips": "26101", "market": "TRAVERSE CITY (MI) - CADILLAC (MI)", "percent_reporting": 0.0, "current_votes": 0, "expected_final_votes": 3791.242696224088, "estimated_remaining_votes": 3791.242696224088, "live_leader": null, "projected_remaining_leader": "Haley Stevens", "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 47.33122433524517, "Haley Stevens": 48.11078879719955, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.557986867555287 }, "projected_top_two_margin_contribution_votes": -29.555180726203844 }, { "county": "Luce", "fips": "26095", "market": "TRAVERSE CITY (MI) - CADILLAC (MI)", "percent_reporting": 99.0, "current_votes": 407, "expected_final_votes": 413.3492988189343, "estimated_remaining_votes": 6.349298818934301, "live_leader": "Haley Stevens", "projected_remaining_leader": "Haley Stevens", "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 43.20978091018299, "Haley Stevens": 49.258253326894405, "Mallory McMorrow": 7.531965762922606 }, "projected_top_two_margin_contribution_votes": -27.38403558771782 }, { "county": "Antrim", "fips": "26009", "market": "TRAVERSE CITY (MI) - CADILLAC (MI)", "percent_reporting": 0.0, "current_votes": 0, "expected_final_votes": 3308.801867612957, "estimated_remaining_votes": 3308.801867612957, "live_leader": null, "projected_remaining_leader": "Haley Stevens", "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 47.33122433524517, "Haley Stevens": 48.11078879719955, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.557986867555287 }, "projected_top_two_margin_contribution_votes": -25.794243476393376 }, { "county": "Kalkaska", "fips": "26079", "market": "TRAVERSE CITY (MI) - CADILLAC (MI)", "percent_reporting": 89.08, "current_votes": 1468, "expected_final_votes": 1684.3815528881141, "estimated_remaining_votes": 216.38155288811413, "live_leader": "Haley Stevens", "projected_remaining_leader": "Haley Stevens", "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 46.72903524006403, "Haley Stevens": 47.97184182249924, "Mallory McMorrow": 5.299122937436727 }, "projected_top_two_margin_contribution_votes": -21.689204182468984 }, { "county": "Cass", "fips": "26027", "market": "SOUTH BEND (IN) - ELKHART (IN)", "percent_reporting": 99.0, "current_votes": 3505, "expected_final_votes": 3603.636313526408, "estimated_remaining_votes": 98.63631352640778, "live_leader": "Haley Stevens", "projected_remaining_leader": "Abdul El-Sayed", "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 45.46216073227773, "Haley Stevens": 45.35647775683854, "Mallory McMorrow": 9.181361510883738 }, "projected_top_two_margin_contribution_votes": -12.89575820900177 }, { "county": "Ionia", "fips": "26067", "market": "GRAND RAPIDS (MI) - KALAMAZOO (MI) - BATTLE CREEK (MI)", "percent_reporting": 53.0, "current_votes": 5141, "expected_final_votes": 6296.4377744995945, "estimated_remaining_votes": 1155.4377744995945, "live_leader": "Haley Stevens", "projected_remaining_leader": "Abdul El-Sayed", "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 49.3860066237979, "Haley Stevens": 46.60223387073922, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.0117595054628845 }, "projected_top_two_margin_contribution_votes": 9.164761945067312 }, { "county": "Montmorency", "fips": "26119", "market": "TRAVERSE CITY (MI) - CADILLAC (MI)", "percent_reporting": 0.0, "current_votes": 0, "expected_final_votes": 970.8193904974759, "estimated_remaining_votes": 970.8193904974759, "live_leader": null, "projected_remaining_leader": "Haley Stevens", "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 47.33122433524517, "Haley Stevens": 48.11078879719955, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.557986867555287 }, "projected_top_two_margin_contribution_votes": -7.568162958080393 }, { "county": "Isabella", "fips": "26073", "market": "FLINT (MI) - SAGINAW (MI) - BAY CITY (MI)", "percent_reporting": 23.48, "current_votes": 1752, "expected_final_votes": 7992.3953919174755, "estimated_remaining_votes": 6240.3953919174755, "live_leader": "Abdul El-Sayed", "projected_remaining_leader": "Haley Stevens", "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 47.382038367813664, "Haley Stevens": 47.792973567688215, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.82498806449812 }, "projected_top_two_margin_contribution_votes": 7.356018723261968 } ] }, "historical_candidate_geo": { "available": true, "reference_url": "/var/www/html/afi_needle_lab/engine/references/library/mi_democratic_library.json", "historical_elections": 4, "historical_candidate_patterns": 10, "training_counties": 65, "reporting_evidence": 1.0, "mean_pattern_signal": 0.21148803111733314, "cross_validation_available": true, "cross_validation_counties": 65, "cross_validation_mae_points": 4.012445731824946, "cross_validation_score": 0.4821328465755259, "confidence": 0.2730407105115759, "max_ensemble_influence": 0.24249579556172088, "estimated_remaining_votes": 944947.4966413771, "candidate_fits": { "Abdul El-Sayed": { "signal_strength": 0.23884137939213668, "top_patterns": [ { "election_name": "2020-03-10 \u2014 Democratic \u2014 President of the United States 4 Year Term (1) Position", "historical_candidate": "Bernie Sanders", "correlation": 0.7455261255268065, "beta": 1.0706429594765925, "quality": 0.3080075665580759, "common_counties": 64 }, { "election_name": "2020-03-10 \u2014 Democratic \u2014 President of the United States 4 Year Term (1) Position", "historical_candidate": "Joe Biden", "correlation": -0.7446348885481799, "beta": -1.184981939466355, "quality": 0.3076393598331682, "common_counties": 64 }, { "election_name": "2018-08-07 \u2014 Democratic \u2014 Governor 4 Year Term (1) Position", "historical_candidate": "Abdul El-Sayed", "correlation": 0.6229030234292812, "beta": 0.493476110905182, "quality": 0.2260266883183196, "common_counties": 64 }, { "election_name": "2018-08-07 \u2014 Democratic \u2014 Governor 4 Year Term (1) Position", "historical_candidate": "Shri Thanedar", "correlation": -0.614591873897054, "beta": -0.8389186709742015, "quality": 0.22301090330166376, "common_counties": 64 }, { "election_name": "2018-08-07 \u2014 Democratic \u2014 Governor 4 Year Term (1) Position", "historical_candidate": "Gretchen Whitmer", "correlation": -0.3569484738711278, "beta": -0.3606843514737004, "quality": 0.12952237894945604, "common_counties": 64 } ] }, "Haley Stevens": { "signal_strength": 0.21411763164737616, "top_patterns": [ { "election_name": "2020-03-10 \u2014 Democratic \u2014 President of the United States 4 Year Term (1) Position", "historical_candidate": "Bernie Sanders", "correlation": -0.7013186438252051, "beta": -0.9575894654544669, "quality": 0.2897436340192271, "common_counties": 64 }, { "election_name": "2020-03-10 \u2014 Democratic \u2014 President of the United States 4 Year Term (1) Position", "historical_candidate": "Joe Biden", "correlation": 0.6988250295747381, "beta": 1.0573505106340284, "quality": 0.28871341920726706, "common_counties": 64 }, { "election_name": "2018-08-07 \u2014 Democratic \u2014 Governor 4 Year Term (1) Position", "historical_candidate": "Shri Thanedar", "correlation": 0.5393239614727245, "beta": 0.6999466499996349, "quality": 0.19569917684985605, "common_counties": 64 }, { "election_name": "2018-08-07 \u2014 Democratic \u2014 Governor 4 Year Term (1) Position", "historical_candidate": "Abdul El-Sayed", "correlation": -0.5279320293499709, "beta": -0.3976544829058659, "quality": 0.1915654985814836, "common_counties": 64 }, { "election_name": "2018-08-07 \u2014 Democratic \u2014 Governor 4 Year Term (1) Position", "historical_candidate": "Gretchen Whitmer", "correlation": 0.28899957136490007, "beta": 0.2776522177443187, "quality": 0.10486642957904709, "common_counties": 64 } ] }, "Mallory McMorrow": { "signal_strength": 0.18150508231248647, "top_patterns": [ { "election_name": "2018-08-07 \u2014 Democratic \u2014 Governor 4 Year Term (1) Position", "historical_candidate": "Abdul El-Sayed", "correlation": -0.6115377320154063, "beta": -0.09582162799931616, "quality": 0.22190267690172963, "common_counties": 64 }, { "election_name": "2018-08-07 \u2014 Democratic \u2014 Governor 4 Year Term (1) Position", "historical_candidate": "Shri Thanedar", "correlation": 0.5147540051182744, "beta": 0.1389720209745667, "quality": 0.1867837186516466, "common_counties": 64 }, { "election_name": "2020-03-10 \u2014 Democratic \u2014 President of the United States 4 Year Term (1) Position", "historical_candidate": "Joe Biden", "correlation": 0.405503575589287, "beta": 0.12763142883232714, "quality": 0.16753023840660053, "common_counties": 64 }, { "election_name": "2024-02-27 \u2014 DEMOCRATIC \u2014 PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES 4 YEAR TERM (1) POSITION", "historical_candidate": "Uncommitted", "correlation": -0.4249539855147144, "beta": -0.21939255805528757, "quality": 0.16686928921632543, "common_counties": 65 }, { "election_name": "2020-03-10 \u2014 Democratic \u2014 President of the United States 4 Year Term (1) Position", "historical_candidate": "Bernie Sanders", "correlation": -0.3980224772725068, "beta": -0.11305349402212642, "quality": 0.16443948838613012, "common_counties": 64 } ] } }, "counties": [ { "county": "Wayne", "cid": "fips:26163", "reporting": 22.97, "current_votes": 69886, "estimated_remaining_votes": 243867.3379252507, "projected_remaining_leader": "Haley Stevens", "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 42.039183939722555, "Haley Stevens": 54.19235074965813, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.7684653106193227 } }, { "county": "Macomb", "cid": "fips:26099", "reporting": 27.41, "current_votes": 31576, "estimated_remaining_votes": 87051.54937106233, "projected_remaining_leader": "Abdul El-Sayed", "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 53.12248600872896, "Haley Stevens": 43.56946823381821, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.308045757452824 } }, { "county": "Genesee", "cid": "fips:26049", "reporting": 3.4300000000000006, "current_votes": 2213, "estimated_remaining_votes": 64183.37937851738, "projected_remaining_leader": "Abdul El-Sayed", "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 48.79051895950185, "Haley Stevens": 47.2183615623654, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.9911194781327395 } }, { "county": "Oakland", "cid": "fips:26125", "reporting": 76.49, "current_votes": 189661, "estimated_remaining_votes": 58294.288272976875, "projected_remaining_leader": "Haley Stevens", "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 47.71659668376283, "Haley Stevens": 49.40867309632232, "Mallory McMorrow": 2.874730219914852 } }, { "county": "Kent", "cid": "fips:26081", "reporting": 53.71, "current_votes": 44593, "estimated_remaining_votes": 46918.32971673878, "projected_remaining_leader": "Abdul El-Sayed", "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 61.06517094947074, "Haley Stevens": 35.240976022173164, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.6938530283561004 } }, { "county": "Kalamazoo", "cid": "fips:26077", "reporting": 3.45, "current_votes": 1425, "estimated_remaining_votes": 42085.15108479823, "projected_remaining_leader": "Abdul El-Sayed", "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 50.06872566977848, "Haley Stevens": 45.945461955212984, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.985812375008542 } }, { "county": "Ingham", "cid": "fips:26065", "reporting": 34.23, "current_votes": 18881, "estimated_remaining_votes": 38632.62316125496, "projected_remaining_leader": "Abdul El-Sayed", "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 59.19896345841974, "Haley Stevens": 37.00984099343226, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.7911955481479875 } }, { "county": "Washtenaw", "cid": "fips:26161", "reporting": 64.95, "current_votes": 58927, "estimated_remaining_votes": 36375.12128089261, "projected_remaining_leader": "Abdul El-Sayed", "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 61.634517447586845, "Haley Stevens": 35.09825884201042, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.2672237104027424 } }, { "county": "Muskegon", "cid": "fips:26121", "reporting": 0.0, "current_votes": 0, "estimated_remaining_votes": 24944.417489173677, "projected_remaining_leader": "Abdul El-Sayed", "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 48.86745331167385, "Haley Stevens": 47.07345622362358, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.059090464702572 } }, { "county": "Saginaw", "cid": "fips:26145", "reporting": 16.6, "current_votes": 4432, "estimated_remaining_votes": 24686.364928707186, "projected_remaining_leader": "Haley Stevens", "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 46.23599051411386, "Haley Stevens": 49.374378458875356, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.389631027010772 } }, { "county": "Bay", "cid": "fips:26017", "reporting": 5.77, "current_votes": 926, "estimated_remaining_votes": 15508.356874900292, "projected_remaining_leader": "Abdul El-Sayed", "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 48.639174198598205, "Haley Stevens": 47.086364674403946, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.274461126997855 } }, { "county": "Jackson", "cid": "fips:26075", "reporting": 3.46, "current_votes": 581, "estimated_remaining_votes": 15316.60702633344, "projected_remaining_leader": "Haley Stevens", "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 47.812721180124086, "Haley Stevens": 48.06720587355889, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.120072946317026 } }, { "county": "Berrien", "cid": "fips:26021", "reporting": 9.46, "current_votes": 1294, "estimated_remaining_votes": 15056.65577827919, "projected_remaining_leader": "Abdul El-Sayed", "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 51.697134957752546, "Haley Stevens": 43.767459238812215, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.535405803435238 } }, { "county": "Ottawa", "cid": "fips:26139", "reporting": 38.53, "current_votes": 9627, "estimated_remaining_votes": 14785.060276468925, "projected_remaining_leader": "Abdul El-Sayed", "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 52.33424920461866, "Haley Stevens": 43.39101754696648, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.274733248414863 } }, { "county": "Marquette", "cid": "fips:26103", "reporting": 