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Path itself still has 0% direct final weight." }, "completion_benchmark_signal": { "available": true, "role": "final_completion", "favored_candidate": "Cyndi Munson", "evidence": 1.0, "base_evidence": 1.0, "favored_signal_score": 0.999523542568208, "favored_weighted_excess_points": 26.494146182081106, "favored_implied_statewide_margin_lift_points": 1.9972616868978939, "favored_breadth_balance": 1.0, "favored_temporal_persistence": 1.0, "favored_latest_window_lift_points": 2.5595632657589875, "favored_latest_window_vote_share": 0.8286501690484984, "favored_latest_window_weight_share": 0.7726425897387788, "favored_prior_vote_weighted_lift_points": 0.04648840049649943, "favored_regime_reversal": false, "directional": true, "persistent_actionable_pre_maturity": true, "actionable_pre_maturity": true, "validation_quality": 1.0, "validation_mae_points": 0.35, "candidates": { "Cyndi Munson": { "weighted_excess_points": 26.494146182081106, "implied_statewide_margin_lift_points": 1.9972616868978939, "above_benchmark_counties": 30, "below_benchmark_counties": 0, "on_benchmark_counties": 0, "unique_counties": 25, "unique_markets": 7, "votes_scored": 35197.0, "breadth_balance": 1.0, "temporal_persistence": 1.0, "positive_window_weight_share": 1.0, "latest_window_lift_points": 2.5595632657589875, "latest_window_vote_share": 0.8286501690484984, "latest_window_weight_share": 0.7726425897387788, "latest_window_matured_votes": 29166.0, "latest_window_matured_counties": 21, "prior_vote_weighted_lift_points": 0.04648840049649943, "regime_reversal": false, "windows_scored": 3, "evidence": 1.0, "signal_score": 0.999523542568208 }, "Connie Johnson": { "weighted_excess_points": -27.495354122200315, "implied_statewide_margin_lift_points": -2.0551986531903883, "above_benchmark_counties": 0, "below_benchmark_counties": 30, "on_benchmark_counties": 0, "unique_counties": 25, "unique_markets": 7, "votes_scored": 35197.0, "breadth_balance": -1.0, "temporal_persistence": 0.0, "positive_window_weight_share": 0.0, "latest_window_lift_points": -2.6337462406728473, "latest_window_vote_share": 0.8286501690484984, "latest_window_weight_share": 0.7726425897387788, "latest_window_matured_votes": 29166.0, "latest_window_matured_counties": 21, "prior_vote_weighted_lift_points": -0.04795649392851075, "regime_reversal": false, "windows_scored": 3, "evidence": 1.0, "signal_score": -0.999614002390648 }, "Arya": { "weighted_excess_points": -42.74354190955355, "implied_statewide_margin_lift_points": -3.3943415066545457, "above_benchmark_counties": 0, "below_benchmark_counties": 30, "on_benchmark_counties": 0, "unique_counties": 25, "unique_markets": 7, "votes_scored": 35197.0, "breadth_balance": -1.0, "temporal_persistence": 0.0, "positive_window_weight_share": 0.0, "latest_window_lift_points": -4.357634338487114, "latest_window_vote_share": 0.8286501690484984, "latest_window_weight_share": 0.7726425897387788, "latest_window_matured_votes": 29166.0, "latest_window_matured_counties": 21, "prior_vote_weighted_lift_points": -0.06498879292519424, "regime_reversal": false, "windows_scored": 3, "evidence": 1.0, "signal_score": -0.9999970352767372 } }, "windows": [ { "from_snapshot": 3, "to_snapshot": 6, "from_filename": "3.json", "to_filename": "6.json", "span_snapshots": 3, "matured_votes_scored": 4176.0, "matured_counties_scored": 5, "window_margin_lift_points": { "Cyndi Munson": 0.0, "Connie Johnson": 0.0, "Arya": 0.0 } }, { "from_snapshot": 6, "to_snapshot": 9, "from_filename": "6.json", "to_filename": "9.json", "span_snapshots": 3, "matured_votes_scored": 1855.0, "matured_counties_scored": 4, "window_margin_lift_points": { "Cyndi Munson": 0.1511436891613952, "Connie Johnson": -0.15591677352175112, "Arya": -0.21129240438374472 } }, { "from_snapshot": 9, "to_snapshot": 12, "from_filename": "9.json", "to_filename": "12.json", "span_snapshots": 3, "matured_votes_scored": 29166.0, "matured_counties_scored": 21, "window_margin_lift_points": { "Cyndi Munson": 2.5595632657589875, "Connie Johnson": -2.6337462406728473, "Arya": -4.357634338487114 } } ], "matured_votes_scored": 35197.0, "unique_matured_counties": 25, "average_reporting_advance_points": 62.242913316475835, "method_note": "V6.2 Completion Benchmark uses longer material county-maturation windows. Only this benchmark layer is eligible to influence the final Needle; the short-horizon Path Benchmark remains path-only." }, "path_benchmark_signal": { "available": true, "role": "path_only", "final_ensemble_weight": 0.0, "favored_candidate": "Cyndi Munson", "least_favored_candidate": "Arya", "evidence": 1.0, "favored_signal_score": 0.9877419339654354, "favored_weighted_excess_points": 25.650870735519185, "favored_breadth_balance": 0.967741935483871, "candidates": { "Cyndi Munson": { "weighted_excess_points": 25.650870735519185, "above_benchmark_counties": 61, "below_benchmark_counties": 1, "on_benchmark_counties": 0, "unique_counties": 44, "unique_markets": 7, "votes_scored": 31241.0, "breadth_balance": 0.967741935483871, "evidence": 1.0, "signal_score": 0.9877419339654354 }, "Connie Johnson": { "weighted_excess_points": -26.507976212935763, "above_benchmark_counties": 1, "below_benchmark_counties": 61, "on_benchmark_counties": 0, "unique_counties": 44, "unique_markets": 7, "votes_scored": 31241.0, "breadth_balance": -0.967741935483871, "evidence": 1.0, "signal_score": -0.987741934718966 }, "Arya": { "weighted_excess_points": -42.226993658375235, "above_benchmark_counties": 0, "below_benchmark_counties": 62, "on_benchmark_counties": 0, "unique_counties": 44, "unique_markets": 7, "votes_scored": 31241.0, "breadth_balance": -1.0, "evidence": 1.0, "signal_score": -0.9999999999999973 } }, "intervals": [ { "from_snapshot": 9, "to_snapshot": 10, "new_votes": 3106, "changed_counties": 40, "benchmark_observations_scored": 69 }, { "from_snapshot": 10, "to_snapshot": 11, "new_votes": 1583, "changed_counties": 26, "benchmark_observations_scored": 42 }, { "from_snapshot": 11, "to_snapshot": 12, "new_votes": 27430, "changed_counties": 42, "benchmark_observations_scored": 75 } ], "method_note": "V6 rebuilds county tie benchmarks and the preliminary expert gate exactly as they existed at each prior snapshot, then grades only later-arriving vote. Broad, repeated benchmark beats across independent counties are stronger evidence than one friendly dump." }, "crossover_consensus": { "available": false, "raw_leader": "Cyndi Munson", "candidate": null, "eligible": false, "score": 0.0, "independent_families": 0, "required_families": 2, "required_score": 0.055, "maturity_percent_estimate": 60.75579740875844, "candidates": {} }, "turning_point_trust_reallocation": { "available": false, "applied": false, "candidate": "Cyndi