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"path_signal_score": 0.9718252883335884, "path_breadth_balance": 1.0, "path_evidence": 0.8959786703810408, "independent_supporters": [ { "model": "batchbias", "family": "reporting_order", "quality": 0.5792547744166718, "evidence": 0.8297061756937694, "weight": 0.0, "projected_leader": "Jermaine Johnson" } ], "independent_families": 1, "score_parts": { "maturity": 0.24242519907127336, "latest_vote_dominance": 0.8693995067672016, "latest_weight_dominance": 0.7033799523924008, "latest_lift": 0.3880682823570564, "path": 1.0, "path_breadth": 1.0, "independent": 0.5 }, "method_note": "Turning-Point Consensus requires the newest material Completion window to dominate the matured vote mass, reverse the older regime, and receive independent confirmation from the Path Benchmark plus at least one validated final-oriented expert. Path itself still has 0% direct final weight." }, "completion_benchmark_signal": { "available": true, "role": "final_completion", "favored_candidate": "Jermaine Johnson", "evidence": 0.9926307536303962, "base_evidence": 0.9926307536303962, "favored_signal_score": 0.9910750869869156, "favored_weighted_excess_points": 19.43494854350531, "favored_implied_statewide_margin_lift_points": 1.6694069357422425, "favored_breadth_balance": 1.0, "favored_temporal_persistence": 1.0, "favored_latest_window_lift_points": 0.11642048470711693, "favored_latest_window_vote_share": 0.5804099260150802, "favored_latest_window_weight_share": 0.6125407923827841, "favored_prior_vote_weighted_lift_points": 4.2352566654690165, "favored_regime_reversal": false, "directional": true, "persistent_actionable_pre_maturity": true, "actionable_pre_maturity": true, "validation_quality": 0.9926307536303962, "validation_mae_points": 0.35, "candidates": { "Jermaine Johnson": { "weighted_excess_points": 19.43494854350531, "implied_statewide_margin_lift_points": 1.6694069357422425, "above_benchmark_counties": 26, "below_benchmark_counties": 0, "on_benchmark_counties": 0, "unique_counties": 23, "unique_markets": 7, "votes_scored": 112996.0, "breadth_balance": 1.0, "temporal_persistence": 1.0, "positive_window_weight_share": 1.0, "latest_window_lift_points": 0.11642048470711693, "latest_window_vote_share": 0.5804099260150802, "latest_window_weight_share": 0.6125407923827841, "latest_window_matured_votes": 65584.0, "latest_window_matured_counties": 14, "prior_vote_weighted_lift_points": 4.2352566654690165, "regime_reversal": false, "windows_scored": 3, "evidence": 0.9926307536303962, "signal_score": 0.9910750869869156 }, "Billy Webster": { "weighted_excess_points": -18.71492480044441, "implied_statewide_margin_lift_points": -1.83427733615421, "above_benchmark_counties": 0, "below_benchmark_counties": 26, "on_benchmark_counties": 0, "unique_counties": 23, "unique_markets": 7, "votes_scored": 112996.0, "breadth_balance": -1.0, "temporal_persistence": 0.0, "positive_window_weight_share": 0.0, "latest_window_lift_points": -0.13554846145990443, "latest_window_vote_share": 0.5804099260150802, "latest_window_weight_share": 0.6125407923827841, "latest_window_matured_votes": 65584.0, "latest_window_matured_counties": 14, "prior_vote_weighted_lift_points": -4.641143374681018, "regime_reversal": false, "windows_scored": 3, "evidence": 0.9926307536303962, "signal_score": -0.9917755306533115 }, "Mullins Mcleod": { "weighted_excess_points": -29.30562487792275, "implied_statewide_margin_lift_points": -2.8155073801473383, "above_benchmark_counties": 0, "below_benchmark_counties": 26, "on_benchmark_counties": 0, "unique_counties": 23, "unique_markets": 7, "votes_scored": 112996.0, "breadth_balance": -1.0, "temporal_persistence": 0.0, "positive_window_weight_share": 0.0, "latest_window_lift_points": -0.1965983341425408, "latest_window_vote_share": 0.5804099260150802, "latest_window_weight_share": 0.6125407923827841, "latest_window_matured_votes": 65584.0, "latest_window_matured_counties": 14, "prior_vote_weighted_lift_points": -7.142485463985807, "regime_reversal": false, "windows_scored": 3, "evidence": 0.9926307536303962, "signal_score": -0.9926066054467038 } }, "windows": [ { "from_snapshot": 3, "to_snapshot": 6, "from_filename": "3.json", "to_filename": "6.json", "span_snapshots": 3, "matured_votes_scored": 7268.0, "matured_counties_scored": 4, "window_margin_lift_points": { "Jermaine Johnson": 0.0, "Billy Webster": 0.0, "Mullins Mcleod": 0.0 } }, { "from_snapshot": 6, "to_snapshot": 9, "from_filename": "6.json", "to_filename": "9.json", "span_snapshots": 3, "matured_votes_scored": 40144.0, "matured_counties_scored": 8, "window_margin_lift_points": { "Jermaine Johnson": 5.002042373037491, "Billy Webster": -5.481414151065574, "Mullins Mcleod": -8.43561978922118 } }, { "from_snapshot": 9, "to_snapshot": 12, "from_filename": "9.json", "to_filename": "12.json", "span_snapshots": 3, "matured_votes_scored": 65584.0, "matured_counties_scored": 14, "window_margin_lift_points": { "Jermaine Johnson": 0.11642048470711693, "Billy Webster": -0.13554846145990443, "Mullins Mcleod": -0.1965983341425408 } } ], "matured_votes_scored": 112996.0, "unique_matured_counties": 23, "average_reporting_advance_points": 33.44914713795178, "method_note": "V6.2 Completion Benchmark uses longer material county-maturation windows. Only this benchmark layer is eligible to influence the final Needle; the short-horizon Path Benchmark remains path-only." }, "path_benchmark_signal": { "available": true, "role": "path_only", "final_ensemble_weight": 0.0, "favored_candidate": "Jermaine Johnson", "least_favored_candidate": "Mullins Mcleod", "evidence": 0.8959786703810408, "favored_signal_score": 0.9718252883335884, "favored_weighted_excess_points": 21.995699101234514, "favored_breadth_balance": 1.0, "candidates": { "Jermaine Johnson": { "weighted_excess_points": 21.995699101234514, "above_benchmark_counties": 19, "below_benchmark_counties": 0, "on_benchmark_counties": 0, "unique_counties": 17, "unique_markets": 7, "votes_scored": 65856.0, "breadth_balance": 1.0, "evidence": 0.97182531580755, "signal_score": 0.9718252883335884 }, "Billy Webster": { "weighted_excess_points": -20.660027084873075, "above_benchmark_counties": 0, "below_benchmark_counties": 19, "on_benchmark_counties": 0, "unique_counties": 17, "unique_markets": 7, "votes_scored": 65856.0, "breadth_balance": -1.0, "evidence": 0.97182531580755, "signal_score": -0.9718252358275763 }, "Mullins Mcleod": { "weighted_excess_points": -33.23743043974506, "above_benchmark_counties": 0, "below_benchmark_counties": 19, "on_benchmark_counties": 0, "unique_counties": 17, "unique_markets": 7, "votes_scored": 65856.0, "breadth_balance": -1.0, "evidence": 0.97182531580755, "signal_score": -0.9718253158041369 } }, "intervals": [ { "from_snapshot": 9, "to_snapshot": 10, "new_votes": 15740, "changed_counties": 6, "benchmark_observations_scored": 18 }, { "from_snapshot": 10, "to_snapshot": 11, "new_votes": 12595, "changed_counties": 7, "benchmark_observations_scored": 21 }, { "from_snapshot": 11, "to_snapshot": 12, "new_votes": 37521, "changed_counties": 6, "benchmark_observations_scored": 18 } ], "method_note": "V6 rebuilds county tie benchmarks and the preliminary expert gate exactly as they existed at each prior snapshot, then grades only later-arriving vote. Broad, repeated benchmark beats across independent counties are stronger evidence than one friendly dump." }, "crossover_consensus": { "available": false, "raw_leader": "Jermaine Johnson", "candidate": null, "eligible": false, "score": 0.0, "independent_families": 0, "required_families": 2, "required_score": 0.075, "maturity_percent_estimate": 34.848503981425466, "candidates": {} }, "turning_point_trust_reallocation": { "available": false, "applied": false, "candidate": "Jermaine Johnson", "raw_leader": "Jermaine Johnson", "requested_transfer": 0.0, "applied_transfer": 0.0, "supporters": [], "contradictors": [], "override_caps": {} }, "reference_requested": null, "media_market_source": "/var/www/html/afi_needle_lab/engine/media_markets/sc_media_markets.js" }, { "label": "Governor \u2014 Republican", "office": "Governor", "party": "republican", "race_url": "https://data.americafirstinsight.com/Election2026/output/2026/SC/Governor/00/republican/", "race_name": "South Carolina Governor Republican Primary", "status": "ok", "target_pct": 30.0, "actual_vote_counted_pct": 30.602131243281676, "checkpoint_distance_points": 0.6021312432816757, "checkpoint_tolerance_points": 5.0, "snapshot": "17.json", "snapshot_number": 17, "timestamp": "2026-06-09T20:19:02.769197", "final_leader": "Pamela Evette", "final_runner_up": "Alan Wilson", "final_margin_points": 2.7150498954692015, "final_votes": 472588, "raw_current_leader": "Pamela Evette", "raw_current_margin_points": 