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"hidden_movement_candidates": [ "Haley Stevens", "Abdul El-Sayed" ] }, "candidate_projection_breakdown": [ { "name": "Haley Stevens", "party": "Democratic", "current_votes": 230039, "current_rank": 2, "current_share_points": 48.07392097569335, "projected_rank": 1, "projected_share_points": 48.537267321793585, "projected_change_points": 0.46334634610023784, "projected_rank_movement": 1, "final_rank_backtest_only": 2, "final_share_points_backtest_only": 47.514630403240474, "share_error_points_backtest_only": 1.0226369185531112, "final_rank_movement_backtest_only": 0, "rank_error_backtest_only": -1, "rank_call_correct_backtest_only": false, "hidden_movement": true }, { "name": "Abdul El-Sayed", "party": "Democratic", "current_votes": 230880, "current_rank": 1, "current_share_points": 48.249674511139766, "projected_rank": 2, "projected_share_points": 47.655019732976264, "projected_change_points": -0.5946547781635019, "projected_rank_movement": -1, "final_rank_backtest_only": 1, 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Path itself still has 0% direct final weight." }, "completion_benchmark_signal": { "available": true, "role": "final_completion", "favored_candidate": "Haley Stevens", "evidence": 1.0, "base_evidence": 1.0, "favored_signal_score": 0.26241394685413466, "favored_weighted_excess_points": 0.7160215604666285, "favored_implied_statewide_margin_lift_points": 0.27674895105567093, "favored_breadth_balance": -0.04, "favored_temporal_persistence": 0.5284560550206149, "favored_latest_window_lift_points": 0.6662258154080168, "favored_latest_window_vote_share": 0.33216073051477024, "favored_latest_window_weight_share": 0.5284560550206149, "favored_prior_vote_weighted_lift_points": -0.1708360573100666, "favored_regime_reversal": true, "directional": true, "persistent_actionable_pre_maturity": false, "actionable_pre_maturity": false, "validation_quality": 0.7126365529482892, "validation_mae_points": 1.1494537882068432, "candidates": { "Abdul El-Sayed": { "weighted_excess_points": -1.8913987393501714, "implied_statewide_margin_lift_points": -0.3120417031824655, "above_benchmark_counties": 29, "below_benchmark_counties": 41, "on_benchmark_counties": 5, "unique_counties": 53, "unique_markets": 9, "votes_scored": 417021.0, "breadth_balance": -0.16, "temporal_persistence": 0.471543944979385, "positive_window_weight_share": 0.471543944979385, "latest_window_lift_points": -0.7433564431452997, "latest_window_vote_share": 0.33216073051477024, "latest_window_weight_share": 0.5284560550206149, "latest_window_matured_votes": 138518.0, "latest_window_matured_counties": 40, "prior_vote_weighted_lift_points": 0.23492238571445337, "regime_reversal": false, "windows_scored": 3, "evidence": 1.0, "signal_score": -0.4518878664778273 }, "Haley Stevens": { "weighted_excess_points": 0.7160215604666285, "implied_statewide_margin_lift_points": 0.27674895105567093, "above_benchmark_counties": 32, "below_benchmark_counties": 35, "on_benchmark_counties": 8, "unique_counties": 53, "unique_markets": 9, "votes_scored": 417021.0, "breadth_balance": -0.04, "temporal_persistence": 0.5284560550206149, "positive_window_weight_share": 0.5284560550206149, "latest_window_lift_points": 0.6662258154080168, "latest_window_vote_share": 0.33216073051477024, "latest_window_weight_share": 0.5284560550206149, "latest_window_matured_votes": 138518.0, "latest_window_matured_counties": 40, "prior_vote_weighted_lift_points": -0.1708360573100666, "regime_reversal": true, "windows_scored": 3, "evidence": 1.0, "signal_score": 0.26241394685413466 }, "Mallory McMorrow": { "weighted_excess_points": -26.69068268001216, "implied_statewide_margin_lift_points": -2.779878966469205, "above_benchmark_counties": 0, "below_benchmark_counties": 75, "on_benchmark_counties": 0, "unique_counties": 53, "unique_markets": 9, "votes_scored": 417021.0, "breadth_balance": -1.0, "temporal_persistence": 0.0, "positive_window_weight_share": 0.0, "latest_window_lift_points": -2.693389741982925, "latest_window_vote_share": 0.33216073051477024, "latest_window_weight_share": 0.5284560550206149, "latest_window_matured_votes": 138518.0, "latest_window_matured_counties": 40, "prior_vote_weighted_lift_points": -3.7617713282803398, "regime_reversal": false, "windows_scored": 3, "evidence": 1.0, "signal_score": -0.9999723072348771 } }, "windows": [ { "from_snapshot": 11, "to_snapshot": 21, "from_filename": "11.json", "to_filename": "21.json", "span_snapshots": 10, "matured_votes_scored": 204497.0, "matured_counties_scored": 12, "window_margin_lift_points": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 0.2951924784777026, "Haley Stevens": -0.18135702932182718, "Mallory McMorrow": -4.600498926954175 } }, { "from_snapshot": 21, "to_snapshot": 31, "from_filename": "21.json", "to_filename": "31.json", "span_snapshots": 10, "matured_votes_scored": 74006.0, "matured_counties_scored": 23, "window_margin_lift_points": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 0.06838111663078217, "Haley Stevens": -0.1417639927005889, "Mallory McMorrow": -1.4441581922372724 } }, { "from_snapshot": 31, "to_snapshot": 41, "from_filename": "31.json", "to_filename": "41.json", "span_snapshots": 10, "matured_votes_scored": 138518.0, "matured_counties_scored": 40, "window_margin_lift_points": { "Abdul El-Sayed": -0.7433564431452997, "Haley Stevens": 0.6662258154080168, "Mallory McMorrow": -2.693389741982925 } } ], "matured_votes_scored": 417021.0, "unique_matured_counties": 53, "average_reporting_advance_points": 34.707187383848776, "method_note": "V6.2 Completion Benchmark uses longer material county-maturation windows. Only this benchmark layer is eligible to influence the final Needle; the short-horizon Path Benchmark remains path-only." }, "path_benchmark_signal": { "available": true, "role": "path_only", "final_ensemble_weight": 0.0, "favored_candidate": "Haley Stevens", "least_favored_candidate": "Mallory McMorrow", "evidence": 0.9834039385419784, "favored_signal_score": 0.7613556250900323, "favored_weighted_excess_points": 9.519923690297727, "favored_breadth_balance": 0.4074074074074074, "candidates": { "Abdul El-Sayed": { "weighted_excess_points": -9.935774572567267, "above_benchmark_counties": 8, "below_benchmark_counties": 18, "on_benchmark_counties": 1, "unique_counties": 23, "unique_markets": 7, "votes_scored": 69414.0, "breadth_balance": -0.37037037037037035, "evidence": 0.9834039385419784, "signal_score": -0.7476849550538911 }, "Haley Stevens": { "weighted_excess_points": 9.519923690297727, "above_benchmark_counties": 18, "below_benchmark_counties": 7, "on_benchmark_counties": 2, "unique_counties": 23, "unique_markets": 7, "votes_scored": 69414.0, "breadth_balance": 0.4074074074074074, "evidence": 0.9834039385419784, "signal_score": 0.7613556250900323 }, "Mallory McMorrow": { "weighted_excess_points": -27.11976804963976, "above_benchmark_counties": 0, "below_benchmark_counties": 27, "on_benchmark_counties": 0, "unique_counties": 23, "unique_markets": 7, "votes_scored": 69414.0, "breadth_balance": -1.0, "evidence": 0.9834039385419784, "signal_score": -0.9834039380808932 } }, "intervals": [ { "from_snapshot": 38, "to_snapshot": 39, "new_votes": 5258, "changed_counties": 5, "benchmark_observations_scored": 15 }, { "from_snapshot": 39, "to_snapshot": 40, "new_votes": 8483, "changed_counties": 13, "benchmark_observations_scored": 39 }, { "from_snapshot": 40, "to_snapshot": 41, "new_votes": 55673, "changed_counties": 9, "benchmark_observations_scored": 27 } ], "method_note": "V6 rebuilds county tie benchmarks and the preliminary expert gate exactly as they existed at each prior snapshot, then grades only later-arriving vote. Broad, repeated benchmark beats across independent counties are stronger evidence than one friendly dump." }, "crossover_consensus": { "available": false, "raw_leader": "Abdul El-Sayed", "candidate": null, "eligible": false, "score": 0.0, "independent_families": 0, "required_families": 2, "required_score": 0.075, "maturity_percent_estimate": 31.5626709886949, "candidates": {} }, "turning_point_trust_reallocation": { "available": false, "applied": false, "candidate": "Haley Stevens", "raw_leader": "Abdul El-Sayed", "requested_transfer": 0.0, "applied_transfer": 0.0, "supporters": [], "contradictors": [], "override_caps": {} }, "reference_requested": "/var/www/html/afi_needle_lab/engine/references/library/mi_democratic_library.json", "media_market_source": "/var/www/html/afi_needle_lab/engine/media_markets/mi_media_markets.js" } ], "method_note": "All supplied contested statewide races are evaluated at one common target percentage of eventual vote. Each race uses the nearest historical snapshot within the ordinary checkpoint tolerance. latest.json is scoring-only." }