Munson", "raw_leader": "Cyndi Munson", "requested_transfer": 0.0, "applied_transfer": 0.0, "supporters": [], "contradictors": [], "override_caps": {} }, "reference_requested": null, "media_market_source": "/var/www/html/afi_needle_lab/engine/media_markets/ok_media_markets.js" }, { "label": "Governor \u2014 Republican", "office": "Governor", "party": "republican", "race_url": "https://data.americafirstinsight.com/Election2026/output/2026/OK/Governor/00/republican/", "race_name": "Oklahoma Governor Republican Primary", "status": "ok", "target_pct": 30.0, "actual_vote_counted_pct": 31.54693945724072, "checkpoint_distance_points": 1.5469394572407182, "checkpoint_tolerance_points": 5.0, "snapshot": "13.json", "snapshot_number": 13, "timestamp": "2026-06-16T20:52:03.466212", "final_leader": "Gentner Drummond", "final_runner_up": "Mike Mazzei", "final_margin_points": 0.2672383615176743, "final_votes": 437063, "raw_current_leader": "Gentner Drummond", "raw_current_margin_points": 0.7680591818973015, "raw_leader_correct": true, "v6_predicted_leader": "Gentner Drummond", "v6_projected_runner_up": "Mike Mazzei", "v6_projected_top_margin_points": 0.8717845570876186, "v6_leader_correct": true, "v6_eventual_winner_margin_error_points": 0.6045461955699438, "v6_absolute_margin_error_points": 0.6045461955699438, "v6_winner_share_error_points": 0.24425041408207804, "v6_candidate_share_mae_points": 0.4470060271604777, "v6_eventual_winner_mc_probability": 0.808, "v6_model_confidence": 0.8114654481553412, "candidate_rank_summary": { "candidates_scored": 9, "exact_rank_calls": 7, "exact_rank_accuracy": 0.7777777777777778, "mean_absolute_rank_error": 0.2222222222222222, "projected_order": [ "Gentner Drummond", "Mike Mazzei", "Chip Keating", "Charles McCall", "Jake A. Merrick", "Leisa Mitchell Haynes", "Jennifer Domenico", "Kenneth Sturgell", "Calup Anthony Taylor" ], "current_order": [ "Gentner Drummond", "Mike Mazzei", "Chip Keating", "Charles McCall", "Jake A. Merrick", "Leisa Mitchell Haynes", "Jennifer Domenico", "Kenneth Sturgell", "Calup Anthony Taylor" ], "final_order_backtest_only": [ "Gentner Drummond", "Mike Mazzei", "Chip Keating", "Jake A. Merrick", "Charles McCall", "Leisa Mitchell Haynes", "Jennifer Domenico", "Kenneth Sturgell", "Calup Anthony Taylor" ], "hidden_movement_candidates": [] }, "candidate_projection_breakdown": [ { "name": "Gentner Drummond", "party": "Republican", "current_votes": 36152, "current_rank": 1, "current_share_points": 26.219901363504494, "projected_rank": 1, "projected_share_points": 26.54000182749387, "projected_change_points": 0.32010046398937675, "projected_rank_movement": 0, "final_rank_backtest_only": 1, "final_share_points_backtest_only": 26.295751413411793, "share_error_points_backtest_only": 0.24425041408207804, "final_rank_movement_backtest_only": 0, "rank_error_backtest_only": 0, "rank_call_correct_backtest_only": true, "hidden_movement": false }, { "name": "Mike Mazzei", "party": "Republican", "current_votes": 35093, "current_rank": 2, "current_share_points": 25.451842181607194, "projected_rank": 2, "projected_share_points": 25.668217270406252, "projected_change_points": 0.2163750887990581, "projected_rank_movement": 0, "final_rank_backtest_only": 2, "final_share_points_backtest_only": 26.02851305189412, "share_error_points_backtest_only": -0.3602957814878671, "final_rank_movement_backtest_only": 0, "rank_error_backtest_only": 0, "rank_call_correct_backtest_only": true, "hidden_movement": false }, { "name": "Chip Keating", "party": "Republican", "current_votes": 23805, "current_rank": 3, "current_share_points": 17.265013054830288, "projected_rank": 3, "projected_share_points": 17.240690659587457, "projected_change_points": -0.024322395242830197, "projected_rank_movement": 0, "final_rank_backtest_only": 3, "final_share_points_backtest_only": 18.154590985738896, "share_error_points_backtest_only": -0.9139003261514382, "final_rank_movement_backtest_only": 0, "rank_error_backtest_only": 0, "rank_call_correct_backtest_only": true, "hidden_movement": false }, { "name": "Charles McCall", "party": "Republican", "current_votes": 19543, "current_rank": 4, "current_share_points": 14.173919350159558, "projected_rank": 4, "projected_share_points": 13.76778363193523, "projected_change_points": -0.4061357182243288, "projected_rank_movement": 0, "final_rank_backtest_only": 5, "final_share_points_backtest_only": 12.156599849449622, "share_error_points_backtest_only": 1.6111837824856075, "final_rank_movement_backtest_only": -1, "rank_error_backtest_only": -1, "rank_call_correct_backtest_only": false, "hidden_movement": false }, { "name": "Jake A. 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"raw_leader": "Bob Sullivan", "raw_top_two_margin_points": 10.151952264052898, "raw_gap_to_candidate_points": 0.0, "actionable": false, "score": 0.7337053746892447, "checks": { "serious_data": false, "completion_direction": true, "regime_reversal": false, "latest_window_dominates": true, "path_confirmation": true, "independent_final_expert": true, "raw_dead_heat_or_same_leader": true }, "failed_checks": [ "serious_data", "regime_reversal" ], "latest_window_lift_points": 0.5241493955907626, "latest_window_vote_share": 0.537054054054054, "latest_window_weight_share": 0.5934369062207763, "prior_vote_weighted_lift_points": 0.21204447276587643, "completion_signal_score": 0.8296745513153497, "completion_evidence": 1.0, "path_signal_score": 0.9299216310582903, "path_breadth_balance": 0.8316831683168316, "path_evidence": 1.0, "independent_supporters": [ { "model": "v1", "family": "county", "quality": 0.5418093868207262, "evidence": 0.8712669624312521, "weight": 0.0, "projected_leader": "Bob 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Broad, repeated benchmark beats across independent counties are stronger evidence than one friendly dump." }, "crossover_consensus": { "available": false, "raw_leader": "Bob Sullivan", "candidate": null, "eligible": false, "score": 0.0, "independent_families": 0, "required_families": 3, "required_score": 0.115, "maturity_percent_estimate": 27.847465160686134, "candidates": {} }, "turning_point_trust_reallocation": { "available": false, "applied": false, "candidate": "Bob Sullivan", "raw_leader": "Bob Sullivan", "requested_transfer": 0.0, "applied_transfer": 0.0, "supporters": [], "contradictors": [], "override_caps": {} }, "reference_requested": "/var/www/html/afi_needle_lab/engine/references/library/ok_republican_library.json", "media_market_source": "/var/www/html/afi_needle_lab/engine/media_markets/ok_media_markets.js" }, { "label": "Lieutenant Governor \u2014 