2.8833787390576795, "raw_leader_correct": true, "v6_predicted_leader": "Pamela Evette", "v6_projected_runner_up": "Alan Wilson", "v6_projected_top_margin_points": 2.822201946202224, "v6_leader_correct": true, "v6_eventual_winner_margin_error_points": 0.10715205073302236, "v6_absolute_margin_error_points": 0.10715205073302236, "v6_winner_share_error_points": -0.2328248071517791, "v6_candidate_share_mae_points": 0.7784279468379224, "v6_eventual_winner_mc_probability": 1.0, "v6_model_confidence": 0.710989770119106, "candidate_rank_summary": { "candidates_scored": 7, "exact_rank_calls": 5, "exact_rank_accuracy": 0.7142857142857143, "mean_absolute_rank_error": 0.2857142857142857, "projected_order": [ "Pamela Evette", "Alan Wilson", "Rom Reddy", "Ralph W Norman", "Nancy Mace", "Joshua Kimbrell", "Jacqueline Hicks Dubose - *decertified Before Primary*" ], "current_order": [ "Pamela Evette", "Alan Wilson", "Ralph W Norman", "Rom Reddy", "Nancy Mace", "Joshua Kimbrell", "Jacqueline Hicks Dubose - *decertified Before Primary*" ], "final_order_backtest_only": [ "Pamela Evette", "Alan Wilson", "Ralph W Norman", "Rom Reddy", "Nancy Mace", "Joshua Kimbrell", "Jacqueline Hicks Dubose - *decertified Before Primary*" ], "hidden_movement_candidates": [ "Rom Reddy", "Ralph W Norman" ] }, "candidate_projection_breakdown": [ { "name": "Pamela Evette", "party": "Republican", "current_votes": 41347, "current_rank": 1, "current_share_points": 28.589702811467134, "projected_rank": 1, "projected_share_points": 28.627408630853417, "projected_change_points": 0.03770581938628226, "projected_rank_movement": 0, "final_rank_backtest_only": 1, "final_share_points_backtest_only": 28.860233438005196, "share_error_points_backtest_only": -0.2328248071517791, "final_rank_movement_backtest_only": 0, "rank_error_backtest_only": 0, "rank_call_correct_backtest_only": true, "hidden_movement": false }, { "name": "Alan Wilson", "party": "Republican", "current_votes": 37177, "current_rank": 2, "current_share_points": 25.706324072409455, "projected_rank": 2, "projected_share_points": 25.805206684651193, "projected_change_points": 0.09888261224173789, "projected_rank_movement": 0, "final_rank_backtest_only": 2, "final_share_points_backtest_only": 26.145183542535992, "share_error_points_backtest_only": -0.3399768578847997, "final_rank_movement_backtest_only": 0, "rank_error_backtest_only": 0, "rank_call_correct_backtest_only": true, "hidden_movement": false }, { "name": "Rom Reddy", "party": "Republican", "current_votes": 24243, "current_rank": 4, "current_share_points": 16.763009777212318, "projected_rank": 3, "projected_share_points": 16.76394665024904, "projected_change_points": 0.0009368730367214084, "projected_rank_movement": 1, "final_rank_backtest_only": 4, "final_share_points_backtest_only": 14.160748897559818, "share_error_points_backtest_only": 2.603197752689221, "final_rank_movement_backtest_only": 0, "rank_error_backtest_only": -1, "rank_call_correct_backtest_only": false, "hidden_movement": true }, { "name": "Ralph W Norman", "party": "Republican", "current_votes": 24484, "current_rank": 3, "current_share_points": 16.929651090428845, "projected_rank": 4, "projected_share_points": 16.751929570544736, "projected_change_points": -0.1777215198841091, "projected_rank_movement": -1, "final_rank_backtest_only": 3, "final_share_points_backtest_only": 17.08083997054517, "share_error_points_backtest_only": -0.32891040000043503, "final_rank_movement_backtest_only": 0, "rank_error_backtest_only": 1, "rank_call_correct_backtest_only": false, "hidden_movement": true }, { "name": "Nancy Mace", "party": "Republican", "current_votes": 15089, "current_rank": 5, "current_share_points": 10.433405705909198, "projected_rank": 5, "projected_share_points": 10.483697825268532, "projected_change_points": 0.05029211935933375, "projected_rank_movement": 0, "final_rank_backtest_only": 5, "final_share_points_backtest_only": 12.131497202637393, "share_error_points_backtest_only": -1.6477993773688606, "final_rank_movement_backtest_only": 0, "rank_error_backtest_only": 0, "rank_call_correct_backtest_only": true, "hidden_movement": false }, { "name": "Joshua Kimbrell", "party": "Republican", "current_votes": 1391, "current_rank": 6, "current_share_points": 0.9618177040837493, "projected_rank": 6, "projected_share_points": 0.9581812346969156, "projected_change_points": -0.0036364693868337072, "projected_rank_movement": 0, "final_rank_backtest_only": 6, "final_share_points_backtest_only": 0.8368811734534097, "share_error_points_backtest_only": 0.1213000612435059, "final_rank_movement_backtest_only": 0, "rank_error_backtest_only": 0, "rank_call_correct_backtest_only": true, "hidden_movement": false }, { "name": "Jacqueline Hicks Dubose - *decertified Before Primary*", "party": "Republican", "current_votes": 891, "current_rank": 7, "current_share_points": 0.6160888384893032, "projected_rank": 7, "projected_share_points": 0.6096294037361619, "projected_change_points": -0.006459434753141258, "projected_rank_movement": 0, "final_rank_backtest_only": 7, "final_share_points_backtest_only": 0.7846157752630197, "share_error_points_backtest_only": -0.1749863715268578, "final_rank_movement_backtest_only": 0, "rank_error_backtest_only": 0, "rank_call_correct_backtest_only": true, "hidden_movement": false } ], "turning_point": { "available": true, "candidate": "Pamela Evette", "raw_leader": "Pamela Evette", "raw_top_two_margin_points": 2.8833787390576795, "raw_gap_to_candidate_points": 0.0, "actionable": false, "score": 0.5828305155842519, "checks": { "serious_data": true, "completion_direction": true, "regime_reversal": true, "latest_window_dominates": false, "path_confirmation": true, "independent_final_expert": true, "raw_dead_heat_or_same_leader": true }, "failed_checks": [ "latest_window_dominates" ], "latest_window_lift_points": 0.3592962706355739, "latest_window_vote_share": 0.417031230042151, "latest_window_weight_share": 0.5459641971800698, "prior_vote_weighted_lift_points": -0.20175733215250208, "completion_signal_score": 0.4131604395223977, "completion_evidence": 1.0, "path_signal_score": 0.4655441376434451, "path_breadth_balance": 0.25925925925925924, "path_evidence": 1.0, "independent_supporters": [ { "model": "v1", "family": "county", "quality": 0.5933139089424573, "evidence": 0.4848443334557038, "weight": 0.0, "projected_leader": "Pamela Evette" }, { "model": "v3", "family": "remaining", "quality": 0.45843139475985667, "evidence": 1.0, "weight": 0.0, "projected_leader": "Pamela Evette" }, { "model": "histgeo", "family": "historical", "quality": 0.5484415166815934, "evidence": 1.0, "weight": 0.0, "projected_leader": "Pamela Evette" }, { "model": "batchbias", "family": "reporting_order", "quality": 0.6543061272616013, "evidence": 1.0, "weight": 0.0, "projected_leader": "Pamela Evette" } ], "independent_families": 4, "score_parts": { "maturity": 0.1930217891706526, "latest_vote_dominance": 0.0, "latest_weight_dominance": 0.2872762323754364, "latest_lift": 1.0, "path": 1.0, "path_breadth": 0.8641975308641975, "independent": 1.0 }, "method_note": "Turning-Point Consensus requires the newest material Completion window to dominate the matured vote mass, reverse the older regime, and receive independent confirmation from the Path Benchmark plus at least one validated final-oriented expert. Path itself still has 0% direct final weight." }, "completion_benchmark_signal": { "available": true, "role": "final_completion", "favored_candidate": "Pamela Evette", "evidence": 1.0, "base_evidence": 1.0, "favored_signal_score": 0.4131604395223977, "favored_weighted_excess_points": 2.3161499449812673, "favored_implied_statewide_margin_lift_points": 0.11470413182531762, "favored_breadth_balance": 0.3170731707317073, "favored_temporal_persistence": 0.5459641971800698, "favored_latest_window_lift_points": 0.3592962706355739, "favored_latest_window_vote_share": 0.417031230042151, "favored_latest_window_weight_share": 0.5459641971800698, "favored_prior_vote_weighted_lift_points": -0.20175733215250208, "favored_regime_reversal": true, "directional": true, "persistent_actionable_pre_maturity": false, "actionable_pre_maturity": false, "validation_quality": 0.8351362676714414, "validation_mae_points": 0.6594549293142342, "candidates": { "Pamela Evette": { "weighted_excess_points": 2.3161499449812673, "implied_statewide_margin_lift_points": 0.11470413182531762, "above_benchmark_counties": 26, "below_benchmark_counties": 13, "on_benchmark_counties": 2, "unique_counties": 31, "unique_markets": 6, "votes_scored": 125264.0, "breadth_balance": 0.3170731707317073, "temporal_persistence": 0.5459641971800698, "positive_window_weight_share": 0.5459641971800698, "latest_window_lift_points": 0.3592962706355739, "latest_window_vote_share": 