0.0, "current_votes": 0, "estimated_remaining_votes": 13575.142700457824, "projected_remaining_leader": "Abdul El-Sayed", "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 50.050320409962424, "Haley Stevens": 46.05455163409896, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.8951279559386243 } }, { "county": "Monroe", "cid": "fips:26115", "reporting": 20.1, "current_votes": 3167, "estimated_remaining_votes": 13427.800539038479, "projected_remaining_leader": "Haley Stevens", "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 46.844872001442525, "Haley Stevens": 48.60026308898521, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.55486490957226 } }, { "county": "Allegan", "cid": "fips:26005", "reporting": 0.0, "current_votes": 0, "estimated_remaining_votes": 12233.214980259478, "projected_remaining_leader": "Abdul El-Sayed", "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 49.14990068162037, "Haley Stevens": 46.877026930714024, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.973072387665598 } }, { "county": "Clinton", "cid": "fips:26037", "reporting": 0.11, "current_votes": 11, "estimated_remaining_votes": 12041.099798507375, "projected_remaining_leader": "Abdul El-Sayed", "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 49.39579286872798, "Haley Stevens": 46.695863473844426, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.908343657427589 } }, { "county": "Calhoun", "cid": "fips:26025", "reporting": 7.2700000000000005, "current_votes": 918, "estimated_remaining_votes": 11811.954356962822, "projected_remaining_leader": "Abdul El-Sayed", "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 47.82171258284078, "Haley Stevens": 47.79573801810169, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.382549399057539 } }, { "county": "Grand Traverse", "cid": "fips:26055", "reporting": 6.860000000000001, "current_votes": 1147, "estimated_remaining_votes": 11235.868104134455, "projected_remaining_leader": "Abdul El-Sayed", "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 52.62143339936578, "Haley Stevens": 43.67251579907974, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.7060508015544906 } }, { "county": "St. Clair", "cid": "fips:26147", "reporting": 34.81, "current_votes": 6209, "estimated_remaining_votes": 10755.18585599924, "projected_remaining_leader": "Haley Stevens", "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 45.74177143414233, "Haley Stevens": 50.120206853024854, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.138021712832829 } }, { "county": "Lenawee", "cid": "fips:26091", "reporting": 0.0, "current_votes": 0, "estimated_remaining_votes": 9669.598638685868, "projected_remaining_leader": "Abdul El-Sayed", "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 49.575444064609464, "Haley Stevens": 46.53459988244582, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.889956052944718 } }, { "county": "Lapeer", "cid": "fips:26087", "reporting": 7.41, "current_votes": 685, "estimated_remaining_votes": 8180.641770206288, "projected_remaining_leader": "Haley Stevens", "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 45.95249915556065, "Haley Stevens": 50.02852157421065, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.018979270228703 } }, { "county": "Midland", "cid": "fips:26111", "reporting": 38.17, "current_votes": 3780, "estimated_remaining_votes": 7037.057104082069, "projected_remaining_leader": "Haley Stevens", "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 44.959830285528966, "Haley Stevens": 50.61615018167678, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.42401953279426 } }, { "county": "Van Buren", "cid": "fips:26159", "reporting": 21.44, "current_votes": 1748, "estimated_remaining_votes": 6516.409355732236, "projected_remaining_leader": "Haley Stevens", "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 47.29787907313362, "Haley Stevens": 48.5237364729025, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.178384453963882 } }, { "county": "Isabella", "cid": "fips:26073", "reporting": 23.48, "current_votes": 1752, "estimated_remaining_votes": 6240.3953919174755, "projected_remaining_leader": "Abdul El-Sayed", "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 49.52196412941391, "Haley Stevens": 45.9528582162092, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.525177654376894 } }, { "county": "Leelanau", "cid": "fips:26089", "reporting": 15.83, "current_votes": 903, "estimated_remaining_votes": 5496.342097041341, "projected_remaining_leader": "Abdul El-Sayed", "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 51.64703171426343, "Haley Stevens": 44.87538478750877, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.477583498227796 } }, { "county": "Gd. Traverse", "cid": "name:gd_traverse", "reporting": 0.0, "current_votes": 0, "estimated_remaining_votes": 5156.92134952329, "projected_remaining_leader": "Abdul El-Sayed", "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 50.67529227550887, "Haley Stevens": 45.614239187712776, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.710468536778343 } }, { "county": "Livingston", "cid": "fips:26093", "reporting": 80.73, "current_votes": 21490, "estimated_remaining_votes": 5033.181154902108, "projected_remaining_leader": "Abdul El-Sayed", "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 50.61850774186075, "Haley Stevens": 45.54952128973251, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.8319709684067464 } }, { "county": "Shiawassee", "cid": "fips:26155", "reporting": 44.43, "current_votes": 3588, "estimated_remaining_votes": 4949.64208510183, "projected_remaining_leader": "Haley Stevens", "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 42.72265204127268, "Haley Stevens": 51.42178817622, "Mallory McMorrow": 5.855559782507323 } }, { "county": "Manistee", "cid": "fips:26101", "reporting": 0.0, "current_votes": 0, "estimated_remaining_votes": 3791.242696224088, "projected_remaining_leader": "Abdul El-Sayed", "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 48.75391880508872, "Haley Stevens": 47.21529646025545, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.030784734655818 } }, { "county": "Houghton", "cid": "fips:26061", "reporting": 25.489999999999995, "current_votes": 1059, "estimated_remaining_votes": 3345.74264210606, "projected_remaining_leader": "Abdul El-Sayed", "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 50.17545621622258, "Haley Stevens": 44.57178907861815, "Mallory McMorrow": 5.252754705159267 } }, { "county": "Antrim", "cid": "fips:26009", "reporting": 0.0, "current_votes": 0, "estimated_remaining_votes": 3308.801867612957, "projected_remaining_leader": "Abdul El-Sayed", "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 49.384996793094786, "Haley Stevens": 46.68419087704887, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.9308123298563467 } }, { "county": "Newaygo", "cid": "fips:26123", "reporting": 11.7, "current_votes": 474, "estimated_remaining_votes": 3200.745116245081, "projected_remaining_leader": "Haley Stevens", "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 45.24067716340856, "Haley Stevens": 50.289524263061445, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.469798573529992 } }, { "county": "Benzie", "cid": "fips:26019", "reporting": 24.01, "current_votes": 765, "estimated_remaining_votes": 3174.612088011311, "projected_remaining_leader": "Abdul El-Sayed", "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 53.42675917780909, "Haley Stevens": 42.655971299822426, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.917269522368493 } }, { "county": "Emmet", "cid": "fips:26047", "reporting": 50.16, "current_votes": 2353, "estimated_remaining_votes": 2782.232900489893, "projected_remaining_leader": "Abdul El-Sayed", "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 52.84145745077515, "Haley Stevens": 42.22609464989786, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.932447899326984 } }, { "county": "Dickinson", "cid": "fips:26043", "reporting": 0.0, "current_votes": 0, "estimated_remaining_votes": 2771.437006206097, "projected_remaining_leader": "Haley Stevens", "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 47.910932401013184, "Haley Stevens": 47.93288919432388, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.15617840466293 } }, { "county": "Roscommon", "cid": "fips:26143", "reporting": 15.72, "current_votes": 484, "estimated_remaining_votes": 2732.255070860492, "projected_remaining_leader": "Haley Stevens", "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 42.23779373056076, "Haley Stevens": 53.30123165059779, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.460974618841467 } }, { "county": "Mason", "cid": "fips:26105", "reporting": 20.12, "current_votes": 718, "estimated_remaining_votes": 2726.660439539037, "projected_remaining_leader": "Abdul El-Sayed", "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 48.5181567888567, "Haley Stevens": 46.921179382112946, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.560663829030363 } }, { "county": "Tuscola", "cid": "fips:26157", "reporting": 41.07, "current_votes": 2125, "estimated_remaining_votes": 2618.943835602582, "projected_remaining_leader": "Haley Stevens", "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 41.002149673480695, "Haley Stevens": 53.245057282077546, "Mallory McMorrow": 5.75279304444176 } }, { "county": "Gladwin", "cid": "fips:26051", "reporting": 0.0, "current_votes": 0, "estimated_remaining_votes": 2590.3361413120724, "projected_remaining_leader": "Haley Stevens", "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 47.434377181661034, "Haley Stevens": 48.428329675165635, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.137293143173326 } }, { "county": "Menominee", "cid": "fips:26109", "reporting": 0.0, "current_votes": 0, "estimated_remaining_votes": 2394.3909432300134, "projected_remaining_leader": "Haley Stevens", "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 47.872823540922, "Haley Stevens": 48.03114157191438, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.096034887163615 } }, { "county": "Ogemaw", "cid": "fips:26129", "reporting": 0.0, "current_votes": 0, "estimated_remaining_votes": 2287.5117442761625, "projected_remaining_leader": "Abdul El-Sayed", "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 47.96172067002528, "Haley Stevens": 47.90882758327433, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.129451746700388 } }, { "county": "Clare", "cid": "fips:26035", "reporting": 24.98, "current_votes": 650, "estimated_remaining_votes": 2166.541410974669, "projected_remaining_leader": "Haley Stevens", "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 42.347107725855295, "Haley Stevens": 52.76817782132552, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.884714452819174 } }, { "county": "Barry", "cid": "fips:26015", "reporting": 51.57000000000001, "current_votes": 3040, "estimated_remaining_votes": 2084.356984925492, "projected_remaining_leader": "Haley Stevens", "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 42.83028608050756, "Haley Stevens": 51.892089989216686, "Mallory McMorrow": 5.277623930275756 } }, { "county": "Montcalm", "cid": "fips:26117", "reporting": 63.12, "current_votes": 3207, "estimated_remaining_votes": 2083.0147443372043, "projected_remaining_leader": "Haley Stevens", "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 41.79829673402546, "Haley Stevens": 54.30649730939293, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.895205956581607 } }, { "county": "Alpena", "cid": "fips:26007", "reporting": 58.050000000000004, "current_votes": 2009, "estimated_remaining_votes": 1885.4507611674162, "projected_remaining_leader": "Abdul El-Sayed", "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 48.51290422642425, "Haley Stevens": 45.999227798235275, "Mallory McMorrow": 5.487867975340476 } }, { "county": "Gogebic", "cid": "fips:26053", "reporting": 12.08, "current_votes": 281, "estimated_remaining_votes": 1803.7504679250023, "projected_remaining_leader": "Abdul El-Sayed", "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 48.02886135645555, "Haley Stevens": 46.037019583785735, "Mallory McMorrow": 5.934119059758729 } }, { "county": "Iron", "cid": "fips:26071", "reporting": 0.0, "current_votes": 0, "estimated_remaining_votes": 1664.049750378701, "projected_remaining_leader": "Haley Stevens", "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 47.2783350420612, "Haley Stevens": 48.45566543288988, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.265999525048927 } }, { "county": "Sanilac", "cid": "fips:26151", "reporting": 47.64, "current_votes": 1531, "estimated_remaining_votes": 1585.2325585258732, "projected_remaining_leader": "Haley Stevens", "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 40.28906453972078, "Haley Stevens": 55.79910347771211, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.9118319825671213 } }, { "county": "Wexford", "cid": "fips:26165", "reporting": 44.65, "current_votes": 1194, "estimated_remaining_votes": 1555.6611022108018, "projected_remaining_leader": "Haley Stevens", "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 45.761477797501136, "Haley Stevens": 50.06211710609122, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.176405096407641 } }, { "county": "Arenac", "cid": "fips:26011", "reporting": 0.0, "current_votes": 0, "estimated_remaining_votes": 1502.2465186291217, "projected_remaining_leader": "Haley Stevens", "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 47.33230323808073, "Haley Stevens": 48.48382112944863, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.18387563247064 } }, { "county": "Eaton", "cid": "fips:26045", "reporting": 92.34, "current_votes": 15102, "estimated_remaining_votes": 1484.270588417996, "projected_remaining_leader": "Abdul El-Sayed", "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 47.78362957510546, "Haley Stevens": 46.45089621419219, "Mallory McMorrow": 5.765474210702365 } }, { "county": "Presque Isle", "cid": "fips:26141", "reporting": 21.17, "current_votes": 344, "estimated_remaining_votes": 1451.5801453614304, "projected_remaining_leader": "Haley Stevens", "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 39.624538165771185, "Haley Stevens": 55.68716528960278, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.6882965446260405 } }, { "county": "Gratiot", "cid": "fips:26057", "reporting": 52.459999999999994, "current_votes": 1835, "estimated_remaining_votes": 1397.8102766628867, "projected_remaining_leader": "Haley Stevens", "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 42.8943849221791, "Haley Stevens": 51.42757033721348, "Mallory McMorrow": 5.678044740607434 } }, { "county": "Branch", "cid": "fips:26023", "reporting": 45.38, "current_votes": 1514, "estimated_remaining_votes": 1328.9638581037907, "projected_remaining_leader": "Haley Stevens", "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 41.02758409418454, "Haley Stevens": 54.13551283305984, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.836903072755632 } }, { "county": "Cheboygan", "cid": "fips:26031", "reporting": 57.26, "current_votes": 1621, "estimated_remaining_votes": 1277.7034008361702, "projected_remaining_leader": "Haley Stevens", "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 43.50895501995403, "Haley Stevens": 52.13186081141321, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.359184168632757 } }, { "county": "Hillsdale", "cid": "fips:26059", "reporting": 54.47, "current_votes": 1571, "estimated_remaining_votes": 1264.1567787725116, "projected_remaining_leader": "Haley Stevens", "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 45.14441478986888, "Haley Stevens": 49.22047676182145, "Mallory McMorrow": 5.635108448309662 } }, { "county": "Oceana", "cid": "fips:26127", "reporting": 51.29, "current_votes": 1350, "estimated_remaining_votes": 1240.3814241764385, "projected_remaining_leader": "Haley Stevens", "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 41.83983035054953, "Haley Stevens": 54.453285601264014, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.7068840481864567 } }, { "county": "Alger", "cid": "fips:26003", "reporting": 20.65, "current_votes": 291, "estimated_remaining_votes": 1187.3829746305028, "projected_remaining_leader": "Abdul El-Sayed", "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 50.02025726553765, "Haley Stevens": 42.72180194550753, "Mallory McMorrow": 7.25794078895481 } }, { "county": "Ionia", "cid": "fips:26067", "reporting": 53.0, "current_votes": 5141, "estimated_remaining_votes": 1155.4377744995945, "projected_remaining_leader": "Abdul El-Sayed", "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 48.204903729522506, "Haley Stevens": 47.77756542932068, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.017530841156821 } }, { "county": "Schoolcraft", "cid": "fips:26153", "reporting": 0.0, "current_votes": 0, "estimated_remaining_votes": 987.1481570043142, "projected_remaining_leader": "Haley Stevens", "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 47.13166230601737, "Haley Stevens": 48.630375191318585, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.2379625026640415 } }, { "county": "Montmorency", "cid": "fips:26119", "reporting": 0.0, "current_votes": 0, "estimated_remaining_votes": 970.8193904974759, "projected_remaining_leader": "Haley Stevens", "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 47.083022669823315, "Haley Stevens": 48.67077703665312, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.246200293523575 } }, { "county": "Otsego", "cid": "fips:26137", "reporting": 70.99, "current_votes": 1730, "estimated_remaining_votes": 852.2585725086306, "projected_remaining_leader": "Haley Stevens", "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 46.554212542912154, "Haley Stevens": 48.72602310561642, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.719764351471431 } }, { "county": "Ontonagon", "cid": "fips:26131", "reporting": 15.380000000000003, "current_votes": 134, "estimated_remaining_votes": 850.4069201533449, "projected_remaining_leader": "Abdul El-Sayed", "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 48.103667625553726, "Haley Stevens": 46.42961371246579, "Mallory McMorrow": 5.466718661980475 } }, { "county": "Chippewa", "cid": "fips:26033", "reporting": 77.91, "current_votes": 2769, "estimated_remaining_votes": 767.4548380501774, "projected_remaining_leader": "Abdul El-Sayed", "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 47.72547567703806, "Haley Stevens": 46.513059211503226, "Mallory McMorrow": 5.761465111458708 } }, { "county": "Iosco", "cid": "fips:26069", "reporting": 68.61, "current_votes": 3460, "estimated_remaining_votes": 613.2913002151113, "projected_remaining_leader": "Haley Stevens", "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 40.17258303048149, "Haley Stevens": 54.60723617929531, "Mallory McMorrow": 5.220180790223199 } }, { "county": "Lake", "cid": "fips:26085", "reporting": 61.51, "current_votes": 799, "estimated_remaining_votes": 506.3753173110222, "projected_remaining_leader": "Haley Stevens", "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 37.22186813750956, "Haley Stevens": 57.54241538464595, "Mallory McMorrow": 5.235716477844491 } }, { "county": "St. Joseph", "cid": "fips:26149", "reporting": 73.25, "current_votes": 4494, "estimated_remaining_votes": 431.73944174167264, "projected_remaining_leader": "Haley Stevens", "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 46.31166477584951, "Haley Stevens": 48.21811901510307, "Mallory McMorrow": 5.47021620904742 } }, { "county": "Delta", "cid": "fips:26041", "reporting": 89.81, "current_votes": 4266, "estimated_remaining_votes": 396.7759728493211, "projected_remaining_leader": "Abdul El-Sayed", "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 46.84408710175875, "Haley Stevens": 44.25725698840483, "Mallory McMorrow": 8.898655909836409 } }, { "county": "Baraga", "cid": "fips:26013", "reporting": 66.21, "current_votes": 527, "estimated_remaining_votes": 336.3151388567894, "projected_remaining_leader": "Haley Stevens", "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 44.04840225683205, "Haley Stevens": 47.616626965394474, "Mallory McMorrow": 8.334970777773474 } }, { "county": "Crawford", "cid": "fips:26039", "reporting": 81.36, "current_votes": 1135, "estimated_remaining_votes": 288.24888430558144, "projected_remaining_leader": "Haley Stevens", "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 41.04767471746021, "Haley Stevens": 52.58906985892297, "Mallory McMorrow": 6.363255423616818 } }, { "county": "Huron", "cid": "fips:26063", "reporting": 91.36, "current_votes": 2200, "estimated_remaining_votes": 251.93734469721267, "projected_remaining_leader": "Haley Stevens", "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 35.60409417555423, "Haley Stevens": 58.79584650075014, "Mallory McMorrow": 5.600059323695635 } }, { "county": "Kalkaska", "cid": "fips:26079", "reporting": 89.08, "current_votes": 1468, "estimated_remaining_votes": 216.38155288811413, "projected_remaining_leader": "Haley Stevens", "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 46.858171760678005, "Haley Stevens": 47.86995333939609, "Mallory McMorrow": 5.271874899925896 } }, { "county": "Charlevoix", "cid": "fips:26029", "reporting": 96.98, "current_votes": 3339, "estimated_remaining_votes": 160.47713631203942, "projected_remaining_leader": "Abdul El-Sayed", "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 49.416515408281334, "Haley Stevens": 45.82906130924363, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.754423282475039 } }, { "county": "Mackinac", "cid": "fips:26097", "reporting": 93.9, "current_votes": 1446, "estimated_remaining_votes": 87.37128851475677, "projected_remaining_leader": "Haley Stevens", "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 45.49561783551779, "Haley Stevens": 48.7107900291801, "Mallory McMorrow": 5.793592135302112 } }, { "county": "Cass", "cid": "fips:26027", "reporting": 99.0, "current_votes": 3505, "estimated_remaining_votes": 77.55888915228525, "projected_remaining_leader": "Haley Stevens", "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 45.28229790547117, "Haley Stevens": 45.62833013720316, "Mallory McMorrow": 9.089371957325675 } }, { "county": "Missaukee", "cid": "fips:26113", "reporting": 93.37, "current_votes": 943, "estimated_remaining_votes": 70.12569231661234, "projected_remaining_leader": "Haley Stevens", "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 38.18995677997389, "Haley Stevens": 55.43317804283826, "Mallory McMorrow": 6.37686517718784 } }, { "county": "Mecosta", "cid": "fips:26107", "reporting": 98.54, "current_votes": 3431, "estimated_remaining_votes": 69.15789552562956, "projected_remaining_leader": "Haley Stevens", "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 45.12995364233194, "Haley Stevens": 50.424747902765546, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.445298454902523 } }, { "county": "Alcona", "cid": "fips:26001", "reporting": 96.49, "current_votes": 1237, "estimated_remaining_votes": 44.608029818520436, "projected_remaining_leader": "Haley Stevens", "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 42.298347028274776, "Haley Stevens": 49.85468355009293, "Mallory McMorrow": 7.846969421632295 } }, { "county": "Keweenaw", "cid": "fips:26083", "reporting": 92.62, "current_votes": 414, "estimated_remaining_votes": 35.70628898706627, "projected_remaining_leader": "Abdul El-Sayed", "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 51.92238412533457, "Haley Stevens": 42.20293552184021, "Mallory McMorrow": 5.8746803528252265 } }, { "county": "Osceola", "cid": "fips:26133", "reporting": 99.0, "current_votes": 1571, "estimated_remaining_votes": 19.133493263277842, "projected_remaining_leader": "Haley Stevens", "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 41.01581967318032, "Haley Stevens": 52.56906910907158, "Mallory McMorrow": 6.4151112177481 } }, { "county": "Luce", "cid": "fips:26095", "reporting": 99.0, "current_votes": 407, "estimated_remaining_votes": 5.603236249659915, "projected_remaining_leader": "Haley Stevens", "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 43.18651554854869, "Haley Stevens": 49.25512231036174, "Mallory McMorrow": 7.5583621410895585 } }, { "county": "Oscoda", "cid": "fips:26135", "reporting": 99.0, "current_votes": 1082, "estimated_remaining_votes": 0.0, "projected_remaining_leader": "Haley Stevens", "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 38.832278228878046, "Haley Stevens": 57.522327380619664, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.645394390502292 } } ], "method_note": "Patterns are centered within historical races, so the model learns geographic coalition structure rather than historical statewide winners." }, "historical_candidate_geo_projection": { "predicted_leader": "Abdul El-Sayed", "projected_margin_points": 1.9874391116240175, "projection": [ { "name": "Abdul El-Sayed", "party": "Democratic", "color": "#40247a", "major_candidate": true, "current_votes": 282337, "current_share": 0.4966909203498723, "projected_share": 0.490992518770975, "final_votes": 741072, "final_share": 0.4847834647987199, "share_error_points": 0.6209053972255074 }, { "name": "Haley Stevens", "party": "Democratic", "color": "#339933", "major_candidate": true, "current_votes": 265230, "current_share": 0.4665960635849946, "projected_share": 0.4711181276547348, "final_votes": 726340, "final_share": 0.4751463040324047, "share_error_points": -0.402817637766989 }, { "name": "Mallory McMorrow", "party": "Democratic", "color": "#009f8e", "major_candidate": true, "current_votes": 20869, "current_share": 0.0367130160651331, "projected_share": 0.03788935357429025, "final_votes": 61254, "final_share": 0.04007023116887535, "share_error_points": -0.2180877594585101 } ] }, "latent_coalition": { "available": true, "historical_patterns": 10, "factors": 4, "training_counties": 65, "training_evidence": 1.0, "cross_validation_available": true, "cross_validation_counties": 65, "cross_validation_mae_points": 4.9638152794908645, "cross_validation_score": 0.3705514209458427, "confidence": 0.5908584236147978, "max_ensemble_influence": 0.2527090325013272, "estimated_remaining_votes": 944947.4966413771, "factor_names": [ "factor_1", "factor_2", "factor_3", "factor_4" ], "counties": [ { "cid": "fips:26093", "county": "Livingston", "reporting": 80.73, "current_votes": 21490, "estimated_remaining_votes": 5033.181154902108, "prediction_informative": true, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 50.5170309776904, "Haley Stevens": 45.610506441416895, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.872462580892708 } }, { "cid": "fips:26025", "county": "Calhoun", "reporting": 7.2700000000000005, "current_votes": 918, "estimated_remaining_votes": 11811.954356962822, "prediction_informative": true, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 47.59839500429465, "Haley Stevens": 47.82944807244328, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.5721569232620745 } }, { "cid": "fips:26147", "county": "St. Clair", "reporting": 34.81, "current_votes": 6209, "estimated_remaining_votes": 10755.18585599924, "prediction_informative": true, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 45.4446743613254, "Haley Stevens": 50.27798191583492, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.2773437228396824 } }, { "cid": "fips:26089", "county": "Leelanau", "reporting": 15.83, "current_votes": 903, "estimated_remaining_votes": 5496.342097041341, "prediction_informative": true, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 51.09018185144313, "Haley Stevens": 45.179787420550646, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.7300307280062235 } }, { "cid": "fips:26127", "county": "Oceana", "reporting": 51.29, "current_votes": 1350, "estimated_remaining_votes": 1240.3814241764385, "prediction_informative": true, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 41.911235509734134, "Haley Stevens": 54.32288246043064, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.7658820298352254 } }, { "cid": "fips:26157", "county": "Tuscola", "reporting": 41.07, "current_votes": 2125, "estimated_remaining_votes": 2618.943835602582, "prediction_informative": true, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 41.16761764779243, "Haley Stevens": 53.00831006836404, "Mallory McMorrow": 5.8240722838435275 } }, { "cid": "fips:26027", "county": "Cass", "reporting": 99.0, "current_votes": 3505, "estimated_remaining_votes": 77.55888915228525, "prediction_informative": true, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 