Republican", "office": "Lieutenant_Governor", "party": "republican", "race_url": "https://data.americafirstinsight.com/Election2026/output/2026/OK/Lieutenant_Governor/00/republican/", "race_name": "Oklahoma Lieutenant Governor Republican Primary", "status": "ok", "target_pct": 30.0, "actual_vote_counted_pct": 30.29683438305917, "checkpoint_distance_points": 0.29683438305917065, "checkpoint_tolerance_points": 5.0, "snapshot": "16.json", "snapshot_number": 16, "timestamp": "2026-06-16T21:02:03.200875", "final_leader": "T. W. Shannon", "final_runner_up": "Darrell Weaver", "final_margin_points": 40.734842335631434, "final_votes": 389308, "raw_current_leader": "T. W. Shannon", "raw_current_margin_points": 38.820497168243634, "raw_leader_correct": true, "v6_predicted_leader": "T. W. Shannon", "v6_projected_runner_up": "Darrell Weaver", "v6_projected_top_margin_points": 39.0947405296751, "v6_leader_correct": true, "v6_eventual_winner_margin_error_points": -1.6401018059563341, "v6_absolute_margin_error_points": 1.6401018059563341, "v6_winner_share_error_points": -0.722637375135136, "v6_candidate_share_mae_points": 0.3718439956851866, "v6_eventual_winner_mc_probability": 1.0, "v6_model_confidence": 0.7488907378698094, "candidate_rank_summary": { "candidates_scored": 6, "exact_rank_calls": 6, "exact_rank_accuracy": 1.0, "mean_absolute_rank_error": 0.0, "projected_order": [ "T. W. Shannon", "Darrell Weaver", "Justin JJ Humphrey", "David Ostrowe", "Brian Hill", "H. Victor Flores" ], "current_order": [ "T. W. 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Victor Flores", "party": "Republican", "current_votes": 4421, "current_rank": 6, "current_share_points": 3.7482619459422795, "projected_rank": 6, "projected_share_points": 3.8427280968773925, "projected_change_points": 0.09446615093511301, "projected_rank_movement": 0, "final_rank_backtest_only": 6, "final_share_points_backtest_only": 3.835009812282306, "share_error_points_backtest_only": 0.007718284595086278, "final_rank_movement_backtest_only": 0, "rank_error_backtest_only": 0, "rank_call_correct_backtest_only": true, "hidden_movement": false } ], "turning_point": { "available": true, "candidate": "T. W. Shannon", "raw_leader": "T. W. 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Path itself still has 0% direct final weight." }, "completion_benchmark_signal": { "available": true, "role": "final_completion", "favored_candidate": "Jennettie Marshall", "evidence": 0.989870843226998, "base_evidence": 0.989870843226998, "favored_signal_score": 0.9048464838395333, "favored_weighted_excess_points": 6.9297244092443275, "favored_implied_statewide_margin_lift_points": 0.7570626831255132, "favored_breadth_balance": 0.765625, "favored_temporal_persistence": 1.0, "favored_latest_window_lift_points": 1.0865403841025443, "favored_latest_window_vote_share": 0.6532915792009361, "favored_latest_window_weight_share": 0.6544389874839067, "favored_prior_vote_weighted_lift_points": 0.11100951608103875, "favored_regime_reversal": false, "directional": true, "persistent_actionable_pre_maturity": true, "actionable_pre_maturity": true, "validation_quality": 0.989870843226998, "validation_mae_points": 0.35, "candidates": { "Jennettie Marshall": { "weighted_excess_points": 6.9297244092443275, "implied_statewide_margin_lift_points": 0.7570626831255132, "above_benchmark_counties": 55, "below_benchmark_counties": 6, "on_benchmark_counties": 3, "unique_counties": 45, "unique_markets": 7, "votes_scored": 29059.0, "breadth_balance": 0.765625, "temporal_persistence": 1.0, "positive_window_weight_share": 1.0, "latest_window_lift_points": 1.0865403841025443, "latest_window_vote_share": 0.6532915792009361, "latest_window_weight_share": 0.6544389874839067, "latest_window_matured_votes": 18984.0, "latest_window_matured_counties": 38, "prior_vote_weighted_lift_points": 0.11100951608103875, "regime_reversal": false, "windows_scored": 3, "evidence": 0.989870843226998, "signal_score": 0.9048464838395333 }, "Craig McVay": { "weighted_excess_points": -6.929724409244324, "implied_statewide_margin_lift_points": -0.7570626831255125, "above_benchmark_counties": 6, "below_benchmark_counties": 55, "on_benchmark_counties": 3, "unique_counties": 45, "unique_markets": 7, "votes_scored": 29059.0, "breadth_balance": -0.765625, "temporal_persistence": 0.0, "positive_window_weight_share": 0.0, "latest_window_lift_points": -1.0865403841025432, "latest_window_vote_share": 0.6532915792009361, "latest_window_weight_share": 0.6544389874839067, "latest_window_matured_votes": 18984.0, "latest_window_matured_counties": 38, "prior_vote_weighted_lift_points": -0.11100951608103872, "regime_reversal": false, "windows_scored": 3, "evidence": 0.989870843226998, "signal_score": -0.904846483839533 } }, "windows": [ { "from_snapshot": 3, "to_snapshot": 7, "from_filename": "3.json", "to_filename": "7.json", "span_snapshots": 4, "matured_votes_scored": 4171.0, "matured_counties_scored": 6, "window_margin_lift_points": { "Jennettie Marshall": 0.0014748616110663497, "Craig McVay": -0.0014748616110663443 } }, { "from_snapshot": 7, "to_snapshot": 11, "from_filename": "7.json", "to_filename": "11.json", "span_snapshots": 4, "matured_votes_scored": 5904.0, "matured_counties_scored": 20, "window_margin_lift_points": { "Jennettie Marshall": 0.18839248420337187, "Craig McVay": -0.18839248420337185 } }, { "from_snapshot": 11, "to_snapshot": 15, "from_filename": "11.json", "to_filename": "15.json", "span_snapshots": 4, "matured_votes_scored": 18984.0, "matured_counties_scored": 38, "window_margin_lift_points": { "Jennettie Marshall": 1.0865403841025443, "Craig McVay": -1.0865403841025432 } } ], "matured_votes_scored": 29059.0, "unique_matured_counties": 45, "average_reporting_advance_points": 17.392250593619885, "method_note": "V6.2 Completion Benchmark uses longer material county-maturation windows. Only this benchmark layer is eligible to influence the final Needle; the short-horizon Path Benchmark remains path-only." }, "path_benchmark_signal": { "available": true, "role": "path_only", "final_ensemble_weight": 0.0, "favored_candidate": "Jennettie Marshall", "least_favored_candidate": "Craig McVay", "evidence": 1.0, "favored_signal_score": 0.8261095750847276, "favored_weighted_excess_points": 7.968330175115984, "favored_breadth_balance": 0.547945205479452, "candidates": { "Jennettie Marshall": { "weighted_excess_points": 7.968330175115984, "above_benchmark_counties": 55, "below_benchmark_counties": 15, "on_benchmark_counties": 3, "unique_counties": 48, "unique_markets": 7, "votes_scored": 14536.0, "breadth_balance": 0.547945205479452, "evidence": 1.0, "signal_score": 0.8261095750847276 }, "Craig McVay": { "weighted_excess_points": -7.968330175115982, "above_benchmark_counties": 