0.417031230042151, "latest_window_weight_share": 0.5459641971800698, "latest_window_matured_votes": 52239.0, "latest_window_matured_counties": 19, "prior_vote_weighted_lift_points": -0.20175733215250208, "regime_reversal": true, "windows_scored": 3, "evidence": 1.0, "signal_score": 0.4131604395223977 }, "Alan Wilson": { "weighted_excess_points": -0.9770641083947933, "implied_statewide_margin_lift_points": -0.154346797835012, "above_benchmark_counties": 15, "below_benchmark_counties": 19, "on_benchmark_counties": 7, "unique_counties": 31, 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Only this benchmark layer is eligible to influence the final Needle; the short-horizon Path Benchmark remains path-only." }, "path_benchmark_signal": { "available": true, "role": "path_only", "final_ensemble_weight": 0.0, "favored_candidate": "Vincent Coe", "least_favored_candidate": "Trav Robertson Jr.", "evidence": 0.7905694150420949, "favored_signal_score": 0.9123366378535419, "favored_weighted_excess_points": 9.572559757164674, "favored_breadth_balance": 1.0, "candidates": { "Vincent Coe": { "weighted_excess_points": 9.572559757164674, "above_benchmark_counties": 16, "below_benchmark_counties": 0, "on_benchmark_counties": 0, "unique_counties": 15, "unique_markets": 7, "votes_scored": 61084.0, "breadth_balance": 1.0, "evidence": 0.9128709291752769, "signal_score": 0.9123366378535419 }, "Trav Robertson Jr.": { "weighted_excess_points": -9.57255975716468, "above_benchmark_counties": 0, "below_benchmark_counties": 16, "on_benchmark_counties": 0, "unique_counties": 15, "unique_markets": 7, "votes_scored": 61084.0, "breadth_balance": -1.0, "evidence": 0.9128709291752769, "signal_score": -0.9123366378535419 } }, "intervals": [ { "from_snapshot": 9, "to_snapshot": 10, "new_votes": 15115, "changed_counties": 6, "benchmark_observations_scored": 12 }, { "from_snapshot": 10, "to_snapshot": 11, "new_votes": 12049, "changed_counties": 7, "benchmark_observations_scored": 14 }, { "from_snapshot": 11, "to_snapshot": 12, "new_votes": 33920, "changed_counties": 3, "benchmark_observations_scored": 6 } ], "method_note": "V6 rebuilds county tie benchmarks and the preliminary expert gate exactly as they existed at each prior snapshot, then grades only later-arriving vote. Broad, repeated benchmark beats across independent counties are stronger evidence than one friendly dump." }, "crossover_consensus": { "available": false, "raw_leader": "Vincent Coe", "candidate": null, "eligible": false, "score": 0.0, "independent_families": 0, "required_families": 2, "required_score": 0.075, "maturity_percent_estimate": 34.17601366402975, "candidates": {} }, "turning_point_trust_reallocation": { "available": false, "applied": false, "candidate": "Vincent Coe", "raw_leader": "Vincent Coe", "requested_transfer": 0.0, "applied_transfer": 0.0, "supporters": [], "contradictors": [], "override_caps": {} }, "reference_requested": null, "media_market_source": "/var/www/html/afi_needle_lab/engine/media_markets/sc_media_markets.js" }, { "label": "US Senate \u2014 Democratic", "office": "US_Senate", "party": "democratic", "race_url": "https://data.americafirstinsight.com/Election2026/output/2026/SC/US_Senate/00/democratic/", "race_name": "South Carolina US Senate Democratic Primary", "status": "ok", "target_pct": 30.0, "actual_vote_counted_pct": 32.29725018520939, "checkpoint_distance_points": 2.2972501852093927, "checkpoint_tolerance_points": 5.0, "snapshot": "12.json", "snapshot_number": 12, "timestamp": "2026-06-09T20:02:03.421657", "final_leader": "Annie Andrews", "final_runner_up": "Brandon P Brown", "final_margin_points": 31.33470606179457, "final_votes": 367152, "raw_current_leader": "Annie Andrews", "raw_current_margin_points": 30.61477483555406, "raw_leader_correct": true, "v6_predicted_leader": "Annie Andrews", "v6_projected_runner_up": "Brandon P Brown", "v6_projected_top_margin_points": 30.95012073272921, "v6_leader_correct": true, "v6_eventual_winner_margin_error_points": -0.3845853290653558, "v6_absolute_margin_error_points": 0.3845853290653558, "v6_winner_share_error_points": 0.049956532543859566, "v6_candidate_share_mae_points": 0.32299892943538033, "v6_eventual_winner_mc_probability": 1.0, "v6_model_confidence": 0.6274007279645418, "candidate_rank_summary": { "candidates_scored": 3, "exact_rank_calls": 3, "exact_rank_accuracy": 1.0, "mean_absolute_rank_error": 0.0, "projected_order": [ "Annie Andrews", "Brandon P Brown", "Kyle Freeman" ], "current_order": [ "Annie Andrews", "Brandon P Brown", "Kyle Freeman" ], "final_order_backtest_only": [ "Annie Andrews", "Brandon P Brown", "Kyle Freeman" ], "hidden_movement_candidates": [] }, "candidate_projection_breakdown": [ { "name": "Annie Andrews", "party": "Democratic", "current_votes": 72825, "current_rank": 1, "current_share_points": 61.41423511553382, "projected_rank": 1, "projected_share_points": 61.58414400803085, "projected_change_points": 0.1699088924970269, "projected_rank_movement": 0, "final_rank_backtest_only": 1, "final_share_points_backtest_only": 61.53418747548699, "share_error_points_backtest_only": 0.049956532543859566, "final_rank_movement_backtest_only": 0, "rank_error_backtest_only": 0, "rank_call_correct_backtest_only": true, "hidden_movement": false }, { "name": "Brandon P Brown", "party": "Democratic", "current_votes": 36522, "current_rank": 2, "current_share_points": 30.799460279979762, "projected_rank": 2, "projected_share_points": 30.634023275301637, "projected_change_points": -0.16543700467812528, "projected_rank_movement": 0, "final_rank_backtest_only": 2, "final_share_points_backtest_only": 30.199481413692418, "share_error_points_backtest_only": 0.4345418616092189, "final_rank_movement_backtest_only": 0, "rank_error_backtest_only": 0, "rank_call_correct_backtest_only": true, "hidden_movement": false }, { "name": "Kyle Freeman", "party": "Democratic", "current_votes": 9233, "current_rank": 3, "current_share_points": 7.786304604486423, "projected_rank": 3, "projected_share_points": 7.781832716667522, "projected_change_points": -0.004471887818900733, "projected_rank_movement": 0, "final_rank_backtest_only": 3, "final_share_points_backtest_only": 8.266331110820586, "share_error_points_backtest_only": -0.4844983941530634, "final_rank_movement_backtest_only": 0, "rank_error_backtest_only": 0, "rank_call_correct_backtest_only": true, "hidden_movement": false } ], "turning_point": { "available": true, "candidate": "Annie Andrews", "raw_leader": "Annie Andrews", "raw_top_two_margin_points": 30.61477483555406, "raw_gap_to_candidate_points": 0.0, "actionable": false, "score": 0.6387034307700761, "checks": { "serious_data": true, "completion_direction": true, "regime_reversal": false, "latest_window_dominates": true, "path_confirmation": true, "independent_final_expert": true, "raw_dead_heat_or_same_leader": true }, "failed_checks": [ "regime_reversal" ], "latest_window_lift_points": 0.03780940581464766, "latest_window_vote_share": 0.5706683032279339, "latest_window_weight_share": 0.6082245216065824, "prior_vote_weighted_lift_points": 2.2713323519914286, "completion_signal_score": 0.8963155243286542, "completion_evidence": 0.969504825211347, "path_signal_score": 0.8261465090131571, "path_breadth_balance": 0.75, "path_evidence": 0.7905694150420949, "independent_supporters": [ { "model": "batchbias", "family": "reporting_order", "quality": 0.5758286301478059, "evidence": 0.8247239988963655, "weight": 0.0, "projected_leader": "Annie Andrews" } ], "independent_families": 1, "score_parts": { "maturity": 0.20823335301062562, "latest_vote_dominance": 0.8044553548528929, "latest_weight_dominance": 0.6764032600411397, "latest_lift": 0.1260313527154922, "path": 1.0, "path_breadth": 1.0, "independent": 0.5 }, "method_note": "Turning-Point Consensus requires the newest material Completion window to dominate the matured vote mass, reverse the older regime, and receive independent confirmation from the Path Benchmark plus at least one validated final-oriented expert. Path itself still has 0% direct final weight." }, "completion_benchmark_signal": { "available": true, "role": "final_completion", "favored_candidate": "Annie Andrews", "evidence": 0.969504825211347, "base_evidence": 0.969504825211347, "favored_signal_score": 0.8963155243286542, "favored_weighted_excess_points": 18.282383940502, "favored_implied_statewide_margin_lift_points": 0.8825092422300357, "favored_breadth_balance": 0.7272727272727273, "favored_temporal_persistence": 1.0, "favored_latest_window_lift_points": 0.03780940581464766, "favored_latest_window_vote_share": 0.5706683032279339, "favored_latest_window_weight_share": 0.6082245216065824, "favored_prior_vote_weighted_lift_points": 