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Only this benchmark layer is eligible to influence the final Needle; the short-horizon Path Benchmark remains path-only." }, "path_benchmark_signal": { "available": true, "role": "path_only", "final_ensemble_weight": 0.0, "favored_candidate": "John James", "least_favored_candidate": "Aric Nesbitt", "evidence": 0.7123411866099918, "favored_signal_score": 0.6517246833175914, "favored_weighted_excess_points": 9.440796901034812, "favored_breadth_balance": 0.7777777777777778, "candidates": { "John James": { "weighted_excess_points": 9.440796901034812, "above_benchmark_counties": 23, "below_benchmark_counties": 2, "on_benchmark_counties": 2, "unique_counties": 23, "unique_markets": 8, "votes_scored": 32266.0, "breadth_balance": 0.7777777777777778, "evidence": 0.7123411866099918, "signal_score": 0.6517246833175914 }, "Perry Johnson": { "weighted_excess_points": -9.127710132467605, "above_benchmark_counties": 2, "below_benchmark_counties": 24, "on_benchmark_counties": 1, "unique_counties": 23, "unique_markets": 8, "votes_scored": 32266.0, "breadth_balance": -0.8148148148148148, "evidence": 0.7123411866099918, "signal_score": -0.6616184614056503 }, "Mike Cox": { "weighted_excess_points": -22.812984948463782, "above_benchmark_counties": 0, "below_benchmark_counties": 27, "on_benchmark_counties": 0, "unique_counties": 23, "unique_markets": 8, "votes_scored": 32266.0, "breadth_balance": -1.0, "evidence": 0.7123411866099918, "signal_score": -0.7123411761370919 }, "Aric Nesbitt": { "weighted_excess_points": -29.629844540115098, "above_benchmark_counties": 0, "below_benchmark_counties": 27, "on_benchmark_counties": 0, "unique_counties": 23, "unique_markets": 8, "votes_scored": 32266.0, "breadth_balance": -1.0, "evidence": 0.7123411866099918, "signal_score": -0.7123411865651537 } }, "intervals": [ { "from_snapshot": 53, "to_snapshot": 54, "new_votes": 6028, "changed_counties": 10, "benchmark_observations_scored": 40 }, { "from_snapshot": 54, "to_snapshot": 55, "new_votes": 4385, "changed_counties": 6, "benchmark_observations_scored": 24 }, { "from_snapshot": 55, "to_snapshot": 56, "new_votes": 21853, "changed_counties": 11, "benchmark_observations_scored": 44 } ], "method_note": "V6 rebuilds county tie benchmarks and the preliminary expert gate exactly as they existed at each prior snapshot, then grades only later-arriving vote. Broad, repeated benchmark beats across independent counties are stronger evidence than one friendly dump." }, "crossover_consensus": { "available": false, "raw_leader": "John James", "candidate": null, "eligible": false, "score": 0.0, "independent_families": 0, "required_families": 3, "required_score": 0.115, "maturity_percent_estimate": 18.491257296016368, "candidates": {} }, "turning_point_trust_reallocation": { "available": false, "applied": false, "candidate": "John James", "raw_leader": "John James", "requested_transfer": 0.0, "applied_transfer": 0.0, "supporters": [], "contradictors": [], "override_caps": {} }, "reference_requested": "/var/www/html/afi_needle_lab/engine/references/library/mi_republican_library.json", "media_market_source": "/var/www/html/afi_needle_lab/engine/media_markets/mi_media_markets.js" }, { "label": "US Senate \u2014 Democratic", "office": "US_Senate", "party": "democratic", "race_url": "https://data.americafirstinsight.com/Election2026/output/2026/MI/US_Senate/00/democratic/", "race_name": "Michigan US Senate Democratic Primary", "status": "ok", "target_pct": 45.0, "actual_vote_counted_pct": 44.449670497021586, "checkpoint_distance_points": 0.5503295029784141, "checkpoint_tolerance_points": 7.5, "snapshot": "55.json", "snapshot_number": 55, "timestamp": "2026-08-04T23:18:03.533119", "final_leader": "Abdul El-Sayed", "final_runner_up": "Haley Stevens", "final_margin_points": 0.9637160766315211, "final_votes": 1528666, "raw_current_leader": "Abdul El-Sayed", "raw_current_margin_points": 3.572842453203667, "raw_leader_correct": true, "v6_predicted_leader": "Abdul