15, "below_benchmark_counties": 55, "on_benchmark_counties": 3, "unique_counties": 48, "unique_markets": 7, "votes_scored": 14536.0, "breadth_balance": -0.547945205479452, "evidence": 1.0, "signal_score": -0.8261095750847276 } }, "intervals": [ { "from_snapshot": 12, "to_snapshot": 13, "new_votes": 4998, "changed_counties": 52, "benchmark_observations_scored": 60 }, { "from_snapshot": 13, "to_snapshot": 14, "new_votes": 572, "changed_counties": 8, "benchmark_observations_scored": 12 }, { "from_snapshot": 14, "to_snapshot": 15, "new_votes": 9859, "changed_counties": 58, "benchmark_observations_scored": 74 } ], "method_note": "V6 rebuilds county tie benchmarks and the preliminary expert gate exactly as they existed at each prior snapshot, then grades only later-arriving vote. Broad, repeated benchmark beats across independent counties are stronger evidence than one friendly dump." }, "crossover_consensus": { "available": false, "raw_leader": "Jennettie Marshall", "candidate": null, "eligible": false, "score": 0.0, "independent_families": 0, "required_families": 2, "required_score": 0.075, "maturity_percent_estimate": 33.52335223795341, "candidates": {} }, "turning_point_trust_reallocation": { "available": false, "applied": false, "candidate": "Jennettie Marshall", "raw_leader": "Jennettie Marshall", "requested_transfer": 0.0, "applied_transfer": 0.0, "supporters": [], "contradictors": [], "override_caps": {} }, "reference_requested": null, "media_market_source": "/var/www/html/afi_needle_lab/engine/media_markets/ok_media_markets.js" }, { "label": "Superintendent of Public Instruction \u2014 Republican", "office": "Superintendent_of_Public_Instruction", "party": "republican", "race_url": "https://data.americafirstinsight.com/Election2026/output/2026/OK/Superintendent_of_Public_Instruction/00/republican/", "race_name": "Oklahoma Superintendent of Public Instruction Republican Primary", "status": "ok", "target_pct": 30.0, "actual_vote_counted_pct": 30.35685114018291, "checkpoint_distance_points": 0.3568511401829113, "checkpoint_tolerance_points": 5.0, "snapshot": "16.json", "snapshot_number": 16, "timestamp": "2026-06-16T21:02:03.323470", "final_leader": "Robert Franklin", "final_runner_up": "James Taylor", "final_margin_points": 2.9174756631539482, "final_votes": 373405, "raw_current_leader": "Robert Franklin", "raw_current_margin_points": 3.659332709917604, "raw_leader_correct": true, "v6_predicted_leader": "Robert Franklin", "v6_projected_runner_up": "John Cox", "v6_projected_top_margin_points": 3.6804678784759837, "v6_leader_correct": true, "v6_eventual_winner_margin_error_points": 0.7629922153220363, "v6_absolute_margin_error_points": 0.7629922153220363, "v6_winner_share_error_points": 0.3258951773788432, "v6_candidate_share_mae_points": 0.3756947797741109, "v6_eventual_winner_mc_probability": 1.0, "v6_model_confidence": 0.7512463852947155, "candidate_rank_summary": { "candidates_scored": 7, "exact_rank_calls": 5, "exact_rank_accuracy": 0.7142857142857143, "mean_absolute_rank_error": 0.2857142857142857, "projected_order": [ "Robert Franklin", "John Cox", "James Taylor", "Toni Hasenbeck", "Adam Pugh", "Debra A. Herlihy", "William E Crozier" ], "current_order": [ "Robert Franklin", "John Cox", "James Taylor", "Toni Hasenbeck", "Adam Pugh", "Debra A. Herlihy", "William E Crozier" ], "final_order_backtest_only": [ "Robert Franklin", "James Taylor", "John Cox", "Toni Hasenbeck", "Adam Pugh", "Debra A. Herlihy", "William E Crozier" ], "hidden_movement_candidates": [] }, "candidate_projection_breakdown": [ { "name": "Robert Franklin", "party": "Republican", "current_votes": 26062, "current_rank": 1, "current_share_points": 22.99168975069252, "projected_rank": 1, "projected_share_points": 22.92173615433416, "projected_change_points": -0.06995359635835996, "projected_rank_movement": 0, "final_rank_backtest_only": 1, "final_share_points_backtest_only": 22.595840976955316, "share_error_points_backtest_only": 0.3258951773788432, "final_rank_movement_backtest_only": 0, "rank_error_backtest_only": 0, "rank_call_correct_backtest_only": true, "hidden_movement": false }, { "name": "John Cox", "party": "Republican", "current_votes": 21914, "current_rank": 2, "current_share_points": 19.332357040774916, "projected_rank": 2, "projected_share_points": 19.241268275858175, "projected_change_points": -0.09108876491674067, "projected_rank_movement": 0, "final_rank_backtest_only": 3, "final_share_points_backtest_only": 18.413786639171946, "share_error_points_backtest_only": 0.8274816366862296, "final_rank_movement_backtest_only": -1, "rank_error_backtest_only": -1, "rank_call_correct_backtest_only": false, "hidden_movement": false }, { "name": "James Taylor", "party": "Republican", "current_votes": 21820, "current_rank": 3, "current_share_points": 19.249430986114298, "projected_rank": 3, "projected_share_points": 19.18267403341377, "projected_change_points": -0.06675695270052628, "projected_rank_movement": 0, "final_rank_backtest_only": 2, "final_share_points_backtest_only": 19.67836531380137, "share_error_points_backtest_only": -0.4956912803875966, "final_rank_movement_backtest_only": 1, "rank_error_backtest_only": 1, "rank_call_correct_backtest_only": false, "hidden_movement": false }, { "name": "Toni Hasenbeck", "party": "Republican", "current_votes": 17883, "current_rank": 4, "current_share_points": 15.776240803147662, "projected_rank": 4, "projected_share_points": 15.810788484124355, "projected_change_points": 0.034547680976693584, "projected_rank_movement": 0, "final_rank_backtest_only": 4, "final_share_points_backtest_only": 16.595653512941713, "share_error_points_backtest_only": -0.7848650288173573, "final_rank_movement_backtest_only": 0, "rank_error_backtest_only": 0, "rank_call_correct_backtest_only": true, "hidden_movement": false }, { "name": "Adam Pugh", "party": "Republican", "current_votes": 12729, "current_rank": 5, "current_share_points": 11.229422869947244, "projected_rank": 5, "projected_share_points": 11.434137320853349, "projected_change_points": 0.20471445090610452, "projected_rank_movement": 0, "final_rank_backtest_only": 5, "final_share_points_backtest_only": 11.468512740857783, "share_error_points_backtest_only": -0.03437542000443372, "final_rank_movement_backtest_only": 0, "rank_error_backtest_only": 0, "rank_call_correct_backtest_only": true, "hidden_movement": false }, { "name": "Debra A. Herlihy", "party": "Republican", "current_votes": 10717, "current_rank": 6, "current_share_points": 9.454452423381618, "projected_rank": 6, "projected_share_points": 9.469628564376055, "projected_change_points": 0.015176140994437759, "projected_rank_movement": 0, "final_rank_backtest_only": 