2.2713323519914286, "favored_regime_reversal": false, "directional": true, "persistent_actionable_pre_maturity": true, "actionable_pre_maturity": true, "validation_quality": 0.969504825211347, "validation_mae_points": 0.35, "candidates": { "Annie Andrews": { "weighted_excess_points": 18.282383940502, "implied_statewide_margin_lift_points": 0.8825092422300357, "above_benchmark_counties": 18, "below_benchmark_counties": 2, "on_benchmark_counties": 2, "unique_counties": 20, "unique_markets": 7, "votes_scored": 109172.0, "breadth_balance": 0.7272727272727273, "temporal_persistence": 1.0, "positive_window_weight_share": 1.0, "latest_window_lift_points": 0.03780940581464766, "latest_window_vote_share": 0.5706683032279339, "latest_window_weight_share": 0.6082245216065824, "latest_window_matured_votes": 62301.0, "latest_window_matured_counties": 11, "prior_vote_weighted_lift_points": 2.2713323519914286, "regime_reversal": false, "windows_scored": 3, "evidence": 0.969504825211347, "signal_score": 0.8963155243286542 }, "Brandon P Brown": { "weighted_excess_points": -18.9717401051432, "implied_statewide_margin_lift_points": -0.8620426990929441, "above_benchmark_counties": 0, "below_benchmark_counties": 21, "on_benchmark_counties": 1, "unique_counties": 20, "unique_markets": 7, "votes_scored": 109172.0, "breadth_balance": -0.9545454545454546, "temporal_persistence": 0.0, "positive_window_weight_share": 0.0, "latest_window_lift_points": -0.04471012278493991, "latest_window_vote_share": 0.5706683032279339, "latest_window_weight_share": 0.6082245216065824, "latest_window_matured_votes": 62301.0, "latest_window_matured_counties": 11, "prior_vote_weighted_lift_points": -2.2061564348221414, "regime_reversal": false, "windows_scored": 3, "evidence": 0.969504825211347, "signal_score": -0.9340821247908156 }, "Kyle Freeman": { "weighted_excess_points": -35.42781121592359, "implied_statewide_margin_lift_points": -1.1505724455191193, "above_benchmark_counties": 0, "below_benchmark_counties": 22, "on_benchmark_counties": 0, "unique_counties": 20, "unique_markets": 7, "votes_scored": 109172.0, "breadth_balance": -1.0, "temporal_persistence": 0.0, "positive_window_weight_share": 0.0, "latest_window_lift_points": -0.129186910237805, "latest_window_vote_share": 0.5706683032279339, "latest_window_weight_share": 0.6082245216065824, "latest_window_matured_votes": 62301.0, "latest_window_matured_counties": 11, "prior_vote_weighted_lift_points": -2.8328417572190716, "regime_reversal": false, "windows_scored": 3, "evidence": 0.969504825211347, "signal_score": -0.9596091367522191 } }, "windows": [ { "from_snapshot": 3, "to_snapshot": 6, "from_filename": "3.json", "to_filename": "6.json", "span_snapshots": 3, "matured_votes_scored": 6384.0, "matured_counties_scored": 3, "window_margin_lift_points": { "Annie Andrews": 0.0, "Brandon P Brown": 0.0, "Kyle Freeman": 0.0 } }, { "from_snapshot": 6, "to_snapshot": 9, "from_filename": "6.json", "to_filename": "9.json", "span_snapshots": 3, "matured_votes_scored": 40487.0, "matured_counties_scored": 8, "window_margin_lift_points": { "Annie Andrews": 2.629476589280269, "Brandon P Brown": -2.5540237176513103, "Kyle Freeman": -3.2795249339940007 } }, { "from_snapshot": 9, "to_snapshot": 12, "from_filename": "9.json", "to_filename": "12.json", "span_snapshots": 3, "matured_votes_scored": 62301.0, "matured_counties_scored": 11, "window_margin_lift_points": { "Annie Andrews": 0.03780940581464766, "Brandon P Brown": -0.04471012278493991, "Kyle Freeman": -0.129186910237805 } } ], "matured_votes_scored": 109172.0, "unique_matured_counties": 20, "average_reporting_advance_points": 33.50744036932547, "method_note": "V6.2 Completion Benchmark uses longer material county-maturation windows. Only this benchmark layer is eligible to influence the final Needle; the short-horizon Path Benchmark remains path-only." }, "path_benchmark_signal": { "available": true, "role": "path_only", "final_ensemble_weight": 0.0, "favored_candidate": "Annie Andrews", "least_favored_candidate": "Kyle Freeman", "evidence": 0.7905694150420949, "favored_signal_score": 0.8261465090131571, "favored_weighted_excess_points": 16.774426542136805, "favored_breadth_balance": 0.75, "candidates": { "Annie Andrews": { "weighted_excess_points": 16.774426542136805, "above_benchmark_counties": 13, "below_benchmark_counties": 1, "on_benchmark_counties": 2, "unique_counties": 15, "unique_markets": 7, "votes_scored": 62812.0, "breadth_balance": 0.75, "evidence": 0.9128709291752769, "signal_score": 0.8261465090131571 }, "Brandon P Brown": { "weighted_excess_points": -17.665912335689193, "above_benchmark_counties": 0, "below_benchmark_counties": 15, "on_benchmark_counties": 1, "unique_counties": 15, "unique_markets": 7, "votes_scored": 62812.0, "breadth_balance": -0.9375, "evidence": 0.9128709291752769, "signal_score": -0.8911894203475064 }, "Kyle Freeman": { "weighted_excess_points": -37.36976198302891, "above_benchmark_counties": 0, "below_benchmark_counties": 16, "on_benchmark_counties": 0, "unique_counties": 15, "unique_markets": 7, "votes_scored": 62812.0, "breadth_balance": -1.0, "evidence": 0.9128709291752769, "signal_score": -0.9128709291751593 } }, "intervals": [ { "from_snapshot": 9, "to_snapshot": 10, "new_votes": 15463, "changed_counties": 6, "benchmark_observations_scored": 18 }, { "from_snapshot": 10, "to_snapshot": 11, "new_votes": 12470, "changed_counties": 6, "benchmark_observations_scored": 18 }, { "from_snapshot": 11, "to_snapshot": 12, "new_votes": 34879, "changed_counties": 4, "benchmark_observations_scored": 12 } ], "method_note": "V6 rebuilds county tie benchmarks and the preliminary expert gate exactly as they existed at each prior snapshot, then grades only later-arriving vote. Broad, repeated benchmark beats across independent counties are stronger evidence than one friendly dump." }, "crossover_consensus": { "available": false, "raw_leader": "Annie Andrews", "candidate": null, "eligible": false, "score": 0.0, "independent_families": 0, "required_families": 2, "required_score": 0.075, "maturity_percent_estimate": 34.16466706021251, "candidates": {} }, "turning_point_trust_reallocation": { "available": false, "applied": false, "candidate": "Annie Andrews", "raw_leader": "Annie Andrews", "requested_transfer": 0.0, "applied_transfer": 0.0, "supporters": [], "contradictors": [], "override_caps": {} }, "reference_requested": null, "media_market_source": "/var/www/html/afi_needle_lab/engine/media_markets/sc_media_markets.js" }, { "label": "US Senate \u2014 Republican", "office": "US_Senate", "party": "republican", "race_url": "https://data.americafirstinsight.com/Election2026/output/2026/SC/US_Senate/00/republican/", "race_name": "South Carolina US Senate Republican Primary", "status": "ok", "target_pct": 30.0, "actual_vote_counted_pct": 30.38439109205976, "checkpoint_distance_points": 0.3843910920597615, "checkpoint_tolerance_points": 5.0, "snapshot": "17.json", "snapshot_number": 17, "timestamp": "2026-06-09T20:19:02.839317", "final_leader": "Lindsey Graham", "final_runner_up": "Mark Lynch", "final_margin_points": 27.898964728464478, "final_votes": 464709, "raw_current_leader": "Lindsey Graham", "raw_current_margin_points": 32.42374237777888, "raw_leader_correct": true, "v6_predicted_leader": "Lindsey Graham", "v6_projected_runner_up": "Mark Lynch", "v6_projected_top_margin_points": 32.914123891288234, "v6_leader_correct": true, "v6_eventual_winner_margin_error_points": 5.015159162823757, "v6_absolute_margin_error_points": 5.015159162823757, "v6_winner_share_error_points": 2.754237956311016, "v6_candidate_share_mae_points": 0.9638760376939354, "v6_eventual_winner_mc_probability": 1.0, "v6_model_confidence": 0.743828157134937, "candidate_rank_summary": { "candidates_scored": 6, "exact_rank_calls": 6, "exact_rank_accuracy": 1.0, "mean_absolute_rank_error": 0.0, "projected_order": [ "Lindsey Graham", "Mark Lynch", "Thomas Keith Dismukes", "Pat Herrmann", "Calvin Cowen", "Darius L Mitchell" ], "current_order": [ "Lindsey Graham", "Mark Lynch", "Thomas Keith Dismukes", "Pat Herrmann", "Calvin Cowen", "Darius L Mitchell" ], "final_order_backtest_only": [ "Lindsey Graham", "Mark Lynch", "Thomas Keith Dismukes", "Pat Herrmann", "Calvin Cowen", "Darius L Mitchell" ], "hidden_movement_candidates": [] }, "candidate_projection_breakdown": [ { "name": "Lindsey Graham", "party": "Republican", "current_votes": 83718, "current_rank": 1, "current_share_points": 59.290788178386535, "projected_rank": 1, "projected_share_points": 59.54138862479387, "projected_change_points": 0.2506004464073328, "projected_rank_movement": 0, "final_rank_backtest_only": 1, "final_share_points_backtest_only": 56.78715066848285, "share_error_points_backtest_only": 2.754237956311016, "final_rank_movement_backtest_only": 0, "rank_error_backtest_only": 