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Only this benchmark layer is eligible to influence the final Needle; the short-horizon Path Benchmark remains path-only." }, "path_benchmark_signal": { "available": true, "role": "path_only", "final_ensemble_weight": 0.0, "favored_candidate": "Robert Franklin", "least_favored_candidate": "James Taylor", "evidence": 1.0, "favored_signal_score": 0.8477192768517482, "favored_weighted_excess_points": 5.756103339227698, "favored_breadth_balance": 0.631578947368421, "candidates": { "Robert Franklin": { "weighted_excess_points": 5.756103339227698, "above_benchmark_counties": 89, "below_benchmark_counties": 17, "on_benchmark_counties": 8, "unique_counties": 65, "unique_markets": 8, "votes_scored": 41432.0, "breadth_balance": 0.631578947368421, "evidence": 1.0, "signal_score": 0.8477192768517482 }, "James Taylor": { "weighted_excess_points": -5.756103339227694, "above_benchmark_counties": 17, "below_benchmark_counties": 89, "on_benchmark_counties": 8, "unique_counties": 65, "unique_markets": 8, "votes_scored": 41432.0, "breadth_balance": -0.631578947368421, "evidence": 1.0, "signal_score": -0.8477192768517481 } }, "intervals": [ { "from_snapshot": 17, "to_snapshot": 18, "new_votes": 10368, "changed_counties": 41, "benchmark_observations_scored": 78 }, { "from_snapshot": 18, "to_snapshot": 19, "new_votes": 19459, "changed_counties": 53, "benchmark_observations_scored": 98 }, { "from_snapshot": 19, "to_snapshot": 20, "new_votes": 11824, "changed_counties": 28, "benchmark_observations_scored": 52 } ], "method_note": "V6 rebuilds county tie benchmarks and the preliminary expert gate exactly as they existed at each prior snapshot, then grades only later-arriving vote. Broad, repeated benchmark beats across independent counties are stronger evidence than one friendly dump." }, "crossover_consensus": { "available": false, "raw_leader": "Robert Franklin", "candidate": null, "eligible": false, "score": 0.0, "independent_families": 0, "required_families": 2, "required_score": 0.075, "maturity_percent_estimate": 42.06679694486286, "candidates": {} }, "turning_point_trust_reallocation": { "available": false, "applied": false, "candidate": "Robert Franklin", "raw_leader": "Robert Franklin", "requested_transfer": 0.0, "applied_transfer": 0.0, "supporters": [], "contradictors": [], "override_caps": {} }, "reference_requested": "/var/www/html/afi_needle_lab/engine/references/library/ok_republican_library.json", "media_market_source": "/var/www/html/afi_needle_lab/engine/media_markets/ok_media_markets.js" }, { "label": "US Senate \u2014 Democratic", "office": "US_Senate", "party": "democratic", "race_url": "https://data.americafirstinsight.com/Election2026/output/2026/OK/Runoff/US_Senate/00/democratic/", "race_name": "Oklahoma US Senate Democratic Primary Runoff", "status": "ok", "target_pct": 40.0, "actual_vote_counted_pct": 40.70643314611516, "checkpoint_distance_points": 0.7064331461151596, "checkpoint_tolerance_points": 7.5, "snapshot": "21.json", "snapshot_number": 21, "timestamp": "2026-08-25T21:05:03.111214", "final_leader": "N\u2019Kiyla Thomas", "final_runner_up": "Jim Priest", "final_margin_points": 22.3757909130942, "final_votes": 129439, "raw_current_leader": "N\u2019Kiyla Thomas", "raw_current_margin_points": 17.236667299297782, "raw_leader_correct": true, "v6_predicted_leader": "N\u2019Kiyla Thomas", "v6_projected_runner_up": "Jim Priest", "v6_projected_top_margin_points": 18.981915873570188, "v6_leader_correct": true, "v6_eventual_winner_margin_error_points": -3.393875039524012, "v6_absolute_margin_error_points": 3.393875039524012, "v6_winner_share_error_points": 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"final_rank_movement_backtest_only": 