6, "final_share_points_backtest_only": 9.441758948059078, "share_error_points_backtest_only": 0.02786961631697693, "final_rank_movement_backtest_only": 0, "rank_error_backtest_only": 0, "rank_call_correct_backtest_only": true, "hidden_movement": false }, { "name": "William E Crozier", "party": "Republican", "current_votes": 2229, "current_rank": 7, "current_share_points": 1.96640612594174, "projected_rank": 7, "projected_share_points": 1.9397671670401357, "projected_change_points": -0.02663895890160428, "projected_rank_movement": 0, "final_rank_backtest_only": 7, "final_share_points_backtest_only": 1.8060818682127986, "share_error_points_backtest_only": 0.13368529882733715, "final_rank_movement_backtest_only": 0, "rank_error_backtest_only": 0, "rank_call_correct_backtest_only": true, "hidden_movement": false } ], "turning_point": { "available": true, "candidate": "Robert Franklin", "raw_leader": "Robert Franklin", "raw_top_two_margin_points": 3.659332709917604, "raw_gap_to_candidate_points": 0.0, "actionable": false, "score": 0.5402035614828766, "checks": { "serious_data": false, "completion_direction": true, "regime_reversal": false, "latest_window_dominates": true, "path_confirmation": true, "independent_final_expert": true, "raw_dead_heat_or_same_leader": true }, "failed_checks": [ "serious_data", "regime_reversal" ], "latest_window_lift_points": 0.10597822394273172, "latest_window_vote_share": 0.5414150411988944, "latest_window_weight_share": 0.5956750110609984, "prior_vote_weighted_lift_points": 0.0453200888111562, "completion_signal_score": 0.37547677109803657, "completion_evidence": 1.0, "path_signal_score": 0.32015845080622984, "path_breadth_balance": 0.13861386138613863, "path_evidence": 1.0, "independent_supporters": [ { "model": "v1", "family": "county", "quality": 0.5731620588948096, "evidence": 0.8700634487833256, "weight": 0.0, "projected_leader": "Robert Franklin" }, { "model": "v3", "family": "remaining", "quality": 0.5733397459530386, "evidence": 0.9733071319929656, "weight": 0.0, "projected_leader": "Robert Franklin" }, { "model": "histgeo", "family": "historical", "quality": 0.6378511886336294, "evidence": 1.0, "weight": 0.0, "projected_leader": "Robert Franklin" }, { "model": "batchbias", "family": "reporting_order", "quality": 0.6429606439948106, "evidence": 1.0, "weight": 0.0, "projected_leader": "Robert Franklin" } ], "independent_families": 4, "score_parts": { "maturity": 0.0, "latest_vote_dominance": 0.6094336079926292, "latest_weight_dominance": 0.59796881913124, "latest_lift": 0.35326074647577244, "path": 0.7114632240138441, "path_breadth": 0.4620462046204621, "independent": 1.0 }, "method_note": "Turning-Point Consensus requires the newest material Completion window to dominate the matured vote mass, reverse the older regime, and receive independent confirmation from the Path Benchmark plus at least one validated final-oriented expert. Path itself still has 0% direct final weight." }, "completion_benchmark_signal": { "available": true, "role": "final_completion", "favored_candidate": "Robert Franklin", "evidence": 1.0, "base_evidence": 1.0, "favored_signal_score": 0.37547677109803657, "favored_weighted_excess_points": 1.3229477432633197, "favored_implied_statewide_margin_lift_points": 0.08207075461203574, "favored_breadth_balance": 0.22727272727272727, "favored_temporal_persistence": 1.0, "favored_latest_window_lift_points": 0.10597822394273172, "favored_latest_window_vote_share": 0.5414150411988944, "favored_latest_window_weight_share": 0.5956750110609984, "favored_prior_vote_weighted_lift_points": 0.0453200888111562, "favored_regime_reversal": false, "directional": true, "persistent_actionable_pre_maturity": true, "actionable_pre_maturity": true, "validation_quality": 0.9420374886318061, "validation_mae_points": 0.35, "candidates": { "Robert Franklin": { "weighted_excess_points": 1.3229477432633197, "implied_statewide_margin_lift_points": 0.08207075461203574, "above_benchmark_counties": 55, "below_benchmark_counties": 30, "on_benchmark_counties": 25, "unique_counties": 65, "unique_markets": 8, "votes_scored": 76337.0, "breadth_balance": 0.22727272727272727, "temporal_persistence": 1.0, "positive_window_weight_share": 1.0, "latest_window_lift_points": 0.10597822394273172, "latest_window_vote_share": 0.5414150411988944, "latest_window_weight_share": 0.5956750110609984, "latest_window_matured_votes": 41330.0, "latest_window_matured_counties": 57, "prior_vote_weighted_lift_points": 0.0453200888111562, "regime_reversal": false, "windows_scored": 3, "evidence": 1.0, "signal_score": 0.37547677109803657 }, "John Cox": { "weighted_excess_points": -3.256412884058935, "implied_statewide_margin_lift_points": -0.26574365895380275, "above_benchmark_counties": 17, "below_benchmark_counties": 82, "on_benchmark_counties": 11, "unique_counties": 65, "unique_markets": 8, "votes_scored": 76337.0, "breadth_balance": -0.5909090909090909, "temporal_persistence": 0.0, "positive_window_weight_share": 0.0, "latest_window_lift_points": -0.3541099703515621, "latest_window_vote_share": 0.5414150411988944, "latest_window_weight_share": 0.5956750110609984, "latest_window_matured_votes": 41330.0, "latest_window_matured_counties": 57, "prior_vote_weighted_lift_points": -0.13154799650898988, "regime_reversal": false, "windows_scored": 3, "evidence": 1.0, "signal_score": -0.686653675886844 }, "James Taylor": { "weighted_excess_points": -1.3099232399151577, "implied_statewide_margin_lift_points": -0.08621903340735157, "above_benchmark_counties": 31, "below_benchmark_counties": 62, "on_benchmark_counties": 17, "unique_counties": 65, "unique_markets": 8, "votes_scored": 76337.0, "breadth_balance": -0.2818181818181818, "temporal_persistence": 0.0, "positive_window_weight_share": 0.0, "latest_window_lift_points": -0.10058956494229648, "latest_window_vote_share": 0.5414150411988944, "latest_window_weight_share": 0.5956750110609984, "latest_window_matured_votes": 41330.0, "latest_window_matured_counties": 57, "prior_vote_weighted_lift_points": -0.0625504121479165, "regime_reversal": false, "windows_scored": 3, "evidence": 1.0, "signal_score": -0.3862818960391604 }, "Toni Hasenbeck": { "weighted_excess_points": -3.269539376529081, "implied_statewide_margin_lift_points": -0.2481873380593716, "above_benchmark_counties": 16, "below_benchmark_counties": 88, "on_benchmark_counties": 6, "unique_counties": 65, "unique_markets": 8, "votes_scored": 76337.0, "breadth_balance": -0.6545454545454545, "temporal_persistence": 0.0, "positive_window_weight_share": 0.0, "latest_window_lift_points": -0.3051855990416101, "latest_window_vote_share": 0.5414150411988944, "latest_window_weight_share": 