0, "rank_call_correct_backtest_only": true, "hidden_movement": false }, { "name": "Mark Lynch", "party": "Republican", "current_votes": 37936, "current_rank": 2, "current_share_points": 26.867045800607652, "projected_rank": 2, "projected_share_points": 26.627264733505633, "projected_change_points": -0.23978106710201885, "projected_rank_movement": 0, "final_rank_backtest_only": 2, "final_share_points_backtest_only": 28.888185940018378, "share_error_points_backtest_only": -2.2609212065127444, "final_rank_movement_backtest_only": 0, "rank_error_backtest_only": 0, "rank_call_correct_backtest_only": true, "hidden_movement": false }, { "name": "Thomas Keith Dismukes", "party": "Republican", "current_votes": 6751, "current_rank": 3, "current_share_points": 4.781195334244577, "projected_rank": 3, "projected_share_points": 4.751772549328622, "projected_change_points": -0.029422784915955624, "projected_rank_movement": 0, "final_rank_backtest_only": 3, "final_share_points_backtest_only": 5.195724636277756, "share_error_points_backtest_only": -0.44395208694913446, "final_rank_movement_backtest_only": 0, "rank_error_backtest_only": 0, "rank_call_correct_backtest_only": true, "hidden_movement": false }, { "name": "Pat Herrmann", "party": "Republican", "current_votes": 5233, "current_rank": 4, "current_share_points": 3.7061168988448925, "projected_rank": 4, "projected_share_points": 3.7179695575126446, "projected_change_points": 0.011852658667752092, "projected_rank_movement": 0, "final_rank_backtest_only": 4, "final_share_points_backtest_only": 3.750949518946265, "share_error_points_backtest_only": -0.032979961433620364, "final_rank_movement_backtest_only": 0, "rank_error_backtest_only": 0, "rank_call_correct_backtest_only": true, "hidden_movement": false }, { "name": "Calvin Cowen", "party": "Republican", "current_votes": 4079, "current_rank": 5, "current_share_points": 2.888830657440917, "projected_rank": 5, "projected_share_points": 2.893078118622838, "projected_change_points": 0.004247461181920986, "projected_rank_movement": 0, "final_rank_backtest_only": 5, "final_share_points_backtest_only": 3.046852976809143, "share_error_points_backtest_only": -0.15377485818630499, "final_rank_movement_backtest_only": 0, "rank_error_backtest_only": 0, "rank_call_correct_backtest_only": true, "hidden_movement": false }, { "name": "Darius L Mitchell", "party": "Republican", "current_votes": 3482, "current_rank": 6, "current_share_points": 2.466023130475428, "projected_rank": 6, "projected_share_points": 2.468526416236395, "projected_change_points": 0.0025032857609668113, "projected_rank_movement": 0, "final_rank_backtest_only": 6, "final_share_points_backtest_only": 2.331136259465601, "share_error_points_backtest_only": 0.13739015677079403, "final_rank_movement_backtest_only": 0, "rank_error_backtest_only": 0, "rank_call_correct_backtest_only": true, "hidden_movement": false } ], "turning_point": { "available": true, "candidate": "Lindsey Graham", "raw_leader": "Lindsey Graham", "raw_top_two_margin_points": 32.42374237777888, "raw_gap_to_candidate_points": 0.0, "actionable": false, "score": 0.5927706565714453, "checks": { "serious_data": true, "completion_direction": true, "regime_reversal": false, "latest_window_dominates": false, "path_confirmation": true, "independent_final_expert": true, "raw_dead_heat_or_same_leader": true }, "failed_checks": [ "regime_reversal", "latest_window_dominates" ], "latest_window_lift_points": 2.2021373853408166, "latest_window_vote_share": 0.41126548266596763, "latest_window_weight_share": 0.5491623978531142, "prior_vote_weighted_lift_points": 1.9170825503507263, "completion_signal_score": 0.9996033267245504, "completion_evidence": 1.0, "path_signal_score": 0.9999997710996166, "path_breadth_balance": 1.0, "path_evidence": 0.9486832980505138, "independent_supporters": [ { "model": "v1", "family": "county", "quality": 0.6377501557472819, "evidence": 0.5904708173483059, "weight": 0.0, "projected_leader": "Lindsey Graham" }, { "model": "v3", "family": "remaining", "quality": 0.5693557177613432, "evidence": 1.0, "weight": 0.0, "projected_leader": "Lindsey Graham" }, { "model": "histgeo", "family": "historical", "quality": 0.6851478318522886, "evidence": 1.0, "weight": 0.0, "projected_leader": "Lindsey Graham" }, { "model": "batchbias", "family": "reporting_order", "quality": 0.6528654447030207, "evidence": 1.0, "weight": 0.0, "projected_leader": "Lindsey Graham" } ], "independent_families": 4, "score_parts": { "maturity": 0.11340215598609288, "latest_vote_dominance": 0.0, "latest_weight_dominance": 0.3072649865819635, "latest_lift": 1.0, "path": 1.0, "path_breadth": 1.0, "independent": 1.0 }, "method_note": "Turning-Point Consensus requires the newest material Completion window to dominate the matured vote mass, reverse the older regime, and receive independent confirmation from the Path Benchmark plus at least one validated final-oriented expert. Path itself still has 0% direct final weight." }, "completion_benchmark_signal": { "available": true, "role": "final_completion", "favored_candidate": "Lindsey Graham", "evidence": 1.0, "base_evidence": 1.0, "favored_signal_score": 0.9996033267245504, "favored_weighted_excess_points": 18.852635504604475, "favored_implied_statewide_margin_lift_points": 2.0478402876811903, "favored_breadth_balance": 1.0, "favored_temporal_persistence": 1.0, "favored_latest_window_lift_points": 2.2021373853408166, "favored_latest_window_vote_share": 0.41126548266596763, "favored_latest_window_weight_share": 0.5491623978531142, "favored_prior_vote_weighted_lift_points": 1.9170825503507263, "favored_regime_reversal": false, "directional": true, "persistent_actionable_pre_maturity": true, "actionable_pre_maturity": true, "validation_quality": 1.0, "validation_mae_points": 0.35, "candidates": { "Lindsey Graham": { "weighted_excess_points": 18.852635504604475, "implied_statewide_margin_lift_points": 2.0478402876811903, "above_benchmark_counties": 39, "below_benchmark_counties": 0, "on_benchmark_counties": 0, "unique_counties": 29, "unique_markets": 6, "votes_scored": 122072.0, "breadth_balance": 1.0, "temporal_persistence": 1.0, "positive_window_weight_share": 1.0, "latest_window_lift_points": 2.2021373853408166, "latest_window_vote_share": 0.41126548266596763, "latest_window_weight_share": 0.5491623978531142, "latest_window_matured_votes": 50204.0, "latest_window_matured_counties": 17, "prior_vote_weighted_lift_points": 1.9170825503507263, "regime_reversal": false, "windows_scored": 3, "evidence": 1.0, "signal_score": 0.9996033267245504 }, "Mark Lynch": { "weighted_excess_points": -19.01331709118239, "implied_statewide_margin_lift_points": -2.113732211420301, "above_benchmark_counties": 0, "below_benchmark_counties": 39, "on_benchmark_counties": 0, "unique_counties": 29, "unique_markets": 6, "votes_scored": 122072.0, "breadth_balance": -1.0, "temporal_persistence": 0.0, 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"latest_window_matured_counties": 17, "prior_vote_weighted_lift_points": -3.415180640255427, "regime_reversal": false, "windows_scored": 3, "evidence": 1.0, "signal_score": -0.9999994445421093 }, "Pat Herrmann": { "weighted_excess_points": -32.12902266279582, "implied_statewide_margin_lift_points": -3.9470074793857863, "above_benchmark_counties": 0, "below_benchmark_counties": 39, "on_benchmark_counties": 0, "unique_counties": 29, "unique_markets": 6, "votes_scored": 122072.0, "breadth_balance": -1.0, "temporal_persistence": 0.0, "positive_window_weight_share": 0.0, "latest_window_lift_points": -4.45393972026321, "latest_window_vote_share": 0.41126548266596763, "latest_window_weight_share": 0.5491623978531142, "latest_window_matured_votes": 50204.0, "latest_window_matured_counties": 17, "prior_vote_weighted_lift_points": -3.586296027092145, "regime_reversal": false, "windows_scored": 3, "evidence": 1.0, "signal_score": -0.9999996026325381 }, "Calvin Cowen": { "weighted_excess_points": -32.58843743273456, "implied_statewide_margin_lift_points": -3.9922085158354004, "above_benchmark_counties": 0, "below_benchmark_counties": 39, "on_benchmark_counties": 0, "unique_counties": 29, "unique_markets": 6, "votes_scored": 122072.0, "breadth_balance": -1.0, "temporal_persistence": 0.0, "positive_window_weight_share": 0.0, "latest_window_lift_points": -4.52912524583757, "latest_window_vote_share": 0.41126548266596763, "latest_window_weight_share": 0.5491623978531142, "latest_window_matured_votes": 50204.0, "latest_window_matured_counties": 17, "prior_vote_weighted_lift_points": -3.574224927049575, "regime_reversal": false, "windows_scored": 3, "evidence": 1.0, "signal_score": -0.9999996628622113 }, "Darius L Mitchell": { "weighted_excess_points": -32.85034476768942, "implied_statewide_margin_lift_points": -4.023958989611201, "above_benchmark_counties": 