45.40801543306597, "Haley Stevens": 45.58650798535755, "Mallory McMorrow": 9.005476581576488 } }, { "cid": "fips:26021", "county": "Berrien", "reporting": 9.46, "current_votes": 1294, "estimated_remaining_votes": 15056.65577827919, "prediction_informative": true, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 51.65086351889682, "Haley Stevens": 43.59630731765034, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.75282916345284 } }, { "cid": "fips:26083", "county": "Keweenaw", "reporting": 92.62, "current_votes": 414, "estimated_remaining_votes": 35.70628898706627, "prediction_informative": true, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 51.820927830312144, "Haley Stevens": 42.315370252318736, "Mallory McMorrow": 5.863701917369119 } }, { "cid": "fips:26087", "county": "Lapeer", "reporting": 7.41, "current_votes": 685, "estimated_remaining_votes": 8180.641770206288, "prediction_informative": true, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 45.63792136844839, "Haley Stevens": 50.12466619047022, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.2374124410813865 } }, { "cid": "fips:26019", "county": "Benzie", "reporting": 24.01, "current_votes": 765, "estimated_remaining_votes": 3174.612088011311, "prediction_informative": true, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 52.8536563761965, "Haley Stevens": 43.03554510053726, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.110798523266248 } }, { "cid": "fips:26061", "county": "Houghton", "reporting": 25.489999999999995, "current_votes": 1059, "estimated_remaining_votes": 3345.74264210606, "prediction_informative": true, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 49.37182055245163, "Haley Stevens": 45.17072763700284, "Mallory McMorrow": 5.4574518105455185 } }, { "cid": "fips:26163", "county": "Wayne", "reporting": 22.97, "current_votes": 69886, "estimated_remaining_votes": 243867.3379252507, "prediction_informative": true, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 41.81777304861808, "Haley Stevens": 54.23378374217225, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.9484432092096804 } }, { "cid": "fips:26037", "county": "Clinton", "reporting": 0.11, "current_votes": 11, "estimated_remaining_votes": 12041.099798507375, "prediction_informative": true, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 49.39798365776477, "Haley Stevens": 46.44704578008658, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.154970562148655 } }, { "cid": "fips:26015", "county": "Barry", "reporting": 51.57000000000001, "current_votes": 3040, "estimated_remaining_votes": 2084.356984925492, "prediction_informative": true, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 42.67271279153954, "Haley Stevens": 51.96069488959941, "Mallory McMorrow": 5.366592318861058 } }, { "cid": "fips:26153", "county": "Schoolcraft", "reporting": 0.0, "current_votes": 0, "estimated_remaining_votes": 987.1481570043142, "prediction_informative": true, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 48.617966113525576, "Haley Stevens": 47.08816408022341, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.293869806251021 } }, { "cid": "fips:26165", "county": "Wexford", "reporting": 44.65, "current_votes": 1194, "estimated_remaining_votes": 1555.6611022108018, "prediction_informative": true, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 45.51567274918501, "Haley Stevens": 50.20614756311912, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.278179687695886 } }, { "cid": "fips:26133", "county": "Osceola", "reporting": 99.0, "current_votes": 1571, "estimated_remaining_votes": 19.133493263277842, "prediction_informative": true, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 41.18144934909113, "Haley Stevens": 52.43096686851592, "Mallory McMorrow": 6.387583782392962 } }, { "cid": "fips:26055", "county": "Grand Traverse", "reporting": 6.860000000000001, "current_votes": 1147, "estimated_remaining_votes": 11235.868104134455, "prediction_informative": true, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 52.247625174698065, "Haley Stevens": 43.8777147380898, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.874660087212149 } }, { "cid": "fips:26067", "county": "Ionia", "reporting": 53.0, "current_votes": 5141, "estimated_remaining_votes": 1155.4377744995945, "prediction_informative": true, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 47.997461514048126, "Haley Stevens": 47.890791946369326, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.11174653958255 } }, { "cid": "fips:26135", "county": "Oscoda", "reporting": 99.0, "current_votes": 1082, "estimated_remaining_votes": 0.0, "prediction_informative": true, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 39.131395792170956, "Haley Stevens": 57.1951759752831, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.6734282325459646 } }, { "cid": "fips:26145", "county": "Saginaw", "reporting": 16.6, "current_votes": 4432, "estimated_remaining_votes": 24686.364928707186, "prediction_informative": true, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 46.68829917094062, "Haley Stevens": 48.82896195758723, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.482738871472158 } }, { "cid": "fips:26029", "county": "Charlevoix", "reporting": 96.98, "current_votes": 3339, "estimated_remaining_votes": 160.47713631203942, "prediction_informative": true, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 49.36330565855347, "Haley Stevens": 45.86771363442358, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.768980707022943 } }, { "cid": "fips:26139", "county": "Ottawa", "reporting": 38.53, "current_votes": 9627, "estimated_remaining_votes": 14785.060276468925, "prediction_informative": true, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 51.73470953377476, "Haley Stevens": 43.81589495595599, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.449395510269255 } }, { "cid": "fips:26073", "county": "Isabella", "reporting": 23.48, "current_votes": 1752, "estimated_remaining_votes": 6240.3953919174755, "prediction_informative": true, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 48.49216129724504, "Haley Stevens": 46.728591201814595, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.779247500940362 } }, { "cid": "fips:26005", "county": "Allegan", "reporting": 0.0, "current_votes": 0, "estimated_remaining_votes": 12233.214980259478, "prediction_informative": true, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 48.63058507355841, "Haley Stevens": 47.077806694930565, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.291608231511022 } }, { "cid": "fips:26017", "county": "Bay", "reporting": 5.77, "current_votes": 926, "estimated_remaining_votes": 15508.356874900292, "prediction_informative": true, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 48.574083049587074, "Haley Stevens": 46.97258514894684, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.453331801466067 } }, { "cid": "fips:26155", "county": "Shiawassee", "reporting": 44.43, "current_votes": 3588, "estimated_remaining_votes": 4949.64208510183, "prediction_informative": true, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 42.646784616550725, "Haley Stevens": 51.40711519838258, "Mallory McMorrow": 5.946100185066694 } }, { "cid": "fips:26071", "county": "Iron", "reporting": 0.0, "current_votes": 0, "estimated_remaining_votes": 1664.049750378701, "prediction_informative": true, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 48.62305493299832, "Haley Stevens": 47.08398728088115, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.2929577861205175 } }, { "cid": "fips:26111", "county": "Midland", "reporting": 38.17, "current_votes": 3780, "estimated_remaining_votes": 7037.057104082069, "prediction_informative": true, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 44.785688346137334, "Haley Stevens": 50.66481614625559, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.54949550760708 } }, { "cid": "fips:26001", "county": "Alcona", "reporting": 96.49, "current_votes": 1237, "estimated_remaining_votes": 44.608029818520436, "prediction_informative": true, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 42.54648720220722, "Haley Stevens": 49.67511721157754, "Mallory McMorrow": 7.778395586215242 } }, { "cid": "fips:26045", "county": "Eaton", "reporting": 92.34, "current_votes": 15102, "estimated_remaining_votes": 1484.270588417996, "prediction_informative": true, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 47.78647316105793, "Haley Stevens": 46.46207261786534, "Mallory McMorrow": 5.751454221076738 } }, { "cid": "fips:26105", "county": "Mason", "reporting": 20.12, "current_votes": 718, "estimated_remaining_votes": 2726.660439539037, "prediction_informative": true, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 48.602566812885385, "Haley Stevens": 46.71620876204783, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.681224425066796 } }, { "cid": "fips:26107", "county": "Mecosta", "reporting": 98.54, "current_votes": 3431, "estimated_remaining_votes": 69.15789552562956, "prediction_informative": true, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 45.12899740998638, "Haley Stevens": 50.402330443057785, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.468672146955823 } }, { "cid": "fips:26137", "county": "Otsego", "reporting": 70.99, "current_votes": 1730, "estimated_remaining_votes": 852.2585725086306, "prediction_informative": true, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 46.47161451790356, "Haley Stevens": 48.76149524806011, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.766890234036334 } }, { "cid": "fips:26159", "county": "Van Buren", "reporting": 21.44, "current_votes": 1748, "estimated_remaining_votes": 6516.409355732236, "prediction_informative": true, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 47.04534918111606, "Haley Stevens": 48.61155890729596, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.343091911587984 } }, { "cid": "fips:26013", "county": "Baraga", "reporting": 66.21, "current_votes": 527, "estimated_remaining_votes": 336.3151388567894, "prediction_informative": true, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 44.11358196112403, "Haley Stevens": 47.521985054173356, "Mallory McMorrow": 8.364432984702614 } }, { "cid": "fips:26091", "county": "Lenawee", "reporting": 0.0, "current_votes": 0, "estimated_remaining_votes": 9669.598638685868, "prediction_informative": true, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 48.644802415575185, "Haley Stevens": 47.06613739027119, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.28906019415363 } }, { "cid": "fips:26051", "county": "Gladwin", "reporting": 0.0, "current_votes": 0, "estimated_remaining_votes": 2590.3361413120724, "prediction_informative": true, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 48.61949336032418, "Haley Stevens": 47.086910547167655, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.293596092508172 } }, { "cid": "fips:26023", "county": "Branch", "reporting": 45.38, "current_votes": 1514, "estimated_remaining_votes": 1328.9638581037907, "prediction_informative": true, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 41.10233071904945, "Haley Stevens": 53.98259675019246, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.915072530758089 } }, { "cid": "fips:26101", "county": "Manistee", "reporting": 0.0, "current_votes": 0, "estimated_remaining_votes": 3791.242696224088, "prediction_informative": true, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 48.62263854885517, "Haley Stevens": 47.08432904050234, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.293032410642494 } }, { "cid": "fips:26063", "county": "Huron", "reporting": 91.36, "current_votes": 2200, "estimated_remaining_votes": 251.93734469721267, "prediction_informative": true, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 35.951848457757606, "Haley Stevens": 58.46406547139098, "Mallory McMorrow": 5.584086070851414 } }, { "cid": "fips:26131", "county": "Ontonagon", "reporting": 15.380000000000003, "current_votes": 134, "estimated_remaining_votes": 850.4069201533449, "prediction_informative": true, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 48.578054438050465, "Haley Stevens": 45.8859638140725, "Mallory McMorrow": 5.535981747877041 } }, { "cid": "fips:26049", "county": "Genesee", "reporting": 3.4300000000000006, "current_votes": 2213, "estimated_remaining_votes": 64183.37937851738, "prediction_informative": true, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 49.14288443805003, "Haley Stevens": 46.71653783658694, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.140577725363034 } }, { "cid": "fips:26075", "county": "Jackson", "reporting": 3.46, "current_votes": 581, "estimated_remaining_votes": 15316.60702633344, "prediction_informative": true, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 47.71814723640196, "Haley Stevens": 47.98839136168706, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.293461401910989 } }, { "cid": "fips:26039", "county": "Crawford", "reporting": 81.36, "current_votes": 1135, "estimated_remaining_votes": 288.24888430558144, "prediction_informative": true, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 41.09725829809444, "Haley Stevens": 52.52578376739543, "Mallory McMorrow": 6.376957934510146 } }, { "cid": "fips:26065", "county": "Ingham", "reporting": 34.23, "current_votes": 18881, "estimated_remaining_votes": 38632.62316125496, "prediction_informative": true, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 58.48473953791073, "Haley Stevens": 37.54853056934637, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.9667298927429075 } }, { "cid": "fips:26085", "county": "Lake", "reporting": 61.51, "current_votes": 799, "estimated_remaining_votes": 506.3753173110222, "prediction_informative": true, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 37.57792374035572, "Haley Stevens": 57.17660491498443, "Mallory McMorrow": 5.245471344659849 } }, { "cid": "fips:26103", "county": "Marquette", "reporting": 0.0, "current_votes": 0, "estimated_remaining_votes": 13575.142700457824, "prediction_informative": true, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 48.68290842014063, "Haley Stevens": 