0.5956750110609984, "latest_window_matured_votes": 41330.0, "latest_window_matured_counties": 57, "prior_vote_weighted_lift_points": -0.15985800354592297, "regime_reversal": false, "windows_scored": 3, "evidence": 1.0, "signal_score": -0.689827170612783 }, "Adam Pugh": { "weighted_excess_points": -7.090854849551244, "implied_statewide_margin_lift_points": -0.5359596319505935, "above_benchmark_counties": 0, "below_benchmark_counties": 109, "on_benchmark_counties": 1, "unique_counties": 65, "unique_markets": 8, "votes_scored": 76337.0, "breadth_balance": -0.990909090909091, "temporal_persistence": 0.0, "positive_window_weight_share": 0.0, "latest_window_lift_points": -0.692535170292375, "latest_window_vote_share": 0.5414150411988944, "latest_window_weight_share": 0.5956750110609984, "latest_window_matured_votes": 41330.0, "latest_window_matured_counties": 57, "prior_vote_weighted_lift_points": -0.2906808096612779, "regime_reversal": false, "windows_scored": 3, "evidence": 1.0, "signal_score": -0.9109846323430462 }, "Debra A. Herlihy": { "weighted_excess_points": -7.305532027025739, "implied_statewide_margin_lift_points": -0.5537021838643668, "above_benchmark_counties": 0, "below_benchmark_counties": 109, "on_benchmark_counties": 1, "unique_counties": 65, "unique_markets": 8, "votes_scored": 76337.0, "breadth_balance": -0.990909090909091, "temporal_persistence": 0.0, "positive_window_weight_share": 0.0, "latest_window_lift_points": -0.7070290222527994, "latest_window_vote_share": 0.5414150411988944, "latest_window_weight_share": 0.5956750110609984, "latest_window_matured_votes": 41330.0, "latest_window_matured_counties": 57, "prior_vote_weighted_lift_points": -0.3126319020252918, "regime_reversal": false, "windows_scored": 3, "evidence": 1.0, "signal_score": -0.916067292969593 }, "William E Crozier": { "weighted_excess_points": -11.8080784696244, "implied_statewide_margin_lift_points": -0.9106564422535781, "above_benchmark_counties": 0, "below_benchmark_counties": 110, "on_benchmark_counties": 0, "unique_counties": 65, "unique_markets": 8, "votes_scored": 76337.0, "breadth_balance": -1.0, "temporal_persistence": 0.0, "positive_window_weight_share": 0.0, "latest_window_lift_points": -1.1780435264350693, "latest_window_vote_share": 0.5414150411988944, "latest_window_weight_share": 0.5956750110609984, "latest_window_matured_votes": 41330.0, "latest_window_matured_counties": 57, "prior_vote_weighted_lift_points": -0.49480099795079924, "regime_reversal": false, "windows_scored": 3, "evidence": 1.0, "signal_score": -0.97601791547722 } }, "windows": [ { "from_snapshot": 4, "to_snapshot": 8, "from_filename": "4.json", "to_filename": "8.json", "span_snapshots": 4, "matured_votes_scored": 11447.0, "matured_counties_scored": 14, "window_margin_lift_points": { "Robert Franklin": 0.03030967228960463, "John Cox": -0.09218296023280927, "James Taylor": -0.03803253954540726, "Toni Hasenbeck": -0.1170869231504782, "Adam Pugh": -0.14730521636639732, "Debra A. 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Joe Cassity Jr.": { "weighted_excess_points": -21.685086175056444, "above_benchmark_counties": 0, "below_benchmark_counties": 84, "on_benchmark_counties": 0, "unique_counties": 47, "unique_markets": 7, "votes_scored": 14359.0, "breadth_balance": -1.0, "evidence": 1.0, "signal_score": -0.9999999637547533 } }, "intervals": [ { "from_snapshot": 12, "to_snapshot": 13, "new_votes": 4964, "changed_counties": 52, "benchmark_observations_scored": 150 }, { "from_snapshot": 13, "to_snapshot": 14, "new_votes": 4892, "changed_counties": 39, "benchmark_observations_scored": 130 }, { "from_snapshot": 14, "to_snapshot": 15, "new_votes": 5476, "changed_counties": 43, "benchmark_observations_scored": 140 } ], "method_note": "V6 rebuilds county tie benchmarks and the preliminary expert gate exactly as they existed at each prior snapshot, then grades only later-arriving vote. 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"Oklahoma US Senate Republican Primary", "status": "ok", "target_pct": 30.0, "actual_vote_counted_pct": 27.610827468237076, "checkpoint_distance_points": 2.3891725317629238, "checkpoint_tolerance_points": 5.0, "snapshot": "15.json", "snapshot_number": 15, "timestamp": "2026-06-16T21:00:05.999092", "final_leader": "Kevin Hern", "final_runner_up": "Gary Ty England", "final_margin_points": 56.215609208309935, "final_votes": 382915, "raw_current_leader": "Kevin Hern", "raw_current_margin_points": 52.847927662069885, "raw_leader_correct": true, "v6_predicted_leader": "Kevin Hern", "v6_projected_runner_up": "Gary Ty England", "v6_projected_top_margin_points": 53.7086438261621, "v6_leader_correct": true, "v6_eventual_winner_margin_error_points": -2.5069653821478326, "v6_absolute_margin_error_points": 2.5069653821478326, "v6_winner_share_error_points": -1.8849895015913773, "v6_candidate_share_mae_points": 0.7539958006365508, "v6_eventual_winner_mc_probability": 1.0, "v6_model_confidence": 0.7337879919668799, "candidate_rank_summary": { "candidates_scored": 5, "exact_rank_calls": 5, "exact_rank_accuracy": 1.0, "mean_absolute_rank_error": 0.0, "projected_order": [ "Kevin Hern", "Gary Ty England", "Sean Buckner", "Brian Ragain", "Nick Hankins" ], "current_order": [ "Kevin Hern", "Gary Ty England", "Sean Buckner", "Brian Ragain", "Nick Hankins" ], "final_order_backtest_only": [ "Kevin Hern", "Gary Ty England", "Sean Buckner", "Brian Ragain", "Nick Hankins" ], "hidden_movement_candidates": [] }, "candidate_projection_breakdown": [ { "name": "Kevin Hern", "party": "Republican", "current_votes": 71222, "current_rank": 1, "current_share_points": 67.36469742542043, "projected_rank": 1, "projected_share_points": 67.87331194912223, "projected_change_points": 0.5086145237017945, "projected_rank_movement": 0, "final_rank_backtest_only": 1, "final_share_points_backtest_only": 69.7583014507136, "share_error_points_backtest_only": -1.8849895015913773, "final_rank_movement_backtest_only": 0, "rank_error_backtest_only": 0, "rank_call_correct_backtest_only": true, "hidden_movement": false }, { "name": "Gary Ty England", "party": "Republican", "current_votes": 15348, "current_rank": 2, "current_share_points": 14.516769763350549, "projected_rank": 2, "projected_share_points": 14.16466812296012, "projected_change_points": -0.3521016403904298, "projected_rank_movement": 0, "final_rank_backtest_only": 2, "final_share_points_backtest_only": 13.542692242403668, "share_error_points_backtest_only": 0.6219758805564517, "final_rank_movement_backtest_only": 0, "rank_error_backtest_only": 0, "rank_call_correct_backtest_only": true, "hidden_movement": false }, { "name": "Sean Buckner", "party": "Republican", "current_votes": 8001, "current_rank": 