0, "below_benchmark_counties": 39, "on_benchmark_counties": 0, "unique_counties": 29, "unique_markets": 6, "votes_scored": 122072.0, "breadth_balance": -1.0, "temporal_persistence": 0.0, "positive_window_weight_share": 0.0, "latest_window_lift_points": -4.581854671672886, "latest_window_vote_share": 0.41126548266596763, "latest_window_weight_share": 0.5491623978531142, "latest_window_matured_votes": 50204.0, "latest_window_matured_counties": 17, "prior_vote_weighted_lift_points": -3.5938649926542827, "regime_reversal": false, "windows_scored": 3, "evidence": 1.0, "signal_score": -0.9999996996241459 } }, "windows": [ { "from_snapshot": 5, "to_snapshot": 9, "from_filename": "5.json", "to_filename": "9.json", "span_snapshots": 4, "matured_votes_scored": 41624.0, "matured_counties_scored": 8, "window_margin_lift_points": { "Lindsey Graham": 2.031983233125956, "Mark Lynch": -2.327467871530747, "Thomas Keith Dismukes": -3.8819499295640636, "Pat Herrmann": -4.102187651321449, "Calvin Cowen": -4.048431621361891, "Darius L Mitchell": -4.09508165529744 } }, { "from_snapshot": 9, "to_snapshot": 13, "from_filename": "9.json", "to_filename": "13.json", "span_snapshots": 4, "matured_votes_scored": 30244.0, "matured_counties_scored": 14, "window_margin_lift_points": { "Lindsey Graham": 1.7589478452906757, "Mark Lynch": -1.9108948607330973, "Thomas Keith Dismukes": -2.7727786795960334, "Pat Herrmann": -2.8762883241784905, "Calvin Cowen": -2.921587066844052, "Darius L Mitchell": -2.9040540428507264 } }, { "from_snapshot": 13, "to_snapshot": 17, "from_filename": "13.json", "to_filename": "17.json", "span_snapshots": 4, "matured_votes_scored": 50204.0, "matured_counties_scored": 17, "window_margin_lift_points": { "Lindsey Graham": 2.2021373853408166, "Mark Lynch": -2.153815998232761, "Thomas Keith Dismukes": -4.406625171482164, "Pat Herrmann": -4.45393972026321, "Calvin Cowen": -4.52912524583757, "Darius L Mitchell": -4.581854671672886 } } ], "matured_votes_scored": 122072.0, "unique_matured_counties": 29, "average_reporting_advance_points": 26.391860131725544, "method_note": "V6.2 Completion Benchmark uses longer material county-maturation windows. Only this benchmark layer is eligible to influence the final Needle; the short-horizon Path Benchmark remains path-only." }, "path_benchmark_signal": { "available": true, "role": "path_only", "final_ensemble_weight": 0.0, "favored_candidate": "Lindsey Graham", "least_favored_candidate": "Darius L Mitchell", "evidence": 0.9486832980505138, "favored_signal_score": 0.9999997710996166, "favored_weighted_excess_points": 19.381362662044687, "favored_breadth_balance": 1.0, "candidates": { "Lindsey Graham": { "weighted_excess_points": 19.381362662044687, "above_benchmark_counties": 21, "below_benchmark_counties": 0, "on_benchmark_counties": 0, "unique_counties": 18, "unique_markets": 7, "votes_scored": 32566.0, "breadth_balance": 1.0, "evidence": 1.0, "signal_score": 0.9999997710996166 }, "Mark Lynch": { "weighted_excess_points": -19.872188510613608, "above_benchmark_counties": 0, "below_benchmark_counties": 21, "on_benchmark_counties": 0, "unique_counties": 18, "unique_markets": 7, "votes_scored": 32566.0, "breadth_balance": -1.0, "evidence": 1.0, "signal_score": -0.9999998454332127 }, "Thomas Keith Dismukes": { "weighted_excess_points": -32.30618760147928, "above_benchmark_counties": 0, "below_benchmark_counties": 21, "on_benchmark_counties": 0, "unique_counties": 18, "unique_markets": 7, "votes_scored": 32566.0, "breadth_balance": -1.0, "evidence": 1.0, "signal_score": -0.9999999999926023 }, "Pat Herrmann": { "weighted_excess_points": -33.70669373785805, "above_benchmark_counties": 0, "below_benchmark_counties": 21, "on_benchmark_counties": 0, "unique_counties": 18, "unique_markets": 7, "votes_scored": 32566.0, "breadth_balance": -1.0, "evidence": 1.0, "signal_score": -0.9999999999975873 }, "Calvin Cowen": { "weighted_excess_points": -33.88452432907539, "above_benchmark_counties": 0, "below_benchmark_counties": 21, "on_benchmark_counties": 0, "unique_counties": 18, "unique_markets": 7, "votes_scored": 32566.0, "breadth_balance": -1.0, "evidence": 1.0, "signal_score": -0.9999999999979072 }, "Darius L Mitchell": { "weighted_excess_points": -34.57011023459615, "above_benchmark_counties": 0, "below_benchmark_counties": 21, "on_benchmark_counties": 0, "unique_counties": 18, "unique_markets": 7, "votes_scored": 32566.0, "breadth_balance": -1.0, "evidence": 1.0, "signal_score": -0.9999999999987907 } }, "intervals": [ { "from_snapshot": 14, "to_snapshot": 15, "new_votes": 5757, "changed_counties": 6, "benchmark_observations_scored": 30 }, { "from_snapshot": 15, "to_snapshot": 16, "new_votes": 6067, "changed_counties": 4, "benchmark_observations_scored": 18 }, { "from_snapshot": 16, "to_snapshot": 17, "new_votes": 20765, "changed_counties": 13, "benchmark_observations_scored": 78 } ], "method_note": "V6 rebuilds county tie benchmarks and the preliminary expert gate exactly as they existed at each prior snapshot, then grades only later-arriving vote. Broad, repeated benchmark beats across independent counties are stronger evidence than one friendly dump." }, "crossover_consensus": { "available": false, "raw_leader": "Lindsey Graham", "candidate": null, "eligible": false, "score": 0.0, "independent_families": 0, "required_families": 2, "required_score": 0.075, "maturity_percent_estimate": 32.26804311972186, "candidates": {} }, "turning_point_trust_reallocation": { "available": false, "applied": false, "candidate": "Lindsey Graham", "raw_leader": "Lindsey Graham", "requested_transfer": 0.0, "applied_transfer": 0.0, "supporters": [], "contradictors": [], "override_caps": {} }, "reference_requested": "/var/www/html/afi_needle_lab/engine/references/library/sc_republican_library.json", "media_market_source": "/var/www/html/afi_needle_lab/engine/media_markets/sc_media_markets.js" }, { "label": "US Senate Special \u2014 Republican", "office": "US_Senate_Special", "party": "republican", "race_url": "https://data.americafirstinsight.com/Election2026/output/2026/SC/US_Senate_Special/00/republican/", "race_name": "South Carolina US Senate Special Republican Primary", "status": "ok", "target_pct": 30.0, "actual_vote_counted_pct": 29.938942141262697, "checkpoint_distance_points": 0.061057858737303405, "checkpoint_tolerance_points": 5.0, "snapshot": "16.json", "snapshot_number": 16, "timestamp": "2026-08-11T19:57:02.640778", "final_leader": "Darline Graham", "final_runner_up": "Ralph Norman", "final_margin_points": 8.081661155742303, "final_votes": 335092, "raw_current_leader": "Darline Graham", "raw_current_margin_points": 6.274732613657886, "raw_leader_correct": true, "v6_predicted_leader": "Darline Graham", "v6_projected_runner_up": "Russell Fry", "v6_projected_top_margin_points": 6.461722652771762, "v6_leader_correct": true, "v6_eventual_winner_margin_error_points": -1.619938502970541, "v6_absolute_margin_error_points": 1.619938502970541, "v6_winner_share_error_points": -1.9869005367443577, "v6_candidate_share_mae_points": 0.915080726361639, "v6_eventual_winner_mc_probability": 1.0, "v6_model_confidence": 0.777390170763598, "candidate_rank_summary": { "candidates_scored": 10, "exact_rank_calls": 6, "exact_rank_accuracy": 0.6, "mean_absolute_rank_error": 0.4, "projected_order": [ "Darline Graham", "Russell Fry", "Ralph Norman", "Mark Sanford", "Mark Lynch", "Danny Ford II", "Duke Buckner", "Glenda Gail Parker", "Mark Mcbride", "Samuel Sam Shepherd", "Mark McBride" ], "current_order": [ "Darline Graham", "Russell Fry", "Ralph Norman", "Mark Sanford", "Mark Lynch", "Danny Ford II", "Duke Buckner", "Glenda Gail Parker", "Mark Mcbride", "Samuel Sam Shepherd" ], "final_order_backtest_only": [ "Darline Graham", "Ralph Norman", "Russell Fry", "Mark Sanford", "Mark Lynch", "Danny Ford II", "Duke Buckner", "Glenda Gail Parker", "Samuel Sam Shepherd", "Mark McBride" ], "hidden_movement_candidates": [] }, "candidate_projection_breakdown": [ { "name": "Darline Graham", "party": "Republican", "current_votes": 30922, "current_rank": 1, "current_share_points": 30.82244350747087, "projected_rank": 1, "projected_share_points": 30.739634265638273, "projected_change_points": -0.08280924183259586, "projected_rank_movement": 0, "final_rank_backtest_only": 1, "final_share_points_backtest_only": 32.72653480238263, "share_error_points_backtest_only": -1.9869005367443577, "final_rank_movement_backtest_only": 0, "rank_error_backtest_only": 0, "rank_call_correct_backtest_only": true, "hidden_movement": false }, { "name": "Russell Fry", "party": "Republican", "current_votes": 24627, "current_rank": 2, "current_share_points": 24.547710893812987, "projected_rank": 