47.03486075810594, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.2822308217534255 } }, { "cid": "fips:26077", "county": "Kalamazoo", "reporting": 3.45, "current_votes": 1425, "estimated_remaining_votes": 42085.15108479823, "prediction_informative": true, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 48.400741425936125, "Haley Stevens": 47.213231349773146, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.386027224290733 } }, { "cid": "fips:26125", "county": "Oakland", "reporting": 76.49, "current_votes": 189661, "estimated_remaining_votes": 58294.288272976875, "prediction_informative": true, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 47.653476733736674, "Haley Stevens": 49.42522976606698, "Mallory McMorrow": 2.9212935001963487 } }, { "cid": "name:gd_traverse", "county": "name:gd_traverse", "reporting": 0.0, "current_votes": 0, "estimated_remaining_votes": 5156.92134952329, "prediction_informative": true, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 48.687409486538, "Haley Stevens": 47.031166374512935, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.281424138949067 } }, { "cid": "fips:26119", "county": "Montmorency", "reporting": 0.0, "current_votes": 0, "estimated_remaining_votes": 970.8193904974759, "prediction_informative": true, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 48.57596743374876, "Haley Stevens": 47.12263574089172, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.301396825359529 } }, { "cid": "fips:26141", "county": "Presque Isle", "reporting": 21.17, "current_votes": 344, "estimated_remaining_votes": 1451.5801453614304, "prediction_informative": true, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 40.53828468373477, "Haley Stevens": 54.73206617067146, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.729649145593781 } }, { "cid": "fips:26069", "county": "Iosco", "reporting": 68.61, "current_votes": 3460, "estimated_remaining_votes": 613.2913002151113, "prediction_informative": true, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 40.37330442187134, "Haley Stevens": 54.38792539579755, "Mallory McMorrow": 5.238770182331089 } }, { "cid": "fips:26081", "county": "Kent", "reporting": 53.71, "current_votes": 44593, "estimated_remaining_votes": 46918.32971673878, "prediction_informative": true, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 60.416307187214244, "Haley Stevens": 35.742270165590874, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.841422647194886 } }, { "cid": "fips:26115", "county": "Monroe", "reporting": 20.1, "current_votes": 3167, "estimated_remaining_votes": 13427.800539038479, "prediction_informative": true, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 46.7299326824402, "Haley Stevens": 48.5522368894747, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.717830428085103 } }, { "cid": "fips:26113", "county": "Missaukee", "reporting": 93.37, "current_votes": 943, "estimated_remaining_votes": 70.12569231661234, "prediction_informative": true, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 38.45645265024404, "Haley Stevens": 55.19682961902378, "Mallory McMorrow": 6.346717730732197 } }, { "cid": "fips:26095", "county": "Luce", "reporting": 99.0, "current_votes": 407, "estimated_remaining_votes": 5.603236249659915, "prediction_informative": true, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 43.340283963695725, "Haley Stevens": 49.1544897512968, "Mallory McMorrow": 7.505226285007471 } }, { "cid": "fips:26117", "county": "Montcalm", "reporting": 63.12, "current_votes": 3207, "estimated_remaining_votes": 2083.0147443372043, "prediction_informative": true, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 41.70665252260565, "Haley Stevens": 54.33985285440617, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.9534946229881887 } }, { "cid": "fips:26151", "county": "Sanilac", "reporting": 47.64, "current_votes": 1531, "estimated_remaining_votes": 1585.2325585258732, "prediction_informative": true, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 40.35271952575981, "Haley Stevens": 55.6572799735479, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.9900005006922976 } }, { "cid": "fips:26129", "county": "Ogemaw", "reporting": 0.0, "current_votes": 0, "estimated_remaining_votes": 2287.5117442761625, "prediction_informative": true, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 48.61102845879539, "Haley Stevens": 47.09385836587627, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.295113175328331 } }, { "cid": "fips:26033", "county": "Chippewa", "reporting": 77.91, "current_votes": 2769, "estimated_remaining_votes": 767.4548380501774, "prediction_informative": true, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 47.656018800674616, "Haley Stevens": 46.54894093834005, "Mallory McMorrow": 5.79504026098533 } }, { "cid": "fips:26043", "county": "Dickinson", "reporting": 0.0, "current_votes": 0, "estimated_remaining_votes": 2771.437006206097, "prediction_informative": true, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 48.64153177077273, "Haley Stevens": 47.068821868888044, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.289646360339236 } }, { "cid": "fips:26161", "county": "Washtenaw", "reporting": 64.95, "current_votes": 58927, "estimated_remaining_votes": 36375.12128089261, "prediction_informative": true, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 61.11075224892601, "Haley Stevens": 35.495106427632415, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.394141323441582 } }, { "cid": "fips:26007", "county": "Alpena", "reporting": 58.050000000000004, "current_votes": 2009, "estimated_remaining_votes": 1885.4507611674162, "prediction_informative": true, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 48.664801362986694, "Haley Stevens": 45.7996181340153, "Mallory McMorrow": 5.535580502998013 } }, { "cid": "fips:26003", "county": "Alger", "reporting": 20.65, "current_votes": 291, "estimated_remaining_votes": 1187.3829746305028, "prediction_informative": true, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 50.26146088842416, "Haley Stevens": 42.39889075222942, "Mallory McMorrow": 7.33964835934642 } }, { "cid": "fips:26079", "county": "Kalkaska", "reporting": 89.08, "current_votes": 1468, "estimated_remaining_votes": 216.38155288811413, "prediction_informative": true, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 46.85831291202122, "Haley Stevens": 47.86908401511618, "Mallory McMorrow": 5.272603072862605 } }, { "cid": "fips:26149", "county": "St. Joseph", "reporting": 73.25, "current_votes": 4494, "estimated_remaining_votes": 431.73944174167264, "prediction_informative": true, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 46.24409796857976, "Haley Stevens": 48.24337335375889, "Mallory McMorrow": 5.512528677661358 } }, { "cid": "fips:26047", "county": "Emmet", "reporting": 50.16, "current_votes": 2353, "estimated_remaining_votes": 2782.232900489893, "prediction_informative": true, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 52.53487302894582, "Haley Stevens": 42.42043196258343, "Mallory McMorrow": 5.044695008470751 } }, { "cid": "fips:26121", "county": "Muskegon", "reporting": 0.0, "current_votes": 0, "estimated_remaining_votes": 24944.417489173677, "prediction_informative": true, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 48.64212906549235, "Haley Stevens": 47.06833162155162, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.289539312956035 } }, { "cid": "fips:26059", "county": "Hillsdale", "reporting": 54.47, "current_votes": 1571, "estimated_remaining_votes": 1264.1567787725116, "prediction_informative": true, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 45.248458950393676, "Haley Stevens": 49.07030214621338, "Mallory McMorrow": 5.681238903392946 } }, { "cid": "fips:26143", "county": "Roscommon", "reporting": 15.72, "current_votes": 484, "estimated_remaining_votes": 2732.255070860492, "prediction_informative": true, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 42.682042825232806, "Haley Stevens": 52.758290989164806, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.559666185602396 } }, { "cid": "fips:26099", "county": "Macomb", "reporting": 27.41, "current_votes": 31576, "estimated_remaining_votes": 87051.54937106233, "prediction_informative": true, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 52.77596772822014, "Haley Stevens": 43.74434821494352, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.4796840568363367 } }, { "cid": "fips:26031", "county": "Cheboygan", "reporting": 57.26, "current_votes": 1621, "estimated_remaining_votes": 1277.7034008361702, "prediction_informative": true, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 43.66186543938543, "Haley Stevens": 51.931799241623125, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.406335318991444 } }, { "cid": "fips:26035", "county": "Clare", "reporting": 24.98, "current_votes": 650, "estimated_remaining_votes": 2166.541410974669, "prediction_informative": true, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 42.38657694241643, "Haley Stevens": 52.62028742019553, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.993135637388043 } }, { "cid": "fips:26097", "county": "Mackinac", "reporting": 93.9, "current_votes": 1446, "estimated_remaining_votes": 87.37128851475677, "prediction_informative": true, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 45.56736770132184, "Haley Stevens": 48.650579926539905, "Mallory McMorrow": 5.782052372138249 } }, { "cid": "fips:26123", "county": "Newaygo", "reporting": 11.7, "current_votes": 474, "estimated_remaining_votes": 3200.745116245081, "prediction_informative": true, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 45.202228868100505, "Haley Stevens": 50.170049809336945, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.62772132256255 } }, { "cid": "fips:26009", "county": "Antrim", "reporting": 0.0, "current_votes": 0, "estimated_remaining_votes": 3308.801867612957, "prediction_informative": true, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 48.62331101923895, "Haley Stevens": 47.08377709051243, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.292911890248626 } }, { "cid": "fips:26053", "county": "Gogebic", "reporting": 12.08, "current_votes": 281, "estimated_remaining_votes": 1803.7504679250023, "prediction_informative": true, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 48.65870176242218, "Haley Stevens": 45.32273269898589, "Mallory McMorrow": 6.0185655385919326 } }, { "cid": "fips:26109", "county": "Menominee", "reporting": 0.0, "current_votes": 0, "estimated_remaining_votes": 2394.3909432300134, "prediction_informative": true, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 48.61621551512684, "Haley Stevens": 47.08960093572192, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.294183549151242 } }, { "cid": "fips:26011", "county": "Arenac", "reporting": 0.0, "current_votes": 0, "estimated_remaining_votes": 1502.2465186291217, "prediction_informative": true, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 48.603411032552614, "Haley Stevens": 47.100110594136844, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.296478373310548 } }, { "cid": "fips:26057", "county": "Gratiot", "reporting": 52.459999999999994, "current_votes": 1835, "estimated_remaining_votes": 1397.8102766628867, "prediction_informative": true, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 42.85593752707024, "Haley Stevens": 51.38269616514701, "Mallory McMorrow": 5.761366307782756 } }, { "cid": "fips:26041", "county": "Delta", "reporting": 89.81, "current_votes": 4266, "estimated_remaining_votes": 396.7759728493211, "prediction_informative": true, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 46.95071343780952, "Haley Stevens": 44.24442757599384, "Mallory McMorrow": 8.804858986196646 } } ] }, "latent_coalition_projection": { "predicted_leader": "Abdul El-Sayed", "projected_margin_points": 1.730936529206023, "projection": [ { "name": "Abdul El-Sayed", "party": "Democratic", "color": "#40247a", "major_candidate": true, "current_votes": 282337, "current_share": 0.4966909203498723, "projected_share": 0.48915283796936215, "final_votes": 741072, "final_share": 0.4847834647987199, "share_error_points": 0.43693731706422323 }, { "name": "Haley Stevens", "party": "Democratic", "color": "#339933", "major_candidate": true, "current_votes": 265230, "current_share": 0.4665960635849946, "projected_share": 0.4718434726773019, "final_votes": 726340, "final_share": 0.4751463040324047, "share_error_points": -0.33028313551027866 }, { "name": "Mallory McMorrow", "party": "Democratic", "color": "#009f8e", "major_candidate": true, "current_votes": 20869, "current_share": 0.0367130160651331, "projected_share": 0.03900368935333577, "final_votes": 61254, "final_share": 0.04007023116887535, "share_error_points": -0.10665418155395776 } ] }, "batch_bias": { "available": true, "informative_counties": 14, "informative_electorate_votes": 277696.91588279046, "confidence": 0.37665726543829686, "internal_validation_available": true, "internal_validation_mae_points": 9.328001441192093, "internal_validation_score": 0.18341567350639373, "max_ensemble_influence": 0.13546403432272314, "counties": [ { "cid": "fips:26125", "county": "Oakland", "reporting": 76.49, "current_votes": 189661, "estimated_remaining_votes": 58294.288272976875, "prediction_informative": false, "local_confidence": 0.0, "persistence": 0.0, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 47.941843251324954, "Haley Stevens": 49.143585240570665, "Mallory McMorrow": 2.9145715081043764 } }, { "cid": "fips:26163", "county": "Wayne", "reporting": 22.97, "current_votes": 69886, "estimated_remaining_votes": 243867.3379252507, "prediction_informative": false, "local_confidence": 0.0, "persistence": 0.0, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 42.31967189156294, "Haley Stevens": 54.04792844150032, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.632399666936749 } }, { "cid": "fips:26161", "county": "Washtenaw", "reporting": 64.95, "current_votes": 58927, "estimated_remaining_votes": 36375.12128089261, "prediction_informative": false, "local_confidence": 0.0, "persistence": 0.0, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 61.20946454543993, "Haley Stevens": 35.51075270720484, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.279782747355236 } }, { "cid": "fips:26081", "county": "Kent", "reporting": 53.71, "current_votes": 44593, "estimated_remaining_votes": 46918.32971673878, "prediction_informative": true, "local_confidence": 0.7491356130011886, "persistence": 0.85, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 53.64498248721789, "Haley Stevens": 41.75138119209393, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.60363632068819 } }, { "cid": "fips:26099", "county": "Macomb", "reporting": 27.41, "current_votes": 31576, "estimated_remaining_votes": 87051.54937106233, "prediction_informative": false, "local_confidence": 0.0, "persistence": 0.0, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 53.25626067739654, "Haley Stevens": 43.55700290848847, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.1867364141149843 } }, { "cid": "fips:26093", "county": "Livingston", "reporting": 80.73, "current_votes": 21490, "estimated_remaining_votes": 5033.181154902108, "prediction_informative": false, "local_confidence": 0.0, "persistence": 0.0, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 50.51827629438693, "Haley Stevens": 45.68743546434764, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.794288241265435 } }, { "cid": "fips:26065", "county": "Ingham", "reporting": 34.23, "current_votes": 18881, "estimated_remaining_votes": 38632.62316125496, "prediction_informative": true, "local_confidence": 0.6368673331236263, "persistence": -0.6, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 60.54235509880237, "Haley Stevens": 36.07851212175852, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.379132779439102 } }, { "cid": "fips:26045", "county": "Eaton", "reporting": 92.34, "current_votes": 15102, "estimated_remaining_votes": 1484.270588417996, "prediction_informative": true, "local_confidence": 0.3306396401925617, "persistence": 0.85, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 46.773765198979675, "Haley Stevens": 47.38088612071195, "Mallory McMorrow": 5.8453486803083665 } }, { "cid": "fips:26139", "county": "Ottawa", "reporting": 38.53, "current_votes": 9627, "estimated_remaining_votes": 14785.060276468925, "prediction_informative": true, "local_confidence": 0.5162578934062342, "persistence": 0.4739200434226183, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 52.04040314097645, "Haley Stevens": 43.88538393519628, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.074212923827272 } }, { "cid": "fips:26147", "county": "St. Clair", "reporting": 34.81, "current_votes": 6209, "estimated_remaining_votes": 10755.18585599924, "prediction_informative": true, "local_confidence": 0.4692523413364173, "persistence": -0.03500425697530413, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 45.883952522590235, "Haley Stevens": 50.092154587608526, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.023892889801225 } }, { "cid": "fips:26067", "county": "Ionia", "reporting": 53.0, "current_votes": 5141, "estimated_remaining_votes": 1155.4377744995945, "prediction_informative": false, "local_confidence": 0.0, "persistence": 0.0, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 48.27441469704925, "Haley Stevens": 47.78156797033624, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.9440173326145045 } }, { "cid": "fips:26149", "county": "St. Joseph", "reporting": 73.25, "current_votes": 4494, "estimated_remaining_votes": 431.73944174167264, "prediction_informative": false, "local_confidence": 0.0, "persistence": 0.0, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 46.604935451946275, "Haley Stevens": 48.08581535269678, "Mallory McMorrow": 5.309249195356957 } }, { "cid": "fips:26145", "county": "Saginaw", "reporting": 16.6, "current_votes": 4432, "estimated_remaining_votes": 24686.364928707186, "prediction_informative": true, "local_confidence": 0.39846117860024627, "persistence": 0.35893168186372526, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 46.78335018977476, "Haley Stevens": 48.9369797536575, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.279670056567751 } }, { "cid": "fips:26041", "county": "Delta", "reporting": 89.81, "current_votes": 4266, "estimated_remaining_votes": 396.7759728493211, "prediction_informative": false, "local_confidence": 0.0, "persistence": 0.0, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 47.34591404694118, "Haley Stevens": 44.47491236405807, "Mallory McMorrow": 8.179173589000738 } }, { "cid": "fips:26111", "county": "Midland", "reporting": 38.17, "current_votes": 3780, "estimated_remaining_votes": 7037.057104082069, "prediction_informative": true, "local_confidence": 0.3589130256761379, "persistence": -0.6, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 44.626102535934336, "Haley Stevens": 50.98453019794667, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.389367266119 } }, { "cid": "fips:26155", "county": "Shiawassee", "reporting": 44.43, "current_votes": 3588, "estimated_remaining_votes": 4949.64208510183, "prediction_informative": true, "local_confidence": 0.5356770299332195, "persistence": 0.5931048570439347, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 44.259790628958015, "Haley Stevens": 50.45887493297663, "Mallory McMorrow": 5.281334438065356 } }, { "cid": "fips:26027", "county": "Cass", "reporting": 99.0, "current_votes": 3505, "estimated_remaining_votes": 77.55888915228525, "prediction_informative": false, "local_confidence": 0.0, "persistence": 0.0, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 45.973761345656506, "Haley Stevens": 45.66858318325481, "Mallory McMorrow": 8.357655471088682 } }, { "cid": "fips:26069", "county": "Iosco", "reporting": 68.61, "current_votes": 3460, "estimated_remaining_votes": 613.2913002151113, "prediction_informative": false, "local_confidence": 0.0, "persistence": 0.0, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 40.87023459196855, "Haley Stevens": 54.04868427748024, "Mallory McMorrow": 5.081081130551217 } }, { "cid": "fips:26107", "county": "Mecosta", "reporting": 98.54, "current_votes": 3431, "estimated_remaining_votes": 69.15789552562956, "prediction_informative": false, "local_confidence": 0.0, "persistence": 0.0, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 45.725132892570166, "Haley Stevens": 49.94981692894268, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.325050178487157 } }, { "cid": "fips:26029", "county": "Charlevoix", "reporting": 96.98, "current_votes": 3339, "estimated_remaining_votes": 160.47713631203942, "prediction_informative": false, "local_confidence": 0.0, "persistence": 0.0, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 49.49057192601511, "Haley Stevens": 45.917725404673824, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.591702669311049 } }, { "cid": "fips:26117", "county": "Montcalm", "reporting": 63.12, "current_votes": 3207, "estimated_remaining_votes": 2083.0147443372043, "prediction_informative": false, "local_confidence": 0.0, "persistence": 0.0, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 41.917817139626464, "Haley Stevens": 54.255766526156656, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.8264163342168733 } }, { "cid": "fips:26115", "county": "Monroe", "reporting": 20.1, "current_votes": 3167, "estimated_remaining_votes": 13427.800539038479, "prediction_informative": false, "local_confidence": 0.0, "persistence": 0.0, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 47.30470362904123, "Haley Stevens": 48.32000335408305, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.375293016875723 } }, { "cid": "fips:26015", "county": "Barry", "reporting": 51.57000000000001, "current_votes": 3040, "estimated_remaining_votes": 2084.356984925492, "prediction_informative": false, "local_confidence": 0.0, "persistence": 0.0, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 42.96172350897401, "Haley Stevens": 51.84586774604589, "Mallory McMorrow": 5.192408744980101 } }, { "cid": "fips:26033", "county": "Chippewa", "reporting": 77.91, "current_votes": 2769, "estimated_remaining_votes": 767.4548380501774, "prediction_informative": false, "local_confidence": 0.0, "persistence": 0.0, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 47.95476459695772, "Haley Stevens": 46.51501986324919, "Mallory McMorrow": 5.530215539793092 } }, { "cid": "fips:26047", "county": "Emmet", "reporting": 50.16, "current_votes": 2353, "estimated_remaining_votes": 2782.232900489893, "prediction_informative": false, "local_confidence": 0.0, "persistence": 0.0, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 52.83813811247376, "Haley Stevens": 42.298197176590925, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.863664710935314 } }, { "cid": "fips:26049", "county": "Genesee", "reporting": 3.4300000000000006, "current_votes": 2213, "estimated_remaining_votes": 64183.37937851738, "prediction_informative": false, "local_confidence": 0.0, "persistence": 0.0, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 49.98562689180982, "Haley Stevens": 46.37860482872086, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.635768279469321 } }, { "cid": "fips:26063", "county": "Huron", "reporting": 91.36, "current_votes": 2200, "estimated_remaining_votes": 251.93734469721267, "prediction_informative": false, "local_confidence": 0.0, "persistence": 0.0, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 37.57018204336108, "Haley Stevens": 57.11373945351808, "Mallory McMorrow": 5.316078503120844 } }, { "cid": "fips:26157", "county": "Tuscola", "reporting": 41.07, "current_votes": 2125, "estimated_remaining_votes": 2618.943835602582, "prediction_informative": false, "local_confidence": 0.0, "persistence": 0.0, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 41.54245341627252, "Haley Stevens": 52.856586235755344, "Mallory McMorrow": 5.600960347972139 } }, { "cid": "fips:26007", "county": "Alpena", "reporting": 58.050000000000004, "current_votes": 2009, "estimated_remaining_votes": 1885.4507611674162, "prediction_informative": false, "local_confidence": 0.0, "persistence": 0.0, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 48.91621035039038, "Haley Stevens": 45.69664382177678, "Mallory McMorrow": 5.38714582783284 } }, { "cid": "fips:26057", "county": "Gratiot", "reporting": 52.459999999999994, "current_votes": 1835, "estimated_remaining_votes": 1397.8102766628867, "prediction_informative": true, "local_confidence": 0.2017713865076102, "persistence": -0.13285082357806402, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 43.23747215440217, "Haley Stevens": 51.15532348840621, "Mallory McMorrow": 5.6072043571916215 } }, { "cid": "fips:26073", "county": "Isabella", "reporting": 23.48, "current_votes": 1752, "estimated_remaining_votes": 6240.3953919174755, "prediction_informative": false, "local_confidence": 0.0, "persistence": 0.0, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 48.999708481296324, "Haley Stevens": 46.53580242038349, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.464489098320168 } }, { "cid": "fips:26159", "county": "Van Buren", "reporting": 21.44, "current_votes": 1748, "estimated_remaining_votes": 6516.409355732236, "prediction_informative": true, "local_confidence": 0.33696639339554885, "persistence": -0.0034675097185610237, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 47.60053625374839, "Haley Stevens": 48.38921190466375, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.010251841587859 } }, { "cid": "fips:26137", "county": "Otsego", "reporting": 70.99, "current_votes": 1730, "estimated_remaining_votes": 852.2585725086306, "prediction_informative": false, "local_confidence": 0.0, "persistence": 0.0, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 46.789309736477215, "Haley Stevens": 48.59203687863631, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.6186533848864775 } }, { "cid": "fips:26031", "county": "Cheboygan", "reporting": 57.26, "current_votes": 1621, "estimated_remaining_votes": 1277.7034008361702, "prediction_informative": false, "local_confidence": 0.0, "persistence": 0.0, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 43.920948095313264, "Haley Stevens": 51.8247852252806, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.254266679406138 } }, { "cid": "fips:26059", "county": "Hillsdale", "reporting": 54.47, "current_votes": 1571, "estimated_remaining_votes": 1264.1567787725116, "prediction_informative": false, "local_confidence": 0.0, "persistence": 0.0, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 45.520790967153474, "Haley Stevens": 48.960517577598424, "Mallory McMorrow": 5.518691455248101 } }, { "cid": "fips:26133", "county": "Osceola", "reporting": 99.0, "current_votes": 1571, "estimated_remaining_votes": 19.133493263277842, "prediction_informative": true, "local_confidence": 0.3476211919566223, "persistence": 0.5757194067177048, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 42.05155890918337, "Haley Stevens": 51.784272331597094, "Mallory McMorrow": 6.164168759219546 } }, { "cid": "fips:26151", "county": "Sanilac", "reporting": 47.64, "current_votes": 1531, "estimated_remaining_votes": 1585.2325585258732, "prediction_informative": true, "local_confidence": 0.2850411381036408, "persistence": 0.28875945046884705, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 40.67892418404634, "Haley Stevens": 55.582376984322615, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.7386988316310474 } }, { "cid": "fips:26023", "county": "Branch", "reporting": 45.38, "current_votes": 1514, "estimated_remaining_votes": 1328.9638581037907, "prediction_informative": false, "local_confidence": 0.0, "persistence": 0.0, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 41.438051349366674, "Haley Stevens": 53.8487417707252, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.713206879908119 } }, { "cid": "fips:26079", "county": "Kalkaska", "reporting": 89.08, "current_votes": 1468, "estimated_remaining_votes": 216.38155288811413, "prediction_informative": false, "local_confidence": 0.0, "persistence": 0.0, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 47.26351867947701, "Haley Stevens": 47.697043887503696, "Mallory McMorrow": 5.039437433019282 } }, { "cid": "fips:26097", "county": "Mackinac", "reporting": 93.9, "current_votes": 1446, "estimated_remaining_votes": 87.37128851475677, "prediction_informative": false, "local_confidence": 0.0, "persistence": 