3, "current_share_points": 7.5676749333182, "projected_rank": 3, "projected_share_points": 7.439561000405094, "projected_change_points": -0.1281139329131058, "projected_rank_movement": 0, "final_rank_backtest_only": 3, "final_share_points_backtest_only": 6.901009362391131, "share_error_points_backtest_only": 0.5385516380139634, "final_rank_movement_backtest_only": 0, "rank_error_backtest_only": 0, "rank_call_correct_backtest_only": true, "hidden_movement": false }, { "name": "Brian Ragain", "party": "Republican", "current_votes": 6856, "current_rank": 4, "current_share_points": 6.4846868319996975, "projected_rank": 4, "projected_share_points": 6.507931401714134, "projected_change_points": 0.023244569714436558, "projected_rank_movement": 0, "final_rank_backtest_only": 4, "final_share_points_backtest_only": 5.867098442213024, "share_error_points_backtest_only": 0.6408329595011102, "final_rank_movement_backtest_only": 0, "rank_error_backtest_only": 0, "rank_call_correct_backtest_only": true, "hidden_movement": false }, { "name": "Nick Hankins", "party": "Republican", "current_votes": 4299, "current_rank": 5, "current_share_points": 4.066171045911129, "projected_rank": 5, "projected_share_points": 4.014527525798429, "projected_change_points": -0.0516435201126999, "projected_rank_movement": 0, "final_rank_backtest_only": 5, "final_share_points_backtest_only": 3.9308985022785734, "share_error_points_backtest_only": 0.08362902351985557, "final_rank_movement_backtest_only": 0, "rank_error_backtest_only": 0, "rank_call_correct_backtest_only": true, "hidden_movement": false } ], "turning_point": { "available": true, "candidate": "Kevin Hern", "raw_leader": "Kevin Hern", "raw_top_two_margin_points": 52.847927662069885, "raw_gap_to_candidate_points": 0.0, "actionable": false, "score": 0.8073794345883057, "checks": { "serious_data": false, "completion_direction": true, "regime_reversal": false, "latest_window_dominates": true, "path_confirmation": true, "independent_final_expert": true, "raw_dead_heat_or_same_leader": true }, "failed_checks": [ "serious_data", "regime_reversal" ], "latest_window_lift_points": 2.7176905363428934, "latest_window_vote_share": 0.5767132961699698, "latest_window_weight_share": 0.616875926106344, "prior_vote_weighted_lift_points": 0.8524739903532189, "completion_signal_score": 0.9947685425608526, "completion_evidence": 0.9952130432387221, "path_signal_score": 0.9999999999649488, "path_breadth_balance": 1.0, "path_evidence": 1.0, "independent_supporters": [ { "model": "v1", "family": "county", "quality": 0.6002029969467344, "evidence": 0.8721744039523484, "weight": 0.0, "projected_leader": "Kevin Hern" }, { "model": "v3", "family": "remaining", "quality": 0.5286654993375832, "evidence": 0.9786134660542127, "weight": 0.0, "projected_leader": "Kevin Hern" }, { "model": "histgeo", "family": "historical", "quality": 0.6127491163335624, "evidence": 1.0, "weight": 0.0, "projected_leader": "Kevin Hern" }, { "model": "batchbias", "family": "reporting_order", "quality": 0.650330294459595, "evidence": 1.0, "weight": 0.0, "projected_leader": "Kevin Hern" } ], "independent_families": 4, "score_parts": { "maturity": 0.0, "latest_vote_dominance": 0.8447553077997987, "latest_weight_dominance": 0.73047453816465, "latest_lift": 1.0, "path": 1.0, "path_breadth": 1.0, "independent": 1.0 }, "method_note": "Turning-Point Consensus requires the newest material Completion window to dominate the matured vote mass, reverse the older regime, and receive independent confirmation from the Path Benchmark plus at least one validated final-oriented expert. Path itself still has 0% direct final weight." }, "completion_benchmark_signal": { "available": true, "role": "final_completion", "favored_candidate": "Kevin Hern", "evidence": 0.9952130432387221, "base_evidence": 0.9952130432387221, "favored_signal_score": 0.9947685425608526, "favored_weighted_excess_points": 28.667142155752423, "favored_implied_statewide_margin_lift_points": 2.015046328764786, "favored_breadth_balance": 1.0, "favored_temporal_persistence": 1.0, "favored_latest_window_lift_points": 2.7176905363428934, "favored_latest_window_vote_share": 0.5767132961699698, "favored_latest_window_weight_share": 0.616875926106344, "favored_prior_vote_weighted_lift_points": 0.8524739903532189, "favored_regime_reversal": false, "directional": true, "persistent_actionable_pre_maturity": true, "actionable_pre_maturity": true, "validation_quality": 0.9952130432387221, "validation_mae_points": 0.35, "candidates": { "Kevin Hern": { "weighted_excess_points": 28.667142155752423, "implied_statewide_margin_lift_points": 2.015046328764786, "above_benchmark_counties": 97, "below_benchmark_counties": 0, "on_benchmark_counties": 0, "unique_counties": 62, "unique_markets": 7, "votes_scored": 66553.0, "breadth_balance": 1.0, "temporal_persistence": 1.0, "positive_window_weight_share": 1.0, "latest_window_lift_points": 2.7176905363428934, "latest_window_vote_share": 0.5767132961699698, "latest_window_weight_share": 0.616875926106344, "latest_window_matured_votes": 38382.0, "latest_window_matured_counties": 54, "prior_vote_weighted_lift_points": 0.8524739903532189, "regime_reversal": false, "windows_scored": 3, "evidence": 0.9952130432387221, "signal_score": 0.9947685425608526 }, "Gary Ty England": { "weighted_excess_points": -28.78353149257353, "implied_statewide_margin_lift_points": -1.9898037134079203, "above_benchmark_counties": 0, "below_benchmark_counties": 97, "on_benchmark_counties": 0, "unique_counties": 62, "unique_markets": 7, "votes_scored": 66553.0, "breadth_balance": -1.0, "temporal_persistence": 0.0, "positive_window_weight_share": 0.0, "latest_window_lift_points": -2.6740510638516017, "latest_window_vote_share": 0.5767132961699698, "latest_window_weight_share": 0.616875926106344, "latest_window_matured_votes": 38382.0, "latest_window_matured_counties": 54, "prior_vote_weighted_lift_points": -0.8570908186694713, "regime_reversal": false, "windows_scored": 3, "evidence": 0.9952130432387221, "signal_score": -0.9947258407937457 }, "Sean Buckner": { "weighted_excess_points": -32.62510654292222, "implied_statewide_margin_lift_points": -2.2851528825764236, "above_benchmark_counties": 0, "below_benchmark_counties": 97, "on_benchmark_counties": 0, "unique_counties": 62, "unique_markets": 7, "votes_scored": 66553.0, "breadth_balance": -1.0, "temporal_persistence": 0.0, "positive_window_weight_share": 0.0, "latest_window_lift_points": -3.068767031864265, "latest_window_vote_share": 0.5767132961699698, "latest_window_weight_share": 0.616875926106344, "latest_window_matured_votes": 38382.0, "latest_window_matured_counties": 54, "prior_vote_weighted_lift_points": -0.9856023958969451, "regime_reversal": false, "windows_scored": 