2, "projected_share_points": 24.27791161286651, "projected_change_points": -0.26979928094647576, "projected_rank_movement": 0, "final_rank_backtest_only": 3, "final_share_points_backtest_only": 19.624162916452796, "share_error_points_backtest_only": 4.6537486964137145, 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null, "rank_error_backtest_only": null, "rank_call_correct_backtest_only": null, "hidden_movement": false }, { "name": "Samuel Sam Shepherd", "party": "Republican", "current_votes": 196, "current_rank": 10, "current_share_points": 0.1953689582648047, "projected_rank": 10, "projected_share_points": 0.19495409743940287, "projected_change_points": -0.00041486082540181934, "projected_rank_movement": 0, "final_rank_backtest_only": 9, "final_share_points_backtest_only": 0.2775357215331909, "share_error_points_backtest_only": -0.08258162409378803, "final_rank_movement_backtest_only": 1, "rank_error_backtest_only": 1, "rank_call_correct_backtest_only": false, "hidden_movement": false }, { "name": "Mark McBride", "party": "Republican", "current_votes": 0, "current_rank": null, "current_share_points": 0.0, "projected_rank": 11, "projected_share_points": 0.0, "projected_change_points": 0.0, "projected_rank_movement": null, "final_rank_backtest_only": 10, "final_share_points_backtest_only": 0.23903883112697408, "share_error_points_backtest_only": -0.23903883112697408, "final_rank_movement_backtest_only": null, "rank_error_backtest_only": 1, "rank_call_correct_backtest_only": false, "hidden_movement": false } ], "turning_point": { "available": true, "candidate": "Darline Graham", "raw_leader": "Darline Graham", "raw_top_two_margin_points": 6.274732613657886, "raw_gap_to_candidate_points": 0.0, "actionable": false, "score": 0.7250933204904518, "checks": { "serious_data": true, "completion_direction": true, "regime_reversal": true, "latest_window_dominates": true, "path_confirmation": true, "independent_final_expert": true, "raw_dead_heat_or_same_leader": true }, "failed_checks": [], "latest_window_lift_points": 0.5440840786166761, "latest_window_vote_share": 0.5098578159874348, "latest_window_weight_share": 0.5951674418678248, "prior_vote_weighted_lift_points": -0.1011551273302854, "completion_signal_score": 0.6101468147691301, "completion_evidence": 1.0, "path_signal_score": 0.8035031350942659, "path_breadth_balance": 0.7222222222222222, "path_evidence": 0.7905694150420949, "independent_supporters": [ { "model": "v3", "family": "remaining", "quality": 0.5746738705035164, "evidence": 1.0, "weight": 0.0, "projected_leader": "Darline Graham" }, { "model": "histgeo", "family": "historical", "quality": 0.6505268680249782, "evidence": 1.0, "weight": 0.0, "projected_leader": "Darline Graham" }, { "model": "batchbias", "family": "reporting_order", "quality": 0.6612757966490748, "evidence": 1.0, "weight": 0.0, "projected_leader": "Darline Graham" } ], "independent_families": 3, "score_parts": { "maturity": 0.20088315309896854, "latest_vote_dominance": 0.3990521065828989, "latest_weight_dominance": 0.5947965116739048, "latest_lift": 1.0, "path": 1.0, "path_breadth": 1.0, "independent": 1.0 }, "method_note": "Turning-Point Consensus requires the newest material Completion window to dominate the matured vote mass, reverse the older regime, and receive independent confirmation from the Path Benchmark plus at least one validated final-oriented expert. Path itself still has 0% direct final weight." }, "completion_benchmark_signal": { "available": true, "role": "final_completion", "favored_candidate": "Darline Graham", "evidence": 1.0, "base_evidence": 1.0, "favored_signal_score": 0.6101468147691301, "favored_weighted_excess_points": 3.067949923167325, "favored_implied_statewide_margin_lift_points": 0.35387345301209827, "favored_breadth_balance": 0.14634146341463414, "favored_temporal_persistence": 0.8554194393119665, "favored_latest_window_lift_points": 0.5440840786166761, "favored_latest_window_vote_share": 0.5098578159874348, "favored_latest_window_weight_share": 0.5951674418678248, "favored_prior_vote_weighted_lift_points": -0.1011551273302854, "favored_regime_reversal": true, "directional": true, "persistent_actionable_pre_maturity": true, "actionable_pre_maturity": true, "validation_quality": 0.9566258317935898, "validation_mae_points": 0.35, "candidates": { "Darline Graham": { "weighted_excess_points": 3.067949923167325, 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0.5098578159874348, "latest_window_weight_share": 0.5951674418678248, "latest_window_matured_votes": 49342.0, "latest_window_matured_counties": 13, "prior_vote_weighted_lift_points": -0.1270707217954126, "regime_reversal": false, "windows_scored": 3, "evidence": 1.0, "signal_score": -0.6504181800839469 }, "Mark Sanford": { "weighted_excess_points": -8.989535118388998, "implied_statewide_margin_lift_points": -1.0906370425020444, "above_benchmark_counties": 3, "below_benchmark_counties": 37, "on_benchmark_counties": 1, "unique_counties": 31, "unique_markets": 7, "votes_scored": 96776.0, "breadth_balance": -0.8292682926829268, "temporal_persistence": 0.0, "positive_window_weight_share": 0.0, "latest_window_lift_points": -1.1692868342661262, "latest_window_vote_share": 0.5098578159874348, "latest_window_weight_share": 0.5951674418678248, "latest_window_matured_votes": 49342.0, "latest_window_matured_counties": 13, "prior_vote_weighted_lift_points": -1.0608792524977084, "regime_reversal": false, "windows_scored": 3, "evidence": 1.0, "signal_score": -0.9560502151179837 }, "Mark Lynch": { "weighted_excess_points": -14.316776326899355, "implied_statewide_margin_lift_points": -1.7452468101519765, "above_benchmark_counties": 0, "below_benchmark_counties": 41, "on_benchmark_counties": 0, "unique_counties": 31, "unique_markets": 7, "votes_scored": 96776.0, "breadth_balance": -1.0, "temporal_persistence": 0.0, "positive_window_weight_share": 0.0, "latest_window_lift_points": -1.827903743565546, "latest_window_vote_share": 0.5098578159874348, "latest_window_weight_share": 0.5951674418678248, "latest_window_matured_votes": 49342.0, "latest_window_matured_counties": 13, "prior_vote_weighted_lift_points": -1.5964624123692468, "regime_reversal": false, "windows_scored": 3, "evidence": 1.0, "signal_score": -0.9988018914542455 }, "Danny Ford II": { "weighted_excess_points": -17.201104224594733, "implied_statewide_margin_lift_points": -2.137138107622156, "above_benchmark_counties": 0, "below_benchmark_counties": 41, "on_benchmark_counties": 0, "unique_counties": 31, "unique_markets": 7, "votes_scored": 96776.0, "breadth_balance": -1.0, "temporal_persistence": 0.0, "positive_window_weight_share": 0.0, "latest_window_lift_points": -2.2469078464597274, "latest_window_vote_share": 0.5098578159874348, "latest_window_weight_share": 0.5951674418678248, "latest_window_matured_votes": 49342.0, "latest_window_matured_counties": 13, "prior_vote_weighted_lift_points": -1.934730864605004, "regime_reversal": false, "windows_scored": 3, "evidence": 1.0, "signal_score": -0.9997126180404491 }, "Duke Buckner": { "weighted_excess_points": -16.788660888823223, "implied_statewide_margin_lift_points": -2.0910078787856734, "above_benchmark_counties": 0, "below_benchmark_counties": 41, "on_benchmark_counties": 0, "unique_counties": 31, "unique_markets": 7, "votes_scored": 96776.0, "breadth_balance": -1.0, "temporal_persistence": 0.0, "positive_window_weight_share": 0.0, "latest_window_lift_points": -2.194658437305486, "latest_window_vote_share": 0.5098578159874348, "latest_window_weight_share": 0.5951674418678248, "latest_window_matured_votes": 49342.0, "latest_window_matured_counties": 13, "prior_vote_weighted_lift_points": -1.9162541081035982, "regime_reversal": false, "windows_scored": 3, "evidence": 1.0, "signal_score": -0.9996599905130014 }, "Glenda Gail Parker": { "weighted_excess_points": -17.474876393543973, "implied_statewide_margin_lift_points": -2.1666057955122335, "above_benchmark_counties": 0, "below_benchmark_counties": 41, "on_benchmark_counties": 0, "unique_counties": 31, "unique_markets": 7, "votes_scored": 96776.0, "breadth_balance": -1.0, "temporal_persistence": 0.0, "positive_window_weight_share": 0.0, "latest_window_lift_points": -2.2768630647108687, "latest_window_vote_share": 0.5098578159874348, "latest_window_weight_share": 0.5951674418678248, "latest_window_matured_votes": 49342.0, "latest_window_matured_counties": 13, "prior_vote_weighted_lift_points": -1.9613124536665723, "regime_reversal": false, "windows_scored": 3, "evidence": 1.0, "signal_score": -0.9997418853022991 }, "Mark Mcbride": { "weighted_excess_points": -17.732010558178796, "implied_statewide_margin_lift_points": -2.2181512828454912, "above_benchmark_counties": 0, "below_benchmark_counties": 41, "on_benchmark_counties": 