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Path itself still has 0% direct final weight." }, "completion_benchmark_signal": { "available": true, "role": "final_completion", "favored_candidate": "Darline Graham", "evidence": 1.0, "base_evidence": 1.0, "favored_signal_score": 0.7440599415816004, "favored_weighted_excess_points": 4.657357519716666, "favored_implied_statewide_margin_lift_points": 0.3516985676558498, "favored_breadth_balance": 0.5, "favored_temporal_persistence": 1.0, "favored_latest_window_lift_points": 0.4628897118636907, "favored_latest_window_vote_share": 0.5503801764366754, "favored_latest_window_weight_share": 0.6078833536639738, "favored_prior_vote_weighted_lift_points": 0.1839256262612949, "favored_regime_reversal": false, "directional": true, "persistent_actionable_pre_maturity": true, "actionable_pre_maturity": true, "validation_quality": 1.0, "validation_mae_points": 0.35, "candidates": { "Darline Graham": { "weighted_excess_points": 4.657357519716666, "implied_statewide_margin_lift_points": 0.3516985676558498, "above_benchmark_counties": 43, "below_benchmark_counties": 14, "on_benchmark_counties": 1, "unique_counties": 34, "unique_markets": 7, "votes_scored": 91931.0, "breadth_balance": 0.5, "temporal_persistence": 1.0, "positive_window_weight_share": 1.0, "latest_window_lift_points": 0.4628897118636907, "latest_window_vote_share": 0.5503801764366754, "latest_window_weight_share": 0.6078833536639738, "latest_window_matured_votes": 50597.0, "latest_window_matured_counties": 27, "prior_vote_weighted_lift_points": 0.1839256262612949, "regime_reversal": false, "windows_scored": 3, "evidence": 1.0, "signal_score": 0.7440599415816004 }, "Ralph Norman": { "weighted_excess_points": -4.657357519716663, "implied_statewide_margin_lift_points": -0.35169856765584934, "above_benchmark_counties": 14, "below_benchmark_counties": 43, "on_benchmark_counties": 1, "unique_counties": 34, "unique_markets": 7, "votes_scored": 91931.0, "breadth_balance": -0.5, "temporal_persistence": 0.0, "positive_window_weight_share": 0.0, "latest_window_lift_points": -0.46288971186369005, "latest_window_vote_share": 0.5503801764366754, "latest_window_weight_share": 0.6078833536639738, "latest_window_matured_votes": 50597.0, "latest_window_matured_counties": 27, "prior_vote_weighted_lift_points": -0.18392562626129486, "regime_reversal": false, "windows_scored": 3, "evidence": 1.0, "signal_score": -0.7440599415816 } }, "windows": [ { "from_snapshot": 6, "to_snapshot": 10, "from_filename": "6.json", "to_filename": "10.json", "span_snapshots": 4, "matured_votes_scored": 19462.0, "matured_counties_scored": 14, "window_margin_lift_points": { "Darline Graham": 0.2001229580804452, "Ralph Norman": -0.2001229580804454 } }, { "from_snapshot": 10, "to_snapshot": 14, "from_filename": "10.json", "to_filename": "14.json", "span_snapshots": 4, "matured_votes_scored": 21872.0, "matured_counties_scored": 17, "window_margin_lift_points": { "Darline Graham": 0.1695130223903959, "Ralph Norman": -0.16951302239039567 } }, { "from_snapshot": 14, "to_snapshot": 18, "from_filename": "14.json", "to_filename": "18.json", "span_snapshots": 4, "matured_votes_scored": 50597.0, "matured_counties_scored": 27, "window_margin_lift_points": { "Darline Graham": 0.4628897118636907, "Ralph Norman": -0.46288971186369005 } } ], "matured_votes_scored": 91931.0, "unique_matured_counties": 34, "average_reporting_advance_points": 21.315455178340276, "method_note": "V6.2 Completion Benchmark uses longer material county-maturation windows. Only this benchmark layer is eligible to influence the final Needle; the short-horizon Path Benchmark remains path-only." }, "path_benchmark_signal": { "available": true, "role": "path_only", "final_ensemble_weight": 0.0, "favored_candidate": "Darline Graham", "least_favored_candidate": "Ralph Norman", "evidence": 1.0, "favored_signal_score": 0.6888989830593574, "favored_weighted_excess_points": 3.8472277295016095, "favored_breadth_balance": 0.325, "candidates": { "Darline Graham": { "weighted_excess_points": 3.8472277295016095, "above_benchmark_counties": 25, "below_benchmark_counties": 12, "on_benchmark_counties": 3, "unique_counties": 26, "unique_markets": 6, "votes_scored": 45250.0, "breadth_balance": 0.325, "evidence": 1.0, "signal_score": 0.6888989830593574 }, "Ralph Norman": { "weighted_excess_points": -3.8472277295016055, "above_benchmark_counties": 12, "below_benchmark_counties": 25, "on_benchmark_counties": 3, "unique_counties": 26, "unique_markets": 6, "votes_scored": 45250.0, "breadth_balance": -0.325, "evidence": 1.0, "signal_score": -0.6888989830593572 } }, "intervals": [ { "from_snapshot": 15, "to_snapshot": 16, "new_votes": 5042, "changed_counties": 8, "benchmark_observations_scored": 16 }, { "from_snapshot": 16, "to_snapshot": 17, "new_votes": 27497, "changed_counties": 22, "benchmark_observations_scored": 44 }, { "from_snapshot": 17, "to_snapshot": 18, "new_votes": 12711, "changed_counties": 10, "benchmark_observations_scored": 20 } ], "method_note": "V6 rebuilds county tie benchmarks and the preliminary expert gate exactly as they existed at each prior snapshot, then grades only later-arriving vote. Broad, repeated benchmark beats across independent counties are stronger evidence than one friendly dump." }, "crossover_consensus": { "available": false, "raw_leader": "Darline Graham", "candidate": null, "eligible": false, "score": 0.0, "independent_families": 0, "required_families": 2, "required_score": 0.075, "maturity_percent_estimate": 30.072145801880946, "candidates": {} }, "turning_point_trust_reallocation": { "available": false, "applied": false, "candidate": "Darline Graham", "raw_leader": "Darline Graham", "requested_transfer": 0.0, "applied_transfer": 0.0, "supporters": [], "contradictors": [], "override_caps": {} }, "reference_requested": "/var/www/html/afi_needle_lab/engine/references/library/sc_republican_library.json", "media_market_source": "/var/www/html/afi_needle_lab/engine/media_markets/sc_media_markets.js" }, { "label": "Special Senate Runoff \u2014 Republican", "office": "Special_Senate_Runoff", "party": "republican", "race_url": "https://data.americafirstinsight.com/Election2026/output/2026/SC/Runoff/Special_Senate_Runoff/00/republican/", "status": "error", "error": "No checkpoint row was produced." } ], "method_note": "All supplied contested statewide races are evaluated at one common target percentage of eventual vote. Each race uses the nearest historical snapshot within the ordinary checkpoint tolerance. latest.json is scoring-only." }