El-Sayed", "v6_projected_runner_up": "Haley Stevens", "v6_projected_top_margin_points": 3.2794884869746, "v6_leader_correct": true, "v6_eventual_winner_margin_error_points": 2.315772410343075, "v6_absolute_margin_error_points": 2.315772410343075, "v6_winner_share_error_points": 1.2932644964131157, 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Path itself still has 0% direct final weight." }, "completion_benchmark_signal": { "available": true, "role": "final_completion", "favored_candidate": "Abdul El-Sayed", "evidence": 1.0, "base_evidence": 1.0, "favored_signal_score": 0.12297745968154679, "favored_weighted_excess_points": 0.5338411611679019, "favored_implied_statewide_margin_lift_points": 0.08282999413955947, "favored_breadth_balance": -0.19327731092436976, "favored_temporal_persistence": 0.6350719581729012, "favored_latest_window_lift_points": 0.25312347530844653, "favored_latest_window_vote_share": 0.3743741590729309, "favored_latest_window_weight_share": 0.5114614296597324, "favored_prior_vote_weighted_lift_points": -0.08147200301612853, "favored_regime_reversal": true, "directional": true, "persistent_actionable_pre_maturity": false, "actionable_pre_maturity": false, "validation_quality": 0.6361707227597401, "validation_mae_points": 1.4553171089610397, "candidates": { "Abdul El-Sayed": { "weighted_excess_points": 0.5338411611679019, "implied_statewide_margin_lift_points": 0.08282999413955947, "above_benchmark_counties": 45, "below_benchmark_counties": 68, "on_benchmark_counties": 6, "unique_counties": 68, "unique_markets": 9, "votes_scored": 418437.0, "breadth_balance": -0.19327731092436976, "temporal_persistence": 0.6350719581729012, "positive_window_weight_share": 0.6350719581729012, "latest_window_lift_points": 0.25312347530844653, "latest_window_vote_share": 0.3743741590729309, "latest_window_weight_share": 0.5114614296597324, "latest_window_matured_votes": 156652.0, "latest_window_matured_counties": 49, "prior_vote_weighted_lift_points": -0.08147200301612853, "regime_reversal": true, "windows_scored": 3, "evidence": 1.0, "signal_score": 0.12297745968154679 }, "Haley Stevens": { "weighted_excess_points": -1.1356158716467764, "implied_statewide_margin_lift_points": -0.1147787515808061, "above_benchmark_counties": 53, "below_benchmark_counties": 51, "on_benchmark_counties": 15, "unique_counties": 68, "unique_markets": 9, "votes_scored": 418437.0, "breadth_balance": 0.01680672268907563, "temporal_persistence": 0.3649280418270989, "positive_window_weight_share": 0.3649280418270989, "latest_window_lift_points": -0.2800829030195724, "latest_window_vote_share": 0.3743741590729309, "latest_window_weight_share": 0.5114614296597324, "latest_window_matured_votes": 156652.0, "latest_window_matured_counties": 49, "prior_vote_weighted_lift_points": 0.04057032058384638, "regime_reversal": false, "windows_scored": 3, "evidence": 1.0, "signal_score": -0.2555765452526778 }, "Mallory McMorrow": { "weighted_excess_points": -28.197926999889532, "implied_statewide_margin_lift_points": -3.3563888239100095, "above_benchmark_counties": 0, "below_benchmark_counties": 119, "on_benchmark_counties": 0, "unique_counties": 68, "unique_markets": 9, "votes_scored": 418437.0, "breadth_balance": -1.0, "temporal_persistence": 0.0, "positive_window_weight_share": 0.0, "latest_window_lift_points": -3.575715591969917, "latest_window_vote_share": 0.3743741590729309, "latest_window_weight_share": 0.5114614296597324, "latest_window_matured_votes": 156652.0, "latest_window_matured_counties": 49, "prior_vote_weighted_lift_points": -3.00130079802364, "regime_reversal": false, "windows_scored": 3, "evidence": 1.0, "signal_score": -0.9999965964178791 } }, "windows": [ { "from_snapshot": 19, "to_snapshot": 31, "from_filename": "19.json", "to_filename": "31.json", "span_snapshots": 12, "matured_votes_scored": 82350.0, "matured_counties_scored": 24, "window_margin_lift_points": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 0.07423173677079692, "Haley Stevens": -0.15666543955910212, "Mallory