0.0, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 46.11639102110533, "Haley Stevens": 48.391395683871394, "Mallory McMorrow": 5.49221329502327 } }, { "cid": "fips:26077", "county": "Kalamazoo", "reporting": 3.45, "current_votes": 1425, "estimated_remaining_votes": 42085.15108479823, "prediction_informative": false, "local_confidence": 0.0, "persistence": 0.0, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 49.20265783863977, "Haley Stevens": 46.908573427484576, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.8887687338756436 } }, { "cid": "fips:26127", "county": "Oceana", "reporting": 51.29, "current_votes": 1350, "estimated_remaining_votes": 1240.3814241764385, "prediction_informative": false, "local_confidence": 0.0, "persistence": 0.0, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 42.21387823611396, "Haley Stevens": 54.197714049604826, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.588407714281214 } }, { "cid": "fips:26021", "county": "Berrien", "reporting": 9.46, "current_votes": 1294, "estimated_remaining_votes": 15056.65577827919, "prediction_informative": false, "local_confidence": 0.0, "persistence": 0.0, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 52.361693045920454, "Haley Stevens": 43.31351516637008, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.324791787709454 } }, { "cid": "fips:26001", "county": "Alcona", "reporting": 96.49, "current_votes": 1237, "estimated_remaining_votes": 44.608029818520436, "prediction_informative": false, "local_confidence": 0.0, "persistence": 0.0, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 43.43422261071612, "Haley Stevens": 49.29958497420594, "Mallory McMorrow": 7.266192415077924 } }, { "cid": "fips:26165", "county": "Wexford", "reporting": 44.65, "current_votes": 1194, "estimated_remaining_votes": 1555.6611022108018, "prediction_informative": false, "local_confidence": 0.0, "persistence": 0.0, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 45.86082064562217, "Haley Stevens": 50.06691694502504, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.0722624093527875 } }, { "cid": "fips:26055", "county": "Grand Traverse", "reporting": 6.860000000000001, "current_votes": 1147, "estimated_remaining_votes": 11235.868104134455, "prediction_informative": false, "local_confidence": 0.0, "persistence": 0.0, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 53.00973182894082, "Haley Stevens": 43.57265813157436, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.4176100394848232 } }, { "cid": "fips:26039", "county": "Crawford", "reporting": 81.36, "current_votes": 1135, "estimated_remaining_votes": 288.24888430558144, "prediction_informative": false, "local_confidence": 0.0, "persistence": 0.0, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 42.14527215149083, "Haley Stevens": 51.8341239148717, "Mallory McMorrow": 6.020603933637464 } }, { "cid": "fips:26135", "county": "Oscoda", "reporting": 99.0, "current_votes": 1082, "estimated_remaining_votes": 0.0, "prediction_informative": false, "local_confidence": 0.0, "persistence": 0.0, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 40.3959256158699, "Haley Stevens": 55.9862650794633, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.6178093046668023 } }, { "cid": "fips:26061", "county": "Houghton", "reporting": 25.489999999999995, "current_votes": 1059, "estimated_remaining_votes": 3345.74264210606, "prediction_informative": false, "local_confidence": 0.0, "persistence": 0.0, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 49.85999700261376, "Haley Stevens": 44.98501767955519, "Mallory McMorrow": 5.154985317831048 } }, { "cid": "fips:26113", "county": "Missaukee", "reporting": 93.37, "current_votes": 943, "estimated_remaining_votes": 70.12569231661234, "prediction_informative": false, "local_confidence": 0.0, "persistence": 0.0, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 39.795960506679315, "Haley Stevens": 54.20997005218771, "Mallory McMorrow": 5.99406944113299 } }, { "cid": "fips:26017", "county": "Bay", "reporting": 5.77, "current_votes": 926, "estimated_remaining_votes": 15508.356874900292, "prediction_informative": false, "local_confidence": 0.0, "persistence": 0.0, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 49.359472630709476, "Haley Stevens": 46.65784358071798, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.9826837885725426 } }, { "cid": "fips:26025", "county": "Calhoun", "reporting": 7.2700000000000005, "current_votes": 918, "estimated_remaining_votes": 11811.954356962822, "prediction_informative": false, "local_confidence": 0.0, "persistence": 0.0, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 48.34848774414522, "Haley Stevens": 47.530903217520645, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.120609038334141 } }, { "cid": "fips:26089", "county": "Leelanau", "reporting": 15.83, "current_votes": 903, "estimated_remaining_votes": 5496.342097041341, "prediction_informative": false, "local_confidence": 0.0, "persistence": 0.0, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 51.717396415113484, "Haley Stevens": 44.9264186039844, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.3561849809021154 } }, { "cid": "fips:26085", "county": "Lake", "reporting": 61.51, "current_votes": 799, "estimated_remaining_votes": 506.3753173110222, "prediction_informative": false, "local_confidence": 0.0, "persistence": 0.0, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 37.80609386521957, "Haley Stevens": 57.082988566279504, "Mallory McMorrow": 5.110917568500926 } }, { "cid": "fips:26019", "county": "Benzie", "reporting": 24.01, "current_votes": 765, "estimated_remaining_votes": 3174.612088011311, "prediction_informative": false, "local_confidence": 0.0, "persistence": 0.0, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 53.3861388986278, "Haley Stevens": 42.81992865459943, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.793932446772769 } }, { "cid": "fips:26105", "county": "Mason", "reporting": 20.12, "current_votes": 718, "estimated_remaining_votes": 2726.660439539037, "prediction_informative": false, "local_confidence": 0.0, "persistence": 0.0, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 49.19279592462099, "Haley Stevens": 46.47119065883008, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.336013416548917 } }, { "cid": "fips:26087", "county": "Lapeer", "reporting": 7.41, "current_votes": 685, "estimated_remaining_votes": 8180.641770206288, "prediction_informative": false, "local_confidence": 0.0, "persistence": 0.0, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 46.401211677412505, "Haley Stevens": 49.81416720265253, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.7846211199349673 } }, { "cid": "fips:26035", "county": "Clare", "reporting": 24.98, "current_votes": 650, "estimated_remaining_votes": 2166.541410974669, "prediction_informative": true, "local_confidence": 0.21435143589163363, "persistence": -0.3491416064448567, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 42.848648112323765, "Haley Stevens": 52.52263280782753, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.628719079848709 } }, { "cid": "fips:26075", "county": "Jackson", "reporting": 3.46, "current_votes": 581, "estimated_remaining_votes": 15316.60702633344, "prediction_informative": false, "local_confidence": 0.0, "persistence": 0.0, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 48.56207434341256, "Haley Stevens": 47.6491351233427, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.7887905332447405 } }, { "cid": "fips:26013", "county": "Baraga", "reporting": 66.21, "current_votes": 527, "estimated_remaining_votes": 336.3151388567894, "prediction_informative": false, "local_confidence": 0.0, "persistence": 0.0, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 44.39302144305057, "Haley Stevens": 47.43438806486877, "Mallory McMorrow": 8.17259049208065 } }, { "cid": "fips:26143", "county": "Roscommon", "reporting": 15.72, "current_votes": 484, "estimated_remaining_votes": 2732.255070860492, "prediction_informative": true, "local_confidence": 0.25633415691241773, "persistence": -0.6, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 43.56410138857219, "Haley Stevens": 52.11862620856104, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.3172724028667675 } }, { "cid": "fips:26123", "county": "Newaygo", "reporting": 11.7, "current_votes": 474, "estimated_remaining_votes": 3200.745116245081, "prediction_informative": false, "local_confidence": 0.0, "persistence": 0.0, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 45.885477888108504, "Haley Stevens": 49.8949238266264, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.219598285265098 } }, { "cid": "fips:26083", "county": "Keweenaw", "reporting": 92.62, "current_votes": 414, "estimated_remaining_votes": 35.70628898706627, "prediction_informative": false, "local_confidence": 0.0, "persistence": 0.0, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 51.672948841780055, "Haley Stevens": 42.761872962521146, "Mallory McMorrow": 5.565178195698797 } }, { "cid": "fips:26095", "county": "Luce", "reporting": 99.0, "current_votes": 407, "estimated_remaining_votes": 5.603236249659915, "prediction_informative": false, "local_confidence": 0.0, "persistence": 0.0, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 44.13529260847165, "Haley Stevens": 48.8405207802994, "Mallory McMorrow": 7.024186611228952 } }, { "cid": "fips:26141", "county": "Presque Isle", "reporting": 21.17, "current_votes": 344, "estimated_remaining_votes": 1451.5801453614304, "prediction_informative": false, "local_confidence": 0.0, "persistence": 0.0, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 41.12743159811932, "Haley Stevens": 54.48291910842548, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.3896492934552045 } }, { "cid": "fips:26003", "county": "Alger", "reporting": 20.65, "current_votes": 291, "estimated_remaining_votes": 1187.3829746305028, "prediction_informative": false, "local_confidence": 0.0, "persistence": 0.0, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 50.834497675677845, "Haley Stevens": 42.165435318008505, "Mallory McMorrow": 7.00006700631365 } }, { "cid": "fips:26053", "county": "Gogebic", "reporting": 12.08, "current_votes": 281, "estimated_remaining_votes": 1803.7504679250023, "prediction_informative": false, "local_confidence": 0.0, "persistence": 0.0, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 49.35119580006065, "Haley Stevens": 45.03762609733134, "Mallory McMorrow": 5.611178102608012 } }, { "cid": "fips:26131", "county": "Ontonagon", "reporting": 15.380000000000003, "current_votes": 134, "estimated_remaining_votes": 850.4069201533449, "prediction_informative": false, "local_confidence": 0.0, "persistence": 0.0, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 49.21353186784084, "Haley Stevens": 45.628286077300096, "Mallory McMorrow": 5.158182054859063 } }, { "cid": "fips:26037", "county": "Clinton", "reporting": 0.11, "current_votes": 11, "estimated_remaining_votes": 12041.099798507375, "prediction_informative": false, "local_confidence": 0.0, "persistence": 0.0, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 50.433845372032515, "Haley Stevens": 46.01661632066452, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.5495383073029743 } }, { "cid": "fips:26005", "county": "Allegan", "reporting": 0.0, "current_votes": 0, "estimated_remaining_votes": 12233.214980259478, "prediction_informative": false, "local_confidence": 0.0, "persistence": 0.0, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 49.66909203498723, "Haley Stevens": 46.65960635849946, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.67130160651331 } }, { "cid": "fips:26009", "county": "Antrim", "reporting": 0.0, "current_votes": 0, "estimated_remaining_votes": 3308.801867612957, "prediction_informative": false, "local_confidence": 0.0, "persistence": 0.0, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 49.66909203498723, "Haley Stevens": 46.65960635849946, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.67130160651331 } }, { "cid": "fips:26011", "county": "Arenac", "reporting": 0.0, "current_votes": 0, "estimated_remaining_votes": 1502.2465186291217, "prediction_informative": false, "local_confidence": 0.0, "persistence": 0.0, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 49.66909203498723, "Haley Stevens": 46.65960635849946, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.67130160651331 } }, { "cid": "fips:26043", "county": "Dickinson", "reporting": 0.0, "current_votes": 0, "estimated_remaining_votes": 2771.437006206097, "prediction_informative": false, "local_confidence": 0.0, "persistence": 0.0, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 49.66909203498723, "Haley Stevens": 46.65960635849946, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.67130160651331 } }, { "cid": "fips:26051", "county": "Gladwin", "reporting": 0.0, "current_votes": 0, "estimated_remaining_votes": 2590.3361413120724, "prediction_informative": false, "local_confidence": 0.0, "persistence": 0.0, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 49.66909203498723, "Haley Stevens": 46.65960635849946, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.67130160651331 } }, { "cid": "fips:26071", "county": "Iron", "reporting": 0.0, "current_votes": 0, "estimated_remaining_votes": 1664.049750378701, "prediction_informative": false, "local_confidence": 0.0, "persistence": 0.0, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 49.66909203498723, "Haley Stevens": 46.65960635849946, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.67130160651331 } }, { "cid": "fips:26091", "county": "Lenawee", "reporting": 0.0, "current_votes": 0, "estimated_remaining_votes": 9669.598638685868, "prediction_informative": false, "local_confidence": 0.0, "persistence": 0.0, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 49.66909203498723, "Haley Stevens": 46.65960635849946, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.67130160651331 } }, { "cid": "fips:26101", "county": "Manistee", "reporting": 0.0, "current_votes": 0, "estimated_remaining_votes": 3791.242696224088, "prediction_informative": false, "local_confidence": 0.0, "persistence": 0.0, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 49.66909203498723, "Haley Stevens": 46.65960635849946, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.67130160651331 } }, { "cid": "fips:26103", "county": "Marquette", "reporting": 0.0, "current_votes": 0, "estimated_remaining_votes": 13575.142700457824, "prediction_informative": false, "local_confidence": 0.0, "persistence": 0.0, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 49.66909203498723, "Haley Stevens": 46.65960635849946, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.67130160651331 } }, { "cid": "fips:26109", "county": "Menominee", "reporting": 0.0, "current_votes": 0, "estimated_remaining_votes": 2394.3909432300134, "prediction_informative": false, "local_confidence": 0.0, "persistence": 0.0, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 49.66909203498723, "Haley Stevens": 46.65960635849946, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.67130160651331 } }, { "cid": "fips:26119", "county": "Montmorency", "reporting": 0.0, "current_votes": 0, "estimated_remaining_votes": 970.8193904974759, "prediction_informative": false, "local_confidence": 0.0, "persistence": 0.0, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 49.66909203498723, "Haley Stevens": 46.65960635849946, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.67130160651331 } }, { "cid": "fips:26121", "county": "Muskegon", "reporting": 0.0, "current_votes": 0, "estimated_remaining_votes": 24944.417489173677, "prediction_informative": false, "local_confidence": 0.0, "persistence": 0.0, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 49.66909203498723, "Haley Stevens": 46.65960635849946, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.67130160651331 } }, { "cid": "fips:26129", "county": "Ogemaw", "reporting": 0.0, "current_votes": 0, "estimated_remaining_votes": 2287.5117442761625, "prediction_informative": false, "local_confidence": 0.0, "persistence": 0.0, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 49.66909203498723, "Haley Stevens": 46.65960635849946, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.67130160651331 } }, { "cid": "fips:26153", "county": "Schoolcraft", "reporting": 0.0, "current_votes": 0, "estimated_remaining_votes": 987.1481570043142, "prediction_informative": false, "local_confidence": 0.0, "persistence": 0.0, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 49.66909203498723, "Haley Stevens": 46.65960635849946, "Mallory McMorrow": 3.67130160651331 } } ] }, "batch_bias_projection": { "predicted_leader": "Abdul El-Sayed", "projected_margin_points": 1.8737681279252627, "projection": [ { "name": "Abdul El-Sayed", "party": "Democratic", "color": "#40247a", "major_candidate": true, "current_votes": 282337, "current_share": 0.4966909203498723, "projected_share": 0.490812312442092, "final_votes": 741072, "final_share": 0.4847834647987199, "share_error_points": 0.6028847643372082 }, { "name": "Haley Stevens", "party": "Democratic", "color": "#339933", "major_candidate": true, "current_votes": 265230, "current_share": 0.4665960635849946, "projected_share": 0.4720746311628394, "final_votes": 726340, "final_share": 0.4751463040324047, "share_error_points": -0.3071672869565334 }, { "name": "Mallory McMorrow", "party": "Democratic", "color": "#009f8e", "major_candidate": true, "current_votes": 20869, "current_share": 0.0367130160651331, "projected_share": 0.0371130563950687, "final_votes": 61254, "final_share": 0.04007023116887535, "share_error_points": -0.29571747738066506 } ] }, "temporal": { "available": true, "history_snapshots": [ { "snapshot": 45, "filename": "45.json", "timestamp": "2026-08-04T22:42:02.802634", "votes": 540770 }, { "snapshot": 46, "filename": "46.json", "timestamp": "2026-08-04T22:45:04.709810", "votes": 549069 }, { "snapshot": 47, "filename": "47.json", "timestamp": "2026-08-04T22:49:03.970435", "votes": 561429 }, { "snapshot": 48, "filename": "48.json", "timestamp": "2026-08-04T22:53:03.243743", "votes": 568436 } ], "intervals": [ { "raw_deltas": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 3768, "Haley Stevens": 4228, "Mallory McMorrow": 303 }, "positive_deltas": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 3768, "Haley Stevens": 4228, "Mallory McMorrow": 303 }, "new_votes": 8299, "net_new_votes": 8299, "negative_correction_votes": 0, "correction_reliability": 1.0, "shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 0.45403060609712015, "Haley Stevens": 0.5094589709603566, "Mallory McMorrow": 0.03651042294252319 }, "leader": "Haley Stevens", "margin_points": 5.542836486323649, "from_snapshot": 45, "from_filename": "45.json", "from_timestamp": "2026-08-04T22:42:02.802634", "to_snapshot": 46, "to_filename": "46.json", "to_timestamp": "2026-08-04T22:45:04.709810" }, { "raw_deltas": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 6004, "Haley Stevens": 5684, "Mallory McMorrow": 672 }, "positive_deltas": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 6004, "Haley Stevens": 5684, "Mallory McMorrow": 672 }, "new_votes": 12360, "net_new_votes": 12360, "negative_correction_votes": 0, "correction_reliability": 1.0, "shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 0.48576051779935275, "Haley Stevens": 0.4598705501618123, "Mallory McMorrow": 0.05436893203883495 }, "leader": "Abdul El-Sayed", "margin_points": 2.588996763754048, "from_snapshot": 46, "from_filename": "46.json", "from_timestamp": "2026-08-04T22:45:04.709810", "to_snapshot": 47, "to_filename": "47.json", "to_timestamp": "2026-08-04T22:49:03.970435" }, { "raw_deltas": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 3065, "Haley Stevens": 3656, "Mallory McMorrow": 286 }, "positive_deltas": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 3065, "Haley Stevens": 3656, "Mallory McMorrow": 286 }, "new_votes": 7007, "net_new_votes": 7007, "negative_correction_votes": 0, "correction_reliability": 1.0, "shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 0.43741972313400884, "Haley Stevens": 0.5217639503353789, "Mallory McMorrow": 0.04081632653061224 }, "leader": "Haley Stevens", "margin_points": 8.434422720137007, "from_snapshot": 47, "from_filename": "47.json", "from_timestamp": "2026-08-04T22:49:03.970435", "to_snapshot": 48, "to_filename": "48.json", "to_timestamp": "2026-08-04T22:53:03.243743" } ], "recent_return_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 45.791651808492134, "Haley Stevens": 49.72686804932507, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.4814801421827815 }, "recent_return_leader": "Haley Stevens", "trend_label": "Haley Stevens strengthening in recent dumps", "momentum_slope_points_per_dump": 1.4457931169066789, "stability": 0.7234972417741027, "dispersion_points": 1.7801219989023516, "leader_consistency": 0.6430058167762395, "recent_votes": 27666, "recent_vote_share_of_current": 0.048670386815754106, "confidence": 0.2679438069295711, "estimated_final_votes": 1513383.4966413756, "estimated_remaining_votes": 944947.4966413771, "estimated_counted_fraction": 0.37560605177836265, "max_ensemble_influence": 0.25024242071134506, "market_remaining_coverage": 0.9946101445711925, "media_markets": [ { "market": "GRAND RAPIDS (MI) - KALAMAZOO (MI) - BATTLE CREEK (MI)", "recent_votes": 9802, "temporal_confidence": 0.4544947477458052, "trend_label": "Haley Stevens strengthening in recent dumps", "trend_leader": "Haley Stevens", "trend_margin_points": 4.946638793480817, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 45.26945924610294, "Haley Stevens": 50.216098039583756, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.514442714313301 }, "estimated_remaining_votes": 170819.17660416343, "electorate_weight": 0.1646567412760018, "reporting_confidence": 0.5587344585363557, "reliability": 0.877748985886094 }, { "market": "FLINT (MI) - SAGINAW (MI) - BAY CITY (MI)", "recent_votes": 3096, "temporal_confidence": 0.34415021718110855, "trend_label": "Haley Stevens strengthening in recent dumps", "trend_leader": "Haley Stevens", "trend_margin_points": 6.8484827289402865, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 44.29579872989565, "Haley Stevens": 51.14428145883594, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.559919811268416 }, "estimated_remaining_votes": 133867.27292462136, "electorate_weight": 0.10619856528237329, "reporting_confidence": 0.40529091989048277, "reliability": 0.9796998811853876 }, { "market": "TRAVERSE CITY (MI) - CADILLAC (MI)", "recent_votes": 5942, "temporal_confidence": 0.7478279362454971, "trend_label": "Haley Stevens recent batch advantage is weakening", "trend_leader": "Haley Stevens", "trend_margin_points": 3.337782478017365, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 46.04054197864031, "Haley Stevens": 49.37832445665768, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.581133564702016 }, "estimated_remaining_votes": 45751.47576615118, "electorate_weight": 0.05042164126221956, "reporting_confidence": 0.631194462165976, "reliability": 1.0 }, { "market": "DETROIT (MI)", "recent_votes": 6890, "temporal_confidence": 0.025667466151077088, "trend_label": "Abdul El-Sayed recent batch advantage is weakening", "trend_leader": "Haley Stevens", "trend_margin_points": 3.639181801110891, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 45.95739944083696, "Haley Stevens": 49.59658124194785, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.446019317215189 }, "estimated_remaining_votes": 464570.33872885443, "electorate_weight": 0.5620286104712948, "reporting_confidence": 0.6722836087915502, "reliability": 1.0 }, { "market": "LANSING (MI)", "recent_votes": 1131, "temporal_confidence": 0.13539195945950033, "trend_label": "Haley Stevens recent batch advantage is weakening", "trend_leader": "Haley Stevens", "trend_margin_points": 3.9058133999496034, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 45.604918735715295, "Haley Stevens": 49.510732135664895, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.8843491286198075 }, "estimated_remaining_votes": 68742.94873273994, "electorate_weight": 0.06954161551383027, "reporting_confidence": 0.5870367037237296, "reliability": 0.8509104473589124 }, { "market": "SOUTH BEND (IN) - ELKHART (IN)", "recent_votes": 805, "temporal_confidence": 0.2730431629288826, "trend_label": "Abdul El-Sayed recent-return advantage is broadly stable", "trend_leader": "Haley Stevens", "trend_margin_points": 0.689954410328858, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 46.68632446941163, "Haley Stevens": 47.37627887974049, "Mallory McMorrow": 5.937396650847872 }, "estimated_remaining_votes": 15155.292091805597, "electorate_weight": 0.013229741791337716, "reporting_confidence": 0.49040762307075136, "reliability": 1.0 }, { "market": "MARQUETTE (MI)", "recent_votes": 0, "temporal_confidence": 0.0, "trend_label": "No usable recent vote intervals", "trend_leader": "Haley Stevens", "trend_margin_points": 3.9352162408329336, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 45.791651808492134, "Haley Stevens": 49.72686804932507, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.4814801421827815 }, "estimated_remaining_votes": 25150.257609855384, "electorate_weight": 0.021110827412556744, "reporting_confidence": 0.45840612173697537, "reliability": 1.0 }, { "market": "TOLEDO (OH)", "recent_votes": 0, "temporal_confidence": 0.0, "trend_label": "No usable recent vote intervals", "trend_leader": "Haley Stevens", "trend_margin_points": 3.9352162408329336, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 45.791651808492134, "Haley Stevens": 49.72686804932507, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.4814801421827815 }, "estimated_remaining_votes": 9669.598638685868, "electorate_weight": 0.0064109662536321575, "reporting_confidence": 0.0, "reliability": 1.0 }, { "market": "GREEN BAY (WI) - APPLETON (WI)", "recent_votes": 0, "temporal_confidence": 0.0, "trend_label": "No usable recent vote intervals", "trend_leader": "Haley Stevens", "trend_margin_points": 3.9352162408329336, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 45.791651808492134, "Haley Stevens": 49.72686804932507, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.4814801421827815 }, "estimated_remaining_votes": 2394.3909432300134, "electorate_weight": 0.0015874867312110333, "reporting_confidence": 0.0, "reliability": 1.0 }, { "market": "ALPENA (MI)", "recent_votes": 0, "temporal_confidence": 0.0, "trend_label": "No usable recent vote intervals", "trend_leader": "Haley Stevens", "trend_margin_points": 3.9352162408329336, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 45.791651808492134, "Haley Stevens": 49.72686804932507, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.4814801421827815 }, "estimated_remaining_votes": 1929.8637386343407, "electorate_weight": 0.0034316096253497364, "reporting_confidence": 0.791922788590073, "reliability": 1.0 }, { "market": "DULUTH (MN) - SUPERIOR (WI)", "recent_votes": 0, "temporal_confidence": 0.0, "trend_label": "No usable recent vote intervals", "trend_leader": "Haley Stevens", "trend_margin_points": 3.9352162408329336, "projected_remaining_shares": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 45.791651808492134, "Haley Stevens": 49.72686804932507, "Mallory McMorrow": 4.4814801421827815 }, "estimated_remaining_votes": 1803.7504679250023, "electorate_weight": 0.0013821943801927466, "reporting_confidence": 0.3671352797984797, "reliability": 1.0 } ] }, "temporal_projection": { "predicted_leader": "Haley Stevens", "projected_margin_points": 1.55583018002593, "projection": [ { "name": "Haley Stevens", "party": "Democratic", "color": "#339933", "major_candidate": true, "current_votes": 265230, "current_share": 0.4665960635849946, "projected_share": 0.4867149623270349, "final_votes": 726340, "final_share": 0.4751463040324047, "share_error_points": 1.1568658294630163 }, { "name": "Abdul El-Sayed", "party": "Democratic", "color": "#40247a", "major_candidate": true, "current_votes": 282337, "current_share": 0.4966909203498723, "projected_share": 0.4711566605267756, "final_votes": 741072, "final_share": 0.4847834647987199, "share_error_points": -1.3626804271944348 }, { "name": "Mallory McMorrow", "party": "Democratic", "color": "#009f8e", "major_candidate": true, "current_votes": 20869, "current_share": 0.0367130160651331, "projected_share": 0.042128377146189624, "final_votes": 61254, "final_share": 0.04007023116887535, "share_error_points": 0.20581459773142755 } ], "role": "path_only", "final_ensemble_weight": 0.0 } } }