0, "rank_error_backtest_only": 0, "rank_call_correct_backtest_only": true, "hidden_movement": false }, { "name": "Jim Priest", "party": "Democratic", "current_votes": 21804, "current_rank": 2, "current_share_points": 41.38166635035111, "projected_rank": 2, "projected_share_points": 40.509042063214906, "projected_change_points": -0.8726242871362047, "projected_rank_movement": 0, "final_rank_backtest_only": 2, "final_share_points_backtest_only": 38.812104543452904, "share_error_points_backtest_only": 1.6969375197620025, "final_rank_movement_backtest_only": 0, "rank_error_backtest_only": 0, "rank_call_correct_backtest_only": true, "hidden_movement": false } ], "turning_point": { "available": true, "candidate": "N\u2019Kiyla Thomas", "raw_leader": "N\u2019Kiyla Thomas", "raw_top_two_margin_points": 17.236667299297782, "raw_gap_to_candidate_points": 0.0, "actionable": false, "score": 0.6037164755647833, "checks": { "serious_data": true, 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1.0, "path_breadth": 1.0, "independent": 0.5 }, "method_note": "Turning-Point Consensus requires the newest material Completion window to dominate the matured vote mass, reverse the older regime, and receive independent confirmation from the Path Benchmark plus at least one validated final-oriented expert. Path itself still has 0% direct final weight." }, "completion_benchmark_signal": { "available": true, "role": "final_completion", "favored_candidate": "N\u2019Kiyla Thomas", "evidence": 1.0, "base_evidence": 1.0, "favored_signal_score": 0.9177486729311632, "favored_weighted_excess_points": 8.320270862310498, "favored_implied_statewide_margin_lift_points": 1.681007617992504, "favored_breadth_balance": 0.5568181818181818, "favored_temporal_persistence": 1.0, "favored_latest_window_lift_points": 2.011205888398483, "favored_latest_window_vote_share": 0.4403566647542551, "favored_latest_window_weight_share": 0.550901361190866, "favored_prior_vote_weighted_lift_points": 1.1891209037545882, "favored_regime_reversal": false, "directional": true, "persistent_actionable_pre_maturity": true, "actionable_pre_maturity": true, "validation_quality": 1.0, "validation_mae_points": 0.35, "candidates": { "N\u2019Kiyla Thomas": { "weighted_excess_points": 8.320270862310498, "implied_statewide_margin_lift_points": 1.681007617992504, "above_benchmark_counties": 66, "below_benchmark_counties": 17, "on_benchmark_counties": 5, "unique_counties": 48, "unique_markets": 7, "votes_scored": 41832.0, "breadth_balance": 0.5568181818181818, "temporal_persistence": 1.0, "positive_window_weight_share": 1.0, "latest_window_lift_points": 2.011205888398483, "latest_window_vote_share": 0.4403566647542551, "latest_window_weight_share": 0.550901361190866, "latest_window_matured_votes": 18421.0, "latest_window_matured_counties": 36, "prior_vote_weighted_lift_points": 1.1891209037545882, "regime_reversal": false, "windows_scored": 3, "evidence": 1.0, "signal_score": 0.9177486729311632 }, "Jim Priest": { "weighted_excess_points": -8.320270862310496, "implied_statewide_margin_lift_points": -1.6810076179925038, "above_benchmark_counties": 17, "below_benchmark_counties": 66, "on_benchmark_counties": 5, "unique_counties": 48, "unique_markets": 7, "votes_scored": 41832.0, "breadth_balance": -0.5568181818181818, "temporal_persistence": 0.0, "positive_window_weight_share": 0.0, "latest_window_lift_points": -2.0112058883984822, "latest_window_vote_share": 0.4403566647542551, "latest_window_weight_share": 0.550901361190866, "latest_window_matured_votes": 18421.0, "latest_window_matured_counties": 36, "prior_vote_weighted_lift_points": -1.1891209037545887, "regime_reversal": false, "windows_scored": 3, "evidence": 1.0, "signal_score": -0.9177486729311632 } }, "windows": [ { "from_snapshot": 6, "to_snapshot": 11, "from_filename": "6.json", "to_filename": "11.json", "span_snapshots": 5, "matured_votes_scored": 9912.0, "matured_counties_scored": 15, "window_margin_lift_points": { "N\u2019Kiyla Thomas": 0.7835182898667843, "Jim Priest": -0.7835182898667851 } }, { "from_snapshot": 11, "to_snapshot": 16, "from_filename": "11.json", "to_filename": "16.json", "span_snapshots": 5, "matured_votes_scored": 13499.0, "matured_counties_scored": 37, "window_margin_lift_points": { "N\u2019Kiyla Thomas": 1.4869454173375138, "Jim Priest": -1.486945417337514 } }, { "from_snapshot": 16, "to_snapshot": 21, "from_filename": "16.json", "to_filename": "21.json", "span_snapshots": 5, "matured_votes_scored": 18421.0, "matured_counties_scored": 36, "window_margin_lift_points": { "N\u2019Kiyla Thomas": 2.011205888398483, "Jim Priest": -2.0112058883984822 } } ], "matured_votes_scored": 41832.0, "unique_matured_counties": 48, "average_reporting_advance_points": 23.080647829412886, "method_note": "V6.2 Completion Benchmark uses longer material county-maturation windows. Only this benchmark layer is eligible to influence the final Needle; the short-horizon Path Benchmark remains path-only." }, "path_benchmark_signal": { "available": true, "role": "path_only", "final_ensemble_weight": 0.0, "favored_candidate": "N\u2019Kiyla Thomas", "least_favored_candidate": "Jim Priest", "evidence": 1.0, "favored_signal_score": 0.8099306430192412, "favored_weighted_excess_points": 12.23912400181002, "favored_breadth_balance": 0.5, "candidates": { "N\u2019Kiyla Thomas": { "weighted_excess_points": 12.23912400181002, "above_benchmark_counties": 42, "below_benchmark_counties": 12, "on_benchmark_counties": 6, "unique_counties": 36, "unique_markets": 6, "votes_scored": 11982.0, "breadth_balance": 0.5, "evidence": 1.0, "signal_score": 0.8099306430192412 }, "Jim Priest": { "weighted_excess_points": -12.239124001810017, "above_benchmark_counties": 12, "below_benchmark_counties": 42, "on_benchmark_counties": 6, "unique_counties": 36, "unique_markets": 6, "votes_scored": 11982.0, "breadth_balance": -0.5, "evidence": 1.0, "signal_score": -0.8099306430192412 } }, "intervals": [ { "from_snapshot": 18, "to_snapshot": 19, "new_votes": 3037, "changed_counties": 41, "benchmark_observations_scored": 38 }, { "from_snapshot": 19, "to_snapshot": 20, "new_votes": 6064, "changed_counties": 52, "benchmark_observations_scored": 58 }, { "from_snapshot": 20, "to_snapshot": 21, "new_votes": 4164, "changed_counties": 28, "benchmark_observations_scored": 24 } ], "method_note": "V6 rebuilds county tie benchmarks and the preliminary expert gate exactly as they existed at each prior snapshot, then grades only later-arriving vote. Broad, repeated benchmark beats across independent counties are stronger evidence than one friendly dump." }, "crossover_consensus": { "available": false, "raw_leader": "N\u2019Kiyla Thomas", "candidate": null, "eligible": false, "score": 0.0, "independent_families": 0, "required_families": 2, "required_score": 0.075, "maturity_percent_estimate": 42.96918572898621, "candidates": {} }, "turning_point_trust_reallocation": { "available": false, "applied": false, "candidate": "N\u2019Kiyla Thomas", "raw_leader": "N\u2019Kiyla Thomas", "requested_transfer": 0.0, "applied_transfer": 0.0, "supporters": [], "contradictors": [], "override_caps": {} }, "reference_requested": null, "media_market_source": "/var/www/html/afi_needle_lab/engine/media_markets/ok_media_markets.js" } ], "method_note": "All supplied contested statewide races are evaluated at one common target percentage of eventual vote. Each race uses the nearest historical snapshot within the ordinary checkpoint tolerance. latest.json is scoring-only." }