McMorrow": -1.6040507452807844 } }, { "from_snapshot": 31, "to_snapshot": 43, "from_filename": "31.json", "to_filename": "43.json", "span_snapshots": 12, "matured_votes_scored": 179435.0, "matured_counties_scored": 46, "window_margin_lift_points": { "Abdul El-Sayed": -0.1529307650829121, "Haley Stevens": 0.1310898114734265, "Mallory McMorrow": -3.6425555244893477 } }, { "from_snapshot": 43, "to_snapshot": 55, "from_filename": "43.json", "to_filename": "55.json", "span_snapshots": 12, "matured_votes_scored": 156652.0, "matured_counties_scored": 49, "window_margin_lift_points": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 0.25312347530844653, "Haley Stevens": -0.2800829030195724, "Mallory McMorrow": -3.575715591969917 } } ], "matured_votes_scored": 418437.0, "unique_matured_counties": 68, "average_reporting_advance_points": 23.674189328381576, "method_note": "V6.2 Completion Benchmark uses longer material county-maturation windows. Only this benchmark layer is eligible to influence the final Needle; the short-horizon Path Benchmark remains path-only." }, "path_benchmark_signal": { "available": true, "role": "path_only", "final_ensemble_weight": 0.0, "favored_candidate": "Abdul El-Sayed", "least_favored_candidate": "Mallory McMorrow", "evidence": 0.5753896896890776, "favored_signal_score": 0.15392109840044074, "favored_weighted_excess_points": 1.2305604554392957, "favored_breadth_balance": -0.04, "candidates": { "Abdul El-Sayed": { "weighted_excess_points": 1.2305604554392957, "above_benchmark_counties": 11, "below_benchmark_counties": 12, "on_benchmark_counties": 2, "unique_counties": 23, "unique_markets": 7, "votes_scored": 33744.0, "breadth_balance": -0.04, "evidence": 0.5753896896890776, "signal_score": 0.15392109840044074 }, "Haley Stevens": { "weighted_excess_points": -1.4325262214495458, "above_benchmark_counties": 11, "below_benchmark_counties": 13, "on_benchmark_counties": 1, "unique_counties": 23, "unique_markets": 7, "votes_scored": 33744.0, "breadth_balance": -0.08, "evidence": 0.5753896896890776, "signal_score": -0.2021294459174577 }, "Mallory McMorrow": { "weighted_excess_points": -32.167866073645385, "above_benchmark_counties": 0, "below_benchmark_counties": 25, "on_benchmark_counties": 0, "unique_counties": 23, "unique_markets": 7, "votes_scored": 33744.0, "breadth_balance": -1.0, "evidence": 0.5753896896890776, "signal_score": -0.5753896896843229 } }, "intervals": [ { "from_snapshot": 52, "to_snapshot": 53, "new_votes": 8464, "changed_counties": 6, "benchmark_observations_scored": 18 }, { "from_snapshot": 53, "to_snapshot": 54, "new_votes": 10988, "changed_counties": 13, "benchmark_observations_scored": 39 }, { "from_snapshot": 54, "to_snapshot": 55, "new_votes": 14292, "changed_counties": 6, "benchmark_observations_scored": 18 } ], "method_note": "V6 rebuilds county tie benchmarks and the preliminary expert gate exactly as they existed at each prior snapshot, then grades only later-arriving vote. Broad, repeated benchmark beats across independent counties are stronger evidence than one friendly dump." }, "crossover_consensus": { "available": false, "raw_leader": "Abdul El-Sayed", "candidate": null, "eligible": false, "score": 0.0, "independent_families": 0, "required_families": 2, "required_score": 0.075, "maturity_percent_estimate": 44.86182834954185, "candidates": {} }, "turning_point_trust_reallocation": { "available": false, "applied": false, "candidate": "Abdul El-Sayed", "raw_leader": "Abdul El-Sayed", "requested_transfer": 0.0, "applied_transfer": 0.0, "supporters": [], "contradictors": [], "override_caps": {} }, "reference_requested": "/var/www/html/afi_needle_lab/engine/references/library/mi_democratic_library.json", "media_market_source": "/var/www/html/afi_needle_lab/engine/media_markets/mi_media_markets.js" } ], "method_note": "All supplied contested statewide races are evaluated at one common target percentage of eventual vote. Each race uses the nearest historical snapshot within the ordinary checkpoint tolerance. latest.json is scoring-only." }