3, "evidence": 0.9952130432387221, "signal_score": -0.9950465163648862 }, "Brian Ragain": { "weighted_excess_points": -33.07878246074695, "implied_statewide_margin_lift_points": -2.336369402297523, "above_benchmark_counties": 0, "below_benchmark_counties": 97, "on_benchmark_counties": 0, "unique_counties": 62, "unique_markets": 7, "votes_scored": 66553.0, "breadth_balance": -1.0, "temporal_persistence": 0.0, "positive_window_weight_share": 0.0, "latest_window_lift_points": -3.153417232671808, "latest_window_vote_share": 0.5767132961699698, "latest_window_weight_share": 0.616875926106344, "latest_window_matured_votes": 38382.0, "latest_window_matured_counties": 54, "prior_vote_weighted_lift_points": -0.9774584703925654, "regime_reversal": false, "windows_scored": 3, "evidence": 0.9952130432387221, "signal_score": -0.9950748080331625 }, "Nick Hankins": { "weighted_excess_points": -34.598690458110845, "implied_statewide_margin_lift_points": -2.428121080284644, "above_benchmark_counties": 0, "below_benchmark_counties": 97, "on_benchmark_counties": 0, "unique_counties": 62, "unique_markets": 7, "votes_scored": 66553.0, "breadth_balance": -1.0, "temporal_persistence": 0.0, "positive_window_weight_share": 0.0, "latest_window_lift_points": -3.275312568434599, "latest_window_vote_share": 0.5767132961699698, "latest_window_weight_share": 0.616875926106344, "latest_window_matured_votes": 38382.0, "latest_window_matured_counties": 54, "prior_vote_weighted_lift_points": -1.0208946120338003, "regime_reversal": false, "windows_scored": 3, "evidence": 0.9952130432387221, "signal_score": -0.9951140182631979 } }, "windows": [ { "from_snapshot": 3, "to_snapshot": 7, "from_filename": "3.json", "to_filename": "7.json", "span_snapshots": 4, "matured_votes_scored": 11642.0, "matured_counties_scored": 14, "window_margin_lift_points": { "Kevin Hern": 0.6967541434986131, "Gary Ty England": -0.7025591050755425, "Sean Buckner": -0.7969401449913229, "Brian Ragain": -0.7612318502170398, "Nick Hankins": -0.8057618779851686 } }, { "from_snapshot": 7, "to_snapshot": 11, "from_filename": "7.json", "to_filename": "11.json", "span_snapshots": 4, "matured_votes_scored": 16529.0, "matured_counties_scored": 29, "window_margin_lift_points": { "Kevin Hern": 0.962153369449433, "Gary Ty England": -0.9659333505625392, "Sean Buckner": -1.1184843563932396, "Brian Ragain": -1.129755058938967, "Nick Hankins": -1.172420735198793 } }, { "from_snapshot": 11, "to_snapshot": 15, "from_filename": "11.json", "to_filename": "15.json", "span_snapshots": 4, "matured_votes_scored": 38382.0, "matured_counties_scored": 54, "window_margin_lift_points": { "Kevin Hern": 2.7176905363428934, "Gary Ty England": -2.6740510638516017, "Sean Buckner": -3.068767031864265, "Brian Ragain": -3.153417232671808, "Nick Hankins": -3.275312568434599 } } ], "matured_votes_scored": 66553.0, "unique_matured_counties": 62, "average_reporting_advance_points": 17.712782594323333, "method_note": "V6.2 Completion Benchmark uses longer material county-maturation windows. Only this benchmark layer is eligible to influence the final Needle; the short-horizon Path Benchmark remains path-only." }, "path_benchmark_signal": { "available": true, "role": "path_only", "final_ensemble_weight": 0.0, "favored_candidate": "Kevin Hern", "least_favored_candidate": "Nick Hankins", "evidence": 1.0, "favored_signal_score": 0.9999999999649488, "favored_weighted_excess_points": 30.361653805389757, "favored_breadth_balance": 1.0, "candidates": { "Kevin Hern": { "weighted_excess_points": 30.361653805389757, "above_benchmark_counties": 126, "below_benchmark_counties": 0, "on_benchmark_counties": 0, "unique_counties": 69, "unique_markets": 8, "votes_scored": 34774.0, "breadth_balance": 1.0, "evidence": 1.0, "signal_score": 0.9999999999649488 }, "Gary Ty England": { "weighted_excess_points": -30.07318610431842, "above_benchmark_counties": 0, "below_benchmark_counties": 126, "on_benchmark_counties": 0, "unique_counties": 69, "unique_markets": 8, "votes_scored": 34774.0, "breadth_balance": -1.0, "evidence": 1.0, "signal_score": -0.9999999999558504 }, "Sean Buckner": { "weighted_excess_points": -33.853113889718735, "above_benchmark_counties": 0, "below_benchmark_counties": 126, "on_benchmark_counties": 0, "unique_counties": 69, "unique_markets": 8, "votes_scored": 34774.0, "breadth_balance": -1.0, "evidence": 1.0, "signal_score": -0.9999999999978539 }, "Brian Ragain": { "weighted_excess_points": -34.33371853607761, "above_benchmark_counties": 0, "below_benchmark_counties": 126, "on_benchmark_counties": 0, "unique_counties": 69, "unique_markets": 8, "votes_scored": 34774.0, "breadth_balance": -1.0, "evidence": 1.0, "signal_score": -0.999999999998539 }, "Nick Hankins": { "weighted_excess_points": -35.88660998139001, "above_benchmark_counties": 0, "below_benchmark_counties": 126, "on_benchmark_counties": 0, "unique_counties": 69, "unique_markets": 8, "votes_scored": 34774.0, "breadth_balance": -1.0, "evidence": 1.0, "signal_score": -0.9999999999995782 } }, "intervals": [ { "from_snapshot": 12, "to_snapshot": 13, "new_votes": 12267, "changed_counties": 56, "benchmark_observations_scored": 270 }, { "from_snapshot": 13, "to_snapshot": 14, "new_votes": 11217, "changed_counties": 35, "benchmark_observations_scored": 165 }, { "from_snapshot": 14, "to_snapshot": 15, "new_votes": 11511, "changed_counties": 43, "benchmark_observations_scored": 195 } ], "method_note": "V6 rebuilds county tie benchmarks and the preliminary expert gate exactly as they existed at each prior snapshot, then grades only later-arriving vote. Broad, repeated benchmark beats across independent counties are stronger evidence than one friendly dump." }, "crossover_consensus": { "available": false, "raw_leader": "Kevin Hern", "candidate": null, "eligible": false, "score": 0.0, "independent_families": 0, "required_families": 3, "required_score": 0.115, "maturity_percent_estimate": 26.241034353444704, "candidates": {} }, "turning_point_trust_reallocation": { "available": false, "applied": false, "candidate": "Kevin Hern", "raw_leader": "Kevin Hern", "requested_transfer": 0.0, "applied_transfer": 0.0, "supporters": [], "contradictors": [], "override_caps": {} }, "reference_requested": "/var/www/html/afi_needle_lab/engine/references/library/ok_republican_library.json", "media_market_source": "/var/www/html/afi_needle_lab/engine/media_markets/ok_media_markets.js" } ], "method_note": "All supplied contested statewide races are evaluated at one common target percentage of eventual vote. Each race uses the nearest historical snapshot within the ordinary checkpoint tolerance. latest.json is scoring-only." }