0, "unique_counties": 31, "unique_markets": 7, "votes_scored": 96776.0, "breadth_balance": -1.0, "temporal_persistence": 0.0, "positive_window_weight_share": 0.0, "latest_window_lift_points": -2.3459893314099234, "latest_window_vote_share": 0.5098578159874348, "latest_window_weight_share": 0.5951674418678248, "latest_window_matured_votes": 49342.0, "latest_window_matured_counties": 13, "prior_vote_weighted_lift_points": -1.974063822445731, "regime_reversal": false, "windows_scored": 3, "evidence": 1.0, "signal_score": -0.9997859980237264 }, "Samuel Sam Shepherd": { "weighted_excess_points": -17.267707894890567, "implied_statewide_margin_lift_points": -2.1680964918397616, "above_benchmark_counties": 0, "below_benchmark_counties": 41, "on_benchmark_counties": 0, "unique_counties": 31, "unique_markets": 7, "votes_scored": 96776.0, "breadth_balance": -1.0, "temporal_persistence": 0.0, "positive_window_weight_share": 0.0, "latest_window_lift_points": -2.2643704452122937, "latest_window_vote_share": 0.5098578159874348, "latest_window_weight_share": 0.5951674418678248, "latest_window_matured_votes": 49342.0, "latest_window_matured_counties": 13, "prior_vote_weighted_lift_points": -1.9743450210980689, "regime_reversal": false, "windows_scored": 3, "evidence": 1.0, "signal_score": -0.9997431604428585 } }, "windows": [ { "from_snapshot": 4, "to_snapshot": 8, "from_filename": "4.json", "to_filename": "8.json", "span_snapshots": 4, "matured_votes_scored": 26206.0, "matured_counties_scored": 13, "window_margin_lift_points": { "Darline Graham": -0.5029821347968546, "Russell Fry": -0.7405002078064983, "Ralph Norman": -0.09636409440711668, "Mark Sanford": -1.2576120584487833, "Mark Lynch": -1.5339949896413148, "Danny Ford II": -1.840732119270287, "Duke Buckner": -1.865000402788165, "Glenda Gail Parker": -1.8623435902374503, "Mark Mcbride": -1.845431197374139, "Samuel Sam Shepherd": -1.8547204160527153 } }, { "from_snapshot": 8, "to_snapshot": 12, "from_filename": "8.json", "to_filename": "12.json", "span_snapshots": 4, "matured_votes_scored": 21228.0, "matured_counties_scored": 15, "window_margin_lift_points": { "Darline Graham": 0.3949009569767107, "Russell Fry": -1.1579310793496354, "Ralph Norman": -0.16497810248778508, "Mark Sanford": -0.8180122884523968, "Mark Lynch": -1.6735785457783379, "Danny Ford II": -2.0507724662745725, "Duke Buckner": -1.9795268894064169, "Glenda Gail Parker": -2.0834896740841136, "Mark Mcbride": -2.1328610041221086, "Samuel Sam Shepherd": -2.122021787624286 } }, { "from_snapshot": 12, "to_snapshot": 16, "from_filename": "12.json", "to_filename": "16.json", "span_snapshots": 4, "matured_votes_scored": 49342.0, "matured_counties_scored": 13, "window_margin_lift_points": { "Darline Graham": 0.5440840786166761, "Russell Fry": -0.7870693341990638, "Ralph Norman": -0.42749865136445886, "Mark Sanford": -1.1692868342661262, "Mark Lynch": -1.827903743565546, "Danny Ford II": -2.2469078464597274, "Duke Buckner": -2.194658437305486, "Glenda Gail Parker": -2.2768630647108687, "Mark Mcbride": -2.3459893314099234, "Samuel Sam Shepherd": -2.2643704452122937 } } ], "matured_votes_scored": 96776.0, "unique_matured_counties": 31, "average_reporting_advance_points": 50.82761304455651, "method_note": "V6.2 Completion Benchmark uses longer material county-maturation windows. Only this benchmark layer is eligible to influence the final Needle; the short-horizon Path Benchmark remains path-only." }, "path_benchmark_signal": { "available": true, "role": "path_only", "final_ensemble_weight": 0.0, "favored_candidate": "Darline Graham", "least_favored_candidate": "Samuel Sam Shepherd", "evidence": 0.7905694150420949, "favored_signal_score": 0.8035031350942659, "favored_weighted_excess_points": 5.568112760307174, "favored_breadth_balance": 0.7222222222222222, "candidates": { "Darline Graham": { "weighted_excess_points": 5.568112760307174, "above_benchmark_counties": 14, "below_benchmark_counties": 1, "on_benchmark_counties": 3, "unique_counties": 15, "unique_markets": 6, "votes_scored": 45276.0, "breadth_balance": 0.7222222222222222, "evidence": 0.9128709291752769, "signal_score": 0.8035031350942659 }, "Russell Fry": { "weighted_excess_points": -4.02165384316852, "above_benchmark_counties": 5, "below_benchmark_counties": 13, "on_benchmark_counties": 0, "unique_counties": 15, "unique_markets": 6, "votes_scored": 45276.0, "breadth_balance": -0.4444444444444444, "evidence": 0.9128709291752769, "signal_score": -0.6765517632810285 }, "Ralph Norman": { "weighted_excess_points": -6.302879273582636, "above_benchmark_counties": 2, "below_benchmark_counties": 16, "on_benchmark_counties": 0, "unique_counties": 15, "unique_markets": 6, "votes_scored": 45276.0, "breadth_balance": -0.7777777777777778, "evidence": 0.9128709291752769, "signal_score": -0.8285198056540435 }, "Mark Sanford": { "weighted_excess_points": -9.035997342712857, "above_benchmark_counties": 1, "below_benchmark_counties": 17, "on_benchmark_counties": 0, "unique_counties": 15, "unique_markets": 6, "votes_scored": 45276.0, "breadth_balance": -0.8888888888888888, "evidence": 0.9128709291752769, "signal_score": -0.8735069700500849 }, "Mark Lynch": { "weighted_excess_points": -13.930392458917787, "above_benchmark_counties": 0, "below_benchmark_counties": 18, "on_benchmark_counties": 0, "unique_counties": 15, "unique_markets": 6, "votes_scored": 45276.0, "breadth_balance": -1.0, "evidence": 0.9128709291752769, "signal_score": -0.9128545643744878 }, "Danny Ford II": { "weighted_excess_points": -16.49099704363049, "above_benchmark_counties": 1, "below_benchmark_counties": 17, "on_benchmark_counties": 0, "unique_counties": 15, "unique_markets": 6, "votes_scored": 45276.0, "breadth_balance": -0.8888888888888888, "evidence": 0.9128709291752769, "signal_score": -0.8743253799988971 }, "Duke Buckner": { "weighted_excess_points": -15.642247961081006, "above_benchmark_counties": 0, "below_benchmark_counties": 18, "on_benchmark_counties": 0, "unique_counties": 15, "unique_markets": 6, "votes_scored": 45276.0, "breadth_balance": -1.0, "evidence": 0.9128709291752769, "signal_score": -0.9128667685760254 }, "Glenda Gail Parker": { "weighted_excess_points": -16.516855902646583, "above_benchmark_counties": 0, "below_benchmark_counties": 17, "on_benchmark_counties": 1, "unique_counties": 15, "unique_markets": 6, "votes_scored": 45276.0, "breadth_balance": -0.9444444444444444, "evidence": 0.9128709291752769, "signal_score": -0.8935971428149633 }, "Mark Mcbride": { "weighted_excess_points": -16.941921430439578, "above_benchmark_counties": 0, "below_benchmark_counties": 17, "on_benchmark_counties": 1, "unique_counties": 15, "unique_markets": 6, "votes_scored": 45276.0, "breadth_balance": -0.9444444444444444, "evidence": 0.9128709291752769, "signal_score": -0.8935977385883715 }, "Samuel Sam Shepherd": { "weighted_excess_points": -16.111359356542497, "above_benchmark_counties": 0, "below_benchmark_counties": 18, "on_benchmark_counties": 0, "unique_counties": 15, "unique_markets": 6, "votes_scored": 45276.0, "breadth_balance": -1.0, "evidence": 0.9128709291752769, "signal_score": -0.9128680704633491 } }, "intervals": [ { "from_snapshot": 13, "to_snapshot": 14, "new_votes": 36458, "changed_counties": 8, "benchmark_observations_scored": 80 }, { "from_snapshot": 14, "to_snapshot": 15, "new_votes": 7533, "changed_counties": 9, "benchmark_observations_scored": 90 }, { "from_snapshot": 15, "to_snapshot": 16, "new_votes": 1285, "changed_counties": 1, "benchmark_observations_scored": 10 } ], "method_note": "V6 rebuilds county tie benchmarks and the preliminary expert gate exactly as they existed at each prior snapshot, then grades only later-arriving vote. Broad, repeated benchmark beats across independent counties are stronger evidence than one friendly dump." }, "crossover_consensus": { "available": false, "raw_leader": "Darline Graham", "candidate": null, "eligible": false, "score": 0.0, "independent_families": 0, "required_families": 2, "required_score": 0.075, "maturity_percent_estimate": 34.01766306197937, "candidates": {} }, "turning_point_trust_reallocation": { "available": false, "applied": false, "candidate": "Darline Graham", "raw_leader": "Darline Graham", "requested_transfer": 0.0, "applied_transfer": 0.0, "supporters": [], "contradictors": [], "override_caps": {} }, "reference_requested": "/var/www/html/afi_needle_lab/engine/references/library/sc_republican_library.json", "media_market_source": "/var/www/html/afi_needle_lab/engine/media_markets/sc_media_markets.js" } ], "method_note": "All supplied contested statewide races are evaluated at one common target percentage of eventual vote. Each race uses the nearest historical snapshot within the ordinary checkpoint tolerance. latest.json is scoring-only." }